WorldWideScience

Sample records for warming factors modelled

  1. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  2. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  3. Warm anisotropic inflationary universe model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of warm inflation using vector fields in the background of a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I model of the universe. We formulate the field equations, and slow-roll and perturbation parameters (scalar and tensor power spectra as well as their spectral indices) in the slow-roll approximation. We evaluate all these parameters in terms of the directional Hubble parameter during the intermediate and logamediate inflationary regimes by taking the dissipation factor as a function of the scalar field as well as a constant. In each case, we calculate the observational parameter of interest, i.e., the tensor-scalar ratio in terms of the inflaton. The graphical behavior of these parameters shows that the anisotropic model is also compatible with WMAP7 and the Planck observational data. (orig.)

  4. Warm anisotropic inflationary universe model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2014-02-15

    This paper is devoted to the study of warm inflation using vector fields in the background of a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I model of the universe. We formulate the field equations, and slow-roll and perturbation parameters (scalar and tensor power spectra as well as their spectral indices) in the slow-roll approximation. We evaluate all these parameters in terms of the directional Hubble parameter during the intermediate and logamediate inflationary regimes by taking the dissipation factor as a function of the scalar field as well as a constant. In each case, we calculate the observational parameter of interest, i.e., the tensor-scalar ratio in terms of the inflaton. The graphical behavior of these parameters shows that the anisotropic model is also compatible with WMAP7 and the Planck observational data. (orig.)

  5. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  6. Qualitative models of global warming amplifiers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milošević, U.; Bredeweg, B.; de Kleer, J.; Forbus, K.D.

    2010-01-01

    There is growing interest from ecological experts to create qualitative models of phenomena for which numerical information is sparse or missing. We present a number of successful models in the field of environmental science, namely, the domain of global warming. The motivation behind the effort is

  7. Global-warming forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    In spite of an annual man-made quantity of about 20 billion tons, carbon dioxide has remained a trace gas in the atmosphere (350 ppm at present). The reliability of model calculations which forecast temperatures is dicussed in view of the world-wide increase in carbon dioxides. Computer simulations reveal a general, serious threat to the future of mankind. (DG) [de

  8. Global warming factor of municipal solid waste management in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentil, Emmanuel; Clavreul, Julie; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    The global warming factor (GWF; CO2-eq. tonne—1 waste) performance of municipal waste management has been investigated for six representative European Member States: Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Poland and the United Kingdom. The study integrated European waste statistical data for 2007...

  9. Development of models for warm prestressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stonesifer, R.B.; Rybicki, E.F.

    1987-01-01

    The objective of this project is to evaluate available mathematical models and associated fracture criteria for predicting warm prestress (WPS) effects. A verified model of the WPS phenomenon is required before credit for improved low temperature toughness can be taken in analysis of postulated accident scenarios such as pressurized thermal shock. The primary basis of evaluation is finite-element analysis using a highly refined mesh and work hardening, modeled by a piece-wise linear fit of stress-strain data. The criteria being evaluated are J/sub e/ (Chell, et al.), critical stress (Curry), T*/sub p/ (Atluri) and a criterion introduced herein which is related to differential CTOD and denoted dCTOD*FLOW. The finite element model is used to simulate a load-unload-cool-fracture (LUCF) type of WPS cycle for which experimental results are available. The various models and criteria are evaluated in terms of their agreement with the finite-element results such as crack opening displacements, stresses and plastic-zone sizes, and in terms of their ability to predict fracture load. The nonfinite-element-based models of Chell and Curry are used to simulate 32 additional WPS experiments so as to further assess the relative merits of the models and the J/sub e/, critical stress, and dCTOD*FLOW fracture criteria. While K/sub Ic/ scatter band behavior allows significant latitude for manipulation of model predictions, which impedes critical evaluation of the models and criteria, both models and all three fracture criteria are found to predict WPS behavior which is qualitatively consistent with experimental data

  10. Consistency of the tachyon warm inflationary universe models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiao-Min; Zhu, Jian-Yang

    2014-01-01

    This study concerns the consistency of the tachyon warm inflationary models. A linear stability analysis is performed to find the slow-roll conditions, characterized by the potential slow-roll (PSR) parameters, for the existence of a tachyon warm inflationary attractor in the system. The PSR parameters in the tachyon warm inflationary models are redefined. Two cases, an exponential potential and an inverse power-law potential, are studied, when the dissipative coefficient Γ = Γ 0 and Γ = Γ(φ), respectively. A crucial condition is obtained for a tachyon warm inflationary model characterized by the Hubble slow-roll (HSR) parameter ε H , and the condition is extendable to some other inflationary models as well. A proper number of e-folds is obtained in both cases of the tachyon warm inflation, in contrast to existing works. It is also found that a constant dissipative coefficient (Γ = Γ 0 ) is usually not a suitable assumption for a warm inflationary model

  11. Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Resources for Small Businesses and Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief overview of how EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) can be used by small businesses and organizations. The page includes a brief summary of uses of WARM for the audience and links to other resources.

  12. Sneutrino warm inflation in the minimal supersymmetric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun

    2005-01-01

    The model of RH neutrino fields coupled to the MSSM is shown to yield a large parameter regime of warm inflation. In the strong dissipative regime, it is shown that inflation, driven by a single sneutrino field, occurs with all field amplitudes below the Planck scale. Analysis is also made of leptogenesis, neutrino mass generation and gravitino constraints. A new warm inflation scenario is purposed in which one scalar field drives a period of warm inflation and a second field drives a subsequent phase of reheating. Such a model is able to reduce the final temperature after inflation, thus helping to mitigate gravitino constraints

  13. Constructing warm inflationary model in brane–antibrane system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Setare, M.R., E-mail: rezakord@ipm.ir [Department of Science, Campus of Bijar, University of Kurdistan, Bijar (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sepehri, A., E-mail: alireza.sepehri@uk.ac.ir [Faculty of Physics, Shahid Bahonar University, P.O. Box 76175, Kerman (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Kamali, V., E-mail: Vkamali@basu.ac.ir [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, 65178 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2014-07-30

    Recently, various observational data predicted a possibility that inflation may naturally occur in a warm region. In this scenario, radiation is produced during the inflation epoch and reheating is avoided. The main question arises as to what is the origin of warm inflation in 4D universe? We answer this question in brane–antibrane system. We propose a model that allows all cosmological parameters like the scale factor a, the Hubble parameter H and phantom energy density depend on the equation of state parameter in transverse dimension between two branes. Thus, an enhancement in these parameters can be a signature of some evolutions in extra dimension. In our model, the expansion of 4D universe is controlled by the separation distance between branes and evolves from non-phantom phase to phantom one. Consequently, phantom-dominated era of the universe accelerates and ends up in big-rip singularity. Also, we show that as the tachyon potential increases, the effect of interaction between branes on the 4D universe expansion becomes systematically more effective, because at higher energies there exist more channels for flowing energy from extra dimension to other four dimensions. Finally, we test our model against WMAP and Planck data and obtain the ripping time. According to experimental data, N≃50 case leads to n{sub s}≃0.96, where N and n{sub s} are the number e-folds and the spectral index respectively. This standard case may be found in 0.01

  14. Thomas-Fermi model of warm nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchler, J.R.; Epstein, R.I.

    1980-01-01

    The average nuclear level density of spherical nuclei is computed with a finite temperature Thomas-Fermi model. More than 80% of the low energy nuclear excitations can be accounted for in terms of this statistical model. The relevance for stellar collapse is discussed

  15. Shell model for warm rotating nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuo, M.; Yoshida, K. [Kyoto Univ. (Japan); Dossing, T. [Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)] [and others

    1996-12-31

    Utilizing a shell model which combines the cranked Nilsson mean-field and the residual surface and volume delta two-body forces, the authors discuss the onset of rotational damping in normal- and super-deformed nuclei. Calculation for a typical normal deformed nucleus {sup 168}Yb indicates that the rotational damping sets in at around 0.8 MeV above the yrast line, and about 30 rotational bands of various length exists at a given rotational frequency, in overall agreement with experimental findings. It is predicted that the onset of rotational damping changes significantly in different superdeformed nuclei due to the variety of the shell gaps and single-particle orbits associated with the superdeformed mean-field.

  16. Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  17. Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2018-03-01

    As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

  18. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  19. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. The Influence of Global Warming Science Views and Sociocultural Factors on Willingness to Mitigate Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Benjamin C.

    2015-01-01

    The science education field readily recognizes that perceptions about science's claims and nature influence socioscientific decision making. However, sociocultural factors may overshadow these perceptions when people are forced to make personally impacting choices contextualized within actual socioscientific issues. This investigation…

  1. [Effect of Warm Acupuncture on the Levels of Serum Immunoglobulin E, Interleukin-1 β and Tumor Necrosis Factor-α in Rats with Allergic Rhinitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Xian-Li; Tian, Yong-Ping; Luo, Hai-Yan; Zhao, Yao-Dong; Liu, Xiang-Yi; Jiang, Ying; Ma, Cheng-Xu; Wang, Ming-Juan; Liu, Min

    2018-01-25

    To observe the effect of warm acupuncture on behavior and contents of serum immunoglobulin E(IgE), interleukin-1 β(IL-1 β) and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α) in allergic rhinitis(AR) rats, so as to explore its mechanism underlying improving AR. Forty Wistar rats were randomly divided into four groups: control group, model group, medication group and warm acupuncture group(10 rats/group). The AR model was established by intraperitoneal injection of sensitization and nasal drip. The rats in the medication group were given fluticasone propionate nasal spray, daily for 10 days. Warm acupuncture was applied to "Fengchi"(GB 20), "Yintang"(GV 29), "Yingxiang"(LI 20) for 60 seconds, once daily for 10 days. Behavioral scores were used to evaluate behavioral changes in rats. Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to detect the expression levels of serum IgE, IL-1 β and TNF-α. Behavioral scores of the model group were significantly higher than those of the control group 0, 3, 7 and 10 days after modeling ( P warm acupuncture group were lower than those of the model group ( P warm acupuncture group than in the medication group ( P warm acupuncture groups after treatment in comparison with the model group ( P warm acupuncture group ( P Warm acupuncture can improve the symptoms of AR rats, which may be associated to its effect in inhibiting the expression of serum IgE, IL-1 β and TNF-α.

  2. Modeling studies of the Indo-Pacific warm pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, T.P.; Schneider N.; Tyree, M.; Ritchie, J.; Ramanathan, V.; Sherwood, S.; Zhang, G.; Flatau, M.

    1994-01-01

    A wide variety of modeling studies are being conducted, aimed at understanding the interactions of clouds, radiation, and the ocean in the region of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the flywheel of the global climate system. These studies are designed to understand the important physical processes operating in the ocean and atmosphere in the region. A stand alone Atmospheric GCM, forced by observed sea surface temperature, has been used for several purposes. One study with the AGCM shows the high sensitivity of the tropical circulation to variations in mid- to high-level clouds. A stand-alone ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is being used to study the relative role of shortwave radiation changes in the buoyancy flux forcing of the upper ocean. Complete studies of the warm pool can only be conducted with a full coupled ocean/atmosphere model. The latest version of the Hamburg CGCM produces realistic simulations of the ocean/atmosphere system in the Indo-Pacific without use of a flux correction scheme

  3. Formability models for warm sheet metal forming analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Sen

    Several closed form models for the prediction of strain space sheet metal formability as a function of temperature and strain rate are proposed. The proposed models require only failure strain information from the uniaxial tension test at an elevated temperature setting and failure strain information from the traditionally defined strain space forming limit diagram at room temperature, thereby featuring the advantage of offering a full forming limit description without having to carry out expensive experimental studies for multiple modes of deformation under the elevated temperature. The Power law, Voce, and Johnson-Cook hardening models are considered along with the yield criterions of Hill's 48 and Logan-Hosford yield criteria. Acceptable correlations between the theory and experiment are reported for all the models under a plane strain condition. Among all the proposed models, the model featuring Johnson-Cook hardening model and Logan-Hosford yield behavior (LHJC model) was shown to best correlate with experiment. The sensitivity of the model with respect to various forming parameters is discussed. This work is significant to those aiming to incorporate closed-form formability models directly into numerical simulation programs for the purpose of design and analysis of products manufactured through the warm sheet metal forming process. An improvement based upon Swift's diffuse necking theory, is suggested in order to enhance the reliability of the model for biaxial stretch conditions. Theory relating to this improvement is provided in Appendix B.

  4. Hemispheric Asymmetry of Global Warming Explained by a Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funke, C. S.; Alexeev, V. A.

    2017-12-01

    Polar Amplification, the process of amplified warming at high latitudes, manifests itself differently in the Arctic and Antarctic. Not only is the temperature increase in the Arctic more pronounced than in the Antarctic but the dramatic sea ice decline in the Arctic over the last few decades also contrasts sharply with trendless to weak positive trend of Antarctic sea ice throughout the same period. This asymmetric behavior is often partly attributed to the differences in configuration of continents in the Arctic and Antarctic: the Arctic Ocean is surrounded by land while the Southern Ocean has a continent in the middle. A simple conceptual energy balance model of Budyko-Sellers type, accounting for differences between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, is applied to study the mechanisms of climate sensitivity to a variety of forcings. Asymmetry in major modes of variability is explained using an eigenmode analysis of the linearized model. Negative forcings over Antarctica such as from ozone depletion were found to have an amplified effect on southern hemisphere climate and may be an important cause of the muted warming and slightly positive Antarctic sea ice trend.

  5. CARBON-CHAIN SPECIES IN WARM-UP MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassel, George E.; Harada, Nanase; Herbst, Eric

    2011-01-01

    In previous warm-up chemical models of the low-mass star-forming region L1527, we investigated the evolution of carbon-chain unsaturated hydrocarbon species when the envelope temperature is slightly elevated to T ≈ 30 K. These models demonstrated that enhanced abundances of such species can be explained by gas-phase ion-molecule chemistry following the partial sublimation of methane from grain surfaces. We also concluded that the abundances of hydrocarbon radicals such as the C n H family should be further enhanced as the temperatures increase to higher values, but this conclusion stood in contrast with the lack of unambiguous detection of these species toward hot core and corino sources. Meanwhile, observational surveys have identified C 2 H, C 4 H, CH 3 CCH, and CH 3 OH toward hot corinos (especially IRAS 16293–2422) as well as toward L1527, with lower abundances for the carbon-chain radicals and higher abundances for the other two species toward the hot corinos. In addition, the Herschel Space Telescope has detected the bare linear chain C 3 in 50 K material surrounding young high-mass stellar objects. To understand these new results, we revisit previous warm-up models with an augmented gas-grain network that incorporated reactions from a gas-phase network that was constructed for use with increased temperature up to 800 K. Some of the newly adopted reactions between carbon-chain species and abundant H 2 possess chemical activation energy barriers. The revised model results now better reproduce the observed abundances of unsaturated carbon chains under hot corino (100 K) conditions and make predictions for the abundances of bare carbon chains in the 50 K regions observed by the Herschel HIFI detector.

  6. The administration of renoprotective agents extends warm ischemia in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Jacob; Dorai, Thambi; Ding, Cheng; Batinic-Haberle, Ines; Grasso, Michael

    2013-03-01

    Extended warm ischemia time during partial nephrectomy leads to considerable renal injury. Using a rat model of renal ischemia, we examined the ability of a unique renoprotective cocktail to ameliorate warm ischemia-reperfusion injury and extend warm ischemia time. A warm renal ischemia model was developed using Sprague-Dawley rats, clamping the left renal artery for 40, 50, 60, and 70 minutes, followed by 48 hours of reperfusion. An improved renoprotective cocktail referred to as I-GPM (a mixture of specific renoprotective growth factors, porphyrins, and mitochondria-protecting amino acids) was administered -24 hours, 0 hours, and +24 hours after surgery. At 48 hours, both kidneys were harvested and examined with hematoxylin and eosin and periodic acid-Schiff stains for the analysis of renal tubular necrosis. Creatinine, protein, and gene expression levels were also analyzed to evaluate several ischemia-specific and antioxidant response markers. I-GPM treated kidneys showed significant reversal of morphologic changes and a significant reduction in specific ischemic markers lipocalin-2, galectin-3, GRP-78, and HMGB1 compared with ischemic controls. These experiments also showed an upregulation of the stress response protein, heat shock protein (HSP)-70, as well as the phosphorylated active form of the transcription factor, heat shock factor (HSF)-1. In addition, quantitative RT-PCR analyses revealed a robust upregulation of several antioxidant pathway response genes in I-GPM treated animals. By histopathologic and several molecular measures, our unique renoprotective cocktail mitigated ischemia-reperfusion injury. Our cocktail minimized oxidative stress in an ischemic kidney rat model while at the same time protecting the global parenchymal function during extended periods of ischemia.

  7. Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pincus, R.; Mauritsen, T.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the lifetime of CO2 and thermal inertia of the ocean, the Earth's climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently-improved estimates of Earth's energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the fifth IPCC assessment report. Compared to pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5K [0.9-3.6, 5-95 percentile] at equilibrium, and of 1.3K [0.9-2.3] within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1K [0.7-1.8]. Conservatively, there is a 32% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5K target set in Paris, and that this will likely be crossed prior to 2053. Regular updates of these observationally-constrained committed warming estimates, though simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and understanding the limitations of the framework is advanced.

  8. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  9. Understanding factors influencing vulnerable older people keeping warm and well in winter: a qualitative study using social marketing techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tod, Angela Mary; Lusambili, Adelaide; Homer, Catherine; Abbott, Joanne; Cooke, Joanne Mary; Stocks, Amanda Jayne; McDaid, Kathleen Anne

    2012-01-01

    To understand the influences and decisions of vulnerable older people in relation to keeping warm in winter. A qualitative study incorporating in-depth, semi-structured individual and group interviews, framework analysis and social marketing segmentation techniques. Rotherham, South Yorkshire, UK. 50 older people (>55) and 25 health and social care staff underwent individual interview. The older people also had household temperature measurements. 24 older people and 19 health and social care staff participated in one of the six group interviews. Multiple complex factors emerged to explain whether vulnerable older people were able to keep warm. These influences combined in various ways that meant older people were not able to or preferred not to access help or change home heating behaviour. Factors influencing behaviours and decisions relating to use of heating, spending money, accessing cheaper tariffs, accessing benefits or asking for help fell into three main categories. These were situational and contextual factors, attitudes and values, and barriers. Barriers included poor knowledge and awareness, technology, disjointed systems and the invisibility of fuel and fuel payment. Findings formed the basis of a social marketing segmentation model used to develop six pen portraits that illustrated how factors that conspire against older people being able to keep warm. The findings illustrate how and why vulnerable older people may be at risk of a cold home. The pen portraits provide an accessible vehicle and reflective tool to raise the capacity of the NHS in responding to their needs in line with the Cold Weather Plan.

  10. Exploring the parameter space of warm-inflation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun; Kronberg, Nico

    2015-12-01

    Warm inflation includes inflaton interactions with other fields throughout the inflationary epoch instead of confining such interactions to a distinct reheating era. Previous investigations have shown that, when certain constraints on the dynamics of these interactions and the resultant radiation bath are satisfied, a low-momentum-dominated dissipation coefficient propto T3/mχ2 can sustain an era of inflation compatible with CMB observations. In this work, we extend these analyses by including the pole-dominated dissipation term propto √mχ T exp(-mχ/T). We find that, with this enhanced dissipation, certain models, notably the quadratic hilltop potential, perform significantly better. Specifically, we can achieve 50 e-folds of inflation and a spectral index compatible with Planck data while requiring fewer mediator field (Script O(104) for the quadratic hilltop potential) and smaller coupling constants, opening up interesting model-building possibilities. We also highlight the significance of the specific parametric dependence of the dissipative coefficient which could prove useful in even greater reduction in field content.

  11. An evaluation of applying the 'Critical thinking model' to teaching global warming to junior high school students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, J.; Hong, C.; Hsu, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is a consequence of interaction among the biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and geosphere. The causes of climate change are extremely complicated for scientists to explain. The fact that the global climate has kept warming in the past few decades is one example. It remains controversial for scientists whether this warming is the result of human activity or natural causes. This research aims to lead students to discuss the causes of global warming from distinct and controversial viewpoints to help the students realize the uncertainty and complicated characteristics of the global warming issue. The context of applying the critical thinking model to teaching the scientific concepts of climate change and global warming is designed for use in junior high schools. The videos of the upside concept 'An Inconvenient Truth' (a 2006 documentary film directed by Davis Guggenheim) and the reverse-side concept 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' (a 2007 documentary film made by British television producer/director Martin Durkin) about the global warming crisis are incorporated into lessons in order to guide students to make their own decisions appropriately when discussing the earth climate change crisis. A questionnaire, individual teacher interviews and observations in class were conducted to evaluate the curriculum. The pre-test and post-test questionnaires showed differences in the students' knowledge, attitudes and behavior towards the global warming phenomenon before and after attending the lessons. The results show that those students who attended the whole curriculum had a significant increase in their knowledge and behavior factors of global climate (P value <0.001*). However, there was no significant improvement in their attitudes between the pre-test and post-test questionnaires (P value=0.329). From the individual interviews, the teachers who gave the lessons indicated that this project could increase the interaction with their students during class

  12. Waste Reduction Model (WARM) Resources for State and Local Government/Solid Waste Planners

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief overview of how EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM) can be used by state and local government/solid waste planners. The page includes a brief summary of uses of WARM for the audience and links to other resources.

  13. A microclimate model to investigate greenhouse warming of a sub- Alpine ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, K.P.

    1992-01-01

    Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere are expected to result in a global warming of several degrees Celsius in the coming decades. This warming will have far-reaching impacts on the biosphere, and while General Circulation Models (GCMs) try to predict the magnitude and scope of the warming, there is little information regarding the potential impacts of greenhouse warming on natural systems. An experiment currently under way in a meadow in the Colorado Rocky Mountains attempts to investigate the many consequences of greenhouse warming for soil ecosystems. A mathematical model of the soil microclimate was developed to simulate the soil temperature and moisture content of the meadow. The model simulates both treatment and control scenarios so as to investigate the potential effects of warming. Results of model simulation studies indicate warmer, drier soils under treatment conditions, with the greatest temperature effects of warming occurring at night. These results could have several implications regarding the dynamics of the ecosystem, and future model studies will investigate these connections

  14. Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

    2015-12-01

    A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique

  15. A Fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the effects of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata orchids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putti, Fernando Ferrari; Filho, Luis Roberto Almeida Gabriel; Gabriel, Camila Pires Cremasco; Neto, Alfredo Bonini; Bonini, Carolina Dos Santos Batista; Rodrigues Dos Reis, André

    2017-06-01

    This study aimed to develop a fuzzy mathematical model to estimate the impacts of global warming on the vitality of Laelia purpurata growing in different Brazilian environmental conditions. In order to develop the mathematical model was considered as intrinsic factors the parameters: temperature, humidity and shade conditions to determine the vitality of plants. Fuzzy model results could accurately predict the optimal conditions for cultivation of Laelia purpurata in several sites of Brazil. Based on fuzzy model results, we found that higher temperatures and lacking of properly shading can reduce the vitality of orchids. Fuzzy mathematical model could precisely detect the effect of higher temperatures causing damages on vitality of plants as a consequence of global warming. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Combining observations and models to reduce uncertainty in the cloud response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, J. R.; Myers, T.; Chellappan, S.

    2017-12-01

    Currently there is large uncertainty on how subtropical low-level clouds will respond to global warming and whether they will act as a positive feedback or negative feedback. Global climate models substantially agree on what changes in atmospheric structure and circulation will occur with global warming but greatly disagree over how clouds will respond to these changes in structure and circulation. An examination of models with the most realistic simulations of low-level cloudiness indicates that the model cloud response to atmospheric changes associated with global warming is quantitatively similar to the model cloud response to atmospheric changes at interannual time scales. For these models, the cloud response to global warming predicted by multilinear regression using coefficients derived from interannual time scales is quantitatively similar to the cloud response to global warming directly simulated by the model. Since there is a large spread among cloud response coefficients even among models with the most realistic cloud simulations, substitution of coefficients derived from satellite observations reduces the uncertainty range of the low-level cloud feedback. Increased sea surface temperature associated with global warming acts to reduce low-level cloudiness, which is partially offset by increased lower tropospheric stratification that acts to enhance low-level cloudiness. Changes in free-tropospheric relative humidity, subsidence, and horizontal advection have only a small impact on low-level cloud. The net reduction in subtropical low-level cloudiness increases absorption of solar radiation by the climate system, thus resulting in a weak positive feedback.

  17. Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

    2017-08-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for

  18. Modeling Resources Allocation in Attacker-Defender Games with "Warm Up" CSF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Peiqiu; Zhuang, Jun

    2016-04-01

    Like many other engineering investments, the attacker's and defender's investments may have limited impact without initial capital to "warm up" the systems. This article studies such "warm up" effects on both the attack and defense equilibrium strategies in a sequential-move game model by developing a class of novel and more realistic contest success functions. We first solve a single-target attacker-defender game analytically and provide numerical solutions to a multiple-target case. We compare the results of the models with and without consideration of the investment "warm up" effects, and find that the defender would suffer higher expected damage, and either underestimate the attacker effort or waste defense investment if the defender falsely believes that no investment "warm up" effects exist. We illustrate the model results with real data, and compare the results of the models with and without consideration of the correlation between the "warm up" threshold and the investment effectiveness. Interestingly, we find that the defender is suggested to give up defending all the targets when the attack or the defense "warm up" thresholds are sufficiently high. This article provides new insights and suggestions on policy implications for homeland security resource allocation. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Unilateral Partial Nephrectomy with Warm Ischemia Results in Acute Hypoxia Inducible Factor 1-Alpha (HIF-1α and Toll-Like Receptor 4 (TLR4 Overexpression in a Porcine Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyong Zhang

    Full Text Available Ischemia/reperfusion (I/R during partial nephrectomy (PN contributes to acute kidney injury (AKI, which is inaccurately assessed using existent clinical markers of renal function. We evaluated I/R-related changes in expression in hypoxia inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α and toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4, within kidney tissue and peripheral blood leukocytes (PBL in a porcine model of PN.Three adult pigs each underwent unilateral renal hilar cross clamping for 180 min followed by a 15 min reperfusion. The contralateral kidney served as control. Biopsies of clamped kidneys were obtained at baseline (time 0, every 60 min during the hypoxic phase, and post-reperfusion. Control kidneys were biopsied once at 180 min. Peripheral blood was sampled at time 0, every 30 min during the hypoxic phase, and post-reperfusion. HIF-1α and TLR4 expression in kidney tissue and PBL were analyzed by Western blotting. I/R-related histological changes were assessed.Expression of HIF-1α in clamped kidneys and PBL was below detection level at baseline, rising to detectable levels after 60 min of hypoxia, and continuing to rise throughout the hypoxic and reperfusion phases. Expression of TLR-4 in clamped kidneys followed a similar trend with initial detection after 30-60 min of hypoxia. Control kidneys exhibited no change in HIF-1α or TLR-4 expression. I/R-related histologic changes were minimal, primarily mild tubular dilatation.In a porcine model of PN, HIF-1α and TLR4 exhibited robust, I/R-related increases in expression in kidney tissue and PBL. Further studies investigating these molecules as potential markers of AKI are warranted.

  20. CAUSES: Diagnosis of the Summertime Warm Bias in CMIP5 Climate Models at the ARM Southern Great Plains Site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chengzhu; Xie, Shaocheng; Klein, Stephen A.; Ma, Hsi-yen; Tang, Shuaiqi; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Petch, Jon

    2018-03-01

    All the weather and climate models participating in the Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface project show a summertime surface air temperature (T2 m) warm bias in the region of the central United States. To understand the warm bias in long-term climate simulations, we assess the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, with long-term observations mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Southern Great Plains site. Quantities related to the surface energy and water budget, and large-scale circulation are analyzed to identify possible factors and plausible links involved in the warm bias. The systematic warm season bias is characterized by an overestimation of T2 m and underestimation of surface humidity, precipitation, and precipitable water. Accompanying the warm bias is an overestimation of absorbed solar radiation at the surface, which is due to a combination of insufficient cloud reflection and clear-sky shortwave absorption by water vapor and an underestimation in surface albedo. The bias in cloud is shown to contribute most to the radiation bias. The surface layer soil moisture impacts T2 m through its control on evaporative fraction. The error in evaporative fraction is another important contributor to T2 m. Similar sources of error are found in hindcast from other Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface studies. In Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations, biases in meridional wind velocity associated with the low-level jet and the 500 hPa vertical velocity may also relate to T2 m bias through their control on the surface energy and water budget.

  1. A study on die wear model of warm and hot forgings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, J. H.; Park, I. W.; Jae, J. S.; Kang, S. S.

    1998-05-01

    Factors influencing service lives of tools in warm and hot forging processes are wear, mechanical fatigue, plastic deformation and thermal fatigue, etc. Wear is the predominant factor for tool failure among these. To predict tool life by wear, Archard's model where hardness is considered as constant or function of temperature is generally applied. Usually hardness of die is a function of not only temperature but operating time of die. To consider softening of die by repeated operation it is necessary to express hardness of die by a function of temperature and time. In this study wear coefficients were measured for various temperatures and heat treatment for H13 tool steel. Also by experiment of reheating of die, die softening curves were obtained. From experimental results, relationships between tempering parameters and hardness were established to investigate effects of hardness decrease by the effect of temperatures and time. Finally modified Archard's wear model in which hardness is considered to be a function of main tempering curve was proposed. And finite element analyses were conducted by adopting suggested wear model. By comparisons of simulations and real profiles of worn die, proposed wear model was verified.

  2. Warm intermediate inflationary Universe model in the presence of a generalized Chaplygin gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramon [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Instituto de Fisica, Valparaiso (Chile); Videla, Nelson [Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Fisica, FCFM, Santiago (Chile); Olivares, Marco [Universidad Diego Portales, Facultad de Ingenieria, Santiago (Chile)

    2016-01-15

    A warm intermediate inflationary model in the context of generalized Chaplygin gas is investigated. We study this model in the weak and strong dissipative regimes, considering a generalized form of the dissipative coefficient Γ = Γ(T,φ), and we describe the inflationary dynamics in the slow-roll approximation. We find constraints on the parameters in our model considering the Planck 2015 data, together with the condition for warm inflation T > H, and the conditions for the weak and strong dissipative regimes. (orig.)

  3. Warm and cold molecular gas conditions modeled in 87 galaxies observed by the Herschel SPIRE FTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamenetzky, Julia; Rangwala, Naseem; Glenn, Jason

    2018-01-01

    Molecular gas is the raw material for star formation, and like the interstellar medium (ISM) in general, it can exist in regions of higher and lower excitation. Rotational transitions of the CO molecule are bright and sensitive to cold molecular gas. While the majority of the molecular gas exists in the very cold component traced by CO J=1-0, the higher-J lines trace the highly excited gas that may be more indicative of star formation processes. The atmosphere is opaque to these lines, but the launch of the Herschel Space Observatory made them accessible for study of Galactic and extragalactic sources. We have conducted two-component, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) modeling of the CO lines from J=1‑0 through J=13‑12 in 87 galaxies observed by the Herschel SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). We used the nested sampling algorithm Multinest to compare the measured CO spectral line energy distributions (SLEDs) to the ones produced by a custom version of the non-LTE code RADEX. This allowed us to fully examine the degeneracies in parameter space for kinetic temperature, molecular gas density, CO column density, and area filling factor.Here we discuss the major findings of our study, as well as the important implications of two-component molecular gas modeling. The average pressure of the warm gas is slightly correlated with galaxy LFIR, but that of the cold gas is not. A high-J (such as J=11-10) to J=1-0 line ratio is diagnostic of warm component pressure. We find a very large spread in our derived values of "alpha-CO," with no discernable trend with LFIR, and average molecular gas depletion times that decrease with LFIR. If only a few molecular lines are available in a galaxy's SLED, the limited ability to model only one component will change the results. A one-component fit often underestimates the flux of carbon monoxide (CO) J=1‑0 and the mass. If low-J lines are not included, mass is underestimated by an order of magnitude. Even when

  4. Tachyon Warm Intermediate and Logamediate Inflation in the Brane World Model in the Light of Planck Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setare, M. R.; Kamali, V.

    2016-01-01

    Tachyon inflationary universe model on the brane in the context of warm inflation is studied. In slow-roll approximation and in longitudinal gauge, we find the primordial perturbation spectrums for this scenario. We also present the general expressions of the tensor-scalar ratio, scalar spectral index, and its running. We develop our model by using exponential potential; the characteristics of this model are calculated in great detail. We also study our model in the context of intermediate (where scale factor expands as a=a_0exp (At"f)) and logamediate (where the scale factor expands as a=a_0exp (A[ln t]"ν)) models of inflation. In these two sectors, dissipative parameter is considered as a constant parameter and a function of tachyon field. Our model is compatible with observational data. The parameters of the model are restricted by Planck data.

  5. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  6. Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodarzi, Parviz; Sadjadi, H.M.

    2017-01-01

    In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

  7. Warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton in the non-minimal kinetic coupling model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodarzi, Parviz [University of Ayatollah Ozma Borujerdi, Department of Science, Boroujerd (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sadjadi, H.M. [University of Tehran, Department of Physics, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2017-07-15

    In the cold inflation scenario, the slow roll inflation and reheating via coherent rapid oscillation, are usually considered as two distinct eras. When the slow roll ends, a rapid oscillation phase begins and the inflaton decays to relativistic particles reheating the Universe. In another model dubbed warm inflation, the rapid oscillation phase is suppressed, and we are left with only a slow roll period during which the reheating occurs. Instead, in this paper, we propose a new picture for inflation in which the slow roll era is suppressed and only the rapid oscillation phase exists. Radiation generation during this era is taken into account, so we have warm inflation with an oscillatory inflaton. To provide enough e-folds, we employ the non-minimal derivative coupling model. We study the cosmological perturbations and compute the temperature at the end of warm oscillatory inflation. (orig.)

  8. A reliability model of a warm standby configuration with two identical sets of units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Wei; Loman, James; Song, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a new reliability model and the development of its analytical solution for a warm standby redundant configuration with units that are originally operated in active mode, and then, upon turn-on of originally standby units, are put into warm standby mode. These units can be used later if a standby- turned into active-unit fails. Numerical results of an example configuration are presented and discussed with comparison to other warm standby configurations, and to Monte Carlo simulation results obtained from BlockSim software. Results show that the Monte Carlo simulation model gives virtually identical reliability value when the simulation uses a high number of replications, confirming the developed model. - Highlights: • A new reliability model is developed for a warm standby redundancy with two sets of identical units. • The units subject to state change from active to standby then back to active mode. • A closed form analytical solution is developed with exponential distribution. • To validate the developed model, a Monte Carlo simulation for an exemplary configuration is performed

  9. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

  10. Mass Media and Global Warming: A Public Arenas Model of the Greenhouse Effect's Scientific Roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuzil, Mark

    1995-01-01

    Uses the Public Arenas model to examine the historical roots of the greenhouse effect issue as communicated in scientific literature from the early 1800s to modern times. Utilizes a constructivist approach to discuss several possible explanations for the rise and fall of global warming as a social problem in the scientific arena. (PA)

  11. The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Crespin

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470–1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming.

  12. A Dislocation based Constitutive Model for Warm Forming of Aluminum Sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kurukuri, S.; Ghosh, M.; van den Boogaard, Antonius H.

    2008-01-01

    The formability of aluminum sheet can be improved considerably by increasing the temperature. At elevated temperatures, the mechanical response of the material becomes strain rate dependent. To accurately simulate warm forming of aluminum sheet, a material model is required that incorporates the

  13. Factors Influencing Knowledge, Food Safety Practices and Food Preferences During Warm Weather of Salmonella and Campylobacter Cases in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milazzo, Adriana; Giles, Lynne C; Zhang, Ying; Koehler, Ann P; Hiller, Janet E; Bi, Peng

    2017-03-01

    To assess food safety practices, food shopping preferences, and eating behaviors of people diagnosed with Salmonella or Campylobacter infection in the warm seasons, and to identify socioeconomic factors associated with behavior and practices. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Salmonella and Campylobacter cases with onset of illness from January 1 to March 31, 2013. Multivariable logistic regression analyses examined relationships between socioeconomic position and food safety knowledge and practices, shopping and food preferences, and preferences, perceptions, and knowledge about food safety information on warm days. Respondents in our study engaged in unsafe personal and food hygiene practices. They also carried out unsafe food preparation practices, and had poor knowledge of foods associated with an increased risk of foodborne illness. Socioeconomic position did not influence food safety practices. We found that people's reported eating behaviors and food preferences were influenced by warm weather. Our study has explored preferences and practices related to food safety in the warm season months. This is important given that warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise, both globally and in Australia, and will have a substantial effect on the burden of infectious gastroenteritis including foodborne disease. Our results provide information about modifiable behaviors for the prevention of foodborne illness in the household in the warm weather and the need for information to be disseminated across the general population. An understanding of the knowledge and factors associated with human behavior during warmer weather is critical for public health interventions on foodborne prevention.

  14. Testing warm Comptonization models for the origin of the soft X-ray excess in AGNs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrucci, P.-O.; Ursini, F.; De Rosa, A.; Bianchi, S.; Cappi, M.; Matt, G.; Dadina, M.; Malzac, J.

    2018-03-01

    The X-ray spectra of many active galactic nuclei (AGNs) show a soft X-ray excess below 1-2 keV on top of the extrapolated high-energy power law. The origin of this component is uncertain. It could be a signature of relativistically blurred, ionized reflection or the high-energy tail of thermal Comptonization in a warm (kT 1 keV), optically thick (τ ≃ 10-20) corona producing the optical/UV to soft X-ray emission. The purpose of the present paper is to test the warm corona model on a statistically significant sample of unabsorbed, radio-quiet AGNs with XMM-Newton archival data, providing simultaneous optical/UV and X-ray coverage. The sample has 22 objects and 100 observations. We use two thermal Comptonization components to fit the broadband spectra, one for the warm corona emission and one for the high-energy continuum. In the optical/UV, we also include the reddening, the small blue bump, and the Galactic extinction. In the X-rays, we include a warm absorber and a neutral reflection. The model gives a good fit (reduced χ2 uniformly distributed in the 0.1-1 keV range, while the optical depth is in the range 10-40. These values are consistent with a warm corona covering a large fraction of a quasi-passive accretion disk, i.e., that mostly reprocesses the warm corona emission. The disk intrinsic emission represents no more than 20% of the disk total emission. According to this interpretation, most of the accretion power would be released in the upper layers of the accretion flow.

  15. Model Correction Factor Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus; Randrup-Thomsen, Søren; Morsing Johannesen, Johannes

    1997-01-01

    The model correction factor method is proposed as an alternative to traditional polynomial based response surface techniques in structural reliability considering a computationally time consuming limit state procedure as a 'black box'. The class of polynomial functions is replaced by a limit...... of the model correction factor method, is that in simpler form not using gradient information on the original limit state function or only using this information once, a drastic reduction of the number of limit state evaluation is obtained together with good approximations on the reliability. Methods...

  16. The hydrometeor partitioning and microphysical processes over the Pacific Warm Pool in numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yi-Chih; Wang, Pao K.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical modeling is conducted to study the hydrometeor partitioning and microphysical source and sink processes during a quasi-steady state of thunderstorms over the Pacific Warm Pool by utilizing the microphysical model WISCDYMM to simulate selected storm cases. The results show that liquid-phase hydrometeors dominate thunderstorm evolution over the Pacific Warm Pool. The ratio of ice-phase mass to liquid-phase mass is about 41%: 59%, indicating that ice-phase water is not as significant over the Pacific Warm Pool as the liquid water compared to the larger than 50% in the subtropics and 80% in the US High Plains in a previous study. Sensitivity tests support the dominance of liquid-phase hydrometeors over the Pacific Warm Pool. The major rain sources are the key hail sinks: melting of hail and shedding from hail; whereas the crucial rain sinks are evaporation and accretion by hail. The major snow sources are Bergeron-Findeisen process, transfer of cloud ice to snow and accretion of cloud water; whereas the foremost sink of snow is accretion by hail. The essential hail sources are accretions of rain, cloud water, and snow; whereas the critical hail sinks are melting of hail and shedding from hail. The contribution and ranking of sources and sinks of these precipitates are compared with the previous study. Hydrometeors have their own special microphysical processes in the development and depletion over the Pacific Warm Pool. Microphysical budgets depend on atmospheric dynamical and thermodynamical conditions which determine the partitioning of hydrometeors. This knowledge would benefit the microphysics parameterization in cloud models and cumulus parameterization in global circulation models.

  17. Warm Bias and Parameterization of Boundary Upwelling in Ocean Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cessi, Paola; Wolfe, Christopher

    2012-11-06

    It has been demonstrated that Eastern Boundary Currents (EBC) are a baroclinic intensification of the interior circulation of the ocean due to the emergence of mesoscale eddies in response to the sharp buoyancy gradients driven by the wind-stress and the thermal surface forcing. The eddies accomplish the heat and salt transport necessary to insure that the subsurface flow is adiabatic, compensating for the heat and salt transport effected by the mean currents. The EBC thus generated occurs on a cross-shore scale of order 20-100 km, and thus this scale needs to be resolved in climate models in order to capture the meridional transport by the EBC. Our result indicate that changes in the near shore currents on the oceanic eastern boundaries are linked not just to local forcing, such as coastal changes in the winds, but depend on the basin-wide circulation as well.

  18. Neurospora discreta as a model to assess adaptation of soil fungi to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero-Olivares, Adriana L; Taylor, John W; Treseder, Kathleen K

    2015-09-16

    Short-term experiments have indicated that warmer temperatures can alter fungal biomass production and CO2 respiration, with potential consequences for soil C storage. However, we know little about the capacity of fungi to adapt to warming in ways that may alter C dynamics. Thus, we exposed Neurospora discreta to moderately warm (16 °C) and warm (28 °C) selective temperatures for 1500 mitotic generations, and then examined changes in mycelial growth rate, biomass, spore production, and CO2 respiration. We tested the hypothesis that strains will adapt to its selective temperature. Specifically, we expected that adapted strains would grow faster, and produce more spores per unit biomass (i.e., relative spore production). In contrast, they should generate less CO2 per unit biomass due to higher efficiency in carbon use metabolism (i.e., lower mass specific respiration, MSR). Indeed, N. discreta adapted to warm temperatures, based on patterns of relative spore production. Adapted strains produced more spores per unit biomass than parental strains in the selective temperature. Contrary to our expectations, this increase in relative spore production was accompanied by an increase in MSR and a reduction in mycelial growth rate and biomass, compared to parental strains. Adaptation of N. discreta to warm temperatures may have elicited a tradeoff between biomass production and relative spore production, possibly because relative spore production required higher MSR rates. Therefore, our results do not support the idea that adaptation to warm temperatures will lead to a more efficient carbon use metabolism. Our data might help improve climate change model simulations and provide more concise predictions of decomposition processes and carbon feedbacks to the atmosphere.

  19. Analyzing numerics of bulk microphysics schemes in community models: warm rain processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Sednev

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Implementation of bulk cloud microphysics (BLK parameterizations in atmospheric models of different scales has gained momentum in the last two decades. Utilization of these parameterizations in cloud-resolving models when timesteps used for the host model integration are a few seconds or less is justified from the point of view of cloud physics. However, mechanistic extrapolation of the applicability of BLK schemes to the regional or global scales and the utilization of timesteps of hundreds up to thousands of seconds affect both physics and numerics.

    We focus on the mathematical aspects of BLK schemes, such as stability and positive-definiteness. We provide a strict mathematical definition for the problem of warm rain formation. We also derive a general analytical condition (SM-criterion that remains valid regardless of parameterizations for warm rain processes in an explicit Eulerian time integration framework used to advanced finite-difference equations, which govern warm rain formation processes in microphysics packages in the Community Atmosphere Model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The SM-criterion allows for the existence of a unique positive-definite stable mass-conserving numerical solution, imposes an additional constraint on the timestep permitted due to the microphysics (like the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy condition for the advection equation, and prohibits use of any additional assumptions not included in the strict mathematical definition of the problem under consideration.

    By analyzing the numerics of warm rain processes in source codes of BLK schemes implemented in community models we provide general guidelines regarding the appropriate choice of time steps in these models.

  20. Statistical factors to qualify the superconducting magnets for the SSC based on warm/cold correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, K.; Devred, A.; Coles, M.; Tompkins, J.

    1993-05-01

    All of the SSC production magnets will be measured at room temperature (warm), but only a fraction of these will be measured at liquid helium temperature (cold). The fractional information will then be analyzed to determine warm acceptance criteria for the field quality of the SSC magnets. Regarding predictors of the field quality based on partial information, there are several observations and studies based on the warm/cold correlation. A different facet of the acceptance test is production control, which interprets the warm/cold correlation to adjust the process parameters. For these applications, we are evaluating statistical techniques relying on asymptotic estimators of the systematic errors and random errors, and their respective confidence intervals. The estimators are useful to qualify the population magnets based on a subset of sample magnets. We present the status of our work, including: (i) a recapitulation of analytic formulas, (ii) a justification based on HERA magnet experience, and (iii) a practical interpretation of these estimators

  1. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  2. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.

    2015-01-01

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351

  3. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A

    2015-04-21

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

  4. Evaluation of NASA GEOS-ADAS Modeled Diurnal Warming Through Comparisons to SEVIRI and AMSR2 SST Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentemann, C. L.; Akella, S.

    2018-02-01

    An analysis of the ocean skin Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been included in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS), Version 5 (GEOS-ADAS). This analysis is based on the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) that simulates near-surface diurnal warming and cool skin effects. Analysis for the skin SST is performed along with the atmospheric state, including Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite radiance observations as part of the data assimilation system. One month (September, 2015) of GEOS-ADAS SSTs were compared to collocated satellite Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) SSTs to examine how the GEOS-ADAS diurnal warming compares to the satellite measured warming. The spatial distribution of warming compares well to the satellite observed distributions. Specific diurnal events are analyzed to examine variability within a single day. The dependence of diurnal warming on wind speed, time of day, and daily average insolation is also examined. Overall the magnitude of GEOS-ADAS warming is similar to the warming inferred from satellite retrievals, but several weaknesses in the GEOS-AGCM simulated diurnal warming are identified and directly related back to specific features in the formulation of the diurnal warming model.

  5. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  6. Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

    2016-01-01

    Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

  7. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  8. Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

    Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also

  9. Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

    2016-12-01

    Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

  10. Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

  11. Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

    2017-10-12

    Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

  12. Ion-ion dynamic structure factor, acoustic modes, and equation of state of two-temperature warm dense aluminum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbour, L.; Förster, G. D.; Dharma-wardana, M. W. C.; Lewis, Laurent J.

    2018-04-01

    The ion-ion dynamical structure factor and the equation of state of warm dense aluminum in a two-temperature quasiequilibrium state, with the electron temperature higher than the ion temperature, are investigated using molecular-dynamics simulations based on ion-ion pair potentials constructed from a neutral pseudoatom model. Such pair potentials based on density functional theory are parameter-free and depend directly on the electron temperature and indirectly on the ion temperature, enabling efficient computation of two-temperature properties. Comparison with ab initio simulations and with other average-atom calculations for equilibrium aluminum shows good agreement, justifying a study of quasiequilibrium situations. Analyzing the van Hove function, we find that ion-ion correlations vanish in a time significantly smaller than the electron-ion relaxation time so that dynamical properties have a physical meaning for the quasiequilibrium state. A significant increase in the speed of sound is predicted from the modification of the dispersion relation of the ion acoustic mode as the electron temperature is increased. The two-temperature equation of state including the free energy, internal energy, and pressure is also presented.

  13. An Extended Multi-Zone Model for the MCG-6-30-15 Warm Absorber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, R.; Fabian, A. C.; Reynolds, C. S.

    2000-01-01

    The variable warm absorber seen with ASCA in the X-ray spectrum of MCG 6-30-15 shows complex time behaviour in which the optical depth of O VIII anticorrelates with the flux whereas that of O VII is unchanging. The explanation in terms of a two zone absorber has since been challenged by BeppoSAX observations. These present a more complicated behaviour for the O VII edge. The explanation we offer for both ASCA and BeppoSAX observations requires a very simple photoionization model together with the presence of a third, intermediate, zone and a period of very low luminosity. In practice warm absorbers are likely to be extended, multi-zone regions of which only part causes directly observable absorption edges at any given time depending on the value of the luminosity.

  14. Clouds and the extratropical circulation response to global warming in a hierarchy of global atmosphere models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models project that global warming will lead to substantial changes in extratropical jet streams. Yet, many quantitative aspects of warming-induced jet stream changes remain uncertain, and recent work has indicated an important role of clouds and their radiative interactions. Here, I will investigate how cloud-radiative changes impact the zonal-mean extratropical circulation response under global warming using a hierarchy of global atmosphere models. I will first focus on aquaplanet setups with prescribed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which reproduce the model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive SSTs. Simulations with two CMIP5 models MPI-ESM and IPSL-CM5A and prescribed clouds show that half of the circulation response can be attributed to cloud changes. The rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry Held-Suarez model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. I will then show that the aquaplanet results also hold when the models are used in a realistic setup that includes continents and seasonality. I will further juxtapose these prescribed-SST simulations with interactive-SST simulations and show that atmospheric and surface cloud-radiative interactions impact the jet poleward jet shifts in about equal measure. Finally, I will discuss the cloud impact on regional and seasonal circulation changes.

  15. A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

    2012-01-01

    Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

  16. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  17. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

  18. Field-warmed soil carbon changes imply high 21st-century modeling uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Todd-Brown

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The feedback between planetary warming and soil carbon loss has been the focus of considerable scientific attention in recent decades, due to its potential to accelerate anthropogenic climate change. The soil carbon temperature sensitivity is traditionally estimated from short-term respiration measurements – either from laboratory incubations that are artificially manipulated or from field measurements that cannot distinguish between plant and microbial respiration. To address these limitations of previous approaches, we developed a new method to estimate soil temperature sensitivity (Q10 of soil carbon directly from warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks measured in 36 field experiments across the world. Variations in warming magnitude and control organic carbon percentage explained much of field-warmed organic carbon percentage (R2  =  0.96, revealing Q10 across sites of 2.2 [1.6, 2.7] 95 % confidence interval (CI. When these field-derived Q10 values were extrapolated over the 21st century using a post hoc correction of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 Earth system model outputs, the multi-model mean soil carbon stock changes shifted from the previous value of 88 ± 153 Pg carbon (weighted mean ± 1 SD to 19 ± 155 Pg carbon with a Q10-driven 95 % CI of 248 ± 191 to −95 ± 209 Pg carbon. On average, incorporating the field-derived Q10 values into Earth system model simulations led to reductions in the projected amount of carbon sequestered in the soil over the 21st century. However, the considerable parameter uncertainty led to extremely high variability in soil carbon stock projections within each model; intra-model uncertainty driven by the field-derived Q10 was as great as that between model variation. This study demonstrates that data integration should capture the variation of the system, as well as mean trends.

  19. Possible impacts of global warming on tundra and boreal forest ecosystems - comparison of some biogeochemical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploechl, M.; Cramer, W.

    1995-06-01

    Global warming affects the magnitude of carbon, water and nitrogen fluxes between biosphere and atmosphere as well as the distribution of vegetation types. Biogeochemical models, global as well as patch models, can be used to estimate the differences between the mean values of annual net primary production (NPP) for the present and for future climate scenarios. Both approaches rely on the prescribed pattern of vegetation types. Structural, rule based models can predict such patterns, provided that vegetation and climate are in equilibrium. The coupling of biogeochemical and structural models gives the opportunity to test the sensitivity of biogeochemical processes not only to climatic change but also to biome shifts. Whether the annual mean NPP of a vegetation type increses or decreases depends strongly on the assumptions about a CO{sub 2} fertilization effect and nitrogen cycling. Results from our coupled model show that, given that direct CO{sub 2} effects are uncertain, (i) average NPP of these northern biomes might decrease under global warming, but (ii) total NPP of the region would increase, due to the northward shift of the taiga biome. (orig.)

  20. A Comparative Study on the Impact of Global Warming of Applying Low Carbon Factor Concrete Products

    OpenAIRE

    Su-Hyun Cho; Chang-U Chae

    2015-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment techniques have been developed as a result of the worldwide efforts to reduce the environmental impact of global warming. By using the quantification method in the construction industry, it is now possible to manage the greenhouse gas is to systematically evaluate the impact on the environment over the entire construction process. In particular, the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions at the production stage of construction material occu...

  1. A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun M Yang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

  2. Cosmological perturbations in warm-tachyon inflationary universe model with viscous pressure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Setare, M.R.; Kamali, V.

    2014-01-01

    We study the warm-tachyon inflationary universe model with viscous pressure in high-dissipation regime. General conditions which are required for this model to be realizable are derived in the slow-roll approximation. We present analytic expressions for density perturbation and amplitude of tensor perturbation in longitudinal gauge. Expressions of tensor-to-scalar ratio, scalar spectral index and its running are obtained. We develop our model by using exponential potential, the characteristics of this model are calculated for two specific cases in great details: 1. Dissipative parameter Γ and bulk viscous parameter ζ are constant parameters. 2. Dissipative parameter is a function of tachyon field ϕ and bulk viscous parameter is a function of matter-radiation mixture energy density ρ. The parameters of the model are restricted by recent observational data from the nine-year Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP9), Planck and BICEP2 data.

  3. Cosmological perturbations in warm-tachyon inflationary universe model with viscous pressure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Setare, M.R., E-mail: rezakord@ipm.ir [Department of Science, Campus of Bijar, University of Kurdistan, Bijar (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Kamali, V., E-mail: vkamali1362@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, 65178 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2014-09-07

    We study the warm-tachyon inflationary universe model with viscous pressure in high-dissipation regime. General conditions which are required for this model to be realizable are derived in the slow-roll approximation. We present analytic expressions for density perturbation and amplitude of tensor perturbation in longitudinal gauge. Expressions of tensor-to-scalar ratio, scalar spectral index and its running are obtained. We develop our model by using exponential potential, the characteristics of this model are calculated for two specific cases in great details: 1. Dissipative parameter Γ and bulk viscous parameter ζ are constant parameters. 2. Dissipative parameter is a function of tachyon field ϕ and bulk viscous parameter is a function of matter-radiation mixture energy density ρ. The parameters of the model are restricted by recent observational data from the nine-year Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP9), Planck and BICEP2 data.

  4. Cosmological perturbations in warm-tachyon inflationary universe model with viscous pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.R. Setare

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We study the warm-tachyon inflationary universe model with viscous pressure in high-dissipation regime. General conditions which are required for this model to be realizable are derived in the slow-roll approximation. We present analytic expressions for density perturbation and amplitude of tensor perturbation in longitudinal gauge. Expressions of tensor-to-scalar ratio, scalar spectral index and its running are obtained. We develop our model by using exponential potential, the characteristics of this model are calculated for two specific cases in great details: 1. Dissipative parameter Γ and bulk viscous parameter ζ are constant parameters. 2. Dissipative parameter is a function of tachyon field ϕ and bulk viscous parameter is a function of matter-radiation mixture energy density ρ. The parameters of the model are restricted by recent observational data from the nine-year Wilkinson microwave anisotropy probe (WMAP9, Planck and BICEP2 data.

  5. An accurate analytical solution of a zero-dimensional greenhouse model for global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foong, S K

    2006-01-01

    In introducing the complex subject of global warming, books and papers usually use the zero-dimensional greenhouse model. When the ratio of the infrared radiation energy of the Earth's surface that is lost to outer space to the non-reflected average solar radiation energy is small, the model admits an accurate approximate analytical solution-the resulting energy balance equation of the model is a quartic equation that can be solved analytically-and thus provides an alternative solution and instructional strategy. A search through the literature fails to find an analytical solution, suggesting that the solution may be new. In this paper, we review the model, derive the approximation and obtain its solution. The dependence of the temperature of the surface of the Earth and the temperature of the atmosphere on seven parameters is made explicit. A simple and convenient formula for global warming (or cooling) in terms of the percentage change of the parameters is derived. The dependence of the surface temperature on the parameters is illustrated by several representative graphs

  6. Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period climate with the IPSL coupled model and its atmospheric component LMDZ5A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Contoux

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the experimental design and model results of the climate simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3–3 Ma using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace model (IPSLCM5A, in the framework of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP. We use the IPSL atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, and its atmospheric component alone (AGCM, to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, topography, ice-sheet extent and vegetation are derived from the ones imposed by the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP, described in Haywood et al. (2010, 2011. We first describe the IPSL model main features, and then give a full description of the boundary conditions used for atmospheric model and coupled model experiments. The climatic outputs of the mPWP simulations are detailed and compared to the corresponding control simulations. The simulated warming relative to the control simulation is 1.94 °C in the atmospheric and 2.07 °C in the coupled model experiments. In both experiments, warming is larger at high latitudes. Mechanisms governing the simulated precipitation patterns are different in the coupled model than in the atmospheric model alone, because of the reduced gradients in imposed SSTs, which impacts the Hadley and Walker circulations. In addition, a sensitivity test to the change of land-sea mask in the atmospheric model, representing a sea-level change from present-day to 25 m higher during the mid-Pliocene, is described. We find that surface temperature differences can be large (several degrees Celsius but are restricted to the areas that were changed from ocean to land or vice versa. In terms of precipitation, impact on polar regions is minor although the change in land-sea mask is significant in these areas.

  7. Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Anne; LeRoux, Peter C.; Heikkinen, Risto K.

    2013-01-01

    changes at expanding range margins can be predicted accurately. Location. Finland. Methods. Using 10-km resolution butterfly atlas data from two periods, 1992–1999 (t1) and 2002–2009 (t2), with a significant between-period temperature increase, we modelled the effects of climatic warming on butterfly...... butterfly distributions under climate change. Model performance was lower with independent compared to non-independent validation and improved when land cover and soil type variables were included, compared to climate-only models. SDMs performed less well for highly mobile species and for species with long......Aim. To quantify whether species distribution models (SDMs) can reliably forecast species distributions under observed climate change. In particular, to test whether the predictive ability of SDMs depends on species traits or the inclusion of land cover and soil type, and whether distributional...

  8. 'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

    2011-03-01

    In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

  9. 'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onorato, P; Mascheretti, P; DeAmbrosis, A, E-mail: pasquale.onorato@unipv.it, E-mail: anna.deambrosisvigna@unipv.it [Department of Physics ' A. Volta' , University of Pavia, Via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy)

    2011-03-15

    In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

  10. 'Home made' model to study the greenhouse effect and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onorato, P; Mascheretti, P; DeAmbrosis, A

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of greenhouse effect and their actual ones. It may also be used to predict the average temperature of the Earth surface in the future, depending on the variations of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activities. This model can promote an elementary understanding of global warming since it allows a simple formalization of the energy balance for the Earth in the stationary condition, in the presence of greenhouse gases. For these reasons it can be introduced in courses for undergraduate physics students and for teacher preparation.

  11. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  12. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  13. Progress report for project modeling Arctic barrier island-lagoon system response to projected Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li H.; Gibbs, Ann E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Storlazzi, Curt; B.M. Jones,

    2012-01-01

    Changes in Arctic coastal ecosystems in response to global warming may be some of the most severe on the planet. A better understanding and analysis of the rates at which these changes are expected to occur over the coming decades is crucial in order to delineate high-priority areas that are likely to be affected by climate changes. In this study we investigate the likelihood of changes to habitat-supporting barrier island – lagoon systems in response to projected changes in atmospheric and oceanographic forcing associated with Arctic warming. To better understand the relative importance of processes responsible for the current and future coastal landscape, key parameters related to increasing arctic temperatures are investigated and used to establish boundary conditions for models that simulate barrier island migration and inundation of deltaic deposits and low-lying tundra. The modeling effort investigates the dominance and relative importance of physical processes shaping the modern Arctic coastline as well as decadal responses due to projected conditions out to the year 2100.

  14. Characterization factors for global warming in life cycle assessment based on damages to humans and ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Schryver, An M; Brakkee, Karin W; Goedkoop, Mark J; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2009-03-15

    Human and ecosystem health damage due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is generally poorly quantified in the life cycle assessment of products, preventing an integrated comparison of the importance of GHGs with other stressor types, such as ozone depletion and acidifying emissions. In this study, we derived new characterization factors for 63 GHGs that quantify the impact of an emission change on human and ecosystem health damage. For human health damage, the Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) per unit emission related to malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition, drowning, and cardiovascular diseases were quantified. For ecosystem health damage, the Potentially Disappeared Fraction (PDF) over space and time of various species groups, including plants, butterflies, birds, and mammals, per unit emission was calculated. The influence of value choices in the modeling procedure was analyzed by defining three coherent scenarios, based on Cultural theory perspectives. It was found that the characterization factor for human health damage by carbon dioxide (CO2) ranges from 1.1 x 10(-2) to 1.8 x 10(+1) DALY per kton of emission, while the characterization factor for ecosystem damage by CO2 ranges from 5.4 x 10(-2) to 1.2 x 10(+1) disappeared fraction of species over space and time ((km2 x year)/kton), depending on the scenario chosen. The characterization factor of a GHG can change up to 4 orders of magnitude, depending on the scenario. The scenario-specific differences are mainly explained by the choice for a specific time horizon and stresses the importance of dealing with value choices in the life cycle impact assessment of GHG emissions.

  15. Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2007-08-01

    Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.

  16. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

  17. Explicit calculation of indirect global warming potentials for halons using atmospheric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Wuebbles

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The concept of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs has been extensively used in policy consideration as a relative index for comparing the climate impact of an emitted greenhouse gas (GHG, relative to carbon dioxide with equal mass emissions. Ozone depletion due to emission of chlorinated or brominated halocarbons leads to cooling of the climate system in the opposite direction to the direct warming contribution by halocarbons as GHGs. This cooling is a key indirect effect of the halocarbons on climatic radiative forcing, which is accounted for by indirect GWPs. With respect to climate, it is critical to understand net influences considering direct warming and indirect cooling effects especially for Halons due to the greater ozone-depleting efficiency of bromine over chlorine. Until now, the indirect GWPs have been calculated using a parameterized approach based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC and the observed ozone depletion over the last few decades. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs through a more robust approach, we use atmospheric models to explicitly calculate the indirect GWPs of Halon-1211 and Halon-1301 for a 100-year time horizon. State-of-the-art global chemistry-transport models (CTMs were used as the computational tools to derive more realistic ozone depletion changes caused by an added pulse emission of the two major Halons at the surface. The radiative forcings on climate from the ozone changes have been calculated for indirect GWPs using an atmospheric radiative transfer model (RTM. The simulated temporal variations of global average total column Halons after a pulse perturbation follow an exponential decay with an e-folding time which is consistent with the expected chemical lifetimes of the Halons. Our calculated indirect GWPs for the two Halons are much smaller than those from past studies but are within a single standard deviation of WMO (2007 values and the direct GWP values derived

  18. Development of a fuzzy optimization model, supporting global warming decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leimbach, M.

    1996-01-01

    An increasing number of models have been developed to support global warming response policies. The model constructors are facing a lot of uncertainties which limit the evidence of these models. The support of climate policy decision-making is only possible in a semi-quantitative way, as presented by a Fuzzy model. The model design is based on an optimization approach, integrated in a bounded risk decision-making framework. Given some regional emission-related and impact-related restrictions, optimal emission paths can be calculated. The focus is not only on carbon dioxide but on other greenhouse gases too. In the paper, the components of the model will be described. Cost coefficients, emission boundaries and impact boundaries are represented as Fuzzy parameters. The Fuzzy model will be transformed into a computational one by using an approach of Rommelfanger. In the second part, some problems of applying the model to computations will be discussed. This includes discussions on the data situation and the presentation, as well as interpretation of results of sensitivity analyses. The advantage of the Fuzzy approach is that the requirements regarding data precision are not so strong. Hence, the effort for data acquisition can be reduced and computations can be started earlier. 9 figs., 3 tabs., 17 refs., 1 appendix

  19. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  20. Keeping warm? Self-reported housing and home energy efficiency factors impacting on older people heating homes in North Wales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burholt, Vanessa; Windle, Gill

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines a representative sample (N=421) of older people (aged 70+) living in rural North Wales with regard to relationships between fuel poverty, feeling cold in one's home and a range of self-reported housing and home energy efficiency items. In the Welsh context, the combination of poor housing stock and low-level income is likely to increase the chance of older people experiencing fuel poverty, therefore the analyses are relevant to both energy and social policy. The paper hypothesises that: (i) People in 'fuel poor' homes are: low-income households; living in older houses; lacking home energy efficiency measures; (ii) not all people facing difficulties heating their home (i.e. wearing extra clothing to keep warm during cold spells) are identified as 'fuel poor', but there will be an association between taking extra measures to keep warm and low income; older houses and lacking home energy efficiency factors. The results partially support the hypotheses. An estimation is made of the expenditure required to counter the factors associated with fuel poverty and cold homes in the region. The paper concludes with implications for the UK Fuel Poverty Strategy

  1. Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

    2018-06-01

    The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

  2. Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R

    2013-01-01

    We use output from global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to investigate whether the projected warming in mountains by the end of the 21st century is significantly different from that in low elevation regions. To remove the effects of latitudinal variation in warming rates, we focus on seasonal changes in the mid-latitude band of the northern hemisphere between 27.5° N and 40° N, where the two major mountain systems are the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas in Asia and the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Results from the multi-model ensemble indicate that warming rates in mountains will be enhanced relative to non-mountain regions at the same latitude, particularly during the cold season. The strongest correlations of enhanced warming with elevation are obtained for the daily minimum temperature during winter, with the largest increases found for the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. The model projections indicate that this occurs, in part, because of proportionally greater increases in downward longwave radiation at higher elevations in response to increases in water vapor. The mechanisms for enhanced increases in winter and spring maximum temperatures in the Rockies appear to be influenced more by increases in surface absorption of solar radiation owing to a reduced snow cover. Furthermore, the amplification of warming with elevation is greater for a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario. (letter)

  3. The Little Ice Age signature and subsequent warming seen in borehole temperature logs versus solar forcing model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Przybylak, R.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 103, č. 4 (2014), s. 1163-1173 ISSN 1437-3254 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : surface processes * borehole temperatures * climatic warming * Little Ice Age * solar irradiation Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.093, year: 2014

  4. Shell model and spectroscopic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poves, P.

    2007-01-01

    In these lectures, I introduce the notion of spectroscopic factor in the shell model context. A brief review is given of the present status of the large scale applications of the Interacting Shell Model. The spectroscopic factors and the spectroscopic strength are discussed for nuclei in the vicinity of magic closures and for deformed nuclei. (author)

  5. Vertical Wave Coupling associated with Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events analyzed in an Isentropic-Coordinate NWP Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.

  6. Implementation of methane cycling for deep time, global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1.2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Villanueva, Esteban Fernández; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes....... With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events......., or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth System models should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment...

  7. Responses of alpine grassland on Qinghai–Tibetan plateau to climate warming and permafrost degradation: a modeling perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaoyun; Qin, Yu; Ding, Yongjian; Xiang, Bo

    2014-01-01

    Permafrost plays a critical role in soil hydrology. Thus, the degradation of permafrost under warming climate conditions may affect the alpine grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Previous space-for-time studies using plot and basin scales have reached contradictory conclusions. In this study, we applied a process-based ecosystem model (DOS-TEM) with a state-of-the-art permafrost hydrology scheme to examine this issue. Our results showed that 1) the DOS-TEM model could properly simulate the responses of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics and of ecosystem dynamics to climate warming and spatial differences in precipitation; 2) the simulated results were consistent with plot-scale studies showing that warming caused an increase in maximum unfrozen thickness, a reduction in vegetation and soil carbon pools as a whole, and decreases in soil water content, net primary production, and heterotrophic respiration; and 3) the simulated results were also consistent with basin-scale studies showing that the ecosystem responses to warming were different in regions with different combinations of water and energy constraints. Permafrost prevents water from draining into water reservoirs. However, the degradation of permafrost in response to warming is a long-term process that also enhances evapotranspiration. Thus, the degradation of the alpine grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (releasing carbon) cannot be mainly attributed to the disappearing waterproofing function of permafrost. (letter)

  8. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, P.M.; Betts, R.A.; Jones, C.D.; Spall, S.A.; Totterdell, I.J.

    2000-01-01

    The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO 2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr -1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback. (author)

  9. The responses of a forest model to serial correlations of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Y.; Pastor, J.

    1991-01-01

    Predictions of CO 2 -inducing changes to climate have focused on equilibrial responses of the global climate system to different levels of trace-gas forcings. The authors forced a forest ecosystem model with linear changes in temperature and precipitation and varied the degree of serial correlation around mean values. The ecosystem model considers the establishment and growth of individual trees in a 1/12 haplot and their responses to degree days, soil water deficits, soil nitrogen availability, and light. A recent formal analysis indicates that the model output is more sensitive to changes in means and variances of temperature, as opposed to precipitation. Of particular interest to the current paper is the assumption that the probability of mortality increases from about 10% to 30% upon two consecutive years of slow growth due to stress. Thus, year-to-year serial correlations could potentially increase mortality compared with random variation between years. Using this model, Pastor and Post (1988) showed that the forests of the boreal-northern hardwood transition zone in the Lake Superior region are particularly sensitive to climate warming

  10. Implementation of methane cycling for deep time, global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth System Model (Version 1.2)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Villanueva, Esteban Fernández; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2017-01-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth System over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes....... With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, time scales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep time, global warming events....

  11. Control of Warm Compression Stations Using Model Predictive Control: Simulation and Experimental Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonne, F.; Alamir, M.; Bonnay, P.

    2017-02-01

    This paper deals with multivariable constrained model predictive control for Warm Compression Stations (WCS). WCSs are subject to numerous constraints (limits on pressures, actuators) that need to be satisfied using appropriate algorithms. The strategy is to replace all the PID loops controlling the WCS with an optimally designed model-based multivariable loop. This new strategy leads to high stability and fast disturbance rejection such as those induced by a turbine or a compressor stop, a key-aspect in the case of large scale cryogenic refrigeration. The proposed control scheme can be used to achieve precise control of pressures in normal operation or to avoid reaching stopping criteria (such as excessive pressures) under high disturbances (such as a pulsed heat load expected to take place in future fusion reactors, expected in the cryogenic cooling systems of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor ITER or the Japan Torus-60 Super Advanced fusion experiment JT-60SA). The paper details the simulator used to validate this new control scheme and the associated simulation results on the SBTs WCS. This work is partially supported through the French National Research Agency (ANR), task agreement ANR-13-SEED-0005.

  12. Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2016-12-01

    The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

  13. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  14. Structuring energy supply and demand networks in a general equilibrium model to simulate global warming control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, S.; Veselka, T.D.; Cirillo, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Global warming control strategies which mandate stringent caps on emissions of greenhouse forcing gases can substantially alter a country's demand, production, and imports of energy products. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty when attempting to estimate the potential impact of these strategies, insights into the problem can be acquired through computer model simulations. This paper presents one method of structuring a general equilibrium model, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program/Global Climate Change (ENPEP/GCC), to simulate changes in a country's energy supply and demand balance in response to global warming control strategies. The equilibrium model presented in this study is based on the principle of decomposition, whereby a large complex problem is divided into a number of smaller submodules. Submodules simulate energy activities and conversion processes such as electricity production. These submodules are linked together to form an energy supply and demand network. Linkages identify energy and fuel flows among various activities. Since global warming control strategies can have wide reaching effects, a complex network was constructed. The network represents all energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution, and utilization activities. The structure of the network depicts interdependencies within and across economic sectors and was constructed such that energy prices and demand responses can be simulated. Global warming control alternatives represented in the network include: (1) conservation measures through increased efficiency; and (2) substitution of fuels that have high greenhouse gas emission rates with fuels that have lower emission rates. 6 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  15. Modeling of the branches of the Tsushima Warm Current in the eastern Japan sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawamura, Hideyuki; Ito, Toshimichi; Hirose, Naoki; Yoon, Jong-Hwan; Takikawa, Tetsutaro

    2009-01-01

    The branches of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) are realistically reproduced using a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Simulated structures of the First Branch and the Second Branch of the TWC (FBTWC and SBTWC) in the eastern Japan Sea are mainly addressed in this study, being compared with measurement in the period September-October 2000. This is the first numerical experiment so far in which the OGCM is laterally exerted by real volume transports measured by acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) through the Tsushima Straits and the Tsugaru Strait. In addition, sea level variation measured by tide-stations along the Japanese coast as well as satellite altimeters is assimilated into the OGCM through a sequential data assimilation method. It is demonstrated that the assimilation of sea level variation at the coastal tide-stations is useful in reproducing oceanic conditions in the nearshore region. We also examine the seasonal variation of the branches of the TWC in the eastern Japan Sea in 2000. It is suggested as a consequence that the FBTWC is continuous along northwestern Honshu Island in summertime, while it degenerates along the coast between the Sado Strait and the Oga Peninsula in other seasons. On the other hand, a mainstream of the SBTWC exists with meanders and eddies in the offshore region deeper than 1000 m to the north of the Sado Island throughout the year. (author)

  16. Impact of evolving greenhouse gas forcing on the warming signal in regional climate model experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jerez, S; López-Romero, J M; Turco, M; Jiménez-Guerrero, P; Vautard, R; Montávez, J P

    2018-04-03

    Variations in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) may not be included as external forcing when running regional climate models (RCMs); at least, this is a non-regulated, non-documented practice. Here we investigate the so far unexplored impact of considering the rising evolution of the CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O atmospheric concentrations on near-surface air temperature (TAS) trends, for both the recent past and the near future, as simulated by a state-of-the-art RCM over Europe. The results show that the TAS trends are significantly affected by 1-2 K century -1 , which under 1.5 °C global warming translates into a non-negligible impact of up to 1 K in the regional projections of TAS, similarly affecting projections for maximum and minimum temperatures. In some cases, these differences involve a doubling signal, laying further claim to careful reconsideration of the RCM setups with regard to the inclusion of GHG concentrations as an evolving external forcing which, for the sake of research reproducibility and reliability, should be clearly documented in the literature.

  17. Warm and cold molecular gas conditions modelled in 87 galaxies observed by the Herschel SPIRE Fourier transform spectrometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamenetzky, J.; Rangwala, N.; Glenn, J.

    2017-11-01

    We have conducted two-component, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium modelling of the CO lines from J = 1-0 through J = 13-12 in 87 galaxies observed by the Herschel SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). We find the average pressure of the cold molecular gas, traced especially by CO J = 1-0, is ˜105.0±0.5 K cm-3. The mid- to high-J lines of CO trace higher pressure gas at 106.5 ± 0.6 K cm-3; this pressure is slightly correlated with LFIR. Two components are often necessary to accurately fit the Spectral Line Energy Distributions; a one-component fit often underestimates the flux of carbon monoxide (CO) J = 1-0 and the mass. If low-J lines are not included, mass is underestimated by an order of magnitude. Even when modelling the low-J lines alone or using an αCO conversion factor, the mass should be considered to be uncertain to a factor of at least 0.4 dex, and the vast majority of the CO luminosity will be missed (median, 65 per cent). We find a very large spread in our derived values of αCO, though they do not have a discernible trend with LFIR; the best fit is a constant 0.7 M⊙ (K km s- 1 pc2)-1, with a standard deviation of 0.36 dex, and a range of 0.3-1.6 M⊙ (K km s- 1 pc2)-1. We find average molecular gas depletion times (τdep) of 108 yr that decrease with increasing star formation rate. Finally, we note that the J = 11-10/J = 1-0 line flux ratio is diagnostic of the warm component pressure, and discuss the implications of this comprehensive study of SPIRE FTS extragalactic spectra for future study post-Herschel.

  18. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2018-06-01

    We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

  19. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2017-09-01

    We have investigated the causes of the sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone (ABFZ) of the southeastern Atlantic Ocean simulated by the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). Similar to other coupled-models, NorESM has a warm SST bias in the ABFZ of up to 8 °C in the annual mean. Our analysis of NorESM reveals that a cyclonic surface wind bias over the ABFZ drives a locally excessively strong southward (0.05 m/s (relative to observation)) Angola Current displacing the ABFZ southward. A series of uncoupled stand-alone atmosphere and ocean model simulations are performed to investigate the cause of the coupled model bias. The stand-alone atmosphere model driven with observed SST exhibits a similar cyclonic surface circulation bias; while the stand-alone ocean model forced with the reanalysis data produces a warm SST in the ABFZ with a magnitude approximately half of that in the coupled NorESM simulation. An additional uncoupled sensitivity experiment shows that the atmospheric model's local negative surface wind curl generates anomalously strong Angola Current at the ocean surface. Consequently, this contributes to the warm SST bias in the ABFZ by 2 °C (compared to the reanalysis forced simulation). There is no evidence that local air-sea feedbacks among wind stress curl, SST, and sea level pressure (SLP) affect the ABFZ SST bias. Turbulent surface heat flux differences between coupled and uncoupled experiments explain the remaining 2 °C warm SST bias in NorESM. Ocean circulation, upwelling and turbulent heat flux errors all modulate the intensity and the seasonality of the ABFZ errors.

  20. Cloud Feedbacks on Greenhouse Warming in a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework with a Higher-Order Turbulence Closure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Anning; Xu, Kuan-Man

    2015-01-01

    Five-year simulation experiments with a multi-scale modeling Framework (MMF) with a advanced intermediately prognostic higher-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) in its cloud resolving model (CRM) component, also known as SPCAM-IPHOC (super parameterized Community Atmospheric Model), are performed to understand the fast tropical (30S-30N) cloud response to an instantaneous doubling of CO2 concentration with SST held fixed at present-day values. SPCAM-IPHOC has substantially improved the low-level representation compared with SPCAM. It is expected that the cloud responses to greenhouse warming in SPCAM-IPHOC is more realistic. The change of rising motion, surface precipitation, cloud cover, and shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing in SPCAM-IPHOC from the greenhouse warming will be presented in the presentation.

  1. Fermi liquid, clustering, and structure factor in dilute warm nuclear matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röpke, G.; Voskresensky, D. N.; Kryukov, I. A.; Blaschke, D.

    2018-02-01

    Properties of nuclear systems at subsaturation densities can be obtained from different approaches. We demonstrate the use of the density autocorrelation function which is related to the isothermal compressibility and, after integration, to the equation of state. This way we connect the Landau Fermi liquid theory well elaborated in nuclear physics with the approaches to dilute nuclear matter describing cluster formation. A quantum statistical approach is presented, based on the cluster decomposition of the polarization function. The fundamental quantity to be calculated is the dynamic structure factor. Comparing with the Landau Fermi liquid theory which is reproduced in lowest approximation, the account of bound state formation and continuum correlations gives the correct low-density result as described by the second virial coefficient and by the mass action law (nuclear statistical equilibrium). Going to higher densities, the inclusion of medium effects is more involved compared with other quantum statistical approaches, but the relation to the Landau Fermi liquid theory gives a promising approach to describe not only thermodynamic but also collective excitations and non-equilibrium properties of nuclear systems in a wide region of the phase diagram.

  2. Theory of factors limiting high gradient operation of warm accelerating structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nusinovich, Gregory S. [University of Maryland; Antonsen, Thomas M. [University of Maryland; Kishek, Rami [University of Maryland

    2014-07-25

    This final report summarizes the research performed during the time period from 8/1/2010 to 7/31/2013. It consists of two parts describing our studies in two directions: (a) analysis of factors limiting operation of dielectric-loaded accelerating (DLA) structures where the main problem is the occurrence of multipactor on dielectric surfaces, and (b) studies of effects associated with either RF magnetic or RF electric fields which may cause the RF breakdown in high-gradient metallic accelerating structures. In the studies of DLA structures, at least, two accomplishments should be mentioned: the development of a 3D non-stationary, self-consistent code describing the multipactor phenomena and yielding very good agreement with some experimental data obtained in joint ANL/NRL experiments. In the metallic structures, such phenomena as the heating and melting of micro-particles (metallic dust) by RF electric and magnetic fields in single-shot and rep-rate regimes is analyzed. Also, such processes in micro-protrusions on the structure surfaces as heating and melting due to the field emitted current and the Nottingham effect are thoroughly investigated with the account for space charge of emitted current on the field emission from the tip.

  3. An innovation resistance factor model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Salwa Mohd Ishak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The process and implementation strategy of information technology in construction is generally considered through the limiting prism of theoretical contexts generated from innovation diffusion and acceptance. This research argues that more attention should be given to understanding the positive effects of resistance. The study develops a theoretical framing for the Integrated Resistance Factor Model (IRFM. The framing uses a combination of diffusion of innovation theory, technology acceptance model and social network perspective. The model is tested to identify the most significant resistance factors using Partial Least Square (PLS technique. All constructs proposed in the model are found to be significant, valid and consistent with the theoretical framework. IRFM is shown to be an effective and appropriate model of user resistance factors. The most critical factors to influence technology resistance in the online project information management system (OPIMS context are: support from leaders and peers, complexity of the technology, compatibility with key work practices; and pre-trial of the technology before it is actually deployed. The study provides a new model for further research in technology innovation specific to the construction industry.

  4. Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with whole-ecosystem models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Gary P; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Gorton, Rebecca; Richardson, Anthony J

    2012-12-01

    An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole-ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  5. Detection of Warming Effects Due to Industrialization: An Accumulated Intervention Model with an Application in Pohang, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryoo, S. B.; Moon, S. E.

    1995-06-01

    Modifications of surface air temperature caused by anthropogenic impacts have received much attention recently because of the heightened interest in climatic change. When an industrial area is constructed, resulting in a large-scale anthropogenic heat source, is it possible to detect the warming effect of the heat source? In this paper, the intensity of warming is estimated in the area of the source. A statistical model is suggested to estimate the warming caused by that anthropogenic heat source. The model used in this study is an accumulated intervention (AI) model that is applied to industrial heat perturbations that occurred in the area. To evaluate the AI model performance, the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset. The data used in this study are the monthly mean temperatures at Pohang, Korea. The AI model was developed based on the data for the 38-year period from 1953 to 1990, and the forecast experiment was carried out with an independent dataset for the 2-year period from 1991 to 1992.

  6. Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin

    2017-09-01

    Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario (the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

  7. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  8. Variations and controlling factors of the coccolith weight in the Western Pacific Warm Pool over the last 200 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Dan; Liu, Chuanlian

    2016-06-01

    Using a coccolith weight analytic software (Particle Analyser), we analyze most abundant coccolith species in a sediment core from the central Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and calculate coccolith size and weight variations over the last 200 ka. These variations are compared with the trends of sea surface temperature (SST), primary productivity (PP), sea surface salinity (SSS), and insolation. Our results demonstrate that the size and weight of the coccoliths varied in response to variations of these factors, and their average total weight is primarily related to the relative abundance of the dominant species GEO ( Gephyrocapsa oceanica). The variation in weight of EMI ( Emiliania huxleyi) and GEE ( Gephyrocapsa ericsonii) are mainly influenced by nutrients, and the variation of GEM ( G. muellerae conformis) and GEO ( G. oceanica) weight are mainly influenced by SST. For all of the taxa weight, PP and SST present apparent precession or semi-precession cycles, we consider that the mono-coccolith weight of the Equatorial Western Pacific is primarily affected by precession drived thermocline and nutricline variation.

  9. Modeling warming predicts a physiological threshold for the extinction of the living fossil frog Calyptocephalella gayi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Marcela A; Novoa-Muñoz, Francisco; Werner, Enrique; Torres, Cristian; Nova, Ricardo

    2017-10-01

    Global climate change will have a greater impact on ectotherms in tropical and subtropical communities than at higher latitudes, because ambient temperatures are closer to the upper thermal limits of species. Amphibian species are highly dependent on external weather conditions, and the effect of global warming on these has been evaluated recently. The Great Chilean frog (Calyptocephalella gayi) is an endemic, monotypic species and genus whose conservation status is considered Vulnerable because of high extraction pressure for human consumption, lack of regulatory measures and comprehension by its consumers. Their populations have also declined due to the loss and destruction of their habitats. C. gayi has not been considered as an object of physiological study, so this large species is not known as one that can adapt to current environmental changes. In this study we analyze the thermoregulatory capacity and thermal efficiency of C. gayi to determine its potential for climatic adaptation. The results indicate that this species is strictly a thermal-conformer; its thermal efficiency and its ability to withstand high temperatures allow it to sustain itself under a climate change scenario, however, it has thermal constraints that do not allow it to withstand temperatures greater than 30°C. By modeling its ontogenetic conditions mathematically, we project that the larvae are not in danger, although there is a group of around 4% which is very close to 30°C, which is the highest temperature recorded for the species. However, about 40% of subadults and approximately 47% of adult frogs will not survive the change of ~7°C projected for the following 85 years, which will affect future generations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Agave as a model CAM crop system for a warming and drying world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, J Ryan

    2015-01-01

    As climate change leads to drier and warmer conditions in semi-arid regions, growing resource-intensive C3 and C4 crops will become more challenging. Such crops will be subjected to increased frequency and intensity of drought and heat stress. However, agaves, even more than pineapple (Ananas comosus) and prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica and related species), typify highly productive plants that will respond favorably to global warming, both in natural and cultivated settings. With nearly 200 species spread throughout the U.S., Mexico, and Central America, agaves have evolved traits, including crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM), that allow them to survive extreme heat and drought. Agaves have been used as sources of food, beverage, and fiber by societies for hundreds of years. The varied uses of Agave, combined with its unique adaptations to environmental stress, warrant its consideration as a model CAM crop. Besides the damaging cycles of surplus and shortage that have long beset the tequila industry, the relatively long maturation cycle of Agave, its monocarpic flowering habit, and unique morphology comprise the biggest barriers to its widespread use as a crop suitable for mechanized production. Despite these challenges, agaves exhibit potential as crops since they can be grown on marginal lands, but with more resource input than is widely assumed. If these constraints can be reconciled, Agave shows considerable promise as an alternative source for food, alternative sweeteners, and even bioenergy. And despite the many unknowns regarding agaves, they provide a means to resolve disparities in resource availability and needs between natural and human systems in semi-arid regions.

  11. Agave as a model CAM crop system for a warming and drying world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Ryan eStewart

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available As climate change leads to drier and warmer conditions in semi-arid regions, growing resource-intensive C3 and C4 crops will become more challenging. Such crops will be subjected to increased frequency and intensity of drought and heat stress. However, agaves, even more than pineapple (Ananas comosus and prickly pear (Opuntia ficus-indica and related species, typify highly productive plants that will respond favorably to global warming, both in natural and cultivated settings. With nearly 200 species spread throughout the U.S., Mexico, and Central America, agaves have evolved traits, including crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM, that allow them to survive extreme heat and drought. Agaves have been used as sources of food, beverage, and fiber by societies for hundreds of years. The varied uses of Agave, combined with its unique adaptations to environmental stress, warrant its consideration as a model CAM crop. Besides the damaging cycles of surplus and shortage that have long beset the tequila industry, the relatively long maturation cycle of Agave, its monocarpic flowering habit, and unique morphology comprise the biggest barriers to its widespread use as a crop suitable for mechanized production. Despite these challenges, agaves exhibit potential as crops since they can be grown on marginal lands, but with more resource input than is widely assumed. If these constraints can be reconciled, Agave shows considerable promise as an alternative source for food, alternative sweeteners, and even bioenergy. And despite the many unknowns regarding agaves, they provide a means to resolve disparities between natural and human systems in semi-arid regions.

  12. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1 shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  13. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

    2012-03-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

  14. Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

  15. Sensitivity of the Humboldt current system to global warming: a downscaling experiment of the IPSL-CM4 model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Echevin, Vincent [LOCEAN, Paris (France); Goubanova, Katerina; Dewitte, Boris [LEGOS, Toulouse (France); IMARPE, IGP, LEGOS, Lima (Peru); Belmadani, Ali [LOCEAN, Paris (France); LEGOS, Toulouse (France); University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, Honolulu, Hawaii (United States)

    2012-02-15

    The impact of climate warming on the seasonal variability of the Humboldt Current system ocean dynamics is investigated. The IPSL-CM4 large scale ocean circulation resulting from two contrasted climate scenarios, the so-called Preindustrial and quadrupling CO{sub 2}, are downscaled using an eddy-resolving regional ocean circulation model. The intense surface heating by the atmosphere in the quadrupling CO{sub 2} scenario leads to a strong increase of the surface density stratification, a thinner coastal jet, an enhanced Peru-Chile undercurrent, and an intensification of nearshore turbulence. Upwelling rates respond quasi-linearly to the change in wind stress associated with anthropogenic forcing, and show a moderate decrease in summer off Peru and a strong increase off Chile. Results from sensitivity experiments show that a 50% wind stress increase does not compensate for the surface warming resulting from heat flux forcing and that the associated mesoscale turbulence increase is a robust feature. (orig.)

  16. Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

  17. Prediction of mechanical properties of a warm compacted molybdenum prealloy using artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zare, Mansour; Vahdati Khaki, Jalil

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► ANNs and ANFIS fairly predicted UTS and YS of warm compacted molybdenum prealloy. ► Effects of composition, temperature, compaction pressure on output were studied. ► ANFIS model was in better agreement with experimental data from published article. ► Sintering temperature had the most significant effect on UTS and YS. -- Abstract: Predictive models using artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) were successfully developed to predict yield strength and ultimate tensile strength of warm compacted 0.85 wt.% molybdenum prealloy samples. To construct these models, 48 different experimental data were gathered from the literature. A portion of the data set was randomly chosen to train both ANN with back propagation (BP) learning algorithm and ANFIS model with Gaussian membership function and the rest was implemented to verify the performance of the trained network against the unseen data. The generalization capability of the networks was also evaluated by applying new input data within the domain covered by the training pattern. To compare the obtained results, coefficient of determination (R 2 ), root mean squared error (RMSE) and average absolute error (AAE) indexes were chosen and calculated for both of the models. The results showed that artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy system were both potentially strong for prediction of the mechanical properties of warm compacted 0.85 wt.% molybdenum prealloy; however, the proposed ANFIS showed better performance than the ANN model. Also, the ANFIS model was subjected to a sensitivity analysis to find the significant inputs affecting mechanical properties of the samples.

  18. Factors affecting spatial variation of annual apparent Q₁₀ of soil respiration in two warm temperate forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junwei Luan

    Full Text Available A range of factors has been identified that affect the temperature sensitivity (Q₁₀ values of the soil-to-atmosphere CO₂ flux. However, the factors influencing the spatial distribution of Q₁₀ values within warm temperate forests are poorly understood. In this study, we examined the spatial variation of Q₁₀ values and its controlling factors in both a naturally regenerated oak forest (OF and a pine plantation (PP. Q₁₀ values were determined based on monthly soil respiration (R(S measurements at 35 subplots for each stand from Oct. 2008 to Oct. 2009. Large spatial variation of Q₁₀ values was found in both OF and PP, with their respective ranges from 1.7 to 5.12 and from 2.3 to 6.21. In PP, fine root biomass (FR (R = 0.50, P = 0.002, non-capillary porosity (NCP (R = 0.37, P = 0.03, and the coefficients of variation of soil temperature at 5 cm depth (CV of T₅ (R = -0.43, P = 0.01 well explained the spatial variance of Q₁₀. In OF, carbon pool lability reflected by light fractionation method (LLFOC well explained the spatial variance of Q₁₀ (R = -0.35, P = 0.04. Regardless of forest type, LLFOC and FR correlation with the Q₁₀ values were significant and marginally significant, respectively; suggesting a positive relationship between substrate availability and apparent Q₁₀ values. Parameters related to gas diffusion, such as average soil water content (SWC and NCP, negatively or positively explained the spatial variance of Q₁₀ values. Additionally, we observed significantly higher apparent Q₁₀ values in PP compared to OF, which might be partly attributed to the difference in soil moisture condition and diffusion ability, rather than different substrate availabilities between forests. Our results suggested that both soil chemical and physical characters contributed to the observed large Q₁₀ value variation.

  19. Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Xiaojun; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying

    2017-05-01

    Simulation and projection of the characteristics of heat waves over China were investigated using 12 CMIP5 global climate models and the CN05.1 observational gridded dataset. Four heat wave indices (heat wave frequency, longest heat wave duration, heat wave days, and high temperature days) were adopted in the analysis. Evaluations of the 12 CMIP5 models and their ensemble indicated that the multi-model ensemble could capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave variation over China. The inter-decadal variations of heat waves during 1961-2005 can be well simulated by multi-model ensemble. Based on model projections, the features of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 °C) were explored. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase more dramatically as the global mean temperature rise attained higher warming targets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the four China-averaged heat wave indices would increase from about 1.0 times/year, 2.5, 5.4, and 13.8 days/year to about 3.2 times/year, 14.0, 32.0, and 31.9 days/year for 1.5 and 5.0 °C warming targets, respectively. Those regions that suffer severe heat waves in the base climate would experience the heat waves with greater frequency and severity following global temperature rise. It is also noteworthy that the areas in which a greater number of severe heat waves occur displayed considerable expansion. Moreover, the model uncertainties exhibit a gradual enhancement with projected time extending from 2006 to 2099.

  20. Absence of “Warm-Up” during Active Avoidance Learning in a Rat Model of Anxiety Vulnerability: Insights from Computational Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Catherine E.; Smith, Ian M.; Servatius, Richard J.; Beck, Kevin D.

    2014-01-01

    Avoidance behaviors, in which a learned response causes omission of an upcoming punisher, are a core feature of many psychiatric disorders. While reinforcement learning (RL) models have been widely used to study the development of appetitive behaviors, less attention has been paid to avoidance. Here, we present a RL model of lever-press avoidance learning in Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats and in the inbred Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat, which has been proposed as a model of anxiety vulnerability. We focus on “warm-up,” transiently decreased avoidance responding at the start of a testing session, which is shown by SD but not WKY rats. We first show that a RL model can correctly simulate key aspects of acquisition, extinction, and warm-up in SD rats; we then show that WKY behavior can be simulated by altering three model parameters, which respectively govern the tendency to explore new behaviors vs. exploit previously reinforced ones, the tendency to repeat previous behaviors regardless of reinforcement, and the learning rate for predicting future outcomes. This suggests that several, dissociable mechanisms may contribute independently to strain differences in behavior. The model predicts that, if the “standard” inter-session interval is shortened from 48 to 24 h, SD rats (but not WKY) will continue to show warm-up; we confirm this prediction in an empirical study with SD and WKY rats. The model further predicts that SD rats will continue to show warm-up with inter-session intervals as short as a few minutes, while WKY rats will not show warm-up, even with inter-session intervals as long as a month. Together, the modeling and empirical data indicate that strain differences in warm-up are qualitative rather than just the result of differential sensitivity to task variables. Understanding the mechanisms that govern expression of warm-up behavior in avoidance may lead to better understanding of pathological avoidance, and potential pathways to modify these processes. PMID

  1. Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; J. P. Dunne; J. John

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., su...

  2. Optimization Model for Mitigating Global Warming at the Farm Scale: An Application to Japanese Rice Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyotaka Masuda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In Japan, greenhouse gas emissions from rice production, especially CH4 emissions in rice paddy fields, are the primary contributors to global warming from agriculture. When prolonged midseason drainage for mitigating CH4 emissions from rice paddy fields is practiced with environmentally friendly rice production based on reduced use of synthetic pesticides and chemical fertilizers, Japanese rice farmers can receive an agri-environmental direct payment. This paper examines the economic and environmental effects of the agri-environmental direct payment on the adoption of a measure to mitigate global warming in Japanese rice farms using a combined application of linear programming and life cycle assessment at the farm scale. Eco-efficiency, which is defined as net farm income divided by global warming potential, is used as an integrated indicator for assessing the economic and environmental feasibilities. The results show that under the current direct payment level, the prolonged midseason drainage technique does not improve the eco-efficiency of Japanese rice farms because the practice of this technique in environmentally friendly rice production causes large economic disadvantages in exchange for small environmental advantages. The direct payment rates for agri-environmental measures should be determined based on the condition that environmentally friendly agricultural practices improve eco-efficiency compared with conventional agriculture.

  3. Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

    2017-12-01

    Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

  4. Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes Over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the topics. Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate model simulate processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and clouds systems. The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momentum budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysics scheme.

  5. An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooley, Sarah R; Rheuban, Jennie E; Hart, Deborah R; Luu, Victoria; Glover, David M; Hare, Jonathan A; Doney, Scott C

    2015-01-01

    Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean

  6. Observation and Schmid factor analysis of multiple twins in a warm-rolled Mg–3Al–1Zn alloy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xin, Renlong; Wang, Maoyin; Huang, Xiaoxu

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to understand the features of twinning that occurred during warm-rolling of Mg–3Al–1Zn alloys. The rolling was performed at 150 °C with the c-axis of most grains nearly parallel to the transverse direction. Electron backscatter diffraction analysis was conducted to examine...

  7. Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

    The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

  8. Low Cloud Feedback to Surface Warming in the World's First Global Climate Model with Explicit Embedded Boundary Layer Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parishani, H.; Pritchard, M. S.; Bretherton, C. S.; Wyant, M. C.; Khairoutdinov, M.; Singh, B.

    2017-12-01

    Biases and parameterization formulation uncertainties in the representation of boundary layer clouds remain a leading source of possible systematic error in climate projections. Here we show the first results of cloud feedback to +4K SST warming in a new experimental climate model, the ``Ultra-Parameterized (UP)'' Community Atmosphere Model, UPCAM. We have developed UPCAM as an unusually high-resolution implementation of cloud superparameterization (SP) in which a global set of cloud resolving arrays is embedded in a host global climate model. In UP, the cloud-resolving scale includes sufficient internal resolution to explicitly generate the turbulent eddies that form marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus clouds. This is computationally costly but complements other available approaches for studying low clouds and their climate interaction, by avoiding parameterization of the relevant scales. In a recent publication we have shown that UP, while not without its own complexity trade-offs, can produce encouraging improvements in low cloud climatology in multi-month simulations of the present climate and is a promising target for exascale computing (Parishani et al. 2017). Here we show results of its low cloud feedback to warming in multi-year simulations for the first time. References: Parishani, H., M. S. Pritchard, C. S. Bretherton, M. C. Wyant, and M. Khairoutdinov (2017), Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, doi:10.1002/2017MS000968.

  9. Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

    2013-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led

  10. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  11. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies implies ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the climate. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the aboveground and belowground responses to warming and nitrogen addition in high-latitude ecosystems, and identified absent or poorly parameterized mechanisms in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar soil carbon stock trajectories following both warming and nitrogen addition, other predicted variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differed from observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating that CLM4.5 has inadequate underlying mechanisms for representing high-latitude ecosystems. On the basis of observational synthesis, we attribute the model-observation differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, aboveground and belowground coupling, and nutrient cycling, and we use the observational meta-analysis to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models. However, we also urge caution concerning the selection of data sets and experiments for meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average = 72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which precludes a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to likely nitrogen perturbations. Overall, we demonstrate that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in ecosystem models and empirical experiments.

  12. Identifying the important factors in simulation models with many factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettonvil, B.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1994-01-01

    Simulation models may have many parameters and input variables (together called factors), while only a few factors are really important (parsimony principle). For such models this paper presents an effective and efficient screening technique to identify and estimate those important factors. The

  13. Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to global warming. Part I: model description and role of heat generated by organic matter decomposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khvorostyanov, D.V.; Ciais, G. (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l' Environnement, Saclay (France)); Krinner, G. (Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, St Martin d' Heres (France)). e-mail: Dimitry.Khvorostiyanov@lsce.ipsl.fr; Heimann, M. (Max-Planck Inst. of Biogeochemistry, Jena (DE)); Zimov, S.A. (Northeast Science Station, Cherskii (RU))

    2008-07-01

    We constructed a new model to study the sensitivity of permafrost carbon stocks to future climate warming. The one-dimensional model solves an equation for diffusion of heat penetrating from the overlying atmosphere and takes into account additional in situ heat production by active soil microorganisms. Decomposition of frozen soil organic matter and produced CO{sub 2} and methane fluxes result from an interplay of soil heat conduction and phase transitions, respiration, methanogenesis and methanotrophy processes. Respiration and methanotrophy consume soil oxygen and thus can only develop in an aerated top-soil column. In contrast, methanogenesis is not limited by oxygen and can be sustained within the deep soil, releasing sufficient heat to further thaw in depth the frozen carbon-rich soil organic matter. Heat production that accompanies decomposition and methanotrophy can be an essential process providing positive feedback to atmospheric warming through self-sustaining transformation of initially frozen soil carbon into CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4}. This supplementary heat becomes crucial, however, only under certain climate conditions. Oxygen limitation to soil respiration slows down the process, so that the mean flux of carbon released during the phase of intense decomposition is more than two times less than without oxygen limitation. Taking into account methanogenesis increases the mean carbon flux by 20%. Part II of this study deals with mobilization of frozen carbon stock in transient climate change scenarios with more elaborated methane module, which makes it possible to consider more general cases with various site configurations. Part I (this manuscript) studies mobilization of 400 GtC carbon stock of the Yedoma in response to a stepwise rapid warming focusing on the role of supplementary heat that is released to the soil during decomposition of organic matter

  14. Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry; Goris, Nadine; Six, Katharina D.; Kirkevåg, Alf; Seland, Øyvind; Heinze, Christoph; Ilyina, Tatiana

    2017-08-01

    We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr-1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr-1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by -0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr-1 change in sea-air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

  15. Amplification of global warming through pH dependence of DMS production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Schwinger

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS production due to ocean acidification under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS production to the additional changes in temperature and sea ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an offline model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong sensitivity of DMS production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS emissions are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %. The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in shortwave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0. 041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea–air DMS fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea–air DMS fluxes by about 9 % (15 %, which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

  16. Performance analysis of an implementation of the beam and warming implicit factored scheme on the NCUBE hypercube

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kominsky, P.J.

    1990-01-01

    A production 3-D Beam and Warming implicit Navier-Stokes code has been implemented on the NCUBE hypercube using the grid allocation scheme of Bruno and Capello. Predicted (32-bit) performance on 1024 nodes is 67.1 MFLOPS. Efficiencies of 70% are attainable for implicit algorithms, although constant-memory scaled performance is found to decrease with increasing number of nodes, unlike explicit implementations

  17. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  18. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  19. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  20. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  1. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  2. Robust and Sparse Factor Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Croux, Christophe; Exterkate, Peter

    Factor construction methods are widely used to summarize a large panel of variables by means of a relatively small number of representative factors. We propose a novel factor construction procedure that enjoys the properties of robustness to outliers and of sparsity; that is, having relatively few...... nonzero factor loadings. Compared to the traditional factor construction method, we find that this procedure leads to a favorable forecasting performance in the presence of outliers and to better interpretable factors. We investigate the performance of the method in a Monte Carlo experiment...

  3. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

    2018-01-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  4. Model-based evidence for persistent species zonation shifts in the southern Rocky Mountains under a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, A.; Shuman, J. K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Dwire, K. A.; Fornwalt, P.; Sibold, J.; Negrón, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Forests in the Rocky Mountains are a crucial part of the North American carbon budget, but increases in disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire, in conjunction with climate change, threaten their vitality. Mean annual temperatures in the western United States have increased by 2°C since 1950 and the higher elevations are warming faster than the rest of the landscape. It is predicted that this warming trend will continue, and that by the end of this century, nearly 50% of the western US landscape will have climate profiles with no current analog within that region. Individual tree-based modeling allows various climate change scenarios and their effects on forest dynamics to be tested. We use an updated individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) at a subalpine site in the southern Rocky Mountains. UVAFME has been quantitatively and qualitatively validated in the southern Rocky Mountains, and results show that UVAFME-output on size structure, biomass, and species composition compares reasonably to inventory data and descriptions of vegetation zonation and successional dynamics for the region. We perform a climate sensitivity test in which temperature is first increased linearly by 2°C over 100 years, stabilized for 200 years, cooled back to present climate values over 100 years, and again stabilized for 200 years. This test is conducted to determine what effect elevated temperatures may have on vegetation zonation, and how persistent the changes may be if the climate is brought back to its current state. Results show that elevated temperatures within the southern Rocky Mountains may lead to decreases in biomass and changes in species composition as species migrate upslope. These changes are also likely to be fairly persistent for at least one- to two-hundred years. The results from this study suggest that UVAFME and other individual-based gap models can be used to inform forest management and climate mitigation

  5. Sparse and Robust Factor Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Croux (Christophe); P. Exterkate (Peter)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractFactor construction methods are widely used to summarize a large panel of variables by means of a relatively small number of representative factors. We propose a novel factor construction procedure that enjoys the properties of robustness to outliers and of sparsity; that is, having

  6. Development of a cloud microphysical model and parameterizations to describe the effect of CCN on warm cloud

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kuba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, a hybrid cloud microphysical model was developed that incorporates both Lagrangian and Eulerian frameworks to study quantitatively the effect of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN on the precipitation of warm clouds. A parcel model and a grid model comprise the cloud model. The condensation growth of CCN in each parcel is estimated in a Lagrangian framework. Changes in cloud droplet size distribution arising from condensation and coalescence are calculated on grid points using a two-moment bin method in a semi-Lagrangian framework. Sedimentation and advection are estimated in the Eulerian framework between grid points. Results from the cloud model show that an increase in the number of CCN affects both the amount and the area of precipitation. Additionally, results from the hybrid microphysical model and Kessler's parameterization were compared. Second, new parameterizations were developed that estimate the number and size distribution of cloud droplets given the updraft velocity and the number of CCN. The parameterizations were derived from the results of numerous numerical experiments that used the cloud microphysical parcel model. The input information of CCN for these parameterizations is only several values of CCN spectrum (they are given by CCN counter for example. It is more convenient than conventional parameterizations those need values concerned with CCN spectrum, C and k in the equation of N=CSk, or, breadth, total number and median radius, for example. The new parameterizations' predictions of initial cloud droplet size distribution for the bin method were verified by using the aforesaid hybrid microphysical model. The newly developed parameterizations will save computing time, and can effectively approximate components of cloud microphysics in a non-hydrostatic cloud model. The parameterizations are useful not only in the bin method in the regional cloud-resolving model but also both for a two-moment bulk microphysical model and

  7. Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyamoto, K.

    2005-12-01

    I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

  8. Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

    2018-05-01

    An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

  9. Finite element simulation of aluminum sheet warm forming using alflow hardening model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kurukuri, S.; van den Boogaard, Antonius H.; Huetink, Han

    2007-01-01

    In order to accurately model the plastic deformation of Aluminum sheet at elevated temperatures, a model is required that incorporate the temperature and strain rate dependency of the material. In this article, two physically based models are compared: Bergstr¨om and Alflow model. Although both

  10. A simple global carbon and energy coupled cycle model for global warming simulation: sensitivity to the light saturation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichii, Kazuhito; Murakami, Kazutaka; Mukai, Toshikazu; Yamaguchi, Yasushi; Ogawa, Katsuro

    2003-01-01

    A simple Earth system model, the Four-Spheres Cycle of Energy and Mass (4-SCEM) model, has been developed to simulate global warming due to anthropogenic CO 2 emission. The model consists of the Atmosphere-Earth Heat Cycle (AEHC) model, the Four Spheres Carbon Cycle (4-SCC) model, and their feedback processes. The AEHC model is a one-dimensional radiative convective model, which includes the greenhouse effect of CO 2 and H 2 O, and one cloud layer. The 4-SCC model is a box-type carbon cycle model, which includes biospheric CO 2 fertilization, vegetation area variation, the vegetation light saturation effect and the HILDA oceanic carbon cycle model. The feedback processes between carbon cycle and climate considered in the model are temperature dependencies of water vapor content, soil decomposition and ocean surface chemistry. The future status of the global carbon cycle and climate was simulated up to the year 2100 based on the 'business as usual' (IS92a) emission scenario, followed by a linear decline in emissions to zero in the year 2200. The atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaches 645 ppmv in 2100 and a peak of 760 ppmv approximately in the year 2170, and becomes a steady state with 600 ppmv. The projected CO 2 concentration was lower than those of the past carbon cycle studies, because we included the light saturation effect of vegetation. The sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties derived from the light saturation effect of vegetation and land use CO 2 emissions were the primary cause of uncertainties in projecting future CO 2 concentrations. The climate feedback effects showed rather small sensitivities compared with the impacts of those two effects. Satellite-based net primary production trends analyses can somewhat decrease the uncertainty in quantifying CO 2 emissions due to land use changes. On the other hand, as the estimated parameter in vegetation light saturation was poorly constrained, we have to quantify and constrain the effect more

  11. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  12. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  13. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  14. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-06

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  15. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

    2017-12-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  16. Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Hyoung-Moon

    2015-12-21

    Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.

  17. Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms

    KAUST Repository

    Kim, Hyoung-Moon; Maadooliat, Mehdi; Arellano-Valle, Reinaldo B.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.

  18. Modeling warm dense matter experiments using the 3D ALE-AMR code and the move toward exascale computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koniges, A.; Liu, W.; Barnard, J.; Friedman, A.; Logan, G.; Eder, D.; Fisher, A.; Masters, N.; Bertozzi, A.

    2013-01-01

    The Neutralized Drift Compression Experiment II (NDCX II) is an induction accelerator planned for initial commissioning in 2012. The final design calls for a 3 MeV, Li + ion beam, delivered in a bunch with characteristic pulse duration of 1 ns, and transverse dimension of order 1 mm. The NDCX II will be used in studies of material in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime, and ion beam/hydrodynamic coupling experiments relevant to heavy ion based inertial fusion energy. We discuss recent efforts to adapt the 3D ALE-AMR code to model WDM experiments on NDCX II. The code, which combines Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) hydrodynamics with Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR), has physics models that include ion deposition, radiation hydrodynamics, thermal diffusion, anisotropic material strength with material time history, and advanced models for fragmentation. Experiments at NDCX-II will explore the process of bubble and droplet formation (two-phase expansion) of superheated metal solids using ion beams. Experiments at higher temperatures will explore equation of state and heavy ion fusion beam-to-target energy coupling efficiency. Ion beams allow precise control of local beam energy deposition providing uniform volumetric heating on a timescale shorter than that of hydrodynamic expansion. We also briefly discuss the effects of the move to exascale computing and related computational changes on general modeling codes in fusion. (authors)

  19. Modeling Impacts of Alternative Practices on Net Global Warming Potential and Greenhouse Gas Intensity from Rice–Wheat Annual Rotation in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jinyang; Zhang, Xiaolin; Liu, Yinglie; Pan, Xiaojian; Liu, Pingli; Chen, Zhaozhi; Huang, Taiqing; Xiong, Zhengqin

    2012-01-01

    Background Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. Materials and Methods Measured data of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model to a winter wheat – single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year) impacts on net global warming potential (GWP) and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI). Principal Results The simulated cumulative CH4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH4 and N2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1) high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH4 emissions, (2) high inorganic N fertilizer increased N2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N2O emissions, (3) the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR) under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha−1 yr−1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4) the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. Conclusions In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified cropping system. PMID

  20. Modeling impacts of alternative practices on net global warming potential and greenhouse gas intensity from rice-wheat annual rotation in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyang Wang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Evaluating the net exchange of greenhouse gas (GHG emissions in conjunction with soil carbon sequestration may give a comprehensive insight on the role of agricultural production in global warming. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Measured data of methane (CH(4 and nitrous oxide (N(2O were utilized to test the applicability of the Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC model to a winter wheat - single rice rotation system in southern China. Six alternative scenarios were simulated against the baseline scenario to evaluate their long-term (45-year impacts on net global warming potential (GWP and greenhouse gas intensity (GHGI. PRINCIPAL RESULTS: The simulated cumulative CH(4 emissions fell within the statistical deviation ranges of the field data, with the exception of N(2O emissions during rice-growing season and both gases from the control treatment. Sensitivity tests showed that both CH(4 and N(2O emissions were significantly affected by changes in both environmental factors and management practices. Compared with the baseline scenario, the long-term simulation had the following results: (1 high straw return and manure amendment scenarios greatly increased CH(4 emissions, while other scenarios had similar CH(4 emissions, (2 high inorganic N fertilizer increased N(2O emissions while manure amendment and reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenarios decreased N(2O emissions, (3 the mean annual soil organic carbon sequestration rates (SOCSR under manure amendment, high straw return, and no-tillage scenarios averaged 0.20 t C ha(-1 yr(-1, being greater than other scenarios, and (4 the reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario produced the least N loss from the system, while all the scenarios produced comparable grain yields. CONCLUSIONS: In terms of net GWP and GHGI for the comprehensive assessment of climate change and crop production, reduced inorganic N fertilizer scenario followed by no-tillage scenario would be advocated for this specified

  1. Modeling Ability Differentiation in the Second-Order Factor Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Dylan; Dolan, Conor V.; van der Maas, Han L. J.

    2011-01-01

    In this article we present factor models to test for ability differentiation. Ability differentiation predicts that the size of IQ subtest correlations decreases as a function of the general intelligence factor. In the Schmid-Leiman decomposition of the second-order factor model, we model differentiation by introducing heteroscedastic residuals,…

  2. Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to Simulate the Response of Vegetation to Warming at the Paleocene-Eocene Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shellito, C. J.; Sloan, L. C.

    2004-12-01

    A major turnover in benthic marine and terrestrial fauna marks the Initial Eocene Thermal Maximum (IETM) (~55Ma), a period of ~150 ky in which there was a rapid rise in deep sea and high latitude sea surface temperatures by 5-8C. Curiously, no major responses to this warming in the terrestrial floral record have been detected to date. Here, we present results from experiments examining the response of the global distribution of vegetation to changes in climate at the IETM using the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). DGVMs allow vegetation to respond to and interact with climate, and thus, provide a unique new method for addressing questions regarding feedbacks between the ecosystem and climate in Earth's past. However, there are a number of drawbacks to using these models that can affect interpretation of results. More specifically, these drawbacks involve uncertainties in the application of modern plant functional types to paleo-flora simulations, inaccuracies in the model climatology used to drive the DGVM, and lack of available detail regarding paleo-geography and paleo-soil type for use in model boundary conditions. For a better understanding of these drawbacks, we present results from a series of tests in the NCAR LSM-DGVM which examine (1) the effect of removing C4 grasses from the available plant functional types in the model; (2) model sensitivity to a change in soil texture; and (3), model sensitivity to a change in the value of pCO2 used in the photosynthetic rate equations. We consider our DGVM results for the IETM in light of output from these sensitivity experiments.

  3. Meta-analysis of high-latitude nitrogen-addition and warming studies imply ecological mechanisms overlooked by land models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouskill, N. J.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

    2014-08-01

    Accurate representation of ecosystem processes in land models is crucial for reducing predictive uncertainty in energy and greenhouse gas feedbacks with the atmosphere. Here we describe an observational and modeling meta-analysis approach to benchmark land models, and apply the method to the land model CLM4.5 with two versions of belowground biogeochemistry. We focused our analysis on the above and belowground high-latitude ecosystem responses to warming and nitrogen addition, and identified mechanisms absent, or poorly parameterized in CLM4.5. While the two model versions predicted similar trajectories for soil carbon stocks following both types of perturbation, other variables (e.g., belowground respiration) differed from the observations in both magnitude and direction, indicating the underlying mechanisms are inadequate for representing high-latitude ecosystems. The observational synthesis attribute these differences to missing representations of microbial dynamics, characterization of above and belowground functional processes, and nutrient competition. We use the observational meta-analyses to discuss potential approaches to improving the current models (e.g., the inclusion of dynamic vegetation or different microbial functional guilds), however, we also raise a cautionary note on the selection of data sets and experiments to be included in a meta-analysis. For example, the concentrations of nitrogen applied in the synthesized field experiments (average =72 kg ha-1 yr-1) are many times higher than projected soil nitrogen concentrations (from nitrogen deposition and release during mineralization), which preclude a rigorous evaluation of the model responses to nitrogen perturbation. Overall, we demonstrate here that elucidating ecological mechanisms via meta-analysis can identify deficiencies in both ecosystem models and empirical experiments.

  4. "Home Made" Model to Study the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorato, P.; Mascheretti, P.; DeAmbrosis, A.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper a simplified two-parameter model of the greenhouse effect on the Earth is developed, starting from the well known two-layer model. It allows both the analysis of the temperatures of the inner planets, by focusing on the role of the greenhouse effect, and a comparison between the temperatures the planets should have in the absence of…

  5. Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    1997-01-01

    A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the

  6. Critical behavior of mean-field hadronic models for warm nuclear matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, J.B.; Lourenco, O.; Delfino, A.; Martins, J.S. Sa; Dutra, M.

    2008-01-01

    We study a set of hadronic mean-field models in the liquid-gas phase transition regime and calculate their critical parameters. The discussion is unified by scaling the coexistence curves in terms of these critical parameters. We study the models close to spinodal points, where they also present critical behavior. Inspired by signals of criticality shown in fragmentation experiments, we analyze two different scenarios in which such behavior would be expected: (i) the stability limits of a metastable system with vanishing external pressure; and (ii) the critical point of a gas-liquid phase equilibrium system for which the Maxwell construction applies. Spinodal and coexistence curves show the regions in which model dependence arises. Unexpectedly, this model dependence does not manifest if one calculates the thermal incompressibility of the models

  7. Shifts in the Physiology and Stoichiometric Needs of Soil Microbial Communities from Subarctic Soils in Response to Warming: Icelandic Geothermal Gradients as a Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marañón-Jiménez, S.; Soong, J.; Leblans, N. I. W.; Sigurdsson, B. D.; Peñuelas, J.; Richter, A.; Asensio, D.; Fransen, E.; Janssens, I. A.

    2017-12-01

    functioning and stoichiometric needs into models, in order to accurately predict future changes in soil C stocks in response to global warming.

  8. A numerical modeling study of the East Australian Current encircling and overwashing a warm-core eddy

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, H. S.; Roughan, M.; Baird, M. E.; Wilkin, J.

    2013-01-01

    AbstractWarm-core eddies (WCEs) often form in the meanders of Western Boundary Currents (WBCs). WCEs are frequently overwashed with less dense waters sourced from the WBC. We use the Regional Ocean Modelling System to investigate the ocean state during the overwashing of one such WCE in October 2008 in the East Australian Current (EAC). Comparisons of model outputs with satellite sea surface temperature and vertical profiles show that the model provides a realistic simulation of the eddy during the period when the EAC encircled and then overwashed the eddy. During the encircling stage, an eddy with closed circulation persisted at depth. In the surface EAC water entered from the north, encircled the eddy and exited to the east. The overwashing stage was initiated by the expulsion of cyclonic vorticity. For the following 8 days after the expulsion, waters from the EAC washed over the top of the eddy, transferring heat and anticyclonic vorticity radially-inward. After approximately one rotation period of overwashing, the eddy separated. The overwashing creates a two-layer system that forms a subsurface maximum velocity at the interface of the two layers. Analysis of water mass properties, Eulerian tracer dynamics, and Lagrangian particle tracks show that the original eddy sinks 10-50 m during the overwashing period. Overwashing has been observed in many WBCs and occurs in most WCEs in the western Tasman Sea.

  9. A comparison of least squares linear regression and measurement error modeling of warm/cold multipole correlation in SSC prototype dipole magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollock, D.; Kim, K.; Gunst, R.; Schucany, W.

    1993-05-01

    Linear estimation of cold magnetic field quality based on warm multipole measurements is being considered as a quality control method for SSC production magnet acceptance. To investigate prediction uncertainties associated with such an approach, axial-scan (Z-scan) magnetic measurements from SSC Prototype Collider Dipole Magnets (CDM's) have been studied. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the explanatory ability of warm measurement multipole variation on the prediction of cold magnet multipoles. Two linear estimation methods are presented: least-squares regression, which uses the assumption of fixed independent variable (xi) observations, and the measurement error model, which includes measurement error in the xi's. The influence of warm multipole measurement errors on predicted cold magnet multipole averages is considered. MSD QA is studying warm/cold correlation to answer several magnet quality control questions. How well do warm measurements predict cold (2kA) multipoles? Does sampling error significantly influence estimates of the linear coefficients (slope, intercept and residual standard error)? Is estimation error for the predicted cold magnet average small compared to typical variation along the Z-Axis? What fraction of the multipole RMS tolerance is accounted for by individual magnet prediction uncertainty?

  10. Modeling Warm Dense Matter Experiments using the 3D ALE-AMR Code and the Move Toward Exascale Computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koniges, A.; Eder, E.; Liu, W.; Barnard, J.; Friedman, A.; Logan, G.; Fisher, A.; Masers, N.; Bertozzi, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Neutralized Drift Compression Experiment II (NDCX II) is an induction accelerator planned for initial commissioning in 2012. The final design calls for a 3 MeV, Li+ ion beam, delivered in a bunch with characteristic pulse duration of 1 ns, and transverse dimension of order 1 mm. The NDCX II will be used in studies of material in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime, and ion beam/hydrodynamic coupling experiments relevant to heavy ion based inertial fusion energy. We discuss recent efforts to adapt the 3D ALE-AMR code to model WDM experiments on NDCX II. The code, which combines Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) hydrodynamics with Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR), has physics models that include ion deposition, radiation hydrodynamics, thermal diffusion, anisotropic material strength with material time history, and advanced models for fragmentation. Experiments at NDCX-II will explore the process of bubble and droplet formation (two-phase expansion) of superheated metal solids using ion beams. Experiments at higher temperatures will explore equation of state and heavy ion fusion beam-to-target energy coupling efficiency. Ion beams allow precise control of local beam energy deposition providing uniform volumetric heating on a timescale shorter than that of hydrodynamic expansion. The ALE-AMR code does not have any export control restrictions and is currently running at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) at LBNL and has been shown to scale well to thousands of CPUs. New surface tension models that are being implemented and applied to WDM experiments. Some of the approaches use a diffuse interface surface tension model that is based on the advective Cahn-Hilliard equations, which allows for droplet breakup in divergent velocity fields without the need for imposed perturbations. Other methods require seeding or other methods for droplet breakup. We also briefly discuss the effects of the move to exascale computing and related

  11. Mixed layer modeling in the East Pacific warm pool during 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Roekel, Luke P.; Maloney, Eric D.

    2012-06-01

    Two vertical mixing models (the modified dynamic instability model of Price et al.; PWP, and K-Profile Parameterizaton; KPP) are used to analyze intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the northeast tropical Pacific near the Costa Rica Dome during boreal summer of 2002. Anomalies in surface latent heat flux and shortwave radiation are the root cause of the three intraseasonal SST oscillations of order 1°C amplitude that occur during this time, although surface stress variations have a significant impact on the third event. A slab ocean model that uses observed monthly varying mixed layer depths and accounts for penetrating shortwave radiation appears to well-simulate the first two SST oscillations, but not the third. The third oscillation is associated with small mixed layer depths (impact these intraseasonal oscillations. These results suggest that a slab ocean coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model, as used in previous studies of east Pacific intraseasonal variability, may not be entirely adequate to realistically simulate SST variations. Further, while most of the results from the PWP and KPP models are similar, some important differences that emerge are discussed.

  12. Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Chaeshin; Do, Younghae; Kim, Yongkuk; Saito, Yasuhisa; Lee, Sun-Dong; Park, Haemo; Lee, Jong-Koo

    2011-06-01

    To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature. We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans. We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures. Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.

  13. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  14. Novel application of ALMANAC: Modelling a functional group, exotic warm-season perennial grasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Introduced perennial C4 grasses such buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare [(L.) Link]) and old world bluestems (OWB), including genera such as Bothriochloa Kuntze, Capillipedium Stapf, and Dichanthium Willemet have the potential to dominate landscapes. A process-based model that realistically simulates ...

  15. CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

    2016-09-01

    Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response

  16. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.

  17. Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

  18. Effects of viscous pressure on warm inflationary generalized cosmic Chaplygin gas model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia, E-mail: msharif.math@pu.edu.pk, E-mail: rabiasaleem1988@yahoo.com [Department of Mathematics, University of the Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Lahore-54590 (Pakistan)

    2014-12-01

    This paper is devoted to study the effects of bulk viscous pressure on an inflationary generalized cosmic Chaplygin gas model using FRW background. The matter contents of the universe are assumed to be inflaton and imperfect fluid. We evaluate inflaton fields, potentials and entropy density for variable as well as constant dissipation and bulk viscous coefficients in weak as well as high dissipative regimes during intermediate era. In order to discuss inflationary perturbations, we evaluate entropy density, scalar (tensor) power spectra, their corresponding spectral indices, tensor-scalar ratio and running of spectral index in terms of inflaton which are constrained using recent Planck, WMAP7 and Bicep2 probes.

  19. Effects of viscous pressure on warm inflationary generalized cosmic Chaplygin gas model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to study the effects of bulk viscous pressure on an inflationary generalized cosmic Chaplygin gas model using FRW background. The matter contents of the universe are assumed to be inflaton and imperfect fluid. We evaluate inflaton fields, potentials and entropy density for variable as well as constant dissipation and bulk viscous coefficients in weak as well as high dissipative regimes during intermediate era. In order to discuss inflationary perturbations, we evaluate entropy density, scalar (tensor) power spectra, their corresponding spectral indices, tensor-scalar ratio and running of spectral index in terms of inflaton which are constrained using recent Planck, WMAP7 and Bicep2 probes

  20. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  1. Dormancy release of Norway spruce under climatic warming: testing ecophysiological models of bud burst with a whole-tree chamber experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänninen, Heikki; Slaney, Michelle; Linder, Sune

    2007-02-01

    Ecophysiological models predicting timing of bud burst were tested with data gathered from 40-year-old Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees growing in northern Sweden in whole-tree chambers under climatic conditions predicted to prevail in 2100. Norway spruce trees, with heights between 5 and 7 m, were enclosed in individual chambers that provided a factorial combination of ambient (365 micromol mol-1) or elevated (700 micromol mol-1) atmospheric CO2 concentration, [CO2], and ambient or elevated air temperature. Temperature elevation above ambient ranged from +2.8 degrees C in summer to +5.6 degrees C in winter. Compared with control trees, elevated air temperature hastened bud burst by 2 to 3 weeks, whereas elevated [CO2] had no effect on the timing of bud burst. A simple model based on the assumption that bud rest completion takes place on a fixed calendar day predicted timing of bud burst more accurately than two more complicated models in which bud rest completion is caused by accumulated chilling. Together with some recent studies, the results suggest that, in adult trees, some additional environmental cues besides chilling are required for bud rest completion. Although it appears that these additional factors will protect trees under predicted climatic warming conditions, increased risk of frost damage associated with earlier bud burst cannot be ruled out. Inconsistent and partially anomalous results obtained in the model fitting show that, in addition to phenological data gathered under field conditions, more specific data from growth chamber and greenhouse experiments are needed for further development and testing of the models.

  2. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  3. In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

    2018-02-01

    In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  5. Comparison of Transcription Factor Binding Site Models

    KAUST Repository

    Bhuyan, Sharifulislam

    2012-05-01

    Modeling of transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs) and TFBS prediction on genomic sequences are important steps to elucidate transcription regulatory mechanism. Dependency of transcription regulation on a great number of factors such as chemical specificity, molecular structure, genomic and epigenetic characteristics, long distance interaction, makes this a challenging problem. Different experimental procedures generate evidence that DNA-binding domains of transcription factors show considerable DNA sequence specificity. Probabilistic modeling of TFBSs has been moderately successful in identifying patterns from a family of sequences. In this study, we compare performances of different probabilistic models and try to estimate their efficacy over experimental TFBSs data. We build a pipeline to calculate sensitivity and specificity from aligned TFBS sequences for several probabilistic models, such as Markov chains, hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks. Our work, containing relevant statistics and evaluation for the models, can help researchers to choose the most appropriate model for the problem at hand.

  6. Multi-model ensemble simulations of low flows in Europe under a 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, A.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Zink, M.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.; Pan, M.; Sheffield, J.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will alter water availability in Europe. Here, we investigate how hydrological low flows are affected under different levels of future global warming (i.e., 1.5, 2 and 3 K). The analysis is based on a multi-model ensemble of 45 hydrological simulations based on three RCPs (rcp2p6, rcp6p0, rcp8p5), five CMIP5 GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M) and three state-of-the-art hydrological models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, and PCR-GLOBWB). High resolution model results are available at the unprecedented spatial resolution of 5 km across the pan-European domain at daily temporal resolution. Low river flow is described as the percentile of daily streamflow that is exceeded 90% of the time. It is determined separately for each GCM/HM combinations and the warming scenarios. The results show that the change signal amplifies with increasing warming levels. Low flows decrease in the Mediterranean, while they increase in the Alpine and Northern regions. In the Mediterranean, the level of warming amplifies the signal from -12% under 1.5 K to -35% under 3 K global warming largely due to the projected decreases in annual precipitation. In contrast, the signal is amplified from +22% (1.5 K) to +45% (3 K) because of the reduced snow melt contribution. The changes in low flows are significant for regions with relatively large change signals and under higher levels of warming. Nevertheless, it is not possible to distinguish climate induced differences in low flows between 1.5 and 2 K warming because of the large variability inherent in the multi-model ensemble. The contribution by the GCMs to the uncertainty in the Alpine and Northern region as well as the Mediterranean, the uncertainty contribution by the HMs is partly higher than those by the GCMs due to different representations of processes such as snow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration.

  7. Svalbard as a study model of future High Arctic coastal environments in a warming world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Piskozub

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Svalbard archipelago, a high latitude area in a region undergoing rapid climate change, is relatively easily accessible for field research. This makes the fjords of Spitsbergen, its largest island, some of the best studied Arctic coastal areas. This paper aims at answering the question of how climatically diverse the fjords are, and how representative they are for the expected future Arctic diminishing range of seasonal sea-ice. This study uses a meteorological reanalysis, sea surface temperature climatology, and the results of a recent one-year meteorological campaign in Spitsbergen to determine the seasonal differences between different Spitsbergen fjords, as well as the sea water temperature and ice ranges around Svalbard in recent years. The results show that Spitsbergen fjords have diverse seasonal patterns of air temperature due to differences in the SST of the adjacent ocean, and different cloudiness. The sea water temperatures and ice concentrations around Svalbard in recent years are similar to what is expected most of the Arctic coastal areas in the second half of this century. This makes Spitsbergen a unique field study model of the conditions expected in future warmer High Arctic.

  8. The Five-Factor Model: General Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A A Vorobyeva

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the five-factor model (FFM, giving an overview of its history, basic dimensions, cross-cultural research conducted on the model and highlights some practical studies based on the FFM, including the studies on job performance, leader performance and daily social interactions. An overview of the recent five-factor theory is also provided. According to the theory, the five factors are encoded in human genes, therefore it is almost impossible to change the basic factors themselves, but a person's behavior might be changed due to characteristic adaptations which do not alter personality dimensions, only a person's behavior.

  9. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  10. Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buddemeier, R.W.; Lane, D.R.; Martinich, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo ("COral Mortality and Bleaching Output")] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1-1. 5??C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

  11. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  12. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wehner

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

  13. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-03-01

    The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

  14. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  15. Warm intermediate inflation in the Randall-Sundrum II model in the light of Planck 2015 and BICEP2 results: a general dissipative coefficient

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramon [Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Valparaiso, Instituto de Fisica, Valparaiso (Chile); Videla, Nelson [FCFM, Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Fisica, Santiago (Chile); Olivares, Marco [Universidad Diego Portales, Facultad de Ingenieria, Santiago (Chile)

    2015-05-15

    A warm inflationary Universe in the Randall- Sundrum II model during intermediate inflation is studied. For this purpose, we consider the general form for the dissipative coefficient Γ(T, φ) = C{sub φ}(T{sup m})/(φ{sup m-T}), and also we analyze this inflationary model in the weak and strong dissipative regimes. We study the evolution of the Universe under the slow-roll approximation and find solutions to the full effective Friedmann equation in the brane-world framework. In order to constrain the parameters in our model, we consider the recent data from the BICEP2 to Planck 2015 data together with the necessary condition for warm inflation T > H, and also the condition from the weak (or strong) dissipative regime. (orig.)

  16. Linear factor copula models and their properties

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel; Genton, Marc G.

    2018-01-01

    We consider a special case of factor copula models with additive common factors and independent components. These models are flexible and parsimonious with O(d) parameters where d is the dimension. The linear structure allows one to obtain closed form expressions for some copulas and their extreme‐value limits. These copulas can be used to model data with strong tail dependencies, such as extreme data. We study the dependence properties of these linear factor copula models and derive the corresponding limiting extreme‐value copulas with a factor structure. We show how parameter estimates can be obtained for these copulas and apply one of these copulas to analyse a financial data set.

  17. Linear factor copula models and their properties

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2018-04-25

    We consider a special case of factor copula models with additive common factors and independent components. These models are flexible and parsimonious with O(d) parameters where d is the dimension. The linear structure allows one to obtain closed form expressions for some copulas and their extreme‐value limits. These copulas can be used to model data with strong tail dependencies, such as extreme data. We study the dependence properties of these linear factor copula models and derive the corresponding limiting extreme‐value copulas with a factor structure. We show how parameter estimates can be obtained for these copulas and apply one of these copulas to analyse a financial data set.

  18. A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.

  19. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  20. Modeling the effects of fire severity and climate warming on active layer thickness and soil carbon storage of black spruce forests across the landscape in interior Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Genet, H; Euskirchen, E S; McGuire, A D; Barrett, K; Breen, A; Bennett, A; Rupp, T S; Johnstone, J F; Kasischke, E S; Melvin, A M; Mack, M C; Schuur, A E G; Turetsky, M R; Yuan, F

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial amount of carbon stored in the permafrost soils of boreal forest ecosystems, where it is currently protected from decomposition. The surface organic horizons insulate the deeper soil from variations in atmospheric temperature. The removal of these insulating horizons through consumption by fire increases the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw, and the carbon stored in permafrost to decomposition. In this study we ask how warming and fire regime may influence spatial and temporal changes in active layer and carbon dynamics across a boreal forest landscape in interior Alaska. To address this question, we (1) developed and tested a predictive model of the effect of fire severity on soil organic horizons that depends on landscape-level conditions and (2) used this model to evaluate the long-term consequences of warming and changes in fire regime on active layer and soil carbon dynamics of black spruce forests across interior Alaska. The predictive model of fire severity, designed from the analysis of field observations, reproduces the effect of local topography (landform category, the slope angle and aspect and flow accumulation), weather conditions (drought index, soil moisture) and fire characteristics (day of year and size of the fire) on the reduction of the organic layer caused by fire. The integration of the fire severity model into an ecosystem process-based model allowed us to document the relative importance and interactions among local topography, fire regime and climate warming on active layer and soil carbon dynamics. Lowlands were more resistant to severe fires and climate warming, showing smaller increases in active layer thickness and soil carbon loss compared to drier flat uplands and slopes. In simulations that included the effects of both warming and fire at the regional scale, fire was primarily responsible for a reduction in organic layer thickness of 0.06 m on average by 2100 that led to an increase in active layer thickness

  1. Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Survey on the actual state of utilizing unified evaluation models for global warming; 1999 nendo chikyu ondanka ni kansuru togo hyoka model no katsuyo jittai ni kansuru chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    The present survey is intended to compare and analyze major unified global warming evaluation models available inside and outside the country, and analyze the directionality on supports for the future model developments that will be performed by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. The report describes in Section 1 how the summaries of the global warming evaluation models may be put into order. A unified evaluation model may be positioned basically as a platform to unify the processes of recognizing scientific problems and the processes of determining the policies. Section 2 describes how the summaries of the major global warming evaluation models may be put into order. The models include the followings: DNE21 (Dynamic New Earth 21), GRAPE model, AIM model, MESSAGE (IIASA) model, IMAGE2 (RIVM), and GREEN (Gene Ral Equilibrium Environment)(OECD). Section 3 summarizes the purposes, general situation of development, scope of the objects, and technological features as the features of each model. Section 4 describes the analysis of the actual state of utilizing unified evaluation models for global warming. The results of the analysis were put into order in a map form to make clear the positioning of the major models that have been put into order. (NEDO)

  2. Climate warming and the recent treeline shift in the European alps: the role of geomorphological factors in high-altitude sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, Giovanni; Pelfini, Manuela; di Cella, Umberto Morra; Garavaglia, Valentina

    2011-05-01

    Global warming and the stronger regional temperature trends recently recorded over the European Alps have triggered several biological and physical dynamics in high-altitude environments. We defined the present treeline altitude in three valleys of a region in the western Italian Alps and reconstructed the past treeline position for the last three centuries in a nearly undisturbed site by means of a dendrochronological approach. We found that the treeline altitude in this region is mainly controlled by human impacts and geomorphological factors. The reconstruction of the altitudinal dynamics at the study site reveals that the treeline shifted upwards of 115 m over the period 1901-2000, reaching the altitude of 2505 m in 2000 and 2515 m in 2008. The recent treeline shift and the acceleration of tree colonization rates in the alpine belt can be mainly ascribed to the climatic input. However, we point out the increasing role of geomorphological factors in controlling the future treeline position and colonization patterns in high mountains.

  3. A hierarchical model for ordinal matrix factorization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paquet, Ulrich; Thomson, Blaise; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a hierarchical probabilistic model for ordinal matrix factorization. Unlike previous approaches, we model the ordinal nature of the data and take a principled approach to incorporating priors for the hidden variables. Two algorithms are presented for inference, one based...

  4. Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Wel, Michel; Ozturk, Sait R.; Dijk, Dick van

    The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility surface. Three model types are considered to examine desirable...

  5. Intra-operative tissue oxygen tension is increased by local insufflation of humidified-warm CO2 during open abdominal surgery in a rat model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean K Marshall

    Full Text Available Maintenance of high tissue oxygenation (PtO2 is recommended during surgery because PtO2 is highly predictive of surgical site infection and colonic anastomotic leakage. However, surgical site perfusion is often sub-optimal, creating an obstructive hurdle for traditional, systemically applied therapies to maintain or increase surgical site PtO2. This research tested the hypothesis that insufflation of humidified-warm CO2 into the abdominal cavity would increase sub-peritoneal PtO2 during open abdominal surgery.15 Wistar rats underwent laparotomy under general anesthesia. Three sets of randomized cross-over experiments were conducted in which the abdominal cavity was subjected to alternating exposure to 1 humidified-warm CO2 & ambient air; 2 humidified-warm CO2 & dry-cold CO2; and 3 dry-cold CO2 & ambient air. Sub-peritoneal PtO2 and tissue temperature were measured with a polarographic oxygen probe.Upon insufflation of humidified-warm CO2, PtO2 increased by 29.8 mmHg (SD 13.3; p<0.001, or 96.6% (SD 51.9, and tissue temperature by 3.0°C (SD 1.7 p<0.001, in comparison with exposure to ambient air. Smaller, but significant, increases in PtO2 were seen in experiments 2 and 3. Tissue temperature decreased upon exposure to dry-cold CO2 compared with ambient air (-1.4°C, SD 0.5, p = 0.001.In a rat model, insufflation of humidified-warm CO2 into the abdominal cavity during open abdominal surgery causes an immediate and potentially clinically significant increase in PtO2. The effect is an additive result of the delivery of CO2 and avoidance of evaporative cooling via the delivery of the CO2 gas humidified at body temperature.

  6. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  7. Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2016-11-01

    Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade-1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade-1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model--having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models--we estimate that the warming slowdown (2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively.

  8. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Gary; Fernández Villanueva, Esteban; Rondanelli, Roberto; Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Jens; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Huber, Matthew

    2017-11-01

    Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release

  9. Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Shaffer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean–atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean–atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example

  10. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-03-09

    century or so. However, this conclusion is being challenged by differing interpretations of satellite observations of Total Solar Insolation (TSI). Different satellites give different estimates of TSI during the 1996-7 solar activity minimum. A recent study using the larger TSI satellite interpretation indicates a stronger role for the sun, and until there is agreement on TSI at solar minimum, we caution completely disregarding the sun as a significant factor in recent warming. Computer models continue to improve and, while they still do not do a satisfactory job of predicting regional changes, their simulations of global aspects of climate change and of individual forcings are increasingly reliable. In addition to these four areas, the past five years have seen advances in our understanding of many other aspects of climate change--from albedo changes due to land use to the dynamics of glacier movement. However, these more are of second order importance and will only be treated very briefly. The big news since CFK03 is the first of these, the collapse of the climate critics' last real bastion, namely that satellites and radiosondes show no significant warming in the past quarter century. Figuratively speaking, this was the center pole that held up the critics' entire "tent." Their argument was that, if there had been little warming in the past 25 years or so, then what warming was observed would have been within the range of natural variations with solar forcing as the major player. Further, the models would have been shown to be unreliable since they were predicting warming that was not happening. But now both satellite and in-situ radiosonde observations have been shown to corroborate both the surface observations of warming and the model predictions. Thus, while uncertainties still remain, we are now seeing a coherent picture in which past climate variations, solar and other forcings, model predictions and other indicators such as glacier recession all point to a human

  11. The asset pricing model of musharakah factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Shahril; Omar, Mohd; Lazam, Norazliani Md

    2015-02-01

    The existing three-factor model developed by Fama and French for conventional investment was formulated based on risk-free rates element in which contradict with Shariah principles. We note that the underlying principles that govern Shariah investment were mutual risk and profit sharing between parties, the assurance of fairness for all and that transactions were based on an underlying asset. In addition, the three-factor model did not exclude stock that was not permissible by Shariah such as financial services based on riba (interest), gambling operator, manufacture or sale of non-halal products or related products and other activities deemed non-permissible according to Shariah. Our approach to construct the factor model for Shariah investment was based on the basic tenets of musharakah in tabulating the factors. We start by noting that Islamic stocks with similar characteristics should have similar returns and risks. This similarity between Islamic stocks was defined by the similarity of musharakah attributes such as business, management, profitability and capital. These attributes define factor exposures (or betas) to factors. The main takeaways were that musharakah attributes we chose had explain stock returns well in cross section and were significant in different market environments. The management factor seemed to be responsible for the general dynamics of the explanatory power.

  12. A Warm-Started Homogeneous and Self-Dual Interior-Point Method for Linear Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Skajaa, Anders; Frison, Gianluca

    2013-01-01

    algorithm in MATLAB and its performance is analyzed based on a smart grid power management case study. Closed loop simulations show that 1) our algorithm is significantly faster than state-of-the-art IPMs based on sparse linear algebra routines, and 2) warm-starting reduces the number of iterations...

  13. Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2016-12-19

    We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

  14. Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

  15. Assessment of commercially available energy-efficient room air conditioners including models with low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, N. K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Park, W. Y. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Gerke, B. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2017-08-30

    Improving the energy efficiency of room air conditioners (RACs) while transitioning to low global-warming-potential (GWP) refrigerants will be a critical step toward reducing the energy, peak load, and emissions impacts of RACs while keeping costs low. Previous research quantified the benefits of leapfrogging to high efficiency in tandem with the transition to low-GWP refrigerants for RACs (Shah et al., 2015) and identified opportunities for initial action to coordinate energy efficiency with refrigerant transition in economies constituting about 65% of the global RAC market (Shah et al., 2017). This report describes further research performed to identify the best-performing (i.e., most efficient and low-GWP-refrigerant using) RACs on the market, to support an understanding of the best available technology (BAT). Understanding BAT can help support market-transformation programs for high-efficiency and low-GWP equipment such as minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), labeling, procurement, and incentive programs. We studied RACs available in six economies—China, Europe, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States—that together account for about 70% of global RAC demand, as well as other emerging economies. The following are our key findings: • Highly efficient RACs using low-GWP refrigerants, e.g., HFC-32 (R-32) and HC-290 (R-290), are commercially available today at prices comparable to similar RACs using high-GWP HCFC-22 (R-22) or HFC-410A (R-410A). • High efficiency is typically a feature of high-end products. However, highly efficient, cost-competitive (less than 1,000 or 1,500 U.S. dollars in retail price, depending on size) RACs are available. • Where R-22 is being phased out, high GWP R-410A still dominates RAC sales in most mature markets except Japan, where R-32 dominates. • In all of the economies studied except Japan, only a few models are energy efficient and use low-GWP refrigerants. For example, in Europe, India, and Indonesia

  16. Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes

  17. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  18. A Multinomial Probit Model with Latent Factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piatek, Rémi; Gensowski, Miriam

    2017-01-01

    be meaningfully linked to an economic model. We provide sufficient conditions that make this structure identified and interpretable. For inference, we design a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler based on marginal data augmentation. A simulation exercise shows the good numerical performance of our sampler......We develop a parametrization of the multinomial probit model that yields greater insight into the underlying decision-making process, by decomposing the error terms of the utilities into latent factors and noise. The latent factors are identified without a measurement system, and they can...

  19. Global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahimi, N.; Karbassi, A. R.; Abbaspour, M.

    2002-01-01

    Among the efforts to slow the potential for climate change are measures to reduce emissions of CO 2 from energy use, and promote long-term storage of carbon in forests and soils. Important environmental changes due to climate change and global warming pose potentially significant risks to humans, social systems, and natural world. Many uncertainties remain regarding precise timing,magnitude, and regional patterns of climate change and the extent to which mankind and nature can adapt to any changes. Estimating technical / economical / environmental potentials for reducing CO 2 emission in energy sector and preventing of global warming is one of the main activities, which have been performed for the first time in Iran. By use of 26 factors, model on global warming combat policies in energy sector of Iran in long-medium and short term determine decreasing amount of CO 2 emission. The results and also method of providing this model will be described in this paper

  20. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  1. Warm-Core Intensification of a Hurricane Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports Inside the Eye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Fulton, John; Nolan, David S.

    2001-01-01

    A simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991) using the PSU/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model with a finest mesh spacing of 1.3 km is used to diagnose the heat budget of the hurricane. Heat budget terms, including latent and radiative heating, boundary layer forcing, and advection terms were output directly from the model for a 6-h period with 2-min frequency. Previous studies of warm core formation have emphasized the warming associated with gentle subsidence within the eye. The simulation of Hurricane Bob also identifies subsidence warming as a major factor for eye warming, but also shows a significant contribution from horizontal advective terms. When averaged over the area of the eye, excluding the eyewall (at least in an azimuthal mean sense), subsidence is found to strongly warm the mid-troposphere (2-9 km) while horizontal advection warms the mid to upper troposphere (5-13 km) with about equal magnitude. Partitioning of the horizontal advective terms into azimuthal mean and eddy components shows that the mean radial circulation cannot, as expected, generally contribute to this warming, but that it is produced almost entirely by the horizontal eddy transport of heat into the eye. A further breakdown of the eddy components into azimuthal wave numbers 1, 2, and higher indicates that the warming is dominated by wave number 1 asymmetries, with smaller contributions coming from higher wave numbers. Warming by horizontal eddy transport is consistent with idealized modeling of vortex Rossby waves and work is in progress to identify and clarify the role of vortex Rossby waves in warm-core intensification in both the full-physics model and idealized models.

  2. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina

    2017-07-01

    Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO 2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling

  3. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  4. Matrix factorizations, minimal models and Massey products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, Johanna; Omer, Harun

    2006-01-01

    We present a method to compute the full non-linear deformations of matrix factorizations for ADE minimal models. This method is based on the calculation of higher products in the cohomology, called Massey products. The algorithm yields a polynomial ring whose vanishing relations encode the obstructions of the deformations of the D-branes characterized by these matrix factorizations. This coincides with the critical locus of the effective superpotential which can be computed by integrating these relations. Our results for the effective superpotential are in agreement with those obtained from solving the A-infinity relations. We point out a relation to the superpotentials of Kazama-Suzuki models. We will illustrate our findings by various examples, putting emphasis on the E 6 minimal model

  5. A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2012-04-15

    Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

  6. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  7. Response of precipitation extremes to idealized global warming in an aqua-planet climate model: Towards robust projection across different horizontal resolutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.

    2011-04-15

    Current climate models produce quite heterogeneous projections for the responses of precipitation extremes to future climate change. To help understand the range of projections from multimodel ensembles, a series of idealized 'aquaplanet' Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) runs have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. These runs have been analysed to identify the effects of horizontal resolution on precipitation extreme projections under two simple global warming scenarios. We adopt the aquaplanet framework for our simulations to remove any sensitivity to the spatial resolution of external inputs and to focus on the roles of model physics and dynamics. Results show that a uniform increase of sea surface temperature (SST) and an increase of low-to-high latitude SST gradient both lead to increase of precipitation and precipitation extremes for most latitudes. The perturbed SSTs generally have stronger impacts on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Horizontal model resolution strongly affects the global warming signals in the extreme precipitation in tropical and subtropical regions but not in high latitude regions. This study illustrates that the effects of horizontal resolution have to be taken into account to develop more robust projections of precipitation extremes.

  8. Interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Norman; Palma, Guillermo; Zambrano, David; Avelino, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ m α ρ e β form, where ρ m and ρ e are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w m and w e of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used

  9. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

    2017-04-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine

  10. Early warm-rewarding parenting moderates the genetic contributions to callous-unemotional traits in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Jeffrey; Dionne, Ginette; Viding, Essi; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E; Boivin, Michel

    2018-04-23

    Previous gene-environment interaction studies of CU traits have relied on the candidate gene approach, which does not account for the entire genetic load of complex phenotypes. Moreover, these studies have not examined the role of positive environmental factors such as warm/rewarding parenting. The aim of the present study was to determine whether early warm/rewarding parenting moderates the genetic contributions (i.e., heritability) to callous-unemotional (CU) traits at school age. Data were collected in a population sample of 662 twin pairs (Quebec Newborn Twin Study - QNTS). Mothers reported on their warm/rewarding parenting. Teachers assessed children's CU traits. These reports were subjected to twin modeling. Callous-unemotional traits were highly heritable, with the remaining variance accounted for by nonshared environmental factors. Warm/rewarding parenting significantly moderated the role of genes in CU traits; heritability was lower when children received high warm/rewarding parenting than when they were exposed to low warm/rewarding parenting. High warm/rewarding parenting may partly impede the genetic expression of CU traits. Developmental models of CU traits need to account for such gene-environment processes. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  11. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  12. Study of the strongly ionized medium in active galactic n ('Warm Absorber'): multi-wavelength modelling and plasma diagnostics in the X-ray spectral range

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porquet, Delphine

    1999-01-01

    The so-called 'Warm Absorber' medium is observed in the central region of Active Galactic Nuclei and particularly in Seyfert l galaxies. lt is mainly characterized by O(VII) and O(VIII) absorption edges detected in the soft X-rays. Its study (modelization and observation) is an important key tool to understand Active Galactic Nuclei. The work presented here consists in modelling the Warm Absorber, and in developing X-ray spectroscopy diagnostics to constrain the physical parameters of any hot medium such as the Warm Absorber. The physical parameters of the Warm Absorber (density, temperature, ionization processes..) are difficult to determine only on the basis of present X-ray data. In particular, the value of the density cannot be derived only from the modelling of the resonance lines and of the soft X-ray absorption edges since there are almost insensitive to the density in the range of values expected for the Warm Absorber. lt is why we have developed diagnostic methods based on a multi-wavelength approach. The modelling is made with two complementary computational codes: PEGAS, and IRIS which takes into account the most accurate atomic data. With these two codes, we have modelled several types of plasma ionisation processes (photoionized plasmas and/or collisional). Results for the Warm Absorber were compared to multi-wavelength observations (mainly the optical iron coronal lines [Fe X] 6375 Angstroms, [Fe XI] 7892 Angstroms, and [Fe XIV] 5303 Angstroms). The proposed method has allowed to show that the Warm Absorber could be responsible of the emission of these lines totally or partially. All models of the Warm Absorber producing coronal line equivalent widths larger than observed were ruled out. This strongly constrains the physical parameters of the Warm Absorber, and particularly its density (n H ≥10 10 cm -3 ). The new generation of X-ray satellites (Chandra/AXAF, XMM...) will produce spectra at high spectral resolution and high sensitivity

  13. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  14. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  15. Global Warming: How Much and Why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanouette, William

    1990-01-01

    Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

  16. Temperature adaptation of bacterial communities in experimentally warmed forest soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita D; Bååth, Erland

    2012-10-01

    A detailed understanding of the influence of temperature on soil microbial activity is critical to predict future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and feedbacks to anthropogenic warming. We investigated soils exposed to 3-4 years of continuous 5 °C-warming in a field experiment in a temperate forest. We found that an index for the temperature adaptation of the microbial community, T min for bacterial growth, increased by 0.19 °C per 1 °C rise in temperature, showing a community shift towards one adapted to higher temperature with a higher temperature sensitivity (Q 10(5-15 °C) increased by 0.08 units per 1 °C). Using continuously measured temperature data from the field experiment we modelled in situ bacterial growth. Assuming that warming did not affect resource availability, bacterial growth was modelled to become 60% higher in warmed compared to the control plots, with the effect of temperature adaptation of the community only having a small effect on overall bacterial growth (bacterial growth, most likely due to substrate depletion because of the initially higher growth in warmed plots. When this was factored in, the result was similar rates of modelled in situ bacterial growth in warmed and control plots after 3 years, despite the temperature difference. We conclude that although temperature adaptation for bacterial growth to higher temperatures was detectable, its influence on annual bacterial growth was minor, and overshadowed by the direct temperature effect on growth rates. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Effects of global warming on respiratory diseases

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abe Olugbenga

    and tuberculosis), parasitic lung diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ... Methods: A literature search on global warming and respiratory diseases was carried out through the internet .... (COPD) The main factor to consider here is.

  18. Factors influencing creep model equation selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holdsworth, S.R.; Askins, M.; Baker, A.; Gariboldi, E.; Holmstroem, S.; Klenk, A.; Ringel, M.; Merckling, G.; Sandstrom, R.; Schwienheer, M.; Spigarelli, S.

    2008-01-01

    During the course of the EU-funded Advanced-Creep Thematic Network, ECCC-WG1 reviewed the applicability and effectiveness of a range of model equations to represent the accumulation of creep strain in various engineering alloys. In addition to considering the experience of network members, the ability of several models to describe the deformation characteristics of large single and multi-cast collations of ε(t,T,σ) creep curves have been evaluated in an intensive assessment inter-comparison activity involving three steels, 21/4 CrMo (P22), 9CrMoVNb (Steel-91) and 18Cr13NiMo (Type-316). The choice of the most appropriate creep model equation for a given application depends not only on the high-temperature deformation characteristics of the material under consideration, but also on the characteristics of the dataset, the number of casts for which creep curves are available and on the strain regime for which an analytical representation is required. The paper focuses on the factors which can influence creep model selection and model-fitting approach for multi-source, multi-cast datasets

  19. Projection of actual evapotranspiration using the COSMO-CLM regional climate model under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C in the Tarim River basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Buda; Jian, Dongnan; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Yanjun; Wang, Anqian; Wen, Shanshan; Tao, Hui; Hartmann, Heike

    2017-11-01

    Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is an important component of the water cycle. The goals for limiting global warming to below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and aspiring to 1.5 °C were negotiated in the Paris Agreement in 2015. In this study, outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River basin (TRB) were used to calculate ETa with an advection-aridity model, and changes in ETa under global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C (2020 to 2039) and 2.0 °C (2040 to 2059) were analyzed. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2.0 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average ETa in the TRB is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986-2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in ETa were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual ETa across the TRB considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 4.3 mm less than that for a warming of 2.0 °C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when ETa was 3.4 mm smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual ETa for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2.0 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 8.2 mm and 9.3 mm smaller, respectively. It is suggested that the higher ETa under a warming of 2.0 °C mainly results from an increase in the sunshine duration (net radiation) in the southwestern basin and an increase in precipitation in the northeastern basin. Vapor is removed from the limited surface water supplies by ETa. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the TRB.

  20. Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

    2017-12-01

    Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

  1. Range shifts or extinction? Ancient DNA and distribution modelling reveal past and future responses to climate warming in cold-adapted birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerholm, Vendela K; Sandoval-Castellanos, Edson; Vaniscotte, Amélie; Potapova, Olga R; Tomek, Teresa; Bochenski, Zbigniew M; Shepherd, Paul; Barton, Nick; Van Dyck, Marie-Claire; Miller, Rebecca; Höglund, Jacob; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Dalén, Love; Stewart, John R

    2017-04-01

    Global warming is predicted to cause substantial habitat rearrangements, with the most severe effects expected to occur in high-latitude biomes. However, one major uncertainty is whether species will be able to shift their ranges to keep pace with climate-driven environmental changes. Many recent studies on mammals have shown that past range contractions have been associated with local extinctions rather than survival by habitat tracking. Here, we have used an interdisciplinary approach that combines ancient DNA techniques, coalescent simulations and species distribution modelling, to investigate how two common cold-adapted bird species, willow and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus and Lagopus muta), respond to long-term climate warming. Contrary to previous findings in mammals, we demonstrate a genetic continuity in Europe over the last 20 millennia. Results from back-casted species distribution models suggest that this continuity may have been facilitated by uninterrupted habitat availability and potentially also the greater dispersal ability of birds. However, our predictions show that in the near future, some isolated regions will have little suitable habitat left, implying a future decrease in local populations at a scale unprecedented since the last glacial maximum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; hide

    2016-01-01

    warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

  3. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Hansen

    2016-03-01

    while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1 cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2 slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3 slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4 increasingly powerful storms; and (5 nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

  4. Stationary spiraling eddies in presence of polar amplification of global warming as a governing factor of ecology of Greenland seals White Sea population: results of verification study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melentyev, K.; Chernook, V.; Melentyev, V.

    2003-04-01

    Ice-associated forms of marine mammals are representatives of a high level of fodder chains in the ocean and taxation of population number for different group, as assessment of ecology and animal welfare are the important tasks for marine biology, ecology, fishery and other application uses. Many problems create a global warming and antropogenical impact on marine and coastal ecosystem. In order to investigate ice covered Arctic Ocean and charting the number of seals were performed annual inspections onboard research aircraft PINRO "Arktika". Multi-spectral airborne and satellite observations were fulfilled regularly from Barents and White Sea to the Bering and Okhotsk Sea (1996-2002). A contemporary status of different group of sea mammals was evaluated, where number of adults and pups were checked separately. In situ observations were provided with using helicopter and icebreaker for gathering a water samples and ice cores (with following biochemical and toxicological analysis). A prevailing part of life cycle of Greenland seals (harp seal) is strongly depended from winter hydrology (water masses, stable currents, meandering fronts, stationary eddies) and closely connected with type of ice (pack, fast ice) and other parameters of ice (age, origin, salinity, ice edge.). First-year ice floes which has a specific properties and distinctive features are used by harp seals for pupping, lactation, molting, pairing and resting. Ringed seals, inversely, use for corresponding purposes only fast-ice. Different aspects of ecology, and migration features of harp seals were analyzed in frame of verification study. It was revealed a scale of influence of winter severity and wind regime, but stationary eddies in the White Sea is most effective governing factor (novelty). Following relationship " eddies - ecology of Greenland seal White Sea population " will be discussed: A) regularities of eddies formation and their spatial arrangement, temporal (seasonal and annual

  5. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  6. Structure of Warm Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaberg, S.; Uhrenholt, H.

    2009-01-01

    We study the structure of nuclei in the energy region between the ground state and the neutron separation energy, here called warm nuclei. The onset of chaos in the nucleus as excitation energy is increased is briefly reviewed. Chaos implies fluctuations of energies and wave functions qualitatively the same for all chaotic nuclei. On the other hand, large structure effects are seen, e.g. in the level-density function at same excitation energies. A microscopic model for the level density is reviewed and we discuss effects on structure of the total level-density function, parity enhancement, and the spin distribution function. Comparisons to data are performed at the neutron separation energy for all observed nuclei, and structure of the level-density function for a few measured cases. The role of structure effects in the level-density function for fission dynamics is exemplified.

  7. Determining hydrological changes in a small Arctic treeline basin using cold regions hydrological modelling and a pseudo-global warming approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krogh, S. A.; Pomeroy, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are producing higher rainfall ratios, shorter snow-covered periods, permafrost thaw, more shrub coverage, more northerly treelines and greater interaction between groundwater and surface flow in Arctic basins. How these changes will impact the hydrology of the Arctic treeline environment represents a great challenge. To diagnose the future hydrology along the current Arctic treeline, a physically based cold regions model was used to simulate the hydrology of a small basin near Inuvik, Northwest Territories, Canada. The hydrological model includes hydrological processes such as snow redistribution and sublimation by wind, canopy interception of snow/rain and sublimation/evaporation, snowmelt energy balance, active layer freeze/thaw, infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, horizontal flow through organic terrain and snowpack, subsurface flow and streamflow routing. The model was driven with weather simulated by a high-resolution (4 km) numerical weather prediction model under two scenarios: (1) control run, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions (2001-2013) and (2) future, using a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach based on the RCP8.5 projections perturbing the control run. Transient changes in vegetation based on recent observations and ecological expectations were then used to re-parameterise the model. Historical hydrological simulations were validated against daily streamflow, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness records, showing the model's suitability in this environment. Strong annual warming ( 6 °C) and more precipitation ( 20%) were simulated by the PGW scenario, with winter precipitation and fall temperature showing the largest seasonal increase. The joint impact of climate and transient vegetation changes on snow accumulation and redistribution, evapotranspiration, active layer development, runoff generation and hydrograph characteristics are analyzed and discussed.

  8. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Wehner

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  9. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-02-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  10. The Basketball warms-ups - theoretical assumptions and practical solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Łubiński

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Many authors emphasize the importance of warm-up. Warm-up in team games aims at enhancing the body adaptation to the physical activity and to activate physiological functions from the rest state to the active state. Warm-up brings many different benefits, for example: physiological, psychological, and preventive, regardless of the classification of the above. From a psychological standpoint, the warm-up is performed to create the body "alertness", activity and readiness, and a willingness to act effectively. It was found that the players who perform the correct warm-up are better mentally prepared than those who do not perform it. After a well performed warm-up, the athlete is self-confident and has a positive attitude to the match. It is believed that the warm-up can also be the way to relieve tension and anxiety and to increase concentration and motivation before the match. Warm-up also improves the emotional states and reduces fear of failure. It has been verified that the warm-up, performed under appropriate conditions, improves focus, visual perception, action accuracy, self-confidence, speed and responsiveness, speed of processing and decision making. From the physiological point of view, the warm-up is an activity that adapts the basketball player’s body to an effort. It is an important factor that affects the effect of participation in the competition. Data from the literature suggest that the warm-up individualization is necessary in terms of duration and intensity. There are two types of warm-ups: passive and active. Passive warm-up is the one that is performed by using hot showers, baths, saunas, and steam baths or by using energetics massage. Active warm-up requires a lot of commitment and determination from the athlete during exercises that prepare the body and muscles for an effort. The training measures used during this part of warm-up are the general exercises that improve strength, stretch, coordination

  11. Modelling human factor with Petri nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedreaga, Luminita; Constantinescu, Cristina; Guzun, Basarab

    2007-01-01

    The human contribution to risk and safety of nuclear power plant operation can be best understood, assessed and quantified using tools to evaluate human reliability. Human reliability analysis becomes an important part of every probabilistic safety assessment and it is used to demonstrate that nuclear power plants designed with different safety levels are prepared to cope with severe accidents. Human reliability analysis in context of probabilistic safety assessment consists in: identifying human-system interactions important to safety; quantifying probabilities appropriate with these interactions. Nowadays, the complex system functions can be modelled using special techniques centred either on states space adequate to system or on events appropriate to the system. Knowing that complex system model consists in evaluating the likelihood of success, in other words, in evaluating the possible value for that system being in some state, the inductive methods which are based on the system states can be applied also for human reliability modelling. Thus, switching to the system states taking into account the human interactions, the underlying basis of the Petri nets can be successfully applied and the likelihoods appropriate to these states can also derived. The paper presents the manner to assess the human reliability quantification using Petri nets approach. The example processed in the paper is from human reliability documentation without a detailed human factor analysis (qualitative). The obtained results by these two kinds of methods are in good agreement. (authors)

  12. Effect of process water chemistry and particulate mineralogy on model oilsands separation using a warm slurry extraction process simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Wik; B.D. Sparks; S. Ng; Y. Tu; Z. Li; K.H. Chung; L.S. Kotlyar [Syncrude Canada Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Edmonton Research Center

    2008-06-15

    Variability in ore composition and process parameters is known to affect bitumen recovery from natural oilsands. In this work, we extend our earlier investigations with model oilsands systems (MOS) to determine the effects of calcium, magnesium and bicarbonate ion concentrations in the process water and their interactions with 'active' solids such as: kaolinite, montmorillonite and ultra-fine silica. Our results demonstrate that solids mineralogy and decreasing particle size produce negative outcomes on bitumen recovery related to concomitant effects on bitumen droplet size during flotation. In some cases, certain process water chemistries were found to restore recovery, but clay concentration was the key factor. Naturally acidic oilsands are known to give poor bitumen recoveries. An MOS prepared with connate water at pH 2 responded in the same way. Comparison with a typical oilsands showed no significant differences in middlings pH and the large, negative effect on bitumen recovery was not reversed by higher caustic loading during separation. This result may be caused by irreversible co-flocculation of bitumen and mineral particles during preparation of the MOS and may reflect similar behavior in comparable natural samples. 29 refs., 20 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Warm Mix Asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-17

    State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

  14. Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

    2014-05-15

    This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Frieler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1 separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations; (2 quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0 with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3 assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016 and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across

  16. Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Astudillo, Miguel F.; Vaillancourt, Kathleen; Pineau, Pierre-Olivier; Amor, Ben

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •An energy system model of Quebec is combined with building simulation software. •Greenhouse gas emission reductions efforts increase annual electricity peak demand. •Alternative heating tech. And building envelopes can effectively reduce peak demand. •Denser urban developments massively reduced costs of global warming mitigation. •CO 2 emissions from hydropower reservoirs are relevant in global warming mitigation. -- Abstract: The transition to low carbon societies may increase peak electricity demand, which can be costly to supply with renewable energy, whose availability is uncertain. Buildings are often the main cause of peak demand, and they are believed to hold a large unrealised energy-efficiency potential. If realised, this potential could considerably mitigate the transition costs to low carbon societies, reducing average and peak electricity demands. We explore this potential in several cost-optimal global warming (GW) mitigation scenarios using a multi-sector TIMES energy system model of the province of Quebec for the period 2011–2050. Heating and conservation measures in the residential sector are modelled using building simulations and parameters’ values from the literature. The intra-annual availability of renewable energy and electricity imports is derived from time-series analysis. Additionally, the influence of key parameters such as the projections of primary energy demand and emissions from reservoir impoundment is evaluated. Finally, we discuss some of the barriers that could hamper the energy transition and how they can be overcome. Results indicate that peak demand would rise by 30% due to GW mitigation efforts, but it can be effectively reduced by interventions in the residential sector. Heat pumps are the most cost effective heating technology, despite their lower efficiencies in cold climates. Better-insulated building envelopes have an important role in new houses, reducing by 14% the GW mitigation costs and

  17. Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

    2017-11-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global

  18. Human factors engineering program review model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-07-01

    The staff of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is performing nuclear power plant design certification reviews based on a design process plan that describes the human factors engineering (HFE) program elements that are necessary and sufficient to develop an acceptable detailed design specification and an acceptable implemented design. There are two principal reasons for this approach. First, the initial design certification applications submitted for staff review did not include detailed design information. Second, since human performance literature and industry experiences have shown that many significant human factors issues arise early in the design process, review of the design process activities and results is important to the evaluation of an overall design. However, current regulations and guidance documents do not address the criteria for design process review. Therefore, the HFE Program Review Model (HFE PRM) was developed as a basis for performing design certification reviews that include design process evaluations as well as review of the final design. A central tenet of the HFE PRM is that the HFE aspects of the plant should be developed, designed, and evaluated on the basis of a structured top-down system analysis using accepted HFE principles. The HFE PRM consists of ten component elements. Each element in divided into four sections: Background, Objective, Applicant Submittals, and Review Criteria. This report describes the development of the HFE PRM and gives a detailed description of each HFE review element

  19. A model study of warming-induced phosphorus-oxygen feedbacks in open-ocean oxygen minimum zones on millennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemeyer, Daniela; Kemena, Tronje P.; Meissner, Katrin J.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-05-01

    Observations indicate an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) over the past 50 years, likely related to ongoing deoxygenation caused by reduced oxygen solubility, changes in stratification and circulation, and a potential acceleration of organic matter turnover in a warming climate. The overall area of ocean sediments that are in direct contact with low-oxygen bottom waters also increases with expanding OMZs. This leads to a release of phosphorus from ocean sediments. If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, higher temperatures will cause enhanced weathering on land, which, in turn, will increase the phosphorus and alkalinity fluxes into the ocean and therefore raise the ocean's phosphorus inventory even further. A higher availability of phosphorus enhances biological production, remineralisation and oxygen consumption, and might therefore lead to further expansions of OMZs, representing a positive feedback. A negative feedback arises from the enhanced productivity-induced drawdown of carbon and also increased uptake of CO2 due to weathering-induced alkalinity input. This feedback leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 and weathering rates. Here, we quantify these two competing feedbacks on millennial timescales for a high CO2 emission scenario. Using the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity, our model results suggest that the positive benthic phosphorus release feedback has only a minor impact on the size of OMZs in the next 1000 years. The increase in the marine phosphorus inventory under assumed business-as-usual global warming conditions originates, on millennial timescales, almost exclusively (> 80 %) from the input via terrestrial weathering and causes a 4- to 5-fold expansion of the suboxic water volume in the model.

  20. A model study of warming-induced phosphorus–oxygen feedbacks in open-ocean oxygen minimum zones on millennial timescales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Niemeyer

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Observations indicate an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs over the past 50 years, likely related to ongoing deoxygenation caused by reduced oxygen solubility, changes in stratification and circulation, and a potential acceleration of organic matter turnover in a warming climate. The overall area of ocean sediments that are in direct contact with low-oxygen bottom waters also increases with expanding OMZs. This leads to a release of phosphorus from ocean sediments. If anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, higher temperatures will cause enhanced weathering on land, which, in turn, will increase the phosphorus and alkalinity fluxes into the ocean and therefore raise the ocean's phosphorus inventory even further. A higher availability of phosphorus enhances biological production, remineralisation and oxygen consumption, and might therefore lead to further expansions of OMZs, representing a positive feedback. A negative feedback arises from the enhanced productivity-induced drawdown of carbon and also increased uptake of CO2 due to weathering-induced alkalinity input. This feedback leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 and weathering rates. Here, we quantify these two competing feedbacks on millennial timescales for a high CO2 emission scenario. Using the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity, our model results suggest that the positive benthic phosphorus release feedback has only a minor impact on the size of OMZs in the next 1000 years. The increase in the marine phosphorus inventory under assumed business-as-usual global warming conditions originates, on millennial timescales, almost exclusively (> 80 % from the input via terrestrial weathering and causes a 4- to 5-fold expansion of the suboxic water volume in the model.

  1. Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiangyin; Yang, Wanqin; Qi, Zemin; Liao, Shu; Xu, Zhenfeng; Tan, Bo; Wang, Bin; Wu, Qinggui; Fu, Changkun; You, Chengming; Wu, Fuzhong

    2017-08-01

    Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (-22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (-18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes-climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single-factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  3. Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnstone, Jill F; Henkelman, Jonathan; Allen, Kirsten; Helgason, Warren; Bedard-Haughn, Angela

    2013-01-01

    Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

  4. Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill F Johnstone

    Full Text Available Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2 plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

  5. Responses to a warming world: Integrating life history, immune investment, and pathogen resistance in a model insect species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laughton, Alice M; O'Connor, Cian O; Knell, Robert J

    2017-11-01

    , biologically relevant changes to environmental temperature. In light of global warming, understanding these complex interactions is vital for predicting the potential impact of insect disease vectors and crop pests on public health and food security.

  6. Implementation of a micro-physical scheme for warm clouds in the meteorological model 'MERCURE': Application to cooling tower plumes and to orographic precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouzereau, Emmanuel

    2004-01-01

    A two-moment semi-spectral warm micro-physical scheme has been implemented inside the meteorological model 'MERCURE'. A new formulation of the buoyancy flux () is proposed, which is coherent with the corrigendum of Mellor (1977) but differs from Bougeault (1981). The non-precipitating cloud microphysics is validated by comparing the numerical simulations of fifteen cases of cooling tower plumes with data from a measurement campaign in Bugey in 1980. Satisfactory results are obtained on the plumes shape, on the temperature and vertical velocity fields and on the droplets spectrums, although the liquid water contents tend to be overestimated. The precipitating cloud microphysics is tested by reproducing the academical cases of orographic precipitation of Chaumerliac et al. (1987) and Richard and Chaumerliac (1989). The simulations allow a check of the action of different micro-physical terms. (author) [fr

  7. Average-atom model for two-temperature states and ionic transport properties of aluminum in the warm dense matter regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yong; Fu, Yongsheng; Bredow, Richard; Kang, Dongdong; Redmer, Ronald; Yuan, Jianmin

    2017-03-01

    The average-atom model combined with the hyper-netted chain approximation is an efficient tool for electronic and ionic structure calculations for warm dense matter. Here we generalize this method in order to describe non-equilibrium states with different electron and ion temperature as produced in laser-matter interactions on ultra-short time scales. In particular, the electron-ion and ion-ion correlation effects are considered when calculating the electron structure. We derive an effective ion-ion pair-potential using the electron densities in the framework of temperature-depended density functional theory. Using this ion-ion potential we perform molecular dynamics simulations in order to determine the ionic transport properties such as the ionic diffusion coefficient and the shear viscosity through the ionic velocity autocorrelation functions.

  8. Data-model synthesis of grassland carbon metabolism. Quantifying direct, indirect & interactive effects of warming & elevated CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pendall, Elise [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Ogle, Kiona [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States); Parton, William [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2016-02-29

    This research project improved understanding of how climate change (elevated atmospheric CO2, warming and altered precipitation) can affect grassland ecosystem productivity and nutrient availability. Our advanced experimental and modeling methods allowed us to test 21 specific hypotheses. We found that ecosystem changes over years of exposure to climate change can shift the plant communities and potentially make them more resilient to future climate changes. These changes in plant communities may be related to increased growth of belowground roots and enhanced nutrient uptake by some species. We also found that climate change can increase the spread of invasive and noxious weeds. These findings are important for land managers to make adaptive planning decisions for domestic livestock production in response to climate variability in semi-arid grasslands.

  9. Model of separated form factors for unilamellar vesicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, M.A.; Aksenov, V.L.; Lesieur, P.; Lombardo, D.; Kiselev, A.M.

    2001-01-01

    A new model of separated form factors is proposed for the evaluation of small-angle neutron scattering curves from large unilamellar vesicles. The validity of the model was checked via comparison with the model of a hollow sphere. The model of separated form factors and the hollow sphere model give a reasonable agreement in the evaluation of vesicle parameters

  10. Global Warming and Financial Umbrellas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dosi, C.; Moretto, M.

    2001-10-01

    A new instrument for hedging weather risks has made its appearance in the financial arena. Trade in 'weather derivatives' has taken off in the US, and interest is growing elsewhere. Whilst such contracts may be simply interpreted as a new tool for solving a historical problem, the question addressed in this paper is if, besides other factors, the appearance of weather derivatives is somehow related to anthropogenic climate change. Our tentative answer is positive. Since 'global warming' does not simply mean an increase in averaged temperatures, but increased climate variability, and increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, derivative contracts may potentially become a useful tool for hedging some weather risks, insofar as they may provide coverage at a lower cost than standard insurance schemes. Keywords: Global warming, climate variability, insurance coverage, weather derivatives

  11. Model of a ternary complex between activated factor VII, tissue factor and factor IX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shu-wen W; Pellequer, Jean-Luc; Schved, Jean-François; Giansily-Blaizot, Muriel

    2002-07-01

    Upon binding to tissue factor, FVIIa triggers coagulation by activating vitamin K-dependent zymogens, factor IX (FIX) and factor X (FX). To understand recognition mechanisms in the initiation step of the coagulation cascade, we present a three-dimensional model of the ternary complex between FVIIa:TF:FIX. This model was built using a full-space search algorithm in combination with computational graphics. With the known crystallographic complex FVIIa:TF kept fixed, the FIX docking was performed first with FIX Gla-EGF1 domains, followed by the FIX protease/EGF2 domains. Because the FIXa crystal structure lacks electron density for the Gla domain, we constructed a chimeric FIX molecule that contains the Gla-EGF1 domains of FVIIa and the EGF2-protease domains of FIXa. The FVIIa:TF:FIX complex has been extensively challenged against experimental data including site-directed mutagenesis, inhibitory peptide data, haemophilia B database mutations, inhibitor antibodies and a novel exosite binding inhibitor peptide. This FVIIa:TF:FIX complex provides a powerful tool to study the regulation of FVIIa production and presents new avenues for developing therapeutic inhibitory compounds of FVIIa:TF:substrate complex.

  12. Reformulation of Crop and Management Factor in ANSWERS Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yayat Hidayat

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Crop and management factor value is significantly corelated with outputs of ANSWERS model especially on soil erosion. Using daily crop and management factors (daily C factors, the ANSWERS model performs well in predicting soil erosion which is showed by determination coeffient (R2 = 0.89, model efficiency (0.86, and average of percentage model deviations (24.1%. Whereas using USLE C factor (2 cropping systems, predicted is much higher than measured soil erosion (over estimate. Output of the model is not statisfy; it is represented by model coefficient (0.40 and average of percentage model deviations (63.6%.

  13. Models of Plankton Community Changes during a Warm Water Anomaly in Arctic Waters Show Altered Trophic Pathways with Minimal Changes in Carbon Export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Vernet

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Carbon flow through pelagic food webs is an expression of the composition, biomass and activity of phytoplankton as primary producers. In the near future, severe environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean are expected to lead to modifications of phytoplankton communities. Here, we used a combination of linear inverse modeling and ecological network analysis to study changes in food webs before, during, and after an anomalous warm water event in the eastern Fram Strait of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC that resulted in a shift from diatoms to flagellates during the summer (June–July. The model predicts substantial differences in the pathways of carbon flow in diatom- vs. Phaeocystis/nanoflagellate-dominated phytoplankton communities, but relatively small differences in carbon export. The model suggests a change in the zooplankton community and activity through increasing microzooplankton abundance and the switching of meso- and macrozooplankton feeding from strict herbivory to omnivory, detritivory and coprophagy. When small cells and flagellates dominated, the phytoplankton carbon pathway through the food web was longer and the microbial loop more active. Furthermore, one step was added in the flow from phytoplankton to mesozooplankton, and phytoplankton carbon to higher trophic levels is available via detritus or microzooplankton. Model results highlight how specific changes in phytoplankton community composition, as expected in a climate change scenario, do not necessarily lead to a reduction in carbon export.

  14. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  15. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  16. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  17. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  18. Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James E

    1999-01-01

    The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

  19. The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  20. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  1. Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, Katherine M.; Curtis, Caroline; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Poulter, Benjamin; Adler, Peter B.

    2018-01-01

    A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

  2. Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

    2015-01-01

    Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

  3. PENGUJIAN FAMA-FRENCH THREE-FACTOR MODEL DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damar Hardianto

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examined the Fama-French three factor model of stock returnsfor Indonesia over the period 2000-2004. We found evidence for pervasive market, size, andbook-to-market factors in Indonesian stock returns. We found that cross-sectional mean returnswere explained by exposures to these three factors, and not by the market factor alone. Theempirical results were reasonably consistent with the Fama-French three factor model.

  4. Flooding Model as the Analysis of the Sea Level Increase as a Result of Global Warming in Coastal Area in Lampung

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Kurniawan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The melting of ice layers, as a direct impact on global warming, is indicated from a lesser thickness of ice layers is specifically causing an increase on the sea level. Lampung, as a province that has an ecosistem of regional coast, can be estimated to submerge. Flood modelling can be done to know the estimated flood range. The model of the flooded region is taken from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM data, which is nomalized to get the visualisation of Digital Elevation Model (DEM. The purpose of this research is to know the estimated region of provincial coast of Lampung that is going to be flooded because of the raising of sea surface. This research uses flood inundation technique that uses one of the GIS mapping software. The result can be used as consideration to achieve policy in the building of regional coast. The regions that are flooded based on the scenario of the raising of two and three meter surface sea level are East Lampung Regency, West Lampung Regency, South Lampung Regency, Tanggamus Regency, Pesawaran Regency, and Bandar Lampung.

  5. Self-interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannestad, Steen; Scherrer, Robert J.

    2000-01-01

    It has been shown by many independent studies that the cold dark matter scenario produces singular galactic dark halos, in strong contrast with observations. Possible remedies are that either the dark matter is warm so that it has significant thermal motion or that the dark matter has strong self-interactions. We combine these ideas to calculate the linear mass power spectrum and the spectrum of cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations for self-interacting warm dark matter. Our results indicate that such models have more power on small scales than is the case for the standard warm dark matter model, with a CMB fluctuation spectrum which is nearly indistinguishable from standard cold dark matter. This enhanced small-scale power may provide better agreement with the observations than does standard warm dark matter. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

  6. Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ricke, Katharine L; Caldeira, Ken

    2014-01-01

    It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO 2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO 2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations. (letter)

  7. Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

    2014-12-01

    It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6-30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.

  8. Movement of global warming issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Taishi

    2015-01-01

    This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

  9. A mechanistic ecohydrological model to investigate complex interactions in cold and warm water-controlled environments. 2. Spatiotemporal analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Fatichi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available An ecohydrological model Tethys-Chloris (T&C described in the companion paper is applied to two semiarid systems characterized by different climate and vegetation cover conditions. The Lucky Hills watershed in Arizona represents a typical small, ``unit-source'' catchment of a desert shrub system of the U.S. southwest. Two nested basins of the Reynolds Creek Experimental watershed (Idaho, U.S.A., the Reynolds Creek Mountain East and Tollgate catchments, are representative of a semiarid cold climate with seasonal snow cover. Both exhibit a highly non-uniform vegetation cover. A range of ecohydrological metrics of the long-term model performance is presented to highlight the model capabilities in reproducing hydrological and vegetation dynamics both at the plot and the watershed scales. A diverse set of observations is used to confirm the simulated dynamics. Highly satisfactory results are obtained without significant (or any calibration efforts despite the large phase-space dimensionality of the model, the uncertainty of imposed boundary conditions, and limited data availability. It is argued that a significant investment into the model design based on the description of physical, biophysical, and ecological processes leads to such a consistent simulation skill. The simulated patterns mimic the outcome of hydrological and vegetation dynamics with high realism, as confirmed from spatially distributed remote sensing data. Further community efforts are warranted to address the issue of thorough quantitative assessment. The current lack of appropriate data hampers the development and testing of process-based ecohydrological models. It is further argued that the mechanistic nature of the T&C model can be valuable for designing virtual experiments and developing questions of scientific inquiry at a range of spatiotemporal scales.

  10. Tachyon warm-intermediate inflation in the light of Planck data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamali, Vahid; Mehrabi, Ahmad [Bu-Ali Sina University, Department of Physics, Hamedan (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Basilakos, Spyros [Academy of Athens, Research Center for Astronomy and Applied Mathematics, Athens (Greece)

    2016-10-15

    We study the main properties of the warm tachyon inflation model in the framework of the RSII braneworld based on Barrow's solution for the scale factor of the universe. Within this framework we calculate analytically the basic slow-roll parameters for different versions of warm inflation. We test the performance of this inflationary scenario against the latest observational data and we verify that the predicted spectral index and the tensor-to-scalar fluctuation ratio are in excellent agreement with those of Planck 2015. Finally, we find that the current predictions are consistent with those of viable inflationary models. (orig.)

  11. A Comparison of the Diel Cycle of Modeled and Measured Latent Heat Flux During the Warm Season in a Colorado Subalpine Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Sean P.; Swenson, Sean C.; Wieder, William R.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.

    2018-03-01

    Precipitation changes the physiological characteristics of an ecosystem. Because land-surface models are often used to project changes in the hydrological cycle, modeling the effect of precipitation on the latent heat flux λE is an important aspect of land-surface models. Here we contrast conditionally sampled diel composites of the eddy-covariance fluxes from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux tower with the Community Land Model (CLM, version 4.5). With respect to measured λE during the warm season: for the day following above-average precipitation, λE was enhanced at midday by ≈40 W m-2 (relative to dry conditions), and nocturnal λE increased from ≈10 W m-2 in dry conditions to over 20 W m-2 in wet conditions. With default settings, CLM4.5 did not successfully model these changes. By increasing the amount of time that rainwater was retained by the canopy/needles, CLM was able to match the observed midday increase in λE on a dry day following a wet day. Stable nighttime conditions were problematic for CLM4.5. Nocturnal CLM λE had only a small (≈3 W m-2) increase during wet conditions, CLM nocturnal friction velocity u∗ was smaller than observed u∗, and CLM canopy air temperature was 2°C less than those measured at the site. Using observed u∗ as input to CLM increased λE; however, this caused CLM λE to be increased during both wet and dry periods. We suggest that sloped topography and the ever-present drainage flow enhanced nocturnal u∗ and λE. Such phenomena would not be properly captured by topographically blind land-surface models, such as CLM.

  12. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Shunsuke

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

  13. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  14. Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  15. Impact of GHG warming on the mean and extreme loading of particulate matter pollution in a chemistry-climate model ensemble simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y.; Lamarque, J. F.; Wu, X.

    2017-12-01

    Particulate matter with the diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) poses health threats to human populations. Regardless of efforts to regulate the pollution sources, it is unclear how climate change caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) would affect PM2.5 levels. Using century-long ensemble simulations with Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1), we show that, if the anthropogenic emissions would remain at the level in the year 2005, the global surface concentration and atmospheric column burden of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon would still increase by 5-10% at the end of 21st century (2090-2100) due to global warming alone. The decrease in the wet removal flux of PM2.5, despite an increase in global precipitation, is the primary cause for the increase in the PM2.5 column burden. Regionally over North America and East Asia, a shift of future precipitation toward more frequent heavy events contributes to weakened wet removal fluxes. Based on the daily model output, the frequency and intensity of extreme pollution events are also studied. We found that both stagnation frequency and rainfall changes serve to worsen extreme pollution in the future.

  16. Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calaveri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Wood, Tana E.

    2015-01-01

    Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most

  17. Acclimation of methane production weakens ecosystem response to climate warming in a northern peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    MA, S.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Luo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Warming-induced increases in greenhouse gases from terrestrial ecosystems represent a positive feedback to twenty-first-century climate warming, but the magnitude of this stimulatory effect remains uncertain. Acclimation of soil respiration and photosynthesis have been found to slow down the feedback due to the substrate limitation and thermal adaptation. However, acclimation of ecosystem methane emission to climate warming has not been well illustrated, despite that methane is directly responsible for approximately 20% of global warming since pre-industrial time. In this study, we used the data-model fusion approach to explore the potential acclimation of methane emission to climate warming. We assimilated CH4 static chamber flux data at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) experimental site into the ecosystem model, TECO_SPRUCE. The SPRUCE project has been conducted to study the responses of northern peatland to climate warming (+0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, +9 °C) and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (+0 and +500 ppm). The warming treatments were initiated from June 2014. We estimated parameter values using environmental and flux data in those five warming treatment levels from 2014 to 2016 for the acclimation study. The key parameters that were estimated for methane emissions are the potential ratio of CO2 converted to CH4 (r_me), Q10 for CH4 production (Q10_pro), maximum oxidation rate (Omax) and the factor of transport ability at plant community level (Tveg). Among them, r_me and Q10_pro were well constrained in each treatment plot. Q10 decreased from 3.33 (control) to 1.22 (+9˚C treatment) and r_me decreased from 0.675 (control) to 0.505 (+9˚C treatment). The acclimation will dampen the warming effect on methane production and emission. Current ecosystem models assumed constant Q10 for CH4 production and CH4/CO2 conversion ratio in the future warmed climate. The assumption is likely to overestimate the methane

  18. Nitrous oxide and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, C.

    1994-01-01

    The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

  19. A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Rosenskjold, Carsten Paysen T.

    The prototypical Lee-Carter mortality model is characterized by a single common time factor that loads differently across age groups. In this paper we propose a factor model for the term structure of mortality where multiple factors are designed to influence the age groups differently via...... on the loading functions, the factors are not designed to be orthogonal but can be dependent and can possibly cointegrate when the factors have unit roots. We suggest two estimation procedures similar to the estimation of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel term structure model. First, a two-step nonlinear least squares...... procedure based on cross-section regressions together with a separate model to estimate the dynamics of the factors. Second, we suggest a fully specified model estimated by maximum likelihood via the Kalman filter recursions after the model is put on state space form. We demonstrate the methodology for US...

  20. Signature of protein adaptation to warm deep sea environments: the case of Initiation Factor 6 studied by molecular simulation and neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calligari, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    The protein Initiation Factor 6 (IF6) takes part in the protein synthesis regulation of several organisms. It was also found in archeaebacteria such as Methanococcus jannaschii which lives in deep-seas near hydrothermal vents where temperature reaches 80 C and pressure is between 250 bar and 500 bar. The aim of this work was to study for the first time dynamical and structural properties of IF6 produced by M. jannaschii and comparing them with those of the IF6 homologue present in Saccharomyces cerevisiae which lives at 'normal' environmental conditions (27 C and 1 bar). Molecular simulation gave here new insights into the adaptation of these two proteins to their respective physiological conditions and showed that the latter induced similar dynamical and structural properties: in their respective 'natural' conditions, IF6s show very similar structural fluctuations and the characteristic relaxation times which define their dynamical properties shows similar changes when comparing unfavorable conditions to physiological ones. The creation of these corresponding states between the two homologues has been interpreted by the fractional Brownian dynamics model and by a novel method for the characterization of protein secondary structures. The latter is presented here in detail together with some examples of other applications. Experimental data obtained from quasi-elastic neutron scattering seemed to support the results obtained by molecular simulations. (author) [fr

  1. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  2. Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B; Fischer, Erich M; Knutti, Reto

    2017-05-03

    Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the 'global warming hiatus', caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of 'hiatus' and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.

  3. Cloud Computing Adoption Business Model Factors: Does Enterprise Size Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Bogataj Habjan, Kristina; Pucihar, Andreja

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the results of research investigating the impact of business model factors on cloud computing adoption. The introduced research model consists of 40 cloud computing business model factors, grouped into eight factor groups. Their impact and importance for cloud computing adoption were investigated among enterpirses in Slovenia. Furthermore, differences in opinion according to enterprise size were investigated. Research results show no statistically significant impacts of in...

  4. Changes in Extreme Maximum Temperature Events and Population Exposure in China under Global Warming Scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0°C: Analysis Using the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Mingjin; Li, Xiucang; Sun, Hemin; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun

    2018-02-01

    We used daily maximum temperature data (1986-2100) from the COSMO-CLM (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode) regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events (EMTEs) with the intensity-area-duration method. Between 1986 and 2005 (reference period), the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330-1680 times yr-1, 31.4-33.3°C, and 1.76-3.88 million km2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5-392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986-2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13-6.84, 0.32-1.50, and 15.98%-30.68%, respectively, under 1.5°C warming; under 2.0°C warming, the increases are 1.73-12.48, 0.64-2.76, and 31.96%-50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5°C warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0°C warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0°C warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%-39.2% and 26.6%-48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0°C warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0°C will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5°C.

  5. Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

    2013-09-01

    One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model-downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961-1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051-2080), a poleward advance of the forest-tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH4, may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux.

  6. Assessment of slip factor models at off-design condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Sung Ho; Baek, Je Hyun

    2000-01-01

    Slip factor is defined as an empirical factor being multiplied to theoretical energy transfer for the estimation of real work input of a centrifugal compressor. Researchers have tried to develop a simple empirical model, for a century, to predict a slip factor. However most these models were developed on the condition of design point assuming inviscid flow. So these models often fail to predict a correct slip factor at off-design condition. In this study, we summarized various slip factor models and compared these models with experimental and numerical data at off-design condition. As a result of this study, Wiesner's and Paeng and Chung's models are applicable for radial impeller, but all the models are not suitable for backswept impeller. Finally, the essential avenues for future study is discussed

  7. Sustainable production of cultivations, using biological and conservationists techniques; an applicable model to the Colombian warm tropic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castro F, Hugo E

    1995-01-01

    The hot Colombian tropics represent nearly 82% of the national territory. The intensive and wrongly use of the soil has been subjected for years in agricultural areas of the inter-Andean valleys, Caribbean region, the eastern plains and others sectors of the commercial agriculture in the hot climate it is promoting a progressive physical, chemical and biological degradation of the soil. The physical losses of soil and organic matter due to erosion, excessive mechanization, flooding rice as single crop, burning of crop residues, unsuitable systems of irrigation and drainage, alkalinization an compaction in cropping areas, and the problems with more incidence in the deployment of land productivity in the areas. The methods to overcome these limitations agree with the application of modem and sustainable technologies focusing production systems. The management of production systems, selecting tillage systems according to the physical development of the soil, planting species in continuous rotation cycles, planting and incorporation of green manure, between two agricultural semesters, the appropriate management of water in non-irrigated crops an modem irrigation and the utilization of crop residues, to return to the soil, part of the nutrients extracted constitute some of the factors management dependent that could affect favorably the land productivity, for the benefit of future generations. Based on these concepts, it is presented in this article some of the experimental results obtained by national of Agriculture Colombian Institute (ICA) in the Regional Soil Program Center of Agricultural Research (Nataima), located in El Espinal, Tolima State, Colombia

  8. X-ray Thomson scattering in warm dense matter at low frequencies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murillo, Michael S.

    2010-01-01

    The low-frequency portion of the x-ray Thomson scattering spectrum is determined by electrons that follow the slow ion motion. This ion motion is characterized by the ion-ion dynamic structure factor, which contains a wealth of information about the ions, including structure and collective modes. The frequency-integrated (diffraction) contribution is considered first. An effective dressed-particle description of warm dense matter is derived from the quantum Ornstein-Zernike equations, and this is used to identify a Yukawa model for warm dense matter. The efficacy of this approach is validated by comparing a predicted structure with data from the extreme case of a liquid metal; good agreement is found. A Thomas-Fermi model is then introduced to allow the separation of bound and free states at finite temperatures, and issues with the definition of the ionization state in warm dense matter are discussed. For applications, analytic structure factors are given on either side of the Kirkwood line. Finally, several models are constructed for describing the slow dynamics of warm dense matter. Two classes of models are introduced that both satisfy the basic sum rules. One class of models is the 'plasmon-pole'-like class, which yields the dispersion of ion-acoustic waves. Damping is then included via generalized hydrodynamics models that incorporate viscous contributions.

  9. Modelling of Supercapacitors: Factors Influencing Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kroupa, M; Offer, GJ; Kosek, J

    2016-01-01

    The utilizable capacitance of Electrochemical Double Layer Capacitors (EDLCs) is a function of the frequency at which they are operated and this is strongly dependent on the construction and physical parameters of the device. We simulate the dynamic behavior of an EDLC using a spatially resolved model based on the porous electrode theory. The model of Verbrugge and Liu (J. Electrochem. Soc. 152, D79 (2005)) was extended with a dimension describing the transport into the carbon particle pores....

  10. Tundra shrubification and tree-line advance amplify arctic climate warming: results from an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wenxin; Miller, Paul A; Smith, Benjamin; Wania, Rita; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf

    2013-01-01

    One major challenge to the improvement of regional climate scenarios for the northern high latitudes is to understand land surface feedbacks associated with vegetation shifts and ecosystem biogeochemical cycling. We employed a customized, Arctic version of the individual-based dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to simulate the dynamics of upland and wetland ecosystems under a regional climate model–downscaled future climate projection for the Arctic and Subarctic. The simulated vegetation distribution (1961–1990) agreed well with a composite map of actual arctic vegetation. In the future (2051–2080), a poleward advance of the forest–tundra boundary, an expansion of tall shrub tundra, and a dominance shift from deciduous to evergreen boreal conifer forest over northern Eurasia were simulated. Ecosystems continued to sink carbon for the next few decades, although the size of these sinks diminished by the late 21st century. Hot spots of increased CH 4 emission were identified in the peatlands near Hudson Bay and western Siberia. In terms of their net impact on regional climate forcing, positive feedbacks associated with the negative effects of tree-line, shrub cover and forest phenology changes on snow-season albedo, as well as the larger sources of CH 4 , may potentially dominate over negative feedbacks due to increased carbon sequestration and increased latent heat flux. (letter)

  11. Modelling effects of geoengineering options in response to climate change and global warming: implications for coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M J C

    2009-12-01

    Climate change will have serious effects on the planet and on its ecosystems. Currently, mitigation efforts are proving ineffectual in reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Coral reefs are the most sensitive ecosystems on the planet to climate change, and here we review modelling a number of geoengineering options, and their potential influence on coral reefs. There are two categories of geoengineering, shortwave solar radiation management and longwave carbon dioxide removal. The first set of techniques only reduce some, but not all, effects of climate change, while possibly creating other problems. They also do not affect CO2 levels and therefore fail to address the wider effects of rising CO2, including ocean acidification, important for coral reefs. Solar radiation is important to coral growth and survival, and solar radiation management is not in general appropriate for this ecosystem. Longwave carbon dioxide removal techniques address the root cause of climate change, rising CO2 concentrations, they have relatively low uncertainties and risks. They are worthy of further research and potential implementation, particularly carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation methods, alongside increased mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

  12. The role of perioperative warming in surgery: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shafique Sajid

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The objective of this review was to systematically analyze the trials on the effectiveness of perioperative warming in surgical patients. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken. Clinical trials on perioperative warming were selected according to specific criteria and analyzed to generate summative data expressed as standardized mean difference (SMD. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies encompassing 3,599 patients in various surgical disciplines were retrieved from the electronic databases. Nineteen randomized trials on 1785 patients qualified for this review. The no-warming group developed statistically significant hypothermia. In the fixed effect model, the warming group had significantly less pain and lower incidence of wound infection, compared with the no-warming group. In the random effect model, the warming group was also associated with lower risk of post-anesthetic shivering. Both in the random and the fixed effect models, the warming group was associated with significantly less blood loss. However, there was significant heterogeneity among the trials. CONCLUSION: Perioperative warming of surgical patients is effective in reducing postoperative wound pain, wound infection and shivering. Systemic warming of the surgical patient is also associated with less perioperative blood loss through preventing hypothermia-induced coagulopathy. Perioperative warming may be given routinely to all patients of various surgical disciplines in order to counteract the consequences of hypothermia.

  13. Analysis on influence factors of China's CO2 emissions based on Path-STIRPAT model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Huanan; Mu Hailin; Zhang Ming; Li Nan

    2011-01-01

    With the intensification of global warming and continued growth in energy consumption, China is facing increasing pressure to cut its CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emissions down. This paper discusses the driving forces influencing China's CO 2 emissions based on Path-STIRPAT model-a method combining Path analysis with STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology) model. The analysis shows that GDP per capita (A), industrial structure (IS), population (P), urbanization level (R) and technology level (T) are the main factors influencing China's CO 2 emissions, which exert an influence interactively and collaboratively. The sequence of the size of factors' direct influence on China's CO 2 emission is A>T>P>R>IS, while that of factors' total influence is A>R>P>T>IS. One percent increase in A, IS, P, R and T leads to 0.44, 1.58, 1.31, 1.12 and -1.09 percentage change in CO 2 emission totally, where their direct contribution is 0.45, 0.07, 0.63, 0.08, 0.92, respectively. Improving T is the most important way for CO 2 reduction in China. - Highlights: → We analyze the driving forces influencing China's CO 2 emissions. → Five macro factors like per capita GDP are the main influencing factors. → These factors exert an influence interactively and collaboratively. → Different factors' direct and total influence on China's CO 2 emission is different. → Improving technology level is the most important way for CO 2 reduction in China.

  14. Warm pre-stressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedner, G.

    1983-01-01

    Literature survey and critical evaluation of the phenomenon of warm pre-stressing (WPS) is presented. It is found that the cause of it is not clear and a calculated control is missing. The effect of irradiation is unknown, and the influence of WPS on the behaviour of reactor vessels is discussed. (G.B.)

  15. Being Warm-Hearted

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李函; 任汉鼎

    2017-01-01

    Good morning,ladies and gentlemen.It’s my honor to address[向……致辞] you.My English name is Isabella.I’m a high school student of 17.I have some good personality traits[特点],including being warm-hearted.So here comes my topic:Being

  16. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  17. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  18. Paralyzed warming world

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 81-86 ISSN 1876-8156 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : global warming * climate Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://ojs.ubvu.vu.nl/alf/article/view/134/250

  19. Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

    2006-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

  20. Hierarchical and coupling model of factors influencing vessel traffic flow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Liu

    Full Text Available Understanding the characteristics of vessel traffic flow is crucial in maintaining navigation safety, efficiency, and overall waterway transportation management. Factors influencing vessel traffic flow possess diverse features such as hierarchy, uncertainty, nonlinearity, complexity, and interdependency. To reveal the impact mechanism of the factors influencing vessel traffic flow, a hierarchical model and a coupling model are proposed in this study based on the interpretative structural modeling method. The hierarchical model explains the hierarchies and relationships of the factors using a graph. The coupling model provides a quantitative method that explores interaction effects of factors using a coupling coefficient. The coupling coefficient is obtained by determining the quantitative indicators of the factors and their weights. Thereafter, the data obtained from Port of Tianjin is used to verify the proposed coupling model. The results show that the hierarchical model of the factors influencing vessel traffic flow can explain the level, structure, and interaction effect of the factors; the coupling model is efficient in analyzing factors influencing traffic volumes. The proposed method can be used for analyzing increases in vessel traffic flow in waterway transportation system.

  1. Hierarchical and coupling model of factors influencing vessel traffic flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhao; Liu, Jingxian; Li, Huanhuan; Li, Zongzhi; Tan, Zhirong; Liu, Ryan Wen; Liu, Yi

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the characteristics of vessel traffic flow is crucial in maintaining navigation safety, efficiency, and overall waterway transportation management. Factors influencing vessel traffic flow possess diverse features such as hierarchy, uncertainty, nonlinearity, complexity, and interdependency. To reveal the impact mechanism of the factors influencing vessel traffic flow, a hierarchical model and a coupling model are proposed in this study based on the interpretative structural modeling method. The hierarchical model explains the hierarchies and relationships of the factors using a graph. The coupling model provides a quantitative method that explores interaction effects of factors using a coupling coefficient. The coupling coefficient is obtained by determining the quantitative indicators of the factors and their weights. Thereafter, the data obtained from Port of Tianjin is used to verify the proposed coupling model. The results show that the hierarchical model of the factors influencing vessel traffic flow can explain the level, structure, and interaction effect of the factors; the coupling model is efficient in analyzing factors influencing traffic volumes. The proposed method can be used for analyzing increases in vessel traffic flow in waterway transportation system.

  2. Chou-Yang model and PHI form factor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fazal-e-Aleem; Saleem, M.; Rafique, M.

    1988-03-01

    By using the deduced differential cross-section data for PHIp elastic scattering at 175 GeV/c in the Chou-Yang model, the PHI form factor has been computed and parametrized. Then in conjunction with the proton form factor this form factor is used in the pristine Chou-Yang model to obtain differential cross-section data at Fermilab energies. The theoretical results agree with the experimental measurements, endorsing the conjecture that the hadronic form factor of neutral particle is proportional to its magnetic form factor.

  3. Modeling global scene factors in attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torralba, Antonio

    2003-07-01

    Models of visual attention have focused predominantly on bottom-up approaches that ignored structured contextual and scene information. I propose a model of contextual cueing for attention guidance based on the global scene configuration. It is shown that the statistics of low-level features across the whole image can be used to prime the presence or absence of objects in the scene and to predict their location, scale, and appearance before exploring the image. In this scheme, visual context information can become available early in the visual processing chain, which allows modulation of the saliency of image regions and provides an efficient shortcut for object detection and recognition. 2003 Optical Society of America

  4. European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Busetto, L.; Galvagno, M.; Ganis, L.; Meroni, M.; Pari, E.; Rossini, M.; Siniscalco, C.; Morra di Cella, U.

    2008-09-01

    Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

  5. Testing for time-varying loadings in dynamic factor models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Jakob Guldbæk

    Abstract: In this paper we develop a test for time-varying factor loadings in factor models. The test is simple to compute and is constructed from estimated factors and residuals using the principal components estimator. The hypothesis is tested by regressing the squared residuals on the squared...... there is evidence of time-varying loadings on the risk factors underlying portfolio returns for around 80% of the portfolios....

  6. [Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

    2012-11-01

    Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

  7. Collection, transfer and transport of waste: accounting of greenhouse gases and global warming contribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisted, Rasmus; Larsen, Anna Warberg; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2009-01-01

    ) emissions were quantified. The emission factors were assigned a global warming potential (GWP) and aggregated into global warming factors (GWFs), which express the potential contribution to global warming from collection, transport and transfer of 1 tonne of wet waste. Six examples involving collection...

  8. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance; Zavodsky, Brad; Case, Jon; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  9. Warm Inflation with Nonminimal Derivative Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashidi, N.; Nozari, Kourosh; Shoukrani, M.

    2014-01-01

    We study the effects of the nonminimal derivative coupling on the dissipative dynamics of the warm inflation where the scalar field is nonminimally coupled to gravity via its kinetic term. We present a detailed calculation of the cosmological perturbations in this setup. We use the recent observational data from the joint data set of WMAP9 + BAO + H 0 and also the Planck satellite data to constrain our model parameters for natural and chaotic inflation potentials. We study also the levels of non-Gaussianity in this warm inflation model and we confront the result with recent observational data from the Planck satellite

  10. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

    2018-04-30

    The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

  11. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  12. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  13. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  14. Satellite observations and modeling of transport in the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere during the 2006 major stratospheric sudden warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. H. Daffer

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM, and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results

  15. The determinant factors of open business model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Mejía-Trejo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Intro ducción : Desde principios del siglo XXI, varios autores afirman que los modelos de negocio abiertos (OBM permiten a una organización ser más eficaz en la creación y la ca p tura de valor siendo un requisito previo para el éxito de las asociaciones de co - des arrollo. Como resultado de las tendencias de: crecientes costos de desarrollo y ciclos de vida de los produ c tos/servicios más cortos, las empresas encuentran cada vez más difícil justificar las inversi o nes en innovación. El OBM resuelve ambas tendencias, s ubrayando los términos: " ecosistema de la industria " y/o " modelo de negocio colaborativo ". No sólo cambia el pr o ceso de innovación, sino que también modifica a las propias organizaciones mediante la r e configuración de sus cadenas de valor y redes. Para las empresas, crea una lógica heurística basada en el actual modelo de negocio y tecnología para extenderlas, con estrategia, al desa r rollo de la innov a ción para crear valor y aumentar los ingresos y beneficios. Enfatiza tanto las relaciones exte r nas así como la gobernabilidad, como valiosos recursos con varios roles que promueven la competitividad corporativa. Por lo tanto, para un sector especializado de alta tecnología como lo es el de las tecnologías de la información de la zona metropolitana de Guadalajar a (IT S MZG, exponemos el siguiente problema de investigación: ¿Cuáles son los factores determinantes de la OBM como modelo empírico que se aplc a do en el ITSMZG? Método: Como se ve, esta investigación tiene como objetivo plantear, los factores determ i nantes de la OBM como un modelo empírico que sea aplicado en el ITSMZG.Se trata de un estudio documental para seleccionar las principales v a riables entre los especialistas de las ITSMZG que practican el proceso OBM mediante el proceso de j e rarquía analítica (AHP y el Panel de Delphi a fin de contrastar los términos académicos con la experiencia de los e s pecialistas. Es un

  16. Identifying the warm glow effect in contingent valuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes, P.A.L.D.; Schokkaert, E.

    2003-01-01

    This paper reports the results from a contingent valuation study designed to investigate the influence of warm glow in willingness to pay (WTP) responses. Interindividual differences in warm glow motivation are measured through a factor analysis, performed on a list of attitudinal items. The

  17. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  18. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    Observed and model simulated warming is particularly large in high latitudes, and hence the Arctic is often seen as the posterchild of vulnerability to global warming. However, Mahlstein et al (2011) point out that the signal of climate change is emerging locally from that of climate variability earliest in regions of low climate variability, based on climate model data, and in agreement with observations. This is because high latitude regions are not only regions of strong feedbacks that enhance the global warming signal, but also regions of substantial climate variability, driven by strong dynamics and enhanced by feedbacks (Hall 2004). Hence the spatial pattern of both observed warming and simulated warming for the 20th century shows strong warming in high latitudes, but this warming occurs against a backdrop of strong variability. Thus, the ratio of the warming to internal variability is not necessarily highest in the regions that warm fastest—and Mahlstein et al illustrate that it is actually the low-variability regions where the signal of local warming emerges first from that of climate variability. Thus, regions with strongest warming are neither the most important to diagnose that forcing changes climate, nor are they the regions which will necessarily experience the strongest impact. The importance of the signal-to-noise ratio has been known to the detection and attribution community, but has been buried in technical 'optimal fingerprinting' literature (e.g., Hasselmann 1979, Allen and Tett 1999), where it was used for an earlier detection of climate change by emphasizing aspects of the fingerprint of global warming associated with low variability in estimates of the observed warming. What, however, was not discussed was that the local signal-to-noise ratio is of interest also for local climate change: where temperatures emerge from the range visited by internal climate variability, it is reasonable to assume that changes in climate will also cause more

  19. Global warming potential of pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  20. Global warming potential of pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

    2009-01-01

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  1. Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salzmann, Marc

    2016-06-01

    Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

  2. Warm Absorber Diagnostics of AGN Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallman, Timothy

    Warm absorbers and related phenomena are observable manifestations of outflows or winds from active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have great potential value. Understanding AGN outflows is important for explaining the mass budgets of the central accreting black hole, and also for understanding feedback and the apparent co-evolution of black holes and their host galaxies. In the X-ray band warm absorbers are observed as photoelectric absorption and resonance line scattering features in the 0.5-10 keV energy band; the UV band also shows resonance line absorption. Warm absorbers are common in low luminosity AGN and they have been extensively studied observationally. They may play an important role in AGN feedback, regulating the net accretion onto the black hole and providing mechanical energy to the surroundings. However, fundamental properties of the warm absorbers are not known: What is the mechanism which drives the outflow?; what is the gas density in the flow and the geometrical distribution of the outflow?; what is the explanation for the apparent relation between warm absorbers and the surprising quasi-relativistic 'ultrafast outflows' (UFOs)? We propose a focused set of model calculations that are aimed at synthesizing observable properties of warm absorber flows and associated quantities. These will be used to explore various scenarios for warm absorber dynamics in order to answer the questions in the previous paragraph. The guiding principle will be to examine as wide a range as possible of warm absorber driving mechanisms, geometry and other properties, but with as careful consideration as possible to physical consistency. We will build on our previous work, which was a systematic campaign for testing important class of scenarios for driving the outflows. We have developed a set of tools that are unique and well suited for dynamical calculations including radiation in this context. We also have state-of-the-art tools for generating synthetic spectra, which are

  3. Future precipitation changes over China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming targets by using CORDEX regional climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huixin; Chen, Huopo; Wang, Huijun; Yu, Entao

    2018-06-01

    This study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes over China based on regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-East Asia project. The results of five RCMs involved in CORDEX-East Asia project that driven by HadGEM2-AO are compared with the simulation of CMA-RegCM driven by BCC-CSM1.1. Eleven precipitation extreme indices that developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are employed to evaluate precipitation extreme changes over China. Generally, RCMs can reproduce their spatiotemporal characteristics over China in comparison with observations. For future climate projections, RCMs indicate that both the occurrence and intensity of precipitation extremes in most regions of China will increase when the global temperature increases by 1.5/2.0 °C. The yearly maximum five-day precipitation (RX5D) averaged over China is reported to increase by 4.4% via the CMA-RegCM under the 1.5 °C warming in comparison with the baseline period (1986-2005); however, a relatively large increase of 11.1% is reported by the multi-model ensemble median (MME) when using the other five models. Furthermore, the reoccurring risks of precipitation extremes over most regions of China will further increase due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. For example, RX5D will further increase by approximately 8.9% over NWC, 3.8% over NC, 2.3% over SC, and approximately 1.0% over China. Extremes, such as the historical 20-year return period event of yearly maximum one-day precipitation (RX1D) and RX5D, will become more frequent, with occurrences happening once every 8.8 years (RX1D) and 11.5 years (RX5D) under the 1.5 °C warming target, and there will be two fewer years due to the additional 0.5 °C warming. In addition, the intensity of these events will increase by approximately 9.2% (8.5%) under the 1.5 °C warming target and 12.6% (11.0%) under the 2.0 °C warming

  4. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  5. An alternative method for centrifugal compressor loading factor modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galerkin, Y.; Drozdov, A.; Rekstin, A.; Soldatova, K.

    2017-08-01

    The loading factor at design point is calculated by one or other empirical formula in classical design methods. Performance modelling as a whole is out of consideration. Test data of compressor stages demonstrates that loading factor versus flow coefficient at the impeller exit has a linear character independent of compressibility. Known Universal Modelling Method exploits this fact. Two points define the function - loading factor at design point and at zero flow rate. The proper formulae include empirical coefficients. A good modelling result is possible if the choice of coefficients is based on experience and close analogs. Earlier Y. Galerkin and K. Soldatova had proposed to define loading factor performance by the angle of its inclination to the ordinate axis and by the loading factor at zero flow rate. Simple and definite equations with four geometry parameters were proposed for loading factor performance calculated for inviscid flow. The authors of this publication have studied the test performance of thirteen stages of different types. The equations are proposed with universal empirical coefficients. The calculation error lies in the range of plus to minus 1,5%. The alternative model of a loading factor performance modelling is included in new versions of the Universal Modelling Method.

  6. Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frieler, Katja; Betts, Richard; Burke, J.; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Denvil, Sebastien; Deryng, Delphine; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler; Emanuel, Kerry; Elliot, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Halladay, Kate; Hattermann, F.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, Jochen; Huber, Veronika; Jones, Chris D.; Krysanova, V.; Lange, Stefan; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Mengel, Matthias; Mouratiadou, I.; Muller Schmied, Hannes; Ostberg, Sebastian; Piontek, Franziska; Popp, Alexander; Reyer, Christopher Paul Oliver; Schewe, Jacob; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, T.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Richard; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Warszawski, L.; Zhao, Fang

    2016-01-01

    In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial

  7. Model of key success factors for Business Intelligence implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Mesaros

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available New progressive technologies recorded growth in every area. Information-communication technologies facilitate the exchange of information and it facilitates management of everyday activities in enterprises. Specific modules (such as Business Intelligence facilitate decision-making. Several studies have demonstrated the positive impact of Business Intelligence to decision-making. The first step is to put in place the enterprise. The implementation process is influenced by many factors. This article discusses the issue of key success factors affecting to successful implementation of Business Intelligence. The article describes the key success factors for successful implementation and use of Business Intelligence based on multiple studies. The main objective of this study is to verify the effects and dependence of selected factors and proposes a model of key success factors for successful implementation of Business Intelligence. Key success factors and the proposed model are studied in Slovak enterprises.

  8. Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Hays, Spencer; Shen, Haipeng; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2012-01-01

    resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM

  9. Human Modeling for Ground Processing Human Factors Engineering Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stambolian, Damon B.; Lawrence, Brad A.; Stelges, Katrine S.; Steady, Marie-Jeanne O.; Ridgwell, Lora C.; Mills, Robert E.; Henderson, Gena; Tran, Donald; Barth, Tim

    2011-01-01

    There have been many advancements and accomplishments over the last few years using human modeling for human factors engineering analysis for design of spacecraft. The key methods used for this are motion capture and computer generated human models. The focus of this paper is to explain the human modeling currently used at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and to explain the future plans for human modeling for future spacecraft designs

  10. Dependent defaults and losses with factor copula models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ackerer Damien

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with paircopula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss distribution of a portfolio of contingent claims can be exactly and efficiently computed when individual losses are discretely supported on a finite grid. Numerical examples study the key features affecting the loss distribution and multi-name credit derivatives prices. An empirical exercise illustrates the flexibility of our approach by fitting credit index tranche prices.

  11. Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise

    2018-01-01

    Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

  12. Quantifying credit portfolio losses under multi-factor models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Colldeforns-Papiol (Gemma); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractIn this work, we investigate the challenging problem of estimating credit risk measures of portfolios with exposure concentration under the multi-factor Gaussian and multi-factor t-copula models. It is well-known that Monte Carlo (MC) methods are highly demanding from the computational

  13. Rethinking "Harmonious Parenting" Using a Three-Factor Discipline Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenspan, Stephen

    2006-01-01

    Diana Baumrind's typology of parenting is based on a two-factor model of "control" and "warmth". Her recommended discipline style, labeled "authoritative parenting", was constructed by taking high scores on these two factors. A problem with authoritative parenting is that it does not allow for flexible and differentiated responses to discipline…

  14. Person-fit to the Five Factor Model of personality

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Allik, J.; Realo, A.; Mõttus, R.; Borkenau, P.; Kuppens, P.; Hřebíčková, Martina

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 71, č. 1 (2012), s. 35-45 ISSN 1421-0185 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP407/10/2394 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70250504 Keywords : Five Factor Model * cross - cultural comparison * person-fit Subject RIV: AN - Psychology Impact factor: 0.638, year: 2012

  15. Is There Really a Global Business Cycle? : A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Factor Selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Berger (Tino); L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961-2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with

  16. Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

    2014-01-01

    Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

  17. Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

  18. Forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Botkin, D.B.; Saxe, H.; Araújo, M.B.

    2007-01-01

    The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. In this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche...... and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions...

  19. A real-time Global Warming Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

    2017-11-13

    We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

  20. Aggressive re-warming at 38.5 degrees C following deep hypothermia at 21 degrees C increases neutrophil membrane bound elastase activity and pro-inflammatory factor release

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tang, Min; Zhao, Xiao-gang; He, Yi; Gu, Yan; Mei, Ju

    2016-01-01

    Background: Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) is often performed under hypothermic condition. The effects of hypothermia and re-warming on neutrophil activity are unclear. This study aimed to compare the effects of different hypothermia and re-warming regimens on neutrophil membrane bound elastase (MBE)

  1. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  2. Testing alternative factor models of PTSD and the robustness of the dysphoria factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elklit, Ask; Armour, Cherie; Shevlin, Mark

    2010-01-01

    This study first aimed to examine the structure of self-reported posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms using three different samples. The second aim of the paper was to test the robustness of the factor analytic model when depression scores were controlled for. Based on previous factor analytic findings and the DSM-IV formulation, six confirmatory factor models were specified and estimated that reflected different symptom clusters. The best fitting model was subsequently re-fitted to the data after including a depression variable. The analyses were based on responses from 973 participants across three samples. Sample 1 consisted of 633 parents who were members of 'The National Association of Infant Death' and who had lost a child. Sample 2 consisted of 227 victims of rape, who completed a questionnaire within 4 weeks of the rape. Each respondent had been in contact with the Centre for Rape Victims (CRV) at the Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. Sample 3 consisted of 113 refugees resident in Denmark. All participants had been referred to a treatment centre which focused on rehabilitating refugees through treatment for psychosocial integration problems (RRCF: Rehabliterings og Revliderings Centre for Flygtninge). In total 500 participants received a diagnosis of PTSD/sub-clinical PTSD (Sample 1, N=214; 2, N=176; 3, N=110). A correlated four-factor model with re-experiencing, avoidance, dysphoria, and arousal factors provided the best fit to the sample data. The average attenuation in the factor loadings was highest for the dysphoria factor (M=-.26, SD=.11) compared to the re-experiencing (M=-.14, SD=.18), avoidance (M=-.10, SD=.21), and arousal (M=-.09, SD=.13) factors. With regards to the best fitting factor model these results concur with previous research findings using different trauma populations but do not reflect the current DSM-IV symptom groupings. The attenuation of dysphoria factor loadings suggests that dysphoria is a non-specific component of

  3. Innovative supply chain optimization models with multiple uncertainty factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Tsan Ming; Govindan, Kannan; Li, Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent factor that affects all dimensions of supply chain activities. In today’s business environment, initiatives to deal with one specific type of uncertainty might not be effective since other types of uncertainty factors and disruptions may be present. These factors relate...... to supply chain competition and coordination. Thus, to achieve a more efficient and effective supply chain requires the deployment of innovative optimization models and novel methods. This preface provides a concise review of critical research issues regarding innovative supply chain optimization models...

  4. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  5. A temperature dependent slip factor based thermal model for friction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper proposes a new slip factor based three-dimensional thermal model to predict the temperature distribution during friction stir welding of 304L stainless steel plates. The proposed model employs temperature and radius dependent heat source to study the thermal cycle, temperature distribution, power required, the ...

  6. Study on visibility evaluation model which is considered field factors; Field factor wo koryoshita shininsei hyoka model ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakanishi, M; Hagiwara, T [Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan)

    1997-10-01

    The present study proposes a model to evaluate visual performance of road traffic facilities required for drivers. Two factors were employed to obtain the suitable contrast for drivers under driving situation. One factor is a suitable luminance range, which is derived from minimum required luminance and glare luminance. Another is a field. The model showed capability of providing visibility range in some cases. 8 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2016-01-01

    Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045

  8. Capital Cost Optimization for Prefabrication: A Factor Analysis Evaluation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Xue

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available High capital cost is a significant hindrance to the promotion of prefabrication. In order to optimize cost management and reduce capital cost, this study aims to explore the latent factors and factor analysis evaluation model. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to explore potential variables and then questionnaire survey was employed to collect professionals’ views on their effects. After data collection, exploratory factor analysis was adopted to explore the latent factors. Seven latent factors were identified, including “Management Index”, “Construction Dissipation Index”, “Productivity Index”, “Design Efficiency Index”, “Transport Dissipation Index”, “Material increment Index” and “Depreciation amortization Index”. With these latent factors, a factor analysis evaluation model (FAEM, divided into factor analysis model (FAM and comprehensive evaluation model (CEM, was established. The FAM was used to explore the effect of observed variables on the high capital cost of prefabrication, while the CEM was used to evaluate comprehensive cost management level on prefabrication projects. Case studies were conducted to verify the models. The results revealed that collaborative management had a positive effect on capital cost of prefabrication. Material increment costs and labor costs had significant impacts on production cost. This study demonstrated the potential of on-site management and standardization design to reduce capital cost. Hence, collaborative management is necessary for cost management of prefabrication. Innovation and detailed design were needed to improve cost performance. The new form of precast component factories can be explored to reduce transportation cost. Meanwhile, targeted strategies can be adopted for different prefabrication projects. The findings optimized the capital cost and improved the cost performance through providing an evaluation and optimization model, which helps managers to

  9. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  10. Factor copula models for data with spatio-temporal dependence

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel

    2017-10-13

    We propose a new copula model for spatial data that are observed repeatedly in time. The model is based on the assumption that there exists a common factor that affects the measurements of a process in space and in time. Unlike models based on multivariate normality, our model can handle data with tail dependence and asymmetry. The likelihood for the proposed model can be obtained in a simple form and therefore parameter estimation is quite fast. Simulation from this model is straightforward and data can be predicted at any spatial location and time point. We use simulation studies to show different types of dependencies, both in space and in time, that can be generated by this model. We apply the proposed copula model to hourly wind data and compare its performance with some classical models for spatio-temporal data.

  11. Factor copula models for data with spatio-temporal dependence

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a new copula model for spatial data that are observed repeatedly in time. The model is based on the assumption that there exists a common factor that affects the measurements of a process in space and in time. Unlike models based on multivariate normality, our model can handle data with tail dependence and asymmetry. The likelihood for the proposed model can be obtained in a simple form and therefore parameter estimation is quite fast. Simulation from this model is straightforward and data can be predicted at any spatial location and time point. We use simulation studies to show different types of dependencies, both in space and in time, that can be generated by this model. We apply the proposed copula model to hourly wind data and compare its performance with some classical models for spatio-temporal data.

  12. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  13. Establishment and verification of solar radiation calculation model of glass daylighting roof in hot summer and warm winter zone in China

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng, Caidan; Wu, Peihao; Costanzo, Vincenzo; Wang, Yuchen; Yang, Xiaokun

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, solar heat gain through glass daylighting roof is deeply studied by theoretical calculation method, taking Guangzhou in the Hot Summer and Warm Winter (HSWW) zone as an example. The direct solar radiation is calculated by Bouguer formula whereas the diffuse solar radiation is calculated by Berlage formula, representing the basis for the calculation method of the solar radiation intensity through the glass daylighting roof. Through the establishment of solar radiation calculatio...

  14. Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

    2018-02-01

    To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

  15. The effect of warming on grassland evapotranspiration partitioning using laser-based isotope monitoring techniques

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Lixin; Niu, Shuli; Good, Stephen P.; Soderberg, Keir; McCabe, Matthew; Sherry, Rebecca A.; Luo, Yiqi; Zhou, Xuhui; Xia, Jianyang; Caylor, Kelly K.

    2013-01-01

    The proportion of transpiration (T) in total evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter that provides insight into the degree of biological influence on the hydrological cycles. Studies addressing the effects of climatic warming on the ecosystem total water balance are scarce, and measured warming effects on the T/ET ratio in field experiments have not been seen in the literature. In this study, we quantified T/ET ratios under ambient and warming treatments in a grassland ecosystem using a stable isotope approach. The measurements were made at a long-term grassland warming site in Oklahoma during the May-June peak growing season of 2011. Chamber-based methods were used to estimate the δ2H isotopic composition of evaporation (δE), transpiration (δT) and the aggregated evapotranspiration (δET). A modified commercial conifer leaf chamber was used for δT, a modified commercial soil chamber was used for δE and a custom built chamber was used for δET. The δE, δET and δT were quantified using both the Keeling plot approach and a mass balance method, with the Craig-Gordon model approach also used to calculate δE. Multiple methods demonstrated no significant difference between control and warming plots for both δET and δT. Though the chamber-based estimates and the Craig-Gordon results diverged by about 12‰, all methods showed that δE was more depleted in the warming plots. This decrease in δE indicates that the evaporation flux as a percentage of total water flux necessarily decreased for δET to remain constant, which was confirmed by field observations. The T/ET ratio in the control treatment was 0.65 or 0.77 and the ratio found in the warming treatment was 0.83 or 0.86, based on the chamber method and the Craig-Gordon approach. Sensitivity analysis of the Craig-Gordon model demonstrates that the warming-induced decrease in soil liquid water isotopic composition is the major factor responsible for the observed δE depletion and the temperature

  16. The effect of warming on grassland evapotranspiration partitioning using laser-based isotope monitoring techniques

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Lixin

    2013-06-01

    The proportion of transpiration (T) in total evapotranspiration (ET) is an important parameter that provides insight into the degree of biological influence on the hydrological cycles. Studies addressing the effects of climatic warming on the ecosystem total water balance are scarce, and measured warming effects on the T/ET ratio in field experiments have not been seen in the literature. In this study, we quantified T/ET ratios under ambient and warming treatments in a grassland ecosystem using a stable isotope approach. The measurements were made at a long-term grassland warming site in Oklahoma during the May-June peak growing season of 2011. Chamber-based methods were used to estimate the δ2H isotopic composition of evaporation (δE), transpiration (δT) and the aggregated evapotranspiration (δET). A modified commercial conifer leaf chamber was used for δT, a modified commercial soil chamber was used for δE and a custom built chamber was used for δET. The δE, δET and δT were quantified using both the Keeling plot approach and a mass balance method, with the Craig-Gordon model approach also used to calculate δE. Multiple methods demonstrated no significant difference between control and warming plots for both δET and δT. Though the chamber-based estimates and the Craig-Gordon results diverged by about 12‰, all methods showed that δE was more depleted in the warming plots. This decrease in δE indicates that the evaporation flux as a percentage of total water flux necessarily decreased for δET to remain constant, which was confirmed by field observations. The T/ET ratio in the control treatment was 0.65 or 0.77 and the ratio found in the warming treatment was 0.83 or 0.86, based on the chamber method and the Craig-Gordon approach. Sensitivity analysis of the Craig-Gordon model demonstrates that the warming-induced decrease in soil liquid water isotopic composition is the major factor responsible for the observed δE depletion and the temperature

  17. Evaluation of the tropospheric flows to a major Southern Hemisphere stratospheric warming event using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data with a PSU/NCAR nudging MM5V3 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, K.

    2008-04-01

    Previous studies of the exceptional 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming event lead to some uncertainty, namely the question of whether excessive heat fluxes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere are a symptom or cause of the 2002 SH warming event. In this work, we use a hemispheric version of the MM5 model with nudging capability and we devised a novel approach to separately test the significance of the stratosphere and troposphere for this year. We paired the flow conditions from 2002 in the stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, against the conditions in 1998 (a year with displaced polar vortex) and in 1948 (a year with strong polar vortex that coincided with the geographical South Pole). Our experiments show that the flow conditions from below determine the stratospheric flow features over the polar region. Regardless of the initial stratospheric conditions in 1998 or 1948, when we simulated these past stratospheres with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conditions constrained to 2002 levels, the simulated middle stratospheres resemble those observed in 2002 stratosphere over the polar region. On the other hand, when the 2002 stratosphere was integrated with the troposphere/lower stratosphere conductions constrained to 1948 and 1998, respectively, the simulated middle stratospheric conditions over the polar region shift toward those of 1948 and 1998. Thus, our experiments further support the wave-forcing theory as the cause of the 2002 SH warming event.

  18. Use of emulsion for warm mix asphalt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahabir Panda

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to increase in energy costs and emission problems in hot mix asphalt usually used, it brought a great interest to the researchers to develop the warm mix technology for pavement constructions. Commonly known as warm mix asphalt (WMA, it is a typical method in the bituminous paving technology, which allows production and placement of bituminous mixes at lower temperatures than that used for hot mix asphalt (HMA. The WMA involves an environmental friendly production process that utilises organic additives, chemical additives and water based technologies. The organic and chemical additives are normally very costly and still involve certain amount of environmental issues. These factors motivated the authors to take up this technology using simple, environment friendly and somewhat cost effective procedure. In this study, an attempt has been made to prepare warm mixes by first pre-coating the aggregates with medium setting bitumen emulsion (MS and then mixing the semi-coated aggregates with VG 30 bitumen at a lower temperature than normally required. After a number of trials it was observed that mostly three mixing temperatures, namely temperatures 110 °C, 120 °C and 130 °C were appropriate to form the bituminous mixes with satisfactory homogeneity and consistency and as such were maintained throughout this study. Marshall samples for paving mixes were prepared using this procedure for dense bituminous macadam (DBM gradings as per the specifications of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH and subsequently Marshall properties of the resultant mixes were studied with the main objective of deciding the different parameters that were considered for development of appropriate warm mix asphalt. In this study it has been observed that out of three mixing temperatures tried, the mixes prepared at 120 °C with bitumen-emulsion composition of 80B:20E for DBM warm mix, offer highest Marshall stability and highest indirect tensile strength

  19. Evaluation of the Thermodynamic Models for the Thermal Diffusion Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gonzalez-Bagnoli, Mariana G.; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2003-01-01

    Over the years, several thermodynamic models for the thermal diffusion factors for binary mixtures have been proposed. The goal of this paper is to test some of these models in combination with different equations of state. We tested the following models: those proposed by Rutherford and Drickamer...... we applied different thermodynamic models, such as the Soave-Redlich-Kwong and the Peng-Robinson equations of state. The necessity to try different thermo-dynamic models is caused by the high sensitivity of the thermal diffusion factors to the values of the partial molar properties. Two different...... corrections for the determination of the partial molar volumes have been implemented; the Peneloux correction and the correction based on the principle of corresponding states....

  20. Uncovering Transcriptional Regulatory Networks by Sparse Bayesian Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Yuan(Alan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The problem of uncovering transcriptional regulation by transcription factors (TFs based on microarray data is considered. A novel Bayesian sparse correlated rectified factor model (BSCRFM is proposed that models the unknown TF protein level activity, the correlated regulations between TFs, and the sparse nature of TF-regulated genes. The model admits prior knowledge from existing database regarding TF-regulated target genes based on a sparse prior and through a developed Gibbs sampling algorithm, a context-specific transcriptional regulatory network specific to the experimental condition of the microarray data can be obtained. The proposed model and the Gibbs sampling algorithm were evaluated on the simulated systems, and results demonstrated the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The proposed model was then applied to the breast cancer microarray data of patients with Estrogen Receptor positive ( status and Estrogen Receptor negative ( status, respectively.

  1. The multi-factor energy input–output model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guevara, Zeus; Domingos, Tiago

    2017-01-01

    Energy input–output analysis (EIO analysis) is a noteworthy tool for the analysis of the role of energy in the economy. However, it has relied on models that provide a limited description of energy flows in the economic system and do not allow an adequate analysis of energy efficiency. This paper introduces a novel energy input–output model, the multi-factor energy input–output model (MF-EIO model), which is obtained from a partitioning of a hybrid-unit input–output system of the economy. This model improves on current models by describing the energy flows according to the processes of energy conversion and the levels of energy use in the economy. It characterizes the vector of total energy output as a function of seven factors: two energy efficiency indicators; two characteristics of end-use energy consumption; and three economic features of the rest of the economy. Moreover, it is consistent with the standard model for EIO analysis, i.e., the hybrid-unit model. This paper also introduces an approximate version of the MF-EIO model, which is equivalent to the former under equal energy prices for industries and final consumers, but requires less data processing. The latter is composed by two linked models: a model of the energy sector in physical units, and a model of the rest of the economy in monetary units. In conclusion, the proposed modelling framework improves EIO analysis and extends EIO applications to the accounting for energy efficiency of the economy. - Highlights: • A novel energy input–output model is introduced. • It allows a more adequate analysis of energy flows than current models. • It describes energy flows according to processes of energy conversion and use. • It can be used for other environmental applications (material use and emissions). • An approximate version of the model is introduced, simpler and less data intensive.

  2. Supplementary Material for: Factor Copula Models for Replicated Spatial Data

    KAUST Repository

    Krupskii, Pavel; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all measurements of the process. Moreover, the proposed copula can model tail dependence and tail asymmetry. The model is parameterized in terms of a covariance function that may be chosen from the many models proposed in the literature, such as the Matérn model. For some choice of common factors, the joint copula density is given in closed form and therefore likelihood estimation is very fast. In the general case, one-dimensional numerical integration is needed to calculate the likelihood, but estimation is still reasonably fast even with large data sets. We use simulation studies to show the wide range of dependence structures that can be generated by the proposed model with different choices of common factors. We apply the proposed model to spatial temperature data and compare its performance with some popular geostatistics models.

  3. A 3-factor model for the FACIT-Sp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canada, Andrea L; Murphy, Patricia E; Fitchett, George; Peterman, Amy H; Schover, Leslie R

    2008-09-01

    The 12-item Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-being Scale (FACIT-Sp) is a popular measure of the religious/spiritual (R/S) components of quality of life (QoL) in patients with cancer. The original factor analyses of the FACIT-Sp supported two factors: Meaning/Peace and Faith. Because Meaning suggests a cognitive aspect of R/S and Peace an affective component, we hypothesized a 3-factor solution: Meaning, Peace, and Faith. Participants were 240 long-term female survivors of cancer who completed the FACIT-Sp, the SF-12, and the BSI 18. We used confirmatory factor analysis to compare the 2- and 3-factor models of the FACIT-Sp and subsequently assessed associations between the resulting solutions and QoL domains. Survivors averaged 44 years of age and 10 years post-diagnosis. A 3-factor solution of the FACIT-Sp significantly improved the fit of the model to the data over the original 2-factor structure (Delta chi(2)=72.36, df=2, p<0.001). Further adjustments to the 3-factor model resulted in a final solution with even better goodness-of-fit indices (chi(2)=59.11, df=1, p=0.13, CFI=1.00, SMRM=0.05).The original Meaning/Peace factor controlling for Faith was associated with mental (r=0.63, p<0.000) and physical (r=0.22, p<0.01) health on the SF-12, and the original Faith factor controlling for Meaning/Peace was negatively associated with mental health (r=-0.15, p<0.05). The 3-factor model was more informative. Specifically, using partial correlations, the Peace factor was only related to mental health (r=0.53, p<0.001); Meaning was related to both physical (r=0.18, p<0.01) and mental (r=0.17, p<0.01) health; and Faith was negatively associated with mental health (r=-0.17, p<0.05). The results of this study support a 3-factor solution of the FACIT-Sp. The new solution not only represents a psychometric improvement over the original, but also enables a more detailed examination of the contribution of different dimensions of R/S to QoL. (c

  4. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  5. Model calculation of the scanned field enhancement factor of CNTs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Amir; Tripathi, V K

    2006-01-01

    The field enhancement factor of a carbon nanotube (CNT) placed in a cluster of CNTs is smaller than an isolated CNT because the electric field on one tube is screened by neighbouring tubes. This screening depends on the length of the CNTs and the spacing between them. We have derived an expression to compute the field enhancement factor of CNTs under any positional distribution of CNTs using a model of a floating sphere between parallel anode and cathode plates. Using this expression we can compute the field enhancement factor of a CNT in a cluster (non-uniformly distributed CNTs). This expression is used to compute the field enhancement factor of a CNT in an array (uniformly distributed CNTs). Comparison has been shown with experimental results and existing models

  6. HIGH DIMENSIONAL COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Mincheva, Martina

    2011-01-01

    The variance covariance matrix plays a central role in the inferential theories of high dimensional factor models in finance and economics. Popular regularization methods of directly exploiting sparsity are not directly applicable to many financial problems. Classical methods of estimating the covariance matrices are based on the strict factor models, assuming independent idiosyncratic components. This assumption, however, is restrictive in practical applications. By assuming sparse error covariance matrix, we allow the presence of the cross-sectional correlation even after taking out common factors, and it enables us to combine the merits of both methods. We estimate the sparse covariance using the adaptive thresholding technique as in Cai and Liu (2011), taking into account the fact that direct observations of the idiosyncratic components are unavailable. The impact of high dimensionality on the covariance matrix estimation based on the factor structure is then studied.

  7. Measures to prevent global warming, and NEDO's energy-saving model projects; Chikyu ondanka boshi taisaku to NEDO sho energy model jigyo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-09-01

    Described herein are United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the world AIJ (Activities Implemented Jointly) projects, and the Japan's measures and NEDO's energy-saving model projects therefor. NEDO has been inviting the public to join the contests for the projects to be implemented as part of the AIJ Japan program for the first time since April 1996. A total of 11 projects were adopted in July, including the model project for recovering heat from red-hot coke with inert gas, to be implemented by NEDO in China. After the first invitation, an individual proposal will be accepted and examined for which no time limit is set. The NEDO's model projects approved so far include demonstration studies on facilities for effective utilization of paper-making sludge, waste heat recovery at steel furnaces, energy-saving at electric furnaces for alloys, effective utilization of waste heat at garbage incinerators, and power saving at cement kilns. (NEDO)

  8. AN INVESTIGATION OF LOCAL EFFECTS ON SURFACE WARMING WITH GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xue

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Urban warming is sensitive to the nature (thermal properties, including albedo, water content, heat capacity and thermal conductivity and the placement (surface geometry or urban topography of urban surface. In the literature the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of urban thermal landscape is widely observed based on thermal infrared remote sensing within the urban environment. Urban surface warming is conceived as a big contribution to urban warming, the study of urban surface warming possesses significant meaning for probing into the problem of urban warming.The urban thermal landscape study takes advantage of the continuous surface derived from thermal infrared remote sensing at the landscape scale, the detailed variation of local surface temperature can be measured and analyzed through the systematic investigation. At the same time urban environmental factors can be quantified with remote sensing and GIS techniques. This enables a systematic investigation of urban thermal landscape with a link to be established between local environmental setting and surface temperature variation. The goal of this research is utilizing Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR to analyze the spatial relationship between urban form and surface temperature variation in order to clarify the local effects on surface warming, moreover to reveal the possible dynamics in the local influences of environmental indicators on the variation of local surface temperature across space and time. In this research, GWR analysis proved that the spatial variation in relationships between environmental setting and surface temperature was significant with Monte Carlo significance test and distinctive in day-night change. Comparatively, GWR facilitated the site specific investigation based on local statistical technique. The inference based on GWR model provided enriched information regarding the spatial variation of local environment effect on surface temperature variation which

  9. The five-factor model in schizotypal personality disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Gurrera, Ronald J.; Dickey, Chandlee C.; Niznikiewicz, Margaret A.; Voglmaier, Martina M.; Shenton, Martha E.; McCarley, Robert W.

    2005-01-01

    Studies of the five-factor model of personality in schizotypal personality disorder (SPD) have produced inconsistent results, particularly with respect to openness. In the present study, the NEO-FFI was used to measure five-factor personality dimensions in 28 community volunteers with SPD and 24 psychiatrically healthy individuals. Standard multivariate statistical analyses were used to evaluate personality differences as a function of diagnosis and gender. Individuals with SPD had significan...

  10. DISTANCE AS KEY FACTOR IN MODELLING STUDENTS’ RECRUITMENT BY UNIVERSITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SIMONA MĂLĂESCU

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Distance as Key Factor in Modelling Students’ Recruitment by Universities. In a previous paper analysing the challenge of keeping up with the current methodologies in the analysis and modelling of students’ recruitment by universities in the case of some ECE countries which still don’t register or develop key data to take advantage from the state of the art knowledge on the domain, we have promised to approach the factor distance in a future work due to the extent of the topic. This paper fulfill that promise bringing a review of the literature especially dealing with modelling the geographical area of recruiting students of an university, where combining distance with the proximate key factors previously reviewed, complete the meta-analysis of existing literature we have started a year ago. Beyond the theoretical benefit from a practical perspective, the metaanalysis aimed at synthesizing elements of good practice that can be applied to the local university system.

  11. Consumer's Online Shopping Influence Factors and Decision-Making Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiangbin; Dai, Shiliang

    Previous research on online consumer behavior has mostly been confined to the perceived risk which is used to explain those barriers for purchasing online. However, perceived benefit is another important factor which influences consumers’ decision when shopping online. As a result, an integrated consumer online shopping decision-making model is developed which contains three elements—Consumer, Product, and Web Site. This model proposed relative factors which influence the consumers’ intention during the online shopping progress, and divided them into two different dimensions—mentally level and material level. We tested those factors with surveys, from both online volunteers and offline paper surveys with more than 200 samples. With the help of SEM, the experimental results show that the proposed model and method can be used to analyze consumer’s online shopping decision-making process effectively.

  12. Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Analysis of English literatures related to unified evaluation models for global warming; 1999 nendo chikyu ondanka togo hyoka model kanren eibun shiryo no bunseki choa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    This paper summarizes the basic materials related to unified evaluation models for global warming. The unified evaluation is a disciplinary process to combine, interpret and share the information from different scientific disciplinary areas in such a form that the whole cause and effect chain can be evaluated from a macroscopic view. The process has higher utilization value than the evaluation overemphasizing a single academic area, and can provide decision makers with useful information. The process is suitable to model complex interactions and feedback mechanisms in diversified scenes such as climate change. The unified evaluation can identify the policy criteria along with a measure framework having consistency. The evaluation process is repetitive and continuous, wherein a science community can convey comprehensive knowledge and finding to a decision making community. In turn, the decision making side can feed back the experiences and achievements in learning. Execution of the evaluation requires different approaches, such as judgement of specialists including the modeling methods and experience, discovery as a result of applying the policies, and survey methods. The paper also describes the gaming conception, scenario analysis, and unification evaluation methods. (NEDO)

  13. Warm inflation in f(G) theory of gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M., E-mail: msharif.math@pu.edu.pk; Ikram, A., E-mail: ayeshamaths91@gmail.com [University of the Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Department of Mathematics (Pakistan)

    2016-07-15

    The aim of this paper is to explore warm inflation in the background of f(G) theory of gravity using scalar fields for the FRW universe model. We construct the field equations under slow-roll approximations and evaluate the slow-roll parameters, scalar and tensor power spectra and their corresponding spectral indices using viable power-law model. These parameters are evaluated for a constant as well as variable dissipation factor during intermediate and logamediate inflationary epochs. We also find the number of e-folds and tensor- scalar ratio for each case. The graphical behavior of these parameters proves that the isotropic model in f(G) gravity is compatible with observational Planck data.

  14. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  15. Impact of warm winters on microbial growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål

    2014-05-01

    Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the

  16. A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting

  17. Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Hays, Spencer

    2012-09-01

    Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation- maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.

  18. Container Throughput Forecasting Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and ARIMAX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Intihar

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the impact of integration of macroeconomic indicators on the accuracy of container throughput time series forecasting model. For this purpose, a Dynamic factor analysis and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average model with eXogenous inputs (ARIMAX are used. Both methodologies are integrated into a novel four-stage heuristic procedure. Firstly, dynamic factors are extracted from external macroeconomic indicators influencing the observed throughput. Secondly, the family of ARIMAX models of different orders is generated based on the derived factors. In the third stage, the diagnostic and goodness-of-fit testing is applied, which includes statistical criteria such as fit performance, information criteria, and parsimony. Finally, the best model is heuristically selected and tested on the real data of the Port of Koper. The results show that by applying macroeconomic indicators into the forecasting model, more accurate future throughput forecasts can be achieved. The model is also used to produce future forecasts for the next four years indicating a more oscillatory behaviour in (2018-2020. Hence, care must be taken concerning any bigger investment decisions initiated from the management side. It is believed that the proposed model might be a useful reinforcement of the existing forecasting module in the observed port.

  19. Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

    2010-01-01

    Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required

  20. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2018-03-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  1. Dynamic Multi-Factor Credit Risk Model with Fat-Tailed Factors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 62, č. 2 (2012), s. 125-140 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) GAUK 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : credit risk * probability of default * loss given default * credit loss * credit loss distribution * Basel II Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.340, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/smid-dynamic multi-factor credit risk model with fat-tailed factors.pdf

  2. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  3. Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schario, Tracy A.

    A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

  4. The structure of musical preferences: a five-factor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rentfrow, Peter J; Goldberg, Lewis R; Levitin, Daniel J

    2011-06-01

    Music is a cross-cultural universal, a ubiquitous activity found in every known human culture. Individuals demonstrate manifestly different preferences in music, and yet relatively little is known about the underlying structure of those preferences. Here, we introduce a model of musical preferences based on listeners' affective reactions to excerpts of music from a wide variety of musical genres. The findings from 3 independent studies converged to suggest that there exists a latent 5-factor structure underlying music preferences that is genre free and reflects primarily emotional/affective responses to music. We have interpreted and labeled these factors as (a) a Mellow factor comprising smooth and relaxing styles; (b) an Unpretentious factor comprising a variety of different styles of sincere and rootsy music such as is often found in country and singer-songwriter genres; (c) a Sophisticated factor that includes classical, operatic, world, and jazz; (d) an Intense factor defined by loud, forceful, and energetic music; and (e) a Contemporary factor defined largely by rhythmic and percussive music, such as is found in rap, funk, and acid jazz. The findings from a fourth study suggest that preferences for the MUSIC factors are affected by both the social and the auditory characteristics of the music. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

  5. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  6. Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

    2018-05-01

    Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual

  7. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  8. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-13

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  9. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-01-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  10. Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

    2018-05-01

    We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme

  11. Viscous warm inflation: Hamilton-Jacobi formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhtari, L.; Mohammadi, A.; Sayar, K.; Saaidi, Kh.

    2017-04-01

    Using Hamilton-Jacobi formalism, the scenario of warm inflation with viscous pressure is considered. The formalism gives a way of computing the slow-rolling parameter without extra approximation, and it is well-known as a powerful method in cold inflation. The model is studied in detail for three different cases of the dissipation and bulk viscous pressure coefficients. In the first case where both coefficients are taken as constant, it is shown that the case could not portray warm inflationary scenario compatible with observational data even it is possible to restrict the model parameters. For other cases, the results shows that the model could properly predicts the perturbation parameters in which they stay in perfect agreement with Planck data. As a further argument, r -ns and αs -ns are drown that show the acquired result could stand in acceptable area expressing a compatibility with observational data.

  12. Experimental and natural warming elevates mercury concentrations in estuarine fish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer A Dijkstra

    Full Text Available Marine food webs are the most important link between the global contaminant, methylmercury (MeHg, and human exposure through consumption of seafood. Warming temperatures may increase human exposure to MeHg, a potent neurotoxin, by increasing MeHg production as well as bioaccumulation and trophic transfer through marine food webs. Studies of the effects of temperature on MeHg bioaccumulation are rare and no study has specifically related temperature to MeHg fate by linking laboratory experiments with natural field manipulations in coastal ecosystems. We performed laboratory and field experiments on MeHg accumulation under varying temperature regimes using the killifish, Fundulus heteroclitus. Temperature treatments were established in salt pools on a coastal salt marsh using a natural temperature gradient where killifish fed on natural food sources. Temperatures were manipulated across a wider range in laboratory experiments with killifish exposed to MeHg enriched food. In both laboratory microcosms and field mesocosms, MeHg concentrations in killifish significantly increased at elevated temperatures. Moreover, in field experiments, other ancillary variables (salinity, MeHg in sediment, etc. did not relate to MeHg bioaccumulation. Modeling of laboratory experimental results suggested increases in metabolic rate as a driving factor. The elevated temperatures we tested are consistent with predicted trends in climate warming, and indicate that in the absence of confounding factors, warmer sea surface temperatures could result in greater in bioaccumulation of MeHg in fish, and consequently, increased human exposure.

  13. Type D Personality : a five-factor model perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Fruyt, F.; Denollet, J.K.L.

    2002-01-01

    This study investigated the position of Type D (high Negative Affectivity and high Social Inhibition) within the Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality. A sample of 155 healthy subjects were administered the Type D Scale and the NEO-FFI, assessing the FFM traits. Subjects also filled out the General

  14. The Five-Factor Model of Personality and Career Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Scott E.; Kraimer, Maria L.

    2001-01-01

    Measures of career success and an inventory of the Five-Factor Model of Personality were completed by 496 workers. Extraversion was related positively to salary, promotion, and career satisfaction; neuroticism was related negatively to satisfaction. A significant negative relationship between agreeableness and salary was found for workers in…

  15. A temperature dependent slip factor based thermal model for friction ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    thermal modelling of FSW process by assuming the slip factor as a function of any one of the parameters such as ... Normal load, Fn. 31138 N .... source was moved in discrete steps of 1 mm to simulate the linear motion of the tool. At each load.

  16. Mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From the results obtained, mathematical prediction models were developed using a least square regression analysis for bending, shear and deflection modes of failure considered in the study. The results showed that the safety factors for material, dead and live load are not unique, but they are influenced by safety index ...

  17. The Five-Factor Model and Self-Determination Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Martin Hammershøj; Thomsen, Dorthe Kirkegaard; Schnieber, Anette

    This study investigates conceptual overlap vs. distinction between individual differences in personality traits, i.e. the Five-Factor Model; and Self-determination Theory, i.e. general causality orientations. Twelve-hundred-and-eighty-seven freshmen (mean age 21.71; 64% women) completed electronic...

  18. Reproductive Behavior and Personality Traits of the Five Factor Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jokela, Markus; Alvergne, Alexandra; Pollet, Thomas V.; Lummaa, Virpi

    2011-01-01

    We examined associations between Five Factor Model personality traits and various outcomes of reproductive behavior in a sample of 15 729 women and men from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and Midlife Development in the United States (MIDUS) survey. Personality and reproductive history was

  19. Risk factors and prognostic models for perinatal asphyxia at term

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ensing, S.

    2015-01-01

    This thesis will focus on the risk factors and prognostic models for adverse perinatal outcome at term, with a special focus on perinatal asphyxia and obstetric interventions during labor to reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes. For the majority of the studies in this thesis we were allowed to use data

  20. Bayes Factor Covariance Testing in Item Response Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Jean-Paul; Mulder, Joris; Sinharay, Sandip

    2017-12-01

    Two marginal one-parameter item response theory models are introduced, by integrating out the latent variable or random item parameter. It is shown that both marginal response models are multivariate (probit) models with a compound symmetry covariance structure. Several common hypotheses concerning the underlying covariance structure are evaluated using (fractional) Bayes factor tests. The support for a unidimensional factor (i.e., assumption of local independence) and differential item functioning are evaluated by testing the covariance components. The posterior distribution of common covariance components is obtained in closed form by transforming latent responses with an orthogonal (Helmert) matrix. This posterior distribution is defined as a shifted-inverse-gamma, thereby introducing a default prior and a balanced prior distribution. Based on that, an MCMC algorithm is described to estimate all model parameters and to compute (fractional) Bayes factor tests. Simulation studies are used to show that the (fractional) Bayes factor tests have good properties for testing the underlying covariance structure of binary response data. The method is illustrated with two real data studies.

  1. ON THE PAUSED WARMING CONTROVERSY BASED ON IPCC AR5 AND BEYOND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIKA J.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paused warming since ca. 2002 (maybe, 1998 is not satisfactorily reflected by the IPCC WGI (2013 Report. The aim of the present study is to collect, present and discuss the key arguments of the issue, selected strictly from this valuable Report. Our study tackles three aspects: (i Symptoms of pausing, including atmospheric changes, near-surface oceans, cryosphere and geographical differences. (ii Possible reasons of the paused warming, including external forcing factors, playing rather minor role, and the enhanced ocean heat uptake. Though missing warming is 0.2 K/decade compared to the model expectations, the whole climate system integrates continuously increasing amount of heat, 95 % of which is locked in the oceans. (iii Consequences of the pausing for the three main branches of the IPCC activity. For climate science, correct simulation of the enhanced heat uptake is a challenge. Since characteristic time scale of most adaptation measures is 1-2 decades, or shorter, near-term projections may not drive adaptation until climate models become able meet this challenge. On the other hand, pausing warming does not question the need for mitigation, since it is physically unlikely, that oceans can uptake endless amount of heat. Vertical temperature gradients of the upper ocean layers already show stagnation.

  2. Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

    2017-12-01

    The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

  3. Improved SVR Model for Multi-Layer Buildup Factor Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trontl, K.; Pevec, D.; Smuc, T.

    2006-01-01

    The accuracy of point kernel method applied in gamma ray dose rate calculations in shielding design and radiation safety analysis is limited by the accuracy of buildup factors used in calculations. Although buildup factors for single-layer shields are well defined and understood, buildup factors for stratified shields represent a complex physical problem that is hard to express in mathematical terms. The traditional approach for expressing buildup factors of multi-layer shields is through semi-empirical formulas obtained by fitting the results of transport theory or Monte Carlo calculations. Such an approach requires an ad-hoc definition of the fitting function and often results with numerous and usually inadequately explained and defined correction factors added to the final empirical formula. Even more, finally obtained formulas are generally limited to a small number of predefined combinations of materials within relatively small range of gamma ray energies and shield thicknesses. Recently, a new approach has been suggested by the authors involving one of machine learning techniques called Support Vector Machines, i.e., Support Vector Regression (SVR). Preliminary investigations performed for double-layer shields revealed great potential of the method, but also pointed out some drawbacks of the developed model, mostly related to the selection of one of the parameters describing the problem (material atomic number), and the method in which the model was designed to evolve during the learning process. It is the aim of this paper to introduce a new parameter (single material buildup factor) that is to replace the existing material atomic number as an input parameter. The comparison of two models generated by different input parameters has been performed. The second goal is to improve the evolution process of learning, i.e., the experimental computational procedure that provides a framework for automated construction of complex regression models of predefined

  4. Free-free Gaunt factors: comparison of various models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, L.A.; Merts, A.L.

    1986-01-01

    We develop the general theory of free-free absorption processes in terms of basic quantum mechanical principles. We perform calculations of the free-free Gaunt factor for several models of the electron-atom (ion) interaction in a variety of systems including rare gases, alkali, and aluminum. In addition, we investigate plasma-screening effects in such models as the Yukawa potential. Our calculations compare well with those of other authors, and our comparative study of various models allows a more thorough understanding of their range of validity. 38 refs., 2 figs., 14 tabs

  5. Occam factors and model independent Bayesian learning of continuous distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemenman, Ilya; Bialek, William

    2002-01-01

    Learning of a smooth but nonparametric probability density can be regularized using methods of quantum field theory. We implement a field theoretic prior numerically, test its efficacy, and show that the data and the phase space factors arising from the integration over the model space determine the free parameter of the theory ('smoothness scale') self-consistently. This persists even for distributions that are atypical in the prior and is a step towards a model independent theory for learning continuous distributions. Finally, we point out that a wrong parametrization of a model family may sometimes be advantageous for small data sets

  6. Hadron form factors in the constituent quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardarelli, F.; Salme', G.; Simula, S.; Pace, E.

    1998-01-01

    Hadron electromagnetic form factors are evaluated in a light-front constituent quark model based on the eigenfunctions of a mass operator, including in the q-q interaction a confining term and a one-gluon-exchange term (OGE). The spin-dependent part of the interaction plays an essential role for obtaining both a proper fit of the experimental nucleon electromagnetic form factors and the faster than dipole decrease of the magnetic N-P 33 (1232) transition form factor. The effects of the D wave, produced by the tensor part of the OGE interaction, on the quadrupole and Coulomb N-P 33 (1232) transition form factors have been found to be negligible. (author)

  7. Global warming, energy use, and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Neha

    The dissertation comprises four papers that explore the interactions between global warming, energy use, and economic growth. While the papers are separate entities, they share the underlying theme of highlighting national differences in the growth experience and their implications for long-term energy use and climate change. The first paper provides an overview of some key economic issues in the climate change literature. In doing so, the paper critically appraises the 1995 draft report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The focus is the choice of a pure rate of time preference in the economic modeling of climate change, abatement costs differentials between developed and developing countries, and contrasting implications of standard discount rates and value of life estimates for these two country groups. The second paper develops a global model that takes account of the depletion of oil resources in the context of a geo-economic model for climate change. It is found that in the presence of non-decreasing carbon and energy intensities and declining petroleum availability, the carbon emissions trajectory is much higher than that typically projected by other models of this genre. Furthermore, by introducing price and income sensitive demand functions for fossil fuels, the model provides a framework to assess the effectiveness of fuel specific carbon taxes in reducing the COsb2 emissions trajectory. Cross-price substitution effects necessitate unrealistically high tax rates in order to lower the projected emissions trajectory to the optimal level. The economic structure of five integrated assessment models for climate change is reviewed in the third paper, with a special focus on the macroeconomic and damage assessment modules. The final paper undertakes an econometric estimation of the changing shares of capital, labour, energy, and technical change in explaining the growth patterns of 38 countries. Production elasticities vary by

  8. Seasonal ozone uptake by a warm-temperate mixed deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forest in western Japan estimated by the Penman–Monteith approach combined with a photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitao, Mitsutoshi; Komatsu, Masabumi; Hoshika, Yasutomo; Yazaki, Kenichi; Yoshimura, Kenichi; Fujii, Saori; Miyama, Takafumi; Kominami, Yuji

    2014-01-01

    Canopy-level stomatal conductance over a warm-temperate mixed deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forest in Japan was estimated by the Penman–Monteith approach, as compensated by a semi-empirical photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model, where photosynthesis, relative humidity, and CO 2 concentration were assumed to regulate stomatal conductance. This approach, using eddy covariance data and routine meteorological observations at a flux tower site, permits the continuous estimation of canopy-level O 3 uptake, even when the Penman–Monteith approach is unavailable (i.e. in case of direct evaporation from soil or wet leaves). Distortion was observed between the AOT40 exposure index and O 3 uptake through stomata, as AOT40 peaked in April, but with O 3 uptake occurring in July. Thus, leaf pre-maturation in the predominant deciduous broadleaf tree species (Quercus serrata) might suppress O 3 uptake in springtime, even when the highest O 3 concentrations were observed. -- Highlights: • We estimate canopy-level O 3 uptake in a warm-temperate mixed forest in Japan. • The Penman–Monteith approach is compensated by a photosynthesis-dependent model. • Stomatal conductance can be estimated, even in a partly-opened or wet canopy. • The estimated O 3 dose peaks in summer though O 3 exposure peaks in spring. -- Estimation of seasonal O 3 uptake over a mixed-temperate forest compensated by a photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model

  9. Global Warming: A Review of the Debates on the Causes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    Humans have changed the chemistry of the earth's atmosphere; most .... computer models predict that the effects of global warming will be very strong in the polar ..... to Monckton (2011) and Riebeek (2007), a natural decline in cloud cover.

  10. Form factors in the projected linear chiral sigma model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberto, P.; Coimbra Univ.; Bochum Univ.; Ruiz Arriola, E.; Fiolhais, M.; Urbano, J.N.; Coimbra Univ.; Goeke, K.; Gruemmer, F.; Bochum Univ.

    1990-01-01

    Several nucleon form factors are computed within the framework of the linear chiral soliton model. To this end variational means and projection techniques applied to generalized hedgehog quark-boson Fock states are used. In this procedure the Goldberger-Treiman relation and a virial theorem for the pion-nucleon form factor are well fulfilled demonstrating the consistency of the treatment. Both proton and neutron charge form factors are correctly reproduced, as well as the proton magnetic one. The shapes of the neutron magnetic and of the axial form factors are good but their absolute values at the origin are too large. The slopes of all the form factors at zero momentum transfer are in good agreement with the experimental data. The pion-nucleon form factor exhibits to great extent a monopole shape with a cut-off mass of Λ=690 MeV. Electromagnetic form factors for the vertex γNΔ and the nucleon spin distribution are also evaluated and discussed. (orig.)

  11. The Barrett–Crane model: asymptotic measure factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamiński, Wojciech; Steinhaus, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    The original spin foam model construction for 4D gravity by Barrett and Crane suffers from a few troubling issues. In the simple examples of the vertex amplitude they can be summarized as the existence of contributions to the asymptotics from non-geometric configurations. Even restricted to geometric contributions the amplitude is not completely worked out. While the phase is known to be the Regge action, the so-called measure factor has remained mysterious for a decade. In the toy model case of the 6j symbol this measure factor has a nice geometric interpretation of V −1/2 leading to speculations that a similar interpretation should be possible also in the 4D case. In this paper we provide the first geometric interpretation of the geometric part of the asymptotic for the spin foam consisting of two glued 4-simplices (decomposition of the 4-sphere) in the Barrett–Crane model in the large internal spin regime. (paper)

  12. The Barrett-Crane model: asymptotic measure factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamiński, Wojciech; Steinhaus, Sebastian

    2014-04-01

    The original spin foam model construction for 4D gravity by Barrett and Crane suffers from a few troubling issues. In the simple examples of the vertex amplitude they can be summarized as the existence of contributions to the asymptotics from non-geometric configurations. Even restricted to geometric contributions the amplitude is not completely worked out. While the phase is known to be the Regge action, the so-called measure factor has remained mysterious for a decade. In the toy model case of the 6j symbol this measure factor has a nice geometric interpretation of V-1/2 leading to speculations that a similar interpretation should be possible also in the 4D case. In this paper we provide the first geometric interpretation of the geometric part of the asymptotic for the spin foam consisting of two glued 4-simplices (decomposition of the 4-sphere) in the Barrett-Crane model in the large internal spin regime.

  13. Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hikspoors, Samuel

    The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

  14. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  15. A test of resuspension factor models against Chernobyl data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garger, E.K.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1995-04-01

    After the accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP), stationary air samplers were operated at Chernobyl and Baryshevka, cities which are 16 km and 150 km, respectively, from the NPP. Other air samplers were operated simultaneously, but intermittently, at locations within the 30 km zone at distances of 4-25 km from the NPP. These data were used to check the validity of time dependent models of the resuspension factor K (m -1 ). Seven different models were examined, three of which are discussed in the paper. Data from the stationary air samplers were averaged over one day or one month; dam from the intermittent air samplers were averaged over three days in 1986 and over four hours in 1991. The concentrations of eight radionuclides were measured at ten points during the same time period (14-17 September 1986). The calculated resuspension factors range from 6 x 10 -9 m -1 to 3 x 10 -6 m -1 . Data for the spatial means of K are given for certain time periods in 1986 and 1991; also presented are the calculated values according to the models. The experimental data and the calculated values differ by up to more than one order of magnitude. Also analysed was the temporal change in experimental values of K and these values were compared with model predictions. The annual means of the resuspension factor as determined experimentally and as calculated with the models are presented. The model derived from empirical data measured in Neuherberg after the Chernobyl accident agrees best with the data. The Garland model systematically gives results lower than the experimental values, and the calculated values of K from the Linsley model are consistently conservative. Also considered were the uncertainty of K due to fluctuations in air concentrations and possible biological effects of episodic exposures

  16. A test of resuspension factor models against Chernobyl data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garger, E.K. [Ukrainian Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Kiev (Ukraine). Inst. of Radioecology; Anspaugh, L.R.; Shinn, J.H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hoffman, F.O. [Senes Oak Ridge, Inc., TN (United States)

    1995-04-01

    After the accident at Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP), stationary air samplers were operated at Chernobyl and Baryshevka, cities which are 16 km and 150 km, respectively, from the NPP. Other air samplers were operated simultaneously, but intermittently, at locations within the 30 km zone at distances of 4-25 km from the NPP. These data were used to check the validity of time dependent models of the resuspension factor K (m{sup -1}). Seven different models were examined, three of which are discussed in the paper. Data from the stationary air samplers were averaged over one day or one month; dam from the intermittent air samplers were averaged over three days in 1986 and over four hours in 1991. The concentrations of eight radionuclides were measured at ten points during the same time period (14-17 September 1986). The calculated resuspension factors range from 6 x 10{sup -9} m{sup -1} to 3 x 10{sup -6} m{sup -1}. Data for the spatial means of K are given for certain time periods in 1986 and 1991; also presented are the calculated values according to the models. The experimental data and the calculated values differ by up to more than one order of magnitude. Also analysed was the temporal change in experimental values of K and these values were compared with model predictions. The annual means of the resuspension factor as determined experimentally and as calculated with the models are presented. The model derived from empirical data measured in Neuherberg after the Chernobyl accident agrees best with the data. The Garland model systematically gives results lower than the experimental values, and the calculated values of K from the Linsley model are consistently conservative. Also considered were the uncertainty of K due to fluctuations in air concentrations and possible biological effects of episodic exposures.

  17. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  18. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  19. Human Factor Modelling in the Risk Assessment of Port Manoeuvers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Abramowicz-Gerigk

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The documentation of human factor influence on the scenario development in maritime accidents compared with expert methods is commonly used as a basis in the process of setting up safety regulations and instructions. The new accidents and near misses show the necessity for further studies in determining the human factor influence on both risk acceptance criteria and development of risk control options for the manoeuvers in restricted waters. The paper presents the model of human error probability proposed for the assessment of ship masters and marine pilots' error decision and its influence on the risk of port manoeuvres.

  20. SHMF: Interest Prediction Model with Social Hub Matrix Factorization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoyuan Cui

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of social networks, microblog has become the major social communication tool. There is a lot of valuable information such as personal preference, public opinion, and marketing in microblog. Consequently, research on user interest prediction in microblog has a positive practical significance. In fact, how to extract information associated with user interest orientation from the constantly updated blog posts is not so easy. Existing prediction approaches based on probabilistic factor analysis use blog posts published by user to predict user interest. However, these methods are not very effective for the users who post less but browse more. In this paper, we propose a new prediction model, which is called SHMF, using social hub matrix factorization. SHMF constructs the interest prediction model by combining the information of blogs posts published by both user and direct neighbors in user’s social hub. Our proposed model predicts user interest by integrating user’s historical behavior and temporal factor as well as user’s friendships, thus achieving accurate forecasts of user’s future interests. The experimental results on Sina Weibo show the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed model.

  1. Modeling Factors with Influence on Sustainable University Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Dumitrascu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present the factors with influence on the sustainable university management and the relationships between them. In the scientific approach we begin from a graphical model, according to which the extracurricular activities together with internal environmental factors influence students’ involvement in such activities, the university attractiveness, their academic performance and their integration into the socially-economic and natural environment (components related with sustainable development. The model emphasizes that individual performances, related to students’ participation in extracurricular activities, have a positive influence on the sustainability of university management. The results of the study have shown that the university sustainability may be influenced by a number of factors, such as students’ performance, students’ involvement in extracurricular activities or university’s attractiveness and can in turn influence implicitly also the sustainability of university management. The originality of the paper consists in the relationships study using the modeling method in general and informatics tools of modeling in particular, as well as through graphical visualization of some influences, on the sustainability university management.

  2. On the recent warming in the subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy over South Asian Monsoon region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Gupta, A.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.

    2017-12-01

    In order to explain monsoon circulation, surface temperature gradients described as most traditional concept. However, it cannot explain certain important aspects of monsoon circulation. Later, convective quasi-equilibrium framework and vertically integrated atmospheric energy budget has become recognized theories to explain the monsoon circulation. In this article, same theories were analyzed and observed for the duration 1979-2010 over south Asian summer monsoon region. With the help of NCEP-R2, NOAA 20th Century, and Era-Interim reanalysis an important feature was noticed pertained to subcloud layer entropy and vertical moist static energy. In the last 32 years, subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy has shown significant seasonal warming all over the region with peak over the poleward flank of the cross-equatorial cell. The important reason related to the warming was found to be increase in surface enthalpy fluxes. Instead, other dynamical contributions pertained to the warming was also observed. Increase in positive anomalies of vertical advection of moist static energy over northern Bay of Bengal, Central India, Peninsular India, Eastern Arabian Sea, and Equatorial Indian Ocean was found to be an important dynamic factor contributing for warming of vertically integrated moist static energy. Along with it vertical moist stability has also supported the argument. Similar interpretations were perceived in the AMIP simulation of CCSM4 model. Further modeling experiments on this warming will be helpful to know the exact mechanism behind it.

  3. Condensation in models with factorized and pair-factorized stationary states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, M R; Waclaw, B

    2015-01-01

    Non-equilibrium real-space condensation is a phenomenon in which a finite fraction of some conserved quantity (mass, particles, etc) becomes spatially localized. We review two popular stochastic models of hopping particles that lead to condensation and whose stationary states assume a factorized form: the zero-range process and the misanthrope process, and their various generalizations. We also introduce a new model—a misanthrope process with parallel dynamics—that exhibits condensation and has a pair-factorized stationary state

  4. The Factors of Forming the National HR-Management Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena P. Kostenko

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available There are some factors considered in this article, which influence the forming of national HR-management model. The group-forming criterion is the nature of factors, that determine the system of HR-management as a system of corporate culture values, norms and rules of organizational behavior, ways of realization some important managing functions and dominating approaches to make decisions. This article shows that the plurality of combinations in different factors leads to forming the unique HR-management model. The geoclimatic factor influences the principles of the labor organization (orientation primarily on individual or collective forms of labor, attitude to the management experience of other countries, attitude to resources, etc., the distribution of labor resources, the level of labor mobility, and the psychosocial type of employee. Models of man's labor behavior are constituted In the process of historical development. Attention is focused on the formation of a national HR-model, such as the conducted socio-economic policy, the characteristics of the institutional environment, economic goals and priorities of the country's development, the level of development and the nature of the national productive forces and economic structures. Much attention was paid to the analysis of the historically formed value system and labor traditions, which influence the approaches to HR-management. As far as religion influences the model of person’s inclusion in labor, motives of labor behavior, management culture of a certain employee, preferred payment etc., we examined how the main traditional religions (Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Confucianism, Hinduism influence the HR-management system in different countries.

  5. Factors affecting strategic plan implementation using interpretive structural modeling (ISM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadori, Mohammadkarim; Teymourzadeh, Ehsan; Tajik, Hamidreza; Ravangard, Ramin; Raadabadi, Mehdi; Hosseini, Seyed Mojtaba

    2018-06-11

    Purpose Strategic planning is the best tool for managers seeking an informed presence and participation in the market without surrendering to changes. Strategic planning enables managers to achieve their organizational goals and objectives. Hospital goals, such as improving service quality and increasing patient satisfaction cannot be achieved if agreed strategies are not implemented. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting strategic plan implementation in one teaching hospital using interpretive structural modeling (ISM). Design/methodology/approach The authors used a descriptive study involving experts and senior managers; 16 were selected as the study sample using a purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed and prepared based on previous studies. Data were analyzed using ISM. Findings Five main factors affected strategic plan implementation. Although all five variables and factors are top level, "senior manager awareness and participation in the strategic planning process" and "creating and maintaining team participation in the strategic planning process" had maximum drive power. "Organizational structure effects on the strategic planning process" and "Organizational culture effects on the strategic planning process" had maximum dependence power. Practical implications Identifying factors affecting strategic plan implementation is a basis for healthcare quality improvement by analyzing the relationship among factors and overcoming the barriers. Originality/value The authors used ISM to analyze the relationship between factors affecting strategic plan implementation.

  6. Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

    2010-11-01

    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

  7. Responses of microbial biomass carbon and nitrogen to experimental warming: a meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, W.; Yuan, W.

    2017-12-01

    Soil microbes play important roles in regulating terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling and strongly influence feedbacks of ecosystem to global warming. However, the inconsistent responses of microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN) to experimental warming have been observed, and the response on ratio between MBC and MBN (MBC:MBN) has not been identified. This meta-analysis synthesized the warming experiments at 58 sites globally to investigate the responses of MBC:MBN to climate warming. Our results showed that warming significantly increased MBC by 3.61 ± 0.80% and MBN by 5.85 ± 0.90% and thus decreased the MBC:MBN by 3.34 ± 0.66%. MBC showed positive responses to warming but MBN exhibited negative responses to warming at low warming magnitude (2°C) the results were inverted. The different effects of warming magnitude on microbial biomass resulted from the warming-induced decline in soil moisture and substrate supply. Moreover, MBC and MBN had strong positive responses to warming at the mid-term (3-4 years) or short-term (1-2 years) duration, but the responses tended to decrease at long-term (≥ 5 years) warming duration. This study fills the knowledge gap on the responses of MBC:MBN to warming and may benefit the development of coupled carbon and nitrogen models.

  8. Implementation of warm-cloud processes in a source-oriented WRF/Chem model to study the effect of aerosol mixing state on fog formation in the Central Valley of California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.-H. Lee

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The source-oriented Weather Research and Forecasting chemistry model (SOWC was modified to include warm cloud processes and was applied to investigate how aerosol mixing states influence fog formation and optical properties in the atmosphere. SOWC tracks a 6-D chemical variable (X, Z, Y, size bins, source types, species through an explicit simulation of atmospheric chemistry and physics. A source-oriented cloud condensation nuclei module was implemented into the SOWC model to simulate warm clouds using the modified two-moment Purdue Lin microphysics scheme. The Goddard shortwave and long-wave radiation schemes were modified to interact with source-oriented aerosols and cloud droplets so that aerosol direct and indirect effects could be studied. The enhanced SOWC model was applied to study a fog event that occurred on 17 January 2011, in the Central Valley of California. Tule fog occurred because an atmospheric river effectively advected high moisture into the Central Valley and nighttime drainage flow brought cold air from mountains into the valley. The SOWC model produced reasonable liquid water path, spatial distribution and duration of fog events. The inclusion of aerosol–radiation interaction only slightly modified simulation results since cloud optical thickness dominated the radiation budget in fog events. The source-oriented mixture representation of particles reduced cloud droplet number relative to the internal mixture approach that artificially coats hydrophobic particles with hygroscopic components. The fraction of aerosols activating into cloud condensation nuclei (CCN at a supersaturation of 0.5 % in the Central Valley decreased from 94 % in the internal mixture model to 80 % in the source-oriented model. This increased surface energy flux by 3–5 W m−2 and surface temperature by as much as 0.25 K in the daytime.

  9. Finite-lattice form factors in free-fermion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iorgov, N; Lisovyy, O

    2011-01-01

    We consider the general Z 2 -symmetric free-fermion model on the finite periodic lattice, which includes as special cases the Ising model on the square and triangular lattices and the Z n -symmetric BBS τ (2) -model with n = 2. Translating Kaufman's fermionic approach to diagonalization of Ising-like transfer matrices into the language of Grassmann integrals, we determine the transfer matrix eigenvectors and observe that they coincide with the eigenvectors of a square lattice Ising transfer matrix. This allows us to find exact finite-lattice form factors of spin operators for the statistical model and the associated finite-length quantum chains, of which the most general is equivalent to the XY chain in a transverse field

  10. Object recognition in images via a factor graph model

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yong; Wang, Long; Wu, Zhaolin; Zhang, Haisu

    2018-04-01

    Object recognition in images suffered from huge search space and uncertain object profile. Recently, the Bag-of- Words methods are utilized to solve these problems, especially the 2-dimension CRF(Conditional Random Field) model. In this paper we suggest the method based on a general and flexible fact graph model, which can catch the long-range correlation in Bag-of-Words by constructing a network learning framework contrasted from lattice in CRF. Furthermore, we explore a parameter learning algorithm based on the gradient descent and Loopy Sum-Product algorithms for the factor graph model. Experimental results on Graz 02 dataset show that, the recognition performance of our method in precision and recall is better than a state-of-art method and the original CRF model, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. Proposition Factor Model of World Class Manufacturing in Brazilian Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Sergio Gonçalves de Oliveira

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper aims to develop a model of World Class Manufacturing, to achieve this goal was elaborated a questionnaire with 35 assertive divided in 7 areas suggested by literature review. This questionnaire was send to manufacture specialists, product developers and technician through LinkedIn the participants was select by researchers in discussion groups taking in consideration their experience using the professional profile. About 1000 invite was send to professional from metal-mechanic sector which returned 180 valid questionnaires. The data was analyzed through factor analyses and was obtained 7 constructs, which explained 67% of data variance. The KMO was 0,84, which is considered good for, analyzes purpose. The seventh factor was eliminated because it Cranach’s Alpha was below 0,6 and the remained factor was nominated as: Lean Manufacturing, Human Resources Management to achieve flexibility, Marketing Integration, Costs Reduction and Flexibility.

  12. Baryon octet electromagnetic form factors in a confining NJL model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel E. Carrillo-Serrano

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Electromagnetic form factors of the baryon octet are studied using a Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model which utilizes the proper-time regularization scheme to simulate aspects of colour confinement. In addition, the model also incorporates corrections to the dressed quarks from vector meson correlations in the t-channel and the pion cloud. Comparison with recent chiral extrapolations of lattice QCD results shows a remarkable level of consistency. For the charge radii we find the surprising result that rEp

  13. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  14. The animal model determines the results of Aeromonas virulence factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Romero

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The selection of an experimental animal model is of great importance in the study of bacterial virulence factors. Here, a bath infection of zebrafish larvae is proposed as an alternative model to study the virulence factors of A. hydrophila. Intraperitoneal infections in mice and trout were compared with bath infections in zebrafish larvae using specific mutants. The great advantage of this model is that bath immersion mimics the natural route of infection, and injury to the tail also provides a natural portal of entry for the bacteria. The implication of T3SS in the virulence of A. hydrophila was analysed using the AH-1::aopB mutant. This mutant was less virulent than the wild-type strain when inoculated into zebrafish larvae, as described in other vertebrates. However, the zebrafish model exhibited slight differences in mortality kinetics only observed using invertebrate models. Infections using the mutant AH-1∆vapA lacking the gene coding for the surface S-layer suggested that this protein was not totally necessary to the bacteria once it was inside the host, but it contributed to the inflammatory response. Only when healthy zebrafish larvae were infected did the mutant produce less mortality than the wild type. Variations between models were evidenced using the AH-1∆rmlB, which lacks the O-antigen lipopolysaccharide (LPS, and the AH-1∆wahD, which lacks the O-antigen LPS and part of the LPS outer-core. Both mutants showed decreased mortality in all of the animal models, but the differences between them were only observed in injured zebrafish larvae, suggesting that residues from the LPS outer core must be important for virulence. The greatest differences were observed using the AH-1ΔFlaB-J (lacking polar flagella and unable to swim and the AH-1::motX (non-motile but producing flagella. They were as pathogenic as the wild-type strain when injected into mice and trout, but no mortalities were registered in zebrafish larvae. This study

  15. Greenhouse science; Global warming: the origin and nature of alleged scientific consensus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindzen, R. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA (USA))

    1992-01-01

    The paper contends that there is not a scientific consensus on the existence of global warming. The scientific issues associated with the prediction of global warming are reviewed and it is concluded that there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in greenhouse gases such as CO[sub 2], methane and chlorofluorocarbons. The history of the current concern over global warming is described. Political aspects, scientists' concerns over funding and the desire of industrial companies to improve their public image by supporting environmental activists are some of the factors seen as responsible for the current global warming 'hysteria'. 6 figs.

  16. Parallelized preconditioned model building algorithm for matrix factorization

    OpenAIRE

    Kaya, Kamer; Birbil, İlker; Birbil, Ilker; Öztürk, Mehmet Kaan; Ozturk, Mehmet Kaan; Gohari, Amir

    2017-01-01

    Matrix factorization is a common task underlying several machine learning applications such as recommender systems, topic modeling, or compressed sensing. Given a large and possibly sparse matrix A, we seek two smaller matrices W and H such that their product is as close to A as possible. The objective is minimizing the sum of square errors in the approximation. Typically such problems involve hundreds of thousands of unknowns, so an optimizer must be exceptionally efficient. In this study, a...

  17. Fewer bacteria in warm water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagh, Lene

    1999-01-01

    There has been many suggestions to how the ideal warm water system should be. Particularly whether warm water containers or heat exchangers in larger houses are the best solutions in order to maintain a water quality with low levels of bacteria. In an investigation made by Statens Byggeforskningsinstitutt (Denmark) regarding ''Bacterial growth in warm water installations with heat exchangers'' there were used several heat exchangers made by Gjelsted and Lund of three of which had HWAT heating cables. The bacterial content was low from these exchangers compared to exchangers with circulation. The article presents promising results from a study where the method was investigated over a longer period in two new larger warm water systems. Some energy conservation aspects are discussed

  18. Warm mix asphalt : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The performance of pavements constructed using warm mix asphalt (WMA) technology were : compared to the performance of conventional hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavements placed on the : same project. Measurements of friction resistance, rutting/wear, ride ...

  19. Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1988-09-01

    Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

  20. Global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    The problems of pollution, global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation, and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy, pollution and global warming crisis. (author)

  1. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  2. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...

  3. INNOVATIVE PRACTICES IN TOURISM. APOSSIBLE MODEL BY FOSTERING SHADOW FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ada Mirela TOMESCU

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper is the result of an empirical research, a study that includes a theoretical framework. The data used to test our hypotheses come from 60 small tourism firms from Bihor County, Romania. The research conducted has revealed that actions focusing on innovation must be based on a solid analysis, supported by the knowledge and the understanding of the contextual factors (environment, culture as a mental programming, values also based on the organizational factors (the management commitment, systemic perspective, learning and practice of experimentation, rapid transfer of knowledge within the organization. For the purpose of this work, the contextual factors that are exogenous represent the shadow factors. The studies performed in three European projects implemented in tourism SMEs of Bihor County have allowed us to advance the idea that contextual and organizational factors, that are identified as the source of innovation are based on rationality, which is enlarged by affectivity and imagination. The identified correlations may be considered, in our opinion an element of novelty and originality. Finally, the purpose of this paper is to provide a possible model, based on the idea of building an innovative firm, the one that has learned how to determine their own employees to be innovative. O03, L2, L26

  4. Enhanced Global Monsoon in Present Warm Period Due to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate global monsoon precipitation (GMP changes between the Present Warm Period (PWP, 1900–2000 and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1250–1850 by performing millennium sensitivity simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1. Three millennium simulations are carried out under time-varying solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas (GHG forcing, respectively, from 501 to 2000 AD. Compared to the global-mean surface temperature of the cold LIA, the global warming in the PWP caused by high GHG concentration is about 0.42 °C, by strong solar radiation is 0.14 °C, and by decreased volcanic activity is 0.07 °C. The GMP increases in these three types of global warming are comparable, being 0.12, 0.058, and 0.055 mm day−1, respectively. For one degree of global warming, the GMP increase induced by strong GHG forcing is 2.2% °C−1, by strong solar radiation is 2.8% °C−1, and by decreased volcanic forcing is 5.5% °C−1, which means that volcanic forcing is most effective in terms of changing the GMP among these three external forcing factors. Under volcanic inactivity-related global warming, both monsoon moisture and circulation are enhanced, and the enhanced circulation mainly occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH. The circulation, however, is weakened in the other two cases, and the GMP intensification is mainly caused by increased moisture. Due to large NH volcanic aerosol concentration in the LIA, the inter-hemispheric thermal contrast of PWP global warming tends to enhance NH monsoon circulation. Compared to the GHG forcing, solar radiation tends to warm low-latitude regions and cause a greater monsoon moisture increase, resulting in a stronger GMP increase. The finding in this study is important for predicting the GMP in future anthropogenic global warming when a change in natural solar or volcanic activity occurs.

  5. Change management in Iranian hospitals: social factors model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Delgoshaei

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Continuous change in the complex health care environments is a major challenge for administrative managers. This study aimed to design a change model to facilitate change implementation in the Iranian hospitals. Methods: This is a descriptive and comparative study. The data were collected through library search and in-depth interview with 15 hospital managers. Nine well-established change theories developed by Lewin, Action Research, Kotter, Ackerman- Anderson and Anderson, Prosci , Kilman, Beer, Continuum, and Gelicher were compared. Common denominators of the theories were identified and tabulated. Experienced hospital managers’ suggestions about social factors were acquired. The initial model was designed and validated using the Delphi Technique. Results: The majority of the selected change models emphasize the significance of social factors in change implementation such as effective communication, organizational climate and culture, and leadership. The results from the interviews indicate that low readiness to change, lack of confidence (or trust for change, and autocratic leadership style ,and poor communication could hinder the change process. Conclusion: Based on the model developed in the study, effective communication, readiness of employees, and a contingency leadership/management combined could lead to successful implementation of change in the hospital.

  6. Modeling soft factors in computer-based wargames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Steven M.; Ross, David O.; Vinarskai, Jonathan S.; Farr, Steven D.

    2002-07-01

    Computer-based wargames have seen much improvement in recent years due to rapid increases in computing power. Because these games have been developed for the entertainment industry, most of these advances have centered on the graphics, sound, and user interfaces integrated into these wargames with less attention paid to the game's fidelity. However, for a wargame to be useful to the military, it must closely approximate as many of the elements of war as possible. Among the elements that are typically not modeled or are poorly modeled in nearly all military computer-based wargames are systematic effects, command and control, intelligence, morale, training, and other human and political factors. These aspects of war, with the possible exception of systematic effects, are individually modeled quite well in many board-based commercial wargames. The work described in this paper focuses on incorporating these elements from the board-based games into a computer-based wargame. This paper will also address the modeling and simulation of the systemic paralysis of an adversary that is implied by the concept of Effects Based Operations (EBO). Combining the fidelity of current commercial board wargames with the speed, ease of use, and advanced visualization of the computer can significantly improve the effectiveness of military decision making and education. Once in place, the process of converting board wargames concepts to computer wargames will allow the infusion of soft factors into military training and planning.

  7. Clinical application of the five-factor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widiger, Thomas A; Presnall, Jennifer Ruth

    2013-12-01

    The Five-Factor Model (FFM) has become the predominant dimensional model of general personality structure. The purpose of this paper is to suggest a clinical application. A substantial body of research indicates that the personality disorders included within the American Psychiatric Association's (APA) Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) can be understood as extreme and/or maladaptive variants of the FFM (the acronym "DSM" refers to any particular edition of the APA DSM). In addition, the current proposal for the forthcoming fifth edition of the DSM (i.e., DSM-5) is shifting closely toward an FFM dimensional trait model of personality disorder. Advantages of this shifting conceptualization are discussed, including treatment planning. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  9. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  10. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-01-01

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east–west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific’s could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. PMID:23112174

  11. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-11-13

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  12. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  13. Modeling of human factor Va inactivation by activated protein C<