WorldWideScience

Sample records for warmer climate growth

  1. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  2. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Jones

    Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  3. Winter ENSO teleconnections in a warmer climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herceg Bulic, Ivana [Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical Institute, Department of Geophysics, Zagreb (Croatia); Brankovic, Cedo [Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb (Croatia); Kucharski, Fred [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    Changes in the winter atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warmer climate conditions are estimated from the two 20-member ensembles made by an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Warmer climate is simulated by a modification in the radiation parameterisation that corresponds to the doubled CO{sub 2} concentration, and SST forcing is represented by the same SST anomalies as in current climate (1855-2002) experiment superimposed on the climatological SST that was obtained from a complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation model forced with the doubled CO{sub 2}. SST anomalies in the Nino3.4 region, categorised into five classes, enabled a composite analysis of changes in the Northern Hemisphere tropical/extratropical teleconnections. The main features of the tropical-extratropical teleconnections are maintained in both experiments; for example, irrespective of the sign of SST anomalies, the amplitude of the atmospheric response is positively correlated with the intensity of ENSO event and the El Nino impact is stronger than that of La Nina of the same intensity. The strongest extratropical signal in the warmer climate, particularly significant for strong warm events, is found over the Pacific/North American region; however, this extratropical teleconnections is reduced in a warmer climate relative to the current climate. Over the North Atlantic/European region, a detectable signal linked to ENSO is found; this model response is significantly strengthened in the experiment with the doubled CO{sub 2} concentration. Such an atmospheric response in a warmer climate is found to be associated with changes in the mean state followed as well as in the jet waveguiding effect and stationary wave activity. (orig.)

  4. Terrestrial ecosystems under warmer and drier climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Future warmer and drier climates will likely affect many of the world's terrestrial ecosystems. These changes will fundamentally reshape terrestrial systems through their components and across organization levels. However, it is unclear to what extent terrestrial ecosystems would be resilient enough to stay put to increased temperature and water stress by only adjusting carbon fluxes and water balances? And to what extent it would reach the thresholds at which terrestrial ecosystems were forced to alter species compositions and ecosystem structures for adapting to newer climates? The energy balance of terrestrial ecosystems link thermal and water conditions to defines terrestrial carbon processes and feedbacks to climate, which will inevitably change under warmer and drier climates. Recent theoretical studies provide a new framework, suggesting that terrestrial ecosystems were capable of balancing costs of carbon gain and water transport to achieve optimums for functioning and distribution. Such a paradigm is critical for understanding the dynamics of future terrestrial ecosystems under climate changes, and facilitate modeling terrestrial ecosystems which needs generalized principles for formulating ecosystem behaviors. This study aims to review some recent studies that explore responses of terrestrial ecosystems to rather novel climate conditions, such as heat-induced droughts, intending to provide better comprehension of complex carbon-water interactions through plants to an ecosystem, and relevant factors that may alleviate or worsen already deteriorated climates such as elevated CO2 and soil conditions.

  5. Enhanced growth of Juniperus thurifera under a warmer climate is explained by a positive carbon gain under cold and drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimeno, Teresa E; Camarero, J Julio; Granda, Elena; Pías, Beatriz; Valladares, Fernando

    2012-03-01

    Juniperus thurifera L. is an endemic conifer of the western Mediterranean Basin where it is subjected to a severe climatic stress characterized by low winter temperatures and summer drought. Given the trend of increased warming-induced drought stress in this area and the climatic sensitivity of this species, we expect a negative impact of climate change on growth and ecophysiological performance of J. thurifera in the harsh environments where it dominates. To evaluate this, we measured long- and short-term radial growth using dendrochronology, photosynthesis and water-use efficiency in males, females and juveniles in three sites in Central Spain. Climate was monitored and completed with historical records. Mean annual temperature has increased +0.2 °C per decade in the study area, and the main warming trends corresponded to spring (+0.2 °C per decade) and summer (+0.3 °C per decade). Radial growth and maximum photosynthesis peaked in spring and autumn. Positive photosynthetic rates were maintained all year long, albeit at reduced rates in winter and summer. Radial growth was enhanced by wet conditions in the previous autumn and by warm springs and high precipitation in summer of the year of tree-ring formation. Cloud cover during the summer increased growth, while cloudy winters led to impaired carbon gain and reduced growth in the long term. We argue that maintenance of carbon gain under harsh conditions (low winter temperatures and dry summer months) and plastic xylogenesis underlie J. thurifera's ability to profit from changing climatic conditions such as earlier spring onset and erratic summer rainfall. Our results highlight that not only the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of climate change on growth and persistence of Mediterranean trees is species specific.

  6. Climate change and river temperature sensitivity to warmer nighttime vs. warmer daytime air temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diabat, M.; Haggerty, R.; Wondzell, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    , and only the lower 2 rkm warmed by at least 1.1 °C with the warmer night case. The greatest increases in the daily mean temperature occurred under the daytime case. The greatest increase in the daily maxima occurred under the nighttime case. However, equivalent increases in daily minima were found under all cases. The findings emphasize the effect of timing of atmospheric warming on river temperature. In particular, a nighttime increase in air temperature increases river temperature more than an equivalent daytime increase in air temperature. This happens because the heat budget of a river at nighttime is dominated by differences in air and river temperatures, whereas the heat budget of a river in the day time is dominated by incoming shortwave radiation which is not projected to change significantly under a warmer climate.

  7. Model biases in rice phenology under warmer climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianyi; Li, Tao; Yang, Xiaoguang; Simelton, Elisabeth

    2016-06-07

    Climate-induced crop yields model projections are constrained by the accuracy of the phenology simulation in crop models. Here, we use phenology observations from 775 trials with 19 rice cultivars in 5 Asian countries to compare the performance of four rice phenology models (growing-degree-day (GDD), exponential, beta and bilinear models) when applied to warmer climates. For a given cultivar, the difference in growing season temperature (GST) varied between 2.2 and 8.2 °C in different trials, which allowed us to calibrate the models for lower GST and validate under higher GST, with three calibration experiments. The results show that in warmer climates the bilinear and beta phenology models resulted in gradually increasing bias for phenology predication and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology simulation bias, while the GDD and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias. The phenology biases were primarily attributed to varying phenological patterns to temperature in models, rather than on the size of the calibration dataset. Additionally, results suggest that model simulations based on multiple cultivars provide better predictability than using one cultivar. Therefore, to accurately capture climate change impacts on rice phenology, we recommend simulations based on multiple cultivars using the GDD and exponential phenology models.

  8. Model biases in rice phenology under warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianyi; Li, Tao; Yang, Xiaoguang; Simelton, Elisabeth

    2016-06-01

    Climate-induced crop yields model projections are constrained by the accuracy of the phenology simulation in crop models. Here, we use phenology observations from 775 trials with 19 rice cultivars in 5 Asian countries to compare the performance of four rice phenology models (growing-degree-day (GDD), exponential, beta and bilinear models) when applied to warmer climates. For a given cultivar, the difference in growing season temperature (GST) varied between 2.2 and 8.2 °C in different trials, which allowed us to calibrate the models for lower GST and validate under higher GST, with three calibration experiments. The results show that in warmer climates the bilinear and beta phenology models resulted in gradually increasing bias for phenology predication and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology simulation bias, while the GDD and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias. The phenology biases were primarily attributed to varying phenological patterns to temperature in models, rather than on the size of the calibration dataset. Additionally, results suggest that model simulations based on multiple cultivars provide better predictability than using one cultivar. Therefore, to accurately capture climate change impacts on rice phenology, we recommend simulations based on multiple cultivars using the GDD and exponential phenology models.

  9. Wildlife as reservoirs for vector borne diseases in a warmer Scandinavian climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene; Kristensen, Birgit

    The distribution of vector borne diseases is highly determined by environmental and climatic parameters. As the climate becomes warmer the potential for spread of exotic vector borne diseases may therefore increase in the Nordic countries. But this does not mean that all new outbreaks of diseases...

  10. Teleconnections in a warmer climate: the pliocene perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shukla, Sonali P. [Columbia University, Deptartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Chandler, Mark A.; Sohl, Linda E.; Jonas, Jeff; Lerner, Jean [Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY (United States); Rind, David [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)

    2011-11-15

    Migrations toward altered sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Indo-Pacific region are present in the recent observational record and in future global warming projections. These SSTs are in the form of ''permanent'' El Nino-like (herein termed ''El Padre'') and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)-like patterns. The Early Pliocene Warm Period, which bears similarity to future warming projections, may have also exhibited these Indo-Pacific SST patterns, as suggested by regional terrestrial paleo-climatic data and general circulation model studies. The ability to corroborate this assessment with paleo-data reconstructions is an advantage of the warm Pliocene period that is not afforded by future warming scenarios. Thus, the Pliocene period provides us with a warm-climate perspective and test bed for understanding potential changes to future atmospheric interactions given these altered SST states. This study specifically assesses how atmospheric teleconnections from El Padre/IOD SST patterns are generated and propagate to create the regional climate signals of the Pliocene period, as these signals may be representative of future regional climatic changes as well. To do this, we construct a holistic diagnostic rubric that allows us to examine atmospheric teleconnections, both energetically and dynamically, as produced by a general circulation model. We incorporate KE', a diagnostic adapted from the eddy kinetic energy generation field, to assess the available energy transferred to these teleconnections. Using this methodology, we found that relative to our Modern Control experiments, weaker atmospheric teleconnections prevail under warm Pliocene conditions, although pathways of propagation still appear directed toward the southwestern United States from our tropical Pacific sector forcing. Propagation directly emanating from the Indian Ocean forcing sector appears to be largely blocked, although indirect teleconnective

  11. Biases in simulation of the rice phenology models when applied in warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, T.; Li, T.; Yang, X.; Simelton, E.

    2015-12-01

    The current model inter-comparison studies highlight the difference in projections between crop models when they are applied to warmer climates, but these studies do not provide results on how the accuracy of the models would change in these projections because the adequate observations under largely diverse growing season temperature (GST) are often unavailable. Here, we investigate the potential changes in the accuracy of rice phenology models when these models were applied to a significantly warmer climate. We collected phenology data from 775 trials with 19 cultivars in 5 Asian countries (China, India, Philippines, Bangladesh and Thailand). Each cultivar encompasses the phenology observations under diverse GST regimes. For a given rice cultivar in different trials, the GST difference reaches 2.2 to 8.2°C, which allows us to calibrate the models under lower GST and validate under higher GST (i.e., warmer climates). Four common phenology models representing major algorithms on simulations of rice phenology, and three model calibration experiments were conducted. The results suggest that the bilinear and beta models resulted in gradually increasing phenology bias (Figure) and double yield bias per percent increase in phenology bias, whereas the growing-degree-day (GDD) and exponential models maintained a comparatively constant bias when applied in warmer climates (Figure). Moreover, the bias of phenology estimated by the bilinear and beta models did not reduce with increase in GST when all data were used to calibrate models. These suggest that variations in phenology bias are primarily attributed to intrinsic properties of the respective phenology model rather than on the calibration dataset. Therefore we conclude that using the GDD and exponential models has more chances of predicting rice phenology correctly and thus, production under warmer climates, and result in effective agricultural strategic adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

  12. Reproductive trade-offs may moderate the impact of Gyrodactylus salaris in warmer climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott J Denholm

    Full Text Available Gyrodactylus salaris is a notifiable freshwater ectoparasite of salmonids. Its primary host is Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar, upon which infections can cause death, and have led to massive declines in salmon numbers in Norway, where the parasite is widespread. Different strains of S. salar vary in their susceptibility, with Atlantic strains (such as those found in Norway exhibiting no resistance to the parasite, and Baltic strains demonstrating an innate resistance sufficient to regulate parasite numbers on the host causing it to either die out or persist at a low level. In this study, Leslie matrix and compartmental models were used to generate data that demonstrated the population growth of G. salaris on an individual host is dependent on the total number of offspring per parasite, its longevity and the timing of its births. The data demonstrated that the key factor determining the rate of G. salaris population growth is the time at which the parasite first gives birth, with rapid birth rate giving rise to large population size. Furthermore, it was shown that though the parasite can give birth up to four times, only two births are required for the population to persist as long as the first birth occurs before a parasite is three days old. As temperature is known to influence the timing of the parasite's first birth, greater impact may be predicted if introduced to countries with warmer climates than Norway, such as the UK and Ireland which are currently recognised to be free of G. salaris. However, the outputs from the models developed in this study suggest that temperature induced trade-offs between the total number of offspring the parasite gives birth to and the first birth timing may prevent increased population growth rates over those observed in Norway.

  13. WARMER URBAN CLIMATES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN SPACES IN NORTHERN SIBERIAN CITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor Esau

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern human societies have accumulated considerable power to modify their environment and the earth’s system climate as the whole. The most significant environmental changes are found in the urbanized areas. This study considers coherent changes in vegetation productivity and land surface temperature (LST around four northern West Siberian cities, namely, Tazovsky, Nadym, Noyabrsk and Megion. These cities are located in tundra, forest-tundra, northern taiga and middle taiga bioclimatic zones correspondingly. Our analysis of 15 years (2000–2014 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS data revealed significantly (1.3 °C to 5.2 °C warmer seasonally averaged LST within the urbanized territories than those of the surrounding landscapes. The magnitude of the urban LST anomaly corresponds to climates found 300–600 km to the South. In the climate change perspective, this magnitude corresponds to the expected regional warming by the middle or the end of the 21st century. Warmer urban climates, and specifically warmer upper soil layers, can support re-vegetation of the disturbed urban landscapes with more productive trees and tall shrubs. This afforestation is welcome by the migrant city population as it is more consistent with their traditional ecological knowledge. Survival of atypical, southern plant species encourages a number of initiatives and investment to introduce even broader spectrum of temperate blossoming trees and shrubs in urban landscapes. The unintended changes of the urban micro-climates in combination with knowledgeable urban planning could transform the Siberian pioneer settlements into places of belonging.

  14. Continuous rainfall generation for a warmer climate using observed temperature sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-01-01

    Continuous rainfall sequences are often used as inputs in hydrologic modeling, particularly where a probabilistic assessment is required. Continuous rainfall sequences provide a means for accounting of all aspects of rainfall that produce flooding, for example, not just the design rainfall event but also the rainfall prior to the extreme rainfall event. With the advent of climate change, higher temperatures have been associated with changes in rainfall, in particular intensifying rainfall extremes with less uniform temporal patterns. Given these demonstrated changes to extreme rainfall with temperature rise, there is a need to modify continuous rainfall generators to account for current and likely future changes in temperature. In this work we propose a novel method for simulating continuous rainfall sequences for a future warmer climate by conditioning parameters on their historical sensitivity with temperature. To demonstrate the proposed technique we use a one-dimensional Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model at two locations across Australia. The statistics used in the parameter estimation are conditioned on their historical sensitivity to average monthly temperature to simulate rainfall for a change in temperature. The results are validated by comparing the simulated rainfall against observations originating from differing temperatures and it is shown that the model captures the relative difference in the mean monthly rainfall and monthly maxima. Encouraged by these results we simulate rainfall for higher temperatures and capture expected changes to annual maxima and design temporal patterns for a warmer climate. While we demonstrate our methodology in the simulation of sub-daily rainfall using a specific model, the approach presented here can be applied to all weather generation schemes for projection in a warmer climate.

  15. Impacts of Vertical Structure of Convection on Tropical Circulation in a Warmer Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. A.; Chou, C.

    2014-12-01

    The atmosphere becomes warmer and more humid under global warming, while changes in precipitation show a large discrepancy on a regional scale. Changes in regional precipitation are usually associated with changes in tropical circulation. Stronger (weaker) upward motion enhances (reduces) precipitation amount and intensity, in addition to the effect of enhanced water vapor. In a more detailed analysis, however, changes in atmospheric vertical motion can be either strengthened or weakened, even within convective areas with positive rainfall anomalies. To understand the diverse responses of changes in tropical circulation in a warmer climate as well as the associated mechanism, atmospheric stability and the impact of the vertical structure of convection on tropical circulation are investigated in 32 coupled global climate models from CMIP3 and CMIP5. The study regions are convective areas with positive precipitation anomalies. Under global warming, an upward shift structure of vertical velocity is observed in all model simulations, which implies a deepening of convection and a more stable atmosphere. Areas with enhanced (weakened) ascending motion, the climatological bottom-heavy (top-heavy) structure of vertical velocity tends to import more (less) moist static energy to counteract the stabilization due to the effect of deepened convection, and then the ascending motion is strengthened (weakened). The bottom-heavy-like structure is dominated by shallow convection, while the top-heavy-like structure is usually associated with deep convection. In other words, shallow convection tends to strengthen tropical circulation and enhance upward motion in future climate.

  16. Subtropical Low Cloud Response to a Warmer Climate in an Superparameterized Climate Model: Part I. Regime Sorting and Physical Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter N Blossey

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The subtropical low cloud response to a climate with SST uniformly warmed by 2 K is analyzed in the SP- CAM superparameterized climate model, in which each grid column is replaced by a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model (CRM. Intriguingly, SP-CAM shows substantial low cloud increases over the subtropical oceans in the warmer climate. The paper aims to understand the mechanism for these increases. The subtropical low cloud increase is analyzed by sorting grid-column months of the climate model into composite cloud regimes using percentile ranges of lower tropospheric stability (LTS. LTS is observed to be well correlated to subtropical low cloud amount and boundary layer vertical structure. The low cloud increase in SP-CAM is attributed to boundary-layer destabilization due to increased clear-sky radiative cooling in the warmer climate. This drives more shallow cumulus convection and a moister boundary layer, inducing cloud increases and further increasing the radiative cooling. The boundary layer depth does not change substantially, due to compensation between increased radiative cooling (which promotes more turbulent mixing and boundary-layer deepening and slight strengthening of the boundary-layer top inversion (which inhibits turbulent entrainment and promotes a shallower boundary layer. The widespread changes in low clouds do not appear to be driven by changes in mean subsidence.
    In a companion paper we use column-mode CRM simulations based on LTS-composite profiles to further study the low cloud response mechanisms and to explore the sensitivity of low cloud response to grid resolution in SP-CAM.

  17. Intense precipitation extremes in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    scoccimarro, enrico; gualdi, silvio; bellucci, alessio; zampieri, matteo; navarra, antonio

    2013-04-01

    In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the epoch difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the intensity associated with extreme precipitation events, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed extreme precipitation intensity, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the intensity of the extreme precipitations, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and the southern Africa during boreal winter. These changes are consistent with a strong increase of the column integrated water content availability over the afore mentioned regions.

  18. Effects of warmer and drier climate conditions on plant composition and biomass production in a Mediterranean shrubland community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dato, G. De; Angelis, P. De [Univ. of Tuscia, Viterbo (Italy). Dept. of Forest Environment and Resources; Pellizzaro, G.; Cesaraccio, C.; Duce, P. [National Research Council Institute of Biometeorology, Sassari (Italy); Sirca, C.; Spano, D. [Univ. of Sassari (Italy). Dept. of Economics and Wood Plant Ecosystems; Scarascia Mugnozza, G. [National Research Council Institute of Agro-Environmental and Forest Biology, Roma (Italy)

    2008-09-30

    The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report predicts warmer and drier conditions for the future European climate and the Mediterranean basin could be highly sensitive to future climatic change. In order to investigate how the forecast more stressing factors could affect Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems, an appropriate manipulation of the microclimate was carried out in an area covered by Mediterranean maquis aimed at extending the drought period and increasing the night-time temperature. Soil cover, plant growth, litterfall, leaf water status, and leaf nutritional status were monitored over three growing seasons. The manipulation altered the microclimate according to common scenarios, increasing mean annual night-time air temperature by about 1{sup o}C and mean annual temperature by about 0.5 {sup o}C, and decreasing precipitation between 6-46% of the total rainfall during the growing seasons. A general increase of vegetation cover was observed in the whole community during the three years of experimentation. This positive temporal pattern was mainly observed in control and warming treatment, whereas in the drought treatment it was less evident. At species-specific level, a clear negative effect of drought treatment was observed for C. monspeliensis percentage cover. Shoot elongation was not significantly affected by the warming treatment. A significant negative effect of drought treatment was noticed in the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 growing seasons. An increase of N and P concentrations in the drought treatment in Cistus was observed and it can be explained by the reduced shoot growth induced by the water shortage that we had observed in the same treatment. The absence of a concentration effect on the other two species could be the signal of the different behaviour with regard to a drier climate, and therefore could be a symptom of future change in species composition. We underline the need of long-term observation, because of the different

  19. Mechanisms for Amplified Central European Summer Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Mediterranean Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir; Tilinina, Natalia; Latif, Mojib

    2015-04-01

    Central European climate is influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, where a strong increase in sea surface temperature (SST) has been observed during the last four decades. One example of extreme weather events are cyclones following the "Vb" pathway. These cyclones are generated over the Mediterranean Sea, travel northeastwards around the Alps and then hit central European countries. These cyclones carry large amounts of moisture and cause extreme precipitation, and subsequently flooding, particularly in summer. To investigate the mechanisms causing increased summer extreme precipitation due to increased Mediterranean SST in Europe, we analyze a series of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. In the control run, we forced the model with the 1970-1999 SST climatology. In an additional run, we replaced the Mediterranean and Black Sea SST forcing with the climatology of the warmer 2000-2012 period. ECHAM5 was run at high horizontal resolution (T159) and integrated for 40 years in each experiment. 20-season return levels were derived as a measure of extreme precipitation for daily precipitation in JJA (June - August). These return levels are estimated as quantiles of a stationary generalized Pareto distribution, based on exceedances of the 95th precipitation percentile. We have shown in a previous contribution that precipitation return levels in JJA increase along the Vb cyclone track although the number of Vb cyclones does not increase. Here we discuss the mechanisms responsible for this increase. Due to the warmer climate in the Mediterranean region, climatological mean evaporation and precipitable water in the atmosphere are increased. On extreme days, composites show an even further increase in precipitable water over the central European region. On these extreme days, a higher sea level pressure gradient between central Europe and the Atlantic causes enhanced cyclonic flow that transports more moisture from the Mediterranean region to

  20. Cold Surge Activity Over the Gulf of Mexico in a Warmer Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edgar Perez Perez

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Cold surges are a dominant feature of midlatitude tropical interaction. During the North Hemisphere (NH winter, midlatitude waves propagating from the Rocky Mountains into the Gulf of Mexico result in cold surges, also known as Nortes or Tehuantepecers, associated with severe weather over the southern part of Mexico. The magnitude of their intense surface winds, precipitation and drops in surface temperature depends on the characteristics of the midlatitude wave propagating into the tropics. The high spatial resolution (20km X 20km version of the TL959L60-AGC Model of the Meteorological Research Institute of Japan is used to examine changes in cold surge activity under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario for the 2080 - 2099 period. The model realistically reproduces the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges for the 1980 - 1989 control period. The effect of changes in baroclinicity, static stability and mean flow over North America suggest that in a warmer climate, increased cold surge activity over the Gulf of Mexico would occur. However, these systems would have shorter wavelength (higher phase speeds and shorter lifespans that could reduce the total amount of winter precipitation. The increased frequency of cold surges over the Gulf of Mexico would be a consequence of weaker baroclinicity and static stability in the lower troposphere over the cold surge genesis region, along with more dominant westerly winds, resulting from ENSO-like conditions in the atmospheric circulations over North America.

  1. Effects of warmer and drier climate conditions on plant composition and biomass production in a Mediterranean shrubland community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Dato G

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The last IPCC report predicts warmer and drier conditions for the future European climate and the Mediterranean basin could be highly sensible to future climatic change. In order to investigate how the forecast more stressing factors could affect Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems, an appropriate manipulation of the microclimate was carried out in an area covered by Mediterranean maquis aimed at extending the drought period and increasing the night-time temperature. Soil cover, plant growth, litterfall, leaf water status, and leaf nutritional status were monitored over three growing seasons. The manipulation altered the microclimate according to common scenarios, increasing mean annual night-time air temperature by about 1 �C and mean annual temperature by about 0.5 �C, and decreasing precipitation between 6-46% of the total rainfall during the growing seasons. A general increase of vegetation cover was observed in the whole community during the three years of experimentation. This positive temporal pattern was mainly observed in control and warming treatment, whereas in the drought treatment it was less evident. At species-specific level, a clear negative effect of drought treatment was observed for C. monspeliensis percentage cover. Shoot elongation was not significantly affected by the warming treatment. A significant negative effect of drought treatment was noticed in the 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 growing seasons. An increase of N and P concentrations in the drought treatment in Cistus was observed and it can be explained by the reduced shoot growth induced by the water shortage that we had observed in the same treatment. The absence of a concentration effect on the other two species could be the signal of the different behaviour with regard to a drier climate, and therefore could be a symptom of future change in species composition. We underline the need of long-term observation, because of the different responses of plants in the short

  2. A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan; Aamaas, Borgar; Lund, Marianne T; Samset, Bjørn H

    2016-10-15

    Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016-2030 is about 60billionton (60Mg) CO2e. A CO2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03±0.02°C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO2 emissions.

  3. Increased microbial activity in a warmer and wetter climate enhances the risk of coastal hypoxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nydahl, Anna; Panigrahi, Satya; Wikner, Johan

    2013-08-01

    The coastal zone is the most productive area of the marine environment and the area that is most exposed to environmental drivers associated with human pressures in a watershed. In dark bottle incubation experiments, we investigated the short-term interactive effects of changes in salinity, temperature and riverine dissolved organic matter (rDOM) on microbial respiration, growth and abundance in an estuarine community. An interaction effect was found for bacterial growth, where the assimilation of rDOM increased at higher salinities. A 3 °C rise in the temperature had a positive effect on microbial respiration. A higher concentration of DOM consistently enhanced respiration and bacterial abundance, while an increase in temperature reduced bacterial abundance. The latter result was most likely caused by a positive interaction effect of temperature, salinity and rDOM on the abundance of bacterivorous flagellates. Elevated temperature and precipitation, causing increased discharges of rDOM and an associated lowered salinity, will therefore primarily promote bacterial respiration, growth and bacterivore abundance. Our results suggest a positive net outcome for microbial activity under the projected climate change, driven by different, partially interacting environmental factors. Thus, hypoxia in coastal zones may increase due to enhanced respiration caused by higher temperatures and rDOM discharge acting synergistically.

  4. Quantifying the risks of winter damage on overwintering crops under future climates: Will low-temperature damage be more likely in warmer climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, G.; Weih, M.

    2014-12-01

    Autumn-sown crops act as winter cover crop, reducing soil erosion and nutrient leaching, while potentially providing higher yields than spring varieties in many environments. Nevertheless, overwintering crops are exposed for longer periods to the vagaries of weather conditions. Adverse winter conditions, in particular, may negatively affect the final yield, by reducing crop survival or its vigor. The net effect of the projected shifts in climate is unclear. On the one hand, warmer temperatures may reduce the frequency of low temperatures, thereby reducing damage risk. On the other hand, warmer temperatures, by reducing plant acclimation level and the amount and duration of snow cover, may increase the likelihood of damage. Thus, warmer climates may paradoxically result in more extensive low temperature damage and reduced viability for overwintering plants. The net effect of a shift in climate is explored by means of a parsimonious probabilistic model, based on a coupled description of air temperature, snow cover, and crop tolerable temperature. Exploiting an extensive dataset of winter wheat responses to low temperature exposure, the risk of winter damage occurrence is quantified under conditions typical of northern temperate latitudes. The full spectrum of variations expected with climate change is explored, quantifying the joint effects of alterations in temperature averages and their variability as well as shifts in precipitation. The key features affecting winter wheat vulnerability to low temperature damage under future climates are singled out.

  5. Traits and habitat specialization influence in future range shifts of butterflies in a warmer climate

    OpenAIRE

    Gustafsson, Jennie Frida Linn

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is considered one of the greatest future threats against biodiversity. One predicted consequence of a global temperature increase is that biomes will move against the poles, which will force species to either adapt to an unsuitable habitat or follow their climatic range shift. A common way to assess the future geographical distribution of a species is to predict their future climatic range. However, this excludes factors that could interfere with the species ability to follow t...

  6. Health effects of a warmer climate - a knowledge review; Haelsopaaverkan av ett varmare klimat - en kunskapsoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rockloev, Joacim; Hurtig, Anna-Karin; Forsberg, Bertil (Umeaa Univ. (SE). Dept. of Public Health and Clinical Medicine)

    2008-01-15

    Global warming has caused changes that can already be seen and that motivates considerations of the possible adaptation measures needed to protect people and public health. Expert bodies such as the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) now conduct model simulations on how the world's climate is expected to change depending on, for example, the emission of greenhouse gases. The Swedish SMHI has provided scenarios for how the future climate in Sweden may develop. These assume an increase in the winter temperature of 3-8 deg C in winter and 1-5 deg C during summer, compared to the period 1961-1990. In addition, these scenarios indicate increased precipitation especially in northern Sweden, a greater risk of drought in Skaane during summer, as well as an increased risk of extreme events such as storms, heavy rainfall and heat waves. The climate change may affect health and its determinants in a number of different ways. The effects may be direct, as in extreme weather conditions, and also indirect, such as the influence of changes in climate and the environment on the spread of infectious diseases as well as the far-reaching effects of changes in other parts of the world. The aim of this overview report is to briefly present our current understanding of how health risks and public health may be affected. The presentations of potential consequences are partly built using knowledge of the associations between climate and health in various regions to draw analogies for areas expected to undergo changes that will make their climate more similar to current conditions in other regions. Distribution of vector-borne diseases can be determined by the type of climate a certain mosquito can survive. In the future we may face outbreaks of diseases that are new to us. Another way of making predictions is to use the observations of how health effects relate to weather variations in one place, for example, temperature fluctuations. In this regard we

  7. Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

  8. Functioning of terrestrial ecosystems of the Maritime Antarctic in a warmer climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.

    2007-01-01

    Environmental change, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will entail increases in temperature for most parts of the earth. Predictions are that the temperature increase in the Arctic and Antarctic regions will be highest of all on earth. As the mean summer temperat

  9. Plants adapted to warmer climate do not outperform regional plants during a natural heat wave.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucharova, Anna; Durka, Walter; Hermann, Julia-Maria; Hölzel, Norbert; Michalski, Stefan; Kollmann, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver

    2016-06-01

    With ongoing climate change, many plant species may not be able to adapt rapidly enough, and some conservation experts are therefore considering to translocate warm-adapted ecotypes to mitigate effects of climate warming. Although this strategy, called assisted migration, is intuitively plausible, most of the support comes from models, whereas experimental evidence is so far scarce. Here we present data on multiple ecotypes of six grassland species, which we grew in four common gardens in Germany during a natural heat wave, with temperatures 1.4-2.0°C higher than the long-term means. In each garden we compared the performance of regional ecotypes with plants from a locality with long-term summer temperatures similar to what the plants experienced during the summer heat wave. We found no difference in performance between regional and warm-adapted plants in four of the six species. In two species, regional ecotypes even outperformed warm-adapted plants, despite elevated temperatures, which suggests that translocating warm-adapted ecotypes may not only lack the desired effect of increased performance but may even have negative consequences. Even if adaptation to climate plays a role, other factors involved in local adaptation, such as biotic interactions, may override it. Based on our results, we cannot advocate assisted migration as a universal tool to enhance the performance of local plant populations and communities during climate change.

  10. Predicting Summer Dryness Under a Warmer Climate: Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Midwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, J. M.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    One of the most significant impacts of climate change is the potential alteration of local hydrologic cycles over agriculturally productive areas. As the world’s food supply continues to be taxed by its burgeoning population, a greater percentage of arable land will need to be utilized and land currently producing food must become more efficient. This study seeks to quantify the effects of climate change on soil moisture in the American Midwest. A series of 24-year numerical experiments were conducted to assess the ability of Regional Climate Model Version 3 coupled to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (RegCM3-IBIS) and Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme 1e (RegCM3-BATS1e) to simulate the observed hydroclimatology of the midwestern United States. Model results were evaluated using NASA Surface Radiation Budget, NASA Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, Illinois State Water Survey, Climate Research Unit Time Series 2.1, Global Soil Moisture Data Bank, and regional-scale estimations of evapotranspiration. The response of RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e to a surrogate climate change scenario, a warming of 3oC at the boundaries and doubling of CO2, was explored. Precipitation increased significantly during the spring and summer in both RegCM3-IBIS and RegCM3-BATS1e, leading to additional runoff. In contrast, enhancement of evapotranspiration and shortwave radiation were modest. Soil moisture remained relatively unchanged in RegCM3-IBIS, while RegCM3-BATS1e exhibited some fall and winter wetting.

  11. Optimal Regulation of the Balance between Productivity and Overwintering of Perennial Grasses in a Warmer Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åshild Ergon

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal growth patterns of perennial plants are linked to patterns of acclimation and de-acclimation to seasonal stresses. The timing of cold acclimation (development of freezing resistance and leaf growth cessation in autumn, and the timing of de-acclimation and leaf regrowth in spring, is regulated by seasonal cues in the environment, mainly temperature and light factors. Warming will lead to new combinations of these cues in autumn and spring. Extended thermal growing seasons offer a possibility for obtaining increased yields of perennial grasses at high latitudes. Increased productivity in the autumn may not be possible in all high latitude regions due to the need for light during cold acclimation and the need for accumulating a carbohydrate storage prior to winter. There is more potential for increased yields in spring due to the availability of light, but higher probability of freezing events in earlier springs would necessitate a delay of de-acclimation, or an ability to rapidly re-acclimate. In order to optimize the balance between productivity and overwintering in the future, the regulation of growth and acclimation processes may have to be modified. Here, the current knowledge on the coordinated regulation of growth and freezing resistance in perennial grasses is reviewed.

  12. Growth, condition factor, and bioenergetics modeling link warmer stream temperatures below a small dam to reduced performance of juvenile steelhead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauter, S.T.; Connolly, P.J.

    2010-01-01

    We investigated the growth and feeding performance of juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss using field measures and bioenergetics modeling. Juvenile steelhead populations were sampled from mid-June through August 2004 at study sites upstream and downstream of Hemlock Dam. The growth and diet of juvenile steelhead were determined for a warm (summer) and subsequent (late summer) transitional period at each study site. Empirical data on the growth and diet of juvenile steelhead and mean daily temperatures were used in a bioenergetics model to estimate the proportion of maximum consumption achieved by juvenile steelhead by site and period. Modeled estimates of feeding performance were better for juvenile steelhead at the upstream compared to the downstream site during both periods. The median condition factor of juvenile steelhead did not change over the summer at the upstream site, but showed a significant decline over time at the downstream site. A negative trend in median condition factor at the downstream site supported bioenergetics modeling results that suggested the warmer stream temperatures had a negative impact on juvenile steelhead. Bioenergetics modeling predicted a lower feeding performance for juvenile steelhead rearing downstream compared to upstream of Hemlock Dam although food availability appeared to be limited at both study sites during the warm period. Warmer water temperatures, greater diel variation, and change in diel pattern likely led to the reduced feeding performance and reduced growth, which could have affected the overall survival of juvenile steelhead downstream of Hemlock Dam. ?? 2010 by the Northwest Scientific Association.

  13. Building when the climate gets warmer; Bauen, wenn das Klima waermer wird - Schlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunner, C. U. [Energieplaner, CUB Architektur Energie Umwelt, Zuerich (Switzerland); Steinemann, U. [Ingenieurbuero Urs Steinemann, Wollerau (Switzerland); Nipkow, J. [Arena, Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energie-Alternativen, Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2007-07-01

    This final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE), takes a look at how the building process will have to take account of climate change with higher summer temperatures in Switzerland. The authors consider the situation as being in strong contrast to the past in Switzerland, when attention was devoted to energy demand in buildings during the winter. Today there is a new focus with the anticipation of increasingly frequent, extended hot spells in summer. The goal of this investigation is to analyse and present economic measures to assure a high level of summer comfort with a reduced demand for electricity under these changing conditions. Strategies with respect to construction, technology and operation are addressed. The current spread of technically questionable and inefficient room air conditioning units in residential and commercial buildings is considered as being strongly reminiscent of a dangerous, analogous case in the past, when small electric heaters became widespread. A largely untapped potential exists for increasing the efficiency of air conditioning and chiller technologies for both central systems and room units by the careful use of small temperature differences. Several new and unconventional solution paths are discussed, including high-efficiency room air conditioners, solar cooling equipment, balanced mechanical ventilation, phase-change materials, thermal storage, etc., all aimed at reducing electricity consumption. The expected additional electricity demand of around 1.9 TWh annually for ventilation and air conditioning is commented on.

  14. Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Asseng, S.

    2010-01-01

    Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates.

  15. Moist formulations of the EP flux and their connection to surface westerlies in current and warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, J. G.; O'Gorman, P. A.

    2015-12-01

    The Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux is an important diagnostic for wave propagation and wave-mean flow interaction in the atmosphere. Here we compare two moist formulations of the EP flux with the traditional dry EP flux and analyze their link to the position and strength of the surface westerlies using reanalysis data and both fully-coupled and idealized climate models. The first moist formulation of the EP flux modifies only the static stability to account for latent heat release by eddies, while the second moist formulation simply replaces all potential temperatures with equivalent potential temperatures. When moisture is taken into account, the latitude of maximum upward EP flux and maximum EP flux convergence shift equatorward and the strengths of both the flux and convergence increase, with larger changes for the second moist formulation. In simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, both the peak surface winds and peak upward EP flux in the lower troposphere tend to be co-located throughout the seasonal cycle (especially in the moist formulations) and shift poleward by similar amounts in response to greenhouse warming. In simulations over a wider range of climates with an idealized atmospheric climate model we find that in cold climates the position of the surface westerlies coincides with the position of the maximum vertical EP flux and shifts poleward with warming, while in warm climates the surface westerlies coincide with an anomalous region of EP flux divergence near the subtropical jet. An isentropic potential enstrophy budget analysis reveals that in this model the anomalous EP flux divergence is balanced by vertical eddy PV fluxes associated with diabatic heating from large-scale condensation and radiation. The anomalous divergence is weaker when using moist EP fluxes, indicating that the moist formulations are partly capturing this effect.

  16. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a data - model comparison for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, M. J.; Tindall, J.; Pickering, S. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Salzmann, U.

    2013-06-01

    Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa.

  17. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a global data set for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, M. J.; Tindall, J.; Pickering, S. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Salzmann, U.

    2014-01-01

    The global distribution of late Pliocene soils and lakes has been reconstructed using a synthesis of geological data. These reconstructions are then used as boundary conditions for the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, the southern part of northern Africa and in Asia. The inclusion of late Pliocene lakes increases precipitation in central Africa and at the locations of lakes in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and the southern part of northern Africa.

  18. Late Pliocene lakes and soils: a data – model comparison for the analysis of climate feedbacks in a warmer world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Pound

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Based on a synthesis of geological data we have reconstructed the global distribution of Late Pliocene soils and lakes which are then used as boundary conditions in a series of model experiments using the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (HadCM3 and the BIOME4 mechanistic vegetation model. By combining our novel soil and lake reconstructions with a fully coupled climate model we are able to explore the feedbacks of soils and lakes on the climate of the Late Pliocene. Our experiments reveal regionally confined changes of local climate and vegetation in response to the new boundary conditions. The addition of Late Pliocene soils has the largest influence on surface air temperatures, with notable increases in Australia, southern North Africa and Asia. The inclusion of Late Pliocene lakes generates a significant increase in precipitation in central Africa, as well as seasonal increases in the Northern Hemisphere. When combined, the feedbacks on climate from Late Pliocene lakes and soils improve the data to model fit in western North America and southern North Africa.

  19. Statistical downscaling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency and the amplified role of the Caribbean low-level jet in a warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jhordanne J.; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Taylor, Michael A.; Campbell, Jayaka D.

    2016-04-01

    This study assesses the skill of four statistical models in hindcasting North Atlantic annual tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over 1950-2008 with the aim of projecting future activity. Three of the models are motivated by operational statistical forecast schemes and are premised on standard hurricane predictors including sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and near-surface zonal winds. The fourth model uses an SST gradient index previously proposed for Caribbean seasonal rainfall prediction. The statistical models, created from backward regression, explain 24-48% of the observed variability in 1950-2008 annual TC frequency. The future state of the predictors is extracted from the ECHAM5, HadCM3, MRI CGCM2.3.2a, and MIROC3.2 global climate model (GCM) simulations under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Models utilizing SST and near-surface wind predictors suggest significant increases in mean annual frequency by 2-8 TCs by 2070-2090, compared to a single surface wind predictor model, indicating that positive trends in SSTs under global warming have a larger relative influence on projections than changes in the variability of the surface winds. Wind-only models exhibit declines in TC frequency, while the SST gradient model yields little change relative to the present-day mean. Backward regression reapplied against the 1990-2008 period, analogous to future warmer oceanic and atmospheric state relative to the earlier years in the record, retains only the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ)-type predictors, explaining up to 82% of TC frequency variability and suggesting a more dominant role for the CLLJ in a warmer climate. Projections using the new models show either a more conservative increase or a stronger decrease in frequency, consistent with a stronger CLLJ.

  20. Wildfires in a warmer climate: Emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veira, A.; Lasslop, G.; Kloster, S.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, which has been extended by a semiempirical plume height parametrization. Our results indicate a general increase in extratropical and a decrease in tropical wildfire activity at the end of the 21st century. Changes in emission fluxes are most pronounced for the strongest warming scenario RCP8.5 (+49% in the extratropics, -37% in the tropics). Tropospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations are similarly affected by changes in emission fluxes and changes in climate conditions with regional variations of up to -50% to +100%. In the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, we attribute a mean increase in aerosol optical thickness of +0.031±0.002 to changes in wildfire emissions. Due to the compensating effects of fire intensification and more stable atmospheric conditions, global mean emission heights change by at most 0.3 km with only minor influence on BC long-range transport. The changes in wildfire emission fluxes for the RCP8.5 scenario, however, may largely compensate the projected reduction in anthropogenic BC emissions by the end of the 21st century.

  1. Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; Stocker, Thomas F.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Raible, Christoph C.; Smerdon, Jason E.

    2017-07-01

    The large socioeconomic costs of droughts make them a crucial target for impact assessments of climate change scenarios. Using multiple drought metrics and a set of simulations with the Community Earth System Model targeting 1.5°C and 2°C above preindustrial global mean temperatures, we investigate changes in aridity and the risk of consecutive drought years. If warming is limited to 2°C, these simulations suggest little change in drought risk for the U.S. Southwest and Central Plains compared to present day. In the Mediterranean and central Europe, however, drought risk increases significantly for both 1.5°C and 2°C warming targets, and the additional 0.5°C of the 2°C climate leads to significantly higher drought risk. Our study suggests that limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C, as aspired to by the Paris Climate Agreement, may have benefits for future drought risk but that such benefits may be regional and in some cases highly uncertain.

  2. Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M; Soares, Pedro M M; Cancela, Javier J; Pinto, Joaquim G; Santos, João A

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

  3. Integrated Analysis of Climate, Soil, Topography and Vegetative Growth in Iberian Viticultural Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraga, Helder; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Moutinho-Pereira, José; Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cancela, Javier J.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Santos, João A.

    2014-01-01

    The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate. PMID:25251495

  4. Infant incubators and radiant warmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, E F

    1983-10-01

    Incubators and radiant warmers are used to maintain the body temperature of newborn infants. This is best done so that the energy expended for metabolic heat production is minimized. The heat output of these devices is usually regulated by servocontrol to keep the skin temperature constant at a site on the abdomen where a thermistor probe is attached. In incubators, air temperature can also be controlled as an alternative to skin temperature servocontrol. Increased ambient humidity, heat shields and clothing have been used to decrease the evaporative or nonevaporative heat loss of infants in incubators under certain conditions. Double-walled incubators, by adding a second inner layer of Plexiglas, reduce radiant heat loss. They may also reduce total heat loss, but only if air temperature is controlled rather than skin temperature. The minimal oxygen consumption under a radiant warmer is the same or perhaps slightly higher than it is for the same infant in an incubator. Compared with incubators, the partition of body heat loss is quite different under radiant warmers. Radiant warmers increase convective and evaporative heat loss and insensible water loss but eliminate radiant heat loss or change it to net gain. A heat shield of thin polyethylene film can be used with a radiant warmer to reduce heat loss by convection and evaporation. The major advantage of the radiant warmer is the easy access it provides to critically-ill infants without disturbing the thermal environment. Its major disadvantage is the increase in insensible water loss produced by the radiant warmer. Most infants can be safely and adequately cared for in either incubator or radiant warmer bed.

  5. Western juniper and ponderosa pine ecotonal climate-growth relationships across landscape gradients in southern Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, K.C.; Pyke, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    Forecasts of climate change for the Pacific northwestern United States predict warmer temperatures, increased winter precipitation, and drier summers. Prediction of forest growth responses to these climate fluctuations requires identification of climatic variables limiting tree growth, particularly at limits of free species distributions. We addressed this problem at the pine-woodland ecotone using tree-ring data for western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis var. occidentalis Hook.) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Loud.) from southern Oregon. Annual growth chronologies for 1950-2000 were developed for each species at 17 locations. Correlation and linear regression of climate-growth relationships revealed that radial growth in both species is highly dependent on October-June precipitation events that recharge growing season soil water. Mean annual radial growth for the nine driest years suggests that annual growth in both species is more sensitive to drought at lower elevations and sites with steeper slopes and sandy or rocky soils. Future increases in winter precipitation could increase productivity in both species at the pine-woodland ecotone. Growth responses, however, will also likely vary across landscape features, and our findings suggest that heightened sensitivity to future drought periods and increased temperatures in the two species will predominantly occur at lower elevation sites with poor water-holding capacities. ?? 2008 NRC.

  6. A hypothesis and a case-study projection of an influence of MJO modulation on boreal-summer tropical cyclogenesis in a warmer climate with a global non-hydrostatic model: a transition toward the central Pacific?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KAZUYOSHI eOOUCHI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The eastward shift of the enhanced activity of tropical cyclone to the central Pacific is a robust projection result for a future warmer climate, and is shared by most of the state-of-the-art climate models. The shift has been argued to originate from the underlying El-Ñino like sea-surface temperature (SST forcing. This study explores the possibility that the change of the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO can be an additional, if not alternative, contributor to the shift, using the dataset of Yamada et al. (2010 from a global non-hydrostatic 14-km grid mesh time-slice experiment for a boreal-summer case. Within the case-study framework, we develop the hypothesis that an eastward shift of the high-activity area of the MJO, as manifested itself as the significant intra-seasonal modulation of the enhanced precipitation, is associated with the increased tropical cyclogenesis potential over the North central Pacific by regulating cyclonic relative vorticity and vertical shear. In contrast, the North Indian Ocean and maritime continent undergo relatively diminished genesis potential. An implication is that uncertainty in the future tropical cyclogenesis in some part of the Pacific and other ocean basins could be reduced if projection of the MJO and its connection with the underlying SST environment can be better understood and constrained by the improvement of climate models.

  7. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark W Schwartz

    Full Text Available Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1 whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2 if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3 how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  8. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Mark W; Dolanc, Christopher R; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y; Schwartz, Ari C; Williams, John N; Tang, Ya

    2013-01-01

    Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th) century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  9. Revisions of the Fish Invasiveness Screening Kit (FISK) for its application in warmer climatic zones, with particular reference to peninsular Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Larry L; Hill, Jeffrey E; Vilizzi, Lorenzo; Hardin, Scott; Copp, Gordon H

    2013-08-01

    The initial version (v1) of the Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) was adapted from the Weed Risk Assessment of Pheloung, Williams, and Halloy to assess the potential invasiveness of nonnative freshwater fishes in the United Kingdom. Published applications of FISK v1 have been primarily in temperate-zone countries (Belgium, Belarus, and Japan), so the specificity of this screening tool to that climatic zone was not noted until attempts were made to apply it in peninsular Florida. To remedy this shortcoming, the questions and guidance notes of FISK v1 were reviewed and revised to improve clarity and extend its applicability to broader climatic regions, resulting in changes to 36 of the 49 questions. In addition, upgrades were made to the software architecture of FISK to improve overall computational speed as well as graphical user interface flexibility and friendliness. We demonstrate the process of screening a fish species using FISK v2 in a realistic management scenario by assessing the Barcoo grunter Scortum barcoo (Terapontidae), a species whose management concerns are related to its potential use for aquaponics in Florida. The FISK v2 screening of Barcoo grunter placed the species into the lower range of medium risk (score = 5), suggesting it is a permissible species for use in Florida under current nonnative species regulations. Screening of the Barcoo grunter illustrates the usefulness of FISK v2 as a proactive tool serving to inform risk management decisions, but the low level of confidence associated with the assessment highlighted a dearth of critical information on this species.

  10. Economic Growth, Climate Change, and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minos, Dimitrios; Butzlaff, Iris; Demmler, Kathrin Maria; Rischke, Ramona

    2016-12-01

    Human and planetary health as well as economic growth are firmly interlinked and subject to complex interaction effects. In this paper, we provide an overview of interlinkages between economic growth, climate change, and obesity focusing on recent advances in the literature. In addition to empirical findings, we discuss different theoretical frameworks used to conceptualize these complex links and highlight policy options and challenges. We conclude that policies addressing both climate change and obesity simultaneously are particularly promising and often suitable for ensuring sustainable development.

  11. Growth responses of Scots pine to climatic factors on reclaimed oil shale mined land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metslaid, Sandra; Stanturf, John A; Hordo, Maris; Korjus, Henn; Laarmann, Diana; Kiviste, Andres

    2016-07-01

    Afforestation on reclaimed mining areas has high ecological and economic importance. However, ecosystems established on post-mining substrate can become vulnerable due to climate variability. We used tree-ring data and dendrochronological techniques to study the relationship between climate variables and annual growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing on reclaimed open cast oil shale mining areas in Northeast Estonia. Chronologies for trees of different age classes (50, 40, 30) were developed. Pearson's correlation analysis between radial growth indices and monthly climate variables revealed that precipitation in June-July and higher mean temperatures in spring season enhanced radial growth of pine plantations, while higher than average temperatures in summer months inhibited wood production. Sensitivity of radial increment to climatic factors on post-mining soils was not homogenous among the studied populations. Older trees growing on more developed soils were more sensitive to precipitation deficit in summer, while growth indices of two other stand groups (young and middle-aged) were highly correlated to temperature. High mean temperatures in August were negatively related to annual wood production in all trees, while trees in the youngest stands benefited from warmer temperatures in January. As a response to thinning, mean annual basal area increment increased up to 50 %. By managing tree competition in the closed-canopy stands, through the thinning activities, tree sensitivity and response to climate could be manipulated.

  12. Climate change and population growth in Timor Leste: implications for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molyneux, Nicholas; da Cruz, Gil Rangel; Williams, Robert L; Andersen, Rebecca; Turner, Neil C

    2012-12-01

    The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.

  13. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm

  14. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

    2016-11-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of

  15. Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

    2016-11-12

    Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH4. It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH4 emissions from the

  16. climate change and lake water resourcesin sub-saharan africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    ABSTRACT. This review assesses the impact of climate change on lake water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA). ... population growth, water pollution, economic progress, land use .... et al., [29] pointed out that warmer air temperature is.

  17. Tree-ring growth of Scots pine, Common beech and Pedunculate oak under future climate in northeastern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurasinski, Gerald; Scharnweber, Tobias; Schröder, Christian; Lennartz, Bernd; Bauwe, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Germany Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas Common beech and Pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak in the region.

  18. Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Babst, Flurin; Bellassen, Valentin; Frank, David; Launois, Thomas; Tan, Kun; Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

  19. Past Warmer Climate Periods at the Antarctic Margin Detected From Proxies and Measurements of Biogenic Opal in the AND-1B Core: The XRF Spectral Silver (Ag) Peak Used as a new Tool for Biogenic Opal Quantification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhn, G.; Helling, D.; von Eynatten, H.; Niessen, F.; Magens, D.

    2008-12-01

    Quantification of biogenic opal in marine sediments is a time consuming job, but the results could indicate periods of higher bioproductivity and warmer conditions than today at the Antarctic margin. Within the international Antarctic Geological Drilling Program (ANDRILL), core AND-1B was drilled and recovered a 1285 m sequence from a flexural moat basin filled with glacimarine, terrigenous, volcanic and biogenic sediments below the McMurdo Ice Shelf. Our main goal is to study the variability and the stability of the Ross Ice Shelf from Miocene to Recent. The melting and collapse of large Antarctic ice shelves may cause a significant sea level rise because of accelerated inland ice glacier surges into the ocean. Biogenic opal content in sediments can be deduced indirectly from grain density measurements on single samples, or faster and more continuous by gamma ray attenuation measurements on the core, with subsequent wet bulk and grain density calculations. Spectral colour reflectance (b* value) measurements on the split core surface can also be a fast tool for opal content quantification. Of course, they all have disadvantages in comparison to direct measurement on samples using X-ray diffraction or geochemical leaching methods. Some major and minor chemical elements were measured directly on split core surfaces with a non- destructive X-Ray Fluorescence Core Scanner method (XRF-CS, Avaatech) in the field. Quantitative geochemical analyses like determination of total inorganic and organic carbon (TOC), biogenic opal as well as major and minor elements were done on core samples. We found a strong positive correlation between the counts per second of the XRF-CS Ag peak area and the biogenic opal content of the samples (r=0.81) not only in the AND-1B core but in others as well from the Antarctic margin. In literature, it is noted that diatoms could accumulate Ag in sediments, so at first we were pleased to find this Ag enrichment with our tool. But further

  20. [Responses of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth to climate warming in Great Xing' an Mountins: a case study in Mangui].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xing-Liang; He, Xing-Yuan; Chen, Zhen-Ju; Cui, Ming-Xing; Li, Na

    2011-12-01

    Based on the theory and methodology of dendrochronology, the tree ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica in Mangui of Great Xing' an Mountains was developed, and the relationships between the standardized tree ring width chronology and local climate factors (temperature and precipitation) as well as the effects of climate factors on the P. sylvestris var. mongolica radial growth were analyzed. In this region, the mean monthly temperature in April-August of current year was the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the increasing mean monthly temperature from April to August had negative effects to the radial growth. The simulation of the variations of the radial growth by the mean monthly temperature change in April-August showed that the radial growth of P. sylvestris var. mongolica would present a declining trend accompanied with the warmer and drier regional climate condition.

  1. Hybridization in a warmer world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunco, Amanda J

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is profoundly affecting the evolutionary trajectory of individual species and ecological communities, in part through the creation of novel species assemblages. How climate change will influence competitive interactions has been an active area of research. Far less attention, however, has been given to altered reproductive interactions. Yet, reproductive interactions between formerly isolated species are inevitable as populations shift geographically and temporally as a result of climate change, potentially resulting in introgression, speciation, or even extinction. The susceptibility of hybridization rates to anthropogenic disturbance was first recognized in the 1930s. To date, work on anthropogenically mediated hybridization has focused primarily on either physical habitat disturbance or species invasion. Here, I review recent literature on hybridization to identify how ecological responses to climate change will increase the likelihood of hybridization via the dissolution of species barriers maintained by habitat, time, or behavior. Using this literature, I identify several cases where novel hybrid zones have recently formed, likely as a result of changing climate. Future research should focus on identifying areas and taxonomic groups where reproductive species interactions are most likely to be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, a better understanding of the evolutionary consequences of climate-mediated secondary contact is urgently needed. Paradoxically, hybridization is both a major conservation concern and an important source of novel genetic and phenotypic variation. Hybridization may therefore both contribute to increasing rates of extinction and stimulate the creation of novel phenotypes that will speed adaptation to novel climates. Predicting which result will occur following secondary contact will be an important contribution to conservation for many species.

  2. Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikefuji, Masako [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Sakamoto, Hiroaki [Department of Economics, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan)

    2010-08-08

    This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with four heterogeneous regions, labeled 'West' (cold and rich), 'China' (cold and poor), 'India' (warm and poor), and 'Africa' (warm and very poor). We introduce health impacts into a simple integrated assessment model where both the local cooling effect of aerosols as well as the global warming effect of CO2 are endogenous, and investigate how those factors affect the equilibrium path. We show how some of the important aspects of the equilibrium, including emission abatement rates, health costs, and economic growth, depend on the economic and geographical characteristics of each region.

  3. Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signarbieux, Constant; Toledano, Ester; Sangines, Paula; Fu, Yongshuo; Schlaepfer, Rodolphe; Buttler, Alexandre; Vitasse, Yann

    2017-04-01

    In temperate trees, the timing of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been well investigated. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013-2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1340 vs. 371 m.a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease of air temperature resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in autumn: saplings experiencing a cooler winter showed a delay of 31 days in their budset timing compared to the control, whereas saplings experiencing a warmer winter showed 10 days earlier budset. The dependency of spring over autumn phenophases might be partly explained by the building up of the non-structural carbohydrate storage and suggests that the potential delay in growth cessation due to global warming might be smaller than expected. We did not find a significant correlation in budburst dates between 2014 and 2015, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.

  4. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  5. Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

    2017-06-01

    Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

  6. Evidence for warmer interglacials in East Antarctic ice cores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sime, L C; Wolff, E W; Oliver, K I C; Tindall, J C

    2009-11-19

    Stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in the Antarctic ice core record have revolutionized our understanding of Pleistocene climate variations and have allowed reconstructions of Antarctic temperature over the past 800,000 years (800 kyr; refs 1, 2). The relationship between the D/H ratio of mean annual precipitation and mean annual surface air temperature is said to be uniform +/-10% over East Antarctica and constant with time +/-20% (refs 3-5). In the absence of strong independent temperature proxy evidence allowing us to calibrate individual ice cores, prior general circulation model (GCM) studies have supported the assumption of constant uniform conversion for climates cooler than that of the present day. Here we analyse the three available 340 kyr East Antarctic ice core records alongside input from GCM modelling. We show that for warmer interglacial periods the relationship between temperature and the isotopic signature varies among ice core sites, and that therefore the conversions must be nonlinear for at least some sites. Model results indicate that the isotopic composition of East Antarctic ice is less sensitive to temperature changes during warmer climates. We conclude that previous temperature estimates from interglacial climates are likely to be too low. The available evidence is consistent with a peak Antarctic interglacial temperature that was at least 6 K higher than that of the present day -approximately double the widely quoted 3 +/- 1.5 K (refs 5, 6).

  7. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  8. Complementarity effects on tree growth are contingent on tree size and climatic conditions across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Ratcliffe, Sophia; Calatayud, Joaquín; Kändler, Gerald; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Dahlgren, Jonas; Wirth, Christian; Zavala, Miguel A.

    2016-08-01

    Neglecting tree size and stand structure dynamics might bias the interpretation of the diversity-productivity relationship in forests. Here we show evidence that complementarity is contingent on tree size across large-scale climatic gradients in Europe. We compiled growth data of the 14 most dominant tree species in 32,628 permanent plots covering boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes. Niche complementarity is expected to result in significant growth increments of trees surrounded by a larger proportion of functionally dissimilar neighbours. Functional dissimilarity at the tree level was assessed using four functional types: i.e. broad-leaved deciduous, broad-leaved evergreen, needle-leaved deciduous and needle-leaved evergreen. Using Linear Mixed Models we show that, complementarity effects depend on tree size along an energy availability gradient across Europe. Specifically: (i) complementarity effects at low and intermediate positions of the gradient (coldest-temperate areas) were stronger for small than for large trees; (ii) in contrast, at the upper end of the gradient (warmer regions), complementarity is more widespread in larger than smaller trees, which in turn showed negative growth responses to increased functional dissimilarity. Our findings suggest that the outcome of species mixing on stand productivity might critically depend on individual size distribution structure along gradients of environmental variation.

  9. Changes in alpine plant growth under future climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rammig

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Alpine shrub- and grasslands are shaped by extreme climatic conditions such as a long-lasting snow cover and a short vegetation period. Such ecosystems are expected to be highly sensitive to global environmental change. Prolonged growing seasons and shifts in temperature and precipitation are likely to affect plant phenology and growth. In a unique experiment, climatology and plant growth was monitored for almost a decade at 17 snow meteorological stations in different alpine regions along the Swiss Alps. Regression analyses revealed highly significant correlations between mean air temperature in May/June and snow melt out, onset of plant growth, and plant height. These correlations were used to project plant growth phenology for future climate conditions based on the gridded output of a set of regional climate models runs. Melt out and onset of growth were projected to occur on average 17 days earlier by the end of the century than in the control period from 1971–2000 under the future climate conditions of the low resolution climate model ensemble. Plant height and biomass production were expected to increase by 77% and 45%, respectively. The earlier melt out and onset of growth will probably cause a considerable shift towards higher growing plants and thus increased biomass. Our results represent the first quantitative and spatially explicit estimates of climate change impacts on future growing season length and the respective productivity of alpine plant communities in the Swiss Alps.

  10. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

    2014-01-01

    Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  11. Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie A Harsch

    Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

  12. Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S.A.

    2015-01-01

    or upper elevational range edges. Across latitude, climate sensitivity of growth was greatest at the boundary between the Low and High Arctic, where permafrost is thawing4 and most of the global permafrost soil carbon pool is stored9. The observed variation in climate–shrub growth relationships should...... be incorporated into Earth system models to improve future projections of climate change impacts across the tundra biome.......Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance1–4. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost2,5–8, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting...

  13. Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-12-01

    For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.

  14. Temperature Impacts the Development and Survival of Common Cutworm (Spodoptera litura: Simulation and Visualization of Potential Population Growth in India under Warmer Temperatures through Life Cycle Modelling and Spatial Mapping.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babasaheb B Fand

    Full Text Available The common cutworm, Spodoptera litura, has become a major pest of soybean (Glycine max throughout its Indian range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this insect to become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions due to increased habitat suitability. To examine this possibility, we developed temperature-based phenology model for S. litura, by constructing thermal reaction norms for cohorts of single life stages, at both constant and fluctuating temperatures within the ecologically relevant range (15-38°C for its development. Life table parameters were estimated stochastically using cohort updating and rate summation approach. The model was implemented in the geographic information system to examine the potential future pest status of S. litura using temperature change projections from SRES A1B climate change scenario for the year 2050. The changes were visualized by means of three spatial indices demonstrating the risks for establishment, number of generations per year and pest abundance according to the temperature conditions. The results revealed that the development rate as a function of temperature increased linearly for all the immature stages of S. litura until approximately 34-36°C, after which it became non-linear. The extreme temperature of 38°C was found lethal to larval and pupal stages of S. litura wherein no development to the next stage occurred. Females could lay no eggs at the extreme low (15°C and high (> 35°C test temperatures, demonstrating the importance of optimum temperature in determining the suitability of climate for the mating and reproduction in S. litura. The risk mapping predicts that due to temperature increase under future climate change, much of the soybean areas in Indian states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, will become suitable for S. litura establishment and increased pest activity, indicating the expansion of the suitable and favourable areas over time. This has

  15. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; De Vries, Hylke

    2014-01-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their

  16. Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Magnus, J.R.; Sakamoto, H.

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with four heterogeneous regions, labeled ‘West’ (cold and rich), ‘China’ (cold and poor), ‘India’ (warm and poor), and ‘Africa’ (warm and very poor). We introduce health impacts into a simple integrated ass

  17. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    Extreme access to water can spread dengue fever and malaria , as the conditions favor disease-carrying insects Such health hazards affect the poor due to...Report. Temesgen, A K (2010) Climate Change to Conflict? Lessons from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya Fafo-Report 2010:09 Deressa, T T

  18. Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Magnus, J.R.; Sakamoto, H.

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with four heterogeneous regions, labeled ‘West’ (cold and rich), ‘China’ (cold and poor), ‘India’ (warm and poor), and ‘Africa’ (warm and very poor). We introduce health impacts into a simple integrated

  19. Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Rountrey, Adam Nicholas; Meeuwig, Jessica Jane; Newman, Stephen John; Zinke, Jens; Meekan, Mark Gregory

    2015-06-08

    Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.

  20. Copepods link quahog growth to climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witbaard, R.; Jansma, E.; Sass, U.G.W.

    2003-01-01

    From samples collected in 1983, 1991 and 2000, a long-term growth record for the bivalve Arctica islandica from the northern North Sea was constructed with methods derived from dendrochronology. Subsequent response-function analyses demonstrated that shell growth was mainly influenced by the abundan

  1. Linking wood anatomy and xylogenesis allows pinpointing of climate and drought influences on growth of coexisting conifers in continental Mediterranean climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same

  2. Geographical differences in maternal basking behaviour and offspring growth rate in a climatically widespread viviparous reptile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadby, Chloé D; Jones, Susan M; Wapstra, Erik

    2014-04-01

    In reptiles, the thermal environment during embryonic development affects offspring phenotypic traits and potentially offspring fitness. In viviparous species, mothers can potentially manipulate the embryonic thermal environment through their basking behaviour and, thus, may be able to manipulate offspring phenotype and increase offspring fitness. One way in which mothers can maximise offspring phenotype (and thus potentially affect offspring fitness) is by fine-tuning their basking behaviour to the environment in order to buffer the embryo from deleterious developmental temperatures. In widespread species, it is unclear whether populations that have evolved under different climatic conditions will exhibit different maternal behaviours and/or thermal effects on offspring phenotype. To test this, we provided extended or reduced basking opportunity to gravid spotted skinks (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and their offspring from two populations at the climatic extremes of the species' distribution. Gravid females fine-tuned their basking behaviour to the basking opportunity, which allowed them to buffer their embryos from potentially negative thermal effects. This fine-tuning of female basking behaviour appears to have led to the expression of geographical differences in basking behaviour, with females from the cold alpine regions being more opportunistic in their basking behaviour than females from the warmer regions. However, those differences in maternal behaviour did not preclude the evolution of geographic differences in thermal effects: offspring growth varied between populations, potentially suggesting local adaptation to basking conditions. Our results demonstrate that maternal effects and phenotypic plasticity can play a significant role in allowing species to cope in changing environmental conditions, which is particularly relevant in the context of climate change.

  3. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina

    2016-10-26

    Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling

  4. The time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hallegatte, Stephane [CIRED - CNRM, Nogent-sur-Marne (France)

    2005-04-01

    This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modelling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. It is found that: (i) it has a 70-year characteristic time, which is long when compared to the system's other time-scales, and it cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change; (ii) mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy is significant only after a 20-year delay and really efficient after a one-century delay; (iii) the IPCC methodology, that neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. Usefully, this metric for climate change damages is particularly independent of the baseline scenario. (orig.)

  5. Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T

    2015-10-01

    Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes.

  6. Competition alters tree growth responses to climate at individual and stand scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin R. Ford; Ian K. Breckheimer; Jerry F. Franklin; James A. Freund; Steve J. Kroiss; Andrew J. Larson; Elinore J. Theobald; Janneke HilleRisLambers

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how climate affects tree growth is essential for assessing climate change impacts on forests but can be confounded by effects of competition, which strongly influences tree responses to climate. We characterized the joint influences of tree size, competition, and climate on diameter growth using hierarchical Bayesian methods applied to permanent sample...

  7. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alonso, David; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a

  8. Responses of vegetation growth to climate change in china

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Zhou, T.

    2015-04-01

    Global warming-related climate changes have significantly impacted the growth of terrestrial vegetation. Quantifying the spatiotemporal characteristic of the vegetation's response to climate is crucial for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation. In this study, we employed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) that was calculated for various time scales (1 to 12 months) from monthly records of mean temperature and precipitation totals using 511 meteorological stations in China to study the response of vegetation types to droughts. We separated the NDVI into 12 time series (one per month) and also used the SPEI of 12 droughts time scales to make the correlation. The results showed that the differences exist in various vegetation types. For needle-leaved forest, broadleaf forest and shrubland, they responded to droughts at long time scales (9 to 12 months). For grassland, meadow and cultivated vegetation, they responded to droughts at short time scales (1 to 5months). The positive correlations were mostly found in arid and sub-arid environments where soil water was a primary constraining factor for plant growth, and the negative correlations always existed in humid environments where temperature and radiation played significant roles in vegetation growth. Further spatial analysis indicated that the positive correlations were primarily found in northern China, especially in northwestern China, which is a region that always has water deficit, and the negative correlations were found in southern China, especially in southeastern China, that is a region has water surplus most of the year. The disclosed patterns of spatiotemporal responses to droughts are important for studying the impact of climate change to vegetation growth.

  9. Climate-responsive landscape architecture design education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenzholzer, S.; Brown, R.D.

    2013-01-01

    There is compelling evidence that Earth’s climate is changing, in most cases becoming warmer. This effect is exacerbated in urban environments by the growth of urban heat islands. These two processes can have far-reaching effects on human thermal comfort and health. Landscape architecture is well po

  10. Climate Controls on Tree Growth in the Western Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Kerchouche, Dalila; Slimani, Said; Ilmen, Rachid; Hasnaoui, Fouad; Guibal, Frederic; Canarerim Hesys Hykui; Sanchez-Salguero, Raul; Piermattei, Alma; Sesbou, Abdessadek; Cook, Benjamin I.; Sabir, Mohamed; Touchane, Hayat

    2017-01-01

    The first large-scale network of tree-ring chronologies from the western Mediterranean (WM; 32 deg N-43 deg N, 10 deg W-17 deg E) is described and analyzed to identify the seasonal climatic signal in indices of annual ring width. Correlation and rotated empirical orthogonal function analyses are applied to 85 tree-ring series and corresponding gridded climate data to assess the climate signal embedded in the network. Chronologies range in length from 80 to 1129 years. Monthly correlations and partial correlations show overall positive associations for Pinus halepensis (PIHA) and Cedrus atlantica (CDAT) with winter (December-February) and spring (March-May) precipitation across this network. In both seasons, the precipitation correlation with PIHA is stronger, while CDAT chronologies tend to be longer. A combination of positive correlations between growth and winter-summer precipitation and negative partial correlations with growing season temperatures suggests that chronologies in at least part of the network reflect soil moisture and the integrated effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration signal. The range of climate response observed across this network reflects a combination of both species and geographic influences. Western Moroccan chronologies have the strongest association with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  11. Climate Controls on Tree Growth in the Western Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Kerchouche, Dalila; Slimani, Said; Ilmen, Rachid; Hasnaoui, Fouad; Guibal, Frederic; Canarerim Hesys Hykui; Sanchez-Salguero, Raul; hide

    2017-01-01

    The first large-scale network of tree-ring chronologies from the western Mediterranean (WM; 32 deg N-43 deg N, 10 deg W-17 deg E) is described and analyzed to identify the seasonal climatic signal in indices of annual ring width. Correlation and rotated empirical orthogonal function analyses are applied to 85 tree-ring series and corresponding gridded climate data to assess the climate signal embedded in the network. Chronologies range in length from 80 to 1129 years. Monthly correlations and partial correlations show overall positive associations for Pinus halepensis (PIHA) and Cedrus atlantica (CDAT) with winter (December-February) and spring (March-May) precipitation across this network. In both seasons, the precipitation correlation with PIHA is stronger, while CDAT chronologies tend to be longer. A combination of positive correlations between growth and winter-summer precipitation and negative partial correlations with growing season temperatures suggests that chronologies in at least part of the network reflect soil moisture and the integrated effects of precipitation and evapotranspiration signal. The range of climate response observed across this network reflects a combination of both species and geographic influences. Western Moroccan chronologies have the strongest association with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  12. Agroecosystem productivity in a warmer and CO2 enriched atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernacchi, Carl; Köhler, Iris; Ort, Donald; Long, Steven; Clemente, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    A number of in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that address the response of key ecosystem services of major agronomic species to rising CO2. Global warming, however, is inextricably linked to rising greenhouse gases in general, of which CO2 is the most dominant. Therefore, agroecosystem functioning in future conditions requires an understanding of plant responses to both rising CO2 and increased temperatures. Few in-field manipulative experiments have been conducted that supplement both heating and CO2 above background concentrations. Here, the results of six years of experimentation using a coupled Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) technology with variable output infrared heating arrays are reported. The manipulative experiment increased temperatures (+ 3.5˚ C) and CO2 (+ 200 μmol mol-1) above background levels for on two major agronomic crop species grown throughout the world, Zea mays (maize) and Glycine max (soybean). The first phase of this research addresses the response of plant physiological parameters to growth in elevated CO2 and warmer temperatures for maize and soybean grown in an open-air manipulative experiment. The results show that any increase in ecosystem productivity associated with rising CO2 is either similar or is offset by growth at higher temperatures, inconsistent with the perceived benefits of higher CO2 plus warmer temperatures on agroecosystem productivity. The second phase of this research addresses the opportunity to genetically modify soybean to allow for improved productivity under high CO2 and warmer temperatures by increasing a key photosynthetic carbon reduction cycle enzyme, SPBase. The results from this research demonstrates that manipulation of the photosynthetic pathway can lead to higher productivity in high CO2 and temperature relative to the wild-type control soybean. Overall, this research advances the understanding of the physiological responses of two major crops, and the impact on ecosystem services

  13. Climate mechanism for stronger typhoons in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Nam-Young; Elsner, James B.; Shin, Dong-hyun

    2016-04-01

    Violent typhoons continue to have catastrophic impacts on economies and welfare but how they are responding to global warming has yet to be fully understood. Here we use an empirical framework to explain physically why observations support a tight connection between increasing ocean warmth and the increasing intensity of super typhoons in the western North Pacific. We show that the energy needed for deep convection is on the rise with greater heat and moisture in the lower tropical troposphere but that this energy remains untapped when air pressure is high. Accordingly, tropical cyclone formation is becoming less common but those that do form are likely to reach extreme intensities from the discharge of stored energy. These thermodynamic changes to the environment most significantly influence the upper portion of extreme typhoon intensities indicating that super typhoons are likely to be stronger at the expense of overall tropical cyclone occurrences in the western North Pacific.

  14. Growth of trees on permafrost: habitat driven response to climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryukhanova, Marina; Fonti, Patrick; Kirdyanov, Alexander; Saurer, Matthias; Siegwolf, Rolf; Pochebit, Natalia; Sidorova, Olga; Prokushkin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    Global change is expected to alter boreal forest conditions with far reaching consequences for tree growth in these ecosystems. Within this study we aimed at determining which limiting factors control tree-growth on permafrost under different site conditions. A tree-ring multi-proxy characterisation of mature Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. from a continuous permafrost zone of Siberia (Russia, 64°18' N, 100°11' E) was used to identify the physiological principle of responses related to the plant-soil system. Tree-ring width (1975-2009), carbon and oxygen stable isotopes, and xylem structural characteristics (2000-2009) indicated that an increased depth of the soil active layer favors a better exploitation of the available resources. Our study used a mechanistic description of expected soil thermo-hydrological changes associated with a detailed comparison of tree growth responses, and supplied possible scenarios of northern larch stands development under projected climate change and permafrost degradation. By using a "space for time" approach along a 100 m long transect characterized by distinct permafrost regimes combined with measurements of physiological and structural tree responses, it become possible to propose a mechanism responsible for the differing climatic-growth responses. The results obtained indicate global warming to promote large increases in tree productivity of permafrost larch stands with a shift from a cold to a water limited environment. This work was supported by the SNSF (VG IZ76Z0_141967/1, SCOPES IZ73Z0_128035) and grant form the President of the Russian Federation for young scientists 5498.2012.4.

  15. Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits

  16. Epidemiology: Malaria in a warmer West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Jones, A. E.

    2016-11-01

    Malaria risk in West Africa is expected to fall (western region) or remain the same (eastern region) in response to climate change over the twenty-first century. This is primarily due to extreme temperature conditions projected under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

  17. Projected Impact of Urban Growth on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, Federico; Murgante, Beniamino; Martellozzo, Federico

    2017-04-01

    Human activities on land use such as intensive agricultural techniques and urbanization are generating a number of social and economic benefit for contemporary society. Besides, these phenomena are one of the most significant causes of Land Degradation. Firstly, intensive agriculture is on the one hand creating an advantage in the short-period in terms of food production, while on the other is producing serious long-period problems in terms of loss of ecosystem services, including some important for agriculture itself. Secondly, the rapid growth of urban areas in recent decades is generating deep environmental issues. The World Urbanization Prospect by the United Nations (UN) shows that more than half of the world's population today (54%) lives in urban areas. This figure was only 30% in 1950, and estimates are that it will rise to 66% by 2050. Urban growth is responsible for the increase of air pollution, waste production, energy consumption, and land take. Moreover, the expansion of urban areas is making the problem of urban heat islands more relevant, and studies are proving how land cover changes are among the main factors that affect local microclimates. Consequently, territorial planning will play an important role in the fight to mitigate the effects of climate change, as land cover has a significant impact on the energy exchanges between the earth and the atmosphere. This study couples urban growth simulation models based on cellular automata to multiple linear regression techniques that are used to formulate equations for predicting the effects of simulated urban development on soil surface temperature. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of the Italian national territory, considering various alternative scenarios of land use changes and of their impact on local surface temperatures. The results show that the areas with the greatest urban pressure might be subject to significant climatic changes due to the increased impact of urban heat

  18. Evidence for warmer event from quartz grains in the soil of Grove Mountains, East Antarctica

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Xin; Li Xiaoli; Liu Xiaohan; Zhang Ru-fan

    2005-01-01

    The cold desert soil has been discovered at first time in southern ridgeof Mount Harding, Grove Mountains of interior East Antarctica Ice Sheet. Based on the micro structural observation, dominant characteristics of quartz grains include: distinct surface stria and fractures, and clean features of frost action at both of crystal margins and micro crannies of quartz grains. These features show a pedogenesis environment of few water, short transportation and frost action, revealing a warmer climatic event existed in this region.

  19. The Future of Tourism: Can Tourism Growth and Climate Policy be Reconciled? A Climate Change Mitigation Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gössling, S.; Hall, C.M.; Peeters, P.M.; Scott, D.

    2010-01-01

    Tourism is an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Emissions growth in the sector is in substantial conflict with global climate policy goals that seek to mitigate climate change through deep emission reductions. This article discusses the role of various tourism s

  20. Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

    2013-03-01

    Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change

  1. Behind the Curtain: Keeping Surgical Patients Warmer Fights Infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cleveland Clinic, Ohio Photo courtesy of NIGMS Keeping Surgical Patients Warmer Fights Infection As recently as the mid- ... His research led to a new conclusion: Keep surgical patients warm. No new drugs, no fancy technology. Warming ...

  2. Climate Constraints on the Carbon Intensity of Economic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Narloch, U.

    2015-12-01

    Development and climate goals together constrain the carbon intensity of production. Using a simple and transparent model that represents committed CO2 emissions (i.e. those embedded in installed capital), we explore the carbon intensity of production related to new capital required for different temperature targets across several thousand scenarios. Future pathways consistent with the 2oC target which allow for continued GDP growth require early action to reduce carbon intensity of new production, and either (i) a short lifetime of energy and industry capital (e.g. early retrofit of coal power plants), or (ii) large negative emissions after 2050 (i.e. rapid development and dissemination of carbon capture and sequestration). To achieve the 2oC target, half of the scenarios indicate a carbon intensity of new production between 33 and 73 g CO2/ - much lower than the carbon intensities of the best performing countries today. The average lifespan of energy capital (especially power plants), and industry capital, are critical because they commit emissions far into the future and reduce the budget for new capital emissions. Each year of lifetime added to existing, carbon intensive capital, decreases the carbon intensity of new production required to meet a 2°C carbon budget by 1 to 1.5 g CO2/, and each year of delaying the start of mitigation decreases the required CO2 intensity of new production by 20 to 50 gCO2/$. Constraints on the carbon intensity of new production under a 3°C target are considerably relaxed relative to the 2°C target, but remain daunting in comparison to the carbon intensity of the global economy today. Figure Caption: The relationship between GDP per capita growth, lifetime of energy and industry capital and the required carbon intensity of new production 2013-2050 under a 2°C target.

  3. Tree growth response of Fokienia hodginsii to recent climate warming and drought in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Jiajia; Gou, Xiaohua; Deng, Yang; Zhang, Ruibo; Liu, Wenhuo; Zhang, Fen; Lu, Ming; Chen, Yao; Zheng, Wuji

    2017-09-01

    To date, few attempts have been made to assess the influence of climate change on forest ecosystems and on the relationship between tree growth and climate in humid areas of low latitudes. In this paper, we studied the response of tree growth and forest ecosystem to climate change by using Fokienia hodginsii tree-ring cores from the northern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, southwest of China. Tree growth correlates the highest (r = -0.64, p changing with time as revealed by a moving correlation analysis. Tree growth is significantly (p changed under different climate conditions. The meteorological data suggested that from 1961 to 1987 it was cold and wet in the study area and radial growth is limited by winter and spring temperatures. This restriction is weaker if the climate is appropriate in general. However, from 1988 to 2014, the combined effects of recent warming and decreasing precipitation have led to an increasing response of tree-ring width to drought. In addition, a large proportion of mature F. hodginsii mortality occurred from 2007 to 2013, which corresponds with a drastic reduction of radial growth (narrowest in recent 100 years). The recent drought, induced by decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, may have passed the threshold which F. hodginsii could tolerate, causing tree growth reduction, tree growth-climate relationship change, as well as catastrophic tree mortality. All these changes may lead to further responses of the local ecosystem to climate change which should be highly regarded.

  4. Vulnerability of Korean water resources to climate change and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, H; Franczyk, J; Im, E-S; Kwon, W-T; Bae, D-H; Jung, I-W

    2007-01-01

    Freshwater availability is affected by changes in climate and growth. We assessed the freshwater vulnerability for five major Korean river basins for 2015 and 2030. We used a regional climate model based on the IPCC SRES A2 scenario, US Geological Survey's Precipitation Rainfall Simulation Model, and population and industrial growth scenarios for impact assessment. The model simulation results suggest increasing spatial and temporal variations of water stress for the basins that are already developed. While freshwater is more vulnerable to growth scenarios than the climate change scenario, climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 10% in four major river basins by 2030. As the first national assessment of climate change, we suggest possible adaptive water resource management and policy strategies for reducing climate related risks in Korea.

  5. Water availability is the main climate driver of neotropical tree growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabien Wagner

    Full Text Available • Climate models for the coming century predict rainfall reduction in the Amazonian region, including change in water availability for tropical rainforests. Here, we test the extent to which climate variables related to water regime, temperature and irradiance shape the growth trajectories of neotropical trees. • We developed a diameter growth model explicitly designed to work with asynchronous climate and growth data. Growth trajectories of 205 individual trees from 54 neotropical species censused every 2 months over a 4-year period were used to rank 9 climate variables and find the best predictive model. • About 9% of the individual variation in tree growth was imputable to the seasonal variation of climate. Relative extractable water was the main predictor and alone explained more than 60% of the climate effect on tree growth, i.e. 5.4% of the individual variation in tree growth. Furthermore, the global annual tree growth was more dependent on the diameter increment at the onset of the rain season than on the duration of dry season. • The best predictive model included 3 climate variables: relative extractable water, minimum temperature and irradiance. The root mean squared error of prediction (0.035 mm x d(-1 was slightly above the mean value of the growth (0.026 mm x d(-1. • Amongst climate variables, we highlight the predominant role of water availability in determining seasonal variation in tree growth of neotropical forest trees and the need to include these relationships in forest simulators to test, in silico, the impact of different climate scenarios on the future dynamics of the rainforest.

  6. Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

    2012-01-01

    Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables

  7. A third option for climate policy within potential limits to growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.

    2017-02-01

    Climate change has revived debates around the concept of limits to growth, 45 years after it was first proposed. Many citizens, scientists and politicians fear that stringent climate policy will harm economic growth. Some are anti-growth, whereas others believe green growth is compatible with a transition to a low-carbon economy. As the window to curb warming at 2 °C closes, this debate will intensify. This Review critically reflects on both positions, providing an overview of existing literature on the growth versus climate debate. Both positions are argued here to jeopardize environmental or social goals. A third position, labelled an 'agrowth' strategy, is proposed to depolarize the debate and reduce resistance to climate policies.

  8. Tree growth responding to climate changes%树木生长对气候变化的响应研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴秀臣; 裴婷婷; 李小雁; 刘鸿雁

    2016-01-01

    Response of tree growth to climate changes could have critical effects on regional vegetation dynamics,terrestrial biogeochemical cycles, local climate feedbacks and human well-being. Changes in spatiotemporal pattern in tree growth were closely coupled with past climate changes,increased extreme events and disturbances.Characteristics of climate changes during past decades were summarized.Responses of tree growth to climate change and potential feedbacks to climate system were reviewed.Knowledge gaps in tree growth response to climate changes were discussed.Possible future directions in this field were summarized. More effort should be paid to the spatial-temporal divergence in tree growth response to climate changes and climate feedbacks in different seasons and climate zones.Great concern should also be raised on emerging regional tree growth die-off and underlying mechanisms.Additionally,there tends to be an urgent need to identify effect of wide-spread increase in both occurrence and intensity of extreme events (e.g.,global-change-type drought and heat waves)and disturbances (e.g.,fire,pest,etc.)on tree growth and the possible underlying threshold-based nonlinear processes.Synthetically,combination of ground-truth observations at different time-scale,remote sensing,and land-surface models could reasonably improve our understandings of tree growth response to climate changes on different scales and ability to predict future vegetation dynamics in a warmer,and more extreme world.%树木生长对气候变化的响应将深刻影响区域植被动态、陆地生态系统生物地化循环、气候反馈及其人类福祉。持续的气候变暖、极端气候事件及自然和人为干扰的增加深刻地影响树木生长动态的时空格局。本文综述了近几十年全球气候变化的整体概况,着重探讨了气候变化对树木生长的影响机制以及树木生长对气候系统的反馈,并就树木生长响应气候变化研

  9. Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) and climate change: the effect of CO2 concentration, temperature, and water deficit on growth and reproduction of two biotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Thi; Bajwa, Ali Ahsan; Navie, Sheldon; O'Donnell, Chris; Adkins, Steve

    2017-04-01

    Climate change will have a considerable impact upon the processes that moderate weed invasion, in particular to that of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.). This study evaluated the performance of two Australian biotypes of parthenium weed under a range of environmental conditions including soil moisture (100 and 50% of field capacity), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (390 and 550 ppm), and temperature (35/20 and 30/15 °C/day/night). Measurements were taken upon growth, reproductive output, seed biology (fill, viability and dormancy) and soil seed longevity. Parthenium weed growth and seed output were significantly increased under the elevated CO2 concentration (550 ppm) and in the cooler (30/15 °C) and wetter (field capacity) conditions. However, elevated CO2 concentration could not promote growth or seed output when the plants were grown under the warmer (35/20 °C) and wetter conditions. Warm temperatures accelerated the growth of parthenium weed, producing plants with greater height biomass but with a shorter life span. Warm temperatures also affected the reproductive output by promoting both seed production and fill, and promoting seed longevity. Dryer soil conditions (50% of field capacity) also promoted the reproductive output, but did not retain high seed fill or promote seed longevity. Therefore, the rising temperatures, the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and the longer periods of drought predicted under climate change scenarios are likely to substantially enhance the growth and reproductive output of these two Australian parthenium weed biotypes. This may facilitate the further invasion of this noxious weed in tropical and sub-tropical natural and agro-ecosystems.

  10. Growth-climate relationships across topographic gradients in the northern Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, S.F.; D'Amato, A.W.; Kolka, R.K.; Bolstad, P.V.; Sebestyen, S.D.; Bradford, John B.

    2016-01-01

    Climatic conditions exert important control over the growth, productivity, and distribution of forests, and characterizing these relationships is essential for understanding how forest ecosystems will respond to climate change. We used dendrochronological methods to develop climate–growth relationships for two dominant species, Populus tremuloides (quaking aspen) and Pinus resinosa (red pine), in the upper Great Lakes region to understand how climate and water availability influence annual forest productivity. Trees were sampled along a topographic gradient at the Marcell Experimental Forest (Minnesota, USA) to assess growth response to variations in temperature and different water availability metrics (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), cumulative moisture index (CMI), and soil water storage). Climatic variables were able to explain 33–58% of the variation in annual growth (as measured by ring-width increment) for quaking aspen and 37–74% of the variation for red pine. Climate–growth relationships were influenced by topography for quaking aspen but not for red pine. Annual ring growth for quaking aspen decreased with June CMI on ridges, decreased with temperature in the November prior to the growing season on sideslopes, and decreased with June PET on toeslopes. Red pine growth increased with increasing July PET across all topographic positions. These results indicate the sensitivity of both quaking aspen and red pine to local climate and show several vulnerabilities of these species to shifts in water supply and temperature because of climate change.

  11. Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, Chenyao; Fraga, Helder; Ieperen, van W.; Andrade Santos, João

    2017-01-01

    Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water

  12. Reconstruction of late Holocene climate based on tree growth and mechanistic hierarchical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, John; Hooten, Mevin B.; Pederson, Neil; Tingley, Martin; Bishop, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    Reconstruction of pre-instrumental, late Holocene climate is important for understanding how climate has changed in the past and how climate might change in the future. Statistical prediction of paleoclimate from tree ring widths is challenging because tree ring widths are a one-dimensional summary of annual growth that represents a multi-dimensional set of climatic and biotic influences. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework using a nonlinear, biologically motivated tree ring growth model to jointly reconstruct temperature and precipitation in the Hudson Valley, New York. Using a common growth function to describe the response of a tree to climate, we allow for species-specific parameterizations of the growth response. To enable predictive backcasts, we model the climate variables with a vector autoregressive process on an annual timescale coupled with a multivariate conditional autoregressive process that accounts for temporal correlation and cross-correlation between temperature and precipitation on a monthly scale. Our multi-scale temporal model allows for flexibility in the climate response through time at different temporal scales and predicts reasonable climate scenarios given tree ring width data.

  13. Phenology and growth of European trees in relation to climate change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, K.

    1996-01-01

    Research topicsThe relationships between climate and both phenology and growth of some important European tree species were studied to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on trees and forests in Europe. In order to make such assessments, insight is required on the mecha

  14. Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walsum, van P.E.V.; Supit, I.

    2012-01-01

    Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, acc

  15. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walsum, van P.E.V.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The couplin

  16. Phenology and growth of European trees in relation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, K.

    1996-01-01

    Research topics

    The relationships between climate and both phenology and growth of some important European tree species were studied to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on trees and forests in Europe. In order to make such assessments, insight is

  17. The Impact of a Warmer Mediterranean Sea on Central European Summer Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Semenov, Vladimir; Maraun, Douglas; Latif, Mojib; Tilinina, Natalia

    2014-05-01

    Central European climate is influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, which experienced a strong increase in sea surface temperature (SST) during the last four decades. One example of extreme weather events are cyclones following the "Vb" pathway. These cyclones are generated over the Mediterranean Sea and travel northeastwards around the Alps and then hit countries like Poland and Germany. The cyclones carry large amounts of moisture and cause extreme precipitation, and subsequently flooding, particularly in summer. These floods, such as the Elbe flood in 2002, have devastating societal impacts and also influence ecosystems. To analyse the potential impact of increased Mediterranean SST on extreme precipitation in Europe, a series of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ECHAM5 has been carried out. ECHAM5 was run at high horizontal resolution (T159) and integrated for 40 years in each experiment. The control run is forced by SST and sea ice concentration (SIC) climatology derived from 1970-1999. A warmer climate is simulated by using global climatological SST and SIC from 2000-2012. To disentangle the impact of the Mediterranean Sea, an additional simulation was performed with the same global SST and SIC as in the control run, but with the warmer 2000-2012 SST climatology restricted to the Mediterranean and Black Seas. 20-season return levels were derived as a measure of extreme precipitation for daily as well as five day precipitation in JJA (June, July, August). These return levels are estimated as quantiles of a stationary generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution. Although the increase in the number of Vb cyclones is only modest, precipitation return levels in JJA show an increase along the Vb cyclone track, for daily (up to approximately 63 %) as well as for five day (up to approximately 76 %) precipitation extremes. This increase can be attributed to the warmer Mediterranean Sea, as it is observed in both the globally warmer and

  18. 不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估%Changes in Climate Extremes over China in a 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C Warmer World

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈晓晨; 徐影; 姚遥

    2015-01-01

    Due to human-induced global warming, global Average Surface Air Temperature (ASAT) will reach certain thresholds with reference to the pre-industrial period. Quantitative assessments of climate extremes across China when reaching these thresholds are important indicators in disaster risk management and policymaking. In this study, based on outputs of 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), 27 climate-extreme indices computed with a consistent methodology are used to quantify the changes in the mean and extreme climate across China when the 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C thresholds under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios are exceeded. In general, the ASAT warms faster over China than the global mean in the 21st century. Extreme warm events (e.g., warm nights, warm days, and tropical nights) increase greatly, while extreme cold events (e.g., cold nights, cold days, and frost days) decrease. When the 4°C threshold is exceeded, warm nights index (spatially averaged over China) are projected to show an increase of about 49.9% relative to the reference period. Accompanied by the increase in global mean temperature, the northern part of China will see more precipitation when the 2°C threshold is exceeded. Extreme precipitation shows obvious intensification in both frequency and magnitude when different temperature thresholds are exceeded. China is dominated by lengthening heavy and very heavy precipitation days and increasing maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount increases by 12.5 mm and 17.0 mm when the global ASAT becomes 3°C and 4°C warmer, respectively. The changes are found to be more pronounced under higher temperature thresholds. Southwest China, however, exhibits larger changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation than other regions.%本文基于耦合模式

  19. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  20. Climate Change Mitigation, Economic Growth and the Distribution of Income

    OpenAIRE

    G.A. Meagher; Adams, P. D.; Felicity Pang

    2014-01-01

    In October 2008, the Australian Government released a major report: Australia's Low Pollution Future: The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation. In that report, various scenarios are used to explore the potential economic effects of climate mitigation policy in Australia. One of the scenarios, designated CPRS-5, a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) aims to reduce emissions to 5 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020. It is consistent with stabilisation at around 550 parts per million of ca...

  1. Ambiguity of large scale temperature reconstructions from artificial tree growth in millennial climate simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Bothe, Oliver

    2012-01-01

    The ambiguity of temperature reconstructions is assessed using pseudo tree growth series in the virtual reality of two simulations of the climate of the last millennium. The simple, process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VS-Lite) code calculates tree growth responses controlled by a limited number of climatic parameters. Growth limitation by different ambient climate conditions allows for possible nonlinearity and non-stationarity in the pseudo tree growth series. Statistical reconstructions of temperature are achieved from simulated tree growth for random selections of pseudo-proxy locations by simple local regression and composite plus scaling techniques to address additional ambiguities in paleoclimate reconstructions besides the known uncertainty and shortcomings of the reconstruction methods. A systematic empirical evaluation shows that the interrelations between simulated target and reconstructed temperatures undergo strong variations with possibly pronounced misrepresentations of temperatures. Thus (i) c...

  2. Attachment dimensions and group climate growth in a sample of women seeking treatment for eating disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illing, Vanessa; Tasca, Giorgio A; Balfour, Louise; Bissada, Hany

    2011-01-01

    Adult attachment and group process research are emerging areas of research for treating eating disorders. In this study, we examined several aspects of group processes: the weekly growth of group therapy climate, the relationship between group climate growth and outcomes, and the impact of the group on individual experiences of group climate. Further, we assessed the relationship between adult attachment dimensions and these group processes. Women (n = 264) diagnosed with an eating disorder completed attachment scales pre-treatment, eating disorder symptom scales pre- and post-treatment, and group climate scales weekly during treatment. Treatment consisted of a specialized eating disorders group-based day hospital program with rolling admissions. Engaged group climate increased and Avoidance group climate decreased across weeks of treatment. Engaged group climate growth was associated with improved eating disorder symptoms post-treatment. Higher attachment avoidance at pre-treatment was related to lower Engaged group climate at week 1, and was related to a greater impact of the group on the individual's experience of group engagement. Clinicians might improve group processes and outcomes by tailoring interventions to individuals' attachment avoidance when treating women for eating disorders.

  3. Thermoregulation: incubators, radiant warmers, artificial skins, and body hoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBlanc, M H

    1991-09-01

    Keeping babies warm whether using incubator or radiant warmers is important in optimizing their chances of survival. Many design changes have occurred in devices for keeping babies warm, while few controlled studies using clinically important end points have been conducted to assess these changes. Radiant warmers produce larger evaporative heat and water losses and slightly higher basal metabolic rate than incubators. The clinical significance of the higher metabolic rate is uncertain. The water losses create an additional problem in managing infants under radiant warmers. The use of hoods made of thin plastic films to raise local humidity and reduce evaporative water loss helps control this problem. In incubators, humidity may be necessary to provide a warm enough environment for the most immature infants. Artificial skins as yet have not supplanted body hoods for this purpose. Both incubators and radiant warmers produce temperature instability when used as skin servocontrolled devices. There are, however, no data currently available to say how much thermal instability can be well tolerated by a baby. Too much thermal instability produces apnea and increased mortality. Air servocontrolling an incubator reduces environmental temperature instability.

  4. Climate is a stronger driver of tree and forest growth rates than soil and disturbance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toledo, M.; Poorter, L.; Peña-Claros, M.; Alarcón, A.; Balcázar, J.; Leaño, C.; Licona, J.C.; Llanque, O.; Vroomans, V.; Zuidema, P.; Bongers, F.

    2011-01-01

    1. Essential resources such as water, nutrients and light vary over space and time and plant growth rates are expected to vary accordingly. We examined the effects of climate, soil and logging disturbances on diameter growth rates at the tree and stand level, using 165 1-ha permanent sample plots di

  5. What are the main climate drivers for shrub growth in Northeastern Siberian tundra?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Blok

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Deciduous shrubs are expected to rapidly expand in the Arctic during the coming decades due to climate warming. A transition towards more shrub-dominated tundra may have large implications for the regional surface energy balance, permafrost stability and carbon storage capacity, with consequences for the global climate system. However, little information is available on the natural long-term shrub growth response to climatic variability. Our aim was to determine the climate factor and time period that are most important to annual shrub growth in our research site in NE-Siberia. Therefore, we determined annual radial growth rates in Salix pulchra and Betula nana shrubs by measuring ring widths. We constructed shrub ring width chronologies and compared growth rates to regional climate and remotely sensed greenness data. Early summer temperature was the most important factor influencing ring width of S. pulchra (Pearson's r=0.73, p<0.001 and B. nana (Pearson's r=0.46, p<0.001. No effect of winter precipitation on shrub growth was observed. In contrast, summer precipitation of the previous year correlated positively with B. nana ring width (r=0.42, p<0.01, suggesting that wet summers facilitate shrub growth in the following growing season. S. pulchra ring width correlated positively with peak summer NDVI, despite the small coverage of S. pulchra shrubs (<5% surface cover in our research area. We provide the first climate-growth study on shrubs for Northeast Siberia, the largest tundra region in the world. We show that two deciduous shrub species with markedly different growth forms have a similar growth response to changes in climate. The obtained shrub growth response to climate variability in the past increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying current shrub expansion, which is required to predict future climate-driven tundra vegetation shifts.

  6. What are the main climate drivers for shrub growth in Northeastern Siberian tundra?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Blok

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Deciduous shrubs are expected to rapidly expand in the Arctic during the coming decades due to climate warming. A transition towards more shrub-dominated tundra may have large implications for the regional surface energy balance, permafrost stability and carbon storage capacity, with consequences for the global climate system. However, little information is available on the natural long-term shrub growth response to climatic variability. Our aim was to determine the climate factor and time period that are most important to annual shrub growth in our research site in NE-Siberia. Therefore, we determined annual radial growth rates in Salix pulchra and Betula nana shrubs by measuring ring widths. We constructed shrub ring width chronologies and compared growth rates to regional climate and remotely sensed greenness data. Early summer temperature was the most important factor influencing ring width of S. pulchra (Pearson's r = 0.73, p < 0.001 and B. nana (Pearson's r = 0.46, p < 0.001. No effect of winter precipitation on shrub growth was observed. In contrast, summer precipitation of the previous year correlated positively with B. nana ring width (Pearson's r = 0.42, p < 0.01, suggesting that wet summers facilitate shrub growth in the following growing season. S. pulchra ring width correlated positively with peak summer NDVI, despite the small coverage of S. pulchra shrubs (< 5 % surface cover in our research area. We provide the first climate-growth study on shrubs for Northeast Siberia, the largest tundra region in the world. We show that two deciduous shrub species with markedly different growth forms have a similar growth response to changes in climate. The obtained shrub growth response to climate variability in the past increases our understanding of the mechanisms underlying current shrub expansion, which is required to predict future climate

  7. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messaoud, Yassine; Chen, Han Y H

    2011-02-16

    Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but

  8. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yassine Messaoud

    Full Text Available Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S. in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation. As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree

  9. Economic growth, climate change, biodiversity loss: distributive justice for the global north and south.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosales, Jon

    2008-12-01

    Economic growth-the increase in production and consumption of goods and services-must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons-some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs-how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate-change regime based on principles of equity. An equity-based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap-and-trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity-based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.

  10. Radial growth of Qilian juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Qin

    Full Text Available There is controversy regarding the limiting climatic factor for tree radial growth at the alpine treeline on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we collected 594 increment cores from 331 trees, grouped within four altitude belts spanning the range 3550 to 4020 m.a.s.l. on a single hillside. We have developed four equivalent ring-width chronologies and shown that there are no significant differences in their growth-climate responses during 1956 to 2011 or in their longer-term growth patterns during the period AD 1110-2011. The main climate influence on radial growth is shown to be precipitation variability. Missing ring analysis shows that tree radial growth at the uppermost treeline location is more sensitive to climate variation than that at other elevations, and poor tree radial growth is particularly linked to the occurrence of serious drought events. Hence water limitation, rather than temperature stress, plays the pivotal role in controlling the radial growth of Sabina przewalskii Kom. at the treeline in this region. This finding contradicts any generalisation that tree-ring chronologies from high-elevation treeline environments are mostly indicators of temperature changes.

  11. Radial growth of Qilian juniper on the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and potential climate associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Chun; Yang, Bao; Melvin, Thomas M; Fan, Zexin; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R

    2013-01-01

    There is controversy regarding the limiting climatic factor for tree radial growth at the alpine treeline on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we collected 594 increment cores from 331 trees, grouped within four altitude belts spanning the range 3550 to 4020 m.a.s.l. on a single hillside. We have developed four equivalent ring-width chronologies and shown that there are no significant differences in their growth-climate responses during 1956 to 2011 or in their longer-term growth patterns during the period AD 1110-2011. The main climate influence on radial growth is shown to be precipitation variability. Missing ring analysis shows that tree radial growth at the uppermost treeline location is more sensitive to climate variation than that at other elevations, and poor tree radial growth is particularly linked to the occurrence of serious drought events. Hence water limitation, rather than temperature stress, plays the pivotal role in controlling the radial growth of Sabina przewalskii Kom. at the treeline in this region. This finding contradicts any generalisation that tree-ring chronologies from high-elevation treeline environments are mostly indicators of temperature changes.

  12. Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempereur, Morine; Limousin, Jean-Marc; Guibal, Frédéric; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Rambal, Serge; Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent

    2017-01-01

    A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40-year tree ring record and a 30-year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (-10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (-26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving-window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate-growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the 'climate hiatus'. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone. © 2016 John

  13. Relationships between climate and growth of Gymnocypris selincuoensis in the Tibetan Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Juan; Chen, Yifeng; He, Dekui; Ding, Chengzhi

    2015-04-01

    The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly evident in the Tibetan Plateau, represented by glaciers retreating and lakes expanding, but the biological response to climate change by plateau-lake ecosystems is poorly known. In this study, we applied dendrochronology methods to develop a growth index chronology with otolith increment widths of Selincuo naked carp (Gymnocypris selincuoensis), which is an endemic species in Lake Selincuo (4530 m), and investigated the relationships between fish growth and climate variables (regional and global) in the last three decades. A correlation analysis and principle component regression analysis between regional climate factors and the growth index chronology indicated that the growth of G. selincuoensis was significantly and positively correlated with length of the growing season and temperature-related variables, particularly during the growing season. Most of global climate variables, which are relevant to the Asian monsoon and the midlatitude westerlies, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and North America Pattern, showed negative but not significant correlations with the annual growth of Selincuo naked carp. This may have resulted from the high elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the high mountains surrounding this area. In comparison, the Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO) negatively affected the growth of G. selincuoensis. The reason maybe that enhancement of the PDO can lead to cold conditions in this area. Taken together, the results indicate that the Tibetan Plateau fish has been affected by global climate change, particularly during the growing season, and global climate change likely has important effects on productivity of aquatic ecosystems in this area.

  14. Long-term growth trajectories in a changing climate: disentangling age from size effects in old Fagus trees from contrasting bioclimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca

    2016-04-01

    Apennines, fast-growing young trees showed a precocious slow-down of their increments, following their fast size/crown development. On the Alps, wetter climatic conditions seemed to afford the widespread maintenance of positive increments along size development. At the individual level, high growth variability exists among canopy trees in old-growth forests. In some cases, old trees showed recent BAI values comparable to young ones. However, increasing patterns are not necessarily the norm, especially in the Apennines. In a recent, common period marked by warmer/drier conditions, 55-60% displayed no significant BAI trend. In the drought-prone Apennines, BAI declined in 28% of trees. Size matters when assessing climate impact on Apennines growth trends: among larger trees (DBH ≥ 65 cm), most trends were insignificant and negative, and oldest trees showed the strongest declines. At the southern range edge of beech, the recurrent and intense droughts of the last decades have caused important growth declines, probably accompanied by synchronous mortality pulses among large trees. Bioclimatic conditions, climate variation and stem age interact with size to explain the complexity of tree growth performance, and all these factors should be taken into account when modelling long-term forest functioning.

  15. Influence of climate on radial growth of Pinus cembra within the alpine timberline ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberhuber, Walter

    2004-03-01

    Radial growth variability and response to interannual climate variation of Cembran pine (Pinus cembra L.) were studied in the timberline ecotone on Mt. Patscherkofel (2246 m a.s.l.). The study area, which is in the inner alpine dry region of the Central Austrian Alps, is characterized by a continental climate with minimum precipitation in winter (about 150 mm during December-February) and frequent occurrence of warm dry winds (Föhn) in early spring. The hypothesis that spatial and temporal variability of radial growth is caused by site-related differences in sensitivity to winter stress (i.e., desiccation) was examined by applying dendroclimatological techniques. Ordination methods applied to tree ring time series revealed that spatial variability in radial growth is influenced by the local site factors elevation and slope aspect. Growth-climate relationships were explored using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients and multiple regression analysis. Radial growth at the timberline was positively correlated with temperature in July and was also strongly correlated with mild temperatures in the previous autumn and high precipitation in winter (January-March). At the tree line, temperatures in the previous autumn and precipitation in late winter (March) also controlled radial growth, whereas July temperature was not significantly correlated with ring width. Because previous autumn temperature and winter precipitation were the main growth-determining factors at the timberline and the tree line, and both of these climate variables are known to influence susceptibility of trees to winter stress, the results support the working hypothesis. Analysis of climatic conditions in extreme growth years confirmed the high sensitivity of tree ring growth to precipitation in late winter (March) at the tree line plots. Furthermore, extent of growth reduction and release varied spatially and temporarily, with south- and west-facing stands showing a higher sensitivity to

  16. Climate dependency of tree growth suppressed by acid deposition effects on soils in Northwest Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, G.B.; Lapenis, A.G.; Berggren, D.; Aparin, B.F.; Smith, K.T.; Shortle, W.C.; Bailey, S.W.; Varlyguin, D.L.; Babikov, B.

    2005-01-01

    Increased tree growth in temperate and boreal forests has been proposed as a direct consequence of a warming climate. Acid deposition effects on nutrient availability may influence the climate dependency of tree growth, however. This study presents an analysis of archived soil samples that has enabled changes in soil chemistry to be tracked with patterns of tree growth through the 20th century. Soil samples collected in 1926, 1964, and 2001, near St. Petersburg, Russia, showed that acid deposition was likely to have decreased root-available concentrations of Ca (an essential element) and increased root-available concentrations of Al (an inhibitor of Ca uptake). These soil changes coincided with decreased diameter growth and a suppression of climate-tree growth relationships in Norway spruce. Expected increases in tree growth from climate warming may be limited by decreased soil fertility in regions of northern and eastern Europe, and eastern North America, where Ca availability has been reduced by acidic deposition. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

  17. Climate-driven speedup of alpine treeline forest growth in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian

    2015-02-01

    Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics.

  18. Water temperature and fish growth: otoliths predict growth patterns of a marine fish in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rountrey, Adam N; Coulson, Peter G; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Meekan, Mark

    2014-08-01

    Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long-term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed-effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long-lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi-decadal biochronology (1952-2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries.

  19. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei; Elison Timm, Oliver; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

    2015-12-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  20. Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wei; Timm, Oliver Elison; Zhang, Chunxi; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

  1. Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackas, David L.; Batten, Sonia; Trudel, Marc

    2007-10-01

    The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how “similar” zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (∣ r∣ = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single “warm-and-low-productivity” vs. “cool-and-high-productivity” component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative (“cool” and “productive”) or near zero except positive in the El Niño years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and

  2. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Irfan Ashraf

    Full Text Available Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model. Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2 5-year(-1 and volume: 0.0008 m(3 5-year(-1. Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2 5-year(-1 and 0.0393 m(3 5-year(-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence

  3. Big emitters: how growth in consumption drives climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2009-12-15

    It seems obvious that the more people there are on the planet, the more the pressure on planetary resources and the larger the emissions of greenhouse gases. So it also seems obvious that population growth must be a major driver of global warming. But it is just as obvious that very poor households contribute very little to greenhouse gas emissions. So if most of the world's population growth is among very poor households, population growth is not the culprit. The greatest human driver of global warming is the number of consumers on the planet and their consumption level. Individuals and households contribute to global warming by consuming goods and services that cause greenhouse gas emissions – for instance, by owning a refrigerator or a car. Through this they are responsible for all the fossil fuels that go into making, distributing, advertising, selling, using and disposing of it.

  4. The effect of the pathway to a two degrees warmer world on the regional temperature change of Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathrine Fox Maule

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate if the pathway to reach a 2 degree warmer world influences the regional climate in Europe at the time of 2 degrees of global warming above the pre-industrial level. We have investigated this using climate change data from ensembles of both Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models. We compare the change of regional temperature in Europe to the global temperature change for different emission scenarios, following the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP, to see if the pathway has any influence. We find that there is a small but significant difference in the regional temperature change, but the effect is small compared to internal variability on the timescales involved in reaching +2 degrees for the investigated emission scenarios. From an adaptation point of view, reaching +2 degrees as slowly as possible will obviously allow for a longer time period to implement adaptation measures to mitigate the effect of climate change.

  5. Growth and reproduction respond differently to climate in three Neotropical tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfaro-Sánchez, Raquel; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Wright, S Joseph; Camarero, J Julio

    2017-06-01

    The response of tropical forests to anthropogenic climate change is critically important to future global carbon budgets, yet remains highly uncertain. Here, we investigate how precipitation, temperature, solar radiation and dry- and wet-season lengths are related to annual tree growth, flower production, and fruit production in three moist tropical forest tree species using long-term datasets from tree rings and litter traps in central Panama. We also evaluated how growth, flower, and fruit production were interrelated. We found that growth was positively correlated with wet-season precipitation in all three species: Jacaranda copaia (r = 0.63), Tetragastris panamensis (r = 0.39) and Trichilia tuberculata (r = 0.39). Flowering and fruiting in Jacaranda were negatively related to current-year dry-season rainfall and positively related to prior-year dry-season rainfall. Flowering in Tetragastris was negatively related to current-year annual mean temperature while Trichilia showed no significant relationships of reproduction with climate. Growth was significantly related to reproduction only in Tetragastris, where it was positively related to previous year fruiting. Our results suggest that tree growth in moist tropical forest tree species is generally reduced by drought events such as those associated with strong El Niño events. In contrast, interannual variation in reproduction is not generally associated with growth and has distinct and species-specific climate responses, with positive effects of El Niño events in some species. Understanding these contrasting climate effects on tree growth and reproduction is critical to predicting changes in tropical forest dynamics and species composition under climate change.

  6. Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

  7. Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

    2016-01-19

    Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

  8. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2015-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  9. Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Yu Chang

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

  10. The Effect of No Agricultural Productivity Growth on Future Land Use and Climate through Biogeophysical Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Jones, C.

    2012-12-01

    Future land use and the consequent land cover change will have a significant impact on future climate through biogeophysical (albedo, surface roughness and latent heat transfer, etc.) as well as biogeochemical (greenhouse gas emissions etc.) mechanisms. One of the major determinants of the extent of land use induced land cover change is the agricultural productivity growth within the socio-economic models used for developing the RCP scenarios. There are considerable uncertainties in the size of agricultural productivity under climate change, as yields are projected to vary spatially in signal and strength. Previous climate modeling work has considered the impacts to the carbon cycle of different levels of agricultural productivity growth, but has failed to consider the biogeophysical effects of the land use induced land cover change on climate. Here we examine the climate impacts of the assumption of agricultural productivity growth and business as usual land use. The effects are considered through the biogeophysical land use induced land cover change, using the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2. The model simulations use the set biogeochemical climate forcing of the RCP 4.5 scenario, but the biogeophysical land use change specification is altered over a 100 year simulation. Simulations are run with combinations of no land use change; standard RCP 4.5 land use change; business as usual land use change; and zero agricultural productivity growth. The key effect of no agricultural productivity growth is that more cropland is required to feed the same population, necessitating cropland expansion. The expansion of cropland and consequent deforestation increases the albedo and gives an extensive cooling effect in the northern hemisphere (up to 2°C). Differences in global mean temperature between the zero agricultural productivity growth with business as usual land use change specified run and the standard RCP 4.5 run are -0.2°C by 2040 and -0.7°C by 2100. There is

  11. Sustaining Economic Growth in China under Energy and Climate Security Constraints

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xuedu Lu; Jiahua Pan; Ying Chen

    2006-01-01

    After over a quarter of a century of high economic growth, there is no sign that China will slow its pace of economic development. In the meantime, domestic energy security and international climate security have become of increasing concern given China's growth patterns. In this paper, the authors look at the future prospects of growth of the economy,energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. For China as a developing country, energy security constitutes a more immediate and challenging constraint for China in meeting its development target than the problem of emission reduction. Energy efficiency and diversification have been actively pursued for addressing energy security issue but with positive co-benefit of climate security. International cooperation can promote both securities for a health growth of the economy.

  12. Assessment of Mould Growth for Library Buildings in Tropical Climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngah Abdul Wahab S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempt to give a brief insight into the importance of studying mould growth in library building that relates to human health and causes of material deterioration to library materials. It’s significant to conduct this research because no similar study has carried out for a library building in Malaysia. Recent literature on the topics reviews to gain insight into developing a theoretical framework and research method. Likewise, the study also supports through pilot study questionnaires with 30 respondents from two different university libraries. The finding revealed to further investigation and mould growth assessment to be conducted that useful in protecting library materials and users health effects through environmental control.

  13. Effects of ozone and climate on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) growth in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, D.L. (Washington Univ., Seattle, WA (United States)); Arbaugh, M.J.; Robinson, L.J. (United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Riverside, CA (United States))

    1993-01-01

    Long-term radial growth trends of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum) were studied in second-growth stands in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains to determine if there has been any impact from oxidant air pollution. Although ozone concentrations are relatively high at some locations, visible pollutant injury was not found in any trees. Time series of basal area increments are generally homogeneous within stands. Concurrent periods of increasing and decreasing growth can be found in stands throughout the Front Range, which indicates that there are temporal growth trends at the regional level. Most of these trends appear to be related to the effects of stand dynamics and climate. Correlation analysis with climatic variables indicates that soil moisture supply is the dominant factor controlling interannual variation of basal area growth. Palmer hydrological drought index is highly correlated (positively) with growth during the summer months; total precipitation in spring is positively correlated with growth, and mean temperature in spring is negatively correlated with growth. There are no recent changes in growth trends that might be associated with elevated levels of ambient ozone in the Front Range. 66 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Impact of Urban Growth on Surface Climate: A Case Study in Oran, Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, Lahouari; Safia, Abdelmounaine; Masek, Jeffrey; Peters-Lidars, Christaq; Imhoff, Marc L.

    2008-01-01

    We develop a land use map discriminating urban surfaces from other cover types over a semiarid region in North Africa and use it in a land surface model to assess the impact of urbanized land on surface energy, water and carbon balances. Unlike in temperate climates where urbanization creates a marked heat island effect, this effect is not strongly marked in semiarid regions. During summer, the urban class results in an additional warming of 1.45 C during daytime and 0.81 C at night compared to that simulated for needleleaf trees under similar climate conditions. Seasonal temperatures show urban areas warmer than their surrounding during summer and slightly cooler in winter. The hydrological cycle is practically "shut down" during summer and characterized by relatively large amount of runoff in winter. We estimate the annual amount of carbon uptake to 1.94 million metric tons with only 11.9% assimilated during the rainy season. However, if urbanization expands to reach 50% of the total area excluding forests, the annual total carbon uptake will decline by 35% and the July mean temperature would increase only 0.10 C, compared to current situation. In contrast, if urbanization expands to 50% of the total land excluding forests and croplands but all short vegetation is replaced by native broadleaf deciduous trees, the annual carbon uptake would increase 39% and the July mean temperature would decrease by 0.9 C, compared to current configuration. These results provide guidelines for urban planners and land use managers and indicate possibilities for mitigating the urban heat.

  15. Growth characteristics and response to climate change of Larix Miller tree-ring in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As one of the earliest species used in dendrochronological studies, Larix responds sensitively to climate change. In this study, nine larch species and one variety from eleven sites were collected to study the growth characteristics of tree-ring width using dendrochronological methods. Ten residual tree-ring chronologies were developed to analyze their relationships with regional standardized anomaly series by Pearson’s correlation analysis. The results suggest that most of the chronologies had significantly positive correlations with the mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in May. The spring temperature evidently limited the radial growth of the larch species without precipitation control. The largest mean tree-ring width was found in Himalayan Larch in Jilong, whereas Master Larch in Si’er reflected the smallest mean value. Both species presented little climate information in this study. Chinese, Potanin, and Tibetan larches are significantly correlated with climate change, implying a huge potential for climate history reconstruction. The elevation of the sampling sites appears to be an important condition for tree-ring growth of larches responding to climate factors.

  16. Water scarcity in the tropical Andes: population growth outweighs climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buytaert, W.; De Bièvre, B.

    2012-12-01

    Globally, water resources for cities are under increasing stress. Two main stressors are climate change and population growth, but evaluating their relative impact is difficult, especially because of the complex topology of water supply. This is especially true in the tropical Andes, which is a region with strong climatic gradients and topographical limits to water resources. In this study we present an evaluation of both stressors on water resources in a geospatial framework to identify gradients in water availability that may lead to conflicts over water use. We focus on 4 major cities in, or receiving water from the tropical Andes. A multi-model dataset of 19 climate models is used as input for a regional water balance model. Per capita water availability is evaluated along topographic gradients for the present, and for future scenarios of population growth and climate change. In all cases, the median projection of climate change suggests a relatively limited impact on water availability but uncertainties are large. Despite these uncertainties, we find that the expected demographic changes are very likely to outpace the impact of climate change on water availability and should therefore be the priority for local policy making. However, distinctive geospatial patterns characterize the supply systems of the studied cities, highlighting the need to analyse the topology of water supply within an ecosystem services context. Our approach is flexible enough to be extended to other regions, stressors and water resources topologies.

  17. Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Orangeville, L; Duchesne, L; Houle, D; Kneeshaw, D; Côté, B; Pederson, N

    2016-06-17

    High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  19. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  20. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over 4

  1. Assessing climate change effects on long-term forest development: adjusting growth, phenology, and seed production in a gap model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meer, van der P.J.; Jorritsma, I.T.M.; Kramer, K.

    2002-01-01

    The sensitivity of forest development to climate change is assessed using a gap model. Process descriptions in the gap model of growth, phenology, and seed production were adjusted for climate change effects using a detailed process-based growth modeland a regression analysis. Simulation runs over 4

  2. Influence of Climate on the Growth of Hybrid Poplar in Michigan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophan Chhin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the influence of climate on cumulative and interannual growth patterns of 18 full-sib families of hybrid poplars (Populus × smithii Boivin derived from different geographical locations (state counties of natural stands of aspen parents (trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. and bigtooth aspen (Populus grandidentata Michx.. The hybrids were subsequently planted in 1982 in southern mid-Michigan at Michigan State University (MSU Sandhill Research Area. Cumulative measures of hybrid poplar productivity (diameter, height, basal area, and stem volume in 2009 (28 years since plantation establishment were related via correlation analysis to geographical distances and climatic variables (temperature and precipitation between parental county locations and between parental locations and the plantation site. Tree-ring analysis methods (dendrochronology were also used to quantify the influence of climate (i.e., mean temperature and total precipitation at monthly and 3-month seasonal scales on interannual basal area growth rates of hybrid poplars. Analyses of cumulative measures of growth indicated a maternal effect: full-sib families had higher productivity if they had a maternal parent originating from a state county that was close to or had higher temperature (annual and summer and summer precipitation than corresponding parameters of the planting site. Principal component analysis indicated that 17 of the 18 full-sib families shared a large amount of common growth variation. Dendrochronological analyses of interannual growth-climate relationships indicated that growth was mainly affected by the degree of late summer to fall moisture stress in both the current and previous growth season, and the degree of winter harshness.

  3. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  4. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from tho

  5. 78 FR 61383 - Certain Thermal Support Devices For Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers, and Components...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-03

    ... COMMISSION Certain Thermal Support Devices For Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers, and Components... United States after importation of certain thermal support devices for infants, infant incubators, infant... certain thermal support devices for infants, infant incubators, infant warmers, and components thereof...

  6. 78 FR 54911 - Certain Thermal Support Devices for Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers and Components...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-06

    ... COMMISSION Certain Thermal Support Devices for Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers and Components.... International Trade Commission has received a complaint entitled Certain Thermal Support Devices for Infants, Infant Incubators, Infant Warmers and Components Thereof, DN 2976; the Commission is soliciting...

  7. Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

  8. Stand competition determines how different tree species will cope with a warming climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-de-Uña, Laura; Cañellas, Isabel; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

    2015-01-01

    Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in a variable manner

  9. Stand competition determines how different tree species will cope with a warming climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Fernández-de-Uña

    Full Text Available Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in

  10. Stand Competition Determines How Different Tree Species Will Cope with a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-de-Uña, Laura; Cañellas, Isabel; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo

    2015-01-01

    Plant-plant interactions influence how forests cope with climate and contribute to modulate species response to future climate scenarios. We analysed the functional relationships between growth, climate and competition for Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus faginea to investigate how stand competition modifies forest sensitivity to climate and simulated how annual growth rates of these species with different drought tolerance would change throughout the 21st century. Dendroecological data from stands subjected to thinning were modelled using a novel multiplicative nonlinear approach to overcome biases related to the general assumption of a linear relationship between covariates and to better mimic the biological relationships involved. Growth always decreased exponentially with increasing competition, which explained more growth variability than climate in Q. faginea and P. sylvestris. The effect of precipitation was asymptotic in all cases, while the relationship between growth and temperature reached an optimum after which growth declined with warmer temperatures. Our growth projections indicate that the less drought-tolerant P. sylvestris would be more negatively affected by climate change than the studied sub-Mediterranean oaks. Q. faginea and P. sylvestris mean growth would decrease under all the climate change scenarios assessed. However, P. sylvestris growth would decline regardless of the competition level, whereas this decrease would be offset by reduced competition in Q. faginea. Conversely, Q. pyrenaica growth would remain similar to current rates, except for the warmest scenario. Our models shed light on the nature of the species-specific interaction between climate and competition and yield important implications for management. Assuming that individual growth is directly related to tree performance, trees under low competition would better withstand the warmer conditions predicted under climate change scenarios but in a variable manner

  11. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Rocha, Adrian V; Calvin, Katherine; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L

    2014-01-01

    Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of

  12. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R.; Caldwell, Jamie M.; Fisher, Micah R.; Genco, Brandon M.; Running, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people. PMID:26061091

  13. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilo Mora

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5, suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation. Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

  14. Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora, Camilo; Caldwell, Iain R; Caldwell, Jamie M; Fisher, Micah R; Genco, Brandon M; Running, Steven W

    2015-06-01

    Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under "business as usual" (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world's terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world's population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.

  15. Changes in Climatic Factors Influencing the Growth Period of Corn in Fengjie County

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaozhen; MAO; Xinli; MOU; Chen; MA; Jiang; HUANG; Lin; YUAN

    2014-01-01

    Under the background of global climate change,we analyze the change tendency of average temperature and amount of precipitation influencing the corn’s growth period. The results show that from March to August,the monthly temperatures show an upward trend,but the rise is different in different months,and the maximum temperature rise is in May. Precipitation in different months has different trends. Climate change brings about favorable conditions at high altitudes in Fengjie,reduces production due to the temperature drop after the beginning of autumn,and increases the pressure on the corn supply.

  16. The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Teleconnections in a Warmer World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maloney, Eric; Wolding, Brandon; Henderson, Stephanie

    2017-04-01

    Two simulations of the Superparameterized Community Earth System Model (SP-CESM) are examined, one with pre-industrial (PI) levels of CO2 and one where CO2 levels have been quadrupled (4xCO2). While MJO convective variability increases considerably in the 4xCO2 simulation, the dynamical response to this convective variability decreases. Increased MJO convective variability is shown to be a robust response to the steepening vertical moisture gradient, consistent with the findings of previous studies. The decreased dynamical response to MJO convective variability is shown to be a consequence of increased static stability, which allows weaker variations in large-scale vertical velocity to produce sufficient adiabatic cooling to balance variations in MJO convective heating. This weakened dynamical response results in a considerable reduction of the MJO's ability to influence the extratropics, which is closely tied to the strength of its associated divergence. A linear baroclinic model is used to verify the impact of increased static stability on the extratropical circulation in a warmer climate. Results of this study suggest that, while MJO convective variability may increase in a warming climate, the MJO's role in bridging weather and climate in the extratropics may not.

  17. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  18. Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matías, Luis; Linares, Juan C; Sánchez-Miranda, Ángela; Jump, Alistair S

    2017-10-01

    Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change

  19. Is water security necessary? An empirical analysis of the effects of climate hazards on national-level economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Casey; Meeks, Robyn; Ghile, Yonas; Hunu, Kenneth

    2013-11-13

    The influence of climate and the role of water security on economic growth are topics of growing interest. Few studies have investigated the potential role that climate hazards, which water security addresses, and their cumulative effects have on the growth prospects for a country. Owing to the relatively stationary spatial patterns of global climate, certain regions and countries are more prone to climate hazards and climate variability than others. For example, El Nino/Southern Oscillation patterns result in greater hydroclimatic variability in much of the tropics than that experienced at higher latitudes. In this study, we use a precipitation index that preserves the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and differentiates between precipitation maxima (e.g. floods) and minima (e.g. droughts). The index is a more precise instrument for hydroclimate hazards than that used in any previous studies. A fixed effects, for year and country, regression model was developed to test the influence of climate variables on measures of economic growth and activity. The results indicate that precipitation extremes (i.e. floods and droughts) are the dominant climate influences on economic growth and that the effects are significant and negative. The drought index was found to be associated with a highly significant negative influence on gross domestic product (GDP) growth, while the flood index was associated with a negative influence on GDP growth and lagged effects on growth. The flood index was also found to have a negative effect on industrial value added in contemporary and lagged regressions. Temperature was found to have little significant effect. These results have important implications for economic projections of climate change impacts. Perhaps more important, the results make clear that hydroclimatic hazards have measurable negative impacts, and thus lack of water security is an impediment to growth. In addition, adaptation strategies should recognize the

  20. Forest growth and climate change: evidences from the ICP-Forests intensive monitoring in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piovosi M

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A few concurrent and/or counteracting factors (increase of average air temperature, rainfall shortage, drought, CO2 enrichment, ozone, nitrogen fertilization, sulphate deposition drive today the soil-tree-atmosphere relationships in the Mediterranean area. Radial stem growth measured within the ICP-Forests level II Italian network provides a sensitive response to these occurrences. Climate fluctuations and repeated anomalous seasons or extreme events are the major evidences of the change in progress. The 2003 heat wave is the main event occurred in this decade over large part of Europe. In Italy, it provoked a marked water deficit coupled to high air temperature, which resulted in a heavy water stress. The growth performance in different forest types was analyzed in this paper: growth rate in 2000-2004, compared with 1997-1999, showed reductions up to 50% on half of the plots examined. Most of them were: (i in northern-central Italy within the southern continental border of the climatic deviation; (ii at low elevation, which is more sensitive to high air temperature and drought; (iii made up of deciduous broadleaved forests (beech and oaks, i.e., species showing growth effects also in the following year. Over the time-window 2005-2009, a significant growth decrease was vice-versa detected within the coniferous spruce forests located at medium-high elevation in the Alps. Repeated seasonal deviations in temperature and rainfall were recorded in the Alps in 2005-2009. Climate effects at local scale were examined in a site where two oak species with a different auto-ecology (sessile oak and Turkey oak grow together. The on-going change produced heavy mortality and reduced the growth of the more demanding and less drought-tolerant sessile oak; in a few years Turkey oak became prevailing in the stand composition and structure.

  1. Arctic Shrub Growth Response to Climate Variation and Infrastructure Development on the North Slope of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, D.; Finlay, J. C.; Griffin, D.

    2015-12-01

    Woody shrub growth in the arctic tundra is increasing on a circumpolar scale. Shrub expansion alters land-atmosphere carbon fluxes, nutrient cycling, and habitat structure. Despite these ecosystem effects, the drivers of shrub expansion have not been precisely established at the landscape scale. This project examined two proposed anthropogenic drivers: global climate change and local infrastructure development, a press disturbance that generates high levels of dust deposition. Effects of global change were studied using dendrochronology to establish a relationship between climate and annual growth in Betula and Salix shrubs growing in the Alaskan low Arctic. To understand the spatial heterogeneity of shrub expansion, this analysis was replicated in shrub populations across levels of landscape properties including soil moisture and substrate age. Effects of dust deposition on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photosynthetic rate were measured on transects up to 625 meters from the Dalton Highway. Dust deposition rates decreased exponentially with distance from road, matching previous models of road dust deposition. NDVI tracked deposition rates closely, but photosynthetic rates were not strongly affected by deposition. These results suggest that dust deposition may locally bias remote sensing measurements such as NDVI, without altering internal physiological processes such as photosynthesis in arctic shrubs. Distinguishing between the effects of landscape properties, climate, and disturbance will improve our predictions of the biogeochemical feedbacks of arctic shrub expansion, with potential application in climate change modeling.

  2. Potential effects of climate change on the growth of fishes from different thermal guilds in Lakes Michigan and Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

    2015-01-01

    We used a bioenergetics modeling approach to investigate potential effects of climate change on the growth of two economically important native fishes: yellow perch (Perca flavescens), a cool-water fish, and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), a cold-water fish, in deep and oligotrophic Lakes Michigan and Huron. For assessing potential changes in fish growth, we contrasted simulated fish growth in the projected future climate regime during the period 2043-2070 under different prey availability scenarios with the simulated growth during the baseline (historical reference) period 1964-1993. Results showed that effects of climate change on the growth of these two fishes are jointly controlled by behavioral thermoregulation and prey availability. With the ability of behavioral thermoregulation, temperatures experienced by yellow perch in the projected future climate regime increased more than those experienced by lake whitefish. Thus simulated future growth decreased more for yellow perch than for lake whitefish under scenarios where prey availability remains constant into the future. Under high prey availability scenarios, simulated future growth of these two fishes both increased but yellow perch could not maintain the baseline efficiency of converting prey consumption into body weight. We contended that thermal guild should not be the only factor used to predict effects of climate change on the growth of a fish, and that ecosystem responses to climate change should be also taken into account.

  3. Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Deborah Bowne [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled CO2 climates was estimated.

  4. Climate Responses in Growth and Wood Anatomy of Imoprtant Forest Tree Species in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Weiwei

    and high temperatures on the development of Danish tree species are scarcely investigated. Through a dendroecological approach this dissertation assessed the growth responses related to increment, xylem anatomy and wood property of eight different important tree species, namely Picea abies (L.) Karst...... and decrease forest productivity. Q. robur is expected not only to tolerate the expected future climate including increasing water stress but also will presumably even prosper from the rising temperature. All other tested species are expected to have decreased growth and vitality, but to different degrees...

  5. Complex responses of spring vegetation growth to climate in a moisture-limited alpine meadow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Schwartz, Mark W; Zhu, Wenquan; Liang, Yan; Li, Yue; Wan, Yunfan; Cao, Xujuan; Williamson, Matthew A; Jiangcun, Wangzha; Guo, Hongbao; Lin, Erda

    2016-03-17

    Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results showed that in the early growing season, plant growth (represented by the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, NEE) was lower in the warmed plots than in the control plots. Late-season plant growth increased with warming relative to that under control conditions. These data suggest that the response of plant growth to warming is complex and non-intuitive in this system. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that moisture limitation increases in early spring as temperature increases. The effects of moisture limitation on plant growth with increasing temperatures will have important ramifications for grazers in this system.

  6. Why sustainable population growth is a key to climate change and public health equity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howat, Peter; Stoneham, Melissa

    2011-12-01

    Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

  7. The Potential Impacts of Warmer-Continent-Related Lower-Layer Equatorial Westerly Wind on Tropical Cyclone Initiation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Zhuojian; QIAN Yu-Kun; QI Jindian; WU Junjie

    2012-01-01

    Global climate models predict that the increasing Amazonian-deforestation rates cause rising temperatures (increases of 1.8℃ to 8℃ under different conditions) and Amazonian drying over the 21st century.Observations in the 20th century also show that over the warmer continent and the nearby western South Atlantic Ocean,the lower-layer equatorial westerly wind (LLEWW) strengthens with the initiation of tropical cyclones (TCs).The warmer-continent-related LLEWW can result from the Coriolis-force-induced deflection of the cross-equatorial flow (similar to the well-known heat-island effect on sea breeze) driven by the enhanced land-sea contrast between the warmer urbanized continents and relatively cold oceans.This study focuses on the processes relating the warmer-continent-related LLEWW to the TC initiation and demonstrates that the LLEWW embedded in trade easterlies can directly initiate TCs by creating cyclonic wind shears and forming the intertropical convergence zone.In addition to this direct effect,the LLEWW combined with the rotating Earth can boost additional updraft vapor over the high sea-surface temperature region (factor 1),facilitating a surface-to-midtroposphere moist layer (factor 2) and convective instability (factor 3) followed by diabatic processes.According to previous studies,the diabatic heating in a finite equatorial region also activates TCs (factor 4) on each side of the Equator with weak vertical shear (factor 5).Factors 1 5 are favorable conditions for the initiation of severe TCs.Statistical analyses show that the earliest signal of sustained LLEWW not only leads the earliest signal of sustained tropical depression by >3 days but also explains a higher percentage of total variance.

  8. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE VARIABLES, TRUNK GROWTH RATE AND WOOD DENSITY OF Eucalyptus grandis W. Mill ex Maiden TREES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Roberto Sette Jr

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

  9. Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Rocha, Adrian; Calvin, Katherine V.; Holmes, Bruce; Wang, Chuankuan; Goulden, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    How will regional growth and mortality change with even relatively small climate shifts, even independent of catastrophic disturbances? This question is particularly acute for the North American boreal forest, which is carbon-dense and subject The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean DBH increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly from 41.3 to 37.5 m2 ha-1. Tree mortality averaged 1.4±0.6% yr-1, with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from 2001, 2004, and 2012 sampling showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. There have been at least one, and probably two, significant recruitment episodes since stand initiation, and we infer that past climate extremes led to significant NOBS mortality still visible in the current forest structure. These results imply that a combination of successional and demographic processes, along with mortality driven by abiotic factors, continue to affect the stand, with significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS and the sustainable management of regional forests.

  10. Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Andrew; Mathews, Adam J.; Holzapfel, Bruno P.

    2016-09-01

    Carbohydrates are accumulated within the perennial structure of grapevines when their production exceeds the requirements of reproduction and growth. The period between harvest and leaf-fall (the post-harvest period) is a key period for carbohydrate accumulation in relatively warmer grape-growing regions. The level of carbohydrate reserves available for utilisation in the following season has an important effect on canopy growth and yield potential and is therefore an important consideration in vineyard management. In a warming climate, the post-harvest period is lengthening and becoming warmer, evidenced through studies in wine regions worldwide that have correlated recent air temperature increases with changing grapevine phenology. Budbreak, flowering, veraison, and harvest have all been observed to be occurring earlier than in previous decades. Additionally, the final stage of the grapevine phenological cycle, leaf-fall, occurs later. This study explored the potential for increased post-harvest carbohydrate accumulation by modelling heat accumulation following harvest dates for the recent climate (1975-2004) and two warmer climate projections with mean temperature anomalies of +1.26 and +2.61 °C. Summaries of post-harvest heat accumulation between harvest and leaf-fall were produced for each of Australia's Geographical Indications (wine regions) to provide comparisons from the base temperatures to projected warmer conditions across a range of climates. The results indicate that for warmer conditions, all regions observe earlier occurring budbreak and harvest as well as increasing post-harvest growing degree days accumulation before leaf-fall. The level of increase varies depending upon starting climatic condition, with cooler regions experiencing the greatest change.

  11. Impact of warmer weather on electricity sector emissions due to building energy use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Paul; Holloway, Tracey; Patz, Jonathan; Harkey, Monica; Ahl, Doug; Abel, David; Schuetter, Scott; Hackel, Scott

    2017-06-01

    Most US energy consumption occurs in buildings, with cooling demands anticipated to increase net building electricity use under warmer conditions. The electricity generation units that respond to this demand are major contributors to sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), both of which have direct impacts on public health, and contribute to the formation of secondary pollutants including ozone and fine particulate matter. This study quantifies temperature-driven changes in power plant emissions due to increased use of building air conditioning. We compare an ambient temperature baseline for the Eastern US to a model-calculated mid-century scenario with summer-average temperature increases ranging from 1 C to 5 C across the domain. We find a 7% increase in summer electricity demand and a 32% increase in non-coincident peak demand. Power sector modeling, assuming only limited changes to current generation resources, calculated a 16% increase in emissions of NOx and an 18% increase in emissions of SO2. There is a high level of regional variance in the response of building energy use to climate, and the response of emissions to associated demand. The East North Central census region exhibited the greatest sensitivity of energy demand and associated emissions to climate.

  12. Climate-induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middaugh, Christopher R.; Kessinger, Brin; Magoulick, Daniel D.

    2016-01-01

    Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater-dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g−1 day−1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g−1 day−1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g−1 day−1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end-of-century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.

  13. Major Changes in Growth Rate and Growth Variability of Beech (Fagus sylvatica L. Related to Soil Alteration and Climate Change in Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Latte

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Global change—particularly climate change, forest management, and atmospheric deposition—has significantly altered forest growing conditions in Europe. The influences of these changes on beech growth (Fagus sylvatica L. were investigated for the past 80 years in Belgium, using non-linear mixed effects models on ring-width chronologies of 149 mature and dominant beech trees (87–186 years old. The effects of the developmental stage (i.e., increasing tree size were filtered out in order to focus on time-dependent growth changes. Beech radial growth was divided into a low-frequency signal (=growth rate, mainly influenced by forest management and atmospheric deposition, and into a high-frequency variability (≈mean sensitivity, mainly influenced by climate change. Between 1930 and 2008, major long-term and time-dependent changes were highlighted. The beech growth rate has decreased by about 38% since the 1950–1960s, and growth variability has increased by about 45% since the 1970–1980s. Our results indicate that (1 before the 1980s, beech growth rate was not predominantly impacted by climate change but rather by soil alteration (i.e., soil compaction and/or nitrogen deposition; and (2 since the 1980s, climate change induced more frequent and intense yearly growth reductions that amplified the growth rate decrease. The highlighted changes were similar in the two ecoregions of Belgium, although more pronounced in the lowlands than in the uplands.

  14. Effects of climatic conditions and soil properties on Cabernet Sauvignon berry growth and anthocyanin profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Guo; He, Yan-Nan; Yue, Tai-Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Zhen-Wen

    2014-09-02

    Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two "Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V)" vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012). The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C) days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3'5'-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of high-quality wine grapes

  15. Effects of Climatic Conditions and Soil Properties on Cabernet Sauvignon Berry Growth and Anthocyanin Profiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Cheng

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Climatic conditions and soil type have significant influence on grape ripening and wine quality. The reported study was conducted in two “Cabernet Sauvignon (Vitis vinifera L.V” vineyards located in Xinjiang, a semiarid wine-producing region of China during two vintages (2011 and 2012. The results indicate that soil and climate affected berry growth and anthocyanin profiles. These two localities were within a distance of 5 km from each other and had soils of different physical and chemical composition. For each vineyard, the differences of anthocyanin concentrations, and parameters concerning berry growth and composition between the two years could be explained by different climatic conditions. Soil effect was studied by investigation of differences in berry composition and anthocyanin profiles between the two vineyards in the same year, which could be explained mainly by the different soil properties, vine water and nitrogen status. Specifically, the soils with less water and organic matter produced looser clusters, heavier berry skins and higher TSS, which contributed to the excellent performance of grapes. Compared with 2011, the increases in anthocyanin concentrations for each vineyard in 2012 could be attributed to smaller number of extreme temperature (>35 °C days and rainfall, lower vine water status and N level. The explanation for higher anthocyanin concentrations in grape skins from the soils with less water and organic matter could be the vine status differences, lighter berry weight and heavier skin weight at harvest. In particular, grapes from the soils with less water and organic matter had higher levels of 3′5′-substituded, O-methylated and acylated anthocyanins, which represented a positive characteristic conferring more stable pigmentation to the corresponding wine in the future. The present work clarifies the effects of climate and soil on berry growth and anthocyanin profiles, thus providing guidance for production of

  16. [Responses of Manglietia glauca growth to soil nutrients and climatic factors].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Li-Hua; He, Ri-Ming; Nong, Rui-Hong; Li, Zhong-Guo

    2014-04-01

    Tree height and diameter of breast height (DBH) as growth characteristics of Manglietia glauca introduced from Vietnam were measured at many sites in south China and responses of M. glauca growth to soil nutrients and climatic factors were analyzed in this study. Annual average increments of tree height and DBH among different planted sites had significant differences. Annual average increments of tree height and DBH had significant positive correlation with soil total N and P, available N and P, but no significant correlation with soil organic matter, total K, available K, indicating that soil N and P contents could be the main affecting factors for the growth of M. glauca. Annual average increment of tree height had significant difference, but annual average increment of DBH had no significant difference at different altitudes. Annual average increment of tree height increased with the altitude from 150 to 550 m, the maximum was at the altitude of 550 m, and then it decreased. It indicated that the most appropriate altitude for M. glauca introduction is 550 m. Annual average increments of tree height and DBH had significant negative correlation with annual average temperature and > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature, and significant positive correlation with annual average precipitation, suggesting that annual mean temperature, > or = 10 degrees C accumulated temperature and annual average precipitation could be the main climatic factors influencing the growth of M. glauca.

  17. Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.

    2017-06-01

    Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.

  18. Climate-induced larch growth response within the central Siberian permafrost zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Il'ya A.

    2015-12-01

    Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (˜65.8°N, 98.5°E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980 s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.

  19. Climate-Induced Larch Growth Response Within the Central Siberian Permafrost Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.; Im, Sergei T.; Petrov, Il'ya A.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: estimation of larch (Larix gmelinii) growth response to current climate changes. Location: permafrost area within the northern part of Central Siberia (approximately 65.8 deg N, 98.5 deg E). Method: analysis of dendrochronological data, climate variables, drought index SPEI, GPP (gross primary production) and EVI vegetation index (both Aqua/MODIS satellite derived), and soil water content anomalies (GRACE satellite measurements of equivalent water thickness anomalies, EWTA). Results: larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with previous year August precipitation (r = 0.63), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), soil water anomalies (r = 0.79), early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), May and June drought index (r = 0.68-0.82). There are significant positive trends of TRW since late 1980s and GPP since the year 2000. Mean TRW increased by about 50%, which is similar to post-Little Ice Age warming. TRW correlated with GPP and EVI of larch stands (r = 0.68-0.69). Main conclusions: within the permafrost zone of central Siberia larch TRW growth is limited by early summer temperatures, available water from snowmelt, water accumulated within soil in the previous year, and permafrost thaw water. Water stress is one of the limiting factors of larch growth. Larch TRW growth and GPP increased during recent decades.

  20. Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Gillingham, Phillipa K; Britton, J Robert

    2016-09-01

    Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.

  1. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  2. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  3. Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellmann, Lena; Agafonov, Leonid; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Churakova (Sidorova, Olga; Düthorn, Elisabeth; Esper, Jan; Hülsmann, Lisa; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Moiseev, Pavel; Myglan, Vladimir S.; Nikolaev, Anatoly N.; Reinig, Frederick; Schweingruber, Fritz H.; Solomina, Olga; Tegel, Willy; Büntgen, Ulf

    2016-07-01

    The area covered by boreal forests accounts for ˜16% of the global and 22% of the Northern Hemisphere landmass. Changes in the productivity and functioning of this circumpolar biome not only have strong effects on species composition and diversity at regional to larger scales, but also on the Earth’s carbon cycle. Although temporal inconsistency in the response of tree growth to temperature has been reported from some locations at the higher northern latitudes, a systematic dendroecological network assessment is still missing for most of the boreal zone. Here, we analyze the geographical patterns of changes in summer temperature and precipitation across northern Eurasia >60 °N since 1951 AD, as well as the growth trends and climate responses of 445 Pinus, Larix and Picea ring width chronologies in the same area and period. In contrast to widespread summer warming, fluctuations in precipitation and tree growth are spatially more diverse and overall less distinct. Although the influence of summer temperature on ring formation is increasing with latitude and distinct moisture effects are restricted to a few southern locations, growth sensitivity to June-July temperature variability is only significant at 16.6% of all sites (p ≤ 0.01). By revealing complex climate constraints on the productivity of Eurasia’s northern forests, our results question the a priori suitability of boreal tree-ring width chronologies for reconstructing summer temperatures. This study further emphasizes regional climate differences and their role on the dynamics of boreal ecosystems, and also underlines the importance of free data access to facilitate the compilation and evaluation of massively replicated and updated dendroecological networks.

  4. Large impacts of climatic warming on growth of boreal forests since 1960.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauppi, Pekka E; Posch, Maximilian; Pirinen, Pentti

    2014-01-01

    Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO2 concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome - more than ten million km2- important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo.

  5. Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, R Russell M; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson

    2015-09-24

    The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

  6. School climate and bullying victimization: a latent class growth model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gage, Nicholas A; Prykanowski, Debra A; Larson, Alvin

    2014-09-01

    Researchers investigating school-level approaches for bullying prevention are beginning to discuss and target school climate as a construct that (a) may predict prevalence and (b) be an avenue for school-wide intervention efforts (i.e., increasing positive school climate). Although promising, research has not fully examined and established the social-ecological link between school climate factors and bullying/peer aggression. To address this gap, we examined the association between school climate factors and bullying victimization for 4,742 students in Grades 3-12 across 3 school years in a large, very diverse urban school district using latent class growth modeling. Across 3 different models (elementary, secondary, and transition to middle school), a 3-class model was identified, which included students at high-risk for bullying victimization. Results indicated that, for all students, respect for diversity and student differences (e.g., racial diversity) predicted within-class decreases in reports of bullying. High-risk elementary students reported that adult support in school was a significant predictor of within-class reduction of bullying, and high-risk secondary students report peer support as a significant predictor of within-class reduction of bullying.

  7. Climate effects on cork growth in Cork oak plantations in Sicily (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Cork oak (Quercus suber L. is usually dominant in silvopastoral systems in many areas of Sicily, where the trees are debarked periodically for cork production. In spite of the importance of cork and cork oak stands in Sicilian forests and the potential economic scenarios, few research works have been carried out on these systems. Given the importance of cork thickness in cork quality evaluation, the main objective of this work is to study cork growth in cork oak productive stands spread on the north (Nebrodi Mountains and south-east (Iblei Mountains of Sicily. Image analysis techniques were used on cork surfaces of transverse sections of planks to measure cork rings. Dendrochronological analysis was applied to study annual fluctuation on rings growth in relation to various climate parameters in a cork cycle production. Results showed that rainfall, summer drought and temperature are determining factors in controlling cork growth. In siliceous areas of Nebrodi Mountains correlation between cork growth index and rainfall indicates that the rain period from May to September strongly influences phellogen activity. Temperature and water stress indices, on the other hand, show a negative correlation with cork growth. In clay and evolved soils of volcanic plateau of Iblei Mountains January precipitation shows a positive correlation with cork growth index. Also absolute minimum temperature in June and absolute maximum temperature in September show a positive correlation when temperature possibly has influence on phellogen activity during growing season.

  8. Difference in Tree Growth Responses to Climate at the Upper Treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jianfeng Peng; Xiaohua Gou; Fahu Chen; Jinbao Li; Puxing Liu; Yong Zhang; Keyan Fang

    2008-01-01

    Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains.Most chronological statistics,except for mean sensitivity (MS),decreased from west to east.The first principal component (PC1) Ioadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth.PC2 Ioadings decreased from west to east,suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains.Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area.Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area.Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline,whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area.Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline.However,tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area,and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.

  9. Difference in tree growth responses to climate at the upper treeline: Qilian Juniper in the Anyemaqen Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jianfeng; Gou, Xiaohua; Chen, Fahu; Li, Jinbao; Liu, Puxing; Zhang, Yong; Fang, Keyan

    2008-08-01

    Three ring-width chronologies were developed from Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) at the upper treeline along a west-east gradient in the Anyemaqen Mountains. Most chronological statistics, except for mean sensitivity (MS), decreased from west to east. The first principal component (PC1) loadings indicated that stands in a similar climate condition were most important to the variability of radial growth. PC2 loadings decreased from west to east, suggesting the difference of tree-growth between eastern and western Anyemaqen Mountains. Correlations between standard chronologies and climatic factors revealed different climatic influences on radial growth along a west-east gradient in the study area. Temperature of warm season (July-August) was important to the radial growth at the upper treeline in the whole study area. Precipitation of current May was an important limiting factor of tree growth only in the western (drier) upper treeline, whereas precipitation of current September limited tree growth in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline. Response function analysis results showed that there were regional differences between tree growth and climatic factors in various sampling sites of the whole study area. Temperature and precipitation were the important factors influencing tree growth in western (drier) upper treeline. However, tree growth was greatly limited by temperature at the upper treeline in the middle area, and was more limited by precipitation than temperature in the eastern (wetter) upper treeline.

  10. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Intrasasonal Oscillations in the Indian Monsoon System in a Warmer Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.; Cannon, F.; Norris, J.

    2015-12-01

    The India summer monsoon (ISM) experiences long periods of wet and dry conditions frequently associated with floods and long dry spells. These events are largely governed by northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO). Here we investigate intraseasonal variability of the ISM in the climate of the 20th century using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (1979-2013) and examine future scenarios of climate change using models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 project. ISM is characterized with a large-scale index obtained by performing combined EOF analysis of precipitation, low level circulation, specific humidity and temperature. This index realistically defines the monsoon's onset and withdrawal, is well correlated with seasonal precipitation in India and exhibits variance on intraseasonal timescales that are related to MISO and extreme wet and dry conditions in India. With similar approach we investigate the skill of the CMIP5 models in realistically simulating MISO in the 'historic' run (1951-2005) and examine projected changes in the amplitude and persistence these events in the high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) (2006-2100). MISO is well characterized in CMIP5 models that indicate significant increase in the intensity and frequency of extremely dry and wet conditions affecting India by 2050. We show that the main mechanism driving MISO in CMIP5 models are linked to the propagation of extratropical wave trains and interactions with the tropics. In a warmer planet, the increase in polar temperatures weakens the tropical-extratropical temperature gradient and decreases the intensity of the upper tropospheric jet. These changes in the jet and in the baroclinic structure of the atmosphere result in enhanced extratropical wave activity and more extreme events. We use a wave tracking algorithm to demonstrate these differences and explore physical and dynamical mechanisms underlying

  11. Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

    2015-08-01

    Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

  12. Carbon Isotopes and the Diverging Growth Response of Treeline Trees to Changing Climate in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, V. A.; Wilmking, M.; Juday, G. P.

    2007-12-01

    One of the underlying assumptions in dendroclimatology is that trees respond to climate today the same way they have responded in the past (uniformitarian principle). Recent studies at northern high latitudes treeline show this assumption may no longer be valid or may be flawed, as tree ring width based temperature reconstructions underestimate recent warming. This "divergence effect" might be due to false assumptions about 1) climate data (e.g. which climate parameter can be modeled most effectively), 2) tree ring data (e.g. shift in climate sensitivity of tree growth) or 3) a truly new and unprecedented phenomenon (e.g. rapid climate warming exceeding the adaptive capacity of trees). A recent survey of treeline trees in a longitudinal transect across the Alaska and Brooks Ranges in central and northern Alaska (maritime conditions in the west to more arid conditions in the east), has identified 3 responses of tree ring width to warming temperatures at discrete sites; positive (increased growth), negative (decreased growth) and no significant response. We hypothesize that the trees with decreased growth have shifted from temperature to moisture sensitivity as temperatures have increased without a concurrent increase in precipitation or change in snowpack. But there has been no definitive study confirming this. Contrasting this, white spruce growth on productive sites at low elevation sites in central Alaska is best modeled by mean May through August temperature. On such sites there is no threshold change in the prediction efficiency of radial growth across the range of temperatures (residuals are scale-independent) in the 104-yr Fairbanks record. This suggests that low elevation trees consistently have been limited by temperature-induced moisture stress, whereas treeline trees may have been high-temperature limited irregularly in the past, and are now increasingly so in recent decades. For this study, tree cores were collected from 12 white spruce (Picea glauca

  13. Relating annual increments of the endangered Blanding's turtle plastron growth to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, Monik G; Laroque, Colin P; Herman, Thomas B

    2014-05-01

    This research is the first published study to report a relationship between climate variables and plastron growth increments of turtles, in this case the endangered Nova Scotia Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii). We used techniques and software common to the discipline of dendrochronology to successfully cross-date our growth increment data series, to detrend and average our series of 80 immature Blanding's turtles into one common chronology, and to seek correlations between the chronology and environmental temperature and precipitation variables. Our cross-dated chronology had a series intercorrelation of 0.441 (above 99% confidence interval), an average mean sensitivity of 0.293, and an average unfiltered autocorrelation of 0.377. Our master chronology represented increments from 1975 to 2007 (33 years), with index values ranging from a low of 0.688 in 2006 to a high of 1.303 in 1977. Univariate climate response function analysis on mean monthly air temperature and precipitation values revealed a positive correlation with the previous year's May temperature and current year's August temperature; a negative correlation with the previous year's October temperature; and no significant correlation with precipitation. These techniques for determining growth increment response to environmental variables should be applicable to other turtle species and merit further exploration.

  14. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  15. [Climate change and pollination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besancenot, J-P; Thibaudon, M

    2012-12-01

    There is growing evidence to support an increase in air temperature over recent decades, with significant effects on aeroallergens such as pollen. It is generally accepted that the trend will continue, and become even more pronounced in the future. Global climate change is already affecting, and will continue to affect, with earlier floral initiation, the timing of the production of allergenic pollen. In addition, a warmer climate might lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. It could also increase the allergen content of pollens, and result in extension of plant species towards the poles and higher altitudes. Finally, rising levels of atmospheric CO₂ are likely to reinforce these trends. These predictions are subject to uncertainties that may lead to outcomes that differ materially from what is expected. Understanding the magnitude and direction of the changes affecting pollinisation is critical in order to quantify the future allergic disease burden and model the impacts of different climate change scenarios. Climate change influences the production, distribution, dispersion and allergenicity of anemophilous pollen and the growth and distribution of weeds, grasses and trees that produce it. These changes in aeroallergens and subsequent human exposure could affect the prevalence and severity of allergic disorders. There is, therefore, an important public health issue that requires development and implementation of appropriate response strategies without delay. © 2012 SPLF. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. Influence of feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Walsum, P. E. V.

    2011-11-01

    Climate change impact modelling of hydrologic responses is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. Reducing this dependency was one of the goals of extending the regional hydrologic modelling system SIMGRO with a two-way coupling to the crop growth simulation model WOFOST. The coupling includes feedbacks to the hydrologic model in terms of the root zone depth, soil cover, leaf area index, interception storage capacity, crop height and crop factor. For investigating whether such feedbacks lead to significantly different simulation results, two versions of the model coupling were set up for a test region: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous simulation of the crop growth, the "dynamic" model WOFOST. The used parameterization methods of the static/dynamic vegetation models ensure that for the current climate the simulated long-term average of the actual evapotranspiration is the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios. Owing to the higher temperatures in combination with a higher CO2-concentration of the atmosphere, a forward time shift of the crop development is simulated in the dynamic model; the used arable land crop, potatoes, also shows a shortening of the growing season. For this crop, a significant reduction of the potential transpiration is simulated compared to the static model, in the example by 15% in a warm, dry year. In consequence, the simulated crop water stress (the unit minus the relative transpiration) is lower when the dynamic model is used; also the simulated increase of crop water stress due to climate change is lower; in the example, the simulated increase is 15 percentage points less (of 55) than when a static model is used. The static/dynamic models also simulate different absolute values of the transpiration. The difference is most pronounced for potatoes at locations with ample moisture supply; this supply can either come from storage release of a

  17. Economic Growth in the Face of Weather and Climate Extremes: A Call for Better Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendleton, Linwood; Karl, Thomas R.; Mills, Evan

    2013-06-01

    The U.S. economy has grown to be the world's largest, even in the face of the most varied and costly weather and climate extremes on the planet (see http://www.munichreamerica.com/webinars/2013_01_natcatreview/MunichRe_III_NatCat01032013.pdf). Nevertheless, these extremes continue to take a toll on the nation, diverting public and private funds while limiting economic growth and jobs and threatening the well-being of Americans. Extreme weather events affect every state and manifest differently by region (see Figure 1 in Supporting Information in the online version of this Forum and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats).

  18. Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

    2016-11-15

    The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions.

  19. Sugar beet growth in a changing climate: past, present and future trends in southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Pascal; Fuchs, Hans-Joachim; Lang, Christian

    2017-04-01

    In the study, single factors and their impact on sugar beet cultivation against the background of past and projected climate change are being analyzed. The database consists of climate data by the German Weather Service and 1x1 km interpolated INTERMET raster data. Impact models were run to assess possible future trends using climate projection data of the REgional MOdel (REMO), emission scenario A1B, Run 1, data stream 2 for Germany, daily resolution, without bias correction, 10x10 km raster (n=150) (MPI on behalf of UBA 2006). Compared periods were: B:1971 2000; K:2021-2050; L:2071-2100. Agronomic data were collected from the field books of regional trials from 1974 2014 (n=448). Moreover, a business survey of regional farmers was carried out and evaluated. Impact models to predict timing for sowing, the date of field emergence and row closure, were derived from these data. The ontogenesis was simulated using a linear, temperature-based leaf-growth model. Sowing shifted forward by 7,3 days in regional field trials from 1974 2014. Progress-oriented, risk-tolerant farmers start sowing 10-14 days earlier compared to 1980. Recently, sowing is being conducted on average on 21 March in southwest Germany. For period K, 17 March, and for period L, 2 March is being projected as the average future sowing date while the same late frost risk applies compared to present climatic conditions. Shifting forward the sowing date with spring warming and, thus, exploiting the associated yield potential is the most promising agronomic adaptation strategy to the projected climate change on the farm level. In connection to earlier sowing, the field emergence tendentially shifted forward by 14 days in the field trials. Assuming sowing on 15 March, projection results show an advance of field emergence form 7 April in period B to 3 April in period L. Row closure in field trials in average shifted forward by 19,6 days. For period L, 29 May and thus, an earlier row closure of 9 days compared

  20. Species-specific growth responses to climate variations in understory trees of a Central African rain forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couralet, C.; Sterck, F.J.; Sass-Klaassen, U.; Acker, Van J.; Beekman, H.

    2010-01-01

    Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the und

  1. Species-specific growth responses to climate variations in understory trees of a Central African rain forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couralet, C.; Sterck, F.J.; Sass-Klaassen, U.; Acker, Van J.; Beekman, H.

    2010-01-01

    Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the

  2. Seasonal divergence in the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to climate and vegetation growth in the Yellow River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Tingting; Wu, Xiuchen; Li, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Yu; Shi, Fangzhong; Ma, Yujun; Wang, Pei; Zhang, Cicheng

    2017-01-01

    Seasonal variations in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) have crucial impacts on the seasonal trajectories of the regional water cycle, vegetation growth, and local climate feedback. However, the possibly divergent roles of climate and vegetation growth variations in controlling seasonal ET patterns remain poorly quantified. This study therefore quantifies the interannual sensitivity and attribution of ET to climate and vegetation growth variations in different seasons and different biomes in the YRB in China between 1982 and 2011, using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), FLUXNET-based upscaled ET, and concurrent climate data. The results reveal a clear seasonal divergence in the interannual sensitivity of ET to climate and vegetation growth variations in the YRB. Interannual precipitation and NDVI variations play a dominant role in controlling seasonal ET variations in the YRB, with temperature having a marginal effect. Interannual ET sensitivity to precipitation weakens with an increasing mean annual precipitation gradient in almost all seasons, especially in summer and autumn. More importantly, a seasonally varying role of vegetation growth in mediating seasonal ET was discovered, and a crucial role of late-growing-season vegetation growth in controlling the seasonal trajectory of regional ET was explicitly identified. These results suggest that ongoing intensive vegetation restoration has crucial impacts on seasonal water-cycle patterns and consequent terrestrial-atmospheric biogeochemical feedback in the YRB.

  3. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Andrew, R. M.; Rogelj, J.; Peters, G. P.; Canadell, J. G.; Knutti, R.; Luderer, G.; Raupach, M. R.; Schaeffer, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Le Quéré, C.

    2014-10-01

    Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 °C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

  4. Rapid evolution of parasite resistance in a warmer environment: insights from a large scale field experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos-Gonzalez, Fernando; Sundström, L Fredrik; Schmid, Marian; Björklund, Mats

    2015-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to have major effects on host-parasite dynamics, with potentially enormous consequences for entire ecosystems. To develop an accurate prognostic framework, theoretical models must be supported by empirical research. We investigated potential changes in host-parasite dynamics between a fish parasite, the eyefluke Diplostomum baeri, and an intermediate host, the European perch Perca fluviatilis, in a large-scale semi-enclosed area in the Baltic Sea, the Biotest Lake, which since 1980 receives heated water from a nuclear power plant. Two sample screenings, in two consecutive years, showed that fish from the warmer Biotest Lake were now less parasitized than fish from the Baltic Sea. These results are contrasting previous screenings performed six years after the temperature change, which showed the inverse situation. An experimental infection, by which perch from both populations were exposed to D. baeri from the Baltic Sea, revealed that perch from the Baltic Sea were successfully infected, while Biotest fish were not. These findings suggest that the elevated temperature may have resulted, among other outcomes, in an extremely rapid evolutionary change through which fish from the experimental Biotest Lake have gained resistance to the parasite. Our results confirm the need to account for both rapid evolutionary adaptation and biotic interactions in predictive models, and highlight the importance of empirical research in order to validate future projections.

  5. Ecophysiological traits sustaining tree growth and survival under drying climate in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakir, D.; Klein, T.; Cohen, S.

    2011-12-01

    The rate of evolutionary adaptation in long-lived organisms such as forest trees cannot compete with the current and predicted rate of climate change. Tree growth and survival under warming and drying climate, such as predicted for the Mediterranean and other regions, will depend therefore on the existing plasticity of physiological and phenological traits. We examined seven physiological and phenological parameters in Pinus halepensis, a drought resistant Mediterranean tree species, using five ecotypes growing under meso-Mediterranean (MM), thermo-Mediterranean (TM), and semi-arid (SA) climates. The results revealed that both phenotypic plasticity and locally adapted ecotypes contributed, differentially, to the success of this species across a wide range of climatic conditions. While some ecotypes had an inherent xylem resistance to embolism (percent loss of conductivity traits to compensate for lower compatibility with the drying and warming climate in other traits allowed sustained growth in all ecotypes. Published data on the survival of these ecotypes under harsher conditions than used here indicated that ultimately xylem resistance to embolism was a key to survival. Addressing specifically the issue of tree hydraulic conductance system in greenhouse and field studies indicated that although P. halepensis performs well under drought conditions it has a sensitive hydraulic system. This was reflected in 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity at relatively high leaf water potential of -3.1 MPa. This, however, was compensated for by a narrow safety margin allowing leaf gas exchange up to leaf water potential of -2.8 MPa. The hydraulic sensitivity also requires fast cavitation reversal, which was indeed observed in the dry season on hourly time-scale: Two cycles of cavitation and reversal observed during morning and afternoon, which were also reflected in a decoupling between sap flow and leaf transpiration. The results indicate newly observed hydraulic capabilities of

  6. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Demand and Crop Growth in a Mediterranean Environment of Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yano, Tomohisa; Aydin, Mehmet; Haraguchi, Tomokazu

    2007-10-16

    A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on cropgrowth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in aMediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using dataof the three general circulation models-GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI)-for theperiod of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model-RCM-for the period of 2070 to2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The forcing data for theboundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCMdata were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictionsderived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study coveredthe period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects ofclimate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using thedetailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant) model. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the periodof 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models,respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3,5.3 and 3.1 oC, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higherevaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa) fromwheat cropland under a doubling CO₂ concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 wasSensors 2007, 7 2298 predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15% according to the CGCM2, and 28 and 22% according to the RCM

  7. Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Jane R; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Bradford, John B; Banerjee, Sudipto

    2016-06-01

    As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses

  8. Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: is tree size, age, competition or climate response most important?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Jane R.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Bradford, John B.; Banerjee, Sudipto

    2016-01-01

    As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests’ ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals’ size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species likeAcer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92–95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth

  9. Effects of climatic factors on height growth components in Austrian black pine. [Pinus nigra nigricans, Arn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guyon, J.P.

    1986-01-01

    Weekly (or biweekly) leader shoot growth was assessed over 3 growing seasons (1982-1984) and annual shoot length was measured over 6 years (1979-1984) for a 30 seedlings (age: 11 years) sampled in a naturally regenerated stand of black pine, located at Mont Ventoux in southern France. The number of internodes (stem units) was assessed over the same period (1979-1984). Annual shoot length of a given year appeared as mainly controlled by the number of internodes initiated during the summer of the previous year. Investigations of climatic factors taking place during the assumed initiation stage, have shown a significant correlation between the annual leader shoot length and the cummulated rainfall of June, July and September of the previous year. By contrast, the correlations between the temperature factors during the assumed time of initiation and number of initiated internodes of the same year were not significant. The weekly shoot growth was significantly related to the average of minimum air temperature of the same period, at the time of height growth, that is to say April and May. Finally the possibility of integrating these results into growth models is discussed.

  10. High resolution crop growth simulation for identification of potential adaptation strategies under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, K. S.; Yoo, B. H.

    2016-12-01

    Impact assessment of climate change on crop production would facilitate planning of adaptation strategies. Because socio-environmental conditions would differ by local areas, it would be advantageous to assess potential adaptation measures at a specific area. The objectives of this study was to develop a crop growth simulation system at a very high spatial resolution, e.g., 30 m, and to assess different adaptation options including shift of planting date and use of different cultivars. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was used to predict yields of soybean and maize in Korea. Gridded data for climate and soil were used to prepare input data for the DSSAT model. Weather input data were prepared at the resolution of 30 m using bilinear interpolation from gridded climate scenario data. Those climate data were obtained from Korean Meteorology Administration. Spatial resolution of temperature and precipitation was 1 km whereas that of solar radiation was 12.5 km. Soil series data at the 30 m resolution were obtained from the soil database operated by Rural Development Administration, Korea. The SOL file, which is a soil input file for the DSSAT model was prepared using physical and chemical properties of a given soil series, which were available from the soil database. Crop yields were predicted by potential adaptation options based on planting date and cultivar. For example, 10 planting dates and three cultivars were used to identify ideal management options for climate change adaptation. In prediction of maize yield, combination of 20 planting dates and two cultivars was used as management options. Predicted crop yields differed by site even within a relatively small region. For example, the maximum of average yields for 2001-2010 seasons differed by sites In a county of which areas is 520 km2 (Fig. 1). There was also spatial variation in the ideal management option in the region (Fig. 2). These results suggested that local

  11. Warmer weather linked to tick attack and emergence of severe rickettsioses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Parola

    Full Text Available The impact of climate on the vector behaviour of the worldwide dog tick Rhipicephalus sanguineus is a cause of concern. This tick is a vector for life-threatening organisms including Rickettsia rickettsii, the agent of Rocky Mountain spotted fever, R. conorii, the agent of Mediterranean spotted fever, and the ubiquitous emerging pathogen R. massiliae. A focus of spotted fever was investigated in France in May 2007. Blood and tissue samples from two patients were tested. An entomological survey was organised with the study of climatic conditions. An experimental model was designed to test the affinity of Rh. sanguineus for biting humans in variable temperature conditions. Serological and/or molecular tools confirmed that one patient was infected by R. conorii, whereas the other was infected by R. massiliae. Dense populations of Rh. sanguineus were found. They were infected with new genotypes of clonal populations of either R. conorii (24/133; 18% or R. massiliae (13/133; 10%. April 2007 was the warmest since 1950, with summer-like temperatures. We show herein that the human affinity of Rh. sanguineus was increased in warmer temperatures. In addition to the originality of theses cases (ophthalmic involvements, the second reported case of R. massiliae infection, we provide evidence that this cluster of cases was related to a warming-mediated increase in the aggressiveness of Rh. sanguineus, leading to increased human attacks. From a global perspective, we predict that as a result of globalisation and warming, more pathogens transmitted by the brown dog tick may emerge in the future.

  12. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing

  13. Phenology and growth adjustments of oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) to photoperiod and climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legros, S; Mialet-Serra, I; Caliman, J-P; Siregar, F A; Clément-Vidal, A; Dingkuhn, M

    2009-11-01

    Oil palm flowering and fruit production show seasonal maxima whose causes are unknown. Drought periods confound these rhythms, making it difficult to analyse or predict dynamics of production. The present work aims to analyse phenological and growth responses of adult oil palms to seasonal and inter-annual climatic variability. Two oil palm genotypes planted in a replicated design at two sites in Indonesia underwent monthly observations during 22 months in 2006-2008. Measurements included growth of vegetative and reproductive organs, morphology and phenology. Drought was estimated from climatic water balance (rainfall - potential evapotranspiration) and simulated fraction of transpirable soil water. Production history of the same plants for 2001-2005 was used for inter-annual analyses. Drought was absent at the equatorial Kandista site (0 degrees 55'N) but the Batu Mulia site (3 degrees 12'S) had a dry season with variable severity. Vegetative growth and leaf appearance rate fluctuated with drought level. Yield of fruit, a function of the number of female inflorescences produced, was negatively correlated with photoperiod at Kandista. Dual annual maxima were observed supporting a recent theory of circadian control. The photoperiod-sensitive phases were estimated at 9 (or 9 + 12 x n) months before bunch maturity for a given phytomer. The main sensitive phase for drought effects was estimated at 29 months before bunch maturity, presumably associated with inflorescence sex determination. It is assumed that seasonal peaks of flowering in oil palm are controlled even near the equator by photoperiod response within a phytomer. These patterns are confounded with drought effects that affect flowering (yield) with long time-lag. Resulting dynamics are complex, but if the present results are confirmed it will be possible to predict them with models.

  14. Different parts, different stories: climate sensitivity of growth is stronger in root collars vs. stems in tundra shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ropars, Pascale; Angers-Blondin, Sandra; Gagnon, Marianne; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane

    2017-08-01

    Shrub densification has been widely reported across the circumpolar arctic and subarctic biomes in recent years. Long-term analyses based on dendrochronological techniques applied to shrubs have linked this phenomenon to climate change. However, the multi-stemmed structure of shrubs makes them difficult to sample and therefore leads to non-uniform sampling protocols among shrub ecologists, who will favor either root collars or stems to conduct dendrochronological analyses. Through a comparative study of the use of root collars and stems of Betula glandulosa, a common North American shrub species, we evaluated the relative sensitivity of each plant part to climate variables and assessed whether this sensitivity is consistent across three different types of environments in northwestern Québec, Canada (terrace, hilltop and snowbed). We found that root collars had greater sensitivity to climate than stems and that these differences were maintained across the three types of environments. Growth at the root collar was best explained by spring precipitation and summer temperature, whereas stem growth showed weak and inconsistent responses to climate variables. Moreover, sensitivity to climate was not consistent among plant parts, as individuals having climate-sensitive root collars did not tend to have climate-sensitive stems. These differences in sensitivity of shrub parts to climate highlight the complexity of resource allocation in multi-stemmed plants. Whereas stem initiation and growth are driven by microenvironmental variables such as light availability and competition, root collars integrate the growth of all plant parts instead, rendering them less affected by mechanisms such as competition and more responsive to signals of global change. Although further investigations are required to determine the degree to which these findings are generalizable across the tundra biome, our results indicate that consistency and caution in the choice of plant parts are a key

  15. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  16. Long-term change in the sensitivity of tree-ring growth to climate forcing in Larix decidua.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrer, Marco; Urbinati, Carlo

    2006-01-01

    Tree rings are widely used long-term proxy data which, if combined with long-term instrumental climate records, can provide excellent information on global climate variability. This research aimed to determine whether interannual climate-growth responses in Alpine treeline forests are stationary over time. We used tree-ring width chronologies of Larix decidua (European larch) from 17 sites and monthly temperatures and precipitation data for the period 1800-1999. Climate-growth relationships were assessed with correlation and response functions, and their stationarity and consistency over time were measured using moving correlation. Tree-ring chronologies showed similar interannual variations over the last two centuries, suggesting that the same climatic factors synchronously limited growth at most sites. The most sensitive variables showed significant transient responses varying within the time period, indicating a possible deviation from the uniformitarian principle applied to dendroclimatology. If these findings are confirmed in future studies on other species and in other regions, we suggest that time-dependent variables should be taken into account to avoid overestimation of treeline advance, future forest carbon storage in temperature-limited environments and inaccurate reconstruction of past climate variability.

  17. Climatic control on the growth of gigantic gypsum crystals within hypogenic caves (Naica mine, Mexico)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garofalo, Paolo S.; Fricker, Mattias B.; Günther, Detlef; Forti, Paolo; Mercuri, Anna-Maria; Loreti, Mara; Capaccioni, Bruno

    2010-01-01

    Three hypogenic caves within the Naica mine of Mexico ( Cueva de los Cristales — CLC, Ojo de la Reina — OR, and Cueva de las Velas — CLV) host spectacular gypsum crystals up to 11 m in length. These caves are close to another shallow cave of the area ( Cueva de las Espadas — CLE), with which they cover a 160 m-deep vertical section of the local drainage basin. Similar to other hypogenic caves, all these caves lack a direct connection with the land surface and should be unrelated with climate. A record of multi-technique fluid inclusion data and pollen spectra from cave and mine gypsum indicates surprisingly that climatic changes occurring at Naica could have controlled fluid composition in these caves, and hence crystal growth. Microthermometry and LA-ICP-Mass Spectrometry of fluid inclusions indicate that the shallow, chemically peculiar, saline fluid (up to 7.7 eq. wt.%NaCl) of CLE could have formed from evaporation, during a dry and hot climatic period. The fluid of the deep caves was instead of low salinity (˜ 3.5 eq. wt.% NaCl) and chemically homogeneous, and was poorly affected by evaporation. We propose that mixing of these two fluids, generated at different depths of the Naica drainage basin, determined the stable supersaturation conditions for the gigantic gypsum crystals to grow. Fluid mixing was controlled by the hydraulic communication between CLE and the other deep caves, and must have taken place during cycles of warm-dry and fresh-wet climatic periods, which are known to have occurred in the region. Pollen grains from a 35 ka-old gypsum crystal of CLC corresponds to a fairly homogenous catchment basin made of a mixed broadleaf wet forest, which suggests precipitation during a fresh-wet climatic period and confirms our interpretation of the fluid inclusion data. The unusual combination of geological and geochemical factors of Naica suggests that other hypogenic caves found elsewhere may not host similar crystals. However, this work shows that

  18. Sensitivity of tree ring growth to local and large-scale climate variability in a region of Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venegas-González, Alejandro; Chagas, Matheus Peres; Anholetto Júnior, Claudio Roberto; Alvares, Clayton Alcarde; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Tomazello Filho, Mario

    2016-01-01

    We explored the relationship between tree growth in two tropical species and local and large-scale climate variability in Southeastern Brazil. Tree ring width chronologies of Tectona grandis (teak) and Pinus caribaea (Caribbean pine) trees were compared with local (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index—WRSI, Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI, and Palmer Drought Severity Index—PDSI) and large-scale climate indices that analyze the equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (Trans-Niño Index-TNI and Niño-3.4-N3.4) and atmospheric circulation variations in the Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic Oscillation-AAO). Teak trees showed positive correlation with three indices in the current summer and fall. A significant correlation between WRSI index and Caribbean pine was observed in the dry season preceding tree ring formation. The influence of large-scale climate patterns was observed only for TNI and AAO, where there was a radial growth reduction in months preceding the growing season with positive values of the TNI in teak trees and radial growth increase (decrease) during December (March) to February (May) of the previous (current) growing season with positive phase of the AAO in teak (Caribbean pine) trees. The development of a new dendroclimatological study in Southeastern Brazil sheds light to local and large-scale climate influence on tree growth in recent decades, contributing in future climate change studies.

  19. A much warmer Earth surface for most of geologic time: implications to biotic weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartzman, D. W.; McMenamin, M.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present two scenarios for the temperature history of Earth. One scenario is conventional, the other relies on a warmer history. Both scenarios include surface cooling determined by the evolution of the biosphere and are similar until the Proterozoic period. The warmer scenario requires a higher plant/lichen terrestrial biota to increase weathering intensity. Justification for a warmer surface includes period temperatures from the oxygen isotope record of coexisting phosphates and cherts, an upper limit of 58 degrees C from primary gypsum precipitation, and the lack of fractionation of sulfur isotopes between sulfide and sulfates in Archean sediments.

  20. A much warmer Earth surface for most of geologic time: implications to biotic weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartzman, D. W.; McMenamin, M.

    1993-01-01

    The authors present two scenarios for the temperature history of Earth. One scenario is conventional, the other relies on a warmer history. Both scenarios include surface cooling determined by the evolution of the biosphere and are similar until the Proterozoic period. The warmer scenario requires a higher plant/lichen terrestrial biota to increase weathering intensity. Justification for a warmer surface includes period temperatures from the oxygen isotope record of coexisting phosphates and cherts, an upper limit of 58 degrees C from primary gypsum precipitation, and the lack of fractionation of sulfur isotopes between sulfide and sulfates in Archean sediments.

  1. Climate-growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Zuidema, P.A.; Martínez- Ramos, M.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate-growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in

  2. Climate-growth analysis for a Mexican dry forest tree shows strong impact of sea surface temperatures and predicts future growth declines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brienen, R.J.W.; Lebrija Trejos, E.E.; Zuidema, P.A.; Martínez- Ramos, M.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical forests will experience relatively large changes in temperature and rainfall towards the end of this century. Little is known about how tropical trees will respond to these changes. We used tree rings to establish climate-growth relations of a pioneer tree, Mimosa acantholoba, occurring in

  3. Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

    2016-02-01

    Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.

  4. [Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

    2015-01-01

    By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

  5. Spatial variability in growth-increment chronologies of long-lived freshwater mussels: Implications for climate impacts and reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Raggon, Mark F.; Zima, Daniela

    2010-01-01

    Estimates of historical variability in river ecosystems are often lacking, but long-lived freshwater mussels could provide unique opportunities to understand past conditions in these environments. We applied dendrochronology techniques to quantify historical variability in growth-increment widths in valves (shells) of western pearlshell freshwater mussels (Margaritifera falcata). A total of 3 growth-increment chronologies, spanning 19 to 26 y in length, were developed. Growth was highly synchronous among individuals within each site, and to a lesser extent, chronologies were synchronous among sites. All 3 chronologies negatively related to instrumental records of stream discharge, while correlations with measures of water temperature were consistently positive but weaker. A reconstruction of stream discharge was performed using linear regressions based on a mussel growth chronology and the regional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Models based on mussel growth and PDSI yielded similar coefficients of prediction (R2Pred) of 0.73 and 0.77, respectively, for predicting out-ofsample observations. From an ecological perspective, we found that mussel chronologies provided a rich source of information for understanding climate impacts. Responses of mussels to changes in climate and stream ecosystems can be very site- and process-specific, underscoring the complex nature of biotic responses to climate change and the need to understand both regional and local processes in projecting climate impacts on freshwater species.

  6. Climate change tendency and grassland vegetation response during the growth season in Three-River Source Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Climate change,climate suitablity change for grassland vegetation,and grassland response to climate change during the growth season are studied systematically by using meteorological data of temperature,precipitation,and length of sunlight from 1961 to 2007,NOAA/AVHRR NDVI from 1982 to 2006,and observations of grass height,biomass,and coverage in enclosed grassland from 1994 to 2006.Two models are developed to evaluate climate change and the climatic suitability of grassland vegetation growth.Average temperature,accumulative precipitation,and length of sunlight during the growth season increased from 1961 to 2007 at rates of 0.24°C/10 yr,2.32 mm/10 yr,and 2.81 h/10 yr,respectively.The increase rates of ave-rage temperature between April and May,and between June and August are 0.17 and 0.30°C/10 yr;accumulative rainfall between April and May increased at a rate of 2.80 mm/10 yr,and accumulative rainfall between June and August decreased at a rate of 0.38 mm/10 yr;the increase rates of accumulative length of sunlight between April and May,and between June and August are 2.15 and 1.2 h/10 yr.The climatic suitability of grassland vegetation growth showed an increasing trend,and the increase rate between April and May is greater than that between June and August.Both NDVI observations from 1982 to 2006 and measurements of grass height,dry biomass,and coverage from 1994 to 2006 show that the climate change has resulted in an increase in plant productivity of the grassland in Three-River Source Region.If some protection measures are taken as soon as possible,the deteriorated grassland in Three-River Source Region can recover.

  7. The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarasekare, Priyanga; Coutinho, Renato M

    2013-11-01

    1. Lately, there has been interest in using the intrinsic growth rate (rm) to predict the effects of climate warming on ectotherm population viability. However, because rm is calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, its reliability in predicting population persistence depends on whether ectotherm populations can achieve a stable age/stage distribution in thermally variable environments. Here, we investigate this issue using a mathematical framework that incorporates mechanistic descriptions of temperature effects on vital rates into a stage-structured population model that realistically captures the temperature-induced variability in developmental delays that characterize ectotherm life cycles. 2. We find that populations experiencing seasonal temperature variation converge to a stage distribution whose intra-annual pattern remains invariant across years. As a result, the mean annual per capita growth rate also remains constant between years. The key insight is the mechanism that allows populations converge to a stationary stage distribution. Temperature effects on the biochemical processes (e.g. enzyme kinetics, hormonal regulation) that underlie life-history traits (reproduction, development and mortality) exhibit well-defined thermodynamical properties (e.g. changes in entropy and enthalpy) that lead to predictable outcomes (e.g. reduction in reaction rates or hormonal action at temperature extremes). As a result, life-history traits exhibit a systematic and predictable response to seasonal temperature variation. This in turn leads to temporally predictable temperature responses of the stage distribution and the per capita growth rate. 3. When climate warming causes an increase in the mean annual temperature and/or the amplitude of seasonal fluctuations, the population model predicts the mean annual per capita growth rate to decline to zero within 100 years when warming is slow relative to the developmental period of the organism (0.03-0.05°C per year) and to

  8. Efects of Crop Growth on Hydrological Processes in River Basins and on Regional Climate in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIN; Pei-Hua; CHEN; Feng; XIE; Zheng-Hui

    2013-01-01

    The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China.A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin,Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin.When compared with the RegCM3 control run,RegCM3CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer,especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer(JJA)was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze,Haihe,Huaihe and Pearl Rivers.The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components(runof,evapotranspiration and total precipitation)over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation.Compared to the RegCM3,RegCM3CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin,but reduced precipitation in the other five basins.Furthermore,a lower summer leaf area index(1.20 m2m 2),greater root soil moisture(0.01 m3m 3),lower latent heat flux(1.34 W m 2),and greater sensible heat flux(2.04 W m 2)are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.

  9. Tree-ring growth and hydro-climatic variability in temperate dendrochronologies of northern Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Návar

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This report addresses the following questions: a is the diameter growth described by the standard ring width anomaly (SRWA of Psudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. Franco trees related to precipitation (P, pan evaporation (E, evapotranspiration (Et, runoff (Q, and soil moisture content (q derived from a water balance model?; b is the SRWA associated with synoptic climate events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO?, and c are P, Et and q related to ENSO, PDO and AMO events? The SRWA for three dendrochronologies (Las Bayas and Banderas in Durango and El Gato in Zacatecas from 1665 to 2001 addressed these questions. Instrumental measurements of P and E (1947-2007 and, using parameterized sub-models for the rainfall interception of Gash model (I and Et, a mass balance approach evaluated Q and q for a forest site near El Salto, Durango, Mexico. SRWA oscillations of several timescales had spectral peaks every 2-3; 3-7; and 9-12 years. The ENSO indices explained most of the total SRWA variation for all three chronologies (1990-2001. For the short (1990-2001 and middle-term (1945-2001 seasonal data, the SRWA variability was only linked to q. The strength of the relationship weakened as the length of the time series increased, indicating that other variables control tree growth as well. The ENSO takes, on average, 4 to 8 months to display its effect on the hydrological variables and diameter growth in northern P. mensiezii trees of Mexico, making tree growth predictable.

  10. Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

    2016-10-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

  11. Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

    2016-03-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

  12. Effects of crop growth and development on regional climate: a case study over East Asian monsoon area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Feng [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China); Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou (China); Xie, Zhenghui [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2012-06-15

    In this study, the CERES phenological growth and development functions were implemented into the regional climate model, RegCM3 to give a model denoted as RegCM3{sub C}ERES. This model was used to represent interactions between regional climate and crop growth processes. The effects of crop growth and development processes on regional climate were then studied based on two 20-year simulations over the East Asian monsoon area conducted using the original regional climate model RegCM3, and the coupled RegCM3{sub C}ERES model. The numerical experiments revealed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes into the regional climate model reduced the root mean squared error of the simulated precipitation by 2.2-10.7% over north China, and the simulated temperature by 5.5-30.9% over the monsoon region in eastern China. Comparison of the simulated results obtained using RegCM3{sub C}ERES and RegCM3 showed that the most significant changes associated with crop modeling were the changes in leaf area index which in turn modify the aspects of surface energy and water partitions and lead to moderate changes in surface temperature and, to some extent, rainfall. Further analysis revealed that a robust representation of seasonal changes in plant growth and developmental processes in the regional climate model changed the surface heat and moisture fluxes by modifying the vegetation characteristics, and that these differences in simulated surface fluxes resulted in different structures of the boundary layer and ultimately affected the convection. The variations in leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover changed the distribution of evapotranspiration and heat fluxes, which could potentially lead to anomalies in geopotential height, and consequently influenced the overlying atmospheric circulation. These changes would result in redistribution of the water and energy through advection. Nevertheless, there are significant uncertainties in modeling how monsoon

  13. Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming

  14. Preparing for a Warmer World: Towards a Global Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biermann, F.; Boas, I.J.C.

    2010-01-01

    human history. Millions of people, largely in Africa and Asia, might be forced to leave their homes to seek refuge in other places or countries over the course of the century. Yet the current institutions, organizations, and funding mechanisms are not sufficiently equipped to deal with this looming

  15. Wildlife as reservoirs for vector borne diseases in a warmer Scandinavian climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bødker, Rene; Kristensen, Birgit

    can be attributed global warming. Some of these new infections have important reservoirs in wild animals and this may affect prevention and control of outbreaks in humans and domestic animals. This may also put wild animals at risk of not just infections but also of control efforts targeted...

  16. Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

    2017-06-01

    The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ~20 models analysed in this study.

  17. Species-specific fine root biomass distribution alters competition in mixed forests under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyer, Christopher; Gutsch, Martin; Lasch, Petra; Suckow, Felicitas; Sterck, Frank; Mohren, Frits

    2010-05-01

    The importance of mixed forests in European silviculture has increased due to forest conversion policies and multifunctional forest management. Concurrently, evidences for substantial impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems accumulate. Projected drier and warmer conditions alter the water relations of tree species, their growth and ultimately their inter-specific competition in mixed stands. Process-based models are scientific tools to study the impact of climate change on and to deepen the understanding of the functioning of these systems based on ecological mechanisms. They allow for long-term, stand-level studies of forest dynamics which could only be addressed with great difficulty in an experimental or empirical setup. We used the process-based forest model 4C to simulate inter-specific competition in mixed stands of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and Common beech (Fagus sylvatica) as well as Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Sessile / Pedunculate oak (Quercus petraea and Quercus robur) under a) historical climate for model verification and b) under climate change scenario realizations of the climate model STAR 2.0 in Brandenburg, Germany. Some of the climate change scenario realizations feature a substantially drier and warmer summer climate which decreases the climatic water balance during the growing season. We assumed species-specific fine root biomass distributions which feature broadleaved fine roots in deeper soil layers and coniferous fine roots in upper soil layers according to several root excavation studies from mixed stands. The stands themselves were constructed from yield tables of the contributing species. The model verification provided good results for the basal area predictions under the historical climate. Under climate change, the number of days when the tree water demand exceeded the soil water supply was higher for the coniferous species than for broadleaved species. Furthermore, after 45 simulation years the basal area

  18. Impact of Climate Change on Irrigation Demand and Crop Growth in a Mediterranean Environment of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomokazu Haraguchi

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available A simulation study was carried out to describe effects of climate change on cropgrowth and irrigation water demand for a wheat-maize cropping sequence in aMediterranean environment of Turkey. Climate change scenarios were projected using dataof the three general circulation models—GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI—for theperiod of 1990 to 2100 and one regional climate model—RCM—for the period of 2070 to2079. Potential impacts of climate change based on GCMs data were estimated for the A2scenario in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES. The forcing data for theboundary condition of the RCM were given by the MRI model. Daily CGCM2 and RCMdata were used for computations of water balance and crop development. Predictionsderived from the models about changes in irrigation and crop growth in this study coveredthe period of 2070 to 2079 relative to the baseline period of 1994 to 2003. The effects ofclimate change on water demand and on wheat and maize yields were predicted using thedetailed crop growth subroutine of the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model. Precipitation was projected to decrease by about 163, 163 and 105 mm during the periodof 1990 to 2100 under the A2 scenario of the CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models,respectively. The CGCM2, ECHAM4 and MRI models projected a temperature rise of 4.3,5.3 and 3.1 oC, respectively by 2100. An increase in temperature may result in a higherevaporative demand of the atmosphere. However, actual evapotranspiration (ETa fromwheat cropland under a doubling CO2 concentration for the period of 2070 to 2079 wasSensors 2007, 7 2298 predicted to decrease by about 28 and 8% relative to the baseline period based on the CGCM2 and RCM data, respectively. According to these models, irrigation demand by wheat would be higher for the same period due to a decrease in precipitation. Both ETa and irrigation water for maize cropland were projected to decrease by 24 and 15

  19. Climate control on tree growth at the upper and lower treelines: a case study in the qilian mountains, tibetan plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bao; He, Minhui; Melvin, Thomas M; Zhao, Yan; Briffa, Keith R

    2013-01-01

    It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region's local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation) across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m). During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains.

  20. Climate control on tree growth at the upper and lower treelines: a case study in the qilian mountains, tibetan plateau.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bao Yang

    Full Text Available It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region's local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom. ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.. The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m. During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains.

  1. Stronger sexual selection in warmer waters: the case of a sex role reversed pipefish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuno M Monteiro

    Full Text Available In order to answer broader questions about sexual selection, one needs to measure selection on a wide array of phenotypic traits, simultaneously through space and time. Nevertheless, studies that simultaneously address temporal and spatial variation in reproduction are scarce. Here, we aimed to investigate the reproductive dynamics of a cold-water pipefish simultaneously through time (encompassing variation within each breeding cycle and as individuals grow and space (by contrasting populations experiencing distinct water temperature regimes in order to test hypothesized differences in sexual selection. Even though the sampled populations inhabited locations with very different water temperature regimes, they exhibited considerable similarities in reproductive parameters. The most striking was the existence of a well-defined substructure in reproductive activity, where larger individuals reproduce for longer periods, which seemed dependent on a high temperature threshold for breeding rather than on the low temperatures that vary heavily according to latitude. Furthermore, the perceived disparities among populations, such as size at first reproduction, female reproductive investment, or degree of sexual size dimorphism, seemed dependent on the interplay between seawater temperature and the operational sex ratio (OSR. Contrary to our expectations of an enhanced opportunity for sexual selection in the north, we found the opposite: higher female reproductive investment coupled with increased sexual size dimorphism in warmer waters, implying that a prolonged breeding season does not necessarily translate into reduced sexual selection pressure. In fact, if the limited sex has the ability to reproduce either continuously or recurrently during the entire breeding season, an increased opportunity for sexual selection might arise from the need to compete for available partners under strongly biased OSRs across protracted breeding seasons. A more general

  2. Influence of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Growth in North China During 1950-2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SONG Yanling; Elisabeth SIMELTON; CHEN Deliang; DONG Wenjie

    2005-01-01

    The crop model World Food Studies (WOFOST) was tuned and validated with meteorological as well as winter wheat growth and yield data at 24 stations in 5 provinces of North China from 1997 to 2003.The parameterization obtained by the tuning was then used to model the impacts of climate change on winter wheat growth for all stations using long-term weather data from 1950 to 2000. Two simulations were made, one with all meteorological data (rainfed) and the other without water stress (potential). The results indicate that the flowering and maturity dates occurred 3.3 and 3 days earlier in the 1990s than that in the 1960s due to a 0.65℃ temperature increase. The simulated rainfed yields show that the average drought induced yields (potential minus rainfed yields) have decreased by 9.7% over the last 50 years. This is to be compared with a 0.02% decrease in yield if the precipitation limit is lifted. Although the precipitation during the growing season has decreased over the last 50 years, the drought effects on the rainfed yields remained to be practically unchanged as the spring precipitation did not decrease markedly.

  3. Pressure Infusion Cuff and Blood Warmer during Massive Transfusion: An Experimental Study About Hemolysis and Hypothermia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, Thomas G; Pruneau, Denise; Dorval, Josée; Thibault, Louis; Fisette, Jean-François; Bédard, Suzanne K; Jacques, Annie; Beauregard, Patrice

    2016-01-01

    Blood warmers were developed to reduce the risk of hypothermia associated with the infusion of cold blood products. During massive transfusion, these devices are used with compression sleeve, which induce a major stress to red blood cells. In this setting, the combination of blood warmer and compression sleeve could generate hemolysis and harm the patient. We conducted this study to compare the impact of different pressure rates on the hemolysis of packed red blood cells and on the outlet temperature when a blood warmer set at 41.5°C is used. Pressure rates tested were 150 and 300 mmHg. Ten packed red blood cells units were provided by Héma-Québec and each unit was sequentially tested. We found no increase in hemolysis either at 150 or 300 mmHg. By cons, we found that the blood warmer was not effective at warming the red blood cells at the specified temperature. At 150 mmHg, the outlet temperature reached 37.1°C and at 300 mmHg, the temperature was 33.7°C. To use a blood warmer set at 41.5°C in conjunction with a compression sleeve at 150 or 300 mmHg does not generate hemolysis. At 300 mmHg a blood warmer set at 41.5°C does not totally avoid a risk of hypothermia.

  4. Private Capital and Investment Climate for Economic Growth: Empirical Lessons based on ARDL bound test technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gérard Tchouassi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Using time series, autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL-bound test approach and error-correction model (ECM, this paper aims to analyze how private capital and investment climate contribute to economic growth in African countries: Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Tunisia, South Africa and Zambia. We find that in short-run there is a significant relationship between private capital, economic freedom and economic growth in Cameroon, in Côte d’Ivoire, in South Africa and in Zambia. In long run, we establish that a long term relationship exists between the variables. This implies that there is a long run cointegration relationship among the variables in some equations in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa and Zambia. Employing the appropriate order of the ARDL specification and multidimensional economic freedom proxies to examine this linkage, the results obtained are not all significant.  JEL Classifications: C13, C22, E22, F43, O11, O47 Key-Words: Private capital, Investment climate, Economic freedom, Economic growth, Time series, ARDL bound test approach, Error-Correction Model. Normal 0 14 false false false IT X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabella normale"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  5. Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    William D. Dijak; Brice B. Hanberry; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Wen J. Wang; Frank R. Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Context. Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest...

  6. Managing the Environmental Impacts of Growth Under Climate Change: A Workshop for State and Local Decision-Makers--Workshop Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    From November 8/9, 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) hosted a workshop titled "Managing the Environmental Impacts of Growth Under Climate Change." The Office of Research and Development (ORD) organized the meeting, which was held in Research Triangle Park, Nort...

  7. Impact of climate change on radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in North-western Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lopatin E

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available When adapting forest management practices to a changing environment, it is very important to understand the response of an unmanaged natural forest to climate change. The method used to identify major climatic factors influencing radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine along a latitudinal gradient in north-western Russia is dendroclimatic analysis. A clear increasing long-term trend was identified in air temperature and precipitation. During the last 20 years, all meteorological stations experienced temperature increases, and 40 years ago precipitation began to increase. This is shown by the radial increment of Siberian spruce and Scots pine. Therefore, climate change could partly explain the increased forest productivity. The total variance explained by temperature varied from 22% to 41% and precipitation from 19% to 38%. The significant climatic parameters for radial increment in Komi Republic were identified, and the relation between temperature and precipitation in explained variance changes over time for Siberian spruce.

  8. Impact of climate change on radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in North-western Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lopatin E

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available When adapting forest management practices to a changing environment, it is very important to understand the response of an unmanaged natural forest to climate change. The method used to identify major climatic factors influencing radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine along a latitudinal gradient in north-western Russia is dendroclimatic analysis. A clear increasing long-term trend was identified in air temperature and precipitation. During the last 20 years, all meteorological stations experienced temperature increases, and 40 years ago precipitation began to increase. This is shown by the radial increment of Siberian spruce and Scots pine. Therefore, climate change could partly explain the increased forest productivity. The total variance explained by temperature varied from 22% to 41% and precipitation from 19% to 38%. The significant climatic parameters for radial increment in Komi Republic were identified, and the relation between temperature and precipitation in explained variance changes over time for Siberian spruce.

  9. Dynamic Response of Satellite-Derived Vegetation Growth to Climate Change in the Three North Shelter Forest Region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin He

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Since the late 1970s, the Chinese government has initiated ecological restoration programs in the Three North Shelter Forest System Project (TNSFSP area. Whether accelerated climate change will help or hinder these efforts is still poorly understood. Using the updated and extended AVHRR NDVI3g dataset from 1982 to 2011 and corresponding climatic data, we investigated vegetation variations in response to climate change. The results showed that the overall state of vegetation in the study region has improved over the past three decades. Vegetation cover significantly decreased in 23.1% and significantly increased in 21.8% of the study area. An increase in all three main vegetation types (forest, grassland, and cropland was observed, but the trend was only statistically significant in cropland. In addition, bare and sparsely vegetated areas, mainly located in the western part of the study area, have significantly expanded since the early 2000s. A moisture condition analysis indicated that the study area experienced significant climate variations, with warm-wet conditions in the western region and warm-dry conditions in the eastern region. Correlation analysis showed that variations in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. Ultimately, climate change influenced vegetation growth by controlling the availability of soil moisture. Further investigation suggested that the positive impacts of precipitation on NDVI have weakened in the study region, whereas the negative impacts from temperature have been enhanced in the eastern study area. However, over recent years, the negative temperature impacts have been converted to positive impacts in the western region. Considering the variations in the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, the warm–dry climate in the eastern region is likely harmful to vegetation growth, whereas the warm

  10. Tree- and Stand-Level Thinning Effects on Growth of European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L. on a Northeast- and a Southwest-Facing Slope in Southwest Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Diaconu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Anticipated changes in climate and research findings on the drought sensitivity of beech have triggered controversial discussions about the future of European beech. We investigated the growth response of beech on the tree- and stand-level in mature stands to three different thinning intensities (no thinning, strong thinning, very strong thinning on a northeast- and southwest-facing slope in Southwest Germany. Linear mixed-effects models were formulated to describe effects on growth parameters on the tree- and stand-level (diameter, height, basal area, volume. At the stand-level, the stand basal area increment and stand volume increment were lower on the thinned plots. At the tree-level, the basal area increment significantly increased with increasing thinning intensity. The growth of individual trees was also influenced by initial tree size, the size-related rank of the tree within a stand, and by the aspect of the site. Our data indicate that growth of European beech is impaired on the southwest-facing slope with a warmer and drier climate and that a very strong thinning regime applied at advanced age can accelerate growth of European beech trees even on the warmer and drier site. Our findings, therefore, imply that in a warmer climate intensive thinning may also represent an important adaptive forest management measure in European beech stands.

  11. Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Growth in Arid Northwest of China from 1982 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have concluded that the increase in vegetation in the arid northwest of China is related to precipitation rather than temperature. However, these studies neglected the effects of climate warming on water availability that arise through changes in the melting characteristics of this snowy and glaciated region. Here, we characterized vegetation changes using the newly improved third-generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GIMMS-3g NDVI from 1982 to 2011. We analyzed the temperature and precipitation trends based on data from 51 meteorological stations across Northwest China and investigated changes in the glaciers using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE data. Our results indicated an increasing trend in vegetation greenness in Northwest China, and this increasing trend was mostly associated with increasing winter precipitation and summer temperature. We found that the mean annual temperature increased at a rate of 0.04 °C per year over the past 30 years, which induced rapid glacial melting. The total water storage measured by GRACE decreased by up to 8 mm yr−1 and primarily corresponded to the disappearance of glaciers. Considering the absence of any observed increase in precipitation in the growing season, the vegetation growth may have benefited from the melting of glaciers in high-elevation mountains (i.e., the Tianshan Mountains. Multiple regression analysis showed that temperature was positively correlated with NDVI and that gravity was negatively correlated with NDVI; together, these variables explained 84% of the NDVI variation. Our findings suggest that both winter precipitation and warming-induced glacial melting increased water availability to the arid vegetation in this region, resulting in enhanced greenness.

  12. Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.

    2014-01-01

    The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests o

  13. Predicting climate change impacts on native and invasive tree species using radial growth and twenty-first century climate scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    González-Muñoz, N.; Linares, J.C.; Castro-Díez, P.; Sass-Klaassen, U.G.W.

    2014-01-01

    The climatic conditions predicted for the twenty-first century may aggravate the extent and impacts of plant invasions, by favouring those invaders more adapted to altered conditions or by hampering the native flora. We aim to predict the fate of native and invasive tree species in the oak forests

  14. Impact climate change factors on the clonal sedge Carex bigelowii. Implications for population growth and vegetative spread

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlsson, B.Aa. (Lund Univ., Dept. of Ecology, Plant Ecology, Lund (Sweden)); Callaghan, T.V. (Univ. of Manchester, Centre for Arctic Biology, School of Biological Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom))

    1994-12-01

    Hypothesized life-cycle responses to climate change for the arctic, clonal perennial Carex bigelowii are constructed using a range of earlier observations and experiments together with new information from monitoring and an environmental perturbation study. These data suggest, that under current climate change scenarios, increases in CO[sub 2], temperature and nutrient availability would promote growth in a qualitatively similar way. The evidence suggests that both tiller size and daughter tiller production will increase, and be shifted towards production of phalanx tillers which have a greater propensity for flowering. Furthermore, age at tillering as well as tiller life span may decrease, whereas survival of younger age classes might be higher. Mathematical models using experimental data incorporating these hypotheses were used to (a) integrate the various responses and to calculate the order of magnitude of changes in population growth rate ([lambda]), and (b) to explore the implications of responses in individual demographic parameters for population growth rate. The models suggest that population growth rate following climate change might increase significantly, but not unrealistically so, with the younger, larger, guerilla tillers being the most important tiller categories in contributing to [lambda]. The rate of vegetative spread is calculated to more than double, while cyclical trends in flowering and population growth are predicted to decrease substantially. (au) (43 refs.)

  15. In-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, under various flow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higashi, Midoriko; Yamaura, Ken; Matsubara, Yukie; Fukudome, Takuya; Hoka, Sumio

    2015-04-01

    Roller pump infusion devices are widely used for rapid infusion, and may be combined with separate warming devices. There may be instances however, where the pressures generated by the roller pump may not be compatible with the warming device. We assessed a commonly used roller pump in combination with a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer, and found that it could generate pressures exceeding the HOTLINE® manufacturers specifications. This was of concern because the HOTLINE® manufacturer guideline states that not for use with pressure devices generating over 300 mmHg. Pressure greater than 300 mmHg may compromise the integrity of the HOTLINE® Fluid Warming Set. The aim of this study was to compare in-line pressure within a HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer at different infusion rates of a roller pump using various sizes of intravenous cannulae. The rapid infusion system comprised a 500 mL-normal saline bag, roller pump type infusion device, HOTLINE® Fluid Warmer (blood and fluid warmer system), and six different sizes of intravenous cannulae. In-line pressure was measured proximal to the HOTLINE® (pre-warmer) and proximal to the cannula (post-warmer), at flow rate of 50-160 mL/min. The in-line pressures increased significantly with increasing flow rate. The pre-warmer pressures exceeded 300 mmHg when the flow rate was ≥120 mL/min with 20-gauge, 48 mm length cannula, 130 with 20-gauge, 25 mm cannula, and 160 mL/min with 18-gauge, 48 mm cannula. However, they were HOTLINE® could exceed 300 mmHg, depending on the flow rate and size and length of cannula. It is important to pay attention to the size and length of cannulae and flow rate to keep the maximum in-line pressure<300 mmHg when a roller pump type infusion device is used.

  16. Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSoto, Lucía; Varino, Filipa; Andrade, José P; Gouveia, Celia M; Campelo, Filipe; Trigo, Ricardo M; Nabais, Cristina

    2014-12-01

    Mediterranean plants cope with cold wet winters and dry hot summers, with a drought gradient from northwest to southeast. Limiting climatic conditions have become more pronounced in the last decades due to the warming trend and rainfall decrease. Juniperus thurifera L., a long-lived conifer tree endemic to the western Mediterranean region, has a disjunct distribution in Europe and Africa, making it a suitable species to study sensitivity to climate in both sides of the Mediterranean Basin. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for three J. thurifera stands at Spain (Europe) and three in Morocco (Africa) and correlated with monthly temperature and precipitation. The temporal stability of climate-growth relationships was assessed using moving correlations; the drought effect on growth was calculated using the monthly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different temporal scales. In the wettest stands, increasing spring temperature and summer precipitation enhanced growth, while in the driest stands, growth was enhanced by higher spring precipitation and lower summer temperature. The climate-growth correlations shifted during the twentieth century, especially since the 1970s. Particularly noticeable is the recent negative correlation with previous autumn and winter precipitation in the wettest stands of J. thurifera, probably related with an effect of cloud cover or flooding on carbon storage depletion for next year growth. The driest stands were affected by drought at long time scales, while the wettest stands respond to drought at short time scales. This reveals a different strategy to cope with drought conditions, with populations from drier sites able to cope with short periods of water deficit.

  17. Different growth sensitivity to climate of the conifer Juniperus thurifera on both sides of the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSoto, Lucía; Varino, Filipa; Andrade, José P.; Gouveia, Celia M.; Campelo, Filipe; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Nabais, Cristina

    2014-12-01

    Mediterranean plants cope with cold wet winters and dry hot summers, with a drought gradient from northwest to southeast. Limiting climatic conditions have become more pronounced in the last decades due to the warming trend and rainfall decrease. Juniperus thurifera L., a long-lived conifer tree endemic to the western Mediterranean region, has a disjunct distribution in Europe and Africa, making it a suitable species to study sensitivity to climate in both sides of the Mediterranean Basin. Tree-ring width chronologies were built for three J. thurifera stands at Spain (Europe) and three in Morocco (Africa) and correlated with monthly temperature and precipitation. The temporal stability of climate-growth relationships was assessed using moving correlations; the drought effect on growth was calculated using the monthly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different temporal scales. In the wettest stands, increasing spring temperature and summer precipitation enhanced growth, while in the driest stands, growth was enhanced by higher spring precipitation and lower summer temperature. The climate-growth correlations shifted during the twentieth century, especially since the 1970s. Particularly noticeable is the recent negative correlation with previous autumn and winter precipitation in the wettest stands of J. thurifera, probably related with an effect of cloud cover or flooding on carbon storage depletion for next year growth. The driest stands were affected by drought at long time scales, while the wettest stands respond to drought at short time scales. This reveals a different strategy to cope with drought conditions, with populations from drier sites able to cope with short periods of water deficit.

  18. Spatiotemporal Effects of Climate Variability and Urban Growth on the "Valle de Toluca" Aquifer (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastachi-Loza, C. A.; Diaz-Delgado, C.; Esteller, M. V.; Gomez-Albores, M. A.; Becerril, R.; Ruiz-Gomez, M. D.

    2013-05-01

    Toluca city is located in the "Valle de Toluca" at the upper course of the Lerma river basin, is an important economic center which contributes with 1.2% of Gross National Product (GNP) since it is an industrial city, The city has grown due to the economic development sustained by the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer which provides water for human consumption, industrial facilities and crop irrigation. Recent studies have shown that in the last 50 years the annual precipitation rate in Toluca has increased 122 mm, whereas the daily minimum temperature has increased 1.1 °C and the daily maximum temperature has also increased 0.8 °C. These results show a general overview of the change in the climate conditions of the city; however they do not show the spatial distribution of the change. For this reason, the aim of this work was to evaluate the spatiotemporal change of precipitation rates and urban growth in order to determine their effects over the "Valle de Toluca" aquifer. In order to detect the urban growth, a supervised classification technique has been used taking into account Landsat TM satellite images between 1973, 1986, 2000 and 2005. A yearly spatiotemporal raster set of rainfall rates from 1980 to 2010 were obtained interpolating data from 812 climatologic stations. To evaluate the effect in annual precipitation rates and urban growth over the aquifer, we interpolate data from 38 piezometers from 1980 to 2010 to obtain a spatiotemporal raster set. The piezometric values correspond to the aquifer's upper level. The spatiotemporal raster sets were analyzed with the non-parametric Theil-Sen test to determine trends in piezometric levels and precipitation rates. Finally the urban growth, spatial-temporal trends of precipitation rates and piezometric levels were displayed in a GIS and then subjectively analyzed to figure out coincidences. An increase in annual precipitation rates (+87 mm) over Toluca's Valley during the last three decades was observed specially

  19. Fungi in a changing world: growth rates will be elevated, but spore production may decrease in future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damialis, Athanasios; Mohammad, Aqilah B.; Halley, John M.; Gange, Alan C.

    2015-09-01

    Very little is known about the impact of climate change on fungi and especially on spore production. Fungal spores can be allergenic, thus being important for human health. The aim of this study was to investigate how climate change influences the responsive ability of fungi by simulating differing environmental regimes. Fungal species with high spore allergenic potential and atmospheric abundance were grown and experimentally examined under a variety of temperatures and different nutrient availability. Each represented the average decadal air temperature of the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s in the UK, along with an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenario for 2100. All tests were run on six fungal species: Alternaria alternata, Aspergillus niger, Botrytis cinerea, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Cladosporium oxysporum and Epicoccum purpurascens. Mycelium growth rate and spore production were examined on each single species and competitive capacity among species combinations in pairs. All fungal species grew faster at higher temperatures, and this was more pronounced for the temperature projection in 2100. Most species grew faster when there was lower nutrient availability. Exceptions were the species with the highest growth rate ( E. purpurascens) and with the highest competition capacity ( A. alternata). Most species (except for E. purpurascens) produced more spores in the richer nutrient medium but fewer as temperature increased. C. cladosporioides was an exception, exponentially increasing its spore production in the temperature of the 2100 scenario. Regarding competitive capacity, no species displayed any significant alterations within the environmental range checked. It is suggested that in future climates, fungi will display dramatic growth responses, with faster mycelium growth and lower spore production, with questions risen on relevant allergen potential.

  20. Late Holocene Peat Growth at the Northern Siberian Periphery and its Relation to Arctic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, H. A.; Abramova, E.; Alenius, T.; Saarnisto, M.

    2014-12-01

    During the last postglacial evolution of the shallow northern Siberian shelf systems regional sea level in the Arctic came to its Holocene highstand some time between 5 to 6 ka. After that time a general stabilization of the sedimentary regime occurred. That is well noted in a drastic decrease in sedimentation rates observed in all sediment cores taken from middle to outer shelf water depths of the Laptev Sea. But, at water depths lower than 30 meters - i.e., in the inner shelf and nearer to the coasts - sedimentation continued at relatively higher rates, presumably due to input of terrigenous material from river runoff as well as coastal erosion. Compared with that latter process, the huge Lena Delta should comprise a region of sediment catchment where aggradation wins over erosion. However, little is known about the detailed history of this delta during the second half of the Holocene. In order to gain more insight into this issue we have investigated three islands within the Lena Delta. All of these are comprised of massive peat of several meters in thickness. Picking discrete specimens of water mosses (Sphagnum) only, we have radiocarbon-dated these peat sections. The depth/age relation of the sampled profiles reflect the growth rate of peat. It shows that the islands' history above the present-day delta-sea level is about 4000 yrs. old. Moreover, a significant change in peat growth occurred after 2500 yrs BP in both, accumulation and composition, and allows the conclusion of a major shift in Arctic environmental conditions since then. Thus, our results may add further information also for other coastal studies, as the ongoing degradation of the rather vulnerable permafrost coast in the Laptev Sea and elsewhere along the North Siberian margin is often mentioned in context with recent Arctic climate change due to global warming.

  1. The Growth of Bosnian Pine (Pinus hedreichii Christ. at Tree-Line Locations from Kosovo and its Response to Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faruk Bojaxhi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Pinus heldreichii Christ. is a sub-endemic species occurring at tree-line locations in Kosovo and covering an area of 2500 ha. In high elevation sites radial growth is mainly controlled by low temperatures. The main purpose of this study was the analysis of radial growth of P. heldreichii and its response to local climate conditions. Materials and Methods: Research sites comprise of three high elevation stands of P. heldreichii with specific site conditions. Core samples were collected from 98 healthy dominant and co-dominant trees at breast height using increment borer. They were prepared and cross-dated using standard dendrochronological methods, while tree-ring widths were measured to the nearest 0.001 mm using the TSAP software. The ARSTAN program was used to standardize the tree-ring widths and to calculate dendrochronological statistical parameters. The growth-climate relationship was investigated using bootstrapped correlation function analysing the residual chronologies of each sampled site as a dependent variable and the climatic data from May of the (n-1 year up to the October of the n year for the common period 1951-2013 as an independent variable. Results: The length of Bosnian pine chronologies ranged from 175 to 541 years. All chronologies had high values of first-order autocorrelation indicating that radial growth of P. heldreichii is affected by the climate conditions of the previous growing year. Koritnik chronology had the highest values of the mean sensitivity due to the influence of drought stress. This conclusion is also supported by the result of growth-climate relationship where radial growth is negatively correlated with June temperatures and positively associated with July and August precipitation. We found that radial growth of young trees from Koritnik site is limited by the combined effect of temperatures and summer drought stress. In high elevation sites, temperature is expected to control the

  2. Changes in Vegetation Growth Dynamics and Relations with Climate over China’s Landmass from 1982 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Xu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how the dynamics of vegetation growth respond to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is critical to projecting future ecosystem dynamics and the adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, we investigated vegetated growth dynamics (annual productivity, seasonality and the minimum amount of vegetated cover in China and their relations with climatic factors during 1982–2011, using the updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS third generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI dataset and climate data acquired from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP. Major findings are as follows: (1 annual mean NDVI over China significantly increased by about 0.0006 per year from 1982 to 2011; (2 of the vegetated area in China, over 33% experienced a significant positive trend in vegetation growth, mostly located in central and southern China; about 21% experienced a significant positive trend in growth seasonality, most of which occurred in northern China (>35°N; (3 changes in vegetation growth dynamics were significantly correlated with air temperature and precipitation (p < 0.001 at a region scale; (4 at the country scale, changes in NDVI was significantly and positively correlated with annual air temperature (r = 0.52, p < 0.01 and not associated with annual precipitation (p > 0.1; (5 of the vegetated area, about 24% showed significant correlations between annual mean NDVI and air temperature (93% positive and remainder negative, and 12% showed significant correlations of annual mean NDVI with annual precipitation (65% positive and 35% negative. The spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth dynamics were controlled primarily by temperature and secondly by precipitation. Vegetation growth was also affected by human activities; and (6 monthly NDVI was significantly correlated with the

  3. Laboratory Studies of the Role of Amines in Particle Formation, Growth and Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finlayson-Pitts, Barbara J. [Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)

    2015-02-07

    Organosulfur compounds have a variety of sources, particularly biological processes in the oceans. Their oxidation in air forms sulfur dioxide, which is further oxidized to sulfuric acid, as well as methanesulfonic acid (MSA). While sulfuric acid is a well known precursor to particles in air, MSA had not been regarded as a source of new particle formation. Laboratory studies were carried out under this project that showed MSA forms new particles quite efficiently in the presence of amines and water vapor. The data could be reproduced with a relatively simple kinetics model representing cluster formation and growth, which is promising for representing this chemistry in global climate models. The initial steps in the kinetics scheme are based on quantum chemical calculations of likely clusters. The organosulfur chemistry was introduced into an atmospheric model for southern California and used to predict the impact of going to a fossil-fuel free world in which anthropogenic emissions of SO2 are removed, but the natural processes remain.

  4. Population Growth, Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Southwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Amy C; Harhay, Michael O

    2010-06-30

    PROBLEM STATEMENT: In a simple economic model, water scarcity arises as a result of an imbalance between the supply of and demand for water sources. Distribution in this setting is the source of numerous conflicts globally. APPROACH: Already, the Southwestern United States (US) suffers from annual drought and long-standing feud over natural water resources. RESULTS: Population growth in the Southwestern United States along with the continued effects of climate change (natural and anthropogenic) predicts a perpetual decline in natural water sources, such as smaller snowpacks, in the coming years. As the increasing number of communities across multiple US states that subsist off of natural water supplies face water shortages with increasing severity, further water conflict will emerge. Such conflicts become especially protracted when the diversion of water from a source of benefit to one community negatively impacts nearby communities of humans and economically vital ecosystems (e.g., marshlands or tributaries). CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS: The ensuing politics and health effects of these diversions can be complicated and future water policies both domestically and internationally are lacking. To draw attention to and stimulate discussion around the lacking policy discussion domestically, herein we document existing and emerging consequences of watery scarcity in the Southwestern United States and briefly outline past and potential future policy responses.

  5. Population Growth, Climate Change and Water Scarcity in the Southwestern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy c. Fuller

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: In a simple economic model, water scarcity arises as a result of an imbalance between the supply of and demand for water sources. Distribution in this setting is the source of numerous conflicts globally. Approach: Already, the Southwestern United States (US suffers from annual drought and long-standing feud over natural water resources. Results: Population growth in the Southwestern United States along with the continued effects of climate change (natural and anthropogenic predicts a perpetual decline in natural water sources, such as smaller snowpacks, in the coming years. As the increasing number of communities across multiple US states that subsist off of natural water supplies face water shortages with increasing severity, further water conflict will emerge. Such conflicts become especially protracted when the diversion of water from a source of benefit to one community negatively impacts nearby communities of humans and economically vital ecosystems (e.g., marshlands or tributaries. Conclusion/Recommendations: The ensuing politics and health effects of these diversions can be complicated and future water policies both domestically and internationally are lacking. To draw attention to and stimulate discussion around the lacking policy discussion domestically, herein we document existing and emerging consequences of watery scarcity in the Southwestern United States and briefly outline past and potential future policy responses.

  6. [Responses of Picea likiangensis radial growth to climate change in the Small Zhongdian area of Yunnan Province, Southwest China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhi-Jiang; Tan, Liu-Yi; Kang, Dong-Wei; Liu, Qi-Jing; Li, Jun-Qing

    2012-03-01

    Picea likiangensis (Franch. ) Pritz. primary forest is one of the dominant forest types in the Small Zhongdian area in Shangri-La County of Yunnan Province. In this paper, the responses of P. likiangensis tree-ring width to climate change were analyzed by dendrochronological methods, and the dendrochronology was built by using relatively conservative detrending negative exponential curves or linear regression. Correlation analysis and response function analysis were applied to explore the relationships between the residual chronology series (RES) and climatic factors at different time scales, and pointer year analysis was used to explain the reasons of producing narrow and wide rings. In the study area, the radial growth of P. likiangensis and the increasing air temperature from 1990 to 2008 had definite 'abruption'. The temperature and precipitation in previous year growth season were the main factors limiting the present year radial growth, and especially, the temperature in previous July played a negative feedback role in the radial growth, while the sufficient precipitation in previous July promoted the radial growth. The differences in the temperature variation and precipitation variation in previous year were the main reasons for the formation of narrow and wide rings. P. likiangensis radial growth was not sensitive to the variation of PDSI.

  7. Growth assessment of popular clones of natural rubber (Hevea brasiliensis under warm dry climatic conditions of Chattisgarh state, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishan B

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Two natural rubber (Hevea brasiliensis most popular and widely planted clones RRIM 600 and RRII 105 in the traditional region of India, were evaluated for immature growth performance in warm dry climate of Bastar region in chattisgarh state. The state is a non-tradional rubber growing region and the crop experiences severe drought in the summer months. Prolonged high temperature, low rainfall and soil moisture are the major environmental constraints affecting the performance of clones in the region. Growth performance, effect of seasonal changes on the growth in terms of girth and morphological characters of the clones was assessed. Both the clones observed satisfactory growth in the region. RRIM 600 showed over all superiority and better adaptability in the region. The mean annual girth increment of clones was 6.2 cm. highest girth contribution for both clones was recorded in the wet season, while the lowest was observed during the summer. RRIM 600 also showed more vigorous morphological growth in terms of stem height and canopy structure. Clones attain a tappable girth after the nine years of field planting in the region. Various growth parameter, overall clones performance and adaptability in the region has been discussed. The present study may provide information on the feasibility of rubber cultivation and performance of clones under adverse climate with further support in the identification of suitable best clones for such nontraditional regions.

  8. Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Aquatic Systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, J. J.; Webster, K. E.; Assel, R. A.; Bowser, C. J.; Dillon, P. J.; Eaton, J. G.; Evans, H. E.; Fee, E. J.; Hall, R. I.; Mortsch, L. R.; Schindler, D. W.; Quinn, F. H.

    1997-06-01

    increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected.Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500-600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system.

  9. Net root growth and nutrient acquisition in response to predicted climate change in two contrasting heathland species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndal, M.F.; Merrild, M.P.; Michelsen, A.;

    2013-01-01

    Accurate predictions of nutrient acquisition by plant roots and mycorrhizas are critical in modelling plant responses to climate change.We conducted a field experiment with the aim to investigate root nutrient uptake in a future climate and studied root production by ingrowth cores, mycorrhizal...... to elevated CO2. The species-specific response to the treatments suggests different sensitivity to global change factors, which could result in changed plant competitive interactions and belowground nutrient pool sizes in response to future climate change....... colonization, and fine root N and P uptake by root assay of Deschampsia flexuosa and Calluna vulgaris.Net root growth increased under elevated CO2, warming and drought, with additive effects among the factors. Arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization increased in response to elevated CO2, while ericoid mycorrhizal...

  10. [Climate-growth relationships of Picea koraiensis and causes of its recent decline in Xiaoxing' an Mountains, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Qi-chao; Wang, Xiao-chun; Xiao, Xing-wei

    2015-07-01

    Two tree-ring width chronologies of Picea koraiensis at two altitudes in Fenglin National Nature Reserve of Xiaoxing'an Mountains, China were developed by using dendrochronological methods. To identify main limiting factors of P. koraiensis radial growth at the two altitudes, the relationships between the chronologies and local temperature, precipitation, Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and large-scale climatic factors were investigated. Meanwhile, the reasons of P. koraiensis growth decline in recent years were also explored. Results showed that radial growth of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'an Mountains was mainly limited by temperatures, especially by the minimum temperature in growing season, while the limiting effect of precipitation was relatively weak. Climate responses of P. koraiensis growth at the different altitudes showed significant differences. Radial growths of P. koraiensis at the low altitude were positively correlated with precipitation in the current growth season (June-September) and whole year, and negatively correlated with soil temperatures at different depths, especially at 80 cm depth in growing season. Meanwhile, it was signi-ficantly positively correlated with PDSI in growing season. However, the relationships between radial growth of P. koraiensis at the high altitude and precipitation, air and soil temperatures, and PDSI were not significant as that at the low altitude. Growth decline of P. koraiensis in Xiaoxing'an Mountains could be related to the phase changes in Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the significant global warming since 1980. The coupling effects of the above changes might result in increased soil evaporation and exacerbated warming and drying phenomena, consequently causing the growth decline of P. koraiensis at the low altitude.

  11. Juvenile growth response of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L. to sudden change of climatic environment in SE European trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasztovits E

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to analyse provenance tests of beech situated close to the south-eastern continental limits of the species, in order to develop a response model of adaptation and plasticity of populations on evolutionary-ecological basis, following sudden climatic changes, as a result of transplanting. Modelling of juvenile height was performed with the help of ecodistance variables. The concept of transfer analysis and ecodistance is based on the hypothesis that phenotypic response to macroclimatic changes depends on the inherited adaptive potential of the population and on the magnitude and direction of experienced environmental change. In common garden experiments, the transfer to the planting site is interpreted as simulation of environmental change. The application of ecodistance of transfer for evaluating common garden experiments provides much needed quantitative information about response of tree populations to predicted climatic changes. The analysis of three field experiments of European beech in SE Europe indicates that macroclimatic adaptation patterns exist in juvenile growth and justify restrictions of use of reproductive material on the basis of evolutionary ecology. The presented model illustrates that response to climatic change is regionally divergent, depending on testing conditions and on hereditary traits. In particular, climatic warming in the central-northern part of the range may lead to production increase. However, under the stressful and uncertain conditions at the lower (xeric limit of the species, growth depression and vitality loss are predicted. The deviating behaviour of higher elevation provenances support their separate treatment. The results may be utilised in climate change adaptation and mitigation policy in forestry and nature conservation, to revise rules for use of reproductive material and also for validating evolutionary and ecological hypotheses related to climate change effects.

  12. Linking fisheries, trophic interactions and climate: threshold dynamics drive herring Clupea harengus growth in the central Baltic Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Casini, M.; Bartolino, V.; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Kornilovs, G.

    2010-01-01

    How multiple stressors influence fish stock dynamics is a crucial question in ecology in general and in fisheries science in particular. Using time-series covering a 30 yr period, we show that the body growth of the central Baltic Sea herring Clupea harengus, both in terms of condition and weight-at-age (WAA), has shifted from being mainly driven by hydro-climatic forces to an inter-specific density-dependent control. The shift in the mechanisms of regulation of herring growth is triggered by...

  13. School Climate and Bullying Victimization: A Latent Class Growth Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gage, Nicholas A.; Prykanowski, Debra A.; Larson, Alvin

    2014-01-01

    Researchers investigating school-level approaches for bullying prevention are beginning to discuss and target school climate as a construct that (a) may predict prevalence and (b) be an avenue for school-wide intervention efforts (i.e., increasing positive school climate). Although promising, research has not fully examined and established the…

  14. Temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by salmonines in Lakes Michigan and Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

    2015-01-01

    We used bioenergetics models to investigate temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, and steelhead O. mykiss in Lakes Michigan and Huron. We updated biological inputs to account for recent changes in the food webs and used temperature inputs in response to regional climate observed in the baseline period (1964–1993) and projected in the future period (2043–2070).Bioenergetics simulations were run across multiple age-classes and across all four seasons in different scenarios of prey availability. Due to the increased capacity of prey consumption, future growth and consumption by these salmonines were projected to increase substantially when prey availability was not limited. When prey consumption remained constant, future growth of these salmonines was projected to decrease in most cases but increase in some cases where the increase in metabolic cost can be compensated by the decrease in waste (egestion and excretion) loss. Consumption by these salmonines was projected to increase the most during spring and fall when prey energy densities are relatively high. Such seasonality benefits their future growth through increasing annual gross energy intake. Our results indicated that lake trout and steelhead would be better adapted to the warming climate than Chinook salmon. To maintain baseline growth into the future, an increase of 10 % in baseline prey consumption was required for Chinook salmon but considerably smaller increases, or no increases, in prey consumption were needed by lake trout and steelhead.

  15. Experimental Study of Isothermal Plate Uniformity for Blood Warmer Development using Geothermal Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrarsakti, J.; Ichsan, Y.

    2016-09-01

    This research was conducted to assess the direct use of geothermal energy for blood warmer. The heating plate was made form aluminium plates with dimensions of 100 x 200 mm and then fed from the hot water heater. Tests were conducted in the laboratory where geothermal source water is replaced with the heat generated from the heater. The hot water from the heater in the temperature range 55°C - 60°C flowed into vertical chamber. Setting the temperature of the hot water heater is done by changing the flow of hot water coming out of the heater. Results showed that the value of a standard deviation of plate temperature was about 0.42 °C, so it can be said isothermal accordance with design requirement and objective. The test data used for the analysis of the manufacture of the heating plate in the blood warmer to regulate the discharge of hot water at intervals of 21.47 mL/s to 24.8 mL/s to obtain a temperature of 37.20 °C - 40.15 °C. Geothermal energy has the potential for blood warmer because blood warmer is part of the energy cascade in a temperature range of 40°C to 60°C

  16. Climate, streamflow, and legacy effects on growth of riparian Populus angustifolia in the arid San Luis Valley, Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of the factors affecting the vigor of desert riparian trees is important for their conservation and management. I used multiple regression to assess effects of streamflow and climate (12–14 years of data) or climate alone (up to 60 years of data) on radial growth of clonal narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia), a foundation species in the arid, Closed Basin portion of the San Luis Valley, Colorado. I collected increment cores from trees (14–90 cm DBH) at four sites along each of Sand and Deadman creeks (total N = 85), including both perennial and ephemeral reaches. Analyses on trees <110 m from the stream channel explained 33–64% of the variation in standardized growth index (SGI) over the period having discharge measurements. Only 3 of 7 models included a streamflow variable; inclusion of prior-year conditions was common. Models for trees farther from the channel or over a deep water table explained 23–71% of SGI variability, and 4 of 5 contained a streamflow variable. Analyses using solely climate variables over longer time periods explained 17–85% of SGI variability, and 10 of 12 included a variable indexing summer precipitation. Three large, abrupt shifts in recent decades from wet to dry conditions (indexed by a seasonal Palmer Drought Severity Index) coincided with dramatically reduced radial growth. Each shift was presumably associated with branch dieback that produced a legacy effect apparent in many SGI series: uncharacteristically low SGI in the year following the shift. My results suggest trees in locations distant from the active channel rely on the regional shallow unconfined aquifer, summer rainfall, or both to meet water demands. The landscape-level differences in the water supplies sustaining these trees imply variable effects from shifts in winter-versus monsoon-related precipitation, and from climate change versus streamflow or groundwater management.

  17. Effect of warming and flow rate conditions of blood warmers on red blood cell integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poder, T G; Pruneau, D; Dorval, J; Thibault, L; Fisette, J-F; Bédard, S K; Jacques, A; Beauregard, P

    2016-11-01

    Fluid warmers are routinely used to reduce the risk of hypothermia and cardiac complications associated with the infusion of cold blood products. However, warming blood products could generate haemolysis. This study was undertaken to compare the impact of temperature of blood warmers on the per cent haemolysis of packed red blood cells (RBCs) heated at different flow rates as well as non-flow conditions. Infusion warmers used were calibrated at 41·5°C ± 0·5°C and 37·5°C ± 0·5°C. Cold RBC units stored at 4°C in AS-3 (n = 30), aged 30-39 days old, were divided into half units before being allocated under two different scenarios (i.e. infusion pump or syringe). Blood warmers were effective to warm cold RBCs to 37·5°C or 41·5°C when used in conjunction with an infusion pump at flow rate up to 600 ml/h. However, when the warmed blood was held in a syringe for various periods of time, such as may occur in neonatal transfusions, the final temperature was below the expected requirements with measurement as low as 33·1°C. Increasing the flow with an infusion pump increased haemolysis in RBCs from 0·2% to up to 2·1% at a flow rate of 600 ml/h regardless of the warming device used (P < 0·05). No relevant increase of haemolysis was observed using a syringe. The use of a blood warmer adjusted to 41·5°C is probably the best choice for reducing the risk of hypothermia for the patient without generating haemolysis. However, we should be cautious with the use of an infusion pump for RBC transfusion, particularly at high flow rates. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  18. Can latent heat safely warm blood? – in vitro testing of a portable prototype blood warmer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McEwen Mark P

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Trauma/retrieval patients are often in shock and hypothermic. Treatment of such patients usually involves restoring their blood volume with transfusion of blood (stored at 2°C – 6°C and/or crystalloids or colloids (stored at ambient temperature. Rapid infusion of these cold fluids can worsen or even induce hypothermia in these patients. Warming of intravenous fluids at accident sites has traditionally been difficult due to a lack of suitable portable fluid warmers that are not dependent on mains electrical or battery power. If latent heat, the heat released when a liquid solidifies (an inherently temperature limiting process can warm intravenous fluids, portable devices without a reliance on electrical energy could be used to reduce the incidence of hypothermia in trauma patients. Methods Rapid infusion of red cells into patients was timed to sample typical clinical flow rates. An approved dry heat blood warmer was compared with a prototype blood warmer using a supercooled liquid latent heat storage material, to warm red cells whilst monitoring inlet and outlet temperatures. To determine the effect of warming on red cell integrity compared to the normal storage lesion of blood, extracellular concentrations of potassium, lactate dehydrogenase and haemoglobin were measured in blood which had been warmed after storage at 2°C – 6°C for 1 to 42 days. Results A prototype latent heat fluid warmer consistently warmed red cells from approximately 4°C to approximately 35°C at typical clinical flow rates. Warming of stored blood with latent heat did not affect red cell integrity more than the approved dry heat blood warmer. Conclusion Using latent heat as an energy source can satisfactorily warm cold blood or other intravenous fluids to near body temperature, without any adverse affects.

  19. Climatic Stress during Stand Development Alters the Sign and Magnitude of Age-Related Growth Responses in a Subtropical Mountain Pine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paloma Ruiz-Benito

    Full Text Available The modification of typical age-related growth by environmental changes is poorly understood, In part because there is a lack of consensus at individual tree level regarding age-dependent growth responses to climate warming as stands develop. To increase our current understanding about how multiple drivers of environmental change can modify growth responses as trees age we used tree ring data of a mountain subtropical pine species along an altitudinal gradient covering more than 2,200 m of altitude. We applied mixed-linear models to determine how absolute and relative age-dependent growth varies depending on stand development; and to quantify the relative importance of tree age and climate on individual tree growth responses. Tree age was the most important factor for tree growth in models parameterised using data from all forest developmental stages. Contrastingly, the relationship found between tree age and growth became non-significant in models parameterised using data corresponding to mature stages. These results suggest that although absolute tree growth can continuously increase along tree size when trees reach maturity age had no effect on growth. Tree growth was strongly reduced under increased annual temperature, leading to more constant age-related growth responses. Furthermore, young trees were the most sensitive to reductions in relative growth rates, but absolute growth was strongly reduced under increased temperature in old trees. Our results help to reconcile previous contrasting findings of age-related growth responses at the individual tree level, suggesting that the sign and magnitude of age-related growth responses vary with stand development. The different responses found to climate for absolute and relative growth rates suggest that young trees are particularly vulnerable under warming climate, but reduced absolute growth in old trees could alter the species' potential as a carbon sink in the future.

  20. Testing a growth efficiency hypothesis with continental-scale phenological variations of common and cloned plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Liang; Schwartz, Mark D

    2014-10-01

    Variation in the timing of plant phenology caused by phenotypic plasticity is a sensitive measure of how organisms respond to weather and climate variability. Although continental-scale gradients in climate and consequential patterns in plant phenology are well recognized, the contribution of underlying genotypic difference to the geography of phenology is less well understood. We hypothesize that different temperate plant genotypes require varying amount of heat energy for resuming annual growth and reproduction as a result of adaptation and other ecological and evolutionary processes along climatic gradients. In particular, at least for some species, the growing degree days (GDD) needed to trigger the same spring phenology events (e.g., budburst and flower bloom) may be less for individuals originated from colder climates than those from warmer climates. This variable intrinsic heat energy requirement in plants can be characterized by the term growth efficiency and is quantitatively reflected in the timing of phenophases-earlier timing indicates higher efficiency (i.e., less heat energy needed to trigger phenophase transitions) and vice versa compared to a standard reference (i.e., either a uniform climate or a uniform genotype). In this study, we tested our hypothesis by comparing variations of budburst and bloom timing of two widely documented plants from the USA National Phenology Network (i.e., red maple-Acer rubrum and forsythia-Forsythia spp.) with cloned indicator plants (lilac-Syringa x chinensis 'Red Rothomagensis') at multiple eastern US sites. Our results indicate that across the accumulated temperature gradient, the two non-clonal plants showed significantly more gradual changes than the cloned plants, manifested by earlier phenology in colder climates and later phenology in warmer climates relative to the baseline clone phenological response. This finding provides initial evidence supporting the growth efficiency hypothesis, and suggests more work is

  1. Recent variations in NDVI-based plant growth and their relationship with climate in boreal intact forest landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, J.; Jiang, H.; Lu, X.; Zhang, X.

    2015-12-01

    Intact Forest Landscapes (IFLs), defined as large unbroken expanses of forest landscape without signs of significant human activity, have significant ecological values. Previous studies suggest a reversal in the greening of boreal plants was exhibited in the late 1990s. In this study, we focus on variations in plant growth of boreal IFLs from 2000 to 2014 and their correlation with local climatic factors between 45°N and 70°N. The average Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) during the growing season (GS, which is from April to October) derived from MOD13C2, is used as a proxy of plant growth. Compared to a significant increase in GS NDVI of boreal plants during the 1980s and early 1990s, GS NDVI of ca. 85.7% of total IFLs in the study area exhibited insignificant change after 2000. About 10.2% of total boreal IFLs exhibited significant greening (an increase in GS NDVI), and only 4.1% of the total showed significant browning (a decrease in GS NDVI) during the study period. For greening boreal IFLs, ca. 46.0% of these showed a significant correlation between GS temperature and NDVI. For browning IFLs, an increase in precipitation during the non-growing season (NGS, which is from previous November to current March) and cooling in GS and NGS were the main climatic causes for decreases of GS NDVI. However, over 65% of browning boreal IFLs did not correlate with any climatic factor, and the browning may be associated with artificial activities. About 49.4% of no-change boreal IFLs showed significant correlation between GS NDVI and climatic factors, and 72.5% of these sensitive plants exhibited a significant positive correlation between GS temperature and NDVI. On the whole, an increase in GS and NGS temperature could promote plant growth of boreal IFLs, while an increase of NGS precipitation mainly inhibited plant growth. However, nearly half of total boreal IFLs displayed no sensitivity to any climatic factors chosen in our present work.

  2. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  3. Recent NDVI-Based Variation in Growth of Boreal Intact Forest Landscapes and Its Correlation with Climatic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaxin Jin

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Intact Forest Landscape (IFL is of great value in protecting biodiversity and supporting core ecological processes. It is important to analyze the spatial variation in the growth dynamics of IFL. This study analyzed the change of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI during the growing season (April–October for boreal (45° N–70° N IFLs and the correlation with climatic variables over the period of 2000–2013. Our results show 85.5% of boreal IFLs did not show a significant change in the NDVI after 2000, and only 10.2% and 4.3% exhibited a statistically significant increase (greening or decrease (browning in NDVI, respectively. About 60.9% of the greening boreal IFLs showed that an increasing NDVI was significantly correlated to climatic variables, especially an increasing growing season temperature (over 47.0%. For browning boreal IFLs, a decrease in temperature or an increase in dormancy period precipitation could be the prime reason for a significant decrease in the NDVI. However, about 64.6% of the browning boreal IFLs were insensitive to any of the climatic variables, indicating other factors, such as fire, had caused the browning. Although it did not show a significant trend, the NDVI of 51.3% of no-change boreal IFLs significantly correlated to climatic variables, especially growing season temperatures (over 37.6%.

  4. The Response of Tree-Ring Growth to Climate at Upper Timberline of Southern Aspect of Mt. Taibai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Jin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the impact of climate change on vegetation in Qinling mountainous area has already been authenticated by numerous investigations, nevertheless, as the major ridge of Qinling Mountains as well as national natural conservation reserve, the ecology response of Mt. Taibai sub-alpine vegetation to climate change has not yet gained enough public attention.In this study, in accordance with the method of dendrochronology, response analysis was carried out to contrast characteristic parameters of tree-ring width chronologies for Larix chinensis from different elevations as well as their response pattern to climate change. The result showed that, Mean sensitivity, standard deviation and variance in first eigenvector are increasing with the rise of elevation, but the correlation coefficients (R1, R2, R3 were decreasing which indicated that the strength of the tree’s common or relative response to environment was decreasing with altitude. Precipitation had stronger correlation with the tree-ring radial growth than air temperature in both of the sites, during the growing season, trees in lower altitude had better correlation with temperature than in higher altitude, thus showing the different response to climate between the two different sites.

  5. Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frenne, De P.; Coomes, D.; Schrijver, De A.; Staelens, J.; Alexander, J.M.; Bernhardt-Romermann, M.; Brunet, J.; Chabrerie, O.; Chiarucci, A.; Ouden, den J.

    2014-01-01

    Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal en

  6. Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt

    OpenAIRE

    Elshennawy, Abeer; Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change. Adaptation planning requires a forward-looking assessment of climate change impacts on economic performance at economy-wide and sectoral level and a cost-benefit assessment of conceivable adaptation investments. This study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model w...

  7. Tree growth and its climate signal along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients: comparison of tree rings between Finland and the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Lixin; Suvanto, Susanne; Nöjd, Pekka; Henttonen, Helena M.; Mäkinen, Harri; Zhang, Qi-Bin

    2017-06-01

    Latitudinal and altitudinal gradients can be utilized to forecast the impact of climate change on forests. To improve the understanding of how these gradients impact forest dynamics, we tested two hypotheses: (1) the change of the tree growth-climate relationship is similar along both latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, and (2) the time periods during which climate affects growth the most occur later towards higher latitudes and altitudes. To address this, we utilized tree-ring data from a latitudinal gradient in Finland and from two altitudinal gradients on the Tibetan Plateau. We analysed the latitudinal and altitudinal growth patterns in tree rings and investigated the growth-climate relationship of trees by correlating ring-width index chronologies with climate variables, calculating with flexible time windows, and using daily-resolution climate data. High latitude and altitude plots showed higher correlations between tree-ring chronologies and growing season temperature. However, the effects of winter temperature showed contrasting patterns for the gradients. The timing of the highest correlation with temperatures during the growing season at southern sites was approximately 1 month ahead of that at northern sites in the latitudinal gradient. In one out of two altitudinal gradients, the timing for the strongest negative correlation with temperature at low-altitude sites was ahead of treeline sites during the growing season, possibly due to differences in moisture limitation. Mean values and the standard deviation of tree-ring width increased with increasing mean July temperatures on both types of gradients. Our results showed similarities of tree growth responses to increasing seasonal temperature between latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. However, differences in climate-growth relationships were also found between gradients due to differences in other factors such as moisture conditions. Changes in the timing of the most critical climate variables

  8. Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

    2008-12-28

    Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

  9. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvire Bestion

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

  10. Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

    2015-10-01

    Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

  11. Climate, intrinsic water-use efficiency and tree growth over the past 150 years in humid subtropical China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dawen; Fang, Keyan; Li, Yingjun; Chen, Deliang; Liu, Xiaohong; Dong, Zhipeng; Zhou, Feifei; Guo, Guoyang; Shi, Feng; Xu, Chenxi; Li, Yanping

    2017-01-01

    Influence of long-term changes in climate and CO2 concentration on intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), defined as the ratio between net photosynthesis (A) and leaf conductance (g), and tree growth remain not fully revealed in humid subtropical China, which is distinct from other arid subtropical areas with dense coverage of broadleaf forests. This study presented the first tree-ring stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and iWUE series of Pinus massoniana from 1865 to 2013 in Fujian province, humid subtropical China, and the first tree-ring width standard chronology during the period of 1836–2013 for the Niumulin Nature Reserve (NML). Tree-ring width growth was limited by precipitation in July-August (r = 0.40, p hours (r = -0.66, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = 0.58, p < 0.001) in September-October, a season with rapid latewood formation in this area. The iWUE increased by 42.6% and the atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) explained 92.6% of the iWUE variance over the last 150 years. The steady increase in iWUE suggests an active response with a proportional increase in intercellular CO2 concentration (ci) in response to increase in ca. The contribution of iWUE to tree growth in the study region is not conspicuous, which points to influences of other factors such as climate. PMID:28182751

  12. The last interglacial climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Langen, Peter L.; Vinther, Bo M.

    2016-01-01

    The last interglacial climate was influenced by substantial changes in the annual insolation cycle that led to a warmer climate state with pronounced high northern latitude warming. We analyze the impact of the insolation changes 125,000 years before present using an equilibrium snapshot simulation...... with the EC-Earth coupled climate model at high spatial resolution. Using additional atmosphere-only simulations, we separate the direct impact from the changed insolation from the secondary contribution from changed sea surface conditions. These simulations are forced with a combination of last interglacial...

  13. The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardiman, Jill M.; Mesa, Matthew G.

    2013-01-01

    Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2°C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5%. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.

  14. Climatic change and forest productivity; Les changements climatiques et la productivite forestiere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernier, P. [Natural Resources Canada, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre; Houle, D. [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    The main climatic factors affecting forest growth and ecosystems were reviewed in an effort to help forest managers develop adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models that simulate the climate in North America over a long-term period have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will rise. Higher amounts of precipitation are also predicted. Higher temperatures will result in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on tree growth. A tree-ring analysis, which was conducted to determine the most important climatic factors governing growth and regeneration of trees, showed that precipitation is the most important factor governing interannual variation in tree growth. Continued warming is expected to lead to drier conditions and more severe droughts. These changes are likely to lead to an increase in the area of forests affected by natural disturbances such as fire and insects. The study also identified links between disturbance attributes of forests and biomass accumulation patterns in order to improve broad-scale modelling of changes in forest biomass. It was concluded that although climate change poses a risk to future forest productivity, some of the negative impacts may be offset by the benefits of longer growing seasons, warmer soils and CO{sub 2} fertilization. tabs., figs.

  15. Growth-climate relations of Larix decidua and Pinus cembra in an inner-alpine dry valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obojes, Nikolaus; Meurer, Armin; Tasser, Erich; Mayr, Stefan; Oberhuber, Walter; Tappeiner, Ulrike

    2016-04-01

    Due to climate change, increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation are expected for the southern part of the Alps. To estimate possible effects on growth conditions in mountain forests we investigated climate to tree growth relations along an elevation gradient in one of the driest regions in the Alps, the LTSER site Matsch/Mazia in South Tyrol, Italy. Besides Picea abies (27%), Larix decidua (42%) and Pinus cembra (25%) are the two most abundant tree species in the study area. While Pinus cembra is restricted to the sub-alpine zone, Larix decidua is ranging from the lowest parts of the study area up to the tree line, especially at lower elevations also due to reforestation efforts of heavily eroding pastures in the past 120 years and traditional silvopastural systems which promote Larch. The reaction of the two species to changing climatic conditions during the last 150 years were analyzed by relating tree ring width of Larix decidua from 8 sites at elevations from 1070 to 2430 m a.s.l. and of Pinus cembra from 5 sites ranging from 2030 to 2430 m a.s.l. at SE- and NW-exposed slopes to temperature and precipitation records from the nearby station at Marienberg (1310 m a.s.l.) dating back to 1860. Overall, basal area increment was highest at sites at about 2000 m a.s.l and decreased at higher and for Larch at lower sites. At lower elevations up to 1750 m a.s.l. growth rates of Larix decidua generally decreased during the last 15 years, especially during and after the 2003 heat wave, after increasing from the 1950s to the 1980s . On the contrary, at elevations of more than 2000 m a.s.l., growth of both Larch and Pinus cembra increased since the 1990s. Growth-climate correlations and extreme year analysis show a similar results: at low-elevation sites, growth was correlated positively to precipitation and reacted positively to wet and cold years and negatively to hot and dry years. On the other hand, growth was positively correlated to temperature at the

  16. Growth-Climate Response of Young Turkey Oak (Quercus cerris L. Coppice Forest Stands along Longitudinal Gradient in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merita Stafasani

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L. is the most widespread species in Albania and less investigated from dendroclimatological point of view. Previous studies have reported that Q. cerris is sensitive to the environment when growing at different latitudes and ecological conditions. Based on this fact we have explored the response of different Q. cerris populations located along the longitudinal gradient. Materials and Methods: The stem discs were sampled from six sites (Kukes, Diber, Rreshen, Ulez, Elbasan, Belsh along longitudinal gradient ranging from north-east to central Albania. All oak forests stands grow under the influence of specific local Mediterranean climate. Tree-ring widths were measured to the nearest 0.001 mm using a linear table, LINTAB and the TSAP-Win program. Following the standard dendrochronological procedures residual tree-ring width chronologies were built for each site. Statistical parameters commonly used in dendrochronology were calculated for each site chronology. Relations between the tree-ring chronologies were explored using Hierarchical Factor Classification (HFC and Principal Component Analysis (PCA, while the radial growth-climate relationship was analyzed through correlation analysis using a 19-month window from April in the year prior to tree-ring formation (year t - 1 until October in the year of growth (year t. Results and Conclusions: The length of the site chronologies ranged from 16 to 36 years, with the Elbasan site chronology being the longest and the Belsh site chronology the shortest one. Trees at lower elevation were younger than trees at higher elevation. Statistical parameters (mean sensitivity (MS and auto correlation (AC of site chronologies were different among them and lower values of AC1 showed a weaker dependence of radial growth from climatic conditions of the previous growing year. Principal component analysis showed that Belsh, Rreshen and Elbasan site chronologies were

  17. Geoengineering: Direct Mitigation of Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge With the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) rising to levels unprecedented in the current glacial epoch, the earth’s climate system appears to be rapidly shifting into a warmer regime....

  18. Analysis of climate variability under various scenarios for future urban growth in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Jeong, J.; Kim, Y.

    2011-12-01

    It is important to adjust urban growth data closer to reality in the regional climate model because urban changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere. Future urban growth, however, has not been considered widely in the prediction model for future climate change. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on cellular automata (CA) technique to predict the future urban growth. The target area is Seoul Metropolitan area (SMA) where the urban area explosively has expanded the most in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. The SLEUTH model was calibrated to know the pattern of the urban growth in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from Water Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then the future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario 1; SC1), (2) regional policy and urban planning scenario (Scenario 2; SC2), (3) ecologically protection scenario (Scenario 3; SC3). As a result, the urban ratios by scenarios were increased 12.87, 11.17 and 6.26 percentages of the total area for 50 years respectively. These predictions of SLEUTH model used as the boundary condition data and the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany used as the initial condition data in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We designed four different numerical experiments in accordance with the four scenarios for the urban growth (SC1, SC2, SC3 and Current condition) and carried out for 5 years (2046-2050). Overall, the increment of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase and the average wind speed to decrease in the

  19. Chemical Hand Warmer Packet Ingestion: A Case of Elemental Iron Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiland, Jessica L; Sherrow, Leighanne K; Jayant, Deepak A; Katz, Kenneth D

    2017-09-01

    For individuals who work outdoors in the winter or play winter sports, chemical hand warmers are becoming increasingly more commonplace because of their convenience and effectiveness. A 32-year-old woman with a history of chronic pain and bipolar disorder presented to the emergency department complaining of a "warm sensation" in her mouth and epigastrium after reportedly ingesting the partial contents of a chemical hand warmer packet containing between 5 and 8 g of elemental iron. She had been complaining of abdominal pain for approximately 1 month and was prescribed unknown antibiotics the previous day. The patient denied ingestion of any other product or medication other than what was prescribed. A serum iron level obtained approximately 6 hours after ingestion measured 235 micrograms/dL (reference range 40-180 micrograms/dL). As the patient demonstrated no new abdominal complaints and no evidence of systemic iron toxicity, she was discharged uneventfully after education. However, the potential for significant iron toxicity exists depending on the extent of exposure to this or similar products. Treatment for severe iron toxicity may include fluid resuscitation, whole bowel irrigation, and iron chelation therapy with deferoxamine. Physicians should become aware of the toxicity associated with ingestion of commercially available hand warmers. Consultation with a medical toxicologist is recommended. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Honeybees prefer warmer nectar and less viscous nectar, regardless of sugar concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolson, Susan W; de Veer, Leo; Köhler, Angela; Pirk, Christian W W

    2013-09-22

    The internal temperature of flowers may be higher than air temperature, and warmer nectar could offer energetic advantages for honeybee thermoregulation, as well as being easier to drink owing to its lower viscosity. We investigated the responses of Apis mellifera scutellata (10 colonies) to warmed 10% w/w sucrose solutions, maintained at 20-35°C, independent of low air temperatures, and to 20% w/w sucrose solutions with the viscosity increased by the addition of the inert polysaccharide Tylose (up to the equivalent of 34.5% sucrose). Honeybee crop loads increased with nectar temperature, as did the total consumption of sucrose solutions over 2 h by all bees visiting the feeders. In addition, the preference of marked honeybees shifted towards higher nectar temperatures with successive feeder visits. Crop loads were inversely proportional to the viscosity of the artificial nectar, as was the total consumption of sucrose solutions over 2 h. Marked honeybees avoided higher nectar viscosities with successive feeder visits. Bees thus showed strong preferences for both warmer and less viscous nectar, independent of changes in its sugar concentration. Bees may benefit from foraging on nectars that are warmer than air temperature for two reasons that are not mutually exclusive: reduced thermoregulatory costs and faster ingestion times due to the lower viscosity.

  1. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  2. Developing robust crop plants for sustaining growth and yield under adverse climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural production and quality are expected to suffer from adverse changes in climatic conditions, including global warming, and this will affect worldwide human and animal food security. Global warming has been shown to negatively impact crop yield and therefore will affect sustainability of a...

  3. Canopy accession strategies and climate-growth relationships in Acer Rubrum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin L. Hart; Megan L. Buchanan; Scott J. Torreano

    2012-01-01

    A pervasive pattern of forest composition change is occurring throughout the Central Hardwood Forest of the eastern US. Acer rubrum has invaded the understory of Quercus stands across a variety of site types. The proliferation of A. rubrum, and that of other shade-tolerant mesophytes, inhibits the regeneration of Quercus. Without alterations in disturbance or climate...

  4. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Andrew, R.M.; Rogelj, J.; Schaeffer, M.; Vuuren, van D.P.

    2014-01-01

    Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In sp

  5. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Andrew, R.M.; Rogelj, J.; Schaeffer, M.; Vuuren, van D.P.

    2014-01-01

    Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In

  6. Growth trends of beech and Norway spruce in Switzerland: The role of nitrogen deposition, ozone, mineral nutrition and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Sabine; Schindler, Christian; Rihm, Beat

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the effects of nitrogen deposition, ozone and climate on tree growth is important for planning sustainable forest management also in the future. The complex interplay of all these factors cannot be covered by experiments. Here we use observational data of mature forests for studying associations of various biotic and abiotic factors with tree growth. A 30year time series on basal area increment of Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies Karst. in Switzerland was analyzed to evaluate the development in relation to a variety of predictors. Basal area increment of Fagus sylvatica has clearly decreased during the observation period. For Picea abies no trend was observed. N deposition of more than 26 (beech) or 20-22kgNha(-1)year(-1) (Norway spruce) was negatively related with basal area increment, in beech stronger than in Norway spruce. High N deposition loads and low foliar K concentrations in Fagus were correlated with increased drought sensitivity. High air temperatures in winter were negatively related with basal area increment in Norway spruce in general and in beech at high N:Mg ratio or high N deposition while on an average the relation was positive in beech. Fructification in beech was negatively related to basal area increment. The increase of fructification observed during the last decades contributed thus to the growth decrease. Ozone flux was significantly and negatively correlated with basal area increment both in beech and Norway spruce. The results show clear non-linear effects of N deposition on stem increment of European beech and Norway spruce as well as strong interactions with climate which have contributed to the growth decrease in beech and may get more important in future. The results not only give suggestions for ecological processes but also show the potential of an integral evaluation of observational data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Climate change at northern latitudes: rising atmospheric humidity decreases transpiration, N-uptake and growth rate of hybrid aspen.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvo Tullus

    Full Text Available At northern latitudes a rise in atmospheric humidity and precipitation is predicted as a consequence of global climate change. We studied several growth and functional traits of hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L.×P. tremuloides Michx. in response to elevated atmospheric humidity (on average 7% over the ambient level in a free air experimental facility during three growing seasons (2008-2010 in Estonia, which represents northern temperate climate (boreo-nemoral zone. Data were collected from three humidified (H and three control (C plots, and analysed using nested linear models. Elevated air humidity significantly reduced height, stem diameter and stem volume increments and transpiration of the trees whereas these effects remained highly significant also after considering the side effects from soil-related confounders within the 2.7 ha study area. Tree leaves were smaller, lighter and had lower leaf mass per area (LMA in H plots. The magnitude and significance of the humidity treatment effect--inhibition of above-ground growth rate--was more pronounced in larger trees. The lower growth rate in the humidified plots can be partly explained by a decrease in transpiration-driven mass flow of NO(3 (- in soil, resulting in a significant reduction in the measured uptake of N to foliage in the H plots. The results suggest that the potential growth improvement of fast-growing trees like aspens, due to increasing temperature and atmospheric CO(2 concentration, might be smaller than expected at high latitudes if a rise in atmospheric humidity simultaneously takes place.

  8. A Global Perspective on Warmer Droughts as a Key Driver of Forest Disturbances and Tree Mortality (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    Recent global warming, in concert with episodic droughts, is causing elevated levels of both chronic and acute forest water stress across large regions. Such increases in water stress affect forest dynamics in multiple ways, including by amplifying the incidence and severity of many significant forest disturbances, particularly drought-induced tree mortality, wildfire, and outbreaks of damaging insects and diseases. Emerging global-scale patterns of drought-related forest die-off are presented, including a newly updated map overview of documented drought- and heat-induced tree mortality events from around the world, demonstrating the vulnerability of all major forest types to forest drought stress, even in typically wet environments. Comparative patterns of drought stress and associated forest disturbances are reviewed for several regions (southwestern Australia, Inner Asia, western North America, Mediterranean Basin), including interactions among climate and various disturbance processes. From the Southwest USA, research is presented that derives a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the most regionally-widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii), demonstrating recent escalation of FDSI to extreme levels relative to the past 1000 years, due to both drought and especially warming. This new work further highlights strong correlations between drought stress and amplified forest disturbances (fire, bark beetle outbreaks), and projects that by CE 2050 anticipated regional warming will cause mean FDSI values to reach historically unprecedented levels that may exceed thresholds for the survival of current tree species in large portions of their current range in the Southwest. Similar patterns of recent climate-amplified forest disturbance risk are apparent from a variety of relatively dry regions across this planet, and given climate projections for substantially warmer temperatures and greater drought stress

  9. Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Moran, Edward H.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Dey, Rima

    2017-01-01

    We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

  10. Evaluating the growth parameters of soybean in response to plant growth promoting fungi under Mazandaran climate conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mohammad yazdani

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In low-input cropping systems, the natural roles of microorganisms in maintaining soil fertility may be more important than conventional system. In order to investigate the effects of plant growth promoting fungi on improvement of growth and development in soybean (cv: JK an experiment was conducted at the research farm of Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University during the 2011-2012 growing seasons. Treatments were arranged in a factorial experiment based a completely randomized block design with three replications. The first factor was six levels of fungi: inoculation T. harzianum and AMF genus Glumus: G. mosseae, G. intraradices, and co-inoculation of T. harzianum + G. mosseae, T. harzianum + G. intraradices and non-inoculation (control. The second factor was three levels of phosphorus (0, 70 and 140 kg.ha-1 from superphosphate trip. Results showed that inoculation of T. harzianum and G. mosseae significantly had maximum chlorophyll content up to 17% and 16% at reduced phosphorus dosage (70 kg.ha-1 and conventional phosphorus dosage as compared to the control respectively. The greatest effect was recorded at reduced phosphorus dosage (70 kg.ha-1 and conventional phosphorus dosage significant increase in terms of chlorophyll content. In addition, the dry weights and chlorophyll content of soybean plants in reduced phosphorous dosage (70 kg.ha-1 and co-inoculated with T. harzianum + G. mosseae as well as conventional phosphorous dosage were significantly higher than the non-inoculated plants. In this experiment, at reduce phosphate fertilizer (P0%: 0 treatment, not affected of plant growth promoting fungi compared to control. But, reduced phosphorous dosage (70 kg.ha-1 was more affected.

  11. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  12. Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

    2015-01-01

    An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

  13. Topography- and Species-Dependent Climatic Responses in Radial Growth of Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii in the Luyashan Mountains of North-Central China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wentao Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dendroecological techniques were used to examine the relationships between topographic aspects, climate factors and radial growth of Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii in Luyashan Mountains, North-Central China. Four sites were selected at timberline and totally 67 trees and 134 cores were collected. Pearson correlation and regression surface analysis were conducted to reveal the growth-climate relationships. The results indicated that the two species both showed significant negative correlations with temperature during preceding November on the two topographic aspects. On both slope aspects, growth of P. meyeri exhibited significant negative correlations with precipitation in current June, whereas growth of L. principis-rupprechtii showed significant negative correlations with precipitation in preceding September. On north-facing slope, tree growth was limited by low temperature in early growing season, which not shown on south-facing slope. If climate warming continues, L. principis-rupprechtii may be more favored and a reverse between relationships with temperature and precipitation maybe occur in growth of trees. Treeline position on the north-facing slope may possess a greater potential for elevation shifting than the south-facing slope. Our results supply useful information for discussing the potential effect of future climate on the forest growth in North-Central China.

  14. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

    2017-01-01

    The Blue Mountains Adaptation Partnership was developed to identify climate change issues relevant to resource management in the Blue Mountains region, to find solutions that can minimize negative effects of climate change, and to facilitate transition of diverse ecosystems to a warmer climate. Partnering organizations included three national forests (Malheur, Umatilla...

  15. Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump, Alistair S; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

    2017-09-01

    Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This

  16. Are changes in the mean or variability of climate signals more important for long-term stochastic growth rate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo García-Carreras

    Full Text Available Population dynamics are affected by changes in both the mean and standard deviation of climate, e.g., changes in average temperature are likely to affect populations, but so are changes in the strength of year-to-year temperature variability. The impacts of increases in average temperature are extensively researched, while the impacts of changes in climate variability are less studied. Is the greater attention given to changes in mean environment justified? To help answer this question we developed a simple population model, explicitly linked to an environmental process. We used the model to compare the sensitivities of a population's long-term stochastic growth rate, a measure of fitness, to changes in the mean and standard deviation of the environment. Results are interpreted in light of a comparative analysis of the relative magnitudes of change in means and standard deviations of biologically relevant climate variables in the United States. Results show that changes in the variability of the environment can be more important for many populations. Changes in mean conditions are likely to have a greater impact than changes in variability on populations far from their ideal environment, for example, populations near species range boundaries and potentially of conservation concern. Populations near range centres and close to their ideal environment are more likely to be affected by changes in variability. Among pest and insect disease vectors, as well as species of commercial value, populations likely to be of greatest economic and public health significance are those near species range centers, living in a near-ideal environment for the species. Observed changes in the variability of climate variables may benefit these populations.

  17. The impact of atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in Europe using two empirical modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbertin, M.; Solberg, S.; Laubhann, D.; Sterba, H.; Reinds, G. J.; de Vries, W.

    2009-04-01

    growth was then calculated as actual growth in % of expected growth. The site productivity was either taken from expert estimates or computed from for each species from three site index curves from northern, central and southern Europe. Requirements for plot selection were different for both methods, resulting in 382 plots selected for the tree-individual approach and 363 plots for the stand growth model approach. Using a mixed model approach, the individual tree-based models for all species showed a high goodness of fit with Pseudo-R2 between 0.33 and 0.44. Diameter at breast height and basal area of larger trees were highly influential variables in all models. Increasing temperature showed a positive effect on growth for all species except Norway spruce. Nitrogen deposition showed a positive impact on growth for all four species. This influence was significant with p Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach. For. Ecol. Manage. (2009) doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.057.

  18. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Hoymann

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

  19. Climatic sensitivity, water-use efficiency, and growth decline in boreal jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests in Northern Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Rachel; Bell, F. Wayne; Silva, Lucas C. R.; Cecile, Alice; Horwath, William R.; Anand, Madhur

    2016-10-01

    Rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide (atmCO2) levels are known to stimulate photosynthesis and increase intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) in trees. Stand-level increases in iWUE depend on the physiological response of dominant species to increases in atmCO2, while tree-level response to increasing atmCO2 depends on the balance between the direct effects of atmCO2 on photosynthetic rate and the indirect effects of atmCO2 on drought conditions. The aim of this study was to characterize the response of boreal jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stands in Northern Ontario to changes in atmCO2 and associated climatic change over the past 100 years. The impact of changes in growing season length, temperature, and precipitation, as well as atmCO2 on tree growth, was determined using stable carbon isotopes and dendrochronological analysis. Jack pine stands in this study were shown to be in progressive decline. As expected, iWUE was found to increase in association with rising atmCO2. However, increases in iWUE were not directly coupled with atmCO2, suggesting that the degree of iWUE improvement is limited by alternative factors. Water-use efficiency was negatively associated with tree growth, suggesting that warming- and drought-induced stomatal closure has likely led to deviations from expected atmCO2-enhanced growth. This finding corroborates that boreal forest stands are likely to face continued stress under future climatic warming.

  20. Occurrence of annual growth rings in Rhizophora mangle in a region with low climate seasonality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Brunna T; Estrada, Gustavo C D; Soares, Mário L G; Callado, Cátia H

    2016-01-01

    The formation of annual growth rings has been confirmed for several mangrove species in the last decade, among which is the Rhizophora mangle. However, the record of annual rings for this species was made in a region with high hydric seasonality, a widely recognized induction factor of annual rings in tropical species. In this sense, the present study aimed to verify the occurrence of annual growth rings in R. mangle in the mangroves of Guaratiba (Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil), a region with low hydric seasonality. For this purpose, the crossdating technique was applied in ten trees collected with known age (seven years). The growth rings are characterized by alternating layers of low vessel density (earlywood) and high vessel density (latewood). Multiple regression analysis indicated that growth rings width variation is driven by precipitation, water surplus, water deficit and water storage. Crossdating analysis confirmed the existence of annual growth rings in the R. mangle in Guaratiba. This discovery in a region with low hydric seasonality increases the dendrocronological potential of this species and suggests the importance of biological factors (eg. phenological behavior) as complementary inductors for the formation of growth rings in this species.

  1. Occurrence of annual growth rings in Rhizophora mangle in a region with low climate seasonality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BRUNNA T. SOUZA

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The formation of annual growth rings has been confirmed for several mangrove species in the last decade, among which is the Rhizophora mangle. However, the record of annual rings for this species was made in a region with high hydric seasonality, a widely recognized induction factor of annual rings in tropical species. In this sense, the present study aimed to verify the occurrence of annual growth rings in R. mangle in the mangroves of Guaratiba (Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, a region with low hydric seasonality. For this purpose, the crossdating technique was applied in ten trees collected with known age (seven years. The growth rings are characterized by alternating layers of low vessel density (earlywood and high vessel density (latewood. Multiple regression analysis indicated that growth rings width variation is driven by precipitation, water surplus, water deficit and water storage. Crossdating analysis confirmed the existence of annual growth rings in the R. mangle in Guaratiba. This discovery in a region with low hydric seasonality increases the dendrocronological potential of this species and suggests the importance of biological factors (eg. phenological behavior as complementary inductors for the formation of growth rings in this species.

  2. Tree growth and its climate signal along latitudinal and altitudinal gradients: comparison of tree rings between Finland and the Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Lyu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Latitudinal and altitudinal gradients can be utilized to forecast the impact of climate change on forests. To improve the understanding of how these gradients impact forest dynamics, we tested two hypotheses: (1 the change of the tree growth–climate relationship is similar along both latitudinal and altitudinal gradients, and (2 the time periods during which climate affects growth the most occur later towards higher latitudes and altitudes. To address this, we utilized tree-ring data from a latitudinal gradient in Finland and from two altitudinal gradients on the Tibetan Plateau. We analysed the latitudinal and altitudinal growth patterns in tree rings and investigated the growth–climate relationship of trees by correlating ring-width index chronologies with climate variables, calculating with flexible time windows, and using daily-resolution climate data. High latitude and altitude plots showed higher correlations between tree-ring chronologies and growing season temperature. However, the effects of winter temperature showed contrasting patterns for the gradients. The timing of the highest correlation with temperatures during the growing season at southern sites was approximately 1 month ahead of that at northern sites in the latitudinal gradient. In one out of two altitudinal gradients, the timing for the strongest negative correlation with temperature at low-altitude sites was ahead of treeline sites during the growing season, possibly due to differences in moisture limitation. Mean values and the standard deviation of tree-ring width increased with increasing mean July temperatures on both types of gradients. Our results showed similarities of tree growth responses to increasing seasonal temperature between latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. However, differences in climate–growth relationships were also found between gradients due to differences in other factors such as moisture conditions. Changes in the timing of the most

  3. Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

    2015-10-01

    Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected.

  4. Tracking climate impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Ries, Leslie; Reeves, Rick; Regetz, James; Oberhauser, Karen S.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate on migratory species is complicated by the fact that these species travel through several climates that may be changing in diverse ways throughout their complete migratory cycle. Most studies are not designed to tease out the direct and indirect effects of climate at various stages along the migration route. We assess the impacts of spring and summer climate conditions on breeding monarch butterflies, a species that completes its annual migration cycle over several generations. No single, broad-scale climate metric can explain summer breeding phenology or the substantial year-to-year fluctuations observed in population abundances. As such, we built a Poisson regression model to help explain annual arrival times and abundances in the Midwestern United States. We incorporated the climate conditions experienced both during a spring migration/breeding phase in Texas as well as during subsequent arrival and breeding during the main recruitment period in Ohio. Using data from a state-wide butterfly monitoring network in Ohio, our results suggest that climate acts in conflicting ways during the spring and summer seasons. High spring precipitation in Texas is associated with the largest annual population growth in Ohio and the earliest arrival to the summer breeding ground, as are intermediate spring temperatures in Texas. On the other hand, the timing of monarch arrivals to the summer breeding grounds is not affected by climate conditions within Ohio. Once in Ohio for summer breeding, precipitation has minimal impacts on overall abundances, whereas warmer summer temperatures are generally associated with the highest expected abundances, yet this effect is mitigated by the average seasonal temperature of each location in that the warmest sites receive no benefit of above average summer temperatures. Our results highlight the complex relationship between climate and performance for a migrating species and suggest that attempts to

  5. Warmer night-time temperature promotes microbial heterotrophic activity and modifies stream sediment community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freixa, Anna; Acuña, Vicenç; Casellas, Maria; Pecheva, Stoyana; Romaní, Anna M

    2017-09-01

    Diel temperature patterns are changing because of global warming, with higher temperatures being predicted to be more pronounced at night. Biological reactions are temperature dependent, with some occurring only during the daylight hours (e.g., light photosynthesis) and other during the entire day (e.g., respiration). Consequently, we expect the modification of daily temperature cycles to alter microbial biological reactions in stream sediments. Here, we aimed to study the effect of warming and changes of the diel temperature patterns on stream sediment biofilm functions tied to organic carbon decomposition, as well as on biofilm meiofaunal community structure. We performed an eight-week experiment with 12 artificial streams subjected to three different diel temperature patterns: warming, warmer nights and control. Significant effects of warming on biofilm function and structure were mainly detected in the long term. Our results showed that warming altered biofilm function, especially in the warmer nights' treatment, which enhanced β-glucosidase enzyme activity. Interestingly, clear opposite diel patterns were observed for dissolved organic carbon and β-glucosidase activity, suggesting that, at night, sediment bacteria quickly consume the input of photosynthetic dissolved organic carbon labile compounds created during light-time. The biofilm structure was also altered by warming, as both warming and warmer night treatments enhanced copepod abundance and diminished abundances of turbellaria and nematodes, which, in turn, controlled bacterial, algal and ciliate communities. Overall, we conclude that warming has strong effect on sediment biofilm structure and enhanced microbial organic matter degradation which might, consequently, affect higher trophic levels and river carbon cycling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Growth responses to climate in a multi-species tree-ring network in the western Carpathian Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buntgen, U.; Frank, D.C.; Verstege, A.; Esper, J. [Swiss Federal Research Inst. WSL, Birmensdorf (Switzerland); Kaczka, R.J. [Univ. of Silesia, Sosnowiec (Poland). Faculty of Earth Science; Zwijacz-Kozica, T. [Tatra National Park, Zakopane (Poland)

    2007-05-15

    In order to properly assess future forest productivity, vegetation dynamics, plant diversity, and species richness, it is important to examine tree growth responses to climatic change and to evaluate tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions. Although physiological studies provide evidence on how trees react to forcing agents, physiological studies of the longer-term responses of tree suffering are limited. Tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements provide an alternative approach to information on past growth rates. Radial growth of trees from higher elevations typically reflect temperature variations, while radial growth of trees from lower elevations normally mirrors precipitation changes. However, efforts to define growth responses in terms of a single controlling factor often fail because of the co-variation of various climatic parameters and complex plant physiological reactions and processes. This article introduced a tree-ring network from the greater Tatra region within the western Carpathian arc and presented an analysis of this network to evaluate tree growth responses to climate patterns, considering the influences of species, elevation, parameter (TRW and MXD), frequency, site ecology and previous- and current-year climatic conditions. Two multi-centennial-long temperature reconstructions based on TRW and MXD were developed for the region and compared with findings from the Alps and Central Europe. Details on physiologically induced response variations in the network's growth-climate relationship were provided, as well as temporal deviations between the reconstructed temperature histories. It was concluded that positive correlations between TRW and previous-year autumn temperatures suggest that warm October and November conditions likely support carbon storage, promote mycorrhizal root growth by maintaining soils above freezing, and favour maturation of needles, shoots and buds against early winter stress. 70 refs., 2

  7. Honeybees prefer warmer nectar and less viscous nectar, regardless of sugar concentration

    OpenAIRE

    Nicolson, Susan W.; de Veer, Leo; Köhler, Angela; Pirk, Christian W.W.

    2013-01-01

    The internal temperature of flowers may be higher than air temperature, and warmer nectar could offer energetic advantages for honeybee thermoregulation, as well as being easier to drink owing to its lower viscosity. We investigated the responses of Apis mellifera scutellata (10 colonies) to warmed 10% w/w sucrose solutions, maintained at 20–35°C, independent of low air temperatures, and to 20% w/w sucrose solutions with the viscosity increased by the addition of the inert polysaccharide Tylo...

  8. Icebreakers, Fillers y Warmers: actividades breves para la clase de inglés

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramiro DURÁN MARTÍNEZ

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available RESUMEN: En el siguiente artículo vamos a presentar diversos tipos de ejercicios de carácter breve que hemos utilizado en la clase de inglés con el objetivo de facilitar a los alumnos la práctica de la destreza oral. Estas actividades tienen distintos nombres dependiendo de la función que desempeñen: icebreakers, fillers y warmers. Se denominan icebreakers los ejercicios diseñados para romper la tensión que normalmente rodea las primeras sesiones de cualquier nueva actividad, como, por ejemplo, la primera clase de un curso de inglés. Cuando se habla de fillers se enfatiza su función comodín: tareas independientes que normalmente sirven para completar los últimos minutos del horario establecido para la clase de idiomas. El término warmer se aplica a las actividades que se llevan a cabo después de un período vacacional con el propósito de favorecer el reencuentro del alumno con el idioma que está estudiando. El principal objetivo de estos ejercicios es el desarrollo de la capacidad de los alumnos para expresarse de forma oral utilizando la lengua inglesa, concentrándose más en la práctica de la fluidez (fluency que en la precisión (accuracy. Por otra parte, sirven para favorecer la creación de vínculos de unión entre un grupo de estudiantes.ABSTRACT: In this paper, we are going to present a number of short activities that have been used in the English class in order to give students extra speaking practice. These activities were given different names depending on the role they play in the class: icebreakers, fillers and warmers. Icebreakers are fluency practice exercises produced to defuse the tension that the first sessions of every new activity imply: i.e. the first lesson of English. When talking about fillers, we refer to short independent activities that are used when the projected exercises have taken less time than expected. Warmers are also fluency practice activities devised to put students back in touch with the

  9. Monitoring climate model performance in an era of explosive data growth (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleckler, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    Increased resolution, additional complexity, and multiple realizations from a variety of experiments have all contributed to larger data volumes of climate model output and the need for a distributed approach to data delivery. The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) serves this need for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and related Model Intercomparisons (MIPs). By adhering to the Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention for model output, MIPs ensure that critical metadata can be both readily searched via ESGF and efficiently analyzed by scientists. These advancements to the organization and delivery of climate model output are now being applied to observational datasets in the obs4MIPs project initiated by NASA and the DOE. Select NASA products routinely used for model evaluation are now accessible on ESGF via the obs4MIPs project, and others are also becoming available. The simulations available from CMIP5 are being studied by hundreds of scientists, most of whom are publishing their research in peer-reviewed publications. Collectively, the resulting body of literature represents comprehensive model evaluation, however, a distillation of this work into model performance summaries is difficult. With the same data conventions and delivery methods now being exploited for model and observational data, a more integrated approach to model evaluation in MIPs may be possible. Well-established performance metrics offer one viable pathway. This presentation will describe efforts underway to exploit the above infrastructural advancements for the purpose of improving how routine model benchmarking is performed in MIPs. Technological challenges to this endeavor will be highlighted.

  10. Livestock and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godber, Olivia F; Wall, Richard

    2014-10-01

    Livestock production is an important contributor to sustainable food security for many nations, particularly in low-income areas and marginal habitats that are unsuitable for crop production. Animal products account for approximately one-third of global human protein consumption. Here, a range of indicators, derived from FAOSTAT and World Bank statistics, are used to model the relative vulnerability of nations at the global scale to predicted climate and population changes, which are likely to impact on their use of grazing livestock for food. Vulnerability analysis has been widely used in global change science to predict impacts on food security and famine. It is a tool that is useful to inform policy decision making and direct the targeting of interventions. The model developed shows that nations within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, and some Asian nations are likely to be the most vulnerable. Livestock-based food security is already compromised in many areas on these continents and suffers constraints from current climate in addition to the lack of economic and technical support allowing mitigation of predicted climate change impacts. Governance is shown to be a highly influential factor and, paradoxically, it is suggested that current self-sufficiency may increase future potential vulnerability because trade networks are poorly developed. This may be relieved through freer trade of food products, which is also associated with improved governance. Policy decisions, support and interventions will need to be targeted at the most vulnerable nations, but given the strong influence of governance, to be effective, any implementation will require considerable care in the management of underlying structural reform.

  11. Effects of climate change and population growth on the transboundary Santa Cruz aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Christopher A.; Megdal, Sharon; Oroz, Lucas Antonio; Callegary, James; Vandervoet, Prescott

    2012-01-01

    The USA and Mexico have initiated comprehensive assessment of 4 of the 18 aquifers underlying their 3000 km border. Binational management of groundwater is not currently proposed. University and agency researchers plus USA and Mexican federal, state, and local agency staff have collaboratively identified key challenges facing the Santa Cruz River Valley Aquifer located between the states of Arizona and Sonora. The aquifer is subject to recharge variability, which is compounded by climate change, and is experiencing growing urban demand for groundwater. In this paper, we briefly review past, current, and projected pressures on Santa Cruz groundwater. We undertake first-order approximation of the relative magnitude of climate change and human demand drivers on the Santa Cruz water balance. Global circulation model output for emissions scenarios A1B, B1, and A2 present mixed trends, with annual precipitation projected to vary by ±20% over the 21st century. Results of our analysis indicate that urban water use will experience greater percentage change than climate-induced recharge (which remains the largest single component of the water balance). In the Mexican portion of the Santa Cruz, up to half of future total water demand will need to be met from non-aquifer sources. In the absence of water importation and with agricultural water use and rights increasingly appropriated for urban demand, wastewater is increasingly seen as a resource to meet urban demand. We consider decision making on both sides of the border and conclude by identifying short- and longer-term opportunities for further binational collaboration on transboundary aquifer assessment.

  12. Application of a Hybrid Forest Growth Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impacts on Productivity, Nutrient Cycling and Mortality in a Montane Forest Ecosystem.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brad Seely

    Full Text Available Climate change introduces considerable uncertainty in forest management planning and outcomes, potentially undermining efforts at achieving sustainable practices. Here, we describe the development and application of the FORECAST Climate model. Constructed using a hybrid simulation approach, the model includes an explicit representation of the effect of temperature and moisture availability on tree growth and survival, litter decomposition, and nutrient cycling. The model also includes a representation of the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency, but no direct CO2 fertilization effect. FORECAST Climate was evaluated for its ability to reproduce the effects of historical climate on Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine growth in a montane forest in southern British Columbia, Canada, as measured using tree ring analysis. The model was subsequently used to project the long-term impacts of alternative future climate change scenarios on forest productivity in young and established stands. There was a close association between predicted sapwood production and measured tree ring chronologies, providing confidence that model is able to predict the relative impact of annual climate variability on tree productivity. Simulations of future climate change suggest a modest increase in productivity in young stands of both species related to an increase in growing season length. In contrast, results showed a negative impact on stemwood biomass production (particularly in the case of lodgepole pine for established stands due to increased moisture stress mortality.

  13. Recent Trends of Tree Growth in Relation to Climate Change in Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SOMOGYI, Zoltán

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper addresses two related issues. One is whether, and how, growth patterns of standmean height have changed in Hungary in the last few decades, and the other is whether recentlyobserved increases in mean annual temperature might have caused changes in growth trends. Changesin tree growth were investigated for beech (Fagus sylvatica, sessile oak (Quercus petraea andTurkey oak (Quercus cerris by comparing stand mean heights over age using data from the forestinventories of 1981 and 2001, and for sessile oak using stand mean height data from permanentsample plots since 1961. Tree growth was found to have accelerated for each species mentioned, withTurkey oak showing the largest acceleration. To study the second issue, stand mean height was relatedto elevation, wich in turn was related to mean annual temperature and precipitation. For theseanalyses, too, data of many thousands of stands in the forest inventory was used. Stand mean heightwas found to increase with decreasing elevation, i.e. with increasing mean annual temperature, foreach of the three species. As the annual precipitation and air humidity decreases with decreasingelevation, it was concluded that increases of mean annual temperature could positively have affectedtree growth in the last few decades. However, this effect is expected to be soon limited by wateravailability.

  14. Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David D. Briske; Linda A. Joyce; H. Wayne Polley; Joel R. Brown; Klaus Wolter; Jack A. Morgan; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

    2015-01-01

    The ecological consequences of climate change are predicted to vary greatly throughout US rangelands. Projections show warming and drying in the southern Great Plains and the Southwest, warmer and drier summers with reduced winter snowpack in the Northwest, and warmer and wetter conditions in the northern Great Plains. Primarily through their combined effects on soil...

  15. 大兴安岭山地樟子松径向生长对气候变暖的响应——以满归地区为例%Responses of Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica radial growth to climate warming in Great Xing'an Mountins: A case study in Mangui

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张先亮; 何兴元; 陈振举; 崔明星; 黎娜

    2011-01-01

    Based on the theory and methodology of dendrochronology, the tree ring width chronology of Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica in Mangui of Great Xing' an Mountains was developed, and the relationships between the standardized tree ring width chronology and local climate factors (temperature and precipitation) as well as the effects of climate factors on the P. Sylvestris var. Mongolica radial growth were analyzed. In this region, the mean monthly temperature in April-August of current year was the main factor limiting the radial growth, and the increasing mean monthly temperature from April to August had negative effects to the radial growth. The simulation of the variations of the radial growth by the mean monthly temperature change in April-August showed that the radial growth of P. Sylvestris var. Mongolica would present a declining trend accompanied with the warmer and drier regional climate condition.%基于树木年代学的理论和方法,建立了大兴安岭满归地区樟子松年轮宽度年表,分析了标准化年表与该区主要气候因子(温度和降水)之间的相关关系,揭示了气候因子对树木径向生长的影响.结果表明:当年4-8月的各月平均温度是研究区樟子松径向生长的主要限制因子;4-8月各月温度的不断升高对樟子松径向生长产生了不利影响.利用4-8月平均温度的变化模拟樟子松径向生长变异(1958 -2008年),发现随着区域气候暖干化趋势的加强,该区樟子松生长将呈现出衰退的特征.

  16. An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riad Sultan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available While electricity from fossil fuels is among a major source of greenhouse gases and global warming, it is also a key resource in the industrial sector geared towards exports and economic growth. This study attempts to examine the export-GDP nexus and electricity-GDP nexus in addition to a supplementary hypothesis between exports and electricity in Mauritius for the period of 1970-2009. An augmented neo-classical aggregate production model is used. The ARDL bounds test and the Johansen cointegration test confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between these variables. The multivariate Granger-causality analysis indicates that electricity and exports Granger-cause economic growth in the long-run. Electricity remains a significant causal variable in the short-run and is also found to lead exports. The empirical findings suggest that conserving electricity as a climate policy may not be conducive for exports and economic growth. The use of renewable sources for electricity may be the right option.

  17. Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

    2009-01-01

    response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...... that WDR loads can have a significant impact on mould growth especially at the edges of the walls. Finally, for the case analysed, the WDR load Causes a significant increase of indoor relative humidity and energy consumption for heating. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.......This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...

  18. The importance of weather data in crop growth simulation models and assessment of climatic change effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nonhebel, S.

    1993-01-01

    Yields of agricultural crops are largely determined by the weather conditions during the growing season. Weather data are therefore important input variables for crop growth simulation models. In practice, these data are accepted at their face value. This is not realistic. Like all measured

  19. Pliocene climate lessons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Marci M.

    2011-01-01

    The middle portion of the Pliocene Epoch—about three million years ago—is the most recent period when global temperatures were sustained at levels comparable to those we may see at the end of this century due to climate change. One way to seek a more accurate view of a warmer Earth is to look closely at that time. Paleoclimate studies of the mid-Pliocene are also emerging as a ground truth for testing the accuracy of computer models used to predict Earth’s future climate.

  20. Neotropical eocene coastal floras and [sup 18]O/[sup 16]O-estimated warmer vs. cooler equatorial waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, A. (Kent State Univ., OH (United States))

    1994-03-01

    The history of the earth's sea-surface temperature (SST) in equatorial regions during the Tertiary is unsettled because of uncertainty as to the presence and extent of glaciers during the Paleogene. The [sup 16]O trapped in glaciers and subsequently released back to the ocean basins as meltwater during interglacials affects the [sup 18]O/[sup 16]O ratio of sea water, one of the variables that must be known for oxygen isotope paleotemperature analysis of calcareous fossils. Estimates of SST range from [approximately]18 to 20 C, assuming an ice-free earth, to [approximately]28 C assuming glaciers were present in the Paleogene. Low latitude SST presently averages 28C, so the former estimate gives a value 8 to 10 C cooler than present, while the latter gives a value as warm or slightly warmer than present. The figures are important for interpreting terrestrial vegetational history because the temperature differential between low and high latitudes is a major factor in determining global climates through the control of poleward transfer of heat. The middle( ) to late Eocene Gatuncillo Formation palynoflora of Panama was deposited at the ocean-continental interface at [approximately]9[degrees]N latitude. The individual components and paleocommunities are distinctly tropical and similar to the present vegetation along the Atlantic coast of southern Central America. This is consistent with data emerging from other recently studied tropical coastal biotas and represents a contribution from paleobiology toward eventually resolving the problem of Eocene equatorial marine environments. Collectively, the evidence is beginning to favor a model of Eocene SST near present values. 50 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  1. Climate change and agroecosystems: the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Streck Nereu Augusto

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2 of the Earths atmosphere is increasing, which has the potential of increasing greenhouse effect and air temperature in the future. Plants respond to environment CO2 and temperature. Therefore, climate change may affect agriculture. The purpose of this paper was to review the literature about the impact of a possible increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield. Increasing CO2 concentration increases crop yield once the substrate for photosynthesis and the gradient of CO2 concentration between atmosphere and leaf increase. C3 plants will benefit more than C4 plants at elevated CO2. However, if global warming will take place, an increase in temperature may offset the benefits of increasing CO2 on crop yield.

  2. LAMP using a disposable pocket warmer for anthrax detection, a highly mobile and reliable method for anti-bioterrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatano, Ben; Maki, Takayuki; Obara, Takeyuki; Fukumoto, Hitomi; Hagisawa, Kohsuke; Matsushita, Yoshitaro; Okutani, Akiko; Bazartseren, Boldbaastar; Inoue, Satoshi; Sata, Tetsutaro; Katano, Harutaka

    2010-01-01

    A quick, reliable detection system is necessary to deal with bioterrorism. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is a DNA amplification method that can amplify specific DNA fragments in isothermal conditions. We developed a new highly mobile and practical LAMP anthrax detection system that uses a disposable pocket warmer without the need for electricity (pocket-warmer LAMP). In our tests, the detection limit of the pocket-warmer LAMP was 1,000 copies of Bacillus anthracis pag and capB gene fragments per tube. The pocket-warmer LAMP also detected B. anthracis genes from DNA extracted from 0.1 volume of a B. anthracis colony. The lower detection limit of the pocket-warmer LAMP was not significantly different from that of a conventional LAMP using a heat block, and was not changed under cold (4 degrees C) or warm (37 degrees C) conditions in a Styrofoam box. The pocket-warmer LAMP could be useful against bioterrorism, and as a sensitive, reliable detection tool in areas with undependable electricity infrastructures.

  3. Effects of Crop Growth on Hydrological Pro cesses in River Basins and on Regional Climate in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIN Pei-Hua; CHEN Feng; XIE Zheng-Hui

    2013-01-01

    The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES, called the RegCM3−CERES model, was used to study the effects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China. A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin, Songhua jiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin. When compared with the RegCM3 control run, RegCM3−CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temper-ature over most of the seven basins in summer, especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin. The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer (JJA) was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze, Haihe, Huaihe and Pearl Rivers. The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components (runoff, evapotranspiration and to-tal precipitation) over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation. Compared to the RegCM3, RegCM3−CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin, but reduced precipitation in the other five basins. Furthermore, a lower summer leaf area index (1.20 m2 m−2), greater root soil moisture (0.01 m3 m−3), lower latent heat flux (1.34 W m−2), and greater sensible heat flux (2.04 W m−2 ) are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.

  4. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  5. The growth and survival of plants in urban green roofs in a dry climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzaghmanesh, M; Beecham, S; Kazemi, F

    2014-04-01

    Green roofs as one of the components of water-sensitive urban design have become widely used in recent years. This paper describes performance monitoring of four prototype-scale experimental green roofs in a northern suburb of Adelaide, South Australia, undertaken over a 1-year period. Four species of indigenous Australian ground cover and grass species comprising Carpobrotus rossii, Lomandra longifolia 'Tanika,' Dianella caerula 'Breeze' and Myoporum parvifolium were planted in extensive and intensive green roof configurations using two different growing media. The first medium consisted of crushed brick, scoria, coir fibre and composted organics while the second comprised scoria, composted pine bark and hydro-cell flakes. Plant growth indices including vertical and horizontal growth rate, leaf succulence, shoot and root biomasses, water use efficiency and irrigation regimes were studied during a 12-month period. The results showed that the succulent species, C. rossii, can best tolerate the hot, dry summer conditions of South Australia, and this species showed a 100% survival rate and had the maximum horizontal growth rate, leaf succulence, shoot biomass and water use efficiency. All of the plants in the intensive green roofs with the crushed brick mix media survived during the term of this study. It was shown that stormwater can be used as a source of irrigation water for green roofs during 8 months of the year in Adelaide. However, supplementary irrigation is required for some of the plants over a full annual cycle.

  6. CLIMATE-TREE GROWTH RELATIONSHIPS OF Mimosa tenuiflora IN SEASONALLY DRY TROPICAL FOREST, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Póvoa Mattos

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Mimosa tenuiflora is a native pioneer tree from the Caatinga used commercially as firewood due to its high calorific value. It is deciduous, its trunk does not reach large diameters and it has good regrowth capacity. This study intended to determine the annual increment in diameter of M. tenuiflora and its correlation with rainfall, as basis for fuel wood management. Disks from the stem base of M. tenuiflora trees were collected in 2008 in Sertânia and Serra Talhada, Pernambuco State, from regrowth of trees coppiced in 2003 and in Limoeiro do Norte, Ceará State, from a plantation established in 2002. The trees have well-defined annual growth rings, highly correlated with annual precipitation and are well-suited for dendrochronological investigations. Forest managers must consider the influence of previous drier years in the wood production when predicting fuel wood harvesting. The high growth correlation with the previous year’s rainfall in regions where the rains start after photoperiodic stimulation indicate the necessity of understanding the growth dynamics of the species under dry forest conditions through additional ecophysiology studies.

  7. Timing of Drought Triggers Distinct Growth Responses in Holm Oak: Implications to Predict Warming-Induced Forest Defoliation and Growth Decline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Julio Camarero

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Droughts negatively impact forests by reducing growth and increasing defoliation leading to forest dieback as the climate becomes warmer and drier. However, the timing and severity of droughts determine how differently or intensively water shortage affects primary (shoot and leaf formation and secondary growth (stem radial growth based on tree-ring widths. We compare the impact of two severe droughts (2005, 2012, showing different climatic characteristics on the growth responses of three Mediterranean holm oak stands in northeastern Spain. We also quantify climate trends and drought severity. Then, we use remote sensing data to infer how those droughts impacted forest productivity. Both droughts were characterized by warm and dry spring conditions leading to reduced budburst, low shoot production, asynchrony in primary growth and decreased productivity and scarce radial growth, particularly in 2005. However, defoliation peaked in 2012 when radial growth showed minimum values and early spring and late summer temperatures reached maximum values. We discuss how uncoupled and resilient are the responses of primary and secondary growth to drought. Finally, these findings are used to gain insight into the drought-related drivers of defoliation in Spanish holm oak forests.

  8. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  9. Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

    2017-01-01

    Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

  10. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  11. Transformation of even-aged European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) to uneven-aged management under changing growth conditions caused by climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schou, Erik; Meilby, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    Transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged forest management is currently taking place throughout Europe. Climate change is, however, expected to change growth conditions—possibly quite radically. Using a deterministic approach, it was the objective of this study to investigate the influence of...

  12. Time-dependent effects of climate and drought on tree growth in a Neotropical dry forest: Short-term tolerance vs. long-term sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendivelso, H.A.; Camarero, J.J.; Gutierrez, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2014-01-01

    We analyzed the effects of climate and drought on radial growth using dendrochronology in seven deciduous tree species coexisting in a Bolivian tropical dry forest subjected to seasonal drought. Precipitation, temperature and a multiscalar drought index were related to tree-ring width data at differ

  13. Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

    2013-01-01

    The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem

  14. Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

    2014-01-01

    The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem

  15. Future Water Resources Assessment for West African River Basins Under Climate Change, Population Growth and Irrigation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisser, D.; Ibrahim, B.; Proussevitch, A. A.

    2014-12-01

    West Africa economies rely on rain-fed agriculture and are extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation. Results from the most recent generation of regional climate models suggest increases in rainy season rainfall variability (delayed rainy season onset, increased probability of dry spells, shorter rainy season duration) despite a moderate increase in rainy season total precipitation. These changes could potentially have detrimental effects on crop yield and food security. Additional pressures on water resources come from increased demand as a result of high population growth rates (~3% per year). Increased water storage and irrigation can help improve crop yields but future assessments of water resources are needed to prioritize irrigation development as an adaptation option. Increased water abstraction, in turn can impact water availability in downstream regions so that an integrated assessment of future water availability and demand is needed. We use a set of 15 RCM outputs from the CORDEX data archive to drive WBMplus, a hydrological model and simulate water availability under climate change. Based on estimated water constraints, we develop scenarios to expand irrigated areas (from the current 1% of all croplands) and calculate the effects on water scarcity, taking into account increased demand for domestic consumption and livestock water demand, at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Results around the 2050's indicate large potential to develop irrigated areas on ground and surface water and increase local water storage without increasing water scarcity downstream for many river basins in the region that could help alleviate pressures on the cropping systems and thereby increase food security.

  16. Assessing Ecological Flow Needs and Risks for Springs and Baseflow Streams With Growth and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, A. E.; Stevens, L. E.

    2008-12-01

    Ecological flow needs assessments are beginning to become an important part of regulated river management, but are more challenging for unregulated rivers. Water needs for ecosystems are greater than just consumptive use by riparian and aquatic vegetation and include the magnitude, frequency, duration and timing of flows and the depth and annual fluctuations of groundwater levels of baseflow supported streams. An ecological flow needs assessment was adapted and applied to an unregulated, baseflow dependent river in the arid to semi-arid Southwestern U.S. A separate process was developed to determine groundwater sources potentially at risk from climate, land management, or groundwater use changes in a large regional groundwater basin in the same semi-arid region. In 2007 and 2008, workshops with ecological, cultural, and physical experts from agencies, universities, tribes, and other organizations were convened. Flow-ecology response functions were developed with either conceptual or actual information for a baseflow dependent river, and scoring systems were developed to assign values to categories of risks to groundwater sources in a large groundwater basin. A reduction of baseflow to the river was predicted to lead to a decline in cottonwood and willow tree abundance, decreases in riparian forest diversity, and increases in non-native tree species, such as tamarisk. These types of forest vegetation changes would likely cause reductions or loss of some bird species. Loss of riffle habitat through declines in groundwater discharge and the associated river levels would likely lead to declines in native fish and amphibian species. A research agenda was developed to develop techniques to monitor, assess and hopefully better manage the aquifers supporting the baseflow dependent river to prevent potential threshold responses of the ecosystems. The scoring system for categories of risk was applied to four systems (aquifers, springs, standing water bodies, and streams) in

  17. Influence of life history strategies on sensitivity, population growth and response to climate for sympatric alpine birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Scott

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The life history strategy of a species can influence how populations of that species respond to environmental variation. In this study, we used a matrix modeling approach to examine how life history differences among sympatric rock and white-tailed ptarmigan affect the influence of demographic rates on population growth (λ and the potential response to a changing climate. Rock ptarmigan have a slower life history strategy than white-tailed ptarmigan in the study region with lower annual reproductive effort but higher adult survival. Results Based on data from a 5-year field study, deterministic estimates of λ indicated that populations were stable for rock ptarmigan (λ = 1.01, but declining for white-tailed ptarmigan (λ = 0.96. The demographic rates with the highest elasticity for rock ptarmigan were the survival of after-second year females, followed by juvenile survival and success of the first nest. For white-tailed ptarmigan, juvenile survival had the highest elasticity followed by success of the first nest and survival of second-year females. Incorporating stochasticity into the demographic rates led to a 2 and 4% drop in λ for rock and white-tailed ptarmigan respectively. Using data from the first three years we also found that population growth rates of both species were depressed following an increased frequency of severe years, but less so for rock ptarmigan which showed greater resilience under these conditions. Conclusions Our results provide evidence that populations of closely related species can vary in their response to environmental change as a consequence of life history differences. Rock ptarmigan, with a slower life history, are more responsive to demographic rates that influence survival and older life stages but this response is tempered by the extent of variability in each of the rates. Thus, predictions need to consider both aspects in modeling population response to a varying climate

  18. Reduced top-down control of phytoplankton in warmer climates can be explained by continuous fish reproduction.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwen, van E.; Lacerot, G.; Nes, van E.H.; Hemerik, L.; Scheffer, M.

    2007-01-01

    Large herbivorous zooplankton and spring clear-water phases occur rarely in tropical lakes. It has been hypothesized that this can be explained by latitudinal differences in the structure of the trophic cascade. Many tropical fish species reproduce throughout the year and are omnivorous. Both proper

  19. The influence of climatic and physiological performance on population dynamics of Mytilus edulis in West Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyrring, Jakob; Blicher, Martin; Sejr, Mikael Kristian

    2014-01-01

    . Results show an overall decline in blue mussel abundance along the coast from south to north Greenland. Physiological adaptation and plasticity of blue mussels was found across latitudes spanning from the temperate to the High Arctic region. Combined our results indicate that low ocean temperature per se....... The blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) has recently expanded its northern distribution in Greenland and is considered to be a sensitive indicator of climate changes. Blue mussels could be a species that would respond to a warmer climate by increased abundance and growth rates in the Arctic. However, adequate...... data on current distribution and physiological performance of blue mussels in the Arctic is lacking, and knowledge of how “climate” in a broad sense specifically influence population dynamics of this species is unknown. Here, we present data on abundance, age and mortality of blue mussels in West...

  20. Economic Growth and Climate Change: A Cross-National Analysis of Territorial and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions in High-Income Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle W. Knight

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available An important question in the literature on climate change and sustainability is the relation between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. While the “green growth” paradigm dominates in the policy arena, a growing number of scholars in wealthy countries are questioning the feasibility of achieving required emissions reductions with continued economic growth. This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions over the period 1991–2008 with a balanced data set of 29 high-income countries. We present a variety of models, with particular attention to the difference between territorial emissions and consumption-based (or carbon footprint emissions, which include the impact of international trade. The effect of economic growth is greater for consumption-based emissions than territorial emissions. We also find that over this period there is some evidence of decoupling between economic growth and territorial emissions, but no evidence of decoupling for consumption-based emissions.

  1. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, J.; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  2. Long-term data reveal a population decline of the tropical lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a negative affect of el nino years on population growth rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Stapley

    Full Text Available Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature. We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years' southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population's future persistence.

  3. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E; Cavaleri, Molly A; Reed, Sasha C

    2012-11-01

    Tropical forests play a major role in regulating global carbon (C) fluxes and stocks, and even small changes to C cycling in this productive biome could dramatically affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) concentrations. Temperature is expected to increase over all land surfaces in the future, yet we have a surprisingly poor understanding of how tropical forests will respond to this significant climatic change. Here we present a contemporary synthesis of the existing data and what they suggest about how tropical forests will respond to increasing temperatures. Our goals were to: (i) determine whether there is enough evidence to support the conclusion that increased temperature will affect tropical forest C balance; (ii) if there is sufficient evidence, determine what direction this effect will take; and, (iii) establish what steps should to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to increasing temperatures. We approach these questions from a mass-balance perspective and therefore focus primarily on the effects of temperature on inputs and outputs of C, spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale responses. We found that, while there is the strong potential for temperature to affect processes related to C cycling and storage in tropical forests, a notable lack of data combined with the physical, biological and chemical diversity of the forests themselves make it difficult to resolve this issue with certainty. We suggest a variety of experimental approaches that could help elucidate how tropical forests will respond to warming, including large-scale in situ manipulation experiments, longer term field experiments, the incorporation of a range of scales in the investigation of warming effects (both spatial and temporal), as well as the inclusion of a diversity of tropical forest sites. Finally, we highlight areas of tropical forest research where notably few data are available, including temperature effects on: nutrient cycling

  4. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E.; Cavaleri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2012-01-01

    Tropical forests play a major role in regulating global carbon (C) fluxes and stocks, and even small changes to C cycling in this productive biome could dramatically affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Temperature is expected to increase over all land surfaces in the future, yet we have a surprisingly poor understanding of how tropical forests will respond to this significant climatic change. Here we present a contemporary synthesis of the existing data and what they suggest about how tropical forests will respond to increasing temperatures. Our goals were to: (i) determine whether there is enough evidence to support the conclusion that increased temperature will affect tropical forest C balance; (ii) if there is sufficient evidence, determine what direction this effect will take; and, (iii) establish what steps should to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to increasing temperatures. We approach these questions from a mass-balance perspective and therefore focus primarily on the effects of temperature on inputs and outputs of C, spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale responses. We found that, while there is the strong potential for temperature to affect processes related to C cycling and storage in tropical forests, a notable lack of data combined with the physical, biological and chemical diversity of the forests themselves make it difficult to resolve this issue with certainty. We suggest a variety of experimental approaches that could help elucidate how tropical forests will respond to warming, including large-scale in situ manipulation experiments, longer term field experiments, the incorporation of a range of scales in the investigation of warming effects (both spatial and temporal), as well as the inclusion of a diversity of tropical forest sites. Finally, we highlight areas of tropical forest research where notably few data are available, including temperature effects on: nutrient cycling

  5. Effects of brood pheromone (SuperBoost) on consumption of protein supplement and growth of honey bee (Hymenoptera: Apidae) colonies during fall in a northern temperate climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagili, Ramesh R; Breece, Carolyn R

    2012-08-01

    Honey bee, Apis mellifera L. (Hymenoptera: Apidae), nutrition is vital for colony growth and maintenance of a robust immune system. Brood rearing in honey bee colonies is highly dependent on protein availability. Beekeepers in general provide protein supplement to colonies during periods of pollen dearth. Honey bee brood pheromone is a blend of methyl and ethyl fatty acid esters extractable from cuticle of honey bee larvae that communicates the presence of larvae in a colony. Honey bee brood pheromone has been shown to increase protein supplement consumption and growth of honey bee colonies in a subtropical winter climate. Here, we tested the hypothesis that synthetic brood pheromone (SuperBoost) has the potential to increase protein supplement consumption during fall in a temperate climate and thus increase colony growth. The experiments were conducted in two locations in Oregon during September and October 2009. In both the experiments, colonies receiving brood pheromone treatment consumed significantly higher protein supplement and had greater brood area and adult bees than controls. Results from this study suggest that synthetic brood pheromone may be used to stimulate honey bee colony growth by stimulating protein supplement consumption during fall in a northern temperate climate, when majority of the beekeepers feed protein supplement to their colonies.

  6. Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Changes to urban trees as a result of climate change were reviewed in order to aid urban forest managers in the development of adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will increase. Higher amounts of precipitation are also anticipated. Higher temperatures will results in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. Climatologists have also suggested that very hot days, winter storms and high rainfall events will increase in frequency. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on urban tree growth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will allow insect populations to build up to higher levels, and warmer and dryer summers are likely to bring longer fire seasons and more severe fires. Urban trees under stress from drought and higher temperatures will be increasingly vulnerable to existing urban stressors such as air pollution and soil compaction. However, the ecological services provided by trees will become more valuable under future climate change regimes, particularly for shading and space cooling, as well as soil aeration and stabilization and the uptake of storm water. It was suggested that future tree growth may be enhanced on sites with adequate water and nutrients, but will probably decline in areas that are already marginal. It was recommended that urban forest managers assess the present vulnerability of trees to climate-related events in order to prepare for future change. Managers should also assess their capacity to implement various strategies through municipal and provincial partnerships. It was observed that decisions taken now about forest management will play out over several decades. It was concluded that maintaining a flexible and resilient urban forest management system is the best defence, as specific climate change impacts cannot be predicted. 18 refs., 4

  7. Changes in climate-growth relationships and IADF formation over time of pine species (Pinus halepensis, P. pinaster and P. sylvestris in Mediterranean environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Olivar

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Mediterranean basin has experienced an increase in the mean annual temperature, a decrease in the mean annual precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of severe drought periods during the second half of the 20th century. However, winter and spring precipitation has increased and summer precipitation has decreased in the western Mediterranean region. Aim of the study: The objectives of the present study were: i to compare changes in climate-growth relationships over time for Pinus halepensis, P. pinaster and P. sylvestris in Spain ii to quantify the presence of intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs on the three species, and iii to define the associated climatic variables. Area of study: 26 sampling sites (8 P. halepensis sites, 8 P. pinaster sites and 10 P. sylvestris sites were selected in their distribution area in Spain. Main results: Precipitation is the main factor influencing growth and IADF occurrence in the three species. Wet periods during previous winter and spring induced higher growth rates on P. halepensis and P. pinaster, while P. sylvestris was mostly influenced by summer precipitation. However, the influence of these climatic variables on the growth of these species changed over the studied period. The increase of winter and spring precipitation combined with increasingly harsh summer climatic conditions in the second half of the 20th century may have enhanced the importance of precipitation at the beginning of the growing season on the growth of species subject to higher summer drought stress (P. halepensis and P. pinaster and increased IADF occurrence. Research highlights: Besides reflecting changes in the environmental conditions during the growing season, the inclusion of IADF detection in chronologies adds new information to ring-width chronologies, thereby improving its quality.

  8. Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Liang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the geography of phenological model prediction (first leaf represents the instantaneous effect of contemporary climate, the normalized land surface phenology potentially reveals vegetation heterogeneity that is related to climatic adaptation. The study was done at the continental scale for the conterminous U.S., with a focus on the eastern humid temperate domain. Our findings suggest that, in an analogous scenario, if a uniform contemporary climate existed everywhere, spring vegetation greenup would occur earlier in the north than in the south. This is in accordance with known species-level clinal variations—for many temperate plant species, populations adapted to colder climates require less thermal forcing to initiate growth than those in warmer climates. This study, for the first time, shows that such geographic adaption relationships are supported at the ecosystem level. Mapping large-scale vegetation climate adaptation patterns contributes to our ability to better track geographically varied phenological responses to climate change.

  9. The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, John E; Aspinwall, Michael J; Pfautsch, Sebastian; Rymer, Paul D; Reich, Peter B; Smith, Renee A; Crous, Kristine Y; Tissue, David T; Ghannoum, Oula; Tjoelker, Mark G

    2015-01-01

    As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate-shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5-38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate-controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool-origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20-60%. Warm-origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool-origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm-origin taxa may be negatively affected.

  10. Root phenology in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radville, Laura; McCormack, M Luke; Post, Eric; Eissenstat, David M

    2016-06-01

    Plant phenology is one of the strongest indicators of ecological responses to climate change, and altered phenology can have pronounced effects on net primary production, species composition in local communities, greenhouse gas fluxes, and ecosystem processes. Although many studies have shown that aboveground plant phenology advances with warmer temperatures, demonstration of a comparable association for belowground phenology has been lacking because the factors that influence root phenology are poorly understood. Because roots can constitute a large fraction of plant biomass, and root phenology may not respond to warming in the same way as shoots, this represents an important knowledge gap in our understanding of how climate change will influence phenology and plant performance. We review studies of root phenology and provide suggestions to direct future research. Only 29% of examined studies approached root phenology quantitatively, strongly limiting interpretation of results across studies. Therefore, we suggest that researchers emphasize quantitative analyses in future phenological studies. We suggest that root initiation, peak growth, and root cessation may be under different controls. Root initiation and cessation may be more constrained by soil temperature and the timing of carbon availability, whereas the timing of peak root growth may represent trade-offs among competing plant sinks. Roots probably do not experience winter dormancy in the same way as shoots: 89% of the studies that examined winter phenology found evidence of growth during winter months. More research is needed to observe root phenology, and future studies should be careful to capture winter and early season phenology. This should be done quantitatively, with direct observations of root growth utilizing rhizotrons or minirhizotrons.

  11. Climate change in the Netherlands : Challenges for a safe and attractive urban environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Döpp, S.P.; Bosch, P.R.; Deelen, C.L. van

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in cities has so far been underexposed in Dutch research on climate change adaptation. High population density and high economic values make Dutch urban areas nevertheless vulnerable to climate change. Even with stringent mitigation policies Dutch cities will be subject to warmer summ

  12. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gregory; Schwartz, H. Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

    2016-01-01

    Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and—contrary to previous findings—slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale. PMID:27223607

  13. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory Park

    Full Text Available Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

  14. Women are Warmer but No Less Assertive than Men: Gender and Language on Facebook.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gregory; Yaden, David Bryce; Schwartz, H Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Kosinski, Michael; Stillwell, David; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

    2016-01-01

    Using a large social media dataset and open-vocabulary methods from computational linguistics, we explored differences in language use across gender, affiliation, and assertiveness. In Study 1, we analyzed topics (groups of semantically similar words) across 10 million messages from over 52,000 Facebook users. Most language differed little across gender. However, topics most associated with self-identified female participants included friends, family, and social life, whereas topics most associated with self-identified male participants included swearing, anger, discussion of objects instead of people, and the use of argumentative language. In Study 2, we plotted male- and female-linked language topics along two interpersonal dimensions prevalent in gender research: affiliation and assertiveness. In a sample of over 15,000 Facebook users, we found substantial gender differences in the use of affiliative language and slight differences in assertive language. Language used more by self-identified females was interpersonally warmer, more compassionate, polite, and-contrary to previous findings-slightly more assertive in their language use, whereas language used more by self-identified males was colder, more hostile, and impersonal. Computational linguistic analysis combined with methods to automatically label topics offer means for testing psychological theories unobtrusively at large scale.

  15. Impacts of Climate Changes on the Future Groundwater Storage in the High Plains Aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, M. H.; Wu, W. Y.; Wada, Y.; Reager, J. T., II; Famiglietti, J. S.; Yeh, P. J. F.; Ducharne, A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater contributes approximately 40% of global freshwater use, and it is critical for water supply and associated food production in arid or semi-arid areas during dry seasons. The increasing demand for water and finite water sources have led to long-term groundwater depletion, creating an obstacle to sustainability in several regions of the world under the pressures of population growth and climate change. The High Plains Aquifer System has an area of 450,000 km2, and is the most pumped aquifer and one of the most important agricultural areas in the United States. In this study, we use coupled climate-hydrological model simulations from the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project to investigate the groundwater storage changes in the High Plains Aquifer under future climate changes and also to explore how such groundwater storage changes might in turn affect the climate through land-atmosphere coupling. Preliminary results indicate that not only the amount of groundwater recharge declines, but the seasonal variations of groundwater recharge also become smaller, resulting in widespread water table decline in a future warmer climate. We will explore how such variations associate to projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration, and feedback to the climate.

  16. A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

  17. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

    2016-01-01

    Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge. PMID:27610227

  18. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin D. Lafferty

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  19. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

    2016-01-01

    Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

  20. [Energy policy rather than climate policy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroonenberg, Salomon B

    2009-01-01

    Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

  1. Fire-induced erosion and millennial-scale climate change in northern ponderosa pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Jennifer L; Meyer, Grant A; Jull, A J Timothy

    2004-11-04

    Western US ponderosa pine forests have recently suffered extensive stand-replacing fires followed by hillslope erosion and sedimentation. These fires are usually attributed to increased stand density as a result of fire suppression, grazing and other land use, and are often considered uncharacteristic or unprecedented. Tree-ring records from the past 500 years indicate that before Euro-American settlement, frequent, low-severity fires maintained open stands. However, the pre-settlement period between about ad 1500 and ad 1900 was also generally colder than present, raising the possibility that rapid twentieth-century warming promoted recent catastrophic fires. Here we date fire-related sediment deposits in alluvial fans in central Idaho to reconstruct Holocene fire history in xeric ponderosa pine forests and examine links to climate. We find that colder periods experienced frequent low-severity fires, probably fuelled by increased understory growth. Warmer periods experienced severe droughts, stand-replacing fires and large debris-flow events that comprise a large component of long-term erosion and coincide with similar events in sub-alpine forests of Yellowstone National Park. Our results suggest that given the powerful influence of climate, restoration of processes typical of pre-settlement times may be difficult in a warmer future that promotes severe fires.

  2. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Iglesias, Ana; Feyen, Luc; Szabó, László; Van Regemorter, Denise; Amelung, Bas; Nicholls, Robert; Watkiss, Paul; Christensen, Ole B; Dankers, Rutger; Garrote, Luis; Goodess, Clare M; Hunt, Alistair; Moreno, Alvaro; Richards, Julie; Soria, Antonio

    2011-02-15

    Quantitative estimates of the economic damages of climate change usually are based on aggregate relationships linking average temperature change to loss in gross domestic product (GDP). However, there is a clear need for further detail in the regional and sectoral dimensions of impact assessments to design and prioritize adaptation strategies. New developments in regional climate modeling and physical-impact modeling in Europe allow a better exploration of those dimensions. This article quantifies the potential consequences of climate change in Europe in four market impact categories (agriculture, river floods, coastal areas, and tourism) and one nonmarket impact (human health). The methodology integrates a set of coherent, high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modeling framework. We find that if the climate of the 2080s were to occur today, the annual loss in household welfare in the European Union (EU) resulting from the four market impacts would range between 0.2-1%. If the welfare loss is assumed to be constant over time, climate change may halve the EU's annual welfare growth. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and a higher rise in sea level result in more severe economic damage. However, the results show that there are large variations across European regions. Southern Europe, the British Isles, and Central Europe North appear most sensitive to climate change. Northern Europe, on the other hand, is the only region with net economic benefits, driven mainly by the positive effects on agriculture. Coastal systems, agriculture, and river flooding are the most important of the four market impacts assessed.

  3. Antimicrobial Effect of 15 Medicinal Plant Species and their Dependency on Climatic Conditions of Growth in Different Geographical and Ecological Areas of Fars Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbas Abdollahi

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The effects of medicinal plants are variable in different conditions. Here, the antimicrobial effect of 15 medicinal plant species and their dependency on the climatic condition of growth in different geographical and ecological areas of Fars Province were studied. Materials and Methods: In This empirical study, the antimicrobial effect of hydro-alcoholic extract of 15 medicinal plant species was examined against standard bacterial strains comparing to conventional therapeutic antibiotics using disk diffusion assay and serial broth dilution. Results: All Extracts were effective against S.aureus ATCC 25923 growth; also Peganum harmala, Myrtus communis, Mentha pulegium, Mentha spp, and Zataria multiflora extracts were observed to have antimicrobial activity against E.coli ATCC 25922. This antimicrobial activity had partially similar results, comparing to conventional antibioticsConclusion: Medicinal plants produce various amounts of antimicrobial substances under the climatic and ecological conditions of each zone, which must be considered in manufacturing herbal medicines.

  4. The Effect of Insulating Blood Warmer Output Tubing on the Temperature of Packed Red Blood Cells at Low Flow Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-01-01

    as the most effective method to minimize the detrimental effects of hypothermia (Boyan & Howland, 1962; Aldrete , 1985; Fried, Satiani, & Zeeb, 1986...rates result in an increased heat loss in both non-insulated and insulated blood warmer output tubing. 62 References 63 References Aldrete , J. A. (1985

  5. Implications of climate change for water surplus and scarcity and how that affects agricultural sustainability in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected impacts of climate change have included, in addition to warmer temperatures, regionally variable effects on precipitation amounts, intensities, and seasonal distribution. Projections downscaled to Hungary and surrounding region were identified and their effects on streamflow, other water r...

  6. Orographic cirrus in the future climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Joos

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available A cloud resolving model (CRM is used to investigate the formation of orographic cirrus clouds in the current and future climate. The formation of cirrus clouds depends on a variety of dynamical and thermodynamical processes, which act on different scales. First, the capability of the CRM in realistically simulating orographic cirrus clouds has been tested by comparing the simulated results to aircraft measurements of an orographic cirrus cloud. The influence of a warmer climate on the microphysical and optical properties of cirrus clouds has been investigated by initializing the CRM with vertical profiles of horizontal wind, temperature and moisture from IPCC A1B simulations for the current climate and for the period 2090–2099 for two regions representative for North and South America. In a future climate, the increase in moisture dampens the vertical propagation of gravity waves and the occurring vertical velocities. Together with higher temperatures fewer ice crystals nucleate homogeneously. Assuming that the relative humidity does not change in a warmer climate the specific humidity in the model is increased. This increase in specific humidity in a warmer climate results in a higher ice water content. The net effect of a reduced ice crystal number concentration and a higher ice water content is an increased optical depth.

  7. Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belay Simane

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia’s low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia’s population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay Highlands—a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke

  8. Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simane, Belay; Zaitchik, Benjamin F; Mesfin, Desalegn

    2012-02-01

    Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia's low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia's population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands--a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke Mountain study, describes

  9. Effect of crown class and habitat type on climate-growth relationships of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnar C. Carnwath; David W. Peterson; Cara R. Nelson

    2012-01-01

    There is increasing interest in actively managing forests to increase their resilience to climate-related changes. Although forest managers rely heavily on the use of silvicultural treatments that manipulate stand structure and stand dynamics to modify responses to climate change, few studies have directly assessed the effects of stand structure or canopy position on...

  10. Climate-growth relationships for yellow-poplar across structural and site quality gradients in the southern Appalachian Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tara L. Keyser; Peter M. Brown

    2014-01-01

    Forecasted changes in climate across the southeastern US include an increase in temperature along with more variable precipitation patterns, including an increase in the severity and frequency of drought events. As such, the management of forests for increased resistance or resilience to the direct and indirect effects of climate change, including decreased tree- and...

  11. Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Bryan A; Dunham, Jason B; Blundon, Brett W; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J

    2015-02-01

    Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J.

    2015-01-01

    Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1mussel) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1discharge; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1mussel and PC1discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.

  13. The present-day climate of Greenland : a study with a regional climate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, J.

    2010-01-01

    Present-day climate of Greenland Over the past 20 years, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has warmed. This temperature increase can be explained by an increase in downwelling longwave radiation due to a warmer overlying atmosphere. These temperature changes are strongly correlated to changes in the la

  14. [Allergic disease--pollen allergy and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Janne; Plaschke, Peter; Poulsen, Lars K

    2009-10-26

    Pollen allergy currently affects a fifth of the population. A warmer climate will lead to a longer pollen season and more days with high pollen counts. In addition, a warmer climate increases the risk of proliferation of new plants with well-known allergenic pollens like ragweed, plane tree and wall pellitory, which have not previously caused allergy in Denmark. The consequences will be more people with hay fever and pollen asthma, longer allergy seasons and an increase in the severity of symptoms, disease-related costs and demands on health care for diagnosis and treatment of more complex allergies.

  15. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chust, Guillem; Allen, J Icarus; Bopp, Laurent; Schrum, Corinna; Holt, Jason; Tsiaras, Kostas; Zavatarelli, Marco; Chifflet, Marina; Cannaby, Heather; Dadou, Isabelle; Daewel, Ute; Wakelin, Sarah L; Machu, Eric; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Butenschon, Momme; Artioli, Yuri; Petihakis, George; Smith, Chris; Garçon, Veronique; Goubanova, Katerina; Le Vu, Briac; Fach, Bettina A; Salihoglu, Baris; Clementi, Emanuela; Irigoien, Xabier

    2014-07-01

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  16. Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2014-05-07

    Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and

  17. Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than

  18. Spatial Variation of the Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Water Resources in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lownsbery, K.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Water resource systems around the world are increasingly stressed from climate change and human development, which often results in conflict and highlights the need for appropriate management strategies. One example is the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint basin in the southeastern US, where decades of legal battles have attempted to apportion the water between metropolitan Atlanta, GA and other stakeholders. This study examines the relative impact of the most significant regional stressors - climate change and population growth, on stakeholder relevant metrics at appropriate time (the next 50 years) and spatial (basin and sub-basin) scales. The system is analyzed within a framework that imposes transient changes and encompasses the range of system response to projected changes. Significant findings are that population growth is the most significant stressor in the upper basin which encompasses the metropolitan Atlanta region. However, climate change, specifically precipitation decrease, is the most significant stressor for the center and Gulf of Mexico portions of the basin. Temperature has little impact because changes in agricultural water use are not considered. Additionally, the metric elasticity to stressor changes is nonlinear.

  19. Assessment of Groundwater Resources in the Context of Climate Change and Population Growth: Case of the Klela Basin in Southern Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adama Toure

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater in the Klela basin in Mali, a subbasin of the Bani basin (one of the main tributaries of the Niger River, is required for domestic use, irrigation and livestock. Furthermore, water supply of the city of Sikasso directly depends on the groundwater resources, which are under pressure caused by increased water demand as well as climate variability and climate change. As a consequence, freshwater availability is being threatened which can have a direct negative impact on irrigation agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate future behavior of groundwater resources in the context of climate change and population growth using socio-economic and population growth scenarios for water demand and the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 data for calculating groundwater recharge using the Thornthwaite model. The WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system model was applied to balance water availability and demand and to compute changes in groundwater storage up to 2050. The overall results show that groundwater recharge as well as storage is decreasing over time, especially in the 2030s which can lead to severe agricultural droughts in this period. Recharge declined by approximatively 49% and stored groundwater by 24% over the study period.

  20. RESPONSE OF NIGERIAN CASSAVA EXPANSION INITIATIVES TO CLIMATE CHANGES, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SOME POLICY INSTRUMENT (1970-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Onwumere Joseph

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study considered the limiting response of Nigeria cassava expansion initiative to climate changes, economic growth and some policy instruments. The presidential initiative to make cassava a foreign exchange earner as well as ensuring that national demand are satisfied has made cassava a significant economic crop and resource input of industrial and international status. Currently, its derivatives such as animal feed, starch, ethanol, cassava chip, cassava flour, cassava liquor etc are in high demand. Having gained international recognition some factors need be examined to ascertain the limiting response of this economic crop some exogenous factors. The specific objectives of interest were to ascertain the response of cassava output expansion to rainfall, temperature, imports, exports, credit allocation to agribusiness, exchange rate, nominal interest rate, inflation and GDP from 1970 – 2012. Also, it examined the short and long run effects of these variables to cassava output so as to know how much adjustment it makes to reach the equilibrium. Secondary data were used for this research work. The technique of data analysis was auto- regressive modeling regression. To capture the long run and short run dynamics of cassava output behavior, the error correction model (ECM using the Engle-Granger methodology was adopted. The result revealed a very high rate of adjustment to long run equilibrium and the variables are correlated which means that impact of each variable on cassava output behavior in the economy is inseparable. The Error correction coefficient of -0.975 measures the speed of adjustment towards long run equilibrium earned the expected negative sign and is statistically significant at 1% risk level. Thus, this study recommends that the emerging cassava economy of Nigeria would be adequately empowered for efficient productivity if the Government stipulate policies that will encourage domestic output expansion to meet the national and

  1. Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

    2015-12-01

    Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

  2. Population trends in northern spotted owls: Associations with climate in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    We used reverse time capture-mark-recapture models to describe associations between rate of population change (??) and climate for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) at six long-term study areas in Washington and Oregon, USA. Populations in three of six areas showed strong evidence of declining populations, while populations in two additional areas were likely declining as well. At four areas, ?? was positively associated with wetter-than-normal conditions during the growing season, which likely affects prey availability. Lambda was also negatively associated with cold, wet winters and nesting seasons, and the number of hot summer days. The amount of annual variation in ?? accounted for by climate varied across study areas (3-85%). Rate of population change was more sensitive to adult survival than to recruitment; however, there was considerable variation among years and across study areas for all demographic rates. While annual survival was more closely related to regional climate conditions, recruitment was often associated with local weather. In addition to climate, declines in recruitment at four of six areas were associated with increased presence of barred owls. Climate change models predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest in the first half of the 21st century. Our results indicate that these conditions have the potential to negatively affect annual survival, recruitment, and consequently population growth rates for northern spotted owls. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  3. The Response of Tree-Ring Growth to Climate at Upper Timberline of Southern Aspect of Mt. Taibai

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, the impact of climate change on vegetation in Qinling mountainous area has already been authenticated by numerous investigations, nevertheless, as the major ridge of Qinling Mountains as well as national natural conservation reserve, the ecology response of Mt. Taibai sub-alpine vegetation to climate change has not yet gained enough public attention.In this study, in accordance with the method of dendrochronology, response analysis was carried out to contrast characteristic p...

  4. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate: Outstanding Research Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan

    2016-04-01

    Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. Based on observations after major eruptions of the past and experiments with numerical models of the climate system, we understand much about their climatic impact, but there are also a number of unanswered questions. Volcanic eruptions produce global cooling, and are an important natural cause of interannual, interdecadal, and even centennial-scale climate change. One of the most interesting volcanic effects is the "winter warming" of Northern Hemisphere continents following major tropical eruptions. During the winter in the Northern Hemisphere following every large tropical eruption of the past century, surface air temperatures over North America, Europe, and East Asia were warmer than normal, while they were colder over Greenland and the Middle East. This pattern and the coincident atmospheric circulation correspond to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. While this response is observed after recent major eruptions, most state-of-the-art climate models have trouble simulating winter warming. Why? High latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, while also producing global cooling, do not have the same impact on atmospheric dynamics. Both tropical and high latitude eruptions can weaken the Indian and African summer monsoon, and the effects can be seen in past records of flow in the Nile and Niger Rivers. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade have had a small effect on global temperature trends. Some important outstanding research questions include: How much seasonal, annual, and decadal predictability is possible following a large volcanic eruption? Do

  5. Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kravtsov, Sergey; Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Roebber, Paul

    2016-04-01

    We simulate the seasonal cycle of the Great Lakes' water temperature and lake ice using an idealized coupled lake-atmosphere-ice model. Under identical seasonally varying boundary conditions, this model exhibits more than one seasonally varying equilibrium solutions, which we associate with distinct regional climate regimes. Colder/warmer regimes are characterized by abundant/scarce amounts of wintertime ice and cooler/warmer summer temperatures, respectively. These regimes are also evident in the observations of the Great Lakes' climate variability over recent few decades, and are found to be most pronounced for Lake Superior, the deepest of the Great Lakes, consistent with model predictions. Multiple climate regimes of the Great Lakes also play a crucial role in the accelerated warming of the lakes relative to the surrounding land regions in response to larger-scale global warming. We discuss the physical origin and characteristics of multiple climate regimes over the lakes, as well as their implications for a longer-term regional climate variability.

  6. Warmer springs, laying date and clutch size of tree sparrows Passer montanus in Croatia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Z. DOLENEC; P. DOLENEC; A.P. MΦLER

    2011-01-01

    Global surface air temperatures increased during the past 100 years. Many long-term studies of birds have reported a climatic influence on breeding performance. We analysed long-term changes in first laying date and clutch size for first clutches of sedentary, hole-nesting and socially monogamous tree sparrows Passer montanus during 1980-2009 in northwestern Croatia. Laying date advanced and spring temperature increased significantly during the study. Date of laying was significantly correlated with mean air spring temperature and advanced by 8.6 days during the 30 years period. Laying date was delayed in extremely cold, but not in extremely warm springs compared to years with normal temperatures. These results suggest that current climate change including extreme change does not have negative effects on timing of laying or clutch size. In contrast to laying date, clutch size did not vary systematically during the study period or with mean spring air temperature changes.

  7. Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, Marylynn

    2015-01-01

    Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.

  8. Ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in northern Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Louis Iverson; Linda Parker; David Mladenoff; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Matt St. Pierre; Anantha Prasad; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Dale Higgins; Avery. Dorland

    2011-01-01

    The forests of northern Wisconsin will likely experience dramatic changes over the next 100 years as a result of climate change. This assessment evaluates key forest ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change across northern Wisconsin under a range of future climate scenarios. Warmer temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns are expected to influence ecosystem...

  9. Impacts of Climate Change at Watershed Scale: Creating an Ecological Basis for "Smart Growth" and Economic Development in the Post-industrial Lehigh Valley of Eastern PA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, B.; Felzer, B.; Pazzaglia, F.; Sahagian, D.

    2009-05-01

    As modeling of global climate change matures and regional projections regarding regional variability become viable, the scales of climate impact analysis and regional decision-making begin to converge. This convergence provides a critical new challenge for both the climate modeling and policy communities- "How can projected climate change insights at watershed scale most effectively inform decisions regarding land use, zoning, and growth management?" This issue is particularly critical in regions that were formerly heavily industrialized and developed, and that are now finding new avenues for economic growth in the wake of massive clear-cutting, mining, and heavy industry of the 19th and 20th centuries. The Lehigh Valley is a watershed defining a single ecosystem that contains 800,000 people, 321 square miles of croplands and 95 square miles of urban areas, with the remainder of the watershed at various successional stages after massive forest clear-cutting of the last two centuries. Many of the industries that fueled the industrial revolution were based in the Lehigh Valley, and their development came at an environmental cost that was not then recognized, but that left a legacy of mine-scarred lands, acid mine drained streams, soil and water contamination, and a derelict industrial infrastructure that state and local governments have only recently begun to address. Before these institutions can plan for redevelopment of brownfields, regional planning for housing and commercial development, and preservation of forested and agricultural lands, it is first necessary to understand the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology, productivity, and other ecosystems functions, and to provide this information to decision-makers responsible for environmentally sustainable development and regional planning. "Smart Growth" has become a catch phrase for regional development that is sensitive to social, economic, political, and historical goals, as well as ecological

  10. Climatic Triggers of Extremes in Daily Beech, Oak and Pine Stem Diameter Growth and Shrinkage in Northeastern Germany: An Event Coincidence Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegmund, Jonatan; Sanders, Tanja; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerd; Donner, Reik

    2016-04-01

    Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem diameter growth and shrinkage, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem diameter variations of three domestic tree species (beech, oak and pine) from 2012-2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme daily stem variations, using a 60-days sliding window analysis covering the full growth period of each year. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we test 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on tree growth and shrinkage, postulating conditional event coincidence analysis as a new extension of the original methodology. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to extremes in several meteorological variables. Yet, the intra-species differences are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only.We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions.

  11. Age-dependent climate-growth relationships and regeneration of Picea abies in a drought-prone mixed coniferous forest in the Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Roman; Oberhuber, Walter

    2013-05-01

    Within dry inner Alpine environments climate warming is expected to affect the development of forest ecosystems by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. By applying dendroecological techniques we evaluated climate sensitivity of radial growth and establishment of Picea abies in a drought-prone mixed-coniferous forest in the Austrian Alps. Time series of annual increments were developed from > 220 trees and assigned to four age classes. While radial growth of old P. abies trees (mean age 121 and 174 yr) responded highly significant to May-June precipitation, young trees (mean age 28 and 53 yr) were insensitive to precipitation in the current year. Because tree age was closely correlated to height and diameter (r(2) = 0.709 and 0.784, respectively), we relate our findings to the increase in tree size rather than age per se. Synchronicity found among trend in basal area increment and tree establishment suggests that canopy openings increased light and water availability, which favoured growth and establishment of moderately shade-tolerant P. abies. We conclude that although P. abies is able to regenerate at this drought prone site, increasing inter-tree competition for water in dense stands gradually lowers competitive strength and restricts scattered occurrence to dry-mesic sites.

  12. Growth and physiological responses of larch trees to climate changes deduced from tree-ring widths and δ13C at two forest sites in eastern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tei, Shunsuke; Sugimoto, Atsuko; Yonenobu, Hitoshi; Ohta, Takeshi; Maximov, Trofim C.

    2014-06-01

    Tree-ring chronologies of ring width and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) over the past 160 years were developed using living larch trees at two forest sites, each with different annual precipitation, in eastern Siberia: Spasskaya Pad (SP) (62°14‧N, 129°37‧E); and Elgeeii (EG) (60°0‧N, 133°49‧E). Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) was derived from tree-ring δ13C. The physiological responses of the larch trees to climate varied between these sites and over time. Ring widths correlated negatively with summer temperatures at SP, where summer precipitation is lower than at EG, probably due to temperature-induced water stress. Since the 1990s, however, the negative effect of warming has been more severe at EG, where the productivity of larch trees is higher than at SP. A greater reduction of larch tree growth and higher increase rate of iWUE at EG reflects greater temperature-induced water stress, which is incident to the larger forest biomass. Our results suggest that effect of increase in atmospheric CO2 on larch tree growth is not sufficient to compensate for temperature-induced water stress on larch growth in eastern Siberia and differences in precipitation and forest productivity largely affect the larch tree response to changing climate in eastern Siberia.

  13. Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas C R Silva

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2 and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

  14. Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

    2010-07-21

    The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

  15. Green Growth - an Illusion? Energy and Climate Risk: Rethinking our Developmental Models; La croissance verte, une illusion? Energie et risque climatique: repenser nos modeles de developpement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessus, B. [Association Global Chance, 92 - Meudon (France)

    2011-04-15

    The years go by and international conferences come and go, with their quota of cries of alarm and calls to action to counter climate change. But in reality few large-scale programmes have been launched anywhere in the world involving concrete action to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. As one who has campaigned for many years for policies of energy consumption control, Benjamin Dessus shows here that the energy challenge is as great as it has ever been in a world of expanding populations in which most peoples aspire to reach the developmental level of the northern countries, despite the fact that our climate probably cannot support such a state of affairs. He argues here against a certain number of common suppositions, such as the idea of focussing exclusively on CO{sub 2} in the fight against global warming, the need for a continuous economic growth on the order of 2% per annum or excessive faith in market mechanisms to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. He also stresses the ambiguities of so-called 'green' growth and compares different energy conservation scenarios. In this way, he shows that, against a relatively dominant line of reasoning based largely on (at times near-utopian) technological solutions and the continuation of sustained economic growth, there are more effective paths based on individual/collective energy sobriety and a serious slowdown of economic growth in the most developed countries, if not indeed a total halt to that growth (though these are more ambitious in that they require a revolution in the behaviour of the most affluent peoples). He concludes by proposing some courses of action for implementing such a programme in a country like France, showing the extent to which modern modes of life are going to have to change and how urgent it now is to debate these matters, if such change is to be achieved without - excessive - pain. (author)

  16. Adaptability to climate change in forestry species: drought effects on growth and wood anatomy of ponderosa pines growing at different competition levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, M. E.; Gyenge, J. E.; Urquiza, M. M.; Varela, S.

    2012-11-01

    More stressful conditions are expected due to climatic change in several regions, including Patagonia, South-America. In this region, there are no studies about the impact of severe drought events on growth and wood characteristics of the most planted forestry species, Pinus ponderosa (Doug. ex-Laws). The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of a severe drought event on annual stem growth and functional wood anatomy of pines growing at different plantation densities aiming to understand how management practices can help to increase their adaptability to climate change. Growth magnitude and period, specific hydraulic conductivity, and anatomical traits (early- and late wood proportion, lumen diameter, cell-wall thickness, tracheid length and bordered pit dimensions) were measured in the ring 2008-2009, which was formed during drought conditions. This drought event decreased annual stem growth by 30-38% and 58-65% respect to previous mean growth, in open vs. closed stand trees, respectively, indicating a higher sensitivity of the latter, which is opposite to reports from the same species growing in managed native forests in USA. Some wood anatomical variables did differ in more water stressed trees (lower cell wall thickness of early wood cells and higher proportion of small-lumen cells in late wood), which in turn did not affect wood function (hydraulic conductivity and resistance to implosion). Other anatomical variables (tracheid length, pit dimensions, early- and late wood proportion, lumen diameter of early wood cells) did not differ between tree sizes and plantation density. The results suggest that severe drought affects differentially the amount but not the function and quality of formed wood in ponderosa pine growing at different competition levels. (Author) 41 refs.

  17. The last interglacial climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Langen, Peter L.; Vinther, Bo M.

    2016-01-01

    The last interglacial climate was influenced by substantial changes in the annual insolation cycle that led to a warmer climate state with pronounced high northern latitude warming. We analyze the impact of the insolation changes 125,000 years before present using an equilibrium snapshot simulation...... sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions and pre-industrial insolation, and vice versa. The coupled simulation yields an annual mean global warming of approximately 0.5 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. While the warming over the continents follows the annual cycle of the insolation...... the response at high northern latitudes, including the North Atlantic region and Europe, while the direct insolation impact is more dominant in the tropics....

  18. Evaluating within-population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal-limited species to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, David J; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Campbell Grant, Evan H; Miller, David A W

    2016-12-01

    Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.

  19. Growth responses to climate in a multi-species tree-ring network in the Western Carpathian Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Frank, David C; Kaczka, Ryszard J; Verstege, Anne; Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz; Esper, Jan

    2007-05-01

    We analyzed growth responses to climate of 24 tree-ring width and four maximum latewood density chronologies from the greater Tatra region in Poland and Slovakia. This network comprises 1183 ring-width and 153 density measurement series from four conifer species (Picea abies (L.) Karst., Larix decidua Mill., Abies alba (L.) Karst., and Pinus mugo (L.)) between 800 and 1550 m a.s.l. Individual spline detrending was used to retain annual to multi-decadal scale climate information in the data. Twentieth century temperature and precipitation data from 16 grid-boxes covering the 48-50 degrees N and 19-21 degrees E region were used for comparison. The network was analyzed to assess growth responses to climate as a function of species, elevation, parameter, frequency and site ecology. Twenty ring-width chronologies significantly correlated (PPinus mugo ring-width chronology and explained 42% of the network's variance. The mean of these 12 high-elevation chronologies was significantly correlated at 0.62 with June-July temperatures, whereas the mean of three latewood density chronologies, which loaded most strongly on the fourth principal component, significantly correlated at 0.69 with April-September temperatures (P<0.001 over the 1901-2002 period in both cases). These groupings allow for a robust estimation of June-July (1661-2004) and April-September (1709-2004) temperatures, respectively. Comparison with reconstructions from the Alps and Central Europe supports the general rule of the dominant influence of growing season temperature on high-elevation forest growth.

  20. Living with climate change: avoiding conflict through adaptation in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørstad, H.; Webersik, C.

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change and avoid conflict over the loss of resources. The empirical part of the paper answers the question to what extent local communities in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. Further, it assesses one of Malawi's adaptation projects designed to build resilience to a warmer and more variable climate, and points to some of its limitations. This research shows that not all adaptation strategies are suited to cope with a warmer and more variable climate.

  1. [Tree-ring growth responses of Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) to climate change in southern northeast: a case study in Qianshan Mountains].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Li; Xing-Yuan, He; Zhen-Ju, Chen

    2014-07-01

    Mongolian oak is one of the most important broad-leaved tree species in forests, Northeast China. Based on the methodology of dendrochronology, the variations of tree ring radial growth of Mongolian oak in Qianshan Mountains, south of Northeast China, were analyzed. Combined with the temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations since 1951, the relationships between standardized tree ring width chronology and main climatic factors were analyzed. In this region, the precipitation between April and July of the current year had an significant relationship with the tree ring width of Mongolian oak, and was the main factor limiting the radial growth. The extreme maximum temperature of May was also a key factor influencing the tree ring width, which had a significant on the tree ring width of Mongolian oak. The precipitation in April had a significant and stable relationship with the growth of Mongolian oak since the 1950s. The 'divergence problem' was found in the study area, which the sensitivity of tree growth to summer temperature reduced since the 1980s. The tree growth response to temperature showed a seasonal change from summer to spring.