Sample records for warm winter temperature
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Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes
2018-01-18
Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C
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Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species
Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.
2018-02-01
We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.
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Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.
Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D
2018-02-01
We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.
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Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?
Ma, Ying
2017-04-01
Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.
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Impact of warm winters on microbial growth
Birgander, Johanna; Rousk, Johannes; Axel Olsson, Pål
2014-05-01
Growth of soil bacteria has an asymmetrical response to higher temperature with a gradual increase with increasing temperatures until an optimum after which a steep decline occurs. In laboratory studies it has been shown that by exposing a soil bacterial community to a temperature above the community's optimum temperature for two months, the bacterial community grows warm-adapted, and the optimum temperature of bacterial growth shifts towards higher temperatures. This result suggests a change in the intrinsic temperature dependence of bacterial growth, as temperature influenced the bacterial growth even though all other factors were kept constant. An intrinsic temperature dependence could be explained by either a change in the bacterial community composition, exchanging less tolerant bacteria towards more tolerant ones, or it could be due to adaptation within the bacteria present. No matter what the shift in temperature tolerance is due to, the shift could have ecosystem scale implications, as winters in northern Europe are getting warmer. To address the question of how microbes and plants are affected by warmer winters, a winter-warming experiment was established in a South Swedish grassland. Results suggest a positive response in microbial growth rate in plots where winter soil temperatures were around 6 °C above ambient. Both bacterial and fungal growth (leucine incorporation, and acetate into ergosterol incorporation, respectively) appeared stimulated, and there are two candidate explanations for these results. Either (i) warming directly influence microbial communities by modulating their temperature adaptation, or (ii) warming indirectly affected the microbial communities via temperature induced changes in bacterial growth conditions. The first explanation is in accordance with what has been shown in laboratory conditions (explained above), where the differences in the intrinsic temperature relationships were examined. To test this explanation the
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Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.
2017-01-01
The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...
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Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions
Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping
1992-01-01
An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.
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Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?
Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert
2015-06-01
Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.
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Terra Data Confirm Warm, Dry U.S. Winter
2002-01-01
New maps of land surface temperature and snow cover produced by NASA's Terra satellite show this year's winter was warmer than last year's, and the snow line stayed farther north than normal. The observations confirm earlier National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the United States was unusually warm and dry this past winter. (Click to read the NASA press release and to access higher-resolution images.) For the last two years, a new sensor aboard Terra has been collecting the most detailed global measurements ever made of our world's land surface temperatures and snow cover. The Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is already giving scientists new insights into our changing planet. Average temperatures during December 2001 through February 2002 for the contiguous United States appear to have been unseasonably warm from the Rockies eastward. In the top image the coldest temperatures appear black, while dark green, blue, red, yellow, and white indicate progressively warmer temperatures. MODIS observes both land surface temperature and emissivity, which indicates how efficiently a surface absorbs and emits thermal radiation. Compared to the winter of 2000-01, temperatures throughout much of the U.S. were warmer in 2001-02. The bottom image depicts the differences on a scale from dark blue (colder this year than last) to red (warmer this year than last). A large region of warm temperatures dominated the northern Great Plains, while the area around the Great Salt Lake was a cold spot. Images courtesy Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC, based upon data courtesy Zhengming Wan, MODIS Land Science Team member at the University of California, Santa Barbara's Institute for Computational Earth System Science
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Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability
Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.
2015-12-01
There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.
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Impacts of extreme winter warming events on plant physiology in a sub-Arctic heath community.
Bokhorst, Stef; Bjerke, Jarle W; Davey, Matthew P; Taulavuori, Kari; Taulavuori, Erja; Laine, Kari; Callaghan, Terry V; Phoenix, Gareth K
2010-10-01
Insulation provided by snow cover and tolerance of freezing by physiological acclimation allows Arctic plants to survive cold winter temperatures. However, both the protection mechanisms may be lost with winter climate change, especially during extreme winter warming events where loss of snow cover from snow melt results in exposure of plants to warm temperatures and then returning extreme cold in the absence of insulating snow. These events cause considerable damage to Arctic plants, but physiological responses behind such damage remain unknown. Here, we report simulations of extreme winter warming events using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables in a sub-Arctic heathland. During these events, we measured maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII), photosynthesis, respiration, bud swelling and associated bud carbohydrate changes and lipid peroxidation to identify physiological responses during and after the winter warming events in three dwarf shrub species: Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea and Vaccinium myrtillus. Winter warming increased maximum quantum yield of PSII, and photosynthesis was initiated for E. hermaphroditum and V. vitis-idaea. Bud swelling, bud carbohydrate decreases and lipid peroxidation were largest for E. hermaphroditum, whereas V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea showed no or less strong responses. Increased physiological activity and bud swelling suggest that sub-Arctic plants can initiate spring-like development in response to a short winter warming event. Lipid peroxidation suggests that plants experience increased winter stress. The observed differences between species in physiological responses are broadly consistent with interspecific differences in damage seen in previous studies, with E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus tending to be most sensitive. This suggests that initiation of spring-like development may be a major driver in the damage caused by winter warming events that are predicted to become more
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Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe
Damm, Andrea; Greuell, Wouter; Landgren, Oskar; Prettenthaler, Franz
2017-01-01
Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons challenge the winter tourism industry. In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe's ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified. Using time series regression models, the relationship between
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Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.
Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A
2018-03-13
Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.
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Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.
Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli
2015-09-15
High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.
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Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz; Hansen, Birger U; Hansen, Marc O; Stecher, Ole; Elberling, Bo
2015-06-01
Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100 years long Betula nana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betula nana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming. To explain the strong winter importance on growth, we assessed the importance of different environmental factors using site-specific measurements from 1991 to 2011 of soil temperatures, sea ice coverage, precipitation and snow depths. The results show a strong positive growth response to the amount of thawing and growing degree-days as well as to winter and spring soil temperatures. In addition to these direct effects, a strong negative growth response to sea ice extent was identified, indicating a possible link between local sea ice conditions, local climate variations and Betula nana growth rates. Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20 years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betula nana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter and spring soil temperatures have increased significantly suggesting that the most recent increase in Betula nana radial growth is primarily triggered by warmer winter and spring air temperatures causing earlier snowmelt that allows the soils to drain and warm quicker. The presented results may help to explain the recently observed 'greening of the Arctic' which may further accelerate in future years due to both direct and indirect effects of winter warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons
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Winter temperature affects the prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sébastien Descamps
Full Text Available The Arctic is rapidly warming and host-parasite relationships may be modified by such environmental changes. Here, I showed that the average winter temperature in Svalbard, Arctic Norway, explained almost 90% of the average prevalence of ticks in an Arctic seabird, the Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia. An increase of 1°C in the average winter temperature at the nesting colony site was associated with a 5% increase in the number of birds infected by these ectoparasites in the subsequent breeding season. Guillemots were generally infested by only a few ticks (≤5 and I found no direct effect of tick presence on their body condition and breeding success. However, the strong effect of average winter temperature described here clearly indicates that tick-seabird relationships in the Arctic may be strongly affected by ongoing climate warming.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hollesen, Jørgen; Buchwal, Agata; Rachlewicz, Grzegorz
2015-01-01
Growing season conditions are widely recognized as the main driver for tundra shrub radial growth, but the effects of winter warming and snow remain an open question. Here, we present a more than 100years long Betulanana ring-width chronology from Disko Island in western Greenland that demonstrates...... a highly significant and positive growth response to both summer and winter air temperatures during the past century. The importance of winter temperatures for Betulanana growth is especially pronounced during the periods from 1910-1930 to 1990-2011 that were dominated by significant winter warming....... Data also reveal a clear shift within the last 20years from a period with thick snow depths (1991-1996) and a positive effect on Betulanana radial growth, to a period (1997-2011) with generally very shallow snow depths and no significant growth response towards snow. During this period, winter...
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Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A
2014-12-01
In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.
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Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming
Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.
2017-12-01
Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.
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Subseasonal Reversal of East Asian Surface Temperature Variability in Winter 2014/15
Xu, Xinping; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Wang, Huijun
2018-06-01
Although there has been a considerable amount of research conducted on the East Asian winter-mean climate, subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability reversals in the early and late winter remain poorly understood. In this study, we focused on the recent winter of 2014/15, in which warmer anomalies dominated in January and February but colder conditions prevailed in December. Moreover, Arctic sea-ice cover (ASIC) in September-October 2014 was lower than normal, and warmer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the Niño4 region in winter, together with a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO|+) phase. Using observational data and CMIP5 historical simulations, we investigated the PDO|+ phase modulation upon the winter warm Niño4 phase (autumn ASIC reduction) influence on the subseasonal SAT variability of East Asian winter. The results show that, under a PDO|+ phase modulation, warm Niño4 SST anomalies are associated with a subseasonal delay of tropical surface heating and subsequent Hadley cell and Ferrel cell intensification in January-February, linking the tropical and midlatitude regions. Consistently, the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significantly decelerated in January-February and hence promotes the warm anomalies over East Asia. Under the PDO|+ phase, the decrease in ASIC is related to cold SST anomalies in the western North Pacific, which increase the meridional temperature gradient and generate an accelerated and westward-shifted EAJS in December. The westward extension of the EAJS is responsible for the eastward-propagating Rossby waves triggered by declining ASIC and thereby favors the connection between ASIC and cold conditions over East Asia.
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Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chun-Quan Ou
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS: This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS: The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52% from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24% from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%. We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037, but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40% and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64% in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION: Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate
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Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Damyanov, Nikolay N; Mysak, Lawrence A; Damon Matthews, H
2012-01-01
Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada. (letter)
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Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming
Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.
2012-03-01
Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pagter, Majken; Andersen, Uffe Brandt; Andersen, Lillie
2015-01-01
Global climate models predict an increase in the mean surface air temperature, with a disproportionate increase during winter. Since temperature is a major driver of phenological events in temperate woody perennials, warming is likely to induce changes in a range of these events. We investigated ...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiuchen Wu
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Rapid climate warming, with much higher warming rates in winter and spring, could affect the vernalization fulfillment, a critical process for induction of crop reproductive growth and consequent grain filling in temperate winter crops. However, regional observational evidence of the effects of historical warming-mediated vernalization variations on temperate winter crop yields is lacking. Here, we statistically quantified the interannual sensitivity of winter wheat yields to vernalization degree days (VDD during 1975–2009 and its spatial relationship with multi-year mean VDD over temperate Europe (TE, using EUROSTAT crop yield statistics, observed and simulated crop phenology data and gridded daily climate data. Our results revealed a pervasively positive interannual sensitivity of winter wheat yields to variations in VDD (γVDD over TE, with a mean γVDD of 2.8 ± 1.5 kg ha−1 VDD−1. We revealed a significant (p < 0.05 negative exponential relationship between γVDD and multi-year mean VDD for winter wheat across TE, with higher γVDD in winter wheat planting areas with lower multi-year mean VDD. Our findings shed light on potential vulnerability of winter wheat yields to warming-mediated vernalization variations over TE, particularly considering a likely future warmer climate.
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Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer
Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara
2017-07-01
Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yunlu Tian
Full Text Available Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05, respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05 higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.
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Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago
2014-02-15
Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, Pocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hu He
2015-03-01
Full Text Available While several field investigations have demonstrated significant effects of cool season (winter or spring warming on phytoplankton development, the role played by large-bodied zooplankton grazers for the responses of phytoplankton to winter warming is ambiguous. We conducted an outdoor experiment to compare the effect of winter warming (heating by 3°C in combination with presence and absence of Daphnia grazing (D. similis on phytoplankton standing crops and community structure under eutrophic conditions. When Daphnia were absent, warming was associated with significant increases in phytoplankton biomass and cyanobacterial dominance. In contrast, when Daphnia were present, warming effects on phytoplankton dynamics were offset by warming-enhanced grazing, resulting in no significant change in biomass or taxonomic dominance. These results emphasize that large-bodied zooplankton like Daphnia spp. may play an important role in modulating the interactions between climate warming and phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient rich lake ecosystems.
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Exceptional Arctic warmth of early winter 2016 and attribution to global warming
van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Macias-Fauria, Marc; King, Andrew; Uhe, Peter; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; Karoly, David; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi
2017-04-01
have risen on the North Pole, modulated by decadal North Atlantic variability. For all phases of this variability, a warm event like the one of this winter would have been extremely unlikely in the climate of a century ago. Both sets of models also give very comparable results and show that the bulk of the arctic temperature increase is due to anthropogenic emissions. This also holds for the warm extremes caused by the type of circulation present in the early winter of 2016.
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Reddy, Gadi V P; Shi, Peijian; Hui, Cang; Cheng, Xiaofei; Ouyang, Fang; Ge, Feng
2015-12-01
Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the "seesaw effect." Using a long-term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid- and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long-term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates
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Shekhar, M. S.; Devi, Usha; Dash, S. K.; Singh, G. P.; Singh, Amreek
2018-04-01
The current trends in diurnal temperature range, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and sun shine hours over different ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter have been studied. Analysis of 25 years of data shows an increasing trend in diurnal temperature range over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter, thereby confirming regional warming of the region due to present climate change and global warming. Statistical studies show significant increasing trend in maximum temperature over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Minimum temperature shows significant decreasing trend over Pir Panjal and Shamshawari range and significant increasing trend over higher altitude of Western Himalaya. Similarly, sunshine hours show significant decreasing trend over Karakoram range. There exists strong positive correlation between diurnal temperature range and maximum temperature for all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Strong negative correlation exists between diurnal temperature range and minimum temperature over Shamshawari and Great Himalaya range and lower altitude of Western Himalaya. Sunshine hours show strong positive correlation with diurnal temperature range over Pir Panjal and Great Himalaya range and lower and higher altitudes.
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Tan, Kaiyan; Zhou, Guangsheng; Lv, Xiaomin; Guo, Jianping; Ren, Sanxue
2018-03-12
We examined the growth and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) in response to the predicted elevated CO 2 concentration and temperature to determine the mechanism of the combined impacts in North China Plain. An elevated treatment (CO 2 : 600 μmol mol -1 , temperature: +2.5~3.0 °C, ECTI) and a control treatment (ambient CO 2 and temperature, CK) were conducted in open-top chambers from October 2013 to June 2016. Post-winter growth stages of winter wheat largely advanced and shifted to a cooler period of nature season under combined impact of elevated CO 2 and temperature during the entire growing season. The mean temperature and accumulated photosynthetic active radiations (PAR) over the post-winter growing period in ECTI decreased by 0.8-1.5 °C and 10-13%, respectively compared with that in CK, negatively impacted winter wheat growth. As a result, winter wheat in ECTI suffered from low temperature hazards during critical period of floret development and anthesis and grain number per ear was reduced by 10-31% in the three years. Although 1000-kernel weight in ECTI increased by 8-9% mainly due to elevated CO 2 , increasing CO 2 concentration from 400 to 600 μmol mol -1 throughout the growth stage was not able to offset the adverse effect of warming on winter wheat growth and yield.
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Cold climate bioventing with soil warming in Alaska
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sayles, G.D.; Brenner, R.C.; Leeson, A.; Hinchee, R.E.; Vogel, C.M.
1995-01-01
In the heart of Alaska, a 3-year field study was conducted of bioventing in conjunction with several soil warming methods. The contamination was JP-4 jet fuel. The soil warming methods evaluated, chosen for their apparent low cost, were (1) application of warm water at a low rate, (2) enhanced solar warming by covering the surface with clear plastic in the summer and covering the surface with insulation in the winter, and (3) buried heat pipe. The warm water and buried heat tape methods performed best, maintaining summer-like 10 to 20 C temperatures in the test plots year round, compared to the temperature of the unheated control plot, which dipped to -1 C in the winter. The solar/insulation warming method showed a modest improvement in temperature over the unheated control test plot. The annual average temperatures of the warm water, heat tape, solar, and control plots were 16.9, 14.5, 6.1, and 3.5 C, respectively. The biodegradation rates, measured by in situ respirometry, were higher in plots with higher temperatures and followed the Arrhenius relationship. Despite the low temperature, significant biodegradation was observed in the unheated plot during the winter
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. H. Manson
2008-11-01
Full Text Available The vortex during winter 2004/2005 was interesting for several reasons. It has been described as "cold" stratospherically, with relatively strong westerly winds. Losses of ozone until the final warming in March were considerable, and comparable to the cold 1999–2000 winter. There were also modest warming events, indicated by peaks in 10 hPa zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes, near 1 January and 1 February. Events associated with a significant regional stratospheric warming in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector then began and peaked toward the end of February, providing strong longitudinal variations in dynamical characteristics (Chshyolkova et al., 2007; hereafter C07. The associated disturbed vortex of 25 February was displaced from the pole and either elongated (upper or split into two cyclonic centres (lower. Observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on Aura are used here to study the thermal characteristics of the stratosphere in the Canadian-US (253° E and Scandinavian-Europe (16° E sectors. Undisturbed high latitude stratopause (55 km zonal mean temperatures during the mid-winter (December–February reached 270 K, warmer than empirical-models such as CIRA-86, suggesting that seasonal polar warming due to dynamical influences affects the high altitude stratosphere as well as the mesosphere. There were also significant stratopause differences between Scandinavia and Canada during the warming events of 1 January and 1 February, with higher temperatures near 275 K at 16° E. During the 25 February "PWC" event a warming occurred at low and middle stratospheric heights (10–30 km: 220 K at 253° E and the stratopause cooled; while over Scandinavia-Europe the stratosphere below ~30 km was relatively cold at 195 K and the stratopause became even warmer (>295 K and lower (~45 km. The zonal winds followed the associated temperature gradients so that the vertical and latitudinal gradients of the winds differed strongly between
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Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.
Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M
2014-01-01
Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.
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The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade
Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.
2015-12-01
The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.
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Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Melanie A Harsch
Full Text Available Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = -5 with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C, dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm. Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.
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Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment
Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.
2014-01-01
Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026
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Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America
Biederman, Joel A.; Scott, Russell L.; John A. Arnone,; Jasoni, Richard L.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Moreo, Michael T.; Papuga, Shirley A.; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P.; Vivoni, Enrique R.
2018-01-01
Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these
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Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures
Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun; Sánchez, René Lobato; Jha, Bhaskar
2018-06-01
In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Niño/La Niña SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Niño/La Niña, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Niño/La Niña SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P
2015-01-01
Soil respiration and CH4 emissions play a significant role in the global carbon balance. However, in situ studies in agricultural soils on responses of soil respiration and CH4 fluxes to climate warming are still sparse, especially from long-term studies with year-round heating. A warming...... by affecting soil NH4 concentration. Across years, CH4 emissions were negatively correlated with soil temperature in N1 treatment. Soil respiration showed clear seasonal fluctuations, with the largest emissions during summer and smallest in winter. Warming and nitrogen fertilization had no significant effects...... on total cumulative soil CO2 fluxes. Soil respiration was positively correlated with microbial biomass C, and microbial biomass C was not affected significantly by warming or nitrogen addition. The lack of significant effects of warming on soil respiration may have resulted from: (1) warming-induced soil...
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Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960
Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.
2018-01-01
This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. H. Manson
2008-11-01
Full Text Available The vortex during winter 2004/2005 was interesting for several reasons. It has been described as "cold" stratospherically, with relatively strong westerly winds. Losses of ozone until the final warming in March were considerable, and comparable to the cold 1999–2000 winter. There were also modest warming events, indicated by peaks in 10 hPa zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes, near 1 January and 1 February. Events associated with a significant regional stratospheric warming in the Pacific-Western Canada (PWC sector then began and peaked toward the end of February, providing strong longitudinal variations in dynamical characteristics (Chshyolkova et al., 2007; hereafter C07. The associated disturbed vortex of 25 February was displaced from the pole and either elongated (upper or split into two cyclonic centres (lower.
Observations from Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS on Aura are used here to study the thermal characteristics of the stratosphere in the Canadian-US (253° E and Scandinavian-Europe (16° E sectors. Undisturbed high latitude stratopause (55 km zonal mean temperatures during the mid-winter (December–February reached 270 K, warmer than empirical-models such as CIRA-86, suggesting that seasonal polar warming due to dynamical influences affects the high altitude stratosphere as well as the mesosphere. There were also significant stratopause differences between Scandinavia and Canada during the warming events of 1 January and 1 February, with higher temperatures near 275 K at 16° E. During the 25 February "PWC" event a warming occurred at low and middle stratospheric heights (10–30 km: 220 K at 253° E and the stratopause cooled; while over Scandinavia-Europe the stratosphere below ~30 km was relatively cold at 195 K and the stratopause became even warmer (>295 K and lower (~45 km. The zonal winds followed the associated temperature gradients so that the vertical and latitudinal gradients of the winds differed strongly -
Flasar, F. Michael; Achterberg, Richard; Jennings, Donald; Schinder, Paul
2011-01-01
We summarize the changes in Titans thermal structure derived from Cassini CIRS and radio-occultation data during the transition from winter to early spring. Titan's surface, and middle atmosphere show noticeable seasonal change, whereas that in most of the troposphere is mated. This can be understood in terms of the relatively small radiative relaxation time in the middle atmosphere and much larger time scale in the troposphere. The surface exhibits seasonal change because the heat capacity in an annual skin depth is much smaller than that in the lowest scale height of the troposphere. Surface temperatures rise 1 K at raid and high latitudes in the winter northern hemisphere and cool in the southern hemisphere. Changes in in the middle atmosphere are more complicated. Temperatures in the middle stratosphere (approximately 1 mbar) increase by a few kelvin at mid northern latitudes, but those at high latitudes first increase as that region moves out of winter shadow, and then decrease. This probably results from the combined effect of increased solar heating as the suit moves higher in the sky and the decreased adiabatic warming as the sinking motions associated with the cross-equatorial meridional cell weaken. Consistent with this interpretation, the warm temperatures observed higher up at the winter polar stratopause cool significantly.
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Feng, S.
2017-12-01
Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.
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Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures
Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Hendricks, Nathan
2017-11-01
Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.
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Warm and Dry Spells (WDS in Austral Winter over Central South America
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Satyamurty
2007-06-01
Full Text Available The horizontal and vertical structure of unusually warm and dry spells (WDS over the central parts of South America during the winter and post-winter months (JJAS are studied. During WDS the mean temperature and humidity anomalies over central Brazil are about +4.1°C and −13.2%, respectively. The mean duration of WDS is 11 days and their mean frequency is less than one per year during the months of JJAS. Apparently, WDS have no preference for the phase of ENSO. Widespread and persistent subsidence in the middle troposphere is observed in tropical Brazil during WDS, which renders the lower tropospheric air warm and dry. The negative anomalies of the specific humidity are observed to be associated with the subsidence regions. A strong, slow moving ridge in the eastern South Pacific and a low-pressure center in northern Argentina are important surface characteristics during the WDS. A more detailed investigation of two specific WDS events, a strong event (August–September 1999 and a moderate one (June 2002, shows a blocking-like situation in the 500-hPa geopotential and surface pressure fields in the Pacific. The South Atlantic subtropical high somewhat approaches the continent. Strong northerlies over the central and eastern parts of Brazil are also observed in the lower troposphere. During WDS the regional circulation acquires summertime characteristics, except for the absence of precipitation, and the circulation in the meridional plane is in the opposite sense from the Hadley circulation. A frontal system, supported by a 500-hPa trough, advances into central Brazil, causing the dissipation of the anomalous situation.
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Novel psychrotolerant picocyanobacteria isolated from Chesapeake Bay in the winter.
Xu, Yongle; Jiao, Nianzhi; Chen, Feng
2015-08-01
Picocyanobacteria are major primary producers in the ocean, especially in the tropical or subtropical oceans or during warm seasons. Many "warm" picocyanobacterial species have been isolated and characterized. However, picocyanobacteria in cold environments or cold seasons are much less studied. In general, little is known about the taxonomy and ecophysiology of picocyanobacteria living in the winter. In this study, 17 strains of picocyanobacteria were isolated from Chesapeake Bay, a temperate estuarine ecosystem, during the winter months. These winter isolates belong to five distinct phylogenetic lineages, and are distinct from the picocyanobacteria previously isolated from the warm seasons. The vast majority of the winter isolates were closely related to picocyanobacteria isolated from other cold environments like Arctic or subalpine waters. The winter picocyanobacterial isolates were able to maintain slow growth or prolonged dormancy at 4°C. Interestingly, the phycoerythrin-rich strains outperformed the phycocyanin-rich strains at cold temperature. In addition, winter picocyanobacteria changed their morphology when cultivated at 4°C. The close phylogenetic relationship between the winter picocyanobacteria and the picocyanobacteria living in high latitude cold regions indicates that low temperature locations select specific ecotypes of picocyanobacteria. © 2015 Phycological Society of America.
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Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea Damm
2017-08-01
Under +2 °C warming, the weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays related to skiing tourism in Europe amounts to up to 10.1 million nights per winter season, which is +7.3 million overnight stays additionally at risk compared to the reference period (1971–2000. Among the top four European skiing tourism nations – Austria, France, Italy and Switzerland – France and Switzerland show the lowest increase in risk of losses in winter overnight stays. The highest weather-induced risk of losses in winter overnight stays – in the reference period as well as in the +2 °C scenarios – is found in Austria, followed by Italy. These two countries account for the largest fraction of winter overnight stays in skiing related NUTS-3 regions.
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Mortality impact of extreme winter temperatures
Díaz, Julio; García, Ricardo; López, César; Linares, Cristina; Tobías, Aurelio; Prieto, Luis
2005-01-01
During the last few years great attention has been paid to the evaluation of the impact of extreme temperatures on human health. This paper examines the effect of extreme winter temperature on mortality in Madrid for people older than 65, using ARIMA and GAM models. Data correspond to 1,815 winter days over the period 1986 1997, during which time a total of 133,000 deaths occurred. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax) was shown to be the best thermal indicator of the impact of climate on mortality. When total mortality was considered, the maximum impact occured 7 8 days after a temperature extreme; for circulatory diseases the lag was between 7 and 14 days. When respiratory causes were considered, two mortality peaks were evident at 4 5 and 11 days. When the impact of winter extreme temperatures was compared with that associated with summer extremes, it was found to occur over a longer term, and appeared to be more indirect.
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The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002
Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.
2003-01-01
The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.
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Bjerke, J.W.; Bokhorst, S.F.; Callaghan, T.V.; Phoenix, G.K.
2017-01-01
Winter is a period of dormancy for plants of cold environments. However, winter climate is changing, leading to an increasing frequency of stochastic warm periods (winter warming events) and concomitant reductions in snow cover. These conditions can break dormancy for some plants and expose them to
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Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.
2017-01-01
Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.
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Bokhorst, S.F.; Phoenix, G.K.; Bjerke, J.W.; Callaghan, T.V.; Huyer-Brugman, F.A.; Berg, M.P.
2012-01-01
Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate
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Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong
2014-01-01
The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.
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Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong
2017-01-01
The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Semenchuk, Philipp R.; Elberling, Bo; Cooper, Elisabeth J.
2013-01-01
octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme...... winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering...... events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas...
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Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.
Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa
2011-04-01
Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.
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Stay Warm in Winter (A Cup of Health with CDC)
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts
When frigid winter temperatures hit the U.S., the risk for unhealthy exposure to cold increases substantially. In this podcast, Dr. Jonathan Meiman discusses the dangers of exposure to extremely cold temperatures.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Neukom, R.; Grosjean, M.; Wanner, H. [University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, Bern (Switzerland); Luterbacher, J. [Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Giessen (Germany); Villalba, R.; Morales, M.; Srur, A. [CONICET, Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), Mendoza (Argentina); Kuettel, M. [University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, Bern (Switzerland); University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle (United States); Frank, D. [Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf (Switzerland); Jones, P.D. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Aravena, J.-C. [Centro de Estudios Cuaternarios de Fuego Patagonia y Antartica (CEQUA), Punta Arenas (Chile); Black, D.E. [Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook (United States); Christie, D.A.; Urrutia, R. [Universidad Austral de Chile Valdivia, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Valdivia (Chile); D' Arrigo, R. [Earth Institute at Columbia University, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Lara, A. [Universidad Austral de Chile Valdivia, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Valdivia (Chile); Nucleo Cientifico Milenio FORECOS, Fundacion FORECOS, Valdivia (Chile); Soliz-Gamboa, C. [Utrecht Univ., Inst. of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Gunten, L. von [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland); Univ. of Massachusetts, Climate System Research Center, Amherst (United States)
2011-07-15
We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales. (orig.)
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Shukurov, K. A.; Semenov, V. A.
2018-01-01
On the basis of observational data on daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents Sea (BS), the characteristics of strong positive and negative winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been studied in comparison with BS SIC data obtained in 1949-2016. An analysis of surface backward trajectories of air-particle motions has revealed the most probable paths of both cold and warm air invasions into Moscow and located regions that mostly affect strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies that cause strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow have been revealed. Changes in the ways of both cold and warm air invasions have been found, as well as an increase in the frequency of blocking anticyclones in 2005-2016 when compared to 1970-1999. The results suggest that a winter SIC decrease in the BS in 2005-2016 affects strong winter SAT anomalies in Moscow due to an increase in the frequency of occurrence of blocking anticyclones to the south of and over the BS.
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Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun
2017-04-01
The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a
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Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians
Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin
2015-04-01
Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.
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Impacts of winter NPO on subsequent winter ENSO: sensitivity to the definition of NPO index
Chen, Shangfeng; Wu, Renguang
2018-01-01
This study investigates the linkage between boreal winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and subsequent winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based on seven different NPO indices. Results show that the influence of winter NPO on the subsequent winter El Niño is sensitive to how the NPO is defined. A significant NPO-El Niño connection is obtained when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific extends to near-equatorial regions. The anomalous cyclone induces warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies through modulating surface heat fluxes. These warm SST anomalies are able to maintain into the following spring and summer through an air-sea coupled process and in turn induce significant westerly wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific. In contrast, the NPO-El Niño relationship is unclear when the NPO-related anomalous cyclone over the subtropical North Pacific is confined to off-equatorial regions and cannot induce significant warm SST anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific. The present study suggests that definitions of NPO should be taken into account when using NPO to predict ENSO. In particular, we recommend defining the NPO index based on the empirical orthogonal function technique over appropriate region that does not extend too far north.
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Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara
2014-09-01
Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.
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Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby
2015-10-01
Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Stay Warm in Winter (A Minute of Health with CDC)
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts
2015-02-26
Hypothermia occurs when the core body temperature is less than 95 degrees. This podcast discusses strategies to prevent hypothermia due to frigid winters temperatures. Created: 2/26/2015 by MMWR. Date Released: 2/26/2015.
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Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ingrid H. Onarheim
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has up to now been strongest during summer. In contrast, the sea ice concentration north of Svalbard has experienced a larger decline during winter since 1979. The trend in winter ice area loss is close to 10% per decade, and concurrent with a 0.3°C per decade warming of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean in this region. Simultaneously, there has been a 2°C per decade warming of winter mean surface air temperature north of Svalbard, which is 20–45% higher than observations on the west coast. Generally, the ice edge north of Svalbard has retreated towards the northeast, along the Atlantic Water pathway. By making reasonable assumptions about the Atlantic Water volume and associated heat transport, we show that the extra oceanic heat brought into the region is likely to have caused the sea ice loss. The reduced sea ice cover leads to more oceanic heat transferred to the atmosphere, suggesting that part of the atmospheric warming is driven by larger open water area. In contrast to significant trends in sea ice concentration, Atlantic Water temperature and air temperature, there is no significant temporal trend in the local winds. Thus, winds have not caused the long-term warming or sea ice loss. However, the dominant winds transport sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the region north of Svalbard, and the local wind has influence on the year-to-year variability of the ice concentration, which correlates with surface air temperatures, ocean temperatures, as well as the local wind.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuhan Lu
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Observational records in recent decades show a large-scale decrease in the cold-season temperature variance in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes under continuous global warming. However, severe low temperature events in winter frequently occurred in midlatitude Eurasia (MEA in the last decade. Here, we define a new coldness intensity (CI index for the near-surface based on the amplitude of daily anomalously cold temperatures in winter to demonstrate the CI of the variability of low temperature extremes. The results show that a sign-consistent mode dominates the CI variation in MEA, with a marked intensification during the last decade via empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis. This leading mode is significantly related to the frequency of winter extreme events. The associated circulations are characterized by a remarkable anomalous anticyclone in Northwest Eurasia, which induced substantial cold advection in MEA. The widespread intensified CI in MEA is closely linked with strong surface anticyclones and synoptic blocking in the mid-high latitudes (25°E–85°E. Coincidently, positive phase shifts of the first two leading modes of the extratropical circulation, which feature similar blocking-like anomalies in the northwestern Eurasian subarctic, jointly play an important role in the recent frequency of severe winters.
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Stay Warm in Winter (A Cup of Health with CDC)
Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts
2015-02-26
When frigid winter temperatures hit the U.S., the risk for unhealthy exposure to cold increases substantially. In this podcast, Dr. Jonathan Meiman discusses the dangers of exposure to extremely cold temperatures. Created: 2/26/2015 by MMWR. Date Released: 2/26/2015.
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Threats to North American Forests from Southern Pine Beetle with Warming Winters
Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Dodds, Kevin; Horton, Radley M.
2016-01-01
In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to lift range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change. Here we present the first projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption oflocal ecosystem services, dramatic shifts in forest structure, and threats to native biodiversity.
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Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells
Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.
2017-12-01
It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically
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Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?
Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian
2013-04-01
We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)
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How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?
Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue
2017-03-11
Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.
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Eyshi Rezaei, Ehsan; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank
2015-02-01
Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951-2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology.
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Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ishtiaq Hassan
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.
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European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability
Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.
2017-12-01
Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.
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Lei, T.; Li, S.; Luo, F.; Han, Z.
2017-12-01
The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China. Mechanism exploration indicates that the displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet and the associated Rossby wave may have contributed to the cooling trend. A southward shift of the East Asian polar together with a northward shift of the subtropical jet caused the enhancement of the northern East Asian trough and Siberian High. A diagnostic analysis suggests that the Arctic sea ice loss, ENSO and North Atlantic SST all play a role. With the three factors removed, the air temperature trend is -0.35, -0.08 and -0.44°/decade over East China, Northeast China and Southeast China, respectively.
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Validation of a limited area model over Dome C, Antarctic Plateau, during winter
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gallee, Hubert; Gorodetskaya, Irina V. [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement, CNRS, 54, rue Moliere, BP. 96, St Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)
2010-01-15
The limited area model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional) is validated over the Antarctic Plateau for the period 2004-2006, focussing on Dome C during the cold season. MAR simulations are made by initializing the model once and by forcing it through its lateral and top boundaries by the ECMWF operational analyses. Model outputs compare favourably with observations from automatic weather station (AWS), radiometers and atmospheric soundings. MAR is able to simulate the succession of cold and warm events which occur at Dome C during winter. Larger longwave downwelling fluxes (LWD) are responsible for higher surface air temperatures and weaker surface inversions during winter. Warm events are better simulated when the small Antarctic precipitating snow particles are taken into account in radiative transfer computations. MAR stratosphere cools during the cold season, with the coldest temperatures occurring in conjunction with warm events at the surface. The decrease of saturation specific humidity associated with these coldest temperatures is responsible for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) especially in August-September. PSCs then contribute to the surface warming by increasing the surface downwelling longwave flux. (orig.)
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Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming
Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert
2016-01-01
The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.
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Sox, L.; Wickwar, V. B.; Fish, C. S.; Herron, J. P.
2014-12-01
Mesospheric temperature anomalies associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) have been observed extensively in the polar regions. However, observations of these anomalies at midlatitudes are sparse. The very dense 11-year data set, collected between 1993-2004, with the Rayleigh-scatter lidar at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO; 41.7°N, 111.8°W) at the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences (CASS) on the campus of Utah State University (USU), has been carefully examined for such anomalies. The temperatures derived from these data extend over the mesosphere, from 45 to 90 km. During this period extensive data were acquired during seven major SSW events. In this work we aim to determine the characteristics of the midlatitude mesospheric temperatures during these seven major SSWs. To do this, comparisons were made between the temperature profiles on individual nights before, during, and after the SSW events and the corresponding derived climatological temperature profiles (31-day by 11-year average) for those nights. A consistent disturbance pattern was observed in the mesospheric temperatures during these SSWs. A distinct shift from the nominal winter temperature pattern to a pattern more characteristic of summer temperatures was seen in the midlatitude mesosphere close to when the zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (at 10 hPa, 60° N) reversed from eastward to westward. This shift lasted for several days. This change in pattern included coolings in the upper mesosphere, comparable to those seen in the polar regions, and warmings in the lower mesosphere.
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Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis
2012-05-01
Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. Pei
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rezaei, Ehsan Eyshi; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank
2015-01-01
Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951–2009, interpolated to 1 × 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology. (letter)
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South-coast cyclone in Japan during El Niño-caused warm winters
Ueda, Hiroaki; Amagai, Yuusuke; Hayasaki, Masamitsu
2017-05-01
La Niña conditions during boreal winter sometimes brings excessive snowfall in Japan, especially on the East Sea/Sea of Japan coastal and mountain areas through intensified northwesterly cold winds caused by La-Niña related atmospheric teleconnection. Meanwhile, snowfall events also increase in the Pacific coast area of Japan during the El Niño state due to extratropical cyclones passing along the south coast of Japan (hereafter referred to as South-coast cyclone). In the present study, we investigated year-to-year snowfall/rainfall variations based on meteorological station data and cyclone tracks identified by using the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis. The result clearly indicates increase of the South-coast cyclone during El Niño-developing winters, which is consistent with excessive snow-fall in the northern part of the Pacific coast. Strong subtropical jet hampers cyclogenesis due to less vertical interaction through the trapping of upper-level eddies. During El Niño-developing winters, the subtropical jet is weakened over East Asia, indicating dynamic linkage to increased cyclone frequency. In addition to this, both the deepening of the upper-tropospheric trough over East Asia and anomalous low-tropospheric northwest anticyclones extending from the Philippines toward Japan are also consistent with the enhancement of cyclogenesis over the East China Sea as well as warm winter in Japan.
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Pei, Lijian; Huang, Yuguang; Xu, Yiyao; Zheng, Yongchang; Sang, Xinting; Zhou, Xiaoyun; Li, Shanqing; Mao, Guangmei; Mascha, Edward J; Sessler, Daniel I
2018-05-01
The effect of ambient temperature, with and without active warming, on intraoperative core temperature remains poorly characterized. The authors determined the effect of ambient temperature on core temperature changes with and without forced-air warming. In this unblinded three-by-two factorial trial, 292 adults were randomized to ambient temperatures 19°, 21°, or 23°C, and to passive insulation or forced-air warming. The primary outcome was core temperature change between 1 and 3 h after induction. Linear mixed-effects models assessed the effects of ambient temperature, warming method, and their interaction. A 1°C increase in ambient temperature attenuated the negative slope of core temperature change 1 to 3 h after anesthesia induction by 0.03 (98.3% CI, 0.01 to 0.06) °Ccore/(h°Cambient) (P ambient temperature with passive insulation, but was unaffected by ambient temperature during forced-air warming (0.02 [98.3% CI, -0.04 to 0.09] °Ccore/°Cambient; P = 0.40). After an average of 3.4 h of surgery, core temperature was 36.3° ± 0.5°C in each of the forced-air groups, and ranged from 35.6° to 36.1°C in passively insulated patients. Ambient intraoperative temperature has a negligible effect on core temperature when patients are warmed with forced air. The effect is larger when patients are passively insulated, but the magnitude remains small. Ambient temperature can thus be set to comfortable levels for staff in patients who are actively warmed.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hong, J. B.; Hong, S. B. [Rural Development Cooperation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
1990-09-15
The power water flowed out from the multipurpose darn influences the ecosystem approximately because of the low water temperature. An appropriate counter measure to the rising water temperature is needed for growing crops especially when the temperature is below 18°C in the source of the irrigation water This observational study is practiced in Yong-Doo water warming canal and pond in the down stream of Choong-Ju multipurpose dam and is practiced for analyse and compare the rising effects in actural water temperature by actual measurement with the rising effects of planned water temperatuer by the basic theoritical method and for the help to present the direction in plan establishment through investigate the results afterwards. The results are as follows. 1. The degree of the rise of the water temperature can be decided by θ{sub x} = θ{sub 0} + K (L/(v * h)) * (T - θ{sub 0}) Then, K values of a factor representing the characteristics of the water warming canal were 0.00002043 for the type I. and 0.0000173 for the type II. respectively. 2. A variation of water temperature which produced by the difference effective temperature and water temperature in the water warming canal was θ{sub x1} = 16.5 + 15.9 (1-e{sup -0.00018x}), θ{sub x2} = 18.8 + 8.4(1-e{sup -0.000298x}) for the type I. and θ{sub x} = 19.6 + 12.8 (1-e{sup -0.00041x}) for the type II. 3. It was shown that the effects of the rise of water temperature for the type I. water warming canal were greater than that of type II. as a resultes of broadening the surface of the canal compared with the depth of water, coloring the surface of water canal and installing the resistance block. 4. In case of the type I. water warming canal, the equation between the air temperature and the degree of the rise of water temprature could be made; Y = 0.4134X + 7.728 In addition, in case of the type II. water warming canal, the correlation was very low. 5. A monthly variation of the water temperature in the water warming
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Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016
Cullather, Richard I.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Boisvert, Linette N.; Brucker, Ludovic; Lee, Jae N.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.
2016-01-01
December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yim, Bo Young; Noh, Yign [Yonsei University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Laboratory, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yeh, Sang-Wook [Hanyang University, Department of Environmental Marine Science, Ansan (Korea, Republic of)
2012-03-15
It is investigated how the changes of winter sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) under climate change projections are predicted differently in the North Pacific depending on the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), and how they are related to the dynamical property of the simulated ocean mixed layer. For this purpose the dataset from eleven CGCMs reported to IPCC's AR4 are used, while detailed analysis is given to the MRI and MIROC models. Analysis of the CGCM data reveals that the increase of SST and the decrease of MLD in response to global warming tend to be smaller for the CGCM in which the ratio of ocean heat transport (OHT) to surface heat flux (SHF), R (=OHT/SHF), is larger in the heat budget of the mixed layer. The negative correlation is found between the changes of OHT and SHF under global warming, which may weaken the response to global warming in the CGCM with larger R. It is also found that the models with low horizontal resolution tend to give broader western boundary currents, larger R, and the smaller changes of SST and MLD under global warming. (orig.)
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Temperature adaptation of bacterial communities in experimentally warmed forest soils.
Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita D; Bååth, Erland
2012-10-01
A detailed understanding of the influence of temperature on soil microbial activity is critical to predict future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and feedbacks to anthropogenic warming. We investigated soils exposed to 3-4 years of continuous 5 °C-warming in a field experiment in a temperate forest. We found that an index for the temperature adaptation of the microbial community, T min for bacterial growth, increased by 0.19 °C per 1 °C rise in temperature, showing a community shift towards one adapted to higher temperature with a higher temperature sensitivity (Q 10(5-15 °C) increased by 0.08 units per 1 °C). Using continuously measured temperature data from the field experiment we modelled in situ bacterial growth. Assuming that warming did not affect resource availability, bacterial growth was modelled to become 60% higher in warmed compared to the control plots, with the effect of temperature adaptation of the community only having a small effect on overall bacterial growth (bacterial growth, most likely due to substrate depletion because of the initially higher growth in warmed plots. When this was factored in, the result was similar rates of modelled in situ bacterial growth in warmed and control plots after 3 years, despite the temperature difference. We conclude that although temperature adaptation for bacterial growth to higher temperatures was detectable, its influence on annual bacterial growth was minor, and overshadowed by the direct temperature effect on growth rates. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang
2017-01-01
The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.
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Raising of Operating a Motor Vehicle Effects on Environment in Winter
Ertman, S. A.; Ertman, J. A.; Zakharov, D. A.
2016-08-01
Severe low-temperature conditions, in which considerable part of Russian Motor Park is operated, affect vehicles negatively. Cold weather causes higher fuel consumption and C02 emissions always. It is because of temperature profile changing of automobile motors, other systems and materials. For enhancement of car operation efficiency in severe winter environment the dependency of engine warm-up and cooling time on ambient air temperature and wind speed described by multifactorial mathematical models is established. -On the basis of experimental research it was proved that the coolant temperature constitutes the engine representative temperature and may be used as representative temperature of engine at large. The model of generation of integrated index for vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines was developed. the method for evaluation of vehicle adaptability to winter operating conditions by temperature profile of engines allows to decrease higher fuel consumption in cold climate.
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Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie
2017-12-01
The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant
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Carey, S. K.
2006-12-01
temperatures. This has important implications for carbon mass balances as warming temperatures in the pan-arctic are largely occurring during the winter months.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. Pancheva
2009-03-01
Full Text Available This paper is focused on the nonmigrating tidal activity seen in the SABER/TIMED temperatures that is related to the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW taking place in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004. The emphasis is on the nonmigrating diurnal tides observed in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere which is usually accepted to be insignificant in comparison with that in the upper mesosphere and thermosphere. By using different independent spectral methods we found a significant amplification in December–January of the following nonmigrating 24-h tides: zonally symmetric (s=0, eastward propagating with zonal wavenumber 1 (E1, and westward propagating with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 (W2 and W3 tides. It has been found that the double peak nonmigrating tidal amplifications located in the stratosphere (~40 km and in the lower mesosphere (~70 km are a consequence of the maintained hydrostatic relation. By detailed comparison of the evolution and spatial structure of the nonmigrating diurnal tides with those of the migrating diurnal tide and stationary planetary waves (SPWs evidence for a SPW-migrating tide interaction as a source of nonmigrating tides has been presented. Therefore, the nonmigrating 24-h tides turn out to be an important component of the middle atmosphere dynamics during the major SSW in the Arctic winter of 2003/2004.
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Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming
Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.
2017-10-01
Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Heide, O. M. [Agricultural Univesity of Norway, Department of Biology and Nature Conservation, As (Norway)
2003-09-01
The effect of temperature during short-day dormancy induction on the duration and stability of bud dormancy was examined in three boreal tree species (2 birches and 1 alder) grown in a controlled environment. The phenology of the latitudinal range of birch populations, and the relationship between spring bud burst and autumn and spring temperatures were also studied. Results showed that during short-day dormancy induction in the autumn high temperatures delayed bud burst in the following spring in both controlled and natural environments. It is suggested that this response to higher autumn temperatures may be a manifestation of a general synergism between high temperature and short-day photoperiodic processes, and may be an adaptive mechanism common to boreal trees. It is further conjectured that this mechanism may be important in counterbalancing the potentially adverse effects of higher winter temperatures on dormancy stability of boreal trees during climate warming. 23 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.
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Preliminary Evidence for the Amplification of Global Warming in Shallow, Intertidal Estuarine Waters
Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. We hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<2m), nearshore portions ...
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Cambridge, M. L.; Breeman, A. M.; Kraak, S.; van den Hoek, C.
1987-09-01
The relationship between distribution boundaries and temperature responses of some North Atlantic Cladophora species (Chlorophyta) was experimentally examined under various regimes of temperature, light and daylength. Experimentally determined critical temperature intervals, in which survival, growth or reproduction was limited, were compared with annual temperature regimes (monthly means and extremes) at sites inside and outside distribution boundaries. The species tested belonged to two phytogeographic groups: (1) the tropical West Atlantic group ( C. submarina: isolate from Curaçao) and (2) the amphiatlantic tropical to warm temperate group ( C. prolifera: isolate from Corsica; C. coelothrix: isolates from Brittany and Curaçao; and C. laetevirens: isolates from deep and shallow water in Corsica and from Brittany). In accordance with distribution from tropical to warm temperate regions, each of the species grew well between 20 30°C and reproduction and growth were limited at and below 15°C. The upper survival limit in long days was <35°C in all species but high or maximum growth rates occurred at 30°C. C. prolifera, restricted to the tropical margins, had the most limited survival at 35°C. Experimental evidence suggests that C. submarina is restricted to the Caribbean and excluded from the more northerly American mainland and Gulf of Mexico coasts by sporadic low winter temperatures in the nearshore waters, when cold northerly weather penetrates far south every few years. Experimental evidence suggests that C. prolifera, C. coelothrix and C. laetevirens are restricted to their northern European boundaries by summer temperatures too low for sufficient growth and/or reproduction. Their progressively more northerly located boundaries were accounted for by differences in growth rates over the critical 10 15°C interval. C. prolifera and C. coelothrix are excluded or restricted in distribution on North Sea coasts by lethal winter temperatures, again differences
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Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H
2016-01-01
The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific...... attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies......, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation...
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A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation
Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai
2018-03-01
Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.
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Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan
2014-01-01
Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)
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A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. F. Lewin
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ∼ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ∼ 2–3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming
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A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature
Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair
2017-09-01
Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.
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Evaluation of winter temperatures on apple budbreak using grafted twigs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fernando José Hawerroth
2013-09-01
Full Text Available Temperature is the main climate factor related to induction, maintenance and dormancy release in apple (Malus domestica Borkh.. The inadequate chilling exposure in apples causes budbreak problems, resulting in decrease in yield potential. Thus, the knowledge of physiological principles and environmental factors determining the dormancy phenomenon, especially winter temperature effects, it is necessary for the efficient selection of cultivars in a productive region. In addition, it is indispensable to adapt the orchard management aiming to decrease the problems caused by lack chilling during winter. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different thermal conditions during the dormancy period on budbreak of apple cultivars. One-year-old twigs of 'Castel Gala' and 'Royal Gala' cultivars, grafted on M7 rootstock, were submitted to temperatures of 5, 10 and 15ºC for different exposure periods (168; 336; 672; 1,008 and 1,344 hours. After treatments execution, the plants were kept in a greenhouse at 25ºC. Budbreak was quantified when accumulated 3,444; 6,888; 10,332; 13,776; 17,220 and 20,664 GDHºC after temperature treatments. The cultivars responded differently to temperature effect during the winter period. The temperature of 15ºC during winter shows a greater effectiveness on 'Castel Gala' apple budbreak while in the 'Royal Gala' apples the temperatures of 5 and 10ºC show better performance. 'Castel Gala' cultivar (low chilling requirement may supply its physiological necessities, may be capable to budburst, even when subjected to higher temperatures in relation to 'Royal Gala' apples (high chilling requirement.
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Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ionan Marigómez
Full Text Available In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16-24°C, winter: 12-20°C, summer: 20-28°C and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution.
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Common Warm Dust Temperatures Around Main Sequence Stars
Morales, Farisa; Rieke, George; Werner, Michael; Stapelfeldt, Karl; Bryden, Geoffrey; Su, Kate
2011-01-01
We compare the properties of warm dust emission from a sample of main-sequence A-type stars (B8-A7) to those of dust around solar-type stars (F5-KO) with similar Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph/MIPS data and similar ages. Both samples include stars with sources with infrared spectral energy distributions that show evidence of multiple components. Over the range of stellar types considered, we obtain nearly the same characteristic dust temperatures (∼ 190 K and ∼60 K for the inner and outer dust components, respectively)-slightly above the ice evaporation temperature for the inner belts. The warm inner dust temperature is readily explained if populations of small grains are being released by sublimation of ice from icy planetesimals. Evaporation of low-eccentricity icy bodies at ∼ 150 K can deposit particles into an inner/warm belt, where the small grains are heated to dust Temperatures of -190 K. Alternatively, enhanced collisional processing of an asteroid belt-like system of parent planetesimals just interior to the snow line may account for the observed uniformity in dust temperature. The similarity in temperature of the warmer dust across our B8-KO stellar sample strongly suggests that dust-producing planetesimals are not found at similar radial locations around all stars, but that dust production is favored at a characteristic temperature horizon.
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Petzoldt, K.
1989-04-01
For the MAP/WINE winter temperature and wind measurements of rockets were combined with SSU radiances (Stratospheric Sounder Unit onboard the NOAA satellites) and stratopause heights from the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) to get a retrieved data set including all available information. By means of this data set a hemispheric geopotential height, temperature and geostrophic wind fields eddy transports for wave mean flow interaction and potential vorticity for the interpretation of nonlinear wave breaking could be computed. Wave reflection at critical lines was investigated with respect of stratospheric warmings. The meridional gradient of the potential vorticity and focusing of wave activity is compared with derived data from satellite observations during other winters.
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Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping
2013-01-01
Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182
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Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S
2017-01-01
The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is
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Upper lethal temperatures in three cold-tolerant insects are higher in winter than in summer.
Vu, Henry M; Duman, John G
2017-08-01
Upper lethal temperatures (ULTs) of cold-adapted insect species in winter have not been previously examined. We anticipated that as the lower lethal temperatures (LLTs) decreased (by 20-30°C) with the onset of winter, the ULTs would also decrease accordingly. Consequently, given the recent increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles and warmer winters due to climate change, it became of interest to determine whether ambient temperatures during thaws were approaching ULTs during the cold seasons. However, beetle Dendroides canadensis (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) larvae had higher 24 and 48 h ULT 50 (the temperature at which 50% mortality occurred) in winter than in summer. The 24 and 48 h ULT 50 for D. canadensis in winter were 40.9 and 38.7°C, respectively. For D. canadensis in summer, the 24 and 48 h ULT 50 were 36.7 and 36.4°C. During the transition periods of spring and autumn, the 24 h ULT 50 was 37.3 and 38.5°C, respectively. While D. canadensis in winter had a 24 h LT 50 range between LLT and ULT of 64°C, the summer range was only 41°C. Additionally, larvae of the beetle Cucujus clavipes clavipes (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) and the cranefly Tipula trivittata (Diptera: Tipulidae) also had higher ULTs in winter than in summer. This unexpected phenomenon of increased temperature survivorship at both lower and higher temperatures in the winter compared with that in the summer has not been previously documented. With the decreased high temperature tolerance as the season progresses from winter to summer, it was observed that environmental temperatures are closest to upper lethal temperatures in spring. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.
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Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature
Bintanja, R.
2012-04-01
Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.
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Polar warming in the middle atmosphere of Mars
Deming, D.; Mumma, M. J.; Espenak, F.; Kostiuk, T.; Zipoy, D.
1986-01-01
During the 1984 Mars opposition, ground-based laser heterodyne spectroscopy was obtained for the nonthermal core emission of the 10.33-micron R(8) and 10.72-micron P(32) lines of C-12(O-16)2 at 23 locations on the Martian disk. It is deduced on the basis of these data that the temperature of the middle Martian atmosphere varies with latitude, and a meridional gradient of 0.4-0.9 K/deg latitude is indicated. The highest temperatures are noted to lie at high latitudes in the winter hemisphere; as in the terrestrial case of seasonal effects at the menopause, this winter polar warming in the Martian middle atmosphere requires departures from radiative equilibrium. Two-dimensional circulation model comparisons with these results indicate that atmospheric dust may enhance this dynamical heating at high winter latitudes.
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Climate Response to Negative Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing in Polar Winter
Flanner, M. G.; Huang, X.; Chen, X.; Krinner, G.
2018-02-01
Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth's atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near-surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short-lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.
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Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees.
Luedeling, Eike; Girvetz, Evan H; Semenov, Mikhail A; Brown, Patrick H
2011-01-01
Temperate fruit and nut trees require adequate winter chill to produce economically viable yields. Global warming has the potential to reduce available winter chill and greatly impact crop yields. We estimated winter chill for two past (1975 and 2000) and 18 future scenarios (mid and end 21st century; 3 Global Climate Models [GCMs]; 3 greenhouse gas emissions [GHG] scenarios). For 4,293 weather stations around the world and GCM projections, Safe Winter Chill (SWC), the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of all years, was estimated for all scenarios using the "Dynamic Model" and interpolated globally. We found that SWC ranged between 0 and about 170 Chill Portions (CP) for all climate scenarios, but that the global distribution varied across scenarios. Warm regions are likely to experience severe reductions in available winter chill, potentially threatening production there. In contrast, SWC in most temperate growing regions is likely to remain relatively unchanged, and cold regions may even see an increase in SWC. Climate change impacts on SWC differed quantitatively among GCMs and GHG scenarios, with the highest GHG leading to losses up to 40 CP in warm regions, compared to 20 CP for the lowest GHG. The extent of projected changes in winter chill in many major growing regions of fruits and nuts indicates that growers of these commodities will likely experience problems in the future. Mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce the impacts, however, adaption to changes will have to occur. To better prepare for likely impacts of climate change, efforts should be undertaken to breed tree cultivars for lower chilling requirements, to develop tools to cope with insufficient winter chill, and to better understand the temperature responses of tree crops.
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Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''
Aubrecht, Gordon
2009-04-01
Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Duan, Jianping; Zhang, Qi-Bin; Lv, Lixin; Zhang, Chao [Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Beijing (China)
2012-08-15
Winter-spring cold extreme is a kind of serious natural disaster for southeastern China. As such events are recorded in discrete documents, long and continuous records are required to understand their characteristics and driving forces. Here we report a regional-scale winter-spring (January-April) temperature reconstruction based on a tree-ring network of pine trees (Pinus massoniana) from five sampling sites over a large spatial scale (25-29 N, 111-115 E) in southeastern China. The regional tree-ring chronology explains 48.6% of the instrumental temperature variance during the period 1957-2008. The reconstruction shows six relatively warm intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1849-1855, {proportional_to}1871-1888, {proportional_to}1909-1920, {proportional_to}1939-1944, {proportional_to}1958-1968, 1997-2007) and five cold intervals (i.e., {proportional_to}1860-1870, {proportional_to}1893-1908, {proportional_to}1925-1934, {proportional_to}1945-1957, {proportional_to}1982-1996) during 1849-2008. The last decade and the 1930s were the warmest and coldest decades, respectively, in the past 160 years. The composite analysis of 500-hPa geopotential height fields reveals that distinctly different circulation patterns occurred in the instrumental and pre-instrumental periods. The winter-spring cold extremes in southeastern China are associated with Ural-High ridge pattern for the instrumental period (1957-2008), whereas the cold extremes in pre-instrumental period (1871-1956) are associated with North circulation pattern. (orig.)
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Fossil palm beetles refine upland winter temperatures in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum.
Archibald, S Bruce; Morse, Geoffrey E; Greenwood, David R; Mathewes, Rolf W
2014-06-03
Eocene climate and associated biotic patterns provide an analog system to understand their modern interactions. The relationship between mean annual temperatures and winter temperatures-temperature seasonality-may be an important factor in this dynamic. Fossils of frost-intolerant palms imply low Eocene temperature seasonality into high latitudes, constraining average winter temperatures there to >8 °C. However, their presence in a paleocommunity may be obscured by taphonomic and identification factors for macrofossils and pollen. We circumvented these problems by establishing the presence of obligate palm-feeding beetles (Chrysomelidae: Pachymerina) at three localities (a fourth, tentatively) in microthermal to lower mesothermal Early Eocene upland communities in Washington and British Columbia. This provides support for warmer winter Eocene climates extending northward into cooler Canadian uplands.
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The Middle Atmosphere Program: Winter In Northern Europe (MAP/WINE)
Vonzahn, U.
1982-04-01
The goals of map/wind (winter in Northern Europe) are to better understand: (1) the interaction of planetary waves of tropospheric origin; (2) the temporal and spatial development of sudden stratospheric warmings; (3) the temporal and spatial development of mesospheric cooling events in conjunction with stratospheric warmings; (4) the vertical and horizontal transport of minor constituents; (5) the effects on the chemistry of neutral and charged species of the large temperature changes occurring during stratospheric warmings and mesospheric cooling; (6) sources of turbulent energy; (7) the temporal and spatial development of turbulent layers; and (8) the contributions of dynamical processes to the heating and cooling of the mesospheric and turbopause region.
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Tod, Angela Mary; Lusambili, Adelaide; Homer, Catherine; Abbott, Joanne; Cooke, Joanne Mary; Stocks, Amanda Jayne; McDaid, Kathleen Anne
2012-01-01
To understand the influences and decisions of vulnerable older people in relation to keeping warm in winter. A qualitative study incorporating in-depth, semi-structured individual and group interviews, framework analysis and social marketing segmentation techniques. Rotherham, South Yorkshire, UK. 50 older people (>55) and 25 health and social care staff underwent individual interview. The older people also had household temperature measurements. 24 older people and 19 health and social care staff participated in one of the six group interviews. Multiple complex factors emerged to explain whether vulnerable older people were able to keep warm. These influences combined in various ways that meant older people were not able to or preferred not to access help or change home heating behaviour. Factors influencing behaviours and decisions relating to use of heating, spending money, accessing cheaper tariffs, accessing benefits or asking for help fell into three main categories. These were situational and contextual factors, attitudes and values, and barriers. Barriers included poor knowledge and awareness, technology, disjointed systems and the invisibility of fuel and fuel payment. Findings formed the basis of a social marketing segmentation model used to develop six pen portraits that illustrated how factors that conspire against older people being able to keep warm. The findings illustrate how and why vulnerable older people may be at risk of a cold home. The pen portraits provide an accessible vehicle and reflective tool to raise the capacity of the NHS in responding to their needs in line with the Cold Weather Plan.
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Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lockwood, M; Harrison, R G; Woollings, T; Solanki, S K
2010-01-01
Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650-1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature. We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303-29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.
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Sorensen, P. O.; Templer, P. H.; Finzi, A.
2014-12-01
Mean winter air temperatures have risen by approximately 2.5˚ C per decade over the last fifty years in the northeastern U.S., reducing the maximum depth of winter snowpack by approximately 26 cm over this period and the duration of winter snow cover by 3.6 to 4.2 days per decade. Forest soils in this region are projected to experience a greater number of freeze-thaw cycles and lower minimum winter soil temperatures as the depth and duration of winter snow cover declines in the next century. Climate change is likely to result not only in lower soil temperatures during winter, but also higher soil temperatures during the growing-season. We conducted two complementary experiments to determine how colder soils in winter and warmer soils in the growing-season affect microbial activity in hardwood forests at Harvard Forest, MA and Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH. A combination of removing snow via shoveling and buried heating cables were used to induce freeze-thaw events during winter and to warm soils 5˚C above ambient temperatures during the growing-season. Increasing the depth and duration of soil frost via snow-removal resulted in short-term reductions in soil nitrogen (N) production via microbial proteolytic enzyme activity and net N mineralization following snowmelt, prior to tree leaf-out. Declining mass specific rates of carbon (C) and N mineralization associated with five years of snow removal at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest may be an indication of microbial physiological adaptation to winter climate change. Freeze-thaw cycles during winter reduced microbial extracellular enzyme activity and the temperature sensitivity of microbial C and N mineralization during the growing-season, potentially offsetting nutrient and soil C losses due to soil warming in the growing-season. Our multiple experimental approaches show that winter climate change is likely to contribute to reduced microbial activity in northern hardwood forests.
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Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.
2009-09-01
Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of minimum temperatures during winter is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, winter minimum temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent cold-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict cold-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that low temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily minimum temperatures during winter over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the winter forecast period from 1 December 2007 - 31 March 2008. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated minimum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme cold episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia
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Native temperature regime influences soil response to simulated warming
Timothy G. Whitby; Michael D. Madritch
2013-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase global temperatures and potentially increase soil carbon (C) mineralization, which could lead to a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. However the magnitude and spatial variability of belowground responses to warming are not yet fully understood. Some of the variability may depend...
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Comparison of winter temperature profiles in asphalt and concrete pavements.
2014-06-01
The objectives of this research were to 1) determine which pavement type, asphalt or concrete, has : higher surface temperatures in winter and 2) compare the subsurface temperatures under asphalt and : concrete pavements to determine the pavement typ...
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Grüebler, Martin U.; Widmer, Silv; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Naef-Daenzer, Beat
2014-07-01
The microclimate of potential roost-sites is likely to be a crucial determinant in the optimal roost-site selection of endotherms, in particular during the winter season of temperate zones. Available roost-sites for birds and mammals in European high trunk orchards are mainly tree cavities, wood stacks and artificial nest boxes. However, little is known about the microclimatic patterns inside cavities and thermal advantages of using these winter roost-sites. Here, we simultaneously investigate the thermal patterns of winter roost-sites in relation to winter ambient temperature and their insulation capacity. While tree cavities and wood stacks strongly buffered the daily cycle of temperature changes, nest boxes showed low buffering capacity. The buffering effect of tree cavities was stronger at extreme ambient temperatures compared to temperatures around zero. Heat sources inside roosts amplified Δ T (i.e., the difference between inside and outside temperatures), particularly in the closed roosts of nest boxes and tree cavities, and less in the open wood stacks with stronger circulation of air. Positive Δ T due to the installation of a heat source increased in cold ambient temperatures. These results suggest that orchard habitats in winter show a spatiotemporal mosaic of sites providing different thermal benefits varying over time and in relation to ambient temperatures. At cold temperatures tree cavities provide significantly higher thermal benefits than nest boxes or wood stacks. Thus, in winter ecology of hole-using endotherms, the availability of tree cavities may be an important characteristic of winter habitat quality.
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Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.
2017-12-01
Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ambarish V Karmalkar
Full Text Available The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hansen, Brage B; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø; Loe, Leif E; Coulson, Stephen J; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein
2014-01-01
One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties. (letter)
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Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein
2014-11-01
One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.
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Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B
2017-05-01
Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia
Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong
2013-01-01
Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between
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Effect of warm compress application on tissue temperature in healthy dogs.
Millard, Ralph P; Towle-Millard, Heather A; Rankin, David C; Roush, James K
2013-03-01
To measure the effect of warm compress application on tissue temperature in healthy dogs. 10 healthy mixed-breed dogs. Dogs were sedated with hydromorphone (0.1 mg/kg, IV) and diazepam (0.25 mg/kg, IV). Three 24-gauge thermocouple needles were inserted to a depth of 0.5 cm (superficial), 1.0 cm (middle), and 1.5 cm (deep) into a shaved, lumbar, epaxial region to measure tissue temperature. Warm (47°C) compresses were applied with gravity dependence for periods of 5, 10, and 20 minutes. Tissue temperature was recorded before compress application and at intervals for up to 80 minutes after application. Control data were collected while dogs received identical sedation but with no warm compress. Mean temperature associated with 5 minutes of heat application at the superficial, middle, and deep depths was significantly increased, compared with the control temperature. Application for 10 minutes significantly increased the temperature at all depths, compared with 5 minutes of application. Mean temperature associated with 20 minutes of application was not different at the superficial or middle depths, compared with 10 minutes of application. Temperature at the deep depth associated with 10 minutes of application was significantly higher, compared with 20 minutes of application, but all temperature increases at this depth were minimal. Results suggested that application of a warm compress should be performed for 10 minutes. Changes in temperature at a tissue depth of 1.5 cm were minimal or not detected. The optimal compress temperature to achieve therapeutic benefits was not determined.
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Global warming leads to more uniform spring phenology across elevations.
Vitasse, Yann; Signarbieux, Constant; Fu, Yongshuo H
2018-01-30
One hundred years ago, Andrew D. Hopkins estimated the progressive delay in tree leaf-out with increasing latitude, longitude, and elevation, referred to as "Hopkins' bioclimatic law." What if global warming is altering this well-known law? Here, based on ∼20,000 observations of the leaf-out date of four common temperate tree species located in 128 sites at various elevations in the European Alps, we found that the elevation-induced phenological shift (EPS) has significantly declined from 34 d⋅1,000 m -1 conforming to Hopkins' bioclimatic law in 1960, to 22 d⋅1,000 m -1 in 2016, i.e., -35%. The stronger phenological advance at higher elevations, responsible for the reduction in EPS, is most likely to be connected to stronger warming during late spring as well as to warmer winter temperatures. Indeed, under similar spring temperatures, we found that the EPS was substantially reduced in years when the previous winter was warmer. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining EPS over the last six decades. Future climate warming may further reduce the EPS with consequences for the structure and function of mountain forest ecosystems, in particular through changes in plant-animal interactions, but the actual impact of such ongoing change is today largely unknown.
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Wheat production in Bangladesh: its future in the light of global warming
Hossain, Akbar; Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
2012-01-01
Background and aims The most fundamental activity of the people of Bangladesh is agriculture. Modelling projections for Bangladesh indicate that warmer temperatures linked to climate change will severely reduce the growth of various winter crops (wheat, boro rice, potato and winter vegetables) in the north and central parts. In summer, crops in south-eastern parts of the country are at risk from increased flooding as sea levels increase. Key facts Wheat is one of the most important winter crops and is temperature sensitive and the second most important grain crop after rice. In this review, we provide an up-to-date and detailed account of wheat research of Bangladesh and the impact that global warming may have on agriculture, especially wheat production. Although flooding is not of major importance or consequence to the wheat crop at present, some perspectives are provided on this stress since wheat is flood sensitive and the incidence of flooding is likely to increase. Projections This information and projections will allow wheat breeders to devise new breeding programmes to attempt to mitigate future global warming. We discuss what this implies for food security in the broader context of South Asia. PMID:23304431
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Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu
2013-04-01
In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.
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Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu
2013-04-01
In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.
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Maturilli, Marion; Kayser, Markus
2017-10-01
Radiosonde measurements obtained at the Arctic site Ny-Ålesund (78.9°N, 11.9°E), Svalbard, from 1993 to 2014 have been homogenized accounting for instrumentation discontinuities by correcting known errors in the manufacturer provided profiles. The resulting homogenized radiosonde record is provided as supplementary material at http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.845373. From the homogenized data record, the first Ny-Ålesund upper-air climatology of wind, temperature and humidity is presented, forming the background for the analysis of changes during the 22-year period. Particularly during the winter season, a strong increase in atmospheric temperature and humidity is observed, with a significant warming of the free troposphere in January and February up to 3 K per decade. This winter warming is even more pronounced in the boundary layer below 1 km, presumably amplified by mesoscale processes including e.g. orographic effects or the boundary layer capping inversion. Though the largest contribution to the increasing atmospheric water vapour column in winter originates from the lowermost 2 km, no increase in the contribution by specific humidity inversions is detected. Instead, we find an increase in the humidity content of the large-scale background humidity profiles. At the same time, the tropospheric flow in winter is found to occur less frequent from northerly directions and to the same amount more frequent from the South. We conclude that changes in the atmospheric circulation lead to an enhanced advection of warm and moist air from lower latitudes to the Svalbard region in the winter season, causing the warming and moistening of the atmospheric column above Ny-Ålesund, and link the observations to changes in the Arctic Oscillation.
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Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland
Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.
2017-12-01
Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luis M. Carrascal
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Background. The availability of environmental energy, as measured by temperature, is expected to limit the abundance and distribution of endotherms wintering at temperate latitudes. A prediction of this hypothesis is that birds should attain their highest abundances in warmer areas. However, there may be a spatial mismatch between species preferred habitats and species preferred temperatures, so some species might end-up wintering in sub-optimal thermal environments. Methods. We model the influence of minimum winter temperature on the relative abundance of 106 terrestrial bird species wintering in peninsular Spain, at 10 ×10 km2 resolution, using 95%-quantile regressions. We analyze general trends across species on the shape of the response curves, the environmental preferred temperature (at which the species abundance is maximized, the mean temperature in the area of distribution and the thermal breadth (area under the abundance-temperature curve. Results. Temperature explains a low proportion of variation in abundance. The most significant effect is on limiting the maximum potential abundance of species. Considering this upper-limit response, there is a large interspecific variability on the thermal preferences and specialization of species. Overall, there is a preponderance of positive relationships between species abundance and temperature; on average, species attain their maximum abundances in areas 1.9 °C warmer than the average temperature available in peninsular Spain. The mean temperature in the area of distribution is lower than the thermal preferences of the species. Discussion. Many species prefer the warmest areas to overwinter, which suggests that temperature imposes important restrictions to birds wintering in the Iberian Peninsula. However, one third of species overwinter in locations colder than their thermal preferences, probably reflecting the interaction between habitat and thermal requirements. There is a high inter
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Interhemispheric temperature difference as a predictor of boreal winter ENSO
Piskozub, Jacek; Gutowska, Dorota
2013-04-01
We use statistical analysis to show statistically significant relationship between the boreal winter MEI index of ENSO and HadCRUT3 temperature difference between Northern and Southern hemispheres (NH - SH) during the preceding summer. Correlation values increase (in absolute terms) if the correlated time periods are increased from month to seasonal length. For example December and January (DJ) MEI values anticorrelate stronger with the preceding MJJA period than with any of the four months taken separately. We believe this is further evidence that the correlation is caused by a real physical process as increase of the averaging period tends to reduce statistical noise. The motivation for looking for such a relationship comes from review of literature on paleoclimatic ENSO behavior. We have noticed that in many cases relatively cold NH coincided with "strong ENSO" (frequent El Niños), for example the Ice Age periods and Little Ice Age. On the other hand periods of relatively warm NH (the Holocene climate optimum or Medieval Climate Anomaly) are coincident with frequent or even "permanent" La Niñas. This relationship suggest the influence of the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on the frequency of El Niños. The simplest physical mechanism of the relationship is that the positive (negative) NH-SH temperature difference causes a north (south) shift of ITCZ with a parallel shift of trade wind zones. The North-South orographic difference between the Panama Isthmus and the South America may cause stronger (weaker) trade winds in Eastern Tropical Pacific increasing (decreasing) the thermochemical tilt which, in turn, causes a more negative (positive) ENSO values. Of course this may be only a first approximation of the real mechanism of this "teleconnection". The correlations we have found are not strong even if statistically significant. For example, the MJJA NH-SH temperature vs. DJ MEI correlation has r = -0.28 implying it explains only 8% of boreal
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Chen, Shu-tao; Sang, Lin; Zhang, Xu; Hu, Zheng-hua
2016-02-15
In order to investigate the effects of warming and straw application on soil respiration and enzyme activity, a field experiment was performed from November 2014 to May 2015. Four treatments, which were control (CK), warming, straw application, and warming and straw application, were arranged in field. Seasonal variability in soil respiration, soil temperature and soil moisture for different treatments were measured. Urease, invertase, and catalase activities for different treatments were measured at the elongation, booting, and anthesis stages. The results showed that soil respiration in different treatments had similar seasonal variation patterns. Seasonal mean soil respiration rates for the CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments were 1.46, 1.96, 1.92, and 2.45 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively. ANOVA indicated that both warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration compared to the control treatment. The relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature in different treatments fitted with the exponential regression function. The exponential regression functions explained 34.3%, 28.1%, 24.6%, and 32.0% variations of soil respiration for CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments, respectively. Warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration and urease activity fitted with a linear regression function, with the P value of 0.061. The relationship between soil respiration and invertase (P = 0.013), and between soil respiration and catalase activity (P = 0.002) fitted well with linear regression functions.
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Sawall, Yvonne
2015-03-10
Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.
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Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sö nke; Banguera Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wahl, Martin
2015-01-01
Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.
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How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grzegorz Zięba
Full Text Available Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime.
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Cohen, Jed; Moeltner, Klaus; Reichl, Johannes; Schmidthaler, Michael
2018-01-01
Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between €0.32 and €1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.
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Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera
2010-06-15
A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)
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Ando, Y.; Ogi, M.; Tachibana, Y.
2013-12-01
On Japan, wintertime cold wave has social, economic, psychological and political impacts because of the lack of atomic power stations in the era of post Fukushima world. The colder winter is the more electricity is needed. Wintertime weather of Japan and its prediction has come under the world spotlight. The winter of 2012/13 in Japan was abnormally cold, and such a cold winter has persisted for 3 years. Wintertime climate of Japan is governed by some dominant modes of the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Yasunaka and Hanawa (2008) demonstrated that the two dominant modes - Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) pattern - account for about 65% of the interannual variation of the wintertime mean surface air temperature of Japan. A negative AO brings about cold winter in Japan. In addition, a negative WP also brings about cold winter in Japan. Looking back to the winter of 2012/13, both the negative AO and negative WP continued from October through December. If the previous studies were correct, it would have been extremely very cold from October through December. In fact, in December, in accordance with previous studies, it was colder than normal. Contrary to the expectation, in October and November, it was, however, warmer than normal. This discrepancy signifies that an additional hidden circumstance that heats Japan overwhelms these large-scale atmospheric circulations that cool Japan. In this study, we therefore seek an additional cause of wintertime climate of Japan particularly focusing 2012 as well as the AO and WP. We found that anomalously warm oceanic temperature surrounding Japan overwhelmed influences of the AO or WP. Unlike the inland climate, the island climate can be strongly influenced by surrounding ocean temperature, suggesting that large-scale atmospheric patterns alone do not determine the climate of islands. (a) Time series of a 5-day running mean AO index (blue) as defined by Ogi et al., (2004), who called it the SVNAM index. For
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lou, Sijia [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Russell, Lynn M. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Yang, Yang [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla California USA; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Liu, Ying [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Singh, Balwinder [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ghan, Steven J. [Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA
2017-08-24
We used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leads to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of
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Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W
2014-01-01
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)
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Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.
Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A
2018-05-08
In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.
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Effects of recent warm and cold spells on European plant phenology
Menzel, A.; Estrella, N.; Seifert, H.
2009-04-01
Numerous studies have concurrently documented a progressively earlier start for vegetation activity in spring and a lengthening of the growing season during the last 2 to 5 decades in the temperate northern hemisphere. In contrast to climatic factors influencing autumn phenology, the climate signal controlling spring and summer phenology is fairly well understood: nearly all phenophases correlate with temperatures in the preceding 1 to 3 months. The changes currently experienced by emergence of vegetation may reach 6 to 8 d per °C. But how will this well-known, often linearly described relationship change in case of more frequent and more stronger temperature extremes? We thus studied the temperature response of European phenological records to cold and warm spells using the COST725 data base (www.cost725.org). We restricted our analysis to the time period 1951-2006 due to the relatively better coverage of Europe by phenological records. Up to now, 20 European countries contributed more than 7 Mio. phenological observations to this data base including 64 species and 22 different phases. The phenological observations compiled originated from different sources and phenological networks. Unfortunately there is no entire coverage and the data are very lumped. Cold and warm spells were identified using daily mean temperature data (1951-2006) on a 0.5° grid for Europe provided by the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org, http://eca.knmi.nl). The study area covered Europe and was limited to 40°E. For the whole study period, mean monthly and seasonal mean temperatures well as the corresponding standard deviations were calculated for each grid point. The annual monthly or seasonal temperature at a grid point was defined as cold (very cold, warm, very warm) by its deviation from the long-term average (more than 1.5 or 3sd, respectively). Warm and cold spells were selected when either the percentages of crossing 1.5sd were greater than 50% for the total
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Short-term cropland responses to temperature extreme events during late winter
De Simon, G.; Alberti, G.; Delle Vedove, G.; Peressotti, A.; Zaldei, A.; Miglietta, F.
2013-08-01
In recent years, several studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystem response to extreme events. Most of this research has been conducted in natural ecosystems, but few have considered agroecosystems. In this study, we investigated the impact of a manipulated warmer or cooler late winter/early spring on the carbon budget and final harvest of a soybean crop (Glycine max (L.) Merr.). Soil temperature was altered by manipulating soil albedo by covering the soil surface with a layer of inert silica gravel. We tested three treatments - cooling (Co), warming (W), mix (M) - and control (C). An automated system continuously measured soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil temperature profiles, and soil water content across the entire year in each plot. Phenological phases were periodically assessed and final harvest was measured in each plot. Results showed that treatments had only a transient effect on daily Rh rates, which did not result in a total annual carbon budget significantly different from control, even though cooling showed a significant reduction in final harvest. We also observed anticipation in emergence in both W and M treatments and a delay in emergence for Co. Moreover, plant density and growth increased in W and M and decreased in Co. In conclusion, from the results of our experiment we can assert that an increase in the frequency of both heat and cold waves is unlikely to have large effects on the overall annual carbon balance of irrigated croplands.
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Severe European winters in a secular perspective
Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie
2017-04-01
Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. I. Shapiro
2011-09-01
Full Text Available Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May–November.The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.
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Diurnal Freeze-Thaw Cycles Modify Winter Soil Respiration in a Desert Shrub-Land Ecosystem
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng Liu
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Winter soil respiration (Rs is becoming a significant component of annual carbon budgets with more warming in winter than summer. However, little is known about the controlling mechanisms of winter Rs in dryland. We made continuous measurements of Rs in four microsites (non-crust (BS, lichen (LC, moss (MC, and a mixture of moss and lichen (ML in a desert shrub-land ecosystem northern China, to investigate the causes of Rs dynamics in winter. The mean winter Rs ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 µmol CO2 m−2·s−1 across microsites, with the highest value in BS. Winter Q10 (known as the increase in respiration rate per 10 °C increase in temperature values (2.8–19 were much higher than those from the growing season (1.5. Rs and Q10 were greatly enhanced in freeze-thaw cycles compared to frozen days. Diurnal patterns of Rs between freeze-thaw and frozen days differed. Although the freeze-thaw period was relatively short, its cumulative Rs contributed significantly to winter Rs. The presence of biocrust might induce lower temperature, thus having fewer freeze-thaw cycles relative to bare soil, leading to the lower Rs for microsites with biocrusts. In conclusion, winter Rs in drylands was sensitive to soil temperature (Ts and Ts-induced freeze-thaw cycles. The temperature impact on Rs varied among soil cover types. Winter Rs in drylands may become more important as the climate is continuously getting warmer.
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Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters
McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.
2010-01-01
A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P
2016-01-01
Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural soils play an important role in the global greenhouse gas budget. However, the response of N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilized agricultural soils to climate warming is not yet well understood. A field experiment with simulated warming (T) using...... infrared heaters and its control (C) combined with a nitrogen (N1) fertilization treatment (315 kg N ha−1 y−1) and no nitrogen treatment (N0) was conducted over five years at an agricultural research station in the North China Plain in a winter wheat–soybean double cropping system. N2O fluxes were measured...
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Sulphate and desertification signals in Middle Eastern temperature trends
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nasrallah, H.A.; Balling, R.C. Jr.
1994-01-01
Analysis of Middle Eastern annual temperature anomalies over the past 40 years reveals statistically significant warming over this time period of 0.07 C per decade. The warming is most pronounced over the spring season and least apparent in the winter season. Spatial analysis reveals a positive relationship between Middle Eastern warming and the degree of human-induced desertification and a negative relationship between local warming and the atmospheric concentration of sulphate
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Wang, Hua; Chen, Hui Hua; Tang, Li Sheng; Wang, Juan Huai; Tang, Hai Yan
2018-01-01
Trend analysis method was applied to analyze the general variation characteristics of the climate resources and meteorological disasters of growing season of the winter planting in Guangdong before (1961-1996) and after climate warming (1997-2015). Percentile method was employed to determine thresholds for extreme cold and drought in major planting regions, and the characteristics of extreme disasters since climate warming were analyzed. The results showed that, by comparing 1997-2015 with 1961-1996, the heat value in winter growing season increased significantly. The belt with a higher heat value, where the average temperature was ≥15 ℃ and accumulated temperature was ≥2200 ℃·d, covered the main winter production regions as Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Meizhou and Guangzhou. Meanwhile, the precipitation witnessed a slight increase. The regions with precipitations of 250-350 mm included Zhanjiang, Maoming, Huizhou, Guangzhou and Meizhou. Chilling injury in the winter planting season in the regions decreased, the belt with an accumulated chilling of climate resources and the occurrence law of meteorological disasters in growing season.
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Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio
2017-08-01
The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.
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Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.
Crabbe, M James C
2008-10-01
Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.
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Berglund, Eva; Rousk, Johannes
2017-04-01
experiments including temperatures from 0 to 35˚ C. Temperature relationships were modelled using the Ratkowsky model, and cardinal points including minimum temperature (Tmin) for growth and respiration along with temperature sensitivity (Q10) values were used as indices to compare sites. Microbial communities were cold-adapted in cold sites and warm-adapted in warm sites, as shown by Tmin values ranging from ca. -20 ˚ C to 0 ˚ C. For every 1˚ C rise in MAT, Tmin increased by 0.22˚ C and 0.28˚ C for bacteria and fungi, respectively. Soil respiration was less dependent on MAT, increasing 0.16 ˚ C per 1˚ C. Temperature dependence analyses grew stronger when regressed against summer temperatures, and weaker when regressed against winter temperatures. Hence, microbial communities adjusted their temperature dependence for growth more than for respiration, and higher temperatures had more impact than low temperatures did. The correlation between Tmin and MAT resulted in Q10s increasing with MAT, showing that microorganisms from cold regions were less temperature sensitive than those from warmer regions. For every 1˚ C increase in MAT, Q10 increased with 0.04 and 0.03 units for bacterial and fungal growth respectively, and 0.08 units for soil respiration. In contrast to previous studies, we found no relationship between temperature sensitivity and substrate quality. We demonstrate that the strongest driver of variation in microbial temperatures sensitivities (Q10s) is the microbial adaptation to its thermal environment. Surprisingly, the quality of SOM had no influence on the temperature sensitivity. This calls for a revision of the understanding for how microbial decomposers feed-back to climate warming. Specifically, the thermal adaptation of microbial communities need to be incorporated into climate models to capture responses to warming, while the quality of SOM can be ignored.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhaochen Liu
2017-11-01
Full Text Available The Tibetan Plateau (TP, which is well known as “The Third Pole”, is of great importance to climate change in East Asia, and even the whole world. In this paper, we selected the monthly temperature (including the monthly mean and the maximum and minimum temperature during 1971–2015 from 88 meteorological stations on the TP. The data were tested and corrected by using Penalized Maximal F Test (PMFT based on RHtest. Afterwards, based on the Mann-Kendall test, we analyzed the seasonal and time-interval characteristics on each station in detail. The results show that the TP has experienced significant warming during 1971–2015. When comparing the selected elements, the warming rate of minimum temperature (Tmin is the largest, the mean temperature (Tmean comes second, and the maximum temperature (Tmax is the smallest. The warming trends in four seasons are significant, and the highest warming rate occurs in winter. The warming trend on the TP has a prominent spatial difference, with a large warming rate on the eastern parts and a small one on the central regions. In different seasons, the warming trends on the TP have different characteristics in the time interval. Since 1998, the warming rate in spring increased markedly, spring has displaced winter as the season with the highest warming rate recently.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sappal, Ravinder; Fast, Mark; Stevens, Don; Kibenge, Fred; Siah, Ahmed; Kamunde, Collins
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Warm acclimation reduced the electron transport system (ETS) efficiency. • Warm acclimation altered the effects of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu on ETS. • Warm acclimation increased thermal sensitivity of state 3 and reduced that of state 4. • Cu stimulated while hypoxia inhibited ETS respiratory activity. • Interactions of Cu and hypoxia on the ETS and plasma metabolites were antagonistic. - Abstract: Temperature fluctuations, hypoxia and metals pollution frequently occur simultaneously or sequentially in aquatic systems and their interactions may confound interpretation of their biological impacts. With a focus on energy homeostasis, the present study examined how warm acclimation influences the responses and interactions of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and copper (Cu) exposure in fish. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were acclimated to cold (11 °C; control) and warm (20 °C) temperature for 3 weeks followed by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of Cu and hypoxia for 24 h. Subsequently, mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS) respiratory activity supported by complexes I–IV (CI–IV), plasma metabolites and condition indices were measured. Warm acclimation reduced fish condition, induced aerobic metabolism and altered the responses of fish to acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu. Whereas warm acclimation decelerated the ETS and increased the sensitivity of maximal oxidation rates of the proximal (CI and II) complexes to acute temperature shift, it reduced the thermal sensitivity of state 4 (proton leak). Effects of Cu with and without hypoxia were variable depending on the acclimation status and functional index. Notably, Cu stimulated respiratory activity in the proximal ETS segments, while hypoxia was mostly inhibitory and minimized the stimulatory effect of Cu. The effects of Cu and hypoxia were modified by temperature and showed reciprocal antagonistic interaction on the ETS and plasma
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sappal, Ravinder [Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Department of Biomedical Sciences, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Fast, Mark [Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Stevens, Don [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Kibenge, Fred [Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Siah, Ahmed [British Columbia Centre for Aquatic Health Sciences, 871A Island Highway, Campbell River, British Columbia V9W 2C2 (Canada); Kamunde, Collins, E-mail: ckamunde@upei.ca [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada)
2015-12-15
Highlights: • Warm acclimation reduced the electron transport system (ETS) efficiency. • Warm acclimation altered the effects of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu on ETS. • Warm acclimation increased thermal sensitivity of state 3 and reduced that of state 4. • Cu stimulated while hypoxia inhibited ETS respiratory activity. • Interactions of Cu and hypoxia on the ETS and plasma metabolites were antagonistic. - Abstract: Temperature fluctuations, hypoxia and metals pollution frequently occur simultaneously or sequentially in aquatic systems and their interactions may confound interpretation of their biological impacts. With a focus on energy homeostasis, the present study examined how warm acclimation influences the responses and interactions of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and copper (Cu) exposure in fish. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were acclimated to cold (11 °C; control) and warm (20 °C) temperature for 3 weeks followed by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of Cu and hypoxia for 24 h. Subsequently, mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS) respiratory activity supported by complexes I–IV (CI–IV), plasma metabolites and condition indices were measured. Warm acclimation reduced fish condition, induced aerobic metabolism and altered the responses of fish to acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu. Whereas warm acclimation decelerated the ETS and increased the sensitivity of maximal oxidation rates of the proximal (CI and II) complexes to acute temperature shift, it reduced the thermal sensitivity of state 4 (proton leak). Effects of Cu with and without hypoxia were variable depending on the acclimation status and functional index. Notably, Cu stimulated respiratory activity in the proximal ETS segments, while hypoxia was mostly inhibitory and minimized the stimulatory effect of Cu. The effects of Cu and hypoxia were modified by temperature and showed reciprocal antagonistic interaction on the ETS and plasma
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Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae.
Mu, Junpeng; Peng, Youhong; Xi, Xinqiang; Wu, Xinwei; Li, Guoyong; Niklas, Karl J; Sun, Shucun
2015-11-01
Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows. A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology. Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area. The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant-pollinator interactions and plant
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The European climate under a 2 °C global warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela
2014-01-01
A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)
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Klotz, Stefan; Fauquette, Séverine; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Uhl, Dieter; Suc, Jean-Pierre; Mosbrugger, Volker
2006-01-01
A mutual climatic range method is applied to the Mediterranean marine pollen record of Semaforo (Vrica section, Calabria, Italy) covering the period from ∼2.46 Ma to ∼2.11 Ma. The method yields detailed information on summer, annual and winter temperatures and on precipitation during the nine obliquity and precession-controlled 'glacial' periods (marine isotope stages 96 to 80) and eight 'interglacial' periods (marine isotope stages 95 to 81) characterising this time interval. The reconstruction reveals higher temperatures of at least 2.8 °C in mean annual and 2.2 °C in winter temperatures, and 500 mm in precipitation during the 'interglacials' as compared to the present-day climate in the study area. During the 'glacials', temperatures are generally lower as compared to the present-day climate in the region, but precipitation is equivalent. Along the consecutive 'interglacials', a trend toward a reduction in annual and winter temperatures by more than 2.3 °C, and toward a higher seasonality is observed. Along the consecutive 'glacials', a trend toward a strong reduction in all temperature parameters of at least 1.6 °C is reconstructed. Climatic amplitudes of 'interglacial-glacial' transitions increase from the older to the younger cycles for summer and annual temperatures. The cross-spectral analyses suggest obliquity related warm/humid-cold/dry 'interglacial-glacial' cycles which are superimposed by precession related warm/dry- cold/humid cycles. A time displacement in the development of temperatures and precipitation is indicated for the obliquity band by temperatures generally leading precipitation change at ∼4 kyr, and on the precession band of ∼9.6 kyr in maximum.
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Metz, Patricia A.
2016-09-27
Warm Mineral Springs, located in southern Sarasota County, Florida, is a warm, highly mineralized, inland spring. Since 1946, a bathing spa has been in operation at the spring, attracting vacationers and health enthusiasts. During the winter months, the warm water attracts manatees to the adjoining spring run and provides vital habitat for these mammals. Well-preserved late Pleistocene to early Holocene-age human and animal bones, artifacts, and plant remains have been found in and around the spring, and indicate the surrounding sinkhole formed more than 12,000 years ago. The spring is a multiuse resource of hydrologic importance, ecological and archeological significance, and economic value to the community.The pool of Warm Mineral Springs has a circular shape that reflects its origin as a sinkhole. The pool measures about 240 feet in diameter at the surface and has a maximum depth of about 205 feet. The sinkhole developed in the sand, clay, and dolostone of the Arcadia Formation of the Miocene-age to Oligocene-age Hawthorn Group. Underlying the Hawthorn Group are Oligocene-age to Eocene-age limestones and dolostones, including the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. Mineralized groundwater, under artesian pressure in the underlying aquifers, fills the remnant sink, and the overflow discharges into Warm Mineral Springs Creek, to Salt Creek, and subsequently into the Myakka River. Aquifers described in the vicinity of Warm Mineral Springs include the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system within the Hawthorn Group, and the Upper Floridan aquifer in the Suwannee Limestone, Ocala Limestone, and Avon Park Formation. The Hawthorn Group acts as an upper confining unit of the Upper Floridan aquifer.Groundwater flow paths are inferred from the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer for September 2010. Groundwater flow models indicate the downward flow of water into the Upper Floridan aquifer
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EXTREME MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM AIR TEMPERATURE IN MEDİTERRANEAN COASTS IN TURKEY
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Barbaros Gönençgil
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In this study, we determined extreme maximum and minimum temperatures in both summer and winter seasons at the stations in the Mediterranean coastal areas of Turkey.In the study, the data of 24 meteorological stations for the daily maximum and minimumtemperatures of the period from 1970–2010 were used. From this database, a set of four extreme temperature indices applied warm (TX90 and cold (TN10 days and warm spells (WSDI and cold spell duration (CSDI. The threshold values were calculated for each station to determine the temperatures that were above and below the seasonal norms in winter and summer. The TX90 index displays a positive statistically significant trend, while TN10 display negative nonsignificant trend. The occurrence of warm spells shows statistically significant increasing trend while the cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend over the Mediterranean coastline in Turkey.
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He, Yunling; Wu, Zhijie; Liu, Xuelian; Deng, Fuying
2018-01-01
With the surface air temperature (SAT) data at 37 stations on Central Yunnan Plateau (CYP) for 1961-2010 and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light data, the temporal-spatial patterns of the SAT trends are detected using Sen's Nonparametric Estimator of Slope approach and MK test, and the impact of urbanization on surface warming is analyzed by comparing the differences between the air temperature change trends of urban stations and their corresponding rural stations. Results indicated that annual mean air temperature showed a significant warming trend, which is equivalent to a rate of 0.17 °C/decade during the past 50 years. Seasonal mean air temperature presents a rising trend, and the trend was more significant in winter (0.31 °C/decade) than in other seasons. Annual/seasonal mean air temperature tends to increase in most areas, and higher warming trend appeared in urban areas, notably in Kunming city. The regional mean air temperature series was significantly impacted by urban warming, and the urbanization-induced warming contributed to approximately 32.3-62.9 % of the total regional warming during the past 50 years. Meantime, the urbanization-induced warming trend in winter and spring was more significant than that in summer and autumn. Since 1985, the urban heat island (UHI) intensity has gradually increased. And the urban temperatures always rise faster than rural temperatures on the CYP.
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Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world
Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.
2015-12-01
Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.
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European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns
Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.
2018-01-01
Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C. Dumousseaud
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Future climate change as a result of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is expected to strongly affect the oceans, with shallower winter mixing and consequent reduction in primary production and oceanic carbon drawdown in low and mid-latitudinal oceanic regions. Here we test this hypothesis by examining the effects of cold and warm winters on the carbonate system in the surface waters of the Northeast Atlantic Ocean for the period between 2005 and 2007. Monthly observations were made between the English Channel and the Bay of Biscay using a ship of opportunity program. During the colder winter of 2005/2006, the maximum depth of the mixed layer reached up to 650 m in the Bay of Biscay, whilst during the warmer (by 2.6 ± 0.5 °C winter of 2006/2007 the mixed layer depth reached only 300 m. The inter-annual differences in late winter concentrations of nitrate (2.8 ± 1.1 μmol l−1 and dissolved inorganic carbon (22 ± 6 μmol kg−1, with higher concentrations at the end of the colder winter (2005/2006, led to differences in the dissolved oxygen anomaly and the chlorophyll α-fluorescence data for the subsequent growing season. In contrast to model predictions, the calculated air-sea CO2 fluxes (ranging from +3.7 to −4.8 mmol m−2 d−1 showed an increased oceanic CO2 uptake in the Bay of Biscay following the warmer winter of 2006/2007 associated with wind speed and sea surface temperature differences.
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Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms
Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.
2017-12-01
The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.
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Coupling in the middle atmosphere related to the 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. J. de Wit
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The previously reported observation of anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing at mesopause heights around the onset of the January 2013 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW over Trondheim, Norway (63° N, 10° E, is placed in a global perspective using Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS temperature observations from the Aura satellite. It is shown that this anomalous forcing results in a clear cooling over Trondheim about 10 km below mesopause heights. Conversely, near the mesopause itself, where the gravity wave forcing was measured, observations with meteor radar, OH airglow and MLS show no distinct cooling. Polar cap zonal mean temperatures show a similar vertical profile. Longitudinal variability in the high northern-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT is characterized by a quasi-stationary wave-1 structure, which reverses phase at altitudes below ~ 0.1 hPa. This wave-1 develops prior to the SSW onset, and starts to propagate westward at the SSW onset. The latitudinal pole-to-pole temperature structure associated with the major SSW shows a warming (cooling in the winter stratosphere (mesosphere which extends to about 40° N. In the stratosphere, a cooling extending over the equator and far into the summer hemisphere is observed, whereas in the mesosphere an equatorial warming is noted. In the Southern Hemisphere mesosphere, a warm anomaly overlaying a cold anomaly is present, which is shown to propagate downward in time. This observed structure is in accordance with the temperature perturbations predicted by the proposed interhemispheric coupling mechanism for cases of increased winter stratospheric planetary wave activity, of which major SSWs are an extreme case. These results provide observational evidence for the interhemispheric coupling mechanism, and for the wave-mean flow interaction believed to be responsible for the establishment of the anomalies in the summer hemisphere.
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Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Xiangdong; Lu Chuhan; Guan Zhaoyong
2012-01-01
Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems. (letter)
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CMIP5 based downscaled temperature over Western Himalayan region
Dutta, M.; Das, L.; Meher, J. K.
2016-12-01
Limited numbers of reliable temperature data is available for assessing warming over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India. India meteorological Department provided many stations having more than 30% missing values. Stations having values, were replaced using the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 16 stations having continuous records during 1969-2009 were considered as the "reference stations" for assessing the trends in addition to evaluate the Coupled Model Intercomparison, phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Model(GCMs). Station data indicates higher and rapid (1.41oC) winter warming than the other seasons and least warming was observed in the post monsoon (0.31oC) season. Mean annual warming is 0.84 oC during 1969-2009 indicating the warming over the WHR is more than double the global warming (0.85oC during 1880-2012). The performance of 34 CMIP5 models was evaluated through three different approaches namely comparison of: i) mean seasonal cycle ii) temporal trends and iii) spatial correlation and a rank was assigned to each GCM. How the better performing GCMs able to reproduce the observed spatial details were verified the ERA-interim reanalysis data. Finally station level future downscaled winter temperature has constructed using Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD) technique where 2 meter air temperature (T2m) is considered as predictor and station temperature as predictant. Future range of downscaled temperature change for the stations Dheradun, Manali and Gulmarg are 1.3-6.1OC, 1.1-5.8OC and 0.5-5.8OC respectively at the end of 21st century.
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Unusually Warm Spring Temperatures Magnify Annual CH4 Losses From Arctic Ecosystems
Goodrich, J. P.; Oechel, W. C.; Gioli, B.; Murphy, P.; Zona, D.
2015-12-01
The relatively fast pace of Northern high latitude warming puts the very large permafrost soil C pool at a higher risk of being lost to the atmosphere as CH4. Estimates for the Arctic tundra's contribution to the global wetland CH4 emissions range from 15-27 TgCH4 y-1 (8-14% of total). However, these estimates are largely based on data from the growing season, or from boreal systems underlain by discontinuous permafrost with different physical, hydrological, and biogeochemical dynamics than continuous permafrost zones. Recent data from a transect of eddy covariance flux towers across the North Slope of Alaska revealed the importance of cold season emissions to the annual CH4 budget, which may not correlate with summer flux patterns. However, understanding of the controls and inter-annual variability in fluxes at these different sites is lacking. Here, we present data from ~3 years at 5 tundra ecosystems along this Arctic transect to show the influence of earlier and deeper spring active layer thaw on timing and magnitude of CH4 fluxes. This year's warm spring led to significantly greater thaw depths and lower water tables than the previous year. Substantial CH4 emissions in 2015 were recorded at the wettest sites >20 days earlier than in the more meteorologically normal previous year. Since the soil remained saturated despite a lowered water table, total spring CH4 emissions more than doubled at these wet sites. At the drier sites, soil moisture declined with water table during the warmer spring, resulting in similar emissions to the previous year. However, deeper thaw depths prolonged fall and early winter emissions during the 'zero-curtain' soil temperature freezing phase, particularly at the drier site. In general, warmer spring temperatures in the Arctic may result in large increases in early season CH4 losses at wet sites and prolonged steady losses at the upland sites, enhancing the feedback between changing climate and tundra CH4 emissions at all sites.
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Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.
Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping
2013-09-19
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Y. Jia
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Spatial and temporal variabilities of Kelvin waves during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW events are investigated by the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and the results are validated by the COSMIC temperature data. A case study on an exceptionally large SSW event in 2009, and a composite analysis comprising 18 events from 1980 to 2013 are presented. During SSW events, the average temperature increases by 20 K in the polar stratosphere, while the temperature in the tropical stratosphere decreases by about 4 K. Kelvin wave with wave numbers 1 and 2, and periods 10–20 days, clearly appear around the tropical tropopause layer (TTL during SSWs. The Kelvin wave activity shows obvious coupling with the convection localized in the India Ocean and western Pacific (Indo-Pacific region. Detailed analysis suggests that the enhanced meridional circulation driven by the extratropical planetary wave forcing during SSW events leads to tropical upwelling, which further produces temperature decrease in the tropical stratosphere. The tropical upwelling and cooling consequently result in enhancement of convection in the equatorial region, which excites the strong Kelvin wave activity. In addition, we investigated the Kelvin wave acceleration to the eastward zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial stratosphere during SSW events. The composite analysis shows that the proportion of Kelvin wave contribution ranges from 5 to 35 % during SSWs, much larger than in the non-SSW mid-winters (less than 5 % in the stratosphere. However, the Kelvin wave alone is insufficient to drive the equatorial eastward zonal wind anomalies during the SSW events, which suggests that the effects of other types of equatorial waves may not be neglected.
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Running Club Warm Up Staves Off Winter's Chill
2001-01-01
Not deterred by winter's chill, over 900 runners met at the CERN Prévesin site for Escalade training. Think the sudden cold snap is a reason to stay indoors? Think again! The CERN running club has just recently had the honour of holding the November 11th Escalade training session, and with over 900 runners present at the Prévessin site it was clear that the chilly temperatures were no barrier whatsoever. The story behind Escalade training starts back in 1977 when a group of running enthusiasts from the Stade Genève club decided to organize a running race in the Old Town in conjunction with the Escalade festivities. They were told that no normal people would think of organizing a running race in the month of December, but fortunately they ignored the advice! From the initial 50 or so runners, these Escalade races have grown into an institution and now attract upwards of 15,000 people of all ages from 5 to over 80 each year. And with over 30% of each year's runners participat...
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Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.
McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin
2018-03-13
Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.
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Soil Temperature Manipulation to Study Global Warming Effects in Arable Land
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Patil, R H; Laegdsmand, M; Olesen, Jørgen E
2013-01-01
in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control......-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....
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Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Patil, Raveendra H.; Laegdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind
2013-01-01
in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005 oC between heated...... that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....
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Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.
Bintanja, R; Krikken, F
2016-12-02
Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.
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Heide, O M
2003-09-01
The effect of temperature during short-day (SD) dormancy induction was examined in three boreal tree species in a controlled environment. Saplings of Betula pendula Roth, B. pubescens Ehrh. and Alnus glutinosa (L.) Moench. were exposed to 5 weeks of 10-h SD induction at 9, 15 and 21 degrees C followed by chilling at 5 degrees C for 40, 70, 100 and 130 days and subsequent forcing at 15 degrees C in a 24-h photoperiod for 60 days. In all species and with all chilling periods, high temperature during SD dormancy induction significantly delayed bud burst during subsequent flushing at 15 degrees C. In A. glutinosa, high temperature during SD dormancy induction also significantly increased the chilling requirement for dormancy release. Field experiments at 60 degrees N with a range of latitudinal birch populations revealed a highly significant correlation between autumn temperature and days to bud burst in the subsequent spring. September temperature alone explained 20% of the variation between years in time of bud burst. In birch populations from 69 and 71 degrees N, which ceased growing and shed their leaves in August when the mean temperature was 15 degrees C, bud burst occurred later than expected compared with lower latitude populations (56 degrees N) in which dormancy induction took place more than 2 months later at a mean temperature of about 6 degrees C. It is concluded that this autumn temperature response may be important for counterbalancing the potentially adverse effects of higher winter temperatures on dormancy stability of boreal trees during climate warming.
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Zheng, Caidan; Wu, Peihao; Costanzo, Vincenzo; Wang, Yuchen; Yang, Xiaokun
2017-01-01
In this paper, solar heat gain through glass daylighting roof is deeply studied by theoretical calculation method, taking Guangzhou in the Hot Summer and Warm Winter (HSWW) zone as an example. The direct solar radiation is calculated by Bouguer formula whereas the diffuse solar radiation is calculated by Berlage formula, representing the basis for the calculation method of the solar radiation intensity through the glass daylighting roof. Through the establishment of solar radiation calculatio...
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Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.
2016-01-01
Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,
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Relative effects of precipitation variability and warming on tallgrass prairie ecosystem function
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. A. Fay
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Precipitation and temperature drive many aspects of terrestrial ecosystem function. Climate change scenarios predict increasing precipitation variability and temperature, and long term experiments are required to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of interannual climate variation, increased growing season (intra-annual rainfall variability, and warming. We present results from an experiment applying increased growing season rainfall variability and year round warming in native tallgrass prairie. During ten years of study, total growing season rainfall varied 2-fold, and we found ~50–200% interannual variability in plant growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP, leaf carbon assimilation (ACO2, and soil CO2 efflux (JCO2 despite only ~40% variation in mean volumetric soil water content (0–15 cm, Θ15. Interannual variation in soil moisture was thus amplified in most measures of ecosystem response. Differences between years in Θ15 explained the greatest portion (14–52% of the variation in these processes. Experimentally increased intra-annual season rainfall variability doubled the amplitude of intra-annual soil moisture variation and reduced Θ15 by 15%, causing most ecosystem processes to decrease 8–40% in some or all years with increased rainfall variability compared to ambient rainfall timing, suggesting reduced ecosystem rainfall use efficiency. Warming treatments increased soil temperature at 5 cm depth, particularly during spring, fall, and winter. Warming advanced canopy green up in spring, increased winter JCO2, and reduced summer JCO2 and forb ANPP, suggesting that the effects of warming differed in cooler versus warmer parts of the year. We conclude that (1 major ecosystem processes in this grassland may be substantially altered by predicted changes in
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Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aldo Compagnoni
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.
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Recent increased warming of the Alaskan marine Arctic due to midlatitude linkages
Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Ballinger, Thomas J.
2018-01-01
Alaskan Arctic waters have participated in hemispheric-wide Arctic warming over the last two decades at over two times the rate of global warming. During 2008-13, this relative warming occurred only north of the Bering Strait and the atmospheric Arctic front that forms a north-south thermal barrier. This front separates the southeastern Bering Sea temperatures from Arctic air masses. Model projections show that future temperatures in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas continue to warm at a rate greater than the global rate, reaching a change of +4°C by 2040 relative to the 1981-2010 mean. Offshore at 74°N, climate models project the open water duration season to increase from a current average of three months to five months by 2040. These rates are occasionally enhanced by midlatitude connections. Beginning in August 2014, additional Arctic warming was initiated due to increased SST anomalies in the North Pacific and associated shifts to southerly winds over Alaska, especially in winter 2015-16. While global warming and equatorial teleconnections are implicated in North Pacific SSTs, the ending of the 2014-16 North Pacific warm event demonstrates the importance of internal, chaotic atmospheric natural variability on weather conditions in any given year. Impacts from global warming on Alaskan Arctic temperature increases and sea-ice and snow loss, with occasional North Pacific support, are projected to continue to propagate through the marine ecosystem in the foreseeable future. The ecological and societal consequences of such changes show a radical departure from the current Arctic environment.
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The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed
2013-01-01
Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leyre Corcuera
Full Text Available As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait. genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT₅₀, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site.P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (F(v/F(m, quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (Φ(PSII and photochemical quenching (qP. The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family. LT₅₀ was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted F(v/F(m ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations.In conclusion, variations in F(v/F(m, Φ(PSII, qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT₅₀ than coastal populations that typically experience mild
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Corcuera, Leyre; Gil-Pelegrin, Eustaquio; Notivol, Eduardo
2011-01-01
As part of a program to select maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) genotypes for resistance to low winter temperatures, we examined variation in photosystem II activity by chlorophyll fluorescence. Populations and families within populations from contrasting climates were tested during two consecutive winters through two progeny trials, one located at a continental and xeric site and one at a mesic site with Atlantic influence. We also obtained the LT₅₀, or the temperature that causes 50% damage, by controlled freezing and the subsequent analysis of chlorophyll fluorescence in needles and stems that were collected from populations at the continental trial site.P. pinaster showed sensitivity to winter stress at the continental site, during the colder winter. The combination of low temperatures, high solar irradiation and low precipitation caused sustained decreases in maximal photochemical efficiency (F(v)/F(m)), quantum yield of non-cyclic electron transport (Φ(PSII)) and photochemical quenching (qP). The variation in photochemical parameters was larger among families than among populations, and population differences appeared only under the harshest conditions at the continental site. As expected, the environmental effects (winter and site) on the photochemical parameters were much larger than the genotypic effects (population or family). LT₅₀ was closely related to the minimum winter temperatures of the population's range. The dark-adapted F(v)/F(m) ratio discriminated clearly between interior and coastal populations.In conclusion, variations in F(v)/F(m), Φ(PSII), qP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) in response to winter stress were primarily due to the differences between the winter conditions and the sites and secondarily due to the differences among families and their interactions with the environment. Populations from continental climates showed higher frost tolerance (LT₅₀) than coastal populations that typically experience mild winters
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Tensile deformation behavior of AA5083-H111 at cold and warm temperatures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ozturk, Fahrettin; Toros, Serkan; Kilic, Suleyman [Nidge Univ. (Turkey). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering
2010-09-15
The effects of strain rate and temperature on the deformation behavior of hardened 5083-H111 aluminum magnesium alloy sheet were investigated by performing uniaxial tensile tests at various strain rates from 0.0083 to 0.16 s{sup -1} and temperatures from -100 to 300 C. Results from the prescribed test ranges indicate that the formability of this material at cold and warm temperatures is better than at room temperature. The improvement in formability at cold temperatures is principally due to the strain hardening of the material. However, the improvement at warm temperature and low strain rate is specifically due to the high strain rate sensitivity characteristic of the material. Results indicate that this alloy should be formed at temperatures higher than 200 C and at low strain rates. (orig.)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rangwala, Imtiaz; Sinsky, Eric; Miller, James R
2013-01-01
We use output from global climate models available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios to investigate whether the projected warming in mountains by the end of the 21st century is significantly different from that in low elevation regions. To remove the effects of latitudinal variation in warming rates, we focus on seasonal changes in the mid-latitude band of the northern hemisphere between 27.5° N and 40° N, where the two major mountain systems are the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas in Asia and the Rocky Mountains in the United States. Results from the multi-model ensemble indicate that warming rates in mountains will be enhanced relative to non-mountain regions at the same latitude, particularly during the cold season. The strongest correlations of enhanced warming with elevation are obtained for the daily minimum temperature during winter, with the largest increases found for the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. The model projections indicate that this occurs, in part, because of proportionally greater increases in downward longwave radiation at higher elevations in response to increases in water vapor. The mechanisms for enhanced increases in winter and spring maximum temperatures in the Rockies appear to be influenced more by increases in surface absorption of solar radiation owing to a reduced snow cover. Furthermore, the amplification of warming with elevation is greater for a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario. (letter)
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Brodin, Anders; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nord, Andreas
2017-09-01
Several species of small birds are resident in boreal forests where environmental temperatures can be -20 to -30 °C, or even lower, in winter. As winter days are short, and food is scarce, winter survival is a challenge for small endothermic animals. A bird of this size will have to gain almost 10% of its lean body mass in fat every day to sustain overnight metabolism. Birds such as parids (titmice and chickadees) can use facultative hypothermia, a process in which body temperature is actively down-regulated to a specific level, to reduce heat loss and thus save energy. During cold winter nights, these birds may decrease body temperature from the normal from 42 ° down to 35 °C, or even lower in some species. However, birds are unable to move in this deep hypothermic state, making it a risky strategy if predators are around. Why, then, do small northern birds enter a potentially dangerous physiological state for a relatively small reduction in energy expenditure? We used stochastic dynamic programming to investigate this. Our model suggests that the use of nocturnal hypothermia at night is paramount in these biomes, as it would increase winter survival for a small northern bird by 58% over a winter of 100 days. Our model also explains the phenomenon known as winter fattening, and its relationship to thermoregulation, in northern birds.
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Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest, Germany — winter season
Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas
2011-05-01
Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021-2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, Liting; Hu, Chunsheng; Olesen, Jørgen E
2013-01-01
per m2. This suggests that the wheat yield loss may be related to reduction of spike number, which was affected by decreased soil water content under warming. Warming tended to give larger yield reductions at higher nitrogen fertilizer rates, and this may be related to larger water consumption...... with both higher nitrogen and temperature leading to water shortages. These effects indicate that wheat yield loss from warming was primarily associated with more severe water shortage from greater evapotranspiration under warming. The large crop canopy in the fertilized plot may further have enhanced......). The volumetric water content decreased significantly before heading by 9.3, 3.9, 2.4 and 1.2 vol% in the soil depth of 0.10, 0.20, 0.40, 0.60 m in N2 and by 5.9, 1.4, 1.3 and 1.2 vol% in N1 from heating compared with no heating. The duration of the entire growth period was shortened by on average 7 days...
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Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khanh Dung T Nguyen
Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.
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Perspectives in Winter Limnology: Closing the annual cycle of freezing lakes
Salonen, K.; Leppäranta, M.; Viljanen, M.; Gulati, R.D.
2009-01-01
Winter has traditionally been considered as an ecologically insignificant season and, together with technical difficulties, this has led winter limnology to lag behind summer limnology. Recently, rapidly expanding interest in climate warming has increased water research in winter. It has also become
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East Asian winter temperature variation associated with the combined effects of AO and WP pattern
Park, Hye-Jin; Ahn, Joong-Bae
2016-04-01
The combined effects of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the last 56 years (1958/59-2013/2014) were investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (Park and Ahn, 2015). The study results revealed that the effect of the AO on winter temperature in East Asia could be changed depending on the phases of the WP pattern in the North Pacific. The negative relationship between the EAWM and the AO increased when the AO and WP were in-phase with each other. Hence, when winter negative (positive) AO was accompanied by negative (positive) WP, negative (positive) temperature anomalies were dominant across the entire East Asia region. Conversely, when the AO and WP were of-of-phase, the winter temperature anomaly in East Asia did not show distinct changes. Furthermore, from the perspective of stationary planetary waves, the zonal wavenumber-2 patterns of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa circulation strengthened when the AO and WP were in-phase but were not significant for the out-of-phase condition. It explained the possible mechanism of the combined effects of the AO and WP on the circulation related to EAWM. Reference Park, H.-J., and J.-B. Ahn (2015) Combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation and the Western Pacific pattern on East Asia winter temperature, Clim. Dyn. DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2763-2. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA2015-2081.
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Water temperature impacts water consumption by range cattle in winter
Water consumption and DMI have been found to be positively correlated, which may interact with ingestion of cold water or grazed frozen forage due to transitory reductions in temperature of ruminal contents. The hypothesis underpinning the study explores the potential that cows provided warm drinkin...
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Survival of rapidly fluctuating natural low winter temperatures by High Arctic soil invertebrates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Convey, Peter; Abbandonato, Holly; Bergan, Frode
2015-01-01
The extreme polar environment creates challenges for its resident invertebrate communities and the stress tolerance of some of these animals has been examined over many years. However, although it is well appreciated that standard air temperature records often fail to describe accurately conditions...... microhabitats. To assess survival of natural High Arctic soil invertebrate communities contained in soil and vegetation cores to natural winter temperature variations, the overwintering temperatures they experienced were manipulated by deploying cores in locations with varying snow accumulation: No Snow...... and did not decrease below -12. °C. Those under deep snow were even more stable and did not decline below -2. °C. Despite these striking differences in winter thermal regimes, there were no clear differences in survival of the invertebrate fauna between treatments, including oribatid, prostigmatid...
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Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.
2010-09-01
Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.
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Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Wang
2011-07-01
Full Text Available Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal patterns of winter ecosystem respiration (Reco of northern ecosystems are poorly understood. For this reason, we analyzed eddy covariance flux data from 57 ecosystem sites ranging from ~35° N to ~70° N. Deciduous forests were characterized by the highest winter Reco rates (0.90 ± 0.39 g C m−2 d−1, when winter is defined as the period during which daily air temperature remains below 0 °C. By contrast, arctic wetlands had the lowest winter Reco rates (0.02 ± 0.02 g C m−2 d−1. Mixed forests, evergreen needle-leaved forests, grasslands, croplands and boreal wetlands were characterized by intermediate winter Reco rates (g C m−2 d−1 of 0.70(±0.33, 0.60(±0.38, 0.62(±0.43, 0.49(±0.22 and 0.27(±0.08, respectively. Our cross site analysis showed that winter air (Tair and soil (Tsoil temperature played a dominating role in determining the spatial patterns of winter Reco in both forest and managed ecosystems (grasslands and croplands. Besides temperature, the seasonal amplitude of the leaf area index (LAI, inferred from satellite observation, or growing season gross primary productivity, which we use here as a proxy for the amount of recent carbon available for Reco in the subsequent winter, played a marginal role in winter CO2 emissions from forest ecosystems. We found that winter Reco sensitivity to temperature variation across space (
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thomsen, Ingrid Kaag; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen E
2010-01-01
The rise in mean annual temperatures under the projected climate change will affect both soil organic matter turnover and cropping patterns in agriculture. Nitrogen (N) mineralization may be higher during autumn and winter and may increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Our study tested whether...... before the late sowing of wheat caused generally higher levels of inorganic N to accumulate in soil. Despite the higher mineralization under the raised temperatures, at T+8 the late-sown winter wheat was able to reduce soil inorganic N to a lower level than late-sown wheat at the two lower temperatures...
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Human influence on Canadian temperatures
Wan, Hui; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis
2018-02-01
Canada has experienced some of the most rapid warming on Earth over the past few decades with a warming rate about twice that of the global mean temperature since 1948. Long-term warming is observed in Canada's annual, winter and summer mean temperatures, and in the annual coldest and hottest daytime and nighttime temperatures. The causes of these changes are assessed by comparing observed changes with climate model simulated responses to anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) external forcings. Most of the observed warming of 1.7 °C increase in annual mean temperature during 1948-2012 [90% confidence interval (1.1°, 2.2 °C)] can only be explained by external forcing on the climate system, with anthropogenic influence being the dominant factor. It is estimated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed 1.0 °C (0.6°, 1.5 °C) and natural external forcing has contributed 0.2 °C (0.1°, 0.3 °C) to the observed warming. Up to 0.5 °C of the observed warming trend may be associated with low frequency variability of the climate such as that represented by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Overall, the influence of both anthropogenic and natural external forcing is clearly evident in Canada-wide mean and extreme temperatures, and can also be detected regionally over much of the country.
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Raccuglia, Margherita; Lloyd, Alex; Filingeri, Davide; Faulkner, Steve H; Hodder, Simon; Havenith, George
2016-02-01
Passive muscle heating has been shown to reduce the drop in post-warm-up muscle temperature (Tm) by about 25% over 30 min, with concomitant sprint/power performance improvements. We sought to determine the role of leg blood flow in this cooling and whether optimising the heating procedure would further benefit post-warm-up T m maintenance. Ten male cyclists completed 15-min sprint-based warm-up followed by 30 min recovery. Vastus lateralis Tm (Tmvl) was measured at deep-, mid- and superficial-depths before and after the warm-up, and after the recovery period (POST-REC). During the recovery period, participants wore water-perfused trousers heated to 43 °C (WPT43) with either whole leg heating (WHOLE) or upper leg heating (UPPER), which was compared to heating with electrically heated trousers at 40 °C (ELEC40) and a non-heated control (CON). The blood flow cooling effect on Tmvl was studied comparing one leg with (BF) and without (NBF) blood flow. Warm-up exercise significantly increased Tmvl by ~3 °C at all depths. After the recovery period, BF Tmvl was lower (~0.3 °C) than NBF Tmvl at all measured depths, with no difference between WHOLE versus UPPER. WPT43 reduced the post-warm-up drop in deep-Tmvl (-0.12 °C ± 0.3 °C) compared to ELEC40 (-1.08 ± 0.4 °C) and CON (-1.3 ± 0.3 °C), whereas mid- and superficial-Tmvl even increased by 0.15 ± 0.3 and 1.1 ± 1.1 °C, respectively. Thigh blood flow contributes to the post-warm-up Tmvl decline. Optimising the external heating procedure and increasing heating temperature of only 3 °C successfully maintained and even increased T mvl, demonstrating that heating temperature is the major determinant of post-warm-up Tmvl cooling in this application.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Watanabe, Masahiro
2014-01-01
Abnormal sea-ice retreat over the Barents Sea during early winter has been considered a leading driver of recent midlatitude severe winters over Eurasia. However, causal relationships between such retreat and the atmospheric circulation anomalies remains uncertain. Using a reanalysis dataset, we found that poleward shift of a sea surface temperature front over the Gulf Stream likely induces warm southerly advection and consequent sea-ice decline over the Barents Sea sector, and a cold anomaly over Eurasia via planetary waves triggered over the Gulf Stream region. The above mechanism is supported by the steady atmospheric response to the diabatic heating anomalies over the Gulf Stream region obtained with a linear baroclinic model. The remote atmospheric response from the Gulf Stream would be amplified over the Barents Sea region via interacting with sea-ice anomaly, promoting the warm Arctic and cold Eurasian pattern. (letter)
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Bahbahani, K. M.; Pidwirny, M. J.
2017-12-01
The winter of 2014/2015 was one of the warmest in recent history for many locations in western North America. The cause of this climate irregularity was the development of extremely warm ocean surface waters (The Blob) over much of the eastern North Pacific Ocean. During this winter season, many ski resorts in western Canada and the United States either did not open or were forced to close their ski season early. Here, we examine climate data from 157 ski resorts to develop a picture of where the effected locations were in western North America. Using the climate database software ClimateBC and ClimateNA, high quality downscaled historical data was generated for the winter season (December, January, and February) for the variables mean temperature, snowfall, and rainfall. Values for winter of 2014/15 were statistically compared to the 30-year normal period from 1981-2010. Z-scores were calculated for 2014/15 relative to the selected 30-year normal period. These Z-score values were then mapped using ArcGIS. From the mean winter temperature map, it is apparent that abnormally warm temperatures influenced many ski resorts in California, Nevada, western Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Utah, southern Idaho, and parts of southern British Columbia. The winter snowfall map shows anomalous below normal conditions only at two resorts in south-central British Columbia and a single above normal situation at one site in central Colorado. The winter rainfall map displays that many ski resorts in New Mexico, Arizona, southern Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, western Washington, and southwestern British Columbia experienced exceptional above normal winter season rainfalls. It is highly likely that the next Blob will be forecasted many months in advance of its occurrence. The results of this study have identified which ski resorts could be climatically influenced by such an event. This information may help reduce potential financial losses to ski resorts and their associated
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Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures
Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Filipe; Perron, Pierre
2017-01-01
Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded
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Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.
2017-01-01
Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.
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Unusually amplified summer or winter indoor levels of radon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gammage, R.B.; Dudney, C.S.; Wilson, D.L.
1993-01-01
The ratios of winter/summer indoor radon levels for houses in different regions of the southern Appalachians are characterized by individual log-normal distributions with geometric means both above and below unity. In some counties and cities, subpopulations of houses have unusually exaggerated winter/summer ratios of indoor radon, as well as high indoor radon levels, during periods of either warm or cool weather. It is proposed that in many instances, houses are communicating with larger than normal underground reservoirs of radon-bearing air in hilly karst terrains; differences between the outdoor and underground air temperatures are believed to provide density gradients producing aerostatic pressure differences for seasonally directed underground transport and subsequently elevated indoor radon. These seasonal movements of air are analogous to the well-known underground chimney effects, which produce interzonal flows of air inside caves
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yanyu Yin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Based on a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1960–2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHPC, spatiotemporal variation and abrupt change analysis of temperature were examined by moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and moving t-test. Major conclusions were listed as follows. (1 Annual and seasonal temperature increased with different rates on the process of fluctuating changes during 1960~2012. The upward trend was 0.22°C 10a−1 for annual temperature, while it was very significant in winter (0.34°C 10a−1 and spring (0.31°C 10a−1, moderately significant in autumn (0.21°C 10a−1, and nonsignificant in summer (0.05°C 10a−1. (2 The spatial changes of annual and seasonal temperature were similar. The temperature increased significantly in Beijing and its adjacent regions, while it was nonsignificant in the central and southern regions. (3 The spring, autumn, winter, and annual temperature had warm abrupt change. The abrupt change time for winter temperature was in the late 1970s, while it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s for spring, autumn, and annual temperature. (4 Macroscopic effects of global and regional climate warming and human activities were probably responsible for the temperature changes. The climate warming would influence the hydrological cycle and agricultural crops in the study area.
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Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.
Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi
2018-04-01
Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.
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New winter hardy winter bread wheat cultivar (Triticum aestivum L. Voloshkova
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Л. М. Голик
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Creation of Initial raw for breeding of winter wheat by change of the development type under low temperatures influence was described. Seeds of spring wheat were vernalized in aluminum weighting bottle. By using low temperatures at sawing of M2-6 at the begin ind of optimal terms of sawing of winter wheat, new winter-hardy variety of Voloshkova was bred.
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Marañón-Jiménez, Sara; Soong, Jenniffer L.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Dauwe, Steven; Fransen, Erik; Janssens, Ivan A.
2017-04-01
Increasing temperatures can accelerate soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and release large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, potentially inducing climate change feedbacks. Alterations to the temperature sensitivity and metabolic pathways of soil microorganisms in response to soil warming can play a key role in these soil carbon (C) losses. Here, we present results of an incubation experiment using soils from a geothermal gradient in Iceland that have been subjected to different intensities of soil warming (+0, +1, +3, +5, +10 and +20 °C above ambient) over seven years. We hypothesized that 7 years of soil warming would led to a depletion of labile organic substrates, with a subsequent decrease of the "apparent" temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. Associated to this C limitation and more sub-optimal conditions for microbial growth, we also hypothesized increased microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass), which is associated with increases in the relative amount of C invested into catabolic pathways along the warming gradient. Soil respiration and basal respiration rates decreased with soil warming intensity, in parallel with a decline in soil C availability. Contrasting to our first hypothesis, we did not detect changes in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration with soil warming or on the availability of nutrients and of labile C substrates at the time of incubation. However, in agreement to our second hypothesis, microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass) increased at warmer temperatures, while the C retained in biomass decreased as substrate became limiting. Long-term (7 years) temperature increases thus triggered a change in the metabolic functioning of the soil microbial communities towards increasing energy costs for maintenance or resource acquisition, thereby lowering the capacity of C retention and stabilization of warmed soils. These results highlight the need
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Unusial winter 2011/2012 in Slovakia
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Faško, P.; Lapin, M.; Matejovič, P.; Pecho, Jozef
2012-01-01
Roč. 15, č. 1 (2012), s. 19-26 ISSN 1335-339X Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : winter characteristics * climate variabilit * climate change * global warming Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
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Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon
2014-01-01
Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)
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Arctic vegetation damage by winter-generated coal mining pollution released upon thawing
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Elberling, B.; Søndergaard, J.; Jensen, L.A.
2007-01-01
summer period. Here we show that heat generation within an oxidizing, sulfidic, coal-mining waste-rock pile in Svalbard (78° N) is high enough to keep the pile warm (roughly 5 °C throughout the year) despite mean annual air temperatures below -5 °C. Consequently, weathering processes continue year...... the adverse environmental impacts of cold region coal-mining need to pay more attention to winter processes including AMD generation and accumulation of weathering products....
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Temperature changes in Three Gorges Reservoir Area and linkage with Three Gorges Project
Song, Zhen; Liang, Shunlin; Feng, Lian; He, Tao; Song, Xiao-Peng; Zhang, Lei
2017-05-01
The Three Gorges Project (TGP) is one of the largest hydroelectric projects throughout the world. It has brought many benefits to the society but also led to endless debates about its environmental and climatic impacts. Monitoring the spatiotemporal variations of temperature in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) is important for understanding the climatic impacts of the TGP. In this study, we used remote sensing-based land surface temperature (LST) and ground-measured air temperature data to investigate temperature changes in the TGRA. Results showed that during the daytime in summer, LST exhibited significant cooling (1-5°C) in the downstream region of the reservoir, whereas LST during the nighttime in winter exhibited significant warming (1-5°C) across the entire reservoir. However, these cooling and warming effects were both locally constrained within 5 km buffer along the reservoir. The changes in air temperature were consistent with those in LST, with 0.67°C cooling in summer and 0.33°C warming in winter. The temperature changes along the reservoir not only resulted from the land-water conversion induced by the dam impounding but were also related to the increase of vegetation cover caused by the ecological restoration projects. Significant warming trends were also found in the upstream of TGRA, especially during the daytime in summer, with up to 5°C for LST and 0.52°C for air temperature. The warming was caused mainly by urban expansion, which was driven in part by the population resettlement of TGP. Based on satellite observations, we investigated the comprehensive climatic impacts of TGP caused by multiple factors.
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Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming
Carey, J.C.; Tang, J.; Templer, P.H.; Kroeger, K.D.; Crowther, T.W.; Burton, A.J.; Dukes, J.S.; Emmett, B.; Frey, S.D.; Heskel, M.A.; Jiang, L.; Machmuller, M.B.; Mohan, J.; Panetta, A.M.; Reich, P.B.; Reinsch, S.; Wang, X.; Allison, S.D.; Bamminger, C.; Bridgham, S.; Collins, S.L.; de Dato, G.; Eddy, W.C.; Enquist, B.J.; Estiarte, M.; Harte, J.; Henderson, A.; Johnson, B.R.; Larsen, K.S.; Luo, Y.; Marhan, S.; Melillo, J.M.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Rastetter, E.; Reinmann, A.B.; Reynolds, L.L.; Schmidt, I.K.; Shaver, G.R.; Strong, A.L.; Suseela, V.; Tietema, A.
2016-01-01
The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific
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Warming effects on the urban hydrology in cold climate regions.
Järvi, L; Grimmond, C S B; McFadden, J P; Christen, A; Strachan, I B; Taka, M; Warsta, L; Heimann, M
2017-07-19
While approximately 338 million people in the Northern hemisphere live in regions that are regularly snow covered in winter, there is little hydro-climatologic knowledge in the cities impacted by snow. Using observations and modelling we have evaluated the energy and water exchanges of four cities that are exposed to wintertime snow. We show that the presence of snow critically changes the impact that city design has on the local-scale hydrology and climate. After snow melt, the cities return to being strongly controlled by the proportion of built and vegetated surfaces. However in winter, the presence of snow masks the influence of the built and vegetated fractions. We show how inter-year variability of wintertime temperature can modify this effect of snow. With increasing temperatures, these cities could be pushed towards very different partitioning between runoff and evapotranspiration. We derive the dependency of wintertime runoff on this warming effect in combination with the effect of urban densification.
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A fifty year record of winter glacier melt events in southern Chile, 38°–42°S
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brock, Ben W; Burger, Flavia; Montecinos, Aldo; Rivera, Andrés
2012-01-01
Little is known about the frequency and potential mass balance impact of winter glacier melt events. In this study, daily atmospheric temperature soundings from the Puerto Montt radiosonde (41.43°S) are used to reconstruct winter melting events at the glacier equilibrium line altitude in the 38°–42°S region of southern Chile, between 1960 and 2010. The representativeness of the radiosonde temperatures to near-surface glacier temperatures is demonstrated using meteorological records from close to the equilibrium line on two glaciers in the region over five winters. Using a degree-day model we estimate an average of 0.28 m of melt and 21 melt days in the 15 June–15 September period each year, with high inter-annual variability. The majority of melt events are associated with midlatitude migratory high pressure systems crossing Chile and northwesterly flows, that force adiabatic compression and warm advection, respectively. There are no trends in the frequency or magnitude of melt events over the period of record, but the annual frequency of winter melt days shows a significant, although rather weak and probably non-linear, relationship to late winter and early spring values of a multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). (letter)
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Wang, F.; Vavrus, S. J.
2017-12-01
Horizontal temperature advection plays an especially prominent role in affecting winter climate over continental interiors, where both climatological conditions and extreme weather are strongly regulated by transport of remote air masses. Central North America is one such region, and it experienced a major cold-air outbreak (CAO) a few years ago that some have related to amplified Arctic warming. Despite the known importance of dynamics in shaping the winter climate of this sector and the potential for climate change to modify heat transport, limited attention has been paid to the regional impact of thermal advection. Here, we use a reanalysis product and output from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble to quantify the roles of zonal and meridional temperature advection over the central U. S. during winter, both in the late 20th and 21st centuries. We frame our findings as a "tug of war" between opposing influences of the two advection components and between these dynamical forcings vs. thermodynamic changes under greenhouse warming. For example, Arctic amplification leads to much warmer polar air masses, causing a moderation of cold-air advection into the central U. S., yet the model also simulates a wavier mean circulation and stronger northerly flow during CAOs, favoring lower regional temperatures. We also compare the predominant warming effect of zonal advection and overall cooling effect of meridional temperature advection as an additional tug of war. During both historical and future periods, zonal temperature advection is stronger than meridional advection over the Central U. S. The model simulates a future weakening of both zonal and meridional temperature advection, such that westerly flow provides less warming and northerly flow less cooling. On the most extreme warm days in the past and future, both zonal and meridional temperature advection have positive (warming) contributions. On the most extreme cold days, meridional cold air advection
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Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India
Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.
2016-04-01
The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.
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Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.
Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P
2009-10-01
Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.
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Persisting and strong warming hiatus over eastern China during the past two decades
Chen, Yang; Zhai, Panmao
2017-10-01
During the past two decades since 1997, eastern China has experienced a warming hiatus punctuated by significant cooling in daily-minimum temperature (Tmin), particularly during early-mid winter. By arbitrarily configuring start and end years, a ‘vantage hiatus period’ in eastern China is detected over 1998-2013, during when the domain-averaged Tmin exhibited the strongest cooling trend and the number of significant cooling stations peaked. Regions most susceptible to the warming hiatus are located in North China, the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and South China, where significant cooling in Tmin persisted through 2016. This sustained hiatus gave rise to increasingly frequent and severe cold extremes there. Concerning its prolonged persistency and great cooling rate, the recent warming hiatus over eastern China deviates much from most historical short-term trends during the past five decades, and thus could be viewed as an outlier against the prevalent warming context.
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Garcia, Rolando R.; Boville, Byron A.
1994-01-01
According to the 'downward control' principle, the extratropical mean vertical velocity on a given pressure level is approximately proportional to the meridional gradient of the vertically integrated zonal force per unit mass exerted by waves above that level. In this paper, a simple numerical model that includes parameterizations of both planetary and gravity wave breaking is used to explore the influence of gravity wave breaking in the mesosphere on the mean meridional circulation and temperature distribution at lower levels in the polar winter stratosphere. The results of these calculations suggest that gravity wave drag in the mesosphere can affect the state of the polar winter stratosphere down to altitudes below 30 km. The effect is most important when planetary wave driving is relatively weak: that is, during southern winter and in early northern winter. In southern winter, downwelling weakens by a factor of 2 near the stratospause and by 20% at 30 km when gravity wave drag is not included in the calculations. As a consequence, temperatures decrease considerably throughout the polar winter stratosphere (over 20 K above 40 km and as much as 8 K at 30 km, where the effect is enhanced by the long radiative relaxation timescale). The polar winter states obtained when gravity wave drag is omitted in this simple model resemble the results of simulations with some general circulation models and suggest that some of the shortcomings of the latter may be due to a deficit in mesospheric momentum deposition by small-scale gravity waves.
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An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability
Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang
2018-03-01
Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.
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The Impact of Cloud Properties on Young Sea Ice during Three Winter Storms at N-ICE2015
Murphy, S. Y.; Walden, V. P.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.
2017-12-01
The impact of clouds on sea ice varies significantly as cloud properties change. Instruments deployed during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice field campaign (N-ICE2015) are used to study how differing cloud properties influence the cloud radiative forcing at the sea ice surface. N-ICE2015 was the first campaign in the Arctic winter since SHEBA (1997/1998) to study the surface energy budget of sea ice and the associated effects of cloud properties. Cloud characteristics, surface radiative and turbulent fluxes, and meteorological properties were measured throughout the field campaign. Here we explore how cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties affect young, thin sea ice during three winter storms from 31 January to 15 February 2015. This time period is of interest due to the varying surface and atmospheric conditions, which showcase the variety of conditions the newly-formed sea ice can experience during the winter. This period was characterized by large variations in the ice surface and near-surface air temperatures, with highs near 0°C when warm, moist air was advected into the area and lows reaching -40°C during clear, calm periods between storms. The advection of warm, moist air into the area influenced the cloud properties and enhanced the downwelling longwave flux. For most of the period, downwelling longwave flux correlates closely with the air temperature. However, at the end of the first storm, a drop in downwelling longwave flux of about 50 Wm-2 was observed, independent of any change in surface or air temperature or cloud fraction, indicating a change in cloud properties. Lidar data show an increase in cloud height during this period and a potential shift in cloud phase from ice to mixed-phase. This study will describe the cloud properties during the three winter storms and discuss their impacts on surface energy budget.
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Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig
2013-01-01
We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.
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D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Seager, Richard; Smerdon, Jason E.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Cook, Edward R.
2011-01-01
The multi ]stage eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki beginning in June, 1783 is speculated to have caused unusual dry fog and heat in western Europe and cold in North America during the 1783 summer, and record cold and snow the subsequent winter across the circum-North Atlantic. Despite the many indisputable impacts of the Laki eruption, however, its effect on climate, particularly during the 1783.1784 winter, may be the most poorly constrained. Here we test an alternative explanation for the unusual conditions during this time: that they were caused primarily by a combined negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an El Nino ]Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event. A similar combination of NAO ]ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009.2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600-year tree-ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783.1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009.2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO ]ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783.1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.
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Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg
2017-02-01
Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Rasse, Daniel P.; Lund, Magnus
2018-01-01
impact of this event. Our results indicate that gross primary production (GPP) exhibited a delayed response to temperature following snowmelt. From snowmelt up to the peak of summer, this reduced carbon uptake by 14 (0-24) g Cm-2 (similar to 12% of GPP in that period)-similar to the effect of interannual......Extreme winter events that damage vegetation are considered an important climatic cause of arctic browning-a reversal of the greening trend of the region-and possibly reduce the carbon uptake of northern ecosystems. Confirmation of a reduction in CO2 uptake due to winter damage, however, remains...... event. The warm summer also increased ecosystem respiration, which limited net carbon uptake. This study shows that damage from a single extreme winter event can have an ecosystem-wide impact on CO2 uptake, and highlights the importance of including winter-induced shrub damage in terrestrial ecosystem...
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Projecting the impact of climate change on phenology of winter wheat in northern Lithuania.
Juknys, Romualdas; Velička, Rimantas; Kanapickas, Arvydas; Kriaučiūnienė, Zita; Masilionytė, Laura; Vagusevičienė, Ilona; Pupalienė, Rita; Klepeckas, Martynas; Sujetovienė, Gintarė
2017-10-01
Climate warming and a shift in the timing of phenological phases, which lead to changes in the duration of the vegetation period may have an essential impact on the productivity of winter crops. The main purpose of this study is to examine climate change-related long-term (1961-2015) changes in the duration of both initial (pre-winter) and main (post-winter) winter wheat vegetation seasons and to present the projection of future phenological changes until the end of this century. Delay and shortening of pre-winter vegetation period, as well as the advancement and slight extension of the post-winter vegetation period, resulted in the reduction of whole winter wheat vegetation period by more than 1 week over the investigated 55 years. Projected changes in the timing of phenological phases which define limits of a main vegetation period differ essentially from the observed period. According to pessimistic (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) scenario, the advancement of winter wheat maturity phase by almost 30 days and the shortening of post-winter vegetation season by 15 days are foreseen for a far (2071-2100) projection. An increase in the available chilling amount is specific not only to the investigated historical period (1960-2015) but also to the projected period according to the climate change scenarios of climate warming for all three projection periods. Consequently, the projected climate warming does not pose a threat of plant vernalization shortage in the investigated geographical latitudes.
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Specifics of soil temperature under winter oilseed rape canopy
Krčmářová, Jana; Středa, Tomáš; Pokorný, Radovan
2014-09-01
The aim of this study was to evaluate the course of soil temperature under the winter oilseed rape canopy and to determine relationships between soil temperature, air temperature and partly soil moisture. In addition, the aim was to describe the dependence by means of regression equations usable for pests and pathogens prediction, crop development, and yields models. The measurement of soil and near the ground air temperatures was performed at the experimental field Žabiče (South Moravia, the Czech Republic). The course of temperature was determined under or in the winter oilseed rape canopy during spring growth season in the course of four years (2010 - 2012 and 2014). In all years, the standard varieties (Petrol, Sherpa) were grown, in 2014 the semi-dwarf variety PX104 was added. Automatic soil sensors were positioned at three depths (0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m) under soil surface, air temperature sensors in 0.05 m above soil surfaces. The course of soil temperature differs significantly between standard (Sherpa and Petrol) and semi-dwarf (PX104) varieties. Results of the cross correlation analysis showed, that the best interrelationships between air and soil temperature were achieved in 2 hours delay for the soil temperature in 0.05 m, 4 hour delay for 0.10 m and 7 hour delay for 0.20 m for standard varieties. For semi-dwarf variety, this delay reached 6 hour for the soil temperature in 0.05 m, 7 hour delay for 0.10 m and 11 hour for 0.20 m. After the time correction, the determination coefficient (R2) reached values from 0.67 to 0.95 for 0.05 m, 0.50 to 0.84 for 0.10 m in variety Sherpa during all experimental years. For variety PX104 this coefficient reached values from 0.51 to 0.72 in 0.05 m depth and from 0.39 to 0.67 in 0.10 m depth in the year 2014. The determination coefficient in the 0.20 m depth was lower for both varieties; its values were from 0.15 to 0.65 in variety Sherpa. In variety PX104 the values of R2 from 0.23 to 0.57 were determined. When using
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The time of day effects of warm temperature on flowering time involve PIF4 and PIF5
Thines, Bryan C.; Duarte, Maritza I.; Harmon, Frank G.
2014-01-01
Warm temperature promotes flowering in Arabidopsis thaliana and this response involves multiple signalling pathways. To understand the temporal dynamics of temperature perception, tests were carried out to determine if there was a daily window of enhanced sensitivity to warm temperature (28 °C). Warm temperature applied during daytime, night-time, or continuously elicited earlier flowering, but the effects of each treatment were unequal. Plants exposed to warm night (WN) conditions flowered nearly as early as those in constant warm (CW) conditions, while treatment with warm days (WD) caused later flowering than either WN or CW. Flowering in each condition relied to varying degrees on the activity of CO , FT , PIF4 , and PIF5 , as well as the action of unknown genes. The combination of signalling pathways involved in flowering depended on the time of the temperature cue. WN treatments caused a significant advance in the rhythmic expression waveform of CO, which correlated with pronounced up-regulation of FT expression, while WD caused limited changes in CO expression and no stimulation of FT expression. WN- and WD-induced flowering was partially CO independent and, unexpectedly, dependent on PIF4 and PIF5 . pif4-2, pif5-3, and pif4-2 pif5-3 mutants had delayed flowering under all three warm conditions. The double mutant was also late flowering in control conditions. In addition, WN conditions alone imposed selective changes to PIF4 and PIF5 expression. Thus, the PIF4 and PIF5 transcription factors promote flowering by at least two means: inducing FT expression in WN and acting outside of FT by an unknown mechanism in WD. PMID:24574484
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Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi
2017-12-01
High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.
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Large ground warming in the Canadian Arctic inferred from inversions of temperature logs
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Majorowicz, J. A.; Skinner, W. R.; Šafanda, Jan
2004-01-01
Roč. 221, č. 1 (2004), s. 15-25 ISSN 0012-821X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : global warming * borehole temperatures * ground temperatures Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 3.499, year: 2004
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Beier, C.M. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology and Wildlife; Sink, S.E.; Juday, G.P. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Hennon, P.E.; D' Amore, D.V. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Juneau, AK (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory
2008-06-15
The decline of yellow cedar in temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska was investigated. Dieback of the species has been observed as early as 1909. The dehardening process for the species is highly temperature-dependent. Declining stands have been found in open-canopy forests on poorly drained sites. Historical climate data sets were compiled suing extensive tree-ring chronologies. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that a specific suite of microclimatic conditions that occur during late winter involving early dehardening, reduced snowpack, and freezing injury are responsible. The assumption was tested by examining regional climatic trends and growth responses of declining cedar populations. Results of the study showed increasing winter temperatures in the region which have resulted in the frequent occurrence of severe thaw-freeze events. Late winter weather was the best predictor of annual growth for surviving trees. Results of the study also verified the impact of elevational gradients of temperature and snow cover on the exposure of the trees to climatic stressors. It was concluded that yellow cedars may continue to decline with continued climatic warming. 36 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.
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Varis, Joonas; Haverinen, Jaakko; Vornanen, Matti
2016-02-01
Seasonal changes in physiology of vertebrate animals are triggered by environmental cues including temperature, day-length and oxygen availability. Crucian carp (Carassius carassius) tolerate prolonged anoxia in winter by using several physiological adaptations that are seasonally activated. This study examines which environmental cues are required to trigger physiological adjustments for winter dormancy in crucian carp. To this end, crucian carp were exposed to changing environmental factors under laboratory conditions: effects of declining water temperature, shortening day-length and reduced oxygen availability, separately and in different combinations, were examined on glycogen content and enzyme activities involved in feeding (alkaline phosphatase, AP) and glycogen metabolism (glycogen synthase, GyS; glycogen phosphorylase, GP). Lowering temperature induced a fall in activity of AP and a rise in glycogen content and rate of glycogen synthesis. Relative mass of the liver, and glycogen concentration of liver, muscle and brain increased with lowering temperature. Similarly activity of GyS in muscle and expression of GyS transcripts in brain were up-regulated by lowering temperature. Shortened day-length and oxygen availability had practically no effects on measured variables. We conclude that lowering temperature is the main trigger in preparation for winter anoxia in crucian carp.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A.
2012-01-01
The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Hye-Mi; Webster, Peter J.; Curry, Judith A. [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Atlanta, GA (United States)
2012-12-15
The seasonal prediction skill for the Northern Hemisphere winter is assessed using retrospective predictions (1982-2010) from the ECMWF System 4 (Sys4) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFS version 2 (CFSv2) coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal climate prediction systems. Sys4 shows a cold bias in the equatorial Pacific but a warm bias is found in the North Pacific and part of the North Atlantic. The CFSv2 has strong warm bias from the cold tongue region of the eastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific and cold bias in broad areas over the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. A cold bias in the Southern Hemisphere is common in both reforecasts. In addition, excessive precipitation is found in the equatorial Pacific, the equatorial Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in Sys4, and in the South Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the western Pacific in CFSv2. A dry bias is found for both modeling systems over South America and northern Australia. The mean prediction skill of 2 meter temperature (2mT) and precipitation anomalies are greater over the tropics than the extra-tropics and also greater over ocean than land. The prediction skill of tropical 2mT and precipitation is greater in strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters than in weak ENSO winters. Both models predict the year-to-year ENSO variation quite accurately, although sea surface temperature trend bias in CFSv2 over the tropical Pacific results in lower prediction skill for the CFSv2 relative to the Sys4. Both models capture the main ENSO teleconnection pattern of strong anomalies over the tropics, the North Pacific and the North America. However, both models have difficulty in forecasting the year-to-year winter temperature variability over the US and northern Europe. (orig.)
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Specificity Responses of Grasshoppers in Temperate Grasslands to Diel Asymmetric Warming
Wu, Tingjuan; Hao, Shuguang; Sun, Osbert Jianxin; Kang, Le
2012-01-01
Background Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation. Conclusions/Significance Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and
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Asse, Daphné; Randin, Christophe; Chuine, Isabelle
2017-04-01
Mountain regions are particularly exposed to climate change and temperature. In the Alps increased twice faster than in the northern hemisphere during the 20th century. As an immediate response, spring phenological phases of plant species such as budburst and flowering, have tended to occur earlier. In 2004, the CREA (Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d'Altitude, Chamonix, France) initiated the citizen science program Phenoclim, which aims at assessing the long-term effects of climate changes on plant phenology over the entire French Alps. Sixty sites with phenological observations were equipped with temperature stations across a large elevational gradient. Here we used phenological records for five tree species (birch, ash, hazel, spruce and larch) combined with measurements or projections of temperature. We first tested the effects of geographic and topo-climatic factors on the timing of spring phenological phases. We then tested the hypothesis that a lack of chilling temperature during winter delayed dormancy release and subsequently spring phenological phases. Our data are currently being used to calibrate process-based phenological models to test to which extent soil temperature and photoperiod affect the timing of spring phenological phases. We found that growing degree-days was the best predictor of the timing of spring phenological phases, with a significant contribution of chilling. Our results also suggest that spring phenological phases were consistently delayed at low elevation by a lack of chilling in fall during warm years for the three deciduous species. Key words: Spring phenology, elevation gradients, citizen science, empirical and process-based modeling
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Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan; Peng, Shao-Lin
2017-07-01
Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive ( Eupatorium catarium , Mikania micrantha , Biodens pilosa var. radiate , Ageratum conyzoides ) in China, and four are native ( Sonchus arvensis , Senecios candens , Pterocypsela indica , Eupatorium fortunei ). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment ( T c ) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTR sym ), asymmetric warming with increased (DTR inc ) and decreased (DTR dec ) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTR sym and DTR inc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTR sym and DTR inc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTR sym , DTR dec decreased the biomass of
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Hakeem, Abdul R; Birks, Theodore; Azeem, Qasim; Di Franco, Filippo; Gergely, Szabolcs; Harris, Adrian M
2016-06-01
There is conflicting evidence for the use of warmed, humidified carbon dioxide (CO2) for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Few studies have reported less post-operative pain and analgesic requirement when warmed CO2 was used. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to analyse the literature on the use of warmed CO2 in comparison to standard temperature CO2 during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Systematic review and meta-analysis carried out in line with the PRISMA guidelines. Primary outcomes of interest were post-operative pain at 6 h, day 1 and day 2 following laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Secondary outcomes were analgesic usage and drop in intra-operative core body temperature. Standard Mean Difference (SMD) was calculated for continuous variables. Six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria (n = 369). There was no significant difference in post-operative pain at 6 h [3 RCTs; SMD = -0.66 (-1.33, 0.02) (Z = 1.89) (P = 0.06)], day 1 [4 RCTs; SMD = -0.51 (-1.47, 0.44) (Z = 1.05) (P = 0.29)] and day 2 [2 RCTs; SMD = -0.96 (-2.30, 0.37) (Z = 1.42) (P = 0.16)] between the warmed CO2 and standard CO2 group. There was no difference in analgesic usage between the two groups, but pooled analysis was not possible. Two RCTs reported significant drop in intra-operative core body temperature, but there were no adverse events related to this. This review showed no difference in post-operative pain and analgesic requirements between the warmed and standard CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Currently there is not enough high quality evidence to suggest routine usage of warmed CO2 for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2015 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming
Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui
2017-03-01
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. Xu
2009-09-01
Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes.
In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days.
Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates -
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. Xu
2009-09-01
Full Text Available The coupling processes in the middle atmosphere have been a subject of intense research activity because of their effects on atmospheric circulation, structure, variability, and the distribution of chemical constituents. In this study, the day-to-day variability of Aura-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data are used to reveal the vertical and interhemispheric coupling processes in the stratosphere-mesosphere during four Northern Hemisphere winters (2004/2005–2007/2008. The UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office assimilated data and mesospheric winds from MF (medium frequency radars are also applied to help highlight the coupling processes. In this study, a clear vertical link can be seen between the stratosphere and mesosphere during winter months. The coolings and reversals of northward meridional winds in the polar winter mesosphere are often observed in relation to warming events (Sudden Stratospheric Warming, SSW for short and the associated changes in zonal winds in the polar winter stratosphere. An upper-mesospheric cooling usually precedes the beginning of the warming in the stratosphere by 1–2 days. Inter-hemispheric coupling has been identified initially by a correlation analysis using the year-to-year monthly zonal mean temperature. Then the correlation analyses are performed based upon the daily zonal mean temperature. From the original time sequences, significant positive (negative correlations are generally found between zonal mean temperatures at the Antarctic summer mesopause and in the Arctic winter stratosphere (mesosphere during northern mid-winters, although these correlations are dominated by the low frequency variability (i.e. the seasonal trend. Using the short-term oscillations (less than 15 days, the statistical result, by looking for the largest magnitude of correlation within a range of time-lags (0 to 10 days; positive lags mean that the Antarctic summer mesopause is lagging, indicates that the temporal
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Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Skiba, Ute; Nemitz, Eiko; Billett, Michael; Sutton, Mark
2014-05-01
dominant. The site is wet throughout most of the year (water table depth values were found for years with warm winters and relatively wet growing seasons. A simple parameterisation of the effects of PAR on GPP of and air temperature on ecosystem respiration, suggest that a rise in air temperature of 1° C between 2012 and 2065 could lead to a 73% increase in the carbon sink strength of the peatland, provided hydrological conditions remain unchanged. This demonstrates that climate change is not likely to change this peatland into a carbon source by 2100.
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Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E
2015-08-11
Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.
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Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers
Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen
2018-04-01
A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.
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Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate
Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.
2016-01-01
Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.
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Chemical and Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on Arctic Ozone Variability
Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Steenrod, S. D.
2016-01-01
We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields to quantify heterogeneous chemical ozone loss in Arctic winters 2005-2015. Comparisons to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder N2O and O3 observations show the GMI simulation credibly represents the transport processes and net heterogeneous chemical loss necessary to simulate Arctic ozone. We find that the maximum seasonal ozone depletion varies linearly with the number of cold days and with wave driving (eddy heat flux) calculated from MERRA fields. We use this relationship and MERRA temperatures to estimate seasonal ozone loss from 1993 to 2004 when inorganic chlorine levels were in the same range as during the Aura period. Using these loss estimates and the observed March mean 63-90N column O3, we quantify the sensitivity of the ozone dynamical resupply to wave driving, separating it from the sensitivity of ozone depletion to wave driving. The results show that about 2/3 of the deviation of the observed March Arctic O3 from an assumed climatological mean is due to variations in O3 resupply and 13 is due to depletion. Winters with a stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) before mid-February have about 1/3 the depletion of winters without one and export less depletion to the midlatitudes. However, a larger effect on the spring midlatitude ozone comes from dynamical differences between warm and cold Arctic winters, which can mask or add to the impact of exported depletion.
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Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L
2016-11-01
Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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A successful forecast of an El Nino winter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kerr, R.A.
1992-01-01
This year, for the first time, weather forecasters used signs of a warming in the tropical Pacific as the basis for a long-range prediction of winter weather patterns across the United States. Now forecasters are talking about the next step: stretching the lead time for such forecasts by a year or more. That seems feasible because although this Pacific warming was unmistakable by the time forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Analysis Center (CAC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, issued their winter forecast, the El Nino itself had been predicted almost 2 years in advance by a computer model. Next time around, the CAC may well be listening to the modelers and predicting El Nino-related patterns of warmth and flooding seasons in advance
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Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira
This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (Pchanges in ambient temperature.
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Tree-ring temperature reconstructions for the northeastern United States from Chamaecyparis thyoides
Anchukaitis, K. J.; Pederson, N.; Pearl, J. K.; Donnelly, J. P.
2014-12-01
Over the last century, the northeastern United States has warmed by over 1C, with the region of strongest warming found in coastal Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. These states are amongst the fastest warming in the entire country and the region as a whole is also warming faster than the national average. While these records all appear exceptional in the context of the last century, it is not known how these compare on longer time scales, to potential preindustrial late Holocene warm epochs, and in the context of decadal-scale variability in regional climate. Here, we develop a January through August temperature reconstruction using three Chamaecyparis thyoides (Atlantic White Cedar) chronologies in Massachusetts and Maine. The chronologies show a strong winter-spring-summer temperature signal representative of temperature variability from southern New York to northeastern Maine. The reconstruction is skillful and tracks upwards temperature trends since the early 19th century, reproducing decadal scale variability associated with warming from the 1920s through 1940s, cooling in the region from the 1940s until the 1960s, and warming since that time. No year since at least the middle of the 19th century is as warm as the Janaury through August temperatures seen in the exceptionally warm 2012. Recent modeling experiments simulate a range of decadal warming trends for the northeastern United States that is slightly higher than the reconstructed and instrumental trends. Atlantic White Cedar holds the potential to develop multicentury temperature reconstructions from this heavily-populated region.
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SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE TO ATMOSPHERIC AMMONIA DOES NOT AFFECT LOW-TEMPERATURE HARDENING OF WINTER-WHEAT
CLEMENT, JMAM; VENEMA, JH; VANHASSELT, PR
The effect of atmospheric NH3 on low-temperature hardening of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Urban) was investigated. Growth and photosynthesis were stimulated by ammonia exposure. After a 14 d exposure at moderate temperatures (day/night 18.5/16 degrees C) total nitrogen content was
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ducić Vladan
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039°C/year, as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years, December (43 years and February (49 years. The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60, the AMO in autumn (0.52 and the NAO in winter (0.51. For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49 and the NAO in winter (0.42. The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007
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Effects of thermal underwear on thermal and subjective responses in winter.
Choi, Jeong-Wha; Lee, Joo-Young; Kim, So-Young
2003-01-01
This study was conducted to obtain basic data in improving the health of Koreans, saving energy and protecting environments. This study investigated the effects of wearing thermal underwear for keeping warm in the office in winter where temperature is not as low as affecting work efficiency, on thermoregulatory responses and subjective sensations. In order to create an environment where every subject feels the same thermal sensation, two experimental conditions were selected through preliminary experiments: wearing thermal underwear in 18 degrees C air (18-condition) and not wearing thermal underwear in 23 degrees C air (23-condition). Six healthy male students participated in this study as experiment subjects. Measurement items included rectal temperature (T(re)), skin temperature (T(sk)), clothing microclimate temperature (T(cm)), thermal sensation and thermal comfort. The results are as follows: (1) T(re) of all subjects was maintained constant at 37.1 degrees C under both conditions, indicating no significant differences. (2) (T)(sk) under the 18-condition and the 23-condition were 32.9 degrees C and 33.7 degrees C, respectively, indicating a significant level of difference (pcomfortable under both conditions. It was found (T)(sk) decreased due to a drop in the skin temperature of hands and feet, and the subjects felt cooler wearing only one layer of normal thermal underwear at 18 degrees C. Yet, the thermal comfort level, T(re) and T(cm) of chest part under the 18-condition were the same as those under the 23-condition. These results show that the same level of comfort, T(re) and T(cm) can be maintained as that of an environment about 5 degrees C higher in the office in winter, by wearing one layer of thermal underwear. In this regard, this study suggests that lowering indoor temperature by wearing thermal underwear in winter can contribute to saving energy and improving health.
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Fungi regulate response of N2O production to warming and grazing in a Tibetan grassland
Zhong, Lei; Wang, Shiping; Xu, Xingliang; Wang, Yanfen; Rui, Yichao; Zhou, Xiaoqi; Shen, Qinhua; Wang, Jinzhi; Jiang, Lili; Luo, Caiyun; Gu, Tianbao; Ma, Wenchao; Chen, Guanyi
2018-03-01
Lack of understanding of the effects of warming and winter grazing on soil fungal contribution to nitrous oxide (N2O) production has limited our ability to predict N2O fluxes under changes in climate and land use management, because soil fungi play an important role in driving terrestrial N cycling. Here, we examined the effects of 10 years' warming and winter grazing on soil N2O emissions potential in an alpine meadow. Our results showed that soil bacteria and fungi contributed 46 % and 54 % to nitrification, and 37 % and 63 % to denitrification, respectively. Neither warming nor winter grazing affected the activity of enzymes responsible for overall nitrification and denitrification. However, warming significantly increased the enzyme activity of bacterial nitrification and denitrification to 53 % and 55 %, respectively. Warming significantly decreased enzyme activity of fungal nitrification and denitrification to 47 % and 45 %, respectively, while winter grazing had no such effect. We conclude that soil fungi could be the main source for N2O production potential in the Tibetan alpine grasslands. Warming and winter grazing may not affect the potential for soil N2O production potential, but climate warming can alter biotic pathways responsible for N2O production. These findings indicate that characterizing how fungal nitrification/denitrification contributes to N2O production, as well as how it responds to environmental and land use changes, can advance our understanding of N cycling. Therefore, our results provide some new insights about ecological controls on N2O production and lead to refine greenhouse gas flux models.
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Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca
2017-04-01
At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.
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Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.
2015-01-01
Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555
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Fernández-Montes, S.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Rodrigo, F. S.; García-Valero, J. A.; Montávez, J. P.
2017-04-01
Precipitation and surface temperature are interdependent variables, both as a response to atmospheric dynamics and due to intrinsic thermodynamic relationships and feedbacks between them. This study analyzes the covariability of seasonal temperature (T) and precipitation (P) across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) using regional climate paleosimulations for the period 1001-1990, driven by reconstructions of external forcings. Future climate (1990-2099) was simulated according to SRES scenarios A2 and B2. These simulations enable exploring, at high spatial resolution, robust and physically consistent relationships. In winter, positive P-T correlations dominate west-central IP (Pearson correlation coefficient ρ = + 0.43, for 1001-1990), due to prevalent cold-dry and warm-wet conditions, while this relationship weakens and become negative towards mountainous, northern and eastern regions. In autumn, negative correlations appear in similar regions as in winter, whereas for summer they extend also to the N/NW of the IP. In spring, the whole IP depicts significant negative correlations, strongest for eastern regions (ρ = - 0.51). This is due to prevalent frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes in these regions and seasons. At the temporal scale, regional correlation series between seasonal anomalies of temperature and precipitation (assessed in 31 years running windows in 1001-1990) show very large multidecadal variability. For winter and spring, periodicities of about 50-60 years arise. The frequency of warm-dry and cold-wet modes appears correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explaining mainly co-variability changes in spring. For winter and some regions in autumn, maximum and minimum P-T correlations appear in periods with enhanced meridional or easterly circulation (low or high pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean and Europe). In spring and summer, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation shows some fingerprint on the frequency of warm/cold modes. For
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Winter cooling in the northern Arabian Sea
Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)
PrasannaKumar, S.; Prasad, T.G.
forcing that leads to the observed high productivity during winter in the northern Arabian Sea. The weak northerly winds and increased solar insolation during the inter-monsoon period, led to the development of a highly stratified upper layer with warm sea...
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Microbial biomass dynamics dominate N cycle responses to warming in a sub-arctic peatland
Weedon, J. T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G. K.; van Bodegom, P. M.
2012-04-01
The balance of primary production and decomposition in sub-arctic peatlands may shift with climate change. Nitrogen availability will modulate this shift, but little is known about the drivers of soil nitrogen dynamics in these environments, and how they are influenced by rising soil temperatures. We used a long-term open top chamber warming experiment in Abisko, Sweden, to test for the interactive effects of spring warming, summer warming and winter snow addition on soil organic and inorganic nitrogen fluxes, potential activities of carbon and nitrogen cycle enzymes, and the structure of the soil-borne microbial communities. Summer warming increased the flux of soil organic nitrogen over the growing season, while simultaneously causing a seasonal decrease in microbial biomass, suggesting that N flux is driven by large late-season dieback of microbes. This change in N cycle dynamics was not reflected in any of the measured potential enzyme activities. Moreover, the soil microbial community structure was stable across treatments, suggesting non-specific microbial dieback. To further test whether the observed patterns were driven by direct temperature effects or indirect effects (via microbial biomass dynamics), we conducted follow-up controlled experiments in soil mesocosms. Experimental additions of dead microbial cells had stronger effects on N pool sizes and enzyme activities than either plant litter addition or a 5 °C alteration in incubation temperatures. Peat respiration was positively affected by both substrate addition and higher incubation temperatures, but the temperature-only effect was not sufficient to account for the increases in respiration observed in previous field experiments. We conclude that warming effects on peatland N cycling (and to some extent C cycling) are dominated by indirect effects, acting through alterations to the seasonal flux of microbe-derived organic matter. We propose that climate change models of soil carbon and nitrogen
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Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walsh, J.E.
1993-01-01
In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab
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Winter range expansion of a hummingbird is associated with urbanization and supplementary feeding
Wood, Eric M.
2017-01-01
Anthropogenic changes to the landscape and climate cause novel ecological and evolutionary pressures, leading to potentially dramatic changes in the distribution of biodiversity. Warm winter temperatures can shift species' distributions to regions that were previously uninhabitable. Further, urbanization and supplementary feeding may facilitate range expansions and potentially reduce migration tendency. Here we explore how these factors interact to cause non-uniform effects across a species's range. Using 17 years of data from the citizen science programme Project FeederWatch, we examined the relationships between urbanization, winter temperatures and the availability of supplementary food (i.e. artificial nectar) on the winter range expansion (more than 700 km northward in the past two decades) of Anna's hummingbirds (Calypte anna). We found that Anna's hummingbirds have colonized colder locations over time, were more likely to colonize sites with higher housing density and were more likely to visit feeders in the expanded range compared to the historical range. Additionally, their range expansion mirrored a corresponding increase over time in the tendency of people to provide nectar feeders in the expanded range. This work illustrates how humans may alter the distribution and potentially the migratory behaviour of species through landscape and resource modification. PMID:28381617
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Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity
Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.
2017-12-01
Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li, Xiangnan; Cai, Jian; Liu, Fulai
2014-01-01
Low temperature seriously depresses the growth of wheat through inhibition of photosynthesis, while earlier cold priming may enhance the tolerance of plants to subsequent low temperature stress. Here, winter wheat plants were firstly cold primed (5.2°C lower temperature than the ambient temperatu......-cellular antioxidant systems, depressing the oxidative burst in photosynthetic apparatus, hereby enhanced the tolerance to subsequent low temperature stress in winter wheat plants.......Low temperature seriously depresses the growth of wheat through inhibition of photosynthesis, while earlier cold priming may enhance the tolerance of plants to subsequent low temperature stress. Here, winter wheat plants were firstly cold primed (5.2°C lower temperature than the ambient temperature......, viz., 10.0°C) at the Zadoks growth stage 28 (i.e.re-greening stage, starting on 20th of March) for 7d, and after 14d of recovery the plants were subsequently subjected to a 5d low temperature stress (8.4°C lower than the ambient temperature, viz., 14.1°C) at the Zadoks growth stage 31 (i...
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Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.
Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen
2018-04-30
The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.
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Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York
Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.
2013-01-01
Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.
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de Bernardis, Ricardo Caio Gracco; Siaulys, Monica Maria; Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Mathias, Lígia Andrade Silva Telles
2016-01-01
Decrease in body temperature is common during general and regional anesthesia. Forced-air warming intraoperative during cesarean section under spinal anesthesia seems not able to prevent it. The hypothesis considers that active warming before the intraoperative period avoids temperature loss during cesarean. Forty healthy pregnant patients undergoing elective cesarean section with spinal anesthesia received active warming from a thermal gown in the preoperative care unit 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery (Go, n=20), or no active warming at any time (Ct, n=20). After induction of spinal anesthesia, the thermal gown was replaced over the chest and upper limbs and maintained throughout study. Room temperature, hemoglobin saturation, heart rate, arterial pressure, and tympanic body temperature were registered 30min before (baseline) spinal anesthesia, right after it (time zero) and every 15min thereafter. There was no difference for temperature at baseline, but they were significant throughout the study (p<0.0001; repeated measure ANCOVA). Tympanic temperature baseline was 36.6±0.3°C, measured 36.5±0.3°C at time zero and reached 36.1±0.2°C for gown group, while control group had baseline temperature of 36.4±0.4°C, measured 36.3±0.3°C at time zero and reached 35.4±0.4°C (F=32.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.86; p<0.001). Hemodynamics did not differ throughout the study for both groups of patients. Active warming 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery prevented a fall in body temperature in full-term pregnant women during elective cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
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Bernardis, Ricardo Caio Gracco de; Siaulys, Monica Maria; Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Mathias, Lígia Andrade Silva Telles
2016-01-01
Decrease in body temperature is common during general and regional anesthesia. Forced-air warming intraoperative during cesarean section under spinal anesthesia seems not able to prevent it. The hypothesis considers that active warming before the intraoperative period avoids temperature loss during cesarean. Forty healthy pregnant patients undergoing elective cesarean section with spinal anesthesia received active warming from a thermal gown in the preoperative care unit 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery (Go, n=20), or no active warming at any time (Ct, n=20). After induction of spinal anesthesia, the thermal gown was replaced over the chest and upper limbs and maintained throughout study. Room temperature, hemoglobin saturation, heart rate, arterial pressure, and tympanic body temperature were registered 30min before (baseline) spinal anesthesia, right after it (time zero) and every 15min thereafter. There was no difference for temperature at baseline, but they were significant throughout the study (p<0.0001; repeated measure ANCOVA). Tympanic temperature baseline was 36.6±0.3°C, measured 36.5±0.3°C at time zero and reached 36.1±0.2°C for gown group, while control group had baseline temperature of 36.4±0.4°C, measured 36.3±0.3°C at time zero and reached 35.4±0.4°C (F=32.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.86; p<0.001). Hemodynamics did not differ throughout the study for both groups of patients. Active warming 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery prevented a fall in body temperature in full-term pregnant women during elective cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.
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Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures
Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.
2018-03-01
A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.
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Zopf, Lydia M; Lazzari, Claudio R; Tichy, Harald
2014-03-01
Thermoreceptors provide animals with background information about the thermal environment, which is at least indirectly a prerequisite for thermoregulation and assists bloodsucking insects in the search for their host. Recordings from peg-in-pit sensilla and tapered hairs on the antennae of the bug Rhodnius prolixus revealed two physiologically different types of warm cells. Both types responded more strongly to temperature pulses produced by switching between two air streams at different constant temperatures than to infrared radiation pulses employed in still air. In addition, both warm cells were better able to discriminate small changes in air temperature than in infrared radiation. As convective and radiant heat determines the discharge, it is impossible for a single warm cell to signal the nature of the stimulus unequivocally. Individual responses are ambiguous, not with regard to temperature change, but with regard to its source. We argue that the bugs use mechanical flow information to differentiate between pulses of convective and radiant heat. However, if pulses of radiant heat occur together with a constant temperature air stream, the mechanical cues would not allow avoiding ambiguity that convective heat introduces into radiant heat stimulation. In this situation, the warm cell in the tapered hairs produced stronger responses than those in the peg-in-pit sensilla. The reversal in the excitability of the two types of warm cells provides a criterion by which to distinguish the combination of convective and radiant heat from the stimuli presented alone.
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Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. N. Zolotokrylin
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.
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The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan
Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.
2013-12-01
Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.
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Climatology of winter transition days for the contiguous USA, 1951-2007
Hondula, David M.; Davis, Robert E.
2011-01-01
In middle and high latitudes, climate change could impact the frequency and characteristics of frontal passages. Although transitions between air masses are significant features of the general circulation that influence human activities and other surface processes, they are much more difficult to objectively identify than single variables like temperature or even extreme events like fires, droughts, and floods. The recently developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) provides a fairly objective means of identifying frontal passages. In this research, we determine the specific meteorological patterns represented by the SSC's Transition category, a "catch-all" group that attempts to identify those days that cannot be characterized as a single, homogeneous air mass type. The result is a detailed transition climatology for the continental USA. We identify four subtypes of the Transition category based on intra-day sea level pressure change and dew point temperature change. Across the contiguous USA, most transition days are identified as cold fronts and warm fronts during the winter season. Among the two less common subtypes, transition days in which the dew point temperature and pressure both rise are more frequently observed across the western states, and days in which both variables fall are more frequently observed in coastal regions. The relative frequencies of wintertime warm and cold fronts have changed over the period 1951-2007. Relative cold front frequency has significantly increased in the Northeast and Midwest regions, and warm front frequencies have declined in the Midwest, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific Northwest regions. The overall shift toward cold fronts and away from warm fronts across the northern USA arises from a combination of an enhanced ridge over western North America and a northward shift of storm tracks throughout the mid-latitudes. These results are consistent with projections of climate change associated with elevated greenhouse gas
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Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cattiaux, Julien
2010-01-01
Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Pla, Sergi [Queen' s University, PEARL, Department of Biology, Kingston, ON (Canada); Catalan, Jordi [CSIC, CSIC-UB Limnology Group, Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB), Blanes (Spain)
2005-02-01
In the last decade, much effort was dedicated to the reconstruction of past climate at high temporal resolution. Here, we show the suitability of chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments for revealing continental climate variability when used in sensitive sites, such as those in high mountains. We demonstrate that altitude is a main factor influencing the present distribution of chrysophytes and develop a transfer function to evaluate the local ''altitude anomaly'' on a lake site throughout time. Based on our knowledge of chrysophyte ecology, the altitude anomalies are interpreted as winter/spring climate signatures. The method was applied to a Holocene record from a lake in the Pyrenees showing submillennial climatic variability in this northwestern Mediterranean zone. A warming trend was present from the early Holocene to 4 kyear BP. Comparison with pollen-based reconstructions of summer temperatures denoted a contrasting decrease in continentality between the two parts of the Holocene. Oscillations of 1 cycle per ca. 2,000 years appeared throughout the record. The warmest Holocene winters were recorded during the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD900 and 450 and the Roman Warm Period (2.7-2.4 kyear BP). Winters in the period AD1,050-1,175 were inferred to be as cold as in the Little Ice Age. The period between 3 and 7 kyear BPshowed lower intensity in the fluctuations than in early and late Holocene. The cold event, 8,200 years ago, appeared embedded in a warm fluctuation. Another cold fluctuation was recorded around 9 kyear BP, which is in agreement with Irish and Greenland records. (orig.)
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Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.
2018-01-01
Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perlwitz, J.; Graf, H.F.
1994-01-01
The associated anomaly patterns of the stratospheric geopotential height field and the tropospheric geopotential and temperature height fields of the northern hemisphere are determined applying the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). With this linear multivariate technique the coupled modes of variability of time series of two fields are isolated in the EOF space. The one data set is the 50 hPa geopotential field, the other set consists of different height fields of the tropospheric pressure levels (200 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa, 850 hPa) and the temperature of the 850 hPa pressure level. For the winter months (December, January, February) two natural coupled modes, a barotropic and a baroclinic one, of linear relationship between stratospheric and tropospheric circulation are found. The baroclinic mode describes a connection between the strength of the stratospheric cyclonic winter vortex and the tropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The corresponding temperature pattern for an anomalously strong stratospheric cyclonic vortex is characterized by positive temperature anomalies over higher latitudes of Eurasia. These 'Winter Warmings' are observed e.g. after violent volcanic eruptions. The barotropic mode is characterized by a zonal wave number one in the lower stratosphere and by a PNA-like pattern in the troposphere. It was shown by Labitzke and van Loon (1987) that this mode can be enhanced e.g. by El Ninos via the intensification of the Aleutian low. (orig.)
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mock, C.J.; McWaters, M. [Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, 29208 (United States); Mojzisek, J. [Department of Geography, University of Otago, P.O. Box 56, Dunedin, (New Zealand); Chenoweth, M. [Independent Scholar, 6816 Ducketts Lane, Elkridge, MD, 21075 (United States); Stahle, D.W. [Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, 72701 (United States)
2007-07-15
This study reconstructed the weather and its impacts on society for the winter of 1827-1828, focusing on the eastern United States. Data comprise of daily and monthly instrumental records, diaries with both daily and seasonal resolution, newspapers, fur trapper accounts, and tree-rings. Temperature anomalies were calculated and mapped based on the means during the 1820-1840 period to account for different fixed observation times. Precipitation frequencies provided direct comparisons of the 1827-1828 weather with modern climatic normals. Daily plots of temperature also reveal weather variations at daily timeframes. Results indicate that the eastern United States experienced strong positive temperature anomalies that are among the most extreme known in the historical record, particularly its large spatial extent. In contrast, historical evidence reveals strong negative temperature anomalies over northwestern North America, and positive temperature anomalies are evident for coastal Alaska. These temperature anomaly patterns sharply contrast to what is normally experienced during a warm El Nino event. Furthermore, results clearly describe remarkable climatic impacts in the Southeast U.S., including widespread blossoming of fruit trees in mid-winter (false spring) that led to a widespread severe killing frost in early April of 1828. Widespread positive precipitation frequency anomalies are also evident for much of the Southeast U.S., which also played a prominent role on winter vegetation growth. Other weather events and impacts include unusual opening of river traffic in winter in New England, severe flooding in the Mississippi River Valley, and heavy snowfall in northwestern North America.
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Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
V. Rath
2012-06-01
Full Text Available The investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories. However, there are still many open questions concerning the significance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last Glacial Maximum is still present in borehole temperature profiles. It is shown here that this signal also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries by producing errors in the determination of the steady state geothermal gradient. However, the impact on estimates of past temperature changes is weaker. For deeper boreholes, the curvature of the long-term signal is significant. A correction based on simple assumptions about glacial–interglacial temperature changes shows promising results, improving the extraction of millennial scale signals. The same procedure may help when comparing observed borehole temperature profiles with the results from numerical climate models.
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King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.
Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon
2008-02-19
Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.
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BLIZZARDS OF THE WINTER OF 2011-2012
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
ION MARINICĂ
2012-12-01
Full Text Available This paper analyzes the main blizzards from the winter of 2011-2012, caused by the radical weather change on January 25th, 2012. After the excessively droughty autumn of 2011 (Marinică, Marinică, 2012, the warm December on the whole was followed by a warm January in the first 25 days, and then a sudden change of the thermal time type occurred. The excessively cold interval January 26th- February 15th, 2012 caused many human victims in the entire country and at the level of the whole European continent, as well as significant material damages, this short episode of severe winter has been one of the coldest of the history of climatic observations. The analysis is a continuation of extended studies on the ever-growing climatic oscillations and risks, as a consequence of the climatic variability increase in Romania (Bogdan, Marinică, 2007, 2009.The paper is useful for a broad category of specialists interested in the climate and climatic risk.
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Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015
Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.
2018-03-01
We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.
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Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alireza, Shahabfar
2004-01-01
In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. A. Jamalainen
1958-01-01
Full Text Available The cause of damage from low-temperature parasitic fungi during overwintering was in the experiments with winter rye mainly Fusarium nivale (Fr. Ces., in the experiments with winter wheat both F. nivale and the Typhula spp. fungi, T. itoana Imai and T. idahoensis Remsb. The pentachloronitrobenzene compounds PCNB and the organic mercury compounds phenylmercuryacetate (PMA and phenylmercurysalicylate (PMS were effective against both the Fusarium and the Typhula fungi in the experiments in which the treatments of the seedlings had been performed in November under weather conditions normal for South Finland. The effect of treatments performed correspondingly earlier in October was slighter. In experiments made in South Finland in the winter 1955—56 and in the winter 1957—58, when low-temperature parasitic fungi appeared in abundance, the increases in yield due to treatment of the seedlings with PCNB and with the mercury compounds PMA and PMS performed in November were very considerable; winter rye (7 tests 12—122 per cent, winter wheat (4 tests 31—735 per cent, and winter barley (one test 124 per cent. – In the experiments made in 1956—57 in South Finland no increase in yield was obtained through treatment of the seedlings because low-temperature fungi did not appear. The mercury compounds PMA and PMS when applied on the stands in autumn were more effective against low-temperature parasitic fungi on winter cereals than the PCNB preparations. The effect of zineb and hexachloronitrobenzene (HCNB preparations in controlling low-temperature parasitic fungi on winter cereals by treating the stands in autumn was found to be much slighter than the effect of PCNB and of the organic mercury fungicides. The amount of active ingredient in the PCNB preparations was in most experiments 5 kg per hectare. In the two PMA preparations used in the experiments the amount of active ingredient was 125 and 425 kg per hectare, the corresponding amounts of Hg
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Buchner, Othmar; Neuner, Gilbert
2011-11-01
Winter frost resistance (WFR), midwinter frost hardening and frost dehardening potential of Pinus cembra L. were determined in situ by means of a novel low-temperature freezing system at the alpine timberline ecotone (1950 m a.s.l., Mt Patscherkofel, Innsbruck, Austria). In situ liquid nitrogen (LN₂)-quenching experiments should check whether maximum WFR of P. cembra belonging to the frost hardiest conifer group, being classified in US Department of Agriculture climatic zone 1, suffices to survive dipping into LN₂ (-196 °C). Viability was assessed in a field re-growth test. Maximum in situ WFR (LT₅₀) of leaves was frost hardening treatment (12 days at -20 °C followed by 3 days at -50 °C) to induce maximum WFR. Temperature treatments applied in the field significantly affected the actual WFR. In January a frost hardening treatment (21 days at -20 °C) led to a significant increase of WFR (buds: -62 °C to frost dehardening (buds: -32.6 °C to -10.2 °C; leaves: -32.7 to -16.4 °C) followed by significantly earlier bud swelling and burst in late winter. Strikingly, both temperature treatments, either increased air temperature (+10.1 °C) or increased soil temperature (+6.5 °C), were similarly effective. This high readiness to frost harden and deharden in winter in the field must be considered to be of great significance for future winter survival of P. cembra. Determination of WFR in field re-growth tests appears to be a valuable tool for critically judging estimates of WFR obtained on detached twigs in an ecological context.
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Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming
Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.
2017-12-01
Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.
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Wechsung, Frank; Wechsung, Maximilian
2016-11-01
The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.
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Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.
1990-01-01
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete
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Worldwide surface temperature trends since the mid-19th century
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parker, D.E.; Folland, C.K.
1991-01-01
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the period 1856 to the present have been corrected to compensate for the use of uninsulated buckets prior to the early 1940s. Trends in the corrected SST are consistent with trends in independently corrected nighttime marine air temperatures (NMAT). Global-scale patterns of variation of annual anomalies of SST and NMAT, as revealed by the first three covariance eigenvectors, are also in close agreement. The corrected SST anomalies are also compared with those of nearby coastal and island land air temperatures. Global-scale agreement is good except in the early 20th century when the land data were relatively warm by up to 0.2 C. Proposed causes are the siting of thermometers in open-sided thatched sheds in tropical regions at that time, along with a marked tendency to warm westerly atmospheric circulation over Europe in winter. Combined fields of SST and land air temperature are presented. The relative overall coldness of the late 19th century land air temperatures appears to have arisen from inner-continental and high-latitude regions, especially in winter. Combined fields do not yield full global coverage even in the 1980s, so satellite-based SST data need to be blended carefully with the ship-based observations if monitoring of global climate is to be complete. 32 refs.; 16 figs
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Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models
Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio
2017-04-01
The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.
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Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture
Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, van Geert Jan
2018-01-01
The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role
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Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao
2017-12-01
The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.
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Soil warming for utilization and dissipation of waste heat in Pennsylvania
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
DeWalle, D.R.; Chapura, A.M. Jr.
1978-01-01
The feasibility of using soil warming for utilization and dissipation of reject heat from power plants was demonstrated in a year-long test operation of a field prototype in Pennsylvania. A parallel network of 5-mm-diam polyethylene pipes was buried at a 0.3-m depth and with 0.6-m spacing in the soil covering a 15- x 60-m area to convey hot water simulating condenser cooling water from a power plant. Crop response to the heated soil varied: Snap beans and warm season forage crops such as sudangrass responded with increased yields, while cool season forage crops experienced decreased yields. Winter wheat yields were also increased, but winter barley was winter-killed due to delayed development of cold tolerance in the warm soil. Heat dissipation from the buried pipes was primarily by thermal conduction to the soil surface. Rates of heat loss from the buried pipes were most accurately predicted using an equation that included an explicit term for heat conduction below the pipes. Estimated soil warming land area necessary to dissipate all the reject heat from a 33% efficiency, 1500-MW electrical power plant based on minimum measured summer heat loss rates was 76 km 2 compared to the economic optimum of 18.2 km 2 determined as the least-cost system
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Marshall, Paul W M; Cross, Rebecca; Lovell, Ric
2015-12-01
This study examined changes in muscle temperature, electrically evoked muscle contractile properties, and voluntary power before and after a soccer specific active warm-up and subsequent rest period. Ten amateur soccer players performed two experimental sessions that involved performance of a modified FIFA 11+ soccer specific warm-up, followed by a 12.5-min rest period where participants were required to wear either normal clothing or a passive electrical heating garment was applied to the upper thigh muscles. Assessments around the warm-up and cool-down included measures of maximal torque, rate of torque development, muscle temperature (Tm), and electrically evoked measures of quadriceps contractile function. Tm was increased after the warm-up by 3.2 ± 0.7°C (P warm-up between 20% and 30% (P warm-up did not effect variables measured. While Tm was reduced by 1.4 ± 0.4°C after the rest period (P warm-up levels. Voluntary and evoked rate of torque development remained elevated from pre warm-up levels at the end of the cool-down (P warm-up elevated muscle temperature by 3.2°C and was associated with concomitant increases of between 20% and 30% in voluntary rate of torque development, which seems explained by elevations in rate-dependent measures of intrinsic muscle contractile function. Application of a passive heating garment did not attenuate declines in muscle temperature during a 12.5-min rest period. © 2015 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Physiological Society and The Physiological Society.
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Effect of Recent Sea Surface Temperature Trends on the Arctic Stratospheric Vortex
Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Oman, Luke; Hurwitz, Margaret
2015-01-01
The springtime Arctic polar vortex has cooled significantly over the satellite era, with consequences for ozone concentrations in the springtime transition season. The causes of this cooling trend are deduced by using comprehensive chemistry-climate model experiments. Approximately half of the satellite era early springtime cooling trend in the Arctic lower stratosphere was caused by changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). An ensemble of experiments forced only by changing SSTs is compared to an ensemble of experiments in which both the observed SSTs and chemically- and radiatively-active trace species are changing. By comparing the two ensembles, it is shown that warming of Indian Ocean, North Pacific, and North Atlantic SSTs, and cooling of the tropical Pacific, have strongly contributed to recent polar stratospheric cooling in late winter and early spring, and to a weak polar stratospheric warming in early winter. When concentrations of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases are fixed, polar ozone concentrations show a small but robust decline due to changing SSTs. Ozone changes are magnified in the presence of changing gas concentrations. The stratospheric changes can be understood by examining the tropospheric height and heat flux anomalies generated by the anomalous SSTs. Finally, recent SST changes have contributed to a decrease in the frequency of late winter stratospheric sudden warmings.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Yanming; Wang, Youjun; Zhong, Ke [School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Liu, Jiaping [School of Architecture, Xi' an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi' an 710055 (China)
2010-12-15
Energy consumption is an important issue in China. In heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, more and more commercial buildings use air-to-air heat recovery ventilators as energy saving units for recovering heat from the exhaust air in ventilation systems in current years. In the present paper, critical temperatures of air-to-air heat recovery systems for supermarkets in winter are recommended and discussed for the four cities in different climate zones of China. The analysis shows that the temperature of fresh air in winter can be categorized into three regions, i.e., recovery region, transition region and impermissible recovery region. The results also indicate that the latent heat recovery is not suitable for ventilation energy savings in supermarkets in winter. Meanwhile, the applicability of sensible heat recovery in supermarkets depends on outdoor climate and fresh air flow rate. If a variable rotational speed fan is used to introduce fresh air into the building, heat recovery does always function as planned in winter for all the selected cities except Guangzhou, and most values of the COP are much higher than 2.5. Otherwise, there is the risk of negative impact on building energy savings in all cities except Harbin. (author)
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How warm days increase belief in global warming
Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.
2014-02-01
Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.
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Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012
Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio
2018-02-01
This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.
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Impact of cool versus warm temperatures on gestation in the aspic viper (Vipera aspis).
Michel, Catherine Louise; Pastore, Jean-Henri; Bonnet, Xavier
2013-07-01
Previous experimental data suggested that digestion and growth rates are not impaired under cool constant temperature (23°C) in a viviparous snake (Vipera aspis). These results challenged the widespread notion that both elevated temperatures (e.g. 30°C) and temperature fluctuations are required for digestion and growth in temperate climate reptiles. Here, we investigated the impact of constant cool temperatures on another physiological performance that is crucial to population persistence: gestation. At the time when reproductive females were midway through vitellogenesis, we placed ten reproductive and two non-reproductive female aspic vipers at each of two contrasted constant temperature conditions: cool (23°C) versus warm (28°C). Sixty percent of the females placed at 28°C gave birth to healthy offspring, suggesting that constant warm body temperatures were compatible with normal offspring production. Conversely, none of the cool females gave birth to healthy offspring. A blister disease affected exclusively cool pregnant females. Apparently, the combination of cool temperatures plus gestation was too challenging for such females. Our results suggest that reproduction is more thermally sensitive than digestion or growth, indeed gestation faltered under moderately cool thermal constraints. This sensitivity could be a crucial factor determining the capacity of this species to colonize different habitats. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M
2015-09-01
Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.
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Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance
Bergjord Olsen, A.K.; Persson, T.; Wit, de A.; Nkurunziza, L.; Sindhøj, E.; Eckersten, H.
2018-01-01
Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this
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Allmark, Peter; Tod, Angela M
2014-03-01
Nudges are interventions that aim to change people's behaviour through changing the environment in which they choose rather than appealing to their reasoning. Nudges have been proposed as of possible use in relation to health-related behaviour. However, nudges have been criticized as ethically dubious because they bypass peoples reasoning and (anyway) are of little help in relation to affecting ill-health that results from social determinants, such as poverty. Reducing the rate of excess winter deaths (EWDs) is a public health priority; however, EWD seems clearly to be socially determined such that nudges arguably have little role. This article defends two claims: (i) nudges could have a place in tackling even the heavily socially determined problem of EWD. We draw on evidence from an empirical study, the Keeping Warm in Later Life Project (KWILLT), to argue that in some cases the risk of cold is within the person's control to some extent such that environmental modifications to influence behaviour such as nudges are possible. (ii) Some uses of behavioural insights in the form of nudges are acceptable, including some in the area of EWD. We suggest a question-based framework by which to judge the ethical acceptability of nudges.
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Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng
2018-01-01
This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.
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Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming
Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.
2018-05-01
Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a
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Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming
Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.
2018-01-01
Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for
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Winter nightime ion temperatures and energetic electrons from 0go 6 plasma measurements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sanatani, S.; Breig, E.L.
1981-01-01
This paper presents and discusses ion temperature and suprathermal electron flux data acquired with the retarding potential analyzer on board the ogo 6 satellite when it was in solar eclipse. Attention is directed to measurements in the 400- to 800-km height interval between midnight and predawn in the northern winter nonpolar ionosphere. Statistical analysis of data recorded during a 1-month time span permits a decoupling of horizontal and altitude effects. A distinct longitudinal variation is observed for ion temperature above 500 km, with a significant relative enhancement over the western North Altantic Altitude distributions of ion temperature are compatible with Millstone Hill profiles within the common region of this enhancement. Large fluxes of energetic electrons are observed and extend to mush lower geomagnetic latitudes in the same longitude sector. Both a direct correlation in magnitude and a strong similarity in spatial extent are demonstrated for these ion temperature and electron flux data. The location of the limiting low-altitude boundary for observation of the electron fluxes is variable, dependent on local time and season as well as longitude. Variations in this boundary are found to be consistent with a calculated conjugate solar zenith angle of 99 0 +- 2 0 describing photoproduction of energetic electrons in the southern hemisphere. The ogo 6 data are considered to be indicative of an energy source originating in the sunlit summer hemisphere and providing heat via transport of photoelectrons to a broad but preferential segment of the winter nighttime mid-latitude ionosphere. Ions at other longitudes are without access to this energy source and cool to near the neutral temperature at heights to above 800 km inthe predawn hours
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Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E
2014-01-01
Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sergei Katsev
Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.
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Caicedo, J. A.; Uman, M. A.; Pilkey, J. T.
2018-01-01
We present the first lightning evolution studies, via the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and radar, performed in North Central Florida. Parts of three winter/spring frontal storms (cold season) and two complete summer (warm season) multicell storms are studied. Storm parameters measured are as follows: total number of flashes, flash-type classification, first flashes, flash initiation altitude, flash initiation power, flash rate (flashes per minute), charge structure, altitude and temperature ranges of the inferred charge regions, atmospheric isotherm altitude, radar base reflectivity (dBZ), and radar echo tops (EET). Several differences were found between summer multicell and winter/spring frontal storms in North Central Florida: (1) in winter/spring storms, the range of altitudes that all charge regions occupy is up to 1 km lower in altitude than in summer storms, as are the 0°C, -10°C, and -20°C isotherms; (2) lightning activity in summer storms is highly correlated with changes in radar signatures, in particular, echo tops; and (3) the LMA average initiation power of all flash types in winter/frontal storms is about an order of magnitude larger than that for summer storms. In relation to storms in other geographical locations, North Central Florida seasonal storms were found to have similarities in most parameters studied with a few differences, examples in Florida being (1) colder initiation altitudes for intracloud flashes, (2) charge regions occupying larger ranges of atmospheric temperatures, and (3) winter/spring frontal storms not having much lightning activity in the stratiform region.
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Coupled Effects of Climatic and Socio-economic Factors on Winter Cropping in India
Jain, M.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.
2015-12-01
India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable regions in terms of agricultural sensitivity to future climate changes. Approximately 69% of India's population is rural, and over 55% of the working population relies on agriculture for sustenance and livelihoods. Indian smallholder farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland represent 78% of the total Indian farmers and produce 41% of the country's food crops. These smallholder farmers are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes due to limited access to technology, infrastructure, markets, and institutional or financial support in the case of adverse climatic events. Baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability will provide useful information for regional-level, and eventually state- and national-level, strategies and policies that promote adaption to climate variability. We use a decade of remote sensing analysis of cropping patterns and climatic factors along with census data for irrigation and demographic factors to understand winter cropping trajectories across agro-ecological zones in India. Findings from multiple agro-ecological zones indicate that there are three primary trajectories in winter cropping in India - increasing, fluctuating, and decreasing. In the Central Indian Highlands, for example, the most dominant trend is that of fluctuating cropped area, ranging between ~37,300 km2 in 2010 and ~21,100 km2 in 2013, which is associated with village-level access to irrigation and local labor dynamics. Clay soil type and increasing irrigation coverage were associated with intensification. Yet, suitable soil type and access to irrigation do not reduce vulnerability to high daytime temperatures that is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
White, C.R.; Boertmann, David; Gremillet, D.
2011-01-01
waters. We show that rates of population change of Cormorant colonies around Disko Bay, Greenland, are positively correlated with sea surface temperature, suggesting that they may benefit from a warming Arctic. However, although Cormorant populations may increase in response to Arctic warming, the extent...... of expansion of their winter range may ultimately be limited by other factors, such as sensory constraints on foraging behaviour during long Arctic nights....
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Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.
1993-12-01
The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)
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Volcanos and el Nino - signal separation in Winter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirchner, I.; Graf, H.F.
1993-01-01
The aim of this study is the detection of climate signals following violent volcanic eruptions in relation to those forced by El Nino during winter in higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere. The applied statistical methods are a combination of the local t-test statistics and signal detection methods based on Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). The observed effect of local cooling due to the volcanic reduction of shortwave radiation over large land areas (like Asia) in subtropical regions, the observed advective warming over Eurasia and the advective cooling over Greenland is well simulated in the model. The radiative cooling near the surface is important for the volcano signal in the subtropics, but it is only weak in high latitudes during winter. The local anomalies in the El Nino forcing region in the tropics, and the warming over North America in middle and high latitudes are simulated as observed. The combination of high stratospheric aerosol loading and El Nino leads to a climate perturbation stronger than for forcing with El Nino or stratospheric aerosol alone. Over Europe, generally the volcanic signal dominates, and in the Pacific region the El Nino forcing determines the observed and the simulated anomalies in winter. (orig./KW)
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Methods of patient warming during abdominal surgery.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Shao
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Keeping abdominal surgery patients warm is common and warming methods are needed in power outages during natural disasters. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of low-cost, low-power warming methods for maintaining normothermia in abdominal surgery patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 160 scheduled for elective abdominal surgery were included in this prospective clinical study. Five warming methods were applied: heated blood transfusion/fluid infusion vs. unheated; wrapping patients vs. not wrapping; applying moist dressings, heated or not; surgical field rinse heated or not; and applying heating blankets or not. Patients' nasopharyngeal and rectal temperatures were recorded to evaluate warming efficacy. Significant differences were found in mean temperatures of warmed patients compared to those not warmed. RESULTS: When we compared temperatures of abdominal surgery patient groups receiving three specific warming methods with temperatures of control groups not receiving these methods, significant differences were revealed in temperatures maintained during the surgeries between the warmed groups and controls. DISCUSSION: The value of maintaining normothermia in patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia is accepted. Three effective economical and practically applicable warming methods are combined body wrapping and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and warmed surgical rinse fluid, with or without heating blanket. These methods are practically applicable when low-cost method is indeed needed.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
John F Grider
Full Text Available Across the entire distribution of a species, populations may have variable responses to environmental perturbations. Many bat species experience mortality in large portions of their range during hibernation and along migratory paths to and from wintering grounds, from White-nose syndrome (WNS and wind energy development, respectively. In some areas, warm temperatures may allow bats to remain active through winter, thus decreasing their susceptibility to WNS and/or mortality associated with migration to wintering grounds. These areas could act as a refugia and be important for the persistence of local populations. To determine if warmer temperatures affect bat activity, we compared year-round activity of bat populations in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont of North Carolina, USA, two regions that differ in winter temperature. We established six recording stations, four along a 295-kilometer north-south transect in the Coastal Plain, and two in the Piedmont of North Carolina. We recorded bat activity over two years. We supplemented our recordings with mist-net data. Although bat activity was lower during winter at all sites, the odds of recording a bat during winter were higher at Coastal Plain sites when compared with Piedmont sites. Further, bats in the Piedmont had a lower level of winter activity compared to summer activity than bats in the Coastal Plain that had more similar levels of activity in the winter and summer. We found high bat species richness on the Coastal Plain in winter, with winter-active species including those known to hibernate throughout most of their range and others known to be long distance migrants. In particular, two species impacted by WNS, the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis and tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus, were present year round in the Coastal Plain. The tricolored bat was also present year-round in the Piedmont. In the Coastal Plain, the long distance migratory hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus
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Grider, John F; Larsen, Angela L; Homyack, Jessica A; Kalcounis-Rueppell, Matina C
2016-01-01
Across the entire distribution of a species, populations may have variable responses to environmental perturbations. Many bat species experience mortality in large portions of their range during hibernation and along migratory paths to and from wintering grounds, from White-nose syndrome (WNS) and wind energy development, respectively. In some areas, warm temperatures may allow bats to remain active through winter, thus decreasing their susceptibility to WNS and/or mortality associated with migration to wintering grounds. These areas could act as a refugia and be important for the persistence of local populations. To determine if warmer temperatures affect bat activity, we compared year-round activity of bat populations in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont of North Carolina, USA, two regions that differ in winter temperature. We established six recording stations, four along a 295-kilometer north-south transect in the Coastal Plain, and two in the Piedmont of North Carolina. We recorded bat activity over two years. We supplemented our recordings with mist-net data. Although bat activity was lower during winter at all sites, the odds of recording a bat during winter were higher at Coastal Plain sites when compared with Piedmont sites. Further, bats in the Piedmont had a lower level of winter activity compared to summer activity than bats in the Coastal Plain that had more similar levels of activity in the winter and summer. We found high bat species richness on the Coastal Plain in winter, with winter-active species including those known to hibernate throughout most of their range and others known to be long distance migrants. In particular, two species impacted by WNS, the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) and tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), were present year round in the Coastal Plain. The tricolored bat was also present year-round in the Piedmont. In the Coastal Plain, the long distance migratory hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) was active in the
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Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter
Robock, A.
2013-12-01
I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment
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Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.
2018-01-01
We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.
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Reindeer (Rangifer tarandus and climate change: Importance of winter forage
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thrine Moen Heggberget
2002-06-01
Full Text Available As a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change is predicted to be particularly pronounced, although regionally variable, in the vast arctic, sub-arctic and alpine tundra areas of the northern hemisphere. Here, we review winter foraging conditions for reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus living in these areas, and consider diet, forage quality and distribution, accessibility due to snow variation, and effects of snow condition on reindeer and caribou populations. Finally, we hypothesise how global warming may affect wild mountain reindeer herds in South Norway. Energy-rich lichens often dominate reindeer and caribou diets. The animals also prefer lichens, and their productivity has been shown to be higher on lichen-rich than on lichen-poor ranges. Nevertheless, this energy source appears to be neither sufficient as winter diet for reindeer or caribou (at least for pregnant females nor necessary. Some reindeer and caribou populations seem to be better adapted to a non-lichen winter diet, e.g. by a larger alimentary tract. Shrubs appear to be the most common alternative winter forage, while some grasses appear to represent a good, nutritionally-balanced winter diet. Reindeer/caribou make good use of a wide variety of plants in winter, including dead and dry parts that are digested more than expected based on their fibre content. The diversity of winter forage is probably important for the mineral content of the diet. A lichen-dominated winter diet may be deficient in essential dietary elements, e.g. minerals. Sodium in particular may be marginal in inland winter ranges. Our review indicates that most Rangifer populations with lichen-dominated winter diets are either periodically or continuously heavily harvested by humans or predators. However, when population size is mainly limited by food, accessible lichen resources are often depleted. Plant studies simulating climatic change indicate that a warmer, wetter
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G. Richard Strimbeck; Trygve D. Kjellsen; Paul G. Schaberg; Paula F. Murakami
2007-01-01
Because they maintain green foliage throughout the winter season, evergreen conifers may face special physiological challenges in a warming world. We assessed the midwinter low-temperature (LT) tolerance of foliage from eight temperate and boreal species in each of the genera Abies, Picea, and Pinus growing in an arboretum in...
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Extreme thermal episodes analyzed with MODIS products during the boreal winter (2000-2016
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Gomis-Cebolla
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The beginning of the XXI century is characterized by the intensification of the existing global warming situation and for a series of drastic global meteorological events. Particularly, during the winter season a series of extreme temperature episodes affecting large areas of the northern hemisphere have been produced. In this paper, these episodes are studied by analyzing the thermal anomalies spatial distribution and temporal evolution in the period 2001-2016 from Land Surface Temperature (LST products obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensor. The study regions considered in this investigation are eight of the northern hemisphere. The results obtained for the heating and cooling episodes do not reveal an important discrepancy, however, an increase in the area affected by heating versus cooling is observed.
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Nyssanbayeva, Aiman S.; Cherednichenko, Alexandr V.; Cherednichenko, Vladimir S.; Abayev, Nurlan N.; Madibekov, Azamat S.
2018-03-01
The territory of West Kazakhstan is an intensively developing region. The main oil and gas fields are concentrated there. In addition, this region is well-known as a region of nomad cattle breeding. Both of industry and agriculture demand a lot of employees, working in the open air in wintertime. Severe winter conditions, primary very low temperatures, and strong winds characterize the region. In this work, we calculated and analyzed the spatial and temporal distributions of effective temperatures in the region and their dynamics due to the global warming in the last decades. To calculate the equivalent temperature (WCET) was used the method of OFCM 2003. Nowadays, it is known as a common method for similar studies. It was shown that in the observed region, WCET is significantly lower than the ambient temperature. Repeatability of WCET, corresponding to «increasing risk», «high risk» is high in the main part of the region. Global warming in the region results in returning extremely high temperatures of the air, decreasing repeatability of the average gradation of WCET approximately on 4%, but there is no any visible changing repeatability of extreme WCET. Obtained results can be used for planning any construction work in the open air and agriculture branches.
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Bleck, R.; Sun, S.; Benjamin, S.; Brown, J. M.
2017-12-01
Two- to four-week predictions of stratospheric sudden warming events during the winter seasons of 1999-2014, carried out with a high-resolution icosahedral NWP model using potential temperature as vertical coordinate, are inspected for commonalities in the evolution of both minor and major warmings. Emphasis is on the evolution of the potential vorticity field at different levels in the stratosphere, as well as on the sign and magnitude of the vertical component of the Eliassen-Palm flux vector suggestive of wave forcing in either direction. Material is presented shedding light on the skill of the model (FIM, developed at NOAA/ESRL) in predicting stratospheric warmings generally 2 weeks in advance. With an icosahedral grid ideally suited for studying polar processes, and a vertical coordinate faithfully reproducing details in the evolution of the potential vorticity and EP flux vector fields, FIM is found to be a good tool for investigating the SSW mechanism.
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Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B. [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Forestry
1998-12-31
The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat.
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Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.
1998-01-01
The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat
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Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lei Zhang
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.
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Biogeochemical Impact of Snow Cover and Cyclonic Intrusions on the Winter Weddell Sea Ice Pack
Tison, J.-L.; Schwegmann, S.; Dieckmann, G.; Rintala, J.-M.; Meyer, H.; Moreau, S.; Vancoppenolle, M.; Nomura, D.; Engberg, S.; Blomster, L. J.; Hendrickx, S.; Uhlig, C.; Luhtanen, A.-M.; de Jong, J.; Janssens, J.; Carnat, G.; Zhou, J.; Delille, B.
2017-12-01
Sea ice is a dynamic biogeochemical reactor and a double interface actively interacting with both the atmosphere and the ocean. However, proper understanding of its annual impact on exchanges, and therefore potentially on the climate, notably suffer from the paucity of autumnal and winter data sets. Here we present the results of physical and biogeochemical investigations on winter Antarctic pack ice in the Weddell Sea (R. V. Polarstern AWECS cruise, June-August 2013) which are compared with those from two similar studies conducted in the area in 1986 and 1992. The winter 2013 was characterized by a warm sea ice cover due to the combined effects of deep snow and frequent warm cyclones events penetrating southward from the open Southern Ocean. These conditions were favorable to high ice permeability and cyclic events of brine movements within the sea ice cover (brine tubes), favoring relatively high chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. We discuss the timing of this algal activity showing that arguments can be presented in favor of continued activity during the winter due to the specific physical conditions. Large-scale sea ice model simulations also suggest a context of increasingly deep snow, warm ice, and large brine fractions across the three observational years, despite the fact that the model is forced with a snowfall climatology. This lends support to the claim that more severe Antarctic sea ice conditions, characterized by a longer ice season, thicker, and more concentrated ice are sufficient to increase the snow depth and, somehow counterintuitively, to warm the ice.
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Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.
Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara
2017-06-06
In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.
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Inaba, Ryoichi; Kurokawa, Junichi; Mirbod, Seyed Mohammad
2009-07-01
To help making comfortable workplaces and to prevent health disorders induced by the exposure to moderate cold in two different groups of out-door workers, we conducted a survey to compare subjective symptoms and cold prevention measures in winter between traffic control workers and construction workers. The subjects of this study were 98 male traffic control workers and 149 male workers engaged in building construction. Work loads of traffic control workers and construction workers were estimated at RMR1-2 and RMR2-4, respectively. All subjects were asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire covering age, occupational career, working figure, present illness, past history of diseases, individual preventive measures to the cold, subjective symptoms in the winter (43 items) and subjective symptoms occurred during daytime working in the winter (6 items). In two parts of the construction workplaces (the place where a morning assembly was held and on the 7th floor of the construction site) dry bulb, wet bulb and globe temperatures were measured in January. Windchill Index (kcal/cm,(2) x h) was calculated by the measured dry bulb temperature and wind velocity. Mean values of dry bulb temperature between 9:00 and 16:30 in the place where a morning assembly was held for three days were between 4.8 +/- 1.2 degrees C at 9:00 am and 9.3 +/- 1.1 degrees C at noon. Mean values of Windchill Index in the place where a morning assembly was held were between 490.8+/-23.9 kcal/cm(2) x h at 9:30 am and 608.2+/-47.3 kcal/cm(2) x h at 2:30 pm. Occupational career, monthly working days, daily working hours, one way commuting hours, and daily smoking numbers of the traffic control workers were significantly shorter than the construction workers (pconstruction workers (0.7%). Prevalence of wearing a warm underwear, body warmer, warm trousers, underpants, warm socks, shoe warmer and muffler in the traffic control workers were significantly higher than the construction workers. The
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Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.
Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R
2018-05-13
Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of
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Sadakata, Mieko; Yamada, Yoshiaki
2007-06-01
To examine the disease state of cold constitution, physiological measurements of the foot were conducted by investigating thermal sensations under an environmental condition of 25 degrees C-26 degrees C (neutral temperature) in 29 young women with and without cold constitution. The subjects were classified into 3 groups according to their experiences with cold constitution: cold constitution, intermediate, and normal groups. Foot skin temperature was measured by thermography. Thermal sensations were measured on the dorsum of the left foot using a thermal stimulator. Cold and warm spots on the dorsum of the right foot were ascertained. Thermal stimulation was delivered by a copper probe. No significant differences in foot skin temperature among these 3 groups were identified as measured in a laboratory under neutral temperature conditions. However, the mean warm sensation threshold was +6.3+/-1.09 degrees C (mean+/-SEM) for the cold constitution group (n=14), +3.4+/-2.10 degrees C (mean+/-SEM) for the intermediate group (n=7), and -0.25+/-1.96 degrees C (mean+/-SEM) for the normal group (n=6). The difference was significant between the cold constitution and normal groups. No significant differences among the 3 groups were found in the cold sensation threshold. This may be attributable to the distribution of thermal receptors and to chronically reduced blood flow in subcutaneous tissues, where the skin temperature receptors responsible for temperature sensation are located.
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Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures
Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Nielsen, Jon E.; Waugh, Darryn; Pawson, Steven
2004-01-01
The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.
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Climate warming could increase recruitment success in glacier foreland plants.
Mondoni, Andrea; Pedrini, Simone; Bernareggi, Giulietta; Rossi, Graziano; Abeli, Thomas; Probert, Robin J; Ghitti, Michele; Bonomi, Costantino; Orsenigo, Simone
2015-11-01
Glacier foreland plants are highly threatened by global warming. Regeneration from seeds on deglaciated terrain will be crucial for successful migration and survival of these species, and hence a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on seedling recruitment is urgently needed to predict future plant persistence in these environments. This study presents the first field evidence of the impact of climate change on recruitment success of glacier foreland plants. Seeds of eight foreland species were sown on a foreland site at 2500 m a.s.l., and at a site 400 m lower in altitude to simulate a 2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature. Soil from the site of origin was used to reproduce the natural germination substrate. Recruitment success, temperature and water potential were monitored for 2 years. The response of seed germination to warming was further investigated in the laboratory. At the glacier foreland site, seedling emergence was low (0 to approx. 40 %) and occurred in summer in all species after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, at the warmer site there was a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence (13-35 % higher) in all species except two. Survival and establishment was possible for 60-75 % of autumn-emerged seedlings and was generally greater under warmer conditions. Early snowmelt in spring caused the main ecological factors enhancing the recruitment success. The results suggest that warming will influence the recruitment of glacier foreland species primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, which increases seedling establishment and results in a greater resistance to summer drought and winter extremes. The changes in recruitment success observed here imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate, but overall success may be dependent on interactions with shifts in other components of the
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The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, c/o University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, Victoria, BC (Canada)
2011-12-15
The result in climate simulations, supported in the observation-based record, is that the ratio {phi}= T{sub L}/T{sub O} of land-average to ocean-average temperature change is greater than one and varies comparatively modestly as climate changes. This is investigated in results from the CMIP3 data archive of climate change simulations following the B1 and more strongly forced A1B scenarios as well as in 2 x CO{sub 2} integrations. The associated precipitation ratio {psi}=P{sub L}/P{sub O} is also considered briefly. The behaviour of {phi} is analyzed in terms of a forcing-response view of the energy balance over land and ocean regions. The analysis indicates that the value of {phi}> 1 is not maintained by separate local balances over land and ocean but by an energetic balance that also involves a change in transport between the regions. The transport change does not restrain the land warming by exporting energy to the ocean region but, rather, the reverse. The anomalous transport is from the ocean to the land region even though the ocean warms less than the land does. Feedbacks in the ocean region, especially in the equatorial Pacific, do not sufficiently counteract the forcing and the result is an excess of energy that is transported to the land. The land warms in order to radiate away both the energy from the forcing over land but also the extra energy imported from the ocean region, thereby maintaining {phi} > 1. This situation can be understood to parallel the SST-forced case in model studies where {phi} > 1 despite the forcing being confined to the ocean area. The climate system is effective in redistributing forcing so that it is the local feedbacks, rather than the pattern of the forcing, that determine the temperature response. Land and ocean averaged quantities and budgets behave in a consistent manner to provide a simplified representation of the changes in temperature and energetic processes that are occurring. The geographical distributions of the terms
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Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf
Shapiro, G. I.; Wobus, F.; Aleynik, D. L.
2011-02-01
Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW) on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature as well as their relations to physical parameters of both shelf and deep-sea waters. First, large data sets of in-situ observations over the 20th century are compiled into high-resolution monthly climatology at different depth levels. Then, the temperature anomalies from the climatic mean are calculated and aggregated into spatial compartments and seasonal bins to reveal temporal evolution of the BSW. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water body between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal) which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season (May-November) due to the formation of a seasonal pycnocline. The effects of atmospheric processes at the surface on the BSW are hence suppressed as well as the action of the "biological pump". The vertical extent of the near- bottom waters is determined based on energy considerations and the structure of the seasonal pycnocline, whilst the horizontal extent is controlled by the shelf break, where strong along-slope currents hinder exchanges with the deep sea. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the area of the shelf during the summer stratification period. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from observations during the May-November period for the 2nd half of the 20th century. The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by cooling of the BSW during 1980-2001. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoppe, Ulf-Peter
2010-05-15
This report is a tutorial and overview over some of the complex dynamic phenomena in the polar and equatorial stratosphere, and the unexpected correlation that exists between these and the solar cycle. Sudden stratospheric warmings (stratwarms) occur in the polar stratosphere in winter, but not equally distributed between the two hemispheres. As a result, the ozone hole in the springtime polar stratosphere is much more severe in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a dynamic phenomenon of the equatorial stratosphere. Through processes not fully understood, the phase of the QBO (easterly or westerly) influences the onset of stratwarms. In addition, a correlation between the stratospheric winter temperature over the poles and the solar cycle has been found, but only if the datapoints are ordered by the phase of the QBO. - The best explanations and figures from four recent textbooks are selected, and abstracts of most relevant publications from the six last years are collected, with the most relevant portions for these subjects highlighted. - In addition to being basic science, the understanding of these phenomena is important in the context of the ozone hole, the greenhouse effect, as well as anthropogenic and natural climate change. (author)
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Winter climate variability and classification in the Bulgarian Mountainous Regions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Petkova, Nadezhda; Koleva, Ekaterina
2004-01-01
The problems of snowiness and thermal conditions of winters are of high interest of investigations because of the more frequent droughts, occurred in the region. In the present study an attempt to reveal tendencies existing during the last 70 years of 20 th century in the course winter precipitation and,temperature as well as in some of the snow cover parameters. On the base of mean winter air temperature winters in the Bulgarian mountains were analyzed and classified. The main results of the study show that winter precipitation has decrease tendencies more significant in the highest parts of the mountains. On the other hand winter air temperature increases. It shows a relatively well-established maximum at the end of the studied period. In the Bulgarian mountains normal winters are about 35-40% of all winters. (Author)
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Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia
2018-02-01
Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ulf Riediger
2014-09-01
Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yu, Dae Jung; Lee, Dong-Hun [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kihong [Division of Energy Systems Research, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)
2013-06-15
We study theoretically the linear mode conversion between electromagnetic waves and Langmuir waves in warm, stratified, and unmagnetized plasmas, using a numerically precise calculation based on the invariant imbedding method. We verify that the principle of reciprocity for the forward and backward mode conversion coefficients holds precisely regardless of temperature. We also find that the temperature dependence of the mode conversion coefficient is substantially stronger than that previously reported. Depending on the wave frequency and the incident angle, the mode conversion coefficient is found to increase or decrease with the increase of temperature.
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Favazza, C P; Gorny, K R; King, D M; Rossman, P J; Felmlee, J P; Woodrum, D A; Mynderse, L A
2014-08-01
Introduction of urethral warmers to aid cryosurgery in the prostate has significantly reduced the incidence of urethral sloughing; however, the incidence rate still remains as high as 15%. Furthermore, urethral warmers have been associated with an increase of cancer recurrence rates. Here, we report results from our phantom-based investigation to determine the impact of a urethral warmer on temperature distributions around cryoneedles during cryosurgery. Cryoablation treatments were simulated in a tissue mimicking phantom containing a urethral warming catheter. Four different configurations of cryoneedles relative to urethral warming catheter were investigated. For each configuration, the freeze-thaw cycles were repeated with and without the urethral warming system activated. Temperature histories were recorded at various pre-arranged positions relative to the cryoneedles and urethral warming catheter. In all configurations, the urethral warming system was effective at maintaining sub-lethal temperatures at the simulated surface of the urethra. The warmer action, however, was additionally demonstrated to potentially negatively impact treatment lethality in the target zone by elevating minimal temperatures to sub-lethal levels. In all needle configurations, rates of freezing and thawing were not significantly affected by the use of the urethral warmer. The results indicate that the urethral warming system can protect urethral tissue during cryoablation therapy with cryoneedles placed as close as 5mm to the surface of the urethra. Using a urethral warming system and placing multiple cryoneedles within 1cm of each other delivers lethal cooling at least 5mm from the urethral surface while sparing urethral tissue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture
Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van
2018-04-01
The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.
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Autumn Weather and Winter Increase in Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality
LENUS (Irish Health Repository)
McDonagh, R
2016-11-01
Mortality from cerebrovascular disease increases in winter but the cause is unclear. Ireland’s oceanic climate means that it infrequently experiences extremes of weather. We examined how weather patterns relate to stroke mortality in Ireland. Seasonal data for Sunshine (% of average), Rainfall (% of average) and Temperature (degrees Celsius above average) were collected for autumn (September-November) and winter (December-February) using official Irish Meteorological Office data. National cerebrovascular mortality data was obtained from Quarterly Vital Statistics. Excess winter deaths were calculated by subtracting (nadir) 3rd quarter mortality data from subsequent 1st quarter data. Data for 12 years were analysed, 2002-2014. Mean winter mortality excess was 24.7%. Winter mortality correlated with temperature (r=.60, p=0.04). Rise in winter mortality correlated strongly with the weather in the preceding autumn (Rainfall: r=-0.19 p=0.53, Temperature: r=-0.60, p=0.03, Sunshine, r=0.58, p=0.04). Winter cerebrovascular disease mortality appears higher following cool, sunny autum
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper
1998-01-01
Since the discovery of a striking correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse...... gases. The present analysis shows that a similar degree of correlation is obtained when testing the solar data against a couple of fictitious temperature series representing different global warming trends. Therefore, the correlation cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution...... to global warming from human activities, nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source....
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Windt, C.W.; van Hasselt, P.R
Winter wheat plants (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Urban), grown in nutrient solution, were exposed to differential shoot/root temperatures (i.e., 4/4, 4/20, 20/4 and 20/20 degrees C) for six weeks. Leaves grown at 4 degrees C showed an increase in frost tolerance from - 4 degrees C down to -11 degrees
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Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert
2017-02-01
Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming
Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara
2017-01-01
In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927
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Measuring the temperature history of isochorically heated warm dense metals
McGuffey, Chris; Kim, J.; Park, J.; Moody, J.; Emig, J.; Heeter, B.; Dozieres, M.; Beg, Fn; McLean, Hs
2017-10-01
A pump-probe platform has been designed for soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy near edge structure measurements in isochorically heated Al or Cu samples with temperature of 10s to 100s of eV. The method is compatible with dual picosecond-class laser systems and may be used to measure the temperature of the sample heated directly by the pump laser or by a laser-driven proton beam Knowledge of the temperature history of warm dense samples will aid equation of state measurements. First, various low- to mid-Z targets were evaluated for their suitability as continuum X-ray backlighters over the range 200-1800 eV using a 10 J picosecond-class laser with relativistic peak intensity Alloys were found to be more suitable than single-element backlighters. Second, the heated sample package was designed with consideration of target thickness and tamp layers using atomic physics codes. The results of the first demonstration attempts will be presented. This work was supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-SC0014600.
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Hide and go seek with temperature signals of Northeastern US Tree Species
Alexander, M. R.; Pederson, N.; Bishop, D. A.; Pearl, J. K.; Anchukaitis, K. J.
2017-12-01
Improving reconstructions of past climate is vital in providing long-term context for regional climate change. There have been only two published reconstructions of past temperatures in the northeastern U.S. (NEUS) since the 1980s, one based on Picea rubens, and one out in 2017 based upon Chamaecyparis thyoides (Atlantic white cedar; AWC). Because increased species diversity generally improves dendrohydroclimatic reconstructions and both Picea rubens and AWC have limitations as paleoproxies due to land-use and air pollution, we conducted a series of tests to ask, "Does species diversity improve reconstructions of temperature history in the northeastern United States?" The first two tests were performed on AWC and then a network of AWC and Picea rubens. Subsequent tests added groups of species or genera from a network of 230 tree-ring chronologies beginning with those having the strongest relation between warming temperatures and increased growth. PC1 of the AWC test represented 40% of the variance and showed a significant positive relation with winter temperature (r = 0.38). As additional species were included, the "winter temperature PC" accounted for less of the overall variance, ranging from 26% of the variance in test 2 to 5% by test 5. AWC is swamped by the hydroclimatic signal that dominates our network. Populations of species such as Fagus grandifolia, Fraxinus nigra, Juniperus virginiana, Liriodendron tulipifera, Pinus rigida, and Pinus strobus from our network loaded strongest with AWC on the winter temperature PC. Including multiple species accounted for almost 20% more variance in the winter temperature record than AWC alone. Although drought is a dominating influence of tree growth in this region, our results suggest that winter temperatures are recorded within NEUS tree rings. Increasing the species diversity of tree proxies has the potential for improving reconstruction of paleotemperatures in regions lacking latitudinal or altitudinal tree lines
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What to eat in a warming world: do increased temperatures necessitate hazardous duty pay?
Hall, L. Embere; Chalfoun, Anna D.
2018-01-01
Contemporary climate change affects nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions and resource availability. Changes in resource selection may allow individuals to offset climatic stress, thereby providing a mechanism for persistence amidst warming conditions. Whereas the role of predation risk in food choice has been studied broadly, the extent to which individuals respond to thermoregulatory risk by changing resource preferences is unclear. We addressed whether individuals compensated for temperature-related reductions in foraging time by altering forage preferences, using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a model species. We tested two hypotheses: (1) food-quality hypothesis—individuals exposed to temperature extremes should select higher-quality vegetation in return for accepting a physiologically riskier feeding situation; and (2) food-availability hypothesis—individuals exposed to temperature extremes should prioritize foraging quickly, thereby decreasing selection for higher-quality food. We quantified the composition and quality (% moisture, % nitrogen, and fiber content) of available and harvested vegetation, and deployed a network of temperature sensors to measure in situ conditions for 30 individuals, during July–Sept., 2015. Individuals exposed to more extreme daytime temperatures showed increased selection for high-nitrogen and for low-fiber vegetation, demonstrating strong support for the food-quality hypothesis. By contrast, pikas that experienced warmer conditions did not reduce selection for any of the three vegetation-quality metrics, as predicted by the food-availability hypothesis. By shifting resource-selection patterns, temperature-limited animals may be able to proximately buffer some of the negative effects associated with rapidly warming environments, provided that sufficient resources remain on the landscape.
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)
2012-04-15
Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern
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Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B
2015-06-01
Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Global warming: it's not only size that matters
Hegerl, Gabriele C.
2011-09-01
impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact
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Dimri, A. P.
2018-04-01
Regional changes in surface meteorological variables are one of the key issues affecting the Indian subcontinent especially in recent decades. These changes impact agriculture, health, water, etc., hence important to assess and investigate these changes. The Indian subcontinent is characterized by heterogeneous temperature regimes at regional and seasonal scales. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations are limited to recent decades as far as its spatial distribution is concerned. In particular, over Hilly region, these observations are sporadic. Due to variable topography and heterogeneous land use/land cover, it is complex to substantiate impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERA-I) reanalysis not only covers a larger spatial domain but also provides a greater number of inputs than IMD. This study used ERA-I in conjunction with IMD gridded data to provide a comparative assessment of changing temperature patterns over India and its subregions at both regional and seasonal scales. Warming patterns are observed in both ERA-I and IMD data sets. Cold nights decrease during winter; warm days increase and warm spell duration increased during winter could become a cause of concern for society, agriculture, socio-economic reasons, and health. Increasing warm days over the hilly regions may affect the corresponding snow cover and thus river hydrology and glaciological dynamics. Such changes during monsoon are slower, which could be attributed to moisture availability to dampen the temperature changes. On investigation and comparison thereon, the present study provisions usages of ERA-I-based indices for various impact and adaptation studies.
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Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)
2011-10-15
Output from a multi-millennial simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to determine the principal characteristics of extreme winters over the globe for ''present conditions''. Thus, this study is not concerned with possible changes in winter conditions associated with anthropogenically induced climatic change. Defining an extreme winter as having a surface temperature anomaly of below -2 standard deviations (sd) revealed a general occurrence rate over the globe of between 100 and 200 over a 6,000-year period of the simulation, with somewhat higher values over northwest North America. For temperature anomalies below -3 sd the corresponding occurrence rate drops to about 10. Spatial correlation studies revealed that extreme winters over regions in Europe, North America or Asia were very limited geographically, with time series of the surface temperature anomalies for these regions having mutual correlation coefficients of about 0.2. The temporal occurrence rates of winters (summers) having sd below -3 (above +3) were very asymmetric and sporadic, suggesting that such events arise from stochastic influences. Multi-year sequences of extreme winters were comparatively rare events. Detailed analysis revealed that the temporal and spatial evolution of the monthly surface temperature anomalies associated with an individual extreme winter were well replicated in the simulation, as were daily time series of such anomalies. Apart from an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on extreme winters in Europe, other prominent climatic oscillations were very poorly correlated with such winters. Rather modest winter temperature anomalies were found in the southern hemisphere. (orig.)
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Jevons, R; Carmichael, C; Crossley, A; Bone, A
2016-07-01
To identify and assess the available evidence on the impacts of cold indoor temperature thresholds on human health and make evidence-based recommendations for English homes. Systematic literature review. A systematic search of peer-reviewed published literature from the UK and countries with similar climates, and grading of the evidence using the National Institute of Health (NIH) framework was followed by a discussion with experts and formulation of recommendations. Twenty papers were included. Studies were included if they were conducted outside England but were from countries considered to have similar climates. Studies included two small randomised controlled trials, two cohort studies and one case control study; other studies were cross-sectional, largely laboratory-based studies. Health effects in the general population start to occur at around 18 °C. Effects in older people are more profound than in younger adults. Older people are less able to perceive low temperatures. Although evidence was limited, a strong argument for setting thresholds remains. The effects observed on the general population and the effects on those more vulnerable makes a case for a recommended minimum temperature for all. Health messages should be clear and simple, allowing informed choices to be made. A threshold of 18 °C was considered the evidence based and practical minimum temperature at which a home should be kept during winter in England. There is limited evidence available on minimum temperature thresholds for homes. However a recommendation of at least 18 °C for the whole population with nuancing of messages for those more vulnerable to the effects of cold can be made from the results of the retrieved studies. Heating homes to at least 18 °C (65 °F) in winter poses minimal risk to the health of a sedentary person, wearing suitable clothing. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Autumn Oczkowski
Full Text Available Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. A recent survey and synthesis of data from four locations in Southern Rhode Island has led us to hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<1 m, nearshore portions of these estuaries. While intertidal areas are not typically selected as locations for long-term monitoring, we compiled data from published literature, theses, and reports that suggest that enhanced warming may be occurring, perhaps at rates three times higher than deeper estuarine waters. Warmer spring waters may be one of the factors influencing biota residing in intertidal regions both in general as well as at our specific sites. We observed greater abundance of fish, and size of Menidia sp., in recent (2010-2012 seine surveys compared to similar collections in 1962. While any linkages are speculative and data are preliminary, taken together they suggest that shallow intertidal portions of estuaries may be important places to look for the effects of climate change.
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Oczkowski, Autumn; McKinney, Richard; Ayvazian, Suzanne; Hanson, Alana; Wigand, Cathleen; Markham, Erin
2015-01-01
Over the past 50 years, mean annual water temperature in northeastern U.S. estuaries has increased by approximately 1.2°C, with most of the warming recorded in the winter and early spring. A recent survey and synthesis of data from four locations in Southern Rhode Island has led us to hypothesize that this warming may be amplified in the shallow (<1 m), nearshore portions of these estuaries. While intertidal areas are not typically selected as locations for long-term monitoring, we compiled data from published literature, theses, and reports that suggest that enhanced warming may be occurring, perhaps at rates three times higher than deeper estuarine waters. Warmer spring waters may be one of the factors influencing biota residing in intertidal regions both in general as well as at our specific sites. We observed greater abundance of fish, and size of Menidia sp., in recent (2010-2012) seine surveys compared to similar collections in 1962. While any linkages are speculative and data are preliminary, taken together they suggest that shallow intertidal portions of estuaries may be important places to look for the effects of climate change.
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Large Plankton Enhance Heterotrophy Under Experimental Warming in a Temperate Coastal Ecosystem
Huete-Stauffer, Tamara Megan
2017-12-15
Microbes are key players in oceanic carbon fluxes. Temperate ecosystems are seasonally variable and thus suitable for testing the effect of warming on microbial carbon fluxes at contrasting oceanographic conditions. In four experiments conducted in February, April, August and October 2013 in coastal NE Atlantic waters, we monitored microbial plankton stocks and daily rates of primary production, bacterial heterotrophic production and respiration at in situ temperature and at 2 and 4°C over ambient values during 4-day incubations. Ambient total primary production (TPP) exceeded total community respiration (< 200 µm, TR) in winter and fall but not in spring and summer. The bacterial contribution to ecosystem carbon fluxes was low, with bacterial production representing on average 6.9 ± 3.2% of TPP and bacterial respiration (between 0.8 and 0.2 µm) contributing on average 35 ± 7% to TR. Warming did not result in a uniform increase in the variables considered, and most significant effects were found only for the 4°C increase. In the summer and fall experiments, under warm and nutrient-deficient conditions, the net TPP/TR ratio decreased by 39 and 34% in the 4°C treatment, mainly due to the increase in respiration of large organisms rather than bacteria. Our results indicate that the interaction of temperature and substrate availability in determining microbial carbon fluxes has a strong seasonal component in temperate planktonic ecosystems, with temperature having a more pronounced effect and generating a shift toward net heterotrophy under more oligotrophic conditions as found in summer and early fall.
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Sepulveda, Adam; Layhee, Megan J.
2015-01-01
American Bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) have been introduced across the globe, including in many northern latitude habitats where wetlands are ice-covered for part of the year. Because bullfrogs are less mobile at low temperatures, greater knowledge about their overwintering habitat may provide additional opportunities for control. Here, we described fall and early-winter movements and habitat associations for introduced juvenile bullfrogs in a pond within the Yellowstone River corridor near Billings, Montana, USA. We attached radio-transmitters to 13 juvenile bullfrogs and located individuals from 28 August to 10 December 2014. Bullfrogs moved greater distances in late summer and early autumn, and later during brief warming periods. Collectively, all bullfrog locations were distributed across a 15,384 m2 area during the active season, but contracted to a 130 m2 area in the east cove of the pond by the time the study site froze over. Our research provides evidence that managers in northern latitude regions like Montana may be able to use the long, cold winters to their advantage because the site-specific distributions of introduced bullfrogs contracted as temperatures decreased.
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Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.
Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.
1992-10-01
One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.
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Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E
2018-03-23
The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.
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Raitsos, D. E.
2011-07-19
Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.
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Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.
2011-07-01
Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.
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Salis, Lucia; Lof, Marjolein; Van Asch, M.; Visser, Marcel E.
2016-01-01
Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has to match
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Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Rheuban, Jennie E.; Luis, Kelly M. A.; Doney, Scott C.
2017-12-01
The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.
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Marine assemblages respond rapidly to winter climate variability.
Morley, James W; Batt, Ryan D; Pinsky, Malin L
2017-07-01
Even species within the same assemblage have varied responses to climate change, and there is a poor understanding for why some taxa are more sensitive to climate than others. In addition, multiple mechanisms can drive species' responses, and responses may be specific to certain life stages or times of year. To test how marine species respond to climate variability, we analyzed 73 diverse taxa off the southeast US coast in 26 years of scientific trawl survey data and determined how changes in distribution and biomass relate to temperature. We found that winter temperatures were particularly useful for explaining interannual variation in species' distribution and biomass, although the direction and magnitude of the response varied among species from strongly negative, to little response, to strongly positive. Across species, the response to winter temperature varied greatly, with much of this variation being explained by thermal preference. A separate analysis of annual commercial fishery landings revealed that winter temperatures may also impact several important fisheries in the southeast United States. Based on the life stages of the species surveyed, winter temperature appears to act through overwinter mortality of juveniles or as a cue for migration timing. We predict that this assemblage will be responsive to projected increases in temperature and that winter temperature may be broadly important for species relationships with climate on a global scale. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Developing a module for estimating climate warming effects on hydropower pricing in California
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.; Madani, Kaveh
2012-01-01
Climate warming is expected to alter hydropower generation in California through affecting the annual stream-flow regimes and reducing snowpack. On the other hand, increased temperatures are expected to increase hydropower demand for cooling in warm periods while decreasing demand for heating in winter, subsequently altering the annual hydropower pricing patterns. The resulting variations in hydropower supply and pricing regimes necessitate changes in reservoir operations to minimize the revenue losses from climate warming. Previous studies in California have only explored the effects of hydrological changes on hydropower generation and revenues. This study builds a long-term hydropower pricing estimation tool, based on artificial neural network (ANN), to develop pricing scenarios under different climate warming scenarios. Results suggest higher average hydropower prices under climate warming scenarios than under historical climate. The developed tool is integrated with California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) to facilitate simultaneous consideration of climate warming on hydropower supply, demand and pricing. EBHOM estimates an additional 5% drop in annual revenues under a dry warming scenario when climate change impacts on pricing are considered, with respect to when such effects are ignored, underlining the importance of considering changes in hydropower demand and pricing in future studies and policy making. - Highlights: ► Addressing the major gap in previous climate change and hydropower studies in California. ► Developing an ANN-based long-term hydropower price estimation tool. ► Estimating climate change effects on hydropower demand and pricing in California. ► Investigating the sensitivity of hydropower operations to future price changes. ► Underlining the importance of consideration of climate change impacts on electricity pricing.
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Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina
2017-06-20
The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.
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Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo
2017-11-01
Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to
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Sridharan, S.; Sathishkumar, S.; Raghunath, K.
2009-01-01
Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) during January-February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending) motions at high (low) latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Sridharan
2009-01-01
Full Text Available Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during January–February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending motions at high (low latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.
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Buchwal, A.; Welker, J. M.
2016-12-01
Arctic change is being manifested by shifts in the vegetation composition and abundance throughout many regions of the Arctic. These changes are primarily reflected by increases in shrub growth and density, but the extent to which shrub growth is expressed in greater shrub ring width and the degree to which natural and experimental warming correspond and or whether the secondary effect of deeper snow in winter acts to alter shrub ring growh and or shrub biomass is yet to be determined for Arctic Alaska. In order to explore growth response of arctic shrubs to on-going and predicted temperature and snow depth increase we investigated shrubs' annual growth rings using dendrochronological methods applied to plants growing under control and experimental treatments in Toolik Lake, Northern Alaska. Specifically we evaluated the effects of a 20-year experimental warming (due to open top chambers, OTC's) and snow depth increases on the growth rings pattern of two common shrub species of Northern Alaska, i.e. Betula nana and Salix pulchra. By applying a serial sectioning method patterns of annual growth were investigated across the entire plant including below-ground parts. Moreover this procedure allowed for a complete cross-dating and a detection of irregular radial growth, including common missing and partially missing rings. We found that the natural warming in Alaska occurring over the past 20 years is stimulating shrub ring growth, more so for Betula than for Salix. Experimental warming (simulating conditions in approximately 2030) stimulated the secondary growth ratio; however the allocation pattern between below-ground and above-ground is quite variable between individual shrubs. In addition, annual growth rings analyses were supplemented by quantitative wood anatomy properties, such as vessel size and density. Our findings indicate that there can be differential growth ring responses of deciduous shrubs to natural climate warming, that growth ring increases reflect
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. L. Bondarev
2017-05-01
have importance for their explanation. Changes in the direction of the course of temperature which occur after spawning have no value in explaining spawning. If we consider coefficient b beyond the environmental context, then certainly this figure depends on the coldness of the winter and equally on the warmness of the summer. Similar considerations lead us to interpret the coefficient b of a descending branch as a marker of the warmness of the summer. Comparison of the ascending temperature branch of the current year and the descending branch of the previous year gives the coefficient of correlation between these parameters of linear regression r = –0.10, P = 0.39. This result confirms our assumption that the coefficient b of a descending branch is a marker of the warmness of summer, because if it were a marker of the coldness of a winter, then the coefficient of correlation parameters for the temperature course that are common for this winter would be statistically significant. In addition, the absence of connections indicates that these coefficients provide independent and additional information about the weather conditions. Coefficient a for the ascending branch characterizes the rate of warming during the spring, ie the rate of onset of summer, and for the descending branch – the rate of cooling in the fall, that is the speed of the onset of winter. The linear model reflects the general trend of warming in spring and cooling in autumn. In reality, the course of temperature change is by its nature a complex oscillatory process. Therefore the coefficient of determination of linear regression indicates the extent of correspondence of the real process to the linear model. Significant deviations from the general trend lead to a reduction in the coefficient of determination. These variations are the result of processes of sharp warming, alternating with periods of abrupt cooling. The more such events occur, the smaller the coefficient of determination. Thus, to
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Farrell, Hazel; Seebacher, Frank; O'Connor, Wayne; Zammit, Anthony; Harwood, D Tim; Murray, Shauna
2015-09-01
Species of Alexandrium produce potent neurotoxins termed paralytic shellfish toxins and are expanding their ranges worldwide, concurrent with increases in sea surface temperature. The metabolism of molluscs is temperature dependent, and increases in ocean temperature may influence both the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium and the dynamics of toxin uptake and depuration in shellfish. Here, we conducted a large-scale study of the effect of temperature on the uptake and depuration of paralytic shellfish toxins in three commercial oysters (Saccostrea glomerata and diploid and triploid Crassostrea gigas, n = 252 per species/ploidy level). Oysters were acclimated to two constant temperatures, reflecting current and predicted climate scenarios (22 and 27 °C), and fed a diet including the paralytic shellfish toxin-producing species Alexandrium minutum. While the oysters fed on A. minutum in similar quantities, concentrations of the toxin analogue GTX1,4 were significantly lower in warm-acclimated S. glomerata and diploid C. gigas after 12 days. Following exposure to A. minutum, toxicity of triploid C. gigas was not affected by temperature. Generally, detoxification rates were reduced in warm-acclimated oysters. The routine metabolism of the oysters was not affected by the toxins, but a significant effect was found at a cellular level in diploid C. gigas. The increasing incidences of Alexandrium blooms worldwide are a challenge for shellfish food safety regulation. Our findings indicate that rising ocean temperatures may reduce paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in two of the three oyster types; however, they may persist for longer periods in oyster tissue. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes
Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.
2011-01-01
Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Margaret Loughnan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The effects of extreme temperatures on human health have been well described. However, the adverse health effects of warm weather that occurs outside the summer period have had little attention. We used daily anomalous AMI morbidity and daily anomalous temperature to determine the impact of “unseasonable” temperature on human health. The “unseasonably” warm weather was attributed to a slow moving high pressure system to the east of Melbourne. No morbidity displacement was noted during either of these periods suggesting that morbidity due to “unseasonable” temperatures is avoidable. An increase in warmer weather during the cooler months of spring may result in increased morbidity, and an alert system based on summer thresholds may not be appropriate for early season heat health warnings. A straightforward alert system based on calculating anomalous temperature from daily weather forecasts may reduce the public health impact of “unseasonably” warm weather.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Dörnbrack
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.
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Effects of Warming on Tree Species’ Recruitment in Deciduous Forests of the Eastern United States
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States); Clark, James S. [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States); Mohan, Jacqueline [Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA (United States)
2015-03-25
Climate change is restructuring forests of the United States, although the details of this restructuring are currently uncertain. Rising temperatures of 2 to 8oC and associated changes in soil moisture will shift the competitive balance between species that compete for light and water, and so change their abilities to produce seed, germinate, grow, and survive. We have used large-scale experiments to determine the effects of warming on the most sensitive stage of species distributions, i.e., recruitment, in mixed deciduous forests in southern New England and in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. Two questions organized our research: (1) Might temperate tree species near the “warm” end of their range in the eastern United States decline in abundance during the coming century due to projected warming? and (2) Might trees near the “cool” end of their range in the eastern United States increase in abundance, or extend their range, during the coming 100 years because of projected warming? To explore these questions, we exposed seedlings to air and soil warming experiments in two eastern deciduous forest sites; one at the Harvard Forest (HF) in central Massachusetts, and the other at the Duke Forest (DF) in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. We focused on tree species common to both Harvard and Duke Forests (such as red, black, and white oaks), those near northern range limits (black oak, flowing dogwood, tulip poplar), and those near southern range limits (yellow birch, sugar maple, Virginia pine). At each site, we planted seeds and seedlings in common gardens established in temperature-controlled, open-top chambers. The experimental design was replicated and fully factorial and involved three temperature regimes (ambient, +3oC and +5oC) and two light regimes (closed forest canopy (low light) and gap conditions (high light)). Measured variables included Winter/Spring responses to temperature and mid-Summer responses to low soil moisture. This research
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. L. Manney
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The 2015/16 Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere appeared to have the greatest potential yet seen for record Arctic ozone loss. Temperatures in the Arctic lower stratosphere were at record lows from December 2015 through early February 2016, with an unprecedented period of temperatures below ice polar stratospheric cloud thresholds. Trace gas measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS show that exceptional denitrification and dehydration, as well as extensive chlorine activation, occurred throughout the polar vortex. Ozone decreases in 2015/16 began earlier and proceeded more rapidly than those in 2010/11, a winter that saw unprecedented Arctic ozone loss. However, on 5–6 March 2016 a major final sudden stratospheric warming ("major final warming", MFW began. By mid-March, the mid-stratospheric vortex split after being displaced far off the pole. The resulting offspring vortices decayed rapidly preceding the full breakdown of the vortex by early April. In the lower stratosphere, the period of temperatures low enough for chlorine activation ended nearly a month earlier than that in 2011 because of the MFW. Ozone loss rates were thus kept in check because there was less sunlight during the cold period. Although the winter mean volume of air in which chemical ozone loss could occur was as large as that in 2010/11, observed ozone values did not drop to the persistently low values reached in 2011.We use MLS trace gas measurements, as well as mixing and polar vortex diagnostics based on meteorological fields, to show how the timing and intensity of the MFW and its impact on transport and mixing halted chemical ozone loss. Our detailed characterization of the polar vortex breakdown includes investigations of individual offspring vortices and the origins and fate of air within them. Comparisons of mixing diagnostics with lower-stratospheric N2O and middle-stratospheric CO from MLS (long-lived tracers show rapid vortex erosion and
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Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus
Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.
2018-05-01
Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.
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Dynamic response of wind turbine towers in warm permafrost
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Benjamin Still; ZhaoHui Joey Yang; Simon Evans; FuJun Niu
2014-01-01
Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska. Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season, when the energy demand is the highest. Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development. Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design, construction, and operation of wind turbines. This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska. It presents a sys-tem for response monitoring and load assessment, and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014. The dynamic proper-ties are assessed based on the monitoring data, and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed. These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.
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Effect of soil warming and rainfall patterns on soil N cycling in northern Europe
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Patil, Raveendra Hanumantagoud; Lægdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind
2010-01-01
. These changes may affect soil moisture regimes, soil water drainage, soil nitrogen (N) availability and N leaching to aquatic environment and N2O emissions to atmosphere. Thus it is important to study the effects of increased soil temperature and varying rainfall patterns on soil N cycling in arable land from...... temperate climates, which is a major source of N pollution. An open-field lysimeter study was carried out during 2008-2009 in Denmark on loamy sand soil (Typic Hapludult) with three factors: number of rainy days, rainfall amount and soil warming. Number of rainy days included the mean monthly rainy days...... by 5 °C at 0.1 m depth as ‘heated' and non-heated as ‘control' treatments. Automated mobile rain-out shelter and irrigation system, and insulated buried heating cables were used to impose the treatments. Soil warming, compared with unheated control, advanced winter wheat crop development, and increased...
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hao Zhang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Agricultural ecosystems are important contributors to atmospheric greenhouse gasses (GHGs; however, in situ winter emission data in saline-alkali fields are scarce. Gas samples were collected during different periods, from three rice (R1–R3 and three maize (M1–M3 fields with different soil pH levels and salinity conditions. Carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions in the rice and maize fields decreased with decreasing temperature during the freezing period and increased with the rising temperature during the thawing period, with the majority of winter CO2 emissions occurring during these two periods. Peaks in methane (CH4 emissions were observed during the freezing period in the rice fields and during the snow-melting period in the rice and maize fields. CH4 emissions in the rice fields and CH4 uptake rates in the maize fields were significantly (P < 0.05 related to surface soil temperature. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions remained relatively low, except for during the peaks observed during the snow-melting period in both the rice and maize fields, leading to the high GHG contribution of the snow-melting period throughout the winter. Higher pH and salinity conditions consistently resulted in lower CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions, CH4 uptake, and lower global warming potential (GWP. These results can contribute to the assessment of the GWP during winter in saline-alkali regions.
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The intraseasonal variability of winter semester surface air temperature in Antarctica
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lejiang Yu
2011-02-01
Full Text Available This study investigates systematically the intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature over Antarctica by applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF analysis to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, US Department of Energy, Reanalysis 2 data set for the period of 1979 through 2007. The results reveal the existence of two major intraseasonal oscillations of surface temperature with periods of 26–30 days and 14 days during the Antarctic winter season in the region south of 60°S. The first EOF mode shows a nearly uniform spatial pattern in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean associated with the Antarctic Oscillation. The mode-1 intraseasonal variability of the surface temperature leads that of upper atmosphere by one day with the largest correlation at 300-hPa level geopotential heights. The intraseasonal variability of the mode-1 EOF is closely related to the variations of surface net longwave radiation the total cloud cover over Antarctica. The other major EOF modes reveal the existence of eastward propagating phases over the Southern Ocean and marginal region in Antarctica. The leading two propagating modes respond to Pacific–South American modes. Meridional winds induced by the wave train from the tropics have a direct influence on the surface air temperature over the Southern Ocean and the marginal region of the Antarctic continent.
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Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.
Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J
2016-10-01
How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.
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Influence of temperature on daily locomotor activity in the crab Uca pugilator.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Audrey M Mat
Full Text Available Animals living in the intertidal zone are exposed to prominent temperature changes. To cope with the energetic demands of environmental thermal challenges, ectotherms rely mainly on behavioral responses, which may change depending on the time of the day and seasonally. Here, we analyze how temperature shapes crabs' behavior at 2 different times of the year and show that a transition from constant cold (13.5°C to constant warm (17.5°C water temperature leads to increased locomotor activity levels throughout the day in fiddler crabs (Uca pugilator collected during the summer. In contrast, the same transition in environmental temperature leads to a decrease in the amplitude of the daily locomotor activity rhythm in crabs collected during the winter. In other words, colder temperatures during the cold season favor a more prominent diurnal behavior. We interpret this winter-summer difference in the response of daily locomotor activity to temperature changes within the framework of the circadian thermoenergetics hypothesis, which predicts that a less favorable energetic balance would promote a more diurnal activity pattern. During the winter, when the energetic balance is likely less favorable, crabs would save energy by being more active during the expected high-temperature phase of the day-light phase-and less during the expected low-temperature phase of the day-dark phase. Our results suggest that endogenous rhythms in intertidal ectotherms generate adaptive behavioral programs to cope with thermoregulatory demands of the intertidal habitat.
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Snow Based Winter Tourism and Kinds of Adaptations to Climate Change
Breiling, M.
2009-04-01
Austria is the most intensive winter tourism country in the world with some 4% contribution in the national GNP. Snow based winter tourism became the lead economy of mountain areas, covering two thirds of the country and is by far economically more important than agriculture and forestry. While natural snow was the precondition for the establishment of winter tourism, artificial snow is nowadays the precondition to maintain winter tourism in the current economic intensity. Skiing originally low tech, is developing increasingly into high tech. While skiing was comparatively cheap in previous days due to natural snow, skiing is getting more expensive and exclusive for a higher income class due to the relative high production costs. Measures to adapt to a warmer climate can be divided into three principle types: physical adaptation, technical adaptation - where artificial snow production plays a major role - and social adaptation. It will be discussed under which conditions each adaptation type seems feasible in dependence of the level of warming. In particular physical and technical adaptations are related to major investments. Practically every ski resort has to decide about what is an appropriate, economically cost efficient level of adaptation. Adapting too much reduces profits. Adapting too little does not bring enough income. The optimal level is often not clear. In many cases public subsidies help to collect funds for adaptation and to keep skiing profitable. The possibility to adapt on local, regional or on national scales will depend on the degree of warming, the future price of artificial snow production and the public means foreseen to support the winter tourism industry.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lijie Ma
Full Text Available Wheat stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst, is one of the most important diseases of wheat worldwide. Understanding the survival of Pst during the overwintering period is critical for predicting Pst epidemics in the spring. Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR methods quantifying Pst DNA and RNA (cDNA were developed and compared for the ability to quantify viable Pst in leaf tissues. Both qPCR of DNA and RNA can provide reliable measurement of viable Pst in plant tissues prior to the late sporulation stage for which qPCR of DNA gave a much higher estimate of fungal biomass than qPCR of RNA. The percentage of Pst biomass that was viable in detached and attached leaves under low temperatures decreased over time. Pst survived longer on attached leaves than on detached leaves. The survival of Pst in cultivars with strong winter-hardiness at 0°C and -5°C was greater than those with weak winter-hardiness. However, such differences in Pst survival among cultivars were negligible at -10, -15 and -20°C. Results indicated that Pst mycelia inside green leaves can also be killed by low temperatures rather than through death of green leaves under low temperatures. The relationship of Pst survival in attached leaves with temperature and winter-hardiness was well described by logistic models. Further field evaluation is necessary to assess whether inclusion of other factors such as moisture and snow cover could improve the model performance in predicting Pst overwintering potential, and hence the epidemic in spring.
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Cooling-water amounts, temperature, and the environment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Koops, F.B.J.; Donze, M.; Hadderingh, R.H.
1979-01-01
The release of heat from power plants into a water can take place with relative small quantities of cooling water, highly warmed up accordingly, or with large quantities of cooling water slightly warmed up. The utilization of cooling water is bound to certain guidelines established by the authorities. With the intention to protect the environment, the admissable temperatures and warming-up have been strictly limited by the authorities. In the Netherlands, we have presently temporary cooling water guidelines which allow a max. temperature of the cooling water in the cooling cycle of 30 0 C and a maximum admissible temperature rise in the condenser between 7 0 C during summer and 15 0 C during winter. It has also been determined in these requirements how much cooling water at least has to be used to discharge a specified quantity of heat. Plankton, spawn and young fish are dragged with the cooling water. Harm to these organisms can be caused mechanically by pumps, sieves and the condenser or they can be harmed by the temperature rise in the condenser. Investigations showed that mechanical harm to spawn and young fish in the cooling water flow should not be ignored, and that detectable harm to plankton organisms takes place only at water temperatures above 32 0 C. The cooling water consumption can therefore be optimised as follows: The solution of a greater temperature increase and a slightly higher value for the temperature maximum can reduce the cooling water quantity. This reduction of the cooling water quantity reduces the destruction of the fish quantity, which gets into the cooling water system, especially during the summer. If the temperature rise and the temperature itself are not selected too high, the destruction of fish may be reduced without causing serious damage to the plankton. (orig.) [de
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Maula, H; Hongisto, V; Östman, L; Haapakangas, A; Koskela, H; Hyönä, J
2016-04-01
The aim of the study was to determine the effect of a temperature of 29°C on performance in tasks involving different cognitive demands and to assess the effect on perceived performance, subjective workload, thermal comfort, perceived working conditions, cognitive fatigue, and somatic symptoms in a laboratory with realistic office environment. A comparison was made with a temperature of 23°C. Performance was measured on the basis of six different tasks that reflect different stages of cognitive performance. Thirty-three students participated in the experiment. The exposure time was 3.5 h in both thermal conditions. Performance was negatively affected by slightly warm temperature in the N-back working memory task. Temperature had no effect on performance in other tasks focusing on psychomotor, working memory, attention, or long-term memory capabilities. Temperature had no effect on perceived performance. However, slightly warm temperature caused concentration difficulties. Throat symptoms were found to increase over time at 29°C, but no temporal change was seen at 23°C. No effect of temperature on other symptoms was found. As expected, the differences in thermal comfort were significant. Women perceived a temperature of 23°C colder than men. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.
2017-12-01
Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.
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Advection from the North Atlantic as the Forcing of Winter Greenhouse Effect Over Europe
Otterman, J.; Angell, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Shubert, S.; Starr, David OC.; Susskind, J.; Wu, M.-L. C.
2002-01-01
In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.
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Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.
2015-01-01
Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.
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Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades
Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene
2018-03-01
As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.
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Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen
2018-01-01
We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.
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Bernareggi, Giulietta; Carbognani, Michele; Mondoni, Andrea; Petraglia, Alessandro
2016-01-01
Background and Aims Climate warming has major impacts on seed germination of several alpine species, hence on their regeneration capacity. Most studies have investigated the effects of warming after seed dispersal, and little is known about the effects a warmer parental environment may have on germination and dormancy of the seed progeny. Nevertheless, temperatures during seed development and maturation could alter the state of dormancy, affecting the timing of emergence and seedling survival. Here, the interplay between pre- and post-dispersal temperatures driving seed dormancy release and germination requirements of alpine plants were investigated. Methods Three plant species inhabiting alpine snowbeds were exposed to an artificial warming treatment (i.e. +1·5 K) and to natural conditions in the field. Seeds produced were exposed to six different periods of cold stratification (0, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 20 weeks at 0 °C), followed by four incubation temperatures (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C) for germination testing. Key Results A warmer parental environment produced either no or a significant increase in germination, depending on the duration of cold stratification, incubation temperatures and their interaction. In contrast, the speed of germination was less sensitive to changes in the parental environment. Moreover, the effects of warming appeared to be linked to the level of (physiological) seed dormancy, with deeper dormant species showing major changes in response to incubation temperatures and less dormant species in response to cold stratification periods. Conclusions Plants developed under warmer climates will produce seeds with changed germination responses to temperature and/or cold stratification, but the extent of these changes across species could be driven by seed dormancy traits. Transgenerational plastic adjustments of seed germination and dormancy shown here may result from increased seed viability, reduced primary and secondary dormancy state, or both, and
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eduardo A Agosta
2012-12-01
nights (TN10 and warm nights (TN90 during winter (JJA over subtropical Argentina, to the north of 40°S and surrounding areas (ASA from meteorological stations and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II and ECMWF ERA-interim reanalysis data. It is found that the frequency of warm nights (Tmin over percentile 90, TN90 is modulated at interannual scales by quasi-stationary wave propagation induced by convection anomalies in the Indic and Pacific. The high frequency of warm nights is associated with anomalous warming over the central equatorial Pacific (positive phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO. The low frequency of warm nights is linked to anomalous convection over the monsoon Indian area and the western tropical southern Indic. Hence quasi-stationary Rossby wave activity propagation is favored over the Indic, Pacific and southern South America. Such a teleconnection favors in turn the high fequency of cold nights (Tmin below percentile 10, TN10. Instead, the low frequency of cold nights is linked to the low-frequency variability of the Southern Hemisphere high-latitude mode (SAM. It is found that winters with high (low frequency of cold (warm nights are characterized by a strengthening (weakening of the subtropical jet over southern South America and adjacent areas. The current remote forcings are related with atmospheric/oceanic processes that are interconnected at seasonal-interseasonal scales, which could allow us to develop statistical-dynamical forecasts for the higher or lower occurrence of warm or cold nights in winter.
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Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fereday, D R; Maidens, A; Arribas, A; Scaife, A A; Knight, J R
2012-01-01
Northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 was exceptional for atmospheric circulation: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was the lowest on record for over a century. This contributed to cold conditions over large areas of Eurasia and North America. Here we use two versions of the Met Office GloSea4 seasonal forecast system to investigate the predictability of this exceptional winter. The first is the then operational version of GloSea4, which uses a low top model and successfully predicted a negative NAO in forecasts produced in September, October and November 2009. The second uses a new high top model, which better simulates sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This is particularly relevant for 2009/10 due to its unusual combination of a strong El Niño and an easterly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase, favouring SSW development. SSWs are shown to play an influential role in surface conditions, producing a stronger sea level pressure signal and improving predictions of the 2009/10 winter. (letter)
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Winter chilling speeds spring development of temperate butterflies.
Stålhandske, Sandra; Gotthard, Karl; Leimar, Olof
2017-07-01
Understanding and predicting phenology has become more important with ongoing climate change and has brought about great research efforts in the recent decades. The majority of studies examining spring phenology of insects have focussed on the effects of spring temperatures alone. Here we use citizen-collected observation data to show that winter cold duration, in addition to spring temperature, can affect the spring emergence of butterflies. Using spatial mixed models, we disentangle the effects of climate variables and reveal impacts of both spring and winter conditions for five butterfly species that overwinter as pupae across the UK, with data from 1976 to 2013 and one butterfly species in Sweden, with data from 2001 to 2013. Warmer springs lead to earlier emergence in all species and milder winters lead to statistically significant delays in three of the five investigated species. We also find that the delaying effect of winter warmth has become more pronounced in the last decade, during which time winter durations have become shorter. For one of the studied species, Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip butterfly), we also make use of parameters determined from previous experiments on pupal development to model the spring phenology. Using daily temperatures in the UK and Sweden, we show that recent variation in spring temperature corresponds to 10-15 day changes in emergence time over UK and Sweden, whereas variation in winter duration corresponds to 20 days variation in the south of the UK versus only 3 days in the south of Sweden. In summary, we show that short winters delay phenology. The effect is most prominent in areas with particularly mild winters, emphasising the importance of winter for the response of ectothermic animals to climate change. With climate change, these effects may become even stronger and apply also at higher latitudes. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.
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Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro
2018-05-01
Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.
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Temperature response to future urbanization and climate change
Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Fita, Lluís; Bormann, Kathryn J.
2014-04-01
This study examines the impact of future urban expansion on local near-surface temperature for Sydney (Australia) using a future climate scenario (A2). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the present (1990-2009) and future (2040-2059) climates of the region at 2-km spatial resolution. The standard land use of the model was replaced with a more accurate dataset that covers the Sydney area. The future simulation incorporates the projected changes in the urban area of Sydney to account for the expected urban expansion. A comparison between areas with projected land use changes and their surroundings was conducted to evaluate how urbanization and global warming will act together and to ascertain their combined effect on the local climate. The analysis of the temperature changes revealed that future urbanization will strongly affect minimum temperature, whereas little impact was detected for maximum temperature. The minimum temperature changes will be noticeable throughout the year. However, during winter and spring these differences will be particularly large and the increases could be double the increase due to global warming alone at 2050. Results indicated that the changes were mostly due to increased heat capacity of urban structures and reduced evaporation in the city environment.
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Ludwig, S.; Natali, S.; Rastetter, E. B.; Shaver, G. R.; Graham, L. M.; Jastrow, J. D.
2017-12-01
The arctic is warming at an accelerated rate relative to the globe. Among the predicted consequences of warming temperatures in the arctic are increased gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and nutrient availability. The net effect of these changes on the carbon (C) cycle and resulting C balance and feedback to climate change remain unclear. Historically the Arctic has been a C sink, but evidence from recent years suggests some regions in the Arctic are becoming C sources. To predict the role of the Arctic in global C cycling, the mechanisms affecting arctic C balances need to be better resolved. We measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a long-term, multi-level, fertilization experiment at Toolik Lake, AK during an anomalously warm summer. We modeled NEE, ER, and GPP using a Bayesian network model. The best-fit model included Q10 temperature functions and linear fertilization functions for both ER and GPP. ER was more strongly affected by temperature and GPP was driven more by fertilization level. As a result, fertilization increased the C sink capacity, but only at moderate and low temperatures. At high temperatures (>28 °C) the NEE modeled for the highest level of fertilization was not significantly different from zero. In contrast, at ambient nutrient levels modeled NEE was significantly below zero (net uptake) until 35 °C, when it becomes neutral. Regardless of the level of fertilization, NEE never decreased with warming. Temperature in low ranges (5-15°C) had no net effect on NEE, whereas NEE began to increase exponentially with temperature after a threshold of 15°C until becoming a net source to the atmosphere at 37°C. Our results indicate that the C sink strength of tundra ecosystems can be increased with small increases in nutrient availability, but that large increase in nutrient availability can switch tundra ecosystems into C sources under warm conditions. Warming temperatures in tundra ecosystems will only decrease C
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Why on the snow? Winter emergence strategies of snow-active Chironomidae (Diptera) in Poland.
Soszyńska-Maj, Agnieszka; Paasivirta, Lauri; Giłka, Wojciech
2016-10-01
A long-term study of adult non-biting midges (Chironomidae) active in winter on the snow in mountain areas and lowlands in Poland yielded 35 species. The lowland and mountain communities differed significantly in their specific composition. The mountain assemblage was found to be more diverse and abundant, with a substantial contribution from the subfamily Diamesinae, whereas Orthocladiinae predominated in the lowlands. Orthocladius wetterensis Brundin was the most characteristic and superdominant species in the winter-active chironomid communities in both areas. Only a few specimens and species of snow-active chironomids were recorded in late autumn and early winter. The abundance of chironomids peaked in late February in the mountain and lowland areas with an additional peak in the mountain areas in early April. However, this second peak of activity consisted mainly of Orthocladiinae, as Diamesinae emerged earliest in the season. Most snow-active species emerged in mid- and late winter, but their seasonal patterns differed between the 2 regions as a result of the different species composition and the duration of snow cover in these regions. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient tests yielded positive results between each season and the number of chironomid individuals recorded in the mountain area. A positive correlation between air temperature, rising to +3.5 °C, and the number of specimens recorded on the snow in the mountain community was statistically significant. The winter emergence and mate-searching strategies of chironomids are discussed in the light of global warming, and a brief compilation of most important published data on the phenomena studied is provided. © 2015 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
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Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin
2018-04-01
Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhisheng, Li; Jiawen, Liao; Xiaoxia, Wang [School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006 (China); Lin, Yaolin [Building Energy Solutions and Technologies, Inc, San Jose Office, San Jose, CA 95134 (United States); Xuhong, Liu [School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510643 (China)
2013-08-15
The building energy performance improvement of large-scale public buildings is very important to release China's energy shortage pressure. The aim of the study is to find out the building energy saving potentials of large-scale public and commercial buildings by energy audit. In this paper, the energy consumption, energy performance, and audit were carried out for a typical commercial mall, the so-called largest mall in Asia, located in a hot-summer and warm-winter climate zone. The total annual energy consumption reaches 210.01 kWh/m{sup 2}, of which lighting energy consumption accounts for 30.03 kWh/m{sup 2} and the lift and elevator energy consumption accounts for 40.46 kWh/m{sup 2}. It is by far higher than that of the average building energy consumption in the same category. However, the annual heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption is only 87.19 kWh/m{sup 2} even though they run 24/7. It proves that the energy performance of the HVAC system is good. Therefore, the building energy savings potential mainly relies on reducing the excessive usage of lighting, lifts, and elevators.
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Mediavilla, Sonia; Gallardo-López, Victoria; González-Zurdo, Patricia; Escudero, Alfonso
2012-09-01
The competitive equilibrium between deciduous and perennial species in a new scenario of climate change may depend closely on the productivity of leaves along the different seasons of the year and on the morphological and chemical adaptations required for leaf survival during the different seasons. The aim of the present work was to analyze such adaptations in the leaves of three evergreen species ( Quercus ilex, Q. suber and Pinus pinaster) and their responses to between-site differences in the intensity of winter harshness. We explore the hypothesis that the harshness of winter would contribute to enhancing the leaf traits that allow them to persist under conditions of stress. The results revealed that as winter harshness increases a decrease in leaf size occurs in all three species, together with an increase in the content of nitrogen per unit leaf area and a greater leaf mass per unit area, which seems to be achieved only through increased thickness, with no associated changes in density. P. pinaster was the species with the most intense response to the harshening of winter conditions, undergoing a more marked thickening of its needles than the two Quercus species. Our findings thus suggest that lower winter temperatures involve an increase in the cost of leaf production of evergreen species, which must be taken into account in the estimation of the final cost and benefit balance of evergreens. Such cost increases would be more pronounced for those species that, like P. pinaster, show a stronger response to the winter cold.
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Climate warming and interannual variability of phytoplankton phenology in the Northern Red Sea
Gittings, John
2016-12-01
In agreement with global patterns of climate change and increasing temperatures in the tropical oceans, the Northern Red Sea (NRS) has been warming over the last few decades. Using 18 years of remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a data (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass), we investigate the potential impacts of climate warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in the Northern Red Sea by exploring the mechanistic links with the regional physical environment. The results of the analysis reveal that, in accordance with other tropical ecosystems, phytoplankton biomass in the NRS will decrease in response to warmer climate scenarios. This is attributed to lower heat fluxes (heat loss to the atmosphere) during the bloom period, and enhanced vertical stratification, which prevents vertical mixing of nutrients into the euphotic layer. In addition, we show that during warmer conditions (when heat fluxes are weakened), the winter bloom initiates significantly later (by up to 10 weeks) and its duration is considerably reduced. The biological implications of alterations to phytoplankton phenology may include increased larval mortality of pelagic species, reduced recruitment, fisheries impacts and changes to community structure.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Critchley, Roger; Gilbertson, Jan; Grimsley, Michael; Green, Geoff
2007-01-01
Objective: To investigate explanatory factors for persistent cold temperatures in homes which have received heating improvements. Design: Analysis of data from a national survey of dwellings and households (in England occupied by low-income residents) that had received heating improvements or repairs under the Warm Front Scheme. Methods: Over the winters of 2001-02 and 2002-03, householders recorded living room and main bedroom temperatures in a diary. Entries were examined for 888 households, which had received high level heating interventions. Two hundred and twenty-two households were identified as occupying cold homes, with mean bedroom temperature below 16 deg. C or mean living room temperatures below 18 deg. C. Binary logistic regression was used to model dwelling and household features and then occupants' behaviour and attitudes in the 'cold homes' sub-set compared with the remainder of the high intervention group. Seventy-nine supplementary, structured telephone interviews explored reasons given for lower temperatures. Using graphical and tabular methods, householders preferring cooler homes were distinguished from those who felt constrained in some way. Results: Cold homes predominate in pre-1930 properties where the householder remains dissatisfied with the heating system despite major improvements funded by Warm Front. Residents of cold homes are less likely to have long-standing illness or disability, but more likely to experience anxiety or depression. A small sample of telephone interviews reveals those preferring lower temperatures for health or other reasons, report less anxiety and depression than those with limited control over their home environment. Their 'thermal resistance' to higher temperatures challenges orthodox definitions of comfort and fuel poverty
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How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?
Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue
2017-01-01
Background Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises...
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The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations
Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.
2016-02-01
During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will
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Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Przybylak, R.
2014-01-01
Roč. 103, č. 4 (2014), s. 1163-1173 ISSN 1437-3254 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : surface processes * borehole temperatures * climatic warming * Little Ice Age * solar irradiation Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.093, year: 2014
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Cho, K. H.; Chang, E. C.
2017-12-01
In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments by utilizing the Global/Regional Integrated Model system with different conditions of the sea ice concentration over the Kara-Barents (KB) Sea in autumn, which can affect winter temperature variability over East Asia. Prescribed sea ice conditions are 1) climatological autumn sea ice concentration obtained from 1982 to 2016, 2) reduced autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of the climatology, and 3) increased autumn sea ice concentration by 50% of climatology. Differently prescribed sea ice concentration changes surface albedo, which affects surface heat fluxes and near-surface air temperature. The reduced (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea increases (decreases) near-surface air temperature that leads the lower (higher) sea level pressure in autumn. These patterns are maintained from autumn to winter season. Furthermore, it is shown that the different sea ice concentration over the KB sea has remote effects on the sea level pressure patterns over the East Asian region. The lower (higher) sea level pressure over the KB sea by the locally decreased (increased) ice concentration is related to the higher (lower) pressure pattern over the Siberian region, which induces strengthened (weakened) cold advection over the East Asian region. From these sensitivity experiments it is clarified that the decreased (increased) sea ice concentration over the KB sea in autumn can lead the colder (warmer) surface air temperature over East Asia in winter.
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Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong
2018-02-01
To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.
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Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming
Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore
2009-01-01
Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762
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Trahan, Matthew W; Schubert, Brian A
2016-02-01
The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2 ) and temperature on high-latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ(13) C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree-ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth-century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ(13) C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high-latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth-Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ(13) C in response to twentieth century pCO2 rise, a significant negative relationship (r = -0.53, P forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO2 . We conclude that annual tree-ring records from northern high-latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and pCO2 rise across the twentieth century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel
features. The second objective was to explore the potential use of reservoirs to maintain an ideal stream temperature regime to ameliorate the temperature effects of climate warming of air temperature. For proof-of-concept, the model is applied to Lake Spaulding in the Upper Yuba River. With selective withdrawal, the model hedges the release of cold water to decrease summer stream temperatures, but at a cost of warmer stream temperatures in the winter. Results also show that selective withdrawal can reduce, but not eliminate, the temperature effects of climate warming. The model can be extended to include other nearby reservoirs to optimally manage releases from multiple reservoirs for multiple downstream temperature targets in a highly interconnected system. While the outcomes of these studies contribute to our understanding of reservoir management and hydropower at the intersection of energy, water management, ecosystems, and climate warming, there are many opportunities to improve this work. Promising options for improving and building on the collective utility of these studies are presented.
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Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Strandberg, Gustav; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Jacob, Daniela; Keuler, Klaus; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; Schär, Christoph; Somot, Samuel; Sørland, Silje Lund; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert
2018-05-01
We investigate European regional climate change for time periods when the global mean temperature has increased by 1.5 and 2 °C compared to pre-industrial conditions. Results are based on regional downscaling of transient climate change simulations for the 21st century with global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth-phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We use an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations undertaken at a computational grid of 12.5 km horizontal resolution covering Europe. The ensemble consists of a range of RCMs that have been used for downscaling different GCMs under the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. The results indicate considerable near-surface warming already at the lower 1.5 °C of warming. Regional warming exceeds that of the global mean in most parts of Europe, being the strongest in the northernmost parts of Europe in winter and in the southernmost parts of Europe together with parts of Scandinavia in summer. Changes in precipitation, which are less robust than the ones in temperature, include increases in the north and decreases in the south with a borderline that migrates from a northerly position in summer to a southerly one in winter. Some of these changes are already seen at 1.5 °C of warming but are larger and more robust at 2 °C. Changes in near-surface wind speed are associated with a large spread among individual ensemble members at both warming levels. Relatively large areas over the North Atlantic and some parts of the continent show decreasing wind speed while some ocean areas in the far north show increasing wind speed. The changes in temperature, precipitation and wind speed are shown to be modified by changes in mean sea level pressure, indicating a strong relationship with the large-scale circulation and its internal variability on decade-long timescales. By comparing to a larger ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs we find that the RCMs can alter the results, leading either to
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Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem
Gittings, John; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Krokos, George; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2018-01-01
In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.
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Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem
Gittings, John
2018-01-29
In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.
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Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth
Mauritsen, Thorsten
2016-12-01
The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.
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Rozas, Vicente; García-González, Ignacio
2012-09-01
The properties of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Niña years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Niña years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.
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Is global warming mostly at night?
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kukla, G.; Quayle, R.G.; Karl, T.
1994-01-01
The release of greenhouse gases is expected to lead to substantial future warming. The global mean temperature has indeed risen in recent decades. The causes of the observed warming, and its relation to the greenhouse gas buildup are, however, still debated. One important aspect of the observed temperature change relates to its asymmetry during the day and night. The day-night temperature difference over land in North America, most of Eurasia, Oceania, and portions of Africa and Australia shows a decrease since about 1950. The changes of the daily mean temperature in these areas are principally due to the rising night or early morning temperature, and are accompanied by increasing cloudiness. Their results support the notion that the increase of cloud cover, possibly due to industrial sulfur emissions, mitigates the greenhouse warming. The causes of the changing diurnal temperature range and of the increasing cloudiness will have to be clarified and the future SO 2 emissions reliably projected before any trustworthy prediction of future climates can be made. 37 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs
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Matichuk, Rebecca; Tonnesen, Gail; Luecken, Deborah; Gilliam, Rob; Napelenok, Sergey L.; Baker, Kirk R.; Schwede, Donna; Murphy, Ben; Helmig, Detlev; Lyman, Seth N.; Roselle, Shawn
2017-12-01
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high-ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozone (O3) and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements across the basin. Contrary to other wintertime Uinta Basin studies, predicted nitrogen oxides (NOx) were typically low compared to measurements. Increases to oil and gas VOC emissions resulted in O3 predictions closer to observations, and nighttime O3 improved when reducing the deposition velocity for all chemical species. Vertical structures of these pollutants were similar to observations on multiple days. However, the predicted surface layer VOC mixing ratios were generally found to be underestimated during the day and overestimated at night. While temperature profiles compared well to observations, WRF was found to have a warm temperature bias and too low nighttime mixing heights. Analyses of more realistic snow heat capacity in WRF to account for the warm bias and vertical mixing resulted in improved temperature profiles, although the improved temperature profiles seldom resulted in improved O3 profiles. While additional work is needed to investigate meteorological impacts, results suggest that the uncertainty in the oil and gas emissions contributes more to the underestimation of O3. Further, model adjustments based on a single site may not be suitable across all sites within the basin.
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Sawall, Yvonne
2015-01-01
Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12 degrees latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5 degrees N, 21-27 degrees C) and southern (16.5 degrees N, 28-33 degrees C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29 degrees C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals
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Bendl, Jan; Hovorka, Jan
2017-12-01
The planetary boundary layer is a dynamic system with turbulent flow where horizontal and vertical air mixing depends mainly on the weather conditions and geomorphology. Normally, air temperature from the Earth surface decreases with height but inversion situation may occur, mainly during winter. Pollutant dispersion is poor during inversions so air pollutant concentration can quickly rise, especially in urban closed valleys. Air pollution was evaluated by WHO as a human carcinogen (mostly by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) and health effects are obvious. Knowledge about inversion layer height is important for estimation of the pollution impact and it can give us also information about the air pollution sources. Temperature and relative humidity vertical profiles complement ground measurements. Ground measurements were conducted to characterize comprehensively urban airshed in Svermov, residential district of the city of Kladno, about 30 km NW of Prague, from the 2nd Feb. to the 3rd of March 2016. The Svermov is an air pollution hot-spot for long time benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) limit exceedances, reaching the highest B[a]P annual concentration in Bohemia - west part of the Czech Republic. Since the Svermov sits in a shallow valley, frequent vertical temperature inversion in winter and low emission heights of pollution sources prevent pollutant dispersal off the valley. Such orography is common to numerous small settlements in the Czech Republic. Ground measurements at the sports field in the Svermov were complemented by temperature and humidity vertical profiles acquired by a Vaisala radiosonde positioned at tethered He-filled balloon. Total number of 53 series of vertical profiles up to the height of 300 m was conducted. Meteorology parameters were acquired with 4 Hz frequency. The measurements confirmed frequent early-morning and night formation of temperature inversion within boundary layer up to the height of 50 m. This rather shallow inversion had significant
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Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao, Yang; Leung, L Ruby; Lu, Jian; Masato, Giacomo
2015-01-01
This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North America, but the percentage change is consistently smaller from western Canada to the upper mid-western US with historically more frequent CAO. By decomposing the changes of the probability density function of daily surface temperature into changes due to mean warming and changes in standard deviation (std) and skewness/higher order moments, the contributions of each factor to CAO changes are quantified. Results show that CAO changes can be explained largely by the mean warming, but the decrease in temperature std contributes to about 20% reduction of CAO from Alaska to northeastern US and eastern Canada possibly due to the Arctic amplification and weakening of storm track. A thermodynamical modulation of the skewness called the ‘0 °C mode’ effect is found to operate prominently along the 0 °C isotherm hemispherically and reduce CAO in western and northeastern US with winter snow cover by up to 10%. This effect also produces a manifold increase in CAO events over the Arctic sea ice. An increased frequency in atmospheric blocking also contributes to increases in CAO duration over Alaska and the Arctic region. Regional simulations revealed more contributions of existing snowpack to CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern US, and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern US, the top five most extreme CAO events may still occur, and wind chill will continue to have societal impacts in that region. (letter)
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TOPEX/El Nino Watch - El Nino Warm Water Pool Decreasing, Jan, 08, 1998
1998-01-01
This image of the Pacific Ocean was produced using sea surface height measurements taken by the U.S.-French TOPEX/Poseidon satellite. The image shows sea surface height relative to normal ocean conditions on Jan. 8, 1998, and sea surface height is an indicator of the heat content of the ocean. The volume of the warm water pool related to the El Nino has decreased by about 40 percent since its maximum in early November, but the area of the warm water pool is still about one and a half times the size of the continental United States. The volume measurements are computed as the sum of all the sea surface height changes as compared to normal ocean conditions. In addition, the maximum water temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific, as measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is still higher than normal. Until these high temperatures diminish, the El Nino warm water pool still has great potential to disrupt global weather because the high water temperatures directly influence the atmosphere. Oceanographers believe the recent decrease in the size of the warm water pool is a normal part of El Nino's natural rhythm. TOPEX/Poseidon has been tracking these fluctuations of the El Nino warm pool since it began in early 1997. These sea surface height measurements have provided scientists with their first detailed view of how El Nino's warm pool behaves because the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite measures the changing sea surface height with unprecedented precision. In this image, the white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage; in the white areas, the sea surface is between 14 and 32 centimeters (6 to 13 inches) above normal; in the red areas, it's about 10 centimeters (4 inches) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions, while purple (the western Pacific) means at least 18 centimeters (7 inches) below normal sea level.The El Nino phenomenon is thought to be triggered when the steady westward blowing trade winds weaken
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Low flows and water temperature risks to Asian coal power plants in a warming world
Wang, Y.; Byers, E.; Parkinson, S.; Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Bielicki, J. M.
2017-12-01
Thermoelectric power generation requires cooling, normally provided by wet cooling systems. The withdrawal and discharge of cooling water are subject to regulation. Therefore, operation of power plants may be vulnerable to changes in streamflow and rises in water temperatures. In Asia, about 489 GW of coal-fired power plants are currently under construction, permitted, or announced. Using a comprehensive dataset of these planned coal power plants (PCPPs) and cooling water use models, we investigated whether electricity generation at these power plants will be limited by streamflow and water temperature. Daily streamflow and water temperature time series are from the high-resolution (0.08ox0.08o) runs of the PCRGLOBWB hydrological model, driven by downscaled meteorological forcing from five global climate models. We compared three climate change scenarios (1.5oC, 2oC, and 3oC warming in global mean temperature) and three cooling system choice scenarios (freshwater once-through, freshwater cooling tower, and "business-as-usual" - where a PCPP uses the same cooling system as the nearest existing coal power plant). The potential available capacity of the PCPPs increase slightly from the 1.5oC to the 2oC and 3oC warming scenario due to increase in streamflow. The once-through cooling scenario results in virtually zero available capacity at the PCPPs. The other two cooling scenarios result in about 20% of the planned capacity being unavailable under all warming scenarios. Hotspots of the most water-limited PCPPs are in Pakistan, northwestern India, northwestern and north-central China, and northern Vietnam, where most of the PCPPs will face 30% to 90% unavailable nameplate capacity on annual average. Since coal power plants cannot operate effectively when the capacity factor falls below a minimum load level (about 20% to 50%), the actual limitation on generation capacity would be larger. In general, the PCPPs that will have the highest limitation on annual average
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Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stainforth, David A; Chapman, Sandra C; Watkins, Nicholas W
2013-01-01
Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 ° C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic temperature distributions across Europe since 1950. The provision of such information from observations is valuable to support decisions designed to be robust in today’s climate, while also providing data against which climate forecasting methods can be judged and interpreted. The general statement that the hottest summer days are warming faster than the coolest is made decision relevant by exposing how the regions of greatest warming are quantile and threshold dependent. In a band from Northern France to Denmark, where the response is greatest, the hottest days in the temperature distribution have seen changes of at least 2 ° C, over four times the global mean change over the same period. In winter the coldest nights are warming fastest, particularly in Scandinavia. (letter)
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David T Booth
Full Text Available For sea turtles nesting on beaches surrounded by coral reefs, the most important element of hatchling recruitment is escaping predation by fish as they swim across the fringing reef, and as a consequence hatchlings that minimize their exposure to fish predation by minimizing the time spent crossing the fringing reef have a greater chance of surviving the reef crossing. One way to decrease the time required to cross the fringing reef is to maximize swimming speed. We found that both water temperature and nest temperature influence swimming performance of hatchling green turtles, but in opposite directions. Warm water increases swimming ability, with hatchling turtles swimming in warm water having a faster stroke rate, while an increase in nest temperature decreases swimming ability with hatchlings from warm nests producing less thrust per stroke.
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Hindle, Allyson G.; Martin, Sandra L.
2013-01-01
13-lined ground squirrels, Ictidomys tridecemlineatus, are obligate hibernators that transition annually between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy – wherein they exploit episodic torpor bouts. Despite cerebral ischemia during torpor and rapid reperfusion during arousal, hibernator brains resist damage and the animals emerge neurologically intact each spring. We hypothesized that protein changes in the brain underlie winter neuroprotection. To identify candidate proteins, we applied a sensitive 2D gel electrophoresis method to quantify protein differences among forebrain extracts prepared from ground squirrels in two summer, four winter and fall transition states. Proteins that differed among groups were identified using LC-MS/MS. Only 84 protein spots varied significantly among the defined states of hibernation. Protein changes in the forebrain proteome fell largely into two reciprocal patterns with a strong body temperature dependence. The importance of body temperature was tested in animals from the fall; these fall animals use torpor sporadically with body temperatures mirroring ambient temperatures between 4 and 21°C as they navigate the transition between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy. Unlike cold-torpid fall ground squirrels, warm-torpid individuals strongly resembled the homeotherms, indicating that the changes observed in torpid hibernators are defined by body temperature, not torpor per se. Metabolic enzymes were largely unchanged despite varied metabolic activity across annual and torpor-arousal cycles. Instead, the majority of the observed changes were cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators. While cytoskeletal structural proteins tended to differ seasonally, i.e., between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy, their regulatory proteins were more strongly affected by body temperature. Changes in the abundance of various isoforms of the microtubule assembly and disassembly regulatory proteins dihydropyrimidinase
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Allyson G Hindle
Full Text Available 13-lined ground squirrels, Ictidomys tridecemlineatus, are obligate hibernators that transition annually between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy - wherein they exploit episodic torpor bouts. Despite cerebral ischemia during torpor and rapid reperfusion during arousal, hibernator brains resist damage and the animals emerge neurologically intact each spring. We hypothesized that protein changes in the brain underlie winter neuroprotection. To identify candidate proteins, we applied a sensitive 2D gel electrophoresis method to quantify protein differences among forebrain extracts prepared from ground squirrels in two summer, four winter and fall transition states. Proteins that differed among groups were identified using LC-MS/MS. Only 84 protein spots varied significantly among the defined states of hibernation. Protein changes in the forebrain proteome fell largely into two reciprocal patterns with a strong body temperature dependence. The importance of body temperature was tested in animals from the fall; these fall animals use torpor sporadically with body temperatures mirroring ambient temperatures between 4 and 21°C as they navigate the transition between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy. Unlike cold-torpid fall ground squirrels, warm-torpid individuals strongly resembled the homeotherms, indicating that the changes observed in torpid hibernators are defined by body temperature, not torpor per se. Metabolic enzymes were largely unchanged despite varied metabolic activity across annual and torpor-arousal cycles. Instead, the majority of the observed changes were cytoskeletal proteins and their regulators. While cytoskeletal structural proteins tended to differ seasonally, i.e., between summer homeothermy and winter heterothermy, their regulatory proteins were more strongly affected by body temperature. Changes in the abundance of various isoforms of the microtubule assembly and disassembly regulatory proteins
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Bullón
2008-12-01
Full Text Available This paper studies the winter temperatures of the second part of the sixteenth century in the central area of the Iberian Peninsula. A large number of historical documents that are stored in many different Spanish archives were consulted in order to carry out this research. The data was first arranged and weighted according to the intensity and significance of the meteorological phenomena described and, subsequently, these values were assigned an ordinal index ranging from +4 to −4. The statistical treatment applied is based on the reconstruction of temperatures equivalent to this ordinal index, expressed as anomalies of the 1961–1990 period, belonging to a reference station located at the approximate geographical center of the area under study. The results show winter thermal conditions different from current ones that, for the most part, stay below the reference average and that occurred with a wide range of variability. The influence that thermal conditions had on the evolution of some environmental aspects are considered based on the forest exploitation problem information and on the wine harvest production.
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Warm Hydroforming of Lightweight Metal Sheets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Aginagalde, A.; Orus, A.; Esnaola, J. A.; Torca, I.; Galdos, L.; Garcia, C.
2007-01-01
Hydroforming is well known in steel applications for automotive industry, where complicated shapes can be get with high strength to weight ratios. Nevertheless, the poor formability of light alloys at room temperature has limited the application of hydroforming technology for aluminum and magnesium parts. Increasing the temperature of these materials allows substantially greater elongation without fracture. Warm forming strategy is applied in conventional processes, such as rolling and forging, in order to get complex shapes, but still rare in hydroforming technology. This is the technical base of this research project: the development of the hydroforming process at warm working temperatures. The main tasks of the initial phases of the research were the material characterization, and the heated fluid and tooling system design and set up for warm hydroforming of lightweight alloys. Once these goals were accomplished the present paper shows the obtained results. The uniaxial tensile deformation of 5754H111, 6082-T6, 6082-O and AZ31B at the temperature range of 25 deg. C - 250 deg. C is presented as the output of the material characterization task. Both the system features and the results obtained for a bulge test geometry carried out with a warm hydroforming system are also presented. The selected alloys show an improvement in formability at the studied temperature range under both uniaxial and biaxial state of stress
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Potapova G. N.
2017-10-01
Full Text Available the winter wheat and triticale in the middle part of the Ural Mountains haven’t been seeded before. The technology of winter crop cultivation should be improved due to the production of new varieties of winter rye. Winter hardiness and yield of winter rye are higher in comparison with winter triticale and especially with winter wheat. The sowing period and the seeding rate influence the amount of yield and winter hardiness. The winter hardiness of winter cereals and the yield of the rye variety Iset sowed on August 25 and the yield of the triticale variety Bashkir short-stalked and wheat Kazanskaya 560 sowed on August 15 were higher. It is important to sow winter grain in local conditions in the second half of August. The sowing this period allows to provide plants with the necessary amount of positive temperatures (450–500 °C. This helps the plants to form 3–4 shoots of tillering and a mass of 10 dry plants reaching 3–5 grams. The winter grain crops in the middle part of the Ural Mountains should be sown with seeding rates of 6 and 7 million of sprouting grains per 1 ha, and the seeds must be cultivated with fungicidal preparation before seeding.
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Winter-to-winter variations in indoor radon
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mose, D.G.; Mushrush, G.W.; Kline, S.W.
1989-01-01
Indoor radon concentrations in northern Virginia and central Maryland show a strong dependence on weather. Winter tends to be associated with higher than average indoor radon, and summer with lower than average. However, compared to the winter of 1986-1987, the winter of 1987-1988 was warmer and drier. Consequently, winter-to-winter indoor radon decreased by about 25%. This winter-to-winter decrease is unexpectedly large, and simulates winter-to-summer variations that have been reported
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Xu, Xinping; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun
2018-03-01
The connection between Eurasian snow cover (SC) in autumn and Eurasian winter mean surface air temperature (SAT) has been identified by many studies. However, some recent observations indicate that early and late winter climate sometimes shows an out-of-phase relationship, suggesting that the winter mean situation might obscure the important relationships that are relevant for scientific research and applications. This study investigates the relationship between October northern Eurasian SC (NESC; 58°-68°N, 30°-90°E) and Eurasian SAT during the winter months and finds a significant relationship only exists in January. Generally, following reduced October NESC, the East Asian trough and Ural high are intensified in January, and anomalous northeasterly winds prevail in mid-latitudes, causing cold anomalies over Eurasia. Meanwhile, anomalous southwesterly winds along the northern fringe of the Ural high favor warm anomalies in the Arctic. The dynamical mechanism for the connection between NESC in October and the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) anomaly in January is further investigated from the perspective of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity. It is found that planetary waves with zonal wavenumber-1 (ZWN1) play a dominant role in this process. Specifically, the ZWN1 pattern of planetary-scale waves concurrent with October NESC anomaly extends from the surface to the upper-stratosphere. It persists in the stratosphere through November-December and propagates downward to the surface by the following January, making the connection between October NESC and January climate possible. Additionally, the influence of October NESC on the January WACE pattern has intensified since the early-2000s.
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A real-time Global Warming Index.
Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J
2017-11-13
We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.
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Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.
2014-01-01
Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to
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Chen, Shangfeng; Song, Linye
2018-06-01
This study analyzes the impact of the winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) on the surface air temperature (SAT) variations over Eurasia and North America based on six different NPO indices. Results show that the influences of the winter NPO on the SAT over Eurasia and North America are sensitive to the definition of the NPO index. The impact of the winter NPO on the SAT variations over Eurasia (North America) is significant (insignificant) when the anticyclonic anomaly associated with the NPO index over the North Pacific midlatitudes shifts westward and pronounced northerly wind anomalies appear around Lake Baikal. By contrast, the impact of the winter NPO on the SAT variations over Eurasia (North America) is insignificant (significant) when the anticyclonic anomaly over the North Pacific related to the NPO index shifts eastward and the associated northerly wind anomalies to its eastern flank extend to North America. The present study suggests that the NPO definition should be taken into account when analyzing the impact of the winter NPO on Eurasian and North American SAT variations.
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Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn
2002-01-01
The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....
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DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rinnan, Riikka; Rousk, Johannes; Yergeau, Etienne
2009-01-01
°38'W) and the Falkland Islands (51 °76'S 59 °03'W). At each location, experimental plots were subjected to warming by open top chambers (OTCs) and paired with control plots on vegetated and fell-field habitats. The bacterial communities were adapted to the mean annual temperature of their environment...
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Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong
2013-01-01
Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.
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Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.
2017-12-01
Using 69 years of historical data from 1948-2017, we developed a method to globally search for sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) predictors of regional terrestrial precipitation. We then applied this method to build an autumn (SON) SSS and SST-based 3-month lead predictive model of winter (DJF) precipitation in southwestern United States. We also find that SSS-only models perform better than SST-only models. We previously used an arbitrary correlation coefficient (r) threshold, |r| > 0.25, to define SSS and SST predictor polygons for best subset regression of southwestern US winter precipitation; from preliminary sensitivity tests, we find that |r| > 0.18 yields the best models. The observed below-average precipitation (0.69 mm/day) in winter 2015-2016 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the prediction model. However, the model underestimates the anomalous high precipitation (1.78 mm/day) in winter 2016-2017 by more than three-fold. Moisture transport mainly attributed to "pineapple express" atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter 2016-2017 suggests that the model falls short on a sub-seasonal scale, in which case storms from ARs contribute a significant portion of seasonal terrestrial precipitation. Further, we identify a potential mechanism for long-range SSS and precipitation teleconnections: standing Rossby waves. The heat applied to the atmosphere from anomalous tropical rainfall can generate standing Rossby waves that propagate to higher latitudes. SSS anomalies may be indicative of anomalous tropical rainfall, and by extension, standing Rossby waves that provide the long-range teleconnections.
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Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
James E. Overland
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Vadodaria, K.; Loveday, D.L.; Haines, V.
2014-01-01
This paper presents a review and synthesis of average winter and spring-time indoor temperatures in UK homes measured over the period 1969–2010. Analysis of measured temperatures in a sample of solid wall dwellings in the UK, conducted as part of the CALEBRE research project, is included. The review suggests that, for periods when occupation was likely, there has been little or no increase in winter and spring-time average living room temperatures over the last 40 years, with average recorded living room temperatures having been historically lower than the WHO-recommended value of 21 °C. Correspondingly, for periods of likely occupation, average bedroom temperatures appear to have increased. Compared with non-domestic buildings, there have been fewer investigations of domestic thermal comfort, either in the UK or elsewhere, and hence the paper also calls for further detailed investigations of domestic indoor temperatures during occupied hours together with thermal comfort evaluations in order to better understand domestic thermal environments. Based on suggestions from the limited range of studies available to date, living room temperatures may need to be maintained within the range 20–22 °C for thermal satisfaction, though this requires confirmation through further research. The study also emphasises that improving the energy efficiency of homes should be the primary means to effect any increases in indoor temperatures that are deemed essential. Considerations for future policy are discussed. - Highlights: • We review indoor temperatures measured in UK homes during 1960-2010. • We present analysis of temperature recorded by our study in 20 UK homes. • Little or no increase observed in living room temperatures for the last 40 years. • Occupied bedroom temperatures appear to have increased. • Living room temperatures have been historically lower than the WHO guidelines
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Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David
2012-01-01
Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.
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Reproductive arrest and stress resistance in winter-acclimated Drosophila suzukii.
Toxopeus, Jantina; Jakobs, Ruth; Ferguson, Laura V; Gariepy, Tara D; Sinclair, Brent J
2016-06-01
Overwintering insects must survive the multiple-stress environment of winter, which includes low temperatures, reduced food and water availability, and cold-active pathogens. Many insects overwinter in diapause, a developmental arrest associated with high stress tolerance. Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae), spotted wing drosophila, is an invasive agricultural pest worldwide. Its ability to overwinter and therefore establish in temperate regions could have severe implications for fruit crop industries. We demonstrate here that laboratory populations of Canadian D. suzukii larvae reared under short-day, low temperature, conditions develop into dark 'winter morph' adults similar to those reported globally from field captures, and observed by us in southern Ontario, Canada. These winter-acclimated adults have delayed reproductive maturity, enhanced cold tolerance, and can remain active at low temperatures, although they do not have the increased desiccation tolerance or survival of fungal pathogen challenges that might be expected from a more heavily melanised cuticle. Winter-acclimated female D. suzukii have underdeveloped ovaries and altered transcript levels of several genes associated with reproduction and stress. While superficially indicative of reproductive diapause, the delayed reproductive maturity of winter-acclimated D. suzukii appears to be temperature-dependent, not regulated by photoperiod, and is thus unlikely to be 'true' diapause. The traits of this 'winter morph', however, likely facilitate overwintering in southern Canada, and have probably contributed to the global success of this fly as an invasive species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic
2015-01-01
The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours
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Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.
Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban
2013-01-01
The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.
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Pearce, Brett; Mattheyse, Linda; Ellard, Louise; Desmond, Fiona; Pillai, Param; Weinberg, Laurence
2018-01-01
Background The avoidance of hypothermia is vital during prolonged and open surgery to improve patient outcomes. Hypothermia is particularly common during orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and associated with undesirable physiological effects that can adversely impact on perioperative morbidity. The KanMed WarmCloud (Bromma, Sweden) is a revolutionary, closed-loop, warm-air heating mattress developed to maintain normothermia and prevent pressure sores during major surgery. The clinical effectiveness of the WarmCloud device during OLT is unknown. Therefore, we conducted a randomized controlled trial to determine whether the WarmCloud device reduces hypothermia and prevents pressure injuries compared with the Bair Hugger underbody warming device. Methods Patients were randomly allocated to receive either the WarmCloud or Bair Hugger warming device. Both groups also received other routine standardized multimodal thermoregulatory strategies. Temperatures were recorded by nasopharyngeal temperature probe at set time points during surgery. The primary endpoint was nasopharyngeal temperature recorded 5 minutes before reperfusion. Secondary endpoints included changes in temperature over the predefined intraoperative time points, number of patients whose nadir temperature was below 35.5°C and the development of pressure injuries during surgery. Results Twenty-six patients were recruited with 13 patients randomized to each group. One patient from the WarmCloud group was excluded because of a protocol violation. Baseline characteristics were similar. The mean (standard deviation) temperature before reperfusion was 36.0°C (0.7) in the WarmCloud group versus 36.3°C (0.6) in the Bairhugger group (P = 0.25). There were no statistical differences between the groups for any of the secondary endpoints. Conclusions When combined with standardized multimodal thermoregulatory strategies, the WarmCloud device does not reduce hypothermia compared with the Bair Hugger device in
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Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F
2014-01-01
The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections
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Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan
2015-01-01
Roč. 104, č. 6 (2015), s. 1563-1571 ISSN 1437-3254 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP210/11/0183 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : surface processes * borehole temperatures * climatic warming * Ice Age * heat flow Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.133, year: 2015
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.
1995-01-01
This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broeker, W.S.
1992-01-01
Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing
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Liu, Yang; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Wang, Huijun; Zhu, Yali
2017-12-01
Based on long-term reanalysis datasets, this study revealed that the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) is significant negative during 1925-1945 and 1985-2005 (significant periods; hereafter SPs) whereas insignificant during 1900-1920 and 1955-1975 (insignificant periods; ISPs). The unstable AO-EAJS relationship might be related to the interdecadal change of AO's spatial structure. During SPs winters, anomalous positive AO events are characterized by atmospheric negative anomalies in the Arctic with two anomalous positive centers located in the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific, exhibiting a quasi-barotropic structure. By contrast, the anomalous center in the North Pacific is barely observed during ISPs winters. Further analysis indicated that such interdecadal change might be attributed to change of troposphere-stratosphere coupling and the North Pacific air-sea interaction. On the one hand, anomalous AO at surface is closely related to obvious planetary waves downward from the stratosphere during SPs, which favors the subtropics-Arctic teleconnection. On the other hand, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shows warm phase during SPs, which induces larger variance of the Aleutian Low and more intensive divergence anomalies at upper level troposphere. Due to the advection of vorticity induced by stronger divergence is favorable for stronger Rossby wave source, the Rossby wave activity is much stronger and could further propagate eastward to the North Atlantic during SPs, resulting in the Pacific-Atlantic teleconnection. Such a mechanism is supported by the numerical simulations from two individual models that are perturbed by warm/cold IPO sea surface temperature anomalies.
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Warm-up and performance in competitive swimming.
Neiva, Henrique P; Marques, Mário C; Barbosa, Tiago M; Izquierdo, Mikel; Marinho, Daniel A
2014-03-01
Warm-up before physical activity is commonly accepted to be fundamental, and any priming practices are usually thought to optimize performance. However, specifically in swimming, studies on the effects of warm-up are scarce, which may be due to the swimming pool environment, which has a high temperature and humidity, and to the complexity of warm-up procedures. The purpose of this study is to review and summarize the different studies on how warming up affects swimming performance, and to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of warm-up before competition. Most of the main proposed effects of warm-up, such as elevated core and muscular temperatures, increased blood flow and oxygen delivery to muscle cells and higher efficiency of muscle contractions, support the hypothesis that warm-up enhances performance. However, while many researchers have reported improvements in performance after warm-up, others have found no benefits to warm-up. This lack of consensus emphasizes the need to evaluate the real effects of warm-up and optimize its design. Little is known about the effectiveness of warm-up in competitive swimming, and the variety of warm-up methods and swimming events studied makes it difficult to compare the published conclusions about the role of warm-up in swimming. Recent findings have shown that warm-up has a positive effect on the swimmer's performance, especially for distances greater than 200 m. We recommend that swimmers warm-up for a relatively moderate distance (between 1,000 and 1,500 m) with a proper intensity (a brief approach to race pace velocity) and recovery time sufficient to prevent the early onset of fatigue and to allow the restoration of energy reserves (8-20 min).
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Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming
Feng, Xiao
2018-04-01
In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.
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Slow Warming of the Northern South China Sea during the Last Deglaciation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomoya Shintani
2008-01-01
Full Text Available We have generated a record of alkenone sea surface temperatures (SSTs during the last 28000 years from Core MD97-2146 for the northern South China Sea (SCS. The SST record showed a typical pattern for change in the northern SCS SST. The SST during the LGM was ~25 C, this decreased to ~24 C to 17 ka, increased to ~25.5 C to 14.5 ka, decreased again to ~24.5 C to 11.8 ka, increased gradually to ~27 C to 6 ka, and then increased more gradually to reach ~27.5 C at present. The SST difference ( SSTNSCS = SSTMD97-2146 - SSTMD97-2141 between Cores MD97-2146 (the northern SCS; this study and MD97-2141 (the Sulu Sea; Rosenthal et al. 2003 was used to characterize the SST changes in the northern SCS relative to changes in the adjacent WTPregion. The SSTNSCS decreased from 21 to 11.8 ka and increased after 11.8 ka, indicating slower warming of the northern SCS during the last deglaciation than that of the adjacent western tropical Pacific region.We infer that the slow warming of the northern SCS was principally a result of stronger winter monsoon during the last deglaciation and early Holocene. In addition, the cool water inflow through the Taiwan Strait after 13 ka and the warm water inflow through the Sunda Shelf after 11 ka could influence the SST in the northern SCS.
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rutlant, J.; Aceituno, P.
1991-05-01
The possibility of detecting easterly propagating low frequency signals in the Southern Hemispheric circulation is explored in connection with the assessment of a possible seasonal rainfall forecast in central Chile. The analysis has focused on the seasonal variability associated with the biennial component of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and on the one resulting from superimposed intraseasonal oscillations, in relation with winter precipitation and individual rainfall events, respectively. Based on a previous work, relating wet winters to frequent blocks to the SW of South America during warm events of the SO, time-longitude cross sections of a 5-day average blocking index (BI) calculated from ECMWF 200 hPa daily hemispheric analyses for the period 1980-1987 are presented. A general eastward displacement of western and central Pacific positive BI areas seems to characterize the developing phase of warm SO events and vice versa, while intraseasonal variability patterns appear to be related to single rainstorms, either when the positive BI phase of the wave amplifies while crossing the western Pacific or when it reaches the far southeastern Pacific, frequently with a double block structure. It is concluded that the behaviour of both sources of variability is consistent with previously described teleconnection patterns for ENSO events in the southern winter, and that a primary prospect for winter precipitation and for the occurrence of relatively large individual rainstorms in central Chile could be obtained following the filtered BI and 500 hPa height anomalies in both time scales during the fall season. (author). 28 refs, 12 figs
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Coming to grips with nuclear winter
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Scherr, S.J.
1985-01-01
This editorial examines the politics related to the concept of nuclear winter which is a term used to describe temperature changes brought on by the injection of smoke into the atmosphere by the massive fires set off by nuclear explosions. The climate change alone could cause crop failures and lead to massive starvation. The author suggests that the prospect of a nuclear winter should be a deterrent to any nuclear exchange
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Kumar, Parveen; McDonald, Gerren K; Chitkara, Radhika; Steinman, Alan M; Gardiner, Phillip F; Giesbrecht, Gordon G
2015-09-01
The purpose of the study was to determine the effectiveness of Fluidotherapy rewarming through the distal extremities for mildly hypothermic, vigorously shivering subjects. Fluidotherapy is a dry heat modality in which cellulose particles are suspended by warm air circulation. Seven subjects (2 female) were cooled on 3 occasions in 8˚C water for 60 minutes, or to a core temperature of 35°C. They were then dried and rewarmed in a seated position by 1) shivering only; 2) Fluidotherapy applied to the distal extremities (46 ± 1°C, mean ± SD); or 3) water immersion of the distal extremities (44 ± 1°C). The order of rewarming followed a balanced design. Esophageal temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, oxygen consumption, and heat flux were measured. The warm water produced the highest rewarming rate, 6.1°C·h(-1), 95% CI: 5.3-6.9, compared with Fluidotherapy, 2.2°C·h(-1), 95% CI: 1.4-3.0, and shivering only, 2.0°C·h(-1), 95% CI: 1.2-2.8. The Fluidotherapy and warm water conditions increased skin temperature and inhibited shivering heat production, thus reducing metabolic heat production (166 ± 42 W and 181 ± 45 W, respectively), compared with shivering only (322 ± 142 W). Warm water provided a significantly higher net heat gain (398.0 ± 52 W) than shivering only (288.4 ± 115 W). Fluidotherapy was not as effective as warm water for rewarming mildly hypothermic subjects. Although Fluidotherapy is more portable and technically simpler, it provides a lower rate of rewarming that is similar to shivering only. It does help decrease shivering heat production, lowering energy expenditure and cardiac work, and could be considered in a hospital setting, if convenient. Copyright © 2015 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ionuț RACZ
2017-05-01
Full Text Available The global acceleration warm conditions determine an additional stress for plant growth and development stages with a high impact on plant grain yield performances. During five experimental years the climatic conditions varied quite a lot so that the main productivity elements: the number of grains/spike, weight of grains per spike and number of spikes per square meter had different values which influencing final grain yield. Analyzing the relationship between rainfall/temperature and grain yield, including its components, can be observed a strong relation between those especially in the first growth stages (from plant emergence and vegetative restarting in early spring. Climatic conditions have manifested an important influence also in the last phenophases of winter triticale plant with a negative influence on grain yield. Being a process of long duration, grain yield formation is strongly affected by temperature (r=0.89 and rainfall conditions (r=0.45.
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Herrera, Ramón
2017-05-01
A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.
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Large-scale circulation associated with moisture intrusions into the Arctic during winter
Woods, Cian; Caballero, Rodrigo; Svensson, Gunilla
2014-05-01
Observations during recent decades show that there is a greater near surface warming occurring in the Arctic, particularly during winter, than at lower latitudes. Understanding the mechanisms controlling surface temperature in the Arctic is therefore an important priority in climate research. The surface energy budget is a key proximate control on Arctic surface temperature. During winter, insolation is low or absent and the atmospheric boundary layer is typically very stable, limiting turbulent hear exchange, so that the surface energy budget is almost entirely governed by longwave radiation. The net surface longwave radiation (NetLW) at this time has a strikingly bimodal distribution: conditions oscillate between a 'radiatively clear' state with rapid surface heat loss and a "moist cloudy" state with NetLW ˜ 0 W m-2. Each state can persist for days or weeks at a time but transitions between them happen in a matter of hours. This distribution of NetLW has important implications for the Arctic climate, as even a small shift in the frequency of occupancy of each state would be enough to significantly affect the overall surface energy budget and thus winter sea ice thickness. The clear and cloudy states typically occur during periods of relatively high and low surface pressure respectively, suggesting a link with synoptic-scale dynamics. This suggestion is consistent with previous studies indicating that the formation of low-level and mid-level clouds over the Arctic Ocean is typically associated with cyclonic activity and passing frontal systems . More recent work has shown that intense filamentary moisture intrusion events are a common feature in the Arctic and can induce large episodic increases of longwave radiation into the surface. The poleward transport of water vapor across 70N during boreal winter is examined in the ERA-Interim reanalysis product and 16 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, focusing on intense moisture
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Germination Shifts of C3 and C4 Species under Simulated Global Warming Scenario
Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei
2014-01-01
Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies. PMID:25137138
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Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.
Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei
2014-01-01
Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.
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Caro, S.P.; Schaper, S.V.; Dawson, A.; Sharp, P.; Gienapp, P.; Visser, M.E.
2013-01-01
Many bird species have advanced their seasonal timing in response to global warming, but we still know little about the causal effect of temperature. We carried out experiments in climate-controlled aviaries to investigate how temperature affects luteinizing hormone, prolactin, gonadal development,
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Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tiziana Di Lorenzo
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.
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Brazilian Coffee Production as Function of Global Warming.
Avila, A. M. H. D.; Pinto, H. S.; Alfonsi, E. L., Sr.; Alfonsi, W. M. V.; Pereira, V. R.
2016-12-01
According to the Brazilian Government the actual area of coffee production in the country is close to 2.25 million hectares. The sector involves 290.000 of farmers with a production of 44 million of 60 Kg bags in 2015. The Arabica Coffee specie is cultivated in the country where the climate condition are characterized by a year mean temperatures between 18°C and 22°C. Temperatures higher than 33°C can cause abortion of flowers during the spring season and reduce the production while lower than 18°C can be affected by frost during winter when the minimum temperature can be lower than 2°C in the shelter. For a better quality of the final product the winter, between July and August, must be dry with rainfall lower than 50 mm/month. The Ministry of Agriculture defines those conditions for the Official Coffee Climatic Risk Zoning. In 2002, a partnership with the British Embassy and 2 Brazilian institutions, i. e. the State University of Campinas - UNICAMP and the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation - Embrapa, published the study "Global Warming and the New Geography of Agricultural Production in Brazil" (Pinto and Assad, 2002). This study was based on the PRECIS/Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model future projections. The crop simulations indicated a decrease in the grain production due to temperature rise. Later in 2012, a new study was developed in cooperation with the World Bank to evaluate the future of nine main commodities in Brazil under climate change, including the Arabica coffee. The worst scenario considering any mitigation and adaptation action indicated that the two most affected crops would be the soybean and coffee, with a reduction of 22% and 6.7 % in the yield respectively. Field surveys to evaluate the historical spatial dynamic and migration of Arabica coffee cultivated areas confirmed the results of the previous studies and indicated a recent increase in the search for cooler altitude areas to plant coffee. Also the field observations
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Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn
2002-01-01
The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....
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Engel, C.; Weltzin, J.; Norby, R.
2004-12-01
Plant community composition and ecosystem function may be altered by global atmospheric and climate change, including increased atmospheric [CO2], temperature, and varying precipitation regimes. We are conducting an experiment at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) utilizing open-top chambers to administer experimental treatments of elevated CO2 (+300 ppm), warming (+ 3 degrees Celsius), and varying soil moisture availability to experimental plant communities constructed of seven common old-field species, including C3 and C4 grasses, forbs, and legumes. During 2004 we monitored plant community phenology (NDVI) and plant reproductive phenology. Early in the year, NDVI was greater in wet treatment plots, and was unaffected by main effects of temperature or CO2. This result suggests that early in the season warming is insufficient to affect early canopy development. Differences in soil moisture sustained throughout the winter and into early spring may constitute an important control on early canopy greenup. Elevated CO2 alleviated detrimental effects of warming on NDVI, but only early in the season. As ambient temperatures increased, elevated temperatures negatively impacted NDVI only in the dry plots. Wetter conditions ameliorate the effects of warming on canopy greenness during the warmer seasons of the year. Warming increased rates of bolting, number of inflorescences, and time to reproductive maturity for Andropogon virginicus (a C4 bunchgrass). Solidago Canadensis (a C3 late-season forb) also produced flowers earlier in elevated temperatures. Conversely, none of the C3 grasses and forbs that bolt or flower in late spring or early summer responded to temperature or CO2. Results indicate that warming and drought may impact plant community phenology, and plant species reproductive phenology. Clearly community phenology is driven by complex interactions among temperature, water, and CO2 that change throughout the season. Our data stresses the importance of
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Warming of intravenous and irrigation fluids for preventing inadvertent perioperative hypothermia.
Campbell, Gillian; Alderson, Phil; Smith, Andrew F; Warttig, Sheryl
2015-04-13
Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia (a drop in core temperature to below 36°C) occurs because of interference with normal temperature regulation by anaesthetic drugs, exposure of skin for prolonged periods and receipt of large volumes of intravenous and irrigation fluids. If the temperature of these fluids is below core body temperature, they can cause significant heat loss. Warming intravenous and irrigation fluids to core body temperature or above might prevent some of this heat loss and subsequent hypothermia. To estimate the effectiveness of preoperative or intraoperative warming, or both, of intravenous and irrigation fluids in preventing perioperative hypothermia and its complications during surgery in adults. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2014, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid SP (1956 to 4 February 2014), EMBASE Ovid SP (1982 to 4 February 2014), the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science (1950 to 4 February 2014), Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) EBSCOhost (1980 to 4 February 2014) and reference lists of identified articles. We also searched the Current Controlled Trials website and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials or quasi-randomized controlled trials comparing fluid warming methods versus standard care or versus other warming methods used to maintain normothermia. Two review authors independently extracted data from eligible trials and settled disputes with a third review author. We contacted study authors to ask for additional details when needed. We collected data on adverse events only if they were reported in the trials. We included in this review 24 studies with a total of 1250 participants. The trials included various numbers and types of participants. Investigators used a range of methods to warm fluids to temperatures between 37°C and 41°C. We found that evidence was of moderate quality because descriptions of trial design were
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The incidence of torpor in winter and summer in the Angolan free ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The incidence of torpor during summer and winter in response to cold exposure in Mops condylurus was studied in a subtropical environment. Body temperature changes under natural roosting conditions during winter and summer were monitored using bats fitted with temperature-sensitive radio transmitters.
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Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song
2018-05-01
The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.
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Fujii, Yoshiaki
2011-04-01
This study suggests that the cause of the stagnation in global warming in the mid 20th century was the atmospheric nuclear explosions detonated between 1945 and 1980. The estimated GST drop due to fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions based on the published simulation results by other researchers (a single column model and Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model) has served to explain the stagnation in global warming. Atmospheric nuclear explosions can be regarded as full-scale in situ tests for nuclear winter. The non-negligible amount of GST drop from the actual atmospheric explosions suggests that nuclear winter is not just a theory but has actually occurred, albeit on a small scale. The accuracy of the simulations of GST by IPCC would also be improved significantly by introducing the influence of fine dust from the actual atmospheric nuclear explosions into their climate models; thus, global warming behavior could be more accurately predicted.
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Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing
Bintanja, R.; Krikken, F.
2016-01-01
Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-Albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-The-Art global
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Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Donders, Timme H. [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); TNO Geological Survey of the Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Boer, Hugo Jan de; Dekker, Stefan C. [Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80115, Utrecht (Netherlands); Finsinger, Walter; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Grimm, Eric C. [Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, Springfield, IL (United States); Reichart, Gert Jan [Utrecht University, Geochemistry, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80021, Utrecht (Netherlands)
2011-01-15
Recurrent phases of increased pine at Lake Tulane, Florida have previously been related to strong stadials terminated by so-called Heinrich events. The climatic significance of these pine phases has been interpreted in different ways. Using a pollen-climate inference model, we quantified the climate changes and consistently found that mean summer precipitation (P{sub JJA}) increased (0.5-0.9 mm/day) and mean November temperature increased (2.0-3.0 C) during pine phases coeval with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. Marine sea surface temperature records indicate that potential sources for these moisture and heat anomalies are in the Gulf of Mexico and the western tropical Atlantic. We explain this low latitude warming by an increased Loop Current facilitated by persistence of the Atlantic Warm Pool during summer. This hypothesis is supported by a climate model sensitivity analysis. A positive heat anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic best approximates the pollen-inferred climate reconstructions from Lake Tulane during the (stadials around) Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. (orig.)
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Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Skinner, W.
2002-01-01
Roč. 107, B10 (2002), s. ETG6 1-12 ISSN 0148-0227 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : Canada climate warming * borehole temperature * geothermics Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.245, year: 2002
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Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter
Manney, Gloria L.; Allen, Douglas R.; Kruger, Kirstin; Naujokat, Barbara; Santee, Michelle L.; Sabutis, Joseph L.; Pawson, Steven; Swinbank, Richard; Randall, Cora E.; Simmons, Adrian J.;
2005-01-01
Several meteorological datasets, including U.K. Met Office (MetO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and NASA's Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-4) analyses, are being used in studies of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winter and Antarctic major warming. Diagnostics are compared to assess how these studies may be affected by the meteorological data used. While the overall structure and evolution of temperatures, winds, and wave diagnostics in the different analyses provide a consistent picture of the large-scale dynamics of the SH 2002 winter, several significant differences may affect detailed studies. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (REAN) and NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 (REAN-2) datasets are not recommended for detailed studies, especially those related to polar processing, because of lower-stratospheric temperature biases that result in underestimates of polar processing potential, and because their winds and wave diagnostics show increasing differences from other analyses between similar to 30 and 10 hPa (their top level). Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperatures in the ECMWF 40-Yr Re-analysis (ERA-40) show unrealistic vertical structure, so this long-term reanalysis is also unsuited for quantitative studies. The NCEP/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) objective analyses give an inferior representation of the upper-stratospheric vortex. Polar vortex transport barriers are similar in all analyses, but there is large variation in the amount, patterns, and timing of mixing, even among the operational assimilated datasets (ECMWF, MetO, and GEOS-4). The higher-resolution GEOS-4 and ECMWF assimilations provide significantly better representation of filamentation and small-scale structure than the other analyses, even when fields gridded at reduced resolution are studied. The choice of which analysis to use is most critical for detailed transport
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Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lavers, David A; Allan, Richard P; Brayshaw, David J; Villarini, Gabriele; Lloyd-Hughes, Benjamin; Wade, Andrew J
2013-01-01
Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing. (letter)
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International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Watterson, Ian G.
2007-01-01
Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections
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Cai, Qiufang; Liu, Yu; Duan, Bingchuang; Sun, Changfeng
2018-03-01
Tree-ring studies from tropical to subtropical regions are rarer than that from extratropical regions, which greatly limit our understanding of some critical climate change issues. Based on the tree-ring-width chronology of samples collected from the Dabie Mountains, we reconstructed the April-June mean temperature for this region with an explained variance of 46.8%. Five cold (1861-1869, 1889-1899, 1913-1920, 1936-1942 and 1952-1990) and three warm (1870-1888, 1922-1934 and 2000-2005) periods were identified in the reconstruction. The reconstruction not only agreed well with the instrumental records in and around the study area, but also showed good resemblance to previous temperature reconstructions from nearby regions, indicating its spatial and temporal representativeness of the temperature variation in the central part of eastern China. Although no secular warming trend was found, the warming trend since 1970 was unambiguous in the Dabie Mountains (0.064 °C/year). Further temperature comparison indicated that the start time of the recent warming in eastern China was regional different. It delayed gradually from north to south, starting at least around 1940 AD in the north part, around 1970 AD in the central part and around 1980s in the south part. This work enriches the high-resolution temperature reconstructions in eastern China. We expect that climate warming in the future would promote the radial growth of alpine Pinus taiwanensis in the subtropical areas of China, therefore promote the carbon capture and carbon storage in the Pinus taiwanensis forest. It also helps to clarify the regional characteristic of recent warming in eastern China.
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Jo, Youn Yi; Kim, Hong Soon; Chang, Young Jin; Yun, Soon Young; Kwak, Hyun Jeong
2013-07-01
Perioperative hypothermia can develop easily during shoulder arthroscopy, because cold irrigation can directly influence core body temperature. The authors investigated whether active warming and humidification of inspired gases reduces falls in core body temperature and allows redistribution of body heat in patients undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery under general anesthesia. Patients scheduled for arthroscopic shoulder surgery were randomly assigned to receive either room temperature inspired gases using a conventional respiratory circuit (the control group, n = 20) or inspired gases humidified and heated using a humidified and electrically heated circuit (HHC) (the heated group, n = 20). Core temperatures were significantly lower in both groups from 30 min after anesthesia induction, but were significantly higher in the heated group than in the control group from 75 to 120 min after anesthesia induction. In this study the use of a humidified and electrically heated circuit did not prevent core temperature falling during arthroscopic shoulder surgery, but it was found to decrease reductions in core temperature from 75 min after anesthesia induction.
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Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hongxiang Zhang
Full Text Available Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night, simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature, maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.
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Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von
2013-01-01
Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming
