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Sample records for warm tropical lakes

  1. Early warming of tropical South America at the last glacial-interglacial transition.

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    Seltzer, G O; Rodbell, D T; Baker, P A; Fritz, S C; Tapia, P M; Rowe, H D; Dunbar, R B

    2002-05-31

    Glaciation in the humid tropical Andes is a sensitive indicator of mean annual temperature. Here, we present sedimentological data from lakes beyond the glacial limit in the tropical Andes indicating that deglaciation from the Last Glacial Maximum led substantial warming at high northern latitudes. Deglaciation from glacial maximum positions at Lake Titicaca, Peru/Bolivia (16 degrees S), and Lake Junin, Peru (11 degrees S), occurred 22,000 to 19,500 calendar years before the present, several thousand years before the Bølling-Allerød warming of the Northern Hemisphere and deglaciation of the Sierra Nevada, United States (36.5 degrees to 38 degrees N). The tropical Andes deglaciated while climatic conditions remained regionally wet, which reflects the dominant control of mean annual temperature on tropical glaciation.

  2. Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

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    Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Long term picoplankton dynamics in a warm-monomictic, tropical high altitude lake

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    Alfonso LUGO VÁZQUEZ

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Long term analyses of the microbial loop, centred on the picoplankton dynamics, were carried out over a five-year (1998 to 2002 period in Lake Alchichica (Puebla, Mexico, a high altitude tropical athalassohaline lake. The hydrodynamics of the lake followed a warm-monomictic pattern with mixing at a minimum temperature during the early dry season while the stratification was pronounced in the late dry season and throughout the rainy season; anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion lasted <9 months. The annual mean concentrations of chlorophyll-a were below 4 μg L-1 in 1998, 1999 and 2001, however, 6.1 and 5.2 μg L-1 in 2000 and 2002, respectively. Total picoplankton, TPP, displayed a temporal pattern that followed the mixing-stratification cycle. The highest TPP values (the whole water column ≥5×106 cells mL-1 were found during mixing and early stratification (January-March. The minimum numbers were present during late stratification (October-November. The maximum TPP numbers were observed within the layer 0-20 m, which corresponded to the epilimnion during the stratification period. Neither the thermocline nor the deep chlorophyll maximum showed an elevated TPP concentration. In the hypolimnion, TPP numbers were low (frequently <1×106 cells mL-1 apparently as a result of the long period of anoxia. Notwithstanding autotrophic picoplankton (APP contributed even ≥30% of TPP (2001 to 2002; no significant correlation was found between TPP and chlorophyll-a.

  4. Climate warming reduces fish production and benthic habitat in Lake Tanganyika, one of the most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems

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    Cohen, Andrew S.; Gergurich, Elizabeth L.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; McGlue, Michael M.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Russell, James M.; Simmons, Jack D.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

    2016-01-01

    Warming climates are rapidly transforming lake ecosystems worldwide, but the breadth of changes in tropical lakes is poorly documented. Sustainable management of freshwater fisheries and biodiversity requires accounting for historical and ongoing stressors such as climate change and harvest intensity. This is problematic in tropical Africa, where records of ecosystem change are limited and local populations rely heavily on lakes for nutrition. Here, using a ∼1,500-y paleoecological record, we show that declines in fishery species and endemic molluscs began well before commercial fishing in Lake Tanganyika, Africa’s deepest and oldest lake. Paleoclimate and instrumental records demonstrate sustained warming in this lake during the last ∼150 y, which affects biota by strengthening and shallowing stratification of the water column. Reductions in lake mixing have depressed algal production and shrunk the oxygenated benthic habitat by 38% in our study areas, yielding fish and mollusc declines. Late-20th century fish fossil abundances at two of three sites were lower than at any other time in the last millennium and fell in concert with reduced diatom abundance and warming water. A negative correlation between lake temperature and fish and mollusc fossils over the last ∼500 y indicates that climate warming and intensifying stratification have almost certainly reduced potential fishery production, helping to explain ongoing declines in fish catches. Long-term declines of both benthic and pelagic species underscore the urgency of strategic efforts to sustain Lake Tanganyika’s extraordinary biodiversity and ecosystem services.

  5. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

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    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  6. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

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    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  7. Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

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    Neal Michelutti

    Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

  8. Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

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    Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Simpson, Kyle G; Efitre, Jackson; Nowlan, Tobias E; Taranu, Zofia E; Chapman, Lauren J

    2014-01-01

    African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2) adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, pdeterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

  9. Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

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    Émilie Saulnier-Talbot

    Full Text Available African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2 adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001 in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

  10. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

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    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  11. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

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    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  12. Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

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    Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

    2009-01-01

    Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

  13. Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

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    Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

    2018-05-01

    Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

  14. Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

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    Calaveri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Wood, Tana E.

    2015-01-01

    Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most

  15. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

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    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2018-03-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  16. Infrared heater system for warming tropical forest understory plants and soils

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    Bruce A. Kimball; Aura M. Alonso-Rodríguez; Molly A. Cavaleri; Sasha C. Reed; Grizelle González; Tana E. Wood

    2018-01-01

    The response of tropical forests to global warming is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting the future carbon balance of Earth. To determine the likely effects of elevated temperatures on tropical forest understory plants and soils, as well as other ecosystems, an infrared (IR) heater system was developed to provide in situ warming for the Tropical Responses...

  17. Tropical forest soil microbes and climate warming: An Andean-Amazon gradient and `SWELTR'

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    Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.; Fierer, N.; Whitaker, J.; Ostle, N. J.; McNamara, N. P.; Bardgett, R.; Silman, M.; Bååth, E.; Salinas, N.; Meir, P.

    2017-12-01

    Climate warming predicted for the tropics in the coming century will result in average temperatures under which no closed canopy forest exists today. There is, therefore, great uncertainty associated with the direction and magnitude of feedbacks between tropical forests and our future climate - especially relating to the response of soil microbes and the third of global soil carbon contained in tropical forests. While warming experiments are yet to be performed in tropical forests, natural temperature gradients are powerful tools to investigate temperature effects on soil microbes. Here we draw on studies from a 3.5 km elevation gradient - and 20oC mean annual temperature gradient - in Peruvian tropical forest, to investigate how temperature affects the structure of microbial communities, microbial metabolism, enzymatic activity and soil organic matter cycling. With decreased elevation, soil microbial diversity increased and community composition shifted, from taxa associated with oligotrophic towards copiotrophic traits. A key role for temperature in shaping these patterns was demonstrated by a soil translocation experiment, where temperature-manipulation altered the relative abundance of specific taxa. Functional implications of these community composition shifts were indicated by changes in enzyme activities, the temperature sensitivity of bacterial and fungal growth rates, and the presence of temperature-adapted iso-enzymes at different elevations. Studies from a Peruvian elevation transect indicated that soil microbial communities are adapted to long-term (differences with elevation) and short-term (translocation responses) temperature changes. These findings indicate the potential for adaptation of soil microbes in tropical soils to future climate warming. However, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to climate warming in lowland forests, in situ experimentation is required. Finally, we describe SWELTR (Soil Warming Experiment in Lowland

  18. Paleoenvironments, Evolution, and Geomicrobiology in a Tropical Pacific Lake: The Lake Towuti Drilling Project (TOWUTI)

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    Vogel, Hendrik; Russell, James M.; Bijaksana, Satria; Crowe, Sean; Fowle, David; Haffner, Douglas; King, John; Marwoto, Ristiyanti; Melles, Martin; von Rintelen, Thomas; Stevenson, Janelle; Watkinson, Ian; Wattrus, Nigel

    2014-05-01

    Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121°E) is a, 560 km2, 200-m deep tectonic lake at the downstream end of the Malili lake system, a set of five, ancient (1-2 MYr) tectonic lakes in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Lake Towuti's location in central Indonesia provides a unique opportunity to reconstruct long-term paleoclimate change in a crucially important yet understudied region- the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP), heart of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Malili Lakes have extraordinarily high rates of floral and faunal endemism, and the lakes are surrounded by one of the most diverse tropical forests on Earth. Drilling in Lake Towuti will identify the age and origin of the lake and the environmental and climatic context that shaped the evolution of this unique lacustrine and terrestrial ecosystem. The ultramafic (ophiolitic) rocks and lateritic soils surrounding Lake Towuti provide metal substrates that feed a diverse, exotic microbial community, analogous to the microbial ecosystems that operated in the Archean Oceans. Drill core will provide unique insight into long-term changes in this ecosystem, as well as microbial processes operating at depth in the sediment column. High-resolution seismic reflection data (CHIRP and airgun) combined with numerous long sediment piston cores collected from 2007-2013 demonstrate the enormous promise of Lake Towuti for an ICDP drilling campaign. Well-stratified sequences of up to 150 m thickness, uninterrupted by unconformities or erosional truncation, are present in multiple sub-basins within Towuti, providing ideal sites for long-term environmental, climatic, and limnological reconstructions. Multiproxy analyses of our piston cores document a continuous and detailed record of moisture balance variations in Lake Towuti during the past 60 kyr BP. In detail our datasets show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems in central Indonesia persisted during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene, and were interrupted by severe

  19. Diurnal sampling reveals significant variation in CO2 emission from a tropical productive lake.

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    Reis, P C J; Barbosa, F A R

    2014-08-01

    It is well accepted in the literature that lakes are generally net heterotrophic and supersaturated with CO2 because they receive allochthonous carbon inputs. However, autotrophy and CO2 undersaturation may happen for at least part of the time, especially in productive lakes. Since diurnal scale is particularly important to tropical lakes dynamics, we evaluated diurnal changes in pCO2 and CO2 flux across the air-water interface in a tropical productive lake in southeastern Brazil (Lake Carioca) over two consecutive days. Both pCO2 and CO2 flux were significantly different between day (9:00 to 17:00) and night (21:00 to 5:00) confirming the importance of this scale for CO2 dynamics in tropical lakes. Net heterotrophy and CO2 outgassing from the lake were registered only at night, while significant CO2 emission did not happen during the day. Dissolved oxygen concentration and temperature trends over the diurnal cycle indicated the dependence of CO2 dynamics on lake metabolism (respiration and photosynthesis). This study indicates the importance of considering the diurnal scale when examining CO2 emissions from tropical lakes.

  20. Restoration of Shallow Lakes in Subtropical and Tropical China: Response of Nutrients and Water Clarity to Biomanipulation by Fish Removal and Submerged Plant Transplantation

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    Jinlei Yu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Fish removal has been used to restore temperate lakes, and positive effects on ecological state and water clarity have frequently been recorded in many lakes. Recently, a supplementary measure, transplantation of submerged macrophytes after fish removal, has been applied to restore warm Chinese shallow lakes in order to compensate for the expected lack of increasing grazing control of phytoplankton after the biomanipulation. These measures have successfully shifted turbid warm lakes to a clear water state, but little is known about the responses to restoration of key physico-chemical variables. We analyzed the seasonal variation in nutrient concentrations in two subtropical and one tropical biomanipulated shallow Chinese lakes subjected to restoration. In all three lakes, a marked decline occurred in the concentrations of lake total nitrogen (TN, total phosphorus (TP, total suspended solids (TSS, and chlorophyll a (Chl a, while the transparency (SD:WD ratio, Secchi depth to water depth ratio increased. A clear water state was established, lasting so far for 7 to 23 months, and TN, TP, Chl a, and TSS levels in the three restored lakes decreased to, on average, 49%, 58%, 41%, and 18% of the level prior to restoration and/or the level in a reference lake, respectively, while the annual mean SD:WD ratio exhibited a 1.5–4 fold increase. In conclusion, lake restoration by transplantation of submerged macrophytes after fish removal had major positive effects on the physico-chemical variables in our study lakes. However, continuous control of omnivorous and herbivorous fish biomass is recommended as the fish typically present in warm, shallow lakes to some extent feed on submerged macrophytes, when available.

  1. Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

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    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

  2. Perspectives for an integrated understanding of tropical and temperate high-mountain lakes

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    Jordi Catalan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available High mountain lakes are extreme freshwater ecosystems and excellent sentinels of current global change. They are likely among the most comparable ecosystems across the world. The largest contrast occurs between lakes in temperate and tropical areas. The main difference arises from the seasonal patterns of heat exchange and the external loadings (carbon, phosphorus, metals. The consequence is a water column structure based on temperature, in temperate lakes, and oxygen, in tropical lakes. This essential difference implies that, in tropical lakes, one can expect a more sustained productivity throughout the year; a higher nutrient internal loading based on the mineralization of external organic matter; higher nitrification-denitrification potential related to the oxyclines; and a higher metal mobilization due to the permanently reduced bottom layer. Quantifying and linking these and other biogeochemical pathways to particular groups of organisms is in the current agenda of high-mountain limnology. The intrinsic difficulties of the taxonomic study of many of the organisms inhabiting these systems can be now overcome with the use of molecular techniques. These techniques will not only provide a much less ambiguous taxonomic knowledge of the microscopic world, but also will unveil new biogeochemical pathways that are difficult to measure chemically and will solve biogeographical puzzles of the distribution of some macroscopic organism, tracing the relationship with other areas. Daily variability and vertical gradients in the tropics are the main factors of phytoplankton species turnover in tropical lakes; whereas seasonality is the main driver in temperate communities. The study of phytoplankton in high-mountain lakes only makes sense in an integrated view of the microscopic ecosystem. A large part of the plankton biomass is in heterotrophic, and mixotrophic organisms and prokaryotes compete for dissolved resources with eukaryotic autotrophs. In fact

  3. Frequency of Tropical Ocean Deep Convection and Global Warming

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    Aumann, H. H.; Behrangi, A.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2017-12-01

    The average of 36 CMIP5 models predicts about 3K of warming and a 4.7% increase in precipitation for the tropical oceans with a doubling of the CO2 by the end of this century. For this scenario we evaluate the increase in the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) in the tropical oceans. We select only DCC which reach or penetrate the tropopause in the 15 km AIRS footprint. The evaluation is based on Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the current temperatures of the tropical oceans, those predicted by the mean of the CMIP5 models and the PDF of the DCC process. The PDF of the DCC process is derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) between the years 2003 and 2016. During this time the variability due Enso years provided a 1 K p-p change in the mean tropical SST. The key parameter is the SST associated with the onset of the DCC process. This parameter shifts only 0.5 K for each K of warming of the oceans. As a result the frequency of DCC is expected to increases by the end of this century by about 50% above the current frequency.

  4. A warming tropical central Pacific dries the lower stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qinghua; Fu, Qiang

    2018-04-01

    The amount of water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS), which has an important influence on the radiative energy budget of the climate system, is modulated by the temperature variability of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The TTL temperature variability is caused by a complex combination of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), tropospheric convective processes in the tropics, and the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) driven by mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric waves. In 2000, the TLS water vapor amount exhibited a stepwise transition to a dry phase, apparently caused by a change in the BDC. In this study, we present observational and modeling evidence that the epochal change of water vapor between the periods of 1992-2000 and 2001-2005 was also partly caused by a concurrent sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical central Pacific. This SST warming cools the TTL above by enhancing the equatorial wave-induced upward motion near the tropopause, which consequently reduces the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. The QBO affects the TLS water vapor primarily on inter-annual timescales, whereas a classical El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) event has small effect on tropical mean TLS water vapor because its responses are longitudinally out of phase. This study suggests that the tropical central Pacific SST is another driver of TLS water vapor variability on inter-decadal timescales and the tropical SST changes could contribute to about 30% of the step-wise drop of the lower stratospheric water vapor from 1992-2000 to 2001-2005.

  5. New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

  6. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  7. Driving forces of the diel distribution of phytoplankton functional groups in a shallow tropical lake (Lake Monte Alegre, Southeast Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LM. Rangel

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton vertical and diel dynamics in a small shallow lake (Lake Monte Alegre, Ribeirão Preto, state of São Paulo were investigated in two climatological periods: July 2001 (cool-dry season and March 2002 (warm-rainy season. Monte Alegre is a eutrophic reservoir, with a warm polymictic discontinuous circulation pattern. The lake was thermally stratified in both periods, although dissolved oxygen varied less in the cool-dry period. Phytoplankton biomass was higher in the warm-rainy season and the vertical distribution was stratified in both seasons. Flagellate groups (Lm, Y, W1 and W2 and functional groups typical of shallow eutrophic environments (J, X1 and Sn were important throughout the study period. The lake's thermal pattern strongly influenced the vertical distribution of the phytoplankton community in both periods. Biomass, functional groups and size classes of phytoplankton also were determined by the presence of more efficient herbivores in the lake, especially during the cool-dry period when phytoplankton biomass decreased.

  8. Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hilbert, David W

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

  9. New evidence on the sequence of deglacial warming in the tropical Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.; Govil, P.

    . Quat. Sci., vol.25(7); 2010; 1138-1143 A New Evidence on Sequence of Deglacial Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean P. Divakar Naidu 1 , Pawan Govil 1,2 1 National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula 403 004, Goa, India 2 National Centre... relative timing of abrupt climate warming in the tropics versus the high latitudes should be known. Therefore, the present communication is aimed to address the start of deglaciation in the Indian Ocean based on sea surface temperature (SST) derived from...

  10. Distinctive effects of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter on CDOM spectra in a tropical lake

    OpenAIRE

    Brandão, Luciana Pena Mello; Brighenti, Ludmila Silva; Staehr, Peter Anton; Asmala, Eero; Massicotte, Philippe; Tonetta, Denise; Barbosa, Francisco Antônio Rodrigues; Pujoni, Diego; Bezerra-Neto, José Fernandes

    2018-01-01

    Despite the increasing understanding about differences in carbon cycling between temperate and tropical freshwater systems, our knowledge on the importance of organic matter (OM) pools on light absorption properties in tropical lakes is very scarce. We performed a factorial mesocosm experiment in a tropical lake (Minas Gerais, Brazil) to evaluate the effects of increased concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous OM on the light absorption characteristics of colored dissolved organic m...

  11. Warming affects growth rates and microcystin production in tropical bloom-forming microcystis strains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bui, Trung; Dao, Thanh Son; Vo, Truong Giang; Lürling, Miquel

    2018-01-01

    Warming climate is predicted to promote cyanobacterial blooms but the toxicity of cyanobacteria under global warming is less well studied. We tested the hypothesis that raising temperature may lead to increased growth rates but to decreased microcystin (MC) production in tropical Microcystis

  12. What do we know about Indonesian tropical lakes? Insights from high frequency measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budi Santoso, Arianto; Triwisesa, Endra; Fakhrudin, Muh.; Harsono, Eko; Agita Rustini, Hadiid

    2018-02-01

    When measuring ecological variables in lakes, sampling frequency is critical in capturing an environmental pattern. Discrete sampling of traditional monitoring programs is likely to result in vital knowledge gaps in understanding any processes particularly those with fine temporal scale characteristics. The development of high frequency measurements offer a sophisticated range of information in recording any events in lakes at a finer time scale. We present physical indices of a tropical deep Lake Maninjau arrayed from OnLine Monitoring System (OLM). It is revealed that Lake Maninjau mostly has a diurnal thermal stratification pattern. The calculated lake stability (Schmidt stability), however, follows a seasonal pattern; low in December-January and around August, and high in May and September. Using a 3D numerical model simulation (ELCOM), we infer how wind and solar radiation intensity control lake’s temperature profiles. In this review, we highlight the needs of high frequency measurement establishment in Indonesian tropical lakes to better understand the unique processes and to support the authorities’ decision making in maximizing the provision of ecosystem services supplied by lakes and reservoirs.

  13. Wet-to-dry shift over Southwest China in 1994 tied to the warming of tropical warm pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Huang, Gang; Chen, Wen; Zhou, Wen; Wang, Weiqiang

    2018-01-01

    The autumn climate in Southwest China (SWC) experienced a notable wet-to-dry shift in 1994. Associated with this change in precipitation, decadal signatures of large-scale atmospheric circulation and SST identify a likely dynamical origin: the tropical warm pool (TWP) consisting of tropical northwest Pacific (TNWP, 3°S-12°N and 110°E-150°E) sector and tropical east Indian Ocean (TEI, 10°S-3°N and 80°E-110°E) sector. A cold-to-warm phase switch of TWP SST occurred in 1994, coinciding exactly with the timing of the regime transition of SWC precipitation. During post-1994 period, warm states in the TNWP and TEI sectors plays in a synergistic fashion to invoke dry decades in SWC. On the one side, warm SST over the TNWP sector excites an anomalous cyclone centered on the South China Sea directed opposite to the climatological moisture transport and strengthened zonal wind to its west accompanied by a weakening of the poleward flux; on the other side, warm SST over the TEI sector acts to intensify inflow into TEI with less concurrent transfer of moisture to SWC and to steer moisture to the northern Arabic Sea and away from the SWC-oriented track. Meanwhile, the troposphere over SWC is capped by subsidence, which is jointly contributed by TNWP and TEI. It then follows a reduced moisture supply, suppressed convective activity, and anomalous divergence in SWC, bringing a precipitation deficit there. In contrast, cold TWP SST during 1961-1994 favors wet conditions in SWC, given a perfectly symmetrical circulation pattern. Further, the dominant role of TWP is confirmed, because the modeled response to TWP SST forcing alone bears a great resemblance to the observed evidence. Finally, it is also found that the teleconnected influence induced by TWP is stronger in southern SWC than in northern SWC, which explains the south-north gradient of interdecadal signal of SWC precipitation.

  14. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  15. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  16. Disentangling the effects of a century of eutrophication and climate warming on freshwater lake fish assemblages.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter C Jacobson

    Full Text Available Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896-1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981-2010. Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future.

  17. Effects of phosphorus and nitrogen additions on tropical soil microbial activity in the context of experimental warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, M.; Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.

    2017-12-01

    Soil warming is generally predicted to increase microbial mineralization rates and accelerate soil C losses which could establish a positive feedback to climatic warming. Tropical rain forests account for a third of global soil C, yet the responseto of tropical soil C a warming climate remains poorly understood. Despite predictions of soil C losses, decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) in tropical soils may be constrained by several factors including microbial nutrient deficiencies. We performed an incubation experiment in conjunction with an in-situ soil warming experiment in a lowland tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to measure microbial response to two key nutrient additions in shallow (0-10cm) and deep (50-100 cm) soils. We compared the response of lowland tropical soils to montane tropical soils, predicting that lowland soils would display the strongest response to phosphorus additions. Soils were treated with either carbon alone (C), nitrogen (CN), phosphorus (CP) or nitrogen and phosphorus combined (CNP). Carbon dioxide (CO2) production was measured by NaOH capture and titrimetric analysis for 10 days. Cumulative CO2 production in montane soils increased significantly with all additions, suggesting these soils are characterized by a general microbial nutrient deficiency. The cumulative amount of C respired in deep soils from the lowland site increased significantly with CP and CNP additions, suggesting that microbial processes in deep lowland tropical soils are phosphorus-limited. These results support the current understanding that lowland tropical forests are growing on highly weathered, phosphorus-deplete soils, and provide novel insight that deep tropical SOM may be stabilized by a lack of biologically-available phosphorus. Further, this data suggests tropical soil C losses under elevated temperature may be limited by a strong microbial phosphorus deficiency.

  18. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  19. Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, K M; Zimov, S A; Chanton, J P; Verbyla, D; Chapin, F S

    2006-09-07

    Large uncertainties in the budget of atmospheric methane, an important greenhouse gas, limit the accuracy of climate change projections. Thaw lakes in North Siberia are known to emit methane, but the magnitude of these emissions remains uncertain because most methane is released through ebullition (bubbling), which is spatially and temporally variable. Here we report a new method of measuring ebullition and use it to quantify methane emissions from two thaw lakes in North Siberia. We show that ebullition accounts for 95 per cent of methane emissions from these lakes, and that methane flux from thaw lakes in our study region may be five times higher than previously estimated. Extrapolation of these fluxes indicates that thaw lakes in North Siberia emit 3.8 teragrams of methane per year, which increases present estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands (< 6-40 teragrams per year; refs 1, 2, 4-6) by between 10 and 63 per cent. We find that thawing permafrost along lake margins accounts for most of the methane released from the lakes, and estimate that an expansion of thaw lakes between 1974 and 2000, which was concurrent with regional warming, increased methane emissions in our study region by 58 per cent. Furthermore, the Pleistocene age (35,260-42,900 years) of methane emitted from hotspots along thawing lake margins indicates that this positive feedback to climate warming has led to the release of old carbon stocks previously stored in permafrost.

  20. Clastic sediment flux to tropical Andean lakes: records of glaciation and soil erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodbell, Donald T.; Seltzer, Geoffrey O.; Mark, Bryan G.; Smith, Jacqueline A.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2008-08-01

    We developed records of clastic sediment flux to 13 alpine lakes in Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia, and compared these with independently dated records of regional glaciation. Our objectives are to determine whether a strong relationship exists between the extent of ice cover in the region and the rate of clastic sediment delivery to alpine lakes, and thus whether clastic sediment records serve as reliable proxies for glaciation during the late Pleistocene. We isolated the clastic component in lake sediment cores by removing the majority of the biogenic and authigenic components from the bulk sediment record, and we dated cores by a combination of radiocarbon and tephrochronology. In order to partially account for intra-basin differences in sediment focusing, bedrock erosivity, and sediment availability, we normalized each record to the weighted mean value of clastic sediment flux for each respective core. This enabled the stacking of all 13 lake records to produce a composite record that is generally representative of the tropical Andes. There is a striking similarity between the composite record of clastic sediment flux and the distribution of ˜100 cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) exposure ages for erratics on moraine crests in the central Peruvian and northern Bolivian Andes. The extent of ice cover thus appears to be the primary variable controlling the delivery of clastic sediment to alpine lakes in the region, which bolsters the increasing use of clastic sediment flux as a proxy for the extent of ice cover in the region. The CRN moraine record and the stacked lake core composite record together indicate that the expansion of ice cover and concomitant increase in clastic sediment flux began at least 40 ka, and the local last glacial maximum (LLGM) culminated between 30 and 20 ka. A decline in clastic sediment flux that began ˜20 ka appears to mark the onset of deglaciation from the LLGM, at least one millennium prior to significant warming in high latitude regions

  1. Impacts of the Tropical Pacific Cold Tongue Mode on ENSO Diversity Under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Li, Jianping; Zhang, Wenjun; Chen, Quanliang; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Wang, Wei; Zhou, Xin

    2017-11-01

    The causes of ENSO diversity, although being of great interest in recent research, do not have a consistent explanation. This study provides a possible mechanism focused on the background change of the tropical Pacific as a response to global warming. The second empirical orthogonal function mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical Pacific, namely the cold tongue mode (CTM), represents the background change of the tropical Pacific under global warming. Using composite analysis with surface observations and subsurface ocean assimilation data sets, we find ENSO spatial structure diversity is closely associated with the CTM. A positive CTM tends to cool the SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warm the SST outside, as well as widen (narrow) zonal and meridional scales for El Niño (La Niña), and vice versa. Particularly in the positive CTM phase, the air-sea action center of El Niño moves west, resembling the spatial pattern of CP-El Niño. This westward shift of center is related to the weakened Bjerknes feedback (BF) intensity by the CTM. By suppressing the SSTA growth of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the CTM contributes to more frequent occurrence of CP-El Niño under global warming.

  2. Primary production in a tropical large lake: The role of phytoplankton composition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darchambeau, F.; Sarmento, H.; Descy, J.-P.

    2014-01-01

    Phytoplankton biomass and primary production in tropical large lakes vary at different time scales, from seasons to centuries. We provide a dataset made of 7 consecutive years of phytoplankton biomass and production in Lake Kivu (Eastern Africa). From 2002 to 2008, bi-weekly samplings were performed in a pelagic site in order to quantify phytoplankton composition and biomass, using marker pigments determined by HPLC. Primary production rates were estimated by 96 in situ 14 C incubations. A principal component analysis showed that the main environmental gradient was linked to a seasonal variation of the phytoplankton assemblage, with a clear separation between diatoms during the dry season and cyanobacteria during the rainy season. A rather wide range of the maximum specific photosynthetic rate (P Bm ) was found, ranging between 1.15 and 7.21 g carbon g −1 chlorophyll a h −1 , and was best predicted by a regression model using phytoplankton composition as an explanatory variable. The irradiance at the onset of light saturation (I k ) ranged between 91 and 752 μE m −2 s −1 and was linearly correlated with the mean irradiance in the mixed layer. The inter-annual variability of phytoplankton biomass and production was high, ranging from 53 to 100 mg chlorophyll a m −2 (annual mean) and from 143 to 278 g carbon m −2 y −1 , respectively. The degree of seasonal mixing determined annual production, demonstrating the sensitivity of tropical lakes to climate variability. A review of primary production of other African great lakes allows situating Lake Kivu productivity in the same range as that of lakes Tanganyika and Malawi, even if mean phytoplankton biomass was higher in Lake Kivu. - Highlights: • We provide a 7-year dataset of primary production in a tropical great lake. • Specific photosynthetic rate was determined by community composition. • Annual primary production varied between 143 and 278 mg C m −2 y −1 . • Pelagic production was highly

  3. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Emily M; Townsend, Howard M; Anderson, David J

    2017-01-01

    Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

  4. Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily M Tompkins

    Full Text Available Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

  5. Mercury in sediment, water, and fish in a managed tropical wetland-lake ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malczyk, Evan A; Branfireun, Brian A

    2015-08-15

    Mercury pollution has not been well documented in the inland lakes or fishes of Mexico, despite the importance of freshwater fish as a source of protein in local diets. Total mercury and methylmercury in waters, sediments, and the commercial fish catch were investigated in Lake Zapotlán, Mexico. Concentrations of total and methylmercury were very high in runoff and wastewater inputs, but very low in sediments and surface waters of the open water area of the lake. Concentrations of total mercury in tilapia and carp were very low, consistent with the low concentrations in lake water and sediments. Particle settling, sorption, the biogeochemical environment, and/or bloom dilution are all plausible explanations for the significant reductions in both total mercury and methylmercury. Despite very high loading of mercury, this shallow tropical lake was not a mercury-impaired ecosystem, and these findings may translate across other shallow, alkaline tropical lakes. Importantly, the ecosystem services that seemed to be provided by peripheral wetlands in reducing mercury inputs highlight the potential for wetland conservation or restoration in Mexico. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Variability Provide a Lens to How Shallow Lakes May Respond to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Havens

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Shallow lakes, particularly those in low-lying areas of the subtropics, are highly vulnerable to changes in climate associated with global warming. Many of these lakes are in tropical cyclone strike zones and they experience high inter-seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall and runoff. Both of those factors strongly modulate sediment–water column interactions, which play a critical role in shallow lake nutrient cycling, water column irradiance characteristics and cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (CyanoHAB dynamics. We illustrate this with three examples, using long-term (15–25 years datasets on water quality and plankton from three shallow lakes: Lakes Okeechobee and George (Florida, USA and Lake Taihu (China. Okeechobee and Taihu have been impacted repeatedly by tropical cyclones that have resulted in large amounts of runoff and sediment resuspension, and resultant increases in dissolved nutrients in the water column. In both cases, when turbidity declined, major blooms of the toxic CyanoHAB Microcystis aeruginosa occurred over large areas of the lakes. In Lake George, periods of high rainfall resulted in high dissolved color, reduced irradiance, and increased water turnover rates which suppress blooms, whereas in dry periods with lower water color and water turnover rates there were dense cyanobacteria blooms. We identify a suite of factors which, from our experience, will determine how a particular shallow lake will respond to a future with global warming, flashier rainfall, prolonged droughts and stronger tropical cyclones.

  7. Relative lake level fluctuations and their influence on productivity and resilience in tropical lakes and reservoirs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolding, J.; Zwieten, van P.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    Lakes and reservoirs are traditionally characterised from static morphological or chemical parameters such as depth and dissolved solids, while the dynamic impact of shifting water supplies has received little attention. There is increasing evidence, however, that the hydrodynamic regime in tropical

  8. A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Sui, C. H.; Tao, W. K.

    1993-01-01

    The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

  9. Effects of simulated warming on soil respiration to XiaoPo lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shuangkai; Chen, Kelong; Wu, Chengyong; Mao, Yahui

    2018-02-01

    The main flux of carbon cycling in terrestrial and atmospheric ecosystems is soil respiration, and soil respiration is one of the main ways of soil carbon output. This is of great significance to explore the dynamic changes of soil respiration rate and its effect on temperature rise, and the correlation between environmental factors and soil respiration. In this study, we used the open soil carbon flux measurement system (LI-8100, LI-COR, NE) in the experimental area of the XiaoPo Lake wetland in the Qinghai Lake Basin, and the Kobresia (Rs) were measured, and the soil respiration was simulated by simulated temperature (OTC) and natural state. The results showed that the temperature of 5 cm soil was 1.37 °C higher than that of the control during the experiment, and the effect of warming was obvious. The respiration rate of soil under warming and natural conditions showed obvious diurnal variation and monthly variation. The effect of warming on soil respiration rate was promoted and the effect of precipitation on soil respiration rate was inhibited. Further studies have shown that the relationship between soil respiration and 5 cm soil temperature under the control and warming treatments can be described by the exponential equation, and the correlation analysis between the two plots shows a very significant exponential relationship (p main influencing factor of soil respiration in this region.

  10. Carbon dioxide dynamics in a lake and a reservoir on a tropical island (Bali, Indonesia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macklin, Paul A; Suryaputra, I Gusti Ngurah Agung; Maher, Damien T; Santos, Isaac R

    2018-01-01

    Water-to-air carbon dioxide fluxes from tropical lakes and reservoirs (artificial lakes) may be an important but understudied component of global carbon fluxes. Here, we investigate the seasonal dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) dynamics in a lake and a reservoir on a tropical volcanic island (Bali, Indonesia). Observations were performed over four seasonal surveys in Bali's largest natural lake (Lake Batur) and largest reservoir (Palasari Reservoir). Average CO2 partial pressures in the natural lake and reservoir were 263.7±12.2 μatm and 785.0±283.6 μatm respectively, with the highest area-weighted partial pressures in the wet season for both systems. The strong correlations between seasonal mean values of dissolved oxygen (DO) and pCO2 in the natural lake (r2 = 0.92) suggest that surface water metabolism was an important driver of CO2 dynamics in this deep system. Radon (222Rn, a natural groundwater discharge tracer) explained up to 77% of the variability in pCO2 in the shallow reservoir, suggesting that groundwater seepage was the major CO2 driver in the reservoir. Overall, the natural lake was a sink of atmospheric CO2 (average fluxes of -2.8 mmol m-2 d-1) while the reservoir was a source of CO2 to the atmosphere (average fluxes of 7.3 mmol m-2 d-1). Reservoirs are replacing river valleys and terrestrial ecosystems, particularly throughout developing tropical regions. While the net effect of this conversion on atmospheric CO2 fluxes remains to be resolved, we speculate that reservoir construction will partially offset the CO2 sink provided by deep, volcanic, natural lakes and terrestrial environments.

  11. Controls on the meridional extent of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donohoe, A.

    2017-12-01

    A method for decomposing changes and variability in the spatial structure of tropical precipitation into shifting (meridional translation), contracting, and intensifying modes of variability is introduced. We demonstrate that the shifting mode of tropical precipitation explains very little (20%) more of the tropical precipitation changes and variability. Furthermore, the contraction of tropical precipitation is highly correlated (R2 > 0.95) with an intensification of the precipitation in both the observations and forced modeled simulations. These results suggest that the simultaneous contraction and intensification of tropical precipitation is the dominant mode of variability and changes under external forcing. We speculate that tropical surface temperature controls this concurrent variability. Indeed, models robustly predict that tropical precipitation increases and meridionally contracts in response to increased CO2 and is reduced and meridionally expanded under glacial forcing and boundary conditions. In contrast, the directionality of the tropical precipitation shift is both ambiguous and small in magnitude in response to increased CO2. Furthermore, the ratio of the contraction/expansion to intensification/reduction is consistent in the continuum of climate states from the glacial climate to a modern climate to a 4XCO2 climate suggesting that the intensification and contraction are linked together via a single mechanism. We examine two mechanisms responsible for the contraction of the precipitation under global warming : i. the reduction of the seasonal cycle of energy input to the atmosphere due to sea ice retreat that results in the tropical precipitation remaining closer to the equator during the solsticial seasons and; ii. the increased gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as the surface warms resulting in a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley circulation during the solsticial seasons.

  12. Primary production in a tropical large lake: The role of phytoplankton composition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darchambeau, F., E-mail: francois.darchambeau@ulg.ac.be [Chemical Oceanography Unit, University of Liège, Liège (Belgium); Sarmento, H., E-mail: hugo.sarmento@gmail.com [Department of Hydrobiology, Federal University of São Carlos, 13565-905 São Carlos, São Paulo (Brazil); Descy, J.-P., E-mail: jean-pierre.descy@unamur.be [Research Unit in Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, University of Namur, Namur (Belgium)

    2014-03-01

    Phytoplankton biomass and primary production in tropical large lakes vary at different time scales, from seasons to centuries. We provide a dataset made of 7 consecutive years of phytoplankton biomass and production in Lake Kivu (Eastern Africa). From 2002 to 2008, bi-weekly samplings were performed in a pelagic site in order to quantify phytoplankton composition and biomass, using marker pigments determined by HPLC. Primary production rates were estimated by 96 in situ {sup 14}C incubations. A principal component analysis showed that the main environmental gradient was linked to a seasonal variation of the phytoplankton assemblage, with a clear separation between diatoms during the dry season and cyanobacteria during the rainy season. A rather wide range of the maximum specific photosynthetic rate (P{sub Bm}) was found, ranging between 1.15 and 7.21 g carbon g{sup −1} chlorophyll a h{sup −1}, and was best predicted by a regression model using phytoplankton composition as an explanatory variable. The irradiance at the onset of light saturation (I{sub k}) ranged between 91 and 752 μE m{sup −2} s{sup −1} and was linearly correlated with the mean irradiance in the mixed layer. The inter-annual variability of phytoplankton biomass and production was high, ranging from 53 to 100 mg chlorophyll a m{sup −2} (annual mean) and from 143 to 278 g carbon m{sup −2} y{sup −1}, respectively. The degree of seasonal mixing determined annual production, demonstrating the sensitivity of tropical lakes to climate variability. A review of primary production of other African great lakes allows situating Lake Kivu productivity in the same range as that of lakes Tanganyika and Malawi, even if mean phytoplankton biomass was higher in Lake Kivu. - Highlights: • We provide a 7-year dataset of primary production in a tropical great lake. • Specific photosynthetic rate was determined by community composition. • Annual primary production varied between 143 and 278 mg C m

  13. Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lestari, R Kartika; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Imada, Yukiko; Shiogama, Hideo; Field, Robert D; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2014-01-01

    Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960–2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-mean precipitation. A future increase in the frequency of droughts is then suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model ensembles. Increasing precipitation to the north of the equator accompanies drier conditions over Indonesia, amplified by enhanced ocean surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific. The resultant precipitation decrease leads to a ∼25% increase in severe drought events from 1951–2000 to 2001–2050. Our results therefore indicate the global warming impact to a potential of wide-spreading forest fires over Indonesia, which requires mitigation policy for disaster prevention. (letter)

  14. Acute thermal tolerance of tropical estuarine fish occupying a man-made tidal lake, and increased exposure risk with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltham, Nathan J.; Sheaves, Marcus

    2017-09-01

    Understanding acute hyperthermic exposure risk to animals, including fish in tropical estuaries, is increasingly necessary under future climate change. To examine this hypothesis, fish (upper water column species - glassfish, Ambassis vachellii; river mullet, Chelon subviridis; diamond scale mullet, Ellochelon vaigiensis; and ponyfish, Leiognathus equulus; and lower water bottom dwelling species - whiting Sillago analis) were caught in an artificial tidal lake in tropical north Queensland (Australia), and transported to a laboratory tank to acclimate (3wks). After acclimation, fish (between 10 and 17 individuals each time) were transferred to a temperature ramping experimental tank, where a thermoline increased (2.5 °C/hr; which is the average summer water temperature increasing rate measured in the urban lakes) tank water temperature to establish threshold points where each fish species lost equilibrium (defined here as Acute Effect Temperature; AET). The coolest AET among all species was 33.1 °C (S. analis), while the highest was 39.9 °C (A. vachellii). High frequency loggers were deployed (November and March representing Austral summer) in the same urban lake where fish were sourced, to measure continuous (20min) surface (0.15 m) and bottom (0.1 m) temperature to derive thermal frequency curves to examine how often lake temperatures exceed AET thresholds. For most fish species examined, water temperature that could be lethal were exceeded at the surface, but rarely, if ever, at the bottom waters suggesting deep, cooler, water provides thermal refugia for fish. An energy-balance model was used to estimate daily mean lake water temperature with good accuracy (±1 °C; R2 = 0.91, modelled vs lake measured temperature). The model was used to predict climate change effects on lake water temperature, and the exceedance of thermal threshold change. A 2.3 °C climate warming (based on 2100 local climate prediction) raised lake water temperature by 1.3 °C. However

  15. Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Lopes, Ana Rita; Pimentel, Marta; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Trübenbach, Katja; Narciso, Luis; Dionísio, Gisela; Pegado, Maria Rita; Repolho, Tiago; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário

    2014-10-01

    Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health

  16. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2005-01-01

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance...

  17. Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Gittings, John; Raitsos, Dionysios E.; Krokos, George; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2018-01-01

    In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

  18. Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

    KAUST Repository

    Gittings, John

    2018-01-29

    In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998-2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms.

  19. Twentieth-century warming revives the world's northernmost lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perren, Bianca B.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Cooke, Colin A.

    2012-01-01

    lake to explore this question. Microfossils indicate that siliceous diatoms and chrysophytes were abundant initially, but disappeared 2400 yr ago in concert with Neoglacial cooling. Microfossils reappear in 20th-century sediments and reach unprecedented concentrations in sediments deposited after ca. A.......D. 1980, tracking increasing summer temperatures in the absence of evidence for atmospheric nutrient subsidies. These results indicate that current warming in northern Greenland is unprecedented in the context of the past 2400 yr, and that climate change alone is responsible for the marked biological...

  20. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khanh Dung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

  1. Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

    2018-04-16

    The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

  2. Emergent Macrophytes Support Zooplankton in a Shallow Tropical Lake: A Basis for Wetland Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Mesfin; Kifle, Demeke; Triest, Ludwig

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the biodiversity value of littoral zones of lakes is a priority for aquatic biodiversity conservation. However, less emphasis has been given to the littoral part of tropical African lakes, with many of the previous researches focusing only on the open water side. The aim of the present study was, therefore, to investigate the impact of the littoral zone of a shallow freshwater tropical lake (Ziway, Ethiopia), dominated by two emergent macrophytes, on zooplankton community structure. We hypothesized that the wetland vegetation serves as a preferred microhabitat for zooplankton communities. A lake with substantial coverage of emergent macrophytes was monitored monthly from January to August, 2016. The monitoring included the measurements of physical, chemical, and biological parameters. Sampling sites were selected to represent areas of the macrophyte vegetation ( Typha latifolia and Phragmites australis) and the open water part of the lake. Sites with macrophyte vegetation were found to be the home of more dense and diverse zooplankton community. However, during the period of high vegetation loss, the density of crustacean zooplankton showed significant reduction within the patches of macrophytes. From biodiversity conservation perspective, it was concluded that the preservation of such small areas of macrophytes covering the littoral zone of lakes could be as important as protecting the whole lake. However, the rapid degradation of wetland vegetation by human activities is a real threat to the lake ecosystem. In the not-too-far future, it could displace and evict riparian vegetation and the biota it supports.

  3. Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

  4. Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

  5. Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

  6. Inverse relationship between present-day tropical precipitation and its sensitivity to greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Choi, Jun-Young; Jin, Fei-Fei; Watanabe, Masahiro

    2018-01-01

    Future changes in rainfall have serious impacts on human adaptation to climate change, but quantification of these changes is subject to large uncertainties in climate model projections. To narrow these uncertainties, significant efforts have been made to understand the intermodel differences in future rainfall changes. Here, we show a strong inverse relationship between present-day precipitation and its future change to possibly calibrate future precipitation change by removing the present-day bias in climate models. The results of the models with less tropical (40° S-40° N) present-day precipitation are closely linked to the dryness over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, and project weaker regional precipitation increase due to the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing1-6 with stronger zonal Walker circulation. This induces Indo-western Pacific warming through Bjerknes feedback, which reduces relative humidity by the enhanced atmospheric boundary-layer mixing in the future projection. This increases the air-sea humidity difference to enhance tropical evaporation and the resultant precipitation. Our estimation of the sensitivity of the tropical precipitation per 1 K warming, after removing a common bias in the present-day simulation, is about 50% greater than the original future multi-model projection.

  7. Climate-mediated nitrogen and carbon dynamics in a tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Poulter, B.

    2011-06-01

    Climate variability affects the capacity of the biosphere to assimilate and store important elements, such as nitrogen and carbon. Here we present biogeochemical evidence from the sediments of tropical Lake Titicaca indicating that large hydrologic changes in response to global glacial cycles during the Quaternary were accompanied by major shifts in ecosystem state. During prolonged glacial intervals, lake level was high and the lake was in a stable nitrogen-limited state. In contrast, during warm dry interglacials lake level fell and rates of nitrogen concentrations increased by a factor of 4-12, resulting in a fivefold to 24-fold increase in organic carbon concentrations in the sediments due to increased primary productivity. Observed periods of increased primary productivity were also associated with an apparent increase in denitrification. However, the net accumulation of nitrogen during interglacial intervals indicates that increased nitrogen supply exceeded nitrogen losses due to denitrification, thereby causing increases in primary productivity. Although primary productivity in tropical ecosystems, especially freshwater ecosystems, tends to be nitrogen limited, our results indicate that climate variability may lead to changes in nitrogen availability and thus changes in primary productivity. Therefore some tropical ecosystems may shift between a stable state of nitrogen limitation and a stable state of nitrogen saturation in response to varying climatic conditions.

  8. Five thousand years of tropical lake sediment DNA records from Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bremond, L.; Favier, C.; Ficetola, G. F.; Tossou, M. G.; Akouégninou, A.; Gielly, L.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Oslisly, R.; Salzmann, U.

    2017-08-01

    Until now, sedimentary DNA (sedDNA) studies have only focused on cold and temperate regions were DNA is relatively well preserved. Consequently, the tropics, where vegetation is hyperdiverse and natural archives are rare, have been neglected and deserve attention. In this study, we used next-generation sequencing to barcode sedDNA from Lake Sele, localized in the tropical lowlands of Benin (Africa), and compared the taxonomic diversity detected by DNA analyses with pollen assemblages. Plant sedDNA was successfully amplified from 33 of the 34 successfully extracted samples. In total, 43 taxa were identified along the 5000 years spanned by the sediment: 22 taxa were identified at the family level and 21 at the genus level. The plant diversity recovered through sedDNA from Lake Sele showed a specific local signal and limited overlapping with pollen. Introduced plants, grown and cultivated close to the water, such as sweet potato, were also well recorded by sedDNA. It appears, therefore, to be a promising approach to studying past diversity in tropical regions, and could help in tracking the introduction and history of agriculture. This is the first time this method has been used in the field of domestication and dissemination of several specific crops, and the results are very encouraging.

  9. High-resolution paleolimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Elodie ePerga

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Varved lake sediments provide opportunities for high-resolution paleolimnological investigations that may extend monitoring surveys in order to target priority management actions under climate warming. This paper provides the synthesis of an international research program relying on >150 years-long, varved records for three managed perialpine lakes in Europe (Lakes Geneva, Annecy and Bourget. The dynamics of the dominant, local human pressures, as well as the ecological responses in the pelagic, benthic and littoral habitats were reconstructed using classical and newly developed paleo-proxies. Statistical modelling achieved the hierarchization of the drivers of their ecological trajectories. All three lakes underwent different levels of eutrophication in the first half of the XXth century, followed by re-oligotrophication. Climate warming came along with a 2°C increase in air temperature over the last century, to which lakes were unequally thermally vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, phosphorous concentration has been the dominant ecological driver over the last century. Yet, other human-influenced, local environmental drivers (fisheries management practices, river regulations have also significantly inflected ecological trajectories. Climate change has been impacting all habitats at rates that, in some cases, exceeded those of local factors. The amplitude and ecological responses to similar climate change varied between lakes, but, at least for pelagic habitats, rather depended on the intensity of local human pressures than on the thermal effect of climate change. Deep habitats yet showed higher sensitivity to climate change but substantial influence of river flows. As a consequence, adapted local management strategies, fully integrating nutrient inputs, fisheries management and hydrological regulations, may enable mitigating the deleterious consequences of ongoing climate change on these ecosystems.

  10. LakeMIP Kivu: evaluating the representation of a large, deep tropical lake by a set of one-dimensional lake models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WIM Thiery

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The African great lakes are of utmost importance for the local economy (fishing, as well as being essential to the survival of the local people. During the past decades, these lakes experienced fast changes in ecosystem structure and functioning, and their future evolution is a major concern. In this study, for the first time a set of one-dimensional lake models are evaluated for Lake Kivu (2.28°S; 28.98°E, East Africa. The unique limnology of this meromictic lake, with the importance of salinity and subsurface springs in a tropical high-altitude climate, presents a worthy challenge to the seven models involved in the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP. Meteorological observations from two automatic weather stations are used to drive the models, whereas a unique dataset, containing over 150 temperature profiles recorded since 2002, is used to assess the model's performance. Simulations are performed over the freshwater layer only (60 m and over the average lake depth (240 m, since salinity increases with depth below 60 m in Lake Kivu and some lake models do not account for the influence of salinity upon lake stratification. All models are able to reproduce the mixing seasonality in Lake Kivu, as well as the magnitude and seasonal cycle of the lake enthalpy change. Differences between the models can be ascribed to variations in the treatment of the radiative forcing and the computation of the turbulent heat fluxes. Fluctuations in wind velocity and solar radiation explain inter-annual variability of observed water column temperatures. The good agreement between the deep simulations and the observed meromictic stratification also shows that a subset of models is able to account for the salinity- and geothermal-induced effects upon deep-water stratification. Finally, based on the strengths and weaknesses discerned in this study, an informed choice of a one-dimensional lake model for a given research purpose becomes possible.

  11. Temporal variation of phytoplankton in a small tropical crater lake, Costa Rica

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    Gerardo Umaña-Villalobos

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The temporal variation in lake’s phytoplankton is important to understand its general biodiversity. For tropical lakes, it has been hypothesized that they follow a similar pattern as temperate ones, on a much accelerated pace; nevertheless, few case studies have tried to elucidate this. Most studies in Costa Rica have used a monthly sampling scheme and failed in showing the expected changes. In this study, the phytoplankton of the small Barvas’s crater lake was followed for more than three years, first with monthly and later with weekly samplings, that covered almost two years. Additional information on temperature and oxygen vertical profiles was obtained on a monthly basis, and surface temperature was measured during weekly samplings around noon. Results showed that in spite of its shallow condition (max. depth: 7m and low surface temperature (11 to 19°C, the lake stratifies at least for brief periods. The phytoplankton showed both, rapid change periods, and prolonged ones of relative stasis. The plankton composition fluctuated between three main phases, one characterized by the abundance of small sized desmids (Staurastrum paradoxum, Cosmarium asphaerosporum, a second phase dominated by equally small cryptomonads (Chryptochrysis minor, Chroomonas sp. and a third phase dominated by the green alga Eutetramorus tetrasporus. Although data evidenced that monthly sampling could miss short term events, the temporal variation did not follow the typical dry and rainy seasons of the region, or any particular annual pattern. Year to year variation was high. As this small lake is located at the summit of Barva Volcano and receives the influence from both the Caribbean and the Pacific weather, seasonality at the lake is not clearly defined as in the rest of the country and short term variations in the local weather might have a stronger effect than broad seasonal trends. The occurrence of this short term changes in the phytoplankton of small tropical

  12. Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Susan; Kirillin, Georgiy; Mehner, Thomas

    2012-09-01

    We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.

  13. Budgeting suspended sediment fluxes in tropical monsoonal watersheds with limited data: the Lake Tana basin

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    Zimale Fasikaw A.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion decreases soil fertility of the uplands and causes siltation of lakes and reservoirs; the lakes and reservoirs in tropical monsoonal African highlands are especially affected by sedimentation. Efforts in reducing loads by designing management practices are hampered by lack of quantitative data on the relationship of erosion in the watersheds and sediment accumulation on flood plains, lakes and reservoirs. The objective of this study is to develop a prototype quantitative method for estimating sediment budget for tropical monsoon lakes with limited observational data. Four watersheds in the Lake Tana basin were selected for this study. The Parameter Efficient Distributed (PED model that has shown to perform well in the Ethiopian highlands is used to overcome the data limitations and recreate the missing sediment fluxes. PED model parameters are calibrated using daily discharge data and the occasionally collected sediment concentration when establishing the sediment rating curves for the major rivers. The calibrated model parameters are then used to predict the sediment budget for the 1994-2009 period. Sediment retained in the lake is determined from two bathymetric surveys taken 20 years apart whereas the sediment leaving the lake is calculated based on measured discharge and observed sediment concentrations. Results show that annually on average 34 t/ha/year of sediment is removed from the gauged part of the Lake Tana watersheds. Depending on the up-scaling method from the gauged to the ungauged part, 21 to 32 t/ha/year (equivalent to 24-38 Mt/year is transported from the upland watersheds of which 46% to 65% is retained in the flood plains and 93% to 96% is trapped on the flood plains and in the lake. Thus, only 4-7% of all sediment produced in the watersheds leaves the Lake Tana Basin.

  14. Long term picoplankton dynamics in a warm-monomictic, tropical high altitude lake

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Macek, Miroslav; Alcocer, J.; Lugo Vázquez, A.; Martínez-Pérez, M.E.; Peralta Soriano, L.; Vilaclara Fatjó, G.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 68, č. 2 (2009), s. 183-192 ISSN 1129-5767 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ME 296 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60170517 Keywords : athalassohaline lake * picoplankton * anoxia * bacteria * chlorophyll-a Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.932, year: 2009

  15. An oxygen isotope record from Lake Xiarinur in Inner Mongolia since the last deglaciation and its implication for tropical monsoon change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qing; Chu, Guoqiang; Xie, Manman; Zhu, Qingzeng; Su, Youliang; Wang, Xisheng

    2018-04-01

    We present a high-resolution oxygen isotope record from authigenic carbonate (δ18Ocarb) from Lake Xiarinur (Inner Mongolia) since the last deglaciation. The lake is located at the modern northern limit of the monsoon, and is therefore sensitive to the extension of the East Asian summer monsoon. Based on calibration against the instrumental record, the δ18Ocar variation has been interpreted as changes in atmospheric circulation pattern on decadal time scales. On longer time scales, the δ18Ocarb in lake sediments could be mainly regulated by the relative contribution of nearby (remote) water-vapor sources associated with subtropical (tropical) monsoon through changes in the distance from sources to the site of precipitation. Increased remote water vapors from tropical monsoon would lead to lighter isotope value in our study site. Through time the δ18Ocarb record in Lake Xiarinur indicate a notable weak tropical monsoon during the Younger Dryas, a gradual increasing monsoon from the early Holocene and weakening monsoon after the middle Holocene. Oxygen isotope records from lakes and stalagmite in the Asian monsoon region across different localities show a general similar temporal pattern since the last deglaciation, and highlight a fundamental role of the tropical monsoon.

  16. Warming Affects Growth Rates and Microcystin Production in Tropical Bloom-Forming Microcystis Strains

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    Trung Bui

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Warming climate is predicted to promote cyanobacterial blooms but the toxicity of cyanobacteria under global warming is less well studied. We tested the hypothesis that raising temperature may lead to increased growth rates but to decreased microcystin (MC production in tropical Microcystis strains. To this end, six Microcystis strains were isolated from different water bodies in Southern Vietnam. They were grown in triplicate at 27 °C (low, 31 °C (medium, 35 °C (high and 37 °C (extreme. Chlorophyll-a-, particle- and MC concentrations as well as dry-weights were determined. All strains yielded higher biomass in terms of chlorophyll-a concentration and dry-weight at 31 °C compared to 27 °C and then either stabilised, slightly increased or declined with higher temperature. Five strains easily grew at 37 °C but one could not survive at 37 °C. When temperature was increased from 27 °C to 37 °C total MC concentration decreased by 35% in strains with MC-LR as the dominant variant and by 94% in strains with MC-RR. MC quota expressed per particle, per unit chlorophyll-a and per unit dry-weight significantly declined with higher temperatures. This study shows that warming can prompt the growth of some tropical Microcystis strains but that these strains become less toxic.

  17. Tropical/Subtropical Peatland Development and Global CH4 during the Last Glaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hai; Lan, Jianghu; Sheng, Enguo; Liu, Yong; Liu, Bin; Yu, Keke; Ye, Yuanda; Cheng, Peng; Qiang, Xiaoke; Lu, Fengyan; Wang, Xulong

    2016-07-28

    Knowledge of peatland development over the tropical/subtropical zone during the last glaciation is critical for understanding the glacial global methane cycle. Here we present a well-dated 'peat deposit-lake sediment' alternate sequence at Tengchong, southwestern China, and discuss the peatland development and its linkage to the global glacial methane cycle. Peat layers were formed during the cold Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-2 and -4, whereas lake sediments coincided with the relatively warm MIS-3, which is possibly related to the orbital/suborbital variations in both temperature and Asian summer monsoon intensity. The Tengchong peatland formation pattern is broadly synchronous with those over subtropical southern China and other tropical/subtropical areas, but it is clearly in contrast to those over the mid-high Northern Hemisphere. The results of this work suggest that the shifts of peatland development between the tropical/subtropical zone and mid-high Northern Hemisphere may have played important roles in the glacial/interglacial global atmospheric CH4 cycles.

  18. The trophic role and impact of plankton ciliates in the microbial web structure of a tropical polymictic lake dominated by filamentous cyanobacteria

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonso Esquivel; Aude Barani; Miroslav Macek; Ruth Ruth Soto-Castor; Celia Bulit

    2016-01-01

    The recent interest in the plankton structures and dynamics in tropical and subtropical lakes has revealed important trends that set these lakes apart from temperate lakes, and one of the main differences is the enhanced importance of the microbial food web with respect to net plankton. Ciliates are a key component of subtropical and tropical microbial webs because of their role as dominant picoplankton grazers and their ability to channel picoplankton production to the uppermost trophic leve...

  19. Effect of the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean warming since the late 1970s on wintertime Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate interdecadal changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Cuijiao; Yang, Xiu-Qun; Sun, Xuguang; Yang, Dejian; Jiang, Yiquan; Feng, Tao; Liang, Jin

    2018-04-01

    Observation reveals that the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean (TPIO) has experienced a pronounced interdecadal warming since the end of the 1970s. Meanwhile, the wintertime midlatitude Northern Hemispheric atmospheric circulation and East Asian climate have also undergone substantial interdecadal changes. The effect of the TPIO warming on these interdecadal changes are identified by a suite of AMIP-type atmospheric general circulation model experiments in which the model is integrated from September 1948 to December 1999 with prescribed historical, observed realistic sea surface temperature (SST) in a specific region and climatological SST elsewhere. Results show that the TPIO warming reproduces quite well the observed Northern Hemispheric wintertime interdecadal changes, suggesting that these interdecadal changes primarily originate from the TPIO warming. However, each sub-region of TPIO has its own distinct contribution. Comparatively, the tropical central-eastern Pacific (TCEP) and tropical western Pacific (TWP) warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive-phase PNA-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Pacific sector, while the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming tends to cancel these contributions. Meanwhile, the TIO and TWP warming makes dominant contributions to the observed positive NAO-like interdecadal anomaly over the North Atlantic sector as well as the interdecadal anomalies over the Eurasian sector, although the TWP warming's contribution is relatively small. These remote responses are directly attributed to the TPIO warming-induced tropical convection, rainfall and diabatic heating increases, in which the TIO warming has the most significant effect. Moreover, the TPIO warming excites a Gill-type pattern anomaly over the tropical western Pacific, with a low-level anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Philippine Sea. Of three sub-regions, the TIO warming dominates such a pattern, although the TWP warming tends to cancel this effect

  20. Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Area Expansion, Modoki Activity, and Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2014-01-01

    The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection. PMID:24686481

  1. Temporal coherence of physical, chemical and biological variables in four tropical lakes (Minas Gerais, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Peifer Bezerra

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim: The main objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of temporal coherence of limnological variables and pairs of lakes considering four tropical lakes of the Rio Doce State Park, using monthly data from the Long-Term Ecological Research Program (LTER between the years of 2004 to 2009. Methods Subsurface data (0.5 meters from the Carioca, Dom Helvécio, Gambazinho, and Jacaré Lakes were used in the analysis. We estimated the temporal coherence from the creation of time series for each of the variables. Through these series, we calculated the Pearson correlation coefficient between all pairs of lakes (N=6 and performed the average. We also analyzed the correlation between the temporal coherence found for the different pairs of lakes and two predictors of spatial patterns: proximity and exposure to climatic factors. The spatial proximity of the lake pairs was calculated in kilometers, and the exposure to climatic factors was estimated using two metrics: surface area and surface area/mean depth ratio. Results The largest temporal coherence levels were recorded for water temperature (0.97, pH (0.78, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC (0.74. The lowest levels were found for chlorophyll-a (0.25 and phytoplankton richness (-0.02. The average temporal coherence was 0.58. Different from other studies, no significant correlation was found between the synchronicity of the lake pairs and the differences in their exposure to climatic factors. Also, no relation was found with the spatial proximity. Conclusions Our results demonstrate the existence of temporal coherence in tropical lakes to compatible levels with those found in temperate regions. Our work contributes to the knowledge of how synchronicity works at different set of lakes and climatic regions.

  2. Amino acid composition reveals functional diversity of zooplankton in tropical lakes related to geography, taxonomy and productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aranguren-Riaño, Nelson J; Guisande, Cástor; Shurin, Jonathan B; Jones, Natalie T; Barreiro, Aldo; Duque, Santiago R

    2018-04-16

    Variation in resource use among species determines their potential for competition and co-existence, as well as their impact on ecosystem processes. Planktonic crustaceans consume a range of micro-organisms that vary among habitats and species, but these differences in resource consumption are difficult to characterize due to the small size of the organisms. Consumers acquire amino acids from their diet, and the composition of tissues reflects both the use of different resources and their assimilation in proteins. We examined the amino acid composition of common crustacean zooplankton from 14 tropical lakes in Colombia in three regions (the Amazon floodplain, the eastern range of the Andes, and the Caribbean coast). Amino acid composition varied significantly among taxonomic groups and the three regions. Functional richness in amino acid space was greatest in the Amazon, the most productive region, and tended to be positively related to lake trophic status, suggesting the niche breadth of the community could increase with ecosystem productivity. Functional evenness increased with lake trophic status, indicating that species were more regularly distributed within community-wide niche space in more productive lakes. These results show that zooplankton resource use in tropical lakes varies with both habitat and taxonomy, and that lake productivity may affect community functional diversity and the distribution of species within niche space.

  3. Responses of trophic structure and zooplankton community to salinity and temperature in Tibetan lakes: Implication for the effect of climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qiuqi; Xu, Lei; Hou, Juzhi; Liu, Zhengwen; Jeppesen, Erik; Han, Bo-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Warming has pronounced effects on lake ecosystems, either directly by increased temperatures or indirectly by a change in salinity. We investigated the current status of zooplankton communities and trophic structure in 45 Tibetan lakes along a 2300 m altitude and a 76 g/l salinity gradient. Freshwater to hyposaline lakes mainly had three trophic levels: phytoplankton, small zooplankton and fish/Gammarus, while mesosaline to hypersaline lakes only had two: phytoplankton and large zooplankton. Zooplankton species richness declined significantly with salinity, but did not relate with temperature. Furthermore, the decline in species richness with salinity in lakes with two trophic levels was much less abrupt than in lakes with three trophic levels. The structural variation of the zooplankton community depended on the length of the food chain, and was significantly explained by salinity as the critical environmental variable. The zooplankton community shifted from dominance of copepods and small cladoceran species in the lakes with low salinity and three trophic levels to large saline filter-feeding phyllopod species in those lakes with high salinity and two trophic levels. The zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio was positively related with temperature in two-trophic-level systems and vice versa in three-trophic-level systems. As the Tibetan Plateau is warming about three times faster than the global average, our results imply that warming could have a considerable impact on the structure and function of Tibetan lake ecosystems, either via indirect effects of salinization/desalinization on species richness, composition and trophic structure or through direct effects of water temperature on trophic interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Quantitative Temperature Reconstructions from Holocene and Late Glacial Lake Sediments in the Tropical Andes using Chironomidae (non-biting midges)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews-Bird, F.; Gosling, W. D.; Brooks, S. J.; Montoya, E.; Coe, A. L.

    2014-12-01

    Chironomidae (non-biting midges) is a family of two-winged aquatic insects of the order Diptera. They are globally distributed and one of the most diverse families within aquatic ecosystems. The insects are stenotopic, and the rapid turnover of species and their ability to colonise quickly favourable habitats means chironomids are extremely sensitive to environmental change, notably temperature. Through the development of quantitative temperature inference models chironomids have become important palaeoecological tools. Proxies capable of generating independent estimates of past climate are crucial to disentangling climate signals and ecosystem response in the palaeoecological record. This project has developed the first modern environmental calibration data set in order to use chironomids from the Tropical Andes as quantitative climate proxies. Using surface sediments from c. 60 lakes from Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador we have developed an inference model capable of reconstructing temperatures, with a prediction error of 1-2°C, from fossil assemblages. Here we present the first Lateglacial and Holocene chironomid-inferred temperature reconstructions from two sites in the tropical Andes. The first record, from a high elevation (4153 m asl) lake in the Bolivian Andes, shows persistently cool temperatures for the past 15 kyr, punctuated by warm episodes in the early Holocene (9-10 kyr BP). The chironomid-inferred Holocene temperature trends from a lake sediment record on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador (1248 m asl) spanning the last 5 millennia are synchronous with temperature changes in the NGRIP ice core record. The temperature estimates suggest along the eastern flank of the Andes, at lower latitudes (~1°S), climate closely resemble the well-established fluctuations of the Northern Hemisphere for this time period. Late-glacial climate fluctuations across South America are still disputed with some palaeoecological records suggesting evidence for Younger Dryas

  5. Quaternary glaciation and hydrologic variation in the South American tropics as reconstructed from the Lake Titicaca drilling project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Baker, Paul A.; Seltzer, Geoffrey O.; Ballantyne, Ashley; Tapia, Pedro; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence

    2007-11-01

    A 136-m-long drill core of sediments was recovered from tropical high-altitude Lake Titicaca, Bolivia-Peru, enabling a reconstruction of past climate that spans four cycles of regional glacial advance and retreat and that is estimated to extend continuously over the last 370,000 yr. Within the errors of the age model, the periods of regional glacial advance and retreat are concordant respectively with global glacial and interglacial stages. Periods of ice advance in the southern tropical Andes generally were periods of positive water balance, as evidenced by deeper and fresher conditions in Lake Titicaca. Conversely, reduced glaciation occurred during periods of negative water balance and shallow closed-basin conditions in the lake. The apparent coincidence of positive water balance of Lake Titicaca and glacial growth in the adjacent Andes with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet expansion implies that regional water balance and glacial mass balance are strongly influenced by global-scale temperature changes, as well as by precessional forcing of the South American summer monsoon.

  6. Rapid upslope shifts in New Guinean birds illustrate strong distributional responses of tropical montane species to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Benjamin G.; Class Freeman, Alexandra M.

    2014-01-01

    Temperate-zone species have responded to warming temperatures by shifting their distributions poleward and upslope. Thermal tolerance data suggests that tropical species may respond to warming temperatures even more strongly than temperate-zone species, but this prediction has yet to be tested. We addressed this data gap by conducting resurveys to measure distributional responses to temperature increases in the elevational limits of the avifaunas of two geographically and faunally independent New Guinean mountains, Mt. Karimui and Karkar Island, 47 and 44 y after they were originally surveyed. Although species richness is roughly five times greater on mainland Mt. Karimui than oceanic Karkar Island, distributional shifts at both sites were similar: upslope shifts averaged 113 m (Mt. Karimui) and 152 m (Karkar Island) for upper limits and 95 m (Mt. Karimui) and 123 m (Karkar Island) for lower limits. We incorporated these results into a metaanalysis to compare distributional responses of tropical species with those of temperate-zone species, finding that average upslope shifts in tropical montane species match local temperature increases significantly more closely than in temperate-zone montane species. That tropical species appear to be strong responders has global conservation implications and provides empirical support to hitherto untested models that predict widespread extinctions in upper-elevation tropical endemics with small ranges. PMID:24550460

  7. Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Liu, Wei

    2015-10-10

    The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although the weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.

  8. Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

    2017-01-25

    Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

  9. Herbivory of Omnivorous Fish Shapes the Food Web Structure of a Chinese Tropical Eutrophic Lake: Evidence from Stable Isotope and Fish Gut Content Analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Studies suggest that, unlike the situation in temperate lakes, high biomasses of omnivorous fish are maintained in subtropical and tropical lakes when they shift from a turbid phytoplankton-dominated state to a clear water macrophyte-dominated state, and the predation pressure on large-bodied zooplankton therefore remains high. Whether this reflects a higher degree of herbivory in warm lakes than in temperate lakes is debatable. We combined food web studies using stable isotopes with gut content analyses of the most dominant fish species to elucidate similarities and differences in food web structure between a clear water macrophyte-dominated basin (MDB and a turbid phytoplankton-dominated basin (PDB of Huizhou West Lake, a shallow tropical Chinese lake. The δ13C–δ15N biplot of fish and invertebrates revealed community-wide differences in isotope-based metrics of the food webs between MDB and PDB. The range of consumer δ15N (NR was lower in MDB than in PDB, indicating shorter food web length in MDB. The mean nearest neighbor distance (MNND and standard deviation around MNND (SDNND were higher in MDB than in PDB, showing a markedly low fish trophic overlap and a more uneven packing of species in niches in MDB than in PDB. The range of fish δ13C (CR of consumers was more extensive in MDB than in PDB, indicating a wider feeding range for fish in MDB. Mixing model results showed that macrophytes and associated periphyton constituted a large fraction of basal production sources for the fish in MDB, while particulate organic matter (POM contributed a large fraction in PDB. In MDB, the diet of the dominant fish species, crucian carp (Carassius carassius, consisted mainly of vegetal matter (macrophytes and periphyton and zooplankton, while detritus was the most important food item in PDB. Our results suggest that carbon from macrophytes with associated periphyton may constitute an important food resource for omnivorous fish, and this may strongly

  10. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  11. Distinctive effects of allochthonous and autochthonous organic matter on CDOM spectra in a tropical lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. M. Brandão

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Despite the increasing understanding about differences in carbon cycling between temperate and tropical freshwater systems, our knowledge on the importance of organic matter (OM pools on light absorption properties in tropical lakes is very scarce. We performed a factorial mesocosm experiment in a tropical lake (Minas Gerais, Brazil to evaluate the effects of increased concentrations of allochthonous and autochthonous OM, and differences in light availability on the light absorption characteristics of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM. Autochthonous OM deriving from phytoplankton ( ∼  Chl a was stimulated by addition of nutrients, while OM from degradation of terrestrial leaves increased allochthonous OM, and neutral shading was used to manipulate light availability. Effects of the additions and shading on DOC, Chl a, nutrients, total suspended solid concentrations (TSM and spectral CDOM absorption were monitored every 3 days. CDOM quality was characterized by spectral indices (S250–450, S275–295, S350–450, SR and SUVA254. Effects of carbon sources and shading on the spectral CDOM absorption was investigated through principal component (PCA and redundancy (RDA analyses. The two different OM sources affected CDOM quality very differently and shading had minor effects on OM levels, but significant effects on OM quality, especially in combination with nutrient additions. Spectral indices (S250–450 and SR were mostly affected by allochthonous OM addition. The PCA showed that enrichment by allochthonous carbon had a strong effect on the CDOM spectra in the range between 300 and 400 nm, while the increase in autochthonous carbon increased absorption at wavelengths below 350 nm. Our study shows that small inputs of allochthonous OM can have large effects on the spectral light absorption compared to large production of autochthonous OM, with important implications for carbon cycling in tropical lakes.

  12. Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeppesen, E.; Meerhoff, M.; Holmgren, K.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; Declerck, Steven A.J.; De Meester, L.; Søndergaard, M.; Lauridsen, T.; Bjerring, R.; Conde-Porcuna, J-M.; Mazzeo, N.; Iglesias, C.; Reizenstein, M.; Malmquist, H.J.; Liu, Z.; Balayla, D.; Lazzaro, X.

    2010-01-01

    Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation

  13. Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Laura E; Dawson, Michael N; Bell, Lori J; Colin, Patrick L

    2006-03-22

    Understanding El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Niña than El Niño conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Niño 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.

  14. Why does tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) increase with warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Jacob T.; Romps, David M.

    2015-12-01

    Recent work has produced a theory for tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) that highlights the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling of the atmosphere's saturation deficit as a driver of increases in CAPE with warming. Here we test this so-called "zero-buoyancy" theory for CAPE by modulating the saturation deficit of cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium in two ways: changing the sea surface temperature (SST) and changing the environmental relative humidity (RH). For earthlike and warmer SSTs, undilute parcel buoyancy in the lower troposphere is insensitive to increasing SST because of a countervailing CC scaling that balances the increase in the saturation deficit; however, buoyancy increases dramatically with SST in the upper troposphere. Conversely, in the RH experiment, undilute buoyancy throughout the troposphere increases monotonically with decreasing RH. We show that the zero-buoyancy theory successfully predicts these contrasting behaviors, building confidence that it describes the fundamental physics of CAPE and its response to warming.

  15. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-02-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  16. Holocene Paleohydrology of the tropical andes from lake records

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abbott, M. B., LLNL

    1997-03-03

    Two century-scale time series in northern Bolivia constrain the ages of abrupt changes in the physical, geochemical, and biological characteristics of sediments obtained from lakes that formed during deglaciation from the late Pleistocene glacial maximum. The watersheds of Laguna Viscachani (16{degrees}12`S, 68{degrees}07`W, 3780m) and Lago Taypi Chaka Kkota (16{degrees}13`S, 68{degrees}21`W, 4300m), located on the eastern and western slopes of the Cordillera Real, respectively, contain small cirque glaciers. A high-resolution chronology of the lake sediments is provided by 23 AMS {sup 14}C dates of discrete macro-fossils. Late Pleistocene glaciers retreated rapidly, exposing the lake basins between 10,700 and 9700 {sup 14}C yr B.P. The sedimentary facies suggest that after 8900 {sup 14}C B.P. glaciers were absent from the watersheds and remained so during the middle Holocene. An increase in the precipitation-evaporation balance is indicated above unconformities dated to about 2300 {sup 14}C yr B.P. in both Lago Taypi Chaka Kkota and Laguna Viscachani. An abrupt increase in sediment accumulation rated after 1400 {sup 14}C yr B.P. signals the onset of Neoglaciation. A possible link exists between the observed millennial-scale shifts in the regional precipitation- evaporation balance and seasonal shifts in tropical insolation.

  17. Eutrophication and warming effects on long-term variation of zooplankton in Lake Biwa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Hsieh

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available We compiled and analyzed long-term (1961–2005 zooplankton community data in response to environmental variations in Lake Biwa. Environmental data indicate that Lake Biwa had experienced eutrophication (according to the total phosphorus concentration in the late 1960s and recovered to a normal trophic status around 1985, and then has exhibited warming since 1990. Total zooplankton abundance showed a significant correlation with total phytoplankton biomass. Following a classic pattern, the cladoceran/calanoid and cyclopoid/calanoid abundance ratio was related positively to eutrophication. The zooplankton community exhibited a significant response to the boom and bust of phytoplankton biomass as a consequence of eutrophication-reoligotriphication and warming. Moreover, our analyses suggest that the Lake Biwa ecosystem exhibited a hierarchical response across trophic levels; that is, higher trophic levels may show a more delayed response or no response to eutrophication than lower ones.

    We tested the hypothesis that the phytoplankton community can better explain the variation of the zooplankton community than bulk environmental variables, considering that the phytoplankton community may directly affect the zooplankton succession through predator-prey interactions. Using a variance partition approach, however, we did not find strong evidence to support this hypothesis. We further aggregated zooplankton according to their feeding types (herbivorous, carnivorous, omnivorous, and parasitic and taxonomic groups, and analyzed the aggregated data. While the pattern remains similar, the results are less clear comparing the results based on finely resolved data. Our research suggests that zooplankton can be bio-indicators of environmental changes; however, the efficacy depends on data resolution.

  18. Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz

    2017-08-01

    Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.

  19. Walleye recruitment success is less resilient to warming water temperatures in lakes with abundant largemouth bass populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (i) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success and (ii) identify the influence of lake characteristics — area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD — on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = −0.11, 90% CI = −0.34, 0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%) and positive in 161 (45%). The effect of annual DD was most negative in lakes with high largemouth bass densities, and, on average, the probability of recruitment was highest in large lakes with low largemouth bass densities. Conductivity and mean DD influenced neither recruitment nor the effect of annual DD. Walleye recruitment was most resilient to warming in lakes with few largemouth bass, suggesting that the effects of climate change depend on lake-specific food-web and habitat contexts.

  20. A 1200-Year Record of Rapid Climate Changes Across the Tropical Americas Identified from Lake Sediments (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, M.; Rodbell, D. T.; Stansell, N.; Bird, B. W.; Vuille, M.

    2009-12-01

    Well-dated, highly resolved lake sediment stratigraphies from similar catchments across the tropical Americas provide a means to investigate the timing, rate and direction of climate variability as well as providing a way to evaluate whether rapid changes occur synchronously in both hemispheres. This presentation focuses on the last 1500 years from three new high-resolution stable isotope records including Yuraicocha (12°32'S, 75°29'W), Pumacocha (10°41'S, 76° 3'36W), and Gancho (8°27'N, 80°51'W). These lakes are all sensitive to changes in P/E and the sediment records respond at subdecadal timescales. Additionally, the results from these sites are compared with lake level records from Titicaca (16°14'S, 68°37'W) and Blanca (8°19'N, 71°46'W) as well as other lake core and speleothem records from the region. The results show that in general conditions are dry across South America from ~800 AD until ~1300 AD with wetter conditions in Central America and the Caribbean. This pattern of dry conditions in tropical South America and wet conditions in the north reverses after ~1300 when conditions become wetter in South America, and drier in Central America and the Carrabin.

  1. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Wehner

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  2. Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; Xia, Y.; Yan, Y.; Feng, W.; Huang, F.; Yang, X. Q.

    2017-12-01

    By using datasets of HadISST monthly SST from 1895 to 2014 and 600-year simulations of two CESM model experiments with/without doubling of CO2 concentration, ENSO characteristics are compared pre- and post- global warming. The main results are as follows. Due to global warming, the maximum climatological SST warming occurs in the tropical western Pacific (La Niña-like background warming) and the tropical eastern Pacific (El Niño-like background warming) for observations and model, respectively, resulting in opposite zonal SST gradient anomalies in the tropical Pacific. The La Niña-like background warming induces intense surface divergence in the tropical central Pacific, which enhances the easterly trade winds in the tropical central-western Pacific and shifts the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling westward, correspondingly. On the contrary, the El Niño-like background warming causes westerly winds in the whole tropical Pacific and moves the strongest ocean-atmosphere coupling eastward. Under the La Niña-like background warming, ENSO tends to develop and mature in the tropical central Pacific, because the background easterly wind anomaly weakens the ENSO-induced westerly wind anomaly in the tropical western Pacific, leading to the so-called "Central Pacific ENSO (CP ENSO)". However, the so-called "Eastern Pacific ENSO (EP ENSO)" is likely formed due to increased westerly wind anomaly by the El Niño-like background warming. ENSO lifetime is significantly extended under both the El Niño-like and the La Niña-like background warmings, and especially, it can be prolonged by up to 3 months in the situation of El Niño-like background warming. The prolonged El Nino lifetime mainly applies to extreme El Niño events, which is caused by earlier outbreak of the westerly wind bursts, shallower climatological thermocline depth and weaker "discharge" rate of the ENSO warm signal in response to global warming. Results from both observations and the model also show that

  3. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ping; Lin, I. -I; Chou, Chia; Huang, Rong-Hui

    2015-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous natural disasters. Because TC intensification is significantly controlled by atmosphere and ocean environments, changes in these environments may cause changes in TC intensity. Changes in surface and subsurface ocean conditions can both influence a TC's intensification. Regarding global warming, minimal exploration of the subsurface ocean has been undertaken. Here we investigate future subsurface ocean environment changes projected by 22 state-of-the-art climate models and suggest a suppressive effect of subsurface oceans on the intensification of future TCs. Under global warming, the subsurface vertical temperature profile can be sharpened in important TC regions, which may contribute to a stronger ocean coupling (cooling) effect during the intensification of future TCs. Regarding a TC, future subsurface ocean environments may be more suppressive than the existing subsurface ocean environments. This suppressive effect is not spatially uniform and may be weak in certain local areas. PMID:25982028

  4. Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

  5. Warm Water Pools of the Western Caribbean and Eastern Tropical Pacific: Their Influence on Intraseasonal Rainfall Regimes and Tropical Storm Activity in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.

    2007-05-01

    A dipole in tropical cyclone development between the Caribbean and the eastern tropical Pacific will be examined relative to its affect on southern Mexican rainfall. With the change over in the AMO and PDO in 1994 and 1998, respectively, tropical storm genesis has been increasing in the Caribbean while declining in the tropical east Pacific. This dipole in tropical cyclone development appears to be related to changes in the pre storm season heat content of the two ocean basins (data Scripps Institution of Oceanography). Preliminary work indicates that if the Caribbean is warmer than the Pacific by late May the dipole will be accentuated with a pronounced decrease in tropical storms in the east Pacific with an early and prolonged season in the Caribbean. In recent years there appears to have been an increase in the intensity and duration of midsummer drought (Canicula) in Mexico associated with changes in the PDO and AMO. These long term ocean oscillations appear to control the dipole in the strength of the Caribbean and East Pacific warm pools. Mid summer drought is a normal occurrence in much of Mexico and Central America, but the intensified droughts of the recent period have stressed the agricultural community of the region. Based on preliminary work, it appears that the recent increased frequency of midsummer drought can be linked to a shift in the warmest pool from the East Pacific to the Caribbean.

  6. Distributions of Heterocyst Glycolipids in Settling Particulate Matter Record Ecological and Environmental Parameters in a Tropical Lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meegan Kumar, D.; Hopmans, E.; S Sinninghe Damsté, J.; Schouten, S.; Bauersachs, T.; Werne, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Temperature is a critical component of paleoenvironmental reconstructions, yet it is notoriously difficult to measure in terrestrial archives. Presented here is an investigation of unique glycolipids produced by heterocystous cyanobacteria, so-called heterocyst glycolipids (HGs), in the water column of Lake Malawi (East Africa). The goal of the study is to evaluate the potential of HGs to function as a paleotemperature proxy in tropical lacustrine environments. HGs in Lake Malawi were extracted from settling particulate matter (SPM) collected at bi-monthly intervals from 2011 - 2013. Sediment traps were moored in the metalimnion of both the north and south basins of the lake in order to evaluate the spatial and the temporal trends in lipid production and export. This study is the first to analyze HGs in SPM and contains the longest time-series of HG production in a natural environment to date. HGs are consistently present throughout the three-year study period, but maximum fluxes occur annually in December, coincident with the timing of cyanobacterial blooms in the lake. HGs in SPM appear to be sourced from living cyanobacteria populations, indicating rapid export of the lipids through the water column. Temperatures reconstructed with published HG-based indices, which are derived from the relative abundances of HG diols and triols to HG keto-(di)ols, do not accurately reflect the seasonal variability in measured surface water temperatures. Rather, the production of C28 HG keto-ols appears to be related to the timing of heterocyst differentiation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria in Lake Malawi may instead respond to growth temperatures by elongating the alkyl side chain of HG diols, as indicated by increases in the abundance of the C28 HG diol relative to the C26 HG diol with warmer surface water temperatures. Distributions of HGs thus may indeed provide a novel tool for paleotemperature reconstructions in tropical lakes.

  7. Drifting algae and fish: Implications of tropical Sargassum invasion due to ocean warming in western Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamasaki, Mami; Aono, Mikina; Ogawa, Naoto; Tanaka, Koichiro; Imoto, Zenji; Nakamura, Yohei

    2014-06-01

    Evidence is accumulating that the invasion and extinction of habitat-forming seaweed species alters coastal community structure and ecological services, but their effects on the pelagic environment have been largely ignored. Thus, we examined the seasonal occurrence patterns of indigenous temperate and invasive tropical drifting algae and associated fish species every month for 2 years (2009-2011) in western Japan (Tosa Bay), where a rapid shift from temperate to tropical Sargassum species has been occurring in the coastal area since the late 1980s due to rising seawater temperatures. Of the 19 Sargassum species (31.6%) in drifting algae, we found that six were tropical species, whereas a study in the early 1980s found only one tropical species among 12 species (8.3%), thereby suggesting an increase in the proportion of tropical Sargassum species in drifting algae during the last 30 years. Drifting temperate algae were abundantly present from late winter to summer, whereas tropical algal clumps occurred primarily during summer. In the warm season, fish assemblages did not differ significantly between drifting temperate and tropical algae, suggesting the low host-algal specificity of most fishes. We also found that yellowtail juveniles frequently aggregated with drifting temperate algae from late winter to spring when drifting tropical algae were unavailable. Local fishermen collect these juveniles for use as aquaculture seed stock; therefore, the occurrence of drifting temperate algae in early spring is important for local fisheries. These results suggest that the further extinction of temperate Sargassum spp. may have negative impacts on the pelagic ecosystem and associated regional fisheries.

  8. The response of heterotrophic activity and carbon cycling to nitrogen additions and warming in two tropical soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniela F. Cusack; Margaret S. Torn; William H. McDowell; Whendee L. Silver

    2010-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) deposition is projected to increase significantly in tropical regions in the coming decades, where changes in climate are also expected. Additional N and warming each have the potential to alter soil carbon (C) storage via changes in microbial activity and decomposition, but little is known about the combined effects of these global change factors in...

  9. Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

    2015-12-01

    Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological

  10. Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

    2018-01-01

    In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

  11. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  12. Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

    2018-06-01

    This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

  13. Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

  14. Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2017-12-01

    Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

  15. Response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to El Niño versus global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Fukai; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Wan, Xiuquan

    2016-04-15

    Climate models project an El Niño-like SST response in the tropical Pacific Ocean to global warming (GW). By employing the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and applying an overriding technique to its ocean component, Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2), this study investigates the similarity and difference of formation mechanism for the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean under El Niño and GW. Results show that, despite sharing some similarities between the two scenarios, there are many significant distinctions between GW and El Niño: 1) the phase locking of the seasonal cycle reduction is more notable under GW compared with El Niño, implying more extreme El Niño events in the future; 2) in contrast to the penetration of the equatorial subsurface temperature anomaly that appears to propagate in the form of an oceanic equatorial upwelling Kelvin wave during El Niño, the GW-induced subsurface temperature anomaly manifest in the form of off-equatorial upwelling Rossby waves; 3) while significant across-equator northward heat transport (NHT) is induced by the wind stress anomalies associated with El Niño, little NHT is found at the equator due to a symmetric change in the shallow meridional overturning circulation that appears to be weakened in both North and South Pacific under GW; and 4) the maintaining mechanisms for the eastern equatorial Pacific warming are also substantially different.

  16. Fossil Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) as Paleothermometers in the African Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggermont, H.; Heiri, O.; Russell, J.; Vuille, M.; Audenaert, L.; Klaassen, G.; Verschuren, D.

    2008-12-01

    Reconstruction of Africa's temperature history from natural climate archives such as lake sediments is essential to amend the current scarcity of information on natural tropical climate and ecosystem variability. Chironomids are well-established paleothermometers in north-temperate/boreal regions, but their potential in tropical lakes has never before been assessed. We surveyed sub-fossil chironomid assemblages in surface sediments from 65 lakes and permanent pools in southwestern Uganda and central/southern Kenya, spanning elevations between 489 and 4575 m asl. Using various subsets of lakes and corresponding Surface-Water Temperatures (SWTemp) and Mean Annual Air Temperatures (MATemp), we developed a series of inference models for quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction. Models using both low-, mid- and high-elevation sites suffer to some extent from the small number of samples between 2500 and 3500 m asl, and from the presence of ecologically distinct but morphologically indistinguishable taxa. Models confined to mountain sites produce poorer error statistics, but are less prone to the biogeographical and taxonomic complexities associated with long climatic gradients. Overall, error statistics compare favourably with those of inference models developed for temperate regions, indicating that fossil assemblages of African Chironomidae can be valuable indicators of past temperature change. We subsequently used these models to evaluate whether high-elevation lakes in the Rwenzori Mountains (>3000 m asl) have been impacted by climate warming in recent centuries by comparing temperatures inferred from chironomid assemblages in modern sediments with those derived from chironomid assemblages in sediments deposited within or briefly after the Little Ice Age (1270-1850 AD). Depending on the model used, between 44 and 63% of the 16 lakes studied indicate significantly warmer temperatures in recent times (corresponding with an average MATemp rise of 0.88 ° C, and

  17. Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

    2018-05-01

    An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

  18. Ensamble de crustáceos bentónicos en un lago salino tropical Benthic crustaceans assemblage in a tropical, saline lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma. del Carmen Hernández

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available El presente trabajo reconoce la composición, estructura y distribución espacial del ensamble de crustáceos bentónicos de Alchichica, un lago salino tropical ubicado en el extremo oriental del altiplano mexicano. El lago presenta una riqueza taxonómica de crustáceos bentónicos compuesta por 1 anfípodo (Hyalella azteca, 1 isópodo (Caecidotea williamsi y 2 ostrácodos (Limnocythere inopinata y Candona sp.. Comparada con otros lagos tropicales, la riqueza de especies es reducida. A pesar de lo anterior, es importante mencionar el grado elevado de endemismo representado por C. williamsi, recientemente descrita para el lago Alchichica; adicionalmente, es factible que tanto Candona como H. azteca sean especies nuevas y endémicas del lago. Los crustáceos bentónicos se distribuyen desde la zona litoral hasta la zona más profunda del lago (62 m con abundancias y riqueza taxonómica variables. Los ostrácodos fueron los crustáceos que con mayor frecuencia se recolectaron en el lago, en la zona litoral, en el talud, y en la zona profunda de la que son habitantes exclusivos. Los anfípodos constituyeron el segundo grupo en abundancia de la zona litoral y talud y estuvieron ausentes en la zona profunda. Los isópodos sólo se encuentran asociados a los depósitos de tufa, hábitat característico del lago que se extiende a lo largo del talud, por lo que con las técnicas de muestreo tradicional empleadas en el presente estudio no fueron capturados. En este ensamble de crustáceos predominan las especies de desarrollo directo y con posiciones tróficas que incluyen componentes herbívoros (H. azteca, omnívoros (C. williamsi y bacterívoros (L. inopinata y Candona sp..This work acknowledges the composition, structure and spatial distribution of the benthic crustaceans assemblage of Alchichica, a tropical saline lake located in the easternmost portion of the Mexican highlands. The benthic crustaceans' assemblage was comprised by 1 amphipod

  19. Abrupt stop of deep water turnover with lake warming: Drastic consequences for algal primary producers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yankova, Yana; Neuenschwander, Stefan; Köster, Oliver; Posch, Thomas

    2017-10-23

    After strong fertilization in the 20 th century, many deep lakes in Central Europe are again nutrient poor due to long-lasting restoration (re-oligotrophication). In line with reduced phosphorus and nitrogen loadings, total organismic productivity decreased and lakes have now historically low nutrient and biomass concentrations. This caused speculations that restoration was overdone and intended fertilizations are needed to ensure ecological functionality. Here we show that recent re-oligotrophication processes indeed accelerated, however caused by lake warming. Rising air temperatures strengthen thermal stabilization of water columns which prevents thorough turnover (holomixis). Reduced mixis impedes down-welling of oxygen rich epilimnetic (surface) and up-welling of phosphorus and nitrogen rich hypolimnetic (deep) water. However, nutrient inputs are essential for algal spring blooms acting as boost for annual food web successions. We show that repeated lack (since 1977) and complete stop (since 2013) of holomixis caused drastic epilimnetic phosphorus depletions and an absence of phytoplankton spring blooms in Lake Zurich (Switzerland). By simulating holomixis in experiments, we could induce significant vernal algal blooms, confirming that there would be sufficient hypolimnetic phosphorus which presently accumulates due to reduced export. Thus, intended fertilizations are highly questionable, as hypolimnetic nutrients will become available during future natural or artificial turnovers.

  20. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on precipitation and temperature in Florida during North Atlantic cold spells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donders, Timme H. [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); TNO Geological Survey of the Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Boer, Hugo Jan de; Dekker, Stefan C. [Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80115, Utrecht (Netherlands); Finsinger, Walter; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Grimm, Eric C. [Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, Springfield, IL (United States); Reichart, Gert Jan [Utrecht University, Geochemistry, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80021, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-01-15

    Recurrent phases of increased pine at Lake Tulane, Florida have previously been related to strong stadials terminated by so-called Heinrich events. The climatic significance of these pine phases has been interpreted in different ways. Using a pollen-climate inference model, we quantified the climate changes and consistently found that mean summer precipitation (P{sub JJA}) increased (0.5-0.9 mm/day) and mean November temperature increased (2.0-3.0 C) during pine phases coeval with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. Marine sea surface temperature records indicate that potential sources for these moisture and heat anomalies are in the Gulf of Mexico and the western tropical Atlantic. We explain this low latitude warming by an increased Loop Current facilitated by persistence of the Atlantic Warm Pool during summer. This hypothesis is supported by a climate model sensitivity analysis. A positive heat anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic best approximates the pollen-inferred climate reconstructions from Lake Tulane during the (stadials around) Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. (orig.)

  1. Why bacteria are smaller in the epilimnion than in the hypolimnion? A hypothesis comparing temperate and tropical lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Bertoni

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Bacterial size and morphology are controlled by several factors including predation, viral lysis, UV radiation, and inorganic nutrients. We observed that bacterial biovolume from the hypolimnion of two oligotrophic lakes is larger than that of bacteria living in the layer from surface to 20 m, roughly corresponding to the euphotic/epilimnetic zone. One lake is located in the temperate region at low altitude (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy and the other in the tropical region at high altitude (Lake Alchichica, Mexico. The two lakes differ in oxygen, phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations and in the temperature of water column. If we consider the two lakes separately, we risk reducing the explanation of bacterial size variation in the water column to merely regional factors. Comparing the two lakes, can we gather a more general explanation for bacterial biovolume variation. The results showed that small bacteria dominate in the oxygenated, P-limited epilimnetic waters of both lakes, whereas larger cells are more typical of hypolimnetic waters where phosphorus and nitrogen are not limiting. Indeed, temperature per se cannot be invoked as an important factor explaining the different bacterial size in the two zones. Without excluding the top-down control mechanism of bacterial size, our data suggest that the average lower size of bacterial cells in the epilimnion of oligotrophic lakes is controlled by outcompetition over the larger cells at limiting nutrients.

  2. Emerging Glacial Lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru: A Case Study at Arteson Glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisolm, R. E.; Mckinney, D. C.; Gomez, J.; Voss, K.

    2012-12-01

    Tropical glaciers are an essential component of the water resources systems in the mountainous regions where they are located, and a warming climate has resulted in the accelerated retreat of Andean glaciers in recent decades. The shrinkage of Andean glaciers influences the flood risk for communities living downstream as new glacial lakes have begun to form at the termini of some glaciers. As these lakes continue to grow in area and volume, they pose an increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Ice thickness measurements have been a key missing link in studying the tropical glaciers in Peru and how climate change is likely to impact glacial melt and the growth of glacial lakes. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has rarely been applied to glaciers in Peru to measure ice thickness, and these measurements can tell us a lot about how a warming climate will affect glacier mass balance. This study presents GPR data taken in July 2012 at the Arteson glacier in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. A new lake has begun to form at the terminus of the Arteson glacier, and this lake has key features, including overhanging ice and loose rock likely to create landslides, that could trigger a catastrophic GLOF if the lake continues to grow. This new lake is part of a series of three lakes that have formed below the Arteson glacier. The two lower lakes, Artesonraju and Paron, are much larger so that if there were an avalanche or landslide into the new lake below Arteson glacier, the impact could potentially be more catastrophic than a GLOF from one single lake. Estimates of how the lake mass balance is likely to evolve due to the retreating glacier are key to assessing the flood risk from this dynamic three-lake system. Because the glacier mass balance and lake mass balance are closely linked, the ice thickness measurements and measurements of the bed slope of the Arteson glacier and underlying bedrock give us a clue to how the lake is likely to evolve. GPR measurements of

  3. Phosphorus decreases in Lake Geneva but climate warming hampers the recovery of pristine oligochaete communities whereas chironomids are less affected

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claude Lang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In response to the decrease of phosphorus concentrations in Lake Geneva (France and Switzerland, the mean percentage of individuals belonging to oligochaete species sensitive to low oxygen concentrations has increased in the profundal from 8% in 1983 to 31% in 2003. But these species decreased anew from 17% in 1999 to 2% in 2009 in the western basin of Lake Geneva (the Small Lake. This shallow basin is more exposed to the effects of warming observed since 1989 than the rest of the lake. To demonstrate these effects, the response of the main species to the increase of organic sedimentation was analysed in the gradient of fine sediment accumulation (FSA, observed in 1999 in the Small Lake. As expected, the abundance of four species classified as sensitive to low oxygen concentrations - Stylodrilus lemani, Embolocephalus velutinus, Bichaeta sanguinea, Paracladopelma nigritula gr. - decreased with the increase of FSA whereas the inverse relationship was observed for four species classified as tolerant Potamothrix vejdovskyi or very tolerant P. hammoniensis, P. heuscheri, and Tubifex tubifex. In contrast, the abundance of three species was not correlated with FSA: Stylodrilus heringianus and Micropsectra contracta both classified as sensitive, Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri as tolerant. The first component of a principal component analysis, based on the mean abundance per transect of the above species, was correlated with FSA. The second component could reflect the long-term increase of water temperature which has been advantageous for Limnodrilus and Micropsectra but disadvantageous for the sensitive oligochaete species less adapted to warm water lakes. Indeed, the abundance of the sensitive oligochaete species and of P. vejdovskyi has decreased from 1994 to 2009 in the Small Lake whereas the abundance of Limnodrilus has increased. Micropsectra and Paracladopelma became more abundant than sensitive oligochaete species. In addition to the effects of

  4. Tropical Glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fountain, Andrew

    The term "tropical glacier" calls to mind balmy nights and palm trees on one hand and cold, blue ice on the other. Certainly author Gabriel Garcia Marqez exploited this contrast in One Hundred Years of Solitude. We know that tropical fish live in warm, Sun-kissed waters and tropical plants provide lush, dense foliage populated by colorful tropical birds. So how do tropical glaciers fit into this scene? Like glaciers everywhere, tropical glaciers form where mass accumulation—usually winter snow—exceeds mass loss, which is generally summer melt. Thus, tropical glaciers exist at high elevations where precipitation can occur as snowfall exceeds melt and sublimation losses, such as the Rwenzori Mountains in east Africa and the Maoke Range of Irian Jaya.

  5. The trophic role and impact of plankton ciliates in the microbial web structure of a tropical polymictic lake dominated by filamentous cyanobacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso Esquivel

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The recent interest in the plankton structures and dynamics in tropical and subtropical lakes has revealed important trends that set these lakes apart from temperate lakes, and one of the main differences is the enhanced importance of the microbial food web with respect to net plankton. Ciliates are a key component of subtropical and tropical microbial webs because of their role as dominant picoplankton grazers and their ability to channel picoplankton production to the uppermost trophic levels. Plankton ciliates have been found to play a crucial role in the survival of fish larvae in lakes that share several features with Lake Catemaco, a eutrophic tropical Mexican lake. Therefore, the plankton ciliate composition, abundance, and biomass of Lake Catemaco were studied to assess their role in the microbial food web. The data were obtained from surface and bottom water samples collected at eleven points during three surveys in 2011 and an additional survey in 2013, with the surveys covering the local climatic seasons. The most abundant components of the plankton ciliate assemblages were small prostomatids (Urotricha spp., choreotrichs (Rimostrombidium spp., cyclotrichs (Mesodinium and Askenasia, and scuticociliates (Cyclidium, Cinetochilum, Pleuronema, and Uronema. Other important ciliates in terms of abundance and/or biomass were haptorids (Actinobolina, Belonophrya, Monodinium, Paradileptus, and Laginophrya, Halteria, oligotrichs (Limnostrombidium and Pelagostrombidium, Linostomella, Bursaridium, Cyrtolophosis, and Litonotus. The ciliate abundance averaged 57 cells mL-1 and ranged from 14 to 113 cells mL-1. The mean ciliate biomass was 71 µg C L-1 and ranged from 10 to 202 µg C L-1. Differences were not detected in ciliate abundance or biomass between the sampling points or sampling depths (surface to bottom; however, significant differences were observed between seasons for both variables. Nano-sized filamentous cyanobacteria were the most

  6. Is Recovery of Large-Bodied Zooplankton after Nutrient Loading Reduction Hampered by Climate Warming? A Long-Term Study of Shallow Hypertrophic Lake Søbygaard, Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Florencia Gutierrez

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Nutrient fluctuations and climate warming can synergistically affect trophic dynamics in lakes, resulting in enhanced symptoms of eutrophication, thereby potentially counteracting restoration measures. We performed a long-term study (23 years of zooplankton in Danish Lake Søbygaard, which is in recovery after nutrient loading reduction, but now faces the effects of climate warming. We hypothesized that the recovery of large-bodied zooplankton after nutrient loading reduction would be hampered by climate warming through indirect effects on fish size structure. We found a shift in macrozooplankton from initial dominance of Daphnia spp. towards Bosmina spp. as well as a decline in the body size of copepods and an increase in the abundance of nauplii. These changes coincided with the increase in small sized fish as a result of rising water temperature. Despite a reduction in body size, the total biomass of cladocerans increased coinciding with a diminished fish catch per unit effort (CPUE, and likely then an overall reduction in the predation on zooplankton. A cascading effect to phytoplankton was evidenced by enhanced zooplankton:phytoplankton and cladoceran:phytoplankton ratios and a decrease in Chl-a:TP and Chl-a:TN ratios. Our results indicate that climate warming, through changes in the size structure of fish community, has major effects on zooplankton size structure. In Lake Søbygaard, the decline in zooplankton size did not prevent, but modulated, the positive cascading effect on phytoplankton through an expected diminished fish CPUE related to nutrient loading reduction.

  7. Predicted effects of future climate warming on thermal habitat suitability for Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) in rivers in Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, John D.; Stewart, Jana S.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens, Rafinesque, 1817) may be threatened by future climate warming. The purpose of this study was to identify river reaches in Wisconsin, USA, where they might be vulnerable to warming water temperatures. In Wisconsin, A. fulvescens is known from 2291 km of large-river habitat that has been fragmented into 48 discrete river-lake networks isolated by impassable dams. Although the exact temperature tolerances are uncertain, water temperatures above 28–30°C are potentially less suitable for this coolwater species. Predictions from 13 downscaled global climate models were input to a lotic water temperature model to estimate amounts of potential thermally less-suitable habitat at present and for 2046–2065. Currently, 341 km (14.9%) of the known habitat are estimated to regularly exceed 28°C for an entire day, but only 6 km (0.3%) to exceed 30°C. In 2046–2065, 685–2164 km (29.9–94.5%) are projected to exceed 28°C and 33–1056 km (1.4–46.1%) to exceed 30°C. Most river-lake networks have cooler segments, large tributaries, or lakes that might provide temporary escape from potentially less suitable temperatures, but 12 short networks in the Lower Fox and Middle Wisconsin rivers totaling 93.6 km are projected to have no potential thermal refugia. One possible adaptation to climate change could be to provide fish passage or translocation so that riverine Lake Sturgeon might have access to more thermally suitable habitats.

  8. Heat-Wave Effects on Oxygen, Nutrients, and Phytoplankton Can Alter Global Warming Potential of Gases Emitted from a Small Shallow Lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartosiewicz, Maciej; Laurion, Isabelle; Clayer, François; Maranger, Roxane

    2016-06-21

    Increasing air temperatures may result in stronger lake stratification, potentially altering nutrient and biogenic gas cycling. We assessed the impact of climate forcing by comparing the influence of stratification on oxygen, nutrients, and global-warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gases (the sum of CH4, CO2, and N2O in CO2 equivalents) emitted from a shallow productive lake during an average versus a heat-wave year. Strong stratification during the heat wave was accompanied by an algal bloom and chemically enhanced carbon uptake. Solar energy trapped at the surface created a colder, isolated hypolimnion, resulting in lower ebullition and overall lower GWP during the hotter-than-average year. Furthermore, the dominant CH4 emission pathway shifted from ebullition to diffusion, with CH4 being produced at surprisingly high rates from sediments (1.2-4.1 mmol m(-2) d(-1)). Accumulated gases trapped in the hypolimnion during the heat wave resulted in a peak efflux to the atmosphere during fall overturn when 70% of total emissions were released, with littoral zones acting as a hot spot. The impact of climate warming on the GWP of shallow lakes is a more complex interplay of phytoplankton dynamics, emission pathways, thermal structure, and chemical conditions, as well as seasonal and spatial variability, than previously reported.

  9. Limnology of Botos Lake, a tropical crater lake in Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umaña, G

    2001-12-01

    Botos Lake, located at the Poas Volcano complex (Costa Rica) was sampled eight times from 1994 to 1996 for physicochemical conditions of the water column and phytoplanktonic community composition. Depth was measured at fixed intervals in several transects across the lake to determine its main morphometric characteristics. The lake has an outlet to the north. It is located 2580 m above sea level and is shallow, with a mean depth of 1.8 m and a relative depth of 2.42 (surface area 10.33 ha, estimated volume 47.3 hm3). The lake showed an isothermal water column in all occasions, but it heats and cools completely according to weather fluctuations. Water transparency reached the bottom on most occasions (> 9 m). The results support the idea that the lake is polymictic and oligotrophic. The lake has at least 23 species of planktonic algae, but it was always dominated by dinoflagellates, especially Peridinium inconspicuum. The shore line is populated by a sparse population of Isoetes sp. and Eleocharis sp. mainly in the northern shore where the bottom has a gentle slope and the forest does not reach the shore.

  10. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  11. First experimental evidence for carbon starvation at warm temperatures in epiphytic orchids of tropical cloud forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, Guenter; Roemer, Helena; Fioroni, Tiffany; Olmedo, Inayat; Kahmen, Ansgar

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cloud forests are among the most climate sensitive ecosystems world-wide. The lack of a strong seasonality and the additional dampening of temperature fluctuations by the omnipresence of clouds and fog produce year-round constant climatic conditions. With climate change the presence of clouds and fog is, however, predicted to be reduced. The disappearance of the cooling fog cover will have dramatic consequences for air temperatures, that are predicted to increase locally well over 5 °C by the end of the 21st century. Especially the large number of endemic epiphytic orchids in tropical cloud forests that contribute substantially to the biological diversity of these ecosystems, but are typically adapted to a very narrow climate envelope, are speculated to be very sensitive to the anticipated rise in temperature. In a phytotron experiment we investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on the carbon balance (gas-exchange and the carbon reserve household) of 10 epiphytic orchid species from the genera Dracula, native to tropical, South-American cloud forests. The orchids were exposed to three temperature treatments: i) a constant temperature treatment (23°C/13°C, day/night) simulating natural conditions, ii) a slow temperature ramp of +0.75 K every 10 days, and iii) a fast temperature ramp of +1.5 K every 10 days. CO2 leaf gas-exchanges was determined every 10 days, and concentrations of low molecular weight sugars and starch were analyses from leaf samples throughout the experiment. We found that increasing temperatures had only minor effects on day-time leaf respiration, but led to a moderate increase of respiration during night-time. In contrast to the rather minor effects of higher temperatures on respiration, there was a dramatic decline of net-photosynthesis above day-time temperatures of 29°C, and a complete stop of net-carbon uptake at 33°C in all investigated species. This high sensitivity of photosynthesis to warming was independent of the

  12. Temporal variation of phytoplankton in a small tropical crater lake, Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Umaña-Villalobos

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The temporal variation in lake’s phytoplankton is important to understand its general biodiversity. For tropical lakes, it has been hypothesized that they follow a similar pattern as temperate ones, on a much accelerated pace; nevertheless, few case studies have tried to elucidate this. Most studies in Costa Rica have used a monthly sampling scheme and failed in showing the expected changes. In this study, the phytoplankton of the small Barvas’s crater lake was followed for more than three years, first with monthly and later with weekly samplings, that covered almost two years. Additional information on temperature and oxygen vertical profiles was obtained on a monthly basis, and surface temperature was measured during weekly samplings around noon. Results showed that in spite of its shallow condition (max. depth: 7m and low surface temperature (11 to 19°C, the lake stratifies at least for brief periods. The phytoplankton showed both, rapid change periods, and prolonged ones of relative stasis. The plankton composition fluctuated between three main phases, one characterized by the abundance of small sized desmids (Staurastrum paradoxum, Cosmarium asphaerosporum, a second phase dominated by equally small cryptomonads (Chryptochrysis minor, Chroomonas sp. and a third phase dominated by the green alga Eutetramorus tetrasporus. Although data evidenced that monthly sampling could miss short term events, the temporal variation did not follow the typical dry and rainy seasons of the region, or any particular annual pattern. Year to year variation was high. As this small lake is located at the summit of Barva Volcano and receives the influence from both the Caribbean and the Pacific weather, seasonality at the lake is not clearly defined as in the rest of the country and short term variations in the local weather might have a stronger effect than broad seasonal trends. The occurrence of this short term changes in the phytoplankton of small tropical

  13. Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, William W L; Watson, Reg; Pauly, Daniel

    2013-05-16

    Marine fishes and invertebrates respond to ocean warming through distribution shifts, generally to higher latitudes and deeper waters. Consequently, fisheries should be affected by 'tropicalization' of catch (increasing dominance of warm-water species). However, a signature of such climate-change effects on global fisheries catch has so far not been detected. Here we report such an index, the mean temperature of the catch (MTC), that is calculated from the average inferred temperature preference of exploited species weighted by their annual catch. Our results show that, after accounting for the effects of fishing and large-scale oceanographic variability, global MTC increased at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2006, and non-tropical MTC increased at a rate of 0.23 degrees Celsius per decade. In tropical areas, MTC increased initially because of the reduction in the proportion of subtropical species catches, but subsequently stabilized as scope for further tropicalization of communities became limited. Changes in MTC in 52 large marine ecosystems, covering the majority of the world's coastal and shelf areas, are significantly and positively related to regional changes in sea surface temperature. This study shows that ocean warming has already affected global fisheries in the past four decades, highlighting the immediate need to develop adaptation plans to minimize the effect of such warming on the economy and food security of coastal communities, particularly in tropical regions.

  14. Mining and drought in the tropical Andes: a case study of lake Poopó

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zogheib, C.

    2017-12-01

    The respective impacts of mining water withdrawals and El Niño-related droughts on water availability in the Altiplano region of the tropical Andes were investigated. The naturally semi-arid to arid climate of the region is highly vulnerable to the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as changes to the Bolivian High upper troposphere circulation. The 2015-2016 El Niño event displayed a maximal Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of up to 2.2 °C, comparable with the 1998-1999 event, considered as the most severe of the 20th century with a maximal ONI of 2.5 °C. This has severely impacted the Altiplano region. Whereas mining has been found to affect observed water quality in the region, its influence on water availability has not been extensively examined. In light of these observations, the case of Lake Poopó, a water body at the intersection of both these climatic and anthropogenic influences, was further analyzed. The lake was officially declared dry in January 2016 by the Bolivian government. Therefore, a water balance model was implemented for the Lake Titicaca - Río Desaguadero - Lake Poopó - Salar de Coipasa (TDPS) catchment, simulating several possible climatic scenarios. Mines were identified and associated water withdrawals were extrapolated using available processing water consumption data. Long-term climatic trends, as averaged between 1970 and 2010 were used to assess the recovery prospects of the lake. Mining was found to have a very limited impact on water quantity in Lake Poopó, with total mining water withdrawals accounting for 0.2% to 0.4% of the total amount of water flowing into the lake from the Desaguadero River, reduced by only 1%. However, 1998 El Niño-induced drought conditions were found to cause a net yearly reduction in storage of 0.76 m. Under such climatic constraints, it was obtained that 32 months were needed for the lake to dry out from its height of 1.972 m as observed on the 10th of April 2013 and 38 months

  15. Planktonic cyanobacteria of the tropical karstic lake Lagartos from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valadez, Francisco; Rosiles-González, Gabriela; Almazán-Becerril, Antonio; Merino-Ibarra, Martin

    2013-06-01

    The tropical karstic lakes on the Mexican Caribbean Sea coast are numerous. However, there is an enormous gap of knowledge about their limnological conditions and micro-algae communities. In the present study, surface water samples were collected monthly from November 2007 to September 2008 to provide taxonomical composition and biovolume of planktonic cyanobacteria of the lake Lagartos from State of Quintana Roo, Mexico. Water temperature, pH, conductivity, salinity, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), and soluble reactive silica (SRSi) levels were also analyzed. A total of 22 species were identified. Chroococcales and Oscillatoriales dominated the phytoplankton assemblages during the study period. Chroococcus pulcherrimus, Coelosphaerium confertum, Cyanodyction iac, Phormidium pachydermaticum and Planktolyngbya contorta were recorded for the first time in Mexico. A surplus of DIN (mean value of 42.7 microM) and low concentrations of SRP (mean value of 1.0 microM) promoted the enhanced growth and bloom formation of cyanobacteria. The mean biovolume was 3.22 x 10(8) microm3/mL, and two biovolume peaks were observed; the first was dominated by Microcystis panniformis in November 2007 (7.40 x 10(8) microm3/mL), and the second was dominated by Oscillatoriaprinceps in April 2008 (6.55 x 10(8) microm3/mL). Water quality data, nitrates enrichment, and trophic state based on biovolume, indicated that Lagartos is a hyposaline, secondarily phosphorus-limited, and eutrophic lake, where the cyanobacteria flora was composed mainly by non-heterocystous groups.

  16. Analysis agriculture's impact in a system of lakes on a karst environment with tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olea Olea, Selene; Escolero Fuentes, Oscar

    2015-04-01

    This paper has as main object to analyze the impact of agriculture in the water quality of the "Lagos de Montebello" area; which is located in the Southeast of Mexico. This area is prominent by its tropical climate and a karstic environment. The issue arises in a lake system affected by pollution in the later years, which has turned its former clear water into a highly sedimented muddy water in the topographically lower terrains while no polluted on the higher ones; therefore it is intended to determine if the rise in agricultural activity in the lower terrains has induced this phenomenon. The impact of agriculture has been historically studied in temperate climates with karstic environments; nevertheless it has not been very well studied in tropical climates; which are the reason of this proposal to perform a study to analyze the impact of the intensive agriculture running in the area. To develop this project we studied the area regarding to the types of crops that has being established in the zone, being mostly tomato, corn, and bean; and the fertilizers and pesticides applied to them. A groundwater monitoring plan was designed with a variety of phases such as: piezometers building, measurement of groundwater levels, measurement of field parameters, with a two months intervals (Ph, temperature, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids), and water samplings for laboratory analysis (major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, pesticides) at twice a year, once during rainy season and then on drought. The rates of pollution agents infiltration depends on the type of soil retention and volume of water. The materials found in the soil by the piezometers are clay, silt, sand and variations between them. We determined that the geochemical qualities of the groundwater vary from calcic bicarbonate to calcic sulfated. The results reached with this monitoring provides a preliminary diagnosis on the possible causes and other implications that intensive agriculture in a

  17. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  18. Air temperature change in the northern and southern tropical Andes linked to North-Atlantic stadials and Greenland interstadials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrego, Dunia H.; Hooghiemstra, Henry

    2016-04-01

    We use eight pollen records reflecting climatic and environmental change from northern and southern sites in the tropical Andes. Our analysis focuses on the signature of millennial-scale climate variability during the last 30,000 years, in particular the Younger Dryas (YD), Heinrich stadials (HS) and Greenland interstadials (GI). We identify rapid responses of the vegetation to millennial-scale climate variability in the tropical Andes. The signature of HS and the YD are generally recorded as downslope migrations of the upper forest line (UFL), and are likely linked to air temperature cooling. The GI1 signal is overall comparable between northern and southern records and indicates upslope UFL migrations and warming in the tropical Andes. Our marker for lake level changes indicates a north to south difference that could be related to moisture availability. The direction of air temperature change recorded by the Andean vegetation is consistent with millennial-scale cryosphere and sea surface temperature records from the American tropics, but suggests a potential difference between the magnitude of temperature change in the ocean and the atmosphere.

  19. Mixing and its effects on biogeochemistry in the persistently stratified, deep, tropical Lake Matano, Indonesia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katsev, Sergei; Crowe, Sean; Mucci, Alfonso

    2010-01-01

    In the > 590-m deep, tropical Lake Matano (Indonesia), stratification is characterized by weak thermal gradients (... steady-state conditions, vertical eddy diffusion coefficients (K-z) cannot be estimated by conventional methods that rely on time derivatives of temperature distributions. We use and compare several alternative methods: one-dimensional k-epsilon modeling, three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling...... composition in the deep waters is close to those of the ground and tributary waters. The vertical distribution of K-z is used in a biogeochemical reaction-transport model. We show that, outside of a narrow thermocline region, the vertical distributions of dissolved oxygen, iron, methane, and phosphorus...

  20. IMPACT OF JUTE RETTING ON PHYTOPLANKTON DIVERSITY AND AQUATIC HEALTH: BIOMONITORING IN A TROPICAL OXBOW LAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dipankar Ghosh

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton acts as a primary producer and biological filter of aquatic ecosystem. Jute retting during monsoon is a common anthropological activity in the rural Bengal. Quantitative seasonal bio-monitoring of phytoplankton community composition with relative abundance and its diversity indices was carried out in this study from April 2013 to March 2014 to assess water quality and the impact of jute retting on phytoplankton diversity of a tropical fresh water oxbow lake in Nadia district of India. We recorded a total of 34 genera of 5 distinct classes, Chlorophyceae (15, Bacillariophyceae (13, Cyanophyceae (4, Dinophyceae (1 and Euglenophyceae (1. Members of Chlorophyceae dominated throughout the year. Unlike Cyanophyceae, Bacillariophyceae was found to be significantly increased during monsoon when compared to the rest of the year. Average phytoplankton density was highest in post-monsoon (8760/L followed by monsoon (4680/L and pre-monsoon (3650/L. Owing to the dominance of class Chlorophyceae and Bacillariophyceae we found this lake to be oligotrophic to mesotrophic. Indices values of genera richness, Shannon-Wiener, evenness and Simpson’s diversity reached their lowest 14, 1.61, 0.61 and 0.68 in monsoon and highest 23, 2.42, 0.77 and 0.86 in post monsoon respectively. The lowest diversity values during monsoon clearly suggested that the selected lake has highest anthropogenic pollution due to jute retting which impacted significantly on phytoplankton diversity. Therefore, the lake is not conducive for fish growth especially during monsoon and we opine that there is a need to regulate jute retting process, intensity and its density in the lake during the monsoon to ensure enhanced biodiversity for sustainable management and conservation of aquatic environment of this Oxbow lake.

  1. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

    1992-01-01

    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  2. Planktonic Cyanobacteria of the tropical karstic lake Lagartos from the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Valadez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The tropical karstic lakes on the Mexican Caribbean Sea coast are numerous. However, there is an enormous gap of knowledge about their limnological conditions and micro-algae communities. In the present study, surface water samples were collected monthly from November 2007 to September 2008 to provide taxonomical composition and biovolume of planktonic cyanobacteria of the lake Lagartos from State of Quintana Roo, Mexico. Water temperature, pH, conductivity, salinity, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN, and soluble reactive silica (SRSi levels were also analyzed. A total of 22 species were identified. Chroococcales and Oscillatoriales dominated the phytoplankton assemblages during the study period. Chroococcus pulcherrimus, Coelosphaerium confertum, Cyanodyction iac, Phormidium pachydermaticum and Planktolyngbya contorta were recorded for the first time in Mexico. A surplus of DIN (mean value of 42.7µM and low concentrations of SRP (mean value of 1.0µM promoted the enhanced growth and bloom formation of cyanobacteria. The mean biovolume was 3.22X10(8µm³/mL, and two biovolume peaks were observed; the first was dominated by Microcystis panniformis in November 2007 (7.40X10(8µm³/mL, and the second was dominated by Oscillatoria princeps in April 2008 (6.55X10(8µm³/mL. Water quality data, nitrates enrichment, and trophic state based on biovolume, indicated that Lagartos is a hyposaline, secondarily phosphorus-limited, and eutrophic lake, where the cyanobacteria flora was composed mainly by non-heterocystous groups.

  3. Vegetation dynamics of the Guatemalan lowlands from MIS7 to MIS5: Evidence from Lake Petén-Itzá

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Silva, E.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Bush, M. B.

    2013-05-01

    Reconstructing vegetation patterns of past warm climatic stages is critical for understanding modern processes that affect diversity and climate. Tropical lowlands are of special interest because of the high biodiversity they foster and the risks they face under a scenario of rapid climate change. With a basal age of more that 191,000 years, core PI-1 from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemalan lowlands, offer an exceptional opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the vegetation of the area during climatic stages that might be analogous to today. Pollen analysis of the lower part of this sedimentary record shows a sequence of five different climatic stages of alternating warm and cold conditions. According to our interpretation, tropical forests extended in the area during MIS7 and MIS5, with the former characterized by drier conditions than the latter. Apparently forest dynamics closely followed global climatic changes that were recorded in the Antarctic and the Marine Stack records. Our results confirm that vegetation of the Peninsula, although highly resilient, has been very sensitive to global climatic changes.

  4. Determination of parameters influencing methylation and demethylation in tropical lakes in Brazil and Nicaragua

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hylander, Lars D.; Ahlgren, Ingemar; Erikson, Rolf; Lantz, Peter; Toernblom, Erik; Forsberg, Bruce R.; Guimaraes, Jean R.D.; Meili, Markus; Montenegro Guillen, Salvador; Vammen, Katherine; Altamirano, Maximina; Zelaya, Argentina; Sarria Sacasa, Karla; Jimenez, Mario

    2001-01-01

    Increased awareness about the toxicity of mercury (Hg) has during the latest decades resulted in reduced Hg use in industrialised countries. Developing countries, on the contrary, have largely increased their anthropogenic Hg emissions caused by its use in gold mining, transfer of Hg emitting factories from developed countries, and increased burning of coal without appropriate flue gas cleaning. These increased emissions occur mainly in the tropics, where the fate of Hg is not well documented. The aim of the present study is to increase the knowledge about Hg levels and transformations in two tropical areas affected by anthropogenic Hg emissions - the Pantanal wetland in Brazil, housing gold miners using the amalgamation method, and Lake Xolotilan (Managua) in Nicaragua, where a chlor-alkali plant relocated from the USA has emitted much Hg. Actual Hg content in water, biota, and sediment will be determined by atomic fluorescence spectrophotometry and atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Mercury inethylation capacity in sediments and selected biota will be determined with in-situ incubations with 203 Hg and subsequent radiological measurements. Factors affecting the methylation and demethylation rates will be identified by varying environmental conditions such as pH, redox potential, conductivity, light, temperature, geochemical factors and population of bacteria. Sediment turnover will be studied by determining fallout cesium ( 137 Cs) in sediment profiles. The study is expected to increase the knowledge about Hg-transformations in the tropics and point out proper measures to reduce health hazards due to Hg-exposure. (author)

  5. Exogenous thyroid hormones regulate the activity of citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase in warm- but not cold-acclimated lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Megan A.; Regish, Amy M.; McCormick, Stephen; Manzon, Richard G.

    2017-01-01

    Thermal acclimation is known to elicit metabolic adjustments in ectotherms, but the cellular mechanisms and endocrine control of these shifts have not been fully elucidated. Here we examined the relationship between thermal acclimation, thyroid hormones and oxidative metabolism in juvenile lake whitefish. Impacts of thermal acclimation above (19 °C) or below (8 °C) the thermal optimum (13 °C) and exposure to exogenous thyroid hormone (60 µg T4/g body weight) were assessed by quantifying citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in liver, red muscle, white muscle and heart. Warm acclimation decreased citrate synthase activity in liver and elevated both citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in red muscle. In contrast, induction of hyperthyroidism in warm-acclimated fish stimulated a significant increase in liver citrate synthase and heart cytochrome c oxidase activities, and a decrease in the activity of both enzymes in red muscle. No change in citrate synthase or cytochrome c oxidase activities was observed following cold acclimation in either the presence or absence of exogenous thyroid hormones. Collectively, our results indicate that thyroid hormones influence the activity of oxidative enzymes more strongly in warm-acclimated than in cold-acclimated lake whitefish, and they may play a role in mediating metabolic adjustments observed during thermal acclimation.

  6. Exogenous thyroid hormones regulate the activity of citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase in warm- but not cold-acclimated lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zak, Megan A; Regish, Amy M; McCormick, Stephen D; Manzon, Richard G

    2017-06-01

    Thermal acclimation is known to elicit metabolic adjustments in ectotherms, but the cellular mechanisms and endocrine control of these shifts have not been fully elucidated. Here we examined the relationship between thermal acclimation, thyroid hormones and oxidative metabolism in juvenile lake whitefish. Impacts of thermal acclimation above (19°C) or below (8°C) the thermal optimum (13°C) and exposure to exogenous thyroid hormone (60µg T 4 /g body weight) were assessed by quantifying citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in liver, red muscle, white muscle and heart. Warm acclimation decreased citrate synthase activity in liver and elevated both citrate synthase and cytochrome c oxidase activities in red muscle. In contrast, induction of hyperthyroidism in warm-acclimated fish stimulated a significant increase in liver citrate synthase and heart cytochrome c oxidase activities, and a decrease in the activity of both enzymes in red muscle. No change in citrate synthase or cytochrome c oxidase activities was observed following cold acclimation in either the presence or absence of exogenous thyroid hormones. Collectively, our results indicate that thyroid hormones influence the activity of oxidative enzymes more strongly in warm-acclimated than in cold-acclimated lake whitefish, and they may play a role in mediating metabolic adjustments observed during thermal acclimation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. LakeSST: Lake Skin Surface Temperature in French inland water bodies for 1999-2016 from Landsat archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prats, Jordi; Reynaud, Nathalie; Rebière, Delphine; Peroux, Tiphaine; Tormos, Thierry; Danis, Pierre-Alain

    2018-04-01

    The spatial and temporal coverage of the Landsat satellite imagery make it an ideal resource for the monitoring of water temperature over large territories at a moderate spatial and temporal scale at a low cost. We used Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 archive images to create the Lake Skin Surface Temperature (LakeSST) data set, which contains skin water surface temperature data for 442 French water bodies (natural lakes, reservoirs, ponds, gravel pit lakes and quarry lakes) for the period 1999-2016. We assessed the quality of the satellite temperature measurements by comparing them to in situ measurements and taking into account the cool skin and warm layer effects. To estimate these effects and to investigate the theoretical differences between the freshwater and seawater cases, we adapted the COARE 3.0 algorithm to the freshwater environment. We also estimated the warm layer effect using in situ data. At the reservoir of Bimont, the estimated cool skin effect was about -0.3 and -0.6 °C most of time, while the warm layer effect at 0.55 m was negligible on average, but could occasionally attain several degrees, and a cool layer was often observed in the night. The overall RMSE of the satellite-derived temperature measurements was about 1.2 °C, similar to other applications of satellite images to estimate freshwater surface temperatures. The LakeSST data can be used for studies on the temporal evolution of lake water temperature and for geographical studies of temperature patterns. The LakeSST data are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1193745" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1193745.

  8. The Lake Petén Itzá Scientifi c Drilling Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Ariztegui

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Polar ice cores provide us with high-resolution records of past climate change at high latitudes on both glacial-to-interglacial and millennial timescales. Paleoclimatologists and climate modelers have focused increasingly on the tropics, however, as a potentially important driver of global climate change because of the region’s role in controlling the Earth’s energy budget and in regulating the water vapor content of the atmosphere. Tropical climate change is often expressed most strongly as variations in precipitation, and closed-basin lakes are sensitive recorders of the balance between precipitation and evaporation. Recent advances in fl oating platformsand drilling technology now offer the paleolimnological community the opportunity to obtain long sediment records from lowland tropical lakes, as illustrated by the recent successful drilling of Lakes Bosumtwi and Malawi in Africa (Koeberl et al., 2005; Scholz et al., 2006. Tropical lakes suitable for paleoclimatic research were sought in Central America to complement the African lake drilling. Most lakes in the Neotropics are shallow, however, and these basins fell dry during the Late Glacial period because the climate in the region was more arid than today. The search for an appropriate lake to study succeeded in 1999 when a bathymetric survey of Lake Petén Itzá, northern Guatemala, revealed a maximum depth of 165 m, making itthe deepest lake in the lowlands of Central America (Fig. 1 .Although the lake was greatly reduced in volume during the Late Glacial period, the deep basin remained submerged and thus contains a continuous history of lacustrine sediment deposition. A subsequent seismic survey of Lake Petén Itzá in 2002 showed a thick sediment package overlying basement, with several subbasins containing up to 100 m of sediment (Anselmetti et al., 2006.

  9. Late Pleistocene and Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in the Tropical Andes from Alpine Lake Sediments, Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, D. J.; Abbott, M. B.; Polissar, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    The tropics play a major role in the global hydrologic cycle and changes to tropical rainfall patterns have critical implications for water resources and ecosystem dynamics over large geographic scales. In tropical South America, late Pleistocene and Holocene precipitation variability has been documented in geologic records and associated with numerous external and internal variables, including changes in summer insolation, South American summer monsoon strength, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, continental moisture recycling, and other climate processes. However, there are few records from the northern hemisphere tropical Americas, a key region for understanding interhemispheric linkages and the drivers of tropical hydroclimate variability. Here, we present a ~13 ka record of coupled hydroclimate and environmental changes from Laguna Brava, a small (~0.07 km2), hydrologically closed lake basin situated at 2400 m asl in the Cordillera de Mérida, Venezuela. Sediment cores collected from varying water depths and proximity to shore are placed in a chronologic framework using radiocarbon ages from terrestrial macrofossils, and analyzed for a suite of physical, bulk geochemical, and stable isotopic parameters. Compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) measurements of terrestrial plant waxes (long-chain n-alkanes) show a sharp increase in the late Pleistocene, followed by a long-term trend toward more negative values that suggest a ~20‰ decrease in the D/H ratios of South American tropical precipitation during the Holocene. This pattern is consistent in sign and magnitude to other South American precipitation reconstructions from both hemispheres, indicating interhemispheric similarities in tropical hydroclimate variability. Superimposed on this continent-scale trend are changes in moisture balance and environmental conditions in the Venezuelan Andes. We reconstruct these parameters at Laguna Brava at multidecadal and centennial resolution and evaluate this

  10. Trends in historical mercury deposition inferred from lake sediment cores across a climate gradient in the Canadian High Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korosi, Jennifer B; Griffiths, Katherine; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

    2018-06-02

    Recent climate change may be enhancing mercury fluxes to Arctic lake sediments, confounding the use of sediment cores to reconstruct histories of atmospheric deposition. Assessing the independent effects of climate warming on mercury sequestration is challenging due to temporal overlap between warming temperatures and increased long-range transport of atmospheric mercury following the Industrial Revolution. We address this challenge by examining mercury trends in short cores (the last several hundred years) from eight lakes centered on Cape Herschel (Canadian High Arctic) that span a gradient in microclimates, including two lakes that have not yet been significantly altered by climate warming due to continued ice cover. Previous research on subfossil diatoms and inferred primary production indicated the timing of limnological responses to climate warming, which, due to prevailing ice cover conditions, varied from ∼1850 to ∼1990 for lakes that have undergone changes. We show that climate warming may have enhanced mercury deposition to lake sediments in one lake (Moraine Pond), while another (West Lake) showed a strong signal of post-industrial mercury enrichment without any corresponding limnological changes associated with warming. Our results provide insights into the role of climate warming and organic carbon cycling as drivers of mercury deposition to Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Possible climatic impact of tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, G L; Ellsaesser, H W; MacCracken, M C; Luther, F M

    1975-12-25

    A computer model of climate changes resulting from removal of tropical rain forests to increase arable acreage is described. A chain of consequences is deduced from the model which begins with deforestation and ends with overall global cooling and a reduction in precipitation. A model of the global water budget shows that the reduction in precipitation is accompanied by cooling in the upper tropical troposphere, a lowering of the tropical tropopause, and a warming of the lower tropical stratosphere. (HLW)

  12. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  13. Denitrification, anammox and fixed nitrogen removal in the water column of a tropical great lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darchambeau, François; Roland, Fleur; Crowe, Sean A.; De Brabandere, Loreto; Llirós, Marc; Garcia-Armisen, Tamara; Inceoglu, Ozgul; Michiels, Céline; Servais, Pierre; Morana, Cédric D. T.; Bouillon, Steven; Meysman, Filip; Veuger, Bart; Masilya, Pascal M.; Descy, Jean-Pierre; Borges, Alberto V.

    2013-04-01

    If rates of microbial denitrification in aquatic systems are poorly constrained, it is much more the case for tropical water bodies. Lake Kivu [2.50° S 1.59° S, 29.37° E 28.83° E] is one of the great lakes of the East African Rift. It is an oligotrophic lake characterized by anoxic deep waters rich in dissolved gases (methane and carbon dioxide) and nutrients, and by well oxygenated and nutrient-depleted surface waters. During the seasonally stratified rainy season (October to May), a nitrogenous zone characterized by the accumulation of nitrite (NO2-) and nitrate (NO3-) is often observed in the lower layer of the mixolimnion. It results from nitrification of ammonium released by decaying organic matter. With the seasonal uplift of the oxygen minimum zone, the nitrogenous zone becomes anoxic and might be the most preferential area for fixed nitrogen (N) removal in Lake Kivu. Our work aimed at identifying and quantifying the processes of N losses by denitrification and/or anammox in the nitrogenous zone of the Lake Kivu water column. During 5 sampling campaigns (March 2010, October 2010, June 2011, February 2012 and September 2012), isotopic labelling experiments were used to quantify denitrification and anammox rates along vertical profiles at two pelagic stations of the main lake. Moreover, N2:Ar ratios were estimated during the September 2012 campaign, and 16S rDNA pyrosequencing was used to describe bacterial community composition during the last 2 campaigns. No bacteria related to organisms performing anammox was observed and labelling experiments failed to detect anammox at any locations and any depths. In Lake Kivu, denitrifying bacteria were mainly related to Denitratisoma and Thiobacillus genus. Significant denitrification rates were observed at several occasions, especially under the oxic-anoxic interface in the bottom of the nitracline. The annual average denitrification rate was estimated at ~150 μmoles N m-2 d-1. Denitrification was not the only

  14. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

    2013-02-21

    The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

  15. Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Richard T

    2011-11-01

    Before the end of this century, tropical rainforests will be subject to climatic conditions that have not existed anywhere on Earth for millions of years. These forests are the most species-rich ecosystems in the world and play a crucial role in regulating carbon and water feedbacks in the global climate system; therefore, it is important that the probable impacts of anthropogenic climate change are understood. However, the recent literature shows a striking range of views on the vulnerability of tropical rainforests, from least to most concern among major ecosystems. This review, which focuses on the impact of rising temperatures, examines the evidence for and against high vulnerability, identifies key research needs for resolving current differences and suggests ways of mitigating or adapting to potential impacts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The IOD-ENSO precursory teleconnection over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean: dynamics and long-term trends under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Dongliang; Hu, Xiaoyue; Xu, Peng; Zhao, Xia; Masumoto, Yukio; Han, Weiqing

    2018-01-01

    The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%-15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.

  17. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

    2017-08-01

    The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

  18. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

  19. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-01-01

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east–west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific’s could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. PMID:23112174

  20. Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

    2012-11-13

    It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

  1. Temperature responses of tropical to warm temperate Cladophora species in relation to their distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambridge, M. L.; Breeman, A. M.; Kraak, S.; van den Hoek, C.

    1987-09-01

    The relationship between distribution boundaries and temperature responses of some North Atlantic Cladophora species (Chlorophyta) was experimentally examined under various regimes of temperature, light and daylength. Experimentally determined critical temperature intervals, in which survival, growth or reproduction was limited, were compared with annual temperature regimes (monthly means and extremes) at sites inside and outside distribution boundaries. The species tested belonged to two phytogeographic groups: (1) the tropical West Atlantic group ( C. submarina: isolate from Curaçao) and (2) the amphiatlantic tropical to warm temperate group ( C. prolifera: isolate from Corsica; C. coelothrix: isolates from Brittany and Curaçao; and C. laetevirens: isolates from deep and shallow water in Corsica and from Brittany). In accordance with distribution from tropical to warm temperate regions, each of the species grew well between 20 30°C and reproduction and growth were limited at and below 15°C. The upper survival limit in long days was <35°C in all species but high or maximum growth rates occurred at 30°C. C. prolifera, restricted to the tropical margins, had the most limited survival at 35°C. Experimental evidence suggests that C. submarina is restricted to the Caribbean and excluded from the more northerly American mainland and Gulf of Mexico coasts by sporadic low winter temperatures in the nearshore waters, when cold northerly weather penetrates far south every few years. Experimental evidence suggests that C. prolifera, C. coelothrix and C. laetevirens are restricted to their northern European boundaries by summer temperatures too low for sufficient growth and/or reproduction. Their progressively more northerly located boundaries were accounted for by differences in growth rates over the critical 10 15°C interval. C. prolifera and C. coelothrix are excluded or restricted in distribution on North Sea coasts by lethal winter temperatures, again differences

  2. Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Råman Vinnå, Love; Wüest, Alfred; Zappa, Massimiliano; Fink, Gabriel; Bouffard, Damien

    2018-01-01

    Thermal responses of inland waters to climate change varies on global and regional scales. The extent of warming is determined by system-specific characteristics such as fluvial input. Here we examine the impact of ongoing climate change on two alpine tributaries, the Aare River and the Rhône River, and their respective downstream peri-alpine lakes: Lake Biel and Lake Geneva. We propagate regional atmospheric temperature effects into river discharge projections. These, together with anthropogenic heat sources, are in turn incorporated into simple and efficient deterministic models that predict future water temperatures, river-borne suspended sediment concentration (SSC), lake stratification and river intrusion depth/volume in the lakes. Climate-induced shifts in river discharge regimes, including seasonal flow variations, act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing river water temperature and SSC. Differences in temperature and heating regimes between rivers and lakes in turn result in large seasonal shifts in warming of downstream lakes. The extent of this repressive effect on warming is controlled by the lakes hydraulic residence time. Previous studies suggest that climate change will diminish deep-water oxygen renewal in lakes. We find that climate-related seasonal variations in river temperatures and SSC shift deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter. Thus potentially counteracting the otherwise negative effects associated with climate change on deep-water oxygen content. Our findings provide a template for evaluating the response of similar hydrologic systems to on-going climate change.

  3. Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Råman Vinnå

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermal responses of inland waters to climate change varies on global and regional scales. The extent of warming is determined by system-specific characteristics such as fluvial input. Here we examine the impact of ongoing climate change on two alpine tributaries, the Aare River and the Rhône River, and their respective downstream peri-alpine lakes: Lake Biel and Lake Geneva. We propagate regional atmospheric temperature effects into river discharge projections. These, together with anthropogenic heat sources, are in turn incorporated into simple and efficient deterministic models that predict future water temperatures, river-borne suspended sediment concentration (SSC, lake stratification and river intrusion depth/volume in the lakes. Climate-induced shifts in river discharge regimes, including seasonal flow variations, act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing river water temperature and SSC. Differences in temperature and heating regimes between rivers and lakes in turn result in large seasonal shifts in warming of downstream lakes. The extent of this repressive effect on warming is controlled by the lakes hydraulic residence time. Previous studies suggest that climate change will diminish deep-water oxygen renewal in lakes. We find that climate-related seasonal variations in river temperatures and SSC shift deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter. Thus potentially counteracting the otherwise negative effects associated with climate change on deep-water oxygen content. Our findings provide a template for evaluating the response of similar hydrologic systems to on-going climate change.

  4. Anaerobic methane oxidation and aerobic methane production in an east African great lake (Lake Kivu)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roland, Fleur A.E.; Morana, Cédric; Darchambeau, François

    2018-01-01

    We investigated CH4 oxidation in the water column of Lake Kivu, a deep meromictic tropical lake with CH4-rich anoxic deep waters. Depth profiles of dissolved gases (CH4 and N2O) and a diversity of potential electron acceptors for anaerobic CH4 oxidation (NO3 −, SO4 2−, Fe and Mn oxides) were dete...

  5. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-11-02

    A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

  6. Terrestrial water flux responses to global warming in tropical rainforest areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia; Kumar, Sanjiv

    2016-05-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results show that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

  7. Tropical sea surface temperatures and the earth's orbital eccentricity cycles

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gupta, S.M.; Fernandes, A.A.; Mohan, R.

    The tropical oceanic warm pools are climatologically important regions because their sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to atmospheric greenhouse effect and the cumulonimbus-cirrus cloud anvil. Such a warm pool is also present...

  8. Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

    OpenAIRE

    van Soelen, E.E.

    2012-01-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, (sub)tropical coastal regions are expected to be heavily impacted by future climate change. To improve our understanding of the possible consequences of futu...

  9. Moisture sources of the Mono Lake deglacial pluvial events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liang, M. C.; Ali, G.; Shen, C. C.; Cai, Y.; Ke, L.; Hemming, S. R.

    2016-12-01

    Enormously expanded lakes existed in the today's dry western US Great Basin during the last glacial period. The ancient shorelines located well above modern lake levels suggest that precipitation in lake basins must have been substantially higher in the past. It is however under debate whether the subtropical North Pacific or the tropical Pacific is the major moisture source that contributed to the pluvial events, particularly during the deglaciation. Here, we collected a suite of tufa carbonate samples deposited at the 2,080 meter terrace ( 135 meters above today's lake level) in the Mono Basin, California, a closed lake basin for the last 130 thousand years (kyr). At Goat Ranch, we discovered white, shiny, laminated botryoidal carbonate coatings on tufa mounds. Most of these coatings present two generations of formation separated by a hiatus, which indicates lake level fluctuations. Using high-precision U-Th dating techniques, we found that the lower layer was formed 14.1-14.4 kyr BP (corresponding to the North Atlantic Bølling warming period). The upper layer of the coating was formed 11.9-12.3 kyr BP (within the Younger Dryas event). We then obtained d18O, d13C, D47 and 17O-excess values for the two carbonate layers. The upper part is characterized by low d18O values, -8 to -12 ‰ VPDB, whereas the lower one has higher d18O values, -5 to -6 ‰ VPDB. Both share similar d13C values ( 1-2‰ VPDB). D47 analysis on the carbonates suggests that both layers were deposited in a water temperature of 9±2 oC (1s, n = 4 and 8, respectively). The two generations of carbonates present 17O-excess of moisture in values of 50±5 (1s, n=4) and 25±5 (1s, n=8) per meg VSMOW-SLAP, respectively. The large difference in 17O-excess of parent meteoric water points to different origins of moisture for the tufa carbonate formations. The high 17O-excess values during YD suggest a moisture source with a low relative humidity, consistent with the conventional view that the moisture

  10. Glacier monitoring and glacier-climate interactions in the tropical Andes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan; Wang, Shanshan; Florêncio de Souza, Sergio; Bremer, Ulisses Franz; Simões, Jefferson Cardia

    2017-08-01

    In this review, we summarized the evolution of glacier monitoring in the tropical Andes during the last few decades, particularly after the development of remote sensing and photogrammetry. Advantages and limitations of glacier mapping, applied so far, in Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are discussed in detail. Glacier parameters such as the equilibrium line altitude, snowline and mass balance were given special attention in understanding the complex cryosphere-climate interactions, particularly using remote sensing techniques. Glaciers in the inner and the outer tropics were considered separately based on the precipitation and temperature conditions within a new framework. The applicability of various methods to use glacier records to understand and reconstruct the tropical Andean climate between the Last Glacial Maximum (11,700 years ago) and the present is also explored in this paper. Results from various studies published recently were analyzed and we tried to understand the differences in the magnitudes of glacier responses towards the climatic perturbations in the inner tropics and the outer tropics. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those in Venezuela and Colombia near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increase in temperature. Surface energy balance experiments show that outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. We also analyzed the gradients in glacier response to climate change from the Pacific coast towards the Amazon Basin as well as with the elevation. Based on the current trends synthesised from recent studies, it is hypothesized that the glaciers in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics will disappear first as a response to global warming whereas glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show resistance to warming trends due to

  11. Large scale atmospheric tropical circulation changes and consequences during global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gastineau, G.

    2008-01-01

    The changes of the tropical large scale circulation during climate change can have large impacts on human activities. In a first part, the meridional atmospheric tropical circulation was studied in the different coupled models. During climate change, we find, on the one hand, that the Hadley meridional circulation and the subtropical jet are significantly shifted poleward, and on the other hand, that the intensity of the tropical circulation weakens. The slow down of the atmospheric circulation results from the dry static stability changes affecting the tropical troposphere. Secondly, idealized simulations are used to explain the tropical circulation changes. Ensemble simulation using the model LMDZ4 are set up to study the results from the coupled model IPSLCM4. The weakening of the large scale tropical circulation and the poleward shift of the Hadley cells are explained by both the uniform change and the meridional gradient change of the sea surface temperature. Then, we used the atmospheric model LMDZ4 in an aqua-planet configuration. The Hadley circulation changes are explained in a simple framework by the required poleward energy transport. In a last part, we focus on the water vapor distribution and feedback in the climate models. The Hadley circulation changes were shown to have a significant impact on the water vapour feedback during climate change. (author)

  12. Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

    2018-01-01

    Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

  13. A Late Holocene Record of Human Impact in the Tropical Lowlands of the Mexican Gulf Coast: Lago Verde.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socorro, L.; Sosa, S.; Caballero, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Ortega, B.

    2005-05-01

    Lago Verde is a maar lake (18 36 43 N; 95 20 52 W) located on the Gulf Coast of Mexico in "Los Tuxtlas" region. The area was cover by tropical rain forest and is part of the core area of the earliest Mesoamerican cultures. A 6 m sediment core was obtained in order to document vegetation and lake level history of this area. Lago Verde is a shallow, eutrophic lake (max. 4 m), the natural vegetation has been removed and grasslands with some tropical trees such Bursera grows around the lake. According with the radiocarbon chronology the sequence covers the last 2500 yr BP. At the base of the sequence low abundance of tropical trees is record, with intermediate lake levels. A sudden change in the pollen stratigraphy occurs at ca. 2000 yr BP, with important presence of Poaceae, Ambrosia and Cheno.-Am. along with Zea mays indicating human activity in the area. This is associated with a change in limnological conditions, recording turbid, shallow environments. This pollen signals correlates with dry phases in Yucatan, suggesting that this dry climatic signal probably had effect on an ample area of Mexico. However, at 1200 yr BP, no more Zea mays pollen is recovered suggesting the abandonment of the area. Lake levels recover as well as the tropical forest. The last 150 yr BP is characterized by the reduction in the pollen of tropical forest trees, presence of Zea mays, increased erosion rates, turbidity and eutrophication in the lake, all related to deforestation.

  14. Has climate change disrupted stratification patterns in Lake Victoria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Has climate change disrupted stratification patterns in Lake Victoria, East Africa? ... Climate change may threaten the fisheries of Lake Victoria by increasing density differentials in the water column, thereby strengthening stratification and increasing the ... Keywords: deoxygenation, fisheries, global warming, thermocline

  15. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydroelectric Reservoirs in Tropical Regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinguelli Rosa, L.; Aurelio dos Santos, M.; Oliveira dos Santos, E.; Matvienko, B.; Sikar, E.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses emissions by power-dams in the tropics. Greenhouse gas emissions from tropical power-dams are produced underwater through biomass decomposition by bacteria. The gases produced in these dams are mainly nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane. A methodology was established for measuring greenhouse gases emitted by various power-dams in Brazil. Experimental measurements of gas emissions by dams were made to determine accurately their emissions of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) gases through bubbles formed on the lake bottom by decomposing organic matter, as well as rising up the lake gradient by molecular diffusion. The main source of gas in power-dams reservoirs is the bacterial decomposition (aerobic and anaerobic) of autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter that basically produces CO2 and CH4. The types and modes of gas production and release in the tropics are reviewed

  16. Diatom assemblage in a tropical lake of northeastern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Rodrigues do Nascimento

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The composition and spatial variation of diatom assemblage in surface sediments of Caçó Lake (shallow, mesotrophic and weakly acid lake - Maranhão State, Brazil were analyzed in order to know the distribution pattern of the species along the lake during rainy season (April 1999. Four zones were established in the lake based on 21 diatoms species and habitat affinities. The first three zones (prime three meters deep to six meters deep were marked by the occurrence of Pinnularia gigas, Frustulia rhomboides, Encyonopsis krasskei, Eunotia camelus, E. femoriformis and E. monodon. Zone IV (seven to nine meters deep was inhabited mainly by Surirella biseriata and Fragilariforma floridana. During the beginning of the rainy season, the diatom assemblage in Caçó Lake was composed mainly by benthic and epiphytic forms that reflected the low lake levels and the abundance of littoral vegetation present in this lake.Com o objetivo de se conhecer a dinâmica espacial e a distribuição das diatomáceas contidas no sedimento superficial do lago Caçó, durante o período de chuvas (abril de 1999 foram realizadas coletas em um "transect" horizontal. A partir da observação destas coletas efetuadas a cada 1 metro pode-se observar que a distribuição das diatomáceas esteve fortemente ligada a ocorrência do banco de macrófitas da sua margem, com a ocorrência maciça das espécies epifíticas e bentônicas. A análise de agrupamento de dados permitiu uma melhor visualização, da sua distribuição a cada profundidade e também das associações específicas em cada zona. Os resultados deste estudo permitiram concluir que a ocorrência e distribuição das diatomáceas do Lago Caçó está fortemente ligada ao banco de macrófitas localizado em suas margens, definindo assim zonas características dentro do lago.

  17. Terrestrial Water Flux Responses to Global Warming in Tropical Rainforest Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, C. W.; Lo, M. H.; Kumar, S.

    2016-12-01

    Precipitation extremes are expected to become more frequent in the changing global climate, which may considerably affect the terrestrial hydrological cycle. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives have been examined to explore the changes in normalized terrestrial water fluxes (TWFn) (precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus total runoff, divided by the precipitation climatology) in three tropical rainforest areas: Maritime Continent, Congo, and Amazon. Results reveal that a higher frequency of intense precipitation events is predicted for the Maritime Continent in the future climate than in the present climate, but not for the Amazon or Congo rainforests. Nonlinear responses to extreme precipitation lead to a reduced groundwater recharge and a proportionately greater amount of direct runoff, particularly for the Maritime Continent, where both the amount and intensity of precipitation increase under global warming. We suggest that the nonlinear response is related to the existence of a higher near-surface soil moisture over the Maritime Continent than that over the Amazon and Congo rainforests. The wetter soil over the Maritime Continent also leads to an increased subsurface runoff. Thus, increased precipitation extremes and concomitantly reduced terrestrial water fluxes (TWF) lead to an intensified hydrological cycle for the Maritime Continent. This has the potential to result in a strong temporal heterogeneity in soil water distribution affecting the ecosystem of the rainforest region and increasing the risk of flooding and/or landslides.

  18. Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

    2014-01-01

    Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to

  19. Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

    2018-04-01

    Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

  20. Relation between century-scale Holocene arid intervals in tropical and temperate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, H. F.; Gasse, F.; Benkaddour, A.; El Hamouti, N.; van der Kaars, S.; Perkins, W. T.; Pearce, N. J.; Roberts, C. N.

    1995-01-01

    CLIMATE records from lake sediments in tropical Africa, Central America and west Asia show several century-scale arid intervals during the Holocene1-10. These may have been caused by temporary weakening of the monsoonal circulation associated with reduced northward heat transport by the oceans7 or by feedback processes stimulated by changes in tropical land-surface conditions10. Here we use a lake-sediment record from the montane Mediterranean zone of Morocco to address the question of whether these events were also felt in temperate continental regions. We find evidence of arid intervals of similar duration, periodicity and possibly timing to those in the tropics. But our pollen data show that the forest vegetation was not substantially affected by these events, indicating that precipitation remained adequate during the summer growing season. Thus, the depletion of the groundwater aquifer that imprinted the dry events in the lake record must have resulted from reduced winter precipitation. We suggest that the occurrence of arid events during the summer in the tropics but during the winter at temperate latitudes can be rationalized if they are both associated with cooler sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.

  1. Quantifying the Variability of CH4 Emissions from Pan-Arctic Lakes with Lake Biogeochemical and Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies in the arctic and subarctic show that CH4 emissions from pan-arctic lakes are playing much more significant roles in the regional carbon cycling than previously estimated. Permafrost thawing due to pronounced warming at northern high latitudes affects lake morphology, changing its CH4 emissions. Thermokarst can enlarge the extent of artic lakes, exposing stable ancient carbon buried in the permafrost zone for degradation and changing a previously known carbon sink to a large carbon source. In some areas, the thawing of subarctic discontinuous and isolated permafrost can diminish thermokarst lakes. To date, few models have considered these important hydrological and biogeochemical processes to provide adequate estimation of CH4 emissions from these lakes. To fill this gap, we have developed a process-based climate-sensitive lake biogeochemical model and a landscape evolution model, which have been applied to quantify the state and variability of CH4 emissions from this freshwater system. Site-level experiments show the models are capable to capture the spatial and temporal variability of CH4 emissions from lakes across Siberia and Alaska. With the lake biogeochemical model solely, we estimate that the magnitude of CH4 emissions from lakes is 13.2 Tg yr-1 in the north of 60 ºN at present, which is on the same order of CH4 emissions from northern high-latitude wetlands. The maximum increment is 11.8 Tg CH4 yr-1 by the end of the 21st century when the worst warming scenario is assumed. We expect the landscape evolution model will improve the existing estimates.

  2. Epiphytic Diatoms along Environmental Gradients in Western European Shallow Lakes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blanco, Saul; Cejudo-Figueiras, Cristina; Alvarez-Blanco, Irene; van Donk, Ellen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/069838593; Gross, Elisabeth M.; Hansson, Lars-Anders; Irvine, Kenneth; Jeppesen, Erik; Kairesalo, Timo; Moss, Brian; Noges, Tiina; Becares, Eloy

    Diatom-based assays have been successfully associated worldwide with the tropic status of lakes. Several studies have demonstrated a correlation between epiphytic diatoms and nutrient load in shallow lakes and wetlands. We examine the relative importance of environmental factors in explaining the

  3. An application of a water assessment and simulation model in the remediation of the eutrophication capacity of a tropical water system: Case study the Lake Obili in Yaounde (Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajeagah Gideon A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lake Obili is one of the most famous lakes in the city of Yaounde, Cameroon. Studies carried out in this lake showed that it was hyper eutrophic and therefore it represents a great danger because it is used for aquaculture, tourism and a suitable laboratory for hydro-biological engineering. It is thus very vital to restore this lake ecosystem that singles itself in the heart of the city of Yaounde. This can be greatly facilitated through the use of Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP of the United State Environmental protection Agency (USEPA. The outcomes of the previous results obtained from EUTRO, a Subroutine of the WASP model specialised in determining eutrophication level have proven that the remediation of this lake can be achievable through the implementation of a wet dredging, the construction and restoration of a wastewater treatment plant, the implementation of environmental incentive policies and the arrangement of the access to the lake. The application of the model is a contribution to the scientific mastery of nutrient flow, lake functioning and possibilities of restauration of highly polluted tropical water bodies subjected to domestic and industrial pollution.

  4. Snowmelt Timing as a Determinant of Lake Inflow Mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, D. C.; Forrest, A. L.; Sahoo, G. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schladow, S. G.

    2018-02-01

    Snowmelt is a significant source of carbon, nutrient, and sediment loads to many mountain lakes. The mixing conditions of snowmelt inflows, which are heavily dependent on the interplay between snowmelt and lake thermal regime, dictate the fate of these loads within lakes and their ultimate impact on lake ecosystems. We use five decades of data from Lake Tahoe, a 600 year residence-time lake where snowmelt has little influence on lake temperature, to characterize the snowmelt mixing response to a range of climate conditions. Using stream discharge and lake profile data (1968-2017), we find that the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake prior to the onset of stratification increases as annual snowpack decreases, ranging from about 50% in heavy-snow years to close to 90% in warm, dry years. Accordingly, in 8 recent years (2010-2017) where hourly inflow buoyancy and discharge could be quantified, we find that decreased snowpack similarly increases the proportion of annual snowmelt entering the lake at weak to positive buoyancy. These responses are due to the stronger effect of winter precipitation conditions on streamflow timing and temperature than on lake stratification, and point toward increased nearshore and near-surface mixing of inflows in low-snowpack years. The response of inflow mixing conditions to snowpack is apparent when isolating temperature effects on snowpack. Snowpack levels are decreasing due to warming temperatures during winter precipitation. Thus, our findings suggest that climate change may lead to increased deposition of inflow loads in the ecologically dynamic littoral zone of high-residence time, snowmelt-fed lakes.

  5. Invasive floating macrophytes reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a small tropical lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attermeyer, K; Flury, S; Jayakumar, R; Fiener, P; Steger, K; Arya, V; Wilken, F; van Geldern, R; Premke, K

    2016-02-05

    Floating macrophytes, including water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), are dominant invasive organisms in tropical aquatic systems, and they may play an important role in modifying the gas exchange between water and the atmosphere. However, these systems are underrepresented in global datasets of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated the carbon (C) turnover and GHG emissions from a small (0.6 km(2)) water-harvesting lake in South India and analysed the effect of floating macrophytes on these emissions. We measured carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions with gas chambers in the field as well as water C mineralization rates and physicochemical variables in both the open water and in water within stands of water hyacinths. The CO2 and CH4 emissions from areas covered by water hyacinths were reduced by 57% compared with that of open water. However, the C mineralization rates were not significantly different in the water between the two areas. We conclude that the increased invasion of water hyacinths and other floating macrophytes has the potential to change GHG emissions, a process that might be relevant in regional C budgets.

  6. Invasive floating macrophytes reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a small tropical lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attermeyer, K.; Flury, S.; Jayakumar, R.; Fiener, P.; Steger, K.; Arya, V.; Wilken, F.; van Geldern, R.; Premke, K.

    2016-02-01

    Floating macrophytes, including water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), are dominant invasive organisms in tropical aquatic systems, and they may play an important role in modifying the gas exchange between water and the atmosphere. However, these systems are underrepresented in global datasets of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated the carbon (C) turnover and GHG emissions from a small (0.6 km2) water-harvesting lake in South India and analysed the effect of floating macrophytes on these emissions. We measured carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions with gas chambers in the field as well as water C mineralization rates and physicochemical variables in both the open water and in water within stands of water hyacinths. The CO2 and CH4 emissions from areas covered by water hyacinths were reduced by 57% compared with that of open water. However, the C mineralization rates were not significantly different in the water between the two areas. We conclude that the increased invasion of water hyacinths and other floating macrophytes has the potential to change GHG emissions, a process that might be relevant in regional C budgets.

  7. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  8. Climate-related differences in the dominance of submerged macrophytes in shallow lakes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kosten, S.; Kamarainen, A.; Jeppesen, E.; Nes, van E.H.; Peeters, E.T.H.M.; Lacerot, G.; Scheffer, M.

    2009-01-01

    It has been suggested that shallow lakes in warm climates have a higher probability of being turbid, rather than macrophyte dominated, compared with lakes in cooler climates, but little field evidence exists to evaluate this hypothesis. We analyzed data from 782 lake years in different climate zones

  9. Night ventilation at courtyard housing estate in warm humid tropic for sustainable environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defiana, Ima; Teddy Badai Samodra, FX; Setyawan, Wahyu

    2018-03-01

    The problem in the night-time for warm humid tropic housing estate is thermal discomfort. Heat gains accumulation from building envelope, internal heat gains and activities of occupants influence indoor thermal comfort. Ventilation is needed for transfer or removes heat gains accumulation to outdoor. This study describes the role of an inner courtyard to promote pressure difference. Pressure difference as a wind driven force to promote wind velocity thereby could transfer indoor heat gains accumulation to outdoor of building. A simulation used as the research method for prediction wind velocity. Purposive sampling used as the method to choose building sample with similar inner courtyards. The field survey was conducted to obtain data of inner courtyard typologies and two housing were used as model simulation. Furthermore, the simulation is running in steady state mode, at 05.00 pm when the occupants usually close window. But the window should be opened in the night-time to transfer indoor heat gain to outdoor. The result shows that the factor influencing physiological cooling as consequences of inner courtyard are height to width ratio, the distance between inner courtyard to windward, window configuration and the inner courtyard design-the proportion between the length, the width, and the height.

  10. Environmental changes in the Tule Lake basin, Siskiyou and Modoc Counties, California, from 3 to 2 million years before present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, David P.; Bradbury, J. Platt; Rieck, Hugh J.; Sarna-Wojcicki, Andrei M.

    1990-01-01

    Pollen and diatom analyses of a core from the town of Tulelake, Siskiyou County, California, for the period between 3 and 2 Ma reveal a paleoclimatic and paleolimnologic sequence recording a long, warm time interval that lasted from about 2.9 to 2.6 Ma and had a short, cooler interval within it. During this warm interval, the regional vegetation surrounding ancient Tule Lake was a mixed coniferous forest, and Tule Lake was a warm monomictic lake. Approximate modern analogs for this Pliocene fossil record at Tulelake are found at least 2 degrees farther south. The Tulelake warm interval appears to have correlatives in the North Atlantic oxygen isotope record and in the pollen record of the Reuverian in the Netherlands. An interval beginning at about 2.4 Ma was characterized at Tule Lake by slow sedimentation, by changes in the relative amounts of algae in the lake, and by an increase in the maximum percentages of Artemisia pollen.

  11. Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

    2010-05-01

    The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

  12. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, W.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Wittenberg, A.

    2009-08-01

    The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño) while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

  13. On the impact of the resolution on the surface and subsurface Eastern Tropical Atlantic warm bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Rey, Marta; Lazar, Alban

    2016-04-01

    The tropical variability has a great importance for the climate of adjacent areas. Its sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) affect in particular the Brazilian Nordeste and the Sahelian region, as well as the tropical Pacific or the Euro-Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the state-of the art climate models exhibits very large systematic errors in reproducing the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the equatorial and coastal Africa upwelling zones (up to several °C for SST). Theses biases exist already, in smaller proportions though, in forced ocean models (several 1/10th of °C), and affect not only the mixed layer but also the whole thermocline. Here, we present an analysis of the impact of horizontal and vertical resolution changes on these biases. Three different DRAKKAR NEMO OGCM simulations have been analysed, associated to the same forcing set (DFS4.4) with different grid resolutions: "REF" for reference (1/4°, 46 vertical levels), "HH" with a finer horizontal grid (1/12°, 46 v.l.) and "HV" with a finer vertical grid (1/4°, 75 v.l.). At the surface, a more realistic seasonal SST cycle is produced in HH in the three upwellings, where the warm bias decreases (by 10% - 20%) during boreal spring and summer. A notable result is that increasing vertical resolution in HV causes a shift (in advance) of the upwelling SST seasonal cycles. In order to better understand these results, we estimate the three upwelling subsurface temperature errors, using various in-situ datasets, and provide thus a three-dimensional view of the biases.

  14. Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

  15. The dynamic of organic carbon in South Cameroon. Fluxes in a tropical river system and a lake system as a varying sink on a glacial-interglacial time scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giresse, P. [Laboratoire de Sedimentologie et Geochimie Marines, URA CNRS 715, Universite de Perpignan, 66860 Perpignan (France); Maley, J. [Paleoenvironnements et Palynologie, ISEM/CNRS, UMR 5554, ORSTOM, UR 12, Universite de Montpellier II, 34095 Montpellier (France)

    1998-05-01

    In the first attempt to estimate both (i) a bulk carbon flux in a tropical river system (mainly Sanaga River) and (ii) their palaeoenvironmental implications from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, this study presents a synthetic approach based on the combined use of modern evaluation of fluxes and estuarine biodegradation in the tropical river system Sanaga and nearby Douala Bay rivers, and of sedimentation rates of a well studied marine shelf and lake system (Barombi-Mbo). In the lake Barombi-Mbo, the Holocene transfer of particulate carbon (96.6x10{sup 3} t) is very close to the mass fixed presently in soil catchments (117x10{sup 3} t). A complete process of stored carbon consumption would require some 10{sup 4} years, namely the Holocene period. During the last 20,000 years, variations in the sediment organic matter can be explained by the change of the vegetation cover, particularly with the substitution of open environments by forests. The global sedimentation was slow between ca. 18,000 and 10,000 years BP and increased after 12,000 years. But the carbon sedimentation rate remains fairly constant as the carbon content is higher in the LGM deposits. Such LGM carbon concentrations are probably explained by the input of coarse debris by rough floods and by a less degraded organic matter as a result of the cooling of the climate. Today, the total transport of dissolved and particulate organic carbon of the Sanaga and Douala Bay rivers to the Guinea Gulf is estimated as 0.62 to 0.79x10{sup 6} t C yr{sup -1}. Based on 50% biodegradation at the estuarine interface, the loss of organic matter per unit of land is evaluated around 8.8 t C km{sup -2} yr{sup -1}. Marine oceanic records of the carbon sedimentation rate reflect with difficulty the major palaeoenvironmental changes according to interfering hydrodynamic factors. The greatest input of organic carbon during warm marine biozones would be balanced by higher concentrations during the LGM resulting in

  16. Refuge Lake Reclassification in 620 Minnesota Cisco Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Cisco (Coregonus artedi is the most common coldwater stenothermal fish in Minnesota lakes. Water temperature (T and dissolved oxygen (DO in lakes are important controls of fish growth and reproduction and likely change with future climate warming. Built upon a previous study, this study uses a modified method to identify which of 620 cisco lakes in Minnesota can still support cisco populations under future climate and therefore be classified as cisco refuge lakes. The previous study used oxythermal stress parameter TDO3, the temperature at DO of 3 mg/L, simulated only from deep virtual lakes to classify 620 cisco lakes. Using four categories of virtual but representative cisco lakes in modified method, a one-dimensional water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used to simulate daily T and DO profiles in 82 virtual lakes under the past (1961–2008 and two future climate scenarios. A multiyear average of 31-day largest TDO3 over variable benchmark (VB periods, AvgATDO3VB, was calculated from simulated T and DO profiles using FishHabitat2013. Contour plots of AvgATDO3VB for four categories of virtual lakes were then developed to reclassify 620 cisco lakes into Tier 1 (AvgATDO3VB < 11 °C or Tier 2 refuge lakes, and Tier 3 non-refuge lakes (AvgATDO3VB > 17 °C. About 20% of 620 cisco lakes are projected to be refuge lakes under future climate scenarios, which is a more accurate projection (improving the prediction accuracy by ~6.5% from the previous study since AvgATDO3VB was found to vary by lake categories.

  17. Warming off southwestern Japan linked to distributional shifts of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Kouki; Taino, Seiya; Haraguchi, Hiroko; Prendergast, Gabrielle; Hiraoka, Masanori

    2012-11-01

    To assess distributional shifts of species in response to recent warming, historical distribution records are the most requisite information. The surface seawater temperature (SST) of Kochi Prefecture, southwestern Japan on the western North Pacific, has significantly risen, being warmed by the Kuroshio Current. Past distributional records of subtidal canopy-forming seaweeds (Laminariales and Fucales) exist at about 10-year intervals from the 1970s, along with detailed SST datasets at several sites along Kochi's >700 km coastline. In order to provide a clear picture of distributional shifts of coastal marine organisms in response to warming SST, we observed the present distribution of seaweeds and analyzed the SST datasets to estimate spatiotemporal SST trends in this coastal region. We present a large increase of 0.3°C/decade in the annual mean SST of this area over the past 40 years. Furthermore, a comparison of the previous and present distributions clearly showed the contraction of temperate species' distributional ranges and expansion of tropical species' distributional ranges in the seaweeds. Although the main temperate kelp Ecklonia (Laminariales) had expanded their distribution during periods of cooler SST, they subsequently declined as the SST warmed. Notably, the warmest SST of the 1997-98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event was the most likely cause of a widespread destruction of the kelp populations; no recovery was found even in the present survey at the formerly habitable sites where warm SSTs have been maintained. Temperate Sargassum spp. (Fucales) that dominated widely in the 1970s also declined in accordance with recent warming SSTs. In contrast, the tropical species, S. ilicifolium, has gradually expanded its distribution to become the most conspicuously dominant among the present observations. Thermal gradients, mainly driven by the warming Kuroshio Current, are presented as an explanation for the successive changes in both temperate and

  18. Lake sediment records on climate change and human activities in the Xingyun Lake catchment, SW China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenxiang Zhang

    Full Text Available Sediments from Xinyun Lake in central Yunnan, southwest China, provide a record of environmental history since the Holocene. With the application of multi-proxy indicators (total organic carbon (TOC, total nitrogen (TN, δ13C and δ15N isotopes, C/N ratio, grain size, magnetic susceptibility (MS and CaCO3 content, as well as accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS 14C datings, four major climatic stages during the Holocene have been identified in Xingyun's catchment. A marked increase in lacustrine palaeoproductivity occurred from 11.06 to 9.98 cal. ka BP, which likely resulted from an enhanced Asian southwest monsoon and warm-humid climate. Between 9.98 and 5.93 cal. ka BP, a gradually increased lake level might have reached the optimum water depth, causing a marked decline in coverage by aquatic plants and lake productivity of the lake. This was caused by strong Asian southwest monsoon, and coincided with the global Holocene Optimum. During the period of 5.60-1.35 cal. ka BP, it resulted in a warm and dry climate at this stage, which is comparable to the aridification of India during the mid- and late Holocene. The intensifying human activity and land-use in the lake catchment since the early Tang Dynasty (∼1.35 cal. ka BP were associated with the ancient Dian culture within Xingyun's catchment. The extensive deforestation and development of agriculture in the lake catchment caused heavy soil loss. Our study clearly shows that long-term human activities and land-use change have strongly impacted the evolution of the lake environment and therefore modulated the sediment records of the regional climate in central Yunnan for more than one thousand years.

  19. Lake sediment records on climate change and human activities in the Xingyun Lake catchment, SW China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenxiang; Ming, Qingzhong; Shi, Zhengtao; Chen, Guangjie; Niu, Jie; Lei, Guoliang; Chang, Fengqin; Zhang, Hucai

    2014-01-01

    Sediments from Xinyun Lake in central Yunnan, southwest China, provide a record of environmental history since the Holocene. With the application of multi-proxy indicators (total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ13C and δ15N isotopes, C/N ratio, grain size, magnetic susceptibility (MS) and CaCO3 content), as well as accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C datings, four major climatic stages during the Holocene have been identified in Xingyun's catchment. A marked increase in lacustrine palaeoproductivity occurred from 11.06 to 9.98 cal. ka BP, which likely resulted from an enhanced Asian southwest monsoon and warm-humid climate. Between 9.98 and 5.93 cal. ka BP, a gradually increased lake level might have reached the optimum water depth, causing a marked decline in coverage by aquatic plants and lake productivity of the lake. This was caused by strong Asian southwest monsoon, and coincided with the global Holocene Optimum. During the period of 5.60-1.35 cal. ka BP, it resulted in a warm and dry climate at this stage, which is comparable to the aridification of India during the mid- and late Holocene. The intensifying human activity and land-use in the lake catchment since the early Tang Dynasty (∼1.35 cal. ka BP) were associated with the ancient Dian culture within Xingyun's catchment. The extensive deforestation and development of agriculture in the lake catchment caused heavy soil loss. Our study clearly shows that long-term human activities and land-use change have strongly impacted the evolution of the lake environment and therefore modulated the sediment records of the regional climate in central Yunnan for more than one thousand years.

  20. Interaction of clouds, radiation, and the tropical warm pool sea surface temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, N.; Zhang, G.J.; Barnett, T.P.; Ramanathan, V. [Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    The primary focus of this study is the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP). In this study, we combine in-situ observations Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere [TOGA]-Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment [COARE] and Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment [CEPEX] with satellite cloud data.

  1. A cosmogenic 10Be chronology for the local last glacial maximum and termination in the Cordillera Oriental, southern Peruvian Andes: Implications for the tropical role in global climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromley, Gordon R. M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Hall, Brenda L.; Rademaker, Kurt M.; Putnam, Aaron E.; Todd, Claire E.; Hegland, Matthew; Winckler, Gisela; Jackson, Margaret S.; Strand, Peter D.

    2016-09-01

    Resolving patterns of tropical climate variability during and since the last glacial maximum (LGM) is fundamental to assessing the role of the tropics in global change, both on ice-age and sub-millennial timescales. Here, we present a10Be moraine chronology from the Cordillera Carabaya (14.3°S), a sub-range of the Cordillera Oriental in southern Peru, covering the LGM and the first half of the last glacial termination. Additionally, we recalculate existing 10Be ages using a new tropical high-altitude production rate in order to put our record into broader spatial context. Our results indicate that glaciers deposited a series of moraines during marine isotope stage 2, broadly synchronous with global glacier maxima, but that maximum glacier extent may have occurred prior to stage 2. Thereafter, atmospheric warming drove widespread deglaciation of the Cordillera Carabaya. A subsequent glacier resurgence culminated at ∼16,100 yrs, followed by a second period of glacier recession. Together, the observed deglaciation corresponds to Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1: ∼18,000-14,600 yrs), during which pluvial lakes on the adjacent Peruvian-Bolivian altiplano rose to their highest levels of the late Pleistocene as a consequence of southward displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone and intensification of the South American summer monsoon. Deglaciation in the Cordillera Carabaya also coincided with the retreat of higher-latitude mountain glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere. Our findings suggest that HS1 was characterised by atmospheric warming and indicate that deglaciation of the southern Peruvian Andes was driven by rising temperatures, despite increased precipitation. Recalculated 10Be data from other tropical Andean sites support this model. Finally, we suggest that the broadly uniform response during the LGM and termination of the glaciers examined here involved equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies and propose a framework for testing the viability

  2. Monoterpene ‘thermometer’ of tropical forest-atmosphere response to climate warming

    OpenAIRE

    Jardine, KJ; Jardine, AB; Holm, JA; Lombardozzi, DL; Negron-Juarez, RI; Martin, ST; Beller, HR; Gimenez, BO; Higuchi, N; Chambers, JQ

    2017-01-01

    © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Tropical forests absorb large amounts of atmospheric CO 2 through photosynthesis but elevated temperatures suppress this absorption and promote monoterpene emissions. Using 13 CO 2 labeling, here we show that monoterpene emissions from tropical leaves derive from recent photosynthesis and demonstrate distinct temperature optima for five groups (Groups 1–5), potentially corresponding to different enzymatic temperature-dependent reaction mechanisms within β-ocimen...

  3. Water level changes of high altitude lakes in Himalaya–Karakoram ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2Department of Geology, University of Pune, Pune 411 007, India. 3Chhattisgarh Council of .... influenced by three climate patterns as categorized by precipitation regime: (1) ... Water level changes of high altitude lakes in Himalaya–Karakoram. 1535 ...... mate warming and growth of high elevation inland lakes on the ...

  4. Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieling, Joost; Gebhardt, Holger; Huber, Matthew; Adekeye, Olabisi A; Akande, Samuel O; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J; Schouten, Stefan; Sluijs, Appy

    2017-03-01

    Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C-near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy [Formula: see text], latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and [Formula: see text] indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

  5. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  6. Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Anderson

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The role of the penetration length scale of shortwave radiation into the surface ocean and its impact on tropical Pacific variability is investigated with a fully coupled ocean, atmosphere, land and ice model. Previous work has shown that removal of all ocean color results in a system that tends strongly towards an El Niño state. Results from a suite of surface chlorophyll perturbation experiments show that the mean state and variability of the tropical Pacific is highly sensitive to the concentration and distribution of ocean chlorophyll. Setting the near-oligotrophic regions to contain optically pure water warms the mean state and suppresses variability in the western tropical Pacific. Doing the same above the shadow zones of the tropical Pacific also warms the mean state but enhances the variability. It is shown that increasing penetration can both deepen the pycnocline (which tends to damp El Niño while shifting the mean circulation so that the wind response to temperature changes is altered. Depending on what region is involved this change in the wind stress can either strengthen or weaken ENSO variability.

  7. Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraro, Angus J; Highwood, Eleanor J; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Geoengineering by injection of reflective aerosols into the stratosphere has been proposed as a way to counteract the warming effect of greenhouse gases by reducing the intensity of solar radiation reaching the surface. Here, climate model simulations are used to examine the effect of geoengineering on the tropical overturning circulation. The strength of the circulation is related to the atmospheric static stability and has implications for tropical rainfall. The tropical circulation is projected to weaken under anthropogenic global warming. Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosol does not mitigate this weakening of the circulation. This response is due to a fast adjustment of the troposphere to radiative heating from the aerosol layer. This effect is not captured when geoengineering is modelled as a reduction in total solar irradiance, suggesting caution is required when interpreting model results from solar dimming experiments as analogues for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. (letter)

  8. Assessment of pathogenic bacteria in water and sediment from a water reservoir under tropical conditions (Lake Ma Vallée), Kinshasa Democratic Republic of Congo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwanamoki, Paola M; Devarajan, Naresh; Thevenon, Florian; Atibu, Emmanuel K; Tshibanda, Joseph B; Ngelinkoto, Patience; Mpiana, Pius T; Prabakar, Kandasamy; Mubedi, Josué I; Kabele, Christophe G; Wildi, Walter; Poté, John

    2014-10-01

    This study was conducted to assess potential human health risks presented by pathogenic bacteria in a protected multi-use lake-reservoir (Lake Ma Vallée) located in west of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Water and surface sediments from several points of the Lake were collected during summer. Microbial analysis was performed for Escherichia coli, Enterococcus (ENT), Pseudomonas species and heterotrophic plate counts. PCR amplification was performed for the confirmation of E. coli, ENT, Pseudomonas spp. and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolated from samples. The results reveal low concentration of bacteria in water column of the lake, the bacterial quantification results observed in this study for the water column were below the recommended limits, according to WHO and the European Directive 2006/7/CE, for bathing water. However, high concentration of bacteria was observed in the sediment samples; the values of 2.65 × 10(3), 6.35 × 10(3), 3.27 × 10(3) and 3.60 × 10(8) CFU g(-1) of dry sediment for E. coli, ENT, Pseudomonas spp. and heterotrophic plate counts, respectively. The results of this study indicate that sediments of the Lake Ma Vallée can constitute a reservoir of pathogenic microorganisms which can persist in the lake. Possible resuspension of faecal indicator bacteria and pathogens would affect water quality and may increase health risks to the population during recreational activities. Our results indicate that the microbial sediment analysis provides complementary and important information for assessing sanitary quality of surface water under tropical conditions.

  9. Summer warming and changes in snow depth is reflected in the growth rings of Alaskan tundra shrubs (Toolik Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchwal, A.; Welker, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic change is being manifested by shifts in the vegetation composition and abundance throughout many regions of the Arctic. These changes are primarily reflected by increases in shrub growth and density, but the extent to which shrub growth is expressed in greater shrub ring width and the degree to which natural and experimental warming correspond and or whether the secondary effect of deeper snow in winter acts to alter shrub ring growh and or shrub biomass is yet to be determined for Arctic Alaska. In order to explore growth response of arctic shrubs to on-going and predicted temperature and snow depth increase we investigated shrubs' annual growth rings using dendrochronological methods applied to plants growing under control and experimental treatments in Toolik Lake, Northern Alaska. Specifically we evaluated the effects of a 20-year experimental warming (due to open top chambers, OTC's) and snow depth increases on the growth rings pattern of two common shrub species of Northern Alaska, i.e. Betula nana and Salix pulchra. By applying a serial sectioning method patterns of annual growth were investigated across the entire plant including below-ground parts. Moreover this procedure allowed for a complete cross-dating and a detection of irregular radial growth, including common missing and partially missing rings. We found that the natural warming in Alaska occurring over the past 20 years is stimulating shrub ring growth, more so for Betula than for Salix. Experimental warming (simulating conditions in approximately 2030) stimulated the secondary growth ratio; however the allocation pattern between below-ground and above-ground is quite variable between individual shrubs. In addition, annual growth rings analyses were supplemented by quantitative wood anatomy properties, such as vessel size and density. Our findings indicate that there can be differential growth ring responses of deciduous shrubs to natural climate warming, that growth ring increases reflect

  10. Implications of climate change for water resources in the Great Lakes basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clamen, M.

    1990-01-01

    Several authors have suggested the following impacts of global warming for the Great Lakes region. The average annual warming is predicted by one model to be ca 4.5 degree C, slightly more in winter and slightly less in summer. Annual precipitation is projected to increase by ca 8% for points in the central and western basin, but to decrease by 3-6% for the eastern basin. Basin snowpack could be reduced by up to 100% and the snow season shortened by 2-4 weeks, resulting in a reduction of more than 50% in available soil moisture. Buoyancy-driven turnovers of the water column on four of the six lakes may not occur at all. Presently the phenomena occurs twice per year on all the lakes. Ice formation would be greatly reduced. Maximum ice cover may decline from 72-0% for Lake Superior, 38-0% for Lake Michigan, 65-0% for Lake Huron, 90-50% for Lake Erie and 33-0% for Lake Ontario. Net basin supplies would be reduced probably in the range 15-25% below the current mean value. Possible responses include integrated studies and research, better and continually updated information, assessment of public policies in the U.S. and Canada, enhanced private planning efforts, and increased global cooperation

  11. Cogs in the endless machine: Lakes, climate change and nutrient cycles: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Brian, E-mail: brmoss@liverpool.ac.uk

    2012-09-15

    Lakes have, rather grandly, been described as sentinels, integrators and regulators of climate change (). Lakes are also part of the continuum of the water cycle, cogs in a machine that processes water and elements dissolved and suspended in myriad forms. Assessing the changes in the functioning of the cogs and the machine with respect to these substances as climate changes is clearly important, but difficult. Many other human-induced influences, not least eutrophication, that impact on catchment areas and consequently on lakes, have generally complicated the recording of recent change in sediment records and modern sets of data. The least confounded evidence comes from remote lakes in mountain and polar regions and suggests effects of warming that include mobilisation of ions and increased amounts of phosphorus. A cottage industry has arisen in deduction and prediction of the future effects of climate change on lakes, but the results are very general and precision is marred not only by confounding influences but by the complexity of the lake system and the infinite variety of possible future scenarios. A common conclusion, however, is that warming will increase the intensity of symptoms of eutrophication. Direct experimentation, though expensive and still unusual and confined to shallow lake and wetland systems is perhaps the most reliable approach. Results suggest increased symptoms of eutrophication, and changes in ecosystem structure, but in some respects are different from those deduced from comparisons along latitudinal gradients or by inference from knowledge of lake behaviour. Experiments have shown marked increases in community respiration compared with gross photosynthesis in mesocosm systems and it may be that the most significant churnings of these cogs in the earth-air-water machine will be in their influence on the carbon cycle, with possibly large positive feedback effects on warming. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Climate change has had

  12. Planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope analysis by ion microprobe technique suggests warm tropical sea surface temperatures during the Early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozdon, Reinhard; Kelly, D. Clay; Kita, Noriko T.; Fournelle, John H.; Valley, John W.

    2011-09-01

    Cool tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are reported for warm Paleogene greenhouse climates based on the δ18O of planktonic foraminiferal tests. These results are difficult to reconcile with models of greenhouse gas-forced climate. It has been suggested that this "cool tropics paradox" arises from postdepositional alteration of foraminiferal calcite, yielding erroneously high δ18O values. Recrystallization of foraminiferal tests is cryptic and difficult to quantify, and the compilation of robust δ18O records from moderately altered material remains challenging. Scanning electron microscopy of planktonic foraminiferal chamber-wall cross sections reveals that the basal area of muricae, pustular outgrowths on the chamber walls of species belonging to the genus Morozovella, contain no mural pores and may be less susceptible to postdepositional alteration. We analyzed the δ18O in muricae bases of morozovellids from the central Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 865) by ion microprobe using 10 μm pits with an analytical reproducibility of ±0.34‰ (2 standard deviations). In situ measurements of δ18O in these domains yield consistently lower values than those published for conventional multispecimen analyses. Assuming that the original δ18O is largely preserved in the basal areas of muricae, this new δ18O record indicates Early Paleogene (˜49-56 Ma) tropical SSTs in the central Pacific were 4°-8°C higher than inferred from the previously published δ18O record and that SSTs reached at least ˜33°C during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. This study demonstrates the utility of ion microprobe analysis for generating more reliable paleoclimate records from moderately altered foraminiferal tests preserved in deep-sea sediments.

  13. The predominance of young carbon in Arctic whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions and implications for Boreal yedoma lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elder, C.; Xu, X.; Walker, J. C.; Walter Anthony, K. M.; Pohlman, J.; Arp, C. D.; Townsend-Small, A.; Hinkel, K. M.; Czimczik, C. I.

    2017-12-01

    Lakes in Arctic and Boreal regions are hotspots for atmospheric exchange of the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4. Thermokarst lakes are a subset of these Northern lakes that may further accelerate climate warming by mobilizing ancient permafrost C (> 11,500 years old) that has been disconnected from the active C cycle for millennia. Northern lakes are thus potentially powerful agents of the permafrost C-climate feedback. While they are critical for projecting the magnitude and timing these feedbacks from the rapidly warming circumpolar region, we lack datasets capturing the diversity of northern lakes, especially regarding their CH4contributions to whole-lake C emissions and their ability to access and mobilize ancient C. We measured the radiocarbon (14C) ages of CH4 and CO2 emitted from 60 understudied lakes and ponds in Arctic and Boreal Alaska during winter and summer to estimate the ages of the C sources yielding these gases. Integrated mean ages for whole-lake emissions were inferred from the 14C-age of dissolved gases sampled beneath seasonal ice. Additionally, we measured concentrations and 14C values of gases emitted by ebullition and diffusion in summer to apportion C emission pathways. Using a multi-sourced mass balance approach, we found that whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions were predominantly sourced from relatively young C in most lakes. In Arctic lakes, CH4 originated from 850 14C-year old C on average, whereas dissolved CO2 was sourced from 400 14C-year old C, and represented 99% of total dissolved C flux. Although ancient C had a minimal influence (11% of total emissions), we discovered that lakes in finer-textured aeolian deposits (Yedoma) emitted twice as much ancient C as lakes in sandy regions. In Boreal, yedoma-type lakes, CH4 and CO2 were fueled by significantly older sources, and mass balance results estimated CH4-ebullition to comprise 50-60% of whole-lake CH4 emissions. The mean 14C-age of Boreal emissions was 6,000 14C-years for CH4-C, and 2

  14. Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

    2017-12-01

    Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

  15. New recommendations for building in tropical climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waal, H.B. de (ISOVER BV, Cappelle a/d IJssel (Netherlands))

    1993-07-01

    Traditional recommendations for building a thermally efficient or comfortable building in a tropical climate are briefly summarized. They suffer from three main drawbacks; they are not quantitative, partly incorrect and only for two climates; the hot dry and the warm humid. A new climate classification, made up of forty tropical climates is presented. Eight building elements, which affect the thermal system of a building, are distinguished. The method by which the new recommendations are derived, is discussed. The new recommendations are briefly presented. (Author)

  16. Lake seasonality across the Tibetan Plateau and their varying relationship with regional mass changes and local hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Sheng, Yongwei; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Yi, Shuang; Bird, Broxton W.; Zhang, Xiaowen; Zhu, La; Zhang, Guoqing

    2017-01-01

    The recent growth and deepening of inland lakes in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) may be a salient indicator of the consequences of climate change. The seasonal dynamics of these lakes is poorly understood despite this being potentially crucial for disentangling contributions from glacier melt and precipitation, which are all sensitive to climate, to lake water budget. Using in situ observations, satellite altimetry and gravimetry data, we identified two patterns of lake level seasonality. In the central, northern, and northeastern TP, lake levels are characterized by considerable increases during warm seasons and decreases during cold seasons, which is consistent with regional mass changes related to monsoon precipitation and evaporation. In the northwestern TP, however, lake levels exhibit dramatic increases during both warm and cold seasons, which deviate from regional mass changes. This appears to be more connected with high spring snowfall and large summer glacier melt. The variable lake level response to different drivers indicates heterogeneous sensitivity to climate change between the northwestern TP and other regions.

  17. 46 CFR 180.207 - Survival craft-vessels operating on lakes, bays, and sounds routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Survival craft-vessels operating on lakes, bays, and... Survival Craft § 180.207 Survival craft—vessels operating on lakes, bays, and sounds routes. (a) Except as... warm water is not required to carry survival craft. (d) A vessel certificated to operate on lakes, bays...

  18. Evolution of Interhemispheric Sea-Surface Temperature Contrast in the Tropical Atlantic During Termination I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.

    2001-12-01

    Meteorological and oceanographic studies show that interannual and decadal variability in tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) strongly influences the climates over northeast Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the Central American and Caribbean regions. In this context, it is worthwhile to reconstruct spatial temperature patterns for the longer-term tropical Atlantic SST history. In this study, a high-resolution alkenone-derived SST record from the subtropical eastern South Atlantic (core GeoB 1023-5) is compared with one from the tropical western North Atlantic (core M35003-4). This comparison reveals synchronous SST variations between both near equatorial Atlantic regions during the Heinrich Event 1 (H1) (18-15.5 cal kyr B.P.), but dipole-like SST variations during the Younger Dryas (YD) (13-11.5 cal kyr B.P.). To assess the relationship of SST variations between both regions, we calculated SST differences between cores GeoB 1023-5 and M35003-4, and compared it with the coccolithophorid Florisphaera profunda abundance record from the equatorial eastern Atlantic (core RC24-08) as an indicator of variations in intensity of south-easterly trade winds [McIntyre and Molfino, 1996]. This comparison suggests that synchronous warming in both regions during the H1 can be attributed to a reduced northward heat transport from the warm equatorial Atlantic to the cold high-latitude North Atlantic linked to the slowdown of thermohaline circulation overturning during cold events under full glacial conditions. However, dipole-like SST variations during the YD is probably more associated with strengthened south-easterly trade winds, which led to a strong upwelling-related cooling in the eastern South Atlantic region and concurrently enhanced advection of warm subtropical South Atlantic waters to the tropical western Atlantic during that time. Accordingly, a coupled oceanic-atmospheric process created a warm pool in the tropical western Atlantic and thus a dipole

  19. Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

    2018-03-01

    This study aims to determine the role of the tropical ocean dynamics in the response of the climate to extratropical thermal forcing. We analyse and compare the outcomes of coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with two ocean models of different complexity. In the first configuration the AGCM is coupled with a slab ocean model while in the second a reduced gravity ocean (RGO) model is additionally coupled in the tropical region. We find that the imposition of extratropical thermal forcing (warming in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere with zero global mean) produces, in terms of annual means, a weaker response when the RGO is coupled, thus indicating that the tropical ocean dynamics oppose the incoming remote signal. On the other hand, while the slab ocean coupling does not produce significant changes to the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle, the RGO configuration generates strong warming in the central-eastern basin from April to August balanced by cooling during the rest of the year, strengthening the seasonal cycle in the eastern portion of the basin. We hypothesize that such changes are possible via the dynamical effect that zonal wind stress has on the thermocline depth. We also find that the imposed extratropical pattern affects El Niño-Southern Oscillation, weakening its amplitude and low-frequency behaviour.

  20. Too Warm, Two Poles: Super Interglacial Teleconnections and Possible Dual Pole Ice Sheet Stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham-Grette, J.; Deconto, R. M.; Roychowdhury, R.; de Wet, G.; Keisling, B. A.; Melles, M.; Minyuk, P.

    2017-12-01

    Geologic records of the warm Pliocene and Pleistocene super interglacials from both the Arctic and the Antarctic show us that ice sheets are more vulnerable to subtle polar warming than once thought. The continuous 3.6 million-year old sediment record from Lake El'gygytgyn (Lake E), the largest, deepest unglaciated Arctic lake located in central Chukotka, Russia, contains evidence of the warm forested Pliocene and the transition to changing glacial/interglacial climate cycles including at least 9 super interglacials and numerous other strong interglacials. Most of these super interglacials especially MIS 11 and 31, record conditions warmer than MIS 5e and many occur when global cycles are dominated by apparent 41ka forcing during the transition from the warm Pliocene to stronger G/IG variability. Given community consensus on the reduction of the Greenland Ice sheet (GIS) during MIS5e, we suggest that previous interglacials likely forced even larger reductions in the GIS, perhaps consistent with cosmogenic isotope exposure histories. We can best match MIS 11 and 31 from the Antarctic ANDRILL records when diatomaceous ooze deposition in the past recovered from under the modern Ross Ice Shelf suggests collapse of the WAIS and open water conditions. It is possible that a large number of the other Lake E super interglacials correspond to other intervals of WAIS collapse, within the uncertainly of the ANDRILL chronology. The forcing of super interglacials was not necessarily the result of high atmospheric CO2 but the result of preconditioning during periods of extremely low eccentricity and high obliquity. The challenge is now to incorporate oceanographic models (as suggested in Melles et al. 2012) to gauge ice sheet and ocean circulation sensitivity and timescales to preconditioning. Yet confirmation of past warming driving frequent ice sheet collapse in both hemispheres is clear geologically-based evidence that informs our future. Today, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are

  1. Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  2. Geochemistry of ikaite formation at Mono Lake, California: Implications for the origin of tufa mounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Council, Todd C.; Bennett, Philip C.

    1993-11-01

    The mineral ikaite (CaCO3 ṡ 6H2O), not previously observed in lake environments, precipitates seasonally along the shore of Mono Lake, California, where Ca-HCO3 spring water mixes with cold Na-CO3 lake water. During the winter, cold water temperatures and high concentrations of PO43- and organic carbon inhibit calcite precipitation, allowing the metastable ikaite to form. During the spring warming, however, ikaite decomposes to form calcium carbonate and water, occasionally leaving pseudomorphs of the primary precipitate. The identification of modern ikaite suggests that both Pleistocene and Holocene tufas in the Mono basin originally precipitated as ikaite. This mineral may also form in other lake environments, but rapid recrystallization after warming destroys the physical, chemical, and isotopic evidence of formation, and alters the geochemical record.

  3. ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowland, F. S.

    2010-01-01

    The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

  4. Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.

    2011-01-01

    We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (~60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms.

  5. Basal metabolism in tropical birds: Latitude, altitude, and the 'pace of life'

    OpenAIRE

    Londoño, GA; Chappell, MA; Castañeda, MDR; Jankowski, JE; Robinson, SK

    2015-01-01

    © 2014 The Authors. Life history varies across latitudes, with the 'pace of life' being 'slower' in tropical regions. Because life history is coupled to energy metabolism via allocation tradeoffs and links between performance capacity and energy use, low metabolic intensity is expected in tropical animals. Low metabolism has been reported for lowland tropical birds, but it is unclear if this is due to 'slow' life history or to a warm, stable environment. We measured basal metabolic rates (BMR...

  6. 78 FR 20544 - Proposed Establishment of the Big Valley District-Lake County and Kelsey Bench-Lake County...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-05

    ... Lake warms more slowly than the adjacent land during the day and also holds its heat longer at night... formations are comprised of chert, greywacke, shale, metasedimentary rocks, and metavolcanic rocks thrown... included information on the wind, growing degree days, frost-free days, and precipitation within the...

  7. Local fish extinction in a small tropical lake in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo dos Santos Pompeu

    Full Text Available Lagoa Santa is a shallow permanent lake, located in Belo Horizonte metropolitan region, Brazil. In this study, the loss in fish diversity of the lake over the past 150 years is evaluated. Local extinction of almost 70% of the original fish fauna is described. Probably, the main causes of this richness loss were: obstruction of natural communication with rio das Velhas, non-native species introduction, change in the water level, organic pollution, and elimination of littoral and submerged vegetation.

  8. A Robust Response of Precipitation to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. -M.; Wu, H. -T.; Kim, K. -M.

    2012-01-01

    How precipitation responds to global warming is a major concern to society and a challenge to climate change research. Based on analyses of rainfall probability distribution functions of 14 state-of-the-art climate models, we find a robust, canonical global rainfall response to a triple CO2 warming scenario, featuring 100 250% more heavy rain, 5-10% less moderate rain, and 10-15% more very light or no-rain events. Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy rain events over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, and more dry events over subtropical and tropical land areas. Results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce basic structural changes in global rain systems, increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

  9. Climatic and lacustrine morphometric controls of diatom paleoproductivity in a tropical Andean lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, R.; Hernández, A.; Sáez, A.; Giralt, S.; Prego, R.; Pueyo, J. J.; Moreno, A.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.

    2015-12-01

    The coupling of lake dynamics with catchment biogeochemistry is considered the key element controlling primary production in mountain lakes at time scales of a few decades to millennia, yet little is known on the impacts of the morphometry of lakes throughout their ontogeny. As Lake Chungará (Central Andean Altiplano, northern Chile) experienced long-term lake-level fluctuations that strongly modified its area:volume ratio, it is an ideal system for exploring the relative roles that long-term climatic shifts and lake morphometry play on biosiliceous lacustrine productivity. In this paper, we review previous data on the percent contents of total organic carbon, total inorganic carbon, total nitrogen, total biogenic silica, isotopic composition of organic matter, carbonates, and diatom frustules, as well as data on the abundance of the chlorophycean Botryococcus braunii in this lake for the period 12,400-1300 cal yr BP. We also include new data on organic carbon and biogenic silica mass accumulation rates and the diatom assemblage composition of an offshore core dated using 14C and U/Th. Biosiliceous productivity in Lake Chungará was influenced by shifts in allochthonous nutrient inputs related to variability in precipitation. Humid phases dated at approx. 12,400 to 10,000 and 9600 to 7400 cal yr BP coincide with periods of elevated productivity, whereas decreases in productivity were recorded during arid phases dated at approx. 10,000 to 9600 and 7400 to 3550 cal yr BP (Andean mid-Holocene Aridity Period). However, morphometry-related in-lake controls led to a lack of a linear response of productivity to precipitation variability. During the late Glacial to early Holocene, lowstands facilitated complete water column mixing, prompting episodic massive blooms of a large centric diatom, Cyclostephanos cf. andinus. Thus, moderate productivity could be maintained, regardless of aridity, by this phenomenon of morphometric eutrophy during the early history of the lake

  10. Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

    2016-08-25

    The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

  11. Whiting in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Satellites provide a view from space of changes on the Earth's surface. This series of images from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) aboard the Orbview-2 satellite shows the dramatic change in the color of Lake Michigan during the summer. The bright color that appears in late summer is probably caused by calcium carbonate-chalk-in the water. Lake Michigan always has a lot of calcium carbonate in it because the floor of the lake is limestone. During most of the year the calcium carbonate remains dissolved in the cold water, but at the end of summer the lake warms up, lowering the solubility of calcium carbonate. As a result, the calcium carbonate precipitates out of the water, forming clouds of very small solid particles that appear as bright swirls from above. The phenomenon is appropriately called a whiting event. A similar event occured in 1999, but appears to have started later and subsided earlier. It is also possible that a bloom of the algae Microcystis is responsible for the color change, but unlikely because of Lake Michigan's depth and size. Microcystis blooms have occured in other lakes in the region, however. On the shore of the lake it is possible to see the cities of Chicago, Illinois, and Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Both appear as clusters of gray-brown pixels. Image courtesy the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

  12. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

  13. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  14. Swimming-induced pulmonary edema in a tropical climate: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwek, Wmj; Seah, M; Chow, W

    2017-01-01

    Swimming-induced pulmonary edema (SIPE) occurs during strenuous physical exertion in cold water and has been reported in scuba divers, free-diving competitors, combat swimmers, and triathletes. We describe a case of SIPE in a combat swimmer in warm tropical waters. A 21-year old diver trainee developed dyspnea, chest discomfort and hemoptysis after performing a 2-km sea swim in water temperatures of around 30°C. Over a two-hour period, his oxygen saturations deteriorated. Chest X-ray showed pulmonary edema. He was admitted to the general ward for observation and was given supportive treatment. His symptoms resolved over two days. Repeat CXR was normal. He was reviewed and certified fit to continue with diver training. Much of the earlier literature on SIPE describes the development of symptoms after exposure to temperate waters as one main risk factor. This case highlights the risk of development of SIPE in warm tropical waters. With a low reported incidence of SIPE in warm waters, this condition is likely to be underdiagnosed. There is therefore a need to increase local awareness of SIPE in the medical community. A deliberate effort to collate data on SIPE in our local community will help us to better understand the pathophysiology of SIPE in the context of a tropical climate. Development of SIPE in tropical waters suggests that other risk factors may be predominant. There should be a high index of suspicion when any strenuous in-water activity is conducted so that timely treatment may be instituted.

  15. Spatial co-distribution of neglected tropical diseases in the East African Great Lakes region: revisiting the justification for integrated control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, Archie C. A.; Deville, Marie-Alice; Ndayishimiye, Onésime; Brooker, Simon; Fenwick, Alan

    2010-01-01

    Summary OBJECTIVE To determine spatial patterns of co-endemicity of schistosomiasis mansoni and the soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm in the Great Lakes region of East Africa, to help plan integrated neglected tropical disease programmes in this region. METHOD Parasitological surveys were conducted in Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and Burundi in 28 213 children in 404 schools. Bayesian geostatistical models were used to interpolate prevalence of these infections across the study area. Interpolated prevalence maps were overlaid to determine areas of co-endemicity. RESULTS In the Great Lakes region, prevalence was 18.1% for Schistosoma mansoni, 50.0% for hookworm, 6.8% for A. lumbricoides and 6.8% for T. trichiura. Hookworm infection was ubiquitous, whereas S. mansoni, A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura were highly focal. Most areas were endemic (prevalence ≥10%) or hyperendemic (prevalence ≥50%) for one or more STHs, whereas endemic areas for schistosomiasis mansoni were restricted to foci adjacent large perennial water bodies. CONCLUSION Because of the ubiquity of hookworm, treatment programmes are required for STH throughout the region but efficient schistosomiasis control should only be targeted at limited high-risk areas. Therefore, integration of schistosomiasis with STH control is only indicated in limited foci in East Africa. PMID:20409287

  16. A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, A.P.; Funk, Chris [University of California, Santa Barbara, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    2011-12-15

    Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by {proportional_to}40 longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55 E-140 W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980-2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the 'long-rains' season of March-June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more 'El Nino-like' conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning. (orig.)

  17. Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2004-09-01

    Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

  18. Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

    2013-06-01

    A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

  19. Impacts of Recent Warming and the 2015/2016 El Niño on Tropical Peruvian Ice Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, L. G.; Davis, M. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Beaudon, E.; Porter, S. E.; Kutuzov, S.; Lin, P.-N.; Mikhalenko, V. N.; Mountain, K. R.

    2017-12-01

    Data collected between 1974 and 2016 from snow pits and core samples from two Peruvian ice fields demonstrate the effect of the recent warming over the tropical Andes, augmented by El Niño, on the preservation of the climate record. As the 0°C isotherm is approaching the summit of the Quelccaya ice cap in the Andes of southern Peru (5,670 meters above sea level (masl)), the distinctive seasonal δ18O oscillations in the fresh snow deposited within each thermal year are attenuated at depth due to melting and percolation through the firn. This has become increasingly pronounced over 43 years. In the Andes of northern Peru, the ice field on the col of Nevado Huascarán (6050 masl) has retained its seasonal δ18O variations at depth due to its higher elevation. During the 2015/2016 El Niño, snow on Quelccaya and Huascarán was isotopically (δ18O) enriched and the net sum of accumulation over the previous year (NSA) was below the mean for non-El Niño years, particularly on Quelccaya (up to 64% below the mean) which was more pronounced than the NSA decrease during the comparable 1982/1983 El Niño. Interannual large-scale oceanic and middle to upper-level atmospheric temperatures influence δ18O in precipitation on both ice fields, although the influences are variably affected by strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, especially on Quelccaya. The rate of ice wastage along Quelccaya's margin was dramatically higher during 2015/2016 compared with that of the previous 15 years, suggesting that warming from future El Niños may accelerate mass loss on Peruvian glaciers.

  20. Radiocarbon age-offsets in an arctic lake reveal the long-term response of permafrost carbon to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Pohlman, John W.; Kunz, Michael L.; Wooller, Matthew J.

    2014-01-01

    Continued warming of the Arctic may cause permafrost to thaw and speed the decomposition of large stores of soil organic carbon (OC), thereby accentuating global warming. However, it is unclear if recent warming has raised the current rates of permafrost OC release to anomalous levels or to what extent soil carbon release is sensitive to climate forcing. Here we use a time series of radiocarbon age-offsets (14C) between the bulk lake sediment and plant macrofossils deposited in an arctic lake as an archive for soil and permafrost OC release over the last 14,500 years. The lake traps and archives OC imported from the watershed and allows us to test whether prior warming events stimulated old carbon release and heightened age-offsets. Today, the age-offset (2 ka; thousand of calibrated years before A.D. 1950) and the depositional rate of ancient OC from the watershed into the lake are relatively low and similar to those during the Younger Dryas cold interval (occurring 12.9–11.7 ka). In contrast, age-offsets were higher (3.0–5.0 ka) when summer air temperatures were warmer than present during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (11.7–9.0 ka) and Bølling-Allerød periods (14.5–12.9 ka). During these warm times, permafrost thaw contributed to ancient OC depositional rates that were ~10 times greater than today. Although permafrost OC was vulnerable to climate warming in the past, we suggest surface soil organic horizons and peat are presently limiting summer thaw and carbon release. As a result, the temperature threshold to trigger widespread permafrost OC release is higher than during previous warming events.

  1. Thermal Regime of A Deep Temperate Lake and Its Response to Climate Change: Lake Kuttara, Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhisa A. Chikita

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A deep temperate lake, Lake Kuttara, Hokkaido, Japan (148 m deep at maximum was completely ice-covered every winter in the 20th century. However, ice-free conditions of the lake over winter occurred three times in the 21st century, which is probably due to global warming. In order to understand how thermal regime of the lake responds to climate change, a change in lake mean water temperature from the heat storage change was calculated by integrating observed water temperature over water depths and by numerical calculation of heat budget components based on hydrometeorological data. As a result, a temporal variation of lake mean water temperature from the heat budget calculation was very reasonable to that from the observed water temperature (determination coefficient R2 = 0.969. The lowest lake mean temperature for non-freeze was then evaluated at −1.87 °C, referring to the zero level at 6.80 °C. The 1978–2017 data at a meteorological station near Kuttara indicated that there are significant (less than 5% level long-term trends for air temperature (+0.024 °C/year and wind speed (−0.010 m/s/year. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on freeze-up patterns, a sensitivity analysis was carried out for the calculated lake mean water temperature. It is noted that, after two decades, the lake could be ice-free once per every two years.

  2. Periodic outburst floods from an ice-dammed lake in East Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Hvidberg, Christine S; Campos, Néstor; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

    2017-08-30

    We report evidence of four cycles of outburst floods from Catalina Lake, an ice-dammed lake in East Greenland, identified in satellite imagery between 1966-2016. The lake measures 20-25 km 2 , and lake level drops 130-150 m in each event, corresponding to a water volume of 2.6-3.4 Gt, and a release of potential energy of 10 16  J, among the largest outburst floods reported in historical times. The drainage cycle has shortened systematically, and the lake filling rate has increased over each cycle, suggesting that the drainage pattern is changing due to climate warming with possible implications for environmental conditions in Scoresbysund fjord.

  3. Cogs in the endless machine: lakes, climate change and nutrient cycles: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, Brian

    2012-09-15

    Lakes have, rather grandly, been described as sentinels, integrators and regulators of climate change (Williamson et al., Limnol. Oceanogr. 2009; 54: 2273-82). Lakes are also part of the continuum of the water cycle, cogs in a machine that processes water and elements dissolved and suspended in myriad forms. Assessing the changes in the functioning of the cogs and the machine with respect to these substances as climate changes is clearly important, but difficult. Many other human-induced influences, not least eutrophication, that impact on catchment areas and consequently on lakes, have generally complicated the recording of recent change in sediment records and modern sets of data. The least confounded evidence comes from remote lakes in mountain and polar regions and suggests effects of warming that include mobilisation of ions and increased amounts of phosphorus. A cottage industry has arisen in deduction and prediction of the future effects of climate change on lakes, but the results are very general and precision is marred not only by confounding influences but by the complexity of the lake system and the infinite variety of possible future scenarios. A common conclusion, however, is that warming will increase the intensity of symptoms of eutrophication. Direct experimentation, though expensive and still unusual and confined to shallow lake and wetland systems is perhaps the most reliable approach. Results suggest increased symptoms of eutrophication, and changes in ecosystem structure, but in some respects are different from those deduced from comparisons along latitudinal gradients or by inference from knowledge of lake behaviour. Experiments have shown marked increases in community respiration compared with gross photosynthesis in mesocosm systems and it may be that the most significant churnings of these cogs in the earth-air-water machine will be in their influence on the carbon cycle, with possibly large positive feedback effects on warming. Copyright

  4. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

    2014-01-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

  5. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission: Monitoring the Global Tropics for 3 Years and Beyond. 1.1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, Marshall; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was launched in November 1997 as a joint U.S.-Japanese mission to advance understanding of the global energy and water cycle by providing distributions of rainfall and latent heating over the global tropics. As a part of NASA's Earth System Enterprise, TRMM seeks to understand the mechanisms through which changes in tropical rainfall influence global circulation. Additionally, a goal is to improve the ability to model these processes in order to predict global circulations and rainfall variability at monthly and longer time scales. Such understanding has implications for assessing climate processes related to El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming. TRMM has also provided unexpected and exciting new knowledge and applications in areas related to hurricane monitoring, lightning, pollution, hydrology, and other areas. This CD-ROM includes a self-contained PowerPoint presentation that provides an overview of TRMM and significant science results; a set of data movies or animation; and listings of current TRMM-related publications in the literature.

  6. Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

    2013-01-01

    Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in

  7. Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state, and potential adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeppesen, Erik; Kronvang, Brian; Meerhoff, Mariana; Søndergaard, Martin; Hansen, Kristina M; Andersen, Hans E; Lauridsen, Torben L; Liboriussen, Lone; Beklioglu, Meryem; Ozen, Arda; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2009-01-01

    Climate change may have profound effects on phosphorus (P) transport in streams and on lake eutrophication. Phosphorus loading from land to streams is expected to increase in northern temperate coastal regions due to higher winter rainfall and to a decline in warm temperate and arid climates. Model results suggest a 3.3 to 16.5% increase within the next 100 yr in the P loading of Danish streams depending on soil type and region. In lakes, higher eutrophication can be expected, reinforced by temperature-mediated higher P release from the sediment. Furthermore, a shift in fish community structure toward small and abundant plankti-benthivorous fish enhances predator control of zooplankton, resulting in higher phytoplankton biomass. Data from Danish lakes indicate increased chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass, higher dominance of dinophytes and cyanobacteria (most notably of nitrogen fixing forms), but lower abundance of diatoms and chrysophytes, reduced size of copepods and cladocerans, and a tendency to reduced zooplankton biomass and zooplankton:phytoplankton biomass ratio when lakes warm. Higher P concentrations are also seen in warm arid lakes despite reduced external loading due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced inflow. Therefore, the critical loading for good ecological state in lakes has to be lowered in a future warmer climate. This calls for adaptation measures, which in the northern temperate zone should include improved P cycling in agriculture, reduced loading from point sources, and (re)-establishment of wetlands and riparian buffer zones. In the arid Southern Europe, restrictions on human use of water are also needed, not least on irrigation.

  8. Distribution of tropical tropospheric water vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, De-Zheng; Lindzen, Richard S.

    1993-01-01

    Utilizing a conceptual model for tropical convection and observational data for water vapor, the maintenance of the vertical distribution of the tropical tropospheric water vapor is discussed. While deep convection induces large-scale subsidence that constrains the turbulent downgradient mixing to within the convective boundary layer and effectively dries the troposphere through downward advection, it also pumps hydrometeors into the upper troposphere, whose subsequent evaporation appears to be the major source of moisture for the large-scale subsiding motion. The development of upper-level clouds and precipitation from these clouds may also act to dry the outflow, thus explaining the low relative humidity near the tropopause. A one-dimensional model is developed to simulate the mean vertical structure of water vapor in the tropical troposphere. It is also shown that the horizontal variation of water vapor in the tropical troposphere above the trade-wind boundary layer can be explained by the variation of a moisture source that is proportional to the amount of upper-level clouds. Implications for the nature of water vapor feedback in global warming are discussed.

  9. Limited tolerance by insects to high temperatures across tropical elevational gradients and the implications of global warming for extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Robledo, Carlos; Kuprewicz, Erin K; Staines, Charles L; Erwin, Terry L; Kress, W John

    2016-01-19

    The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), the temperature at which motor control is lost in animals, has the potential to determine if species will tolerate global warming. For insects, tolerance to high temperatures decreases with latitude, suggesting that similar patterns may exist along elevational gradients as well. This study explored how CTmax varies among species and populations of a group of diverse tropical insect herbivores, the rolled-leaf beetles, across both broad and narrow elevational gradients. Data from 6,948 field observations and 8,700 museum specimens were used to map the elevational distributions of rolled-leaf beetles on two mountains in Costa Rica. CTmax was determined for 1,252 individual beetles representing all populations across the gradients. Initial morphological identifications suggested a total of 26 species with populations at different elevations displaying contrasting upper thermal limits. However, compared with morphological identifications, DNA barcodes (cytochrome oxidase I) revealed significant cryptic species diversity. DNA barcodes identified 42 species and haplotypes across 11 species complexes. These 42 species displayed much narrower elevational distributions and values of CTmax than the 26 morphologically defined species. In general, species found at middle elevations and on mountaintops are less tolerant to high temperatures than species restricted to lowland habitats. Species with broad elevational distributions display high CTmax throughout their ranges. We found no significant phylogenetic signal in CTmax, geography, or elevational range. The narrow variance in CTmax values for most rolled-leaf beetles, especially high-elevation species, suggests that the risk of extinction of insects may be substantial under some projected rates of global warming.

  10. Unprecedented drought over tropical South America in 2016: significantly under-predicted by tropical SST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, Amir; Wang, Guiling; Fomenko, Lori

    2017-07-19

    Tropical and sub-tropical South America are highly susceptible to extreme droughts. Recent events include two droughts (2005 and 2010) exceeding the 100-year return value in the Amazon and recurrent extreme droughts in the Nordeste region, with profound eco-hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. In 2015-2016, both regions were hit by another drought. Here, we show that the severity of the 2015-2016 drought ("2016 drought" hereafter) is unprecedented based on multiple precipitation products (since 1900), satellite-derived data on terrestrial water storage (since 2002) and two vegetation indices (since 2004). The ecohydrological consequences from the 2016 drought are more severe and extensive than the 2005 and 2010 droughts. Empirical relationships between rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic are used to assess the role of tropical oceanic variability in the observed precipitation anomalies. Our results indicate that warmer-than-usual SSTs in the Tropical Pacific (including El Niño events) and Atlantic were the main drivers of extreme droughts in South America, but are unable to explain the severity of the 2016 observed rainfall deficits for a substantial portion of the Amazonia and Nordeste regions. This strongly suggests potential contribution of non-oceanic factors (e.g., land cover change and CO2-induced warming) to the 2016 drought.

  11. Basal metabolism in tropical birds: latitude, altitude, and the ‘pace of life’

    OpenAIRE

    Londoño, Gustavo Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    Life history varies across latitudes, with the ‘pace of life’ being ‘slower’ in tropical regions. Because life history is coupled to energy metabolism via allocation tradeoffs and links between performance capacity and energy use, low metabolic intensity is expected in tropical animals. Low metabolism has been reported for lowland tropical birds, but it is unclear if this is due to ‘slow’ life history or to a warm, stable environment. We measured basal metabolic rates (BMR) of 253 bird spe...

  12. Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

    2018-01-01

    We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

  13. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  14. CHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF LAKE KIVU, RWANDA Olap

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2012-08-05

    Aug 5, 2012 ... Forestry, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria ... concentration in the lake water does not constitute any serious health risk to both man ..... tropics is adapted. .... personnel and laboratory space used for the research work. .... Water Quality of Angaw River in southern – eastern coastal plains of Ghana. W. Afri ...

  15. Freezing temperatures as a limit to forest recruitment above tropical Andean treelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehm, Evan M; Feeley, Kenneth J

    2015-07-01

    The elevation of altitudinal treelines is generally believed to occur where low mean temperatures during the growing season limit growth and prevent trees from establishing at higher elevations. Accordingly, treelines should move upslope with increasing global temperatures. Contrary to this prediction, tropical treelines have remained stable over the past several decades despite increasing mean temperatures. The observed stability of tropical treelines, coupled with the drastically different temperature profiles between temperate and tropical treelines, suggests that using mean measures of temperature to predict tropical treeline movements during climate change may be overly simplistic. We hypothesize that frost events at tropical treelines may slow climate driven treeline movement by preventing tree recruitment beyond the established forest canopy. To assess this hypothesis, we measured freezing resistance of four canopy-forming treeline species (Weinmannia fagaroides, Polylepis pauta, Clethra cuneata, and Gynoxys nitida) at two life stages (juvenile and adult) and during two seasons (warm-wet and cold-dry). Freezing resistances were then compared to microclimatic data to determine if freezing events in the grassland matrix above treeline are too harsh for these forest species. Freezing resistance varied among species and life stages from -5.7 degrees C for juveniles of P. pauta to -11.1 degrees C for juveniles of W. fagaroides. Over a four-year period, the lowest temperatures recorded at 10 cm above ground level in the grasslands above treeline and at treeline itself were -8.9 degrees C and -6.8 degrees C, respectively. Juveniles maintained freezing resistances similar to adults during the coldest parts of the year and ontogenetic differences in freezing resistance were only present during the warm season when temperatures did not represent a significant threat to active plant tissue. These findings support the hypothesis that rare extreme freezing events at and

  16. The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Deckker, Patrick

    2016-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.

  17. Influences of climate change on area variation of Qinghai Lake on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1980s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Lingyi; Duan, Xiaofang; Kong, Fanjin; Zhang, Fan; Zheng, Yangfan; Li, Zhen; Mei, Yi; Zhao, Yanwen; Hu, Shuijin

    2018-05-09

    Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the most sensitive region to global warming on Earth. Qinghai Lake, the largest lake on the plateau, has experienced evident area variation during the past several decades. To quantify the area changes of Qinghai Lake, a satellite-based survey based on Landsat images from the 1980s to 2010s has been performed. In addition, meteorological data from all the seven available stations on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been analyzed. Area of Qinghai Lake shrank ~2% during 1987-2005, and then increased ~3% from 2005-2016. Meanwhile, the average annual temperature increased 0.319 °C/10 y in the past 50 years, where the value is 0.415 °C/10 y from 2005-2016. The structural equation modeling (SEM) shows that precipitation is the primary factor influencing the area of Qinghai Lake. Moreover, temperature might be tightly correlated with precipitation, snow line, and evaporation, thereby indirectly causes alternations of the lake area. This study elucidated the significant area variation of water body on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under global warming since 1980s.

  18. Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

  19. The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, James H

    2007-01-01

    With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

  20. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  1. Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

    2009-01-01

    While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

  2. Greenhouse gas emissions from diverse Arctic Alaskan lakes are dominated by young carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elder, Clayton D.; Xu, Xiaomei; Walker, Jennifer; Schnell, Jordan L.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Townsend-Small, Amy; Arp, Christopher D.; Pohlman, John; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Czimzik, Claudia I.

    2018-01-01

    Climate-sensitive Arctic lakes have been identified as conduits for ancient permafrost-carbon (C) emissions and as such accelerate warming. However, the environmental factors that control emission pathways and their sources are unclear; this complicates upscaling, forecasting and climate-impact-assessment efforts. Here we show that current whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions from widespread lakes in Arctic Alaska primarily originate from organic matter fixed within the past 3–4 millennia (modern to 3,300 ± 70 years before the present), and not from Pleistocene permafrost C. Furthermore, almost 100% of the annual diffusive C flux is emitted as CO2. Although the lakes mostly processed younger C (89 ± 3% of total C emissions), minor contributions from ancient C sources were two times greater in fine-textured versus coarse-textured Pleistocene sediments, which emphasizes the importance of the underlying geological substrate in current and future emissions. This spatially extensive survey considered the environmental and temporal variability necessary to monitor and forecast the fate of ancient permafrost C as Arctic warming progresses.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions from diverse Arctic Alaskan lakes are dominated by young carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elder, Clayton D.; Xu, Xiaomei; Walker, Jennifer; Schnell, Jordan L.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Townsend-Small, Amy; Arp, Christopher D.; Pohlman, John W.; Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Czimczik, Claudia I.

    2018-01-01

    Climate-sensitive Arctic lakes have been identified as conduits for ancient permafrost-carbon (C) emissions and as such accelerate warming. However, the environmental factors that control emission pathways and their sources are unclear; this complicates upscaling, forecasting and climate-impact-assessment efforts. Here we show that current whole-lake CH4 and CO2 emissions from widespread lakes in Arctic Alaska primarily originate from organic matter fixed within the past 3-4 millennia (modern to 3,300 ± 70 years before the present), and not from Pleistocene permafrost C. Furthermore, almost 100% of the annual diffusive C flux is emitted as CO2. Although the lakes mostly processed younger C (89 ± 3% of total C emissions), minor contributions from ancient C sources were two times greater in fine-textured versus coarse-textured Pleistocene sediments, which emphasizes the importance of the underlying geological substrate in current and future emissions. This spatially extensive survey considered the environmental and temporal variability necessary to monitor and forecast the fate of ancient permafrost C as Arctic warming progresses.

  4. Survey and assessment of post volcanic activities of a young caldera lake, Lake Cuicocha, Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gunkel

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Cuicocha is a young volcano adjacent to the inactive Pleistocene Cotacachi volcano complex, located in the western cordilleras of the Ecuadorian Andes. A series of eruptions with intensive ash emission and collapse of the caldera occurred around 4500–3000 y BP. A crater 3.2 km in diameter and a maximum depth of 450 m was formed. Further eruptions of the volcano occurred 1300 y BP and formed four smaller domes within the caldera. Over the last few hundred years, a caldera lake has developed, with a maximum depth of 148 m. The lake water is characterized by sodium carbonate with elevated concentrations of manganese, calcium and chloride. Nowadays, an emission of gases, mainly CO2, and an input of warm spring water occur in Lake Cuicocha. The zone of high activity is in the western basin of the lake at a depth of 78 m, and continuous gas emissions with sediment resuspension were observed using sonar. In the hypolimnion of the lake, CO2 accumulation occurs up to 0.2% saturation, but the risk of a limnic eruption can be excluded at present. The lake possesses monomictic stratification behaviour, and during overturn an intensive gas exchange with the atmosphere occurs. Investigations concerning the sedimentation processes of the lake suggest only a thin sediment layer of up to 10–20 cm in the deeper lake basin; in the western bay, in the area of gas emissions, the lake bottom is partly depleted of sediment in the form of holes, and no lake colmation exists. Decreases in the lake water level of about 30 cm y−1 indicate a percolation of water into fractures and fissures of the volcano, triggered by a nearby earthquake in 1987.

  5. Temperature dependence of the relationship between pCO2 and dissolved organic carbon in lakes

    KAUST Repository

    Pinho, L.

    2016-02-15

    The relationship between the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in Brazilian lakes, encompassing 225 samples across a wide latitudinal range in the tropics, was tested. Unlike the positive relationship reported for lake waters, which was largely based on temperate lakes, we found no significant relationship for low-latitude lakes (< 33°), despite very broad ranges in both pCO2 and DOC levels. These results suggest substantial differences in the carbon cycling of low-latitude lakes, which must be considered when upscaling limnetic carbon cycling to global scales.

  6. Temperature dependence of the relationship between pCO2 and dissolved organic carbon in lakes

    KAUST Repository

    Pinho, L.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Marotta, H.; Enrich-Prast, A.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in Brazilian lakes, encompassing 225 samples across a wide latitudinal range in the tropics, was tested. Unlike the positive relationship reported for lake waters, which was largely based on temperate lakes, we found no significant relationship for low-latitude lakes (< 33°), despite very broad ranges in both pCO2 and DOC levels. These results suggest substantial differences in the carbon cycling of low-latitude lakes, which must be considered when upscaling limnetic carbon cycling to global scales.

  7. Phytoplankton response to winter warming modified by large-bodied zooplankton: an experimental microcosm study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu He

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available While several field investigations have demonstrated significant effects of cool season (winter or spring warming on phytoplankton development, the role played by large-bodied zooplankton grazers for the responses of phytoplankton to winter warming is ambiguous. We conducted an outdoor experiment to compare the effect of winter warming (heating by 3°C in combination with presence and absence of Daphnia grazing (D. similis on phytoplankton standing crops and community structure under eutrophic conditions. When Daphnia were absent, warming was associated with significant increases in phytoplankton biomass and cyanobacterial dominance. In contrast, when Daphnia were present, warming effects on phytoplankton dynamics were offset by warming-enhanced grazing, resulting in no significant change in biomass or taxonomic dominance. These results emphasize that large-bodied zooplankton like Daphnia spp. may play an important role in modulating the interactions between climate warming and phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient rich lake ecosystems.

  8. Zooplankton in littoral waters of a tropical lake: a revisited biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PM. Maia-Barbosa

    Full Text Available The present study was carried out in Lake Dom Helvécio, in the state of Minas Gerais, with two main objectives: to demonstrate the contribution of the littoral zone, in order to better characterize zooplankton fauna; and to assess the distribution of zooplankton species in different habitats, i.e., the littoral zone with and without aquatic vegetation. The samples were collected in February and July 2006, throughout the littoral zone of the lake, in areas with and without aquatic vegetation. We identified a total of 188 species, of which 130 are new records for Lake Dom Helvécio. One hundred and eighty-four species were identified in the littoral zone with aquatic vegetation, and 117 in the zone with no vegetation. The higher zooplankton richness in areas of the littoral zone with aquatic vegetation can be related to the greater environmental heterogeneity. Compared to previous studies on the littoral zones of lakes along the middle River Doce, the present study expended greater sampling effort, and identified many more species. In relation to biological conservation, this study demonstrated the importance of the littoral zone for better characterization and conservation of the zooplankton fauna, especially when it is colonized by aquatic vegetation. Underestimating the richness of species may provide inaccurate data on the biota, as well as on the ecological conditions in an environment.

  9. Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

    2006-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

  10. A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

  11. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

  12. Oh Magadi! Interpreting isoGDGTs and n-alkanes in a saline tropical lake: Lake Magadi, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferland, T. M.; Werne, J. P.; Castañeda, I. S.; Cohen, A. S.; Lowenstein, T. K.; Deocampo, D.; Renaut, R.; Bernhart, O. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) seeks to understand the paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental context of hominin adaptation and evolution by analysis of paleolacustrine cores taken near key hominin fossil and artifact localities in Kenya and Ethiopia. We present biomarker and compound specific isotope data from a 200 m drill core from Lake Magadi, Kenya. Located 20 km from the Koora Plain in the southern Kenya Rift, and adjacent to the Olorgesailie basin, Lake Magadi is in one of the richest Early-Late Pleistocene archaeological localities in Africa, a region that has been key in debates about the relationship between climate and evolution. Present-day Lake Magadi is a saline pan, a descendant of a series of paleolakes that have occupied its drainage basin and progressively dried for approximately one million years. Nearly 70% of samples analyzed for n-alkanes recorded a robust terrestrial signal. The majority of samples did not contain the complete suite of branched GDGTs necessary to reconstruct temperature from the Methylation of Branched Tetraethers and Cyclisation of Branched Tetraethers (MBT/CBT; Weijers et al., 2007) proxy. The TetraEther indeX with 86 carbon atoms (TEX86; Schouten et al., 2002) temperature proxy was established for 90% of samples analyzed for isoGDGTs, however the Methane and Ring Indices (Zhang et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2016) suggest that the TEX86 is not applicable to temperature reconstruction at Magadi. Despite this, the Magadi TEX86 temperature reconstruction appears to agree with not only the trends in our n-alkane data but with other regional and global records, including the GRIP-2 δ18O record. We compare our temperature data to other records in the region, and investigate influences on our TEX86 data including microbial community turnover and lake drying.

  13. Heavy metals in sediments of a large, turbid tropical lake affected by anthropogenic discharges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosales-Hoz, L.; Carranza-Edwards, A.; Lopez-Hernandez, M. [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City (Mexico). Inst. de Ciencias del Mar y Limnologia

    2000-01-01

    Bottom-water data and trace metal concentration of Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, Co, Zn, and organic matter in surficial sediment samples from 13 sampling stations of Lake Chapala in Mexico were studied. The lake is turbid with a great amount of flocculated sediments as a result of wind mixing, sediment re-suspension, and Lerma River discharges. Al distribution pattern in sediments was used as an indicator of the Lerma River discharges into Lake Chapala. The highest values of Cu (33.27 ppm), Cr (81.94 ppm), Pb (99.8 ppm), and Zn (149.7 ppm) were detected in sediments near the lake outlet. The bioavailable metal fraction is low for all metals except Pb, which shows 65-93% of the total metal concentration in bioavailable form. The minimum energy zone in the lake was related to organic matter concentration and was located in the SE part of the lake. An analysis of the studied parameters shows two zones: eastern zone (fluvio-deltaic) and central-western zone (lacustrine). (orig.)

  14. Covariability of Central America/Mexico winter precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yutong; Zeng, Ning; Mariotti, Annarita; Wang, Hui; Kumar, Arun; Sánchez, René Lobato; Jha, Bhaskar

    2018-06-01

    In this study, the relationships between Central America/Mexico (CAM) winter precipitation and tropical Pacific/Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are examined based on 68-year (1948-2015) observations and 59-year (1957-2015) atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SSTs. The covariability of the winter precipitation and SSTs is quantified using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method with observational data. The first SVD mode relates out-of-phase precipitation anomalies in northern Mexico and Central America to the tropical Pacific El Niño/La Niña SST variation. The second mode links a decreasing trend in the precipitation over Central America to the warming of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, as well as in the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean. The first mode represents 67% of the covariance between the two fields, indicating a strong association between CAM winter precipitation and El Niño/La Niña, whereas the second mode represents 20% of the covariance. The two modes account for 32% of CAM winter precipitation variance, of which, 17% is related to the El Niño/La Niña SST and 15% is related to the SST warming trend. The atmospheric circulation patterns, including 500-hPa height and low-level winds obtained by linear regressions against the SVD SST time series, are dynamically consistent with the precipitation anomaly patterns. The model simulations driven by the observed SSTs suggest that these precipitation anomalies are likely a response to tropical SST forcing. It is also shown that there is significant potential predictability of CAM winter precipitation given tropical SST information.

  15. Proxies of Tropical Cyclone Isotope Spikes in Precipitation: Landfall Site Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, J. R.; Maddocks, R.

    2011-12-01

    The human experience of climate change is not one of gradual changes in seasonal or yearly changes in temperature or rainfall. Despite that most paleoclimatic reconstructions attempt to provide just such information. Humans experience climate change on much shorter time scales. We remember hurricanes, weeks of drought or overwhelming rainy periods. Tropical cyclones produce very low isotope ratios in both rainfall and in atmospheric water vapor. Thus, climate proxies that potentially record these low isotope ratios offer the most concrete record of climate change to which humans can relate. The oxygen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in fresh water carbonate fossil material, cave deposits and corals. The hydrogen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in tree ring cellulose and organic matter in fresh water bodies. The Class of carbonate organisms known as Ostracoda form their carapaces very rapidly. Thus fresh water ephemeral ponds in the subtropics are ideal locations for isotopic studies because they commonly are totally dry when tropical cyclones make landfall. The other proxies suffer primarily from a dilution effect. The water from tropical cyclones is mixed with pre-existing water. In cave deposits tropical cyclone rains mix with soil and ground waters. In the near shore coral environment the rain mixes with seawater. For tree rings there are three sources of water: soil water, atmospheric water vapor that exchanges with leaf water and tropical cyclone rain. In lakes because of their large size rainfall runoff mixes with ground water and preexisting water in the lake. A region that shows considerable promise is Texas / Northeast Mexico. In a study of surface waters that developed from the passage of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in SE Texas both the pond water and Ostracoda that bloomed recorded the low oxygen isotope signal of that storm (Lawrence et al, 2008). In

  16. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcolm, Jay R; Liu, Canran; Neilson, Ronald P; Hansen, Lara; Hannah, Lee

    2006-04-01

    Global warming is a key threat to biodiversity, but few researchers have assessed the magnitude of this threat at the global scale. We used major vegetation types (biomes) as proxies for natural habitats and, based on projected future biome distributions under doubled-CO2 climates, calculated changes in habitat areas and associated extinctions of endemic plant and vertebrate species in biodiversity hotspots. Because of numerous uncertainties in this approach, we undertook a sensitivity analysis of multiple factors that included (1) two global vegetation models, (2) different numbers of biome classes in our biome classification schemes, (3) different assumptions about whether species distributions were biome specific or not, and (4) different migration capabilities. Extinctions were calculated using both species-area and endemic-area relationships. In addition, average required migration rates were calculated for each hotspot assuming a doubled-CO2 climate in 100 years. Projected percent extinctions ranged from hotspots were the Cape Floristic Region, Caribbean, Indo-Burma, Mediterranean Basin, Southwest Australia, and Tropical Andes, where plant extinctions per hotspot sometimes exceeded 2000 species. Under the assumption that projected habitat changes were attained in 100 years, estimated global-warming-induced rates of species extinctions in tropical hotspots in some cases exceeded those due to deforestation, supporting suggestions that global warming is one of the most serious threats to the planet's biodiversity.

  17. Variation of limnological parameters in a tropical lake used for tilapia cage farming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Graciele P. Venturoti

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the effects of tilapia cage culture on the water quality and sediment of Palminhas Lake during both the dry and rainy seasons. Eight sites within the lake (four in fish farms and four in areas without fish farms and one site on an affluent stream were sampled monthly from February 2011 to January 2012. Dissolved oxygen and pH were significantly lower at fish farm sites than at locations without farms, while chlorophyll a was higher at fish farm sites. Moreover, large seasonal variations were observed, which were not related to the fish farms. The Secchi disc depth and ammonia nitrogen level were significantly higher during the dry season, but temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, total phosphorus and chlorophyll a were significantly higher during the rainy season. The affluent stream contributed substantially to lake eutrophication. Palminhas Lake is mesotrophic and has exhibited a progressive worsening in water quality over the past 20 years. These changes were not caused by fish farming alone but probably by other anthropic activities in the areas surrounding the lake.

  18. [Limnology of high mountain tropical lake, in Ecuador: characteristics of sediments and rate of sedimentation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunkel, Günter

    2003-06-01

    Equatorial high mountain lakes are a special type of lake occurring mainly in the South American Andes as well as in Central Africa and Asia. They occur at altitudes of a few thousand meters above sea level and are cold-water lakes (limnological study was therefore undertaken at Lake San Pablo, Ecuador, to analyze the basic limnological processes of the lake, which has a tendency for eutrophication. Sediment quality of San Pablo Lake is given under consideration of horizontal and vertical distribution using sediment cores. Significance of sediments for eutrophication process of lakes is demonstrated using phosphorus concentration of sediments as well as the phosphorus retention capacity of the sediments by ratio Fe/P. Dating of the sediments is done using 137Cs and 210Pb, but the activity of 137Cs in the sediment was very low nearly at the detection level. Sedimentation rate is determined to be 3.5 mm/year and the sediment cores represent about 110 years. P concentration of the sediments is high (approximately 5 g/kg dry substance), and P retention capacity by Fe is insufficient (Fe/P = 4). The sediment quality did not change significantly during the past decades, and the trophic state of San Pablo Lake was already less or more eutrophic 110 years ago. The contamination of the lake sediments by heavy metals is insignificant.

  19. Glaciation and Hydrologic Variability in Tropical South America During the Last 400,000 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Seltzer, G. O.; Ekdahl, E. J.; Ballantyne, A.

    2005-12-01

    The expansion and contraction of northern continental ice sheets is a fundamental characteristic of the Quaternary. However, the extent of tropical glaciation is poorly constrained, particularly for periods prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Similarly, the magnitude and timing of hydrologic variation in tropical South America is not clearly defined over multiple glacial cycles. Thus, the relative roles of global temperature change and insolation control of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) are unclear. We have reconstructed the timing of glaciation and precipitation variability in the tropical Andes of South America from drill cores from Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru. The longest core (site LT01-2B, 235 m water depth) is 136 m and consists of four major silt-dominated units with high magnetic susceptibility, low organic carbon concentration, and no carbonate, which are indicative of extensive glacial activity in the cordillera surrounding the lake. These units alternate with laminated low-susceptibility units, with high carbonate and organic carbon concentrations, which reflect times when detrital input from the watershed was low and lake-level was lowered to below the outlet threshold, driving carbonate precipitation. Thus, the stratigraphy suggests that the core spans four major periods of glaciation and the subsequent interstadials. Core chronology is based on radiocarbon in the uppermost 25m, U-series dates on aragonite laminae, and tuning of the calcium carbonate stratigraphy in the lowermost sediments to the Vostok CO2 record. High-resolution (ca. 100 yr) sampling of sediments spanning the last glacial stage shows distinct millennial-scale variability from 20 - 65 kyr BP. This variability is evident in the periodic deposition of turbidites, which are characterized by low biogenic silica concentrations, elevated benthic diatom abundances, heavy carbon isotopic values, high C/N ratios, and an increase in mean grain size - a composite signal

  20. Global warming and spread of infectious diseases; Globale Erwaermung und Ausbreitung von Infektionskrankheiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebert, B.; Fleischer, B. [Bernhard-Nocht-Institut fuer Tropenmedizin (BNI), Hamburg (Germany)

    2005-01-15

    At the end of the twentieth century, tropical infectious diseases increased despite earlier successes of eradication campaigns. As a global warming of 1.4-5.8 C is anticipated to occur by 2100, mainly the vector-borne tropical diseases that are particularly sensitive to climate are expected to spread. Although biological reasons seemingly support this hypothesis, ecological and socio-economic factors have in the past proven to be stronger driving forces for the spread of infectious diseases than climate. (orig.)

  1. Paleolimnologic and modeling perspectives on the physical and ecological sensitivity of Arctic tundra lakes to temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, W.; Russel, J.; Giblin, A. E.; Longo, W. M.; Morrill, C.; Holland-Stergar, P.; Rose, R.; Huang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Temperatures are warming rapidly across the Arctic, with the potential to substantially alter freshwater ecosystem structure and functioning. Some important processes, such as allochthonous loading or carbon burial, may respond too slowly to observe in modern monitoring efforts, and therefore require alternative approaches to accurately assess. Here we analyze the physical and ecological sensitivity of Alaska tundra lakes to climate change through the lenses of paleolimnology and lake thermal modeling. We compare a 10,000 year long record of biomarker-inferred temperature change (leaf wax hydrogen isotopes) to independent indicators of lake primary production (chlorophyll a), algal community structure (diatom assemblages), and allochthonous inputs (XRF chemistry) from Lake E5 and Upper Capsule Lake near the Toolik Field Station in Alaska (69 °N, 150 °W). Temperatures varied on the order of 2-5 °C over the last 10,000 years, and warmed 1-2 °C during the post-industrial period. Shifts in diatom communities in both lakes reflect increased lake stratification and lake pH during warmer intervals of the Holocene. While lake stratification is a direct response to temperature, we propose that the pH response is due to a combination of two factors. First, an increase in the length of the ice-free season promotes ventilation of respired CO2 out of the lakes. Thermal modeling suggests that lake ice coverage changes by approximately 6-8 days/°C, and so we expect that ice-cover changed by as much as 3-4 weeks throughout the Holocene. Secondarily, sediment core calcium concentrations suggest increased base cation and alkalinity inputs during warmer periods, most likely due to the thermal-induced deepening of the soil active layer and enhanced carbonate rock weathering. Carbon and chlorophyll concentrations appear negatively correlated with temperature over most the Holocene, attributable to the temperature effect on organic matter respiration, although periods of enhanced

  2. Differentiating TOC sources, preservation, and potential methane emissions in sub-Arctic lakes in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, J. E.; Varner, R. K.; Wik, M.; Chanton, J.; Crill, P. M.

    2015-12-01

    Organic carbon-rich sediments from high latitude, shallow lakes and ponds are significant sources of methane throughout the Arctic. The origin and evolution of these lakes and ponds, however, is often not the same. Several lake types have been identified based on (1) hydrological conditions (melt-water fed, rain water fed, groundwater influenced, evaporation dominated, drained) (2) permafrost condition (thermokarst), and (3) time of origin (glacial or post-glacial). Given sufficient time (100's to 1000's years) many of these lake types may morph into others. In sub-Arctic Sweden, near Abisko and within the zone of discontinuous permafrost, the elongate glacial lake Torneträsk is fed by several streams draining the surrounding highlands. Lake Tornetrask is one of several NW-SE trending glacial lakes common in the landscape throughout northern and western Sweden. Between and alongside these glacial lakes, several small (ponds exist in low-lying mires. Sediment cores from the lakes in the Stordalen Mire are characterized by high total organic carbon (TOC) content (10-50 wt. %) in the uppermost ~50 cm and commonly underlain by glaciofluvial derived sediments with lower TOC (emissions from several of these lakes has also been measured and is driven by heat input. Coincident young ages of carbon in the sediments and in methane indicate in situ production. A published record from Lake Torneträsk shows sediments there contain significantly less TOC (1-2.5 wt. %) that is derived primarily from old, terrestrial organic carbon delivered via rivers to the lake. Although the larger and deeper glacial lakes currently occupy much of the landscape it is becoming clear that as the Arctic warms TOC preservation and methane production in the smaller lakes and ponds play a more significant, immediate role in emission of methane to the atmosphere. With continued warming in the Arctic, terrestrial TOC will be relinquished from highland watersheds to glacial lakes, but the methane

  3. Monitoring climate signal transfer into the varved lake sediments of Lake Czechowskie, Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groß-Schmölders, Miriam; Ott, Florian; Brykała, Dariusz; Gierszewski, Piotr; Kaszubski, Michał; Kienel, Ulrike; Brauer, Achim

    2015-04-01

    In 2012 we started a monitoring program at Lake Czechowskie, Poland, because the lake comprises a long Holocene time series of calcite varves until recent times. The aim of the program is to understand how environmental and climatic conditions influence the hydrological conditions and, ultimately, the sediment deposition processes of the lake. Lake Czechowskie is located in the north of Poland in the Pomeranian Lake District and is part of the national park Tuchola Forest. The landscape and the lake is formed by the glacier retreat after the last glaciation (Weichselian). Lake Czechowskie is a typical hardwater lake and has a length of 1.4 km, an average width of 600 m and a lake surface area of ca 4 km. The maximum depth of 32 m is reached in a rather small hollow in the eastern part of the lake. Two different types of sediment traps provide sediment samples with monthly resolution from different water depths (12m, 26m). In addition, hydrological data including water temperature in different depths, water inflow, throughflow and outflow and the depth of visibility are measured. These data allow to describe strength and duration of lake mixing in spring and autumn and its influence on sedimentation. The sediment samples were analyzed with respect to their dry weight (used to calculate mean daily sediment flux), their inorganic and organic carbon contents, the stable C- and O-isotopes of organic matter and calcite as well as N-isotopes of organic matter. For selected samples dominant diatom taxa are determined. Our first results demonstrate the strong influence of the long winter with ice cover until April in 2013 on the sedimentation. A rapid warming in only 9 days starting on April 9th from -0,3 C° to 15,2 C° resulted in fast ice break-up and a short but intensive lake mixing. In consequence of this short mixing period a strong algal bloom especially of Fragilaria and Crysophycea commenced in April and had its maximum in May. This bloom further induced biogenic

  4. The tropical lapse rate steepened during the Last Glacial Maximum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loomis, S.E.; Russell, J.M.; Verschuren, D.; Morrill, C.; De Cort, G.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.; Olago, D.; Eggermont, H.; Street-Perrott, F.A.; Kelly, M.A.

    2017-01-01

    The gradient of air temperature with elevation (the temperature lapse rate) in the tropics is predicted to become lesssteep during the coming century as surface temperature rises, enhancing the threat of warming in high-mountainenvironments. However, the sensitivity of the lapse rate to climate

  5. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8?ka and decrease at ~5.9?ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

  6. Preliminary analysis of downhole logging data from ICDP Lake Junin drilling Project, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierdominici, Simona; Kück, Jochem; Rodbell, Donald T.; Abbott, Mark B.

    2016-04-01

    The International Continental Drilling Programm (ICDP) has supported a scientific drilling campaign in Peru during the summer season 2015. The Lake Junin Drilling Project mainly aims at obtaining high-resolution paleoclimate records from lacustrine sediments to reconstruct the history of the continental records covering the glacial-interglacial cycles. Lake Junín is located at 4000 m a.s.l. in the tropical Andes of Peru, and is characterized by a thick (> 125 m) sediment package deposited at a high rate (0.2 to 1.0 mm yr-1). Lake Junín is one of the few lakes in the tropical Andes that predates the maximum extent of glaciation and is in a geomorphic position to record the waxing and waning of glaciers in nearby cordillera, hence making the lake a key site for the investigation of the Quaternary climate evolution in the inner-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Continous coring was performed at three sites in overall 11 boreholes on the lake with at least two overlapping boreholes per site to avoid core gaps. The depth of the boreholes varied between approx. 30 m and 110 m depending on the drill site. The core bit had a bit size of 122.6 mm and yielded a core diameter of 85 mm. Upon completion of coring operations downhole geophysical logging was performed in five of the 11 boreholes (1A, 1C, 1D, 2A and 3B) by the Operational Support Group of ICDP. The main objective was to record in-situ the physical properties of the lacustrine sediments of Lake Junin. Downhole logs provide a powerful tool to fill in information at intervals with core gaps and as depth reference for depth matching of the discontinous cores. Furthermore it will be used for the lithological reconstruction and interpretation. The OSG downhole logging comprised total and spectrum gamma ray, magnetic susceptibility, borehole geometry, temperature, and sonic P-wave velocity. Unstable and collapsing borehole walls made it neccessary to carry out logging in several sections instead of in one run. The

  7. El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

    2009-12-08

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

  8. A shift of thermokarst lakes from carbon sources to sinks during the Holocene epoch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter Anthony, K. M.; Zimov, S. A.; Grosse, G.; Jones, Miriam C.; Anthony, P.; Chapin, F. S.; Finlay, J. C.; Mack, M. C.; Davydov, S.; Frenzel, P.F.; Frolking, S.

    2014-01-01

    Thermokarst lakes formed across vast regions of Siberia and Alaska during the last deglaciation and are thought to be a net source of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide during the Holocene epoch1,2,3,4. However, the same thermokarst lakes can also sequester carbon5, and it remains uncertain whether carbon uptake by thermokarst lakes can offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we use field observations of Siberian permafrost exposures, radiocarbon dating and spatial analyses to quantify Holocene carbon stocks and fluxes in lake sediments overlying thawed Pleistocene-aged permafrost. We find that carbon accumulation in deep thermokarst-lake sediments since the last deglaciation is about 1.6 times larger than the mass of Pleistocene-aged permafrost carbon released as greenhouse gases when the lakes first formed. Although methane and carbon dioxide emissions following thaw lead to immediate radiative warming, carbon uptake in peat-rich sediments occurs over millennial timescales. We assess thermokarst-lake carbon feedbacks to climate with an atmospheric perturbation model and find that thermokarst basins switched from a net radiative warming to a net cooling climate effect about 5,000 years ago. High rates of Holocene carbon accumulation in 20 lake sediments (47±10 grams of carbon per square metre per year; mean±standard error) were driven by thermokarst erosion and deposition of terrestrial organic matter, by nutrient release from thawing permafrost that stimulated lake productivity and by slow decomposition in cold, anoxic lake bottoms. When lakes eventually drained, permafrost formation rapidly sequestered sediment carbon. Our estimate of about 160petagrams of Holocene organic carbon in deep lake basins of Siberia and Alaska increases the circumpolar peat carbon pool estimate for permafrost regions by over 50 per cent (ref. 6). The carbon in perennially frozen drained lake sediments may become vulnerable to mineralization as permafrost disappears7

  9. Tropical Cyclone Induced Air-Sea Interactions Over Oceanic Fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shay, L. K.

    2012-12-01

    Recent severe tropical cyclones underscore the inherent importance of warm background ocean fronts and their interactions with the atmospheric boundary layer. Central to the question of heat and moisture fluxes, the amount of heat available to the tropical cyclone is predicated by the initial mixed layer depth and strength of the stratification that essentially set the level of entrainment mixing at the base of the mixed layer. In oceanic regimes where the ocean mixed layers are thin, shear-induced mixing tends to cool the upper ocean to form cold wakes which reduces the air-sea fluxes. This is an example of negative feedback. By contrast, in regimes where the ocean mixed layers are deep (usually along the western part of the gyres), warm water advection by the nearly steady currents reduces the levels of turbulent mixing by shear instabilities. As these strong near-inertial shears are arrested, more heat and moisture transfers are available through the enthalpy fluxes (typically 1 to 1.5 kW m-2) into the hurricane boundary layer. When tropical cyclones move into favorable or neutral atmospheric conditions, tropical cyclones have a tendency to rapidly intensify as observed over the Gulf of Mexico during Isidore and Lili in 2002, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, Dean and Felix in 2007 in the Caribbean Sea, and Earl in 2010 just north of the Caribbean Islands. To predict these tropical cyclone deepening (as well as weakening) cycles, coupled models must have ocean models with realistic ocean conditions and accurate air-sea and vertical mixing parameterizations. Thus, to constrain these models, having complete 3-D ocean profiles juxtaposed with atmospheric profiler measurements prior, during and subsequent to passage is an absolute necessity framed within regional scale satellite derived fields.

  10. Multi-Decadal to Millennial Scale Holocene Hydrologic Variation in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Burns, S. J.; Coley, K.; Rigsby, C. A.

    2005-12-01

    Numerous sites in the Northern Hemisphere show multi-decadal to millennial scale climate variation during the Holocene, many of which have been correlated with changes in atmospheric radiocarbon production or with changes in North Atlantic oceanic circulation. The manifestation of such climate variability in the hydrology of the Southern Hemisphere tropics of South America is unclear, because of the limited number of records at suitably high resolution. In the Lake Titicaca drainage basin of Bolivia and Peru, high-resolution lacustrine records reveal the overall pattern of Holocene lake-level change, the influence of precessional forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon, and the effects of high-frequency climate variability in records of lake productivity and lake ecology. Precessional forcing of regional precipitation is evident in the Lake Titicaca basin as a massive (ca. 85 m) mid-Holocene decline in lake level beginning about 7800 cal yr BP and a subsequent rise in lake level after 4000 cal yr BP. Here we show that multi-decadal to millennial-scale climate variability, superimposed upon the envelope of change at orbital time scales, is similar in timing and pattern to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events in the North Atlantic. A high-resolution carbon isotopic record from Lake Titicaca that spans the entire Holocene suggests that cold intervals of Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation on the Altiplano relative to the Northern Hemisphere tropics. A similar pattern of variation is also evident in high-resolution (2-30 yr spacing) diatom and geochemical records that span the last 7000 yr from two smaller lakes, Lagos Umayo and Lagunillas, in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin.

  11. The super greenhouse effect in a warming world: the role of dynamics and thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashinath, Karthik; O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

    2016-04-01

    Over warm tropical oceans the increase in greenhouse trapping with increasing SST can be faster than that of the surface emission, resulting in a decrease in clear sky outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR) when SST increases, also known as the super greenhouse effect (SGE). If the SGE is directly linked to SST changes, there are profound implications for positive climate feedbacks in the tropics. We show that CMIP5 models perform well in simulating the observed clear-sky greenhouse effect in the present day. Using global warming experiments we show that the onset and shutdown SST of the SGE, as well as the magnitude of the SGE, increase as the convective threshold SST increases. To account for an increasing convective threshold SST we use an invariant coordinate for convection proposed in a recent study [Williams et al., GRL (2009)]. However, even after accounting for the increase in tropical SST (by normalizing the SGE by surface emission) and accounting for the increase in the threshold temperature for convection (by using the invariant coordinate) we find that the models predict a distinct increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect in a warmed world. This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e. SST) plays a crucial role in regulating the increasing clear sky greenhouse effect in a warming world. We use theoretical arguments to estimate this increase in SGE and derive its dependence on SST. Finally, as shown in previous studies, we confirm that the increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect is primarily due to upper tropospheric moistening. Although the absolute increase in upper tropospheric water vapor is small compared to that of the lower troposphere, since the absorptivity scales with fractional changes in water vapor, the contribution of the upper troposphere is more significant, as shown by Chung et al., PNAS (2014).

  12. The tropical lapse rate steepened during the Last Glacial Maximum

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loomis, Shannon E; Russell, James M; Verschuren, Dirk; Morrill, Carrie; De Cort, Gijs; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Olago, Daniel; Eggermont, Hilde; Street-Perrott, F Alayne; Kelly, Meredith A

    The gradient of air temperature with elevation (the temperature lapse rate) in the tropics is predicted to become less steep during the coming century as surface temperature rises, enhancing the threat of warming in high-mountain environments. However, the sensitivity of the lapse rate to climate

  13. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

  14. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  15. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  16. Assessment of biological effects of pollutants in a hyper eutrophic tropical water body, Lake Beira, Sri Lanka using multiple biomarker responses of resident fish, Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiratne, Asoka; Pathiratne, K A S; De Seram, P K C

    2010-08-01

    Biomarkers measured at the molecular and cellular level in fish have been proposed as sensitive "early warning" tools for biological effect measurements in environmental quality assessments. Lake Beira is a hypertrophic urban water body with a complex mixture of pollutants including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Microcystins. In this study, a suite of biomarker responses viz. biliary fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs), hepatic ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) and glutathione S-transferase (GST), brain and muscle cholinesterases (ChE), serum sorbitol dehydrogenase (SDH), and liver histology of Oreochromis niloticus, the dominant fish inhabiting this tropical Lake were evaluated to assess the pollution exposure and biological effects. Some fish sampled in the dry periods demonstrated prominent structural abnormalities in the liver and concomitant increase in serum SDH and reduction in hepatic GST activities in comparison to the control fish and the fish sampled in the rainy periods. The resident fish with apparently normal liver demonstrated induction of hepatic EROD and GST activities and increase in biliary FACs irrespective of the sampling period indicating bioavailability of PAHs. Muscle ChE activities of the resident fish were depressed significantly indicating exposure to anticholinesterase substances. The results revealed that fish populations residing in this Lake is under threat due to the pollution stress. Hepatic abnormalities in the fish may be mainly associated with the pollution stress due to recurrent exposure to PAHs and toxigenic Microcystis blooms in the Lake.

  17. Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

    2018-01-01

    The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

  18. Ocean climate coupling in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past fifty years: implications and feedbacks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiujun; Murtugudde, Ragu; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The tropical Pacific plays an important role in climate because of its significant air-sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and carbon dioxide (C02), and because of its direct linkage to climate variability. There are two dominant modes of climate variability in the Tropics: the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There has been strong evidence of ENSO and PDO impacts on tropical Pacific physics and biogeochemistry, including heat content, ocean circulation (McPhaden and Zhang 2002), and carbon fluxes (Feely ef al. 2006; Wang ef al. 2006). In this study, we apply a basin-scale ocean circulation-ecosystem-carbon model (Wang ef al. 2006) to study the responses of the tropical Pacific ecosystem, biogeochemistry and carbon cycle to climate forcing over the past 50 years. The model produces strong spatial and temporal variability in surface nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass, carbon uptake, and sea-to-air C02 flux, which are largely associated with the ENSO phenomenon. In particular, the size of the tropical Pacific C02 source is large during the ENSO cold phase but small during the ENSO warm phase. There are significant decadal variations in tropical Pacific carbon fluxes, reflecting physical and biogeochemical changes associated with the 1977 and 1997/98 PDO shifts. The 1977 regime shift caused 1 0 C warming in sea surface temperature and -50% reduction in surface iron concentration in the Niho3.4 area, leading to decreased biological activity. While there is a large decrease in phytoplankton growth and biomass, reduction in carbon uptake is smaller than expected, due to phytoplankton photoadaption, which increases the carbon to chlorophyll ratio in the upper euphotic zone and enhances sub-surface production. Photoadaption also results in clearer water near the surface, leading to less heating near the ocean surface and allowing more solar radiation to penetrate the subsurface. Our studies

  19. Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of mercury in African lakes: The importance of trophic status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poste, Amanda E., E-mail: amanda.poste@niva.no [Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo (Norway); Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 (Canada); Muir, Derek C.G. [Aquatic Contaminants Research Division, Environment Canada, 867 Lakeshore Drive, Burlington, ON L7R 4A6 (Canada); Guildford, Stephanie J.; Hecky, Robert E. [Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1 (Canada); Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth, 2205 East Fifth Street, Duluth, MN 55812 (United States)

    2015-02-15

    Despite the global prevalence of both mercury (Hg) contamination and anthropogenic eutrophication, relatively little is known about the behavior of Hg in eutrophic and hypereutrophic systems or the effects of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and trophodynamics. In the current study we explore Hg trophodynamics at 8 tropical East African study sites ranging from mesotrophic to hypereutrophic, in order to assess the influence of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and biomagnification. Comprehensive water, plankton and fish samples were collected for analysis of total mercury (THg) and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios. We found evidence that uptake of THg into phytoplankton tended to be lower in higher productivity systems. THg concentrations in fish were generally low, and THg trophic magnification factors (TMFs; representing the average increase in contaminant concentrations from one trophic level to the next) ranged from 1.9 to 5.6. Furthermore TMFs were significantly lower in hypereutrophic lakes than in meso- and eutrophic lakes, and were negatively related to chlorophyll a concentrations both across our study lakes, and across African lakes for which literature data were available. These observations suggest that THg concentrations were strongly influenced by trophic status, with year-round high phytoplankton and fish growth rates reducing the potential for high THg in fish in these productive tropical lakes. - Highlights: • We characterized Hg in water and biota from 8 East African study sites. • Hg concentrations in fish were low and should not pose a risk to human consumers. • Hg uptake and biomagnification rates were negatively related to trophic status. • Growth dilution in phytoplankton and consumer trophic levels led to low fish Hg.

  20. Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of mercury in African lakes: The importance of trophic status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poste, Amanda E.; Muir, Derek C.G.; Guildford, Stephanie J.; Hecky, Robert E.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the global prevalence of both mercury (Hg) contamination and anthropogenic eutrophication, relatively little is known about the behavior of Hg in eutrophic and hypereutrophic systems or the effects of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and trophodynamics. In the current study we explore Hg trophodynamics at 8 tropical East African study sites ranging from mesotrophic to hypereutrophic, in order to assess the influence of lake trophic status on Hg uptake and biomagnification. Comprehensive water, plankton and fish samples were collected for analysis of total mercury (THg) and stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios. We found evidence that uptake of THg into phytoplankton tended to be lower in higher productivity systems. THg concentrations in fish were generally low, and THg trophic magnification factors (TMFs; representing the average increase in contaminant concentrations from one trophic level to the next) ranged from 1.9 to 5.6. Furthermore TMFs were significantly lower in hypereutrophic lakes than in meso- and eutrophic lakes, and were negatively related to chlorophyll a concentrations both across our study lakes, and across African lakes for which literature data were available. These observations suggest that THg concentrations were strongly influenced by trophic status, with year-round high phytoplankton and fish growth rates reducing the potential for high THg in fish in these productive tropical lakes. - Highlights: • We characterized Hg in water and biota from 8 East African study sites. • Hg concentrations in fish were low and should not pose a risk to human consumers. • Hg uptake and biomagnification rates were negatively related to trophic status. • Growth dilution in phytoplankton and consumer trophic levels led to low fish Hg

  1. The Effect of Soil Warming on Decomposition of Biochar, Wood, and Bulk Soil Organic Carbon in Contrasting Temperate and Tropical Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torn, Margaret; Tas, Neslihan; Reichl, Ken; Castanha, Cristina; Fischer, Marc; Abiven, Samuel; Schmidt, Michael; Brodie, Eoin; Jansson, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Biochar and wood are known to decay at different rates in soil, but the longterm effect of char versus unaltered wood inputs on soil carbon dynamics may vary by soil ecosystem and by their sensitivity to warming. We conducted an incubation experiment to explore three questions: (1) How do decomposition rates of char and wood vary with soil type and depth? (2) How vulnerable to warming are these slowly decomposing inputs? And (3) Do char or wood additions increase loss of native soil organic carbon (priming)? Soils from a Mediterranean grassland (Hopland Experimental Research Station, California) and a moist tropical forest (Tabunoco Forest, Puerto Rico) were collected from two soil depths and incubated at ambient temperature (14°C, 20°C for Hopland and Tabonuco respectively) and ambient +6°C. We added 13C-labeled wood and char (made from the wood at 450oC) to the soils and quantified CO2 and 13CO2 fluxes with continuous online carbon isotope measurements using a Cavity Ringdown Spectrometer (Picarro, Inc) for one year. As expected, in all treatments the wood decomposed much (about 50 times) more quickly than did the char amendment. With few exceptions, amendments placed in the surface soil decomposed more quickly than those in deeper soil, and in forest soil faster than that placed in grassland soil, at the same temperature. The two substrates were not very temperature sensitive. Both had Q10 less than 2 and char decomposition in particular was relatively insensitive to warming. Finally, the addition of wood caused a significant increase of roughly 30% in decomposition losses of the native soil organic carbon in the grassland and slightly less in forest. Char had only a slight positive priming effect but had a significant effect on microbial community. These results show that conversion of wood inputs to char through wildfire or intentional management will alter not only the persistence of the carbon in soil but also its temperature response and effect on

  2. Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edsall, Thomas A.; Mac, Michael J.; Opler, Paul A.; Puckett Haecker, Catherine E.; Doran, Peter D.

    1998-01-01

    The Great Lakes region, as defined here, includes the Great Lakes and their drainage basins in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. The region also includes the portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the 21 northernmost counties of Illinois that lie in the Mississippi River drainage basin, outside the floodplain of the river. The region spans about 9º of latitude and 20º of longitude and lies roughly halfway between the equator and the North Pole in a lowland corridor that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Ocean.The Great Lakes are the most prominent natural feature of the region (Fig. 1). They have a combined surface area of about 245,000 square kilometers and are among the largest, deepest lakes in the world. They are the largest single aggregation of fresh water on the planet (excluding the polar ice caps) and are the only glacial feature on Earth visible from the surface of the moon (The Nature Conservancy 1994a).The Great Lakes moderate the region’s climate, which presently ranges from subarctic in the north to humid continental warm in the south (Fig. 2), reflecting the movement of major weather masses from the north and south (U.S. Department of the Interior 1970; Eichenlaub 1979). The lakes act as heat sinks in summer and heat sources in winter and are major reservoirs that help humidify much of the region. They also create local precipitation belts in areas where air masses are pushed across the lakes by prevailing winds, pick up moisture from the lake surface, and then drop that moisture over land on the other side of the lake. The mean annual frost-free period—a general measure of the growing-season length for plants and some cold-blooded animals—varies from 60 days at higher elevations in the north to 160 days in lakeshore areas in the south. The climate influences the general distribution of wild plants and animals in the region and also influences the activities and distribution of the human

  3. Candona alchichica (Podocopida: Candonidae, a new ostracod species from saline, tropical Lake Alchichica, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Cohuo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In North America, most species of the Candonidae family belong to the genus Candona. These species are frequently found in freshwater ecosystems and in sediment sequences, which makes them valuable tools for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Knowledge of Mexican Candona species is limited, however, and scant information exists regarding their taxonomy and ecology. Here we describe Candona alchichica, a new ostracod species we suggest being endemic to Lake Alchichica, central Mexico. The species belongs to the acuminata group of species, based on the presence of 5+1 setae on the second segment of the mandibular palp. It is closely related to C. patzcuaro, C. tahoensis and C. ohioensis, but differs from those species in that the females have an elongated genital field, wide at the base and narrow at the end. Males have elongated hook-like prehensile palps and a particular arrangement of lobes in the hemipenis, i.e., the a-lobe is inclined with a digitiform basal projection, the b-lobe is distally rounded and the h-lobe is square-shaped and exceeding the length of the b-lobe. Candona alchichica n. sp. and C. patzcuaro display very similar shells in length and morphology, which can cause confusion if identification is carried out in the absence of soft parts, a common situation when dealing with carapace and valve remains in sediment cores. Detailed morphometric analyses, however, revealed a clear difference between the valves of the two taxa. Candona alchichica n. sp. has taller valves (p˂0.05, with concave dorsal margin, and with the anterior margin considerably narrower than posterior margin, all characteristics different from C. patzcuaro. Most important, in spite of their similar shape, the two species exhibit contrasting ecological preferences. Candona alchichica n. sp. inhabits clear, cold, saline, oligotrophic waters, whereas C. patzcuaro dwells in turbid, warm, fresh, eutrophic waters. In addition, we include a revision of the

  4. Robust Hadley Circulation Changes and Increasing Global Dryness Due to CO2 Warming from CMIP-5 Model Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, K. M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness under CO2 warming from CMIP-5 model projections. We find a strengthening of the ascending branch of the HC manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, increased high clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200-100 hectopascals) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence, reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among water cycle parameters examined, global dryness has the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide scientific bases for inferring that the observed tend of prolonged droughts in recent decades is likely attributable to greenhouse warming.

  5. Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

    2017-12-01

    We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

  6. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

    2011-01-01

    The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

  7. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    amplitude of cloud feedback is proportional to the cloud cooling effect in the present climate. This effect is influenced by uncertain parameters of model physics which modify intensity of the positive β feedback between cloud radiative cooling, relative humidity and cloud fraction (self-maintenance of low clouds) In order to assess the generality of this feedback mechanism, we perform among several atmospheric CMIP5 models. Those models simulate a robust positive tropical low cloud feedback. The use of seasonal variability to anticipate amplitudes of low-cloud response under global warming, and to design an observational test for their evaluation will be discussed. (author)

  8. Changes in the Global Hydrological Cycle: Lessons from Modeling Lake Levels at the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, D. P.; Morrill, C.

    2011-12-01

    Geologic evidence shows that lake levels in currently arid regions were higher and lakes in currently wet regions were lower during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Current hypotheses used to explain these lake level changes include the thermodynamic hypothesis, in which decreased tropospheric water vapor coupled with patterns of convergence and divergence caused dry areas to become more wet and vice versa, the dynamic hypothesis, in which shifts in the jet stream and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) altered precipitation patterns, and the evaporation hypothesis, in which lake expansions are attributed to reduced evaporation in a colder climate. This modeling study uses the output of four climate models participating in phase 2 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2) as input into a lake energy-balance model, in order to test the accuracy of the models and understand the causes of lake level changes. We model five lakes which include the Great Basin lakes, USA; Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala; Lake Caçó, northern Brazil; Lake Tauca (Titicaca), Bolivia and Peru; and Lake Cari-Laufquen, Argentina. These lakes create a transect through the drylands of North America through the tropics and to the drylands of South America. The models accurately recreate LGM conditions in 14 out of 20 simulations, with the Great Basin lakes being the most robust and Lake Caçó being the least robust, due to model biases in portraying the ITCZ over South America. An analysis of the atmospheric moisture budget from one of the climate models shows that thermodynamic processes contribute most significantly to precipitation changes over the Great Basin, while dynamic processes are most significant for the other lakes. Lake Cari-Laufquen shows a lake expansion that is most likely attributed to reduced evaporation rather than changes in regional precipitation, suggesting that lake levels alone may not be the best indicator of how much precipitation this region

  9. Tropical fish community does not recover 45 years after predator introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe, D M T; De León, L F; González, R; Torchin, M E

    2017-02-01

    Predation is considered to be an important factor structuring natural communities. However, it is often difficult to determine how it may influence long-term, broad-scale, diversity patterns, particularly in diverse tropical systems. Biological introductions can provide powerful insight to test the sustained consequences of predation in natural communities, if pre-introduction data are available. Half a century ago, Zaret and Paine demonstrated strong and immediate community-level effects following the introduction of a novel apex predator (peacock bass, Cichla monoculus) into Lake Gatun, Panama. To test for long-term changes associated with this predator introduction, we followed up on their classic study by replicating historical sampling methods and examining changes in the littoral fish community at two sites in Lake Gatun 45 years post-introduction. To broaden our inference, we complemented this temporal comparison with a spatial analysis, wherein we compared the fish communities from two lakes with and one lake without peacock bass. Comparisons with historical data revealed that the peacock bass remains the most abundant predator in Lake Gatun. Furthermore, the collapse of the littoral prey community observed immediately following the invasion has been sustained over the past 45 years. The mean abundance of native littoral fish is now 96% lower than it was prior to the introduction. Diversity (rarefied species richness) declined by 64% post-introduction, and some native species appear to have been locally extirpated. We observed a similar pattern across invaded and uninvaded lakes: the mean abundance of native fishes was 5-40 times lower in lakes with (Gatun, Alajuela) relative to the lake without peacock bass (Bayano). In particular, small-bodied native fishes (Characidae, Peociliidae), which are common prey of the peacock bass, were more than two orders of magnitude (307 times) less abundant in Gatun and one order of magnitude (28 times) less abundant in

  10. A High-Resolution Biogenic Silica Record From Lake Titicaca, Peru-Bolivia: South American Millennial-Scale Climate Variability From 18-60 Kya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Stevens, L. R.; Baker, P. A.; Seltzer, G. O.

    2004-12-01

    Sediments recovered from a deep basin in Lake Titicaca, Peru-Boliva, were analyzed for biogenic silica (BSi) content by extraction of freeze dried sediments in 1% sodium carbonate. Sediments were dated using an age model developed from multiple 14C dates on bulk sediments. The BSi record shows distinct fluctuations in concentration and accumulation rate from 18 to 60 kya. Multi-taper method spectral analysis reveals a significant millennial-scale component to these fluctuations centered at 1370 years. High BSi accumulation rates correlate with enhanced benthic diatom preservation, suggesting that the BSi record is related to variations in lake water level. Modern-day Lake Titicaca lake level and precipitation are strongly related to northern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperatures, with cooler SSTs related to wetter conditions. Subsequently, the spectral behavior of the GRIP ice core δ 18O record was investigated in order to estimate coherency and linkages between North Atlantic and tropical South American climate. GRIP data exhibit a significant 1370-year spectral peak which comprises approximately 26% of the total variability in the record. Despite a high degree of coherency between millennial-scale periodicities in Lake Titicaca BSi and GRIP δ 18O records, the Lake Titicaca silica record does not show longer term cooling cycles characteristic of D-O cycles found in the GRIP record. Rather, the Lake Titicaca record is highly periodic and more similar in nature to several Antarctic climate proxy records. These results suggest that while South American tropical climate varies in phase with North Atlantic climate, additional forcing mechanisms are manifest in the region which may include tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability.

  11. Influence of permafrost on lake terraces of Lake Heihai (NE Tibetan Plateau)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockot, Gregori; Hartmann, Kai; Wünnemann, Bernd

    2013-04-01

    The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is one of the key regions for climatic global change. Besides the poles the TP is the third highest storage of frozen water in glaciers. Here global warming is three times higher than in the rest of the world. Additionally the TP provides water for billions of people and influences the moisture availability from the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems. During the Holocene extent and intensity of the monsoonal systems changed. Hence, in the last decades, a lot of work was done to reconstruct timing and frequency of monsoonal moisture, to understand the past and give a better forecast for the future. Comparative workings often show very heterogeneous patterns of timing and frequency of the Holocene precipitation and temperature maximum, emphasizing the local importance of catchment dynamics. In this study we present first results of lake Heihai (36°N, 93°15'E, 4500m a.s.l.), situated at the north-eastern border of the TP. The lake is surrounded by a broad band of near-shore lake sediments, attesting a larger lake extent in the past. These sediments were uplifted by permafrost, reaching nowadays heights ca. +8 meters above present lake level. Due to the uplift one of the main inflows was blocked and the whole hydrology of the catchment changed. To quantify the uplift of permafrost Hot Spot Analysis were accomplished at a DEM of the near-shore area. As a result regions of high permafrost uplift and those which mirror the original height of lake ground were revealed. The most obvious uplift took place in the northern and western part of the lake, where the four uplift centers are located. In contrast the southern and eastern areas show a rather degraded pattern (probably by fluvial erosion, thermokarst, etc.). The ancient lake bottom, without permafrost uplift was estimated to be 4-6 meters above the modern lake level. For a better understanding of permafrost interaction inside the terrace bodies a 5m sediment profile was sampled and

  12. Holocene Multi-Decadal to Millennial-Scale Hydrologic Variability on the South American Altiplano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Burns, S.

    2006-12-01

    On orbital timescales, lacustrine sediment records in the tropical central Andes show massive changes in lake level due to mechanisms related to global-scale drivers, varying at precessional timescales. Here we use stable isotopic and diatom records from two lakes in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin to reconstruct multi- decadal to millennial scale precipitation variability during the last 7000 to 8000 years. The records are tightly coupled at multi-decadal to millennial scales with each other and with lake-level fluctuations in Lake Titicaca, indicating that the lakes are recording a regional climate signal. A quantitative reconstruction of precipitation from stable isotopic data indicates that the central Andes underwent significant wet to dry alternations at multi- centennial frequencies with an amplitude of 30 to 40% of total precipitation. A strong millennial-scale component, similar in duration to periods of increased ice rafted debris flux in the North Atlantic, is observed in both lake records, suggesting that tropical North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability may partly control regional precipitation. No clear relationship is evident between these records and the inferred ENSO history from Lago Pallcacocha in the northern tropical Andes. In the instrumental period, regional precipitation variability on inter-annual timescales is clearly influenced by Pacific modes; for example, most El Ninos produce dry and warm conditions in this part of the central Andes. However, on longer timescales, the control of tropical Pacific modes is less clear. Our reconstructions suggest that the cold intervals of the Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation in the central Andes, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation in the southern tropics of South America relative to the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region.

  13. Partitioning of the diffuse attenuation coefficient for photosynthetically available irradiance in a deep dendritic tropical lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LUCIANA P.M. BRANDÃO

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT We studied the effects of particulate and dissolved optically active components on the attenuation of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR in a tropical lake. The temporal and spatial distribution of tripton, Chl-a and aCDOM(440 and their relative contribution to the diffuse PAR attenuation coefficient (Kd was investigated at 21 sites (dry and wet seasons and two intermediate periods and at monthly interval at 1 pelagic site. Higher values of Kd were observed during the mixing period, characterized by a higher concentration of tripton and Chl-a compared to the stratified rainy season. In the spatial sampling PAR attenuation was dominated by tripton absorption/scattering (average relative contribution of 79%, followed by Chl-a (average 11.6%. In the monthly sampling tripton and Chl-a accounted for most of the Kd with relative contributions of 47.8% and 35.6%, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that Chl-a and tripton in combination explained 97% of the monthly variation in Kd (p<0.001, but Chl-a had more influence (higher regression coefficient. Thus, although most of light attenuation was due to tripton, seasonal variations in phytoplankton abundance were responsible for most of the temporal fluctuations in Kd.

  14. Anthropogenic climate change has altered primary productivity in Lake Superior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Beirne, M D; Werne, J P; Hecky, R E; Johnson, T C; Katsev, S; Reavie, E D

    2017-06-09

    Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter many facets of Earth's freshwater resources, especially lacustrine ecosystems. The effects of anthropogenic changes in Lake Superior, which is Earth's largest freshwater lake by area, are not well documented (spatially or temporally) and predicted future states in response to climate change vary. Here we show that Lake Superior experienced a slow, steady increase in production throughout the Holocene using (paleo)productivity proxies in lacustrine sediments to reconstruct past changes in primary production. Furthermore, data from the last century indicate a rapid increase in primary production, which we attribute to increasing surface water temperatures and longer seasonal stratification related to longer ice-free periods in Lake Superior due to anthropogenic climate warming. These observations demonstrate that anthropogenic effects have become a prominent influence on one of Earth's largest, most pristine lacustrine ecosystems.

  15. Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

    2000-01-01

    We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is

  16. A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

  17. Glacial lakes of the Central and Patagonian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Ryan; Glasser, Neil F.; Reynolds, John M.; Harrison, Stephan; Anacona, Pablo Iribarren; Schaefer, Marius; Shannon, Sarah

    2018-03-01

    The prevalence and increased frequency of high-magnitude Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Chilean and Argentinean Andes suggests this region will be prone to similar events in the future as glaciers continue to retreat and thin under a warming climate. Despite this situation, monitoring of glacial lake development in this region has been limited, with past investigations only covering relatively small regions of Patagonia. This study presents new glacial lake inventories for 1986, 2000 and 2016, covering the Central Andes, Northern Patagonia and Southern Patagonia. Our aim was to characterise the physical attributes, spatial distribution and temporal development of glacial lakes in these three sub-regions using Landsat satellite imagery and image datasets available in Google Earth and Bing Maps. Glacial lake water volume was also estimated using an empirical area-volume scaling approach. Results reveal that glacial lakes across the study area have increased in number (43%) and areal extent (7%) between 1986 and 2016. Such changes equate to a glacial lake water volume increase of 65 km3 during the 30-year observation period. However, glacial lake growth and emergence was shown to vary sub-regionally according to localised topography, meteorology, climate change, rate of glacier change and the availability of low gradient ice areas. These and other factors are likely to influence the occurrence of GLOFs in the future. This analysis represents the first large-scale census of glacial lakes in Chile and Argentina and will allow for a better understanding of lake development in this region, as well as, providing a basis for future GLOF risk assessments.

  18. Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Cai, Wenju; Zwiers, Francis W; Kim, Yeon-Hee; Lee, Donghyun

    2016-07-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) has warmed and grown substantially during the past century. The IPWP is Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), has the highest rainfall, and is fundamental to global atmospheric circulation and hydrological cycle. The region has also experienced the world's highest rates of sea-level rise in recent decades, indicating large increases in ocean heat content and leading to substantial impacts on small island states in the region. Previous studies have considered mechanisms for the basin-scale ocean warming, but not the causes of the observed IPWP expansion, where expansion in the Indian Ocean has far exceeded that in the Pacific Ocean. We identify human and natural contributions to the observed IPWP changes since the 1950s by comparing observations with climate model simulations using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Greenhouse gas forcing is found to be the dominant cause of the observed increases in IPWP intensity and size, whereas natural fluctuations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have played a smaller yet significant role. Further, we show that the shape and impact of human-induced IPWP growth could be asymmetric between the Indian and Pacific basins, the causes of which remain uncertain. Human-induced changes in the IPWP have important implications for understanding and projecting related changes in monsoonal rainfall, and frequency or intensity of tropical storms, which have profound socioeconomic consequences.

  19. High temperatures and absence of light affect the hatching of resting eggs of Daphnia in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thécia A.S.V. Paes

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and light are acknowledged as important factors for hatching of resting eggs. The knowledge of how they affect hatching rates of this type of egg is important for the comprehension of the consequences of warming waters in recolonization of aquatic ecosystems dependent on dormant populations. This study aimed at comparing the influence of different temperature and light conditions on hatching rates of Daphnia ambigua andDaphnia laevis resting eggs from tropical environments. The ephippia were collected in the sediment of three aquatic ecosystems, in southeastern Brazil. For each lake, the resting eggs were exposed to temperatures of 20, 24, 28 and 32 °C, under light (12 h photoperiod and dark conditions. The results showed that the absence of light and high temperatures have a negative influence on the hatching rates. Statistical differences for hatching rates were also found when comparing the studied ecosystems (ranging from 0.6 to 31%, indicating the importance of local environmental factors for diapause and maintenance of active populations.

  20. Biodiversity and productivity of Rana Patap Sagar lake a thermo-ecological study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, P.C.; Sharma, L.L.

    2007-01-01

    Rana Pratap Sagar (RPS) in Rajasthan, is a man made fresh water reservoir and is balancing between Gandhi Sagar on upstream and Jawahar sagar on its down stream. On its eastern bank there exists Rawatbhata Site, comprising of multi -nuclear facilities. There are four PHWR units of Rajasthan Atomic Power Station (RAPS) which are in operations, two are under construction and another two are under advanced stage of planning. In addition to nuclear power plants the Site also houses a Heavy Water Plant and other allied facilities such as cobalt facility and waste management facilities. RAPS draws water from RPS lake through a 300 m long conduit pipe located at lake bottom about 20 m below the surface. Duly treated low level radioactive liquid effluents from RAPS facilities are injected to the warmed condenser outlet and then allowed to discharge to RPS in a controlled manner. The warm water is likely to remain at the surface and get mixed with lake water and cooled due to dilutions, evaporation from lake surface and wind currents. The heat release to the RPS lake through condenser outlet may effect the microbiological and water quality parameters, planktonic biodiversity, fish productivity etc. and thus it is imperative to conduct the thermal ecological study to assess the extent of maturation of the water body to identify its present trophic status in terms of eutrophication. This presentation gives the details of thermal ecological studies carried out at Rana Pratap Sagar lake during 2002-2004 under DAE-BRNS project.. The study includes monitoring of several water quality parameters, biological and bacterial parameters and data on thermal stratification in respect of RPS reservoir. The data so obtained were subjected to statistical analysis. The probabilistic and possibilistic approaches have been applied to evaluate ecological risk. The study reveals that there is no adverse effect on RPS water quality owing to receive the warmed effluents from RAPS. Furthermore, it

  1. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

    2018-04-01

    Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  2. Geophysical problems of radiocesium removal from running shallow lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasiuk, N.; Spirkauskaite, N.; Gvozdaite, R. and others

    2002-01-01

    Natural processes of radiocesium removal from three selected running shallow (mean depth -0.7-4.2 m) lakes (Zuvintas, Asavas-Asavelis, Juodis) in Lithuania during 1999-2001 are studied. Lake sediments are of a sapropelic and peat type, rich in organics (47-68 %). 137 Cs activity concentrations in surface sediments varied in the range 100-360 Bq kg -1 . A sum of exchangeable and potentially mobile fractions of 137 Cs activity concentrations in lake sediments is assessed to vary in the range 10-34 %. The 137 CS enrichment coefficient defined as a ratio of annual sums of seasonal values of water-soluble 137 Cs activity concentrations in rivers outflowing from and in flowing to lakes was assessed to be equal for selected lakes from 1.4 to 2.5. A course of seasonal data demonstrates the efficiency of lake self cleaning from radiocesium to be minimum in winter owing to the priority of lake surface flows and the temperature stratification, suppressing the water column vertical mixing. It is suggested that elevated radiocesium activity concentrations in the outflowing rivers during a winter-spring transitional period are due to the presence of lake bottom flows. Lake isothermal stratification, inducing the water column vertical mixing during warm seasons, reinforces lake self cleaning processes. Considerations on the seasonal variations of the depth of the anoxic level in sediments, as well as on the vertical mixing of the surface sediments owing to the methane production, are discussed. (author)

  3. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: Analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subin, Zachary M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Murphy, Lisa N. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Li, Fiyu [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.; Bonfils, Celine [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Div.

    2012-01-15

    We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here) caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  4. Boreal lakes moderate seasonal and diurnal temperature variation and perturb atmospheric circulation: analyses in the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J. Riley

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We used a lake thermal physics model recently coupled into the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1 to study the effects of lake distribution in present and future climate. Under present climate, correcting the large underestimation of lake area in CESM1 (denoted CCSM4 in the configuration used here caused 1 °C spring decreases and fall increases in surface air temperature throughout large areas of Canada and the US. Simulated summer surface diurnal air temperature range decreased by up to 4 °C, reducing CCSM4 biases. These changes were much larger than those resulting from prescribed lake disappearance in some present-day permafrost regions under doubled-CO2 conditions. Correcting the underestimation of lake area in present climate caused widespread high-latitude summer cooling at 850 hPa. Significant remote changes included decreases in the strength of fall Southern Ocean westerlies. We found significantly different winter responses when separately analysing 45-yr subperiods, indicating that relatively long simulations are required to discern the impacts of surface changes on remote conditions. We also investigated the surface forcing of lakes using idealised aqua-planet experiments which showed that surface changes of 2 °C in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics could cause substantial changes in precipitation and winds in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Shifts in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone were opposite in sign to those predicted by some previous studies. Zonal mean circulation changes were consistent in character but much larger than those occurring in the lake distribution experiments, due to the larger magnitude and more uniform surface forcing in the idealised aqua-planet experiments.

  5. Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J.; Su, H.

    2004-05-01

    Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

  6. Hydro biological investigations of lake Drukshiai

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazheikaite, S.; Sinkevichiene, Z.; Marchiulioniene, D.; Astrauskas, A.; Barshiene, J.

    1998-01-01

    Purposes of this research were to investigate changes in the physical, chemical and tropic conditions of Lake Drukshiai caused by the combined effect of Ignalina NPP and how it effects on structures and function of biocenoses; to estimate the influence of phytocenoses, zoocenoses and bacteriocenoses on the quality of water in Lake Drukshiai; to estimate the eco toxicological state of Lake Drukshiai. According to the complex hydro biological investigations on Lake Drukshiai - Ignalina NPP cooler great changes in planktonic organism community, tendencies of those changes in different ecological zones were evaluated in 1993 - 1997. The amount of species of most dominant planktonic organisms in 1993 - 1997 decreased 2-3 times in comparison with that before Ignalina NPP operation: phytoplankton from 116 to 40 - 50, zooplankton - from 233 to 139. The organic matter increasing tendency was determined in bottom sediments of the lake. The highest amount of it was evaluated in the south - eastern part of the lake. 69 water macrophyte species were found in bottom sediments during the investigation period. 16 species were not found in this lake earlier. Abundance of filamentous green algae was registered.The rates of fish communities successional transformation were ten times in excess of those of the given processes in natural lakes. Moreover the comparison of results on Lake Drukshiai bioindication analysis with changes of comparable bio markers which were obtained from other water systems of Lithuania, Switzerland, Sweden and Poland, including those with active nuclear power plants in their environment was carried out. It was determined that the functional and structural changes in Lake Drukshiai biota are mostly caused by chemical pollution. It was found out that the frequency of cytogenetic damage emerged as a specific radionuclide - caused effect in aquatic organisms inhabiting Lake Drukshiai, is slightly above the background level and is 5 times lower than the same

  7. Recruitment variability of alewives in Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madenjian, C.P.; Hook, T.O.; Rutherford, E.S.; Mason, D.M.; Croley, T.E.; Szalai, E.B.; Bence, J.R.

    2005-01-01

    We used a long-term series of observations on alewife Alosa pseudoharengus abundance that was based on fall bottom-trawl catches to assess the importance of various abiotic and biotic factors on alewife recruitment in Lake Michigan during 1962–2002. We first fit a basic Ricker spawner–recruit model to the lakewide biomass estimates of age-3 recruits and the corresponding spawning stock size; we then fit models for all possible combinations of the following four external variables added to the basic model: an index of salmonine predation on an alewife year-class, an index for the spring–summer water temperatures experienced by alewives during their first year in the lake, an index of the severity of the first winter experienced by alewives in the lake, and an index of lake productivity during an alewife year-class's second year in the lake. Based on an information criterion, the best model for alewife recruitment included indices of salmonine predation and spring–summer water temperatures as external variables. Our analysis corroborated the contention that a decline in alewife abundance during the 1970s and early 1980s in Lake Michigan was driven by salmonine predation. Furthermore, our findings indicated that the extraordinarily warm water temperatures during the spring and summer of 1998 probably led to a moderately high recruitment of age-3 alewives in 2001, despite abundant salmonines.

  8. Assessment of microcystins in lake water and fish (Mugilidae, Liza sp.) in the largest Spanish coastal lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romo, Susana; Fernández, Francisca; Ouahid, Youness; Barón-Sola, Ángel

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacteria dominance and cyanotoxin production can become major threats to humans and aquatic life, especially in warm shallow lakes, which are often dominated by cyanobacteria. This study investigates the occurrence and distribution of microcystins (MCYST) in water, cell-bound and in the tissues of the commercial mugilid Liza sp. in the largest, coastal, Spanish Mediterranean lake (Albufera of Valencia). This is the first report concerning microcystin accumulation in tissues of mugilid fish species. Considerable amounts of microcystins were found in the water and seston, which correlated with development of Microcystis aeruginosa populations in the lake. The MCYST concentrations found in Lake Albufera (mean 1.7 and 17 μg/L and maximum 16 and 120 μg/L in water and seston, respectively) exceeded by one to two orders of magnitude the guideline levels proposed by the World Health Organization and were higher than that reported in other lakes of the Mediterranean zone. The presence of MCYST was found in all the fishes studied and accumulated differently among tissues of the commercial species Liza sp. Toxin accumulation in fish tissues showed that although the target organ for MCYST was the liver, high concentrations of microcystins were also found in other analysed tissues (liver>intestine>gills>muscle). Human tolerable daily intake for microcystins is assessed relative to the WHO guidelines, and potential toxicological risks for humans, wildlife and related ecosystems of the lake are discussed.

  9. The structuring role of submerged macrophytes in a large subtropical shallow lake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Finkler Ferreira, Tiago; Crossetti, Luciane O.; Motta Marques, David M.L.; Cardoso, Luciana; Fragoso, Carlos Ruberto; Nes, van Egbert H.

    2018-01-01

    It is well known that submerged macrophytes exert positive feedback effects that enhance the water transparency, stabilizing the clear-water state in shallow temperate lakes. However, the structuring effect of macrophytes on the food web of subtropical and tropical ecosystems is still poorly

  10. Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mella-Flores, D.; Mazard, S.; Humily, F.; Partensky, F.; Mahé, F.; Bariat, L.; Courties, C.; Marie, D.; Ras, J.; Mauriac, R.; Jeanthon, C.; Mahdi Bendif, E.; Ostrowski, M.; Scanlan, D. J.; Garczarek, L.

    2011-09-01

    Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea, which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics, are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated, for instance, by the introduction of (sub)tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected, especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have significantly risen over the last 25 years (0.50 ± 0.11 °C in average per decade, P Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, only a few sequences of clade II, a group typical of warm waters, were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their (sub)tropical counterparts.

  11. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  12. Global warming influence on climatic variables and thermal comfort index in Paraíba state, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Gustavo de Assis; Instituto Agronômico de Pernambuco; Souza, Bonifácio Benicio de; Universidade Federal Campina Grande; Silva, Elisângela Maria Nunes da; UFCG

    2015-01-01

    The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases originated from burning fossil fuels, along with breeding, been appointed as the main causes of global climate change resulting from global warming in earth's atmosphere. These changes can cause serious impacts on the lives and livestock production mainly in tropical regions. Therefore, the aim with this work was to evaluate the effect of global warming on the climatological variables, thermal comfort index and animal production in the sta...

  13. THERMODYNAMICS OF PARTIALLY FROZEN COOLING LAKES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garrett, A.; Casterline, M.; Salvaggio, C.

    2010-01-05

    The Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) collected visible, SWIR, MWIR and LWIR imagery of the Midland (Michigan) Cogeneration Ventures Plant from aircraft during the winter of 2008-2009. RIT also made ground-based measurements of lake water and ice temperatures, ice thickness and atmospheric variables. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) used the data collected by RIT and a 3-D hydrodynamic code to simulate the Midland cooling lake. The hydrodynamic code was able to reproduce the time distribution of ice coverage on the lake during the entire winter. The simulations and data show that the amount of ice coverage is almost linearly proportional to the rate at which heat is injected into the lake (Q). Very rapid melting of ice occurs when strong winds accelerate the movement of warm water underneath the ice. A snow layer on top of the ice acts as an insulator and decreases the rate of heat loss from the water below the ice to the atmosphere above. The simulated ice cover on the lake was not highly sensitive to the thickness of the snow layer. The simplicity of the relationship between ice cover and Q and the weak responses of ice cover to snow depth over the ice are probably attributable to the negative feedback loop that exists between ice cover and heat loss to the atmosphere.

  14. Steady state of phytoplankton assemblage in tropical Lake Catemaco (Mexico)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Komárková, Jaroslava; Tavera, R.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 502, - (2003), s. 187-196 ISSN 0018-8158. [Workshop of the International Association of Phytoplankton Taxonomy and Acology /13./. Castelbuono, 00.09.2002] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK6005114 Keywords : lake Catemaco * phytoplankton * food web Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.720, year: 2003

  15. Interfacing a one-dimensional lake model with a single-column atmospheric model: 2. Thermal response of the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland under a 2 × CO2 global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perroud, Marjorie; Goyette, StéPhane

    2012-06-01

    In the companion to the present paper, the one-dimensional k-ɛ lake model SIMSTRAT is coupled to a single-column atmospheric model, nicknamed FIZC, and an application of the coupled model to the deep Lake Geneva, Switzerland, is described. In this paper, the response of Lake Geneva to global warming caused by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (i.e., 2 × CO2) is investigated. Coupling the models allowed for feedbacks between the lake surface and the atmosphere and produced changes in atmospheric moisture and cloud cover that further modified the downward radiation fluxes. The time evolution of atmospheric variables as well as those of the lake's thermal profile could be reproduced realistically by devising a set of adjustable parameters. In a "control" 1 × CO2 climate experiment, the coupled FIZC-SIMSTRAT model demonstrated genuine skills in reproducing epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures, with annual mean errors and standard deviations of 0.25°C ± 0.25°C and 0.3°C ± 0.15°C, respectively. Doubling the CO2 concentration induced an atmospheric warming that impacted the lake's thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes mainly in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. During summer, reduced cloud cover resulted in an increase in the annual net solar radiation budget. A larger water vapor deficit at the air-water interface induced a cooling effect in the lake.

  16. Tropical Andean ecosystems and the need to keep warming limits below a +1.5°C threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Carrascal, D.; Herzog, S. K.; Guitierrez Lagoueyte, M. E.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Cuevas-Moreno, J.; del Valle, J. I.; Andreu-Hayles, L.; Herrera, D. A.; Martínez, R.

    2017-12-01

    Long-term climate change and rapid land-use change are synergistically threatening the integrity and functioning of tropical Andean ecosystems. The main goal of our research was to integrate climate change projections, biodiversity data and anthropogenically driven ecosystem disruption assessments to quantify the vulnerability of Andean ecosystems and species to global change at a local scale. We merged discernible trends in local quality-controlled weather station data with reanalysis data, as well as with historical and prospective simulation outputs of five well-known GCMs to assess a long-term context for the analysis of climate change exposure (temperature severity intervals). Individual, medium-term, multi-member GCM simulations included: altitude-corrected 2046-2065 (IPCC-AR4) climate change scenarios for the A1B emission scenario; and spatially-downscaled 2040-2069 (IPCC-AR5) projections for the RCP4.5. Previous studies reported mean annual temperature anomaly intervals that resulted in exceedingly high thresholds: the lowest severity interval ( +2.71°C). The least severe interval extended up to the threshold widely recognized as `dangerous' climate change, thereby leading to an underestimation of the true vulnerability of Andean species. Our analyses suggest that temperature anomalies for the full extent of the tropical Andes will likely range from low ( +2.61°C), exceeding the threshold of 'natural' climate variability (+1.78°C). Our results suggest that most species that were used as proxies of ecosystem vulnerabilities will likely experience overall low-to-medium-to-high temperature increases. Since many of them have potentially high sensitivity to such long-term changes, Andean species will likely experience greatly increases in vulnerability. The already-disrupted Andean ecosystems will suffer a further climatic stress, which will worsen the well-known detrimental synergies between climate and land-use changes. There is an imperative need to

  17. Sensitivity of South American tropical climate to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: focus on teleconnections with tropics and extratropics (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, M.; Kageyama, M.; Roche, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    dynamical equilibrium due to both reduced GHG and land ice sheets. We also show that the overall tropical Pacific circulation response to land ice albedo alone consists in a substantial thermo-dynamical stabilisation of the equatorial atmosphere. The upper troposphere warming spreading out from South East Central Pacific, analogous to the atmosphere response to El-Niño conditions, results in enhanced rainfall over Nordeste and Southeastern Brazil. Such tropics-tropics teleconnection is essential to explain the moistening of the southern tropics, amplifying thereby the influence of the extratropical atmosphere on the LGM tropical climate.

  18. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  19. Recent decrease in typhoon destructive potential and global warming implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I-I; Chan, Johnny C.L.

    2015-01-01

    Typhoons (tropical cyclones) severely impact the half-billion population of the Asian Pacific. Intriguingly, during the recent decade, typhoon destructive potential (Power Dissipation Index, PDI) has decreased considerably (by ∼35%). This decrease, paradoxically, has occurred despite the increase in typhoon intensity and ocean warming. Using the method proposed by Emanuel (in 2007), we show that the stronger negative contributions from typhoon frequency and duration, decrease to cancel the positive contribution from the increasing intensity, controlling the PDI. Examining the typhoons' environmental conditions, we find that although the ocean condition became more favourable (warming) in the recent decade, the atmospheric condition ‘worsened' at the same time. The ‘worsened' atmospheric condition appears to effectively overpower the ‘better' ocean conditions to suppress PDI. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling. PMID:25990561

  20. Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

  1. Climate regulates alpine lake ice cover phenology and aquatic ecosystem structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, Daniel L.; Caine, Nel; McKnight, Diane M.; Williams, Mark W.; Hell, Katherina; Miller, Matthew P.; Hart, Sarah J.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.

    2016-01-01

    High-elevation aquatic ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, yet relatively few records are available to characterize shifts in ecosystem structure or their underlying mechanisms. Using a long-term dataset on seven alpine lakes (3126 to 3620 m) in Colorado, USA, we show that ice-off dates have shifted seven days earlier over the past 33 years and that spring weather conditions – especially snowfall – drive yearly variation in ice-off timing. In the most well-studied lake, earlier ice-off associated with increases in water residence times, thermal stratification, ion concentrations, dissolved nitrogen, pH, and chlorophyll-a. Mechanistically, low spring snowfall and warm temperatures reduce summer stream flow (increasing lake residence times) but enhance melting of glacial and permafrost ice (increasing lake solute inputs). The observed links among hydrological, chemical, and biological responses to climate factors highlight the potential for major shifts in the functioning of alpine lakes due to forecasted climate change.

  2. Effects of global warming on floods and droughts in the Caribbean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Kailas

    2004-01-01

    The Caribbean islands stretch in an arc from Cuba, south of Florida, to Trinidad and Tobago, north of the South American coast. The islands range in size from 100,000 square kilometers to 100 square kilometers, with populations ranging from ten million to less than ten thousand people. There is a wide range of rainfall in the region, occurring mainly from the Inter-Tropical convergence Zone, Tropical Waves and Hurricanes. There are also extended periods of droughts in the dry season. As a result the islands suffer from droughts as well as floods. These phenomena can have devastating results on the economies of the islands, resulting in extreme hardships for the population as well as forced shifting of population centers. Change of precipitation patterns as a result of Global warming can only worsen the situation. In this paper the author attempts an investigation into the effects of global warming and the resulting impacts in terms of droughts, floods on the Caribbean islands and on coastal areas of continental countries in the Caribbean. Vulnerability and risks are also investigated in terms of these phenomena. (Author)

  3. Glacial-interglacial variations of microbial communities in permafrost and lake deposits in the Siberian Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangelsdorf, Kai; Bischoff, Juliane; Gattinger, Andreas; Wagner, Dirk

    2013-04-01

    The Artic regions are expected to be very sensitive to the currently observed climate change. When permafrost is thawing, the stored carbon becomes available again for microbial degradation, forming a potential source for the generation of carbon dioxide and methane with their positive feedback effect on the climate warming. For the prediction of future climate evolution it is, therefore, important to improve our knowledge about the microbial-driven greenhouse gas dynamics in the Siberian Arctic and their response to glacial-interglacial changes in the past. Sample material was drilled on Kurungnahk Island (Russian-German LENA expedition) located in the southern part of the Lena delta and in lake El'gygytgyn (ICDP-project) in the eastern part of Siberia. The Kurungnahk samples comprise Late Pleistocene to Holocene deposits, whereas the lake El'gygytgyn samples cover Middle to Late Pleistocene sediments. Samples were investigated applying a combined biogeochemical and microbiological approach. The methane profile of the Kurungnahk core reveals highest methane contents in the warm and wet Holocene and Late Pleistocene (LP) deposits and correlates largly to the organic carbon (TOC) contents. Archaeol concentrations, being a biomarker for past methanogenic archaea, are also high during the warm and wet Holocene and LP intervals and low during the cold and dry LP periods. This indicates that part of the methane might be produced and trapped in the past. However, biomarkers for living microorganisms (bacteria and archaea) and microbial activity measurements of methanogens point, especially, for the Holocene to a viable archaeal community, indicating a possible in-situ methane production. Furthermore, warm/wet-cold/dry climate cycles are recorded in the archaeal diversity as revealed by genetic fingerprint analysis. Although the overlying lake water buffers the temperature effect on the lake sediments, which never became permafrost, the bacterial and archaeal biomarker

  4. Soil microbial responses to climate warming in Northern Andean alpine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallery, R. E.; Lasso, E.

    2017-12-01

    The historically cooler temperatures and waterlogged soils of tropical alpine grasslands (páramo) have resulted in low decomposition rates and a large buildup of organic matter, making páramo one of the most important carbon sinks in tropical biomes. The climatic factors that favored the carbon accumulation are changing, and as a result páramo could play a disproportionate role in driving climate feedbacks through increased carbon released from these large soil carbon stores. Open top chamber warming experiments were established in the Colombian Andes in 2016 to quantify the magnitude of climate change on carbon balance and identify microbial and plant traits that regulate these impacts. Two focal sites differ in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and plant community richness. Heterotrophic respiration (RH,) was measured from soil cores incubated at temperatures representing current and projected warming. The warming effect on RH was sensitive to soil moisture, which could reflect shifts in microbial community composition and/or extracellular enzyme production or efficiency as soils dry. Bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities in ambient and warmed plots were measured through high-throughput amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA and ITS1 rRNA gene regions. Communities showed strong spatial structuring both within and among páramo, reflecting the topographic heterogeneity of these ecosystems. Significant differences in relative abundance of dominant microbial taxa between páramo could be largely explained by soil bulk density, water holding capacity, and non-vascular plant cover. Phototrophs common to anoxic soils (e.g., Rhodospirillaceae, Hyphomicrobiaceae) were abundant. Taxa within Euryarchaeota were recovered, suggesting methanogenesis potential. Exploration of the magnitude and temperature sensitivity of methane flux is needed in these seasonally anoxic soils whose dynamics could have significant implications for the global climate system.

  5. Lake Malawi cichlid evolution along a benthic/limnetic axis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulsey, C D; Roberts, R J; Loh, Y-H E; Rupp, M F; Streelman, J T

    2013-07-01

    Divergence along a benthic to limnetic habitat axis is ubiquitous in aquatic systems. However, this type of habitat divergence has largely been examined in low diversity, high latitude lake systems. In this study, we examined the importance of benthic and limnetic divergence within the incredibly species-rich radiation of Lake Malawi cichlid fishes. Using novel phylogenetic reconstructions, we provided a series of hypotheses regarding the evolutionary relationships among 24 benthic and limnetic species that suggests divergence along this axis has occurred multiple times within Lake Malawi cichlids. Because pectoral fin morphology is often associated with divergence along this habitat axis in other fish groups, we investigated divergence in pectoral fin muscles in these benthic and limnetic cichlid species. We showed that the eight pectoral fin muscles and fin area generally tended to evolve in a tightly correlated manner in the Lake Malawi cichlids. Additionally, we found that larger pectoral fin muscles are strongly associated with the independent evolution of the benthic feeding habit across this group of fish. Evolutionary specialization along a benthic/limnetic axis has occurred multiple times within this tropical lake radiation and has produced repeated convergent matching between exploitation of water column habitats and locomotory morphology.

  6. Simulation of deep ventilation in Crater Lake, Oregon, 1951–2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tamara M.; Wherry, Susan A.; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Girdner, Scott F

    2016-05-04

    The frequency of deep ventilation events in Crater Lake, a caldera lake in the Oregon Cascade Mountains, was simulated in six future climate scenarios, using a 1-dimensional deep ventilation model (1DDV) that was developed to simulate the ventilation of deep water initiated by reverse stratification and subsequent thermobaric instability. The model was calibrated and validated with lake temperature data collected from 1994 to 2011. Wind and air temperature data from three general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways were used to simulate the change in lake temperature and the frequency of deep ventilation events in possible future climates. The lumped model air2water was used to project lake surface temperature, a required boundary condition for the lake model, based on air temperature in the future climates.The 1DDV model was used to simulate daily water temperature profiles through 2099. All future climate scenarios projected increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deep ventilation events. The least extreme scenario projected the frequency of deep ventilation events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in current conditions to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario considered projected the frequency of deep ventilation events to be about 1 in 7.7 years by 2100. All scenarios predicted that the temperature of the entire water column will be greater than 4 °C for increasing lengths of time in the future and that the conditions required for thermobaric instability induced mixing will become rare or non-existent.The disruption of deep ventilation by itself does not provide a complete picture of the potential ecological and water quality consequences of warming climate to Crater Lake. Estimating the effect of warming climate on deep water oxygen depletion and water clarity will require careful modeling studies to combine the physical mixing processes affected by

  7. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

    2014-01-23

    In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

  8. Autumn Cooling of Western East Antarctica Linked to the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clem, Kyle R.; Renwick, James A.; McGregor, James

    2018-01-01

    Over the past 60 years, the climate of East Antarctica cooled while portions of West Antarctica were among the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. The East Antarctic cooling is attributed to a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and a strengthening of the westerlies, while West Antarctic warming is tied to zonally asymmetric circulation changes forced by the tropics. This study finds recent (post-1979) surface cooling of East Antarctica during austral autumn to also be tied to tropical forcing, namely, an increase in La Niña events. The recent increase in La Niña conditions forces a Rossby wave into the Southern Hemisphere that increases anticyclonic circulation over the South Atlantic. The South Atlantic anticyclone is associated with cold air advection, weakened northerlies, and increased sea ice concentrations across the western East Antarctic coast, which has increased the rate of cooling at Novolazarevskaya and Syowa stations after 1979. This enhanced cooling over western East Antarctica is tied more broadly to a zonally asymmetric temperature trend pattern across East Antarctica during autumn that is consistent with a tropically forced Rossby wave rather than a SAM pattern; the positive SAM pattern is associated with ubiquitous cooling across East Antarctica, which is not seen in temperature observations after 1979. We conclude that El Niño-Southern Oscillation-related circulation anomalies, particularly zonal asymmetries that locally enhance meridional wind, are an important component of East Antarctic climate variability during autumn, and future changes in tropical Pacific climate will likely have implications for East Antarctica.

  9. Long-term Simulation Study about the Impact of submerse Macrophytes on thermal Stratification Dynamics and Transport Processes in an extreme shallow water lake - Lake Federsee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Thomas; Pöschke, Franziska; Pflugbeil, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    temperature profiles shows that the lake nevertheless very shallow undergoes periods of distinct and stable thermal stratification which can last up to 10 days giving the right meteorological conditions (calm and warm). The overall vertical temperature gradients are in general stronger in "warm" years than in "cold" years. Furthermore we find most pronounced vertical temperature gradients during summer time whereas during months with smaller positive heat exchange temperature gradients are not as strong. Additionally the influence of the submerse macrophyte population on both - general circulation processes and the vertical mixing processes in the lake - are discussed. It is shown by numerical simulation studies that both - circulation pattern and mixing processes - are influenced severely by macrophytes in the lake slowing down the 3-dim flow field and decreasing vertical mixing processes leading to more and more pronounced stable stratified conditions in the lake.

  10. Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Hosking

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a climate resolution (N216, ~0.83°×~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

  11. A stable isotope-based approach to tropical dendroclimatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Michael N.; Schrag, Daniel P.

    2004-08-01

    We describe a strategy for development of chronological control in tropical trees lacking demonstrably annual ring formation, using high resolution δ 18O measurements in tropical wood. The approach applies existing models of the oxygen isotopic composition of alpha-cellulose (Roden et al., 2000), a rapid method for cellulose extraction from raw wood (Brendel et al., 2000), and continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry (Brenna et al., 1998) to develop proxy chronological, rainfall and growth rate estimates from tropical trees lacking visible annual ring structure. Consistent with model predictions, pilot datasets from the temperate US and Costa Rica having independent chronological control suggest that observed cyclic isotopic signatures of several permil (SMOW) represent the annual cycle of local rainfall and relative humidity. Additional data from a plantation tree of known age from ENSO-sensitive northwestern coastal Peru suggests that the 1997-8 ENSO warm phase event was recorded as an 8‰ anomaly in the δ 18O of α-cellulose. The results demonstrate reproducibility of the stable isotopic chronometer over decades, two different climatic zones, and three tropical tree genera, and point to future applications in paleoclimatology.

  12. Late Quaternary Paleoclimatic History of Tropical South America From Drilling Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Seltzer, G. O.; Rigsby, C. A.; Lowenstein, T. K.; Ku, R.

    2003-12-01

    Seven drill cores were recovered from Lake Titicaca during the NSF/ICDP/DOSECC drilling expedition of 2001. Sub-lake floor drilling depths ranged from 53 to 139 m; water depths ranged from 40 to 232 m; recoveries ranged from 75 to 112 percent. Our most detailed multi-proxy analyses to date have been done on Core 2B raised from the central basin of the lake from 232 m water depth, drilled to 139.26 m sub-lakefloor with 140.61 m of total sediment recovered (101 percent). A basal age of 200 Ka is estimated by linear extrapolation from radiocarbon measurements in the upper 25 m of core; Ar-Ar dating of interbedded ashes and U/Th dating of abiogenic aragonites are underway. The volume and lake level of Lake Titicaca have undergone large changes several times during the late Quaternary. Proxies for these water level changes (each of different fidelity) include the ratio of planktonic-to-benthic diatoms, sedimentary carbonate content, and stable isotopic content of organic carbon. The most recent of these changes, has been described previously from earlier piston cores. In the early and middle Holocene the lake fell below its outlet to 85 m below modern level, lake salinity increased several-fold, and the Salar de Uyuni, which receives overflow from Titicaca, dessicated. In contrast, Lake Titicaca was deep, fresh, and overflowing (southward to the Salar de Uyuni) throughout the last glacial maximum from prior to 25,000 BP to at least 15,000 BP. According to extrapolated ages, the penultimate major lowstand of Lake Titicaca occurred prior to 60,000 BP, when seismic evidence indicates that lake level was about 200 m lower than present. Near the end of this lowstand, the lake also became quite saline. There are at least three, and possibly more, older lowstands, each separated temporally by periods in which the lake freshened dramatically and overflowed. These results will be compared with results from previous drilling in the Salar de Uyuni.

  13. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  14. El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

    2009-01-01

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

  15. Climate warming and interannual variability of phytoplankton phenology in the Northern Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Gittings, John

    2016-12-01

    In agreement with global patterns of climate change and increasing temperatures in the tropical oceans, the Northern Red Sea (NRS) has been warming over the last few decades. Using 18 years of remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a data (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass), we investigate the potential impacts of climate warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in the Northern Red Sea by exploring the mechanistic links with the regional physical environment. The results of the analysis reveal that, in accordance with other tropical ecosystems, phytoplankton biomass in the NRS will decrease in response to warmer climate scenarios. This is attributed to lower heat fluxes (heat loss to the atmosphere) during the bloom period, and enhanced vertical stratification, which prevents vertical mixing of nutrients into the euphotic layer. In addition, we show that during warmer conditions (when heat fluxes are weakened), the winter bloom initiates significantly later (by up to 10 weeks) and its duration is considerably reduced. The biological implications of alterations to phytoplankton phenology may include increased larval mortality of pelagic species, reduced recruitment, fisheries impacts and changes to community structure.

  16. A long-term study on crustacean plankton of a shallow tropical lake: the role of invertebrate predation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marlene S. Arcifa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary factor that governs the size and species composition of zooplankton is still a controversial issue and temperature is considered the main factor responsible for latitudinal differences. In waters with a narrow temperature range, such as in the tropics, predation may be a more important factor. Nearly three decades of intermittent studies of the crustacean plankton in a shallow tropical lake revealed that the main event that led to their restructuring was the appearance of a second predator, the water mite Krendowskia sp. The new predator and larvae of the dipteran Chaoborus brasiliensis Theobald exerted a combined, although asymmetrical effect on microcrustaceans. The period when the mite was detected was followed by the restructuring of the crustacean plankton community. Predation by these two invertebrates emerged as the factor responsible for community changes, involving an increased contribution of copepods and decreases in the relative abundance of smaller cladoceran species. In the short term, the mite caused a decrease in species richness and the annual mean instantaneous composition of cladocerans, a predominance of large-sized species (Daphnia ambigua Scourfield and Daphnia gessneri Herbst and the virtual disappearance of small species (e.g., Bosmina tubicen Brehm. The long-term impact resulted in increased species richness and the dominance of large and medium-sized cladocerans, such as D. gessneri and Ceriodaphnia richardi Sars. The larger body size of three cladocerans, the two Daphnia species and B. tubicen, in the long term, may be a response to the dominant predator, Chaoborus. The seasonal variation in the predator abundance, mainly Chaoborus larvae, allowed the prey to recover during the cool season. The copepods Tropocyclops prasinus meridionalis (Fischer and Thermocyclops decipiens Kiefer were less affected by predation than the cladocerans; their contribution to the crustacean plankton increased 12-28% after the

  17. Anomalous cold in the Pangaean tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soreghan, G.S.; Soreghan, M.J.; Poulsen, C.J.; Young, R.A.; Eble, C.F.; Sweet, D.E.; Davogustto, O.C.

    2008-01-01

    The late Paleozoic archives the greatest glaciation of the Phanerozoic. Whereas high-latitude Gondwanan strata preserve widespread evidence for continental ice, the Permo-Carboniferous tropics have long been considered analogous to today's: warm and shielded from the highlatitude cold. Here, we report on glacial and periglacial indicators that record episodes of freezing continental temperatures in western equatorial Pangaea. An exhumed glacial valley and associated deposits record direct evidence for glaciation that extended to low paleoelevations in the ancestral Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the Permo-Carboniferous archives the only known occurrence of widespread tropical loess in Earth's history; the volume, chemistry, and provenance of this loess(ite) is most consistent with glacial derivation. Together with emerging indicators for cold elsewhere in low-latitude Pangaea, these results suggest that tropical climate was not buffered from the high latitudes and may record glacial-interglacial climate shifts of very large magnitude. Coupled climate-ice sheet model simulations demonstrate that low atmospheric CO2 and solar luminosity alone cannot account for such cold, and that other factors must be considered in attempting to explain this 'best-known' analogue to our present Earth. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

  18. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in

  19. Lake level fluctuations boost toxic cyanobacterial "oligotrophic blooms".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiana Callieri

    Full Text Available Global warming has been shown to strongly influence inland water systems, producing noticeable increases in water temperatures. Rising temperatures, especially when combined with widespread nutrient pollution, directly favour the growth of toxic cyanobacteria. Climate changes have also altered natural water level fluctuations increasing the probability of extreme events as dry periods followed by heavy rains. The massive appearance of Dolichospermum lemmermannii ( = planktonic Anabaena, a toxic species absent from the pelagic zone of the subalpine oligotrophic Lake Maggiore before 2005, could be a consequence of the unusual fluctuations of lake level in recent years. We hypothesized that these fluctuations may favour the cyanobacterium as result of nutrient pulses from the biofilms formed in the littoral zone when the lake level is high. To help verify this, we exposed artificial substrates in the lake, and evaluated their nutrient enrichment and release after desiccation, together with measurements of fluctuations in lake level, precipitation and D. lemmermannii population. The highest percentage of P release and the lowest C:P molar ratio of released nutrients coincided with the summer appearance of the D. lemmermannii bloom. The P pulse indicates that fluctuations in level counteract nutrient limitation in this lake and it is suggested that this may apply more widely to other oligotrophic lakes. In view of the predicted increase in water level fluctuations due to climate change, it is important to try to minimize such fluctuations in order to mitigate the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms.

  20. Water Balance and Level Change of Lake Babati, Tanzania: Sensitivity to Hydroclimatic Forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René P. Mbanguka

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We develop and present a novel integrated water balance model that accounts for lake water—groundwater interactions, and apply it to the semi-closed freshwater Lake Babati system, Northern Tanzania, East Africa. The model was calibrated and used to evaluate the lake level sensitivity to changes in key hydro-climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, humidity and cloudiness. The lake response to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5 output on possible future climate outcomes was evaluated, an essential basis in understanding future water security and flooding risk in the region. Results show high lake level sensitivity to cloudiness. Increased focus on cloud fraction measurement and interpretation could likely improve projections of lake levels and surface water availability. Modelled divergent results on the future (21st century development of Lake Babati can be explained by the precipitation output variability of CMIP5 models being comparable to the precipitation change needed to drive the water balance model from lake dry-out to overflow; this condition is likely shared with many other East African lake systems. The developed methodology could be useful in investigations on change-driving processes in complex climate—drainage basin—lake systems, which are needed to support sustainable water resource planning in data scarce tropical Africa.

  1. How Hot was Africa during the Mid-Holocene? Reexamining Africa's Thermal History via integrated Climate and Proxy System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dee, S.; Russell, J. M.; Morrill, C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century. Reconstructions of African temperature since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) have made fundamental contributions to our understanding of past, present, and future climate and can help constrain predictions from general circulation models (GCMs). However, many of these reconstructions are based on proxies of lake temperature, so the confounding influences of lacustrine processes may complicate our interpretations of past changes in tropical climate. These proxy-specific uncertainties require robust methodology for data-model comparison. We develop a new proxy system model (PSM) for paleolimnology to facilitate data-model comparison and to fully characterize uncertainties in climate reconstructions. Output from GCMs are used to force the PSM to simulate lake temperature, hydrology, and associated proxy uncertainties. We compare reconstructed East African lake and air temperatures in individual records and in a stack of 9 lake records to those predicted by our PSM forced with Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) simulations, focusing on the mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP). We additionally employ single-forcing transient climate simulations from TraCE (10 kyr to 4 kyr B.P. and historical), as well as 200-yr time slice simulations from CESM1.0 to run the lake PSM. We test the sensitivity of African climate change during the mid-Holocene to orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice-sheet forcing in single-forcing simulations, and investigate dynamical hypotheses for these changes. Reconstructions of tropical African temperature indicate 1-2ºC warming during the mid-Holocene relative to the present, similar to changes predicted in the coming decades. However, most climate models underestimate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data (Fig. 1, 6kyr B.P.). We investigate this discrepancy using the new lake PSM and climate model simulations, with attention to the (potentially non

  2. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Harrison

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  3. Numerical simulation of impurity transport in Lake Baikal during the summer period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsydenov, Bair O.

    2017-11-01

    The distributions of impurities obtained as a result of numerical modeling on the Srednyaya arm (Selenga River mouth)- Cape Golyi cross-section of Lake Baikal, Siberia, Russia, are presented. The data on the air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and cloudiness from the Babushkin meteorological station from 01.06.2016 to 30.06.2016 are used as the weather condition in the mathematical model. The results of simulation have shown that the impurities dissolved in water reach the bottom of the Selenga shallow basin of Lake Baikal. As the heat accumulation increases and the river waters warm up, the maximum concentrations of suspended substances tend to remain in the upper layers of the lake.

  4. Drainage of ice-dammed lakes and glacier retreat - a link

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjeldsen, Kristian Kjellerup; Kjaer, K. H.; Rysgaard, Søren

    2011-01-01

    surface freshwater run-off is found in the top of the water column in the fjord while sub-glacial meltwater is entrained deeper in the water column. The latter is highly important as this colder buoyant freshwater is pushed to the water surface followed by a compensating deeper landward current bringing...... in the fjord. The large quantity of buoyant freshwater changed the osmotic pressure and pushed redfish to the water surface causing them to die from divers disease. Further investigation suggested that three ice-dammed lakes adjacent to the Narssap Sermia glacier had drained within the previous year. Analysis......-30 times the volume of an ice-dammed lake prior to drainage. The warm water influx in turn causes the glacier to retreat and to gradually become thinner which feeds back to an increase in drainage events of ice-dammed lakes over time. On a larger scale the feedback mechanism between the drainage of lakes...

  5. Global warming: Design of a flow-through shallow lake mesocosm climate experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liboriussen, L.; Landkildehus, F.; Meerhoff, M.

    2005-01-01

    design details, operating characteristics, and background information on a currently operating experimental flow-through mesocosm system that allows investigation of the interactions between simulated climate warming and eutrophication and their impacts on biological structure and ecosystem processes...

  6. Heat export from the tropics drives mid to late Holocene palaeoceanographic changes offshore southern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perner, Kerstin; Moros, Matthias; De Deckker, Patrick; Blanz, Thomas; Wacker, Lukas; Telford, Richard; Siegel, Herbert; Schneider, Ralph; Jansen, Eystein

    2018-01-01

    The Leeuwin Current (LC), an eastern boundary current, transports tropical waters from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) towards southern latitudes and modulates oceanic conditions offshore southern Australia. New, high-resolution planktic foraminifer assemblage data and alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) provide an in-depth view on LC variability and mechanisms driving the current's properties during the mid to late Holocene (last c. 7.4 ka BP). Our marine reconstructions highlight a longer-term mid to late Holocene reduction of tropical heat export from the IPWP area into the LC. Mid Holocene (c. 7.4 to 3.5 ka BP) occurrence of high SSTs (>19.5 °C), tropical planktic foraminifera and a well-stratified water column document an enhanced heat export from the tropics. From c. 3.5 ka BP onwards, a weaker LC and a notably reduced tropical heat export cause oceanic cooling offshore southern Australia. The observed mid to late Holocene trends likely result from large-scale changes in the IPWP's heat storage linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We propose that a strong and warm LC occurs in response to a La Niña-like state of ENSO during the mid Holocene. The late Holocene LC cooling, however, results from a shift towards an El Niño-like state and a more variable ENSO system that causes cooling of the IPWP. Superimposed on these longer-term trends we find evidence of distinct late Holocene millennial-scale phases of enhanced El Niño/La Niña development, which appear synchronous with northern hemispheric climatic variability. Phases of dominant El Niño-like states occur parallel to North Atlantic cold phases: the '2800 years BP cooling event', the 'Dark Ages' and the 'Little Ice Age', whereas the 'Roman Warm Period' and the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' parallel periods of a predominant La Niña-like state. Our findings provide further evidence of coherent interhemispheric climatic and oceanic conditions during the mid to late

  7. The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahoo, G.B.; Schladow, S.G.; Reuter, J.E.; Coats, R.; Dettinger, M.; Riverson, J.; Wolfe, B.; Costa-Cabral, M.

    2013-01-01

    Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model - the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) - together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3-4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account.

  8. Geomorphological evidence of warm-humid and cold-dry glaciations in the dry western Cordillera of the tropical Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mächtle, B.; Hein, A. S.; Dunai, T.; Eitel, B.

    2012-04-01

    The western Cordillera of the Andes (14°30'S, 74°W) is characterized by high altitudes, strong radiation and semi-arid conditions. Therefore, glacial processes and resulting landforms differ markedly from these of the outer-tropics. However, under sub-arctic conditions similar glacial landforms occur. This congruence can be explained by comparable environmental conditions, which determine the dynamics of ice flow, glacial erosion, debris production as well as moraine deposition. Outside the higher latitudes, typical sub-arctic glacial landforms as controlled moraines and trimline moraines (Evans 2009, Ó Cofaigh et al. 2005) remained undescribed until now. These landforms result from polythermal or cold-basal ice flow, respectively, which is typical for polar conditions. Beside this, we also found steep lateral moraines, which give evidence of increased ice thickness, debris production and deposition and warm-basal ice flow, which is conceivable only for alpine-type valley glaciers. Striations of the bedrock give evidence of accompanied basal erosion. Coexisting trimline moraines and steep lateral moraines rule out the influence of topography on ice thickness and the resulting thermal regime. Therefore, we match the different moraine types to changes in ice thickness, which was controlled by considerable precipitation changes during the last glaciation. An erroneous classification of the observed boulder associations as trimline moraine due to selective erosion after deposition can be excluded due to general arid conditions, slow weathering and the chronological proximity of only a few millennia between both landforms, determined from cosmogenic nuclides. Therefore, the occurrence of different thermal regimes gives evidence of considerable changes in precipitation during the last glaciation - but furthermore requires an associated change in the thermal conditions to explain the very close spatial position of both ice margins. Changes in ice volume must have

  9. Rising Mean Annual Temperature Increases Carbon Flux and Alters Partitioning, but Does Not Change Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Hawaiian Tropical Montane Wet Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litton, C. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Selmants, P.

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) storage exceeds that in the atmosphere by a factor of four, and represents a dynamic balance among C input, allocation, and loss. This balance is likely being altered by climate change, but the response of terrestrial C cycling to warming remains poorly quantified, particularly in tropical forests which play a disproportionately large role in the global C cycle. Over the past five years, we have quantified above- and belowground C pools and fluxes in nine permanent plots spanning a 5.2°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (13-18.2°C) in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forest. This elevation gradient is unique in that substrate type and age, soil type, soil water balance, canopy vegetation, and disturbance history are constant, allowing us to isolate the impact of long-term, whole ecosystem warming on C input, allocation, loss and storage. Across the gradient, soil respiration, litterfall, litter decomposition, total belowground C flux, aboveground net primary productivity, and estimates of gross primary production (GPP) all increase linearly and positively with MAT. Carbon partitioning is dynamic, shifting from below- to aboveground with warming, likely in response to a warming-induced increase in the cycling and availability of soil nutrients. In contrast to observed patterns in C flux, live biomass C, soil C, and total ecosystem C pools remained remarkably constant with MAT. There was also no difference in soil bacterial taxon richness, phylogenetic diversity, or community composition with MAT. Taken together these results indicate that in tropical montane wet forests, increased temperatures in the absence of water limitation or disturbance will accelerate C cycling, will not alter ecosystem C storage, and will shift the products of photosynthesis from below- to aboveground. These results agree with an increasing number of studies, and collectively provide a unique insight into anticipated warming-induced changes in tropical

  10. Des-A-lupane in an East African lake sedimentary record as a new proxy for the stable carbon isotopic composition of C3 plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bree, Loes G.J.; Rijpstra, W. Irene C; Al-Dhabi, N.A.; Verschuren, D.; Sinninghe Damste, J.S.; de Leeuw, J.W.

    2016-01-01

    We studied the high-resolution and well-dated 25,000 year sedimentary record of Lake Challa, a deep tropical crater lake in equatorial East Africa, to explore new proxies for paleoenvironmental and paleohydrological change. Sedimentary biomarker analysis revealed the presence of des-A-triterpenoids

  11. Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2017-10-01

    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

  12. Second-Year Results from the Circumarctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkel, K. M.; Arp, C. D.; Beck, R. A.; Eisner, W. R.; Frey, K. E.; Gaglioti, B.; Grosse, G.; Jones, B. M.; Kim, C.; Lenters, J. D.; Liu, H.; Townsend-Small, A.

    2013-12-01

    Beginning in April 2012, over 55 lakes in northern Alaska were instrumented as the initial phase of CALON, a project designed to document landscape-scale variability in physical and biogeochemical processes of Arctic lakes developed atop permafrost. The current network has nine observation nodes along two latitudinal transects that extend from the Arctic Ocean south 200 km to the foothills of the Brooks Range. At each node, six representative lakes of differing area and depth were instrumented at different intensity levels, and a suite of instruments were deployed to collect field measurements on lake physiochemistry, lake-surface and terrestrial climatology, and lake bed and permafrost temperature. Each April, sensors measuring water temperature and water depth are deployed through the ice and water samples are collected. Sensors are downloaded from lakes and meteorological stations in August, recording a timeline of lake regimes and events from ice decay to the summertime energy and water balance. In general, lake ice thickness increased with latitude. In 2012, ice on deeper (>2 m) lakes was about 1.4 m thick in the Arctic Foothills and 1.7 m thick near the Arctic Ocean coast. Lake ice thickness was about 20 cm thicker in winter 2013 although winter temperatures were several degrees warmer than the previous year; this is likely due to a thinner snow cover in 2013. Lake ice elevations agree with this general trend, showing higher absolute elevation in April 2013 compared to 2012 for most of the surveyed lakes. Regionally, ice-off occurs 2-4 weeks later on lakes near the coast, although there is significant inter-lake variability related to lake depth. Following ice-off, rapid lake warming occurs and water temperature varies synchronously in response to synoptic weather variations and associated changes in net radiation and turbulent heat fluxes. Average mid-summer (July) lake temperatures spanned a relatively wide range in 2012 from 7°C to 18°C, with higher

  13. High primary production contrasts with intense carbon emission in a eutrophic tropical reservoir

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, Rafael M.; Nóbrega, Gabriel N.; Junger, Pedro C.; Figueiredo, Aline V.; Andrade, Anízio S.; Moura, de Caroline G.B.; Tonetta, Denise; Oliveira, Ernandes S.; Araújo, Fabiana; Rust, Felipe; Piñeiro-Guerra, Juan M.; Mendonça, Jurandir R.; Medeiros, Leonardo R.; Pinheiro, Lorena; Miranda, Marcela; Costa, Mariana R.A.; Melo, Michaela L.; Nobre, Regina L.G.; Benevides, Thiago; Roland, Fábio; Klein, de Jeroen; Barros, Nathan O.; Mendonça, Raquel; Becker, Vanessa; Huszar, Vera L.M.; Kosten, Sarian

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies from temperate lakes indicate that eutrophic systems tend to emit less carbon dioxide (CO2) and bury more organic carbon (OC) than oligotrophic ones, rendering them CO2 sinks in some cases. However, the scarcity of data from tropical systems is critical for a

  14. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  15. Feedback of global warming to soil carbon cycling in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakane, Kaneyuki

    1993-01-01

    Thus in this study the simulation of soil carbon cycling and dynamics of its storage in several types of mature forests developed from the cool-temperate to the tropics was carried out for quantitatively assessing carbon loss from the soil under several scenarios of global warming, based on the model of soil carbon cycling in forest ecosystems (Nakane et al. 1984, 1987 and Nakane 1992). (J.P.N.)

  16. Zooplankton abundance, species composition and ecology of tropical high-mountain crater lake Wonchi, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fasil Degefu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The highlands of Ethiopia represent some of the remnants of undisturbed aquatic ecosystems; they are however highly threatened by significant socio–economic developments and associated anthropogenic impacts. Lake Wonchi is one of the few remaining fairly pristine high–mountain crater lakes in the central highlands and has never been investigated in detail. We present a first study on zooplankton taxa composition, abundance and biomass conducted over more than one year including the underlying environmental drivers. The lake is basic (pH 7.9-8.9, dilute (specific conductivity 185-245 µS cm-1 and oligotrophic with mean trophic status index of 36. The zooplankton community composition showed low species richness comprising a total of fourteen taxa with six cladocerans, one copepod and seven rotifers. Simpson´s index of diversity with values between 0.6 and 0.8 pointed towards a homogenous taxa occurrence within the single sample units. The overall mean (±SD standing biomass of zooplankton was 62.02±25.76 mg dry mass m-3,which is low compared to other highland and rift valley lakes in Ethiopia. Cyclopoid copepods, in particular Thermocyclops ethiopiensis were the most abundant group and contributed 50% to the total zooplankton abundance followed by cladocerans (38% and rotifers (12%. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling resulted in a 3-dimensional model, which revealed similar community composition on successive sampling dates except in December/January and May. Temperature, alkalinity, conductivity and nitrate-N had significant influence on this seasonal pattern. A weak, but significant positive correlation (r=0.482, N=20, P=0.037 between Chlorophyll a and zooplankton biomass mirrors a bottom-up effect of phytoplankton biomass on zooplankton dynamics. The zooplankton of Lake Wonchi displayed some degree of segregation along the epi– and metalimnion during this study, but diel vertical migration was not observed. The results show that fish

  17. Paleolimnological records of nitrogen deposition in shallow, high-elevation lakes of Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaulding, Sarah A.; Otu, Megan K.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Baron, Jill S.

    2015-01-01

    Reactive nitrogen (Nr) from anthropogenic sources has been altering ecosystem function in lakes of the Rocky Mountains, other regions of western North America, and the Arctic over recent decades. The response of biota in shallow lakes to atmospheric deposition of Nr, however, has not been considered. Benthic algae are dominant in shallow, high-elevation lakes and are less sensitive to nutrient inputs than planktonic algae. Because the benthos is typically more nutrient rich than the water column, shallow lakes are not expected to show evidence of anthropogenic Nr. In this study, we assessed sedimentary evidence for regional Nr deposition, sediment chronology, and the nature of algal community response in five shallow, high-elevation lakes in Grand Teton National Park (GRTE). Over 140 diatom taxa were identified from the sediments, with a relatively high species richness of taxa characteristic of oligotrophic conditions. The diatom assemblages were dominated by benthic taxa, especially motile taxa. The GRTE lakes demonstrate assemblage-wide shifts in diatoms, including 1) synchronous and significant assemblage changes centered on ~1960 AD; 2) pre-1960 assemblages differed significantly from post-1960 assemblages; 3) pre-1960 diatom assemblages fluctuated randomly, whereas post- 1960 assemblages showed directional change; 4) changes in δ15N signatures were correlated with diatom community composition. These results demonstrate recent changes in shallow high18 elevation lakes that are most correlated with anthropogenic Nr. It is also possible, however, that the combined effect of Nr deposition and warming is accelerating species shifts in benthic diatoms. While uncertainties remain about the potential synergy of Nr deposition and warming, this study adds shallow lakes to the growing list of impacted high-elevation localities in western North America.

  18. The last glacial maximum (21 000-17 000 14C yr B.P.) in the southern tropical Andes (Bolivia) based on diatom studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sylvestre, F.

    1998-01-01

    A diatom study, carried out on a core recovered in the Southern Altiplano (Coipasa salt lake 19 deg. S,68 deg. W) currently almost completely dry, shows that during the last glacial maximum he Coipasa salar was entirely occupied by a large shallow lake. Available data for the northern Altiplano (Lake Titicaca, 16 deg. S, 69 deg. W) indicate a water level 17 m lower than today. This opposition is explained by decreased tropical precipitations whose effects registered by Lake Titicaca were obliterated in the Coipasa salar by increased winter precipitation. (authors)

  19. Interannual variation in methane emissions from tropical wetlands triggered by repeated El Niño Southern Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Ciais, Philippe; Jiang, Hong; Liu, Jinxun; Bousquet, Philippe; Li, Shiqin; Chang, Jie; Fang, Xiuqin; Zhou, Xiaolu; Chen, Huai; Liu, Shirong; Lin, Guanghui; Gong, Peng; Wang, Meng; Wang, Han; Xiang, Wenhua; Chen, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Methane (CH4) emissions from tropical wetlands contribute 60%–80% of global natural wetland CH4 emissions. Decreased wetland CH4 emissions can act as a negative feedback mechanism for future climate warming and vice versa. The impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on CH4 emissions from wetlands remains poorly quantified at both regional and global scales, and El Niño events are expected to become more severe based on climate models’ projections. We use a process-based model of global wetland CH4 emissions to investigate the impacts of the ENSO on CH4 emissions in tropical wetlands for the period from 1950 to 2012. The results show that CH4 emissions from tropical wetlands respond strongly to repeated ENSO events, with negative anomalies occurring during El Niño periods and with positive anomalies occurring during La Niña periods. An approximately 8-month time lag was detected between tropical wetland CH4 emissions and ENSO events, which was caused by the combined time lag effects of ENSO events on precipitation and temperature over tropical wetlands. The ENSO can explain 49% of interannual variations for tropical wetland CH4 emissions. Furthermore, relative to neutral years, changes in temperature have much stronger effects on tropical wetland CH4 emissions than the changes in precipitation during ENSO periods. The occurrence of several El Niño events contributed to a lower decadal mean growth rate in atmospheric CH4 concentrations throughout the 1980s and 1990s and to stable atmospheric CH4 concentrations from 1999 to 2006, resulting in negative feedback to global warming.

  20. Global warming may lead to catastrophic floods in the Himalayas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveitdal, Svein; Bjoerke, Aake

    2002-01-01

    In Nepal, data from 49 surveillance stations show that there has been a distinct temperature increase since the middle of the 1970s, the greatest changes being on the highest summits. When lakes overfill and beaches threaten to break down, this is a result of the global warming that melts the glaciers. The glaciers in Bhutan are observed to decrease by 30 - 40 metres per year, in some years as much as 100 metres. In the village of Tribeni an advanced warning system has been established to warn the 10 000 inhabitants of a potential flood from Lake Tsho Rolpa 108 km upstream. Research from the Himalayas also point to another serious threat. The melting threatens not only human lives, tourism, foot paths, roads, bridges and power stations. Since the mountains are the water towers of the world, filling rivers and lakes with water upon which all life depends, continued shrinking of the world's glaciers as is now observed will cause many rivers and fresh-water systems to dry out. Researchers from the UN Unep programme and International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development have registered at least 44 glacier lakes that are increasing so fast that they may cause outburst floods within five years. Similar investigations are being planned in India, Pakistan and China

  1. Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, Myriam; Izumo, Takeshi; Vialard, Jérôme; Janicot, Serge; Cassou, Christophe; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Mignot, Juliette; Gastineau, Guillaume; Guilyardi, Eric; Lebas, Nicolas; Robock, Alan; McPhaden, Michael J

    2017-10-03

    Stratospheric aerosols from large tropical explosive volcanic eruptions backscatter shortwave radiation and reduce the global mean surface temperature. Observations suggest that they also favour an El Niño within 2 years following the eruption. Modelling studies have, however, so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism. Here we show that an El Niño tends to peak during the year following large eruptions in simulations of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Targeted climate model simulations further emphasize that Pinatubo-like eruptions tend to shorten La Niñas, lengthen El Niños and induce anomalous warming when occurring during neutral states. Volcanically induced cooling in tropical Africa weakens the West African monsoon, and the resulting atmospheric Kelvin wave drives equatorial westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. This wind anomaly is further amplified by air-sea interactions in the Pacific, favouring an El Niño-like response.El Niño tends to follow 2 years after volcanic eruptions, but the physical mechanism behind this phenomenon is unclear. Here the authors use model simulations to show that a Pinatubo-like eruption cools tropical Africa and drives westerly wind anomalies in the Pacific favouring an El Niño response.

  2. Global relationships between phosphorus and chlorophyll-a in oxbow lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belcon, A. U.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.

    2011-12-01

    Traditional limnological studies have focused on extant, large and deep bodies of fresh water. For over 70 years a strong positive relationship between sestonic chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and total phosphorus (TP) has been established in temperate lakes with phosphorus generally viewed as the most limiting factor to productivity (Deevey 1940, Schindler 1977). Over the last few decades however, investigations have expanded to include the examination of shallow lakes, particularly in terms of water quality, nutrient content and regime shifts between stable alternate states. Most of these studies, however, have focused on northern, high latitude regions where the lakes are typically postglacial, isolated and fed by small streams. Relatively little work has been done on oxbow lakes which are floodplain lakes and are semi or permanently connected to the river. Oxbow lakes have been shown to serve several important ecologic and economic functions including nurseries for young fish, feeding grounds for top aquatic predators and increasing the biodiversity of the landscape particularly in tropical regions of the world where high precipitation and large rivers have produced thousands of oxbow lakes. In many developing countries oxbow lakes are an important source of revenue through fishing. This study examined the relationship between nutrients and productivity in oxbow lakes globally through a wide-spread literature synthesis. Four hundred and twenty nine oxbow lakes were represented by 205 data points while 285 data points represented 156 non-floodplain lakes. Despite differences in latitude, lake size and climate we find that oxbow lakes globally have a significantly less steep slope in their TP/Chl relationship than non-floodplain lakes do indicating that the same amount of sestonic phosphorus results in lower productivity. Oxbow lakes (TP/Chl): r = 0.7676, slope = 0.7257, Non-floodplain lakes (TP/Chl): r = 0.8096, slope = 1.1309. We theorize that their connection to the

  3. High-resolution passive sampling of dissolved methane in the water column of lakes in Greenland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, A. E.; Cadieux, S. B.; White, J. R.; Pratt, L. M.

    2013-12-01

    Arctic lakes are important participants in the global carbon cycle, releasing methane in a warming climate and contributing to a positive feedback to climate change. In order to yield detailed methane budgets and understand the implications of warming on methane dynamics, high-resolution profiles revealing methane behavior within the water column need to be obtained. Single day sampling using disruptive techniques has the potential to result in biases. In order to obtain high-resolution, undisturbed profiles of methane concentration and isotopic composition, this study evaluates a passive sampling method over a multi-day equilibration period. Selected for this study were two small lakes (Gatos Research Methane Carbon Isotope Analyzer. PDB sampling and pump sampling resulted in statistically similar concentrations (R2=0.89), ranging from 0.85 to 135 uM from PDB and 0.74 to 143 uM from pump sampling. In anoxic waters of the lake, where concentrations were high enough to yield robust isotopic results on the LGR MCIA, δ13C were also similar between the two methods, yielding -73‰ from PDB and -74‰ from pump sampling. Further investigation will produce results for a second lake and methane carbon and hydrogen isotopic composition for both lakes. Preliminary results for this passive sampling method are promising. We envision the use of this technique in future studies of dissolved methane and expect that it will provide a more finely resolved vertical profile, allowing for a more complete understanding of lacustrine methane dynamics.

  4. Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

    2016-12-01

    The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

  5. Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for lake Superior fishes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy J Cline

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, and walleye (Sander vitreus. Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km(2 per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km(2 per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.

  6. Potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Kyrgyzstan - Research overview of 2004-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansky, Bohumir; Yerokhin, Sergey; Sobr, Miroslav; Engel, Zbynek; Cerny, Michal; Falatkova, Kristyna; Kocum, Jan; Benes, Vojtech

    2016-04-01

    Global warming causes intensive melting and retreat of glaciers in most of high mountains all over the world. This process is also evident in the mountain regions of central Tien Shan. Glacier melt water affects changes in hydrological regime of water streams and causes overfilling of high mountain lake basins. The dams of many lakes are very unstable and can burst open. To determine the degree of such risk, it is necessary to analyse the genesis of lakes, to characterize the morphology of the lake basins and to know the particularities of their hydrological regime. According to the latest inventory within territory of Kyrgyzstan, a total of 1328 lakes have been identified as potentially dangerous, 12 lakes are considered as currently dangerous, other 25 feature high potential hazard. Since 1952 more than 70 disastrous cases of lake outburst have been registered. The hazardous alpine lakes are studied in Kyrgyzstan systematically since 1966. Since 2004, Czech-Kyrgyz research team has been operating in Kyrgyzstan in the field of dangerous glacial lakes. Projects were focused primarily on high-mountain glacial lakes risk assessment, propositions of risk mitigation measures, establishment of permanent research station near one of the studied glacier complexes, preparation of risk analysis for selected endangered valleys, evaluation of climatic and hydrological data and glacier development within observed regions. The most significant portion of data and information has been gathered during field work, complemented by satellite image analysis and surveillance flights over the monitored sites.

  7. CDOM fluorescence as a proxy of DOC concentration in natural waters : a comparison of four contrasting tropical systems

    OpenAIRE

    Rochelle Newall, Emma; Hulot, F. D.; Janeau, Jean-Louis; Merroune, A.

    2014-01-01

    Chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) fluorescence or absorption is often proposed as a rapid alternative to chemical methods for the estimation of bulk dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration in natural waters. However, the robustness of this method across a wide range of systems remains to be shown. We measured CDOM fluorescence and DOC concentration in four tropical freshwater and coastal environments (estuary and coastal, tropical shallow lakes, water from the freshwater lens ...

  8. Chemical evidences of the effects of global change in high elevation lakes in Central Himalaya, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tartari, Gianni; Lami, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Salerno, Franco

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that the lakes integrate the pressure of their surrounding terrestrial environment and the climatic variability. Both the water column and sediments are capable to accumulate signals of global change, such as warming of the deep layers or mutation of diverse biological records (e.g., fossil diatoms) and the nutrient loads variability affecting the trophic state. Typically, the biological responses to climate change have been studied in several types of lakes, while documented changes in water chemistry are much rare. A long term study of 20 high altitude lakes located in central southern Himalaya (Mt Everest) conducted since the 90s has highlighted a general change in the chemical composition of the lake water: a substantial rise in the ionic content was observed, particularly pronounced in the case of sulphate. In a couple of these lakes, monitored on an annual basis, the sulphate concentrations increased over 4-fold. A change in the composition of atmospheric wet deposition, as well as a possible influence of decrease in seasonal snow cover duration, which could have exposed larger basin surfaces to alteration processes, were excluded. The chemical changes proved to be mainly related to the sulphide oxidation processes occurring in the bedrocks or the hydrographic basins. In particular, the oxidation processes, considered as the main factor causing the sulphate increase, occurred in subglacial environments characterized by higher glacier velocities causing higher glacier shrinkage. Associated to this mechanism, the exposure of fresh mineral surfaces to the atmosphere may have contributed also to increases in the alkalinity of lakes. Weakened monsoon of the past two decades may have partially contributed to the solute enrichment of the lakes through runoff waters. The almost synchronous response of the lakes studied, which differs in terms of the presence of glaciers in their basins, highlights the fact that the increasing ionic content of lake

  9. Tropical forage legumes for environmental benefits: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainer Schultze-Kraft

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Ruminant livestock production in the tropics, particularly when based on pastures, is frequently blamed for being detrimental to the environment, allegedly contributing to: (1 degradation and destruction of ecosystems, including degradation and loss of soil, water and biodiversity; and (2 climate change (global warming. In this paper we argue that, rather than being detrimental, tropical forage legumes can have a positive impact on the environment, mainly due to key attributes that characterize the Leguminosae (Fabaceae family: (1 symbiotic nitrogen fixation; (2 high nutritive value; (3 deep-reaching tap-root system; (4 wide taxonomic and genetic diversity; and (5 presence of particular secondary metabolites. Although there are also potential negative aspects, such as soil acidification and the risks of introduced legumes becoming invasive weeds, we submit that legumes have potential to contribute significantly to sustainable intensification of livestock production in the tropics, along with the provision of ecosystem services. To further assess, document and realize this potential, research for development needs in a range of areas are indicated.

  10. Evidence for millennial-scale climate change during marine isotope stages 2 and 3 at Little Lake, Western Oregon, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigg, L.D.; Whitlock, C.; Dean, W.E.

    2001-01-01

    Pollen and geochemical data from Little Lake, western Oregon, suggest several patterns of millennial-scale environmental change during marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 (14,100-27,600 cal yr B.P.) and the latter part of MIS 3 (27,600-42,500 cal yr B.P.). During MIS 3, a series of transitions between warm- and cold-adapted taxa indicate that temperatures oscillated by ca. 2??-4??C every 1000-3000 yr. Highs and lows in summer insolation during MIS 3 are generally associated with the warmest and coldest intervals. Warm periods at Little Lake correlate with warm sea-surface temperatures in the Santa Barbara Basin. Changes in the strength of the subtropical high and the jet stream may account for synchronous changes at the two sites. During MIS 2, shifts between mesic and xeric subalpine forests suggest changes in precipitation every 1000-3000 yr. Increases in Tsuga heterophylla pollen at 25,000 and 22,000 cal yr B.P. imply brief warmings. Minimum summer insolation and maximum global ice-volumes during MIS 2 correspond to cold and dry conditions. Fluctuations in precipitation at Little Lake do not correlate with changes in the Santa Barbara Basin and may be explained by variations in the strength of the glacial anticyclone and the position of the jet stream. ?? 2001 University of Washington.

  11. An increase in aerosol burden due to the land-sea warming contrast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, T.; Allen, R.; Randles, C. A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models simulate an increase in most aerosol species in response to warming, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. This increase in aerosol burden is related to a decrease in wet removal, primarily due to reduced large-scale precipitation. Here, we show that the increase in aerosol burden, and the decrease in large-scale precipitation, is related to a robust climate change phenomenon—the land/sea warming contrast. Idealized simulations with two state of the art climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (NCAR CAM5) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model 3 (GFDL AM3), show that muting the land-sea warming contrast negates the increase in aerosol burden under warming. This is related to smaller decreases in near-surface relative humidity over land, and in turn, smaller decreases in large-scale precipitation over land—especially in the NH midlatitudes. Furthermore, additional idealized simulations with an enhanced land/sea warming contrast lead to the opposite result—larger decreases in relative humidity over land, larger decreases in large-scale precipitation, and larger increases in aerosol burden. Our results, which relate the increase in aerosol burden to the robust climate projection of enhanced land warming, adds confidence that a warmer world will be associated with a larger aerosol burden.

  12. Modeling studies of the Indo-Pacific warm pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnett, T.P.; Schneider N.; Tyree, M.; Ritchie, J.; Ramanathan, V.; Sherwood, S.; Zhang, G.; Flatau, M.

    1994-01-01

    A wide variety of modeling studies are being conducted, aimed at understanding the interactions of clouds, radiation, and the ocean in the region of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the flywheel of the global climate system. These studies are designed to understand the important physical processes operating in the ocean and atmosphere in the region. A stand alone Atmospheric GCM, forced by observed sea surface temperature, has been used for several purposes. One study with the AGCM shows the high sensitivity of the tropical circulation to variations in mid- to high-level clouds. A stand-alone ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is being used to study the relative role of shortwave radiation changes in the buoyancy flux forcing of the upper ocean. Complete studies of the warm pool can only be conducted with a full coupled ocean/atmosphere model. The latest version of the Hamburg CGCM produces realistic simulations of the ocean/atmosphere system in the Indo-Pacific without use of a flux correction scheme

  13. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  14. Water vapor changes under global warming and the linkage to present-day interannual variabilities in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hanii; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2016-12-01

    The fractional water vapor changes under global warming across 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are analyzed. We show that the mean fractional water vapor changes under global warming in the tropical upper troposphere between 300 and 100 hPa range from 12.4 to 28.0 %/K across all models while the fractional water vapor changes are about 5-8 %/K in other regions and at lower altitudes. The "upper-tropospheric amplification" of the water vapor change is primarily driven by a larger temperature increase in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere per degree of surface warming. The relative contributions of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity changes to the water vapor change in each model vary between 71.5 to 131.8 % and 24.8 to -20.1 %, respectively. The inter-model differences in the water vapor change is primarily caused by differences in temperature change, except over the inter-tropical convergence zone within 10°S-10°N where the model differences due to the relative humidity change are significant. Furthermore, we find that there is generally a positive correlation between the rates of water vapor change for long-tem surface warming and those on the interannual time scales. However, the rates of water vapor change under long-term warming have a systematic offset from those on the inter-annual time scales and the dominant contributor to the differences also differs for the two time scales, suggesting caution needs to be taken when inferring long-term water vapor changes from the observed interannual variations.

  15. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  16. Changing climate in the Lake Superior region: a case study of the June 2012 flood and its effects on the western-lake water column

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minor, E. C.; Forsman, B.; Guildford, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In Lake Superior, the world's largest freshwater lake by area, we are seeing annual surface-water temperature increases outpacing those of the overlying atmosphere. We are also seeing ever earlier onsets of water-column stratification (in data sets from the mid-1980s to the present). In Minnesota, including the Lake Superior watershed, precipitation patterns are also shifting toward fewer and more extreme storm events, such as the June 2012 solstice flood, which impacted the western Lake Superior basin. We are interested in how such climatological changes will affect nutrient and carbon biogeochemistry in Lake Superior. The lake is currently an oligotrophic system exhibiting light limitation of primary production in winter and spring, with summer primary production generally limited by phosphorus and sometimes co-limited by iron. Analyses in the western arm of Lake Superior showed that the June 2012 flood brought large amounts of sediment and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) from the watershed into the lake. There was initially a ~50-fold spike in the total phosphorus concentrations (and a 5 fold spike in soluble reactive phosphorus) in flood-impacted waters. This disappeared rapidly, in large part due to sediment settling and did not lead to an increase in chlorophyll concentrations at monitored sampling sites. Instead, lake phytoplankton appeared light limited by a surface lens of warm water enriched in CDOM that persisted for over a month after the flood event itself. Our observations highlight the need for continuing research on these complex in-lake processes in order to make accurate predictions about longer term impacts of these large episodic inputs in CDOM, sediment, and nutrient loading.

  17. Rapid meridional transport of tropical airmasses to the Arctic during the major stratospheric warming in January 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kleinböhl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We present observations of unusually high values of ozone and N2O in the middle stratosphere that were observed by the airborne submillimeter radiometer ASUR in the Arctic. The observations took place in the meteorological situation of a major stratospheric warming that occurred in mid-January 2003 and was dominated by a wave 2 event. On 23 January 2003 the observed N2O and O3 mixing ratios around 69° N in the middle stratosphere reached maximum values of ~190 ppb and ~10 ppm, respectively. The similarities of these N2O profiles in a potential temperature range between 800 and 1200 K with N2O observations around 20° N on 1 March 2003 by the same instrument suggest that the observed Arctic airmasses were transported from the tropics quasi-isentropically. This is confirmed by 5-day back trajectory calculations which indicate that the airmasses between about 800 and 1000 K had been located around 20° N 3–5 days prior to the measurement in the Arctic. Calculations with a linearized ozone chemistry model along calculated as well as idealized trajectories, initialized with the low-latitude ASUR ozone measurements, give reasonable agreement with the Arctic ozone measurement by ASUR. PV distributions suggest that these airmasses did not stay confined in the Arctic region which makes it unlikely that this dynamical situation lead to the formation of dynamically caused pockets of low ozone.

  18. Stable isotope record in annually laminated lake sediments from Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) for the last millennium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabryś, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Tylmann, Wojciech; Bonk, Alicja; Filipiak, Janusz; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Hernandez-Almeida, Ivan; Grosjean, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Stable isotope record of carbon (13C) and oxygen (18O) has been analysed from an annually laminated sediment from Lake Zabinskie (Mazurian Lakeland, NE Poland) with high resolution (1-3 yrs). The sediment layers which were formed in each year during the last millennium contain information about environmental changes in the past. The calcite layers are formed in lake sediment in warm months of the year, therefore the reconstruction of summer climate variables in the past is potentially possible. The investigation of correlation between isotope dataset and instrumental climate data for years 1897-2008 AD confirmed that theory. The record of temperature, precipitation and SPEI (Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index) coefficient, which is a combination of both temperature and precipitation, was tested. The strongest linear correlations were found for most samples for June, July, August (JJA) months but in some cases the correlation coefficient was stronger when also May was taken into account. For the whole 120-yrs series the correlation between δ18O and average JJA temperature is 0.007, average JJA precipitation is 0.16 and average JJA SPEI is 0.20. Analyzing the results for 1897-2008 we can distinguish period 1960-2008 with relevantly stronger correlations: R(temperature) = 0.19, R(precipitation) = 0.20 and R(SPEI) = 0.45. This period is connected with cessation of human activity close to Lake Zabinskie. Reconstruction of climate variables for the last millennium was made using transfer function obtained for calibration period (1897-2008). Reconstructions showed that known climate extremes like Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age with Sporer (1420-1570), Maunder (1645-1715) and Dalton (1790-1820) Minimum was recorded in sediment from Lake Zabinskie. The presented study is a part of the project "Climate of northern Poland during the last 1000 years: Constraining the future with the past (CLIMPOL)", funded within Polish-Swiss Research Programme. http://www.climpol.ug.edu.pl

  19. Species composition, abundance and distribution of zooplankton in a tropical eutrophic lake: Lake Catemaco, México

    OpenAIRE

    Roberto E. Torres-Orozco B.; Sandra A. Zanatta

    1998-01-01

    From April 1992 to May 1993, zooplankton samples were collected monthly by means of horizontal tows in nine sites of the lake. Prior to the towing, temperature of surface water, transparency (Secchi), pH and dissolved oxygen were evaluated. A total of 31 zooplankton forms, including 14 species of rotifers, three copepods, five cladocerans and one ostracod, as well as protozoans (mainly vorticellids and ciliates), were detected. Rotifers were the dominant organisms, mainly Brachionus havanaens...

  20. Decline of coral reefs during late Paleocene to early Eocene global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Scheibner , C.; Speijer , R. P.

    2007-01-01

    International audience; Since the 1980s the frequency of warming events has intensified and simultaneously widespread coral bleaching, and enhanced coral mortality have been observed. Yet, it remains unpredictable how tropical coral reef communities will react to prolonged adverse conditions. Possibly, coral reef systems are sufficiently robust to withstand continued environmental pressures. But if coral mortality increases, what will platform communities of the future look like? The co-evolu...

  1. Global Scale Remote Sensing Monitoring of Endorheic Lake Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scuderi, L. A.

    2010-12-01

    Semi-arid regions of the world contain thousands of endorheic lakes in large shallow basins. Due to their generally remote locations few are continuously monitored. Documentation of recent variability is essential to assessing how endorheic lakes respond to short-term meteorological conditions and longer-term decadal-scale climatic variability and is critical in determining future disturbance of hydrological regimes with respect to predicted warming and drying in the mid-latitudes. Short- and long-term departures from climatic averages, rapid environmental shifts and increased population pressures may result in significant fluctuations in the hydrologic budgets of these lakes and adversely impact endorheic lake/basin ecosystems. Information on flooding variability is also critical in estimating changes in P/E balances and on the production of exposed and easily deflated surfaces that may impact dust loading locally and regionally. In order to provide information on how these lakes respond we need to understand how entire systems respond hydrologically to different climatic inputs. This requires monitoring and analysis of regional to continental-scale systems. To date, this level of monitoring has not been achieved in an operational system. In order to assess the possibility of creating a global-scale lake inundation database we analyzed two contrasting lake systems in western North America (Mexico and New Mexico, USA) and China (Inner Mongolia). We asked two major questions: 1) is it possible to quickly and accurately quantify current lake inundation events in near real time using remote sensing? and, 2) is it possible to differentiate variable meteorological sources and resultant lake inundation responses using this type of database? With respect to these results we outline an automated lake monitoring approach using MODIS data and real-time processing systems that may provide future global monitoring capabilities.

  2. Remote sensing of euphotic depth in shallow tropical inland waters of Lake Naivasha using MERIS data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Majozi, NP

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available radiometric and limnological data collection was undertaken at Lake Naivasha. Atmospheric correction was done on the MERIS images using MERIS Neural Network algorithms, Case 2 Waters (C2R) and Eutrophic Lakes processors and the bright pixel atmospheric...

  3. Energy-balance and melt contributions of supraglacial lakes, Langtang Khola, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, E. S.; Willis, I. C.; Pellicciotti, F.; Steiner, J. F.; Buri, P.; Arnold, N. S.

    2014-12-01

    As Himalayan debris-covered glaciers retreat and thin in response to climate warming, their long, low-gradient tongues generate substantial meltwater which often collects to form surface lakes. Supraglacial lakes on debris covered glaciers present a mechanism of atmosphere-glacier energy transfer that is poorly-studied, and only conceptually included in mass-balance studies. The ponded water can enhance energy transfer as compared to dry debris cover, while also acting as a reservoir of melt-available energy. Supraglacial lakes occur in association with debris-free ice cliffs, another poorly-constrained but critical component of glacier melt. Understanding the role of supraglacial lakes requires precise monitoring of lake volume, estimation of inlet and outlet flows, and consideration of the energy balance across three surfaces: atmosphere-lake, lake-ice, and lake-saturated debris layer. This research progresses previous modeling work on the energy and mass balance of such supraglacial lakes. Lakes were monitored during the monsoon of 2013 on Lirung Glacier in the Langtang Himal of Nepal with pressure transducers and temperature sensors, while UAV-derived DEMs were used to determine lake geometry. Lake albedo was measured to vary between 0.08 and 0.12, and a nearby on-glacier AWS was used to drive the energy balance. Results indicate that the lakes act as a significant recipient of energy, and suggest that lakes are an important part of an active supraglacial hydrologic system during the monsoon. Melt generated by the lake in contact with bare ice is calculated to be 3-5 cm/day, while energy conducted through saturated lake-bottom debris only resulted in 1-2 mm/day melt. The subaqueous melt rates are of similar magnitude to observed ice-cliff melt rates, allowing lake-cliff systems to persist. Energy leaving the lake system through englacial conduits may be the most important contribution to the glacier's mass balance, driving surface evolution to form new ice

  4. The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J.; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A.; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K.

    2014-01-01

    Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

  5. Late Pleistocene temperature history of Southeast Africa: A TEX(86) temperature record from Lake Malawi

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woltering, M.; Johnson, T.C.; Werne, J.P.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2011-01-01

    We present a TEX86-derived surface water temperaturerecord for LakeMalawi that provides the first continuous continental record of temperature variability in the continental tropics spanning the past ∼ 74 kyr with millennial-scale resolution. Average temperature during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5A

  6. Limited capacity for developmental thermal acclimation in three tropical wrasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motson, K.; Donelson, J. M.

    2017-06-01

    For effective conservation and management of marine systems, it is essential that we understand the biological impacts of and capacity for acclimation to increased ocean temperatures. This study investigated for the first time the effects of developing in projected warmer ocean conditions in the tropical wrasse species: Halichoeres melanurus, Halichoeres miniatus and Thalassoma amblycephalum. New recruits were reared for 11 weeks in control (29 °C) and +2 °C (31 °C) temperature treatments, consistent with predicted increases in sea surface temperature by 2100. A broad range of key attributes and performance parameters was tested, including aerobic metabolism, swimming ability, burst escape performance and physical condition. Response latency of burst performance was the only performance parameter in which evidence of beneficial thermal developmental acclimation was found, observed only in H. melanurus. Generally, development in the +2 °C treatment came at a significant cost to all species, resulting in reduced growth and physical condition, as well as metabolic and swimming performance relative to controls. Development in +2 °C conditions exacerbated the effects of warming on aerobic metabolism and swimming ability, compared to short-term warming effects. Burst escape performance parameters were only mildly affected by development at +2 °C, with non-locomotor performance (response latency) showing greater thermal sensitivity than locomotor performance parameters. These results indicate that the effects of future climate change on tropical wrasses would be underestimated with short-term testing. This study highlights the importance of holistic, longer-term developmental experimental approaches, with warming found to yield significant, species-specific responses in all parameters tested.

  7. Response of the phytoplankton community to water quality in a local alpine glacial lake of Xinjiang Tianchi, China: potential drivers and management implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xiaotian; Song, Shuai; Lu, Yonglong; Wang, Tieyu; Liu, Zhaoyang; Li, Qifeng; Zhang, Meng; Suriyanarayanan, Sarvajayakesavalu; Jenkins, Alan

    2017-10-18

    Eutrophication has become one of the most serious threats to aquatic ecosystems in the world. With the combined drivers of climate change and human activities, eutrophication has expanded from warm shallow lakes to cold-water lakes in relatively high latitude regions and has raised greater concerns over lake aquatic ecosystem health. A two-year field study was carried out to investigate water quality, phytoplankton characteristics and eutrophication status in a typical alpine glacial lake of Tianchi, a scenic area and an important drinking water source in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region of China, in 2014 and 2015. Clear seasonal and annual variations of nutrients and organic pollutants were found especially during rainy seasons. For the phytoplankton community, Bacillariophyta held the dominant position in terms of both species and biomass throughout the year, suggesting the dominant characteristics of diatoms in the phytoplankton structure in such a high-altitude cold-water lake. This was quite different from plain and warm lakes troubled with cyanobacterial blooming. Moreover, the dominant abundance of Cyclotella sp. in Tianchi might suggest regional warming caused by climate change, which might have profound effects on the local ecosystems and hydrological cycle. Based on water quality parameters, a comprehensive trophic level index TLI (Σ) was calculated to estimate the current status of eutrophication, and the results inferred emerging eutrophication in Tianchi. Results from Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) and correlation analysis of phytoplankton genera and physico-chemical variables of water indicated that abiotic factors significantly influenced the phytoplankton community and its succession in Tianchi Lake. These abiotic factors could explain 77.82% of the total variance, and ammonium was identified as the most discriminant variable, which could explain 41% of the total variance followed by TP (29%). An estimation of annual nutrient loadings to

  8. Nearshore, seasonally persistent fronts in sea surface temperature on Red Sea tropical reefs

    KAUST Repository

    Blythe, J. N.

    2011-07-08

    Temperature variability was studied on tropical reefs off the coast of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea using remote sensing from Aqua and Terra satellites. Cross-shore gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) were observed, including cold fronts (colder inshore) during winter and warm fronts (warmer inshore) during summer. Fronts persisted over synoptic and seasonal time-scales and had a periodic annual cycle over a 10-year time-series. Measurements of cross-shore SST variability were conducted at the scale of tens of kilometres, which encompassed temperature over shallow tropical reef complexes and the continental slope. Two tropical reefs that had similar reef geomorphology and offshore continental slope topography had identical cold fronts, although they were separated by 100 km along the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. Satellite SST gradients across contours of topography of tropical reefs can be used as an index to flag areas potentially exposed to temperature stress. © 2011 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

  9. Nearshore, seasonally persistent fronts in sea surface temperature on Red Sea tropical reefs

    KAUST Repository

    Blythe, J. N.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Pineda, J.

    2011-01-01

    Temperature variability was studied on tropical reefs off the coast of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea using remote sensing from Aqua and Terra satellites. Cross-shore gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) were observed, including cold fronts (colder inshore) during winter and warm fronts (warmer inshore) during summer. Fronts persisted over synoptic and seasonal time-scales and had a periodic annual cycle over a 10-year time-series. Measurements of cross-shore SST variability were conducted at the scale of tens of kilometres, which encompassed temperature over shallow tropical reef complexes and the continental slope. Two tropical reefs that had similar reef geomorphology and offshore continental slope topography had identical cold fronts, although they were separated by 100 km along the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia. Satellite SST gradients across contours of topography of tropical reefs can be used as an index to flag areas potentially exposed to temperature stress. © 2011 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

  10. Development of Petrov glacial-lake system (Tien Shan and outburst risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Torgoev

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate warming causes an intensive melting and retreat of glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains. Melting water of glaciers causes overfilling of high mountain lakes. The increase of the surface and volume of the Petrov Lake accompanied with the decrease of stability of the dam represents an extremely dangerous situation that can produce a natural disaster. Failure can happen due to erosion, a buildup of water pressure, an earthquake or if a large enough portion of a glacier breaks off and massively displaces the waters in a glacial lake at its base. In case of the lake dam rupture, flooding of a disposal site of highly toxic tailing from the gold mine Kumtor is a threat. If this happens, the toxic waste containing cyanides would contaminate a large area in the Naryn (Syrdarya river basin. Even if the flooding of the disposal site does not occur, the damage after lake dam fracture will be immense due to the glacial lake outburst flood may be a devastating mudslide. In order to prevent or reduce the risk of this event we recommend performing engineering surveys for the development and implementation of the project for the controlled reduction of water level in the Blue Bay of the Petrov Lake to a safe volume.

  11. A GCM comparison of Pleistocene super-interglacial periods in relation to Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Arctic Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletti, A. J.; DeConto, R. M.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Melles, M.

    2015-07-01

    Until now, the lack of time-continuous, terrestrial paleoenvironmental data from the Pleistocene Arctic has made model simulations of past interglacials difficult to assess. Here, we compare climate simulations of four warm interglacials at Marine Isotope Stages (MISs) 1 (9 ka), 5e (127 ka), 11c (409 ka) and 31 (1072 ka) with new proxy climate data recovered from Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia. Climate reconstructions of the mean temperature of the warmest month (MTWM) indicate conditions up to 0.4, 2.1, 0.5 and 3.1 °C warmer than today during MIS 1, 5e, 11c and 31, respectively. While the climate model captures much of the observed warming during each interglacial, largely in response to boreal summer (JJA) orbital forcing, the extraordinary warmth of MIS 11c compared to the other interglacials in the Lake El'gygytgyn temperature proxy reconstructions remains difficult to explain. To deconvolve the contribution of multiple influences on interglacial warming at Lake El'gygytgyn, we isolated the influence of vegetation, sea ice and circum-Arctic land ice feedbacks on the modeled climate of the Beringian interior. Simulations accounting for climate-vegetation-land-surface feedbacks during all four interglacials show expanding boreal forest cover with increasing summer insolation intensity. A deglaciated Greenland is shown to have a minimal effect on northeast Asian temperature during the warmth of stages 11c and 31 (Melles et al., 2012). A prescribed enhancement of oceanic heat transport into the Arctic Ocean does have some effect on Lake El'gygytgyn's regional climate, but the exceptional warmth of MIS l1c remains enigmatic compared to the modest orbital and greenhouse gas forcing during that interglacial.

  12. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  13. Seasonal dynamics, composition and feeding patterns of ciliate assemblages in oligotrophic lakes covering a wide pH range

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Macek, Miroslav; Callieri, C.; Šimek, Karel; Vázquez, A.L.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 166, č. 2 (2006), s. 261-287 ISSN 0003-9136 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/97/0072; GA MŠk(CZ) ME 296; GA MŠk(CZ) OK 118 Grant - others:UNAM DGAPA/PAPIIT(MX) IN208502; EC(XE) ENV4-CT95-0007; EC(XE) EVK1-CT-1999-00032; FES UNAM(MX) PAPCA Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6017912 Keywords : mountain lakes * timberline * acidified lakes * tropical high altitude lake * mixotrophy * oligotrichs * prostomes * gymnosotmes * peritrichs * scuticociliates Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.362, year: 2006

  14. Sediment baseline study of levels and sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and heavy metals in Lake Nicaragua

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheibye, Katrine; Weisser, Johan Juhl; Borggaard, Ole K.

    2014-01-01

    Selected metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were analyzed in sediment samples from 24 sites in Lake Nicaragua sampled May 2010 to provide a baseline of pollution levels. Cu exceeded the Consensus-Based Sediment Quality Guideline (CBSQG) Threshold Effect Concentrations (TECs) at 21...... showed that the CBSQG TECs were exceeded by naphthalene at five sites. The sum concentrations of the 16 US EPA priority PAHs (∑PAH16) ranged from 0.01mgkg(-1)dw to 0.64mgkg(-1)dw. The highest ∑PAH16 concentration was found upstream in River Mayales and the PAH composition revealed a heavy PAH fraction (e....... This study concluded that areas of Lake Nicaragua represent an important pollution baseline for future studies in this lake and other tropical lakes....

  15. Hydrologic and Isotopic Sensitivity of Alpine Lakes to Climate Change in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Mercer, J.; Parsekian, A.; Williams, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Climate reconstructions show that global average temperatures were 0.5°C higher than today during the mid-Holocene, falling well within projections for increases in global average temperature presented in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Despite the consensus for the prediction of a warmer climate, however, it is unclear how snowmelt from high-elevation watersheds will be affected by such a change. Snowmelt contributes substantially to major rivers in the western United States, and much of the water flows through lakes in the highest-elevation watersheds. Our water balance models show that modern alpine lakes with seasonably unstable water levels can desiccate primarily through groundwater outflow, resulting in increased groundwater storage that likely sustains baseflow in mountain streams once snowmelt has subsided in late summer. However, contribution of freshwater from alpine lakes to streams may vary over time as changes in climate alters snowpack, rates of evaporation, and the abundance of snowmelt-fed lakes. As such, alpine lakes with seasonally unstable water levels today may have dried out entirely during the mid-Holocene warm period and may dry out in the future as temperatures increase. To investigate the response of alpine lakes to temperatures of the mid-Holocene, we collected 9 sediment cores from closed-basin alpine lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming that lose most their volumes each summer. We use radiocarbon-dating of charcoal in basal sediments to determine lake formation age, abundance of conifer needles to infer relative forest cover, and a δ18O carbonate record to determine changes in the ratio of evaporation to precipitation in an alpine lake that existed throughout the Holocene. Warming likely changed watershed hydrology through a) decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt, b) increased evaporation, and c) increased transpiration associated with expanded forest cover and longer growing seasons

  16. Decadal trends and common dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal characteristics of the African Great Lakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Loiselle

    Full Text Available The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world's most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0° to 8° south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation. Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers.

  17. Fluxes of Methane and Carbon Dioxide from a Subarctic Lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jammet, Mathilde Manon

    ) and carbon dioxide (CO2) with the atmosphere. Yet uncertainties in the magnitude and drivers of these fluxes remain, partly due to a lack of direct observations covering all seasons of the year, but also because of the diversity in measurement methods that often miss components of the transport processes......Ongoing climate warming is expected to affect the carbon functioning of subarctic ecosystems. Lakes and wetlands, which are common ecosystems of the high northern latitudes, are of utmost interest in this context because they exchange large amounts of the climate-forcing gases methane (CH4......-out and the release of CH4 and CO2 was established. These results underline the crucial importance of shoulder seasons in the annual carbon emissions from seasonally frozen lakes. Overall, the lake was an important annual source of carbon to the atmosphere, partially compensating the higher, annual sink function...

  18. Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargallo-Garriga, Albert; Ayala-Roque, Marta; Granda, Victor; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Oravec, Michal; Urban, Otmar; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2–8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region. PMID:28832555

  19. Effect of crude extracts from cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Texcoco (Mexico) on the population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus (Rotifera).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrios, Cesar Alejandro Zamora; Nandini, S; Sarma, S S S

    2017-12-01

    Unlike temperate regions, tropical ecosystems are characterized by high temperatures (>18 °C) all year, promoting blooms of cyanobacteria which often produce secondary metabolites toxic to zooplankton. Nabor Carillo and the Recreational Lake are part of the saline, Lake Texcoco, in Central Mexico which is filled nowadays with treated waste water. Both water bodies are dominated by Planktothrix, Anabaenopsis, Spirulina and Microcystis. In this study we present the concentration of microcystins in these waterbodies over an annual cycle. We also evaluated the chronic effects of cyanobacterial crude extracts from both lakes on two clones of the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, one from Nabor Carrillo Lake and the other from a canal in the shallow, Lake Xochimilco. The experiments on population growth were performed, beginning with 10 individuals per container for each of the following treatments: control (no crude extract), concentrated crude extract, and diluted crude extract (50:50) with moderately hard water and Chlorella vulgaris in a concentration of 0.5 × 10 6  cells ml -1 . The cyanotoxin levels were measured using an ELISA test and ranged between 0.20 and 2.4 μg L -1 in the lake water. The results showed that the Recreational Lake extracts were more toxic, killing the rotifers in less than five days. The r values ranged from -1.74 to 0.48 in the presence of the crude extracts and 0.16 and 0.24 in the controls. The results have been discussed with emphasis on the importance of conducting regular studies to test ecotoxicological impacts of cyanobacterial blooms in tropical waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Coexistence of Dunes and Humid Conditions at Titan's Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radebaugh, Jani; Lorenz, R. D.; Lunine, J. I.; Kirk, R. L.; Ori, G. G.; Farr, T. G.; Malaska, M.; Le Gall, A.; Liu, Z. Y. C.; Encrenaz, P. J.; Paillou, P.; Hayes, A.; Lopes, R. M. C.; Turtle, E. P.; Wall, S. D.; Stofan, E. R.; Wood, C. A.; Cassini RADAR Team

    2012-10-01

    At Titan's equatorial latitudes there are tens of thousands of dunes, a landform typical of desert environments where sand does not become anchored by vegetation or fluids. Model climate simulations predict generally dry conditions at the equator and humid conditions near the poles of Titan, where lakes of methane/ethane are found. However, moderate relative methane humidity was observed at the Huygens landing site, recent rainfall was seen by Cassini ISS near the Belet Sand Sea, and a putative transient lake in Shangri-La was observed by Cassini VIMS, all of which indicate abundant fluids may be present, at least periodically, at Titan's equatorial latitudes. Terrestrial observations and studies demonstrate dunes can exist and migrate in conditions of high humidity. Active dunes are found in humid climates, indicating the movement of sand is not always prohibited by the presence of fluids. Sand mobility is related to precipitation, evaporation and wind speed and direction. If dune surfaces become wetted by rainfall or rising subsurface fluids, they can become immobilized. However, winds can act to dry the uppermost layers, freeing sands for saltation and enabling dune migration in wet conditions. Active dunes are found in tropical NE Brazil and NE Australia, where there are alternating dry and wet periods, a condition possible for Titan's tropics. Rising and falling water levels lead to the alteration of dune forms, mainly from being anchored by vegetation, but also from cementation by carbonates or clays. Studies of Titan's dunes, which could undergo anchoring of organic sediments by hydrocarbon fluids, could inform the relative strength of vegetation vs. cementation at humid dune regions on Earth. Furthermore, a comprehensive survey of dune morphologies near regions deemed low by SARTopo and stereo, where liquids may collect in wet conditions, could reveal if bodies of liquid have recently existed at Titan's tropics.

  1. Storms in the tropics of Titan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaller, E L; Roe, H G; Schneider, T; Brown, M E

    2009-08-13

    Methane clouds, lakes and most fluvial features on Saturn's moon Titan have been observed in the moist high latitudes, while the tropics have been nearly devoid of convective clouds and have shown an abundance of wind-carved surface features like dunes. The presence of small-scale channels and dry riverbeds near the equator observed by the Huygens probe at latitudes thought incapable of supporting convection (and thus strong rain) has been suggested to be due to geological seepage or other mechanisms not related to precipitation. Here we report the presence of bright, transient, tropospheric clouds in tropical latitudes. We find that the initial pulse of cloud activity generated planetary waves that instigated cloud activity at other latitudes across Titan that had been cloud-free for at least several years. These observations show that convective pulses at one latitude can trigger short-term convection at other latitudes, even those not generally considered capable of supporting convection, and may also explain the presence of methane-carved rivers and channels near the Huygens landing site.

  2. Lake Ontario: Food web dynamics in a changing ecosystem (1970-2000)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, E.L.; Casselman, J.M.; Dermott, R.; Fitzsimons, J.D.; Gal, G.; Holeck, K. T.; Hoyle, J.A.; Johannsson, O.E.; Lantry, B.F.; Makarewicz, J.C.; Millard, E.S.; Munawar, I.F.; Munawar, M.; O'Gorman, R.; Owens, R.W.; Rudstam, L. G.; Schaner, T.; Stewart, T.J.

    2003-01-01

    We examined stressors that have led to profound ecological changes in the Lake Ontario ecosystem and its fish community since 1970. The most notable changes have been reductions in phosphorus loading, invasion by Dreissena spp., fisheries management through stocking of exotic salmonids and control of sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), and fish harvest by anglers and double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus). The response to these stressors has led to (i) declines in both algal photosynthesis and epilimnetic zooplankton production, (ii) decreases in alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) abundance, (iii) declines in native Diporeia and lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis), (iv) behavioral shifts in alewife spatial distribution benefitting native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus), and emerald shiner (Notropis atherinoides) populations, (v) dramatic increases in water clarity, (vi) predation impacts by cormorants on select fish species, and (vii) lake trout recruitment bottlenecks associated with alewife-induced thiamine deficiency. We expect stressor responses associated with anthropogenic forces like exotic species invasions and global climate warming to continue to impact the Lake Ontario ecosystem in the future and recommend continuous long-term ecological studies to enhance scientific understanding and management of this important resource.

  3. The history of South American tropical precipitation for the past 25,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P A; Seltzer, G O; Fritz, S C; Dunbar, R B; Grove, M J; Tapia, P M; Cross, S L; Rowe, H D; Broda, J P

    2001-01-26

    Long sediment cores recovered from the deep portions of Lake Titicaca are used to reconstruct the precipitation history of tropical South America for the past 25,000 years. Lake Titicaca was a deep, fresh, and continuously overflowing lake during the last glacial stage, from before 25,000 to 15,000 calibrated years before the present (cal yr B.P.), signifying that during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru and much of the Amazon basin were wetter than today. The LGM in this part of the Andes is dated at 21,000 cal yr B.P., approximately coincident with the global LGM. Maximum aridity and lowest lake level occurred in the early and middle Holocene (8000 to 5500 cal yr B.P.) during a time of low summer insolation. Today, rising levels of Lake Titicaca and wet conditions in Amazonia are correlated with anomalously cold sea-surface temperatures in the northern equatorial Atlantic. Likewise, during the deglacial and Holocene periods, there were several millennial-scale wet phases on the Altiplano and in Amazonia that coincided with anomalously cold periods in the equatorial and high-latitude North Atlantic, such as the Younger Dryas.

  4. Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

    2010-05-01

    Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

  5. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Tana E.; Cavaleri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.

    2012-01-01

    Tropical forests play a major role in regulating global carbon (C) fluxes and stocks, and even small changes to C cycling in this productive biome could dramatically affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Temperature is expected to increase over all land surfaces in the future, yet we have a surprisingly poor understanding of how tropical forests will respond to this significant climatic change. Here we present a contemporary synthesis of the existing data and what they suggest about how tropical forests will respond to increasing temperatures. Our goals were to: (i) determine whether there is enough evidence to support the conclusion that increased temperature will affect tropical forest C balance; (ii) if there is sufficient evidence, determine what direction this effect will take; and, (iii) establish what steps should to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to increasing temperatures. We approach these questions from a mass-balance perspective and therefore focus primarily on the effects of temperature on inputs and outputs of C, spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale responses. We found that, while there is the strong potential for temperature to affect processes related to C cycling and storage in tropical forests, a notable lack of data combined with the physical, biological and chemical diversity of the forests themselves make it difficult to resolve this issue with certainty. We suggest a variety of experimental approaches that could help elucidate how tropical forests will respond to warming, including large-scale in situ manipulation experiments, longer term field experiments, the incorporation of a range of scales in the investigation of warming effects (both spatial and temporal), as well as the inclusion of a diversity of tropical forest sites. Finally, we highlight areas of tropical forest research where notably few data are available, including temperature effects on: nutrient cycling

  6. THECAMOEBIANS (TESTACEOUS RHIZOPODS FROM A TROPICAL LAKE: LA FE RESERVOIR, ANTIOQUIA, COLOMBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ESCOBAR JAIME

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available This research describes thecamoebians and explores their utility as environmental bioindicators on La Fe Reservoir, Antioquia, Colombia. Nineteen dredge samples were collected at the sediment-water interface, with a cylindrical dredge in March and October 2001. Temperature, pH, conductivity and total dissolved solids were recorded in situ both at depth and at surface for each sample locality. Counting of thecamoebians was done in the >63μm size fraction until 200 thecamoebians per sample were identified. A total of 6 genera, 14 species and 25 sub-species were found at La Fe Reservoir. Arcella vulgaris and Centropyxis aculeata dominate most of the samples. This study opens the possibility for additional research with thecamoebians as bioindicators of limnological physical parameters in tropical water bodies and calls for a further explanation for the occurrence of A. vulgaris and C. aculeata as the dominating species on this tropical reservoir.

  7. Global warming and hepatotoxin production by cyanobacteria: what can we learn from experiments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Shehawy, Rehab; Gorokhova, Elena; Fernández-Piñas, Francisca; del Campo, Francisca F

    2012-04-01

    Global temperature is expected to rise throughout this century, and blooms of cyanobacteria in lakes and estuaries are predicted to increase with the current level of global warming. The potential environmental, economic and sanitation repercussions of these blooms have attracted considerable attention among the world's scientific communities, water management agencies and general public. Of particular concern is the worldwide occurrence of hepatotoxic cyanobacteria posing a serious threat to global public health. Here, we highlight plausible effects of global warming on physiological and molecular changes in these cyanobacteria and resulting effects on hepatotoxin production. We also emphasize the importance of understanding the natural biological function(s) of hepatotoxins, various mechanisms governing their synthesis, and climate-driven changes in food-web interactions, if we are to predict consequences of the current and projected levels of global warming for production and accumulation of hepatotoxins in aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Bacterial GDGTs in Holocene sediments and catchment soils of a high Alpine lake: application of the MBT/CBT-paleothermometer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Niemann

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A novel proxy for continental mean annual air temperature (MAAT and soil pH, the MBT/CBT-paleothermometer, is based on the temperature (T and pH-dependent distribution of specific bacterial membrane lipids (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers – GDGTs in soil organic matter. Here, we tested the applicability of the MBT/CBT-paleothermometer to sediments from Lake Cadagno, a high Alpine lake in southern Switzerland with a small catchment of 2.4 km2. We analysed the distribution of bacterial GDGTs in catchment soils and in a radiocarbon-dated sediment core from the centre of the lake, covering the past 11 000 yr. The distribution of bacterial GDGTs in the catchment soils is very similar to that in the lake's surface sediments, indicating a common origin of the lipids. Consequently, their transfer from the soils into the sediment record seems undisturbed, probably without any significant alteration of their distribution through in situ production in the lake itself or early diagenesis of branched GDGTs. The MBT/CBT-inferred MAAT estimates from soils and surface sediments are in good agreement with instrumental values for the Lake Cadagno region (~0.5 °C. Moreover, downcore MBT/CBT-derived MAAT estimates match in timing and magnitude other proxy-based T reconstructions from nearby locations for the last two millennia. Major climate anomalies recorded by the MBT/CBT-paleothermometer are, for instance, the Little Ice Age (~14th to 19th century and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, ~9th to 14th century. Together, our observations indicate the quantitative applicability of the MBT/CBT-paleothermometer to Lake Cadagno sediments. In addition to the MWP, our lacustrine paleo T record indicates Holocene warm phases at about 3, 5, 7 and 11 kyr before present, which agrees in timing with other records from both the Alps and the sub-polar North-East Atlantic Ocean. The good temporal match of the warm periods determined

  9. Interactions of artificial lakes with groundwater applying an integrated MODFLOW solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Zehairy, A. A.; Lubczynski, M. W.; Gurwin, J.

    2018-02-01

    Artificial lakes (reservoirs) are regulated water bodies with large stage fluctuations and different interactions with groundwater compared with natural lakes. A novel modelling study characterizing the dynamics of these interactions is presented for artificial Lake Turawa, Poland. The integrated surface-water/groundwater MODFLOW-NWT transient model, applying SFR7, UZF1 and LAK7 packages to account for variably-saturated flow and temporally variable lake area extent and volume, was calibrated throughout 5 years (1-year warm-up, 4-year simulation), applying daily lake stages, heads and discharges as control variables. The water budget results showed that, in contrast to natural lakes, the reservoir interactions with groundwater were primarily dependent on the balance between lake inflow and regulated outflow, while influences of precipitation and evapotranspiration played secondary roles. Also, the spatio-temporal lakebed-seepage pattern was different compared with natural lakes. The large and fast-changing stages had large influence on lakebed-seepage and water table depth and also influenced groundwater evapotranspiration and groundwater exfiltration, as their maxima coincided not with rainfall peaks but with highest stages. The mean lakebed-seepage ranged from 0.6 mm day-1 during lowest stages (lake-water gain) to 1.0 mm day-1 during highest stages (lake-water loss) with largest losses up to 4.6 mm day-1 in the peripheral zone. The lakebed-seepage of this study was generally low because of low lakebed leakance (0.0007-0.0015 day-1) and prevailing upward regional groundwater flow moderating it. This study discloses the complexity of artificial lake interactions with groundwater, while the proposed front-line modelling methodology can be applied to any reservoir, and also to natural lake interactions with groundwater.

  10. Moored surface buoy observations of the diurnal warm layer

    KAUST Repository

    Prytherch, J.

    2013-09-01

    An extensive data set is used to examine the dynamics of diurnal warming in the upper ocean. The data set comprises more than 4700 days of measurements at five sites in the tropics and subtropics, obtained from surface moorings equipped to make comprehensive meteorological, incoming solar and infrared radiation, and high-resolution subsurface temperature (and, in some cases, velocity) measurements. The observations, which include surface warmings of up to 3.4°C, are compared with a selection of existing models of the diurnal warm layer (DWL). A simple one-layer physical model is shown to give a reasonable estimate of both the magnitude of diurnal surface warming (model-observation correlation 0.88) and the structure and temporal evolution of the DWL. Novel observations of velocity shear obtained during 346 days at one site, incorporating high-resolution (1 m) upper ocean (5-15 m) acoustic Doppler current profile measurements, are also shown to be in reasonable agreement with estimates from the physical model (daily maximum shear model-observation correlation 0.77). Physics-based improvements to the one-layer model (incorporation of rotation and freshwater terms) are discussed, though they do not provide significant improvements against the observations reported here. The simplicity and limitations of the physical model are used to discuss DWL dynamics. The physical model is shown to give better model performance under the range of forcing conditions experienced across the five sites than the more empirical models. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  11. Moored surface buoy observations of the diurnal warm layer

    KAUST Repository

    Prytherch, J.; Farrar, J. T.; Weller, R. A.

    2013-01-01

    An extensive data set is used to examine the dynamics of diurnal warming in the upper ocean. The data set comprises more than 4700 days of measurements at five sites in the tropics and subtropics, obtained from surface moorings equipped to make comprehensive meteorological, incoming solar and infrared radiation, and high-resolution subsurface temperature (and, in some cases, velocity) measurements. The observations, which include surface warmings of up to 3.4°C, are compared with a selection of existing models of the diurnal warm layer (DWL). A simple one-layer physical model is shown to give a reasonable estimate of both the magnitude of diurnal surface warming (model-observation correlation 0.88) and the structure and temporal evolution of the DWL. Novel observations of velocity shear obtained during 346 days at one site, incorporating high-resolution (1 m) upper ocean (5-15 m) acoustic Doppler current profile measurements, are also shown to be in reasonable agreement with estimates from the physical model (daily maximum shear model-observation correlation 0.77). Physics-based improvements to the one-layer model (incorporation of rotation and freshwater terms) are discussed, though they do not provide significant improvements against the observations reported here. The simplicity and limitations of the physical model are used to discuss DWL dynamics. The physical model is shown to give better model performance under the range of forcing conditions experienced across the five sites than the more empirical models. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  12. Sedimentary evolution and ecosystem change in Ahémé lake, south-west Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amoussou, Ernest; Totin Vodounon, Henri S.; Vissin, Expédit W.; Mahé, Gil; Oyédé, Marc Lucien

    2018-04-01

    Tropical moist ecosystems, such as Ahémé lake, south-west Benin, are increasingly marked by water degradation, linked with the activities of increasing riparian populations. The objective of this study is to analyze sedimentary dynamics and its influence on the changing ecosystem of Ahémé lake from 1961-2010. Data used to carry out the study are records of precipitation, flows, turbidity, suspended sediment, mineral elements and bathymetry. Grain size data from the sieving of sediment samples were used to interpret suspended solids distribution in the lake. Linear correlation coefficients were used to assess the degree of dependence between rainfall and runoff inputs to the lake. Lake depth measurements in some areas of the lake serve to determine the rate of infilling. The sorting index was used to highlight the distribution and origin of sediments in the lake. The results show a degradation of the lake Ahémé ecosystem characterized by infilling of its bed, a high correlation (r = 0.90) between rainfall and runoff, seasonal change in physicochemical parameters (total suspended sediment decrease by -91 %) and decrease in fish production by 135.8 t yr-1. The highest mean suspended sediment concentrations in lake inputs occur during high water periods (123 mg L-1) compared to low water periods (11.2 mg L-1).

  13. Recent Decrease in Typhoon Destructive Potential and Global Warming Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, I. I.

    2016-02-01

    Despite the severe impact of individual tropical cyclones like Sandy (2012) and Haiyan (2013), global TC activities as a whole have actually dropped considerably since the early 1990's. Especially over the most active and hazardous TC basin on earth, the Western North Pacific (WNP) typhoon Main Development Region (MDR), an evident decrease in TC activity has been observed, as characterised by the drop in the annual Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005). Paradoxically, this decrease occurred despite evident ocean warming, with upper ocean heat content increased by 12% over the western North Pacific MDR (Pun et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2014). This study explores the interesting interplay between atmosphere and ocean on the WNP typhoons. Though ocean may become more favourable (warming) to fuel individual typhoon event through temporal relaxation in the atmosphere condition (e.g. Haiyan in 2013), the overall `worsened' atmospheric condition (e.g. increase in vertical wind shear) can `over-powers' the `better' ocean to suppress the overall WNP typhoon activities. This stronger negative contribution from reduced typhoon frequency over the increased intensity is also present under the global warming scenario, based on analysis of the simulated typhoon data from high-resolution modelling.

  14. Experiencing the changing climate on the shores of Lake Superior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, K.; Maibach, E.

    2011-12-01

    The Great Lakes of the United States - the largest freshwater system in the world - have been termed "the canary in the coal mine" of environmental change. To assess if and how residents of Alger County, Michigan are experiencing changes in climate on the shores of Lake Superior, during the summer of 2010 we conducted a representative household mail survey in collaboration with a national lakeshore and watershed partnership. A total of 765 adult residents (18 years or older) responded to the survey; a 57% survey completion rate. We content analyzed respondents' open-ended characterizations of how they have personally experienced global warming, and compared the results with land surface and storm data for the same geographic region to see whether public perceptions of local changes match trends in National Climatic Data Center data. Just over a quarter of residents (27%) indicated that they had personally experienced global warming. Those who had were most likely to say that they had experienced global warming locally (as opposed to in other locations of the country or globally), and most frequently cited changes in seasons, weather, lake levels, and animals or plant species. However, some local public perceptions appeared to conflict with weather records. For example, residents were more likely to say that they had been experiencing less snow in the winters, while NCDC data suggests the reverse is true. As climate changes differentially in regions across the United States, the public will in turn experience its physical impacts in distinct ways that are unique to each landscape. This may be counter-intuitive to a public that increasingly experiences the world, and issues such as climate change, through sources of information such as national news media that operate at much larger geographic scales. Understanding where these forms of cognitive dissonance may arise may assist researchers, educators, and communicators in furthering discourses with the public about

  15. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  16. The preconditioning role of Tropical Atlantic Variability in the development of the ENSO teleconnection: implications for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannini, A.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.

    A comparison of rainfall variability in the semi-arid Brazilian Nordeste in observations and in two sets of model simulations leads to the conclusion that the evolving interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can explain two puzzling features of ENSO's impact on the Nordeste: (1) the event-to-event unpredictability of ENSO's impact; (2) the greater impact of cold rather than warm ENSO events during the past 50 years. The explanation is in the `preconditioning' role of Tropical Atlantic Variability. When, in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO, the tropical Atlantic happens to be evolving consistently with the development expected of the ENSO teleconnection, ENSO and TAV add up to force large anomalies in Nordeste rainfall. When it happens to be evolving in opposition to the canonical development of ENSO, then the net outcome is less obvious, but also less anomalous. The more frequent occurrence of tropical Atlantic conditions consistent with those that develop during a cold ENSO event, i.e. of a negative meridional sea surface temperature gradient, explains the weaker warm ENSO and stronger cold ENSO anomalies in Nordeste rainfall of the latter part of the twentieth century. Close monitoring of the evolution of the tropical Atlantic in seasons prior to the mature phase of ENSO should lead to an enhanced forecast potential.

  17. Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, E.; Irvine, P. J.; Gregorie, L. J.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

    2013-05-01

    Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of solar radiation management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various representative concentration pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. "Optimal" mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs overcool in a fully geoengineered (i.e., preindustrial global mean temperature) world.

  18. Carbon dynamics modelization and biological community sensitivity to temperature in an oligotrophic freshwater Antarctic lake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antonio Villaescusa, Juan; Jorgensen, Sven Erik; Rochera, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    food web. This preliminary model aims to describe part of the carbon dynamics, especially for bacterioplankton and associated factors, in this maritime Antarctic lake highly affected by temperature increase linked to regional warming. To describe the system, the effects of the variation of different...

  19. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  20. Extreme diel dissolved oxygen and carbon cycles in shallow vegetated lakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Mikkel R; Kragh, Theis; Sand-Jensen, Kaj

    2017-09-13

    A common perception in limnology is that shallow lakes are homogeneously mixed owing to their small water volume. However, this perception is largely gained by downscaling knowledge from large lakes to their smaller counterparts. Here we show that shallow vegetated lakes (less than 0.6 m), in fact, undergo recurring daytime stratification and nocturnal mixing accompanied by extreme chemical variations during summer. Dense submerged vegetation effectively attenuates light and turbulence generating separation between warm surface waters and much colder bottom waters. Photosynthesis in surface waters produces oxygen accumulation and CO 2 depletion, whereas respiration in dark bottom waters causes anoxia and CO 2 accumulation. High daytime pH in surface waters promotes precipitation of CaCO 3 which is re-dissolved in bottom waters. Nocturnal convective mixing re-introduces oxygen into bottom waters for aerobic respiration and regenerated inorganic carbon into surface waters, which supports intense photosynthesis. Our results reconfigure the basic understanding of local environmental gradients in shallow lakes, one of the most abundant freshwater habitats globally. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Presence of the Cyanotoxin Microcystin in Arctic Lakes of Southwestern Greenland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica V. Trout-Haney

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Cyanobacteria and their toxins have received significant attention in eutrophic temperate and tropical systems where conspicuous blooms of certain planktonic taxa release toxins into fresh water, threatening its potability and safe use for recreation. Although toxigenic cyanobacteria are not confined to high nutrient environments, bloom-forming species, or planktonic taxa, these other situations are studied les often studied. For example, toxin production in picoplankton and benthic cyanobacteria—the predominant photoautotrophs found in polar lakes—is poorly understood. We quantified the occurrence of microcystin (MC, a hepatotoxic cyanotoxin across 18 Arctic lakes in southwestern Greenland. All of the focal lakes contained detectable levels of MC, with concentrations ranging from 5 ng·L−1 to >400 ng·L−1 during summer, 2013–2015. These concentrations are orders of magnitude lower than many eutrophic systems, yet the median lake MC concentration in Greenland (57 ng·L−1 was still 6.5 times higher than the median summer MC toxicity observed across 50 New Hampshire lakes between 1998 and 2008 (8.7 ng·L−1. The presence of cyanotoxins in these Greenlandic lakes demonstrates that high latitude lakes can support toxigenic cyanobacteria, and suggests that we may be underestimating the potential for these systems to develop high levels of cyanotoxins in the future.

  2. Review of fish diversity in the Lake Huron basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roseman, E.F.; Schaeffer, J.S.; Steen, P.J.

    2009-01-01

    Lake Huron has a rich aquatic habitat diversity that includes shallow embayments, numerous tributaries, shallow mid-lake reef complexes, archipelagos, and profundal regions. These habitats provide support for warm, cool, and cold water fish communities. Diversity of fishes in Lake Huron reflects post-glaciation colonization events, current climate conditions, accidental and intentional introductions of non-indigenous species, and extinctions. Most extinction events have been largely associated with habitat alterations, exploitation of fisheries, and interactions with non-indigenous species. The most recent historical survey of extirpated and imperiled species conducted in the late 1970s identified 79 fish species in Lake Huron proper and about 50 additional species in tributaries. Of those 129 species, 20 are now considered extirpated or imperiled. Extirpated species include Arctic grayling, paddlefish, weed shiner, deepwater cisco, blackfin cisco, shortnose cisco, and kiyi. Six species have declined appreciably due to loss of clear-water stream habitat: the river redhorse, river darter, black redhorse, pugnose shiner, lake chubsucker, redside dace, eastern sand darter, and channel darter. While numerous agencies, universities, and other organizations routinely monitor nearshore and offshore fish distribution and abundance, there is a need for more rigorous examination of the distribution and abundance of less-common species to better understand their ecology. This information is critical to the development of management plans aimed at ecosystem remediation and restoration.

  3. Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

    1996-10-01

    Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies

  4. On the optimization of empirical data concerning radionuclides in water of Lake Juodis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasiuk, N.; Koviazina, E.; Shliahtich, E.

    2004-01-01

    Quality of site-dependent water sampling for radionuclide analysis assessing their removal from the complicated aquatic system of eutrophic Lake Juodis is analyzed comparing time courses of site-specific data on standard variables (pH, temperature, redox potential, oxygen concentration, conductivity) in 2003-2004. Compared data were measured simultaneously: a) in the open bottom terrace of the lake adjoining its outflow; b) before the beaver dam bounding the lake rush grown area and c) at the site of the outflowing brook usually used for water sampling for radionuclide analysis. The rush grown area adjoining the outflowing brook is a natural filter for plutonium transport from the lake during warm season as well as for radiocesium activity fraction associated with the suspended matter. Using information on site-specific variations of vertical profiles of standard variables measured in the shallow bottom terrace of the lake, seasonal peculiarities of vertical radionuclide transport in the water column and their release from the sediments are discussed. In winter beaver activities in the lake as well as formation of the anaerobic zone in the rush grown area are considered as supplementary mechanisms facilitating vertical transport of radionuclides in the temperature stratificated water column and their removal from similar lakes. (author)

  5. Tropical cloud buoyancy is the same in a world with or without ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Jacob T.; Romps, David M.

    2016-04-01

    When convective clouds grow above the melting line, where temperatures fall below 0°C, condensed water begins to freeze and water vapor is deposited. These processes release the latent heat of fusion, which warms cloud air, and many previous studies have suggested that this heating from fusion increases cloud buoyancy in the upper troposphere. Here we use numerical simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with and without ice processes to argue that tropical cloud buoyancy is not systematically higher in a world with fusion than in a world without it. This insensitivity results from the fact that the environmental temperature profile encountered by developing tropical clouds is itself determined by convection. We also offer a simple explanation for the large reservoir of convective available potential energy in the tropical upper troposphere that does not invoke ice.

  6. Response of Zooplankton to Climate Variability: Droughts Create a Perfect Storm for Cladocerans in Shallow Eutrophic Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaohua Ji

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A major attribute of the Earth’s climate that may be affected by global warming is the amplitude of variability in teleconnections. These global-scale processes involve links between oceanic conditions in one locale and weather in another, often distant, locale. An example is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, which can affect rainfall and then the properties of lakes in Europe, Africa, North and South America. It affects rainfall, droughts and the depth of lakes in Florida, USA. It is predicted that the amplitude of variation in the ENSO will increase with global warming and, therefore, droughts will become more severe and periods of rain more intense. We investigated possible effects of climate on the zooplankton in shallow subtropical lakes by studying 16 years of monthly data from six shallow eutrophic lakes located north of Orlando, Florida. Results indicate that water depth and lake volume are tightly coupled with rainfall, as expected. During droughts, when lake depth and volume were greatly reduced, there were intensified cyanobacterial blooms, and the zooplankton shifted towards greater relative biomass of copepods compared to cladocerans. The change of zooplankton was likely due to the intensified selective fish predation in the reduced water volume, and/or selective adverse effects of cyanobacteria on cladocerans. The greatly reduced volume might lead to a ‘perfect storm’ of top-down and bottom-up factors that favor copepods over cladocerans. The mechanism needs further study. Regardless, this study documents a direct link between climate variability and zooplankton composition, and suggests how future changes in climate might affect plankton communities.

  7. Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2009-01-01

    The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

  8. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  9. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  10. Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Zorello Laporta

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80-300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Ross-Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text] estimated employing Ross-Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate

  11. Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, L.; Botzet, M.; Esch, M.

    1994-01-01

    The use of a high resolution atmospheric model at T106 resolution, for studying the influence on greenhouse warming on tropical storm climatology, is investigated. The same method for identifying the storms has been used as in a previous study by Bengtsson et al (1994). The sea surface temperature anomalies have been taken from a previous climate change experiment, obtained with a low resolution ocean-atmosphere coupled model. The global distribution of the storms agree in their geographical position and seasonal variability with that of the present climate, but the number of storms is significantly reduced, particularly at the Southern hemisphere. The main reason to this is related to increased tropospheric stability, associated with increased warming at the upper troposphere and changes in the large scale circulation such as a weaker Hadley circulation and stronger upper air westerlies. The surface winds in the tropics are generally weaker and evaporation is also somewhat reduced, in spite of higher sea surface temperatures. (orig.)

  12. Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

    2017-06-01

    Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  13. Thermal sensitivity of the crab Neosarmatium africanum in tropical and temperate mangroves on the east coast of Africa

    KAUST Repository

    Fusi, Marco

    2017-03-09

    Mangrove forests are amongst the tropical marine ecosystems most severely affected by rapid environmental change, and the activities of key associated macrobenthic species contribute to their ecological resilience. Along the east coast of Africa, the amphibious sesarmid crab Neosarmatium africanum (=meinerti) plays a pivotal role in mangrove ecosystem functioning through carbon cycling and sediment bioturbation. In the face of rapid climate change, identifying the sensitivity and vulnerability to global warming of this species is of increasing importance. Based on a latitudinal comparison, we measured the thermal sensitivity of a tropical and a temperate population of N. africanum, testing specimens at the centre and southern limit of its distribution, respectively. We measured metabolic oxygen consumption and haemolymph dissolved oxygen content during air and water breathing within a temperature range that matched the natural environmental conditions. The results indicate different thermal sensitivities in the physiological responses of N. africanum from tropical and temperate populations, especially during air breathing. The differences observed in the thermal physiology between the two populations suggest that the effect of global warming on this important mangrove species may be different under different climate regimes.

  14. The Role of Subtropical Irreversible PV Mixing in the Zonal Mean Circulation Response to Global Warming-like Thermal Forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sun, Lantao [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Wu, Yutian [New York Univ. (NYU), NY (United States); Chen, Gang [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2013-11-21

    The atmospheric circulation response to the global warming-like tropical upper tropospheric heating is revisited using a dry atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) in light of a new diagnostics based on the concept of finite-amplitude wave activity (FAWA) on equivalent latitude. For a given tropical heating profile, the linear Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) wave refraction analysis sometimes gives a very different and even opposite prediction of the eddy momentum flux response to that of the actual full model simulation, exposing the limitation of the traditional linear approach in understanding the full dynamics of the atmospheric response under global warming. The implementation of the FAWA diagnostics reveals that in response to the upper tropospheric heating, effective diffusivity, a measure of the mixing efficiency, increases and advances upward and poleward in the subtropics and the resultant enhancement and the poleward encroachment of eddy potential vorticity mixing leads to a poleward displaced potential vorticity (PV) gradient peak in the upper troposphere. The anomalous eddy PV flux, in balance with the PV dissipation, gives rise to a poleward shift in the eddy-driven jet and eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that these irreversible dissipation processes in the upper troposphere are robust, regardless of the width of the tropical heating.

  15. Reconstruction of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones in Azores for the last 800 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio-Ingles, Maria Jesus; Sánchez, Guiomar; Trigo, Ricardo; Francus, Pierre; Gonçalves, Vitor; Raposeiro, Pedro; Freitas, Conceiçao; Borges, Paolo; Hernández, Armand; Bao, Roberto; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Andrade, Cesar; Sáez, Alberto; Giralt, Santiago

    2014-05-01

    The variability of North Atlantic tropical storms has been the focus of several studies. Duration and seasonality has been attributed to a number of climate patterns and processes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode, African easterly waves, and atmospheric Rossby waves, but their tracks have been widely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Several authors have pointed out an increase and track shifting of North Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1995 with increased probability of these turning north far away from the North American continent. However, this cannot be regarded as an infrequent phenomenon as most proxy records from the Atlantic North have shown the existence of similar patterns in the past. Sao Miguel Island (Azores archipelago, Portugal) is settled in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. This location makes this island an excellent natural laboratory to record shifts on North Atlantic tropical storms tracks that can reach the archipelago as low intensity hurricanes (e.g. Nadine in 2012) or downgraded to tropical storm (e.g. Grace in 2009). In the present work, lake sediment records have been used as a proxy sensor of tropical storms. Lagoa Azul is located inside Sete Cidades volcanic caldera and its catchment is characterized by stepped and forested caldera walls. Tropical storms and heavy rainfalls produce a flashy and substantial enhancement in the erosion of the catchment, increasing the sediments reaching the lake by rockfalls deposits (in littoral zones) and flood events deposits (in offshore zones). These flood events can be recognized in the sedimentary record as lobe deposits dominated by terrestrial components. It can be found in the sedimentary record and the bathymetry. Instrumental meteorological data and historical records have been compiled to reconstruct the most recent history of the North Atlantic tropical storms that have landed or affected the Sao Miguel Island (Andrade et al., 2008). In addition, a 1

  16. An isoline separating relatively warm from relatively cool wintertime forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Wickham; T.G. Wade; K.H. Riitters

    2014-01-01

    Forest-oriented climate mitigation policies promote forestation as a means to increase uptake of atmospheric carbon to counteract global warming. Some have pointed out that a carbon-centric forest policy may be overstated because it discounts biophysical aspects of the influence of forests on climate. In extra-tropical regions, many climate models have shown that...

  17. Limnological characteristics of 56 lakes in the Central Canadian Arctic Treeline Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John P. SMOL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Measured environmental variables from 56 lakes across the Central Canadian Treeline Region exhibited clear limnological differences among subpolar ecozones, reflecting strong latitudinal changes in biome characteristics (e.g. vegetation, permafrost, climate. Principal Components Analysis (PCA clearly separated forested sites from tundra sites based on distinct differences in limnological characteristics. Increases in major ions and related variables (e.g. dissolved inorganic carbon, DIC were higher in boreal forest sites in comparison to arctic tundra sites. The higher values recorded in the boreal forest lakes may be indirectly related to differences in climatic factors in these zones, such as the degree of permafrost development, higher precipitation and runoff, duration of ice-cover on the lakes, and thicker and better soil development. Similar to trends observed in DIC, substantially higher values for dissolved organic carbon (DOC were measured in boreal forest lakes than in arctic tundra lakes. This was likely due to higher amounts of catchment-derived DOC entering the lakes from coniferous leaf litter sources. Relative to arctic tundra lakes, boreal forest lakes had higher nutrient concentrations, particularly total nitrogen (TN, likely due to warmer conditions, a longer growing season, and higher precipitation, which would enhance nutrient cycling and primary productivity. Results suggest that modern aquatic environments at opposite sides of the central Canadian arctic treeline (i.e. boreal forest and arctic tundra exhibit distinct differences in water chemistry and physical conditions. These limnological trends may provide important information on possible future changes with additional warming.

  18. Distribution of dissolved green-house gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in Lakes Edward and George: Results from the first field cruise of the HIPE project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Alberto V.; Morana, Cédric D. T.; Lambert, Thibault; Okello, William; Bouillon, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, reservoirs) are quantitatively important components of the global budgets of atmospheric emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO2, CH4, N2O). Available data indicate that a very large fraction of CO2 and CH4 emissions from rivers and reservoirs occurs at tropical latitudes. Data on GHGs at tropical latitudes from lakes however are much more scarse, and the relative importance of emissions, in particular in Africa, remains to be determined. Large tropical lakes are net autotrophic (hence potentially sinks for atmospheric CO2) due generally low dissolved organic carbon concentrations, seasonally near constant light and temperature conditions, and generally deep water columns favourable for export of organic matter to depth. This sharply contrasts with their much better documented temperate and boreal counterparts, usually considered as CO2 sources to the atmosphere sustained by net heterotrophy. Here, we report a data-set of dissolved CO2, CH4, N2O obtained in October 2016 in Lakes Edward and George and adjacent streams and crater lakes in the frame of Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) HIPE (Human impacts on ecosystem health and resources of Lake Edward, http://www.co2.ulg.ac.be/hipe/) project. Lake George and part of Lake Edward were sinks for atmospheric CO2 and N2O due to high primary production and denitrification in sediments, respectively, and modest sources of CH4 to the atmosphere. Sampled rivers and streams were oversaturated in CO2 and CH4 and close to atmospheric equilibrium with regards to N2O. Spatial variations within rivers and streams were related to elevation and vegetation characteristics on the catchments (savannah versus forest). Levels of CO2, CH4, and N2O were within the range of those we reported in other African rivers. Crater lakes acted as sinks for atmospheric CO2 and N2O but were extremely over-saturated in CH4, due to intense primary production sustained by cyanobacteria. These CH4 levels

  19. Macrophytes and periphyton carbon subsidies to bacterioplankton and zooplankton in a shallow eutrophic lake in tropical China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kluijver, A.; Ning, J.; Liu, Z.; Jeppesen, E.; Gulati, R.D.; Middelburg, J.J.

    The subsidy of carbon derived from macrophytes and associated periphyton to bacterioplankton and zooplankton in subtropical shallow eutrophic Huizhou West Lake in China was analyzed using carbon stable isotope signatures. A restored part of the lake dominated by macrophytes was compared with an

  20. Macrophytes and periphyton carbon subsidies to bacterioplankton and zooplankton in a shallow eutrophic lake in tropical China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kluijver, A.; Ning, J.; Liu, Z.; Jeppesen, E.; Gulati, R.D.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2015-01-01

    The subsidy of carbon derived from macrophytes and associated periphyton to bacterioplankton and zooplankton in subtropical shallow eutrophic Huizhou West Lake in China was analyzed using carbon stable isotope signatures. A restored part of the lake dominated by macrophytes was compared with an

  1. The Path Forward from Paris: the Challenge for Tropical Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, C.

    2016-12-01

    The pledges of emissions reductions put forth at the COP21 in Paris fall short of ensuring the desired guardrail of 2 C warming, let alone the more stringent, but necessary, goal of 1.5 C warming if we want to minimize the increasing risks of climate change over both the short term of decades and the long term of centuries. Decarbonization of the global economy is mandatory, which implies a gargantuan challenge of decarbonizing the energy system. Given the likelihood of decreasing strength of the natural sinks in the global oceans and land biota as warming progresses, it may be necessary to reach nearly zero net emissions by midcentury and even negative net emissions by the end of the century. In addition to massive and rapid implementation of renewable energy systems, desirable mitigation trajectories involve large-scale reforestation and ecosystem restoration and also bioenergy capture and storage systems (BECCS). Tropical countries can play an important role to meet both goals as long as they are able to implement sustainable agriculture at the large scale that is nearly carbon-neutral and resilient to unavoidable climate change. And reaching sustainability in the agricultural sector—remembering that agricultural direct emissions and indirect emissions due to deforestation account for almost one quarter of global emissions—is under the constraint to meet food security for all, that is, food production has to grow 70% by midcentury, with concomitant reduction of waste in the food chain. I will take the example of mitigation options for Brazil—a large tropical country with per capita emissions of about 7.5 ton CO2-eq—to illustrate sustainable development trajectories of reaching carbon neutrality by midcentury. That will imply developing a modern, more productive carbon-neutral agriculture within the next two decades, reducing tropical deforestation to nearly zero within a decade, restoring ecosystems and increasing renewable energy use to over 80% of its

  2. Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl, Kristina A [Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, MA (United States); Broccoli, Anthony J [Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Stouffer, Ronald J [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2005-03-01

    This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8 C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations

  3. The comparative limnology of Lakes Nyos and Monoun, Cameroon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kling, George; Evans, William C; Tanyileke, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Lakes Nyos and Monoun are known for the dangerous accumulation of CO2 dissolved in stagnant bottom water, but the shallow waters that conceal this hazard are dilute and undergo seasonal changes similar to other deep crater lakes in the tropics. Here we discuss these changes with reference to climatic and water-column data collected at both lakes during the years following the gas release disasters in the mid-1980s. The small annual range in mean daily air temperatures leads to an equally small annual range of surface water temperatures (ΔT ~6–7 °C), reducing deep convective mixing of the water column. Weak mixing aids the establishment of meromixis, a requisite condition for the gradual buildup of CO2 in bottom waters and perhaps the unusual condition that most explains the rarity of such lakes. Within the mixolimnion, a seasonal thermocline forms each spring and shallow diel thermoclines may be sufficiently strong to isolate surface water and allow primary production to reduce PCO2 below 300 μatm, inducing a net influx of CO2 from the atmosphere. Surface water O2 and pH typically reach maxima at this time, with occasional O2 oversaturation. Mixing to the chemocline occurs in both lakes during the winter dry season, primarily due to low humidity and cool night time air temperature. An additional period of variable mixing, occasionally reaching the chemocline in Lake Monoun, occurs during the summer monsoon season in response to increased frequency of major storms. The mixolimnion encompassed the upper ~40–50 m of Lake Nyos and upper ~15–20 m of Lake Monoun prior to the installation of degassing pipes in 2001 and 2003, respectively. Degassing caused chemoclines to deepen rapidly. Piping of anoxic, high-TDS bottom water to the lake surface has had a complex effect on the mixolimnion. Algal growth stimulated by increased nutrients (N and P) initially stimulated photosynthesis and raised surface water O2 in Lake Nyos, but O2 removal through oxidation of iron

  4. Adapt, move or die - how will tropical coral reef fishes cope with ocean warming?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habary, Adam; Johansen, Jacob L.; Nay, Tiffany J.

    2017-01-01

    poleward, away from ocean warming hotspots where temperatures 2-3 °C above long-term annual means can compromise critical physiological processes. We examined the capacity of a model species - a thermally sensitive coral reef fish, Chromis viridis (Pomacentridae) - to use preference behaviour to regulate...

  5. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in the Poiqu/Bhote Koshi/Sun Koshi River Basin in the Central Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narendra Raj Khanal

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayas have experienced several glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs, and the risk of GLOFs is now increasing in the context of global warming. Poiqu watershed in the Tibet Autonomous Region, China, also known as the Bhote Koshi and Sun Koshi downstream in Nepal, has been identified as highly prone to GLOFs. This study explored the distribution of and changes in glacial lakes, past GLOFs and the resulting losses, risk from potential future GLOFs, and risk reduction initiatives within the watershed. A relationship was established between lake area and volume of lake water based on data from 33 lakes surveyed within the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, and the maximum possible discharge was estimated using this and other previously developed empirical equations. We recommend different strategies to reduce GLOF risk and highlight the need for a glacial lake monitoring and early-warning system. We also recommend strong regional cooperation, especially on issues related to transboundary rivers.

  6. Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Cantin, N. E.; Cohen, A. L.; Karnauskas, K. B.; Tarrant, A. M.; McCorkle, D. C.

    2010-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) across much of the tropics has increased by 0.4° to 1°C since the mid-1970s. A parallel increase in the frequency and extent of coral bleaching and mortality has fueled concern that climate change poses a major threat to the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Here we show that steadily rising SSTs, not ocean acidification, are already driving dramatic changes in the growth of an important reef-building coral in the central Red Sea. Three-dimensional computed tomography analyses of the massive coral Diploastrea heliopora reveal that skeletal growth of apparently healthy colonies has declined by 30% since 1998. The same corals responded to a short-lived warm event in 1941/1942, but recovered within 3 years as the ocean cooled. Combining our data with climate model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we predict that should the current warming trend continue, this coral could cease growing altogether by 2070.

  7. Impact of global warming on the typhoon intensities during 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, N. Y.; Yang, S. H.; Elsner, J.; Chun, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The climate of 2015 was characterized by a strong El Nino, global warmth, and record setting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity for western North Pacific typhoons. In this study, the highest TC intensity in 32 years (1984-2015) is shown to be a consequence of above normal TC activity—following natural internal variation—and greater efficiency of intensity. The efficiency of intensity (EINT) is termed the `blasting effect' and refers to typhoon intensification at the expense of occurrence. Statistical models show that the EINT is mostly due to the anomalous warmth in the environment as indicated by global mean sea-surface temperature. In comparison, the EINT due to El Nino is negligibly small. This implies that the record-setting intensity of 2015 might not have occurred without environmental warming and suggests that a year with even greater TC intensity is possible in the near future when above normal activity coincides with another record EINT due to continuous warming.

  8. Ocean Warming Slows Coral Growth in the Central Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Cantin, N. E.

    2010-07-15

    Sea surface temperature (SST) across much of the tropics has increased by 0.4° to 1°C since the mid-1970s. A parallel increase in the frequency and extent of coral bleaching and mortality has fueled concern that climate change poses a major threat to the survival of coral reef ecosystems worldwide. Here we show that steadily rising SSTs, not ocean acidification, are already driving dramatic changes in the growth of an important reef-building coral in the central Red Sea. Three-dimensional computed tomography analyses of the massive coral Diploastrea heliopora reveal that skeletal growth of apparently healthy colonies has declined by 30% since 1998. The same corals responded to a short-lived warm event in 1941/1942, but recovered within 3 years as the ocean cooled. Combining our data with climate model simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we predict that should the current warming trend continue, this coral could cease growing altogether by 2070.

  9. Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

    2012-10-01

    Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Oceanic migration behaviour of tropical Pacific eels from Vanuatu

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schabetsberger, R; Økland, F; Aarestrup, K

    2013-01-01

    Information on oceanic migrations and spawning areas of tropical Pacific freshwater eels (genus Anguilla) is very limited. Lake Letas and its single outflowing river, Mbe Solomul on Gaua Island, Vanuatu, were surveyed for large migrating individuals. Twenty-four Anguilla marmorata (87 to 142 cm),...... impact of the lunar cycle on the upper limit of migration depths was found in A. marmorata (full moon: 230 m, new moon: 170 m). These behaviours may be explained as a trade-off between predator avoidance and the necessity to maintain a sufficiently high metabolism for migration....

  11. Sea surface temperature inter-hemispheric dipole and its relation to tropical precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Fei-Fei

    2013-01-01

    Using different SST datasets, the variability of zonal mean SSTs is investigated. Besides the global warming mode, the variability is dominated by one equatorially symmetric mode and one antisymmetric mode. The former is most pronounced in the Pacific and dominated by interannual variability, corresponding to the ENSO signature. The latter features an inter-hemispheric dipole-like pattern and is referred to as the SST inter-hemispheric dipole (SSTID). The SSTID and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation are found to be related but distinct in the spatial pattern. Observational analysis shows that the SSTID significantly influences tropical rainfall and contributes to the north–south asymmetry of tropical precipitation on multidecadal timescales. The observed SSTID and its relation to the tropical rainfall are realistically reproduced in a control simulation with the UKMO-HadCM3 climate model. Results from the UKMO-HadCM3 simulation suggest that the SSTID is related to the variability of the global ocean northward cross-equatorial heat transport. (letter)

  12. Potential impact of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean-Western Pacific on the variability of typhoon landfall on the China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lei; Chen, Sheng; Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Dongxiao; Wang, Xin

    2017-12-01

    The landfall activity of typhoons (TYs) along the coast of China during July-August-September (JAS) shows significant interdecadal variation during 1965-2010. We identify three sub-periods of TY landfall activity in JAS along the China coast in this period, with more TY landfall during 1965-1978 (Period I) and 1998-2010 (Period III), and less during 1982-1995 (Period II). We find that the interdecadal variation might be related to the combined effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase changes and sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the tropical Indian Ocean and Western Pacific (IO-WP). During the negative PDO phase in Periods I and III, a cyclonic anomaly is located in the western North Pacific (WNP), inducing easterly flow in its northern part, which favors TY landfall along the eastern China coast. Warm SST anomalies over the tropical IO-WP during Period III induce an anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the WNP through both the Gill-pattern response to the warm SST in the tropical IO and the anomalous meridional circulation induced by the warm SST in the tropical WNP. As a result, the northern South China Sea and WNP (10°-20° N) are dominated by southeasterly flow, which favors TYs making landfall on both the southern and eastern China coast. With both landfalling-favorable conditions satisfied, there are significantly more TYs making landfall along the China coast during Period III than during Period I, which shows cool SST anomalies in the tropical IO-WP.

  13. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2013-09-19

    Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

  14. Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.

    2000-10-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an 11-yr period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and interannual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important.To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444-km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain-rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared with those for nontropical cyclone systems.The main results of this study indicate that 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maximum tropical cyclone rainfall is poleward (5°-10° latitude depending on longitude) of the maximum nontropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% off the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the Intertropical Convergence Zone; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Niño years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

  15. Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of

  16. Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Brown, Molly E.

    2009-01-01

    Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that is grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be determined by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices and policies. This paper discusses several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14% between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21st century food availability in some countries by disrupting moisture transports and bringing down dry air over crop growing areas. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced rainfall during the main growing season along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, this study presents an analysis of emerging

  17. Unprecedented 2015/2016 Indo-Pacific Heat Transfer Speeds Up Tropical Pacific Heat Recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Michael; Alonso Balmaseda, Magdalena; Haimberger, Leopold

    2018-04-01

    El Niño events are characterized by anomalously warm tropical Pacific surface waters and concurrent ocean heat discharge, a precursor of subsequent cold La Niña conditions. Here we show that El Niño 2015/2016 departed from this norm: despite extreme peak surface temperatures, tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S) upper ocean heat content increased by 9.6 ± 1.7 ZJ (1 ZJ = 1021 J), in stark contrast to the previous strong El Niño in 1997/1998 (-11.5 ± 2.9 ZJ). Unprecedented reduction of Indonesian Throughflow volume and heat transport played a key role in the anomalous 2015/2016 event. We argue that this anomaly is linked with the previously documented intensified warming and associated rising sea levels in the Indian Ocean during the last decade. Additionally, increased absorption of solar radiation acted to dampen Pacific ocean heat content discharge. These results explain the weak and short-lived La Niña conditions in 2016/2017 and indicate the need for realistic representation of Indo-Pacific energy transfers for skillful seasonal-to-decadal predictions.

  18. Temperature dependence of plankton community metabolism in the subtropical and tropical oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Garcia-Corral, Lara S.; Holding, Johnna M.; Carrillo-de-Albornoz, Paloma; Steckbauer, Alexandra; Pé rez-Lorenzo, Marí a; Navarro, Nuria; Serret, Pablo; Gasol, Josep M.; Moran, Xose Anxelu G.; Estrada, Marta; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Bení tez-Barrios, Veró nica; Agusti, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2017-01-01

    Here we assess the temperature dependence of the metabolic rates (gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and the ratio GPP/CR) of oceanic plankton communities. We compile data from 133 stations of the Malaspina 2010 Expedition, distributed among the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. We used the in vitro technique to measured metabolic rates during 24 h incubations at three different sampled depths: surface, 20%, and 1% of the photosynthetically active radiation measured at surface. We also measured the % of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) penetrating at surface waters. GPP and CR rates increased with warming, albeit different responses were observed for each sampled depth. The overall GPP/CR ratio declined with warming. Higher activation energies (E-a) were derived for both processes (GPP(Chla) = 0.97; CRChla = 1.26; CRHPA = 0.95 eV) compared to those previously reported. The Indian Ocean showed the highest E-a (GPP(Chla) = 1.70; CRChla = 1.48; CRHPA = 0.57 eV), while the Atlantic Ocean showed the lowest (GPP(Chla) = 0.86; CRChla = 0.77; CRHPA = -0.13 eV). We believe that the difference between previous assessments and the ones presented here can be explained by the overrepresentation of Atlantic communities in the previous data sets. We found that UVB radiation also affects the temperature dependence of surface GPP, which decreased rather than increased under high levels of UVB. Ocean warming, which causes stratification and oligotrophication of the subtropical and tropical oceans, may lead to reduced surface GPP as a result of increased penetration of UVB radiation.

  19. Temperature dependence of plankton community metabolism in the subtropical and tropical oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Garcia-Corral, Lara S.

    2017-06-22

    Here we assess the temperature dependence of the metabolic rates (gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and the ratio GPP/CR) of oceanic plankton communities. We compile data from 133 stations of the Malaspina 2010 Expedition, distributed among the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. We used the in vitro technique to measured metabolic rates during 24 h incubations at three different sampled depths: surface, 20%, and 1% of the photosynthetically active radiation measured at surface. We also measured the % of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) penetrating at surface waters. GPP and CR rates increased with warming, albeit different responses were observed for each sampled depth. The overall GPP/CR ratio declined with warming. Higher activation energies (E-a) were derived for both processes (GPP(Chla) = 0.97; CRChla = 1.26; CRHPA = 0.95 eV) compared to those previously reported. The Indian Ocean showed the highest E-a (GPP(Chla) = 1.70; CRChla = 1.48; CRHPA = 0.57 eV), while the Atlantic Ocean showed the lowest (GPP(Chla) = 0.86; CRChla = 0.77; CRHPA = -0.13 eV). We believe that the difference between previous assessments and the ones presented here can be explained by the overrepresentation of Atlantic communities in the previous data sets. We found that UVB radiation also affects the temperature dependence of surface GPP, which decreased rather than increased under high levels of UVB. Ocean warming, which causes stratification and oligotrophication of the subtropical and tropical oceans, may lead to reduced surface GPP as a result of increased penetration of UVB radiation.

  20. Spatiotemporal variability of carbon dioxide and methane in a eutrophic lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loken, Luke; Crawford, John; Schramm, Paul; Stadler, Philipp; Stanley, Emily

    2017-04-01

    Lakes are important regulators of global carbon cycling and conduits of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; however, most efflux estimates for individual lakes are based on extrapolations from a single location. Within-lake variability in carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) arises from differences in water sources, physical mixing, and local transformations; all of which can be influenced by anthropogenic disturbances and vary at multiple temporal and spatial scales. During the 2016 open water season (March - December), we mapped surface water concentrations of CO2 and CH4 weekly in a eutrophic lake (Lake Mendota, WI, USA), which has a predominately agricultural and urban watershed. In total we produced 26 maps of each gas based on 10,000 point measurements distributed across the lake surface. Both gases displayed relatively consistent spatial patterns over the stratified period but exhibited remarkable heterogeneity on each sample date. CO2 was generally undersaturated (global mean: 0.84X atmospheric saturation) throughout the lake's pelagic zone and often differed near river inlets and shorelines. The lake was routinely extremely supersaturated with CH4 (global mean: 105X atmospheric saturation) with greater concentrations in littoral areas that contained organic-rich sediments. During fall mixis, both CO2 and CH4 increased substantially, and concentrations were not uniform across the lake surface. CO2 and CH4 were higher on the upwind side of the lake due to upwelling of enriched hypolimnetic water. While the lake acted as a modest sink for atmospheric CO2 during the stratified period, the lake released substantial amounts of CO2 during turnover and continually emitted CH4, offsetting any reduction in atmospheric warming potential from summertime CO2 uptake. These data-rich maps illustrate how lake-wide surface concentrations and lake-scale efflux estimates based on single point measurements diverge from spatially weighted calculations. Both gases are not

  1. Chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments reveal the submillennial winter/spring climate variability in the northwestern Mediterranean region throughout the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pla, Sergi [Queen' s University, PEARL, Department of Biology, Kingston, ON (Canada); Catalan, Jordi [CSIC, CSIC-UB Limnology Group, Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB), Blanes (Spain)

    2005-02-01

    In the last decade, much effort was dedicated to the reconstruction of past climate at high temporal resolution. Here, we show the suitability of chrysophyte cysts from lake sediments for revealing continental climate variability when used in sensitive sites, such as those in high mountains. We demonstrate that altitude is a main factor influencing the present distribution of chrysophytes and develop a transfer function to evaluate the local ''altitude anomaly'' on a lake site throughout time. Based on our knowledge of chrysophyte ecology, the altitude anomalies are interpreted as winter/spring climate signatures. The method was applied to a Holocene record from a lake in the Pyrenees showing submillennial climatic variability in this northwestern Mediterranean zone. A warming trend was present from the early Holocene to 4 kyear BP. Comparison with pollen-based reconstructions of summer temperatures denoted a contrasting decrease in continentality between the two parts of the Holocene. Oscillations of 1 cycle per ca. 2,000 years appeared throughout the record. The warmest Holocene winters were recorded during the Medieval Warm Period at ca. AD900 and 450 and the Roman Warm Period (2.7-2.4 kyear BP). Winters in the period AD1,050-1,175 were inferred to be as cold as in the Little Ice Age. The period between 3 and 7 kyear BPshowed lower intensity in the fluctuations than in early and late Holocene. The cold event, 8,200 years ago, appeared embedded in a warm fluctuation. Another cold fluctuation was recorded around 9 kyear BP, which is in agreement with Irish and Greenland records. (orig.)

  2. Ecological traps in shallow coastal waters-Potential effect of heat-waves in tropical and temperate organisms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catarina Vinagre

    Full Text Available Mortality of fish has been reported in tide pools during warm days. That means that tide pools are potential ecological traps for coastal organisms, which happen when environmental changes cause maladaptive habitat selection. Heat-waves are predicted to increase in intensity, duration and frequency, making it relevant to investigate the role of tide pools as traps for coastal organisms. However, heat waves can also lead to acclimatization. If organisms undergo acclimatization prior to being trapped in tide pools, their survival chances may increase. Common tide pool species (46 species in total were collected at a tropical and a temperate area and their upper thermal limits estimated. They were maintained for 10 days at their mean summer sea surface temperature +3°C, mimicking a heat-wave. Their upper thermal limits were estimated again, after this acclimation period, to calculate each species' acclimation response. The upper thermal limits of the organisms were compared to the temperatures attained by tide pool waters to investigate if 1 tide pools could be considered ecological traps and 2 if the increase in upper thermal limits elicited by the acclimation period could make the organisms less vulnerable to this threat. Tropical tide pools were found to be ecological traps for an important number of common coastal species, given that they can attain temperatures higher than the upper thermal limits of most of those species. Tide pools are not ecological traps in temperate zones. Tropical species have higher thermal limits than temperate species, but lower acclimation response, that does not allow them to survive the maximum habitat temperature of tropical tide pools. This way, tropical coastal organisms seem to be, not only more vulnerable to climate warming per se, but also to an increase in the ecological trap effect of tide pools.

  3. Tracking Organic Carbon Transport From the Stordalen Mire to Glacial Lake Tornetrask, Abisko, Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, M. A.; Hamilton, B. T.; Spry, E.; Johnson, J. E.; Palace, M. W.; McCalley, C. K.; Varner, R. K.; Bothner, W. A.

    2016-12-01

    In subarctic regions, labile organic carbon from thawing permafrost and productivity of terrestrial and aquatic vegetation are sources of carbon to lake sediments. Methane is produced in lake sediments from the decomposition of organic carbon at rates affected by vegetation presence and type as well as sediment temperature. Recent research in the Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden has suggested that labile organic carbon sources in young, shallow lake sediments yield the highest in situ sediment methane concentrations. Ebullition (or bubbling) of this methane is predominantly controlled by seasonal warming. In this project we sampled stream, glacial and post-glacial lake sediments along a drainage transect through the Stordalen Mire into the large glacial Lake Torneträsk. Our results indicate that the highest methane and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations were observed in lake and stream sediments in the upper 25 centimeters, consistent with previous studies. C/N ratios range from 8 to 32, and suggest that a mix of aquatic and terrestrial vegetation sources dominate the sedimentary record. Although water transport occurs throughout the mire, major depositional centers for sediments and organic carbon occur within the lakes and prohibit young, labile TOC from entering the larger glacial Lake Torneträsk. The lack of an observed sediment fan at the outlet of the Mire to the lake is consistent with this observation. Our results suggest that carbon produced in the mire stays in the mire, allowing methane production to be greater in the mire bound lakes and streams than in the larger adjacent glacial lake.

  4. The effects of the Indo-Pacific warm pool on the stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xin; Li, Jianping; Xie, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Yanjie; Zhao, Sen; Zhang, Jiankai; Li, Yang

    2017-03-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays a key role in influencing East Asian climate, and even affects global-scale climate change. This study defines IPWP Niño and IPWP Niña events to represent the warm and cold phases of IPWP SST anomalies, respectively, and investigates the effects of these events on stratospheric circulation and temperature. Results from simulations forced by observed SST anomalies during IPWP Niño and Niña events show that the tropical lower stratosphere tends to cool during IPWP Niño events and warm during IPWP Niña events. The responses of the northern and southern polar vortices to IPWP Niño events are fairly symmetric, as both vortices are significantly warmed and weakened. However, the responses of the two polar vortices to IPWP Niña events are of opposite sign: the northern polar vortex is warmed and weakened, but the southern polar vortex is cooled and strengthened. These features are further confirmed by composite analysis using reanalysis data. A possible dynamical mechanism connecting IPWP SST to the stratosphere is suggested, in which IPWP Niño and Niña events excite teleconnections, one similar to the Pacific-North America pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a Rossby wave train in the Southern Hemisphere, which project onto the climatological wave in the mid-high latitudes, intensifying the upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere and, in turn, affecting the polar vortex.

  5. Final Results From the Circumarctic Lakes Observation Network (CALON) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkel, K. M.; Arp, C. D.; Eisner, W. R.; Frey, K. E.; Grosse, G.; Jones, B. M.; Kim, C.; Lenters, J. D.; Liu, H.; Townsend-Small, A.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2012, the physical and biogeochemical properties of ~60 lakes in northern Alaska have been investigated under CALON, a project to document landscape-scale variability of Arctic lakes in permafrost terrain. The network has ten nodes along two latitudinal transects extending inland 200 km from the Arctic Ocean. A meteorological station is deployed at each node and six representative lakes instrumented and continuously monitored, with winter and summer visits for synoptic assessment of lake conditions. Over the 4-year period, winter and summer climatology varied to create a rich range of lake responses over a short period. For example, winter 2012-13 was very cold with a thin snowpack producing thick ice across the region. Subsequent years had relatively warm winters, yet regionally variable snow resulted in differing gradients of ice thickness. Ice-out timing was unusually late in 2014 and unusually early in 2015. Lakes are typically well-mixed and largely isothermal, with minor thermal stratification occurring in deeper lakes during calm, sunny periods in summer. Lake water temperature records and morphometric data were used to estimate the ground thermal condition beneath 28 lakes. Application of a thermal equilibrium steady-state model suggests a talik penetrating the permafrost under many larger lakes, but lake geochemical data do not indicate a significant contribution of subpermafrost groundwater. Biogeochemical data reveal distinct spatial and seasonal variability in chlorophyll biomass, chromophoric dissolved organic carbon (CDOM), and major cations/anions. Generally, waters sampled beneath ice in April had distinctly higher concentrations of inorganic solutes and methane compared with August. Chlorophyll concentrations and CDOM absorption were higher in April, suggesting significant biological/biogeochemical activity under lake ice. Lakes are a positive source of methane in summer, and some also emit nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide. As part of the

  6. Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

    2004-03-29

    We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

  7. Recent changes in Imja Glacial Lake and its damming moraine in the Nepal Himalaya revealed by in situ surveys and multi-temporal ASTER imagery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujita, Koji; Sakai, Akiko; Nuimura, Takayuki; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Sharma, Rishi R

    2009-01-01

    Changes in the area and bathymetry of Imja Glacial Lake and in the elevation of its damming moraine, Khumbu region, Nepal Himalaya are investigated. Previously reported changes in the lake area have been updated by multi-temporal ASTER images, which revealed a decreased expansion rate after 2000. A provisional expansion of the lake observed in 2004, from which some studies concluded an accelerated lake expansion due to global warming, has, from 2005, subsided to the glacier surface. Bathymetric changes for the period 1992-2002 that were first obtained for Himalayan glacial lakes suggest that the melting of debris-covered ice beneath the lake is insignificant in terms of the increase in lake volume, and that the retreat of a glacier in contact with the lake by calving is essential for the lake's expansion. Changes in the height of a damming moraine for the period 2001-2007 suggest a continuous surface lowering near the lake, though the lowering rates are smaller than those for the period 1989-1994.

  8. Leaf litter decomposition rates increase with rising mean annual temperature in Hawaiian tropical montane wet forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lori D. Bothwell

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Decomposing litter in forest ecosystems supplies nutrients to plants, carbon to heterotrophic soil microorganisms and is a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. Despite its essential role in carbon and nutrient cycling, the temperature sensitivity of leaf litter decay in tropical forest ecosystems remains poorly resolved, especially in tropical montane wet forests where the warming trend may be amplified compared to tropical wet forests at lower elevations. We quantified leaf litter decomposition rates along a highly constrained 5.2 °C mean annual temperature (MAT gradient in tropical montane wet forests on the Island of Hawaii. Dominant vegetation, substrate type and age, soil moisture, and disturbance history are all nearly constant across this gradient, allowing us to isolate the effect of rising MAT on leaf litter decomposition and nutrient release. Leaf litter decomposition rates were a positive linear function of MAT, causing the residence time of leaf litter on the forest floor to decline by ∼31 days for each 1 °C increase in MAT. Our estimate of the Q10 temperature coefficient for leaf litter decomposition was 2.17, within the commonly reported range for heterotrophic organic matter decomposition (1.5–2.5 across a broad range of ecosystems. The percentage of leaf litter nitrogen (N remaining after six months declined linearly with increasing MAT from ∼88% of initial N at the coolest site to ∼74% at the warmest site. The lack of net N immobilization during all three litter collection periods at all MAT plots indicates that N was not limiting to leaf litter decomposition, regardless of temperature. These results suggest that leaf litter decay in tropical montane wet forests may be more sensitive to rising MAT than in tropical lowland wet forests, and that increased rates of N release from decomposing litter could delay or prevent progressive N limitation to net primary productivity with climate warming.

  9. Temporal Behavior of Lake Size-Distribution in a Thawing Permafrost Landscape in Northwestern Siberia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Mård Karlsson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Arctic warming alters regional hydrological systems, as permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness and in turn alters the pathways of water flow through the landscape. Further, permafrost thaw may change the connectivity between deeper and shallower groundwater and surface water altering the terrestrial water balance and distribution. Thermokarst lakes and wetlands in the Arctic offer a window into such changes as these landscape elements depend on permafrost and are some of the most dynamic and widespread features in Arctic lowland regions. In this study we used Landsat remotely sensed imagery to investigate potential shifts in thermokarst lake size-distributions, which may be brought about by permafrost thaw, over three distinct time periods (1973, 1987–1988, and 2007–2009 in three hydrological basins in northwestern Siberia. Results revealed fluctuations in total area and number of lakes over time, with both appearing and disappearing lakes alongside stable lakes. On the whole basin scales, there is no indication of any sustained long-term change in thermokarst lake area or lake size abundance over time. This statistical temporal consistency indicates that spatially variable change effects on local permafrost conditions have driven the individual lake changes that have indeed occurred over time. The results highlight the importance of using multi-temporal remote sensing data that can reveal complex spatiotemporal variations distinguishing fluctuations from sustained change trends, for accurate interpretation of thermokarst lake changes and their possible drivers in periods of climate and permafrost change.

  10. LIMNOLOGY, LAKE BASINS, LAKE WATERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petre GÂŞTESCU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Limnology is a border discipline between geography, hydrology and biology, and is also closely connected with other sciences, from it borrows research methods. Physical limnology (the geography of lakes, studies lake biotopes, and biological limnology (the biology of lakes, studies lake biocoenoses. The father of limnology is the Swiss scientist F.A. Forel, the author of a three-volume entitled Le Leman: monographie limnologique (1892-1904, which focuses on the geology physics, chemistry and biology of lakes. He was also author of the first textbook of limnology, Handbuch der Seenkunde: allgemeine Limnologie,(1901. Since both the lake biotope and its biohydrocoenosis make up a single whole, the lake and lakes, respectively, represent the most typical systems in nature. They could be called limnosystems (lacustrine ecosystems, a microcosm in itself, as the American biologist St.A. Forbes put it (1887.

  11. How will the impact of El Nino and La Nina on Australia change under global warming?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Power, Scott; Morgan, Adam; Moise, Aurel; Grainger, Simon; Smith, Ian; Reeder, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound influence on Australia. How will this influence change under global warming? Will El Nino droughts become more frequent or more intense? Will La Nina events tend to produce more or less rainfall over Australia than they have in the past? Has ENSO already changed? Has ENSO's impact on Australia already changed? Will global warming be 'El Nino-like'? How well do current models simulate ENSO and how reliable are their projections for ENSO? Here we will provide answers to these questions drawing on the IPCC (2007) report and recent research conducted here in Australia. We will see that: ENSO and its impact on Australia varied substantially on decadal and longer time-scales over the past century; The frequency of El Nino events appeared to increase; The Walker Circulation, which is one of the most prominent and important atmospheric circulations in the world, is centred in the Pacific Ocean and is strongly modulated by ENSO. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - which is used to track ENSO and the strength of the Walker Circulation -has trended down over the past century. The tropical Pacific - the engine room for ENSO - has warmed to unprecedented levels. The Walker Circulation weakens in some models in response to global warming. The relationship between Australian rainfall, temperature and the SOI has changed. The IPCC WG1 Report (2007) concluded that'... there is no consistent indication at this time of discernable changes in ENSO amplitude or frequency in the 21st century'. Even if ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific does not change, ENSO's impact on Australia might. Evidence supporting this hypothesis will be provided. Finally, we will discuss what this all means for Australia

  12. The effect of the United States Great Lakes on the maintenance of derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, M.; Sparks, J.; Graham, R.

    2003-04-01

    The primary aim of this research is to investigate the influence of the United States Great Lakes on the intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). One of the greatest nowcast challenges during the warm season is anticipating the impact of the Great Lakes on severe convection, particularly MCSs capable of producing damaging widespread windstorms known as derechos. Since a major derecho activity corridor lies over the Great Lakes region, it is important to understand the effects of the Lakes on the intensity and propagation of severe wind producing MCSs. Specific objectives of the research include: 1) The development of a short-term climatology of MCS events that have impacted the Great Lakes region over the past seven years; 2) An analysis of radar, satellite, surface (including buoy and lighthouse observations), and lake surface temperature data to determine the environmental conditions impacting the evolution of MCSs passing over a Great Lake; 3) An examination of MCS initiation times and seasonal frequencies of occurrence to delineate temporal consistencies in MCS evolution due to changing lake surface temperatures; and 4) The development of conceptual and forecast models to help anticipate MCS intensity and morphology as these systems interact with the Great Lakes environment.

  13. Food Web Responses to Artificial Mixing in a Small Boreal Lake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauri Arvola

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to simulate food web responses of small boreal lakes to changes in thermal stratification due to global warming, a 4 year whole-lake manipulation experiment was performed. Within that time, period lake mixing was intensified artificially during two successive summers. Complementary data from a nearby lake of similar size and basic water chemistry were used as a reference. Phytoplankton biomass and chlorophyll a did not respond to the greater mixing depth but an increase was observed in the proportional abundance of diatoms, and the proportional abundance of cryptophytes also increased immediately after the onset of mixing. Obligate anoxic green sulphur bacteria vanished at the onset of mixing but gradually recovered after re-establishment of hypolimnetic anoxic conditions. No major effect on crustacean zooplankton was found, but their diversity increased in the metalimnion. During the mixing, the density of rotifers declined but protozoan density increased in the hypolimnion. Littoral benthic invertebrate density increased during the mixing due to Ephemeroptera, Asellus aquaticus and Chironomidae, whereas the density of Chaoborus larvae declined during mixing and lower densities were still recorded one year after the treatment. No structural changes in fish community were found although gillnet catches increased after the onset of the study. The early growth of perch (Perca fluviatilis increased compared to the years before the mixing and in comparison to the reference lake, suggesting improved food availability in the experimental lake. Although several food web responses to the greater mixing depth were found, their persistence and ecological significance were strongly dependent on the extent of the disturbance. To better understand the impacts of wind stress on small lakes, long term whole-lake experiments are needed.

  14. Paleohydrology of tropical South America and paleoceanography of the tropical Atlantic as deduced from two new sediment cores on the Brazilian continental slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nace, T.; Baker, P. A.; Dwyer, G. S.; Silva, C. G.; Hollander, D. J.; Rigsby, C. A.; Giosan, L.; Burns, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    Paleoclimate/paleoceanographic reconstructions of the Amazon Basin, Brazilian Nordeste, and western equatorial Atlantic have been undertaken on two new sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope (Core CDH-5 at 1708 mbsl, 4N, 48W, 32m long, ~30 ka record; Core CDH-86 at 3708 mbsl, 0N/S, 44W, 30m long, ~100ka record). High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, and Ca are used to define the paleohydrologic history of the adjacent continent at both sites. Large and abrupt excursions of Ti/Ca ratios are observed in both cores, but are significantly better defined in the southern core, representative of Nordeste conditions. In this core there are a total of 9 Ti/Ca excursions, the oldest recovered dating to ~98ka. These excursions correlate well with Heinrich events from the North Atlantic. High-resolution stable oxygen isotopic analysis and Mg/Ca paleothermometry undertaken on the near-surface-dwelling planktic foraminiferal species Globierinoides ruber provide a picture of paleoceanographic forcings in the western equatorial Atlantic. The northern and southern cores respectively exhibit rapid warming of ~3C and ~3.5C between the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene. Furthermore, in almost all cases, during the last glacial stage, there was a 0.5C to 2C warming of the western equatorial Atlantic during the periods of high Ti/Ca ratios that correlate with Heinrich events. Thus, as observed in some previous studies, the western equatorial Atlantic was warm and the adjacent southern tropical continent was wet at the same time that the high-latitude North Atlantic was cold. The largely accepted paradigm is that Northern hemisphere cold events result in a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), contributing to drier conditions at the northern extent of the ITCZ annual range (Cariaco Basin) and increased precipitation in the southern tropics of South America. The ITCZ appears to have been influenced by millennial variability of

  15. From intermittent to persistent cyanobacterial blooms: identifying the main drivers in an urban tropical reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cleber C. Figueredo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Eutrophication has impacted water bodies around the world. Knowledge on how to manage and restore these systems is urgently needed in order to maintain adequate water quality. However, causes and consequences of eutrophication may differ among lakes located in tropical and temperate regions. The eutrophication process is better understood for temperate lakes due to the availability of a larger number of studies and longer time-series of data sets. In tropical regions, long-term studies are rare, but could exemplify the particularities of eutrophication speed under conditions of higher temperatures. The purpose of this work was to analyze the evolution of the eutrophication process in an urban tropical reservoir, using a 15-year time series (with occasional interruptions. The dataset comprised monthly sampling of several environmental variables and the phytoplankton community. We found a continuous process of water quality deterioration, mainly related to increasing levels of nutrient and phytoplankton biomass, as well as decreasing water transparency, even after the installation of a municipal wastewater treatment plant. The ongoing eutrophication resulted in a steep trend of increasing cyanobacteria biomass that turned from a seasonal appearance into more persistent blooms in the most recent decades, while the relative contribution of other algal phyla to total phytoplankton biomass declined, which resulted in a loss of phytoplankton diversity. Phosphorus was the major determinant of the persistent blooms. Even though nitrogen concentrations were very high in this system, they were not significantly correlated with phytoplankton or cyanobacteria biomass. Total-P concentrations increased about three times during the study period, indicating that the reservoir did not respond to recent restoration efforts. The average water temperature, always sufficiently high to allow phytoplankton growth all year round, is an additional factor that makes

  16. Millennial-scale climate variability during the Last Glacial period in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Seltzer, G. O.; Stevens, L. R.

    2010-04-01

    Millennial-scale climate variation during the Last Glacial period is evident in many locations worldwide, but it is unclear if such variation occurred in the interior of tropical South America, and, if so, how the low-latitude variation was related to its high-latitude counterpart. A high-resolution record, derived from the deep drilling of sediments on the floor of Lake Titicaca in the southern tropical Andes, is presented that shows clear evidence of millennial-scale climate variation between ˜60 and 20 ka BP. This variation is manifested by alternations of two interbedded sedimentary units. The two units have distinctive sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiotic properties that are controlled by the relative abundance of terrigenous or nearshore components versus pelagic components. The sediments of more terrigenous or nearshore nature likely were deposited during regionally wetter climates when river transport of water and sediment was higher, whereas the sediments of more pelagic character were deposited during somewhat drier climates regionally. The majority of the wet periods inferred from the Lake Titicaca sediment record are correlated with the cold events in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, indicating that increased intensity of the South American summer monsoon was part of near-global scale climate excursions.

  17. Is the distribution of Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus ecotypes in the Mediterranean Sea affected by global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mella-Flores, D.; Mazard, S.; Humily, F.; Partensky, F.; Mahé, F.; Bariat, L.; Courties, C.; Marie, D.; Ras, J.; Mauriac, R.; Jeanthon, C.; Bendif, E. M.; Ostrowski, M.; Scanlan, D. J.; Garczarek, L.

    2011-05-01

    Biological communities populating the Mediterranean Sea, which is situated at the northern boundary of the subtropics, are often claimed to be particularly affected by global warming. This is indicated, for instance, by the introduction of (sub)tropical species of fish or invertebrates that can displace local species. This raises the question of whether microbial communities are similarly affected, especially in the Levantine basin where sea surface temperatures have risen in recent years. In this paper, the genetic diversity of the two most abundant members of the phytoplankton community, the picocyanobacteria Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus, was examined on a transect from the South coast of France to Cyprus in the summer of 2008 (BOUM cruise). Diversity was studied using dot blot hybridization with clade-specific 16S rRNA oligonucleotide probes and clone libraries of the 16S-23S ribosomal DNA Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region. Data were compared with those obtained during the PROSOPE cruise held almost a decade earlier, with a focus on the abundance of clades that may constitute bioindicators of warm waters. During both cruises, the dominant Prochlorococcus clade in the upper mixed layer at all stations was HLI, a clade typical of temperate waters, whereas the HLII clade, the dominant group in (sub)tropical waters, was only present at very low concentrations. The Synechococcus community was dominated by clades I, III and IV in the northwestern waters of the Gulf of Lions and by clade III and groups genetically related to clades WPC1 and VI in the rest of the Mediterranean Sea. In contrast, only a few sequences of clade II, a group typical of warm waters, were observed. These data indicate that local cyanobacterial populations have not yet been displaced by their (sub)tropical counterparts. This is discussed in the context of the low phosphorus concentrations found in surface waters in the eastern Mediterranean basin, as this may constitute a barrier to

  18. Microscopic examination of skin in native and nonnative fish from Lake Tahoe exposed to ultraviolet radiation and fluoranthene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gevertz, Amanda K., E-mail: agevertz@geiconsultants.com [Miami University, Department of Zoology, 212 Pearson Hall, Oxford 45056, Ohio (United States); GEI Consultants, Inc. , 4601 DTC Blvd, Suite 900, Denver 80237, Colorado (United States); Oris, James T., E-mail: orisjt@miamioh.edu [Miami University, Department of Zoology, 212 Pearson Hall, Oxford 45056, Ohio (United States)

    2014-02-15

    Highlights: •PAH cause photo-induced toxicity in aquatic organisms in the natural environment. •Montane lakes like Lake Tahoe receive PAH exposure from recreational watercraft. •These lakes are susceptible to invasion and establishment of non-native species. •Non-natives were less tolerant to photo-toxicity compared to native species. •Sensitivity differences were related to levels of oxidative damage in epidermis. -- Abstract: The presence of nonnative species in Lake Tahoe (CA/NV), USA has been an ongoing concern for many decades, and the management of these species calls for an understanding of their ability to cope with the Lake's stressors and for an understanding of their potential to out-compete and reduce the populations of native species. Decreasing levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) due to eutrophication and increasing levels of phototoxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) due to recreational activities may combine to affect the relative ability of native versus nonnative fish species to survive in the lake. Following a series of toxicity tests which exposed larvae of the native Lahontan redside minnow (Richardsonius egregius) and the nonnative warm-water bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to UVR and FLU, the occurrence of skin damage and/or physiologic defense mechanisms were studied using multiple microscopic techniques. The native minnow appeared to exhibit fewer instances of skin damage and increased instances of cellular coping mechanisms. This study supports the results of previous work conducted by the authors, who determined that the native redside minnow is the more tolerant of the two species, and that setting and adhering to a water quality standard for UVR transparency may aid in preventing the spread of the less tolerant nonnative bluegill and similar warm-water species.

  19. Diatom-Based Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of Lake Telmen for the Last 6230 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.Soninkhishig

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The preserved diatom flora in a 14C dated (0-6230 yBP, 343 cm long core sequence from Lake Telmen, Mongolia, was investigated to determine the nature of the lake-ecosystem and watershed response to Late Holocene climate change. Modern Lake Telmen is a slightly saline (presently 4 g L-1 closed- basin lake located along a N-S and E-W aridity ecotone in north-central Mongolia, making it sensitive to climate-driven changes in effective moisture balance. Diatoms were not preserved regularly in two areas of the Lake Telmen sediment record (5380-41 50 yBP and 1050-425 yBP possibly due to high carbonate preservation; however, diatom preservation between these areas was good to excellent. Diatom-based paleosalinity reconstruction using species-specific salinity optima from the Northern Great Plains of North America and community analysis suggests the following climate-lake response model during the Late Holocene. From 6230 to 5520 radiocarbon years ago, warm-dry climate resulted in a small salty (20 g L-1 lake in the Telmen basin that was dominated by high salinity indicator species (e.g. Cyclotella caspia, Navicellapusilla, Brachysira aponina. From 3 860 to 1200 radiocarbon yBP, Lake Telmen recorded a period of a modulating climate that resulted in regular fluctuations in paleosalinity from 2 to 4 g L-1 in conjunction with lake level changes. Dominance in the diatom flora fluctuated between the freshwater planktonic form Cyclotella bodanica var. affinis and the salinity-tolerant benthic taxon Anomoeoneis sphaerophora f. costata during this period characterized by generally more humid climatic periods interspersed with dry-as-present conditions. The most modern samples (0-250 yBP preserve floristic assemblages similar to those found between 3860 to 1200 radiocarbon yBP and indicate that as recently as 250 years ago Lake Telmen had lower salinity values than modern day.

  20. Molecular records of climate variability and vegetation response since the Late Pleistocene in the Lake Victoria basin, East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berke, M.A.; Johnson, T.C.; Werne, J.P.; Grice, K.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.

    2012-01-01

    New molecular proxies of temperature and hydrology are helping to constrain tropical climate change and elucidate possible forcing mechanisms during the Holocene. Here, we examine a similar to 14,000 year record of climate variability from Lake Victoria, East Africa, the world's second largest