WorldWideScience

Sample records for warm summer temperatures

  1. Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

  2. Lack of cool, not warm, extremes distinguishes late 20th Century climate in 979-year Tasmanian summer temperature reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Evans, R.; Francey, R.; Buckley, B. M.; Palmer, J. G.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

    2018-03-01

    Very few annually resolved millennial-length temperature reconstructions exist for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present four 979-year reconstructions for southeastern Australia for the austral summer months of December-February. Two of the reconstructions are based on the Australian Water Availability Project dataset and two on the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset. For each climate data set, one reconstruction is based solely on Lagarostrobos franklinii (restricted reconstructions) while the other is based on multiple Tasmanian conifer species (unrestricted reconstructions). Each reconstruction calibrates ~50-60% of the variance in the temperature datasets depending on the number of tree-ring records available for the reconstruction. We found little difference in the temporal variability of the reconstructions, although extremes are amplified in the restricted reconstructions relative to the unrestricted reconstructions. The reconstructions highlight the occurrence of numerous individual years, especially in the 15th-17th Centuries, for which temperatures were comparable with those of the late 20th Century. The 1950-1999 period, however, stands out as the warmest 50-year period on average for the past 979 years, with a sustained shift away from relatively low mean temperatures, the length of which is unique in the 979-year record. The reconstructions are strongly and positively related to temperatures across the southeast of the Australian continent, negatively related to temperatures in the north and northeast of the continent, and uncorrelated with temperatures in the west. The lack of a strong relationship with temperatures across the continent highlights the necessity of a sub-regional focus for Australasian temperature reconstructions.

  3. Joint influence of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and Northern Arabian Sea Temperatures on the Indian Summer Monsoon in a Global Climate Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    Proxy-based studies confirmed that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) shows large variations during the Holocene. These changes might be explained by changes in orbital conditions and solar insolation but are also thought to be associated to changes in oceanic conditions, e.g. over the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool region. However, due to the nature of these (proxy-based) analyses no conclusion about atmospheric circulation changes during dry and wet epochs are possible. Here, a fully-coupled global climate simulation (AOGCM) covering the past 6000 years is analysed regarding ISM variability. Several dry and wet epochs are found, the most striking around 2ka BP (dry) and 1.7ka BP (wet). As only orbital parameters change during integration, we expect these "shorter-term" changes to be associated with changes in oceanic conditions. During 1.7ka BP the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the Northern Arabian Sea (NARAB) are significantly warmer compared to 2ka BP, whereas cooler conditions are found over the western Pacific Ocean. Additionally, significant differences are found over large parts of the North Atlantic. To explain in how far these different ocean basins are responsible for anomalous conditions during 1.7ka BP, several sensitivity experiments with changed SST/SIC conditions are carried out. It is found that neither the SST's in the Pacific nor in the Indian Ocean are able to reproduce the anomalous rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns during 1.7ka on its own. Instead, anomalous dry conditions during 2ka BP and wet conditions during 1.7ka BP are associated with a shift of the Indo-Pacific-Warm-Pool (IPWP) and simultaneous anomalous sea-surface temperatures over the NARAB region. Eventually, it is tested in how far this hypothesis holds true for other dry and wet events in the AOGCM data during the whole 6000 years. In general, a shift of the IPWP without anomalous SST conditions over the NARAB region (and vice versa) is not sufficient to cause long

  4. A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Safeeq; G.E. Grant; S.L. Lewis; M.G. Kramer; B. Staab

    2014-01-01

    Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation...

  5. Synergy of a warm spring and dry summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; David. Schimel

    2016-01-01

    An analysis suggests that high carbon uptake by US land ecosystems during the warm spring of 2012 offset the carbon loss that resulted from severe drought over the summer — and hints that the warm spring could have worsened the drought.

  6. Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaoqiong; Ting, Mingfang

    2017-10-01

    Future hydroclimate projections from state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainty and model spread, particularly in the tropics and over the monsoon regions. The precipitation and circulation responses to rising greenhouse gases involve a fast component associated with direct radiative forcing and a slow component associated with sea surface temperature (SST) warming; the relative importance of the two may contribute to model discrepancies. In this study, regional hydroclimate responses to greenhouse warming are assessed using output from coupled general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) and idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments from the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project. The thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms causing the rainfall changes are examined using moisture budget analysis. Results show that direct radiative forcing and SST change exert significantly different responses both over land and ocean. For most part of the Asian monsoon region, the summertime rainfall changes are dominated by the direct CO2 radiative effect through enhanced monsoon circulation. The response to SST warming shows a larger model spread compared to direct radiative forcing, possibly due to the cancellation between the thermodynamical and dynamical components. While the thermodynamical response of the Asian monsoon is robust across the models, there is a lack of consensus for the dynamical response among the models and weak multi-model mean responses in the CMIP5 ensemble, which may be related to the multiple physical processes evolving on different time scales.

  7. European summer temperatures since Roman times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luterbacher, J; Werner, J P; Smerdon, J E; Fernández-Donado, L; González-Rouco, F J; Barriopedro, D; Ljungqvist, F C; Büntgen, U; Frank, D; Zorita, E; Wagner, S; Esper, J; McCarroll, D; Toreti, A; Jungclaus, J H; Bothe, O; Barriendos, M; Bertolin, C; Camuffo, D; Brázdil, R

    2016-01-01

    The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time

  8. Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

    2015-01-01

    Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

  9. Dendroclimatic transfer functions revisited: Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period summer temperatures reconstructed using artificial neural networks and linear algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helama, S.; Holopainen, J.; Eronen, M. [Department of Geology, University of Helsinki, (Finland); Makarenko, N.G. [Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation). Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory; Karimova, L.M.; Kruglun, O.A. [Institute of Mathematics, Almaty (Kazakhstan); Timonen, M. [Finnish Forest Research Institute, Rovaniemi Research Unit (Finland); Merilaeinen, J. [SAIMA Unit of the Savonlinna Department of Teacher Education, University of Joensuu (Finland)

    2009-07-01

    Tree-rings tell of past climates. To do so, tree-ring chronologies comprising numerous climate-sensitive living-tree and subfossil time-series need to be 'transferred' into palaeoclimate estimates using transfer functions. The purpose of this study is to compare different types of transfer functions, especially linear and nonlinear algorithms. Accordingly, multiple linear regression (MLR), linear scaling (LSC) and artificial neural networks (ANN, nonlinear algorithm) were compared. Transfer functions were built using a regional tree-ring chronology and instrumental temperature observations from Lapland (northern Finland and Sweden). In addition, conventional MLR was compared with a hybrid model whereby climate was reconstructed separately for short- and long-period timescales prior to combining the bands of timescales into a single hybrid model. The fidelity of the different reconstructions was validated against instrumental climate data. The reconstructions by MLR and ANN showed reliable reconstruction capabilities over the instrumental period (AD 1802-1998). LCS failed to reach reasonable verification statistics and did not qualify as a reliable reconstruction: this was due mainly to exaggeration of the low-frequency climatic variance. Over this instrumental period, the reconstructed low-frequency amplitudes of climate variability were rather similar by MLR and ANN. Notably greater differences between the models were found over the actual reconstruction period (AD 802-1801). A marked temperature decline, as reconstructed by MLR, from the Medieval Warm Period (AD 931-1180) to the Little Ice Age (AD 1601-1850), was evident in all the models. This decline was approx. 0.5 C as reconstructed by MLR. Different ANN based palaeotemperatures showed simultaneous cooling of 0.2 to 0.5 C, depending on algorithm. The hybrid MLR did not seem to provide further benefit above conventional MLR in our sample. The robustness of the conventional MLR over the calibration

  10. Damped summer warming accompanied with cloud cover increase over Eurasia from 1982 to 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang Qiuhong; Leng Guoyong

    2012-01-01

    The relationship between summer temperature, total cloud cover and precipitation over Eurasia was investigated using observation-based products of temperature and precipitation, and satellite-derived cloud cover and radiation products. We used a partial least squares regression approach to separate the local influences of cloud cover and precipitation on temperature variations. Our results suggest that the variance of summer temperature is partly explained by changes in summer cloudiness. The summer temperature dependence on cloud cover is strong at the high latitudes and in the middle latitude semi-humid area, while the dependence on precipitation is strong in the Central Asia arid area and the southern Asia humid area. During the period 1982–2009, the damped warming in extended West Siberia was accompanied with increases in cloud cover, and the pronounced warming in Europe and Mongolia was associated with a decrease in cloud cover and precipitation. Our results suggest that cloud cover may be the important local factor influencing the summer temperature variation in Eurasia while precipitation plays an important role at the middle latitudes. (letter)

  11. High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

    2017-11-01

    Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to

  12. Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

    2017-10-01

    Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

  13. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  14. Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

  15. Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

    2016-01-01

    In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

  16. On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

  17. Long-term changes of South China Sea surface temperatures in winter and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Gyu; Choi, Ara

    2017-07-01

    Utilizing available atmospheric and oceanographic reanalysis data sets, the long-term trend in South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 and the governing processes are investigated. Both winter and summer SST increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes were different. Strong warming in winter occurred in a deep central area, and during summer in the southern region. In winter the net heat flux into the sea increased, contributing to the warming. The spatial pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. Heat flux increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased over the deeper area where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened lowering the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre which transports cold northern water to the south weakened, thereby warming the ocean. The effect was manifested more strongly along the southward western boundary current inducing warming in the deep central part. In summer however, the net surface heat flux decreased and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the SCS, the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is parallel to the mean SST gradient. Southeastward cold advection due to Ekman transport was reduced, thereby warming the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. Upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened, raising the SST east of Vietnam contributing to the southern summer warming secondarily. The weakening of the winds in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different in winter and summer.

  18. Differential impacts of ocean acidification and warming on winter and summer progeny of a coastal squid (Loligo vulgaris).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Rui; Trübenbach, Katja; Pimentel, Marta S; Boavida-Portugal, Joana; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Dionísio, Gisela; Calado, Ricardo; Pörtner, Hans O; Repolho, Tiago

    2014-02-15

    Little is known about the capacity of early life stages to undergo hypercapnic and thermal acclimation under the future scenarios of ocean acidification and warming. Here, we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses to these climate change-related variables (2°C above winter and summer average spawning temperatures and ΔpH=0.5 units) during the early ontogeny of the squid Loligo vulgaris. Embryo survival rates ranged from 92% to 96% under present-day temperature (13-17°C) and pH (8.0) scenarios. Yet, ocean acidification (pH 7.5) and summer warming (19°C) led to a significant drop in the survival rates of summer embryos (47%, Pocean acidification and summer warming scenarios. The occurrence of prolonged embryogenesis along with lowered thermal tolerance limits under such conditions is expected to negatively affect the survival success of squid early life stages during the summer spawning period, but not winter spawning.

  19. Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Gordon

    2009-04-01

    Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

  20. Late summer temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring density for Sygera Mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingyong; Duan, Jianping; Wang, Lily; Zhu, Haifeng

    2018-04-01

    Although several tree-ring density-based summer/late summer temperature reconstructions have been developed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the understanding of the local/regional characteristics of summer temperature fluctuations on a long-term scale in some regions is still limited. To improve our understanding in these aspects, more local or regional summer temperature reconstructions extending back over several centuries are required. In this study, a new mean latewood density (LWD) chronology from Abies georgei var. smithii from the upper tree line of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP was developed to reconstruct the late summer temperature variability since 1820 CE. The bootstrapped correlation analysis showed that the LWD chronology index was significantly and positively correlated with the late summer (August-September) mean temperatures (r1950-2008 = 0.63, p < 0.001) recorded at the nearest meteorological station and that this reconstruction has considerable potential to represent the late summer temperature variability at the regional scale. Our late summer temperature reconstruction revealed three obvious cold periods (i.e., 1872-1908, 1913-1937 and 1941-1966) and two relatively warm phases (i.e., 1821-1871 and 1970-2008) over the past two centuries. Comparisons of our reconstruction with other independent tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions, glacier fluctuations and historical documental records from neighboring regions showed good agreement in these relatively cold and warm intervals. Our reconstruction exhibits an overall increasing temperature trend since the 1960s, providing new evidence supporting the recent warming of the TP. Moreover, our results also indicate that the late summer temperature variability of Sygera Mountain on the southeastern TP has potential links with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

  1. LHC Report: Summer temperatures in the LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    Jan Uythoven for the LHC Team

    2012-01-01

    The LHC experiments have finished their data-taking period before the summer conferences. The machine has already delivered substantially more collisions to the experiments this year than in the whole of 2011. The LHC has now started a six-day Machine Development period, which will be followed by the second Technical Stop of the year.   The number of collisions delivered to the experiments is expressed in integrated luminosity. In 2011, the integrated luminosity delivered to both ATLAS and CMS was around 5.6 fb-1. On Monday 18 June, experiments finished taking data before the summer conferences and the integrated luminosity for 2012 so far is about 6.6 fb-1, well above the unofficial target of 5 fb-1. The LHC’s performance over the last week of running was so efficient that the injection kicker magnets – which heat up due to the circulating beam – did not have time to cool down between the subsequent fills. As the time constants for warming up and cooli...

  2. European summer temperatures since Roman times

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Luterbacher, J.; Werner, J. P.; Smerdon, J. E.; Fernandez-Donado, L.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Barriopedro, D.; Ljungqvist, F. C.; Büntgen, Ulf; Zorita, E.; Wagner, S.; Esper, J.; McCarroll, D.; Toreti, A.; Frank, D.; Jungclaus, J.; Barriendos, M.; Bertolin, C.; Bothe, O.; Brázdil, Rudolf; Camuffo, D.; Dobrovolný, Petr; Gagen, M.; Garica-Bustamante, E.; Ge, Q.; Gomez-Navarro, J. J.; Guiot, J.; Hao, Z.; Hegerl, G.; Holmgren, K.; Klimenko, V. V.; Martin-Chivelet, J.; Pfister, C.; Roberts, N.; Schindler, A.; Schurer, A.; Solomina, O.; von Gunten, L.; Wahl, E.; Wanner, H.; Wetter, O.; Xoplaki, E.; Yuan, N.; Zanchettin, D.; Zhang, H.; Zerefos, C.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 11, č. 2 (2016), č. článku 024001. ISSN 1748-9326 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-04291S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : reconstructing climate anomalies * high-resolution paleoclimatology * northern-hemisphere temperature * tree-ring chronologies * last 1000 years * volcanic - eruptions * forcing reconstructions * bayesian algorithm * pmip simulations * past millennium * Common Era * heat waves * paleoclimatology * Bayesian hierarchical modelling * European summer temperature reconstruction * ensemble of climate model simulations * Medieval Climate Anomaly Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 4.404, year: 2016

  3. Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Antonsson

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

  4. The role of summer precipitation and summer temperature in establishment and growth of dwarf shrub Betula nana in northeast Siberian tundra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Bingxi; Heijmans, Monique M P D; Berendse, Frank

    2016-01-01

    It is widely believed that deciduous tundra-shrub dominance is increasing in the pan-Arctic region, mainly due to rising temperature. We sampled dwarf birch (Betula nana L.) at a northeastern Siberian tundra site and used dendrochronological methods to explore the relationship between climatic...... variables and local shrub dominance. We found that establishment of shrub ramets was positively related to summer precipitation, which implies that the current high dominance of B. nana at our study site could be related to high summer precipitation in the period from 1960 to 1990. The results confirmed...... that early summer temperature is most influential to annual growth rates of B. nana. In addition, summer precipitation stimulated shrub growth in years with warm summers, suggesting that B. nana growth may be co-limited by summer moisture supply. The dual controlling role of temperature and summer...

  5. Dendroclimatic Reconstruction of Summer Temperatures in Irik Valley, Mount Elbrus (Greater Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iulian Horia HOLOBÂCĂ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests an acceleration of glacier retreat in Greater Caucasus after 1980. For the same period a significant summer temperature warming trend and little or no change in precipitation variation have been observed. In this paper we seek to find similar past climatic conditions using a dendroclimatic reconstruction of summer temperatures from upper treeline sites after the Little Ice Age (LIA. Dendroclimatological sampling of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris has been made in Irik Valley, near Elbrus glacier, and a tree-ring width (TRW chronology has been used to reconstruct May – August (MJJA temperatures back to 1830. Three warm periods were identified in the MJJA temperatures reconstructed data (1830 - 1900, but we cannot appreciate if they had the same intensity as the recent warm period

  6. The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

    2018-01-18

    Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C

  7. A Centennial Episode of Weak East Asian Summer Monsoon in the Midst of the Medieval Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, C.; Liu, J.; Wang, B.; Wang, Z.; Yan, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recent paleo-proxy evidences suggested that the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was generally strong (i.e., northern China wet and southern China dry) during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 9th to the mid-13th century), however, there was a centennial period (around 11th century) during which the EASM was weak. This study aims to explore the causes of this centennial weak EASM episode and in general, what controls the centennial variability of the EASM in the pre-industrial period of AD 501-1850. With the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a suit of control and forced experiments were conducted for the past 2000 years. The model run with all external forcings simulates a warm period of EA from AD 801-1250 with a generally increased summer mean precipitation over the northern EA; however, during the 11th century (roughly from AD 980 to AD 1100), the EASM is significantly weaker than the other periods during the MWP. We find that on the multi-decadal to centennial time scale, a strong EASM is associated with a La Nina-like Indo-Pacific warming and the opposite is also true. This sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern represents the leading EOF mode of centennial SST variations, and it is primarily forced by the solar radiation and volcanic activity, whereas the land use/land cover and greenhouse gases as well as internal dynamics play a negligible role. During the MWP, the solar forcing plays a dominate role in supporting the SST variation as the volcanic activity is weak. The weakening of the EASM during the AD 980-1100 is attributed to the relatively low solar radiation, which leads to a prevailing El Nino-like Indo-Pacific cooling with strongest cooling occurring in the equatorial western Pacific. The suppressed convection over the equatorial western Pacific directly induces a Philippine Sea anticyclone anomaly, which increases southern China precipitation, meanwhile suppresses Philippine Sea precipitation, exciting a meridional teleconnection that

  8. Parasitic copepod (Lernaea cyprinacea) outbreaks in foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) linked to unusually warm summers in northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah J. Kupferberg; Alessandro Catenazzi; Kevin Lunde; Amy J. Lind; Wendy J. Palen

    2009-01-01

    How climate change may affect parasite–host assemblages and emerging infectious diseases is an important question in amphibian decline research. We present data supporting a link between periods of unusually warm summer water temperatures during 2006 and 2008 in a northern California river, outbreaks of the parasitic copepod Lernaea cyprinacea, and...

  9. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  10. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

  11. Historical ablation rates on south-east Greenland glaciers measured in the 1933 warm summer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bent Hasholt

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Ice ablation rates measured on four glaciers in south-east Greenland in summer 1933 are recovered from an old field book of geologist K. Milthers. These unpublished ablation data are among the first measured in Greenland and were obtained during a warm period comparable to that of recent years. Ablation rates of up to 45 mm ice eq. d−1 were observed. Using the Tasiilaq meteorological record, we calculate degree-day factors of ca. 3–5 mm ice eq. d−1°C−1. Comparing these results with 1996–2012 observations at one of Milthers’ glaciers (Mittivakkat, we find that ablation rates and degree-day factors are significantly higher (61±50% in recent years. We speculate this to be due to a reduction in surface albedo, and perhaps the retreat of the glaciers out of the cold maritime inversion layer. Our findings suggest that using a temperature-index method that assumes constant degree-day factors may produce inaccurate long-term ablation estimates for south-east Greenland glaciers, further emphasizing the value of the rare 1933 measurements for validation of ablation models.

  12. The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon to a Global Warming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, C.; Jin, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The response of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to the abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is investigated using the Super-Parameterized Community Climate Model, version 4 (SP-CCSM4). The EASM precipitation and circulation intensify in response to global warming and these changes are related to the westward extension of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH). The displacement of WNPSH is caused by two mechanisms: i) the increase of sea surface temperature and ii) the reduction of latent heat flux over the South China Sea and adjacent western Pacific Ocean. The changes in the surface fluxes over the tropics induce a Gill-type anti-cyclonic circulation to the north of the heating anomaly and a Rossy wave train from the tropics into the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. The westerly anomalies on the northern side of the anticyclone strengthen the southwesterly flow on the western edge of WNPSH. This flow further affects the wind anomalies and moisture transport over East Asia.

  13. Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Emily Pickering; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders

    2017-08-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes. Few studies have investigated CH4 fluxes in subarctic heath ecosystems, and climate change-induced shifts in CH4 flux and the overall carbon budget are therefore largely unknown. Hence, there is an urgent need for long-term in situ experiments allowing for the study of ecosystem processes over time scales relevant to environmental change. Here we present in situ CH4 and CO2 flux measurements from a wet heath ecosystem in northern Sweden subjected to 16 years of manipulations, including summer warming with open-top chambers, birch leaf litter addition, and the combination thereof. Throughout the snow-free season, the ecosystem was a net sink of CH4 and CO2 (CH4 -0.27 mg C m-2 d-1; net ecosystem exchange -1827 mg C m-2 d-1), with highest CH4 uptake rates (-0.70 mg C m-2 d-1) during fall. Warming enhanced net CO2 flux, while net CH4 flux was governed by soil moisture. Litter addition and the combination with warming significantly increased CH4 uptake rates, explained by a pronounced soil drying effect of up to 32% relative to ambient conditions. Both warming and litter addition also increased the seasonal average concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the soil. The site was a carbon sink with a net uptake of 60 g C m-2 over the snow-free season. However, warming reduced net carbon uptake by 77%, suggesting that this ecosystem type might shift from snow-free season sink to source with increasing summer temperatures.

  14. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich; Shiogama, Hideo; Bethke, Ingo; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Scinocca, John F.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

  15. Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Patrick F.; Mulvey, Robin L.; Brownlee, Annalis H.; Barrett, Tara M.; Pattison, Robert R.

    2015-12-01

    Shore pine, which is a subspecies of lodgepole pine, was a widespread and dominant tree species in Southeast Alaska during the early Holocene. At present, the distribution of shore pine in Alaska is restricted to coastal bogs and fens, likely by competition with Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. Monitoring of permanent plots as part of the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program identified a recent loss of shore pine biomass in Southeast Alaska. The apparent loss of shore pine is concerning, because its presence adds a vertical dimension to coastal wetlands, which are the richest plant communities of the coastal temperate rainforest in Alaska. In this study, we examined the shore pine tree-ring record from a newly established plot network throughout Southeast Alaska and explored climate-growth relationships. We found a steep decline in shore pine growth from the early 1960s to the present. Random Forest regression revealed a strong correlation between the decline in shore pine growth and the rise in growing season diurnal minimum air temperature. Warm summer nights, cool daytime temperatures and a reduced diurnal temperature range are associated with greater cloud cover in Southeast Alaska. This suite of conditions could lead to unfavorable tree carbon budgets (reduced daytime photosynthesis and greater nighttime respiration) and/or favor infection by foliar pathogens, such as Dothistroma needle blight, which has recently caused widespread tree mortality on lodgepole pine plantations in British Columbia. Further field study that includes experimental manipulation (e.g., fungicide application) will be necessary to identify the proximal cause(s) of the growth decline. In the meantime, we anticipate continuation of the shore pine growth decline in Southeast Alaska.

  16. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  17. Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Wilson, R.; Anchukaitis, K.; Briffa, K. R.; Büntgen, Ulf; Cook, E.; D'Arrigo, R.; Davi, N.; Esper, J.; Frank, D.; Gunnarson, B.; Hegerl, G.; Helama, S.; Klesse, S.; Krusic, P. J.; Linderholm, H. W.; Myglan, V. S.; Osborn, T. J.; Rydval, M.; Schneider, L.; Schurer, A.; Wiles, G.; Zhang, P.; Zorita, E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 134, FEB (2016), s. 1-18 ISSN 0277-3791 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : high-resolution paleoclimatology * stable carbon isotopes * medieval warm period * past 600 years * blue intensity * volcanic-eruptions * density data * ice-age * dendroclimatic reconstruction * cambium phenology * Tree-rings * Northern hemisphere * Last millennium * Summer temperatures * Reconstruction * CMIP5 models Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.797, year: 2016

  18. Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

    2017-12-01

    One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

  19. Native temperature regime influences soil response to simulated warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy G. Whitby; Michael D. Madritch

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase global temperatures and potentially increase soil carbon (C) mineralization, which could lead to a positive feedback between global warming and soil respiration. However the magnitude and spatial variability of belowground responses to warming are not yet fully understood. Some of the variability may depend...

  20. Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn, Alexandra

    2018-05-01

    Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly with increasing global temperatures. However, it is largely unknown how Arctic summer sea-ice impacts would vary under the 1.5 °C Paris target compared to scenarios with greater warming. Using the Community Earth System Model, I show that constraining warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C reduces the probability of any summer ice-free conditions by 2100 from 100% to 30%. It also reduces the late-century probability of an ice cover below the 2012 record minimum from 98% to 55%. For warming above 2 °C, frequent ice-free conditions can be expected, potentially for several months per year. Although sea-ice loss is generally reversible for decreasing temperatures, sea ice will only recover to current conditions if atmospheric CO2 is reduced below present-day concentrations. Due to model biases, these results provide a lower bound on summer sea-ice impacts, but clearly demonstrate the benefits of constraining warming to 1.5 °C.

  1. Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H

    2016-01-01

    The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific...... attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies......, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation...

  2. Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

    2016-01-01

    The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

  3. Plot-scale evidence of tundra vegetation change and links to recent summer warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Bjork; Noemie Boulanger-Lapointe; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Johannes H.C. Cornelissen; Thomas A. Day; Ellen Dorrepaal; Tatiana G. Elumeeva; Mike Gill; William A. Gould; John Harte; David S. Hik; Annika Hofgaard; David R. Johnson; Jill F. Johnstone; Ingijorg Svala Jonsdottir; Janet C. Jorgenson; Kari Klanderud; Julia A. Klein; Saewan Koh; Gaku Kudo; Mark Lara; Esther Levesque; Borgthor Magnusson; Jeremy L. May; Joel A. Mercado; Anders Michelsen; Ulf Molau; Isla H. Myers-Smith; Steven F. Oberbauer; Vladimir G. Onipchenko; Christian Rixen; Niels Martin Schmidt; Gaius R. Shaver; Marko J. Spasojevic; Pora Ellen Porhallsdottir; Anne Tolvanen; Tiffany Troxler; Craig E. Tweedie; Sandra Villareal; Carl-Henrik Wahren; Xanthe Walker; Patrick J. Webber; Jeffrey M. Welker; Sonja Wipf

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is increasing at unprecedented rates across most of the tundra biome1. Remote-sensing data indicate that contemporary climate warming has already resulted in increased productivity over much of the Arctic2,3, but plot-based evidence for vegetation transformation is not widespread. We analysed change in tundra vegetation surveyed between 1980 and 2010 in 158...

  4. The impact of future summer temperature on public health in Barcelona and Catalonia, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostro, Bart; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Ballester, Joan; Basagaña, Xavier; Sunyer, Jordi

    2012-11-01

    Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure-response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, "business-as-usual" scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI 340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960-1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.

  5. Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Zhao, Sen; Mao, Jiangyu; Dong, Di; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2018-04-01

    Austral summer (December-February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs through the eastward propagating South Atlantic-Australia (SAA) wave train triggered by SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic. The excitation of the SAA wave train is verified by forcing experiments based on both linear barotropic and baroclinic models, propagation pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce low-level warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

  6. Temperature adaptation of bacterial communities in experimentally warmed forest soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousk, Johannes; Frey, Serita D; Bååth, Erland

    2012-10-01

    A detailed understanding of the influence of temperature on soil microbial activity is critical to predict future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and feedbacks to anthropogenic warming. We investigated soils exposed to 3-4 years of continuous 5 °C-warming in a field experiment in a temperate forest. We found that an index for the temperature adaptation of the microbial community, T min for bacterial growth, increased by 0.19 °C per 1 °C rise in temperature, showing a community shift towards one adapted to higher temperature with a higher temperature sensitivity (Q 10(5-15 °C) increased by 0.08 units per 1 °C). Using continuously measured temperature data from the field experiment we modelled in situ bacterial growth. Assuming that warming did not affect resource availability, bacterial growth was modelled to become 60% higher in warmed compared to the control plots, with the effect of temperature adaptation of the community only having a small effect on overall bacterial growth (bacterial growth, most likely due to substrate depletion because of the initially higher growth in warmed plots. When this was factored in, the result was similar rates of modelled in situ bacterial growth in warmed and control plots after 3 years, despite the temperature difference. We conclude that although temperature adaptation for bacterial growth to higher temperatures was detectable, its influence on annual bacterial growth was minor, and overshadowed by the direct temperature effect on growth rates. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. An observational study on the temperature rising effects in water warming canal and water warming pond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, J. B.; Hong, S. B. [Rural Development Cooperation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1990-09-15

    The power water flowed out from the multipurpose darn influences the ecosystem approximately because of the low water temperature. An appropriate counter measure to the rising water temperature is needed for growing crops especially when the temperature is below 18°C in the source of the irrigation water This observational study is practiced in Yong-Doo water warming canal and pond in the down stream of Choong-Ju multipurpose dam and is practiced for analyse and compare the rising effects in actural water temperature by actual measurement with the rising effects of planned water temperatuer by the basic theoritical method and for the help to present the direction in plan establishment through investigate the results afterwards. The results are as follows. 1. The degree of the rise of the water temperature can be decided by θ{sub x} = θ{sub 0} + K (L/(v * h)) * (T - θ{sub 0}) Then, K values of a factor representing the characteristics of the water warming canal were 0.00002043 for the type I. and 0.0000173 for the type II. respectively. 2. A variation of water temperature which produced by the difference effective temperature and water temperature in the water warming canal was θ{sub x1} = 16.5 + 15.9 (1-e{sup -0.00018x}), θ{sub x2} = 18.8 + 8.4(1-e{sup -0.000298x}) for the type I. and θ{sub x} = 19.6 + 12.8 (1-e{sup -0.00041x}) for the type II. 3. It was shown that the effects of the rise of water temperature for the type I. water warming canal were greater than that of type II. as a resultes of broadening the surface of the canal compared with the depth of water, coloring the surface of water canal and installing the resistance block. 4. In case of the type I. water warming canal, the equation between the air temperature and the degree of the rise of water temprature could be made; Y = 0.4134X + 7.728 In addition, in case of the type II. water warming canal, the correlation was very low. 5. A monthly variation of the water temperature in the water warming

  8. Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2017-07-01

    Although many studies have documented the effects of global warming on invasive plants, little is known about whether the effects of warming on plant invasion differ depending on the imposed change in different diurnal temperature ranges (DTR). We tested the impact of warming with DTR change on seed germination and seedling growth of eight species in the family Asteraceae. Four of these are invasive ( Eupatorium catarium , Mikania micrantha , Biodens pilosa var. radiate , Ageratum conyzoides ) in China, and four are native ( Sonchus arvensis , Senecios candens , Pterocypsela indica , Eupatorium fortunei ). Four temperature treatments were set in growth chambers (three warming by 3 °C with different DTRs and control), and experiments were run to mimic wintertime and summertime conditions. The control treatment ( T c ) was set to the mean temperature for the corresponding time of year, and the three warming treatments were symmetric (i.e. equal night-and-day) (DTR sym ), asymmetric warming with increased (DTR inc ) and decreased (DTR dec ) DTR. The warming treatments did not affect seed germination of invasive species under any of the conditions, but DTR sym and DTR inc increased seed germination of natives relative to the control, suggesting that warming may not increase success of these invasive plant species via effects on seed germination of invasive plants relative to native plants. The invasive plants had higher biomass and greater stem allocation than the native ones under all of the warming treatments. Wintertime warming increased the biomass of the invasive and wintertime DTR sym and DTR inc increased that of the native plants, whereas summertime asymmetric warming decreased the biomass of the invasives but not the natives. Therefore, warming may not facilitate invasion of these invasive species due to the suppressive effects of summertime warming (particularly the asymmetric warming) on growth. Compared with DTR sym , DTR dec decreased the biomass of

  9. Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

  10. Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

    2012-04-01

    We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

  11. Warm winds from the Pacific caused extensive Arctic sea-ice melt in summer 2007

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graversen, Rune G.; Drijfhout, Sybren [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Mauritsen, Thorsten [Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Tjernstroem, Michael; Maartensson, Sebastian [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2011-06-15

    During summer 2007 the Arctic sea-ice shrank to the lowest extent ever observed. The role of the atmospheric energy transport in this extreme melt event is explored using the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We find that in summer 2007 there was an anomalous atmospheric flow of warm and humid air into the region that suffered severe melt. This anomaly was larger than during any other year in the data (1989-2008). Convergence of the atmospheric energy transport over this area led to positive anomalies of the downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes. In the region that experienced unusual ice melt, the net anomaly of the surface fluxes provided enough extra energy to melt roughly one meter of ice during the melting season. When the ocean successively became ice-free, the surface-albedo decreased causing additional absorption of shortwave radiation, despite the fact that the downwelling solar radiation was smaller than average. We argue that the positive anomalies of net downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes played a key role in initiating the 2007 extreme ice melt, whereas the shortwave-radiation changes acted as an amplifying feedback mechanism in response to the melt. (orig.)

  12. Summer warming and changes in snow depth is reflected in the growth rings of Alaskan tundra shrubs (Toolik Lake)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchwal, A.; Welker, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic change is being manifested by shifts in the vegetation composition and abundance throughout many regions of the Arctic. These changes are primarily reflected by increases in shrub growth and density, but the extent to which shrub growth is expressed in greater shrub ring width and the degree to which natural and experimental warming correspond and or whether the secondary effect of deeper snow in winter acts to alter shrub ring growh and or shrub biomass is yet to be determined for Arctic Alaska. In order to explore growth response of arctic shrubs to on-going and predicted temperature and snow depth increase we investigated shrubs' annual growth rings using dendrochronological methods applied to plants growing under control and experimental treatments in Toolik Lake, Northern Alaska. Specifically we evaluated the effects of a 20-year experimental warming (due to open top chambers, OTC's) and snow depth increases on the growth rings pattern of two common shrub species of Northern Alaska, i.e. Betula nana and Salix pulchra. By applying a serial sectioning method patterns of annual growth were investigated across the entire plant including below-ground parts. Moreover this procedure allowed for a complete cross-dating and a detection of irregular radial growth, including common missing and partially missing rings. We found that the natural warming in Alaska occurring over the past 20 years is stimulating shrub ring growth, more so for Betula than for Salix. Experimental warming (simulating conditions in approximately 2030) stimulated the secondary growth ratio; however the allocation pattern between below-ground and above-ground is quite variable between individual shrubs. In addition, annual growth rings analyses were supplemented by quantitative wood anatomy properties, such as vessel size and density. Our findings indicate that there can be differential growth ring responses of deciduous shrubs to natural climate warming, that growth ring increases reflect

  13. Global warming: Temperature estimation in annealers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jack Raymond

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Sampling from a Boltzmann distribution is NP-hard and so requires heuristic approaches. Quantum annealing is one promising candidate. The failure of annealing dynamics to equilibrate on practical time scales is a well understood limitation, but does not always prevent a heuristically useful distribution from being generated. In this paper we evaluate several methods for determining a useful operational temperature range for annealers. We show that, even where distributions deviate from the Boltzmann distribution due to ergodicity breaking, these estimates can be useful. We introduce the concepts of local and global temperatures that are captured by different estimation methods. We argue that for practical application it often makes sense to analyze annealers that are subject to post-processing in order to isolate the macroscopic distribution deviations that are a practical barrier to their application.

  14. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  15. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  16. Rising Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Amplify Extreme Summer Precipitation in Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volosciuk, Claudia; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Tilinina, Natalia; Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib

    2016-08-01

    The beginning of the 21st century was marked by a number of severe summer floods in Central Europe associated with extreme precipitation (e.g., Elbe 2002, Oder 2010 and Danube 2013). Extratropical storms, known as Vb-cyclones, cause summer extreme precipitation events over Central Europe and can thus lead to such floodings. Vb-cyclones develop over the Mediterranean Sea, which itself strongly warmed during recent decades. Here we investigate the influence of increased Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (SST) on extreme precipitation events in Central Europe. To this end, we carry out atmosphere model simulations forced by average Mediterranean SSTs during 1970-1999 and 2000-2012. Extreme precipitation events occurring on average every 20 summers in the warmer-SST-simulation (2000-2012) amplify along the Vb-cyclone track compared to those in the colder-SST-simulation (1970-1999), on average by 17% in Central Europe. The largest increase is located southeast of maximum precipitation for both simulated heavy events and historical Vb-events. The responsible physical mechanism is increased evaporation from and enhanced atmospheric moisture content over the Mediterranean Sea. The excess in precipitable water is transported from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Europe causing stronger precipitation extremes over that region. Our findings suggest that Mediterranean Sea surface warming amplifies Central European precipitation extremes.

  17. Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carey, J.C.; Tang, J.; Templer, P.H.; Kroeger, K.D.; Crowther, T.W.; Burton, A.J.; Dukes, J.S.; Emmett, B.; Frey, S.D.; Heskel, M.A.; Jiang, L.; Machmuller, M.B.; Mohan, J.; Panetta, A.M.; Reich, P.B.; Reinsch, S.; Wang, X.; Allison, S.D.; Bamminger, C.; Bridgham, S.; Collins, S.L.; de Dato, G.; Eddy, W.C.; Enquist, B.J.; Estiarte, M.; Harte, J.; Henderson, A.; Johnson, B.R.; Larsen, K.S.; Luo, Y.; Marhan, S.; Melillo, J.M.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Rastetter, E.; Reinmann, A.B.; Reynolds, L.L.; Schmidt, I.K.; Shaver, G.R.; Strong, A.L.; Suseela, V.; Tietema, A.

    2016-01-01

    The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific

  18. Common Warm Dust Temperatures Around Main Sequence Stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Farisa; Rieke, George; Werner, Michael; Stapelfeldt, Karl; Bryden, Geoffrey; Su, Kate

    2011-01-01

    We compare the properties of warm dust emission from a sample of main-sequence A-type stars (B8-A7) to those of dust around solar-type stars (F5-KO) with similar Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Spectrograph/MIPS data and similar ages. Both samples include stars with sources with infrared spectral energy distributions that show evidence of multiple components. Over the range of stellar types considered, we obtain nearly the same characteristic dust temperatures (∼ 190 K and ∼60 K for the inner and outer dust components, respectively)-slightly above the ice evaporation temperature for the inner belts. The warm inner dust temperature is readily explained if populations of small grains are being released by sublimation of ice from icy planetesimals. Evaporation of low-eccentricity icy bodies at ∼ 150 K can deposit particles into an inner/warm belt, where the small grains are heated to dust Temperatures of -190 K. Alternatively, enhanced collisional processing of an asteroid belt-like system of parent planetesimals just interior to the snow line may account for the observed uniformity in dust temperature. The similarity in temperature of the warmer dust across our B8-KO stellar sample strongly suggests that dust-producing planetesimals are not found at similar radial locations around all stars, but that dust production is favored at a characteristic temperature horizon.

  19. Observed and simulated temperature extremes during the recent warming hiatus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sillmann, Jana; Donat, Markus G; Fyfe, John C; Zwiers, Francis W

    2014-01-01

    The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections. However, little has been said in this discussion about observed and simulated trends in global temperature extremes. Here we assess trend patterns in temperature extremes and evaluate the consistency between observed and simulated temperature extremes over the past four decades (1971–2010) in comparison to the recent 15 years (1996–2010). We consider the coldest night and warmest day in a year in the observational dataset HadEX2 and in the current generation of global climate models (CMIP5). In general, the observed trends fall within the simulated range of trends, with better consistency for the longer period. Spatial trend patterns differ for the warm and cold extremes, with the warm extremes showing continuous positive trends across the globe and the cold extremes exhibiting a coherent cooling pattern across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes that has emerged in the recent 15 years and is not reproduced by the models. This regional inconsistency between models and observations might be a key to understanding the recent hiatus in global mean temperature warming. (letters)

  20. Importance of Drinking Water Temperature for Heat Stressed Pregnant Ossimi Ewes During Summer of Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habeeb, A.A.M.; EL-Tarabany, A.A.; Gad, A.E.

    2012-01-01

    The number of 45 pregnant does with the same age and average live body weight were used in the present study. The does reared under summer hot conditions where the averages of ambient temperature and relative humidity values were 35.0 degree C and 62.5% respectively during June, July and August, 2009. Pregnant does were divided randomly into three equal groups. The 1st group drinking tap water from the source of water in the farm (30±2 degree C) and served as control. The animals in the 2nd and 3rd groups drinking cool water (20±2 degree C) and cooled water (10±2 degree C), respectively, along the experimental period which started 12 weeks before expected parturition (8 hrs daily) from 10.00 to 18.00 hrs. The results showed that drinking cool water or cold water decreased the heat load of summer season on pregnant Ossimi ewes. The respiration rate and temperatures of rectal, skin and ear values decreased significantly while daily feed intake, dry matter intake and water intake values increased significantly due to treatments when compared to those drank warm water. Blood components concentrations and estradiol, progesterone and parathormone levels in ewes drank cool or cold water were significantly higher than its levels in ewes drank warm water. The opposite was found in cortisol levels

  1. The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, B.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

  2. A pollen-based reconstruction of summer temperature in central North America and implications for circulation patterns during medieval times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Eugene R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Ohlwein, Christian

    2012-03-01

    We present a reconstruction of mean summer temperature for the northern Midwest of the USA based on lacustrine pollen records from three different lakes in Wisconsin. The results suggest a relatively warm period during the earlier part of the record (~ 1200-1500 CE) followed by a cooler Little Ice Age (~ 1500-1900) and a subsequent warming to modern conditions. The reconstructed modern summer mean temperature is in good agreement with observations, and the decades of the 1930s to 1950s appear to be the warmest such period in the proxy record (through 1974). Analyses of circulation features associated with the warmest summers in the recent climate record suggest a prevalence of continental ridging accompanied by generally dry conditions during these warm summers in the Midwest. Drought reconstruction using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and tree-ring records as predictors also yield relatively dry conditions in medieval times for the central US. As reported in a number of recent studies, possible forcing mechanisms include La Niña-like conditions in the equatorial Pacific and warmer than average waters in the tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean possibly coupled to a positive mode of the AMO/NAO North Atlantic circulation pattern.

  3. Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khanh Dung T Nguyen

    Full Text Available Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1, the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

  4. Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Büntgen

    Full Text Available Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483-2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June-August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existing Scandinavian tree-ring proxies. Climate model simulations reveal similar amounts of mid to low frequency variability, suggesting that internal ocean-atmosphere feedbacks likely influenced Scandinavian temperatures more than external forcing. Projected 21st century warming under the SRES A2 scenario would, however, exceed the reconstructed temperature envelope of the past 1,500 years.

  5. Contrasting shrub species respond to early summer temperatures leading to correspondence of shrub growth patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijers, Stef; Pape, Roland; Löffler, Jörg; Myers-Smith, Isla H.

    2018-03-01

    The Arctic-alpine biome is warming rapidly, resulting in a gradual replacement of low statured species by taller woody species in many tundra ecosystems. In northwest North America, the remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggests an increase in productivity of the Arctic and alpine tundra and a decrease in productivity of boreal forests. However, the responses of contrasting shrub species growing at the same sites to climate drivers remain largely unexplored. Here, we test growth, climate, and NDVI relationships of two contrasting species: the expanding tall deciduous shrub Salix pulchra and the circumarctic evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona from an alpine tundra site in the Pika valley in the Kluane Region, southwest Yukon Territories, Canada. We found that annual growth variability of both species at this site is strongly driven by early summer temperatures, despite their contrasting traits and habitats. Shrub growth chronologies for both species were correlated with the regional climate signal and showed spatial correspondence with interannual variation in NDVI in surrounding alpine and Arctic regions. Our results suggest that early summer warming represents a common driver of vegetation change for contrasting shrub species growing in different habitats in the same alpine environments.

  6. Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neukom, R.; Grosjean, M.; Wanner, H. [University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, Bern (Switzerland); Luterbacher, J. [Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Giessen (Germany); Villalba, R.; Morales, M.; Srur, A. [CONICET, Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), Mendoza (Argentina); Kuettel, M. [University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Climatology and Meteorology, Bern (Switzerland); University of Washington, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle (United States); Frank, D. [Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf (Switzerland); Jones, P.D. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Aravena, J.-C. [Centro de Estudios Cuaternarios de Fuego Patagonia y Antartica (CEQUA), Punta Arenas (Chile); Black, D.E. [Stony Brook University, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook (United States); Christie, D.A.; Urrutia, R. [Universidad Austral de Chile Valdivia, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Valdivia (Chile); D' Arrigo, R. [Earth Institute at Columbia University, Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY (United States); Lara, A. [Universidad Austral de Chile Valdivia, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Recursos Naturales, Valdivia (Chile); Nucleo Cientifico Milenio FORECOS, Fundacion FORECOS, Valdivia (Chile); Soliz-Gamboa, C. [Utrecht Univ., Inst. of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Gunten, L. von [Univ. of Bern (Switzerland); Univ. of Massachusetts, Climate System Research Center, Amherst (United States)

    2011-07-15

    We statistically reconstruct austral summer (winter) surface air temperature fields back to ad 900 (1706) using 22 (20) annually resolved predictors from natural and human archives from southern South America (SSA). This represents the first regional-scale climate field reconstruction for parts of the Southern Hemisphere at this high temporal resolution. We apply three different reconstruction techniques: multivariate principal component regression, composite plus scaling, and regularized expectation maximization. There is generally good agreement between the results of the three methods on interannual and decadal timescales. The field reconstructions allow us to describe differences and similarities in the temperature evolution of different sub-regions of SSA. The reconstructed SSA mean summer temperatures between 900 and 1350 are mostly above the 1901-1995 climatology. After 1350, we reconstruct a sharp transition to colder conditions, which last until approximately 1700. The summers in the eighteenth century are relatively warm with a subsequent cold relapse peaking around 1850. In the twentieth century, summer temperatures reach conditions similar to earlier warm periods. The winter temperatures in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries were mostly below the twentieth century average. The uncertainties of our reconstructions are generally largest in the eastern lowlands of SSA, where the coverage with proxy data is poorest. Verifications with independent summer temperature proxies and instrumental measurements suggest that the interannual and multi-decadal variations of SSA temperatures are well captured by our reconstructions. This new dataset can be used for data/model comparison and data assimilation as well as for detection and attribution studies at sub-continental scales. (orig.)

  7. Decreasing Asian summer monsoon intensity after 1860 AD in the global warming epoch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Hai [Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Xi' an, Shaanxi Province (China); Hong, Yetang; Hong, Bin [Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Guiyang (China)

    2012-10-15

    The trend of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity and its nature during the past 100 and 200 years still remain unclear. In this study we reconstructed the ISM intensity during the past 270 years from tree ring {delta}{sup 18}O at Hongyuan, eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The monsoon failures inferred from {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} correlate well with those recorded in ice cores, speleothem, and historical literature sources. 22.6, 59.0, and 110.9-years frequency components in the Hongyuan {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} series, which may be the responses to solar activities, synchronize well with those recorded in other ISM indices. A notable feature of the reconstructed ISM intensity is the gradually decreasing trend from about 1860 to the present, which is inversely related to the increasing temperature trend contemporaneously. Such ''decreasing ISM intensity-increasing temperature'' tendency can also be supported by ice core records and meteorological records over a wide geographic extension. The decrease in sea surface temperature gradient between tropical and north Indian Ocean, and the decrease in land-sea thermal contrast between tropical Indian Ocean and ''Indian sub-continent-western Himalaya'' are possibly responsible for the observed decreasing ISM trend. (orig.)

  8. Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Johannes P.; Divine, Dmitry V.; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik; Nilsen, Tine; Francus, Pierre

    2018-04-01

    In this article, the first spatially resolved and millennium-length summer (June-August) temperature reconstruction over the Arctic and sub-Arctic domain (north of 60° N) is presented. It is based on a set of 44 annually dated temperature-sensitive proxy archives of various types from the revised PAGES2k database supplemented with six new recently updated proxy records. As a major advance, an extension of the Bayesian BARCAST climate field (CF) reconstruction technique provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties. This results not only in a more precise reconstruction but additionally enables joint probabilistic constraints to be imposed on the chronologies of the used archives. The new seasonal CF reconstruction for the Arctic region can be shown to be skilful for the majority of the terrestrial nodes. The decrease in the proxy data density back in time, however, limits the analyses in the spatial domain to the period after 750 CE, while the spatially averaged reconstruction covers the entire time interval of 1-2002 CE.The centennial to millennial evolution of the reconstructed temperature is in good agreement with a general pattern that was inferred in recent studies for the Arctic and its subregions. In particular, the reconstruction shows a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; here ca. 920-1060 CE), which was characterised by a sequence of extremely warm decades over the whole domain. The medieval warming was followed by a gradual cooling into the Little Ice Age (LIA), with 1766-1865 CE as the longest centennial-scale cold period, culminating around 1811-1820 CE for most of the target region.In total over 600 independent realisations of the temperature CF were generated. As showcased for local and regional trends and temperature anomalies, operating in a probabilistic framework directly results in comprehensive uncertainty estimates, even for complex analyses. For the presented multi-scale trend analysis, for example, the spread in

  9. Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Werner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the first spatially resolved and millennium-length summer (June–August temperature reconstruction over the Arctic and sub-Arctic domain (north of 60° N is presented. It is based on a set of 44 annually dated temperature-sensitive proxy archives of various types from the revised PAGES2k database supplemented with six new recently updated proxy records. As a major advance, an extension of the Bayesian BARCAST climate field (CF reconstruction technique provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties. This results not only in a more precise reconstruction but additionally enables joint probabilistic constraints to be imposed on the chronologies of the used archives. The new seasonal CF reconstruction for the Arctic region can be shown to be skilful for the majority of the terrestrial nodes. The decrease in the proxy data density back in time, however, limits the analyses in the spatial domain to the period after 750 CE, while the spatially averaged reconstruction covers the entire time interval of 1–2002 CE.The centennial to millennial evolution of the reconstructed temperature is in good agreement with a general pattern that was inferred in recent studies for the Arctic and its subregions. In particular, the reconstruction shows a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; here ca. 920–1060 CE, which was characterised by a sequence of extremely warm decades over the whole domain. The medieval warming was followed by a gradual cooling into the Little Ice Age (LIA, with 1766–1865 CE as the longest centennial-scale cold period, culminating around 1811–1820 CE for most of the target region.In total over 600 independent realisations of the temperature CF were generated. As showcased for local and regional trends and temperature anomalies, operating in a probabilistic framework directly results in comprehensive uncertainty estimates, even for complex analyses. For the presented multi

  10. The Impact of “Unseasonably” Warm Spring Temperatures on Acute Myocardial Infarction Hospital Admissions in Melbourne, Australia: A City with a Temperate Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Loughnan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of extreme temperatures on human health have been well described. However, the adverse health effects of warm weather that occurs outside the summer period have had little attention. We used daily anomalous AMI morbidity and daily anomalous temperature to determine the impact of “unseasonable” temperature on human health. The “unseasonably” warm weather was attributed to a slow moving high pressure system to the east of Melbourne. No morbidity displacement was noted during either of these periods suggesting that morbidity due to “unseasonable” temperatures is avoidable. An increase in warmer weather during the cooler months of spring may result in increased morbidity, and an alert system based on summer thresholds may not be appropriate for early season heat health warnings. A straightforward alert system based on calculating anomalous temperature from daily weather forecasts may reduce the public health impact of “unseasonably” warm weather.

  11. The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Tsanis, Ioannis K

    2016-08-01

    Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the

  12. Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Hendricks, Nathan

    2017-11-01

    Temperature increases due to climate change are expected to cause substantial reductions in global wheat yields. However, uncertainty remains regarding the potential role for irrigation as an adaptation strategy to offset heat impacts. Here we utilize over 7000 observations spanning eleven Kansas field-trial locations, 180 varieties, and 29 years to show that irrigation significantly reduces the negative impact of warming temperatures on winter wheat yields. Dryland wheat yields are estimated to decrease about eight percent for every one-degree Celsius increase in temperature, yet irrigation completely offsets this negative impact in our sample. As in previous studies, we find that important interactions exist between heat stress and precipitation for dryland production. Here, uniquely, we observe both dryland and irrigated trials side-by-side at the same locations and find that precipitation does not provide the same reduction in heat stress as irrigation. This is likely to be because the timing, intensity, and volume of water applications influence wheat yields, so the ability to irrigate—rather than relying on rainfall alone—has a stronger influence on heat stress. We find evidence of extensive differences of water-deficit stress impacts across varieties. This provides some evidence of the potential for adapting to hotter and drier climate conditions using optimal variety selection. Overall, our results highlight the critical role of water management for future global food security. Water scarcity not only reduces crop yields through water-deficit stress, but also amplifies the negative effects of warming temperatures.

  13. Atmospheric Dynamics Leading to West European Summer Hot Temperatures Since 1851

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Summer hot temperatures have many impacts on health, economy (agriculture, energy, and transports, and ecosystems. In Western Europe, the recent summers of 2003 and 2015 were exceptionally warm. Many studies have shown that the genesis of the major heat events of the last decades was linked to anticyclonic atmospheric circulation and to spring precipitation deficit in Southern Europe. Such results were obtained for the second part of the 20th century and projections into the 21st century. In this paper, we challenge this vision by investigating the earlier part of the 20th century from an ensemble of 20CR reanalyses. We propose an innovative description of Western-European heat events applying the dynamical system theory. We argue that the atmospheric circulation patterns leading to the most intense heat events have changed during the last century. We also show that the increasing temperature trend during major heatwaves is encountered during episodes of Scandinavian Blocking, while other circulation patterns do not yield temperature trends during extremes.

  14. Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

    2017-04-01

    The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a

  15. Strong impacts of daily minimum temperature on the green-up date and summer greenness of the Tibetan Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Miaogen; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Xiaoqiu; An, Shuai; Fu, Yongshuo H; Wang, Shiping; Cong, Nan; Janssens, Ivan A

    2016-09-01

    Understanding vegetation responses to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) helps in elucidating the land-atmosphere energy exchange, which affects air mass movement over and around the TP. Although the TP is one of the world's most sensitive regions in terms of climatic warming, little is known about how the vegetation responds. Here, we focus on how spring phenology and summertime greenness respond to the asymmetric warming, that is, stronger warming during nighttime than during daytime. Using both in situ and satellite observations, we found that vegetation green-up date showed a stronger negative partial correlation with daily minimum temperature (Tmin ) than with maximum temperature (Tmax ) before the growing season ('preseason' henceforth). Summer vegetation greenness was strongly positively correlated with summer Tmin , but negatively with Tmax . A 1-K increase in preseason Tmin advanced green-up date by 4 days (P greenness by 3.6% relative to the mean greenness during 2000-2004 (P green-up date (P > 0.10) and higher summer Tmax even reduced greenness by 2.6% K(-1) (P greenness were probably due to the accompanying decline in water availability. The dominant enhancing effect of nighttime warming indicates that climatic warming will probably have stronger impact on TP ecosystems than on apparently similar Arctic ecosystems where vegetation is controlled mainly by Tmax . Our results are crucial for future improvements of dynamic vegetation models embedded in the Earth System Models which are being used to describe the behavior of the Asian monsoon. The results are significant because the state of the vegetation on the TP plays an important role in steering the monsoon. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  17. The response of Arctic vegetation to the summer climate: relation between shrub cover, NDVI, surface albedo and temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blok, Daan; Heijmans, Monique M P D; Berendse, Frank [Nature Conservation and Plant Ecology Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen (Netherlands); Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela [Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zuerich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zuerich (Switzerland); Bartholomeus, Harm [Centre for Geo-Information, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen (Netherlands); Maximov, Trofim C, E-mail: daan.blok@wur.nl [Biological Problems of the Cryolithozone, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Division, 41, Lenin Prospekt, Yakutsk, The Republic of Sakha, Yakutia 677980 (Russian Federation)

    2011-07-15

    Recently observed Arctic greening trends from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data suggest that shrub growth is increasing in response to increasing summer temperature. An increase in shrub cover is expected to decrease summer albedo and thus positively feed back to climate warming. However, it is unknown how albedo and NDVI are affected by shrub cover and inter-annual variations in the summer climate. Here, we examine the relationship between deciduous shrub fractional cover, NDVI and albedo using field data collected at a tundra site in NE Siberia. Field data showed that NDVI increased and albedo decreased with increasing deciduous shrub cover. We then selected four Arctic tundra study areas and compiled annual growing season maximum NDVI and minimum albedo maps from MODIS satellite data (2000-10) and related these satellite products to tundra vegetation types (shrub, graminoid, barren and wetland tundra) and regional summer temperature. We observed that maximum NDVI was greatest in shrub tundra and that inter-annual variation was negatively related to summer minimum albedo but showed no consistent relationship with summer temperature. Shrub tundra showed higher albedo than wetland and barren tundra in all four study areas. These results suggest that a northwards shift of shrub tundra might not lead to a decrease in summer minimum albedo during the snow-free season when replacing wetland tundra. A fully integrative study is however needed to link results from satellite data with in situ observations across the Arctic to test the effect of increasing shrub cover on summer albedo in different tundra vegetation types.

  18. The response of Arctic vegetation to the summer climate: relation between shrub cover, NDVI, surface albedo and temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blok, Daan; Heijmans, Monique M P D; Berendse, Frank; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Bartholomeus, Harm; Maximov, Trofim C

    2011-01-01

    Recently observed Arctic greening trends from normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data suggest that shrub growth is increasing in response to increasing summer temperature. An increase in shrub cover is expected to decrease summer albedo and thus positively feed back to climate warming. However, it is unknown how albedo and NDVI are affected by shrub cover and inter-annual variations in the summer climate. Here, we examine the relationship between deciduous shrub fractional cover, NDVI and albedo using field data collected at a tundra site in NE Siberia. Field data showed that NDVI increased and albedo decreased with increasing deciduous shrub cover. We then selected four Arctic tundra study areas and compiled annual growing season maximum NDVI and minimum albedo maps from MODIS satellite data (2000-10) and related these satellite products to tundra vegetation types (shrub, graminoid, barren and wetland tundra) and regional summer temperature. We observed that maximum NDVI was greatest in shrub tundra and that inter-annual variation was negatively related to summer minimum albedo but showed no consistent relationship with summer temperature. Shrub tundra showed higher albedo than wetland and barren tundra in all four study areas. These results suggest that a northwards shift of shrub tundra might not lead to a decrease in summer minimum albedo during the snow-free season when replacing wetland tundra. A fully integrative study is however needed to link results from satellite data with in situ observations across the Arctic to test the effect of increasing shrub cover on summer albedo in different tundra vegetation types.

  19. Influence of Flow Regulation on Summer Water Temperature: Sauce Grande River, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casado, A.; Hannah, D. M.; Peiry, J.; Campo, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    This study quantifies the effects of the Paso de las Piedras Dam on the thermal behaviour of the Sauce Grande River, Argentina, during a summer season. A 30-day data set of continuous hourly data was assembled for eight stream temperature gauging sites deployed above and below the impoundment. Time series span the hottest period recorded during summer 2009 to evaluate variations in river water temperature under strong meteorological influence. The methods include: (i) analysis of the time series by inspecting the absolute differences in daily data (magnitude, timing, frequency, duration and rate of change), (ii) classification of diurnal regimes by using a novel regime 'shape' and 'magnitude' classifying method (RSMC), and (ii) quantification of the sensitivity of water temperature regimes to air temperature by computation of a novel sensitivity index (SI). Results showed that fluctuations in daily water temperatures were linked to meteorological drivers; however, spatial variability in the shape and the magnitude of the thermographs revealed the effects of the impoundment in regulating the thermal behaviour of the river downstream. An immediate cooling effect below the dam was evident. Mean daily temperatures were reduced in up to 4 °C, and described a warming trend in the downstream direction over a distance of at least 15 km (up to +2.3 °C). Diurnal cycles were reduced in amplitude and delayed in timing, and revealed a dominance of regime magnitude stability and regime shape climatic insensitivity over a distance of 8 km downstream. These findings provide new information about the water quality of the Sauce Grande River and inform management of flows to maintain the ecological integrity of the river system. Also, they motivate further analysis of potential correlates under varying hydrological and meteorological conditions. The methods presented herein have wider applicability for quantifying river thermal regimes and their sensitivity to climate and other

  20. Summer temperatures in the Canadian Rockies during the last millennium: a revised record

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luckman, B.H. [University of Western Ontario, Department of Geography, London, Ontario (Canada); Wilson, R.J.S. [Edinburgh University, School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2005-02-01

    We present a significant update to a millennial summer temperature reconstruction (1073-1983) that was originally published in 1997. Utilising new tree-ring data (predominantly Picea engelmannii), the reconstruction is not only better replicated, but has been extended (950-1994) and is now more regionally representative. Calibration and verification statistics were improved, with the new model explaining 53% of May-August maximum temperature variation compared to the original (39% of April-August mean temperatures). The maximum latewood density data, which are weighted more strongly in the regression model than ringwidth, were processed using regional curve standardisation to capture potential centennial to millennial scale variability. The reconstruction shows warm intervals, comparable to twentieth century values, for the first half of the eleventh century, the late 1300s and early 1400s. The bulk of the record, however, is below the 1901-1980 normals, with prolonged cool periods from 1200 to 1350 and from 1450 to the late 19th century. The most extreme cool period is observed to be in the 1690s. These reconstructed cool periods compare well with known regional records of glacier advances between 1150 and the 1300s, possibly in the early 1500s, early 1700s and 1800s. Evidence is also presented of the influence of solar activity and volcanic events on summer temperature in the Canadian Rockies over the last 1,000 years. Although this reconstruction is regional in scope, it compares well at multi-decadal to centennial scales with Northern Hemisphere temperature proxies and at millennial scales with reconstructions that were also processed to capture longer timescale variability. This coherence suggests that this series is globally important for the assessment of natural temperature variability over the last 1,000 years. (orig.)

  1. Effects of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Identified in Midlatitude Mesospheric Rayleigh-Scatter Lidar Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sox, L.; Wickwar, V. B.; Fish, C. S.; Herron, J. P.

    2014-12-01

    Mesospheric temperature anomalies associated with Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) have been observed extensively in the polar regions. However, observations of these anomalies at midlatitudes are sparse. The very dense 11-year data set, collected between 1993-2004, with the Rayleigh-scatter lidar at the Atmospheric Lidar Observatory (ALO; 41.7°N, 111.8°W) at the Center for Atmospheric and Space Sciences (CASS) on the campus of Utah State University (USU), has been carefully examined for such anomalies. The temperatures derived from these data extend over the mesosphere, from 45 to 90 km. During this period extensive data were acquired during seven major SSW events. In this work we aim to determine the characteristics of the midlatitude mesospheric temperatures during these seven major SSWs. To do this, comparisons were made between the temperature profiles on individual nights before, during, and after the SSW events and the corresponding derived climatological temperature profiles (31-day by 11-year average) for those nights. A consistent disturbance pattern was observed in the mesospheric temperatures during these SSWs. A distinct shift from the nominal winter temperature pattern to a pattern more characteristic of summer temperatures was seen in the midlatitude mesosphere close to when the zonal winds in the polar stratosphere (at 10 hPa, 60° N) reversed from eastward to westward. This shift lasted for several days. This change in pattern included coolings in the upper mesosphere, comparable to those seen in the polar regions, and warmings in the lower mesosphere.

  2. Observed 1970-2005 cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.; Fabris, D.; Maurer, E.; Miller, N.; Milesi, C.; Bornstein, R.

    2009-05-15

    The study evaluated 1948-2004 summer (JJA) mean monthly air temperatures for two California air basins: SoCAB and SFBA. The study focuses on the more rapid post-1970 warming period, and its daily T{sub min} and T{sub max} values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of trends for each air basins. Additional analyses included T{sub D} values at two NWS sites, SSTs, NCEP reanalysis sea-level pressures, and GCM T{sub ave}-values. Results for all California COOP sites together showed increased JJA T{sub ave}-values; asymmetric warming, as T{sub min}-values increase faster than T{sub max}-values; and thus decreased DTR values. The spatial distribution of observed SoCAB and SFBA T{sub max} values exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling in low-elevation coastal-areas open to marine air penetration and warming at inland areas. Results also showed that decreased DTR values in the valleys arose from small increases at 'inland' sites combined with large decreases at 'coastal' sites. Previous studies suggest that cooling JJA T{sub max}-values in coastal California were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover, while the current hypothesis is that they arises from GHG-induced global-warming of 'inland' areas, which results in increased sea breeze flow activity. Sea level pressure trends showed increases in the oceanic Pacific High and decreases in the central-California Thermal Low. The corresponding gradient thus showed a trend of 0.02 hPa 100-km{sup -1} decade{sup -1}, supportive of the hypothesis of increased sea breeze activity. Trends in T{sub D} values showed a larger value at coastal SFO than at inland SEC, which indicative of increased sea breeze activity; calculated SST trends (0.15 C decade{sup -1}) could also have increase T{sub D}-values. GCM model Tave-values showed warming that decreases from 0.13 C decade{sup -1} at inland California to 0.08 C decade{sup -1} at coastal areas

  3. The sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon to a global warming of 2 C with respect to pre-industrial times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, Wilhelm [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2011-11-15

    lower (upper) level in the Indian region. The comparison with the changes in the Indian summer monsoon associated with a global warming of 4.5 C reveals that both the intensification of the monsoon precipitation and the weakening of the large-scale monsoon circulation (particularly in the lower troposphere) are relatively strong (with respect to the magnitude of the projected global warming by the end of the twentieth century for the two scenarios) in the scenario with a global warming of 2 C. The relatively strong intensification of the monsoon rainfall is related to rather strong increases in evaporation over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, while a rather weak amplification of the meridional temperature gradient between the Indian Ocean and the land areas to the north contributes to the relatively strong reduction of the large-scale monsoon flow. (orig.)

  4. Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J; Bergman, Harold L; Cherrington, Brian D

    2018-02-01

    We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows (Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters (Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

  5. Warmed Winter Water Temperatures Alter Reproduction in Two Fish Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firkus, Tyler; Rahel, Frank J.; Bergman, Harold L.; Cherrington, Brian D.

    2018-02-01

    We examined the spawning success of Fathead Minnows ( Pimephales promelas) and Johnny Darters ( Etheostoma nigrum) exposed to elevated winter water temperatures typical of streams characterized by anthropogenic thermal inputs. When Fathead Minnows were exposed to temperature treatments of 12, 16, or 20 °C during the winter, spawning occurred at 16 and 20 °C but not 12 °C. Eggs were deposited over 9 weeks before winter spawning ceased. Fathead Minnows from the three winter temperature treatments were then exposed to a simulated spring transition. Spawning occurred at all three temperature treatments during the spring, but fish from the 16° and 20 °C treatment had delayed egg production indicating a latent effect of warm winter temperatures on spring spawning. mRNA analysis of the egg yolk protein vitellogenin showed elevated expression in female Fathead Minnows at 16 and 20 °C during winter spawning that decreased after winter spawning ceased, whereas Fathead Minnows at 12 °C maintained comparatively low expression during winter. Johnny Darters were exposed to 4 °C to represent winter temperatures in the absence of thermal inputs, and 12, 16, and 20 °C to represent varying degrees of winter thermal pollution. Johnny Darters spawned during winter at 12, 16, and 20 °C but not at 4 °C. Johnny Darters at 4 °C subsequently spawned following a simulated spring period while those at 12, 16, and 20 °C did not. Our results indicate elevated winter water temperatures common in effluent-dominated streams can promote out-of-season spawning and that vitellogenin expression is a useful indicator of spawning readiness for fish exposed to elevated winter temperatures.

  6. Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jiawei; Xu, Haiming; Deng, Jiechun

    2018-04-01

    Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30-40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2 °C, but a

  7. Operational forecasting of daily temperatures in the Valencia Region. Part I: maximum temperatures in summer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, I.; Estrela, M.

    2009-09-01

    Extreme temperature events have a great impact on human society. Knowledge of summer maximum temperatures is very useful for both the general public and organisations whose workers have to operate in the open, e.g. railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Moreover, summer maximum daily temperatures are considered a parameter of interest and concern since persistent heat-waves can affect areas as diverse as public health, energy consumption, etc. Thus, an accurate forecasting of these temperatures could help to predict heat-wave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The aim of this work is to evaluate the skill of the RAMS model in determining daily maximum temperatures during summer over the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the CEAM Foundation. To carry out the model verification process, we have analysed not only the global behaviour of the model for the whole Valencia Region, but also its behaviour for the individual stations distributed within this area. The study has been performed for the summer forecast period of 1 June - 30 September, 2007. The results obtained are encouraging and indicate a good agreement between the observed and simulated maximum temperatures. Moreover, the model captures quite well the temperatures in the extreme heat episodes. Acknowledgement. This work was supported by "GRACCIE" (CSD2007-00067, Programa Consolider-Ingenio 2010), by the Spanish Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia, contract number CGL2005-03386/CLI, and by the Regional Government of Valencia Conselleria de Sanitat, contract "Simulación de las olas de calor e invasiones de frío y su regionalización en la Comunidad Valenciana" ("Heat wave and cold invasion simulation and their regionalization at Valencia Region"). The CEAM Foundation is supported by the Generalitat Valenciana and BANCAIXA (Valencia, Spain).

  8. Effects of air temperature and discharge on Upper Mississippi River summer water temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Brian R.; Robertson, Dale M.; Rogala, James T.

    2018-01-01

    Recent interest in the potential effects of climate change has prompted studies of air temperature and precipitation associations with water temperatures in rivers and streams. We examined associations between summer surface water temperatures and both air temperature and discharge for 5 reaches of the Upper Mississippi River during 1994–2011. Water–air temperature associations at a given reach approximated 1:1 when estimated under an assumption of reach independence but declined to approximately 1:2 when water temperatures were permitted to covary among reaches and were also adjusted for upstream air temperatures. Estimated water temperature–discharge associations were weak. An apparently novel feature of this study is that of addressing changes in associations between water and air temperatures when both are correlated among reaches.

  9. Leaf anatomical and photosynthetic acclimation to cool temperature and high light in two winter versus two summer annuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohu, Christopher M; Muller, Onno; Adams, William W; Demmig-Adams, Barbara

    2014-09-01

    Acclimation of foliar features to cool temperature and high light was characterized in winter (Spinacia oleracea L. cv. Giant Nobel; Arabidopsis thaliana (L.) Heynhold Col-0 and ecotypes from Sweden and Italy) versus summer (Helianthus annuus L. cv. Soraya; Cucurbita pepo L. cv. Italian Zucchini Romanesco) annuals. Significant relationships existed among leaf dry mass per area, photosynthesis, leaf thickness and palisade mesophyll thickness. While the acclimatory response of the summer annuals to cool temperature and/or high light levels was limited, the winter annuals increased the number of palisade cell layers, ranging from two layers under moderate light and warm temperature to between four and five layers under cool temperature and high light. A significant relationship was also found between palisade tissue thickness and either cross-sectional area or number of phloem cells (each normalized by vein density) in minor veins among all four species and growth regimes. The two winter annuals, but not the summer annuals, thus exhibited acclimatory adjustments of minor vein phloem to cool temperature and/or high light, with more numerous and larger phloem cells and a higher maximal photosynthesis rate. The upregulation of photosynthesis in winter annuals in response to low growth temperature may thus depend on not only (1) a greater volume of photosynthesizing palisade tissue but also (2) leaf veins containing additional phloem cells and presumably capable of exporting a greater volume of sugars from the leaves to the rest of the plant. © 2014 Scandinavian Plant Physiology Society.

  10. Measuring the temperature history of isochorically heated warm dense metals

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuffey, Chris; Kim, J.; Park, J.; Moody, J.; Emig, J.; Heeter, B.; Dozieres, M.; Beg, Fn; McLean, Hs

    2017-10-01

    A pump-probe platform has been designed for soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy near edge structure measurements in isochorically heated Al or Cu samples with temperature of 10s to 100s of eV. The method is compatible with dual picosecond-class laser systems and may be used to measure the temperature of the sample heated directly by the pump laser or by a laser-driven proton beam Knowledge of the temperature history of warm dense samples will aid equation of state measurements. First, various low- to mid-Z targets were evaluated for their suitability as continuum X-ray backlighters over the range 200-1800 eV using a 10 J picosecond-class laser with relativistic peak intensity Alloys were found to be more suitable than single-element backlighters. Second, the heated sample package was designed with consideration of target thickness and tamp layers using atomic physics codes. The results of the first demonstration attempts will be presented. This work was supported by the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-SC0014600.

  11. Surface temperature pattern of the Indian Ocean before summer monsoon

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopinathan, C.K.; Rao, D.P.

    , suggests that the position of the warmer areas in the Bay of Bengal in May is an indicator of the subsequent summer rainfall over India. The statistical method adopted for the long range forcasting of the Indian summer monsoon gives very little...

  12. Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles Luce; Brian Staab; Marc Kramer; Seth Wenger; Dan Isaak; Callie McConnell

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the thermal response of streams to a warming climate is important for prioritizing native fish conservation efforts. While there are plentiful estimates of air temperature responses to climate change, the sensitivity of streams, particularly small headwater streams, to warming temperatures is less well understood. A substantial body of literature correlates...

  13. Warming and the dependence of limber pine (Pinus flexilis) establishment on summer soil moisture within and above its current elevation range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyes, Andrew B.; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2013-01-01

    Continued changes in climate are projected to alter the geographic distributions of plant species, in part by affecting where individuals can establish from seed. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes uphill redistribution of subalpine tree populations by reducing cold limitation at high elevation and enhancing drought stress at low elevation. We seeded limber pine (Pinus flexilis) into plots with combinations of infrared heating and water addition treatments, at sites positioned in lower subalpine forest, the treeline ecotone, and alpine tundra. In 2010, first-year seedlings were assessed for physiological performance and survival over the snow-free growing season. Seedlings emerged in midsummer, about 5–8 weeks after snowmelt. Low temperature was not observed to limit seedling photosynthesis or respiration between emergence and October, and thus experimental warming did not appear to reduce cold limitation at high elevation. Instead, gas exchange and water potential from all sites indicated a prevailing effect of summer moisture stress on photosynthesis and carbon balance. Infrared heaters raised soil growing degree days (base 5 °C, p p 3 m-3 consistently corresponded with moderate and severe indications of drought stress in midday stem water potential, stomatal conductance, photosynthesis, and respiration. Seedling survival was greater in watered plots than in heated plots (p = 0.01), and negatively related to soil growing degree days and duration of exposure to θ 3 m-3 in a stepwise linear regression model (p seasonal moisture stress and high soil surface temperature imposed a strong limitation to limber pine seedling establishment across a broad elevation gradient, including at treeline, and that these limitations are likely to be enhanced by further climate warming.

  14. Influence of the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Indian Ocean in March on the summer rainfall in Xinjiang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yang; Huang, Anning; Zhao, Yong; Yang, Qing; Jiang, Jing; La, Mengke

    2015-02-01

    This study explores the relationship between the sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean (IOSST) in March and the summer rainfall in Xinjiang. In the observations, the IOSST in March significantly correlates with the summer rainfall in Xinjiang with a correlation coefficient of about 0.49 during 1961-2007. This relationship is independent from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a partial correlation coefficient of about 0.40-0.48 controlling for the ENSO indices from December to March. In addition to the observations, three sets of numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a regional climate model (RegCM4.3). The model results show that warm IOSST can excite a negative anomaly of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the Indian Ocean in March. This anomaly stays over the tropical Indian Ocean, and then propagates north to central Asia in June. Consequently, the anomalous wind associated with this geopotential height anomaly transports moisture from the Persian Gulf and the coast of Iran to Xinjiang, passing over Pakistan and the Tibetan Plateau. Therefore, the warm (cold) IOSST in March tends to cause the increase (decrease) of the summer rainfall over Xinjiang, especially in the Tian Shan and Kunlun Mountains.

  15. Regional patterns of increasing Swiss needle cast impacts on Douglas-fir growth with warming temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, E Henry; Beedlow, Peter A; Waschmann, Ronald S; Tingey, David T; Cline, Steven; Bollman, Michael; Wickham, Charlotte; Carlile, Cailie

    2017-12-01

    The fungal pathogen, Phaeocryptopus gaeumannii , causing Swiss needle cast (SNC) occurs wherever Douglas-fir is found but disease damage is believed to be limited in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) to the Coast Range of Oregon and Washington (Hansen et al., Plant Disease , 2000, 84 , 773; Rosso & Hansen, Phytopathology , 2003, 93 , 790; Shaw, et al., Journal of Forestry , 2011, 109 , 109). However, knowledge remains limited on the history and spatial distribution of SNC impacts in the PNW. We reconstructed the history of SNC impacts on mature Douglas-fir trees based on tree-ring width chronologies from western Oregon. Our findings show that SNC impacts on growth occur wherever Douglas-fir is found and is not limited to the coastal fog zone. The spatiotemporal patterns of growth impact from SNC disease were synchronous across the region, displayed periodicities of 12-40 years, and strongly correlated with winter and summer temperatures and summer precipitation. The primary climatic factor limiting pathogen dynamics varied spatially by location, topography, and elevation. SNC impacts were least severe in the first half of the 20th century when climatic conditions during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (1924-1945) were less conducive to pathogen development. At low- to mid-elevations, SNC impacts were most severe in 1984-1986 following several decades of warmer winters and cooler, wetter summers including a high summer precipitation anomaly in 1983. At high elevations on the west slope of the Cascade Range, SNC impacts peaked several years later and were the greatest in the 1990s, a period of warmer winter temperatures. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer winters and will likely continue to increase SNC severity at higher elevations, north along the coast from northern Oregon to British Columbia, and inland where low winter temperatures currently limit growth of the pathogen. Our findings indicate that SNC may become a significant

  16. Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2017-01-01

    The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

  17. Global patterns in lake ecosystem responses to warming based on the temperature dependence of metabolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraemer, Benjamin M; Chandra, Sudeep; Dell, Anthony I; Dix, Margaret; Kuusisto, Esko; Livingstone, David M; Schladow, S Geoffrey; Silow, Eugene; Sitoki, Lewis M; Tamatamah, Rashid; McIntyre, Peter B

    2017-05-01

    Climate warming is expected to have large effects on ecosystems in part due to the temperature dependence of metabolism. The responses of metabolic rates to climate warming may be greatest in the tropics and at low elevations because mean temperatures are warmer there and metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature (with exponents >1). However, if warming rates are sufficiently fast in higher latitude/elevation lakes, metabolic rate responses to warming may still be greater there even though metabolic rates respond exponentially to temperature. Thus, a wide range of global patterns in the magnitude of metabolic rate responses to warming could emerge depending on global patterns of temperature and warming rates. Here we use the Boltzmann-Arrhenius equation, published estimates of activation energy, and time series of temperature from 271 lakes to estimate long-term (1970-2010) changes in 64 metabolic processes in lakes. The estimated responses of metabolic processes to warming were usually greatest in tropical/low-elevation lakes even though surface temperatures in higher latitude/elevation lakes are warming faster. However, when the thermal sensitivity of a metabolic process is especially weak, higher latitude/elevation lakes had larger responses to warming in parallel with warming rates. Our results show that the sensitivity of a given response to temperature (as described by its activation energy) provides a simple heuristic for predicting whether tropical/low-elevation lakes will have larger or smaller metabolic responses to warming than higher latitude/elevation lakes. Overall, we conclude that the direct metabolic consequences of lake warming are likely to be felt most strongly at low latitudes and low elevations where metabolism-linked ecosystem services may be most affected. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. ENSO shifts and their link to Southern Africa surface air temperature in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manatsa, D.; Mukwada, G.; Makaba, L.

    2018-05-01

    ENSO has been known to influence the trends of summer warming over Southern Africa. In this work, we used observational and reanalysis data to analyze the relationship between ENSO and maximum surface air temperature (SATmax) trends during the three epochs created by the ENSO phase shifts around 1977 and 1997 for the period 1960 to 2014. We observed that while ENSO and cloud cover remains the dominant factor controlling SATmax variability, the first two epochs had the predominant La Niña (El Niño)-like events connected to robust positive (negative) trends in cloud fraction. However, this established relationship reversed in the post-1997 La Niña-like dominated epoch which coincided with a falling cloud cover trend. It is established that this deviation from the previously established link within the previous epochs could be due to the post-1998 era in which SATmin was suppressed while SATmax was enhanced. The resulting increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR) could have discouraged the formation of low-level clouds which have relatively more extensive areal coverage and hence allowing more solar energy to reach the surface to boost daytime SATmax. It is noted that these relationships are more pronounced from December to March.

  19. Observed Effects of Vegetation Growth on Temperature in the Early Summer over the Northeast China Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaxiang Li

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The effect of vegetation on temperature is an emerging topic in the climate science community. Existing studies have mostly examined the effects of vegetation on daytime temperature (Tmax, whereas this study investigates the effects on nighttime temperature (Tmin. Ground measurements from 53 sites across northeastern China (NEC from 1982 to 2006 show that early summer (June Tmax and Tmin increased at mean rates of approximately 0.61 °C/10 year and 0.67 °C/10 year, respectively. Over the same period, the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI decreased by approximately 0.10 (accounting for 18% of the climatological NDVI for 1982–1991. It is highlighted that a larger increase in Tmax (Tmin co-occurred spatially with a larger (smaller decrease in NDVI. Deriving from such spatial co-occurrences, we found that the spatial variability of changes in Tmax (i.e., ΔTmax is negatively correlated with the spatial variability of changes in NDVI (i.e., ΔNDVI, while the spatial variability of changes in Tmin (i.e., ΔTmin is positively correlated (r2 = 0.10; p < 0.05 with that of ΔNDVI. Similarly, we detected significant positive correlations between the spatial variability of ΔNDVI and the change in surface latent heat flux (r2 = 0.16; p < 0.01 and in surface air specific humidity (r2 = 0.28; p < 0.001. These findings on the spatial co-occurrences suggest that the vegetation growth intensifies the atmospheric water vapor through evapotranspiration, which enhances the atmospheric downward longwave radiation and strengthens the greenhouse warming effects at night. Thereby, the positive correlation between ΔNDVI and ΔTmin is better understood. These results indicate that vegetation growth may not only exert effects on daytime temperature but also exert warming effects on nighttime temperature by increasing atmospheric water vapor and thus intensifying the local greenhouse effect. This study presents new observation evidence of the

  20. Sea Surface Temperatures in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool During the Early Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekens, P. S.; Ravelo, A. C.; Griffith, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays an important role in both regional and global climate, but the response of this region to anthropogenic climate change is not well understood. While the early Pliocene is not a perfect analogue for anthropogenic climate change, it is the most recent time in Earth history when global temperatures were warmer than they are today for a sustained period of time. SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific was 2-4○C warmer in the early Pliocene compared to today. A Mg/Ca SST at ODP site 806 in the western equatorial Pacific indicates that SST were stable through the last 5Ma (Wara et al., 2005). We generated a G. sacculifer Mg/Ca record in the Indian Ocean (ODP sit 758) for the last 5 Ma, which also shows that IPWP SST has remained relatively stable through the last 5 Ma and was not warmer in the early Pliocene compared today. A recent paper suggests that the Mg/Ca of seawater may have varied through the last 5 Ma and significantly affected Mg/Ca SST estimates (Medina-Elizalde et al., 2008). However, there is considerable uncertainty in the estimates of seawater Mg/Ca variations through time. We will present a detailed examination of these uncertainties to examine the possible range of seawater Mg/Ca through the last 5 Ma. Due to the lack of culturing work of foraminifera at different Mg/Ca ratios in the growth water there is also uncertainty in how changes in seawater Mg/Ca will affect the temperatures signal in the proxy. We will explore how uncertainties in the record of seawater Mg/Ca variations through time and its effect on the Mg/Ca SST proxy potentially influence the interpretation of the Mg/Ca SST records at ODP sites 806 and 758 in the IPWP, and ODP site 847 in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We will also explore how adjustment of the Mg/Ca SST estimates (due to reconstructed Mg/Ca seawater variations) affects the δ18O of water when adjusted Mg/Ca SST estimates are paired with δ18O measurements of the same samples.

  1. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Franssen, S. U.; Bergmann, N.; Gu, J.; Coyer, J. A.; Reusch, T. B. H.; Bornberg-Bauer, E.; Olsen, J. L.

    2016-01-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina,

  2. Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Martins, Luis Filipe; Perron, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemispheric temperature series suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded

  3. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

    2017-09-01

    Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

  4. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. F. Lewin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by  ∼  1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be  ∼  2–3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming

  5. Unusually Warm Spring Temperatures Magnify Annual CH4 Losses From Arctic Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, J. P.; Oechel, W. C.; Gioli, B.; Murphy, P.; Zona, D.

    2015-12-01

    The relatively fast pace of Northern high latitude warming puts the very large permafrost soil C pool at a higher risk of being lost to the atmosphere as CH4. Estimates for the Arctic tundra's contribution to the global wetland CH4 emissions range from 15-27 TgCH4 y-1 (8-14% of total). However, these estimates are largely based on data from the growing season, or from boreal systems underlain by discontinuous permafrost with different physical, hydrological, and biogeochemical dynamics than continuous permafrost zones. Recent data from a transect of eddy covariance flux towers across the North Slope of Alaska revealed the importance of cold season emissions to the annual CH4 budget, which may not correlate with summer flux patterns. However, understanding of the controls and inter-annual variability in fluxes at these different sites is lacking. Here, we present data from ~3 years at 5 tundra ecosystems along this Arctic transect to show the influence of earlier and deeper spring active layer thaw on timing and magnitude of CH4 fluxes. This year's warm spring led to significantly greater thaw depths and lower water tables than the previous year. Substantial CH4 emissions in 2015 were recorded at the wettest sites >20 days earlier than in the more meteorologically normal previous year. Since the soil remained saturated despite a lowered water table, total spring CH4 emissions more than doubled at these wet sites. At the drier sites, soil moisture declined with water table during the warmer spring, resulting in similar emissions to the previous year. However, deeper thaw depths prolonged fall and early winter emissions during the 'zero-curtain' soil temperature freezing phase, particularly at the drier site. In general, warmer spring temperatures in the Arctic may result in large increases in early season CH4 losses at wet sites and prolonged steady losses at the upland sites, enhancing the feedback between changing climate and tundra CH4 emissions at all sites.

  6. Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability during 2014 and 2015 and associated Indo-Pacific upper ocean temperature patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakatkar, Rashmi; Gnanaseelan, C.; Chowdary, J. S.; Parekh, Anant; Deepa, J. S.

    2018-02-01

    In this study, factors responsible for the deficit Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall in 2014 and 2015 and the ability of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (IITM-GODAS) in representing the oceanic features are examined. IITM-GODAS has been used to provide initial conditions for seasonal forecast in India during 2014 and 2015. The years 2014 and 2015 witnessed deficit ISM rainfall but were evolved from two entirely different preconditions over Pacific. This raises concern over the present understanding of the role of Pacific Ocean on ISM variability. Analysis reveals that the mechanisms associated with the rainfall deficit over the Indian Subcontinent are different in the two years. It is found that remote forcing in summer of 2015 due to El Niño is mostly responsible for the deficit monsoon rainfall through changes in Walker circulation and large-scale subsidence. In the case of the summer of 2014, both local circulation with anomalous anticyclone over central India and intrusion of mid-latitude dry winds from north have contributed for the deficit rainfall. In addition to the above, Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) and remote forcing from Pacific Ocean also modulated the ISM rainfall. It is observed that Pacific SST warming has extended westward in 2014, making it a basin scale warming unlike the strong El Niño year 2015. The eastern equatorial Indian Ocean is anomalously warmer than west in summer of 2014, and vice versa in 2015. These differences in SST in both tropical Pacific and TIO have considerable impact on ISM rainfall in 2014 and 2015. The study reveals that initializing coupled forecast models with proper upper ocean temperature over the Indo-Pacific is therefore essential for improved model forecast. It is important to note that the IITM-GODAS which assimilates only array for real-time geostrophic oceanography (ARGO) temperature and salinity profiles could capture most of the

  7. Role of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region in the northeast Asia severe drought in summer 2014: month-to-month perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiqing; Fan, Ke; Wang, HuiJun

    2017-09-01

    The severe drought over northeast Asia in summer 2014 and the contribution to it by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region were investigated from the month-to-month perspective. The severe drought was accompanied by weak lower-level summer monsoon flow and featured an obvious northward movement during summer. The mid-latitude Asian summer (MAS) pattern and East Asia/Pacific teleconnection (EAP) pattern, induced by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) rainfall anomalies respectively, were two main bridges between the SST anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific region and the severe drought. Warming in the Arabian Sea induced reduced rainfall over northeast India and then triggered a negative MAS pattern favoring the severe drought in June 2014. In July 2014, warming in the tropical western North Pacific led to a strong WNPSM and increased rainfall over the Philippine Sea, triggering a positive EAP pattern. The equatorial eastern Pacific and local warming resulted in increased rainfall over the off-equatorial western Pacific and triggered an EAP-like pattern. The EAP pattern and EAP-like pattern contributed to the severe drought in July 2014. A negative Indian Ocean dipole induced an anomalous meridional circulation, and warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific induced an anomalous zonal circulation, in August 2014. The two anomalous cells led to a weak ISM and WNPSM, triggering the negative MAS and EAP patterns responsible for the severe drought. Two possible reasons for the northward movement of the drought were also proposed.

  8. Distribution and growth of salps in a Kuroshio warm-core ring during summer 1987

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuda, Atsushi; Nemoto, Takahisa

    1992-03-01

    A salp bloom, accounting for 47% of the macrozooplankton wet weight in the upper 200 m, was observed in a Kuroshio warm-core ring and adjacent areas during September 1987. Although salps had wide distribution and high biomass in the ring and adjacent southern areas, they did not occur north of the northern ring front. Thalia democratica dominated in these areas and Salpa fusiformis was abundant at some stations. Salps were distributed only in the upper 200 m of the water column. The maximum abundance of T. democratica was in the surface mixed layer, 0-20 m. S. fusiformis was most abundant from 50 to 75 m. Diel vertical migration was observed only for solitary zooids of S. fusiformis. All other salps appeared only on the surface. The growth of aggregate zooids of T. democratica was investigated with the time-series sampling during a 28-h sampling period following a drifter. Several cohorts were identified in the length-frequency distributions. The average relative growth rate in length was 8.0% per hour. Carbon consumption by the T. democratica population, calculated from the derived growth rate, suggested that T. democratica was a major consumer of the primary production in the ring.

  9. Compound extremes of summer temperature and precipitation leading to intensified departures from natural variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change can drive local climates outside the range of their historical year-to-year variability, straining the adaptive capacity of ecological and human communities. We demonstrate that interactions between climate variables can produce larger and earlier departures from natural variability than is detectable in individual variables. For example, summer temperature (Tx) and precipitation (Pr) are negatively correlated in most terrestrial regions, such that interannual variability lies along an axis from warm-and-dry to cool-and-wet conditions. A climate change trend perpendicular to this axis, towards warmer-wetter conditions, can depart more quickly from the range of natural variability than a warmer-drier trend. This multivariate "departure intensification" effect is evident in all six CMIP5 models that we examined: 23% (9-34%) of the land area of each model exhibits a pronounced increase in 2σ extremesin the Tx-Pr regime relative to Tx or Pr alone. Observational data suggest that Tx-Pr correlations are sufficient to produce departure intensification in distinct regions on all continents. Departures from the historical Tx-Pr regime may produce ecological disruptions, such as in plant-pathogen interactions and human diseases, that could offset the drought mitigation benefits of increased precipitation. Our study alerts researchers and adaptation practitioners to the presence of multivariate climate change signals and compound extremes that are not detectable in individual climate variables.

  10. Summer precipitation variability over Southeastern South America in a global warming scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Junquas, C. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (France); UMI-IFAECI CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), DCAO/FCEyN, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Vera, C. [UMI-IFAECI CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera (CIMA), DCAO/FCEyN, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Li, L.; Le Treut, H. [UPMC/CNRS, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris (France)

    2012-05-15

    December-January-February (DJF) rainfall variability in southeastern South America (SESA) is studied in 18 coupled general circulation models from the WCRP/CMIP3 dataset, for present climate and the SRES-A1B climate change scenario. The analysis is made in terms of properties of the first leading pattern of rainfall variability in the region, characterized by a dipole-like structure with centers of action in the SESA and South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) regions. The study was performed to address two issues: how rainfall variability in SESA would change in a future climate and how much of that change explains the projected increasing trends in the summer mean rainfall in SESA identified in previous works. Positive (negative) dipole events were identified as those DJF seasons with above (below) normal rainfall in SESA and below (above) normal rainfall in the SACZ region. Results obtained from the multi-model ensemble confirm that future rainfall variability in SESA has a strong projection on the changes of seasonal dipole pattern activity, associated with an increase of the frequency of the positive phase. In addition, the frequency increase of positive dipole phase in the twenty first century seems to be associated with an increase of both frequency and intensity of positive SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, and with a Rossby wave train-like anomaly pattern linking that ocean basin to South America, which regionally induces favorable conditions for moisture transport convergence and rainfall increase in SESA. (orig.)

  11. Effects of Ambient Temperature and Forced-air Warming on Intraoperative Core Temperature: A Factorial Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Lijian; Huang, Yuguang; Xu, Yiyao; Zheng, Yongchang; Sang, Xinting; Zhou, Xiaoyun; Li, Shanqing; Mao, Guangmei; Mascha, Edward J; Sessler, Daniel I

    2018-05-01

    The effect of ambient temperature, with and without active warming, on intraoperative core temperature remains poorly characterized. The authors determined the effect of ambient temperature on core temperature changes with and without forced-air warming. In this unblinded three-by-two factorial trial, 292 adults were randomized to ambient temperatures 19°, 21°, or 23°C, and to passive insulation or forced-air warming. The primary outcome was core temperature change between 1 and 3 h after induction. Linear mixed-effects models assessed the effects of ambient temperature, warming method, and their interaction. A 1°C increase in ambient temperature attenuated the negative slope of core temperature change 1 to 3 h after anesthesia induction by 0.03 (98.3% CI, 0.01 to 0.06) °Ccore/(h°Cambient) (P ambient temperature with passive insulation, but was unaffected by ambient temperature during forced-air warming (0.02 [98.3% CI, -0.04 to 0.09] °Ccore/°Cambient; P = 0.40). After an average of 3.4 h of surgery, core temperature was 36.3° ± 0.5°C in each of the forced-air groups, and ranged from 35.6° to 36.1°C in passively insulated patients. Ambient intraoperative temperature has a negligible effect on core temperature when patients are warmed with forced air. The effect is larger when patients are passively insulated, but the magnitude remains small. Ambient temperature can thus be set to comfortable levels for staff in patients who are actively warmed.

  12. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on precipitation and temperature in Florida during North Atlantic cold spells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donders, Timme H. [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); TNO Geological Survey of the Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Boer, Hugo Jan de; Dekker, Stefan C. [Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80115, Utrecht (Netherlands); Finsinger, Walter; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Grimm, Eric C. [Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, Springfield, IL (United States); Reichart, Gert Jan [Utrecht University, Geochemistry, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80021, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-01-15

    Recurrent phases of increased pine at Lake Tulane, Florida have previously been related to strong stadials terminated by so-called Heinrich events. The climatic significance of these pine phases has been interpreted in different ways. Using a pollen-climate inference model, we quantified the climate changes and consistently found that mean summer precipitation (P{sub JJA}) increased (0.5-0.9 mm/day) and mean November temperature increased (2.0-3.0 C) during pine phases coeval with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. Marine sea surface temperature records indicate that potential sources for these moisture and heat anomalies are in the Gulf of Mexico and the western tropical Atlantic. We explain this low latitude warming by an increased Loop Current facilitated by persistence of the Atlantic Warm Pool during summer. This hypothesis is supported by a climate model sensitivity analysis. A positive heat anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic best approximates the pollen-inferred climate reconstructions from Lake Tulane during the (stadials around) Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. (orig.)

  13. Effects of forest harvesting on summer stream temperatures in New Brunswick, Canada: an inter-catchment, multiple-year comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. P.-A. Bourque

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a pre- and post-harvest comparison of stream temperatures collected in five neighbouring streams (sub-catchments over a period of five years (1994-1998. The aim of the study was to determine whether land cover changes from clear cutting in areas outside forest buffer zones (applied to streams >0.5 m wide might contribute to an increase in summer mean stream temperatures in buffered streams downslope by infusion of warmed surface and sub-surface water into the streams. Specific relationships were observed in all five forest streams investigated. To assist in the analysis, several spatially-relevant variables, such as land cover change, mid-summer potential solar radiation, flow accumulation, stream location and slope of the land were determined, in part, from existing aerial photographs, GIS-archived forest inventory data and a digital terrain model of the study area. Spatial calculations of insolation levels for July 15th were used as an index of mid-summer solar heating across sub-catchments. Analysis indicated that prior to the 1995 harvest, differences in stream temperature could be attributed to (i topographic position and catchment-to-sun orientation, (ii the level of cutting that occurred in the upper catchment prior to the start of the study, and (iii the average slope within harvested areas. Compared to the pre-harvest mean stream temperatures in 1994, mean temperatures in the three streams downslope from the 1995 harvest areas increased by 0.3 to 0.7°C (representing a 4-8% increase; p-value of normalised temperatures Keywords: terrain attributes, solar radiation, land cover, forest buffers, New Brunswick regulations, spatial modelling, DEM, forest covertypes

  14. Belowground heathland responses after 2 years of combined warming, elevated CO2 and summer drought

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Louise C.; Michelsen, Anders; Ambus, Per

    2010-01-01

    significantly to the treatments. In the combined temperature and CO2 treatment the dissolved organic nitrogen concentration decreased and the ammonium concentration increased, but this release of nutrients was not mirrored by plant parameters. Microbial biomass carbon and microbial enrichment with 13C and 15N...

  15. A 560 yr summer temperature reconstruction for the Western Mediterranean basin based on stable carbon isotopes from Pinus nigra ssp. laricio (Corsica/France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kuhlemann

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is considered as an area which will be affected strongly by current climate change. However, temperature records for the past centuries which can contribute to a better understanding of future climate changes are still sparse for this region. Carbon isotope chronologies from tree-rings often mirror temperature history but their application as climate proxies is difficult due to the influence of the anthropogenic change in atmospheric CO2 on the carbon isotope fractionation during photosynthetic CO2 uptake. We tested the influence of different correction models accounting for plant response to increased atmospheric CO2 on four annually resolved long-term carbon isotope records (between 400 and 800 yr derived from Corsican pine trees (Pinus nigra ssp. laricio growing at ecologically varying mountain sites on the island of Corsica. The different correction factors have only a minor influence on the main climate signals and resulting temperature reconstructions. Carbon isotope series show strong correlations with summer temperature and precipitation. A summer temperature reconstruction (1448–2007 AD reveals that the Little Ice Age was characterised by low, but not extremely low temperatures on Corsica. Temperatures have been to modern temperatures at around 1500 AD. The reconstruction reveals warm summers during 1480–1520 and 1950–2007 AD and cool summers during 1580–1620 and 1820–1890 AD.

  16. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  17. Antagonism between elevated CO2, nighttime warming, and summer drought reduces the robustness of PSII performance to freezing events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albert, Kristian Rost; Boesgaard, Kristine Stove; Ro-Poulsen, Helge

    2013-01-01

    yield in light, Fv′/Fm′, using the pulse amplitude methodology, and the total performance index, PItotal, which integrate changes of the chlorophyll-a fluorescence transient including the maximal quantum yield in darkness, Fv/Fm.Decreasing temperature during autumn linearly reduced PItotal, both...... in the wavy hair-grass, Deschampsia flexuosa, and in the evergreen dwarf shrub common heather, Calluna vulgaris, and following freezing events the PItotal and Fv′/Fm′ were reduced even more. Contrary to expected, indirect effects of the previous summer drought reduced PSII performance before freezing events...

  18. Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

    KAUST Repository

    Sawall, Yvonne

    2015-03-10

    Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

  19. Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming

    KAUST Repository

    Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, Abdulmoshin; Hohn, Sö nke; Banguera Hinestroza, Eulalia; Voolstra, Christian R.; Wahl, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12° latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5°N, 21-27°C) and southern (16.5°N, 28-33°C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29°C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals.

  20. A study of energy performance and audit of commercial mall in hot-summer/warm-winter climate zone in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhisheng, Li; Jiawen, Liao; Xiaoxia, Wang [School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510006 (China); Lin, Yaolin [Building Energy Solutions and Technologies, Inc, San Jose Office, San Jose, CA 95134 (United States); Xuhong, Liu [School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong, 510643 (China)

    2013-08-15

    The building energy performance improvement of large-scale public buildings is very important to release China's energy shortage pressure. The aim of the study is to find out the building energy saving potentials of large-scale public and commercial buildings by energy audit. In this paper, the energy consumption, energy performance, and audit were carried out for a typical commercial mall, the so-called largest mall in Asia, located in a hot-summer and warm-winter climate zone. The total annual energy consumption reaches 210.01 kWh/m{sup 2}, of which lighting energy consumption accounts for 30.03 kWh/m{sup 2} and the lift and elevator energy consumption accounts for 40.46 kWh/m{sup 2}. It is by far higher than that of the average building energy consumption in the same category. However, the annual heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption is only 87.19 kWh/m{sup 2} even though they run 24/7. It proves that the energy performance of the HVAC system is good. Therefore, the building energy savings potential mainly relies on reducing the excessive usage of lighting, lifts, and elevators.

  1. Early-Holocene decoupled summer temperature and monsoon precipitation in southwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Chen, F.; Chen, X.; Lv, F.; Zhou, A.; Chen, J.; Abbott, M. B.; Yu, J.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy based reconstructions of Holocene temperature have shown that both the timing and magnitude of the thermal maximum vary substantially between different regions; the simulations results from climate models also show that summers were substantially cooler over regions directly influenced by the presence of the Laurentide ice sheet during the early Holocene, whereas other regions of the Northern Hemisphere were dominated by orbital forcing. However, for lack of summer temperature reconstruction in the low latitude regions like southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, the Holocene summer temperature variations and it underlying forcing mechanism are ambiguous. Here we present a well-dated record of pollen-based quantitative summer temperature (mean July; MJT) over the last 14000 years from Xingyun Lake, Yunnan Province, southwest China. It was found that MJT decreased during the YD event, then increased slowly until 7400 yr BP, and decreased thereafter. The MJT shows a pattern with middle Holocene maximum of MJT, indicating a different changing pattern with the carbonate oxygen isotope record (d18O) from the same core during the early Holocene (11500-7400 yr BP), which has the similar variation with speleothem d18O record from Dongge cave, both indicate the variation of monsoon precipitation with the highest precipitation occurred during the early Holocene. Therefore, we propose that the variation of summer temperature and precipitation in southwest China was decoupled during the early Holocene. However, both MJT and monsoon precipitation decreased after the middle Holocene following the boreal summer insolation. We suggest that the high precipitation with strong summer monsoon and hence higher cloud cover may depress the temperature increasing forced by increasing summer insolation during the early Holocene; while melting ice-sheet in the high latitude regions had strongly influenced the summer temperature increase during the deglacial period

  2. Diagnosing the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature and summer precipitation in southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingpeng; Ren, Hong-Li; Li, Weijing; Zuo, Jinqing

    2018-03-01

    Precipitation in southern China during boreal summer (June to August) shows a substantial interdecadal variability on the timescale longer than 8 years. In this study, based on the analysis of singular value decomposition, we diagnose the leading mode of interdecadal covariability between the observational precipitation in southern China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean. Results indicate that there exist a remarkable southern China zonal dipole (SCZD) pattern of interdecadal variability of summer precipitation and an interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (ID-IOBM) of SST. It is found that the SCZD is evidently covaried with the ID-IOBM, which may induce anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and atmospheric Kelvin waves. During the warm phase of the ID-IOBM, an enhanced lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence exist over the tropical Indian Ocean, which is a typical Gill-Matsuno-type response to the SST warming. Meanwhile, the accompanied upper-level outflow anomalies further converge over the Indo-China peninsula, resulting in a lower-level anticyclone that contributes to reduction of the eastward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal to the west part of southern China. In addition, the Kelvin wave-like pattern, as a response of the warm ID-IOBM phase, further induces the lower-level anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea-Philippines. Such an anticyclonic circulation is favorable for more water vapor transport from the East China Sea into the east part of southern China. Therefore, the joint effects of the anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation and the Kelvin wave-like pattern associated with the ID-IOBM may eventually play a key role in generating the SCZD pattern.

  3. Atmospheric Circulation Patterns over East Asia and Their Connection with Summer Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China during 1961-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuping; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2018-04-01

    Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Chinese observational data during 1961-2013, atmospheric circulation patterns over East Asia in summer and their connection with precipitation and surface air temperature in eastern China as well as associated external forcing are investigated. Three patterns of the atmospheric circulation are identified, all with quasi-barotropic structures: (1) the East Asia/Pacific (EAP) pattern, (2) the Baikal Lake/Okhotsk Sea (BLOS) pattern, and (3) the eastern China/northern Okhotsk Sea (ECNOS) pattern. The positive EAP pattern significantly increases precipitation over the Yangtze River valley and favors cooling north of the Yangtze River and warming south of the Yangtze River in summer. The warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean suppress convection over the northwestern subtropical Pacific through the Ekman divergence induced by a Kelvin wave and excite the EAP pattern. The positive BLOS pattern is associated with below-average precipitation south of the Yangtze River and robust cooling over northeastern China. This pattern is triggered by anomalous spring sea ice concentration in the northern Barents Sea. The anomalous sea ice concentration contributes to a Rossby wave activity flux originating from the Greenland Sea, which propagates eastward to North Pacific. The positive ECNOS pattern leads to below-average precipitation and significant warming over northeastern China in summer. The reduced soil moisture associated with the earlier spring snowmelt enhances surface warming over Mongolia and northeastern China and the later spring snowmelt leads to surface cooling over Far East in summer, both of which are responsible for the formation of the ECNOS pattern.

  4. Effects of copper, hypoxia and acute temperature shifts on mitochondrial oxidation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) acclimated to warm temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sappal, Ravinder; Fast, Mark; Stevens, Don; Kibenge, Fred; Siah, Ahmed; Kamunde, Collins

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Warm acclimation reduced the electron transport system (ETS) efficiency. • Warm acclimation altered the effects of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu on ETS. • Warm acclimation increased thermal sensitivity of state 3 and reduced that of state 4. • Cu stimulated while hypoxia inhibited ETS respiratory activity. • Interactions of Cu and hypoxia on the ETS and plasma metabolites were antagonistic. - Abstract: Temperature fluctuations, hypoxia and metals pollution frequently occur simultaneously or sequentially in aquatic systems and their interactions may confound interpretation of their biological impacts. With a focus on energy homeostasis, the present study examined how warm acclimation influences the responses and interactions of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and copper (Cu) exposure in fish. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were acclimated to cold (11 °C; control) and warm (20 °C) temperature for 3 weeks followed by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of Cu and hypoxia for 24 h. Subsequently, mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS) respiratory activity supported by complexes I–IV (CI–IV), plasma metabolites and condition indices were measured. Warm acclimation reduced fish condition, induced aerobic metabolism and altered the responses of fish to acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu. Whereas warm acclimation decelerated the ETS and increased the sensitivity of maximal oxidation rates of the proximal (CI and II) complexes to acute temperature shift, it reduced the thermal sensitivity of state 4 (proton leak). Effects of Cu with and without hypoxia were variable depending on the acclimation status and functional index. Notably, Cu stimulated respiratory activity in the proximal ETS segments, while hypoxia was mostly inhibitory and minimized the stimulatory effect of Cu. The effects of Cu and hypoxia were modified by temperature and showed reciprocal antagonistic interaction on the ETS and plasma

  5. Effects of copper, hypoxia and acute temperature shifts on mitochondrial oxidation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) acclimated to warm temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sappal, Ravinder [Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Department of Biomedical Sciences, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Fast, Mark [Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Stevens, Don [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Kibenge, Fred [Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada); Siah, Ahmed [British Columbia Centre for Aquatic Health Sciences, 871A Island Highway, Campbell River, British Columbia V9W 2C2 (Canada); Kamunde, Collins, E-mail: ckamunde@upei.ca [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island C1A 4P3 (Canada)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • Warm acclimation reduced the electron transport system (ETS) efficiency. • Warm acclimation altered the effects of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu on ETS. • Warm acclimation increased thermal sensitivity of state 3 and reduced that of state 4. • Cu stimulated while hypoxia inhibited ETS respiratory activity. • Interactions of Cu and hypoxia on the ETS and plasma metabolites were antagonistic. - Abstract: Temperature fluctuations, hypoxia and metals pollution frequently occur simultaneously or sequentially in aquatic systems and their interactions may confound interpretation of their biological impacts. With a focus on energy homeostasis, the present study examined how warm acclimation influences the responses and interactions of acute temperature shift, hypoxia and copper (Cu) exposure in fish. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were acclimated to cold (11 °C; control) and warm (20 °C) temperature for 3 weeks followed by exposure to environmentally realistic levels of Cu and hypoxia for 24 h. Subsequently, mitochondrial electron transport system (ETS) respiratory activity supported by complexes I–IV (CI–IV), plasma metabolites and condition indices were measured. Warm acclimation reduced fish condition, induced aerobic metabolism and altered the responses of fish to acute temperature shift, hypoxia and Cu. Whereas warm acclimation decelerated the ETS and increased the sensitivity of maximal oxidation rates of the proximal (CI and II) complexes to acute temperature shift, it reduced the thermal sensitivity of state 4 (proton leak). Effects of Cu with and without hypoxia were variable depending on the acclimation status and functional index. Notably, Cu stimulated respiratory activity in the proximal ETS segments, while hypoxia was mostly inhibitory and minimized the stimulatory effect of Cu. The effects of Cu and hypoxia were modified by temperature and showed reciprocal antagonistic interaction on the ETS and plasma

  6. Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

    2017-12-01

    The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

  7. The Interdecadal Variability of Summer Precipitation over the South of China and its Response to Asian Monsoon at the Turning Points of Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huan; Li, Dongliang

    2017-04-01

    Under the background of global warming, decadal variability of the summer precipitation in the South of China and the Asian monsoon experienced mutations at around the end of 1970s, the beginning of 1990s and 21st century. We examined the external and internal forcings which may cause the mutations and diagnosed the mechanism. Human emission of CO2 has always been the fatal reason for global warming, and it is also the primary reason for the precipitation increasing over Yangtze-Huai river basin at the end of the 1970s. The Yangtze-Huai river basin and South China demonstrated more summer rainfall after 1993. This can be explained by the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon caused by the positive anomaly of summer SST over northwest Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. A significant trend in the enhancement of sensible heat over the TP has exerted some considerable influence on the reinforce of the EASM, accompanied by the northward migration of the summer precipitation belt shifting northward at the beginning of 21st century.

  8. Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M

    2015-09-01

    Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict. We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season. Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15-30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions. Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  9. Summer Temperature Extremes in the Northern Rockies: A Tree-Ring-Based Reconstruction (1670-2014) from the Bighorn Mountains, WY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, A.; Alfaro-Sanchez, R.; Belmecheri, S.; Moore, D. J.; Trouet, V.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change has caused global temperatures to rise in recent decades. Temperatures at the regional scale are influenced by various factors including topography, atmospheric circulation, and seasonality that superimpose year-to-year variability on this global warming trend. Here, we develop a tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the northern Rockies in order to investigate the drivers of the year-to-year temperature variability in this region. For this purpose, we sampled 10 sites in the semi-arid Bighorn Mountains, WY and developed two tree-ring width chronologies for differing elevations. The high elevation Picea engelmannii chronology (>2,630m) is positively correlated with July temperature variability, whereas the low elevation (<2,580m) chronology - consisting of Pinus contorta, Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Pinus albicaulis - is sensitive to summer precipitation and negatively correlated with June and July temperatures. A reconstruction based on a combination of the two chronologies explains 30% of the variance in regional June and July temperatures over the instrumental period, covers the period 1670-2014, and is representative for the central United States and southern Canada region. Our reconstruction shows significantly lower summer temperatures in the year following the 16 largest tropical eruptions from 1670 to the present. The reconstruction further captures the high summer temperatures during the 1930s dust bowl era and shows a steep increase in variance in the late 20th century. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific, which suggests an impact of an amplified meridional flow on northern Rockies summer temperatures.

  10. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

    2018-02-01

    Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

  11. Upper lethal temperatures in three cold-tolerant insects are higher in winter than in summer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Henry M; Duman, John G

    2017-08-01

    Upper lethal temperatures (ULTs) of cold-adapted insect species in winter have not been previously examined. We anticipated that as the lower lethal temperatures (LLTs) decreased (by 20-30°C) with the onset of winter, the ULTs would also decrease accordingly. Consequently, given the recent increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles and warmer winters due to climate change, it became of interest to determine whether ambient temperatures during thaws were approaching ULTs during the cold seasons. However, beetle Dendroides canadensis (Coleoptera: Pyrochroidae) larvae had higher 24 and 48 h ULT 50 (the temperature at which 50% mortality occurred) in winter than in summer. The 24 and 48 h ULT 50 for D. canadensis in winter were 40.9 and 38.7°C, respectively. For D. canadensis in summer, the 24 and 48 h ULT 50 were 36.7 and 36.4°C. During the transition periods of spring and autumn, the 24 h ULT 50 was 37.3 and 38.5°C, respectively. While D. canadensis in winter had a 24 h LT 50 range between LLT and ULT of 64°C, the summer range was only 41°C. Additionally, larvae of the beetle Cucujus clavipes clavipes (Coleoptera: Cucujidae) and the cranefly Tipula trivittata (Diptera: Tipulidae) also had higher ULTs in winter than in summer. This unexpected phenomenon of increased temperature survivorship at both lower and higher temperatures in the winter compared with that in the summer has not been previously documented. With the decreased high temperature tolerance as the season progresses from winter to summer, it was observed that environmental temperatures are closest to upper lethal temperatures in spring. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  12. Soil warming increases metabolic quotients of soil microorganisms without changes in temperature sensitivity of soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marañón-Jiménez, Sara; Soong, Jenniffer L.; Leblans, Niki I. W.; Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.; Dauwe, Steven; Fransen, Erik; Janssens, Ivan A.

    2017-04-01

    Increasing temperatures can accelerate soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition and release large amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, potentially inducing climate change feedbacks. Alterations to the temperature sensitivity and metabolic pathways of soil microorganisms in response to soil warming can play a key role in these soil carbon (C) losses. Here, we present results of an incubation experiment using soils from a geothermal gradient in Iceland that have been subjected to different intensities of soil warming (+0, +1, +3, +5, +10 and +20 °C above ambient) over seven years. We hypothesized that 7 years of soil warming would led to a depletion of labile organic substrates, with a subsequent decrease of the "apparent" temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. Associated to this C limitation and more sub-optimal conditions for microbial growth, we also hypothesized increased microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass), which is associated with increases in the relative amount of C invested into catabolic pathways along the warming gradient. Soil respiration and basal respiration rates decreased with soil warming intensity, in parallel with a decline in soil C availability. Contrasting to our first hypothesis, we did not detect changes in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration with soil warming or on the availability of nutrients and of labile C substrates at the time of incubation. However, in agreement to our second hypothesis, microbial metabolic quotients (soil respiration per unit of microbial biomass) increased at warmer temperatures, while the C retained in biomass decreased as substrate became limiting. Long-term (7 years) temperature increases thus triggered a change in the metabolic functioning of the soil microbial communities towards increasing energy costs for maintenance or resource acquisition, thereby lowering the capacity of C retention and stabilization of warmed soils. These results highlight the need

  13. Global Warming and Changing Temperature Patterns over Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper discusses the changing temperature pattern over Mauritius. We observe an increase of the annual mean temperature at Pamplemousses since 1876 with an average rate of 0.009oC per year with a significant correlation coefficient of 0.67. Compared to the mean temperature for the period of 1951 to 1960, we ...

  14. Case study: Investigating the causes of temperature breaks in South African summer fruit export cold chains

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goedhals-Gerber, LL

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the causes and extent of temperature breaks in the South African summer fruit export cold chain from the pack house to the vessel. Numerous causes of temperature breaks throughout the cold chain were found, resulting in many...

  15. Extreme Temperature Exceedances Change more Rapidly Under Future Warming in Regions of non-Gaussian Short Temperature Distribution Tails

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loikith, P. C.; Neelin, J. D.; Meyerson, J.

    2017-12-01

    Regions of shorter-than-Gaussian warm and cold side temperature distribution tails are shown to occur in spatially coherent patterns in the current climate. Under such conditions, warming may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were close to Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, the simplest prototype for future warming, a location with a short warm side tail would experience a greater increase in extreme warm exceedances compared to if the distribution were Gaussian. Similarly, for a location with a short cold side tail, a uniform warm shift would result in a rapid decrease in extreme cold exceedances. Both scenarios carry major societal and environmental implications including but not limited to negative impacts on human and ecosystem health, agriculture, and the economy. It is therefore important for climate models to be able to realistically reproduce short tails in simulations of historical climate in order to boost confidence in projections of future temperature extremes. Overall, climate models contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project capture many of the principal observed regions of short tails. This suggests the underlying dynamics and physics occur on scales resolved by the models, and helps build confidence in model projections of extremes. Furthermore, most GCMs show more rapid changes in exceedances of extreme temperature thresholds in regions of short tails. Results therefore suggest that the shape of the tails of the underlying temperature distribution is an indicator of how rapidly a location will experience changes to extreme temperature occurrence under future warming.

  16. Establishment and verification of solar radiation calculation model of glass daylighting roof in hot summer and warm winter zone in China

    OpenAIRE

    Zheng, Caidan; Wu, Peihao; Costanzo, Vincenzo; Wang, Yuchen; Yang, Xiaokun

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, solar heat gain through glass daylighting roof is deeply studied by theoretical calculation method, taking Guangzhou in the Hot Summer and Warm Winter (HSWW) zone as an example. The direct solar radiation is calculated by Bouguer formula whereas the diffuse solar radiation is calculated by Berlage formula, representing the basis for the calculation method of the solar radiation intensity through the glass daylighting roof. Through the establishment of solar radiation calculatio...

  17. Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

    2016-05-01

    The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

  18. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

  19. Large ground warming in the Canadian Arctic inferred from inversions of temperature logs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J. A.; Skinner, W. R.; Šafanda, Jan

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 221, č. 1 (2004), s. 15-25 ISSN 0012-821X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : global warming * borehole temperatures * ground temperatures Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 3.499, year: 2004

  20. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, van Geert Jan

    2018-01-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role

  1. Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A

    2018-05-08

    In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

  2. Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteman, J.P.; Harlow, H.J.; Durner, George M.; Anderson-Sprecher, R.; Albeke, Shannon E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Ben-David, M.

    2015-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of “ice” bears in summer is unknown, “shore” bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation.

  3. Animal physiology. Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiteman, J P; Harlow, H J; Durner, G M; Anderson-Sprecher, R; Albeke, S E; Regehr, E V; Amstrup, S C; Ben-David, M

    2015-07-17

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) summer on the sea ice or, where it melts, on shore. Although the physiology of "ice" bears in summer is unknown, "shore" bears purportedly minimize energy losses by entering a hibernation-like state when deprived of food. Such a strategy could partially compensate for the loss of on-ice foraging opportunities caused by climate change. However, here we report gradual, moderate declines in activity and body temperature of both shore and ice bears in summer, resembling energy expenditures typical of fasting, nonhibernating mammals. Also, we found that to avoid unsustainable heat loss while swimming, bears employed unusual heterothermy of the body core. Thus, although well adapted to seasonal ice melt, polar bears appear susceptible to deleterious declines in body condition during the lengthening period of summer food deprivation. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Warm Body Temperature Facilitates Energy Efficient Cortical Action Potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yuguo; Hill, Adam P.; McCormick, David A.

    2012-01-01

    The energy efficiency of neural signal transmission is important not only as a limiting factor in brain architecture, but it also influences the interpretation of functional brain imaging signals. Action potential generation in mammalian, versus invertebrate, axons is remarkably energy efficient. Here we demonstrate that this increase in energy efficiency is due largely to a warmer body temperature. Increases in temperature result in an exponential increase in energy efficiency for single action potentials by increasing the rate of Na+ channel inactivation, resulting in a marked reduction in overlap of the inward Na+, and outward K+, currents and a shortening of action potential duration. This increase in single spike efficiency is, however, counterbalanced by a temperature-dependent decrease in the amplitude and duration of the spike afterhyperpolarization, resulting in a nonlinear increase in the spike firing rate, particularly at temperatures above approximately 35°C. Interestingly, the total energy cost, as measured by the multiplication of total Na+ entry per spike and average firing rate in response to a constant input, reaches a global minimum between 37–42°C. Our results indicate that increases in temperature result in an unexpected increase in energy efficiency, especially near normal body temperature, thus allowing the brain to utilize an energy efficient neural code. PMID:22511855

  5. Warm body temperature facilitates energy efficient cortical action potentials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuguo Yu

    Full Text Available The energy efficiency of neural signal transmission is important not only as a limiting factor in brain architecture, but it also influences the interpretation of functional brain imaging signals. Action potential generation in mammalian, versus invertebrate, axons is remarkably energy efficient. Here we demonstrate that this increase in energy efficiency is due largely to a warmer body temperature. Increases in temperature result in an exponential increase in energy efficiency for single action potentials by increasing the rate of Na(+ channel inactivation, resulting in a marked reduction in overlap of the inward Na(+, and outward K(+, currents and a shortening of action potential duration. This increase in single spike efficiency is, however, counterbalanced by a temperature-dependent decrease in the amplitude and duration of the spike afterhyperpolarization, resulting in a nonlinear increase in the spike firing rate, particularly at temperatures above approximately 35°C. Interestingly, the total energy cost, as measured by the multiplication of total Na(+ entry per spike and average firing rate in response to a constant input, reaches a global minimum between 37-42°C. Our results indicate that increases in temperature result in an unexpected increase in energy efficiency, especially near normal body temperature, thus allowing the brain to utilize an energy efficient neural code.

  6. Tensile deformation behavior of AA5083-H111 at cold and warm temperatures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ozturk, Fahrettin; Toros, Serkan; Kilic, Suleyman [Nidge Univ. (Turkey). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2010-09-15

    The effects of strain rate and temperature on the deformation behavior of hardened 5083-H111 aluminum magnesium alloy sheet were investigated by performing uniaxial tensile tests at various strain rates from 0.0083 to 0.16 s{sup -1} and temperatures from -100 to 300 C. Results from the prescribed test ranges indicate that the formability of this material at cold and warm temperatures is better than at room temperature. The improvement in formability at cold temperatures is principally due to the strain hardening of the material. However, the improvement at warm temperature and low strain rate is specifically due to the high strain rate sensitivity characteristic of the material. Results indicate that this alloy should be formed at temperatures higher than 200 C and at low strain rates. (orig.)

  7. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  8. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambarish V Karmalkar

    Full Text Available The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation

  9. Consequences of Global Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C for Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Contiguous United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V; Bradley, Raymond S

    2017-01-01

    The differential warming of land and ocean leads to many continental regions in the Northern Hemisphere warming at rates higher than the global mean temperature. Adaptation and conservation efforts will, therefore, benefit from understanding regional consequences of limiting the global mean temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a limit agreed upon at the United Nations Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. Here, we analyze climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to determine the timing and magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes across the contiguous United States (US) for global warming of 1.5 and 2°C and highlight consensus and uncertainties in model projections and their implications for making decisions. The regional warming rates differ considerably across the contiguous US, but all regions are projected to reach 2°C about 10-20 years before the global mean temperature. Although there is uncertainty in the timing of exactly when the 1.5 and 2°C thresholds will be crossed regionally, over 80% of the models project at least 2°C warming by 2050 for all regions for the high emissions scenario. This threshold-based approach also highlights regional variations in the rate of warming across the US. The fastest warming region in the contiguous US is the Northeast, which is projected to warm by 3°C when global warming reaches 2°C. The signal-to-noise ratio calculations indicate that the regional warming estimates remain outside the envelope of uncertainty throughout the twenty-first century, making them potentially useful to planners. The regional precipitation projections for global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C are uncertain, but the eastern US is projected to experience wetter winters and the Great Plains and the Northwest US are projected to experience drier summers in the future. The impact of different scenarios on regional precipitation projections is

  10. Comparison of instrumental and interpolated meteorological data-based summer temperature reconstructions on Mt. Taibai in the Qinling Mountains, northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Jin; Bai, Hongying; Su, Kai; Liu, Rongjuan; Zhai, Danping; Wang, Jun; Li, Shuheng; Zhou, Qi; Li, Bin

    2018-01-01

    Previous dendroclimatical studies have been based on the relationship between tree growth and instrumental climate data recorded at lower land meteorological stations, but the climate conditions somehow differ between sampling sites and distant population centers. Thus, in this study, we performed a comparison between the 152-year reconstruction of June to July mean air temperature on the basis of interpolated meteorological data and instrumental meteorological data. The reconstruction explained 38.7% of the variance in the interpolated temperature data (37.2% after the degrees of freedom were adjusted) and 39.6% of the variance in the instrumental temperature data (38.4% after adjustment for loss of degrees of freedom) during the period 1962-2013 AD. The first global warming (the 1920s) and recent warming (1990-2013) found from the reconstructed temperature series match reasonably well with two other reported summer temperature reconstructions from north-central China. Cold periods occurred three times during 1866-1885, 1901-1921, and 1981-2000, while hot periods occurred four times during 1886-1900, 1922-1933, 1953-1966, and 2001-2007. The extreme warm (cold) years are coherent with the documentary drought (flood) events. Significant 31-22-year, 22-18-year, and 12-8-year cycles indicate major fluctuations in regional temperatures may reflect large-scale climatic shifts.

  11. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, A.P. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos, NM (United States); University of California, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Funk, Chris [University of California, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS), Sioux Falls, SD (United States); Michaelsen, Joel [University of California, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States); Rauscher, Sara A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos, NM (United States); Robertson, Iain; Loader, Neil J. [Swansea University, Department of Geography, College of Science, Swansea (United Kingdom); Wils, Tommy H.G. [Rotterdam University, Department of Geography, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Koprowski, Marcin [Nicolaus Copernicus University, Laboratory of Dendrochronology, Institute of Ecology and Environment Protection, Torun (Poland); Eshetu, Zewdu [Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Forestry Research Centre, Addis Ababa (Ethiopia)

    2012-11-15

    We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer. (orig.)

  12. Effects of elevated summer temperatures and reduced pH on metabolism and growth of juvenile trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on unlimited ration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dockray, J.J.; Reid, S.D.; Wood, C.M.

    1996-01-01

    Juvenile trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were exposed to a simulated global warming - acidic water scenario over a 90-day summer period (control temperature range 13-24 o C). The addition of 2 o C to the fluctuating summer cycle of inshore Lake Ontario and H 2 SO 4 to synthetic soft water resulted in four treatments: control, acidification of control, simulated global warming alone, and global warming plus acidification. The twice-daily feeding regime raised metabolic rates to ∼75% of MO 2 (max). Large increases (from 4.5 to 11.5%) in whole-body lipid, smaller increases (from 12.0 to 15.5%) in protein, and compensating decreases in water content (from 77 to 71%) occurred in all treatments over time. The addition of 2 o C resulted in depressed appetites and growth, particularly after the period of peak temperature (days 60-90; 26 o C). Metabolic rate and nitrogenous waste excretion were also depressed. Overall, exposure to low pH resulted in increased appetites and growth, the increase of 2 o C reduced gross energy intake and increased fecal energy losses, and exposure to low pH resulted in increased energy intake and gain and better conversion efficiency. The lack of ionregulatory disturbance in trout chronically exposed to pH 5.2 suggested that dietary NaCl may have compensated for branchial ion losses. (author). 63 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  13. A chironomid-based reconstruction of summer temperatures in NW Iceland since AD 1650

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langdon, P. G.; Caseldine, C. J.; Croudace, I. W.; Jarvis, S.; Wastegård, S.; Crowford, T. C.

    2011-05-01

    Few studies currently exist that aim to validate a proxy chironomid-temperature reconstruction with instrumental temperature measurements. We used a reconstruction from a chironomid percentage abundance data set to produce quantitative summer temperature estimates since AD 1650 for NW Iceland through a transfer function approach, and validated the record against instrumental temperature measurements from Stykkishólmur in western Iceland. The core was dated through Pb-210, Cs-137 and tephra analyses (Hekla 1693) which produced a well-constrained dating model across the whole study period. Little catchment disturbance, as shown through geochemical (Itrax) and loss-on-ignition data, throughout the period further reinforce the premise that the chironomids were responding to temperature and not other catchment or within-lake variables. Particularly cold phases were identified between AD 1683-1710, AD 1765-1780 and AD 1890-1917, with relative drops in summer temperatures in the order of 1.5-2°C. The timing of these cold phases agree well with other evidence of cooler temperatures, notably increased extent of Little Ice Age (LIA) glaciers. Our evidence suggests that the magnitude of summer temperature cooling (1.5-2°C) was enough to force LIA Icelandic glaciers into their maximum Holocene extent, which is in accordance with previous modelling experiments for an Icelandic ice cap (Langjökull).

  14. Shifting the Arctic Carbon Balance: Effects of a Long-Term Fertilization Experiment and Anomalously Warm Temperatures on Net Ecosystem Exchange in the Alaskan Tundra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, S.; Natali, S.; Rastetter, E. B.; Shaver, G. R.; Graham, L. M.; Jastrow, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    The arctic is warming at an accelerated rate relative to the globe. Among the predicted consequences of warming temperatures in the arctic are increased gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and nutrient availability. The net effect of these changes on the carbon (C) cycle and resulting C balance and feedback to climate change remain unclear. Historically the Arctic has been a C sink, but evidence from recent years suggests some regions in the Arctic are becoming C sources. To predict the role of the Arctic in global C cycling, the mechanisms affecting arctic C balances need to be better resolved. We measured net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a long-term, multi-level, fertilization experiment at Toolik Lake, AK during an anomalously warm summer. We modeled NEE, ER, and GPP using a Bayesian network model. The best-fit model included Q10 temperature functions and linear fertilization functions for both ER and GPP. ER was more strongly affected by temperature and GPP was driven more by fertilization level. As a result, fertilization increased the C sink capacity, but only at moderate and low temperatures. At high temperatures (>28 °C) the NEE modeled for the highest level of fertilization was not significantly different from zero. In contrast, at ambient nutrient levels modeled NEE was significantly below zero (net uptake) until 35 °C, when it becomes neutral. Regardless of the level of fertilization, NEE never decreased with warming. Temperature in low ranges (5-15°C) had no net effect on NEE, whereas NEE began to increase exponentially with temperature after a threshold of 15°C until becoming a net source to the atmosphere at 37°C. Our results indicate that the C sink strength of tundra ecosystems can be increased with small increases in nutrient availability, but that large increase in nutrient availability can switch tundra ecosystems into C sources under warm conditions. Warming temperatures in tundra ecosystems will only decrease C

  15. Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Crabbe, Richard A.; Dash, J.; Rodriguez-Galiano, V. F.; Janouš, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V.

    563-564, sep (2016), s. 486-495 ISSN 0048-9697 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : land surface phenology * Envisat MTCI * anomalous temperature * climate variability * lagged effect * forest ecology Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 4.900, year: 2016

  16. Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2018-01-01

    Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

  17. Soil Temperature Manipulation to Study Global Warming Effects in Arable Land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, R H; Laegdsmand, M; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control......-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

  18. Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Raveendra H.; Laegdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2013-01-01

    in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005 oC between heated...... that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

  19. Potential forcings of summer temperature variability of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau in the past 12 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Enlou; Chang, Jie; Sun, Weiwei; Cao, Yanmin; Langdon, Peter; Cheng, Jun

    2018-06-01

    Investigating potential forcing mechanisms of terrestrial summer temperature changes from the Asian summer monsoon influenced area is of importance to better understand the climate variability in these densely populated regions. The results of spectral and wavelet analyses of the published chironomid reconstructed mean July temperature data from Tiancai Lake on the SE Tibetan Plateau are presented. The evidence of solar forcing of the summer temperature variability from the site on centennial timescales where key solar periodicities (at 855 ± 40, 465 ± 40, 315 ± 40 and 165 ± 40 year) are revealed. By using a band-pass filter, coherent fluctuations were found in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and high elevation mid-latitude (26°N) terrestrial temperatures with solar sunspot cycles since about 7.6 ka. The two abrupt cooling events detected from the Tiancai Lake record, centered at ∼9.7 and 3.5 ka were examined respectively. Coupled with the paleoclimate modeling results, the early Holocene event (9.7 ka) is possibly linked to an ocean-atmospheric feedback mechanism whereas the latter event (3.5 ka) may be more directly related to external forcing.

  20. Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.

    2016-02-01

    This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.

  1. Effect of warm compress application on tissue temperature in healthy dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millard, Ralph P; Towle-Millard, Heather A; Rankin, David C; Roush, James K

    2013-03-01

    To measure the effect of warm compress application on tissue temperature in healthy dogs. 10 healthy mixed-breed dogs. Dogs were sedated with hydromorphone (0.1 mg/kg, IV) and diazepam (0.25 mg/kg, IV). Three 24-gauge thermocouple needles were inserted to a depth of 0.5 cm (superficial), 1.0 cm (middle), and 1.5 cm (deep) into a shaved, lumbar, epaxial region to measure tissue temperature. Warm (47°C) compresses were applied with gravity dependence for periods of 5, 10, and 20 minutes. Tissue temperature was recorded before compress application and at intervals for up to 80 minutes after application. Control data were collected while dogs received identical sedation but with no warm compress. Mean temperature associated with 5 minutes of heat application at the superficial, middle, and deep depths was significantly increased, compared with the control temperature. Application for 10 minutes significantly increased the temperature at all depths, compared with 5 minutes of application. Mean temperature associated with 20 minutes of application was not different at the superficial or middle depths, compared with 10 minutes of application. Temperature at the deep depth associated with 10 minutes of application was significantly higher, compared with 20 minutes of application, but all temperature increases at this depth were minimal. Results suggested that application of a warm compress should be performed for 10 minutes. Changes in temperature at a tissue depth of 1.5 cm were minimal or not detected. The optimal compress temperature to achieve therapeutic benefits was not determined.

  2. The microbial temperature sensitivity to warming is controlled by thermal adaptation and is independent of C-quality across a pan-continental survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berglund, Eva; Rousk, Johannes

    2017-04-01

    experiments including temperatures from 0 to 35˚ C. Temperature relationships were modelled using the Ratkowsky model, and cardinal points including minimum temperature (Tmin) for growth and respiration along with temperature sensitivity (Q10) values were used as indices to compare sites. Microbial communities were cold-adapted in cold sites and warm-adapted in warm sites, as shown by Tmin values ranging from ca. -20 ˚ C to 0 ˚ C. For every 1˚ C rise in MAT, Tmin increased by 0.22˚ C and 0.28˚ C for bacteria and fungi, respectively. Soil respiration was less dependent on MAT, increasing 0.16 ˚ C per 1˚ C. Temperature dependence analyses grew stronger when regressed against summer temperatures, and weaker when regressed against winter temperatures. Hence, microbial communities adjusted their temperature dependence for growth more than for respiration, and higher temperatures had more impact than low temperatures did. The correlation between Tmin and MAT resulted in Q10s increasing with MAT, showing that microorganisms from cold regions were less temperature sensitive than those from warmer regions. For every 1˚ C increase in MAT, Q10 increased with 0.04 and 0.03 units for bacterial and fungal growth respectively, and 0.08 units for soil respiration. In contrast to previous studies, we found no relationship between temperature sensitivity and substrate quality. We demonstrate that the strongest driver of variation in microbial temperatures sensitivities (Q10s) is the microbial adaptation to its thermal environment. Surprisingly, the quality of SOM had no influence on the temperature sensitivity. This calls for a revision of the understanding for how microbial decomposers feed-back to climate warming. Specifically, the thermal adaptation of microbial communities need to be incorporated into climate models to capture responses to warming, while the quality of SOM can be ignored.

  3. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia-Herrera , R.; Diaz , J.; Trigo , R. M.; Hernández , E.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal) and Madrid (Spain). Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid). The impact of most intense heat events is very ...

  4. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

  5. Relationship between alpine tourism demand and hot summer air temperatures associated with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebetez, M.; Serquet, G.

    2010-09-01

    We quantified the impacts of hot summer air temperatures on tourism in the Swiss Alps by analyzing the relationship between temperature and overnight stays in 40 Alpine resorts. Several temperature and insolation thresholds were tested to detect their relationship to summer tourism. Our results reveal significant correlations between the number of nights spent in mountain resorts and hot temperatures at lower elevations. Alpine resorts nearest to cities are most sensitive to hot temperatures. This is probably because reactions to hot episodes take place on a short-term basis as heat waves remain relatively rare. The correlation in June is stronger compared to the other months, probably because school holidays and the peak domestic tourist demand in summer usually takes place in July and August. Our results suggest that alpine tourist resorts could benefit from hotter temperatures at lower elevations under future climates. Tourists already react on a short-term basis to hot days and spend more nights in hotels in mountain resorts. If heat waves become more regular, it seems likely that tourists choose to stay at alpine resorts more frequently and for longer periods.

  6. Summer temperature and spatial variability of all-cause mortality in Surat city, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S K Rathi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ample information is available on extreme heat associated mortality for few Indian cities, but scant literature is available on effect of temperature on spatial variability of all-cause mortality for coastal cities. Objective: To assess the effect of daily maximum temperature, relative humidity and heat index on spatial variability of all-cause mortality for summer months (March to May from 2014 to 2015 for the urban population of Surat (coastal city. Materials and Methods: Retrospective analysis of the all-cause mortality data with temperature and humidity was performed on a total of 9,237 deaths for 184 summer days (2014-2015. Climatic and all-cause mortality data were obtained through Tutiempo website and Surat Municipal Corporation respectively. Bivariate analysis performed through SPSS. Observations: Mean daily mortality was estimated at 50.2 ± 8.5 for the study period with a rise of 20% all-cause mortality at temperature ≥ 40°C and rise of 10% deaths per day during extreme danger level (HI: > 54°C days. Spatial (Zone wise analysis revealed rise of 61% all-cause mortality for Southeast and 30% for East zones at temperature ≥ 40°C. Conclusions: All-cause mortality increased on high summer temperature days. Presence of spatial variation in all-cause mortality provided the evidence for high risk zones. Findings may be helpful in designing the interventions at micro level.

  7. Coping with temperature at the warm edge--patterns of thermal adaptation in the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha Krenek

    Full Text Available Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia. The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats. All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change.

  8. Temperature responses of tropical to warm temperate Cladophora species in relation to their distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambridge, M. L.; Breeman, A. M.; Kraak, S.; van den Hoek, C.

    1987-09-01

    The relationship between distribution boundaries and temperature responses of some North Atlantic Cladophora species (Chlorophyta) was experimentally examined under various regimes of temperature, light and daylength. Experimentally determined critical temperature intervals, in which survival, growth or reproduction was limited, were compared with annual temperature regimes (monthly means and extremes) at sites inside and outside distribution boundaries. The species tested belonged to two phytogeographic groups: (1) the tropical West Atlantic group ( C. submarina: isolate from Curaçao) and (2) the amphiatlantic tropical to warm temperate group ( C. prolifera: isolate from Corsica; C. coelothrix: isolates from Brittany and Curaçao; and C. laetevirens: isolates from deep and shallow water in Corsica and from Brittany). In accordance with distribution from tropical to warm temperate regions, each of the species grew well between 20 30°C and reproduction and growth were limited at and below 15°C. The upper survival limit in long days was <35°C in all species but high or maximum growth rates occurred at 30°C. C. prolifera, restricted to the tropical margins, had the most limited survival at 35°C. Experimental evidence suggests that C. submarina is restricted to the Caribbean and excluded from the more northerly American mainland and Gulf of Mexico coasts by sporadic low winter temperatures in the nearshore waters, when cold northerly weather penetrates far south every few years. Experimental evidence suggests that C. prolifera, C. coelothrix and C. laetevirens are restricted to their northern European boundaries by summer temperatures too low for sufficient growth and/or reproduction. Their progressively more northerly located boundaries were accounted for by differences in growth rates over the critical 10 15°C interval. C. prolifera and C. coelothrix are excluded or restricted in distribution on North Sea coasts by lethal winter temperatures, again differences

  9. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

    2016-11-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Temperature adaptation of soil bacterial communities along an Antarctic climate gradient: predicting responses to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Rousk, Johannes; Yergeau, Etienne

    2009-01-01

     °38'W) and the Falkland Islands (51 °76'S 59 °03'W). At each location, experimental plots were subjected to warming by open top chambers (OTCs) and paired with control plots on vegetated and fell-field habitats. The bacterial communities were adapted to the mean annual temperature of their environment...

  11. Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Liu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30–40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ, which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference

  12. Temperature Characteristics of Porous Portland Cement Concrete during the Hot Summer Session

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liqun Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Pavement heats the near-surface air and affects the thermal comfort of the human body in hot summer. Because of a large amount of connected porosity of porous Portland cement concrete (PPCC, the thermal parameters of PPCC are much different from those of traditional Portland cement concrete (PCC. The temperature change characteristics of PPCC and the effects on surrounding environment are also different. A continuous 48-hour log of temperature of a PCC and five kinds of PPCC with different porosity were recorded in the open air in the hot summer. The air temperatures at different heights above concrete specimens were tested using self-made enclosed boxes to analyze the characteristics of near-surface air temperature. The output heat flux of different concrete specimens was calculated. The results show that the PPCC has higher temperature in the daytime and lower temperature in the nighttime and larger temperature gradient than the PCC. The air temperature above PPCC is lower than that of PCC after solar radiation going to zero at night. The total output heat flux of PPCC is slightly smaller in the daytime and significantly smaller at night than that of PCC. The results of tests and calculations indicate that PPCC contributes to the mitigation of heating effect of pavement on the near-surface air.

  13. Incorporating residual temperature and specific humidity in predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg

    2017-02-01

    Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.

  14. The warming trend of ground surface temperature in the Choshui Alluvial Fan, western central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W.; Chang, M.; Chen, J.; Lu, W.; Huang, C. C.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Heat storage in subsurface of the continents forms a fundamental component of the global energy budget and plays an important role in the climate system. Several researches revealed that subsurface temperatures were being increased to 1.8-2.8°C higher in mean ground surface temperature (GST) for some Asian cities where are experiencing a rapid growth of population. Taiwan is a subtropic-tropic island with densely populated in the coastal plains surrounding its mountains. We investigate the subsurface temperature distribution and the borehole temperature-depth profiles by using groundwater monitoring wells in years 2000 and 2010. Our data show that the western central Taiwan plain also has been experiencing a warming trend but with a higher temperatures approximately 3-4 °C of GST during the last 250 yrs. We suggest that the warming were mostly due to the land change to urbanization and agriculture. The current GSTs from our wells are approximately 25.51-26.79 °C which are higher than the current surface air temperature (SAT) of 23.65 °C. Data from Taiwan's weather stations also show 1-1.5 °C higher for the GST than the SAT at neighboring stations. The earth surface heat balance data indicate that GST higher than SAT is reasonable. More researches are needed to evaluate the interaction of GST and SAT, and how a warming GST's impact to the SAT and the climate system of the Earth.

  15. Discharge, water temperature, and water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, Sarasota County, Florida: A retrospective analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metz, Patricia A.

    2016-09-27

    in inland areas, and upward flow toward the surface in coastal areas, such as at Warm Mineral Springs. Warm Mineral Springs is located in a discharge area. Changes in water use in the region have affected the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer. Historical increase in groundwater withdrawals resulted in a 10- to 20-foot regional decline in the potentiometric surface of the Upper Floridan aquifer by May 1975 relative to predevelopment levels and remained at approximately that level in May 2007 in the area of Warm Mineral Springs. Discharge measurements at Warm Mineral Springs (1942–2014) decreased from about 11–12 cubic feet per second in the 1940s to about 6–9 cubic feet per second in the 1970s and remained at about that level for the remainder of the period of record. Similarity of changes in regional water use and discharge at Warm Mineral Springs indicates that basin-scale changes to the groundwater system have affected discharge at Warm Mineral Springs. Water temperature had no significant trend in temperature over the period of record, 1943–2015, and outliers were identified in the data that might indicate inconsistencies in measurement methods or locations.Within the regional groundwater basin, Warm Mineral Springs is influenced by deep Upper Floridan aquifer flow paths that discharge toward the coast. Associated with these flow paths, the groundwater temperatures increase with depth and toward the coast. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that a source of warm groundwater to Warm Mineral Springs is likely the permeable zone of the Avon Park Formation within the Upper Floridan aquifer at a depth of about 1,400 to 1,600 feet, or deeper sources. The permeable zone contains saline groundwater with water temperatures of at least 95 degrees Fahrenheit.The water quality of Warm Mineral Springs, when compared with other springs in Florida had the highest temperature and the greatest mineralized content. Warm Mineral Springs water is

  16. Does the recent warming hiatus exist over northern Asia for winter wind chill temperature?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ying

    2017-04-01

    Wind chill temperature (WCT) describes the joint effect of wind velocity and air temperature on exposed body skin and could support policy makers in designing plans to reduce the risks of notably cold and windy weather. This study examined winter WCT over northern Asia during 1973-2013 by analyzing in situ station data. The winter WCT warming rate over the Tibetan Plateau slowed during 1999-2013 (-0.04 °C/decade) compared with that during 1973-1998 (0.67 °C/decade). The winter WCT warming hiatus has also been observed in the remainder of Northern Asia with trends of 1.11 °C/decade during 1973-1998 but -1.02 °C/decade during 1999-2013, except for the Far East of Russia (FE), where the winter WCT has continued to heat up during both the earlier period of 1973-1998 (0.54 °C/decade) and the recent period of 1999-2013 (0.75 °C/decade). The results indicate that the influence of temperature on winter WCT is greater than that of wind speed over northern Asia. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with air temperature and wind speed were analyzed to identify the causes for the warming hiatus of winter WCT over northern Asia. The distributions of sea level pressure and 500 hPa height anomalies during 1999-2013 transported cold air from the high latitudes to middle latitudes, resulting in low air temperature over Northern Asia except for the Far East of Russia. Over the Tibetan Plateau, the increase in wind speed offset the increase in air temperature during 1999-2013. For the Far East, the southerly wind from the Western Pacific drove the temperature up during the 1999-2013 period via warm advection.

  17. Post-warm-up muscle temperature maintenance: blood flow contribution and external heating optimisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raccuglia, Margherita; Lloyd, Alex; Filingeri, Davide; Faulkner, Steve H; Hodder, Simon; Havenith, George

    2016-02-01

    Passive muscle heating has been shown to reduce the drop in post-warm-up muscle temperature (Tm) by about 25% over 30 min, with concomitant sprint/power performance improvements. We sought to determine the role of leg blood flow in this cooling and whether optimising the heating procedure would further benefit post-warm-up T m maintenance. Ten male cyclists completed 15-min sprint-based warm-up followed by 30 min recovery. Vastus lateralis Tm (Tmvl) was measured at deep-, mid- and superficial-depths before and after the warm-up, and after the recovery period (POST-REC). During the recovery period, participants wore water-perfused trousers heated to 43 °C (WPT43) with either whole leg heating (WHOLE) or upper leg heating (UPPER), which was compared to heating with electrically heated trousers at 40 °C (ELEC40) and a non-heated control (CON). The blood flow cooling effect on Tmvl was studied comparing one leg with (BF) and without (NBF) blood flow. Warm-up exercise significantly increased Tmvl by ~3 °C at all depths. After the recovery period, BF Tmvl was lower (~0.3 °C) than NBF Tmvl at all measured depths, with no difference between WHOLE versus UPPER. WPT43 reduced the post-warm-up drop in deep-Tmvl (-0.12 °C ± 0.3 °C) compared to ELEC40 (-1.08 ± 0.4 °C) and CON (-1.3 ± 0.3 °C), whereas mid- and superficial-Tmvl even increased by 0.15 ± 0.3 and 1.1 ± 1.1 °C, respectively. Thigh blood flow contributes to the post-warm-up Tmvl decline. Optimising the external heating procedure and increasing heating temperature of only 3 °C successfully maintained and even increased T mvl, demonstrating that heating temperature is the major determinant of post-warm-up Tmvl cooling in this application.

  18. Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adam-Poupart, Ariane; Smargiassi, Audrey; Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice; Fournier, Michel; Zayed, Joseph; Labrèche, France

    2014-01-01

    Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

  19. Summer outdoor temperature and occupational heat-related illnesses in Quebec (Canada)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adam-Poupart, Ariane [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Smargiassi, Audrey [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut national de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ), Montreal, QC (Canada); Busque, Marc-Antoine; Duguay, Patrice [Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Fournier, Michel [Direction de santé publique, Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Zayed, Joseph [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada); Labrèche, France, E-mail: labreche.france@irsst.qc.ca [Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, School of Public Health, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC (Canada); Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST), Montreal, QC (Canada)

    2014-10-15

    Background: Predicted rise in global mean temperature and intensification of heat waves associated with climate change present an increasing challenge for occupational health and safety. Although important scientific knowledge has been gathered on the health effects of heat, very few studies have focused on quantifying the association between outdoor heat and mortality or morbidity among workers. Objective: To quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer outdoor temperatures. Methods: We modeled 259 heat-related illnesses compensated by the Workers' Compensation Board of Quebec between May and September, from 1998 to 2010, with maximum daily summer outdoor temperatures in 16 health regions of Quebec (Canada) using generalized linear models with negative binomial distributions, and estimated the pooled effect sizes for all regions combined, by sex and age groups, and for different time lags with random-effect models for meta-analyses. Results: The mean daily compensation count was 0.13 for all regions of Quebec combined. The relationship between daily counts of compensations and maximum daily temperatures was log-linear; the pooled incidence rate ratio (IRR) of daily heat-related compensations per 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperatures was 1.419 (95% CI 1.326 to 1.520). Associations were similar for men and women and by age groups. Increases in daily maximum temperatures at lags 1 and 2 and for two and three-day lag averages were also associated with increases in daily counts of compensations (IRRs of 1.206 to 1.471 for every 1 °C increase in temperature). Conclusion: This study is the first to quantify the association between occupational heat-related illnesses and exposure to summer temperatures in Canada. The model (risk function) developed in this study could be useful to improve the assessment of future impacts of predicted summer outdoor temperatures on workers and vulnerable groups, particularly in

  20. Near-surface temperature inversion during summer at Summit, Greenland, and its relation to MODIS-derived surface temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adolph, Alden C.; Albert, Mary R.; Hall, Dorothy K.

    2018-03-01

    As rapid warming of the Arctic occurs, it is imperative that climate indicators such as temperature be monitored over large areas to understand and predict the effects of climate changes. Temperatures are traditionally tracked using in situ 2 m air temperatures and can also be assessed using remote sensing techniques. Remote sensing is especially valuable over the Greenland Ice Sheet, where few ground-based air temperature measurements exist. Because of the presence of surface-based temperature inversions in ice-covered areas, differences between 2 m air temperature and the temperature of the actual snow surface (referred to as skin temperature) can be significant and are particularly relevant when considering validation and application of remote sensing temperature data. We present results from a field campaign extending from 8 June to 18 July 2015, near Summit Station in Greenland, to study surface temperature using the following measurements: skin temperature measured by an infrared (IR) sensor, 2 m air temperature measured by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorological station, and a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface temperature product. Our data indicate that 2 m air temperature is often significantly higher than snow skin temperature measured in situ, and this finding may account for apparent biases in previous studies of MODIS products that used 2 m air temperature for validation. This inversion is present during our study period when incoming solar radiation and wind speed are both low. As compared to our in situ IR skin temperature measurements, after additional cloud masking, the MOD/MYD11 Collection 6 surface temperature standard product has an RMSE of 1.0 °C and a mean bias of -0.4 °C, spanning a range of temperatures from -35 to -5 °C (RMSE = 1.6 °C and mean bias = -0.7 °C prior to cloud masking). For our study area and time series, MODIS surface temperature products agree with skin surface

  1. Estimating survival rates of quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis veliger larvae under summer and autumn temperature regimes in residual water of trailered watercraft at Lake Mead, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wook Jin Choi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available On 6 January 2007, invasive quagga mussels [Dreissena rostriformis bugensis (Andrusov, 1897] were discovered in the Boulder Basin ofLake Mead, Nevada, a popular site for recreational boating in the southwestern United States. Recreational watercraft are considered aprimary vector for overland dispersal of quagga mussel veliger larvae between water bodies. Thus, effective decontamination of veligers inresidual water carried by trailered recreation boats is critical to controlling this species’ spread. The survival rate of quagga mussel veligerswas measured during exposure to environmental temperature conditions mimicking those experienced in the residual water of traileredvessels during warm summer and cooler autumn months in the semi-arid southwestern United States. Under warm summer conditions,quagga mussel veligers survived approximately five days while under cooler autumn conditions they survived 27 days. When tested underautumn temperature conditions veliger survival times increased with increased level of larval development. The results suggested a greaterlikelihood of veliger transport in the residual water of trailered watercraft during autumn months. The results indicated that presentlyrecommended vessel quarantine times to kill all externally attached juvenile and adult dreissenid mussels prior to launching in an uninfested water body should be increased to generate 100% veliger mortality in residual water unable to be fully drained from the internal areas of watercraft.

  2. Temperature dependence of mode conversion in warm, unmagnetized plasmas with a linear density profile

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Dae Jung; Lee, Dong-Hun [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kihong [Division of Energy Systems Research, Ajou University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-06-15

    We study theoretically the linear mode conversion between electromagnetic waves and Langmuir waves in warm, stratified, and unmagnetized plasmas, using a numerically precise calculation based on the invariant imbedding method. We verify that the principle of reciprocity for the forward and backward mode conversion coefficients holds precisely regardless of temperature. We also find that the temperature dependence of the mode conversion coefficient is substantially stronger than that previously reported. Depending on the wave frequency and the incident angle, the mode conversion coefficient is found to increase or decrease with the increase of temperature.

  3. High autumn temperature delays spring bud burst in boreal trees, counterbalancing the effect of climatic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heide, O. M. [Agricultural Univesity of Norway, Department of Biology and Nature Conservation, As (Norway)

    2003-09-01

    The effect of temperature during short-day dormancy induction on the duration and stability of bud dormancy was examined in three boreal tree species (2 birches and 1 alder) grown in a controlled environment. The phenology of the latitudinal range of birch populations, and the relationship between spring bud burst and autumn and spring temperatures were also studied. Results showed that during short-day dormancy induction in the autumn high temperatures delayed bud burst in the following spring in both controlled and natural environments. It is suggested that this response to higher autumn temperatures may be a manifestation of a general synergism between high temperature and short-day photoperiodic processes, and may be an adaptive mechanism common to boreal trees. It is further conjectured that this mechanism may be important in counterbalancing the potentially adverse effects of higher winter temperatures on dormancy stability of boreal trees during climate warming. 23 refs., 2 tabs., 4 figs.

  4. Impact of cool versus warm temperatures on gestation in the aspic viper (Vipera aspis).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Catherine Louise; Pastore, Jean-Henri; Bonnet, Xavier

    2013-07-01

    Previous experimental data suggested that digestion and growth rates are not impaired under cool constant temperature (23°C) in a viviparous snake (Vipera aspis). These results challenged the widespread notion that both elevated temperatures (e.g. 30°C) and temperature fluctuations are required for digestion and growth in temperate climate reptiles. Here, we investigated the impact of constant cool temperatures on another physiological performance that is crucial to population persistence: gestation. At the time when reproductive females were midway through vitellogenesis, we placed ten reproductive and two non-reproductive female aspic vipers at each of two contrasted constant temperature conditions: cool (23°C) versus warm (28°C). Sixty percent of the females placed at 28°C gave birth to healthy offspring, suggesting that constant warm body temperatures were compatible with normal offspring production. Conversely, none of the cool females gave birth to healthy offspring. A blister disease affected exclusively cool pregnant females. Apparently, the combination of cool temperatures plus gestation was too challenging for such females. Our results suggest that reproduction is more thermally sensitive than digestion or growth, indeed gestation faltered under moderately cool thermal constraints. This sensitivity could be a crucial factor determining the capacity of this species to colonize different habitats. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Projecting future summer mortality due to ambient ozone concentration and temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Lee, Soo Hyun; Hong, Sung-Chul; Kim, Ho

    2017-05-01

    Climate change is known to affect the human health both directly by increased heat stress and indirectly by altering environments, particularly by altering the rate of ambient ozone formation in the atmosphere. Thus, the risks of climate change may be underestimated if the effects of both future temperature and ambient ozone concentrations are not considered. This study presents a projection of future summer non-accidental mortality in seven major cities of South Korea during the 2020s (2016-2025) and 2050s (2046-2055) considering changes in temperature and ozone concentration, which were predicted by using the HadGEM3-RA model and Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System, respectively. Four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) were considered. The result shows that non-accidental summer mortality will increase by 0.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, and 0.4% in the 2020s, 1.9%, 1.5%, 1.2%, and 4.4% in the 2050s due to temperature change compared to the baseline mortality during 2001-2010, under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the mortality will increase by 0.0%, 0.5%, 0.0%, and 0.5% in the 2020s, and 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.4%, and 0.6% in the 2050s due to ozone concentration change. The projection result shows that the future summer morality in South Korea is increased due to changes in both temperature and ozone, and the magnitude of ozone-related increase is much smaller than that of temperature-related increase, especially in the 2050s.

  6. Perception of foot temperature in young women with cold constitution: analysis of skin temperature and warm and cold sensation thresholds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadakata, Mieko; Yamada, Yoshiaki

    2007-06-01

    To examine the disease state of cold constitution, physiological measurements of the foot were conducted by investigating thermal sensations under an environmental condition of 25 degrees C-26 degrees C (neutral temperature) in 29 young women with and without cold constitution. The subjects were classified into 3 groups according to their experiences with cold constitution: cold constitution, intermediate, and normal groups. Foot skin temperature was measured by thermography. Thermal sensations were measured on the dorsum of the left foot using a thermal stimulator. Cold and warm spots on the dorsum of the right foot were ascertained. Thermal stimulation was delivered by a copper probe. No significant differences in foot skin temperature among these 3 groups were identified as measured in a laboratory under neutral temperature conditions. However, the mean warm sensation threshold was +6.3+/-1.09 degrees C (mean+/-SEM) for the cold constitution group (n=14), +3.4+/-2.10 degrees C (mean+/-SEM) for the intermediate group (n=7), and -0.25+/-1.96 degrees C (mean+/-SEM) for the normal group (n=6). The difference was significant between the cold constitution and normal groups. No significant differences among the 3 groups were found in the cold sensation threshold. This may be attributable to the distribution of thermal receptors and to chronically reduced blood flow in subcutaneous tissues, where the skin temperature receptors responsible for temperature sensation are located.

  7. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; Hauser, Mathias; Guillod, Benoit P.; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Whan, Kirien; Uhe, Peter; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van

    2018-04-01

    The Western US states Washington (WA), Oregon (OR) and California (CA) experienced extremely high temperatures in June 2015. The temperature anomalies were so extreme that they cannot be explained with global warming alone. We investigate the hypothesis that soil moisture played an important role as well. We use a land surface model and a large ensemble from the weather@home modelling effort to investigate the coupling between soil moisture and temperature in a warming world. Both models show that May was anomalously dry, satisfying a prerequisite for the extreme heat wave, and they indicate that WA and OR are in a wet-to-dry transitional soil moisture regime. We use two different land surface-atmosphere coupling metrics to show that there was strong coupling between temperature, latent heat flux and the effect of soil moisture deficits on the energy balance in June 2015 in WA and OR. June temperature anomalies conditioned on wet/dry conditions show that both the mean and extreme temperatures become hotter for dry soils, especially in WA and OR. Fitting a Gaussian model to temperatures using soil moisture as a covariate shows that the June 2015 temperature values fit well in the extrapolated empirical temperature/drought lines. The high temperature anomalies in WA and OR are thus to be expected, given the dry soil moisture conditions and that those regions are in the transition from a wet to a dry regime. CA is already in the dry regime and therefore the necessity of taking soil moisture into account is of lower importance.

  8. First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

    2010-09-01

    Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10-15 K at altitudes 70-80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60-70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50-70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED-SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.

  9. Meta-analysis of warmed versus standard temperature CO2 insufflation for laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakeem, Abdul R; Birks, Theodore; Azeem, Qasim; Di Franco, Filippo; Gergely, Szabolcs; Harris, Adrian M

    2016-06-01

    There is conflicting evidence for the use of warmed, humidified carbon dioxide (CO2) for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Few studies have reported less post-operative pain and analgesic requirement when warmed CO2 was used. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to analyse the literature on the use of warmed CO2 in comparison to standard temperature CO2 during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Systematic review and meta-analysis carried out in line with the PRISMA guidelines. Primary outcomes of interest were post-operative pain at 6 h, day 1 and day 2 following laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Secondary outcomes were analgesic usage and drop in intra-operative core body temperature. Standard Mean Difference (SMD) was calculated for continuous variables. Six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion criteria (n = 369). There was no significant difference in post-operative pain at 6 h [3 RCTs; SMD = -0.66 (-1.33, 0.02) (Z = 1.89) (P = 0.06)], day 1 [4 RCTs; SMD = -0.51 (-1.47, 0.44) (Z = 1.05) (P = 0.29)] and day 2 [2 RCTs; SMD = -0.96 (-2.30, 0.37) (Z = 1.42) (P = 0.16)] between the warmed CO2 and standard CO2 group. There was no difference in analgesic usage between the two groups, but pooled analysis was not possible. Two RCTs reported significant drop in intra-operative core body temperature, but there were no adverse events related to this. This review showed no difference in post-operative pain and analgesic requirements between the warmed and standard CO2 insufflation during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Currently there is not enough high quality evidence to suggest routine usage of warmed CO2 for creating pneumoperitoneum during laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Copyright © 2015 Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh (Scottish charity number SC005317) and Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Improved Seasonal Prediction of European Summer Temperatures With New Five-Layer Soil-Hydrology Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunzel, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Fröhlich, Kristina; Hagemann, Stefan; Pohlmann, Holger; Stacke, Tobias; Baehr, Johanna

    2018-01-01

    We evaluate the impact of a new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2 m temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the five-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe.

  11. Distribution of Polycystine Radiolarians in Bottom Surface Sediments and Its Relation to Summer Sea Temperature in the High-Latitude North Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Matul

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An objective of the study is to get new biogeographic information on the modern polycystine radiolarians from the high-latitude North Atlantic. The quantitative radiolarian dataset was compiled from publications and own micropaleontological counts from samples of the bottom surface sediments of the North Atlantic north of 40°N and Nordic Seas. Standard statistical treatment of micropaleontological data by factor analysis reveals five radiolarian assemblages which have their highest load at the specific temperature range in agreement with the oceanographic setting. An occurrence of radiolarian assemblages reflects extension and interaction of the warm North Atlantic and cold Polar/Arctic waters. Radiolarian distribution exhibits good correlation with the climatically averaged summer sea temperature on depth level of 200 m.

  12. Oral temperatures of the elderly in nursing homes in summer and winter in relation to activities of daily living

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, K.; Tanaka, Masatoshi; Motohashi, Yutaka; Maeda, Akira

    This study was conducted to clarify the seasonal difference in body temperature in summer and winter, and to document the thermal environment of the elderly living in nursing homes. The subjects were 57 healthy elderly people aged >=63 years living in two nursing homes in Japan. One of the homes was characterized by subjects with low levels of activities of daily living (ADL). Oral temperatures were measured in the morning and afternoon, with simultaneous recording of ambient temperature and relative humidity. Oral temperatures in summer were higher than in winter, with statistically significant differences (Pchanges in ambient temperature.

  13. Monoterpene emissions in response to long-term night-time warming, elevated CO2 and extended summer drought in a temperate heath ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tiiva, Päivi; Tang, Jing; Michelsen, Anders

    2017-01-01

    Monoterpenes emitted from plants have an important role in atmospheric chemistry through changing atmospheric oxidative capacity, forming new particles and secondary organic aerosols. The emission rates and patterns can be affected by changing climate. In this study, emission responses to six years...... of climatic manipulations (elevated CO2, extended summer drought and night-time warming) were investigated in a temperate semi-natural heath ecosystem. Samples for monoterpene analysis were collected in seven campaigns during an entire growing season (April-November, 2011). The results showed...... that the temperate heath ecosystem was a considerable source of monoterpenes to the atmosphere, with the emission averaged over the 8month measurement period of 21.7±6.8μgm(-2)groundareah(-1) for the untreated heath. Altogether, 16 monoterpenes were detected, of which the most abundant were α-pinene, δ-3-carene...

  14. Non-linear trends and fluctuations in temperature during different growth stages of summer maize in the North China Plain from 1960 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cailin; Wu, Jidong; Wang, Xu; He, Xin; Li, Ning

    2017-12-01

    North China Plain has undergone severe warming trends since the 1950s, but whether this trend is the same during different growth phases for crops remains unknown. Thus, we analyzed the non-linear changes in the minimum temperature (T min ), mean temperature (T mean ) and maximum temperature (T max ) using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method during each growth stage of summer maize based on daily temperature data from 1960 to 2014. Our results strongly suggest that the trends and fluctuations in temperature change are non-linear. These changes can be categorized into four types of trend change according to the combinations of decreasing and increasing trends, and 8 fluctuation modes dominated by the fluctuations of expansion and shrinkage. The amplitude of the fluctuation is primarily expansion in the sowing-jointing stage and shrinkage in the jointing-maturity stage. Moreover, the temperature changes are inconsistent within each growth stage and are not consistent with the overall warming trend observed over the last 55 years. A transition period occurred in both the 1980s and the 1990s for temperatures during the sowing-tasseling stage. Furthermore, the cooling trend of the T max was significant in the sowing-emergence stage, while this cooling trend was not obvious for both T mean and T min in the jointing-tasseling stage. These results showed that temperature change was significantly different in different stages of the maize growth season. The results can serve as a scientific basis for a better understanding of the actual changes in the regional surface air temperature and agronomic heat resources.

  15. Summer Season Water Temperature Modeling under the Climate Change: Case Study for Fourchue River, Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is accepted that human-induced climate change is unavoidable and it will have effects on physical, chemical, and biological properties of aquatic habitats. This will be especially important for cold water fishes such as trout. The objective of this study is to simulate water temperature for future periods under the climate change situations. Future water temperature in the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, QC, Canada were simulated by the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model, using meteorological inputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The result of the study indicated that water temperature in June will increase 0.2–0.7 °C and that in September, median water temperature could decrease by 0.2–1.1 °C. The rise in summer water temperature may be favorable to brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis growth, but several days over the Upper Incipient Lethal Temperature (UILT are also likely to occur. Therefore, flow regulation procedures, including cold water releases from the Morin dam may have to be considered for the Fourchue River.

  16. Summer temperature metrics for predicting brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution in streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Donna; Butryn, Ryan S.; Rizzo, Donna M.

    2012-01-01

    We developed a methodology to predict brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution using summer temperature metrics as predictor variables. Our analysis used long-term fish and hourly water temperature data from the Dog River, Vermont (USA). Commonly used metrics (e.g., mean, maximum, maximum 7-day maximum) tend to smooth the data so information on temperature variation is lost. Therefore, we developed a new set of metrics (called event metrics) to capture temperature variation by describing the frequency, area, duration, and magnitude of events that exceeded a user-defined temperature threshold. We used 16, 18, 20, and 22°C. We built linear discriminant models and tested and compared the event metrics against the commonly used metrics. Correct classification of the observations was 66% with event metrics and 87% with commonly used metrics. However, combined event and commonly used metrics correctly classified 92%. Of the four individual temperature thresholds, it was difficult to assess which threshold had the “best” accuracy. The 16°C threshold had slightly fewer misclassifications; however, the 20°C threshold had the fewest extreme misclassifications. Our method leveraged the volumes of existing long-term data and provided a simple, systematic, and adaptable framework for monitoring changes in fish distribution, specifically in the case of irregular, extreme temperature events.

  17. Spurious Additional Warming Reconstructed From Borehole Temperatures Corrected for the Effect of the Last Glacial Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šafanda, Jan

    2018-03-01

    Reconstructions of past ground surface temperature changes from temperature logs conducted in several hundred meter deep boreholes have proved to be a valuable independent source of information on climate variations over the last millennium. The reconstruction techniques have been evolving for more than two decades to extract optimally the climate signal of the last millennium contained in the temperature logs of different length performed in sites with different histories of the Last Glacial Cycle. This paper analyzes the method of the Last Glacial Cycle thermal effect removal from such borehole temperature profiles used by Beltrami et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071317) in reconstructing the last 500 year history. I show that the reported results of additional warming in this period reconstructed from the corrected borehole data for North America are an artifact generated by the correction.

  18. Effect of summer heat environment on body temperature, estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakatani, Miki; Balboula, Ahmed Z; Yamanaka, Kenichi; Takahashi, Masashi

    2012-05-01

    This study investigated the effect of summer heat environment on estrous cycles and blood antioxidant levels in Japanese Black cows. A total of 13 non-lactating Japanese Black cows (summer: 9, winter: 4) were examined. Body temperature was measured rectally and intravaginally using a thermometer and data logger, respectively. Estrous behavior was monitored using a radiotelemetric pedometer that recorded walking activity. Rectal temperatures were higher during summer than winter (Pstress, and also reduces signs of estrus in Japanese Black cows. © 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  19. Impact of Environmental Changes and Global Warming on Temperature in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishtiaq Hassan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental changes and global warming have direct impact on human life. Estimation of these changes in various parameters of hydrologic cycle is necessary for future planning and development of a country. In this paper the impact of environmental changes and global warming on temperatures of Pakistan has been studied. The temperature changes in Pakistan have been extracted from simulations made using EdGCM model developed at Columbia University. Simulation study to the end of 21st century is executed using the model for GHG (Greenhouse Gases scenario with doubled_CO2 and scenario of Modern_Predicted SST (Sea Surface Temperature. The model analysis has been carried out for seasonal and annual changes for an average of last 5 years period from 2096-2100. Maps are generated to depict global temperature variations. The study divides Pakistan into five (05 main areas for twenty six (26 stations. A part-plan of globe focusing Pakistan is generated showing the five divisions for twenty six (26 data stations of Pakistan. This part plan is made compatible with grid-box resolution of EdGCM. Eagle-Point Engineering software has been used to generate isohyets of interval (0.5oC for downscaling GCM (Global Climate Model grid data to data stations. The station values of different seasons and annual changes are then compared with the values of base period data to determine changes in temperature. It is observed that impact of global environmental changes on temperature are higher (i.e. there is an increase in annual temperature for double_CO2 experiment at places near the Arabian Sea than areas located away from this sea. It is also observed that the temperature increase will be more in winter than that in other seasons for Pakistan.

  20. Near-surface temperature inversion during summer at Summit, Greenland, and its relation to MODIS-derived surface temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. C. Adolph

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As rapid warming of the Arctic occurs, it is imperative that climate indicators such as temperature be monitored over large areas to understand and predict the effects of climate changes. Temperatures are traditionally tracked using in situ 2 m air temperatures and can also be assessed using remote sensing techniques. Remote sensing is especially valuable over the Greenland Ice Sheet, where few ground-based air temperature measurements exist. Because of the presence of surface-based temperature inversions in ice-covered areas, differences between 2 m air temperature and the temperature of the actual snow surface (referred to as skin temperature can be significant and are particularly relevant when considering validation and application of remote sensing temperature data. We present results from a field campaign extending from 8 June to 18 July 2015, near Summit Station in Greenland, to study surface temperature using the following measurements: skin temperature measured by an infrared (IR sensor, 2 m air temperature measured by a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA meteorological station, and a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS surface temperature product. Our data indicate that 2 m air temperature is often significantly higher than snow skin temperature measured in situ, and this finding may account for apparent biases in previous studies of MODIS products that used 2 m air temperature for validation. This inversion is present during our study period when incoming solar radiation and wind speed are both low. As compared to our in situ IR skin temperature measurements, after additional cloud masking, the MOD/MYD11 Collection 6 surface temperature standard product has an RMSE of 1.0 °C and a mean bias of −0.4 °C, spanning a range of temperatures from −35 to −5 °C (RMSE  =  1.6 °C and mean bias  =  −0.7 °C prior to cloud masking. For our study area and time series

  1. Warm temperature acclimation impacts metabolism of paralytic shellfish toxins from Alexandrium minutum in commercial oysters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Hazel; Seebacher, Frank; O'Connor, Wayne; Zammit, Anthony; Harwood, D Tim; Murray, Shauna

    2015-09-01

    Species of Alexandrium produce potent neurotoxins termed paralytic shellfish toxins and are expanding their ranges worldwide, concurrent with increases in sea surface temperature. The metabolism of molluscs is temperature dependent, and increases in ocean temperature may influence both the abundance and distribution of Alexandrium and the dynamics of toxin uptake and depuration in shellfish. Here, we conducted a large-scale study of the effect of temperature on the uptake and depuration of paralytic shellfish toxins in three commercial oysters (Saccostrea glomerata and diploid and triploid Crassostrea gigas, n = 252 per species/ploidy level). Oysters were acclimated to two constant temperatures, reflecting current and predicted climate scenarios (22 and 27 °C), and fed a diet including the paralytic shellfish toxin-producing species Alexandrium minutum. While the oysters fed on A. minutum in similar quantities, concentrations of the toxin analogue GTX1,4 were significantly lower in warm-acclimated S. glomerata and diploid C. gigas after 12 days. Following exposure to A. minutum, toxicity of triploid C. gigas was not affected by temperature. Generally, detoxification rates were reduced in warm-acclimated oysters. The routine metabolism of the oysters was not affected by the toxins, but a significant effect was found at a cellular level in diploid C. gigas. The increasing incidences of Alexandrium blooms worldwide are a challenge for shellfish food safety regulation. Our findings indicate that rising ocean temperatures may reduce paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in two of the three oyster types; however, they may persist for longer periods in oyster tissue. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-01-01

    We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

  3. Impact of postglacial warming on borehole reconstructions of last millennium temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Rath

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The investigation of observed borehole temperatures has proved to be a valuable tool for the reconstruction of ground surface temperature histories. However, there are still many open questions concerning the significance and accuracy of the reconstructions from these data. In particular, the temperature signal of the warming after the Last Glacial Maximum is still present in borehole temperature profiles. It is shown here that this signal also influences the relatively shallow boreholes used in current paleoclimate inversions to estimate temperature changes in the last centuries by producing errors in the determination of the steady state geothermal gradient. However, the impact on estimates of past temperature changes is weaker. For deeper boreholes, the curvature of the long-term signal is significant. A correction based on simple assumptions about glacial–interglacial temperature changes shows promising results, improving the extraction of millennial scale signals. The same procedure may help when comparing observed borehole temperature profiles with the results from numerical climate models.

  4. Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

    2018-03-01

    A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

  5. What to eat in a warming world: do increased temperatures necessitate hazardous duty pay?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, L. Embere; Chalfoun, Anna D.

    2018-01-01

    Contemporary climate change affects nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions and resource availability. Changes in resource selection may allow individuals to offset climatic stress, thereby providing a mechanism for persistence amidst warming conditions. Whereas the role of predation risk in food choice has been studied broadly, the extent to which individuals respond to thermoregulatory risk by changing resource preferences is unclear. We addressed whether individuals compensated for temperature-related reductions in foraging time by altering forage preferences, using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a model species. We tested two hypotheses: (1) food-quality hypothesis—individuals exposed to temperature extremes should select higher-quality vegetation in return for accepting a physiologically riskier feeding situation; and (2) food-availability hypothesis—individuals exposed to temperature extremes should prioritize foraging quickly, thereby decreasing selection for higher-quality food. We quantified the composition and quality (% moisture, % nitrogen, and fiber content) of available and harvested vegetation, and deployed a network of temperature sensors to measure in situ conditions for 30 individuals, during July–Sept., 2015. Individuals exposed to more extreme daytime temperatures showed increased selection for high-nitrogen and for low-fiber vegetation, demonstrating strong support for the food-quality hypothesis. By contrast, pikas that experienced warmer conditions did not reduce selection for any of the three vegetation-quality metrics, as predicted by the food-availability hypothesis. By shifting resource-selection patterns, temperature-limited animals may be able to proximately buffer some of the negative effects associated with rapidly warming environments, provided that sufficient resources remain on the landscape.

  6. Calculation of probability density functions for temperature and precipitation change under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watterson, Ian G.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: he IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Meehl ef al. 2007) presents multi-model means of the CMIP3 simulations as projections of the global climate change over the 21st century under several SRES emission scenarios. To assess the possible range of change for Australia based on the CMIP3 ensemble, we can follow Whetton etal. (2005) and use the 'pattern scaling' approach, which separates the uncertainty in the global mean warming from that in the local change per degree of warming. This study presents several ways of representing these two factors as probability density functions (PDFs). The beta distribution, a smooth, bounded, function allowing skewness, is found to provide a useful representation of the range of CMIP3 results. A weighting of models based on their skill in simulating seasonal means in the present climate over Australia is included. Dessai ef al. (2005) and others have used Monte-Carlo sampling to recombine such global warming and scaled change factors into values of net change. Here, we use a direct integration of the product across the joint probability space defined by the two PDFs. The result is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for change, for each variable, location, and season. The median of this distribution provides a best estimate of change, while the 10th and 90th percentiles represent a likely range. The probability of exceeding a specified threshold can also be extracted from the CDF. The presentation focuses on changes in Australian temperature and precipitation at 2070 under the A1B scenario. However, the assumption of linearity behind pattern scaling allows results for different scenarios and times to be simply obtained. In the case of precipitation, which must remain non-negative, a simple modification of the calculations (based on decreases being exponential with warming) is used to avoid unrealistic results. These approaches are currently being used for the new CSIRO/ Bureau of Meteorology climate projections

  7. Relationships between declining summer sea ice, increasing temperatures and changing vegetation in the Siberian Arctic tundra from MODIS time series (2000–11)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutrieux, L P; Bartholomeus, H; Herold, M; Verbesselt, J

    2012-01-01

    The concern about Arctic greening has grown recently as the phenomenon is thought to have significant influence on global climate via atmospheric carbon emissions. Earlier work on Arctic vegetation highlighted the role of summer sea ice decline in the enhanced warming and greening phenomena observed in the region, but did not contain enough details for spatially characterizing the interactions between sea ice, temperature and vegetation photosynthetic absorption. By using 1 km resolution data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) as a primary data source, this study presents detailed maps of vegetation and temperature trends for the Siberian Arctic region, using the time integrated normalized difference vegetation index (TI-NDVI) and summer warmth index (SWI) calculated for the period 2000–11 to represent vegetation greenness and temperature respectively. Spatio-temporal relationships between the two indices and summer sea ice conditions were investigated with transects at eight locations using sea ice concentration data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). In addition, the derived vegetation and temperature trends were compared among major Arctic vegetation types and bioclimate subzones. The fine resolution trend map produced confirms the overall greening (+1% yr −1 ) and warming (+0.27% yr −1 ) of the region, reported in previous studies, but also reveals browning areas. The causes of such local decreases in vegetation, while surrounding areas are experiencing the opposite reaction to changing conditions, are still unclear. Overall correlations between sea ice concentration and SWI as well as TI-NDVI decreased in strength with increasing distance from the coast, with a particularly pronounced pattern in the case of SWI. SWI appears to be driving TI-NDVI in many cases, but not systematically, highlighting the presence of limiting factors other than temperature for plant growth in the region. Further unravelling those limiting

  8. Hiatus in global warming - example of water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge (Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ducić Vladan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The research included trends in water temperature of the Danube River at Bogojevo gauge and surface air temperature at the nearby meteorological station Sombor, as well as an analysis of the results obtained in relation to the claims of the existence of the hiatus in global air temperature increase in the period 1998-2012. In the period 1961-2013, there was a statistically significant increase in the mean annual water temperature (0.039°C/year, as well as all the average monthly values. However, with annual values for the period 1998-2013, there was a decrease. The longest periods of negative trend (27 years were recorded for January and February. A high correlation was found between the surface air temperature and water temperature for all monthly and seasonal values. In the mean annual air temperature the presence of the hiatus is not observed, but a negative trend is recorded in March (32 years, December (43 years and February (49 years. The highest correlations between water temperature and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO were obtained for the NAO in January (0.60, the AMO in autumn (0.52 and the NAO in winter (0.51. For surface air temperature, the highest correlations were registered for the AMO in summer (0.49 and the NAO in winter (0.42. The results indicate the dominant role of natural factors in the decrease of winter air temperature and water temperature of the Danube. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III47007

  9. The effect of warmed inspired gases on body temperature during arthroscopic shoulder surgery under general anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Youn Yi; Kim, Hong Soon; Chang, Young Jin; Yun, Soon Young; Kwak, Hyun Jeong

    2013-07-01

    Perioperative hypothermia can develop easily during shoulder arthroscopy, because cold irrigation can directly influence core body temperature. The authors investigated whether active warming and humidification of inspired gases reduces falls in core body temperature and allows redistribution of body heat in patients undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery under general anesthesia. Patients scheduled for arthroscopic shoulder surgery were randomly assigned to receive either room temperature inspired gases using a conventional respiratory circuit (the control group, n = 20) or inspired gases humidified and heated using a humidified and electrically heated circuit (HHC) (the heated group, n = 20). Core temperatures were significantly lower in both groups from 30 min after anesthesia induction, but were significantly higher in the heated group than in the control group from 75 to 120 min after anesthesia induction. In this study the use of a humidified and electrically heated circuit did not prevent core temperature falling during arthroscopic shoulder surgery, but it was found to decrease reductions in core temperature from 75 min after anesthesia induction.

  10. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value.

    The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly

  11. Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts and associated synoptic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. García-Herrera

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of extreme summer temperatures on daily mortality in two large cities of Iberia: Lisbon (Portugal and Madrid (Spain. Daily mortality and meteorological variables are analysed using the same methodology based on Box-Jenkins models. Results reveal that in both cases there is a triggering effect on mortality when maximum daily temperature exceeds a given threshold (34°C in Lisbon and 36°C in Madrid. The impact of most intense heat events is very similar for both cities, with significant mortality values occurring up to 3 days after the temperature threshold has been surpassed. This impact is measured as the percentual increase of mortality associated to a 1°C increase above the threshold temperature. In this respect, Lisbon shows a higher impact, 31%, as compared with Madrid at 21%. The difference can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic factors. Furthermore, the longer life span of Iberian women is critical to explain why, in both cities, females are more susceptible than males to heat effects, with an almost double mortality impact value. The analysis of Sea Level Pressure (SLP, 500hPa geopotential height and temperature fields reveals that, despite being relatively close to each other, Lisbon and Madrid have relatively different synoptic circulation anomalies associated with their respective extreme summer temperature days. The SLP field reveals higher anomalies for Lisbon, but extending over a smaller area. Extreme values in Madrid seem to require a more western location of the Azores High, embracing a greater area over Europe, even if it is not as deep as for Lisbon. The origin of the hot and dry air masses that usually lead to extreme heat days in both cities is located in Northern Africa. However, while Madrid maxima require wind blowing directly from the south, transporting heat from Southern Spain and Northern Africa, Lisbon maxima occur under more easterly conditions, when Northern African air

  12. High autumn temperature delays spring bud burst in boreal trees, counterbalancing the effect of climatic warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heide, O M

    2003-09-01

    The effect of temperature during short-day (SD) dormancy induction was examined in three boreal tree species in a controlled environment. Saplings of Betula pendula Roth, B. pubescens Ehrh. and Alnus glutinosa (L.) Moench. were exposed to 5 weeks of 10-h SD induction at 9, 15 and 21 degrees C followed by chilling at 5 degrees C for 40, 70, 100 and 130 days and subsequent forcing at 15 degrees C in a 24-h photoperiod for 60 days. In all species and with all chilling periods, high temperature during SD dormancy induction significantly delayed bud burst during subsequent flushing at 15 degrees C. In A. glutinosa, high temperature during SD dormancy induction also significantly increased the chilling requirement for dormancy release. Field experiments at 60 degrees N with a range of latitudinal birch populations revealed a highly significant correlation between autumn temperature and days to bud burst in the subsequent spring. September temperature alone explained 20% of the variation between years in time of bud burst. In birch populations from 69 and 71 degrees N, which ceased growing and shed their leaves in August when the mean temperature was 15 degrees C, bud burst occurred later than expected compared with lower latitude populations (56 degrees N) in which dormancy induction took place more than 2 months later at a mean temperature of about 6 degrees C. It is concluded that this autumn temperature response may be important for counterbalancing the potentially adverse effects of higher winter temperatures on dormancy stability of boreal trees during climate warming.

  13. Oligocene sea water temperatures offshore Wilkes Land (Antarctica) indicate warm and stable glacial-interglacial variation and show no 'late Oligocene warming'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca

    2017-04-01

    At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.

  14. The impact of temperature changes on summer time ozone and its precursors in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Im

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Changes in temperature due to variability in meteorology and climate change are expected to significantly impact atmospheric composition. The Mediterranean is a climate sensitive region and includes megacities like Istanbul and large urban agglomerations such as Athens. The effect of temperature changes on gaseous air pollutant levels and the atmospheric processes that are controlling them in the Eastern Mediterranean are here investigated. The WRF/CMAQ mesoscale modeling system is used, coupled with the MEGAN model for the processing of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions. A set of temperature perturbations (spanning from 1 to 5 K is applied on a base case simulation corresponding to July 2004. The results indicate that the Eastern Mediterranean basin acts as a reservoir of pollutants and their precursor emissions from large urban agglomerations. During summer, chemistry is a major sink at these urban areas near the surface, and a minor contributor at downwind areas. On average, the atmospheric processes are more effective within the first 1000 m above ground. Temperature increases lead to increases in biogenic emissions by 9±3% K−1. Ozone mixing ratios increase almost linearly with the increases in ambient temperatures by 1±0.1 ppb O3 K−1 for all studied urban and receptor stations except for Istanbul, where a 0.4±0.1 ppb O3 K−1 increase is calculated, which is about half of the domain-averaged increase of 0.9±0.1 ppb O3 K−1. The computed changes in atmospheric processes are also linearly related with temperature changes.

  15. Last millennium Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part II, spatially resolved reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Wilson, Rob; Briffa, Keith R.; Büntgen, Ulf; Cook, Edward R.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Davi, Nicole; Esper, Jan; Frank, David; Gunnarson, Björn E.; Hegerl, Gabi; Helama, Samuli; Klesse, Stefan; Krusic, Paul J.; Linderholm, Hans W.; Myglan, Vladimir; Osborn, Timothy J.; Zhang, Peng; Rydval, Milos; Schneider, Lea; Schurer, Andrew; Wiles, Greg; Zorita, Eduardo

    2017-05-01

    Climate field reconstructions from networks of tree-ring proxy data can be used to characterize regional-scale climate changes, reveal spatial anomaly patterns associated with atmospheric circulation changes, radiative forcing, and large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, and provide spatiotemporal targets for climate model comparison and evaluation. Here we use a multiproxy network of tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct spatially resolved warm season (May-August) mean temperatures across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (40-90°N) using Point-by-Point Regression (PPR). The resulting annual maps of temperature anomalies (750-1988 CE) reveal a consistent imprint of volcanism, with 96% of reconstructed grid points experiencing colder conditions following eruptions. Solar influences are detected at the bicentennial (de Vries) frequency, although at other time scales the influence of insolation variability is weak. Approximately 90% of reconstructed grid points show warmer temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly when compared to the Little Ice Age, although the magnitude varies spatially across the hemisphere. Estimates of field reconstruction skill through time and over space can guide future temporal extension and spatial expansion of the proxy network.

  16. Low flows and water temperature risks to Asian coal power plants in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Byers, E.; Parkinson, S.; Wanders, N.; Wada, Y.; Bielicki, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Thermoelectric power generation requires cooling, normally provided by wet cooling systems. The withdrawal and discharge of cooling water are subject to regulation. Therefore, operation of power plants may be vulnerable to changes in streamflow and rises in water temperatures. In Asia, about 489 GW of coal-fired power plants are currently under construction, permitted, or announced. Using a comprehensive dataset of these planned coal power plants (PCPPs) and cooling water use models, we investigated whether electricity generation at these power plants will be limited by streamflow and water temperature. Daily streamflow and water temperature time series are from the high-resolution (0.08ox0.08o) runs of the PCRGLOBWB hydrological model, driven by downscaled meteorological forcing from five global climate models. We compared three climate change scenarios (1.5oC, 2oC, and 3oC warming in global mean temperature) and three cooling system choice scenarios (freshwater once-through, freshwater cooling tower, and "business-as-usual" - where a PCPP uses the same cooling system as the nearest existing coal power plant). The potential available capacity of the PCPPs increase slightly from the 1.5oC to the 2oC and 3oC warming scenario due to increase in streamflow. The once-through cooling scenario results in virtually zero available capacity at the PCPPs. The other two cooling scenarios result in about 20% of the planned capacity being unavailable under all warming scenarios. Hotspots of the most water-limited PCPPs are in Pakistan, northwestern India, northwestern and north-central China, and northern Vietnam, where most of the PCPPs will face 30% to 90% unavailable nameplate capacity on annual average. Since coal power plants cannot operate effectively when the capacity factor falls below a minimum load level (about 20% to 50%), the actual limitation on generation capacity would be larger. In general, the PCPPs that will have the highest limitation on annual average

  17. Decreases in beetle body size linked to climate change and warming temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Michelle; Kaur, Katrina M; Soleimani Pari, Sina; Sarai, Karnjit; Chan, Denessa; Yao, Christine H; Porto, Paula; Toor, Anmol; Toor, Harpawantaj S; Fograscher, Katrina

    2018-05-01

    Body size is a fundamental ecological trait and is correlated with population dynamics, community structure and function, and ecosystem fluxes. Laboratory data from broad taxonomic groups suggest that a widespread response to a warming world may be an overall decrease in organism body size. However, given the myriad of biotic and abiotic factors that can also influence organism body size in the wild, it is unclear whether results from these laboratory assays hold in nature. Here we use datasets spanning 30 to 100 years to examine whether the body size of wild-caught beetles has changed over time, whether body size changes are correlated with increased temperatures, and we frame these results using predictions derived from a quantitative review of laboratory responses of 22 beetle species to temperature. We found that 95% of laboratory-reared beetles decreased in size with increased rearing temperature, with larger-bodied species shrinking disproportionately more than smaller-bodied beetles. In addition, the museum datasets revealed that larger-bodied beetle species have decreased in size over time, that mean beetle body size explains much of the interspecific variation in beetle responses to temperature, and that long-term beetle size changes are explained by increases in autumn temperature and decreases in spring temperature in this region. Our data demonstrate that the relationship between body size and temperature of wild-caught beetles matches relatively well with results from laboratory studies, and that variation in this relationship is largely explained by interspecific variation in mean beetle body size. This long-term beetle dataset is one of the most comprehensive arthropod body size datasets compiled to date, it improves predictions regarding the shrinking of organisms with global climate change, and together with the meta-analysis data, call for new hypotheses to explain why larger-bodied organisms may be more sensitive to temperature. © 2018 The

  18. First experimental evidence for carbon starvation at warm temperatures in epiphytic orchids of tropical cloud forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, Guenter; Roemer, Helena; Fioroni, Tiffany; Olmedo, Inayat; Kahmen, Ansgar

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cloud forests are among the most climate sensitive ecosystems world-wide. The lack of a strong seasonality and the additional dampening of temperature fluctuations by the omnipresence of clouds and fog produce year-round constant climatic conditions. With climate change the presence of clouds and fog is, however, predicted to be reduced. The disappearance of the cooling fog cover will have dramatic consequences for air temperatures, that are predicted to increase locally well over 5 °C by the end of the 21st century. Especially the large number of endemic epiphytic orchids in tropical cloud forests that contribute substantially to the biological diversity of these ecosystems, but are typically adapted to a very narrow climate envelope, are speculated to be very sensitive to the anticipated rise in temperature. In a phytotron experiment we investigated the effect of increasing temperatures on the carbon balance (gas-exchange and the carbon reserve household) of 10 epiphytic orchid species from the genera Dracula, native to tropical, South-American cloud forests. The orchids were exposed to three temperature treatments: i) a constant temperature treatment (23°C/13°C, day/night) simulating natural conditions, ii) a slow temperature ramp of +0.75 K every 10 days, and iii) a fast temperature ramp of +1.5 K every 10 days. CO2 leaf gas-exchanges was determined every 10 days, and concentrations of low molecular weight sugars and starch were analyses from leaf samples throughout the experiment. We found that increasing temperatures had only minor effects on day-time leaf respiration, but led to a moderate increase of respiration during night-time. In contrast to the rather minor effects of higher temperatures on respiration, there was a dramatic decline of net-photosynthesis above day-time temperatures of 29°C, and a complete stop of net-carbon uptake at 33°C in all investigated species. This high sensitivity of photosynthesis to warming was independent of the

  19. Differential effects of ambient temperature on warm cell responses to infrared radiation in the bloodsucking bug Rhodnius prolixus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zopf, Lydia M; Lazzari, Claudio R; Tichy, Harald

    2014-03-01

    Thermoreceptors provide animals with background information about the thermal environment, which is at least indirectly a prerequisite for thermoregulation and assists bloodsucking insects in the search for their host. Recordings from peg-in-pit sensilla and tapered hairs on the antennae of the bug Rhodnius prolixus revealed two physiologically different types of warm cells. Both types responded more strongly to temperature pulses produced by switching between two air streams at different constant temperatures than to infrared radiation pulses employed in still air. In addition, both warm cells were better able to discriminate small changes in air temperature than in infrared radiation. As convective and radiant heat determines the discharge, it is impossible for a single warm cell to signal the nature of the stimulus unequivocally. Individual responses are ambiguous, not with regard to temperature change, but with regard to its source. We argue that the bugs use mechanical flow information to differentiate between pulses of convective and radiant heat. However, if pulses of radiant heat occur together with a constant temperature air stream, the mechanical cues would not allow avoiding ambiguity that convective heat introduces into radiant heat stimulation. In this situation, the warm cell in the tapered hairs produced stronger responses than those in the peg-in-pit sensilla. The reversal in the excitability of the two types of warm cells provides a criterion by which to distinguish the combination of convective and radiant heat from the stimuli presented alone.

  20. The ratio of land to ocean temperature change under global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, c/o University of Victoria, PO Box 1700, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2011-12-15

    The result in climate simulations, supported in the observation-based record, is that the ratio {phi}= T{sub L}/T{sub O} of land-average to ocean-average temperature change is greater than one and varies comparatively modestly as climate changes. This is investigated in results from the CMIP3 data archive of climate change simulations following the B1 and more strongly forced A1B scenarios as well as in 2 x CO{sub 2} integrations. The associated precipitation ratio {psi}=P{sub L}/P{sub O} is also considered briefly. The behaviour of {phi} is analyzed in terms of a forcing-response view of the energy balance over land and ocean regions. The analysis indicates that the value of {phi}> 1 is not maintained by separate local balances over land and ocean but by an energetic balance that also involves a change in transport between the regions. The transport change does not restrain the land warming by exporting energy to the ocean region but, rather, the reverse. The anomalous transport is from the ocean to the land region even though the ocean warms less than the land does. Feedbacks in the ocean region, especially in the equatorial Pacific, do not sufficiently counteract the forcing and the result is an excess of energy that is transported to the land. The land warms in order to radiate away both the energy from the forcing over land but also the extra energy imported from the ocean region, thereby maintaining {phi} > 1. This situation can be understood to parallel the SST-forced case in model studies where {phi} > 1 despite the forcing being confined to the ocean area. The climate system is effective in redistributing forcing so that it is the local feedbacks, rather than the pattern of the forcing, that determine the temperature response. Land and ocean averaged quantities and budgets behave in a consistent manner to provide a simplified representation of the changes in temperature and energetic processes that are occurring. The geographical distributions of the terms

  1. Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

    2009-01-01

    Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

  2. Operative air temperature data for different measures applied on a building envelope in warm climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Baglivo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Several technical combinations have been evaluated in order to design high energy performance buildings for the warm climate. The analysis has been developed in several steps, avoiding the use of HVAC systems.The methodological approach of this study is based on a sequential search technique and it is shown on the paper entitled “Envelope Design Optimization by Thermal Modeling of a Building in a Warm Climate” [1].The Operative Air Temperature trends (TOP, for each combination, have been plotted through a dynamic simulation performed using the software TRNSYS 17 (a transient system simulation program, University of Wisconsin, Solar Energy Laboratory, USA, 2010.Starting from the simplest building configuration consisting of 9 rooms (equal-sized modules of 5 × 5 m2, the different building components are sequentially evaluated until the envelope design is optimized. The aim of this study is to perform a step-by-step simulation, simplifying as much as possible the model without making additional variables that can modify their performances. Walls, slab-on-ground floor, roof, shading and windows are among the simulated building components. The results are shown for each combination and evaluated for Brindisi, a city in southern Italy having 1083 degrees day, belonging to the national climatic zone C. The data show the trends of the TOP for each measure applied in the case study for a total of 17 combinations divided into eight steps.

  3. Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

    2013-01-01

    Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

  4. Passive Optimization Design Based on Particle Swarm Optimization in Rural Buildings of the Hot Summer and Warm Winter Zone of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilei Lu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of green building is an important way to solve the environmental problems of China’s construction industry. Energy conservation and energy utilization are important for the green building evaluation criteria (GBEC. The objective of this study is to evaluate the quantitative relationship between building shape parameter, envelope parameters, shading system, courtyard and the energy consumption (EC as well as the impact on indoor thermal comfort of rural residential buildings in the hot summer and warm winter zone (HWWZ. Taking Quanzhou (Fujian Province of China as an example, based on the field investigation, EnergyPlus is used to build the building performance model. In addition, the classical particle swarm optimization algorithm in GenOpt software is used to optimize the various factors affecting the EC. Single-objective optimization has provided guidance to the multi-dimensional optimization and regression analysis is used to find the effects of a single input variable on an output variable. Results shows that the energy saving rate of an optimized rural residence is about 26–30% corresponding to the existing rural residence. Moreover, the payback period is about 20 years. A simple case study is used to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed optimization analysis. The optimization can be used to guide the design of new rural construction in the area and the energy saving transformation of the existing rural houses, which can help to achieve the purpose of energy saving and comfort.

  5. The time of day effects of warm temperature on flowering time involve PIF4 and PIF5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thines, Bryan C.; Duarte, Maritza I.; Harmon, Frank G.

    2014-01-01

    Warm temperature promotes flowering in Arabidopsis thaliana and this response involves multiple signalling pathways. To understand the temporal dynamics of temperature perception, tests were carried out to determine if there was a daily window of enhanced sensitivity to warm temperature (28 °C). Warm temperature applied during daytime, night-time, or continuously elicited earlier flowering, but the effects of each treatment were unequal. Plants exposed to warm night (WN) conditions flowered nearly as early as those in constant warm (CW) conditions, while treatment with warm days (WD) caused later flowering than either WN or CW. Flowering in each condition relied to varying degrees on the activity of CO , FT , PIF4 , and PIF5 , as well as the action of unknown genes. The combination of signalling pathways involved in flowering depended on the time of the temperature cue. WN treatments caused a significant advance in the rhythmic expression waveform of CO, which correlated with pronounced up-regulation of FT expression, while WD caused limited changes in CO expression and no stimulation of FT expression. WN- and WD-induced flowering was partially CO independent and, unexpectedly, dependent on PIF4 and PIF5 . pif4-2, pif5-3, and pif4-2 pif5-3 mutants had delayed flowering under all three warm conditions. The double mutant was also late flowering in control conditions. In addition, WN conditions alone imposed selective changes to PIF4 and PIF5 expression. Thus, the PIF4 and PIF5 transcription factors promote flowering by at least two means: inducing FT expression in WN and acting outside of FT by an unknown mechanism in WD. PMID:24574484

  6. Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhiwei; Li, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Because of growing demand from agricultural planning, power management and activity scheduling, extended-range (5-30-day lead) forecasting of summer surface air temperature (SAT) and heat waves over China is carried out in the present study via spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Based on the training data during 1960-1999, the predictability sources are found to propagate from Europe, Northeast Asia, and the tropical Pacific, to influence the intraseasonal 10-80 day SAT over China. STPMs are therefore constructed using the projection domains, which are determined by these previous predictability sources. For the independent forecast period (2000-2013), the STPMs can reproduce EOF-filtered 30-80 day SAT at all lead times of 5-30 days over most part of China, and observed 30-80 and 10-80 day SAT at 25-30 days over eastern China. Significant pattern correlation coefficients account for more than 50% of total forecasts at all 5-30-day lead times against EOF-filtered and observed 30-80 day SAT, and at a 20-day lead time against observed 10-80 day SAT. The STPMs perform poorly in reproducing 10-30 day SAT. Forecasting for the first two modes of 10-30 day SAT only shows useful skill within a 15-day lead time. Forecasting for the third mode of 10-30 day SAT is useless after a 10-day lead time. The forecasted heat waves over China are determined by the reconstructed SAT which is the summation of the forecasted 10-80 day SAT and the lower frequency (longer than 80-day) climatological SAT. Over a large part of China, the STPMs can forecast more than 30% of heat waves within a 15-day lead time. In general, the STPMs demonstrate the promising skill for extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer SAT and heat waves.

  7. Summer planetary-scale oscillations: aura MLS temperature compared with ground-based radar wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Meek

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The advent of satellite based sampling brings with it the opportunity to examine virtually any part of the globe. Aura MLS mesospheric temperature data are analysed in a wavelet format for easy identification of possible planetary waves (PW and aliases masquerading as PW. A calendar year, 2005, of eastward, stationary, and westward waves at a selected latitude is shown in separate panels for wave number range −3 to +3 for period range 8 h to 30 days (d. Such a wavelet analysis is made possible by Aura's continuous sampling at all latitudes 82° S–82° N. The data presentation is suitable for examination of years of data. However this paper focuses on the striking feature of a "dish-shaped" upper limit to periods near 2 d in mid-summer, with longer periods appearing towards spring and fall, a feature also commonly seen in radar winds. The most probable cause is suggested to be filtering by the summer jet at 70–80 km, the latter being available from ground based medium frequency radar (MFR. Classically, the phase velocity of a wave must be greater than that of the jet in order to propagate through it. As an attempt to directly relate satellite and ground based sampling, a PW event of period 8d and wave number 2, which appears to be the original rather than an alias, is compared with ground based radar wind data. An appendix discusses characteristics of satellite data aliases with regard to their periods and amplitudes.

  8. Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature in coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyurgerov, M.; McCabe, G.J.

    2006-01-01

    Low-elevation glaciers in coastal regions of Alaska, the Canadian Arctic, individual ice caps around the Greenland ice sheet, and the Patagonia Ice Fields have an aggregate glacier area of about 332 ?? 103 km 2 and account for approximately 42% of all the glacier area outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. They have shown volume loss, especially since the end of the 1980s, increasing from about 45% in the 1960s to nearly 67% in 2003 of the total wastage from all glaciers on Earth outside those two largest ice sheets. Thus, a disproportionally large contribution of coastal glacier ablation to sea level rise is evident. We examine cumulative standardized departures (1961-2000 reference period) of glacier mass balances and air temperature data in these four coastal regions. Analyses indicate a strong association between increases in glacier volume losses and summer air temperature at regional and global scales. Increases in glacier volume losses in the coastal regions also coincide with an accelerated rate of ice discharge from outlet glaciers draining the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. These processes imply further increases in sea level rise. ?? 2006 Regents of the University of Colorado.

  9. The indirect global warming potential and global temperature change potential due to methane oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Collins, Bill; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Shine, Keith P

    2009-01-01

    Methane is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere next to carbon dioxide. Its global warming potential (GWP) for a time horizon of 100 years is 25, which makes it an attractive target for climate mitigation policies. Although the methane GWP traditionally includes the methane indirect effects on the concentrations of ozone and stratospheric water vapour, it does not take into account the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation. We argue here that this CO 2 -induced effect should be included for fossil sources of methane, which results in slightly larger GWP values for all time horizons. If the global temperature change potential is used as an alternative climate metric, then the impact of the CO 2 -induced effect is proportionally much larger. We also discuss what the correction term should be for methane from anthropogenic biogenic sources.

  10. Global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2007-08-01

    Data on colony growth of the branching coral Acropora palmata from fringing reefs off Discovery Bay on the north coast of Jamaica have been obtained over the period 2002-2007 using underwater photography and image analysis by both SCUBA and remotely using an ROV incorporating twin lasers. Growth modelling shows that while logarithmic growth is an approximate model for growth, a 3:3 rational polynomial function provides a significantly better fit to growth data for this coral species. Over the period 2002-2007, involving several cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) change, the rate of growth of A. palmata was largely proportional to rate of change of SST, with R(2)=0.935. These results have implications for the influence of global warming and climate change on coral reef ecosystems.

  11. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L. E.

    2015-01-01

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary. PMID:26259555

  12. Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

    2015-08-11

    Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

  13. Coupling between marine boundary layer clouds and summer-to-summer sea surface temperature variability over the North Atlantic and Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Timothy A.; Mechoso, Carlos R.; DeFlorio, Michael J.

    2018-02-01

    Climate modes of variability over the Atlantic and Pacific may be amplified by a positive feedback between sea-surface temperature (SST) and marine boundary layer clouds. However, it is well known that climate models poorly simulate this feedback. Does this deficiency contribute to model-to-model differences in the representation of climate modes of variability? Over both the North Atlantic and Pacific, typical summertime interannual to interdecadal SST variability exhibits horseshoe-like patterns of co-located anomalies of shortwave cloud radiative effect (CRE), low-level cloud fraction, SST, and estimated inversion strength over the subtropics and midlatitudes that are consistent with a positive cloud feedback. During winter over the midlatitudes, this feedback appears to be diminished. Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that simulate a weak feedback between subtropical SST and shortwave CRE produce smaller and less realistic amplitudes of summertime SST and CRE variability over the northern oceans compared to models with a stronger feedback. The change in SST amplitude per unit change in CRE amplitude among the models and observations may be understood as the temperature response of the ocean mixed layer to a unit change in radiative flux over the course of a season. These results highlight the importance of boundary layer clouds in interannual to interdecadal atmosphere-ocean variability over the northern oceans during summer. The results also suggest that deficiencies in the simulation of these clouds in coupled climate models contribute to underestimation in their simulation of summer-to-summer SST variability.

  14. Perioperative warming with a thermal gown prevents maternal temperature loss during elective cesarean section. A randomized clinical trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bernardis, Ricardo Caio Gracco; Siaulys, Monica Maria; Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Mathias, Lígia Andrade Silva Telles

    2016-01-01

    Decrease in body temperature is common during general and regional anesthesia. Forced-air warming intraoperative during cesarean section under spinal anesthesia seems not able to prevent it. The hypothesis considers that active warming before the intraoperative period avoids temperature loss during cesarean. Forty healthy pregnant patients undergoing elective cesarean section with spinal anesthesia received active warming from a thermal gown in the preoperative care unit 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery (Go, n=20), or no active warming at any time (Ct, n=20). After induction of spinal anesthesia, the thermal gown was replaced over the chest and upper limbs and maintained throughout study. Room temperature, hemoglobin saturation, heart rate, arterial pressure, and tympanic body temperature were registered 30min before (baseline) spinal anesthesia, right after it (time zero) and every 15min thereafter. There was no difference for temperature at baseline, but they were significant throughout the study (p<0.0001; repeated measure ANCOVA). Tympanic temperature baseline was 36.6±0.3°C, measured 36.5±0.3°C at time zero and reached 36.1±0.2°C for gown group, while control group had baseline temperature of 36.4±0.4°C, measured 36.3±0.3°C at time zero and reached 35.4±0.4°C (F=32.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.86; p<0.001). Hemodynamics did not differ throughout the study for both groups of patients. Active warming 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery prevented a fall in body temperature in full-term pregnant women during elective cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  15. [Perioperative warming with a thermal gown prevents maternal temperature loss during elective cesarean section. A randomized clinical trial].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernardis, Ricardo Caio Gracco de; Siaulys, Monica Maria; Vieira, Joaquim Edson; Mathias, Lígia Andrade Silva Telles

    2016-01-01

    Decrease in body temperature is common during general and regional anesthesia. Forced-air warming intraoperative during cesarean section under spinal anesthesia seems not able to prevent it. The hypothesis considers that active warming before the intraoperative period avoids temperature loss during cesarean. Forty healthy pregnant patients undergoing elective cesarean section with spinal anesthesia received active warming from a thermal gown in the preoperative care unit 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery (Go, n=20), or no active warming at any time (Ct, n=20). After induction of spinal anesthesia, the thermal gown was replaced over the chest and upper limbs and maintained throughout study. Room temperature, hemoglobin saturation, heart rate, arterial pressure, and tympanic body temperature were registered 30min before (baseline) spinal anesthesia, right after it (time zero) and every 15min thereafter. There was no difference for temperature at baseline, but they were significant throughout the study (p<0.0001; repeated measure ANCOVA). Tympanic temperature baseline was 36.6±0.3°C, measured 36.5±0.3°C at time zero and reached 36.1±0.2°C for gown group, while control group had baseline temperature of 36.4±0.4°C, measured 36.3±0.3°C at time zero and reached 35.4±0.4°C (F=32.53; 95% CI 0.45-0.86; p<0.001). Hemodynamics did not differ throughout the study for both groups of patients. Active warming 30min before spinal anesthesia and during surgery prevented a fall in body temperature in full-term pregnant women during elective cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Anestesiologia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  16. Urban Imperviousness Effects on Summer Surface Temperatures Nearby Residential Buildings in Different Urban Zones of Parma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Morabito

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Rapid and unplanned urban growth is responsible for the continuous conversion of green or generally natural spaces into artificial surfaces. The high degree of imperviousness modifies the urban microclimate and no studies have quantified its influence on the surface temperature (ST nearby residential building. This topic represents the aim of this study carried out during summer in different urban zones (densely urbanized or park/rural areas of Parma (Northern Italy. Daytime and nighttime ASTER images, the local urban cartography and the Italian imperviousness databases were used. A reproducible/replicable framework was implemented named “Building Thermal Functional Area” (BTFA useful to lead building-proxy thermal analyses by using remote sensing data. For each residential building (n = 8898, the BTFA was assessed and the correspondent ASTER-LST value (ST_BTFA and the imperviousness density were calculated. Both daytime and nighttime ST_BTFA significantly (p < 0.001 increased when high levels of imperviousness density surrounded the residential buildings. These relationships were mostly consistent during daytime and in densely urbanized areas. ST_BTFA differences between urban and park/rural areas were higher during nighttime (above 1 °C than daytime (about 0.5 °C. These results could help to identify “urban thermal Hot-Spots” that would benefit most from mitigation actions.

  17. Development of strategies for saving energy by temperature reduction in warm forging processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varela, Sonia; Santos, Maite; Vadillo, Leire; Idoyaga, Zuriñe; Valbuena, Óscar

    2016-10-01

    This paper is associated to the European policy of increasing efficiency in raw material and energy usage. This policy becomes even more important in sectors consuming high amount of resources, like hot forging industry, where material costs sums up to 50% of component price and energy ones are continuously raising. The warm forging shows a clear potential of raw material reduction (near-net-shape components) and also of energy saving (forging temperature under 1000°C). However and due to the increment of the energy costs, new solutions are required by the forging sector in order to reduce the temperature below 900°C. The reported research is based on several approaches to reduce the forging temperature applied to a flanged shaft of the automotive sector as demonstration case. The developed investigations have included several aspects: raw material, process parameters, tools and dies behavior during forging process and also metallographic evaluation of the forged parts. This paper summarizes analysis of the ductility and the admissible forces of the flanged shaft material Ck45 in as-supplied state (as-rolled) and also in two additional heat treated states. Hot compression and tensile tests using a GLEEBLE 3800C Thermo mechanical simulator have been performed pursuing this target. In the same way, a coupled numerical model based on Finite Element Method (FEM) has been developed to predict the material flow, the forging loads and the stresses on the tools at lower temperature with the new heat treatments of the raw material. In order to validate the previous development, experimental trials at 850 °C and 750 °C were carried out in a mechanical press and the results were very promising.

  18. Importance of finite-temperature exchange correlation for warm dense matter calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karasiev, Valentin V; Calderín, Lázaro; Trickey, S B

    2016-06-01

    The effects of an explicit temperature dependence in the exchange correlation (XC) free-energy functional upon calculated properties of matter in the warm dense regime are investigated. The comparison is between the Karasiev-Sjostrom-Dufty-Trickey (KSDT) finite-temperature local-density approximation (TLDA) XC functional [Karasiev et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 076403 (2014)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.112.076403] parametrized from restricted path-integral Monte Carlo data on the homogeneous electron gas (HEG) and the conventional Monte Carlo parametrization ground-state LDA XC [Perdew-Zunger (PZ)] functional evaluated with T-dependent densities. Both Kohn-Sham (KS) and orbital-free density-functional theories are used, depending upon computational resource demands. Compared to the PZ functional, the KSDT functional generally lowers the dc electrical conductivity of low-density Al, yielding improved agreement with experiment. The greatest lowering is about 15% for T=15 kK. Correspondingly, the KS band structure of low-density fcc Al from the KSDT functional exhibits a clear increase in interband separation above the Fermi level compared to the PZ bands. In some density-temperature regimes, the deuterium equations of state obtained from the two XC functionals exhibit pressure differences as large as 4% and a 6% range of differences. However, the hydrogen principal Hugoniot is insensitive to the explicit XC T dependence because of cancellation between the energy and pressure-volume work difference terms in the Rankine-Hugoniot equation. Finally, the temperature at which the HEG becomes unstable is T≥7200 K for the T-dependent XC, a result that the ground-state XC underestimates by about 1000 K.

  19. An experimental study of the effect of different starting room temperatures on occupant comfort in Danish summer weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bourdakis, Eleftherios; Simone, Angela; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2018-01-01

    As office workers will usually have a slightly elevated metabolic rate when arriving at work, they may prefer a room temperature below the comfort range for sedentary activity in the morning. This possibility was studied in an experiment with 25 young people, male and female, exposed to four diff...... be maintained in the early office hours, and that this will lead to a lower maximum room temperature during the day, which would result in less demand for cooling during the summer period....

  20. Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

    2018-04-01

    Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  1. Chironomid-based reconstructions of summer air temperature from lake deposits in Lyndon Stream, New Zealand spanning the MIS 3/2 transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, C. A.; Shulmeister, J.

    2007-01-01

    We present chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from lake sediments deposited between ca 26,600 cal yr BP and 24,500 cal yr BP from Lyndon Stream, South Island, New Zealand. Summer (February mean) temperatures averaged 1 °C cooler, with a maximum inferred cooling of 3.7 °C. These estimates corroborate macrofossil and beetle-based temperature inferences from the same site and suggest climate amelioration (an interstadial) at this time. Other records from the New Zealand region also show a large degree of variability during the late Otiran glacial sequence (34,000-18,000 cal yr BP) including a phase of warming at the MIS 2/3 transition and a maximum cooling that did not occur until the global LGM (ca 20,000 cal yr BP). The very moderate cooling identified here at the MIS 2/3 transition confirms and enhances the long-standing discrepancy in New Zealand records between pollen and other proxies. Low abundances (<20%) of canopy tree pollen in records from late MIS 3 to the end of MIS 2 cannot be explained by the minor (<5 °C) cooling inferred from this and other studies unless other environmental parameters are considered. Further work is required to address this critical issue.

  2. Verification of surface minimum, mean, and maximum temperature forecasts in Calabria for summer 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Federico

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005, one-hour temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (southern Italy, modelled by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS, have been issued by CRATI/ISAC-CNR (Consortium for Research and Application of Innovative Technologies/Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Sciences of the National Research Council and are available online at http://meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html (every six hours. Beginning in June 2008, the horizontal resolution was enhanced to 2.5 km. In the present paper, forecast skill and accuracy are evaluated out to four days for the 2008 summer season (from 6 June to 30 September, 112 runs. For this purpose, gridded high horizontal resolution forecasts of minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures are evaluated against gridded analyses at the same horizontal resolution (2.5 km.

    Gridded analysis is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI and uses the RAMS first-day temperature forecast as the background field. Observations from 87 thermometers are used in the analysis system. The analysis error is introduced to quantify the effect of using the RAMS first-day forecast as the background field in the OI analyses and to define the forecast error unambiguously, while spatial interpolation (SI analysis is considered to quantify the statistics' sensitivity to the verifying analysis and to show the quality of the OI analyses for different background fields.

    Two case studies, the first one with a low (less than the 10th percentile root mean square error (RMSE in the OI analysis, the second with the largest RMSE of the whole period in the OI analysis, are discussed to show the forecast performance under two different conditions. Cumulative statistics are used to quantify forecast errors out to four days. Results show that maximum temperature has the largest RMSE, while minimum and mean temperature errors are similar. For the period considered

  3. Explaining the mechanisms through which regional atmospheric circulation variability drives summer temperatures and glacial melt in western High Mountain Asia (HMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe, Nathan; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Li, Xiaofeng; Pritchard, David

    2017-04-01

    Comprehension of mechanisms by which atmospheric circulation influences sub-regional temperature and water resources variability in high-elevation mountainous catchments is of great scientific urgency due to the dependency of large downstream populations on the river flows these basins provide. In this work we quantify a regional atmospheric pattern, the Karakoram Zonal Shear (KZS), with a very pronounced annual cycle which we standardise into a dimensionless (seasonal) circulation metric the Karakoram Zonal Index (KZI). Going beyond previous regional circulation metrics such as the "middle-upper tropospheric temperature index" (MUTTI) or the Webster and Yang Monsoonal Index (WYMI) which have focused solely on the South Asian Summer Monsoon (June to September) season, the KZS/KZI provides an indicator which captures the influence and interactions of the westerly jet throughout the entire annual cycle. Use of the KZS and KZI have led us to identify a further regional atmospheric system, the Karakoram Vortex, which propagates "warm high" (anticyclonic postitive temperature anomaly) and "cold low" (cyclonic negative temperature anomaly) patterns across a very broad swath of Central and South Asia in winter but over a much more constrained area of western HMA in summer. The KV exerts this temperature influence through a combination of adiabatic effects and large-scale advection. Quantify KV influence, the KZI shows strong and statistically significantly near surface (2m) air temperatures both across western HMA both as observed through local meteorological stations and as estimated by an ensemble of global meteorological reanalyses. We show that this strong influence on temperature translates to important consequences for meltwater generation from highly glaciated Indus river tributaries which is logical given that previous studies have established the role of air temperature in modulating glacially-derived river flows in western HMA. By improving the understanding of

  4. The Little Ice Age signature and subsequent warming seen in borehole temperature logs versus solar forcing model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Przybylak, R.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 103, č. 4 (2014), s. 1163-1173 ISSN 1437-3254 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : surface processes * borehole temperatures * climatic warming * Little Ice Age * solar irradiation Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.093, year: 2014

  5. East to west retardation in the onset of the recent warming across Canada inferred from inversions of temperature logs

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan; Skinner, W.

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 107, B10 (2002), s. ETG6 1-12 ISSN 0148-0227 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3012916 Keywords : Canada climate warming * borehole temperature * geothermics Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 2.245, year: 2002

  6. Ground surface warming history in northern Canada inferred from inversions of temperature logs and comparison with other proxy climate reconstructions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J. A.; Skinner, W. R.; Šafanda, Jan

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 162, č. 2 (2005), s. 109-128 ISSN 0033-4553 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : global warming * regional climate variability and change * borehole temperatures Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.975, year: 2005

  7. Effect of postglacial warming seen in high precision temperature log deep into the granites in NE Alberta

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Majorowicz, J.; Šafanda, Jan

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 104, č. 6 (2015), s. 1563-1571 ISSN 1437-3254 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP210/11/0183 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : surface processes * borehole temperatures * climatic warming * Ice Age * heat flow Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.133, year: 2015

  8. New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

    2017-06-20

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

  9. Moisture Sensitivity of Crumb Rubber Modified Modifier Warm Mix Asphalt Additive for Two Different Compaction Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilema, Munder A.; Aman, Mohamad Y.; Hassan, Norhidayah A.; Ahmad, Kabiru A.; Elghatas, Hamza M.; Radwan, Ashraf A.; Shyaa, Ahmed S.

    2018-04-01

    Crumb rubber obtained from scrap tires has been incorporated with asphalt binder to improve the performance of asphalt mixtures in the past decades. Pavements containing crumb-rubber modified (CRM) binders present one major drawback: larger amounts of greenhouse gas emissions are produced as there is rise in the energy consumption at the asphalt plant due to the higher viscosity of these type of binders compared with a conventional mixture. The objective of this paper is to calculate the optimum bitumen content for each percentage and evaluate the moisture sensitivity of crumb rubber modified asphalt at two different compacting temperatures. In this study, crumb rubber modified percentages was 0%, 5%, 10% and 15% from the binder weight, with adding 1.5% warm mix asphalt additive (Sasobit) and crush granite aggregate of 9.5mm Nominal maximum size was used after assessing its properties. Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) used by 2% from fine aggregate. The wet method was using to mix the CRM with bitumen, the CRM conducted at 177°C for 30 min with 700rpm and Sasobit conducted at 120°C for 10 min with 1000rpm. As a result, from this study the optimum bitumen content (OBC) was increased with increased crumb rubber content. For performance test, it was conducted using the AASHTO T283 (2007): Resistance of Compacted Bituminous Mixture to Moisture-Induced Damage. The result was as expected and it was within the specification of the test, the result show that the moisture damage increased with increased the crumb rubber content but it is not exceeding the limit of specification 80% for indirect tension strength ratio (ITSR). For the temperature was with lowing the temperature the moisture damage increased.

  10. Spring Soil Temperature Anomalies over Tibetan Plateau and Summer Droughts/Floods in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Y.; Li, W.; LI, Q.; Diallo, I.; Chu, P. C.; Guo, W.; Fu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Recurrent extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, are important features of the climate of East Asia, especially over the Yangtze River basin. Many studies have attributed these episodes to variability and anomaly of global sea surface temperatures (SST) anomaly. In addition, snow in the Tibetan Plateau has also been considered as one of the factors affecting the Asian monsoon variability. However, studies have consistently shown that SST along is unable to explain the extreme climate events fully and snow has difficulty to use as a predictor. Remote effects of observed large-scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature variability in Tibetan Plateau (TP) on East Asian regional droughts/floods, however, have been largely ignored. We conjecture that a temporally filtered response to snow anomalies may be preserved in the LST anomaly. In this study, evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses the LST/SUBT effects. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) of observational data identifies that a pronounce spring LST anomaly pattern over TP is closely associated with precipitation anomalies in East Asia with a dipole pattern, i.e., negative/positive TP spring LST anomaly is associated with the summer drought/flood over the region south of the Yangtze River and wet/dry conditions to the north of the Yangtze River. Climate models were used to demonstrate a causal relationship between spring cold LST anomaly in the TP and the severe 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River in eastern Asia. This severe drought resulted in 100 x 106 kg crop yield losses and an economic loss of 5.8 billion Chinese Yuan. The modeling study suggests that the LST effect produced about 58% of observed precipitation deficit; while the SST effect produced about 32% of the drought conditions. Meanwhile, the LST and SST effects also simulated the observed flood over to the north of the Yangtze River. This suggests that inclusion of

  11. Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperatures equally important for Land Climate in the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-12-01

    Both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture (SM) are important drivers of climate variability over land. In this study we present a comprehensive comparison of SM versus SST impacts on land climate in the warm season. We perform ensemble experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) where we set SM or SSTs to median conditions, respectively, to remove their inter-annual variability, whereby the other component - SST or SM - is still interactively computed. In contrast to earlier experiments performed with prescribed SSTs, our experiments suggest that SM is overall as important as SSTs for land climate, not only in the midlatitudes but also in the tropics and subtropics. Mean temperature and precipitation are reduced by 0.1-0.5 K and 0-0.2 mm, respectively, whereas their variability at different time scales decreases by 10-40% (temperature) and 0-10% (precipitation) when either SM or SSTs are prescribed. Also drought occurrence is affected, with mean changes in the maximum number of cumulative dry days of 0-0.75 days. Both SM and SST-induced changes are strongest for hot temperatures (up to 0.7 K, and 50%), extreme precipitation (up to 0.4 mm, and 20%), and strong droughts (up to 2 days). Local climate changes in response to removed SM variability are controlled - to first order - by the land-atmosphere coupling and the natural SM variability. SST-related changes are partly controlled by the relation of local temperature or precipitation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Moreover removed SM or SST variabilities both induce remote effects by impacting the atmospheric circulation. Our results are similar for the present day and the end of the century. We investigate the inter-dependency between SM and SST and find a sufficient degree of independence for the purpose of this study. The robustness of our findings is shown by comparing the response of CESM to removed SM variability with four other global climate models. In summary, SM and SSTs

  12. A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsung, Frank; Wechsung, Maximilian

    2016-11-01

    The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.

  13. Paleoenvironmental inference models from sediment diatom assemblages in Baffin Island lakes (Nunavut, Canada) and reconstruction of summer water temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joynt, E. H. III; Wolfe, A. P. [Colorado Univ., Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2001-06-01

    Lake sediments are attractive repositories for paleoclimate proxy data because they are temporally continuous, undisturbed and datable. It is particularly true of lakes which are ubiquitous throughout the Arctic regions, enabling dense spatial coverage of sampling sites. In more recent times diatoms have been applied to a a variety of paleoenvironmental questions. However, these studies have been of limited usefulness because they lack a regional training set that would facilitate making quantitative paleoenvironmental inferences. This article provides this inferential tool, together with an example of its application. Conductivity, pH, summer lake water temperature, and mean annual air temperature have been identified as the significant controls over diatom assemblages from the surface sediments of 61 lakes on Baffin Island. Using weighted-averaging regression and calibration, predictive models for these parameters have been developed. Results show that the summer lake water temperature model provides realistic reconstructions when compared with other paleoenvironmental records. Over the past 5000 years the amplitude of reconstructed summer lake water temperature was found to be on the order of 4 degrees C, expressed primarily as progressive neoglacial cooling culminating in the Little Ice Age. Diatom-inferred summer water temperatures have increased by about 2 degrees C in the past 150 years, which is also in agreement with independent paleoclimatic reconstructions. The data obtained in this study complements similar efforts from the western Canadian Arctic and the northern reaches of Scandinavia, however, this is the first training set developed for lakes situated entirely north of the tree line. As such, it extends the applicability of diatoms for paleotemperature reconstructions well into the Arctic tundra biome. 45 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs., 1 appendix.

  14. Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

    2018-01-01

    We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

  15. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-06-06

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015-16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes.

  16. Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirumalai, Kaustubh; DiNezio, Pedro N.; Okumura, Yuko; Deser, Clara

    2017-01-01

    In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years. We then quantify the relative contributions of long-term warming and the 2015–16 El Niño to the extreme April 2016 SATs. The results indicate that global warming increases the likelihood of record-breaking April extremes where we estimate that 29% of the 2016 anomaly was caused by warming and 49% by El Niño. These post-Niño Aprils can potentially be anticipated a few months in advance, and thus, help societies prepare for the projected continued increases in extremes. PMID:28585927

  17. Seed dormancy and germination changes of snowbed species under climate warming: the role of pre- and post-dispersal temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernareggi, Giulietta; Carbognani, Michele; Mondoni, Andrea; Petraglia, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims Climate warming has major impacts on seed germination of several alpine species, hence on their regeneration capacity. Most studies have investigated the effects of warming after seed dispersal, and little is known about the effects a warmer parental environment may have on germination and dormancy of the seed progeny. Nevertheless, temperatures during seed development and maturation could alter the state of dormancy, affecting the timing of emergence and seedling survival. Here, the interplay between pre- and post-dispersal temperatures driving seed dormancy release and germination requirements of alpine plants were investigated. Methods Three plant species inhabiting alpine snowbeds were exposed to an artificial warming treatment (i.e. +1·5 K) and to natural conditions in the field. Seeds produced were exposed to six different periods of cold stratification (0, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 20 weeks at 0 °C), followed by four incubation temperatures (5, 10, 15 and 20 °C) for germination testing. Key Results A warmer parental environment produced either no or a significant increase in germination, depending on the duration of cold stratification, incubation temperatures and their interaction. In contrast, the speed of germination was less sensitive to changes in the parental environment. Moreover, the effects of warming appeared to be linked to the level of (physiological) seed dormancy, with deeper dormant species showing major changes in response to incubation temperatures and less dormant species in response to cold stratification periods. Conclusions Plants developed under warmer climates will produce seeds with changed germination responses to temperature and/or cold stratification, but the extent of these changes across species could be driven by seed dormancy traits. Transgenerational plastic adjustments of seed germination and dormancy shown here may result from increased seed viability, reduced primary and secondary dormancy state, or both, and

  18. Cold climate bioventing with soil warming in Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayles, G.D.; Brenner, R.C.; Leeson, A.; Hinchee, R.E.; Vogel, C.M.

    1995-01-01

    In the heart of Alaska, a 3-year field study was conducted of bioventing in conjunction with several soil warming methods. The contamination was JP-4 jet fuel. The soil warming methods evaluated, chosen for their apparent low cost, were (1) application of warm water at a low rate, (2) enhanced solar warming by covering the surface with clear plastic in the summer and covering the surface with insulation in the winter, and (3) buried heat pipe. The warm water and buried heat tape methods performed best, maintaining summer-like 10 to 20 C temperatures in the test plots year round, compared to the temperature of the unheated control plot, which dipped to -1 C in the winter. The solar/insulation warming method showed a modest improvement in temperature over the unheated control test plot. The annual average temperatures of the warm water, heat tape, solar, and control plots were 16.9, 14.5, 6.1, and 3.5 C, respectively. The biodegradation rates, measured by in situ respirometry, were higher in plots with higher temperatures and followed the Arrhenius relationship. Despite the low temperature, significant biodegradation was observed in the unheated plot during the winter

  19. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  20. The effect of slightly warm temperature on work performance and comfort in open-plan offices - a laboratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maula, H; Hongisto, V; Östman, L; Haapakangas, A; Koskela, H; Hyönä, J

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the effect of a temperature of 29°C on performance in tasks involving different cognitive demands and to assess the effect on perceived performance, subjective workload, thermal comfort, perceived working conditions, cognitive fatigue, and somatic symptoms in a laboratory with realistic office environment. A comparison was made with a temperature of 23°C. Performance was measured on the basis of six different tasks that reflect different stages of cognitive performance. Thirty-three students participated in the experiment. The exposure time was 3.5 h in both thermal conditions. Performance was negatively affected by slightly warm temperature in the N-back working memory task. Temperature had no effect on performance in other tasks focusing on psychomotor, working memory, attention, or long-term memory capabilities. Temperature had no effect on perceived performance. However, slightly warm temperature caused concentration difficulties. Throat symptoms were found to increase over time at 29°C, but no temporal change was seen at 23°C. No effect of temperature on other symptoms was found. As expected, the differences in thermal comfort were significant. Women perceived a temperature of 23°C colder than men. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Predicting Indian Summer Monsoon onset through variations of surface air temperature and relative humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolbova, Veronika; Surovyatkina, Elena; Kurths, Jurgen

    2015-04-01

    Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has an enormous effect on Indian agriculture, economy, and, as a consequence, life and prosperity of more than one billion people. Variability of the monsoonal rainfall and its onset have a huge influence on food production, agricultural planning and GDP of the country, which on 22% is determined by agriculture. Consequently, successful forecasting of the ISM onset is a big challenge and large efforts are being put into it. Here, we propose a novel approach for predictability of the ISM onset, based on critical transition theory. The ISM onset is defined as an abrupt transition from sporadious rainfall to spatially organized and temporally sustained rainfall. Taking this into account, we consider the ISM onset as is a critical transition from pre-monsoon to monsoon, which take place in time and also in space. It allows us to suggest that before the onset of ISM on the Indian subcontinent should be areas of critical behavior where indicators of the critical transitions can be detected through an analysis of observational data. First, we identify areas with such critical behavior. Second, we use detected areas as reference points for observation locations for the ISM onset prediction. Third, we derive a precursor for the ISM onset based on the analysis of surface air temperature and relative humidity variations in these reference points. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of this precursor on two observational data sets. The proposed approach allows to determine ISM onset in advance in 67% of all considered years. Our proposed approach is less effective during the anomalous years, which are associated with weak/strong monsoons, e.g. El-Nino, La-Nina or positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. The ISM onset is predicted for 23 out of 27 normal monsoon years (85%) during the past 6 decades. In the anomalous years, we show that time series analysis in both areas during the pre-monsoon period reveals indicators whether the

  2. Quantitative summer temperature reconstruction derived from a combined biogenic Si and chironomid record from varved sediments of Lake Silvaplana (south-eastern Swiss Alps) back to AD 1177

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trachsel, M.; Grosjean, M.; Larocque-Tobler, I.; Schwikowski, M.; Blass, A.; Sturm, M.

    2010-09-01

    High-resolution quantitative temperature records are needed for placing the recent warming into the context of long-term natural climate variability. In this study we present a quantitative high-resolution (9-year) summer (June-August) temperature reconstruction back to AD 1177 for the south-eastern Swiss Alps. This region is a good predictor for summer temperatures in large parts of western and central Europe. Our reconstruction is based on a combination of the high-frequency component of annually resolved biogenic silica (bSi flux) data and the low-frequency component of decadal chironomid-inferred temperatures from annually laminated well dated sediments (varves) from proglacial Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps. For the calibration (period AD 1760-1949) we assess systematically the effects of six different regression methods (Type I regressions: Inverse Regression IR, Inverse Prediction IP, Generalised Least Squares GLS; Type II regressions: Major Axis MA, Ranged Major Axis RMA and Standard Major Axis SMA) with regard to the predicted amplitude and the calibration statistics such as root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP), reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE). We found a trade-off in the regression model choice between a good representation of the amplitude and good calibration statistics. The band-pass filtered bSi flux record is in close agreement both in the structure and the amplitude with two fully independent reconstructions spanning back to AD 1500 and AD 1177, respectively. All known pulses of negative volcanic forcing are represented as cold anomalies in the bSi flux record. Volcanic pulses combined with low solar activity (Spörer and Maunder Minimum) are seen as particularly cold episodes around AD 1460 and AD 1690. The combined chironomid and bSi flux temperature record (RMSEP = 0.57 °C) is in good agreement with the glacier history of the Alps. The warmest (AD 1190) and coldest decades (17th century; 1680-1700) of our

  3. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  4. Temperature-induced water stress in high-latitude forests in response to natural and anthropogenic warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trahan, Matthew W; Schubert, Brian A

    2016-02-01

    The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2 ) and temperature on high-latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ(13) C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree-ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth-century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ(13) C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high-latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth-Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ(13) C in response to twentieth century pCO2 rise, a significant negative relationship (r = -0.53, P forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO2 . We conclude that annual tree-ring records from northern high-latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and pCO2 rise across the twentieth century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Senfeng; Duan, Anmin

    2017-02-01

    The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.

  6. Delimitation of the warm and cold period of the year based on the variation of the Aegean sea surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. MAVRAKIS

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the warm and cold season onset is important for the living conditions and the occupational activities of the inhabitants of a given area, and especially for agriculture and tourism. This paper presents a way to estimate the onset/end of the cold and warm period of the year, based on the sinusoidal annual variation of the Sea Surface Temperature. The method was applied on data from 8 stations of the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service, covering the period from 1965-1995. The results showed that the warm period starts sometime between April 28th and May 21st while it ends between October 27th and November 19th in accordance with the findings of other studies. Characteristic of the nature of the parameter used is the very low variance per station – 15 days at maximum. The average date of warm period onset is statistically the same for the largest part of the Aegean, with only one differentiation, that between Kavala and the southern stations ( Thira and Heraklion.

  7. Spin temperature and density of cold and warm H I in the Galactic disk: Hidden H I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofue, Yoshiaki

    2018-05-01

    We present a method to determine the spin temperature TS and volume density n of H I gas simultaneously along the tangent-point circle of Galactic rotation in the Milky Way by using the χ2 method. The best-fit TS is shown to range either in TS ˜ 100-120 K or in 1000-3000 K, indicating that the gas is in the cold H I phase with high density and large optical depth, or in warm H I with low density and small optical depth. Averaged values at 3 ≤ R ≤ 8 kpc are obtained to be TS = 106.7 ± 16.0 K and n = 1.53 ± 0.86 H cm-3 for cold H I, and 1720 ± 1060 K and 0.38 ± 0.10 H cm-3 for warm H I, where R = 8 |sinl| kpc is the galacto-centric distance along the tangent-point circle. The cold H I appears in spiral arms and rings, whereas warm H I appears in the inter-arm regions. The cold H I is denser by a factor of ˜4 than warm H I. The present analysis has revealed the hidden H I mass in the cold and optically thick phase in the Galactic disk. The total H I mass inside the solar circle is shown to be greater by a factor of 2-2.5 than the current estimation by the optically thin assumption.

  8. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  9. Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.

  10. Relationships between δ18O in summer precipitation and temperature and moisture trajectories at Muztagata, western China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU; Wusheng; YAO; Tandong; TIAN; Lide; LI; Zhen; SUN; Weizhen; WANG; Yu

    2006-01-01

    Based on summer observations of stable isotope of precipitation at Muztagata, western China, during 2002―2003, this paper presents the relationship between δ18O in precipitation and air temperature, and discusses the effect of moisture transport on δ18O in precipitation. Results show that air temperature correlates positively with δ18O in precipitation, and the temperature effect controls the δ18O of precipitation in this area. The Muztagata region exhibits high δ18O values in summer precipitation, similar to those shown at stations in adjacent regions. According to the results of our model set up to trace the moisture trajectories, the westerlies and local moisture circulation contribute to variations of oxygen isotopes in precipitation. In addition, the impacts of the moisture transport distance, the moisture transport level, and the incursion of the polar air mass also influence the variations of δ18O in precipitation. The moisture origins and transport mechanisms also contribute to the variation of δ18O in precipitation at Muztagata.

  11. Faecal glucocorticoid metabolites and body temperature in Australian merino ewes (Ovis aries) during summer artificial insemination (AI) program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Gregory; Parisella, Simone

    2018-01-01

    Reproductive wastage is a key issue for sheep producers, both regionally and globally. The reproductive output of farm animals can be influenced by physiological and environmental factors. Rapid and reliable quantification of physiological stress can provide a useful tool for designing and testing on-farm management interventions to improve farm animal welfare and productivity. In this study, we quantified physiological stress non-invasively using faecal glucocorticoid metabolites-FGMs analysis and body temperature measurements of 15 superovulated donor merino ewes (Ovis aries) during participation in artificial insemination (AI) program conducted during 2015/2016 Australian summer. We hypothesized that low percentage transferable embryos in donor merino ewes will be associated positively with higher body temperature and/or higher FGMs in these ewes. Temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated and found within high thermal stress range during the two AI trials. Overall, results showed none of the factors (ewe ID, AI trial no., THI or FGMs) were significant for reduced percentage transferrable embryos, except ewe body temperature was highly significant (p = 0.014). Within AI trial comparisons showed significant positive associations between higher FGMs and body temperature with reduced transferrable embryos. These results suggest that Australian merino ewes participating in summer AI trials can experience physiological stress. Prolonged activation of the stress endocrine response and high body temperature (e.g. ensued from heat stress) could impact on ewe reproductive output. Therefore, future research should apply minimally invasive physiological tools to gather baseline information on physiological stress in merino sheep to enable the development of new farm-friendly methods of managing stress. PMID:29381759

  12. CAUSES: On the Role of Surface Energy Budget Errors to the Warm Surface Air Temperature Error Over the Central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, H.-Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.; Zhang, C.; Tang, S.; Tang, Q.; Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Petch, J.; Ahlgrimm, M.; Berg, L. K.; Cheruy, F.; Cole, J.; Forbes, R.; Gustafson, W. I.; Huang, M.; Liu, Y.; Merryfield, W.; Qian, Y.; Roehrig, R.; Wang, Y.-C.

    2018-03-01

    Many weather forecast and climate models simulate warm surface air temperature (T2m) biases over midlatitude continents during the summertime, especially over the Great Plains. We present here one of a series of papers from a multimodel intercomparison project (CAUSES: Cloud Above the United States and Errors at the Surface), which aims to evaluate the role of cloud, radiation, and precipitation biases in contributing to the T2m bias using a short-term hindcast approach during the spring and summer of 2011. Observations are mainly from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains sites. The present study examines the contributions of surface energy budget errors. All participating models simulate too much net shortwave and longwave fluxes at the surface but with no consistent mean bias sign in turbulent fluxes over the Central United States and Southern Great Plains. Nevertheless, biases in the net shortwave and downward longwave fluxes as well as surface evaporative fraction (EF) are contributors to T2m bias. Radiation biases are largely affected by cloud simulations, while EF bias is largely affected by soil moisture modulated by seasonal accumulated precipitation and evaporation. An approximate equation based upon the surface energy budget is derived to further quantify the magnitudes of radiation and EF contributions to T2m bias. Our analysis ascribes that a large EF underestimate is the dominant source of error in all models with a large positive temperature bias, whereas an EF overestimate compensates for an excess of absorbed shortwave radiation in nearly all the models with the smallest temperature bias.

  13. Increased temperature and altered summer precipitation have differential effects on biological soil crusts in a dryland ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shannon L.; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Carney, Travis D.; Housman, David C.; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Belnap, Jayne

    2012-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common and ecologically important members of dryland ecosystems worldwide, where they stabilize soil surfaces and contribute newly fixed C and N to soils. To test the impacts of predicted climate change scenarios on biocrusts in a dryland ecosystem, the effects of a 2–3 °C increase in soil temperature and an increased frequency of smaller summer precipitation events were examined in a large, replicated field study conducted in the cold desert of the Colorado Plateau, USA. Surface soil biomass (DNA concentration), photosynthetically active cyanobacterial biomass (chlorophyll a concentration), cyanobacterial abundance (quantitative PCR assay), and bacterial community composition (16S rRNA gene sequencing) were monitored seasonally over 2 years. Soil microbial biomass and bacterial community composition were highly stratified between the 0–2 cm depth biocrusts and 5–10 cm depth soil beneath the biocrusts. The increase in temperature did not have a detectable effect on any of the measured parameters over 2 years. However, after the second summer of altered summer precipitation pattern, significant declines occurred in the surface soil biomass (avg. DNA concentration declined 38%), photosynthetic cyanobacterial biomass (avg. chlorophyll a concentration declined 78%), cyanobacterial abundance (avg. gene copies g−1 soil declined 95%), and proportion of Cyanobacteria in the biocrust bacterial community (avg. representation in sequence libraries declined 85%). Biocrusts are important contributors to soil stability, soil C and N stores, and plant performance, and the loss or reduction of biocrusts under an altered precipitation pattern associated with climate change could contribute significantly to lower soil fertility and increased erosion and dust production in dryland ecosystems at a regional scale.

  14. Ion-ion dynamic structure factor, acoustic modes, and equation of state of two-temperature warm dense aluminum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbour, L.; Förster, G. D.; Dharma-wardana, M. W. C.; Lewis, Laurent J.

    2018-04-01

    The ion-ion dynamical structure factor and the equation of state of warm dense aluminum in a two-temperature quasiequilibrium state, with the electron temperature higher than the ion temperature, are investigated using molecular-dynamics simulations based on ion-ion pair potentials constructed from a neutral pseudoatom model. Such pair potentials based on density functional theory are parameter-free and depend directly on the electron temperature and indirectly on the ion temperature, enabling efficient computation of two-temperature properties. Comparison with ab initio simulations and with other average-atom calculations for equilibrium aluminum shows good agreement, justifying a study of quasiequilibrium situations. Analyzing the van Hove function, we find that ion-ion correlations vanish in a time significantly smaller than the electron-ion relaxation time so that dynamical properties have a physical meaning for the quasiequilibrium state. A significant increase in the speed of sound is predicted from the modification of the dispersion relation of the ion acoustic mode as the electron temperature is increased. The two-temperature equation of state including the free energy, internal energy, and pressure is also presented.

  15. Does the correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures rule out any significant global warming from greenhouse gases?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laut, Peter; Gundermann, Jesper

    1998-01-01

    Since the discovery of a striking correlation between solar cycle lengths and Northern Hemisphere land temperatures there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse...... gases. The present analysis shows that a similar degree of correlation is obtained when testing the solar data against a couple of fictitious temperature series representing different global warming trends. Therefore, the correlation cannot be used to estimate the magnitude of a possible contribution...... to global warming from human activities, nor to rule out a sizable contribution from that source....

  16. A simple model for variations in global mean temperature: implications for decadal variability, the global warming hiatus, and recent temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, S.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) has steadily risen since the mid-19th century, and at the same time experienced significant variations on interannual and decadal timescales. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain such variations, ranging from the Pacific decadal oscillation to volcanic eruptions. In this study, we construct a simple, physically-based model of GMST variations that incorporates greenhouse gas emissions, ENSO forcing, and stratospheric sulfate aerosols. The model closely reproduces the history of GMST changes since 1880 with the mean squared error about 0.05°C for the past 60 years, smaller than the typical error of GMST observations (see the figure attached). It also accurately captures decadal GMST variations, including the global warming hiatus in the early 21stcentury. This model can be used to understand the causes of the observed GMST variations and requires little computational resource. Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity was the major cause of the recent global warming hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise since 2014 is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014-2016 El Niño conditions in addition to the continuing background global warming trend. The model can be also used to make predictions for next-year GMST in the short term, and future climate projections in the long term. We will also discuss the implications of this simple model for paleoclimate reconstructions and GCM performance evaluations.

  17. A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme hot summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Otomi, Yuriko; Nakamura, Tetsu

    2013-04-01

    In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

  18. A possible cause of the AO polarity reversal from winter to summer in 2010 and its relation to hemispheric extreme summer weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otomi, Yuriko; Tachibana, Yoshihiro; Nakamura, Tetsu

    2013-04-01

    In 2010, the Northern Hemisphere, in particular Russia and Japan, experienced an abnormally hot summer characterized by record-breaking warm temperatures and associated with a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), that is, low pressure in the Arctic and high pressure in the midlatitudes. In contrast, the AO index the previous winter and spring (2009/2010) was record-breaking negative. The AO polarity reversal that began in summer 2010 can explain the abnormally hot summer. The winter sea surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic Ocean showed a tripolar anomaly pattern—warm SST anomalies over the tropics and high latitudes and cold SST anomalies over the midlatitudes—under the influence of the negative AO. The warm SST anomalies continued into summer 2010 because of the large oceanic heat capacity. A model simulation strongly suggested that the AO-related summertime North Atlantic oceanic warm temperature anomalies remotely caused blocking highs to form over Europe, which amplified the positive summertime AO. Thus, a possible cause of the AO polarity reversal might be the "memory" of the negative winter AO in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting an interseasonal linkage of the AO in which the oceanic memory of a wintertime negative AO induces a positive AO in the following summer. Understanding of this interseasonal linkage may aid in the long-term prediction of such abnormal summer events.

  19. Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H.R.; Hollister, Robert D.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations...... of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups...... to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed...

  20. Enhanced seasonal predictability of the summer mean temperature in Central Europe favored by new dominant weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, P.

    2018-04-01

    In this study two complementary approaches have been combined to estimate the reliability of the data-driven seasonal predictability of the meteorological summer mean temperature (T_{JJA}) over Europe. The developed model is based on linear regressions and uses early season predictors to estimate the target value T_{JJA}. We found for the Potsdam (Germany) climate station that the monthly standard deviations (σ) from January to April and the temperature mean ( m) in April are good predictors to describe T_{JJA} after 1990. However, before 1990 the model failed. The core region where this model works is the north-eastern part of Central Europe. We also analyzed long-term trends of monthly Hess/Brezowsky weather types as possible causes of the dynamical changes. In spring, a significant increase of the occurrences for two opposite weather patterns was found: Zonal Ridge across Central Europe (BM) and Trough over Central Europe (TRM). Both currently make up about 30% of the total alternating weather systems over Europe. Other weather types are predominantly decreasing or their trends are not significant. Thus, the predictability may be attributed to these two weather types where the difference between the two Z500 composite patterns is large. This also applies to the north-eastern part of Central Europe. Finally, the detected enhanced seasonal predictability over Europe is alarming, because severe side effects may occur. One of these are more frequent climate extremes in summer half-year.

  1. The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

    2017-08-01

    The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

  2. Very low electron temperature in warm dense matter formed by focused picosecond soft x-ray laser pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishino, Masahiko; Hasegawa, Noboru; Nishikino, Masaharu; Kawachi, Tetsuya; Yamagiwa, Mitsuru; Pikuz, Tatiana; Skobelev, Igor; Faenov, Anatoly; Inogamov, Nail

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the optical emission from the ablating surfaces induced by the irradiations of soft x-ray laser (SXRL) pulses with the aim of estimation of the maximum electron temperature. No emission signal in the spectral range of 400–800 nm could be observed despite the formation of damage structures on the target surfaces. Hence, we estimated an upper limit for the electron temperature of 0.4–0.7 eV for the process duration of 100–1000 ps. Our results imply that the ablation and/or surface modification by the SXRL is not accompanied by plasma formation but is induced by thermo-mechanical pressure, which is so called a spallative ablation. This spallative ablation process occurs in the low electron temperature region of a non-equilibrium state of warm dense matter

  3. Effect of Temperature Rising on the Stygobitic Crustacean Species Diacyclops belgicus: Does Global Warming Affect Groundwater Populations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiziana Di Lorenzo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The average global temperature is predicted to increase by 3 °C by the end of this century due to human-induced climate change. The overall metabolism of the aquatic biota will be directly affected by rising temperatures and associated changes. Since thermal stability is a characteristic of groundwater ecosystems, global warming is expected to have a profound effect on the groundwater fauna. The prediction that stygobitic (obligate groundwater dweller species are vulnerable to climate change includes assumptions about metabolic effects that can only be tested by comparisons across a thermal gradient. To this end, we investigated the effects of two different thermal regimes on the metabolism of the stygobitic copepod species Diacyclops belgicus (Kiefer, 1936. We measured the individual-based oxygen consumption of this species as a proxy of possible metabolic reactions to temperature rising from 14 to 17 °C. We used a sealed glass microplate equipped with planar oxygen sensor spots with optical isolation glued onto the bottom of 80-μL wells integrated with a 24-channel fluorescence-based respirometry system. The tests have provided controversial results according to which the D. belgicus populations should be prudently considered at risk under a global warming scenario.

  4. Impacts of Ocean Warming on China's Fisheries Catches: An Application of “Mean Temperature of the Catch” Concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Liang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Ocean warming can strongly impact marine fisheries; notably, it can cause the “mean temperature of the catch” (MTC to increase, an indicator of the tropicalization of fisheries catches. In this contribution, we explore MTC changes in three large marine ecosystems (LMEs along China's coasts, i.e., the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea LMEs, and their relationships to shifts of sea surface temperature (SST. The results show that, while the MTCs began to increase in 1962 in the East China Sea and in 1968 in the Yellow Sea, there was no detectable increase in the South China Sea. There also was a strong relationship between MTC and SST in the Yellow and East China Seas from 1950 to 2010, especially when taking a 3-year time-lag into account. The lack of change of the MTC in the South China Sea is attributed to the relatively small increase in SST over the time period considered, and the fact that the MTC of tropical ecosystems such as the South China Sea is not predicted to increase in the first place, given that their fauna cannot be replaced by another, adapted to higher temperature. Overall, these results suggest that ocean warming is already having an impact on China's marine fisheries, and that policies to curtail greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed to minimize the increase of these impacts on fisheries.

  5. Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerenson, Travis; Tebaldi, Claudia; Sanderson, Ben; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2018-03-01

    Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °C in a special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten extreme climate indices, from definitions created by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, to determine if the three different scenarios cause different intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation or temperature over the 21st century. After computing the indices, statistical tests were used to determine if significant changes affect their characteristics. It was found that at the grid point level significant changes emerge in all scenarios, for nearly all indices. The temperature indices show widespread significant change, while the behavior of precipitation indices reflects the larger role that internal variability plays, even by the end of the century. Nonetheless differences can be assessed, in substantial measure for many of these indices: changes in nearly all indices have a strong correlation to global mean temperature, so that scenarios and times with greater temperature change experience greater index changes for many regions. This is particularly true of the temperature-related indices, but can be assessed for some regions also for the indices related to precipitation intensity. These results thus show that even for scenarios that are separated by only half of a degree in global average temperature, the statistics of extremes are significantly different.

  6. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...

  7. Water temperature profiles for reaches of the Raging River during summer baseflow, King County, western Washington, July 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gendaszek, Andrew S.; Opatz, Chad C.

    2016-03-22

    Re-introducing wood into rivers where it was historically removed is one approach to improving habitat conditions in rivers of the Pacific Northwest. The Raging River drainage basin, which flows into the Snoqualmie River at Fall City, western Washington, was largely logged during the 20th century and wood was removed from its channel. To improve habitat conditions for several species of anadromous salmonids that spawn and rear in the Raging River, King County Department of Transportation placed untethered log jams in a 250-meter reach where wood was historically removed. The U.S. Geological Survey measured longitudinal profiles of near-streambed temperature during summer baseflow along 1,026 meters of channel upstream, downstream, and within the area of wood placements. These measurements were part of an effort by King County to monitor the geomorphic and biological responses to these wood placements. Near-streambed temperatures averaged over about 1-meter intervals were measured with a fiber‑optic distributed temperature sensor every 30 minutes for 7 days between July 7 and 13, 2015. Vertical temperature profiles were measured coincident with the longitudinal temperature profile at four locations at 0 centimeters (cm) (at the streambed), and 35 and 70 cm beneath the streambed to document thermal dynamics of the hyporheic zone and surface water in the study reach.

  8. X-ray Thomson scattering measurement of temperature in warm dense carbon

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Falk, Kateřina; Fryer, C.L.; Gamboa, E. J.; Greeff, C.W.; Johns, H.M.; Schmidt, D.W.; Šmíd, Michal; Benage, J. F.; Montgomery, D. S.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 57, č. 1 (2017), s. 47-53 ISSN 0741-3335 R&D Projects: GA MŠk EF15_008/0000162; GA MŠk LQ1606 Grant - others:ELI Beamlines(XE) CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/15_008/0000162 Institutional support: RVO:68378271 Keywords : warm dense matter * equation of state * laser plasmas * dynamic compression * shock physics Subject RIV: BL - Plasma and Gas Discharge Physics OBOR OECD: Fluids and plasma physics (including surface physics) Impact factor: 2.392, year: 2016

  9. Northern European summer temperature variations over the Common Era from integrated tree-ring density records

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Esper, J.; Düthorn, E.; Krusic, P. J.; Timonen, M.; Büntgen, Ulf

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 5 (2014), s. 487-494 ISSN 0267-8179 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : dendrochronology * Finland * late holocene * Sweden * temperature reconstruction Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.357, year: 2014

  10. Using soil moisture forecasts for sub-seasonal summer temperature predictions in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, René; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-12-01

    Soil moisture exhibits outstanding memory characteristics and plays a key role within the climate system. Especially through its impacts on the evapotranspiration of soils and plants, it may influence the land energy balance and therefore surface temperature. These attributes make soil moisture an important variable in the context of weather and climate forecasting. In this study we investigate the value of (initial) soil moisture information for sub-seasonal temperature forecasts. For this purpose we employ a simple water balance model to infer soil moisture from streamflow observations in 400 catchments across Europe. Running this model with forecasted atmospheric forcing, we derive soil moisture forecasts, which we then translate into temperature forecasts using simple linear relationships. The resulting temperature forecasts show skill beyond climatology up to 2 weeks in most of the considered catchments. Even if forecasting skills are rather small at longer lead times with significant skill only in some catchments at lead times of 3 and 4 weeks, this soil moisture-based approach shows local improvements compared to the monthly European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperature forecasts at these lead times. For both products (soil moisture-only forecast and ECMWF forecast), we find comparable or better forecast performance in the case of extreme events, especially at long lead times. Even though a product based on soil moisture information alone is not of practical relevance, our results indicate that soil moisture (memory) is a potentially valuable contributor to temperature forecast skill. Investigating the underlying soil moisture of the ECMWF forecasts we find good agreement with the simple model forecasts, especially at longer lead times. Analyzing the drivers of the temperature forecast skills we find that they are mainly controlled by the strengths of (1) the soil moisture-temperature coupling and (2) the soil moisture memory. We

  11. Passive heating following the prematch warm-up in soccer: examining the time-course of changes in muscle temperature and contractile function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Paul W M; Cross, Rebecca; Lovell, Ric

    2015-12-01

    This study examined changes in muscle temperature, electrically evoked muscle contractile properties, and voluntary power before and after a soccer specific active warm-up and subsequent rest period. Ten amateur soccer players performed two experimental sessions that involved performance of a modified FIFA 11+ soccer specific warm-up, followed by a 12.5-min rest period where participants were required to wear either normal clothing or a passive electrical heating garment was applied to the upper thigh muscles. Assessments around the warm-up and cool-down included measures of maximal torque, rate of torque development, muscle temperature (Tm), and electrically evoked measures of quadriceps contractile function. Tm was increased after the warm-up by 3.2 ± 0.7°C (P warm-up between 20% and 30% (P warm-up did not effect variables measured. While Tm was reduced by 1.4 ± 0.4°C after the rest period (P warm-up levels. Voluntary and evoked rate of torque development remained elevated from pre warm-up levels at the end of the cool-down (P warm-up elevated muscle temperature by 3.2°C and was associated with concomitant increases of between 20% and 30% in voluntary rate of torque development, which seems explained by elevations in rate-dependent measures of intrinsic muscle contractile function. Application of a passive heating garment did not attenuate declines in muscle temperature during a 12.5-min rest period. © 2015 The Authors. Physiological Reports published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American Physiological Society and The Physiological Society.

  12. Impact of soil moisture initialization on boreal summer subseasonal forecasts: mid-latitude surface air temperature and heat wave events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Eunkyo; Lee, Myong-In; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Koster, Randal D.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kim, Hye-Mi; Kim, Daehyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Kim, Hyun-Kyung; MacLachlan, Craig; Scaife, Adam A.

    2018-05-01

    This study uses a global land-atmosphere coupled model, the land-atmosphere component of the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5, to quantify the degree to which soil moisture initialization could potentially enhance boreal summer surface air temperature forecast skill. Two sets of hindcast experiments are performed by prescribing the observed sea surface temperature as the boundary condition for a 15-year period (1996-2010). In one set of the hindcast experiments (noINIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are randomly taken from a long-term simulation. In the other set (INIT), the initial soil moisture conditions are taken from an observation-driven offline Land Surface Model (LSM) simulation. The soil moisture conditions from the offline LSM simulation are calibrated using the forecast model statistics to minimize the inconsistency between the LSM and the land-atmosphere coupled model in their mean and variability. Results show a higher boreal summer surface air temperature prediction skill in INIT than in noINIT, demonstrating the potential benefit from an accurate soil moisture initialization. The forecast skill enhancement appears especially in the areas in which the evaporative fraction—the ratio of surface latent heat flux to net surface incoming radiation—is sensitive to soil moisture amount. These areas lie in the transitional regime between humid and arid climates. Examination of the extreme 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat wave events reveal that the regionally anomalous soil moisture conditions during the events played an important role in maintaining the stationary circulation anomalies, especially those near the surface.

  13. Recrystallization kinetics of warm-rolled tungsten in the temperature range 1150-1350 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, A.; Juul Jensen, D.; Luo, G.-N.; Pantleon, W.

    2014-12-01

    Pure tungsten is a potential candidate material for the plasma-facing first wall and the divertor of fusion reactors. Both parts have to withstand high temperatures during service. This will alter the microstructure of the material by recovery, recrystallization and grain growth and will cause degradation in material properties as a loss in mechanical strength and embrittlement. The thermal stability of a pure tungsten plate warm-rolled to 67% thickness reduction was investigated by long-term isothermal annealing in the temperature range between 1150 °C and 1350 °C up to 2200 h. Changes in the mechanical properties during annealing are quantified by Vickers hardness measurements. They are described concisely by classical kinetic models for recovery and recrystallization. The observed time spans for recrystallization and the obtained value for the activation energy of the recrystallization process indicate a sufficient thermal stability of the tungsten plate during operation below 1075 °C.

  14. Recrystallization kinetics of warm-rolled tungsten in the temperature range 1150–1350 °C

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfonso, A., E-mail: aalz@dtu.dk [Section of Materials and Surface Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (China); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (Denmark); Juul Jensen, D. [Danish-Chinese Center for Nanometals, Section of Materials Science and Advanced Characterization, Department of Wind Energy, Technical University of Denmark, Risø Campus, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (China); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (Denmark); Luo, G.-N. [Fusion Reactor Materials Science and Technology Division, Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 230031 Hefei, Anhui (China); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (China); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (Denmark); Pantleon, W. [Section of Materials and Surface Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Association EURATOM-DTU (Denmark); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (China); Sino-Danish Center for Education and Research (Denmark)

    2014-12-15

    Pure tungsten is a potential candidate material for the plasma-facing first wall and the divertor of fusion reactors. Both parts have to withstand high temperatures during service. This will alter the microstructure of the material by recovery, recrystallization and grain growth and will cause degradation in material properties as a loss in mechanical strength and embrittlement. The thermal stability of a pure tungsten plate warm-rolled to 67% thickness reduction was investigated by long-term isothermal annealing in the temperature range between 1150 °C and 1350 °C up to 2200 h. Changes in the mechanical properties during annealing are quantified by Vickers hardness measurements. They are described concisely by classical kinetic models for recovery and recrystallization. The observed time spans for recrystallization and the obtained value for the activation energy of the recrystallization process indicate a sufficient thermal stability of the tungsten plate during operation below 1075 °C.

  15. EXCITATION TEMPERATURE OF THE WARM NEUTRAL MEDIUM AS A NEW PROBE OF THE Lyα RADIATION FIELD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, Claire E.; Lindner, Robert R.; Stanimirović, Snežana; Pingel, Nickolas M.; Lawrence, Allen; Babler, Brian L. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Goss, W. M.; Jencson, Jacob [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box O, 1003 Lopezville, Socorro, NM 87801 (United States); Heiles, Carl [Radio Astronomy Laboratory, UC Berkeley, 601 Campbell Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Dickey, John [University of Tasmania, School of Maths and Physics, Private Bag 37, Hobart, TAS 7001 (Australia); Hennebelle, Patrick, E-mail: cmurray@astro.wisc.edu [Laboratoire AIM, Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp—CNRS—Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France)

    2014-02-01

    We use the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array to conduct a high-sensitivity survey of neutral hydrogen (H I) absorption in the Milky Way. In combination with corresponding H I emission spectra obtained mostly with the Arecibo Observatory, we detect a widespread warm neutral medium component with excitation temperature 〈T{sub s}〉=7200{sub −1200}{sup +1800} K (68% confidence). This temperature lies above theoretical predictions based on collisional excitation alone, implying that Lyα scattering, the most probable additional source of excitation, is more important in the interstellar medium (ISM) than previously assumed. Our results demonstrate that H I absorption can be used to constrain the Lyα radiation field, a critical quantity for studying the energy balance in the ISM and intergalactic medium yet notoriously difficult to model because of its complicated radiative transfer, in and around galaxies nearby and at high redshift.

  16. Recrystallization kinetics of warm-rolled tungsten in the temperature range 1150–1350 °C

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfonso, A.; Juul Jensen, D.; Luo, G.-N.; Pantleon, W.

    2014-01-01

    Pure tungsten is a potential candidate material for the plasma-facing first wall and the divertor of fusion reactors. Both parts have to withstand high temperatures during service. This will alter the microstructure of the material by recovery, recrystallization and grain growth and will cause degradation in material properties as a loss in mechanical strength and embrittlement. The thermal stability of a pure tungsten plate warm-rolled to 67% thickness reduction was investigated by long-term isothermal annealing in the temperature range between 1150 °C and 1350 °C up to 2200 h. Changes in the mechanical properties during annealing are quantified by Vickers hardness measurements. They are described concisely by classical kinetic models for recovery and recrystallization. The observed time spans for recrystallization and the obtained value for the activation energy of the recrystallization process indicate a sufficient thermal stability of the tungsten plate during operation below 1075 °C

  17. Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenoir, Jonathan; Graae, Bente; Aarrestad, Per

    2013-01-01

    -change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine-grained thermal variability across a 2500-km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community...... data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within community-inferred temperatures: CiT). We...... temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46-72% of variation in LmT and 92-96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing-season CiT range within 1-km(2) units peaked at 60-65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0...

  18. Evidence of Climate Change (Global Warming) and Temperature Increases in Arctic Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Kojo Wu Aikins

    2012-01-01

    This paper contributes to the debate on the proximate causes of climate change. Also, it discusses the impact of the global temperature increases since the beginning of the twentieth century and the effectiveness of climate change models in isolating the primary cause (anthropogenic influences or natural variability in temperature) of the observed temperature increases that occurred within this period. The paper argues that if climate scientist and policymakers ignore the...

  19. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  20. Investigating temperature breaks in the summer fruit export cold chain: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinri W. Freiboth

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available There is concern in the South African fruit industry that a large amount of fruit and money is lost every season due to breaks in the fruit export cold chain. The possibility of a large percentage of losses in a significant sector of the economy warranted further investigation. This article attempted to highlight some of the possible problem areas in the cold chain, from the cold store to the port, by analysing historic temperature data from different fruit export supply chains of apples, pears and grapes. In addition, a trial shipment of apples was used to investigate temperature variation between different pallets in the same container. This research has added value to the South African fruit industry by identifying the need to improve operational procedures in the cold chain.

  1. Mean and extreme temperatures in a warming climate: EURO CORDEX and WRF regional climate high-resolution projections for Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Lima, Daniela C. A.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2018-02-01

    Large temperature spatio-temporal gradients are a common feature of Mediterranean climates. The Portuguese complex topography and coastlines enhances such features, and in a small region large temperature gradients with high interannual variability is detected. In this study, the EURO-CORDEX high-resolution regional climate simulations (0.11° and 0.44° resolutions) are used to investigate the maximum and minimum temperature projections across the twenty-first century according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. An additional WRF simulation with even higher resolution (9 km) for RCP8.5 scenario is also examined. All simulations for the historical period (1971-2000) are evaluated against the available station observations and the EURO-CORDEX model results are ranked in order to build multi-model ensembles. In present climate models are able to reproduce the main topography/coast related temperature gradients. Although there are discernible differences between models, most present a cold bias. The multi-model ensembles improve the overall representation of the temperature. The ensembles project a significant increase of the maximum and minimum temperatures in all seasons and scenarios. Maximum increments of 8 °C in summer and autumn and between 2 and 4 °C in winter and spring are projected in RCP8.5. The temperature distributions for all models show a significant increase in the upper tails of the PDFs. In RCP8.5 more than half of the extended summer (MJJAS) has maximum temperatures exceeding the historical 90th percentile and, on average, 60 tropical nights are projected for the end of the century, whilst there are only 7 tropical nights in the historical period. Conversely, the number of cold days almost disappears. The yearly average number of heat waves increases by seven to ninefold by 2100 and the most frequent length rises from 5 to 22 days throughout the twenty-first century. 5% of the longest events will last for more than one month. The amplitude is overwhelming

  2. Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Perron, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    This article offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the

  3. Negative impacts of high temperatures on growth of black spruce forests intensify with the anticipated climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardin, Martin P; Hogg, Edward H; Bernier, Pierre Y; Kurz, Werner A; Guo, Xiao Jing; Cyr, Guillaume

    2016-02-01

    An increasing number of studies conclude that water limitations and heat stress may hinder the capacity of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) trees, a dominant species of Canada's boreal forests, to grow and assimilate atmospheric carbon. However, there is currently no scientific consensus on the future of these forests over the next century in the context of widespread climate warming. The large spatial extent of black spruce forests across the Canadian boreal forest and associated variability in climate, demography, and site conditions pose challenges for projecting future climate change responses. Here we provide an evaluation of the impacts of climate warming and drying, as well as increasing [CO2 ], on the aboveground productivity of black spruce forests across Canada south of 60°N for the period 1971 to 2100. We use a new extensive network of tree-ring data obtained from Canada's National Forest Inventory, spatially explicit simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and its drivers, and multivariate statistical modeling. We found that soil water availability is a significant driver of black spruce interannual variability in productivity across broad areas of the western to eastern Canadian boreal forest. Interannual variability in productivity was also found to be driven by autotrophic respiration in the warmest regions. In most regions, the impacts of soil water availability and respiration on interannual variability in productivity occurred during the phase of carbohydrate accumulation the year preceding tree-ring formation. Results from projections suggest an increase in the importance of soil water availability and respiration as limiting factors on NPP over the next century due to warming, but this response may vary to the extent that other factors such as carbon dioxide fertilization, and respiration acclimation to high temperature, contribute to dampening these limitations. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Reproduced with

  4. The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland von Glasow

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

  5. Urediospores of Puccinia spp. and other rusts are warm-temperature ice nucleators and harbor ice nucleation active bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, C. E.; Sands, D. C.; Glaux, C.; Samsatly, J.; Asaad, S.; Moukahel, A. R.; Gonçalves, F. L. T.; Bigg, E. K.

    2012-10-01

    In light of various features of the biology of the rust fungi and of the epidemiology of the plant diseases they cause that illustrate the important role of rainfall in their life history, we have characterized the ice nucleation activity (INA) of the aerially disseminated spores (urediospores) of this group of fungi. Urediospores of this obligate plant parasite were collected from natural infections from 7 species of weeds in France, from coffee in Brazil and from field and greenhouse-grown wheat in France, the USA, Turkey and Syria. Immersion freezing was used to determine freezing onset temperatures and the abundance of ice nuclei in suspensions of washed spores. Microbiological analyses of spores and subsequent tests of the ice nucleation activity of the bacteria associated with spores were deployed to quantify the contribution of bacteria to the ice nucleation activity of the spores. All samples of spores were ice nucleation active having freezing onset temperatures as warm as -4 °C. Spores in most of the samples carried cells of ice nucleation-active strains of the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae (at rates of less than 1 bacterial cell per 100 urediospores), but bacterial INA accounted for only a small fraction of the INA observed in spore suspensions. Changes in the INA of spore suspensions after treatment with lysozyme suggest that the INA of urediospores involves a polysaccharide. Based on data from the literature, we have estimated the concentrations of urediospores in air at cloud height and in rainfall. These quantities are very similar to those reported for other biological ice nucleators in these same substrates. We suggest that air sampling techniques have ignored the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric concentrations that occur under conditions propitious for precipitation that could increase their local abundance intermittently. Nevertheless, we propose that the relative low abundance of warm-temperature biological ice nucleators in the

  6. Limited tolerance by insects to high temperatures across tropical elevational gradients and the implications of global warming for extinction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Robledo, Carlos; Kuprewicz, Erin K; Staines, Charles L; Erwin, Terry L; Kress, W John

    2016-01-19

    The critical thermal maximum (CTmax), the temperature at which motor control is lost in animals, has the potential to determine if species will tolerate global warming. For insects, tolerance to high temperatures decreases with latitude, suggesting that similar patterns may exist along elevational gradients as well. This study explored how CTmax varies among species and populations of a group of diverse tropical insect herbivores, the rolled-leaf beetles, across both broad and narrow elevational gradients. Data from 6,948 field observations and 8,700 museum specimens were used to map the elevational distributions of rolled-leaf beetles on two mountains in Costa Rica. CTmax was determined for 1,252 individual beetles representing all populations across the gradients. Initial morphological identifications suggested a total of 26 species with populations at different elevations displaying contrasting upper thermal limits. However, compared with morphological identifications, DNA barcodes (cytochrome oxidase I) revealed significant cryptic species diversity. DNA barcodes identified 42 species and haplotypes across 11 species complexes. These 42 species displayed much narrower elevational distributions and values of CTmax than the 26 morphologically defined species. In general, species found at middle elevations and on mountaintops are less tolerant to high temperatures than species restricted to lowland habitats. Species with broad elevational distributions display high CTmax throughout their ranges. We found no significant phylogenetic signal in CTmax, geography, or elevational range. The narrow variance in CTmax values for most rolled-leaf beetles, especially high-elevation species, suggests that the risk of extinction of insects may be substantial under some projected rates of global warming.

  7. Is microevolution the only emergency exit in a warming world? Temperature influences egg laying but not its underlying mechanisms in great tits

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caro, S.P.; Schaper, S.V.; Dawson, A.; Sharp, P.; Gienapp, P.; Visser, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Many bird species have advanced their seasonal timing in response to global warming, but we still know little about the causal effect of temperature. We carried out experiments in climate-controlled aviaries to investigate how temperature affects luteinizing hormone, prolactin, gonadal development,

  8. Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonelli, Giovanni; Coppola, Anna; Salvatore, Maria Cristina; Baroni, Carlo; Battipaglia, Giovanna; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco; Borghetti, Marco; Conte, Emanuele; Tognetti, Roberto; Marchetti, Marco; Lombardi, Fabio; Brunetti, Michele; Maugeri, Maurizio; Pelfini, Manuela; Cherubini, Paolo; Provenzale, Antonello; Maggi, Valter

    2017-11-01

    A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD) and broadleaves (only RW). Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts) against each species-specific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC) chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series). We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September) temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months). The MXD sensitivity to August-September (AS) temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions) in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates divergence may also be due to the precipitation

  9. Climate signals in a multispecies tree-ring network from central and southern Italy and reconstruction of the late summer temperatures since the early 1700s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Leonelli

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A first assessment of the main climatic drivers that modulate the tree-ring width (RW and maximum latewood density (MXD along the Italian Peninsula and northeastern Sicily was performed using 27 forest sites, which include conifers (RW and MXD and broadleaves (only RW. Tree-ring data were compared using the correlation analysis of the monthly and seasonal variables of temperature, precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI, used to characterize meteorological droughts against each species-specific site chronology and against the highly sensitive to climate (HSTC chronologies (based on selected indexed individual series. We find that climate signals in conifer MXD are stronger and more stable over time than those in conifer and broadleaf RW. In particular, conifer MXD variability is directly influenced by the late summer (August, September temperature and is inversely influenced by the summer precipitation and droughts (SPI at a timescale of 3 months. The MXD sensitivity to August–September (AS temperature and to summer drought is mainly driven by the latitudinal gradient of summer precipitation amounts, with sites in the northern Apennines showing stronger climate signals than sites in the south. Conifer RW is influenced by the temperature and drought of the previous summer, whereas broadleaf RW is more influenced by summer precipitation and drought of the current growing season. The reconstruction of the late summer temperatures for the Italian Peninsula for the past 300 years, based on the HSTC chronology of conifer MXD, shows a stable model performance that underlines periods of climatic cooling (and likely also wetter conditions in 1699, 1740, 1814, 1914 and 1938, and follows well the variability of the instrumental record and of other tree-ring-based reconstructions in the region. Considering a 20-year low-pass-filtered series, the reconstructed temperature record consistently deviates < 1 °C from the instrumental

  10. Effects of Social Interaction and Warm Ambient Temperature on Brain Hyperthermia Induced by the Designer Drugs Methylone and MDPV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiyatkin, Eugene A; Kim, Albert H; Wakabayashi, Ken T; Baumann, Michael H; Shaham, Yavin

    2015-01-01

    3,4-Methylenedioxymethcathinone (methylone) and 3,4-methylenedioxypyrovalerone (MDPV) are new drugs of abuse that have gained worldwide popularity. These drugs are structurally similar to 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and share many of its physiological and behavioral effects in humans, including the development of hyperthermia during acute intoxication. Here, we examined the effects of methylone (1–9 mg/kg, s.c.) or MDPV (0.1–1.0 mg/kg, s.c.) on brain temperature homeostasis in rats maintained in a standard laboratory environment (single-housed in a quiet rest at 22 °C) and under conditions that model human drug use (social interaction and 29 °C ambient temperature). By simultaneously monitoring temperatures in the nucleus accumbens, temporal muscle, and facial skin, we assessed the effects of methylone and MDPV on intra-brain heat production and cutaneous vascular tone, two critical factors that control brain temperature responses. Both methylone and MDPV dose-dependently increased brain temperature, but even at high doses that induced robust locomotor activation, hyperthermia was modest in magnitude (up to ∼2 °C). Both drugs also induced dose-dependent peripheral vasoconstriction, which appears to be a primary mechanism determining the brain hyperthermic responses. In contrast to the powerful potentiation of MDMA-induced hyperthermia by social interaction and warm ambient temperature, such potentiation was absent for methylone and minimal for MDPV. Taken together, despite structural similarities to MDMA, exposure to methylone or MDPV under conditions commonly associated with human drug use does not lead to profound elevations in brain temperature and sustained vasoconstriction, two critical factors associated with MDMA toxicity. PMID:25074640

  11. Two-temperature equilibration in warm dense hydrogen measured with x-ray scattering from the LCLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Luke; High Energy Density Sciences Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    Understanding the properties of warm dense hydrogen plasmas is critical for modeling stellar and planetary interiors, as well as for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. Of central importance are the electron-ion collision and equilibration times that determine the microscopic properties in a high energy density state. Spectrally and angularly resolved x-ray scattering measurements from fs-laser heated hydrogen have resolved the picosecond evolution and energy relaxation from a two-temperature plasma towards thermodynamic equilibrium in the warm dense matter regime. The interaction of rapidly heated cryogenic hydrogen irradiated by a 400 nm, 5x1017 W/cm2 , 70 fs-laser is visualized with ultra-bright 5.5 kev x-ray pulses from the Linac Coherent Light (LCLS) source in 1 Hz repetition rate pump-probe setting. We demonstrate that the energy relaxation is faster than many classical binary collision theories that use ad hoc cutoff parameters used in the Landau-Spitzer determination of the Coulomb logarithm. This work was supported by the DOE Office of Science, Fusion Energy Science under contract No. SF00515 and supported under FWP 100182 and DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Materials Sciences and Engineering Division, contract DE-AC02-76SF00515.

  12. Temperature-dependent innate defense against the common cold virus limits viral replication at warm temperature in mouse airway cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foxman, Ellen F; Storer, James A; Fitzgerald, Megan E; Wasik, Bethany R; Hou, Lin; Zhao, Hongyu; Turner, Paul E; Pyle, Anna Marie; Iwasaki, Akiko

    2015-01-20

    Most isolates of human rhinovirus, the common cold virus, replicate more robustly at the cool temperatures found in the nasal cavity (33-35 °C) than at core body temperature (37 °C). To gain insight into the mechanism of temperature-dependent growth, we compared the transcriptional response of primary mouse airway epithelial cells infected with rhinovirus at 33 °C vs. 37 °C. Mouse airway cells infected with mouse-adapted rhinovirus 1B exhibited a striking enrichment in expression of antiviral defense response genes at 37 °C relative to 33 °C, which correlated with significantly higher expression levels of type I and type III IFN genes and IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs) at 37 °C. Temperature-dependent IFN induction in response to rhinovirus was dependent on the MAVS protein, a key signaling adaptor of the RIG-I-like receptors (RLRs). Stimulation of primary airway cells with the synthetic RLR ligand poly I:C led to greater IFN induction at 37 °C relative to 33 °C at early time points poststimulation and to a sustained increase in the induction of ISGs at 37 °C relative to 33 °C. Recombinant type I IFN also stimulated more robust induction of ISGs at 37 °C than at 33 °C. Genetic deficiency of MAVS or the type I IFN receptor in infected airway cells permitted higher levels of viral replication, particularly at 37 °C, and partially rescued the temperature-dependent growth phenotype. These findings demonstrate that in mouse airway cells, rhinovirus replicates preferentially at nasal cavity temperature due, in part, to a less efficient antiviral defense response of infected cells at cool temperature.

  13. Food restriction attenuates oxidative stress in brown adipose tissue of striped hamsters acclimated to a warm temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ji-Ying; Zhao, Xiao-Ya; Wang, Gui-Ying; Wang, Chun-Ming; Zhao, Zhi-Jun

    2016-05-01

    It has been suggested that the up-regulation of uncoupling proteins (UCPs) decreases reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, in which case there should be a negative relationship between UCPs expression and ROS levels. In this study, the effects of temperature and food restriction on ROS levels and metabolic rate, UCP1 mRNA expression and antioxidant levels were examined in the brown adipose tissue (BAT) of the striped hamsters (Cricetulus barabensis). The metabolic rate and food intake of hamsters which had been restricted to 80% of ad libitum food intake, and acclimated to a warm temperature (30°C), decreased significantly compared to a control group. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) levels were 42.9% lower in food restricted hamsters than in the control. Malonadialdehyde (MDA) levels of hamsters acclimated to 30°C that were fed ad libitum were significantly higher than those of the control group, but 60.1% lower than hamsters that had been acclimated to the same temperature but subject to food restriction. There were significantly positive correlations between H2O2 and, MDA levels, catalase activity, and total antioxidant capacity. Cytochrome c oxidase activity and UCP1 mRNA expression significantly decreased in food restricted hamsters compared to the control. These results suggest that warmer temperatures increase oxidative stress in BAT by causing the down-regulation of UCP1 expression and decreased antioxidant activity, but food restriction may attenuate the effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  15. Forced-Air Warming Provides Better Control of Body Temperature in Porcine Surgical Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian T. Dent

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Maintaining normothermia during porcine surgery is critical in ensuring subject welfare and recovery, reducing the risk of immune system compromise and surgical-site infection that can result from hypothermia. In humans, various methods of patient heating have been demonstrated to be useful, but less evaluation has been performed in techniques to prevent hypothermia perioperatively in pigs. Methods: We compared body temperature regulation during surgery before and after modification of the ambient temperature of the operating laboratories. Three different methods of heating were then compared; a standard circulating water mattress, a resistive fabric blanket, and a forced hot air system. The primary measure was percentage of temperature readings outside a specification range of 36.7–40.0 °C. Results: Tighter control of the ambient temperature while using a circulating water mattress reduced the occurrence of out-of-specification body temperature readings from 20.8% to 5.0%, with most of these the result of hypothermia. Use of a resistive fabric blanket further reduced out-of-specification readings to 1.5%, with a slight increase in the occurrence of hyperthermia. Use of a forced air system reduced out-of-specification readings to less 0.1%. Conclusions: Maintenance of normothermia perioperatively in pig can be improved by tightly controlling ambient temperatures. Use of a resistive blanket or a forced air system can lead to better control than a circulating water mattress, with the forced air system providing a faster response to temperature variations and less chance of hyperthermia.

  16. The Benefits of Using Dense Temperature Sensor Networks to Monitor Urban Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twine, T. E.; Snyder, P. K.; Kucharik, C. J.; Schatz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Urban heat islands (UHIs) occur when urban and suburban areas experience temperatures that are elevated relative to their rural surroundings because of differences in the fraction of gray and green infrastructure. Studies have shown that communities most at risk for impacts from climate-related disasters (i.e., lower median incomes, higher poverty, lower education, and minorities) tend to live in the hottest areas of cities. Development of adequate climate adaptation tools for cities relies on knowledge of how temperature varies across space and time. Traditionally, a city's urban heat island has been quantified using near-surface air temperature measurements from a few sites. This methodology assumes (1) that the UHI can be characterized by the difference in air temperature from a small number of points, and (2) that these few points represent the urban and rural signatures of the region. This methodology ignores the rich information that could be gained from measurements across the urban to rural transect. This transect could traverse elevations, water bodies, vegetation fraction, and other land surface properties. Two temperature sensor networks were designed and implemented in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN and Madison, WI metropolitan areas beginning in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Both networks use the same model sensor and record temperature every 15 minutes from ~150 sensors. Data from each network has produced new knowledge of how temperature varies diurnally and seasonally across the cities and how the UHI magnitude is influenced by weather phenomena (e.g., wind, snow cover, heat waves) and land surface characteristics such as proximity to inland lakes. However, the two metropolitan areas differ in size, population, structure, and orientation to water bodies. In addition, the sensor networks were established in very different manners. We describe these differences and present lessons learned from the design and ongoing efforts of these two dense networks

  17. Root growth and N dynamics in response to multi-year experimental warming, summer drought and elevated CO2 in a mixed heathland-grass ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndal, M. F.; Schmidt, I. K.; Kongstad, J.

    2013-01-01

    growth would be matched by an increase in root nutrient uptake of NH4+-N and NO3- -N. Root growth was significantly increased by elevated CO2. The roots, however, did not fully compensate for the higher growth with a similar increase in nitrogen uptake per unit of root mass. Hence the nitrogen...... concentration in roots was decreased in elevated CO2, whereas the biomass N pool was unchanged or even increased. The higher net root production in elevated CO2 might be a strategy for the plants to cope with increased nutrient demand leading to a long-term increase in N uptake on a whole-plant basis. Drought...... reduced grass root biomass and N uptake, especially when combined with warming, but CO2 was the most pronounced main factor effect. Several significant interactions of the treatments were found, which indicates that the responses were nonadditive and that changes to multiple environmental changes cannot...

  18. Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

    2018-01-01

    A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

  19. Warm ambient temperature decreases food intake in a simulated office setting: A pilot randomized controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Molly eBernhard

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: We hypothesized that exposure to temperatures above the thermoneutral zone would decrease food intake in young adults in a sedentary office environment over a 2-hour period. Methods: Participants wearing standardized clothing were randomized to perform routine office work in either within the thermoneutral zone, considered control (19-20°C, or above the thermoneutral zone considered warmer (26-27°C treatment in parallel-group design (n=11 and 9, respectively. Thermal images of the inner canthus of their eye and middle finger nail bed, representing proxies of core and peripheral temperatures, respectively, were taken at baseline, 1st, and 2nd hour during this lunchtime study. Relative heat dissipation was estimated as peripheral temperature. General linear models were conducted to examine the effects of thermal treatment the calories intake and potential mediation. Researchers conducted the trial registered as NCT02386891 at Clinicaltrials.gov during April- May 2014. Results: During the 2 hours stay in different ambient temperatures, the participants in the control conditions ate 99.5 kcal more than those in the warmer conditions; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Female participants ate about 350 kcal less than the male participants (P=0.024 in both groups and there was no significant association between calories intake and participant’s BMI. After controlling for thermal treatment, gender and BMI, the participant’s peripheral temperature was significantly associated with calories intake (p=0.002, suggesting a mediating effect. Specifically, for every 1°C increase in peripheral temperature indicating reduced heat dissipation, participants ate 85.9 kcal less food. Conclusions: This pilot study provided preliminary evidence of effects of thermal environment on food intake and the decreased food intake in the experimental (warmer environment is potentially mediated through thermoregulatory mechanisms.

  20. Warm Ambient Temperature Decreases Food Intake in a Simulated Office Setting: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhard, Molly C; Li, Peng; Allison, David B; Gohlke, Julia M

    2015-01-01

    We hypothesized that exposure to temperatures above the thermoneutral zone (TNZ) would decrease food intake in young adults in a sedentary office environment over a 2-h period. Participants wearing standardized clothing were randomized to perform routine office work in the TNZ, considered control (19-20°C), or above the TNZ considered warmer (26-27°C) using a parallel-group design (n = 11 and 9, respectively). Thermal images of the inner canthus of their eye and middle finger nail bed, representing proxies of core and peripheral temperatures, respectively, were taken at baseline, first, and second hour during this lunchtime study. Heat dissipation was estimated using peripheral temperature. General linear models were built to examine the effects of thermal treatment on caloric intake and potential mediation by heat dissipation. Researchers conducted the trial registered as NCT02386891 at Clinicaltrials.gov during April to May 2014. During the 2-h stay in different ambient temperatures, the participants in the control conditions ate 99.5 kcal more than those in the warmer conditions; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Female participants ate about 350 kcal less than the male participants (p = 0.024) in both groups and there was no significant association between caloric intake and participant's body mass index (BMI). After controlling for thermal treatment, gender and BMI, the participant's peripheral temperature was significantly associated with caloric intake (p = 0.002), suggesting a mediating effect. Specifically, for every 1°C increase in peripheral temperature suggesting increased heat dissipation, participants ate 85.9 kcal less food. This pilot study provided preliminary evidence of effects of thermal environment on food intake. It suggests that decreased food intake in the experimental (warmer) environment is potentially mediated through thermoregulatory mechanisms.

  1. Study of nickel hydrogen battery discharge performance after charge and stand at warm temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donley, S.W.; Verrier, D.C.

    1992-01-01

    Spacecraft batteries are normally installed in the discharged condition. It may be necessary that they be charged and trickle-charged prior to launch in an environment different from that in which they are intended to operate. The purpose of the testing described in this paper was to determine the battery capacity achieved after treatment at prelaunch conditions as a function of charge rate, charge temperature, trickle charge temperature, and time. In this testing the discharge in every case was performed under simulated space thermal conditions

  2. Maintaining warm, trusting relationships with brands: increased temperature perceptions after thinking of communal brands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans IJzerman

    Full Text Available Classical theories on interpersonal relations have long suggested that social interactions are influenced by sensation, such as the experience of warmth. Past empirical work now confirms that perceived differences in temperature impact how people form thoughts about relationships. The present work first integrates our knowledge database on brand research with this idea of "grounded social cognition". It then leverages a large sample (total N = 2,552 toward elucidating links between estimates of temperature and positive versus negative evaluations of communal brands. In five studies, the authors have found that thinking about positively (vs. negatively perceived communal brands leads to heightened temperature estimates. A meta-analysis of the five studies shows a small but consistent effect in this noisy environment, r = .11, 95% CI, .05, .18. Exploratory analyses in Studies 1a and b further suggest that temperature perceptions mediate the (significant relationship between perceived communality and willingness to purchase from the brand. The authors discuss implications for theory and practice and consider the effects from a Social Baseline Perspective.

  3. Temperature dynamics and velocity scaling laws for interchange driven, warm ion plasma filaments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jeppe Miki Busk; Madsen, Jens; Nielsen, Anders Henry

    2016-01-01

    The influence of electron and ion temperature dynamics on the radial convection of isolated structures in magnetically confined plasmas is investigated by means of numerical simulations. It is demonstrated that the maximum radial velocity of these plasma blobs roughly follows the inertial velocity...

  4. Maintaining warm, trusting relationships with brands: increased temperature perceptions after thinking of communal brands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    IJzerman, Hans; Janssen, Janneke A; Coan, James A

    2015-01-01

    Classical theories on interpersonal relations have long suggested that social interactions are influenced by sensation, such as the experience of warmth. Past empirical work now confirms that perceived differences in temperature impact how people form thoughts about relationships. The present work first integrates our knowledge database on brand research with this idea of "grounded social cognition". It then leverages a large sample (total N = 2,552) toward elucidating links between estimates of temperature and positive versus negative evaluations of communal brands. In five studies, the authors have found that thinking about positively (vs. negatively) perceived communal brands leads to heightened temperature estimates. A meta-analysis of the five studies shows a small but consistent effect in this noisy environment, r = .11, 95% CI, .05, .18. Exploratory analyses in Studies 1a and b further suggest that temperature perceptions mediate the (significant) relationship between perceived communality and willingness to purchase from the brand. The authors discuss implications for theory and practice and consider the effects from a Social Baseline Perspective.

  5. An investigation of the effects from a urethral warming system on temperature distributions during cryoablation treatment of the prostate: a phantom study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favazza, C P; Gorny, K R; King, D M; Rossman, P J; Felmlee, J P; Woodrum, D A; Mynderse, L A

    2014-08-01

    Introduction of urethral warmers to aid cryosurgery in the prostate has significantly reduced the incidence of urethral sloughing; however, the incidence rate still remains as high as 15%. Furthermore, urethral warmers have been associated with an increase of cancer recurrence rates. Here, we report results from our phantom-based investigation to determine the impact of a urethral warmer on temperature distributions around cryoneedles during cryosurgery. Cryoablation treatments were simulated in a tissue mimicking phantom containing a urethral warming catheter. Four different configurations of cryoneedles relative to urethral warming catheter were investigated. For each configuration, the freeze-thaw cycles were repeated with and without the urethral warming system activated. Temperature histories were recorded at various pre-arranged positions relative to the cryoneedles and urethral warming catheter. In all configurations, the urethral warming system was effective at maintaining sub-lethal temperatures at the simulated surface of the urethra. The warmer action, however, was additionally demonstrated to potentially negatively impact treatment lethality in the target zone by elevating minimal temperatures to sub-lethal levels. In all needle configurations, rates of freezing and thawing were not significantly affected by the use of the urethral warmer. The results indicate that the urethral warming system can protect urethral tissue during cryoablation therapy with cryoneedles placed as close as 5mm to the surface of the urethra. Using a urethral warming system and placing multiple cryoneedles within 1cm of each other delivers lethal cooling at least 5mm from the urethral surface while sparing urethral tissue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B; Baulch, Helen M; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C; Rusak, James A; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R Iestyn

    2017-03-06

    Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (T w -T a ) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (Q H ). If Q H is directed upward, corresponding to positive T w -T a , it can enhance CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative T w -T a across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward Q H ), with T w -T a becoming increasingly negative with increasing T a . Further examination of T w -T a using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that T w -T a is linearly related to T a . Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative T w -T a with increasing annual mean T a since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative T w -T a , thereby reducing CO 2 and CH 4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

  7. Rayleigh lidar observations of enhanced stratopause temperature over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) during major stratospheric warming in 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.; Sathishkumar, S.; Raghunath, K.

    2009-01-01

    Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E) during January-February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending) motions at high (low) latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.

  8. Rayleigh lidar observations of enhanced stratopause temperature over Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during major stratospheric warming in 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sridharan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Rayleigh lidar observations of temperature structure and gravity wave activity were carried out at Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E during January–February 2006. A major stratospheric warming event occurred at high latitude during the end of January and early February. There was a sudden enhancement in the stratopause temperature over Gadanki coinciding with the date of onset of the major stratospheric warming event which occurred at high latitudes. The temperature enhancement persisted even after the end of the high latitude major warming event. During the same time, the UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office zonal mean temperature showed a similar warming episode at 10° N and cooling episode at 60° N around the region of stratopause. This could be due to ascending (descending motions at high (low latitudes above the critical level of planetary waves, where there was no planetary wave flux. The time variation of the gravity wave potential energy computed from the temperature perturbations over Gadanki shows variabilities at planetary wave periods, suggesting a non-linear interaction between gravity waves and planetary waves. The space-time analysis of UKMO temperature data at high and low latitudes shows the presence of similar periodicities of planetary wave of zonal wavenumber 1.

  9. Declining effect of warm temperature on spring phenology of tree species at low elevation in the Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asse, Daphné; Randin, Christophe; Chuine, Isabelle

    2017-04-01

    Mountain regions are particularly exposed to climate change and temperature. In the Alps increased twice faster than in the northern hemisphere during the 20th century. As an immediate response, spring phenological phases of plant species such as budburst and flowering, have tended to occur earlier. In 2004, the CREA (Centre de Recherches sur les Ecosystèmes d'Altitude, Chamonix, France) initiated the citizen science program Phenoclim, which aims at assessing the long-term effects of climate changes on plant phenology over the entire French Alps. Sixty sites with phenological observations were equipped with temperature stations across a large elevational gradient. Here we used phenological records for five tree species (birch, ash, hazel, spruce and larch) combined with measurements or projections of temperature. We first tested the effects of geographic and topo-climatic factors on the timing of spring phenological phases. We then tested the hypothesis that a lack of chilling temperature during winter delayed dormancy release and subsequently spring phenological phases. Our data are currently being used to calibrate process-based phenological models to test to which extent soil temperature and photoperiod affect the timing of spring phenological phases. We found that growing degree-days was the best predictor of the timing of spring phenological phases, with a significant contribution of chilling. Our results also suggest that spring phenological phases were consistently delayed at low elevation by a lack of chilling in fall during warm years for the three deciduous species. Key words: Spring phenology, elevation gradients, citizen science, empirical and process-based modeling

  10. The Role of Vegetation in Mitigating Urban Land Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Munich, Germany during the Warm Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadroddin Alavipanah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST and Land Use Land Cover (LULC, MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.

  11. Human preference and acceptance of increased air velocity to offset warm sensation at increased room temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cattarin, Giulio; Simone, Angela; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    . The present climatic chamber study examined energy performance and achievable thermal comfort of traditional and bladeless desk fans. Different effects of mechanical and simulated-natural airflow patterns were also investigated. 32 Scandinavians, performing office activities and wearing light clothes , were......Previous studies have demonstrated that in summertime increased air velocities can compensate for higher room temperatures to achieve comfortable conditions. In order to increase air movement, windows opening, ceiling or desk fans can be used at the expense of relatively low energy consumption...... exposed to a increased air movement generated by a personal desk fan. The subjects could continuously regulate the fans under three fixed environmental conditions (operative temperatures equal to 26 °C, 28 °C, or 30 °C, and same absolute humidity 12.2 g/m3). The experimental study showed that increased...

  12. Human preference and acceptance of increased air velocity to offset warm sensation at increased room temperatures

    OpenAIRE

    Cattarin, Giulio; Simone, Angela; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that in summertime increased air velocities can compensate for higher room temperatures to achieve comfortable conditions. In order to increase air movement, windows opening, ceiling or desk fans can be used at the expense of relatively low energy consumption. The present climatic chamber study examined energy performance and achievable thermal comfort of traditional and bladeless desk fans. Different effects of mechanical and simulated-natural airflow patte...

  13. Regional difference of the start time of the recent warming in Eastern China: prompted by a 165-year temperature record deduced from tree rings in the Dabie Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Qiufang; Liu, Yu; Duan, Bingchuang; Sun, Changfeng

    2018-03-01

    Tree-ring studies from tropical to subtropical regions are rarer than that from extratropical regions, which greatly limit our understanding of some critical climate change issues. Based on the tree-ring-width chronology of samples collected from the Dabie Mountains, we reconstructed the April-June mean temperature for this region with an explained variance of 46.8%. Five cold (1861-1869, 1889-1899, 1913-1920, 1936-1942 and 1952-1990) and three warm (1870-1888, 1922-1934 and 2000-2005) periods were identified in the reconstruction. The reconstruction not only agreed well with the instrumental records in and around the study area, but also showed good resemblance to previous temperature reconstructions from nearby regions, indicating its spatial and temporal representativeness of the temperature variation in the central part of eastern China. Although no secular warming trend was found, the warming trend since 1970 was unambiguous in the Dabie Mountains (0.064 °C/year). Further temperature comparison indicated that the start time of the recent warming in eastern China was regional different. It delayed gradually from north to south, starting at least around 1940 AD in the north part, around 1970 AD in the central part and around 1980s in the south part. This work enriches the high-resolution temperature reconstructions in eastern China. We expect that climate warming in the future would promote the radial growth of alpine Pinus taiwanensis in the subtropical areas of China, therefore promote the carbon capture and carbon storage in the Pinus taiwanensis forest. It also helps to clarify the regional characteristic of recent warming in eastern China.

  14. Consequences of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokam Mba, Wilfried; Longandjo, Georges-Noel T.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Bell, Jean-Pierre; James, Rachel; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Haensler, Andreas; Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Merlin Guenang, Guy; Djiotang Tchotchou, Angennes Lucie; Kamsu-Tamo, Pierre H.; Takong, Ridick R.; Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher J.; Dosio, Alessandro

    2018-05-01

    Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable region where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differs over Central Africa between 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels. Whilst there are large uncertainties associated with projections at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the 0.5 °C increase in global temperature is associated with larger regional warming response. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate a lack of consensus across the region, though there is a tendency towards decreasing seasonal precipitation in March–May, and a reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, a significant increase in consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5 day rainfall are also detected between 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C global warming levels.

  15. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

    2011-01-01

    The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

  16. The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

    2018-03-23

    The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  17. Spring hydrology determines summer net carbon uptake in northern ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Yonghong; Kimball, John S; Reichle, Rolf H

    2014-01-01

    Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO 2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO 2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (⩾50° N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO 2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO 2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends. (letters)

  18. Spring Hydrology Determines Summer Net Carbon Uptake in Northern Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Yonghong; Kimball, John; Reichle, Rolf H.

    2014-01-01

    Increased photosynthetic activity and enhanced seasonal CO2 exchange of northern ecosystems have been observed from a variety of sources including satellite vegetation indices (such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 measurements. Most of these changes have been attributed to strong warming trends in the northern high latitudes (greater than or equal to 50N). Here we analyze the interannual variation of summer net carbon uptake derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements and satellite NDVI in relation to surface meteorology from regional observational records. We find that increases in spring precipitation and snow pack promote summer net carbon uptake of northern ecosystems independent of air temperature effects. However, satellite NDVI measurements still show an overall benefit of summer photosynthetic activity from regional warming and limited impact of spring precipitation. This discrepancy is attributed to a similar response of photosynthesis and respiration to warming and thus reduced sensitivity of net ecosystem carbon uptake to temperature. Further analysis of boreal tower eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements indicates that summer net carbon uptake is positively correlated with early growing-season surface soil moisture, which is also strongly affected by spring precipitation and snow pack based on analysis of satellite soil moisture retrievals. This is attributed to strong regulation of spring hydrology on soil respiration in relatively wet boreal and arctic ecosystems. These results document the important role of spring hydrology in determining summer net carbon uptake and contrast with prevailing assumptions of dominant cold temperature limitations to high-latitude ecosystems. Our results indicate potentially stronger coupling of boreal/arctic water and carbon cycles with continued regional warming trends.

  19. The Summer Monsoon of 1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, T. N.; Bedi, H. S.; Subramaniam, M.

    1989-04-01

    In this paper we have examined the evolution of a number of parameters we believe were important for our understanding of the drought over India during the summer of 1987. The list of parameters includes monthly means or anomalies of the following fields: sea surface temperatures, divergent circulations, outgoing longwave radiation, streamfunction of the lower and upper troposphere, and monthly precipitation (expressed as a percentage departure from a long-term mean). The El Niño related warm sea surface temperature anomaly and a weaker warm sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean provide sustained convection, as reflected by the negative values of the outgoing longwave radiation. With the seasonal heating, a pronounced planetary-scale divergent circulation evolved with a center along the western Pacific Ocean. The monsoonal divergent circulation merged with that related to the El Niño, maintaining most of the heavy rainfall activity between the equatorial Pacific Ocean and east Asia. Persistent convective activity continued south of India during the entire monsoon season. Strong Hadley type overturnings with rising motions over these warm SST anomaly regions and descent roughly near 20° to 25°S was evident as early as April 1987. The subtropical high pressure areas near 20° to 25°S showed stronger than normal circulations. This was revealed by the presence of a counterclockwise streamfunction anomaly at 850 mb during April 1987. With the seasonal heating, this anomaly moved northwards and was located over the Arabian Sea and India. This countermonsoon circulation anomaly at the low levels was associated with a weaker than normal Somali jet and Arabian Sea circulation throughout this summer. The monsoon remained active along northeast India, Bangladesh, northern lndochina, and central China during the summer monsoon season. This was related to the eastward shift of the divergent circulation. An eastward shift of the upper tropospheric

  20. Summer temperatures in Europe and land heat fluxes in observation-based data and regional climate simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegehuis, A.I.; Vautard, R.; Ciais, Ph.; Teuling, A.J.; Jung, P.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence and intensity of heatwaves is expected to increase with climate change. Early warnings of hot summers have therefore a great socio-economical value. Previous studies have shown that hot summers are preceded by a Southern European rainfall deficit during winter, and higher spring

  1. Computing the distribution of return levels of extreme warm temperatures for future climate projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pausader, M.; Parey, S.; Nogaj, M. [EDF/R and D, Chatou Cedex (France); Bernie, D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-15

    In order to take into account uncertainties in the future climate projections there is a growing demand for probabilistic projections of climate change. This paper presents a methodology for producing such a probabilistic analysis of future temperature extremes. The 20- and 100-years return levels are obtained from that of the normalized variable and the changes in mean and standard deviation given by climate models for the desired future periods. Uncertainty in future change of these extremes is quantified using a multi-model ensemble and a perturbed physics ensemble. The probability density functions of future return levels are computed at a representative location from the joint probability distribution of mean and standard deviation changes given by the two combined ensembles of models. For the studied location, the 100-years return level at the end of the century is lower than 41 C with an 80% confidence. Then, as the number of model simulations is low to compute a reliable distribution, two techniques proposed in the literature (local pattern scaling and ANOVA) have been used to infer the changes in mean and standard deviation for the combinations of RCM and GCM which have not been run. The ANOVA technique leads to better results for the reconstruction of the mean changes, whereas the two methods fail to correctly infer the changes in standard deviation. As standard deviation change has a major impact on return level change, there is a need to improve the models and the different techniques regarding the variance changes. (orig.)

  2. In Situ Warming and Soil Venting to Enhance the Biodegradation of JP-4 in Cold Climates: A Critical Study and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-12-01

    1178-1180 (1991). Atlas , Ronald M. and Richard Bartha . Microbial Ecology : Fundamentals and Applications. 3d ed. Redwood City CA: The Benjamin/Cummings...technique called bioventing. In cold climates, in situ bioremediation is limited to the summer when soil temperatures are sufficient to support microbial ...actively warmed the soil -- warm water circulation and heat tape; the other passively warmed the plot with insulatory covers. Microbial respiration (02

  3. Solitary waves of the Kadomstev-Petviashvili equation in warm dusty plasma with variable dust charge, two temperature ion and nonthermal electron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pakzad, Hamid Reza

    2009-01-01

    The propagation of nonlinear waves in warm dusty plasmas with variable dust charge, two temperature ion and nonthermal electron is studied. By using the reductive perturbation theory, the Kadomstev-Petviashivili (KP) equation is derived. Existence of rarefactive and compressive solitons is analyzed.

  4. Toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus crypticus changes under a global warming perspective: Variations in air temperature and soil moisture content

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gonzalez Alcaraz, M.N.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to assess how the current global warming perspective, with increasing air temperature (20 °C vs. 25 °C) and decreasing soil moisture content (50% vs. 30% of the soil water holding capacity, WHC), affected the toxicity of a metal(loid)-polluted agricultural soil to Enchytraeus

  5. Lactating performance, water and feed consumption of rabbit does reared under a Mediterranean summer circadian cycle of temperature v. comfort temperature conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakr, M H; Tusell, L; Rafel, O; Terré, M; Sánchez, J P; Piles, M

    2015-07-01

    The general aim of this research was to study the effect of high ambient temperature on the performance of does during lactation, specifically the following factors: average daily feed (ADFI) and water (ADWI) intakes, daily milk yield (DMY); milk composition: dry matter (DM), CP and gross energy (GE); doe BW (DW); individual kit weaning weight (IWW) and litter survival rate during lactation (SR). The study was undertaken comparing the performance of two groups of contemporary does reared under the same management, feeding regime and environmental conditions, except the environmental temperature and humidity. A total of 80 females were randomly allocated, at 60 days of age, into two identical and continuous rooms. In one room, the temperature was maintained permanently within the thermo-neutral zone (between 18°C to 22°C); thus, environmental conditions in this room were considered as comfort conditions. In the second room, the environmental temperature pattern simulated the daily temperature cycles that were characteristic of the summer in Mediterranean countries (24°C at 0800 h, increasing up to 29°C until 1100 h; maintenance at 29°C to 31°C for 4 h and decreasing to about 24°C to 26°C around 1700 h until 0800 h of the following day), which were considered as thermal stress conditions. Females followed a semi-intensive reproductive rhythm, first artificial insemination at 4.5 months of age, with subsequent 42-day reproductive cycles. Traits were recorded from a total of 138 lactations. Does were controlled up to the 5th lactation. Data were analyzed using linear and linear mixed models. High ambient temperature led to a lower ADFI (-9.4%), DW (-6.2%) and IWW (-8%), but it did not affect ADWI. No significant difference was found either for DMY, milk composition (DM, CP and GE) and SR during the lactation period. Heat stress was moderate, and does were able to adapt to it behaviorally by decreasing feed intake (to reduce heat production), but also live

  6. Methane Cycling in a Warming Wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyce, G. L.; Megonigal, P.; Rich, R.; Kirwan, M. L.; Herbert, E. R.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon (C) storage, but the future of these systems is uncertain. In June 2016, we initiated an in-situ, active, whole-ecosystem warming experiment in the Smithsonian's Global Change Research Wetland to quantify how warming and elevated CO2 affect the stability of coastal wetland soil C pools and contemporary rates of C sequestration. Transects are located in two plant communities, dominated by C3 sedges or C4 grasses. The experiment has a gradient design with air and soil warming treatments ranging from ambient to +5.1 °C and heated plots consistently maintain their target temperature year-round. In April 2017, an elevated CO2 treatment was crossed with temperature in the C3community. Ongoing measurements include soil elevation, C fluxes, porewater chemistry and redox potential, and above- and below-ground growth and biomass. In both years, warming increased methane (CH4) emissions (measured at 3-4 week intervals) from spring through fall at the C3 site, but had little effect on emissions from the C4 site. Winter (Dec-Mar) emissions showed no treatment effect. Stable isotope analysis of dissolved CH4 and DIC also indicated that warming had differing effects on CH4 pathways in the two vegetation communities. To better understand temperature effects on rates of CH4 production and oxidation, 1 m soil cores were collected from control areas of the marsh in summer 2017 and incubated at temperatures ranging from 4 °C to 35 °C. Warming increased CH4 production and oxidation rates in surface samples and oxidation rates in the rooting zone samples from both sites, but temperature responses in deep (1 m) soil samples were minimal. In the surface and rooting zone samples, production rates were also consistently higher in C3 soils compared to C4 soils, but, contrary to our expectations, the temperature response was stronger in the C4 soils. However, oxidation in C3 rooting zone samples did have a strong temperature response. The

  7. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

    2018-05-13

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of

  8. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-05-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a

  9. Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for

  10. Walleye recruitment success is less resilient to warming water temperatures in lakes with abundant largemouth bass populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler

    2018-01-01

    Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (i) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success and (ii) identify the influence of lake characteristics — area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD — on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = −0.11, 90% CI = −0.34, 0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%) and positive in 161 (45%). The effect of annual DD was most negative in lakes with high largemouth bass densities, and, on average, the probability of recruitment was highest in large lakes with low largemouth bass densities. Conductivity and mean DD influenced neither recruitment nor the effect of annual DD. Walleye recruitment was most resilient to warming in lakes with few largemouth bass, suggesting that the effects of climate change depend on lake-specific food-web and habitat contexts.

  11. Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Area Expansion, Modoki Activity, and Tropical Cold-Point Tropopause Temperature Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Fei; Li, Jianping; Tian, Wenshou; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2014-01-01

    The tropical cold-point tropopause temperature (CPTT), a potentially important indicator of global climate change, is of particular importance for understanding changes in stratospheric water vapor levels. Since the 1980s, the tropical CPTT has shown not only interannual variations, but also a decreasing trend. However, the factors controlling the variations in the tropical CPTT since the 1980s remain elusive. The present study reveals that the continuous expansion of the area of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) since the 1980s represents an increase in the total heat energy of the IPWP available to heat the tropospheric air, which is likely to expand as a result. This process lifts the tropical cold-point tropopause height (CPTH) and leads to the observed long-term cooling trend of the tropical CPTT. In addition, our analysis shows that Modoki activity is an important factor in modulating the interannual variations of the tropical CPTT through significant effects on overshooting convection. PMID:24686481

  12. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

    2014-01-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

  13. Link between western Arabian sea surface temperature and summer monsoon strength and high-latitude abrupt climate events

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.

    Artificial Neural Networks (ANN's) based on quantitative analyses of planktic foraminifera. High seasonal SST contrast between winter and summer during the last glacial period indicates weak upwelling and strong cold northeasterly winds. Minimum seasonal SST...

  14. Effects of winter temperature and summer drought on net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in a temperate peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfter, Carole; Campbell, Claire; Dinsmore, Kerry; Drewer, Julia; Coyle, Mhairi; Anderson, Margaret; Skiba, Ute; Nemitz, Eiko; Billett, Michael; Sutton, Mark

    2014-05-01

    dominant. The site is wet throughout most of the year (water table depth values were found for years with warm winters and relatively wet growing seasons. A simple parameterisation of the effects of PAR on GPP of and air temperature on ecosystem respiration, suggest that a rise in air temperature of 1° C between 2012 and 2065 could lead to a 73% increase in the carbon sink strength of the peatland, provided hydrological conditions remain unchanged. This demonstrates that climate change is not likely to change this peatland into a carbon source by 2100.

  15. Variable responses of benthic communities to anomalously warm sea temperatures on a high-latitude coral reef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridge, Tom C L; Ferrari, Renata; Bryson, Mitch; Hovey, Renae; Figueira, Will F; Williams, Stefan B; Pizarro, Oscar; Harborne, Alastair R; Byrne, Maria

    2014-01-01

    High-latitude reefs support unique ecological communities occurring at the biogeographic boundaries between tropical and temperate marine ecosystems. Due to their lower ambient temperatures, they are regarded as potential refugia for tropical species shifting poleward due to rising sea temperatures. However, acute warming events can cause rapid shifts in the composition of high-latitude reef communities, including range contractions of temperate macroalgae and bleaching-induced mortality in corals. While bleaching has been reported on numerous high-latitude reefs, post-bleaching trajectories of benthic communities are poorly described. Consequently, the longer-term effects of thermal anomalies on high-latitude reefs are difficult to predict. Here, we use an autonomous underwater vehicle to conduct repeated surveys of three 625 m(2) plots on a coral-dominated high-latitude reef in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, over a four-year period spanning a large-magnitude thermal anomaly. Quantification of benthic communities revealed high coral cover (>70%, comprising three main morphospecies) prior to the bleaching event. Plating Montipora was most susceptible to bleaching, but in the plot where it was most abundant, coral cover did not change significantly because of post-bleaching increases in branching Acropora. In the other two plots, coral cover decreased while macroalgal cover increased markedly. Overall, coral cover declined from 73% to 59% over the course of the study, while macroalgal cover increased from 11% to 24%. The significant differences in impacts and post-bleaching trajectories among plots underline the importance of understanding the underlying causes of such variation to improve predictions of how climate change will affect reefs, especially at high-latitudes.

  16. Variable responses of benthic communities to anomalously warm sea temperatures on a high-latitude coral reef.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom C L Bridge

    Full Text Available High-latitude reefs support unique ecological communities occurring at the biogeographic boundaries between tropical and temperate marine ecosystems. Due to their lower ambient temperatures, they are regarded as potential refugia for tropical species shifting poleward due to rising sea temperatures. However, acute warming events can cause rapid shifts in the composition of high-latitude reef communities, including range contractions of temperate macroalgae and bleaching-induced mortality in corals. While bleaching has been reported on numerous high-latitude reefs, post-bleaching trajectories of benthic communities are poorly described. Consequently, the longer-term effects of thermal anomalies on high-latitude reefs are difficult to predict. Here, we use an autonomous underwater vehicle to conduct repeated surveys of three 625 m(2 plots on a coral-dominated high-latitude reef in the Houtman Abrolhos Islands, Western Australia, over a four-year period spanning a large-magnitude thermal anomaly. Quantification of benthic communities revealed high coral cover (>70%, comprising three main morphospecies prior to the bleaching event. Plating Montipora was most susceptible to bleaching, but in the plot where it was most abundant, coral cover did not change significantly because of post-bleaching increases in branching Acropora. In the other two plots, coral cover decreased while macroalgal cover increased markedly. Overall, coral cover declined from 73% to 59% over the course of the study, while macroalgal cover increased from 11% to 24%. The significant differences in impacts and post-bleaching trajectories among plots underline the importance of understanding the underlying causes of such variation to improve predictions of how climate change will affect reefs, especially at high-latitudes.

  17. On the relationship between the early spring Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) and the Tibetan Plateau atmospheric heat source in summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Chenxu; Zhang, Yuanzhi; Cheng, Qiuming; Li, Yu; Jiang, Tingchen; San Liang, X.

    2018-05-01

    In this study, we evaluated the effects of springtime Indian Ocean's sea surface temperature (SST) on the Tibetan Plateau's role as atmospheric heat source (AHS) in summer. The SST data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data set (HadISST) and the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for 33 years (from 1979 to 2011) were used to analyze the relationship between the Indian Ocean SST and the Tibetan Plateau's AHS in summer, using the approaches that include correlation analysis, and lead-lag analysis. Our results show that some certain strong oceanic SSTs affect the summer plateau heat, specially finding that the early spring SSTs of the Indian Ocean significantly affect the plateau's ability to serve as a heat source in summer. Moreover, the anomalous atmospheric circulation and transport of water vapor are related to the Plateau heat variation.

  18. Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.

    2017-11-01

    There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European climate extremes at these warming levels. For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 °C global warming compared to 2 °C global warming. Under 2 °C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years. We find that there are very clear benefits to limiting global warming for the European continent, including fewer and less intense heat and rainfall extremes when compared with higher levels of global warming.

  19. Microclimate impacts of passive warming methods in Antarctica: implications for climate change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.; Huiskes, A.H.L.; Convey, P.; Sinclair, B.J.; Lebouvier, M.; van de Vijver, B.; Wall, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    Passive chambers are used to examine the impacts of summer warming in Antarctica but, so far, impacts occurring outside the growing season, or related to extreme temperatures, have not been reported, despite their potentially large biological significance. In this review, we synthesise and discuss

  20. Effects of warming on uptake and translocation of cadmium (Cd) and copper (Cu) in a contaminated soil-rice system under Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Li-Qiang; Cang, Long; Liu, Hui; Zhou, Dong-Mei

    2016-07-01

    Global warming has received growing attentions about its potential threats to human in recent, however little is known about its effects on transfer of heavy metals in agro-ecosystem, especially for Cd in rice. Pot experiments were conducted to evaluate Cd/Cu translocation in a contaminated soil-rice system under Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI). The results showed that warming gradually decreased soil porewater pH and increased water-soluble Cd/Cu concentration, reduced formation of iron plaque on root surface, and thus significantly increased total uptake of Cd/Cu by rice. Subsequently, warming significantly promoted Cd translocation from root to shoot, and increased Cd distribution percentage in shoot, while Cu was not significantly affected. Enhanced Cd uptake and translocation synergistically resulted in higher rice grain contamination with increasing concentration from 0.27 to 0.65 and 0.14-0.40 mg kg(-1) for Indica and Japonica rice, respectively. However increase of Cu in brown grain was only attributed to its uptake enhancement under warming. Our study provides a new understanding about the food production insecurity of heavy metal contaminated soil under the future global warming. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Ecosystem maturation follows the warming of the Arctic fjords

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Marcin Węsławski; Friedrich Buchholz; Marta Głuchowska; Agata Weydmann

    2017-01-01

    Two fjords in West Spitsbergen (Hornsund 77°N and Kongsfjorden 79°N) differ with regard to their exposure towards increasingly warm Atlantic water inflow. Hornsund remains in many respects cooler than Kongsfjorden (on average 2°C SST in summer) and is less influenced by warmer and more saline Atlantic waters. Reported changes in the physical environment (temperature rise, freshwater inflow, salinity drop, turbidity, fast-ice reduction, coastal change) are discussed in the context of biologica...

  2. Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

    2012-06-01

    Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.

  3. Chronic warming stimulates growth of marsh grasses more than mangroves in a coastal wetland ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coldren, G A; Barreto, C R; Wykoff, D D; Morrissey, E M; Langley, J A; Feller, I C; Chapman, S K

    2016-11-01

    Increasing temperatures and a reduction in the frequency and severity of freezing events have been linked to species distribution shifts. Across the globe, mangrove ranges are expanding toward higher latitudes, likely due to diminishing frequency of freezing events associated with climate change. Continued warming will alter coastal wetland plant dynamics both above- and belowground, potentially altering plant capacity to keep up with sea level rise. We conducted an in situ warming experiment, in northeast Florida, to determine how increased temperature (+2°C) influences co-occurring mangrove and salt marsh plants. Warming was achieved using passive warming with three treatment levels (ambient, shade control, warmed). Avicennia germinans, the black mangrove, exhibited no differences in growth or height due to experimental warming, but displayed a warming-induced increase in leaf production (48%). Surprisingly, Distichlis spicata, the dominant salt marsh grass, increased in biomass (53% in 2013 and 70% in 2014), density (41%) and height (18%) with warming during summer months. Warming decreased plant root mass at depth and changed abundances of anaerobic bacterial taxa. Even while the poleward shift of mangroves is clearly controlled by the occurrences of severe freezes, chronic warming between these freeze events may slow the progression of mangrove dominance within ecotones. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. Planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope analysis by ion microprobe technique suggests warm tropical sea surface temperatures during the Early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozdon, Reinhard; Kelly, D. Clay; Kita, Noriko T.; Fournelle, John H.; Valley, John W.

    2011-09-01

    Cool tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are reported for warm Paleogene greenhouse climates based on the δ18O of planktonic foraminiferal tests. These results are difficult to reconcile with models of greenhouse gas-forced climate. It has been suggested that this "cool tropics paradox" arises from postdepositional alteration of foraminiferal calcite, yielding erroneously high δ18O values. Recrystallization of foraminiferal tests is cryptic and difficult to quantify, and the compilation of robust δ18O records from moderately altered material remains challenging. Scanning electron microscopy of planktonic foraminiferal chamber-wall cross sections reveals that the basal area of muricae, pustular outgrowths on the chamber walls of species belonging to the genus Morozovella, contain no mural pores and may be less susceptible to postdepositional alteration. We analyzed the δ18O in muricae bases of morozovellids from the central Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 865) by ion microprobe using 10 μm pits with an analytical reproducibility of ±0.34‰ (2 standard deviations). In situ measurements of δ18O in these domains yield consistently lower values than those published for conventional multispecimen analyses. Assuming that the original δ18O is largely preserved in the basal areas of muricae, this new δ18O record indicates Early Paleogene (˜49-56 Ma) tropical SSTs in the central Pacific were 4°-8°C higher than inferred from the previously published δ18O record and that SSTs reached at least ˜33°C during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. This study demonstrates the utility of ion microprobe analysis for generating more reliable paleoclimate records from moderately altered foraminiferal tests preserved in deep-sea sediments.

  5. Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vialard, J. [Univerite P. et M. Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Case 100, CNRS, IRD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Lengaigne, M. [Univerite P. et M. Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (LOCEAN), Case 100, CNRS, IRD, Paris Cedex 05 (France); CSIR, National Institute of Oceanography, Goa (India); Sengupta, D. [Indian Institute of Sciences, Centre of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Bangalore (India)

    2012-05-15

    During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against {proportional_to}0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); {proportional_to}60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and {proportional_to}40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our {proportional_to}100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region

  6. Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vialard, J.; Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sengupta, D.; Goswami, B. N.

    2012-05-01

    During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against ~0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); ~60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and ~40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our ~100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST

  7. Heat flux estimate of warm water flow in a low-temperature diffuse flow site, southern East Pacific Rise 17°25‧ S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, Shusaku; Kinoshita, Masataka; Mitsuzawa, Kyohiko

    2003-09-01

    A low-temperature diffuse flow site associated with abundant vent fauna was found by submersible observations on the southern East Pacific Rise at 17°25‧ S in 1997. This site was characterized by thin sediment covered pillow and sheet lavas with collapsed pits up to ˜15 m in diameter. There were three warm water vents (temperature: 6.5 to 10.5 °C) within the site above which the vented fluids rise as plumes. To estimate heat flux of the warm water vents, a temperature logger array was deployed and the vertical temperature distribution in the water column up to 38 m above the seafloor was monitored. A stationary deep seafloor observatory system was also deployed to monitor hydrothermal activity in this site. The temperature logger array measured temperature anomalies, while the plumes from the vents passed through the array. Because the temperature anomalies were measured in only specific current directions, we identified one of the vents as the source. Heat flux from the vent was estimated by applying a plume model in crossflow in a density-stratified environment. The average heat flux from September 13 to October 18, 1997 was 39 MW. This heat flux is as same order as those of high-temperature black smokers, indicating that a large volume flux was discharged from the vent (1.9 m3/s). Previous observations found many similar warm water flow vents along the spreading axis between 17°20‧ S 30‧ S. The total heat flux was estimated to be at least a few hundred mega-watts. This venting style would contribute to form effluent hydrothermal plumes extended above the spreading axis.

  8. Relations between fish abundances, summer temperatures, and forest harvest in a northern Minnesota stream system from 1997 to 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric Merten; Nathaniel Hemstad; Susan Eggert; Lucinda Johnson; Randall Kolka; Bruce Vondracek; Raymond. Newman

    2010-01-01

    Short-term effects of forest harvest on fish habitat have been well documented, including sediment inputs, leaf litter reductions, and stream warming. However, few studies have considered changes in local climate when examining postlogging changes in fish communities. To address this need, we examined fish abundances between 1997 and 2007 in a basin in a northern...

  9. The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

  10. Beyond peak summer temperatures, branching corals in the Gulf of Aqaba are resilient to thermal stress but sensitive to high light

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellworthy, Jessica; Fine, Maoz

    2017-12-01

    Despite rapidly rising sea surface temperatures and recurrent positive temperature anomalies, corals in the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) rarely experience thermal bleaching. Elsewhere, mass coral bleaching has been observed in corals when the water temperature exceeds 1-2 °C above the local maximum monthly mean (MMM). This threshold value or "bleaching rule" has been used to create predictive models of bleaching from satellite sea surface temperature observations, namely the "degree heating week" index. This study aimed to characterize the physiological changes of dominant reef building corals from the GoA in response to a temperature and light stress gradient. Coral collection and experiments began after a period of 14 consecutive days above MMM in the field. Stylophora pistillata showed negligible changes in symbiont and host physiology parameters after accumulating up to 9.4 degree heating weeks during peak summer temperatures, for which the index predicts widespread bleaching and some mortality. This result demonstrates acute thermal tolerance in S. pistillata from the GoA and deviation from the bleaching rule. In a second experiment after 4 weeks at 4 °C above peak summer temperatures, S. pistillata and Acropora eurystoma in the high-light treatment visibly paled and suffered greater midday and afternoon photoinhibition compared to corals under low-light conditions (35% of high-light treatment). However, light, not temperature (alone or in synergy with light), was the dominant factor in causing paling and the effective quantum yield of corals at 4 °C above ambient was indistinguishable from those in the ambient control. This result highlights the exceptional, atypical thermal tolerance of dominant GoA branching corals. Concomitantly, it validates the efficacy of protecting GoA reefs from local stressors if they are to serve as a coral refuge in the face of global sea temperature rise.

  11. The effects of boreal forest expansion on the summer Arctic frontal zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liess, Stefan; Snyder, Peter K.; Harding, Keith J. [University of Minnesota, Department of Soil, Water, and Climate, Saint Paul, MN (United States)

    2012-05-15

    Over the last 100 years, Arctic warming has resulted in a longer growing season in boreal and tundra ecosystems. This has contributed to a slow northward expansion of the boreal forest and a decrease in the surface albedo. Corresponding changes to the surface and atmospheric energy budgets have contributed to a broad region of warming over areas of boreal forest expansion. In addition, mesoscale and synoptic scale patterns have changed as a result of the excess energy at and near the surface. Previous studies have identified a relationship between the positioning of the boreal forest-tundra ecotone and the Arctic frontal zone in summer. This study examines the climate response to hypothetical boreal forest expansion and its influence on the summer Arctic frontal zone. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model over the Northern Hemisphere, an experiment was performed to evaluate the atmospheric response to expansion of evergreen and deciduous boreal needleleaf forests into open shrubland along the northern boundary of the existing forest. Results show that the lower surface albedo with forest expansion leads to a local increase in net radiation and an average hemispheric warming of 0.6 C at and near the surface during June with some locations warming by 1-2 C. This warming contributes to changes in the meridional temperature gradient that enhances the Arctic frontal zone and strengthens the summertime jet. This experiment suggests that continued Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and boreal forest expansion might contribute to additional climate changes during the summer. (orig.)

  12. A new tree-ring-based summer temperature reconstruction over the last three centuries for east-central Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Treml, V.; Ponočná, T.; King, G. M.; Büntgen, Ulf

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 10 (2015), s. 3160-3171 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : high-resolution paleoclimatology * climate * growth * standardization * records * millennium * mountains * responses * density * signal * tree rings * climate reconstruction * dendroclimatology * documentary evidence * Little Ice Age * warm ing * Norway spruce * proxy archives * Sudetes Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.609, year: 2015

  13. Are winter-active species vulnerable to climate warming? A case study with the wintergreen terrestrial orchid, Tipularia discolor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchin, Renée M; Dunn, Robert R; Hoffmann, William A

    2014-12-01

    In the eastern United States, winter temperature has been increasing nearly twice as fast as summer temperature, but studies of warming effects on plants have focused on species that are photosynthetically active in summer. The terrestrial orchid Tipularia discolor is leafless in summer and acquires C primarily in winter. The optimum temperature for photosynthesis in T. discolor is higher than the maximum temperature throughout most of its growing season, and therefore growth can be expected to increase with warming. Contrary to this hypothesis, experimental warming negatively affected reproductive fitness (number of flowering stalks, flowers, fruits) and growth (change in leaf area from 2010 to 2012) in T. discolor. Temperature in June-July was critical for flowering, and mean July temperature greater than 29 °C (i.e., 2.5 °C above ambient) eliminated reproduction. Warming of 1.2 °C delayed flowering by an average of 10 days and fruiting by an average of 5 days. Warming of 4.4 °C reduced relative growth rates by about 60%, which may have been partially caused by the direct effects of temperature on photosynthesis and respiration. Warming indirectly increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD) by 0.2-0.5 kPa, and leaf-to-air VPD over 1.3 kPa restricted stomatal conductance of T. discolor to 10-40% of maximum conductance. These results highlight the need to account for changes in VPD when estimating temperature responses of plant species under future warming scenarios. Increasing temperature in the future will likely be an important limiting factor to the distribution of T. discolor, especially along the southern edge of its range.

  14. Temperatures in excess of critical thresholds threaten nestling growth and survival in a rapidly-warming arid savanna: a study of common fiscals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan J Cunningham

    Full Text Available Frequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (tmax and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals (Lanius collaris in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High tmax reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period tmax did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which tmax exceeded critical thresholds (tcrits significantly reduced fledging body mass (tcrit = 33°C and tarsus length (tcrit= 37°C, as well as delaying fledging (tcrit= 35°C. Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species' responses to climate change.

  15. Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wisser

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Northern peatlands contain a large terrestrial carbon pool that plays an important role in the Earth's carbon cycle. A considerable fraction of this carbon pool is currently in permafrost and is biogeochemically relatively inert; this will change with increasing soil temperatures as a result of climate warming in the 21st century. We use a geospatially explicit representation of peat areas and peat depth from a recently-compiled database and a geothermal model to estimate northern North America soil temperature responses to predicted changes in air temperature. We find that, despite a widespread decline in the areas classified as permafrost, soil temperatures in peatlands respond more slowly to increases in air temperature owing to the insulating properties of peat. We estimate that an additional 670 km3 of peat soils in North America, containing ~33 Pg C, could be seasonally thawed by the end of the century, representing ~20 % of the total peat volume in Alaska and Canada. Warming conditions result in a lengthening of the soil thaw period by ~40 days, averaged over the model domain. These changes have potentially important implications for the carbon balance of peat soils.

  16. Semidiurnal temperature changes caused by tidal front movements in the warm season in seabed habitats on the georges bank northern margin and their ecological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Vincent G; Valentine, Page C; Gallea, Leslie B

    2013-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow feature separating the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies demonstrated a strong tidal-mixing front during the warm season on the northern bank margin between thermally stratified water in the Gulf of Maine and mixed water on the bank. Tides transport warm water off the bank during flood tide and cool gulf water onto the bank during ebb tide. During 10 days in August 2009, we mapped frontal temperatures in five study areas along ∼100 km of the bank margin. The seabed "frontal zone", where temperature changed with frontal movment, experienced semidiurnal temperature maxima and minima. The tidal excursion of the frontal boundary between stratified and mixed water ranged 6 to 10 km. This "frontal boundary zone" was narrower than the frontal zone. Along transects perpendicular to the bank margin, seabed temperature change at individual sites ranged from 7.0°C in the frontal zone to 0.0°C in mixed bank water. At time series in frontal zone stations, changes during tidal cycles ranged from 1.2 to 6.1°C. The greatest rate of change (-2.48°C hr(-1)) occurred at mid-ebb. Geographic plots of seabed temperature change allowed the mapping of up to 8 subareas in each study area. The magnitude of temperature change in a subarea depended on its location in the frontal zone. Frontal movement had the greatest effect on seabed temperature in the 40 to 80 m depth interval. Subareas experiencing maximum temperature change in the frontal zone were not in the frontal boundary zone, but rather several km gulfward (off-bank) of the frontal boundary zone. These results provide a new ecological framework for examining the effect of tidally-driven temperature variability on the distribution, food resources, and reproductive success of benthic invertebrate and demersal fish species living in tidal front habitats.

  17. Antecedent moisture and temperature conditions modulate the response of ecosystem respiration to elevated CO2 and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terrestrial plant and soil respiration, or ecosystem respiration (Reco), represents a major CO2 flux in the global carbon cycle. However, there is disagreement in how Reco will respond to future global changes, such as elevated atmosphere CO2 and warming. To address this, we synthesized six years (2...

  18. An isoline separating relatively warm from relatively cool wintertime forest surface temperatures for the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    J. Wickham; T.G. Wade; K.H. Riitters

    2014-01-01

    Forest-oriented climate mitigation policies promote forestation as a means to increase uptake of atmospheric carbon to counteract global warming. Some have pointed out that a carbon-centric forest policy may be overstated because it discounts biophysical aspects of the influence of forests on climate. In extra-tropical regions, many climate models have shown that...

  19. A 400-year ice core melt layer record of summertime warming in the Alaska Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winski, D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kreutz, K. J.; Wake, C. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Campbell, S. W.; Baum, M.; Raudzens Bailey, A.; Birkel, S. D.; Introne, D.; Handley, M.

    2017-12-01

    Warming in high-elevation regions has socially relevant impacts on glacier mass balance, water resources, and sensitive alpine ecosystems, yet very few high-elevation temperature records exist from the middle or high latitudes. While many terrestrial paleoclimate records provide critical temperature records from low elevations over recent centuries, melt layers preserved in alpine glaciers present an opportunity to develop calibrated, annually-resolved temperature records from high elevations. We present a 400-year temperature record based on the melt-layer stratigraphy in two ice cores collected from Mt. Hunter in the Central Alaska Range. The ice core record shows a 60-fold increase in melt frequency and water equivalent melt thickness between the pre-industrial period (before 1850) and present day. We calibrate the melt record to summer temperatures based on local and regional weather station analyses, and find that the increase in melt production represents a summer warming of at least 2° C, exceeding rates of temperature increase at most low elevation sites in Alaska. The Mt. Hunter melt layer record is significantly (p<0.05) correlated with surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific through a Rossby-wave like pattern that induces high temperatures over Alaska. Our results show that rapid alpine warming has taken place in the Alaska Range for at least a century, and that conditions in the tropical oceans contribute to this warming.

  20. Metabolic rates and tissue composition of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa over 12 latitudes in the Red Sea characterized by strong temperature and nutrient gradient, supplement to: Sawall, Yvonne; Al-Sofyani, A; Hohn, S; Banguera-Hinestroza, E; Voolstra, Christian R; Wahl, Martin (2015): Extensive phenotypic plasticity of a Red Sea coral over a strong latitudinal temperature gradient suggests limited acclimatization potential to warming. Scientific Reports, 5, 8940

    KAUST Repository

    Sawall, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    Global warming was reported to cause growth reductions in tropical shallow water corals in both, cooler and warmer, regions of the coral species range. This suggests regional adaptation with less heat-tolerant populations in cooler and more thermo-tolerant populations in warmer regions. Here, we investigated seasonal changes in the in situ metabolic performance of the widely distributed hermatypic coral Pocillopora verrucosa along 12 degrees latitudes featuring a steep temperature gradient between the northern (28.5 degrees N, 21-27 degrees C) and southern (16.5 degrees N, 28-33 degrees C) reaches of the Red Sea. Surprisingly, we found little indication for regional adaptation, but strong indications for high phenotypic plasticity: Calcification rates in two seasons (winter, summer) were found to be highest at 28-29 degrees C throughout all populations independent of their geographic location. Mucus release increased with temperature and nutrient supply, both being highest in the south. Genetic characterization of the coral host revealed low inter-regional variation and differences in the Symbiodinium clade composition only at the most northern and most southern region. This suggests variable acclimatization potential to ocean warming of coral populations across the Red Sea: high acclimatization potential in northern populations, but limited ability to cope with ocean warming in southern populations already existing at the upper thermal margin for corals

  1. Gas exchange, growth, and defense responses of invasive Alliaria petiolata (Brassicaceae) and native Geum vernum (Rosaceae) to elevated atmospheric CO2 and warm spring temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Laurel J; Cipollini, Don

    2013-08-01

    Global increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature may interact in complex ways to influence plant physiology and growth, particularly for species that grow in cool, early spring conditions in temperate forests. Plant species may also vary in their responses to environmental changes; fast-growing invasives may be more responsive to rising CO2 than natives and may increase production of allelopathic compounds under these conditions, altering species' competitive interactions. We examined growth and physiological responses of Alliaria petiolata, an allelopathic, invasive herb, and Geum vernum, a co-occurring native herb, to ambient and elevated spring temperatures and atmospheric CO2 conditions in a factorial growth chamber experiment. At 5 wk, leaves were larger at high temperature, and shoot biomass increased under elevated CO2 only at high temperature in both species. As temperatures gradually warmed to simulate seasonal progression, G. vernum became responsive to CO2 at both temperatures, whereas A. petiolata continued to respond to elevated CO2 only at high temperature. Elevated CO2 increased thickness and decreased nitrogen concentrations in leaves of both species. Alliaria petiolata showed photosynthetic downregulation at elevated CO2, whereas G. vernum photosynthesis increased at elevated temperature. Flavonoid and cyanide concentrations decreased significantly in A. petiolata leaves in the elevated CO2 and temperature treatment. Total glucosinolate concentrations and trypsin inhibitor activities did not vary among treatments. Future elevated spring temperatures and CO2 will interact to stimulate growth for A. petiolata and G. vernum, but there may be reduced allelochemical effects in A. petiolata.

  2. Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

  3. Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionan Marigómez

    Full Text Available In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16-24°C, winter: 12-20°C, summer: 20-28°C and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution.

  4. Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alireza, Shahabfar

    2004-01-01

    In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)

  5. Few apparent short-term effects of elevated soil temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation on the abundance and taxonomic diversity of desert soil micro- and meso-fauna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darby, B.J.; Neher, D.A.; Housman, D.C.; Belnap, J.

    2011-01-01

    Frequent hydration and drying of soils in arid systems can accelerate desert carbon and nitrogen mobilization due to respiration, microbial death, and release of intracellular solutes. Because desert microinvertebrates can mediate nutrient cycling, and the autotrophic components of crusts are known to be sensitive to rapid desiccation due to elevated temperatures after wetting events, we studied whether altered soil temperature and frequency of summer precipitation can also affect the composition of food web consumer functional groups. We conducted a two-year field study with experimentally-elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation in the Colorado Plateau desert, measuring the change in abundance of nematodes, protozoans, and microarthropods. We hypothesized that microfauna would be more adversely affected by the combination of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than either effect alone, as found previously for phototrophic crust biota. Microfauna experienced normal seasonal fluctuations in abundance, but the effect of elevated temperature and frequency of summer precipitation was statistically non-significant for most microfaunal groups, except amoebae. The seasonal increase in abundance of amoebae was reduced with combined elevated temperature and increased frequency of summer precipitation compared to either treatment alone, but comparable with control (untreated) plots. Based on our findings, we suggest that desert soil microfauna are relatively more tolerant to increases in ambient temperature and frequency of summer precipitation than the autotrophic components of biological soil crust at the surface.

  6. Thermal stability of a highly-deformed warm-rolled tungsten plate in the temperature range 1100 °C to 1250 °C

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alfonso Lopez, Angel; Juul Jensen, Dorte; Luo, G.-N.

    2015-01-01

    plastic strain by 90% thickness reduction was investigated by isothermal annealing for up to 190 h in the temperature range between 1100 °C and 1250 °C. Vickers hardness testing allowed tracking the changes in mechanical properties caused by recovery and recrystallization. The hardness evolution could......Pure tungsten is considered as armor material for the most critical parts of fusion reactors (i.e. the divertor and the first wall), among other reasons due to its high melting point (3422 °C) and recrystallization temperature. The thermal stability of a pure tungsten plate warm-rolled to a high...... suggest that large plastic deformations (e.g. applied during shaping) are only suitable to produce tungsten components to be used at relatively low temperatures (up to 900 °C for a 2 years lifespan). Higher operation temperatures will lead to fast degradation of the microstructure during operation....

  7. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  8. Keeping cool on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence

  9. Changes in Summer Pressure Patterns across the Late 1960s and Their Influence on Temperature Trends on the Eastern Coast of the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicent Favà

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available During the second half of the 20th century, in the littoral and pre-littoral areas of the Valencia region, the diurnal temperature range (DTR registered a significant drop in summer (July and August. Meanwhile, in the same period in the lower Ebro Valley (Ebro Observatory, to the north of the Valencia region, the maximum temperature and DTR increased steeply. In order to explain the DTR drop in the coastal areas of the Valencia region, some studies have proposed an increase in the summer sea-surface temperature (SST and others have attributed it to the urban heat island effect. Nevertheless, this drop occurred well before the current climate change was evident and therefore, before the rise of the SST. Furthermore, regarding the second proposed explanation, the drop in the DTR does not disappear when working with selected stations away from heavily urbanized areas. In this work, we propose that both the DTR rise at the Ebro Observatory and the DTR drop in the Valencia region are linked to the same process: changes in atmospheric circulation on a synoptic-scale in the North Atlantic that occurred in the late 1960s.

  10. Responses of trophic structure and zooplankton community to salinity and temperature in Tibetan lakes: Implication for the effect of climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Qiuqi; Xu, Lei; Hou, Juzhi; Liu, Zhengwen; Jeppesen, Erik; Han, Bo-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Warming has pronounced effects on lake ecosystems, either directly by increased temperatures or indirectly by a change in salinity. We investigated the current status of zooplankton communities and trophic structure in 45 Tibetan lakes along a 2300 m altitude and a 76 g/l salinity gradient. Freshwater to hyposaline lakes mainly had three trophic levels: phytoplankton, small zooplankton and fish/Gammarus, while mesosaline to hypersaline lakes only had two: phytoplankton and large zooplankton. Zooplankton species richness declined significantly with salinity, but did not relate with temperature. Furthermore, the decline in species richness with salinity in lakes with two trophic levels was much less abrupt than in lakes with three trophic levels. The structural variation of the zooplankton community depended on the length of the food chain, and was significantly explained by salinity as the critical environmental variable. The zooplankton community shifted from dominance of copepods and small cladoceran species in the lakes with low salinity and three trophic levels to large saline filter-feeding phyllopod species in those lakes with high salinity and two trophic levels. The zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio was positively related with temperature in two-trophic-level systems and vice versa in three-trophic-level systems. As the Tibetan Plateau is warming about three times faster than the global average, our results imply that warming could have a considerable impact on the structure and function of Tibetan lake ecosystems, either via indirect effects of salinization/desalinization on species richness, composition and trophic structure or through direct effects of water temperature on trophic interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Variability of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation during the Holocene and possible forcing mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fuzhi; Ma, Chunmei; Zhu, Cheng; Lu, Huayu; Zhang, Xiaojian; Huang, Kangyou; Guo, Tianhong; Li, Kaifeng; Li, Lan; Li, Bing; Zhang, Wenqing

    2018-03-01

    Projecting how the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall will change with global warming is essential for human sustainability. Reconstructing Holocene climate can provide critical insight into its forcing and future variability. However, quantitative reconstructions of Holocene summer precipitation are lacking for tropical and subtropical China, which is the core region of the EASM influence. Here we present high-resolution annual and summer rainfall reconstructions covering the whole Holocene based on the pollen record at Xinjie site from the lower Yangtze region. Summer rainfall was less seasonal and 30% higher than modern values at 10-6 cal kyr BP and gradually declined thereafter, which broadly followed the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Over the last two millennia, however, the summer rainfall has deviated from the downward trend of summer insolation. We argue that greenhouse gas forcing might have offset summer insolation forcing and contributed to the late Holocene rainfall anomaly, which is supported by the TraCE-21 ka transient simulation. Besides, tropical sea-surface temperatures could modulate summer rainfall by affecting evaporation of seawater. The rainfall pattern concurs with stalagmite and other proxy records from southern China but differs from mid-Holocene rainfall maximum recorded in arid/semiarid northern China. Summer rainfall in northern China was strongly suppressed by high-northern-latitude ice volume forcing during the early Holocene in spite of high summer insolation. In addition, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation might be responsible for droughts of northern China and floods of southern China during the late Holocene. Furthermore, quantitative rainfall reconstructions indicate that the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) simulations underestimate the magnitude of Holocene precipitation changes. Our results highlight the spatial and temporal variability of the Holocene EASM precipitation and potential forcing

  12. Underway pressure, temperature, and salinity data from the MOANA WAVE from the Pacific warm pool in support of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) from 02 February 1993 to 21 February 1993 (NODC Accession 9600090)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Pressure, temperature, and salinity data were collected while underway from the MOANA WAVE from the Pacific warm pool. Data were collected in support of the Coupled...

  13. Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric eGazeau

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of ocean acidification and warming on the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis, specimens were reared in aquarium tanks and exposed to elevated conditions of temperature (+3 °C and acidity (-0.3 pH units for a period of 10 months. The whole system comprised a factorial experimental design with 4 treatments (3 aquaria per treatment: control, lowered pH, elevated temperature and lowered pH/elevated temperature. Mortality was estimated on a weekly basis and every 2 months, various biometrical parameters and physiological processes were measured: somatic and shell growth, metabolic rates and body fluid acid-base parameters. Mussels were highly sensitive to warming, with 100 % mortality observed under elevated temperature at the end of our experiment in October. Mortality rates increased drastically in summer, when water temperature exceeded 25 °C. In contrast, our results suggest that survival of this species will not be affected by a pH decrease of ~0.3 in the Mediterranean Sea. Somatic and shell growth did not appear very sensitive to ocean acidification and warming during most of the experiment, but were reduced, after summer, in the lowered pH treatment. This was consistent with measured shell net dissolution and observed loss of periostracum, as well as uncompensated extracellular acidosis in the lowered pH treatment indicating a progressive insufficiency in acid-base regulation capacity. However, based on the present dataset, we cannot elucidate if these decreases in growth and regulation capacities after summer are a consequence of lower pH levels during that period or a consequence of a combined effect of acidification and warming. To summarize, while ocean acidification will potentially contribute to lower growth rates, especially in summer when mussels are exposed to sub-optimal conditions, ocean warming will likely pose more serious threats to Mediterranean mussels in this region in the coming

  14. The effects of early age thermal conditioning and vinegar supplementation of drinking water on physiological responses of female and male broiler chickens reared under summer Mediterranean temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrama, Zahra; Temim, Soraya; Djellout, Baya; Souames, Samir; Moula, Nassim; Ain Baziz, Hassina

    2018-06-01

    The effects of early age thermal conditioning (ETC), vinegar supplementation (VS) of drinking water, broilers' gender, and their interactions on respiratory rate, body temperature, and blood parameters (biochemical, hematological, and thyroid hormones) of broiler chickens reared under high ambient temperatures were determined. A total of 1100 1-day-old chicks were divided into four treatments: the "control" which were non-conditioned and non-supplemented; "heat-conditioned" which were exposed to 38 ± 1 °C for 24 h at 5 days of age; "vinegar supplemented" which were given drinking water supplemented with 0.2% of commercial vinegar from 28 to 49 days of age; and "combined" which were both heat conditioned and vinegar supplemented. All groups were exposed to the natural fluctuations of summer ambient temperature (average diurnal ambient temperature of about 30 ± 1 °C and average relative humidity of 58 ± 5%). ETC and broiler gender did not affect the respiratory rate or body temperature of chronic heat-exposed chickens. VS changed the body temperature across time (d35, d42, d49) (linear and quadratic effects, P stressed chickens were observed. However, the expected cumulative positive responses when the two treatments were combined were not evident.

  15. The effects of early age thermal conditioning and vinegar supplementation of drinking water on physiological responses of female and male broiler chickens reared under summer Mediterranean temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrama, Zahra; Temim, Soraya; Djellout, Baya; Souames, Samir; Moula, Nassim; Ain Baziz, Hassina

    2018-02-01

    The effects of early age thermal conditioning (ETC), vinegar supplementation (VS) of drinking water, broilers' gender, and their interactions on respiratory rate, body temperature, and blood parameters (biochemical, hematological, and thyroid hormones) of broiler chickens reared under high ambient temperatures were determined. A total of 1100 1-day-old chicks were divided into four treatments: the "control" which were non-conditioned and non-supplemented; "heat-conditioned" which were exposed to 38 ± 1 °C for 24 h at 5 days of age; "vinegar supplemented" which were given drinking water supplemented with 0.2% of commercial vinegar from 28 to 49 days of age; and "combined" which were both heat conditioned and vinegar supplemented. All groups were exposed to the natural fluctuations of summer ambient temperature (average diurnal ambient temperature of about 30 ± 1 °C and average relative humidity of 58 ± 5%). ETC and broiler gender did not affect the respiratory rate or body temperature of chronic heat-exposed chickens. VS changed the body temperature across time (d35, d42, d49) (linear and quadratic effects, P physiological responses induced by ETC and VS, separately or in association, on chronically heat-stressed chickens were observed. However, the expected cumulative positive responses when the two treatments were combined were not evident.

  16. Spring-Summer Temperatures Since AD 1780 Reconstructed from Stable Oxygen Isotope Ratios in White Spruce Tree-Rings from the Mackenzie Delta, Northwestern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Trevor J.; Pisaric, Michael F. J.; Field, Robert D.; Kokelj, Steven V.; Edwards, Thomas W. D.; deMontigny, Peter; Healy, Richard; LeGrande, Allegra N.

    2013-01-01

    High-latitude delta(exp 18)O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring delta(exp 18)O record (AD 1780-2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892-2003), tree-ring delta(exp 18)O explained 29% of interannual variability in April-July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the delta(exp 18)O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the delta(exp 18)O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric delta(exp 18)O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other delta(exp 18)O records from this region. Our delta(exp 18)O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region.

  17. Long-term responses of the endemic reef-builder Cladocora caespitosa to Mediterranean warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego K Kersting

    Full Text Available Recurrent climate-induced mass-mortalities have been recorded in the Mediterranean Sea over the past 15 years. Cladocora caespitosa, the sole zooxanthellate scleractinian reef-builder in the Mediterranean, is among the organisms affected by these episodes. Extensive bioconstructions of this endemic coral are very rare at the present time and are threatened by several stressors. In this study, we assessed the long-term response of this temperate coral to warming sea-water in the Columbretes Islands (NW Mediterranean and described, for the first time, the relationship between recurrent mortality events and local sea surface temperature (SST regimes in the Mediterranean Sea. A water temperature series spanning more than 20 years showed a summer warming trend of 0.06°C per year and an increased frequency of positive thermal anomalies. Mortality resulted from tissue necrosis without massive zooxanthellae loss and during the 11-year study, necrosis was recorded during nine summers separated into two mortality periods (2003-2006 and 2008-2012. The highest necrosis rates were registered during the first mortality period, after the exceptionally hot summer of 2003. Although necrosis and temperature were significantly associated, the variability in necrosis rates during summers with similar thermal anomalies pointed to other acting factors. In this sense, our results showed that these differences were more closely related to the interannual temperature context and delayed thermal stress after extreme summers, rather than to acclimatisation and adaption processes.

  18. Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2, prolonged summer drought and temperature increase on N2O and CH4 fluxes in a temperate heathland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carter, Mette Sustmann; Ambus, Per; Albert, Kristian Rost

    2011-01-01

    In temperate regions, climate change is predicted to increase annual mean temperature and intensify the duration and frequency of summer droughts, which together with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, may affect the exchange of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) between...... terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. We report results from the CLIMAITE experiment, where the effects of these three climate change parameters were investigated solely and in all combinations in a temperate heathland. Field measurements of N2O and CH4 fluxes took place 1–2 years after the climate...... change manipulations were initiated. The soil was generally a net sink for atmospheric CH4. Elevated temperature (T) increased the CH4 uptake by on average 10 μg C m−2 h−1, corresponding to a rise in the uptake rate of about 20%. However, during winter elevated CO2 (CO2) reduced the CH4 uptake, which...

  19. Summer Appendicitis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hanumantp

    The increasing number of “fast food” restaurants where mainly high‑carbohydrate ... factors, food culture and the effect of migration for touristic purposes during the summer. .... Lal A, Hales S, French N, Baker MG. Seasonality in human.

  20. Effect of a warm footbath before bedtime on body temperature and sleep in older adults with good and poor sleep: an experimental crossover trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Wen-Chun; Wang, Lee; Kuo, Ching-Pyng; Lo, Chyi; Chiu, Ming-Jang; Ting, Hua

    2013-12-01

    The decrease in core body temperature before sleep onset and during sleep is associated with dilation of peripheral blood vessels, which permits heat dissipation from the body core to the periphery. A lower core temperature coupled with a higher distal (hands and feet) temperature before sleep are associated with shorter sleep latency and better sleep quality. A warm footbath is thought to facilitate heat dissipation to improve sleep outcomes. This study examined the effect of a warm footbath (40°C water temperature, 20-min duration) on body temperature and sleep in older adults (≥55 years) with good and poor sleep. Two groups and an experimental crossover design was used. Forty-three adults responded to our flyer and 25 participants aged 59.8±3.7 years (poor sleeper with a Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score≥5=17; good sleepers with a Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index scoretemperatures (core, abdomen, and foot) and polysomnography recorded for 3 consecutive nights. The first night was for adaptation and sleep apnea screening. Participants were then randomly assigned to either the structured foot bathing first (second night) and non-bathing second (third night) condition or the non-bathing first (second night) and foot bathing second (third night) condition. A footbath before sleep significantly increased and retained foot temperatures in both good and poor sleepers. The pattern of core temperatures during foot bathing was gradually elevated (poor sleepers vs. good sleepers=+0.40±0.58°C vs. +0.66±0.17°C). There were no significant changes in polysomnographic sleep and perceived sleep quality between non-bathing and bathing nights for both groups. A footbath of 40°C water temperature and 20-min duration before sleep onset increases foot temperatures and distal-proximal skin temperature gradients to facilitate vessel dilatation and elevates core temperature to provide heat load to the body. This footbath does not alter sleep in older adults with good and

  1. Extreme High-Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low-Warming Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Donghuan; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei; Zhang, Wenxia; Zhang, Lixia

    2018-02-01

    Extreme high-temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high-temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low-warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%-46% of the increases in extreme high-temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%-49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C.

  2. Warming and Acidification Induced Mass Mortality of a Coastal Keystone predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melzner, F.; Findeisen, U.

    2016-02-01

    The Baltic Sea is characterized by low salinity and pronounced fluctuations in pCO2. On-line monitoring of pCO2 in 2014 in Kiel Fjord demonstrated occurrence of peak values of >2,000 µatm in summer and autumn and average values >750 µatm. We assessed the impacts of elevated temperature (ambient temperature, ambient +3°C) and pCO2 (500, 1,500, 2,400 µatm) on the keystone species Asterias rubens in a fully crossed long - term experiment (N=5 replicate tanks each, 1 year duration). During spring and early summer (February - June), high temperature animals ingested significantly more food and spawned significantly earlier (April 30th) than ambient acclimated animals (May 23rd). Elevated pCO2 led to comparatively minor reductions in food intake and scope for growth during that period. During summer (June - August), elevated temperature >25°C caused negative energy budgets and >95% mortality in the warm acclimated groups, while mortality was low in the ambient temperature groups. Our results indicate that A. rubens may benefit from increased temperature during colder months, yet dramatically suffer during summer heat waves in warm years. Meaningful experimental approaches to assess species vulnerability to climate change need to encompass all seasons and realistic abiotic stressor levels.

  3. Access to warm drinking water prevents rumen temperature drop without affecting in situ NDF disappearance in grazing winter range cows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingestion of large quantities of cold water or frozen forage may result in changes in temperature of ruminal contents. Rumen microorganisms may be sensitive to temperature changes in the ruminal environment. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the variability in ruminal temperature and e...

  4. Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming-correlated genetic admixture and population-specific temperature adaptations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krehenwinkel, Henrik; Tautz, Diethard

    2013-04-01

    Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range-wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small-scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Processes of 30–90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vialard, J.; Jayakumar, A; Gnanaseelan, C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sengupta, D.; Goswami, B.N.

    Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal...

  6. Differential temperature preferences and thresholds among summer campers in Ontario's southern provincial parks: a Canadian case study in tourism climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

    2017-08-01

    Weather and climate are important factors in relation to outdoor recreation and tourism. Camping and park visitation are weather sensitive activities very likely to be impacted by projected climate change. Temperature is the weather variable that has received the greatest attention within the tourism climatology literature and was the greatest predictor of park visitation within previous assessments. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach, relying on survey-based data, to explore differences for temperature preferences and thresholds among campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences (at the 95% confidence level) in mean values for temperature preferences and thresholds were recorded based on various camper characteristics, such as the following: activity selection, age, gender, distance travelled, length of stay, life cycle stage, camping experience, and camping equipment. Swimmers preferred warmer day-time temperatures. Older campers preferred cooler temperatures and were more sensitive to heat stress, in the day and night time. Females preferred warmer temperatures and were less sensitive to heat stress during the night time. Campers who had travelled further distances to reach the park or planned to stay for longer periods were less sensitive to heat stress. Campers with children in their group preferred warmer temperatures and were less sensitive to heat stress, in the day and at night. Respondents with higher levels of camping experience preferred warmer temperatures at night. Tent campers were less sensitive to heat stress, in the day and at night. The results of this study have direct implications for previous and future climate change impact assessments on park visitation.

  7. Three responses to small changes in stream temperature by autumn-emerging aquatic insects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judith L. Li; Sherri L. Johnson; Janel Banks. Sobota

    2011-01-01

    In this experimental study, conducted in coastal Oregon USA, we examined how small increases in summer water temperatures affected aquatic insect growth and autumn emergence. We maintained naturally fluctuating temperatures from 2 nearby streams and a 3rd regime, naturally fluctuating temperatures warmed by 3-5°C, in flow-through troughs from mid...

  8. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  9. Response of biological soil crust diazotrophs to season, altered summer precipitation and year-round increased temperature in an arid grassland of the Colorado Plateau, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris M Yeager

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological soil crusts (biocrusts, which supply significant amounts of fixed nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems worldwide (~33 Tg y-1, are likely to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Using nifH gene-based surveys, we explored variation in the diazotrophic community of biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau, USA in response to season (autumn vs. spring, as well as field manipulations that increased the frequency of small-volume precipitation events and year-round soil temperature. Abundance of nifH genes in biocrusts ranged from 3x106 – 1x108 g-1 soil, and nifH from heterocystous cyanobacteria closely related to Scytonema hyalinum, Spirirestis rafaelensis, and Nostoc commune comprised > 98% of the total. Although there was no apparent seasonal effect on total nifH gene abundance in the biocrusts, T-RFLP analysis revealed a strong seasonal pattern in nifH composition. Spirirestis nifH abundance was estimated to oscillate 1 to >2 orders of magnitude between autumn (low and spring (high. A year-round increase of soil temperature (2 − 3 °C had little effect on the diazotroph community structure over 2 years. Altered summer precipitation had little impact on diazotroph community structure over the first 1.5 years of the study, when natural background patterns across years and seasons superseded any treatment effects. However, after the second summer of treatments, nifH abundance was 2.6 fold lower in biocrusts receiving altered precipitation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria were apparently more resilient to altered precipitation than other cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that diazotrophic community composition of biocrusts in this semi-arid grassland undergoes strong seasonal shifts and that the abundance of its dominant members decreased in response to more frequent, small-volume precipitation events.

  10. Response of biological soil crust diazotrophs to season, altered summer precipitation, and year-round increased temperature in an arid grassland of the Colorado Plateau, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeager, Chris M.; Kuske, Cheryl R.; Carney, Travis D.; Johnson, Shannon L.; Ticknor, Lawrence O.; Belnap, Jayne

    2012-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), which supply significant amounts of fixed nitrogen into terrestrial ecosystems worldwide (~33Tg y-1), are likely to respond to changes in temperature and precipitation associated with climate change. Using nifH gene-based surveys, we explored variation in the diazotrophic community of biocrusts of the Colorado Plateau, USA in response to season (autumn vs. spring), as well as field manipulations that increased the frequency of small volume precipitation events and year-round soil temperature. Abundance of nifH genes in biocrusts ranged from 3×106 to 1×8 g-1 soil, and nifH from heterocystous cyanobacteria closely related to Scytonema hyalinum, Spirirestis rafaelensis, and Nostoc commune comprised >98% of the total. Although there was no apparent seasonal effect on total nifH gene abundance in the biocrusts, T-RFLP analysis revealed a strong seasonal pattern in nifH composition. Spirirestis nifH abundance was estimated to oscillate 1 to >2 orders of magnitude between autumn (low) and spring (high). A year-round increase of soil temperature (2–3°C) had little effect on the diazotroph community structure over 2 years. Altered summer precipitation had little impact on diazotroph community structure over the first 1.5years of the study, when natural background patterns across years and seasons superseded any treatment effects. However, after the second summer of treatments, nifH abundance was 2.6-fold lower in biocrusts receiving altered precipitation. Heterocystous cyanobacteria were apparently more resilient to altered precipitation than other cyanobacteria. The results demonstrate that diazotrophic community composition of biocrusts in this semi-arid grassland undergoes strong seasonal shifts and that the abundance of its dominant members decreased in response to more frequent, small volume precipitation events.

  11. Semidiurnal Temperature Changes Caused by Tidal Front Movements in the Warm Season in Seabed Habitats on the Georges Bank Northern Margin and Their Ecological Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Vincent G.; Valentine, Page C.; Gallea, Leslie B.

    2013-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow feature separating the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies demonstrated a strong tidal-mixing front during the warm season on the northern bank margin between thermally stratified water in the Gulf of Maine and mixed water on the bank. Tides transport warm water off the bank during flood tide and cool gulf water onto the bank during ebb tide. During 10 days in August 2009, we mapped frontal temperatures in five study areas along ∼100 km of the bank margin. The seabed “frontal zone”, where temperature changed with frontal movment, experienced semidiurnal temperature maxima and minima. The tidal excursion of the frontal boundary between stratified and mixed water ranged 6 to 10 km. This “frontal boundary zone” was narrower than the frontal zone. Along transects perpendicular to the bank margin, seabed temperature change at individual sites ranged from 7.0°C in the frontal zone to 0.0°C in mixed bank water. At time series in frontal zone stations, changes during tidal cycles ranged from 1.2 to 6.1°C. The greatest rate of change (−2.48°C hr−1) occurred at mid-ebb. Geographic plots of seabed temperature change allowed the mapping of up to 8 subareas in each study area. The magnitude of temperature change in a subarea depended on its location in the frontal zone. Frontal movement had the greatest effect on seabed temperature in the 40 to 80 m depth interval. Subareas experiencing maximum temperature change in the frontal zone were not in the frontal boundary zone, but rather several km gulfward (off-bank) of the frontal boundary zone. These results provide a new ecological framework for examining the effect of tidally-driven temperature variability on the distribution, food resources, and reproductive success of benthic invertebrate and demersal fish species living in tidal front habitats. PMID:23405129

  12. Summer to Winter Diurnal Variabilities of Temperature and Water Vapour in the Lowermost Troposphere as Observed by HAMSTRAD over Dome C, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaud, P.; Genthon, C.; Durand, P.; Attié, J.-L.; Carminati, F.; Canut, G.; Vanacker, J.-F.; Moggio, L.; Courcoux, Y.; Pellegrini, A.; Rose, T.

    2012-04-01

    The HAMSTRAD (H2O Antarctica Microwave Stratospheric and Tropospheric Radiometers) microwave radiometer operating at 60 GHz (oxygen line, thus temperature) and 183 GHz (water vapour line) has been permanently deployed at the Dome C station, Concordia, Antarctica [75°06'S, 123°21'E, 3,233 m above mean sea level] in January 2010 to study long-term trends in tropospheric absolute humidity and temperature. The great sensitivity of the instrument in the lowermost troposphere helped to characterize the diurnal cycle of temperature and H2O from the austral summer (January 2010) to the winter (June 2010) seasons from heights of 10 to 200 m in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The study has characterized the vertical resolution of the HAMSTRAD measurements: 10-20 m for temperature and 25-50 m for H2O. A strong diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O (although noisier) has been measured in summertime at 10 m, decreasing in amplitude with height, and phase-shifted by about 4 h above 50 m with a strong H2O-temperature correlation (>0.8) throughout the entire PBL. In autumn, whilst the diurnal cycle in temperature and H2O is less intense, a 12-h phase shift is observed above 30 m. In wintertime, a weak diurnal signal measured between 10 to 200 m is attributed to the methodology employed, which consists of monthly averaged data, and that combines air masses from different origins (sampling effect) and not to the imprint of the null solar irradiation. In situ sensors scanning the entire 24-h period, radiosondes launched at 2000 local solar time (LST) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses at 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 LST agree very well with the HAMSTRAD diurnal cycles for temperature and relatively well for absolute humidity. For temperature, HAMSTRAD tends to be consistent with all the other datasets but shows a smoother vertical profile from 10 to 100 m compared to radiosondes and in-situ data, with ECMWF profiles even smoother than HAMSTRAD

  13. Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

    2017-10-12

    Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

  14. Average-atom model for two-temperature states and ionic transport properties of aluminum in the warm dense matter regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yong; Fu, Yongsheng; Bredow, Richard; Kang, Dongdong; Redmer, Ronald; Yuan, Jianmin

    2017-03-01

    The average-atom model combined with the hyper-netted chain approximation is an efficient tool for electronic and ionic structure calculations for warm dense matter. Here we generalize this method in order to describe non-equilibrium states with different electron and ion temperature as produced in laser-matter interactions on ultra-short time scales. In particular, the electron-ion and ion-ion correlation effects are considered when calculating the electron structure. We derive an effective ion-ion pair-potential using the electron densities in the framework of temperature-depended density functional theory. Using this ion-ion potential we perform molecular dynamics simulations in order to determine the ionic transport properties such as the ionic diffusion coefficient and the shear viscosity through the ionic velocity autocorrelation functions.

  15. Optimization of the level and range of working temperature of the PCM in the gypsum-microencapsulated PCM thermal energy storage unit for summer conditions in Central Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łapka, P.; Jaworski, M.

    2017-10-01

    In this paper thermal energy storage (TES) unit in a form of a ceiling panel made of gypsum-microencapsulated PCM composite with internal U-shaped channels was considered and optimal characteristics of the microencapsulated PCM were determined. This panel may be easily incorporated into, e.g., an office or residential ventilation system in order to reduce daily variations of air temperature during the summer without additional costs related to the consumption of energy for preparing air parameters to the desired level. For the purpose of the analysis of heat transfer in the panel, a novel numerical simulator was developed. The numerical model consists of two coupled parts, i.e., the 1D which deals with the air flowing through the U-shaped channel and the 3D which deals with heat transfer in the body of the panel. The computational tool was validated based on the experimental study performed on the special set-up. Using this tool an optimization of parameters of the gypsum-microencapsulated PCM composite was performed in order to determine its most appropriate properties for the application under study. The analyses were performed for averaged local summer conditions in Warsaw, Poland.

  16. Effectiveness of oxygen barrier oven bags in low temperature cooking on reduction of warmed-over flavor in beef roasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepper-Blilie, A N; Berg, E P; Buchanan, D S; Keller, W L; Maddock-Carlin, K R; Berg, P T

    2014-03-01

    A 3×3×2 factorial was utilized to determine if roast size (small, medium, large), cooking method (open-pan, oven bag, vacuum bag), and heating process (fresh, reheated) prevented warmed-over flavor (WOF) in beef clod roasts. Fresh vacuum bag and reheated open-pan roasts had higher cardboardy flavor scores compared with fresh open-pan roast scores. Reheated roasts in oven and vacuum bags did not differ from fresh roasts for cardboardy flavor. Brothy and fat intensity were increased in reheated roasts in oven and vacuum bags compared with fresh roasts in oven and vacuum bags. Differences in TBARS were found in the interaction of heating process and roast size with the fresh and reheated large, and reheated medium roasts having the lowest values. Based on TBARS data, to prevent WOF in reheated beef roasts, a larger size roast in a cooking bag is the most effective method. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Weiwei, E-mail: weiwei.yu@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [Discipline of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Hu Wenbiao [School of Population Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, University of Queensland, Brisbane (Australia); Guo Yuming [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Pan Xiaochuan [School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191 (China); Tong Shilu, E-mail: s.tong@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 deg. C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 deg. C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality. - Highlights: > A longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. > The very old people were most vulnerable to temperature stress. > The cardiovascular mortality was also sensitive to the temperature variation. - In Brisbane, the lag effects lasted longer for cold temperatures, and shorter for hot temperatures. Elderly people and cardiovascular mortality were vulnerable to temperature stress.

  18. Experimental warming differentially affects microbial structure and activity in two contrasted moisture sites in a Sphagnum-dominated peatland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delarue, Frédéric; Buttler, Alexandre; Bragazza, Luca; Grasset, Laurent; Jassey, Vincent E J; Gogo, Sébastien; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima

    2015-04-01

    Several studies on the impact of climate warming have indicated that peat decomposition/mineralization will be enhanced. Most of these studies deal with the impact of experimental warming during summer when prevalent abiotic conditions are favorable to decomposition. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental air warming by open-top chambers (OTCs) on water-extractable organic matter (WEOM), microbial biomasses and enzymatic activities in two contrasted moisture sites named Bog and Fen sites, the latter considered as the wetter ones. While no or few changes in peat temperature and water content appeared under the overall effect of OTCs, we observed that air warming smoothed water content differences and led to a decrease in mean peat temperature at the warmed Bog sites. This thermal discrepancy between the two sites led to contrasting changes in microbial structure and activities: a rise in hydrolytic activity at the warmed Bog sites and a relative enhancement of bacterial biomass at the warmed Fen sites. These features were not associated with any change in WEOM properties namely carbon and sugar contents and aromaticity, suggesting that air warming did not trigger any shift in OM decomposition. Using various tools, we show that the use of single indicators of OM decomposition can lead to fallacious conclusions. Lastly, these patterns may change seasonally as a consequence of complex interactions between groundwater level and air warming, suggesting the need to improve our knowledge using a high time-resolution approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to long-term warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert T. Barrett

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that Arctic plants typically respond to warming with increased growth and reproductive effort and accelerated phenology, and that the magnitude of these responses is likely to change over time. We investigated the effects of long-term experimental warming on plant growth (leaf length and reproduction (inflorescence height, reproductive phenology and reproductive effort using 17–19 years of measurements collected as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX at sites near Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska. During the study period, linear regressions indicated non-significant tendencies towards warming air temperatures at our study sites. Results of our meta-analyses on the effect size of experimental warming (calculated as Hedges’ d indicated species generally responded to warming by increasing inflorescence height, increasing leaf length and flowering earlier, while reproductive effort did not respond consistently. Using weighted least-squares regressions on effect sizes, we found a significant trend towards dampened response to experimental warming over time for reproductive phenology. This tendency was consistent, though non-significant, across all traits. A separate analysis revealed significant trends towards reduced responses to experimental warming during warmer summers for all traits. We therefore propose that tendencies towards dampened plant responses to experimental warming over time are the result of regional warming. These results show that Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to warming over long periods of time but also suggest that, as the region continues to warm, factors such as nutrient availability, competition and herbivory will become more limiting to plant growth and reproduction than temperature.

  20. Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on deriving anthropogenic warming rates from the instrumental temperature record

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Werf, G.R.; Dolman, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    The instrumental surface air temperature record has been used in several statistical studies to assess the relative role of natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate change. The results of those studies varied considerably, with anthropogenic temperature trends over the past 25-30 years suggested

  1. Human influence on Canadian temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Hui; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis

    2018-02-01

    Canada has experienced some of the most rapid warming on Earth over the past few decades with a warming rate about twice that of the global mean temperature since 1948. Long-term warming is observed in Canada's annual, winter and summer mean temperatures, and in the annual coldest and hottest daytime and nighttime temperatures. The causes of these changes are assessed by comparing observed changes with climate model simulated responses to anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) external forcings. Most of the observed warming of 1.7 °C increase in annual mean temperature during 1948-2012 [90% confidence interval (1.1°, 2.2 °C)] can only be explained by external forcing on the climate system, with anthropogenic influence being the dominant factor. It is estimated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed 1.0 °C (0.6°, 1.5 °C) and natural external forcing has contributed 0.2 °C (0.1°, 0.3 °C) to the observed warming. Up to 0.5 °C of the observed warming trend may be associated with low frequency variability of the climate such as that represented by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Overall, the influence of both anthropogenic and natural external forcing is clearly evident in Canada-wide mean and extreme temperatures, and can also be detected regionally over much of the country.

  2. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  3. Eutrophication and Warming Boost Cyanobacterial Biomass and Microcystins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miquel Lürling

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Eutrophication and warming are key drivers of cyanobacterial blooms, but their combined effects on microcystin (MC concentrations are less studied. We tested the hypothesis that warming promotes cyanobacterial abundance in a natural plankton community and that eutrophication enhances cyanobacterial biomass and MC concentrations. We incubated natural seston from a eutrophic pond under normal, high, and extreme temperatures (i.e., 20, 25, and 30 °C with and without additional nutrients added (eutrophication mimicking a pulse as could be expected from projected summer storms under climate change. Eutrophication increased algal- and cyanobacterial biomass by 26 and 8 times, respectively, and led to 24 times higher MC concentrations. This effect was augmented with higher temperatures leading to 45 times higher MC concentrations at 25 °C, with 11 times more cyanobacterial chlorophyll-a and 25 times more eukaryote algal chlorophyll-a. At 30 °C, MC concentrations were 42 times higher, with cyanobacterial chlorophyll-a being 17 times and eukaryote algal chlorophyll-a being 24 times higher. In contrast, warming alone did not yield more cyanobacteria or MCs, because the in situ community had already depleted the available nutrient pool. MC per potential MC producing cell declined at higher temperatures under nutrient enrichments, which was confirmed by a controlled experiment with two laboratory strains of Microcystis aeruginosa. Nevertheless, MC concentrations were much higher at the increased temperature and nutrient treatment than under warming alone due to strongly promoted biomass, lifting N-imitation and promotion of potential MC producers like Microcystis. This study exemplifies the vulnerability of eutrophic urban waters to predicted future summer climate change effects that might aggravate cyanobacterial nuisance.

  4. Epipodial Tentacle Gene Expression and Predetermined Resilience to Summer Mortality in the Commercially Important Greenlip Abalone, Haliotis laevigata.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiel, Brett P; Hall, Nathan E; Cooke, Ira R; Robinson, Nicholas A; Strugnell, Jan M

    2017-04-01

    "Summer mortality" is a phenomenon that occurs during warm water temperature spikes that results in the mass mortality of many ecologically and economically important mollusks such as abalone. This study aimed to determine whether the baseline gene expression of abalone before a laboratory-induced summer mortality event was associated with resilience to summer mortality. Tentacle transcriptomes of 35 greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) were sequenced prior to the animals being exposed to an increase in water temperature-simulating conditions which have previously resulted in summer mortality. Abalone derived from three source locations with different environmental conditions were categorized as susceptible or resistant to summer mortality depending on whether they died or survived after the water temperature was increased. We detected two genes showing significantly higher expression in resilient abalone relative to susceptible abalone prior to the laboratory-induced summer mortality event. One of these genes was annotated through the NCBI non-redundant protein database using BLASTX to an anemone (Exaiptasia pallida) Transposon Ty3-G Gag Pol polyprotein. Distinct gene expression signatures were also found between resilient and susceptible abalone depending on the population origin, which may suggest divergence in local adaptation mechanisms for resilience. Many of these genes have been suggested to be involved in antioxidant and immune-related functions. The identification of these genes and their functional roles have enhanced our understanding of processes that may contribute to summer mortality in abalone. Our study supports the hypothesis that prestress gene expression signatures are indicative of the likelihood of summer mortality.

  5. Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

  6. Effects of experimental warming and nitrogen addition on soil respiration and CH4 fluxes from crop rotations of winter wheat–soybean/fallow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration and CH4 emissions play a significant role in the global carbon balance. However, in situ studies in agricultural soils on responses of soil respiration and CH4 fluxes to climate warming are still sparse, especially from long-term studies with year-round heating. A warming...... by affecting soil NH4 concentration. Across years, CH4 emissions were negatively correlated with soil temperature in N1 treatment. Soil respiration showed clear seasonal fluctuations, with the largest emissions during summer and smallest in winter. Warming and nitrogen fertilization had no significant effects...... on total cumulative soil CO2 fluxes. Soil respiration was positively correlated with microbial biomass C, and microbial biomass C was not affected significantly by warming or nitrogen addition. The lack of significant effects of warming on soil respiration may have resulted from: (1) warming-induced soil...

  7. Murder or not? Cold temperature makes criminals appear to be cold-blooded and warm temperature to be hot-headed.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Gockel

    Full Text Available Temperature-related words such as cold-blooded and hot-headed can be used to describe criminal behavior. Words associated with coldness describe premeditated behavior and words associated with heat describe impulsive behavior. Building on recent research about the close interplay between physical and interpersonal coldness and warmth, we examined in a lab experiment how ambient temperature within a comfort zone influences judgments of criminals. Participants in rooms with low temperature regarded criminals to be more cold-blooded than participants in rooms with high temperature. Specifically, they were more likely to attribute premeditated crimes, ascribed crimes resulting in higher degrees of penalty, and attributed more murders to criminals. Likewise, participants in rooms with high temperature regarded criminals to be more hot-headed than participants in rooms with low temperature: They were more likely to attribute impulsive crimes. Results imply that cognitive representations of temperature are closely related to representations of criminal behavior and attributions of intent.

  8. Murder or Not? Cold Temperature Makes Criminals Appear to Be Cold-Blooded and Warm Temperature to Be Hot-Headed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gockel, Christine; Kolb, Peter M.; Werth, Lioba

    2014-01-01

    Temperature-related words such as cold-blooded and hot-headed can be used to describe criminal behavior. Words associated with coldness describe premeditated behavior and words associated with heat describe impulsive behavior. Building on recent research about the close interplay between physical and interpersonal coldness and warmth, we examined in a lab experiment how ambient temperature within a comfort zone influences judgments of criminals. Participants in rooms with low temperature regarded criminals to be more cold-blooded than participants in rooms with high temperature. Specifically, they were more likely to attribute premeditated crimes, ascribed crimes resulting in higher degrees of penalty, and attributed more murders to criminals. Likewise, participants in rooms with high temperature regarded criminals to be more hot-headed than participants in rooms with low temperature: They were more likely to attribute impulsive crimes. Results imply that cognitive representations of temperature are closely related to representations of criminal behavior and attributions of intent. PMID:24788725

  9. Warm mid-Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the southern Tethys Ocean and cool high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Arctic Ocean: asymmetric worldwide distribution of dinoflagellates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masure, Edwige; Desmares, Delphine; Vrielynck, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Dealing with 87 articles and using a Geographical Information System, Masure and Vrielynck (2009) have mapped worldwide biogeography of 38 Late Albian dinoflagellate cysts and have demonstrated Cretaceous oceanic bioclimatic belts. For comparison 30 Aptian species derived from 49 studies (Masure et al., 2013) and 49 Cenomanian species recorded from 33 articles have been encountered. Tropical, Subtropical, Boreal, Austral, bipolar and cosmopolitan species have been identified and Cretaceous dinoflagellate biomes are introduced. Asymmetric distribution of Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian subtropical Tethyan species, from 40°N to 70°S, demonstrates asymmetric Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients with warm water masses in high latitudes of Southern Ocean. The SST gradients were stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. We note that Aptian and Late Albian/Cenomanian dinoflagellates restricted to subtropical and subpolar latitudes met and mixed at 35-40°N, while they mixed from 30°S to 70°S and from 50°S to 70°S respectively in the Southern Hemisphere. Mixing belts extend on 5° in the Northern Hemisphere and along 40° (Aptian) and 20° (Late Albian/Cenomanian) in the Southern one. The board southern mixing belt of Tethyan and Austral dinoflagellates suggest co-occurrence of warm and cold currents. We record climatic changes such as the Early Aptian cooler period and Late Aptian and Albian warming through the poleward migration of species constrained to cool water masses. These species sensitive to temperature migrated from 35°N to 55°N through the shallow Greenland-Norwergian Seaway connecting the Central Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. While Tethyan species did not migrate staying at 40°N. We suggest that the Greenland-Norwergian Seaway might has been a barrier until Late Albian/Cenomanian for oceanic Tethyan dinoflagellates stopped either by the shallow water column or temperature and salinity

  10. The phenology of Rubus fruticosus in Ireland: herbarium specimens provide evidence for the response of phenophases to temperature, with implications for climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diskin, E.; Proctor, H.; Jebb, M.; Sparks, T.; Donnelly, A.

    2012-11-01

    To date, phenological research has provided evidence that climate warming is impacting both animals and plants, evidenced by the altered timing of phenophases. Much of the evidence supporting these findings has been provided by analysis of historic records and present-day fieldwork; herbaria have been identified recently as an alternative source of phenological data. Here, we used Rubus specimens to evaluate herbaria as potential sources of phenological data for use in climate change research and to develop the methodology for using herbaria specimens in phenological studies. Data relevant to phenology (collection date) were recorded from the information cards of over 600 herbarium specimens at Ireland's National Herbarium in Dublin. Each specimen was assigned a score (0-5) corresponding to its phenophase. Temperature data for the study period (1852 - 2007) were obtained from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU); relationships between temperature and the dates of first flower, full flower, first fruit and full fruit were assessed using weighted linear regression. Of the five species of Rubus examined in this study, specimens of only one ( R. fruticosus) were sufficiently abundant to yield statistically significant relationships with temperature. The results revealed a trend towards earlier dates of first flower, full flower and first fruit phenophases with increasing temperature. Through its multi-phenophase approach, this research serves to extend the most recent work—which validated the use of herbaria through use of a single phenophase—to confirm herbarium-based research as a robust methodology for use in future phenological studies.

  11. Effects of Thermal Mass, Window Size, and Night-Time Ventilation on Peak Indoor Air Temperature in the Warm-Humid Climate of Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Amos-Abanyie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most office buildings in the warm-humid sub-Saharan countries experience high cooling load because of the predominant use of sandcrete blocks which are of low thermal mass in construction and extensive use of glazing. Relatively, low night-time temperatures are not harnessed in cooling buildings because office openings remain closed after