WorldWideScience

Sample records for warm season mortality

  1. Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

    2015-06-01

    Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

  2. Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B. [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Forestry

    1998-12-31

    The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat.

  3. Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.

    1998-01-01

    The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat

  4. Ocean warming and acidification synergistically increase coral mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prada, F.; Caroselli, E.; Mengoli, S.; Brizi, L.; Fantazzini, P.; Capaccioni, B.; Pasquini, L.; Fabricius, K. E.; Dubinsky, Z.; Falini, G.; Goffredo, S.

    2017-01-01

    Organisms that accumulate calcium carbonate structures are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA), potentially reducing the socioeconomic benefits of ecosystems reliant on these taxa. Since rising atmospheric CO2 is responsible for global warming and increasing ocean acidity, to correctly predict how OW and OA will affect marine organisms, their possible interactive effects must be assessed. Here we investigate, in the field, the combined temperature (range: 16-26 °C) and acidification (range: pHTS 8.1-7.4) effects on mortality and growth of Mediterranean coral species transplanted, in different seasonal periods, along a natural pH gradient generated by a CO2 vent. We show a synergistic adverse effect on mortality rates (up to 60%), for solitary and colonial, symbiotic and asymbiotic corals, suggesting that high seawater temperatures may have increased their metabolic rates which, in conjunction with decreasing pH, could have led to rapid deterioration of cellular processes and performance. The net calcification rate of the symbiotic species was not affected by decreasing pH, regardless of temperature, while in the two asymbiotic species it was negatively affected by increasing acidification and temperature, suggesting that symbiotic corals may be more tolerant to increasing warming and acidifying conditions compared to asymbiotic ones.

  5. The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  6. Performances of some warm-season turfgrasses under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-09-15

    Sep 15, 2009 ... Main characteristics of mediterranean climate are represented by mild, rainy ... the warm-season turfgrasses with low water use rate and. *Corresponding ..... Lawns and Golf, Sleeping Bear Press, Chelsea, MI. Busey P (2003).

  7. Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

  8. Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

    2015-01-01

    Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

  9. Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Methods: Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health...

  10. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  11. Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Bibi Uhre; Byberg, Stine; Aaby, Peter; Rodrigues, Amabelia; Benn, Christine Stabell; Fisker, Ane Baerent

    2017-07-01

    In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea-Bissau. Bandim health project follows children under-five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea-Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d-mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1-11 months, 12-59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa-4 software. From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two-thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45-58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d-mrr being 0.94 (0.86-1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46-1.69) in post-neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72-1.95) in under-five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self-confirmatory. The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatzen, Christoph

    2013-04-01

    A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

  13. Warm season grass establishment (in one year without the weeds)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.

    1998-01-01

    Native warm season grasses, big bluestem and indian, were established by the broadcast method on a relatively large area (130 acres) of reclaimed coal surface-mined land in Perry County, Illinois. Existing vegetation was controlled using two quarts of Round-Up and 12 ounces of Plateau per acre the first week of May. Five pounds of pure live seed of both species were applied by airflow using 100 pounds per acre of 0-46-0 and 100 pounds per acre of 0-0-60, primarily to carry the seed. The surface was cultipacked to insure good seed to soil contact. Planting was initiated and completed the last week of June. An estimated 95% to 100% ground cover was evident by mid to late August. By mid September, numerous big blue stem flower/seed stalks were noticeable

  14. Comparative growth analysis of cool- and warm-season grasses in a cool-temperate environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belesky, D.P.; Fedders, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    Using both cool-season (C3) and warm-season (C4) species is a viable means of optimizing herbage productivity over varying climatic conditions in temperate environments. Despite well-documented differences in water, N, and radiation use, no consistent evidence demonstrates productivity differences among C3 and C4 perennial grass species under identical management. A field study was conducted to determine relative growth rates (RGR), nitrogen productivity (NP), and mean radiation productivity (RP) (dry matter production as a function of incident radiation) of cool- and warm-season grasses managed identically. Results were used to identify management practices thd could lead to optimal productivity in combinations or mixtures of cool- and warm-season grasses. Dry matter yields of warm-season grasses equaled or surpassed those of cool-season grasses, despite a 40% shorter growth interval. Certain cool- and warm-season grasses appear to be suitable for use in mixtures, based on distribution of herbage production; however, actual compatibility may be altered by defoliation management. Relative growth rates varied among years and were about 40% lower for canopies clipped to a 10-cm residue height each time 20-cm of growth accumulated compared with other treatments. The RGR of warm-season grasses was twice that of cool-season grasses Nitrogen productivity (g DM g-1 N d -1) and mean radiation productivity (g DM MJ-1) for warm-season grasses was also more than twice that of cool-season grasses. Radiation productivity of cool-season grasses was dependent on N, while this was not always the case for warm-season grasses. The superior production capability of certain warm-season compared with cool-season grasses in a cool-temperate environment can be sustained under a range of defoliation treatments and demonstrates suitability for use in frequently defoliated situations

  15. Seasonality in mortality and its relationship to temperature among the older population in Hanoi, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Thi Thanh Xuan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Several studies have established a relationship between temperature and mortality. In particular, older populations have been shown to be vulnerable to temperature effects. However, little information exists on the temperature–mortality relationship in Vietnam. Objectives: This article aims to examine the monthly temperature–mortality relationship among older people in Hanoi, Vietnam, over the period between 2005 and 2010, and estimate seasonal patterns in mortality. Methods: We employed Generalized Additive Models, including smooth functions, to model the temperature–mortality relationships. A quasi-Poisson distribution was used to model overdispersion of death counts. Temporal trends, seasonality, and population size were adjusted for while estimating changes in monthly mortality over the study period. A cold month was defined as a month with a mean temperature below 19°C. Results: This study found that the high peak of mortality coincided with low temperatures in the month of February 2008, during which the mean temperature was the lowest in the whole study period. There was a significant relationship between mean monthly temperature and mortality among the older people (p<0.01. Overall, there was a significant decrease in the number of deaths in the year 2009 during the study period. There was a 21% increase in the number of deaths during the cold season compared to the warm season. The increase in mortality during the cold period was higher among females compared to males (female: IRR [incidence relative risk] =1.23; male: IRR=1.18. Conclusions: Cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the older population in Hanoi, Vietnam, and there were gender differences. Necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable groups.

  16. Warming and Acidification Induced Mass Mortality of a Coastal Keystone predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melzner, F.; Findeisen, U.

    2016-02-01

    The Baltic Sea is characterized by low salinity and pronounced fluctuations in pCO2. On-line monitoring of pCO2 in 2014 in Kiel Fjord demonstrated occurrence of peak values of >2,000 µatm in summer and autumn and average values >750 µatm. We assessed the impacts of elevated temperature (ambient temperature, ambient +3°C) and pCO2 (500, 1,500, 2,400 µatm) on the keystone species Asterias rubens in a fully crossed long - term experiment (N=5 replicate tanks each, 1 year duration). During spring and early summer (February - June), high temperature animals ingested significantly more food and spawned significantly earlier (April 30th) than ambient acclimated animals (May 23rd). Elevated pCO2 led to comparatively minor reductions in food intake and scope for growth during that period. During summer (June - August), elevated temperature >25°C caused negative energy budgets and >95% mortality in the warm acclimated groups, while mortality was low in the ambient temperature groups. Our results indicate that A. rubens may benefit from increased temperature during colder months, yet dramatically suffer during summer heat waves in warm years. Meaningful experimental approaches to assess species vulnerability to climate change need to encompass all seasons and realistic abiotic stressor levels.

  17. Nitrogen Fertilization Effect on Phosphorus Remediation Potential of Three Perennial Warm-Season Forages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Newman, Y.C.; Agyin-Birikorang, S.; Adjei, M.B.; Scholberg, J.M.S.; Silveira, M.L.; Vendramini, J.M.B.; Rechcigl, J.E.; Sollenberger, L.E.

    2009-01-01

    Warm-season C-4 grasses are capable of removing excess soil nutrients because of their high Yield potential and nutrient uptake efficiency. Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge), limpograss [Hemarthria altissima (Poir.) Stapf& Hubb], and stargrass (Cynodon nlemfuensis Vanderyst), three commonly

  18. Seasonal mortality variations of cardiovascular, respiratory and malignant diseases in the City of Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanišić-Stojić Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    cardiovascular diseases increased twice, namely at the end of June and October, which is assumed to be the result of sudden temperature changes. Nonetheless, no such seasonal variations were observed in mortality caused by cancer. Seasonal variations in mortality resulting from cardiovascular diseases also indicate gender differences, which is why sudden temperature changes in interim periods affect more women than men. As regards deseasonalized trend, mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases stagnates, while mortality caused by cancer and mortality caused by respiratory diseases records moderate to severe increase. This is a uniform trend in almost all municipalities in Belgrade, with average mortality rates being higher in central zones than in suburbs over the last 15 years, particularly mortality caused by cancer. A slight increase in the overall mortality can also be attributed to aging of the population, which cannot be verified due to lack of available accurate data on the average age structure of Belgrade population for the observed period. A better understanding of seasonal variations in mortality caused by chronic non-communicable diseases can contribute to improving the population health care and rising awareness of the population concerning greater health care in changeable weather conditions due to global warming and climate change. These findings can also enhance preventive action on environmental risk factors that are not limited exclusively to weather conditions, such as air pollution.

  19. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as

  20. The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

    2018-01-18

    Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C

  1. Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

  2. Seasonal/Interannual Variations of Carbon Sequestration and Carbon Emission in a Warm-Season Perennial Grassland

    OpenAIRE

    Deepa Dhital; Tomoharu Inoue; Hiroshi Koizumi

    2014-01-01

    Carbon sequestration and carbon emission are processes of ecosystem carbon cycling that can be affected while land area converted to grassland resulting in increased soil carbon storage and below-ground respiration. Discerning the importance of carbon cycle in grassland, we aimed to estimate carbon sequestration in photosynthesis and carbon emission in respiration from soil, root, and microbes, for four consecutive years (2007–2010) in a warm-season perennial grassland, Japan. Soil carbon emi...

  3. Annual warm-season grasses vary for forage yield, quality, and competitiveness with weeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warm-season annual grasses may be suitable as herbicide-free forage crops. A two-year field study was conducted to determine whether tillage system and nitrogen (N) fertilizer application method influenced crop and weed biomass, water use, water use efficiency (WUE), and forage quality of three war...

  4. Warm season chloride concentrations in stream habitats of freshwater mussel species at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todd, Aaron K.; Kaltenecker, M. Georgina

    2012-01-01

    Warm season (May–October) chloride concentrations were assessed in stream habitats of freshwater mussel species at risk in southern Ontario, Canada. Significant increases in concentrations were observed at 96% of 24 long-term (1975–2009) monitoring sites. Concentrations were described as a function of road density indicating an anthropogenic source of chloride. Linear regression showed that 36% of the variation of concentrations was explained by road salt use by the provincial transportation ministry. Results suggest that long-term road salt use and retention is contributing to a gradual increase in baseline chloride concentrations in at risk mussel habitats. Exposure of sensitive mussel larvae (glochidia) to increasing chloride concentrations may affect recruitment to at risk mussel populations. - Highlights: ► Warm season chloride concentrations were assessed in habitats of mussel species at risk. ► Concentrations increased significantly at 96% of 24 long-term monitoring sites. ► Concentrations increased with increases in road density and road salt use. ► Retention of road salt likely contributed to elevated warm season concentrations. ► Glochidia exposure to increasing concentrations may affect mussel reproduction. - Warm season chloride concentrations increased in southern Ontario streams with road salt use, such that reproduction of freshwater mussel species at risk may be affected.

  5. Seasonal body size reductions with warming covary with major body size gradients in arthropod species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horne, Curtis R.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, David

    2017-01-01

    experience different developmental conditions. Yet, unlike other size patterns, these common seasonal temperature–size gradients have never been collectively analysed. We undertake the largest analysis to date of seasonal temperature-size gradients in multivoltine arthropods, including 102 aquatic...... and terrestrial species from 71 global locations. Adult size declines in warmer seasons in 86% of the species examined. Aquatic species show approximately 2.5-fold greater reduction in size per °C of warming than terrestrial species, supporting the hypothesis that greater oxygen limitation in water than in air...

  6. Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Ragettli, Martina S; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

    2016-01-01

    In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated. Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions. 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more. Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.

  7. Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

    2016-12-02

    Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

  8. Seasonal timing in a warming world : Plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salis, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the

  9. Seasonal timing in a warming world : plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

    OpenAIRE

    Salis, L.

    2015-01-01

    In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the study of seasonal timing in the food chain of the oak-winter moth-great tit. As temperature increased over the last decades, both phenologies of the host plant, the oak, and the herbivorous insect, t...

  10. Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

  11. Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Liang Xu

    Full Text Available Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

  12. Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

  13. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  14. An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupo, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

  15. Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionan Marigómez

    Full Text Available In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16-24°C, winter: 12-20°C, summer: 20-28°C and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution.

  16. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  17. On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

  18. Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damyanov, Nikolay N; Mysak, Lawrence A; Damon Matthews, H

    2012-01-01

    Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada. (letter)

  19. Incorporating residual temperature and specific humidity in predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg

    2017-02-01

    Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.

  20. Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

    2012-03-01

    Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

  1. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND WARMING ON THE MORTALITY AND DISSOLUTION OF CORALLINE ALGAE(1).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Kline, David I; Dove, Sophie; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2012-02-01

    Coralline algae are among the most sensitive calcifying organisms to ocean acidification as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 ). Little is known, however, about the combined impacts of increased pCO2 , ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature on tissue mortality and skeletal dissolution of coralline algae. To address this issue, we conducted factorial manipulative experiments of elevated CO2 and temperature and examined the consequences on tissue survival and skeletal dissolution of the crustose coralline alga (CCA) Porolithon (=Hydrolithon) onkodes (Heydr.) Foslie (Corallinaceae, Rhodophyta) on the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. We observed that warming amplified the negative effects of high pCO2 on the health of the algae: rates of advanced partial mortality of CCA increased from warming conditions (from 26°C to 29°C). Furthermore, the effect of pCO2 on skeletal dissolution strongly depended on temperature. Dissolution of P. onkodes only occurred in the high-pCO2 treatment and was greater in the warm treatment. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with a significant increase in the abundance of endolithic algae. Our results demonstrate that P. onkodes is particularly sensitive to ocean acidification under warm conditions, suggesting that previous experiments focused on ocean acidification alone have underestimated the impact of future conditions on coralline algae. Given the central role that coralline algae play within coral reefs, these conclusions have serious ramifications for the integrity of coral-reef ecosystems. © 2011 Phycological Society of America.

  2. The influence of the bottom cold water on the seasonal variability of the Tsushima warm current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isobe, Atsuhiko

    1995-06-01

    Previous studies have concluded that the volume transport and surface current velocity of the Tsushima Warm Current are at a maximum between summer and autumn and at a minimum between winter and spring. Each study has obtained these results indirectly, using the sea level difference across the Tsushima-Korea Strait or dynamic calculation. Numerical experiments are performed to estimate the seasonal variability in the sea level difference caused by the Bottom Cold Water (BCW), which intrudes from the Sea of Japan along the Korean coast in the bottom layer. These experiments basically treat the baroclinic adjustment problem of the BCW in a rectangular cross section perpendicular to the axis (northeast-southwest direction) of the Tsushima-Korea Strait. It is a five-layer model for summer and a two-layer model for winter. The initial conditions and parameters in models are chosen so as to match the calculated velocity-density fields with the observed velocity-density fields [Isobe A., S. Tawara, A. Kaneko and M. Kawano (1994) Continental Shelf Research, 14, 23-35.]. Consequently, the experiments prove that the observed seasonal variability in the sea level difference across the Tsushima-Korea Strait largely contains the baroclinic motion caused by the BCW. It should be noted that the position of the BCW also plays an important role in producing a considerable seasonal variation of the sea level difference. It is critical to remove the baroclinic contribution from the observed sea level differences across the Tsushima-Korea Strait in order to estimate the seasonal variation in the volume transport of the Tsushima Warm Current.

  3. Prolonged warm ischemia time is associated with graft failure and mortality after kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tennankore, Karthik K; Kim, S Joseph; Alwayn, Ian P J; Kiberd, Bryce A

    2016-03-01

    Warm ischemia time is a potentially modifiable insult to transplanted kidneys, but little is known about its effect on long-term outcomes. Here we conducted a study of United States kidney transplant recipients (years 2000-2013) to determine the association between warm ischemia time (the time from organ removal from cold storage to reperfusion with warm blood) and death/graft failure. Times under 10 minutes were potentially attributed to coding error. Therefore, the 10-to-under-20-minute interval was chosen as the reference group. The primary outcome was mortality and graft failure (return to chronic dialysis or preemptive retransplantation) adjusted for recipient, donor, immunologic, and surgical factors. The study included 131,677 patients with 35,901 events. Relative to the reference patients, times of 10 to under 20, 20 to under 30, 30 to under 40, 40 to under 50, 50 to under 60, and 60 and more minutes were associated with hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.15), 1.13 (1.06-1.22), 1.17 (1.09-1.26), 1.20 (1.12-1.30), and 1.23 (1.15-1.33) for the composite event, respectively. Association between prolonged warm ischemia time and death/graft failure persisted after stratification by donor type (living vs. deceased donor) and delayed graft function status. Thus, warm ischemia time is associated with adverse long-term patient and graft survival after kidney transplantation. Identifying strategies to reduce warm ischemia time is an important consideration for future study. Copyright © 2015 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

    2015-12-01

    Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

  5. Seasonal mortality and sequential density dependence in a migratory bird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rakhimberdiev, Eldar; van den Hout, Piet J.; Brugge, Maarten; Spaans, Bernard; Piersma, Theunis

    2015-01-01

    Migratory bird populations may be limited during one or more seasons, and thus at one or more places, but there is a dearth of empirical examples of this possibility. We analyse seasonal survival in a migratory shellfish-eating shorebird (red knot Calidris canutus islandica) during a series of years

  6. Grassland bird productivity in warm season grass fields in southwest Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, Carolyn M.; Ribic, Christine; Sample, David W.; Dadisman, John D.; Guttery, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Surrogate grasslands established through federal set-aside programs, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), provide important habitat for grassland birds. Warm season grass CRP fields as a group have the potential for providing a continuum of habitat structure for breeding birds, depending on how the fields are managed and their floristic composition. We studied the nesting activity of four obligate grassland bird species, Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), and Henslow's Sparrow (A. henslowii), in relation to vegetative composition and fire management in warm season CRP fields in southwest Wisconsin during 2009–2011. Intraspecific variation in apparent nest density was related to the number of years since the field was burned. Apparent Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest in the breeding season immediately following spring burns, apparent Henslow's Sparrow nest density was highest 1 y post burn, and apparent Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark nest densities were higher in post fire years one to three. Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest on sites with more diverse vegetation, specifically prairie forbs, and on sites with shorter less dense vegetation. Bobolink, Eastern Meadowlark, and Henslow's Sparrow apparent nest densities were higher on sites with deeper litter; litter was the vegetative component that was most affected by spring burns. Overall nest success was 0.487 for Bobolink (22 d nesting period), 0.478 for Eastern Meadowlark (25 d nesting period), 0.507 for Grasshopper Sparrow (22 d nesting period), and 0.151 for Henslow's Sparrow (21 d nesting period). The major nest predators were grassland-associated species: thirteen-lined ground squirrel (Ictidomys tridecemlineatus), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), milk snake (Lampropeltis triangulum), American badger (Taxidea taxus), and western fox snake (Elaphe vulpina). Overall

  7. Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

    2013-01-01

    Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

  8. The risk mortality of the population of azerbaijan from circulatory diseases, depending on the season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Rzayeva

    2015-06-01

    Azerbaijan State Advanced Training Institute for doctors named after A. Aliyev, Baku   ABSTRACT The Objective.  To obtain evidence-based data about the role of seasons of the year in the formation of the population mortality risk from the circulatory system diseases  (CSD in Azerbaijan and its regions with specific climate. Materials of the study. A case of mortality was a unit of statistical observation. The fatalities from all reasons, including CSD have been distributed by the days of every month in the year. Daily average amount of fatalities by months and seasons ( from 20 December to 19 March – winter; from 20 March to 19 June- spring; from 20 June to 16 September; from 20 September to 19 December - autumn have been determined. Results.  In Azerbaijan the risk of general mortality and mortality from CSD is the highest in winter, it decreases in spring but nonuniformly (the general mortality rate is less than that from CSD. That is why the share of CSD increases among mortality reasons. Conclusions. Seasonal change of mortality risks from CSD is multivariant. Winter-spring increase of risk predominates in Azerbaijan. In some regions of Azerbaijan the mortality risk from CSD increases only once either in spring or in summer or winter. Key words: seasonal dynamics, risk of mortality, circulatory system diseases.

  9. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

    2017-11-01

    Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

  10. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Freund

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

  11. Positive feedback of greenhouse gas balances to warming is determined by non-growing season emissions in an alpine meadow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, S.; Wang, J.; Quan, Q.; Chen, W.; Wen, X.; Yu, G.

    2017-12-01

    Large uncertainties exist in the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in response to climate warming and human activity. So far, numerous previous studies have evaluated the CO2 budget, but little attention has paid to CH4 and N2O budgets and the concurrent balance of these three gases in combination, especially in the non-growing season. Here, we synthesized eddy covariance measurement with the automatic chamber measurements of CO2, CH4, and N2O exposed to three levels of temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5 °C, +2.5 °C) and two disturbance treatments (ummowing, mowing) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. We have found that warming caused increase in CH4 uptake and decrease in N2O emission offset little of the enhancement in CO2 emission, triggering a positive feedback to climate warming. Warming switches the ecosystem from a net sink (-17 ± 14 g CO2-eq m-2 yr-1) in the control to a net source of greenhouse gases of 94 ± 36 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +1.5 °C warming treatment, and 177 ± 6 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +2.5 °C warming treatment. The changes in the non-growing season balance, rather than those in the growing season, dominate the warming responses of annual greehouse gas balance. And this is not changed by mowing. The dominant role of responses of winter greenhouse gas balance in the positive feedback of ecosystem to climate warming highlights that greenhouse gas balance in cold season has to be considered when assessing climate-carbon cycle feedback.

  12. Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

  13. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  14. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  15. Seasonal Variation in Mortality, Medical Care Expenditure and Institutionalization in Older People

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rolden, Herbert Jan Albert; Rohling, Jos Hermanus Theodoor; van Bodegom, David

    2015-01-01

    . It is therefore important to investigate the impact of the seasons on MCE both mediated and unmediated by mortality. METHODS: Data on mortality, MCE and institutionalization from people aged 65 and older in a region in the Netherlands from July 2007 through 2010 were retrieved from a regional health care insurer...... in mortality is similar for both institutionalized and community-dwelling elderly. Policy-makers, epidemiologists and health economists are urged to acknowledge and include the impact of the seasons in future policy and research....

  16. Did medieval trade activity and a viral etiology control the spatial extent and seasonal distribution of Black Death mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossak, Brian H; Welford, Mark R

    2009-06-01

    Recent research into the world's greatest recorded epidemic, the Medieval Black Death (MBD), has cast doubt on Bubonic Plague as the etiologic agent. Prior research has recently culminated in outstanding advances in our understanding of the spatio-temporal pattern of MBD mortality, and a characterization of the incubation, latent, infectious, and symptomatic periods of the MBD. However, until now, several mysteries remained unexplained, including perhaps the biggest quandary of all: why did the MBD exhibit inverse seasonal peaks in mortality from diseases recorded in modern times, such as seasonal Influenza or the Indian Plague Epidemics of the early 1900 s? Although some have argued that climate changes likely explain the observed differences between modern clinical Bubonic Plague seasonality and MBD mortality accounts, we believe that another factor explains these dissimilarities. Here, we provide a synthetic hypothesis which builds upon previous theories developed in the last ten years or so. Our all-encompassing theory explains the causation, dissemination, and lethality of the MBD. We theorize that the MBD was a human-to-human transmitted virus, originating in East-Central Asia and not Africa (as some recent work has proposed), and that its areal extent during the first great epidemic wave of 1347-1350 was controlled hierarchically by proximity to trade routes. We also propose that the seasonality of medieval trade controlled the warm-weather mortality peaks witnessed during 1347-1350; during the time of greatest market activity, traders, fairgoers, and religious pilgrims served as unintentional vectors of a lethal virus with an incubation period of approximately 32 days, including a largely asymptomatic yet infectious period of roughly three weeks. We include a description of the rigorous research agenda that we have proposed in order to subject our theory to scientific scrutiny and a description of our plans to generate the first publicly available

  17. Seasonal patterns in soil N availability in the arctic tundra in response to accelerated snowmelt and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Steltzer, H.; Sullivan, P.; Melle, C.; Segal, A.; Weintraub, M. N.

    2010-12-01

    Arctic soils contain large stocks of carbon (C) and may act as a significant CO2 source in response to climate warming. However, nitrogen (N) availability limits both plant growth and decomposition in many Arctic sites, and may thus be a key constraint on climate-carbon feedbacks. While current models of tundra ecosystems and their responses to climate change assume that N limits plant growth and C limits decomposition, there is strong evidence to the contrary showing that N can also limit decomposition. For example, the production of both new microbial biomass and enzymes that degrade organic matter appear to be limited by N during the summer. N availability is strongly seasonal: we have previously observed relatively high availability early in the growing season followed by a pronounced crash in tussock tundra soils. To investigate the drivers of N availability throughout the season, we used a field manipulation of tussock tundra growing season length (~4 days acceleration of snowmelt) and air temperature (open top chambers) and a laboratory soil N addition in both early and late season. Nutrient availability throughout the field season was measured at high temporal resolution (25 measurements from soil thaw through early plant senescence). Results from a laboratory experiment in which N was added to early season and late season soils suggests that soil respiration is in fact N limited at both times of the season, though this limitation is temperature dependent with effects most pronounced at 10°C. High-resolution measurements of nutrients in the soil solution and extractable N throughout the season showed that although a nutrient crash in N can be observed mid-season, N availability can still fluctuate later in the season. Finally, effects of the extended growing season and increased air temperature have so far had few effects on soil nutrient N dynamics throughout the summer growing season, suggesting either an insensitivity of N availability to these

  18. Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Yu, Xichen; Hang, Yuhao

    2017-01-01

    Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH 4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N 2 O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH 4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH 4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH 4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N 2 O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

  20. Evaluation of Warm Season Turfgrass under Different Irrigation Regimes in Arid Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah Mohd Hassan ALSHEHHI

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Turfgrasses play a very important role in enhancing quality of life in modern urban living. Water quantity is the most important challenge worldwide in establishing and maintaining quality turf. The present study was aimed to test the performance of three warm season turfgrasses under four water levels for plantation in arid zones. Pits (48 measuring 1m length x 1m width x 0.6 m depth were planted with four replications of Common Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon, Tifway Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon x transvaalensis and Seashore Paspalum grass (Paspalum vaginatum in complete randomized design (CRD. Irrigation was done daily with 15 l/plot during the first 4 weeks (establishment period and four irrigation levels (5, 10, and 15, 20 l/lot were maintained in the following 8 weeks (treatment period. Physical parameters (canopy temperatures, ambient temperature, leaf area, shoot production and relative water content were measured once in two week as well as the visual quality (shoot color, shoot density and shoot uniformity was assessed, however, chlorophyll analysis was done in the end of the study. It was found that temperature has significant effect on performance of turfgrasses. Canopy temperature was higher than ambient temperature in the three turfgrasses but it has different level in each variety. Five liter of water per day per square meter gave acceptable turf quality when ambient temperature ranged from 20 to 33�C. Seashore paspalum performed best followed by Tifway Bermuda grass and common Bermuda grass respectively.

  1. Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

    2013-01-01

    Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

  2. Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-01-01

    We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

  3. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  4. Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrovski, Vladimir; Baccini, Michela; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Wolf, Tanja; Paunovic, Elizabet; Menne, Bettina

    2017-07-05

    Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

  5. Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Emily Pickering; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders

    2017-08-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes. Few studies have investigated CH4 fluxes in subarctic heath ecosystems, and climate change-induced shifts in CH4 flux and the overall carbon budget are therefore largely unknown. Hence, there is an urgent need for long-term in situ experiments allowing for the study of ecosystem processes over time scales relevant to environmental change. Here we present in situ CH4 and CO2 flux measurements from a wet heath ecosystem in northern Sweden subjected to 16 years of manipulations, including summer warming with open-top chambers, birch leaf litter addition, and the combination thereof. Throughout the snow-free season, the ecosystem was a net sink of CH4 and CO2 (CH4 -0.27 mg C m-2 d-1; net ecosystem exchange -1827 mg C m-2 d-1), with highest CH4 uptake rates (-0.70 mg C m-2 d-1) during fall. Warming enhanced net CO2 flux, while net CH4 flux was governed by soil moisture. Litter addition and the combination with warming significantly increased CH4 uptake rates, explained by a pronounced soil drying effect of up to 32% relative to ambient conditions. Both warming and litter addition also increased the seasonal average concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the soil. The site was a carbon sink with a net uptake of 60 g C m-2 over the snow-free season. However, warming reduced net carbon uptake by 77%, suggesting that this ecosystem type might shift from snow-free season sink to source with increasing summer temperatures.

  6. Distribution and seasonal change of the Tsugaru warm current water off Rokkasho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shima, Shigeki; Nakayama, Tomoharu; Iseda, Kenichi; Nishizawa, Keisuke; Gasa, Shinichi; Suto, Kazuhiko; Sakurai, Satoshi; Oguri, Kazumasa; Kouzuma, Kiyotake

    2000-01-01

    The first commercial spent fuel reprocessing plant in Japan is being installed in Rokkasho-mura, Aomori Prefecture. Decontaminated liquid effluents in its operation will be released into a sea. In accessing the environmental impact of radionuclides discharged into a sea, it is important that the patterns of water movements around the discharge outlet are clarified. This area off Rokkasho is an open coast, where the Tsugaru Warm Current Water (TWC), the cold Oyashio and the warm Kuroshio Extension meet. Therefore, it is considered that complicated water circulations will be formed around the region of the wastewater outlet. Current structures of the coastal water near the ocean outlet were investigated by use of mooring current meters/ADCPs, a towing-ADCP, and some CTD observations. In addition, extensive observations with CTD and a shipboard ADCP were made in detail around the off Rokkasho (Shimokita Peninsula) to evaluate the distribution and the seasonal change of the TWC. These observations were carried out five times in September 1997 to August 1999. Gyre mode and coastal mode of the TWC experimentally pointed out by Conlon are found by those investigations. In the gyre mode, the large eddy more than 100 km in diameter is found in the east part of the Tsugaru Strait, which has the vertical structure of 1,000 m in depth. From the current measurements by shipboard ADCP, the velocity of the TWC was more than three knots and the width of its fastest region about 30km at that mode. On the other hand, in the coastal mode, the TWC flows along the continental slope off Rokkasho (ca five miles off the coast) and is about 400m thick in depth. The TWC affects the layers below the sill depth of the Tsugaru Strait. In the gyre mode the TWC flows northward along the slope off Rokkasho, however, around the coastal zone standing near to the outlet, southward flow was observed predominantly. At the coastal mode, the northward flow was mostly observed around the coastal area

  7. Seasonal variation in short-term mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, L H; Nielsen, H; Pedersen, L

    2010-01-01

    Comorbidity has a major impact on short-term and long-term survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) and many CRC patients suffer from comorbidities. Mortality rates for comorbidities like cardio-respiratory diseases exhibit distinct seasonal variations with highest rates in the winter. Therefore, we...

  8. Season of prescribed burn in ponderosa pine forests in eastern Oregon: impact on pine mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind; Mark. Loewen

    2005-01-01

    A study of the effects of season of prescribed burn on tree mortality was established in mixed-age ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) at the south end of the Blue Mountains near Burns, Oregon. Each of six previously thinned stands was subdivided into three experimental units and one of three treatments was randomly assigned to each:...

  9. The effects of season and meteorology on human mortality in tropical climates: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Langner, Marcel; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2014-07-01

    Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are dominant. Atmospheric effects were subject to population-specific factors such as age and socio-economic status and differed between urban and rural areas. The consequences of climate change as well as environmental, epidemiological and social change (e.g., emerging non-communicable diseases, ageing of the population, urbanization) suggest a growing relevance of heat-related excess mortality in tropical regions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

    2015-01-01

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  11. Mass Mortality of Cassin's Auklets, Assessing the Impact of a Warming Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, J.

    2016-02-01

    In Fall/Winter 2014-15, more than 100,000 Cassin's Auklets, Ptychoramphus aleuticus, washed ashore on U.S. West Coast beaches. A small-bodied, zooplanktivorous bird, Cassin's nest in colonies scattered along the Northeast Pacific coastline, with a particular concentration in the Scott Islands, northwest of Vancouver Island, BC where 80% of the world's population ( 3.5M) breeds. Standardized, effort-controlled beach surveys conducted by >500 volunteers for three citizen science organizations (BeachCOMBERS, Beach Watch, COASST) at >225 sites from Cape Flattery, WA to Monterey Bay, CA were used to document the event and contrast it to regionally specific long-term average carcass-fall. Data are abundance of independently verified carcass identifications collected (bi)monthly at known locations and dates, providing an instantaneous index of "new" carcass encounter rate. Two pulses were evident: A small but significant anomaly (+2-3 carcasses/km) in November primarily in California and a much larger (+20-25 carcasses/km) more sustained anomaly in December-January along the Washington and northern Oregon coastline. Four non-exclusive hypotheses were examined: surplus production of young-of-the year (i.e. elevated post-breeding mortality), severity of fall/winter storms (i.e. elevated winterkill), shifts in food diversity (proxied as copepod regional diversity along the Newport Line), and habitat compression calculated as location and relative area of wintering habitat (assessed by GLS-tagged birds) with a monthly SST anomaly event can be explained by the extreme compression of cold water habitat in July-September 2014, trapping dispersing Scott Islands birds as the warm water anomaly expanded eastward, leaving open the question of whether this event was anomalous mortality and/or anomalously high beaching rates.

  12. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisaveta P. Petkova

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  13. Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2014-01-01

    Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

  14. European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

  15. Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates

  16. Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperatures equally important for Land Climate in the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-12-01

    Both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture (SM) are important drivers of climate variability over land. In this study we present a comprehensive comparison of SM versus SST impacts on land climate in the warm season. We perform ensemble experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) where we set SM or SSTs to median conditions, respectively, to remove their inter-annual variability, whereby the other component - SST or SM - is still interactively computed. In contrast to earlier experiments performed with prescribed SSTs, our experiments suggest that SM is overall as important as SSTs for land climate, not only in the midlatitudes but also in the tropics and subtropics. Mean temperature and precipitation are reduced by 0.1-0.5 K and 0-0.2 mm, respectively, whereas their variability at different time scales decreases by 10-40% (temperature) and 0-10% (precipitation) when either SM or SSTs are prescribed. Also drought occurrence is affected, with mean changes in the maximum number of cumulative dry days of 0-0.75 days. Both SM and SST-induced changes are strongest for hot temperatures (up to 0.7 K, and 50%), extreme precipitation (up to 0.4 mm, and 20%), and strong droughts (up to 2 days). Local climate changes in response to removed SM variability are controlled - to first order - by the land-atmosphere coupling and the natural SM variability. SST-related changes are partly controlled by the relation of local temperature or precipitation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Moreover removed SM or SST variabilities both induce remote effects by impacting the atmospheric circulation. Our results are similar for the present day and the end of the century. We investigate the inter-dependency between SM and SST and find a sufficient degree of independence for the purpose of this study. The robustness of our findings is shown by comparing the response of CESM to removed SM variability with four other global climate models. In summary, SM and SSTs

  17. The cost of feeding bred dairy heifers on native warm-season grasses and harvested feedstuffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, J K; Boyer, C N; Griffith, A P; Waller, J C; Bates, G E; Keyser, P D; Larson, J A; Holcomb, E

    2016-01-01

    Heifer rearing is one of the largest production expenses for dairy cattle operations, which is one reason milking operations outsource heifer rearing to custom developers. The cost of harvested feedstuffs is a major expense in heifer rearing. A possible way to lower feed costs is to graze dairy heifers, but little research exists on this topic in the mid-south United States. The objectives of this research were to determine the cost of feeding bred dairy heifers grazing native warm-season grasses (NWSG), with and without legumes, and compare the cost of grazing with the cost of rearing heifers using 3 traditional rations. The 3 rations were corn silage with soybean meal, corn silage with dry distillers grain, and a wet distillers grain-based ration. Bred Holstein heifers between 15- and 20-mo-old continuously grazed switchgrass (SG), SG with red clover (SG+RC), a big bluestem and Indiangrass mixture (BBIG), and BBIG with red clover (BBIG+RC) in Tennessee during the summer months. Total grazing days were calculated for each NWSG to determine the average cost/animal per grazing day. The average daily gain (ADG) was calculated for each NWSG to develop 3 harvested feed rations that would result in the same ADG over the same number of grazing day as each NWSG treatment. The average cost/animal per grazing day was lowest for SG ($0.48/animal/grazing d) and highest for BBIG+RC ($1.10/animal/grazing d). For both BBIG and SG, legumes increased the average cost/animal per grazing day because grazing days did not increase enough to account for the additional cost of the legumes. No difference was observed in ADG for heifers grazing BBIG (0.85 kg/d) and BBIG+RC (0.94 kg/d), and no difference was observed in ADG for heifers grazing SG (0.71 kg/d) and SG+RC (0.70 kg/d). However, the ADG for heifers grazing SG and SG+RC was lower than the ADG for heifers grazing either BBIG or BBIG+RC. The average cost/animal per grazing day was lower for all NWSG treatments than the average cost

  18. Competition among warm season C4-cereals influence water use efficiency and competition ratios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanullah

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Water use efficiency (WUE and competition ratio (CR response of three warm season C4-cereals (grasses viz. corn (Zea mays L., cv. Hybrid-5393 VT3, grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench, cv. Hybrid-84G62 PAT, and foxtail millets (Setaria italic, cv. German Strain R in pure and mixed stands under low and high water levels was investigated. The experiment was conducted in pot experiment at Dryland Agriculture Institute, West Texas A&M University, Canyon, Texas, USA, during spring 2010. The objective of this study was to know whether the differences in the competitive ability of different crop species influence WUE or not? The planned mean comparison indicated that the corn WUE was 20, 11, and 6% higher in the mixed stand than in pure stand at 30, 60, and 90 days after emergence (DAE, respectively. The corn plants in pure stand had 91, 72, and 81% higher WUE than the average WUE of sorghum and millets in pure stand at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. Grain sorghum in pure stand had 70, 32, and 36% higher WUE than that of millets in pure stand at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. The WUE of three crops in mixed stand was 10 and 8% higher than the two crops mixed stand at the two early stages; but the WUE was 24% less in the three crops mixed stand than the two crops mixed stand at 90 DAE. Corn-mixed stand in two crops (average of corn + sorghum and corn + millets had 78, 74, and 74% higher WUE than the mixed stand of sorghum and millets at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. Corn and millets mixed stand had 14, 10, and 26% higher WUE than the corn and sorghum mixed stand at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. The increase in water level decreased WUE at the two late growth stages in all three crop plants. At the early growth stage (30 DAE, WUE increased in all crops at the higher water level. On the basis of CR, corn was found the best competitor, while millets was declared the least competitor in the mixed stands (corn

  19. Economic and conservation implications of converting exotic forages to native warm-season grass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian P. Monroe

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Intensive agriculture can have negative environmental consequences such as nonpoint source pollution and the simplification of biotic communities, and land sharing posits that conservation can be enhanced by integrating agricultural productivity and biodiversity on the same land. In the Southeastern United States, native warm-season grasses (NWSG may be a land sharing alternative to exotic forages currently in production because of greater livestock gains with lower fertilizer inputs, and habitat for grassland birds. However, uncertainty regarding costs and risk poses an important barrier to incorporating NWSG in livestock operations. We evaluated the economic and conservation implications of NWSG conversion among small, operational-scale pastures (6.8–10.5 ha during 2011–2012 at the Prairie Research Unit in Monroe Co., Mississippi (USA. We used partial budgets to compare the marginal rate of return (MRRe from converting exotic grass pastures to either a NWSG monoculture of Indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans or a NWSG mix of Indiangrass, little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium, and big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii. We similarly compared changes in productivity of dickcissels (Spiza americana, a grassland bird specializing in tall structure. Average daily gain (ADG of steers and revenue were consistently higher for NWSG treatments than exotic grass pasture, but ADG declined between years. Indiangrass pastures yielded consistently positive MRRe, indicating producers would receive 16–24% return on investment. Marginal rate of return was lower for mixed NWSG (−12 to 3%, driven by slightly lower livestock ADG and higher establishment costs than for Indiangrass. Sensitivity analyses indicated that MRRe also was influenced by cattle selling price. Conversely, mixed NWSG increased dickcissel productivity by a greater degree than Indiangrass per amount invested in NWSG conversion, suggesting a tradeoff between livestock and dickcissel production

  20. Seasonal survival rates and causes of mortality of Little Owls in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorup, Kasper; Pedersen, Dorthe; Sunde, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Survival rate is an essential component of population dynamics; therefore, identification of variation in mortality rates and the factors that influence them might be of key importance in understanding why populations increase or decrease. In Denmark, the Little Owl Athene noctua, a species...... the causes of current survival rates, we estimated age- and season-specific survival rates and causes of mortality in Danish Little Owls on the basis of ringed birds 1920–2002, radio tagged adult and juveniles 2005–2008 and nest surveys 2006–2008. We estimate that 32 % of all eggs fledge and survive to 2...... the breeding season. In radio-tagged adults and fledged juveniles, accidents in buildings and other human infrastructures were responsible for two-thirds of all fatalities. Anthropogenic habitats currently comprise the nesting and roosting habitats for the last Danish Little Owls. The accidental deaths...

  1. Assessing the relationship between global warming and mortality: Lag effects of temperature fluctuations by age and mortality categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Weiwei, E-mail: weiwei.yu@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Mengersen, Kerrie [Discipline of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane (Australia); Hu Wenbiao [School of Population Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, University of Queensland, Brisbane (Australia); Guo Yuming [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia); Pan Xiaochuan [School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191 (China); Tong Shilu, E-mail: s.tong@qut.edu.au [School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, QLD 4050, Brisbane (Australia)

    2011-07-15

    Although interests in assessing the relationship between temperature and mortality have arisen due to climate change, relatively few data are available on lag structure of temperature-mortality relationship, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. This study identified the lag effects of mean temperature on mortality among age groups and death categories using polynomial distributed lag models in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city, 1996-2004. For a 1 deg. C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increase in mortality on the current day occurred among people over 85 years (7.2% (95% CI: 4.3%, 10.2%)). The effect estimates among cardiovascular deaths were higher than those among all-cause mortality. For a 1 deg. C decrease below the threshold, the percent increases in mortality at 21 lag days were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%) for people aged over 85 years and with cardiovascular diseases, respectively. These findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies to reduce and prevent temperature-related mortality. - Highlights: > A longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. > The very old people were most vulnerable to temperature stress. > The cardiovascular mortality was also sensitive to the temperature variation. - In Brisbane, the lag effects lasted longer for cold temperatures, and shorter for hot temperatures. Elderly people and cardiovascular mortality were vulnerable to temperature stress.

  2. Influenza epidemics, seasonality, and the effects of cold weather on cardiac mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background More people die in the winter from cardiac disease, and there are competing hypotheses to explain this. The authors conducted a study in 48 US cities to determine how much of the seasonal pattern in cardiac deaths could be explained by influenza epidemics, whether that allowed a more parsimonious control for season than traditional spline models, and whether such control changed the short term association with temperature. Methods The authors obtained counts of daily cardiac deaths and of emergency hospital admissions of the elderly for influenza during 1992–2000. Quasi-Poisson regression models were conducted estimating the association between daily cardiac mortality, and temperature. Results Controlling for influenza admissions provided a more parsimonious model with better Generalized Cross-Validation, lower residual serial correlation, and better captured Winter peaks. The temperature-response function was not greatly affected by adjusting for influenza. The pooled estimated increase in risk for a temperature decrease from 0 to −5°C was 1.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.1%). Influenza accounted for 2.3% of cardiac deaths over this period. Conclusions The results suggest that including epidemic data explained most of the irregular seasonal pattern (about 18% of the total seasonal variation), allowing more parsimonious models than when adjusting for seasonality only with smooth functions of time. The effect of cold temperature is not confounded by epidemics. PMID:23025494

  3. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  4. Latitudinal variation in seasonal activity and mortality in ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperry, Jinelle H; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel; Carfagno, Gerardo L F; Weatherhead, Patrick J

    2010-06-01

    The ecology of ectotherms should be particularly affected by latitude because so much of their biology is temperature dependent. Current latitudinal patterns should also be informative about how ectotherms will have to modify their behavior in response to climate change. We used data from a total of 175 adult black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) radio-tracked in Ontario, Illinois, and Texas, a latitudinal distance of >1500 km, to test predictions about how seasonal patterns of activity and mortality should vary with latitude. Despite pronounced differences in temperatures among study locations, and despite ratsnakes in Texas not hibernating and switching from diurnal to nocturnal activity in the summer, seasonal patterns of snake activity were remarkably similar during the months that snakes in all populations were active. Rather than being a function of temperature, activity may be driven by the timing of reproduction, which appears similar among populations. Contrary to the prediction that mortality should be highest in the most active population, overall mortality did not follow a clinal pattern. Winter mortality did increase with latitude, however, consistent with temperature limiting the northern distribution of ratsnakes. This result was opposite that found in the only previous study of latitudinal variation in winter mortality in reptiles, which may be a consequence of whether or not the animals exhibit true hibernation. Collectively, these results suggest that, at least in the northern part of their range, ratsnakes should be able to adjust easily to, and may benefit from, a warmer climate, although climate-based changes to the snakes' prey or habitat, for example, could alter that prediction.

  5. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  6. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr Kandeel

    Full Text Available Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt's influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system.Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped.From November 2007-November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17% SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s (all p<0.05. Among them, 53 (2% died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s, and influenza A (all p<0.05. An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July-June. Each season, the proportion of the season's influenza-positive cases peaked during November-May (19-41%.In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy.

  7. Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Krikken, F.

    2016-01-01

    Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-Albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-The-Art global

  8. Season, sex, age, and education as modifiers of the effects of outdoor air pollution on daily mortality in Shanghai, China: The Public Health and Air Pollution in Asia (PAPA) Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Haidong; London, Stephanie J; Chen, Guohai; Zhang, Yunhui; Song, Guixiang; Zhao, Naiqing; Jiang, Lili; Chen, Bingheng

    2008-09-01

    Various factors can modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution. Prior findings about modifiers are inconsistent, and most of these studies were conducted in developed countries. We conducted a time-series analysis to examine the modifying effect of season, sex, age, and education on the association between outdoor air pollutants [particulate matter air pollution for the warm season (April-September) and cool season (October-March) separately. For total mortality, we examined the association stratified by sex and age. Stratified analysis by educational attainment was conducted for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Outdoor air pollution was associated with mortality from all causes and from cardiorespiratory diseases in Shanghai. An increase of 10 mug/m(3) in a 2-day average concentration of PM(10), SO(2), NO(2), and O(3) corresponds to increases in all-cause mortality of 0.25% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.14-0.37), 0.95% (95% CI, 0.62-1.28), 0.97% (95% CI, 0.66-1.27), and 0.31% (95% CI, 0.04-0.58), respectively. The effects of air pollutants were more evident in the cool season than in the warm season, and females and the elderly were more vulnerable to outdoor air pollution. Effects of air pollution were generally greater in residents with low educational attainment (illiterate or primary school) compared with those with high educational attainment (middle school or above). Season, sex, age, and education may modify the health effects of outdoor air pollution in Shanghai. These findings provide new information about the effects of modifiers on the relationship between daily mortality and air pollution in developing countries and may have implications for local environmental and social policies.

  9. Suicide Mortality Among Retired National Football League Players Who Played 5 or More Seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, Everett J; Hein, Misty J; Gersic, Christine M

    2016-10-01

    There is current disagreement in the scientific literature about the relationship between playing football and suicide risk, particularly among professional players in the National Football League (NFL). While some research indicates players are at high risk of football-related concussions, which may lead to chronic traumatic encephalopathy and suicide, other research finds such a connection to be speculative and unsupported by methodologically sound research. To compare the suicide mortality of a cohort of NFL players to what would be expected in the general population of the United States. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. A cohort of 3439 NFL players with at least 5 credited playing seasons between 1959 and 1988 was assembled for statistical analysis. The vital status for this cohort was updated through 2013. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), the ratio of observed deaths to expected deaths, and 95% CIs were computed for the cohort; 95% CIs that excluded unity were considered statistically significant. For internal comparison purposes, standardized rate ratios were calculated to compare mortality results between players stratified into speed and nonspeed position types. Suicide among this cohort of professional football players was significantly less than would be expected in comparison with the United States population (SMR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24-0.82). There were no significant differences in suicide mortality between speed and nonspeed position players. There is no indication of elevated suicide risk in this cohort of professional football players with 5 or more credited seasons of play. Because of the unique nature of this cohort, these study results may not be applicable to professional football players who played fewer than 5 years or to college or high school players. © 2016 The Author(s).

  10. Variation and seasonal patterns of suicide mortality in Finland and Sweden since the 1750s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holopainen, Jari; Helama, Samuli; Björkenstam, Charlotte; Partonen, Timo

    2013-11-01

    Suicide mortality varies in both the short and long term. Our study examines suicide mortality in Finland and Sweden from the 1750s until today. The aim of our study is to detect any seasonal peaks in suicide rates and examine their temporal evolution to suggest a mechanism that may explain such peaks. We acquired the study material from the Finnish and Swedish cause of death statistics (257,341 deaths by suicide) and the relevant population gender structure data. We then separately calculated the annual male and female suicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants. We analysed the suicide peaks, calculating factors of proportionality for the available data by dividing the suicide rates in the peak months (May and October) by the annual suicide rates. Suicide rates in Finland and Sweden peak twice a year. Both men and women in both countries most often commit suicide in May. There is another peak in October, with the exception of Finnish men. These suicide peaks coincide with a temperature increase in May and the biggest annual drop in temperature in October. We also observed a monotonic long-term change in the Swedish statistics, but not in the Finnish data. Our hypothesis is that seasonal variation in suicide rates may be caused by abrupt temperature changes twice a year that trigger the activity in brown adipose tissue and deepen depression. While the overall suicide mortality rates varied considerably, the monthly proportions in May did not. This finding suggests a routine factor underlying the spring peak in suicide mortality.

  11. Seasonal Variation in Solar Ultra Violet Radiation and Early Mortality in Extremely Preterm Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas, Ariel A; Smith, Kelly A; Rodgers, Mackenzie D; Phillips, Vivien; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam

    2015-11-01

    Vitamin D production during pregnancy promotes fetal lung development, a major determinant of infant survival after preterm birth. Because vitamin D synthesis in humans is regulated by solar ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, we hypothesized that seasonal variation in solar UVB doses during fetal development would be associated with variation in neonatal mortality rates. This cohort study included infants born alive with gestational age (GA) between 23 and 28 weeks gestation admitted to a neonatal unit between 1996 and 2010. Three infant cohort groups were defined according to increasing intensities of solar UVB doses at 17 and 22 weeks gestation. The primary outcome was death during the first 28 days after birth. Outcome data of 2,319 infants were analyzed. Mean birth weight was 830 ± 230 g and median gestational age was 26 weeks. Mortality rates were significantly different across groups (p = 0.04). High-intensity solar UVB doses were associated with lower mortality when compared with normal intensity solar UVB doses (hazard ratio: 0.70; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.91; p = 0.01). High-intensity solar UVB doses during fetal development seem to be associated with risk reduction of early mortality in preterm infants. Prospective studies are needed to validate these preliminary findings. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  12. Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-08-01

    Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Protozoans bacterivory in a subtropical environment during a dry/cold and a rainy/warm season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina F. Hisatugo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In aquatic ecosystems, bacteria are controlled by several organisms in the food chain, such as protozoa, that use them as food source. This study aimed to quantify the ingestion and clearance rates of bacteria by ciliates and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF in a subtropical freshwater reservoir (Monjolinho reservoir -São Carlos -Brazil during one year period, in order to verify their importance as consumers and controllers of bacteria in two seasons, a dry/cold and a rainy/warm one. For this purpose, in situ bacterivory experiments were carried out bimonthly using fluorescently labeled bacteria with 5-(4,6 diclorotriazin-2yl aminofluorescein (DTAF. Although ciliates have shown the highest individual ingestion and clearance rates, bacterivory was dominated by HNF, who showed higher population ingestion rates (mean of 9,140 bacteria h-1mL-1 when compared to ciliates (mean of 492 bacteria h-1mL-1. The greater predation impact on bacterial communities was caused mainly by the small HNF (< 5 µm population, especially in the rainy season, probably due to the abundances of these organisms, the precipitation, trophic index state and water temperature that were higher in this period. Thus, the protozoan densities together with environmental variables were extremely relevant in determining the seasonal pattern of bacterivory in Monjolinho reservoir.

  14. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandeel, Amr; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

    2016-01-01

    Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt’s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were collected. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and typed as influenza A or B, and influenza A specimens subtyped. Results From November 2007–November 2014, 2,936/17,441 (17%) SARI cases were influenza-positive. Influenza-positive patients were more likely to be older, female, pregnant, and have chronic condition(s) (all p<0.05). Among them, 53 (2%) died, and death was associated with older age, five or more days from symptom onset to hospitalization, chronic condition(s), and influenza A (all p<0.05). An annual seasonal influenza pattern occurred from July–June. Each season, the proportion of the season’s influenza-positive cases peaked during November–May (19–41%). Conclusions In Egypt, influenza causes considerable morbidity and mortality and influenza SARI hospitalization patterns mirror those of the Northern Hemisphere. Additional assessment of influenza epidemiology in Egypt may better guide disease control activities and vaccine policy. PMID:27607330

  15. Seasonal variation and trends in stroke hospitalizations and mortality in a South American community hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz, Alejandro; Gerschcovich, Eliana Roldan; Díaz, Adriana A; Antía, Fabiana; Gonorazky, Sergio

    2013-10-01

    Numerous studies have reported the presence of temporal variations in biological processes. Seasonal variation (SV) in stroke has been widely studied, but little data have been published on this phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere, and there have been no studies reported from Argentina. The goals of the present study were to describe the SV of admissions and deaths for stroke and examine trends in stroke morbidity and mortality over a 3-year period in a community hospital in Argentina. Hospital discharge reports from the electronic database of vital statistics between 1999 and 2001 were examined retrospectively. Patients who had a main discharge diagnosis of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) or cerebrovascular accident (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes 431, 432, 434, and 436) were selected. The study sample included 1382 hospitalizations by stroke (3.5% of all admissions). In-hospital mortality demonstrated a winter peak (25.5% vs 17% in summer; P = .001). The crude seasonal stroke attack rate (ischemic and hemorrhagic) was highest in winter (164 per 100,000 population; 95% CI, 159-169 per 100,000) and lowest in summer (124 per 100,000; 95% CI, 120-127 per 100,000; P = .008). Stroke admissions followed a seasonal pattern, with a winter-spring predominance (P = .008). Our data indicate a clear SV in stroke deaths and admissions in this region of Argentina. The existence of SV in stroke raises a different hypothesis about the rationale of HF admissions and provides information for the organization of care and resource allocation. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Global warming and mass mortalities of benthic invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Rivetti

    Full Text Available Satellite data show a steady increase, in the last decades, of the surface temperature (upper few millimetres of the water surface of the Mediterranean Sea. Reports of mass mortalities of benthic marine invertebrates increased in the same period. Some local studies interpreted the two phenomena in a cause-effect fashion. However, a basin-wide picture of temperature changes combined with a systematic assessment on invertebrate mass mortalities was still lacking. Both the thermal structure of the water column in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1945-2011 and all documented invertebrate mass mortality events in the basin are analysed to ascertain if: 1- documented mass mortalities occurred under conditions of positive temperature trends at basin scale, and 2- atypical thermal conditions were registered at the smaller spatial and temporal scale of mass mortality events. The thermal structure of the shallow water column over the last 67 years was reconstructed using data from three public sources: MEDAR-MEDATLAS, World Ocean Database, MFS-VOS programme. A review of the mass mortality events of benthic invertebrates at Mediterranean scale was also carried out. The analysis of in situ temperature profiles shows that the Mediterranean Sea changed in a non-homogeneous fashion. The frequency of mass mortalities is increasing. The areas subjected to these events correspond to positive thermal anomalies. Statistically significant temperature trends in the upper layers of the Mediterranean Sea show an increase of up to 0.07°C/yr for a large fraction of the basin. Mass mortalities are consistent with both the temperature increase at basin scale and the thermal changes at local scale, up to 5.2°C. Our research supports the existence of a causal link between positive thermal anomalies and observed invertebrate mass mortalities in the Mediterranean Sea, invoking focused mitigation initiatives in sensitive areas.

  17. Global Warming and Mass Mortalities of Benthic Invertebrates in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivetti, Irene; Fraschetti, Simonetta; Lionello, Piero; Zambianchi, Enrico; Boero, Ferdinando

    2014-01-01

    Satellite data show a steady increase, in the last decades, of the surface temperature (upper few millimetres of the water surface) of the Mediterranean Sea. Reports of mass mortalities of benthic marine invertebrates increased in the same period. Some local studies interpreted the two phenomena in a cause-effect fashion. However, a basin-wide picture of temperature changes combined with a systematic assessment on invertebrate mass mortalities was still lacking. Both the thermal structure of the water column in the Mediterranean Sea over the period 1945–2011 and all documented invertebrate mass mortality events in the basin are analysed to ascertain if: 1- documented mass mortalities occurred under conditions of positive temperature trends at basin scale, and 2- atypical thermal conditions were registered at the smaller spatial and temporal scale of mass mortality events. The thermal structure of the shallow water column over the last 67 years was reconstructed using data from three public sources: MEDAR-MEDATLAS, World Ocean Database, MFS-VOS programme. A review of the mass mortality events of benthic invertebrates at Mediterranean scale was also carried out. The analysis of in situ temperature profiles shows that the Mediterranean Sea changed in a non-homogeneous fashion. The frequency of mass mortalities is increasing. The areas subjected to these events correspond to positive thermal anomalies. Statistically significant temperature trends in the upper layers of the Mediterranean Sea show an increase of up to 0.07°C/yr for a large fraction of the basin. Mass mortalities are consistent with both the temperature increase at basin scale and the thermal changes at local scale, up to 5.2°C. Our research supports the existence of a causal link between positive thermal anomalies and observed invertebrate mass mortalities in the Mediterranean Sea, invoking focused mitigation initiatives in sensitive areas. PMID:25535973

  18. SEASONAL INCIDENCE AND AGE-RELATED MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY OF VARICELLA IN KERALA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junais Koleri

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND As the incidence of varicella in children is decreasing, the infection rate in the adults is on the rise. This study attempts to identify the all-cause-mortality and morbidity rate of varicella in adults and also the seasonal pattern of varicella infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS Varicella is diagnosed clinically. The data is recovered from case records of all the patients admitted at Government Medical College, Kozhikode, continuously over 2007 to 2012. RESULTS 640 patients were admitted with most of the cases in the age group of 20 to 40. 40% of the population belonged to above fifty years. The mean duration of hospitalisation was 21.5 days in elderly against 5 days in young patients. The mortality rate was also high in elderly (10.8% vs. 4% The varicella epidemics peak towards January to April. CONCLUSION The duration of hospital admission and the all-cause-mortality is much high in elderly population with varicella. Hence, there should be attempts to vaccinate the susceptible elderly population. The disease peaks towards January to April; hence, resources can be planned accordingly for proper utilisation.

  19. Intake, digestibility, and nitrogen retention by sheep supplemented with warm-season legume haylages or soybean meal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, J L; Adesogan, A T; Carter, J N; Blount, A R; Myer, R O; Phatak, S C

    2009-09-01

    The high cost of commercial supplements necessitates evaluation of alternatives for ruminant livestock fed poor quality warm-season grasses. This study determined how supplementing bahiagrass haylage (Paspalum notatum Flügge cv. Tifton 9) with soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] meal or warm-season legume haylages affected the performance of lambs. Forty-two Dorper x Katadhin lambs (27.5 +/- 5 kg) were fed for ad libitum intake of bahiagrass haylage (67.8% NDF, 9.6% CP) alone (control) or supplemented with soybean meal (18.8% NDF, 51.4% CP) or haylages of annual peanut [Arachis hypogaea (L.) cv. Florida MDR98; 39.6% NDF, 18.7% CP], cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp. cv. Iron clay; 44.1% NDF, 16.0% CP], perennial peanut (Arachis glabrata Benth. cv. Florigraze; 40.0% NDF, 15.8% CP), or pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp. cv. GA-2; 65.0% NDF, 13.7% CP]. Haylages were harvested at the optimal maturity for maximizing yield and nutritive value, wilted to 45% DM, baled, wrapped in polyethylene plastic, and ensiled for 180 d. Legumes were fed at 50% of the dietary DM, and soybean meal was fed at 8% of the dietary DM to match the average CP concentration (12.8%) of legume haylage-supplemented diets. Lambs were fed each diet for a 14-d adaptation period and a 7-d data collection period. Each diet was fed to 7 lambs in period 1 and 4 lambs in period 2. Pigeonpea haylage supplementation decreased (P haylages increased (P haylage, all supplements increased (P haylage supplementation, but unaffected (P = 0.05) by other supplements. Efficiency of microbial protein synthesis was unaffected (P = 0.05) by diet. Ruminal ammonia concentration was increased (P = 0.01) by all supplements, but only soybean meal and annual peanut haylage increased (P haylages are promising protein supplements for growing lambs.

  20. Dynamics of Necrophagous Insect and Tissue Bacteria for Postmortem Interval Estimation During the Warm Season in Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iancu, Lavinia; Sahlean, Tiberiu; Purcarea, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    The estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) is affected by several factors including the cause of death, the place where the body lay after death, and the weather conditions during decomposition. Given the climatic differences among biogeographic locations, the understanding of necrophagous insect species biology and ecology is required when estimating PMI. The current experimental model was developed in Romania during the warm season in an outdoor location. The aim of the study was to identify the necrophagous insect species diversity and dynamics, and to detect the bacterial species present during decomposition in order to determine if their presence or incidence timing could be useful to estimate PMI. The decomposition process of domestic swine carcasses was monitored throughout a 14-wk period (10 July-10 October 2013), along with a daily record of meteorological parameters. The chronological succession of necrophagous entomofauna comprised nine Diptera species, with the dominant presence of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann 1819) (Calliphoridae), while only two Coleoptera species were identified, Dermestes undulatus (L. 1758) and Creophilus maxillosus Brahm 1970. The bacterial diversity and dynamics from the mouth and rectum tissues, and third-instar dipteran larvae were identified using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis and sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA gene fragments. Throughout the decomposition process, two main bacterial chronological groups were differentiated, represented by Firmicutes and Gammaproteobacteria. Twenty-six taxa from the rectal cavity and 22 from the mouth cavity were identified, with the dominant phylum in both these cavities corresponding to Firmicutes. The present data strengthen the postmortem entomological and microbial information for the warm season in this temperate-continental area, as well as the role of microbes in carcass decomposition. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of

  1. Short dry spells in the wet season increase mortality of tropical pioneer seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, Bettina M J; Dalling, James W; Pearson, Timothy R H; Wolf, Robert L; Gálvez, David A; Koehler, Tobias; Tyree, Melvin T; Kursar, Thomas A

    2006-06-01

    Variation in plant species performance in response to water availability offers a potential axis for temporal and spatial habitat partitioning and may therefore affect community composition in tropical forests. We hypothesized that short dry spells during the wet season are a significant source of mortality for the newly emerging seedlings of pioneer species that recruit in treefall gaps in tropical forests. An analysis of a 49-year rainfall record for three forests across a rainfall gradient in central Panama confirmed that dry spells of > or = 10 days during the wet season occur on average once a year in a deciduous forest, and once every other year in a semi-deciduous moist and an evergreen wet forest. The effect of wet season dry spells on the recruitment of pioneers was investigated by comparing seedling survival in rain-protected dry plots and irrigated control plots in four large artificially created treefall gaps in a semi-deciduous tropical forest. In rain-protected plots surface soil layers dried rapidly, leading to a strong gradient in water potential within the upper 10 cm of soil. Seedling survival for six pioneer species was significantly lower in rain-protected than in irrigated control plots after only 4 days. The strength of the irrigation effect differed among species, and first became apparent 3-10 days after treatments started. Root allocation patterns were significantly, or marginally significantly, different between species and between two groups of larger and smaller seeded species. However, they were not correlated with seedling drought sensitivity, suggesting allocation is not a key trait for drought sensitivity in pioneer seedlings. Our data provide strong evidence that short dry spells in the wet season differentially affect seedling survivorship of pioneer species, and may therefore have important implications to seedling demography and community dynamics.

  2. Seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality: are there high-risk groups? 25-year follow-up of civil servants from the first Whitehall study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.T.M. van Rossum (Caroline); M.J. Shipley; H. Hemingway; D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); M.G. Marmot

    2001-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVES: To determine the seasonal effect on all-cause and cause-specific mortality and to identify high-risk groups. METHODS: A 25-year follow-up of 19,019 male civil servants aged 40-69 years. RESULTS: All-cause mortality was seasonal (ratio of highest mortality

  3. Harvesting Effects on Species Composition and Distribution of Cover Attributes in Mixed Native Warm-Season Grass Stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalis W. Temu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Managing grasslands for forage and ground-nesting bird habitat requires appropriate defoliation strategies. Subsequent early-summer species composition in mixed stands of native warm-season grasses (Indiangrass (IG, Sorghastrum nutans, big bluestem (BB, Andropogon gerardii and little bluestem (LB, Schizachyrium scoparium responding to harvest intervals (treatments, 30, 40, 60, 90 or 120 d and durations (years in production was assessed. Over three years, phased May harvestings were initiated on sets of randomized plots, ≥90 cm apart, in five replications (blocks to produce one-, two- and three-year-old stands. Two weeks after harvest, the frequencies of occurrence of plant species, litter and bare ground, diagonally across each plot (line intercept, were compared. Harvest intervals did not influence proportions of dominant plant species, occurrence of major plant types or litter, but increased that of bare ground patches. Harvest duration increased the occurrence of herbaceous forbs and bare ground patches, decreased that of tall-growing forbs and litter, but without affecting that of perennial grasses, following a year with more September rainfall. Data suggest that one- or two-year full-season forage harvesting may not compromise subsequent breeding habitat for bobwhites and other ground-nesting birds in similar stands. It may take longer than a year’s rest for similar stands to recover from such changes in species composition.

  4. Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative

  5. Mortality Attributable to Seasonal Influenza A and B Infections in Thailand, 2005–2009: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Ben S.; Kotirum, Surachai; Kulpeng, Wantanee; Praditsitthikorn, Naiyana; Chittaganpitch, Malinee; Limmathurotsakul, Direk; Day, Nicholas P. J.; Coker, Richard; Teerawattananon, Yot; Meeyai, Aronrag

    2015-01-01

    Influenza epidemiology differs substantially in tropical and temperate zones, but estimates of seasonal influenza mortality in developing countries in the tropics are lacking. We aimed to quantify mortality due to seasonal influenza in Thailand, a tropical middle-income country. Time series of polymerase chain reaction–confirmed influenza infections between 2005 and 2009 were constructed from a sentinel surveillance network. These were combined with influenza-like illness data to derive measures of influenza activity and relationships to mortality by using a Bayesian regression framework. We estimated 6.1 (95% credible interval: 0.5, 12.4) annual deaths per 100,000 population attributable to influenza A and B, predominantly in those aged ≥60 years, with the largest contribution from influenza A(H1N1) in 3 out of 4 years. For A(H3N2), the relationship between influenza activity and mortality varied over time. Influenza was associated with increases in deaths classified as resulting from respiratory disease (posterior probability of positive association, 99.8%), cancer (98.6%), renal disease (98.0%), and liver disease (99.2%). No association with circulatory disease mortality was found. Seasonal influenza infections are associated with substantial mortality in Thailand, but evidence for the strong relationship between influenza activity and circulatory disease mortality reported in temperate countries is lacking. PMID:25899091

  6. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  7. Mass coral mortality under local amplification of 2 °C ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decarlo, Thomas M.; Cohen, Anne L.; Wong, George T. F.; Davis, Kristen A.; Lohmann, Pat; Soong, Keryea

    2017-03-01

    A 2 °C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2 °C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, normally indistinguishable from open-ocean SST, exceeded 6 °C above normal summertime levels. Mass coral bleaching quickly ensued, killing 40% of the resident coral community in an event unprecedented in at least the past 40 years. Our findings highlight the risks of 2 °C ocean warming to coral reef ecosystems when global and local processes align to drive intense heating, with devastating consequences.

  8. Seasonal change in pupation behaviour and pupal mortality in a swallowtail butterfly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefanescu, C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Phenotypic plasticity in pupal colour has evolved to render cryptic pupae. Apart from characteristics of the pupation site, the photoperiod experienced by larvae is important in determining pupal colour, long and short photophases eliciting the formation of green and brown pupae, respectively. This seasonal polyphenismis often correlated with developmental pathway, green pupae developing directly and brown pupae entering into diapause. From 1996 to 2000, immature stages of Iphiclides podalirius were monitored on natural hostplants in NE Spain. Larvae were followed to the pupation site and pupal colour, characteristics of the pupation site and the fate of pupae were recorded. Before August, pupae were non-diapausing green while in early August they were dimorphic, after which, they were brown and overwintered. As theory predicts, differences in pupation sites in successive generations were found in relation to pupal colour. Green pupae occurred on the hostplants and brown pupae were found among the leaf litter. Mortality ranged from 14.3 to 100%. Bird predation was the major mortality factor for green pupae and was also important for brown pupae. Results suggest that preference for pupation sites in the litter in diapausing broods evolved to avoid strong bird predation on the hostplants. Preference for sites above ground level in summer generations may have evolved in response to both non-visual (small mammals and visual (avian predators.

  9. Seasonal analysis of the short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in Northeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Satbyul Estella; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro; Kan, Haidong; Lim, Youn-Hee; Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Clara Tammy; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Ho

    2017-01-15

    The constituents and concentrations of pollutants, individual exposures, and biologic responses to air pollution may vary by season and meteorological conditions. However, evidence regarding seasonality of the acute effects of air pollution on mortality is limited and inconsistent. Herein, we examined seasonal patterns in the short-term associations of particulate matter (PM) smaller than 10μm (PM 10 ) with daily mortality in 29 cities of three northeast Asian countries. Stratified time-series models were used to determine whether season altered the effect of PM 10 on mortality. This effect was first quantified within each season and at each location using a time-series model, after which city-specific estimates were pooled using a hierarchical Bayesian model. In all data sets, 3,675,348 non-accidental deaths were registered from 1993 to 2009. In Japan, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03%, 0.8%) in spring and 0.42% (0.02%, 0.82%) in fall. In South Korea, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was significantly associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.51% (0.01%, 1.01%) in summer and 0.45% (0.03%, 0.87%) in fall, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.96% (0.29%, 1.63%) in fall, and in respiratory disease mortality of 1.57% (0.40%, 2.75%) in fall. In China, a 10μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 was associated with increases in non-accidental mortality of 0.33% (0.01%, 0.66%) in summer and 0.41% (0.09%, 0.73%) in winter, in cardiovascular disease mortality of 0.41% (0.08%, 0.74%) in spring and 0.33% (0.02%, 0.64%) in winter, and in respiratory diseases mortality of 0.78% (0.27%, 1.30%) in winter. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary seasonally and geographically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

    2017-12-01

    One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

  11. Characterization of water quality and suspended sediment during cold-season flows, warm-season flows, and stormflows in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, 2007–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lisa D.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

    2017-09-01

    From 2007 through 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, conducted a study in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, to characterize surface-water quality and suspended-sediment conditions for three different streamflow regimes with an emphasis on characterizing water quality during storm runoff. Data collected during this study were used to evaluate the effects of stormflows and wastewater-treatment effluent discharge on Fountain and Monument Creeks in the Colorado Springs, Colorado, area. Water-quality samples were collected at 2 sites on Upper Fountain Creek, 2 sites on Monument Creek, 3 sites on Lower Fountain Creek, and 13 tributary sites during 3 flow regimes: cold-season flow (November–April), warm-season flow (May–October), and stormflow from 2007 through 2015. During 2015, additional samples were collected and analyzed for Escherichia coli (E. coli) during dry weather conditions at 41 sites, located in E. coli impaired stream reaches, to help identify source areas and scope of the impairment.Concentrations of E. coli, total arsenic, and dissolved copper, selenium, and zinc in surface-water samples were compared to Colorado in-stream standards. Stormflow concentrations of E. coli frequently exceeded the recreational use standard of 126 colonies per 100 milliliters at main-stem and tributary sites by more than an order of magnitude. Even though median E. coli concentrations in warm-season flow samples were lower than median concentrations in storm-flow samples, the water quality standard for E. coli was still exceeded at most main-stem sites and many tributary sites during warm-season flows. Six samples (three warm-season flow and three stormflow samples) collected from Upper Fountain Creek, upstream from the confluence of Monument Creek, and two stormflow samples collected from Lower Fountain Creek, downstream from the confluence with Monument Creek, exceeded the acute water

  12. The effects of dust–haze on mortality are modified by seasons and individual characteristics in Guangzhou, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Tao [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Zhang, Yong Hui [Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Xu, Yan Jun [Institute of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Lin, Hua Liang [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Xu, Xiao Jun [Institute of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Luo, Yuan; Xiao, JianPeng; Zeng, Wei Lin [Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 160, Qunxian Road, Panyu District, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Environment and Health, Guangdong Provincial Key Medical Discipline of Twelfth Five-Year Plan, Guangzhou 511430 (China); Zhang, Wan Fang [Liwan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510176 (China); Chu, Cordia; Keogh, Kandice; Rutherford, Shannon [Griffith University, Brisbane 4111 (Australia); Qian, Zhengmin [Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO 63104 (United States); Du, Yao Dong [Climate Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510080 (China); others, and

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust–haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006–2011. A dust–haze day was defined as daily visibility <10 km with relative humidity <90%. This definition was further divided into light (8–10 km), medium (5–8 km) and heavy dust–haze (<5 km). A distributed lag linear model (DLM) was employed. Light, medium and heavy dust–haze days were associated with increased mortality of 3.4%, 6.8% and 10.4% respectively, at a lag of 0–6 days. This effect was more pronounced during the cold season, for cardiovascular mortality (CVD), respiratory mortality (RESP), in males and people ≥60years. These effects became insignificant after adjustment for PM{sub 10}. We concluded that dust–haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors. - Highlights: • We assessed the health impact of dust–haze in a megacity of southern China. • A dust–haze was defined according to visibility and relative humidity. • Dust–haze increased mortality risk, which may be dominated by particulate mass. • The dust–haze effects were modified by season and individual-specific factors. - This study extends our understanding of the health impact of dust–haze in southern China, and provides local evidence for health to advocate for improved air emissions control and strategies to reduce population exposure.

  13. A comparative simple method for human bioclimatic conditions applied to seasonally hot/warm cities of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda Martinez, A. [Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico); Garcia Cueto, O.R. [Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, B.C. (Mexico)

    2002-01-01

    The climate of a region is an environmental resource with important implications for things such as thermal comfort, health and productivity of the population. In this work, the bioclimatic comfort was evaluated for seven seasonally warm/hot cities of Mexico by means of the following current indexes: Discomfort Index, Enthalpy Index and Heat Strain Index. Also, the periods during which it is necessary to use air conditioning in the studied cities were calculated from estimated global radiation and hourly data of temperature and relative humidity which made it possible to establish them with high precision. Finally, the useful of the Heat Strain Index is shown. It is a simple index needing available meteorological data to compare bioclimatic conditions of similar sites. [Spanish] El clima regional tiene implicaciones en el confort, la salud y la productividad de la poblacion. En este articulo se presentan las evaluaciones bioclimaticas comparativas de siete ciudades calidas de Mexico. Se aplicaron los indices bioclimaticos de disconfort, entalpia y esfuerzo frente al calor. Se calcularon los periodos para los cuales es necesario el uso de aire acondicionado, a partir de estimaciones de radiacion solar global y de temperatura y humedad horarias medias mensuales. Finalmente se muestra la utilidad y calidad del Indice de esfuerzo frente al calor, el cual requiere solo de datos climatologicos comunes para poder comparar condiciones bioclimaticas de sitios similares.

  14. Seeding method influences warm-season grass abundance and distribution but not local diversity in grassland restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurkonis, Kathryn A.; Wilsey, Brian J.; Moloney, Kirk A.; Drobney, Pauline; Larson, Diane L.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological theory predicts that the arrangement of seedlings in newly restored communities may influence future species diversity and composition. We test the prediction that smaller distances between neighboring seeds in drill seeded grassland plantings would result in lower species diversity, greater weed abundance, and larger conspecific patch sizes than otherwise similar broadcast seeded plantings. A diverse grassland seed mix was either drill seeded, which places seeds in equally spaced rows, or broadcast seeded, which spreads seeds across the ground surface, into 24 plots in each of three sites in 2005. In summer 2007, we measured species abundance in a 1 m2 quadrat in each plot and mapped common species within the quadrat by recording the most abundant species in each of 64 cells. Quadrat-scale diversity and weed abundance were similar between drilled and broadcast plots, suggesting that processes that limited establishment and controlled invasion were not affected by such fine-scale seed distribution. However, native warm-season (C4) grasses were more abundant and occurred in less compact patches in drilled plots. This difference in C4 grass abundance and distribution may result from increased germination or vegetative propagation of C4 grasses in drilled plots. Our findings suggest that local plant density may control fine-scale heterogeneity and species composition in restored grasslands, processes that need to be further investigated to determine whether seed distributions can be manipulated to increase diversity in restored grasslands.

  15. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  16. Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhargava, Anurag; Kaushik, Reshma; Kaushik, Rajeev Mohan; Sharma, Anita; Ahmad, Sohaib; Dhar, Minakshi; Mittal, Garima; Khanduri, Sushant; Pant, Priyannk; Kakkar, Rajesh

    2016-12-01

    Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5%) caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%). ARDS [odds ratio (OR)=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21) were the major predictors of death. The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

  17. Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anurag Bhargava

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Methods: Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. Results: A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP, which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5% caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%. ARDS [odds ratio (OR=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI: 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21 were the major predictors of death. Interpretation & conclusions: The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

  18. The effects of dust–haze on mortality are modified by seasons and individual characteristics in Guangzhou, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong Hui; Xu, Yan Jun; Lin, Hua Liang; Xu, Xiao Jun; Luo, Yuan; Xiao, JianPeng; Zeng, Wei Lin; Zhang, Wan Fang; Chu, Cordia; Keogh, Kandice; Rutherford, Shannon; Qian, Zhengmin; Du, Yao Dong

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the effects of dust–haze on mortality and to estimate the seasonal and individual-specific modification effects in Guangzhou, China. Mortality, air pollution and meteorological data were collected for 2006–2011. A dust–haze day was defined as daily visibility 10 . We concluded that dust–haze significantly increased mortality risk in Guangzhou, China, and this effect appears to be dominated by particulate mass and modified by season and individual-specific factors. - Highlights: • We assessed the health impact of dust–haze in a megacity of southern China. • A dust–haze was defined according to visibility and relative humidity. • Dust–haze increased mortality risk, which may be dominated by particulate mass. • The dust–haze effects were modified by season and individual-specific factors. - This study extends our understanding of the health impact of dust–haze in southern China, and provides local evidence for health to advocate for improved air emissions control and strategies to reduce population exposure

  19. Nonintrusive field experiments show different plant responses to warming and drought among sites, seasons, and species in a north-south European gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penuelas, J.; Gordon, C.; Llorens, L.

    2004-01-01

    -limited. In the water-stressed southern site, there was no increase in total aboveground plant biomass growth as expected since warming increases water loss, and temperatures in those ecosystems are already close to the optimum for photosynthesis. The southern site presented instead the most negative response...... a 15% increase in total aboveground plant biomass growth in the UK site. Both direct and indirect effects of warming, such as longer growth season and increased nutrient availability, are likely to be particularly important in this and the other northern sites which tend to be temperature...... to the drought treatment consisting of a soil moisture reduction at the peak of the growing season ranging from 33% in the Spanish site to 82% in The Netherlands site. In the Spanish site there was a 14% decrease in total aboveground plant biomass growth relative to control. Flowering was decreased by drought...

  20. Forage yield and nitrogen nutrition dynamics of warm-season native forage genotypes under two shading levels and in full sunlight

    OpenAIRE

    Barro,Raquel Santiago; Varella,Alexandre Costa; Lemaire,Gilles; Medeiros,Renato Borges de; Saibro,João Carlos de; Nabinger,Carlos; Bangel,Felipe Villamil; Carassai,Igor Justin

    2012-01-01

    The successful achievement of a highly productive understorey pasture in silvopastoral systems depends on the use of well-adapted forage genotypes, showing good agronomic performance and persistence under shading and grazing. In this study, the herbage dry matter yield (DMY) and nitrogen nutrition dynamics were determined in three native warm-season grasses (Paspalum regnellii, Paspalum dilatatum and Paspalum notatum) and a forage legume (Arachis pintoi) under two shading levels compared with...

  1. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  2. Spatial and temporal characteristics of warm season convection over Pearl River Delta region, China, based on 3 years of operational radar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xingchao; Zhao, Kun; Xue, Ming

    2014-11-01

    This study examines the temporal and spatial characteristics and distributions of convection over the Pearl River Delta region of Guangzhou, China, during the May-September warm season, using, for the first time for such a purpose, 3 years of operational Doppler radar data in the region. Results show that convective features occur most frequently along the southern coast and the windward slope of the eastern mountainous area of Pearl River Delta, with the highest frequency occurring in June and the lowest in September among the 5 months. The spatial frequency distribution pattern also roughly matches the accumulated precipitation pattern. The occurrence of convection in this region also exhibits strong diurnal cycles. During May and June, the diurnal distribution is bimodal, with the maximum frequency occurring in the early afternoon and a secondary peak occurring between midnight and early morning. The secondary peak is much weaker in July, August, and September. Convection near the coast is found to occur preferentially on days when a southerly low-level jet (LLJ) exists, especially during the Meiyu season. Warm, moist, and unstable air is transported from the ocean to land by LLJs on these days, and the lifting along the coast by convergence induced by differential surface friction between the land and ocean is believed to be the primary cause for the high frequency along the coast. In contrast, the high frequency over mountainous area is believed to be due to orographic lifting of generally southerly flows during the warm season.

  3. Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillott, Andrea D; Grogan, Laura F; Cashins, Scott D; McDonald, Keith R; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F

    2013-10-01

    Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses, the assessment of their genetic and cytogenetic effects and biomass production from grass. Annual progress report, November 1, 1979 to October 31, 1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.W.; Hanna, W.W.

    1980-01-01

    New techniques are described for using irradiation and chemical mutagens in the genetic improvement of several warm season grasses. Genetic and cytogenetic effects of these treatments are also being studied

  5. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses and an assessment of the genetic and cytogenetic effects. Progress report, May 1, 1975--April 30, 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.W.; Hanna, W.W.

    1976-06-01

    Irradiation ( 60 Coγ source) was used for the genetic improvement of several warm season grasses and pearl millet. Results of plant breeding experiments using radioinduced mutants of Bermuda grass and millet are reported

  6. Phenotyping Drought Tolerance and Yield Potential of Warm-Season Legumes Through Field- and Airborne-Based Hyperspectral VSWIR Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewry, D.; Berny-Mier y Teran, J. C.; Dutta, D.; Gepts, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hyperspectral sensing in the visible through shortwave infrared (VSWIR) portion of the spectrum has been demonstrated to provide significant information on the structural and functional properties of vegetation, resulting in powerful techniques to discern species differences, characterize crop nutrient or water stress, and quantify the density of foliage in agricultural fields. Modern machine-learning techniques allow for the entire set of spectral bands, on the order of hundreds with modern field and airborne spectrometers, to be used to develop models that can simultaneously retrieve a variety of foliar chemical compounds and hydrological and structural states. The application of these techniques, in the context of leaf-level measurements of VSWIR reflectance, or more complicated remote airborne surveys, has the potential to revolutionize high-throughput methods to phenotype germplasm that optimizes yield, resource-use efficiencies, or alternate objectives related to disease resistance or biomass accumulation, for example. Here we focus on breeding trials for a set of warm-season legumes, conducted in both greenhouse and field settings, and spanning a set of diverse genotypes providing a range of adaptation to drought and yield potential in the context of the semi-arid climate cultivation. At the leaf-level, a large set of spectral reflectance measurements spanning 400-2500 nanometers were made for plants across various growth stages in field experiments that induced severe drought, along with sampling for relevant trait values. Here we will discuss the development and performance of algorithms for a range of leaf traits related to gas exchange, leaf structure, hydrological status, nutrient contents and stable isotope discrimination, along with their relationships to drought resistance and yield. We likewise discuss the effectiveness of quantifying relevant foliar and canopy traits through airborne imaging spectroscopy from small unmanned vehicles (sUAVs), and

  7. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

  8. Modelling seasonal effects of temperature and precipitation on honey bee winter mortality in a temperate climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switanek, Matthew; Crailsheim, Karl; Truhetz, Heimo; Brodschneider, Robert

    2017-02-01

    Insect pollinators are essential to global food production. For this reason, it is alarming that honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations across the world have recently seen increased rates of mortality. These changes in colony mortality are often ascribed to one or more factors including parasites, diseases, pesticides, nutrition, habitat dynamics, weather and/or climate. However, the effect of climate on colony mortality has never been demonstrated. Therefore, in this study, we focus on longer-term weather conditions and/or climate's influence on honey bee winter mortality rates across Austria. Statistical correlations between monthly climate variables and winter mortality rates were investigated. Our results indicate that warmer and drier weather conditions in the preceding year were accompanied by increased winter mortality. We subsequently built a statistical model to predict colony mortality using temperature and precipitation data as predictors. Our model reduces the mean absolute error between predicted and observed colony mortalities by 9% and is statistically significant at the 99.9% confidence level. This is the first study to show clear evidence of a link between climate variability and honey bee winter mortality. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The Effect of Passive Design Strategies on Thermal Performance of Female Secondary School Buildings during Warm Season in Hot Dry Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar eZahiri

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a series of field studies and simulation analysis to improve the thermal performance of school buildings in the city of Tehran in Iran during warm season. The field studies used on-site measurement and questionnaire-based survey in the warm spring season in a typical female secondary school building. The on-site monitoring assessed the indoor air temperature and humidity levels of six classrooms while the occupants completed questionnaires covering their thermal sensations and thermal preferences. Moreover, thermal simulation analysis was also carried out to evaluate and improve the thermal performance of the classrooms based on the students’ thermal requirements and passive design strategies. In this study, the environmental design guidelines for female secondary school buildings were introduced for the hot and dry climate of Tehran, using passive design strategies. The study shows that the application of passive design strategies including south and south-east orientation, 10cm thermal insulation in wall and 5cm in the roof, and the combination of 30cm side fins and overhangs as a solar shading devices, as well as all-day ventilation strategy and the use of thermal mass materials with 25cm-30cm thickness, has considerable impact on indoor air temperatures in warm season in Tehran and keeps the indoor environment in an acceptable thermal condition. The results of the field studies also indicated that most of the occupants found their thermal environment not to be comfortable and the simulation results showed that passive design techniques had a significant influence on the indoor air temperature and can keep it in an acceptable range based on the female students’ thermal requirement. Therefore, in order to enhance the indoor environment and to increase the learning performance of the students, it is necessary to use the appropriate passive design strategies, which also reduce the need for mechanical systems and

  10. EFFECT OF PRE-COOLING ON REPEAT-SPRINT PERFORMANCE IN SEASONALLY ACCLIMATISED MALES DURING AN OUTDOOR SIMULATED TEAM-SPORT PROTOCOL IN WARM CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carly J. Brade

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Whether precooling is beneficial for exercise performance in warm climates when heat acclimatised is unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of precooling on repeat-sprint performance during a simulated team-sport circuit performed outdoors in warm, dry field conditions in seasonally acclimatised males (n = 10. They performed two trials, one with precooling (PC; ice slushy and cooling jacket and another without (CONT. Trials began with a 30-min baseline/cooling period followed by an 80 min repeat-sprint protocol, comprising 4 x 20-min quarters, with 2 x 5-min quarter breaks and a 10-min half-time recovery/cooling period. A clear and substantial (negative; PC slower effect was recorded for first quarter circuit time. Clear and trivial effects were recorded for overall circuit time, third and fourth quarter sprint times and fourth quarter best sprint time, otherwise unclear and trivial effects were recorded for remaining performance variables. Core temperature was moderately lower (Cohen's d=0.67; 90% CL=-1.27, 0.23 in PC at the end of the precooling period and quarter 1. No differences were found for mean skin temperature, heart rate, thermal sensation, or rating of perceived exertion, however, moderate Cohen's d effect sizes suggested a greater sweat loss in PC compared with CONT. In conclusion, repeat- sprint performance was neither clearly nor substantially improved in seasonally acclimatised players by using a combination of internal and external cooling methods prior to and during exercise performed in the field in warm, dry conditions. Of practical importance, precooling appears unnecessary for repeat-sprint performance if athletes are seasonally acclimatised or artificially acclimated to heat, as it provides no additional benefit

  11. Mean surface fields of heat budget components over the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.; Rao, B.P.

    Andaman Islands and in the MT area there is an association between SST and Q n . But, off Sri Lanka warmer waters were noticed eventhough Q n was negative. This gives a clue that the role of advection plays a dominant role in the maintenance of SST.... Maintenance of warmwaters could be due to the transport of heat from North to South during post-monsoon season. Individual contributions from advection and air-sea fluxes towards SST would throw better light on the formation of warm pool in Bay of Bengal...

  12. Seasonal Patterns of Sporophyte Growth, Fertility, Fouling, and Mortality of Saccharina latissima in Skagerrak, Norway: Implications for Forest Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guri Sogn Andersen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available On the Skagerrak coast the kelp Saccharina latissima has suffered severe stand reductions over the last decade, resulting in loss of important habitats. In the present study, healthy kelp plants were transplanted into four deforested areas and their patterns of growth, reproduction, and survival were monitored through subsequent seasons. Our main objective was to establish whether the kelp plants were able to grow and mature in deforested areas. We observed normal patterns of growth and maturation at all study sites. However, heavy fouling by epiphytes occurred each summer, followed by high kelp mortality. The study shows that the seasonal variations and the life stage timing of S. latissima make formation of self-sustainable populations impossible in the present environment. Most noteworthy, we suggest that fouling by epiphytes is involved in the lack of kelp forest recovery in Skagerrak, Norway.

  13. Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Yu, Rong

    2018-03-01

    Projected changes of the thermal growing season (TGS) over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels are investigated using 22 CMIP5 models under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The multi-model mean projections indicate Northern Eurasia will experience extended and intensified TGSs in a warmer world. The prolongation of TGSs under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming is attributed to both earlier onset and later termination, with the latter factor playing a dominating role. Interestingly, earlier onset is of greater importance under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 in prolonging TGS as the world warms by an additional 0.5 °C. Under both RCPs, growing degree day sum (GDD) above 5 °C is anticipated to increase by 0 °C-450 °C days and 0 °C-650 °C days over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. However, effective GDD (EGDD) which accumulates optimum temperature for the growth of wheat, exhibits a decline in the south of Central Asia under warmer climates. Therefore, for wheat production over Northern Eurasia, adverse effects incurred by scorching temperatures and resultant inadequacy in water availability may counteract benefits from lengthening and warming TGS. In response to a future 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, proper management and scientifically-tailored adaptation are imperative to optimize local-regional agricultural production.

  14. Direct and indirect mortality in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Nathan; Houser, Chris; Meyer-Arendt, Klaus

    2011-07-01

    Previous studies have shown that natural disasters, and hurricanes in particular, have led to more deaths than those usually documented in short post-storm surveys. Such indirect deaths, thought to be related to dietary, stress or pre-existing medical conditions, can exceed the number of direct deaths and may persist for weeks or even months beyond the event itself. In the present study, cumulative sum of deviations plots are used to quantify the number of direct and indirect deaths resulting from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne that made landfall in Florida in 2004. Results suggest that there was an elevated mortality for up to 2 months following each storm, resulting in a total of 624 direct and indirect deaths attributable to the storm. Trauma-related deaths that can be associated directly with the storm account for only ˜4% of the total storm-related mortality, while indirect mortality accounts for most storm-related deaths. Specifically, a large percentage of the elevated mortality was associated with heart (34%) and cancer-related deaths (19%), while diabetes (5%) and accident-related deaths (9%) account for a smaller but still significant percentage of the elevated mortality. The results further suggest that the elevated mortality was the result of additional deaths that would not have otherwise occurred within that 5 month period, and not simply a clustering of deaths that were inevitable between 1 August and 31 December 2004. The elevated mortality identified in this study is significantly greater than the official count of 31 direct and 113 indirect deaths resulting from the four hurricanes combined. This suggests a need for improved mortality counts and surveillance in order to better evaluate and identify effective prevention policies, and to identify preventable deaths.

  15. Case-based reported mortality associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection in the Netherlands: the 2009-2010 pandemic season versus the 2010-2011 influenza season

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    Timen Aura

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In contrast to seasonal influenza epidemics, where the majority of deaths occur amongst elderly, a considerable part of the 2009 pandemic influenza related deaths concerned relatively young people. In the Netherlands, all deaths associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection had to be notified, both during the 2009-2010 pandemic season and the 2010-2011 influenza season. To assess whether and to what extent pandemic mortality patterns were reverting back to seasonal patterns, a retrospective analyses of all notified fatal cases associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection was performed. Methods The notification database, including detailed information about the clinical characteristics of all notified deaths, was used to perform a comprehensive analysis of all deceased patients with a laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection. Characteristics of the fatalities with respect to age and underlying medical conditions were analysed, comparing the 2009-2010 pandemic and the 2010-2011 influenza season. Results A total of 65 fatalities with a laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1 2009 virus infection were notified in 2009-2010 and 38 in 2010-2011. During the pandemic season, the population mortality rates peaked in persons aged 0-15 and 55-64 years. In the 2010-2011 influenza season, peaks in mortality were seen in persons aged 0-15 and 75-84 years. During the 2010-2011 influenza season, the height of first peak was lower compared to that during the pandemic season. Underlying immunological disorders were more common in the pandemic season compared to the 2010-2011 season (p = 0.02, and cardiovascular disorders were more common in the 2010-2011 season (p = 0.005. Conclusions The mortality pattern in the 2010-2011 influenza season still resembled the 2009-2010 pandemic season with a peak in relatively young age groups, but concurrently a clear shift toward

  16. Season exerts differential effects of ocean acidification and warming on growth and carbon metabolism of the seaweed Fucus vesiculosus in the western Baltic Sea

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    Angelika eGraiff

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Warming and acidification of the oceans as a consequence of increasing CO2-concentrations occur at large scales. Numerous studies have shown the impact of single stressors on individual species. However, studies on the combined effect of multiple stressors on a multi-species assemblage, which is ecologically much more realistic and relevant, are still scarce. Therefore, we orthogonally crossed the two factors warming and acidification in mesocosm experiments and studied their single and combined impact on the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus associated with its natural community (epiphytes and mesograzers in the Baltic Sea in all seasons (from April 2013 to April 2014. We superimposed our treatment factors onto the natural fluctuations of all environmental variables present in the Benthocosms in so-called delta-treatments. Thereby we compared the physiological responses of F. vesiculosus (growth and metabolites to the single and combined effects of natural Kiel Fjord temperatures and pCO2 conditions with a 5 °C temperature increase and/or pCO2 increase treatment (1100 ppm in the headspace above the mesocosms. Responses were also related to the factor photoperiod which changes over the course of the year. Our results demonstrate complex seasonal pattern. Elevated pCO2 positively affected growth of F. vesiculosus alone and/or interactively with warming. The response direction (additive, synergistic or antagonistic, however, depended on season and daylength. The effects were most obvious when plants were actively growing during spring and early summer. Our study revealed for the first time that it is crucial to always consider the impact of variable environmental conditions throughout all seasons. In summary, our study indicates that in future F. vesiculosus will be more affected by detrimental summer heat-waves than by ocean acidification although the latter consequently enhances growth throughout the year. The mainly negative influence of rising

  17. Trend and Seasonal Patterns of Injuries and Mortality Due to Motorcyclists Traffic Accidents; A Hospital-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinpour, Marjan; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Esmaeilpour Aghdam, Mohammad; Mohammadian, Mahdi; Maleki, Farzad

    2017-01-01

    To investigate trend and seasonal pattern of occurrence and mortality of motorcycle accidents in patients referred to hospitals of Isfahan. This cross-sectional study was carried out using traffic accidents data of Isfahan province, extracted from Ministry of Health (MOH) database from 2006 to 2010. During the study period, 83648 people injured due to motorcycle traffic accidents were referred to hospitals, all of them entered in the study. Logistic regression model was used to calculate the hospital mortality odds ratio, and Cochrane-Armitage test was used for assessment of linear trend. During the study period, the hospital admission for motorcycle accident was 83,648 and 89.3% (74743) of them were men. Mean age in accidents time was 26.41±14.3 years. The injuries and death sex ratio were 8.4 and 16.9, respectively. Lowest admission rate was during autumn and highest during summer. The injury mortality odds ratio was 1.01 (CI 95% 0.73-1.39) in the Spring, 1.34 (CI95% 1.01-1.79) in summer and 1.17 (CI95% 0.83-1.63). It was also calculated to be 2.51 (CI95% 1.36-4.64) in age group 40-49, 2.39 (CI95% 1.51-5.68) in 50-59 and 4.79 (CI95% 2.49-9.22) in 60-69 years. The mortality odds ratio was 3.53 (CI95% 2.77-4.5) in rural place, 1.33 (CI95% 1.15-1.54) in men, and 2.44 (CI95% 2.09-2.85) in the road out of town and village. In addition, trend of motorcycle accidents mortality was increasing ( p accidents injuries are more common in men, summer, young age and rural roads. These high risk groups need more attention, care and higher training.

  18. Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joacim Rocklöv

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation, while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

  19. Morbidity, Mortality, and Seasonality of Influenza Hospitalizations in Egypt, November 2007-November 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Kandeel, Amr; Dawson, Patrick; Labib, Manal; Said, Mayar; El-Refai, Samir; El-Gohari, Amani; Talaat, Maha

    2016-01-01

    Background Influenza typically comprises a substantial portion of acute respiratory infections, a leading cause of mortality worldwide. However, influenza epidemiology data are lacking in Egypt. We describe seven years of Egypt?s influenza hospitalizations from a multi-site influenza surveillance system. Methods Syndromic case definitions identified individuals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to eight hospitals in Egypt. Standardized demographic and clinical data were ...

  20. Mortality Associated With Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Among Pregnant and Nonpregnant Women of Childbearing Age in a High-HIV-Prevalence Setting-South Africa, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tempia, Stefano; Walaza, Sibongile; Cohen, Adam L; von Mollendorf, Claire; Moyes, Jocelyn; McAnerney, Johanna M; Cohen, Cheryl

    2015-10-01

    Information on the mortality burden associated with seasonal and pandemic influenza virus infection among pregnant women is scarce in most settings, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where pregnancy and maternal mortality rates as well as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence are elevated. We used an ecological study design to estimate the seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza-associated mortality among pregnant and nonpregnant women of childbearing age (15-49 years) by HIV serostatus during 1999-2009 in South Africa. Mortality rates were expressed per 100 000 person-years. During 1999-2009, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates were 12.6 (123 deaths) and 7.3 (914 deaths) among pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively. Among pregnant women, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rates were 74.9 (109 deaths) among HIV-infected and 1.5 (14 deaths) among HIV-uninfected individuals. Among nonpregnant women, the estimated mean annual seasonal influenza-associated mortality rate was 41.2 (824 deaths) among HIV-infected and 0.9 (90 deaths) among HIV-uninfected individuals. Pregnant women experienced an increased risk of seasonal influenza-associated mortality compared with nonpregnant women (relative risk [RR], 2.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-3.9). In 2009, the estimated influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated mortality rates were 19.3 (181 deaths) and 9.4 (1189 deaths) among pregnant and nonpregnant women, respectively (RR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.3-4.1). Among women of childbearing age, the majority of estimated seasonal influenza-associated deaths occurred in HIV-infected individuals. Pregnant women experienced an increased risk of death associated with seasonal and A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza infection compared with nonpregnant women. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Seasonal growth and mortality of juveniles of Lampsilis fasciola (Bivalvia: Unionidae) released to a fish hatchery raceway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanlon, Shane D.; Neves, Richard J.

    2006-01-01

    Recent efforts to restore remnant or extirpated populations of freshwater mussels have focused on artificial propagation as an effective and practical conservation strategy. Although artificially cultured juveniles have been produced and released to the wild at various times of the year, no study has investigated the best time of year to release these juveniles. Newly metamorphosed juveniles of the wavyrayed lampmussel (Lampsilis fasciola) were released into a stream-fed fish hatchery raceway during March, June, and September. Growth and survival rates were measured 32, 52, 72, and 92 days post-metamorphosis. Juveniles released in June experienced the greatest growth and survival rates. Juveniles released in September and March experienced high mortality within the first month of release and exhibited poor growth in the cool water conditions typical of those seasons. Overwinter survival exhibited a size-dependent relationship.

  2. A warm-season comparison of WRF coupled to the CLM4.0, Noah-MP, and Bucket hydrology land surface schemes over the central USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Kalin, Andrew; Alavez, Jose Abraham Torres; Oglesby, Robert; Hu, Qi

    2017-11-01

    In climate modeling studies, there is a need to choose a suitable land surface model (LSM) while adhering to available resources. In this study, the viability of three LSM options (Community Land Model version 4.0 [CLM4.0], Noah-MP, and the five-layer thermal diffusion [Bucket] scheme) in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF3.6) was examined for the warm season in a domain centered on the central USA. Model output was compared to Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data, a gridded observational dataset including mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation. Model output temperature, precipitation, latent heat (LH) flux, sensible heat (SH) flux, and soil water content (SWC) were compared to observations from sites in the Central and Southern Great Plains region. An overall warm bias was found in CLM4.0 and Noah-MP, with a cool bias of larger magnitude in the Bucket model. These three LSMs produced similar patterns of wet and dry biases. Model output of SWC and LH/SH fluxes were compared to observations, and did not show a consistent bias. Both sophisticated LSMs appear to be viable options for simulating the effects of land use change in the central USA.

  3. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welford, Mark R; Bossak, Brian H

    2009-12-22

    Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  4. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in medieval plagues, including the Black Death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R Welford

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues" and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900+/-15 years. Previous works have noted apparent differences in seasonal mortality peaks during Black Death outbreaks versus peaks of bubonic and pneumonic plagues attributed to Y. pestis infection, but have not provided spatiotemporal statistical support. Our objective here was to validate individual observations of this seasonal discrepancy in peak mortality between historical epidemics and modern empirical data. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compiled and aggregated multiple daily, weekly and monthly datasets of both Y. pestis plague epidemics and suspected Black Death epidemics to compare seasonal differences in mortality peaks at a monthly resolution. Statistical and time series analyses of the epidemic data indicate that a seasonal inversion in peak mortality does exist between known Y. pestis plague and suspected Black Death epidemics. We provide possible explanations for this seasonal inversion. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results add further evidence of inconsistency between historical plagues, including the Black Death, and our current understanding of Y. pestis-variant disease. We expect that the line of inquiry into the disputed cause of the greatest recorded epidemic will continue to intensify. Given the rapid pace of environmental change in the modern world, it is crucial that we understand past lethal outbreaks as fully as possible in order to prepare for future deadly pandemics.

  5. Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

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    Magali Lemaitre

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. METHODS: We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. RESULTS: The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI 0.2-1.9 excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45 for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7 for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable

  6. Tree mortality from fire and bark beetles following early and late season prescribed fires in a Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwilk, Dylan W.; Knapp, Eric E.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Keeley, Jon E.; Caprio, Anthony C.

    2006-01-01

    Over the last century, fire exclusion in the forests of the Sierra Nevada has allowed surface fuels to accumulate and has led to increased tree density. Stand composition has also been altered as shade tolerant tree species crowd out shade intolerant species. To restore forest structure and reduce the risk of large, intense fires, managers have increasingly used prescription burning. Most fires prior to EuroAmerican settlement occurred during the late summer and early fall and most prescribed burning has taken place during the latter part of this period. Poor air quality and lack of suitable burn windows during the fall, however, have resulted in a need to conduct more prescription burning earlier in the season. Previous reports have suggested that burning during the time when trees are actively growing may increase mortality rates due to fine root damage and/or bark beetle activity. This study examines the effects of fire on tree mortality and bark beetle attacks under prescription burning during early and late season. Replicated early season burn, late season burn and unburned control plots were established in an old-growth mixed conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada that had not experienced a fire in over 120 years. Although prescribed burns resulted in significant mortality of particularly the smallest tree size classes, no difference between early and late season burns was detected. Direct mortality due to fire was associated with fire intensity. Secondary mortality due to bark beetles was not significantly correlated with fire intensity. The probability of bark beetle attack on pines did not differ between early and late season burns, while the probability of bark beetle attack on firs was greater following early season burns. Overall tree mortality appeared to be primarily the result of fire intensity rather than tree phenology at the time of the burns. Early season burns are generally conducted under higher fuel moisture conditions, leading to less fuel

  7. Disentangling Seasonality and Mean Annual Precipitation in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: Insights from Coupled Plant Wax C and H Isotope Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galy, V.; Oppo, D.; Dubois, N.; Arbuszewski, J. A.; Mohtadi, M.; Schefuss, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

    2016-12-01

    There is ample evidence suggesting that rainfall distribution across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) - a key component of the global climate system - has substantially varied over the last deglaciation. Yet, the precise nature of these hydroclimate changes remains to be elucidated. In particular, the relative importance of variations in precipitation seasonality versus annual precipitation amount is essentially unknown. Here we use a set of surface sediments from the IPWP covering a wide range of modern hydroclimate conditions to evaluate how plant wax stable isotope composition records rainfall distribution in the area. We focus on long chain fatty acids, which are exclusively produced by vascular plants living on nearby land and delivered to the ocean by rivers. We relate the C (δ13C) and H (δD) isotope composition of long chain fatty acids preserved in surface sediments to modern precipitation distribution and stable isotope composition in their respective source area. We show that: 1) δ13C values reflect vegetation distribution (in particular the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants) and are primarily recording precipitation seasonality (Dubois et al., 2014) and, 2) once corrected for plant fractionation effects, δD values reflect the amount-weighted average stable isotope composition of precipitation and are primarily recording annual precipitation amounts. We propose that combining the C and H isotope composition of long chain fatty acids thus allows independent reconstructions of precipitation seasonality and annual amounts in the IPWP. The practical implications for reconstructing past hydroclimate in the IPWP will be discussed.

  8. Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

  9. Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsyganov, A.N.; Aerts, R.; Nijs, I.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Beyens, L.

    2012-01-01

    Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming,

  10. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses and an assessment of the genetic and cytogenetic effects. Annual report, August 1, 1976--October 31, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.W.; Hanna, W.W.

    1977-08-01

    New techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of several warm season grasses are described. The economic value of radiation induced plant mutants and the genetic and cytogenetic effects of these treatments are discussed. Alterations in protein quality in pearl millet grain and improved varieties of Bermuda grass following radiation treatment are reported

  11. The Role of Vegetation in Mitigating Urban Land Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Munich, Germany during the Warm Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadroddin Alavipanah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST and Land Use Land Cover (LULC, MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.

  12. Semidiurnal temperature changes caused by tidal front movements in the warm season in seabed habitats on the georges bank northern margin and their ecological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Vincent G; Valentine, Page C; Gallea, Leslie B

    2013-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow feature separating the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies demonstrated a strong tidal-mixing front during the warm season on the northern bank margin between thermally stratified water in the Gulf of Maine and mixed water on the bank. Tides transport warm water off the bank during flood tide and cool gulf water onto the bank during ebb tide. During 10 days in August 2009, we mapped frontal temperatures in five study areas along ∼100 km of the bank margin. The seabed "frontal zone", where temperature changed with frontal movment, experienced semidiurnal temperature maxima and minima. The tidal excursion of the frontal boundary between stratified and mixed water ranged 6 to 10 km. This "frontal boundary zone" was narrower than the frontal zone. Along transects perpendicular to the bank margin, seabed temperature change at individual sites ranged from 7.0°C in the frontal zone to 0.0°C in mixed bank water. At time series in frontal zone stations, changes during tidal cycles ranged from 1.2 to 6.1°C. The greatest rate of change (-2.48°C hr(-1)) occurred at mid-ebb. Geographic plots of seabed temperature change allowed the mapping of up to 8 subareas in each study area. The magnitude of temperature change in a subarea depended on its location in the frontal zone. Frontal movement had the greatest effect on seabed temperature in the 40 to 80 m depth interval. Subareas experiencing maximum temperature change in the frontal zone were not in the frontal boundary zone, but rather several km gulfward (off-bank) of the frontal boundary zone. These results provide a new ecological framework for examining the effect of tidally-driven temperature variability on the distribution, food resources, and reproductive success of benthic invertebrate and demersal fish species living in tidal front habitats.

  13. Seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate air pollution on mortality in the China Air Pollution and Health Effects Study (CAPES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Renjie; Peng, Roger D.; Meng, Xia; Zhou, Zhijun; Chen, Bingheng; Kan, Haidong

    2013-01-01

    Epidemiological findings concerning the seasonal variation in the acute effect of particulate matter (PM) are inconsistent. We investigated the seasonality in the association between PM with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) and daily mortality in 17 Chinese cities. We fitted the “main” time-series model after adjustment for time-varying confounders using smooth functions with natural splines. We established a “seasonal” model to obtain the season-specific effect estimates of PM10, and a “harmonic” model to show the seasonal pattern that allows PM10 effects to vary smoothly with the day in a year. At the national level, a 10 μg/m3 increase in the two-day moving average concentrations (lag 01) of PM10 was associated with 0.45% [95% posterior interval (PI), 0.15% to 0.76%], 0.17% (95% PI, −0.09% to 0.43%), 0.55% (95% PI, 0.15% to 0.96%) and 0.25% (95%PI, −0.05% to 0.56%) increases in total mortality for winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively. For the smoothly-varying plots of seasonality, we identified a two-peak pattern in winter and summer. The observed seasonal pattern was generally insensitive to model specifications. Our analyses suggest that the acute effect of particulate air pollution could vary by seasons with the largest effect in winter and summer in China. To our knowledge, this is the first multicity study in developing countries to analyze the seasonal variations of PM-related health effects. PMID:23500824

  14. Variations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air during haze and non-haze episodes in warm seasons in Hangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Shengsheng; Wu, Zuliang; Yao, Shuiliang; Han, Jingyi; Tang, Xiujuan; Jiang, Boqiong

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during haze episodes in warm seasons, daily PM 2.5 and gaseous samples were collected from March to September 2015 in Hangzhou, China. Daily samples were further divided into four groups by the definition of haze according to visibility and relative humidity (RH), including non-haze (visibility, >10 km), light haze (visibility, 8-10 km, RH <90 %), medium haze (visibility, 5-8 km, RH <90 %), and heavy haze (visibility, <5 km, RH <90 %). Significantly higher concentrations of PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were found in haze days, but the mean PM 2.5 -bound PAH concentrations obviously decreased with the aggravation of haze pollution from light to heavy. The gas/particle partitioning coefficients of PAHs decreased from light-haze to heavy-haze episodes, which indicated that PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were restricted to adhere to the particulate phase with the aggravation of haze pollution. Absorption was considered the main mechanism of gas/particle partitioning of PAHs from gaseous to particulate phase. Analysis of air mass transport indicated that the PM 2.5 -bound PAH pollution in haze days was largely from regional sources but also significantly affected by long-range air mass transport. The inhalation cancer risk associated with PAHs exceeded the acceptable risk level markedly in both haze and non-haze days.

  15. Observed and Projected Changes in Thermal Growing Degree-Days and Growing Season and Their Divergent Responses to Warming over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, H.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS). By choosing 0°C, 5°C and 10°C, three key based temperatures (Tb) for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during the observed period (1960-2011) were developed using homogenized daily mean temperatures (Td) in 536 meteorological stations. In addition, the GDD10 and GS10 in China were projected under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs) during 1961-2099, using the Td (0.5°×0.5°) derived from five general circulation models (GCMs), after model evaluation. Advance in the start of the growing season (SOS; 4.86-6.71 days; SOS0 > SOS5 > SOS10) and delay in the end of the growing season (EOS; 4.32-6.19 days; EOS0 GDD5 > GDD10), in China as a whole. Each observed variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Increases in the GDD10 and GS10 would continue in the 21st century, causing northward shifts in the temperature zones. Finally in the long-term (2071-2099), the nationally average GDD10 and GS10 would be 279.1°C·d higher and 16.5 d longer for RCP 2.6, and 964.4°C·d higher and 50.3 d longer for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Regionally, the GDD enhancement were stronger in the tropics, east, northeast and northwest China during the observed period, and tend to be in southern China in the future. The largest GS extensions are consistently in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Alpine zone, particularly in the future. During the observed period, advance in SOS and delay in EOS drove the GS extensions in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone respectively. In the future, an advanced SOS drives the GS extension in the northern (> ca. 33°N) Tibetan Alpine zone, the mountainous areas in northeast China, and south of the Tropic of Cancer. The GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the temperature (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10

  16. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

  17. Seasonal variations of U.S. mortality rates: Roles of solar ultraviolet-B doses, vitamin D, gene exp ression, and infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, William B; Bhattoa, Harjit Pal; Boucher, Barbara J

    2017-10-01

    Death rates in the U.S. show a pronounced seasonality. The broad seasonal variation shows about 25% higher death rates in winter than in summer with an additional few percent increase associated with the Christmas and New Year's holidays. A pronounced increase in death rates also starts in mid-September, shortly after the school year begins. The causes of death with large contributions to the observed seasonality include diseases of the circulatory system; the respiratory system; the digestive system; and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases. Researchers have identified several factors showing seasonal variation that could possibly explain the seasonal variations in mortality rate. These factors include seasonal variations in solar ultraviolet-B(UVB) doses and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, gene expression, ambient temperature and humidity, UVB effects on environmental pathogen load, environmental pollutants and allergens, and photoperiod (or length of day). The factors with the strongest support in this analysis are seasonal variations in solar UVB doses and 25(OH)D concentrations. In the U.S., population mean 25(OH)D concentrations range from 21ng/mL in March to 28ng/mL in August. Measures to ensure that all people had 25(OH)D concentrations >36ng/mL year round would probably reduce death rates significantly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2013-01-01

    Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

  19. Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

    2012-05-01

    Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  20. Semidiurnal Temperature Changes Caused by Tidal Front Movements in the Warm Season in Seabed Habitats on the Georges Bank Northern Margin and Their Ecological Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Vincent G.; Valentine, Page C.; Gallea, Leslie B.

    2013-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow feature separating the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies demonstrated a strong tidal-mixing front during the warm season on the northern bank margin between thermally stratified water in the Gulf of Maine and mixed water on the bank. Tides transport warm water off the bank during flood tide and cool gulf water onto the bank during ebb tide. During 10 days in August 2009, we mapped frontal temperatures in five study areas along ∼100 km of the bank margin. The seabed “frontal zone”, where temperature changed with frontal movment, experienced semidiurnal temperature maxima and minima. The tidal excursion of the frontal boundary between stratified and mixed water ranged 6 to 10 km. This “frontal boundary zone” was narrower than the frontal zone. Along transects perpendicular to the bank margin, seabed temperature change at individual sites ranged from 7.0°C in the frontal zone to 0.0°C in mixed bank water. At time series in frontal zone stations, changes during tidal cycles ranged from 1.2 to 6.1°C. The greatest rate of change (−2.48°C hr−1) occurred at mid-ebb. Geographic plots of seabed temperature change allowed the mapping of up to 8 subareas in each study area. The magnitude of temperature change in a subarea depended on its location in the frontal zone. Frontal movement had the greatest effect on seabed temperature in the 40 to 80 m depth interval. Subareas experiencing maximum temperature change in the frontal zone were not in the frontal boundary zone, but rather several km gulfward (off-bank) of the frontal boundary zone. These results provide a new ecological framework for examining the effect of tidally-driven temperature variability on the distribution, food resources, and reproductive success of benthic invertebrate and demersal fish species living in tidal front habitats. PMID:23405129

  1. A Comparison of the Diel Cycle of Modeled and Measured Latent Heat Flux During the Warm Season in a Colorado Subalpine Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Sean P.; Swenson, Sean C.; Wieder, William R.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.

    2018-03-01

    Precipitation changes the physiological characteristics of an ecosystem. Because land-surface models are often used to project changes in the hydrological cycle, modeling the effect of precipitation on the latent heat flux λE is an important aspect of land-surface models. Here we contrast conditionally sampled diel composites of the eddy-covariance fluxes from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux tower with the Community Land Model (CLM, version 4.5). With respect to measured λE during the warm season: for the day following above-average precipitation, λE was enhanced at midday by ≈40 W m-2 (relative to dry conditions), and nocturnal λE increased from ≈10 W m-2 in dry conditions to over 20 W m-2 in wet conditions. With default settings, CLM4.5 did not successfully model these changes. By increasing the amount of time that rainwater was retained by the canopy/needles, CLM was able to match the observed midday increase in λE on a dry day following a wet day. Stable nighttime conditions were problematic for CLM4.5. Nocturnal CLM λE had only a small (≈3 W m-2) increase during wet conditions, CLM nocturnal friction velocity u∗ was smaller than observed u∗, and CLM canopy air temperature was 2°C less than those measured at the site. Using observed u∗ as input to CLM increased λE; however, this caused CLM λE to be increased during both wet and dry periods. We suggest that sloped topography and the ever-present drainage flow enhanced nocturnal u∗ and λE. Such phenomena would not be properly captured by topographically blind land-surface models, such as CLM.

  2. Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2018-01-01

    Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

  3. Forage yield and nitrogen nutrition dynamics of warm-season native forage genotypes under two shading levels and in full sunlight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Santiago Barro

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The successful achievement of a highly productive understorey pasture in silvopastoral systems depends on the use of well-adapted forage genotypes, showing good agronomic performance and persistence under shading and grazing. In this study, the herbage dry matter yield (DMY and nitrogen nutrition dynamics were determined in three native warm-season grasses (Paspalum regnellii, Paspalum dilatatum and Paspalum notatum and a forage legume (Arachis pintoi under two shading levels compared with full sun. The experiment was conducted in the Campanha region, Bagé, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during two evaluation cycles (2008/2009 and 2009/2010. Three shade cloth levels (0%, 50% and 80% of light restriction were applied to the forage genotypes in a split plot design, in which shading levels were the main plot and forage genotypes were the subplots, with three replications. P. regnellii showed the highest accumulated DMY (1500 and 1700 g m-2, respectively, for the first and second evaluation cycles at all shading levels and showed no DMY decreased under the heavy shade (80%. Average DMY over the four genotypes under the 50% shade level was higher or equal compared with full sun. Influence of rainfall was observed on the DMY performance of all genotypes: the positive effect of moderate shading (50% on P. dilatatum and P. notatum DMY was associated to a low soil water availability status. Increased shading level resulted in high nitrogen nutrition index values on grasses, in comparison with full sun. All genotypes performed well under the moderate shading level, but the DMY of both P. regnellii and P. dilatatum and the herbage N content in P. notatum and A. pintoi of all genotypes stood out, showing that those main genotypes are promising to grow in silvopastoral systems at the Campanha region in southern Brazil.

  4. Consequences of cool-season drought induced plant mortality to Chihuahuan Desert grassland ecosystem and soil respiration dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global climate change is predicted to increase the severity and frequency of cool-season drought across the arid Southwest US. We quantified net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) in response to interannual seasonal precip...

  5. Greenhouse gas flux under warm-season perennial C4 grasses across different soil and climate gradients on the Islands of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlowski, M. N.; Crow, S. E.; Sumiyoshi, Y.; Wells, J.; Kikkawa, H. R.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural soils can serve as either a sink or a source for atmospheric carbon (C) and other greenhouse gases (GHG). This is particularly true for tropical soils where influences from climate and soil gradients are wide ranging. Current estimates of GHG flux from soil are often under or overestimated due to high variability in sample sites and inconsistencies in land use and vegetation type, making extrapolation to new study systems difficult. This work aimed to identify patterns of trace fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) across two soil types and three species of warm season perennial C4 grasses: Pennisetum purpureum (Napier grass), Panicum maximum (Guinea grass) and Saccharum officinarum (sugar cane) on the islands of Oahu and Maui in Hawaii. Multiple static vented chambers were installed into replicate plots for each species; flux measurements were made during the growth, fertilization and harvest cycles at set time intervals for one hour and analyzed by gas chromatography. Initial results from Oahu indicate no significant differences in CO2 flux between the P. maximum and P. purpureum species after fertilization or at full growth. We observed an average flux of 143 mg m-2 h-1 and 155 mg m-2 h-1 for P. maximum and P. purpureum respectively at full growth for CO2 and 1.7 μg m-2 h-1and 0.3 μg m-2 h-1 for N2O. Additionally, N2O rates sampled after a typical fertilizer application were significantly greater than at full growth (p=0.0005) with flux rates of 25.2 μg m2h-1 and 30.3 μg m2h-1 for P. maximum and P. purpureum respectively. With a global warming potential of 310 for N2O, even short-term spikes following fertilizer application can cause long lasting effects of GHG emission from agricultural soils. CH4 flux was negligible for all species on the Oahu plots during these sample periods. Globally, water limitation is a major factor influencing the potential productivity of agricultural crops and the sustainability of

  6. Variación estacional de la mortalidad en la ciudad de Valencia, España Seasonal variation of mortality rates within the city of Valencia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FERRAN BALLESTER-DÍEZ

    1997-03-01

    variable. La asociación de las variables de temperatura con la mortalidad es mayor en los grupos de edad más avanzada y en las mujeres. Conclusiones. Se observa una marcada variación estacional en la mortalidad por todas las causas en ambos sexos, con picos en las tasas de mortalidad en enero, y un menor número de defunciones en septiembre. La variación estacional en la mortalidad se hace mayor a medida que aumenta la edad, lo que no se aprecia en el grupo de edad más joven. Por sexos, el patrón estacional es más marcado en las mujeres que en los hombres, de tal modo que se aprecia una asociación positiva de mayor magnitud entre la mortalidad y la variable frío en los hombres del grupo de edad más elevado, y con la variable calor en las mujeres de mayor edad.Objective. To study the seasonal variation in mortality for all causes, grouped according to age and sex, within the city of Valencia during the period 1976-1990 and its relationship with air temperature. Material and methods. This is an ecological study using monthly global mortality and mean atmospheric temperature statistics for the city of Valencia, Spain between 1976 and 1990. The principal variable has turned out to be mortality for all causes. Mortality rates have been determined for specific age groups (0-4, 35-49, 50-64, 65-74 and > or = 75, as well as for both genders, within the city of Valencia for each of the 180-month period of investigation. Average monthly mortality data has been obtained and the percentage variation has been calculated. Graphical analysis has been used to examine the seasonal variation in mortality and in order to discern the nature of any relationship between atmospheric temperature and mortality. The regression line has been adjusted using the Loess method (smoothed regression motive, locally pondered. The association between mean temperature and mortality has calculated by means of multiple regression analysis controling for trend, seasonality and period effect. Results

  7. Winter excess in hospital admissions, in-patient mortality and length of acute hospital stay in stroke: a hospital database study over six seasonal years in Norfolk, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myint, Phyo K; Vowler, Sarah L; Woodhouse, Peter R; Redmayne, Oliver; Fulcher, Robert A

    2007-01-01

    Several studies have examined the incidence and mortality of stroke in relation to season. However, the evidence is conflicting partly due to variation in the populations (community vs. hospital-based), and in climatic conditions between studies. Moreover, they may not have been able to take into account the age, sex and stroke type of the study population. We hypothesized that the age, sex and type of stroke are major determinants of the presence or absence of winter excess in morbidity and mortality associated with stroke. We analyzed a hospital-based stroke register from Norfolk, UK to examine our prior hypothesis. Using Curwen's method, we performed stratified sex-specific analyses by (1) seasonal year and (2) quartiles of patients' age and stroke subtype and calculated the winter excess for the number of admissions, in-patient deaths and length of acute hospital stay. There were 5,481 patients (men=45%). Their ages ranged from 17 to 105 years (median=78 years). There appeared to be winter excess in hospital admissions, deaths and length of acute hospital stay overall accounting for 3/100,000 extra admissions (winter excess index of 3.4% in men and 7.6% in women) and 1/100,000 deaths (winter excess index of 4.7 and 8.6% in women) due to stroke in winter compared to non-winter periods. Older patients with non-haemorrhagic stroke mainly contribute to this excess. If our findings are replicated throughout England and Wales, it is estimated that there are 1,700 excess admissions, 600 excess in-patient deaths and 24,500 extra acute hospital bed days each winter, related to stroke within the current population of approximately 60 million. Further research should be focused on the determinants of winter excess in morbidity and mortality associated with stroke. This may subsequently reduce the morbidity and mortality by providing effective preventive strategies in future. (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses and an assessment of the genetic and cytogenetic effects. Progress report, November 1, 1977--October 31, 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, W.W.; Burton, G.W.

    1978-05-01

    Progress is reported on plant breeding programs for the genetic improvement of warm season grasses using irradiation as a tool. Data are included from studies on alteration of the protein quantity and quality in pearl millet grain by irradiation and mutation breeding; the effects of nitrogen and genotype on pearl millet grain; the effects of seed size on quality in pearl millet; irradiation breeding of sterile triploid turf Bermuda grasses; irradiation breeding of sterile coastcross-1, a forage grass, to increase winter hardiness; use of irradiation to induce resistance to rust disease; and an economic assessment of irradiation-induced mutants for plant breeding programs

  9. Seasonal Oxygen Dynamics in a Warm Temperate Estuary: Effects of Hydrologic Variability on Measurements of Primary Production, Respiration, and Net Metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal responses in estuarine metabolism (primary production, respiration, and net metabolism) were examined using two complementary approaches. Total ecosystem metabolism rates were calculated from dissolved oxygen time series using Odum’s open water method. Water column rates...

  10. Warm Season Storms, Floods, and Tributary Sand Inputs below Glen Canyon Dam: Investigating Salience to Adaptive Management in the Context of a 10-Year Long Controlled Flooding Experiment in Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, S.; Melis, T. S.; Topping, D. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Eischeid, J.

    2013-12-01

    The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) strive to balance numerous, often competing, objectives, such as, water supply, hydropower generation, low flow maintenance, maximizing conservation of downstream tributary sand supply, endangered native fish, and other sociocultural resources of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. In this context, use of monitored and predictive information on the warm season floods (at point-to-regional scales) has been identified as lead-information for a new 10-year long controlled flooding experiment (termed the High-Flow Experiment Protocol) intended to determine management options for rebuilding and maintaining sandbars in Grand Canyon; an adaptive strategy that can potentially facilitate improved planning and dam operations. In this work, we focus on a key concern identified by the GCDAMP, related to the timing and volume of tributary sand input from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers (located 26 and 124 km below the dam, respectively) into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Episodic and intraseasonal variations (with links to equatorial and sub-tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability) in the southwest hydroclimatology are investigated to understand the magnitude, timing and spatial scales of warm season floods from this relatively small, but prolific sand producing drainage of the semi-arid Colorado Plateau. The coupled variations of the flood-driven sediment input (magnitude and timing) from these two drainages into the Colorado River are also investigated. The physical processes, including diagnosis of storms and moisture sources, are mapped alongside the planning and decision processes for the ongoing experimental flood releases from the Glen Canyon Dam which are aimed at achieving restoration and maintenance of sandbars and instream ecology. The GCDAMP represents one of the most visible and widely recognized

  11. Modelled seasonal influenza mortality shows marked differences in risk by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khieu, Trang Q T; Pierse, Nevil; Telfar-Barnard, Lucy Frances; Zhang, Jane; Huang, Q Sue; Baker, Michael G

    2017-09-01

    Influenza is responsible for a large number of deaths which can only be estimated using modelling methods. Such methods have rarely been applied to describe the major socio-demographic characteristics of this disease burden. We used quasi Poisson regression models with weekly counts of deaths and isolates of influenza A, B and respiratory syncytial virus for the period 1994 to 2008. The estimated average mortality rate was 13.5 per 100,000 people which was 1.8% of all deaths in New Zealand. Influenza mortality differed markedly by age, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic position. Relatively vulnerable groups were males aged 65-79 years (Rate ratio (RR) = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.9, 1.9 compared with females), Māori (RR = 3.6, 95% CI: 3.6, 3.7 compared with European/Others aged 65-79 years), Pacific (RR = 2.4, 95% CI: 2.4, 2.4 compared with European/Others aged 65-79 years) and those living in the most deprived areas (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3, 2.4) for New Zealand Deprivation (NZDep) 9&10 (the most deprived) compared with NZDep 1&2 (the least deprived). These results support targeting influenza vaccination and other interventions to the most vulnerable groups, in particular Māori and Pacific people and men aged 65-79 years and those living in the most deprived areas. Copyright © 2017 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Human mortality seasonality in Castile-León, Spain, between 1980 and 1998: the influence of temperature, pressure and humidity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Raga, María; Tomás, Clemente; Fraile, Roberto

    2010-07-01

    This study was carried out in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain, from 1980 to 1998 and analyzes the relationship between the number of monthly deaths caused by cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases and three meteorological variables: temperature, pressure and humidity. One of the innovations in this study is the application of principal component analysis in a way that differs from its usual application: one single series representing the whole region was constructed for each meteorological variable from the series of eight weather stations. Annual and seasonal mortality trends were also studied. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Castile and Leon. The mortality related to cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems shows a statistically significant rising trend across the study period (an annual increase of 6, 16 and 4‰, respectively). The pressure at which mortality is lowest is approximately the same for all causes of death (about 915 hPa), but temperature values vary greatly (16.8-19.7°C for the mean, 10.9-18.1°C for the minimum, and 24.1-27.2°C for the maximum temperature). The most comfortable temperatures for patients with cardiovascular diseases (16.8°C) are apparently lower than those for patients with respiratory diseases (18.1°C), which are, in turn, lower than in the case of diseases of the digestive system (19.7°C). Finally, the optimal humidity for patients with respiratory diseases is the lowest (24%) among the diseases, and the highest (51%) corresponds to diseases of the digestive system, while the optimal relative humidity for the cardiovascular system is 45%.

  13. Investigation of the differences between deepening and intensification for 500-hpa cyclones in central and East Mediterranean region during warm season of the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Spanos

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The maximum deepening rate per cyclone track is determined by the maximum height drop at the center of the cyclone (500-hPa low on the basis of all the 6-h successive steps in its life cycle. The geopotential height gradient is calculated over the entire low area and the calculation continued with the variation of the gradient in the successive steps. The maximum intensification rate per cyclone is then determined as the maximum increase of the gradient in the life cycle. Maximum deepening rate for the 500-hPa cyclones in the area does not exceed, on average, 12 gpm/6 h. Maximum intensification which is 1.4 gpm/100 Km*6 h on average, occurs in the early stages of the cyclone's life cycle. This on the average happens approximately 9 h after the first time the low is detected. At the gulf of Genoa and the Adriatic Sea, cyclones usually show the maximum intensification after the maximum deepening. At Turkey's cyclogenesis area, however, this order is reversed. The spatial distributions of maximum intensification in the three sub-periods, indicate that it mainly occurs over Seas during late warm periods and over land during early and middle warm periods. Such a behavior underlines the role of low-level instability in cyclone development.

  14. Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai‘i

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ku‘ulei S. Rodgers

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Drastic increases in global carbon emissions in the past century have led to elevated sea surface temperatures that negatively affect coral reef organisms. Worldwide coral bleaching-related mortality is increasing and data has shown even isolated and protected reefs are vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In 2014 and 2015, coral reefs in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI suffered up to 90% bleaching, with higher than 50% subsequent mortality in some areas. The location and severity of bleaching and mortality was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal patterns of elevated seawater temperatures. The main objective of this research was to understand the spatial extent of bleaching mortality in Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP, O‘ahu, Hawai‘i to gain a baseline understanding of the physical processes that influence localized bleaching dynamics. Surveys at HBNP in October 2015 and January 2016 revealed extensive bleaching (47% and high levels of coral mortality (9.8%. Bleaching was highly variable among the four HBNP sectors and ranged from a low of ∼31% in the central bay at Channel (CH to a high of 57% in the area most frequented by visitors (Keyhole; KH. The highest levels of bleaching occurred in two sectors with different circulation patterns: KH experienced comparatively low circulation velocity and a low temperature increase while Witches Brew (WB and Backdoors (BD experienced higher circulation velocity and higher temperature increase. Cumulative mortality was highest at WB (5.0% and at BD (2.9% although WB circulation velocity is significantly higher. HBNP is minimally impacted by local factors that can lead to decline such as high fishing pressure or sedimentation although human use is high. Despite the lack of these influences, high coral mortality occurred. Visitor impacts are strikingly different in the two sectors that experienced the highest mortality evidenced by the differences in coral cover associated

  15. Patterns of bleaching and mortality following widespread warming events in 2014 and 2015 at the Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve, Hawai'i.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Ku'ulei S; Bahr, Keisha D; Jokiel, Paul L; Richards Donà, Angela

    2017-01-01

    Drastic increases in global carbon emissions in the past century have led to elevated sea surface temperatures that negatively affect coral reef organisms. Worldwide coral bleaching-related mortality is increasing and data has shown even isolated and protected reefs are vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In 2014 and 2015, coral reefs in the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) suffered up to 90% bleaching, with higher than 50% subsequent mortality in some areas. The location and severity of bleaching and mortality was strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal patterns of elevated seawater temperatures. The main objective of this research was to understand the spatial extent of bleaching mortality in Hanauma Bay Nature Preserve (HBNP), O'ahu, Hawai'i to gain a baseline understanding of the physical processes that influence localized bleaching dynamics. Surveys at HBNP in October 2015 and January 2016 revealed extensive bleaching (47%) and high levels of coral mortality (9.8%). Bleaching was highly variable among the four HBNP sectors and ranged from a low of ∼31% in the central bay at Channel (CH) to a high of 57% in the area most frequented by visitors (Keyhole; KH). The highest levels of bleaching occurred in two sectors with different circulation patterns: KH experienced comparatively low circulation velocity and a low temperature increase while Witches Brew (WB) and Backdoors (BD) experienced higher circulation velocity and higher temperature increase. Cumulative mortality was highest at WB (5.0%) and at BD (2.9%) although WB circulation velocity is significantly higher. HBNP is minimally impacted by local factors that can lead to decline such as high fishing pressure or sedimentation although human use is high. Despite the lack of these influences, high coral mortality occurred. Visitor impacts are strikingly different in the two sectors that experienced the highest mortality evidenced by the differences in coral cover associated with visitor

  16. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance; Zavodsky, Brad; Case, Jon; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  17. Seasonal ozone uptake by a warm-temperate mixed deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forest in western Japan estimated by the Penman–Monteith approach combined with a photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitao, Mitsutoshi; Komatsu, Masabumi; Hoshika, Yasutomo; Yazaki, Kenichi; Yoshimura, Kenichi; Fujii, Saori; Miyama, Takafumi; Kominami, Yuji

    2014-01-01

    Canopy-level stomatal conductance over a warm-temperate mixed deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forest in Japan was estimated by the Penman–Monteith approach, as compensated by a semi-empirical photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model, where photosynthesis, relative humidity, and CO 2 concentration were assumed to regulate stomatal conductance. This approach, using eddy covariance data and routine meteorological observations at a flux tower site, permits the continuous estimation of canopy-level O 3 uptake, even when the Penman–Monteith approach is unavailable (i.e. in case of direct evaporation from soil or wet leaves). Distortion was observed between the AOT40 exposure index and O 3 uptake through stomata, as AOT40 peaked in April, but with O 3 uptake occurring in July. Thus, leaf pre-maturation in the predominant deciduous broadleaf tree species (Quercus serrata) might suppress O 3 uptake in springtime, even when the highest O 3 concentrations were observed. -- Highlights: • We estimate canopy-level O 3 uptake in a warm-temperate mixed forest in Japan. • The Penman–Monteith approach is compensated by a photosynthesis-dependent model. • Stomatal conductance can be estimated, even in a partly-opened or wet canopy. • The estimated O 3 dose peaks in summer though O 3 exposure peaks in spring. -- Estimation of seasonal O 3 uptake over a mixed-temperate forest compensated by a photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model

  18. Microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols on warm clouds during the Amazon biomass burning season as observed by MODIS: impacts of water vapor and land cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Ten Hoeve

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol, cloud, water vapor, and temperature profile data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS are utilized to examine the impact of aerosols on clouds during the Amazonian biomass burning season in Rondônia, Brazil. It is found that increasing background column water vapor (CWV throughout this transition season between the Amazon dry and wet seasons likely exerts a strong effect on cloud properties. As a result, proper analysis of aerosol-cloud relationships requires that data be stratified by CWV to account better for the influence of background meteorological variation. Many previous studies of aerosol-cloud interactions over Amazonia have ignored the systematic changes to meteorological factors during the transition season, leading to possible misinterpretation of their results. Cloud fraction (CF is shown to increase or remain constant with aerosol optical depth (AOD, depending on the value of CWV, whereas the relationship between cloud optical depth (COD and AOD is quite different. COD increases with AOD until AOD ~ 0.3, which is assumed to be due to the first indirect (microphysical effect. At higher values of AOD, COD is found to decrease with increasing AOD, which may be due to: (1 the inhibition of cloud development by absorbing aerosols (radiative effect/semi-direct effect and/or (2 a possible retrieval artifact in which the measured reflectance in the visible is less than expected from a cloud top either from the darkening of clouds through the addition of carbonaceous biomass burning aerosols within or above clouds or subpixel dark surface contamination in the measured cloud reflectance. If (1 is a contributing mechanism, as we suspect, then an empirically-derived increasing function between cloud drop number and aerosol concentration, assumed in a majority of global climate models, is inaccurate since these models do not include treatment of aerosol absorption in and around clouds. The relationship between

  19. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  20. Effects of air pollution and seasonality on the respiratory symptoms and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) of outpatients with chronic respiratory disease in Ulaanbaatar: pilot study for the comparison of the cold and warm seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakao, Motoyuki; Yamauchi, Keiko; Ishihara, Yoko; Solongo, Bandi; Ichinnorov, Dashtseren

    2016-01-01

    This study was performed to investigate the effects of air pollution and seasonality on the respiratory symptoms and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) of outpatients with respiratory diseases in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Subjects were outpatients who visited the hospital with chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) or bronchial asthma (BA) in March. Their symptoms and HR-QoL were evaluated using a questionnaire including the SF-36v2 and COOP/WONCA charts in March, May and July. PM2.5 was sampled in March and July in Ulaanbaatar, and its composition was analyzed. Patients with COPD or BA showed higher prevalence of respiratory symptoms than the control subjects in each month. For HR-QoL, all subscales worsened in the patients than in the control group in March. Although the HR-QoL of the COPD and control groups were not significantly changed through the surveys, some subscales of the BA group showed remarkable improvement in July as compared to March. Daily means of PM2.5 in March were significantly higher than those in July. Carbon and ionic component concentrations, except for magnesium and calcium ions, were significantly higher in March than July. Mass concentrations of some metallic components were also significantly higher in March than July. The percentage of nitrate ion in PM2.5 was significantly higher in March when compared to that in July. These results suggested that the symptoms in the COPD and BA groups were caused by the disease, and the association with air pollution or seasonality remained unclear. However, the effects of air pollution and seasonality on the HR-QoL were significant in the patients with BA.

  1. Lagged effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in a subtropical megacity of China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Luo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many studies have found extreme temperature can increase the risk of mortality. However, it is not clear whether extreme diurnal temperature range (DTR is associated with daily disease-specific mortality, and how season might modify any association. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the acute effect of DTR on mortality and identify whether season is a modifier of the DTR effect. METHODS: The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM was applied to assess the non-linear and delayed effects of DTR on deaths (non-accidental mortality (NAD, cardiovascular disease (CVD, respiratory disease (RD and cerebrovascular disease (CBD in the full year, the cold season and the warm season. RESULTS: A non-linear relationship was consistently found between extreme DTR and mortality. Immediate effects of extreme low DTR on all types of mortality were stronger than those of extreme high DTR in the full year. The cumulative effects of extreme DTRs increased with the increment of lag days for all types of mortality in cold season, and they were greater for extreme high DTRs than those of extreme low DTRs. In hot season, the cumulative effects for extreme low DTRs increased with the increment of lag days, but for extreme high DTR they reached maxima at a lag of 13 days for all types of mortality except for CBD(at lag6 days, and then decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that extreme DTR is an independent risk factor of daily mortality, and season is a modifier of the association of DTR with daily mortality.

  2. Cool seasons are related to poor prognosis in patients with infective endocarditis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Su-Jung; Chao, Tze-Fan; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Hsu, Tsui-Lieh; Yu, Wen-Chung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2012-09-01

    Many cardiac diseases demonstrate seasonal variations in the incidence and mortality. This study was designed to investigate whether the mortality of infective endocarditis (IE) was higher in cool seasons and to evaluate the effects of cool climate for IE. We enrolled 100 IE patients with vegetations in our hospital. The temperatures of the IE episodes were defined as the monthly average temperatures of the admission days. The average temperatures in the cool (fall/winter) and warm seasons (spring/summer) were 19.2°C and 27.6°C, respectively. In addition, patients admitted with the diagnosis of IE were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and the in-hospital mortality rates in cool and warm seasons were compared to validate the findings derived from the data of our hospital. The mortality rate for IE was significantly higher in fall/winter than in spring/summer which presents consistently in the patient population of our hospital (32.7% versus 12.5%, p = 0.017) and from NHIRD (10.4% versus 4.6%, p = 0.019). IE episodes which occurred during cool seasons presented with a higher rate of heart failure (44.2% versus 22.9%, p = 0.025) and D-dimer level (5.5 ± 3.8 versus 2.4 ± 1.8 μg/ml, p = 0.017) at admission than that of warm seasons. These results may reflect the impact of temperatures during the pre-hospitalized period on the disease process. In the multivariate analysis, Staphylococcal infection, left ventricular hypertrophy, left ventricular systolic dysfunction and temperature were the independent predictors of mortalities in IE patients.

  3. Warm season precipitation signal in δ2 H values of wood lignin methoxyl groups from high elevation larch trees in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riechelmann, Dana F C; Greule, Markus; Siegwolf, Rolf T W; Anhäuser, Tobias; Esper, Jan; Keppler, Frank

    2017-10-15

    In this study, we tested stable hydrogen isotope ratios of wood lignin methoxyl groups (δ 2 H methoxyl values) as a palaeoclimate proxy in dendrochronology. This is a quite new method in the field of dendrochronology and the sample preparation is much simpler than the methods used before to measure δ 2 H values from wood. We measured δ 2 H methoxyl values in high elevation larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.) from Simplon Valley (southern Switzerland). Thirty-seven larch trees were sampled and five individuals analysed for their δ 2 H methoxyl values at annual (1971-2009) and pentadal resolution (1746-2009). The δ 2 H methoxyl values were measured as CH 3 I released upon treatment of the dried wood samples with hydroiodic acid. 10-90 μL from the head-space were injected into the gas chromatography/high-temperature conversion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/HTC-IRMS) system. Testing the climate response of the δ 2 H methoxyl values, the annually resolved series show a positive correlation of r = 0.60 with June/July precipitation. The pentadally resolved δ 2 H methoxyl series do not show any significant correlation to climate parameters. Increased precipitation during June and July, which are on average warm and relatively dry months, results in higher δ 2 H values of the xylem water and, therefore, higher δ 2 H values in the lignin methoxyl groups. Therefore, we suggest that δ 2 H methoxyl values of high elevation larch trees might serve as a summer precipitation proxy. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Seasonal and annual variation in planktonic foraminiferal fluxes including warm period related El Niño in the northwestern North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroyanagi, A.; Kawahata, H.; Nishi, H.; Honda, M. C.

    2007-12-01

    Planktonic foraminifera provide a record of the upper ocean environment through their species assemblage and individual tests. To investigate the relationship between foraminifera and oceanographic conditions and the impact of El Niño on foraminifera, we analyzed foraminiferal fluxes and relative abundances by using sediment trap samples collected biweekly at three sites in the northwestern North Pacific: Site 40N (39 °60'N, 165 °00'E), Site KNOT (43 °58'N, 155 °03'E), and Site 50N (50 °01'N, 165 °02'E) from 1998- 2001, a period that included an El Niño effect. Based on foraminiferal production and assemblage composition, we divided the sampling duration into several periods during which certain characteristic oceanographic properties were observed. These sampling periods were classified into five types (I-V) based upon four factors: 1) the predominant foraminiferal group, 2) total foraminiferal fluxes (TFFs), 3) organic matter (OM) fluxes, and 4) hydrographic conditions, which included sea surface temperature (SST) and thermal structure. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foraminifera were closely related to water mass properties in addition to SST. If species compositions were the same, then water mass properties were the most important factors affecting the seasonal variation of foraminiferal abundance in the northwestern North Pacific. Although one of the major controlling factors for foraminiferal fluxes is food availability, the controlling factors for each type (types I-V) are different because of specific oceanographic situations, such as phytoplankton blooms, which result in an excess food supply for foraminifera. At Site KNOT in 1998, SST was remarkably high because of El Niño, and high surface temperatures and weak winds would have lowered nutrient supply and intensified water column stratification, resulting in the relatively low fluxes of total foraminifera, N. pachyderma, and G. bulloides, and the high fluxes of N. dutertrei that

  5. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

    2017-01-01

    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  6. Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey: a case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Jessie A; Bielory, Leonard; Fagliano, Jerald A

    2014-07-01

    Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases among school-aged children in the United States. Environmental respiratory irritants exacerbate asthma among children. Understanding the impact of a variety of known and biologically plausible environmental irritants and triggers among children in New Jersey - ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), tree pollen, weed pollen, grass pollen and ragweed - would allow for informed public health interventions. Time-stratified case-crossover design was used to study the transient impact of ozone, PM2.5 and pollen on the acute onset of pediatric asthma. Daily emergency department visits were obtained for children aged 3-17 years with a primary diagnosis of asthma during the warm season (April through September), 2004-2007 (inclusive). Bi-directional control sampling was used to select two control periods for each case for a total of 65,562 inclusion days. Since the period of exposure prior to emergency department visit may be the most clinically relevant, lag exposures were investigated (same day (lag0), 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 as well as 3-day and 5-day moving averages). Multivariable conditional logistic regression controlling for holiday, school-in-session indicator, and 3-day moving average for temperature and relative humidity was used to examine the associations. Odds ratios are based on interquartile range (IQR) increases or 10 unit increases when IQR ranges were narrow. Single-pollutant models as well as multipollutant models were examined. Stratification on gender, race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status was explored. The associations with ozone and PM2.5 were strongest on the same day (lag0) of the emergency department visit (RR IQR=1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06) and (RR IQR=1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), respectively, with a decreasing lag effect. Tree and weed pollen were associated with pediatric ED visits; the largest magnitudes of association was with the 5-day average (RR IQR=1.23, 95% CI 1.21-1.25) and (RR 10=1.13, 95% CI 1

  7. Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kueppers, Lara M; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S; Mitton, Jeffry B

    2017-06-01

    Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower

  8. Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi-arid forests of Inner Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hongyan; Park Williams, A; Allen, Craig D; Guo, Dali; Wu, Xiuchen; Anenkhonov, Oleg A; Liang, Eryuan; Sandanov, Denis V; Yin, Yi; Qi, Zhaohuan; Badmaeva, Natalya K

    2013-08-01

    Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi-arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi-arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi-arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming-induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi-arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree-ring widths. These ring-width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi-arid sites than at semi-humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007-2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  10. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  11. Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

    2012-05-01

    Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

  12. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  13. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  14. Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

    2015-06-01

    Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Risk of Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Relation to Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Robert; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of temperature on cardiovascular-related (CVD) morbidity and mortality among New York City (NYC) residents. Introduction Extreme temperatures are consistently shown to have an effect on CVD-related mortality [1, 2]. A large multi-city study of mortality demonstrated a cold-day and hot-day weather effect on CVD-related deaths, with the larger impact occurring on the coldest days [3]. In contrast, the association between weather and CVD-related morbidity is less clear [4, 5]. The purpose of this study is to characterize the effect of temperature on CVD-related emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and mortality on a large, heterogeneous population. Additionally, we conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the impact of air pollutants, specifically fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), along with temperature, on CVD outcomes. Methods We analyzed daily weather conditions, ED visits classified as CVD-related based on chief complaint text, hospitalizations, and natural cause deaths that occurred in NYC between 2002 and 2006. ED visits were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. Inpatient admissions were obtained from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System, a data reporting system developed by New York State. Mortality data were obtained from the NYC Office of Vital Statistics. Data for PM2.5 and O3 were obtained from all available air quality monitors within the five boroughs of NYC. To estimate risk of CVD morbidity and mortality, we used generalized linear models using a Poisson distribution to calculate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A non-linear distributed lag was used to model mean temperature in order to allow for its effect on the same day and on subsequent days. Models were fit separately for cold season (October through March) and warm season (April through September) given season may modify the effect on CVD

  16. Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Michael V; Davis, Robert E; Hondula, David M

    2014-02-15

    Mortality rates increase immediately after periods of high air temperature. In the days and weeks after heat events, time series may exhibit mortality displacement-periods of lower than expected mortality. We examined all-cause mortality and meteorological data from 1980 to 2009 in the cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Phoenix, Arizona; Seattle, Washington; and St. Louis, Missouri. We modeled baseline mortality using a generalized additive model. Heat waves were defined as periods of 3 or more consecutive days in which the apparent temperature exceeded a variable percentile. For each heat wave, we calculated the sum of excess and deficit mortality. Mortality displacement, which is the ratio of grand sum deficit to grand sum excess mortality, decreased as a function of event strength in all cities. Displacement was close to 1.00 for the weakest events. At the highest temperatures, displacement varied from 0.35 (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.55) to 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.97). We found strong evidence of acclimatization across cities. Without consideration of displacement effects, the net impacts of heat-wave mortality are likely to be significant overestimations. A statistically significant positive relationship between the onset temperature of nondisplaced heat mortality and mean warm-season temperature (R(2) = 0.78, P < 0.01) suggests that heat mortality thresholds may be predictable across cities.

  17. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  18. Impact of covariate models on the assessment of the air pollution-mortality association in a single- and multipollutant context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacks, Jason D; Ito, Kazuhiko; Wilson, William E; Neas, Lucas M

    2012-10-01

    With the advent of multicity studies, uniform statistical approaches have been developed to examine air pollution-mortality associations across cities. To assess the sensitivity of the air pollution-mortality association to different model specifications in a single and multipollutant context, the authors applied various regression models developed in previous multicity time-series studies of air pollution and mortality to data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (May 1992-September 1995). Single-pollutant analyses used daily cardiovascular mortality, fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm; PM(2.5)), speciated PM(2.5), and gaseous pollutant data, while multipollutant analyses used source factors identified through principal component analysis. In single-pollutant analyses, risk estimates were relatively consistent across models for most PM(2.5) components and gaseous pollutants. However, risk estimates were inconsistent for ozone in all-year and warm-season analyses. Principal component analysis yielded factors with species associated with traffic, crustal material, residual oil, and coal. Risk estimates for these factors exhibited less sensitivity to alternative regression models compared with single-pollutant models. Factors associated with traffic and crustal material showed consistently positive associations in the warm season, while the coal combustion factor showed consistently positive associations in the cold season. Overall, mortality risk estimates examined using a source-oriented approach yielded more stable and precise risk estimates, compared with single-pollutant analyses.

  19. How do drought and warming influence survival and wood traits of Picea mariana saplings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balducci, Lorena; Deslauriers, Annie; Giovannelli, Alessio; Beaulieu, Marilène; Delzon, Sylvain; Rossi, Sergio; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K

    2015-01-01

    Warming and drought will occur with increased frequency and intensity at high latitudes in the future. How heat and water stress can influence tree mortality is incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate how carbon resources, stem hydraulics, and wood anatomy and density determine the ability of black spruce saplings to survive daytime or night-time warming (+ 6 °C in comparison with control) in combination with a drought period. Plant water relations, the dynamics of non-structural carbohydrates and starch, mortality rate, and wood anatomy and density of saplings were monitored. Warming, in conjunction with 25 d of water deficit, increased sapling mortality (10% and 20% in night-time and daytime warming, respectively) compared with the control conditions (0.8%). Drought substantially decreased gas exchange, and also pre-dawn and mid-day leaf water potential to values close to -3MPa which probably induced xylem embolism (xylem air entry point, P₁₂, being on average around -3MPa for this species). In addition, the recovery of gas exchange never reached the initial pre-stress levels, suggesting a possible loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity associated with cavitation. Consequently, mortality may be due to xylem hydraulic failure. Warmer temperatures limited the replenishment of starch reserves after their seasonal minimum. Lighter wood was formed during the drought period, reflecting a lower carbon allocation to cell wall formation, preventing the adaptation of the hydraulic system to drought. Saplings of black spruce experienced difficulty in adapting under climate change conditions, which might compromise their survival in the future. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology.

  20. Excess winter mortality and cold temperatures in a subtropical city, Guangzhou, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Quan Ou

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A significant increase in mortality was observed during cold winters in many temperate regions. However, there is a lack of evidence from tropical and subtropical regions, and the influence of ambient temperatures on seasonal variation of mortality was not well documented. METHODS: This study included 213,737 registered deaths from January 2003 to December 2011 in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in Southern China. Excess winter mortality was calculated by the excess percentage of monthly mortality in winters over that of non-winter months. A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was applied to analyze the association between monthly mean temperature and mortality, after controlling for other meteorological measures and air pollution. RESULTS: The mortality rate in the winter was 26% higher than the average rate in other seasons. On average, there were 1,848 excess winter deaths annually, with around half (52% from cardiovascular diseases and a quarter (24% from respiratory diseases. Excess winter mortality was higher in the elderly, females and those with low education level than the young, males and those with high education level, respectively. A much larger winter increase was observed in out-of-hospital mortality compared to in-hospital mortality (45% vs. 17%. We found a significant negative correlation of annual excess winter mortality with average winter temperature (rs=-0.738, P=0.037, but not with air pollution levels. A 1 °C decrease in monthly mean temperature was associated with an increase of 1.38% (95% CI:0.34%-2.40% and 0.88% (95% CI:0.11%-1.64% in monthly mortality at lags of 0-1 month, respectively. CONCLUSION: Similar to temperate regions, a subtropical city Guangzhou showed a clear seasonal pattern in mortality, with a sharper spike in winter. Our results highlight the role of cold temperature on the winter mortality even in warm climate. Precautionary measures should be strengthened to mitigate

  1. Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, A.; Ménard, R.

    2014-02-01

    Multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatiotemporal resolution for the warm season period (1 May to 31 October) for ground-level ozone and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5)) are presented. The OA used in this study combines model outputs from the Canadian air quality forecast suite with US and Canadian observations from various air quality surface monitoring networks. The analyses are based on an optimal interpolation (OI) with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (H-L) method. The error statistics are "tuned" using a χ2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a semi-empirical procedure that provides significantly better verification than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA setup using 90% of data observations to build the objective analyses and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM2.5 satellite surface-derived or ground-based measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 μg m-3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM2.5, respectively, and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 μg m-3 for PM2.5. This paper focuses on two applications: (1) presenting long-term averages of OA and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology; and (2) analyzing long-term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. The results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 were both following a general decreasing trend in North America, with the eastern

  2. Plaice egg mortality: can we determine survivorschip?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Fox, C.J.; Nash, R.D.M.; O'Brien, C.M.

    2003-01-01

    The daily mortality rate of cohorts of plaice eggs in the Irish Sea is estimated throughout the spawning season in 1995 and 2000, using general additive models of egg production. Daily mortality (z) was found to vary between 0.15 and 0.29. Mortality rates declined through the season in 1995 but not

  3. Seasonal Influenza: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Christina; Freedman, Marian

    2009-01-01

    Seasonal influenza is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. It also has major social and economic consequences in the form of high rates of absenteeism from school and work as well as significant treatment and hospitalization costs. In fact, annual influenza epidemics and the resulting deaths and lost days of productivity…

  4. Effect of season, late embryonic mortality and progesterone production on pregnancy rates in pluriparous buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) after artificial insemination with sexed semen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanile, Giuseppe; Vecchio, Domenico; Neglia, Gianluca; Bella, Antonino; Prandi, Alberto; Senatore, Elena M; Gasparrini, Bianca; Presicce, Giorgio A

    2013-03-01

    The use of sexed semen technology in buffaloes is nowadays becoming more and more accepted by farmers, to overcome the burden of unwanted male calves with related costs and to more efficiently improve production and genetic gain. The aim of this study was to verify the coupling of some variables on the efficiency of pregnancy outcome after deposition of sexed semen through AI. Pluriparous buffaloes from two different farms (N = 152) were screened, selected, and subjected to Ovsynch protocol for AI using nonsexed and sexed semen from four tested bulls. AI was performed in two distinct periods of the year: September to October and January to February. Neither farms nor bulls had a significant effect on pregnancy rates pooled from the two periods. The process for sexing sperm cells did not affect pregnancy rates at 28 days after AI, for nonsexed and sexed semen, respectively 44/73 (60.2%) and 50/79 (63.2%), P = 0.70, and at 45 days after AI, for nonsexed and sexed semen, respectively 33/73 (45.2%) and 33/79 (49.3%), P = 0.60. Pregnancy rate at 28 days after AI during the transitional period of January to February was higher when compared with September to October, respectively 47/67 (70.1%) versus 47/85 (55.2%), P = 0.06. When the same pregnant animals were checked at Day 45 after AI, the difference disappeared between the two periods, because of a higher embryonic mortality, respectively 32/67 (47.7%) versus 40/85 (47.0%), P = 0.93. Hematic progesterone concentration at Day 10 after AI did not distinguish animals pregnant at Day 28 that would or would not maintain pregnancy until Day 45 (P = 0.21). On the contrary, when blood samples were taken at Day 20 after AI, the difference in progesterone concentration between pregnant animals that would maintain their pregnancy until Day 45 was significant for both pooled (P = 0.00) and nonsexed (P = 0.00) and sexed semen (P = 0.09). A similar trend was reported when blood samples were taken at Day 25, being highly significant

  5. Associations between ambient air pollution and daily mortality among persons with congestive heart failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldberg, Mark S.; Burnett, Richard T.; Valois, M.-F.; Flegel, Kenneth; Bailar III, John C.; Brook, Jeffrey; Vincent Renaud; Radon, Katja

    2003-01-01

    We conducted a mortality time series study to investigate the association between daily mortality for congestive heart failure (CHF), and dail concentrations of particles and gaseous pollutants in the ambient air o Montreal, Quebec, during the period 1984-1993. In addition, using data fro the universal Quebec Health Insurance Plan, we identified individuals ≥6 years of age who, one year before death, had a diagnosis of CHF. Fixed-sit air pollution monitors in Montreal provided daily mean levels of pollutants We regressed the logarithm of daily counts of mortality on the daily mean levels of each pollutant, after accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, non-Poisson dispersion, weather variables, and other gaseous and particle pollutants. Using cause of deat information, we did not find any associations between daily mortality for CH and any air pollutants. The analyses of CHF defined from the medical record showed positive associations with coefficient of haze, the extinction coefficient, SO 2 , and NO 2 . For example, the mean percent increase in dail mortality for an increase in the coefficient of haze across the interquartile range was 4.32% (95% CI: 0.95-7.80%) and for NO 2 it was 4.08% (95% CI 0.59-7.68%). These effects were generally higher in the warm season

  6. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  7. Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Sun Corridor expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, M; Mahalov, A; Moustaoui, M

    2012-01-01

    Conversion of natural to urban land forms imparts influence on local and regional hydroclimate via modification of the surface energy and water balance, and consideration of such effects due to rapidly expanding megapolitan areas is necessary in light of the growing global share of urban inhabitants. Based on a suite of ensemble-based, multi-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we quantify seasonally varying hydroclimatic impacts of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan area in the US: Arizona’s Sun Corridor, centered upon the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Using a scenario-based urban expansion approach that accounts for the full range of Sun Corridor growth uncertainty through 2050, we show that built environment induced warming for the maximum development scenario is greatest during the summer season (regionally averaged warming over AZ exceeds 1 °C). Warming remains significant during the spring and fall seasons (regionally averaged warming over AZ approaches 0.9 °C during both seasons), and is least during the winter season (regionally averaged warming over AZ of 0.5 °C). Impacts from a minimum expansion scenario are reduced, with regionally averaged warming ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 °C for all seasons except winter, when no warming impacts are diagnosed. Integration of highly reflective cool roofs within the built environment, increasingly recognized as a cost-effective option intended to offset the warming influence of urban complexes, reduces urban-induced warming considerably. However, impacts on the hydrologic cycle are aggravated via enhanced evapotranspiration reduction, leading to a 4% total accumulated precipitation decrease relative to the non-adaptive maximum expansion scenario. Our results highlight potentially unintended consequences of this adaptation approach within rapidly expanding megapolitan areas, and emphasize the need for undeniably sustainable development paths that account for

  8. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  9. Coral Reefs: Beyond Mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Sheppard

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The scale of the collapse of coral reef communities in 1998 following a warming episode (Wilkinson, 2000 was unprecedented, and took many people by surprise. The Indian Ocean was the worst affected with a coral mortality over 75% in many areas such as the Chagos Archipelago (Sheppard, 1999, Seychelles (Spencer et al., 2000 and Maldives (McClanahan, 2000. Several other locations were affected at least as much, with mortality reaching 100% (to the nearest whole number; this is being compiled by various authors (e.g., CORDIO, in press. For example, in the Arabian Gulf, coral mortality is almost total across many large areas of shallow water (Sheppard, unpublished; D. George and D. John, personal communication. The mortality is patchy of course, depending on currents, location inside or outside lagoons, etc., but it is now possible to swim for over 200 m and see not one remaining living coral or soft coral on some previously rich reefs.

  10. Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

    2018-03-01

    As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

  11. Dynamic response of wind turbine towers in warm permafrost

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Benjamin Still; ZhaoHui Joey Yang; Simon Evans; FuJun Niu

    2014-01-01

    Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska. Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season, when the energy demand is the highest. Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development. Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design, construction, and operation of wind turbines. This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska. It presents a sys-tem for response monitoring and load assessment, and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014. The dynamic proper-ties are assessed based on the monitoring data, and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed. These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.

  12. Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

    2012-02-10

    Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

  13. Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Výberči, Dalibor; Labudová, Lívia; Eštóková, Milada; Faško, Pavol; Trizna, Milan

    2017-07-01

    In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days' sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996-2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.

  14. Infant Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... After hours (404) 639-2888 Contact Media Infant Mortality Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This ... differences in rates among population groups. About Infant Mortality Infant mortality is the death of an infant ...

  15. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

    2010-05-01

    Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

  16. Warm fresh whole blood and thoracic traumain iraq and afghanistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keneally, Ryan J; Parsons, Andrew M; Willett, Peter B

    2015-01-01

    Thoracic trauma occurred in 10% of the patients seen at US military treatment facilities in Iraq and Afghanistan and 52% of those patients were transfused. Among those transfused, 281 patients received warm fresh whole blood. A previous report documented improved survival with warm fresh whole blood in patients injured in combat without stratification by injury pattern. A later report described an increase in acute lung injuries after its administration. Survivorship and warm fresh whole blood have never been analyzed in a subpopulation at highest risk for lung injuries, such as patients with thoracic trauma. There may be a heterogeneous relationship between whole blood and survival based on likelihood of a concomitant pulmonary injury. In this report, the relationship between warm fresh whole blood and survivorship was analyzed among patients at highest risk for concomitant pulmonary injuries. Patients with thoracic trauma who received a transfusion were identified in the Joint Theater Trauma Registry. Gross mortality rates were compared between whole blood recipients and patients transfused with component therapy only. The association between each blood component and mortality was determined in a regression model. The overall mortality risk was compared between warm fresh whole blood recipients and non-recipients. Patients transfused with warm fresh whole blood in addition to component therapy had a higher mortality rate than patients transfused only separated blood components (21.3% vs. 12.8%, P warm fresh whole blood in addition to component therapy was not associated with increased mortality risk compared with the transfusion of component therapy only (OR 1.247 [95% CI 0.760-2.048], P = 0.382). Patients with combat related thoracic trauma transfused with warm fresh whole blood were not at increased risk for mortality compared to those who received component therapy alone when controlling for covariates.

  17. The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

  18. Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2017-01-01

    The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

  19. Effect modification of the association between temperature variability and daily cardiovascular mortality by air pollutants in three Chinese cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Kai; Li, Runkui; Wang, Zongshuang; Zhang, Ruiming; Xu, Qun

    2017-11-01

    There is limited evidence showing the mortality effects of temperature variability (TV) on cardiovascular diseases. The joint effects between TV and air pollutants are also less well-established. This study aims to assess the effect modification of TV-cardiovascular mortality by air pollutants in three Chinese cities (Beijing, Nanjing and Chengdu). Data of daily mortality, air pollutants and meteorological factors from 2008 to 2011 was collected from each city. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over exposure days. The city-specific effect estimates of TV on cardiovascular mortality were calculated using a quasi-Poisson regression model, adjusting for potential confounders (e.g., seasonality and temperature). An interaction term of TV and a three-level air pollutants stratum indicator was included in the models. Effect modifications by air pollutants were assessed by comparing the estimates of TV's effect between pollutant stratums and calculating the corresponding 95% confidential interval of the differences. Multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled estimates. The data showed that TV was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality, especially for longer TV exposure days (0-8 days, TV08). This association was still observed after adjusting for air pollutants on current day or the previous two days. Stronger estimates were observed in females, but no significant difference between males and females was detected, indicating the absence of evidence of effect modification by gender. Estimates of TV-cardiovascular mortality varied across two season periods (warm and cool season) and age groups, but the evidence of effect modification by age and seasons was absent. Regarding the effect modification of TV-cardiovascular mortality association by air pollutants, a significant effect modification was identified for PM 10, but not for NO 2 and SO 2 in the whole population for all TV

  20. The Effects of Fine Particulate Air Pollution on Daily Mortality: A Case-Crossover Study in a Subtropical City, Taipei, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shang-Shyue Tsai

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an association between PM2.5 levels and daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan, the largest metropolitan city with a subtropical climate. Daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data for Taipei were obtained for the period from 2006–2008. The relative risk of daily mortality was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for weather variables, day of the week, seasonality, and long-term time trends. For the single pollutant model, PM2.5 showed association with total mortality both on warm (>23 °C and cool days (<23 °C. There is no indication of an association between PM2.5 and risk of death due to respiratory diseases both on warm and cool days. PM2.5 had effects on the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases only on cool days. In the two-pollutant models, PM2.5 remained effects on the risk of mortality for all cause and cardiovascular disease after the inclusion of SO2 and O3 both on warm and cool days. This study provides evidence that short-term exposure to PM2.5 increased the risk of death for all cause and cardiovascular disease.

  1. Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

  2. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  3. Seasonal and cryopreservation impacts on semen quality in boars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal boar infertility occurs worldwide and contributes to economic loss to the pork industry. The current study evaluated cooled vs cryopreserved semen quality of 11 Duroc boars collected in June (cool season) and August 2014 (warm season). Semen was cooled to 16°C (cooled) or frozen over liquid...

  4. Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. However, extremely high mortality also can be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  5. Warm Mix Asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-17

    State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

  6. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  7. Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

  8. Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

    The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...

  9. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  10. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  11. Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

    2014-01-01

    Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

  12. Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

    2018-02-01

    To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

  13. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  14. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  15. Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

    2017-08-01

    We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  16. Occupational mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynge, Elsebeth

    2011-01-01

    -1975 revealed a considerable social class gradient in male mortality where university teachers and farmers had a 40% lower mortality and waiters and seamen had an about 100% higher mortality than the average for economically active men. The social class gradient was less steep for women. A similar pattern...

  17. Basin-Wide Amazon Forest Tree Mortality From a Large 2005 Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negron Juarez, R. I.; Chambers, J. Q.; Guimaraes, G.; Zeng, H.; Raupp, C.; Marra, D. M.; Ribeiro, G.; Saatchi, S. S.; Higuchi, N.

    2010-12-01

    Blowdowns are a recurrent characteristic of Amazon forests and are produced, among others, by squall lines. Squall lines are aligned clusters (typical length of 1000 km, width of 200 km) of deep convective cells that produce heavy rainfall during the dry season and significant rainfall during the wet season. These squall lines (accompanied by intense downbursts from convective cells) have been associated with large blowdowns characterized by uprooted, snapped trees, and trees being dragged down by other falling trees. Most squall lines in Amazonia form along the northeastern coast of South America as sea breeze-induced instability lines and propagate inside the continent. They occur frequently (~4 times per month), and can reach the central and even extreme western parts of Amazonia. Squall lines can also be generated inside the Amazon and propagate toward the equator. In January 2005 a squall line propagated from south to north across the entire Amazon basin producing widespread forest tree mortality and contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Over the Manaus region (3.4 x104 km2), disturbed forest patches generated by the squall produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. The elevated mortality observed in the Central Amazon in 2005 is unlikely to be related to the 2005 Amazon drought since drought did not affect Central or Eastern Amazonia. Assuming a similar rate of forest mortality across the basin, the squall line could have potentially produced tree mortality estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. This vulnerability is likely to increase in a warming climate with models projecting an increase in storm intensity.

  18. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  19. Submesoscale processes promote seasonal restratification in the Subantarctic Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du Plessis, M

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, the mechanism driving the seasonal restratification of the Southern Ocean mixed layer (ML) is thought to be the onset of springtime warming. Recent developments in numerical modeling and North Atlantic observations have shown...

  20. Ocean acidification exerts negative effects during warming conditions in a developing Antarctic fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Erin E; Bjelde, Brittany E; Miller, Nathan A; Todgham, Anne E

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic CO2 is rapidly causing oceans to become warmer and more acidic, challenging marine ectotherms to respond to simultaneous changes in their environment. While recent work has highlighted that marine fishes, particularly during early development, can be vulnerable to ocean acidification, we lack an understanding of how life-history strategies, ecosystems and concurrent ocean warming interplay with interspecific susceptibility. To address the effects of multiple ocean changes on cold-adapted, slowly developing fishes, we investigated the interactive effects of elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and temperature on the embryonic physiology of an Antarctic dragonfish (Gymnodraco acuticeps), with protracted embryogenesis (∼10 months). Using an integrative, experimental approach, our research examined the impacts of near-future warming [-1 (ambient) and 2°C (+3°C)] and ocean acidification [420 (ambient), 650 (moderate) and 1000 μatm pCO2 (high)] on survival, development and metabolic processes over the course of 3 weeks in early development. In the presence of increased pCO2 alone, embryonic mortality did not increase, with greatest overall survival at the highest pCO2. Furthermore, embryos were significantly more likely to be at a later developmental stage at high pCO2 by 3 weeks relative to ambient pCO2. However, in combined warming and ocean acidification scenarios, dragonfish embryos experienced a dose-dependent, synergistic decrease in survival and developed more slowly. We also found significant interactions between temperature, pCO2 and time in aerobic enzyme activity (citrate synthase). Increased temperature alone increased whole-organism metabolic rate (O2 consumption) and developmental rate and slightly decreased osmolality at the cost of increased mortality. Our findings suggest that developing dragonfish are more sensitive to ocean warming and may experience negative physiological effects of ocean acidification only in

  1. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  2. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  3. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  4. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  5. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  6. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

    2011-01-01

    The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

  7. 0-6613 : evaluate binder and mixture aging for warm mix asphalt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Warm mix asphalt (WMA) technologies employ reduced : mixing and placement temperatures, thereby allowing : reduced fuel consumption, enhanced compaction, : increased haul distances, and an extended paving : season. However, there have been issues of ...

  8. Performance Measures of Warm Asphalt Mixtures for Safe and Reliable Freight Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is an emerging technology that can allow asphalt to flow at a lower temperature for mixing, placing and compaction. The advantages of WMA include reduced fuel consumption, less carbon dioxide emission, longer paving season, lon...

  9. How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Zięba

    Full Text Available Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime.

  10. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  11. Fire Safety During the Holiday Season | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter is here, and that means holiday decorations, a warm hearth, and (hopefully) plenty of homecooked meals. Unfortunately, winter also brings numerous fire hazards both at work and around the house. This year, as you shop, decorate, and celebrate, keep these safety tips in mind to ensure a safe and enjoyable holiday season.

  12. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

    2014-01-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

  13. Warm pre-stressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedner, G.

    1983-01-01

    Literature survey and critical evaluation of the phenomenon of warm pre-stressing (WPS) is presented. It is found that the cause of it is not clear and a calculated control is missing. The effect of irradiation is unknown, and the influence of WPS on the behaviour of reactor vessels is discussed. (G.B.)

  14. Being Warm-Hearted

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李函; 任汉鼎

    2017-01-01

    Good morning,ladies and gentlemen.It’s my honor to address[向……致辞] you.My English name is Isabella.I’m a high school student of 17.I have some good personality traits[特点],including being warm-hearted.So here comes my topic:Being

  15. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  16. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  17. Paralyzed warming world

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 81-86 ISSN 1876-8156 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : global warming * climate Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://ojs.ubvu.vu.nl/alf/article/view/134/250

  18. New Claviceps species from warm-season grasses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pažoutová, Sylvie; Odvody, G.; Frederickson, D.E.; Chudíčková, Milada; Olšovská, Jana; Kolařík, Miroslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 1 (2011), s. 145-165 ISSN 1560-2745 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/97/0611 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : Ascomycota * Taxonomy * Phylogeny Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 4.769, year: 2011

  19. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shongwe, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

  20. Warm season performance of horizontal subsurface flow constructed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2013-06-14

    Jun 14, 2013 ... degradation and population risk of diseases particularly ..... 5G: gravel substrate with a HRT of 5 days; 5S: sand substrate with a HRT of 5 days; 10G: gravel substrate with a .... American Public Health Association; American.

  1. FVS and global Warming: A prospectus for future development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Dennis E. Ferguson; Marcus Warwell

    2008-01-01

    Climate change-global warming and changes in precipitation-will cause changes in tree growth rates, mortality rates, the distribution of tree species, competition, and species interactions. An implicit assumption in FVS is that site quality will remain the same as it was during the time period observations used to calibrate the component models were made and that the...

  2. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  3. Effects of air pollution and seasons on health-related quality of life of Mongolian adults living in Ulaanbaatar: cross-sectional studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoyuki Nakao

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, is known as severely air-polluted city in the world due to increased coal consumption in the cold season. The health effects of air pollution in Mongolia such as mortality, morbidity and symptoms have been previously reported. However, the concept of health-related quality of life (HR-QoL, which refers to the individual’s perception of well-being, should also be included as an adverse health outcome of air pollution. Methods Surveys on the Mongolian people living in Ulaanbaatar were performed in the warm and cold seasons. Self-completed questionnaires on the subjects’ HR-QoL, data from health checkups and pulmonary function tests by respiratory specialists were collected for Mongolian adults aged 40–79 years (n = 666. Ambient PM2.5 and PM10 were concurrently sampled and the components were analyzed to estimate the source of air pollution. Results In logistic regression analyses, respiratory symptoms and smoke-rich fuels were associated with reduced HR-QoL (> 50th percentile vs. ≤ 50th percentile. PM 2.5 levels were much higher in the cold season (median 86.4 μg/m3 (IQR: 58.7–121.0 than in the warm season (12.2 μg/m3 (8.9–21.2. The receptor model revealed that the high PM2.5 concentration in the cold season could be attributed to solid fuel combustion. The difference in HR-QoL between subjects with and without ventilatory impairment was assessed after the stratification of the subjects by season and household fuel type. There were no significant differences in HR-QoL between subjects with and without ventilatory impairment regardless of household fuel type in the warm season. In contrast, subjects with ventilatory impairment who used smoke-rich fuel in the cold season had a significantly lower HR-QoL. Conclusions Our study showed that air pollution in Ulaanbaatar worsened in the cold season and was estimated to be contributed by solid fuel combustion. Various aspects of HR-QoL in

  4. Effects of air pollution and seasons on health-related quality of life of Mongolian adults living in Ulaanbaatar: cross-sectional studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakao, Motoyuki; Yamauchi, Keiko; Ishihara, Yoko; Omori, Hisamitsu; Ichinnorov, Dashtseren; Solongo, Bandi

    2017-06-23

    Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, is known as severely air-polluted city in the world due to increased coal consumption in the cold season. The health effects of air pollution in Mongolia such as mortality, morbidity and symptoms have been previously reported. However, the concept of health-related quality of life (HR-QoL), which refers to the individual's perception of well-being, should also be included as an adverse health outcome of air pollution. Surveys on the Mongolian people living in Ulaanbaatar were performed in the warm and cold seasons. Self-completed questionnaires on the subjects' HR-QoL, data from health checkups and pulmonary function tests by respiratory specialists were collected for Mongolian adults aged 40-79 years (n = 666). Ambient PM2.5 and PM10 were concurrently sampled and the components were analyzed to estimate the source of air pollution. In logistic regression analyses, respiratory symptoms and smoke-rich fuels were associated with reduced HR-QoL (> 50th percentile vs. ≤ 50th percentile). PM 2.5 levels were much higher in the cold season (median 86.4 μg/m 3 (IQR: 58.7-121.0)) than in the warm season (12.2 μg/m 3 (8.9-21.2). The receptor model revealed that the high PM2.5 concentration in the cold season could be attributed to solid fuel combustion. The difference in HR-QoL between subjects with and without ventilatory impairment was assessed after the stratification of the subjects by season and household fuel type. There were no significant differences in HR-QoL between subjects with and without ventilatory impairment regardless of household fuel type in the warm season. In contrast, subjects with ventilatory impairment who used smoke-rich fuel in the cold season had a significantly lower HR-QoL. Our study showed that air pollution in Ulaanbaatar worsened in the cold season and was estimated to be contributed by solid fuel combustion. Various aspects of HR-QoL in subjects with ventilatory impairment using smoke-rich fuels deteriorated

  5. Phytoplankton response to winter warming modified by large-bodied zooplankton: an experimental microcosm study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu He

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available While several field investigations have demonstrated significant effects of cool season (winter or spring warming on phytoplankton development, the role played by large-bodied zooplankton grazers for the responses of phytoplankton to winter warming is ambiguous. We conducted an outdoor experiment to compare the effect of winter warming (heating by 3°C in combination with presence and absence of Daphnia grazing (D. similis on phytoplankton standing crops and community structure under eutrophic conditions. When Daphnia were absent, warming was associated with significant increases in phytoplankton biomass and cyanobacterial dominance. In contrast, when Daphnia were present, warming effects on phytoplankton dynamics were offset by warming-enhanced grazing, resulting in no significant change in biomass or taxonomic dominance. These results emphasize that large-bodied zooplankton like Daphnia spp. may play an important role in modulating the interactions between climate warming and phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient rich lake ecosystems.

  6. Multicity study of air pollution and mortality in Latin America (the ESCALA study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romieu, Isabelle; Gouveia, Nelson; Cifuentes, Luis A; de Leon, Antonio Ponce; Junger, Washington; Vera, Jeanette; Strappa, Valentina; Hurtado-Díaz, Magali; Miranda-Soberanis, Victor; Rojas-Bracho, Leonora; Carbajal-Arroyo, Luz; Tzintzun-Cervantes, Guadalupe

    2012-10-01

    concentration of O3. Most of the results for PM10 were positive and statistically significant, showing an increased risk of mortality with increased ambient concentrations. Results for O3 also showed a statistically significant increase in mortality in the cities with available data. With the distributed lag model, DLM 0-3, PM10 ambient concentrations were associated with an increased risk of mortality in all cities except Concepci6n and Temuco. In Mexico City and Santiago the RPC and 95% CIs were 1.02% (0.87 to 1.17) and 0.48% (0.35 to 0.61), respectively. PM10 was also significantly associated with increased mortality from cardiopulmonary, respiratory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular-stroke, and chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) in most cities. The few nonsignificant effects generally were observed in the smallest cities (Concepción, Temuco, and Toluca). The percentage increases in mortality associated with ambient O3 concentrations were smaller than for those associated with PM10. All-natural-cause mortality was significantly related to O3 in Mexico City, Monterrey, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Increased mortality risks for some specific causes were also observed in these cities and in Santiago. In the analyses stratified by season, different patterns in mortality and O3 were observed for cold and warm seasons. Risk estimates for the warm season were larger and significant for several causes of death in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Risk estimates for the cold season were larger and significant for some causes of death in Mexico City, Monterrey, and Toluca. In an analysis stratified by SES, the all-natural-cause mortality risk in Mexico City was larger for people with a medium SES; however we observed that the risk of mortality related to respiratory causes was larger among people with a low SES, while the risk of mortality related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular-stroke causes was larger among people with medium or high SES. In São Paulo, the all

  7. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  8. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  9. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  10. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  11. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  12. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  13. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  14. Responses of Contrasting Tree Functional Types to Air Warming and Drought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabet Martínez-Sancho

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change-induced rise of air temperatures and the increase of extreme climatic events, such as droughts, will largely affect plant growth and hydraulics, leading to mortality events all over the globe. In this study, we investigated the growth and hydraulic responses of seedlings of contrasting functional types. Pinus sylvestris, Quercus spp. and Castanea sativa seedlings were grown in a common garden experiment under four treatments: control, air warming, drought and their combination during two consecutive growing periods. Height and diameter increments, stomatal conductance and stem water potentials were measured during both growing seasons. Additionally, hydraulic parameters such as xylem-specific native and maximum hydraulic conductivities, and native percentage of loss of conductivity were measured at the end of the entire experiment. Our results clearly pointed to different adaptive strategies of the studied species. Scots pine displayed a relatively isohydric behavior with a strict stomata control prohibiting native embolism whereas sweet chestnut and oak as relatively anisohydric species displayed an increased loss of native conductivity as a results of low water potentials. Seasonal timing of shoot and diameter growth also differed among functional types influencing drought impacts. Additionally, the possibility of embolism reversal seemed to be limited under the study conditions.

  15. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  16. The impact of heat waves on mortality in seven major cities in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Ji-Young; Lee, Jong-Tae; Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the health impacts of heat waves is important, especially given anticipated increases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves due to climate change. We examined mortality from heat waves in seven major Korean cities for 2000 through 2007 and investigated effect modification by individual characteristics and heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperature at or above the 98th percentile for the warm season in each city. We compared mortality during heat-wave days and non-heat-wave days using city-specific generalized linear models. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate overall effects within and across all cities. In addition, we estimated effects of heat wave characteristics and effects according to cause of death and examined effect modification by individual characteristics for Seoul. Overall, total mortality increased 4.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): -6.1%, 15.4%] during heat waves compared with non-heat-wave days, with an 8.4% increase (95% CI: 0.1%, 17.3%) estimated for Seoul. Estimated mortality was higher for heat waves that were more intense, longer, or earlier in summer, although effects were not statistically significant. Estimated risks were higher for women versus men, older versus younger residents, those with no education versus some education, and deaths that occurred out of hospitals in Seoul, although differences among strata of individual characteristics were not statistically significant. Our findings support evidence of mortality impacts from heat waves and have implications for efforts to reduce the public health burden of heat waves.

  17. Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

    2013-01-01

    The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

  18. Differences on the effect of heat waves on mortality by sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yihan; Dadvand, Payam; Barrera-Gómez, Jose; Sartini, Claudio; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Borrell, Carme; Medina-Ramón, Mercè; Sunyer, Jordi; Basagaña, Xavier

    2013-06-01

    Mortality increases during heat waves have been reported worldwide. The magnitude of these increases can vary within regions according to sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics. The objectives of this study were to explore this variation and its determinants, and to identify the most heat-vulnerable areas by mapping heat vulnerability. We conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis using daily mortality in the Barcelona metropolitan area during the warm seasons of 1999-2006. Temperature data on the date of death were assigned to each individual, which were assigned to their census tract of residence. Eight census tract-level variables on socioeconomic or built environment characteristics were obtained from the census. Residence surrounding greenness was obtained from satellite data. The relative risk (RR) of mortality after three consecutive hot days (defined as those exceeding the 95th percentile of maximum temperature) was calculated via conditional logistic regression. Effect modification was examined by including interaction terms. Analyses were based on 52 806 deaths. The effect of three consecutive hot days was a 30% increase in all-cause mortality (RR=1.30, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.38). Heterogeneity of this effect was observed across census tracts. The effect of heat on mortality was higher in the census tracts with a large percentage of old buildings (RR=1.21, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.46), manual workers (RR=1.25, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.64) and residents perceiving little surrounding greenness (RR=1.29, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.65). After three consecutive hot days, mortality doubled in the most heat-vulnerable census tracts. Sociodemographic and urban landscape characteristics are associated to mortality risk during heat waves and are useful to build heat vulnerability maps.

  19. Temperature-mortality relationship in dairy cattle in France based on an iso-hygro-thermal partition of the territory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morignat, Eric; Gay, Emilie; Vinard, Jean-Luc; Calavas, Didier; Hénaux, Viviane

    2017-11-01

    The issue of global warming and more specifically its health impact on populations is increasingly concerning. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of temperature on dairy cattle mortality in France during the warm season (April-August). We therefore devised and implemented a spatial partitioning method to divide France into areas in which weather conditions were homogeneous, combining a multiple factor analysis with a clustering method using both weather and spatial data. We then used time-series regressions (2001-2008) to model the relationship between temperature humidity index (an index representing the temperature corrected by the relative humidity) and dairy cattle mortality within these areas. We found a significant effect of heat on dairy cattle mortality, but also an effect of cooler temperatures (to a lesser extent in some areas), which leads to a U-shaped relationship in the studied areas. Our partitioning approach based on weather criteria, associated with classic clustering methods, may contribute to better estimating temperature effects, a critical issue for animal health and welfare. Beyond the interest of its use in animal health, this approach can also be of interest in several situations in the frame of human health.

  20. Comparing and contrasting Holocene and Eemian warm periods with greenhouse-gas-induced warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.C.; Kutzbach, J.

    1990-01-01

    Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses to both types of forcing, in terms of land/ocean and latitudinal averages, are also compared. The zonal average and annual (or seasonal) average radiation fluxes associated with the different-from-present orbital conditions that existed for those interglacials are compared to the radiation flux associated with CO 2 -induced warming. There are some similarities but also significant differences in the two types of radiation flux perturbations, and there are both similarities and differences in the simulated climatic responses

  1. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  2. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  3. Exploring the association between heat and mortality in Switzerland between 1995 and 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Martina S; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Schindler, Christian; Röösli, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Designing effective public health strategies to prevent adverse health effect of hot weather is crucial in the context of global warming. In Switzerland, the 2003 heat have caused an estimated 7% increase in all-cause mortality. As a consequence, the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health developed an information campaign to raise public awareness on heat threats. For a better understanding on how hot weather affects daily mortality in Switzerland, we assessed the effect of heat on daily mortality in eight Swiss cities and population subgroups from 1995 to 2013 using different temperature metrics (daily mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) and maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax)), and aimed to evaluate variations of the heat effect after 2003 (1995-2002 versus 2004-2013). We applied conditional quasi-Poisson regression models with non-linear distributed lag functions to estimate temperature-mortality associations over all cities (1995-2013) and separately for two time periods (1995-2002, 2004-2013). Relative risks (RR) of daily mortality were estimated for increases in temperature from the median to the 98th percentile of the warm season temperature distribution. Over the whole time period, significant temperature-mortality relationships were found for all temperature indicators (RR (95% confidence interval): Tappmax: 1.12 (1.05; 1.18); Tmax: 1.15 (1.08-1.22); Tmean: 1.16 (1.09-1.23); Tmin 1.23 (1.15-1.32)). Mortality risks were higher at the beginning of the summer, especially for Tmin. In the more recent time period, we observed a non-significant reduction in the effect of high temperatures on mortality, with the age group > 74 years remaining the population at highest risk. High temperatures continue to be a considerable risk factor for human health in Switzerland after 2003. More effective public health measures targeting the elderly should be promoted with increased attention to the first heat events in summer and considering both high day-time and

  4. Cancer mortality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, H.

    1986-01-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) and its predecessor, the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC), have conducted mortality surveillance on a fixed sample, the Life Span Study (LSS), of 82,000 atomic bomb survivors and 27,000 nonexposed residents of Hiroshima and Nagasaki since 1950. The results of the most recent analysis of the LSS are summarized

  5. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  6. Seasonal evolution of faecal egg output by gastrointestinal worms in goats on communal farms in eastern Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.F. Kumba

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available As a more detailed continuation of a previous study, faecal samples for worm egg counts were collected per rectum from ten marked adult animals in selected flocks of goats, in each of six villages evenly spread out in the communal farming district of Okakarara in eastern Namibia. The study was conducted on a monthly basis from August 1999 to July 2000. Average faecal worm egg counts (FECs were highest during the warm-wet season, much lower during the cold-dry months and moderate during the hot-dry season. Least square means of FECs were 2 140, 430 and 653 per gram of faeces for the three seasons, respectively. Seasonal variation in egg counts was significant (P < 0.0001. Gastrointestinal strongyles, and to a lesser extent Strongyloides species, were the predominant parasite groups identified in goats. Kidding rates peaked in the cold-dry season and mortality rates in the hot-dry season. Results of this study suggest that gastrointestinal parasitism may be a problem that accentuates the effect of poor nutrition on small ruminants during the season of food shortages in the east of Namibia and that the use of FECs per se to assess the severity of gastrointestinal parasitic infection in goats followed by chemoprophylactic strategic and / or tactical treatment, may not be the best approach to addressing the worm problem under resource-poor conditions. The use of the FAMACHA(c system that identifies severely affected animals for treatment is technically a better option for communal farmers.

  7. Seasonality of suicide deaths in Serbia, 1990-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penev Goran

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the period from 1990 to 2012, there were 32,855 suicides registered in Serbia, i.e. an average of 1428 deaths per year (18.9 per 100.000 inhabitants. The suicides were the most frequent in the early 1990s, less frequent during the 2000s, and least frequent in the last three years of the observed period (2010-2012 - an average of 1237 suicides per year. Objective: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the seasonal variations of suicides in Serbia in the period of 1990-2012, their changes, as well as the accordance with findings from other countries. Method: In the paper are used "classical" statistical methods of evaluating cyclical variations (χ2-test, Edwards' test as well as some frequently used newer methods (e.g. the peak-low ratio. It also introduces a new indicator of the intensity of monthly variations in suicides (the magnitude of trimester variations of /12/ moving consecutive months index - the MtMV index. Seasonality of suicides is also observed by sex. Results: The results of the research of seasonality confirm that certain cyclical variations in mortality due to suicide are also present in Serbia. Observed by season, suicides are most frequent in spring and summer and less in winter. The cyclical nature was also clearly confirmed by month. Suicides are most frequent in "warm" months (April-August and far less frequent in "cold" months (December-February. By month, suicides are most frequent in May, while the maximal average number of suicides per day was calculated for June (21 % higher than the average for 1990-2012. December is singled out as the month with the lowest number as well as lowest daily average of suicides (25 % lower than the average. Conclusion: The cyclical nature of suicides is clearly notable during the entire observed period and no significant fluctuations or decrease in the intensity of the variation were observed. Regardless of the method of analysis, the resulting conclusions are identical

  8. Is cold or warm blood cardioplegia superior for myocardial protection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abah, Udo; Roberts, Patrick Garfjeld; Ishaq, Muhammad; De Silva, Ravi

    2012-01-01

    A best evidence topic in cardiac surgery was written according to a structured protocol. The question addressed was whether the use of warm or cold blood cardioplegia has superior myocardial protection. More than 192 papers were found using the reported search, of which 20 represented the best evidence to answer the clinical question. The authors, journal, date, country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes and results of these papers are tabulated. A good breadth of high-level evidence addressing this clinical dilemma is available, including a recent meta-analysis and multiple large randomized clinical trials. Yet despite this level of evidence, no clear significant clinical benefit has been demonstrated by warm or cold blood cardioplegia. This suggests that neither method is significantly superior and that both provide similar efficacy of myocardial protection. The meta-analysis, including 41 randomized control trials (5879 patients in total), concluded that although a lower cardiac enzyme release and improved postoperative cardiac index was demonstrated in the warm cardioplegia group, this benefit was not reflected in clinical outcomes, which were similar in both groups. This theme of benefit in biochemical markers, physiological metrics and non-fatal postoperative events in the warm cardioplegia group ran throughout the literature, in particular the ‘Warm Heart investigators’ who conducted a randomized trial of 1732 patients, demonstrated a reduction in postoperative low output syndrome (6.1 versus 9.3%, P = 0.01) in the warm cardioplegia group, but no significant drop in 30-day all-cause mortality (1.4 versus 2.5%, P = 0.12). However, their later follow-up indicates non-fatal postoperative events predict reduced late survival, independent of cardioplegia. A minority of studies suggested a benefit of cold cardioplegia over warm in particular patient subgroups: One group conducted a retrospective study of 520 patients who

  9. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  10. Mortality Implications of Mortality Plateaus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, T. I.; Vaupel, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    This article aims to describe in a unified framework all plateau-generating random effects models in terms of (i) plausible distributions for the hazard (baseline mortality) and the random effect (unobserved heterogeneity, frailty) as well as (ii) the impact of frailty on the baseline hazard...

  11. Structure of Warm Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaberg, S.; Uhrenholt, H.

    2009-01-01

    We study the structure of nuclei in the energy region between the ground state and the neutron separation energy, here called warm nuclei. The onset of chaos in the nucleus as excitation energy is increased is briefly reviewed. Chaos implies fluctuations of energies and wave functions qualitatively the same for all chaotic nuclei. On the other hand, large structure effects are seen, e.g. in the level-density function at same excitation energies. A microscopic model for the level density is reviewed and we discuss effects on structure of the total level-density function, parity enhancement, and the spin distribution function. Comparisons to data are performed at the neutron separation energy for all observed nuclei, and structure of the level-density function for a few measured cases. The role of structure effects in the level-density function for fission dynamics is exemplified.

  12. Interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Norman; Palma, Guillermo; Zambrano, David; Avelino, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ m α ρ e β form, where ρ m and ρ e are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w m and w e of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used

  13. Summer heat and mortality in New York City: how hot is too hot?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Kristina B; Ito, Kazuhiko; Matte, Thomas D

    2010-01-01

    To assess the public health risk of heat waves and to set criteria for alerts for -excessive heat, various meteorologic metrics and models are used in different jurisdictions, generally without systematic comparisons of alternatives. We report such an analysis for New York City that compared maximum heat index with alternative metrics in models to predict daily variation in warm-season natural-cause mortality from 1997 through 2006. We used Poisson time-series generalized linear models and generalized additive models to estimate weather-mortality relationships using various metrics, lag and averaging times, and functional forms and compared model fit. A model that included cubic functions of maximum heat index on the same and each of the previous 3 days provided the best fit, better than models using maximum, minimum, or average temperature, or spatial synoptic classification (SSC) of weather type. We found that goodness of fit and maximum heat index-mortality functions were similar using parametric and nonparametric models. Same-day maximum heat index was linearly related to mortality risk across its range. The slopes at lags of 1, 2, and 3 days were flat across moderate values but increased sharply between maximum heat index of 95 degrees F and 100 degrees F (35-38 degrees C). SSC or other meteorologic variables added to the maximum heat index model moderately improved goodness of fit, with slightly attenuated maximum heat index-mortality functions. In New York City, maximum heat index performed similarly to alternative and more complex metrics in estimating mortality risk during hot weather. The linear relationship supports issuing heat alerts in New York City when the heat index is forecast to exceed approximately 95-100 degrees F. Periodic city-specific analyses using recent data are recommended to evaluate public health risks from extreme heat.

  14. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  15. Specificity Responses of Grasshoppers in Temperate Grasslands to Diel Asymmetric Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tingjuan; Hao, Shuguang; Sun, Osbert Jianxin; Kang, Le

    2012-01-01

    Background Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation. Conclusions/Significance Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and

  16. Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

  17. Seasonality, mobility, and livability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-31

    Signature project 4a, Seasonality, Mobility, and Livability investigated the effects of weather, season, built environment, community amenities, attitudes, and demographics on mobility and quality of life (QOL). A four season panel survey exami...

  18. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  19. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  20. Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schario, Tracy A.

    A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

  1. A Case-Only Study of Vulnerability to Heat Wave-Related Mortality in New York City (2000-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrigano, Jaime; Ito, Kazuhiko; Johnson, Sarah; Kinney, Patrick L; Matte, Thomas

    2015-07-01

    As a result of climate change, the frequency of extreme temperature events is expected to increase, and such events are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Vulnerability patterns, and corresponding adaptation strategies, are most usefully conceptualized at a local level. We used a case-only analysis to examine subject and neighborhood characteristics that modified the association between heat waves and mortality. All deaths of New York City residents from 2000 through 2011 were included in this analysis. Meteorological data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. Modifying characteristics were obtained from the death record and geographic data sets. A total of 234,042 adult deaths occurred during the warm season of our study period. Compared with other warm-season days, deaths during heat waves were more likely to occur in black (non-Hispanic) individuals than other race/ethnicities [odds ratio (OR) = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], more likely to occur at home than in institutions and hospital settings (OR = 1.11; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.16), and more likely among those living in census tracts that received greater public assistance (OR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.09). Finally, deaths during heat waves were more likely among residents in areas of the city with higher relative daytime summer surface temperature and less likely among residents living in areas with more green space. Mortality during heat waves varies widely within a city. Understanding which individuals and neighborhoods are most vulnerable can help guide local preparedness efforts.

  2. [Effects of Warming and Straw Application on Soil Respiration and Enzyme Activity in a Winter Wheat Cropland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shu-tao; Sang, Lin; Zhang, Xu; Hu, Zheng-hua

    2016-02-15

    In order to investigate the effects of warming and straw application on soil respiration and enzyme activity, a field experiment was performed from November 2014 to May 2015. Four treatments, which were control (CK), warming, straw application, and warming and straw application, were arranged in field. Seasonal variability in soil respiration, soil temperature and soil moisture for different treatments were measured. Urease, invertase, and catalase activities for different treatments were measured at the elongation, booting, and anthesis stages. The results showed that soil respiration in different treatments had similar seasonal variation patterns. Seasonal mean soil respiration rates for the CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments were 1.46, 1.96, 1.92, and 2.45 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively. ANOVA indicated that both warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration compared to the control treatment. The relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature in different treatments fitted with the exponential regression function. The exponential regression functions explained 34.3%, 28.1%, 24.6%, and 32.0% variations of soil respiration for CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments, respectively. Warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration and urease activity fitted with a linear regression function, with the P value of 0.061. The relationship between soil respiration and invertase (P = 0.013), and between soil respiration and catalase activity (P = 0.002) fitted well with linear regression functions.

  3. American lay conceptions of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kempton, W.

    1990-01-01

    Ethnographic interviews were conducted with Americans from all walks of life in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it. Most informants had heard of the greenhouse effect, but they held fundamental misconceptions that were shared across individuals. Many of these misconceptions derive from the process of fitting a new concept, global warming, into four preexisting categories: stratospheric ozone depletion, plant photosynthesis, tropospheric pollution, and personally-experienced seasonal and geographic temperature variation. Informants readily accepted that human activities could change climate and weather patterns. Indeed, most reported they had already observed changes in weather patterns, some citing space shots or atomic bomb testing as causes. Few informants connected the greenhouse effect to energy or fuel consumption, although the connection was easily understood when explained by the interviewers

  4. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  5. Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Habeeb, Dana; DeLucia, Anthony; Trail, Marcus; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead

    2014-01-01

    Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

  6. Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Stone

    Full Text Available Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1 climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2 local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

  7. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  8. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  9. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  10. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  11. Responses of Ecosystem CO2 Fluxes to Short-Term Experimental Warming and Nitrogen Enrichment in an Alpine Meadow, Northern Tibet Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Peili; Jiang, Jing; Song, Minghua; Xiong, Dingpeng; Ma, Weiling; Fu, Gang; Zhang, Xianzhou; Shen, Zhenxi

    2013-01-01

    Over the past decades, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced pronounced warming, yet the extent to which warming will affect alpine ecosystems depends on how warming interacts with other influential global change factors, such as nitrogen (N) deposition. A long-term warming and N manipulation experiment was established to investigate the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on alpine meadow. Open-top chambers were used to simulate warming. N addition, warming, N addition × warming, and a control were set up. In OTCs, daytime air and soil temperature were warmed by 2.0°C and 1.6°C above ambient conditions, but soil moisture was decreased by 4.95 m3 m−3. N addition enhanced ecosystem respiration (Reco); nevertheless, warming significantly decreased Reco. The decline of Reco resulting from warming was cancelled out by N addition in late growing season. Our results suggested that N addition enhanced Reco by increasing soil N availability and plant production, whereas warming decreased Reco through lowering soil moisture, soil N supply potential, and suppression of plant activity. Furthermore, season-specific responses of Reco indicated that warming and N deposition caused by future global change may have complicated influence on carbon cycles in alpine ecosystems. PMID:24459432

  12. Projected changes in prevailing winds for transatlantic migratory birds under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Fink, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    A number of terrestrial bird species that breed in North America cross the Atlantic Ocean during autumn migration when travelling to their non-breeding grounds in the Caribbean or South America. When conducting oceanic crossings, migratory birds tend to associate with mild or supportive winds, whose speed and direction may change under global warming. The implications of these changes for transoceanic migratory bird populations have not been addressed. We used occurrence information from eBird (1950-2015) to estimate the geographical location of population centres at a daily temporal resolution across the annual cycle for 10 transatlantic migratory bird species. We used this information to estimate the location and timing of autumn migration within the transatlantic flyway. We estimated how prevailing winds are projected to change within the transatlantic flyway during this time using daily wind speed anomalies (1996-2005 and 2091-2100) from 29 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models implemented under CMIP5. Autumn transatlantic migrants have the potential to encounter strong westerly crosswinds early in their transatlantic journey at intermediate and especially high migration altitudes, strong headwinds at low and intermediate migration altitudes within the Caribbean that increase in strength as the season progresses, and weak tailwinds at intermediate and high migration altitudes east of the Caribbean. The CMIP5 simulations suggest that, during this century, the likelihood of autumn transatlantic migrants encountering strong westerly crosswinds will diminish. As global warming progresses, the need for species to compensate or drift under the influence of strong westerly crosswinds during the initial phase of their autumn transatlantic journey may be diminished. Existing strategies that promote headwind avoidance and tailwind assistance will likely remain valid. Thus, climate change may reduce time and energy requirements and the chance of mortality or

  13. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-01-01

    Background Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises...

  14. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  15. Variations in suicide method and in suicide occurrence by season and day of the week in Russia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Northwestern Russia: a retrospective population-based mortality study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumarokov, Yury A; Brenn, Tormod; Kudryavtsev, Alexander V; Nilssen, Odd

    2015-09-23

    Suicide is an important world health issue, especially in territories inhabited by indigenous people. This investigated differences in suicide rates, suicide methods, and suicide occurrence by month and day of the week among the indigenous and non-indigenous populations of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and to compare the findings from the NAO with national Russian statistics. In this retrospective population-based mortality study we investigated all suicides that occurred in the NAO in 2002-2012 (N = 252). Suicide method and the month and day of the week suicide occurred was taken from autopsy reports and disaggregated by ethnic group (indigenous and non-indigenous) and sex. Data from the NAO were then compared with national data from the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat). Hanging was the most common suicide method in the NAO in both indigenous and non-indigenous populations. The proportion of suicides by hanging among males was lower in the NAO than in national data (69.3 vs 86.2 %), but the inverse was true for females (86.5 vs 74.9 %). Suicide by firearm and by cutting was significantly higher among the indigenous population in the NAO when compared with national data. Peaks in suicide occurrence were observed in May and September in the NAO, whereas national data showed only one peak in May. Suicide occurrence in the indigenous population of the NAO was highest in April, while the non-indigenous population showed peaks in May and September. Suicide occurrence in the NAO was highest on Fridays; in national data this occurrence was highest on Mondays. We showed different relative frequencies of suicide by hanging, cutting, and firearm, as well as different suicide occurrence by month and day of the week in the NAO compared with Russia as a whole. These results can be used to plan suicide prevention activities in the Russian Arctic.

  16. Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, T.; Myneni, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

  17. Species-specific vulnerability of Arctic copepods to oil contamination and global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    Arctic ecosystems are predicted to have more severe effects from global warming as during the last decades the temperatures have increased in this region at a rate of 2-4 times higher than the global average. In addition, oil exploitation and shipping activities in the Arctic are predicted...... to increase under global warming as the result of the retreat of sea ice, posing the risk of oil contamination. It is poorly known how cold adapted copepods in the Arctic deal with the combined effects of global warming and oil exposure. To address this, we exposed females of two copepods species Calanus...... of temperatures. Notably, exposure to high pyrene resulted in ca. 70% of mortality in C. finmarchicus, the species with North Atlantic Origin, that was two times higher than the mortality observed for C. glacialis, the true Arctic species. These results suggest that extreme temperature under global warming...

  18. Fewer bacteria in warm water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagh, Lene

    1999-01-01

    There has been many suggestions to how the ideal warm water system should be. Particularly whether warm water containers or heat exchangers in larger houses are the best solutions in order to maintain a water quality with low levels of bacteria. In an investigation made by Statens Byggeforskningsinstitutt (Denmark) regarding ''Bacterial growth in warm water installations with heat exchangers'' there were used several heat exchangers made by Gjelsted and Lund of three of which had HWAT heating cables. The bacterial content was low from these exchangers compared to exchangers with circulation. The article presents promising results from a study where the method was investigated over a longer period in two new larger warm water systems. Some energy conservation aspects are discussed

  19. Warm mix asphalt : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The performance of pavements constructed using warm mix asphalt (WMA) technology were : compared to the performance of conventional hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavements placed on the : same project. Measurements of friction resistance, rutting/wear, ride ...

  20. Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1988-09-01

    Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

  1. Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R.

    2012-04-01

    Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

  2. Global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    The problems of pollution, global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation, and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy, pollution and global warming crisis. (author)

  3. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  4. A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, H.M.; Sampath, R.; Riha, S.J.; Wilks, D.S.; Rossiter, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The potential economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming are examined at the farm level. Three models of the relevant climatic, agronomic, and economic processes are developed and linked to address climate change impacts and agricultural adaptability. Several climate warming severity. The results indicate that grain farmers in southern Minnesota can effectively adapt to a gradually changing climate (warmer and either wetter or drier) by adopting later maturing cultivars, changing crop mix, and altering the timing of field operations to take advantage of a longer growing season resulting from climate warming

  5. Aerosol Indirect Effect on Warm Clouds over Eastern China Using Combined CALIOP and MODIS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Wang, Fu; Huang, Jingfeng; Li, Xiaowen

    2015-04-01

    Aerosol, one of key components of the climate system, is highly variable, both temporally and spatially. It often exerts great influences on the cloud-precipitation chain processes by serving as CCN/IN, altering cloud microphysics and its life cycle. Yet, the aerosol indirect effect on clouds remains largely unknown, because the initial changes in clouds due to aerosols may be enhanced or dampened by such feedback processes as modified cloud dynamics, or evaporation of the smaller droplets due to the competition for water vapor. In this study, we attempted to quantify the aerosol effects on warm cloud over eastern China, based on near-simultaneous retrievals from MODIS/AQUA, CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CLOUDSAT during the period 2006 to 2010. The seasonality of aerosol from ground-based PM10 is quite different from that estimated from MODIS AOD. This result is corroborated by lower level profile of aerosol occurrence frequency from CALIOP, indicating the significant role CALIOP could play in aerosol-cloud interaction. The combined use of CALIOP and CPR facilitate the process to exactly determine the (vertical) position of warm cloud relative to aerosol, out of six scenarios in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status, which shows as follows: AO (Aerosol only), CO (Cloud only), SASC (Single aerosol-single cloud), SADC (single aerosol-double cloud), DASC (double aerosol-single cloud), and others. Results shows that about 54% of all the cases belong to mixed status, among all the collocated aerosol-cloud cases. Under mixed condition, a boomerang shape is observed, i.e., reduced cloud droplet radius (CDR) is associated with increasing aerosol at moderate aerosol pollution (AODcases. We categorize dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets to figure out how the boomerang shape varies with season. For moderate aerosol loading (AODMixed" cases is greater during cold season (denoted by a large slope), as compared with that during warm

  6. The Short-Term Effects of Visibility and Haze on Mortality in a Coastal City of China: A Time-Series Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua Gu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Few studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of visibility and haze, which may be regarded as proxy indicators of ambient air pollution. We used a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM combined with quasi-Poisson regression to estimate the relationship between visibility, haze and mortality in Ningbo, a coastal city of China. We found that the mortality risk of visibility was statistically significant only on the current day, while the risk of haze and PM10 peaked on the second day and could last for three days. When the visibility was less than 10 km, each 1 km decrease of visibility at lag 0 day was associated with a 0.78% (95% CI: 0.22–1.36% increase in total mortality and a 1.61% (95% CI: 0.39–2.85% increase in respiratory mortality. The excess risk of haze at lag 0–2 days on total mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 7.76% (95% CI: 3.29–12.42%, 7.73% (95% CI: 0.12–15.92% and 17.77% (95% CI: 7.64–28.86%, respectively. Greater effects of air pollution were observed during the cold season than in the warm season, and the elderly were at higher risk compared to youths. The effects of visibility and haze were attenuated by single pollutants. These findings suggest that visibility and haze could be used as surrogates of air quality where pollutant data are scarce, and strengthen the evidence to develop policy to control air pollution and protect vulnerable populations.

  7. Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2018-03-01

    As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

  8. The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

    2018-03-01

    Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

  9. The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

    2018-01-01

    Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

  10. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  11. Survival during the Breeding Season: Nest Stage, Parental Sex, and Season Advancement Affect Reed Warbler Survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaja Wierucka

    Full Text Available Avian annual survival has received much attention, yet little is known about seasonal patterns in survival, especially of migratory passerines. In order to evaluate survival rates and timing of mortality within the breeding season of adult reed warblers (Acrocephalus scirpaceus, mark-recapture data were collected in southwest Poland, between 2006 and 2012. A total of 612 individuals (304 females and 308 males were monitored throughout the entire breeding season, and their capture-recapture histories were used to model survival rates. Males showed higher survival during the breeding season (0.985, 95% CI: 0.941-0.996 than females (0.869, 95% CI: 0.727-0.937. Survival rates of females declined with the progression of the breeding season (from May to August, while males showed constant survival during this period. We also found a clear pattern within the female (but not male nesting cycle: survival was significantly lower during the laying, incubation, and nestling periods (0.934, 95% CI: 0.898-0.958, when birds spent much time on the nest, compared to the nest building and fledgling periods (1.000, 95% CI: 1.00-1.000, when we did not record any female mortality. These data (coupled with some direct evidence, like bird corpses or blood remains found next to/on the nest may suggest that the main cause of adult mortality was on-nest predation. The calculated survival rates for both sexes during the breeding season were high compared to annual rates reported for this species, suggesting that a majority of mortality occurs at other times of the year, during migration or wintering. These results have implications for understanding survival variation within the reproductive period as well as general trends of avian mortality.

  12. The Great Warming Brian Fagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, B. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

  13. Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

    2011-01-01

    This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

  14. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  15. Incremento, ingresso e mortalidade em uma floresta de contato ombrófila aberta/estacional em Marcelândia, Estado do Mato Grosso Increment, entry and mortality in a open/seasonal ombrophilous contact forest into Marcelândia, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chirle Colpini

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Esta pesquisa teve por objetivo estudar o incremento em diâmetro, área basal e volume, o ingresso e a mortalidade de uma floresta ombrófila aberta/estacional no município de Marcelândia. Os dados são provenientes de 69 parcelas permanentes instaladas e medidas em 2001 e remedidas em 2003 e 2007. Foram avaliados o número de indivíduos e os incrementos em diâmetro, área basal e volume para o período de 2001 a 2007. O ingresso foi determinado como sendo as árvores que atingiram ou ultrapassaram o diâmetro de 17 cm. A mortalidade foi calculada pela soma de todas as árvores com diâmetro igual ou superior a 17 cm encontradas mortas em cada medição. No período considerado de seis anos, teve como resultado para o incremento em diâmetro, área basal e volume respectivamente, 0,34 cm; 0,22 m².ha-1 e 2,11 m³.ha-1. Os valores médios para as taxas de mortalidade e ingresso foram, respectivamente, 0,78% e 0,30%.This research aimed to study the increase in diameter, basal area, volume, the entry, and the mortality of an open/seasonal ombrophilous forest in the city of Marcelândia. Data were collected in 69 permanent plots established in 2001 and remeasured in 2003 and 2007. The number of individuals and the increases in diameter, basal area, and volume for the period 2001 to 2007 were evaluated. The entry was determined by the trees that have reached or exceeded a diameter of 17 cm. Mortality was calculated as the sum of all found dead trees in each measurement with a diameter equal or more than 17 cm. In the considered period of six years, the results to the increase in diameter, basal area, and volume were respectively, 0.34 cm, 0.22 m².ha-1, and 2.11 m³.ha-1. The average values for the mortality rates and entry respectively were 0.78% and 0.30%.

  16. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact

  17. Warm measurements of CBA superconducting magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelmann, R.; Herrera, J.; Kahn, S.; Kirk, H.; Willen, E.; Yamin, P.

    1983-01-01

    We present results on magnetic field measurements of CBA dipole magnets in the warm (normal conductor) and cryogenic (superconducting) states. We apply two methods for the warm measurements, a dc and ac method. We find a good correlation between warm and cryogenic measurements which lends itself to a reliable diagnosis of magnet field errors using warm measurements early in the magnet assembly process. We further find good agreement between the two warm measurement methods, both done at low currents

  18. Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Martusa, Riki

    2009-01-01

    This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

  19. Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Close ‹ Back to Healthy Living Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies Sneezing, runny nose, nasal congestion. Symptoms of the ... How do I know if I have seasonal allergies? According to Dr. Georgeson, the best way to ...

  20. A novel visualisation tool for climate services: a case study of temperature extremes and human mortality in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, R.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J.; Herrmann, F. R.; Jupp, T. E.; Stephenson, D.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    Users of climate information often require probabilistic information on which to base their decisions. However, communicating information contained within a probabilistic forecast presents a challenge. In this paper we demonstrate a novel visualisation technique to display ternary probabilistic forecasts on a map in order to inform decision making. In this method, ternary probabilistic forecasts, which assign probabilities to a set of three outcomes (e.g. low, medium, and high risk), are considered as a point in a triangle of barycentric coordinates. This allows a unique colour to be assigned to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. Colour saturation increases with information gain relative to the reference forecast (i.e. the long term average). This provides additional information to decision makers compared with conventional methods used in seasonal climate forecasting, where one colour is used to represent one forecast category on a forecast map (e.g. red = ';dry'). We use the tool to present climate-related mortality projections across Europe. Temperature and humidity are related to human mortality via location-specific transfer functions, calculated using historical data. Daily mortality data at the NUTS2 level for 16 countries in Europe were obtain from 1998-2005. Transfer functions were calculated for 54 aggregations in Europe, defined using criteria related to population and climatological similarities. Aggregations are restricted to fall within political boundaries to avoid problems related to varying adaptation policies between countries. A statistical model is fit to cold and warm tails to estimate future mortality using forecast temperatures, in a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Using predefined categories of temperature-related mortality risk, we present maps of probabilistic projections for human mortality at seasonal to decadal time scales. We demonstrate the information gained from using this technique compared to more

  1. The politics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moss, N.

    1991-01-01

    The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

  2. Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever) KidsHealth / For Parents / Seasonal Allergies (Hay ... español Alergia estacional (fiebre del heno) About Seasonal Allergies "Achoo!" It's your son's third sneezing fit of ...

  3. Seasonal Variation in Epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, Osvaldo

    2013-01-01

    Seasonality analyses are important in medical research. If the incidence of a disease shows a seasonal pattern, then an environmental factor must be considered in its etiology. We discuss a method for the simultaneous analysis of seasonal variation in multiple groups. The nuts and bolts are explained using simple trigonometry, an elementary…

  4. [The innovation of warm disease theory in the Ming Dynasty before Wen yi lun On Pestilence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-bin

    2008-10-01

    Some doctors of the Ming dynasty raised subversive doubts against the traditional viewpoints of "exogenous cold disease is warm-heat" before the emergence of Wen yi lun (On Pestilence), holding that warm-heat disease "is contracted in different seasons instead of being transformed from cold to warm and/or heat". The conception of the separation of warm-heat disease and exogenous cold disease had changed from obscure to clear. As the idea became clear, the recognition on the new affection of warm, heat, summer-heat, pestilent pathogen was formed, and the idea that the pathogens of summer-heat and warm entered the human body through the mouth and nostrils was put forward. The six-channel syndrome differentiation of warm disease and the five sweat-resolving methods in pestilence raised by the doctors of this period are the aspects of the differential diagnosis of syndrome and treatment in warm diseases, and deserve to be paid attention to.

  5. Non-linear Feedbacks Between Forest Mortality and Climate Change: Implications for Snow Cover, Water Resources, and Ecosystem Recovery in Western North America (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, P. D.; Harpold, A. A.; Biederman, J. A.; Gochis, D. J.; Litvak, M. E.; Ewers, B. E.; Broxton, P. D.; Reed, D. E.

    2013-12-01

    Unprecedented levels of tree mortality from insect infestation and wildfire are dramatically altering forest structure and composition in Western North America. Warming temperatures and increased drought stress have been implicated as major factors in the increasing spatial extent and frequency of these forest disturbances, but it is unclear how these changes in forest structure will interact with ongoing climate change to affect snowmelt water resources either for society or for ecosystem recovery following mortality. Because surface discharge, groundwater recharge, and ecosystem productivity all depend on seasonal snowmelt, a critical knowledge gap exists not only in predicting discharge, but in quantifying spatial and temporal variability in the partitioning of snowfall into abiotic vapor loss, plant available water, recharge, and streamflow within the complex mosaic of forest disturbance and topography that characterizes western mountain catchments. This presentation will address this knowledge gap by synthesizing recent work on snowpack dynamics and ecosystem productivity from seasonally snow-covered forests along a climate gradient from Arizona to Wyoming; including undisturbed sites, recently burned forests, and areas of extensive insect-induced forest mortality. Both before-after and control-impacted studies of forest disturbance on snow accumulation and ablation suggest that the spatial scale of snow distribution increases following disturbance, but net snow water input in a warming climate will increase only in topographically sheltered areas. While forest disturbance changes spatial scale of snowpack partitioning, the amount and especially the timing of snow cover accumulation and ablation are strongly related to interannual variability in ecosystem productivity with both earlier snowmelt and later snow accumulation associated with decreased carbon uptake. Empirical analyses and modeling are being developed to identify landscapes most sensitive to

  6. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  7. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  8. Adaptation to seasonality and the winter freeze

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill Christine Preston

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Flowering plants initially diversified during the Mesozoic era at least 140 million years ago in regions of the world where temperate seasonal environments were not encountered. Since then several cooling events resulted in the contraction of warm and wet environments and the establishment of novel temperate zones in both hemispheres. In response, less than half of modern angiosperm families have members that evolved specific adaptations to cold seasonal climates, including cold acclimation, freezing tolerance, endodormancy, and vernalization responsiveness. Despite compelling evidence for multiple independent origins, the level of genetic constraint on the evolution of adaptations to seasonal cold is not well understood. However, the recent increase in molecular genetic studies examining the response of model and crop species to seasonal cold offers new insight into the evolutionary lability of these traits. This insight has major implications for our understanding of complex trait evolution, and the potential role of local adaptation in response to past and future climate change. In this review, we discuss the biochemical, morphological, and developmental basis of adaptations to seasonal cold, and synthesize recent literature on the genetic basis of these traits in a phylogenomic context. We find evidence for multiple genetic links between distinct physiological responses to cold, possibly reinforcing the coordinated expression of these traits. Furthermore, repeated recruitment of the same or similar ancestral pathways suggests that land plants might be somewhat pre-adapted to dealing with temperature stress, perhaps making inducible cold traits relatively easy to evolve.

  9. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

    2017-09-01

    Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

  10. Effects of different re-warm up activities in football players' performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Abade

    Full Text Available Warm up routines are commonly used to optimize football performance and prevent injuries. Yet, official pre-match protocols may require players to passively rest for approximately 10 to 15 minutes between the warm up and the beginning of the match. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the effect of different re-warm up activities on the physical performance of football players. Twenty-Two Portuguese elite under-19 football players participated in the study conducted during the competitive season. Different re-warm up protocols were performed 6 minutes after the same standardized warm up in 4 consecutive days in a crossover controlled approach: without, eccentric, plyometric and repeated changes of direction. Vertical jump and Sprint performances were tested immediately after warm up and 12 minutes after warm up. Results showed that repeated changes of direction and plyometrics presented beneficial effects to jump and sprint. Different practical implications may be taken from the eccentric protocol since a vertical jump impairment was observed, suggesting a possibly harmful effect. The absence of re-warm up activities may be detrimental to players' physical performance. However, the inclusion of re-warm up prior to match is a complex issue, since the manipulation of volume, intensity and recovery may positively or negatively affect the subsequent performance. In fact, this exploratory study shows that eccentric exercise may be harmful for physical performance when performed prior a football match. However, plyometric and repeated changes of direction exercises seem to be simple, quick and efficient activities to attenuate losses in vertical jump and sprint capacity after warm up. Coaches should aim to develop individual optimal exercise modes in order to optimize physical performance after re warm activities.

  11. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. F. Lewin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by  ∼  1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be  ∼  2–3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming

  12. Excess mortality in winter in Finnish intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinikainen, M; Uusaro, A; Ruokonen, E; Niskanen, M

    2006-07-01

    In the general population, mortality from acute myocardial infarctions, strokes and respiratory causes is increased in winter. The winter climate in Finland is harsh. The aim of this study was to find out whether there are seasonal variations in mortality rates in Finnish intensive care units (ICUs). We analysed data on 31,040 patients treated in 18 Finnish ICUs. We measured severity of illness with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) scores and intensity of care with therapeutic intervention scoring system (TISS) scores. We assessed mortality rates in different months and seasons and used logistic regression analysis to test the independent effect of various seasons on hospital mortality. We defined 'winter' as the period from December to February, inclusive. The crude hospital mortality rate was 17.9% in winter and 16.4% in non-winter, P = 0.003. Even after adjustment for case mix, winter season was an independent risk factor for increased hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.22, P = 0.005). In particular, the risk of respiratory failure was increased in winter. Crude hospital mortality was increased during the main holiday season in July. However, the severity of illness-adjusted risk of death was not higher in July than in other months. An increase in the mean daily TISS score was an independent predictor of increased hospital mortality. Severity of illness-adjusted hospital mortality for Finnish ICU patients is higher in winter than in other seasons.

  13. Manatee mortality in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignucci-Giannoni, A. A.; Montoya-Ospina, R. A.; Jimenez-Marrero, N. M.; Rodriguez-Lopez, M.; Williams, E.H.; Bonde, R.K.

    2000-01-01

    The most pressing problem in the effective management of the West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) in Puerto Rico is mortality due to human activities. We assessed 90 cases of manatee strandings in Puerto Rico based on historical data and a coordinated carcass salvage effort from 1990 through 1995. We determined patterns of mortality, including type of event, condition of carcasses, spatial and temporal distribution, gender, size/age class, and the cause of death. The spatial distribution of stranding events was not uniform, with the north, northeast, and south coasts having the highest numbers. Six clusters representing the highest incidence included the areas of Fajardo and Ceiba, Bahia de Jobos, Toa Baja, Guayanilla, Cabo Rojo, and Rio Grande to Luquillo. The number of reported cases has increased at an average rate of 9.6%/yr since 1990. The seasonality of stranding events showed a bimodal pattern, from February through April and in August and September. Most identified causes of death were due to human interaction, especially captures and watercraft collisions. Natural causes usually involved dependent calves. From 1990 through 1995, most deaths were attributed to watercraft collisions. A reduction in anthropogenic mortality of this endangered species can be accomplished only through education and a proactive management and conservation plan that includes law enforcement, mortality assessment, scientific research, rescue and rehabilitation, and inter- and intraagency cooperation.

  14. Autumn photosynthetic decline and growth cessation in seedlings of white spruce are decoupled under warming and photoperiod manipulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinziano, Joseph R; Way, Danielle A

    2017-08-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase the seasonal duration of photosynthetic carbon fixation and tree growth in high-latitude forests. However, photoperiod, a crucial cue for seasonality, will remain constant, which may constrain tree responses to warming. We investigated the effects of temperature and photoperiod on weekly changes in photosynthetic capacity, leaf biochemistry and growth in seedlings of a boreal evergreen conifer, white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss]. Warming delayed autumn declines in photosynthetic capacity, extending the period when seedlings had high carbon uptake. While photoperiod was correlated with photosynthetic capacity, short photoperiods did not constrain the maintenance of high photosynthetic capacity under warming. Rubisco concentration dynamics were affected by temperature but not photoperiod, while leaf pigment concentrations were unaffected by treatments. Respiration rates at 25 °C were stimulated by photoperiod, although respiration at the growth temperatures was increased in warming treatments. Seedling growth was stimulated by increased photoperiod and suppressed by warming. We demonstrate that temperature is a stronger control on the seasonal timing of photosynthetic down-regulation than is photoperiod. Thus, while warming can stimulate carbon uptake in boreal conifers, the extra carbon may be directed towards respiration rather than biomass, potentially limiting carbon sequestration under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Linking carbon and water limitations to drought-induced mortality of Pinus flexilis seedlings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Keith; Germino, Matthew J.; Kueppers, Lara M.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Mitton, Jeffry

    2015-01-01

    Survival of tree seedlings at high elevations has been shown to be limited by thermal constraints on carbon balance, but it is unknown if carbon relations also limit seedling survival at lower elevations, where water relations may be more important. We measured and modeled carbon fluxes and water relations in first-year Pinus flexilis seedlings in garden plots just beyond the warm edge of their natural range, and compared these with dry-mass gain and survival across two summers. We hypothesized that mortality in these seedlings would be associated with declines in water relations, more so than with carbon-balance limitations. Rather than gradual declines in survivorship across growing seasons, we observed sharp, large-scale mortality episodes that occurred once volumetric soil-moisture content dropped below 10%. By this point, seedling water potentials had decreased below −5 MPa, seedling hydraulic conductivity had decreased by 90% and seedling hydraulic resistance had increased by >900%. Additionally, non-structural carbohydrates accumulated in aboveground tissues at the end of both summers, suggesting impairments in phloem-transport from needles to roots. This resulted in low carbohydrate concentrations in roots, which likely impaired root growth and water uptake at the time of critically low soil moisture. While photosynthesis and respiration on a leaf area basis remained high until critical hydraulic thresholds were exceeded, modeled seedling gross primary productivity declined steadily throughout the summers. At the time of mortality, modeled productivity was insufficient to support seedling biomass-gain rates, metabolism and secondary costs. Thus the large-scale mortality events that we observed near the end of each summer were most directly linked with acute, episodic declines in plant hydraulic function that were linked with important changes in whole-seedling carbon relations.

  16. Linking carbon and water relations to drought-induced mortality in Pinus flexilis seedlings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhardt, Keith; Germino, Matthew J; Kueppers, Lara M; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Mitton, Jeffry

    2015-07-01

    Survival of tree seedlings at high elevations has been shown to be limited by thermal constraints on carbon balance, but it is unknown if carbon relations also limit seedling survival at lower elevations, where water relations may be more important. We measured and modeled carbon fluxes and water relations in first-year Pinus flexilis seedlings in garden plots just beyond the warm edge of their natural range, and compared these with dry-mass gain and survival across two summers. We hypothesized that mortality in these seedlings would be associated with declines in water relations, more so than with carbon-balance limitations. Rather than gradual declines in survivorship across growing seasons, we observed sharp, large-scale mortality episodes that occurred once volumetric soil-moisture content dropped below 10%. By this point, seedling water potentials had decreased below -5 MPa, seedling hydraulic conductivity had decreased by 90% and seedling hydraulic resistance had increased by >900%. Additionally, non-structural carbohydrates accumulated in aboveground tissues at the end of both summers, suggesting impairments in phloem-transport from needles to roots. This resulted in low carbohydrate concentrations in roots, which likely impaired root growth and water uptake at the time of critically low soil moisture. While photosynthesis and respiration on a leaf area basis remained high until critical hydraulic thresholds were exceeded, modeled seedling gross primary productivity declined steadily throughout the summers. At the time of mortality, modeled productivity was insufficient to support seedling biomass-gain rates, metabolism and secondary costs. Thus the large-scale mortality events that we observed near the end of each summer were most directly linked with acute, episodic declines in plant hydraulic function that were linked with important changes in whole-seedling carbon relations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved

  17. Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Griffin, Daniel; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Meko, David M.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Seager, Richard; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Dean, Jeffrey S.; Cook, Edward R.; Gangodagamage, Chandana; Cai, Michael; McDowell, Nathan G.

    2012-01-01

    s the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000-2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

  18. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damm, Andrea; Greuell, Wouter; Landgren, Oskar; Prettenthaler, Franz

    2017-01-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons challenge the winter tourism industry. In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe's ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified. Using time series regression models, the relationship between

  19. Microclimate impacts of passive warming methods in Antarctica: implications for climate change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.; Huiskes, A.H.L.; Convey, P.; Sinclair, B.J.; Lebouvier, M.; van de Vijver, B.; Wall, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    Passive chambers are used to examine the impacts of summer warming in Antarctica but, so far, impacts occurring outside the growing season, or related to extreme temperatures, have not been reported, despite their potentially large biological significance. In this review, we synthesise and discuss

  20. Decline of coral reefs during late Paleocene to early Eocene global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Scheibner , C.; Speijer , R. P.

    2007-01-01

    International audience; Since the 1980s the frequency of warming events has intensified and simultaneously widespread coral bleaching, and enhanced coral mortality have been observed. Yet, it remains unpredictable how tropical coral reef communities will react to prolonged adverse conditions. Possibly, coral reef systems are sufficiently robust to withstand continued environmental pressures. But if coral mortality increases, what will platform communities of the future look like? The co-evolu...

  1. Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Rinnan, Asmund; Michelsen, Anders; Holopainen, Jarmo K; Rinnan, Riikka

    2010-07-01

    *Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. *We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra heath hosting a long-term warming and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) litter addition experiment. *The relatively low emissions of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were doubled in response to an air temperature increment of only 1.9-2.5 degrees C, while litter addition had a minor influence. BVOC emissions were seasonal, and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. *The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects.

  2. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  3. Range shifts and global warming: ecological responses of Empetrum nigrum L. to experimental warming at its northern (high Arctic) and southern (Atlantic) geographical range margin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buizer, Bert; Weijers, Stef; Van Bodegom, Peter M; Van Breda, Johan; De Korte, Maarten; Van Rijckevorsel, Jaap; Rozema, Jelte; Alsos, Inger Greve; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken

    2012-01-01

    Global change is expected to lead to range shifts of plant species. The ecological mechanisms underpinning these shifts are currently not well understood. Here, we compared ecological responses possibly underlying southern range contraction and northern range expansion of Empetrum nigrum, a key species in northern heathlands, which may be related to global change. We hypothesized a negative response to warming in the ‘south’ (i.e. the Netherlands) and a positive response at the northern range margin (the tundra on Svalbard). Open top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate global warming. In the ‘south’, OTC warming caused enhanced shoot growth and growth rate, biomass increment, advanced phenology, larger and heavier berries of Empetrum, while its growing season was extended by 75 days. Under OTC warming co-occurring Calluna vulgaris also showed an increased growing season length (by 98 days) as well as increased shoot growth rate and biomass growth, plant cover and height. Still, we found no evidence for increased competitiveness relative to Empetrum. In the ‘north’, Empetrum responded with increased shoot and biomass growth, enhanced berry development and ripening to warming. These responses exceeded those of co-occurring Cassiope tetragona with the exception of its biomass response. The direct and indirect ecological responses found do not readily explain the observed northward retreat of Empetrum at the southern range margin. The direct ecological responses found at its northern range margin are, on the other hand, in line with the increased occurrences of this species on Svalbard. (letter)

  4. Mortality, diarrhea and respiratory disease in Danish dairy heifer calves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiten, M.; Rousing, T.; Thomsen, P. T.

    2018-01-01

    system (conventional/organic), season (summer/winter) and calf mortality risk, diarrhea, signs of respiratory disease and ocular discharge, respectively, for dairy heifer calves aged 0–180 days. Sixty Danish dairy herds, 30 conventional and 30 organic, were visited once during summer and once during......Diarrhea and respiratory disease are major health problems for dairy calves, often causing calf mortality. Previous studies have found calf mortality to be higher in organic dairy herds compared to conventional herds. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between production...... variables and in certain age groups, dependent on production system and season....

  5. Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

    2017-12-01

    Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

  6. Health effects of global warming: Problems in assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Longstreth, J.

    1993-06-01

    Global warming is likely to result in a variety of environmental effects ranging from impacts on species diversity, changes in population size in flora and fauna, increases in sea level and possible impacts on the primary productivity of the sea. Potential impacts on human health and welfare have included possible increases in heat related mortality, changes in the distribution of disease vectors, and possible impacts on respiratory diseases including hayfever and asthma. Most of the focus thus far is on effects which are directly related to increases in temperature, e.g., heat stress or perhaps one step removed, e.g., changes in vector distribution. Some of the more severe impacts are likely to be much less direct, e.g., increases in migration due to agricultural failure following prolonged droughts. This paper discusses two possible approaches to the study of these less-direct impacts of global warming and presents information from on-going research using each of these approaches

  7. Strong delayed interactive effects of metal exposure and warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Debecker, Sara; Dinh, Khuong Van; Stoks, Robby

    2017-01-01

    ’ ranges could lead to an important underestimation of the risks. We addressed all three mechanisms by studying effects of larval exposure to zinc and warming before, during, and after metamorphosis in Ischnura elegans damselflies from high- and lowlatitude populations. By integrating these mechanisms...... into a single study, we could identify two novel patterns. First, during exposure zinc did not affect survival, whereas it induced mild to moderate postexposure mortality in the larval stage and at metamorphosis, and very strongly reduced adult lifespan. This severe delayed effect across metamorphosis...... was especially remarkable in high-latitude animals, as they appeared almost insensitive to zinc during the larval stage. Second, the well-known synergism between metals and warming was manifested not only during the larval stage but also after metamorphosis, yet notably only in low-latitude damselflies...

  8. Daily mortality and air pollutants: findings from Köln, Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spix, C; Wichmann, H E

    1996-04-01

    For the APHEA study, the short term effects of air pollutants on human health were investigated in a comparable way in various European cities. Daily mortality was used as one of the health effects indicators. This report aims to demonstrate the steps in epidemiological model building in this type of time series analysis aimed at detecting short term effects under a poisson distribution assumption and shows the tools for decision making. In addition, it assesses the impact of these steps on the pollution effect estimates. Köln, Germany, is a city of one million inhabitants. It is densely populated with a warm, humid, unfavourable climate and a high traffic density. In previous studies, smog episodes were found to increase mortality and higher sulphur dioxide (SO2) levels were connected with increases in the number of episodes of croup. Daily total mortality was obtained for 1975-85. SO2, total suspended particulates, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data were available from two to five stations for the city area, and size fractionated PM7 data from a neighbouring city. The main tools were time series plots of the raw data, predicted and residual data, the partial autocorrelation function and periodogram of the residuals, cross correlations of prefiltered series, plots of categorised influences, chi 2 statistics of influences and sensitivity analyses taking overdispersion and autocorrelation into account. With regard to model building, it is concluded that seasonal and epidemic correction are the most important steps. The actual model chosen depends very much on the properties of the data set. For the pollution effect estimates, trend, season, and epidemic corrections are important to avoid overestimation of the effect, while an appropriate short term meterology influence correction model may actually prevent underestimation. When the model leaves very little over-dispersion and autocorrelation in the residuals, which indicates a good fit, correction for them has

  9. Snake mortality associated with late season radio-transmitter implantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Craig Rudolph; Shirley J. Burgdorf; Richard R. Schaefer; Richard N. Conner; Robert T. Zappalorth

    1998-01-01

    Radio-telemetry is an increasingly used procedure to obtain data on the biology of free-living snakes (Reinert 1992, 1994). In Texas and Louisiana we have been using the surgical technique of Weatherhead and Anderka (1984) to implant transmitters in timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) and Louisiana pine snakes (Pituophis melanoleucus...

  10. Short-term effect of fine particulate air pollution on daily mortality: a case-crossover study in a tropical city, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Shang-Shyue; Chen, Chih-Cheng; Yang, Chun-Yuh

    2014-01-01

    Many studies have examined the short-term effects of air pollution on frequency of daily mortality over the past two decades. However, information on the relationship between levels of fine particles (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality is relatively sparse due to limited availability of monitoring data. Further the results are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to determine whether there was an association between PM(2.5) levels and daily mortality rate in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, a large industrial city with a tropical climate. Daily mortality rate, air pollution parameters, and weather data for Kaohsiung were obtained for the period from 2006 through 2008. The relative risk of daily mortality occurrence was estimated using a time-stratified case-crossover approach, controlling for (1) weather variables, (2) day of the week, (3) seasonality, and (4) long-term time trends. For the single-pollutant model (without adjustment for other pollutants), no significant effects were found between PM(2.5) and frequency of daily mortality on warm days (≥25°C). On cool days, PM(2.5) showed significant correlation with increased risk of mortality rate for all causes and circulatory diseases in single-pollutant model. There was no indication of an association between PM(2.5) and deaths due to respiratory diseases. The relationship appeared to be stronger on cool days. This study provided evidence of associations between short-term exposure to PM(2.5) and elevated risk of death for all cause and circulatory diseases.

  11. Changes in the Effect of Heat on Mortality in the Last 20 Years in Nine European Cities. Results from the PHASE Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de' Donato, Francesca K; Leone, Michela; Scortichini, Matteo; De Sario, Manuela; Katsouyanni, Klea; Lanki, Timo; Basagaña, Xavier; Ballester, Ferran; Åström, Christofer; Paldy, Anna; Pascal, Mathilde; Gasparrini, Antonio; Menne, Bettina; Michelozzi, Paola

    2015-12-08

    The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996-2002 and 2004-2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

  12. Drilling comparison in "warm ice" and drill design comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustin, L.; Motoyama, H.; Wilhelms, F.

    2007-01-01

    For the deep ice-core drilling community, the 2005/06 Antarctic season was an exciting and fruitful one. In three different Antarctic locations, Dome Fuji, EPICA DML and Vostok, deep drillings approached bedrock (the ice-water interface in the case of Vostok), emulating what had previously been...... achieved at NorthGRIP, Greenland, (summer 2003 and 2004) and at EPICA Dome C2, Antarctica (season 2004/05). For the first time in ice-core drilling history, three different types of drill (KEMS, JARE and EPICA) simultaneously reached the depth of 'warm ice' under high pressure. After excellent progress...... at each site, the drilling rate dropped and the drilling teams had to deal with refrozen ice on cutters and drill heads. Drills have different limits and perform differently. In this comparative study, we examine depth, pressure, temperature, pump flow and cutting speed. Finally, we compare a few...

  13. Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

  14. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  15. Chapter 5 - Tree Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Ambrose

    2014-01-01

    Tree mortality is a natural process in all forest ecosystems. Extremely high mortality, however, can also be an indicator of forest health issues. On a regional scale, high mortality levels may indicate widespread insect or disease problems. High mortality may also occur if a large proportion of the forest in a particular region is made up of older, senescent stands....

  16. Assessing spatial associations between thermal stress and mortality in Hong Kong: a small-area ecological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thach, Thuan-Quoc; Zheng, Qishi; Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Paulina Pui-Yun; Chau, Patsy Yuen-Kwan; Jahn, Heiko J; Plass, Dietrich; Katzschner, Lutz; Kraemer, Alexander; Wong, Chit-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) is a widely used index to assess thermal comfort of the human body. Evidence on how thermal stress-related health effects vary with small geographical areas is limited. The objectives of this study are (i) to explore whether there were significant patterns of geographical clustering of thermal stress as measured by PET and mortality and (ii) to assess the association between PET and mortality in small geographical areas. A small area ecological cross-sectional study was conducted at tertiary planning units (TPUs) level. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and monthly deaths at TPUs level for 2006 were calculated for cause-specific diseases. A PET map with 100 m × 100 m resolution for the same period was derived from Hong Kong Urban Climatic Analysis Map data and the annual and monthly averages of PET for each TPU were computed. Global Moran's I and local indicator of spatial association (LISA) analyses were performed. A generalized linear mixed model was used to model monthly deaths against PET adjusted for socio-economic deprivation. We found positive spatial autocorrelation between PET and ASMR. There were spatial correlations between PET and ASMR, particularly in the north of Hong Kong Island, most parts of Kowloon, and across New Territories. A 1°C change in PET was associated with an excess risk (%) of 2.99 (95% CI: 0.50-5.48) for all natural causes, 4.75 (1.14-8.36) for cardiovascular, 7.39 (4.64-10.10) for respiratory diseases in the cool season, and 4.31 (0.12 to 8.50) for cardiovascular diseases in the warm season. Variations between TPUs in PET had an important influence on cause-specific mortality, especially in the cool season. PET may have an impact on the health of socio-economically deprived population groups. Our results suggest that targeting policy interventions at high-risk areas may be a feasible option for reducing PET-related mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  18. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  19. Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten

    2016-12-01

    The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

  20. Timing of Seasonal Sales.

    OpenAIRE

    Courty, Pascal; Li, Hao

    1999-01-01

    We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores choose several designs at the beginning of the season without knowing wich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have a chance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionable ones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of the season, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing their fashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods still on the shelves, stores adjust down...

  1. Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zona, Donatella; Gioli, Beniamino; Commane, Róisín; Lindaas, Jakob; Wofsy, Steven C.; Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J.; Dengel, Sigrid; Sweeney, Colm; Karion, Anna; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Henderson, John M.; Murphy, Patrick C.; Goodrich, Jordan P.; Moreaux, Virginie; Liljedahl, Anna; Watts, Jennifer D.; Kimball, John S.; Lipson, David A.; Oechel, Walter C.

    2016-01-01

    Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y-1, ∼25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

  2. Cosmic rays and global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erlykin, A.D. [P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Sloan, T. [Lancaster University (United Kingdom); Wolfendale, A.W. [Durham University (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-01

    The possible effects of cosmic rays on clouds could contribute to global warming. The argument is that the observed increased solar activity during the last century caused a decrease in the ionization due to cosmic rays since the lower energy cosmic particles are deflected by the magnetic field created by the increasing solar wind. This would lead to a decrease in cloud cover allowing more heating of the earth by the sun. Meteorological data combined to solar activity observations and simulations show that any effect of solar activity on clouds and the climate is likely to be through irradiance rather than cosmic rays. Since solar irradiance transfers 8 orders of magnitude more energy to the atmosphere than cosmic rays it is more plausible that this can produce a real effect. The total contribution of variable solar activity to global warming is shown to be less than 14% of the total temperature rise. (A.C.)

  3. Global Warming and Financial Umbrellas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dosi, C.; Moretto, M.

    2001-10-01

    A new instrument for hedging weather risks has made its appearance in the financial arena. Trade in 'weather derivatives' has taken off in the US, and interest is growing elsewhere. Whilst such contracts may be simply interpreted as a new tool for solving a historical problem, the question addressed in this paper is if, besides other factors, the appearance of weather derivatives is somehow related to anthropogenic climate change. Our tentative answer is positive. Since 'global warming' does not simply mean an increase in averaged temperatures, but increased climate variability, and increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, derivative contracts may potentially become a useful tool for hedging some weather risks, insofar as they may provide coverage at a lower cost than standard insurance schemes. Keywords: Global warming, climate variability, insurance coverage, weather derivatives

  4. Warm Debris Disks from WISE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padgett, Deborah L.

    2011-01-01

    "The Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has just completed a sensitive all-sky survey in photometric bands at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 microns. We report on a preliminary investigation of main sequence Hipparcos and Tycho catalog stars with 22 micron emission in excess of photospheric levels. This warm excess emission traces material in the circumstellar region likely to host terrestrial planets and is preferentially found in young systems with ages warm debris disk candidates are detected among FGK stars and a similar number of A stars within 120 pc. We are in the process of obtaining spectra to determine spectral types and activity level of these stars and are using HST, Herschel and Keck to characterize the dust, multiplicity, and substellar companions of these systems. In this contribution, we will discuss source selection methods and individual examples from among the WISE debris disk candidates. "

  5. Global Warming Blame the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Calder, N

    1997-01-01

    Concern about climate change reaches a political peak at a UN conference in Kyoto, 1-10 December, but behind the scenes the science is in turmoil. A challenge to the hypothesis that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming comes from the discovery that cosmic rays from the Galaxy are involved in making clouds (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). During the 20th Century the wind from the Sun has grown stronger and the count of cosmic rays has diminished. With fewer clouds, the EarthÕs surface has warmed up. This surprising mechanism explains the link between the Sun and climate change that astronomers and geophysicists have suspected for 200 years.

  6. Plant movements and climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A.; De Schrijver, An

    2014-01-01

    environments can establish in nonlocal sites. •We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional...... range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. •We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil...... collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently ‘colder’ soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant...

  7. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  8. Global warming and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonand, Frederic

    2015-01-01

    The macro-economic impacts of climate change and of policies to reduce carbon content should be moderate on a global basis for the planet - a few hundredths of a % of world GDP on an annual basis, but significant for some regions (Asia-Pacific notably). The probability of extreme climatic events justifies with effect from today the implementation of measures that will carry a cost in order to limit global warming. (author)

  9. Nitrous oxide and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, C.

    1994-01-01

    The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

  10. Failure of Aedes albopictus to overwinter following introduction and seasonal establishment at a tire recycling plant in the northeastern USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, Theodore G

    2009-03-01

    In July 2006, an introduction of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, was documented for the first time at a commercial tire recycling plant in northeastern Connecticut, USA. The introduction likely occurred via transport of infested tires originating from northern New Jersey or metropolitan New York City. Efforts were made to determine seasonal establishment and overwintering success by assessing adult biting and oviposition activity in the surrounding woodlands. The first adult female was collected in a CO2-baited Mosquito Magnet Liberty trap within the confines of the tire plant during the week of July 28. Additional females were collected intermittently thereafter through October 16. Host-seeking female Ae. albopictus attempting to alight on human subjects and larvae hatching from eggs collected in ovitraps placed in the woodlands surrounding the tire plant were detected weekly from August 21 through October 2, denoting seasonal establishment in the adjoining woodlands. However, no larvae of Ae. albopictus were recovered from eggs collected in ovitraps that were placed in the surrounding woodlands or in traps placed 1.0-1.6 km away, nor were any host-seeking females detected by human subjects the following season (July to October 2007), indicating that the species did not survive winter conditions to enable successful colonization. The failure of Ae. albopictus to overwinter and establish itself in the forested woodlands following several weeks of seasonal breeding and oviposition during the summer and early fall were most likely due to winter egg mortality, interspecific competition from Aedes triseriatus and Aedes japonicus, and/or other ecological barriers. Permanent establishment of Ae. albopictus in New England is unlikely despite the recurring importation of infested used tires into recycling facilities. However, continued monitoring of such facilities for potential reinvasion is warranted especially in urban/suburban environs where global warming

  11. Movement of global warming issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Taishi

    2015-01-01

    This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

  12. Global warming: Economic policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  13. World warms to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortimer, N.

    1989-01-01

    The greenhouse effect and global warming is a major environmental issue. The nuclear industry has taken this opportunity to promote itself as providing clean energy without implication in either the greenhouse effect or acid rain. However, it is acknowledged that nuclear power does have its own environment concerns. Two questions are posed -does nuclear power contribute to carbon dioxide emissions and can nuclear power provide a realistic long-term solution to global warming? Although nuclear power stations do not emit carbon dioxide, emissions occur during the manufacture of reactor components, the operation of the nuclear fuel cycle and especially, during the mining and processing of the uranium ore. It is estimated that the supply of high grade ores will last only 23 years, beyond that the carbon dioxide emitted during the processing is estimated to be as great as the carbon dioxide emitted from an coal-fired reactor. Fast breeder reactors are dismissed as unable to provide an answer, so it is concluded that nuclear technology has only a very limited role to play in countering global warming.(UK)

  14. Greenhouse gases and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    From previous articles we have learned about the complexities of our environment, its atmosphere and its climate system. we have also learned that climate change and, therefore global warm and cool periods are naturally occurring phenomena. Moreover, all scientific evidence suggests that global warming, are likely to occur again naturally in the future. However, we have not yet considered the role of the rates of climate change in affecting the biosphere. It appears that how quickly the climate changes may be more important than the change itself. In light of this concern, let us now consider the possibility that, is due to human activity. We may over the next century experience global warming at rates and magnitudes unparalleled in recent geologic history. The following questions are answered; What can we learn from past climates? What do we know about global climates over the past 100 years? What causes temperature change? What are the greenhouse gases? How much have concentration of greenhouse gases increased in recent years? Why are increases in concentrations of greenhouse of concern? What is the e nhanced greenhouse effect ? How can human activity impact the global climate? What are some reasons for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases? What are fossil fuel and how do they transform into greenhouse gases? Who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Why are canada per capita emissions of greenhouse gases relatively high? (Author)

  15. Relict Mountain Permafrost Area (Loess Plateau, China) Exhibits High Ecosystem Respiration Rates and Accelerating Rates in Response to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Cuicui; Wu, Xiaodong; Zhao, Qian; Smoak, Joseph M.; Yang, Yulong; Hu, Lian; Zhong, Wen; Liu, Guimin; Xu, Haiyan; Zhang, Tingjun

    2017-10-01

    Relict permafrost regions are characterized by thin permafrost and relatively high temperatures. Understanding the ecosystem respiration rate (ERR) and its relationship with soil hydrothermal conditions in these areas can provide knowledge regarding the permafrost carbon cycle in a warming world. In this study, we examined a permafrost area, a boundary area, and a seasonally frozen ground area within a relict permafrost region on the east edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. Measurements from July 2015 to September 2016 showed that the mean annual ecosystem CO2 emissions for the boundary area were greater than the permafrost area. The Q10 value of the ERRs in the seasonally frozen ground area was greater than the permafrost area, indicating that the carbon emissions in the nonpermafrost areas were more sensitive to warming. The 1 year open-top chamber (OTC) warming increased soil temperatures in both the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground areas throughout the year, and the warming increased the ERRs by 1.18 (0.99-1.38, with interquartile range) and 1.13 (0.75-1.54, with interquartile range) μmol CO2 m-2 s-1 in permafrost and seasonally frozen ground areas, respectively. The OTC warming increased annual ERRs by approximately 50% for both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground areas with half the increase occurring during the nongrowing seasons. These results suggest that the ERRs in relict permafrost are high in comparison with arctic regions, and the carbon balance in relict permafrost areas could be greatly changed by climate warming.

  16. [Excess mortality associated with influenza in Spain in winter 2012].

    Science.gov (United States)

    León-Gómez, Inmaculada; Delgado-Sanz, Concepción; Jiménez-Jorge, Silvia; Flores, Víctor; Simón, Fernando; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Larrauri, Amparo; de Mateo Ontañón, Salvador

    2015-01-01

    An excess of mortality was detected in Spain in February and March 2012 by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the «European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action» program. The objective of this article was to determine whether this excess could be attributed to influenza in this period. Excess mortality from all causes from 2006 to 2012 were studied using time series in the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system, and Poisson regression in the European mortality surveillance system, as well as the FluMOMO model, which estimates the mortality attributable to influenza. Excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia attributable to influenza were studied by a modification of the Serfling model. To detect the periods of excess, we compared observed and expected mortality. In February and March 2012, both the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and the European mortality surveillance system detected a mortality excess of 8,110 and 10,872 deaths (mortality ratio (MR): 1.22 (95% CI:1.21-1.23) and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.29-1.31), respectively). In the 2011-12 season, the FluMOMO model identified the maximum percentage (97%) of deaths attributable to influenza in people older than 64 years with respect to the mortality total associated with influenza (13,822 deaths). The rate of excess mortality due to influenza and pneumonia and respiratory causes in people older than 64 years, obtained by the Serfling model, also reached a peak in the 2011-2012 season: 18.07 and 77.20, deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. A significant increase in mortality in elderly people in Spain was detected by the Spanish daily mortality surveillance system and by the European mortality surveillance system in the winter of 2012, coinciding with a late influenza season, with a predominance of the A(H3N2) virus, and a cold wave in Spain. This study suggests that influenza could have been one of the main factors contributing to the mortality excess

  17. Fifty consecutive pancreatectomies without mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enio Campos Amico

    Full Text Available Objective: to report the group's experience with a series of patients undergoing pancreatic resection presenting null mortality rates. Methods: we prospectively studied 50 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic resections for peri-ampullary or pancreatic diseases. Main local complications were defined according to international criteria. In-hospital mortality was defined as death occurring in the first 90 postoperative days. Results: patients' age ranged between 16 and 90 years (average: 53.3. We found anemia (Hb < 12g/dl and preoperative jaundice in 38% and 40% of cases, respectively. Most patients presented with peri-ampullary tumors (66%. The most common surgical procedure was the Kausch - Whipple operation (70%. Six patients (12% needed to undergo resection of a segment of the mesenteric-portal axis. The mean operative time was 445.1 minutes. Twenty two patients (44% showed no clinical complications and presented mean hospital stay of 10.3 days. The most frequent complications were pancreatic fistula (56%, delayed gastric emptying (17.1% and bleeding (16%. Conclusion : within the last three decades, pancreatic resection is still considered a challenge, especially outside large specialized centers. Nevertheless, even in our country (Brazil, teams seasoned in such procedure can reach low mortality rates.

  18. Seasonal variability of rocky reef fish assemblages: Detecting functional and structural changes due to fishing effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriques, Sofia; Pais, Miguel Pessanha; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique Nogueira

    2013-05-01

    The present study analyzed the effects of seasonal variation on the stability of fish-based metrics and their capability to detect changes in fish assemblages, which is yet poorly understood despite the general idea that guilds are more resilient to natural variability than species abundances. Three zones subject to different levels of fishing pressure inside the Arrábida Marine Protected Area (MPA) were sampled seasonally. The results showed differences between warm (summer and autumn) and cold (winter and spring) seasons, with the autumn clearly standing out. In general, the values of the metrics density of juveniles, density of invertebrate feeders and density of omnivores increased in warm seasons, which can be attributed to differences in recruitment patterns, spawning migrations and feeding activity among seasons. The density of generalist/opportunistic individuals was sensitive to the effect of fishing, with higher values at zones with the lowest level of protection, while the density of individuals with high commercial value only responded to fishing in the autumn, due to a cumulative result of both juveniles and adults abundances during this season. Overall, this study showed that seasonal variability affects structural and functional features of the fish assemblage and that might influence the detection of changes as a result of anthropogenic pressures. The choice of a specific season, during warm sea conditions after the spawning period (July-October), seems to be more adequate to assess changes on rocky-reef fish assemblages.

  19. Warm Dense Matter: An Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalantar, D H; Lee, R W; Molitoris, J D

    2004-01-01

    This document provides a summary of the ''LLNL Workshop on Extreme States of Materials: Warm Dense Matter to NIF'' which was held on 20, 21, and 22 February 2002 at the Wente Conference Center in Livermore, CA. The warm dense matter regime, the transitional phase space region between cold material and hot plasma, is presently poorly understood. The drive to understand the nature of matter in this regime is sparking scientific activity worldwide. In addition to pure scientific interest, finite temperature dense matter occurs in the regimes of interest to the SSMP (Stockpile Stewardship Materials Program). So that obtaining a better understanding of WDM is important to performing effective experiments at, e.g., NIF, a primary mission of LLNL. At this workshop we examined current experimental and theoretical work performed at, and in conjunction with, LLNL to focus future activities and define our role in this rapidly emerging research area. On the experimental front LLNL plays a leading role in three of the five relevant areas and has the opportunity to become a major player in the other two. Discussion at the workshop indicated that the path forward for the experimental efforts at LLNL were two fold: First, we are doing reasonable baseline work at SPLs, HE, and High Energy Lasers with more effort encouraged. Second, we need to plan effectively for the next evolution in large scale facilities, both laser (NIF) and Light/Beam sources (LCLS/TESLA and GSI) Theoretically, LLNL has major research advantages in areas as diverse as the thermochemical approach to warm dense matter equations of state to first principles molecular dynamics simulations. However, it was clear that there is much work to be done theoretically to understand warm dense matter. Further, there is a need for a close collaboration between the generation of verifiable experimental data that can provide benchmarks of both the experimental techniques and the theoretical capabilities. The conclusion of this

  20. Mortality table construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawanir

    2015-12-01

    Mortality tables play important role in actuarial studies such as life annuities, premium determination, premium reserve, valuation pension plan, pension funding. Some known mortality tables are CSO mortality table, Indonesian Mortality Table, Bowers mortality table, Japan Mortality table. For actuary applications some tables are constructed with different environment such as single decrement, double decrement, and multiple decrement. There exist two approaches in mortality table construction : mathematics approach and statistical approach. Distribution model and estimation theory are the statistical concepts that are used in mortality table construction. This article aims to discuss the statistical approach in mortality table construction. The distributional assumptions are uniform death distribution (UDD) and constant force (exponential). Moment estimation and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the mortality parameter. Moment estimation methods are easier to manipulate compared to maximum likelihood estimation (mle). However, the complete mortality data are not used in moment estimation method. Maximum likelihood exploited all available information in mortality estimation. Some mle equations are complicated and solved using numerical methods. The article focus on single decrement estimation using moment and maximum likelihood estimation. Some extension to double decrement will introduced. Simple dataset will be used to illustrated the mortality estimation, and mortality table.

  1. Effects of in situ climate warming on monarch caterpillar (Danaus plexippus development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Lemoine

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate warming will fundamentally alter basic life history strategies of many ectothermic insects. In the lab, rising temperatures increase growth rates of lepidopteran larvae but also reduce final pupal mass and increase mortality. Using in situ field warming experiments on their natural host plants, we assessed the impact of climate warming on development of monarch (Danaus plexippus larvae. Monarchs were reared on Asclepias tuberosa grown under ‘Ambient’ and ‘Warmed’ conditions. We quantified time to pupation, final pupal mass, and survivorship. Warming significantly decreased time to pupation, such that an increase of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.5 day decrease in pupation time. In contrast, survivorship and pupal mass were not affected by warming. Our results indicate that climate warming will speed the developmental rate of monarchs, influencing their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, the effects of climate warming on larval development in other monarch populations and at different times of year should be investigated.

  2. Impact and prevention on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  3. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  4. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-06-03

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

  5. Global warming and the forest fire business in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stocks, B.J.

    1991-01-01

    The current forest fire situation in Canada is outlined, and an attempt is made to predict the impact of global warming on the forest fire business in Canada. Despite the development of extremely sophisticated provincial and territorial fire management systems, forest fires continue to exert a tremendous influence on the Canadian forest resource. Research into the relationship between climate warming and forest fires has fallen into two categories: the effect of future global warming on fire weather severity, and the current contribution of forest fires to global atmospheric greenhouse gas budgets. A 46% increase in seasonal fire severity across Canada is suggested under a doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration scenario. Approximately 89% of carbon released to the atmosphere by forest fire burning is in the form of carbon dioxide, 9% is carbon monoxide, and the remaining carbon is released as methane or non-methane hydrocarbons. It is estimated that forest fires in northern circumpolar countries contribute from 1-2% of the carbon released globally through biomass burning. Fire may be the agent by which a northerly shift of forest vegetation in Canada occurs. 13 refs., 2 figs

  6. Experimental warming differentially affects microbial structure and activity in two contrasted moisture sites in a Sphagnum-dominated peatland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delarue, Frédéric; Buttler, Alexandre; Bragazza, Luca; Grasset, Laurent; Jassey, Vincent E J; Gogo, Sébastien; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima

    2015-04-01

    Several studies on the impact of climate warming have indicated that peat decomposition/mineralization will be enhanced. Most of these studies deal with the impact of experimental warming during summer when prevalent abiotic conditions are favorable to decomposition. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental air warming by open-top chambers (OTCs) on water-extractable organic matter (WEOM), microbial biomasses and enzymatic activities in two contrasted moisture sites named Bog and Fen sites, the latter considered as the wetter ones. While no or few changes in peat temperature and water content appeared under the overall effect of OTCs, we observed that air warming smoothed water content differences and led to a decrease in mean peat temperature at the warmed Bog sites. This thermal discrepancy between the two sites led to contrasting changes in microbial structure and activities: a rise in hydrolytic activity at the warmed Bog sites and a relative enhancement of bacterial biomass at the warmed Fen sites. These features were not associated with any change in WEOM properties namely carbon and sugar contents and aromaticity, suggesting that air warming did not trigger any shift in OM decomposition. Using various tools, we show that the use of single indicators of OM decomposition can lead to fallacious conclusions. Lastly, these patterns may change seasonally as a consequence of complex interactions between groundwater level and air warming, suggesting the need to improve our knowledge using a high time-resolution approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The effects of warming and nitrogen addition on soil nitrogen cycling in a temperate grassland, northeastern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin-Na Ma

    Full Text Available Both climate warming and atmospheric nitrogen (N deposition are predicted to affect soil N cycling in terrestrial biomes over the next century. However, the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on soil N mineralization in temperate grasslands are poorly understood.A field manipulation experiment was conducted to examine the effects of warming and N addition on soil N cycling in a temperate grassland of northeastern China from 2007 to 2009. Soil samples were incubated at a constant temperature and moisture, from samples collected in the field. The results showed that both warming and N addition significantly stimulated soil net N mineralization rate and net nitrification rate. Combined warming and N addition caused an interactive effect on N mineralization, which could be explained by the relative shift of soil microbial community structure because of fungal biomass increase and strong plant uptake of added N due to warming. Irrespective of strong intra- and inter-annual variations in soil N mineralization, the responses of N mineralization to warming and N addition did not change during the three growing seasons, suggesting independence of warming and N responses of N mineralization from precipitation variations in the temperate grassland.Interactions between climate warming and N deposition on soil N cycling were significant. These findings will improve our understanding on the response of soil N cycling to the simultaneous climate change drivers in temperate grassland ecosystem.

  8. Artificial climate warming positively affects arbuscular mycorrhizae but decreases soil aggregate water stability in an annual grassland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rillig, M.C.; Wright, S.F.; Shaw, M.R.; Field, C.B.

    2002-04-01

    Despite the importance of arbuscular mycorrhizae to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. nutrient uptake, soil aggregation), and the increasing evidence of global warming, responses of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to climate warming are poorly understood. In a field experiment using infrared heaters, we found effects of warming on AMF after one growing season in an annual grassland, in the absence of any effects on measured root parameters (weight, length, average diameter). AMF soil hyphal length was increased by over 40% in the warmed plots, accompanied by a strong trend for AMF root colonization increase. In the following year, root weight was again not significantly changed, and AMF root colonization increased significantly in the warmed plots. Concentration of the soil protein glomalin, a glycoprotein produced by AMF hyphae with importance in soil aggregation, was decreased in the warmed plots. Soil aggregate water stability, measured for five diameter size classes, was also decreased significantly. In the following year, soil aggregate weight in two size classes was decreased significantly, but the effect size was very small. These results indicate that ecosystem warming may have stimulated carbon allocation to AMF. Other factors either influenced glomalin decomposition or production, hence influencing the role of these symbionts in soil aggregation. The observed small changes in soil aggregation, if widespread among terrestrial ecosystems, could have important consequences for soil carbon storage and erosion in a warmed climate, especially if there are cumulative effects of warming. (au)

  9. Methods of patient warming during abdominal surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Shao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Keeping abdominal surgery patients warm is common and warming methods are needed in power outages during natural disasters. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of low-cost, low-power warming methods for maintaining normothermia in abdominal surgery patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 160 scheduled for elective abdominal surgery were included in this prospective clinical study. Five warming methods were applied: heated blood transfusion/fluid infusion vs. unheated; wrapping patients vs. not wrapping; applying moist dressings, heated or not; surgical field rinse heated or not; and applying heating blankets or not. Patients' nasopharyngeal and rectal temperatures were recorded to evaluate warming efficacy. Significant differences were found in mean temperatures of warmed patients compared to those not warmed. RESULTS: When we compared temperatures of abdominal surgery patient groups receiving three specific warming methods with temperatures of control groups not receiving these methods, significant differences were revealed in temperatures maintained during the surgeries between the warmed groups and controls. DISCUSSION: The value of maintaining normothermia in patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia is accepted. Three effective economical and practically applicable warming methods are combined body wrapping and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and warmed surgical rinse fluid, with or without heating blanket. These methods are practically applicable when low-cost method is indeed needed.

  10. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  11. Differential responses of invasive and native plants to warming with simulated changes in diurnal temperature ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bao-Ming; Gao, Yang; Liao, Hui-Xuan; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2017-07-01

    both the invasive and native plants, while the asymmetric summer warming treatments (DTR inc and DTR dec ) decreased the biomass of the invasive but not the native plants. In addition, wintertime DTR inc did not enhance the biomass of all the plants relative to DTR sym . Our results were obtained in an unrealistic setting; the growth conditions in chambers (e.g. low light, low herbivory, no competition) are quite different from natural conditions (high light, normal herbivory and competition), which may influence the effects of warming on the seedling establishment and growth of both invasive and native plants. Nonetheless, our work highlights the importance of asymmetric warming, particularly in regards to the comparison with the effects of symmetric warming on both invasive and native plants. Conclusions regarding the effects of future warming should be made cautiously because warming with different DTRs may suggest different implications for invasion, and effects of warming may be different in different seasons.

  12. Effects of global warming on ancient mammalian communities and their environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa R G DeSantis

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3/C(4 transitions and relative seasonality.Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4 grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming.Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N. Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems.

  13. Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

  14. [Effects of diurnal warming on soil N2O emission in soybean field].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zheng-Hua; Zhou, Ying-Ping; Cui, Hai-Ling; Chen, Shu-Tao; Xiao, Qi-Tao; Liu, Yan

    2013-08-01

    To investigate the impact of experimental warming on N2O emission from soil of soybean field, outdoor experiments with simulating diurnal warming were conducted, and static dark chamber-gas chromatograph method was used to measure N2O emission fluxes. Results indicated that: the diurnal warming did not change the seasonal pattern of N2O emissions from soil. In the whole growing season, comparing to the control treatment (CK), the warming treatment (T) significantly enhanced the N2O flux and the cumulative amount of N2O by 17.31% (P = 0.019), and 20.27% (P = 0.005), respectively. The significant correlations were found between soil N2O emission and soil temperature, moisture. The temperature sensitivity values of soil N2O emission under CK and T treatments were 3.75 and 4.10, respectively. In whole growing stage, T treatment significantly increased the crop aboveground and total biomass, the nitrate reductase activity, and total nitrogen in leaves, while significantly decreased NO3(-) -N content in leaves. T treatment significantly increased soil NO3(-) -N content, but had no significant effect on soil organic carbon and total nitrogen contents. The results of this study suggested that diurnal warming enhanced N2O emission from soil in soybean field.

  15. Global warming-setting the stages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

  16. Microbial biomass dynamics dominate N cycle responses to warming in a sub-arctic peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weedon, J. T.; Aerts, R.; Kowalchuk, G. K.; van Bodegom, P. M.

    2012-04-01

    The balance of primary production and decomposition in sub-arctic peatlands may shift with climate change. Nitrogen availability will modulate this shift, but little is known about the drivers of soil nitrogen dynamics in these environments, and how they are influenced by rising soil temperatures. We used a long-term open top chamber warming experiment in Abisko, Sweden, to test for the interactive effects of spring warming, summer warming and winter snow addition on soil organic and inorganic nitrogen fluxes, potential activities of carbon and nitrogen cycle enzymes, and the structure of the soil-borne microbial communities. Summer warming increased the flux of soil organic nitrogen over the growing season, while simultaneously causing a seasonal decrease in microbial biomass, suggesting that N flux is driven by large late-season dieback of microbes. This change in N cycle dynamics was not reflected in any of the measured potential enzyme activities. Moreover, the soil microbial community structure was stable across treatments, suggesting non-specific microbial dieback. To further test whether the observed patterns were driven by direct temperature effects or indirect effects (via microbial biomass dynamics), we conducted follow-up controlled experiments in soil mesocosms. Experimental additions of dead microbial cells had stronger effects on N pool sizes and enzyme activities than either plant litter addition or a 5 °C alteration in incubation temperatures. Peat respiration was positively affected by both substrate addition and higher incubation temperatures, but the temperature-only effect was not sufficient to account for the increases in respiration observed in previous field experiments. We conclude that warming effects on peatland N cycling (and to some extent C cycling) are dominated by indirect effects, acting through alterations to the seasonal flux of microbe-derived organic matter. We propose that climate change models of soil carbon and nitrogen

  17. Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K. [The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences, Austin, TX (United States)

    2012-12-15

    Changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa are projected using a regional climate model at 90-km resolution, and confidence in the predictions is evaluated. The response is highly regional over West Africa, with decreases in growing season days up to 20% in the western Guinean coast and some regions to the east experiencing 5-10% increases. A longer growing season up to 30% in the central and eastern Sahel is predicted, with shorter seasons in parts of the western Sahel. In East Africa, the short rains (boreal fall) growing season is extended as the Indian Ocean warms, but anomalous mid-tropospheric moisture divergence and a northward shift of Sahel rainfall severely curtails the long rains (boreal spring) season. Enhanced rainfall in January and February increases the growing season in the Congo basin by 5-15% in association with enhanced southwesterly moisture transport from the tropical Atlantic. In Angola and the southern Congo basin, 40-80% reductions in austral spring growing season days are associated with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration. Large simulated reductions in growing season over southeastern Africa are judged to be inaccurate because they occur due to a reduction in rainfall in winter which is over-produced in the model. Only small decreases in the actual growing season are simulated when evapotranspiration increases in the warmer climate. The continent-wide changes in growing season are primarily the result of increased evapotranspiration over the warmed land, changes in the intensity and seasonal cycle of the thermal low, and warming of the Indian Ocean. (orig.)

  18. Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

    2017-10-01

    California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

  19. Global Warming and Its Health Impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossati, Antonella

    2017-01-01

    Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up

  20. Global Warming and Its Health Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonella Rossati

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far

  1. Telomere Length and Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kimura, Masayuki; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Gardner, Jeffrey P

    2008-01-01

    Leukocyte telomere length, representing the mean length of all telomeres in leukocytes, is ostensibly a bioindicator of human aging. The authors hypothesized that shorter telomeres might forecast imminent mortality in elderly people better than leukocyte telomere length. They performed mortality...

  2. Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Patrick F.; Mulvey, Robin L.; Brownlee, Annalis H.; Barrett, Tara M.; Pattison, Robert R.

    2015-12-01

    Shore pine, which is a subspecies of lodgepole pine, was a widespread and dominant tree species in Southeast Alaska during the early Holocene. At present, the distribution of shore pine in Alaska is restricted to coastal bogs and fens, likely by competition with Sitka spruce and Western hemlock. Monitoring of permanent plots as part of the United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program identified a recent loss of shore pine biomass in Southeast Alaska. The apparent loss of shore pine is concerning, because its presence adds a vertical dimension to coastal wetlands, which are the richest plant communities of the coastal temperate rainforest in Alaska. In this study, we examined the shore pine tree-ring record from a newly established plot network throughout Southeast Alaska and explored climate-growth relationships. We found a steep decline in shore pine growth from the early 1960s to the present. Random Forest regression revealed a strong correlation between the decline in shore pine growth and the rise in growing season diurnal minimum air temperature. Warm summer nights, cool daytime temperatures and a reduced diurnal temperature range are associated with greater cloud cover in Southeast Alaska. This suite of conditions could lead to unfavorable tree carbon budgets (reduced daytime photosynthesis and greater nighttime respiration) and/or favor infection by foliar pathogens, such as Dothistroma needle blight, which has recently caused widespread tree mortality on lodgepole pine plantations in British Columbia. Further field study that includes experimental manipulation (e.g., fungicide application) will be necessary to identify the proximal cause(s) of the growth decline. In the meantime, we anticipate continuation of the shore pine growth decline in Southeast Alaska.

  3. Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderegg, William R.L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

    2015-01-01

    The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

  4. Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Platt

    Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

  5. Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

    2015-01-01

    Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

  6. Relative effects of precipitation variability and warming on tallgrass prairie ecosystem function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. A. Fay

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation and temperature drive many aspects of terrestrial ecosystem function. Climate change scenarios predict increasing precipitation variability and temperature, and long term experiments are required to evaluate the ecosystem consequences of interannual climate variation, increased growing season (intra-annual rainfall variability, and warming. We present results from an experiment applying increased growing season rainfall variability and year round warming in native tallgrass prairie. During ten years of study, total growing season rainfall varied 2-fold, and we found ~50–200% interannual variability in plant growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP, leaf carbon assimilation (ACO2, and soil CO2 efflux (JCO2 despite only ~40% variation in mean volumetric soil water content (0–15 cm, Θ15. Interannual variation in soil moisture was thus amplified in most measures of ecosystem response. Differences between years in Θ15 explained the greatest portion (14–52% of the variation in these processes. Experimentally increased intra-annual season rainfall variability doubled the amplitude of intra-annual soil moisture variation and reduced Θ15 by 15%, causing most ecosystem processes to decrease 8–40% in some or all years with increased rainfall variability compared to ambient rainfall timing, suggesting reduced ecosystem rainfall use efficiency. Warming treatments increased soil temperature at 5 cm depth, particularly during spring, fall, and winter. Warming advanced canopy green up in spring, increased winter JCO2, and reduced summer JCO2 and forb ANPP, suggesting that the effects of warming differed in cooler versus warmer parts of the year. We conclude that (1 major ecosystem processes in this grassland may be substantially altered by predicted changes in

  7. An assessment of global warming stress on Caribbean coral reef ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atwood, D.K.; Hendec, J.C.; Mendez, A. (NOAA, Miami, FL (USA). Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorology Laboratory)

    1992-07-01

    There is evidence that stress on coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean region is increasing. Recently numerous authors have stated that the major stress results from 'abnormally high' seasonal sea surface temperatures (SST) and have implicated global warming as a cause, stating that recent episodes of coral bleaching result therefrom. However, an analysis of available SST data sets shows no discernible warming trend that could cause an increase in coral bleaching. Given the lack of long-term records synoptic with observations of coral ecosystem health, there is insufficient evidence available to label temperatures observed in coincidence with recent regional bleaching events as 'abnormally' high.

  8. Soil Temperature Manipulation to Study Global Warming Effects in Arable Land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, R H; Laegdsmand, M; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control......-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

  9. Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patil, Raveendra H.; Laegdsmand, Mette; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

    2013-01-01

    in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005 oC between heated...... that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies....

  10. An assessment of global warming stress on Caribbean coral reef ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atwood, D K; Hendec, J C; Mendez, A [NOAA, Miami, FL (USA). Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorology Laboratory

    1992-07-01

    There is evidence that stress on coral reef ecosystems in the Caribbean region is increasing. Recently numerous authors have stated that the major stress results from 'abnormally high' seasonal sea surface temperatures (SST) and have implicated global warming as a cause, stating that recent episodes of coral bleaching result therefrom. However, an analysis of available SST data sets shows no discernible warming trend that could cause an increase in coral bleaching. Given the lack of long-term records synoptic with observations of coral ecosystem health, there is insufficient evidence available to label temperatures observed in coincidence with recent regional bleaching events as 'abnormally' high.

  11. Identification of a seasonal pattern to brain metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakellakis M

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Minas Sakellakis,1 Angelos Koutras,1 Maria Pittaka,2 Dimitrios Kardamakis,2 Melpomeni Kalofonou,1 Haralabos P Kalofonos,1 Despina Spyropoulou2 1Division of Oncology, Department of Medicine, 2Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospital, Patras Medical School, Rion, Patras, GreeceWe have previously tested our hypothesis that there is a seasonality in the incidence of carcinomatous meningitis.1 Although further validation is needed in a larger cohort, we found that leptomeningeal metastasis occurred more often during warm months of the year which, in the case of Greece, is the period generally marked with the larger daytime length.1 Carcinomatous meningitis is closely related to brain metastasis, and a logical question is whether warm season is marked by a greater propensity also for brain metastasis.2 

  12. US demilitarization and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, A.G.; Liston-Heyes, C.; Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, London

    1993-01-01

    In the paper input-output methods are used to generate ballpark empirical estimates of the implications for global warming of the projected demilitarization of the US federal budget. The impact is found to be qualitatively ambiguous, and highly sensitive to the manner in which the funds saved are distributed. The effect is adverse where the budgetary savings are used to fund economy-wide cuts in personal taxation and/or deficit reduction. In other cases the effect may be neutral or beneficial. (author)

  13. Excess mortality in hyperthyroidism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjelm Brandt Kristensen, Frans; Pedersen, Dorthe Almind; Christensen, Kaare

    2012-01-01

    Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding.......Hyperthyroidism is associated with severe comorbidity, such as stroke, and seems to confer increased mortality. However, it is unknown whether this increased mortality is explained by hyperthyroidism per se, comorbidity, and/or genetic confounding....

  14. Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Kunst, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

  15. The effect of seasonality on burn incidence, severity and outcome in Central Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyson, Anna F; Gallaher, Jared; Mjuweni, Stephen; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

    2017-08-01

    In much of the world, burns are more common in cold months. However, few studies have described the seasonality of burns in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of seasonality on the incidence and outcome of burns in central Malawi. A retrospective analysis was performed at Kamuzu Central Hospital and included all patients admitted from May 2011 to August 2014. Demographic data, burn mechanism, total body surface area (%TBSA), and mortality were analyzed. Seasons were categorized as Rainy (December-February), Lush (March-May), Cold (June-August) and Hot (September-November). A negative binomial regression was used to assess the effect of seasonality on burn incidence. This was performed using both the raw and deseasonalized data in order to evaluate for trends not attributable to random fluctuation. A total of 905 patients were included. Flame (38%) and Scald (59%) burns were the most common mechanism. More burns occurred during the cold season (41% vs 19-20% in the other seasons). Overall mortality was 19%. Only the cold season had a statistically significant increase in burn . The incidence rate ratios (IRR) for the hot, lush, and cold seasons were 0.94 (CI 0.6-1.32), 1.02 (CI 0.72-1.45) and 1.6 (CI 1.17-2.19), respectively, when compared to the rainy season. Burn severity and mortality did not differ between seasons. The results of this study demonstrate the year-round phenomenon of burns treated at our institution, and highlights the slight predominance of burns during the cold season. These data can be used to guide prevention strategies, with special attention to the implications of the increased burn incidence during the cold season. Though burn severity and mortality remain relatively unchanged between seasons, recognizing the seasonal variability in incidence of burns is critical for resource allocation in this low-income setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  16. Global warming potential of pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  17. Global warming potential of pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

    2009-01-01

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  18. Economic approaches to greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1991-01-01

    Global environmental problems raise a host of major policy questions. They are all scientifically complex and controversial, and no scientific consensus is likely to emerge until irreversible decisions have been made. The costs and benefits of these changes transcend national boundaries, and nations, which cannot appropriate the global costs and benefits of such changes, are unlikely to be able or willing to make efficient decisions on how to combat these global externalities. In addition, these concerns sometimes have impacts over hundreds of years and thereby strain political decision making, which often functions effectively only when the crisis is at hand. This chapter considers some of the economic issues involved in deciding how to react to the threat of global warming. The author first reviews the theory and evidence on the greenhouse effect. He then presents evidence on the impacts of greenhouse warming, the costs of stabilizing climate, and the kinds of adaptations that might be available. In the final section, he reviews the policy initiatives that nations might follow in the near term

  19. Seasonality of Suicidal Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jong-Min; Okusaga, Olaoluwa; Postolache, Teodor T.

    2012-01-01

    A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general. PMID:22470308

  20. Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... than any non-seasonal depressions. Symptoms of Major Depression Feeling depressed most of the day, nearly every ... Bethesda, MD 20892-9663 Follow Us Facebook Twitter YouTube Google Plus NIMH Newsletter NIMH RSS Feed NIMH ...

  1. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  2. Increasing potential of biomass burning over Sumatra, Indonesia induced by anthropogenic tropical warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lestari, R Kartika; Watanabe, Masahiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Imada, Yukiko; Shiogama, Hideo; Field, Robert D; Takemura, Toshihiko

    2014-01-01

    Uncontrolled biomass burning in Indonesia during drought periods damages the landscape, degrades regional air quality, and acts as a disproportionately large source of greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of forest fires is mostly observed in October in Sumatra favored by persistent droughts during the dry season from June to November. The contribution of anthropogenic warming to the probability of severe droughts is not yet clear. Here, we show evidence that past events in Sumatra were exacerbated by anthropogenic warming and that they will become more frequent under a future emissions scenario. By conducting two sets of atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments driven by observed sea surface temperature for 1960–2011, one with and one without an anthropogenic warming component, we found that a recent weakening of the Walker circulation associated with tropical ocean warming increased the probability of severe droughts in Sumatra, despite increasing tropical-mean precipitation. A future increase in the frequency of droughts is then suggested from our analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model ensembles. Increasing precipitation to the north of the equator accompanies drier conditions over Indonesia, amplified by enhanced ocean surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific. The resultant precipitation decrease leads to a ∼25% increase in severe drought events from 1951–2000 to 2001–2050. Our results therefore indicate the global warming impact to a potential of wide-spreading forest fires over Indonesia, which requires mitigation policy for disaster prevention. (letter)

  3. Acclimation and soil moisture constrain sugar maple root respiration in experimentally warmed soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvi, Mickey P; Burton, Andrew J

    2013-09-01

    The response of root respiration to warmer soil can affect ecosystem carbon (C) allocation and the strength of positive feedbacks between climatic warming and soil CO2 efflux. This study sought to determine whether fine-root (maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.)-dominated northern hardwood forest would adjust to experimentally warmed soil, reducing C return to the atmosphere at the ecosystem scale to levels lower than that would be expected using an exponential temperature response function. Infrared heating lamps were used to warm the soil (+4 to +5 °C) in a mature sugar maple forest in a fully factorial design, including water additions used to offset the effects of warming-induced dry soil. Fine-root-specific respiration rates, root biomass, root nitrogen (N) concentration, soil temperature and soil moisture were measured from 2009 to 2011, with experimental treatments conducted from late 2010 to 2011. Partial acclimation of fine-root respiration to soil warming occurred, with soil moisture deficit further constraining specific respiration rates in heated plots. Fine-root biomass and N concentration remained unchanged. Over the 2011 growing season, ecosystem root respiration was not significantly greater in warmed soil. This result would not be predicted by models that allow respiration to increase exponentially with temperature and do not directly reduce root respiration in drier soil.

  4. Cross-stratified Wood: Enigmatic Woody Debris Deposits in Warm-Polar Fluvial Sediments (Pliocene Beaufort Formation, Nunavut)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, N. S.; Gosse, J. C.; Rybczynski, N.

    2012-04-01

    Woody debris has been an important sediment component and a significant geomorphic agent in pristine fluvial systems since the Devonian. In recent years a large volume of research has focussed on various aspects of the importance of woody debris within the fluvial realm; from the evolutionary significance of fossil wood accumulations in the rock record to studies of the biogeomorphological and ecological importance of woody debris in modern rivers. In this presentation we describe cross-stratified woody debris deposits comprising organic detritus from a boreal-type treeline forest that included species of pine, birch, poplar, alder, spruce, eastern cedar, and larch, in both shrub and tree form. The cross-stratified wood is an enigmatic subset of fine woody debris which, to our knowledge, has never before been described from either the global stratigraphic record or modern fluvial environments. The deposits we describe are located within the Pliocene Beaufort Formation on Meighen Island, Nunavut, Canada, at a latitude of 80°N, and are compared with other cross-stratified woody debris deposits that have been noted elsewhere in the Pliocene of the Canadian Arctic. We make the robust observation that these deposits appear to be geographically and stratigraphically restricted to polar latitudes from a period of warm climatic conditions during the Pliocene (15-20 °C warmer mean annual temperature than the present day). In this regard it is possible to speculate that the transport of large amounts of woody debris as bedload is potentially a unique feature of forested high latitude rivers. Such bedload deposition requires a large amount of woody debris with a greater density than the fluid transporting it. The softwood composition of the debris suggests that this was most likely attained by saturation and subsequent entrainment of extensive accumulations of deadwood, promoted by unusually high rates of tree mortality and low rates of bacterial decomposition arising from

  5. Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Baird, Andrew H; Connolly, Sean R; Dietzel, Andreas; Eakin, C Mark; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Liu, Gang; McWilliam, Michael J; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Skirving, William J; Stella, Jessica S; Torda, Gergely

    2018-04-01

    Global warming is rapidly emerging as a universal threat to ecological integrity and function, highlighting the urgent need for a better understanding of the impact of heat exposure on the resilience of ecosystems and the people who depend on them 1 . Here we show that in the aftermath of the record-breaking marine heatwave on the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 2 , corals began to die immediately on reefs where the accumulated heat exposure exceeded a critical threshold of degree heating weeks, which was 3-4 °C-weeks. After eight months, an exposure of 6 °C-weeks or more drove an unprecedented, regional-scale shift in the composition of coral assemblages, reflecting markedly divergent responses to heat stress by different taxa. Fast-growing staghorn and tabular corals suffered a catastrophic die-off, transforming the three-dimensionality and ecological functioning of 29% of the 3,863 reefs comprising the world's largest coral reef system. Our study bridges the gap between the theory and practice of assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse, under the emerging framework for the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems 3 , by rigorously defining both the initial and collapsed states, identifying the major driver of change, and establishing quantitative collapse thresholds. The increasing prevalence of post-bleaching mass mortality of corals represents a radical shift in the disturbance regimes of tropical reefs, both adding to and far exceeding the influence of recurrent cyclones and other local pulse events, presenting a fundamental challenge to the long-term future of these iconic ecosystems.

  6. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  7. Propagation of planktonic copepods: production and mortality of eggs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiørboe, Thomas; Møhlenberg, Flemming; Tiselius, Peter

    1988-01-01

    Data on fecundity and egg mortality of neritic copepods were collected in various seasons, areas and under various hydrographical conditions. On a seasonal basis variations in fecundity (F) were related to temperature rather than to the abundance of phytoplankton (P). However, a strong correlation...... between F and P was evident when water column stability varied horisontally or temporally (i.e. at a tidal front or subsequent to a storm). Estimated specific egg-mortalities were variable and occasionally very severe, up to 9.1 d−1, implying that down to 10−4% of the eggs survive to hatching...

  8. The physics and history of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yongyun

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is not only a hot research area in atmospheric sciences and even all Earth sciences but is also a controversial topic in the international community. The purpose of this paper is not to clarify these controversies, but instead, to address the physical basis on which our understanding of global warming is founded, and to briefly review the nearly 200-year history of global warming sciences. We hope the paper will help readers, who have no background in the atmospheric and climate sciences, understand scientific issues of global warming. (author)

  9. Effects of experimental warming and nitrogen addition on soil respiration and CH4 fluxes from crop rotations of winter wheat–soybean/fallow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P

    2015-01-01

    Soil respiration and CH4 emissions play a significant role in the global carbon balance. However, in situ studies in agricultural soils on responses of soil respiration and CH4 fluxes to climate warming are still sparse, especially from long-term studies with year-round heating. A warming...... by affecting soil NH4 concentration. Across years, CH4 emissions were negatively correlated with soil temperature in N1 treatment. Soil respiration showed clear seasonal fluctuations, with the largest emissions during summer and smallest in winter. Warming and nitrogen fertilization had no significant effects...... on total cumulative soil CO2 fluxes. Soil respiration was positively correlated with microbial biomass C, and microbial biomass C was not affected significantly by warming or nitrogen addition. The lack of significant effects of warming on soil respiration may have resulted from: (1) warming-induced soil...

  10. Investigate the plant biomass response to climate warming in permafrost ecosystem using matrix-based data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, X.; Du, Z.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Permafrost is one of the most vulnerable regions on the earth with over 40% world soil C represented in this region. Future climate warming potentially has a great impact on this region. On one hand, rising temperature accelerates permafrost soil thaw and release more C from land. On the other hand, warming may also increase the plant growing season length and therefore negatively feedback to climate change by increasing annual land C uptake. However, whether permafrost vegetation biomass change in response to warming can sequester more C has not been well understood. Manipulated air warming experiments reported that air warming has very limited impacts on grass land productivity and biomass growth in permafrost region [Mauritz et al., 2017]. It is hard to reveal the mechanisms behind the limited air warming response directly from experiment data. We employ a vegetation C cycle matrix model based on Community land model 4.5 (CLM4.5) and data assimilation technique to investigate how much do phenology and physiology processes contribute to the response respectively. Our results indicate phenology contributes the most in response to warming. The shift of vegetation parameter distributions after 2012 indicate vegetation acclimation may explain the modest response in plant biomass to air warming. The results suggest future model development need to take vegetation acclimation more seriously. The novel matrix-based model allows data assimilation to be conducted more efficiently. It provides more functional understanding of the models as well as the mechanism behind experiment data.

  11. Effects of warming on the structure and function of a boreal black spruce forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stith T.Gower

    2010-03-03

    A strong argument can be made that there is a greater need to study the effect of warming on boreal forests more than on any other terrestrial biome. Boreal forests, the second largest forest biome, are predicted to experience the greatest warming of any forest biome in the world, but a process-based understanding of how warming will affect the structure and function of this economically and ecologically important forest biome is lacking. The effects of warming on species composition, canopy structure and biogeochemical cycles are likely to be complex; elucidating the underlying mechanisms will require long-term whole-ecosystem manipulation to capture all the complex feedbacks (Shaver et al. 2000, Rustad et al. 2001, Stromgren 2001). The DOE Program for Ecosystem Research funded a three year project (2002-2005) to use replicated heated chambers on soil warming plots in northern Manitoba to examine the direct effects of whole-ecosystem warming. We are nearing completion of our first growing season of measurements (fall 2004). In spite of the unforeseen difficulty of installing the heating cable, our heating and irrigation systems worked extremely well, maintaining environmental conditions within 5-10% of the specified design 99% of the time. Preliminary data from these systems, all designed and built by our laboratory at the University of Wisconsin, support our overall hypothesis that warming will increase the carbon sink strength of upland boreal black spruce forests. I request an additional three years of funding to continue addressing the original objectives: (1) Examine the effect of warming on phenology of overstory, understory and bryophyte strata. Sap flux systems and dendrometer bands, monitored by data loggers, will be used to quantify changes in phenology and water use. (2) Quantify the effects of warming on nitrogen and water use by overstory, understory and bryophytes. (3) Compare effects of warming on autotrophic respiration and above- and belowground

  12. Strong Delayed Interactive Effects of Metal Exposure and Warming: Latitude-Dependent Synergisms Persist Across Metamorphosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debecker, Sara; Dinh, Khuong V; Stoks, Robby

    2017-02-21

    As contaminants are often more toxic at higher temperatures, predicting their impact under global warming remains a key challenge for ecological risk assessment. Ignoring delayed effects, synergistic interactions between contaminants and warming, and differences in sensitivity across species' ranges could lead to an important underestimation of the risks. We addressed all three mechanisms by studying effects of larval exposure to zinc and warming before, during, and after metamorphosis in Ischnura elegans damselflies from high- and low-latitude populations. By integrating these mechanisms into a single study, we could identify two novel patterns. First, during exposure zinc did not affect survival, whereas it induced mild to moderate postexposure mortality in the larval stage and at metamorphosis, and very strongly reduced adult lifespan. This severe delayed effect across metamorphosis was especially remarkable in high-latitude animals, as they appeared almost insensitive to zinc during the larval stage. Second, the well-known synergism between metals and warming was manifested not only during the larval stage but also after metamorphosis, yet notably only in low-latitude damselflies. These results highlight that a more complete life-cycle approach that incorporates the possibility of delayed interactions between contaminants and warming in a geographical context is crucial for a more realistic risk assessment in a warming world.

  13. Seasonal abundance and molecular identification of West Nile virus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seasonal abundance and molecular identification of West Nile virus vectors, Culex pipens and Culex ... Background: West Nile virus (WNV) infection, is an arbovirus infection with high morbidity and mortality, the vector respon- sible for both human ... Major diseases transmitted are known as Arboviral dis- eases because ...

  14. Warm liquid calorimetry for LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Geulig,E; Wallraff,W; Bézaguet, Alain-Arthur; Cavanna, F; Cinnini, P; Cittolin, Sergio; Dreesen, P; Demoulin, M; Dunps, L; Fucci, A; Gallay, G; Givernaud, Alain; Gonidec, A; Jank, Werner; Maurin, Guy; Placci, Alfredo; Porte, J P; Radermacher, E; Samyn, D; Schinzel, D; Schmidt, W F; CERN. Geneva. Detector Research and Development Committee

    1990-01-01

    Results from the beam tests of the U/TMP "warm liquid" calorimeter show that such a technique is very promising for the LHC. Our aim is to extend this programme and design a calorimeter that can satisfy the requirements of high rates, high radiation levels, compensation, uniformity and granularity, as well as fully contain hadronic showers. We propose to construct liquid ionization chambers operated at very high fields, capable of collecting the total charge produced by ionizing particles within times comparable to the bunch crossing time of the future Collider. For this reason we plan to extend the current programme on tetramethylpentane (TMP) to tetramethylsilane (TMSi). An electromagnetic calorimeter consisting of very high field ionization chambers filled with TMSi as sensitive medium with Uranium and/or other high density material as absorber will first be built (to be followed by a full-scale calorimeter module), on which newly designed fast amplifiers and readout electronics will be tested. In addition...

  15. The tragedy of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominique Auverlot

    2014-01-01

    The author first evokes the consequences of global warming: ocean acidity, ice melt, sea level rise, repeated and always more intense extreme climatic events (a list of the main meteorological and climatic events which occurred in 2013 is given). He outlines that these phenomena happen more quickly than foreseen. He notices that these facts confirm the content of the different IPCC reports. The author outlines the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He discusses the evolutions of these emissions between 1970 and 2010 in the different countries with respect to their level of economic development. It clearly appears that developed countries produce more emissions, and have only stabilized their emission level whereas emerging countries have notably increased their emissions. Developed and emerging countries should therefore act as quickly as possible

  16. Automobility: Global Warming as Symptomatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Backhaus

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The argument of this paper is that sustainability requires a new worldview-paradigm. It critically evaluates Gore’s liberal-based environmentalism in order to show how “shallow ecologies” are called into question by deeper ecologies. This analysis leads to the notion that global warming is better understood as a symptom indicative of the worldview that is the source for environmental crises. Heidegger’s ontological hermeneutics and its critique of modern technology show that the modern worldview involves an enframing (a totalizing technological ordering of the natural. Enframing reveals entities as standing reserve (on demand energy suppliers. My thesis maintains that enframing is geographically expressed as automobility. Because of the energy needs used to maintain automobility, reaching the goal of sustainability requires rethinking the spatial organization of life as a function of stored energy technologies.

  17. Warm anisotropic inflationary universe model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of warm inflation using vector fields in the background of a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I model of the universe. We formulate the field equations, and slow-roll and perturbation parameters (scalar and tensor power spectra as well as their spectral indices) in the slow-roll approximation. We evaluate all these parameters in terms of the directional Hubble parameter during the intermediate and logamediate inflationary regimes by taking the dissipation factor as a function of the scalar field as well as a constant. In each case, we calculate the observational parameter of interest, i.e., the tensor-scalar ratio in terms of the inflaton. The graphical behavior of these parameters shows that the anisotropic model is also compatible with WMAP7 and the Planck observational data. (orig.)

  18. Warm anisotropic inflationary universe model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2014-02-15

    This paper is devoted to the study of warm inflation using vector fields in the background of a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I model of the universe. We formulate the field equations, and slow-roll and perturbation parameters (scalar and tensor power spectra as well as their spectral indices) in the slow-roll approximation. We evaluate all these parameters in terms of the directional Hubble parameter during the intermediate and logamediate inflationary regimes by taking the dissipation factor as a function of the scalar field as well as a constant. In each case, we calculate the observational parameter of interest, i.e., the tensor-scalar ratio in terms of the inflaton. The graphical behavior of these parameters shows that the anisotropic model is also compatible with WMAP7 and the Planck observational data. (orig.)

  19. How to stop global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldenberg, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on how to stop global warming. At the Toronto Conference on Climate Change in 1988, the world's industrialized nations agreed on a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by the year 2005. This would not stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases but would at least slow their accumulation. Although difficult to achieve, the Toronto goal is certainly reachable. Newer, more efficient technologies can lower energy consumption without effecting economic output. CFC- substitutes can provide refrigeration. In fact, an international carbon tax of just $1 per barrel of oil, or $6 per ton of coal, would generate more than enough revenue to pay for the necessary fuel-saving measures. This tax could result from an international agreement similar to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which obliges its signatories to cut down on production of CFCs

  20. The economics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillet, G.; Hediger, W.; Kypreos, S.; Corbaz, C.

    1993-05-01

    The global warming threat is challenging the world community to both international cooperation and national policy action. This report focuses on the necessity to alternate between ''global and national climate policies''. The Swiss perspective is at issue. The economic rationales for comparing national climate policy options are analyzed. This report explicitly focusses on the fundamental role of the normative framework and the related environmental-economic requisites for establishing an efficient national climate policy and computing a ''carbon tax''. Finally, the latest results of the energy and greenhouse gas scenarios for Switzerland, elaborated on within the network of the IEA/ETSAP Project, Annex IV, ''Greenhouse Gases and National Energy Options: Technologies and Costs for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases'', illustrate Switzerland's difficulties in reducing greenhouse gas emissions at ''reasonable cost'' compared with other countries. This should make Switzerland very sensitive to the implementation of efficient environmental-policy instruments and international cooperation. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  1. Drought-associated tree mortality: Global patterns and insights from tree-ring studies in the southwestern U.S.A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macalady, Alison Kelly

    changes correctly classified the status of ˜70% of trees. Climate responses and competitive interactions partly explained growth differences between dying and surviving trees, with muted response to wet/cool conditions and enhanced sensitivity to competition from congeners linked to growth patterns associated with death. Discrimination and validation of models of mortality risk varied widely across sites and drought events, indicating shifting growth-mortality relationships and differences in mortality processes across space and time (Appendix B). Pre-formed defense anatomy is strongly associated with pinon survivorship over a range of sites and stand conditions. Models of mortality risk that account for both growth and resin duct attributes had ≈10 19 more support than models that contained only growth. The greatest improvement in classification was among trees from the 2000s drought, suggesting an enhanced role for tree defense allocation and/or bark beetle activity during recent warm versus historic cool drought. Accounting for defense characteristics and growth-defense allocation is likely to be important for improving representation of drought-associated mortality (Appendix C). Pinon resin duct chronologies contain climate responses that are coherent and distinct from those of radial growth. Growth responds positively and strongly to previous fall and current winter precipitation, and negatively to late spring and early summer temperature. A relatively equal positive resin duct response to winter precipitation and positive response to mid-to-late summer drought suggests that changes in climate will affect tree defense anatomy in complex ways, with the outcome determined by seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature (Appendix D).

  2. Keeping cool on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence

  3. Recent increased warming of the Alaskan marine Arctic due to midlatitude linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overland, James E.; Wang, Muyin; Ballinger, Thomas J.

    2018-01-01

    Alaskan Arctic waters have participated in hemispheric-wide Arctic warming over the last two decades at over two times the rate of global warming. During 2008-13, this relative warming occurred only north of the Bering Strait and the atmospheric Arctic front that forms a north-south thermal barrier. This front separates the southeastern Bering Sea temperatures from Arctic air masses. Model projections show that future temperatures in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas continue to warm at a rate greater than the global rate, reaching a change of +4°C by 2040 relative to the 1981-2010 mean. Offshore at 74°N, climate models project the open water duration season to increase from a current average of three months to five months by 2040. These rates are occasionally enhanced by midlatitude connections. Beginning in August 2014, additional Arctic warming was initiated due to increased SST anomalies in the North Pacific and associated shifts to southerly winds over Alaska, especially in winter 2015-16. While global warming and equatorial teleconnections are implicated in North Pacific SSTs, the ending of the 2014-16 North Pacific warm event demonstrates the importance of internal, chaotic atmospheric natural variability on weather conditions in any given year. Impacts from global warming on Alaskan Arctic temperature increases and sea-ice and snow loss, with occasional North Pacific support, are projected to continue to propagate through the marine ecosystem in the foreseeable future. The ecological and societal consequences of such changes show a radical departure from the current Arctic environment.

  4. Insect-induced tree mortality of boreal forests in eastern Canada under a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiongqing; Lei, Yuancai; Ma, Zhihai; Kneeshaw, Dan; Peng, Changhui

    2014-06-01

    Forest insects are major disturbances that induce tree mortality in eastern coniferous (or fir-spruce) forests in eastern North America. The spruce budworm (SBW) (Choristoneura fumiferana [Clemens]) is the most devastating insect causing tree mortality. However, the relative importance of insect-caused mortality versus tree mortality caused by other agents and how this relationship will change with climate change is not known. Based on permanent sample plots across eastern Canada, we combined a logistic model with a negative model to estimate tree mortality. The results showed that tree mortality increased mainly due to forest insects. The mean difference in annual tree mortality between plots disturbed by insects and those without insect disturbance was 0.0680 per year (P eastern Canada but that tree mortality induced by insect outbreaks will decrease in eastern Canada under warming climate.

  5. Trends in land surface phenology and atmospheric CO2 seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonsamo, A.; Chen, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Northern terrestrial ecosystems have shown global warming-induced advances in start, delays in end, and thus increased lengths of growing season and gross photosynthesis in recent decades. The tradeoffs between seasonal dynamics of two opposing fluxes, CO2 uptake through photosynthesis and release through respiration, determine the influence of the terrestrial ecosystems on the atmospheric CO2 concentration and 13C/12C isotope ratio seasonality. Atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality is controlled by vegetation phenology, but is not identical because growth will typically commence some time before and terminate some time after the net carbon exchange changes sign in spring and autumn, respectively. Here, we use 34-year satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observations to determine how changes in vegetation productivity and phenology affect both the atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality. Differences and similarities in recent trends of CO2 and 13C/12C seasonality and vegetation phenology will be discussed. Furthermore, we use the NDVI observations, and atmospheric CO2 and 13C/12C data to show the trends and variability of the timing of peak season plant activity. Preliminary results show that the peak season plant activity of the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical terrestrial ecosystems is shifting towards spring, largely in response to the warming-induced advance of the start of growing season. Besides, the spring-ward shift of the peak plant activity is contributing the most to the increasing peak season productivity. In other words, earlier start of growing season is highly linked to earlier arrival of peak of season and higher NDVI. Changes in the timing of peak season plant activity are expected to disrupt the synchrony of biotic interaction and exert strong biophysical feedbacks on climate by modifying the surface albedo and energy budget.

  6. Water runoff vs modern climatic warming in mountainous cryolithic zone in North-East Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotov, V. E.; Glotova, L. P.

    2018-01-01

    The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some

  7. Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks Pries, Caitlin E; van Logtestijn, Richard S P; Schuur, Edward A G; Natali, Susan M; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Aerts, Rien; Dorrepaal, Ellen

    2015-12-01

    Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (permafrost ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, Kerry H. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States); Vizy, Edward [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2016-02-08

    The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understanding of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.

  9. Loneliness, health and mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, J; Larsen, E R; Mattisson, C

    2017-01-01

    Aims.: Literature suggests an association between loneliness and mortality for both males and females. Yet, the linkage of loneliness to mortality is not thoroughly examined, and need to be replicated with a long follow-up time. This study assessed the association between loneliness and mortality...... not been previously reported. If replicated, our results indicate that loneliness may have differential physical implications in some subgroups. Future studies are needed to further investigate the influence of gender on the relationship....

  10. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  11. Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Peter B; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Wei, Xiaorong; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A

    2016-03-31

    Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.

  12. Using isotopes for global warming observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Namata, K.

    2002-01-01

    This paper, based on a literature review, discusses the main aspects of using isotopic techniques to obtain information about global warming. The rapid increase concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) in the atmosphere will result in global warming by the greenhouse effect, and the isotopic techniques constitute an efficient tool to explain this complex environmental phenomenon. (author)

  13. Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

    2013-01-01

    Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

  14. Strategies for mitigation of global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Niels I

    2009-01-01

    The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed.......The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed....

  15. Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Bill

    1994-01-01

    A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

  16. Global Warming: Lessons from Ozone Depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    2010-01-01