WorldWideScience

Sample records for warm season convective

  1. An Update to the Warm-Season Convective Wind Climatology of KSC/CCAFS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupo, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    Total of 1100 convective events in the 17-year warm-season climatology at KSC/CCAFS. July and August typically are the peak of convective events, May being the minimum. Warning and non-warning level convective winds are more likely to occur in the late afternoon (1900-2000Z). Southwesterly flow regimes and wind directions produce the strongest winds. Storms moving from southwesterly direction tend to produce more warning level winds than those moving from the northerly and easterly directions.

  2. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as

  3. Spatial and temporal characteristics of warm season convection over Pearl River Delta region, China, based on 3 years of operational radar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xingchao; Zhao, Kun; Xue, Ming

    2014-11-01

    This study examines the temporal and spatial characteristics and distributions of convection over the Pearl River Delta region of Guangzhou, China, during the May-September warm season, using, for the first time for such a purpose, 3 years of operational Doppler radar data in the region. Results show that convective features occur most frequently along the southern coast and the windward slope of the eastern mountainous area of Pearl River Delta, with the highest frequency occurring in June and the lowest in September among the 5 months. The spatial frequency distribution pattern also roughly matches the accumulated precipitation pattern. The occurrence of convection in this region also exhibits strong diurnal cycles. During May and June, the diurnal distribution is bimodal, with the maximum frequency occurring in the early afternoon and a secondary peak occurring between midnight and early morning. The secondary peak is much weaker in July, August, and September. Convection near the coast is found to occur preferentially on days when a southerly low-level jet (LLJ) exists, especially during the Meiyu season. Warm, moist, and unstable air is transported from the ocean to land by LLJs on these days, and the lifting along the coast by convergence induced by differential surface friction between the land and ocean is believed to be the primary cause for the high frequency along the coast. In contrast, the high frequency over mountainous area is believed to be due to orographic lifting of generally southerly flows during the warm season.

  4. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

    2017-01-01

    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  5. Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

    2008-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

  6. Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medlin, Jeffrey M.; Wood, Lance; Zavodsky, Brad; Case, Jon; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The initiation of deep convection during the warm season is a forecast challenge in the relative high instability and low wind shear environment of the U.S. Deep South. Despite improved knowledge of the character of well known mesoscale features such as local sea-, bay- and land-breezes, observations show the evolution of these features fall well short in fully describing the location of first initiates. A joint collaborative modeling effort among the NWS offices in Mobile, AL, and Houston, TX, and NASA s Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center was undertaken during the 2012 warm season to examine the impact of certain NASA produced products on the Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System. The NASA products were: a 4-km Land Information System data, a 1-km sea surface temperature analysis, and a 4-km greenness vegetation fraction analysis. Similar domains were established over the southeast Texas and Alabama coastlines, each with a 9 km outer grid spacing and a 3 km inner nest spacing. The model was run at each NWS office once per day out to 24 hours from 0600 UTC, using the NCEP Global Forecast System for initial and boundary conditions. Control runs without the NASA products were made at the NASA SPoRT Center. The NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package was used to evaluate both the forecast timing and location of the first initiates, with a focus on the impacts of the NASA products on the model forecasts. Select case studies will be presented to highlight the influence of the products.

  7. Warm-season severe wind events in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatzen, Christoph

    2013-04-01

    A 15-year data set of wind measurements was analyzed with regard to warm season severe wind gusts in Germany. For April to September of the years 1997 to 2011, 1035 wind measurements of 26 m/s or greater were found. These wind reports were associated with 268 wind events. In total, 252 convective wind events contributed to 837 (81%) of the wind reports, 16 non-convective synoptic-scale wind events contributed to 198 reports (19%). Severe wind events were found with synoptic situations characterized by rather strong mid-level flow and advancing mid-level troughs. Severe convective wind events were analyzed using radar images and classified with respect to the observed radar structure. The most important convective mode was squall lines that were associated with one third of all severe wind gusts, followed by groups, bow echo complexes, and bow echoes. Supercells and cells were not associated with many wind reports. The low contribution of isolated cells indicates that rather large-scale forcing by synoptic-scale features like fronts is important for German severe wind events. Bow echoes were found to be present for 58% of all wind reports. The movement speed of bow echoes indicated a large variation with a maximum speed of 33 m/s. Extreme wind events as well as events with more than 15 wind reports were found to be related to higher movement speeds. Concentrating on the most intense events, derechos seem to be very important to the warm season wind threat in Germany. Convective events with a path length of more than 400 km contributed to 36% of all warm-season wind gusts in this data set. Furthermore, eight of nine extreme gusts exceeding 40 m/s were recorded with derecho events.

  8. Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

  9. Physics of greenhouse effect and convection in warm oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, A. K.; Ramanathan, V.

    1994-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) in roughly 50% of the tropical Pacific Ocean is warm enough (SST greater than 300 K) to permit deep convection. This paper examines the effects of deep convection on the climatological mean vertical distributions of water vapor and its greenhouse effect over such warm oceans. The study, which uses a combination of satellite radiation budget observations, atmospheric soundings deployed from ships, and radiation model calculations, also examines the link between SST, vertical distribution of water vapor, and its greenhouse effect in the tropical oceans. Since the focus of the study is on the radiative effects of water vapor, the radiation model calculations do not include the effects of clouds. The data are grouped into nonconvective and convective categories using SST as an index for convective activity. On average, convective regions are more humid, trap significantly more longwave radiation, and emit more radiation to the sea surface. The greenhouse effect in regions of convection operates as per classical ideas, that is, as the SST increases, the atmosphere traps the excess longwave energy emitted by the surface and reradiates it locally back to the ocean surface. The important departure from the classical picture is that the net (up minus down) fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere decrease with an increase in SST; that is, the surface and the surface-troposphere column lose the ability to radiate the excess energy to space. The cause of this super greenhouse effect at the surface is the rapid increase in the lower-troposphere humidity with SST; that of the column is due to a combination of increase in humidity in the entire column and increase in the lapse rate within the lower troposphere. The increase in the vertical distribution of humidity far exceeds that which can be attributed to the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure; that is, the tropospheric relative humidity is larger in convective

  10. Convection anomalies associated with warm eddy at the coastal area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, R.; Wang, D.

    2017-12-01

    A possible correlation between a warm eddy and thunderstorms and convective precipitations are investigated at the coastal area in the northwestern South China Sea. Compared to the climatological mean in August from 2006 to 2013, an extreme enhancement of thunderstorm activities and precipitation rate are identified at the southern offshore area of Hainan island in August 2010 when a strong and long-live warm eddy was observed near the coastline at the same time. The 3 hourly satellite data (TRMM) indicate that the nocturnal convections is strong offshore and that could be responsible for the extreme positive anomalies of thunderstorms and rainfall in August 2010. The TRMM data also show a small reduction of thunderstorm activities and rainfall on the island in the afternoon. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was applied to simulate the change of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation of rainfall rate is comparable with the observation results while there is some difference in the spatial distribution. The WRF simulation successfully captured the strong offshore rainfall and the diurnal variation of rainfall in August 2010. The WRF simulation indicated that the different convergence induced by sea/land breeze could be one essential reason for the adjustment of thunderstorms and rainfall in 2010. The substantial connection between sea/land breeze and upper layer heat content modified by the warm eddy is still on ongoing and will be reported in the future work.

  11. Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B. [Univ. of Kentucky, Lexington, KY (United States). Dept. of Forestry

    1998-12-31

    The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat.

  12. Establishing native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnes, T.G.; Larkin, J.L.; Arnett, M.B.

    1998-01-01

    The authors evaluated various methods of establishing native warm season grasses on two reclaimed Eastern Kentucky mines from 1994--1997. Most current reclamation practices incorporate the use of tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea) and other cool-season grasses/legumes that provide little wildlife habitats. The use of native warm season grasses will likely improve wildlife habitat on reclaimed strip mines. Objectives of this study were to compare the feasibility of establishing these grasses during fall, winter, or spring using a native rangeland seeder or hydroseeding; a fertilizer application at planting; or cold-moist stratification prior to hydroseeding. Vegetative cover, bare ground, species richness, and biomass samples were collected at the end of each growing season. Native warm season grass plantings had higher plant species richness compared to cool-season reclamation mixtures. There was no difference in establishment of native warm season grasses as a result of fertilization or seeding technique. Winter native warm season grass plantings were failures and cold-moist stratification did not increase plant establishment during any season. As a result of a drought during 1997, both cool-season and warm season plantings were failures. Cool-season reclamation mixtures had significantly more vegetative cover and biomass compared to native warm season grass mixtures and the native warm season grass plantings did not meet vegetative cover requirements for bond release. Forbs and legumes that established well included pale purple coneflower (Echinacea pallida), lance-leaf coreopsis (Coreopsis lanceolata), round-headed lespedeza (Lespedeza capitata), partridge pea (Cassia fasiculata), black-eyed susan (Rudbeckia hirta), butterfly milkweed (Asclepias tuberosa), and bergamot (Monarda fistulosa). Results from two demonstration plots next to research plots indicate it is possible to establish native warm season grasses on Eastern Kentucky strip mines for wildlife habitat

  13. The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, Sreekanth T.

    begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

  15. Frequency of Tropical Ocean Deep Convection and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumann, H. H.; Behrangi, A.; Ruzmaikin, A.

    2017-12-01

    The average of 36 CMIP5 models predicts about 3K of warming and a 4.7% increase in precipitation for the tropical oceans with a doubling of the CO2 by the end of this century. For this scenario we evaluate the increase in the frequency of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC) in the tropical oceans. We select only DCC which reach or penetrate the tropopause in the 15 km AIRS footprint. The evaluation is based on Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the current temperatures of the tropical oceans, those predicted by the mean of the CMIP5 models and the PDF of the DCC process. The PDF of the DCC process is derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) between the years 2003 and 2016. During this time the variability due Enso years provided a 1 K p-p change in the mean tropical SST. The key parameter is the SST associated with the onset of the DCC process. This parameter shifts only 0.5 K for each K of warming of the oceans. As a result the frequency of DCC is expected to increases by the end of this century by about 50% above the current frequency.

  16. Performances of some warm-season turfgrasses under ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-09-15

    Sep 15, 2009 ... Main characteristics of mediterranean climate are represented by mild, rainy ... the warm-season turfgrasses with low water use rate and. *Corresponding ..... Lawns and Golf, Sleeping Bear Press, Chelsea, MI. Busey P (2003).

  17. Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

  18. Analysis of warm convective rain events in Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballart, D.; Figuerola, F.; Aran, M.; Rigo, T.

    2009-09-01

    Between the end of September and November, events with high amounts of rainfall are quite common in Catalonia. The high sea surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea near to the Catalan Coast is one of the most important factors that help to the development of this type of storms. Some of these events have particular characteristics: elevated rain rate during short time periods, not very deep convection and low lightning activity. Consequently, the use of remote sensing tools for the surveillance is quite useless or limited. With reference to the high rain efficiency, this is caused by internal mechanisms of the clouds, and also by the air mass where the precipitation structure is developed. As aforementioned, the contribution of the sea to the air mass is very relevant, not only by the increase of the big condensation nuclei, but also by high temperature of the low layers of the atmosphere, where are allowed clouds with 5 or 6 km of particles in liquid phase. In fact, the freezing level into these clouds can be detected by -15ºC. Due to these characteristics, this type of rainy structures can produce high quantities of rainfall in a relatively brief period of time, and, in the case to be quasi-stationary, precipitation values at surface could be very important. From the point of view of remote sensing tools, the cloud nature implies that the different tools and methodologies commonly used for the analysis of heavy rain events are not useful. This is caused by the following features: lightning are rarely observed, the top temperatures of clouds are not cold enough to be enhanced in the satellite imagery, and, finally, reflectivity radar values are lower than other heavy rain cases. The third point to take into account is the vulnerability of the affected areas. An elevated percentage of the Catalan population lives in the coastal region. In the central coast of Catalonia, the urban areas are surrounded by a not very high mountain range with small basins and

  19. Small mammal use of native warm-season and non-native cool-season grass forage fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan L Klimstra,; Christopher E Moorman,; Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Craig A Harper,

    2015-01-01

    Recent emphasis has been put on establishing native warm-season grasses for forage production because it is thought native warm-season grasses provide higher quality wildlife habitat than do non-native cool-season grasses. However, it is not clear whether native warm-season grass fields provide better resources for small mammals than currently are available in non-native cool-season grass forage production fields. We developed a hierarchical spatially explicit capture-recapture model to compare abundance of hispid cotton rats (Sigmodon hispidus), white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), and house mice (Mus musculus) among 4 hayed non-native cool-season grass fields, 4 hayed native warm-season grass fields, and 4 native warm-season grass-forb ("wildlife") fields managed for wildlife during 2 summer trapping periods in 2009 and 2010 of the western piedmont of North Carolina, USA. Cotton rat abundance estimates were greater in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields and greater in native warm-season grass fields than in non-native cool-season grass fields. Abundances of white-footed mouse and house mouse populations were lower in wildlife fields than in native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields, but the abundances were not different between the native warm-season grass and non-native cool-season grass fields. Lack of cover following haying in non-native cool-season grass and native warm-season grass fields likely was the key factor limiting small mammal abundance, especially cotton rats, in forage fields. Retention of vegetation structure in managed forage production systems, either by alternately resting cool-season and warm-season grass forage fields or by leaving unharvested field borders, should provide refugia for small mammals during haying events.

  20. Responses of Seasonal Precipitation Intensity to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Chia-Wei; Lo, Min-Hui; Chou, Chia

    2016-04-01

    Under global warming, the water vapor increases with rising temperature at the rate of 7%/K. Most previous studies focus on the spatial differences of precipitation and suggest that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. Our recent studies show a temporal disparity of global precipitation, which the wet season becomes wetter and dry season becomes drier; therefore, the annual range increases. However, such changes in the annual range are not homogeneous globally, and in fact, the drier trend over the ocean is much larger than that over the land, where the dry season does not become drier. Such precipitation change over land is likely because of decreased omega at 500hPa (more upward motion) in the reanalysis datasets from 1980 to 2013. The trends of vertical velocity and moist static energy profile over the increased precipitation regions become more unstable. The instability is most likely attributed to the change in specific humility below 400hPa. Further, we will use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate whether the precipitation responses in dry season are different between the ocean and land under global warming.

  1. On the shortening of Indian summer monsoon season in a warming scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeerali, C. T.; Ajayamohan, R. S.

    2018-03-01

    Assessing the future projections of the length of rainy season (LRS) has paramount societal impact considering its potential to alter the seasonal mean rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. Here, we explored the projections of LRS using both historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5). RCP8.5 simulations project shortening of the LRS of Indian summer monsoon by altering the timing of onset and withdrawal dates. Most CMIP5 RCP8.5 model simulations indicate a faster warming rate over the western tropical Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the Indian Ocean. It is found that the pronounced western Indian Ocean warming and associated increase in convection results in warmer upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean compared to the Indian subcontinent, reducing the meridional gradient in upper tropospheric temperature (UTT) over the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) domain. The weakening of the meridional gradient in UTT induces weakening of easterly vertical wind shear over the ASM domain during first and last phase of monsoon, facilitate delayed (advanced) monsoon onset (withdrawal) dates, ensues the shortening of LRS of the Indian summer monsoon in a warming scenario.

  2. Use of local convective and radiant cooling at warm environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Krejcirikova, Barbora; Kaczmarczyk, Jan

    2012-01-01

    The effect of four local cooling devices (convective, radiant and combined) on SBS symptoms reported by 24 subjects at 28 ˚C and 50% RH was studied. The devices studied were: (1) desk cooling fan, (2) personalized ventilation providing clean air, (3) two radiant panels and (4) two radiant panels...... and with radiant panel with attached fans, which also helped people to feel less fatigue. The SBS symptoms increased the most when the cooling fan, generating movement of polluted room air, was used....

  3. Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

    2015-06-01

    Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

  4. Why does tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) increase with warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Jacob T.; Romps, David M.

    2015-12-01

    Recent work has produced a theory for tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) that highlights the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling of the atmosphere's saturation deficit as a driver of increases in CAPE with warming. Here we test this so-called "zero-buoyancy" theory for CAPE by modulating the saturation deficit of cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium in two ways: changing the sea surface temperature (SST) and changing the environmental relative humidity (RH). For earthlike and warmer SSTs, undilute parcel buoyancy in the lower troposphere is insensitive to increasing SST because of a countervailing CC scaling that balances the increase in the saturation deficit; however, buoyancy increases dramatically with SST in the upper troposphere. Conversely, in the RH experiment, undilute buoyancy throughout the troposphere increases monotonically with decreasing RH. We show that the zero-buoyancy theory successfully predicts these contrasting behaviors, building confidence that it describes the fundamental physics of CAPE and its response to warming.

  5. Warm season grass establishment (in one year without the weeds)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.

    1998-01-01

    Native warm season grasses, big bluestem and indian, were established by the broadcast method on a relatively large area (130 acres) of reclaimed coal surface-mined land in Perry County, Illinois. Existing vegetation was controlled using two quarts of Round-Up and 12 ounces of Plateau per acre the first week of May. Five pounds of pure live seed of both species were applied by airflow using 100 pounds per acre of 0-46-0 and 100 pounds per acre of 0-0-60, primarily to carry the seed. The surface was cultipacked to insure good seed to soil contact. Planting was initiated and completed the last week of June. An estimated 95% to 100% ground cover was evident by mid to late August. By mid September, numerous big blue stem flower/seed stalks were noticeable

  6. Comparative growth analysis of cool- and warm-season grasses in a cool-temperate environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belesky, D.P.; Fedders, J.M.

    1995-01-01

    Using both cool-season (C3) and warm-season (C4) species is a viable means of optimizing herbage productivity over varying climatic conditions in temperate environments. Despite well-documented differences in water, N, and radiation use, no consistent evidence demonstrates productivity differences among C3 and C4 perennial grass species under identical management. A field study was conducted to determine relative growth rates (RGR), nitrogen productivity (NP), and mean radiation productivity (RP) (dry matter production as a function of incident radiation) of cool- and warm-season grasses managed identically. Results were used to identify management practices thd could lead to optimal productivity in combinations or mixtures of cool- and warm-season grasses. Dry matter yields of warm-season grasses equaled or surpassed those of cool-season grasses, despite a 40% shorter growth interval. Certain cool- and warm-season grasses appear to be suitable for use in mixtures, based on distribution of herbage production; however, actual compatibility may be altered by defoliation management. Relative growth rates varied among years and were about 40% lower for canopies clipped to a 10-cm residue height each time 20-cm of growth accumulated compared with other treatments. The RGR of warm-season grasses was twice that of cool-season grasses Nitrogen productivity (g DM g-1 N d -1) and mean radiation productivity (g DM MJ-1) for warm-season grasses was also more than twice that of cool-season grasses. Radiation productivity of cool-season grasses was dependent on N, while this was not always the case for warm-season grasses. The superior production capability of certain warm-season compared with cool-season grasses in a cool-temperate environment can be sustained under a range of defoliation treatments and demonstrates suitability for use in frequently defoliated situations

  7. How do changes in warm-phase microphysics affect deep convective clouds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qian; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit; Heiblum, Reuven H.; Dagan, Guy; Pinto, Lital

    2017-08-01

    Understanding aerosol effects on deep convective clouds and the derived effects on the radiation budget and rain patterns can largely contribute to estimations of climate uncertainties. The challenge is difficult in part because key microphysical processes in the mixed and cold phases are still not well understood. For deep convective clouds with a warm base, understanding aerosol effects on the warm processes is extremely important as they set the initial and boundary conditions for the cold processes. Therefore, the focus of this study is the warm phase, which can be better resolved. The main question is: How do aerosol-derived changes in the warm phase affect the properties of deep convective cloud systems? To explore this question, we used a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with spectral bin microphysics to simulate a deep convective cloud system over the Marshall Islands during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). The model results were validated against observations, showing similarities in the vertical profile of radar reflectivity and the surface rain rate. Simulations with larger aerosol loading resulted in a larger total cloud mass, a larger cloud fraction in the upper levels, and a larger frequency of strong updrafts and rain rates. Enlarged mass both below and above the zero temperature level (ZTL) contributed to the increase in cloud total mass (water and ice) in the polluted runs. Increased condensation efficiency of cloud droplets governed the gain in mass below the ZTL, while both enhanced condensational and depositional growth led to increased mass above it. The enhanced mass loading above the ZTL acted to reduce the cloud buoyancy, while the thermal buoyancy (driven by the enhanced latent heat release) increased in the polluted runs. The overall effect showed an increased upward transport (across the ZTL) of liquid water driven by both larger updrafts and larger droplet mobility. These aerosol effects were reflected in the larger ratio

  8. How do changes in warm-phase microphysics affect deep convective clouds?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Chen

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding aerosol effects on deep convective clouds and the derived effects on the radiation budget and rain patterns can largely contribute to estimations of climate uncertainties. The challenge is difficult in part because key microphysical processes in the mixed and cold phases are still not well understood. For deep convective clouds with a warm base, understanding aerosol effects on the warm processes is extremely important as they set the initial and boundary conditions for the cold processes. Therefore, the focus of this study is the warm phase, which can be better resolved. The main question is: How do aerosol-derived changes in the warm phase affect the properties of deep convective cloud systems? To explore this question, we used a weather research and forecasting (WRF model with spectral bin microphysics to simulate a deep convective cloud system over the Marshall Islands during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX. The model results were validated against observations, showing similarities in the vertical profile of radar reflectivity and the surface rain rate. Simulations with larger aerosol loading resulted in a larger total cloud mass, a larger cloud fraction in the upper levels, and a larger frequency of strong updrafts and rain rates. Enlarged mass both below and above the zero temperature level (ZTL contributed to the increase in cloud total mass (water and ice in the polluted runs. Increased condensation efficiency of cloud droplets governed the gain in mass below the ZTL, while both enhanced condensational and depositional growth led to increased mass above it. The enhanced mass loading above the ZTL acted to reduce the cloud buoyancy, while the thermal buoyancy (driven by the enhanced latent heat release increased in the polluted runs. The overall effect showed an increased upward transport (across the ZTL of liquid water driven by both larger updrafts and larger droplet mobility. These aerosol effects were reflected in the

  9. Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenshi Hibino

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

  10. Nitrogen Fertilization Effect on Phosphorus Remediation Potential of Three Perennial Warm-Season Forages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Newman, Y.C.; Agyin-Birikorang, S.; Adjei, M.B.; Scholberg, J.M.S.; Silveira, M.L.; Vendramini, J.M.B.; Rechcigl, J.E.; Sollenberger, L.E.

    2009-01-01

    Warm-season C-4 grasses are capable of removing excess soil nutrients because of their high Yield potential and nutrient uptake efficiency. Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge), limpograss [Hemarthria altissima (Poir.) Stapf& Hubb], and stargrass (Cynodon nlemfuensis Vanderyst), three commonly

  11. The responses of microbial temperature relationships to seasonal change and winter warming in a temperate grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgander, Johanna; Olsson, Pål Axel; Rousk, Johannes

    2018-01-18

    Microorganisms dominate the decomposition of organic matter and their activities are strongly influenced by temperature. As the carbon (C) flux from soil to the atmosphere due to microbial activity is substantial, understanding temperature relationships of microbial processes is critical. It has been shown that microbial temperature relationships in soil correlate with the climate, and microorganisms in field experiments become more warm-tolerant in response to chronic warming. It is also known that microbial temperature relationships reflect the seasons in aquatic ecosystems, but to date this has not been investigated in soil. Although climate change predictions suggest that temperatures will be mostly affected during winter in temperate ecosystems, no assessments exist of the responses of microbial temperature relationships to winter warming. We investigated the responses of the temperature relationships of bacterial growth, fungal growth, and respiration in a temperate grassland to seasonal change, and to 2 years' winter warming. The warming treatments increased winter soil temperatures by 5-6°C, corresponding to 3°C warming of the mean annual temperature. Microbial temperature relationships and temperature sensitivities (Q 10 ) could be accurately established, but did not respond to winter warming or to seasonal temperature change, despite significant shifts in the microbial community structure. The lack of response to winter warming that we demonstrate, and the strong response to chronic warming treatments previously shown, together suggest that it is the peak annual soil temperature that influences the microbial temperature relationships, and that temperatures during colder seasons will have little impact. Thus, mean annual temperatures are poor predictors for microbial temperature relationships. Instead, the intensity of summer heat-spells in temperate systems is likely to shape the microbial temperature relationships that govern the soil-atmosphere C

  12. Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

  13. Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

    2017-12-01

    Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

  14. Organized convection over southwest peninsular India during the pre-monsoon season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreelekha, P. N.; Babu, C. A.

    2018-03-01

    The paper addresses observational aspects of widespread rain associated with the organized convection that forms over the southwest peninsular India during the pre-monsoon season. The evolution of the cloud band over the equatorial region, its northward propagation, development of cross equatorial flow near the Somalia coast, and appearance of equatorial westerly wind resemble closely to that of the monsoon organized convection. Low-level convergence, cyclonic vorticity, and ascending motion are other major characteristics of the cloud bands associated with the pre-monsoon organized convection which exhibits similarity with that of monsoon. The ascending motion plays vital role on the formation of cloud band that produces widespread rainfall persisting for more than a week. The vertical shear of meridional winds is found to co-exist with precipitation over the Arabian Sea off the southwest peninsular India. The velocity potential values derived from the winds at 850 and 200 hPa levels confirm the rising motion on the basis of low-level convergence and upper level divergence. Also, shifting of ascending limb of the local Hadley circulation to the north of the equator is observed during the days of the presence of organized convection over the southwest peninsular region. Noticeable shift in the Walker circulation rising limb is also identified during the same time.

  15. Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flaounas, Emmanouil; Kotroni, Vassiliki; Lagouvardos, Konstantinos; Gray, Suzanne L.; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones' heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis data, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cyclone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterranean rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones' centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-h accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and processes that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set

  16. Seasonal/Interannual Variations of Carbon Sequestration and Carbon Emission in a Warm-Season Perennial Grassland

    OpenAIRE

    Deepa Dhital; Tomoharu Inoue; Hiroshi Koizumi

    2014-01-01

    Carbon sequestration and carbon emission are processes of ecosystem carbon cycling that can be affected while land area converted to grassland resulting in increased soil carbon storage and below-ground respiration. Discerning the importance of carbon cycle in grassland, we aimed to estimate carbon sequestration in photosynthesis and carbon emission in respiration from soil, root, and microbes, for four consecutive years (2007–2010) in a warm-season perennial grassland, Japan. Soil carbon emi...

  17. Annual warm-season grasses vary for forage yield, quality, and competitiveness with weeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warm-season annual grasses may be suitable as herbicide-free forage crops. A two-year field study was conducted to determine whether tillage system and nitrogen (N) fertilizer application method influenced crop and weed biomass, water use, water use efficiency (WUE), and forage quality of three war...

  18. Warm season chloride concentrations in stream habitats of freshwater mussel species at risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Todd, Aaron K.; Kaltenecker, M. Georgina

    2012-01-01

    Warm season (May–October) chloride concentrations were assessed in stream habitats of freshwater mussel species at risk in southern Ontario, Canada. Significant increases in concentrations were observed at 96% of 24 long-term (1975–2009) monitoring sites. Concentrations were described as a function of road density indicating an anthropogenic source of chloride. Linear regression showed that 36% of the variation of concentrations was explained by road salt use by the provincial transportation ministry. Results suggest that long-term road salt use and retention is contributing to a gradual increase in baseline chloride concentrations in at risk mussel habitats. Exposure of sensitive mussel larvae (glochidia) to increasing chloride concentrations may affect recruitment to at risk mussel populations. - Highlights: ► Warm season chloride concentrations were assessed in habitats of mussel species at risk. ► Concentrations increased significantly at 96% of 24 long-term monitoring sites. ► Concentrations increased with increases in road density and road salt use. ► Retention of road salt likely contributed to elevated warm season concentrations. ► Glochidia exposure to increasing concentrations may affect mussel reproduction. - Warm season chloride concentrations increased in southern Ontario streams with road salt use, such that reproduction of freshwater mussel species at risk may be affected.

  19. Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koren, I.; Remer, L. A.; Altaratz, O.; Martins, J. V.; Davidi, A.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

  20. Aerosol-induced changes of convective cloud anvils produce strong climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Koren

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm−2. Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing.

    We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvil clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming at top-of-atmosphere.

    Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (τ, cloud height (Z forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene.

    Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds, increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

  1. Seasonal body size reductions with warming covary with major body size gradients in arthropod species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horne, Curtis R.; Hirst, Andrew G.; Atkinson, David

    2017-01-01

    experience different developmental conditions. Yet, unlike other size patterns, these common seasonal temperature–size gradients have never been collectively analysed. We undertake the largest analysis to date of seasonal temperature-size gradients in multivoltine arthropods, including 102 aquatic...... and terrestrial species from 71 global locations. Adult size declines in warmer seasons in 86% of the species examined. Aquatic species show approximately 2.5-fold greater reduction in size per °C of warming than terrestrial species, supporting the hypothesis that greater oxygen limitation in water than in air...

  2. Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

    2016-12-02

    Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

  3. Seasonal timing in a warming world : Plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salis, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the

  4. The effect of aerosol-derived changes in the warm phase on the properties of deep convective clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qian; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit; Heiblum, Reuven; Dagan, Guy

    2017-04-01

    The aerosol impact on deep convective clouds starts in an increased number of cloud droplets in higher aerosol loading environment. This change drives many others, like enhanced condensational growth, delay in collision-coalescence and others. Since the warm processes serve as the initial and boundary conditions for the mixed and cold-phase processes in deep clouds, it is highly important to understand the aerosol effect on them. The weather research and forecasting model (WRF) with spectral bin microphysics was used to study a deep convective system over the Marshall Islands, during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). Three simulations were conducted with aerosol concentrations of 100, 500 and 2000 cm-3, to reflect clean, semipolluted, and polluted conditions. The results of the clean run agreed well with the radar profiles and rain rate observations. The more polluted simulations resulted in larger total cloud mass, larger upper level cloud fraction and rain rates. There was an increased mass both below and above the zero temperature level. It indicates of more efficient growth processes both below and above the zero level. In addition the polluted runs showed an increased upward transport (across the zero level) of liquid water due to both stronger updrafts and larger droplet mobility. In this work we discuss the transport of cloud mass crossing the zero temperature level (in both directions) in order to gain a process level understanding of how aerosol effects on the warm processes affect the macro- and micro-properties of deep convective clouds.

  5. Seasonal timing in a warming world : plasticity of seasonal timing of growth and reproduction

    OpenAIRE

    Salis, L.

    2015-01-01

    In seasonal environments the timing of various biological processes is crucial for growth, survival and reproductive success of an individual. Nowadays, rapid large-scale climate change is altering species’ seasonal timing (phenology) in many eco¬systems. In this thesis Lucia Salis focuses on the study of seasonal timing in the food chain of the oak-winter moth-great tit. As temperature increased over the last decades, both phenologies of the host plant, the oak, and the herbivorous insect, t...

  6. Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

  7. Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Liang Xu

    Full Text Available Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

  8. Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

    2012-01-01

    Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

  9. Human response to local convective and radiant cooling in a warm environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Krejcirikova, Barbora; Kaczmarczyk, Jan

    2013-01-01

    The response of 24 human subjects to local convective cooling, radiant cooling, and combined radiant and convective cooling was studied at 28°C and 50% relative humidity. The local cooling devices used were (1) a tabletop cooling fan, (2) personalized ventilation providing a stream of clean air, (3...

  10. The impact of global warming on seasonality of ocean primary production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Henson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle (i.e. phenology of oceanic primary production (PP is expected to change in response to climate warming. Here, we use output from 6 global biogeochemical models to examine the response in the seasonal amplitude of PP and timing of peak PP to the IPCC AR5 warming scenario. We also investigate whether trends in PP phenology may be more rapidly detectable than trends in annual mean PP. The seasonal amplitude of PP decreases by an average of 1–2% per year by 2100 in most biomes, with the exception of the Arctic which sees an increase of ~1% per year. This is accompanied by an advance in the timing of peak PP by ~0.5–1 months by 2100 over much of the globe, and particularly pronounced in the Arctic. These changes are driven by an increase in seasonal amplitude of sea surface temperature (where the maxima get hotter faster than the minima and a decrease in the seasonal amplitude of the mixed layer depth and surface nitrate concentration. Our results indicate a transformation of currently strongly seasonal (bloom forming regions, typically found at high latitudes, into weakly seasonal (non-bloom regions, characteristic of contemporary subtropical conditions. On average, 36 yr of data are needed to detect a climate-change-driven trend in the seasonal amplitude of PP, compared to 32 yr for mean annual PP. Monthly resolution model output is found to be inadequate for resolving phenological changes. We conclude that analysis of phytoplankton seasonality is not necessarily a shortcut to detecting climate change impacts on ocean productivity.

  11. Chronic environmental stress enhances tolerance to seasonal gradual warming in marine mussels.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionan Marigómez

    Full Text Available In global climate change scenarios, seawater warming acts in concert with multiple stress sources, which may enhance the susceptibility of marine biota to thermal stress. Here, the responsiveness to seasonal gradual warming was investigated in temperate mussels from a chronically stressed population in comparison with a healthy one. Stressed and healthy mussels were subjected to gradual temperature elevation for 8 days (1°C per day; fall: 16-24°C, winter: 12-20°C, summer: 20-28°C and kept at elevated temperature for 3 weeks. Healthy mussels experienced thermal stress and entered the time-limited survival period in the fall, became acclimated in winter and exhibited sublethal damage in summer. In stressed mussels, thermal stress and subsequent health deterioration were elicited in the fall but no transition into the critical period of time-limited survival was observed. Stressed mussels did not become acclimated to 20°C in winter, when they experienced low-to-moderate thermal stress, and did not experience sublethal damage at 28°C in summer, showing instead signs of metabolic rate depression. Overall, although the thermal threshold was lowered in chronically stressed mussels, they exhibited enhanced tolerance to seasonal gradual warming, especially in summer. These results challenge current assumptions on the susceptibility of marine biota to the interactive effects of seawater warming and pollution.

  12. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  13. Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damyanov, Nikolay N; Mysak, Lawrence A; Damon Matthews, H

    2012-01-01

    Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada. (letter)

  14. Incorporating residual temperature and specific humidity in predicting weather-dependent warm-season electricity consumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Huade; Beecham, Simon; Xu, Hanqiu; Ingleton, Greg

    2017-02-01

    Climate warming and increasing variability challenges the electricity supply in warm seasons. A good quantitative representation of the relationship between warm-season electricity consumption and weather condition provides necessary information for long-term electricity planning and short-term electricity management. In this study, an extended version of cooling degree days (ECDD) is proposed for better characterisation of this relationship. The ECDD includes temperature, residual temperature and specific humidity effects. The residual temperature is introduced for the first time to reflect the building thermal inertia effect on electricity consumption. The study is based on the electricity consumption data of four multiple-street city blocks and three office buildings. It is found that the residual temperature effect is about 20% of the current-day temperature effect at the block scale, and increases with a large variation at the building scale. Investigation of this residual temperature effect provides insight to the influence of building designs and structures on electricity consumption. The specific humidity effect appears to be more important at the building scale than at the block scale. A building with high energy performance does not necessarily have low specific humidity dependence. The new ECDD better reflects the weather dependence of electricity consumption than the conventional CDD method.

  15. Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

    2012-03-01

    Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

  16. The influence of the bottom cold water on the seasonal variability of the Tsushima warm current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isobe, Atsuhiko

    1995-06-01

    Previous studies have concluded that the volume transport and surface current velocity of the Tsushima Warm Current are at a maximum between summer and autumn and at a minimum between winter and spring. Each study has obtained these results indirectly, using the sea level difference across the Tsushima-Korea Strait or dynamic calculation. Numerical experiments are performed to estimate the seasonal variability in the sea level difference caused by the Bottom Cold Water (BCW), which intrudes from the Sea of Japan along the Korean coast in the bottom layer. These experiments basically treat the baroclinic adjustment problem of the BCW in a rectangular cross section perpendicular to the axis (northeast-southwest direction) of the Tsushima-Korea Strait. It is a five-layer model for summer and a two-layer model for winter. The initial conditions and parameters in models are chosen so as to match the calculated velocity-density fields with the observed velocity-density fields [Isobe A., S. Tawara, A. Kaneko and M. Kawano (1994) Continental Shelf Research, 14, 23-35.]. Consequently, the experiments prove that the observed seasonal variability in the sea level difference across the Tsushima-Korea Strait largely contains the baroclinic motion caused by the BCW. It should be noted that the position of the BCW also plays an important role in producing a considerable seasonal variation of the sea level difference. It is critical to remove the baroclinic contribution from the observed sea level differences across the Tsushima-Korea Strait in order to estimate the seasonal variation in the volume transport of the Tsushima Warm Current.

  17. Disruption of the European climate seasonal clock in a warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattiaux, J.; Cassou, C.

    2015-12-01

    Strength and inland penetration of the oceanic westerly flow over Europe control a large part of the temperature variability over most of the continent. Reduced westerlies, linked to high-pressure anomalies over Scandinavia, induce cold conditions in winter and warm conditions in summer. Here we propose to define the onset of these two seasons as the calendar day where the daily circulation/temperature relationship over Western Europe switches sign. According to this meteorologically-based metrics assessed from several observational datasets, we provide robust evidence for an earlier summer onset by ~10 days between the 1960s and 2000s. Results from model ensemble simulations dedicated to detection-attribution show that this calendar advance is incompatible with the sole internal climate variability and can be attributed to anthropogenic forcings. Late winter snow disappearance over Eastern Europe affects cold air intrusion to the West when easterlies blow, and is mainly responsible for the observed present-day and near-future summer advance. Our findings agree with phenological-based trends (earlier spring events) reported for many living species over Europe, for which they provide a novel dynamical interpretation beyond the traditionally evoked global warming effect. Based on business-as-usual scenario, a seasonal shift of ~25 days is expected by 2100 for summer onset, while no clear signal arises for winter onset.

  18. Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virts, Katrina S.; Houze, Robert A.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal and intraseasonal differences in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South Asia are examined using A-Train satellites, a ground-based lightning network, and reanalysis fields. Pre-monsoon (April-May) MCSs occur primarily over Bangladesh and the eastern Bay of Bengal. During the monsoon (June-September), small MCSs occur over the Meghalaya Plateau and northeast Himalayan notch, while large and connected MCSs are most widespread over the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon MCSs produce less lightning and exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil reflectivity structures in CloudSat observations than do pre-monsoon MCSs. During the monsoon season, Bay of Bengal and Meghalaya Plateau MCSs vary with the 30-60 day northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation, while northeast Himalayan notch MCSs are associated with weak large-scale anomalies but locally enhanced CAPE. During intraseasonal active periods, a zone of enhanced large and connected MCSs, precipitation, and lightning extends from the northeastern Arabian Sea southeast over India and the Bay of Bengal, flanked by suppressed anomalies. Spatial variability is observed within this enhancement zone: lightning is most enhanced where MCSs are less enhanced, and vice versa. Reanalysis composites indicate that Bay of Bengal MCSs are associated with monsoon depressions, which are frequent during active monsoon periods, while Meghalaya Plateau MCSs are most frequent at the end of break periods, as anomalous southwesterly winds strengthen moist advection toward the terrain. Over both regions, MCSs exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil regions and less lightning when the large-scale environment is moister, and vice versa.

  19. Grassland bird productivity in warm season grass fields in southwest Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byers, Carolyn M.; Ribic, Christine; Sample, David W.; Dadisman, John D.; Guttery, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Surrogate grasslands established through federal set-aside programs, such as U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), provide important habitat for grassland birds. Warm season grass CRP fields as a group have the potential for providing a continuum of habitat structure for breeding birds, depending on how the fields are managed and their floristic composition. We studied the nesting activity of four obligate grassland bird species, Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus), Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna), Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), and Henslow's Sparrow (A. henslowii), in relation to vegetative composition and fire management in warm season CRP fields in southwest Wisconsin during 2009–2011. Intraspecific variation in apparent nest density was related to the number of years since the field was burned. Apparent Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest in the breeding season immediately following spring burns, apparent Henslow's Sparrow nest density was highest 1 y post burn, and apparent Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark nest densities were higher in post fire years one to three. Grasshopper Sparrow nest density was highest on sites with more diverse vegetation, specifically prairie forbs, and on sites with shorter less dense vegetation. Bobolink, Eastern Meadowlark, and Henslow's Sparrow apparent nest densities were higher on sites with deeper litter; litter was the vegetative component that was most affected by spring burns. Overall nest success was 0.487 for Bobolink (22 d nesting period), 0.478 for Eastern Meadowlark (25 d nesting period), 0.507 for Grasshopper Sparrow (22 d nesting period), and 0.151 for Henslow's Sparrow (21 d nesting period). The major nest predators were grassland-associated species: thirteen-lined ground squirrel (Ictidomys tridecemlineatus), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis), milk snake (Lampropeltis triangulum), American badger (Taxidea taxus), and western fox snake (Elaphe vulpina). Overall

  20. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  1. The role of mesoscale convective systems in the diurnal cycle of rainfall and its seasonality over sub-Saharan Northern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Weiran; Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward K.

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the role of MCSs in the total rainfall distribution as a function of season from a climatological perspective (1998-2014) over sub-Saharan northern Africa and examines how the diurnal cycle of rainfall changes with season. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to evaluate the climatology. The percentages of the full TRMM precipitation delivered by MCSs have meridional structures in spring, fall and winter, ranging from 0 to 80% across sub-Saharan northern Africa, while the percentages are homogenous in summer (> 80%). The diurnal cycles of MCS-associated precipitation coincide with the full TRMM rainfall. Attributes of MCSs, including size, count, and intensity, vary synchronously with the diurnal cycle of rainfall. The diurnal peaks are classified into three categories: single afternoon peak, continuous afternoon peak, and nocturnal peak. Single afternoon peaks dominate in spring and fall while continuous afternoon and nocturnal peaks are more common in summer, indicating the seasonality of the diurnal cycle. The continuous afternoon peak combines rainfall from two system types—one locally-generated and one propagating. The seasonality of the diurnal cycle is related to the seasonality of MCS lifetimes, and propagation speeds and directions. The moisture component of the MSE profile contributes to the instability most in summer when convection is more frequent. Low-level temperature, which is related to surface warming and sensible heat fluxes, influences the instability more during winter and spring.

  2. Effects of Global Warming on Predatory Bugs Supported by Data Across Geographic and Seasonal Climatic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuldiner-Harpaz, Tarryn; Coll, Moshe

    2013-01-01

    Global warming may affect species abundance and distribution, as well as temperature-dependent morphometric traits. In this study, we first used historical data to document changes in Orius (Heteroptera: Anthocoridae) species assemblage and individual morphometric traits over the past seven decades in Israel. We then tested whether these changes could have been temperature driven by searching for similar patterns across seasonal and geographic climatic gradients in a present survey. The historical records indicated a shift in the relative abundance of dominant Orius species; the relative abundance of O. albidipennis, a desert-adapted species, increased while that of O. laevigatus decreased in recent decades by 6 and 10–15 folds, respectively. These shifts coincided with an overall increase of up to 2.1°C in mean daily temperatures over the last 25 years in Israel. Similar trends were found in contemporary data across two other climatic gradients, seasonal and geographic; O. albidipennis dominated Orius assemblages under warm conditions. Finally, specimens collected in the present survey were significantly smaller than those from the 1980’s, corresponding to significantly smaller individuals collected now during warmer than colder seasons. Taken together, results provide strong support to the hypothesis that temperature is the most likely driver of the observed shifts in species composition and body sizes because (1) historical changes in both species assemblage and body size were associated with rising temperatures in the study region over the last few decades; and (2) similar changes were observed as a result of contemporary drivers that are associated with temperature. PMID:23805249

  3. Enhancement of seasonal prediction of East Asian summer rainfall related to the western tropical Pacific convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. Y.; Ahn, J. B.; Yoo, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The prediction skills of climate model simulations in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and East Asian region are assessed using the retrospective forecasts of seven state-of-the-art coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) for boreal summers (June-August) during the period 1983-2005, along with corresponding observed and reanalyzed data. The prediction of summer rainfall anomalies in East Asia is difficult, while the WTP has a strong correlation between model prediction and observation. We focus on developing a new approach to further enhance the seasonal prediction skill for summer rainfall in East Asia and investigate the influence of convective activity in the WTP on East Asian summer rainfall. By analyzing the characteristics of the WTP convection, two distinct patterns associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing and decaying modes are identified. Based on the multiple linear regression method, the East Asia Rainfall Index (EARI) is developed by using the interannual variability of the normalized Maritime continent-WTP indices (MPIs), as potentially useful predictors for rainfall prediction over East Asia, obtained from the above two main patterns. For East Asian summer rainfall, the EARI has superior performance to the East Asia summer monsoon index (EASMI) or each MP index (MPI). Therefore, the regressed rainfall from EARI also shows a strong relationship with the observed East Asian summer rainfall pattern. In addition, we evaluate the prediction skill of the East Asia reconstructed rainfall obtained by statistical-empirical approach using the cross-validated EARI from the individual models and their MME. The results show that the rainfalls reconstructed from simulations capture the general features of observed precipitation in East Asia quite well. This study convincingly demonstrates that rainfall prediction skill is considerably improved by using the statistical-empirical method compared to the dynamical models

  4. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freund, Mandy; Henley, Benjamin J.; Karoly, David J.; Allen, Kathryn J.; Baker, Patrick J.

    2017-11-01

    Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April-September) and warm (October-March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997-2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought

  5. Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Freund

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September and warm (October–March season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009 appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of diversity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental

  6. Positive feedback of greenhouse gas balances to warming is determined by non-growing season emissions in an alpine meadow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, S.; Wang, J.; Quan, Q.; Chen, W.; Wen, X.; Yu, G.

    2017-12-01

    Large uncertainties exist in the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in response to climate warming and human activity. So far, numerous previous studies have evaluated the CO2 budget, but little attention has paid to CH4 and N2O budgets and the concurrent balance of these three gases in combination, especially in the non-growing season. Here, we synthesized eddy covariance measurement with the automatic chamber measurements of CO2, CH4, and N2O exposed to three levels of temperature treatments (ambient, +1.5 °C, +2.5 °C) and two disturbance treatments (ummowing, mowing) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. We have found that warming caused increase in CH4 uptake and decrease in N2O emission offset little of the enhancement in CO2 emission, triggering a positive feedback to climate warming. Warming switches the ecosystem from a net sink (-17 ± 14 g CO2-eq m-2 yr-1) in the control to a net source of greenhouse gases of 94 ± 36 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +1.5 °C warming treatment, and 177 ± 6 gCO2-eq m-2 yr-1 in the plots with +2.5 °C warming treatment. The changes in the non-growing season balance, rather than those in the growing season, dominate the warming responses of annual greehouse gas balance. And this is not changed by mowing. The dominant role of responses of winter greenhouse gas balance in the positive feedback of ecosystem to climate warming highlights that greenhouse gas balance in cold season has to be considered when assessing climate-carbon cycle feedback.

  7. Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

    2017-01-01

    Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

  8. Turbulence effects on warm-rain formation in precipitating shallow convection revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Seifert

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Two different collection kernels which include turbulence effects on the collision rate of liquid droplets are used as a basis to develop a parameterization of the warm-rain processes autoconversion, accretion, and self-collection. The new parameterization is tested and validated with the help of a 1-D bin microphysics model. Large-eddy simulations of the rain formation in shallow cumulus clouds confirm previous results that turbulence effects can significantly enhance the development of rainwater in clouds and the occurrence and amount of surface precipitation. The detailed behavior differs significantly for the two turbulence models, revealing a considerable uncertainty in our understanding of such effects. In addition, the large-eddy simulations show a pronounced sensitivity to grid resolution, which suggests that besides the effect of sub-grid small-scale isotropic turbulence which is parameterized as part of the collection kernel also the larger turbulent eddies play an important role for the formation of rain in shallow clouds.

  9. Evaluation of Real-Time Convection-Permitting Precipitation Forecasts in China During the 2013-2014 Summer Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kefeng; Xue, Ming; Zhou, Bowen; Zhao, Kun; Sun, Zhengqi; Fu, Peiling; Zheng, Yongguang; Zhang, Xiaoling; Meng, Qingtao

    2018-01-01

    Forecasts at a 4 km convection-permitting resolution over China during the summer season have been produced with the Weather Research and Forecasting model at Nanjing University since 2013. Precipitation forecasts from 2013 to 2014 are evaluated with dense rain gauge observations and compared with operational global model forecasts. Overall, the 4 km forecasts show very good agreement with observations over most parts of China, outperforming global forecasts in terms of spatial distribution, intensity, and diurnal variation. Quantitative evaluations with the Gilbert skill score further confirm the better performance of the 4 km forecasts over global forecasts for heavy precipitation, especially for the thresholds of 100 and 150 mm d-1. Besides bulk characteristics, the representations of some unique features of summer precipitation in China under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon are further evaluated. These include the northward progression and southward retreat of the main rainband through the summer season, the diurnal variations of precipitation, and the meridional and zonal propagation of precipitation episodes associated with background synoptic flow and the embedded mesoscale convective systems. The 4 km forecast is able to faithfully reproduce most of the features while overprediction of afternoon convection near the southern China coast is found to be a main deficiency that requires further investigations.

  10. Seasonal patterns in soil N availability in the arctic tundra in response to accelerated snowmelt and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Steltzer, H.; Sullivan, P.; Melle, C.; Segal, A.; Weintraub, M. N.

    2010-12-01

    Arctic soils contain large stocks of carbon (C) and may act as a significant CO2 source in response to climate warming. However, nitrogen (N) availability limits both plant growth and decomposition in many Arctic sites, and may thus be a key constraint on climate-carbon feedbacks. While current models of tundra ecosystems and their responses to climate change assume that N limits plant growth and C limits decomposition, there is strong evidence to the contrary showing that N can also limit decomposition. For example, the production of both new microbial biomass and enzymes that degrade organic matter appear to be limited by N during the summer. N availability is strongly seasonal: we have previously observed relatively high availability early in the growing season followed by a pronounced crash in tussock tundra soils. To investigate the drivers of N availability throughout the season, we used a field manipulation of tussock tundra growing season length (~4 days acceleration of snowmelt) and air temperature (open top chambers) and a laboratory soil N addition in both early and late season. Nutrient availability throughout the field season was measured at high temporal resolution (25 measurements from soil thaw through early plant senescence). Results from a laboratory experiment in which N was added to early season and late season soils suggests that soil respiration is in fact N limited at both times of the season, though this limitation is temperature dependent with effects most pronounced at 10°C. High-resolution measurements of nutrients in the soil solution and extractable N throughout the season showed that although a nutrient crash in N can be observed mid-season, N availability can still fluctuate later in the season. Finally, effects of the extended growing season and increased air temperature have so far had few effects on soil nutrient N dynamics throughout the summer growing season, suggesting either an insensitivity of N availability to these

  11. Integrated rice-duck farming mitigates the global warming potential in rice season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guochun; Liu, Xin; Wang, Qiangsheng; Yu, Xichen; Hang, Yuhao

    2017-01-01

    Integrated rice-duck farming (IRDF), as a mode of ecological agriculture, is an important way to realize sustainable development of agriculture. A 2-year split-plot field experiment was performed to evaluate the effects of IRDF on methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and its ecological mechanism in rice season. This experiment was conducted with two rice farming systems (FS) of IRDF and conventional farming (CF) under four paddy-upland rotation systems (PUR): rice-fallow (RF), annual straw incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWS), annual straw-based biogas residues incorporating in rice-wheat rotation system (RWB), and rice-green manure (RGM). During the rice growing seasons, IRDF decreased the CH 4 emission by 8.80-16.68%, while increased the N 2 O emission by 4.23-15.20%, when compared to CF. Given that CH 4 emission contributed to 85.83-96.22% of global warming potential (GWP), the strong reduction in CH 4 emission led to a significantly lower GWP of IRDF as compared to CF. The reason for this trend was because IRDF has significant effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) and soil redox potential (Eh), which were two pivotal factors for CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in this study. The IRDF not only mitigates the GWP, but also increases the rice yield by 0.76-2.43% compared to CF. Moreover, compared to RWS system, RF, RWB and RGM systems significantly reduced CH 4 emission by 50.17%, 44.89% and 39.51%, respectively, while increased N 2 O emission by 10.58%, 14.60% and 23.90%, respectively. And RWS system had the highest GWP. These findings suggest that mitigating GWP and improving rice yield could be simultaneously achieved by the IRDF, and employing suitable PUR would benefit for relieving greenhouse effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

  13. Evaluation of Warm Season Turfgrass under Different Irrigation Regimes in Arid Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah Mohd Hassan ALSHEHHI

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Turfgrasses play a very important role in enhancing quality of life in modern urban living. Water quantity is the most important challenge worldwide in establishing and maintaining quality turf. The present study was aimed to test the performance of three warm season turfgrasses under four water levels for plantation in arid zones. Pits (48 measuring 1m length x 1m width x 0.6 m depth were planted with four replications of Common Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon, Tifway Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon x transvaalensis and Seashore Paspalum grass (Paspalum vaginatum in complete randomized design (CRD. Irrigation was done daily with 15 l/plot during the first 4 weeks (establishment period and four irrigation levels (5, 10, and 15, 20 l/lot were maintained in the following 8 weeks (treatment period. Physical parameters (canopy temperatures, ambient temperature, leaf area, shoot production and relative water content were measured once in two week as well as the visual quality (shoot color, shoot density and shoot uniformity was assessed, however, chlorophyll analysis was done in the end of the study. It was found that temperature has significant effect on performance of turfgrasses. Canopy temperature was higher than ambient temperature in the three turfgrasses but it has different level in each variety. Five liter of water per day per square meter gave acceptable turf quality when ambient temperature ranged from 20 to 33�C. Seashore paspalum performed best followed by Tifway Bermuda grass and common Bermuda grass respectively.

  14. Corresponding Relation between Warm Season Precipitation Extremes and Surface Air Temperature in South China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN; Wei; LI; Jian; YU; Ru-Cong

    2013-01-01

    Hourly data of 42 rain gauges over South China during 1966–2005 were used to analyze the corresponding relation between precipitation extremes and surface air temperature in the warm season(May to October).The results show that below 25℃,both daily and hourly precipitation extremes in South China increase with rising temperature.More extreme events transit to the two-time Clausius-Clapeyron(CC)relationship at lower temperatures.Daily as well as hourly precipitation extremes have a decreasing tendency nearly above 25℃,among which the decrease of hourly extremes is much more significant.In order to investigate the efects of rainfall durations,hourly precipitation extremes are presented by short duration and long duration precipitation,respectively.Results show that the dramatic decrease of hourly rainfall intensities above 25℃ is mainly caused by short duration precipitation,and long duration precipitation extremes rarely occur in South China when surface air temperature surpasses 28℃.

  15. Linkage Between Hourly Precipitation Events and Atmospheric Temperature Changes over China during the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Chiyuan; Sun, Qiaohong; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Duan, Qingyun

    2016-01-01

    We investigated changes in the temporospatial features of hourly precipitation during the warm season over mainland China. The frequency and amount of hourly precipitation displayed latitudinal zonation, especially for light and moderate precipitation, which showed successive downward change over time in northeastern and southern China. Changes in the precipitation amount resulted mainly from changes in frequency rather than changes in intensity. We also evaluated the linkage between hourly precipitation and temperature variations and found that hourly precipitation extreme was more sensitive to temperature than other categories of precipitation. A strong dependency of hourly precipitation on temperature occurred at temperatures colder than the median daily temperature; in such cases, regression slopes were greater than the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation of 7% per degree Celsius. Regression slopes for 31.6%, 59.8%, 96.9%, and 99.1% of all stations were greater than 7% per degree Celsius for the 75th, 90th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles for precipitation, respectively. The mean regression slopes within the 99.9th percentile of precipitation were three times the C-C rate. Hourly precipitation showed a strong negative relationship with daily maximum temperature and the diurnal temperature range at most stations, whereas the equivalent correlation for daily minimum temperature was weak. PMID:26931350

  16. Seasonal variations in methane fluxes in response to summer warming and leaf litter addition in a subarctic heath ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Emily Pickering; Elberling, Bo; Michelsen, Anders

    2017-08-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes. Few studies have investigated CH4 fluxes in subarctic heath ecosystems, and climate change-induced shifts in CH4 flux and the overall carbon budget are therefore largely unknown. Hence, there is an urgent need for long-term in situ experiments allowing for the study of ecosystem processes over time scales relevant to environmental change. Here we present in situ CH4 and CO2 flux measurements from a wet heath ecosystem in northern Sweden subjected to 16 years of manipulations, including summer warming with open-top chambers, birch leaf litter addition, and the combination thereof. Throughout the snow-free season, the ecosystem was a net sink of CH4 and CO2 (CH4 -0.27 mg C m-2 d-1; net ecosystem exchange -1827 mg C m-2 d-1), with highest CH4 uptake rates (-0.70 mg C m-2 d-1) during fall. Warming enhanced net CO2 flux, while net CH4 flux was governed by soil moisture. Litter addition and the combination with warming significantly increased CH4 uptake rates, explained by a pronounced soil drying effect of up to 32% relative to ambient conditions. Both warming and litter addition also increased the seasonal average concentration of dissolved organic carbon in the soil. The site was a carbon sink with a net uptake of 60 g C m-2 over the snow-free season. However, warming reduced net carbon uptake by 77%, suggesting that this ecosystem type might shift from snow-free season sink to source with increasing summer temperatures.

  17. Distribution and seasonal change of the Tsugaru warm current water off Rokkasho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shima, Shigeki; Nakayama, Tomoharu; Iseda, Kenichi; Nishizawa, Keisuke; Gasa, Shinichi; Suto, Kazuhiko; Sakurai, Satoshi; Oguri, Kazumasa; Kouzuma, Kiyotake

    2000-01-01

    The first commercial spent fuel reprocessing plant in Japan is being installed in Rokkasho-mura, Aomori Prefecture. Decontaminated liquid effluents in its operation will be released into a sea. In accessing the environmental impact of radionuclides discharged into a sea, it is important that the patterns of water movements around the discharge outlet are clarified. This area off Rokkasho is an open coast, where the Tsugaru Warm Current Water (TWC), the cold Oyashio and the warm Kuroshio Extension meet. Therefore, it is considered that complicated water circulations will be formed around the region of the wastewater outlet. Current structures of the coastal water near the ocean outlet were investigated by use of mooring current meters/ADCPs, a towing-ADCP, and some CTD observations. In addition, extensive observations with CTD and a shipboard ADCP were made in detail around the off Rokkasho (Shimokita Peninsula) to evaluate the distribution and the seasonal change of the TWC. These observations were carried out five times in September 1997 to August 1999. Gyre mode and coastal mode of the TWC experimentally pointed out by Conlon are found by those investigations. In the gyre mode, the large eddy more than 100 km in diameter is found in the east part of the Tsugaru Strait, which has the vertical structure of 1,000 m in depth. From the current measurements by shipboard ADCP, the velocity of the TWC was more than three knots and the width of its fastest region about 30km at that mode. On the other hand, in the coastal mode, the TWC flows along the continental slope off Rokkasho (ca five miles off the coast) and is about 400m thick in depth. The TWC affects the layers below the sill depth of the Tsugaru Strait. In the gyre mode the TWC flows northward along the slope off Rokkasho, however, around the coastal zone standing near to the outlet, southward flow was observed predominantly. At the coastal mode, the northward flow was mostly observed around the coastal area

  18. Presentation on Tropical Mesoscale convective Systems and ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    Shallow convection- 70% of the storm heights are below 6 km. ♢ Deep convection ... Decay convection, the convective top is found at a higher altitude than deep .... Stratospheric Fountain – Two step process. Warm tropopause- preferable for.

  19. Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates

  20. Soil Moisture and Sea Surface Temperatures equally important for Land Climate in the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2015-12-01

    Both sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and soil moisture (SM) are important drivers of climate variability over land. In this study we present a comprehensive comparison of SM versus SST impacts on land climate in the warm season. We perform ensemble experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) where we set SM or SSTs to median conditions, respectively, to remove their inter-annual variability, whereby the other component - SST or SM - is still interactively computed. In contrast to earlier experiments performed with prescribed SSTs, our experiments suggest that SM is overall as important as SSTs for land climate, not only in the midlatitudes but also in the tropics and subtropics. Mean temperature and precipitation are reduced by 0.1-0.5 K and 0-0.2 mm, respectively, whereas their variability at different time scales decreases by 10-40% (temperature) and 0-10% (precipitation) when either SM or SSTs are prescribed. Also drought occurrence is affected, with mean changes in the maximum number of cumulative dry days of 0-0.75 days. Both SM and SST-induced changes are strongest for hot temperatures (up to 0.7 K, and 50%), extreme precipitation (up to 0.4 mm, and 20%), and strong droughts (up to 2 days). Local climate changes in response to removed SM variability are controlled - to first order - by the land-atmosphere coupling and the natural SM variability. SST-related changes are partly controlled by the relation of local temperature or precipitation with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Moreover removed SM or SST variabilities both induce remote effects by impacting the atmospheric circulation. Our results are similar for the present day and the end of the century. We investigate the inter-dependency between SM and SST and find a sufficient degree of independence for the purpose of this study. The robustness of our findings is shown by comparing the response of CESM to removed SM variability with four other global climate models. In summary, SM and SSTs

  1. The cost of feeding bred dairy heifers on native warm-season grasses and harvested feedstuffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, J K; Boyer, C N; Griffith, A P; Waller, J C; Bates, G E; Keyser, P D; Larson, J A; Holcomb, E

    2016-01-01

    Heifer rearing is one of the largest production expenses for dairy cattle operations, which is one reason milking operations outsource heifer rearing to custom developers. The cost of harvested feedstuffs is a major expense in heifer rearing. A possible way to lower feed costs is to graze dairy heifers, but little research exists on this topic in the mid-south United States. The objectives of this research were to determine the cost of feeding bred dairy heifers grazing native warm-season grasses (NWSG), with and without legumes, and compare the cost of grazing with the cost of rearing heifers using 3 traditional rations. The 3 rations were corn silage with soybean meal, corn silage with dry distillers grain, and a wet distillers grain-based ration. Bred Holstein heifers between 15- and 20-mo-old continuously grazed switchgrass (SG), SG with red clover (SG+RC), a big bluestem and Indiangrass mixture (BBIG), and BBIG with red clover (BBIG+RC) in Tennessee during the summer months. Total grazing days were calculated for each NWSG to determine the average cost/animal per grazing day. The average daily gain (ADG) was calculated for each NWSG to develop 3 harvested feed rations that would result in the same ADG over the same number of grazing day as each NWSG treatment. The average cost/animal per grazing day was lowest for SG ($0.48/animal/grazing d) and highest for BBIG+RC ($1.10/animal/grazing d). For both BBIG and SG, legumes increased the average cost/animal per grazing day because grazing days did not increase enough to account for the additional cost of the legumes. No difference was observed in ADG for heifers grazing BBIG (0.85 kg/d) and BBIG+RC (0.94 kg/d), and no difference was observed in ADG for heifers grazing SG (0.71 kg/d) and SG+RC (0.70 kg/d). However, the ADG for heifers grazing SG and SG+RC was lower than the ADG for heifers grazing either BBIG or BBIG+RC. The average cost/animal per grazing day was lower for all NWSG treatments than the average cost

  2. Competition among warm season C4-cereals influence water use efficiency and competition ratios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanullah

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Water use efficiency (WUE and competition ratio (CR response of three warm season C4-cereals (grasses viz. corn (Zea mays L., cv. Hybrid-5393 VT3, grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench, cv. Hybrid-84G62 PAT, and foxtail millets (Setaria italic, cv. German Strain R in pure and mixed stands under low and high water levels was investigated. The experiment was conducted in pot experiment at Dryland Agriculture Institute, West Texas A&M University, Canyon, Texas, USA, during spring 2010. The objective of this study was to know whether the differences in the competitive ability of different crop species influence WUE or not? The planned mean comparison indicated that the corn WUE was 20, 11, and 6% higher in the mixed stand than in pure stand at 30, 60, and 90 days after emergence (DAE, respectively. The corn plants in pure stand had 91, 72, and 81% higher WUE than the average WUE of sorghum and millets in pure stand at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. Grain sorghum in pure stand had 70, 32, and 36% higher WUE than that of millets in pure stand at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. The WUE of three crops in mixed stand was 10 and 8% higher than the two crops mixed stand at the two early stages; but the WUE was 24% less in the three crops mixed stand than the two crops mixed stand at 90 DAE. Corn-mixed stand in two crops (average of corn + sorghum and corn + millets had 78, 74, and 74% higher WUE than the mixed stand of sorghum and millets at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. Corn and millets mixed stand had 14, 10, and 26% higher WUE than the corn and sorghum mixed stand at 30, 60, and 90 DAE, respectively. The increase in water level decreased WUE at the two late growth stages in all three crop plants. At the early growth stage (30 DAE, WUE increased in all crops at the higher water level. On the basis of CR, corn was found the best competitor, while millets was declared the least competitor in the mixed stands (corn

  3. Economic and conservation implications of converting exotic forages to native warm-season grass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian P. Monroe

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Intensive agriculture can have negative environmental consequences such as nonpoint source pollution and the simplification of biotic communities, and land sharing posits that conservation can be enhanced by integrating agricultural productivity and biodiversity on the same land. In the Southeastern United States, native warm-season grasses (NWSG may be a land sharing alternative to exotic forages currently in production because of greater livestock gains with lower fertilizer inputs, and habitat for grassland birds. However, uncertainty regarding costs and risk poses an important barrier to incorporating NWSG in livestock operations. We evaluated the economic and conservation implications of NWSG conversion among small, operational-scale pastures (6.8–10.5 ha during 2011–2012 at the Prairie Research Unit in Monroe Co., Mississippi (USA. We used partial budgets to compare the marginal rate of return (MRRe from converting exotic grass pastures to either a NWSG monoculture of Indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans or a NWSG mix of Indiangrass, little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium, and big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii. We similarly compared changes in productivity of dickcissels (Spiza americana, a grassland bird specializing in tall structure. Average daily gain (ADG of steers and revenue were consistently higher for NWSG treatments than exotic grass pasture, but ADG declined between years. Indiangrass pastures yielded consistently positive MRRe, indicating producers would receive 16–24% return on investment. Marginal rate of return was lower for mixed NWSG (−12 to 3%, driven by slightly lower livestock ADG and higher establishment costs than for Indiangrass. Sensitivity analyses indicated that MRRe also was influenced by cattle selling price. Conversely, mixed NWSG increased dickcissel productivity by a greater degree than Indiangrass per amount invested in NWSG conversion, suggesting a tradeoff between livestock and dickcissel production

  4. Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang; Castro, Christopher; Nguyen, Truong; Cassell, William; Chang, Hsin-I

    2018-01-01

    A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers) to simulate organized convection, principally

  5. Seasonal and solar cycle variations in the ionospheric convection reversal boundary location inferred from monthly SuperDARN data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Koustov

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Multi-year (1995–2013 velocity data collected by the Super Dual Auroral Network (SuperDARN HF radars are considered to investigate seasonal and solar cycle variations of the convection reversal boundary (CRB location for interplanetary magnetic field (IMF Bz < 0. By considering monthly data sets we show that the CRB is at higher latitudes in summer between 1995 and 2007. The poleward shifts are on the order of 2–5°. After 2007, the seasonal effect weakens, and the highest latitudes for the CRB start to occur during the winter time. We show that the CRB latitudes decrease with an increase of the IMF transverse component at a rate of (1–2°/2 nT. Because of this effect, on average, the CRB latitudes are lower during high solar activity periods with stronger IMFs. We also confirm the effect of the CRB dawn-dusk shifts related to the IMF changes in the IMF By sign.

  6. Competition between core and periphery-based processes in warm convective clouds – from invigoration to suppression

    OpenAIRE

    G. Dagan; I. Koren; O. Altaratz

    2015-01-01

    How do changes in the amount and properties of aerosol affect warm clouds? Recent studies suggest that they have opposing effects. Some suggest that an increase in aerosol loading leads to enhanced evaporation and therefore smaller clouds, whereas other studies suggest clouds' invigoration. In this study, using an axisymmetric bin-microphysics cloud model, we propose a theoretical scheme that analyzes the evolution of key processes in warm clouds, under different aerosol loa...

  7. Impacts of aerosols on seasonal precipitation and snowpack in California based on convection-permitting WRF-Chem simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Longtao; Gu, Yu; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui; Yu, Nanpeng; Zhao, Chun; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Bin; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Choi, Yong-Sang

    2018-04-01

    A version of the WRF-Chem model with fully coupled aerosol-meteorology-snowpack is employed to investigate the impacts of various aerosol sources on precipitation and snowpack in California. In particular, the impacts of locally emitted anthropogenic and dust aerosols, and aerosols transported from outside California are studied. We differentiate three pathways of aerosol effects: aerosol-radiation interaction (ARI), aerosol-snow interaction (ASI), and aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI). The convection-permitting model simulations show that precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and surface air temperature averaged over the whole domain (34-42° N, 117-124° W, not including ocean points) are reduced when aerosols are included, therefore reducing large biases in these variables due to the absence of aerosol effects in the model. Aerosols affect California water resources through the warming of mountaintops and the reduction of precipitation; however, different aerosol sources play different roles in changing surface temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in California by means of various weights of the three pathways. ARI by all aerosols mainly cools the surface, leading to slightly increased SWE over the mountains. Locally emitted dust aerosols warm the surface of mountaintops through ASI, in which the reduced snow albedo associated with dusty snow leads to more surface absorption of solar radiation and reduced SWE. Transported aerosols and local anthropogenic aerosols play a dominant role in increasing nonprecipitating clouds but reducing precipitation through ACI, leading to reduced SWE and runoff on the Sierra Nevada, as well as the warming of mountaintops associated with decreased SWE and hence lower surface albedo. The average changes in surface temperature from October 2012 to June 2013 are about -0.19 and 0.22 K for the whole domain and over mountaintops, respectively. Overall, the averaged reduction during October to June is about 7 % for precipitation

  8. Impacts of aerosols on seasonal precipitation and snowpack in California based on convection-permitting WRF-Chem simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Longtao; Gu, Yu; Jiang, Jonathan; Su, Hui; Yu, Nanpeng; Zhao, Chun; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Bin; Liou, K. N.; Choi, Yong-Sang

    2018-04-23

    A version of the WRF-Chem model with fully coupled aerosol–meteorology–snowpack is employed to investigate the impacts of various aerosol sources on precipitation and snowpack in California. In particular, the impacts of locally emitted anthropogenic and dust aerosols, and aerosols transported from outside California are studied. We differentiate three pathways of aerosol effects: aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI), aerosol–snow interaction (ASI), and aerosol–cloud interaction (ACI). The convection-permitting model simulations show that precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and surface air temperature averaged over the whole domain (34–42° N, 117–124° W, not including ocean points) are reduced when aerosols are included, therefore reducing large biases in these variables due to the absence of aerosol effects in the model. Aerosols affect California water resources through the warming of mountaintops and the reduction of precipitation; however, different aerosol sources play different roles in changing surface temperature, precipitation, and snowpack in California by means of various weights of the three pathways. ARI by all aerosols mainly cools the surface, leading to slightly increased SWE over the mountains. Locally emitted dust aerosols warm the surface of mountaintops through ASI, in which the reduced snow albedo associated with dusty snow leads to more surface absorption of solar radiation and reduced SWE. Transported aerosols and local anthropogenic aerosols play a dominant role in increasing nonprecipitating clouds but reducing precipitation through ACI, leading to reduced SWE and runoff on the Sierra Nevada, as well as the warming of mountaintops associated with decreased SWE and hence lower surface albedo. The average changes in surface temperature from October 2012 to June 2013 are about −0.19 and 0.22 K for the whole domain and over mountaintops, respectively. Overall, the averaged reduction during October to June is about

  9. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

  10. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  11. Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Krikken, F.

    2016-01-01

    Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-Albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-The-Art global

  12. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

  13. Protozoans bacterivory in a subtropical environment during a dry/cold and a rainy/warm season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina F. Hisatugo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In aquatic ecosystems, bacteria are controlled by several organisms in the food chain, such as protozoa, that use them as food source. This study aimed to quantify the ingestion and clearance rates of bacteria by ciliates and heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF in a subtropical freshwater reservoir (Monjolinho reservoir -São Carlos -Brazil during one year period, in order to verify their importance as consumers and controllers of bacteria in two seasons, a dry/cold and a rainy/warm one. For this purpose, in situ bacterivory experiments were carried out bimonthly using fluorescently labeled bacteria with 5-(4,6 diclorotriazin-2yl aminofluorescein (DTAF. Although ciliates have shown the highest individual ingestion and clearance rates, bacterivory was dominated by HNF, who showed higher population ingestion rates (mean of 9,140 bacteria h-1mL-1 when compared to ciliates (mean of 492 bacteria h-1mL-1. The greater predation impact on bacterial communities was caused mainly by the small HNF (< 5 µm population, especially in the rainy season, probably due to the abundances of these organisms, the precipitation, trophic index state and water temperature that were higher in this period. Thus, the protozoan densities together with environmental variables were extremely relevant in determining the seasonal pattern of bacterivory in Monjolinho reservoir.

  14. Intake, digestibility, and nitrogen retention by sheep supplemented with warm-season legume haylages or soybean meal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, J L; Adesogan, A T; Carter, J N; Blount, A R; Myer, R O; Phatak, S C

    2009-09-01

    The high cost of commercial supplements necessitates evaluation of alternatives for ruminant livestock fed poor quality warm-season grasses. This study determined how supplementing bahiagrass haylage (Paspalum notatum Flügge cv. Tifton 9) with soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] meal or warm-season legume haylages affected the performance of lambs. Forty-two Dorper x Katadhin lambs (27.5 +/- 5 kg) were fed for ad libitum intake of bahiagrass haylage (67.8% NDF, 9.6% CP) alone (control) or supplemented with soybean meal (18.8% NDF, 51.4% CP) or haylages of annual peanut [Arachis hypogaea (L.) cv. Florida MDR98; 39.6% NDF, 18.7% CP], cowpea [Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp. cv. Iron clay; 44.1% NDF, 16.0% CP], perennial peanut (Arachis glabrata Benth. cv. Florigraze; 40.0% NDF, 15.8% CP), or pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp. cv. GA-2; 65.0% NDF, 13.7% CP]. Haylages were harvested at the optimal maturity for maximizing yield and nutritive value, wilted to 45% DM, baled, wrapped in polyethylene plastic, and ensiled for 180 d. Legumes were fed at 50% of the dietary DM, and soybean meal was fed at 8% of the dietary DM to match the average CP concentration (12.8%) of legume haylage-supplemented diets. Lambs were fed each diet for a 14-d adaptation period and a 7-d data collection period. Each diet was fed to 7 lambs in period 1 and 4 lambs in period 2. Pigeonpea haylage supplementation decreased (P haylages increased (P haylage, all supplements increased (P haylage supplementation, but unaffected (P = 0.05) by other supplements. Efficiency of microbial protein synthesis was unaffected (P = 0.05) by diet. Ruminal ammonia concentration was increased (P = 0.01) by all supplements, but only soybean meal and annual peanut haylage increased (P haylages are promising protein supplements for growing lambs.

  15. Dynamics of Necrophagous Insect and Tissue Bacteria for Postmortem Interval Estimation During the Warm Season in Romania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iancu, Lavinia; Sahlean, Tiberiu; Purcarea, Cristina

    2016-01-01

    The estimation of postmortem interval (PMI) is affected by several factors including the cause of death, the place where the body lay after death, and the weather conditions during decomposition. Given the climatic differences among biogeographic locations, the understanding of necrophagous insect species biology and ecology is required when estimating PMI. The current experimental model was developed in Romania during the warm season in an outdoor location. The aim of the study was to identify the necrophagous insect species diversity and dynamics, and to detect the bacterial species present during decomposition in order to determine if their presence or incidence timing could be useful to estimate PMI. The decomposition process of domestic swine carcasses was monitored throughout a 14-wk period (10 July-10 October 2013), along with a daily record of meteorological parameters. The chronological succession of necrophagous entomofauna comprised nine Diptera species, with the dominant presence of Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann 1819) (Calliphoridae), while only two Coleoptera species were identified, Dermestes undulatus (L. 1758) and Creophilus maxillosus Brahm 1970. The bacterial diversity and dynamics from the mouth and rectum tissues, and third-instar dipteran larvae were identified using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis analysis and sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA gene fragments. Throughout the decomposition process, two main bacterial chronological groups were differentiated, represented by Firmicutes and Gammaproteobacteria. Twenty-six taxa from the rectal cavity and 22 from the mouth cavity were identified, with the dominant phylum in both these cavities corresponding to Firmicutes. The present data strengthen the postmortem entomological and microbial information for the warm season in this temperate-continental area, as well as the role of microbes in carcass decomposition. © The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of

  16. Improved boundary layer height measurement using a fuzzy logic method: Diurnal and seasonal variabilities of the convective boundary layer over a tropical station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allabakash, S.; Yasodha, P.; Bianco, L.; Venkatramana Reddy, S.; Srinivasulu, P.; Lim, S.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents the efficacy of a "tuned" fuzzy logic method at determining the height of the boundary layer using the measurements from a 1280 MHz lower atmospheric radar wind profiler located in Gadanki (13.5°N, 79°E, 375 mean sea level), India, and discusses the diurnal and seasonal variations of the measured convective boundary layer over this tropical station. The original fuzzy logic (FL) method estimates the height of the atmospheric boundary layer combining the information from the range-corrected signal-to-noise ratio, the Doppler spectral width of the vertical velocity, and the vertical velocity itself, measured by the radar, through a series of thresholds and rules, which did not prove to be optimal for our radar system and geographical location. For this reason the algorithm was tuned to perform better on our data set. Atmospheric boundary layer heights obtained by this tuned FL method, the original FL method, and by a "standard method" (that only uses the information from the range-corrected signal-to-noise ratio) are compared with those obtained from potential temperature profiles measured by collocated Global Positioning System Radio Sonde during years 2011 and 2013. The comparison shows that the tuned FL method is more accurate than the other methods. Maximum convective boundary layer heights are observed between 14:00 and 15:00 local time (LT = UTC + 5:30) for clear-sky days. These daily maxima are found to be lower during winter and postmonsoon seasons and higher during premonsoon and monsoon seasons, due to net surface radiation and convective processes over this region being more intense during premonsoon and monsoon seasons and less intense in winter and postmonsoon seasons.

  17. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: Addressing Higher Latitude, Cold Season, and Synoptic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, D.; Tao, W. K.; Lang, S. E.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The current CSH LUTs are differentiated with respect to surface rainfall characteristics, which is effective for tropical and continental summertime environments. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics and mid-latitudes to higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. Accordingly, the CSH algorithm and LUTs need to be updated for higher latitude events. In this study, NU-WRF was employed at 1 km to simulate winter systems in the US. A, new methodology has been adopted to construct LUTs utilizing satellite-observable 3D intensity fields, such as radar reflectivity. The new methodology/LUTs can be then applied to simulated radar fields to derive cloud heating for comparison against the model simulated heating. The model heating is treated as the `truth' as it is self-consistent with the simulated radar fields. This `consistency check' approach is a common well-established first step in algorithm development (e.g., the earlier CSH). The LUTs will be improved by iterating the consistency checks to quantitatively evaluate the similarities between the retrieved and simulated heating. The evaluations will be performed for different weather events, including northeast winter storms and atmospheric rivers.

  18. Use of local convective and radiant cooling at warm environment: effect on thermal comfort and perceived air quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Duszyk, Marcin; Krejcirikova, Barbora

    2012-01-01

    The effect of four local cooling devices (convective, radiant and combined) on thermal comfort and perceived air quality reported by 24 subjects at 28 ˚C and 50% RH was studied. The devices studied were: (1) desk cooling fan, (2) personalized ventilation providing clean air, (3) two radiant panels...... and (4) two radiant panels with one panel equipped with small fans. A reference condition without cooling was tested as well. The response of the subjects to the exposed conditions was collected by computerized questionnaires. The cooling devices significantly (pthermal comfort...... compared to without cooling. The acceptability of the thermal environment was similar for all cooling devices. The acceptability of air movement and PAQ increased when the local cooling methods were used. The best results were achieved with personalized ventilation and cooling fan. The improvement in PAQ...

  19. Harvesting Effects on Species Composition and Distribution of Cover Attributes in Mixed Native Warm-Season Grass Stands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitalis W. Temu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Managing grasslands for forage and ground-nesting bird habitat requires appropriate defoliation strategies. Subsequent early-summer species composition in mixed stands of native warm-season grasses (Indiangrass (IG, Sorghastrum nutans, big bluestem (BB, Andropogon gerardii and little bluestem (LB, Schizachyrium scoparium responding to harvest intervals (treatments, 30, 40, 60, 90 or 120 d and durations (years in production was assessed. Over three years, phased May harvestings were initiated on sets of randomized plots, ≥90 cm apart, in five replications (blocks to produce one-, two- and three-year-old stands. Two weeks after harvest, the frequencies of occurrence of plant species, litter and bare ground, diagonally across each plot (line intercept, were compared. Harvest intervals did not influence proportions of dominant plant species, occurrence of major plant types or litter, but increased that of bare ground patches. Harvest duration increased the occurrence of herbaceous forbs and bare ground patches, decreased that of tall-growing forbs and litter, but without affecting that of perennial grasses, following a year with more September rainfall. Data suggest that one- or two-year full-season forage harvesting may not compromise subsequent breeding habitat for bobwhites and other ground-nesting birds in similar stands. It may take longer than a year’s rest for similar stands to recover from such changes in species composition.

  20. Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative

  1. Time-dependent, non-monotonic response of warm convective cloud fields to changes in aerosol loading

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Dagan

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Large eddy simulations (LESs with bin microphysics are used here to study cloud fields' sensitivity to changes in aerosol loading and the time evolution of this response. Similarly to the known response of a single cloud, we show that the mean field properties change in a non-monotonic trend, with an optimum aerosol concentration for which the field reaches its maximal water mass or rain yield. This trend is a result of competition between processes that encourage cloud development versus those that suppress it. However, another layer of complexity is added when considering clouds' impact on the field's thermodynamic properties and how this is dependent on aerosol loading. Under polluted conditions, rain is suppressed and the non-precipitating clouds act to increase atmospheric instability. This results in warming of the lower part of the cloudy layer (in which there is net condensation and cooling of the upper part (net evaporation. Evaporation at the upper part of the cloudy layer in the polluted simulations raises humidity at these levels and thus amplifies the development of the next generation of clouds (preconditioning effect. On the other hand, under clean conditions, the precipitating clouds drive net warming of the cloudy layer and net cooling of the sub-cloud layer due to rain evaporation. These two effects act to stabilize the atmospheric boundary layer with time (consumption of the instability. The evolution of the field's thermodynamic properties affects the cloud properties in return, as shown by the migration of the optimal aerosol concentration toward higher values.

  2. Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

    2017-12-01

    One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of

  3. Characterization of water quality and suspended sediment during cold-season flows, warm-season flows, and stormflows in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, 2007–2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lisa D.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

    2017-09-01

    From 2007 through 2015, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Colorado Springs City Engineering, conducted a study in the Fountain and Monument Creek watersheds, Colorado, to characterize surface-water quality and suspended-sediment conditions for three different streamflow regimes with an emphasis on characterizing water quality during storm runoff. Data collected during this study were used to evaluate the effects of stormflows and wastewater-treatment effluent discharge on Fountain and Monument Creeks in the Colorado Springs, Colorado, area. Water-quality samples were collected at 2 sites on Upper Fountain Creek, 2 sites on Monument Creek, 3 sites on Lower Fountain Creek, and 13 tributary sites during 3 flow regimes: cold-season flow (November–April), warm-season flow (May–October), and stormflow from 2007 through 2015. During 2015, additional samples were collected and analyzed for Escherichia coli (E. coli) during dry weather conditions at 41 sites, located in E. coli impaired stream reaches, to help identify source areas and scope of the impairment.Concentrations of E. coli, total arsenic, and dissolved copper, selenium, and zinc in surface-water samples were compared to Colorado in-stream standards. Stormflow concentrations of E. coli frequently exceeded the recreational use standard of 126 colonies per 100 milliliters at main-stem and tributary sites by more than an order of magnitude. Even though median E. coli concentrations in warm-season flow samples were lower than median concentrations in storm-flow samples, the water quality standard for E. coli was still exceeded at most main-stem sites and many tributary sites during warm-season flows. Six samples (three warm-season flow and three stormflow samples) collected from Upper Fountain Creek, upstream from the confluence of Monument Creek, and two stormflow samples collected from Lower Fountain Creek, downstream from the confluence with Monument Creek, exceeded the acute water

  4. A comparative simple method for human bioclimatic conditions applied to seasonally hot/warm cities of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda Martinez, A. [Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico); Garcia Cueto, O.R. [Universidad Autonoma de Baja California, Mexicali, B.C. (Mexico)

    2002-01-01

    The climate of a region is an environmental resource with important implications for things such as thermal comfort, health and productivity of the population. In this work, the bioclimatic comfort was evaluated for seven seasonally warm/hot cities of Mexico by means of the following current indexes: Discomfort Index, Enthalpy Index and Heat Strain Index. Also, the periods during which it is necessary to use air conditioning in the studied cities were calculated from estimated global radiation and hourly data of temperature and relative humidity which made it possible to establish them with high precision. Finally, the useful of the Heat Strain Index is shown. It is a simple index needing available meteorological data to compare bioclimatic conditions of similar sites. [Spanish] El clima regional tiene implicaciones en el confort, la salud y la productividad de la poblacion. En este articulo se presentan las evaluaciones bioclimaticas comparativas de siete ciudades calidas de Mexico. Se aplicaron los indices bioclimaticos de disconfort, entalpia y esfuerzo frente al calor. Se calcularon los periodos para los cuales es necesario el uso de aire acondicionado, a partir de estimaciones de radiacion solar global y de temperatura y humedad horarias medias mensuales. Finalmente se muestra la utilidad y calidad del Indice de esfuerzo frente al calor, el cual requiere solo de datos climatologicos comunes para poder comparar condiciones bioclimaticas de sitios similares.

  5. Seeding method influences warm-season grass abundance and distribution but not local diversity in grassland restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurkonis, Kathryn A.; Wilsey, Brian J.; Moloney, Kirk A.; Drobney, Pauline; Larson, Diane L.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological theory predicts that the arrangement of seedlings in newly restored communities may influence future species diversity and composition. We test the prediction that smaller distances between neighboring seeds in drill seeded grassland plantings would result in lower species diversity, greater weed abundance, and larger conspecific patch sizes than otherwise similar broadcast seeded plantings. A diverse grassland seed mix was either drill seeded, which places seeds in equally spaced rows, or broadcast seeded, which spreads seeds across the ground surface, into 24 plots in each of three sites in 2005. In summer 2007, we measured species abundance in a 1 m2 quadrat in each plot and mapped common species within the quadrat by recording the most abundant species in each of 64 cells. Quadrat-scale diversity and weed abundance were similar between drilled and broadcast plots, suggesting that processes that limited establishment and controlled invasion were not affected by such fine-scale seed distribution. However, native warm-season (C4) grasses were more abundant and occurred in less compact patches in drilled plots. This difference in C4 grass abundance and distribution may result from increased germination or vegetative propagation of C4 grasses in drilled plots. Our findings suggest that local plant density may control fine-scale heterogeneity and species composition in restored grasslands, processes that need to be further investigated to determine whether seed distributions can be manipulated to increase diversity in restored grasslands.

  6. Nonintrusive field experiments show different plant responses to warming and drought among sites, seasons, and species in a north-south European gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Penuelas, J.; Gordon, C.; Llorens, L.

    2004-01-01

    -limited. In the water-stressed southern site, there was no increase in total aboveground plant biomass growth as expected since warming increases water loss, and temperatures in those ecosystems are already close to the optimum for photosynthesis. The southern site presented instead the most negative response...... a 15% increase in total aboveground plant biomass growth in the UK site. Both direct and indirect effects of warming, such as longer growth season and increased nutrient availability, are likely to be particularly important in this and the other northern sites which tend to be temperature...... to the drought treatment consisting of a soil moisture reduction at the peak of the growing season ranging from 33% in the Spanish site to 82% in The Netherlands site. In the Spanish site there was a 14% decrease in total aboveground plant biomass growth relative to control. Flowering was decreased by drought...

  7. Forage yield and nitrogen nutrition dynamics of warm-season native forage genotypes under two shading levels and in full sunlight

    OpenAIRE

    Barro,Raquel Santiago; Varella,Alexandre Costa; Lemaire,Gilles; Medeiros,Renato Borges de; Saibro,João Carlos de; Nabinger,Carlos; Bangel,Felipe Villamil; Carassai,Igor Justin

    2012-01-01

    The successful achievement of a highly productive understorey pasture in silvopastoral systems depends on the use of well-adapted forage genotypes, showing good agronomic performance and persistence under shading and grazing. In this study, the herbage dry matter yield (DMY) and nitrogen nutrition dynamics were determined in three native warm-season grasses (Paspalum regnellii, Paspalum dilatatum and Paspalum notatum) and a forage legume (Arachis pintoi) under two shading levels compared with...

  8. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  9. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses, the assessment of their genetic and cytogenetic effects and biomass production from grass. Annual progress report, November 1, 1979 to October 31, 1980

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.W.; Hanna, W.W.

    1980-01-01

    New techniques are described for using irradiation and chemical mutagens in the genetic improvement of several warm season grasses. Genetic and cytogenetic effects of these treatments are also being studied

  10. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses and an assessment of the genetic and cytogenetic effects. Progress report, May 1, 1975--April 30, 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.W.; Hanna, W.W.

    1976-06-01

    Irradiation ( 60 Coγ source) was used for the genetic improvement of several warm season grasses and pearl millet. Results of plant breeding experiments using radioinduced mutants of Bermuda grass and millet are reported

  11. Phenotyping Drought Tolerance and Yield Potential of Warm-Season Legumes Through Field- and Airborne-Based Hyperspectral VSWIR Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewry, D.; Berny-Mier y Teran, J. C.; Dutta, D.; Gepts, P.

    2017-12-01

    Hyperspectral sensing in the visible through shortwave infrared (VSWIR) portion of the spectrum has been demonstrated to provide significant information on the structural and functional properties of vegetation, resulting in powerful techniques to discern species differences, characterize crop nutrient or water stress, and quantify the density of foliage in agricultural fields. Modern machine-learning techniques allow for the entire set of spectral bands, on the order of hundreds with modern field and airborne spectrometers, to be used to develop models that can simultaneously retrieve a variety of foliar chemical compounds and hydrological and structural states. The application of these techniques, in the context of leaf-level measurements of VSWIR reflectance, or more complicated remote airborne surveys, has the potential to revolutionize high-throughput methods to phenotype germplasm that optimizes yield, resource-use efficiencies, or alternate objectives related to disease resistance or biomass accumulation, for example. Here we focus on breeding trials for a set of warm-season legumes, conducted in both greenhouse and field settings, and spanning a set of diverse genotypes providing a range of adaptation to drought and yield potential in the context of the semi-arid climate cultivation. At the leaf-level, a large set of spectral reflectance measurements spanning 400-2500 nanometers were made for plants across various growth stages in field experiments that induced severe drought, along with sampling for relevant trait values. Here we will discuss the development and performance of algorithms for a range of leaf traits related to gas exchange, leaf structure, hydrological status, nutrient contents and stable isotope discrimination, along with their relationships to drought resistance and yield. We likewise discuss the effectiveness of quantifying relevant foliar and canopy traits through airborne imaging spectroscopy from small unmanned vehicles (sUAVs), and

  12. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

  13. Intra-seasonal oscillations associated with Indian Ocean warm pool and summer monsoon rainfall and their inter-annual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Nisha, P.G.; Sathe, P.V.; Sivakumar, K.U.

    that the time latitude section of zonally averaged OLR and TMI derived cloud liquid water data clearly depict the propagation of convection and cloud from the equator to the north at the rate of 0.75 degrees to 1 degree latitude per day which corroborates well...

  14. The Effect of Passive Design Strategies on Thermal Performance of Female Secondary School Buildings during Warm Season in Hot Dry Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar eZahiri

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a series of field studies and simulation analysis to improve the thermal performance of school buildings in the city of Tehran in Iran during warm season. The field studies used on-site measurement and questionnaire-based survey in the warm spring season in a typical female secondary school building. The on-site monitoring assessed the indoor air temperature and humidity levels of six classrooms while the occupants completed questionnaires covering their thermal sensations and thermal preferences. Moreover, thermal simulation analysis was also carried out to evaluate and improve the thermal performance of the classrooms based on the students’ thermal requirements and passive design strategies. In this study, the environmental design guidelines for female secondary school buildings were introduced for the hot and dry climate of Tehran, using passive design strategies. The study shows that the application of passive design strategies including south and south-east orientation, 10cm thermal insulation in wall and 5cm in the roof, and the combination of 30cm side fins and overhangs as a solar shading devices, as well as all-day ventilation strategy and the use of thermal mass materials with 25cm-30cm thickness, has considerable impact on indoor air temperatures in warm season in Tehran and keeps the indoor environment in an acceptable thermal condition. The results of the field studies also indicated that most of the occupants found their thermal environment not to be comfortable and the simulation results showed that passive design techniques had a significant influence on the indoor air temperature and can keep it in an acceptable range based on the female students’ thermal requirement. Therefore, in order to enhance the indoor environment and to increase the learning performance of the students, it is necessary to use the appropriate passive design strategies, which also reduce the need for mechanical systems and

  15. EFFECT OF PRE-COOLING ON REPEAT-SPRINT PERFORMANCE IN SEASONALLY ACCLIMATISED MALES DURING AN OUTDOOR SIMULATED TEAM-SPORT PROTOCOL IN WARM CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carly J. Brade

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Whether precooling is beneficial for exercise performance in warm climates when heat acclimatised is unclear. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of precooling on repeat-sprint performance during a simulated team-sport circuit performed outdoors in warm, dry field conditions in seasonally acclimatised males (n = 10. They performed two trials, one with precooling (PC; ice slushy and cooling jacket and another without (CONT. Trials began with a 30-min baseline/cooling period followed by an 80 min repeat-sprint protocol, comprising 4 x 20-min quarters, with 2 x 5-min quarter breaks and a 10-min half-time recovery/cooling period. A clear and substantial (negative; PC slower effect was recorded for first quarter circuit time. Clear and trivial effects were recorded for overall circuit time, third and fourth quarter sprint times and fourth quarter best sprint time, otherwise unclear and trivial effects were recorded for remaining performance variables. Core temperature was moderately lower (Cohen's d=0.67; 90% CL=-1.27, 0.23 in PC at the end of the precooling period and quarter 1. No differences were found for mean skin temperature, heart rate, thermal sensation, or rating of perceived exertion, however, moderate Cohen's d effect sizes suggested a greater sweat loss in PC compared with CONT. In conclusion, repeat- sprint performance was neither clearly nor substantially improved in seasonally acclimatised players by using a combination of internal and external cooling methods prior to and during exercise performed in the field in warm, dry conditions. Of practical importance, precooling appears unnecessary for repeat-sprint performance if athletes are seasonally acclimatised or artificially acclimated to heat, as it provides no additional benefit

  16. Development of Seasonal BRDF Models to Extend the Use of Deep Convective Clouds as Invariant Targets for Satellite SWIR-Band Calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra Bhatt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Tropical deep convective clouds (DCC are an excellent invariant target for vicarious calibration of satellite visible (VIS and near-infrared (NIR solar bands. The DCC technique (DCCT is a statistical approach that collectively analyzes all identified DCC pixels on a monthly basis. The DCC reflectance in VIS and NIR spectrums is mainly a function of cloud optical depth, and provides a stable monthly statistical mode. However, for absorption shortwave infrared (SWIR bands, the monthly DCC response is found to exhibit large seasonal cycles that make the implementation of the DCCT more challenging at these wavelengths. The seasonality assumption was tested using the SNPP-VIIRS SWIR bands, with up to 50% of the monthly DCC response temporal variation removed through deseasonalization. In this article, a monthly DCC bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF approach is proposed, which is found to be comparable to or can outperform the effects of deseasonalization alone. To demonstrate that the SNPP-VIIRS DCC BRDF can be applied to other JPSS VIIRS imagers in the same 13:30 sun-synchronous orbit, the VIIRS DCC BRDF was applied to Aqua-MODIS. The Aqua-MODIS SWIR band DCC reflectance natural variability is reduced by up to 45% after applying the VIIRS-based monthly DCC BRDFs.

  17. Mean surface fields of heat budget components over the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.; Rao, D.P.; Rao, B.P.

    Andaman Islands and in the MT area there is an association between SST and Q n . But, off Sri Lanka warmer waters were noticed eventhough Q n was negative. This gives a clue that the role of advection plays a dominant role in the maintenance of SST.... Maintenance of warmwaters could be due to the transport of heat from North to South during post-monsoon season. Individual contributions from advection and air-sea fluxes towards SST would throw better light on the formation of warm pool in Bay of Bengal...

  18. Projected changes of thermal growing season over Northern Eurasia in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Baiquan; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Yu, Rong

    2018-03-01

    Projected changes of the thermal growing season (TGS) over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels are investigated using 22 CMIP5 models under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The multi-model mean projections indicate Northern Eurasia will experience extended and intensified TGSs in a warmer world. The prolongation of TGSs under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming is attributed to both earlier onset and later termination, with the latter factor playing a dominating role. Interestingly, earlier onset is of greater importance under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 in prolonging TGS as the world warms by an additional 0.5 °C. Under both RCPs, growing degree day sum (GDD) above 5 °C is anticipated to increase by 0 °C-450 °C days and 0 °C-650 °C days over Northern Eurasia at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, respectively. However, effective GDD (EGDD) which accumulates optimum temperature for the growth of wheat, exhibits a decline in the south of Central Asia under warmer climates. Therefore, for wheat production over Northern Eurasia, adverse effects incurred by scorching temperatures and resultant inadequacy in water availability may counteract benefits from lengthening and warming TGS. In response to a future 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, proper management and scientifically-tailored adaptation are imperative to optimize local-regional agricultural production.

  19. Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-10

    thunderstorms under the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Convective-permitting modeling is the most viable and physically robust approach to...been considered. Long-term climate changes during approximately the last 30 years (since 1980) are deemed to be anthropogenically influenced , and...1998. Implementation of prognostic cloud scheme for a regional spectral model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2621–2639 IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013. The

  20. A Climatology of Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Central and Eastern United States, 1986-95. Part I: Temporal and Spatial Distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Mace L.; Mote, Thomas L.

    1998-11-01

    In 1888, Iowa weather researcher Gustavus Hinrichs gave widespread convectively induced windstorms the name "derecho". Refinements to this definition have evolved after numerous investigations of these systems; however, to date, a derecho climatology has not been conducted.This investigation examines spatial and temporal aspects of derechos and their associated mesoscale convective systems that occurred from 1986 to 1995. The spatial distribution of derechos revealed four activity corridors during the summer, five during the spring, and two during the cool season. Evidence suggests that the primary warm season derecho corridor is located in the southern Great Plains. During the cool season, derecho activity was found to occur in the southeast states and along the Atlantic seaboard. Temporally, derechos are primarily late evening or overnight events during the warm season and are more evenly distributed throughout the day during the cool season.

  1. Season exerts differential effects of ocean acidification and warming on growth and carbon metabolism of the seaweed Fucus vesiculosus in the western Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelika eGraiff

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Warming and acidification of the oceans as a consequence of increasing CO2-concentrations occur at large scales. Numerous studies have shown the impact of single stressors on individual species. However, studies on the combined effect of multiple stressors on a multi-species assemblage, which is ecologically much more realistic and relevant, are still scarce. Therefore, we orthogonally crossed the two factors warming and acidification in mesocosm experiments and studied their single and combined impact on the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus associated with its natural community (epiphytes and mesograzers in the Baltic Sea in all seasons (from April 2013 to April 2014. We superimposed our treatment factors onto the natural fluctuations of all environmental variables present in the Benthocosms in so-called delta-treatments. Thereby we compared the physiological responses of F. vesiculosus (growth and metabolites to the single and combined effects of natural Kiel Fjord temperatures and pCO2 conditions with a 5 °C temperature increase and/or pCO2 increase treatment (1100 ppm in the headspace above the mesocosms. Responses were also related to the factor photoperiod which changes over the course of the year. Our results demonstrate complex seasonal pattern. Elevated pCO2 positively affected growth of F. vesiculosus alone and/or interactively with warming. The response direction (additive, synergistic or antagonistic, however, depended on season and daylength. The effects were most obvious when plants were actively growing during spring and early summer. Our study revealed for the first time that it is crucial to always consider the impact of variable environmental conditions throughout all seasons. In summary, our study indicates that in future F. vesiculosus will be more affected by detrimental summer heat-waves than by ocean acidification although the latter consequently enhances growth throughout the year. The mainly negative influence of rising

  2. A warm-season comparison of WRF coupled to the CLM4.0, Noah-MP, and Bucket hydrology land surface schemes over the central USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Den Broeke, Matthew S.; Kalin, Andrew; Alavez, Jose Abraham Torres; Oglesby, Robert; Hu, Qi

    2017-11-01

    In climate modeling studies, there is a need to choose a suitable land surface model (LSM) while adhering to available resources. In this study, the viability of three LSM options (Community Land Model version 4.0 [CLM4.0], Noah-MP, and the five-layer thermal diffusion [Bucket] scheme) in the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF3.6) was examined for the warm season in a domain centered on the central USA. Model output was compared to Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data, a gridded observational dataset including mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation. Model output temperature, precipitation, latent heat (LH) flux, sensible heat (SH) flux, and soil water content (SWC) were compared to observations from sites in the Central and Southern Great Plains region. An overall warm bias was found in CLM4.0 and Noah-MP, with a cool bias of larger magnitude in the Bucket model. These three LSMs produced similar patterns of wet and dry biases. Model output of SWC and LH/SH fluxes were compared to observations, and did not show a consistent bias. Both sophisticated LSMs appear to be viable options for simulating the effects of land use change in the central USA.

  3. Lightning characteristics of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Mace L.; Franks, John R.; Suranovic, Katelyn R.; Barbachem, Brent; Cannon, Declan; Cooper, Stonie R.

    2016-06-01

    Derechos, or widespread, convectively induced wind storms, are a common warm season phenomenon in the Central and Eastern United States. These damaging and severe weather events are known to sweep quickly across large spatial regions of more than 400 km and produce wind speeds exceeding 121 km h-1. Although extensive research concerning derechos and their parent mesoscale convective systems already exists, there have been few investigations of the spatial and temporal distribution of associated cloud-to-ground lightning with these events. This study analyzes twenty warm season (May through August) derecho events between 2003 and 2013 in an effort to discern their lightning characteristics. Data used in the study included cloud-to-ground flash data derived from the National Lightning Detection Network, WSR-88D imagery from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, and damaging wind report data obtained from the Storm Prediction Center. A spatial and temporal analysis was conducted by incorporating these data into a geographic information system to determine the distribution and lightning characteristics of the environments of derecho producing mesoscale convective systems. Primary foci of this research include: (1) finding the approximate size of the lightning activity region for individual and combined event(s); (2) determining the intensity of each event by examining the density and polarity of lightning flashes; (3) locating areas of highest lightning flash density; and (4) to provide a lightning spatial analysis that outlines the temporal and spatial distribution of flash activity for particularly strong derecho producing thunderstorm episodes.

  4. Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Rigo

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data. In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm.

    The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation, are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%, while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%. Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms

  5. Analysis of warm season thunderstorms using an object-oriented tracking method based on radar and total lightning data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigo, T.; Pineda, N.; Bech, J.

    2010-09-01

    Monitoring thunderstorms activity is an essential part of operational weather surveillance given their potential hazards, including lightning, hail, heavy rainfall, strong winds or even tornadoes. This study has two main objectives: firstly, the description of a methodology, based on radar and total lightning data to characterise thunderstorms in real-time; secondly, the application of this methodology to 66 thunderstorms that affected Catalonia (NE Spain) in the summer of 2006. An object-oriented tracking procedure is employed, where different observation data types generate four different types of objects (radar 1-km CAPPI reflectivity composites, radar reflectivity volumetric data, cloud-to-ground lightning data and intra-cloud lightning data). In the framework proposed, these objects are the building blocks of a higher level object, the thunderstorm. The methodology is demonstrated with a dataset of thunderstorms whose main characteristics, along the complete life cycle of the convective structures (development, maturity and dissipation), are described statistically. The development and dissipation stages present similar durations in most cases examined. On the contrary, the duration of the maturity phase is much more variable and related to the thunderstorm intensity, defined here in terms of lightning flash rate. Most of the activity of IC and CG flashes is registered in the maturity stage. In the development stage little CG flashes are observed (2% to 5%), while for the dissipation phase is possible to observe a few more CG flashes (10% to 15%). Additionally, a selection of thunderstorms is used to examine general life cycle patterns, obtained from the analysis of normalized (with respect to thunderstorm total duration and maximum value of variables considered) thunderstorm parameters. Among other findings, the study indicates that the normalized duration of the three stages of thunderstorm life cycle is similar in most thunderstorms, with the longest

  6. Disentangling Seasonality and Mean Annual Precipitation in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: Insights from Coupled Plant Wax C and H Isotope Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galy, V.; Oppo, D.; Dubois, N.; Arbuszewski, J. A.; Mohtadi, M.; Schefuss, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

    2016-12-01

    There is ample evidence suggesting that rainfall distribution across the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) - a key component of the global climate system - has substantially varied over the last deglaciation. Yet, the precise nature of these hydroclimate changes remains to be elucidated. In particular, the relative importance of variations in precipitation seasonality versus annual precipitation amount is essentially unknown. Here we use a set of surface sediments from the IPWP covering a wide range of modern hydroclimate conditions to evaluate how plant wax stable isotope composition records rainfall distribution in the area. We focus on long chain fatty acids, which are exclusively produced by vascular plants living on nearby land and delivered to the ocean by rivers. We relate the C (δ13C) and H (δD) isotope composition of long chain fatty acids preserved in surface sediments to modern precipitation distribution and stable isotope composition in their respective source area. We show that: 1) δ13C values reflect vegetation distribution (in particular the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants) and are primarily recording precipitation seasonality (Dubois et al., 2014) and, 2) once corrected for plant fractionation effects, δD values reflect the amount-weighted average stable isotope composition of precipitation and are primarily recording annual precipitation amounts. We propose that combining the C and H isotope composition of long chain fatty acids thus allows independent reconstructions of precipitation seasonality and annual amounts in the IPWP. The practical implications for reconstructing past hydroclimate in the IPWP will be discussed.

  7. Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

  8. Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsyganov, A.N.; Aerts, R.; Nijs, I.; Cornelissen, J.H.C.; Beyens, L.

    2012-01-01

    Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming,

  9. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses and an assessment of the genetic and cytogenetic effects. Annual report, August 1, 1976--October 31, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, G.W.; Hanna, W.W.

    1977-08-01

    New techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of several warm season grasses are described. The economic value of radiation induced plant mutants and the genetic and cytogenetic effects of these treatments are discussed. Alterations in protein quality in pearl millet grain and improved varieties of Bermuda grass following radiation treatment are reported

  10. Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    KAUST Repository

    Luong, Thang

    2018-01-22

    A commonly noted problem in the simulation of warm season convection in the North American monsoon region has been the inability of atmospheric models at the meso-β scales (10 s to 100 s of kilometers) to simulate organized convection, principally mesoscale convective systems. With the use of convective parameterization, high precipitation biases in model simulations are typically observed over the peaks of mountain ranges. To address this issue, the Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization scheme has been modified with new diagnostic equations to compute the updraft velocity, the convective available potential energy closure assumption, and the convective trigger function. The scheme has been adapted for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). A numerical weather prediction-type simulation is conducted for the North American Monsoon Experiment Intensive Observing Period 2 and a regional climate simulation is performed, by dynamically downscaling. In both of these applications, there are notable improvements in the WRF model-simulated precipitation due to the better representation of organized, propagating convection. The use of the modified KF scheme for atmospheric model simulations may provide a more computationally economical alternative to improve the representation of organized convection, as compared to convective-permitting simulations at the kilometer scale or a super-parameterization approach.

  11. The Role of Vegetation in Mitigating Urban Land Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Munich, Germany during the Warm Season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadroddin Alavipanah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Urban Heat Island (UHI is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST and Land Use Land Cover (LULC, MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.

  12. Semidiurnal temperature changes caused by tidal front movements in the warm season in seabed habitats on the georges bank northern margin and their ecological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Vincent G; Valentine, Page C; Gallea, Leslie B

    2013-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow feature separating the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies demonstrated a strong tidal-mixing front during the warm season on the northern bank margin between thermally stratified water in the Gulf of Maine and mixed water on the bank. Tides transport warm water off the bank during flood tide and cool gulf water onto the bank during ebb tide. During 10 days in August 2009, we mapped frontal temperatures in five study areas along ∼100 km of the bank margin. The seabed "frontal zone", where temperature changed with frontal movment, experienced semidiurnal temperature maxima and minima. The tidal excursion of the frontal boundary between stratified and mixed water ranged 6 to 10 km. This "frontal boundary zone" was narrower than the frontal zone. Along transects perpendicular to the bank margin, seabed temperature change at individual sites ranged from 7.0°C in the frontal zone to 0.0°C in mixed bank water. At time series in frontal zone stations, changes during tidal cycles ranged from 1.2 to 6.1°C. The greatest rate of change (-2.48°C hr(-1)) occurred at mid-ebb. Geographic plots of seabed temperature change allowed the mapping of up to 8 subareas in each study area. The magnitude of temperature change in a subarea depended on its location in the frontal zone. Frontal movement had the greatest effect on seabed temperature in the 40 to 80 m depth interval. Subareas experiencing maximum temperature change in the frontal zone were not in the frontal boundary zone, but rather several km gulfward (off-bank) of the frontal boundary zone. These results provide a new ecological framework for examining the effect of tidally-driven temperature variability on the distribution, food resources, and reproductive success of benthic invertebrate and demersal fish species living in tidal front habitats.

  13. Variations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in ambient air during haze and non-haze episodes in warm seasons in Hangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Shengsheng; Wu, Zuliang; Yao, Shuiliang; Han, Jingyi; Tang, Xiujuan; Jiang, Boqiong

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during haze episodes in warm seasons, daily PM 2.5 and gaseous samples were collected from March to September 2015 in Hangzhou, China. Daily samples were further divided into four groups by the definition of haze according to visibility and relative humidity (RH), including non-haze (visibility, >10 km), light haze (visibility, 8-10 km, RH <90 %), medium haze (visibility, 5-8 km, RH <90 %), and heavy haze (visibility, <5 km, RH <90 %). Significantly higher concentrations of PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were found in haze days, but the mean PM 2.5 -bound PAH concentrations obviously decreased with the aggravation of haze pollution from light to heavy. The gas/particle partitioning coefficients of PAHs decreased from light-haze to heavy-haze episodes, which indicated that PM 2.5 -bound PAHs were restricted to adhere to the particulate phase with the aggravation of haze pollution. Absorption was considered the main mechanism of gas/particle partitioning of PAHs from gaseous to particulate phase. Analysis of air mass transport indicated that the PM 2.5 -bound PAH pollution in haze days was largely from regional sources but also significantly affected by long-range air mass transport. The inhalation cancer risk associated with PAHs exceeded the acceptable risk level markedly in both haze and non-haze days.

  14. Observed and Projected Changes in Thermal Growing Degree-Days and Growing Season and Their Divergent Responses to Warming over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, H.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS). By choosing 0°C, 5°C and 10°C, three key based temperatures (Tb) for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during the observed period (1960-2011) were developed using homogenized daily mean temperatures (Td) in 536 meteorological stations. In addition, the GDD10 and GS10 in China were projected under the representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCPs) during 1961-2099, using the Td (0.5°×0.5°) derived from five general circulation models (GCMs), after model evaluation. Advance in the start of the growing season (SOS; 4.86-6.71 days; SOS0 > SOS5 > SOS10) and delay in the end of the growing season (EOS; 4.32-6.19 days; EOS0 GDD5 > GDD10), in China as a whole. Each observed variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Increases in the GDD10 and GS10 would continue in the 21st century, causing northward shifts in the temperature zones. Finally in the long-term (2071-2099), the nationally average GDD10 and GS10 would be 279.1°C·d higher and 16.5 d longer for RCP 2.6, and 964.4°C·d higher and 50.3 d longer for RCP 8.5, relative to 1981-2010. Regionally, the GDD enhancement were stronger in the tropics, east, northeast and northwest China during the observed period, and tend to be in southern China in the future. The largest GS extensions are consistently in the eastern and southern parts of the Tibetan Alpine zone, particularly in the future. During the observed period, advance in SOS and delay in EOS drove the GS extensions in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone respectively. In the future, an advanced SOS drives the GS extension in the northern (> ca. 33°N) Tibetan Alpine zone, the mountainous areas in northeast China, and south of the Tropic of Cancer. The GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the temperature (GDD0 > GDD5 > GDD10

  15. Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

    2012-05-01

    Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  16. Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hengchun; Fetzer, Eric J; Wong, Sun; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn H

    2017-01-01

    Convective precipitation-localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent-is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.

  17. Semidiurnal Temperature Changes Caused by Tidal Front Movements in the Warm Season in Seabed Habitats on the Georges Bank Northern Margin and Their Ecological Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guida, Vincent G.; Valentine, Page C.; Gallea, Leslie B.

    2013-01-01

    Georges Bank is a large, shallow feature separating the Gulf of Maine from the Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies demonstrated a strong tidal-mixing front during the warm season on the northern bank margin between thermally stratified water in the Gulf of Maine and mixed water on the bank. Tides transport warm water off the bank during flood tide and cool gulf water onto the bank during ebb tide. During 10 days in August 2009, we mapped frontal temperatures in five study areas along ∼100 km of the bank margin. The seabed “frontal zone”, where temperature changed with frontal movment, experienced semidiurnal temperature maxima and minima. The tidal excursion of the frontal boundary between stratified and mixed water ranged 6 to 10 km. This “frontal boundary zone” was narrower than the frontal zone. Along transects perpendicular to the bank margin, seabed temperature change at individual sites ranged from 7.0°C in the frontal zone to 0.0°C in mixed bank water. At time series in frontal zone stations, changes during tidal cycles ranged from 1.2 to 6.1°C. The greatest rate of change (−2.48°C hr−1) occurred at mid-ebb. Geographic plots of seabed temperature change allowed the mapping of up to 8 subareas in each study area. The magnitude of temperature change in a subarea depended on its location in the frontal zone. Frontal movement had the greatest effect on seabed temperature in the 40 to 80 m depth interval. Subareas experiencing maximum temperature change in the frontal zone were not in the frontal boundary zone, but rather several km gulfward (off-bank) of the frontal boundary zone. These results provide a new ecological framework for examining the effect of tidally-driven temperature variability on the distribution, food resources, and reproductive success of benthic invertebrate and demersal fish species living in tidal front habitats. PMID:23405129

  18. A Comparison of the Diel Cycle of Modeled and Measured Latent Heat Flux During the Warm Season in a Colorado Subalpine Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Sean P.; Swenson, Sean C.; Wieder, William R.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.

    2018-03-01

    Precipitation changes the physiological characteristics of an ecosystem. Because land-surface models are often used to project changes in the hydrological cycle, modeling the effect of precipitation on the latent heat flux λE is an important aspect of land-surface models. Here we contrast conditionally sampled diel composites of the eddy-covariance fluxes from the Niwot Ridge Subalpine Forest AmeriFlux tower with the Community Land Model (CLM, version 4.5). With respect to measured λE during the warm season: for the day following above-average precipitation, λE was enhanced at midday by ≈40 W m-2 (relative to dry conditions), and nocturnal λE increased from ≈10 W m-2 in dry conditions to over 20 W m-2 in wet conditions. With default settings, CLM4.5 did not successfully model these changes. By increasing the amount of time that rainwater was retained by the canopy/needles, CLM was able to match the observed midday increase in λE on a dry day following a wet day. Stable nighttime conditions were problematic for CLM4.5. Nocturnal CLM λE had only a small (≈3 W m-2) increase during wet conditions, CLM nocturnal friction velocity u∗ was smaller than observed u∗, and CLM canopy air temperature was 2°C less than those measured at the site. Using observed u∗ as input to CLM increased λE; however, this caused CLM λE to be increased during both wet and dry periods. We suggest that sloped topography and the ever-present drainage flow enhanced nocturnal u∗ and λE. Such phenomena would not be properly captured by topographically blind land-surface models, such as CLM.

  19. Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

    2018-01-01

    Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

  20. Forage yield and nitrogen nutrition dynamics of warm-season native forage genotypes under two shading levels and in full sunlight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Santiago Barro

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The successful achievement of a highly productive understorey pasture in silvopastoral systems depends on the use of well-adapted forage genotypes, showing good agronomic performance and persistence under shading and grazing. In this study, the herbage dry matter yield (DMY and nitrogen nutrition dynamics were determined in three native warm-season grasses (Paspalum regnellii, Paspalum dilatatum and Paspalum notatum and a forage legume (Arachis pintoi under two shading levels compared with full sun. The experiment was conducted in the Campanha region, Bagé, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during two evaluation cycles (2008/2009 and 2009/2010. Three shade cloth levels (0%, 50% and 80% of light restriction were applied to the forage genotypes in a split plot design, in which shading levels were the main plot and forage genotypes were the subplots, with three replications. P. regnellii showed the highest accumulated DMY (1500 and 1700 g m-2, respectively, for the first and second evaluation cycles at all shading levels and showed no DMY decreased under the heavy shade (80%. Average DMY over the four genotypes under the 50% shade level was higher or equal compared with full sun. Influence of rainfall was observed on the DMY performance of all genotypes: the positive effect of moderate shading (50% on P. dilatatum and P. notatum DMY was associated to a low soil water availability status. Increased shading level resulted in high nitrogen nutrition index values on grasses, in comparison with full sun. All genotypes performed well under the moderate shading level, but the DMY of both P. regnellii and P. dilatatum and the herbage N content in P. notatum and A. pintoi of all genotypes stood out, showing that those main genotypes are promising to grow in silvopastoral systems at the Campanha region in southern Brazil.

  1. Effects of regional-scale and convective transports on tropospheric ozone chemistry revealed by aircraft observations during the wet season of the AMMA campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ancellet

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA fourth airborne campaign was conducted in July–August 2006 to study the chemical composition of the middle and upper troposphere in West Africa with the major objective to better understand the processing of chemical emissions by the West African Monsoon (WAM and its associated regional-scale and vertical transports. In particular, the french airborne experiment was organized around two goals. The first was to characterize the impact of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs on the ozone budget in the upper troposphere and the evolution of the chemical composition of these convective plumes as they move westward toward the Atlantic Ocean. The second objective was to discriminate the impact of remote sources of pollution over West Africa, including transport from the middle east, Europe, Asia and from southern hemispheric fires. Observations of O3, CO, NOx, H2O and hydroperoxide above West Africa along repeated meridional transects were coupled with transport analysis based on the FLEXPART lagrangian model. The cross analysis of trace gas concentrations and transport pathways revealed 5 types of air masses: convective uplift of industrial and urban emissions, convective uplift of biogenic emissions, slow advection from Cotonou polluted plumes near the coast, meridional transport of upper tropospheric air from the subtropical barrier region, and meridional transport of Southern Hemisphere (SH biomass burning emissions. O3/CO correlation plots and the correlation plots of H2O2 with a OH proxy revealed not only a control of the trace gas variability by transport processes but also significant photochemical reactivity in the mid- and upper troposphere. The study of four MCSs outflow showed contrasted chemical composition and air mass origins depending on the MCSs lifetime and latitudinal position. Favorables conditions for ozone

  2. Greenhouse gas flux under warm-season perennial C4 grasses across different soil and climate gradients on the Islands of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlowski, M. N.; Crow, S. E.; Sumiyoshi, Y.; Wells, J.; Kikkawa, H. R.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural soils can serve as either a sink or a source for atmospheric carbon (C) and other greenhouse gases (GHG). This is particularly true for tropical soils where influences from climate and soil gradients are wide ranging. Current estimates of GHG flux from soil are often under or overestimated due to high variability in sample sites and inconsistencies in land use and vegetation type, making extrapolation to new study systems difficult. This work aimed to identify patterns of trace fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) across two soil types and three species of warm season perennial C4 grasses: Pennisetum purpureum (Napier grass), Panicum maximum (Guinea grass) and Saccharum officinarum (sugar cane) on the islands of Oahu and Maui in Hawaii. Multiple static vented chambers were installed into replicate plots for each species; flux measurements were made during the growth, fertilization and harvest cycles at set time intervals for one hour and analyzed by gas chromatography. Initial results from Oahu indicate no significant differences in CO2 flux between the P. maximum and P. purpureum species after fertilization or at full growth. We observed an average flux of 143 mg m-2 h-1 and 155 mg m-2 h-1 for P. maximum and P. purpureum respectively at full growth for CO2 and 1.7 μg m-2 h-1and 0.3 μg m-2 h-1 for N2O. Additionally, N2O rates sampled after a typical fertilizer application were significantly greater than at full growth (p=0.0005) with flux rates of 25.2 μg m2h-1 and 30.3 μg m2h-1 for P. maximum and P. purpureum respectively. With a global warming potential of 310 for N2O, even short-term spikes following fertilizer application can cause long lasting effects of GHG emission from agricultural soils. CH4 flux was negligible for all species on the Oahu plots during these sample periods. Globally, water limitation is a major factor influencing the potential productivity of agricultural crops and the sustainability of

  3. The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: critical to world oceanography and world climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Deckker, Patrick

    2016-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool holds a unique place on the globe. It is a large area [>30 × 106 km2] that is characterised by permanent surface temperature >28 °C and is therefore called the `heat engine' of the globe. High convective clouds which can reach altitudes up to 15 km generate much latent heat in the process of convection and this area is therefore called the `steam engine' of the world. Seasonal and contrasting monsoonal activity over the region is the cause for a broad seasonal change of surface salinities, and since the area lies along the path of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt, it is coined the `dilution' basin due to the high incidence of tropical rain and, away from the equator, tropical cyclones contribute to a significant drop in sea water salinity. Discussion about what may happen in the future of the Warm Pool under global warming is presented together with a description of the Warm Pool during the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum when sea levels had dropped by ~125 m. A call for urgent monitoring of the IPWP area is justified on the grounds of the significance of this area for global oceanographic and climatological processes, but also because of the concerned threats to human population living there.

  4. Temperature-Driven Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohan, Richard J.; Vandegrift, Guy

    2003-02-01

    Warm air aloft is stable. This explains the lack of strong winds in a warm front and how nighttime radiative cooling can lead to motionless air that can trap smog. The stability of stratospheric air can be attributed to the fact that it is heated from above as ultraviolet radiation strikes the ozone layer. On the other hand, fluid heated from below is unstable and can lead to Bernard convection cells. This explains the generally turbulent nature of the troposphere, which receives a significant fraction of its heat directly from the Earth's warmer surface. The instability of cold fluid aloft explains the violent nature of a cold front, as well as the motion of Earth's magma, which is driven by radioactive heating deep within the Earth's mantle. This paper describes how both effects can be demonstrated using four standard beakers, ice, and a bit of food coloring.

  5. Development of new techniques of using irradiation in the genetic improvement of warm season grasses and an assessment of the genetic and cytogenetic effects. Progress report, November 1, 1977--October 31, 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, W.W.; Burton, G.W.

    1978-05-01

    Progress is reported on plant breeding programs for the genetic improvement of warm season grasses using irradiation as a tool. Data are included from studies on alteration of the protein quantity and quality in pearl millet grain by irradiation and mutation breeding; the effects of nitrogen and genotype on pearl millet grain; the effects of seed size on quality in pearl millet; irradiation breeding of sterile triploid turf Bermuda grasses; irradiation breeding of sterile coastcross-1, a forage grass, to increase winter hardiness; use of irradiation to induce resistance to rust disease; and an economic assessment of irradiation-induced mutants for plant breeding programs

  6. Upscaling the impact of convective overshooting (COV) through BRAMS: a continental and wet-season scale study of the water vapour (WV) budget in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, Abhinna; Rivière, Emmanuel; Marécal, Virginie; Rysman, Jean-François; Claud, Chantal; Burgalat, Jérémie

    2017-04-01

    The stratospheric water vapour (WV) has a conceding impact on the radiative and chemical budget of Earth's atmosphere. The convective overshooting (COV) at the tropics is well admitted for playing a role in transporting directly WV to the stratosphere. Nonetheless, its impact on the lower stratosphere is yet to be determined at global scale, as the satellite and other air-borne measurements are not of having fine enough resolution to quantify this impact at large scale. Therefore, efforts have been made to quantify the influence of COV over the WV budget in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through modelling. Our approach is to build two synthetic tropical wet-seasons; where one would be having only deep convection (DC) but no COV at all, and the second one would be having the COV, and in both cases the WV budget in the TTL would be estimated. Before that, a French-Brazilian TRO-pico campaign was carried out at Bauru, Brazil in order to understand the influence of COV on the WV budget in the TTL. The radio-sounding, and the small balloon-borne WV measurements from the campaign are being utilized to validate the model simulation. Brazilian version of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) is used with a single grid system to simulate a WV variability in a wet-season. Grell's convective parameterization with ensemble closure, microphysics with double moment scheme and 7 types of hydrometeors are incorporated to simulate the WV variability for a wet-season at the tropics. The grid size of simulation is chosen to be 20 km x 20 km horizontally and from surface to 30 km altitude, so that there cannot be COV at all, only DC due to such a relatively coarse resolution. The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses data are used every 6 hours for grid initialization and boundary conditions, and grid center nudging. The simulation is carried out for a full wet-season (Nov 2012 - Mar 2013) at Brazilian scale, so that it would

  7. Heat Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiji, Latif M.

    Professor Jiji's broad teaching experience lead him to select the topics for this book to provide a firm foundation for convection heat transfer with emphasis on fundamentals, physical phenomena, and mathematical modelling of a wide range of engineering applications. Reflecting recent developments, this textbook is the first to include an introduction to the challenging topic of microchannels. The strong pedagogic potential of Heat Convection is enhanced by the follow ing ancillary materials: (1) Power Point lectures, (2) Problem Solutions, (3) Homework Facilitator, and, (4) Summary of Sections and Chapters.

  8. Vertical Transport by Coastal Mesoscale Convective Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, K.; Kading, T.

    2016-12-01

    This work is part of an ongoing investigation of coastal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), including changes in vertical transport of boundary layer air by storms moving from inland to offshore. The density of a storm's cold pool versus that of the offshore marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), in part, determines the ability of the storm to successfully cross the coast, the mechanism driving storm propagation, and the ability of the storm to lift air from the boundary layer aloft. The ability of an MCS to overturn boundary layer air can be especially important over the eastern US seaboard, where warm season coastal MCSs are relatively common and where large coastal population centers generate concentrated regions of pollution. Recent work numerically simulating idealized MCSs in a coastal environment has provided some insight into the physical mechanisms governing MCS coastal crossing success and the impact on vertical transport of boundary layer air. Storms are simulated using a cloud resolving model initialized with atmospheric conditions representative of a Mid-Atlantic environment. Simulations are run in 2-D at 250 m horizontal resolution with a vertical resolution stretched from 100 m in the boundary layer to 250 m aloft. The left half of the 800 km domain is configured to represent land, while the right half is assigned as water. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to quantify the influence of varying MABL structure on MCS coastal crossing success and air transport, with MABL values representative of those observed over the western Mid-Atlantic during warm season. Preliminary results indicate that when the density of the cold pool is much greater than the MABL, the storm successfully crosses the coastline, with lifting of surface parcels, which ascend through the troposphere. When the density of the cold pool is similar to that of the MABL, parcels within the MABL remain at low levels, though parcels above the MABL ascend through the troposphere.

  9. Seasonal Oxygen Dynamics in a Warm Temperate Estuary: Effects of Hydrologic Variability on Measurements of Primary Production, Respiration, and Net Metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal responses in estuarine metabolism (primary production, respiration, and net metabolism) were examined using two complementary approaches. Total ecosystem metabolism rates were calculated from dissolved oxygen time series using Odum’s open water method. Water column rates...

  10. Warm Season Storms, Floods, and Tributary Sand Inputs below Glen Canyon Dam: Investigating Salience to Adaptive Management in the Context of a 10-Year Long Controlled Flooding Experiment in Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, S.; Melis, T. S.; Topping, D. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Eischeid, J.

    2013-12-01

    The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) strive to balance numerous, often competing, objectives, such as, water supply, hydropower generation, low flow maintenance, maximizing conservation of downstream tributary sand supply, endangered native fish, and other sociocultural resources of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. In this context, use of monitored and predictive information on the warm season floods (at point-to-regional scales) has been identified as lead-information for a new 10-year long controlled flooding experiment (termed the High-Flow Experiment Protocol) intended to determine management options for rebuilding and maintaining sandbars in Grand Canyon; an adaptive strategy that can potentially facilitate improved planning and dam operations. In this work, we focus on a key concern identified by the GCDAMP, related to the timing and volume of tributary sand input from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers (located 26 and 124 km below the dam, respectively) into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Episodic and intraseasonal variations (with links to equatorial and sub-tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability) in the southwest hydroclimatology are investigated to understand the magnitude, timing and spatial scales of warm season floods from this relatively small, but prolific sand producing drainage of the semi-arid Colorado Plateau. The coupled variations of the flood-driven sediment input (magnitude and timing) from these two drainages into the Colorado River are also investigated. The physical processes, including diagnosis of storms and moisture sources, are mapped alongside the planning and decision processes for the ongoing experimental flood releases from the Glen Canyon Dam which are aimed at achieving restoration and maintenance of sandbars and instream ecology. The GCDAMP represents one of the most visible and widely recognized

  11. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Shapiro

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May–November.The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.

  12. Convection index as a tool for trend analysis of intense summer storms in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaal, Ladislav; Molnar, Peter; Szolgay, Jan

    2013-04-01

    Convective summer thunderstorms are generally responsible for the most devastating floods in urban and small natural catchments. In this study we focus on the identification of the nature and magnitude of changes in the properties of intense summer storms of convective character in Switzerland in the last three decades. The study is based on precipitation records from the SwissMetNet (MeteoSwiss) network at 63 stations that cover altitudes ranging from 200 up to 3300 m a.s.l. over the period 1981-2012 (32 years). Additionally, the same stations also measure the number of lightning strikes within a range of 30 km from each station. In an accompanying contribution we describe the method how intensive summer storms can be reliably selected out of all storms in long and high resolution precipitation time series. On the basis of the statistical distributions and dependence among key storm characteristics at the event scale (total rainfall depth R, storm duration D, and peak intensity I) and using high resolution lightning data as a surrogate we defined a threshold intensity I* that differentiates between the events accompanied with lightning with an acceptably small probability of misclassification. This allowed us to identify intense summer events with convective character as those where I > I* regardless of their duration or total rainfall depth. The current study makes use of the threshold intensity I* for the definition of a seasonal convection index at each station (Llasat, 2001). This index gives us a measure of 'convectiveness', i.e. the total precipitation depth coming from convective storms relative to the total precipitation depth of all summer storms. We computed the convection index at all 63 stations and analyzed the series for trends. We found that the seasonal convection index increases at most of the stations in Switzerland and in approximately 20% of the cases this increase is statistically significant. This is likely a consequence of the fact that the

  13. Investigation of the differences between deepening and intensification for 500-hpa cyclones in central and East Mediterranean region during warm season of the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Spanos

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The maximum deepening rate per cyclone track is determined by the maximum height drop at the center of the cyclone (500-hPa low on the basis of all the 6-h successive steps in its life cycle. The geopotential height gradient is calculated over the entire low area and the calculation continued with the variation of the gradient in the successive steps. The maximum intensification rate per cyclone is then determined as the maximum increase of the gradient in the life cycle. Maximum deepening rate for the 500-hPa cyclones in the area does not exceed, on average, 12 gpm/6 h. Maximum intensification which is 1.4 gpm/100 Km*6 h on average, occurs in the early stages of the cyclone's life cycle. This on the average happens approximately 9 h after the first time the low is detected. At the gulf of Genoa and the Adriatic Sea, cyclones usually show the maximum intensification after the maximum deepening. At Turkey's cyclogenesis area, however, this order is reversed. The spatial distributions of maximum intensification in the three sub-periods, indicate that it mainly occurs over Seas during late warm periods and over land during early and middle warm periods. Such a behavior underlines the role of low-level instability in cyclone development.

  14. A study of the 21 March 2012 tornadic quasi linear convective system in Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bech, Joan; Arús, Joan; Castán, Salvador; Pineda, Nicolau; Rigo, Tomeu; Montanyà, Joan; van der Velde, Oscar

    2015-05-01

    This study presents a description of a quasi linear convective system that took place in Catalonia (NE Spain) on 21 March 2012 producing heavy rainfall, moderate lightning activity and a weak tornado in the village of Ivars d'Urgell around 19 UTC after local sunset. A post-event survey indicated EF0 and EF1 damage in houses of the village - roofs and ceilings, broken windows, fences and walls and trees knocked down - along a track approximately 4 km long and about 20 m wide. Doppler radar observations show that the parent thunderstorm that spawned the tornado was one of a series that developed along a convective line that moved from S to N, initiating convective activity in terms of precipitation and lightning in the Mediterranean Sea and moving inland in S Catalonia (Tarragona and Salou coastal areas, producing local flash floods). Convective activity remained several hours with series of thunderstorms developing along the same paths. The synoptic situation was dominated by a high pressure ridge extending from northern Africa to central Europe, with a closed maximum sea level pressure area around 1036 hPa over northern France, southern Germany and Austria. On the other hand a relative low pressure area seen on 850 hPa and upper levels was present over the Iberian Peninsula, favouring a southern maritime flow from the Mediterranean between the forward part of the low pressure area and the high pressure system which blocked the advance of the low to the east. In the study we examine both the synoptic environment and storm scale observations with Doppler radar and total lightning data (cloud to ground and intracloud flashes) that lead to this cool-season severe convective event which is remarkable given the fact that, unlike in this case, most reported tornadoes in the region occur during the warm season (with peaks in August and September) and during daylight hours (6 to 18 UTC).

  15. Seasonal ozone uptake by a warm-temperate mixed deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forest in western Japan estimated by the Penman–Monteith approach combined with a photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitao, Mitsutoshi; Komatsu, Masabumi; Hoshika, Yasutomo; Yazaki, Kenichi; Yoshimura, Kenichi; Fujii, Saori; Miyama, Takafumi; Kominami, Yuji

    2014-01-01

    Canopy-level stomatal conductance over a warm-temperate mixed deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forest in Japan was estimated by the Penman–Monteith approach, as compensated by a semi-empirical photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model, where photosynthesis, relative humidity, and CO 2 concentration were assumed to regulate stomatal conductance. This approach, using eddy covariance data and routine meteorological observations at a flux tower site, permits the continuous estimation of canopy-level O 3 uptake, even when the Penman–Monteith approach is unavailable (i.e. in case of direct evaporation from soil or wet leaves). Distortion was observed between the AOT40 exposure index and O 3 uptake through stomata, as AOT40 peaked in April, but with O 3 uptake occurring in July. Thus, leaf pre-maturation in the predominant deciduous broadleaf tree species (Quercus serrata) might suppress O 3 uptake in springtime, even when the highest O 3 concentrations were observed. -- Highlights: • We estimate canopy-level O 3 uptake in a warm-temperate mixed forest in Japan. • The Penman–Monteith approach is compensated by a photosynthesis-dependent model. • Stomatal conductance can be estimated, even in a partly-opened or wet canopy. • The estimated O 3 dose peaks in summer though O 3 exposure peaks in spring. -- Estimation of seasonal O 3 uptake over a mixed-temperate forest compensated by a photosynthesis-dependent stomatal model

  16. Microphysical and radiative effects of aerosols on warm clouds during the Amazon biomass burning season as observed by MODIS: impacts of water vapor and land cover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Ten Hoeve

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol, cloud, water vapor, and temperature profile data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS are utilized to examine the impact of aerosols on clouds during the Amazonian biomass burning season in Rondônia, Brazil. It is found that increasing background column water vapor (CWV throughout this transition season between the Amazon dry and wet seasons likely exerts a strong effect on cloud properties. As a result, proper analysis of aerosol-cloud relationships requires that data be stratified by CWV to account better for the influence of background meteorological variation. Many previous studies of aerosol-cloud interactions over Amazonia have ignored the systematic changes to meteorological factors during the transition season, leading to possible misinterpretation of their results. Cloud fraction (CF is shown to increase or remain constant with aerosol optical depth (AOD, depending on the value of CWV, whereas the relationship between cloud optical depth (COD and AOD is quite different. COD increases with AOD until AOD ~ 0.3, which is assumed to be due to the first indirect (microphysical effect. At higher values of AOD, COD is found to decrease with increasing AOD, which may be due to: (1 the inhibition of cloud development by absorbing aerosols (radiative effect/semi-direct effect and/or (2 a possible retrieval artifact in which the measured reflectance in the visible is less than expected from a cloud top either from the darkening of clouds through the addition of carbonaceous biomass burning aerosols within or above clouds or subpixel dark surface contamination in the measured cloud reflectance. If (1 is a contributing mechanism, as we suspect, then an empirically-derived increasing function between cloud drop number and aerosol concentration, assumed in a majority of global climate models, is inaccurate since these models do not include treatment of aerosol absorption in and around clouds. The relationship between

  17. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  18. Life Cycle of Midlatitude Deep Convective Systems in a Lagrangian Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhe; Dong, Xiquan; Xie, Baike; McFarlane, Sally A.; Kennedy, Aaron; Lin, Bing; Minnis, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Deep Convective Systems (DCSs) consist of intense convective cores (CC), large stratiform rain (SR) regions, and extensive non-precipitating anvil clouds (AC). This study focuses on the evolution of these three components and the factors that affect convective AC production. An automated satellite tracking method is used in conjunction with a recently developed multi-sensor hybrid classification to analyze the evolution of DCS structure in a Lagrangian framework over the central United States. Composite analysis from 4221 tracked DCSs during two warm seasons (May-August, 2010-2011) shows that maximum system size correlates with lifetime, and longer-lived DCSs have more extensive SR and AC. Maximum SR and AC area lag behind peak convective intensity and the lag increases linearly from approximately 1-hour for short-lived systems to more than 3-hours for long-lived ones. The increased lag, which depends on the convective environment, suggests that changes in the overall diabatic heating structure associated with the transition from CC to SR and AC could prolong the system lifetime by sustaining stratiform cloud development. Longer-lasting systems are associated with up to 60% higher mid-tropospheric relative humidity and up to 40% stronger middle to upper tropospheric wind shear. Regression analysis shows that the areal coverage of thick AC is strongly correlated with the size of CC, updraft strength, and SR area. Ambient upper tropospheric wind speed and wind shear also play an important role for convective AC production where for systems with large AC (radius greater than 120-km) they are 24% and 20% higher, respectively, than those with small AC (radius=20 km).

  19. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  20. Environments of Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Central United States in Convection Permitting Climate Simulations: Long-Lived Mesoscale Convective Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Qing [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Houze, Robert A. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle WA USA; Leung, L. Ruby [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Feng, Zhe [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA

    2017-12-27

    Continental-scale convection-permitting simulations of the warm seasons of 2011 and 2012 reproduce realistic structure and frequency distribution of lifetime and event mean precipitation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the central United States. Analysis is performed to determine the environmental conditions conducive to generating the longest-lived MCSs and their subsequent interactions. The simulations show that MCSs systematically form over the Great Plains ahead of a trough in the westerlies in combination with an enhanced low-level jet from the Gulf of Mexico. These environmental properties at the time of storm initiation are most prominent for the MCSs that persist for the longest times. Systems reaching 9 h or more in lifetime exhibit feedback to the environment conditions through diabatic heating in the MCS stratiform regions. As a result, the parent synoptic-scale wave is strengthened as a divergent perturbation develops over the MCS at high levels, while a cyclonic circulation perturbation develops in the midlevels of the trough, where the vertical gradient of heating in the MCS region is maximized. The quasi-balanced mesoscale vortex helps to maintain the MCS over a long period of time by feeding dry, cool air into the environment at the rear of the MCS region, so that the MCS can draw in air that increases the evaporative cooling that helps maintain the MCS. At lower levels the south-southeasterly jet of warm moist air from the Gulf is enhanced in the presence of the synoptic-scale wave. That moisture supply is essential to the continued redevelopment of the MCS.

  1. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  2. Effects of air pollution and seasonality on the respiratory symptoms and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) of outpatients with chronic respiratory disease in Ulaanbaatar: pilot study for the comparison of the cold and warm seasons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakao, Motoyuki; Yamauchi, Keiko; Ishihara, Yoko; Solongo, Bandi; Ichinnorov, Dashtseren

    2016-01-01

    This study was performed to investigate the effects of air pollution and seasonality on the respiratory symptoms and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) of outpatients with respiratory diseases in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Subjects were outpatients who visited the hospital with chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) or bronchial asthma (BA) in March. Their symptoms and HR-QoL were evaluated using a questionnaire including the SF-36v2 and COOP/WONCA charts in March, May and July. PM2.5 was sampled in March and July in Ulaanbaatar, and its composition was analyzed. Patients with COPD or BA showed higher prevalence of respiratory symptoms than the control subjects in each month. For HR-QoL, all subscales worsened in the patients than in the control group in March. Although the HR-QoL of the COPD and control groups were not significantly changed through the surveys, some subscales of the BA group showed remarkable improvement in July as compared to March. Daily means of PM2.5 in March were significantly higher than those in July. Carbon and ionic component concentrations, except for magnesium and calcium ions, were significantly higher in March than July. Mass concentrations of some metallic components were also significantly higher in March than July. The percentage of nitrate ion in PM2.5 was significantly higher in March when compared to that in July. These results suggested that the symptoms in the COPD and BA groups were caused by the disease, and the association with air pollution or seasonality remained unclear. However, the effects of air pollution and seasonality on the HR-QoL were significant in the patients with BA.

  3. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  4. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  5. Projected Increase in Lightning Strikes in the United States Due to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romps, D. M.; Seeley, J.; Vollaro, D.; Molinari, J.

    2014-12-01

    Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. The lightning flash rate is proposed here to be proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation is found to explain the majority of variance in the time series of total cloud-to-ground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS) on timescales ranging from diurnal to seasonal. The observations reveal that storms convert the CAPE of water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of about 1%. This proxy can be applied to global climate models, which provide predictions for the increase in lightning due to global warming. Results from 11 GCMs will be shown.

  6. Warm season precipitation signal in δ2 H values of wood lignin methoxyl groups from high elevation larch trees in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riechelmann, Dana F C; Greule, Markus; Siegwolf, Rolf T W; Anhäuser, Tobias; Esper, Jan; Keppler, Frank

    2017-10-15

    In this study, we tested stable hydrogen isotope ratios of wood lignin methoxyl groups (δ 2 H methoxyl values) as a palaeoclimate proxy in dendrochronology. This is a quite new method in the field of dendrochronology and the sample preparation is much simpler than the methods used before to measure δ 2 H values from wood. We measured δ 2 H methoxyl values in high elevation larch trees (Larix decidua Mill.) from Simplon Valley (southern Switzerland). Thirty-seven larch trees were sampled and five individuals analysed for their δ 2 H methoxyl values at annual (1971-2009) and pentadal resolution (1746-2009). The δ 2 H methoxyl values were measured as CH 3 I released upon treatment of the dried wood samples with hydroiodic acid. 10-90 μL from the head-space were injected into the gas chromatography/high-temperature conversion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/HTC-IRMS) system. Testing the climate response of the δ 2 H methoxyl values, the annually resolved series show a positive correlation of r = 0.60 with June/July precipitation. The pentadally resolved δ 2 H methoxyl series do not show any significant correlation to climate parameters. Increased precipitation during June and July, which are on average warm and relatively dry months, results in higher δ 2 H values of the xylem water and, therefore, higher δ 2 H values in the lignin methoxyl groups. Therefore, we suggest that δ 2 H methoxyl values of high elevation larch trees might serve as a summer precipitation proxy. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Seasonal and annual variation in planktonic foraminiferal fluxes including warm period related El Niño in the northwestern North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroyanagi, A.; Kawahata, H.; Nishi, H.; Honda, M. C.

    2007-12-01

    Planktonic foraminifera provide a record of the upper ocean environment through their species assemblage and individual tests. To investigate the relationship between foraminifera and oceanographic conditions and the impact of El Niño on foraminifera, we analyzed foraminiferal fluxes and relative abundances by using sediment trap samples collected biweekly at three sites in the northwestern North Pacific: Site 40N (39 °60'N, 165 °00'E), Site KNOT (43 °58'N, 155 °03'E), and Site 50N (50 °01'N, 165 °02'E) from 1998- 2001, a period that included an El Niño effect. Based on foraminiferal production and assemblage composition, we divided the sampling duration into several periods during which certain characteristic oceanographic properties were observed. These sampling periods were classified into five types (I-V) based upon four factors: 1) the predominant foraminiferal group, 2) total foraminiferal fluxes (TFFs), 3) organic matter (OM) fluxes, and 4) hydrographic conditions, which included sea surface temperature (SST) and thermal structure. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foraminifera were closely related to water mass properties in addition to SST. If species compositions were the same, then water mass properties were the most important factors affecting the seasonal variation of foraminiferal abundance in the northwestern North Pacific. Although one of the major controlling factors for foraminiferal fluxes is food availability, the controlling factors for each type (types I-V) are different because of specific oceanographic situations, such as phytoplankton blooms, which result in an excess food supply for foraminifera. At Site KNOT in 1998, SST was remarkably high because of El Niño, and high surface temperatures and weak winds would have lowered nutrient supply and intensified water column stratification, resulting in the relatively low fluxes of total foraminifera, N. pachyderma, and G. bulloides, and the high fluxes of N. dutertrei that

  8. Convective sources of trajectories traversing the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.-S. Tissier

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Transit properties across the tropical tropopause layer are studied using extensive forward and backward Lagrangian diabatic trajectories between cloud tops and the reference surface 380 K. After dividing the tropical domain into 11 subregions according to the distribution of land and convection, we estimate the contribution of each region to the upward mass flux across the 380 K surface and to the vertical distribution of convective sources and transit times over the period 2005–2008. The good agreement between forward and backward statistics is the basis of the results presented here. It is found that about 85 % of the tropical parcels at 380 K originate from convective sources throughout the year. From November to April, the sources are dominated by the warm pool which accounts for up to 70 % of the upward flux. During boreal summer, the Asian monsoon region is the largest contributor with similar contributions from the maritime and continental parts of the region; however, the vertical distributions and transit times associated with these two subregions are very different. Convective sources are generally higher over the continental part of the Asian monsoon region, with shorter transit times. We estimate the monthly averaged upward mass flux on the 380 K surface and show that the contribution from convective outflow accounts for 80 % on average and explains most of its seasonal variations. The largest contributor to the convective flux is the South Asian Pacific region (warm pool at 39 % throughout the year followed by oceanic regions surrounding continental Asia at 18 % and Africa at 10.8 %. Continental Asian lowlands account for 8 %. The Tibetan Plateau is a minor overall contributor (0.8 %, but transport from convective sources in this region is very efficient due to its central location beneath the Asian upper level anticyclone. The core results are robust to uncertainties in data and methods, but the vertical source

  9. A Novel Observation-Guided Approach for Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by the DOE ACME Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Z.; Ma, P. L.; Hardin, J. C.; Houze, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the largest type of convective storms that develop when convection aggregates and induces mesoscale circulation features. Over North America, MCSs contribute over 60% of the total warm-season precipitation and over half of the extreme daily precipitation in the central U.S. Our recent study (Feng et al. 2016) found that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in this region are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lived MCSs*. To date, global climate models typically do not run at a resolution high enough to explicitly simulate individual convective elements and may not have adequate process representations for MCSs, resulting in a large deficiency in projecting changes of the frequency of extreme precipitation events in future climate. In this study, we developed a novel observation-guided approach specifically designed to evaluate simulated MCSs in the Department of Energy's climate model, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME). The ACME model has advanced treatments for convection and subgrid variability and for this study is run at 25 km and 100 km grid spacings. We constructed a robust MCS database consisting of over 500 MCSs from 3 warm-season observations by applying a feature-tracking algorithm to 4-km resolution merged geostationary satellite and 3-D NEXRAD radar network data over the Continental US. This high-resolution MCS database is then down-sampled to the 25 and 100 km ACME grids to re-characterize key MCS properties. The feature-tracking algorithm is adapted with the adjusted characteristics to identify MCSs from ACME model simulations. We demonstrate that this new analysis framework is useful for evaluating ACME's warm-season precipitation statistics associated with MCSs, and provides insights into the model process representations related to extreme precipitation events for future improvement. *Feng, Z., L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze, C. D. Burleyson

  10. Associations between ozone, PM2.5, and four pollen types on emergency department pediatric asthma events during the warm season in New Jersey: a case-crossover study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Jessie A; Bielory, Leonard; Fagliano, Jerald A

    2014-07-01

    Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases among school-aged children in the United States. Environmental respiratory irritants exacerbate asthma among children. Understanding the impact of a variety of known and biologically plausible environmental irritants and triggers among children in New Jersey - ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), tree pollen, weed pollen, grass pollen and ragweed - would allow for informed public health interventions. Time-stratified case-crossover design was used to study the transient impact of ozone, PM2.5 and pollen on the acute onset of pediatric asthma. Daily emergency department visits were obtained for children aged 3-17 years with a primary diagnosis of asthma during the warm season (April through September), 2004-2007 (inclusive). Bi-directional control sampling was used to select two control periods for each case for a total of 65,562 inclusion days. Since the period of exposure prior to emergency department visit may be the most clinically relevant, lag exposures were investigated (same day (lag0), 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 as well as 3-day and 5-day moving averages). Multivariable conditional logistic regression controlling for holiday, school-in-session indicator, and 3-day moving average for temperature and relative humidity was used to examine the associations. Odds ratios are based on interquartile range (IQR) increases or 10 unit increases when IQR ranges were narrow. Single-pollutant models as well as multipollutant models were examined. Stratification on gender, race, ethnicity and socioeconomic status was explored. The associations with ozone and PM2.5 were strongest on the same day (lag0) of the emergency department visit (RR IQR=1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06) and (RR IQR=1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04), respectively, with a decreasing lag effect. Tree and weed pollen were associated with pediatric ED visits; the largest magnitudes of association was with the 5-day average (RR IQR=1.23, 95% CI 1.21-1.25) and (RR 10=1.13, 95% CI 1

  11. Southern Ocean Convection and tropical telleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2014-12-01

    We show that Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures in the latest generation of Earth System Models exhibit two major modes of variation, one driven by deep convection, the other by tropical variability. We perform a CMIP5 model intercomparison to understand why different climate models represent SO variability so differently in long, control simulations. We show that multiyear variability in Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can in turn influence oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropics on short (atmospheric) time-scales. We argue that the strength and pattern of SO-tropical teleconnections depends on the intensity of SO deep convection. Periodic convection in the SO is a feature of most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al., 2014). Models show a wide distribution in the spatial extent, periodicity and intensity of their SO convection, with some models convecting most of the time, and some showing very little convection. In a highly convective coupled model, we find that multidecadal variability in SO and global SSTs, as well as SO heat storage are driven by Weddell Sea convective variability, with convective decades relatively warm due to the heat released from the deep southern ocean and non-convective decades cold due to the subsurface storage of heat. Furthermore, pulses of SO convection drive SST and sea ice variations, influencing absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radiation, wind, cloud and precipitation patterns, with climatic implications for the low latitudes via fast atmospheric teleconnections. We suggest that these high-low latitude teleconnection mechanisms are relevant for understanding hiatus decades. Additionally, Southern Ocean deep convection varied significantly during past, natural climate changes such as during the last deglaciation. Weddell Sea open convection was recently weakened, likely as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing and the resulting surface freshening. Our study opens up the

  12. A Contribution by Ice Nuclei to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xiping; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Zhang, Minghua; Hou, Arthur Y.; Xie, Shaocheng; Lang, Stephen; Li, Xiaowen; Starr, David O.; Li, Xiaofan

    2009-01-01

    Ice nuclei (IN) significantly affect clouds via supercooled droplets, that in turn modulate atmospheric radiation and thus climate change. Since the IN effect is relatively strong in stratiform clouds but weak in convective ones, the overall effect depends on the ratio of stratiform to convective cloud amount. In this paper, 10 years of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite data are analyzed to confirm that stratiform precipitation fraction increases with increasing latitude, which implies that the IN effect is stronger at higher latitudes. To quantitatively evaluate the IN effect versus latitude, large-scale forcing data from ten field campaigns are used to drive a CRM (cloud-resolving model) to generate longterm cloud simulations. As revealed in the simulations, the increase in the net downward radiative flux at the TOA (top of the atmosphere) from doubling the current IN concentrations is larger at higher latitude, which is attributed to the meridional tendency in the stratiform precipitation fraction. Surface warming from doubling the IN concentrations, based on the radiative balance of the globe, is compared with that from anthropogenic COZ . It is found that the former effect is stronger than the latter in middle and high latitudes but not in the Tropics. With regard to the impact of IN on global warming, there are two factors to consider: the radiative effect from increasing the IN concentration and the increase in IN concentration itself. The former relies on cloud ensembles and thus varies mainly with latitude. In contrast, the latter relies on IN sources (e.g., the land surface distribution) and thus varies not only with latitude but also longitude. Global desertification and industrialization provide clues on the geographic variation of the increase in IN concentration since pre-industrial times. Thus, their effect on global warming can be inferred and then be compared with observations. A general match in geographic and seasonal

  13. Evaluation of a Mesoscale Convective System in Variable-Resolution CESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, A. E.; Jablonowski, C.

    2017-12-01

    Warm season precipitation over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) follows a well observed diurnal pattern of variability, peaking at night-time, due to the eastward propagation of mesoscale convection systems that develop over the eastern slopes of the Rockies in the late afternoon. While most climate models are unable to adequately capture the organization of convection and characteristic pattern of precipitation over this region, models with high enough resolution to explicitly resolve convection show improvement. However, high resolution simulations are computationally expensive and, in the case of regional climate models, are subject to boundary conditions. Newly developed variable resolution global climate models strike a balance between the benefits of high-resolution regional climate models and the large-scale dynamics of global climate models and low computational cost. Recently developed parameterizations that are insensitive to the model grid scale provide a way to improve model performance. Here, we present an evaluation of the newly available Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) parameterization scheme in a suite of variable-resolution CESM simulations with resolutions ranging from 110 km to 7 km within a regionally refined region centered over the SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site. Simulations utilize the hindcast approach developed by the Department of Energy's Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) for the assessment of climate models. We limit our evaluation to a single mesoscale convective system that passed over the region on May 24, 2008. The effects of grid-resolution on the timing and intensity of precipitation, as well as, on the transition from shallow to deep convection are assessed against ground-based observations from the SGP ARM site, satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis.

  14. CONVECTION IN CONDENSIBLE-RICH ATMOSPHERES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ding, F. [Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Pierrehumbert, R. T., E-mail: fding@uchicago.edu [Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU (United Kingdom)

    2016-05-01

    Condensible substances are nearly ubiquitous in planetary atmospheres. For the most familiar case—water vapor in Earth’s present climate—the condensible gas is dilute, in the sense that its concentration is everywhere small relative to the noncondensible background gases. A wide variety of important planetary climate problems involve nondilute condensible substances. These include planets near or undergoing a water vapor runaway and planets near the outer edge of the conventional habitable zone, for which CO{sub 2} is the condensible. Standard representations of convection in climate models rely on several approximations appropriate only to the dilute limit, while nondilute convection differs in fundamental ways from dilute convection. In this paper, a simple parameterization of convection valid in the nondilute as well as dilute limits is derived and used to discuss the basic character of nondilute convection. The energy conservation properties of the scheme are discussed in detail and are verified in radiative-convective simulations. As a further illustration of the behavior of the scheme, results for a runaway greenhouse atmosphere for both steady instellation and seasonally varying instellation corresponding to a highly eccentric orbit are presented. The latter case illustrates that the high thermal inertia associated with latent heat in nondilute atmospheres can damp out the effects of even extreme seasonal forcing.

  15. On the Land-Ocean Contrast of Tropical Convection and Microphysics Statistics Derived from TRMM Satellite Signals and Global Storm-Resolving Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsui, Toshihisa; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Satoh, Masaki; Hashino, Tempei; Kubota, Takuji

    2016-01-01

    A 14-year climatology of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) collocated multi-sensor signal statistics reveal a distinct land-ocean contrast as well as geographical variability of precipitation type, intensity, and microphysics. Microphysics information inferred from the TRMM precipitation radar and Microwave Imager (TMI) show a large land-ocean contrast for the deep category, suggesting continental convective vigor. Over land, TRMM shows higher echo-top heights and larger maximum echoes, suggesting taller storms and more intense precipitation, as well as larger microwave scattering, suggesting the presence of morelarger frozen convective hydrometeors. This strong land-ocean contrast in deep convection is invariant over seasonal and multi-year time-scales. Consequently, relatively short-term simulations from two global storm-resolving models can be evaluated in terms of their land-ocean statistics using the TRMM Triple-sensor Three-step Evaluation via a satellite simulator. The models evaluated are the NASA Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) and the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud Atmospheric Model (NICAM). While both simulations can represent convective land-ocean contrasts in warm precipitation to some extent, near-surface conditions over land are relatively moisture in NICAM than MMF, which appears to be the key driver in the divergent warm precipitation results between the two models. Both the MMF and NICAM produced similar frequencies of large CAPE between land and ocean. The dry MMF boundary layer enhanced microwave scattering signals over land, but only NICAM had an enhanced deep convection frequency over land. Neither model could reproduce a realistic land-ocean contrast in in deep convective precipitation microphysics. A realistic contrast between land and ocean remains an issue in global storm-resolving modeling.

  16. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, G. I.; Wobus, F.; Aleynik, D. L.

    2011-02-01

    convection events is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the Bottom Shelf Waters significantly reduces during the warm season. The time series of temperature in the BSW is highly correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters in the deep sea thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the Western Black Sea shelf than winter convection on the shelf itself.

  17. Changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, K. L.; Prein, A. F.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.

    2017-11-01

    Novel high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the US employing the pseudo-global warming approach are used to investigate changes in the convective population and thermodynamic environments in a future climate. Two continuous 13-year simulations were conducted using (1) ERA-Interim reanalysis and (2) ERA-Interim reanalysis plus a climate perturbation for the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulations adequately reproduce the observed precipitation diurnal cycle, indicating that they capture organized and propagating convection that most climate models cannot adequately represent. This study shows that weak to moderate convection will decrease and strong convection will increase in frequency in a future climate. Analysis of the thermodynamic environments supporting convection shows that both convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increase downstream of the Rockies in a future climate. Previous studies suggest that CAPE will increase in a warming climate, however a corresponding increase in CIN acts as a balancing force to shift the convective population by suppressing weak to moderate convection and provides an environment where CAPE can build to extreme levels that may result in more frequent severe convection. An idealized investigation of fundamental changes in the thermodynamic environment was conducted by shifting a standard atmospheric profile by ± 5 °C. When temperature is increased, both CAPE and CIN increase in magnitude, while the opposite is true for decreased temperatures. Thus, even in the absence of synoptic and mesoscale variations, a warmer climate will provide more CAPE and CIN that will shift the convective population, likely impacting water and energy budgets on Earth.

  18. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  19. National Convective Weather Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCWF is an automatically generated depiction of: (1) current convection and (2) extrapolated signficant current convection. It is a supplement to, but does NOT...

  20. Cumulus convection and the terrestrial water-vapor distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Leo J.

    1988-01-01

    Cumulus convection plays a significant role in determining the structure of the terrestrial water vapor field. Cumulus convection acts directly on the moisture field by condensing and precipitating water vapor and by redistributing water vapor through cumulus induced eddy circulations. The mechanisms by which cumulus convection influences the terrestrial water vapor distribution is outlined. Calculations using a theory due to Kuo is used to illustrate the mechanisms by which cumulus convection works. Understanding of these processes greatly aids the ability of researchers to interpret the seasonal and spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapor by providing information on the nature of sources and sinks and the global circulation.

  1. Land surface sensitivity of mesoscale convective systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tournay, Robert C.

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are important contributors to the hydrologic cycle in many regions of the world as well as major sources of severe weather. MCSs continue to challenge forecasters and researchers alike, arising from difficulties in understanding system initiation, propagation, and demise. One distinct type of MCS is that formed from individual convective cells initiated primarily by daytime heating over high terrain. This work is aimed at improving our understanding of the land surface sensitivity of this class of MCS in the contiguous United States. First, a climatology of mesoscale convective systems originating in the Rocky Mountains and adjacent high plains from Wyoming southward to New Mexico is developed through a combination of objective and subjective methods. This class of MCS is most important, in terms of total warm season precipitation, in the 500 to 1300m elevations of the Great Plains (GP) to the east in eastern Colorado to central Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Examining MCSs by longevity, short lasting MCSs (15 hrs) reveals that longer lasting systems tend to form further south and have a longer track with a more southerly track. The environment into which the MCS is moving showed differences across commonly used variables in convection forecasting, with some variables showing more favorable conditions throughout (convective inhibition, 0-6 km shear and 250 hPa wind speed) ahead of longer lasting MCSs. Other variables, such as convective available potential energy, showed improving conditions through time for longer lasting MCSs. Some variables showed no difference across longevity of MCS (precipitable water and large-scale vertical motion). From subsets of this MCS climatology, three regions of origin were chosen based on the presence of ridgelines extending eastward from the Rocky Mountains known to be foci for convection initiation and subsequent MCS formation: Southern Wyoming (Cheyenne Ridge), Colorado (Palmer divide) and

  2. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  3. On the recent warming in the subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy over South Asian Monsoon region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Gupta, A.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.

    2017-12-01

    In order to explain monsoon circulation, surface temperature gradients described as most traditional concept. However, it cannot explain certain important aspects of monsoon circulation. Later, convective quasi-equilibrium framework and vertically integrated atmospheric energy budget has become recognized theories to explain the monsoon circulation. In this article, same theories were analyzed and observed for the duration 1979-2010 over south Asian summer monsoon region. With the help of NCEP-R2, NOAA 20th Century, and Era-Interim reanalysis an important feature was noticed pertained to subcloud layer entropy and vertical moist static energy. In the last 32 years, subcloud layer entropy and vertically integrated moist static energy has shown significant seasonal warming all over the region with peak over the poleward flank of the cross-equatorial cell. The important reason related to the warming was found to be increase in surface enthalpy fluxes. Instead, other dynamical contributions pertained to the warming was also observed. Increase in positive anomalies of vertical advection of moist static energy over northern Bay of Bengal, Central India, Peninsular India, Eastern Arabian Sea, and Equatorial Indian Ocean was found to be an important dynamic factor contributing for warming of vertically integrated moist static energy. Along with it vertical moist stability has also supported the argument. Similar interpretations were perceived in the AMIP simulation of CCSM4 model. Further modeling experiments on this warming will be helpful to know the exact mechanism behind it.

  4. The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Keller

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW that enables changes in lapse rate.The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

  5. The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Michael; Kröner, Nico; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lüthi, Daniel; Schmidli, Juerg; Stengel, Martin; Stöckli, Reto; Schär, Christoph

    2018-04-01

    Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM) and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM) are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW) using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW) that enables changes in lapse rate. The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

  6. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  7. Comparing convective heat fluxes derived from thermodynamics to a radiative-convective model and GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhara, Chirag; Renner, Maik; Kleidon, Axel

    2015-04-01

    The convective transport of heat and moisture plays a key role in the climate system, but the transport is typically parameterized in models. Here, we aim at the simplest possible physical representation and treat convective heat fluxes as the result of a heat engine. We combine the well-known Carnot limit of this heat engine with the energy balances of the surface-atmosphere system that describe how the temperature difference is affected by convective heat transport, yielding a maximum power limit of convection. This results in a simple analytic expression for convective strength that depends primarily on surface solar absorption. We compare this expression with an idealized grey atmosphere radiative-convective (RC) model as well as Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations at the grid scale. We find that our simple expression as well as the RC model can explain much of the geographic variation of the GCM output, resulting in strong linear correlations among the three approaches. The RC model, however, shows a lower bias than our simple expression. We identify the use of the prescribed convective adjustment in RC-like models as the reason for the lower bias. The strength of our model lies in its ability to capture the geographic variation of convective strength with a parameter-free expression. On the other hand, the comparison with the RC model indicates a method for improving the formulation of radiative transfer in our simple approach. We also find that the latent heat fluxes compare very well among the approaches, as well as their sensitivity to surface warming. What our comparison suggests is that the strength of convection and their sensitivity in the climatic mean can be estimated relatively robustly by rather simple approaches.

  8. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  9. Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

    2015-06-01

    Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

    2014-09-01

    Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

  11. Biomass Smoke Influences on Deep Convection during the 2011 Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, X.; Logan, T.; Xi, B.

    2015-12-01

    Three deep convective cloud cases were selected during the 2011 Mid-Latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). Although biomass burning smoke advected from Mexico and Central America was the dominant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) for deep convective cloud formation, the 11 May, 20 May, and 23 May cases exhibited different convective characteristics. The convection in the 11 May and 23 May cases formed in smoke laden environments in the presence of convective available potential energy (CAPE) values exceeding 1000 m2 s-2 and 3000 m2 s-2 along with low-level (0-1 km) shear of 10.3 m s-1 and 5.1 m s-1, respectively. The 11 May case had linear convection while the 23 May case featured discrete supercells. The 20 May case featured elevated linear convection that formed in a more moist environment with cleaner aerosol conditions, weak CAPE (9 km) suggesting a warm rain suppression mechanism caused by a combination of strong aerosol loading, large CAPE, and weak low-level wind shear. The observed results for the 20 May and 23 May cases agree well with recent modeling studies that simulated the convection and precipitation in these cases. Furthermore, the modeling of the 11 May case is suggested since the abundant amount of smoke CCN did not greatly enhance the overall precipitation amount and could be a possible aerosol-induced precipitation suppression case.

  12. Ground level air convection produces frost damage patterns in turfgrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerson, Bruce J; Beier, Richard A; Martin, Dennis L

    2015-11-01

    Frost injury patterns are commonly observed on the warm-season turfgrass species bermudagrass (Cynodon species Rich.), zoysiagrass (Zoysia species Willd.), and buffalograss [Bouteloua dactyloides (Nutt.) J.T. Columbus] in cool-temperate and subtropical zones. Qualitative observations of these injury patterns are presented and discussed. A model for the formation of such patterns based on thermal instability and convection of air is presented. The characteristic length scale of the observed frost pattern injury requires a temperature profile that decreases with height from the soil to the turfgrass canopy surface followed by an increase in temperature with height above the turfgrass canopy. This is justified by extending the earth temperature theory to include a turf layer with atmosphere above it. Then the theory for a thermally unstable layer beneath a stable region by Ogura and Kondo is adapted to a turf layer to include different parameter values for pure air, as well as for turf, which is treated as a porous medium. The earlier porous medium model of Thompson and Daniels proposed to explain frost injury patterns is modified to give reasonable agreement with observed patterns.

  13. Ground level air convection produces frost damage patterns in turfgrass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerson, Bruce J.; Beier, Richard A.; Martin, Dennis L.

    2015-11-01

    Frost injury patterns are commonly observed on the warm-season turfgrass species bermudagrass ( Cynodon species Rich.), zoysiagrass ( Zoysia species Willd.), and buffalograss [ Bouteloua dactyloides (Nutt.) J.T. Columbus] in cool-temperate and subtropical zones. Qualitative observations of these injury patterns are presented and discussed. A model for the formation of such patterns based on thermal instability and convection of air is presented. The characteristic length scale of the observed frost pattern injury requires a temperature profile that decreases with height from the soil to the turfgrass canopy surface followed by an increase in temperature with height above the turfgrass canopy. This is justified by extending the earth temperature theory to include a turf layer with atmosphere above it. Then the theory for a thermally unstable layer beneath a stable region by Ogura and Kondo is adapted to a turf layer to include different parameter values for pure air, as well as for turf, which is treated as a porous medium. The earlier porous medium model of Thompson and Daniels proposed to explain frost injury patterns is modified to give reasonable agreement with observed patterns.

  14. Regimes of seasonal air-sea interaction and implications for performance of forced simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, School of Computational Sciences, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2007-09-15

    Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies can induce anomalous convection through surface evaporation and low-level moisture convergence. This SST forcing of the atmosphere is indicated in a positive local rainfall-SST correlation. Anomalous convection can feedback on SST through cloud-radiation and wind-evaporation effects and wind-induced oceanic mixing and upwelling. These atmospheric feedbacks are reflected in a negative local rainfall-SST tendency correlation. As such, the simultaneous rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlations can indicate the nature of local air-sea interactions. Based on the magnitude of simultaneous rainfall-SST and rainfall-SST tendency correlations, the present study identifies three distinct regimes of local air-sea interactions. The relative importance of SST forcing and atmospheric forcing differs in these regimes. In the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and, to a smaller degree, in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, SST forcing dominates throughout the year and the surface heat flux acts mainly as a damping term. In the tropical Indo-western Pacific Ocean regions, SST forcing and atmospheric forcing dominate alternatively in different seasons. Atmospheric forcing dominates in the local warm/rainy season. SST forcing dominates with a positive wind-evaporation feedback during the transition to the cold/dry season. SST forcing also dominates during the transition to the warm/rainy season but with a negative cloud-radiation feedback. The performance of atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed SST is closely linked to the regime of air-sea interaction. The forced simulations have good performance when SST forcing dominates. The performance is low or poor when atmospheric forcing dominates. (orig.)

  15. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  16. Geothermal Heating, Convective Flow and Ice Thickness on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, N. D.; Travis, B. J.; Cuzzi, J.

    2001-01-01

    Our 3D calculations suggest that hydrothermal circulation may occur in the martian regolith and may significantly thin the surface ice layer on Mars at some locations due to the upwelling of warm convecting fluids driven solely by background geothermal heating. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

  17. Seasonal Synchronization of a Simple Stochastic Dynamical Model Capturing El Niño Diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thual, S.; Majda, A.; Chen, N.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has significant impact on global climate and seasonal prediction. Recently, a simple ENSO model was developed that automatically captures the ENSO diversity and intermittency in nature, where state-dependent stochastic wind bursts and nonlinear advection of sea surface temperature (SST) are coupled to simple ocean-atmosphere processes that are otherwise deterministic, linear and stable. In the present article, it is further shown that the model can reproduce qualitatively the ENSO synchronization (or phase-locking) to the seasonal cycle in nature. This goal is achieved by incorporating a cloud radiative feedback that is derived naturally from the model's atmosphere dynamics with no ad-hoc assumptions and accounts in simple fashion for the marked seasonal variations of convective activity and cloud cover in the eastern Pacific. In particular, the weak convective response to SSTs in boreal fall favors the eastern Pacific warming that triggers El Niño events while the increased convective activity and cloud cover during the following spring contributes to the shutdown of those events by blocking incoming shortwave solar radiations. In addition to simulating the ENSO diversity with realistic non-Gaussian statistics in different Niño regions, both the eastern Pacific moderate and super El Niño, the central Pacific El Niño as well as La Niña show a realistic chronology with a tendency to peak in boreal winter as well as decreased predictability in spring consistent with the persistence barrier in nature. The incorporation of other possible seasonal feedbacks in the model is also documented for completeness.

  18. Moisture Vertical Structure, Deep Convective Organization, and Convective Transition in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiro, K. A.; Neelin, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Constraining precipitation processes in climate models with observations is crucial to accurately simulating current climate and reducing uncertainties in future projections. Results from the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign (2014-2015) provide evidence that deep convection is strongly controlled by the availability of moisture in the free troposphere over the Amazon, much like over tropical oceans. Entraining plume buoyancy calculations confirm that CWV is a good proxy for the conditional instability of the environment, yet differences in convective onset as a function of CWV exist over land and ocean, as well as seasonally and diurnally over land. This is largely due to variability in the contribution of lower tropospheric humidity to the total column moisture. Boundary layer moisture shows a strong relationship to the onset during the day, which largely disappears during nighttime. Using S-Band radar, these transition statistics are examined separately for unorganized and mesoscale-organized convection, which exhibit sharp increases in probability of occurrence with increasing moisture throughout the column, particularly in the lower free troposphere. Retrievals of vertical velocity from a radar wind profiler indicate updraft velocity and mass flux increasing with height through the lower troposphere. A deep-inflow mixing scheme motivated by this — corresponding to deep inflow of environmental air into a plume that grows with height — provides a weighting of boundary layer and free tropospheric air that yields buoyancies consistent with the observed onset of deep convection across seasons and times of day, across land and ocean sites, and for all convection types. This provides a substantial improvement relative to more traditional constant mixing assumptions, and a dramatic improvement relative to no mixing. Furthermore, it provides relationships that are as strong or stronger for mesoscale-organized convection as for unorganized convection.

  19. The effect of the United States Great Lakes on the maintenance of derecho-producing mesoscale convective systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, M.; Sparks, J.; Graham, R.

    2003-04-01

    The primary aim of this research is to investigate the influence of the United States Great Lakes on the intensity of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). One of the greatest nowcast challenges during the warm season is anticipating the impact of the Great Lakes on severe convection, particularly MCSs capable of producing damaging widespread windstorms known as derechos. Since a major derecho activity corridor lies over the Great Lakes region, it is important to understand the effects of the Lakes on the intensity and propagation of severe wind producing MCSs. Specific objectives of the research include: 1) The development of a short-term climatology of MCS events that have impacted the Great Lakes region over the past seven years; 2) An analysis of radar, satellite, surface (including buoy and lighthouse observations), and lake surface temperature data to determine the environmental conditions impacting the evolution of MCSs passing over a Great Lake; 3) An examination of MCS initiation times and seasonal frequencies of occurrence to delineate temporal consistencies in MCS evolution due to changing lake surface temperatures; and 4) The development of conceptual and forecast models to help anticipate MCS intensity and morphology as these systems interact with the Great Lakes environment.

  20. Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robichaud, A.; Ménard, R.

    2014-02-01

    Multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatiotemporal resolution for the warm season period (1 May to 31 October) for ground-level ozone and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5)) are presented. The OA used in this study combines model outputs from the Canadian air quality forecast suite with US and Canadian observations from various air quality surface monitoring networks. The analyses are based on an optimal interpolation (OI) with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (H-L) method. The error statistics are "tuned" using a χ2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a semi-empirical procedure that provides significantly better verification than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA setup using 90% of data observations to build the objective analyses and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM2.5 satellite surface-derived or ground-based measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 μg m-3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM2.5, respectively, and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 μg m-3 for PM2.5. This paper focuses on two applications: (1) presenting long-term averages of OA and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology; and (2) analyzing long-term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. The results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 were both following a general decreasing trend in North America, with the eastern

  1. Radiative-convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison A.; Reed, Kevin A.; Satoh, Masaki; Stevens, Bjorn; Bony, Sandrine; Ohno, Tomoki

    2018-03-01

    RCEMIP, an intercomparison of multiple types of models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), is proposed. RCE is an idealization of the climate system in which there is a balance between radiative cooling of the atmosphere and heating by convection. The scientific objectives of RCEMIP are three-fold. First, clouds and climate sensitivity will be investigated in the RCE setting. This includes determining how cloud fraction changes with warming and the role of self-aggregation of convection in climate sensitivity. Second, RCEMIP will quantify the dependence of the degree of convective aggregation and tropical circulation regimes on temperature. Finally, by providing a common baseline, RCEMIP will allow the robustness of the RCE state across the spectrum of models to be assessed, which is essential for interpreting the results found regarding clouds, climate sensitivity, and aggregation, and more generally, determining which features of tropical climate a RCE framework is useful for. A novel aspect and major advantage of RCEMIP is the accessibility of the RCE framework to a variety of models, including cloud-resolving models, general circulation models, global cloud-resolving models, single-column models, and large-eddy simulation models.

  2. A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, A.P.; Funk, Chris [University of California, Santa Barbara, Geography Department, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

    2011-12-15

    Observations and simulations link anthropogenic greenhouse and aerosol emissions with rapidly increasing Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Over the past 60 years, the Indian Ocean warmed two to three times faster than the central tropical Pacific, extending the tropical warm pool to the west by {proportional_to}40 longitude (>4,000 km). This propensity toward rapid warming in the Indian Ocean has been the dominant mode of interannual variability among SSTs throughout the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans (55 E-140 W) since at least 1948, explaining more variance than anomalies associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the atmosphere, the primary mode of variability has been a corresponding trend toward greatly increased convection and precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean. The temperature and rainfall increases in this region have produced a westward extension of the western, ascending branch of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Diabatic heating due to increased mid-tropospheric water vapor condensation elicits a westward atmospheric response that sends an easterly flow of dry air aloft toward eastern Africa. In recent decades (1980-2009), this response has suppressed convection over tropical eastern Africa, decreasing precipitation during the 'long-rains' season of March-June. This trend toward drought contrasts with projections of increased rainfall in eastern Africa and more 'El Nino-like' conditions globally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Increased Indian Ocean SSTs appear likely to continue to strongly modulate the Warm Pool circulation, reducing precipitation in eastern Africa, regardless of whether the projected trend in ENSO is realized. These results have important food security implications, informing agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resource planning. (orig.)

  3. Observing Convective Aggregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Christopher E.; Wing, Allison A.; Bony, Sandrine; Muller, Caroline; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.; Turner, David D.; Zuidema, Paquita

    2017-11-01

    Convective self-aggregation, the spontaneous organization of initially scattered convection into isolated convective clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing, was first recognized and studied in idealized numerical simulations. While there is a rich history of observational work on convective clustering and organization, there have been only a few studies that have analyzed observations to look specifically for processes related to self-aggregation in models. Here we review observational work in both of these categories and motivate the need for more of this work. We acknowledge that self-aggregation may appear to be far-removed from observed convective organization in terms of time scales, initial conditions, initiation processes, and mean state extremes, but we argue that these differences vary greatly across the diverse range of model simulations in the literature and that these comparisons are already offering important insights into real tropical phenomena. Some preliminary new findings are presented, including results showing that a self-aggregation simulation with square geometry has too broad distribution of humidity and is too dry in the driest regions when compared with radiosonde records from Nauru, while an elongated channel simulation has realistic representations of atmospheric humidity and its variability. We discuss recent work increasing our understanding of how organized convection and climate change may interact, and how model discrepancies related to this question are prompting interest in observational comparisons. We also propose possible future directions for observational work related to convective aggregation, including novel satellite approaches and a ground-based observational network.

  4. Convective heat transfer

    CERN Document Server

    Kakac, Sadik; Pramuanjaroenkij, Anchasa

    2014-01-01

    Intended for readers who have taken a basic heat transfer course and have a basic knowledge of thermodynamics, heat transfer, fluid mechanics, and differential equations, Convective Heat Transfer, Third Edition provides an overview of phenomenological convective heat transfer. This book combines applications of engineering with the basic concepts of convection. It offers a clear and balanced presentation of essential topics using both traditional and numerical methods. The text addresses emerging science and technology matters, and highlights biomedical applications and energy technologies. What’s New in the Third Edition: Includes updated chapters and two new chapters on heat transfer in microchannels and heat transfer with nanofluids Expands problem sets and introduces new correlations and solved examples Provides more coverage of numerical/computer methods The third edition details the new research areas of heat transfer in microchannels and the enhancement of convective heat transfer with nanofluids....

  5. Investigation of tropical diurnal convection biases in a climate model using TWP-ICE observations and convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Jackson, R. C.; Endo, S.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Collis, S. M.; Golaz, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models are known to have difficulty in simulating tropical diurnal convections that exhibit distinct characteristics over land and open ocean. While the causes are rooted in deficiencies in convective parameterization in general, lack of representations of mesoscale dynamics in terms of land-sea breeze, convective organization, and propagation of convection-induced gravity waves also play critical roles. In this study, the problem is investigated at the process-level with the U.S. Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model in short-term hindcast mode using the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) framework. Convective-scale radar retrievals and observation-driven convection-permitting simulations for the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) cases are used to guide the analysis of the underlying processes. The emphasis will be on linking deficiencies in representation of detailed process elements to the model biases in diurnal convective properties and their contrast among inland, coastal and open ocean conditions.

  6. Simulating deep convection with a shallow convection scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Hohenegger

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Convective processes profoundly affect the global water and energy balance of our planet but remain a challenge for global climate modeling. Here we develop and investigate the suitability of a unified convection scheme, capable of handling both shallow and deep convection, to simulate cases of tropical oceanic convection, mid-latitude continental convection, and maritime shallow convection. To that aim, we employ large-eddy simulations (LES as a benchmark to test and refine a unified convection scheme implemented in the Single-column Community Atmosphere Model (SCAM. Our approach is motivated by previous cloud-resolving modeling studies, which have documented the gradual transition between shallow and deep convection and its possible importance for the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle.

    Analysis of the LES reveals that differences between shallow and deep convection, regarding cloud-base properties as well as entrainment/detrainment rates, can be related to the evaporation of precipitation. Parameterizing such effects and accordingly modifying the University of Washington shallow convection scheme, it is found that the new unified scheme can represent both shallow and deep convection as well as tropical and mid-latitude continental convection. Compared to the default SCAM version, the new scheme especially improves relative humidity, cloud cover and mass flux profiles. The new unified scheme also removes the well-known too early onset and peak of convective precipitation over mid-latitude continental areas.

  7. Convection and stellar oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aarslev, Magnus Johan

    2017-01-01

    for asteroseismology, because of the challenges inherent in modelling turbulent convection in 1D stellar models. As a result of oversimplifying the physics near the surface, theoretical calculations systematically overestimate the oscillation frequencies. This has become known as the asteroseismic surface effect. Due...... to lacking better options, this frequency difference is typically corrected for with ad-hoc formulae. The topic of this thesis is the improvement of 1D stellar convection models and the effects this has on asteroseismic properties. The source of improvements is 3D simulations of radiation...... atmospheres to replace the outer layers of stellar models. The additional turbulent pressure and asymmetrical opacity effects in the atmosphere model, compared to convection in stellar evolution models, serve to expand the atmosphere. The enlarged acoustic cavity lowers the pulsation frequencies bringing them...

  8. Active control of convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bau, H.H. [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

    1995-12-31

    Using stability theory, numerical simulations, and in some instances experiments, it is demonstrated that the critical Rayleigh number for the bifurcation (1) from the no-motion (conduction) state to the motion state and (2) from time-independent convection to time-dependent, oscillatory convection in the thermal convection loop and Rayleigh-Benard problems can be significantly increased or decreased. This is accomplished through the use of a feedback controller effectuating small perturbations in the boundary data. The controller consists of sensors which detect deviations in the fluid`s temperature from the motionless, conductive values and then direct actuators to respond to these deviations in such a way as to suppress the naturally occurring flow instabilities. Actuators which modify the boundary`s temperature/heat flux are considered. The feedback controller can also be used to control flow patterns and generate complex dynamic behavior at relatively low Rayleigh numbers.

  9. Convective transport in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Ippolito, D.A.; Myra, J.R.; Russell, D.A.; Krasheninnikov, S.I.; Pigarov, A.Yu.; Yu, G.Q.; Xu, X.Q.; Nevins, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    Scrape-off-layer (SOL) convection in fusion experiments appears to be a universal phenomenon that can 'short-circuit' the divertor in some cases. The theory of 'blob' transport provides a simple and robust physical paradigm for studying convective transport. This paper summarizes recent advances in the theory of blob transport and its comparison with 2D and 3D computer simulations. We also discuss the common physical basis relating radial transport of blobs, pellets, and ELMs and a new blob regime that may lead to a connection between blob transport and the density limit. (author)

  10. Physics of Stellar Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnett, W. David

    2009-05-01

    We review recent progress using numerical simulations as a testbed for development of a theory of stellar convection, much as envisaged by John von Newmann. Necessary features of the theory, non-locality and fluctuations, are illustrated by computer movies. It is found that the common approximation of convection as a diffusive process presents the wrong physical picture, and improvements are suggested. New observational results discussed at the conference are gratifying in their validation of some of our theoretical ideas, especially the idea that SNIb and SNIc events are related to the explosion of massive star cores which have been stripped by mass loss and binary interactions [1

  11. Parameterizing convective organization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Earle Mapes

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Lateral mixing parameters in buoyancy-driven deep convection schemes are among the most sensitive and important unknowns in atmosphere models. Unfortunately, there is not a true optimum value for plume mixing rate, but rather a dilemma or tradeoff: Excessive dilution of updrafts leads to unstable stratification bias in the mean state, while inadequate dilution allows deep convection to occur too easily, causing poor space and time distributions and variability. In this too-small parameter space, compromises are made based on competing metrics of model performance. We attempt to escape this “entrainment dilemma” by making bulk plume parameters (chiefly entrainment rate depend on a new prognostic variable (“organization,” org meant to reflect the rectified effects of subgrid-scale structure in meteorological fields. We test an org scheme in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5 with a new unified shallow-deep convection scheme (UW-ens, a 2-plume version of the University of Washington scheme. Since buoyant ascent involves natural selection, subgrid structure makes convection systematically deeper and stronger than the pure unorganized case: plumes of average (or randomly sampled air rising in the average environment. To reflect this, org is nonnegative, but we leave it dimensionless. A time scale characterizes its behavior (here ∼3 h for a 2o model. Currently its source is rain evaporation, but other sources can be added easily. We also let org be horizontally transported by advection, as a mass-weighted mean over the convecting layer. Linear coefficients link org to a plume ensemble, which it assists via: 1 plume base warmth above the mean temperature 2 plume radius enhancement (reduced mixing, and 3 increased probability of overlap in a multi-plume scheme, where interactions benefit later generations (this part has only been implemented in an offline toy column model. Since rain evaporation is a source for org, it functions as a time

  12. Mathematical models of convection

    CERN Document Server

    Andreev, Victor K; Goncharova, Olga N; Pukhnachev, Vladislav V

    2012-01-01

    Phenomena of convection are abundant in nature as well as in industry. This volume addresses the subject of convection from the point of view of both, theory and application. While the first three chapters provide a refresher on fluid dynamics and heat transfer theory, the rest of the book describes the modern developments in theory. Thus it brings the reader to the ""front"" of the modern research. This monograph provides the theoretical foundation on a topic relevant to metallurgy, ecology, meteorology, geo-and astrophysics, aerospace industry, chemistry, crystal physics, and many other fiel

  13. Convective aggregation in realistic convective-scale simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Holloway, Christopher E.

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the real-world relevance of idealized-model convective self-aggregation, five 15-day cases of real organized convection in the tropics are simulated. These include multiple simulations of each case to test sensitivities of the convective organization and mean states to interactive radiation, interactive surface fluxes, and evaporation of rain. These simulations are compared to self-aggregation seen in the same model configured to run in idealized radiative-convective equilibriu...

  14. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  15. Seasonal hydroclimatic impacts of Sun Corridor expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, M; Mahalov, A; Moustaoui, M

    2012-01-01

    Conversion of natural to urban land forms imparts influence on local and regional hydroclimate via modification of the surface energy and water balance, and consideration of such effects due to rapidly expanding megapolitan areas is necessary in light of the growing global share of urban inhabitants. Based on a suite of ensemble-based, multi-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we quantify seasonally varying hydroclimatic impacts of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan area in the US: Arizona’s Sun Corridor, centered upon the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Using a scenario-based urban expansion approach that accounts for the full range of Sun Corridor growth uncertainty through 2050, we show that built environment induced warming for the maximum development scenario is greatest during the summer season (regionally averaged warming over AZ exceeds 1 °C). Warming remains significant during the spring and fall seasons (regionally averaged warming over AZ approaches 0.9 °C during both seasons), and is least during the winter season (regionally averaged warming over AZ of 0.5 °C). Impacts from a minimum expansion scenario are reduced, with regionally averaged warming ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 °C for all seasons except winter, when no warming impacts are diagnosed. Integration of highly reflective cool roofs within the built environment, increasingly recognized as a cost-effective option intended to offset the warming influence of urban complexes, reduces urban-induced warming considerably. However, impacts on the hydrologic cycle are aggravated via enhanced evapotranspiration reduction, leading to a 4% total accumulated precipitation decrease relative to the non-adaptive maximum expansion scenario. Our results highlight potentially unintended consequences of this adaptation approach within rapidly expanding megapolitan areas, and emphasize the need for undeniably sustainable development paths that account for

  16. Role of upper-level wind shear on the structure and maintenance of derecho-producing convective systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coniglio, Michael Charles

    Common large-scale environments associated with the development of derecho-producing convective systems from a large number of events are identified using statistical clustering of the 500-mb geopotential heights as guidance. The majority of the events (72%) fall into three main patterns that include a well-defined upstream trough (40%), a ridge (20%), and a zonal, low-amplitude flow (12%), which is defined as an additional warm-season pattern that is not identified in past studies of derecho environments. Through an analysis of proximity soundings, discrepancies are found in both low-level and deep-tropospheric shear parameters between observations and the shear profiles considered favorable for strong, long-lived convective systems in idealized simulations. To explore the role of upper-level shear in derecho environments, a set of two-dimensional simulations of density currents within a dry, neutrally stable environment are used to examine the ability of a cold pool to lift environmental air within a vertically sheared flow. The results confirm that the addition of upper-level shear to a wind profile with weak to moderate low-level shear increases the vertical displacement of low-level parcels despite a decrease in the vertical velocity along the cold pool interface, as suggested by previous studies. Parcels that are elevated above the surface (1-2 km) overturn and are responsible for the deep lifting in the deep-shear environments. This deep overturning caused by the upper-level shear helps to maintain the tilt of the convective systems in more complex two-dimensional and three dimensional simulations. The overturning also is shown to greatly increase the size of the convective systems in the three-dimensional simulations by facilitating the initiation and maintenance of convective cells along the cold pool. When combined with estimates of the cold pool motion and the storm-relative hodograph, these results may best be used for the prediction of the demise of

  17. Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

  18. Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreekanth, T. S.

    Large Micro-Physical characterisation of Convective & Stratiform Rainfall at Tropics begin{center} begin{center} Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) , and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar, Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT Micro-physical parameters of rainfall such as rain drop size & fall speed distribution, mass weighted mean diameter, Total no. of rain drops, Normalisation parameters for rain intensity, maximum & minimum drop diameter from different rain intensity ranges, from both stratiform and convective rain events were analysed. Convective -Stratiform classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill was also used. Events which cannot be included in both types are termed as 'mixed precipitation' and identified separately. For the three years 2011, 2012 & 2013, rain events from both convective & stratiform origin are identified from three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Micro-physical characterisation was done for each rain events and analysed. Ground based and radar observations were made and classification of stratiform and convective rainfall was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001). Radar bright band and non bright band analysis was done for confimation of stratifom and convective rain respectievely. Atmospheric electric field data from electric field mill is also used for confirmation of convection during convective events. Statistical analyses revealed that the standard deviation of rain drop size in higher rain rates are higher than in lower rain rates. Normalised drop size distribution is ploted for selected events from both forms. Inter relations between various precipitation parameters were analysed in three

  19. Global warming and climate change: control methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

  20. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  1. Convective overshooting in stars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Andrássy, R.

    2015-01-01

    Numerous observations provide evidence that the standard picture, in which convective mixing is limited to the unstable layers of a star, is incomplete. The mixing layers in real stars are significantly more extended than what the standard models predict. Some of the observations require changing

  2. Observations of vegetation induced breezes and their impact on convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Parker, Douglas J.; Taylor, Christopher M.; Reeves, Claire; Murphy, Jennifer

    2010-05-01

    Aircraft observations over Benin during the early afternoon of 17 August 2006 are used to look at the impact of heterogeneities in vegetation cover, primarily between crop and forest/shrub, on the thermodynamic and dynamical properties of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Isoprene, a biogenic organic compound emitted primarily by woody vegetation species, was measured and is used to link the vegetation patterns to the PBL properties. The aircraft observations show the presence of a persistent mesoscale organization of the winds persisting over two hours, controlling the pattern of cumulus congestus cloud in the area. The mesoscale flows are closely linked to temperature anomalies that mirror the vegetation patterns at the surface. These results are consistent with the presence of higher Bowen ratios over forested areas, associated with higher evapotranspiration and isoprene emissions, producing negative PBL temperature anomalies over the forested area compared to adjacent cropland. The temperature gradients that thus arise at vegetation boundaries are then sufficient to initiate vegetation breezes. The relationships between PBL temperatures and isoprene, linking the land-surface to the PBL, and PBL temperatures and winds are very significant for length-scales above 10 and 8km respectively. The convergence zones, and therefore clouds, associated with the land-induced mesoscale flows tend to occur on the southern edge of the warm temperature anomalies. This is attributed to the presence of a northerly synoptic flow, which strengthens the southerly parts of the mesoscale flow, as well as displacing the convergence zones southward. A visible satellite climatology for the whole season shows an enhancement of cloud over the cropland during the early afternoon, consistent with the presence of land-induced flows. These results suggest that the presence of these flows have a climatological impact on the initiation of convection in the region.

  3. The Effect of Seasonal Variability of Atlantic Water on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, V. V.; Repina, I. A.

    2018-01-01

    Under the influence of global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is expected to reduce with a transition toward a seasonal ice cover by the end of this century. A comparison of climate-model predictions with measurements shows that the actual rate of ice cover decay in the AO is higher than the predicted one. This paper argues that the rapid shrinking of the Arctic summer ice cover is due to its increased seasonality, while seasonal oscillations of the Atlantic origin water temperature create favorable conditions for the formation of negative anomalies in the ice-cover area in winter. The basis for this hypothesis is the fundamental possibility of the activation of positive feedback provided by a specific feature of the seasonal cycle of the inflowing Atlantic origin water and the peaking of temperature in the Nansen Basin in midwinter. The recently accelerated reduction in the summer ice cover in the AO leads to an increased accumulation of heat in the upper ocean layer during the summer season. The extra heat content of the upper ocean layer favors prerequisite conditions for winter thermohaline convection and the transfer of heat from the Atlantic water (AW) layer to the ice cover. This, in turn, contributes to further ice thinning and a decrease in ice concentration, accelerated melting in summer, and a greater accumulation of heat in the ocean by the end of the following summer. An important role is played by the seasonal variability of the temperature of AW, which forms on the border between the North European and Arctic basins. The phase of seasonal oscillation changes while the AW is moving through the Nansen Basin. As a result, the timing of temperature peak shifts from summer to winter, additionally contributing to enhanced ice melting in winter. The formulated theoretical concept is substantiated by a simplified mathematical model and comparison with observations.

  4. The Impacts of Bias in Cloud-Radiation-Dynamics Interactions on Central Pacific Seasonal and El Niño Simulations in Contemporary GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.-L. F.; Suhas, E.; Richardson, Mark; Lee, Wei-Liang; Wang, Yi-Hui; Yu, Jia-Yuh; Lee, Tong; Fetzer, Eric; Stephens, Graeme; Shen, Min-Hua

    2018-02-01

    Most of the global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 do not include precipitating ice (aka falling snow) in their radiation calculations. We examine the importance of the radiative effects of precipitating ice on simulated surface wind stress and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in terms of seasonal variation and in the evolution of central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño) events. Using controlled simulations with the CESM1 model, we show that the exclusion of precipitating ice radiative effects generates a persistent excessive upper-level radiative cooling and an increasingly unstable atmosphere over convective regions such as the western Pacific and tropical convergence zones. The invigorated convection leads to persistent anomalous low-level outflows which weaken the easterly trade winds, reducing upper-ocean mixing and leading to a positive SST bias in the model mean state. In CP-El Niño events, this means that outflow from the modeled convection in the central Pacific reduces winds to the east, allowing unrealistic eastward propagation of warm SST anomalies following the peak in CP-El Niño activity. Including the radiative effects of precipitating ice reduces these model biases and improves the simulated life cycle of the CP-El Niño. Improved simulations of present-day tropical seasonal variations and CP-El Niño events would increase the confidence in simulating their future behavior.

  5. Convective growth of broadband turbulence in the plasma sheet boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dusenbery, P.B.

    1987-01-01

    Convective growth of slow and fast beam acoustic waves in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) is investigated. It has been shown previously that a could ion population must be present in order to excite beam acoustic waves in the PSBL. However, growth rates are significantly enhanced when warm plasma sheet boundary layer ions are present. Net wave growth along a ray path is determined by convective growth. This quantity is calculated for particle distribution models consistent with the PSBL where the intensity of broadband turbulence is observed to peak. Total number density dependence on beam acoustic convective growth is evaluated, and it is found that even for low density conditions of ∼0.01 cm -3 , a measurable level of broadband turbulence is expected. Relative drift effects between cold and warm ion populations are also considered. In particular, it is found that slow mode convective growth can be enhanced when slowly streaming cold ions are present, compared to fast ion streams

  6. Convective Propagation Characteristics Using a Simple Representation of Convective Organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neale, R. B.; Mapes, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    Observed equatorial wave propagation is intimately linked to convective organization and it's coupling to features of the larger-scale flow. In this talk we a use simple 4 level model to accommodate vertical modes of a mass flux convection scheme (shallow, mid-level and deep). Two paradigms of convection are used to represent convective processes. One that has only both random (unorganized) diagnosed fluctuations of convective properties and one with organized fluctuations of convective properties that are amplified by previously existing convection and has an explicit moistening impact on the local convecting environment We show a series of model simulations in single-column, 2D and 3D configurations, where the role of convective organization in wave propagation is shown to be fundamental. For the optimal choice of parameters linking organization to local atmospheric state, a broad array of convective wave propagation emerges. Interestingly the key characteristics of propagating modes are the low-level moistening followed by deep convection followed by mature 'large-scale' heating. This organization structure appears to hold firm across timescales from 5-day wave disturbances to MJO-like wave propagation.

  7. Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

    2018-03-01

    As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

  8. Dynamic response of wind turbine towers in warm permafrost

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Benjamin Still; ZhaoHui Joey Yang; Simon Evans; FuJun Niu

    2014-01-01

    Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska. Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season, when the energy demand is the highest. Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development. Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design, construction, and operation of wind turbines. This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska. It presents a sys-tem for response monitoring and load assessment, and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014. The dynamic proper-ties are assessed based on the monitoring data, and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed. These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.

  9. Seasonality in ocean microbial communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannoni, Stephen J; Vergin, Kevin L

    2012-02-10

    Ocean warming occurs every year in seasonal cycles that can help us to understand long-term responses of plankton to climate change. Rhythmic seasonal patterns of microbial community turnover are revealed when high-resolution measurements of microbial plankton diversity are applied to samples collected in lengthy time series. Seasonal cycles in microbial plankton are complex, but the expansion of fixed ocean stations monitoring long-term change and the development of automated instrumentation are providing the time-series data needed to understand how these cycles vary across broad geographical scales. By accumulating data and using predictive modeling, we gain insights into changes that will occur as the ocean surface continues to warm and as the extent and duration of ocean stratification increase. These developments will enable marine scientists to predict changes in geochemical cycles mediated by microbial communities and to gauge their broader impacts.

  10. Simulating the convective precipitation diurnal cycle in a North American scale convection-permitting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaff, L.; Li, Y.; Prein, A. F.; Liu, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.

    2017-12-01

    A better representation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation is essential for the analysis of the energy balance and the water budget components such as runoff, evaporation and infiltration. Convection-permitting regional climate modeling (CPM) has been shown to improve the models' performance of summer precipitation, allowing to: (1) simulate the mesoscale processes in more detail and (2) to provide more insights in future changes in convective precipitation under climate change. In this work we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) in simulating the summer precipitation diurnal cycle over most of North America. We use 4 km horizontal grid spacing in a 13-years long current and future period. The future scenario is assuming no significant changes in large-scale weather patterns and aims to answer how the weather of the current climate would change if it would reoccur at the end of the century under a high-end emission scenario (Pseudo Global Warming). We emphasize on a region centered on the lee side of the Canadian Rocky Mountains, where the summer precipitation amount shows a regional maximum. The historical simulations are capable to correctly represent the diurnal cycle. At the lee-side of the Canadian Rockies the increase in the convective available potential energy as well as pronounced low-level moisture flux from the southeast Prairies explains the local maximum in summer precipitation. The PGW scenario shows an increase in summer precipitation amount and intensity in this region, consistently with a stronger source of moisture and convective energy.

  11. Convection heat transfer

    CERN Document Server

    Bejan, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    Written by an internationally recognized authority on heat transfer and thermodynamics, this second edition of Convection Heat Transfer contains new and updated problems and examples reflecting real-world research and applications, including heat exchanger design. Teaching not only structure but also technique, the book begins with the simplest problem solving method (scale analysis), and moves on to progressively more advanced and exact methods (integral method, self similarity, asymptotic behavior). A solutions manual is available for all problems and exercises.

  12. Concepts of magnetospheric convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasyliunas, V.M.

    1975-01-01

    Magnetospheric physics, which grew out of attempts to understand the space environment of the Earth, is becoming increasingly applicable to other systems in the Universe. Among the planets, in addition to the Earth, Jupiter, Mercury, Mars and (in a somewhat different way) Venus are now known to have magnetospheres. The magnetospheres of pulsars have been regarded as an essential part of the pulsar phenomenon. Other astrophysical systems, such as supernova remnant shells or magnetic stars and binary star systems, may be describable as magnetospheres. The major concepts of magnetospheric physics thus need to be formulated in a general way not restricted to the geophysical context in which they may have originated. Magnetospheric convection has been one of the most important and fruitful concepts in the study of the Earth's magnetosphere. This paper describes the basic theoretical notions of convection in a manner applicable to magnetospheres generally and discusses the relative importance of convective corotational motions, with particular reference to the comparison of the Earth and Jupiter. (Auth.)

  13. The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities.

  14. Experimental winter warming modifies thermal performance and primes acorn ants for warm weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacLean, Heidi J.; Penick, Clint A.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2017-01-01

    The frequency of warm winter days is increasing under global climate change, but how organisms respond to warmer winters is not well understood. Most studies focus on growing season responses to warming. Locomotor performance is often highly sensitive to temperature, and can determine fitness...... outcomes through a variety of mechanisms including resource acquisition and predator escape. As a consequence, locomotor performance, and its impacts on fitness, may be strongly affected by winter warming in winter-active species. Here we use the acorn ant, Temnothorax curvispinosus, to explore how thermal...... performance (temperature-driven plasticity) in running speed is influenced by experimental winter warming of 3–5 °C above ambient in a field setting. We used running speed as a measure of performance as it is a common locomotor trait that influences acquisition of nest sites and food in acorn ants...

  15. Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijens, Louise; Emanuel, Kerry; Masunaga, Hirohiko; L'Ecuyer, Tristan

    2017-11-01

    Space-borne observations reveal that 20-40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative-convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of

  16. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  17. Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

  18. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  19. Seasonal and cryopreservation impacts on semen quality in boars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal boar infertility occurs worldwide and contributes to economic loss to the pork industry. The current study evaluated cooled vs cryopreserved semen quality of 11 Duroc boars collected in June (cool season) and August 2014 (warm season). Semen was cooled to 16°C (cooled) or frozen over liquid...

  20. Environmental Characteristics of Convective Systems During TRMM-LBA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halverson, Jeffrey B.; Rickenbach, Thomas; Roy, Biswadev; Pierce, Harold; Williams, Earle; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, data collected from 51 days of continual upper atmospheric soundings and TOGA radar at ABRACOS Hill during the TRMM-LBA experiment are used to describe the mean thermodynamic and kinematic airmass properties of wet season convection over Rondonia, Brazil. Distinct multi-day easterly and westerly lower tropospheric wind regimes occurred during the campaign with contrasting airmass characteristics. Westerly wind periods featured modest CAPE (1000 J/kg), moist conditions (>90% RH) extending through 700 mb and shallow (900 mb) speed shear on the order of 10(exp -4)/s. This combination of characteristics promoted convective systems that featured a relatively large fraction of stratiform rainfall and weak convection nearly devoid of lightning. The environment is very similar to the general airmass conditions experienced during the Darwin, Australia monsoon convective regime. In contrast, easterly regime convective systems were more strongly electrified and featured larger convective rain rates and reduced stratiform rainfall fraction. These systems formed in an environment with significantly larger CAPE (1500 J/kg), drier lower and middle level humidities (in the lowest 1-2 km, thus contributing to a more explosive growth of convection. The time series of low- and mid-level averaged humidity exhibited marked variability between westerly and easterly regimes and was characterized by low frequency (i.e., multi-day to weekly) oscillations. The synoptic scale origins of these moisture fluctuations are examined, which include the effects of variable low-level airmass trajectories and upper-level, westward migrating cyclonic vortices. The results reported herein provide an environmental context for ongoing dual Doppler analyses and numerical modeling case studies of individual TRMM-LBA convective systems.

  1. Warm Mix Asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-17

    State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

  2. Statistics of Deep Convection in the Congo Basin Derived From High-Resolution Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, B.; Stier, P.; Kipling, Z.; Gryspeerdt, E.; Taylor, S.

    2016-12-01

    Convection transports moisture, momentum, heat and aerosols through the troposphere, and so the temporal variability of convection is a major driver of global weather and climate. The Congo basin is home to some of the most intense convective activity on the planet and is under strong seasonal influence of biomass burning aerosol. However, deep convection in the Congo basin remains under studied compared to other regions of tropical storm systems, especially when compared to the neighbouring, relatively well-understood West African climate system. We use the WRF model to perform a high-resolution, cloud-system resolving simulation to investigate convective storm systems in the Congo. Our setup pushes the boundaries of current computational resources, using a 1 km grid length over a domain covering millions of square kilometres and for a time period of one month. This allows us to draw statistical conclusions on the nature of the simulated storm systems. Comparing data from satellite observations and the model enables us to quantify the diurnal variability of deep convection in the Congo basin. This approach allows us to evaluate our simulations despite the lack of in-situ observational data. This provides a more comprehensive analysis of the diurnal cycle than has previously been shown. Further, we show that high-resolution convection-permitting simulations performed over near-seasonal timescales can be used in conjunction with satellite observations as an effective tool to evaluate new convection parameterisations.

  3. Bidispersive-inclined convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulone, Giuseppe; Straughan, Brian

    2016-01-01

    A model is presented for thermal convection in an inclined layer of porous material when the medium has a bidispersive structure. Thus, there are the usual macropores which are full of a fluid, but there are also a system of micropores full of the same fluid. The model we employ is a modification of the one proposed by Nield & Kuznetsov (2006 Int. J. Heat Mass Transf. 49, 3068–3074. (doi:10.1016/j.ijheatmasstransfer.2006.02.008)), although we consider a single temperature field only. PMID:27616934

  4. A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Sui, C. H.; Tao, W. K.

    1993-01-01

    The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

  5. Seasonal and ENSO Influences on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Galápagos Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, N. J.; Conroy, J. L.; Noone, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Rea, S.

    2018-01-01

    The origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotope-based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) are sparse and largely unevaluated in the literature, although insights from such analyses would benefit the interpretations of several regional isotope-based paleoclimate records. Here we present a new 3.5 year record of daily-resolved δ18Op and δDp from Santa Cruz, Galápagos. With a prior 13 year record of monthly δ18Op and δDp from the island, these new data reveal controls on the stable isotopic composition of regional precipitation on event to interannual time scales. Overall, we find Galápagos δ18Op is significantly correlated with precipitation amount on daily and monthly time scales. The majority of Galápagos rain events are drizzle, or garúa, derived from local marine boundary layer vapor, with corresponding high δ18Op values due to the local source and increased evaporation and equilibration of smaller drops with boundary layer vapor. On monthly time scales, only precipitation in very strong, warm season El Niño months has substantially lower δ18Op values, as the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection (28°C) is only surpassed at these times. The 2015/2016 El Niño event did not produce strong precipitation or δ18Op anomalies due to the short period of warm SST anomalies, which did not extend into the peak of the warm season. Eastern Pacific proxy isotope records may be biased toward periods of high rainfall during strong to very strong El Niño events.

  6. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  7. Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

  8. Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

    The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...

  9. Global anthropogenic aerosol effects on convective clouds in ECHAM5-HAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Lohmann

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics in many ways. They act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei and may have an influence on the hydrological cycle. Here we investigate aerosol effects on convective clouds by extending the double-moment cloud microphysics scheme developed for stratiform clouds, which is coupled to the HAM double-moment aerosol scheme, to convective clouds in the ECHAM5 general circulation model. This enables us to investigate whether more, and smaller cloud droplets suppress the warm rain formation in the lower parts of convective clouds and thus release more latent heat upon freezing, which would then result in more vigorous convection and more precipitation. In ECHAM5, including aerosol effects in large-scale and convective clouds (simulation ECHAM5-conv reduces the sensitivity of the liquid water path increase with increasing aerosol optical depth in better agreement with observations and large-eddy simulation studies. In simulation ECHAM5-conv with increases in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions since pre-industrial times, the geographical distribution of the changes in precipitation better matches the observed increase in precipitation than neglecting microphysics in convective clouds. In this simulation the convective precipitation increases the most suggesting that the convection has indeed become more vigorous.

  10. Coupled interactions of organized deep convection over the tropical western pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, X.; Raman, S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

    1996-04-01

    The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and deep convection is complex. In general, deep convection occurs more frequently and with more intensity as SSTs become higher. This theory assumes that the atmospheric stability is sufficiently reduced to allow the onset of moist convection. However, the amount and intensity of convection observed tends to decrease with increasing SST because very warm SSTs. A reason for such decrease is the enhancements to surface fluxes of heat and moisture out of the ocean surface because of the vertical overturning associated with deep convection. Early studies used the radiative-convective models of the atmosphere to examine the role of the convective exchange of heat and moisture in maintaining the vertical temperature profile. In this paper we use a Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to simulate a squall line over a tropical ocean global atmosphere/coupled ocean atmosphere response experiment (TOGA/COARE) area and to investigate how the ocean cooling mechanisms associated with organized deep convection act to limit tropical SSTs.

  11. A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannini, A; Salack, S; Gaye, A T; Lodoun, T; Ali, A; Ndiaye, O

    2013-01-01

    We propose a re-interpretation of the oceanic influence on the climate of the African Sahel that is consistent across observations, 20th century simulations and 21st century projections, and that resolves the uncertainty in projections of precipitation change in this region: continued warming of the global tropical oceans increases the threshold for convection, potentially drying tropical land, but this ‘upped ante’ can be met if sufficient moisture is supplied in monsoon flow. In this framework, the reversal to warming of the subtropical North Atlantic, which is now out-pacing warming of the global tropical oceans, provides that moisture, and explains the partial recovery in precipitation since persistent drought in the 1970s and 1980s. We find this recovery to result from increases in daily rainfall intensity, rather than in frequency, most evidently so in Senegal, the westernmost among the three Sahelian countries analyzed. Continuation of these observed trends is consistent with projections for an overall wetter Sahel, but more variable precipitation on all time scales, from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal. (letter)

  12. Synthetic schlieren—application to the visualization and characterization of air convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taberlet, Nicolas; Plihon, Nicolas; Auzémery, Lucile; Sautel, Jérémy; Panel, Grégoire; Gibaud, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Synthetic schlieren is a digital image processing optical method relying on the variation of optical index to visualize the flow of a transparent fluid. In this article, we present a step-by-step, easy-to-implement and affordable experimental realization of this technique. The method is applied to air convection caused by a warm surface. We show that the velocity of rising convection plumes can be linked to the temperature of the warm surface and propose a simple physical argument to explain this dependence. Moreover, using this method, one can reveal the tenuous convection plumes rising from one’s hand, a phenomenon invisible to the naked eye. This spectacular result may help students to realize the power of careful data acquisition combined with astute image processing techniques. This spectacular result may help students to realize the power of careful data acquisition combined with astute image processing techniques (refer to the video abstract).

  13. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  14. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  15. Intensified Arctic warming under greenhouse warming by vegetation–atmosphere–sea ice interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Linderholm, Hans W; Chen, Deliang; Kim, Baek-Min; Jun, Sang-Yoon

    2014-01-01

    Observations and modeling studies indicate that enhanced vegetation activities over high latitudes under an elevated CO 2 concentration accelerate surface warming by reducing the surface albedo. In this study, we suggest that vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interactions over high latitudes can induce an additional amplification of Arctic warming. Our hypothesis is tested by a series of coupled vegetation-climate model simulations under 2xCO 2 environments. The increased vegetation activities over high latitudes under a 2xCO 2 condition induce additional surface warming and turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere, which are transported to the Arctic through the atmosphere. This causes additional sea-ice melting and upper-ocean warming during the warm season. As a consequence, the Arctic and high-latitude warming is greatly amplified in the following winter and spring, which further promotes vegetation activities the following year. We conclude that the vegetation-atmosphere-sea ice interaction gives rise to additional positive feedback of the Arctic amplification. (letter)

  16. Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

    2018-02-01

    To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

  17. Convection in Porous Media

    CERN Document Server

    Nield, Donald A

    2013-01-01

    Convection in Porous Media, 4th Edition, provides a user-friendly introduction to the subject, covering a wide range of topics, such as fibrous insulation, geological strata, and catalytic reactors. The presentation is self-contained, requiring only routine mathematics and the basic elements of fluid mechanics and heat transfer. The book will be of use not only to researchers and practicing engineers as a review and reference, but also to graduate students and others entering the field. The new edition features approximately 1,750 new references and covers current research in nanofluids, cellular porous materials, strong heterogeneity, pulsating flow, and more. Recognized as the standard reference in the field Includes a comprehensive, 250-page reference list Cited over 2300 times to date in its various editions Serves as an introduction for those entering the field and as a comprehensive reference for experienced researchers Features new sections on nanofluids, carbon dioxide sequestration, and applications...

  18. Convection in porous media

    CERN Document Server

    Nield, Donald A

    1992-01-01

    This book provides a user-friendly introduction to the topic of convection in porous media The authors as- sume that the reader is familiar with the basic elements of fluid mechanics and heat transfer, but otherwise the book is self-contained The book will be useful both as a review (for reference) and as a tutorial work, suitable as a textbook in a graduate course or seminar The book brings into perspective the voluminous research that has been performed during the last two decades The field has recently exploded because of worldwide concern with issues such as energy self-sufficiency and pollution of the environment Areas of application include the insulation of buildings and equipment, energy storage and recovery, geothermal reservoirs, nuclear waste disposal, chemical reactor engineering, and the storage of heat-generating materials such as grain and coal Geophysical applications range from the flow of groundwater around hot intrusions to the stability of snow against avalanches

  19. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  20. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  1. Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

    2017-08-01

    We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  2. Evaluation of the sensitivity of the Amazonian diurnal cycle to convective intensity in reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itterly, Kyle F.; Taylor, Patrick C.

    2017-02-01

    Model parameterizations of tropical deep convection are unable to reproduce the observed diurnal and spatial variability of convection in the Amazon, which contributes to climatological biases in the water cycle and energy budget. Convective intensity regimes are defined using percentiles of daily minimum 3-hourly averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). This study compares the observed spatial variability of convective diurnal cycle statistics for each regime to MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim (ERA) reanalysis data sets. Composite diurnal cycle statistics are computed for daytime hours (06:00-21:00 local time) in the wet season (December-January-February). MERRA-2 matches observations more closely than ERA for domain averaged composite diurnal statistics—specifically precipitation. However, ERA reproduces mesoscale features of OLR and precipitation phase associated with topography and the propagation of the coastal squall line. Both reanalysis models are shown to underestimate extreme convection.

  3. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  4. Submesoscale processes promote seasonal restratification in the Subantarctic Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du Plessis, M

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, the mechanism driving the seasonal restratification of the Southern Ocean mixed layer (ML) is thought to be the onset of springtime warming. Recent developments in numerical modeling and North Atlantic observations have shown...

  5. Stellar convection and dynamo theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jennings, R L

    1989-10-01

    In considering the large scale stellar convection problem the outer layers of a star are modelled as two co-rotating plane layers coupled at a fluid/fluid interface. Heating from below causes only the upper fluid to convect, although this convection can penetrate into the lower fluid. Stability analysis is then used to find the most unstable mode of convection. With parameters appropriate to the Sun the most unstable mode is steady convection in thin cells (aspect ratio {approx equal} 0.2) filling the convection zone. There is negligible vertical motion in the lower fluid, but considerable thermal penetration, and a large jump in helicity at the interface, which has implications for dynamo theory. An {alpha}{omega} dynamo is investigated in isolation from the convection problem. Complexity is included by allowing both latitudinal and time dependence in the magnetic fields. The nonlinear dynamics of the resulting partial differential equations are analysed in considerable detail. On varying the main control parameter D (the dynamo number), many transitions of behaviour are found involving many forms of time dependence, but not chaos. Further, solutions which break equatorial symmetry are common and provide a theoretical explanation of solar observations which have this symmetry. Overall the behaviour was more complicated than expected. In particular, there were multiple stable solutions at fixed D, meaning that similar stars can have very different magnetic patterns, depending upon their history. (author).

  6. The Roles of Convection Parameterization in the Formation of Double ITCZ Syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xiaoliang; Zhang, Guang J.

    2018-03-01

    Several improvements are implemented in the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme to investigate the roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the NCAR CESM1.2.1. It is shown that the prominent double ITCZ biases of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress in the standard CESM1.2.1 are largely eliminated in all seasons with the use of these improvements in convection scheme. This study for the first time demonstrates that the modifications of convection scheme can eliminate the double ITCZ biases in all seasons, including boreal winter and spring. Further analysis shows that the elimination of the double ITCZ bias is achieved not by improving other possible contributors, such as stratus cloud bias off the west coast of South America and cloud/radiation biases over the Southern Ocean, but by modifying the convection scheme itself. This study demonstrates that convection scheme is the primary contributor to the double ITCZ bias in the CESM1.2.1, and provides a possible solution to the long-standing double ITCZ problem. The atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SST show that the original ZM convection scheme tends to produce double ITCZ bias in high SST scenario, while the modified convection scheme does not. The impact of changes in each core component of convection scheme on the double ITCZ bias in atmospheric model is identified and further investigated.

  7. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  8. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  9. The convection patterns in microemulsions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korneta, W.; Lopez Quintela, M.A.; Fernandez Novoa, A.

    1991-07-01

    The Rayleigh-Benard convection in the microemulsion consisting of water (7.5%), cyclohexan (oil-61.7%) and diethylenglycolmonobutylether (surfactant-30.8%) is studied from the onset of convection to the phase separation. The five classes of convection patterns are observed and recorded on the video: localized travelling waves, travelling waves, travelling waves and localized steady rolls, steady rolls and steady polygons. The Fourier transforms and histograms of these patterns are presented. The origin of any pattern is discussed. The intermittent behaviour close to the phase separation was observed. Possible applications of the obtained results are suggested. (author). 6 refs, 4 figs

  10. Forced-air warming discontinued: periprosthetic joint infection rates drop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott D. Augustine

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have shown that the waste heat from forced-air warming (FAW escapes near the floor and warms the contaminated air resident near the floor. The waste heat then forms into convection currents that rise up and contaminate the sterile field above the surgical table. It has been shown that a single airborne bacterium can cause a periprosthetic joint infection (PJI following joint replacement surgery. We retrospectively compared PJI rates during a period of FAW to a period of air-free conductive fabric electric warming (CFW at three hospitals. Surgical and antibiotic protocols were held constant. The pooled multicenter data showed a decreased PJI rate of 78% following the discontinuation of FAW and a switch to air-free CFW (n=2034; P=0.002. The 78% reduction in joint implant infections observed when FAW was discontinued suggests that there is a link between the waste FAW heat and PJIs.

  11. The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Moeller, Lauren; Stefanova, Lydia; Chan, Steven; O'Brien, James J.; Smith, Thomas J.; Plant, Nathaniel

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low-level northerly flow and large-scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low-frequency variations of the sea breeze.

  12. Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jonathon S; Fu, Rong; Worden, John R; Chakraborty, Sudip; Clinton, Nicholas E; Risi, Camille; Sun, Ying; Yin, Lei

    2017-08-08

    Although it is well established that transpiration contributes much of the water for rainfall over Amazonia, it remains unclear whether transpiration helps to drive or merely responds to the seasonal cycle of rainfall. Here, we use multiple independent satellite datasets to show that rainforest transpiration enables an increase of shallow convection that moistens and destabilizes the atmosphere during the initial stages of the dry-to-wet season transition. This shallow convection moisture pump (SCMP) preconditions the atmosphere at the regional scale for a rapid increase in rain-bearing deep convection, which in turn drives moisture convergence and wet season onset 2-3 mo before the arrival of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Aerosols produced by late dry season biomass burning may alter the efficiency of the SCMP. Our results highlight the mechanisms by which interactions among land surface processes, atmospheric convection, and biomass burning may alter the timing of wet season onset and provide a mechanistic framework for understanding how deforestation extends the dry season and enhances regional vulnerability to drought.

  13. Convection in the Labrador Sea

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Davis, R

    1997-01-01

    The long-term goal of this grant was to describe the process of deep oceanic convection well enough to provide critical tests of, and guidance to, models used to predict subsurface ocean conditions...

  14. Convective heat flow probe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, James C.; Hardee, Harry C.; Striker, Richard P.

    1985-01-01

    A convective heat flow probe device is provided which measures heat flow and fluid flow magnitude in the formation surrounding a borehole. The probe comprises an elongate housing adapted to be lowered down into the borehole; a plurality of heaters extending along the probe for heating the formation surrounding the borehole; a plurality of temperature sensors arranged around the periphery of the probe for measuring the temperature of the surrounding formation after heating thereof by the heater elements. The temperature sensors and heater elements are mounted in a plurality of separate heater pads which are supported by the housing and which are adapted to be radially expanded into firm engagement with the walls of the borehole. The heat supplied by the heater elements and the temperatures measured by the temperature sensors are monitored and used in providing the desired measurements. The outer peripheral surfaces of the heater pads are configured as segments of a cylinder and form a full cylinder when taken together. A plurality of temperature sensors are located on each pad so as to extend along the length and across the width thereof, with a heating element being located in each pad beneath the temperature sensors. An expansion mechanism driven by a clamping motor provides expansion and retraction of the heater pads and expandable packer-type seals are provided along the probe above and below the heater pads.

  15. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  16. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  17. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  18. Convection-enhanced water evaporation

    OpenAIRE

    B. M. Weon; J. H. Je; C. Poulard

    2011-01-01

    Water vapor is lighter than air; this can enhance water evaporation by triggering vapor convection but there is little evidence. We directly visualize evaporation of nanoliter (2 to 700 nL) water droplets resting on silicon wafer in calm air using a high-resolution dual X-ray imaging method. Temporal evolutions of contact radius and contact angle reveal that evaporation rate linearly changes with surface area, indicating convective (instead of diffusive) evaporation in nanoliter water droplet...

  19. Wavelet Scale Analysis of Mesoscale Convective Systems for Detecting Deep Convection From Infrared Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Cornelia; Belušić, Danijel; Taylor, Christopher M.

    2018-03-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are frequently associated with rainfall extremes and are expected to further intensify under global warming. However, despite the significant impact of such extreme events, the dominant processes favoring their occurrence are still under debate. Meteosat geostationary satellites provide unique long-term subhourly records of cloud top temperatures, allowing to track changes in MCS structures that could be linked to rainfall intensification. Focusing on West Africa, we show that Meteosat cloud top temperatures are a useful proxy for rainfall intensities, as derived from snapshots from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 2A25 product: MCSs larger than 15,000 km2 at a temperature threshold of -40°C are found to produce 91% of all extreme rainfall occurrences in the study region, with 80% of the storms producing extreme rain when their minimum temperature drops below -80°C. Furthermore, we present a new method based on 2-D continuous wavelet transform to explore the relationship between cloud top temperature and rainfall intensity for subcloud features at different length scales. The method shows great potential for separating convective and stratiform cloud parts when combining information on temperature and scale, improving the common approach of using a temperature threshold only. We find that below -80°C, every fifth pixel is associated with deep convection. This frequency is doubled when looking at subcloud features smaller than 35 km. Scale analysis of subcloud features can thus help to better exploit cloud top temperature data sets, which provide much more spatiotemporal detail of MCS characteristics than available rainfall data sets alone.

  20. Seasonal Changes in Titan's Meteorology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turtle, E. P.; DelGenio, A. D.; Barbara, J. M.; Perry, J. E.; Schaller, E. L.; McEwen, A. S.; West, R. A.; Ray, T. L.

    2011-01-01

    The Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem has observed Titan for 1/4 Titan year, and we report here the first evidence of seasonal shifts in preferred locations of tropospheric methane clouds. South \\polar convective cloud activity, common in late southern summer, has become rare. North \\polar and northern mid \\latitude clouds appeared during the approach to the northern spring equinox in August 2009. Recent observations have shown extensive cloud systems at low latitudes. In contrast, southern mid \\latitude and subtropical clouds have appeared sporadically throughout the mission, exhibiting little seasonality to date. These differences in behavior suggest that Titan s clouds, and thus its general circulation, are influenced by both the rapid temperature response of a low \\thermal \\inertia surface and the much longer radiative timescale of Titan s cold thick troposphere. North \\polar clouds are often seen near lakes and seas, suggesting that local increases in methane concentration and/or lifting generated by surface roughness gradients may promote cloud formation. Citation

  1. The Double ITCZ Syndrome in GCMs: A Coupled Problem among Convection, Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

    2017-12-01

    The double ITCZ bias has been a long-standing problem in coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A previous study indicates that uncertainty in the projection of global warming due to doubling of CO2 is closely related to the double ITCZ biases in global climate models. Thus, reducing the double ITCZ biases is not only important to getting the current climate features right, but also important to narrowing the uncertainty in future climate projection. In this work, we will first review the possible factors contributing to the ITCZ problem. Then, we will focus on atmospheric convection, presenting recent progress in alleviating the double ITCZ problem and its sensitivity to details of convective parameterization, including trigger conditions for convection onset, convective memory, entrainment rate, updraft model and closure in the NCAR CESM1. These changes together can result in dramatic improvements in the simulation of ITCZ. Results based on both atmospheric only and coupled simulations with incremental changes of convection scheme will be shown to demonstrate the roles of convection parameterization and coupled interaction between convection, atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation in the simulation of ITCZ.

  2. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

    2011-01-01

    The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

  3. 0-6613 : evaluate binder and mixture aging for warm mix asphalt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Warm mix asphalt (WMA) technologies employ reduced : mixing and placement temperatures, thereby allowing : reduced fuel consumption, enhanced compaction, : increased haul distances, and an extended paving : season. However, there have been issues of ...

  4. Performance Measures of Warm Asphalt Mixtures for Safe and Reliable Freight Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is an emerging technology that can allow asphalt to flow at a lower temperature for mixing, placing and compaction. The advantages of WMA include reduced fuel consumption, less carbon dioxide emission, longer paving season, lon...

  5. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  6. Thermocline Regulated Seasonal Evolution of Surface Chlorophyll in the Gulf of Aden

    KAUST Repository

    Hoteit, Ibrahim; Yao, Fengchao

    2015-01-01

    The Gulf of Aden, although subject to seasonally reversing monsoonal winds, has been previously reported as an oligotrophic basin during summer, with elevated chlorophyll concentrations only occurring during winter due to convective mixing. However

  7. Fire Safety During the Holiday Season | Poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter is here, and that means holiday decorations, a warm hearth, and (hopefully) plenty of homecooked meals. Unfortunately, winter also brings numerous fire hazards both at work and around the house. This year, as you shop, decorate, and celebrate, keep these safety tips in mind to ensure a safe and enjoyable holiday season.

  8. Mie lidar and radiosonde observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridharan, S.; Raghunath, K.; Sathishkumar, S.; Nath, D.

    2011-03-01

    During a major sudden stratospheric warming event (21-27 January 2009), Mie-lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show persistent occurrence of cirrus clouds. Outgoing long-wave radiation averaged for 70°E-90°E, decreases to a low value (170 W/m2) on 27 January 2009 over equator indicating deep convection. The zonal mean ERA-Interim data reveal large northward and upward circulation over equatorial upper troposphere. The latitude-longitude map of ERA-Interim zonal mean potential vorticity (PV) indicates two tongues of high PV emanating from polar latitudes and extending further down to equator. Radiosonde observations at Gadanki show the presence of ∼40% relative humidity at 11-13 km and lower tropopause temperature. It is inferred that the tropical circulation change due to PV intrusion leads to deep convection, which along with high humidity and low tropopause temperature leading to the formation of persistent cirrus clouds, the occurrence frequency of which is normally less during winter season over Gadanki.

  9. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Steiner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO, which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  10. Non-Boussinesq Dissolution-Driven Convection in Porous Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amooie, M. A.; Soltanian, M. R.; Moortgat, J.

    2017-12-01

    Geological carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in deep saline aquifers has been increasingly recognized as a feasible technology to stabilize the atmospheric carbon concentrations and subsequently mitigate the global warming. Solubility trapping is one of the most effective storage mechanisms, which is associated initially with diffusion-driven slow dissolution of gaseous CO2 into the aqueous phase, followed by density-driven convective mixing of CO2 throughout the aquifer. The convection includes both diffusion and fast advective transport of the dissolved CO2. We study the fluid dynamics of CO2 convection in the underlying single aqueous-phase region. Two modeling approaches are employed to define the system: (i) a constant-concentration condition for CO2 in aqueous phase at the top boundary, and (ii) a sufficiently low, constant injection-rate for CO2 from top boundary. The latter allows for thermodynamically consistent evolution of the CO2 composition and the aqueous phase density against the rate at which the dissolved CO2 convects. Here we accurately model the full nonlinear phase behavior of brine-CO2 mixture in a confined domain altered by dissolution and compressibility, while relaxing the common Boussinesq approximation. We discover new flow regimes and present quantitative scaling relations for global characters of spreading, mixing, and dissolution flux in two- and three-dimensional media for the both model types. We then revisit the universal Sherwood-Rayleigh scaling that is under debate for porous media convective flows. Our findings confirm the sublinear scaling for the constant-concentration case, while reconciling the classical linear scaling for the constant-injection model problem. The results provide a detailed perspective into how the available modeling strategies affect the prediction ability for the total amount of CO2 dissolved in the long term within saline aquifers of different permeabilities.

  11. Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

    2014-01-01

    Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

  12. Warm pre-stressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedner, G.

    1983-01-01

    Literature survey and critical evaluation of the phenomenon of warm pre-stressing (WPS) is presented. It is found that the cause of it is not clear and a calculated control is missing. The effect of irradiation is unknown, and the influence of WPS on the behaviour of reactor vessels is discussed. (G.B.)

  13. Being Warm-Hearted

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李函; 任汉鼎

    2017-01-01

    Good morning,ladies and gentlemen.It’s my honor to address[向……致辞] you.My English name is Isabella.I’m a high school student of 17.I have some good personality traits[特点],including being warm-hearted.So here comes my topic:Being

  14. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  15. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  16. Paralyzed warming world

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 81-86 ISSN 1876-8156 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : global warming * climate Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://ojs.ubvu.vu.nl/alf/article/view/134/250

  17. New Claviceps species from warm-season grasses

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Pažoutová, Sylvie; Odvody, G.; Frederickson, D.E.; Chudíčková, Milada; Olšovská, Jana; Kolařík, Miroslav

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 49, č. 1 (2011), s. 145-165 ISSN 1560-2745 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/97/0611 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : Ascomycota * Taxonomy * Phylogeny Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology Impact factor: 4.769, year: 2011

  18. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shongwe, M.E.

    2010-01-01

    Climate extremes are rarely occurring natural phenomena in the climate system. They often pose one of the greatest environmental threats to human and natural systems. Statistical methods are commonly used to investigate characteristics of climate extremes. The fitted statistical properties are often

  19. Warm season performance of horizontal subsurface flow constructed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    2013-06-14

    Jun 14, 2013 ... degradation and population risk of diseases particularly ..... 5G: gravel substrate with a HRT of 5 days; 5S: sand substrate with a HRT of 5 days; 10G: gravel substrate with a .... American Public Health Association; American.

  20. A Numerical Study of Nonlinear Nonhydrostatic Conditional Symmetric Instability in a Convectively Unstable Atmosphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seman, Charles J.

    1994-06-01

    Nonlinear nonhydrostatic conditional symmetric instability (CSI) is studied as an initial value problem using a two-dimensional (y, z)nonlinear, nonhydrostatic numerical mesoscale/cloud model. The initial atmosphere for the rotating, baroclinic (BCF) simulation contains large convective available potential energy (CAPE). Analytical theory, various model output diagnostics, and a companion nonrotating barotropic (BTNF) simulation are used to interpret the results from the BCF simulation. A single warm moist thermal initiates convection for the two 8-h simulations.The BCF simulation exhibited a very intricate life cycle. Following the initial convection, a series of discrete convective cells developed within a growing mesoscale circulation. Between hours 4 and 8, the circulation grew upscale into a structure resembling that of a squall-line mesoscale convective system (MCS). The mesoscale updrafts were nearly vertical and the circulation was strongest on the baroclinically cool side of the initial convection, as predicted by a two-dimensional Lagrangian parcel model of CSI with CAPE. The cool-side mesoscale circulation grew nearly exponentially over the last 5 h as it slowly propagated toward the warm air. Significant vertical transport of zonal momentum occurred in the (multicellular) convection that developed, resulting in local subgeostrophic zonal wind anomalies aloft. Over time, geostrophic adjustment acted to balance these anomalies. The system became warm core, with mesohigh pressure aloft and mesolow pressure at the surface. A positive zonal wind anomaly also formed downstream from the mesohigh.Analysis of the BCF simulation showed that convective momentum transport played a key role in the evolution of the simulated MCS, in that it fostered the development of the nonlinear CSI on mesoscale time scales. The vertical momentum transport in the initial deep convection generated a subgeostrophic zonal momentum anomaly aloft; the resulting imbalance in pressure

  1. Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

  2. Evaluation of cloud convection and tracer transport in a three-dimensional chemical transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Feng

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the performance of cloud convection and tracer transport in a global off-line 3-D chemical transport model. Various model simulations are performed using different meteorological (reanalyses (ERA-40, ECMWF operational and ECMWF Interim to diagnose the updraft mass flux, convective precipitation and cloud top height.

    The diagnosed upward mass flux distribution from TOMCAT agrees quite well with the ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim below 200 hPa. Inclusion of midlevel convection improves the agreement at mid-high latitudes. However, the reanalyses show strong convective transport up to 100 hPa, well into the tropical tropopause layer (TTL, which is not captured by TOMCAT. Similarly, the model captures the spatial and seasonal variation of convective cloud top height although the mean modelled value is about 2 km lower than observed.

    The ERA-Interim reanalyses have smaller archived upward convective mass fluxes than ERA-40, and smaller convective precipitation, which is in better agreement with satellite-based data. TOMCAT captures these relative differences when diagnosing convection from the large-scale fields. The model also shows differences in diagnosed convection with the version of the operational analyses used, which cautions against using results of the model from one specific time period as a general evaluation.

    We have tested the effect of resolution on the diagnosed modelled convection with simulations ranging from 5.6° × 5.6° to 1° × 1°. Overall, in the off-line model, the higher model resolution gives stronger vertical tracer transport, however, it does not make a large change to the diagnosed convective updraft mass flux (i.e., the model results using the convection scheme fail to capture the strong convection transport up to 100 hPa as seen in the archived convective mass fluxes. Similarly, the resolution of the forcing winds in the higher resolution CTM does not make a

  3. Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karki, Ramchandra; Hasson, Shabeh ul; Gerlitz, Lars; Schickhoff, Udo; Scholten, Thomas; Böhner, Jürgen

    2017-07-01

    Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation as well as the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest), Rolwaling, and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75°) reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5, and 1 km (D1, D2, and D3) for one complete hydrological year (October 2014-September 2015), using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions, however, overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are generally reproduced well by all resolutions; however, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower elevations show a simultaneous warm bias. Unlike higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed in the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such a peak on the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5 km resolution

  4. Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Karki

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale dynamical refinements of global climate models or atmospheric reanalysis have shown their potential to resolve intricate atmospheric processes, their land surface interactions, and subsequently, realistic distribution of climatic fields in complex terrains. Given that such potential is yet to be explored within the central Himalayan region of Nepal, we investigate the skill of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model with different spatial resolutions in reproducing the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal characteristics of the near-surface air temperature and precipitation as well as the spatial shifts in the diurnal monsoonal precipitation peak over the Khumbu (Everest, Rolwaling, and adjacent southern areas. Therefore, the ERA-Interim (0.75° reanalysis has been dynamically refined to 25, 5, and 1 km (D1, D2, and D3 for one complete hydrological year (October 2014–September 2015, using the one-way nested WRF model run with mild nudging and parameterized convection for the outer but explicitly resolved convection for the inner domains. Our results suggest that D3 realistically reproduces the monsoonal precipitation, as compared to its underestimation by D1 but overestimation by D2. All three resolutions, however, overestimate precipitation from the westerly disturbances, owing to simulating anomalously higher intensity of few intermittent events. Temperatures are generally reproduced well by all resolutions; however, winter and pre-monsoon seasons feature a high cold bias for high elevations while lower elevations show a simultaneous warm bias. Unlike higher resolutions, D1 fails to realistically reproduce the regional-scale nocturnal monsoonal peak precipitation observed in the Himalayan foothills and its diurnal shift towards high elevations, whereas D2 resolves these characteristics but exhibits a limited skill in reproducing such a peak on the river valley scale due to the limited representation of the narrow valleys at 5

  5. Retrieving latent heating vertical structure from cloud and precipitation Profiles—Part I: Warm rain processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Qilong; Li, Rui; Wu, Xiaoqing; Fu, Yunfei

    2013-01-01

    An exploratory study on physical based latent heat (LH) retrieval algorithm is conducted by parameterizing the physical linkages of hydrometeor profiles of cloud and precipitation to the major processes related to the phase change of atmospheric water. Specifically, rain events are segregated into three rain types: warm, convective, and stratiform, based on their dynamical and thermodynamical characteristics. As the first of the series, only the warm rain LH algorithm is presented and evaluated here. The major microphysical processes of condensation and evaporation for warm rain are parameterized through traditional rain growth theory, with the aid of Cloud Resolving Model (CRM) simulations. The evaluation or the self-consistency tests indicate that the physical based retrievals capture the fundamental LH processes associated with the warm rain life cycle. There is no significant systematic bias in terms of convection strength, illustrated by the month-long CRM simulation as the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) experience from initial, mature, to decay stages. The overall monthly-mean LH comparison showed that the total LH, as well as condensation heating and evaporation cooling components, agree with the CRM simulation. -- Highlights: ► An exploratory study on physics-based warm rain latent heat retrieval algorithm. ► Utilize the full information of the vertical structures of cloud and rainfall. ► Directly link water mass measurements to latent heat at instantaneous pixel level. ► Applicable at various stages of cloud system life cycle

  6. Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

  7. Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

    2004-01-01

    In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

  8. Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madlen Fischer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

  9. Mantle Convection on Modern Supercomputers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weismüller, J.; Gmeiner, B.; Huber, M.; John, L.; Mohr, M.; Rüde, U.; Wohlmuth, B.; Bunge, H. P.

    2015-12-01

    Mantle convection is the cause for plate tectonics, the formation of mountains and oceans, and the main driving mechanism behind earthquakes. The convection process is modeled by a system of partial differential equations describing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy. Characteristic to mantle flow is the vast disparity of length scales from global to microscopic, turning mantle convection simulations into a challenging application for high-performance computing. As system size and technical complexity of the simulations continue to increase, design and implementation of simulation models for next generation large-scale architectures is handled successfully only in an interdisciplinary context. A new priority program - named SPPEXA - by the German Research Foundation (DFG) addresses this issue, and brings together computer scientists, mathematicians and application scientists around grand challenges in HPC. Here we report from the TERRA-NEO project, which is part of the high visibility SPPEXA program, and a joint effort of four research groups. TERRA-NEO develops algorithms for future HPC infrastructures, focusing on high computational efficiency and resilience in next generation mantle convection models. We present software that can resolve the Earth's mantle with up to 1012 grid points and scales efficiently to massively parallel hardware with more than 50,000 processors. We use our simulations to explore the dynamic regime of mantle convection and assess the impact of small scale processes on global mantle flow.

  10. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  11. Evolution of Indian Ocean biases in the summer monsoon season hindcasts from the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecasting System GloSea5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevuturi, A.; Turner, A. G.; Woolnough, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we investigate the development of biases in the Indian Ocean region in summer hindcasts of the UK Met Office coupled initialised global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2. Previous work has demonstrated the rapid evolution of strong monsoon circulation biases over India from seasonal forecasts initialised in early May, together with coupled strong easterly wind biases on the equator. We analyse a set of three springtime start dates for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011) and fifteen total ensemble members for each year. We use comparisons with a variety of observations to test the rate of evolving mean-state biases in the Arabian Sea, over India, and over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Biases are all shown to develop rapidly, particularly for the circulation bias over India that is connected to convection. These circulation biases later reach the surface and lead to responses in Arabian Sea SST in accordance with coastal and Ekman upwelling processes. We also assess the evolution of radiation and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Meanwhile at the equator, easterly biases in surface winds are shown to develop rapidly, consistent with an SST pattern that is consistent with positive-Indian Ocean dipole mean state conditions (warm western equatorial Indian Ocean, cold east). This bias develops consistent with coupled ocean-atmosphere exchanges and Bjerknes feedback. We hypothesize that lower tropospheric easterly wind biases developing in the equatorial region originate from the surface, and also that signals of the cold bias in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean propagate to the Bay of Bengal via coastal Kelvin waves. Earlier work has shown the utility of wind-stress corrections in the Indian Ocean for correcting the easterly winds bias there and ultimately improving the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole. We identify and test this wind-stress correction technique in case study years from the hindcast period to see their impact on seasonal

  12. Phytoplankton response to winter warming modified by large-bodied zooplankton: an experimental microcosm study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu He

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available While several field investigations have demonstrated significant effects of cool season (winter or spring warming on phytoplankton development, the role played by large-bodied zooplankton grazers for the responses of phytoplankton to winter warming is ambiguous. We conducted an outdoor experiment to compare the effect of winter warming (heating by 3°C in combination with presence and absence of Daphnia grazing (D. similis on phytoplankton standing crops and community structure under eutrophic conditions. When Daphnia were absent, warming was associated with significant increases in phytoplankton biomass and cyanobacterial dominance. In contrast, when Daphnia were present, warming effects on phytoplankton dynamics were offset by warming-enhanced grazing, resulting in no significant change in biomass or taxonomic dominance. These results emphasize that large-bodied zooplankton like Daphnia spp. may play an important role in modulating the interactions between climate warming and phytoplankton dynamics in nutrient rich lake ecosystems.

  13. Convective behaviour in severe accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clement, C.F.

    1988-01-01

    The nature and magnitude of the hazard from radioactivity posed by a possible nuclear accident depend strongly on convective behaviour within and immediately adjacent to the plant in question. This behaviour depends upon the nature of the vapour-gas-aerosol mixture concerned, and can show unusual properties such as 'upside-down' convection in which hot mixtures fall and cold mixtures rise. Predictions and criteria as to the types of behaviour which could possibly occur are summarised. Possible applications to present reactors are considered, and ways in which presently expected convection could be drastically modified are described. In some circumstances these could be used to suppress the radioactive source term or to switch its effect between distant dilute contamination and severe local contamination. (author). 8 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

  14. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  15. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  16. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  17. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  18. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  19. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  20. A novel approach to modeling atmospheric convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, A.

    2016-12-01

    The inadequate representation of clouds continues to be a large source of uncertainty in the projections from global climate models (GCMs). With continuous advances in computational power, however, the ability for GCMs to explicitly resolve cumulus convection will soon be realized. For this purpose, Jung and Arakawa (2008) proposed the Vector Vorticity Model (VVM), in which vorticity is the predicted variable instead of momentum. This has the advantage of eliminating the pressure gradient force within the framework of an anelastic system. However, the VVM was designed for use on a planar quadrilateral grid, making it unsuitable for implementation in global models discretized on the sphere. Here we have proposed a modification to the VVM where instead the curl of the horizontal vorticity is the primary predicted variable. This allows us to maintain the benefits of the original VVM while working within the constraints of a non-quadrilateral mesh. We found that our proposed model produced results from a warm bubble simulation that were consistent with the VVM. Further improvements that can be made to the VVM are also discussed.

  1. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  2. A-Train Observations of Deep Convective Storm Tops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setvak, Martin; Bedka, Kristopher; Lindsey, Daniel T.; Sokol, Alois; Charvat, Zdenek; Stastka, Jindrich; Wang, Pao K.

    2013-01-01

    The paper highlights simultaneous observations of tops of deep convective clouds from several space-borne instruments including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) of the Aqua satellite, Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) of the CloudSat satellite, and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) flown on the CALIPSO satellite. These satellites share very close orbits, thus together with several other satellites they are referred to as the "A-Train" constellation. Though the primary responsibility of these satellites and their instrumentation is much broader than observations of fine-scale processes atop convective storms, in this study we document how data from the A-Train can contribute to a better understanding and interpretation of various storm-top features, such as overshooting tops, cold-U/V and cold ring features with their coupled embedded warm areas, above anvil ice plumes and jumping cirrus. The relationships between MODIS multi-spectral brightness temperature difference (BTD) fields and cloud top signatures observed by the CPR and CALIOP are also examined in detail to highlight the variability in BTD signals across convective storm events.

  3. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  4. Topology Optimization for Convection Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexandersen, Joe

    2011-01-01

    This report deals with the topology optimization of convection problems.That is, the aim of the project is to develop, implement and examine topology optimization of purely thermal and coupled thermomechanical problems,when the design-dependent eects of convection are taken into consideration.......This is done by the use of a self-programmed FORTRAN-code, which builds on an existing 2D-plane thermomechanical nite element code implementing during the course `41525 FEM-Heavy'. The topology optimizationfeatures have been implemented from scratch, and allows the program to optimize elastostatic mechanical...

  5. Experimental methods in natural convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koster, J.N.

    1982-11-01

    Some common experimental techniques to determine local velocities and to visualize temperature fields in natural convection research are discussed. First the physics and practice of anemometers are discussed with emphasis put on optical anemometers. In the second and third case the physics and practice of the most developed interferometers are discussed; namely differential interferometry for visualization of temperature gradient fields and holographic interferometry for visualization of temperature fields. At the Institut fuer Reaktorbauelemente these three measuring techniques are applied for convection and pipe flow studies. (orig.) [de

  6. Continuous Cropping and Moist Deep Convection on the Canadian Prairies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devon E. Worth

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Summerfallow is cropland that is purposely kept out of production during a growing season to conserve soil moisture. On the Canadian Prairies, a trend to continuous cropping with a reduction in summerfallow began after the summerfallow area peaked in 1976. This study examined the impact of this land-use change on convective available potential energy (CAPE, a necessary but not sufficient condition for moist deep convection. All else being equal, an increase in CAPE increases the probability-of-occurrence of convective clouds and their intensity if they occur. Representative Bowen ratios for the Black, Dark Brown, and Brown soil zones were determined for 1976: the maximum summerfallow year, 2001: our baseline year, and 20xx: a hypothetical year with the maximum-possible annual crop area. Average mid-growing-season Bowen ratios and noon solar radiation were used to estimate the reduction in the lifted index (LI from land-use weighted evapotranspiration in each study year. LI is an index of CAPE, and a reduction in LI indicates an increase in CAPE. The largest reductions in LI were found for the Black soil zone. They were −1.61 ± 0.18, −1.77 ± 0.14 and −1.89 ± 0.16 in 1976, 2001 and 20xx, respectively. These results suggest that, all else being equal, the probability-of-occurrence of moist deep convection in the Black soil zone was lower in 1976 than in the base year 2001, and it will be higher in 20xx when the annual crop area reaches a maximum. The trend to continuous cropping had less impact in the drier Dark Brown and Brown soil zones.

  7. Differential effects of ambient temperature on warm cell responses to infrared radiation in the bloodsucking bug Rhodnius prolixus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zopf, Lydia M; Lazzari, Claudio R; Tichy, Harald

    2014-03-01

    Thermoreceptors provide animals with background information about the thermal environment, which is at least indirectly a prerequisite for thermoregulation and assists bloodsucking insects in the search for their host. Recordings from peg-in-pit sensilla and tapered hairs on the antennae of the bug Rhodnius prolixus revealed two physiologically different types of warm cells. Both types responded more strongly to temperature pulses produced by switching between two air streams at different constant temperatures than to infrared radiation pulses employed in still air. In addition, both warm cells were better able to discriminate small changes in air temperature than in infrared radiation. As convective and radiant heat determines the discharge, it is impossible for a single warm cell to signal the nature of the stimulus unequivocally. Individual responses are ambiguous, not with regard to temperature change, but with regard to its source. We argue that the bugs use mechanical flow information to differentiate between pulses of convective and radiant heat. However, if pulses of radiant heat occur together with a constant temperature air stream, the mechanical cues would not allow avoiding ambiguity that convective heat introduces into radiant heat stimulation. In this situation, the warm cell in the tapered hairs produced stronger responses than those in the peg-in-pit sensilla. The reversal in the excitability of the two types of warm cells provides a criterion by which to distinguish the combination of convective and radiant heat from the stimuli presented alone.

  8. IMF By associated interhemispheric asymmetries in ionospheric convection and field-aligned currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunduri, B.; Baker, J.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Clausen, L.; Ribeiro, A.

    2012-12-01

    The solar wind-magnetosphere interaction plays an important role in controlling the dynamics of ionospheric convection. It is widely known that the By component of IMF generates asymmetries in ionospheric convection between the northern and southern polar caps. Some studies show that IMF By-generated electric field penetrates into the closed magnetosphere producing differences in the high latitude ionospheric convection between hemispheres. The differences in convection were attributed to field-aligned potential drop between hemispheres resulting in flow of interhemispheric field aligned currents. In the current paper we present interhemispheric observations of high latitude ionospheric convection on closed field lines in the noon-dusk sector. The observations reveal that the convection is stronger in the northern (southern) hemisphere when IMF By is positive (negative) irrespective of season. The inter-hemispheric differences can be attributed to the flow of interhemispheric field aligned currents which support the existence of oppositely-directed zonal plasma flows in the closed field line regions, suppressing the convection in one hemisphere and aiding it in the other. We estimate the strength of these currents, analyze their characteristics and identify the various factors such as magnetic local time, magnetic latitude and ionospheric conductivity that impact them.

  9. Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Hosking

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a climate resolution (N216, ~0.83°×~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

  10. Global warming and allergy in Asia Minor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajin, Munir Demir; Cingi, Cemal; Oghan, Fatih; Gurbuz, Melek Kezban

    2013-01-01

    The earth is warming, and it is warming quickly. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that global warming is correlated with the frequency of pollen-induced respiratory allergy and allergic diseases. There is a body of evidence suggesting that the prevalence of allergic diseases induced by pollens is increasing in developed countries, a trend that is also evident in the Mediterranean area. Because of its mild winters and sunny days with dry summers, the Mediterranean area is different from the areas of central and northern Europe. Classical examples of allergenic pollen-producing plants of the Mediterranean climate include Parietaria, Olea and Cupressaceae. Asia Minor is a Mediterranean region that connects Asia and Europe, and it includes considerable coastal areas. Gramineae pollens are the major cause of seasonal allergic rhinitis in Asia Minor, affecting 1.3-6.4 % of the population, in accordance with other European regions. This article emphasizes the importance of global climate change and anticipated increases in the prevalence and severity of allergic disease in Asia Minor, mediated through worsening air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production, from an otolaryngologic perspective.

  11. Segregation and convection in dendritic alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poirier, D. R.

    1990-01-01

    Microsegregation in dentritic alloys is discussed, including solidification with and without thermal gradient, the convection of interdendritic liquid. The conservation of momentum, energy, and solute is considered. Directional solidification and thermosolutal convection are discussed.

  12. Tracking the MJO Convection and its Impact on the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent Using Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerns, B. W.; Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent (MC) is the most active convection center in the tropics, and the most important modes of variability are the diurnal cycle and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Previous studies have shown that the MC has strong diurnal variability compared with the rest of the tropics, and the diurnal cycle of convection over the MC is amplified during the passage of an MJO. One outstanding science question is how the passage of the active MJO affects the diurnal cycle. The atmospheric, upper ocean, and land surface forcing factors contributing to the diurnal cycle need to be clarified. In order to address this, large scale precipitation tracking (LPT) is used to identify MJO active and suppressed periods for 2000-2015. To document the diurnal cycle of convection during the active and suppressed periods, TRMM/GPM and mesoscale cloud cluster tracking are used. Finally, the LPT tracking is used to composite the satellite-estimated surface wind, humidity, temperature, cloud cover, and soil moisture over the islands for active versus suppressed MJO periods. In active MJO periods, the diurnal convection in the surrounding marginal seas is enhanced and the diurnal convection over land is decreased. The islands of the MC have greater soil moisture, more cloud cover, and do not warm up as much during the day, leading to a weaker afternoon maximum over land. But how is nocturnal convection over the sea increased? The largest, most mature convective cloud systems are found over the marginal seas in the early morning. This is hypothesized to mainly be a consequence of the longer life cycle of convective systems in the favorable large-scale active MJO. The propagation of the MJO across the MC is facilitated by the enhanced nocturnal deep convection over the sea. In contrast, In the suppressed period the convection is mostly daytime forced convection over land which is locked to the terrain.

  13. Boiling Suppression in Convective Flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aounallah, Y.

    2004-01-01

    The development of convective boiling heat transfer correlations and analytical models has almost exclusively been based on measurements of the total heat flux, and therefore on the overall two-phase heat transfer coefficient, when the well-known heat transfer correlations have often assumed additive mechanisms, one for each mode of heat transfer, convection and boiling. While the global performance of such correlations can readily be assessed, the predictive capability of the individual components of the correlation has usually remained elusive. This becomes important when, for example, developing mechanistic models for subcooled void formation based on the partitioning of the wall heat flux into a boiling and a convective component, or when extending a correlation beyond its original range of applications where the preponderance of the heat transfer mechanisms involved can be significantly different. A new examination of existing experimental heat transfer data obtained under fixed hydrodynamic conditions, whereby the local flow conditions are decoupled from the local heat flux, has allowed the unequivocal isolation of the boiling contribution over a broad range of thermodynamic qualities (0 to 0.8) for water at 7 MPa. Boiling suppression, as the quality increases, has consequently been quantified, thus providing valuable new insights on the functionality and contribution of boiling in convective flows. (author)

  14. Tropical teleconnections via the ocean and atmosphere induced by Southern Ocean deep convective events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gunn, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

    2016-12-01

    of the current ESMs with frequent deep-sea convection events in the control state predict a permanent shut down of this convection under climate change in the 21st century. We propose that the preindustrial convective state of the Southern Ocean and its evolution under climate warming will have implications for the SO-tropical teleconnections.

  15. Comparing and contrasting Holocene and Eemian warm periods with greenhouse-gas-induced warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.C.; Kutzbach, J.

    1990-01-01

    Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses to both types of forcing, in terms of land/ocean and latitudinal averages, are also compared. The zonal average and annual (or seasonal) average radiation fluxes associated with the different-from-present orbital conditions that existed for those interglacials are compared to the radiation flux associated with CO 2 -induced warming. There are some similarities but also significant differences in the two types of radiation flux perturbations, and there are both similarities and differences in the simulated climatic responses

  16. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  17. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  18. Covariability in the Monthly Mean Convective and Radiative Diurnal Cycles in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodson, Jason B.; Taylor, Patrick C.

    2015-01-01

    The diurnal cycle of convective clouds greatly influences the radiative energy balance in convectively active regions of Earth, through both direct presence, and the production of anvil and stratiform clouds. Previous studies show that the frequency and properties of convective clouds can vary on monthly timescales as a result of variability in the monthly mean atmospheric state. Furthermore, the radiative budget in convectively active regions also varies by up to 7 Wm-2 in convectively active regions. These facts suggest that convective clouds connect atmospheric state variability and radiation variability beyond clear sky effects alone. Previous research has identified monthly covariability between the diurnal cycle of CERES-observed top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and multiple atmospheric state variables from reanalysis over the Amazon region. ASVs that enhance (reduce) deep convection, such as CAPE (LTS), tend to shift the daily OLR and cloud albedo maxima earlier (later) in the day by 2-3 hr. We first test the analysis method using multiple reanalysis products for both the dry and wet seasons to further investigate the robustness of the preliminary results. We then use CloudSat data as an independent cloud observing system to further evaluate the relationships of cloud properties to variability in radiation and atmospheric states. While CERES can decompose OLR variability into clear sky and cloud effects, it cannot determine what variability in cloud properties lead to variability in the radiative cloud effects. Cloud frequency, cloud top height, and cloud microphysics all contribute to the cloud radiative effect, all of which are observable by CloudSat. In addition, CloudSat can also observe the presence and variability of deep convective cores responsible for the production of anvil clouds. We use these capabilities to determine the covariability of convective cloud properties and the radiative diurnal cycle.

  19. A transilient matrix for moist convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romps, D.; Kuang, Z.

    2011-08-15

    A method is introduced for diagnosing a transilient matrix for moist convection. This transilient matrix quantifies the nonlocal transport of air by convective eddies: for every height z, it gives the distribution of starting heights z{prime} for the eddies that arrive at z. In a cloud-resolving simulation of deep convection, the transilient matrix shows that two-thirds of the subcloud air convecting into the free troposphere originates from within 100 m of the surface. This finding clarifies which initial height to use when calculating convective available potential energy from soundings of the tropical troposphere.

  20. Focus: Assessing the regional impacts of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, Mingko

    1992-01-01

    Five studies are presented which assess the impacts of global warming on physical, economic, and social systems in Canada. A study on the use of climatic change scenarios to estimate ecoclimatic impacts was carried out. These scenarios may include synthetic scenarios produced from historical data, global climate model (GCM) simulations, and hybrid scenarios. The advantages and drawbacks of various scenarios are discussed along with the criteria for selecting impact assessment models. An examination of water resources in the Great Lakes and the Saskatchewan River subbasin uses case studies of two areas that have experienced wide hydrological variations due to climatic variability in order to determine the impacts of global warming scenarios on net basin supply. Problems of developing regional models are discussed and results of projected changes in net basin supply are presented for GCM-based simulations and hypothetical warming scenarios. A study of the impacts of climate warming on transportation and the regional economy in northern Canada uses stochastic models to provide examples of how Mackenzie River barge traffic will be affected. The economic impacts of the resultant lengthened shipping season are outlined under three scenarios. The implications of climatic change on Ontario agriculture are assessed according to GCM scenarios. Results are presented for crop yields and production as well as land resource suitability. Finally, sociocultural implications of global warming on the Arctic and the Inuit are summarized, with reference to a past warming episode occurring around the year 1000. 45 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs

  1. Convective aggregation in realistic convective-scale simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Christopher E.

    2017-06-01

    To investigate the real-world relevance of idealized-model convective self-aggregation, five 15 day cases of real organized convection in the tropics are simulated. These include multiple simulations of each case to test sensitivities of the convective organization and mean states to interactive radiation, interactive surface fluxes, and evaporation of rain. These simulations are compared to self-aggregation seen in the same model configured to run in idealized radiative-convective equilibrium. Analysis of the budget of the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy shows that control runs have significant positive contributions to organization from radiation and negative contributions from surface fluxes and transport, similar to idealized runs once they become aggregated. Despite identical lateral boundary conditions for all experiments in each case, systematic differences in mean column water vapor (CWV), CWV distribution shape, and CWV autocorrelation length scale are found between the different sensitivity runs, particularly for those without interactive radiation, showing that there are at least some similarities in sensitivities to these feedbacks in both idealized and realistic simulations (although the organization of precipitation shows less sensitivity to interactive radiation). The magnitudes and signs of these systematic differences are consistent with a rough equilibrium between (1) equalization due to advection from the lateral boundaries and (2) disaggregation due to the absence of interactive radiation, implying disaggregation rates comparable to those in idealized runs with aggregated initial conditions and noninteractive radiation. This points to a plausible similarity in the way that radiation feedbacks maintain aggregated convection in both idealized simulations and the real world.Plain Language SummaryUnderstanding the processes that lead to the organization of tropical rainstorms is an important challenge for weather

  2. CRUCIB: an axisymmetric convection code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, L.A.

    1975-03-01

    The CRUCIB code was written in support of an experimental program aimed at measurement of thermal diffusivities of refractory liquids. Precise values of diffusivity are necessary to realistic analysis of reactor safety problems, nuclear waste disposal procedures, and fundamental metal forming processes. The code calculates the axisymmetric transient convective motions produced in a right circular cylindrical crucible, which is surface heated by an annular heat pulse. Emphasis of this report is placed on the input-output options of the CRUCIB code, which are tailored to assess the importance of the convective heat transfer in determining the surface temperature distribution. Use is limited to Prandtl numbers less than unity; larger values can be accommodated by replacement of a single block of the code, if desired. (U.S.)

  3. Fluid convection, constraint and causation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Robert C.

    2012-01-01

    Complexity—nonlinear dynamics for my purposes in this essay—is rich with metaphysical and epistemological implications but is receiving sustained philosophical analysis only recently. I will explore some of the subtleties of causation and constraint in Rayleigh–Bénard convection as an example of a complex phenomenon, and extract some lessons for further philosophical reflection on top-down constraint and causation particularly with respect to causal foundationalism. PMID:23386955

  4. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  5. First Principles Analysis of Convection in the Earth's Mantle, Eustatic Sea Level and Earth Volume

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinsland, G. L.

    2011-12-01

    Steady state convection (convection whereby heat leaving the mantle at the top is equal to the heat entering the mantle across the core mantle boundary and that created within the mantle) of the Earth's mantle is, to a very good approximation, both a constant mass and constant volume process. Mass or volume which moves to one place; e.g., an oceanic ridge; must be accompanied by mass or volume removed from another place. The location of removal, whether from underneath of an ocean or a continent, determines the relationship between oceanic ridge volume and eustatic sea level. If all of the volume entering a ridge were to come from under an oceanic basin then the size of the ridge would not affect eustatic sea level as it would be compensated by a lowering of the sea floor elsewhere. If the volume comes from under a continent then the hypsometry of the continent becomes important. Thus, eustatic sea level is not simply related to convection rate and oceanic ridge volume as posited by Hays and Pitman(1973). Non-steady state convection is still a constant mass process but is not a constant volume process. The mantle experiences a net gain of heat, warms and expands during periods of relatively slow convection (that being convection rate which is less than that necessary to transport incoming and internally created heat to the surface). Conversely, the mantle has a net loss of heat, cools and contracts during periods of relatively rapid convection. The Earth itself expands and contracts as the mantle does. During rapid convection more volume is delivered from the interior of the mantle to the Earth's ridge system than during slow convection. The integral of the difference of ridge system volume between fast and slow convection over a fast-slow convection cycle is a measure of the difference in volume of the mantle over a cycle. The magnitude of the Earth's volume expansion and contraction as calculated from published values for the volume of ocean ridges and is about

  6. Cryogenic helium gas convection research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, R.J.

    1994-10-01

    This is a report prepared by a group interested in doing research in thermal convection using the large scale refrigeration facilities available at the SSC Laboratories (SSCL). The group preparing this report consists of Michael McAshan at SSCL, Robert Behringer at Duke University, Katepalli Sreenivasan at Yale University, Xiao-Zhong Wu at Northern Illinois University and Russell Donnelly at the University of Oregon, who served as Editor for this report. This study reports the research and development opportunities in such a project, the technical requirements and feasibility of its construction and operation, and the costs associated with the needed facilities and support activities. The facility will be a unique national resource for studies of high-Reynolds-number and high-Rayleigh-number and high Rayleigh number turbulence phenomena, and is one of the six items determined as suitable for potential funding through a screening of Expressions of Interest. The proposed facility is possible only because of the advanced cryogenic technology available at the SSCL. Typical scientific issues to be addressed in the facility will be discussed. It devolved during our study, that while the main experiment is still considered to be the thermal convection experiment discussed in our original Expression of Interest, there are now a very substantial set of other, important and fundamental experiments which can be done with the large cryostat proposed for the convection experiment. We believe the facility could provide several decades of front-line research in turbulence, and shall describe why this is so

  7. Thermosolutal convection during dendritic solidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrich, J. C.; Nandapurkar, P.; Poirier, D. R.; Felicelli, S.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for directional solidification of a binary alloy including a dendritic region underlying an all-liquid region. It is assumed initially that there exists a nonconvecting state with planar isotherms and isoconcentrates solidifying at a constant velocity. The stability of this system has been analyzed and nonlinear calculations are performed that show the effect of convection in the solidification process when the system is unstable. Results of calculations for various cases defined by the initial temperature gradient at the dendrite tips and varying strength of the gravitational field are presented for systems involving lead-tin alloys. The results show that the systems are stable for a gravitational constant of 0.0001 g(0) and that convection can be suppressed by appropriate choice of the container's size for higher values of the gravitational constant. It is also concluded that for the lead-tin systems considered, convection in the mushy zone is not significant below the upper 20 percent of the dendritic zone, if al all.

  8. Structure of Warm Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaberg, S.; Uhrenholt, H.

    2009-01-01

    We study the structure of nuclei in the energy region between the ground state and the neutron separation energy, here called warm nuclei. The onset of chaos in the nucleus as excitation energy is increased is briefly reviewed. Chaos implies fluctuations of energies and wave functions qualitatively the same for all chaotic nuclei. On the other hand, large structure effects are seen, e.g. in the level-density function at same excitation energies. A microscopic model for the level density is reviewed and we discuss effects on structure of the total level-density function, parity enhancement, and the spin distribution function. Comparisons to data are performed at the neutron separation energy for all observed nuclei, and structure of the level-density function for a few measured cases. The role of structure effects in the level-density function for fission dynamics is exemplified.

  9. Observing the seasonal cycle of the upper ocean in the Ross Sea, Antarctica, with autonomous profiling floats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, D. F.; Springer, S. R.; Padman, L.; Fricker, H. A.; Bell, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    The upper layers of the Southern Ocean where it meets the Antarctic ice sheet undergoes a large seasonal cycle controlled by surface radiation and by freshwater fluxes, both of which are strongly influenced by sea ice. In regions where seasonal sea ice and icebergs limit use of ice-tethered profilers and conventional moorings, autonomous profiling floats can sample the upper ocean. The deployment of seven Apex floats (by sea) and six ALAMO floats (by air) provides unique upper ocean hydrographic data in the Ross Sea close to the Ross Ice Shelf front. A novel choice of mission parameters - setting parking depth deeper than the seabed - limits their drift, allowing us to deploy the floats close to the ice shelf front, while sea ice avoidance algorithms allow the floats to to sample through winter under sea ice. Hydrographic profiles show the detailed development of the seasonal mixed layer close to the Ross front, and interannual variability of the seasonal mixed layer and deeper water masses on the central Ross Sea continental shelf. After the sea ice breakup in spring, a warm and fresh surface mixed layer develops, further warming and deepening throughout the summer. The mixed layer deepens, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0ºC in mid-February. By March, the surface energy budget becomes negative and sea ice begins to form, creating a cold, saline and dense surface layer. Once these processes overcome the stable summer stratification, convection erodes the surface mixed layer, mixing some heat downwards to deeper layers. There is considerable interannual variability in the evolution and strength of the surface mixed layer: summers with shorter ice-free periods result in a cooler and shallower surface mixed layer, which accumulates less heat than the summers with longer ice-free periods. Early ice breakup occurred in all floats in 2016/17 summer, enhancing the absorbed solar flux leading to a warmer surface mixed layer. Together, these unique measurements from

  10. Interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Norman; Palma, Guillermo; Zambrano, David; Avelino, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ m α ρ e β form, where ρ m and ρ e are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w m and w e of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used

  11. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  12. Specificity Responses of Grasshoppers in Temperate Grasslands to Diel Asymmetric Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tingjuan; Hao, Shuguang; Sun, Osbert Jianxin; Kang, Le

    2012-01-01

    Background Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation. Conclusions/Significance Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and

  13. Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

  14. Assessing changes in extreme convective precipitation from a damage perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, K.; Tye, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    Projected increases in high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to which, not only are extreme events rare, but such small scale events are likely to be underreported where they don't coincide with the observation network. Rather than focus solely on the convective precipitation, understanding the characteristics of these extremes which drive damage may be more effective to assess future risks. Two sources of data are used in this study. First, sub-daily precipitation observations over the Southern Alps enable an examination of seasonal and regional patterns in high-intensity convective precipitation and their relationship with weather types. Secondly, reports of private loss and damage on a household scale are used to identify which events are most damaging, or what conditions potentially enhance the vulnerability to these extremes.This study explores the potential added value from including recorded loss and damage data to understand the risks from summertime convective precipitation events. By relating precipitation generating weather types to the severity of damage we hope to develop a mechanism to assess future risks. A further benefit would be to identify from damage reports the likely occurrence of precipitation extremes where no direct observations are available and use this information to validate remotely sensed observations.

  15. Seasonality, mobility, and livability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-31

    Signature project 4a, Seasonality, Mobility, and Livability investigated the effects of weather, season, built environment, community amenities, attitudes, and demographics on mobility and quality of life (QOL). A four season panel survey exami...

  16. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  17. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  18. Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schario, Tracy A.

    A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

  19. Convectively-driven cold layer and its influences on moisture in the UTLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Randel, W. J.; Birner, T.

    2016-12-01

    Characteristics of the cold anomaly in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) that is commonly observed with deep convection are examined using CloudSat and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation measurements. Deep convection is sampled based on the cloud top height (>17 km) from CloudSat 2B-CLDCLASS, and then temperature profiles from COSMIC are composited around the deep convection. The composite temperature shows anomalously warm troposphere (up to 14 km) and a significantly cold layer near the tropopause (at 16-18 km) in the regions of deep convection. Generally in the tropics, the cold layer has very large horizontal scale (2,000 - 6,000 km) compared to that of mesoscale convective cluster, and it lasts one or two weeks with minimum temperature anomaly of - 2K. The cold layer shows slight but clear eastward-tilted vertical structure in the deep tropics indicating a large-scale Kelvin wave response. Further analyses on circulation patterns suggest that the anomaly can be explained as a part of Gill-type response in the TTL to deep convective heating in the troposphere. Response of moisture to the cold layer is also examined in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using microwave limb sounder (MLS) measurements. The water vapor anomalies show coherent structures with the temperature and circulation anomalies. A clear dry anomaly is found in the cold layer and its outflow region, implying a large-scale dehydration process due to the convectively driven cold layer in the upper TTL.

  20. Convectively Driven Tropopause-Level Cooling and Its Influences on Stratospheric Moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joowan; Randel, William J.; Birner, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Characteristics of the tropopause-level cooling associated with tropical deep convection are examined using CloudSat radar and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) GPS radio occultation measurements. Extreme deep convection is sampled based on the cloud top height (>17 km) from CloudSat, and colocated temperature profiles from COSMIC are composited around the deep convection. Response of moisture to the tropopause-level cooling is also examined in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using microwave limb sounder measurements. The composite temperature shows an anomalous warming in the troposphere and a significant cooling near the tropopause (at 16-19 km) when deep convection occurs over the western Pacific, particularly during periods with active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The composite of the tropopause cooling has a large horizontal scale ( 6,000 km in longitude) with minimum temperature anomaly of -2 K, and it lasts more than 2 weeks with support of mesoscale convective clusters embedded within the envelope of the MJO. The water vapor anomalies show strong correlation with the temperature anomalies (i.e., dry anomaly in the cold anomaly), showing that the convectively driven tropopause cooling actively dehydrate the lower stratosphere in the western Pacific region. The moisture is also affected by anomalous Matsuno-Gill-type circulation associated with the cold anomaly, in which dry air spreads over a wide range in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). These results suggest that convectively driven tropopause cooling and associated transient circulation play an important role in the large-scale dehydration process in the TTL.

  1. [Effects of Warming and Straw Application on Soil Respiration and Enzyme Activity in a Winter Wheat Cropland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shu-tao; Sang, Lin; Zhang, Xu; Hu, Zheng-hua

    2016-02-15

    In order to investigate the effects of warming and straw application on soil respiration and enzyme activity, a field experiment was performed from November 2014 to May 2015. Four treatments, which were control (CK), warming, straw application, and warming and straw application, were arranged in field. Seasonal variability in soil respiration, soil temperature and soil moisture for different treatments were measured. Urease, invertase, and catalase activities for different treatments were measured at the elongation, booting, and anthesis stages. The results showed that soil respiration in different treatments had similar seasonal variation patterns. Seasonal mean soil respiration rates for the CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments were 1.46, 1.96, 1.92, and 2.45 micromol x (m2 x s)(-1), respectively. ANOVA indicated that both warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration compared to the control treatment. The relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature in different treatments fitted with the exponential regression function. The exponential regression functions explained 34.3%, 28.1%, 24.6%, and 32.0% variations of soil respiration for CK, warming, straw application, and warming and straw application treatments, respectively. Warming and straw applications significantly (P soil respiration and urease activity fitted with a linear regression function, with the P value of 0.061. The relationship between soil respiration and invertase (P = 0.013), and between soil respiration and catalase activity (P = 0.002) fitted well with linear regression functions.

  2. Diurnal and seasonal occurrence of polar patches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Rodger

    1996-05-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of the diurnal and seasonal variation of polar patches, as identified in two years of HF-radar data from Halley, Antarctica during a period near sunspot maximum, shows that there is a broad maximum in occurrence centred about magnetic noon, not local noon. There are minima in occurrence near midsummer and midwinter, with maxima in occurrence between equinox and winter. There are no significant correlations between the occurrence of polar patches and the corresponding hourly averages of the solar wind and IMF parameters, except that patches usually occur when the interplanetary magnetic field has a southward component. The results can be understood in terms of UT and seasonal differences in the plasma concentration being convected from the dayside ionosphere into the polar cap. In summer and winter the electron concentrations in the polar cap are high and low, respectively, but relatively unstructured. About equinox, a tongue of enhanced ionisation is convected into the polar cap; this tongue is then structured by the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field, but these Halley data cannot be used to separate the various competing mechanisms for patch formation. The observed diurnal and seasonal variation in the occurrence of polar patches are largely consistent with predictions of Sojka et al. (1994 when their results are translated into the southern hemisphere. However, the ionospheric effects of flux transfer events are still considered essential in their formation, a feature not yet included in the Sojka et al. model.

  3. Feedback mechanisms of shallow convective clouds in a warmer climate as demonstrated by changes in buoyancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagan, G.; Koren, I.; Altaratz, O.; Feingold, G.

    2018-05-01

    Cloud feedbacks could influence significantly the overall response of the climate system to global warming. Here we study the response of warm convective clouds to a uniform temperature change under constant relative humidity (RH) conditions. We show that an increase in temperature drives competing effects at the cloud scale: a reduction in the thermal buoyancy term and an increase in the humidity buoyancy term. Both effects are driven by the increased contrast in the water vapor content between the cloud and its environment, under warming with constant RH. The increase in the moisture content contrast between the cloud and its environment enhances the evaporation at the cloud margins, increases the entrainment, and acts to cool the cloud. Hence, there is a reduction in the thermal buoyancy term, despite the fact that theoretically this term should increase.

  4. American lay conceptions of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kempton, W.

    1990-01-01

    Ethnographic interviews were conducted with Americans from all walks of life in order to understand how ordinary citizens conceptualize global climate change and make value judgments about it. Most informants had heard of the greenhouse effect, but they held fundamental misconceptions that were shared across individuals. Many of these misconceptions derive from the process of fitting a new concept, global warming, into four preexisting categories: stratospheric ozone depletion, plant photosynthesis, tropospheric pollution, and personally-experienced seasonal and geographic temperature variation. Informants readily accepted that human activities could change climate and weather patterns. Indeed, most reported they had already observed changes in weather patterns, some citing space shots or atomic bomb testing as causes. Few informants connected the greenhouse effect to energy or fuel consumption, although the connection was easily understood when explained by the interviewers

  5. Convective overshoot at the solar tachocline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Benjamin; Oishi, Jeffrey S.; Anders, Evan H.; Lecoanet, Daniel; Burns, Keaton; Vasil, Geoffrey M.

    2017-08-01

    At the base of the solar convection zone lies the solar tachocline. This internal interface is where motions from the unstable convection zone above overshoot and penetrate downward into the stiffly stable radiative zone below, driving gravity waves, mixing, and possibly pumping and storing magnetic fields. Here we study the dynamics of convective overshoot across very stiff interfaces with some properties similar to the internal boundary layer within the Sun. We use the Dedalus pseudospectral framework and study fully compressible dynamics at moderate to high Peclet number and low Mach number, probing a regime where turbulent transport is important, and where the compressible dynamics are similar to those of convective motions in the deep solar interior. We find that the depth of convective overshoot is well described by a simple buoyancy equilibration model, and we consider implications for dynamics at the solar tachocline and for the storage of magnetic fields there by overshooting convection.

  6. The convection electric field in auroral substorms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerløv, Jesper Wittendorff; Hoffman, R.A.

    2001-01-01

    Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) electric field and ion drift data are used in a statistical study of the ionospheric convection electric field in bulge-type auroral substorms. Thirty-one individual DE 2 substorm crossings were carefully selected and organized by the use of global auroral images obtained...... this database enabled us to compile a model of the ionospheric convection electric field. The characteristics of the premidnight convection reversal show a pronounced local time dependency. Far west of the surge it is a fairly well defined point reversal or convection shear. Approaching the surge and within...... the surge it is a region of weak electric fields increasing in width toward midnight that separates regions of equatorward and poleward electric fields. Therefore we adopt the term Harang region rather than the Harang discontinuity for the premidnight convection reversal. A relatively narrow convection...

  7. The pattern of convection in the Sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, N.O.

    1976-01-01

    The structure of solar magnetic fields is dominated by the effects of convection, which should be incorporated in any model of the solar cycle. Although mixing length theory is adequate for calculating the structure of main sequence stars, a better description of convection is needed for any detailed dynamo model. Recent work on nonlinear convection at low Prandt numbers is reviewed. There has been some progress towards a theory of compressible convection, though there is still no firm theoretical evidence for cells with scales less than the depth of the convecting layer. However, it remains likely that the pattern of solar convection is dominated by granules, supergranules and giant cells. The effects of rotation on these cells are briefly considered. (Auth.)

  8. Seasonal variations of the high-latitude F region for

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sojka, J.J.; Schunk, R.W.; Raitt, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    We combined a plasma convection model with an inosphere-atmospheric composition model in order to study the seasonal variations of the high-latitude F region for strong convection. Our numerical study produced time-dependent, three-dimensional, ion density distributions for the ions NO + , O 2 + , N 2 + , O + , N + , and He + . We covered the high-latitude ionosphere above 42 0 N magnetic latitude and at altitudes between 160 and 800 km for a time period of one complete day. From our study we found the following: (1) For strong convection, the high-altitude ionosphere exhibits a significant UT variation both during winter and summer. (2) In general, the electron density is lower in winter than in summer. However, at certain universal times the electron density in the dayside polar cap is larger in winter than in summer owing to the effect of the mid-latitude 'winter anomaly' in combination with strong antisunward convection. (3) In both summer and winter, the major region of low electron density is associated with the main or mid-latitudde trough. The trough is deeper and its local time extend is much greater in winter than in summer. (4) Typically, the electron density exhibits a much larger variation with altitude in winter than in summer. (5) The ion composition and molecular/atomic ion transition altitude are highly UT dependent in both summer and winter. (6) The ion composition also displays a significant seasonal variation. However, at a given location the seasonal variation can be opposite at different universal times. (7) High-speed convection cells should display a marked seasonal variation, with a much larger concentration of molecular ions near the F region peak in summer than in winter

  9. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  10. Titan Balloon Convection Model, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This innovative research effort is directed at determining, quantitatively, the convective heat transfer coefficients applicable to a Montgolfiere balloon operating...

  11. REVERSALS IN THE 6-CELLS CONVECTION DRIVEN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.M. Vodinchar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We describe the large-scale model geodynamo, which based on indirect data of inhomogeneities in the density of the Earth’s core. Convection structure is associated with spherical harmonic Y24 , which defines the basic poloidal component of velocity. Coriolis drift of this mode determines the toroidal component of velocity. Thus, 6 convective cells are formed. The model takes into account the feedback effect of the magnetic field on convection. It was ascertained that the model contains stable regimes of field generation. The velocity of convection and the dipole component of the magnetic field are close to the observed ones.

  12. The super greenhouse effect in a warming world: the role of dynamics and thermodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashinath, Karthik; O'Brien, Travis; Collins, William

    2016-04-01

    Over warm tropical oceans the increase in greenhouse trapping with increasing SST can be faster than that of the surface emission, resulting in a decrease in clear sky outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (OLR) when SST increases, also known as the super greenhouse effect (SGE). If the SGE is directly linked to SST changes, there are profound implications for positive climate feedbacks in the tropics. We show that CMIP5 models perform well in simulating the observed clear-sky greenhouse effect in the present day. Using global warming experiments we show that the onset and shutdown SST of the SGE, as well as the magnitude of the SGE, increase as the convective threshold SST increases. To account for an increasing convective threshold SST we use an invariant coordinate for convection proposed in a recent study [Williams et al., GRL (2009)]. However, even after accounting for the increase in tropical SST (by normalizing the SGE by surface emission) and accounting for the increase in the threshold temperature for convection (by using the invariant coordinate) we find that the models predict a distinct increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect in a warmed world. This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e. SST) plays a crucial role in regulating the increasing clear sky greenhouse effect in a warming world. We use theoretical arguments to estimate this increase in SGE and derive its dependence on SST. Finally, as shown in previous studies, we confirm that the increase in the clear-sky greenhouse effect is primarily due to upper tropospheric moistening. Although the absolute increase in upper tropospheric water vapor is small compared to that of the lower troposphere, since the absorptivity scales with fractional changes in water vapor, the contribution of the upper troposphere is more significant, as shown by Chung et al., PNAS (2014).

  13. Scale analysis of convective clouds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micha Gryschka

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The size distribution of cumulus clouds due to shallow and deep convection is analyzed using satellite pictures, LES model results and data from the German rain radar network. The size distributions found can be described by simple power laws as has also been proposed for other cloud data in the literature. As the observed precipitation at ground stations is finally determined by cloud numbers in an area and individual sizes and rain rates of single clouds, the cloud size distributions might be used for developing empirical precipitation forecasts or for validating results from cloud resolving models being introduced to routine weather forecasts.

  14. Characterizing Convection in Stellar Atmospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanner, Joel; Basu, Sarbani; Demarque, Pierre; Robinson, Frank

    2011-01-01

    We perform 3D radiative hydrodynamic simulations to study the properties of convection in the superadiabatic layer of stars. The simulations show differences in both the stratification and turbulent quantities for different types of stars. We extract turbulent pressure and eddy sizes, as well as the T-τ relation for different stars and find that they are sensitive to the energy flux and gravity. We also show that contrary to what is usually assumed in the field of stellar atmospheres, the structure and gas dynamics of simulations of turbulent atmospheres cannot be parameterized with T eff and log(g) alone.

  15. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  16. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  17. Responses of Ecosystem CO2 Fluxes to Short-Term Experimental Warming and Nitrogen Enrichment in an Alpine Meadow, Northern Tibet Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Peili; Jiang, Jing; Song, Minghua; Xiong, Dingpeng; Ma, Weiling; Fu, Gang; Zhang, Xianzhou; Shen, Zhenxi

    2013-01-01

    Over the past decades, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced pronounced warming, yet the extent to which warming will affect alpine ecosystems depends on how warming interacts with other influential global change factors, such as nitrogen (N) deposition. A long-term warming and N manipulation experiment was established to investigate the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on alpine meadow. Open-top chambers were used to simulate warming. N addition, warming, N addition × warming, and a control were set up. In OTCs, daytime air and soil temperature were warmed by 2.0°C and 1.6°C above ambient conditions, but soil moisture was decreased by 4.95 m3 m−3. N addition enhanced ecosystem respiration (Reco); nevertheless, warming significantly decreased Reco. The decline of Reco resulting from warming was cancelled out by N addition in late growing season. Our results suggested that N addition enhanced Reco by increasing soil N availability and plant production, whereas warming decreased Reco through lowering soil moisture, soil N supply potential, and suppression of plant activity. Furthermore, season-specific responses of Reco indicated that warming and N deposition caused by future global change may have complicated influence on carbon cycles in alpine ecosystems. PMID:24459432

  18. Impact of geographic variations of the convective and dehydration center on stratospheric water vapor over the Asian monsoon region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Asian monsoon region is the most prominent moisture center of water vapor in the lower stratosphere (LS during boreal summer. Previous studies have suggested that the transport of water vapor to the Asian monsoon LS is controlled by dehydration temperatures and convection mainly over the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia. However, there is a clear geographic variation of convection associated with the seasonal and intra-seasonal variations of the Asian monsoon circulation, and the relative influence of such a geographic variation of convection vs. the variation of local dehydration temperatures on water vapor transport is still not clear. Using satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS and a domain-filling forward trajectory model, we show that almost half of the seasonal water vapor increase in the Asian monsoon LS are attributable to geographic variations of convection and resultant variations of the dehydration center, of which the influence is comparable to the influence of the local dehydration temperature increase. In particular, dehydration temperatures are coldest over the southeast and warmest over the northwest Asian monsoon region. Although the convective center is located over Southeast Asia, an anomalous increase of convection over the northwest Asia monsoon region increases local diabatic heating in the tropopause layer and air masses entering the LS are dehydrated at relatively warmer temperatures. Due to warmer dehydration temperatures, anomalously moist air enters the LS and moves eastward along the northern flank of the monsoon anticyclonic flow, leading to wet anomalies in the LS over the Asian monsoon region. Likewise, when convection increases over the Southeast Asia monsoon region, dry anomalies appear in the LS. On a seasonal scale, this feature is associated with the monsoon circulation, convection and diabatic heating marching towards the northwest Asia monsoon region from June to August. The

  19. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    OpenAIRE

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-01-01

    Background Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises...

  20. A New Model Hierarchy to Understand the Impact of Radiation and Convection on the Extratropical Circulation Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Shaw, T.

    2017-12-01

    State-of-the-art climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward jet shift and Hadley cell expansion in response to warming. Interestingly, some idealized gray radiation models with simplified convective schemes produce an equatorward jet shift in response to warming. In order to understand the impact of radiation and convection on the circulation response and resolve the discrepancies across the model hierarchy, we introduce a new model radiation-convection hierarchy. The hierarchy spans idealized (gray) through sophisticated (RRTMG) radiation, and idealized (Betts-Miller) through sophisticated (eddy-diffusivity mass-flux scheme) convection schemes in the same general circulation model. It is used to systematically explore the impact of radiation and convection on the extratropical circulation response to climate change independent of mean surface temperature and meridional temperature gradient responses. With a gray radiation scheme, the jet stream shift depends on the prescribed stratospheric optical depth, which controls the climatological jet regime. A large optical depth leads to a split jet and an equatorward shift. A small optical depth leads to a poleward shift. The different shifts are connected to the vertical extent of tropical long wave cooling that impacts the subtropical jet and Hadley circulation. In spite of these sensitivities, the storm track position, defined by the meridonal eddy heat flux and moist static energy flux maxima, shifts robustly poleward. In contrast to gray radiation, with a comprehensive radiation scheme, the jet and storm track shift robustly poleward irrespective of radiative assumptions (clear sky versus cloudy sky, ozone versus no ozone). This response is reproduced by adding more spectral bands and including the water vapor feedback in the gray scheme. Dynamical sensitivities to convective assumption are also explored. Overall the new hierarchy highlights the importance of radiative and

  1. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

  2. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  3. Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, T.; Myneni, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

  4. Two-dimensional turbulent convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzino, Andrea

    2017-11-01

    We present an overview of the most relevant, and sometimes contrasting, theoretical approaches to Rayleigh-Taylor and mean-gradient-forced Rayleigh-Bénard two-dimensional turbulence together with numerical and experimental evidences for their support. The main aim of this overview is to emphasize that, despite the different character of these two systems, especially in relation to their steadiness/unsteadiness, turbulent fluctuations are well described by the same scaling relationships originated from the Bolgiano balance. The latter states that inertial terms and buoyancy terms balance at small scales giving rise to an inverse kinetic energy cascade. The main difference with respect to the inverse energy cascade in hydrodynamic turbulence [R. H. Kraichnan, "Inertial ranges in two-dimensional turbulence," Phys. Fluids 10, 1417 (1967)] is that the rate of cascade of kinetic energy here is not constant along the inertial range of scales. Thanks to the absence of physical boundaries, the two systems here investigated turned out to be a natural physical realization of the Kraichnan scaling regime hitherto associated with the elusive "ultimate state of thermal convection" [R. H. Kraichnan, "Turbulent thermal convection at arbitrary Prandtl number," Phys. Fluids 5, 1374-1389 (1962)].

  5. Fewer bacteria in warm water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagh, Lene

    1999-01-01

    There has been many suggestions to how the ideal warm water system should be. Particularly whether warm water containers or heat exchangers in larger houses are the best solutions in order to maintain a water quality with low levels of bacteria. In an investigation made by Statens Byggeforskningsinstitutt (Denmark) regarding ''Bacterial growth in warm water installations with heat exchangers'' there were used several heat exchangers made by Gjelsted and Lund of three of which had HWAT heating cables. The bacterial content was low from these exchangers compared to exchangers with circulation. The article presents promising results from a study where the method was investigated over a longer period in two new larger warm water systems. Some energy conservation aspects are discussed

  6. Warm mix asphalt : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The performance of pavements constructed using warm mix asphalt (WMA) technology were : compared to the performance of conventional hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavements placed on the : same project. Measurements of friction resistance, rutting/wear, ride ...

  7. Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1988-09-01

    Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

  8. Changes in the seasonality of Arctic sea ice and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bintanja, R.

    2012-04-01

    Observations show that the Arctic sea ice cover is currently declining as a result of climate warming. According to climate models, this retreat will continue and possibly accelerate in the near-future. However, the magnitude of this decline is not the same throughout the year. With temperatures near or above the freezing point, summertime Arctic sea ice will quickly diminish. However, at temperatures well below freezing, the sea ice cover during winter will exhibit a much weaker decline. In the future, the sea ice seasonal cycle will be no ice in summer, and thin one-year ice in winter. Hence, the seasonal cycle in sea ice cover will increase with ongoing climate warming. This in itself leads to an increased summer-winter contrast in surface air temperature, because changes in sea ice have a dominant influence on Arctic temperature and its seasonality. Currently, the annual amplitude in air temperature is decreasing, however, because winters warm faster than summer. With ongoing summer sea ice reductions there will come a time when the annual temperature amplitude will increase again because of the large seasonal changes in sea ice. This suggests that changes in the seasonal cycle in Arctic sea ice and temperature are closely, and intricately, connected. Future changes in Arctic seasonality (will) have an profound effect on flora, fauna, humans and economic activities.

  9. Global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    The problems of pollution, global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation, and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy, pollution and global warming crisis. (author)

  10. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  11. Benard convection in gaps and cavities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, U.

    1981-04-01

    The article contains two parts. In the first part a condensed review of the most striking phenomena in Benard convection in laterally confined fluid layers is given. In the second part recent experimental and theoretical work on Benard convection in gaps is presented an analysed. (orig.) [de

  12. Convective mixing and accretion in white dwarfs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koester, D.

    1976-01-01

    The evolution of convection zones in cooling white dwarfs with helium envelopes and outer hydrogen layers is calculated with a complete stellar evolution code. It is shown that white dwarfs of spectral type DB cannot be formed from DA stars by convective mixing. However, for cooler temperatures (Tsub(e) [de

  13. A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, H.M.; Sampath, R.; Riha, S.J.; Wilks, D.S.; Rossiter, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    The potential economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming are examined at the farm level. Three models of the relevant climatic, agronomic, and economic processes are developed and linked to address climate change impacts and agricultural adaptability. Several climate warming severity. The results indicate that grain farmers in southern Minnesota can effectively adapt to a gradually changing climate (warmer and either wetter or drier) by adopting later maturing cultivars, changing crop mix, and altering the timing of field operations to take advantage of a longer growing season resulting from climate warming

  14. The boundary layer moist static energy budget: Convection picks up moisture and leaves footprints in the marine boundary layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Szoeke, S. P.

    2017-12-01

    Averaged over the tropical marine boundary layer (BL), 130 W m-2 turbulent surface moist static energy (MSE) flux, 120 W m-2 of which is evaporation, is balanced by upward MSE flux at the BL top due to 1) incorporation of cold air by downdrafts from deep convective clouds, and 2) turbulent entrainment of dry air into the BL. Cold saturated downdraft air, and warm clear air entrained into the BL have distinct thermodynamic properties. This work observationally quantifies their respective MSE fluxes in the central Indian Ocean in 2011, under different convective conditions of the intraseasonal (40-90 day) Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). Under convectively suppressed conditions, entrainment and downdraft fluxes export equal shares (60 W m-2) of MSE from the BL. Downdraft fluxes are more variable, increasing for stronger convection. In the convectively active phase of the MJO, downdrafts export 90 W m-2 from the BL, compared to 40 W m-2 by entrainment. These processes that control the internal, latent (condensation), and MSE of the tropical marine atmospheric BL determine the parcel buoyancy and strength of tropical deep convection.

  15. Aerosol Indirect Effect on Warm Clouds over Eastern China Using Combined CALIOP and MODIS Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Wang, Fu; Huang, Jingfeng; Li, Xiaowen

    2015-04-01

    Aerosol, one of key components of the climate system, is highly variable, both temporally and spatially. It often exerts great influences on the cloud-precipitation chain processes by serving as CCN/IN, altering cloud microphysics and its life cycle. Yet, the aerosol indirect effect on clouds remains largely unknown, because the initial changes in clouds due to aerosols may be enhanced or dampened by such feedback processes as modified cloud dynamics, or evaporation of the smaller droplets due to the competition for water vapor. In this study, we attempted to quantify the aerosol effects on warm cloud over eastern China, based on near-simultaneous retrievals from MODIS/AQUA, CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CLOUDSAT during the period 2006 to 2010. The seasonality of aerosol from ground-based PM10 is quite different from that estimated from MODIS AOD. This result is corroborated by lower level profile of aerosol occurrence frequency from CALIOP, indicating the significant role CALIOP could play in aerosol-cloud interaction. The combined use of CALIOP and CPR facilitate the process to exactly determine the (vertical) position of warm cloud relative to aerosol, out of six scenarios in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status in terms of aerosol-cloud mixing status, which shows as follows: AO (Aerosol only), CO (Cloud only), SASC (Single aerosol-single cloud), SADC (single aerosol-double cloud), DASC (double aerosol-single cloud), and others. Results shows that about 54% of all the cases belong to mixed status, among all the collocated aerosol-cloud cases. Under mixed condition, a boomerang shape is observed, i.e., reduced cloud droplet radius (CDR) is associated with increasing aerosol at moderate aerosol pollution (AODcases. We categorize dataset into warm-season and cold-season subsets to figure out how the boomerang shape varies with season. For moderate aerosol loading (AODMixed" cases is greater during cold season (denoted by a large slope), as compared with that during warm

  16. Topology Optimisation for Coupled Convection Problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alexandersen, Joe

    This thesis deals with topology optimisation for coupled convection problems. The aim is to extend and apply topology optimisation to steady-state conjugate heat transfer problems, where the heat conduction equation governs the heat transfer in a solid and is coupled to thermal transport...... in a surrounding uid, governed by a convection-diffusion equation, where the convective velocity field is found from solving the isothermal incompressible steady-state Navier-Stokes equations. Topology optimisation is also applied to steady-state natural convection problems. The modelling is done using stabilised...... finite elements, the formulation and implementation of which was done partly during a special course as prepatory work for this thesis. The formulation is extended with a Brinkman friction term in order to facilitate the topology optimisation of fluid flow and convective cooling problems. The derived...

  17. Convective penetration in a young sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Jane; Baraffe, Isabelle; Goffrey, Tom; MUSIC developers group

    2018-01-01

    To interpret the high-quality data produced from recent space-missions it is necessary to study convection under realistic stellar conditions. We describe the multi-dimensional, time implicit, fully compressible, hydrodynamic, implicit large eddy simulation code MUSIC. We use MUSIC to study convection during an early stage in the evolution of our sun where the convection zone covers approximately half of the solar radius. This model of the young sun possesses a realistic stratification in density, temperature, and luminosity. We approach convection in a stellar context using extreme value theory and derive a new model for convective penetration, targeted for one-dimensional stellar evolution calculations. This model provides a scenario that can explain the observed lithium abundance in the sun and in solar-like stars at a range of ages.

  18. Numerical simulations of convectively excited gravity waves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glatzmaier, G.A.

    1983-01-01

    Magneto-convection and gravity waves are numerically simulated with a nonlinear, three-dimensional, time-dependent model of a stratified, rotating, spherical fluid shell heated from below. A Solar-like reference state is specified while global velocity, magnetic field, and thermodynamic perturbations are computed from the anelastic magnetohydrodynamic equations. Convective overshooting from the upper (superadiabatic) part of the shell excites gravity waves in the lower (subadiabatic) part. Due to differential rotation and Coriolis forces, convective cell patterns propagate eastward with a latitudinally dependent phase velocity. The structure of the excited wave motions in the stable region is more time-dependent than that of the convective motions above. The magnetic field tends to be concentrated over giant-cell downdrafts in the convective zone but is affected very little by the wave motion in the stable region

  19. Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2018-03-01

    As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

  20. The Role of Frozen Soil in Groundwater Discharge Predictions for Warming Alpine Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

    2018-03-01

    Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2-D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt-dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite-derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

  1. The role of frozen soil in groundwater discharge predictions for warming alpine watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Sarah G.; Ge, Shemin; Voss, Clifford I.; Molotch, Noah P.

    2018-01-01

    Climate warming may alter the quantity and timing of groundwater discharge to streams in high alpine watersheds due to changes in the timing of the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface and snowmelt recharge. It is imperative to understand the effects of seasonal freezing and recharge on groundwater discharge to streams in warming alpine watersheds as streamflow originating from these watersheds is a critical water resource for downstream users. This study evaluates how climate warming may alter groundwater discharge due to changes in seasonally frozen ground and snowmelt using a 2‐D coupled flow and heat transport model with freeze and thaw capabilities for variably saturated media. The model is applied to a representative snowmelt‐dominated watershed in the Rocky Mountains of central Colorado, USA, with snowmelt time series reconstructed from a 12 year data set of hydrometeorological records and satellite‐derived snow covered area. Model analyses indicate that the duration of seasonal freezing in the subsurface controls groundwater discharge to streams, while snowmelt timing controls groundwater discharge to hillslope faces. Climate warming causes changes to subsurface ice content and duration, rerouting groundwater flow paths but not altering the total magnitude of future groundwater discharge outside of the bounds of hydrologic parameter uncertainties. These findings suggest that frozen soil routines play an important role for predicting the future location of groundwater discharge in watersheds underlain by seasonally frozen ground.

  2. Snow precipitation on Mars driven by cloud-induced night-time convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Hinson, David P.; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Navarro, Thomas; Millour, Ehouarn; Forget, François; Montmessin, Franck

    2017-09-01

    Although it contains less water vapour than Earth's atmosphere, the Martian atmosphere hosts clouds. These clouds, composed of water-ice particles, influence the global transport of water vapour and the seasonal variations of ice deposits. However, the influence of water-ice clouds on local weather is unclear: it is thought that Martian clouds are devoid of moist convective motions, and snow precipitation occurs only by the slow sedimentation of individual particles. Here we present numerical simulations of the meteorology in Martian cloudy regions that demonstrate that localized convective snowstorms can occur on Mars. We show that such snowstorms--or ice microbursts--can explain deep night-time mixing layers detected from orbit and precipitation signatures detected below water-ice clouds by the Phoenix lander. In our simulations, convective snowstorms occur only during the Martian night, and result from atmospheric instability due to radiative cooling of water-ice cloud particles. This triggers strong convective plumes within and below clouds, with fast snow precipitation resulting from the vigorous descending currents. Night-time convection in Martian water-ice clouds and the associated snow precipitation lead to transport of water both above and below the mixing layers, and thus would affect Mars' water cycle past and present, especially under the high-obliquity conditions associated with a more intense water cycle.

  3. Magnetic Fields in the Solar Convection Zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fan Yuhong

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies of the dynamic evolution of magnetic flux tubes in the solar convection zone are reviewed with focus on emerging flux tubes responsible for the formation of solar active regions. The current prevailing picture is that active regions on the solar surface originate from strong toroidal magnetic fields generated by the solar dynamo mechanism at the thin tachocline layer at the base of the solar convection zone. Thus the magnetic fields need to traverse the entire convection zone before they reach the photosphere to form the observed solar active regions. This review discusses results with regard to the following major topics: 1. the equilibrium properties of the toroidal magnetic fields stored in the stable overshoot region at the base of the convection zone, 2. the buoyancy instability associated with the toroidal magnetic fields and the formation of buoyant magnetic flux tubes, 3. the rise of emerging flux loops through the solar convective envelope as modeled by the thin flux tube calculations which infer that the field strength of the toroidal magnetic fields at the base of the solar convection zone is significantly higher than the value in equipartition with convection, 4. the minimum twist needed for maintaining cohesion of the rising flux tubes, 5. the rise of highly twisted kink unstable flux tubes as a possible origin of d -sunspots, 6. the evolution of buoyant magnetic flux tubes in 3D stratified convection, 7. turbulent pumping of magnetic flux by penetrative compressible convection, 8. an alternative mechanism for intensifying toroidal magnetic fields to significantly super-equipartition field strengths by conversion of the potential energy associated with the superadiabatic stratification of the solar convection zone, and finally 9. a brief overview of our current understanding of flux emergence at the surface and post-emergence evolution of the subsurface magnetic fields.

  4. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  5. Convective Transport of Very-short-lived Bromocarbons to the Stratosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Qing; Atlas, Elliot Leonard; Blake, Donald Ray; Dorf, Marcel; Pfeilsticker, Klaus August; Schauffler, Sue Myhre

    2014-01-01

    We use the NASA GEOS Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) to quantify the contribution of two most important brominated very short-lived substances (VSLS), bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), to stratospheric bromine and its sensitivity to convection strength. Model simulations suggest that the most active transport of VSLS from the marine boundary layer through the tropopause occurs over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Western Pacific warm pool, and off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Together, convective lofting of CHBr3 and CH2Br2 and their degradation products supplies 8 ppt total bromine to the base of the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL, 150 hPa), similar to the amount of VSLS organic bromine available in the marine boundary layer (7.8-8.4 ppt) in the above active convective lofting regions. Of the total 8 ppt VSLS-originated bromine that enters the base of TTL at 150 hPa, half is in the form of source gas injection (SGI) and half as product gas injection (PGI). Only a small portion (Br2, together, contribute 7.7 pptv to the present-day inorganic bromine in the stratosphere. However, varying model deep convection strength between maximum and minimum convection conditions can introduce a 2.6 pptv uncertainty in the contribution of VSLS to inorganic bromine in the stratosphere (BryVSLS). Contrary to the conventional wisdom, minimum convection condition leads to a larger BryVSLS as the reduced scavenging in soluble product gases, thus a significant increase in PGI (2-3 ppt), greatly exceeds the relative minor decrease in SGI (a few 10ths ppt.

  6. Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong; Li, Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Aerosols are a critical.factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosols have a major impact on the dynamics, microphysics, and electrification properties of continental mixed-phase convective clouds. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Such pollution . effects on precipitation potentially have enormous climatic consequences both in terms of feedbacks involving the land surface via rainfall as well as the surface energy budget and changes in latent heat input to the atmosphere. Basically, aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, the warm-rain process, the cold-rain process, cloud-top heights, the depth of the mixed-phase region, and the occurrence of lightning. Recently, many cloud resolution models (CRMs) have been used to examine the role of aerosols on mixed-phase convective clouds. These modeling studies have many differences in terms of model configuration (two- or three-dimensional), domain size, grid spacing (150-3000 m), microphysics (two-moment bulk, simple or sophisticated spectral-bin), turbulence (1st or 1.5 order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)), radiation, lateral boundary conditions (i.e., closed, radiative open or cyclic), cases (isolated convection, tropical or midlatitude squall lines) and model integration time (e.g., 2.5 to 48 hours). Among these modeling studies, the most striking difference is that cumulative precipitation can either increase or decrease in response to higher concentrations of CCN. In this presentation, we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics

  7. Actively convected liquid metal divertor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Michiya; Hirooka, Yoshi

    2014-01-01

    The use of actively convected liquid metals with j × B force is proposed to facilitate heat handling by the divertor, a challenging issue associated with magnetic fusion experiments such as ITER. This issue will be aggravated even more for DEMO and power reactors because the divertor heat load will be significantly higher and yet the use of copper would not be allowed as the heat sink material. Instead, reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel alloys with heat conductivities substantially lower than that of copper, will be used as the structural materials. The present proposal is to fill the lower part of the vacuum vessel with liquid metals with relatively low melting points and low chemical activities including Ga and Sn. The divertor modules, equipped with electrodes and cooling tubes, are immersed in the liquid metal. The electrode, placed in the middle of the liquid metal, can be biased positively or negatively with respect to the module. The j × B force due to the current between the electrode and the module provides a rotating motion for the liquid metal around the electrodes. The rise in liquid temperature at the separatrix hit point can be maintained at acceptable levels from the operation point of view. As the rotation speed increases, the current in the liquid metal is expected to decrease due to the v × B electromotive force. This rotating motion in the poloidal plane will reduce the divertor heat load significantly. Another important benefit of the convected liquid metal divertor is the fast recovery from unmitigated disruptions. Also, the liquid metal divertor concept eliminates the erosion problem. (letter)

  8. The Great Warming Brian Fagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, B. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

  9. Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

    2011-01-01

    This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

  10. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  11. Two cold-season derechoes in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatzen, Christoph; Púčik, Tomas; Ryva, David

    2011-06-01

    In this study, we apply for the first time the definition of a derecho (Johns and Hirt, 1987) to European cold-season convective storm systems. These occurred on 18 January 2007 and 1 March 2008, respectively, and they are shown to fulfill the criteria of a derecho. Damaging winds were reported over a distance of 1500 km and locally reached F3 intensity. Synoptic analysis for the events reveal strongly forced situations that have been described for cold-season derechoes in the United States. A comparison of swaths of damaging winds, radar structures, detected lightning, cold pool development, and cloud-top temperatures indicates that both derechoes formed along cold fronts that were affected by strong quasi-geostrophic forcing. It seems that the overlap of the cold front position with the strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection at the cyclonic flank of mid-level jet streaks favoured intense convection and high winds. The movement and path width of the two derechoes seemed to be related to this overlap. The wind gust intensity that was also different for both events is discussed and could be related to the component of the mid-level winds perpendicular to the gust fronts.

  12. Use of Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of Convective Heat Transfer in Evaporative Units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romero-Méndez Ricardo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Convective heat transfer prediction of evaporative processes is more complicated than the heat transfer prediction of single-phase convective processes. This is due to the fact that physical phenomena involved in evaporative processes are very complex and vary with the vapor quality that increases gradually as more fluid is evaporated. Power-law correlations used for prediction of evaporative convection have proved little accuracy when used in practical cases. In this investigation, neural-network-based models have been used as a tool for prediction of the thermal performance of evaporative units. For this purpose, experimental data were obtained in a facility that includes a counter-flow concentric pipes heat exchanger with R134a refrigerant flowing inside the circular section and temperature controlled warm water moving through the annular section. This work also included the construction of an inverse Rankine refrigeration cycle that was equipped with measurement devices, sensors and a data acquisition system to collect the experimental measurements under different operating conditions. Part of the data were used to train several neural-network configurations. The best neural-network model was then used for prediction purposes and the results obtained were compared with experimental data not used for training purposes. The results obtained in this investigation reveal the convenience of using artificial neural networks as accurate predictive tools for determining convective heat transfer rates of evaporative processes.

  13. Intraseasonal variability of organized convective systems in the Central Andes: Relationship to Regional Dynamical Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohr, K. I.; Slayback, D. A.; Nicholls, S.; Yager, K.

    2013-12-01

    The Andes extend from the west coast of Colombia (10N) to the southern tip of Chile (53S). In southern Peru and Bolivia, the Central Andes is split into separate eastern and western cordilleras, with a high plateau (≥ 3000 m), the Altiplano, between them. Because 90% of the Earth's tropical mountain glaciers are located in the Central Andes, our study focuses on this region, defining its zonal extent as 7S-21S and the meridional extent as the terrain 1000 m and greater. Although intense convection occurs during the wet season in the Altiplano, it is not included in the lists of regions with frequent or the most intense convection. The scarcity of in-situ observations with sufficient density and temporal resolution to resolve individual storms or even mesoscale-organized cloud systems and documented biases in microwave-based rainfall products in poorly gauged mountainous regions have impeded the development of an extensive literature on convection and convective systems in this region. With the tropical glaciers receding at unprecedented rates, leaving seasonal precipitation as an increasingly important input to the water balance in alpine valley ecosystems and streams, understanding the nature and characteristics of the seasonal precipitation becomes increasingly important for the rural economies in this region. Previous work in analyzing precipitation in the Central Andes has emphasized interannual variability with respect to ENSO, this is the first study to focus on shorter scale variability with respect to organized convection. The present study took advantage of the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database compiled from 14 years of TRMM observations (1998-2012), supplemented by field observations of rainfall and streamflow, historical gauge data, and long-term WRF-simulations, to analyze the intraseasonal variability of precipitating systems and their relationship regional dynamical features such as the Bolivian High. Through time series and

  14. A thermodynamically general theory for convective vortices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renno, Nilton O.

    2008-08-01

    Convective vortices are common features of atmospheres that absorb lower-entropy-energy at higher temperatures than they reject higher-entropy-energy to space. These vortices range from small to large-scale and play an important role in the vertical transport of heat, momentum, and tracer species. Thus, the development of theoretical models for convective vortices is important to our understanding of some of the basic features of planetary atmospheres. The heat engine framework is a useful tool for studying convective vortices. However, current theories assume that convective vortices are reversible heat engines. Since there are questions about how reversible real atmospheric heat engines are, their usefulness for studying real atmospheric vortices is somewhat controversial. In order to reduce this problem, a theory for convective vortices that includes irreversible processes is proposed. The paper's main result is that the proposed theory provides an expression for the pressure drop along streamlines that includes the effects of irreversible processes. It is shown that a simplified version of this expression is a generalization of Bernoulli's equation to convective circulations. It is speculated that the proposed theory not only explains the intensity, but also sheds light on other basic features of convective vortices such as their physical appearance.

  15. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  16. Global warming: it's not only size that matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegerl, Gabriele C.

    2011-09-01

    impacts than temperatures that have occurred frequently due to internal climate variability. Determining when exactly temperatures enter unusual ranges may be done in many different ways (and the paper shows several, and more could be imagined), but the main result of first local emergence in low latitudes remains robust. A worrying factor is that the regions where the signal is expected to emerge first, or is already emerging are largely regions in Africa, parts of South and Central America, and the Maritime Continent; regions that are vulnerable to climate change for a variety of regions (see IPCC 2007), and regions which contribute generally little to global greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, strong emissions of greenhouse gases occur in regions of low warming-to-variability ratio. To get even closer to the relevance of this finding for impacts, it would be interesting to place the emergence of highly unusual summer temperatures in the context not of internal variability, but in the context of variability experienced by the climate system prior to the 20th century, as, e.g. documented in palaeoclimatic reconstructions and simulated in simulations of the last millennium (see Jansen et al 2007). External forcing has moved the temperature range around more strongly for some regions and in some seasons than others. For example, while reconstructions of summer temperatures in Europe appear to show small long-term variations, winter shows deep drops in temperature in the little Ice Age and a long-term increase since then (Luterbacher et al 2004), which was at least partly caused by external forcing (Hegerl et al 2011a) and therefore 'natural variability' may be different from internal variability. A further interesting question in attempts to provide a climate-based proxy for impacts of climate change is: to what extent does the rapidity of change matter, and how does it compare to trends due to natural variability? It is reasonable to assume that fast changes impact

  17. Boundary Layer Control of Rotating Convection Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, E. M.; Stellmach, S.; Noir, J.; Hansen, U.; Aurnou, J. M.

    2008-12-01

    Rotating convection is ubiquitous in the natural universe, and is likely responsible for planetary processes such magnetic field generation. Rapidly rotating convection is typically organized by the Coriolis force into tall, thin, coherent convection columns which are aligned with the axis of rotation. This organizational effect of rotation is thought to be responsible for the strength and structure of magnetic fields generated by convecting planetary interiors. As thermal forcing is increased, the relative influence of rotation weakens, and fully three-dimensional convection can exist. It has long been assumed that rotational effects will dominate convection dynamics when the ratio of buoyancy to the Coriolis force, the convective Rossby number, Roc, is less than unity. We investigate the influence of rotation on turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection via a suite of coupled laboratory and numerical experiments over a broad parameter range: Rayleigh number, 10310; Ekman number, 10-6≤ E ≤ ∞; and Prandtl number, 1≤ Pr ≤ 100. In particular, we measure heat transfer (as characterized by the Nusselt number, Nu) as a function of the Rayleigh number for several different Ekman and Prandtl numbers. Two distinct heat transfer scaling regimes are identified: non-rotating style heat transfer, Nu ~ Ra2/7, and quasigeostrophic style heat transfer, Nu~ Ra6/5. The transition between the non-rotating regime and the rotationally dominant regime is described as a function of the Ekman number, E. We show that the regime transition depends not on the global force balance Roc, but on the relative thicknesses of the thermal and Ekman boundary layers. The transition scaling provides a predictive criterion for the applicability of convection models to natural systems such as Earth's core.

  18. Warm measurements of CBA superconducting magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelmann, R.; Herrera, J.; Kahn, S.; Kirk, H.; Willen, E.; Yamin, P.

    1983-01-01

    We present results on magnetic field measurements of CBA dipole magnets in the warm (normal conductor) and cryogenic (superconducting) states. We apply two methods for the warm measurements, a dc and ac method. We find a good correlation between warm and cryogenic measurements which lends itself to a reliable diagnosis of magnet field errors using warm measurements early in the magnet assembly process. We further find good agreement between the two warm measurement methods, both done at low currents

  19. Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Martusa, Riki

    2009-01-01

    This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

  20. Urban effects on convective precipitation in Mexico city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, Ernesto; Romales, Ernesto

    This paper reports on urban-related convective precipitation anomalies in a tropical city. Wet season (May-October) rainfall for an urban site (Tacubaya) shows a significant trend for the period 1941-1985 suggesting an urban effect that has been increasing as the city grew. On the other hand, rainfall at a suburban (upwind) station apparently unaffected by urbanization, has remained unchanged. Analysis of historical records of hourly precipitation for an urban station shows that the frequency of intense (> 20 mm h -1) rain showers has increased in recent decades. Using a network of automatic rainfall stations, areal distribution of 24 h isoyets show a series of maxima within the urban perimeter which may be associated to the heat island phenomenon. Isochrones of the beginning of rain are used to estimate direction and speed of movement of the rain cloud cells. The daytime heat island seems to be associated with the intensification of rain showers.

  1. Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Close ‹ Back to Healthy Living Sorting Out Seasonal Allergies Sneezing, runny nose, nasal congestion. Symptoms of the ... How do I know if I have seasonal allergies? According to Dr. Georgeson, the best way to ...

  2. Effects of convective ice evaporation on interannual variability of tropical tropopause layer water vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Hao; Dessler, Andrew E.; Yu, Wandi

    2018-04-01

    Water vapor interannual variability in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is investigated using satellite observations and model simulations. We break down the influences of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the tropospheric temperature (ΔT) on TTL water vapor as a function of latitude and longitude using a two-dimensional multivariate linear regression. This allows us to examine the spatial distribution of the impact of each process on TTL water vapor. In agreement with expectations, we find that the impacts from the BDC and QBO act on TTL water vapor by changing TTL temperature. For ΔT, we find that TTL temperatures alone cannot explain the influence. We hypothesize a moistening role for the evaporation of convective ice from increased deep convection as the troposphere warms. Tests using a chemistry-climate model, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM), support this hypothesis.

  3. Initial investigations of microscale cellular convection in an equatorial marine atmospheric boundary layer revealed by lidar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, D. I.; Eichinger, W. E.; Ecke, R. E.; Kao, J. C. Y.; Reisner, J. M.; Tellier, L. L.

    During the Combined Sensor Program (CSP) in March of 1996, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) fielded an advanced scanning Raman lidar. The lidar was part of a larger suite of micrometeorological sensors to quantify processes associated with the ocean-atmosphere interface, including intermittency and coherent atmospheric features in the “warm pool” of the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) near Manus Island (2° S. lat, 147° E. long). Initial inspection of the data has revealed excellent information on the microscale vertical and horizontal spatial and temporal structure of the equatorial Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL). The data from this experiment have added to the increasing body of measurements on surface layer convection and intermittency including, for the first time, the observation of microscale cellular convective structures such as hexagonal patterns associated with Rayleigh-Bénard cells.

  4. Measuring Convective Mass Fluxes Over Tropical Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, David

    2017-04-01

    Deep convection forms the upward branches of all large-scale circulations in the tropics. Understanding what controls the form and intensity of vertical convective mass fluxes is thus key to understanding tropical weather and climate. These mass fluxes and the corresponding conditions supporting them have been measured by recent field programs (TPARC/TCS08, PREDICT, HS3) in tropical disturbances considered to be possible tropical storm precursors. In reality, this encompasses most strong convection in the tropics. The measurements were made with arrays of dropsondes deployed from high altitude. In some cases Doppler radar provided additional measurements. The results are in some ways surprising. Three factors were found to control the mass flux profiles, the strength of total surface heat fluxes, the column-integrated relative humidity, and the low to mid-tropospheric moist convective instability. The first two act as expected, with larger heat fluxes and higher humidity producing more precipitation and stronger lower tropospheric mass fluxes. However, unexpectedly, smaller (but still positive) convective instability produces more precipitation as well as more bottom-heavy convective mass flux profiles. Furthermore, the column humidity and the convective instability are anti-correlated, at least in the presence of strong convection. On spatial scales of a few hundred kilometers, the virtual temperature structure appears to be in dynamic balance with the pattern of potential vorticity. Since potential vorticity typically evolves on longer time scales than convection, the potential vorticity pattern plus the surface heat fluxes then become the immediate controlling factors for average convective properties. All measurements so far have taken place in regions with relatively flat sea surface temperature (SST) distributions. We are currently seeking funding for a measurement program in the tropical east Pacific, a region that exhibits strong SST gradients and

  5. Transient Mixed Convection Validation for NGNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Barton [Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States); Schultz, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-10-19

    The results of this project are best described by the papers and dissertations that resulted from the work. They are included in their entirety in this document. They are: (1) Jeff Harris PhD dissertation (focused mainly on forced convection); (2) Blake Lance PhD dissertation (focused mainly on mixed and transient convection). This dissertation is in multi-paper format and includes the article currently submitted and one to be submitted shortly; and, (3) JFE paper on CFD Validation Benchmark for Forced Convection.

  6. Convective cells and transport in toroidal plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassam, A.B.; Kulsrud, R.M.

    1978-12-01

    The properties of convective cells and the diffusion resulting from such cells are significantly influenced by an inhomogeneity in the extermal confining magnetic field, such as that in toroidal plasmas. The convective diffusion in the presence of a field inhomogeneity is estimated. For a thermal background, this diffusion is shown to be substantially smaller than classical collisional diffusion. For a model nonthermal background, the diffusion is estimated, for typical parameters, to be at most of the order of collisional diffusion. The model background employed is based on spectra observed in numerical simulations of drift-wave-driven convective cells

  7. Transient Mixed Convection Validation for NGNP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Barton; Schultz, Richard

    2015-01-01

    The results of this project are best described by the papers and dissertations that resulted from the work. They are included in their entirety in this document. They are: (1) Jeff Harris PhD dissertation (focused mainly on forced convection); (2) Blake Lance PhD dissertation (focused mainly on mixed and transient convection). This dissertation is in multi-paper format and includes the article currently submitted and one to be submitted shortly; and, (3) JFE paper on CFD Validation Benchmark for Forced Convection.

  8. Numerical Simulations of TRMM LBA, TOGA, COARE, GATE, ARM and PRESTORM Convective Systems: Sensitivity tests on Microphysical Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Wang, Y.; Lang, S.; Ferrier, B.; Simpson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems that occurred over the west Pacific warm pool region, the Atlantic ocean and the central United States. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active periods during TOGA-COARE (February 22 1993, December 11-17, 1992; December 19-28, February 9-13, 1993), GATE (September 4, 1974), LBA (January 26 and February 23, 1998), ARM (1997 IOP) and PRESTORM (June 11, 1985). We will examine differences in the microphysics for both warm rain and ice processes (evaporation /sublimation and condensation/ deposition), Q1 (Temperature), Q2 (Water vapor) and Q3 (momentum both U and V) budgets for these three convective events from different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. New improvements to the GCE model (i.e., microphysics: 4ICE two moments and 3ICE one moment; advection schemes) as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed. Preliminary results indicated that various microphysical schemes could have a major impact on stratiform formation as well as the size of convective systems. However, they do not change the major characteristics of the convective systems, such as: arc shape, strong rotational circulation on both ends of system, heavy precipitation along the leading edge of systems.

  9. Seasonal and latitudinal variations of surface fluxes at two Arctic terrestrial sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grachev, Andrey A.; Persson, P. Ola G.; Uttal, Taneil; Akish, Elena A.; Cox, Christopher J.; Morris, Sara M.; Fairall, Christopher W.; Stone, Robert S.; Lesins, Glen; Makshtas, Alexander P.; Repina, Irina A.

    2017-11-01

    This observational study compares seasonal variations of surface fluxes (turbulent, radiative, and soil heat) and other ancillary atmospheric/surface/permafrost data based on in-situ measurements made at terrestrial research observatories located near the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Hourly-averaged multiyear data sets collected at Eureka (Nunavut, Canada) and Tiksi (East Siberia, Russia) are analyzed in more detail to elucidate similarities and differences in the seasonal cycles at these two Arctic stations, which are situated at significantly different latitudes (80.0°N and 71.6°N, respectively). While significant gross similarities exist in the annual cycles of various meteorological parameters and fluxes, the differences in latitude, local topography, cloud cover, snowfall, and soil characteristics produce noticeable differences in fluxes and in the structures of the atmospheric boundary layer and upper soil temperature profiles. An important factor is that even though higher latitude sites (in this case Eureka) generally receive less annual incoming solar radiation but more total daily incoming solar radiation throughout the summer months than lower latitude sites (in this case Tiksi). This leads to a counter-intuitive state where the average active layer (or thaw line) is deeper and the topsoil temperature in midsummer are higher in Eureka which is located almost 10° north of Tiksi. The study further highlights the differences in the seasonal and latitudinal variations of the incoming shortwave and net radiation as well as the moderating cloudiness effects that lead to temporal and spatial differences in the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer and the uppermost ground layer. Specifically the warm season (Arctic summer) is shorter and mid-summer amplitude of the surface fluxes near solar noon is generally less in Eureka than in Tiksi. During the dark Polar night and cold seasons (Arctic winter) when the ground is covered with snow and air temperatures

  10. The politics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moss, N.

    1991-01-01

    The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

  11. A Robust Response of the Hadley Circulation to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2014-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is expected to increase in a warmer climate. Yet, recent studies have inferred that the Hadley Circulation (HC), which is primarily driven by latent heating from tropical rainfall, is weakened under global warming. Here, we show evidence of a robust intensification of the HC from analyses of 33 CMIP5 model projections under a scenario of 1 per year CO2 emission increase. The intensification is manifested in a deep-tropics squeeze, characterized by a pronounced increase in the zonal mean ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere, a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone and enhanced rainfall in the deep tropics. These changes occur in conjunction with a rise in the region of maximum outflow of the HC, with accelerated meridional mass outflow in the uppermost branch of the HC away from the equator, coupled to a weakened inflow in the return branches of the HC in the lower troposphere.

  12. Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Seasonal Allergies (Hay Fever) KidsHealth / For Parents / Seasonal Allergies (Hay ... español Alergia estacional (fiebre del heno) About Seasonal Allergies "Achoo!" It's your son's third sneezing fit of ...

  13. Seasonal Variation in Epidemiology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero, Osvaldo

    2013-01-01

    Seasonality analyses are important in medical research. If the incidence of a disease shows a seasonal pattern, then an environmental factor must be considered in its etiology. We discuss a method for the simultaneous analysis of seasonal variation in multiple groups. The nuts and bolts are explained using simple trigonometry, an elementary…

  14. Deep water convection and biogeochemical cycling of carbon in the Northern North Atlantic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buch, E.; Gissel Nielsen, T.; Lundsgaard, C.; Bendtsen, J.

    2001-01-01

    In 1998, the Danish Research Council launched the Global Change project 'Biochemical cycling of carbon and ocean circulation in the Northern North Atlantic'. The overall aim of the project was to describe the effect of high latitude carbon dynamics on the global ocean-atmosphere carbon system, in general, and on the atmospheric pCO 2 in particular. At present, knowledge concerning the seasonal differences in turnover rates of organic material in polar and sub-polar regions is limited. Thus, in order to achieve the aim of the project, it was necessary to obtain biological and chemical rate measurements for production and mineralization of dissolved and particulate organic material at high latitudes and relate these to ocean dynamics at different times of the year. This was investigated in the project by performing three cruises to the Greenland Sea area at different times of the year. The purpose of the present chapter is to give a review of: 1) The physical environment of the Northern North Atlantic (ocean circulation, deep convection, North Atlantic Oscillation) and its variability including the recent trends of importance to climate change. 2) The chemical and biological processes of importance to carbon cycle and the importance of the carbon cycle to our understanding of climate variability. Additionally preliminary results from the Danish global change investigation in the Greenland Sea will be presented. With regard to circulation it is concluded that the deep water in the Greenland Sea continues to warm up, indicating that the deep water formation in this area is reduced. The biological investigations are providing a highly needed basic knowledge of the structure and function of the pelagic food web as well as of the microbial food web of the intermediate and deep water. These studies form a basis for assessing the productivity, export mechanisms, mineralization rates and mineralization depth-scales in these areas. Especially the questions about the

  15. [The innovation of warm disease theory in the Ming Dynasty before Wen yi lun On Pestilence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-bin

    2008-10-01

    Some doctors of the Ming dynasty raised subversive doubts against the traditional viewpoints of "exogenous cold disease is warm-heat" before the emergence of Wen yi lun (On Pestilence), holding that warm-heat disease "is contracted in different seasons instead of being transformed from cold to warm and/or heat". The conception of the separation of warm-heat disease and exogenous cold disease had changed from obscure to clear. As the idea became clear, the recognition on the new affection of warm, heat, summer-heat, pestilent pathogen was formed, and the idea that the pathogens of summer-heat and warm entered the human body through the mouth and nostrils was put forward. The six-channel syndrome differentiation of warm disease and the five sweat-resolving methods in pestilence raised by the doctors of this period are the aspects of the differential diagnosis of syndrome and treatment in warm diseases, and deserve to be paid attention to.

  16. Analysis and simulation of mesoscale convective systems accompanying heavy rainfall: The goyang case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hyun-Young; Ha, Ji-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Kuo, Ying-Hwa

    2011-05-01

    We investigated a torrential rainfall case with a daily rainfall amount of 379 mm and a maximum hourly rain rate of 77.5 mm that took place on 12 July 2006 at Goyang in the middlewestern part of the Korean Peninsula. The heavy rainfall was responsible for flash flooding and was highly localized. High-resolution Doppler radar data from 5 radar sites located over central Korea were analyzed. Numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were also performed to complement the high-resolution observations and to further investigate the thermodynamic structure and development of the convective system. The grid nudging method using the Global Final (FNL) Analyses data was applied to the coarse model domain (30 km) in order to provide a more realistic and desirable initial and boundary conditions for the nested model domains (10 km, 3.3 km). The mesoscale convective system (MCS) which caused flash flooding was initiated by the strong low level jet (LLJ) at the frontal region of high equivalent potential temperature (θe) near the west coast over the Yellow Sea. The ascending of the warm and moist air was induced dynamically by the LLJ. The convective cells were triggered by small thermal perturbations and abruptly developed by the warm θe inflow. Within the MCS, several convective cells responsible for the rainfall peak at Goyang simultaneously developed with neighboring cells and interacted with each other. Moist absolutely unstable layers (MAULs) were seen at the lower troposphere with the very moist environment adding the instability for the development of the MCS.

  17. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  18. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  19. Adaptation to seasonality and the winter freeze

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill Christine Preston

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Flowering plants initially diversified during the Mesozoic era at least 140 million years ago in regions of the world where temperate seasonal environments were not encountered. Since then several cooling events resulted in the contraction of warm and wet environments and the establishment of novel temperate zones in both hemispheres. In response, less than half of modern angiosperm families have members that evolved specific adaptations to cold seasonal climates, including cold acclimation, freezing tolerance, endodormancy, and vernalization responsiveness. Despite compelling evidence for multiple independent origins, the level of genetic constraint on the evolution of adaptations to seasonal cold is not well understood. However, the recent increase in molecular genetic studies examining the response of model and crop species to seasonal cold offers new insight into the evolutionary lability of these traits. This insight has major implications for our understanding of complex trait evolution, and the potential role of local adaptation in response to past and future climate change. In this review, we discuss the biochemical, morphological, and developmental basis of adaptations to seasonal cold, and synthesize recent literature on the genetic basis of these traits in a phylogenomic context. We find evidence for multiple genetic links between distinct physiological responses to cold, possibly reinforcing the coordinated expression of these traits. Furthermore, repeated recruitment of the same or similar ancestral pathways suggests that land plants might be somewhat pre-adapted to dealing with temperature stress, perhaps making inducible cold traits relatively easy to evolve.

  20. Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J; Fedorov, Alexey V; Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H

    2017-09-01

    An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world's largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400-ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

  1. What controls the seasonal cycle of columnar methane observed by GOSAT over different regions in India?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Naveen; Hayashida, Sachiko; Saeki, Tazu; Patra, Prabir K.

    2017-10-01

    Methane (CH4) is one of the most important short-lived climate forcers for its critical roles in greenhouse warming and air pollution chemistry in the troposphere, and the water vapor budget in the stratosphere. It is estimated that up to about 8 % of global CH4 emissions occur from South Asia, covering less than 1 % of the global land. With the availability of satellite observations from space, variability in CH4 has been captured for most parts of the global land with major emissions, which were otherwise not covered by the surface observation network. The satellite observation of the columnar dry-air mole fractions of methane (XCH4) is an integrated measure of CH4 densities at all altitudes from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. Here, we present an analysis of XCH4 variability over different parts of India and the surrounding cleaner oceanic regions as measured by the Greenhouse gases Observation SATellite (GOSAT) and simulated by an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (ACTM). Distinct seasonal variations of XCH4 have been observed over the northern (north of 15° N) and southern (south of 15° N) parts of India, corresponding to the peak during the southwestern monsoon (July-September) and early autumn (October-December) seasons, respectively. Analysis of the transport, emission, and chemistry contributions to XCH4 using ACTM suggests that a distinct XCH4 seasonal cycle over northern and southern regions of India is governed by both the heterogeneous distributions of surface emissions and a contribution of the partial CH4 column in the upper troposphere. Over most of the northern Indian Gangetic Plain regions, up to 40 % of the peak-to-trough amplitude during the southwestern (SW) monsoon season is attributed to the lower troposphere ( ˜ 1000-600 hPa), and ˜ 40 % to uplifted high-CH4 air masses in the upper troposphere ( ˜ 600-200 hPa). In contrast, the XCH4 seasonal enhancement over semi-arid western India is attributed mainly ( ˜ 70 %) to the

  2. Convection in complex shaped vessel; Convection dans des enceintes de forme complexe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    The 8 november 2000, the SFT (Societe Francaise de Thermique) organized a technical day on the convection in complex shaped vessels. Nine papers have been presented in the domains of the heat transfers, the natural convection, the fluid distribution, the thermosyphon effect, the steam flow in a sterilization cycle and the transformers cooling. Eight papers are analyzed in ETDE and one paper dealing with the natural convection in spent fuels depository is analyzed in INIS. (A.L.B.)

  3. Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to Southern Ocean Deep Convection Oscillations on Decadal to Centennial Time Scales in Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Reintges, A.; Park, W.; Latif, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many current coupled global climate models simulate open ocean deep convection in the Southern Ocean as a recurring event with time scales ranging from a few years to centennial (de Lavergne et al., 2014, Nat. Clim. Ch.). The only observation of such event, however, was the occurrence of the Weddell Polynya in the mid-1970s, an open water area of 350 000 km2 within the Antarctic sea ice in three consecutive winters. Both the wide range of modeled frequency of occurrence and the absence of deep convection in the Weddell Sea highlights the lack of understanding concerning the phenomenon. Nevertheless, simulations indicate that atmospheric and oceanic responses to the cessation of deep convection in the Southern Ocean include a strengthening of the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean (increasing SAM index) and a reduction in the export of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), potentially masking the regional effects of global warming (Latif et al., 2013, J. Clim.; Martin et al., 2014, Deep Sea Res. II). It is thus of great importance to enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean deep convection and clarify the associated time scales. In two multi-millennial simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM, ECHAM5 T31 atmosphere & NEMO-LIM2 ~2˚ ocean) we showed that the deep convection is driven by strong oceanic warming at mid-depth periodically overriding the stabilizing effects of precipitation and ice melt (Martin et al., 2013, Clim. Dyn.). Sea ice thickness also affects location and duration of the deep convection. A new control simulation, in which, amongst others, the atmosphere grid resolution is changed to T42 (~2.8˚), yields a faster deep convection flip-flop with a period of 80-100 years and a weaker but still significant global climate response similar to CMIP5 simulations. While model physics seem to affect the time scale and intensity of the phenomenon, the driving mechanism is a rather robust feature. Finally, we compare the atmospheric and

  4. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Keith F.; McMahon, Andrew M.; Ely, Kim S.; Serbin, Shawn P.; Rogers, Alistair

    2017-09-01

    Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by ˜ 1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be ˜ 2-3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW) chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming approaches is desired.

  5. Effects of different re-warm up activities in football players' performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Abade

    Full Text Available Warm up routines are commonly used to optimize football performance and prevent injuries. Yet, official pre-match protocols may require players to passively rest for approximately 10 to 15 minutes between the warm up and the beginning of the match. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the effect of different re-warm up activities on the physical performance of football players. Twenty-Two Portuguese elite under-19 football players participated in the study conducted during the competitive season. Different re-warm up protocols were performed 6 minutes after the same standardized warm up in 4 consecutive days in a crossover controlled approach: without, eccentric, plyometric and repeated changes of direction. Vertical jump and Sprint performances were tested immediately after warm up and 12 minutes after warm up. Results showed that repeated changes of direction and plyometrics presented beneficial effects to jump and sprint. Different practical implications may be taken from the eccentric protocol since a vertical jump impairment was observed, suggesting a possibly harmful effect. The absence of re-warm up activities may be detrimental to players' physical performance. However, the inclusion of re-warm up prior to match is a complex issue, since the manipulation of volume, intensity and recovery may positively or negatively affect the subsequent performance. In fact, this exploratory study shows that eccentric exercise may be harmful for physical performance when performed prior a football match. However, plyometric and repeated changes of direction exercises seem to be simple, quick and efficient activities to attenuate losses in vertical jump and sprint capacity after warm up. Coaches should aim to develop individual optimal exercise modes in order to optimize physical performance after re warm activities.

  6. A zero-power warming chamber for investigating plant responses to rising temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. F. Lewin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Advances in understanding and model representation of plant and ecosystem responses to rising temperature have typically required temperature manipulation of research plots, particularly when considering warming scenarios that exceed current climate envelopes. In remote or logistically challenging locations, passive warming using solar radiation is often the only viable approach for temperature manipulation. However, current passive warming approaches are only able to elevate the mean daily air temperature by  ∼  1.5 °C. Motivated by our need to understand temperature acclimation in the Arctic, where warming has been markedly greater than the global average and where future warming is projected to be  ∼  2–3 °C by the middle of the century; we have developed an alternative approach to passive warming. Our zero-power warming (ZPW chamber requires no electrical power for fully autonomous operation. It uses a novel system of internal and external heat exchangers that allow differential actuation of pistons in coupled cylinders to control chamber venting. This enables the ZPW chamber venting to respond to the difference between the external and internal air temperatures, thereby increasing the potential for warming and eliminating the risk of overheating. During the thaw season on the coastal tundra of northern Alaska our ZPW chamber was able to elevate the mean daily air temperature 2.6 °C above ambient, double the warming achieved by an adjacent passively warmed control chamber that lacked our hydraulic system. We describe the construction, evaluation and performance of our ZPW chamber and discuss the impact of potential artefacts associated with the design and its operation on the Arctic tundra. The approach we describe is highly flexible and tunable, enabling customization for use in many different environments where significantly greater temperature manipulation than that possible with existing passive warming

  7. Convective and nonconvective rainfall partitioning over a mixed Sudanian Savanna Agriculture Catchment: Use of a distributed sensor network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceperley, N. C.; Mande, T.; Barrenetxea, G.; Repetti, A.; Yacouba, H.; Tyler, S. W.; Parlange, M. B.

    2011-12-01

    A hydro-meteorological field campaign (joint EPFL-2iE) in a mixed agricultural and forest region in the southern Burkina Faso Savanna aims to identify and understand convective rainfall processes and the link to soil moisture. A simple slab Mixed Layer and Lifting Condensation Level model is implemented to separate convective and nonconvective rainfall. Data for this research were acquired during the 2010 rainy season using an array of wireless weather stations (SensorScope) as well as surface energy balance stations that based upon eddy correlation heat flux measurements. The precipitation was found to be variable over the basin with some 200 mm of difference in total seasonal rainfall between agricultural fields and savanna forest. Convective rainfall represents more than 30% of the total rainfall. The convective rainfall events are short (less than hour), intense (greater than 3 mm/minute) and occur both in the early morning and in the afternoons. These events can have an important impact on soil erosion, which we discuss in more detail along with seasonal stream-aquifer interactions.

  8. Steady, three-dimensional, internally heated convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, G.; Glatzmaier, G.A.; Travis, B.

    1993-01-01

    Numerical calculations have been carried out of steady, symmetric, three-dimensional modes of convection in internally heated, infinite Prandtl number, Boussinesq fluids at a Rayleigh number of 1.4x10 4 in a spherical shell with inner/outer radius of 0.55 and in a 3x3x1 rectangular box. Multiple patterns of convection occur in both geometries. In the Cartesian geometry the patterns are dominated by cylindrical cold downflows and a broad hot upwelling. In the spherical geometry the patterns consist of cylindrical cold downwellings centered either at the vertices of a tetrahedron or the centers of the faces of a cube. The cold downflow cylinders are immersed in a background of upwelling within which there are cylindrical hot concentrations (plumes) and hot halos around the downflows. The forced hot upflow return plumes of internally heated spherical convection are fundamentally different from the buoyancy-driven plumes of heated from below convection

  9. Convective Radio Occultations Final Campaign Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biondi, R. [Atmospheric Radiation Measurement, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Deep convective systems are destructive weather phenomena that annually cause many deaths and injuries as well as much damage, thereby accounting for major economic losses in several countries. The number and intensity of such phenomena have increased over the last decades in some areas of the globe. Damage is mostly caused by strong winds and heavy rain parameters that are strongly connected to the structure of the particular storm. Convection over land is usually stronger and deeper than over the ocean and some convective systems, known as supercells, also develop tornadoes through processes that remain mostly unclear. The intensity forecast and monitoring of convective systems is one of the major challenges for meteorology because in situ measurements during extreme events are too sparse or unreliable and most ongoing satellite missions do not provide suitable time/space coverage.

  10. Ignition in Convective-Diffusive Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Law, Chung

    1999-01-01

    ... efficiency as well as the knock and emission characteristics. The ignition event is clearly controlled by the chemical reactions of fuel oxidation and the fluid mechanics of convective and diffusive transport...

  11. Understanding and controlling plasmon-induced convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roxworthy, Brian J.; Bhuiya, Abdul M.; Vanka, Surya P.; Toussaint, Kimani C.

    2014-01-01

    The heat generation and fluid convection induced by plasmonic nanostructures is attractive for optofluidic applications. However, previously published theoretical studies predict only nanometre per second fluid velocities that are inadequate for microscale mass transport. Here we show both theoretically and experimentally that an array of plasmonic nanoantennas coupled to an optically absorptive indium-tin-oxide (ITO) substrate can generate >micrometre per second fluid convection. Crucially, the ITO distributes thermal energy created by the nanoantennas generating an order of magnitude increase in convection velocities compared with nanoantennas on a SiO2 base layer. In addition, the plasmonic array alters absorption in the ITO, causing a deviation from Beer-Lambert absorption that results in an optimum ITO thickness for a given system. This work elucidates the role of convection in plasmonic optical trapping and particle assembly, and opens up new avenues for controlling fluid and mass transport on the micro- and nanoscale.

  12. What favors convective aggregation and why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Caroline; Bony, Sandrine

    2015-07-01

    The organization of convection is ubiquitous, but its physical understanding remains limited. One particular type of organization is the spatial self-aggregation of convection, taking the form of cloud clusters, or tropical cyclones in the presence of rotation. We show that several physical processes can give rise to self-aggregation and highlight the key features responsible for it, using idealized simulations. Longwave radiative feedbacks yield a "radiative aggregation." In that case, sufficient spatial variability of radiative cooling rates yields a low-level circulation, which induces the upgradient energy transport and radiative-convective instability. Not only do vertically integrated radiative budgets matter but the vertical profile of cooling is also crucial. Convective aggregation is facilitated when downdrafts below clouds are weak ("moisture-memory aggregation"), and this is sufficient to trigger aggregation in the absence of longwave radiative feedbacks. These results shed some light on the sensitivity of self-aggregation to various parameters, including resolution or domain size.

  13. Autumn photosynthetic decline and growth cessation in seedlings of white spruce are decoupled under warming and photoperiod manipulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinziano, Joseph R; Way, Danielle A

    2017-08-01

    Climate warming is expected to increase the seasonal duration of photosynthetic carbon fixation and tree growth in high-latitude forests. However, photoperiod, a crucial cue for seasonality, will remain constant, which may constrain tree responses to warming. We investigated the effects of temperature and photoperiod on weekly changes in photosynthetic capacity, leaf biochemistry and growth in seedlings of a boreal evergreen conifer, white spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss]. Warming delayed autumn declines in photosynthetic capacity, extending the period when seedlings had high carbon uptake. While photoperiod was correlated with photosynthetic capacity, short photoperiods did not constrain the maintenance of high photosynthetic capacity under warming. Rubisco concentration dynamics were affected by temperature but not photoperiod, while leaf pigment concentrations were unaffected by treatments. Respiration rates at 25 °C were stimulated by photoperiod, although respiration at the growth temperatures was increased in warming treatments. Seedling growth was stimulated by increased photoperiod and suppressed by warming. We demonstrate that temperature is a stronger control on the seasonal timing of photosynthetic down-regulation than is photoperiod. Thus, while warming can stimulate carbon uptake in boreal conifers, the extra carbon may be directed towards respiration rather than biomass, potentially limiting carbon sequestration under climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Antartic observations of plasma convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, H.J.

    1983-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with the use of whistler duct tracking as a diagnostic for the behaviour of plasma in the plasmasphere. As a setting for the results given in the thesis, a broad review is presented which embraces pertinent aspects of previous experimental and theoretical studies of the plasmasphere. From a study of 24 hours of continuous whistler data recorded at Sanae, (L = 3,98), it is shown that associated with quiet magnetic conditions (Av Ksub(p)=1), there exists two plasmasphere bulges centred on about 1700 and 0100 UT. There is evidence that these plasmasphere bulge structures are part of a ground-state or reference base drift pattern. Electric field measurements provide some evidence that quiet time plasmasphere drift behaviour is controlled by the internal ionospheric current systems of dynamo origin, rather than being controlled by magnetospheric convection. Finally, this thesis describes an application of the whistler duct tracking technique to whistler data recorded simultaneously at two ground-based stations (Sanae (L = 3,98) and Halley (L = 4,23)). The identification of common whistler components on each station's data set provides a means of estimating the lifetimes of the associated whistler ducts. Duct lifetimes of as little as 30 minutes are found. Such short lived ducts have important implications for current theories of duct formation

  15. Simulating moist convection with a quasi-elastic sigma coordinate model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bopape, Mary-Jane M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available : Corrected TOGA COARE Sounding Humidity Data: Impact on Diagnosed Properties of Convection and Climate over the Warm Pool. Journal of Climate, 12, 2370-2384. WW, X Wu and MW Moncrieff, 1996: Cloud-Resolving Modeling of Tropical Cloud Systems during Phase... during the suppressed phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation: Comparing single-column models with cloud resolving models. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1-22. Sun S and W Sun, 2002: A One-dimensional Time Dependent Cloud Model...

  16. Dynamics of acoustic-convective drying of sunflower cake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhilin, A. A.

    2017-10-01

    The dynamics of drying sunflower cake by a new acoustic-convective method has been studied. Unlike the conventional (thermal-convective) method, the proposed method allows moisture to be extracted from porous materials without applying heat to the sample to be dried. Kinetic curves of drying by the thermal-convective and acoustic-convective methods were obtained and analyzed. The advantages of the acoustic-convective extraction of moisture over the thermal-convective method are discussed. The relaxation times of drying were determined for both drying methods. An intermittent drying mode which improves the efficiency of acoustic-convective extraction of moisture is considered.

  17. Impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damm, Andrea; Greuell, Wouter; Landgren, Oskar; Prettenthaler, Franz

    2017-01-01

    Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons challenge the winter tourism industry. In this study the impacts of +2 °C global warming on winter tourism demand in Europe's ski tourism related NUTS-3 regions are quantified. Using time series regression models, the relationship between

  18. Microclimate impacts of passive warming methods in Antarctica: implications for climate change studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bokhorst, S.; Huiskes, A.H.L.; Convey, P.; Sinclair, B.J.; Lebouvier, M.; van de Vijver, B.; Wall, D.H.

    2011-01-01

    Passive chambers are used to examine the impacts of summer warming in Antarctica but, so far, impacts occurring outside the growing season, or related to extreme temperatures, have not been reported, despite their potentially large biological significance. In this review, we synthesise and discuss

  19. Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Rinnan, Asmund; Michelsen, Anders; Holopainen, Jarmo K; Rinnan, Riikka

    2010-07-01

    *Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. *We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra heath hosting a long-term warming and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) litter addition experiment. *The relatively low emissions of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were doubled in response to an air temperature increment of only 1.9-2.5 degrees C, while litter addition had a minor influence. BVOC emissions were seasonal, and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. *The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects.

  20. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  1. Range shifts and global warming: ecological responses of Empetrum nigrum L. to experimental warming at its northern (high Arctic) and southern (Atlantic) geographical range margin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buizer, Bert; Weijers, Stef; Van Bodegom, Peter M; Van Breda, Johan; De Korte, Maarten; Van Rijckevorsel, Jaap; Rozema, Jelte; Alsos, Inger Greve; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken

    2012-01-01

    Global change is expected to lead to range shifts of plant species. The ecological mechanisms underpinning these shifts are currently not well understood. Here, we compared ecological responses possibly underlying southern range contraction and northern range expansion of Empetrum nigrum, a key species in northern heathlands, which may be related to global change. We hypothesized a negative response to warming in the ‘south’ (i.e. the Netherlands) and a positive response at the northern range margin (the tundra on Svalbard). Open top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate global warming. In the ‘south’, OTC warming caused enhanced shoot growth and growth rate, biomass increment, advanced phenology, larger and heavier berries of Empetrum, while its growing season was extended by 75 days. Under OTC warming co-occurring Calluna vulgaris also showed an increased growing season length (by 98 days) as well as increased shoot growth rate and biomass growth, plant cover and height. Still, we found no evidence for increased competitiveness relative to Empetrum. In the ‘north’, Empetrum responded with increased shoot and biomass growth, enhanced berry development and ripening to warming. These responses exceeded those of co-occurring Cassiope tetragona with the exception of its biomass response. The direct and indirect ecological responses found do not readily explain the observed northward retreat of Empetrum at the southern range margin. The direct ecological responses found at its northern range margin are, on the other hand, in line with the increased occurrences of this species on Svalbard. (letter)

  2. Anthropogenic Warming Impacts on Today's Sierra Nevada Snowpack and Flood Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Hall, A. D.; Berg, N.

    2017-12-01

    Focusing on this recent extreme wet year over California, this study investigates the warming impacts on the snowpack and the flood severity over the Sierra Nevada (SN), where the majority of the precipitation occurs during the winter season and early spring. One of our goals is to quantify anthropogenic warming impacts on the snow water equivalent (SWE) including recent historical warming and prescribed future projected warming scenarios; This work also explores to what extent flooding risk has increased under those warming cases. With a good representation of the historical precipitation and snowpack over the Sierra Nevada from the historical reference run at 9km (using WRF), the results from the offline Noah-MP simulations with perturbed near-surface temperatures reveal magnificent impacts of warming to the loss of the average snowpack. The reduction of the SWE under warming mainly results from the decreased rain-to-snow conversion with a weaker effect from increased snowmelt. Compared to the natural case, the past industrial warming decreased the maximum SWE by about one-fifth averaged over the study area. Future continuing warming can result in around one-third reduction of current maximum SWE under RCP4.5 emissions scenario, and the loss can reach to two-thirds under RCP8.5 as a "business-as-usual" condition. The impact of past warming is particularly outstanding over the North SN region where precipitation dominates and over the middle elevation regions where the snow mainly distributes. In the future, the warming impact on SWE progresses to higher regions, and so to the south and east. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the projected mid-elevation snowpack almost disappears by April 1st with even high-elevation snow reduced by about half. Along with the loss of the snowpack, as the temperature warms, floods can also intensify with increased early season runoff especially under heavy-rainy days caused by the weakened rain-to-snow processes and

  3. Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent during the ENSO events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trismidianto; Satyawardhana, H.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzed the mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) over the Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for the the15-year period from 2001 to 2015. The MCCs identified by infrared satellite imagery that obtained from the Himawari generation satellite data. This study has reported that the frequencies of the MCC occurrences at the El Niño and La Niña were higher than that of neutral conditions during DJF. Peak of MCC occurrences during DJF at La Niña and neutral condition is in February, while El Niño is in January. ENSO strongly affects the occurrence of MCC during the DJF season. The existences of the MCC were also accompanied by increased rainfall intensity at the locations of the MCC occurrences for all ENSO events. During JJA seasons, the MCC occurrences are always found during neutral conditions, El Niño and La Niña in Indian Ocean. MCC occurring during the JJA season on El Niño and neutral conditions averaged much longer than during the DJF season. In contrast, MCCs occurring in La Niña conditions during the JJA season are more rapidly extinct than during the DJF. It indicates that the influence of MCC during La Niña during the DJF season is stronger than during the JJA season.

  4. Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

    2017-10-31

    Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

  5. Is convective precipitation increasing? The case of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llasat, M. C.; Marcos, R.; Turco, M.

    2012-04-01

    A recent work (Turco and Llasat, 2011) has been performed to analyse the trends of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003, calculated from a interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution. This work has showed that no general trends at a regional scale have been observed, considering the annual and the seasonal regional values, and only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern. Simultaneously, Llasat et al (2009, 2010) have showed an important increase of flash-flood events in the same region. Although aspects related with vulnerability, exposure and changes in uses of soil have been found as the main responsible of this increase, a major knowledge on the evolution of high rainfall events is mandatory. Heavy precipitation is usually associated to convective precipitation and therefore the analysis of the latter is a good indicator of it. Particularly, in Catalonia, funding was raised to define a parameter, designated as β, related with the greater or lesser convective character of the precipitation (Llasat, 2001). This parameter estimates the contribution of convective precipitation to total precipitation using 1-min or 5-min rainfall intensities usually estimated by rain gauges and it can be also analysed by means of the meteorological radar (Llasat et al, 2007). Its monthly distribution shows a maximum in August, followed by September, which are the months with the major number of flash-floods in Catalonia. This parameter also allows distinguishing between different kinds of precipitation events taking into account the degree of convective contribution. The main problem is the lack of long rainfall rate series that allow analysing trends in convective precipitation. The second one is related with its heterogeneous spatial and temporal distribution. To

  6. Estimation of convective entrainment properties from a cloud-resolving model simulation during TWP-ICE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Guang J.; Wu, Xiaoqing; Zeng, Xiping; Mitovski, Toni

    2016-10-01

    The fractional entrainment rate in convective clouds is an important parameter in current convective parameterization schemes of climate models. In this paper, it is estimated using a 1-km-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulation of convective clouds from TWP-ICE (the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment). The clouds are divided into different types, characterized by cloud-top heights. The entrainment rates and moist static energy that is entrained or detrained are determined by analyzing the budget of moist static energy for each cloud type. Results show that the entrained air is a mixture of approximately equal amount of cloud air and environmental air, and the detrained air is a mixture of ~80 % of cloud air and 20 % of the air with saturation moist static energy at the environmental temperature. After taking into account the difference in moist static energy between the entrained air and the mean environment, the estimated fractional entrainment rate is much larger than those used in current convective parameterization schemes. High-resolution (100 m) large-eddy simulation of TWP-ICE convection was also analyzed to support the CRM results. It is shown that the characteristics of entrainment rates estimated using both the high-resolution data and CRM-resolution coarse-grained data are similar. For each cloud category, the entrainment rate is high near cloud base and top, but low in the middle of clouds. The entrainment rates are best fitted to the inverse of in-cloud vertical velocity by a second order polynomial.

  7. Seasonal dependence of high-latitude electric fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    de la Beaujardiere, O.; Leger, C.; Alcayde, D.; Fontanari, J.

    1991-01-01

    The seasonal dependence of the high-latitude electric field was investigated using Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar data. Average ExB drifts were derived from 5 years of measurements centered around solar minimum. The electrostatic potentials that best fit the observed average electric field were calculated. It was found that the large-scale convection pattern significantly changes with season. This change involves the overall shape of the convection pattern, as well as the electric field intensity, and thus the total dawn-dusk potential across the polar cap. The cross polar cap potential drop is largest in fall, followed by winter, spring and summer. The small difference found between the summer and winter cross polar cap potential can be attributed to differing field-aligned potential drops. In view of the well-known relationship between field-aligned currents and parallel potential drop, this is consistent with the observations that Birkeland currents are larger in the summer than in winter. Changes in the overall shape of the convection pattern are consistent with the simple notion that the whole pattern is shifted toward the nightside as well as, to a lesser extent, toward the dawnside in summer as compared to winter. This assumption is based on the following observed effects: (1) The rotation of the overall convection pattern toward earlier local times with respect to the noon-midnight direction is maximum for summer on the dayside. (2) On the nightside, the Harang discontinuity is typically located within the radar field of view (Λ=67 to 82) in the winter averaged patterns, but it is equatorward of the field of view in summer. (3) The line that joins the dawn and dusk potential maxima is shifted toward the midnight sector in summer as compared to winter by about 5 degree. (4) In the dawn cell, the latitude of the convection reversal is the lowest during summer; in the dusk cell the latitude of the reversal is the lowest during winter

  8. Sustainable land cover and terrain modification to enhance convection and precipitation in the arid region of the United Arab Emirates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulfmeyer, V.; Branch, O.; Adebabseh, A.; Temimi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Irrigated plantations and modified terrain can provide a sustainable means of enhancing convective rainfall in arid regions like the United Arab Emirates, or UAE, and can be used to aid ongoing cloud seeding operations through the geographic-localization of seedable cloud formation. The first method, the planting of vast irrigated plantations of hardy desert shrubs, can lead to wind convergence and vertical mixing through increased roughness and modified radiative balances. When upper-air atmospheric instability is present, these phenomena can initiate convection. The second method, increasing the elevation of moderate-sized mountains, is based on the correlation between elevation and the number of summertime convection initiation events observed in the mountains of the UAE and Oman. This augmentation of existing orographic features should therefore increase the likelihood and geographic range of convection initiation events. High-resolution simulations provide a powerful means of assessing the likely impacts of land surface modifications. Previous convection-permitting simulations have yielded some evidential support for these hypotheses, but higher resolutions down to 1 km provide more detail regarding convective processes and land surface representation. Using seasonal simulations with the WRF-NOAHMP land-atmosphere model at a 2.5 km resolution, we identify frequent zones of convergence and atmospheric instability in the UAE and select interesting cases. Using these results, as well as an agricultural feasibility study, we identify optimal plantation positions within the UAE. We then run realistic plantation scenarios for single case studies at 1 km resolution. Using the same cases, we simulate the impact of augmenting mountain elevations on convective processes, with the augmentation being achieved through GIS-based modification of the terrain data. For both methods, we assess the impacts quantitatively and qualitatively, and assess key processes and

  9. Drilling comparison in "warm ice" and drill design comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Augustin, L.; Motoyama, H.; Wilhelms, F.

    2007-01-01

    For the deep ice-core drilling community, the 2005/06 Antarctic season was an exciting and fruitful one. In three different Antarctic locations, Dome Fuji, EPICA DML and Vostok, deep drillings approached bedrock (the ice-water interface in the case of Vostok), emulating what had previously been...... achieved at NorthGRIP, Greenland, (summer 2003 and 2004) and at EPICA Dome C2, Antarctica (season 2004/05). For the first time in ice-core drilling history, three different types of drill (KEMS, JARE and EPICA) simultaneously reached the depth of 'warm ice' under high pressure. After excellent progress...... at each site, the drilling rate dropped and the drilling teams had to deal with refrozen ice on cutters and drill heads. Drills have different limits and perform differently. In this comparative study, we examine depth, pressure, temperature, pump flow and cutting speed. Finally, we compare a few...

  10. Physical mechanisms of spring and summertime drought related with the global warming over the northern America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, W.; Kim, K. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Drought during the growing season (spring through summer) is severe natural hazard in the large cropland over the northern America. It is important to understand how the drought is related with the global warming and how it will change in the future. This study aims to investigate the physical mechanism of global warming impact on the spring and summertime drought over the northern America using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis. The Northern Hemisphere surface warming, the most dominant mode of the surface air temperature, has resulted in decreased relative humidity and precipitation over the mid-latitude region of North America. For the viewpoint of atmospheric water demand, soil moisture and evaporation have also decreased significantly, exacerbating vulnerability of drought. These consistent features of changes in water demand and supply related with the global warming can provide a possibility of credible insight for future drought change.

  11. Global warming in the context of 2000 years of Australian alpine temperature and snow cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Hamish; Callow, John Nikolaus; Soderholm, Joshua; McGrath, Gavan; Campbell, Micheline; Zhao, Jian-Xin

    2018-03-13

    Annual resolution reconstructions of alpine temperatures are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere, while no snow cover reconstructions exist. These records are essential to place in context the impact of anthropogenic global warming against historical major natural climate events such as the Roman Warm Period (RWP), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we show for a marginal alpine region of Australia using a carbon isotope speleothem reconstruction, warming over the past five decades has experienced equivalent magnitude of temperature change and snow cover decline to the RWP and MCA. The current rate of warming is unmatched for the past 2000 years and seasonal snow cover is at a minimum. On scales of several decades, mean maximum temperatures have undergone considerable change ≈ ± 0.8 °C highlighting local scale susceptibility to rapid temperature change, evidence of which is often masked in regional to hemisphere scale temperature reconstructions.

  12. MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, C I; Schwartz, C

    2017-10-16

    The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

  13. Sea surface temperature as a proxy for convective gravity wave excitation: a study based on global gravity wave observations in the middle atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. Jia

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Absolute values of gravity wave momentum flux (GWMF deduced from satellite measurements by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER instrument and the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST with the aim of identifying those oceanic regions for which convection is a major source of gravity waves (GWs. Our study identifies those latitude bands where high correlation coefficients indicate convective excitation with confidence. This is based on a global ray-tracing simulation, which is used to delineate the source and wind-filtering effects. Convective GWs are identified at the eastern coasts of the continents and over the warm water regions formed by the warm ocean currents, in particular the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. Potential contributions of tropical cyclones to the excitation of the GWs are discussed. Convective excitation can be identified well into the mid-mesosphere. In propagating upward, the centers of GWMF formed by convection shift poleward. Some indications of the main forcing regions are even shown for the upper mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT.

  14. Vertical natural convection: application of the unifying theory of thermal convection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ng, C.S.; Ooi, A.; Lohse, Detlef; Chung, D.

    2015-01-01

    Results from direct numerical simulations of vertical natural convection at Rayleigh numbers 1.0×10 5 –1.0×10 9 and Prandtl number 0.709 support a generalised applicability of the Grossmann–Lohse (GL) theory, which was originally developed for horizontal natural (Rayleigh–Bénard) convection. In

  15. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  16. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  17. Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten

    2016-12-01

    The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

  18. Cryogenic forced convection refrigerating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klee, D.J.

    1988-01-01

    This patent describes the method of refrigerating products by contact with a refrigerating gas which comprises introducing product into a refrigeration zone, contacting the product with the refrigerating gas for a sufficient time to refrigerate it to the appropriate extent and removing the refrigerated product. The improvement for producing the refrigeration gas from a liquid cryogen such that essentially all of the liquid cryogen is fully vaporized before contacting the product comprises: (a) introducing the liquid cryogen, selected from the group consisting of liquid air and liquid nitrogen, at elevated pressure into an ejector as the motive fluid to accelerate a portion of a warm refrigerating gas through the ejector while mixing the cryogen and gas to effect complete vaporization of the liquid cryogen and substantial cooling of the portion of the refrigerating gas resulting in a cold discharge gas which is above the liquefaction temperature of the cryogen; (b) introducing the cold discharge gas into a forced circulation pathway of refrigerating gas and producing a cold refrigerating gas which contacts and refrigerates product and is then at least partially recirculated; (c) sensing the temperature of the refrigerating gas in the forced circulation pathway and controlling the introduction of liquid cryogen with regard to the sensed temperature to maintain the temperature of the discharge gas above the liquefacton temperature of the cryogen utilized

  19. Numerical modelling of convective heat transport by air flow in permafrost talus slopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wicky

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Talus slopes are a widespread geomorphic feature in the Alps. Due to their high porosity a gravity-driven internal air circulation can be established which is forced by the gradient between external (air and internal (talus temperature. The thermal regime is different from the surrounding environment, leading to the occurrence of permafrost below the typical permafrost zone. This phenomenon has mainly been analysed by field studies and only few explicit numerical modelling studies exist. Numerical simulations of permafrost sometimes use parameterisations for the effects of convection but mostly neglect the influence of convective heat transfer in air on the thermal regime. In contrast, in civil engineering many studies have been carried out to investigate the thermal behaviour of blocky layers and to improve their passive cooling effect. The present study further develops and applies these concepts to model heat transfer in air flows in a natural-scale talus slope. Modelling results show that convective heat transfer has the potential to develop a significant temperature difference between the lower and the upper parts of the talus slope. A seasonally alternating chimney-effect type of circulation develops. Modelling results also show that this convective heat transfer leads to the formation of a cold reservoir in the lower part of the talus slope, which can be crucial for maintaining the frozen ground conditions despite increasing air temperatures caused by climate change.

  20. Multifaceted intra-seasonal modes over the East Asia-western North Pacific summer monsoon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ha, K. J.; Oh, H.

    2017-12-01

    Intra-seasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task due to high impact on 2/3 of world populations' daily life, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intra-seasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): preMeiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. The preMeiyu-Baiu mode is strongly linked to both the anomalous low-level convergence and vertical wind shear through baroclinic instability, and the Changma&Meiyu mode has a strengthened tropic-subtropics connection along the western north Pacific subtropical high, which induces vertical destabilization and strong convective instability. The WNPSM and monsoon gyre modes are characterized by anomalous southeasterly flow of warm and moist air from western north Pacific monsoon, and low-level easterly flow, respectively. Prominent difference in response to the ENSO leads to different effects of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific thermal state, and consequently, the distinct moisture supply and instability variations for the EASM intra-seasonal modes. We attempt to determine the predictability sources for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM using physical-empirical model. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the SST/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the ENSO and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the preMeiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the WNP, which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor which is causative of north-south thermal contrast. Since the Changma&Meiyu mode is strongly related to the WNP subtropical high, a major precursor is the persistent SST difference between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The WNPSM mode is mostly affected by the

  1. Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kueppers, Lara M; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S; Mitton, Jeffry B

    2017-06-01

    Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower

  2. Timing of Seasonal Sales.

    OpenAIRE

    Courty, Pascal; Li, Hao

    1999-01-01

    We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores choose several designs at the beginning of the season without knowing wich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have a chance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionable ones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of the season, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing their fashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods still on the shelves, stores adjust down...

  3. Statistical Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Middle Reaches area of the Yellow River During 2005-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Guixiang

    2017-04-01

    Based on the hourly TBB and cloud images of FY-2E, meteorological observation data, and NCEP reanalysis data with 1°×1° spatial resolution from May to October during 2005-2014, the climatic characteristics of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) over the middle reaches area of the Yellow River were analyzed, including mesoscale convective complex (MCC), persistent elongated convective systems (PECS), meso-βscale MCC (MβCCS) and Meso-βscale PECS (MβECS). The results are as follows: (1) MCS tended to occur over the middle and south of Gansu, the middle and south of Shanxi, the middle and north of Shaanxi, and the border of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. MCS over the middle reaches area of the Yellow River formed in May to October, and was easy to develop the mature in summer. MCC and MβECS were main MCS causing precipitation in summer. (2) The daily variation of MCS was obvious, and usually formed and matured in the afternoon and the evening to early morning of the next day. Most MCS generated fast and dissipated slowly, and were mainly move to the easterly and southeasterly, but the moving of round shape MCS was less than the elongated shape's. (3) The average TBB for the round shape MCS was lower than the elongated shape MCS. The development of MCC was most vigorous and strong, and it was the strongest in August, while that of MβECS wasn't obviously influenced by the seasonal change. The average eccentricity of the mature MCC and PECS over the middle reaches area of the Yellow River was greater than that in USA, and the former was greater than in the lower reaches area of the Yellow River, while the latter was smaller. (4) The characteristics of rainfall caused by MCS were complex over the middle reaches area of the Yellow River, and there were obvious regional difference. There was wider, stronger and longer precipitation when the multiple MCS merged. The rainfall in the center of cloud area was obviously greater than in other region of cloud area. The

  4. Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget

    Science.gov (United Sta