Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

California's Snow Gun and its implications for mass balance predictions under greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Howat, I.; Snyder, M.; Tulaczyk, S.; Sloan, L.

2003-12-01

Precipitation has received limited treatment in glacier and snowpack mass balance models, largely due to the poor resolution and confidence of precipitation predictions relative to temperature predictions derived from atmospheric models. Most snow and glacier mass balance models rely on statistical or lapse rate-based downscaling of general or regional circulation models (GCM's and RCM's), essentially decoupling sub-grid scale, orographically-driven evolution of atmospheric heat and moisture. Such models invariably predict large losses in the snow and ice volume under greenhouse warming. However, positive trends in the mass balance of glaciers in some warming maritime climates, as well as at high elevations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, suggest that increased precipitation may play an important role in snow- and glacier-climate interactions. Here, we present a half century of April snowpack data from the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains of California, USA. This high-density network of snow-course data indicates that a gain in winter snow accumulation at higher elevations has compensated loss in snow volume at lower elevations by over 50% and has led to glacier expansion on Mt. Shasta. These trends are concurrent with a region-wide increase in winter temperatures up to 2° C. They result from the orographic lifting and saturation of warmer, more humid air leading to increased precipitation at higher elevations. Previous studies have invoked such a "Snow Gun" effect to explain contemporaneous records of Tertiary ocean warming and rapid glacial expansion. A climatological context of the California's "snow gun" effect is elucidated by correlation between the elevation distribution of April SWE observations and the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation, both controlling the heat and moisture delivered to the U.S. Pacific coast. The existence of a significant "Snow Gun" effect presents two challenges to snow and glacier mass

Assessing the combined effect of dams and climate warming on streamflow in California's Sierra Nevada for regional-scale adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Rheinheimer, D. E.; Viers, J. H.

2012-12-01

Dams and their operations harm river ecosystems, in part by altering the natural flow regimes that those ecosystems depend on. In the multi-reservoir water management systems of California's Sierra Nevada, greater emphasis is being placed on re-operating existing reservoir systems to recover downstream ecosystems. However, climate change is changing inflow patterns, affecting both ecosystems and traditional water system benefits across the region. As new reservoir operation schemes will be needed to manage for natural resources management objectives at the regional scale, characterizing historical and future environmental impacts of current operations across the region can aid in prioritizing planning efforts. We used a coarse-scale water resources simulation model developed for the western Sierra Nevada to explore the independent and combined effects of dams and climate warming on the flow regime directly below reservoirs, the focal point for instream flow requirements in operations licenses. We quantified changes to mean annual flow, annual low flow duration, annual runoff centroid timing, and weekly rate of decrease under binary combinations of management (unregulated/regulated) and climate (historical/future) conditions. We demonstrate that although rivers in the Sierra Nevada are currently managed in ways that are harmful to instream ecosystems, and that streamflow effects of operations are typically much worse than climate change effects, there are signals that reservoirs can potentially be used to help adapt to some of climate changes harmful effects with little additional effort in some cases. This study is the first step toward a better understanding of the environmental costs from and opportunities afforded by the current stock of reservoirs in a large hydroregion under changing social and environmental conditions.

Parasitic copepod (Lernaea cyprinacea) outbreaks in foothill yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) linked to unusually warm summers in northern California

Science.gov (United States)

Sarah J. Kupferberg; Alessandro Catenazzi; Kevin Lunde; Amy J. Lind; Wendy J. Palen

2009-01-01

How climate change may affect parasite–host assemblages and emerging infectious diseases is an important question in amphibian decline research. We present data supporting a link between periods of unusually warm summer water temperatures during 2006 and 2008 in a northern California river, outbreaks of the parasitic copepod Lernaea cyprinacea, and...

El Nino-like Teleconnection Increases California Precipitation in Response to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R.

2017-12-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Nino teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Nino-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Future changes in coastal upwelling ecosystems with global warming: The case of the California Current System.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiu, Peng; Chai, Fei; Curchitser, Enrique N; Castruccio, Frederic S

2018-02-12

Coastal upwelling ecosystems are among the most productive ecosystems in the world, meaning that their response to climate change is of critical importance. Our understanding of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems is largely limited to the open ocean, mainly because coastal upwelling is poorly reproduced by current earth system models. Here, a high-resolution model is used to examine the response of nutrients and plankton dynamics to future climate change in the California Current System (CCS). The results show increased upwelling intensity associated with stronger alongshore winds in the coastal region, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in both the CCS and open ocean. Warming of the open ocean forces isotherms downwards, where they make contact with water masses with higher nutrient concentrations, thereby enhancing the nutrient flux to the deep source waters of the CCS. Increased winds and eddy activity further facilitate upward nutrient transport to the euphotic zone. However, the plankton community exhibits a complex and nonlinear response to increased nutrient input, as the food web dynamics tend to interact differently. This analysis highlights the difficulty in understanding how the marine ecosystem responds to a future warming climate, given to range of relevant processes operating at different scales.

The 2014-2015 Warming Anomaly in the Southern California Current System: Glider Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Zaba, K. D.; Rudnick, D. L.

2016-02-01

During 2014-2015, basin-wide patterns of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies affected surface waters throughout the North Pacific Ocean. We present regional physical and biological effects of the warming, as observed by our autonomous underwater gliders in the southern California Current System (SCCS). Established in 2006, the California Glider Network provides sustained subsurface observations for monitoring the coastal effects of large-scale climate variability. Along repeat sections that extend to 350-500 km in offshore distance and 500 m in depth, Spray gliders have continuously occupied CalCOFI lines 66.7, 80, and 90 for nearly nine years. Following a sawtooth trajectory, the gliders complete each dive in approximately 3 hours and over 3 km. Measured variables include pressure, temperature, salinity, chlorophyll fluorescence, and velocity. For each of the three lines, a comprehensive climatology has been constructed from the multiyear timeseries. The ongoing surface-intensified warming anomaly, which began locally in early 2014 and persists through present, is unprecedented in the glider climatology. Reaching up to 5°C, positive temperature anomalies have been generally confined to the upper 50 m and persistent for over 20 months. The timing of the warming was in phase along each glider line but out of phase with equatorial SST anomalies, suggesting a decoupling of tropical and mid-latitude dynamics. Concurrent physical oceanographic anomalies included a depressed thermocline and high stratification. An induced biological response was apparent in the deepening of the subsurface chlorophyll fluorescence maximum. Ancillary atmospheric data from the NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) model indicate that a combination of surface forcing anomalies, namely high downward heat flux and weak wind stress magnitude, caused the unusual warm, downwelling conditions. With a strong El Niño event in the forecast for winter 2015-2016, our sustained glider network will

Inequalities in School Climate in California

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Sonia; Cohen, Alison K.; Huang, Kevin; Hanson, Thomas L.; Austin, Gregory

2015-01-01

Purpose: School climate, or the physical and social conditions of the learning environment, has implications for academic achievement. The paper aims to discuss this issue. Design/Methodology/Approach: The authors examine how school climate varies by school-level characteristics in California using administrative data and the California School…

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Henry, Gregory H.R.; Hollister, Robert D.

2012-01-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations...... of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups...... to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed...

Global warming and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-10-01

A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jianyang Xia; Yiqi Luo; Jiquan Chen; Shilong Piao; Ciais, Philippe; Shiqiang Wan

2014-01-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30 degrees and 90 degrees N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research. (authors)

Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also

California Getting Wetter to the North, Drier to the South: Natural Variability or Climate Change?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Killam

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Current climate change projections anticipate that global warming trends will lead to changes in the distribution and intensity of precipitation at a global level. However, few studies have corroborated these model-based results using historical precipitation records at a regional level, especially in our study region, California. In our analyses of 14 long-term precipitation records representing multiple climates throughout the state, we find northern and central regions increasing in precipitation while southern regions are drying. Winter precipitation is increasing in all regions, while other seasons show mixed results. Rain intensity has not changed since the 1920s. While Sacramento shows over 3 more days of rain per year, Los Angeles has almost 4 less days per year in the last century. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO greatly influence the California precipitation record. The climate change signal in the precipitation records remains unclear as annual variability overwhelms the precipitation trends.

Climate. Meeting the challenge of global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Mann, Michael; Greene, Charles; Salas y Melia, David; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Journe, Venance; Guegan, Jean-Francois; ); Bopp, Laurent; Magnan, Alexandre; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Bally, Rene; Duponnois, Robin; Giodda, Alain; MOATTI, JEAN-PAUL; Recio, Carlos; Santana, Luis; Hulot, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Meritet, Sophie; Jacobson, Mark; Delucchi, Mark; Julliard, Romain; Balibar, Sebastien; Prevot, Anne-Caroline; Colleony, Agathe; Mangin, Loic

2015-01-01

The contributions of this publication first discuss and comment the cost of inaction in front of global warming. The authors deny the existence of a climate pause, explain the existence of harsh winters in Europe in the context of global warming, outline that models developed and used in the 1960 already predicted the present trend, discuss the complex relationships between climate change and health, outline the threats on the oceans (acidification, impact on marine species, level rise) and consequently on mankind. A second set of contributions addresses opportunities to be implemented now: to plant trees along the Sahara, the example of an ecologic island (El Hierro, Canaries Islands), the commitment of communities, associations and citizens, the necessary energy transition, innovation at the service of climate, the role of finances and investments. The third set of contributions addresses perspectives: to do without fossil energies, how to reduce the impact of global warming in cities (by planting trees and closing shutters), the emergence of participative science, arguments against climate sceptics, a difficult change of behaviours

El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Robert J.; Luptowitz, Rainer

2017-07-01

Future California (CA) precipitation projections, including those from the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), remain uncertain. This uncertainty is related to several factors, including relatively large internal climate variability, model shortcomings, and because CA lies within a transition zone, where mid-latitude regions are expected to become wetter and subtropical regions drier. Here, we use a multitude of models to show CA may receive more precipitation in the future under a business-as-usual scenario. The boreal winter season-when most of the CA precipitation increase occurs-is associated with robust changes in the mean circulation reminiscent of an El Niño teleconnection. Using idealized simulations with two different models, we further show that warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures accounts for these changes. Models that better simulate the observed El Niño-CA precipitation teleconnection yield larger, and more consistent increases in CA precipitation through the twenty-first century.

Can warming particles enter global climate discussions?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bond, Tami C

2007-01-01

'Soot' or 'black carbon', which comes from incomplete combustion, absorbs light and warms the atmosphere. Although there have been repeated suggestions that reduction of black carbon could be a viable part of decreasing global warming, it has not yet been considered when choosing actions to reduce climatic impact. In this paper, I examine four conceptual barriers to the consideration of aerosols in global agreements. I conclude that some of the major objections to considering aerosols under hemispheric or global agreements are illusory because: (1) a few major sources will be addressed by local regulations, but the remainder may not be addressed by traditional air quality management; (2) climate forcing by carbon particles is not limited to 'hot spots'-about 90% of it occurs at relatively low concentrations; (3) while aerosol science is complex, the most salient characteristics of aerosol behavior can be condensed into tractable metrics including, but not limited to, the global warming potential; (4) despite scientific uncertainties, reducing all aerosols from major sources of black carbon will reduce direct climate warming with a very high probability. This change in climate forcing accounts for at least 25% of the accompanying CO 2 forcing with significant probability (25% for modern diesel engines, 90% for superemitting diesels, and 55% for cooking with biofuels). Thus, this fraction of radiative forcing should not be ignored

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

2014-12-01

This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

Science.gov (United States)

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

Science.gov (United States)

Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

2011-01-01

Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

2011-06-22

This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

The European climate under a 2 °C global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vautard, Robert; Stegehuis, Annemiek; Gobiet, Andreas; Mendlik, Thomas; Sobolowski, Stefan; Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Watkiss, Paul; Landgren, Oskar; Teichmann, Claas; Jacob, Daniela

2014-01-01

A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 °C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North–South (West–East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity. (paper)

Effects of in situ climate warming on monarch caterpillar (Danaus plexippus development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan P. Lemoine

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Climate warming will fundamentally alter basic life history strategies of many ectothermic insects. In the lab, rising temperatures increase growth rates of lepidopteran larvae but also reduce final pupal mass and increase mortality. Using in situ field warming experiments on their natural host plants, we assessed the impact of climate warming on development of monarch (Danaus plexippus larvae. Monarchs were reared on Asclepias tuberosa grown under ‘Ambient’ and ‘Warmed’ conditions. We quantified time to pupation, final pupal mass, and survivorship. Warming significantly decreased time to pupation, such that an increase of 1 °C corresponded to a 0.5 day decrease in pupation time. In contrast, survivorship and pupal mass were not affected by warming. Our results indicate that climate warming will speed the developmental rate of monarchs, influencing their ecological and evolutionary dynamics. However, the effects of climate warming on larval development in other monarch populations and at different times of year should be investigated.

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

2018-05-01

The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case.

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

2012-01-01

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east–west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific’s could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. PMID:23112174

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

2012-11-13

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto

2016-01-01

warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, I N; Torn, M S; Riley, W J; Wehner, M F

2014-01-01

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at the warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections

Coccolithophore response to climate and surface hydrography in Santa Barbara Basin, California, AD 1917–2004

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Grelaud

2009-10-01

Full Text Available The varved sedimentary AD 1917–2004 record from the depositional center of the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB, California was analyzed with monthly to triannual resolution to yield relative abundances of six coccolithophore species representing at least 96% of the coccolithophore assemblage. Seasonal/annual relative abundances respond to climatic and surface hydrographic conditions in the SBB, whereby (i the three species G. oceanica, H. carteri and F. profunda are characteristic of the strength of the northward flowing warm California Counter Current, (ii the two species G. ericsonii and G. muellerae are associated with the cold equatorward flowing California Current, (iii and E. huxleyi appears to be endemic to the SBB. Spectral analyses on relative abundances of these species show that all are influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO and/or by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO. Increased relative abundances of G. oceanica and H. carteri are associated with warm ENSO events, G. muellerae responds to warm PDO events and the abundance of G. ericsonii increases during cold PDO events. Morphometric parameters measured on E. huxleyi, G. muellerae and G. oceanica indicate increasing coccolithophore shell carbonate mass from ~1917 until 2004 concomitant with rising pCO₂ and sea surface temperature in the region of the SBB.

Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

2006-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaiser, H.M.; Sampath, R.; Riha, S.J.; Wilks, D.S.; Rossiter, D.G.

1993-01-01

The potential economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming are examined at the farm level. Three models of the relevant climatic, agronomic, and economic processes are developed and linked to address climate change impacts and agricultural adaptability. Several climate warming severity. The results indicate that grain farmers in southern Minnesota can effectively adapt to a gradually changing climate (warmer and either wetter or drier) by adopting later maturing cultivars, changing crop mix, and altering the timing of field operations to take advantage of a longer growing season resulting from climate warming

Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

De Saedeleer, Bernard

2016-01-27

Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

Climate warming: what we can actually expect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delbecq, Denis; Lemarchand, Fabienne; Boucher, Olivier; Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard; Le Treut, Herve

2013-01-01

As the next IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report is soon to be published, a paleo-climatologist answers few questions about issues related to climate change (recent climate events, slower temperature increase during the past ten years, lessons learned from the previous IPCC report, evolutions of models, remaining opportunities to limit temperature increase to 2 degrees). A second article comments climate modelling improvements (finer description of oceans, atmosphere and ice field, introduction of new mechanisms in IPCC models such as carbon cycle, vegetation evolution, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry, models relying on greenhouse gas emission principles and not on socioeconomic scenarios any longer). A third article outlines that Earth has never been so warm since 1850 and proposes some explanations about the fact that warming has slowed down during the last ten years. A fourth article discusses how greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced, notices that their accounting underestimates the short-term and medium-term impact of methane emission reduction, and stresses the importance of an increased attention to methane emissions

GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM: A REVIEW OF LITERATURE

OpenAIRE

Ramasamy, Rajesh; Swamy, Anjaneya

2015-01-01

Global warming, climate change and tourism of late, have taken the centre stage of academic research. A raging debate is on apart from the popular writings and research articles published on the theme. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice since the mid 20th century”. This conceptual paper discussed...

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

Climate Change and Future Fire Regimes: Examples from California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon E. Keeley

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation

ASM Lecture Series: Global Warming and Climate Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, F. S.

2010-01-01

The melting of ice and permafrost in the north polar region and the shrinking of the tropical glaciers are signals that global warming is no longer solely a warning about the future, but changes which have already arrived. The initial effects of this warming are noticeably present, and the concerns are now of substantial climate change in the near future. Modeling of the consequences on the future atmosphere from increased release of greenhouse gases and some of the possible consequences of climate change, such as rising sea levels and melting of the north polar ice, are discussed. (author)

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

Science.gov (United States)

Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

2013-12-01

Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal; Watson, Elizabeth J.; Turner, T. Edward; Roland, Thomas P.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Kokfelt, Ulla; Schoning, Kristian; Pratte, Steve; Gallego-Sala, Angela; Charman, Dan J.; Sanderson, Nicole; Garneau, Michelle; Carrivick, Jonathan L.; Woulds, Clare; Holden, Joseph; Parry, Lauren; Galloway, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed in response to climatic warming, culminating in collapse of the peat domes. Commonalities between study sites lead us to propose a five-phase model for permafrost peatland response to climatic warming. This model suggests a shared ecohydrological trajectory towards a common end point: inundated Arctic fen. Although carbon accumulation is rapid in such sites, saturated soil conditions are likely to cause elevated methane emissions that have implications for climate-feedback mechanisms. PMID:26647837

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.;

Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Rinnan, Asmund; Michelsen, Anders; Holopainen, Jarmo K; Rinnan, Riikka

2010-07-01

*Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. *We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra heath hosting a long-term warming and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) litter addition experiment. *The relatively low emissions of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were doubled in response to an air temperature increment of only 1.9-2.5 degrees C, while litter addition had a minor influence. BVOC emissions were seasonal, and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. *The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects.

Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilczek, Amity M; Cooper, Martha D; Korves, Tonia M; Schmitt, Johanna

2014-06-03

If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species' native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species' native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Warming patterns in regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomez-Navarro, J.J.; Montavez, J.P.; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.; Jerez, S. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Garcia-Valero, J.A. [Murcia Univ. (Spain). Dept. de Fisica; Delegacion Territorial en Murcia (ES). Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET); Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F. [Univ. Complutense, Madrid (Spain). Dept. de Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera

2010-06-15

A set of four regional climate change projections over the Iberian Peninsula has been performed. Simulations were driven by two General Circulation Models (consisting of two versions of the same atmospheric model coupled to two different ocean models) under two different SRES scenario. The XXI century has been simulated following a full-transient approach with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5. An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOF) is applied to the monthly mean series of daily maximum and minimum 2-metre temperature to extract the warming signal. The first EOF is able to capture the spatial structure of the warming. The obtained warming patterns are fairly dependent on the month, but hardly change with the tested scenarios and GCM versions. Their shapes are related to geographical parameters, such as distance to the sea and orography. The main differences among simulations mostly concern the temporal evolution of the warming. The temperature trend is stronger for maximum temperatures and depends on the scenario and the driving GCM. This asymmetry, as well as the different warming rates in summer and winter, leads to a continentalization of the climate over the IP. (orig.)

Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Araújo, Miguel B.; Thuiller, W.; Pearson, R. G.

2006-01-01

deleterious than previously postulated; indeed, climate cooling would be more deleterious for the persistence of amphibian and reptile species than warming. The ability of species to cope with climate warming may, however, be offset by projected decreases in the availability of water. This should......-east are projected to gain suitable climate. This is because dry conditions in the south-west are projected to increase, approaching the levels found in North Africa, where few amphibian species are able to persist. Main conclusions The impact of increasing temperatures on amphibian and reptile species may be less...

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

The 2008 California climate change assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Franco, G.

2008-12-01

In 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-03-05, which laid the foundation for California's ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation reduction efforts. The 2020 goal is now codified in state law requiring bringing 2020 emissions to the 1990 levels. The Executive Order also mandates the preparation of biennial updates on the latest climate change science, potential impacts, and assessment of the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks through various adaptation options. In 2006, the first of these mandated scientific assessments (The Governor's Scenarios Report) was released. Based on new scientific studies conducted in the interim, the next assessment, the '2008 Governor's Scenarios Report' is currently in preparation. It has three principal goals: (1) to improve the assessment of climate changes for California and associated impacts on key physical and biological indicators; (2) to begin to translate these physical and biological impacts into sectoral economic impacts; and (3) to begin to develop and evaluate strategies for key sectors or regions for adapting to climate changes already underway. Contributors to this session will present some of this new research to the scientific community. Among the most exciting new insights are impacts assessments for the all-important water and agricultural sectors, coastal areas, public health and related air quality and environmental justice issues, the forestry and energy sectors. This presentation will give an overview of the overall effort which will result in about 35 scientific papers from different research institutions in California. All of the studies are interlinked in such a way as to produce a consistent overall assessment.

Climate Change and Flood Operations in the Sacramento Basin, California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ann D. Willis

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Ann D. Willis, Jay R. Lund, Edwin S. Townsley, and Beth A. Faberdoi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2014v9iss2art3Climate warming is likely to challenge many current conceptions and regulatory policies, particularly for water management. A warmer climate is likely to hinder flood operations in California’s Sacramento Valley by decreasing snowpack storage and increasing the rain fraction of major storms. This work examines how a warmer climate would change flood peaks and volumes for nine major historical floods entering Shasta, Oroville, and New Bullards Bar reservoirs, using current flood flow forecast models and current flood operating rules. Shasta and Oroville have dynamic flood operation curves that accommodate many climate-warming scenarios. New Bullards Bar’s more static operating rule performs poorly for these conditions. Revisiting flood operating rules is an important adaptation for climate warming.

Acclimation of methane production weakens ecosystem response to climate warming in a northern peatland

Science.gov (United States)

MA, S.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Warming-induced increases in greenhouse gases from terrestrial ecosystems represent a positive feedback to twenty-first-century climate warming, but the magnitude of this stimulatory effect remains uncertain. Acclimation of soil respiration and photosynthesis have been found to slow down the feedback due to the substrate limitation and thermal adaptation. However, acclimation of ecosystem methane emission to climate warming has not been well illustrated, despite that methane is directly responsible for approximately 20% of global warming since pre-industrial time. In this study, we used the data-model fusion approach to explore the potential acclimation of methane emission to climate warming. We assimilated CH4 static chamber flux data at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) experimental site into the ecosystem model, TECO_SPRUCE. The SPRUCE project has been conducted to study the responses of northern peatland to climate warming (+0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, +9 °C) and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (+0 and +500 ppm). The warming treatments were initiated from June 2014. We estimated parameter values using environmental and flux data in those five warming treatment levels from 2014 to 2016 for the acclimation study. The key parameters that were estimated for methane emissions are the potential ratio of CO2 converted to CH4 (r_me), Q10 for CH4 production (Q10_pro), maximum oxidation rate (Omax) and the factor of transport ability at plant community level (Tveg). Among them, r_me and Q10_pro were well constrained in each treatment plot. Q10 decreased from 3.33 (control) to 1.22 (+9˚C treatment) and r_me decreased from 0.675 (control) to 0.505 (+9˚C treatment). The acclimation will dampen the warming effect on methane production and emission. Current ecosystem models assumed constant Q10 for CH4 production and CH4/CO2 conversion ratio in the future warmed climate. The assumption is likely to overestimate the methane

Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

Climate warming: answering some basic questions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jancovici, J.M.

2009-01-01

Illustrated by many graphs, drawings, figures and tables, this long publication offers a detailed overview of the physical aspects of climatic change (definition of the greenhouse effect, explanation and assessment of warming, relationship and differences between greenhouse effect and ozone depletion, between climate change and greenhouse effect induced by human activity, and between meteorology and climate) and states some generalities on greenhouse effect gases. The author then discusses prospective issues on climatic change (notion of average temperature, role and liability of climate models, evolutions of temperatures and precipitations in different places, influence of greenhouse gas reduction), the various risks associated with climatic change (changes of sea currents, impact on ecosystems, diseases, ozone depletion, geographical differences, threat from methane hydrate). After a presentation of the carbon cycle, the next chapters are discussing the scientific discourses, the assessment of greenhouse effect in our everyday life, the impact of possible collective and individual actions, the relationship between greenhouse effect and economy, and strategic choices in France on airports and on nuclear energy

Snowmelt response to simulated warming across a large elevation gradient, southern Sierra Nevada, California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. N. Musselman

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In a warmer climate, the fraction of annual meltwater produced at high melt rates in mountainous areas is projected to decline due to a contraction of the snow-cover season, causing melt to occur earlier and under lower energy conditions. How snowmelt rates, including extreme events relevant to flood risk, may respond to a range of warming over a mountain front is poorly known. We present a model sensitivity study of snowmelt response to warming across a 3600 m elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, USA. A snow model was run for three distinct years and verified against extensive ground observations. To simulate the impact of climate warming on meltwater production, measured meteorological conditions were modified by +1 to +6 °C. The total annual snow water volume exhibited linear reductions (−10 % °C−1 consistent with previous studies. However, the sensitivity of snowmelt rates to successive degrees of warming varied nonlinearly with elevation. Middle elevations and years with more snowfall were prone to the largest reductions in snowmelt rates, with lesser changes simulated at higher elevations. Importantly, simulated warming causes extreme daily snowmelt (99th percentiles to increase in spatial extent and intensity, and shift from spring to winter. The results offer insight into the sensitivity of mountain snow water resources and how the rate and timing of water availability may change in a warmer climate. The identification of future climate conditions that may increase extreme melt events is needed to address the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

Were sauropod dinosaurs responsible for the warm Mesozoic climate?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.J. (Tom van Loon

2012-10-01

Full Text Available It was recently postulated that methane production by the giant Mesozoic sauropod dinosaurs was larger than the present-day release of this greenhouse gas by nature and man-induced activities jointly, thus contributing to the warm Mesozoic climate. This conclusion was reached by correct calculations, but these calculations were based on unrealistic assumptions: the researchers who postulated this dinosaur-induced warm climate did take into account neither the biomass production required for the sauropods' food, nor the constraints for the habitats in which the dinosaurs lived, thus neglecting the palaeogeographic conditions. This underlines the importance of palaeogeography for a good understanding of the Earth's geological history.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

Science.gov (United States)

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado

2012-01-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

Vulnerability of High-Quality Winegrowing to Climate Change in California

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, K. N.; Field, C. B.; Matthews, M. A.; Lobell, D. B.

2009-05-01

We took an interdisciplinary approach to examine the climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity of both the ecological and social systems of winegrowing. In a three-year study, we used field, laboratory, modeling, and anthropological approaches to examine the vulnerability of the wine industry to climate change. We developed models of winegrape yields based on the effects of historical temperature and precipitation in California, and used these findings to project future yields under climate change. We examined the concentrations of phenolic compounds important to wine quality (anthocyanins and tannins) in Pinot noir grapes from across a range of mesoclimates. We found that increased concentrations of these phenolic compounds were correlated with cool temperatures in the fall the year before harvest, warm temperatures from budburst to bloom, and cool temperatures from bloom to veraison, and with lower light intensities in these highly sun-exposed vines. We also conducted interviews to examine the adaptation responses of winegrowers to environmental stresses. We found that growers undertake a wide variety of environmental management strategies in the vineyard, most of which are individual in nature, and either in response to an existing stress, or in anticipation of an imminent stress. Finally, we examined the potential adaptive capacity of the wine industry to climate change, based on its awareness of climate change, ability to react, and actual actions and barriers to action. We conclude that winegrowers have a fairly high adaptive capacity, but that successful adaptation in practice depends on including proactive and coordinated community responses, which are beginning to develop.

Evaluating the promise and pitfalls of a potential climate change-tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Kirk N; Powell, Jackson; Rudie, Dave; Levin, Lisa A

2018-05-01

Marine fishery stakeholders are beginning to consider and implement adaptation strategies in the face of growing consumer demand and potential deleterious climate change impacts such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation. This study investigates the potential for development of a novel climate change - tolerant sea urchin fishery in southern California based on Strongylocentrotus fragilis (pink sea urchin), a deep-sea species whose peak density was found to coincide with a current trap-based spot prawn fishery ( Pandalus platyceros ) in the 200-300-m depth range. Here we outline potential criteria for a climate change - tolerant fishery by examining the distribution, life-history attributes, and marketable qualities of S. fragilis in southern California. We provide evidence of seasonality of gonad production and demonstrate that peak gonad production occurs in the winter season. S. fragilis likely spawns in the spring season as evidenced by consistent minimum gonad indices in the spring/summer seasons across 4 years of sampling (2012-2016). The resiliency of S. fragilis to predicted future increases in acidity and decreases in oxygen was supported by high species abundance, albeit reduced relative growth rate estimates at water depths (485-510 m) subject to low oxygen (11.7-16.9 µmol kg -1 ) and pH Total (climate-tolerant fishery development in an attempt to inform future urchin fishery stakeholders.

A nested modeling study of elevation-dependent climate change signals in California induced by increased atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jinwon

2001-01-01

Dynamically downscaled climate change signals due to increased atmospheric CO2 are investigated for three California basins. The downscaled signals show strong elevation dependence, mainly due to elevated freezing levels in the increased CO2 climate. Below 2.5 km, rainfall increases by over 150% while snowfall decreases by 20-40% in the winter. Above 2.5 km, rainfall and snowfall both increase in the winter, as the freezing levels appear mostly below this level. Winter snowmelt increases in all elevations due to warmer temperatures in the increased CO2 climate. Reduced snowfall and enhanced snowmelt during the winter decreases snowmelt-driven spring runoff below the 2.5 km level, where the peak snowmelt occurs one month earlier in the increased CO2 climate. Above 2.5km, increased winter snowfall maintains snowmelt-driven runoff through most of the warm season. The altered hydrologic characteristics in the increased CO2 climate affect the diurnal temperature variation mainly via snow-albedo-soil moisture feedback

Global climate change and California agriculture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, L.; Rains, W.; Kennedy, L.

1991-01-01

This paper has highlighted some of the impacts that a warmer climate may have on agriculture in California. Because of the state's diverse geomorphology it is difficult to predict what crops will grow in which locations under future climate regimes. However, the potential interactions between warmer temperatures, higher CO 2 concentrations, and the factors that affect plant and animal growth may have major consequences for the competitive position of the state's agriculture. Forward-thinking research and public policies are required to assure that responses to climate change will optimize production systems under future constraints

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

Science.gov (United States)

King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Southwest Regional Climate Hub and California Subsidiary Hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Emile Elias; Caiti Steele; Kris Havstad; Kerri Steenwerth; Jeanne Chambers; Helena Deswood; Amber Kerr; Albert Rango; Mark Schwartz; Peter Stine; Rachel Steele

2015-01-01

This report is a joint effort of the Southwest Regional Climate Hub and the California Subsidiary Hub (Sub Hub). The Southwest Regional Climate Hub covers Arizona, California, Hawai‘i and the U.S. affiliated Pacific Islands, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah and contains vast areas of western rangeland, forests, and high-value specialty crops (Figure 1). The California Sub...

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Tropical forest soil microbes and climate warming: An Andean-Amazon gradient and `SWELTR'

Science.gov (United States)

Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.; Fierer, N.; Whitaker, J.; Ostle, N. J.; McNamara, N. P.; Bardgett, R.; Silman, M.; Bååth, E.; Salinas, N.; Meir, P.

2017-12-01

Climate warming predicted for the tropics in the coming century will result in average temperatures under which no closed canopy forest exists today. There is, therefore, great uncertainty associated with the direction and magnitude of feedbacks between tropical forests and our future climate - especially relating to the response of soil microbes and the third of global soil carbon contained in tropical forests. While warming experiments are yet to be performed in tropical forests, natural temperature gradients are powerful tools to investigate temperature effects on soil microbes. Here we draw on studies from a 3.5 km elevation gradient - and 20oC mean annual temperature gradient - in Peruvian tropical forest, to investigate how temperature affects the structure of microbial communities, microbial metabolism, enzymatic activity and soil organic matter cycling. With decreased elevation, soil microbial diversity increased and community composition shifted, from taxa associated with oligotrophic towards copiotrophic traits. A key role for temperature in shaping these patterns was demonstrated by a soil translocation experiment, where temperature-manipulation altered the relative abundance of specific taxa. Functional implications of these community composition shifts were indicated by changes in enzyme activities, the temperature sensitivity of bacterial and fungal growth rates, and the presence of temperature-adapted iso-enzymes at different elevations. Studies from a Peruvian elevation transect indicated that soil microbial communities are adapted to long-term (differences with elevation) and short-term (translocation responses) temperature changes. These findings indicate the potential for adaptation of soil microbes in tropical soils to future climate warming. However, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to climate warming in lowland forests, in situ experimentation is required. Finally, we describe SWELTR (Soil Warming Experiment in Lowland

Impact of climate warming on upper layer of the Bering Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Zhang, Rong; Anderson, Whit G.; Zeng, Fanrong; Stock, Charles A.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dixon, Keith W.; Griffies, Stephen M.

2013-01-01

The impact of climate warming on the upper layer of the Bering Sea is investigated by using a high-resolution coupled global climate model. The model is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 1% per year until CO2 reaches double its initial value (after 70 years), after which it is held constant. In response to this forcing, the upper layer of the Bering Sea warms by about 2°C in the southeastern shelf and by a little more than 1°C in the western basin. The wintertime ventilation to the permanent thermocline weakens in the western Bering Sea. After CO2 doubling, the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea becomes almost ice-free in March, and the stratification of the upper layer strengthens in May and June. Changes of physical condition due to the climate warming would impact the pre-condition of spring bio-productivity in the southeastern shelf.

Climate: a planet and men: what human influence on climate warming?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orsenna, E.; Petit, M.; Chabreuil, A. and others

2011-01-01

The authors, all members of the 'Argonauts club', have decided with other scientists, to write this book in order to allow the reader to make his own opinion about the influence of human activities on global warming. The book presents and supplies precise answers to the questions about the climate machine and its complex mechanisms according to the present day state of scientific knowledge. It takes stock of the actual climate situation and of the overall possible means at our disposal to limit the extent of the harmful anthropic impact. (J.S.)

Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man made global warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

The interaction between energy and climate is explored, including the impact on global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear and fossil fuels. The global warming problem is introduced. Comprehensive analogies with warmer times are made. From the best models available, the future global average surface temperature is found and modified, describing the global warming effects caused by greenhouse effect caused by gases other than carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by man, i.e. nitrous oxide, methane, ammonia, and the chlorofluoromethanes. Paleoclimatic scenarios are reviewed, showing possible effects of global warming. An 800 to 1100 ppm CO/sub 2/ concentration causes irreversible Arctic melting, leading to displacement of present climatic zones by 400 to 800 km.

Implications of climate change (global warming) for the healthcare system.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffa, R B; Eltoukhy, N S; Raffa, K F

2012-10-01

Temperature-sensitive pathogenic species and their vectors and hosts are emerging in previously colder regions as a consequence of several factors, including global warming. As a result, an increasing number of people will be exposed to pathogens against which they have not previously needed defences. We illustrate this with a specific example of recent emergence of Cryptococcus gattii infections in more temperate climates. The outbreaks in more temperate climates of the highly virulent--but usually tropically restricted--C. gattii is illustrative of an anticipated growing challenge for the healthcare system. There is a need for preparedness by healthcare professionals in anticipation and for management of such outbreaks, including other infections whose recent increased prevalence in temperate climates can be at least partly associated with global warming. (Re)emergence of temperature-sensitive pathogenic species in more temperate climates will present new challenges for healthcare systems. Preparation for outbreaks should precede their occurrence. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jason A.

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

Permafrost degradation and methane: low risk of biogeochemical climate-warming feedback

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Xiang; Adam Schlosser, C; Sokolov, Andrei; Anthony, Katey Walter; Zhuang Qianlai; Kicklighter, David

2013-01-01

Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH 4 and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, inundated emission sources, are small, particularly when weighed against human emissions. The additional warming, across the range of climate policy and uncertainties in the climate-system response, would be no greater than 0.1 ° C by 2100. Further, for this temperature feedback to be doubled (to approximately 0.2 ° C) by 2100, at least a 25-fold increase in the methane emission that results from the estimated permafrost degradation would be required. Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions. (letter)

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stott, Peter; Good, Peter; Jones, Gareth; Gillett, Nathan; Hawkins, Ed

2013-01-01

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming. (letter)

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and global warming potentials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vate, J.F. van de

1996-01-01

Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO 2 and CH 4 , are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO 2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH 4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

Common metrics. Comparing the warming effect of climate forcers in climate policy; Common metrics. Laempenemiseen vaikuttavien paeaestoejen yhteismitallistaminen ilmastopolitiikassa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindroos, T. J.; Ekholm, T.; Savolainen, I.

2012-11-15

Climate policy needs a relatively simple method to compare the warming effect of different greenhouse gases (GHGs). Otherwise it would be necessary to negotiate a different reduction target for each gas. At the moment, Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept is used to compare different GHGs. Numerical values of GWP factors have been updated alongside with scientific understanding and majority seems content to the GWP. From 2005 onwards there have been many proposals of optional metrics. The most well known is Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) concept which measures the change of temperature as does global climate policies. The decision between metrics is a multicriteria decision which should include at least the coherence with climate policy and cost efficiency. The GWP concept may be a little more difficult to understand than the GTP but it is more cost efficient. Alongside with new metrics, scientists and politicians have started to discuss of new emission which have an effect on warming. These Short Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) have either warming or cooling effect. Their effect can be presented with GWP and GTP but the uncertainties in the emission factors are large. In total, SLCFs reduce overall emissions of EU approximately 1% in year 2000. NO{sub x}, SO{sub x} (cooling) and black carbon (warming) emissions were the biggest factors. EU is planning to reduce the SLCF emissions to achieve health and environmental benefits, but at the same time this reduces the effect of EU's climate policies by approximately 10%. Uncertainties in the estimates are large. (orig.)

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

The response of southern California ecosystems to Younger Dryas-like rapid climate change: Comparison of glacial terminations 1 and 5.

Science.gov (United States)

Heusser, L. E.; Hendy, I. L.

2015-12-01

The Younger Dryas is a well-known rapid climatic cooling that interrupted the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 1-2 deglacial warming of Termination 1. This cool event has been associated with ice sheet readvance, meridional overturning, circulation changes, and southward movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In Southern California, the Younger Dryas has been associated with cooler SST, low marine productivity, a well-ventilated oxygen minimum zone, and a wetter climate. Similar rapid cooling events have been found at other terminations including Termination 5 at the MIS 11-12 deglaciation (~425 Ka) identified by ice rafting events in the North Atlantic. Here we present new pollen census data from a unique suite of cores taken from the sub-oxic sediments of Santa Barbara Basin (MV0508-15JC, MV0805-20JC, MV0508-33JC, 29JC and 21JC). These short cores, collected on a truncated anticline within SBB, provide the opportunity to examine the response of southern California terrestrial and marine ecosystems to rapid climate change during the MIS 11-12 deglaciation (Termination 5), which is identified by a bioturbated interval within a sequence of laminated sediments. During Termination 1, changes in Southern California precipitation are reflected in pollen- based reconstructions Southern California vegetation. The high precipitation of glacial montane-coniferous assemblages of pine (Pinus) and Juniper (Juniperus/Calocedrus) transitions into interglacial drought, as expresssed by arid oak (Quercus)/chaparral vegetation. The Younger Dryas interrupts the transition as a high-amplitude pulse in pine associated with increased Gramineae (grass). Termination 5 differs, as the high precipitation of glacial montane-coniferous assemblages do not transition into arid oak/chaparral vegetation. However, a Younger Dryas-like rapid climate event was associated with increased pine and grass.

Incubation under Climate Warming Affects Behavioral Lateralisation in Port Jackson Sharks

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Catarina Vila Pouca

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Climate change is warming the world’s oceans at an unprecedented rate. Under predicted end-of-century temperatures, many teleosts show impaired development and altered critical behaviors, including behavioral lateralisation. Since laterality is an expression of brain functional asymmetries, changes in the strength and direction of lateralisation suggest that rapid climate warming might impact brain development and function. However, despite the implications for cognitive functions, the potential effects of elevated temperature in lateralisation of elasmobranch fishes are unknown. We incubated and reared Port Jackson sharks at current and projected end-of-century temperatures and measured preferential detour responses to left or right. Sharks incubated at elevated temperature showed stronger absolute laterality and were significantly biased towards the right relative to sharks reared at current temperature. We propose that animals reared under elevated temperatures might have more strongly lateralized brains to cope with deleterious effects of climate change on brain development and growth. However, far more research in elasmobranch lateralisation is needed before the significance of these results can be fully comprehended. This study provides further evidence that elasmobranchs are susceptible to the effects of future ocean warming, though behavioral mechanisms might allow animals to compensate for some of the challenges imposed by climate change.

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

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Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

2015-12-01

A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R.W.; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James E Cloern

Full Text Available Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species.We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations.Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1 an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2 varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3 inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

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C.-E. Park

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

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Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

2011-12-01

There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

Comparing the sensitivity of permafrost and marine gas hydrate to climate warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, A.E.; Dallimore, S.R.; Hyndman, R.D.; Wright, F.

2005-01-01

The sensitivity of Arctic subpermafrost gas hydrate at the Mallik borehole was compared to temperate marine gas hydrate located offshore southwestern Canada. In particular, a finite element geothermal model was used to determine the sensitivity to the end of the ice age, and contemporary climate warming of a 30 m thick methane hydrate layer lying at the base of a gas hydrate stability zone prior to 13.5 kiloannum (ka) before present (BP). It was suggested that the 30 m gas-hydrate-bearing layer would have disappeared by now, according to the thermal signal alone. However, the same gas-hydrate-bearing layer underlying permafrost would persist until at least 4 ka after present, even with contemporary climate warming. The longer time for subpermafrost gas hydrate comes from the thawing pore ice at the base of permafrost, at the expense of dissociation of the deeper gas hydrate. The dissociation of underlying gas hydrate from climate surface warming is buffered by the overlying permafrost

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

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King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.

2017-11-01

There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European climate extremes at these warming levels. For example, we find that events similar to the European record hot summer of 2003, which caused tens of thousands of excess deaths, would be very likely at least 24% less frequent in a world at 1.5 °C global warming compared to 2 °C global warming. Under 2 °C of global warming, we could expect such extreme summer temperatures in the historical record to become commonplace, occurring in at least one-in-every-two years. We find that there are very clear benefits to limiting global warming for the European continent, including fewer and less intense heat and rainfall extremes when compared with higher levels of global warming.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

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Xuezhen Ge

Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Fungal decomposition of terrestrial organic matter accelerated Early Jurassic climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Pieńkowski, Grzegorz; Hodbod, Marta; Ullmann, Clemens V.

2016-08-01

Soils - constituting the largest terrestrial carbon pool - are vulnerable to climatic warming. Currently existing uncertainties regarding carbon fluxes within terrestrial systems can be addressed by studies of past carbon cycle dynamics and related climate change recorded in sedimentary successions. Here we show an example from the Early Jurassic (early Toarcian, c. 183 mya) marginal-marine strata from Poland, tracking the hinterland response to climatic changes through a super-greenhouse event. In contrast to anoxia-related enhanced carbon storage in coeval open marine environments, Total Organic Carbon (TOC) concentrations in the Polish successions are substantially reduced during this event. Increasing temperature favoured fungal-mediated decomposition of plant litter - specifically of normally resistant woody tissues. The associated injection of oxidized organic matter into the atmosphere corresponds to abrupt changes in standing vegetation and may have contributed significantly to the amplified greenhouse climate on Earth. The characteristic Toarcian signature of multiple warm pulses coinciding with rapidly decreasing carbon isotope ratios may in part be the result of a radical reduction of the terrestrial carbon pool as a response to climate change.

Disentangling the effects of a century of eutrophication and climate warming on freshwater lake fish assemblages.

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Peter C Jacobson

Full Text Available Eutrophication and climate warming are profoundly affecting fish in many freshwater lakes. Understanding the specific effects of these stressors is critical for development of effective adaptation and remediation strategies for conserving fish populations in a changing environment. Ecological niche models that incorporated the individual effects of nutrient concentration and climate were developed for 25 species of fish sampled in standard gillnet surveys from 1,577 Minnesota lakes. Lake phosphorus concentrations and climates were hindcasted to a pre-disturbance period of 1896-1925 using existing land use models and historical temperature data. Then historical fish assemblages were reconstructed using the ecological niche models. Substantial changes were noted when reconstructed fish assemblages were compared to those from the contemporary period (1981-2010. Disentangling the sometimes opposing, sometimes compounding, effects of eutrophication and climate warming was critical for understanding changes in fish assemblages. Reconstructed abundances of eutrophication-tolerant, warmwater taxa increased in prairie lakes that experienced significant eutrophication and climate warming. Eutrophication-intolerant, warmwater taxa abundance increased in forest lakes where primarily climate warming was the stressor. Coolwater fish declined in abundance in both ecoregions. Large changes in modeled abundance occurred when the effects of both climate and eutrophication operated in the same direction for some species. Conversely, the effects of climate warming and eutrophication operated in opposing directions for other species and dampened net changes in abundance. Quantifying the specific effects of climate and eutrophication will allow water resource managers to better understand how lakes have changed and provide expectations for sustainable fish assemblages in the future.

How much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?

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Tokarska, Katarzyna Kasia; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.

2016-04-01

While estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are very uncertain, and the amount which could ultimately be burnt under a business as usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions, an amount of five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions in the absence of mitigation actions. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report indicates that an approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions holds only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typically assumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predicted by such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation effect dominating the effects of positive carbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions, as predicted by simple carbon-climate models. We analyze simulations from four state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and seven Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), driven by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Extension scenario (RCP 8.5 Ext), which represents a very high emission scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in absence of climate mitigation policies. Our results demonstrate that while terrestrial and ocean carbon storage varies between the models, the CO2-induced warming continues to increase approximately linearly with cumulative carbon emissions even for higher levels of cumulative emissions, in all four ESMs. Five of the seven EMICs considered simulate a similarly linear response, while two exhibit less warming at higher cumulative emissions for reasons we discuss. The ESMs simulate global mean warming of 6.6-11.0°C, mean Arctic warming of 15.3-19.7°C, and mean regional precipitation increases and decreases by more than a factor of four, in response to 5Eg

Prevalence and incidence of postharvest diseases of blueberries in California

Science.gov (United States)

Recent establishment of low-chill southern highbush blueberry cultivars in California’s warm climate has significantly increased the acreage of blueberry production in the Central Valley of California, which is now a major southern highbush blueberry production region in the United States. The vast ...

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lauretano, V.

2016-01-01

The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community

Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael A Magris

Full Text Available Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST data, integrating both observed (1985-2009 and projected (2010-2099 time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

Science.gov (United States)

de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

2014-07-01

Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

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Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

2018-03-01

As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis

This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty.

Trophic level responses differ as climate warms in Ireland

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Donnelly, Alison; Yu, Rong; Liu, Lingling

2015-08-01

Effective ecosystem functioning relies on successful species interaction. However, this delicate balance may be disrupted if species do not respond to environmental change at a similar rate. Here we examine trends in the timing of spring phenophases of groups of species occupying three trophic levels as a potential indicator of ecosystem response to climate warming in Ireland. The data sets were of varying length (1976-2009) and from varying locations: (1) timing of leaf unfolding and May Shoot of a range of broadleaf and conifer tree species, (2) first appearance dates of a range of moth species, and (3) first arrival dates of a range of spring migrant birds. All three groups revealed a statistically significant ( Pphenology that was driven by rising spring temperature ( P<0.05; 0.45 °C /decade). However, the rate of advance was greater for moths (1.8 days/year), followed by birds (0.37 days/year) and trees (0.29 days/year). In addition, the length of time between (1) moth emergence and leaf unfolding and (2) moth emergence and bird arrival decreased significantly ( P<0.05 and P<0.001, respectively), indicating a decrease in the timing between food supply and demand. These differing trophic level response rates demonstrate the potential for a mismatch in the timing of interdependent phenophases as temperatures rise. Even though these data were not specifically collected to examine climate warming impacts, we conclude that such data may be used as an early warning indicator and as a means to monitor the potential for future ecosystem disruption to occur as climate warms.

Climate impacts on human livelihoods at 1.5° and 2° of warming

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Lissner, Tabea

2017-04-01

The measurement of impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems remains challenging and especially multi-dimensional outcome measures remain scarce. Climate impacts can directly affect many dimensions of human livelihoods, which cannot be addressed by monetary assessments alone. Multi-dimensional measures are essential in order to understand the full range of consequences of climate change and to understand the costs that higher levels of warming may have, not only in economic terms, but also in terms of non-market impacts on human livelihood. The AHEAD framework aims at measuring "Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development" in a multi-dimensional framework, allowing to focus on resources and conditions which are a requirement to attain well-being. In this contribution we build on previous implementations of AHEAD and focus on differences in climate impacts at 1.5° and 2° of warming in order to improve our understanding of the societal consequences of these different warming levels.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

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Kinney, Patrick L; Schwartz, Joel; Pascal, Mathilde; Petkova, Elisaveta; Tertre, Alain Le; Medina, Sylvia; Vautard, Robert

2015-06-01

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Soil microbial responses to climate warming in Northern Andean alpine ecosystems

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Gallery, R. E.; Lasso, E.

2017-12-01

The historically cooler temperatures and waterlogged soils of tropical alpine grasslands (páramo) have resulted in low decomposition rates and a large buildup of organic matter, making páramo one of the most important carbon sinks in tropical biomes. The climatic factors that favored the carbon accumulation are changing, and as a result páramo could play a disproportionate role in driving climate feedbacks through increased carbon released from these large soil carbon stores. Open top chamber warming experiments were established in the Colombian Andes in 2016 to quantify the magnitude of climate change on carbon balance and identify microbial and plant traits that regulate these impacts. Two focal sites differ in mean annual temperature, precipitation, and plant community richness. Heterotrophic respiration (RH,) was measured from soil cores incubated at temperatures representing current and projected warming. The warming effect on RH was sensitive to soil moisture, which could reflect shifts in microbial community composition and/or extracellular enzyme production or efficiency as soils dry. Bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities in ambient and warmed plots were measured through high-throughput amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA and ITS1 rRNA gene regions. Communities showed strong spatial structuring both within and among páramo, reflecting the topographic heterogeneity of these ecosystems. Significant differences in relative abundance of dominant microbial taxa between páramo could be largely explained by soil bulk density, water holding capacity, and non-vascular plant cover. Phototrophs common to anoxic soils (e.g., Rhodospirillaceae, Hyphomicrobiaceae) were abundant. Taxa within Euryarchaeota were recovered, suggesting methanogenesis potential. Exploration of the magnitude and temperature sensitivity of methane flux is needed in these seasonally anoxic soils whose dynamics could have significant implications for the global climate system.

The Effect of Urban Heat Island on Climate Warming in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunfang Huang

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The Yangtze River Delta (YRD has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic economic development since 1978 and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration (YRDUA has been one of the three largest urban agglomerations in China. We present evidence of a significant urban heat island (UHI effect on climate warming based on an analysis of the impacts of the urbanization rate, urban population, and land use changes on the warming rate of the daily average, minimal (nighttime and maximal (daytime air temperature in the YRDUA using 41 meteorological stations observation data. The effect of the UHI on climate warming shows a large spatial variability. The average warming rates of average air temperature of huge cities, megalopolises, large cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities are 0.483, 0.314 ± 0.030, 0.282 ± 0.042, 0.225 ± 0.044 and 0.179 ± 0.046 °C/decade during the period of 1957–2013, respectively. The average warming rates of huge cities and megalopolises are significantly higher than those of medium-sized cities and small cities, indicating that the UHI has a significant effect on climate warming (t-test, p < 0.05. Significantly positive correlations are found between the urbanization rate, population, built-up area and warming rate of average air temperature (p < 0.001. The average warming rate of average air temperature attributable to urbanization is 0.124 ± 0.074 °C/decade in the YRDUA. Urbanization has a measurable effect on the observed climate warming in the YRD aggravating the global climate warming.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

Science.gov (United States)

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Neelin, J David; Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N; Bernstein, Diana N

2017-02-07

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff.

Global warming precipitation accumulation increases above the current-climate cutoff scale

Science.gov (United States)

Sahany, Sandeep; Stechmann, Samuel N.; Bernstein, Diana N.

2017-01-01

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, can be affected by both intensity and duration of the storm event. Thus, although precipitation intensity is widely projected to increase under global warming, a clear framework for predicting accumulation changes has been lacking, despite the importance of accumulations for societal impacts. Theory for changes in the probability density function (pdf) of precipitation accumulations is presented with an evaluation of these changes in global climate model simulations. We show that a simple set of conditions implies roughly exponential increases in the frequency of the very largest accumulations above a physical cutoff scale, increasing with event size. The pdf exhibits an approximately power-law range where probability density drops slowly with each order of magnitude size increase, up to a cutoff at large accumulations that limits the largest events experienced in current climate. The theory predicts that the cutoff scale, controlled by the interplay of moisture convergence variance and precipitation loss, tends to increase under global warming. Thus, precisely the large accumulations above the cutoff that are currently rare will exhibit increases in the warmer climate as this cutoff is extended. This indeed occurs in the full climate model, with a 3 °C end-of-century global-average warming yielding regional increases of hundreds of percent to >1,000% in the probability density of the largest accumulations that have historical precedents. The probabilities of unprecedented accumulations are also consistent with the extension of the cutoff. PMID:28115693

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Are treelines advancing? A global meta-analysis of treeline response to climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Harsch, Melanie A; Hulme, Philip E; McGlone, Matt S; Duncan, Richard P

2009-10-01

Treelines are temperature sensitive transition zones that are expected to respond to climate warming by advancing beyond their current position. Response to climate warming over the last century, however, has been mixed, with some treelines showing evidence of recruitment at higher altitudes and/or latitudes (advance) whereas others reveal no marked change in the upper limit of tree establishment. To explore this variation, we analysed a global dataset of 166 sites for which treeline dynamics had been recorded since 1900 AD. Advance was recorded at 52% of sites with only 1% reporting treeline recession. Treelines that experienced strong winter warming were more likely to have advanced, and treelines with a diffuse form were more likely to have advanced than those with an abrupt or krummholz form. Diffuse treelines may be more responsive to warming because they are more strongly growth limited, whereas other treeline forms may be subject to additional constraints.

Experimental warming decreases arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization in prairie plants along a Mediterranean climate gradient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannah Wilson

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF provide numerous services to their plant symbionts. Understanding climate change effects on AMF, and the resulting plant responses, is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses at regional and global scales. We investigated how the effects of climate change on AMF-plant symbioses are mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics. Methods: We used a combination of a greenhouse experiment and a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a Mediterranean climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA to examine this question. Structural equation modeling (SEM was used to determine the direct and indirect effects of experimental warming on AMF colonization. Results: Warming directly decreased AMF colonization across plant species and across the climate gradient of the study region. Other positive and negative indirect effects of warming, mediated by soil water availability, soil nutrient availability, and vegetation dynamics, canceled each other out. Discussion: A warming-induced decrease in AMF colonization would likely have substantial consequences for plant communities and ecosystem function. Moreover, predicted increases in more intense droughts and heavier rains for this region could shift the balance among indirect causal pathways, and either exacerbate or mitigate the negative, direct effect of increased temperature on AMF colonization.

Climatically related millennial-scale fluctuations in strength of California margin oxygen-minimum zone during the past 60 k.y.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cannariato, K.G.; Kennett, J.P.

1999-11-01

A strong oxygen-minimum zone (OMZ) currently exists along the California margin because of a combination of high surface-water productivity and poor intermediate-water ventilation. However, the strength of this OMZ may have been sensitive to late Quaternary ocean-circulation and productivity changes along the margin. Although sediment-lamination strength has been used to trace ocean-oxygenation changes in the past, oxygen levels on the open margin are not sufficiently low for laminations to form. In these regions, benthic foraminifera are highly sensitive monitors of OMZ strength, and their fossil assemblages can be used to reconstruct past fluctuations. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1017, off Point Conception, exhibit major and rapid faunal oscillations in response to late Quaternary millennial-scale climate change (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles) on the open central California margin. These faunal oscillations can be correlated to and are apparently synchronous with those reported from Santa Barbara Basin. Together they represent major fluctuations in the strength of the OMZ which were intimately associated with global climate change--weakening, perhaps disappearing, during cool periods and strengthening during warm periods. These rapid, major OMZ strength fluctuations were apparently widespread on the Northeast Pacific margin and must have influenced the evolution of margin biota and altered biogeochemical cycles with potential feedbacks to global climate change.

Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

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Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

2010-12-01

The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

Science.gov (United States)

Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

Pareto-Optimal Estimates of California Precipitation Change

Science.gov (United States)

Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David

2017-12-01

In seeking constraints on global climate model projections under global warming, one commonly finds that different subsets of models perform well under different objective functions, and these trade-offs are difficult to weigh. Here a multiobjective approach is applied to a large set of subensembles generated from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 ensemble. We use observations and reanalyses to constrain tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, upper level zonal winds in the midlatitude Pacific, and California precipitation. An evolutionary algorithm identifies the set of Pareto-optimal subensembles across these three measures, and these subensembles are used to constrain end-of-century California wet season precipitation change. This methodology narrows the range of projections throughout California, increasing confidence in estimates of positive mean precipitation change. Finally, we show how this technique complements and generalizes emergent constraint approaches for restricting uncertainty in end-of-century projections within multimodel ensembles using multiple criteria for observational constraints.

Life on a warmer earth: Possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. Executive report 3

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flohn, H

1981-01-01

This Executive Report derives from IIASA Research Report RR-80-30, Possible Climatic Consequences of a Man-Made Global Warming, by H. Flohn and published separately. It is based on research undertaken to explore the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic; it provides insight into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. The purpose of this report is to put the research findings into layman's language and add related information to provide a general introduction to the global warming problem. Information is presented under the following chapter titles: the scenario in brief; the climatic system; changes in ice cover; changes in atmosphere and oceans; man's effect on climate; taking the earth's temperature; what a hotter earth might mean; beyond immediate prospects; and, today's mixed signals. (JGB)

What's in a name? Commonalities and differences in public understanding of "climate change" and "global warming"

OpenAIRE

Whitmarsh, Lorraine E.

2009-01-01

This paper reports on findings from a survey of public understanding of climate change and global warming amongst residents in the south of England. Whereas much previous research has relied on survey checklists to measure public understanding of climate change, this study employed a more qualitative approach to reveal participants' unprompted conceptions of climate change and global warming. Overall, the findings show a tendency for the public to dissociate themselves from the causes, impact...

Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture. Will warming be harmful?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleischer, Aliza; Lichtman, Ivgenia [Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem (Israel); Mendelsohn, Robert [Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut (United States)

2008-04-15

This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. (author)

Climate change, irrigation, and Israeli agriculture. Will warming be harmful?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleischer, Aliza; Lichtman, Ivgenia; Mendelsohn, Robert

2008-01-01

This paper utilizes a Ricardian model to test the relationship between annual net revenues and climate across Israeli farms. The study finds that it is important to include the amount of irrigation water available to each farm in order to measure the response of farms to climate. With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts climate change is strictly beneficial. However, with water included, the model predicts that only modest climate changes are beneficial while drastic climate change in the long run will be harmful. Using the AOGCM Scenarios we show that farm net revenue is expected to increase. Although Israel has a relatively warm climate a mild increase in temperature is beneficial due to the ability to supply international markets with farm product early in the season. (author)

Building Material Preferences in Warm-Humid and Hot-Dry Climates ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

dry climates in Ghana. Using a combination of closed and open-ended questionnaires, a total of 1281 participants (473 adults and 808 youth) were recruited in Ghana in a two-month survey in Kumasi and Tamale representing the warm-humid ...

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Aligning California's Transportation Funding with Its Climate Policies

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-01

California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. At the same time, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for GHG reduction and climate action in its practices for allo...

Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yanluan; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Minghua; Xie, Yuanyu; Xue, Wei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2017-10-12

Climate models show a conspicuous summer warm and dry bias over the central United States. Using results from 19 climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we report a persistent dependence of warm bias on dry bias with the precipitation deficit leading the warm bias over this region. The precipitation deficit is associated with the widespread failure of models in capturing strong rainfall events in summer over the central U.S. A robust linear relationship between the projected warming and the present-day warm bias enables us to empirically correct future temperature projections. By the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario, the corrections substantially narrow the intermodel spread of the projections and reduce the projected temperature by 2.5 K, resulting mainly from the removal of the warm bias. Instead of a sharp decrease, after this correction the projected precipitation is nearly neutral for all scenarios.Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models and after applying a correction, projected precipitation in this region shows no significant changes.

Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets

Science.gov (United States)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto

2018-05-01

Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 °C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

ENSO related decadal scale climate variability from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brijker, J.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Bickert, T.; Kroon, D.

2006-01-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatic phenomenon that affects socio-economical welfare in vast areas in the world. A continuous record of Holocene ENSO related climate variability of the Indo-Pacific Warm pool (IPWP) is constructed on the basis of stable oxygen isotopes in shells of

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2008-04-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Water runoff vs modern climatic warming in mountainous cryolithic zone in North-East Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Glotov, V. E.; Glotova, L. P.

2018-01-01

The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some

Warming impact on energy use of HVAC system in buildings of different thermal qualities and in different climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharseh, Mohamad; Altorkmany, Lobna; Al-Khawaj, Mohammed; Hassani, Ferri

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Improving TQBE reduces heating load, while it might increase cooling load. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC varies from one climate to another. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC depends on building’s thermal quality. • In mild climate, warming does not have a significant impact on energy use of HVAC. - Abstract: In order to combat climate change, energy use in the building must be further reduced. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in residential buildings account for considerable fraction of global energy consumption. The potential contribution the domestic sector can make in reducing energy consumption is recognized worldwide. The driving energy of HVACs depends on the thermal quality of the building envelope (TQBE) and outside temperature. Definitely, building regulations are changing with the time toward reduce the thermal loads of buildings. However, most of the existing residential buildings were built to lower TQBE. For instant, 72% of residential dwellings in the 15-EU were built before 1972. To investigate the impact of warming on driving energy of HVACs of a residential building a computer model was developed. Three climate categories/cities were considered, i.e. Stockholm (cold), Istanbul (mild), and Doha (hot). In each city, two buildings were modeled: one was assumed to be built according to the current local buildings regulations (standard TQBE), while the anther was built to lower TQBE. The simulations were run for present and future (in 2050) outdoor designing conditions. The calculations show that the impact of the warming on annual driving energy of HVACs (reduction or increase) depends very much on the climate category and on the TQBE. Based on the climate and TQBE, the change in annual HVACs energy varies from −7.4% (in cold climate) to 12.7% (in hot climate). In mild climate, it was shown that the warming does not have significant impact on annual HVACs energy. Improving the TQBE can

Energy analysis of alternative CO2 refrigeration system configurations for retail food applications in moderate and warm climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsamos, K.M.; Ge, Y.T.; Santosa, IDewa; Tassou, S.A.; Bianchi, G.; Mylona, Z.

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Alternative CO 2 refrigeration technologies are compared for temperate and warm climates. • The CO 2 booster system with parallel compression was found to be the most energy efficient system. • Parallel compression can offer efficiency advantages of 3.6% in moderate and 5.0% in warm climates. • Parallel compression in booster CO 2 systems is economically attractive in warm climates. - Abstract: Refrigeration systems are crucial in retail food stores to ensure appropriate merchandising of food products. This paper compares four different CO 2 refrigeration system configurations in terms of cooling performance, environmental impact, power consumption and annual running costs. The systems studied were the conventional booster refrigeration system with gas bypass (reference system), the all CO 2 cascade system with gas bypass, a booster system with a gas bypass compressor, and integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor. The weather conditions of London, UK, and Athens, Greece, were used for the modelling of energy consumption and environmental impacts to represent moderate and warm climatic conditions respectively. The control strategies for the refrigeration systems were derived from experimental tests in the laboratory on a conventional booster refrigeration system. The results from the analysis showed that the CO 2 booster system with gas bypass compressor can provide best performance with 5.0% energy savings for the warm climate and 3.65% for the moderate climate, followed by the integrated cascade all CO 2 system with gas bypass compressor, with 3.6% and 2.1% savings over the reference system for the warm and moderate climates respectively.

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

Science.gov (United States)

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AMERICA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PATRICK PATERSON

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Global warming presents one of the most serious threats to South American nations. Countries in the region are at risk of a variety of climate change related problems: rising sea levels, diminishing potable water supplies, forest res, intense storms and ooding, heat waves and the spread of diseases. These disasters are occurring more frequently in the region and will likely increase in intensity also. The armed forces in the region are the only government departments with both the capacity and the manpower to respond to these massive catastrophes. Military support to civilian authorities will be required more frequently and under more severe conditions as climate change conditions worsen.

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

2017-09-01

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vegetation exerts a greater control on litter decomposition than climate warming in peatlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Susan E; Orwin, Kate H; Ostle, Nicholas J; Briones, J I; Thomson, Bruce C; Griffiths, Robert I; Oakley, Simon; Quirk, Helen; Bardget, Richard D

2015-01-01

Historically, slow decomposition rates have resulted in the accumulation of large amounts of carbon in northern peatlands. Both climate warming and vegetation change can alter rates of decomposition, and hence affect rates of atmospheric CO2 exchange, with consequences for climate change feedbacks. Although warming and vegetation change are happening concurrently, little is known about their relative and interactive effects on decomposition processes. To test the effects of warming and vegetation change on decomposition rates, we placed litter of three dominant species (Calluna vulgaris, Eriophorum vaginatum, Hypnum jutlandicum) into a peatland field experiment that combined warming.with plant functional group removals, and measured mass loss over two years. To identify potential mechanisms behind effects, we also measured nutrient cycling and soil biota. We found that plant functional group removals exerted a stronger control over short-term litter decomposition than did approximately 1 degrees C warming, and that the plant removal effect depended on litter species identity. Specifically, rates of litter decomposition were faster when shrubs were removed from the plant community, and these effects were strongest for graminoid and bryophyte litter. Plant functional group removals also had strong effects on soil biota and nutrient cycling associated with decomposition, whereby shrub removal had cascading effects on soil fungal community composition, increased enchytraeid abundance, and increased rates of N mineralization. Our findings demonstrate that, in addition to litter quality, changes in vegetation composition play a significant role in regulating short-term litter decomposition and belowground communities in peatland, and that these impacts can be greater than moderate warming effects. Our findings, albeit from a relatively short-term study, highlight the need to consider both vegetation change and its impacts below ground alongside climatic effects when

Climate change and the invasion of California by grasses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandel, Brody Steven; Dangremond, Emily

2012-01-01

Over the next century, changes in the global climate are expected to have major consequences for plant communities, possibly including the exacerbation of species invasions. We evaluated this possibility in the grass flora of California, which is economically and ecologically important and heavily...... invaded. We used a novel, trait-based approach involving two components: identifying differences in trait composition between native and exotic components of the grass flora and evaluating contemporary trait–climate relationships across the state. The combination of trait–climate relationships and trait...

Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, Kevin; Zhang, Tingjun; Barrett, Andrew P. (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder (United States)), e-mail: kevin.schaefer@nsidc.org; Bruhwiler, Lori (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder (United States))

2011-04-15

The thaw and release of carbon currently frozen in permafrost will increase atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) on climate.We use surface weather from three global climate models based on the moderate warming, A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenario and the SiBCASA land surface model to estimate the strength and timing of the PCF and associated uncertainty. By 2200, we predict a 29-59% decrease in permafrost area and a 53-97 cm increase in active layer thickness. By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 +- 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid-2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42-88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration

Anthropogenic flank attack on polar bears: Interacting consequences of climate warming and pollutant exposure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bjørn Munro Jenssen

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Polar bears (Ursus maritimus are subjected to several anthropogenic threats, climate warming and exposure to pollutants being two of these. For polar bears, one of the main effects of climate warming is limited access to prey, due to loss of their sea ice habitat. This will result in prolonged fasting periods and emaciation and condition related negative effects on survival and reproduction success. Prolonged fasting will result in increases of the tissue concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs in polar bears, and thus increase the probability for POP levels to exceed threshold levels for effects on health, and thus on reproductive success and survival. There are clear potentials for interactions between impacts of climate warming and impacts of pollutant exposure on polar bears. It is likely that that fasting-induced increases of POPs will add to mortality rates and decrease reproductive success beyond effects caused by loss of habitat alone. However, there is a lack of studies that have addressed this. Thus, there is a need to focus on population effects of POP exposure in polar bears, and to consider such effects in relation to the effects of climate induced habitat loss.

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Piontek, Franziska; Mueller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Clark, Douglas B.; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; deJesusColonGonzalez, Felipe; Floerke, Martina; Folberth, Christian; Franssen, Wietse;

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Science.gov (United States)

Irena F. Creed; Adam T. Spargo; Julia A. Jones; Jim M. Buttle; Mary B. Adams; Fred D. Beall; Eric G. Booth; John L. Campbell; Dave Clow; Kelly Elder; Mark B. Green; Nancy B. Grimm; Chelcy Miniat; Patricia Ramlal; Amartya Saha; Stephen Sebestyen; Dave Spittlehouse; Shannon Sterling; Mark W. Williams; Rita Winkler; Huaxia. Yao

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary.We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm...

Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

Science.gov (United States)

Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

2012-05-01

Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

Using eddy geopotential height to measure the western North Pacific subtropical high in a warming climate

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chao; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Li, Chunhui; Zheng, Bin; Wu, Bo; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-01-01

The western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) is crucial to the East Asian summer climate, and geopotential height ( H) is widely used to measure the WPNSH. However, a rapidly rising trend of H in the future is projected by the models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Diagnoses based on the hypsometric equation suggest that more than 80% of the rise in H are attributable to zonal uniform warming. Because circulation is determined by the gradient of H rather than its absolute magnitude, the spatially uniform rising trend of H gives rise to difficulties when measuring the WNPSH with H. These difficulties include an invalid western boundary of WNPSH in the future and spurious information regarding long-term trends and interannual variability of WNPSH. Using CMIP5 model simulations and reanalysis data, the applicability of a metric based on eddy geopotential height ( H e ) to the warming climate is investigated. The results show that the H e metric outperforms the H metric under warming climate conditions. First, the mean state rainfall- H e relationship is more robust than the rainfall- H relationship. Second, the area, intensity, and western boundary indices of WNPSH can be effectively defined by the H e = 0-m contour in future warming climate scenarios without spurious trends. Third, the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is more closely related to the H e -based WNPSH indices. We recommend that the H e metric be adopted as an operational metric on the WNPSH under the current warming climate.

A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

2012-04-15

Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Donnelly, Chantal; Greuell, Wouter; Andersson, Jafet; Gerten, Dieter; Pisacane, Giovanna; Roudier, Philippe; Ludwig, Fulco

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate

Quasi-decadal Oscillation in the CMIP5 and CMIP3 Climate Model Simulations: California Case

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Reyes, E.; Chung, F. I.

2014-12-01

The ongoing three drought years in California are reminding us of two other historical long drought periods: 1987-1992 and 1928-1934. This kind of interannual variability is corresponding to the dominating 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in precipitation and streamflow in California. When using global climate model projections to assess the climate change impact on water resources planning in California, it is natural to ask if global climate models are able to reproduce the observed interannual variability like 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation. Further spectral analysis to tree ring retrieved precipitation and historical precipitation record proves the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in California. But while implementing spectral analysis to all the CMIP5 and CMIP3 global climate model historical simulations using wavelet analysis approach, it was found that only two models in CMIP3 , CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI and NCAP PCM1.0, and only two models in CMIP5, MIROC5 and CESM1-WACCM, have statistically significant 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillations in California. More interesting, the existence of 7-15 yr quasi-decadal oscillation in the global climate model simulation is also sensitive to initial conditions. 12-13 yr quasi-decadal oscillation occurs in one ensemble run of CGCM 2.3.2a of MRI but does not exist in the other four ensemble runs.

Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

2015-12-01

Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yang; Leung, L Ruby; Lu, Jian; Masato, Giacomo

2015-01-01

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North America, but the percentage change is consistently smaller from western Canada to the upper mid-western US with historically more frequent CAO. By decomposing the changes of the probability density function of daily surface temperature into changes due to mean warming and changes in standard deviation (std) and skewness/higher order moments, the contributions of each factor to CAO changes are quantified. Results show that CAO changes can be explained largely by the mean warming, but the decrease in temperature std contributes to about 20% reduction of CAO from Alaska to northeastern US and eastern Canada possibly due to the Arctic amplification and weakening of storm track. A thermodynamical modulation of the skewness called the ‘0 °C mode’ effect is found to operate prominently along the 0 °C isotherm hemispherically and reduce CAO in western and northeastern US with winter snow cover by up to 10%. This effect also produces a manifold increase in CAO events over the Arctic sea ice. An increased frequency in atmospheric blocking also contributes to increases in CAO duration over Alaska and the Arctic region. Regional simulations revealed more contributions of existing snowpack to CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern US, and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern US, the top five most extreme CAO events may still occur, and wind chill will continue to have societal impacts in that region. (letter)

Sediment fluxes from California Coastal Rivers: the influences of climate, geology, and topography

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, E.D.; Antweiler, Ronald C.

2012-01-01

The influences of geologic and climatic factors on erosion and sedimentation processes in rivers draining the western flank of the California Coast Range are assessed. Annual suspended, bedload, and total sediment fluxes were determined for 16 river basins that have hydrologic records covering all or most of the period from 1950 to 2006 and have been relatively unaffected by flow storage, regulation, and depletion, which alter the downstream movement of water and sediment. The occurrence of relatively large annual sediment fluxes are strongly influenced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The frequency of relatively large annual sediment fluxes decreases from north to south during La Nina phases and increases from north to south during El Nino phases. The influence of ENSO is modulated over a period of decades by the PDO, such that relatively large annual sediment fluxes are more frequent during a La Nina phase in conjunction with a cool PDO and during an El Nino phase in conjunction with a warm PDO. Values of mean annual sediment flux, , were regressed against basin and climatic characteristics. Basin area, bedrock erodibility, basin relief, and precipitation explain 87% of the variation in from the 16 river basins. Bedrock erodibility is the most significant characteristic influencing . Basin relief is a superior predictor of compared with basin slope. is nearly proportional to basin area and increases with increasing precipitation. For a given percentage change, basin relief has a 2.3-fold greater effect on than a similar change in precipitation. The estimated natural from all California coastal rivers for the period 1950–2006 would have been approximately 85 million tons without flow storage, regulation, and depletion; the actual has been approximately 50 million tons, because of the effects of flow storage, regulation, and depletion.

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

Science.gov (United States)

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Climatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire.

Science.gov (United States)

Camac, James S; Williams, Richard J; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Hoffmann, Ary A; Vesk, Peter A

2017-08-01

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity and woody plant encroachment in arctic and alpine landscapes. However, the extent to which these increases interact to affect the structure, function and composition of alpine ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we use field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine how warming and fire affect recruitment, seedling growth and seedling survival in four dominant Australian alpine shrubs. We found that fire increased establishment of shrub seedlings by as much as 33-fold. Experimental warming also doubled growth rates of tall shrub seedlings and could potentially increase their survival. By contrast, warming had no effect on shrub recruitment, postfire tussock regeneration, or how tussock grass affected shrub seedling growth and survival. These findings indicate that warming, coupled with more frequent or severe fires, will likely result in an increase in the cover and abundance of evergreen shrubs. Given that shrubs are one of the most flammable components in alpine and tundra environments, warming is likely to strengthen an existing feedback between woody species abundance and fire in these ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance

Science.gov (United States)

S. He Hong; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson

2002-01-01

We examined tree species responses under forest harvesting and an increased fire disturbance scenario due to climate warming in northern Wisconsin where northern hardwood and boreal forests are currently predominant. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was simulated with a gap model, which integrates soil, climate and species data, stratified by...

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to

Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

Science.gov (United States)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative

Ichthyoplankton Time Series: A Potential Ocean Observing Network to Provide Indicators of Climate Impacts on Fish Communities along the West Coast of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Koslow, J. A.; Brodeur, R.; Duffy-Anderson, J. T.; Perry, I.; jimenez Rosenberg, S.; Aceves, G.

2016-02-01

Ichthyoplankton time series available from the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska and California Current (Oregon to Baja California) provide a potential ocean observing network to assess climate impacts on fish communities along the west coast of North America. Larval fish abundance reflects spawning stock biomass, so these data sets provide indicators of the status of a broad range of exploited and unexploited fish populations. Analyses to date have focused on individual time series, which generally exhibit significant change in relation to climate. Off California, a suite of 24 midwater fish taxa have declined > 60%, correlated with declining midwater oxygen concentrations, and overall larval fish abundance has declined 72% since 1969, a trend based on the decline of predominantly cool-water affinity taxa in response to warming ocean temperatures. Off Oregon, there were dramatic differences in community structure and abundance of larval fishes between warm and cool ocean conditions. Midwater deoxygenation and warming sea surface temperature trends are predicted to continue as a result of global climate change. US, Canadian, and Mexican fishery scientists are now collaborating in a virtual ocean observing network to synthesize available ichthyoplankton time series and compare patterns of change in relation to climate. This will provide regional indicators of populations and groups of taxa sensitive to warming, deoxygenation and potentially other stressors, establish the relevant scales of coherence among sub-regions and across Large Marine Ecosystems, and provide the basis for predicting future climate change impacts on these ecosystems.

Seventh Grade Students' Conceptions of Global Warming and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Choi, Soyoung; Charusombat, Umarporn

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate seventh grade students' conceptions of global warming and climate change. The study was descriptive in nature and involved the collection of qualitative data from 91 seventh grade students from three different schools in the Midwest, USA. An open response and draw and explain assessment instrument was…

Using observed warming to identify hazards to Mozambique maize production

Science.gov (United States)

Funk, Christopher C.; Harrison, Laura; Eilerts, Gary

2011-01-01

New Perspectives on Crop Yield Constraints because of Climate Change. Climate change impact assessments usually focus on changes to precipitation because most global food production is from rainfed cropping systems; however, other aspects of climate change may affect crop growth and potential yields.A recent (2011) study by the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) Climate Hazards Group, determined that climate change may be affecting Mozambique's primary food crop in a usually overlooked, but potentially significant way (Harrison and others, 2011). The study focused on the direct relation between maize crop development and growing season temperature. It determined that warming during the past three decades in Mozambique may be causing more frequent crop stress and yield reductions in that country's maize crop, independent of any changes occurring in rainfall. This report summarizes the findings and conclusions of that study.

Ethical choices and global climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dotto, L

1994-01-01

The ethical implications of global warming are discussed, and a summary is presented of a study on ethics and climate change. Deciding the 'best' approaches depends on point of view, whether this be of a Canadian, a Somali, great grandchildren, the Amazon rain forest or a kangaroo. The spectrum of possible actions runs from avoidance to adaptation. Avoidance focuses on strategies to reduce the greenhouse effect by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions or preventing these emissions from reaching the atmosphere. Adaptation strategies help to cope with the negative consequences of allowing emissions to continue. Philosophers and ethicists have expressed a wide range of opinions on the consequences, responsibilities, limitations, and legal mechanisms involved in determining global warming action. A profound shift in corporate thinking is called for, with less emphasis on short-term bottom line. The role of governments and other institutions is debated, and questions are raised about the economic strategies that will best protect the interests of future generations. Energy efficiency and conservation must be reflected in the economic equation. Public cynicism with regard to political leaders is such that they are unlikely to credited with any degree of ethical motivation, a view that may be unwarranted. Ethical principles must become more central in the formulation of policies.

The greenhouse effect and climate warming up

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leygonie, R.

1992-01-01

The present article is a follow-up to a previous article, under the same title, which describes the scientific bases of the greenhouse effect and the prospect, based on climatic global models, of a potential climate warming up. The conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, August 1990) were summarized, predicting a mean global temperature increase between 2.4 and 5.1 deg C in 2070, among other changes. The recent IPCC work confirms 1990 conclusions but states that the decline of ozone in the lower stratosphere could neutralize the radiative forcing of chlorofluorocarbons. At least ten more years of investigation are needed to ascertain an increase of the greenhouse effect. Information is given on recent events which may be connected with the global climate problem, in particular the spectacular eruption of the Pinatubo volcano, in mid 1991, cause of a probable cooling of the atmosphere and a potential decrease of radiative forcing due to anthropogenic dioxide emissions. The most important recent events in the political field is a directive proposal by the European Commission aimed at a taxation of both energy in general and of carbon dioxide emissions by fossil fuels. Another event is the United Nations Convention on climate change, signed by 155 countries at the Rio de Janeiro Conference on Environment and Development, which pledges signatories to decrease their greenhouse gas - emissions but no figures are given on percentages and calendar of reduction. At last, a short chapter is devoted to the French ECLAT programme on climate change which consists both in participating in world programmes and in performing original investigations by French Scientists

Global climate change and California's natural ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Botkin, D.B.; Nisbet, R.A.; Woodhouse, C.; Ferren, W.; Bicknell, S.; Bentley, B.

1991-01-01

If projections of global climate models are correct, the natural ecosystems of California might undergo major changes during the next century. Such changes might include large economic losses in timber, fisheries, and recreation; major changes in our national and state parks and forests and in our nature preserves and conservation areas; increase in extinction of endangered species; loss of large areas of existing habitats; and development of new habitats whose location and areal extent can only be surmised. Many areas currently set aside for the conservation of specific ecosystems might no longer be suitable to them. Yet, in spite of the potential seriousness of these problems, which could dwarf all other environmental changes, California is at present in a poor situation to project what the effects of global change on its natural ecosystems might be

The long-term fate of permafrost peatlands under rapid climate warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Swindles, Graeme T.; Morris, Paul J.; Mullan, Donal

2015-01-01

Permafrost peatlands contain globally important amounts of soil organic carbon, owing to cold conditions which suppress anaerobic decomposition. However, climate warming and permafrost thaw threaten the stability of this carbon store. The ultimate fate of permafrost peatlands and their carbon...... stores is unclear because of complex feedbacks between peat accumulation, hydrology and vegetation. Field monitoring campaigns only span the last few decades and therefore provide an incomplete picture of permafrost peatland response to recent rapid warming. Here we use a high-resolution palaeoecological...... approach to understand the longer-term response of peatlands in contrasting states of permafrost degradation to recent rapid warming. At all sites we identify a drying trend until the late-twentieth century; however, two sites subsequently experienced a rapid shift to wetter conditions as permafrost thawed...

Improving the effectiveness of communication about climate science: Insights from the "Global Warming's Six Americas" audience segmentation research project

Science.gov (United States)

Maibach, E.; Roser-Renouf, C.

2011-12-01

That the climate science community has not been entirely effective in sharing what it knows about climate change with the broader public - and with policy makers and organizations that should be considering climate change when making decisions - is obvious. Our research shows that a large majority of the American public trusts scientists (76%) and science-based agencies (e.g., 76% trust NOAA) as sources of information about climate change. Yet, despite the widespread agreement in the climate science community that the climate is changing as a result of human activity, only 64% of the public understand that the world's average temperature has been increasing (and only about half of them are sure), less than half (47%) understand that the warming is caused mostly by human activity, and only 39% understand that most scientists think global warming is happening (in fact, only 13% understand that the large majority of climate scientists think global warming is happening). Less obvious is what the climate science community should do to become more effective in sharing what it knows. In this paper, we will use evidence from our "Global Warming's Six Americas" audience segmentation research project to suggest ways that individual climate scientists -- and perhaps more importantly, ways in which climate science agencies and professional societies -- can enhance the effectiveness of their communication efforts. We will conclude by challenging members of the climate science community to identify and convey "simple, clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted sources" - an approach to communication repeatedly shown to be effective by the public health community.

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-03-29

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Global warming-setting the stages

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-01-01

Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

Potential change in forest types and stand heights in central Siberia in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E I; Korets, M A; Conard, S G

2016-01-01

Previous regional studies in Siberia have demonstrated climate warming and associated changes in distribution of vegetation and forest types, starting at the end of the 20th century. In this study we used two regional bioclimatic envelope models to simulate potential changes in forest types distribution and developed new regression models to simulate changes in stand height in tablelands and southern mountains of central Siberia under warming 21st century climate. Stand height models were based on forest inventory data (2850 plots). The forest type and stand height maps were superimposed to identify how heights would change in different forest types in future climates. Climate projections from the general circulation model Hadley HadCM3 for emission scenarios B1 and A2 for 2080s were paired with the regional bioclimatic models. Under the harsh A2 scenario, simulated changes included: a 80%–90% decrease in forest-tundra and tundra, a 30% decrease in forest area, a ∼400% increase in forest-steppe, and a 2200% increase in steppe, forest-steppe and steppe would cover 55% of central Siberia. Under sufficiently moist conditions, the southern and middle taiga were simulated to benefit from 21st century climate warming. Habitats suitable for highly-productive forests (≥30–40 m stand height) were simulated to increase at the expense of less productive forests (10–20 m). In response to the more extreme A2 climate the area of these highly-productive forests would increase 10%–25%. Stand height increases of 10 m were simulated over 35%–50% of the current forest area in central Siberia. In the extremely warm A2 climate scenario, the tall trees (25–30 m) would occur over 8%–12% of area in all forest types except forest-tundra by the end of the century. In forest-steppe, trees of 30–40 m may cover some 15% of the area under sufficient moisture. (letter)

Global warming: Design of a flow-through shallow lake mesocosm climate experiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liboriussen, L.; Landkildehus, F.; Meerhoff, M.

2005-01-01

design details, operating characteristics, and background information on a currently operating experimental flow-through mesocosm system that allows investigation of the interactions between simulated climate warming and eutrophication and their impacts on biological structure and ecosystem processes...

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

2018-05-01

A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food

Prediction of abundance of forest spiders according to climate warming in South Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tae-Sung Kwon

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Distribution of spiders will be changed as climate warms. Abundance of spider species was predicted nationwide in South Korea. Abundance of spiders was projected using temperature species distribution model based on a nationwide data (366 forest sites according to climate change scenario RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The model predicts that 9 out of 17 species will increase in abundance while 8 species will decrease. Based on this finding, a qualitative prediction (increase or decrease was conducted on the species with more than 1% occurrence: 68 species are expected to decrease, 9 to increase, and 8 to change a little. In pooled estimation, 76 species (75% are expected to decrease, 18 species (18% to increase, and by 8 species (8% to have little change. The projection indicates that majority of spider species will decrease, but minority of species will increase as climate warms, suggesting great increase of remained species in lowlands.

Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonathan. Thompson

2005-01-01

Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

2018-01-01

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-11-15

In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

Global Farm Animal Production and Global Warming: Impacting and Mitigating Climate Change

OpenAIRE

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-01-01

Background The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. Objectives The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. Methods We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. Discussions An a...

500-year climate cycles stacking of recent centennial warming documented in an East Asian pollen record

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Deke; Lu, Houyuan; Chu, Guoqiang; Wu, Naiqin; Shen, Caiming; Wang, Can; Mao, Limi

2014-01-01

Here we presented a high-resolution 5350-year pollen record from a maar annually laminated lake in East Asia (EA). Pollen record reflected the dynamics of vertical vegetation zones and temperature change. Spectral analysis on pollen percentages/concentrations of Pinus and Quercus, and a temperature proxy, revealed ~500-year quasi-periodic cold-warm fluctuations during the past 5350 years. This ~500-year cyclic climate change occurred in EA during the mid-late Holocene and even the last 150 years dominated by anthropogenic forcing. It was almost in phase with a ~500-year periodic change in solar activity and Greenland temperature change, suggesting that ~500-year small variations in solar output played a prominent role in the mid-late Holocene climate dynamics in EA, linked to high latitude climate system. Its last warm phase might terminate in the next several decades to enter another ~250-year cool phase, and thus this future centennial cyclic temperature minimum could partially slow down man-made global warming. PMID:24402348

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte

2016-06-30

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Climate Warming Can Increase Soil Carbon Fluxes Without Decreasing Soil Carbon Stocks in Boreal Forests

Science.gov (United States)

Ziegler, S. E.; Benner, R. H.; Billings, S. A.; Edwards, K. A.; Philben, M. J.; Zhu, X.; Laganiere, J.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem C fluxes respond positively to climate warming, however, the net impact of changing C fluxes on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks over decadal scales remains unclear. Manipulative studies and global-scale observations have informed much of the existing knowledge of SOC responses to climate, providing insights on relatively short (e.g. days to years) and long (centuries to millennia) time scales, respectively. Natural climate gradient studies capture integrated ecosystem responses to climate on decadal time scales. Here we report the soil C reservoirs, fluxes into and out of those reservoirs, and the chemical composition of inputs and soil organic matter pools along a mesic boreal forest climate transect. The sites studied consist of similar forest composition, successional stage, and soil moisture but differ by 5.2°C mean annual temperature. Carbon fluxes through these boreal forest soils were greatest in the lowest latitude regions and indicate that enhanced C inputs can offset soil C losses with warming in these forests. Respiration rates increased by 55% and the flux of dissolved organic carbon from the organic to mineral soil horizons tripled across this climate gradient. The 2-fold increase in litterfall inputs to these soils coincided with a significant increase in the organic horizon C stock with warming, however, no significant difference in the surface mineral soil C stocks was observed. The younger mean age of the mineral soil C ( 70 versus 330 YBP) provided further evidence for the greater turnover of SOC in the warmer climate soils. In spite of these differences in mean radiocarbon age, mineral SOC exhibited chemical characteristics of highly decomposed material across all regions. In contrast with depth trends in soil OM diagenetic indices, diagenetic shifts with latitude were limited to increases in C:N and alkyl to O-alkyl ratios in the overlying organic horizons in the warmer relative to the colder regions. These data indicate that the

Warm-water coral reefs and climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Spalding, Mark D; Brown, Barbara E

2015-11-13

Coral reefs are highly dynamic ecosystems that are regularly exposed to natural perturbations. Human activities have increased the range, intensity, and frequency of disturbance to reefs. Threats such as overfishing and pollution are being compounded by climate change, notably warming and ocean acidification. Elevated temperatures are driving increasingly frequent bleaching events that can lead to the loss of both coral cover and reef structural complexity. There remains considerable variability in the distribution of threats and in the ability of reefs to survive or recover from such disturbances. Without significant emissions reductions, however, the future of coral reefs is increasingly bleak. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin Coulter Riordan

Full Text Available Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS, a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast. Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change

Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; Vliet, van Michelle T.H.

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform

The Frustrating Lives of Climate Scientists - 45 Years of Warm, Cold, Wet and Dry

Science.gov (United States)

Toon, O. B.; Hartwick, V.; Urata, R. A.

2016-12-01

Mariner 9 arrived at Mars in November 1971, where it revealed giant volcanoes and dry river valleys some of which originated from rainfall or runoff. Some geologists think there were oceans, tidal waves, craters that filled to their rims and then overflowed or didn't overflow, and river deltas reaching into the ancient seas and lakes. Climate scientists have stumbled through a 45 year-long chain of failed explanations for these geologic data. CO2 in greater abundance than now is likely involved, but not sufficient. Adding CH4 , CO2 clouds, or SO2 have faltered on further study. Three ideas are still being kicked around, two of which are able to make Mars warm, but may have geologic issues. First, is the idea of adding H2 to the CO2, which warms sufficiently in climate models. However, the large quantities needed are a challenge to outgassing models. Second, is impacts, the largest of which would mobilize most of the water in the regolith. Geologists object that the water from impacts would not last long enough to carve rivers. However, no one has explored the concurrent generation of the regolith by these impacts, which would create a loose, easily erodible surface. Are the rivers all in ancient regolith? If some rivers are in bedrock it would be harder to explain by impacts. Finally, impacts may triggered water/cloud greenhouses. Such a climate state would be long lasting, requires only a modest background atmosphere of carbon dioxide, and would fade away when the carbon dioxide dropped below a few hundred mbar. However, not all climate models have been able to produce such water driven greenhouse warming. In this talk I will outline the history of these climate models, point to evidence that might discriminate between them, describe how the water greenhouse models work or don't work, and suggest some new projects that might be done to decide just how warm and wet Mars may have been.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Antonsson

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

Science.gov (United States)

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Climate changes instead of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radovanović Milan M.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

2006-12-01

Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

Life on a warmer earth: possible climatic consequences of man-made global warming. [Monograph

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1981-01-01

A summary of research conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and published by H. Flohn in 1977 updates the original data to March 1980. The work explores the interaction between energy and climate, including the impact on the global climate of three main energy sources: solar, nuclear, and fossil fuels. Its findings describe the global warming effects caused by carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels and by other trace gases released into the atmosphere. The approach is paleoclimatic in that it gains insights into what global warming will produce by considering what is known about past periods of the earth's history when the global average surface temperature was higher than it is now. Although paleoclimatic knowledge is limited, no complete model of the climatic system is available. This research uses both approaches, combining the two to some extent. 10 figures.

Impact of climate change on photochemical air pollution in Southern California

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. E. Millstein

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The effects of future climate and emissions-related perturbations on ozone air quality in Southern California are considered, with an assumed increase to 2× pre-industrial levels for global background levels of carbon dioxide. Effects of emission and climate-related forcings on air quality are superimposed on a summer 2005 high-ozone time period. Perturbations considered here include (a effect of increased temperature on atmospheric reaction rates, (b effect of increased temperature on biogenic emissions, (c effect of increased water vapor concentrations, (d effect of increased pollutant levels at the inflow (western boundary, and (e effect of population growth and technology change on emissions within Southern California. Various combinations of the above perturbations are also considered. The climate-related perturbations (a–c led to combined peak 1-h ozone increases of up to 11 ppb. The effect on ozone was greatly reduced when the temperature increase was applied mostly during nighttime hours rather than uniformly throughout the day. Increased pollutant levels at the inflow boundary also led to ozone increases up to 5 ppb. These climate and inflow-related changes offset some of the anticipated benefits of emission controls within the air basin.

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °c

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rogelj, Joeri; Elzen, Den Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte

2016-01-01

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here

Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

How warm days increase belief in global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Medical Providers as Global Warming and Climate Change Health Educators: A Health Literacy Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Villagran, Melinda; Weathers, Melinda; Keefe, Brian; Sparks, Lisa

2010-01-01

Climate change is a threat to wildlife and the environment, but it also one of the most pervasive threats to human health. The goal of this study was to examine the relationships among dimensions of health literacy, patient education about global warming and climate change (GWCC), and health behaviors. Results reveal that patients who have higher…

Investigate the plant biomass response to climate warming in permafrost ecosystem using matrix-based data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, X.; Du, Z.; Schuur, E.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Permafrost is one of the most vulnerable regions on the earth with over 40% world soil C represented in this region. Future climate warming potentially has a great impact on this region. On one hand, rising temperature accelerates permafrost soil thaw and release more C from land. On the other hand, warming may also increase the plant growing season length and therefore negatively feedback to climate change by increasing annual land C uptake. However, whether permafrost vegetation biomass change in response to warming can sequester more C has not been well understood. Manipulated air warming experiments reported that air warming has very limited impacts on grass land productivity and biomass growth in permafrost region [Mauritz et al., 2017]. It is hard to reveal the mechanisms behind the limited air warming response directly from experiment data. We employ a vegetation C cycle matrix model based on Community land model 4.5 (CLM4.5) and data assimilation technique to investigate how much do phenology and physiology processes contribute to the response respectively. Our results indicate phenology contributes the most in response to warming. The shift of vegetation parameter distributions after 2012 indicate vegetation acclimation may explain the modest response in plant biomass to air warming. The results suggest future model development need to take vegetation acclimation more seriously. The novel matrix-based model allows data assimilation to be conducted more efficiently. It provides more functional understanding of the models as well as the mechanism behind experiment data.

Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Climate warming and interannual variability of phytoplankton phenology in the Northern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Gittings, John

2016-12-01

In agreement with global patterns of climate change and increasing temperatures in the tropical oceans, the Northern Red Sea (NRS) has been warming over the last few decades. Using 18 years of remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a data (Chl-a, an index of phytoplankton biomass), we investigate the potential impacts of climate warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in the Northern Red Sea by exploring the mechanistic links with the regional physical environment. The results of the analysis reveal that, in accordance with other tropical ecosystems, phytoplankton biomass in the NRS will decrease in response to warmer climate scenarios. This is attributed to lower heat fluxes (heat loss to the atmosphere) during the bloom period, and enhanced vertical stratification, which prevents vertical mixing of nutrients into the euphotic layer. In addition, we show that during warmer conditions (when heat fluxes are weakened), the winter bloom initiates significantly later (by up to 10 weeks) and its duration is considerably reduced. The biological implications of alterations to phytoplankton phenology may include increased larval mortality of pelagic species, reduced recruitment, fisheries impacts and changes to community structure.

Peatland Carbon Dynamics in Alaska During Past Warm Climates

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Z.; Cleary, K.; Massa, C.; Hunt, S. J.; Klein, E. S.; Loisel, J.

2013-12-01

Peatlands represent a large belowground carbon (C) pool in the biosphere. However, how peatland C sequestration capacity varies with changes in climate and climate-induced disturbance is still poorly understood and debated. Here we summarize results from Alaskan peatlands to document how peat C accumulation has responded to past warm climate intervals. We find that the greatest C accumulation rates at sites from the Kenai Peninsula to the North Slope occurred during the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) in the early Holocene. This time period also corresponds with explosive formation and expansion of new peatlands on the landscape across Alaska. In addition, we note that many peatlands that existed during the earlier Holocene on the North Slope have disappeared and are presently covered by mineral soils under tundra or sandy deposits. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) around 1000-500 years ago, several peatlands in Alaska show high rates of C accumulation when compared to the period before the MCA during the Neoglacial or the following Little Ice Age period. Altogether, our results indicate that the Alaskan landscape was very different during the last 10,000 years and that peatlands can rapidly accumulate C under warm climatic conditions. We speculate that warmth-stimulated increase in plant production surpasses increase in peat decomposition during the early Holocene, and potentially also during the MCA. Other factors that might have contributed to rapid peat accumulation during the early Holocene include increased summer sunlight, lowered sea levels, and decreased sea-ice cover/duration. Summer insolation was ca. 8% higher than today during the early Holocene due to orbital variations, which likely promoted plant productivity by increasing growing seasons sunlight. Furthermore, lower sea levels and exposed shallow continental shelves in the Beaufort Sea (Arctic Ocean) would have made the present-day Arctic Coastal Plain more continental, with warmer summers

The relative role of dispersal and local interactions for alpine plant community diversity under simulated climate warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klanderud, K.; Totland, Oe. [Norwegian Univ. of Life Science, Dept. of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Aas (Norway)

2007-08-15

Most studies on factors determining diversity are conducted in temperate or warm regions, whereas studies in climatically harsh and low productivity areas, such as alpine regions, are rare. We examined the relative roles of seed availability and different biotic and abiotic factors for the diversity of an alpine plant community in southern Norway. Furthermore, because climate warming is predicted to be an important driver of alpine species diversity, we assessed how the relative impacts of dispersal and local interactions on diversity might change under experimental warming (open top chambers, OTCs). Addition of seeds from 27 regional species increased community diversity. The establishment of the species was negatively related both to the diversity of the existing system and the cover of the abundant dwarf shrub Dryas octopetala. These results show that both species dispersal limitation and local biotic interactions are important factors for alpine plant community diversity. Despite relatively harsh environmental conditions and low productivity, competition from the resident vegetation appeared to have a greater role for species establishment and diversity than facilitation and experimental warming. Higher temperature appeared to increase the negative relationship between resident species diversity and species establishment. This may suggest that climate warming can increase the role of interspecific competition for alpine plant community structure, and thus alter the long-term effects of biotic interactions on diversity. (au)

Some comments on reconstructing the historical climate of California, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mock, C.J.

2006-01-01

This paper describes some examples of historical climate reconstruction pertaining to California, USA, focusing mostly on winter climate given the expected strongest teleconnection signals for this season. Climatic data consist of early instrumental data from the US Army Surgeon General at military forts, observers of the Smithsonian Institution, the Signal Service, and some private observers. Documentary (non-instrumental) data were also used in assessing extreme events. Original daily records of these data were carefully assessed for discontinuities from examining diurnal temperature ranges and daily precipitation amounts. The climatic reconstructions conducted were as follows: 1) winter precipitation time series for selected locations since 1850, particularly for Sacramento and San Francisco, 2) winter temperature time series for selected locations since 1850, and 3) analyses of an extreme flooding event in January 1862 and a landfalling tropical cyclone of September 1939. Results indicate distinctive wetter winters for central and northern California in the late nineteenth century, and some of these wetter years correspond to well-known very strong El Ni no events. Connections to weaker El Nino and La Nina events, however, are not clearly evident. The flood of January 1862 is considered unprecedented when compared to other floods of the last 130 years. The reconstruction of a landfalling tropical cyclone for September 1939 near Los Angeles suggests its intensity at just below hurricane strength

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hameed, S; Cess, R D

1983-01-01

Most atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil, which become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of the climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is likely to increase methane concentrations within the atmosphere, possibly leading to further heating, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. Investigators explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although they found this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity that should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/.

Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B; Wang, Y; Zhu, H; Liang, E; Camarero, J J

2016-10-01

The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

2016-10-01

The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

Science.gov (United States)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

Climate warming and interannual variability of phytoplankton phenology in the Northern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Gittings, John

2016-01-01

of phytoplankton biomass), we investigate the potential impacts of climate warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in the Northern Red Sea by exploring the mechanistic links with the regional physical environment. The results of the analysis reveal that

Ocean climate indicators: A monitoring inventory and plan for tracking climate change in the north-central California coast and ocean region

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Benet; Higgason, Kelley; Suchanek, Tom; Largier, John; Stachowicz, Jay; Allen, Sarah; Bograd, Steven; Breen, R.; Gellerman, Holly; Hill, Tessa; Jahncke, Jaime; Johnson, Rebecca L.; Lonhart, Steve I.; Morgan, Steven; Wilkerson, Frances; Roletto, Jan

2013-01-01

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts. Climate change indicators can be developed on global, regional, and site-specific spatial scales, and they provide information about the presence and potential impacts of climate change. While indicators exist for the nation and for the state of California as a whole, no system of ocean climate indicators exist that specifically consider the unique characteristics of the California coast and ocean region. To that end, GFNMS collaborated with over 50 regional, federal, and state natural resource managers, research scientists, and other partners to develop a set of 2 ocean climate indicators specific to this region. A smaller working group of 13 regional partners developed monitoring goals, objectives, strategies, and activities for the indicators and recommended selected species for biological indicators, resulting in the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The working group considered current knowledge of ongoing monitoring, feasibility of monitoring, costs, and logistics in selecting monitoring activities and selected species.

Global warming: the complete briefing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Houghton, J

1994-01-01

The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

1980-01-01

Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Artificial climate warming positively affects arbuscular mycorrhizae but decreases soil aggregate water stability in an annual grassland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rillig, M.C.; Wright, S.F.; Shaw, M.R.; Field, C.B.

2002-04-01

Despite the importance of arbuscular mycorrhizae to the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. nutrient uptake, soil aggregation), and the increasing evidence of global warming, responses of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to climate warming are poorly understood. In a field experiment using infrared heaters, we found effects of warming on AMF after one growing season in an annual grassland, in the absence of any effects on measured root parameters (weight, length, average diameter). AMF soil hyphal length was increased by over 40% in the warmed plots, accompanied by a strong trend for AMF root colonization increase. In the following year, root weight was again not significantly changed, and AMF root colonization increased significantly in the warmed plots. Concentration of the soil protein glomalin, a glycoprotein produced by AMF hyphae with importance in soil aggregation, was decreased in the warmed plots. Soil aggregate water stability, measured for five diameter size classes, was also decreased significantly. In the following year, soil aggregate weight in two size classes was decreased significantly, but the effect size was very small. These results indicate that ecosystem warming may have stimulated carbon allocation to AMF. Other factors either influenced glomalin decomposition or production, hence influencing the role of these symbionts in soil aggregation. The observed small changes in soil aggregation, if widespread among terrestrial ecosystems, could have important consequences for soil carbon storage and erosion in a warmed climate, especially if there are cumulative effects of warming. (au)

Effects of climate warming on net primary productivity in China during 1961-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Fengxue; Zhang, Yuandong; Huang, Mei; Tao, Bo; Guo, Rui; Yan, Changrong

2017-09-01

The response of ecosystems to different magnitudes of climate warming and corresponding precipitation changes during the last few decades may provide an important reference for predicting the magnitude and trajectory of net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, a process-based ecosystem model, Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil and Atmosphere (CEVSA), was used to investigate the response of NPP to warming at both national and subregional scales during 1961-2010. The results suggest that a 1.3°C increase in temperature stimulated the positive changing trend in NPP at national scale during the past 50 years. Regardless of the magnitude of temperature increase, warming enhanced the increase in NPP; however, the positive trend of NPP decreased when warming exceeded 2°C. The largest increase in NPP was found in regions where temperature increased by 1-2°C, and this rate of increase also contributed the most to the total increase in NPP in China's terrestrial ecosystems. Decreasing precipitation depressed the positive trend in NPP that was stimulated by warming. In northern China, warming depressed the increasing trend of NPP and warming that was accompanied by decreasing precipitation led to negative changing trends in NPP in large parts of northern China, especially when warming exceeded 2°C. However, warming stimulated the increase in NPP until warming was greater than 2°C, and decreased precipitation helped to increase the NPP in southern China.

Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels

Science.gov (United States)

Schleussner, C. F.

2016-12-01

Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. By establishing 1.5°C as the long term temperature limit for global average temperature increase and inviting a special report of the IPCC on the impacts of 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement has put such assessments high on the post-Paris science agenda. Here I will present recent findings of climate impacts at 1.5°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. In particular, I will present findings from a recent study that attempts to differentiate between such impacts at warming levels of 1.5°¸C and 2°C above pre-industrial (Schleussner et al., 2016). By analyzing changes in indicators for 26 world regions as applicable, the study found regional dependent differences between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Regional hot-spots of change emerge with tropical regions bearing the brunt of the impacts of an additional 0.5°C warming. These findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. Building on that analysis, I will discuss limitations of existing approaches to differentiate between warming levels and outline opportunities for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. ReferencesSchleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C. Earth Syst. Dyn. 7, 327-351 (2016).

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Chen

2018-05-01

Full Text Available A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice in China during 2106–2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop–Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6, +4.1 (+9.4 and +0.2 % (−1.7 %, respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than

Thermal Effectiveness of Wall Indoor Fountain in Warm Humid Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Seputra, J. A. P.

2018-03-01

Nowadays, many buildings wield indoor water features such as waterfalls, fountains, and water curtains to improve their aesthetical value. Despite the provision of air cooling due to water evaporation, this feature also has adverse effect if applied in warm humid climate since evaporation might increase air humidity beyond the comfort level. Yet, there are no specific researches intended to measure water feature’s effect upon its thermal condition. In response, this research examines the influence of evaporative cooling on indoor wall fountain toward occupant’s thermal comfort in warm humid climate. To achieve this goal, case study is established in Waroeng Steak Restaurant’s dining room in Surakarta-Indonesia. In addition, SNI 03-6572-2001 with comfort range of 20.5–27.1°C and 40-60% of relative humidity is utilized as thermal criterion. Furthermore, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is employed to process the data and derive conclusions. Research variables are; feature’s height, obstructions, and fan types. As results, Two Bumps Model (ToB) is appropriate when employs natural ventilation. However, if the room is mechanically ventilated, Three Bumps Model (TeB) becomes the best choice. Moreover, application of adaptive ventilation is required to maintain thermal balance.

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

Review of research to inform California's climate scoping plan: Agriculture and working lands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan Byrnes

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Agriculture in California contributes 8% of the state's greenhouse gas (GHG emissions. To inform the state's policy and program strategy to meet climate targets, we review recent research on practices that can reduce emissions, sequester carbon and provide other co-benefits to producers and the environment across agriculture and rangeland systems. Importantly, the research reviewed here was conducted in California and addresses practices in our specific agricultural, socioeconomic and biophysical environment. Farmland conversion and the dairy and intensive livestock sector are the largest contributors to GHG emissions and offer the greatest opportunities for avoided emissions. We also identify a range of other opportunities including soil and nutrient management, integrated and diversified farming systems, rangeland management, and biomass-based energy generation. Additional research to replicate and quantify the emissions reduction or carbon sequestration potential of these practices will strengthen the evidence base for California climate policy.

High-resolution paleolimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marie-Elodie ePerga

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Varved lake sediments provide opportunities for high-resolution paleolimnological investigations that may extend monitoring surveys in order to target priority management actions under climate warming. This paper provides the synthesis of an international research program relying on >150 years-long, varved records for three managed perialpine lakes in Europe (Lakes Geneva, Annecy and Bourget. The dynamics of the dominant, local human pressures, as well as the ecological responses in the pelagic, benthic and littoral habitats were reconstructed using classical and newly developed paleo-proxies. Statistical modelling achieved the hierarchization of the drivers of their ecological trajectories. All three lakes underwent different levels of eutrophication in the first half of the XXth century, followed by re-oligotrophication. Climate warming came along with a 2°C increase in air temperature over the last century, to which lakes were unequally thermally vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, phosphorous concentration has been the dominant ecological driver over the last century. Yet, other human-influenced, local environmental drivers (fisheries management practices, river regulations have also significantly inflected ecological trajectories. Climate change has been impacting all habitats at rates that, in some cases, exceeded those of local factors. The amplitude and ecological responses to similar climate change varied between lakes, but, at least for pelagic habitats, rather depended on the intensity of local human pressures than on the thermal effect of climate change. Deep habitats yet showed higher sensitivity to climate change but substantial influence of river flows. As a consequence, adapted local management strategies, fully integrating nutrient inputs, fisheries management and hydrological regulations, may enable mitigating the deleterious consequences of ongoing climate change on these ecosystems.

Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, J.A.; van Wagtendonk, J.W.; Thode, A.E.; Miller, J.D.; Franklin, J.F.

2009-01-01

Continental-scale studies of western North America have attributed recent increases in annual area burned and fire size to a warming climate, but these studies have focussed on large fires and have left the issues of fire severity and ignition frequency unaddressed. Lightning ignitions, any of which could burn a large area given appropriate conditions for fire spread, could be the first indication of more frequent fire. We examined the relationship between snowpack and the ignition and size of fires that occurred in Yosemite National Park, California (area 3027 km2), between 1984 and 2005. During this period, 1870 fires burned 77 718 ha. Decreased spring snowpack exponentially increased the number of lightning-ignited fires. Snowpack mediated lightning-ignited fires by decreasing the proportion of lightning strikes that caused lightning-ignited fires and through fewer lightning strikes in years with deep snowpack. We also quantified fire severity for the 103 fires >40 ha with satellite fire-severity indices using 23 years of Landsat Thematic Mapper data. The proportion of the landscape that burned at higher severities and the complexity of higher-severity burn patches increased with the log10 of annual area burned. Using one snowpack forecast, we project that the number of lightning-ignited fires will increase 19.1% by 2020 to 2049 and the annual area burned at high severity will increase 21.9%. Climate-induced decreases in snowpack and the concomitant increase in fire severity suggest that existing assumptions may be understated-fires may become more frequent and more severe. ?? IAWF 2009.

Climate impact on airborne particulate matter concentrations in California using seven year analysis periods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmud

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The effect of global climate change on the annual average concentration of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5 in California was studied using a climate-air quality modeling system composed of global through regional models. Output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM generated under the "business as usual" global emissions scenario was downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model followed by air quality simulations using the UCD/CIT airshed model. The system represents major atmospheric processes acting on gas and particle phase species including meteorological effects on emissions, advection, dispersion, chemical reaction rates, gas-particle conversion, and dry/wet deposition. The air quality simulations were carried out for the entire state of California with a resolution of 8-km for the years 2000–2006 (present climate with present emissions and 2047–2053 (future climate with present emissions. Each of these 7-year analysis periods was analyzed using a total of 1008 simulated days to span a climatologically relevant time period with a practical computational burden. The 7-year windows were chosen to properly account for annual variability with the added benefit that the air quality predictions under the present climate could be compared to actual measurements. The climate-air quality modeling system successfully predicted the spatial pattern of present climate PM_2.5 concentrations in California but the absolute magnitude of the annual average PM_2.5 concentrations were under-predicted by ~4–39% in the major air basins. The majority of this under-prediction was caused by excess ventilation predicted by PCM-WRF that should be present to the same degree in the current and future time periods so that the net bias introduced into the comparison is minimized.

Surface temperature, relative humidity (RH, rain rate, and wind speed were predicted to increase in the future climate

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, John

2005-01-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Pierce, D.W.; Cayan, D.R.; Vano, J.A.; Lettenmaier, D.P.

2011-01-01

Warm season climate warming will be a key driver of annual streamflow changes in four major river basins of the western U.S., as shown by hydrological model simulations using fixed precipitation and idealized seasonal temperature changes based on climate projections with SRES A2 forcing. Warm season (April-September) warming reduces streamflow throughout the year; streamflow declines both immediately and in the subsequent cool season. Cool season (October-March) warming, by contrast, increases streamflow immediately, partially compensating for streamflow reductions during the subsequent warm season. A uniform warm season warming of 3C drives a wide range of annual flow declines across the basins: 13.3%, 7.2%, 1.8%, and 3.6% in the Colorado, Columbia, Northern and Southern Sierra basins, respectively. The same warming applied during the cool season gives annual declines of only 3.5%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 3.1%, respectively. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

2015-01-01

Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

Science.gov (United States)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better

Making sense of global warming: Norwegians appropriating knowledge of anthropogenic climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryghaug, Marianne; Sørensen, Knut Holtan; Naess, Robert

2011-11-01

This paper studies how people reason about and make sense of human-made global warming, based on ten focus group interviews with Norwegian citizens. It shows that the domestication of climate science knowledge was shaped through five sense-making devices: news media coverage of changes in nature, particularly the weather, the coverage of presumed experts' disagreement about global warming, critical attitudes towards media, observations of political inaction, and considerations with respect to everyday life. These sense-making devices allowed for ambiguous outcomes, and the paper argues four main outcomes with respect to the domestication processes: the acceptors, the tempered acceptors, the uncertain and the sceptics.

High-resolution climate of the past ∼7300 years of coastal northernmost California: Results from diatoms, silicoflagellates, and pollen

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, John A.; Bukry, David; Heusser, Linda E.; Addison, Jason A.; Alexander, Clark R.

2018-01-01

Piston core TN062-O550, collected about 33 km offshore of Eureka, California, contains a high-resolution record of the climate and oceanography of coastal northernmost California during the past ∼7.34 kyr. Chronology established by nine AMS ages on a combination of planktic foraminifers, bivalve shell fragments, and wood yields a mean sedimentation rate of 103 cm kyr−1. Marine proxies (diatoms and silicoflagellates) and pollen transported by the nearby Eel River reveal a stepwise development of both modern offshore surface water oceanography and coastal arboreal ecosystems. Beginning at ∼5.4 cal ka the relative abundance of coastal redwood pollen, a proxy for coastal fog, displays a two fold increase suggesting enhanced coastal upwelling. A decline in the relative contribution of subtropical diatoms at ∼5.0 cal ka implies cooling of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). At ∼3.6 cal ka an increase in the relative abundance of alder and oak at the expense of coastal redwood likely signals intensified riverine transport of pollen from inland environments. Cooler offshore SSTs and increased precipitation characterize the interval between ∼3.6 and 2.8 cal ka. A rapid, stepwise change in coastal climatology and oceanography occurs between ∼2.8 and 2.6 cal ka that suggests an enhanced expression of modern Pacific Decadal Oscillation-like (PDO) cycles. A three-fold increase in the relative abundance of the subtropical diatom Fragilariopsis doliolus at 2.8 cal ka appears to mark an abrupt warming of winter SSTs. Soon afterwards at 2.6 cal ka, a two fold increase in the relative abundance of coastal redwood pollen is suggestive of an abrupt intensification of spring upwelling. After ∼2.8 cal ka a sequence of cool-warm, PDO-like cycles occurs wherein cool cycles are characterized by relative abundance increases in coastal redwood pollen and decreased contributions of subtropical diatoms, whereas opposite proxy trends distinguish warm cycles.

Preparing for climate change: a perspective from local public health officers in California.

Science.gov (United States)

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-04-01

The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy.

Climate warming could increase recruitment success in glacier foreland plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Mondoni, Andrea; Pedrini, Simone; Bernareggi, Giulietta; Rossi, Graziano; Abeli, Thomas; Probert, Robin J; Ghitti, Michele; Bonomi, Costantino; Orsenigo, Simone

2015-11-01

Glacier foreland plants are highly threatened by global warming. Regeneration from seeds on deglaciated terrain will be crucial for successful migration and survival of these species, and hence a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on seedling recruitment is urgently needed to predict future plant persistence in these environments. This study presents the first field evidence of the impact of climate change on recruitment success of glacier foreland plants. Seeds of eight foreland species were sown on a foreland site at 2500 m a.s.l., and at a site 400 m lower in altitude to simulate a 2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature. Soil from the site of origin was used to reproduce the natural germination substrate. Recruitment success, temperature and water potential were monitored for 2 years. The response of seed germination to warming was further investigated in the laboratory. At the glacier foreland site, seedling emergence was low (0 to approx. 40 %) and occurred in summer in all species after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, at the warmer site there was a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence (13-35 % higher) in all species except two. Survival and establishment was possible for 60-75 % of autumn-emerged seedlings and was generally greater under warmer conditions. Early snowmelt in spring caused the main ecological factors enhancing the recruitment success. The results suggest that warming will influence the recruitment of glacier foreland species primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, which increases seedling establishment and results in a greater resistance to summer drought and winter extremes. The changes in recruitment success observed here imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate, but overall success may be dependent on interactions with shifts in other components of the

A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Science.gov (United States)

M. Safeeq; G.E. Grant; S.L. Lewis; M.G. Kramer; B. Staab

2014-01-01

Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation...

Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

2018-02-01

The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

Global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

Climate Warming as a Possible Trigger of Keystone Mussel Population Decline in Oligotrophic Rivers at the Continental Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolotov, Ivan N; Makhrov, Alexander A; Gofarov, Mikhail Yu; Aksenova, Olga V; Aspholm, Paul E; Bespalaya, Yulia V; Kabakov, Mikhail B; Kolosova, Yulia S; Kondakov, Alexander V; Ofenböck, Thomas; Ostrovsky, Andrew N; Popov, Igor Yu; von Proschwitz, Ted; Rudzīte, Mudīte; Rudzītis, Māris; Sokolova, Svetlana E; Valovirta, Ilmari; Vikhrev, Ilya V; Vinarski, Maxim V; Zotin, Alexey A

2018-01-08

The effects of climate change on oligotrophic rivers and their communities are almost unknown, albeit these ecosystems are the primary habitat of the critically endangered freshwater pearl mussel and its host fishes, salmonids. The distribution and abundance of pearl mussels have drastically decreased throughout Europe over the last century, particularly within the southern part of the range, but causes of this wide-scale extinction process are unclear. Here we estimate the effects of climate change on pearl mussels based on historical and recent samples from 50 rivers and 6 countries across Europe. We found that the shell convexity may be considered an indicator of the thermal effects on pearl mussel populations under warming climate because it reflects shifts in summer temperatures and is significantly different in viable and declining populations. Spatial and temporal modeling of the relationship between shell convexity and population status show that global climate change could have accelerated the population decline of pearl mussels over the last 100 years through rapidly decreasing suitable distribution areas. Simulation predicts future warming-induced range reduction, particularly in southern regions. These results highlight the importance of large-scale studies of keystone species, which can underscore the hidden effects of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems.

Chapter 1. Bending the Curve: Ten Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Ramanathan

2016-12-01

Full Text Available We are living in a world of over seven billion people, with annual greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 50 billion tons a year and rising steadily. If continued unabated, the world is on target to warm by about 2 °C in less than 40 years, pushing the climate to a regime unlike any that has been witnessed in the last million years. Nonetheless, we still have time to avert such a catastrophic scenario, or delay its occurrence by several decades to provide human societies and the ecosystem with the time to adjust. In order to mitigate the possibility of climate disruption, we need to recognize that fossil fuel based technologies have become outdated and transform the energy system to that of low-carbon, sustainable and secure energy systems. In addition, we have to mitigate emissions of the four short-lived climate pollutants to bring immediate relief from climate change and protect vulnerable societies. Stability of the climate system involves not only the centrality of scientific and technological advancements and investments, but also necessary shifts in social structure and behavior by individuals, communities and societies worldwide as well as market based instruments, sub-national collaborations and governance structure. Fortunately, living laboratories—such as the State of California and the University of California system, which has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2025—provide demonstrable solutions which hold promise in alleviating the climate warming in the next generation. These jurisdictions are tiny emitters in the global picture, but they offer the potential for leverage through demonstrating (Figure 1 new technologies as well as workable institutions that cut emissions. We outline 10 pragmatic solutions—a “kit of parts” rooted in California but scalable to the world—that taken together, can “bend the curve” of the upward trajectory of human-caused warming trends. Wholesale transformation of our current

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hameed, S; Cess, R D [State Univ. of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY (USA). Lab. for Planetary Atmospheres Research

1983-01-01

Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hameed, S; Cess, R D

1983-02-01

Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. We have explored this feedback mechanism using a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by calculating the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane. Although we find this climate feedback to be, by itself, relatively minor, it can produce measurable increases in atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentration, a quantity which should additionally increase as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic emissions of CO and CH/sub 4/ itself. It would thus seem useful to carefully monitor future atmospheric CH/sub 4/ concentrations.

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

2017-11-21

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

Science.gov (United States)

Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

2016-05-01

Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatic warming increases winter wheat yield but reduces grain nitrogen concentration in east China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yunlu Tian

Full Text Available Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05, respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05 higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Heinke

2013-10-01

Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Seasonality of change: Summer warming rates do not fully represent effects of climate change on lake temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Winslow, Luke; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Rose, Kevin C.; Robertson, Dale M.

2017-01-01

Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity in air temperature trends. Monthly surface-water temperature warming rates varied across the open-water season, ranging from 0.013 in August to 0.073°C yr−1 in September (standard deviation [SD]: 0.025°C yr−1). Deep-water trends during summer varied less among months (SD: 0.006°C yr−1), but varied broadly among lakes (–0.056°C yr−1 to 0.035°C yr−1, SD: 0.034°C yr−1). Trends in monthly surface-water temperatures were well correlated with air temperature trends, suggesting monthly air temperature trends, for which data exist at broad scales, may be a proxy for seasonal patterns in surface-water temperature trends during the open water season in lakes similar to those studied here. Seasonally variable warming has broad implications for how ecological processes respond to climate change, because phenological events such as fish spawning and phytoplankton succession respond to specific, seasonal temperature cues.

Shifting suitability for malaria vectors across Africa with warming climates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peterson A Townsend

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Climates are changing rapidly, producing warm climate conditions globally not previously observed in modern history. Malaria is of great concern as a cause of human mortality and morbidity, particularly across Africa, thanks in large part to the presence there of a particularly competent suite of mosquito vector species. Methods I derive spatially explicit estimates of human populations living in regions newly suitable climatically for populations of two key Anopheles gambiae vector complex species in Africa over the coming 50 years, based on ecological niche model projections over two global climate models, two scenarios of climate change, and detailed spatial summaries of human population distributions. Results For both species, under all scenarios, given the changing spatial distribution of appropriate conditions and the current population distribution, the models predict a reduction of 11.3–30.2% in the percentage of the overall population living in areas climatically suitable for these vector species in coming decades, but reductions and increases are focused in different regions: malaria vector suitability is likely to decrease in West Africa, but increase in eastern and southern Africa. Conclusion Climate change effects on African malaria vectors shift their distributional potential from west to east and south, which has implications for overall numbers of people exposed to these vector species. Although the total is reduced, malaria is likely to pose novel public health problems in areas where it has not previously been common.

Thermal reactionomes reveal divergent responses to thermal extremes in warm and cool-climate ant species

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stanton-Geddes, John; Nguyen, Andrew; Chick, Lacy

2016-01-01

across an experimental gradient. We characterized thermal reactionomes of two common ant species in the eastern U.S, the northern cool-climate Aphaenogaster picea and the southern warm-climate Aphaenogaster carolinensis, across 12 temperatures that spanned their entire thermal breadth.......The distributions of species and their responses to climate change are in part determined by their thermal tolerances. However, little is known about how thermal tolerance evolves. To test whether evolutionary extension of thermal limits is accomplished through enhanced cellular stress response...

Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Bedford, Daniel

2016-01-01

Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

Susceptibility of Permafrost Soil Organic Carbon under Warming Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Liang, L.; Graham, D. E.; Gu, B.

2015-12-01

Degradation of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has been stored in permafrost is a key concern under warming climate because it could provide a positive feedback. Studies and conceptual models suggest that SOC degradation is largely controlled by the decomposability of SOC, but it is unclear exactly what portions of SOC are susceptible to rapid breakdown and what mechanisms may be involved in SOC degradation. Using a suite of analytical techniques, we examined the dynamic consumption and production of labile SOC compounds, including sugars, alcohols, and small molecular weight organic acids in incubation experiments (up to 240 days at either -2 or 8 °C) with a tundra soil under anoxic conditions, where SOC respiration and iron(III) reduction were monitored. We observe that sugars and alcohols are main components in SOC accounting for initial rapid release of CO2 and CH4 through anaerobic fermentation, whereas the fermentation products such as acetate and formate are subsequently utilized as primary substrates for methanogenesis. Iron(III) reduction is correlated to acetate production and methanogenesis, suggesting its important roles as an electron acceptor in tundra SOC respiration. These observations corroborate strongly with the glucose addition during incubation, in which rapid CO2 and CH4 production is observed concurrently with rapid production and consumption of organics such as acetate. Thus, the biogeochemical processes we document here are pertinent to understanding the accelerated SOC decomposition with temperature and could provide basis for model predicting feedbacks to climate warming in the Arctic.

Using radiative signatures to diagnose the cause of warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Sebastian; Yin, Dongqin; Roderick, Michael L.

2017-10-01

California recently experienced among the worst droughts of the last century, with exceptional precipitation deficits and co-occurring record high temperatures. The dry conditions caused severe water shortages in one of the economically most important agricultural regions of the US. It has recently been hypothesized that anthropogenic warming is increasing the likelihood of such extreme droughts in California, or more specifically, that warmer temperatures from the enhanced greenhouse effect intensify drought conditions. However, separating the cause and effect is difficult because the dry conditions lead to a reduction in evaporative cooling that contributes to the warming. Here we investigate and compare the forcing of long-term greenhouse-induced warming with the short-term warming during the 2013-2014 Californian drought. We use the concept of radiative signatures to investigate the source of the radiative perturbation during the drought, relate the signatures to expected changes due to anthropogenic warming, and assess the cause of warming based on observed changes in the surface energy balance compared to the period 2001-2012. We found that the recent meteorological drought based on precipitation deficits was characterised by an increase in incoming shortwave radiation coupled with a decline in incoming longwave radiation, which contributed to record warm temperatures. In contrast, climate models project that anthropogenic warming is accompanied by little change in incoming shortwave but a large increase in incoming longwave radiation. The warming during the drought was associated with increased incoming shortwave radiation in combination with reduced evaporative cooling from water deficits, which enhanced surface temperatures and sensible heat transfer to the atmosphere. Our analyses demonstrate that radiative signatures are a powerful tool to differentiate the source of perturbations in the surface energy balance at monthly to seasonal time scales.

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges.

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Gutiérrez, Emilia; González Rouco, Fidel; Gazol, Antonio; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Linares, Juan Carlos; Seftigen, Kristina

2017-07-01

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO 2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of -10.7% and -16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling

Both life-history plasticity and local adaptation will shape range-wide responses to climate warming in the tundra plant Silene acaulis.

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, Megan L; Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2018-04-01

Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species-wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life-history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species-wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species' range-not only those at the trailing range edge-could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species' latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade-off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species' ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest

Cloud Feedback Key to Marine Heatwave off Baja California

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Timothy A.; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Cesana, Gregory V.; DeFlorio, Michael J.; Waliser, Duane E.

2018-05-01

Between 2013 and 2015, the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced the warmest surface temperature anomalies in the modern observational record. This "marine heatwave" marked a shift of Pacific decadal variability to its warm phase and was linked to significant impacts on marine species as well as exceptionally arid conditions in western North America. Here we show that the subtropical signature of this warming, off Baja California, was associated with a record deficit in the spatial coverage of co-located marine boundary layer clouds. This deficit coincided with a large increase in downwelling solar radiation that dominated the anomalous energy budget of the upper ocean, resulting in record-breaking warm sea surface temperature anomalies. Our observation-based analysis suggests that a positive cloud-surface temperature feedback was key to the extreme intensity of the heatwave. The results demonstrate the extent to which boundary layer clouds can contribute to regional variations in climate.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

OpenAIRE

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

The 2014-2015 warming anomaly in the Southern California Current System observed by underwater gliders

Science.gov (United States)

Zaba, Katherine D.; Rudnick, Daniel L.

2016-02-01

Large-scale patterns of positive temperature anomalies persisted throughout the surface waters of the North Pacific Ocean during 2014-2015. In the Southern California Current System, measurements by our sustained network of underwater gliders reveal the coastal effects of the recent warming. Regional upper ocean temperature anomalies were greatest since the initiation of the glider network in 2006. Additional observed physical anomalies included a depressed thermocline, high stratification, and freshening; induced biological consequences included changes in the vertical distribution of chlorophyll fluorescence. Contemporaneous surface heat flux and wind strength perturbations suggest that local anomalous atmospheric forcing caused the unusual oceanic conditions.

Potential for Extensive Forest Loss in the Klamath Mountains due to Increased Fire Activity and Altered Post-Fire Forest Recovery Dynamics in a Warming Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Tepley, A. J.; Thompson, J. R.; Epstein, H. E.; Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.

2016-12-01

In the context of ongoing climatic warming, certain landscapes could be near a tipping point where relatively small changes to their fire regimes or post-fire forest recovery dynamics could bring about extensive conversion of forests to shorter-statured, more fire-prone vegetation, with associated changes in biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and climate feedbacks. Such concerns are particularly valid in the Klamath Region of northern California and southwestern Oregon, where montane landscapes support conifer forests, but severe fire converts them to systems dominated by broadleaf trees and shrubs that rapidly resprout or germinate from a dormant seedbank. Conifers eventually overtop the competing vegetation, but until they do, these systems are highly fire prone and susceptible to perpetuation through a cycle of reburning. To assess the vulnerability to fire-driven loss of conifer forests in a warming climate, we characterized the trajectories of post-fire forest recovery in 57 sites that burned severely within the last three decades and span the aridity gradient of montane conifer forests. Post-fire conifer regeneration was limited to a surprisingly narrow window, with 89% of all seedlings established in the first four years after fire. Early establishment conferred a competitive growth advantage such that the longer the lag between the fire year and the year of seedling establishment, the slower its height growth. A substantial portion of variation in post-fire conifer seedling density was driven by an interaction between propagule pressure and site moisture status (climatic water deficit). Mesic sites had abundant regeneration except where seed sources were nearly absent across large (ca. 50 ha) high-severity patches. Toward the dry end of the moisture gradient, much higher propagule pressure was required to support even moderate levels of conifer regeneration. The present distribution of conifer forests falls largely within the portion of the moisture gradient

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yanhong; Li, Xia; Xu, Jianwei; Ruby Leung, L.; Chen, Deliang

2015-01-01

Desertification in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has drawn increasing attention in the recent decades. It has been postulated as a consequence of increasing climate aridity due to the observed warming. This study quantifies the aridity changes in the TP and attributes the changes to different climatic factors. Using the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (P/PET) as an aridity index, we used observed meteorological records at 83 stations in the TP to calculate PET using the Penman–Monteith algorithm and the ratio. Spatial and temporal changes of P/PET in 1979–2011 were analyzed. Results show that stations located in the arid and semi-arid northwestern TP are becoming significantly wetter, and half of the stations in the semi-humid eastern TP are becoming drier, though not significantly, in the recent three decades. The aridity change patterns are significantly correlated with the change patterns of precipitation, sunshine duration and diurnal temperature range. Temporal correlations between the annual P/PET ratio and other meteorological variables confirm the significant correlation between aridity and the three variables, with precipitation being the dominant driver of P/PET changes at the interannual time scale. Annual PET are insignificantly but negatively correlated with P/PET in the cold season. In the warm season, however, the correlation between PET and P/PET is significant at the confidence level of 99.9% when the cryosphere near the surface melts. Significant correlation between annual wind speed and aridity occurs in limited locations and months. Consistency in the climatology pattern and linear trends in surface air temperature and precipitation calculated using station data, gridded data, and nearest grid-to-stations for the TP average and across sub-basins indicate the robustness of the trends despite the large spatial heterogeneity in the TP that challenge climate monitoring. (letter)

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter B Moyle

Full Text Available Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1 current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction and (2 likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction. Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish

Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

Science.gov (United States)

Lunt, D J; Elderfield, H; Pancost, R; Ridgwell, A; Foster, G L; Haywood, A; Kiehl, J; Sagoo, N; Shields, C; Stone, E J; Valdes, P

2013-10-28

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

Global Warming and Geographically Scalar Climatic Objects Exist: An Ontologically Realist and Object-Oriented Analysis of the Daymet TMAX Climate Summaries for North America

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, C. P.

2017-12-01

The scientific materialist worldview, what Peter Unger refers to as the Scientiphical worldview, or Scientiphicalism, has been utterly catastrophic for mesoscale objects in general, but, with its closely associated twentieth-century formal logic, this has been especially true for notoriously vague things like climate change, coastlines, mountains and dust storms. That is, any so-called representations or references ultimately suffer the same ontological demise as their referents, no matter how well-defined their boundaries may in fact be. Against this reductionist metaphysics, climatic objects are discretized within three separate ontologically realist systems, Graham Harman's object-oriented philosophy, or ontology (OOO), Markus Gabriel's ontology of fields of sense (OFS) and Tristan Garcia's two systems and new order of time, so as to make an ontological case for any geographically scalar object, beginning with pixels, as well as any notoriously vague thing they are said to represent. Four-month overlapping TMAX seasonals were first developed from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Daymet climate temperature maximum (TMAX) monthly summaries (1980-2016) for North America and segmented within Trimble's eCognition Developer using the simple and widely familiar quadtree algorithm with a scale parameter of four, in this example. The regression coefficient was then calculated for the resulting 37-year climatic objects and an equally simple classification was applied. The same segmentation and classification was applied to the Daymet annual summaries, as well, for comparison. As was expected, the mean warming and cooling trends are lowest for the annual summary TMAX climatic objects. However, the Fall (SOND) season has the largest and smallest areas of warming and cooling, respectively, and the highest mean trend for warming objects. Conversely, Spring (MAMJ) has the largest and smallest areas undergoing cooling and warming, respectively. Finally, Summer (JJAS

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population

Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Hydroelectric Generation and Ancillary Services in California

Science.gov (United States)

Forrest, K.; Tarroja, B.; AghaKouchak, A.; Chiang, F.; Samuelsen, S.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal shifts in hydrological regimes predicted under climate change conditions have implications for the management of reservoirs and hydropower contributions to generation and ancillary services. California relies on large hydropower plants to provide flexible electricity generation, which will be increasingly important for supporting renewable resources. This study examines the impact of climate change on large hydropower generation in California. Four climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are utilized to evaluate the impact of the climate change conditions on (1) the magnitude and profile of hydropower generation and (2) the ability of hydropower to provide spinning reserve. Under both RCP scenarios, impacts are regionally dependent, with precipitation projected to increase in northern California and decrease in southern California for the ten-year period investigated (2046-2055). The overall result is a net increase in inflow into large hydropower units as a majority of the hydropower plants studied are located in the northern part of the state. Increased inflow is primarily driven by increased runoff during the winter and does not necessarily result in increased generation, as extreme events yield greater overall spillage, up to 45% of total inflow. Increased winter hydropower generation paired with increased reservoir constraints in summer result in an 11 to 18% decrease in spinning reserve potential across the year. Under high inflow conditions there is a decreased flexibility for choosing generation versus spinning reserve as water needs to be released, regardless. During summer, hydropower units providing spinning reserve experienced decreased inflow and lower reservoir levels compared to the historical baseline, resulting in decreased spinning reserve bidding potential. Decreased bidding, especially during summer periods at peak electricity demand, can result in greater demand for other dispatchable

Man -made greenhouse gases trigger unified force to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karishnan, K.J.; Kalam, A.

2011-01-01

Global warming problems due to man-made greenhouse gases (GHGs), appear to be a serious concern and threat to the globe. CO/sub 2/, O/sub 3, NOx and HFC's are the main greenhouse gases and CO/sub 2/ is one of the main cause of global warming. CO/sub 2/ is emitted from burning fossil fuels to produce electricity from power plants and burning of gasoline in vehicles and airplanes. Global greenhouse gases and its sources in regions are discussed in this paper. This paper initially discusses the CO/sub 2/ emissions and the recycle of CO/sub 2/ in biodiesel. This paper mainly focuses on 'Unified Force'. The increase of H/sub 2/O in the sea due to warming of the globe triggers the 'Unified Force' or 'Self-Compressive Surrounding Pressure Force' which is proportional to the H/sub 2/O level in the sea to start global warming impacts referred to as climate change. This paper also points out the climate change and the ten surprising results of global warming. Finally, this paper suggests switching from fossil fuel technology to green energy technologies like biodiesel which recycles CO/sub 2/ emissions and also Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Technologies which eradicates global warming impacts. The benefits of switching from fossil fuel to biodiesel and Hydrogen Energy utilization includes reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution, economic independence by having distributed production and burning of biodiesel does not add extra CO/sub 2/ to the air that contributes global warming impacts. (author)

Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

Science.gov (United States)

Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

2017-09-01

While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

2004-09-01

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Benavides, Raquel; Kunstler, Georges; Espelta, Josep M; Ogaya, Romá; Peñuelas, Josep; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Gil, Wojciech; Grodzki, Wojciech; Ambrozy, Slawomir; Bergh, Johan; Hódar, José A; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

2013-08-01

Predicting climate-driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30-year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Zhao

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Bill

1994-01-01

A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

Urbanization Causes Increased Cloud Base Height and Decreased Fog in Coastal Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, A. Park; Schwartz, Rachel E.; Iacobellis, Sam; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Still, Christopher J.; Husak, Gregory; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

Subtropical marine stratus clouds regulate coastal and global climate, but future trends in these clouds are uncertain. In coastal Southern California (CSCA), interannual variations in summer stratus cloud occurrence are spatially coherent across 24 airfields and dictated by positive relationships with stability above the marine boundary layer (MBL) and MBL height. Trends, however, have been spatially variable since records began in the mid-1900s due to differences in nighttime warming. Among CSCA airfields, differences in nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, are strongly and positively related to fraction of nearby urban cover, consistent with an urban heat island effect. Nighttime warming raises the near-surface dew point depression, which lifts the altitude of condensation and cloud base height, thereby reducing fog frequency. Continued urban warming, rising cloud base heights, and associated effects on energy and water balance would profoundly impact ecological and human systems in highly populated and ecologically diverse CSCA.

Impact and prevention on global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Heon Ryeol

2003-11-01

This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

Potential Alternative Lower Global Warming Refrigerants for Air Conditioning in Hot Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Shrestha, Som S [ORNL; Shen, Bo [ORNL

2017-01-01

The earth continues to see record increase in temperatures and extreme weather conditions that is largely driven by anthropogenic emissions of warming gases such as carbon dioxide and other more potent greenhouse gases such as refrigerants. The cooperation of 188 countries in the Conference of the Parties in Paris 2015 (COP21) resulted in an agreement aimed to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2 C. A global phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can prevent 0.5 C of warming by 2100. However, most of the countries in hot climates are considered as developing countries and as such are still using R-22 (a Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC)) as the baseline refrigerant and are currently undergoing a phase-out of R-22 which is controlled by current Montreal Protocol to R-410A and other HFC based refrigerants. These HFCs have significantly high Global Warming Potential (GWP) and might not perform as well as R-22 at high ambient temperature conditions. In this paper we present recent results on evaluating the performance of alternative lower GWP refrigerants for R-22 and R-410A for small residential mini-split air conditioners and large commercial packaged units. Results showed that several of the alternatives would provide adequate replacement for R-22 with minor system modification. For the R-410A system, results showed that some of the alternatives were almost drop-in ready with benefit in efficiency and/or capacity. One of the most promising alternatives for R-22 mini-split unit is propane (R-290) as it offers higher efficiency; however it requires compressor and some other minor system modification to maintain capacity and minimize flammability risk. Between the R-410A alternatives, R-32 appears to have a competitive advantage; however at the cost of higher compressor discharge temperature. With respect to the hydrofluoroolefin (HFO) blends, there existed a tradeoff in performance and system design

On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Chandan

2018-06-01

Full Text Available We present results from our investigation into the physical mechanisms through which the mid-Pliocene, with a pCO2 of only  ∼  400 ppmv, could have supported the same magnitude of global warmth as has been projected for the climate at the end of the 21st century when pCO2 is expected to be 3 times higher. These mechanisms allow us to understand the warming in terms of changes to the radiative properties of the surface, the clouds, greenhouse gases, and changes to the meridional heat transport. We find that two-thirds of the warming pervasive during the mid-Pliocene, compared to the preindustrial, could be attributed to the reduction in the planetary emissivity owing to the higher concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 and water vapor, and the remaining one-third to the reduction in planetary albedo. We also find that changes to the orography and the pCO2 are the leading causes of the warming with each contributing in roughly equal parts to a total of 87 % of the warming and changes to the polar ice sheets responsible for the remaining warming. Furthermore, we provide a mid-Pliocene perspective on ongoing efforts to understand the climate system's sensitivity at various timescales and using multiple lines of evidence. The similarities in the boundary conditions between the mid-Pliocene and the present day, together with the globally elevated temperatures, make the mid-Pliocene an ideal paleo time period from which to derive inferences of climate sensitivity and assess the impacts of various timescale-dependent feedback processes. We assess a hierarchy of climate sensitivities of increasing complexity in order to explore the response of the climate over a very large range of timescales. The picture that emerges is as follows: on the short timescale, owing to the influence of fast feedback processes, the climate sensitivity is 3.25 °C per doubling of CO2; sensitivity increases to 4.16 °C per doubling of CO2 on an intermediate

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

Above- and belowground linkages in Sphagnum peatland: climate warming affects plant-microbial interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Jassey, Vincent E J; Chiapusio, Geneviève; Binet, Philippe; Buttler, Alexandre; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Delarue, Frédéric; Bernard, Nadine; Mitchell, Edward A D; Toussaint, Marie-Laure; Francez, André-Jean; Gilbert, Daniel

2013-03-01

Peatlands contain approximately one third of all soil organic carbon (SOC). Warming can alter above- and belowground linkages that regulate soil organic carbon dynamics and C-balance in peatlands. Here we examine the multiyear impact of in situ experimental warming on the microbial food web, vegetation, and their feedbacks with soil chemistry. We provide evidence of both positive and negative impacts of warming on specific microbial functional groups, leading to destabilization of the microbial food web. We observed a strong reduction (70%) in the biomass of top-predators (testate amoebae) in warmed plots. Such a loss caused a shortening of microbial food chains, which in turn stimulated microbial activity, leading to slight increases in levels of nutrients and labile C in water. We further show that warming altered the regulatory role of Sphagnum-polyphenols on microbial community structure with a potential inhibition of top predators. In addition, warming caused a decrease in Sphagnum cover and an increase in vascular plant cover. Using structural equation modelling, we show that changes in the microbial food web affected the relationships between plants, soil water chemistry, and microbial communities. These results suggest that warming will destabilize C and nutrient recycling of peatlands via changes in above- and belowground linkages, and therefore, the microbial food web associated with mosses will feedback positively to global warming by destabilizing the carbon cycle. This study confirms that microbial food webs thus constitute a key element in the functioning of peatland ecosystems. Their study can help understand how mosses, as ecosystem engineers, tightly regulate biogeochemical cycling and climate feedback in peatlands. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Randerson, J.T.; Liu, H.; Flanner, M.G.; Chambers, S.D.; Jin, Y.; Hess, P.G.; Pfister, G.; Mack, M.C.; Treseder, K.K.; Welp, L.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Harden, J.W.; Goulden, M.L.; Lyons, E.; Neff, J.C.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Zender, C.S.

2006-01-01

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ?? 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 ?? 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

2006-11-17

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

Long-term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a warming world.

Science.gov (United States)

Melillo, J M; Frey, S D; DeAngelis, K M; Werner, W J; Bernard, M J; Bowles, F P; Pold, G; Knorr, M A; Grandy, A S

2017-10-06

In a 26-year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude hardwood forest, we documented changes in soil carbon cycling to investigate the potential consequences for the climate system. We found that soil warming results in a four-phase pattern of soil organic matter decay and carbon dioxide fluxes to the atmosphere, with phases of substantial soil carbon loss alternating with phases of no detectable loss. Several factors combine to affect the timing, magnitude, and thermal acclimation of soil carbon loss. These include depletion of microbially accessible carbon pools, reductions in microbial biomass, a shift in microbial carbon use efficiency, and changes in microbial community composition. Our results support projections of a long-term, self-reinforcing carbon feedback from mid-latitude forests to the climate system as the world warms. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

Science.gov (United States)

Milfont, Taciano L

2012-06-01

If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Long Term Ground Based Precipitation Data Analysis in California's 7 Climate Divisions: Spatial and Temporal Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, L.; El-Askary, H. M.; Rakovski, C.; Allai, M.

2015-12-01

California is an area of diverse topography and has what many scientists call a Mediterranean climate. Various precipitation patterns exist due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which can cause abnormal precipitation or droughts. As temperature increases mainly due to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, it is rapidly changing the climate of not only California but the world. An increase in temperature is leading to droughts in certain areas as other areas are experiencing heavy rainfall/flooding. Droughts in return are providing a foundation for fires harming the ecosystem and nearby population. Various natural hazards can be induced due to the coupling effects from inconsistent precipitation patterns and vice versa. Using wavelets and ARIMA modeling, we were able to identify anomalies of high precipitation and droughts within California's 7 climate divisions using NOAA's hourly precipitation data from rain gauges and compared the results with modeled data, SOI, PDO, and AMO. The identification of anomalies can be used to compare and correct remote sensing measurements of precipitation and droughts.

Hydrological Response of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenjiang Zhang

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Alpine wetlands in the Tibetan Plateau (TP play a crucial role in the regional hydrological cycle due to their strong influence on surface ecohydrological processes; therefore, understanding how TP wetlands respond to climate change is essential for projecting their future condition and potential vulnerability. We investigated the hydrological responses of a large TP wetland complex to recent climate change, by combining multiple satellite observations and in-situ hydro-meteorological records. We found different responses of runoff production to regional warming trends among three basins with similar climate, topography and vegetation cover but different wetland proportions. The basin with larger wetland proportion (40.1% had a lower mean runoff coefficient (0.173 ± 0.006, and also showed increasingly lower runoff level (−3.9% year−1, p = 0.002 than the two adjacent basins. The satellite-based observations showed an increasing trend of annual non-frozen period, especially in the wetland-dominated region (2.64 day·year−1, p < 0.10, and a strong extension of vegetation growing-season (0.26–0.41 day·year−1, p < 0.10. Relatively strong increasing trends in evapotranspiration (ET (~1.00 mm·year−1, p < 0.01 and the vertical temperature gradient above ground surface (0.043 °C·year−1, p < 0.05 in wetland-dominant areas were documented from satellite-based ET observations and weather station records. These results indicate recent surface drying and runoff reduction of alpine wetlands, and their potential vulnerability to degradation with continued climate warming.

Responses of alpine grassland on Qinghai–Tibetan plateau to climate warming and permafrost degradation: a modeling perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yi, Shuhua; Wang, Xiaoyun; Qin, Yu; Ding, Yongjian; Xiang, Bo

2014-01-01

Permafrost plays a critical role in soil hydrology. Thus, the degradation of permafrost under warming climate conditions may affect the alpine grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. Previous space-for-time studies using plot and basin scales have reached contradictory conclusions. In this study, we applied a process-based ecosystem model (DOS-TEM) with a state-of-the-art permafrost hydrology scheme to examine this issue. Our results showed that 1) the DOS-TEM model could properly simulate the responses of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics and of ecosystem dynamics to climate warming and spatial differences in precipitation; 2) the simulated results were consistent with plot-scale studies showing that warming caused an increase in maximum unfrozen thickness, a reduction in vegetation and soil carbon pools as a whole, and decreases in soil water content, net primary production, and heterotrophic respiration; and 3) the simulated results were also consistent with basin-scale studies showing that the ecosystem responses to warming were different in regions with different combinations of water and energy constraints. Permafrost prevents water from draining into water reservoirs. However, the degradation of permafrost in response to warming is a long-term process that also enhances evapotranspiration. Thus, the degradation of the alpine grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (releasing carbon) cannot be mainly attributed to the disappearing waterproofing function of permafrost. (letter)

The climatic warming up (the greenhouse effect); Le rechauffement climatique (l'effet de serre)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jancovici, J M; Jouzel, J [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Lorius, C [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, 38 - Grenoble (France); and others

2000-05-01

Facing the environmental and biological impacts of the climatic warming up, scientists and economists organized a debate on the subject. After a theoretical presentation of the greenhouse effect and the greenhouse gases, the climatic changes are discussed and simulation of the effects are presented. The today effects and tomorrow impacts on the agriculture and the public health are also presented. A synthesis is proposed to discuss the contribution of the energy policy and of the technological progress in measures of greenhouse effect control. (A.L.B.)

Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

Science.gov (United States)

Heberger, M. G.; Cooley, H.; Moore, E.; Garzon, C.

2011-12-01

The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers, after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.

20th century climate warming and tree-limit rise in the southern Scandes of Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Kullman, L

2001-03-01

Climate warming by ca. 0.8 degree C between the late-19th and late-20th century, although with some fluctuations, has forced multispecies elevational tree-limit advance by > 100 m for the principal tree species in the Swedish part of the Scandinavian mountain range. Predominantly, these processes imply growth in height of old-established individuals and less frequently upslope migration of new individuals. After a slight retardation during some cooler decades after 1940, a new active phase of tree-limit advance has occurred with a series of exceptionally mild winters and some warm summers during the 1990s. The magnitude of total 20th century tree-limit rise varies with topoclimate and is mainly confined to wind-sheltered and snow-rich segments of the landscape. Thickening of birch tree stands in the "advance belt" has profoundly altered the general character of the subalpine/low alpine landscape and provides a positive feedback loop for further progressive change and resilience to short-term cooling episodes. All upslope tree-limit shifts and associated landscape transformations during the 20th century have occurred without appreciable time lags, which constitutes knowledge fundamental to the generation of realistic models concerning vegetation responses to potential future warming. The new and elevated pine tree-limit may be the highest during the past 4000 14C years. Thus, it is tentatively inferred that the 20th century climate is unusually warm in a late-Holocene perspective.

Application of Recurrent Neural Networks on El Nino Impact on California Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Le, J.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allai, M.

2017-12-01

Following our successful paper on the application for the El Nino season of 2015-2016 over Southern California, we use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. These predictions were bourne out in the resulting data. This paper details the expansion of our system to the climate of the entire California climate as a whole, dealing with inter-relationships and spatial variations within the state.

Global warming influence on climatic variables and thermal comfort index in Paraíba state, Brazil

OpenAIRE

Silva, Gustavo de Assis; Instituto Agronômico de Pernambuco; Souza, Bonifácio Benicio de; Universidade Federal Campina Grande; Silva, Elisângela Maria Nunes da; UFCG

2015-01-01

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases originated from burning fossil fuels, along with breeding, been appointed as the main causes of global climate change resulting from global warming in earth's atmosphere. These changes can cause serious impacts on the lives and livestock production mainly in tropical regions. Therefore, the aim with this work was to evaluate the effect of global warming on the climatological variables, thermal comfort index and animal production in the sta...

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

Science.gov (United States)

Sparks, Morgan M.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Quinn, Thomas P.; Adkison, Milo D.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Bartz, Krista K.; Young, Daniel B.; Westley, Peter A. H.

2018-01-01

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Analyzing Regional Climate Change in Africa in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C Global Warming World

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, T.; Haensler, A.; Rechid, D.; Pfeifer, S.; Eggert, B.; Jacob, D.

2018-04-01

At the 21st session of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, an agreement to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase well below 2°C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. In the paper we will discuss the analysis of indices assigned to the sectors health, agriculture, and infrastructure in a 1.5, 2, and 3°C global warming world for the African continent. For this analysis an ensemble of 10 different general circulation model-regional climate model simulations conducted in the framework of the COordinated Downscaling EXperiment for Africa was investigated. The results show that the African continent, in particular the regions between 15°S and 15°N, has to expect an increase in hot nights and longer and more frequent heat waves even if the global temperature will be kept below 2°C. These effects intensify if the global mean temperature will exceed the 2°C threshold. Moreover, the daily rainfall intensity is expected to increase toward higher global warming scenarios and will affect especially the African Sub-Saharan coastal regions.

Science blogging: RealClimate.org and the Global Warming debate

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, G. A.

2006-12-01

The media and public policy debate suffer from an extreme form of Attention Deficit Disorder. Compared to the daily news cycle, the progress of scientific debate within the peer-reviewed literature is extremely slow. This puts serious scientists who work in relatively politicised fields (global warming, evolution, stem cell research and the like) at a huge disadvantage when it comes to having their voices heard above the noise. Since Dec 2004, RealClimate.org has been operating as a group blog (a web-based journal) run by climate scientists for interested members of the public and the media. The aim has been to provide the context for climate-related news stories that is often missing in the mainstream media and to explain the basics of our field to the often confused, but curious, members of the public. In particular, it has provided rapid reaction to mis-uses and abuses of scientific results by policy advocates across the spectrum. Reactions to the blog have been overwhelmingly (but not uniformly) positive from both professionals in the media, the scientific community and the public. It has been described as the 'go-to site' for climate science in the New York Times, and received a Scientific American Science and Technology Web award in 2005. I will discuss what impacts RealClimate may have had and the pluses and minuses of trying to reach the public through this kind of outlet.

Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

Physiological effects of climate warming on flowering plants and insect pollinators and potential consequences for their interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria L. SCAVEN, Nicole E. RAFFERTY

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Growing concern about the influence of climate change on flowering plants, pollinators, and the mutualistic interactions between them has led to a recent surge in research. Much of this research has addressed the consequences of warming for phenological and distributional shifts. In contrast, relatively little is known about the physiological responses of plants and insect pollinators to climate warming and, in particular, how these responses might affect plant-pollinator interactions. Here, we summarize the direct physiological effects of temperature on flowering plants and pollinating insects to highlight ways in which plant and pollinator responses could affect floral resources for pollinators, and pollination success for plants, respectively. We also consider the overall effects of these responses on plant-pollinator interaction networks. Plant responses to warming, which include altered flower, nectar, and pollen production, could modify floral resource availability and reproductive output of pollinating insects. Similarly, pollinator responses, such as altered foraging activity, body size, and life span, could affect patterns of pollen flow and pollination success of flowering plants. As a result, network structure could be altered as interactions are gained and lost, weakened and strengthened, even without the gain or loss of species or temporal overlap. Future research that addresses not only how plant and pollinator physiology are affected by warming but also how responses scale up to affect interactions and networks should allow us to better understand and predict the effects of climate change on this important ecosystem service [Current Zoolo­gy 59 (3: 418–426, 2013].

Climate warming reduces fish production and benthic habitat in Lake Tanganyika, one of the most biodiverse freshwater ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Andrew S.; Gergurich, Elizabeth L.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; McGlue, Michael M.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Russell, James M.; Simmons, Jack D.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

2016-01-01

Warming climates are rapidly transforming lake ecosystems worldwide, but the breadth of changes in tropical lakes is poorly documented. Sustainable management of freshwater fisheries and biodiversity requires accounting for historical and ongoing stressors such as climate change and harvest intensity. This is problematic in tropical Africa, where records of ecosystem change are limited and local populations rely heavily on lakes for nutrition. Here, using a ∼1,500-y paleoecological record, we show that declines in fishery species and endemic molluscs began well before commercial fishing in Lake Tanganyika, Africa’s deepest and oldest lake. Paleoclimate and instrumental records demonstrate sustained warming in this lake during the last ∼150 y, which affects biota by strengthening and shallowing stratification of the water column. Reductions in lake mixing have depressed algal production and shrunk the oxygenated benthic habitat by 38% in our study areas, yielding fish and mollusc declines. Late-20th century fish fossil abundances at two of three sites were lower than at any other time in the last millennium and fell in concert with reduced diatom abundance and warming water. A negative correlation between lake temperature and fish and mollusc fossils over the last ∼500 y indicates that climate warming and intensifying stratification have almost certainly reduced potential fishery production, helping to explain ongoing declines in fish catches. Long-term declines of both benthic and pelagic species underscore the urgency of strategic efforts to sustain Lake Tanganyika’s extraordinary biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The anxieties of a science diplomat: field coproduction of climate knowledge and the rise and fall of Hans Ahlmann's polar warming".

Science.gov (United States)

Sörlin, Sverker

2011-01-01

In the decades between the world wars there were several attempts to document and explain perceived tendencies of atmospheric warming. Hans Ahlmann, a seminal figure in modern glaciology and a science policy adviser and diplomat, constructed a theory of "polar warming" using field results from glacier melting in the Arctic. This article aims to link the rise and fall of "polar warming" with Ahlmann's style of fieldwork. In Ahlmann's view, fieldwork should (1) enhance credibility of polar climate science by emulating laboratory methods and (2) secure knowledge in remote places through collaboration with local residents and fieldworkers. The bodily nature of this style of knowledge production turned out to be an asset in establishing Ahlmann's theory of polar warming but ultimately proved nonresilient to theories of anthropogenic climate change, which became influential from the 1950s onward.

Differentiated responses of apple tree floral phenology to global warming in contrasting climatic regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean-Michel eLegave

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation declines and heat accumulation increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift towards responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

Differentiated Responses of Apple Tree Floral Phenology to Global Warming in Contrasting Climatic Regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Legave, Jean-Michel; Guédon, Yann; Malagi, Gustavo; El Yaacoubi, Adnane; Bonhomme, Marc

2015-01-01

The responses of flowering phenology to temperature increases in temperate fruit trees have rarely been investigated in contrasting climatic regions. This is an appropriate framework for highlighting varying responses to diverse warming contexts, which would potentially combine chill accumulation (CA) declines and heat accumulation (HA) increases. To examine this issue, a data set was constituted in apple tree from flowering dates collected for two phenological stages of three cultivars in seven climate-contrasting temperate regions of Western Europe and in three mild regions, one in Northern Morocco and two in Southern Brazil. Multiple change-point models were applied to flowering date series, as well as to corresponding series of mean temperature during two successive periods, respectively determining for the fulfillment of chill and heat requirements. A new overview in space and time of flowering date changes was provided in apple tree highlighting not only flowering date advances as in previous studies but also stationary flowering date series. At global scale, differentiated flowering time patterns result from varying interactions between contrasting thermal determinisms of flowering dates and contrasting warming contexts. This may explain flowering date advances in most of European regions and in Morocco vs. stationary flowering date series in the Brazilian regions. A notable exception in Europe was found in the French Mediterranean region where the flowering date series was stationary. While the flowering duration series were stationary whatever the region, the flowering durations were far longer in mild regions compared to temperate regions. Our findings suggest a new warming vulnerability in temperate Mediterranean regions, which could shift toward responding more to chill decline and consequently experience late and extended flowering under future warming scenarios.

In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2011-10-01

Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman7_2011.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 3538 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman7_2011.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 In a warming climate... at UK Met Office N9 members SA Japan UKUSA USA Brazil* SA SASA * IBSA-Ocean In use Near future Far future VCM/UTCM ENSEMBLES Strong anthropogenically forced warming trends have been observed over southern Africa and are projected...

An unexpected role for mixotrophs in the response of peatland carbon cycling to climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Jassey, Vincent E J; Signarbieux, Constant; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Delarue, Frédéric; Fournier, Bertrand; Gilbert, Daniel; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Lara, Enrique; Mills, Robert T E; Mitchell, Edward A D; Payne, Richard J; Robroek, Bjorn J M

2015-11-25

Mixotrophic protists are increasingly recognized for their significant contribution to carbon (C) cycling. As phototrophs they contribute to photosynthetic C fixation, whilst as predators of decomposers, they indirectly influence organic matter decomposition. Despite these direct and indirect effects on the C cycle, little is known about the responses of peatland mixotrophs to climate change and the potential consequences for the peatland C cycle. With a combination of field and microcosm experiments, we show that mixotrophs in the Sphagnum bryosphere play an important role in modulating peatland C cycle responses to experimental warming. We found that five years of consecutive summer warming with peaks of +2 to +8°C led to a 50% reduction in the biomass of the dominant mixotrophs, the mixotrophic testate amoebae (MTA). The biomass of other microbial groups (including decomposers) did not change, suggesting MTA to be particularly sensitive to temperature. In a microcosm experiment under controlled conditions, we then manipulated the abundance of MTA, and showed that the reported 50% reduction of MTA biomass in the field was linked to a significant reduction of net C uptake (-13%) of the entire Sphagnum bryosphere. Our findings suggest that reduced abundance of MTA with climate warming could lead to reduced peatland C fixation.

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

2015-09-01

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global warming and prairie wetlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

1991-01-01

In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

Climate warming and estuarine and marine coastal ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, V.S.

1994-01-01

Estuaries are physically controlled, resilient coastal ecosystems harboring environmentally tolerant species in diluted seawater. Marine coastal systems are less stressed physically and contain some environmentally less tolerant species. Both systems are biologically productive and economically significant. Because of their complex structure and function, it is difficult to predict accurately the effects of climate change, but some broad generalizations can be made. If climate warming occurs, it will raise sea-level, heat shallow waters, and modify precipitation, wind, and water circulation patterns. Rapid sea-level rise could cause the loss of salt marshes, mangrove swamps, and coral reefs, thus diminishing the ecological roles of these highly productive systems. Warmer waters could eliminate heat-sensitive species from part of their geographical range while allowing heat-tolerant species to expand their range, depending on their ability to disperse. Most thermally influenced losses of species will probably only be local, but changed distributions may lead to changed community function. It is more difficult to predict the effects of modified precipitation, wind, and water circulation patterns, but changes could affect organisms dependent on such patterns for food production (e.g., in upwelling regions) or for retention in estuaries. Aquacultural and fishery-related enterprises would be affected negatively in some regions and positively in others. 73 refs

Climatic warming and potential demands for irrigation water in southwest Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brklacich, M.

1990-01-01

The potential impacts of global warming on demand for irrigation water in southwestern Ontario are discussed. The climatic change scenarios considered derive from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model, which suggests that the frost-free season in southwestern Ontario will be extended from the current 166 days to 223 days under a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The 1.76 million ha of agricultural land in southwestern Ontario was disaggregated into 365 unique land units, reflecting regional variability in soil quality, topography and climate. Analyses were conducted for individual crops on each of the land units, and results were aggregated to a regional level. Overall, a longer, warmer but relatively drier crop growing season could be expected in southwestern Ontario under this scenario. Climatic change impacts will vary from crop to crop, and will have a greater impact on corn yield than soybeans or wheat. Yield improvements stemming from irrigation should be greater with corn than with the other two crops. 16 refs., 1 tab

Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeppesen, E.; Meerhoff, M.; Holmgren, K.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; Declerck, Steven A.J.; De Meester, L.; Søndergaard, M.; Lauridsen, T.; Bjerring, R.; Conde-Porcuna, J-M.; Mazzeo, N.; Iglesias, C.; Reizenstein, M.; Malmquist, H.J.; Liu, Z.; Balayla, D.; Lazzaro, X.

2010-01-01

Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation

Disentangling Aerosol Cooling and Greenhouse Warming to Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, Trude; Leirvik, Thomas; Phillips, Petter; Lohmann, Ulrike; Wild, Martin

2015-04-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present a study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Modeling climate and fuel reduction impacts on mixed-conifer forest carbon stocks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew D. Hurteau; Timothy A. Robards; Donald Stevens; David Saah; Malcolm North; George W. Koch

2014-01-01

Quantifying the impacts of changing climatic conditions on forest growth is integral to estimating future forest carbon balance. We used a growth-and-yield model, modified for climate sensitivity, to quantify the effects of altered climate on mixed-conifer forest growth in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California. Estimates of forest growth and live tree carbon stocks were...

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both

In Situ Warming and Soil Venting to Enhance the Biodegradation of JP-4 in Cold Climates: A Critical Study and Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

1995-12-01

1178-1180 (1991). Atlas , Ronald M. and Richard Bartha . Microbial Ecology : Fundamentals and Applications. 3d ed. Redwood City CA: The Benjamin/Cummings...technique called bioventing. In cold climates, in situ bioremediation is limited to the summer when soil temperatures are sufficient to support microbial ...actively warmed the soil -- warm water circulation and heat tape; the other passively warmed the plot with insulatory covers. Microbial respiration (02

Global warming and climate change: control methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laal, M.; Aliramaie, A.

2008-01-01

This paper aimed at finding causes of global warming and ways to bring it under control. Data based on scientific opinion as given by synthesis reports of news, articles, web sites, and books. global warming is the observed and projected increases in average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Carbon dioxide and other air pollution that is collecting in the atmosphere like a thickening blanket, trapping the sun's heat and causing the planet to warm up. Pollution is one of the biggest man-made problems. Burning fossil fuels is the main factor of pollution. As average temperature increases, habitats, species and people are threatened by drought, changes in rainfall, altered seasons, and more violent storms and floods. Indeed the life cycle of nuclear power results in relatively little pollution. Energy efficiency, solar, wind and other renewable fuels are other weapons against global warming . Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is the major driving factor in global warming . Curtailing the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by reducing use of oil, gasoline, coal and employment of alternate energy, sources are the tools for keeping global warming under control. global warming can be slowed and stopped, with practical actions thal yield a cleaner, healthier atmosphere

The influence of climate-warming on the power production of Swiss hydroelectric power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaeppi, A.

2006-01-01

This article summarises an interview with Michael Piot of the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) on a study commissioned by the office that takes a look at the influence of a possible climate warming on water flow in the Swiss alpine area. In particular, the influence of such possible changes on the Swiss power generation industry are looked at. Prognoses for climate change are reviewed, as are the results of a study made by the SFOE on energy perspectives for the period up to the year 2035. Possible changes in the alpine climate are discussed and their influence on the water household of the region is examined. Possible further and more drastic changes in the period up to 2099 are briefly commented on

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

Science.gov (United States)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

The climatic warming up (the greenhouse effect); Le rechauffement climatique (l'effet de serre)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jancovici, J.M.; Jouzel, J. [CEA Saclay, Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Lorius, C. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, 38 - Grenoble (France)] [and others

2000-05-01

Facing the environmental and biological impacts of the climatic warming up, scientists and economists organized a debate on the subject. After a theoretical presentation of the greenhouse effect and the greenhouse gases, the climatic changes are discussed and simulation of the effects are presented. The today effects and tomorrow impacts on the agriculture and the public health are also presented. A synthesis is proposed to discuss the contribution of the energy policy and of the technological progress in measures of greenhouse effect control. (A.L.B.)

Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brient, Florent

2012-01-01

The last IPCC report affirms the predominant role of low cloud-radiative feedbacks in the inter-model spread of climate sensitivity. Understanding the mechanisms that control the behavior of low-level clouds is thus crucial. However, the complexity of coupled ocean-atmosphere models and the large number of processes potentially involved make the analysis of this response difficult. To simplify the analysis and to identify the most critical controls of cloud feedbacks, we analyze the cloud response to climate change simulated by the IPSL-CM5A model in a hierarchy of configurations. A comparison between three model configurations (coupled, atmospheric and aqua-planet) using the same physical parametrizations shows that the cloud response to global warming is dominated by a decrease of low clouds in regimes of moderate subsidence. Using a Single Column Model, forced by weak subsidence large-scale forcing, allows us to reproduce the vertical cloud profile predicted in the 3D model, as well as its response to climate change (if a stochastic forcing is added on vertical velocity). We analyze the sensitivity of this low-cloud response to external forcing and also to uncertain parameters of physical parameterizations involved on the atmospheric model. Through a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we highlight several mechanisms: (1) Robust: Over weak subsidence regimes, the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship predicts that a warmer atmosphere leads to a increase of the vertical MSE gradient, resulting on a strengthening of the import of low-MSE from the free atmosphere into the cloudy boundary layer. The MSE budget links changes of vertical advection and cloud radiative effects. (2) Physics Model Dependent: The coupling between shallow convection, turbulence and cloud schemes allows the intensification of low-MSE transport so that cloud radiative cooling becomes 'less necessary' to balance the energy budget (Robust positive low cloud-radiative feedback for the model). The

Climate Science Program at California State University, Northridge

Science.gov (United States)

Steele Cox, H.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.; Foley, B.

2012-12-01

Due to its interdisciplinary nature, climate science poses wide-ranging challenges for science and mathematics students seeking careers in this field. There is a compelling need for universities to provide coherent programs in climate science in order to train future climate scientists. With funding from NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE), California State University, Northridge (CSUN), is creating the CSUN Climate Science Program. An interdisciplinary team of faculty members is working in collaboration with UCLA, Santa Monica College and NASA/JPL partners to create a new curriculum in climate science. The resulting sequence of climate science courses, or Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC), is integrated into a Bachelor of Science degree program in the Applied Mathematical Sciences offered by the Mathematics Department at CSUN. The PMCC consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change and related careers. The students who choose to follow this program will be guided to enroll in the following sequence of courses for their 12 units of upper division electives: 1) A newly created course junior level course, Math 396CL, in applied mathematics which will introduce students to applications of vector calculus and differential equations to the study of thermodynamics and atmospheric dynamics. 2) An already existing course, Math 483, with new content on mathematical modeling specialized for this program; 3) An improved version of Phys 595CL on the mathematics and physics of climate change with emphasis on Radiative Transfer; 4) A choice of Geog 407 on Remote Sensing or Geog 416 on Climate Change with updated content to train the students in the analysis of satellite data obtained with the NASA Earth Observing System and instruction in the analysis of data obtained within a Geographical

Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

Science.gov (United States)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

2012-04-01

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato

Strategies for mitigation of global warming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meyer, Niels I

2009-01-01

The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed.......The paper analyses the international negotions on climate change leading up to COP15 in Copenhagen. Supplementary policies for mitigation of global warming are proposed....

National contributions to observed global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthews, H Damon; Graham, Tanya L; Keverian, Serge; Lamontagne, Cassandra; Seto, Donny; Smith, Trevor J

2014-01-01

There is considerable interest in identifying national contributions to global warming as a way of allocating historical responsibility for observed climate change. This task is made difficult by uncertainty associated with national estimates of historical emissions, as well as by difficulty in estimating the climate response to emissions of gases with widely varying atmospheric lifetimes. Here, we present a new estimate of national contributions to observed climate warming, including CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change, as well as methane, nitrous oxide and sulfate aerosol emissions While some countries’ warming contributions are reasonably well defined by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions, many countries have dominant contributions from land-use CO 2 and non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions, emphasizing the importance of both deforestation and agriculture as components of a country’s contribution to climate warming. Furthermore, because of their short atmospheric lifetime, recent sulfate aerosol emissions have a large impact on a country’s current climate contribution We show also that there are vast disparities in both total and per-capita climate contributions among countries, and that across most developed countries, per-capita contributions are not currently consistent with attempts to restrict global temperature change to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. (paper)

Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Warm Weather

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeffers, M. A.; Chaney, L.; Rugh, J. P.

2015-04-30

Passenger compartment climate control is one of the largest auxiliary loads on a vehicle. Like conventional vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) require climate control to maintain occupant comfort and safety, but cabin heating and air conditioning have a negative impact on driving range for all electric vehicles. Range reduction caused by climate control and other factors is a barrier to widespread adoption of EVs. Reducing the thermal loads on the climate control system will extend driving range, thereby reducing consumer range anxiety and increasing the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have investigated strategies for vehicle climate control load reduction, with special attention toward EVs. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing was conducted on two 2012 Ford Focus Electric vehicles to evaluate thermal management strategies for warm weather, including solar load reduction and cabin pre-ventilation. An advanced thermal test manikin was used to assess a zonal approach to climate control. In addition, vehicle thermal analysis was used to support testing by exploring thermal load reduction strategies, evaluating occupant thermal comfort, and calculating EV range impacts. Through stationary cooling tests and vehicle simulations, a zonal cooling configuration demonstrated range improvement of 6%-15%, depending on the drive cycle. A combined cooling configuration that incorporated thermal load reduction and zonal cooling strategies showed up to 33% improvement in EV range.

Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2009-04-01

While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in

Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA

Science.gov (United States)

James A. Lutz; Jan W. van Wagtendonk; Andrea E. Thode; Jay D. Miller; Jerry F. Franklin

2009-01-01

Continental-scale studies of western North America have attributed recent increases in annual area burned and fire size to a warming climate, but these studies have focused on large fires and have left the issues of fire severity and ignition frequency unaddressed. Lightning ignitions, any of which could burn a large area given appropriate conditions for fire spread,...

Military Implications of Global Warming.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

Projected changes over western Canada using convection-permitting regional climate model and the pseudo-global warming method

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Y.; Kurkute, S.; Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Results from the General Circulation Models (GCMs) suggest more frequent and more severe extreme rain events in a climate warmer than the present. However, current GCMs cannot accurately simulate extreme rainfall events of short duration due to their coarse model resolutions and parameterizations. This limitation makes it difficult to provide the detailed quantitative information for the development of regional adaptation and mitigation strategies. Dynamical downscaling using nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are able to capture key regional and local climate processes with an affordable computational cost. Recent studies have demonstrated that the downscaling of GCM results with weather-permitting mesoscale models, such as the pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique, could be a viable and economical approach of obtaining valuable climate change information on regional scales. We have conducted a regional climate 4-km Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) simulation with one domain covering the whole western Canada, for a historic run (2000-2015) and a 15-year future run to 2100 and beyond with the PGW forcing. The 4-km resolution allows direct use of microphysics and resolves the convection explicitly, thus providing very convincing spatial detail. With this high-resolution simulation, we are able to study the convective mechanisms, specifically the control of convections over the Prairies, the projected changes of rainfall regimes, and the shift of the convective mechanisms in a warming climate, which has never been examined before numerically at such large scale with such high resolution.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2017-09-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

1992-10-01

One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

Soil respiration, microbial biomass and exoenzyme activity in switchgrass stands under nitrogen fertilization management and climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Jian, S.; Li, J.; de Koff, J.; Celada, S.; Mayes, M. A.; Wang, G.; Guo, C.

2016-12-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), as a model bioenergy crop, received nitrogen fertilizers for increasing its biomass yields. Studies rarely investigate the interactive effects of nitrogen fertilization and climate warming on soil microbial activity and carbon cycling in switchgrass cropping systems. Enhanced nitrogen availability under fertilization can alter rates of soil organic matter decomposition and soil carbon emissions to the atmosphere and thus have an effect on climate change. Here, we assess soil CO2 emission, microbial biomass and exoenzyme activities in two switchgrass stands with no fertilizer and 60 lbs N / acre. Soils were incubated at 15 ºC and 20 ºC for 180-day. Dry switchgrass plant materials were added to incubation jars and the 13C stable isotopic probing technique was used to monitor soil CO2 respiration derived from relatively labile litter and indigenous soil. Measurements of respiration, δ13C of respiration, microbial biomass carbon and exoenzyme activity were performed on days 1, 5, 10, 15, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180. Soil respiration rate was greater in the samples incubated at 20 ºC as compared to those incubated at 15 ºC. Exoenzyme activities were significantly altered by warming, litter addition and nitrogen fertilization. There was a significant interactive effect of nitrogen fertilization and warming on the proportion of CO2 respired from soils such that nitrogen fertilization enhanced warming-induced increase by 12.0% (Pmineralization. Fertilization increased soil microbial biomass carbon at both temperatures (9.0% at 15 ºC and 14.5% at 20 ºC). Our preliminary analysis suggested that warming effects on enhanced soil respiration can be further increased with elevated fertilizer input via greater microbial biomass and exoenzyme activity. In addition to greater biomass yield under N fertilization, this study informs potential soil carbon loss from stimulated soil respiration under nitrogen fertilization and warming in

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schewe

2011-03-01

Full Text Available We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.

A real-time Global Warming Index.

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmud

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM_0.1, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM_2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH₄NO₃. In general, climate

Global warming

CERN Document Server

Hulme, M

1998-01-01

Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

A statistical model for determining impact of wildland fires on Particulate Matter (PM2.5) in Central California aided by satellite imagery of smoke

Science.gov (United States)

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Donald Schweizer; Ricardo Cisneros; Trent Procter; Mark Ruminski; Leland Tarnay

2015-01-01

As the climate in California warms and wildfires become larger and more severe, satellite-based observational tools are frequently used for studying impact of those fires on air quality. However little objective work has been done to quantify the skill these satellite observations of smoke plumes have in predicting impacts to PM2.5 concentrations...

The Appropriateness of a California Student and Staff Survey for Measuring Middle School Climate. REL 2014-039

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, Thomas; Voight, Adam

2014-01-01

A growing number of states and school districts use school climate assessments in progress reporting systems and are interested in incorporating these assessments into accountability systems. This analysis of response data from middle school students and teachers on the California School Climate, Health, and Learning Survey examines the…

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary

Modelling Interglacial Climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate......Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system......, with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover...

Microbial decomposers not constrained by climate history along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Nameer R; Khalili, Banafshe; Martiny, Jennifer B H; Allison, Steven D

2018-06-01

Microbial decomposers mediate the return of CO 2 to the atmosphere by producing extracellular enzymes to degrade complex plant polymers, making plant carbon available for metabolism. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. We analyzed mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzyme activities, and enzyme temperature sensitivities in grassland litter transplanted along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California. Microbial community composition was manipulated by caging litter within bags made of nylon membrane that prevent microbial immigration. To test whether grassland microbes were constrained by climate history, half of the bags were inoculated with local microbial communities native to each gradient site. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbial communities were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions across the gradient, although microbial communities across our gradient may be restricted in their ability to degrade different types of litter. We did find some evidence that local microbial communities were optimized based on climate, but local microbial taxa that proliferated after inoculation into litterbags did not enhance litter decomposition. Our results suggest that microbial community composition does not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system, but optimization to particular resource environments may act as more general constraints on microbial communities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A 1200 Year Alkenone-based Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Productivity in the Southern California Current System from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Present

Science.gov (United States)

O'Mara, N. A.; Kelly, C. S.; Herbert, T.

2017-12-01

Laminated sediment cores taken from the San Lazaro Basin (SLB) (25.18N, 112.66W) located off the coast of Baja California in the subtropical eastern Pacific were geochemically analyzed for alkenone and sterol biomarkers to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and marine productivity from 850-1980 CE. High sedimentation rates, low bottom water dissolved oxygen, and high marine productivity in combination with the San Lazaro Basin's location within the dynamic transition zone between the tropical and subtropical eastern Pacific, make it a prime location to study variability of tropical and subtropical modes of climate variability. This study focuses on the impacts and variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the subtropical eastern Pacific. SST and coccolithophore productivity (n=730) for 2 mm sections of sediment corresponding to 1 measurement every 1.8 years were reconstructed using the Uk'37 unsaturation index and C37 alkenone concentration. The high resolution of this record allowed for the analysis of variability of SST and productivity on decadal timescales. Brassicasterol concentrations were calculated for a limited number of samples (n=44) to assess diatom productivity. High spectral power was found at periods of 20-30 years in SST and productivity records indicating a strong influence of the PDO on the SLB, making this the first marine based record directly relevant to PDO reconstructions that continuously spans the last millennium. Cool and productive (warm and less productive) waters were observed in the southern California Current in the Medieval Climate Anomaly 900-1200 CE (Little Ice Age 1400-1800 CE) supporting previous reconstructions that warmer (cooler) SST are linked to both reduced (enhanced) phytoplankton productivity. Additionally, cool (warm) SST were also associated with dry (wet) conditions in the American Southwest indicating that changes in the PDO has had a significant impact on drought

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elisaveta P. Petkova

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Science.gov (United States)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

2014-01-01

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Evaluating the effects of ideology on public understanding of climate change science: how to improve communication across ideological divides?

Science.gov (United States)

Zia, Asim; Todd, Anne Marie

2010-11-01

While ideology can have a strong effect on citizen understanding of science, it is unclear how ideology interacts with other complicating factors, such as college education, which influence citizens' comprehension of information. We focus on public understanding of climate change science and test the hypotheses: [H1] as citizens' ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, concern for global warming decreases; [H2] citizens with college education and higher general science literacy tend to have higher concern for global warming; and [H3] college education does not increase global warming concern for conservative ideologues. We implemented a survey instrument in California's San Francisco Bay Area, and employed regression models to test the effects of ideology and other socio-demographic variables on citizen concern about global warming, terrorism, the economy, health care and poverty. We are able to confirm H1 and H3, but reject H2. Various strategies are discussed to improve the communication of climate change science across ideological divides.

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

Science.gov (United States)

Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

2015-06-01

Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using CAM3 and the Alkenone Method to Understand how Pliocene SST's Affect California and Other Climates Adjacent to Upwelling Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Searles, Z. A.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Dekens, P. S.

2008-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report established with 90% confidence that anthropogenic climate change will result in a warmer world. In order to more fully understand possible future climate, past analogues of warm periods should be analyzed. The early Pliocene is an appropriate analogue because the continental configuration was similar to today and CO2 levels were comparable to present (~100ppm higher than pre-anthropogenic levels). This project has two objectives: 1.To test the atmospheric sensitivity to USGS PRISM2 dataset revised to better approximate proxy data indicating warmer SST's in upwelling regions and 2. To provide early-Pliocene (2.7- 3.5 Ma) SST estimates for ODP site 1018 on the California Margin (36°59.4'N, 123°16.5'W) using the UK'37 SST proxy. Recent UK'37 proxy data reveals that PRISM2 underestimates SST's in Pacific and Atlantic coastal upwelling regions. The sensitivity of the atmosphere to significantly warmer SST's in upwelling regions was tested using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). Initial conditions were supplied by the USGS PRISM2 project and include Pliocene SST's, vegetation cover, sea level height, topography, marine and continental ice extent. Pliocene SST's along the Californian, Peruvian, North African and South African margin were modified to reflect proxy observations from 4 sites. The lack of observational coverage (1 data point per region) required interpolation of the areal extent of the SST warming anomaly indicated by the proxies. Experiment results show increased cumulative precipitation and humidity in regions where the original PRISM2 predicted drying. The predicted North American increase in precipitation is in better agreement with geologic proxies indicating wetter conditions. Warmer SST's also causes weaker wind velocities along the North American, Peruvian, and North African margins, and stronger winds along the

Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lobell, David B; Field, Christopher B

2007-01-01

Changes in the global production of major crops are important drivers of food prices, food security and land use decisions. Average global yields for these commodities are determined by the performance of crops in millions of fields distributed across a range of management, soil and climate regimes. Despite the complexity of global food supply, here we show that simple measures of growing season temperatures and precipitation-spatial averages based on the locations of each crop-explain ∼30% or more of year-to-year variations in global average yields for the world's six most widely grown crops. For wheat, maize and barley, there is a clearly negative response of global yields to increased temperatures. Based on these sensitivities and observed climate trends, we estimate that warming since 1981 has resulted in annual combined losses of these three crops representing roughly 40 Mt or $5 billion per year, as of 2002. While these impacts are small relative to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate already occurring negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale

Comparing and contrasting Holocene and Eemian warm periods with greenhouse-gas-induced warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacCracken, M.C.; Kutzbach, J.

1990-01-01

Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses to both types of forcing, in terms of land/ocean and latitudinal averages, are also compared. The zonal average and annual (or seasonal) average radiation fluxes associated with the different-from-present orbital conditions that existed for those interglacials are compared to the radiation flux associated with CO 2 -induced warming. There are some similarities but also significant differences in the two types of radiation flux perturbations, and there are both similarities and differences in the simulated climatic responses

The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2006-12-15

The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for 'present' climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea-ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within

Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming and Aerosol Cooling to Reveal Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Design method of high performance precast external walls for warm climate by multi-objective optimization analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baglivo, Cristina; Congedo, Paolo Maria

2015-01-01

Taking into account the global environmental problems, there is the urgent need to reduce energy consumption and the greenhouse gas emissions in the construction sector. Environmental awareness can be achieved through the extensive application of precast systems in buildings construction. A multi-criteria analysis has been used to obtain energy-efficient precast walls for Zero Energy Building in warm climate focusing on eco-friendly building materials. The modeFRONTIER optimization tool, with the use of computational procedures developed in Matlab, has been used to assess the thermal dynamics of building components. The optimization has been carried out in terms of steady thermal transmittance, periodic thermal transmittance, decrement factor, time shift, areal heat capacity, thermal admittance, surface mass, small thickness, eco sustainability score, light-weight and costs. The best sequences of layers show repetitive features: high surface mass for the first layer (internal side), followed by eco-friendly insulating materials for the middle layer and common insulating materials for the outer layer. The results illustrate that it is possible to obtain high performance precast multi-layered walls also with light and thin solutions; in particular, the superficial mass and the internal areal heat capacity have an important role to obtain the best performance in the warm climate. - Highlights: • Environmental awareness through the application of prefabrication systems. • The precast allows important benefits compared to traditional walls build in situ. • At the end of their useful life, the precast can be re-used. • Precast walls with very high efficiency for warm climates. • High internal areal heat capacity avoids events of overheating/cooling down.

How Will Climate Warming Affect Non-Native Pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus Populations in the U.K.?

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Grzegorz Zięba

Full Text Available Of the non-native fishes introduced to the U.K., the pumpkinseed is one of six species predicted to benefit from the forecasted climate warming conditions. To demonstrate the potential response of adults and their progeny to a water temperature increase, investigations of parental pumpkinseed acclimatization, reproduction and YOY over-wintering were carried out in outdoor experimental ponds under ambient and elevated water temperature regimes. No temperature effects were observed on either adult survivorship and growth, and none of the assessed reproductive activity variables (total spawning time, spawning season length, number of spawning bouts appeared to be responsible for the large differences observed in progeny number and biomass. However, it was demonstrated in a previous study [Zięba G. et al., 2010] that adults in the heated ponds began spawning earlier than those of the ambient ponds. Ambient ponds produced 2.8× more progeny than the heated ponds, but these progeny were significantly smaller, probably due to their late hatching date, and subsequently suffered very high mortality over the first winter. Pumpkinseed in the U.K. will clearly benefit from climate warming through earlier seasonal reproduction, resulting in larger progeny going into winter, and as a result, higher over-winter survivorship would be expected relative to that which occurs under the present climatic regime.

Pimping climate change: Richard Branson, global warming, and the performance of green capitalism

OpenAIRE

Scott Prudham

2009-01-01

On 21 September 2006 UK über-entrepreneur and Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson pledged approximately £1.6 billion, the equivalent of all the profits from Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Trains for the next ten years, to fighting climate change. Since then, Branson has restated his commitment to action on global warming, including investment in technologies for sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In this paper, I critically examine and engage with Branson’s announcements as a spec...

Warming Climate and Changing Societies - a Challenge or an Opportunity for Reindeer Herding?

Science.gov (United States)

Käyhkö, J.; Horstkotte, T.; Kivinen, S.; Vehmas, J.; Oksanen, L.; Forbes, B. C.; Johansen, B.; Jepsen, J. U.; Markkola, A.; Pulliainen, J.; Olofsson, J.; Oksanen, T.; Utsi, T. A.; Korpimäki, E.; Menard, C.; Ericson, L.

2015-12-01

The Arctic region will warm more rapidly than the global mean, influencing dramatically the northern ecosystems. Simultaneously, our societies transform towards urbanized, highly educated, service-based culture, where a decreasing population will gain its livelihood from primary production. We study various ecosystem interactions in a changing climate and integrate these with reindeer husbandry and the indigenous Sámi culture dependent on it1. Potential climate impacts include the transformation of arctic-alpine tundra to dense scrubland with conceivable consequences to reindeer husbandry, but also global warming due to decreasing albedo. The social-ecological system (SES) of reindeer husbandry includes administrative and ecological processes that do not always correspond (Figure 1). Consequently, management priorities and administration may conflict with local social and ecological processes, bringing about risks of environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity and defeat of traditional livelihoods. We hypothesize the plausibility to support the indigenous reindeer herding livelihood against rapid external changes by utilizing the migratory reindeer grazing system of the Sámi as a management tool for sustaining the high-albedo tundra and mitigating global warming. Our first-of-a-kind satellite-based high resolution vegetation map covering Northern Fennoscandia allows detailed management plans. Our ecological research demonstrates the important role of herbivory on arctic vegetation communities. Interactive workshops with reindeer herders offer indigenous knowledge of state and changes of the ecosystems, and reflect the threats and expectations of the herders. We are currently building models of the complex social-ecological system of Northern Fennoscandia and will report the first findings of the exercise. 1 www.ncoetundra.utu.fi Figure 1. The scales of administrative and ecological processes do not always coincide. This may bring about challenges in managing

Climate change affects low trophic level marine consumers: warming decreases copepod size and abundance.

Science.gov (United States)

Garzke, Jessica; Ismar, Stefanie M H; Sommer, Ulrich

2015-03-01

Concern about climate change has re-ignited interest in universal ecological responses to temperature variations: (1) biogeographical shifts, (2) phenology changes, and (3) size shifts. In this study we used copepods as model organisms to study size responses to temperature because of their central role in the pelagic food web and because of the ontogenetic length constancy between molts, which facilitates the definition of size of distinct developmental stages. In order to test the expected temperature-induced shifts towards smaller body size and lower abundances under warming conditions, a mesocosm experiment using plankton from the Baltic Sea at three temperature levels (ambient, ambient +4 °C, ambient -4 °C) was performed in summer 2010. Overall copepod and copepodit abundances, copepod size at all life stages, and adult copepod size in particular, showed significant temperature effects. As expected, zooplankton peak abundance was lower in warm than in ambient treatments. Copepod size-at-immature stage significantly increased in cold treatments, while adult size significantly decreased in warm treatments.

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

Science.gov (United States)

Metcalf, Jessica L.; Turney, Chris; Barnett, Ross; Martin, Fabiana; Bray, Sarah C.; Vilstrup, Julia T.; Orlando, Ludovic; Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo; Loponte, Daniel; Medina, Matías; De Nigris, Mariana; Civalero, Teresa; Fernández, Pablo Marcelo; Gasco, Alejandra; Duran, Victor; Seymour, Kevin L.; Otaola, Clara; Gil, Adolfo; Paunero, Rafael; Prevosti, Francisco J.; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Wheeler, Jane C.; Borrero, Luis; Austin, Jeremy J.; Cooper, Alan

2016-01-01

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts. PMID:27386563

Agro-climate Projections for a Warming Alaska

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Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.

2017-12-01

In the context of greenhouse warming, agro-meteorological indices suggest widespread disruption to current food supply chains during the coming decades. Much of the western United States is projected to have more dry days, and the southern states are likely to experience greater plant heat stress. Considering these difficulties, it could become necessary for more northerly locations, including Alaska, to increase agricultural production to support local communities and offset supply shortages. This study employs multiple dynamically downscaled regional climate model simulations from the CMIP5 to investigate projected changes to agro-climate conditions across Alaska. The metric used here, the start-of-field operations index (SFO), identifies the date during which the sum of daily average temperature, starting from January 1st and excluding negative values, exceeds 200 ˚C. Using the current trajectory of greenhouse radiative forcing, RCP 8.5, this study indicates a doubling to 71,960 km2 of Alaska land area that meets the required thermal accumulation for crop production when comparing a historical period (1981-2010) to the future (2071-2100). The SFO shows a correlation coefficient of 0.91 with the independently produced green-up index for Fairbanks from 1981-2010. Among the land areas that currently reach the necessary thermal accumulation, there is a projected increase in growing season length (63-82 days), earlier date of last spring frost (28-48 days), and later date of first autumn frost (24-47 days) across the five USDA Census of Agriculture areas for Alaska. Both an average statewide decrease of annual frost days (71 fewer), and an increase in days with extreme warmth (28 more) are also projected.

Global Deliberative Democracy and Climate Change: Insights from World Wide Views on Global Warming in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Riedy

2011-12-01

Full Text Available On 26 September 2009, approximately 4,000 citizens in 38 countries participated in World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWViews. WWViews was an ambitious first attempt to convene a deliberative mini-public at a global scale, giving people from around the world an opportunity to deliberate on international climate policy and to make recommendations to the decision-makers meeting at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen (COP-15 in December 2009. In this paper, we examine the role that deliberative mini-publics can play in facilitating the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response. We pursue this intent through a reflective evaluation of the Australian component of the World Wide Views on Global Warming project (WWViews. Our evaluation of WWViews is mixed. The Australian event was delivered with integrity and feedback from Australian participants was almost universally positive. Globally, WWViews demonstrated that it is feasible to convene a global mini-public to deliberate on issues of global relevance, such as climate change. On the other hand, the contribution of WWViews towards the emergence of a global deliberative system for climate change response was limited and it achieved little influence on global climate change policy. We identify lessons for future global mini-publics, including the need to prioritise the quality of deliberation and provide flexibility to respond to cultural and political contexts in different parts of the world. Future global mini-publics may be more influential if they seek to represent discourse diversity in addition to demographic profiles, use designs that maximise the potential for transmission from public to empowered space, run over longer time periods to build momentum for change and experiment with ways of bringing global citizens together in a single process instead of discrete national events.