WorldWideScience

Sample records for warm atlantic period

  1. The Once and Future North Atlantic: How the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Can Increase Stakeholder Preparedness in a Warming World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, P.; de Mutsert, K.

    2013-12-01

    Paleoclimatic reconstructions, particularly from periods that may serve as an analog to the present and future greenhouse-driven warming, are increasingly being used to validate climate models as well as to provide constraints on broad impacts such as global temperature and sea level change. However, paleoclimatic data remains under-utilized in decision-making processes by stakeholders, who typically rely on scenarios produced by computer models or naive extrapolation of present trends. We hope to increase the information available to stakeholders by incorporating paleoclimatic data from the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ~3ma) into a fisheries model of the North Atlantic. North Atlantic fisheries are economically important and are expected to be sensitive to climatic change. State of the art climate models remain unable to realistically simulate the North Atlantic, both over the observational record as well as during times in the geologic past such as the mPWP. Given that the mPWP shares many of the same boundary conditions as those likely to be seen in the near future, we seek to answer the question 'What if the climate of the future looks more like the climate of the past?' relative to what state of the art computer models currently project. To that end we have created a suite of future North Atlantic Ocean scenarios using output from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 modeling experiments, as well as the PRISM group's Mid-Pliocene ocean reconstruction. We use these scenarios to drive an ecosystem-based fisheries model using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software to identify differences between the scenarios as the North Atlantic Ocean changes through time. Additionally, we examine the spatial component of these differences by using the Ecospace module of EwE. Whereas the Ecosim realizations are intended to capture the dynamic response to changing oceanographic parameters (SST, SSS, DO) over time, the Ecospace experiments are intended to explore the impact of different

  2. The Danish fish fauna during the warm Atlantic period (ca. 7000-3900 bc): Forerunner of future changes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enghoff, I.B.; MacKenzie, Brian; Eg Nielsen, Einar

    2007-01-01

    Vast amounts of fish bone lie preserved in Denmark's soil as remains of prehistoric fishing. Fishing was particularly important during the Atlantic period (ca. 7000-3900 bc, i.e. part of the Mesolithic Stone Age). At this time, sea temperature and salinity were higher in waters around Denmark than...... today. Analyses of more than 100,000 fish bones from various settlements from this period document which fish species were common in coastal Danish waters at this time. This study provides a basis for comparing the fish fauna in the warm Stone Age sea with the tendencies seen and predicted today...... frequently caught species in the Danish Stone Age sea. These results demonstrate that major changes to the fish fauna near Denmark will occur as climate changes. However, exploitable cod populations can potentially be maintained in waters near Denmark, including the North Sea, but the vulnerability...

  3. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisz, Mary; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, Peter

    2015-01-01

    the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we...... projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter......Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating...

  4. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  5. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-01-01

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

  6. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  7. Coherent Multidecadal Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability in the North Atlantic: Blocking Corresponds with Warm Subpolar Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa M.; Rhines, P. B.; Worthen, D. L.

    2012-01-01

    Winters with frequent atmospheric blocking, in a band of latitudes from Greenland to Western Europe, are found to persist over several decades and correspond to a warm North Atlantic Ocean. This is evident in atmospheric reanalysis data, both modern and for the full 20th century. Blocking is approximately in phase with Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability (AMV). Wintertime atmospheric blocking involves a highly distorted jetstream, isolating large regions of air from the westerly circulation. It influences the ocean through windstress-curl and associated air/sea heat flux. While blocking is a relatively high-frequency phenomenon, it is strongly modulated over decadal timescales. The blocked regime (weaker ocean gyres, weaker air-sea heat flux, paradoxically increased transport of warm subtropical waters poleward) contributes to the warm phase of AMV. Atmospheric blocking better describes the early 20thC warming and 1996-2010 warm period than does the NAO index. It has roots in the hemispheric circulation and jet stream dynamics. Subpolar Atlantic variability covaries with distant AMOC fields: both these connections may express the global influence of the subpolar North Atlantic ocean on the global climate system.

  8. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  9. Warm Water Pathways in the Northeastern North Atlantic ACCE RAFOS Float Data Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Furey, Heather

    2001-01-01

    ...). The RAFOS float component of ACCE, entitled "Warm Water Pathways and Intergyre Exchange in the Northeastern North Atlantic", was designed to measure the warm water currents entering the northeastern...

  10. Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faško, Pavel; Bochníček, Oliver; Markovič, Ladislav; Švec, Marek

    2016-04-01

    The scenarios of climate change caused by human activity show that frequency of occurrence and extent of heat waves in the interior of Europe is increasing. Among the most exposed regions in this regard should the area of southeastern and eastern Austria and south-western Slovakia. The relatively faster increase in the number of heat waves in this area is related also to potential desertification in this region just east of the Alps, since during summer, weather fronts advancing from the west are consequently losing their original features and moderating influence. Summer weather patterns for this area should in the future more closely remind climate typical for some inland areas of southwestern, southern and southeastern Europe. A certain shift of climate zones from south to north should thus modify future climate and Slovakia. Despite the complex natural conditions the existing trends derived from results of meteorological measurements and observations are clear and they confirm warming of climate in this region. Observations and measurements in the recent years of the 21st century confirm, that heat waves are no longer rare phenomenon during summer, but are systematically appearing even in colder regions of northern Slovakia. What is very remarkable and will be necessary to pay more attention to, is the fact that these heat waves are expanding into previously unaffected areas, associated with the lack of rainfall and drought, on larger regional scale. In this study heat wave periods and individual heat events and days are statistically identified in the time series characteristics of air temperature at selected meteorological stations for the period from the mid-20th century until 2015, in case of available historical data even for longer period.

  11. Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2011-01-01

    Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

  12. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-01-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

  13. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  14. Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

    2018-05-01

    The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

  15. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

    2017-04-10

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  16. Linking The Atlantic Gyres: Warm, Saline Intrusions From Subtropical Atlantic to the Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa M.; Rhines, P. B.

    2010-01-01

    Ocean state estimates from SODA assimilation are analyzed to understand how major shifts in the North Atlantic Current path relate to AMOC, and how these shifts are related to large scale ocean circulation and surface forcing. These complement surface-drifter and altimetry data showing the same events. SODA data indicate that the warm water limb of AMOC, reaching to at least 600m depth, expanded in density/salinity space greatly after 1995, and that Similar events occurred in the late 1960s and around 1980. While there were large changes in the upper limb, there was no immediate response in the dense return flow, at least not in SODA, however one would expect a delayed response of increasing AMOC due to the positive feedback from increased salt transport. These upper limb changes are winddriven, involving changes in the eastern subpolar gyre, visible in the subduction of low potential vorticity waters. The subtropical gyre has been weak during the times of the northward intrusions of the highly saline subtropical waters, while the NAO index has been neutral or in a negative phase. The image of subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange through teleconnections within the AMOC overturning cell will be described.

  17. Amplified North Atlantic Warming in the Late Pliocene by Changes in Arctic Gateways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Jahn, A.; Feng, R.; Brady, E. C.; Hu, A.; Lofverstrom, M.

    2017-12-01

    Reconstructions of the late Pliocene (mid-Piacenzian, 3.3 - 3.0 million years ago) sea surface temperature (SST) find much warmer conditions in the North Atlantic than modern. The much warmer SSTs, up to 8.8°C from sites with good dating and replicates from several different types of proxies, have been difficult for climate models to reproduce. Even with the slow feedbacks of a reduced Greenland ice sheet and expansion of boreal forests to the Arctic Ocean over Canada and Eurasia, models cannot warm the North Atlantic sufficiently to match the reconstructed SSTs. An enhancement of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the late Pliocene, proposed as a possible mechanism based on ocean core records of δ13C, also is not present in the model simulations. Here, we present CESM simulations using a new reconstruction of late Pliocene paleogeography that has the Bering Strait (BS) and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) Straits closed. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the AMOC, by inhibiting freshwater (FW) transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading to warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. The cutoff of the short export route through the CAA results in a more saline Labrador and south Greenland Sea with increased deep convection. At the same time, as all FW now leaves the Arctic east of Greenland, there is a freshening of and decreased deepwater formation in the Norwegian Sea. Overall, the AMOC strengthens. This past time period has implications for a future Earth under more responsible scenarios of emissions. Late Pliocene atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are estimated to have ranged between 350 and 450 ppmv and the paleogeography is relatively similar to modern. Our study indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the

  18. ON THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING ON ATLANTIC HURRICANE FREQUENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Hosseini

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane’s intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR. The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82. In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

  19. On the Influence of Global Warming on Atlantic Hurricane Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, S. R.; Scaioni, M.; Marani, M.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, the possible connection between the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes to the climate change, mainly the variation in the Atlantic Ocean surface temperature has been investigated. The correlation between the observed hurricane frequency for different categories of hurricane's intensity and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been examined over the Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis Regions (ACR). The results suggest that in general, the frequency of hurricanes have a high correlation with SST. In particular, the frequency of extreme hurricanes with Category 5 intensity has the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.82). In overall, the analyses in this work demonstrates the influence of the climate change condition on the Atlantic hurricanes and suggest a strong correlation between the frequency of extreme hurricanes and SST in the ACR.

  20. The Atmospheric Response to a Future Warming Deficit in North Atlantic SSTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gervais, M.; Shaman, J. L.; Kushnir, Y.

    2017-12-01

    As SSTs increase globally over the 21st century, global climate models project a significant deficit in warming within the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean. This study investigates the impact of this warming deficit on atmosphere circulation. A series of large ensemble experiments are conducted using the Community Atmosphere Model 5 forced with specified sea ice and SSTs for the early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) 21stcentury. SST and sea ice fields from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble experiment are used as boundary conditions for the control simulations. Experiments with either a filled or deepened warming hole are conducted by adding a SST perturbation field to these time-varying SST boundary conditions. Results from these experiments demonstrate that the warming hole has significant local and remote impacts on the atmosphere. Filling (deepening) the warming hole results in a local increase (decrease) in turbulent heat fluxes relative to the control run and consequentially an increase (decrease) in temperature in the overlying lower troposphere that spreads over Europe. There are significant impacts on the location and strength of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific jets as well as on the North Atlantic Oscillation. These impacts of the warming hole on both the mean state and variability of the atmosphere have important implications for sensible weather in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular over Europe.

  1. Increased risk of a shutdown of ocean convection posed by warm North Atlantic summers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oltmanns, Marilena; Karstensen, Johannes; Fischer, Jürgen

    2018-04-01

    A shutdown of ocean convection in the subpolar North Atlantic, triggered by enhanced melting over Greenland, is regarded as a potential transition point into a fundamentally different climate regime1-3. Noting that a key uncertainty for future convection resides in the relative importance of melting in summer and atmospheric forcing in winter, we investigate the extent to which summer conditions constrain convection with a comprehensive dataset, including hydrographic records that are over a decade in length from the convection regions. We find that warm and fresh summers, characterized by increased sea surface temperatures, freshwater concentrations and melting, are accompanied by reduced heat and buoyancy losses in winter, which entail a longer persistence of the freshwater near the surface and contribute to delaying convection. By shortening the time span for the convective freshwater export, the identified seasonal dynamics introduce a potentially critical threshold that is crossed when substantial amounts of freshwater from one summer are carried over into the next and accumulate. Warm and fresh summers in the Irminger Sea are followed by particularly short convection periods. We estimate that in the winter 2010-2011, after the warmest and freshest Irminger Sea summer on our record, 40% of the surface freshwater was retained.

  2. Effects of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age on the hydrology of Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markonis, Y.; Kossieris, P.; Lykou, A.; Koutsoyiannis, D.

    2012-04-01

    Medieval Warm Period (950 - 1250) and Little Ice Age (1450 - 1850) are the most recent periods that reflect the magnitude of natural climate variability. As their names suggest, the first one was characterized by higher temperatures and a generally moister climate, while the opposite happened during the second period. Although their existence is well documented for Northern Europe and North America, recent findings suggest strong evidence in lower latitudes as well. Here we analyze qualitatively the influence of these climatic fluctuations on the hydrological cycle all over the Mediterranean basin, highlighting the spatial characteristics of precipitation and runoff. We use both qualitative estimates from literature review in the field of paleoclimatology and statistical analysis of proxy data series. We investigate possible regional patterns and possible tele-connections with large scale atmospheric circulation phenomena such as North Atlantic Oscillation, Siberian High, African Sahel Rainfall and Indian Monsoon.

  3. Comparing and contrasting Holocene and Eemian warm periods with greenhouse-gas-induced warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacCracken, M.C.; Kutzbach, J.

    1990-01-01

    Periods of the past that are estimated to have been warmer than present are of great potential interest for comparison with simulations of future climates associated with greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Certain features of the climates of the mid-Holocene and Eemian periods, both interglacial maxima, are described. The simulated climatic responses to both types of forcing, in terms of land/ocean and latitudinal averages, are also compared. The zonal average and annual (or seasonal) average radiation fluxes associated with the different-from-present orbital conditions that existed for those interglacials are compared to the radiation flux associated with CO 2 -induced warming. There are some similarities but also significant differences in the two types of radiation flux perturbations, and there are both similarities and differences in the simulated climatic responses

  4. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on precipitation and temperature in Florida during North Atlantic cold spells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donders, Timme H. [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); TNO Geological Survey of the Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Boer, Hugo Jan de; Dekker, Stefan C. [Utrecht University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80115, Utrecht (Netherlands); Finsinger, Walter; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike [Utrecht University, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Utrecht (Netherlands); Grimm, Eric C. [Research and Collections Center, Illinois State Museum, Springfield, IL (United States); Reichart, Gert Jan [Utrecht University, Geochemistry, Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, P.O. Box 80021, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-01-15

    Recurrent phases of increased pine at Lake Tulane, Florida have previously been related to strong stadials terminated by so-called Heinrich events. The climatic significance of these pine phases has been interpreted in different ways. Using a pollen-climate inference model, we quantified the climate changes and consistently found that mean summer precipitation (P{sub JJA}) increased (0.5-0.9 mm/day) and mean November temperature increased (2.0-3.0 C) during pine phases coeval with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. Marine sea surface temperature records indicate that potential sources for these moisture and heat anomalies are in the Gulf of Mexico and the western tropical Atlantic. We explain this low latitude warming by an increased Loop Current facilitated by persistence of the Atlantic Warm Pool during summer. This hypothesis is supported by a climate model sensitivity analysis. A positive heat anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico and equatorial Atlantic best approximates the pollen-inferred climate reconstructions from Lake Tulane during the (stadials around) Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. (orig.)

  5. Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine eBruge

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel’s spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models: (i a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/°C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century, the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that centre of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km and northward (0.5 to 328 km, but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from -9.3% to 12%. With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in

  6. Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoerling, M.P.; Xu, T.; Bates, G.T. [Climate Diagnostics Center NOAA, Boulder, CO 80305-3328 (United States); Hurrell, J.W.; Phillips, A.S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2004-09-01

    Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden ''switch-on'' of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts. (orig.)

  7. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  8. Phytoplankton dynamics and periodicity in two cascading warm ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-09-04

    Sep 4, 1991 ... warm-water reservoirs from 1989 to 1997 – taxonomic and ... Consideration of phytoplankton dynamics in terms of functional groups offers certain advantages over conventional ... (drinking water) in South Africa (DWA 1986).

  9. Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

    2017-08-01

    Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

  10. Is Medieval Warm Period (MWP) wetter in Nagaland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, S.; Agarwal, D. S.; Bhattacharyya, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    Dzukou Valley, Nagaland is one of the biodiversity rich regions in northeast India. It is house to 113 families of plants where primitive angiosperms and endemic plants species contribute 19% and 6% respectively to this unique floristic wealth. Floristic uniqueness of the valley is that 50 families are represented by single genus and 128 genuses are represented by single species. Present work is the first attempt to use soil organic matter (SOM) d13C and pollen data to understand climate vis-à-vis vegetation dynamics in an area where climatic changes were not strong enough to induce a significant change in vegetation cover. The d13C values in our study range from -29.1‰ to -27.7‰ during late Holocene. These values are typical of forest soils and suggest organic carbon derived exclusively from C3 vegetation. Generated proxy data reveals three phases of climatic and vegetational shifts in the region since 3100 yr BP. During the first phase from 3100 yr BP to 2300 yr BP isotope data shows higher values, indicating towards a comparatively dry climate and area was occupies by dry Pine-Oak forest. Subsequently in second phase from 2300 yr BP to 1060 yr BP increase in arboreal pollens (tree elements) and gradually decreasing trend in d13C values from 2300 to 1060 yrs BP by 1.4 ‰ indicate towards comparatively moist climatic conditions corresponding to Medieval Warm Period. Later on in the third phase from 1060 yr BP onwards climate again climate turned dry and continued till date as postulated from the increasing trend in d13C values and good recovery of Pinus-Oak forest pollens.This study holds its significance not only as the first attempt to address palaeoclimate and palaeo-vegetation study from Nagaland but also as the first attempt to use SOM d13C along with pollen data to understand the influence of fluctuating rainfall (in a high rainfall zone) in altering the floristic wealth of a region. This type of study is essentially needed to address several issues

  11. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  12. Sea Surface Temperatures in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool During the Early Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekens, P. S.; Ravelo, A. C.; Griffith, E. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) plays an important role in both regional and global climate, but the response of this region to anthropogenic climate change is not well understood. While the early Pliocene is not a perfect analogue for anthropogenic climate change, it is the most recent time in Earth history when global temperatures were warmer than they are today for a sustained period of time. SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific was 2-4○C warmer in the early Pliocene compared to today. A Mg/Ca SST at ODP site 806 in the western equatorial Pacific indicates that SST were stable through the last 5Ma (Wara et al., 2005). We generated a G. sacculifer Mg/Ca record in the Indian Ocean (ODP sit 758) for the last 5 Ma, which also shows that IPWP SST has remained relatively stable through the last 5 Ma and was not warmer in the early Pliocene compared today. A recent paper suggests that the Mg/Ca of seawater may have varied through the last 5 Ma and significantly affected Mg/Ca SST estimates (Medina-Elizalde et al., 2008). However, there is considerable uncertainty in the estimates of seawater Mg/Ca variations through time. We will present a detailed examination of these uncertainties to examine the possible range of seawater Mg/Ca through the last 5 Ma. Due to the lack of culturing work of foraminifera at different Mg/Ca ratios in the growth water there is also uncertainty in how changes in seawater Mg/Ca will affect the temperatures signal in the proxy. We will explore how uncertainties in the record of seawater Mg/Ca variations through time and its effect on the Mg/Ca SST proxy potentially influence the interpretation of the Mg/Ca SST records at ODP sites 806 and 758 in the IPWP, and ODP site 847 in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We will also explore how adjustment of the Mg/Ca SST estimates (due to reconstructed Mg/Ca seawater variations) affects the δ18O of water when adjusted Mg/Ca SST estimates are paired with δ18O measurements of the same samples.

  13. The influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on the Florida panhandle sea breeze

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Vasubandhu; Moeller, Lauren; Stefanova, Lydia; Chan, Steven; O'Brien, James J.; Smith, Thomas J.; Plant, Nathaniel

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the variations of the boreal summer season sea breeze circulation along the Florida panhandle coast from relatively high resolution (10 km) regional climate model integrations. The 23 year climatology (1979–2001) of the multidecadal dynamically downscaled simulations forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Reanalysis II at the lateral boundaries verify quite well with the observed climatology. The variations at diurnal and interannual time scales are also well simulated with respect to the observations. We show from composite analyses made from these downscaled simulations that sea breezes in northwestern Florida are associated with changes in the size of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on interannual time scales. In large AWP years when the North Atlantic Subtropical High becomes weaker and moves further eastward relative to the small AWP years, a large part of the southeast U.S. including Florida comes under the influence of relatively strong anomalous low-level northerly flow and large-scale subsidence consistent with the theory of the Sverdrup balance. This tends to suppress the diurnal convection over the Florida panhandle coast in large AWP years. This study is also an illustration of the benefit of dynamic downscaling in understanding the low-frequency variations of the sea breeze.

  14. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly

  15. Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiao

    2018-04-01

    In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

  16. Diving of great shearwaters (Puffinus gravis in cold and warm water regions of the South Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Ronconi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Among the most widespread seabirds in the world, shearwaters of the genus Puffinus are also some of the deepest diving members of the Procellariiformes. Maximum diving depths are known for several Puffinus species, but dive depths or diving behaviour have never been recorded for great shearwaters (P. gravis, the largest member of this genus. This study reports the first high sampling rate (2 s of depth and diving behaviour for Puffinus shearwaters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Time-depth recorders (TDRs were deployed on two female great shearwaters nesting on Inaccessible Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, recording 10 consecutive days of diving activity. Remote sensing imagery and movement patterns of 8 males tracked by satellite telemetry over the same period were used to identify probable foraging areas used by TDR-equipped females. The deepest and longest dive was to 18.9 m and lasted 40 s, but most (>50% dives were <2 m deep. Diving was most frequent near dawn and dusk, with <0.5% of dives occurring at night. The two individuals foraged in contrasting oceanographic conditions, one in cold (8 to 10°C water of the Sub-Antarctic Front, likely 1000 km south of the breeding colony, and the other in warmer (10 to 16°C water of the Sub-tropical Frontal Zone, at the same latitude as the colony, possibly on the Patagonian Shelf, 4000 km away. The cold water bird spent fewer days commuting, conducted four times as many dives as the warm water bird, dived deeper on average, and had a greater proportion of bottom time during dives. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: General patterns of diving activity were consistent with those of other shearwaters foraging in cold and warm water habitats. Great shearwaters are likely adapted to forage in a wide range of oceanographic conditions, foraging mostly with shallow dives but capable of deep diving.

  17. Pliocene Warm Period Upwelling in the Southern Benguela Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, B. F.; McClymont, E.; Felder, S.; Leng, M. J.; Rosell Mele, A.; Rueda, G.

    2014-12-01

    The mid-Pliocene has been proposed as a possible analogue for understanding future climate change and testing climate models. Previous work has shown that during the Pliocene the major upwelling systems were relatively warm, and thus either inactive, contracted, or upwelling warmer waters than present. Here we examine evidence from a core site located on the margins of the modern Benguela upwelling system, to test whether the upwelling cells had migrated or contracted relative to present during the Pliocene. We applied several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the Pliocene history of ODP site 1087 (31º28'S, 15º19'E, 1374m water depth), including the UK37' index and TEX86 index (for reconstructing sea surface temperatures), chlorins (for estimating primary productivity) and planktonic foraminifera assemblages (for inferring water mass changes). These proxies show that between 3.5 and 3.0 Ma the southern Benguela region was significantly cooler than the northern Benguela region, the latter where the main upwelling cells are found today. Coupled with higher primary production, a shift in planktonic foraminifera assemblage, and an offset between the UK37' index and TEX86 index, we infer that more extensive upwelling was present in the southern Benguela region during the Pliocene. We infer that the main Benguela upwelling cells had shifted southward relative to today, as a result of changes in the local wind field. We find evidence for pronounced cooling and a shift in the planktonic foraminifera assemblage during the M2 and KM2 glacial stages, showing a sensitivity of Benguela upwelling to these short-lived climate events.

  18. The Winter Cooling Trend in Eastern China during the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Period and Its Possible Reason

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, T.; Li, S.; Luo, F.; Han, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The authors analyzed the observed winter surface air temperature in eastern mainland China during the recent global warming hiatus period through 1998-2013. The results suggest a substantial cooling trend of about -1.0°/decade in Eastern China, Northeast China and Southeast China. Mechanism exploration indicates that the displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet and the associated Rossby wave may have contributed to the cooling trend. A southward shift of the East Asian polar together with a northward shift of the subtropical jet caused the enhancement of the northern East Asian trough and Siberian High. A diagnostic analysis suggests that the Arctic sea ice loss, ENSO and North Atlantic SST all play a role. With the three factors removed, the air temperature trend is -0.35, -0.08 and -0.44°/decade over East China, Northeast China and Southeast China, respectively.

  19. Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

    2018-05-01

    The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

  20. Biodiversity of Terrestrial Vegetation during Past Warm Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Ridgwell, A.

    2016-12-01

    Previous modelling studies of vegetation have generally used a small number of plant functional types to understand how the terrestrial biosphere responds to climate changes. Whilst being useful for understanding first order climate feedbacks, this climate-envelope approach makes a lot of assumptions about past vegetation being very similar to modern. A trait-based method has the advantage for paleo modelling in that there are substantially less assumptions made. In a novel use of the trait-based dynamic vegetation model JeDi, forced with output from climate model HadCM3, we explore past biodiversity and vegetation carbon changes. We use JeDi to model an optimal 2000 combinations of fifteen different traits to enable assessment of the overall level of biodiversity as well as individual growth strategies. We assess the vegetation shifts and biodiversity changes in past greenhouse periods to better understand the impact on the terrestrial biosphere. This work provides original insights into the response of vegetation and terrestrial carbon to climate and hydrological changes in high carbon dioxide climates over time, including during the Late Permian and Cretaceous. We evaluate how the location of biodiversity hotspots and species richness in past greenhouse climates is different to the present day.

  1. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8?ka and decrease at ~5.9?ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

  2. Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin and its response to North Atlantic cooling and global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richter, Ingo [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2010-08-15

    Atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin plays an important role in regulating North Atlantic salinity and thus the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Potential changes in the strength of this moisture transport are investigated for two different climate-change scenarios: North Atlantic cooling representative of Heinrich events, and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The effect of North Atlantic cooling is studied using a coupled regional model with comparatively high resolution that successfully simulates Central American gap winds and other important aspects of the region. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in this model leads to a regional decrease of atmospheric moisture but also to an increase in wind speed across Central America via an anomalous pressure gradient. The latter effect dominates, resulting in a 0.13 Sv (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) increase in overall moisture transport to the Pacific basin. In fresh water forcing simulations with four different general circulation models, the wind speed effect is also present but not strong enough to completely offset the effect of moisture decrease except in one model. The influence of GHG forcing is studied using simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archive. In these simulations atmospheric moisture increases globally, resulting in an increase of moisture transport by 0.25 Sv from the Atlantic to Pacific. Thus, in both scenarios, moisture transport changes act to stabilize the thermohaline circulation. The notion that the Andes effectively block moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin is not supported by the simulations and atmospheric reanalyses examined here. This indicates that such a blocking effect does not exist or else that higher resolution is needed to adequately represent the steep orography of the Andes. (orig.)

  3. The role of meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming in regulating the Atlantic meridional overturning in glacial climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brady, Esther C.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-10-15

    The Community Climate System Model version 3, (CCSM3) is used to investigate the effect of the high latitude North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature response in idealized freshwater hosing experiments on the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The hosing experiments covered a range of input magnitudes at two locations in a glacial background state. Subsurface subpolar ocean warms when freshwater is added to the high latitude North Atlantic (NATL cases) and weakly cools when freshwater is added to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM cases). All cases show subsurface ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The sensitivity of the AMOC response to the location and magnitude of hosing is related to the induced subsurface temperature response, which affects the magnitude of the large-scale meridional pressure gradient at depth through the effect on upper ocean density. The high latitude subsurface warming induced in the NATL cases lowers the upper ocean density in the deepwater formation region enhancing a density reduction by local freshening. In the GOM cases the effect of SH warming partially offsets the effect of the high latitude freshening on the meridional density gradient. Following the end of hosing, a brief convective event occurs in the largest NATL cases which flushes some of the heat stored in the subsurface layers. This fuels a rapid rise in AMOC that lasts less than a couple of decades before subsequent freshening from increases in precipitation and sea ice melt reverses the initial increase in the meridional density gradient. Thereafter AMOC recovery slows to the rate found in comparable GOM cases. The result for these glacial transient hosing experiments is that the pace of the longer recovery is not sensitive to location of the imposed freshwater forcing. (orig.)

  4. On the impact of the resolution on the surface and subsurface Eastern Tropical Atlantic warm bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Rey, Marta; Lazar, Alban

    2016-04-01

    The tropical variability has a great importance for the climate of adjacent areas. Its sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) affect in particular the Brazilian Nordeste and the Sahelian region, as well as the tropical Pacific or the Euro-Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the state-of the art climate models exhibits very large systematic errors in reproducing the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the equatorial and coastal Africa upwelling zones (up to several °C for SST). Theses biases exist already, in smaller proportions though, in forced ocean models (several 1/10th of °C), and affect not only the mixed layer but also the whole thermocline. Here, we present an analysis of the impact of horizontal and vertical resolution changes on these biases. Three different DRAKKAR NEMO OGCM simulations have been analysed, associated to the same forcing set (DFS4.4) with different grid resolutions: "REF" for reference (1/4°, 46 vertical levels), "HH" with a finer horizontal grid (1/12°, 46 v.l.) and "HV" with a finer vertical grid (1/4°, 75 v.l.). At the surface, a more realistic seasonal SST cycle is produced in HH in the three upwellings, where the warm bias decreases (by 10% - 20%) during boreal spring and summer. A notable result is that increasing vertical resolution in HV causes a shift (in advance) of the upwelling SST seasonal cycles. In order to better understand these results, we estimate the three upwelling subsurface temperature errors, using various in-situ datasets, and provide thus a three-dimensional view of the biases.

  5. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

    2005-01-01

    Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

  6. The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2006-12-15

    The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for 'present' climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea-ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within

  7. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively wit...

  8. How did Humans Adapt in the Eastern Farming-pastoral zone during the Medieval Warm Period?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, X.

    2017-12-01

    With its extremely warm climate, the "medieval warm period" is considered analogous to the climate change humans are likely to face due to future global warming. Thus, the ability of humans to adapt to an extremely warm climate during the medieval period in Eurasia's farming-pastoral zone has attracted some attention. The warmth of the climate during this period (900-1300 BC) is demonstrated by evidence of bamboo in charcoal remains and phytoliths found in the settlement sites and tomb murals of the Western Liao river basin in Northeast China. This warmth probably promoted agricultural diversification, as the presence of foxtail millet, broomcorn millet, wheat, barley, soybean, hemp, and buckwheat in this region can be seen in plant seeds and phytoliths found in archaeological sites. The bones of deer and birds also provide evidence of hunting, and the practice of animal husbandry is indicated in pig, dog, cattle, ovicaprid, horse and camel bones. Diversity in food structures is also shown in stable isotopes from human and animal bones. Competence in animal husbandry and hunting, and the availability of stable food resources may have contributed to the rise of the Liao people in military prowess and power, and promoted the expansion of Khitan-Liao culture.

  9. Global Warming In A Regional Model of The Atlantic Ocean - Echam4/opyc3 In Flame 4/3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweckendiek, U.; Willebrand, J.

    The reaction of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) in most climate models on global warming scenarios is a weakening of the THC. An exception is the ECHAM4/OPYC3 simulation whose stable behaviour is traced back to a strongly enhanced evaporation and as a consequence to a development of a salt anomaly in the tropics and subtropics of the Atlantic Ocean (Latif et al.,2000). This salt signal is advected into convection regions and compensates the reduction of surface density due to surface heating and freshening. To examine this scenario for a more realistic ocean model, data from this model is used to drive a reginal model of the Atlantic Ocean. In order to test the crucial mechanisms for the maintainance of the meridional overturning, we have performed sensitivity studies by focussing on different combinations of the anomalous freshwater and heat fluxes. The results demonstrate that for the stabilising effect to become effective the salt sig- nal has to enter the GIN-Seas and subsequently the overflow waters, underlining the importance of the overflows for the THC. The Labrador Sea Convection is however uneffected by this stabilising salt signal and its convection ultimatly breaks down un- der surface warming and freshening.

  10. Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

    2014-12-01

    The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically

  11. Southern limit of the Western South Atlantic mangroves: Assessment of the potential effects of global warming from a biogeographical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Mário Luiz Gomes; Estrada, Gustavo Calderucio Duque; Fernandez, Viviane; Tognella, Mônica Maria Pereira

    2012-04-01

    The objective of the present study was to determine the exact location of the latitudinal limit of western South Atlantic mangroves, and to describe how these forests develop at this limit; as well as to analyze the potential responses of these communities to global warming. The study was carried out along the coast of Santa Catarina, Brazil. Specific studies on mangrove structure were carried out in the Santo Antônio Lagoon (28°28'34″S; 48°51'40″W). The coastline of Santa Catarina was surveyed for the occurrence of mangrove species. In the mangrove located at the southernmost distributional limit, the forest structure was characterized. Mean height and diameter, trunks density and basal area were calculated. Climatic and oceanographic factors controlling the occurrence and development of the mangrove forests at their latitudinal limit were analyzed, as well as the possible changes of this limit based on global warming scenarios. The results confirmed that the Santo Antônio Lagoon is the southern limit of the western South Atlantic mangroves. At this limit, the mangrove forests show a low degree of development, defined by low mean diameter and height, and high trunks density and trunks/tree ratio. The observed structural pattern and the local alternation of these forests with salt marsh species are typical of mangrove forests at their latitudinal limits. The absence of mangroves south of Laguna and forest structure at the latitudinal limit are controlled by rigorous climate and oceanographic characteristics. In response to the planetary warming process, we expect that mangroves will expand southward, as a consequence of an increase in air and ocean surface temperatures, a reduction in the incidence of frosts, an increased influence of the Brazil Current and a decreased influence of the Falkland Current, and the availability of sheltered estuarine systems for the establishment of new mangroves.

  12. Enhanced Global Monsoon in Present Warm Period Due to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we investigate global monsoon precipitation (GMP changes between the Present Warm Period (PWP, 1900–2000 and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1250–1850 by performing millennium sensitivity simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1. Three millennium simulations are carried out under time-varying solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas (GHG forcing, respectively, from 501 to 2000 AD. Compared to the global-mean surface temperature of the cold LIA, the global warming in the PWP caused by high GHG concentration is about 0.42 °C, by strong solar radiation is 0.14 °C, and by decreased volcanic activity is 0.07 °C. The GMP increases in these three types of global warming are comparable, being 0.12, 0.058, and 0.055 mm day−1, respectively. For one degree of global warming, the GMP increase induced by strong GHG forcing is 2.2% °C−1, by strong solar radiation is 2.8% °C−1, and by decreased volcanic forcing is 5.5% °C−1, which means that volcanic forcing is most effective in terms of changing the GMP among these three external forcing factors. Under volcanic inactivity-related global warming, both monsoon moisture and circulation are enhanced, and the enhanced circulation mainly occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH. The circulation, however, is weakened in the other two cases, and the GMP intensification is mainly caused by increased moisture. Due to large NH volcanic aerosol concentration in the LIA, the inter-hemispheric thermal contrast of PWP global warming tends to enhance NH monsoon circulation. Compared to the GHG forcing, solar radiation tends to warm low-latitude regions and cause a greater monsoon moisture increase, resulting in a stronger GMP increase. The finding in this study is important for predicting the GMP in future anthropogenic global warming when a change in natural solar or volcanic activity occurs.

  13. The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. S. R. Pausata

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr before present was a period of low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, when vast ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric circulation was substantially altered compared to today, both in terms of its mean state and its variability. Here we present a suite of coupled model simulations designed to investigate both the separate and combined influences of the main LGM boundary condition changes (greenhouse gases, ice sheet topography and ice sheet albedo on the mean state and variability of the atmospheric circulation as represented by sea level pressure (SLP and 200-hPa zonal wind in the North Atlantic sector. We find that ice sheet topography accounts for most of the simulated changes during the LGM. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet albedo affect the SLP gradient in the North Atlantic, but the overall placement of high and low pressure centers is controlled by topography. Additional analysis shows that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea ice edge position do not substantially influence the pattern of the climatological-mean SLP field, SLP variability or the position of the North Atlantic jet in the LGM.

  14. Subfossil markers of climate change during the Roman Warm Period of the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jach, Renata; Knutelski, Stanisław; Uchman, Alfred; Hercman, Helena; Dohnalik, Marek

    2018-02-01

    Abundant bog oak trunks occur in alluvial deposits of the Raba River in the village of Targowisko (southern Poland). Several of them contain galleries of the great capricorn beetle ( Cerambyx cerdo L.). A well-preserved subfossil larva and pupa, as well as adults of this species, are concealed in some of the galleries. These galleries co-occur with boring galleries of other insects such as ship-timber beetles (Lymexylidae) and metallic wood borers (Buprestidae). A dry larva of a stag beetle (Lucanidae) and a mite (Acari) have been found in the C. cerdo galleries. Selected samples of the trunks and a sample of the C. cerdo larva were dated, using radiocarbon and dendrochronological methods, to the period from 45 bc to ad 554; one sample was dated to the period from 799 to 700 bc. Accumulation of the channel alluvia containing the bog oak trunks is synchronous with the Roman Warm Period (late antiquity/Early Mediaeval times). The most recent part of this period correlates with massive accumulations of fallen oak trunks noted from various river valleys in the Carpathian region and dated to ad 450-570. The results indicate that C. cerdo was more abundant within the study area during the Roman Warm Period than it is today.

  15. Investigation of the Periodic Absolute Parametric Instability in a Nonuniform Cylindrical Warm Plasma Waveguide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki, N.G.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the effect of spatial plasma nonuniformity on periodic Absolute Parametric Instability (API) of electrostatic waves in a magnetized pump warm plasma is investigated in a cylindrical geometry. An API plays a crucial role in the processes of the energy transfer from the electromagnetic radiation to the plasma and may have an important consequences for experiments on RF plasma heating in a magnetic traps and for a laser-fusion system. In conclusion; it is found that: A) allowance for the spatial nonuniformity of the plasma density leads to A.I) localization of an unstable wave in a finite region of a plasma volume, A.2) increasing the threshold value of the pump wave amplitude above which parametric amplification occurs and A.3) decreasing the value of the growth rate of unstable waves, B) more growth rate of periodic API is decreased due to electrons warmness in comparison with the case of cold plasma, and C) Independent of the geometry of the problem ( plane or cylinder), the results of the API in a warm plasma waveguide are still valid

  16. Vulnerability of Southeast Greenland Glaciers to Warm Atlantic Water From Operation IceBridge and Ocean Melting Greenland Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millan, R.; Rignot, E.; Mouginot, J.; Wood, M.; Bjørk, A. A.; Morlighem, M.

    2018-03-01

    We employ National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)'s Operation IceBridge high-resolution airborne gravity from 2016, NASA's Ocean Melting Greenland bathymetry from 2015, ice thickness from Operation IceBridge from 2010 to 2015, and BedMachine v3 to analyze 20 major southeast Greenland glaciers. The results reveal glacial fjords several hundreds of meters deeper than previously thought; the full extent of the marine-based portions of the glaciers; deep troughs enabling warm, salty Atlantic Water (AW) to reach the glacier fronts and melt them from below; and few shallow sills that limit the access of AW. The new oceanographic and topographic data help to fully resolve the complex pattern of historical ice front positions from the 1930s to 2017: glaciers exposed to AW and resting on retrograde beds have retreated rapidly, while glaciers perched on shallow sills or standing in colder waters or with major sills in the fjords have remained stable.

  17. Influence of Atlantic on the warming and reduction of sea ice in the Arctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Alekseev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Influence of anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST in low latitudes of the North Atlantic on the sea ice cover and the near-surface air temperature in the marine Arctic is discussed in the article. Data on the SST in the Atlantic Ocean from the HadISST dataset, climatic series of the water temperature at the section along the Kola meridian together with mean monthly data on the sea ice extent and the air surface temperature in the Maritime Arctic and the Northern hemisphere were analyzed. Multivariate cross-correlation analysis was applied to determine the maximum correlation coefficients between the SST anomalies, climate characteristics and their corresponding delays within time limits of 33 to 38 months. Existence of intimate link had been found between changes of the Atlantic SST in low latitudes and the sea ice extent in the Arctic with correlation coefficients up to 0.90 and delays up to 3 years. A mechanism of formation of the remote influence of low-latitude SST anomalies on the sea ice anomalies in the Arctic Ocean is proposed. The interpretation of this mechanism includes into consideration the interaction between atmospheric and oceanic circulation modes.

  18. Effects of Warmness and Spatial Nonuniformity of the Plasma Waveguide on Periodic Absolute Parametric Instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki, N.G.; Bekheit, A.H.

    2011-01-01

    The periodic absolute parametric instability (API) of the low-frequency oscillations excited by a monochromatic pumping field of arbitrary amplitude in a warm I-D nonuniform magneto active plasma is investigated. One can use the separation method to solve the two-fluid plasma equations which describe the system. The method used enables us to determine the frequencies and growth rates of unstable modes and the self-consistent electric field. Plasma electrons are considered to have a thermal velocity. One can examine different solutions for the spatial equation in the following cases: A) API in uniform Plasma B) API in nonuniform plasma, we study this case for two variants: B.1) Exact harmonic oscillator and B.2) Bounded harmonic oscillator (bounded plasma). Increment is found in the buildup of the oscillations, and it is shown that the spatial nonuniformity of the plasma exerts a stabilizing effect on the parametric instability. It is shown that the growth rate of API in warm plasma is reduced compared to cold plasma. It is found also that the warmness of the plasma has no effect on the solution of the space part of the problem ( only through the separation constant )

  19. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A.; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

  20. Effects of warmness and spatial nonuniformity of plasma waveguide on periodic absolute parametric instability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki, N.G.; Bekheit, A.H.

    2011-01-01

    The periodic absolute parametric instability (API) of the low-frequency oscillations excited by a monochromatic pumping field of an arbitrary amplitude in a warm 1-D (one-dimensional) nonuniform magnetoactive plasma is investigated. The separation method can be used for solving the two-fluid plasma equations describing the system. By applying this method we were able to determine the frequencies and growth rates of unstable modes and the self-consistent electric field. Plasma electrons are considered to have a thermal velocity. Different solutions for the spatial equation can be obtained the following cases: A) API in a uniform plasma, B) API in a nonuniform plasma. The latter has been studied here for two cases: B.1) the exact harmonic oscillator and B.2) the bounded harmonic oscillator (a bounded plasma). An increment has been found in the build-up of the oscillations, and it has been shown that the spatial nonuniformity of the plasma exerts the stabilizing effect on the parametric instability. A reduced growth rate of API in the warm plasma, in comparison to the cold plasma, is reported. It has also been found that the warmness of the plasma has no effect on the solution of the space part of the problem (only through the separation constant). (authors)

  1. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  2. Temperature responses of tropical to warm temperate Cladophora species in relation to their distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambridge, M. L.; Breeman, A. M.; Kraak, S.; van den Hoek, C.

    1987-09-01

    The relationship between distribution boundaries and temperature responses of some North Atlantic Cladophora species (Chlorophyta) was experimentally examined under various regimes of temperature, light and daylength. Experimentally determined critical temperature intervals, in which survival, growth or reproduction was limited, were compared with annual temperature regimes (monthly means and extremes) at sites inside and outside distribution boundaries. The species tested belonged to two phytogeographic groups: (1) the tropical West Atlantic group ( C. submarina: isolate from Curaçao) and (2) the amphiatlantic tropical to warm temperate group ( C. prolifera: isolate from Corsica; C. coelothrix: isolates from Brittany and Curaçao; and C. laetevirens: isolates from deep and shallow water in Corsica and from Brittany). In accordance with distribution from tropical to warm temperate regions, each of the species grew well between 20 30°C and reproduction and growth were limited at and below 15°C. The upper survival limit in long days was <35°C in all species but high or maximum growth rates occurred at 30°C. C. prolifera, restricted to the tropical margins, had the most limited survival at 35°C. Experimental evidence suggests that C. submarina is restricted to the Caribbean and excluded from the more northerly American mainland and Gulf of Mexico coasts by sporadic low winter temperatures in the nearshore waters, when cold northerly weather penetrates far south every few years. Experimental evidence suggests that C. prolifera, C. coelothrix and C. laetevirens are restricted to their northern European boundaries by summer temperatures too low for sufficient growth and/or reproduction. Their progressively more northerly located boundaries were accounted for by differences in growth rates over the critical 10 15°C interval. C. prolifera and C. coelothrix are excluded or restricted in distribution on North Sea coasts by lethal winter temperatures, again differences

  3. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

    2017-02-14

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

  4. Late Quaternary Hydroclimate of Arid Northeastern Mexico: Response of Millennial-scale Global Climate Change and the Atlantic Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, P. D.; Shanahan, T. M.; Sánchez Zavala, J. L.; Lozano-SantaCruz, R.; Vera-Vera, G.

    2017-12-01

    Model projections suggest that drought-prone northeastern Mexico could experience an increase of more than 2 ºC in mean annual temperature and precipitation could decrease at least by 10-20% over the 21st century. The combination of drought and warmth would enhance the dryness of this water-stressed region in the coming decades. However, because of the lack of long continuous records from the region, little is known about the past controls on climate variability in northeast Mexico. In order to better understand the susceptibility of this climatically sensitive but data-poor region, we present a new multi-proxy record of past hydrological changes from paleo-lacustrine deposits in the Sandia Basin ( 24°N) over the last 32 cal ka BP. We reconstruct runoff from changes in the abundance of Al-bearing clastic minerals and local hydrological changes from the oxygen isotope composition of lacustrine carbonates, as well as gypsum/calcite abundances. During the cooler Heinrich Stadials (HS3, HS2 and HS1) and Younger Dryas, the basin received less runoff and the lake was more saline, though hydrological conditions varied significantly throughout these stadial events. The wettest interval in the record occurred coincident with the Bølling-Allerød (B/A) interstadial. Arid conditions returned during the Holocene, with low sedimentation rates, reduced proxy runoff indicators, and enhanced gypsum deposition suggesting this was the driest interval of the last 30 ka. Our observations are consistent with a growing number of records from across both northeastern Mexico and the southern Great Plains suggesting dry conditions associated with North Atlantic stadials and a sudden but transient shift to wetter conditions accompanying the strengthening of the overturning circulation during the B/A. We will evaluate the possible influence of Atlantic Warm Pool on hydroclimate of the region by comparing the different proxy records to the sea-surface temperature of Gulf of Mexico

  5. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  6. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  7. Sources and pathways of 90Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region: present day and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Yongqi; Drange, Helge; Johannessen, Ola M.; Pettersson, Lasse H.

    2009-01-01

    The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides 137 Cs and 90 Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948-1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of 90 Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface 90 Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface 90 Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980-1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the 90 Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released 90 Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 x CO 2 ). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released 90 Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.

  8. Influences of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on warm season temperature and crop yields in the southwestern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myoung, B.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Kafatos, M.

    2013-12-01

    Despite advancements in agricultural technology, agricultural productivity remains vulnerable to extreme meteorological conditions. This study has found significant impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme temperatures and in turn on crop yields in the Southwestern United States (SW US) region. Analyses of multi-year data of observed temperatures and simulated maize yields reveal that NAO affects positively the daily temperature maxima and minima in the green-up periods (March-June) and that the response of maize yields to NAO varies according to the climatological mean temperatures. In warmer regions, a combination of above-normal NAO in the planting periods and below-normal NAO in the growing periods is favorable for high maize yields by reducing extremely cold days during the planting periods and extremely hot days in the later periods, respectively. In colder regions, continuously above-normal NAO conditions favor higher yields via above normal thermal conditions. Results in this study suggest that NAO predictions can benefit agricultural planning in SW US.

  9. Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

  10. Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.; Jonas, J. A.; Dowsett, H. J.; Kelley, M.

    2013-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led

  11. Delimitation of the warm and cold period of the year based on the variation of the Aegean sea surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. MAVRAKIS

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the warm and cold season onset is important for the living conditions and the occupational activities of the inhabitants of a given area, and especially for agriculture and tourism. This paper presents a way to estimate the onset/end of the cold and warm period of the year, based on the sinusoidal annual variation of the Sea Surface Temperature. The method was applied on data from 8 stations of the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service, covering the period from 1965-1995. The results showed that the warm period starts sometime between April 28th and May 21st while it ends between October 27th and November 19th in accordance with the findings of other studies. Characteristic of the nature of the parameter used is the very low variance per station – 15 days at maximum. The average date of warm period onset is statistically the same for the largest part of the Aegean, with only one differentiation, that between Kavala and the southern stations ( Thira and Heraklion.

  12. A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermody, B. J.; de Boer, H. J.; Bierkens, M. F. P.; Weber, S. L.; Wassen, M. J.; Dekker, S. C.

    2012-03-01

    We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000-1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and Israel on one side and the Central Mediterranean and Turkey on the other, similar to precipitation anomalies associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in current climate. We find that changes in the position and intensity of the jet stream indicated by our analysis correlate with millennial changes in North Atlantic sea surface temperature. A model simulation indicates the proxies of climatic humidity used in our analysis were unlikely to be influenced by climatic aridification caused by deforestation during the Roman Period. That finding is supported by an analysis of the distribution of archaeological sites in the Eastern Mediterranean which exhibits no evidence that human habitation distribution changed since ancient times as a result of climatic aridification. Therefore we conclude that changes in climatic humidity over the Mediterranean during the Roman Period were primarily caused by a modification of the jet stream linked to sea surface temperature change in the North Atlantic. Based on our findings, we propose that ocean-atmosphere coupling may have contributed to regulating Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation intensity during the period of analysis.

  13. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

  14. Range shifts and global warming: ecological responses of Empetrum nigrum L. to experimental warming at its northern (high Arctic) and southern (Atlantic) geographical range margin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buizer, Bert; Weijers, Stef; Van Bodegom, Peter M; Van Breda, Johan; De Korte, Maarten; Van Rijckevorsel, Jaap; Rozema, Jelte; Alsos, Inger Greve; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken

    2012-01-01

    Global change is expected to lead to range shifts of plant species. The ecological mechanisms underpinning these shifts are currently not well understood. Here, we compared ecological responses possibly underlying southern range contraction and northern range expansion of Empetrum nigrum, a key species in northern heathlands, which may be related to global change. We hypothesized a negative response to warming in the ‘south’ (i.e. the Netherlands) and a positive response at the northern range margin (the tundra on Svalbard). Open top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate global warming. In the ‘south’, OTC warming caused enhanced shoot growth and growth rate, biomass increment, advanced phenology, larger and heavier berries of Empetrum, while its growing season was extended by 75 days. Under OTC warming co-occurring Calluna vulgaris also showed an increased growing season length (by 98 days) as well as increased shoot growth rate and biomass growth, plant cover and height. Still, we found no evidence for increased competitiveness relative to Empetrum. In the ‘north’, Empetrum responded with increased shoot and biomass growth, enhanced berry development and ripening to warming. These responses exceeded those of co-occurring Cassiope tetragona with the exception of its biomass response. The direct and indirect ecological responses found do not readily explain the observed northward retreat of Empetrum at the southern range margin. The direct ecological responses found at its northern range margin are, on the other hand, in line with the increased occurrences of this species on Svalbard. (letter)

  15. [Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

    2015-01-01

    By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

  16. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  17. On the role of periodic structures in the lower jaw of the atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dible, S A; Flint, J A; Lepper, P A

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes the application of band-gap theory to hearing in the atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Using the transmission line modelling (TLM) technique and published computed tomography (CT) data of an atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), a series of sound propagation experiments have been carried out. It is shown that the teeth in the lower jaw can be viewed as a periodic array of scattering elements which result in the formation of an acoustic stop band (or band gap) that is angular dependent. It is shown through simple and complex geometry simulations that performance enhancements such as improved gain and isolation between the two receive paths can be achieved. This mechanism has the potential to be exploited in direction-finding sonar

  18. On the role of periodic structures in the lower jaw of the atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dible, S A; Flint, J A; Lepper, P A [Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU (United Kingdom)], E-mail: james.flint@ieee.org

    2009-03-01

    This paper proposes the application of band-gap theory to hearing in the atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Using the transmission line modelling (TLM) technique and published computed tomography (CT) data of an atlantic bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), a series of sound propagation experiments have been carried out. It is shown that the teeth in the lower jaw can be viewed as a periodic array of scattering elements which result in the formation of an acoustic stop band (or band gap) that is angular dependent. It is shown through simple and complex geometry simulations that performance enhancements such as improved gain and isolation between the two receive paths can be achieved. This mechanism has the potential to be exploited in direction-finding sonar.

  19. Permafrost distribution in peatlands of west-central Canada during the Holocene warm period 6000 years BP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zoltai, S.C. [Canadian Forest Service, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    1995-12-31

    The extent and timing of permafrost development in peatlands of west-central Canada are examined. The floristic composition of the permafrost peatlands was determined from macrofossil samples of cores drilled at 161 locations. Radiocarbon dating of substantial changes in the peat sequences and of basal peat deposition was used to provide chronological control. The reconstructed paleoenvironments show the presence or absence of permafrost at the time of peat formation. Permafrost distribution in peatlands is estimated during the warm period 6000 years BP. It is estimated that the mean annual temperature was approximately 5{degree}C warmer than at present. 42 refs., 3 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. Scorched mussels (Brachidontes spp., Bivalvia: Mytilidae) from the tropical and warm-temperate southwestern Atlantic: the role of the Amazon River in their speciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trovant, Berenice; Basso, Néstor G; Orensanz, José María; Lessa, Enrique P; Dincao, Fernando; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2016-03-01

    Antitropicality is a distribution pattern where closely related taxa are separated by an intertropical latitudinal gap. Two potential examples include Brachidontes darwinianus (south eastern Brazil to Uruguay), considered by some authors as a synonym of B. exustus (Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean), and B. solisianus, distributed along the Brazilian coast with dubious records north of the intertropical zone. Using two nuclear (18S and 28S rDNA) and one mitochondrial gene (mtDNA COI), we aimed to elucidate the phylogeographic and phylogenetic relationships among the scorched mussels present in the warm-temperate region of the southwest Atlantic. We evaluated a divergence process mediated by the tropical zone over alternative phylogeographic hypotheses. Brachidontes solisianus was closely related to B. exustus I, a species with which it exhibits an antitropical distribution. Their divergence time was approximately 2.6 Ma, consistent with the intensification of Amazon River flow. Brachidontes darwinianus, an estuarine species is shown here not to be related to this B. exustus complex. We suspect ancestral forms may have dispersed from the Caribbean to the Atlantic coast via the Trans-Amazonian seaway (Miocene). The third species, B rodriguezii is presumed to have a long history in the region with related fossil forms going back to the Miocene. Although scorched mussels are very similar in appearance, their evolutionary histories are very different, involving major historical contingencies as the formation of the Amazon River, the Panama Isthmus, and the last marine transgression.

  1. Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Moridis, G.J.; Cameron-Smith, P.J.

    2011-01-02

    Geochemical environments, fates, and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed, within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels, and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed, representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH{sub 4} distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios, vertical sections, and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf, where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern, methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects, however, spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations, since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered, methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However, freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer, diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance, buoyant effluent rise through the column, representation of the general circulation, and bacterial growth kinetics.

  2. Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Scott; Maltrud, Mathew; Reagan, Matthew; Moridis, George; Cameron-Smith, Philip

    2011-03-01

    Geochemical environments, fates, and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed, within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels, and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed, representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH4 distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios, vertical sections, and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf, where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern, methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects, however, spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations, since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered, methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However, freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer, diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance, buoyant effluent rise through the column, representation of the general circulation, and bacterial growth kinetics.

  3. Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period climate with the IPSL coupled model and its atmospheric component LMDZ5A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Contoux

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the experimental design and model results of the climate simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3–3 Ma using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace model (IPSLCM5A, in the framework of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP. We use the IPSL atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, and its atmospheric component alone (AGCM, to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, topography, ice-sheet extent and vegetation are derived from the ones imposed by the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP, described in Haywood et al. (2010, 2011. We first describe the IPSL model main features, and then give a full description of the boundary conditions used for atmospheric model and coupled model experiments. The climatic outputs of the mPWP simulations are detailed and compared to the corresponding control simulations. The simulated warming relative to the control simulation is 1.94 °C in the atmospheric and 2.07 °C in the coupled model experiments. In both experiments, warming is larger at high latitudes. Mechanisms governing the simulated precipitation patterns are different in the coupled model than in the atmospheric model alone, because of the reduced gradients in imposed SSTs, which impacts the Hadley and Walker circulations. In addition, a sensitivity test to the change of land-sea mask in the atmospheric model, representing a sea-level change from present-day to 25 m higher during the mid-Pliocene, is described. We find that surface temperature differences can be large (several degrees Celsius but are restricted to the areas that were changed from ocean to land or vice versa. In terms of precipitation, impact on polar regions is minor although the change in land-sea mask is significant in these areas.

  4. Evaluation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic Region in Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, V. A.; Cherenkova, E. A.

    2018-02-01

    The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic region in summer for the period of 1950-2015 is investigated. It is shown that the intensification of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant changes in sea level pressure anomalies in the main centers of action (over Greenland and the British Isles) occurred while the North Atlantic was cooler. Sea surface temperature anomalies, which are linked to the AMO in the summer season, affect both the NAO index and fluctuations of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) centers of action. The positive (negative) phase of the AMO is characterized by a combination of negative (positive) values of the NAO and EAWR indices. The dominance of the opposite phases of the teleconnection indices in summer during the warm North Atlantic and in its colder period resulted in differences in the regional climate in Europe.

  5. Early and late hot extremes, and elongation of the warm period over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Founda, Dimitra; Giannakopoulos, Christos; Pierros, Fragiskos

    2017-04-01

    The eastern Mediterranean has been assigned as one of the most responsive areas in climate change, mainly with respect to the occurrence of warmer and drier conditions. In Greece in particular, observations suggest prominent increases in the summer air temperature which in some areas amount to approximately 1 0C/decade since the mid 1970s, while Regional Climate Models simulate further increases in the near and distant future. These changes are coupled with simultaneous increase in the occurrence of hot extremes. In addition to changes in the frequency and intensity of hot extrems, timing of occurrence is also of special interest. Early heat waves in particular, have been found to increase thermal risk in humans. The study explores variations and trends in timing, namely the date of first and last occurrence of hot extremes within the year, and subsequently the hot extremes period (season), defined as the time interval (number of days) between first and last hot extremes occurrence, over Greece. A case study for the area of Athens covering a longer than 100-years period (1897-2015) was conducted first, which will be extended to other Greek areas. Several heat related climatic indices were used, based either on predefined temperature thresholds such as 'tropical days' (daily maximum air temperature, Tmax >30 0C), 'tropical nights' (daily minimum air temperature, Tmin >20 0C), 'hot days' (Tmax >35 0C), or on local climate statistics such as days with Tmax (or Tmin) > 95th percentile. The analysis revealed significant changes in the period of hot extremes and specifically elongation of the period, attributed to early rather than late hot extremes occurrence. An earlier shift of the first tropical day and the first tropical night occurrence by approximately 2 days/decade was found over the study period. An overall elongation of the 'hot days' season by 2.6 days/decade was also observed, which is more prominent since the early 1980s. Over the last three decades, earlier

  6. Sensitivity of North Atlantic subpolar gyre and overturning to stratification-dependent mixing: response to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzeion, Ben [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, EAPS, Cambridge, MA (United States); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); University of Innsbruck, Tropical Glaciology Group, Institute of Geography, Innsbruck (Austria); Levermann, Anders [Potsdam University, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Institute of Physics, Potsdam (Germany); Mignot, Juliette [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN, Paris (France)

    2010-04-15

    We use a reduced complexity climate model with a three-dimensional ocean component and realistic topography to investigate the effect of stratification-dependent mixing on the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), to idealized CO{sub 2} increase and peaking scenarios. The vertical diffusivity of the ocean interior is parameterized as {kappa} {proportional_to} N {sup -{alpha}}, where N is the local buoyancy frequency. For all parameter values 0 {<=} {alpha} {<=} 3, we find the SPG, and subsequently the AMOC, to weaken in response to increasing CO{sub 2} concentrations. The weakening is significantly stronger for {alpha} {>=} {alpha}{sub cr} {approx} 1.5. Depending on the value of {alpha}, two separate model states develop. These states remain different after the CO{sub 2} concentration is stabilized, and in some cases even after the CO{sub 2} concentration has been decreased again to the pre-industrial level. This behaviour is explained by a positive feedback between stratification and mixing anomalies in the Nordic Seas, causing a persistent weakening of the SPG. (orig.)

  7. THE QUALITY OF THE YOUNG WARM-BLOODED STALLIONS DURING THE REARING PERIOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslav MARŠÁLEK

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of young stallions during the rearing period and to analyze the differences among several test rearing houses with various altitudes (up to 250, 250-300, 300-400, 400-500 and more than 500 meters above the sea level. In 227 stallions ending the rearing period in the years 2004 and 2005 the records from 5 foals´ assortment were processed (it means the growth comparison with the growth standard, results of exterior classification and results of movement mechanics classification. The statistically significant differences among the rearing houses with various altitudes were found out in growth classification (13,614++ to 27,679+++, in exterior classification (13,136++ to 20,281+++ and in movement mechanics classification (17,930++ to 26,526+++. The relation between in-rearing and end-rearing classification was higher for growth (up to 0,862+ than for exterior (up to 0,652+ and movement mechanics (up to 0,585+. It’s obvious, that the final foal’s movement mechanics and exterior classification can’t be faithfully estimated before the rearing finalization.

  8. Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Doo-Sun R; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C L; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

    2017-01-30

    Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

  9. Early enrichment effects on brain development in hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): no evidence for a critical period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund, Joacim; Aarestrup, Kim; Thomassen, Søren T.

    2012-01-01

    was released into nature and recaptured at smoltification. These stream-reared smolts developed smaller brains than the hatchery reared smolts, irrespective of initial enrichment treatment. These novel findings do not support the hypothesis that there is a critical early period determining the brain growth...... trajectory. In contrast, our results indicate that brain growth is plastic in relation to environment. In addition, we show allometric growth in brain substructures over juvenile development, which suggests that comparisons between groups of different body size should be made with caution. These results can......In hatcheries, fish are normally reared in barren environments, which have been reported to affect their phenotypic development compared with wild conspecifics. In this study, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) alevins were reared in conventional barren hatchery trays or in either of two types...

  10. Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

    OpenAIRE

    D. Handiani; A. Paul; L. Dupont

    2012-01-01

    The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Mod...

  11. Contaminant levels in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the 13-year period from 1999 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nøstbakken, Ole Jakob; Hove, Helge T; Duinker, Arne; Lundebye, Anne-Katrine; Berntssen, Marc H G; Hannisdal, Rita; Lunestad, Bjørn Tore; Maage, Amund; Madsen, Lise; Torstensen, Bente E; Julshamn, Kåre

    2015-01-01

    Environmental pollutants such as dioxins and PCBs, heavy metals, and organochlorine pesticides are a global threat to food safety. In particular, the aquatic biota can bioaccumulate many of these contaminants potentially making seafood of concern for chronic exposure to humans. The main objective was to evaluate trends of contaminant levels in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon in light of the derived tolerable intakes. Through an EU-instigated surveillance programme, the Norwegian Food Safety Authority (NFSA) has between 1999 and 2011 collected more than 2300 samples of Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) for contaminant analyses. The fillets of these fish were homogenised and analysed for dioxins, PCBs, heavy metals and organochlorine pesticides. The levels of the contaminants mercury, arsenic, dioxins, dioxin-like PCBs and DDT in Norwegian farmed salmon fillet have decreased during our period of analyses. The levels of cadmium, lead and several organochlorine pesticides were too close to the limit of quantification to calculate time trends. For PCB6 and quantifiable amounts of pesticides, except DDT, stable levels were observed. The contaminant levels in Norwegian farmed salmon have generally decreased between 1999 and 2011. Excluding other dietary sources, the levels of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in 2011 allowed consumption of up to 1.3kg salmon per week to reach the tolerable weekly intake. The group of contaminants which was the limiting factor for safe consumption of Norwegian farmed salmon, based on currently established TWI values, is the sum of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  12. Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  13. Identifying the Climatic Conditions in Iraq by Tracking Down Cooling Events in the North Atlantic Ocean in the Period 3000–0 BC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muslih Khamis D.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, monthly averages of precipitation in the Baghdad station, and petrologic tracer proxy data for ocean properties in the North Atlantic (NA have been used in an attempt to identify climatic conditions in Iraq during the study period. The study showed that contemporary changes in precipitation in Iraq are associated with NAO, as a negative relationship is found between them. Moreover, the study found that there is a strong negative correlation between NAOI and SST in NA, where drift ice indices explain between 33–36% of the NAOI variability.

  14. TRACEing Last Glacial Period (25-80 ka b2k) tephra horizons within North Atlantic marine cores and exploring links to the Greenland ice-cores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, P. M.; Davies, S. M.; Griggs, A. J.; Bourne, A. J.; Cook, E.; Pearce, N. J. G.; Austin, W. E. N.; Chapman, M.; Hall, I. R.; Purcell, C. S.; Scourse, J. D.; Rasmussen, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    Tephrochronology is a powerful technique for the correlation and synchronisation of disparate palaeoclimatic records from different depositional environments and has considerable potential for testing climatic phasing. For example, the relative timing of atmospheric and marine changes caused by the abrupt climatic events that punctuated the last glacial period within the North Atlantic region. Here we report on efforts to establish a framework of tephra horizons within North Atlantic marine sequences that can correlate these records and if traced in the Greenland ice-cores can act as isochronous tie-lines. Investigations have been conducted on a network of marine cores from a number of sites across the North Atlantic. Tephra horizons have been identified using cryptotephra extraction techniques more commonly applied to the study of terrestrial sequences. There are two main challenges with assessing cryptotephras in the glacial North Atlantic; i) determining the transportation processes and ii) assessing the influence of secondary reworking processes and the stratigraphic integrity of the isochrons. These processes and their influence are investigated for each cryptotephra using shard size variations, major element heterogeneity and co-variance of IRD input for some cores. Numerous Icelandic cryptophras have been successfully identified in the marine records and we will discuss the integration of a number of these with an isochronous nature into a marine tephra framework and how potential correlations to the Greenland ice-core tephra framework are determined. Spatial patterns in the nature of tephra records that are emerging from the core network will be highlighted to outline some of the key areas that could be explored in the future. In addition, the synchronisation of multiple North Atlantic records to the Greenland ice-cores using the North Atlantic Ash Zone II to test the synchroneity of an abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic will be discussed.

  15. Correlation of Ice-Rafted Detritus in South Atlantic Sediments with Climate Proxies in Polar Ice over the Last Glacial Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon L. Kanfoush

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous study identified 6–7 millennial-scale episodes of South Atlantic ice-rafted sediment deposition (SA events during the glaciation. Questions remain, however, regarding their origin, significance for sea-ice and/or Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, and relationship to climate. Here I correlate sediment core (TTN057–21 SA events to Greenland and Antarctic ice using two independent methods, stable isotopes and geomagnetic paleointensity, placing SA events in the context of polar climate change in both hemispheres. Marine isotopic stage (MIS 3 SA events generally coincided with Greenland interstadials and with cooling following Antarctic warm events (A1-A4. This anti-phase behavior is best illustrated when SA0 coincided with both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Bolling-Allerod warming in Greenland. Moreover, SA events coincide with sea-level rises during the deglaciation (mwp1A and MIS 3 (30.4, 38.3, 43.7, 51.5 ka, implying unpinning of grounded Weddell Sea region ice masses discharged debris-laden bergs that had a chilling effect on South Atlantic surface temperatures.

  16. Tectonic imprints upon inferences of eustatic sea level history: the Pliocene warm period and the Orangeburg Scarp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandan, D.; Peltier, W. R.

    2013-12-01

    The issue of tectonic contamination of geological inferences of relative sea level history is an important one. The issue arises on timescales that range from the 21-26 kyrs that have passed since the Last Glacial Maximum, to the most recent time when periods as warm as the present are expected to have existed, such as the mid-Pliocene. The coral based record from Barbados, for example, is known to be contaminated by continuing tectonic uplift of the island at a rate of approximately 0.34 mm/yr. For the Pliocene warm period at ~3 Myr, records from geological sites, such as the Orangeburg Scarp in North Carolina, have played a prominent role in arguments underpinning the design of the ongoing international PlioMIP program. In connection with the latter site, Rowley et al (2013) have recently argued that this record is contaminated by a tectonic imprint sufficiently strong to suggest that the usual inferences of Pliocene eustatic sea level based upon it (eg. Miller et al, 2012) must be seen as highly suspect. Here we employ a tomographically constrained model of the mantle convection process to revisit the issue of the tectonic imprint on relative sea level at the Orangeburg site, as well as other similar locations. Our analysis is based upon the inferred time dependence of dynamic topography forced by the mantle's internal density heterogeneities delivered by the S20RTS seismic tomography model. We begin by comparing the static, present day dynamic topography predicted by the (linear) internal loading theory based on the formalism of Pari and Peltier (2000) with that predicted using using a full three dimensional version of the nonlinear time-dependent mantle convection model of Shahnas and Peltier (2010, 2011). We demonstrate first that these two methodologies produce extremely similar results for the static field. We then proceed to run the nonlinear convection model in data assimilation mode while continuously nudging the internal density field back towards the

  17. Late Devonian glacial deposits from the eastern United States signal an end of the mid-Paleozoic warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezinski, D.K.; Cecil, C.B.; Skema, V.W.; Stamm, R.

    2008-01-01

    A Late Devonian polymictic diamictite extends for more than 400??km from northeastern Pennsylvania across western Maryland and into east-central West Virginia. The matrix-supported, unbedded, locally sheared diamictite contains subangular to rounded clasts up to 2??m in diameter. The mostly rounded clasts are both locally derived and exotic; some exhibit striations, faceting, and polish. The diamictite commonly is overlain by laminated siltstone/mudstone facies associations (laminites). The laminites contain isolated clasts ranging in size from sand and pebbles to boulders, some of which are striated. The diamictite/laminite sequence is capped by massive, coarse-grained, pebbly sandstone that is trough cross-bedded. A stratigraphic change from red, calcic paleo-Vertisols in strata below the diamictite to non-calcic paleo-Spodosols and coal beds at and above the diamictite interval suggests that the climate became much wetter during deposition of the diamictite. The diamictite deposit is contemporaneous with regressive facies that reflect fluvial incision during the Late Devonian of the Appalachian basin. These deposits record a Late Devonian episode of climatic cooling so extreme that it produced glaciation in the Appalachian basin. Evidence for this episode of climatic cooling is preserved as the interpreted glacial deposits of diamictite, overlain by glaciolacustrine varves containing dropstones, and capped by sandstone interpreted as braided stream outwash. The Appalachian glacigenic deposits are contemporaneous with glacial deposits in South America, and suggest that Late Devonian climatic cooling was global. This period of dramatic global cooling may represent the end of the mid-Paleozoic warm interval that began in the Middle Silurian. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

    2018-04-30

    The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

  19. The impact of dynamic topography change on Antarctic Ice Sheet stability during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austermann, J.; Pollard, D.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Deconto, R. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Raymo, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~ 3Ma), characterized by globally elevated temperatures (2-3º C) and carbon dioxide levels of ~400ppm, is commonly used as a testing ground for investigating ice sheet stability in a slightly warmer world. The central, unanswered question in this regard is the extent of East Antarctic melting during the MPWP. Here we assess the potential role of dynamic topography on this issue. Model reconstructions of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the ice age require an estimate of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models account for changes in bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), often using simplified models of the GIA process, but they generally do not consider other processes that may perturb subglacial topography. One such notable process is dynamic topography, i.e. the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow and buoyancy variations within the mantle and lithosphere. Paleo-shorelines of Pliocene age reflect the influence of dynamic topography, but the impact of these bedrock elevation changes on ice sheet stability in the Antarctic region is unknown. In this study we use viscous flow simulations of mantle dynamics to predict changes in dynamic topography and reconstruct bedrock elevations below the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the MPWP. We furthermore couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model in order to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the extent of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates that uplift occurred in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains and the adjacent Wilkes Basin. This predicted uplift, which is consistent with geological inferences of uplift in the Transantarctic Mountains, implies a significantly (~100-200 m) lower elevation of the Wilkes Basin in the Pliocene. This lower elevation leads to ~400 km of additional retreat of the grounding line in this region relative to simulations

  20. The Great Warming Brian Fagan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagan, B. M.

    2010-12-01

    The Great Warming is a journey back to the world of a thousand years ago, to the Medieval Warm Period. Five centuries of irregular warming from 800 to 1250 had beneficial effects in Europe and the North Atlantic, but brought prolonged droughts to much of the Americas and lands affected by the South Asian monsoon. The book describes these impacts of warming on medieval European societies, as well as the Norse and the Inuit of the far north, then analyzes the impact of harsh, lengthy droughts on hunting societies in western North America and the Ancestral Pueblo farmers of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico. These peoples reacted to drought by relocating entire communities. The Maya civilization was much more vulnerable that small-scale hunter-gatherer societies and subsistence farmers in North America. Maya rulers created huge water storage facilities, but their civilization partially collapsed under the stress of repeated multiyear droughts, while the Chimu lords of coastal Peru adapted with sophisticated irrigation works. The climatic villain was prolonged, cool La Niñalike conditions in the Pacific, which caused droughts from Venezuela to East Asia, and as far west as East Africa. The Great Warming argues that the warm centuries brought savage drought to much of humanity, from China to Peru. It also argues that drought is one of the most dangerous elements in today’s humanly created global warming, often ignored by preoccupied commentators, but with the potential to cause over a billion people to starve. Finally, I use the book to discuss the issues and problems of communicating multidisciplinary science to the general public.

  1. Long periods (1 -10 mHz) geomagnetic pulsations variation with solar cycle in South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigon Silva, Willian; Schuch, Nelson Jorge; Guimarães Dutra, Severino Luiz; Babulal Trivedi, Nalin; Claudir da Silva, Andirlei; Souza Savian, Fernando; Ronan Coelho Stekel, Tardelli; de Siqueira, Josemar; Espindola Antunes, Cassio

    The occurrence and intensity of the geomagnetic pulsations Pc-5 (2-7 mHz) and its relationship with the solar cycle in the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly -SAMA is presented. The study of geomagnetic pulsations is important to help the understanding of the physical processes that occurs in the magnetosphere region and help to predict geomagnetic storms. The fluxgate mag-netometers H, D and Z, three axis geomagnetic field data from the Southern Space Observatory -SSO/CRS/INPE -MCT, São Martinho da Serra (29.42° S, 53.87° W, 480m a.s.l.), RS, Brasil, a were analyzed and correlated with the solar wind parameters (speed, density and temperature) from the ACE and SOHO satellites. A digital filtering to enhance the 2-7 mHz geomagnetic pulsations was used. Five quiet days and five perturbed days in the solar minimum and in the solar maximum were selected for this analysis. The days were chosen based on the IAGA definition and on the Bartels Musical Diagrams (Kp index) for 2001 (solar maximum) and 2008 (solar minimum). The biggest Pc-5 amplitude averages differences between the H-component is 78,35 nT for the perturbed days and 1,60nT for the quiet days during the solar maximum. For perturbed days the average amplitude during the solar minimum is 8,32 nT, confirming a direct solar cycle influence in the geomagnetic pulsations intensity for long periods.

  2. The wave climate of the Northeast Atlantic over the period 1955-1994: the WASA wave hindcast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guenther, H.; Rosenthal, W.; Stawarz, M. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserphysik; Carretero, J.C.; Gomez, M.; Lozano, I.; Serrano, O. [Programa de Clima Maritimo (Puertos del Estado), Madrid (Spain); Reistad, M. [Det Norske Meteorologiske Inst., Bergen (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The European project ``waves and storms in the North Atlantic`` (WASA) has been set up to prove, or to disprove, hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas in the present century. A major obstacle for assessing changes in storm and wave conditions are inhomogeneities in the observational records, both in the local observations and in the analysed products, which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds and waves. Therefore, changes in the wave climate were assessed with a state-of-the-art wave model using wind analyses. Within the scope of the WASA project, a 40 year reconstruction (1955-1994) of the wave climate in the North Atlantic was completed using the WAM wave model. The input wind fields were assumed to be reasonably homogeneous with time in the area south of 70 N and east of 20 W, and it was expected that the hindcast wave data would reliably describe the space-time evolution of wave conditions in this area. The results of the hindcast experiment are presented in this article. The main conclusion was that the wave climate in most of the Northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on time scales of decades. Part of variability was found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation. As a general result we noted an increase of the maximum annual significant wave height over the last 40 years of about 5 to 10 cm/year for large parts of the Northeast Atlantic, north of the North Sea. There was also a slight increase of probabilities of high waves derived from conventional extreme value statistics in northwest approaches to the North Sea. Similar trends of the extreme waves were found in a scenario of future wave climate at a time of doubled C0{sub 2} concentration in the atmosphere. (orig.) 28 refs.

  3. Thermal Habitat Index of Many Northwest Atlantic Temperate Species Stays Neutral under Warming Projected for 2030 but Changes Radically by 2060

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Shackell, N.L.; Ricard, Daniel; Stortini, C.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 3 (2014), e90662 E-ISSN 1932-6203 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : climate change * environmental parameters * Atlantic Ocean * greenhouse effect Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.234, year: 2014

  4. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  5. Mediterranean climate change and Indian Ocean warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoerling, M.; Eischeid, J.; Hurrel, J.

    2006-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) responses to 20. century changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and greenhouse gases are diagnosed, with emphasis on their relationship to observed regional climate change over the Mediterranean region. A major question is whether the Mediterranean region's drying trend since 1950 can be understood as a consequence of the warming trend in tropical SSTs. We focus on the impact of Indian Ocean warming, which is itself the likely result of increasing greenhouse gases. It is discovered that a strong projection onto the positive polarity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index characterizes the atmospheric response structure to the 1950-1999 warming of Indian Ocean SSTs. This influence appears to be robust in so far as it is reproduced in ensembles of experiments using three different GCMs. Both the equilibrium and transient responses to Indian Ocean warming are examined. Under each scenario, the latitude of prevailing mid latitude westerlies shifts poleward during the November-April period. The consequence is a drying of the Mediterranean region, whereas northern Europe and Scandinavia receive increased precipitation in concert with the poleward shift of storminess. The IPCC (TAR) 20. century coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations forced by observed greenhouse gas changes also yield a post-1950 drying trend over the Mediterranean. We argue that this feature of human-induced regional climate change is the outcome of a dynamical feedback, one involving Indian Ocean warming and a requisite adjustment of atmospheric circulation systems to such ocean warming

  6. Statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warming as observed over the observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E) during the 1981-2001 period

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sivakumar, V

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available of stratospheric sudden warming as observed over the Observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E) during the period 1981-2001 D.V. Acharyulu, V. Sivakumar*, H. Bencherif, B. Morel, Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), CNRS–UMR 8105, Université de... La Réunion, FRANCE. * Also at National Laser Centre, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, SOUTH AFRICA. A. Hauchecorne Service d’Aéronomie, CNRS, Paris, FRANCE. D.N. Rao National Atmosphere Research Laboratory...

  7. Inter-annual variability of aerosol optical depth over the tropical Atlantic Ocean based on MODIS-Aqua observations over the period 2002-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkikas, Antonis; Hatzianastassiou, Nikolaos

    2013-04-01

    The tropical Atlantic Ocean is affected by dust and biomass burning aerosol loads transported from the western parts of the Saharan desert and the sub-Sahel regions, respectively. The spatial and temporal patterns of this transport are determined by the aerosol emission rates, their deposition (wet and dry), by the latitudinal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the prevailing wind fields. More specifically, in summer, Saharan dust aerosols are transported towards the Atlantic Ocean, even reaching the Gulf of Mexico, while in winter the Atlantic Ocean transport takes place in more southern latitudes, near the equator, sometimes reaching the northern parts of South America. In the later case, dust is mixed with biomass burning aerosols originating from agricultural activities in the sub-Sahel, associated with prevailing north-easterly airflow (Harmattan winds). Satellite observations are the appropriate tool for describing this African aerosol export, which is important to atmospheric, oceanic and climate processes, offering the advantage of complete spatial coverage. In the present study, we use satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth at 550nm (AOD550nm), on a daily and monthly basis, derived from MODIS-Aqua platform, at 1ox1o spatial resolution (Level 3), for the period 2002-2012. The primary objective is to determine the pixel-level and regional mean anomalies of AOD550nm over the entire study period. The regime of the anomalies of African export is interpreted in relation to the aerosol source areas, precipitation, wind patterns and temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). In order to ensure availability of AOD over the Sahara desert, MODIS-Aqua Deep Blue products are also used. As for precipitation, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data at 2.5ox2.5o are used. The wind fields are taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Apart from the regime of African aerosol export

  8. An Anatomy of the 1960s Atlantic Cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodson, Dan; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

    2014-05-01

    North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability during the 20th Century. In particular, the North Atlantic SSTs exhibited a rapid warming between 1920 and 1940 followed by a rapid cooling between 1960 and 1980. SSTs outside the North Atlantic display a much smaller level of decadal variability over the 20th Century. This pattern of North Atlantic warming and cooling has been linked to subsequent changes in rainfall over the Sahel and Nordeste Brazil, Summertime North American Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Genesis. Several hypotheses for the rapid 1960s Atlantic cooling have been proposed, including a reduction in northward ocean heat transport due to a reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the significant rise in anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions during the latter half of the 20th century. Here we examine the observed 1960s Atlantic cooling in more detail. We describe the evolution of the rapid cooling by constructing a detailed multivariate anatomy of the cooling period in order to illuminate the possible explanations and mechanisms involved. We show that the observed 1960s cooling began around 1964-68 in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) seas, later spreading to the Atlantic Sub Polar Gyre and much of the subtropical Atlantic. This initial cooling of the Sub Polar Gyre is associated with a marked reduction in salinity (the Great Salinity Anomaly). The cooling peaked between 1972-76, extending into the Tropical North Atlantic. This period also saw the development of a significant Winter North-South Dipole Mean Sea Level Pressure dipole pattern reminiscent of a positive NAO (High over the Azores, Low over Iceland). The cooling then retreated back to higher latitudes during 1976:80. Our analysis demonstrates that the cooling of the North Atlantic during the 1960s cannot be understood as a simple thermodynamic response to aerosol induced reductions in shortwave radiation. Dynamical changes

  9. Marine ecosystem response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Edwards

    Full Text Available Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural low-frequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (∼60 years is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world's longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries.

  10. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF WARM AND HOT JUPITERS: EFFECTS OF ORBITAL DISTANCE, ROTATION PERIOD, AND NONSYNCHRONOUS ROTATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Showman, Adam P. [Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, 1629 University Blvd., Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Lewis, Nikole K. [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J., E-mail: showman@lpl.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2015-03-10

    Efforts to characterize extrasolar giant planet (EGP) atmospheres have so far emphasized planets within 0.05 AU of their stars. Despite this focus, known EGPs populate a continuum of orbital separations from canonical hot Jupiter values (0.03–0.05 AU) out to 1 AU and beyond. Unlike typical hot Jupiters, these more distant EGPs will not generally be synchronously rotating. In anticipation of observations of this population, we here present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models exploring the dynamics that emerge over a broad range of rotation rates and incident stellar fluxes appropriate for warm and hot Jupiters. We find that the circulation resides in one of two basic regimes. On typical hot Jupiters, the strong day–night heating contrast leads to a broad, fast superrotating (eastward) equatorial jet and large day–night temperature differences. At faster rotation rates and lower incident fluxes, however, the day–night heating gradient becomes less important, and baroclinic instabilities emerge as a dominant player, leading to eastward jets in the midlatitudes, minimal temperature variations in longitude, and, often, weak winds at the equator. Our most rapidly rotating and least irradiated models exhibit similarities to Jupiter and Saturn, illuminating the dynamical continuum between hot Jupiters and the weakly irradiated giant planets of our own solar system. We present infrared (IR) light curves and spectra of these models, which depend significantly on incident flux and rotation rate. This provides a way to identify the regime transition in future observations. In some cases, IR light curves can provide constraints on the rotation rate of nonsynchronously rotating planets.

  11. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF WARM AND HOT JUPITERS: EFFECTS OF ORBITAL DISTANCE, ROTATION PERIOD, AND NONSYNCHRONOUS ROTATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Showman, Adam P.; Lewis, Nikole K.; Fortney, Jonathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to characterize extrasolar giant planet (EGP) atmospheres have so far emphasized planets within 0.05 AU of their stars. Despite this focus, known EGPs populate a continuum of orbital separations from canonical hot Jupiter values (0.03–0.05 AU) out to 1 AU and beyond. Unlike typical hot Jupiters, these more distant EGPs will not generally be synchronously rotating. In anticipation of observations of this population, we here present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models exploring the dynamics that emerge over a broad range of rotation rates and incident stellar fluxes appropriate for warm and hot Jupiters. We find that the circulation resides in one of two basic regimes. On typical hot Jupiters, the strong day–night heating contrast leads to a broad, fast superrotating (eastward) equatorial jet and large day–night temperature differences. At faster rotation rates and lower incident fluxes, however, the day–night heating gradient becomes less important, and baroclinic instabilities emerge as a dominant player, leading to eastward jets in the midlatitudes, minimal temperature variations in longitude, and, often, weak winds at the equator. Our most rapidly rotating and least irradiated models exhibit similarities to Jupiter and Saturn, illuminating the dynamical continuum between hot Jupiters and the weakly irradiated giant planets of our own solar system. We present infrared (IR) light curves and spectra of these models, which depend significantly on incident flux and rotation rate. This provides a way to identify the regime transition in future observations. In some cases, IR light curves can provide constraints on the rotation rate of nonsynchronously rotating planets

  12. Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances Observed During Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Equinox and Solstice Periods with Kharkiv and Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Radars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncharenko, L. P.; Panasenko, S.; Aksonova, K.; Erickson, P. J.; Domnin, I. F.

    2016-12-01

    Travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) play a key role in the coupling of different ionospheric regions through momentum an energy transfer. They are thought to be mostly associated with atmospheric gravity waves and are known to strongly affect radio propagation conditions. The incoherent scatter (IS) method enables TIDs detection in such ionospheric parameters as electron density, ion and electron temperatures, and plasma velocity along radar beam, thus providing critical information needed to examine different hypothesis about association of TIDs with their sources. In 2016, several joint measuring campaigns were conducted using Kharkiv (49.6 N, 36.4 E) and Millstone Hill (42.6 N, 288.5 E) IS radars. These campaigns covered the periods of sudden stratospheric warnings (SSW) in February, vernal equinox and summer solstice. For consistency, the data acquired by radars were processed using the same data analysis methods. The results obtained show the TIDs to be detected throughout all observation intervals in February measurements. The differences found in the behavior of TIDs over Kharkiv and Millstone Hill sites may be partially explained by variations in stratospheric wind velocity vectors during SSW period. As for March equinox and June solstice, the prevailing TIDs are observed near solar terminators. Their periods vary mostly in the range of 40 - 80 minutes, relative amplitudes are about 0.05 - 0.3 of the background electron density, and the maximum values are observed at the heights of 200 - 250 km. Systematic long-term observations of wave processes in the ionosphere with multiple IS facilities can reveal interhemispheric variability in TID parameters, give better understanding the mechanisms of TID generation and propagation, and improve regional and global ionospheric models.

  13. The Little Ice Age was 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzarella, Adriano; Scafetta, Nicola

    2018-02-01

    We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623-2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873-2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659-2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850-2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. We find that LOD is negatively correlated with the global SST and with both the integral function of ZI and NAO, which are labeled as IZI and INAO. A first result is that LOD must be driven by a climatic change induced by an external (e.g. solar/astronomical) forcing since internal variability alone would have likely induced a positive correlation among the same variables because of the conservation of the Earth's angular momentum. A second result is that the high correlation among the variables implies that the LOD and INAO records can be adopted as global proxies to reconstruct past climate change. Tentative global SST reconstructions since the seventeenth century suggest that around 1700, that is during the coolest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), SST could have been about 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than the 1950-1980 period. This estimated LIA cooling is greater than what some multiproxy global climate reconstructions suggested, but it is in good agreement with other more recent climate reconstructions including those based on borehole temperature data.

  14. Water mass spreading in the warm water sphere of the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Wassermassenausbreitung in der Warmwassersphaere des subtropischen Nordostatlantiks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stramma, L

    1984-01-01

    Geostrophic transports in the eastern subtropical North Atlantic computed from historic hydrographic data and recent CTD measurements show a mean transport in the subtropical gyre of 11(+-1.6) x 10/sup 6/m/sup 3/s/sup -1/ in the upper 1000 m between 35/sup 0/W and the African coast. The dynamic method was used in conjunction with a conservation of mass scheme to determine the level of no motion. This level lies at the 1200 m depth near the Azores and drops to 1500 m in the tropics. The main inflow enters south of the Azores as a relatively narrow current, turns southward at the latitude of Madeira and then widens. Three current bands transport the water southward. North of the Cape Verde Islands, the current turns westwards. This part of the North Equatorial Current extends more to the south in the upper 200 m than in the 200-800 m layer. The Portugal current, between the Azores and the Portuguese coast, which is thought by some authors to be strong, is seen here as a relatively weak flow. Maps of potential vorticity derived from smoothed density profiles are consistent with the general pattern of geostrophic transport. At 24/sup 0/N one third of the total geostrophic southward transport of the recirculation and one third of the temperature flux is transported in the eastern Atlantic east of 35/sup 0/W.

  15. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-06

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  16. Aerosol light absorption in the North Atlantic: trends and seasonal characteristics during the period 1989 to 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Junker

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol light attenuation on quartz fibre filters has been measured since February 1989 at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research station near Carna, Co. Galway, Ireland, using an Aethalometer. The frequency of occurrence of the hourly averaged aerosol absorption data is found to be bimodally distributed. The two modes result from clean marine air and anthropogenically polluted continental air both being advected to the station dependent on the prevailing wind direction. The hourly averages of the marine portion of the aerosol light absorption are found to follow closely a lognormal distribution with a geometric mean of 0.310 Mm-1. The hourly averages of continental sector aerosol absorption are neither normally nor lognormally distributed and have an arithmetic mean of 6.36 Mm-1, indicating the presence of anthropogenic sources for BC east of the Mace Head station. The time series of the monthly averaged attenuation coefficient σatt of both marine and continental sector aerosol shows an increase from 1989 to 1997 and a levelling off thereafter. The monthly maximum of marine sector σatt is found in May. Trend and seasonal characteristics of the clean marine aerosol attenuation coefficients observed at Mace Head appear to be driven by meteorological factors, as indicated by rainfall data and by trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO indices. The observed increasing trends of the continental sector σatt from 1989 up to 1997 are possibly related to changes in BC emissions over Ireland, calculated from UNSTAT (2002 fuel consumption data.

  17. Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

    2011-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

  18. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

    2017-01-01

    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  19. Dendroclimatic transfer functions revisited: Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period summer temperatures reconstructed using artificial neural networks and linear algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helama, S.; Holopainen, J.; Eronen, M. [Department of Geology, University of Helsinki, (Finland); Makarenko, N.G. [Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation). Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory; Karimova, L.M.; Kruglun, O.A. [Institute of Mathematics, Almaty (Kazakhstan); Timonen, M. [Finnish Forest Research Institute, Rovaniemi Research Unit (Finland); Merilaeinen, J. [SAIMA Unit of the Savonlinna Department of Teacher Education, University of Joensuu (Finland)

    2009-07-01

    Tree-rings tell of past climates. To do so, tree-ring chronologies comprising numerous climate-sensitive living-tree and subfossil time-series need to be 'transferred' into palaeoclimate estimates using transfer functions. The purpose of this study is to compare different types of transfer functions, especially linear and nonlinear algorithms. Accordingly, multiple linear regression (MLR), linear scaling (LSC) and artificial neural networks (ANN, nonlinear algorithm) were compared. Transfer functions were built using a regional tree-ring chronology and instrumental temperature observations from Lapland (northern Finland and Sweden). In addition, conventional MLR was compared with a hybrid model whereby climate was reconstructed separately for short- and long-period timescales prior to combining the bands of timescales into a single hybrid model. The fidelity of the different reconstructions was validated against instrumental climate data. The reconstructions by MLR and ANN showed reliable reconstruction capabilities over the instrumental period (AD 1802-1998). LCS failed to reach reasonable verification statistics and did not qualify as a reliable reconstruction: this was due mainly to exaggeration of the low-frequency climatic variance. Over this instrumental period, the reconstructed low-frequency amplitudes of climate variability were rather similar by MLR and ANN. Notably greater differences between the models were found over the actual reconstruction period (AD 802-1801). A marked temperature decline, as reconstructed by MLR, from the Medieval Warm Period (AD 931-1180) to the Little Ice Age (AD 1601-1850), was evident in all the models. This decline was approx. 0.5 C as reconstructed by MLR. Different ANN based palaeotemperatures showed simultaneous cooling of 0.2 to 0.5 C, depending on algorithm. The hybrid MLR did not seem to provide further benefit above conventional MLR in our sample. The robustness of the conventional MLR over the calibration

  20. Increased ventilation of Antarctic deep water during the warm mid-Pliocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhongshi; Nisancioglu, Kerim H; Ninnemann, Ulysses S

    2013-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period is a recent warm geological period that shares similarities with predictions of future climate. It is generally held the mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation must have been stronger, to explain a weak Atlantic meridional δ(13)C gradient and large northern high-latitude warming. However, climate models do not simulate such stronger Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, when forced with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions. Proxy reconstructions allow for an alternative scenario that the weak δ(13)C gradient can be explained by increased ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Here this alternative scenario is supported by simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM-L), which simulate an intensified and slightly poleward shifted wind field off Antarctica, giving enhanced ventilation and reduced stratification in the Southern Ocean. Our findings challenge the prevailing theory and show how increased Southern Ocean ventilation can reconcile existing model-data discrepancies about Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation while explaining fundamental ocean features.

  1. A seesaw in Mediterranean precipitation during the Roman Period linked to millennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dermody, B.; Boer, H.J. de; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Weber, S.L.; Wassen, M.J.; Dekker, S.C.

    2012-01-01

    We present a reconstruction of the change in climatic humidity around the Mediterranean between 3000– 1000 yr BP. Using a range of proxy archives and model simulations we demonstrate that climate during this period was typified by a millennial-scale seesaw in climatic humidity between Spain and

  2. Oceanic and atmospheric patterns during spawning periods prior to extreme catches of the Brazilian sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis in the southwest Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Cachanhuk Soares

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Relative maxima and minima of landings of Brazilian sardine captured in the Southeast Brazil Bight (SBB were compared with oceanic and atmospheric composites relative to the spawning period in December and January, prior to these landings. Atmospheric and oceanic variables such as wind stress, Ekman transport, mixing index, sea surface temperature (SST, precipitation, outgoing long wave radiation and geopotential height were analyzed, revealing distinct climatological patterns in the SBB for these extreme catches that have not been described before. The system could be characterized by cooler SST composite anomaly (SSTA along the SBB as a response to increased cloud cover and reduced incidence of short-wave radiation, predominating one year before the Brazilian sardine catch maxima. This system can take on a different configuration in which positive SSTA condition in the SBB is associated with a less intense South Atlantic Convergence Zone displaced southwards one year before the period of minimum catch. Our results indicate that the spatial structure of the spawning habitat is influenced by specific ocean-atmosphere interactions rather than simply resulting from the choice of a stable environment. This climatic constraint strongly affects the interannual variability of the Brazilian sardine production.

  3. Variations in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange across the late Pliocene climate transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Gallardo, Ángela; Grunert, Patrick; Piller, Werner E.

    2018-03-01

    Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar plays a significant role in the global ocean-climate dynamics in two ways. On one side, the injection of the saline and warm Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) contributes to North Atlantic deep-water formation. In return, the Atlantic inflow is considered a sink of less saline water for the North Atlantic Ocean. However, while the history of MOW is the focus of numerous studies, the Pliocene Atlantic inflow has received little attention so far. The present study provides an assessment of the Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange with a focus on the Atlantic inflow strength and its response to regional and global climate from 3.33 to 2.60 Ma. This time interval comprises the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; 3.29-2.97 Ma) and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG). For this purpose, gradients in surface δ18O records of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber between the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Hole U1389E (Gulf of Cádiz) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 978A (Alboran Sea) have been evaluated. Interglacial stages and warm glacials of the MPWP revealed steep and reversed (relative to the present) W-E δ18O gradients suggesting a weakening of Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange likely caused by high levels of relative humidity in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, periods of stronger inflow are indicated by flat δ18O gradients due to more intense arid conditions during the severe glacial Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 and the initiation of NHG (MIS G22, G14, G6-104). Intensified Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange in cold periods is linked to the occurrence of ice-rafted debris (IRD) at low latitudes and a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our results thus suggest the development of a negative feedback between AMOC and exchange rates at the Strait of Gibraltar in the latest Pliocene as it has been proposed for the late Quaternary.

  4. The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia; Lin, Pu

    2015-07-30

    Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively forced SAT changes from raw SAT data. The dynamically induced SAT changes exhibited an obvious cooling effect relative to the warming effect of the adjusted SAT in the hiatus process. A correlation analysis suggests that the changes are dominated primarily by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Our results confirm that dynamically induced variability caused the WTS. The radiatively forced SAT changes are determined mainly by anthropogenic forcing, indicating the warming influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which reached levels of 400 ppm during the hiatus period. Therefore, the global SAT will not remain permanently neutral. The increased radiatively forced SAT will be amplified by increased dynamically induced SAT when the natural mode returns to a warming phase in the next period.

  5. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-03

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  6. Atlantic Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elands, B.H.M.; Bell, S.; Blok, J.

    2010-01-01

    Chapter 2 explores recreation and tourism practices in forest areas in the Atlantic region, which refers to the geographical area close to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic countries described in this section are Belgium (Flanders and Wallonia), Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, the

  7. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-09-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including the adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modelling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we introduce results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions including mechanical stability estimates for the mid and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided in comparison to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model relating avalanche activity to snow and meteorological conditions, so as to produce the first projection on annual/seasonal timescales of future natural avalanche activity based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of anticipation of changes. Whereas precipitation is expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will constrain the evolution of snow-related variables on all considered spatio-temporal scales and will, in particular, lead to a reduction of the dry snowpack and an increase of the wet snowpack. Overall, compared to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid century. Changes in winter are less important than in spring, but wet-snow conditions are projected to appear at high elevations earlier in the season. At the same altitude, the southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the northern French Alps, which means that the snowpack will be preserved for longer in the southern massifs which are higher on average. Regarding avalanche activity, a general decrease in mean (20-30%) and interannual variability is

  8. Forest productivity in southwestern Europe is controlled by coupled North Atlantic and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan A; Herrero, Asier; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Stoffel, Markus; Lucas-Borja, Manuel E; Andivia, Enrique; Sancho-García, Cesar; Zavala, Miguel A

    2017-12-20

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) depicts annual and decadal oscillatory modes of variability responsible for dry spells over the European continent. The NAO therefore holds a great potential to evaluate the role, as carbon sinks, of water-limited forests under climate change. However, uncertainties related to inconsistent responses of long-term forest productivity to NAO have so far hampered firm conclusions on its impacts. We hypothesize that, in part, such inconsistencies might have their origin in periodical sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean (i.e., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO). Here we show strong empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis using 120 years of periodical inventory data from Iberian pine forests. Our results point to AMO + NAO + and AMO - NAO - phases as being critical for forest productivity, likely due to decreased winter water balance and abnormally low winter temperatures, respectively. Our findings could be essential for the evaluation of ecosystem functioning vulnerabilities associated with increased climatic anomalies under unprecedented warming conditions in the Mediterranean.

  9. Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grosfeld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960. Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

  10. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    Canada's Green Plan strategy for dealing with global warming is being implemented as a multidepartmental partnership involving all Canadians and the international community. Many of the elements of this strategy are built on an existing base of activities predating the Green Plan. Elements of the strategy include programs to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, such as initiatives to encourage more energy-efficient practices and development of alternate fuel sources; studies and policy developments to help Canadians prepare and adapt to climate change; research on the global warming phenomenon; and stimulation of international action on global warming, including obligations arising out of the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All the program elements have been approved, funded, and announced. Major achievements to date are summarized, including improvements in the Energy Efficiency Act, studies on the socioeconomic impacts of global warming, and participation in monitoring networks. Milestones associated with the remaining global warming initiatives are listed

  11. The role of the subtropical North Atlantic water cycle in recent US extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Schmitt, Raymond W.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.

    2018-02-01

    The role of the oceanic water cycle in the record-breaking 2015 warm-season precipitation in the US is analyzed. The extreme precipitation started in the Southern US in the spring and propagated northward to the Midwest and the Great Lakes in the summer of 2015. This seasonal evolution of precipitation anomalies represents a typical mode of variability of US warm-season precipitation. Analysis of the atmospheric moisture flux suggests that such a rainfall mode is associated with moisture export from the subtropical North Atlantic. In the spring, excessive precipitation in the Southern US is attributable to increased moisture flux from the northwestern portion of the subtropical North Atlantic. The North Atlantic moisture flux interacts with local soil moisture which enables the US Midwest to draw more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico in the summer. Further analysis shows that the relationship between the rainfall mode and the North Atlantic water cycle has become more significant in recent decades, indicating an increased likelihood of extremes like the 2015 case. Indeed, two record-high warm-season precipitation events, the 1993 and 2008 cases, both occurred in the more recent decades of the 66 year analysis period. The export of water from the North Atlantic leaves a marked surface salinity signature. The salinity signature appeared in the spring preceding all three extreme precipitation events analyzed in this study, i.e. a saltier-than-normal subtropical North Atlantic in spring followed by extreme Midwest precipitation in summer. Compared to the various sea surface temperature anomaly patterns among the 1993, 2008, and 2015 cases, the spatial distribution of salinity anomalies was much more consistent during these extreme flood years. Thus, our study suggests that preseason salinity patterns can be used for improved seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation in the Midwest.

  12. Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)

  13. Main processes of the Atlantic cold tongue interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planton, Yann; Voldoire, Aurore; Giordani, Hervé; Caniaux, Guy

    2018-03-01

    The interannual variability of the Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) is studied by means of a mixed-layer heat budget analysis. A method to classify extreme cold and warm ACT events is proposed and applied to ten various analysis and reanalysis products. This classification allows 5 cold and 5 warm ACT events to be selected over the period 1982-2007. Cold (warm) ACT events are defined by the presence of negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the center of the equatorial Atlantic in late boreal spring, preceded by negative (positive) zonal wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Atlantic. An ocean general circulation model capable of reconstructing the interannual variability of the ACT correctly is used to demonstrate that cold ACT events develop rapidly from May to June mainly due to intense cooling by vertical mixing and horizontal advection. The simulated cooling at the center of the basin is the result of the combined effects of non-local and local processes. The non-local process is an upwelling associated with an eastward-propagating Kelvin wave, which makes the mixed-layer more shallow and preconditions the upper layers to be cooled by an intense heat loss at the base of the mixed-layer, which is amplified by a stronger local injection of energy from the atmosphere. The early cooling by vertical mixing in March is also shown to be a good predictor of June cooling. In July, horizontal advection starts to warm the mixed-layer abnormally and damps SST anomalies. The advection anomalies, which result from changes in the horizontal temperature gradient, are associated in some cases with the propagation of Rossby waves along the equator. During warm ACT events, processes are reversed, generating positive SST anomalies: a downwelling Kelvin wave triggers stratification anomalies and mixed-layer depth anomalies, amplified by a weaker injection of energy from the atmosphere in May-June. In July, warm ACT events are abnormally cooled due to

  14. Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2017-10-01

    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

  15. Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

    2012-07-01

    The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP) climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period. In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this time period. Further

  16. Contributions of Tropical Cyclones to the North Atlantic Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward B.; Adler, Robert F.; Pierce, Harold F.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The tropical cyclone rainfall climatology study that was performed for the North Pacific was extended to the North Atlantic. Similar to the North Pacific tropical cyclone study, mean monthly rainfall within 444 km of the center of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones (i.e., that reached storm stage and greater) was estimated from passive microwave satellite observations during, an eleven year period. These satellite-observed rainfall estimates were used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Atlantic total rainfall during, June-November when tropical cyclones were most abundant. The main results from this study indicate: 1) that tropical cyclones contribute, respectively, 4%, 3%, and 4% to the western, eastern, and entire North Atlantic; 2) similar to that observed in the North Pacific, the maximum in North Atlantic tropical cyclone rainfall is approximately 5 - 10 deg poleward (depending on longitude) of the maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute regionally a maximum of 30% of the total rainfall 'northeast of Puerto Rico, within a region near 15 deg N 55 deg W, and off the west coast of Africa; 4) there is no lag between the months with maximum tropical cyclone rainfall and non-tropical cyclone rainfall in the western North Atlantic, while in the eastern North Atlantic, maximum tropical cyclone rainfall precedes maximum non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 5) like the North Pacific, North Atlantic tropical cyclones Of hurricane intensity generate the greatest amount of rainfall in the higher latitudes; and 6) warm ENSO events inhibit tropical cyclone rainfall.

  17. Global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, John

    2005-01-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources

  18. Seabird transfer of nutrients and trace elements from the north water polynya to land during the mid-holocene warm period, carey islands, northwest Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Outridge, Peter M.; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Bennike, Ole

    2016-01-01

    Seabird guano from large nesting colonies is known to increase trace metal levels in adjacent terrestrial environments today, when global oceans are contaminated with Hg, Cd, and other metals. But the effect of seabird guano in the pre-industrial period has rarely been studied. We used stable C...... and N isotopic and trace element analyses of a peat core that represents ca. 2000 years of organic matter accumulation to examine the effect on trace elements and nutrients of a seabird colony that existed in northern Baffin Bay during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 8000-5000 yr BP). Although C and N......, in which guano markedly increased environmental Hg concentrations. It could be a consequence of Hg concentrations in Arctic marine food webs in the pre-industrial period that were an order of magnitude lower than those of today....

  19. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

    KAUST Repository

    Saenger, Casey; Cohen, Anne L.; Oppo, Delia W.; Halley, Robert B.; Carilli, Jessica E.

    2009-01-01

    Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  20. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

    KAUST Repository

    Saenger, Casey

    2009-06-21

    Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  1. Simulated variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentsen, M.; Drange, H.; Furevik, T.; Zhou, T.

    To examine the multi-annual to decadal scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) we conducted a four-member ensemble with a daily reanalysis forced, medium-resolution global version of the isopycnic coordinate ocean model MICOM, and a 300-years integration with the fully coupled Bergen Climate Model (BCM). The simulations of the AMOC with both model systems yield a long-term mean value of 18 Sv and decadal variability with an amplitude of 1-3 Sv. The power spectrum of the inter-annual to decadal scale variability of the AMOC in BCM generally follows the theoretical red noise spectrum, with indications of increased power near the 20-years period. Comparison with observational proxy indices for the AMOC, e.g. the thickness of the Labrador Sea Water, the strength of the baroclinic gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the surface temperature anomalies along the mean path of the Gulf Stream, shows similar trends and phasing of the variability, indicating that the simulated AMOC variability is robust and real. Mixing indices have been constructed for the Labrador, the Irminger and the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) seas. While convective mixing in the Labrador and the GIN seas are in opposite phase, and linked to the NAO as observations suggest, the convective mixing in the Irminger Sea is in phase with or leads the Labrador Sea. Newly formed deep water is seen as a slow, anomalous cold and fresh, plume flowing southward along the western continental slope of the Atlantic Ocean, with a return flow of warm and saline water on the surface. In addition, fast-travelling topographically trapped waves propagate southward along the continental slope towards equator, where they go east and continue along the eastern rim of the Atlantic. For both types of experiments, the Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure and 2 m temperature anomaly patterns computed based on the difference between climate states with strong and weak AMOC

  2. Paleohydrology of tropical South America and paleoceanography of the tropical Atlantic as deduced from two new sediment cores on the Brazilian continental slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nace, T.; Baker, P. A.; Dwyer, G. S.; Silva, C. G.; Hollander, D. J.; Rigsby, C. A.; Giosan, L.; Burns, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    Paleoclimate/paleoceanographic reconstructions of the Amazon Basin, Brazilian Nordeste, and western equatorial Atlantic have been undertaken on two new sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope (Core CDH-5 at 1708 mbsl, 4N, 48W, 32m long, ~30 ka record; Core CDH-86 at 3708 mbsl, 0N/S, 44W, 30m long, ~100ka record). High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, and Ca are used to define the paleohydrologic history of the adjacent continent at both sites. Large and abrupt excursions of Ti/Ca ratios are observed in both cores, but are significantly better defined in the southern core, representative of Nordeste conditions. In this core there are a total of 9 Ti/Ca excursions, the oldest recovered dating to ~98ka. These excursions correlate well with Heinrich events from the North Atlantic. High-resolution stable oxygen isotopic analysis and Mg/Ca paleothermometry undertaken on the near-surface-dwelling planktic foraminiferal species Globierinoides ruber provide a picture of paleoceanographic forcings in the western equatorial Atlantic. The northern and southern cores respectively exhibit rapid warming of ~3C and ~3.5C between the last glacial maximum and the early Holocene. Furthermore, in almost all cases, during the last glacial stage, there was a 0.5C to 2C warming of the western equatorial Atlantic during the periods of high Ti/Ca ratios that correlate with Heinrich events. Thus, as observed in some previous studies, the western equatorial Atlantic was warm and the adjacent southern tropical continent was wet at the same time that the high-latitude North Atlantic was cold. The largely accepted paradigm is that Northern hemisphere cold events result in a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), contributing to drier conditions at the northern extent of the ITCZ annual range (Cariaco Basin) and increased precipitation in the southern tropics of South America. The ITCZ appears to have been influenced by millennial variability of

  3. Seasonal and annual variation in planktonic foraminiferal fluxes including warm period related El Niño in the northwestern North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroyanagi, A.; Kawahata, H.; Nishi, H.; Honda, M. C.

    2007-12-01

    Planktonic foraminifera provide a record of the upper ocean environment through their species assemblage and individual tests. To investigate the relationship between foraminifera and oceanographic conditions and the impact of El Niño on foraminifera, we analyzed foraminiferal fluxes and relative abundances by using sediment trap samples collected biweekly at three sites in the northwestern North Pacific: Site 40N (39 °60'N, 165 °00'E), Site KNOT (43 °58'N, 155 °03'E), and Site 50N (50 °01'N, 165 °02'E) from 1998- 2001, a period that included an El Niño effect. Based on foraminiferal production and assemblage composition, we divided the sampling duration into several periods during which certain characteristic oceanographic properties were observed. These sampling periods were classified into five types (I-V) based upon four factors: 1) the predominant foraminiferal group, 2) total foraminiferal fluxes (TFFs), 3) organic matter (OM) fluxes, and 4) hydrographic conditions, which included sea surface temperature (SST) and thermal structure. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foraminifera were closely related to water mass properties in addition to SST. If species compositions were the same, then water mass properties were the most important factors affecting the seasonal variation of foraminiferal abundance in the northwestern North Pacific. Although one of the major controlling factors for foraminiferal fluxes is food availability, the controlling factors for each type (types I-V) are different because of specific oceanographic situations, such as phytoplankton blooms, which result in an excess food supply for foraminifera. At Site KNOT in 1998, SST was remarkably high because of El Niño, and high surface temperatures and weak winds would have lowered nutrient supply and intensified water column stratification, resulting in the relatively low fluxes of total foraminifera, N. pachyderma, and G. bulloides, and the high fluxes of N. dutertrei that

  4. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

    2013-01-01

    During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  5. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Macias

    Full Text Available During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  6. Property Changes of Abyssal Waters in the Western Tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrford, Josefine; Brandt, Peter; Zenk, Walter

    2017-04-01

    Flowing northward towards the equator, Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) encounters the lighter overlying North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), both water masses creating an abyssal stratification and gradually mixing across their interface. Changes in the associated water mass formation and/or along-path transformation, observable in the evolution of water mass volume and characteristics, might impact the deep oceans uptake of anthropogenic CO2 or its contribution to global sea level rise. We compile historic and recent shipboard measurements of hydrography and velocity to provide a comprehensive view on water mass distribution, pathways, along-path transformation and long-term temperature changes of abyssal waters in the western South and Equatorial Atlantic. We are able to confirm previous results showing that the northwest corner of the Brazil Basin represents a splitting point for the southward/northward flow of NADW/AABW. The available measurements sample water mass transformation along the two major routes for deep and bottom waters in the tropical to South Atlantic - along the deep western boundary and eastward, parallel to the equator - as well as the hot spots of extensive mixing. We find lower NADW and lighter AABW to form a highly interactive transition layer in the northern Brazil Basin. The AABW north of 5°S is relatively homogeneous with only lighter AABW being able to pass through the Equatorial Channel (EQCH) into the North Atlantic. Spanning a period of 26 years, our data also allow an estimation of long-term temperature trends in abyssal waters. We find a warming of 2.5 ± 0.7•10-3 °C yr-1 of the waters in the northern Brazil Basin being colder than 0.6 °C throughout the period 1989-2014 and can relate that warming to a thinning of the dense AABW layer. While isopycnal heave is the dominant effect defining the vertical distribution of temperature trends on isobars, we also find temperature changes on isopycnals in the transition layer the lower NADW

  7. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  8. Splitting of Atlantic water transport towards the Arctic Ocean into the Fram Strait and Barents Sea Branches - mechanisms and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beszczynska-Möller, Agnieszka; Skagseth, Øystein; von Appen, Wilken-Jon; Walczowski, Waldemar; Lien, Vidar

    2016-04-01

    Greenland Seas, strengthening the coherent shelf break current along the eastern rim of the Nordic Seas. However, long-term moored observations in the Barents Sea Opening and the northern Fram Strait reveal that Atlantic water transport in both branches vary with the opposite phase on the inter-annual time scale. This suggests that in the periods of weaker Atlantic water flow in the shelf break current, the increased transport in the Barents Sea Branch can also further weaken the Fram Strait Branch. The anomalously warm AW inflow in the Fram Strait Branch has a strong impact on sea ice conditions in the southern Nansen Basin, while positive transport anomalies in the Barents Sea Branch increase availability of oceanic heat in the Barents Sea and subsequently influence its sea ice cover. Here we present the results of the Polish-Norwegian project PAVE, focusing on variability and recent warming of the Atlantic Water inflow through Fram Strait and Barents Sea, and addressing mechanisms that govern the AW split between both branches and its potential consequences.

  9. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation footprint on global high cloud cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaideanu, Petru; Dima, Mihai; Voiculescu, Mirela

    2017-12-01

    Due to the complexity of the physical processes responsible for cloud formation and to the relatively short satellite database of continuous data records, cloud behavior in a warming climate remains uncertain. Identifying physical links between climate modes and clouds would contribute not only to a better understanding of the physical processes governing their formation and dynamics, but also to an improved representation of the clouds in climate models. Here, we identify the global footprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on high cloud cover, with focus on the tropical and North Atlantic, tropical Pacific and on the circum-Antarctic sector. In the tropical band, the sea surface temperature (SST) and high cloud cover (HCC) anomalies are positively correlated, indicating a dominant role played by convection in mediating the influence of the AMO-related SST anomalies on the HCC field. The negative SST-HCC correlation observed in North Atlantic could be explained by the reduced meridional temperature gradient induced by the AMO positive phase, which would be reflected in less storms and negative HCC anomalies. A similar negative SST-HCC correlation is observed around Antarctica. The corresponding negative correlation around Antarctica could be generated dynamically, as a response to the intensified upward motion in the Ferrel cell. Despite the inherent imperfection of the observed and reanalysis data sets, the AMO footprint on HCC is found to be robust to the choice of dataset, statistical method, and specific time period considered.

  10. Mechanism for the recent ocean warming events on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brickman, D.; Hebert, D.; Wang, Z.

    2018-03-01

    In 2012, 2014, and 2015 anomalous warm events were observed in the subsurface waters in the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. Monthly output from a high resolution numerical ocean model simulation of the North Atlantic ocean for the period 1990-2015 is used to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the model shows skill in simulating the anomaly fields derived from various sources of data, and the observed warming trend over the last decade. From analysis of the model run it is found that the anomalies originate from the interaction between the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current at the tail of the Grand Banks (south of Newfoundland). This interaction results in the creation of anomalous warm/salty (or cold/fresh) eddies that travel east-to-west along the shelfbreak. These anomalies penetrate into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, onto the Scotian Shelf, and into the Gulf of Maine via deep channels along the shelfbreak. The observed warming trend can be attributed to an increase in the frequency of creation of warm anomalies during the last decade. Strong anomalous events are commonly observed in the data and model, and thus should be considered as part of the natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.

  11. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

  12. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  13. Property changes of deep and bottom waters in the Western Tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrford, Josefine; Brandt, Peter; Zenk, Walter

    2017-06-01

    The flow of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) contributes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Changes in the associated water mass formation might impact the deep ocean's capacity to take up anthropogenic CO2 while a warming of the deep ocean significantly contributes to global sea level rise. Here we compile historic and recent shipboard measurements of hydrography and velocity to provide a comprehensive view of water mass distribution, pathways, along-path transformation and long-term temperature changes of NADW and AABW in the western South and Equatorial Atlantic. We confirm previous results which show that the northwest corner of the Brazil Basin represents a splitting point for the southward/northward flow of NADW/AABW. The available measurements sample water mass transformation along the two major routes for deep and bottom waters in the tropical to South Atlantic - along the deep western boundary and eastward, parallel to the equator - as well as the hot-spots of extensive mixing. We find lower NADW and lighter AABW to form a highly interactive transition layer in the northern Brazil Basin. The AABW north of 5°S is relatively homogeneous with only lighter AABW being able to pass through the Equatorial Channel (EQCH) into the North Atlantic. Spanning a period of 26 years, our data also allow an estimation of long-term temperature trends in abyssal waters. We find a warming of 2.5±0.7•10-3 °C yr-1 of the waters in the northern Brazil Basin at temperatures colder than 0.6 °C throughout the period 1989-2014 and can relate this warming to a thinning of the dense AABW layer. Whereas isopycnal heave is the dominant effect which defines the vertical distribution of temperature trends on isobars, we also find temperature changes on isopycnals in the lower NADW and AABW layers. There temperatures on isopycnals exhibit decadal variations with warming in the 1990s and cooling in the 2000s - the contributions to the

  14. Interannual-to-decadal air-sea interactions in the tropical Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Barradas, Alfredo

    2001-09-01

    The present research identifies modes of atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Atlantic region and the mechanisms by which air-sea interactions influence the regional climate. Novelties of the present work are (1)the use of relevant ocean and atmosphere variables important to identity coupled variability in the system. (2)The use of new data sets, including realistic diabatic heating. (3)The study of interactions between ocean and atmosphere relevant at interannual-to-decadal time scales. Two tropical modes of variability are identified during the period 1958-1993, the Atlantic Niño mode and the Interhemispheric mode. Those modes have defined structures in both ocean and atmosphere. Anomalous sea surface temperatures and winds are associated to anomalous placement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). They develop maximum amplitude during boreal summer and spring, respectively. The anomalous positioning of the ITCZ produces anomalous precipitation in some places like Nordeste, Brazil and the Caribbean region. Through the use of a diagnostic primitive equation model, it is found that the most important terms controlling local anomalous surface winds over the ocean are boundary layer temperature gradients and diabatic heating anomalies at low levels (below 780 mb). The latter is of particular importance in the deep tropics in producing the anomalous meridional response to the surface circulation. Simulated latent heat anomalies indicate that a thermodynamic feedback establishes positive feedbacks at both sides of the equator and west of 20°W in the deep tropics and a negative feedback in front of the north west coast of Africa for the Interhemispheric mode. This thermodynamic feedback only establishes negative feedbacks for the Atlantic Niño mode. Transients establish some connection between the tropical Atlantic and other basins. Interhemispheric gradients of surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic influence winds in the midlatitude North

  15. Ecosystem maturation follows the warming of the Arctic fjords

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Marcin Węsławski; Friedrich Buchholz; Marta Głuchowska; Agata Weydmann

    2017-01-01

    Two fjords in West Spitsbergen (Hornsund 77°N and Kongsfjorden 79°N) differ with regard to their exposure towards increasingly warm Atlantic water inflow. Hornsund remains in many respects cooler than Kongsfjorden (on average 2°C SST in summer) and is less influenced by warmer and more saline Atlantic waters. Reported changes in the physical environment (temperature rise, freshwater inflow, salinity drop, turbidity, fast-ice reduction, coastal change) are discussed in the context of biologica...

  16. North Atlantic variability and its links to European climate over the last 3000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moffa-Sánchez, Paola; Hall, Ian R

    2017-11-23

    The subpolar North Atlantic is a key location for the Earth's climate system. In the Labrador Sea, intense winter air-sea heat exchange drives the formation of deep waters and the surface circulation of warm waters around the subpolar gyre. This process therefore has the ability to modulate the oceanic northward heat transport. Recent studies reveal decadal variability in the formation of Labrador Sea Water. Yet, crucially, its longer-term history and links with European climate remain limited. Here we present new decadally resolved marine proxy reconstructions, which suggest weakened Labrador Sea Water formation and gyre strength with similar timing to the centennial cold periods recorded in terrestrial climate archives and historical records over the last 3000 years. These new data support that subpolar North Atlantic circulation changes, likely forced by increased southward flow of Arctic waters, contributed to modulating the climate of Europe with important societal impacts as revealed in European history.

  17. Fewer bacteria in warm water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagh, Lene

    1999-01-01

    There has been many suggestions to how the ideal warm water system should be. Particularly whether warm water containers or heat exchangers in larger houses are the best solutions in order to maintain a water quality with low levels of bacteria. In an investigation made by Statens Byggeforskningsinstitutt (Denmark) regarding ''Bacterial growth in warm water installations with heat exchangers'' there were used several heat exchangers made by Gjelsted and Lund of three of which had HWAT heating cables. The bacterial content was low from these exchangers compared to exchangers with circulation. The article presents promising results from a study where the method was investigated over a longer period in two new larger warm water systems. Some energy conservation aspects are discussed

  18. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  19. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E; Chust, G; Licandro, P; Butenschö n, M; Ibaibarriaga, L; Larrañ aga, A; Irigoien, Xabier

    2015-01-01

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  20. The intertropical convergence zone modulates intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hengstum, Peter J; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Fall, Patricia L; Toomey, Michael R; Albury, Nancy A; Kakuk, Brian

    2016-02-24

    Most Atlantic hurricanes form in the Main Development Region between 9°N to 20°N along the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Previous research has suggested that meridional shifts in the ITCZ position on geologic timescales can modulate hurricane activity, but continuous and long-term storm records are needed from multiple sites to assess this hypothesis. Here we present a 3000 year record of intense hurricane strikes in the northern Bahamas (Abaco Island) based on overwash deposits in a coastal sinkhole, which indicates that the ITCZ has likely helped modulate intense hurricane strikes on the western North Atlantic margin on millennial to centennial-scales. The new reconstruction closely matches a previous reconstruction from Puerto Rico, and documents a period of elevated intense hurricane activity on the western North Atlantic margin from 2500 to 1000 years ago when paleo precipitation proxies suggest that the ITCZ occupied a more northern position. Considering that anthropogenic warming is predicted to be focused in the northern hemisphere in the coming century, these results provide a prehistoric analog that an attendant northern ITCZ shift in the future may again return the western North Atlantic margin to an active hurricane interval.

  1. Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.

    2009-10-01

    One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation.

  2. Ability of an ensemble of regional climate models to reproduce weather regimes over Europe-Atlantic during the period 1961-2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Somot, S.; Deque, M. [Meteo-France CNRM/GMGEC CNRS/GAME, Toulouse (France); Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia

    2009-10-15

    One of the main concerns in regional climate modeling is to which extent limited-area regional climate models (RCM) reproduce the large-scale atmospheric conditions of their driving general circulation model (GCM). In this work we investigate the ability of a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations to reproduce the large-scale weather regimes of the driving conditions. The ensemble consists of a set of 13 RCMs on a European domain, driven at their lateral boundaries by the ERA40 reanalysis for the time period 1961-2000. Two sets of experiments have been completed with horizontal resolutions of 50 and 25 km, respectively. The spectral nudging technique has been applied to one of the models within the ensemble. The RCMs reproduce the weather regimes behavior in terms of composite pattern, mean frequency of occurrence and persistence reasonably well. The models also simulate well the long-term trends and the inter-annual variability of the frequency of occurrence. However, there is a non-negligible spread among the models which is stronger in summer than in winter. This spread is due to two reasons: (1) we are dealing with different models and (2) each RCM produces an internal variability. As far as the day-to-day weather regime history is concerned, the ensemble shows large discrepancies. At daily time scale, the model spread has also a seasonal dependence, being stronger in summer than in winter. Results also show that the spectral nudging technique improves the model performance in reproducing the large-scale of the driving field. In addition, the impact of increasing the number of grid points has been addressed by comparing the 25 and 50 km experiments. We show that the horizontal resolution does not affect significantly the model performance for large-scale circulation. (orig.)

  3. Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, R.

    2012-12-01

    During the last ice age, several abrupt warming events took place, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. Their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature increase. The leading hypothesis to explain their occurrence postulates that the warming was caused by abrupt disruptions of the North Atlantic Current due to meltwater discharge from destabilized ice sheets (Heinrich events). However, the number of warming events outnumber the those of ice-sheet collapse. Thus, the majority of D-O events are not attributed to surface freshwater anomalies, and the underlying mechanism behind their occurrence remain unexplained. Using a simple dynamical model of sea ice and an overturning circulation, I show the existence of self-sustained relaxation oscillations in the overturning circulation. The insulating effect of sea ice is shown to paradoxically lead to a net loss of heat from the top layer of the polar ocean when sea ice retreats. Repeated heat loss results in a denser top layer and a destabilized water column, which triggers convection. The convective state pulls the system out of its preferred mode of circulation, setting up relaxation oscillations. The period of oscillations in this case is linked to the geometry of the ocean basin, if solar forcing is assumed to remain constant. If appropriate glacial freshwater forcing is applied to the model, a pattern of oscillation is produced that bears remarkable similarity to the observed fluctuations in North Atlantic climate between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present.; Comparison of NGRIP δ 18-O (proxy for near surface air temperature) between 50,000 and 30,000 years before present, showing Bond cycles (left) with the model output when forced with appropriate glacial freshwater forcing (right).

  4. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; hide

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  5. The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Tropospheric Distributions of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

    2015-12-01

    The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the tropospheric distributions of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been quantified. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis, a combined meteorology and composition dataset for the period 2003-2012 (Innes et al., 2013), is used to investigate the composition of the troposphere and lower stratosphere in relation to the location of the storm track as well as other meteorological parameters over the North Atlantic associated with the different NAO phases. Cyclone tracks in the MACC Reanalysis compare well to the cyclone tracks in the widely-used ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the same 10-year period (cyclone tracking performed using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999)), as both are based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). A seasonal analysis is performed whereby the MACC reanalysis meteorological fields, O3 and CO mixing ratios are weighted by the monthly NAO index values. The location of the main storm track, which tilts towards high latitudes (toward the Arctic) during positive NAO phases to a more zonal location in the mid-latitudes (toward Europe) during negative NAO phases, impacts the location of both horizontal and vertical transport across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic. During positive NAO seasons, the persistence of cyclones over the North Atlantic coupled with a stronger Azores High promotes strong horizontal transport across the North Atlantic throughout the troposphere. In all seasons, significantly more intense cyclones occur at higher latitudes (north of ~50°C) during the positive phase of the NAO and in the southern mid-latitudes during the negative NAO phase. This impacts the location of stratospheric intrusions within the descending dry airstream behind the associated cold front of the extratropical cyclone and the venting of low-level pollution up into the free troposphere within

  6. High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

    2017-11-01

    Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to

  7. Proceedings of the INAC 2005: International nuclear atlantic conference. Nuclear energy reducing global warming; 14. Brazilian national meeting on reactor physics and thermal hydraulics; 7. Brazilian national meeting on nuclear applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    Following the success of INAC 2002 which was inaugurated in Rio de Janeiro, INAC 2005 has been held with the 14th Meeting on Reactor Physics and Thermal Hydraulics (XIV ENFIR) and the 7th Meeting on Nuclear Applications (VII ENAN). A key goal of these joint meetings is to bring together scientists to exchange the latest research and development (R and D) information in nuclear science and technology. In the INAC 2005 technical program, plenary sessions, such as round table discussions and keynote lectures, has held to present to the general public the recent advances of peaceful nuclear energy usage, reducing the global warming. Besides, INAC 2005 has offered a poster technical session on Management Systems for Nuclear Organizations. The XIV ENFIR has covered all aspects of interdisciplinary R and D related to nuclear reactors, and the VII ENAN has offered a forum for discussion on nuclear applications in industry, geology, agriculture, medicine, biology and environmental sciences. Both ENFIR and ENAN have also organized oral and poster technical sessions

  8. Unexpected Impacts of Global warming on Extreme Warm Spells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Compo, G. P.; McColl, C.; Penland, C.

    2017-12-01

    It is generally presumed that the likelihood of extreme warm spells around the globe has increased, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. However, we find that this is generally not true in three very different types of global observational datasets and uncoupled atmospheric model simulations of the 1959 to 2012 period with prescribed observed global SSTs, sea ice, and radiative forcing changes. While extreme warm spells indeed became more common in many regions, in many other regions their likelihood remained almost the same or even decreased from the first half to the second half of this period. Such regions of unexpected changes covered nearly 40 percent of the globe in both winter and summer. The basic reason for this was a decrease of temperature variability in such regions that offset or even negated the effect of the mean temperature shift on extreme warm spell probabilities. The possibility of such an impact on extreme value probabilities was highlighted in a recent paper by Sardeshmukh, Compo, and Penland (Journal of Climate 2015). The consistency of the changes in extreme warm spell probabilities among the different observational datasets and model simulations examined suggests that they are robust regional aspects of global warming associated with atmospheric circulation changes. This highlights the need for climate models to represent not just the mean regional temperature signals but also the changes in subseasonal temperature variability associated with global warming. However, current climate models (both CMIP3 and CMIP5) generally underestimate the magnitude of the changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated temperature variability. A likely major cause of this is their continuing underestimation of the magnitude of the spatial variation of tropical SST trends. By generating an overly spatially bland tropical SST warming in response to changes in radiative forcing, the models spuriously mute tropically

  9. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castebrunet, H.; Eckert, N.; Giraud, G.; Durand, Y.; Morin, S.

    2014-01-01

    Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960-1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity-snow conditions-meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general -20-30% decrease and interannual variability is forecasted, relatively strong

  10. The role of Atlantic-Arctic exchange in North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankcombe, L.M.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2011-01-01

    It has recently been suggested that multidecadal variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperature occurs with two dominant periods. In this paper we investigate the origin of these two time scales in a 500 year control run of the GFDL CM2.1 model. We focus on the exchange between the Atlantic

  11. Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

  12. Glacial climate sensitivity to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: results from the IPSL model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kageyama

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Paleorecords from distant locations on the globe show rapid and large amplitude climate variations during the last glacial period. Here we study the global climatic response to different states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC as a potential explanation for these climate variations and their possible connections. We analyse three glacial simulations obtained with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model and characterised by different AMOC strengths (18, 15 and 2 Sv resulting from successive ~0.1 Sv freshwater perturbations in the North Atlantic. These AMOC states suggest the existence of a freshwater threshold for which the AMOC collapses. A weak (18 to 15 Sv AMOC decrease results in a North Atlantic and European cooling. This cooling is not homogeneous, with even a slight warming over the Norwegian Sea. Convection in this area is active in both experiments, but surprisingly stronger in the 15 Sv simulation, which appears to be related to interactions with the atmospheric circulation and sea-ice cover. Far from the North Atlantic, the climatic response is not significant. The climate differences for an AMOC collapse (15 to 2 Sv are much larger and of global extent. The timing of the climate response to this AMOC collapse suggests teleconnection mechanisms. Our analyses focus on the North Atlantic and surrounding regions, the tropical Atlantic and the Indian monsoon region. The North Atlantic cooling associated with the AMOC collapse induces a cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomaly centred over this region, which modulates the eastward advection of cold air over the Eurasian continent. This can explain why the cooling is not as strong over western Europe as over the North Atlantic. In the Tropics, the southward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone appears to be strongest over the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific and results from an adjustment of the atmospheric and oceanic heat transports. Finally, the

  13. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  14. Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorndal, Karen A.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Krueger, Barry H.; Horrocks, Julia A.; Santos, Armando J.B.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A.G.; Nava, Mabel; Willis, Sue; Godley, Brendan J.; Gore, Shannon; Hawkes, Lucy A.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A.B.; Blumenthal, Janice; Moncada, Felix; Nodarse, Gonzalo; Medina, Yosvani; Dunbar, Stephen G.; Wood, Lawrence D.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Burns Perez, Virginia R.; Coleman, Robin A.; Strindberg, Samantha; Guzmán-H, Vicente; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Lundgren, Ian; Boulon, Ralf H.; Connett, Stephen; Outerbridge, Mark E.; Bolten, Alan B.

    2016-01-01

    Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs. Main

  15. Ocean array alters view of Atlantic conveyor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kornei, Katherine

    2018-02-01

    Oceanographers have put a stethoscope on the coursing circulatory system of the Atlantic Ocean, and they have found a skittish pulse that's surprisingly strong in the waters east of Greenland—discoveries that should improve climate models. The powerful currents known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are an engine in Earth's climate. The AMOC's shallower limbs—which include the Gulf Stream—move warm water from the tropics northward, warming Western Europe. In the north, the waters cool and sink, forming deeper limbs that transport the cold water back south—and sequester anthropogenic carbon in the process. Last week, at the American Geophysical Union's Ocean Sciences meeting, scientists presented the first data from an array of instruments moored in the subpolar North Atlantic, a $35 million, seven-nation project known as the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP). Since 2004, researchers have gathered data from another array, at 26°N, stretching from Florida to Africa. But OSNAP is the first to monitor the circulation farther north, where a critical aspect of the overturning occurs. The observations reveal unexpected eddies and strong variability in the AMOC currents. They also show that the currents east of Greenland contribute the most to the total AMOC flow. Climate models, on the other hand, have emphasized the currents west of Greenland in the Labrador Sea.

  16. North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Medhaug

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC. The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s and the following colder period (1960s–1980s. This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions.

  17. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  18. Northeast Atlantic blue whiting

    OpenAIRE

    Heino, Mikko

    2010-01-01

    Heino, M. 2010. Northeast Atlantic blue whiting. In Life cycle spatial patterns of small pelagic fish in the Northeast Atlantic, pp. 59-64. Ed by P. Petitgas. ICES Cooperative Research Report 306. ICES, Copenhagen.

  19. Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ólafsdóttir, Guðbjörg Ásta; Westfall, Kristen M; Edvardsson, Ragnar; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2014-02-22

    Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500-1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400-1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change.

  20. Marine ecosystems in alteration under global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prestrud, Paal

    2004-01-01

    It is commonly thought among fishermen, researchers and in the fishing industries that the administration and harvesting of the fish resources is more important for the stock of fish than are changes in the climate. However, many scientific investigations now link changes in temperature with changes in the spreading, survival and beginning of life processes. There is solid evidence that there are important changes in progress in the North Atlantic marine ecosystem caused by global warming. If the heating of the water masses continues, it will probably have a large impact on the ocean's productivity and consequently for the fishing industry

  1. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  2. A modelling study of the influence of anomalous wind forcing over the Barents Sea on the Atlantic water flow to the Arctic Ocean in the period 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciniak, Jakub; Schlichtholz, Pawel; Maslowski, Wieslaw

    2016-04-01

    Arctic climate system is influenced by oceanic heat transport with the Atlantic water (AW) streaming towards the Arctic Ocean in two branches, through the deep Fram Strait and the shallow Barents Sea. In Fram Strait, the AW submerges below the Polar surface water and then flows cyclonically along the margin of the Arctic Ocean as a subsurface water mass in the Arctic Slope Current. In contrast to the Fram Strait branch, which is the major source of heat for the Arctic Ocean, most of the heat influx to the Barents Sea through the Barents Sea opening (BSO) is passed to the atmosphere. Only cold remnants of AW outflow to the Arctic Ocean through the northeastern gate of the Barents Sea. Some AW entering the Barents Sea recirculates westward, contributing to an outflow from the Barents Sea through the BSO along the shelf slope south of Bear Island, in the Bear Island Slope Current. Even though the two-branched AW flow toward the Arctic Ocean has been known for more than a century, little is known about co-variability of heat fluxes in the two branches, its mechanisms and climatic implications. Recent studies indicate that the Bear Island Slope Current may play a role in this co-variability. Here, co-variability of the flow through the BSO and Fram Strait is investigated using a pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean hindcast model run for the period 1979-2004 and forced with daily atmospheric data from the ECMWF. Significant wintertime co-variability between the volume transport in the Bear Island and Arctic slope currents and its link to wind forcing over the Barents Sea is confirmed. It is found that the volume transports in these currents are, however, not correlated in the annual mean and that the wintertime co-variability of these currents has no immediate effect on either the net heat flux through the BSO or the net heat flux divergence in the Barents Sea. It is shown that the main climatic effect of wind forcing over the northern Barents Sea shelf is to induce temperature

  3. Extreme conditions over Europe and North America: role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom

    2016-04-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is the result and possibly the source of marked modulations of the climate over many areas of the globe. For instance, the relatively warm and dry climate of North America throughout the 30-yr interval of 1931-60, during which the Dust Bowl and the 1950's drought occurred, has been linked to the concomitant warm phase of the AMV. During this period relative warm and wet conditions prevailed over Europe. After 1960, the Atlantic began to cool, and for almost three decades the North American climate turned wetter and cooler whereas Europe experienced cooler and dryer conditions. However, the shortness of the historical observations compared to the AMV period suggested by longer proxy (~60-80yr) does not allow to firmly conclude on the causal effect of the AMV. We use a model approach to isolate the causal role of the AMV on the occurrence of extreme events over Europe and North America. We present experiments based on two GFDL global climate models, a low resolution version, CM2.1 and a higher resolution model for the atmospheric component, FLOR. In both model experiments sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic sector are restored to the observed AMV pattern, while the other basins are left fully coupled. In order to explore and robustly isolate the AMV impacts on extreme events, we use large ensemble simulations (100 members for CM2.1 and 50 for FLOR) that we run for 20 years. We find that a positive phase of the AMV increases the frequency of occurrence of drought over North America and of extremely cold/warm conditions over Northern/Central Europe during winter/summer. Interestingly, we find that the AMV impacts on these extreme conditions are modulated by the Pacific response to the AMV itself. Members that develop a weak Pacific response show more extreme events over Europe whereas those that develop a strong Pacific response show more extreme events over North America.

  4. Uniform climate development between the subtropical and subpolar Northeast Atlantic across marine isotope stage 11

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Helmke

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Proxy records from a core site off Northwest Africa were generated and compared with data from the subpolar Northeast Atlantic to unravel some main climatic features of interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS 11 (423–362 ka. The records point to an almost 25 kyr lasting full interglacial period during stage 11 that was preceded by a considerably long glacial-interglacial transition (Termination V. Off NW Africa, a strong reduction of terrestrially derived iron input is noted after 420 ka suggesting a pronounced increase in continental humidity and vegetation cover over Northwest Africa. In analogy to the Holocene climate of the region, this early wet phase of MIS 11 was likely associated with enhanced influence of the West African monsoon system on the Saharan-Sahel region which led to both a reduction in trade wind intensity off NW Africa and the formation of sapropel S11 in the Mediterranean Sea. A detailed comparison with data from the subpolar North Atlantic indicates a remarkable coherent timing for the main environmental changes in both regions giving evidence for strong interglacial climate connection between the low and high latitude North Atlantic. Although our records of MIS 11 compare well with the Holocene in terms of some major climate characteristics there are distinct differences in the temporal evolution of each peak warm interval. This suggests that care should be taken when using MIS 11 as analogue to forecast future interglacial conditions.

  5. State of mid-atlantic region forests in 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth W. Stolte; Barbara L. Conkling; Stephanie Fulton; M. Patricia Bradley

    2012-01-01

    Wet and warm climate, mountainous topography, and deep rich soils produced one of the most magnificent and diverse temperate forests in the world. In 1650 the Mid-Atlantic forests covered 95 percent of the region, but were greatly reduced in 1900 by extensive tree harvesting, and conversion to farms and pastures. Settlement of forests also led to severe wildfires, soil...

  6. Assessing the role of North Atlantic freshwater forcing in millennial scale climate variability: a tropical Atlantic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dahl, Kristina A [Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, MA (United States); Broccoli, Anthony J [Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Stouffer, Ronald J [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2005-03-01

    This study analyzes a three-member ensemble of experiments, in which 0.1 Sv of freshwater was applied to the North Atlantic for 100 years in order to address the potential for large freshwater inputs in the North Atlantic to drive abrupt climate change. The model used is the GFDL R30 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. We focus in particular on the effects of this forcing on the tropical Atlantic region, which has been studied extensively by paleoclimatologists. In response to the freshwater forcing, North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is reduced to roughly 40% by the end of the 100 year freshwater pulse. Consequently, the North Atlantic region cools by up to 8 C. The extreme cooling of the North Atlantic increases the pole-to-equator temperature gradient and requires more heat be provided to the high latitude Atlantic from the tropical Atlantic. To accommodate the increased heat requirement, the ITCZ shifts southward to allow for greater heat transport across the equator. Accompanying this southward ITCZ shift, the Northeast trade winds strengthen and precipitation patterns throughout the tropical Atlantic are altered. Specifically, precipitation in Northeast Brazil increases, and precipitation in Africa decreases slightly. In addition, we find that surface air temperatures warm over the tropical Atlantic and over Africa, but cool over northern South America. Sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic warm slightly with larger warm anomalies developing in the thermocline. These responses are robust for each member of the ensemble, and have now been identified by a number of freshwater forcing studies using coupled OAGCMs. The model responses to freshwater forcing are generally smaller in magnitude, but have the same direction, as paleoclimate data from the Younger Dryas suggest. In certain cases, however, the model responses and the paleoclimate data directly contradict one another. Discrepancies between the model simulations

  7. The Recent Atlantic Cold Anomaly: Causes, Consequences, and Related Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Josey, Simon A.; Hirschi, Joel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Duchez, Aurélie; Grist, Jeremy P.; Marsh, Robert

    2018-01-01

    Cold ocean temperature anomalies have been observed in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic on interannual to centennial timescales. Most notably, a large region of persistently low surface temperatures accompanied by a sharp reduction in ocean heat content was evident in the subpolar gyre from the winter of 2013-2014 to 2016, and the presence of this feature at a time of pervasive warming elsewhere has stimulated considerable debate. Here, we review the role of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in generating this cold anomaly and place it in a longer-term context. We also discuss the potential impacts of surface temperature anomalies for the atmosphere, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and European heat waves; contrast the behavior of the Atlantic with the extreme warm surface event that occurred in the North Pacific over a similar timescale; and consider the possibility that these events represent a response to a change in atmospheric planetary wave forcing.

  8. Mechanisms of meridional transport processes in the tropical Atlantic; Mechanismen meridionaler Transportprozesse im tropischen Atlantik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kroeger, J.

    2001-07-01

    Meridional transport processes of water masses and tracers in the subtropical and tropical Atlantic are investigated using a regional eddy resolving model of the wind driven and thermohaline circulation. Analytical emphasis is on float simulations in the model which, complementary to Eulerian means, represent the Lagrangian view and give further insight into the spreading and pathways of characteristic water masses in this area. In the tropics and subtropics shallow 3-dimensional circulation cells are superimposed on the northward warm water transfer within the deep reaching thermohaline overturning cell (MOC) as part of the global ''Conveyor Belt''. Under present-day climate conditions the model shows that the equatorial thermocline is exclusively ventilated by subsurface flow within the tropical-subtropical cell (STC) of the South Atlantic. Only with a prescribed ''Conveyor-off''-Mode the STC of the North Atlantic contributes to this ventilation process with equal amounts. Throughout the year the interhemispheric transport of surface and central water masses of South Atlantic origin into the Caribbean Sea is dominated by zonal detours to the east as a consequence of the interplay of several retroflection events occuring in the North Atlantic. The eulerian mean flow field in the deep layer postulates the interhemispheric mass transport into the South Atlantic to be confined entirely to the western boundary, whereas Lagrangian means indicate intermittent eastward excursions along the equator, related to seasonally alternating zonal currents due to long Rossby waves. It was suggested that the observed characteristic eastward maximum of tracer concentrations along the equator is a consequence of rectifying effects of single or interacting equatorial waves. The model does not validate this hypothesis. The response to transport anomalies of subpolar origin and long periodicity is subject to different time-scales in both

  9. Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

    2008-11-01

    Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends

  10. Decadal change of the south Atlantic ocean Angola-Benguela frontal zone since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.; Sun, Xiaoming

    2018-01-01

    High-resolution simulations with a regional atmospheric model coupled to an intermediate-level mixed layer ocean model along with multiple atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses are analyzed to understand how and why the Angola-Benguela frontal Zone (ABFZ) has changed since 1980. A southward shift of 0.05°-0.55° latitude decade-1 in the annual mean ABFZ position accompanied by an intensification of + 0.05 to + 0.13 K/100-km decade-1 has occurred as ocean mixed layer temperatures have warmed (cooled) equatorward (poleward) of the front over the 1980-2014 period. These changes are captured in a 35-year model integration. The oceanic warming north of the ABFZ is associated with a weakening of vertical entrainment, reduced cooling associated with vertical diffusion, and a deepening of the mixed layer along the Angola coast. These changes coincide with a steady weakening of the onshore atmospheric flow as the zonal pressure gradient between the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the Congo Basin weakens. Oceanic cooling poleward of the ABFZ is primarily due to enhanced advection of cooler water from the south and east, increased cooling by vertical diffusion, and shoaling of the mixed layer depth. In the atmosphere, these changes are related to an intensification and poleward shift of the South Atlantic sub-tropical anticyclone as surface winds, hence the westward mixed layer ocean currents, intensify in the Benguela upwelling region along the Namibian coast. With a few caveats, these findings demonstrate that air/sea interactions play a prominent role in influencing the observed decadal variability of the ABFZ over the southeastern Atlantic since 1980.

  11. The NAO Influence on the Early to Mid-Holocene North Atlantic Coastal Upwelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, A.; Cachão, M.; Sousa, P.; Trigo, R. M.; Freitas, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal upwelling regions yield some of the oceanic most productive ecosystems, being crucial for the worldwide social and economic development. Most upwelling systems, emerging cold nutrient-rich deep waters, are located in the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and are driven by meridional wind fields parallel to the coastal shore. These winds are associated with the subsiding branch of the large-scale Anticyclonic high pressure systems that dominate the subtropical ocean basins, and therefore can be displaced or intensified within the context of past and future climate changes. However, the role of the current global warming influencing the coastal upwelling is, as yet, unclear. Therefore it is essential to derive a long-term perspective, beyond the era of instrumental measurements, to detect similar warm periods in the past that have triggered changes in the upwelling patterns. In this work, the upwelling dynamics in the Iberian North Atlantic margin during the early and mid-Holocene is reconstructed, using calcareous nannofossils from a decadally resolved estuarine sediment core located in southwestern Portugal. Results suggest that the coastal dynamics reflects changes in winds direction likely related to shifts in the NAO-like conditions. Furthermore, the reconstructed centennial-scale variations in the upwelling are synchronous with changes in solar irradiance, a major external forcing factor of the climate system that is known to exert influence in atmospheric circulation patterns. In addition, these proxy-based data interpretations are in agreement with wind field and solar irradiance simulation modelling for the mid-Holocene. Therefore, the conclusion that the solar activity via the NAO modulation controlled the North Atlantic upwelling of western Iberia during the early and mid-Holocene at decadal to centennial timescales can be derived. The financial support for attending this meeting was possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019

  12. Warm Mix Asphalt

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-17

    State of Alaska State of Alaska - Warm Mix Project Warm Mix Project: Location - Petersburg, Alaska which is Petersburg, Alaska which is located in the heart of Southeast Alaska located in the heart of Southeast Alaska's Inside Passage at the tip of M...

  13. Evolution of Interhemispheric Sea-Surface Temperature Contrast in the Tropical Atlantic During Termination I

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.

    2001-12-01

    Meteorological and oceanographic studies show that interannual and decadal variability in tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) strongly influences the climates over northeast Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the Central American and Caribbean regions. In this context, it is worthwhile to reconstruct spatial temperature patterns for the longer-term tropical Atlantic SST history. In this study, a high-resolution alkenone-derived SST record from the subtropical eastern South Atlantic (core GeoB 1023-5) is compared with one from the tropical western North Atlantic (core M35003-4). This comparison reveals synchronous SST variations between both near equatorial Atlantic regions during the Heinrich Event 1 (H1) (18-15.5 cal kyr B.P.), but dipole-like SST variations during the Younger Dryas (YD) (13-11.5 cal kyr B.P.). To assess the relationship of SST variations between both regions, we calculated SST differences between cores GeoB 1023-5 and M35003-4, and compared it with the coccolithophorid Florisphaera profunda abundance record from the equatorial eastern Atlantic (core RC24-08) as an indicator of variations in intensity of south-easterly trade winds [McIntyre and Molfino, 1996]. This comparison suggests that synchronous warming in both regions during the H1 can be attributed to a reduced northward heat transport from the warm equatorial Atlantic to the cold high-latitude North Atlantic linked to the slowdown of thermohaline circulation overturning during cold events under full glacial conditions. However, dipole-like SST variations during the YD is probably more associated with strengthened south-easterly trade winds, which led to a strong upwelling-related cooling in the eastern South Atlantic region and concurrently enhanced advection of warm subtropical South Atlantic waters to the tropical western Atlantic during that time. Accordingly, a coupled oceanic-atmospheric process created a warm pool in the tropical western Atlantic and thus a dipole

  14. Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

    2016-10-01

    How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

  15. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 ( 3.3 Ma) in the southern hemisphere: constraining the climatic drivers of a short-term glaciation event during the Pliocene warm Period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vleeschouwer, D.; Auer, G.; Bogus, K.; Groeneveld, J.; Henderiks, J.; Jatiningrum, R. S.; Christensen, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Global climate was characterized by intriguing climate variability during the Late Pliocene (3.6 to 2.59 Ma): a brief (<100 kyr) but intense glaciation (MIS M2) interrupted the relatively warm climate state around 3.3 Ma. Until today, different hypotheses exist to explain why this glaciation event was so intense, and why the global climate system returned to warm Pliocene conditions relatively quickly. One of these proposed mechanisms is a reduced equator-to-pole heat transfer, in response to a tectonically reduced Indonesian Throughflow (ITF; De Schepper et al., 2014; Karas et al., 2011a, b). However, the scarcity of orbital-scale continuous climate archives in the outflow of the Indonesian Seaway hampers testing this hypothesis. To assess the supposed relationship between mid-Pliocene glaciations and latitudinal heat transport through the Indonesian Throughflow, we constructed a 3-kyr resolution planktonic δ18OG.sacculiferrecord for the 3.9 - 2.7 Ma interval from Site U1463 (18°59'S, 117°37'E; Northwestern Australian Shelf; IODP Expedition 356 "Indonesian Throughflow"). The U1463 oxygen isotope record concurs exceptionally well with the sea surface temperature (SST) record from Site 806 (0°19'N, 159°22'E) in the West Pacific Warm Pool (Wara et al., 2005), even during MIS M2. Hence, Site U1463 suggests an uninterrupted ITF signal during Pliocene glaciations. Surprisingly though, the U1463 δ18OG.sacculifer record exhibits a 0.5‰ offset with the nearby Site 763 record (20°35'S, 112°12'E) around MIS M2. This implies that Site 763, which lies a bit further offshore than U1463, fits better with Indian Ocean SST records (e.g. Site 214; Karas et al., 2009) across MIS M2. In conclusion, the U1463 data reveal that heat-transport through the Indonesian Throughflow did not shut down completely during MIS M2. However, its intensity decreased during MIS M2, causing Site 763 to temporarily reflect an Indian Ocean, rather than an ITF signal. References De Schepper, S

  16. Experimental Warming Decreases the Average Size and Nucleic Acid Content of Marine Bacterial Communities

    KAUST Repository

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara M.; Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Alonso-Sá ez, Laura; Moran, Xose Anxelu G.

    2016-01-01

    Organism size reduction with increasing temperature has been suggested as a universal response to global warming. Since genome size is usually correlated to cell size, reduction of genome size in unicells could be a parallel outcome of warming at ecological and evolutionary time scales. In this study, the short-term response of cell size and nucleic acid content of coastal marine prokaryotic communities to temperature was studied over a full annual cycle at a NE Atlantic temperate site. We used flow cytometry and experimental warming incubations, spanning a 6°C range, to analyze the hypothesized reduction with temperature in the size of the widespread flow cytometric bacterial groups of high and low nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA bacteria, respectively). Our results showed decreases in size in response to experimental warming, which were more marked in 0.8 μm pre-filtered treatment rather than in the whole community treatment, thus excluding the role of protistan grazers in our findings. Interestingly, a significant effect of temperature on reducing the average nucleic acid content (NAC) of prokaryotic cells in the communities was also observed. Cell size and nucleic acid decrease with temperature were correlated, showing a common mean decrease of 0.4% per °C. The usually larger HNA bacteria consistently showed a greater reduction in cell and NAC compared with their LNA counterparts, especially during the spring phytoplankton bloom period associated to maximum bacterial growth rates in response to nutrient availability. Our results show that the already smallest planktonic microbes, yet with key roles in global biogeochemical cycling, are likely undergoing important structural shrinkage in response to rising temperatures.

  17. Experimental Warming Decreases the Average Size and Nucleic Acid Content of Marine Bacterial Communities

    KAUST Repository

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara M.

    2016-05-23

    Organism size reduction with increasing temperature has been suggested as a universal response to global warming. Since genome size is usually correlated to cell size, reduction of genome size in unicells could be a parallel outcome of warming at ecological and evolutionary time scales. In this study, the short-term response of cell size and nucleic acid content of coastal marine prokaryotic communities to temperature was studied over a full annual cycle at a NE Atlantic temperate site. We used flow cytometry and experimental warming incubations, spanning a 6°C range, to analyze the hypothesized reduction with temperature in the size of the widespread flow cytometric bacterial groups of high and low nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA bacteria, respectively). Our results showed decreases in size in response to experimental warming, which were more marked in 0.8 μm pre-filtered treatment rather than in the whole community treatment, thus excluding the role of protistan grazers in our findings. Interestingly, a significant effect of temperature on reducing the average nucleic acid content (NAC) of prokaryotic cells in the communities was also observed. Cell size and nucleic acid decrease with temperature were correlated, showing a common mean decrease of 0.4% per °C. The usually larger HNA bacteria consistently showed a greater reduction in cell and NAC compared with their LNA counterparts, especially during the spring phytoplankton bloom period associated to maximum bacterial growth rates in response to nutrient availability. Our results show that the already smallest planktonic microbes, yet with key roles in global biogeochemical cycling, are likely undergoing important structural shrinkage in response to rising temperatures.

  18. Differential response of continental stock complexes of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedland, Kevin D.; Shank, Burton V.; Todd, Christopher D.; McGinnity, Philip; Nye, Janet A.

    2014-05-01

    Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in the North Atlantic are managed as a set of population complexes distributed in North America and Europe. In recent years, these complexes have experienced reduced marine survival and many populations within the complexes are at risk, especially those at the southern ends of the species amphi-Atlantic range. Atlantic salmon is an anadromous fish dividing its life history between residence in freshwater and the marine environment. The freshwater portion of the life history includes spawning and the rearing of juveniles where in-river production has tended to be relatively stable, whereas the first year at sea, termed the post-smolt year, is characterized by more variable rates of mortality. Although their habitats are widely separated geographically along the North Atlantic seaboards, strong recruitment coherence exists between North American and European stock complexes. This recruitment coherence is correlated with ocean temperature variation associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) appears to be relatively unimportant as a driver of salmon abundance. The mechanism determining the link between AMO-related thermal variation and abundance appears to differ fundamentally for the two continental stock groupings. Whereas ocean climate variability during the first springtime months of juvenile salmon migration to sea appears to be important to the survival of North American stocks, summer climate variation appears to be central to adult recruitment variation for European stocks. This contrast in seasonal effects appears to be related to the varying roles of predation pressure and size-related mortality on the continental stock complexes. The anticipated warming due to global climate change will impose thermal conditions on salmon populations outside historical context and challenge the ability of many populations to persist.

  19. Reconstructing the history of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation using high-resolution Mg/Ca paleothermometry from a Cariaco Basin core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtzel, J. B.; Black, D. E.; Rahman, S.; Thunell, R.; Peterson, L. C.; Tappa, E.

    2010-12-01

    Instrumental and proxy-reconstructions show the existence of an approximately 70-year periodicity in Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO is correlated with circum-tropical Atlantic climate phenomena such as Sahel and Nordeste rainfall, and Atlantic hurricane patterns. Though it has been suggested that the AMO is controlled by thermohaline circulation, much debate exists as to whether the SST fluctuations are a result of anthropogenic forcing or a natural climate mode, or even if the AMO is a true oscillation at all. Our ability to address this issue has been limited by instrumental SST records that rarely extend back more than 50-100 years and proxy reconstructions that are mostly terrestrial-based. Additionally, the modern instrumental variability likely contains an anthropogenic component that is not easily distinguished from the natural background of the system. From a marine sediment core taken in the Cariaco Basin, we have developed a high-resolution SST reconstruction for the past ca. 1500 years using Mg/Ca paleothermometry on seasonally-representative foraminifera, with the most recent data calibrated to the instrumental record. Previous studies have shown Cariaco Basin Mg/Ca-SSTs to be well-correlated to the Caribbean Sea and much of the western tropical Atlantic, which allows us to create a record that can be used to determine pre-anthropogenic rates and ranges of SST variability and observe how they change over time. Averaging the seasonal temperatures derived from the two foraminiferal species over the instrumental period yields a strong correlation to the AMO index from A. D. 1880 through 1970 (r = 0.44, p<0.0001). Wavelet analysis of the proxy average annual SST data indicates that modern AMO variability is not a consistent feature through time, and may be a function of warm-period climate.

  20. Enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific due to Atlantic capacitor effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lei; Yu, Jin-Yi; Paek, Houk

    2017-03-20

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the variability in the Pacific subtropical highs (PSHs) have major impacts on social and ecological systems. Here we present an Atlantic capacitor effect mechanism to suggest that the Atlantic is a key pacemaker of the biennial variability in the Pacific including that in ENSO and the PSHs during recent decades. The 'charging' (that is, ENSO imprinting the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) via an atmospheric bridge mechanism) and 'discharging' (that is, the NTA SST triggering the following ENSO via a subtropical teleconnection mechanism) processes alternate, generating the biennial rhythmic changes in the Pacific. Since the early 1990s, a warmer Atlantic due to the positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and global warming trend has provided more favourable background state for the Atlantic capacitor effect, giving rise to enhanced biennial variability in the Pacific that may increase the occurrence frequency of severe natural hazard events.

  1. Greenhouse gases and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    From previous articles we have learned about the complexities of our environment, its atmosphere and its climate system. we have also learned that climate change and, therefore global warm and cool periods are naturally occurring phenomena. Moreover, all scientific evidence suggests that global warming, are likely to occur again naturally in the future. However, we have not yet considered the role of the rates of climate change in affecting the biosphere. It appears that how quickly the climate changes may be more important than the change itself. In light of this concern, let us now consider the possibility that, is due to human activity. We may over the next century experience global warming at rates and magnitudes unparalleled in recent geologic history. The following questions are answered; What can we learn from past climates? What do we know about global climates over the past 100 years? What causes temperature change? What are the greenhouse gases? How much have concentration of greenhouse gases increased in recent years? Why are increases in concentrations of greenhouse of concern? What is the e nhanced greenhouse effect ? How can human activity impact the global climate? What are some reasons for increased concentrations of greenhouse gases? What are fossil fuel and how do they transform into greenhouse gases? Who are the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases? Why are canada per capita emissions of greenhouse gases relatively high? (Author)

  2. Global Warming: A Myth?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 7. Global Warming: A Myth? - Credibility of Climate Scenarios Predicted by Systems Simulations. Deepanjan Majumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 7 July 2001 pp 13-21 ...

  3. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  4. Nitrous oxide and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, C.

    1994-01-01

    The climatic impact of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions is calculated annually for the period 1900-2100, using a globally averaged computer model. Emissions of N 2 O have been increasing up top an estimated 12.7 Tg N/year in 1990 by human activities and global warming. If the current trends continue, emissions are estimated to be 25.7 Tg N/year by 2100, with fossil-fuel use and human food production as major contributors. The resulting equilibrium temperature increase (0.37 degree C) exceeds the forcing derived from climate goals that may be considered environmentally desirable. Limiting equilibrium warming to 0.1 degree C per decade would require anthropogenic-induced and warming-induced N 2 O emissions to be reduced by 80% relative to current trends and to be stabilized from 2050, so that 10.7 Tg N/year is emitted by 2100. To stabilize the current concentration or climate forcing of N 2 , substantially larger cuts are needed. However, even in an optimistic scenario, emissions keep increasing up to 14.4. Tg N/year by 2100. A major reason is the close connection between N 2 O emissions and human food production. Synthetic fertilizer use, land-use change, and production of manure increase almost inevitably as the human population grows. Thus if global warming is to be limited to 0.1 degree C per decade it may be necessary to set emission reductions for other greenhouse gases relatively high to compensate for growth in climatic forcing by N 2 O

  5. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  6. Media Pembelajaran Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Tham, Fikri Jufri; Liliana, Liliana; Purba, Kristo Radion

    2016-01-01

    Computer based learning media is one of the media has an important role in learning. Learning media will be attractive when packaged through interactive media , such as interactive media created in paper manufacture " instructional media global warming" . The advantage gained is that it can increase knowledge, generally educate people to be more concerned about the environment , and also can be a means of entertainment. This application is focused to learn about global warming and packaged in...

  7. Refrigeration and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    Some aspects of global warming in general, and the implications for refrigerants and refrigerator efficiency in particular, are briefly considered in a question and answer format. The concepts of Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Total Equivalent Warming Impact (TEWI) are explained. GWP is an index which allows a simple comparison to be make between the warming effects of different gases on a kg to kg basis relative to carbon. The GWP depends both on the lifetime of a substance in the atmosphere and its infra-red absorption capacity. The overall warming effect of operating a refrigeration system for its entire life is measured by its TEWI. Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) which have been widely used as refrigerants are powerful greenhouse gases with high GWPs. Because of the bank of CFCs in refrigerating systems, their levels in the atmosphere are still increasing and it will be some time before refrigerant changes will be effective in reducing the warming effects of refrigerant releases. Hydrocarbons, hydroflourocarbons and ammonia all have a part to play as substitute refrigerants. Refrigerator efficiency is very important in terms of reducing CO 2 emissions. (UK)

  8. Interannual rainfall variability in the Amazon basin and sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronchail, Josyane; Cochonneau, Gérard; Molinier, Michel; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Chaves, Adriana Goretti De Miranda; Guimarães, Valdemar; de Oliveira, Eurides

    2002-11-01

    Rainfall variability in the Amazon basin is studied in relation to sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial Pacific and the northern and southern tropical Atlantic during the 1977-99 period, using the HiBAm original rainfall data set and complementary cluster and composite analyses.The northeastern part of the basin, north of 5 °S and east of 60 °W, is significantly related with tropical SSTs: a rainier wet season is observed when the equatorial Pacific and the northern (southern) tropical Atlantic are anomalously cold (warm). A shorter and drier wet season is observed during El Niño events and negative rainfall anomalies are also significantly associated with a warm northern Atlantic in the austral autumn and a cold southern Atlantic in the spring. The northeastern Amazon rainfall anomalies are closely related with El Niño-southern oscillation during the whole year, whereas the relationships with the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are mainly observed during the autumn. A time-space continuity is observed between El Niño-related rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon, those in the northern Amazon and south-eastern Amazon, and those in northern South America and in the Nordeste of Brazil.A reinforcement of certain rainfall anomalies is observed when specific oceanic events combine. For instance, when El Niño and cold SSTs in the southern Atlantic are associated, very strong negative anomalies are observed in the whole northern Amazon basin. Nonetheless, the comparison of the cluster and the composite analyses results shows that the rainfall anomalies in the northeastern Amazon are not always associated with tropical SST anomalies.In the southern and western Amazon, significant tropical SST-related rainfall anomalies are very few and spatially variable. The precipitation origins differ from those of the northeastern Amazon: land temperature variability, extratropical perturbations and moisture advection are important rainfall factors, as well

  9. Global warming on trial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broeker, W.S.

    1992-01-01

    Jim Hansen, a climatologist at NASA's Goddard Space Institute, is convinced that the earth's temperature is rising and places the blame on the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Unconvinced, John Sununu, former White House chief of staff, doubts that the warming will be great enough to produce serious threat and fears that measures to reduce the emissions would throw a wrench into the gears that drive the Unites States' troubled economy. During his three years at the White House, Sununu's view prevailed, and although his role in the debate has diminished, others continue to cast doubt on the reality of global warming. A new lobbying group called the Climate Council has been created to do just this. Burning fossil fuels is not the only problem; a fifth of emissions of carbon dioxide now come from clearing and burning forests. Scientists are also tracking a host of other greenhouse gases that emanate from a variety of human activities; the warming effect of methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide combined equals that of carbon dioxide. Although the current warming from these gases may be difficult to detect against the background noise of natural climate variation, most climatologists are certain that as the gases continue to accumulate, increases in the earth's temperature will become evident even to skeptics. If the reality of global warming were put on trial, each side would have trouble making its case. Jim Hansen's side could not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have warmed the planet. But neither could John Sununu's side prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the warming expected from greenhouse gases has not occurred. To see why each side would have difficulty proving its case, this article reviews the arguments that might be presented in such a hearing

  10. Long range global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth's steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth's temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic

  11. The INTIMATE event stratigraphy of the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olander Rasmussen, Sune; Svensson, Anders

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) group has previously recommended an Event Stratigraphy approach for the synchronisation of records of the Last Termination using the Greenland ice core records as the regional stratotypes. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. In addition to presenting the updated event stratigraphy, we make a series of recommendations on how to refer to these periods in a way that promotes unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, providing a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is a part of a newly published paper in an INTIMATE special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews: Rasmussen et al., 'A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event

  12. Decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and southeast Australia surface air temperature in austral summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Zhao, Sen; Mao, Jiangyu; Dong, Di; Li, Yanjie; Feng, Juan

    2018-04-01

    Austral summer (December-February) surface air temperature over southeast Australia (SEA) is found to be remotely influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic at decadal time scales. In austral summer, warm SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic induce concurrent above-normal surface air temperature over SEA. This decadal-scale teleconnection occurs through the eastward propagating South Atlantic-Australia (SAA) wave train triggered by SST anomalies in the southwest South Atlantic. The excitation of the SAA wave train is verified by forcing experiments based on both linear barotropic and baroclinic models, propagation pathway and spatial scale of the observed SAA wave train are further explained by the Rossby wave ray tracing analysis in non-uniform basic flow. The SAA wave train forced by southwest South Atlantic warming is characterized by an anomalous anticyclone off the eastern coast of the Australia. Temperature diagnostic analyses based on the thermodynamic equation suggest anomalous northerly flows on western flank of this anticyclone can induce low-level warm advection anomaly over SEA, which thus lead to the warming of surface air temperature there. Finally, SST-forced atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments also demonstrate that SST forcing in the South Atlantic is associated with the SAA teleconnection wave train in austral summer, this wave train then modulate surface air temperature over SEA on decadal timescales. Hence, observations combined with numerical simulations consistently demonstrate the decadal-scale teleconnection between South Atlantic SST and summertime surface air temperature over SEA.

  13. Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

    2018-02-01

    The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

  14. Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

  15. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  16. How does ocean ventilation change under global warming?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the upper ocean takes up much of the heat added to the earth system by anthropogenic global warming, one would expect that global warming would lead to an increase in stratification and a decrease in the ventilation of the ocean interior. However, multiple simulations in global coupled climate models using an ideal age tracer which is set to zero in the mixed layer and ages at 1 yr/yr outside this layer show that the intermediate depths in the low latitudes, Northwest Atlantic, and parts of the Arctic Ocean become younger under global warming. This paper reconciles these apparently contradictory trends, showing that the decreases result from changes in the relative contributions of old deep waters and younger surface waters. Implications for the tropical oxygen minimum zones, which play a critical role in global biogeochemical cycling are considered in detail.

  17. G-warm inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herrera, Ramón, E-mail: ramon.herrera@pucv.cl [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Avenida Brasil 2950, Casilla 4059, Valparaíso (Chile)

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G (φ, X )= g (φ) X . As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition R <1+3 gH φ-dot , and the strong regime in which 1< R +3 gH φ-dot . Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T > H , the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r = r ( n {sub s} ) from Planck data.

  18. G-warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2017-05-01

    A warm inflationary universe in the context of Galileon model or G-model is studied. Under a general formalism we study the inflationary dynamics and the cosmological perturbations considering a coupling of the form G(phi,X)=g(phi) X. As a concrete example, we consider an exponential potential together with the cases in which the dissipation and Galilean coefficients are constants. Also, we study the weak regime given by the condition RR+3gHdot phi. Additionally, we obtain constraints on the parameters during the evolution of G-warm inflation, assuming the condition for warm inflation in which the temperature T>H, the conditions or the weak and strong regimes, together with the consistency relation r=r(ns) from Planck data.

  19. The global warming problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this chapter, a discussion is presented of the global warming problem and activities contributing to the formation of acid rain, urban smog and to the depletion of the ozone layer. Globally, about two-thirds of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions arise from fossil-fuel burning; the rest arise primarily from deforestation. Chlorofluorocarbons are the second largest contributor to global warming, accounting for about 20% of the total. The third largest contributor is methane, followed by ozone and nitrous oxide. A study of current activities in the US that contribute to global warming shows the following: electric power plants account for about 33% of carbon dioxide emissions; motor vehicles, planes and ships (31%); industrial plants (24%); commercial and residential buildings (11%)

  20. Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations during the last two millennia in Morocco, inferred from two high resolution δ18O speleothem records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ait Brahim, Yassine; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Khodri, Myriam; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Cruz, Francisco W.; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cheng, Hai

    2017-04-01

    Climate projections predict substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. Herein, we present two high resolution and well dated speleothems oxygen isotope (δ18O) records sampled from Chaara and Ifoulki caves (located in Northeastern and Southwestern Morocco respectively) to investigate hydroclimate variations during the last 2000 years. Our results are supported by a monitoring network of δ18O in precipitation from 17 stations in Morocco. The new paleoclimate records are discussed in the light of existing continental and marine paleoclimate proxies in Morocco to identify significant correlations at various lead times with the main reconstructed oceanic and atmospheric variability modes and possible climate teleconnections that have potentially influenced the climate during the last two millennia in Morocco. The results reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords. Evidence of dry conditions exist during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period and the Climate Warm Period (CWP) and humid conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Statistical analyses suggest that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last two millennia. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably

  1. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...

  2. Atlantic Salmon Telemetry Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Annual telemetry data are collected as part of specific projects (assessments within watersheds) or as opportunistic efforts to characterize Atlantic salmon smolt...

  3. GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was the first major international experiment of the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP). It was conducted over...

  4. Warm pre-stressing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedner, G.

    1983-01-01

    Literature survey and critical evaluation of the phenomenon of warm pre-stressing (WPS) is presented. It is found that the cause of it is not clear and a calculated control is missing. The effect of irradiation is unknown, and the influence of WPS on the behaviour of reactor vessels is discussed. (G.B.)

  5. Being Warm-Hearted

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李函; 任汉鼎

    2017-01-01

    Good morning,ladies and gentlemen.It’s my honor to address[向……致辞] you.My English name is Isabella.I’m a high school student of 17.I have some good personality traits[特点],including being warm-hearted.So here comes my topic:Being

  6. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  7. The global warming scare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunavala, P.D.

    1992-01-01

    It is argued that the present propaganda about the global warming with its disastrous consequences is a scare spread by some First World countries, especially the United States, to prevent the rapid industrialization of developing third world countries. (author). 6 refs., 1 tab

  8. Paralyzed warming world

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ač, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 81-86 ISSN 1876-8156 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : global warming * climate Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour http://ojs.ubvu.vu.nl/alf/article/view/134/250

  9. Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

  10. Ecological characterisation and infection of Anophelines (Diptera: Culicidae) of the Atlantic Forest in the southeast of Brazil over a 10 year period: has the behaviour of the autochthonous malaria vector changed?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buery, Julyana Cerqueira; Rezende, Helder Ricas; Natal, Licia; Silva, Leonardo Santana da; Menezes, Regiane Maria Tironi de; Fux, Blima; Malafronte, Rosely Dos Santos; Falqueto, Aloisio; Cerutti Junior, Crispim

    2018-02-01

    BACKGROUND In southeastern Brazil, autochthonous cases of malaria can be found near Atlantic Forest fragments. Because the transmission cycle has not been completely clarified, the behaviour of the possible vectors in those regions must be observed. A study concerning the entomological aspects and natural infection of anophelines (Diptera: Culicidae) captured in the municipalities of the mountainous region of Espírito Santo state was performed in 2004 and 2005. Similarly, between 2014 and 2015, 12 monthly collections were performed at the same area of the study mentioned above. METHODS Center for Disease Control (CDC) light traps with CO2 were set in open areas, at the edge and inside of the forest (canopy and ground), whereas Shannon traps were set on the edge. FINDINGS A total of 1,414 anophelines were collected from 13 species. Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii Dyar and Knab remained the most frequently captured species in the CDC traps set in the forest canopy, as well as being the vector with the highest prevalence of Plasmodium vivax/simium infection, according to molecular polymerase chain reaction techniques. CONCLUSIONS P. vivax/simium was found only in abdomens of the mosquitoes of the subgenus Nyssorhynchus, weakening the hypothesis that this subgenus also plays a role in malaria transmission in this specific region.

  11. Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, André; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna

    2017-11-01

    We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period

  12. Scottish Sea Lochs: High Resolution Archives of North Atlantic Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norgaard-Pedersen, N.; Austin, W. E.; Cage, A. G.; Shimmield, T. M.; Gillibrand, P. A.

    2002-12-01

    The sea lochs (fjords) of NW Scotland bridge the land-ocean interface in a region of Europe which is particularly well situated to monitor changes in westerly air flow. Inter-annual atmospheric circulation changes at this latitude are largely governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in turn influencing both westerlies and precipitation. Comparing two extreme recent NAO years, circulation modelling results from Loch Sunart, NW Scotland, reveal a clear response to freshwater runoff and wind forcing in both magnitude and rate of deep-water renewal events. Scottish fjords, because of the relatively small impact which salinity has on d18Owater (0.18 % per salinity unit), potentially provide NW Europe's most useful study sites in coastal palaeoclimate research, particularly where palaeotemperature is the primary record of interest. New data from a high-resolution record (7 yr sample resolution), spanning the last two millennia, from the deepest part of the main basin of Loch Sunart illustrate significant multi-decadal to centennial scale variability in the sedimentary and stable isotope record of epibenthic foraminifera Cibicides lobatulus. The long-term pattern in benthic d18O appears to reflect bottom water temperature differences of 1-2§C, resolving climatic periods such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Since the core site is connected with shelf waters (i.e. no shallow sill) it seems likely that this paleotemperature reflects changing shelf water, not the exchange process as a function of long-term runoff/wind forcing. Grain size data and XRF data point to catchment-wide responses (weathering and erosion) which appear to show the largest variability during the last millennium, driven either by rainfall and temperature and/or land-use. Pb-isotope data, constraining the modern and industrial period, suggest accelerated sedimentation rates over this interval. On-going work attempts to calibrate proxy data with instrumental historical data.

  13. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2018-03-01

    Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of

  14. Reconstructing warm inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, Ramón

    2018-03-01

    The reconstruction of a warm inflationary universe model from the scalar spectral index n_S(N) and the tensor to scalar ratio r( N) as a function of the number of e-folds N is studied. Under a general formalism we find the effective potential and the dissipative coefficient in terms of the cosmological parameters n_S and r considering the weak and strong dissipative stages under the slow roll approximation. As a specific example, we study the attractors for the index n_S given by nS-1∝ N^{-1} and for the ratio r∝ N^{-2}, in order to reconstruct the model of warm inflation. Here, expressions for the effective potential V(φ ) and the dissipation coefficient Γ (φ ) are obtained.

  15. Thinking About Global Warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, J.

    2006-01-01

    Attitudes toward global warming are influenced by various heuristics, which may distort policy away from what is optimal for the well-being of people. These possible distortions, or biases, include: a focus on harms that we cause, as opposed to those that we can remedy more easily; a feeling that those who cause a problem should fix it; a desire to undo a problem rather than compensate for its presence; parochial concern with one's own group (nation); and neglect of risks that are not available. Although most of these biases tend to make us attend relatively too much to global warming, other biases, such as wishful thinking, cause us to attend too little. I discuss these possible effects and illustrate some of them with an experiment conducted on the World Wide Web

  16. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2012-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflaton with radiation, while at the same time, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflaton potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this Letter we show that if the inflaton and other light fields are pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons then the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal corrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfil the contrary requirements of an inflaton potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflaton field with other light fields. We construct a warm inflation model which gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index where the symmetry breaking is at the GUT scale.

  17. Slowing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flavin, C.

    1990-01-01

    According to the authors, global warming promises to be one of the central environmental issues of the nineties. After a decade of scientific concern but popular neglect, the eighties ended with a growing political as well as scientific consensus that the world can no longer afford to procrastinate about this issue. This paper reports on coping with global warming which, according to the author, will force societies to move rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have dominated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong commitment on the part of both individual consumers and governments. In terms of the earth's carbon balance, the unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent include a new commitment to greater energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, a carbon tax on fossil fuels, a reversal of deforestation in tropical countries, and the rapid elimination of CFCs

  18. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  19. Antarctic Bottom Water temperature changes in the western South Atlantic from 1989 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Gregory C.; McTaggart, Kristene E.; Wanninkhof, Rik

    2014-12-01

    Warming of abyssal waters in recent decades contributes to global heat uptake and sea level rise. Repeat oceanographic section data in the western South Atlantic taken mostly in 1989 (1995 across the Scotia Sea), 2005, and 2014 are used to quantify warming in abyssal waters that spread northward through the region from their Antarctic origins in the Weddell Sea. While much of the Scotia Sea warmed between 1995 and 2005, only the southernmost portion, on the north side of the Weddell Gyre, continued to warm between 2005 and 2014. The abyssal Argentine Basin also warmed between 1989 and 2005, but again only the southernmost portion continued to warm between 2005 and 2014, suggesting a slowdown in the inflow of the coldest, densest Antarctic Bottom Waters into the western South Atlantic between 1989 and 2014. In contrast, the abyssal waters of the Brazil Basin warmed both between 1989 and 2005 and between 2005 and 2014, at a rate of about 2 m°C yr-1. This warming is also assessed in terms of the rates of change of heights above the bottom for deep isotherms in each deep basin studied. These results, together with findings from previous studies, suggest the deep warming signal observed in the Weddell Sea after the mid-1970s Weddell Polynya was followed by abyssal warming in the Argentine Basin from the late 1970s through about 2005, then warming in the deep Vema Channel from about 1992 through at least 2010, and warming in the Brazil Basin from 1989 to 2014.

  20. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

    OpenAIRE

    Dr. Basanti Jain

    2017-01-01

    The abnormal increase in the concentration of the greenhouse gases is resulting in higher temperatures. We call this effect is global warming. The average temperature around the world has increased about 1'c over 140 years, 75% of this has risen just over the past 30 years. The solar radiation, as it reaches the earth, produces "greenhouse effect" in the atmosphere. The thick atmospheric layers over the earth behaves as a glass surface, as it permits short wave radiations from coming in, but ...

  1. Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L.; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A. K.; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R.; Stocchi, Paolo; D'Andrea, William J.; Raymo, Maureen E.

    2017-11-01

    As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ˜128–116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past “superstorms,” they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

  2. Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Alessio; Casella, Elisa; Harris, Daniel L; Lorscheid, Thomas; Nandasena, Napayalage A K; Dyer, Blake; Sandstrom, Michael R; Stocchi, Paolo; D'Andrea, William J; Raymo, Maureen E

    2017-11-14

    As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that during the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, ∼128-116 ka) tropical and extratropical North Atlantic cyclones may have been more intense than at present, and may have produced waves larger than those observed historically. Such strong swells are inferred to have created a number of geologic features that can be observed today along the coastlines of Bermuda and the Bahamas. In this paper, we investigate the most iconic among these features: massive boulders atop a cliff in North Eleuthera, Bahamas. We combine geologic field surveys, wave models, and boulder transport equations to test the hypothesis that such boulders must have been emplaced by storms of greater-than-historical intensity. By contrast, our results suggest that with the higher relative sea level (RSL) estimated for the Bahamas during MIS 5e, boulders of this size could have been transported by waves generated by storms of historical intensity. Thus, while the megaboulders of Eleuthera cannot be used as geologic proof for past "superstorms," they do show that with rising sea levels, cliffs and coastal barriers will be subject to significantly greater erosional energy, even without changes in storm intensity.

  3. Warm natural inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, Hiranmaya; Mohanty, Subhendra; Nautiyal, Akhilesh

    2013-01-01

    In warm inflation models there is the requirement of generating large dissipative couplings of the inflation with radiation, while at the same Âătime, not de-stabilising the flatness of the inflation potential due to radiative corrections. One way to achieve this without fine tuning unrelated couplings is by supersymmetry. In this talk we will discuss warm inflation with Pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone Bosons (PNGB). In this case inflation and other light fields are PNGB. So, the radiative corrections to the potential are suppressed and the thermal Âăcorrections are small as long as the temperature is below the symmetry breaking scale. In such models it is possible to fulfill the contrary requirements of an inflation potential which is stable under radiative corrections and the generation of a large dissipative coupling of the inflation field with other light fields. This warm inflation model with PNGB gives the observed CMB-anisotropy amplitude and spectral index having the symmetry breaking scale at the GUT scale. (author)

  4. Effect of global warming in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suphat Vongvisessomjai

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The earth absorbs much radiation from the sun to warm the atmosphere, the land, and the oceans. This energy is reradiatedback into space. In the past, the thermal budget of the earth is more or less balanced, with radiation from the sun onpar with thermal radiation from the earth. With increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, some of the thermal radiationis absorbed by these gases resulting in an increase of global mean surface temperature, melting of polar ices and thuscontributing to a rising of sea level. However, sea-level changes depend upon four main processes: 1 Glacio-eustasy, 2Emergence/subsidence of land, 3 Man-made activities, and 4 Ocean-atmosphere effects. The assessment report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990, which was based on past data in Europe and the USA, including theNorth Atlantic Ocean, published a mean temperature of 14°C and an actual increase of 1°C in the last century, plus an increaseof CO2 from 370 ppmv to 550 ppmv, and a three-fold temperature increase of 3°C in this century. All these changes are projectinga sea level rise (SLR of 31-110 cm per century on global scale, which was in fact applicable to the North Atlantic. Theassessment report of the IPCC Working Group I (1996 has realized that differential SLR occurs due to different geographicalconditions. It identified ten regions on earth and compared the actual climate change to what it was postulated to be, andcame up with SLR of 15-95 cm per century. The assessment report of the IPCC Working Group II (2001 employed improveddata obtained from tide gauges and satellite images as well as mathematical model results with the most convincing evidencein the North Atlantic, and it concluded an SLR of 9-88 cm per century. But it had, however, noted a lack of data in the Pacificand Indian Ocean. The assessment report of the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM, 2007 that included six differentarctic and antarctic climate science

  5. More, smaller bacteria in response to ocean's warming?

    KAUST Repository

    Moran, Xose Anxelu G.

    2015-06-10

    Heterotrophic bacteria play a major role in organic matter cycling in the ocean. Although the high abundances and relatively fast growth rates of coastal surface bacterioplankton make them suitable sentinels of global change, past analyses have largely overlooked this functional group. Here, time series analysis of a decade of monthly observations in temperate Atlantic coastal waters revealed strong seasonal patterns in the abundance, size and biomass of the ubiquitous flow-cytometric groups of low (LNA) and high nucleic acid (HNA) content bacteria. Over this relatively short period, we also found that bacterioplankton cells were significantly smaller, a trend that is consistent with the hypothesized temperature-driven decrease in body size. Although decadal cell shrinking was observed for both groups, it was only LNA cells that were strongly coherent, with ecological theories linking temperature, abundance and individual size on both the seasonal and interannual scale. We explain this finding because, relative to their HNA counterparts, marine LNA bacteria are less diverse, dominated by members of the SAR11 clade. Temperature manipulation experiments in 2012 confirmed a direct effect of warming on bacterial size. Concurrent with rising temperatures in spring, significant decadal trends of increasing standing stocks (3% per year) accompanied by decreasing mean cell size (-1% per year) suggest a major shift in community structure, with a larger contribution of LNA bacteria to total biomass. The increasing prevalence of these typically oligotrophic taxa may severely impact marine foodwebs and carbon fluxes by an overall decrease in the efficiency of the biological pump. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  6. Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Renssen, H.; Mairesse, A.; Goosse, H.J.M.; Mathiot, P.; Heiri, O.; Roche, D.M.V.A.P.; Nisancioglu, K.H.; Valdes, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt, and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling

  7. Atlantic menhaden adult tagging study

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Atlantic menhaden are a schooling forage fish species, which are subject to a large commercial purse seine fishery. Atlantic menhaden are harvested for reduction...

  8. Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

    2018-03-01

    As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

  9. Ecosystem maturation follows the warming of the Arctic fjords

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Marcin Węsławski

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Two fjords in West Spitsbergen (Hornsund 77°N and Kongsfjorden 79°N differ with regard to their exposure towards increasingly warm Atlantic water inflow. Hornsund remains in many respects cooler than Kongsfjorden (on average 2°C SST in summer and is less influenced by warmer and more saline Atlantic waters. Reported changes in the physical environment (temperature rise, freshwater inflow, salinity drop, turbidity, fast-ice reduction, coastal change are discussed in the context of biological observations in the pelagic and benthic realms with special reference to krill (Euphausiacea. We conclude that well-documented changes in the physical environment have had little effect on the fjord biota and that both organisms and their ecological functions in the fjords are well adapted to the scale of ongoing change. The observed changes fit the definition of ecosystem maturation, with greater diversity, a more complex food web and dispersed energy flow at the warmer site.

  10. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  11. Pathways of warm water to the Northeast Greenland outlet glaciers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Janin; Timmermann, Ralph; Kanzow, Torsten; Arndt, Jan Erik; Mayer, Christoph; Schauer, Ursula

    2015-04-01

    The ocean plays an important role in modulating the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet by delivering heat to the marine-terminating outlet glaciers surrounding the Greenland coast. The warming and accumulation of Atlantic Water in the subpolar North Atlantic has been suggested to be a potential driver of the glaciers' retreat over the last decades. The shelf regions thus play a critical role for the transport of Atlantic Water towards the glaciers, but also for the transfer of freshwater towards the deep ocean. A key region for the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. This large ice stream drains the second-largest basin of the Greenland Ice Sheet and feeds three outlet glaciers. The largest one is Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79°N-Glacier) featuring an 80 km long floating ice tongue. Both the ocean circulation on the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland and the circulation in the cavity below the ice tongue are weakly constrained so far. In order to study the relevant processes of glacier-ocean interaction we combine observations and model work. Here we focus on historic and recent hydrographic observations and on the complex bathymetry in the Northeast Greenland shelf region, which is thought to steer the flux of warm Atlantic water onto the continental shelf and into the sub-ice cavity beneath the 79°N-Glacier. We present a new global topography data set, RTopo-2, which includes the most recent surveys on the Northeast Greenland continental shelf and provides a detailed bathymetry for all around Greenland. In addition, RTopo-2 contains ice and bedrock surface topographies for Greenland and Antarctica. Based on the updated ocean bathymetry and a variety of hydrographic observations we show the water mass distribution on the continental shelf off Northeast Greenland. These maps enable us to discuss possible supply pathways of warm modified Atlantic waters on the continental shelf and thus potential ways of heat

  12. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

    2014-01-23

    In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

  13. Nearshore marine benthic invertebrates moving north along the U.S. Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerous species have shifted their ranges north in response to global warming. We examined 21 years (1990-2010) of marine benthic invertebrate data from the National Coastal Assessment’s monitoring of nearshore waters along the US Atlantic coast. Data came from three bioge...

  14. State of mid-atlantic region forests in 2000-Summary Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth W. Stolte

    2012-01-01

    Wet and warm climate, mountainous topography, and deep rich soils produced one of the most magnificent and diverse temperate forests in the world. In 1650 the Mid-Atlantic forests covered 95 percent of the region, but were greatly reduced in 1900 by extensive tree harvesting, and conversion to farms and pastures. Settlement of forests also led to severe wildfires, soil...

  15. Global warning, global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benarde, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This book provides insights into the formidable array of issues which, in a warmer world, could impinge upon every facet of readers lives. It examines climatic change and long-term implications of global warming for the ecosystem. Topics include the ozone layer and how it works; the greenhouse effect; the dangers of imbalance and its effects on human and animal life; disruptions to the basic ecology of the planet; and the real scientific evidence for and against aberrant climatic shifts. The author also examines workable social and political programs and changes that must be instituted to avoid ecological disaster

  16. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  17. Variations of Sea Surface Temperature, Wind Stress, and Rainfall over the Tropical Atlantic and South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, Paulo; Srukla, J.

    1996-10-01

    Empirical orthogonal functions (E0Fs) and composite analyses are used to investigate the development of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns over the tropical Atlantic. The evolution of large-scale rainfall anomaly patterns over the equatorial Atlantic and South America are also investigated. 71e EOF analyses revealed that a pattern of anomalous SST and wind stress asymmetric relative to the equator is the dominant mode of interannual and longer variability over the tropical Atlantic. The most important findings of this study are as follows.Atmospheric circulation anomalies precede the development of basinwide anomalous SST patterns over the tropical Atlantic. Anomalous SST originate off the African coast simultaneously with atmospheric circulation anomalies and expand westward afterward. The time lag between wind stress relaxation (strengthening) and maximum SST warming (cooling) is about two months.Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns over northern tropical Atlantic are phase locked to the seasonal cycle. Composite fields of SLP and wind stress over northern tropical Atlantic can be distinguished from random only within a few months preceding the March-May (MAM) season. Observational evidence is presented to show that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific influences atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies over northern tropical Atlantic through atmospheric teleconnection patterns into higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The well-known droughts over northeastern Brazil (Nordeste) are a local manifestation of a much larger-scale rainfall anomaly pattern encompassing the whole equatorial Atlantic and Amazon region. Negative rainfall anomalies to the south of the equator during MAM, which is the rainy season for the Nordeste region, are related to an early withdrawal of the intertropical convergence zone toward the warm SST anomalies over the northern tropical Atlantic. Also, it is shown that precipitation anomalies

  18. Book ReviewL Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Nadia Astriani

    2015-01-01

    Global Warming is part of Greenhaven’s Contemporary Issues Companion series published by, Thomson Gale on 2005. Each volume of the anthologyseries focuses on a topic of current interest, presenting informative and thought-provoking selection written from wide-variety viewpoints. It is an ideal launching point for research on a particular topic. Each anthology in the series is composed of readings taken from an extensive gamut of resources, including periodical, newspapers, books, governmentdo...

  19. Causes of strong ocean heating during glacial periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    During the last deglaciation period, the strongest climate changes occurred across the North Atlantic regions. Analyses of borehole temperatures from the Greenland ice sheet have yielded air temperature change estimates of 25°C over the deglaciation period (Dahl-Jensen et al. 1998). Such huge temperature changes cannot currently be explained in the frames of modern knowledge about climate. We propose that glacial-interglacial cycles are connected with gradual warming of ocean interior waters over the course of glaciations and quick transport of accumulated heat from ocean to the atmosphere during the deglaciation periods. Modern day ocean circulation is dominated by thermal convection with cold waters subsiding in the Northern Atlantic and filling up the ocean interior with cold and heavy water. However during the glaciation thermal circulation stopped and ocean circulation was driven by 'haline pumps' -Red and Mediterranean seas connected with ocean with only narrow but deep straights acts as evaporative basins, separating ocean water into fresh water which returns to the ocean surface (precipitation) and warm but salty, and therefore heavy, water which flows down to the ocean floor. This haline pump is stratifying the ocean, allowing warmer water locate under the colder water and thus stopping thermal convection in the ocean. Additional ocean interior warming is driven by geothermal heat flux and decomposition of organic rain. To test the hypothesis we present simple ocean box model that describes thermohaline circulation in the World Ocean. The first box is the Red and Mediterranean sea, the second is united high-latitude seas, the third is the ocean surface, and the fourth the ocean interior. The volume of these water masses and straight cross-sections are taken to be close to real values. We have accepted that the exchange of water between boxes is proportional to the difference in water density in these boxes, Sun energy inputs to the ocean and sea surface

  20. Global Warming: A Reduced Threat?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1992-10-01

    One popular and apocalyptic vision of the world influenced by increasing concentrations of infrared-absorbing trace gases is that of ecological disaster brought about by rapidly rising temperatures, sea level, and evaporation rates. This vision developed from a suite of climate models that have since considerably changed in both their dynamics and their estimates of prospective warming. Observed temperatures indicate that much more warming should already have taken place than predicted by earlier models in the Northern Hemisphere, and that night, rather than day, readings in that hemisphere show a relative warming. A high-latitude polar-night warming or a general night warming could be either benign or beneficial. A large number of plant species show both increased growth and greater water-use efficiency under enhanced carbon dioxide.An extensive body of evidence now indicates that anthropo-generated sulfate emissions are mitigating some of the warming, and that increased cloudiness as a result of these emissions will further enhance night, rather than day, warming. The sulfate emissions, though, are not sufficient to explain all of the night warming. However, the sensitivity of climate to anthropogenerated aerosols, and the general lack of previously predicted warming, could drastically alter the debate on global warming in favor of less expensive policies.

  1. Decadal summer drought frequency in China: the increasing influence of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Chengcheng; Yu, Jin-Yi; Chen, Ge

    2014-01-01

    Decadal variations in summer drought events during 1956–2005 are examined over Eastern China to identify their leading variability modes and their linkages to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and global warming. The PDO influence is found to dominate China drought frequency from the 1960s to early 1990s via modulating the Western Pacific Subtropical High and the Mongolian High. The four-pole drought pattern produced by the PDO diminished after the early 1990s, being replaced by a dipolar drought pattern that is produced by the AMO via a Eurasian wave train emanating from North Atlantic to China. The increasing influence of the AMO on China drought since the early 1990s is further shown to be a consequence of global warming. This study indicates that the early 1990s is a time when the Atlantic began to exert a stronger influence on climate over China and even larger part of Asia. (letter)

  2. Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

    2018-03-01

    Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

  3. Regional seesaw between the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas during the last glacial abrupt climate events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wary

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations constitute one of the most enigmatic features of the last glacial cycle. Their cold atmospheric phases have been commonly associated with cold sea-surface temperatures and expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Here, based on dinocyst analyses from the 48–30 ka interval of four sediment cores from the northern Northeast Atlantic and southern Norwegian Sea, we provide direct and quantitative evidence of a regional paradoxical seesaw pattern: cold Greenland and North Atlantic phases coincide with warmer sea-surface conditions and shorter seasonal sea-ice cover durations in the Norwegian Sea as compared to warm phases. Combined with additional palaeorecords and multi-model hosing simulations, our results suggest that during cold Greenland phases, reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and cold North Atlantic sea-surface conditions were accompanied by the subsurface propagation of warm Atlantic waters that re-emerged in the Nordic Seas and provided moisture towards Greenland summit.

  4. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  5. Response of winter North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    Climate variability in Europe in winter is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. These are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and mid latitudes. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it is relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex feedbacks acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains open. The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past and future decades and to analyze the contributions of the different external forcings (natural and anthropogenic) versus the internal variability. On this purpose, we use the Detection and Attribution (D&A) simulations performed with the coupled model CNRM-CM5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, a tracking scheme based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is conducted. We show that the coupled model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the tracks pathways comparing to several atmospheric reanalysis products. In the recent historical period (1950-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. Even if the role of internal variability is important in the last decades (the

  6. The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean

    2016-11-01

    Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

  7. Phytoplankton dynamics and periodicity in two cascading warm ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In addition to annual patterns, changes in chlorophyll content implied progressive long-term changes in trophic status, especially in Albert Falls, with the emergence of various 'new' taxa (and/or higher peak densities of others). Consideration of phytoplankton dynamics in terms of functional groups offers certain advantages ...

  8. The effects of different warm stratification periods on the seed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PRECIOUS

    2009-09-11

    Sep 11, 2009 ... the climate chamber for 10, 11 and 12 weeks, seeds were transferred in plastic bags including pumice medium and left at 5°C. After complete dormancy, seeds were transferred to climate room at 22°C for germination. Statistical analysis. The data were analyzed using two-way (factorial) ANOVA. Signifi-.

  9. Dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpechko, A.; Manzini, E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models often simulate dynamical warming of the Arctic stratosphere as a response to global warming in association with a strengthening of the deep branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation; however until now, no satisfactory mechanism for such a response has been suggested. Here we investigate the role of stationary planetary waves in the dynamical response of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation to global warming by analysing simulations performed with atmosphere-only Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models driven by prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We focus on December-February (DJF) because this is the period when the troposphere and stratosphere are strongly coupled. When forced by increased SSTs, all the models analysed here simulate Arctic stratosphere dynamical warming, mostly due to increased upward propagation of quasi-stationary wave number 1, as diagnosed by the meridional eddy heat flux. By analysing intermodel spread in the response we show that the stratospheric warming and increased wave flux to the stratosphere correlate with the strengthening of the zonal winds in subtropics and mid-latitudes near the tropopause- a robust response to global warming. These results support previous studies of future Arctic stratosphere changes and suggest a dynamical warming of the Arctic wintertime polar vortex as the most likely response to global warming.

  10. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2018-03-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  11. The subpolar North Atlantic - Response to North Atlantic oscillation like forcing and Influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, Katja; Drange, Helge; Jungclaus, Johann

    2010-05-01

    The extent and strength of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) changed rapidly in the mid-1990s, going from large and strong in 1995 to substantially weakened in the following years. The abrupt change in the intensity of the SPG is commonly linked to the reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, changing from strong positive to negative values, in the winter 1995/96. In this study we investigate the impact of the initial SPG state on its subsequent behavior by means of an ocean general circulation model driven by NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fields. Our sensitivity integrations suggest that the weakening of the SPG cannot be explained by the change in the atmospheric forcing alone. Rather, for the time period around 1995, the SPG was about to weaken, irrespective of the actual atmospheric forcing, due to the ocean state governed by the persistently strong positive NAO during the preceding seven years (1989 to 1995). Our analysis indicates that it was this preconditioning of the ocean, in combination with the sudden drop in the NAO in 1995/96, that lead to the strong and rapid weakening of the SPG in the second half of the 1990s. In the second part, the sensitivity of the low-frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to changes in the subpolar North Atlantic is investigated using a 2000 year long control integration as well as sensitivity experiments with the MPI-M Earth System Model. Two 1000 year long sensitivity experiments will be performed, in which the low-frequency variability in the overflow transports from the Nordic Seas and in the subpolar deep water formation rates is suppressed respectively. This is achieved by nudging temperature and salinity in the GIN Sea or in the subpolar North Atlantic (up to about 1500m depth) towards a monthly climatology obtained from the last 1000 years of the control integration.

  12. Response of the Water Cycle of West Africa and Atlantic to Radiative Forcing by Saharan Dust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Yogesh C.; Walker, Gregory L.

    2010-01-01

    The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence in support of the "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summer, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feed back triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are enhanced over the West Africa/Easter Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean. region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while long wave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over Nest Africa and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the induced deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the Nest African land and the eastern Atlantic, and a warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at 0.95 or higher.

  13. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael A Magris

    Full Text Available Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST data, integrating both observed (1985-2009 and projected (2010-2099 time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  14. Mechanisms of the atmospheric response to North Atlantic multidecadal variability: a model study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Msadek, Rym [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Princeton University, GFDL/NOAA, AOS Program, Princeton, NJ (United States); Frankignoul, Claude [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Li, Laurent Z.X. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, LMD/IPSL, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2011-04-15

    The atmospheric circulation response to decadal fluctuations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the IPSL climate model is investigated using the associated sea surface temperature signature. A SST anomaly is prescribed in sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric component of the IPSL model coupled to a slab ocean. The prescribed SST anomaly in the North Atlantic is the surface signature of the MOC influence on the atmosphere detected in the coupled simulation. It follows a maximum of the MOC by a few years and resembles the model Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. It is mainly characterized by a warming of the North Atlantic south of Iceland, and a cooling of the Nordic Seas. There are substantial seasonal variations in the geopotential height response to the prescribed SST anomaly, with an East Atlantic Pattern-like response in summer and a North Atlantic oscillation-like signal in winter. In summer, the response of the atmosphere is global in scale, resembling the climatic impact detected in the coupled simulation, albeit with a weaker amplitude. The zonally asymmetric or eddy part of the response is characterized by a trough over warm SST associated with changes in the stationary waves. A diagnostic analysis with daily data emphasizes the role of transient-eddy forcing in shaping and maintaining the equilibrium response. We show that in response to an intensified MOC, the North Atlantic storm tracks are enhanced and shifted northward during summer, consistent with a strengthening of the westerlies. However the anomalous response is weak, which suggests a statistically significant but rather modest influence of the extratropical SST on the atmosphere. The winter response to the MOC-induced North Atlantic warming is an intensification of the subtropical jet and a southward shift of the Atlantic storm track activity, resulting in an equatorward shift of the polar jet. Although the SST anomaly is only prescribed in the Atlantic ocean

  15. Sneutrino warm inflation in the minimal supersymmetric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun

    2005-01-01

    The model of RH neutrino fields coupled to the MSSM is shown to yield a large parameter regime of warm inflation. In the strong dissipative regime, it is shown that inflation, driven by a single sneutrino field, occurs with all field amplitudes below the Planck scale. Analysis is also made of leptogenesis, neutrino mass generation and gravitino constraints. A new warm inflation scenario is purposed in which one scalar field drives a period of warm inflation and a second field drives a subsequent phase of reheating. Such a model is able to reduce the final temperature after inflation, thus helping to mitigate gravitino constraints

  16. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-01-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatmen...

  17. Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

  18. The Role of African Easterly Wave on Dust Transport and the Interaction Between Saharan Dust Layer and Atlantic ITCZ During Boreal Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the relationships among Saharan dust outbreak and transport, African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jet (AEJ) and associated convective activities of Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using Cloudsat-Calipso, MODIS and MERRA data. We find that a major Saharan dust outbreak is associated with the formation of a westward propagating strong cyclone around 15-25N over the western part northern Saharan. The strong cyclonic flow mobilizes and lifts the dust from the desert surface to a high elevation. As the cyclone propagate westward, it transports a thick elevated dust layer between 900 -500 hPa from the African continent to the eastern Atlantic. Cloudiness is reduced within the warm, dry dusty layer, but enhanced underneath it, possibly due to the presence of a shallow inversion layer over the marine boundary layer. The dust outbreak is linked to enhanced deep convection in the northern part of Atlantic ITCZ, abutting the southern flank of the dust layer, and a strengthening of the northward flank of the AEJ. As the dust layer spreads westward, it loses elevation and becomes increasing diffused as it reaches the central and western Atlantic. Using band pass filtered EOF analysis of MERRA winds, we find that AEWs propagating westward along two principal tracks, centered at 15-25N and 5-10N respectively. The easterly waves in the northern track are highly correlated with major dust outbreak over North Africa and associated with slower moving systems, with a quasi-periodicity of 6-9 day. On the other hand, easterly waves along the southern track are faster, with quasi-periodicity of 3-5 days. These faster easterly waves are closely tied to rainfall/cloud variations along the Atlantic ITCZ. Dust transport along the southern track by the faster waves generally leads rainfall/cloud anomalies in the same region by one or two days, suggesting the southern tracks of dust outbreak are regions of strong interaction between

  19. Sea surface temperatures from the southern Benguela region from the Pliocene and Pleistocene: tracking Agulhas Current input into the SE Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, B. F.; McClymont, E.; Felder, S.; Lloyd, J. M.; Leng, M. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Pliocene and-Pleistocene epochs provide a way to understand the effect of past climate changes on key ocean currents. Here, we show results from ODP Site1087 (31.28'S, 15.19'E, 1374m water depth) to investigate changes in ocean circulation over the period of the mid-Pliocene warm period 3.0-3.5 Ma and compare these to the time of the 100 kyr Pleistocene glacial cycles. ODP 1087 is located in the South-eastern Atlantic Ocean, outside of the Benguela upwelling region; reconstructing the temperature history of the site will therefore provide an important data set from a part of the ocean that has few orbital-scale and continuous Pliocene temperature reconstructions. ODP 1087 can be used to investigate the history of the heat and salt transfer to the Atlantic Ocean from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas Retroflection, which plays an important part in the global thermohaline circulation (Lutjeharms, 2007). Climate models and reconstructions for the most recent glacial-interglacial cycles have shown that changes to the strength of the heat transfer may cause major climatic changes and may play a role in transitions from glacial to interglacial events (Knorr & Lohmann, 2003). It is unknown how this transfer reacted to generally warmer global temperatures during the mid-Pliocene. Because the mid-Pliocene is seen as a model for future climate change it might provide a model for ocean circulations in a warmer world. Our approach is to apply several organic geochemistry proxies and foraminiferal analyses to reconstruct the history of ODP 1087. The UK37' index records differences in the unsaturated bonds in the C37 alkenones to reconstruct sea surface temperatures (Brassell et al., 1986). We present SSTs generated for the mid-Pliocene Warm period with a resolution of 4000 years. We compare this data to the time of the 100 kyr glacial cycles during the late Pleistocene. Even though ODP 1087 is located outside the Benguela upwelling system, it has lower Pliocene temperatures

  20. Structure of Warm Nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaberg, S.; Uhrenholt, H.

    2009-01-01

    We study the structure of nuclei in the energy region between the ground state and the neutron separation energy, here called warm nuclei. The onset of chaos in the nucleus as excitation energy is increased is briefly reviewed. Chaos implies fluctuations of energies and wave functions qualitatively the same for all chaotic nuclei. On the other hand, large structure effects are seen, e.g. in the level-density function at same excitation energies. A microscopic model for the level density is reviewed and we discuss effects on structure of the total level-density function, parity enhancement, and the spin distribution function. Comparisons to data are performed at the neutron separation energy for all observed nuclei, and structure of the level-density function for a few measured cases. The role of structure effects in the level-density function for fission dynamics is exemplified.

  1. Interacting warm dark matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Norman; Palma, Guillermo; Zambrano, David; Avelino, Arturo

    2013-01-01

    We explore a cosmological model composed by a dark matter fluid interacting with a dark energy fluid. The interaction term has the non-linear λρ m α ρ e β form, where ρ m and ρ e are the energy densities of the dark matter and dark energy, respectively. The parameters α and β are in principle not constrained to take any particular values, and were estimated from observations. We perform an analytical study of the evolution equations, finding the fixed points and their stability properties in order to characterize suitable physical regions in the phase space of the dark matter and dark energy densities. The constants (λ,α,β) as well as w m and w e of the EoS of dark matter and dark energy respectively, were estimated using the cosmological observations of the type Ia supernovae and the Hubble expansion rate H(z) data sets. We find that the best estimated values for the free parameters of the model correspond to a warm dark matter interacting with a phantom dark energy component, with a well goodness-of-fit to data. However, using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) we find that this model is overcame by a warm dark matter – phantom dark energy model without interaction, as well as by the ΛCDM model. We find also a large dispersion on the best estimated values of the (λ,α,β) parameters, so even if we are not able to set strong constraints on their values, given the goodness-of-fit to data of the model, we find that a large variety of theirs values are well compatible with the observational data used

  2. Role of tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans variability on ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien; Boschat, Ghyslaine

    2014-05-01

    There are strong evidences of an interaction between tropical Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Nevertheless, these interactions remain deeply controversial. While some authors claim the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans only play a passive role with respect to ENSO, others suggest a driving role for these two basins on ENSO. The mecanisms underlying these relations are not fully understood and, in the Indian Ocean, the possible role of both modes of tropical variability (the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB)) remain unclear. To better quantify and understand how the variability of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans impact ENSO variability, we performed two sensitivity experiments using the SINTEX-F2 coupled model. For each experiment, we suppressed the variability of SST and the air-sea coupling in either the tropical Indian Ocean or tropical Atlantic Ocean by applying a strong nudging of the SST to the observed SST climatology. In both experiments, the ENSO periodicity increases. In the Atlantic experiment, our understanding of this increased periodicity is drastically limited by the strongly biased mean state in this region. Conversely, in the Indian Ocean experiment, the increase of ENSO periodicity is related to the absence of the IOB following the El Niño peak, which leads to a decrease of westerly winds in the western Pacific during late winter and spring after the peak. These weaker westerlies hinders the transition to a La Niña phase and thus increase the duration and periodicity of the event.

  3. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  4. Species-specific vulnerability of Arctic copepods to oil contamination and global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    Arctic ecosystems are predicted to have more severe effects from global warming as during the last decades the temperatures have increased in this region at a rate of 2-4 times higher than the global average. In addition, oil exploitation and shipping activities in the Arctic are predicted...... to increase under global warming as the result of the retreat of sea ice, posing the risk of oil contamination. It is poorly known how cold adapted copepods in the Arctic deal with the combined effects of global warming and oil exposure. To address this, we exposed females of two copepods species Calanus...... of temperatures. Notably, exposure to high pyrene resulted in ca. 70% of mortality in C. finmarchicus, the species with North Atlantic Origin, that was two times higher than the mortality observed for C. glacialis, the true Arctic species. These results suggest that extreme temperature under global warming...

  5. Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

    2018-05-01

    Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

  6. The challenge of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bryner, G.C.

    1992-01-01

    The chapter outlines the science of global warming, the likely consequences of global warming and some of the major challenges in dealing with global climate change. Some of the major international organisations concerned with environmental issues are listed. International agreements might be used to limit emissions of greenhouse gases. 32 refs., 2 tabs

  7. Global warming and prairie wetlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poiani, K.A.; Johnson, W.C.

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the authors discuss current understanding and projections of global warming; review wetland vegetation dynamics to establish the strong relationship among climate, wetland hydrology, vegetation patterns and waterfowl habitat; discuss the potential effects of a greenhouse warming on these relationships; and illustrate the potential effects of climate change on wetland habitat by using a simulation model

  8. Warm Bodies: A Student Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schario, Tracy A.

    A participant in forensic tournament competition presents her perspective as well as overall student reaction to the function of "warm bodies," competitors who are entered in a tournament by the coach or tournament director only to meet qualifying requirements. Overall, participants in an informal survey believed that the warm body…

  9. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2009-08-15

    Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

  10. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  11. Continental outflow from the US to the upper troposphere over the North Atlantic during the NASA INTEX-NA Airborne Campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Y. Kim

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A case of continental outflow from the United States (US was examined using airborne measurements from NASA DC-8 flight 13 during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment – North America (INTEX-NA. Mixing ratios of methane (CH4 and carbon monoxide (CO at 8–11 km altitude over the North Atlantic were elevated to 1843 ppbv and 134 ppbv respectively, while those of carbon dioxide (CO2 and carbonyl sulfide (COS were reduced to 372.4 ppmv and 411 pptv respectively. In this region, urban and industrial influences were evidenced by elevated mixing ratios and good linear relationships between urban and industrial tracers compared to North Atlantic background air. Moreover, low mixing ratios and a good correlation between COS and CO2 showed a fingerprint of terrestrial uptake and minimal dilution during rapid transport over a 1–2 day time period. Analysis of synoptic conditions, backward trajectories, and photochemical aging estimates based on C3H8/C2H6 strongly suggested that elevated anthropogenic tracers in the upper troposphere of the flight region were the result of transport via convection and warm conveyor belt (WCB uplifting of boundary layer air over the southeastern US. This mechanism is supported by the similar slope values of linear correlations between long-lived (months anthropogenic tracers (e.g., C2Cl4 and CHCl3 from the flight region and the planetary boundary layer in the southeastern US. In addition, the aircraft measurements suggest that outflow from the US augmented the entire tropospheric column at mid-latitudes over the North Atlantic. Overall, the flight 13 data demonstrate a pervasive impact of US anthropogenic emissions on the troposphere over the North Atlantic.

  12. Atlantic Basin refining profitability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.J.

    1998-01-01

    A review of the profitability margins of oil refining in the Atlantic Basin was presented. Petroleum refiners face the continuous challenge of balancing supply with demand. It would appear that the profitability margins in the Atlantic Basin will increase significantly in the near future because of shrinking supply surpluses. Refinery capacity utilization has reached higher levels than ever before. The American Petroleum Institute reported that in August 1997, U.S. refineries used 99 per cent of their capacity for several weeks in a row. U.S. gasoline inventories have also declined as the industry has focused on reducing capital costs. This is further evidence that supply and demand are tightly balanced. Some of the reasons for tightening supplies were reviewed. It was predicted that U.S. gasoline demand will continue to grow in the near future. Gasoline demand has not declined as expected because new vehicles are not any more fuel efficient today than they were a decade ago. Although federally-mandated fuel efficiency standards were designed to lower gasoline consumption, they may actually have prevented consumption from falling. Atlantic margins were predicted to continue moving up because of the supply and demand evidence: high capacity utilization rates, low operating inventories, limited capacity addition resulting from lower capital spending, continued U.S. gasoline demand growth, and steady total oil demand growth. 11 figs

  13. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-16

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  14. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-01-01

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

  15. A millennium of north-east Atlantic cod juvenile growth trajectories inferred from archaeological otoliths.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guðbjörg Ásta Ólafsdóttir

    Full Text Available Archaeological excavations of historical fishing sites across the North Atlantic have recovered high quantities of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua bones. In the current study we use Atlantic cod otoliths from archaeological excavations of a historical fishing sites in north-west Iceland, dated to AD 970 -AD 1910 to examine historical growth trajectories of cod. No large scale growth variations or shifts in growth patterns were observed in the current chronologies, supporting the stability of historical Atlantic cod growth trajectories. The most significant variation in growth patterns was consistent with those that have been observed in recent times, for example, reduced early juvenile growth during periods of colder ocean temperature. The current results represent a high resolution chronological record of north-east Atlantic cod growth, greatly increasing the prior temporal range of such data, thereby providing a valuable baseline for a broad range of studies on Atlantic cod growth.

  16. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory conducts research to understand the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and processes of the...

  17. Forests and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curren, T.

    1991-04-01

    The importance of forests to Canada, both in economic and environmental terms, is indisputable. A warmer global climate may well have profound effects on the Canadian boreal forest, and at least some of the effects will not be beneficial. With the state of the current knowledge of climate processes and climate change it is not possible to predict the extent or rate of projected changes of anthropogenic origin. Given these uncertainties, the appropriate course of action for the Canadian forest sector is to develop policies and strategies which will make good sense under the current climatic regime, and which will also be appropriate for actions in a warmer climate scenario. The business as usual approach is not acceptable in the context of pollution control as it has become clear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants must be substantially reduced, both to prevent (or at least slow the rate of) possible global warming, and to reduce impacts on the biophysical environment and human health. Effective mitigative actions must be introduced on both a national and global scale. Forest management policies more effectively geared to the sustainability of forests are needed. The programs that are developed out of such policies must be cognizant of the real possibility that climate in the present boreal forest regions may change in the near future. 13 refs

  18. Variability of the Tropical Ocean Surface Temperatures at Decadal-Multidecadal Timescales. Part I: The Atlantic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Vikram M.

    1998-09-01

    Gridded time series from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas were analyzed with a variety of techniques to identify spatial structures and oscillation periods of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations at decadal timescales, and to develop physical interpretations of statistical patterns of decadal SST variations. Each time series was 110 yr (1882-1991) long. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were compared with decadal variations in a 74-yr-long (1912-85) north Nordeste Brazil rainfall time series and a 106-yr-long (1886-1991) tropical Atlantic cyclone activity index time series. The tropical Atlantic SST variations were also compared with decadal variations in the extratropical Atlantic SST.Multiyear to multidecadal variations in the cross-equatorial dipole pattern identified as a dominant empirical pattern of the tropical Atlantic SST variations in earlier and present studies are shown to be variations in the approximately north-south gradient of SST anomalies. It is also shown that there was no dynamical-thermodynamical, dipole mode of SST variations during the analysis period. There was a distinct decadal timescale (12-13 yr) of SST variations in the tropical South Atlantic, whereas no distinct decadal timescale was found in the tropical North Atlantic SST variations. Approximately 80% of the coherent decadal variance in the cross-equatorial SST gradient was `explained' by coherent decadal oscillations in the tropical South Atlantic SSTs. There were three, possibly physical, modes of decadal variations in the tropical Atlantic SSTs during the analysis period. In the more energetic mode of the North Atlantic decadal SST variations, anomalies traveled into the tropical North Atlantic from the extratropical North Atlantic along the eastern boundary of the basin. The anomalies strengthened and resided in the tropical North Atlantic for several years, then frequently traveled northward into the mid-high-latitude North Atlantic along

  19. Warming of the West Spitsbergen Current and sea ice north of Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Piechura

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This research was supported by a grant from the Fifth European Union Frame-work Programme project ASOF-N, contract EVK2-CT-200200139, the Sixth Frame-work Programme DAMOCLES, contract 018509GOCE, and grants from the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education, decisions 61/N-IPY/2007/0 and 175/IPY/2007/01.AbstractAccording to the results of recent research, besides the atmospheric circulation, it is heat transport to the Arctic Ocean (AO by ocean currents, the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC in particular, that is playing a significant role in the process of Arctic warming. Data collected by the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (IO PAS, in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas, and Fram Strait during the last 20 years reveal considerable changes in the amount of heat transported by the WSC into the Arctic Ocean. An increase in Atlantic Water (AW temperature and the intensification of heat transport were observed in 2004-06; after this period, both parameters decreased. The aim of this study was to find out whether the fluctuations in heat input by the WSC have influenced the sea-ice distribution around Svalbard. In fact they do, but oceanic heat transport should nonetheless be regarded as just one of many processes influencing sea-ice behaviour.

  20. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsev, Sergei; Aaberg, Arthur A; Crowe, Sean A; Hecky, Robert E

    2014-01-01

    Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  1. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  2. A GCM Study of Responses of the Atmospheric Water Cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan Dust Radiative Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

    2009-01-01

    The responses of the atmospheric water cycle and climate of West Africa and the Atlantic to radiative forcing of Saharan dust are studied using the NASA finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), coupled to a mixed layer ocean. We find evidence of an "elevated heat pump" (EHP) mechanism that underlines the responses of the atmospheric water cycle to dust forcing as follow. During the boreal summerr, as a result of large-scale atmospheric feedback triggered by absorbing dust aerosols, rainfall and cloudiness are ehanIed over the West Africa/Eastern Atlantic ITCZ, and suppressed over the West Atlantic and Caribbean region. Shortwave radiation absorption by dust warms the atmosphere and cools the surface, while longwave has the opposite response. The elevated dust layer warms the air over West Africa and the eastern Atlantic. As the warm air rises, it spawns a large-scale onshore flow carrying the moist air from the eastern Atlantic and the Gulf of Guinea. The onshore flow in turn enhances the deep convection over West Africa land, and the eastern Atlantic. The condensation heating associated with the ensuing deep convection drives and maintains an anomalous large-scale east-west overturning circulation with rising motion over West Africa/eastern Atlantic, and sinking motion over the Caribbean region. The response also includes a strengthening of the West African monsoon, manifested in a northward shift of the West Africa precipitation over land, increased low-level westerlies flow over West Africa at the southern edge of the dust layer, and a near surface westerly jet underneath the dust layer overr the Sahara. The dust radiative forcing also leads to significant changes in surface energy fluxes, resulting in cooling of the West African land and the eastern Atlantic, and warming in the West Atlantic and Caribbean. The EHP effect is most effective for moderate to highly absorbing dusts, and becomes minimized for reflecting dust with single scattering albedo at0

  3. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-03-09

    In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter

  4. Global warming hiatus contributed to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Wang, Yuqing

    2018-04-16

    The recent global warming hiatus (GWH) was characterized by a La Niña-like cooling in the tropical Eastern Pacific accompanied with the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming. Here we show that the recent GWH contributed significantly to the increased occurrence of intense tropical cyclones in the coastal regions along East Asia since 1998. The GWH associated sea surface temperature anomalies triggered a pair of anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulations and equatorial easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific, which favored TC genesis and intensification over the western Northwest Pacific but suppressed TC genesis and intensification over the southeastern Northwest Pacific due to increased vertical wind shear and anticyclonic circulation anomalies. Results from atmospheric general circulation model experiments demonstrate that the Pacific La Niña-like cooling dominated the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean warming in contributing to the observed GWH-related anomalous atmospheric circulation over the Northwest Pacific.

  5. Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

    This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

  6. Effect of active warm-up duration on morning short-term maximal performance during Ramadan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklouti, Hana; Chtourou, Hamdi; Aloui, Asma; Chaouachi, Anis; Souissi, Nizar

    2015-01-01

    To examine the effect of active warm-up duration on short-term maximal performance assessed during Ramadan in the morning. Twelve healthy active men performed four Wingate tests for measurement of peak power and mean power before and during Ramadan at 09:00 a.m. The tests were performed on separate days, after either a 5-min or a 15-min warm-up. The warm-up consisted in pedaling at 50% of the power output obtained at the last stage of a submaximal multistage cycling test. Oral temperature was measured at rest and after warming-up. Furthermore, ratings of perceived exertion were obtained immediately after the Wingate test. Oral temperature was higher after the 15-min warm-up than the 5-min warm-up throughout the study. Moreover, peak power and mean power were higher after the 15-min warm-up than the 5-min warm-up before Ramadan. However, during Ramadan, there was no significant difference between the two warm-up durations. In addition, ratings of perceived exertion were higher after the 15-min warm-up than the 5-min warm-up only during Ramadan. There is no need to prolong the warm-up period before short-term maximal exercise performed during Ramadan in the morning.

  7. Pimping climate change: Richard Branson, global warming, and the performance of green capitalism

    OpenAIRE

    Scott Prudham

    2009-01-01

    On 21 September 2006 UK über-entrepreneur and Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson pledged approximately £1.6 billion, the equivalent of all the profits from Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Trains for the next ten years, to fighting climate change. Since then, Branson has restated his commitment to action on global warming, including investment in technologies for sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In this paper, I critically examine and engage with Branson’s announcements as a spec...

  8. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  9. Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

    2017-09-01

    Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Phase Variability of the Recent Climate in the North Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Anisimov, Mikhail; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Romanov, Juri; Sidorova, Alexandra

    2014-05-01

    The atmospheric pressure and near-surface temperature differences between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low for the period of 1900-2012 within the spatial-temporal average-out (20º latitude, 20º longitude and 12 years) were considered. The secular term of phase states of the system under consideration was found to divide into three non-intersecting subsets. Each of that was put in consequence with one of three climatic scenarios related to the periods of 1905-1935 (relatively warm phase), 1940-1970 (colder phase) and 1980-2000 (warmer phase). A life time of such a scenario lasted about 20-35 years, and the transition from one scenario to another covered 4-6 years, i.e. it run comparatively quickly. The revealed non-overlapping sub-aggregates of the thermodynamic indices related to each particular climate scenario gave an idea to follow the circulation peculiarities and the interrelated temperature differences within the limits of the Northern Atlantic ocean-atmosphere regional system. The results of this analysis bear evidence that the most probable intermittent strengthening and weakening of Hadley and Ferrell circulations occurred there in coincided phase. The analogous character of the climate system behavior was also detected in some other regional atmospheric activity centers that can be considered as a witness on the global nature of the detected phase type of modern climate inter-decadal variability. Hence, we have the grounds to suppose that mentioned above the short-period inter-decadal excitations of the modern climate have a global nature and appears everywhere. Finally, the attention was paid to the fact that at the early XXI century the thermodynamic state of the Northern Atlantic regional climate system has shown a tendency to face towards the situation, similar to the cooler scenario of the 1940-1970. We used the heat content of upper 700m Atlantic Ocean layer data from NODC to calculate its anomalies for the periods of 1955-1970, 1980-2000 and

  11. Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Piotrowski, Piotr; Bednorz, Ewa

    2017-05-01

    This study describes warm spells in Northern Europe and determines the synoptic situations that cause their occurrence. In this article, a relatively warm day was defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeded the 95th annual percentile, and a warm spell (WS) was considered to be a sequence of at least five relatively warm days. In the analysed multiannual period and within the investigated area, 24 (Kallax) to 53 (Oslo) WSs were observed. The occurrence of WSs was mainly connected with positive anomalies of sea level pressure and a 500-hPa isobaric surface, displaying the presence of high-pressure systems. This occurrence was also accompanied by positive T850 anomalies.

  12. Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.

    2017-12-01

    Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

  13. Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

    2015-05-12

    Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

  14. Global warming: Sea ice and snow cover

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, J.E.

    1993-01-01

    In spite of differences among global climate simulations under scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 is doubled, all models indicate at least some amplification of greenouse warming at the polar regions. Several decades of recent data on air temperature, sea ice, and snow cover of the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are summarized to illustrate the general compatibility of recent variations in those parameters. Despite a data void over the Arctic Ocean, some noteworthy patterns emerge. Warming dominates in winter and spring, as projected by global climate models, with the warming strongest over subpolar land areas of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and northern Eurasia. A time-longitude summary of Arctic sea ice variations indicates that timescales of most anomalies range from several months to several years. Wintertime maxima of total sea ice extent contain no apparent secular trends. The statistical significance of trends in recent sea ice variations was evaluated by a Monte Carlo procedure, showing a statistically significant negative trend in the summer. Snow cover data over the 20-y period of record show a noticeable decrease of Arctic snow cover in the late 1980s. This is of potential climatic significance since the accompanying decrease of surface albedo leads to a rapid increase of solar heating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  15. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  16. Soil warming opens the nitrogen cycle at the alpine treeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawes, Melissa A; Schleppi, Patrick; Hättenschwiler, Stephan; Rixen, Christian; Hagedorn, Frank

    2017-01-01

    Climate warming may alter ecosystem nitrogen (N) cycling by accelerating N transformations in the soil, and changes may be especially pronounced in cold regions characterized by N-poor ecosystems. We investigated N dynamics across the plant-soil continuum during 6 years of experimental soil warming (2007-2012; +4 °C) at a Swiss high-elevation treeline site (Stillberg, Davos; 2180 m a.s.l.) featuring Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata. In the soil, we observed considerable increases in the NH4+ pool size in the first years of warming (by >50%), but this effect declined over time. In contrast, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) concentrations in soil solutions from the organic layer increased under warming, especially in later years (maximum of +45% in 2012), suggesting enhanced DON leaching from the main rooting zone. Throughout the experimental period, foliar N concentrations showed species-specific but small warming effects, whereas δ 15 N values showed a sustained increase in warmed plots that was consistent for all species analysed. The estimated total plant N pool size at the end of the study was greater (+17%) in warmed plots with Pinus but not in those containing Larix, with responses driven by trees. Irrespective of plot tree species identity, warming led to an enhanced N pool size of Vaccinium dwarf shrubs, no change in that of Empetrum hermaphroditum (dwarf shrub) and forbs, and a reduction in that of grasses, nonvascular plants, and fine roots. In combination, higher foliar δ 15 N values and the transient response in soil inorganic N indicate a persistent increase in plant-available N and greater cumulative plant N uptake in warmer soils. Overall, greater N availability and increased DON concentrations suggest an opening of the N cycle with global warming, which might contribute to growth stimulation of some plant species while simultaneously leading to greater N losses from treeline ecosystems and possibly other cold biomes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons

  17. Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

    2016-11-30

    The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

  18. An electrical analogy relating the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce E Kurtz

    Full Text Available The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC is the northward flow of surface water to subpolar latitudes where deepwater is formed, balanced by southward abyssal flow and upwelling in the vicinity of the Southern Ocean. It is generally accepted that AMOC flow oscillates with a period of 60-80 years, creating a regular variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO. This article attempts to answer two questions: how is the AMOC driven and why does it oscillate? Using methods commonly employed by chemical engineers for analyzing processes involving flowing liquids, apparently not previously applied to trying to understand the AMOC, an equation is developed for AMOC flow as a function of the meridional density gradient or the corresponding temperature gradient. The equation is based on the similarity between the AMOC and an industrial thermosyphon loop cooler, which circulates a heat transfer liquid without using a mechanical pump. Extending this equation with an analogy between the flow of heat and electricity explains why the AMOC flow oscillates and what determines its period. Calculated values for AMOC flow and AMO oscillation period are in good agreement with measured values.

  19. Restoration practicesin Brazil's Atlantic rainforest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorge Correa de Lima Palidon; Maisa dos Santos Guapyassu

    2005-01-01

    The atlantic Rain Forst (Mata Atlantica) extends along the southern coast of Brazil and inland into Argentina and Paraguay. Originally covering 15% of the land area of Brazil, it was a region of an estimated 1.3 million km2 (MMA 2000). Today, remnants of the Atlantic Forest represents about 8% of the original area, or some 94,000 km2...

  20. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A.; Mann, Michael E.; Miller, Sonya K.

    2015-02-01

    The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth’s climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed “AMO” and “PMO,” respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or “false pause” in warming of the past decade.

  1. Eddy-driven stratification initiates North Atlantic spring phytoplankton blooms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Amala; D'Asaro, Eric; Lee, Craig; Perry, Mary Jane

    2012-07-06

    Springtime phytoplankton blooms photosynthetically fix carbon and export it from the surface ocean at globally important rates. These blooms are triggered by increased light exposure of the phytoplankton due to both seasonal light increase and the development of a near-surface vertical density gradient (stratification) that inhibits vertical mixing of the phytoplankton. Classically and in current climate models, that stratification is ascribed to a springtime warming of the sea surface. Here, using observations from the subpolar North Atlantic and a three-dimensional biophysical model, we show that the initial stratification and resulting bloom are instead caused by eddy-driven slumping of the basin-scale north-south density gradient, resulting in a patchy bloom beginning 20 to 30 days earlier than would occur by warming.

  2. A new international environmental order? An assessment of the impact of the global warming epistemic community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, H.A.

    1993-12-01

    Global warming is a problem which ignores national boundaries, making international cooperation essential. The role of epistemic communities, or those composed of professionals who share a commitment to a common causal model and a set of political values, in affecting the international response to the global warming problem is examined. It is claimed that the epistemic global warming community can affect the policy process, both domestically and internationally, and facilitate cooperation in an era of ecological interdependence. This claim is explored and eventually supported through the examination of two case studies: the responses of Canada and Britain to the issue of global warming between 1988 and November 1990. The case studies are supplemented with a more general discussion of the issues surrounding the international politics of global warming through the same period. Through these studies, it is found that a global warming community can be identified and that its efforts have played a significant role in framing the global warming issue. 121 refs

  3. Warm mix asphalt : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The performance of pavements constructed using warm mix asphalt (WMA) technology were : compared to the performance of conventional hot mix asphalt (HMA) pavements placed on the : same project. Measurements of friction resistance, rutting/wear, ride ...

  4. Authropogenic Warming in North Alaska?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Patrick J.; Sappington, David E.; Stooksbury, David E.

    1988-09-01

    Using permafrost boreholes, Lachenbruch and Marshall recently reported evidence for a 2°-4°C warming in North Alaska occurring at some undetermined time during the last century. Popular accounts suggest their findings are evidence for anthropogenic warming caused by trace gases. Analyses of North Alaskan 1000-500 mb thickness onwards back to 1948 indicate that the warming was prior to that date. Relatively sparse thermometric data for the early twentieth century from Jones et al. are too noisy to support any trend since the data record begins in 1910, or to apply to any subperiod of climatic significance. Any warming detected from the permafrost record therefore occurred before the major emissions of thermally active trace gases.

  5. Global warming and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodgson, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    The problems of pollution, global warming and renewable energy sources are not going to go away. Governments need to act with urgency if they are to produce a long-term energy policy. This paper looks at the current energy situation, and how this would project into the future without the instigation of radical changes. It concludes that nuclear is the best option available for averting a growing energy, pollution and global warming crisis. (author)

  6. Global warming: A vicious circle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinclair, J.

    1991-01-01

    As a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases the planet is already committed to regional droughts, storms, disruption of fisheries and the extinction of many plant and animal species. But current predictions of global warming do not take into account the reactions and interactions of the planet's land, ocean and ice masses to the rise in temperatures. It seems likely that the greenhouse effect will give rise to positive feedback reactions, leading to greater global warming than predicted

  7. North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.

    2018-06-01

    Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

  8. The warm chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, J Z

    1985-01-01

    1 series of events carried smallpox vaccination on an eastward odyssey; a 2nd path led westward from Spain to Spanish America, to the Philippines, and to China. Francisco Xavier Balmis (1753-1819), a Spanish physician, sailed around the world in 3 years, establishing vaccination boards in South America, the Philippines, and China. He led the "Real Expedicion Martima de la Vacuna," sponsored by the Bourbon King Charles IV; its success derived from arm-to-arm passage of the virus using orphan boys on the long voyages across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Venezuela was the 1st country to which Balmis introduced vaccine. He divided the expedition with his deputy, Slavany, who was to lead 1 group through the Spanish colonies in the Vice-Royalty of Peru; Balmis would lead the other group across the Vice-Royalty of New Spain to the far-distant colony in the Philippines. The establishment of central boards to regulate vaccination became one of Balmis's principal preoccupations. The board he created in Venezuela served as the model for those that he and Salvany were to establish later. Balmis sailed to Havana from La Guaira on May 8, 1804; Salvany led his team to Bogota. Balmis's singular success in Caracas, and Salvany's in Bogota, where Salvany also created a Central Vaccination Board, were attributable in large measure to the total support they received from church and civil authorites. The Portuguese throne had a comparable interest in its prize colony, Brazil. In 1804, Felisberto Calderia Brant Pontes sent a group of slave children from Bahia to Lisbon so that arm-to-arm transfer could be made on the return voyage. His effort was successful, and 1335 persons had been vaccinated in Bahia by June 1, 1804. In a decree of September 3, 1803 Charles IV directed that the Balmis expedition should continue to the Philippines. The advancement of health in the Philippines was a major commitment of the Spaniards. The Philippine vaccination expedition, headed by Balmis, sailed

  9. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  10. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

  11. An observational study on the temperature rising effects in water warming canal and water warming pond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, J. B.; Hong, S. B. [Rural Development Cooperation, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1990-09-15

    canal was the highest in August during the irrigation period and the water temperature rose with the air temperature until August. However, it was blunted after then. 6. A rising degree of water temperature of the practical value in the water warming pond was higher than that of the theoritical equation by 69% for the type I. and 57% for the type II. Accordingly, it was possible to acquire the result near the practical value. θ{sub w} - θ{sub o} = [1 - exp{ -h(1+2ψ)/Cp * A/q}] * (θ{sub ∞} - θ{sub 0}) * C. Here, C values are 1.69 for the type I. and 1.57 for the type II. 7. It was shown that the effect of the rise of water temperature was favorable when the thermal absorption was to be good by coloring the surface of the water warming pond and removing the bottom osmosis. 8. By enlarging the surface of water in comparison with the depth, and by having dead area of water in the water warming pond, this structure in the water warming pond is helpful for the rise of water temperature.

  12. Insights from a synthesis of old and new climate-proxy data from the Pyramid and Winnemucca lake basins for the period 48 to 11.5 cal ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Larry; Smoot, J.P.; Lund, S.P.; Mensing, S.A.; Foit, F.F.; Rye, R.O.

    2013-01-01

    A synthesis of old and new paleoclimatic data from the Pyramid and Winnemucca lake basins indicates that, between 48.0 and 11.5·103 calibrated years BP (hereafter ka), the climate of the western Great Basin was, to a degree, linked with the climate of the North Atlantic. Paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) records from Pyramid Lake core PLC08-1 were tied to the GISP2 ice-core record via PSV matches to North Atlantic sediment cores whose isotopic and(or) carbonate records could be linked to the GISP2 δ18O record. Relatively dry intervals in the western Great Basin were associated with cold Heinrich events and relatively wet intervals were associated with warm Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations. The association of western Great Basin dry events with North Atlantic cold events (and vice versa) switched sometime after the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) reached its maximum extent. For example, the Lahontan highstand, which culminated at 15.5 ka, and a period of elevated lake level between 13.1 and 11.7 ka were associated with cold North Atlantic conditions, the latter period with the Youngest Dryas event. Relatively dry periods were associated with the Bølling and Allerød warm events. A large percentage of the LIS may have been lost to the North Atlantic during Heinrich events 1 and 2 and may have resulted in the repositioning of the Polar Jet Stream over North America. The Trego Hot Springs, Wono, Carson Sink, and Marble Bluff tephras found in core PLC08-1 have been assigned GISP2 calendar ages of respectively, 29.9, 33.7, 34.1, and 43.2 ka. Given its unique trace-element chemistry, the Carson Sink Bed is the same as Wilson Creek Ash 15 in the Mono Lake Basin. This implies that the Mono Lake magnetic excursion occurred at approximately 34 ka and it is not the Laschamp magnetic excursion. The entrance of the First Americans into the northern Great Basin is dated to approximately 14.4 ka, a time when the climate was relatively dry. Evidence for human occupation of

  13. Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Martín-Rey

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have reported that the tropical Atlantic has had an influence on tropical Pacific interannual variability since the 1970s. This variability is studied in the present work, using simulations from a coupled model in the Indo-Pacific but with observed sea surface temperature (SST prescribed over the Atlantic. The interannual variability is compared with that from a control simulation in which climatological SSTs are prescribed over the Atlantic. Differences in the Pacific mean state and in its variability are found in the forced simulation as a response to a warming in the equatorial Atlantic, characterized by a cooler background state and an increase in the variability over the tropical Pacific. A striking result is that the principal modes of tropical Pacific SST interannual variability show significant differences before and after the 1970s, providing new evidence of the Atlantic influence on the Pacific Ocean. Significant cooling (warming in the equatorial Atlantic could have caused anomalous winds in the central-easter Pacific during the summer since 1970s. The thermocline depth also seems to be altered, triggering the dynamical processes involved in the development of El Niño (La Niña phenomenon in the following winter. An increase in frequency of Niño and Niña events favouring the Central Pacific (CP ones is observed in the last three decades. Further analyses using coupled models are still necessary to help us to understand the causes of this inter-basin connection.

  14. Forced-air warming discontinued: periprosthetic joint infection rates drop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott D. Augustine

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have shown that the waste heat from forced-air warming (FAW escapes near the floor and warms the contaminated air resident near the floor. The waste heat then forms into convection currents that rise up and contaminate the sterile field above the surgical table. It has been shown that a single airborne bacterium can cause a periprosthetic joint infection (PJI following joint replacement surgery. We retrospectively compared PJI rates during a period of FAW to a period of air-free conductive fabric electric warming (CFW at three hospitals. Surgical and antibiotic protocols were held constant. The pooled multicenter data showed a decreased PJI rate of 78% following the discontinuation of FAW and a switch to air-free CFW (n=2034; P=0.002. The 78% reduction in joint implant infections observed when FAW was discontinued suggests that there is a link between the waste FAW heat and PJIs.

  15. Active Movement Warm-Up Routines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Teri; Quint, Ashleigh; Fischer, Kim; Kiger, Joy

    2011-01-01

    This article presents warm-ups that are designed to physiologically and psychologically prepare students for vigorous physical activity. An active movement warm-up routine is made up of three parts: (1) active warm-up movement exercises, (2) general preparation, and (3) the energy system. These warm-up routines can be used with all grade levels…

  16. Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

  17. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  18. Sea Ice and Hydrographic Variability in the Northwest North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenty, I. G.; Heimbach, P.; Wunsch, C. I.

    2010-12-01

    Sea ice anomalies in the Northwest North Atlantic's Labrador Sea are of climatic interest because of known and hypothesized feedbacks with hydrographic anomalies, deep convection/mode water formation, and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric patterns. As greenhouse gas concentrations increase, hydrographic anomalies formed in the Arctic Ocean associated with warming will propagate into the Labrador Sea via the Fram Strait/West Greenland Current and the Canadian Archipelago/Baffin Island Current. Therefore, understanding the dynamical response of sea ice in the basin to hydrographic anomalies is essential for the prediction and interpretation of future high-latitude climate change. Historically, efforts to quantify the link between the observed sea ice and hydrographic variability in the region has been limited due to in situ observation paucity and technical challenges associated with synthesizing ocean and sea ice observations with numerical models. To elaborate the relationship between sea ice and ocean variability, we create three one-year (1992-1993, 1996-1997, 2003-2004) three-dimensional time-varying reconstructions of the ocean and sea ice state in Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay. The reconstructions are syntheses of a regional coupled 32 km ocean-sea ice model with a suite of contemporary in situ and satellite hydrographic and ice data using the adjoint method. The model and data are made consistent, in a least-squares sense, by iteratively adjusting several model control variables (e.g., ocean initial and lateral boundary conditions and the atmospheric state) to minimize an uncertainty-weighted model-data misfit cost function. The reconstructions reveal that the ice pack attains a state of quasi-equilibrium in mid-March (the annual sea ice maximum) in which the total ice-covered area reaches a steady state -ice production and dynamical divergence along the coasts balances dynamical convergence and melt along the pack’s seaward edge. Sea ice advected to the

  19. Warm measurements of CBA superconducting magnets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelmann, R.; Herrera, J.; Kahn, S.; Kirk, H.; Willen, E.; Yamin, P.

    1983-01-01

    We present results on magnetic field measurements of CBA dipole magnets in the warm (normal conductor) and cryogenic (superconducting) states. We apply two methods for the warm measurements, a dc and ac method. We find a good correlation between warm and cryogenic measurements which lends itself to a reliable diagnosis of magnet field errors using warm measurements early in the magnet assembly process. We further find good agreement between the two warm measurement methods, both done at low currents

  20. Peranan Environmental Accounting Terhadap Global Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Martusa, Riki

    2009-01-01

    This article explores about is global warming. The distortion of nature causes global warming. Industrial sector is one of global warming incurred. Some nations create a group to cope this matter. They try to reduce carbon emission as one of global warming causes by controlling industrial carbon emission through financial reporting. This article explores normatively roles of environmental accounting in cope with global warming.  

  1. Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

  2. Enhanced deep ocean ventilation and oxygenation with global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froelicher, T. L.; Jaccard, S.; Dunne, J. P.; Paynter, D.; Gruber, N.

    2014-12-01

    Twenty-first century coupled climate model simulations, observations from the recent past, and theoretical arguments suggest a consistent trend towards warmer ocean temperatures and fresher polar surface oceans in response to increased radiative forcing resulting in increased upper ocean stratification and reduced ventilation and oxygenation of the deep ocean. Paleo-proxy records of the warming at the end of the last ice age, however, suggests a different outcome, namely a better ventilated and oxygenated deep ocean with global warming. Here we use a four thousand year global warming simulation from a comprehensive Earth System Model (GFDL ESM2M) to show that this conundrum is a consequence of different rates of warming and that the deep ocean is actually better ventilated and oxygenated in a future warmer equilibrated climate consistent with paleo-proxy records. The enhanced deep ocean ventilation in the Southern Ocean occurs in spite of increased positive surface buoyancy fluxes and a constancy of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds - circumstances that would otherwise be expected to lead to a reduction in deep ocean ventilation. This ventilation recovery occurs through a global scale interaction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation undergoing a multi-centennial recovery after an initial century of transient decrease and transports salinity-rich waters inform the subtropical surface ocean to the Southern Ocean interior on multi-century timescales. The subsequent upwelling of salinity-rich waters in the Southern Ocean strips away the freshwater cap that maintains vertical stability and increases open ocean convection and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Waters. As a result, the global ocean oxygen content and the nutrient supply from the deep ocean to the surface are higher in a warmer ocean. The implications for past and future changes in ocean heat and carbon storage will be discussed.

  3. Simple climatic indices for the tropical Atlantic Ocean and some applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servain, Jacques

    1991-08-01

    Two indices related to the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Atlantic are proposed. One index describes the SST averaged over the whole basin (30°N to 20°S, 60°W to 15°E), and the other illustrates a meridional dipole between the northern and southern hemispheres. The computational method for obtaining these indices is intentionally kept simple, the objective being to reproduce the signature of the main results previously provided from more complicated statistical analyses. Monthly time series for both indices are produced from 1964 up to the present time. The whole basin index exhibits principally a sustained warming which has intensified since about 1975, and it has a significant periodicity close to that of the quasi-biennial oscillation. The dipole index exhibits a decadal-scale variation, and its building up seems to be related to other worldwide climatic changes, as for instance El Niño / Southern Oscillation extreme episodes, rainfall variabilities over the Brazilian Nordeste and African Sahel.

  4. What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Shi, J. J.; Tao, W. K.; Kim, K. M.

    2016-01-01

    Based on ensemble numerical simulations, we find that possible responses of Sandy-like superstorms under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean bifurcate into two groups. In the first group, storms are similar to present-day Sandy from genesis to extratropical transition, except they are much stronger, with peak Power Destructive Index (PDI) increased by 50-80%, heavy rain by 30-50%, and maximum storm size (MSS) approximately doubled. In the second group, storms amplify substantially over the interior of the Atlantic warm pool, with peak PDI increased by 100-160%, heavy rain by 70-180%, and MSS more than tripled compared to present-day Superstorm Sandy. These storms when exiting the warm pool, recurve northeastward out to sea, subsequently interact with the developing midlatitude storm by mutual counterclockwise rotation around each other and eventually amplify into a severe Northeastern coastal storm, making landfall over the extreme northeastern regions from Maine to Nova Scotia.

  5. Rethinking Atlantic History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Walvin

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available [First paragraph] Shaping the Stuart World 1603-1714: The Atlantic Connection. Allan I. Macinnes & Arthur H. Williamson (eds.. Leiden: Brill Academic Publishers, 2006. xiv + 389 pp. (Cloth US$ 135.00 Slavery and the British Empire: From Africa to America. Kenneth Morgan. New York: Oxford University Press, 2007. x + 221 pp. (Paper US$ 32.00 Although an important debate continues about the concept itself, the use of “the Atlantic” has embedded itself in scholarly vernacular. The scholarly output directly spawned by an engagement with the concept continues apace. That ocean, and the peoples who lived and traded along its edges, and who finally moved across it, have provided an important geographical focus for some major reconsiderations of modern history. Prompted by the Macinnes/Williamson volume, I returned to my own undergraduate and graduate notes and essays from courses on Stuart Britain: the Atlantic was totally absent – not even present as a distant speck on our intellectual map. We studied, and debated, the formal histories of migrations to the Americas (i.e. European migrations but there was no mention of Africa or Africans. And no sense was conveyed that the European engagement with the Americas (in their totality – as opposed to North America was a two-way, mutual force: that the European world was influenced, indeed shaped in many critical regards, by the Americas: by the land, the products, the peoples, and by the markets of that hemisphere. At its most obvious in the ebb and flow of peoples, even that eluded the historians I encountered as a student. It was as if we were talking about a different cosmos; few moved beyond the conventions of European migrations westwards and little attention was paid to that most dominant of migrations – the enforced African migrations to the Americas.

  6. FVS and global Warming: A prospectus for future development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Dennis E. Ferguson; Marcus Warwell

    2008-01-01

    Climate change-global warming and changes in precipitation-will cause changes in tree growth rates, mortality rates, the distribution of tree species, competition, and species interactions. An implicit assumption in FVS is that site quality will remain the same as it was during the time period observations used to calibrate the component models were made and that the...

  7. The politics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moss, N.

    1991-01-01

    The probable warming of the world over the next few decades due to human activity presents a unique threat. The threat of global warming has been brought about by the activities of the entire human race, and only action by a large part of the human race can slow down the process or halt it. Other unwanted effects of industrial activity are trans-national, and require international agreements to regulate them, most obviously radioactivity from nuclear power accidents, acid rain and river pollution; but climatic change, unlike these, is global. International negotiations are going on now to deal with the problem of global warming, mostly by reducing the emission of gases that contribute to it. These are preliminary, yet already different perceptions and conflicting interests are emerging. The aim of the present negotiations is a convention for the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) to be held in June 1992, the so-called ''Earth Summit''. (author)

  8. Climatic warming increases winter wheat yield but reduces grain nitrogen concentration in east China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunlu Tian

    Full Text Available Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05, respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05 higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat.

  9. A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

    2014-05-01

    An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming

  10. Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

  11. "New Climate" Warmed, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "Extreme" Meteorological Phenomena associated with El Niño 2015-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2016-12-01

    Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global warming has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in winter periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in winter, which brings the warm tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "extreme" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by extreme events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and winter 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed

  12. Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

  13. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2013-09-16

    In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis, C. helgolandicus, C. hyperboreus) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus, which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time. © 2013 © 2013 International Council for

  14. Pacific and Atlantic influences on Mesoamerican climate over the past millennium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stahle, D.W.; Burnette, D.J.; Fye, F.K.; Cleaveland, M.K. [University of Arkansas, Department of Geosciences, Fayetteville, AR (United States); Diaz, J.V.; Paredes, J.C. [Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas, y Pecuarias, Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia, Gomez Palacio, Durango (Mexico); Heim, R.R. [NOAA, National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC (United States); Soto, R.A. [UNAM, Departamento Microbiologia y Parastologia, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)

    2012-09-15

    A new tree-ring reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Mesoamerica from AD 771 to 2008 identifies megadroughts more severe and sustained than any witnessed during the twentieth century. Correlation analyses indicate strong forcing of instrumental and reconstructed June PDSI over Mesoamerica from the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Spectral analyses of the 1,238-year reconstruction indicate significant concentrations of variance at ENSO, sub-decadal, bi-decadal, and multidecadal timescales. Instrumental and model-based analyses indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is important to warm season climate variability over Mexico. Ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic is not strongly correlated with the June PDSI reconstruction during the instrumental era, but may be responsible for the strong multidecadal variance detected in the reconstruction episodically over the past millennium. June drought indices in Mesoamerica are negatively correlated with gridded June PDSI over the United States from 1950 to 2005, based on both instrumental and reconstructed data. Interannual variability in this latitudinal moisture gradient is due in part to ENSO forcing, where warm events favor wet June PDSI conditions over the southern US and northern Mexico, but dryness over central and southern Mexico (Mesoamerica). Strong anti-phasing between multidecadal regimes of tree-ring reconstructed June PDSI over Mesoamerica and reconstructed summer (JJA) PDSI over the Southwest has also been detected episodically over the past millennium, including the 1950-1960s when La Nina and warm Atlantic SSTs prevailed, and the 1980-1990s when El Nino and cold Atlantic SSTs prevailed. Several Mesoamerican megadroughts are reconstructed when wetness prevailed over the Southwest, including the early tenth century Terminal Classic Drought, implicating El Nino and Atlantic SSTs in this intense and widespread drought that may have contributed to social changes

  15. A note on Arabian Sea warm pool and its possible relation with monsoon onset over Kerala

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chacko, K.V.; HareeshKumar, P.V.; RameshKumar, M.R.; Mathew, B.; Bannur, V.M.

    The possible relation of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) with monsoon onset over Kerala is studied by utilizing the TRMM Microwave Imager data during the period 2007-2011 (5 years). The ASWP is a part of the Indian Ocean warm pool and forms...

  16. Astrochronology of extreme global warming events during the early Eocene greenhouse climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauretano, V.

    2016-01-01

    The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of enhanced global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system and the relationship between carbon cycling and climate. During this time interval, the Earth’s surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of

  17. Atmospheric circulation in northern hemisphere and north atlantic oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Вадимович Холопцев

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Conditions under which statistical connections of interannual changes of repitition duration periods in Northern hemisphere of elementary circulation mechanisms associated to meridional northern and meridional southern groups with variations of North Atlantic oscillation are significant were revealed. It is shown, that the characteristics changes of these connections taking place in modern period can be caused by distribution changes of distribution of sea surface temperatures

  18. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. England

    1994-08-01

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean exchange of

  19. South Atlantic circulation in a world ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew H. England

    Full Text Available The circulation in the South Atlantic Ocean has been simulated within a global ocean general circulation model. Preliminary analysis of the modelled ocean circulation in the region indicates a rather close agreement of the simulated upper ocean flows with conventional notions of the large-scale geostrophic currents in the region. The modelled South Atlantic Ocean witnesses the return flow and export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW at its northern boundary, the inflow of a rather barotropic Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC through the Drake Passage, and the inflow of warm saline Agulhas water around the Cape of Good Hope. The Agulhas leakage amounts to 8.7 Sv, within recent estimates of the mass transport shed westward at the Agulhas retroflection. Topographic steering of the ACC dominates the structure of flow in the circumpolar ocean. The Benguela Current is seen to be fed by a mixture of saline Indian Ocean water (originating from the Agulhas Current and fresher Subantarctic surface water (originating in the ACC. The Benguela Current is seen to modify its flow and fate with depth; near the surface it flows north-westwards bifurcating most of its transport northward into the North Atlantic Ocean (for ultimate replacement of North Atlantic surface waters lost to the NADW conveyor. Deeper in the water column, more of the Benguela Current is destined to return with the Brazil Current, though northward flows are still generated where the Benguela Current extension encounters the coast of South America. At intermediate levels, these northward currents trace the flow of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW equatorward, though even more AAIW is seen to recirculate poleward in the subtropical gyre. In spite of the model's rather coarse resolution, some subtle features of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence are simulated rather well, including the latitude at which the two currents meet. Conceptual diagrams of the recirculation and interocean

  20. Virginia Atlantic Coast Recreational Use

    Data.gov (United States)

    Virginia Department of Environmental Quality — As a member of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO), Virginia, through its Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Program, collected information on how the...

  1. VA Atlantic Coast Recreational Use

    Data.gov (United States)

    Virginia Department of Environmental Quality — As a member of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Council on the Ocean (MARCO), Virginia, through its Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Program, collected information on how the...

  2. Efficiency, sustainability and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woodward, Richard T.; Bishop, Richard C.

    1995-01-01

    Economic analyses of global warming have typically been grounded in the theory of economic efficiency. Such analyses may be inappropriate because many of the underlying concerns about climate change are rooted not in efficiency, but in the intergenerational allocation of economic endowments. A simple economic model is developed which demonstrates that an efficient economy is not necessarily a sustainable economy. This result leads directly to questions about the policy relevance of several economic studies of the issue. We then consider policy alternatives to address global warming in the context of economies with the dual objectives of efficiency and sustainability, with particular attention to carbon-based taxes

  3. Global Warming: Physics and Facts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levi, B.G.; Hafemeister, D.; Scribner, R.

    1992-01-01

    This report contains papers on: A tutorial on global atmospheric energetics and the greenhouse effect; global climate models: what and how; comparison of general circulation models; climate and the earth's radiation budget; temperature and sea level change; short-term climate variability and predictions; the great ocean conveyor; trace gases in the atmosphere: temporal and spatial trends; the geochemical carbon cycle and the uptake of fossil fuel CO 2 ; forestry and global warming; the physical and policy linkages; policy implications of greenhouse warming; options for lowering US carbon dioxide emissions; options for reducing carbon dioxide emissions; and science and diplomacy: a new partnership to protect the environment

  4. Environmental impacts on the gonadotropic system in female Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) during vitellogenesis: Photothermal effects on pituitary gonadotropins, ovarian gonadotropin receptor expression, plasma sex steroids and oocyte growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taranger, Geir Lasse; Muncaster, Simon; Norberg, Birgitta; Thorsen, Anders; Andersson, Eva

    2015-09-15

    The gonadotropic system and ovarian growth and development were studied during vitellogenesis in female Atlantic salmon subjected to either simulated natural photoperiod and ambient water temperature (NL-amb), or an accelerating photoperiod (short day of LD8:16 from May 10) combined with either warmed (ca 2°C above ambient; 8L-warm) or cooled water (ca 2°C below ambient; 8L-cold) from May to September. Monthly samples were collected from 10 females/group for determination of transcript levels of pituitary gonadotropin subunits (fshb and lhb) and ovarian gonadotropin receptors (fshr and lhr), plasma sex steroids (testosterone: T and estradiol-17β: E2), gonadosomatic index (GSI) and oocyte size. Short day in combination with either warmed or cooled water induced an earlier increase in pituitary fshb and lhb levels compared with NL-amb controls, and advanced ovarian growth and the seasonal profiles of T, E2. By contrast only minor effects were seen of the photothermal treatments on ovarian fshr and lhr. The 8L-cold had earlier increase in fshb, lhb and E2, but similar oocyte and gonadal growth as 8L-warm, suggesting that the 8L-cold group tried to compensate for the lower water temperature during the period of rapid gonadal growth by increasing fshb and E2 production. Both the 8L-warm and 8L-cold groups showed incomplete ovulation in a proportion of the females, possibly due to the photoperiod advancement resulting in earlier readiness of spawning occurring at a higher ambient temperature, or due to some reproductive dysfunction caused by photothermal interference with normal neuroendocrine regulation of oocyte development and maturation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Active Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) during the warm Pliocene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J; Fedorov, Alexey V; Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Tiedemann, Ralf; Haug, Gerald H

    2017-09-01

    An essential element of modern ocean circulation and climate is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which includes deep-water formation in the subarctic North Atlantic. However, a comparable overturning circulation is absent in the Pacific, the world's largest ocean, where relatively fresh surface waters inhibit North Pacific deep convection. We present complementary measurement and modeling evidence that the warm, ~400-ppmv (parts per million by volume) CO 2 world of the Pliocene supported subarctic North Pacific deep-water formation and a Pacific meridional overturning circulation (PMOC) cell. In Pliocene subarctic North Pacific sediments, we report orbitally paced maxima in calcium carbonate accumulation rate, with accompanying pigment and total organic carbon measurements supporting deep-ocean ventilation-driven preservation as their cause. Together with high accumulation rates of biogenic opal, these findings require vigorous bidirectional communication between surface waters and interior waters down to ~3 km in the western subarctic North Pacific, implying deep convection. Redox-sensitive trace metal data provide further evidence of higher Pliocene deep-ocean ventilation before the 2.73-Ma (million years) transition. This observational analysis is supported by climate modeling results, demonstrating that atmospheric moisture transport changes, in response to the reduced meridional sea surface temperature gradients of the Pliocene, were capable of eroding the halocline, leading to deep-water formation in the western subarctic Pacific and a strong PMOC. This second Northern Hemisphere overturning cell has important implications for heat transport, the ocean/atmosphere cycle of carbon, and potentially the equilibrium response of the Pacific to global warming.

  6. Problem Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... ovary syndrome. Read our information on PCOS for teens , and see your doctor if you think you may have PCOS. Major weight loss. Girls who have anorexia will often stop having periods. When to see ...

  7. Mechanisms of northeastern Brazil rainfall anomalies due to Southern Tropical Atlantic variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neelin, J.; Su, H.

    2004-05-01

    Observational studies have shown that the rainfall anomalies in eastern equatorial South America, including Nordeste Brazil, have a positive correlation with tropical southern Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Such relationships are reproduced in model simulations with the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM), which includes a simple land model. A suite of model ensemble experiments is analysed using observed SST over the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic and the tropical southern Atlantic (30S-0), respectively (with climatological SST in the remainder of the oceans). Warm tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies yield positive precipitation anomalies over the Nordeste and the southern edge of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Mechanisms associated with moisture variations are responsible for the land precipitation changes. Increases in moisture over the Atlantic cause positive anomalies in moisture advection, spreading increased moisture downwind. Where the basic state is far from the convective stability threshold, moisture changes have little effect, but the margins of the climatological convection zone are affected. The increased moisture supply due to advection is enhanced by increases in low-level convergence required by moist static energy balances. The moisture convergence term is several times larger, but experiments altering the moisture advection confirm that the feedback is initiated by wind acting on moisture gradient. This mechanism has several features in common with the recently published "upped-ante" mechanism for El Nino impacts on this region. In that case, the moisture gradient is initiated by warm free tropospheric temperature anomalies increasing the typical value of low-level moisture required to sustain convection in the convection zones. Both mechanisms suggest the usefulness of coordinating ocean and land in situ observations of boundary layer moisture.

  8. Continuously amplified warming in the Alaskan Arctic: Implications for estimating global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang; Zhang, Tingjun; Zhang, Xiangdong; Clow, Gary D.; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Overeem, Irina; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Peng, Xiaoqing; Cao, Bin

    2017-01-01

    Historically, in situ measurements have been notoriously sparse over the Arctic. As a consequence, the existing gridded data of surface air temperature (SAT) may have large biases in estimating the warming trend in this region. Using data from an expanded monitoring network with 31 stations in the Alaskan Arctic, we demonstrate that the SAT has increased by 2.19°C in this region, or at a rate of 0.23°C/decade during 1921–2015. Meanwhile, we found that the SAT warmed at 0.71°C/decade over 1998–2015, which is 2 to 3 times faster than the rate established from the gridded data sets. Focusing on the “hiatus” period 1998–2012 as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the SAT has increased at 0.45°C/decade, which captures more than 90% of the regional trend for 1951–2012. We suggest that sparse in situ measurements are responsible for underestimation of the SAT change in the gridded data sets. It is likely that enhanced climate warming may also have happened in the other regions of the Arctic since the late 1990s but left undetected because of incomplete observational coverage.

  9. Climatic irregular staircases: generalized acceleration of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Saedeleer, Bernard

    2016-01-27

    Global warming rates mentioned in the literature are often restricted to a couple of arbitrary periods of time, or of isolated values of the starting year, lacking a global view. In this study, we perform on the contrary an exhaustive parametric analysis of the NASA GISS LOTI data, and also of the HadCRUT4 data. The starting year systematically varies between 1880 and 2002, and the averaging period from 5 to 30 yr - not only decades; the ending year also varies . In this way, we uncover a whole unexplored space of values for the global warming rate, and access the full picture. Additionally, stairstep averaging and linear least squares fitting to determine climatic trends have been sofar exclusive. We propose here an original hybrid method which combines both approaches in order to derive a new type of climatic trend. We find that there is an overall acceleration of the global warming whatever the value of the averaging period, and that 99.9% of the 3029 Earth's climatic irregular staircases are rising. Graphical evidence is also given that choosing an El Niño year as starting year gives lower global warming rates - except if there is a volcanic cooling in parallel. Our rates agree and generalize several results mentioned in the literature.

  10. Sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas and the sensitivity to Atlantic water temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Mari F.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Spall, Michael A.

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the sea-ice cover of the Nordic Seas have been proposed to play a key role for the dramatic temperature excursions associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger events during the last glacial. However, with its proximity to the warm Atlantic water, how a sea-ice cover can persist in the Nordic Seas is not well understood. In this study, we apply an eddy-resolving configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model with an idealized topography to study the presence of sea ice in a Nordic Seas-like domain. We assume an infinite amount of warm Atlantic water present in the south by restoring the southern area to constant temperatures. The sea-surface temperatures are restored toward cold, atmospheric temperatures, and as a result, sea ice is present in the interior of the domain. However, the sea-ice cover in the margins of the Nordic Seas, an area with a warm, cyclonic boundary current, is sensitive to the amount of heat entering the domain, i.e., the restoring temperature in the south. When the temperature of the warm, cyclonic boundary current is high, the margins are free of sea ice and heat is released to the atmosphere. We show that with a small reduction in the temperature of the incoming Atlantic water, the Nordic Seas-like domain is fully covered in sea ice. Warm water is still entering the Nordic Seas, however, this happens at depths below a cold, fresh surface layer produced by melted sea ice. Consequently, the heat release to the atmosphere is reduced along with the eddy heat fluxes. Results suggest a threshold value in the amount of heat entering the Nordic Seas before the sea-ice cover disappears in the margins. We study the sensitivity of this threshold to changes in atmospheric temperatures and vertical diffusivity.

  11. Interannual to Decadal Variability of Atlantic Water in the Nordic and Adjacent Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carton, James A.; Chepurin, Gennady A.; Reagan, James; Haekkinen, Sirpa

    2011-01-01

    Warm salty Atlantic Water is the main source water for the Arctic Ocean and thus plays an important role in the mass and heat budget of the Arctic. This study explores interannual to decadal variability of Atlantic Water properties in the Nordic Seas area where Atlantic Water enters the Arctic, based on a reexamination of the historical hydrographic record for the years 1950-2009, obtained by combining multiple data sets. The analysis shows a succession of four multi-year warm events where temperature anomalies at 100m depth exceed 0.4oC, and three cold events. Three of the four warm events lasted 3-4 years, while the fourth began in 1999 and persists at least through 2009. This most recent warm event is anomalous in other ways as well, being the strongest, having the broadest geographic extent, being surface-intensified, and occurring under exceptional meteorological conditions. Three of the four warm events were accompanied by elevated salinities consistent with enhanced ocean transport into the Nordic Seas, with the exception of the event spanning July 1989-July 1993. Of the three cold events, two lasted for four years, while the third lasted for nearly 14 years. Two of the three cold events are associated with reduced salinities, but the cold event of the 1960s had elevated salinities. The relationship of these events to meteorological conditions is examined. The results show that local surface heat flux variations act in some cases to reinforce the anomalies, but are too weak to be the sole cause.

  12. Historic Storminess Changes in North Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, A. G.; Elliott, L.; Noone, S.; Hickey, K.; Foster, I.; Wadhams, P.; Mayewski, P.

    2001-05-01

    Reconstructed patterns of historic storminess (1870-1990 AD) for North Atlantic region as indicated by measurements from selected stations in Iceland, Faeroes, Scotland and Ireland show clear links with the climate "seesaw" winters first described by Van Loon and Rogers. The stormiest winters appear to have occurred during periods when measured Greenland air temperatures at Jacobshavn and reconstructed air temperatures from the Summit ice core site have been exceptionally low and when air temperature across northern Europe have been well above average. Maxima and minima of recorded winter storms for the various stations are also in agreement with the Sodium chronology from GISP2 that points to increased sea salt precipitation on Greenland ice at Summit during Greenland "below" periods of the climate seesaw.

  13. Changes in equatorial zonal circulations and precipitation in the context of the global warming and natural modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, B. H.; Ha, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    The strengthening and westward shift of Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is observed during the recent decades. However, the relative roles of global warming and natural variability on the change in PWC unclearly remain. By conducting numerical atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments using the spatial SST patterns in the global warming and natural modes which are obtained by the multi-variate EOF analysis from three variables including precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and divergent zonal wind, we indicated that the westward shift and strengthening of PWC are caused by the global warming SST pattern in the global warming mode and the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation-like SST pattern in the natural mode. The SST distribution of the Pacific Ocean (PO) has more influence on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations and tropical precipitation than that of the Indian Ocean (IO) and Atlantic Ocean (AO). The change in precipitation is also related to the equatorial zonal circulations variation through the upward and downward motions of the circulations. The IO and AO SST anomalies in the global warming mode can affect on the changes in equatorial zonal circulations, but the influence of PO SST disturbs the Indian Walker circulation and Atlantic Walker circulation changes by the IO and AO. The zonal shift of PWC is found to be highly associated with a zonal gradient of SST over the PO through the idealized numerical AGCM experiments and predictions of CMIP5 models.

  14. Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Hunter, S. J.; Bragg, F. J.; Contoux, C.; Stepanek, C.; Sohl, L.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Chan, W.-L.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

  15. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  16. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  17. What if mankind warms the earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellogg, W.W.

    1977-01-01

    There are a variety of human activities that are being pursued on such a large scale that they may influence regional and global climate. Virtually all of these activities, including the addition of carbon dioxide and particles to the atmosphere, are expected on theoretical grounds to cause an increase in mean surface temperature in the decades ahead, and by 2000 AD the total warming effect will probably be larger than any of the natural climate fluctuations during the past 1,000 years or more. It is therefore pertinent ot inquire what a warmer earth might be like; and to obtain a first rough answer we turn to our mathematical models of the atmosphere, and also to the conditions that have been deduced for the period about 4,000 to 8,000 years ago when the earth was apparently several degress warmer the now. Atan now. At that time some areas that are now subtropical deserts received more rainfall, and there were other areas in the middle latitudes that were drier. There are several important implications for society if mankind does succeed in warming the earth - and a number of still unanswered questions as well. (orig.) [de

  18. Warm-Up Strategies for Sport and Exercise: Mechanisms and Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Courtney J; Pyne, David B; Thompson, Kevin G; Rattray, Ben

    2015-11-01

    It is widely accepted that warming-up prior to exercise is vital for the attainment of optimum performance. Both passive and active warm-up can evoke temperature, metabolic, neural and psychology-related effects, including increased anaerobic metabolism, elevated oxygen uptake kinetics and post-activation potentiation. Passive warm-up can increase body temperature without depleting energy substrate stores, as occurs during the physical activity associated with active warm-up. While the use of passive warm-up alone is not commonplace, the idea of utilizing passive warming techniques to maintain elevated core and muscle temperature throughout the transition phase (the period between completion of the warm-up and the start of the event) is gaining in popularity. Active warm-up induces greater metabolic changes, leading to increased preparedness for a subsequent exercise task. Until recently, only modest scientific evidence was available supporting the effectiveness of pre-competition warm-ups, with early studies often containing relatively few participants and focusing mostly on physiological rather than performance-related changes. External issues faced by athletes pre-competition, including access to equipment and the length of the transition/marshalling phase, have also frequently been overlooked. Consequently, warm-up strategies have continued to develop largely on a trial-and-error basis, utilizing coach and athlete experiences rather than scientific evidence. However, over the past decade or so, new research has emerged, providing greater insight into how and why warm-up influences subsequent performance. This review identifies potential physiological mechanisms underpinning warm-ups and how they can affect subsequent exercise performance, and provides recommendations for warm-up strategy design for specific individual and team sports.

  19. North Atlantic Energy Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, S. [North Atlantic Energy Structures Inc., St. John' s, NL (Canada); Derradji, A. [National Research Council of Canada, St. John' s, NL (Canada). Inst. for Ocean Technology

    2005-07-01

    North Atlantic Energy Structures Inc. is in the process of designing a tidal fence for a site near the Straits of Belle Isle. This presentation provided details of both the design and the location in which the wave energy plant will be installed. Design constraints included a short seasonal work window, and a harsh but pristine environment. Design specifications of the paddlewheels and caissons were presented. The paddlewheel is iceberg and slab ice resistant, and has portals below the wheel axis, a water-free upper chamber, and bi-directional power generation. The planned installation sequence was presented, as well as details of a hydrodynamic simulation examining torque on the turbines in the tidal energy chamber. Results of the study indicated that 20 paddlewheels per caisson provided the equivalent of 12 MW of energy. A tidal fence of 70 to 80 caissons provided the equivalent of 1.2 GW of energy. A slab ice simulation study was outlined, and details of the pumping station, inlet and hydro-generation station were provided. A map of the proposed siting of the tidal fence was presented. It was concluded that financing for the pilot project has been granted. However, further financing for research and development is required. refs., tabs., figs.

  20. A warm thermal enclave in the late Pleistocene of the south-eastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Dale A; Rich, Fredrick J; Schneider, Vincent; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2009-05-01

    Physical and biological evidence supports the probable existence of an enclave of relatively warm climate located between the Southern Appalachian Mountains and the Atlantic Ocean in the United States during the Last Glacial Maximum. The region supported a mosaic of forest and prairie habitats inhabited by a "Floridian" ice-age biota. Plant and vertebrate remains suggest an ecological gradient towards Cape Hatteras (35 degreesN) wherein forests tended to replace prairies, and browsing proboscideans tended to replace grazing proboscideans. Beyond 35 degreesN, warm waters of the Gulf Stream were deflected towards the central Atlantic, and a cold-facies biota replaced "Floridian" biota on the Atlantic coastal plain. Because of niche diversity and relatively benign climate, biodiversity may have been greater in the south-eastern thermal enclave than in other unglaciated areas of North America. However, the impact of terminal Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions may also have been shorter and more severe in the enclave than further north. A comparison with biotic changes that occurred in North America approximately 55 million years (ma) ago at the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum suggests that similar processes of change took place under both ice-house and greenhouse climates.

  1. ProAtlantic - The Atlantic Checkpoint - Data Availability and Adequacy in the Atlantic Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrath, F.

    2017-12-01

    DG MAREs Atlantic Checkpoint is a basin scale wide monitoring system assessment activity based upon targeted end-user applications. It is designed to be a benchmark for the assessment of hydrographic, geological, habitat, climate and fisheries data existence and availability in the Atlantic basin. DG MAREs Atlantic Checkpoint service will be delivered by the ProAtlantic project. The objective of this project is to investigate, through appropriate methodologies in the framework of 11 key marine challenges, how current international and national data providers - e.g. EMODNet, Copernicus - meet the requirements of the stakeholders and deliver fit for purpose data. By so doing, the main thematic and geographic gaps will be readily identified in the Atlantic basin for future consideration by DG MARE. For each challenge, specific web products in the form of maps, metadata, spreadsheets and reports will be delivered. These products are not an end by themselves but rather a means of showing whether data were available, let alone accessible. For example, the Fisheries Impact Challenge outputs include data grids (VMS/Seabed) and data adequacy reports. Production of gridded data layers in order to show the extent of fisheries impact on the seafloor involved the identification, acquisition and collation of data sources for the required data types (VMS/Seabed/Habitats Data) in the Atlantic basin. The resulting spatial coverage of these grids indicates the relatively low level of data availability and adequacy across the Atlantic basin. Aside from the data delivered by programmes such as EMODNet and Copernicus, there are a lot of initiatives by regional bodies such as OSPAR and ICES that consist of assembling and disseminating data to address specific issues. Several international projects have delivered research, data collection, and networking around several of the Atlantic Checkpoint challenge topics, namely MPAs, renewable energy assessment, seabed mapping, oil spill

  2. Impact of the Atlantic Warm Pool on precipitation and temperature in Florida during North Atlantic cold spells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Donders, T.H.; Boer, H.J. de; Finsinger, W.; Grimm, E.C.; Dekker, S.C.; Reichart, G.J.; Wagner-Cremer, F.

    2011-01-01

    Recurrent phases of increased pine at Lake Tulane, Florida have previously been related to strong stadials terminated by so-called Heinrich events. The climatic significance of these pine phases has been interpreted in different ways. Using a pollen-climate inference model, we quantified the climate

  3. Versions of the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides a brief chronology of changes made to EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM), organized by WARM version number. The page includes brief summaries of changes and updates since the previous version.

  4. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  5. Global warming: Clouds cooled the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten

    2016-12-01

    The slow instrumental-record warming is consistent with lower-end climate sensitivity. Simulations and observations now show that changing sea surface temperature patterns could have affected cloudiness and thereby dampened the warming.

  6. Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

    2013-01-01

    African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

  7. Baroclinic wave configurations evolution at European scale in the period 1948-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbunaru, Daniel; Burcea, Sorin; Carbunaru, Felicia

    2016-04-01

    The main aim of the study was to investigate the dynamic characteristics of synoptic configurations at European scale and especially in south-eastern part of Europe for the period 1948-2013. Using the empirical orthogonal functions analysis, simultaneously applied to daily average geopotential field at different pressure levels (200 hPa, 300 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa) during warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) seasons, on a synoptic spatial domain centered on Europe (-27.5o lon V to 45o lon E and 32.5o lat N to 72.5o lat N), the main mode of oscillation characteristic to vertical shift of mean baroclinic waves was obtained. The analysis independently applied on 66 years showed that the first eigenvectors in warms periods describe about 60% of the data and in cold season 40% of the data for each year. In comparison secondary eigenvectors describe up to 20% and 10% of the data. Thus, the analysis was focused on the complex evolution of the first eigenvector in 66 years, during the summer period. On average, this eigenvector describes a small vertical phase shift in the west part of the domain and a large one in the eastern part. Because the spatial extent of the considered synoptic domain incorporates in the west part AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) oscillations, and in the north part being sensitive to AO (Arctic Oscillation) oscillation, these three oscillations were considered as modulating dynamic factors at hemispherical scale. The preliminary results show that in the summer seasons AMO and NAO oscillations modulated vertical phase shift of baroclinic wave in the west of the area (Northwestern Europe), and the relationship between AO and NAO oscillations modulated vertical phase shift in the southeast area (Southeast Europe). Second, it was shown the way in which this vertical phase shift modulates the overall behavior of cyclonic activity, particularly in Southeastern Europe. This work has been developed

  8. 75 FR 30483 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures; Amendment 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    ... and 635 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures; Amendment 3; Final Rule... and 635 [Docket No. 080519678-0217-02] RIN 0648-AW65 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark... available to rebuild blacknose sharks and end overfishing of blacknose and shortfin mako sharks, consistent...

  9. 77 FR 61562 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2013 Atlantic Shark Commercial Fishing Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-10

    .... 120706221-2481-01] RIN 0648-XC106 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2013 Atlantic Shark Commercial Fishing... establish opening dates and adjust quotas for the 2013 fishing season for the Atlantic commercial shark... the 2011 and 2012 Atlantic commercial shark fishing seasons. We propose to keep the porbeagle shark...

  10. 78 FR 59878 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Commercial Atlantic Aggregated Large Coastal Shark (LCS...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    ... Coastal Shark (LCS), Atlantic Hammerhead Shark, Atlantic Blacknose Shark, and Atlantic Non-Blacknose Small Coastal Shark (SCS) Management Groups AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic... closing the commercial management groups for aggregated LCS and hammerhead sharks in the Atlantic region...

  11. 76 FR 72383 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-23

    ...-BA17 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures AGENCY: National Marine... plan (FMP) amendment that would consider catch shares for the Atlantic shark fisheries. The comment... potential catch shares programs in the Atlantic shark fisheries. Additionally, NMFS is extending the comment...

  12. 78 FR 54195 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Commercial Shark Fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-03

    .... 110831548-3536-02] RIN 0648-XC836 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Commercial Shark Fisheries...) dressed weight (dw) of non-blacknose small coastal shark (SCS) quota from the Atlantic region to the Gulf... Atlantic shark permitted vessels. DATES: The quota transfer is effective from September 2, 2013 until...

  13. 76 FR 67121 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2012 Atlantic Shark Commercial Fishing Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-31

    .... 110913585-1625-01] RIN 0648-BB36 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2012 Atlantic Shark Commercial Fishing... establish opening dates and adjust quotas for the 2012 fishing season for the Atlantic commercial shark... 2011 Atlantic commercial shark fishing seasons. In addition, NMFS proposes season openings based on...

  14. Atlantic menhaden processing plant test tagging data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Atlantic menhaden are a schooling forage fish species, which are subject to a large commercial purse seine fishery. Atlantic menhaden are harvested for reduction...

  15. Cold-season atmospheric response to the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gastineau, Guillaume; Frankignoul, Claude [LOCEAN/IPSL, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 place Jussieu, BP100, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2012-07-15

    The influence of the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the atmosphere is studied in multi-centennial simulations of six global climate models, using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). In all models, a significant but weak influence of the AMOC changes is found during the Northern Hemisphere cold-season, when the ocean leads the atmosphere by a few years. Although the oceanic pattern slightly varies, an intensification of the AMOC is followed in all models by a weak sea level pressure response that resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The signal amplitude is typically 0.5 hPa and explains about 10% of the yearly variability of the NAO in all models. The atmospheric response seems to be due primarily due to an increase of the heat loss along the North Atlantic Current and the subpolar gyre, associated with an AMOC-driven warming. Sea-ice changes appear to be less important. The stronger heating is associated to a southward shift of the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity and a decrease of the eddy activity in the North Atlantic storm track, which is consistent with the equivalent barotropic perturbation resembling the negative phase of the NAO. This study thus provides some evidence of an atmospheric signature of the AMOC in the cold-season, which may have some implications for the decadal predictability of climate in the North Atlantic region. (orig.)

  16. The impact of meteorology on smoke and low-level clouds over the southeast Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebiyi, Adeyemi A.

    the mid-tropospheric easterly-transporting system on both the elevated smoke and the low-level cloud environments; and the synoptic-scale sensitivity of the low-level clouds to a range of interacting meteorological conditions, with and without the presence of the elevated smoke. First, the analysis of the radiosondes at St. Helena Island, a small island located approximately 1800 km offshore of continental Africa (15.9°S, 5.6°W), shows the presence of mid-tropospheric moisture within the smoke layer, and above the low-level clouds. The smoke layer has previously been associated with hot and dry layer, perhaps in analogy to the Saharan air layer. The mid-tropospheric moisture over the south-east Atlantic has not been previously documented, and it occurs more than 70% of the time between September and October. During the same months, as the aerosol loading increases, the amount of the mid-tropospheric moisture also increases. The result of the radiative transfer calculations shows that the mid-tropospheric moisture-induced longwave cooling accounts for about 30% of the aerosol-induced shortwave warming, within the smoke layer. At the cloud top, increased mid-tropospheric moisture could increase cloud-top heights by enhancing the downwelling longwave radiation at the cloud top, and potentially reducing the turbulent mixing within the boundary layer, which may ultimately reduce the cloud fraction. This process essentially opposes the cloud-thickening semi-direct aerosol effect due to the elevated smoke alone.? By isolating the independent effects of selected above-cloud and surface-based meteorological influences during July-October period, it is shown that increases in lower tropospheric stability (LTS, defined as theta800 hPa - theta1000 hPa), cold surface advection and warm 800 hPa horizontal temperature advection, all lead to increases in marine low-level cloudiness over the southeast Atlantic. In addition, the mid-tropospheric moisture is shown to independently

  17. Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

    2018-02-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

  18. Effect of Global Warming and Increased Freshwater Flux on Northern Hemispheric Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girihagama, L. N.; Nof, D.

    2016-02-01

    We wish to answer the, fairly complicated, question of whether global warming and an increased freshwater flux can cause Northern Hemispheric warming or cooling. Starting from the assumption that the ocean is the primary source of variability in the Northern hemispheric ocean-atmosphere coupled system, we employed a simple non-linear one-dimensional coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The simplicity of the model allows us to analytically predict the evolution of many dynamical variables of interest such as, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), temperatures of the ocean and atmosphere, mass transports, salinity, and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes. The model results show that a reduced AMOC transport due to an increased freshwater flux causes cooling in both the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic (NA) deep-water formation region. Cooling in both the ocean and atmosphere can cause reduction of the ocean-atmosphere temperature difference, which in turn reduces heat fluxes in both the ocean and atmosphere. For present day climate parameters, the calculated critical freshwater flux needed to arrest AMOC is 0.08 Sv. For a constant atmospheric zonal flow, there is minimal reduction in the AMOC strength, as well as minimal warming of the ocean and atmosphere. This model provides a conceptual framework for a dynamically sound response of the ocean and atmosphere to AMOC variability as a function of increased freshwater flux. The results are qualitatively consistent with numerous realistic coupled numerical models of varying complexity.

  19. Atlantic Seaduck Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, M.C.; Hanson, Alan; Kerekes, Joseph; Paquet, Julie

    2006-01-01

    Atlantic Seaduck Project is being conducted to learn more about the breeding and moulting areas of seaducks in northern Canada and more about their feeding ecology on wintering areas, especially Chesapeake Bay. Satellite telemetry is being used to track surf scoters wintering in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland and black scoters on migrational staging areas in New Brunswick, Canada to breeding and moulting areas in northern Canada. Various techniques used to capture the scoters included mist netting, night-lighting, and net capture guns. All captured ducks were transported to a veterinary hospital where surgery was conducted following general anaesthesia procedures. A PTT100 transmitter (39 g) manufactured by Microwave, Inc., Columbia, Maryland was implanted into the duck?s abdominal cavity with an external (percutaneous) antenna. Eight of the surf scoters from Chesapeake Bay successfully migrated to possible breeding areas in Canada and all 13 of the black scoters migrated to suspected breeding areas. Ten of the 11 black scoter males migrated to James Bay presumably for moulting. Updated information from the ARGOS Systems aboard the NOAA satellites on scoter movements was made accessible on the Patuxent Website. Habitat cover types of locations using GIS (Geographical Information Systems) and aerial photographs (in conjunction with remote sensing software) are currently being analyzed to build thematic maps with varying cosmetic layer applications. Many factors related to human population increases have been implicated in causing changes in the distribution and abundance of wintering seaducks. Analyses of the gullet (oesophagus and proventriculus) and the gizzard of seaducks are currently being conducted to determine if changes from historical data have occurred. Scoters in the Bay feed predominantly on the hooked mussel and several species of clams. The long-tailed duck appears to select the gem clam in greater amounts than other seaducks, but exhibits a diverse diet of

  20. Cosmic rays and global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erlykin, A.D. [P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation); Sloan, T. [Lancaster University (United Kingdom); Wolfendale, A.W. [Durham University (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-01

    The possible effects of cosmic rays on clouds could contribute to global warming. The argument is that the observed increased solar activity during the last century caused a decrease in the ionization due to cosmic rays since the lower energy cosmic particles are deflected by the magnetic field created by the increasing solar wind. This would lead to a decrease in cloud cover allowing more heating of the earth by the sun. Meteorological data combined to solar activity observations and simulations show that any effect of solar activity on clouds and the climate is likely to be through irradiance rather than cosmic rays. Since solar irradiance transfers 8 orders of magnitude more energy to the atmosphere than cosmic rays it is more plausible that this can produce a real effect. The total contribution of variable solar activity to global warming is shown to be less than 14% of the total temperature rise. (A.C.)

  1. Global Warming and Financial Umbrellas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dosi, C.; Moretto, M.

    2001-10-01

    A new instrument for hedging weather risks has made its appearance in the financial arena. Trade in 'weather derivatives' has taken off in the US, and interest is growing elsewhere. Whilst such contracts may be simply interpreted as a new tool for solving a historical problem, the question addressed in this paper is if, besides other factors, the appearance of weather derivatives is somehow related to anthropogenic climate change. Our tentative answer is positive. Since 'global warming' does not simply mean an increase in averaged temperatures, but increased climate variability, and increased frequency and magnitude of weather extremes, derivative contracts may potentially become a useful tool for hedging some weather risks, insofar as they may provide coverage at a lower cost than standard insurance schemes. Keywords: Global warming, climate variability, insurance coverage, weather derivatives

  2. Warm Debris Disks from WISE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padgett, Deborah L.

    2011-01-01

    "The Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) has just completed a sensitive all-sky survey in photometric bands at 3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 microns. We report on a preliminary investigation of main sequence Hipparcos and Tycho catalog stars with 22 micron emission in excess of photospheric levels. This warm excess emission traces material in the circumstellar region likely to host terrestrial planets and is preferentially found in young systems with ages warm debris disk candidates are detected among FGK stars and a similar number of A stars within 120 pc. We are in the process of obtaining spectra to determine spectral types and activity level of these stars and are using HST, Herschel and Keck to characterize the dust, multiplicity, and substellar companions of these systems. In this contribution, we will discuss source selection methods and individual examples from among the WISE debris disk candidates. "

  3. Global Warming Blame the Sun

    CERN Document Server

    Calder, N

    1997-01-01

    Concern about climate change reaches a political peak at a UN conference in Kyoto, 1-10 December, but behind the scenes the science is in turmoil. A challenge to the hypothesis that greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming comes from the discovery that cosmic rays from the Galaxy are involved in making clouds (Svensmark and Friis-Christensen, 1997). During the 20th Century the wind from the Sun has grown stronger and the count of cosmic rays has diminished. With fewer clouds, the EarthÕs surface has warmed up. This surprising mechanism explains the link between the Sun and climate change that astronomers and geophysicists have suspected for 200 years.

  4. Plant movements and climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A.; De Schrijver, An

    2014-01-01

    environments can establish in nonlocal sites. •We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional...... range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. •We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil...... collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently ‘colder’ soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant...

  5. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  6. Global warming and economic growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonand, Frederic

    2015-01-01

    The macro-economic impacts of climate change and of policies to reduce carbon content should be moderate on a global basis for the planet - a few hundredths of a % of world GDP on an annual basis, but significant for some regions (Asia-Pacific notably). The probability of extreme climatic events justifies with effect from today the implementation of measures that will carry a cost in order to limit global warming. (author)

  7. Atlantic CFC data in CARINA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Steinfeldt

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Water column data of carbon and carbon-relevant parameters have been collected and merged into a new database called CARINA (CARbon IN the Atlantic. In order to provide a consistent data set, all data have been examined for systematic biases and adjusted if necessary (secondary quality control (QC. The CARINA data set is divided into three regions: the Arctic/Nordic Seas, the Atlantic region and the Southern Ocean. Here we present the CFC data for the Atlantic region, including the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113 as well as carbon tetrachloride (CCl4. The methods applied for the secondary quality control, a crossover analyses, the investigation of CFC ratios in the ocean and the CFC surface saturation are presented. Based on the results, the CFC data of some cruises are adjusted by a certain factor or given a "poor'' quality flag.

  8. Movement of global warming issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Taishi

    2015-01-01

    This paper summarizes the report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and the movement of the global warming issues as seen from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Conference of the Parties: COP) and the policy discussions in Japan. From the Fifth Assessment Report published by IPCC, it shows the following items: (1) increasing trends of greenhouse effect gas emissions during 1970 and 2010, (2) trends in world's greenhouse effect gas emissions according to income segment, and (3) factor analysis of changes in greenhouse effect gas emissions. Next, it takes up the greenhouse gas emission scenario of IPCC, shows the scenario due to temperature rise pattern, and introduces the assumption of emission reduction due to BECCS. Regarding the 2 deg. scenario that has become a hot topic in international negotiations, it describes the reason for difficulties in its implementation. In addition, as the international trends of global warming, it describes the agreement of numerical targets for emissions at COP3 (Kyoto Conference) and the subsequent movements. Finally, it introduces Japan's measures against global warming, as well as the future movement. (A.O.)

  9. Global warming: Economic policy responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornbusch, R.; Poterba, J.M.

    1991-01-01

    This volume contains the proceedings of a conference that brought together economic experts from Europe, the US, Latin America, and Japan to evaluate key issues in the policy debate in global warming. The following issues are at the center of debates on alternative policies to address global warming: scientific evidence on the magnitude of global warming and the extent to which it is due to human activities; availability of economic tools to control the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, and how vigorously should they be applied; and political economy considerations which influence the design of an international program for controlling greenhouse gases. Many perspectives are offered on the approaches to remedying environmental problems that are currently being pursued in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Deforestation in the Amazon is discussed, as well as ways to slow it. Public finance assessments are presented of both the domestic and international policy issues raised by plans to levy a tax on the carbon emissions from various fossil fuels. Nine chapters have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  10. World warms to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mortimer, N.

    1989-01-01

    The greenhouse effect and global warming is a major environmental issue. The nuclear industry has taken this opportunity to promote itself as providing clean energy without implication in either the greenhouse effect or acid rain. However, it is acknowledged that nuclear power does have its own environment concerns. Two questions are posed -does nuclear power contribute to carbon dioxide emissions and can nuclear power provide a realistic long-term solution to global warming? Although nuclear power stations do not emit carbon dioxide, emissions occur during the manufacture of reactor components, the operation of the nuclear fuel cycle and especially, during the mining and processing of the uranium ore. It is estimated that the supply of high grade ores will last only 23 years, beyond that the carbon dioxide emitted during the processing is estimated to be as great as the carbon dioxide emitted from an coal-fired reactor. Fast breeder reactors are dismissed as unable to provide an answer, so it is concluded that nuclear technology has only a very limited role to play in countering global warming.(UK)

  11. Aircraft measurements within a warm conveyor belt during the T-NAWDEX-FALCON campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfler, Andreas; Boettcher, Maxi; Borrmann, Stephan; Busen, Reinhold; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Grams, Christian; Kaufmann, Stefan; Klingebiel, Marcus; Lammen, Yannick; Reutter, Philipp; Rautenhaus, Marc; Schlager, Hans; Sodemann, Harald; Voigt, Christiane; Wernli, Heini

    2013-04-01

    Warm Conveyor Belts (WCBs) are air streams that are highly relevant for the dynamics in the mid-latitudes as they strongly influence the evolution and intensity of northern hemispheric mid-latitude weather systems. For the predictability of cyclones the representation of diabatic processes associated with latent heat release due to phase transitions of water, surface fluxes, or radiative effects are believed to be a limiting factor. Diabatic processes in cyclones strongly depend on the transport of water vapor and are mainly organized and controlled by the coherently ascending WCB air masses. In October 2012 the T-NAWDEX-Falcon (THORPEX-North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign was organized by DLR Oberpfaffenhofen and ETH Zurich. During 9 research flights over Europe in-cloud measurements in WCBs were obtained with the DLR aircraft Falcon. Lagrangian flights were conducted with the aim to measure in the same air mass during different stages of the WCB to quantify the transport of moisture and the net latent heating along WCBs and their importance for forecast errors associated with mid-latitude weather systems. Besides in-situ observations of wind, temperature and humidity to characterize the thermodynamic structure of the WCBs, a set of dropsondes was deployed to gain a complete view on the complex structure of the cyclone. This presentation gives an overview of the three successful IOPs performed during the T-NAWDEX-Falcon campaign. To address forecast uncertainty and to enable flight planning up to four days in advance of the flights novel diagnostics based on deterministic and ensemble prediction NWP data were employed during the campaign. Furthermore a number of different trajectory models were applied for this field experiment. Based on selected flights from one intensive observation period the challenging planning process of Lagrangian matches of flight paths is described and first results are presented.

  12. Primary elements and trace elements in foraminiferal shells - indicators of climatic and oceanographic changes in the northern North Atlantic in the late Quaternary period. Haupt- und Spurenelemente in Foraminiferengehaeusen - Hinweise auf klimatische und ozeanographische Aenderungen im noerdlichen Nordatlantik waehrend des Spaetquartaers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nuernberg, D

    1991-01-01

    Chemical elements in calcitic foraminiferal tests may serve to reconstruct the spatial and temporal variability as well as the thermal history of deep and surface water masses. Multi-element analyses of benthic (Cassidulina spp., C. wuellerstorfi, O. umbonatus, H. elegans, Uvigerina spp.) and planktonic foraminiferal tests (N. pachyderma sin.) performed by microprobe reveal relations between the geochemical composition of foraminiferal tests and oceanographic and climatic parameters: the analysis of magnesium in calcitic foraminiferal tests makes the thermal reconstruction of surface water masses possible. Cadmium and barium as paleoproductivity indicators in bottom and surface water masses may reveal oceanographic changes sediment cores along a transect reaching from the Rockall Plateau in the northeastern North Atlantic to the Fram Street and lying under the influence of the north Atlantic Drift and the Norwegian Current were used to systematically investigate geochemical variations for several glacial/interglacial changes down to oxygen isotope stage 6 (approximately the last 180,000 years). (orig.).

  13. Influences of sediment redistribution on sea-level changes along the U.S. Atlantic margin since the mid-Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Q.; Ferrier, K.; Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-12-01

    The Orangeburg Scarp is a paleo-shoreline formed along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast during the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; 3.3 - 2.9 Ma). The MPWP is a time of interest because it is often cited as an analog for modern climate and thus an important target for understanding sea-level responses to climate change. The present Orangeburg Scarp exhibits 40-meter variations in elevation along its length, implying that it has been warped since its formation, which complicates efforts to infer global ice volume at the MPWP. Previous studies have shown that the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography (DT) on sea level can explain a significant fraction of the observed variability in elevation along the Orangeburg Scarp. Here we build on these studies by using a gravitationally self-consistent ice age sea-level model to compute the effects of sediment loading and unloading on paleo-shoreline elevation since the mid-Pliocene. To constrain the sediment loading history in this region, we present a new compilation of erosion and deposition rates along the U.S. Atlantic margin, from which we generate a range of sediment redistribution scenarios since the MPWP. We simultaneously drive the sea-level model with these sediment redistribution histories and existing ice and dynamic topography histories. Our results show that sediment loading and unloading is capable of warping the elevation of this paleo-shoreline by 20 meters since its formation, similar in magnitude to the contributions from GIA and DT over the same time period. These results demonstrate that sediment redistribution can induce significant perturbations in sea-level markers from the MPWP, and thus accounting for its influence will improve reconstructions of sea level and global ice volume during the MPWP and perhaps other periods of relative ice age warmth.

  14. Air-Sea CO2 fluxes in the Atlantic as measured during boreal spring and autumn

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Ríos

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available A total of fourteen hydrographic cruises from 2000 to 2008 were conducted during the spring and autumn seasons between Spain and the Southern Ocean under the framework of the Spanish research project FICARAM. The underway measurements were processed and analysed to describe the meridional air-sea CO2 fluxes (FCO2 in the covered sector of the Atlantic Ocean. The data has been grouped into different biogeochemical oceanographic provinces based on thermohaline characteristics. The spatial and temporal distributions of FCO2 followed expected distributions and annual trends reproducing the recent climatological ΔfCO2 estimations with a mean difference of −3 ± 18 μatm (Takahashi et al., 2009. The reduction in the CO2 saturation along the meridional FICARAM cruises represented an increase of 0.02 ± 0.14 mol m−2 yr−1 in the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. The subtropical waters in both Hemispheres acted as a sink of atmospheric CO2 during the successive spring seasons and as a source in autumn. The coarse reduction of the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2 observed in the North Atlantic Ocean was linked to conditions of negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that prevailed during the FICARAM period. Surface waters in the North Equatorial Counter Current revealed a significant long-term decrease of sea surface salinity of −0.16 ± 0.01 yr−1 coinciding with a declination of −3.5 ± 0.9 μatm yr−1 in the air–sea disequilibrium of CO2 fugacity and a rise of oceanic CO2 uptake of −0.09 ± 0.03 mol m−2 yr−1. The largest CO2 source was located in the equatorial upwelling system. These tropical waters that reached emissions of 0.7 ± 0.5 and 1.0 ± 0.7 mol m−2 y−1 in spring and autumn, respectively, showed an interannual warming of 0.11 ± 0.03 °C yr−1 and a wind speed decrease of −0.58 ± 0.14 m s−1 yr−1 in spring cruises which suggest the weakening of upwelling events associated with warm El Niño – Southern

  15. Global Warming: The Balance of Evidence and Its Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Keller

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications. With the recent publication of the Third Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are: 1-Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.? 2-Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period? 3-Is not the sun’s increasing activity the cause of most of the warming? 4-Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic? 5-Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds affirmative answers to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleoclimates, and why the 20th century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.Finally, there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message, and the author comments on his 2-year email discussions with many of the world’s most outspoken critics of the

  16. Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to long-term warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert T. Barrett

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that Arctic plants typically respond to warming with increased growth and reproductive effort and accelerated phenology, and that the magnitude of these responses is likely to change over time. We investigated the effects of long-term experimental warming on plant growth (leaf length and reproduction (inflorescence height, reproductive phenology and reproductive effort using 17–19 years of measurements collected as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX at sites near Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska. During the study period, linear regressions indicated non-significant tendencies towards warming air temperatures at our study sites. Results of our meta-analyses on the effect size of experimental warming (calculated as Hedges’ d indicated species generally responded to warming by increasing inflorescence height, increasing leaf length and flowering earlier, while reproductive effort did not respond consistently. Using weighted least-squares regressions on effect sizes, we found a significant trend towards dampened response to experimental warming over time for reproductive phenology. This tendency was consistent, though non-significant, across all traits. A separate analysis revealed significant trends towards reduced responses to experimental warming during warmer summers for all traits. We therefore propose that tendencies towards dampened plant responses to experimental warming over time are the result of regional warming. These results show that Arctic plants are capable of sustained responses to warming over long periods of time but also suggest that, as the region continues to warm, factors such as nutrient availability, competition and herbivory will become more limiting to plant growth and reproduction than temperature.

  17. Exceptional Arctic warmth of early winter 2016 and attribution to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Macias-Fauria, Marc; King, Andrew; Uhe, Peter; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; Karoly, David; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2017-04-01

    have risen on the North Pole, modulated by decadal North Atlantic variability. For all phases of this variability, a warm event like the one of this winter would have been extremely unlikely in the climate of a century ago. Both sets of models also give very comparable results and show that the bulk of the arctic temperature increase is due to anthropogenic emissions. This also holds for the warm extremes caused by the type of circulation present in the early winter of 2016.

  18. Warm Dense Matter: An Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalantar, D H; Lee, R W; Molitoris, J D

    2004-01-01

    This document provides a summary of the ''LLNL Workshop on Extreme States of Materials: Warm Dense Matter to NIF'' which was held on 20, 21, and 22 February 2002 at the Wente Conference Center in Livermore, CA. The warm dense matter regime, the transitional phase space region between cold material and hot plasma, is presently poorly understood. The drive to understand the nature of matter in this regime is sparking scientific activity worldwide. In addition to pure scientific interest, finite temperature dense matter occurs in the regimes of interest to the SSMP (Stockpile Stewardship Materials Program). So that obtaining a better understanding of WDM is important to performing effective experiments at, e.g., NIF, a primary mission of LLNL. At this workshop we examined current experimental and theoretical work performed at, and in conjunction with, LLNL to focus future activities and define our role in this rapidly emerging research area. On the experimental front LLNL plays a leading role in three of the five relevant areas and has the opportunity to become a major player in the other two. Discussion at the workshop indicated that the path forward for the experimental efforts at LLNL were two fold: First, we are doing reasonable baseline work at SPLs, HE, and High Energy Lasers with more effort encouraged. Second, we need to plan effectively for the next evolution in large scale facilities, both laser (NIF) and Light/Beam sources (LCLS/TESLA and GSI) Theoretically, LLNL has major research advantages in areas as diverse as the thermochemical approach to warm dense matter equations of state to first principles molecular dynamics simulations. However, it was clear that there is much work to be done theoretically to understand warm dense matter. Further, there is a need for a close collaboration between the generation of verifiable experimental data that can provide benchmarks of both the experimental techniques and the theoretical capabilities. The conclusion of this

  19. How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

    2017-03-11

    Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

  20. Impact and prevention on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Heon Ryeol

    2003-11-01

    This book deals with impact and prevention on global warming with eight chapters, which introduce the change after the earth was born and natural environment, how is global atmospheric environment under the control of radiant energy? What does global warming look with the earth history like? What's the status of global warming so far? How does climate change happen? What is the impact by global warming and climate change and for preservation of global environment of 21 century with consumption of energy, measure and prospect on global warming. It has reference, index and three appendixes.

  1. Giant boulders and Last Interglacial storm intensity in the North Atlantic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Casella, E.; Harris, D.L.; Lorscheid, T; Nandasena, N.A.K.; Dyer, B.; Sandstrom, M.R.; Stocchi, P.; D’Andrea, W.J.; Raymo, M.E.

    2017-01-01

    As global climate warms and sea level rises, coastal areas will be subject to more frequent extreme flooding and hurricanes. Geologic evidence for extreme coastal storms during past warm periods has the potential to provide fundamental insights into their future intensity. Recent studies argue that

  2. Methods of patient warming during abdominal surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Shao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Keeping abdominal surgery patients warm is common and warming methods are needed in power outages during natural disasters. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of low-cost, low-power warming methods for maintaining normothermia in abdominal surgery patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 160 scheduled for elective abdominal surgery were included in this prospective clinical study. Five warming methods were applied: heated blood transfusion/fluid infusion vs. unheated; wrapping patients vs. not wrapping; applying moist dressings, heated or not; surgical field rinse heated or not; and applying heating blankets or not. Patients' nasopharyngeal and rectal temperatures were recorded to evaluate warming efficacy. Significant differences were found in mean temperatures of warmed patients compared to those not warmed. RESULTS: When we compared temperatures of abdominal surgery patient groups receiving three specific warming methods with temperatures of control groups not receiving these methods, significant differences were revealed in temperatures maintained during the surgeries between the warmed groups and controls. DISCUSSION: The value of maintaining normothermia in patients undergoing abdominal surgery under general anesthesia is accepted. Three effective economical and practically applicable warming methods are combined body wrapping and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and heating blanket; combined body wrapping, heated moist dressings, and warmed surgical rinse fluid, with or without heating blanket. These methods are practically applicable when low-cost method is indeed needed.

  3. Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

    2018-02-01

    Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

  4. Global warming-setting the stages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Most of us have heard or read about global warming. However, the messages we receive are often in conflict, raising more questions than answer. Is global warming a good or a bad thing? has it already started or is it part of our future? Are we, or are we not doing anything about it? Should we be concerned? This primer on Global Warming is designed to clear up some of this confusion by providing basic scientific information on global warming issue. It is clear that there is still much to learn about global warming. However, it is also clear that there is a lot that we already know - and that dose provide cause for concern. We must understand the global warming issue if we are to make wise decisions and take responsible actions in response to the challenges and opportunities posed by global warming. Chapter 1 of 'the primer on global Warming' set the stage with a brief overview of science of global warming within the context of climate change. In addition, it introduces the specific issues that surround the global warming problem. As far as the science of global warming is concerned the following questions are discussed. What is global climate? Is climate change natural? What causes climate to vary on a global scale? How does the composition of the atmosphere relate to climate change. but there are also certain issues discussed here which surround the global warming such as: If climate varies naturally, why is there a concern about 'global warming'? What are the potential consequences of 'global warning'. What human activities contribute to 'global warming'. (Author)

  5. Solar wind: A possible factor driving the interannual sea surface temperature tripolar mode over North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Ziniu; Li, Delin

    2016-06-01

    The effect of solar wind (SW) on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal winter is examined through an analysis of observational data during 1964-2013. The North Atlantic SSTs show a pronounced meridional tripolar pattern in response to solar wind speed (SWS) variations. This pattern is broadly similar to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of interannual variations in the wintertime SSTs over North Atlantic. The time series of this leading EOF mode of SST shows a significant interannual period, which is the same as that of wintertime SWS. This response also appears as a compact north-south seesaw of sea level pressure and a vertical tripolar structure of zonal wind, which simultaneously resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the overlying atmosphere. As compared with the typical low SWS winters, during the typical high SWS winters, the stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) is evidently enhanced and extends from the stratosphere to the troposphere, even down to the North Atlantic Ocean surface. Notably, the North Atlantic Ocean is an exclusive region in which the SW signal spreads downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Thus, it seems that the SW is a possible factor for this North Atlantic SST tripolar mode. The dynamical process of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, together with the global atmospheric electric circuit-cloud microphysical process, probably accounts for the particular downward propagation of the SW signal.

  6. A new daily observational record from Grytviken, South Georgia: exploring 20th century extremes in the South Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Z.; Turney, C. S.; Allan, R.; Colwell, S.; Kelly, G.; Lister, D.; Jones, P. D.; Beswick, M.; Alexander, L. V.; Lippmann, T.; Herold, N.; Jones, R. T.

    2017-12-01

    Although recent work has highlighted a host of significant late 20th century environmental changes across the mid to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the sparse nature of observational records limits our ability to place these changes in the context of long-term (multi-decadal and centennial) variability. As a result, investigating the impact of anthropogenic forcing on climate modes of variability and ecosystems is particularly challenging. Sub-Antarctic islands are particularly important in this regard, straddling major ocean and atmospheric boundaries and offering the potential to develop highly resolved records of change. In 1905, a whaling and meteorological station was established at Grytviken on Sub-Antarctic South Georgia in the South Atlantic (54°S) providing near-continuous observations through to present day. Although South Georgia lies in a strategic location for understanding Southern Ocean atmosphere-ocean dynamics, only a monthly resolved dataset has until now been available. Here we report a near continuous daily observational record from Grytviken for temperature and precipitation, which we compare to different datasets (including Twentieth Century Reanalysis; 20CR version 2c). A warming trend over the 20th century is observed in mean daily temperature at Grytviken with an average rate of temperature rise of 0.14°C per decade over the period 1907-2016 (p<0.0001). We find a significant trend towards increasingly warmer daytime extremes commencing from the mid-20th century accompanied by warmer night-time temperatures. Analysis of these data, and reanalysis products, suggest a realignment of synoptic conditions across the mid to high-latitudes, with a link between increasing temperature trends and atmospheric circulation dominated by stronger westerly airflow, resulting in significant foehn-related warming.

  7. The effects of sea surface temperature anomalies on oceanic coral reef systems in the southwestern tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, B. P.; Costa, M. B. S. F.; Coxey, M. S.; Gaspar, A. L. B.; Veleda, D.; Araujo, M.

    2013-06-01

    In 2010, high sea surface temperatures that were recorded in several parts of the world and caused coral bleaching and coral mortality were also recorded in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, between latitudes 0°S and 8°S. This paper reports on coral bleaching and diseases in Rocas Atoll and Fernando de Noronha archipelago and examines their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies recorded by PIRATA buoys located at 8°S30°W, 0°S35°W, and 0°S23°W. Adjusted satellite data were used to derive SST climatological means at buoy sites and to derive anomalies at reef sites. The whole region was affected by the elevated temperature anomaly that persisted through 2010, reaching 1.67 °C above average at reef sites and 1.83 °C above average at buoys sites. A significant positive relationship was found between the percentage of coral bleaching that was observed on reef formations and the corresponding HotSpot SST anomaly recorded by both satellite and buoys. These results indicate that the warming observed in the ocean waters was followed by a warming at the reefs. The percentage of bleached corals persisting after the subsidence of the thermal stress, and disease prevalence increased through 2010, after two periods of thermal stress. The in situ temperature anomaly observed during the 2009-2010 El Niño event was equivalent to the anomaly observed during the 1997-1998 El Niño event, explaining similar bleaching intensity. Continued monitoring efforts are necessary to further assess the relationship between bleaching severity and PIRATA SST anomalies and improve the use of this new dataset in future regional bleaching predictions.

  8. Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.

  9. US demilitarization and global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyes, A.G.; Liston-Heyes, C.; Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, London

    1993-01-01

    In the paper input-output methods are used to generate ballpark empirical estimates of the implications for global warming of the projected demilitarization of the US federal budget. The impact is found to be qualitatively ambiguous, and highly sensitive to the manner in which the funds saved are distributed. The effect is adverse where the budgetary savings are used to fund economy-wide cuts in personal taxation and/or deficit reduction. In other cases the effect may be neutral or beneficial. (author)

  10. Functional responses of North Atlantic fish eggs to increasing temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsoukali, Stavroula; Visser, Andre; MacKenzie, Brian

    2016-01-01

    -days and survival of fish eggs from 32 populations of 17 species in the North Atlantic to different temperatures in order to determine potential consequences of global warming for these species. The response of development time exhibited a similar decreasing trend with respect to temperature across species....... There was an overall decrease, across species, in an index of thermal requirement (cumulative degree-days) for egg development with increasing temperature. Within an empirically derived optimal thermal range for egg survival, the thermal requirement was more variable in species adapted to cold waters compared...... to species adapted to warmer waters. Moreover, the sensitivity of survival of eggs from different species to increases in temperature differed, reflecting a pattern of sensitivity along a stenotherm-eurytherm gradient of vulnerability to temperature among species. The results quantify physiological effects...

  11. Increasing magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the central-eastern Atlantic over the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, L. R.; Balaguru, K.; Foltz, G. R.

    2017-12-01

    During the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, several hurricanes underwent rapid intensification (RI) in the central-eastern Atlantic. This motivates an analysis of trends in the strength of hurricane RI during the 30-year post-satellite period of 1986-2015. Our results show that in the eastern tropical Atlantic, to the east of 60W, the mean RI magnitude averaged during 2001-2015 was 3.8 kt per 24 hr higher than during 1986-2000. However, in the western tropical Atlantic, to the west of 60W, changes in RI magnitude over the same period were not statistically significant. We examined the large-scale environment to understand the causes behind these changes in RI magnitude and found that various oceanic and atmospheric parameters that play an important role in RI changed favorably in the eastern tropical Atlantic. More specifically, changes in SST, Potential Intensity, upper-ocean heat content, wind shear, relative humidity and upper-level divergence enhanced the ability for hurricanes to undergo RI in the eastern tropical Atlantic. In contrast, changes in the same factors are inconsistent in the western tropical Atlantic. While changes in SST and Potential Intensity were positive, changes in upper-ocean heat content, wind shear and upper-level divergence were either insignificant or unfavorable for RI. Finally, we examined the potential role of various climate phenomena, which are well-known to impact Atlantic hurricane activity, in causing the changes in the large-scale environment. Our analysis reveals that changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation over the 30-year period are predominantly responsible. These results provide important aspects of the large-scale context to understand the Atlantic hurricane season of 2017.

  12. Impacts of radiation management techniques on the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Helge Otterå, Odd; Tjiputra, Jerry; Muri, Helene; Grini, Alf; Schulz, Michael

    2017-04-01

    The effectiveness of various climate engineering techniques in limiting the global warming signal to reasonable levels has been the topic of state-of-the-art research on climate change. Using an Earth system model, we show that these techniques have the potential to bring down the high CO2 concentration climate in RCP8.5 to a moderate climate similar to RCP4.5 in terms of global temperature. Nevertheless, their influence on the regional aspects of atmospheric circulation is not clear. The regional circulation patterns in the atmosphere are largely characterized by the natural variability modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we assess the impacts of three radiation managment techniques, namely, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), Marine Sky Brightening (MSB) and Cirrus Cloud Thinning (CCT), on the structure and features of the NAO. The results indicate an east-northeastward shift as well as intensification of the NAO spatial pattern in the global warming scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with the signal being most intense in the latter. The climate engineering forcings when applied to the RCP8.5 case tend to reduce the strength of the NAO with little impact on its position. The CCT case appears to have the maximum effect on the NAO signal. The patterns of cloud radiative forcing, expressed as the difference between net radiative forcing at TOA under average conditions and clear sky conditions, reveal a northeastward shift of the radiative heating in the north Atlantic region. This implies a possible link between the changes in the NAO signal and the cloud radiative forcing.

  13. 76 FR 13583 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Quotas and Atlantic Tuna Fisheries...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-14

    ... address concerns raised in a recent decision by a NOAA Administrative Law Judge (see Atlantic Tunas Transfer at Sea section for case reference). NMFS has prepared a draft Environmental Assessment (EA... subtraction of these allocations directly from the TAC, the recommendation allocates the remainder to the UK...

  14. Global warming potential of pavements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santero, Nicholas J [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 407 McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States); Horvath, Arpad, E-mail: njsantero@cal.berkeley.ed, E-mail: horvath@ce.berkeley.ed [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 215B McLaughlin Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-1712 (United States)

    2009-09-15

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  15. Global warming potential of pavements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad

    2009-01-01

    Pavements comprise an essential and vast infrastructure system supporting our transportation network, yet their impact on the environment is largely unquantified. Previous life-cycle assessments have only included a limited number of the applicable life-cycle components in their analysis. This research expands the current view to include eight different components: materials extraction and production, transportation, onsite equipment, traffic delay, carbonation, lighting, albedo, and rolling resistance. Using global warming potential as the environmental indicator, ranges of potential impact for each component are calculated and compared based on the information uncovered in the existing research. The relative impacts between components are found to be orders of magnitude different in some cases. Context-related factors, such as traffic level and location, are also important elements affecting the impacts of a given component. A strategic method for lowering the global warming potential of a pavement is developed based on the concept that environmental performance is improved most effectively by focusing on components with high impact potentials. This system takes advantage of the fact that small changes in high-impact components will have more effect than large changes in low-impact components.

  16. Economic approaches to greenhouse warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nordhaus, W.D.

    1991-01-01

    Global environmental problems raise a host of major policy questions. They are all scientifically complex and controversial, and no scientific consensus is likely to emerge until irreversible decisions have been made. The costs and benefits of these changes transcend national boundaries, and nations, which cannot appropriate the global costs and benefits of such changes, are unlikely to be able or willing to make efficient decisions on how to combat these global externalities. In addition, these concerns sometimes have impacts over hundreds of years and thereby strain political decision making, which often functions effectively only when the crisis is at hand. This chapter considers some of the economic issues involved in deciding how to react to the threat of global warming. The author first reviews the theory and evidence on the greenhouse effect. He then presents evidence on the impacts of greenhouse warming, the costs of stabilizing climate, and the kinds of adaptations that might be available. In the final section, he reviews the policy initiatives that nations might follow in the near term

  17. Warming increases plant biomass and reduces diversity across continents, latitudes, and species migration scenarios in experimental wetland communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Andrew H; Jensen, Kai; Schönfeldt, Marisa

    2014-03-01

    Atmospheric warming may influence plant productivity and diversity and induce poleward migration of species, altering communities across latitudes. Complicating the picture is that communities from different continents deviate in evolutionary histories, which may modify responses to warming and migration. We used experimental wetland plant communities grown from seed banks as model systems to determine whether effects of warming on biomass production and species richness are consistent across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios. We collected soil samples from each of three tidal freshwater marshes in estuaries at three latitudes (north, middle, south) on the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. In one experiment, we exposed soil seed bank communities from each latitude and continent to ambient and elevated (+2.8 °C) temperatures in the greenhouse. In a second experiment, soil samples were mixed either within each estuary (limited migration) or among estuaries from different latitudes in each continent (complete migration). Seed bank communities of these migration scenarios were also exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures and contrasted with a no-migration treatment. In the first experiment, warming overall increased biomass (+16%) and decreased species richness (-14%) across latitudes in Europe and North America. Species richness and evenness of south-latitude communities were less affected by warming than those of middle and north latitudes. In the second experiment, warming also stimulated biomass and lowered species richness. In addition, complete migration led to increased species richness (+60% in North America, + 100% in Europe), but this higher diversity did not translate into increased biomass. Species responded idiosyncratically to warming, but Lythrum salicaria and Bidens sp. increased significantly in response to warming in both continents. These results reveal for the first time consistent impacts of warming on biomass and

  18. Evidence for the role of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the ocean heat uptake in hiatus prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasini, Antonello; Triacca, Umberto; Attanasio, Alessandro

    2017-08-01

    The recent hiatus in global temperature at the surface has been analysed by several studies, mainly using global climate models. The common accepted picture is that since the late 1990s, the increase in anthropogenic radiative forcings has been counterbalanced by other factors, e.g., a decrease in natural forcings, augmented ocean heat storage and negative phases of ocean-atmosphere-coupled oscillation patterns. Here, simple vector autoregressive models are used for forecasting the temperature hiatus in the period 2001-2014. This gives new insight into the problem of understanding the ocean contribution (in terms of heat uptake and atmosphere-ocean-coupled oscillations) to the appearance of this recent hiatus. In particular, considering data about the ocean heat content until a depth of 700 m and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is necessary for correctly forecasting the hiatus, so catching both trend and interannual variability. Our models also show that the ocean heat uptake is substantially driven by the natural component of the total radiative forcing at a decadal time scale, confining the importance of the anthropogenic influences to a longer range warming of the ocean.

  19. Cold-climate slope deposits and landscape modifications of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain, Eastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Wayne L.; Dejong, B.D.

    2011-01-01

    The effects of Pleistocene cold-climate geomorphology are distributed across the weathered and eroded Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain uplands from the Wisconsinan terminal moraine south to Tidewater Virginia. Cold-climate deposits and landscape modifications are superimposed on antecedent landscapes of old, weathered Neogene upland gravels and Pleistocene marine terraces that had been built during warm periods and sea-level highstands. In New Jersey, sequences of surficial deposits define a long history of repeating climate change events. To the south across the Delmarva Peninsula and southern Maryland, most antecedent topography has been obscured by Late Pleistocene surficial deposits. These are spatially variable and are collectively described as a cold-climate alloformation. The cold-climate alloformation includes time-transgressive details of climate deterioration from at least marine isotope stage (MIS) 4 through the end of MIS 2. Some deposits and landforms within the alloformation may be as young as the Younger Dryas. Southwards along the trend of the Potomac River, these deposits and their climatic affinities become diffused. In Virginia, a continuum of erosion and surficial deposits appears to be the product of ‘normal’ temperate, climate-forced processes. The cold-climate alloformation and more temperate deposits in Virginia are being partly covered by Holocene alluvium and bay mud.

  20. Biomass smoke from southern Africa can significantly enhance the brightness of stratocumulus over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zheng; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Zhibo; Zhao, Chun; Meyer, Kerry; Rajapakshe, Chamara; Wu, Chenglai; Yang, Zhifeng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2018-03-01

    Marine stratocumulus clouds cover nearly one-quarter of the ocean surface and thus play an extremely important role in determining the global radiative balance. The semipermanent marine stratocumulus deck over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean is of particular interest, because of its interactions with seasonal biomass burning aerosols that are emitted in southern Africa. Understanding the impacts of biomass burning aerosols on stratocumulus clouds and the implications for regional and global radiative balance is still very limited. Previous studies have focused on assessing the magnitude of the warming caused by solar scattering and absorption by biomass burning aerosols over stratocumulus (the direct radiative effect) or cloud adjustments to the direct radiative effect (the semidirect effect). Here, using a nested modeling approach in conjunction with observations from multiple satellites, we demonstrate that cloud condensation nuclei activated from biomass burning aerosols entrained into the stratocumulus (the microphysical effect) can play a dominant role in determining the total radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere, compared with their direct and semidirect radiative effects. Biomass burning aerosols over the region and period with heavy loadings can cause a substantial cooling (daily mean ‑8.05 W m‑2), primarily as a result of clouds brightening by reducing the cloud droplet size (the Twomey effect) and secondarily through modulating the diurnal cycle of cloud liquid water path and coverage (the cloud lifetime effect). Our results highlight the importance of realistically representing the interactions of stratocumulus with biomass burning aerosols in global climate models in this region.

  1. Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hansi K. A.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tardif, Robert; Emile-Geay, Julien; Noone, David C.

    2018-02-01

    The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

  2. Optimal design of a general warm standby system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Won Young; Cha, Ji Hwan

    2010-01-01

    Redundancy or standby is a technique that has been widely applied to improving system reliability and availability in the stage of system design. In this paper, we consider a standby system with two units in which the first unit (unit 1) starts its operation under active state and the other unit (unit 2) is under cold standby state at the starting point. After a specified time s (switching time), the state of unit 2 is changed to warm standby state and, as soon as the operating unit 1 fails, the state of unit 2 is changed to active state. If unit 1 fails before time s, the system fails. Units can fail at both active and warm standby states. A general method for modeling the standby system is adopted and system performance measures (system reliability and mean life) based on the proposed model are derived. Three models - a perfect switching model and two imperfect switching models - are considered in this paper. Two imperfect switching models include an imperfect switching probability and a preliminary warm-up period which is required for the change from cold standby state to warm standby state. We consider the problem of determining the optimal switching time which maximizes the expected system life and related allocation problem is also discussed. Some numerical examples are studied.

  3. Interdecadal Trichodesmium variability in cold North Atlantic waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero-Calle, Sara; Del Castillo, Carlos E.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Dezfuli, Amin; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Johns, David G.

    2016-11-01

    Studies of the nitrogen cycle in the ocean generally assume that the distribution of the marine diazotroph, Trichodesmium, is restricted to warm, tropical, and subtropical oligotrophic waters. Here we show evidence that Trichodesmium are widely distributed in the North Atlantic. We report an approximately fivefold increase during the 1980s and 1990s in Trichodesmium presence near the British Isles with respect to the average over the last 50 years. A potential explanation is an increase in the Saharan dust source starting in the 1980s, coupled with changes in North Atlantic winds that opened a pathway for dust transport. Results from a coarse-resolution model in which winds vary but iron deposition is climatologically fixed suggest frequent nitrogen limitation in the region and reversals of the Portugal current, but it does not simulate the observed changes in Trichodesmium. Our results suggest that Trichodesmium may be capable of growth at temperatures below 20°C and challenge assumptions about their latitudinal distribution. Therefore, we need to reevaluate assumptions about the temperature limitations of Trichodesmium and the dinitrogen (N2) fixation capabilities of extratropical strains, which may have important implications for the global nitrogen budget.

  4. North Atlantic Origin of Interdecadal variability of Siberian High

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seon-Hwa; Sung, Mi-Kyung; Kim, Baek-Min

    2017-04-01

    We suggest that the changes in the mean atmospheric circulation structure in the North Atlantic Ocean upstream region of Eurasian continent play an important role in the interdecadal variability of Siberian High (SH) through the modulation of Ural blocking frequency. Previous studies suggested that the interdecadal variability of SH is partly explained by the Arctic Oscillation. However, in this study, we emphasize the role of 'Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia (WACE)', which is the second mode of winter surface air temperature variability over Eurasia. We show that the correlation between SH and WACE is high in general compared to that between SH and AO. However, the correlation between SH and WACE does not always exhibit high constant value. It shows a distinctive interdecadal fluctuation in the correlation. We found that this fluctuation in the correlation is due to the interdecadal fluctuation of the continental trough over the North Atlantic and the resultant strengthening of in-situ atmospheric baroclinicity. This accompanies changes in the transient vorticity flux divergence which leads to the downstream wave development and anomalous anticyclonic flow near Ural region. Obviously, the existence of anticyclonic flow over Ural region helps more frequent occurrence of Ural blocking and it is shown that this condition favors positive WACE event, which links to an intensified SH.

  5. Late Holocene Radiocarbon Variability in Northwest Atlantic Slope Waters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherwood, O; Edinger, E; Guilderson, T P; Ghaleb, B; Risk, M J; Scott, D B

    2008-08-15

    Deep-sea gorgonian corals secrete a 2-part skeleton of calcite, derived from dissolved inorganic carbon at depth, and gorgonin, derived from recently fixed and exported particulate organic matter. Radiocarbon contents of the calcite and gorgonin provide direct measures of seawater radiocarbon at depth and in the overlying surface waters, respectively. Using specimens collected from Northwest Atlantic slope waters, we generated radiocarbon records for surface and upper intermediate water layers spanning the pre- and post bomb-{sup 14}C eras. In Labrador Slope Water (LSW), convective mixing homogenizes the pre-bomb {Delta}{sup 14}C signature (-67 {+-} 4{per_thousand}) to at least 1000 m depth. Surface water bomb-{sup 14}C signals were lagged and damped (peaking at {approx} +45{per_thousand} in the early 1980s) relative to other regions of the northwest Atlantic, and intermediate water signals were damped further. Off southwest Nova Scotia, the vertical gradient in {Delta}{sup 14}C is much stronger. In surface water, pre-bomb {Delta}{sup 14}C averaged -75 {+-} 5{per_thousand}. At 250-475 m depth, prebomb {Delta}{sup 14}C oscillated quasi-decadally between -80 and -100{per_thousand}, likely reflecting interannual variability in the presence of Labrador Slope Water vs. Warm Slope Water (WSW). Finally, subfossil corals reveal no systematic changes in vertical {Delta}{sup 14}C gradients over the last 1200 years.

  6. [The innovation of warm disease theory in the Ming Dynasty before Wen yi lun On Pestilence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhi-bin

    2008-10-01

    Some doctors of the Ming dynasty raised subversive doubts against the traditional viewpoints of "exogenous cold disease is warm-heat" before the emergence of Wen yi lun (On Pestilence), holding that warm-heat disease "is contracted in different seasons instead of being transformed from cold to warm and/or heat". The conception of the separation of warm-heat disease and exogenous cold disease had changed from obscure to clear. As the idea became clear, the recognition on the new affection of warm, heat, summer-heat, pestilent pathogen was formed, and the idea that the pathogens of summer-heat and warm entered the human body through the mouth and nostrils was put forward. The six-channel syndrome differentiation of warm disease and the five sweat-resolving methods in pestilence raised by the doctors of this period are the aspects of the differential diagnosis of syndrome and treatment in warm diseases, and deserve to be paid attention to.

  7. Late Quaternary Palaeoceanographic Changes in Sea Surface Conditions in the Tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischel, Andrea; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Kuijpers, Antoon; Nürnberg, Dirk

    2013-04-01

    Palaeoceanographic changes and the variability in surface water mass hydrography are reconstructed in order to track tropical ocean and climate variability and inter-hemispheric heat exchange through the last 42,000 year BP. Our studies are based on the relative abundance of planktonic foraminifera combined with sea surface temperature approximation based Mg/Ca measurements, XRF scanning and stable oxygen isotope analyses in a 5 m long gravity core Ga307-Win-12GC (17°50.80N, 64°48.7290W), retrieved in the Virgin Island Basin in approx. 3,960 m water depth. The Virgin Island Basin is the deepest part of the Anegada-Jungfern Passage in the northeast Caribbean, one of the most important pathways for water mass exchange between the Central Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. Due to its bathymetry surface waters as well as deep water mass strata from the northern and southern hemisphere enter the basin, comprising Caribbean Surface Water (CSW), Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) and North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). The planktonic foraminiferal assemblage suggests rather stable sea-surface conditions during the Holocene in the NE Caribbean. However, major changes in the hydrographic setting could be identified within the glacial period. During the glacial period, clear millennial-scale variability in sea-surface temperature and productivity are present. Fluctuations in the relative abundance of Globigerinoides ruber in the sediment core may be correlated to Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the northern North Atlantic. Furthermore an increase in relative abundance of Globorotalia rubescens occurs synchronous with ice rafted debris layers described from the North Atlantic. The faunal changes in the tropical Atlantic may thus be correlated to major climate changes in the North Atlantic, mainly D-O cyclicity as well as Heinrich events. Thus, the synchronous change in water mass distribution and hydrographic cyclicity suggests a possible linkage

  8. Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

    2017-03-01

    Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

  9. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  10. Coral mucus fuels the sponge loop in warm- and cold-water coral reef ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rix, Laura; de Goeij, Jasper M; Mueller, Christina E; Struck, Ulrich; Middelburg, Jack J; van Duyl, Fleur C; Al-Horani, Fuad A; Wild, Christian; Naumann, Malik S; van Oevelen, Dick

    2016-01-07

    Shallow warm-water and deep-sea cold-water corals engineer the coral reef framework and fertilize reef communities by releasing coral mucus, a source of reef dissolved organic matter (DOM). By transforming DOM into particulate detritus, sponges play a key role in transferring the energy and nutrients in DOM to higher trophic levels on Caribbean reefs via the so-called sponge loop. Coral mucus may be a major DOM source for the sponge loop, but mucus uptake by sponges has not been demonstrated. Here we used laboratory stable isotope tracer experiments to show the transfer of coral mucus into the bulk tissue and phospholipid fatty acids of the warm-water sponge Mycale fistulifera and cold-water sponge Hymedesmia coriacea, demonstrating a direct trophic link between corals and reef sponges. Furthermore, 21-40% of the mucus carbon and 32-39% of the nitrogen assimilated by the sponges was subsequently released as detritus, confirming a sponge loop on Red Sea warm-water and north Atlantic cold-water coral reefs. The presence of a sponge loop in two vastly different reef environments suggests it is a ubiquitous feature of reef ecosystems contributing to the high biogeochemical cycling that may enable coral reefs to thrive in nutrient-limited (warm-water) and energy-limited (cold-water) environments.

  11. Phylogeographic differentiation versus transcriptomic adaptation to warm temperatures in Zostera marina, a globally important seagrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jueterbock, A; Franssen, S U; Bergmann, N; Gu, J; Coyer, J A; Reusch, T B H; Bornberg-Bauer, E; Olsen, J L

    2016-11-01

    Populations distributed across a broad thermal cline are instrumental in addressing adaptation to increasing temperatures under global warming. Using a space-for-time substitution design, we tested for parallel adaptation to warm temperatures along two independent thermal clines in Zostera marina, the most widely distributed seagrass in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. A North-South pair of populations was sampled along the European and North American coasts and exposed to a simulated heatwave in a common-garden mesocosm. Transcriptomic responses under control, heat stress and recovery were recorded in 99 RNAseq libraries with ~13 000 uniquely annotated, expressed genes. We corrected for phylogenetic differentiation among populations to discriminate neutral from adaptive differentiation. The two southern populations recovered faster from heat stress and showed parallel transcriptomic differentiation, as compared with northern populations. Among 2389 differentially expressed genes, 21 exceeded neutral expectations and were likely involved in parallel adaptation to warm temperatures. However, the strongest differentiation following phylogenetic correction was between the three Atlantic populations and the Mediterranean population with 128 of 4711 differentially expressed genes exceeding neutral expectations. Although adaptation to warm temperatures is expected to reduce sensitivity to heatwaves, the continued resistance of seagrass to further anthropogenic stresses may be impaired by heat-induced downregulation of genes related to photosynthesis, pathogen defence and stress tolerance. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  13. The physics and history of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yongyun

    2012-01-01

    Global warming is not only a hot research area in atmospheric sciences and even all Earth sciences but is also a controversial topic in the international community. The purpose of this paper is not to clarify these controversies, but instead, to address the physical basis on which our understanding of global warming is founded, and to briefly review the nearly 200-year history of global warming sciences. We hope the paper will help readers, who have no background in the atmospheric and climate sciences, understand scientific issues of global warming. (author)

  14. The Interplay of Internal and Forced Modes of Hadley Cell Expansion: Lessons from the Global Warming Hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaya, D. J.; Siler, N.; Xie, S. P.; Miller, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells show a robust shift poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we us a joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of Hadley Cell variability: (i) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (ii) an internal mode, which identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation with a global climate model. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the TOA radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is found to be essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

  15. Analysis of the piston ring/liner oil film development during warm-up for an SI-engine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frølund, Kent; Schramm, Jesper; Tian, T.

    2001-01-01

    A one-dimensional ring-pack lubrication model developed at MIT is applied to simulate the oil film behavior during the warm-up period of a Kohler spark ignition engine. This is done by making assumptions for the evolution of the ail temperatures during warm-up and that the oil control ring during...

  16. Provenance-specific growth responses to drought and air warming in three European oak species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arend, Matthias; Kuster, Thomas; Gunthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias

    2011-03-15

    This study evaluated oak growth responses to air warming through research conducted with species coming from climatically different sites submitted to differing climates including periodic drought and air warming. Results showed different responses to drought and air warming as an adaptation to the conditions, and differences in growth response from one provenance to another were found but local climate factors were not responsible. This study highlighted that provenance was important to growth responses and it will have to be taken into account for regeneration of oaks in a changed climate if these results are confirmed.

  17. Half-time re-warm up increases performance capacity in male elite soccer players

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edholm, P; Krustrup, Peter; Randers, Morten Bredsgaard

    2015-01-01

    This study investigated the acute effects of a half-time re-warm up on performance and movement patterns in soccer match play. Using a crossover design, 22 professional male players performed traditional passive rest (CON) or a low-intensity re-warm up (RW) during the half-time period of two soccer.......01). Moreover, RW had more possession of the ball in the beginning of the second half. In conclusion, traditional passive half-time rest leads to impaired sprint and jump performance during the initial phase of the second half in professional soccer players whereas a re-warm up effectively attenuates...

  18. The future of the northeast Atlantic benthic flora in a high CO2 world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Juliet; Williamson, Christopher J; Smale, Dan A; Kamenos, Nicholas A; Mieszkowska, Nova; Santos, Rui; Cunliffe, Michael; Steinke, Michael; Yesson, Christopher; Anderson, Kathryn M; Asnaghi, Valentina; Brownlee, Colin; Burdett, Heidi L; Burrows, Michael T; Collins, Sinead; Donohue, Penelope J C; Harvey, Ben; Foggo, Andrew; Noisette, Fanny; Nunes, Joana; Ragazzola, Federica; Raven, John A; Schmidt, Daniela N; Suggett, David; Teichberg, Mirta; Hall-Spencer, Jason M

    2014-07-01

    Seaweed and seagrass communities in the northeast Atlantic have been profoundly impacted by humans, and the rate of change is accelerating rapidly due to runaway CO2 emissions and mounting pressures on coastlines associated with human population growth and increased consumption of finite resources. Here, we predict how rapid warming and acidification are likely to affect benthic flora and coastal ecosystems of the northeast Atlantic in this century, based on global evidence from the literature as interpreted by the collective knowledge of the authorship. We predict that warming will kill off kelp forests in the south and that ocean acidification will remove maerl habitat in the north. Seagrasses will proliferate, and associated epiphytes switch from calcified algae to diatoms and filamentous species. Invasive species will thrive in niches liberated by loss of native species and spread via exponential development of artificial marine structures. Combined impacts of seawater warming, ocean acidification, and increased storminess may replace structurally diverse seaweed canopies, with associated calcified and noncalcified flora, with simple habitats dominated by noncalcified, turf-forming seaweeds.

  19. 75 FR 33531 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-14

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 50 CFR Part 635 RIN 0648-XW79 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Fisheries AGENCY: National Marine..., recent Large Pelagics Survey estimates indicate that charter/headboat BFT landings constitute...

  20. The extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin: the role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Marengo, José Antonio; Ronchail, Josyane; Carpio, Jorge Molina; Flores, Luís Noriega; Guyot, Jean Loup

    2014-01-01

    Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in South-western Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal. Discharge in the Madeira River (the main southern Amazon tributary) has been 74% higher than normal (58 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Porto Velho and 380% (25 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Rurrenabaque, at the exit of the Andes in summer, while levels of the Rio Negro at Manaus were 29.47 m in June 2014, corresponding to the fifth highest record during the 113 years record of the Rio Negro. While previous floods in Amazonia have been related to La Niña and/or warmer than normal tropical South Atlantic, the 2014 rainfall and flood anomalies are associated with warm condition in the western Pacific-Indian Ocean and with an exceptionally warm Subtropical South Atlantic. Our results suggest that the tropical and subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient is a main driver for moisture transport from the Atlantic toward south-western Amazon, and this became exceptionally intense during summer of 2014. (letter)

  1. Warm liquid calorimetry for LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Geulig,E; Wallraff,W; Bézaguet, Alain-Arthur; Cavanna, F; Cinnini, P; Cittolin, Sergio; Dreesen, P; Demoulin, M; Dunps, L; Fucci, A; Gallay, G; Givernaud, Alain; Gonidec, A; Jank, Werner; Maurin, Guy; Placci, Alfredo; Porte, J P; Radermacher, E; Samyn, D; Schinzel, D; Schmidt, W F; CERN. Geneva. Detector Research and Development Committee

    1990-01-01

    Results from the beam tests of the U/TMP "warm liquid" calorimeter show that such a technique is very promising for the LHC. Our aim is to extend this programme and design a calorimeter that can satisfy the requirements of high rates, high radiation levels, compensation, uniformity and granularity, as well as fully contain hadronic showers. We propose to construct liquid ionization chambers operated at very high fields, capable of collecting the total charge produced by ionizing particles within times comparable to the bunch crossing time of the future Collider. For this reason we plan to extend the current programme on tetramethylpentane (TMP) to tetramethylsilane (TMSi). An electromagnetic calorimeter consisting of very high field ionization chambers filled with TMSi as sensitive medium with Uranium and/or other high density material as absorber will first be built (to be followed by a full-scale calorimeter module), on which newly designed fast amplifiers and readout electronics will be tested. In addition...

  2. The tragedy of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dominique Auverlot

    2014-01-01

    The author first evokes the consequences of global warming: ocean acidity, ice melt, sea level rise, repeated and always more intense extreme climatic events (a list of the main meteorological and climatic events which occurred in 2013 is given). He outlines that these phenomena happen more quickly than foreseen. He notices that these facts confirm the content of the different IPCC reports. The author outlines the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. He discusses the evolutions of these emissions between 1970 and 2010 in the different countries with respect to their level of economic development. It clearly appears that developed countries produce more emissions, and have only stabilized their emission level whereas emerging countries have notably increased their emissions. Developed and emerging countries should therefore act as quickly as possible

  3. Automobility: Global Warming as Symptomatology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Backhaus

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The argument of this paper is that sustainability requires a new worldview-paradigm. It critically evaluates Gore’s liberal-based environmentalism in order to show how “shallow ecologies” are called into question by deeper ecologies. This analysis leads to the notion that global warming is better understood as a symptom indicative of the worldview that is the source for environmental crises. Heidegger’s ontological hermeneutics and its critique of modern technology show that the modern worldview involves an enframing (a totalizing technological ordering of the natural. Enframing reveals entities as standing reserve (on demand energy suppliers. My thesis maintains that enframing is geographically expressed as automobility. Because of the energy needs used to maintain automobility, reaching the goal of sustainability requires rethinking the spatial organization of life as a function of stored energy technologies.

  4. Warm anisotropic inflationary universe model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia

    2014-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of warm inflation using vector fields in the background of a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I model of the universe. We formulate the field equations, and slow-roll and perturbation parameters (scalar and tensor power spectra as well as their spectral indices) in the slow-roll approximation. We evaluate all these parameters in terms of the directional Hubble parameter during the intermediate and logamediate inflationary regimes by taking the dissipation factor as a function of the scalar field as well as a constant. In each case, we calculate the observational parameter of interest, i.e., the tensor-scalar ratio in terms of the inflaton. The graphical behavior of these parameters shows that the anisotropic model is also compatible with WMAP7 and the Planck observational data. (orig.)

  5. Warm anisotropic inflationary universe model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharif, M.; Saleem, Rabia [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan)

    2014-02-15

    This paper is devoted to the study of warm inflation using vector fields in the background of a locally rotationally symmetric Bianchi type I model of the universe. We formulate the field equations, and slow-roll and perturbation parameters (scalar and tensor power spectra as well as their spectral indices) in the slow-roll approximation. We evaluate all these parameters in terms of the directional Hubble parameter during the intermediate and logamediate inflationary regimes by taking the dissipation factor as a function of the scalar field as well as a constant. In each case, we calculate the observational parameter of interest, i.e., the tensor-scalar ratio in terms of the inflaton. The graphical behavior of these parameters shows that the anisotropic model is also compatible with WMAP7 and the Planck observational data. (orig.)

  6. How to stop global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldenberg, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on how to stop global warming. At the Toronto Conference on Climate Change in 1988, the world's industrialized nations agreed on a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent by the year 2005. This would not stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases but would at least slow their accumulation. Although difficult to achieve, the Toronto goal is certainly reachable. Newer, more efficient technologies can lower energy consumption without effecting economic output. CFC- substitutes can provide refrigeration. In fact, an international carbon tax of just $1 per barrel of oil, or $6 per ton of coal, would generate more than enough revenue to pay for the necessary fuel-saving measures. This tax could result from an international agreement similar to the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which obliges its signatories to cut down on production of CFCs

  7. The economics of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pillet, G.; Hediger, W.; Kypreos, S.; Corbaz, C.

    1993-05-01

    The global warming threat is challenging the world community to both international cooperation and national policy action. This report focuses on the necessity to alternate between ''global and national climate policies''. The Swiss perspective is at issue. The economic rationales for comparing national climate policy options are analyzed. This report explicitly focusses on the fundamental role of the normative framework and the related environmental-economic requisites for establishing an efficient national climate policy and computing a ''carbon tax''. Finally, the latest results of the energy and greenhouse gas scenarios for Switzerland, elaborated on within the network of the IEA/ETSAP Project, Annex IV, ''Greenhouse Gases and National Energy Options: Technologies and Costs for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases'', illustrate Switzerland's difficulties in reducing greenhouse gas emissions at ''reasonable cost'' compared with other countries. This should make Switzerland very sensitive to the implementation of efficient environmental-policy instruments and international cooperation. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  8. Keeping cool on global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seitz, F.; Hawkins, W.; Nierenberg, W.; Salmon, J.; Jastrow, R.; Moore, J.H.

    1992-01-01

    A number of scientific groups have concluded that the greenhouse effect caused by the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other bases has produced much or all of the rise in global temperatures. They predict that there will be an increase in greenhouse gases equivalent to a doubling of carbon dioxide by the middle of the 21st century, and that this will cause the temperature of the earth to rise by as much as 5C. According to these scientists, a temperature rise of this magnitude would cause major disruptions in the earth's ecosystem, including severe summer drought in the midwestern US and other agricultural regions. The worst-case scenarios predict a major rise in sea level as a result of the greenhouse warming, inundating areas of New York, Miami and other coastal cities as well as low-lying river deltas and islands. The lives of hundreds of millions of people would be disrupted. The available data on climate change, however, do not support these predictions, nor do they support the idea that human activity has caused, or will cause, a dangerous increase in global temperatures. As the authors make this statement, they are aware that it contradicts widespread popular opinion, as well as the technical judgments of some of their colleagues. But it would be imprudent to ignore the facts on global warming that have accumulated over the last two years. These facts indicate that theoretical estimates of the greenhouse problem have greatly exaggerated its seriousness. Enormous economic stakes ride on forthcoming government decisions regarding carbon taxes and other restrictions on CO 2 emissions. Due attention must therefore be given to the scientific evidence, no matter how contrary to popular opinion its implications appear to be. This article discusses the scientific evidence

  9. A Historical Perspective of Global Warming Potential from Municipal Solid Waste Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Komal; Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Christensen, Per

    2013-01-01

    The Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) sector has developed considerably during the past century, paving the way for maximum resource (materials and energy) recovery and minimising environmental impacts such as global warming associated with it. The current study is assessing the historical...... development of MSWM in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark throughout the period of 1970 to 2010, and its implications regarding Global Warming Potential (GWP100), using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. Historical data regarding MSW composition, and different treatment technologies...

  10. Design and performance of combined infrared canopy and belowground warming in the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rich, Roy L; Stefanski, Artur; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Hobbie, Sarah E; Kimball, Bruce A; Reich, Peter B

    2015-06-01

    Conducting manipulative climate change experiments in complex vegetation is challenging, given considerable temporal and spatial heterogeneity. One specific challenge involves warming of both plants and soils to depth. We describe the design and performance of an open-air warming experiment called Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger (B4WarmED) that addresses the potential for projected climate warming to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes at the boreal-temperate ecotone. The experiment includes two forested sites in northern Minnesota, USA, with plots in both open (recently clear-cut) and closed canopy habitats, where seedlings of 11 tree species were planted into native ground vegetation. Treatments include three target levels of plant canopy and soil warming (ambient, +1.7°C, +3.4°C). Warming was achieved by independent feedback control of voltage input to aboveground infrared heaters and belowground buried resistance heating cables in each of 72-7.0 m(2) plots. The treatments emulated patterns of observed diurnal, seasonal, and annual temperatures but with superimposed warming. For the 2009 to 2011 field seasons, we achieved temperature elevations near our targets with growing season overall mean differences (∆Tbelow ) of +1.84°C and +3.66°C at 10 cm soil depth and (∆T(above) ) of +1.82°C and +3.45°C for the plant canopies. We also achieved measured soil warming to at least 1 m depth. Aboveground treatment stability and control were better during nighttime than daytime and in closed vs. open canopy sites in part due to calmer conditions. Heating efficacy in open canopy areas was reduced with increasing canopy complexity and size. Results of this study suggest the warming approach is scalable: it should work well in small-statured vegetation such as grasslands, desert, agricultural crops, and tree saplings (<5 m tall). © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. How warm was the year 2010? Background; Wie warm war das Jahr 2010? Hintergrund

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-05-06

    In the background paper under consideration, the Federal Environment Agency (Dessau-Rosslau, Federal Republic of Germany) reports on a global measurement of the surface air temperature in order to obtain a global mean temperature. The global mean temperature of the year 2010 is not very significant. The deviation of the global mean temperature of the year 2010 from the mean temperature in a recent, extended period of time is more significant. The long-term trend in the global mean temperature shows a progressive global warming. The year 2010 was the warmest calendar year with the largest amount of rainfall since the records began in the 19th century. The global mean surface air temperature was very slight above the average temperature of the previous record year 2005.

  12. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B; Mahfouf, J F; Royer, J F [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1996-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  13. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B.; Mahfouf, J.F.; Royer, J.F. [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1995-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  14. 77 FR 25144 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meetings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-27

    .... The Council will consider input from the workgroup and workshops during its June meeting in Orlando... Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meetings AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries... public meeting and public workshop. SUMMARY: The South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (Council) will...

  15. 78 FR 52487 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2014 Atlantic Shark Commercial Fishing Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-23

    .... 130402317-3707-01] RIN 0648-XC611 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2014 Atlantic Shark Commercial Fishing... establish opening dates and adjust quotas for the 2014 fishing season for the Atlantic commercial shark... management measures to provide, to the extent practicable, fishing opportunities for commercial shark...

  16. 75 FR 44938 - Atlantic Coastal Fisheries Cooperative Management Act Provisions; Atlantic Coastal Shark Fishery

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-30

    ... Coastal Fisheries Cooperative Management Act Provisions; Atlantic Coastal Shark Fishery AGENCY: National... moratorium on fishing for Atlantic coastal sharks in the State waters of New Jersey. NMFS canceled the... Fisheries Commission's (Commission) Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic Coastal Sharks (Coastal...

  17. 75 FR 57235 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-20

    .... 100825390-0431-01] RIN 0648-BA17 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Atlantic Shark Management Measures... on potential adjustments to the regulations governing the U.S. Atlantic shark fishery to address several specific issues currently affecting management of the shark fishery and to identify specific goals...

  18. 75 FR 54597 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; Southeast Data, Assessment, and Review (SEDAR); South Atlantic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-08

    ... Atlantic, and Caribbean Fishery Management Councils, in conjunction with NOAA Fisheries and the Atlantic... are appointed by the Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic, and Caribbean Fishery Management Councils; the..., environmentalists, and NGO's; International experts; and staff of Councils, Commissions, and state and federal...

  19. 78 FR 65974 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Advisory Panel for Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Southeast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-04

    ... Management Councils, the 18 states in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, both the U.S. Virgin Islands and... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC935 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Advisory Panel for Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Southeast Data, Assessment...

  20. 76 FR 65700 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Advisory Panel for Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Southeast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-24

    .... Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and each of the constituent interstate commissions: the Atlantic States... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA776 Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Advisory Panel for Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Southeast Data, Assessment...

  1. 78 FR 26523 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2013 and 2014 Atlantic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-07

    .... 130104009-3416-02] RIN 0648-XC432 Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2013 and 2014 Atlantic Bluefish Specifications AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS... final specifications for the 2013 and 2014 Atlantic bluefish fishery, including annual catch limits...

  2. 77 FR 25100 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2012 Atlantic Bluefish...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-27

    .... 120201086-2418-02] RIN 0648-XA904 Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2012 Atlantic Bluefish Specifications AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National... specifications for the 2012 Atlantic bluefish fishery, including an annual catch limit, total allowable landings...

  3. 77 FR 8776 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2012 Atlantic Bluefish...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-15

    .... 120201086-2085-01] RIN 0648-XA904 Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2012 Atlantic Bluefish Specifications AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National... comments. SUMMARY: NMFS proposes specifications for the 2012 Atlantic bluefish fishery, including an annual...

  4. 78 FR 11809 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2013-2014 Atlantic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-20

    .... 130104009-3099-01] RIN 0648-XC432 Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fishery; 2013-2014 Atlantic Bluefish Specifications AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National... comments. SUMMARY: NMFS proposes specifications for the 2013 and 2014 Atlantic bluefish fishery, including...

  5. 76 FR 14378 - Fisheries of the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-16

    ... the South Atlantic; South Atlantic Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting