WorldWideScience

Sample records for warm atlantic period

  1. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisz, Mary; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating...... to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings...

  2. Extreme warming in the NE Atlantic in the winter period 2002-2012 - an analysis with the regional atmospheric model COSMO-CLM and the Arctic System Reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohnemann, Svenja; Heinemann, Guenther; Gutjahr, Oliver; Bromwich, David H.

    2016-04-01

    The high-resolution atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM, German Meteorological Service) is used to simulate the 2m-temperature and the boundary layer structures in the Arctic with focus on the NE Atlantic section the winter periods (Nov-Apr) between 2002 and 2015. The CCLM simulations have a horizontal resolution of 15 km for the whole Arctic. The comparable Arctic System Reanalysis data (ASR, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center), which has been optimized for the Arctic, are available for the same time period with a horizontal resolution of 30 km. In addition, climatological data from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) stations are used as verification. The comparison between the CCLM simulations and the ASR data shows a high agreement. Also the verification of both data sets with AWS and Era-Interim data shows a very high correlation for the air temperature. Slight differences between CCLM and ASR are recognizable in the extreme values as CCLM has the better ice information assimilated and the higher resolution during simulations. Time series of monthly mean based 2m-temperature indicate an enormous increase for the single months for the NE Atlantic and especially the region around the Siberian Island Novaya Zemlya. For example the CCLM March increase amounts up to 16 °C for the regional maximum for the period 2002-2012. The strong increase is mainly reducible to the decreasing sea ice situation in that region during the same time.

  3. North Atlantic warming: patterns of long-term trend and multidecadal variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polyakov, Igor V.; Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Zhang, Xiangdong [University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Bhatt, Uma S. [University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK (United States); Polyakova, Evgenia I. [Stanford University, Department of Geological and Environmental Studies, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic Ocean have wide-spread implications for Europe, Africa, and the Americas. This study assesses the relative contribution of the long-term trend and variability of North Atlantic warming using EOF analysis of deep-ocean and near-surface observations. Our analysis demonstrates that the recent warming over the North Atlantic is linked to both long-term (including anthropogenic and natural) climate change and multidecadal variability (MDV, {proportional_to}50-80 years). Our results suggest a general warming trend of 0.031 {+-} 0.006 C/decade in the upper 2,000 m North Atlantic over the last 80 years of the twentieth century, although during this time there are periods in which short-term trends were strongly amplified by MDV. For example, MDV accounts for {proportional_to}60% of North Atlantic warming since 1970. The single-sign basin-scale pattern of MDV with prolonged periods of warming (cooling) in the upper ocean layer and opposite tendency in the lower layer is evident from observations. This pattern is associated with a slowdown (enhancement) of the North Atlantic thermohaline overturning circulation during negative (positive) MDV phases. In contrast, the long-term trend exhibits warming in tropical and mid-latitude North Atlantic and a pattern of cooling in regions associated with major northward heat transports, consistent with a slowdown of the North Atlantic circulation as evident from observations and confirmed by selected modeling results. This localized cooling has been masked in recent decades by warming during the positive phase of MDV. Finally, since the North Atlantic Ocean plays a crucial role in establishing and regulating the global thermohaline circulation, the multidecadal fluctuations discussed here should be considered when assessing long-term climate change and variability, both in the North Atlantic and at global scales. (orig.)

  4. Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisz, M. S.; Broennimann, O.; Grønkjær, P.; Møller, P. R.; Olsen, S. M.; Swingedouw, D.; Hedeholm, R. B.; Nielsen, E. E.; Guisan, A.; Pellissier, L.

    2015-03-01

    Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific. Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier, potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas. Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges, this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.

  5. Amplified North Atlantic warming in the late Pliocene by changes in Arctic gateways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Jahn, Alexandra; Feng, Ran; Brady, Esther C.; Hu, Aixue; Löfverström, Marcus

    2017-01-01

    Under previous reconstructions of late Pliocene boundary conditions, climate models have failed to reproduce the warm sea surface temperatures reconstructed in the North Atlantic. Using a reconstruction of mid-Piacenzian paleogeography that has the Bering Strait and Canadian Arctic Archipelago Straits closed, however, improves the simulation of the proxy-indicated warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in the Community Climate System Model. We find that the closure of these small Arctic gateways strengthens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, by inhibiting freshwater transport from the Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and from the Arctic Ocean to the Labrador Sea, leading to warmer sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. This indicates that the state of the Arctic gateways may influence the sensitivity of the North Atlantic climate in complex ways, and better understanding of the state of these Arctic gateways for past time periods is needed.

  6. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  7. Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

    2016-02-03

    Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

  8. Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Vincent S.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Anderson, Whit G.; Winton, Michael; Alexander, Michael A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Rosati, Anthony; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong

    2016-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment of projected global and regional ocean temperature change is based on global climate models that have coarse (˜100 km) ocean and atmosphere resolutions. In the Northwest Atlantic, the ensemble of global climate models has a warm bias in sea surface temperature due to a misrepresentation of the Gulf Stream position; thus, existing climate change projections are based on unrealistic regional ocean circulation. Here we compare simulations and an atmospheric CO2 doubling response from four global climate models of varying ocean and atmosphere resolution. We find that the highest resolution climate model (˜10 km ocean, ˜50 km atmosphere) resolves Northwest Atlantic circulation and water mass distribution most accurately. The CO2 doubling response from this model shows that upper-ocean (0-300 m) temperature in the Northwest Atlantic Shelf warms at a rate nearly twice as fast as the coarser models and nearly three times faster than the global average. This enhanced warming is accompanied by an increase in salinity due to a change in water mass distribution that is related to a retreat of the Labrador Current and a northerly shift of the Gulf Stream. Both observations and the climate model demonstrate a robust relationship between a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and an increase in the proportion of Warm-Temperate Slope Water entering the Northwest Atlantic Shelf. Therefore, prior climate change projections for the Northwest Atlantic may be far too conservative. These results point to the need to improve simulations of basin and regional-scale ocean circulation.

  9. Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

    2016-03-22

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  10. Reduced Interdecadal Variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Cheng, J.; Zhang, S.; Liu, W.; Dong, L.; Liu, P.; Li, H.

    2016-12-01

    Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. In spite of some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from 50 to 20 years and the amplitude is reduced by 60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speed-up of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

  11. North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick

    2013-12-05

    Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet quadrupled over the past two decades, contributing a quarter of the observed global sea-level rise. Increased submarine melting is thought to have triggered the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers, which is partly responsible for the ice loss. However, the chain of events and physical processes remain elusive. Recent evidence suggests that an anomalous inflow of subtropical waters driven by atmospheric changes, multidecadal natural ocean variability and a long-term increase in the North Atlantic's upper ocean heat content since the 1950s all contributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic. This led, in conjunction with increased runoff, to enhanced submarine glacier melting. Future climate projections raise the potential for continued increases in warming and ice-mass loss, with implications for sea level and climate.

  12. Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Tony W.; Noel C. Baker

    2016-01-01

    The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST) warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of 38 CMIP5 climate models to provide further evidence that models produce warming hiatus periods during warming experiments. GST rate...

  13. Major cause of unprecedented Arctic warming in January 2016: Critical role of an Atlantic windstorm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Baek-Min; Hong, Ja-Young; Jun, Sang-Yoon; Zhang, Xiangdong; Kwon, Hataek; Kim, Seong-Joong; Kim, Joo-Hong; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kim, Hyun-Kyung

    2017-01-01

    In January 2016, the Arctic experienced an extremely anomalous warming event after an extraordinary increase in air temperature at the end of 2015. During this event, a strong intrusion of warm and moist air and an increase in downward longwave radiation, as well as a loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas, were observed. Observational analyses revealed that the abrupt warming was triggered by the entry of a strong Atlantic windstorm into the Arctic in late December 2015, which brought enormous moist and warm air masses to the Arctic. Although the storm terminated at the eastern coast of Greenland in late December, it was followed by a prolonged blocking period in early 2016 that sustained the extreme Arctic warming. Numerical experiments indicate that the warming effect of sea ice loss and associated upward turbulent heat fluxes are relatively minor in this event. This result suggests the importance of the synoptically driven warm and moist air intrusion into the Arctic as a primary contributing factor of this extreme Arctic warming event.

  14. Climate variability during warm and cold phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 1871-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Michael A.; Halimeda Kilbourne, K.; Nye, Janet A.

    2014-05-01

    An extended reanalysis, a combination of observations and model output, is used to examine the spatial patterns of physical variables associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) from 1871 to 2008. The results are presented as anomalies during positive and negative phases of the AMO. As in previous studies, during positive (negative) AMO phases the sea surface temperature (SST) is anomalously warm (cold) over most of the North Atlantic, with the exception of the east coast of the United States. The atmospheric patterns, associated with the positive phase of the AMO, include anomalous low pressure over the Atlantic between 20°S and 50°N, cyclonic surface winds around the low, reduced wind speeds over the tropical Atlantic and enhanced precipitation in the eastern tropical Atlantic, with roughly opposite conditions during negative AMO phases. There are, however, substantial differences in the SST and the atmospheric anomalies between periods of the same phase, especially in the extratropics. Correlations between the AMO and air temperature anomalies are positive over much of the globe between 40°S and 50°N, with correlations exceeding 0.6 (~ 95% significance level) over the Maritime Continent and northern rim of the Pacific Ocean. Most of the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies beyond the Atlantic are not statistically significant.

  15. Warm and Saline Events Embedded in the Meridional Circulation of the Northern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

    2011-01-01

    Ocean state estimates from 1958 to 2005 from the Simple Ocean Assimilation System (SODA) system are analyzed to understand circulation between subtropical and subpolar Atlantic and their connection with atmospheric forcing. This analysis shows three periods (1960s, around 1980, and 2000s) with enhanced warm, saline waters reaching high latitudes, alternating with freshwater events originating at high latitudes. It complements surface drifter and altimetry data showing the subtropical -subpolar exchange leading to a significant temperature and salinity increase in the northeast Atlantic after 2001. The warm water limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning cell represented by SODA expanded in density/salinity space during these warm events. Tracer simulations using SODA velocities also show decadal variation of the Gulf Stream waters reaching the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, usually invoked in such variability, fails to predict the warming and salinization in the early 2000s, with salinities not seen since the 1960s. Wind stress curl variability provided a linkage to this subtropical/subpolar gyre exchange as illustrated using an idealized two ]layer circulation model. The ocean response to the modulation of the climatological wind stress curl pattern was found to be such that the northward penetration of subtropical tracers is enhanced when amplitude of the wind stress curl is weaker than normal. In this case both the subtropical and subpolar gyres weaken and the subpolar density surfaces relax; hence, the polar front moves westward, opening an enhanced northward access of the subtropical waters in the eastern boundary current.

  16. Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Mark A; Lea, Adam S

    2008-01-31

    Atlantic hurricane activity has increased significantly since 1995 (refs 1-4), but the underlying causes of this increase remain uncertain. It is widely thought that rising Atlantic sea surface temperatures have had a role in this, but the magnitude of this contribution is not known. Here we quantify this contribution for storms that formed in the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico; these regions together account for most of the hurricanes that make landfall in the United States. We show that a statistical model based on two environmental variables--local sea surface temperature and an atmospheric wind field--can replicate a large proportion of the variance in tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency and activity between 1965 and 2005. We then remove the influence of the atmospheric wind field to assess the contribution of sea surface temperature. Our results indicate that the sensitivity of tropical Atlantic hurricane activity to August-September sea surface temperature over the period we consider is such that a 0.5 degrees C increase in sea surface temperature is associated with a approximately 40% increase in hurricane frequency and activity. The results also indicate that local sea surface warming was responsible for approximately 40% of the increase in hurricane activity relative to the 1950-2000 average between 1996 and 2005. Our analysis does not identify whether warming induced by greenhouse gases contributed to the increase in hurricane activity, but the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricanes and sea surface temperature will serve as a useful means of assessing whether they are likely to provide reliable projections of future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity.

  17. Detecting Warming Hiatus Periods in CMIP5 Climate Model Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony W. Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The observed slow-down in the global-mean surface temperature (GST warming from 1998 to 2012 has been called a “warming hiatus.” Certain climate models, operating under experiments which simulate warming by increasing radiative forcing, have been shown to reproduce periods which resemble the observed hiatus. The present study provides a comprehensive analysis of 38 CMIP5 climate models to provide further evidence that models produce warming hiatus periods during warming experiments. GST rates are simulated in each model for the 21st century using two experiments: a moderate warming scenario (RCP4.5 and high-end scenario (RCP8.5. Warming hiatus periods are identified in model simulations by detecting (1 ≥15-year periods lacking a statistically meaningful trend and (2 rapid changes in the GST rate which resemble the observed 1998–2012 hiatus. Under the RCP4.5 experiment, all tested models produce warming hiatus periods. However, once radiative forcing exceeds 5 W/m2—about 2°C GST increase—as simulated in the RCP8.5 experiment after 2050, nearly all models produce only positive warming trends. All models show evidence of rapid changes in the GST rate resembling the observed hiatus, showing that the climate variations associated with warming hiatus periods are still evident in the models, even under accelerated warming conditions.

  18. North Atlantic warming during Dansgaard-Oeschger events synchronous with Antarctic warming and out-of-phase with Greenland climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Tine L.; Thomsen, Erik; Moros, Matthias

    2016-02-01

    The precise reason for the differences and out-of-phase relationship between the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings in the Nordic seas and Greenland ice cores and the gradual warmings in the south-central Atlantic and Antarctic ice cores is poorly understood. Termed the bipolar seesaw, the differences are apparently linked to perturbations in the ocean circulation pattern. Here we show that surface and intermediate-depth water south of Iceland warmed gradually synchronously with the Antarctic warming and out of phase with the abrupt warming of the Nordic seas and over Greenland. The hinge line between areas showing abrupt and gradual warming was close to the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and the marine system appears to be a ‘push-and-pull’ system rather than a seesaw system. ‘Pull’ during the warm interstadials, when convection in the Nordic seas was active; ‘push’ during the cold stadials, when convection stopped and warm water from the south-central Atlantic pushed northward gradually warming the North Atlantic and Nordic seas.

  19. Effect of Warm Atlantic Waters on the Climate Anomalies in the West Arctic

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    A. N. Zolotokrylin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant climatic changes of oceanic and atmospheric elements and a relation of them to the ocean surface winter anomalies in North Atlantic are analyzed in the paper. Periods of «warm» ocean (2002–2012 and «cold» ocean (1960–1970 were determined. Positive anomalies of the ocean surface temperature increase the ice-free water area and, correspondingly, decrease the ice-field area. As a result of such changes in a state of the ocean surface (open water and ice, surface air temperature rises, and, consequently, atmospheric pressure in central part of a given Arctic sector drops.

  20. Physical processes that drive the seasonal evolution of the Southwestern Tropical Atlantic Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cintra, Marcio M.; Lentini, Carlos A. D.; Servain, Jacques; Araujo, Moacyr; Marone, Eduardo

    2015-12-01

    The thermodynamics of the seasonal evolution of the Southwestern Tropical Atlantic Warm Pool (hereafter SWTAWP), which is delimited by the 28 °C isotherm, is investigated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Results indicate that the net heat flux is responsible for the appearance and extinction of the SWTAWP. From March to May, the SWTAWP attains its maximum development and sometimes merges with equatorial warm waters towards the African continent, whose development follows the same period. Along the equator, the combination of oceanic terms (i.e., advection and diffusion) is important to promote the separation - when it occurs - of equatorial warm waters from southwestern tropical waters, which develops off the Brazilian coast. An analysis of the relative contribution of the temperature tendency terms of the mixed layer (ML) heat budget over the appearance, development and extinction of the SWTAWP is also done. The most important term for warming and cooling inside of the ML is the net heat flux at the sea surface. The ML is heated by the atmosphere between October and April, whereas the upper ocean cools down between May and September. The highest heat content values occur during the lower-temperature period (August to October), which is linked to the deepening of the ML during this time period. The horizontal advection along the equator is important, particularly at the eastern domain, which is influenced by the cold tongue. In this area, the vertical diffusive term is also significant; however, it presents values near zero outside the equator. These results contribute to a better understanding of the behavior of the heat budget within the tropical Atlantic, as previous studies over this region focused along the equator only.

  1. Amplification of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with the onset of the industrial-era warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, G. W. K.; Halfar, J.; Majeed, H.; Adey, W.; Kronz, A.

    2017-01-01

    North Atlantic sea surface temperatures experience variability with a periodicity of 60–80 years that is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It has a profound imprint on the global climate system that results in a number of high value societal impacts. However the industrial period, i.e. the middle of the 19th century onwards, contains only two full cycles of the AMO making it difficult to fully characterize this oscillation and its impact on the climate system. As a result, there is a clear need to identify paleoclimate records extending into the pre-industrial period that contain an expression of the AMO. This is especially true for extratropical marine paleoclimate proxies where such expressions are currently unavailable. Here we present an annually resolved coralline algal time series from the northwest Atlantic Ocean that exhibits multidecadal variability extending back six centuries. The time series contains a statistically significant trend towards higher values, i.e. warmer conditions, beginning in the 19th century that coincided with an increase in the time series’ multidecadal power. We argue that these changes are associated with a regional climate reorganization involving an amplification of the AMO that coincided with onset of the industrial-era warming.

  2. Amplification of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with the onset of the industrial-era warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, G. W. K.; Halfar, J.; Majeed, H.; Adey, W.; Kronz, A.

    2017-01-01

    North Atlantic sea surface temperatures experience variability with a periodicity of 60–80 years that is known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). It has a profound imprint on the global climate system that results in a number of high value societal impacts. However the industrial period, i.e. the middle of the 19th century onwards, contains only two full cycles of the AMO making it difficult to fully characterize this oscillation and its impact on the climate system. As a result, there is a clear need to identify paleoclimate records extending into the pre-industrial period that contain an expression of the AMO. This is especially true for extratropical marine paleoclimate proxies where such expressions are currently unavailable. Here we present an annually resolved coralline algal time series from the northwest Atlantic Ocean that exhibits multidecadal variability extending back six centuries. The time series contains a statistically significant trend towards higher values, i.e. warmer conditions, beginning in the 19th century that coincided with an increase in the time series’ multidecadal power. We argue that these changes are associated with a regional climate reorganization involving an amplification of the AMO that coincided with onset of the industrial-era warming. PMID:28112208

  3. Glacier maxima in Baffin Bay during the Medieval Warm Period coeval with Norse settlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Nicolás E; Schweinsberg, Avriel D; Briner, Jason P; Schaefer, Joerg M

    2015-12-01

    The climatic mechanisms driving the shift from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the North Atlantic region are debated. We use cosmogenic beryllium-10 dating to develop a moraine chronology with century-scale resolution over the last millennium and show that alpine glaciers in Baffin Island and western Greenland were at or near their maximum LIA configurations during the proposed general timing of the MWP. Complimentary paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the western North Atlantic region remained cool, whereas the eastern North Atlantic region was comparatively warmer during the MWP-a dipole pattern compatible with a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These results demonstrate that over the last millennium, glaciers approached their eventual LIA maxima before what is considered the classic LIA in the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, a relatively cool western North Atlantic region during the MWP has implications for understanding Norse migration patterns during the MWP. Our results, paired with other regional climate records, point to nonclimatic factors as contributing to the Norse exodus from the western North Atlantic region.

  4. Glacier maxima in Baffin Bay during the Medieval Warm Period coeval with Norse settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Nicolás E.; Schweinsberg, Avriel D.; Briner, Jason P.; Schaefer, Joerg M.

    2015-01-01

    The climatic mechanisms driving the shift from the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the North Atlantic region are debated. We use cosmogenic beryllium-10 dating to develop a moraine chronology with century-scale resolution over the last millennium and show that alpine glaciers in Baffin Island and western Greenland were at or near their maximum LIA configurations during the proposed general timing of the MWP. Complimentary paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the western North Atlantic region remained cool, whereas the eastern North Atlantic region was comparatively warmer during the MWP—a dipole pattern compatible with a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These results demonstrate that over the last millennium, glaciers approached their eventual LIA maxima before what is considered the classic LIA in the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, a relatively cool western North Atlantic region during the MWP has implications for understanding Norse migration patterns during the MWP. Our results, paired with other regional climate records, point to nonclimatic factors as contributing to the Norse exodus from the western North Atlantic region. PMID:26665173

  5. Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kandiano, Evgenia S.; van der Meer, Marcel T. J.; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Bauch, Henning A.

    2017-04-01

    Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

  6. Subsurface North Atlantic warming as a trigger of rapid cooling events: evidences from the Early Pleistocene (MIS 31–19

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Hernández-Almeida

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Subsurface water column dynamics in the subpolar North Atlantic were reconstructed in order to improve the understanding of the cause of abrupt IRD events during cold periods of the Early Pleistocene. We used Mg / Ca-based temperatures of deep-dwelling (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral planktonic foraminifera and paired Mg / Ca-δ18O measurements to estimate the subsurface temperatures and δ18O of seawater at Site U1314. Carbon isotopes on benthic and planktonic foraminifera from the same site provide information about the ventilation and water column nutrient gradient. Mg / Ca-based temperatures and δ18O of seawater suggest increased temperatures and salinities during ice-rafting, likely due to enhanced northward subsurface transport of subtropical waters during periods of AMOC reduction. Planktonic carbon isotopes support this suggestion, showing coincident increased subsurface ventilation during deposition of ice-rafted detritus (IRD. Warm waters accumulated at subsurface would result in basal warming and break-up of ice-shelves, leading to massive iceberg discharges in the North Atlantic. Release of heat and salt stored at subsurface would help to restart the AMOC. This mechanism is in agreement with modelling and proxy studies that observe a subsurface warming in the North Atlantic in response to AMOC slowdown during the MIS3.

  7. Medieval Warm Period Archives Preserved in Limpet Shells (Patella Vulgata) From Viking Deposits, United Kingdom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobilia, M.; Surge, D.

    2008-12-01

    The Medieval Warm Period (700-1100 YBP) represents a recent period of warm climate, and as such provides a powerful comparison to today's continuing warming trend. However, the spatial and temporal variability inherent in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) makes it difficult to differentiate between global climate trends and regional variability. The continued study of this period will allow for the better understanding of temperature variability, both regional and global, during this climate interval. Our study is located in the Orkney Islands, Scotland, which is a critical area to understand climate dynamics. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream heavily influence climate in this region, and the study of climate intervals during the MWP will improve our understanding of the behavior of these climate mechanisms during this interval. Furthermore, the vast majority of the climate archive has been derived from either deep marine or arctic environments. Studying a coastal environment will offer valuable insight into the behavior of maritime climate during the MWP. Estimated seasonal sea surface temperature data were derived through isotopic analysis of limpet shells (Patella vulgata). Analysis of modern shells confirms that growth temperature tracks seasonal variation in ambient water temperature. Preliminary data from MWP shells record a seasonal temperature range comparable to that observed in the modern temperature data. We will extend the range of temperature data from the 10th through 14th centuries to advance our knowledge of seasonal temperature variability during the late Holocene.

  8. How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landais, Amaelle; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Capron, Emilie; Langebroek, Petra M.; Bakker, Pepijn; Stone, Emma J.; Merz, Niklaus; Raible, Christoph C.; Fischer, Hubertus; Orsi, Anaïs; Prié, Frédéric; Vinther, Bo; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

    2016-09-01

    The last interglacial period (LIG, ˜ 129-116 thousand years ago) provides the most recent case study of multimillennial polar warming above the preindustrial level and a response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to this warming, as well as a test bed for climate and ice sheet models. Past changes in Greenland ice sheet thickness and surface temperature during this period were recently derived from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core records, northwest Greenland. The NEEM paradox has emerged from an estimated large local warming above the preindustrial level (7.5 ± 1.8 °C at the deposition site 126 kyr ago without correction for any overall ice sheet altitude changes between the LIG and the preindustrial period) based on water isotopes, together with limited local ice thinning, suggesting more resilience of the real Greenland ice sheet than shown in some ice sheet models. Here, we provide an independent assessment of the average LIG Greenland surface warming using ice core air isotopic composition (δ15N) and relationships between accumulation rate and temperature. The LIG surface temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site without ice sheet altitude correction is estimated to be warmer by +8.5 ± 2.5 °C compared to the preindustrial period. This temperature estimate is consistent with the 7.5 ± 1.8 °C warming initially determined from NEEM water isotopes but at the upper end of the preindustrial period to LIG temperature difference of +5.2 ± 2.3 °C obtained at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site by the same method. Climate simulations performed with present-day ice sheet topography lead in general to a warming smaller than reconstructed, but sensitivity tests show that larger amplitudes (up to 5 °C) are produced in response to prescribed changes in sea ice extent and ice sheet topography.

  9. How warm was Greenland during the last interglacial period?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landais, Amaelle; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Capron, Emilie; Langenbroeck, Petra; Bakker, Pepijn; Stone, Emma; Fischer, Hubertus; Vinther, Bo; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

    2016-04-01

    The last interglacial period (LIG, ~129-116 thousand years ago) provides the most recent evidence for the response of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to polar warming above pre-industrial level, and a valuable test bed for ice sheet models. Key constraints on past changes in both ice sheet topography and surface temperature are derived from Greenland ice cores. The large warming estimated from the recent NEEM ice core drilled in northwest Greenland (8 ±4°C above pre-industrial) together with the evidence for limited local ice thinning have led to the "NEEM paradox", suggesting more stability of the ice sheet than simulated by ice flow models in response to such large warming. Here, we provide a new assessment of the LIG warming using ice core air isotopic composition (d15N) together with available relationships for Greenland between accumulation rate and temperature. The temperature at the upstream NEEM deposition site is estimated to be between -20°C to -24°C which is consistent with the 8±4°C warming relative to pre-industrial previously determined from water isotopic records measured on the NEEM ice, although we feel the lower end of this range to be more likely. Moreover, we show that under such warm temperature, melting of snow probably led to a significant firn shrinking by 15 m. We show that confirmation of this high temperature range for the LIG in Greenland is difficult to reconcile with climate modeling experiments

  10. Early global warming in the period 1850 to 1920

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf; Brandsma, Theo; Auchmann, Renate; Esper, Jan; Haustein, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    The current global temperature datasets show no warming in the land surface temperature and the sea surface temperature for the period between 1850 and 1920. However, several lines of evidence suggest that the Earth's surface was warming during this period. Every line of evidence by itself is currently not compelling, but the consilience of evidence at least makes a good case for further research. This period is characterized by the introduction of Stevenson screens, which reduce radiation errors more than the monitoring methods used before. As a consequence, Stevenson screens typically observe cooler temperatures than earlier observations. Recent analyses of parallel measurements suggest that this cooling bias is larger than previously thought. Physical reasoning suggests this bias to be largest in sub-tropical and tropic regions; this pattern is also found in the limited number of parallel measurements available. We are missing information from continental climates. The Global Historical Climate Network (GHCNv3) does not change the trend between 1870 and 1920 and adjust 0.1°C between 1850 and 1970. This small adjustment seems to be less than needed for this transition compared to the size of this jump estimated from the limited evidence we have from parallel measurements Further evidence for warming during this period can be found in lake and river freeze and breakup times, which show a clear shortening of the freezing period between 1850 and 1920. Most of the glaciers for which we have data from this period show reductions in their lengths, which signals clear warming. Also temperature reconstructions from proxies show warming. The CMIP model ensemble shows 0.2°C warming in the global mean temperature. We will be looking at well-homogenized national datasets and compare them to the national averages from the global collections. For this period we have up to now 3 such comparisons (Austria, Italy and Spain), these have too much scatter relative to the BEST

  11. Regional warming chnages fish species richness in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, ter R.; Hiddink, J.G.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    Regional warming causes changes in local communities due to species extinctions and latitudinal range shifts. We show that the species richness of fish in 3 regional seas in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean has changed over time (1997 to 2008), and we relate this to higher water temperatures and the

  12. Subsurface warming in the subpolar North Atlantic during rapid climate events in the Early and Mid-Pleistocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Sierro, Francisco; Cacho, Isabel; Abel Flores, José

    2014-05-01

    A new high-resolution reconstruction of the temperature and salinity of the subsurface waters using paired Mg/Ca-δ18O measurements on the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistrorsa (sin.) was conducted on a deep-sea sediment core in the subpolar North Atlantic (Site U1314). This study aims to reconstruct millennial-scale subsurface hydrography variations during the Early and Mid-Pleistocene (MIS 31-19). These rapid climate events are characterized by abrupt shifts between warm/cold conditions, and ice-sheet oscillations, as evidenced by major ice rafting events recorded in the North Atlantic sediments (Hernández-Almeida et al., 2012), similar to those found during the Last Glacial period (Marcott et al, 2011). The Mg/Ca derived paleotemperature and salinity oscillations prior and during IRD discharges at Site U1314 are related to changes in intermediate circulation. The increases in Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and salinities during the IRD event are preceded by short episodes of cooling and freshening of subsurface waters. The response of the AMOC to this perturbation is an increased of warm and salty water coming from the south, transported to high latitudes in the North Atlantic beneath the thermocline. This process is accompanied by a southward shift in the convection cell from the Nordic Seas to the subpolar North Atlantic and better ventilation of the North Atlantic at mid-depths. Poleward transport of warm and salty subsurface subtropical waters causes intense basal melting and thinning of marine ice-shelves, that culminates in large-scale instability of the ice sheets, retreat of the grounding line and iceberg discharge. The mechanism proposed involves the coupling of the AMOC with ice-sheet dynamics, and would explain the presence of these fluctuations before the establishment of high-amplitude 100-kyr glacial cycles. Hernández-Almeida, I., Sierro, F.J., Cacho, I., Flores, J.A., 2012. Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North

  13. Sea-ice free Arctic contributes to the projected warming minimum in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suo, Lingling; Gao, Yongqi; Guo, Dong; Bethke, Ingo

    2017-07-01

    Projected global warming is not spatially uniform and one of the minima in warming occurs in the North Atlantic (NA). Several models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 even projected a slight NA cooling in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005. Here we show that, by our simulations performed with the Bergen Climate Model (BCM), an autumn (September to November) sea-ice free Arctic (SIF) contributes to the NA warming minimum by weakening the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The role of the air-sea interaction in the response to the SIF, which has not been widely discussed in the literature, has been highlighted by the results presented in this study.

  14. On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahl, Sebastian; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel [Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall. (orig.)

  15. Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine eBruge

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel’s spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models: (i a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/°C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century, the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that centre of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km and northward (0.5 to 328 km, but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from -9.3% to 12%. With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in

  16. Twentieth century warming of the tropical Atlantic captured by Sr-U paleothermometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpert, Alice E.; Cohen, Anne L.; Oppo, Delia W.; DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Gaetani, Glenn A.; Hernandez-Delgado, Edwin A.; Winter, Amos; Gonneea, Meagan

    2017-01-01

    Coral skeletons are valuable archives of past ocean conditions. However, interpretation of coral paleotemperature records is confounded by uncertainties associated with single-element ratio thermometers, including Sr/Ca. A new approach, Sr-U, uses U/Ca to constrain the influence of Rayleigh fractionation on Sr/Ca. Here we build on the initial Pacific Porites Sr-U calibration to include multiple Atlantic and Pacific coral genera from multiple coral reef locations spanning a temperature range of 23.15–30.12°C. Accounting for the wintertime growth cessation of one Bermuda coral, we show that Sr-U is strongly correlated with the average water temperature at each location (r2 = 0.91, P period 1900–1996 is within 0.12°C of the average instrumental temperature at this site and captures the twentieth century warming trend of 0.06°C per decade. Sr-U also captures the timing of multiyear variability but with higher amplitude than implied by the instrumental data. Mean Sr-U temperatures and patterns of multiyear variability were replicated in a second coral in the same grid box. Conversely, Sr/Ca records from the same two corals were inconsistent with each other and failed to capture absolute sea temperatures, timing of multiyear variability, or the twentieth century warming trend. Our results suggest that coral Sr-U paleothermometry is a promising new tool for reconstruction of past ocean temperatures.

  17. Enhanced warming of the subtropical mode water in the North Pacific and North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Shusaku; Hanawa, Kimio; Watanabe, Tomowo; Suga, Toshio; Xie, Shang-Ping

    2017-09-01

    Over the past six decades, the subtropical surface ocean has warmed at rates close to those of global mean surface ocean temperature except in western boundary current regions where the surface warming is locally enhanced by a factor of two. Changes in the subsurface ocean, however, remain unclear because of lack of data. Compiling historical temperature measurements--some available for the first time--here we show that the subtropical mode water has warmed over the past six decades in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The rate of the warming is twice as large in the mode waters than at the surface. Subtropical mode waters are important water masses of vertically uniform temperature that are a few hundred metres thick and distributed widely in the main thermocline of the subtropical oceans. The enhanced warming of subtropical mode waters can be traced back to the surface warming in the formation regions along the western boundary current extensions. Furthermore, we detect increased temperature stratification and decreased dissolved oxygen in the subtropical mode waters. The latter change has clear implications for predicting biogeochemical responses to climate warming.

  18. Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2007-01-01

    Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

  19. Subpolar Atlantic cooling and North American east coast warming linked to AMOC slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan; Caesar, Levke; Feulner, Georg; Saba, Vincent

    2017-04-01

    Reconstructing the history of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is difficult due to the limited availability of data. One approach has been to use instrumental and proxy data for sea surface temperature (SST), taking multi-decadal and longer SST variations in the subpolar gyre region as indicator for AMOC changes [Rahmstorf et al., 2015]. Recent high-resolution global climate model results [Saba et al., 2016] as well as dynamical theory and conceptual modelling [Zhang and Vallis, 2007] suggest that an AMOC weakening will not only cool the subpolar Atlantic but simultaneously warm the Northwest Atlantic between Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia, thus providing a characteristic SST pattern associated with AMOC variations. We analyse sea surface temperature (SST) observations from this region together with high-resolution climate model simulations to better understand the linkages of SST variations to AMOC variability and to provide further evidence for an ongoing AMOC slowdown. References Rahmstorf, S., J. E. Box, G. Feulner, M. E. Mann, A. Robinson, S. Rutherford, and E. J. Schaffernicht (2015), Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2554. Saba, V. S., et al. (2016), Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 121(1), 118-132, doi: 10.1002/2015JC011346. Zhang, R., and G. K. Vallis (2007), The Role of Bottom Vortex Stretching on the Path of the North Atlantic Western Boundary Current and on the Northern Recirculation Gyre, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(8), 2053-2080, doi: 10.1175/jpo3102.1.

  20. Antarctica during the mid-Pliocene Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolan, A. M.; Hill, D. J.; Haywood, A. M.

    2012-12-01

    The study of warm intervals of the Pliocene Epoch (Pliocene 'interglacials') is important for understanding the long-term response of major ice sheets and sea level to current or near future concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2); as well as global mean temperatures that will be attained during this century. For the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.3 to 3.0 Ma BP) we present a review of current and recent research that has sought to constrain the nature of the Antarctic Ice Sheets using sophisticated numerical climate and ice-sheet models. It is generally accepted that during warm intervals of the Pliocene, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) was largely ice free; however, the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) to peak sea level rise during the mPWP is less well understood. Numerous sources of geological information are available that are capable of placing constraints on the stability of the EAIS during the mPWP, but each has inherent uncertainties and signals can often be difficult to interpret. Therefore, numerical modelling is required to test proxy-based assertions of sea-level change and pin-point the likely contributions from the major ice sheets. We present an ensemble of simulations using the Hadley Centre Atmosphere-Ocean Climate Model (HadCM3) coupled offline to the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM) that explores the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to changes in orbital forcing and atmospheric CO2 levels during the mid-Pliocene. We show that significant ice sheet retreat is only simulated under warm Southern Hemisphere orbital conditions where levels of CO2 are at 400 ppmv or above. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that this result is dependent on necessary a priori assumptions regarding the initial ice sheet configuration within the modelling framework. To diagnose which assumptions give climate simulations that are more consistent with geological proxy data, we evaluate our results against two

  1. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

    2017-07-01

    Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.

  2. Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

    2014-12-01

    Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature

  3. Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

    2017-08-01

    Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

  4. Strong middepth warming and weak radiocarbon imprints in the equatorial Atlantic during Heinrich 1 and Younger Dryas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weldeab, Syee; Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Schneider, Ralph R.

    2016-08-01

    We present a benthic foraminiferal multiproxy record of eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA) middepth water (1295 m) covering the last deglacial. We show that EEA middepth water temperatures were elevated by 3.9 ± 0.5°C and 5.2 ± 1.2°C during Heinrich event 1 (H1) and Younger Dryas (YD), respectively. The radiocarbon content of the EEA middepth during H1 and YD is relatively low and comparable to the values of the pre-H1 episode and Bølling-Allerød, respectively. A transient Earth system model simulation, which mimics the observed deglacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) history, qualitatively reproduces the major features of the EEA proxy records. The simulation results suggest that fresh water-induced weakening of the AMOC leads to a vertical shift of the horizon of Southern Ocean-sourced water and a stronger influence of EEA sea surface temperatures via mixing. Our findings reaffirm the lack of a distinctive signature of radiocarbon depletion and therefore do not support the notion of interhemispheric exchanges of strongly radiocarbon-depleted middepth water across the tropical Atlantic during H1 and YD. Our temperature reconstruction presents a critical zonal and water depth extension of existing tropical Atlantic data and documents a large-scale and basin-wide warming across the thermocline and middepth of the tropical Atlantic during H1 and YD. Significant difference in the timing and pace of H1 middepth warming between tropical Atlantic and North Atlantic likely points to a limited role of the tropical Atlantic middepth warming in the rapid heat buildup in the North Atlantic middepth.

  5. How does the SST variability over the western North Atlantic Ocean control Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara Seas?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ok; Sung, Mi-Kyung; Sato, Kazutoshi; Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Seong-Joong; Baek, Eun-Hyuk; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kim, Baek-Min

    2017-03-01

    Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara Seas and its impacts on the mid-latitude circulations have been widely discussed. However, the specific mechanism that brings the warming still remains unclear. In this study, a possible cause of the regional Arctic warming over the Barents–Kara Seas during early winter (October–December) is suggested. We found that warmer sea surface temperature anomalies over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) modulate the transient eddies overlying the oceanic frontal region. The altered transient eddy vorticity flux acts as a source for the Rossby wave straddling the western North Atlantic and the Barents–Kara Seas (Scandinavian pattern), and induces a significant warm advection, increasing surface and lower-level temperature over the Eurasian sector of the Arctic Ocean. The importance of the sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNAO and subsequent transient eddy forcing over the WNAO was also supported by both specially designed simple model experiments and general circulation model experiments.

  6. Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Rebecca E.; Jørgensen, Christian

    2014-01-01

    Climate change influences the marine environment, with ocean warming being the foremost driving factor governing changes in the physiology and ecology of fish. At the individual level, increasing temperature influences bioenergetics and numerous physiological and life-history processes, which have consequences for the population level and beyond. We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model that predicts temperature-induced adaptations for life histories and behaviour for the North-East Arctic stock (NEA) of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to climate warming. The key constraint is temperature-dependent respiratory physiology, and the model includes a number of trade-offs that reflect key physiological and ecological processes. Dynamic programming is used to find an evolutionarily optimal strategy of foraging and energy allocation that maximizes expected lifetime reproductive output given constraints from physiology and ecology. The optimal strategy is then simulated in a population, where survival, foraging behaviour, growth, maturation and reproduction emerge. Using current forcing, the model reproduces patterns of growth, size-at-age, maturation, gonad production and natural mortality for NEA cod. The predicted climate responses are positive for this stock; under a 2°C warming, the model predicted increased growth rates and a larger asymptotic size. Maturation age was unaffected, but gonad weight was predicted to more than double. Predictions for a wider range of temperatures, from 2 to 7°C, show that temperature responses were gradual; fish were predicted to grow faster and increase reproductive investment at higher temperatures. An emergent pattern of higher risk acceptance and increased foraging behaviour was also predicted. Our results provide important insight into the effects of climate warming on NEA cod by revealing the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change. We show how temperature-induced adaptations of behaviour and several life

  7. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  8. North Atlantic summers have warmed more than winters since 1353, and the response of marine zooplankton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamenos, Nicholas A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and measurements show that Atlantic marine temperatures are rising; however, the low temporal resolution of models and restricted spatial resolution of measurements (i) mask regional details critical for determining the rate and extent of climate variability, and (ii) prevent robust determination of climatic impacts on marine ecosystems. To address both issues for the North East Atlantic, a fortnightly resolution marine climate record from 1353–2006 was constructed for shallow inshore waters and compared to changes in marine zooplankton abundance. For the first time summer marine temperatures are shown to have increased nearly twice as much as winter temperatures since 1353. Additional climatic instability began in 1700 characterized by ∼5–65 year climate oscillations that appear to be a recent phenomenon. Enhanced summer-specific warming reduced the abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a key food item of cod, and led to significantly lower projected abundances by 2040 than at present. The faster increase of summer marine temperatures has implications for climate projections and affects abundance, and thus biomass, near the base of the marine food web with potentially significant feedback effects for marine food security. PMID:21148422

  9. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-01

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly

  10. Diving of great shearwaters (Puffinus gravis in cold and warm water regions of the South Atlantic Ocean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A Ronconi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Among the most widespread seabirds in the world, shearwaters of the genus Puffinus are also some of the deepest diving members of the Procellariiformes. Maximum diving depths are known for several Puffinus species, but dive depths or diving behaviour have never been recorded for great shearwaters (P. gravis, the largest member of this genus. This study reports the first high sampling rate (2 s of depth and diving behaviour for Puffinus shearwaters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Time-depth recorders (TDRs were deployed on two female great shearwaters nesting on Inaccessible Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, recording 10 consecutive days of diving activity. Remote sensing imagery and movement patterns of 8 males tracked by satellite telemetry over the same period were used to identify probable foraging areas used by TDR-equipped females. The deepest and longest dive was to 18.9 m and lasted 40 s, but most (>50% dives were <2 m deep. Diving was most frequent near dawn and dusk, with <0.5% of dives occurring at night. The two individuals foraged in contrasting oceanographic conditions, one in cold (8 to 10°C water of the Sub-Antarctic Front, likely 1000 km south of the breeding colony, and the other in warmer (10 to 16°C water of the Sub-tropical Frontal Zone, at the same latitude as the colony, possibly on the Patagonian Shelf, 4000 km away. The cold water bird spent fewer days commuting, conducted four times as many dives as the warm water bird, dived deeper on average, and had a greater proportion of bottom time during dives. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: General patterns of diving activity were consistent with those of other shearwaters foraging in cold and warm water habitats. Great shearwaters are likely adapted to forage in a wide range of oceanographic conditions, foraging mostly with shallow dives but capable of deep diving.

  11. Intensified aridity in northern China during the middle Piacenzian warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Shunchuan; Nie, Junsheng; Breecker, Daniel O.; Luo, Zeng; Song, Yougui

    2017-10-01

    Dryland areas are predicted to expand significantly due to global climate change and such expansion would reduce carbon sequestration and enhance warming, forming a positive feedback. However, a contrasting theory is that Earth's thermal equator will move northward in a warm climate, resulting in precipitation increase and dryland shrinking. A study of past warm periods analogous to future climate can help distinguish between these predictions. The middle Piacenzian warm period during ∼3.3-3 Ma is the best pre-Quaternary analog to late 21st century climate, but Pliocene terrestrial paleoclimatic records that can resolve orbital-timescale variations are scarce. Here we present a pedogenic carbonate oxygen isotope record spanning the entire Pliocene from the Chinese Loess Plateau. The record reveals intensified evaporation-induced aridity during the warm phases of the middle Piacenzian period. These records provide the first evidence demonstrating that intensified evaporation in northern China counteracted any precipitation increase associated with thermal equator migration during the warm periods. These results suggest that Asian drylands will likely expand with future warming, requiring a revision of model simulation which predicts increases in humidity.

  12. Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigstein, Stefan; Dahlke, Flemming T; Stiasny, Martina H; Storch, Daniela; Clemmesen, Catriona; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2017-07-29

    Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for

  13. Rapid transmission of Climate Signals from the North Atlantic to the far Eastern Eurasian continent during the Last Deglacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoyama, Y.; Suga, H.; Naruse, T.; Ogawa, N. O.; Kitazato, H.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Ohkouchi, N.

    2008-12-01

    Last ice age climate is characterized by millennial scale fluctuations between warm and cold states. Coupled glacial-oceanic interactions as well as atmospheric variations are thought as an amplifier and a transmitter of the rapid climate changes in the hemisphere and/or the entire globe. Here we present geochemical fingerprints of palaeoclimate recorded in deep sea sediments from Japan Sea located far-east of the Eurasian continent along with the modeling results obtained using fully coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) to seek the time scale, magnitude and sequences of climate events transmitting in the northern hemisphere from the North Atlantic. Deep sea sediment cores were taken from the Japan Sea and conducted various geochemical analyses. More than 20 radiocarbon measurements for the last deglacial section were made and consistent results of our age model and occurrence horizons of the wide spread tephra layers confirmed the reliability of the reservoir age estimations. Alkenone based sea surface temperature (SST) estimate indicates more than 5 degree C cooling during the latest Pleistocene and 2 temperature minima were marked at the times of both Heinrich event (HE) 1 and the Younger Dryas (YD) cold events. Onset of the B/A warming in our record seems to be synchronous with the North Atlantic data. Terrestrial biomarkers (C29 and C31 n-alkane) were also measured to monitor atmospheric changes and it reached more than 4 folds enhancements of dust influx during the last glacial period. Distinct peaks of terrestrial biomarkers before the major increase in the n- alkanes attributed to intrusion of the warm current into the basin after the Holocene were seen and they are again coincided with HE and YD. Correlated behavior of n-Alkane fluxes to those two major cold episodes that are independent from rapid sea-level rises (ie. 19ka mwp and Mwp1a) suggested the linkage between the Greenland and the Japan Sea climate via the atmosphere. The

  14. Modeling Arctic Ocean heat transport and warming episodes in the 20th century caused by the intruding Atlantic Water

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jia; JIN Mei-bing; Jun Takahashi; Tatsuo Suzuki; Igor V Polyakov; Kohei Mizobata; Moto Ikeda; Fancois J.Saucier; Markus Meier

    2008-01-01

    This study investigates the Arctic Ocean warming episodes in the 20th century using both a high-resolution coupled global climate model and historical observations. The model, with no flux adjustment, reproduces well the Atlantic Water core temperature (AWCT) in the Arctic Ocean and shows that four largest decadalscale warming episodes occurred in the 1930's, 70s, 80s, and 90s, in agreement with the hydrographic observational data. The difference is that there was no pre-warming prior to the 1930s episode, while there were two pre-warming episodes in the 1970s and 80s prior to the 1990s, leading the 1990s into the largest and prolonged warming in the 20th century. Over the last century, the simulated heat transport via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea was estimated to be, on average, 31.32 TW and 14.82TW, respectively, while the Bering Strait also provides 15.94 TW heat into the western Arctic Ocean. Heat transport into the Arctic Ocean by the Atlantic Water via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea correlates significantly with AWCT ( C =0.75 ) at Olag. The modeled North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO ) index has a significant correlation with the heat transport ( C = 0.37 ). The observed AWCT has a significant correlation with both the modeled AWCT (C =0.49) and the heat transport (C =0.41 ).However, the modeled NAO index does not significantly correlate with either the observed AWCT (C =0.03 ) or modeled AWCT (C = 0. 16) at a zero-lag, indicating that the Arctic climate system is far more complex than expected.

  15. Biodiversity of Terrestrial Vegetation during Past Warm Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Ridgwell, A.

    2016-12-01

    Previous modelling studies of vegetation have generally used a small number of plant functional types to understand how the terrestrial biosphere responds to climate changes. Whilst being useful for understanding first order climate feedbacks, this climate-envelope approach makes a lot of assumptions about past vegetation being very similar to modern. A trait-based method has the advantage for paleo modelling in that there are substantially less assumptions made. In a novel use of the trait-based dynamic vegetation model JeDi, forced with output from climate model HadCM3, we explore past biodiversity and vegetation carbon changes. We use JeDi to model an optimal 2000 combinations of fifteen different traits to enable assessment of the overall level of biodiversity as well as individual growth strategies. We assess the vegetation shifts and biodiversity changes in past greenhouse periods to better understand the impact on the terrestrial biosphere. This work provides original insights into the response of vegetation and terrestrial carbon to climate and hydrological changes in high carbon dioxide climates over time, including during the Late Permian and Cretaceous. We evaluate how the location of biodiversity hotspots and species richness in past greenhouse climates is different to the present day.

  16. Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin and its response to North Atlantic cooling and global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Richter, Ingo [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Xie, Shang-Ping [University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2010-08-15

    Atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin plays an important role in regulating North Atlantic salinity and thus the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Potential changes in the strength of this moisture transport are investigated for two different climate-change scenarios: North Atlantic cooling representative of Heinrich events, and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. The effect of North Atlantic cooling is studied using a coupled regional model with comparatively high resolution that successfully simulates Central American gap winds and other important aspects of the region. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in this model leads to a regional decrease of atmospheric moisture but also to an increase in wind speed across Central America via an anomalous pressure gradient. The latter effect dominates, resulting in a 0.13 Sv (1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) increase in overall moisture transport to the Pacific basin. In fresh water forcing simulations with four different general circulation models, the wind speed effect is also present but not strong enough to completely offset the effect of moisture decrease except in one model. The influence of GHG forcing is studied using simulations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archive. In these simulations atmospheric moisture increases globally, resulting in an increase of moisture transport by 0.25 Sv from the Atlantic to Pacific. Thus, in both scenarios, moisture transport changes act to stabilize the thermohaline circulation. The notion that the Andes effectively block moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific basin is not supported by the simulations and atmospheric reanalyses examined here. This indicates that such a blocking effect does not exist or else that higher resolution is needed to adequately represent the steep orography of the Andes. (orig.)

  17. A new record of Atlantic sea surface salinity since 1896 reveals the influence of climate variability and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Andrew; Reverdin, Gilles; Khodri, Myriam; Gastineau, Guillaume

    2017-04-01

    Sea surface salinity (SSS) is a major ocean circulation component and indicator of the hydrological cycle. Here, we investigate an unprecedented Atlantic SSS compilation from 1896-2013 and analyze the main modes of SSS decadal variability. The data are compiled from independently-validated and bias-corrected in situ datasets, including oceanographic research sections, weather ships, and ships-of-opportunity transects, and measurements from the World Ocean Database. The data are binned into 32 boxes of length scale 100-1000km, covering most of the Atlantic between 20°S-70°N with annual (1-2-1 filtered) resolution. Using principal component analysis, we find that the low-latitude (tropical and subtropical) Atlantic and the subpolar Atlantic have distinct variability. Subpolar and low-latitude SSS are negatively correlated, with subpolar SSS anomalies leading low-latitude anomalies by about a decade. Subpolar SSS varies in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), whereas low-latitude SSS varies in phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Additionally, northern tropical SSS is anticorrelated with Sahel rainfall, suggesting that it reflects the position of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone. The long-term SSS trend shows amplification of the mean SSS field, with subpolar freshening and low-latitude salinification. Regressing out the AMO and NAO reconciles the trend since 1970 with the long-term trend. This pattern may reflect an intensification of the hydrological cycle due to global warming, as well as Arctic cryosphere melting and Agulhas inflow.

  18. Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Kamiya, T.; Schwede, S.; Willard, D.A.

    2003-01-01

    We present paleoclimate evidence for rapid (changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Evidence is presented for a long period of sustained regional and North Atlantic-wide warmth with low-amplitude temperature variability between ~450 and 1000 AD. In addition to centennial-scale temperature shifts, the existence of numerous temperature maxima between 2200 and 250 years BP (average ~70 years) suggests that multi-decadal processes typical of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are an inherent feature of late Holocene climate. However, late 19th and 20th century temperature extremes in Chesapeake Bay associated with NAO climate variability exceeded those of the prior 2000 years, including the interval 450-1000 AD, by 2-3oC, suggesting anomalous recent behavior of the climate system.

  19. On the impact of the resolution on the surface and subsurface Eastern Tropical Atlantic warm bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-Rey, Marta; Lazar, Alban

    2016-04-01

    The tropical variability has a great importance for the climate of adjacent areas. Its sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) affect in particular the Brazilian Nordeste and the Sahelian region, as well as the tropical Pacific or the Euro-Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the state-of the art climate models exhibits very large systematic errors in reproducing the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the equatorial and coastal Africa upwelling zones (up to several °C for SST). Theses biases exist already, in smaller proportions though, in forced ocean models (several 1/10th of °C), and affect not only the mixed layer but also the whole thermocline. Here, we present an analysis of the impact of horizontal and vertical resolution changes on these biases. Three different DRAKKAR NEMO OGCM simulations have been analysed, associated to the same forcing set (DFS4.4) with different grid resolutions: "REF" for reference (1/4°, 46 vertical levels), "HH" with a finer horizontal grid (1/12°, 46 v.l.) and "HV" with a finer vertical grid (1/4°, 75 v.l.). At the surface, a more realistic seasonal SST cycle is produced in HH in the three upwellings, where the warm bias decreases (by 10% - 20%) during boreal spring and summer. A notable result is that increasing vertical resolution in HV causes a shift (in advance) of the upwelling SST seasonal cycles. In order to better understand these results, we estimate the three upwelling subsurface temperature errors, using various in-situ datasets, and provide thus a three-dimensional view of the biases.

  20. Impact of increasing inflow of warm Atlantic water on the sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wâhlström, Iréne; Dieterich, Christian; Pemberton, Per; Meier, H. E. Markus

    2016-07-01

    The Laptev Sea is generally a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and a source of methane to the atmosphere. We investigate how sensitive the net sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the Laptev Sea are to observed changes in the inflow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean and in atmospheric conditions occurring after 1990. Using a time-dependent coupled physical-biogeochemical column model, both the physical and biogeochemical effects are investigated in a series of sensitivity experiments. The forcing functions are kept constant at 40 year climatological values except successively selected drivers that vary in time. Their effects are examined by comparing two periods, 1971-1989 and 1991-2009. We find that the flux of carbon dioxide is more sensitive to the increased Atlantic water inflow than the methane exchange. The increased volume transport of water in the Atlantic layer increases the ocean net uptake of carbon dioxide more than the warming of the incoming bottom water as the vertical advection is enhanced in the first case. The methane cycling is mainly affected by the increase in temperature, irrespective of whether the warming originates from the atmosphere or the incoming bottom water, causing increased outgassing to the atmosphere. In summary, our results suggest that the observed changes in the atmosphere and ocean potentially had a substantial impact on carbon dioxide uptake on the Siberian Shelf. However, the results suggest that the impact on the outgassing of methane might have been relatively modest compared to the interannual variability of sea-air fluxes of methane.

  1. Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.;

    2005-01-01

    Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the onl...

  2. In search of "Organ III" strata-a sedimentary record of the Medieval Warm Period (ca. AD 900 to 1300)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The period AD 900 to 1300, internationally referred to as the Medieval Warm Period, is a critical time for the archaeological record of the Southwestern USA. During the Medieval Warm Period both alluvial and eolian sedimentation increased, but not to the magnitude of the middle Holocene (the Altithe...

  3. The influence of Greenland melt water on climate during past and future warm periods: a model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaschek, Michael; Bakker, Pepijn; Renssen, Hans

    2013-04-01

    "Can past climates teach us something about the future?" Under this general question of interest to most palaeoclimate-modeller we specified it more to "Can past changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) related to melt water from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) teach us something about future changes in the AMOC forced by predicted partial melting of the GIS?" To address this question, we developed a series of sensitivity experiments with the global atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice model LOVECLIM to better understand the relationship between the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt over the last and present interglacials (the Eemian and the Holocene, respectively) and put these into perspective of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In terms of radiative forcing, future emission scenarios are different from past orbitally-forced warm periods, as past insolation varied per season and per latitude, whereas radiative forcing due to future greenhouse gas emissions has no seasonal component (i.e. it is an annual forcing) and shows little variation per latitude. However, the two can be compared when we consider the radiative forcing regimes of the different considered warm climates, by focusing on the energy that is potentially available from radiative forcing to melt the GIS. In a similar approach, Swingedouw et al. (2009) have shown in simulations with an AOGCM that the AMOC sensitivity relates non-linear to freshwater input and that under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions the climate is more sensitive compared to warmer climates. They conclude that different climatic conditions share similar patterns in response and that past climates are useful for models to evaluate their abilities in reproducing past events. The authors encourage further model sensitivity testing to gain a better understanding of this highly important question. In order to test this approach we

  4. Warm water events in the southeast Atlantic and their impact on regional and large-scale atmospheric conditions in the CMIP5 model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, Irena; Lutz, Karin; Rathmann, Joachim; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2013-04-01

    Two types of El Niño-like events are described in the South Atlantic: the Atlantic Niño in the equatorial Atlantic and the Benguela Niño off the Namibian and Angolan coast. These warm water events are known to be associated with rainfall anomalies at the West and Southwest African coastal region and harm marine ecosystems and fish populations. The two phenomena are handled separately so far, but the identification of warm water events in our study - via similar variabilities of sea surface temperatures (SST) - based on observed SST data (HadISST1.1) as well as global climate model output from CMIP5, involved the definition of an area mean index that includes both Niño types from the Atlantic region. A multi-model ensemble of the CMIP5 output is used to investigate the impact of Atlantic Niño events on regional atmospheric conditions. Based on the Atlantic SST index, composite analyses give information about anomalous precipitation, air pressure, humidity, evaporation, horizontal wind and vertical air motion patterns over the African continent and the South Atlantic. The Atlantic variability mode is similar to the Pacific El Niño system, but more irregular and less intense. However, recent studies show that the Atlantic influences the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean by the modification of the Walker and Hadley circulations and associated wind stress, thermocline and SST anomalies, further amplified by the Bjerknes positive feedback. As a result, an Atlantic Niño is followed by a La Niña-like phenomenon in the Pacific area with a lag of six months. In our study, the CMIP5 output is considered with respect to its ability of describing the complex connection between the Atlantic and Pacific variability modes. For that purpose, the inter-ocean teleconnection is studied with correlation analyses of the ensemble members of the CMIP5 output by means of the Atlantic index, the Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the Pacific El Niño indices (Ni

  5. Paleoclimate of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period Reconstructed from Oxygen Isotope Ratios of Limpet Shells (Patella vulgata), Northwest Scotland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.; Surge, D. M.; Mithen, S.

    2010-12-01

    Paleoclimate reconstructions from different regions have reported abrupt climate change around 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. The timing of this abrupt climate change is close to the boundary between the Neoglacial (3300-2500 cal yr B.P.) and Roman Warm Period (2500-1600 cal yr B.P.). However, temporal and spatial variability observed in this climate change event raises controversies about the forcing factors driving it and why it has regional variability. Scotland lies in the North Atlantic Ocean, which responds sensitively to climate change. Therefore, even in the case of subtle climate change, the climate variability of Scotland should be able to capture such change. In this study, we expect that paleoclimate reconstructions of the Neoglacial and Roman Warm Period in Scotland will help improve our knowledge of abrupt climate change at 2800-2700 cal yr B.P. Archaeological shell deposits provide a rich source of climate proxy data preserved as oxygen isotope ratios in shell carbonate. Croig Cave on the Isle of Mull, Scotland, contains a nearly continuous accumulation of shells ranging from 800 BC-500 AD and possibly older. This range represents a broad chronology of human use from the late Bronze to Iron Ages and spans the Neoglacial through Roman Warm Period climate episodes. Here, we present seasonal temperature variability of the two climate episodes based on oxygen isotope ratios of ten limpet shells (Patella vulgata) from Croig Cave. Based on AMS dating (2 sigma calibration), the oldest shell was from 3480-3330 cal yr B.P. and the youngest shell was from 2060-1870 cal yr B.P. Our results indicated that estimated temperatures from the Neoglacial limpets average 6.44±0.56°C for coldest winters and 15.06±0.67°C for warmest summers. For the Roman Warm Period limpets, the average is 5.68±0.36°C for coldest winters and 14.14±0.81°C for warmest summers. We compared our estimated temperatures to the present sea surface temperature (SST) from 1961 to 1990 near our

  6. A possible relationship between Global Warming and Lightning Activity in India during the period 1998-2009

    CERN Document Server

    B., Felix Pereira; Girish, T E

    2010-01-01

    Lightning activity on a global scale has been studied season wise using satellite data for the period from 1998 to 2009. Lightning activity shows an increasing trend during the period of study which is highly correlated with atmospheric warming. A similar increasing trend of lightning activity is observed in the Indian region during the pre-monsoon season which is correlated with global lightning trends and warming trends of surface temperature in India. Key words: Global warming, lightning activity, Solar cycle changes

  7. How does Atlantic Multi-decadal Overturning Circulation modulate Tropical circulation and preciptation responses to global warming ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vial, Jessica; Codron, Francis; Cassou, Christophe; Bony, Sandrine

    2017-04-01

    Tropical precipitation response to global warming remains highly uncertain. Most of the uncertainty is attributed to inter-model spread in atmospheric circulation changes. Model diversity in tropical circulation response has been traced further to differences in Tropical surface warming patterns, and in particular to the location of the maximum increase in the Equatorial Pacific. The involved mechanisms point to the importance of ocean-atmosphere interactions assessed through several process metrics. Here, we investigate the role of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the response of the Tropical circulation to increased greenhouse gazes concentration. AMOC has been shown to affect the global Tropics, including the Equatorial surface warming pattern through atmospheric bridges across Central and/or North America. We use two ensembles of the coupled (ocean-atmosphere) CNRM-CM5 climate model that differ from their mean AMOC and apply an abrupt doubling CO2 concentration in both cases. Beyond the modulation role of AMOC in the Tropical circulation and precipitation changes, we show that AMOC has a potential effect on the estimation of the climate sensitivity of the model.

  8. Winter positions of Arctic front during periods of cooling and warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Yu. Mikhailov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Winter positions of the Arctic front (AF during the known periods of the climate cooling (1949–1980 and warming (1981–2012 were analyzed within the sector 10° W – 60° E. The AF positios were determined by the following indicators: 1 a surface pressure; 2 horizontal wind divergence; 3 geostrophic vortex; 4 geostrophic heat advection. The main extrema of these four dynamic characteristics coincide and fall on the latitude 72.5° N. This corresponds to the average position of the AF for a given resolution and confirms correctness of our choice of these characteristics as the AF indicators. Relative differences between mean profiles of all values of the above warm and cold periods were calculated using method of normalization of each value for the corresponding latitude by the standard deviation for the entire period (1949–2012. To study variability of the AF position we used mean yearly winter profiles of the variables under investigation together with the statistical analysis of positions of the extrema within the latitude degrees. For pressure and geostrophic advection positions of the absolute minima were determined while for geostrophic vortex and divergence – positions of the absolute maxima. The data show that according to different criteria the AF average positions for the period 1949–2012 lie within the zone 72.4–73.4 N. The interannual variability of the AF positions lies within the 1–2 degrees of latitude and corresponds to the range of the air temperature variability above the zone of maximal changes in the sea ice area. According to the standard deviation values of the divergence and the geostrophic vortex are the most stable in region of the AF passage. Comparison of differences of the studied characteristics between the warm and cold periods shows that the changes in the AF positions are not statistically significant (P(t < 91% t‑criterion unlike the changes in positions of isolines which characterize

  9. Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period using the NASA/GISS ModelE2-R Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Chandler

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP bear many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In particular, marine and terrestrial paleoclimate data point to high latitude temperature amplification, with associated decreases in sea ice and land ice and altered vegetation distributions that show expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. NASA GISS climate models have been used to study the Pliocene climate since the USGS PRISM project first identified that the mid-Pliocene North Atlantic sea surface temperatures were anomalously warm. Here we present the most recent simulations of the Pliocene using the AR5/CMIP5 version of the GISS Earth System Model known as ModelE2-R. These simulations constitute the NASA contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. We provide discussion of features that show considerable improvement compared with simulations from previous versions of the NASA GISS models, improvement defined here as simulation results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene climate. In some regions even qualitative agreement between model results and paleodata are an improvement over past studies, but the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea in these new simulations is by far the most accurate portrayal ever of this key geographic region by the GISS climate model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterizations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more

  10. Rapid reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water during the peak of the last interglacial period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaasen, Eirik Vinje; Ninnemann, Ulysses S; Irvalı, Nil; Kleiven, Helga Kikki F; Rosenthal, Yair; Kissel, Catherine; Hodell, David A

    2014-03-07

    Deep ocean circulation has been considered relatively stable during interglacial periods, yet little is known about its behavior on submillennial time scales. Using a subcentennially resolved epibenthic foraminiferal δ(13)C record, we show that the influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) was strong at the onset of the last interglacial period and was then interrupted by several prominent centennial-scale reductions. These NADW transients occurred during periods of increased ice rafting and southward expansions of polar water influence, suggesting that a buoyancy threshold for convective instability was triggered by freshwater and circum-Arctic cryosphere changes. The deep Atlantic chemical changes were similar in magnitude to those associated with glaciations, implying that the canonical view of a relatively stable interglacial circulation may not hold for conditions warmer and fresher than at present.

  11. Speleothem Evidence for Temporal-Spatial Variation in East Asian Summer Monsoon since Medieval Warm Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H.-C.; Chu, P. C.; Fan, C. W.

    2012-04-01

    Published annual-to-decadal resolution stalagmite δ18O records since AD 900 from six caves (Dongge, Furong, Heshang, Buddha, Shihua and Wanxiang) in China were analyzed to detect temporal and spatial variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon strength which strongly affects wet/dry conditions in eastern China. The empirical mode decomposition method (Huang et al., 1998) was used to obtain trends of the six cave records. After the base trend was determined, δ18O anomalies of each record were computed by subtracting the base trend. Mean δ18O anomaly values of the detrended time series for each cave record were calculated for four periods: (1) medieval warm period (MWD, AD 900 - 1250), (2) little ice age phase-1 (LIA-1, AD 1250 -1550), (3) little ice age phase-2 (LIA-2, AD 1550 - 1850), and (4) modern period (MD-1, AD 1850 - 2000). From these anomalies, the temporal and spatial variability of wet/dry conditions has been identified. Positive values of the mean δ18O anomalies indicating drier conditions appeared in lower Yangtze River Drainage Area and Southeast Coast Area during MD-1, LIA-1 and MWD, whereas negative values existed in North, South and Yangtze areas of the eastern China. The results agree with Dryness/Wetness index reconstructed by Chinese historic records in general. These results illustrate that wet and dry conditions in different regions of the eastern China could be opposite under the monsoon influence, so that no single speleothem δ18O record could represent monsoonal climate in this vast region. The climatic patterns in the monsoonal region can either warm/wet (cold/dry) or cold/wet (warm/dry) on annual-to-centennial scales. A 128-yr periodic cycle exists in all six cave records, whereas 64-yr and 42-yr periodicities appear in the Shihua, Heshang and Dongge records. These cycles may reflect the influence of the solar activity on the East Asian Summer Monsoon.

  12. The Role of Warm North Atlantic SST in the Formation of Positive Height Anomalies over the Ural Mountains during January 2008

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAN Zhe; LI Shuanglin; MU Mu

    2011-01-01

    The most severe snowstorm and freezing-rain event in the past 50 years hit central and southern China in January 2008. One of the nain reasons for the anomalous climate event was the occurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over middle and high latitudes, particularly the persistent blocking that occurred over the Ural Mountains. Along with atmospheric anomalies, a strong La Nifia event in the Pacific and warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Atlantic were the most significant in the lower boundary. Since a brief analysis suggests that La Nifia exerts no significant impact on the Urals, the key point of focus in this study is on the role of the warmer SSTAs in the North Atlantic. Based on an observational composite, North Atlantic SSTAs pattern when the height anomaly over the Urals is strongly positive is found similar to that in January 2008, but no significant SSTAs occurred elsewhere, such as the Pacific. Using an atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM5, the impact of North Atlantic SSTAs on the extratropical atmosphere circulation in the event was investigated. The results show that the warm SSTAs strengthened the blocking high over the Urals, through anomalous transient eddies. The consistency between the study model and the observational composite indicates that the warm SSTAs in the North Atlantic were indeed an important factor in the formation of the snowstorm disaster of January 2008.

  13. High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the wind-driven coastal warm bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, Sebastian; Bader, Jürgen; Haak, Helmuth; Siongco, Angela Cheska; Jungclaus, Johann H.

    2016-10-01

    We investigate the strong warm bias in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the southeastern tropical Atlantic that occurs in most of the current global climate models. We analyze this bias in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at different horizontal resolutions ranging from 0.1° to 0.4° in the ocean and 0.5° to 1.8° in the atmosphere. High atmospheric horizontal resolution eliminates the SST bias close to the African coast, due to an improved representation of surface wind stress near the coast. This improvement affects coastal upwelling and horizontal ocean circulation, as confirmed with dedicated sensitivity experiments. The wind stress improvements are partly caused by the better represented orography at higher horizontal resolution in the spectral atmospheric model. The reductions of the coastal SST bias obtained through higher horizontal resolution do not, however, translate to a reduction of the large-scale bias extending westward from the African coast into the southeastern tropical Atlantic.

  14. The key role of topography in altering North Atlantic atmospheric circulation during the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. S. R. Pausata

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 yr before present was a period of low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, when vast ice sheets covered large parts of North America and Europe. Paleoclimate reconstructions and modeling studies suggest that the atmospheric circulation was substantially altered compared to today, both in terms of its mean state and its variability. Here we present a suite of coupled model simulations designed to investigate both the separate and combined influences of the main LGM boundary condition changes (greenhouse gases, ice sheet topography and ice sheet albedo on the mean state and variability of the atmospheric circulation as represented by sea level pressure (SLP and 200-hPa zonal wind in the North Atlantic sector. We find that ice sheet topography accounts for most of the simulated changes during the LGM. Greenhouse gases and ice sheet albedo affect the SLP gradient in the North Atlantic, but the overall placement of high and low pressure centers is controlled by topography. Additional analysis shows that North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea ice edge position do not substantially influence the pattern of the climatological-mean SLP field, SLP variability or the position of the North Atlantic jet in the LGM.

  15. South Atlantic intermediate water advances into the North-east Atlantic with reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois-Dauphin, Quentin; Bonneau, Lucile; Colin, Christophe; Montero-Serrano, Jean-Carlos; Montagna, Paolo; Blamart, Dominique; Hebbeln, Dierk; Van Rooij, David; Pons-Branchu, Edwige; Hemsing, Freya; Wefing, Anne-Marie; Frank, Norbert

    2016-06-01

    The Nd isotopic composition (ɛNd) of seawater and cold-water coral (CWC) samples from the Gulf of Cádiz and the Alboran Sea, at a depth of 280-827 m were investigated in order to constrain middepth water mass dynamics within the Gulf of Cádiz over the past 40 ka. ɛNd of glacial and Holocene CWC from the Alboran Sea and the northern Gulf of Cádiz reveals relatively constant values (-8.6 to -9.0 and -9.5 to -10.4, respectively). Such values are similar to those of the surrounding present-day middepth waters from the Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW; ɛNd ˜ -9.4) and Mediterranean Sea Water (MSW; ɛNd ˜ -9.9). In contrast, glacial ɛNd values for CWC collected at thermocline depth (550-827 m) in the southern Gulf of Cádiz display a higher average value (-8.9 ± 0.4) compared to the present-day value (-11.7 ± 0.3). This implies a higher relative contribution of water masses of Mediterranean (MSW) or South Atlantic origin (East Antarctic Intermediate Water, EAAIW). Our study has produced the first evidence of significant radiogenic ɛNd values (˜ -8) at 19, 23-24, and 27 ka, which are coeval with increasing iceberg discharges and a weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Since MOW ɛNd values remained stable during the last glacial period, it is suggested that these radiogenic ɛNd values most likely reflect an enhanced northward propagation of glacial EAAIW into the eastern Atlantic Basin.

  16. Insolation driven biomagnetic response to the Holocene Warm Period in semi-arid East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Suzhen; Deng, Chenglong; Xiao, Jule; Li, Jinhua; Paterson, Greig A; Chang, Liao; Yi, Liang; Qin, Huafeng; Pan, Yongxin; Zhu, Rixiang

    2015-01-23

    The Holocene Warm Period (HWP) provides valuable insights into the climate system and biotic responses to environmental variability and thus serves as an excellent analogue for future global climate changes. Here we document, for the first time, that warm and wet HWP conditions were highly favourable for magnetofossil proliferation in the semi-arid Asian interior. The pronounced increase of magnetofossil concentrations at ~9.8 ka and decrease at ~5.9 ka in Dali Lake coincided respectively with the onset and termination of the HWP, and are respectively linked to increased nutrient supply due to postglacial warming and poor nutrition due to drying at ~6 ka in the Asian interior. The two-stage transition at ~7.7 ka correlates well with increased organic carbon in middle HWP and suggests that improved climate conditions, leading to high quality nutrient influx, fostered magnetofossil proliferation. Our findings represent an excellent lake record in which magnetofossil abundance is, through nutrient availability, controlled by insolation driven climate changes.

  17. Oligocene-Miocene Transition in the North Atlantic Interrupted by Warming: New Records from the Newfoundland Margin, IODP Expedition 342

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R.; Liebrand, D.; van Peer, T. E.; Bohaty, S. M.; Friedrich, O.; Bornemann, A.; Blum, P.; Wilson, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    . Interruption of the OMT δ18O excursion in our record implies that during initial Antarctic glaciation across the OMT, North Atlantic surface waters underwent a dramatic temporary warming.

  18. Influence of projected ocean warming on population growth potential in two North Atlantic copepod species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegert, Christoph; Ji, Rubao; Davis, Cabell S.

    2010-10-01

    Copepods of the genera Pseudocalanus and Centropages play an important role in the North Atlantic ecosystems and have distinctive spatial and temporal patterns depending on physiological adaptation to different environmental conditions. To examine the possible impact of climate change on these biogeographic patterns, potential population growth rate was computed for each species using IPCC projections of sea surface temperature together with chlorophyll distributions from SeaWiFS climatology and published laboratory data on temperature and food-dependent life-history parameters. The results indicate that the predicted temperature increase throughout the North Atlantic will cause temporal and spatial shifts in copepod species population growth potential. The Centropages population is projected to increase in mid-latitudinal shelf areas, e.g. the Gulf of Maine and the North Sea, due to shorter generation times and a longer growing season, while Pseudocalanus is predicted to be less abundant in these regions after 2050. These shifts potentially have a significant impact on the future demographics of pelagic fish species for which the copepods are the major food source.

  19. Tropical Climate Mean State and Variability during the Pliocene Warm Period (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravelo, A. C.; Ford, H. L.; Dekens, P. S.; White, S. M.; Griffith, E. M.

    2013-12-01

    Past studies have shown that the mean climate state during the Pliocene warm period, about 3 - 4 million years ago, differed from present day climate in several ways: global temperature was about 3-4 degrees C warmer, the tropical thermocline was warmer and/or deeper, and meridional and zonal sea surface temperature gradients were reduced due to warmer high latitude temperatures but tropical sea surface temperatures that were similar to today. One of the most striking features of the Pliocene warm period is the El Niño-like (El Padre) mean state of the tropical Pacific, which is thought to have far-field impacts. In this study, we present a synthesis of new and published tropical Pacific data, detailing the mean state and higher frequency variability (e.g., using orbital scale records and measurements made on single foraminifera shells), for the purpose of meeting two main goals. First, we highlight important characteristics of the El Padre mean state, which include average Indo-Pacific warm pool temperatures that were similar and east Pacific cold tongue temperatures and cross-Pacific subsurface temperatures that were warmer than today. Because much of the paleotemperature data comes from Mg/Ca ratios measured in planktonic foraminifera, the impact of possible changes in Mg/Ca of seawater on paleotemperature estimates is addressed. We conclude that Mg/Ca-derived temperature estimates could be adjusted by no more than about 1 degree in order to account for seawater chemistry changes. Second, by examining orbital variability and temperature distributions based on single foraminifera analyses, we evaluate whether the cumulative strength of the many feedbacks that are involved in the generation of climate variability may be impacted by the mean state. Data indicate that the amplitude of orbital variability in surface temperature, and possibly the amplitude of ENSO variability, was reduced during the warm Pliocene compared to today. On orbital timescales, the

  20. Occurrences of warm-adapted mammals in north China over the Quaternary Period and their paleo-environmental significance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    of warm-adapted mammals during that span were the most frequent and most widespread. It means that the climate of the Late Pleistocene experienced the most frequent fluctuation over the whole period of Quaternary.

  1. To what extent can global warming events influence scaling properties of climatic fluctuations in glacial periods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Tommaso; Lepreti, Fabio; Vecchio, Antonio; Carbone, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    The Earth's climate is an extremely unstable complex system consisting of nonlinear and still rather unknown interactions among atmosphere, land surface, ice and oceans. The system is mainly driven by solar irradiance, even if internal components as volcanic eruptions and human activities affect the atmospheric composition thus acting as a driver for climate changes. Since the extreme climate variability is the result of a set of phenomena operating from daily to multi-millennial timescales, with different correlation times, a study of the scaling properties of the system can evidence non-trivial persistent structures, internal or external physical processes. Recently, the scaling properties of the paleoclimate changes have been analyzed by distinguish between interglacial and glacial climates [Shao and Ditlevsen, 2016]. The results show that the last glacial record (20-120 kyr BP) presents some elements of multifractality, while the last interglacial period (0-10 kyr BP), say the Holocene period, seems to be characterized by a mono-fractal structure. This is associated to the absence of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events in the interglacial climate that could be the cause for the absence of multifractality. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the period between 18 and 27 kyr BP, i.e. during the Last Glacial Period, in which a single DO event have been registred. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) we were able to detect a timescale separation within the Last Glacial Period (20-120 kyr BP) in two main components: a high-frequency component, related to the occurrence of DO events, and a low-frequency one, associated to the cooling/warming phase switch [Alberti et al., 2014]. Here, we investigate the scaling properties of the climate fluctuations within the Last Glacial Period, where abrupt climate changes, characterized by fast increase of temperature usually called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, have been particularly pronounced. By using the

  2. Climate and environment reconstruction during the Medieval Warm Period in Lop Nur of Xinjiang, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA ChunMei; WANG FuBao; CAO QiongYing; XIA XunCheng; LI ShengFeng; Li XuSheng

    2008-01-01

    We made multi-proxy analysis of 14C, grain size, microfossils, plant seeds, and geochemical elements on samples from a profile in the central West Lake of Lop Nur. The grain size suggests relatively stable sedimentary environment around the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) with weak storm effect, which is followed by frequent strong storm events. Abundant microfossils and plant seeds in this stage indicate a warm and humid fresh to brackish lake environment. C, N, and stable elements are high in content in the sediments while Rb/Sr, Ba/Sr, and Ti/Sr are in a steady low level. In addition, plenty of red willows lived here prior to about 700 a B.P., indicating a favorable environmental condition. The results indicate that the environment in Lop Nur and its west bank turned to be favorable at about 2200 a B.P., where the Loulan Culture began to thrive. Then the climate and environment came to be in the good condition in the Tang and Song Dynasties, when the storm effect became weaker, rainfall increased and the salty lake water turned to be brackish to fresh lake water. Hence, Iimnic biomass increased with higher spe-cies diversity.

  3. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

    2017-02-01

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

  4. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

    2017-02-14

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

  5. Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

    2017-01-01

    Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

  6. Ocean warming and acidification modulate energy budget and gill ion regulatory mechanisms in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreiss, C M; Michael, K; Lucassen, M; Jutfelt, F; Motyka, R; Dupont, S; Pörtner, H-O

    2015-10-01

    Ocean warming and acidification are threatening marine ecosystems. In marine animals, acidification is thought to enhance ion regulatory costs and thereby baseline energy demand, while elevated temperature also increases baseline metabolic rate. Here we investigated standard metabolic rates (SMR) and plasma parameters of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) after 3-4 weeks of exposure to ambient and future PCO2 levels (550, 1200 and 2200 µatm) and at two temperatures (10, 18 °C). In vivo branchial ion regulatory costs were studied in isolated, perfused gill preparations. Animals reared at 18 °C responded to increasing CO2 by elevating SMR, in contrast to specimens at 10 °C. Isolated gills at 10 °C and elevated PCO2 (≥1200 µatm) displayed increased soft tissue mass, in parallel to increased gill oxygen demand, indicating an increased fraction of gill in whole animal energy budget. Altered gill size was not found at 18 °C, where a shift in the use of ion regulation mechanisms occurred towards enhanced Na(+)/H(+)-exchange and HCO3 (-) transport at high PCO2 (2200 µatm), paralleled by higher Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase activities. This shift did not affect total gill energy consumption leaving whole animal energy budget unaffected. Higher Na(+)/K(+)-ATPase activities in the warmth might have compensated for enhanced branchial permeability and led to reduced plasma Na(+) and/or Cl(-) concentrations and slightly lowered osmolalities seen at 18 °C and 550 or 2200 µatm PCO2 in vivo. Overall, the gill as a key ion regulation organ seems to be highly effective in supporting the resilience of cod to effects of ocean warming and acidification.

  7. The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in the Daihai Area,North China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    金章东; 王苏民

    2003-01-01

    Rb/Sr ratio,CaCO3 content,organic carbon ( Cog ) concentration,magnetic suscep-tibility and clay mineralogy of 4.0 m sediments samples recovered from Daihai Lake,northern China,are presented in the paper. Weathering and paleoclimatic change history during the last2300 years is reconstructed in terms of the variations of Rb/Sr ratios in the sediment sequence,including the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. Our results suggest that the evolution processes of weathering and paleoclimate can be rebuilt in terms of the variations of Rb/Sr ratios in the lake sediment sequence,in combination with magnetic susceptibility,Corg,CaCO3 contents and clay mineralogy.

  8. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-02-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  9. Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, P.; Schmittner, A.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Bi, D.; Broeke, M. R.; Chan, W.-L.; Hu, A.; Beadling, R. L.; Marsland, S. J.; Mernild, S. H.; Saenko, O. A.; Swingedouw, D.; Sullivan, A.; Yin, J.

    2016-12-01

    The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state-of-the-science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090-2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [-3%, -34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse-gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [-15%, -65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to -74% [+4%, -100%] by 2290-2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.

  10. Sources and pathways of 90Sr in the North Atlantic-Arctic region: present day and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yongqi; Drange, Helge; Johannessen, Ola M; Pettersson, Lasse H

    2009-05-01

    The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides (137)Cs and (90)Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948-1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of (90)Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface (90)Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface (90)Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980-1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the (90)Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released (90)Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 x CO(2)). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released (90)Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.

  11. Delimitation of the warm and cold period of the year based on the variation of the Aegean sea surface temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. MAVRAKIS

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the warm and cold season onset is important for the living conditions and the occupational activities of the inhabitants of a given area, and especially for agriculture and tourism. This paper presents a way to estimate the onset/end of the cold and warm period of the year, based on the sinusoidal annual variation of the Sea Surface Temperature. The method was applied on data from 8 stations of the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service, covering the period from 1965-1995. The results showed that the warm period starts sometime between April 28th and May 21st while it ends between October 27th and November 19th in accordance with the findings of other studies. Characteristic of the nature of the parameter used is the very low variance per station – 15 days at maximum. The average date of warm period onset is statistically the same for the largest part of the Aegean, with only one differentiation, that between Kavala and the southern stations ( Thira and Heraklion.

  12. Simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using two versions of the NASA/GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Chandler

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007. Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASA/GISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R. We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM, which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates. Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasise features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean

  13. Permanent El Niño during the Pliocene warm period not supported by coral evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Tsuyoshi; Suzuki, Atsushi; Minobe, Shoshiro; Kawashima, Tatsunori; Kameo, Koji; Minoshima, Kayo; Aguilar, Yolanda M; Wani, Ryoji; Kawahata, Hodaka; Sowa, Kohki; Nagai, Takaya; Kase, Tomoki

    2011-03-10

    The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system during the Pliocene warm period (PWP; 3-5 million years ago) may have existed in a permanent El Niño state with a sharply reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This suggests that during the PWP, when global mean temperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were similar to those projected for near-term climate change, ENSO variability--and related global climate teleconnections-could have been radically different from that today. Yet, owing to a lack of observational evidence on seasonal and interannual SST variability from crucial low-latitude sites, this fundamental climate characteristic of the PWP remains controversial. Here we show that permanent El Niño conditions did not exist during the PWP. Our spectral analysis of the δ(18)O SST and salinity proxy, extracted from two 35-year, monthly resolved PWP Porites corals in the Philippines, reveals variability that is similar to present ENSO variation. Although our fossil corals cannot be directly compared with modern ENSO records, two lines of evidence suggest that Philippine corals are appropriate ENSO proxies. First, δ(18)O anomalies from a nearby live Porites coral are correlated with modern records of ENSO variability. Second, negative-δ(18)O events in the fossil corals closely resemble the decreases in δ(18)O seen in the live coral during El Niño events. Prior research advocating a permanent El Niño state may have been limited by the coarse resolution of many SST proxies, whereas our coral-based analysis identifies climate variability at the temporal scale required to resolve ENSO structure firmly.

  14. Aerosol indirect effect on warm clouds over South-East Atlantic, from co-located MODIS and CALIPSO observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Costantino

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of aerosol interaction with warm boundary layer clouds over the South-East Atlantic. We use aerosol and cloud parameters derived from MODIS observations, together with co-located CALIPSO estimates of the layer altitudes, to derive statistical relationships between aerosol concentration and cloud properties. The CALIPSO products are used to differentiate between cases of mixed cloud-aerosol layers from cases where the aerosol is located well-above the cloud top. This technique allows us to obtain more reliable estimates of the aerosol indirect effect than from simple relationships based on vertically integrated measurements of aerosol and cloud properties. Indeed, it permits us to somewhat distinguish the effects of aerosol and meteorology on the clouds, although it is not possible to fully ascertain the relative contribution of each on the derived statistics.

    Consistently with the results from previous studies, our statistics clearly show that aerosol affects cloud microphysics, decreasing the Cloud Droplet Radius (CDR. The same data indicate a concomitant strong decrease in cloud Liquid Water Path (LWP, which is inconsistent with the hypothesis of aerosol inhibition of precipitation (Albrecht, 1989. We hypothesise that the observed reduction in LWP is the consequence of dry air entrainment at cloud top. The combined effect of CDR decrease and LWP decrease leads to rather small sensitivity of the Cloud Optical Thickness (COT to an increase in aerosol concentration. The analysis of MODIS-CALIPSO coincidences also evidences an aerosol enhancement of low cloud cover. Surprisingly, the Cloud Fraction (CLF response to aerosol invigoration is much stronger when (absorbing particles are located above cloud top than in cases of physical interaction. This result suggests a relevant aerosol radiative effect on low cloud occurrence: absorbing particles above the cloud top may heat the

  15. Aerosol indirect effect on warm clouds over South-East Atlantic, from co-located MODIS and CALIPSO observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Costantino

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we provide a comprehensive analysis of aerosol interaction with warm boundary layer clouds, over South-East Atlantic. We use MODIS retrievals to derive statistical relationships between aerosol concentration and cloud properties, together with co-located CALIPSO estimates of cloud and aerosol layer altitudes. The latter are used to differentiate between cases of mixed and interacting cloud-aerosol layers from cases where the aerosol is located well-above the cloud top. This strategy allows, to a certain extent, to isolate real aerosol-induced effect from meteorology.

    Similar to previous studies, statistics clearly show that aerosol affects cloud microphysics, decreasing the Cloud Droplet Radius (CDR. The same data indicate a concomitant strong decrease in cloud Liquid Water Path (LWP, in evident contrast with the hypothesis of aerosol inhibition of precipitation (Albrecht, 1989. Because of this water loss, probably due to the entrainment of dry air at cloud top, Cloud Optical Thickness (COT is found to be almost insensitive to changes in aerosol concentration. The analysis of MODIS-CALIPSO coincidences also evidenced an aerosol enhancement of low cloud cover. Surprising, the Cloud Fraction (CLF response to aerosol invigoration is much stronger when (absorbing particles are located above cloud top, than in cases of physical interaction, This result suggests a relevant aerosol radiative effect on low cloud occurrence. Heating the atmosphere above the inversion, absorbing particles above cloud top may decrease the vertical temperature gradient, increase the low tropospheric stability and provide favorable conditions for low cloud formation.

    We also focus on the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on precipitation, through the statistical analysis of CDR-COT co-variations. A COT value of 10 is found to be the threshold beyond which precipitation mostly forms, in both clean and polluted environments. For larger COT

  16. The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

    2016-12-01

    The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

  17. Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity and sea level contribution in the mid-Pliocene warm period – Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project PLISMIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenig, S. J.; Dolan, A. M.; De Boer, B.; Stone, E. J.; Hill, D. J.; Deconto, R. M.; Abe-ouchi, A.; Lunt, D. J.; Pollard, D.; Quiquet, A.; Saito, F.; Savage, J.; Van De Wal, R.

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important to constrain the potential impacts of future climate change. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (2.97 to 3.29 Ma) has global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates, nevertheless Pliocene ice l

  18. Decadal and Centennial Variability of Wet and Dry in China since Medieval Warm Period Detected from High Resolution Speleothem Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, P. C.; Li, H.

    2011-12-01

    High-resolution δ18O data (yearly) since AD 900 from six caves (Dongge, Furong, Heshang, Wanxiang, Buddha, Shihua) in China was analyzed to detect decadal and centennial variability of wet/dry in the Asian Monsoon region. The empirical mode decomposition method (Huang et al., 1998) was used to obtain trends for the six cave data. The nine-year running average was conducted on the detrened data (Δδ18O, called anomaly) to filter out high-frequency fluctuation such as the interannual variability. Mean values of anomaly for each cave were calculated for 5 periods: (1) medieval warm period (MWD, AD 900 -AD 1100), (2) little ice age phase-1 (LIA-1, AD 1250 - AD 1550), (3) little ice age phase-2 (LIA-2, AD 1550 - AD 1850), (4) modern period-1 (MD-1, AD 1850 - AD 1950), and (5) modern period-2 (MD-2, AD 1950-2000). Anomalies in MWP and LIA-2 has opposite signs: negative anomaly (strong monsoon) in MWP and positive anomaly (weak monsoon) in LIA-2 in (Dongge, Wanxiang) cave data otherwise in (Budda, Furong, Heshang, Shihua) cave data. In LIA-1, all the six caves have positive anomalies (weak monsoon). In MD-1 (AD 1850-AD 1950), all the six caves have negative anomalies; and in MD-2 (AD 1950 - AD 2000), all the caves except Buddha have negative anomalies. It implies strong monsoon with global warming trend. Spectral analysis was also conducted on the detrended data of the six caves. The above observational studies show the following results: (1) Monsoon strength has spatial variations; (2) Stronger monsoon occurred under both warm and cold climatic conditions. One should not use the relationship of warm condition, i.e., stronger summer monsoon to interpret monsoonal climates in short time scales (less than centennial scale); and (3) Monsoon strengthening continues.

  19. Sources of global warming of the upper ocean on decadal period scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Warren B.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies find global climate variability in the upper ocean and lower atmosphere during the twentieth century dominated by quasi-biennial, interannual, quasi-decadal and interdecadal signals. The quasi-decadal signal in upper ocean temperature undergoes global warming/cooling of ???0.1??C, similar to that occuring with the interannual signal (i.e., El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation), both signals dominated by global warming/cooling in the tropics. From the National Centers for Environmental Prediction troposphere reanalysis and Scripps Institution of Oceanography upper ocean temperature reanalysis we examine the quasi-decadal global tropical diabetic heat storage (DHS) budget from 1975 to 2000. We find the anomalous DHS warming tendency of 0.3-0.9 W m-2 driven principally by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean, overwhelming the tendency by weaker upward shortwave-minus-longwave heat flux anomaly to drive an anomalous DHS cooling tendency. During the peak quasi-decadal warming the estimated dissipation of DHS anomaly of 0.2-0.5 W m-2 into the deep ocean and a similar loss to the overlying atmosphere through air-sea heat flux anomaly are balanced by a decrease in the net poleward Ekman heat advection out of the tropics of 0.4-0.7 W m-2. This scenario is nearly the opposite of that accounting for global tropical warming during the El Nin??o. These diagnostics confirm that even though the global quasi-decadal signal is phase-locked to the 11-year signal in the Sun's surface radiative forcing of ???0.1 W m-2, the anomalous global tropical DHS tendency cannot be driven by it directly.

  20. Thermal habitat index of many northwest Atlantic temperate species stays neutral under warming projected for 2030 but changes radically by 2060.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy L Shackell

    Full Text Available Global scale forecasts of range shifts in response to global warming have provided vital insight into predicted species redistribution. We build on that insight by examining whether local warming will affect habitat on spatiotemporal scales relevant to regional agencies. We used generalized additive models to quantify the realized habitat of 46 temperate/boreal marine species using 41+ years of survey data from 35°N-48°N in the Northwest Atlantic. We then estimated change in a "realized thermal habitat index" under short-term (2030 and long-term (2060 warming scenarios. Under the 2030 scenario, ∼10% of species will lose realized thermal habitat at the national scale (USA and Canada but planktivores are expected to lose significantly in both countries which may result in indirect changes in their predators' distribution. In contrast, by 2060 in Canada, the realized habitat of 76% of species will change (55% will lose, 21% will gain while in the USA, the realized habitat of 85% of species will change (65% will lose, 20% will gain. If all else were held constant, the ecosystem is projected to change radically based on thermal habitat alone. The magnitude of the 2060 warming projection (∼1.5-3°C was observed in 2012 affirming that research is needed on effects of extreme "weather" in addition to increasing mean temperature. Our approach can be used to aggregate at smaller spatial scales where temperate/boreal species are hypothesized to have a greater loss at ∼40°N. The uncertainty associated with climate change forecasts is large, yet resource management agencies still have to address climate change. How? Since many fishery agencies do not plan beyond 5 years, a logical way forward is to incorporate a "realized thermal habitat index" into the stock assessment process. Over time, decisions would be influenced by the amount of suitable thermal habitat, in concert with gradual or extreme warming.

  1. Thermal habitat index of many northwest Atlantic temperate species stays neutral under warming projected for 2030 but changes radically by 2060.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackell, Nancy L; Ricard, Daniel; Stortini, Christine

    2014-01-01

    Global scale forecasts of range shifts in response to global warming have provided vital insight into predicted species redistribution. We build on that insight by examining whether local warming will affect habitat on spatiotemporal scales relevant to regional agencies. We used generalized additive models to quantify the realized habitat of 46 temperate/boreal marine species using 41+ years of survey data from 35°N-48°N in the Northwest Atlantic. We then estimated change in a "realized thermal habitat index" under short-term (2030) and long-term (2060) warming scenarios. Under the 2030 scenario, ∼10% of species will lose realized thermal habitat at the national scale (USA and Canada) but planktivores are expected to lose significantly in both countries which may result in indirect changes in their predators' distribution. In contrast, by 2060 in Canada, the realized habitat of 76% of species will change (55% will lose, 21% will gain) while in the USA, the realized habitat of 85% of species will change (65% will lose, 20% will gain). If all else were held constant, the ecosystem is projected to change radically based on thermal habitat alone. The magnitude of the 2060 warming projection (∼1.5-3°C) was observed in 2012 affirming that research is needed on effects of extreme "weather" in addition to increasing mean temperature. Our approach can be used to aggregate at smaller spatial scales where temperate/boreal species are hypothesized to have a greater loss at ∼40°N. The uncertainty associated with climate change forecasts is large, yet resource management agencies still have to address climate change. How? Since many fishery agencies do not plan beyond 5 years, a logical way forward is to incorporate a "realized thermal habitat index" into the stock assessment process. Over time, decisions would be influenced by the amount of suitable thermal habitat, in concert with gradual or extreme warming.

  2. [Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Wen-jia; Geng, Ting; Chen, Qun; Chen, Chang-qing

    2015-01-01

    By using rice growth period, yield and climate observation data during the recent two decades, the impact of climate warming on rice in Northeast China was investigated by mathematical statistics methods. The results indicated that in the three provinces of Northeast China, the average, maximum and minimum temperatures in rice growing season were on the. rise, and the rainfall presented a downward trend during 1989-2009. Compared to 1990s, the rice whole growth periods of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces in 2000s were prolonged 14 d, 4.5 d and 5.1 d, respectively. The increase of temperature in May, June and September could extend the rice growth period, while that in July would shorten the growth duration. The rice growth duration of registered varieties and experiment sites had a similar increasing trend in Northeast China except for the Heilongjiang Province, and the extension of registered varieties growth period was the main factor causing the prolonged growth period of rice at experiment sites. The change in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures all could affect the rice yield in Northeast China. The increasing temperature significantly increased the rice yield in Heilongjiang Province, especially in the west region of Sanjiang Plain. Except for the south of Liaoning Province, rice yields in other regions of Northeast China were promoted by increasing temperature. Proper measures for breeding, cultivation and farming, could be adopted to fully improve the adaptation of rice to climate warming in Northeast China.

  3. Experimental climate warming enforces seed dormancy in South African Proteaceae but seedling drought resilience exceeds summer drought periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnolds, Judith L; Musil, Charles F; Rebelo, Anthony G; Krüger, Gert H J

    2015-04-01

    Two hypotheses-that elevated night-time temperatures due to climate warming would enforce post-fire dormancy of Proteaceae seed due to low moisture, and that periods without rain during summer would exceed desiccation periods tolerated by Proteaceae seedlings-were tested empirically. Enforced dormancy, i.e., the inability to germinate due to an environmental restraint, was tested by measuring seed germination in 11 Proteaceae species in experimental mesocosms whose soils were artificially elevated by 1.4 and 3.5 °C above ambient by far-red wavelength filtered infrared lamps. Diminished totality of germination and velocities were observed in 91 and 64%, respectively, of the Proteaceae species tested. Drought resilience was tested in one-year-old seedlings of 16 Proteaceae species by withholding water from potted plants during summer in a greenhouse. The most drought-resilient Proteaceae species displayed the lowest initial transpiration rates at field capacity, the smallest declines in transpiration rate with decreasing soil water content, and the lowest water losses by transpiration. Projected drought periods leading to the complete cessation of transpiration in all Proteaceae species greatly exceeded the number of days without rain per month during summer in the current distribution ranges of those species. It was therefore concluded that enforced seed dormancy induced by elevated night-time temperatures is the post-fire recruitment stage of Proteaceae that is most sensitive to climate warming.

  4. Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion

    OpenAIRE

    Belaia, Mariia; Funke, Michael; Glanemann, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    The risk of catastrophes is one of the greatest threats by climate change. Yet, the most common Integrated Assessment Models produce the counterintuitive result that a higher concern about climate change risks does not lead to stronger near-term abatement efforts. This paper probes whether this result still holds in a more refined DICE model that features Epstein-Zin utility, uncertainty about climate sensitivity and is fully coupled with a dynamic representation of the Atlantic thermohaline ...

  5. Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowsett, H.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Robinson, M.M.; Lunt, D.J.; Hill, D.J.; Stoll, D.K.; Foley, K.M.

    2011-01-01

    It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement. In general, the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data-model anomaly exceeds 2 ??C 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from +. 1.5 ??C to >+ 6 ??C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land-sea mask used in the model. Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data-model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies, the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from

  6. Marine methane cycle simulations for the period of early global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elliott, S.; Maltrud, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Moridis, G.J.; Cameron-Smith, P.J.

    2011-01-02

    Geochemical environments, fates, and effects are modeled for methane released into seawater by the decomposition of climate-sensitive clathrates. A contemporary global background cycle is first constructed, within the framework of the Parallel Ocean Program. Input from organics in the upper thermocline is related to oxygen levels, and microbial consumption is parameterized from available rate measurements. Seepage into bottom layers is then superimposed, representing typical seabed fluid flow. The resulting CH{sub 4} distribution is validated against surface saturation ratios, vertical sections, and slope plume studies. Injections of clathrate-derived methane are explored by distributing a small number of point sources around the Arctic continental shelf, where stocks are extensive and susceptible to instability during the first few decades of global warming. Isolated bottom cells are assigned dissolved gas fluxes from porous-media simulation. Given the present bulk removal pattern, methane does not penetrate far from emission sites. Accumulated effects, however, spread to the regional scale following the modeled current system. Both hypoxification and acidification are documented. Sensitivity studies illustrate a potential for material restrictions to broaden the perturbations, since methanotrophic consumers require nutrients and trace metals. When such factors are considered, methane buildup within the Arctic basin is enhanced. However, freshened polar surface waters act as a barrier to atmospheric transfer, diverting products into the deep return flow. Uncertainties in the logic and calculations are enumerated including those inherent in high-latitude clathrate abundance, buoyant effluent rise through the column, representation of the general circulation, and bacterial growth kinetics.

  7. The effects of climate uncertainty on the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernales, Jorge; Häfliger, Tonio; Rogozhina, Irina; Thomas, Maik

    2015-04-01

    The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values [1], representing an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. In these projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) remains uncertain, including areas generally considered stable under a warming climate. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behaviour during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information on the potential vulnerability of the composite parts of the AIS in the future. For this purpose, we have designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the continental-scale ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS [2]. To account for the uncertainties in the configuration of the AIS and climate conditions prior to this period, we employ a wide range of initial ice sheet configurations and climatologies, including modern observations, the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) climate experiments [3], and perturbations to single climatic fields, allowing us to assess the vulnerability of different AIS sectors to specific forcing mechanisms. Our simulations show that the West Antarctic ice sheet remains largely ice-free under the chosen range of climate conditions, except for small portions grounded above sea level. On the contrary, the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) shows no signs of potential collapse, with an ice loss over a few peripheral sectors largely compensated by an increase in ice volume over the interior due to increased precipitation rates and surface temperatures remaining well below the freezing point. Furthermore, our results contrast with existing hypotheses that cast doubt on the stability of the EAIS during the mid-Pliocene warm period. References [1] Cook, C. P., et al

  8. Reconstructing Changes in Deep Ocean Temperature and Global Carbon Cycle during the Early Eocene Warming Trend: High-Resolution Benthic Stable Isotope Records from the SE Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauretano, V.; Zachos, J. C.; Lourens, L. J.

    2014-12-01

    From the late Paleocene to the early Eocene, Earth's surface temperatures generally rose, resulting in an increase of at least 5°C in the deep ocean and culminating in the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). This long-term warming was punctuated by a series of short-lived global warming events known as "hyperthermals", of which the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) represents the most extreme example. At least two other short-term episodes have been identified as hyperthermals: the ETM2 (or Elmo event) at about 53.7 Myr and the ETM3 (or X-event) at about 52.5 Myr. These transient events are marked by prominent carbon isotope excursions (CIEs), recorded in marine and continental sedimentary sequences and driven by fast and massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system. Recently, evidence has indicated the presence of a regular series of hyperthermal events following the peak in temperatures of the EECO. However, continuous records are needed to investigate short- and long- term changes in the climate system throughout the Early Eocene warming trend. Here, we present new high-resolution benthic stable isotope records of the Early Eocene from ODP Site 1263, (Walvis Ridge, SE Atlantic). The carbon and oxygen records document changes in deep-sea temperature and global carbon cycle encompassing the Early Eocene hyperthermal events and the EECO interval. The transition phase to the post-EECO events is distinct by the decoupling of carbon and oxygen isotopes on the long-term scale. Spectral and wavelet analyses suggest the influence of orbital forcing, specifically long and short eccentricity cycles.

  9. A warm and poorly ventilated deep Arctic Mediterranean during the last glacial period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thornalley, D.J.R.; Bauch, H.A.; Gebbie, G.; Guo, W.; Ziegler, M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304838284; Bernasconi, S.M.; Barker, S.; Skinner, L.C.; Yu, J.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in the formation of dense water in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas [the "Arctic Mediterranean" (AM)] probably contributed to the altered climate of the last glacial period. We examined past changes in AM circulation by reconstructing radiocarbon ventilation ages of the deep Nordic Seas over

  10. A warm and poorly ventilated deep Arctic Mediterranean during the last glacial period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thornalley, D.J.R.; Bauch, H.A.; Gebbie, G.; Guo, W.; Ziegler, M.; Bernasconi, S.M.; Barker, S.; Skinner, L.C.; Yu, J.

    2015-01-01

    Changes in the formation of dense water in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas [the "Arctic Mediterranean" (AM)] probably contributed to the altered climate of the last glacial period. We examined past changes in AM circulation by reconstructing radiocarbon ventilation ages of the deep Nordic Seas over

  11. Modelling the mid-Pliocene Warm Period climate with the IPSL coupled model and its atmospheric component LMDZ5A

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Contoux

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the experimental design and model results of the climate simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, ca. 3.3–3 Ma using the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace model (IPSLCM5A, in the framework of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP. We use the IPSL atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM, and its atmospheric component alone (AGCM, to simulate the climate of the mPWP. Boundary conditions such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs, topography, ice-sheet extent and vegetation are derived from the ones imposed by the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP, described in Haywood et al. (2010, 2011. We first describe the IPSL model main features, and then give a full description of the boundary conditions used for atmospheric model and coupled model experiments. The climatic outputs of the mPWP simulations are detailed and compared to the corresponding control simulations. The simulated warming relative to the control simulation is 1.94 °C in the atmospheric and 2.07 °C in the coupled model experiments. In both experiments, warming is larger at high latitudes. Mechanisms governing the simulated precipitation patterns are different in the coupled model than in the atmospheric model alone, because of the reduced gradients in imposed SSTs, which impacts the Hadley and Walker circulations. In addition, a sensitivity test to the change of land-sea mask in the atmospheric model, representing a sea-level change from present-day to 25 m higher during the mid-Pliocene, is described. We find that surface temperature differences can be large (several degrees Celsius but are restricted to the areas that were changed from ocean to land or vice versa. In terms of precipitation, impact on polar regions is minor although the change in land-sea mask is significant in these areas.

  12. Sea Level During Past Warm Periods - Unraveling Interactions Between Climate, Ice, Crust, and Mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymo, M. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Rovere, A.; O'Leary, M.; Sandstrom, R. M.; Austermann, J.; Hearty, P. J.; Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in sea level, whether rapid or gradual, influence the style and preservation of shorelines and near-shore features including fossil reefs, paleo-sea cliffs and scarps, as well as intertidal and subtidal facies and biota. Using insight from modern shoreline systems, members of the PLIOMAX FESD project have mapped mid-Pliocene, MIS11, and MIS5e shorelines at numerous localities around the world and then modeled the effects of subsequent glacial isostatic adjustment on their current position. For MIS5e we find evidence for a rapid rise in sea level in the later phase of the interglacial, consistent with a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Estimates for maximum sea level during MIS5e, between 6 and 9 m, are in agreement with other studies and imply mass loss from ice sheets at both poles. For MIS11, which appears to have been slightly warmer than MIS5e, our best estimate of sea level rise is 6-13 m, a value subsequently narrowed to 8.5-12 m. Recent advances in ice sheet models also illustrate the potential for a substantial Antarctic contribution to elevated sea-level during MIS5e and other Pliestocene interglacials including MIS11. For the Pliocene interval around 3 Ma, we cannot place useful bounds on sea level because shoreline features have been vertically displaced many tens of meters by mantle dynamic topographic changes of uncertain magnitude and, probably to a lesser degree, by flexure associated with sediment redistribution. However, these once horizontal shorelines, which are sometimes hundreds of kilometers long, provide useful targets against which to measure the performance of time-dependent mantle convection models. Ultimately, the paleo-shoreline data is telling us that when global climate warming is more than 2°C (relative to pre-industrial, or >1°C relative to today), significant loss of ice mass occurs at high latitudes equivalent to a minimum rise in sea level of 6m.

  13. Sensitivity of North Atlantic subpolar gyre and overturning to stratification-dependent mixing: response to global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzeion, Ben; Levermann, Anders; Mignot, Juliette

    2010-04-01

    We use a reduced complexity climate model with a three-dimensional ocean component and realistic topography to investigate the effect of stratification-dependent mixing on the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), to idealized CO2 increase and peaking scenarios. The vertical diffusivity of the ocean interior is parameterized as κ ˜ N -α, where N is the local buoyancy frequency. For all parameter values 0 ≤ α ≤ 3, we find the SPG, and subsequently the AMOC, to weaken in response to increasing CO2 concentrations. The weakening is significantly stronger for α ≥ αcr ≈ 1.5. Depending on the value of α, two separate model states develop. These states remain different after the CO2 concentration is stabilized, and in some cases even after the CO2 concentration has been decreased again to the pre-industrial level. This behaviour is explained by a positive feedback between stratification and mixing anomalies in the Nordic Seas, causing a persistent weakening of the SPG.

  14. Sensitivity of North Atlantic subpolar gyre and overturning to stratification-dependent mixing: response to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marzeion, Ben [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, EAPS, Cambridge, MA (United States); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); University of Innsbruck, Tropical Glaciology Group, Institute of Geography, Innsbruck (Austria); Levermann, Anders [Potsdam University, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Institute of Physics, Potsdam (Germany); Mignot, Juliette [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, LOCEAN, Paris (France)

    2010-04-15

    We use a reduced complexity climate model with a three-dimensional ocean component and realistic topography to investigate the effect of stratification-dependent mixing on the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), to idealized CO{sub 2} increase and peaking scenarios. The vertical diffusivity of the ocean interior is parameterized as {kappa} {proportional_to} N {sup -{alpha}}, where N is the local buoyancy frequency. For all parameter values 0 {<=} {alpha} {<=} 3, we find the SPG, and subsequently the AMOC, to weaken in response to increasing CO{sub 2} concentrations. The weakening is significantly stronger for {alpha} {>=} {alpha}{sub cr} {approx} 1.5. Depending on the value of {alpha}, two separate model states develop. These states remain different after the CO{sub 2} concentration is stabilized, and in some cases even after the CO{sub 2} concentration has been decreased again to the pre-industrial level. This behaviour is explained by a positive feedback between stratification and mixing anomalies in the Nordic Seas, causing a persistent weakening of the SPG. (orig.)

  15. Tradeoffs between global warming and day length on the start of the carbon uptake period in seasonally cold ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Cremonese, Edoardo; Hammerle, Albin; Hörtnagl, Lukas; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; di Cella, Umberto Morra

    2013-12-16

    It is well established that warming leads to longer growing seasons in seasonally cold ecosystems. Whether this goes along with an increase in the net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake is much more controversial. We studied the effects of warming on the start of the carbon uptake period (CUP) of three mountain grasslands situated along an elevational gradient in the Alps. To this end we used a simple empirical model of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, calibrated and forced with multi-year empirical data from each site. We show that reductions in the quantity and duration of daylight associated with earlier snowmelts were responsible for diminishing returns, in terms of carbon gain, from longer growing seasons caused by reductions in daytime photosynthetic uptake and increases in nighttime losses of CO2. This effect was less pronounced at high, compared to low, elevations, where the start of the CUP occurred closer to the summer solstice when changes in day length and incident radiation are minimal.

  16. The palaeoclimatic significance of Eurasian Giant Salamanders (Cryptobranchidae: Zaissanurus, Andrias) - indications for elevated humidity in Central Asia during global warm periods (Eocene, late Oligocene warming, Miocene Climate Optimum)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasilyan, Davit; Böhme, Madelaine; Winklhofer, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Cryptobranchids represent a group of large sized (up to 1.8 m) tailed amphibians known since the Middle Jurassic (Gao & Shubin 2003). Two species are living today in eastern Eurasia: Andrias davidianus (China) and A. japonicus (Japan). Cenozoic Eurasian fossil giant salamanders are known with two genera and two or three species from over 30 localities, ranging from the Late Eocene to the Early Pliocene (Böhme & Ilg 2003). The Late Eocene species Zaissanurus beliajevae is restricted to the Central Asian Zaissan Basin (SE-Kazakhstan, 50°N, 85°E), whereas the Late Oligocene to Early Pliocene species Andrias scheuchzeri is distributed from Central Europe to the Zaissan Basin. In the latter basin the species occur during two periods; the latest Oligocene and the late Early to early Middle Miocene (Chkhikvadse 1982). Andrias scheuchzeri is osteological indistinguishable from both recent species, indicating a similar ecology (Westfahl 1958). To investigate the palaeoclimatic significance of giant salamanders we analyzed the climate within the present-day distribution area and at selected fossil localities with independent palaeoclimate record. Our results indicate that fossil and recent Andrias species occur in humid areas where the mean annual precipitation reach over 900 mm (900 - 1.300 mm). As a working hypothesis (assuming a similar ecology of Andrias and Zaissanurus) we interpret occurrences of both fossil Eurasian giant salamanders as indicative for humid palaeoclimatic conditions. Based on this assumption the Late Eocene, the latest Oligocene (late Oligocene warming) and the late Early to early Middle Miocene (Miocene Climatic Optimum) of Central Asia (Zaissan Basin) are periods of elevated humidity, suggesting a direct (positive) relationship between global climate and Central Asian humidity evolution. Böhme M., Ilg A. 2003: fosFARbase, www.wahre-staerke.com/ Chkhikvadze V.M. 1982. On the finding of fossil Cryptobranchidae in the USSR and Mongolia. Vertebrata

  17. Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

    2017-01-01

    Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

  18. Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Doo-Sun R; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C L; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

    2017-01-30

    Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

  19. Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

    2017-01-01

    Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate. PMID:28134343

  20. Lunar periodicity and the timing of river entry in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuparinen, A; O'Hara, R B; Merilä, J

    2009-07-01

    Historical catch records of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from three rivers discharging to the Baltic Sea in an area free from tides and from strong effects of the moon on illumination were analysed to investigate whether timing of S. salar river entry was associated with lunar cycles directly. Although a significant effect of lunar phase on river entry was detected, with more fish entering rivers around the full moon than other phases, the effect of the lunar cycle was very small compared with other sources of variation. Hence, the biological role of lunar cycle as a determinant of the timing of S. salar runs in the investigated populations was negligible, suggesting that lunar cycle per se does not play a role in the timing of S. salar river entry.

  1. Thermosensitive period of sex determination in the coral-reef damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus and the implications of projected ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, G. G.; Donelson, J. M.; Munday, P. L.

    2017-03-01

    Higher temperatures associated with climate change have the potential to significantly alter the population sex ratio of species with temperature-dependent sex determination. Whether or not elevated temperature affects sex determination depends on both the absolute temperature experienced and the stage of development at which the thermal conditions occur. We explored the importance of exposure timing during early development in the coral reef fish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus, by increasing water temperature 1.5 or 3 °C above the summer average (28.5 °C) at different stages of development. We also measured the effect of treatment temperature on fish size and condition, in order to gauge how the thermal threshold for sex-ratio bias may compare with other commonly considered physiological metrics. Increasing grow-out temperature from 28.5 to 30 °C had no effect on the sex ratio of offspring, whereas an increase to 31.5 °C (+3 °C) produced a strong male bias (average 90%). The thermosensitive period for this species lasted between 25 and 60 d post hatching, with the bias in sex ratio greater the earlier that fish experienced warm conditions. Temperatures high enough to bias the sex ratio are likely to be seen first during late summer (January and February) and would affect clutches produced late in the breeding season. There was no change to fish condition in response to temperature; however, the two higher temperature treatments produced significantly smaller fish at sampling. Clutches produced early in the season could buffer the population from a skewed sex ratio, as their development will remain below the thermal threshold; however, continued ocean warming could mean that clutches produced earlier in the breeding season would also be affected in the longer term. A skewed sex ratio could be detrimental to population viability by reducing the number of females in the breeding population.

  2. Molecular phylogeny of bark and ambrosia beetles reveals multiple origins of fungus farming during periods of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordal Bjarte H

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fungus farming is an unusual life style in insects that has evolved many times in the wood boring weevils named ‘ambrosia beetles’. Multiple occurrences of this behaviour allow for a detailed comparison of the different origins of fungus farming through time, its directionality, and possible ancestral states. We tested these hypotheses with a phylogeny representing the largest data set to date, nearly 4 kb of nucleotides from COI, EF-1α, CAD, ArgK, 28S, and 200 scolytine taxa. Results Phylogenetic analyses using Bayesian or parsimony approaches placed the root of Scolytinae close to the tribe Scolytini and Microborus, but otherwise indicated low resolution at older nodes. More recent clades were well resolved, including ten origins of fungus farming. There were no subsequent reversals to bark or phloem feeding in the fungus farming clades. The oldest origin of fungus farming was estimated near 50 Ma, long after the origin of Scolytinae (100-120 Ma. Younger origins included the species rich Xyleborini, dated to 21 Ma. Sister group comparisons and test of independence between traits indicated that neither gregarious larval feeding nor regular inbreeding by sibling mating was strongly correlated with the origin of fungus farming. Conclusion Origins of fungus farming corresponded mainly with two periods of global warming in the Cenozoic era, which were characterised by broadly distributed tropical forests. Hence, it seems likely that warm climates and expanding tropical angiosperm forests played critical roles in the successful radiation of diverse fungus farming groups. However, further investigation will likely reveal additional biological factors that promote fungus farming.

  3. Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age Impacts on Prehistoric Human Migrations in the Eastern North American Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friesen, M.; Finkelstein, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    The eastern North American Arctic has a complex 5,000-year prehistory, during which many human population movements occurred over large distances. Archaeologists have interpreted these movements as resulting from many factors, however the effects of climate change are often hypothesized as primary drivers that can "push" human groups to leave some regions, or "pull" them to move to others. In this paper, we will examine climate change over the past millennium-and-a-half, and in particular at the two widespread, though variable, climate change events known as the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. We synthesize the latest paleoclimatological information on the timing and magnitude of these periods across the eastern Arctic, and assess the degree to which they coincide with current understanding of major population movements. In particular, we assess climate's potential impact on 1) the expansion of Late Dorset Paleo-Inuit to the High Arctic; 2) the migration of Thule Inuit from Alaska to the eastern Arctic; and 3) the abandonment of northern regions and new settlement of southern regions by Inuit in the mid-second millennium AD.

  4. Effects of Climate Warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Thermal Conditions and Plankton Dynamics in Northern Hemispheric Lakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dieter Gerten

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Impacts of climate warming on freshwater ecosystems have been documented recently for a variety of sites around the globe. Here we provide a review of studies that report long-term (multidecadal effects of warming trends on thermal properties and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes. We show that higher lake temperatures, shorter periods with ice cover, and shorter stagnation periods were common trends for lakes across the hemisphere in response to the warmer conditions. Only for shallow dimictic lakes was it observed that deep-water temperatures decreased. Moreover, it became evident that phytoplankton dynamics and primary productivity altered in conjunction with changes in lake physics. Algal spring blooms developed early and were more pronounced in several European lakes after mild winters with short ice cover periods, and primary productivity increased in North American lakes. Effects of elevated temperatures on zooplankton communities were seen in an early development of various species and groups, as is documented for cladocerans, copepods, and rotifers in European lakes. Furthermore, thermophile species reached higher abundance in warmer years.

  5. Early enrichment effects on brain development in hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): no evidence for a critical period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Näslund, Joacim; Aarestrup, Kim; Thomassen, Søren T.;

    2012-01-01

    In hatcheries, fish are normally reared in barren environments, which have been reported to affect their phenotypic development compared with wild conspecifics. In this study, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) alevins were reared in conventional barren hatchery trays or in either of two types...... of structurally enriched trays. We show that increased structural complexity during early rearing increased brain size in all investigated brain substructures. However, these effects disappeared over time after transfer to barren tanks for external feeding. Parallel to the hatchery study, a group of salmon parr...... was released into nature and recaptured at smoltification. These stream-reared smolts developed smaller brains than the hatchery reared smolts, irrespective of initial enrichment treatment. These novel findings do not support the hypothesis that there is a critical early period determining the brain growth...

  6. Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2016-06-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35-50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world.

  7. Adjustments of molecular key components of branchial ion and pH regulation in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in response to ocean acidification and warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Katharina; Kreiss, Cornelia M; Hu, Marian Y; Koschnick, Nils; Bickmeyer, Ulf; Dupont, Sam; Pörtner, Hans-O; Lucassen, Magnus

    2016-03-01

    Marine teleost fish sustain compensation of extracellular pH after exposure to hypercapnia by means of efficient ion and acid-base regulation. Elevated rates of ion and acid-base regulation under hypercapnia may be stimulated further by elevated temperature. Here, we characterized the regulation of transepithelial ion transporters (NKCC1, NBC1, SLC26A6, NHE1 and 2) and ATPases (Na(+)/K(+) ATPase and V-type H(+) ATPase) in gills of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) after 4 weeks of exposure to ambient and future PCO2 levels (550 μatm, 1200 μatm, 2200 μatm) at optimum (10 °C) and summer maximum temperature (18 °C), respectively. Gene expression of most branchial ion transporters revealed temperature- and dose-dependent responses to elevated PCO2. Transcriptional regulation resulted in stable protein expression at 10 °C, whereas expression of most transport proteins increased at medium PCO2 and 18 °C. mRNA and protein expression of distinct ion transport proteins were closely co-regulated, substantiating cellular functional relationships. Na(+)/K(+) ATPase capacities were PCO2 independent, but increased with acclimation temperature, whereas H(+) ATPase capacities were thermally compensated but decreased at medium PCO2 and 10 °C. When functional capacities of branchial ATPases were compared with mitochondrial F1Fo ATP-synthase strong correlations of F1Fo ATP-synthase and ATPase capacities generally indicate close coordination of branchial aerobic ATP demand and supply. Our data indicate physiological plasticity in the gills of cod to adjust to a warming, acidifying ocean within limits. In light of the interacting and non-linear, dose-dependent effects of both climate factors the role of these mechanisms in shaping resilience under climate change remains to be explored.

  8. Late Devonian glacial deposits from the eastern United States signal an end of the mid-Paleozoic warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezinski, D.K.; Cecil, C.B.; Skema, V.W.; Stamm, R.

    2008-01-01

    A Late Devonian polymictic diamictite extends for more than 400??km from northeastern Pennsylvania across western Maryland and into east-central West Virginia. The matrix-supported, unbedded, locally sheared diamictite contains subangular to rounded clasts up to 2??m in diameter. The mostly rounded clasts are both locally derived and exotic; some exhibit striations, faceting, and polish. The diamictite commonly is overlain by laminated siltstone/mudstone facies associations (laminites). The laminites contain isolated clasts ranging in size from sand and pebbles to boulders, some of which are striated. The diamictite/laminite sequence is capped by massive, coarse-grained, pebbly sandstone that is trough cross-bedded. A stratigraphic change from red, calcic paleo-Vertisols in strata below the diamictite to non-calcic paleo-Spodosols and coal beds at and above the diamictite interval suggests that the climate became much wetter during deposition of the diamictite. The diamictite deposit is contemporaneous with regressive facies that reflect fluvial incision during the Late Devonian of the Appalachian basin. These deposits record a Late Devonian episode of climatic cooling so extreme that it produced glaciation in the Appalachian basin. Evidence for this episode of climatic cooling is preserved as the interpreted glacial deposits of diamictite, overlain by glaciolacustrine varves containing dropstones, and capped by sandstone interpreted as braided stream outwash. The Appalachian glacigenic deposits are contemporaneous with glacial deposits in South America, and suggest that Late Devonian climatic cooling was global. This period of dramatic global cooling may represent the end of the mid-Paleozoic warm interval that began in the Middle Silurian. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Correlation of Ice-Rafted Detritus in South Atlantic Sediments with Climate Proxies in Polar Ice over the Last Glacial Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon L. Kanfoush

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous study identified 6–7 millennial-scale episodes of South Atlantic ice-rafted sediment deposition (SA events during the glaciation. Questions remain, however, regarding their origin, significance for sea-ice and/or Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, and relationship to climate. Here I correlate sediment core (TTN057–21 SA events to Greenland and Antarctic ice using two independent methods, stable isotopes and geomagnetic paleointensity, placing SA events in the context of polar climate change in both hemispheres. Marine isotopic stage (MIS 3 SA events generally coincided with Greenland interstadials and with cooling following Antarctic warm events (A1-A4. This anti-phase behavior is best illustrated when SA0 coincided with both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and Bolling-Allerod warming in Greenland. Moreover, SA events coincide with sea-level rises during the deglaciation (mwp1A and MIS 3 (30.4, 38.3, 43.7, 51.5 ka, implying unpinning of grounded Weddell Sea region ice masses discharged debris-laden bergs that had a chilling effect on South Atlantic surface temperatures.

  10. Reproduction period of Mimagoniates microlepis, from an Atlantic Forest Stream in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Rennó Braga

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Mimagoniates microlepis was collected between January and December/2002. Three sample points were chosen at higher, medium and lower portions of Ribeirão river, located at the east of Paraná state. The reproduction period was observed by the frequency of gonad developmental stages, variation of the gonosomatic relation (RGS and gonad condition (K. The average length at the first sexual maturity (L50 and the average length when 100% of individuals were adults (L100 were calculated. The intensity of the reproductive activity (IAR was estimated at each sample point. The reproduction period started in the winter and ended at the end of spring. The high values of IAR encountered demonstrated that the reproductive activity occurred in the whole study area, mainly at the middle portion of the river. Apparently M. microlepis synchronize its fecundation and spawning with the rain regimes using the most suitable times for the cospecific encounters and offspring survival.Exemplares de Mimagoniates microlepis foram coletados entre janeiro e dezembro de 2002. Foram escolhidos três pontos amostrais localizados em regiões a montante, média e a jusante do rio Ribeirão no litoral do Paraná. A época reprodutiva foi determinada através da freqüência de estágios de desenvolvimento das gônadas, índice gonadosomático (RGS e fator de condição gonadal (K. O comprimento médio da primeira maturação (L50 e o comprimento médio em que 100% dos indivíduos são adultos (L100 foi calculado. Também foi estimado o índice de atividade reprodutiva (IAR em cada ponto amostral. O período reprodutivo teve inicio durante o inverno e terminou ao final da primavera. Os valores altos do IAR demonstram que a atividade reprodutiva ocorre em toda área estudada e principalmente na porção média do rio. Aparentemente M. microlepis sincroniza sua fecundação e desova com o ciclo das chuvas, utilizando os momentos mais adequados para encontros coespecíficos e para

  11. Persistent Intermediate Water Warming during Cold Stadials in the SE Nordic Seas during the Last 65 Kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, T. L.; Ezat, M.; Groeneveld, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the Nordic seas, conversion of inflowing warm Atlantic surface water to deep cold water through convection is closely linked with climate. During the last glacial period climate underwent rapid millennial-scale variability known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, consisting of warm interstadials and cold stadials. Here we present the first benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca-d18O record from the Nordic seas in order to reconstruct the ocean circulation on DO timescales. The record confirms that modern-like convection took place in the Nordic seas during interstadials with cold bottom water temperatures (BWT) close to modern temperatures. The results show gradual and pronounced BWT increases by 2-5 °C during stadials indicating a stop or near-stop in convection. The BWT peaks are followed by an abrupt drop in temperature at the onset of interstadials indicating the abrupt start of convection and renewed generation of cold deep water. The rise in BWT during stadials confirms earlier interpretations of subsurface inflow of warm Atlantic water below a halocline reaching >1.2 km water depth. The results suggest that warm Atlantic Water never ceased to flow into the Nordic seas during the glacial period with inflow at the surface during the Holocene and warm interstadials switching to subsurface and intermediate inflow during cold stadials. Our results suggest that it is the vertical shifts in the position of the warm Atlantic Water that cause the abrupt surface warmings.

  12. The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delworth, Thomas L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Yang, Xiaosong; Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Rong

    2016-07-01

    Pronounced climate changes have occurred since the 1970s, including rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, large-scale warming and increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic. Anthropogenic radiative forcing is likely to have played a major role in these changes, but the relative influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability is not well established. The above changes have also occurred during a period in which the North Atlantic Oscillation has shown marked multidecadal variations. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in these rapid changes through its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat transport. We use climate models to show that observed multidecadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation can induce multidecadal variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and poleward ocean heat transport in the Atlantic, extending to the Arctic. Our results suggest that these variations have contributed to the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, Northern Hemisphere warming, and changing Atlantic tropical storm activity, especially in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These multidecadal variations are superimposed on long-term anthropogenic forcing trends that are the dominant factor in long-term Arctic sea ice loss and hemispheric warming.

  13. Vigorous exchange between the Indian and Atlantic oceans at the end of the past five glacial periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Frank J C; Acheson, Ruth; Brummer, Geert-Jan A; De Ruijter, Wilhelmus P M; Schneider, Ralph R; Ganssen, Gerald M; Ufkes, Els; Kroon, Dick

    2004-08-05

    The magnitude of heat and salt transfer between the Indian and Atlantic oceans through 'Agulhas leakage' is considered important for balancing the global thermohaline circulation. Increases or reductions of this leakage lead to strengthening or weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning and associated variation of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Here we show that modern Agulhas waters, which migrate into the south Atlantic Ocean in the form of an Agulhas ring, contain a characteristic assemblage of planktic foraminifera. We use this assemblage as a modern analogue to investigate the Agulhas leakage history over the past 550,000 years from a sediment record in the Cape basin. Our reconstruction indicates that Indian-Atlantic water exchange was highly variable: enhanced during present and past interglacials and largely reduced during glacial intervals. Coherent variability of Agulhas leakage with northern summer insolation suggests a teleconnection to the monsoon system. The onset of increased Agulhas leakage during late glacial conditions took place when glacial ice volume was maximal, suggesting a crucial role for Agulhas leakage in glacial terminations, timing of interhemispheric climate change and the resulting resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

  14. The OmegaWhite Survey for short-period variable stars - IV. Discovery of the warm DQ white dwarf OW J175358.85-310728.9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macfarlane, S. A.; Woudt, P. A.; Dufour, P.; Ramsay, G.; Groot, P. J.; Toma, R.; Warner, B.; Paterson, K.; Kupfer, T.; van Roestel, J.; Berdnikov, L.; Dagne, T.; Hardy, F.

    2017-09-01

    We present the discovery and follow-up observations of the second known variable warm DQ white dwarf OW J175358.85-310728.9 (OW J1753-3107). OW J1753-3107 is the brightest of any of the currently known warm or hot DQ and was discovered in the OmegaWhite Survey as exhibiting optical variations on a period of 35.5452 (2) min, with no evidence for other periods in its light curves. This period has remained constant over the last 2 yr and a single-period sinusoidal model provides a good fit for all follow-up light curves. The spectrum consists of a very blue continuum with strong absorption lines of neutral and ionized carbon, a broad He i λ4471 line and possibly weaker hydrogen lines. The C i lines are Zeeman split, and indicate the presence of a strong magnetic field. Using spectral Paschen-Back model descriptions, we determine that OW J1753-3107 exhibits the following physical parameters: Teff = 15 430 K, log (g) = 9.0, log (N(C)/N(He)) = -1.2 and the mean magnetic field strength is Bz =2.1 MG. This relatively low temperature and carbon abundance (compared to the expected properties of hot DQs) is similar to that seen in the other warm DQ SDSS J1036+6522. Although OW J1753-3107 appears to be a twin of SDSS J1036+6522, it exhibits a modulation on a period slightly longer than the dominant period in SDSS J1036+6522 and has a higher carbon abundance. The source of variations is uncertain, but they are believed to originate from the rotation of the magnetic white dwarf.

  15. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  16. The wave climate of the Northeast Atlantic over the period 1955-1994: the WASA wave hindcast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guenther, H.; Rosenthal, W.; Stawarz, M. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Gewaesserphysik; Carretero, J.C.; Gomez, M.; Lozano, I.; Serrano, O. [Programa de Clima Maritimo (Puertos del Estado), Madrid (Spain); Reistad, M. [Det Norske Meteorologiske Inst., Bergen (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The European project ``waves and storms in the North Atlantic`` (WASA) has been set up to prove, or to disprove, hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic and adjacent seas in the present century. A major obstacle for assessing changes in storm and wave conditions are inhomogeneities in the observational records, both in the local observations and in the analysed products, which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds and waves. Therefore, changes in the wave climate were assessed with a state-of-the-art wave model using wind analyses. Within the scope of the WASA project, a 40 year reconstruction (1955-1994) of the wave climate in the North Atlantic was completed using the WAM wave model. The input wind fields were assumed to be reasonably homogeneous with time in the area south of 70 N and east of 20 W, and it was expected that the hindcast wave data would reliably describe the space-time evolution of wave conditions in this area. The results of the hindcast experiment are presented in this article. The main conclusion was that the wave climate in most of the Northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on time scales of decades. Part of variability was found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation. As a general result we noted an increase of the maximum annual significant wave height over the last 40 years of about 5 to 10 cm/year for large parts of the Northeast Atlantic, north of the North Sea. There was also a slight increase of probabilities of high waves derived from conventional extreme value statistics in northwest approaches to the North Sea. Similar trends of the extreme waves were found in a scenario of future wave climate at a time of doubled C0{sub 2} concentration in the atmosphere. (orig.) 28 refs.

  17. Beneficial Effect of Short Pretransplant Period of Hypothermic Pulsatile Perfusion of the Warm-Ischemic Kidney after Cold Storage: Experimental Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Lázaro

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Warm ischemia (WI produces a significant deleterious effect in potential kidney grafts. Hypothermic machine perfusion (HMP seems to improve immediate graft function after transplant. Our aim was to analyze the effect of short pretransplant periods of pulsatile HMP on histology and renal injury in warm-ischemic kidneys. Twelve minipigs were used. WI was achieved in the right kidney by applying a vascular clamp for 45 min. After nephrectomy, autotransplant was performed following one of two strategies: cold storage of the kidneys or cold storage combined with perfusion in pulsatile HMP. The graft was removed early to study renal morphology, inflammation (fibrosis, and apoptosis. Proinflammatory activity and fibrosis were less pronounced after cold storage of the kidneys with HMP than after cold storage only. The use of HMP also decreased apoptosis compared with cold storage only. The detrimental effects on cells of an initial and prolonged period of WI seem to improve with a preservation protocol that includes a short period of pulsatile HMP after cold storage and immediately before the transplant, in comparison with cold storage only.

  18. Beneficial Effect of Short Pretransplant Period of Hypothermic Pulsatile Perfusion of the Warm-Ischemic Kidney after Cold Storage: Experimental Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro, Alberto; Humanes, Blanca; Jado, Juan Carlos; Mojena, Marina; González-Nicolás, María Ángeles; Del Cañizo, Juan Francisco; Tejedor, Alberto; Lledó-García, Enrique

    2016-01-01

    Warm ischemia (WI) produces a significant deleterious effect in potential kidney grafts. Hypothermic machine perfusion (HMP) seems to improve immediate graft function after transplant. Our aim was to analyze the effect of short pretransplant periods of pulsatile HMP on histology and renal injury in warm-ischemic kidneys. Twelve minipigs were used. WI was achieved in the right kidney by applying a vascular clamp for 45 min. After nephrectomy, autotransplant was performed following one of two strategies: cold storage of the kidneys or cold storage combined with perfusion in pulsatile HMP. The graft was removed early to study renal morphology, inflammation (fibrosis), and apoptosis. Proinflammatory activity and fibrosis were less pronounced after cold storage of the kidneys with HMP than after cold storage only. The use of HMP also decreased apoptosis compared with cold storage only. The detrimental effects on cells of an initial and prolonged period of WI seem to improve with a preservation protocol that includes a short period of pulsatile HMP after cold storage and immediately before the transplant, in comparison with cold storage only.

  19. Statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warming as observed over the observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E) during the 1981-2001 period

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Sivakumar, V

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available of stratospheric sudden warming as observed over the Observatoire de Haute Provence (44°N, 6°E) during the period 1981-2001 D.V. Acharyulu, V. Sivakumar*, H. Bencherif, B. Morel, Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), CNRS–UMR 8105, Université de... La Réunion, FRANCE. * Also at National Laser Centre, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, SOUTH AFRICA. A. Hauchecorne Service d’Aéronomie, CNRS, Paris, FRANCE. D.N. Rao National Atmosphere Research Laboratory...

  20. An Anatomy of the 1960s Atlantic Cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodson, Dan; Robson, Jon; Sutton, Rowan

    2014-05-01

    North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability during the 20th Century. In particular, the North Atlantic SSTs exhibited a rapid warming between 1920 and 1940 followed by a rapid cooling between 1960 and 1980. SSTs outside the North Atlantic display a much smaller level of decadal variability over the 20th Century. This pattern of North Atlantic warming and cooling has been linked to subsequent changes in rainfall over the Sahel and Nordeste Brazil, Summertime North American Climate and Atlantic Hurricane Genesis. Several hypotheses for the rapid 1960s Atlantic cooling have been proposed, including a reduction in northward ocean heat transport due to a reduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the significant rise in anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions during the latter half of the 20th century. Here we examine the observed 1960s Atlantic cooling in more detail. We describe the evolution of the rapid cooling by constructing a detailed multivariate anatomy of the cooling period in order to illuminate the possible explanations and mechanisms involved. We show that the observed 1960s cooling began around 1964-68 in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) seas, later spreading to the Atlantic Sub Polar Gyre and much of the subtropical Atlantic. This initial cooling of the Sub Polar Gyre is associated with a marked reduction in salinity (the Great Salinity Anomaly). The cooling peaked between 1972-76, extending into the Tropical North Atlantic. This period also saw the development of a significant Winter North-South Dipole Mean Sea Level Pressure dipole pattern reminiscent of a positive NAO (High over the Azores, Low over Iceland). The cooling then retreated back to higher latitudes during 1976:80. Our analysis demonstrates that the cooling of the North Atlantic during the 1960s cannot be understood as a simple thermodynamic response to aerosol induced reductions in shortwave radiation. Dynamical changes

  1. Inter-annual variability of aerosol optical depth over the tropical Atlantic Ocean based on MODIS-Aqua observations over the period 2002-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkikas, Antonis; Hatzianastassiou, Nikolaos

    2013-04-01

    The tropical Atlantic Ocean is affected by dust and biomass burning aerosol loads transported from the western parts of the Saharan desert and the sub-Sahel regions, respectively. The spatial and temporal patterns of this transport are determined by the aerosol emission rates, their deposition (wet and dry), by the latitudinal shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the prevailing wind fields. More specifically, in summer, Saharan dust aerosols are transported towards the Atlantic Ocean, even reaching the Gulf of Mexico, while in winter the Atlantic Ocean transport takes place in more southern latitudes, near the equator, sometimes reaching the northern parts of South America. In the later case, dust is mixed with biomass burning aerosols originating from agricultural activities in the sub-Sahel, associated with prevailing north-easterly airflow (Harmattan winds). Satellite observations are the appropriate tool for describing this African aerosol export, which is important to atmospheric, oceanic and climate processes, offering the advantage of complete spatial coverage. In the present study, we use satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth at 550nm (AOD550nm), on a daily and monthly basis, derived from MODIS-Aqua platform, at 1ox1o spatial resolution (Level 3), for the period 2002-2012. The primary objective is to determine the pixel-level and regional mean anomalies of AOD550nm over the entire study period. The regime of the anomalies of African export is interpreted in relation to the aerosol source areas, precipitation, wind patterns and temporal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). In order to ensure availability of AOD over the Sahara desert, MODIS-Aqua Deep Blue products are also used. As for precipitation, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data at 2.5ox2.5o are used. The wind fields are taken from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Apart from the regime of African aerosol export

  2. Marine ecosystem response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Edwards

    Full Text Available Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural low-frequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (∼60 years is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world's longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries.

  3. THREE-DIMENSIONAL ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF WARM AND HOT JUPITERS: EFFECTS OF ORBITAL DISTANCE, ROTATION PERIOD, AND NONSYNCHRONOUS ROTATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Showman, Adam P. [Department of Planetary Sciences and Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, University of Arizona, 1629 University Blvd., Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Lewis, Nikole K. [Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J., E-mail: showman@lpl.arizona.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States)

    2015-03-10

    Efforts to characterize extrasolar giant planet (EGP) atmospheres have so far emphasized planets within 0.05 AU of their stars. Despite this focus, known EGPs populate a continuum of orbital separations from canonical hot Jupiter values (0.03–0.05 AU) out to 1 AU and beyond. Unlike typical hot Jupiters, these more distant EGPs will not generally be synchronously rotating. In anticipation of observations of this population, we here present three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models exploring the dynamics that emerge over a broad range of rotation rates and incident stellar fluxes appropriate for warm and hot Jupiters. We find that the circulation resides in one of two basic regimes. On typical hot Jupiters, the strong day–night heating contrast leads to a broad, fast superrotating (eastward) equatorial jet and large day–night temperature differences. At faster rotation rates and lower incident fluxes, however, the day–night heating gradient becomes less important, and baroclinic instabilities emerge as a dominant player, leading to eastward jets in the midlatitudes, minimal temperature variations in longitude, and, often, weak winds at the equator. Our most rapidly rotating and least irradiated models exhibit similarities to Jupiter and Saturn, illuminating the dynamical continuum between hot Jupiters and the weakly irradiated giant planets of our own solar system. We present infrared (IR) light curves and spectra of these models, which depend significantly on incident flux and rotation rate. This provides a way to identify the regime transition in future observations. In some cases, IR light curves can provide constraints on the rotation rate of nonsynchronously rotating planets.

  4. AMO-like variations of holocene sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Feng

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Instrumental records of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST show a significant 60–80 year cycle, referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. During AMO warm (cold phases, SST over the entire North Atlantic Ocean is dominated by basin-wide positive (negative anomalies. We analyzed SST variations in the North Atlantic Ocean for the last 10 ka. The long-term and centennial variations of Holocene SST in the North Atlantic demonstrate a basin-wide mode that clearly resembles the AMO signal recorded during the recent instrumental period. The long-term changes of Holocene SST were controlled by the solar insolation related to the orbital variations, and the centennial variations were closely coupled with the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. The spatial extent in the Atlantic realm of temperature anomalies around two specific time intervals, 8.2 ka and during the medieval warm period, also resemble the observed temperature anomalies associated with the AMO. These results demonstrate that the modern AMO, and centennial and longer time scale SST variations during the Holocene share a similar spatial extent in the North Atlantic, and presumably as well physical processes associated with their existence and their far-field teleconnection effects.

  5. Two Distinct Roles of Atlantic SSTs in ENSO Variability: North Tropical Atlantic SST and Atlantic Nino

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong; Park, Jong-Yeon

    2013-01-01

    Two distinct roles of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST and the Atlantic Nino, on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are investigated using the observational data from 1980 to 2010 and coupled model experiments. It appears that the NTA SST and the Atlantic Nino can be used as two independent predictors for predicting the development of ENSO events in the following season. Furthermore, they are likely to be linked to different types of El Nino events. Specifically, the NTA SST cooling during February, March, and April contributes to the central Pacific warming at the subsequent winter season, while the negative Atlantic Nino event during June, July, and August contributes to enhancing the eastern Pacific warming. The coupled model experiments support these results. With the aid of a lagged inverse relationship, the statistical forecast using two Atlantic indices can successfully predict various ENSO indices.

  6. Ecosystem nitrogen fixation throughout the snow-free period in subarctic tundra: effects of willow and birch litter addition and warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousk, Kathrin; Michelsen, Anders

    2017-04-01

    Nitrogen (N) fixation in moss-associated cyanobacteria is one of the main sources of available N for N-limited ecosystems such as subarctic tundra. Yet, N2 fixation in mosses is strongly influenced by soil moisture and temperature. Thus, temporal scaling up of low-frequency in situ measurements to several weeks, months or even the entire growing season without taking into account changes in abiotic conditions cannot capture the variation in moss-associated N2 fixation. We therefore aimed to estimate moss-associated N2 fixation throughout the snow-free period in subarctic tundra in field experiments simulating climate change: willow (Salix myrsinifolia) and birch (Betula pubescens spp. tortuosa) litter addition, and warming. To achieve this, we established relationships between measured in situ N2 fixation rates and soil moisture and soil temperature and used high-resolution measurements of soil moisture and soil temperature (hourly from May to October) to model N2 fixation. The modelled N2 fixation rates were highest in the warmed (2.8 ± 0.3 kg N ha(-1) ) and birch litter addition plots (2.8 ± 0.2 kg N ha(-1) ), and lowest in the plots receiving willow litter (1.6 ± 0.2 kg N ha(-1) ). The control plots had intermediate rates (2.2 ± 0.2 kg N ha(-1) ). Further, N2 fixation was highest during the summer in the warmed plots, but was lowest in the litter addition plots during the same period. The temperature and moisture dependence of N2 fixation was different between the climate change treatments, indicating a shift in the N2 fixer community. Our findings, using a combined empirical and modelling approach, suggest that a longer snow-free period and increased temperatures in a future climate will likely lead to higher N2 fixation rates in mosses. Yet, the consequences of increased litter fall on moss-associated N2 fixation due to shrub expansion in the Arctic will depend on the shrub species' litter traits.

  7. Trade-offs between global warming and day length on the start of the carbon uptake period in seasonally cold ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Cremonese, Edoardo; Hammerle, Albin; Hörtnagl, Lukas; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; Cella, Umberto Morra

    2013-12-01

    is well established that warming leads to longer growing seasons in seasonally cold ecosystems. Whether this goes along with an increase in the net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake is much more controversial. We studied the effects of warming on the start of the carbon uptake period (CUP) of three mountain grasslands situated along an elevational gradient in the Alps. To this end, we used a simple empirical model of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange, calibrated, and forced with multiyear empirical data from each site. We show that reductions in the quantity and duration of daylight associated with earlier snowmelts were responsible for diminishing returns, in terms of carbon gain, from longer growing seasons caused by reductions in daytime photosynthetic uptake and increases in nighttime losses of CO2. This effect was less pronounced at high, compared to low, elevations, where the start of the CUP occurred closer to the summer solstice when changes in day length and incident radiation are minimal.

  8. NUMERICAL STUDY OF INFLUENCE OF THE SSTA IN WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON RAINFALL IN THE FIRST FLOOD PERIOD IN SOUTH CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Yi-min; QIAN Yong-fu

    2005-01-01

    A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is analyzed. According to the negative correlation between rainfall in the first flood period in South China (FFSC) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in a key region in western Pacific warm pool (West Region), two sensitive experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the latter on the former and the possible physical mechanism is discussed. It is found that in cold water (warm water) years, the rainfall in South China (SC) is far more (less) than normal, while the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively less (more). The best correlative area of precipitation is located in Guangdong Province. It matches the diagnostic result well. The effect of SSTA on precipitation of FFSC is realized through the abnormality of atmospheric circulation and tested by a P-σnine-layer regional climate model. Moreover, the simulated result of the P-σmodel is basically coincident with that of the CCM3.

  9. New sedimentary constraints for changes in Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water linked to North Atlantic climate variability during the last interglacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvali, N.; Kleiven, H. F.; Ninnemann, U. S.

    2012-12-01

    Model studies suggest that variations in Nordic Seas deep water formation, and associated meridional heat transports, exert a strong influence on North Atlantic climate and played a formative role in the evolution and demise of the previous interglacial period. Yet, paleoceanographic reconstructions, which rely on geochemical proxies, have yet to definitively resolved the precise relationship between past changes in meridional overturning and North Atlantic climate. One possible reason for this is that geochemical proxies are unable to differentiate between changes in the preformed chemistry and variations in the ventilation rate of deep waters. Here we present high-resolution records of a new sediment proxy for deep-ocean flow and a record of North Atlantic climate from a sediment core, ODP Site 983 (60°24'N, 23°38'W) at 1983 m water depth south of Iceland. Site 983 is located near the head of the Gardar Drift, which extends to the south-south-west, following the path of deep overflows (Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, ISOW) from the Iceland-Scotland Ridge. In this study we use sortable silt (SS) grain-size data to reconstruct past changes in the speed of deep-water overflow from the Nordic Seas, stable oxygen and carbon isotope measurements together with planktonic foraminiferal assemblage and ice-rafted debris counts in order to reconstruct North Atlantic climate and deep-water circulation across the last interglacial period; Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e. We further compare our records with recently published high-resolution stable isotope records from the IODP Site U1304 (53° 3.401'N, 33° 31.781'W, 3082 m), located on the southern edge of the Gardar Drift, elucidating changes in the vertical and southward extent of ISOW. Our results suggest that at least three different modes of deep water ventilation existed between MIS 6 to 5d. ISOW vigor was decreased, and mid-depth (1983-m) to deep (3082-m) δ13C gradients developed in the North Atlantic during MIS 6

  10. Global linkages originating from decadal oceanic variability in the subpolar North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chafik, L.; Häkkinen, S.; England, M. H.; Carton, J. A.; Nigam, S.; Ruiz-Barradas, A.; Hannachi, A.; Miller, L.

    2016-10-01

    The anomalous decadal warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), and the northward spreading of this warm water, has been linked to rapid Arctic sea ice loss and more frequent cold European winters. Recently, variations in this heat transport have also been reported to covary with global warming slowdown/acceleration periods via a Pacific climate response. We here examine the role of SPNA temperature variability in this Atlantic-Pacific climate connectivity. We find that the evolution of ocean heat content anomalies from the subtropics to the subpolar region, likely due to ocean circulation changes, coincides with a basin-wide Atlantic warming/cooling. This induces an Atlantic-Pacific sea surface temperature seesaw, which in turn, strengthens/weakens the Walker circulation and amplifies the Pacific decadal variability that triggers pronounced global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. We conclude that the decadal oceanic variability in the SPNA is an essential component of the tropical interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

  11. EPIC 212803289: a subgiant hosting a transiting warm Jupiter in an eccentric orbit and a long-period companion

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, A M S; Barragán, O; Bowler, B; Csizmadia, Sz; Endl, M; Fridlund, M C V; Grziwa, S; Guenther, E; Hatzes, A P; Nowak, G; Albrecht, S; Alonso, R; Cabrera, J; Cochran, W D; Deeg, H J; Eigmüller, Ph; Erikson, A; Hidalgo, D; Hirano, T; Johnson, M C; Korth, J; Mann, A; Narita, N; Nespral, D; Palle, E; Pätzold, M; Prieto-Arranz, J; Rauer, H; Ribas, I; Tingley, B; Wolthoff, V

    2016-01-01

    We report the discovery from K2 of a transiting planet in an 18.25-d, eccentric (0.19$\\pm$ 0.04) orbit around EPIC 212803289, an 11th magnitude subgiant in Virgo. We confirm the planetary nature of the companion with radial velocities, and determine that the star is a metal-rich ([Fe/H] = 0.20$\\pm$0.05) subgiant, with mass $1.60^{+0.14}_{-0.10}~M_\\odot$ and radius $3.1\\pm 0.1~R_\\odot$. The planet has a mass of $0.97\\pm0.09~M_{\\rm Jup}$ and a radius $1.29\\pm0.05~R_{\\rm Jup}$. A measured systemic radial acceleration of $-2.12\\pm0.04~{\\rm m s^{-1} d^{-1}}$ offers compelling evidence for the existence of a third body in the system, perhaps a brown dwarf orbiting with a period of several hundred days.

  12. Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren

    2015-10-06

    A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

  13. Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

    2014-08-22

    A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years.

  14. Episodic drought during mid-Holocene warm period revealed by speleothem carbon and oxygen isotopes and UV fluorescence in southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Cheng, H.; Driese, S. G.

    2012-12-01

    The geographical characteristics of the expression (onset, duration, frequency, and amplitude) and environmental impacts of the Holocene megadrought is poorly understood in the southeastern (SE) US, particularly in the inland, southern Appalachian region. Evidence indicates that drought conditions prevailed in the southwestern and mid-continent regions during the mid-Holocene, but the US eastern seaboard may have had increased precipitation. Here, we present a 15 ka speleothem isotope record from Raccoon Mountain Cave (RMC) in the southern Appalachians, showing episodic droughts during the mid-Holocene warm period. The speleothem (RM0710-2), collected from a constant, slow drip-rate site at the lower end of the cave passage, was constrained geochronologically by 11 U/Th dates. To determine the suitability of fossil speleothems as paleoclimate records in RMC, multiple cave materials were examined, including stalagmite, stalactite, cave water (pond and dripping water), limestone, cave soil, flowstone, cave surface soil, pond deposit, and soda straw. Stable isotope analysis of modern speleothems and cave drip water spatially collected from RMC revealed that the fossil speleothem δ13C and δ18O values record moisture conditions, with less negative isotope values corresponding to drier or higher evapo-transpiration conditions.Three major drought periods were identified: 7400~6890 yr BP, 5950~5340 yr BP, and 4870~4050 yr BP. A weak drought interval occurred during a major wet period (6890~5950 yr BP), between 6640~6280 yr BP. These drought intervals were bounded by three prominent wet periods centered at 6710 yr BP, 5970 yr BP, and 5210 yr BP. A profound, long-term wet period (~13,000~7,520 yr BP) started at the beginning of the Younger Dryas event that was characterized as a hiatus owing to speleothem submergence during high groundwater level. The major wet period between 6890 yr BP and 5950 yr BP characterized by more negative δ13C values covarying with more negative

  15. Bathymetric controls on Pliocene North Atlantic and Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, M.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hill, D.J.; Jones, S.M.

    2011-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma) is the most recent interval in Earth's history in which global temperatures reached and remained at levels similar to those projected for the near future. The distribution of global warmth, however, was different than today in that the high latitudes warmed more than the tropics. Multiple temperature proxies indicate significant sea surface warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans during the MPWP, but predictions from a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (HadCM3) have so far been unable to fully predict the large scale of sea surface warming in the high latitudes. If climate proxies accurately represent Pliocene conditions, and if no weakness exists in the physics of the model, then model boundary conditions may be in error. Here we alter a single boundary condition (bathymetry) to examine if Pliocene high latitude warming was aided by an increase in poleward heat transport due to changes in the subsidence of North Atlantic Ocean ridges. We find an increase in both Arctic sea surface temperature and deepwater production in model experiments that incorporate a deepened Greenland-Scotland Ridge. These results offer both a mechanism for the warming in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans indicated by numerous proxies and an explanation for the apparent disparity between proxy data and model simulations of Pliocene northern North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean conditions. Determining the causes of Pliocene warmth remains critical to fully understanding comparisons of the Pliocene warm period to possible future climate change scenarios. ?? 2011.

  16. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

    2017-01-01

    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  17. Variability in warm-season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns over subtropical South America: relationships between the South Atlantic convergence zone and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattingly, Kyle S.; Mote, Thomas L.

    2016-03-01

    Warm-season precipitation variability over subtropical South America is characterized by an inverse relationship between the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) and precipitation over the central and western La Plata basin of southeastern South America. This study extends the analysis of this "South American Seesaw" precipitation dipole to relationships between the SACZ and large, long-lived mesoscale convective systems (LLCSs) over the La Plata basin. By classifying SACZ events into distinct continental and oceanic categories and building a logistic regression model that relates LLCS activity across the region to continental and oceanic SACZ precipitation, a detailed account of spatial variability in the out-of-phase coupling between the SACZ and large-scale organized convection over the La Plata basin is provided. Enhanced precipitation in the continental SACZ is found to result in increased LLCS activity over northern, northeastern, and western sections of the La Plata basin, in association with poleward atmospheric moisture flux from the Amazon basin toward these regions, and a decrease in the probability of LLCS occurrence over the southeastern La Plata basin. Increased oceanic SACZ precipitation, however, was strongly related to reduced atmospheric moisture and decreased probability of LLCS occurrence over nearly the entire La Plata basin. These results suggest that continental SACZ activity and large-scale organized convection over the northern and eastern sections of the La Plata basin are closely tied to atmospheric moisture transport from the Amazon basin, while the warm coastal Brazil Current may also play an important role as an evaporative moisture source for LLCSs over the central and western La Plata basin.

  18. Dendroclimatic transfer functions revisited: Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period summer temperatures reconstructed using artificial neural networks and linear algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helama, S.; Holopainen, J.; Eronen, M. [Department of Geology, University of Helsinki, (Finland); Makarenko, N.G. [Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation). Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory; Karimova, L.M.; Kruglun, O.A. [Institute of Mathematics, Almaty (Kazakhstan); Timonen, M. [Finnish Forest Research Institute, Rovaniemi Research Unit (Finland); Merilaeinen, J. [SAIMA Unit of the Savonlinna Department of Teacher Education, University of Joensuu (Finland)

    2009-07-01

    Tree-rings tell of past climates. To do so, tree-ring chronologies comprising numerous climate-sensitive living-tree and subfossil time-series need to be 'transferred' into palaeoclimate estimates using transfer functions. The purpose of this study is to compare different types of transfer functions, especially linear and nonlinear algorithms. Accordingly, multiple linear regression (MLR), linear scaling (LSC) and artificial neural networks (ANN, nonlinear algorithm) were compared. Transfer functions were built using a regional tree-ring chronology and instrumental temperature observations from Lapland (northern Finland and Sweden). In addition, conventional MLR was compared with a hybrid model whereby climate was reconstructed separately for short- and long-period timescales prior to combining the bands of timescales into a single hybrid model. The fidelity of the different reconstructions was validated against instrumental climate data. The reconstructions by MLR and ANN showed reliable reconstruction capabilities over the instrumental period (AD 1802-1998). LCS failed to reach reasonable verification statistics and did not qualify as a reliable reconstruction: this was due mainly to exaggeration of the low-frequency climatic variance. Over this instrumental period, the reconstructed low-frequency amplitudes of climate variability were rather similar by MLR and ANN. Notably greater differences between the models were found over the actual reconstruction period (AD 802-1801). A marked temperature decline, as reconstructed by MLR, from the Medieval Warm Period (AD 931-1180) to the Little Ice Age (AD 1601-1850), was evident in all the models. This decline was approx. 0.5 C as reconstructed by MLR. Different ANN based palaeotemperatures showed simultaneous cooling of 0.2 to 0.5 C, depending on algorithm. The hybrid MLR did not seem to provide further benefit above conventional MLR in our sample. The robustness of the conventional MLR over the calibration

  19. A comparison of the climates of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and Current Warm Period reconstructed using coral records from the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Wenfeng; Liu, Xi; Chen, Xuefei; Wei, Gangjian; Zeng, Ti; Xie, Luhua; Zhao, Jian-xin

    2017-01-01

    For the global oceans, the characteristics of high-resolution climate changes during the last millennium remain uncertain because of the limited availability of proxy data. This study reconstructs climate conditions using annually resolved coral records from the South China Sea (SCS) to provide new insights into climate change over the last millennium. The results indicate that the climate of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 900-1300) was similar to that of the Current Warm Period (CWP, AD 1850-present), which contradicts previous studies. The similar warmth levels for the MCA and CWP have also been recorded in the Makassar Strait of Indonesia, which suggests that the MCA was not warmer than the CWP in the western Pacific and that this may not have been a globally uniform change. Hydrological conditions were drier/saltier during the MCA and similar to those of the CWP. The drier/saltier MCA and CWP in the western Pacific may be associated with the reduced precipitation caused by variations in the Pacific Walker Circulation. As for the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1550-1850), the results from this study, together with previous data from the Makassar Strait, indicate a cold and wet period compared with the CWP and the MCA in the western Pacific. The cold LIA period agrees with the timing of the Maunder sunspot minimum and is therefore associated with low solar activity. The fresher/wetter LIA in the western Pacific may have been caused by the synchronized retreat of both the East Asian Summer Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon.

  20. Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

    2017-02-01

    The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

  1. Aerosol light absorption in the North Atlantic: trends and seasonal characteristics during the period 1989 to 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Junker

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol light attenuation on quartz fibre filters has been measured since February 1989 at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research station near Carna, Co. Galway, Ireland, using an Aethalometer. The frequency of occurrence of the hourly averaged aerosol absorption data is found to be bimodally distributed. The two modes result from clean marine air and anthropogenically polluted continental air both being advected to the station dependent on the prevailing wind direction. The hourly averages of the marine portion of the aerosol light absorption are found to follow closely a lognormal distribution with a geometric mean of 0.310 Mm-1. The hourly averages of continental sector aerosol absorption are neither normally nor lognormally distributed and have an arithmetic mean of 6.36 Mm-1, indicating the presence of anthropogenic sources for BC east of the Mace Head station. The time series of the monthly averaged attenuation coefficient σatt of both marine and continental sector aerosol shows an increase from 1989 to 1997 and a levelling off thereafter. The monthly maximum of marine sector σatt is found in May. Trend and seasonal characteristics of the clean marine aerosol attenuation coefficients observed at Mace Head appear to be driven by meteorological factors, as indicated by rainfall data and by trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO indices. The observed increasing trends of the continental sector σatt from 1989 up to 1997 are possibly related to changes in BC emissions over Ireland, calculated from UNSTAT (2002 fuel consumption data.

  2. Did the naval wars in the North Atlantic and adjacent North and Baltic Sea during WWI and WWII played a significant role in the two climatic shifts of the 20th Century, the Arctic warming (1919 to 1939) and the global cooling (1940 to mid 1970)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernaerts, Arnd

    2010-05-01

    A better understanding of the perfect time correlation between the two most devastating naval wars during the last century, and the most prominent climatic changes in the Northern Hemisphere, the first at the end of WWI, and the second immediately after WWII commencement, could highlight the role of the ocean and adjacent seas in climate change matters, and of anthropogenic activities in the marine environment. The study provides an overview of decisive links between naval activities and a change of air temperatures, showing that the Arctic warming (1919 to 1939) was based on a different mechanism as the cooling period (1940 to mid 1970), which needs to be subdivided in two distinct periods, and three main regions. From autumn 1939 to winter 1941/42 naval war was primarily fought in the North- and Baltic Sea and the most eastern part of the Northern North Atlantic. Only after the U.S.A. became a war party in December 1941, the naval war took place everywhere in the North Atlantic for more than two years, and with increasing intensity in the Western North Pacific from 1942 to August 1945. Particular attention is given to the role of the North and Baltic Sea concerning the three extreme cold winters in Europe 1939/40, 1940/41 and 1941/42 that marked the start of a three decade long global cooling, and had been the coldest for more than 100 years. The most affected locations lay close to those sea areas with the highest naval activities, e.g. the North Sea section from The Netherlands to Denmark, and in the Southern and Central Baltic Sea in winter 1939/40. Similar observations can be made for the two subsequent war winters. After the invasion of Norway in 1940 the Skagerrak region experienced a record cold winter. The next most severe winter conditions in 1941/42 can be attributed to the realm of the Eastern Baltic Sea where naval force had been active since Germany had attacked Russia in June 1941. A significant fact of the three extreme winters is their appearance

  3. A composite sea surface temperature record of the northern South China Sea for the past 2,500 years: A unique look into seasonality and seasonal climate changes during warm and cold periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, H.; Soon, W.

    2015-12-01

    High-resolution late Holocene climate records that can resolve seasonality are essential for confirming past climatic dynamics, understanding the late 20th century global warming and predicting future climate. Here a new composite record of the sea surface temperature, SST, variation in the northern South China Sea (SCS) during the late Holocene is constructed by combining seven seasonally-resolved coral and T. gigas Sr/Ca-based SST time-windows with the instrumental SST record from modern interval between 1990 and 2000. This composite multi-proxy marine record, together with the reconstructions from mainland China and tropical western Pacific, indicates that the late Holocene warm periods, the Roman Warm Period (RWP) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP), were prominently imprinted and documented in the climatic and environmental history of the East Asia-Western Pacific region. Meanwhile, substantial and significant SST seasonality variations during the late Holocene were observed in the composite record. The observed increase in seasonality (or amplitude of seasonal cycles) during the cold periods around our study area was probably caused by the different amplitudes between winter versus summer SST variations in northern SCS, with much larger SST variation during winters than during summers for the late Holocene. In addition, the distinctive warm, cold and neutral climatic episodes identified in our northern SCS composite SST record correspond well with other paleo reconstructions from mainland China and especially well with the Northern Hemisphere-wide composites by Moberg et al. (2005) and Ljungqvist (2010). The overall agreement however also calls for more information and insights on how seasonal temperatures and their ranges vary on multidecadal to bicentennial timescales.

  4. Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Height and Ocean Heat Content Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter; Worthen, Denise L.

    2013-01-01

    The evolution of nearly 20 years of altimetric sea surface height (SSH) is investigated to understand its association with decadal to multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic heat content. Altimetric SSH is dominated by an increase of about 14 cm in the Labrador and Irminger seas from 1993 to 2011, while the opposite has occurred over the Gulf Stream region over the same time period. During the altimeter period the observed 0-700 m ocean heat content (OHC) in the subpolar gyre mirrors the increased SSH by its dominantly positive trend. Over a longer period, 1955-2011, fluctuations in the subpolar OHC reflect Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and can be attributed to advection driven by the wind stress ''gyre mode'' bringing more subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. The extended subpolar warming evident in SSH and OHC during the altimeter period represents transition of the AMV from cold to warm phase. In addition to the dominant trend, the first empirical orthogonal function SSH time series shows an abrupt change 2009-2010 reaching a new minimum in 2010. The change coincides with the change in the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5N as observed by the RAPID (Rapid Climate Change) project, and with extreme behavior of the wind stress gyre mode and of atmospheric blocking. While the general relationship between northern warming and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) volume transport remains undetermined, the meridional heat and salt transport carried by AMOC's arteries are rich with decade-to-century timescale variability.

  5. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-03

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  6. Subdecadal to multidecadal cycles of Late Holocene North Atlantic climate variability preserved by estuarine fossil pigments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubeny, J. Bradford; King, John W.; Santos, Antelmo

    2006-07-01

    The climate system in the North Atlantic region is complex and influenced by outside forcings as well as internal modes of the system. Modeling and observational work have suggested that a better understanding of the connections between ocean- and atmosphere-driven variability could lead to predictive power for North American and European weather patterns. Here we present a new millennial-length proxy record of estuarine fossil pigments and use it to investigate cyclic components of North Atlantic climate through the effects on estuarine ecosystems. The time series exhibits significant cyclic components that can be related to two of the dominant internal modes of climate variability in the region: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The NAO signal is associated with internal atmospheric variability, while the AMO has been linked to previously modeled and observed changes in thermohaline circulation and meridional heatflux. In our record, the dominant periodicity of the AMO has shifted over time, in concert with Medieval Warm Period Little Ice Age Present Warm Period transitions. A relationship between an intermittent NAO cycle and the AMO signal suggests coupling of the ocean-atmosphere system at multidecadal time scales. Although the causal relationship is not resolved, predictive models of Northern Hemisphere interannual weather patterns and estuarine productivity may be improved by incorporating the results of this study.

  7. Global and regional cooling in a warming climate from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhaug, Iselin; Drange, Helge

    2015-04-01

    Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale (hiatus) periods without warming despite an indisputable long-term warming trend. A large range of factors have been proposed to explain these non-warming decades, like volcanic cooling, reduced solar energy input, low stratospheric water vapor content, elevated tropospheric aerosols, internal variability of the climate system, or a combination thereof. We have analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods, when the effect of volcanic eruptions and variations in the solar cycle are neglected, may last for up to 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP 4.5, respectively. Regionally, the likelihood of a decadal-scale hiatus periods decrease first in the tropical Atlantic, Indian Ocean and western Pacific with increasing global temperatures in the RCP scenarios. The North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean are the regions with largest variability relative to the regional warming signal. As a response to the global temperature increase, the radiative imbalance at top of the atmosphere increases and the global oceans warm. This holds for both the upper and the deep ocean in all scenarios. In the CMIP5 simulations, anomalous uptake and storage of ocean heat are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The tropical East Pacific is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. On sub-decadal time scales, ocean storage of heat is largest and comparable in magnitude in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, followed by the Atlantic Ocean. We find no relation

  8. Increasing insolation and greenhouse gas concentration trigger Bølling-Allerød warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obase, Takashi; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

    2017-04-01

    During the last deglaciation, a major global warming was punctuated by several abrupt climate changes, likely related to Atlantic Meridional Overturning Curculation (AMOC) (Clark et al. 2012). Transient deglaciation experiments from the Last Glacial Maximum have been conducted by applying time-dependent insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and glacial meltwater forcing (Liu et al. 2009). They have showed that reduction in glacial meltwater discharge rate into North Atlantic induces abrupt recovery of AMOC, warming of Greenland and cooling of Antarctica (bipolar response) during the period of Bølling-Allerød (BA, 14.6 ka). We conduct a transient simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to BA using an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) MIROC 4m (an IPCC-class Japanese community model). The model is initialized with the 21ka, and we change insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations and meltwater fluxes following the protocol of PMIP4 (Ivanovic et al. 2016). Glacial meltwater is derived from ice sheet reconstruction (ICE6g, Peltier et al. 2015). We assume the glacial meltwater due to ice sheet loss is uniformly applied to the area of 50-70N North Atlantic Ocean. We conduct additional experiments branched from 16 ka, where 50-80% of ICE6g meltwater fluxes are applied without reducing the meltwater fluxes before the BA. The model results show that abrupt resumption of AMOC and warming of Greenland occurred at around the period of BA even under hosing of 0.06 Sv. Transition from cold stadial mode to warm interstadial mode occurs in about 100 years, which is consistent with reconstructions (Buizert et al. 2014). The result implies that increasing summer insolation and greenhouse gas concentration trigger abrupt AMOC recovery and warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and large fluctuation of meltwater due to ice sheet melting may not be necessary.

  9. Warm Inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Grøn

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available I show here that there are some interesting differences between the predictions of warm and cold inflation models focusing in particular upon the scalar spectral index n s and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. The first thing to be noted is that the warm inflation models in general predict a vanishingly small value of r. Cold inflationary models with the potential V = M 4 ( ϕ / M P p and a number of e-folds N = 60 predict δ n s C ≡ 1 − n s ≈ ( p + 2 / 120 , where n s is the scalar spectral index, while the corresponding warm inflation models with constant value of the dissipation parameter Γ predict δ n s W = [ ( 20 + p / ( 4 + p ] / 120 . For example, for p = 2 this gives δ n s W = 1.1 δ n s C . The warm polynomial model with Γ = V seems to be in conflict with the Planck data. However, the warm natural inflation model can be adjusted to be in agreement with the Planck data. It has, however, more adjustable parameters in the expressions for the spectral parameters than the corresponding cold inflation model, and is hence a weaker model with less predictive force. However, it should be noted that the warm inflation models take into account physical processes such as dissipation of inflaton energy to radiation energy, which is neglected in the cold inflationary models.

  10. A Possible Feedback Mechanism Involving the Arctic Freshwater,the Arctic Sea Ice, and the North Atlantic Drift

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Odd Helge OTTER(A); Helge DRANGE

    2004-01-01

    Model studies point to enhanced warming and to increased freshwater fluxes to high northern latitudes in response to global warming. In order to address possible feedbacks in the ice-ocean system in response to such changes, the combined effect of increased freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean and Arctic warming--the latter manifested as a gradual melting of the Arctic sea ice--is examined using a 3-D isopycnic coordinate ocean general circulation model. A suite of three idealized experiments is carried out: one control integration, one integration with a doubling of the modern Arctic river runoff, and a third more extreme case, where the river runoff is five times the modern value. In the two freshwater cases, the sea ice thickness is reduced by 1.5-2 m in the central Arctic Ocean over a 50-year period. The modelled ocean response is qualitatively the same for both perturbation experiments: freshwater propagates into the Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, leading to an initial weakening of the North Atlantic Drift.Furthermore, changes in the geostrophic currents in the central Arctic and melting of the Arctic sea ice lead to an intensified Beaufort Gyre, which in turn increases the southward volume transport through the Canadian Archipelago. To compensate for this southward transport of mass, more warm and saline Atlantic water is carried northward with the North Atlantic Drift. It is found that the increased transport of salt into the northern North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas tends to counteract the impact of the increased freshwater originating from the Arctic, leading to a stabilization of the North Atlantic Drift.

  11. Synchronous climate changes in Antarctica and the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steig, E.J.; Brook, E.J.; White, J.W.C.; Sucher, C.M.; Bender, M.L.; Lehman, S.J.; Morse, D.L.; Waddington, E.D.; Clow, G.D.

    1998-01-01

    Central Greenland ice cores provide evidence of abrupt changes in climate over the past 100,000 years. Many of these changes have also been identified in sedimentary and geochemical signatures in deep-sea sediment cores from the North Atlantic, confirming the link between millennial-scale climate variability and ocean thermohaline circulation. It is shown here that two of the most prominent North Atlantic events - the rapid warming that makes the end of the last glacial period and the Bolling/Allerod-Younger Dryas oscillation - are also recorded in an ice core from Taylor Dome, in the western Ross Sea sector of Antarctica. This result contrasts with evidence from ice cores in other regions of Antarctica, which show an asynchronous response between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

  12. Internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability in the Kiel climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel S. [Leibniz-Inst. fuer Meereswissenschaften, Kiel (Germany)

    2009-08-15

    The internal and external North Atlantic Sector variability is investigated by means of a multimillennial control run and forced experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The internal variability is studied by analyzing the control run. The externally forced variability is investigated in a run with periodic millennial solar forcing and in greenhouse warming experiments with enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. The surface air temperature (SAT) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere simulated in the control run displays enhanced variability relative to the red background at decadal, centennial, and millennial timescales. Special emphasis is given to the variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). The MOC plays an important role in the generation of internal climate modes. Furthermore, the MOC provides a strong negative feedback on the Northern Hemisphere SAT in both the solar and greenhouse warming experiments, thereby moderating the direct effects of the external forcing in the North Atlantic. The implications of the results for decadal predictability are discussed. (orig.)

  13. Aerosol properties associated with air masses arriving into the North East Atlantic during the 2008 Mace Head EUCAARI intensive observing period: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Worsnop

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available As part of the EUCAARI Intensive Observing Period, a 4-week campaign to measure aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties, atmospheric structure, and cloud microphysics was conducted from mid-May to mid-June 2008 at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station, located at the interface of Western Europe and the NE Atlantic and centered on the west Irish coastline. During the campaign, continental air masses comprising both young and aged continental plumes were encountered, along with polar, Arctic and tropical air masses. Polluted-continental aerosol concentrations were of the order of 3000 cm−3, while background marine air aerosol concentrations were between 400–600 cm−3. The highest marine air concentrations occurred in polar air masses in which a 15 nm nucleation mode, with concentration of 1100 cm−3, was observed and attributed to open ocean particle formation. Black carbon concentrations in polluted air were between 300–400 ng m−3, and in clean marine air were less than 50 ng m−3. Continental air submicron chemical composition (excluding refractory sea salt was dominated by organic matter, closely followed by sulphate mass. Although the concentrations and size distribution spectral shape were almost identical for the young and aged continental cases, hygroscopic growth factors (GF and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN to total condensation nuclei (CN concentration ratios were significantly less in the younger pollution plume, indicating a more oxidized organic component to the aged continental plume. The difference in chemical composition and hygroscopic growth factor appear to result in a 40–50% impact on aerosol scattering coefficients and Aerosol Optical Depth, despite almost identical aerosol microphysical properties in both cases, with the higher values been recorded for the more aged case. For the CCN/CN ratio, the highest ratios were seen in the more age plume

  14. Aerosol properties associated with air masses arriving into the North East Atlantic during the 2008 Mace Head EUCAARI intensive observing period: an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dall'Osto

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available As part of the EUCAARI Intensive Observing Period, a 4-week campaign to measure aerosol physical, chemical and optical properties, atmospheric structure, and cloud microphysics was conducted from mid-May to mid-June, 2008 at the Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station, located at the interface of Western Europe and the N. E. Atlantic and centered on the west Irish coastline. During the campaign, continental air masses comprising both young and aged continental plumes were encountered, along with polar, Arctic and tropical air masses. Polluted-continental aerosol concentrations were of the order of 3000 cm−3, while background marine air aerosol concentrations were between 400–600 cm−3. The highest marine air concentrations occurred in polar air masses in which a 15 nm nucleation mode, with concentration of 1100 cm−3, was observed and attributed to open ocean particle formation. Continental air submicron chemical composition (excluding refractory sea salt was dominated by organic matter, closely followed by sulphate mass. Although the concentrations and size distribution spectral shape were almost identical for the young and aged continental cases, hygroscopic growth factors (GF and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN to total condensation nuclei (CN concentration ratios were significantly less in the younger pollution plume, indicating a more oxidized organic component to the aged continental plume. The difference in chemical composition and hygroscopic growth factor appear to result in a 40–50% impact on aerosol scattering coefficients and Aerosol Optical Depth, despite almost identical aerosol microphysical properties in both cases, with the higher values been recorded for the more aged case. For the CCN/CN ratio, the highest ratios were seen in the more age plume. In marine air, sulphate mass dominated the sub-micron component, followed by water soluble organic carbon, which, in turn, was dominated by

  15. Tropical Atlantic-Korea teleconnection pattern during boreal summer season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kimoto, Masahide; Mochizuki, Takashi

    2016-12-01

    The remote impact of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability on Korean summer precipitation is examined based on observational data analysis along with the idealized and hindcast model experiments. Observations show a significant correlation (i.e. 0.64) between Korean precipitation anomalies (averaged over 120-130°E, 35-40°N) and the tropical Atlantic SST index (averaged over 60°W-20°E, 30°S-30°N) during the June-July-August (JJA) season for the 1979-2010 period. Our observational analysis and partial-data assimilation experiments using the coupled general circulation model demonstrate that tropical Atlantic SST warming induces the equatorial low-level easterly over the western Pacific through a reorganization of the global Walker Circulation, causing a decreased precipitation over the off-equatorial western Pacific. As a Gill-type response to this diabatic forcing, an anomalous low-level anticyclonic circulation appears over the Philippine Sea, which transports wet air from the tropics to East Asia through low-level southerly, resulting an enhanced precipitation in the Korean peninsula. Multi-model hindcast experiments also show that predictive skills of Korean summer precipitation are improved by utilizing predictions of tropical Atlantic SST anomalies as a predictor for Korean precipitation anomalies.

  16. Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC. In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period.

    In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this

  17. Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    Errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals are discussed: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken into account for properly quantifying anomalous accelerations in tide gauge records such as in New York City; (2) uncertainties and multicollinearity among climate forcing functions prevent a proper evaluation of the solar contribution to the 20th century global surface temperature warming using overloaded linear regression models during the 1900-2000 period alone; (3) when periodic wavelet filters, which require that a record is pre-processed with a reflection methodology, are improperly applied to decompose non-stationary solar and climatic time series, Gibbs boundary artifacts emerge yielding misleading physical interpretations. By correcting these errors and using optimized regression models that reduce multico...

  18. Changes of reanalysis-derived Northern Hemisphere summer warm extreme indices during 1948-2006 and links with climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xingqin; Wang, Anyu; Fong, Soi-kun; Lin, Wenshi; Liu, Ji

    2008-08-01

    Using1948-2006 surface 2 m daily temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset, summer warm extreme indices, warm days (TG90P), warm-spell days (WSFI), warm day-times (TX90P) and warm nights (TN90P) are calculated for Gaussian grids, a complete Northern Hemisphere (NH) picture of changes of summer warm extremes is presented, and their links with El Niño/La Niña & Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined in this paper. The results on the NH summer seasonal basis are as follows. Warm days, warm-spell days, warm day-times and warm nights increase at rates of 2.18, 1.23, 2.31 and 2.00 days/decade respectively during 1948-2006. A broader area is exposed to frequent occurrence of warm extremes in the recent 30 years than in the last 30 years. The 59-year long-term upward trend is characterized by a positive trend reversion in the late 1970s, with a slight downward trend in the last 30 years and a rapid upward trend in the recent 30 years, representing the main form of interdecadal variance of NH warm extremes. Warm days, warm-spell days, warm day-times and warm nights increase at rates of 4.53, 3.36, 4.44 and 4.21 days/decade respectively during 1977-2006. During 1948-2006, the largest increasing rate is at central tropical Atlantic and the largest decreasing rate in Mongolia and north China. Significant (level of 0.05) upward trends cover about half of the NH during 1948-2006 and about a third of the NH during 1977-2006 with the very significant upward trends more focused, while very sparse regions have significant downward trends during these two periods. In the recent 30 years, although NH-land summer warms at a faster rate than NH-water, warm extremes on NH-water increase much faster than those on NH-land, the average warm extreme indices and their increasing trends on NH are most modulated by

  19. Advection of Atlantic Water to the Western and Northern Svalbard Shelves Through the Last 17.5 ka cal yr BP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slubowska, M. A.; Rasmussen, T. L.; Koc, N.; Kristensen, D. K.; Nilsen, F.; Solheim, A.

    2005-12-01

    We have studied the distribution of benthic foraminifera species together with planktonic and benthic foraminifera abundances, stable oxygen isotopes and lithology in two cores: JM02-440 from the western (77° 22' N, 12° 48' E, 240 m water depth) and NP94-51 from the northern (80° 21' N and 16 ° 17' E, 400 m water depth) shelf of Svalbard. The purpose of the study was to reconstruct the changes in flow and character of the relatively warm Atlantic Water through the last 17.5 ka cal yr BP. The results from these two sites were compared with previously published records from the eastern Nordic Seas in order to follow the history of the advection of Atlantic Water as it moved northwards along the Norwegian coast and into the Arctic Ocean. Our results indicate that synchronous oceanographic changes occurred at the western and northern Svalbard shelves. The benthic foraminifera and oxygen isotope records indicate almost continuous presence of the Atlantic Water at the shelf areas since the deglaciation. The Bolling-Allerod period stands out as the warmest period in our records with the highest bottom waters temperatures indicating strong inflow of Atlantic Water. However, the warm Atlantic Water was isolated below cold and probably sea ice covered surface waters in contrast to the surface waters along the Norwegian coast, which experienced enhanced temperatures. During the Younger Dryas a freshening of the bottom waters occurred and the Polar Front was located in a proximal position to both sites. The strong inflow of saline, but chilled Atlantic Water happened during the Early Holocene. A distinct cooling and freshening of the bottom water masses occurred during the Mid- and Late Holocene, and was accompanied by glacier re-advances leading to the present-day conditions. During the last millennium, the inflow of Atlantic Water appears to increase, but the conditions turned unstable. The development of the paleoceanographic conditions at the western and northern

  20. Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Ka-Kit; Zhou, Jiansong

    2013-02-05

    The observed global-warming rate has been nonuniform, and the cause of each episode of slowing in the expected warming rate is the subject of intense debate. To explain this, nonrecurrent events have commonly been invoked for each episode separately. After reviewing evidence in both the latest global data (HadCRUT4) and the longest instrumental record, Central England Temperature, a revised picture is emerging that gives a consistent attribution for each multidecadal episode of warming and cooling in recent history, and suggests that the anthropogenic global warming trends might have been overestimated by a factor of two in the second half of the 20th century. A recurrent multidecadal oscillation is found to extend to the preindustrial era in the 353-y Central England Temperature and is likely an internal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), possibly caused by the thermohaline circulation variability. The perspective of a long record helps in quantifying the contribution from internal variability, especially one with a period so long that it is often confused with secular trends in shorter records. Solar contribution is found to be minimal for the second half of the 20th century and less than 10% for the first half. The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07-0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates. Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40% of the observed recent 50-y warming trend.

  1. Advection of Atlantic Water to the western and northern Svalbard shelf since 17,500 cal yr BP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ślubowska-Woldengen, Marta; Rasmussen, Tine L.; Koç, Nalân; Klitgaard-Kristensen, Dorthe; Nilsen, Frank; Solheim, Anders

    2007-02-01

    The changes in flow and character of the warm Atlantic Water through the last 17,500 cal yr are reconstructed from the distribution of benthic foraminifera species, planktonic and benthic foraminifera abundances, stable oxygen isotopes and lithology in two cores from the western and northern shelf of Svalbard. The results show almost continuous presence of Atlantic Water at the shelf areas since >14,500 cal yr BP. The Bølling and Allerød intervals stand out as periods of highest bottom waters temperatures. The strong inflow of saline, but chilled Atlantic Water during the early Holocene was followed by cooling and freshening of the bottom waters during the mid- and late Holocene. The two records reveal synchronous oceanographic changes that are closely tied to changes in the flow of Atlantic Water recorded further south in the Nordic seas. The early Holocene warming was not just an effect of higher solar insolation, but was also due to increased heat flux from the stronger Atlantic Water inflow driven by wind force and/or thermohaline circulation.

  2. Atlantic effects on recent decadal trends in global monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamae, Youichi; Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Ueda, Hiroaki

    2017-01-01

    Natural climate variability contributes to recent decadal climate trends. Specifically the trends during the satellite era since 1979 include Atlantic and Indian Ocean warming and Pacific cooling associated with phase shifts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and enhanced global monsoon (GM) circulation and rainfall especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we evaluate effects of the oceanic changes on the global and regional monsoon trends by partial ocean temperature restoring experiments in a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Via trans-basin atmosphere-ocean teleconnections, the Atlantic warming drives a global pattern of sea surface temperature change that resembles observations, giving rise to the enhanced GM. The tropical Atlantic warming and the resultant Indian Ocean warming favor subtropical deep-tropospheric warming in both hemispheres, resulting in the enhanced monsoon circulations and precipitation over North America, South America and North Africa. The extratropical North Atlantic warming makes an additional contribution to the monsoon enhancement via Eurasian continent warming and resultant land-sea thermal gradient over Asia. The results of this study suggest that the Atlantic multidecadal variability can explain a substantial part of global climate variability including the recent decadal trends of GM.

  3. Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central

  4. Global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, John

    2005-06-01

    'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

  5. Climate reconstruction for the last two millennia in central Iberia: The role of East Atlantic (EA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their interplay over the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-López, G.; Hernández, A.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Toro, M.; Granados, I.; Sáez, A.; Masqué, P.; Pueyo, J. J.; Rubio-Inglés, M. J.; Giralt, S.

    2016-10-01

    A multi-proxy characterization of the uppermost sedimentary infill of an Iberian alpine lake (Cimera, 2140 m a.s.l.) was performed to establish the climatic and environmental conditions for the Iberian Central Range (ICR) over the last two millennia. This multi-proxy characterization was used to reconstruct the intense runoff events, lake productivity and soil erosion in the lake catchment and interpret these factors in terms of temperature and precipitation variability. The Roman Period (RP; 200 BCE - 500 CE) beginning was characterized by an alternation between cold and warm periods as indicated by short-lived oscillations of intense runoff conditions and soil erosion, although warm conditions dominated the end of the period and the Early Middle Age (EMA; 500-900 CE) onset in the ICR. A noticeable decrease in intense runoff events and a progressive decrease in soil erosion during the late EMA indicated a shift to colder temperatures. In terms of precipitation, both the RP and EMA climate periods displayed a transition from dry to wet conditions that led to a decrease in lake productivity. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1300 CE) was characterized by warm and dry conditions with frequent intense runoff episodes and increases in lake productivity and soil erosion, whereas the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1850 CE) showed the opposite characteristics. The Industrial Era (1850-2012 CE) presented an increase in lake productivity that likely demonstrates the influence of global warming. The spatio-temporal integration of the Cimera record with other Iberian reconstructions has been used to identify the main climate drivers over this region. During the RP and EMA, N-S and E-W humidity gradients were dominant, whereas during the MCA and LIA, these gradients were not evident. These differences could be ascribed to interactions between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) phases. During the RP, the general warm conditions and the E-W humidity

  6. The Tropical Western Hemisphere Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C.; Enfield, D. B.

    2002-12-01

    The paper describes and examines variability of the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) of water warmer than 28.5oC. The WHWP is the second-largest tropical warm pool on Earth. Unlike the Eastern Hemisphere warm pool in the western Pacific, which straddles the equator, the WHWP is entirely north of the equator. At various stages of development the WHWP extends over parts of the eastern North Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the western tropical North Atlantic. It has a large seasonal cycle and its interannual fluctuations of area and intensity are significant. Surface heat fluxes warm the WHWP through the boreal spring to an annual maximum of SST and WHWP area in the late summer/early fall, associated with eastern North Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activities and rainfall from northern South America to the southern tier of the United States. Observations suggest that a positive ocean-atmosphere feedback operating through longwave radiation and associated cloudiness seems to operate in the WHWP. During winter preceding large warm pool, there is an alteration of the Walker and Hadley circulation cells that serves as a "tropospheric bridge" for transferring Pacific ENSO effects to the Atlantic sector and inducing initial warming of warm pool. Associated with the warm SST anomalies is a decrease in sea level pressure anomalies and an anomalous increase in atmospheric convection and cloudiness. The increase in convective activity and cloudiness results in less net longwave radiation loss from the sea surface, which then reinforces SST anomalies.

  7. Warm summers during Younger Dryas cold reversal over Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Frederik; Muschitiello, Francesco; Heikkilä, Miaja; Väliranta, Minna; Tarasov, Lev; Brandefelt, Jenny; Johansson, Arne; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    The Younger Dryas cold reversal (GS-1) sticks out as a major stadial interrupting the mid to late deglaciation with a sharp temperature drop of several degrees around the North Atlantic with global teleconnections. The abrupt return to a very cold glacial-like ocean state introduces a strong temperature anomaly to the climate system contrasting the high solar radiation received by northern summers. Here we show that, in contrast to earlier coarse resolution climate simulations of the Younger Dryas, these competing factors result in rather warm summer conditions over Eurasia comparable to the preceding warm period of the late Allerød (GI-1a). Despite up to 10 K colder sea-surface-temperatures in summer, our high resolution simulation with the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1.0.5) suggests that the presence of large ice sheets over Scandinavia, Spitsbergen and the Kara Sea significantly modifies atmospheric flow in summer preventing cold westerly winds from the Atlantic to impact the continent. Instead, fluid dynamics around ice sheets deflect winds to the north or south along the coasts supported by divergent flow from ice domes, stratification and increased tendency to high pressure and atmospheric blocking. Consistent with our model simulation, we show that temperature reconstructions derived from an extended compilation of multi-proxy lake records (chironomids, aquatic pollen, macrofossils) suggest warm July conditions of 13-17° C for continental Europe with exception of coastal and high elevation sites. The analysis of simulated growing degree days, season length and first results from paleo lake modelling driven by climate model output suggests that severe winter to spring conditions significantly delay and shorten the vegetation season but do not produce cold summers as previously simulated.

  8. Periodic fluctuations in deep water formation due to sea ice

    CERN Document Server

    Saha, Raj

    2015-01-01

    During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies. Paleoclimate data shows that the fluctuations often occurred right after massive glacial meltwater releases in the North Atlantic and in bursts of three or four with progressively decreasing strengths. In this study a simple dynamical model of an overturning circulation and sea ice is developed with the goal of understanding the fundamental mechanisms that could have caused the DO events. Interaction between sea ice and the overturning circulation in the model produces self-sustained oscillations. Analysis and numerical experiments reveal that the insulating effect of sea ice causes the ocean to periodically vent out accumulated heat in the deep ocean into the atmosphere. Subjecting the model to idealized freshwater forcing mimicking Heinrich events causes modulation of the natural p...

  9. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

    KAUST Repository

    Saenger, Casey

    2009-06-21

    Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend1-6. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature6-8, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable7,8. owever, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1° C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25 years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  10. Surface-temperature trends and variability in the low-latitude North Atlantic since 1552

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saenger, Casey; Cohen, Anne L.; Oppo, Delia W.; Halley, Robert B.; Carilli, Jessica E.

    2009-07-01

    Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic Ocean recorded since about 1850 has been ascribed to a natural multidecadal oscillation superimposed on a background warming trend. It has been suggested that the multidecadal variability may be a persistent feature, raising the possibility that the associated climate impacts may be predictable. However, our understanding of the multidecadal ocean variability before the instrumental record is based on interpretations of high-latitude terrestrial proxy records. Here we present an absolutely dated and annually resolved record of sea surface temperature from the Bahamas, based on a 440-year time series of coral growth rates. The reconstruction indicates that temperatures were as warm as today from about 1552 to 1570, then cooled by about 1∘C from 1650 to 1730 before warming until the present. Our estimates of background variability suggest that much of the warming since 1900 was driven by anthropogenic forcing. Interdecadal variability with a period of 15-25years is superimposed on most of the record, but multidecadal variability becomes significant only after 1730. We conclude that the multidecadal variability in sea surface temperatures in the low-latitude western Atlantic Ocean may not be persistent, potentially making accurate decadal climate forecasts more difficult to achieve.

  11. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Macias

    Full Text Available During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  12. Understanding the causes of recent warming of mediterranean waters. How much could be attributed to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, Diego; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Stips, Adolf

    2013-01-01

    During the past two decades, Mediterranean waters have been warming at a rather high rate resulting in scientific and social concern. This warming trend is observed in satellite data, field data and model simulations, and affects both surface and deep waters throughout the Mediterranean basin. However, the warming rate is regionally different and seems to change with time, which has led to the question of what causes underlie the observed trends. Here, we analyze available satellite information on sea surface temperature (SST) from the last 25 years using spectral techniques and find that more than half of the warming tendency during this period is due to a non-linear, wave-like tendency. Using a state of the art hydrodynamic model, we perform a hindcast simulation and obtain the simulated SST evolution of the Mediterranean basin for the last 52 years. These SST results show a clear sinusoidal tendency that follows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during the simulation period. Our results reveal that 58% of recent warming in Mediterranean waters could be attributed to this AMO-like oscillation, being anthropogenic-induced climate change only responsible for 42% of total trend. The observed acceleration of water warming during the 1990s therefore appears to be caused by a superimposition of anthropogenic-induced warming with the positive phase of the AMO, while the recent slowdown of this tendency is likely due to a shift in the AMO phase. It has been proposed that this change in the AMO phase will mask the effect of global warming in the forthcoming decades, and our results indicate that the same could also be applicable to the Mediterranean Sea. Henceforth, natural multidecadal temperature oscillations should be taken into account to avoid underestimation of the anthropogenic-induced warming of the Mediterranean basin in the future.

  13. Global warming

    CERN Document Server

    Hulme, M

    1998-01-01

    Global warming-like deforestation, the ozone hole and the loss of species- has become one of the late 20the century icons of global environmental damage. The threat, is not the reality, of such a global climate change has motivated governments. businesses and environmental organisations, to take serious action ot try and achieve serious control of the future climate. This culminated last December in Kyoto in the agreement for legally-binding climate protocol. In this series of three lectures I will provide a perspective on the phenomenon of global warming that accepts the scientific basis for our concern, but one that also recognises the dynamic interaction between climate and society that has always exited The future will be no different. The challenge of global warning is not to pretend it is not happening (as with some pressure groups), nor to pretend it threatens global civilisation (as with other pressure groups), and it is not even a challenge to try and stop it from happening-we are too far down the ro...

  14. Seabird transfer of nutrients and trace elements from the north water polynya to land during the mid-holocene warm period, carey islands, northwest Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Outridge, Peter M.; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Bennike, Ole

    2016-01-01

    and N isotopic and trace element analyses of a peat core that represents ca. 2000 years of organic matter accumulation to examine the effect on trace elements and nutrients of a seabird colony that existed in northern Baffin Bay during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 8000-5000 yr BP). Although C and N......, in which guano markedly increased environmental Hg concentrations. It could be a consequence of Hg concentrations in Arctic marine food webs in the pre-industrial period that were an order of magnitude lower than those of today....

  15. Decline of the marine ecosystem caused by a reduction in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmittner, Andreas

    2005-03-31

    Reorganizations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation were associated with large and abrupt climatic changes in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial period. Projections with climate models suggest that similar reorganizations may also occur in response to anthropogenic global warming. Here I use ensemble simulations with a coupled climate-ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to investigate the possible consequences of such disturbances to the marine ecosystem. In the simulations, a disruption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation leads to a collapse of the North Atlantic plankton stocks to less than half of their initial biomass, owing to rapid shoaling of winter mixed layers and their associated separation from the deep ocean nutrient reservoir. Globally integrated export production declines by more than 20 per cent owing to reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich deep water and gradual depletion of upper ocean nutrient concentrations. These model results are consistent with the available high-resolution palaeorecord, and suggest that global ocean productivity is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

  16. What controls early or late onset of tropical North Atlantic hurricane season?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Heng; Li, Tim; Liu, Jia; Peng, Melinda

    2016-06-01

    The occurrence of first hurricane in early summer signifies the onset of an active Atlantic hurricane season. The interannual variation of this hurricane onset date is examined for the period 1979-2013. It is found that the onset date has a marked interannual variation. The standard deviation of the interannual variation of the onset day is 17.5 days, with the climatological mean onset happening on July 23. A diagnosis of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis potential index (GPI) indicates that the major difference between an early and a late onset group lies in the maximum potential intensity (MPI). A further diagnosis of the MPI shows that it is primarily controlled by the local SST anomaly (SSTA). Besides the SSTA, vertical shear and mid-tropospheric relative humidity anomalies also contribute significantly to the GPI difference between the early and late onset groups. It is found that the anomalous warm (cold) SST over the tropical Atlantic, while uncorrelated with the Niño3 index, persists from the preceding winter to concurrent summer in the early (late) onset group. The net surface heat flux anomaly always tends to damp the SSTA, which suggests that ocean dynamics may play a role in maintaining the SSTA in the tropical Atlantic. The SSTA pattern with a maximum center in northeastern tropical Atlantic appears responsible for generating the observed wind and moisture anomalies over the main TC development region. A further study is needed to understand the initiation mechanism of the SSTA in the Atlantic.

  17. Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Yan; ZHAO Xinyi; ZHOU Liping

    2008-01-01

    Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages, year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961--2004 using singular value de-composition (SVD) analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies (SSTA) in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole - like variation with the positive center located at southwest and nega-tive center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in AI variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of AI variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition, the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of SSTA and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration, which re-sult in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivated Eurasian cir-culation of EA pattern, further to influence the wet - dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to - atmosphere forcing.

  18. A model based investigation of the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, nitrogen deposition and land use change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the historical period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N.; Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Nemani, R.

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, using the fully coupled NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4), we investigate the relative importance of CO2-fertilization, climate warming, anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) for terrestrial carbon uptake during the historical period (1850-2005). In our simulations, between the beginning and end of this period, we find an increase in global net primary productivity (NPP) on land of about 4 PgCyr-1 (8.2 %) with a contribution of 2.3 PgCyr-1 from CO2-fertilization and 2.0 PgCyr-1 from nitrogen deposition. Climate warming also causes NPP to increase by 0.35 PgCyr-1 but LULCC causes a decline of 0.7 PgCyr-1. These results indicate that the recent increase in vegetation productivity is most likely driven by CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Further, we find that this configuration of CESM projects that the global terrestrial ecosystem has been a net source of carbon during 1850-2005 (release of 45.1 ± 2.4 PgC), largely driven by historical LULCC related CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. During the recent three decades (early 1970s to early 2000s), however, our model simulations project that the terrestrial ecosystem acts as a sink, taking up about 10 PgC mainly due to CO2 fertilization and nitrogen deposition. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with recent studies that indicate an increase in vegetation production and water use efficiency in the satellite era and that the terrestrial ecosystem has been a net sink for carbon in recent decades.

  19. K2-99: a subgiant hosting a transiting warm Jupiter in an eccentric orbit and a long-period companion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, A. M. S.; Gandolfi, D.; Barragán, O.; Bowler, B.; Csizmadia, Sz.; Endl, M.; Fridlund, M. C. V.; Grziwa, S.; Guenther, E.; Hatzes, A. P.; Nowak, G.; Albrecht, S.; Alonso, R.; Cabrera, J.; Cochran, W. D.; Deeg, H. J.; Cusano, F.; Eigmüller, Ph.; Erikson, A.; Hidalgo, D.; Hirano, T.; Johnson, M. C.; Korth, J.; Mann, A.; Narita, N.; Nespral, D.; Palle, E.; Pätzold, M.; Prieto-Arranz, J.; Rauer, H.; Ribas, I.; Tingley, B.; Wolthoff, V.

    2017-01-01

    We report the discovery from K2 of a transiting planet in an 18.25-d, eccentric (0.19 ± 0.04) orbit around K2-99, an 11th magnitude subgiant in Virgo. We confirm the planetary nature of the companion with radial velocities, and determine that the star is a metal-rich ([Fe/H] = 0.20 ± 0.05) subgiant, with mass 1.60^{+0.14}_{-0.10} M⊙ and radius 3.1 ± 0.1 R⊙. The planet has a mass of 0.97 ± 0.09 MJup and a radius 1.29 ± 0.05 RJup. A measured systemic radial acceleration of -2.12 ± 0.04 ms-1 d-1 offers compelling evidence for the existence of a third body in the system, perhaps a brown dwarf orbiting with a period of several hundred days.

  20. Re-evaluating high-latitude warming in the Pliocene Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Daniel; Smith, Yvonne; Dolan, Aisling

    2016-04-01

    The Pliocene warm period was generally been seen as stable warm climate with global temperatures of 2-3K above pre-industrial and significant polar amplification. Northern Hemisphere ice has been reconstructed to be restricted to the high altitude areas of Greenland and global reconstructions of sea surface temperatures show an especially strong warming in the Nordic Seas, most often attributed to increased ocean heat transport in the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we present climate model results that show that the strongest warming recorded in the Nordic Seas and Arctic is forced by changes in orbital forcing and palaeogeographic changes. Of particular importance is the presence of a sub-aerial landmass in the Barents Sea region, which has subsequently been eroded by Pleistocene glaciation. While climate models can produce strong warming signals in the Nordic Seas, a new iceberg modelling study showing that through much of the Pliocene the conditions in the Nordic Seas were suitable for the presence of significant quantities of icebergs. The locations of IRD records also raises the possibility of significant glaciations in places previously considered to be ice free in the Pliocene.

  1. Warm Breeze

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    Middle-aged female painter Wang Yingchun is a first-grade artist at the Research Instituteof Chinese Painting. With a solid foundation in: Chinese painting, oil painting andsculpture she began to experiment in the early 1980s with stone carving, murals, folkart, landscapes, flowers and birds, cubism, expressionism and abstractionism. Living ina time of social transformation, she felt pressed to create her own artistic style. Aftervisiting South America, she produced a batch of works which drew the essence of theBeast Group and used a new technique, without sketching the contours of flowers, sothat the paintings look wild, romantic and exuberant. This painting Warm Breeze displaysWang’s style: While extensively studying the paintings of various schools, she makes hertraditional Chinese ink paintings tinted with modern color.

  2. The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in Chesapeake Bay and the North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Hayo, K.; Thunell, R.C.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Willard, D.A.

    2010-01-01

    A new 2400-year paleoclimate reconstruction from Chesapeake Bay (CB) (eastern US) was compared to other paleoclimate records in the North Atlantic region to evaluate climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). Using Mg/Ca ratios from ostracodes and oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera as proxies for temperature and precipitation-driven estuarine hydrography, results show that warmest temperatures in CB reached 16-17. ??C between 600 and 950. CE (Common Era), centuries before the classic European Medieval Warm Period (950-1100. CE) and peak warming in the Nordic Seas (1000-1400. CE). A series of centennial warm/cool cycles began about 1000. CE with temperature minima of ~. 8 to 9. ??C about 1150, 1350, and 1650-1800. CE, and intervening warm periods (14-15. ??C) centered at 1200, 1400, 1500 and 1600. CE. Precipitation variability in the eastern US included multiple dry intervals from 600 to 1200. CE, which contrasts with wet medieval conditions in the Caribbean. The eastern US experienced a wet LIA between 1650 and 1800. CE when the Caribbean was relatively dry. Comparison of the CB record with other records shows that the MCA and LIA were characterized by regionally asynchronous warming and complex spatial patterns of precipitation, possibly related to ocean-atmosphere processes. ?? 2010.

  3. Splitting of Atlantic water transport towards the Arctic Ocean into the Fram Strait and Barents Sea Branches - mechanisms and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beszczynska-Möller, Agnieszka; Skagseth, Øystein; von Appen, Wilken-Jon; Walczowski, Waldemar; Lien, Vidar

    2016-04-01

    Greenland Seas, strengthening the coherent shelf break current along the eastern rim of the Nordic Seas. However, long-term moored observations in the Barents Sea Opening and the northern Fram Strait reveal that Atlantic water transport in both branches vary with the opposite phase on the inter-annual time scale. This suggests that in the periods of weaker Atlantic water flow in the shelf break current, the increased transport in the Barents Sea Branch can also further weaken the Fram Strait Branch. The anomalously warm AW inflow in the Fram Strait Branch has a strong impact on sea ice conditions in the southern Nansen Basin, while positive transport anomalies in the Barents Sea Branch increase availability of oceanic heat in the Barents Sea and subsequently influence its sea ice cover. Here we present the results of the Polish-Norwegian project PAVE, focusing on variability and recent warming of the Atlantic Water inflow through Fram Strait and Barents Sea, and addressing mechanisms that govern the AW split between both branches and its potential consequences.

  4. Thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent during Termination 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Chiessi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SST of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MAT over southeastern South America. It was suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC would strengthen (weaken and the North Brazil Current (NBC would weaken (strengthen during slowdown (speed-up events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is largely unknown and a compelling record of the BC-NBC anti-phase behavior remains elusive. Here we address this issue, presenting high temporal resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling–Allerød, in-phase with an existing NBC record. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas, and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental to drive the Earth out of the last glacial.

  5. Distinct global warming rates tied to multiple ocean surface temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang; Wang, Pengfei

    2017-07-01

    The globally averaged surface temperature has shown distinct multi-decadal fluctuations since 1900, characterized by two weak slowdowns in the mid-twentieth century and early twenty-first century and two strong accelerations in the early and late twentieth century. While the recent global warming (GW) hiatus has been particularly ascribed to the eastern Pacific cooling, causes of the cooling in the mid-twentieth century and distinct intensity differences between the slowdowns and accelerations remain unclear. Here, our model experiments with multiple ocean sea surface temperature (SST) forcing reveal that, although the Pacific SSTs play essential roles in the GW rates, SST changes in other basins also exert vital influences. The mid-twentieth-century cooling results from the SST cooling in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, which is partly offset by the Southern Ocean warming. During the recent hiatus, the tropical Pacific-induced strong cooling is largely compensated by warming effects of other oceans. In contrast, during the acceleration periods, ubiquitous SST warming across all the oceans acts jointly to exaggerate the GW. Multi-model simulations with separated radiative forcing suggest diverse causes of the SST changes in multiple oceans during the GW acceleration and slowdown periods. Our results highlight the importance of multiple oceans on the multi-decadal GW rates.

  6. 围术期保温措施对经尿道前列腺电切术患者麻醉恢复期的影响%On Effects of Perioperative Warming on TURP Patients in Anesthesia Recovery Period

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴昉; 施惠

    2014-01-01

    目的:探讨围术期保温措施对经尿道前列腺电切术(TURP)患者麻醉恢复期的影响。方法选择60例行TURP患者,按随机数字表法分为研究组和对照组,每组30例。两组患者均给予标准的全麻诱导、维持程序。研究组采用围术期综合保温措施,对照组采用常规保温方法。对比两组患者不同时间点的体温以及患者入麻醉恢复室(PACU)时的平均动脉压(MAP)、Steward苏醒评分、视觉模拟评分(VAS)、脉搏血氧饱和度(SpO2)。结果两组患者在术前、术中及入PACU 后60分时体温差异均无统计学意义(P﹥0.05);对照组在入PACU时、入PACU 30分时的体温均低于研究组(P<0.05);两组患者在入PACU时,MAP、SpO2差异无统计学意义(P﹥0.05),对照组的Steward苏醒评分低于研究组而VAS评分高于研究组(P<0.05)。结论围术期保温措施可有助于维持TURP患者麻醉恢复期体温平稳,降低其疼痛程度,防止患者的苏醒延迟。%Objective to study the effects of perioperative warming on TURP patients in anesthesia recovery period. Methods 60 cases of TURP patients are divided into experimental group and control group at random, 30 cases in each group, both of which are given the same standard induction and maintenance of general anesthesia. The experimental group takes the perioperative warming while the other group takes the traditional warming. Comparisons and contrasts have been made between the two groups on temperatures at different time, MAP of patients in PACU, Steward scores, VAS and SpO2. Results The temperature differences of the two groups before operation, during operation, and after 60 minutes in PACU show no statistical significance(P﹥0.05). The temperature of control group is lower than experimental group at the entry of PACU and after 30 minutes in PACU(P<0.05). Both groups show no statistical significance(P﹥0.05) on MAP and SpO2 when they enter PACU. Besides

  7. Indian - Atlantic interocean exchange: variability and controls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schouten, Mathijs Wilhelmus

    2002-01-01

    South of Africa, warm Indian Ocean water enters the Atlantic Ocean by means of large Agulhas Rings. These rings, with diameters up to 350 km and reaching all the way to the ocean floor at 5 km depth, form an important link in the global thermohaline circulation, which is the driving force behind the

  8. Interhemispheric coupling and warm Antarctic interglacials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. B. Holden

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than pre-industrial (CO2 ~280 ppm in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3 000 years and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs. We here present transient 800 kyr simulations using the intermediate complexity model GENIE-1 which suggest that WPTs could be explained as a consequence of the meltwater-forced slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC during glacial terminations. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern Sea Surface Temperature (SST through the bipolar seesaw. Observational data supports this hypothesis, suggesting that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we additionally present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 Before Present (BP. These simulations together reproduce both the timing and magnitude of WPTs, and point to the potential importance of an albedo feedback associated with West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS retreat.

  9. Property changes of deep and bottom waters in the Western Tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrford, Josefine; Brandt, Peter; Zenk, Walter

    2017-06-01

    The flow of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) contributes to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Changes in the associated water mass formation might impact the deep ocean's capacity to take up anthropogenic CO2 while a warming of the deep ocean significantly contributes to global sea level rise. Here we compile historic and recent shipboard measurements of hydrography and velocity to provide a comprehensive view of water mass distribution, pathways, along-path transformation and long-term temperature changes of NADW and AABW in the western South and Equatorial Atlantic. We confirm previous results which show that the northwest corner of the Brazil Basin represents a splitting point for the southward/northward flow of NADW/AABW. The available measurements sample water mass transformation along the two major routes for deep and bottom waters in the tropical to South Atlantic - along the deep western boundary and eastward, parallel to the equator - as well as the hot-spots of extensive mixing. We find lower NADW and lighter AABW to form a highly interactive transition layer in the northern Brazil Basin. The AABW north of 5°S is relatively homogeneous with only lighter AABW being able to pass through the Equatorial Channel (EQCH) into the North Atlantic. Spanning a period of 26 years, our data also allow an estimation of long-term temperature trends in abyssal waters. We find a warming of 2.5±0.7•10-3 °C yr-1 of the waters in the northern Brazil Basin at temperatures colder than 0.6 °C throughout the period 1989-2014 and can relate this warming to a thinning of the dense AABW layer. Whereas isopycnal heave is the dominant effect which defines the vertical distribution of temperature trends on isobars, we also find temperature changes on isopycnals in the lower NADW and AABW layers. There temperatures on isopycnals exhibit decadal variations with warming in the 1990s and cooling in the 2000s - the contributions to the

  10. The roles of external forcing and natural variability in global warming hiatuses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei

    2016-11-01

    Global mean surface temperature (GMST) rising has slowed down since late 1990s, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. There was another global warming hiatus event during 1940s-1960s. The roles of the external forcing and the natural variability in both global warming hiatuses are explored, using EOF analysis. The first two leading EOF modes of the 5-year running mean global sea surface temperature (SST) reflect the global warming scenario (EOF1) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO)-like natural variability (EOF2), respectively. In observation, PC2 was in its positive phase (eastern Pacific cooling) during 1940s-1960s, which contributed to the previous warming hiatus. In addition, GMST trends are found to be negative during late 1950s and 1960s in most of the CMIP5 historical runs, which implies that the external forcing also contributed to the pause in the GMST rising. It is further demonstrated that it is the natural radiative forcing (volcanic forcing) that caused the drop-down of GMST in 1960s. The current global warming hiatus has been attributed to the eastern Pacific cooling/enhanced Pacific trade winds. It is shown that the PC2 switched to its positive phase in late 1990s, and hence the IPO-like natural variability made a contribution to the slowdown of GMST rising in the past decade. It is also found that the EOF1 mode (global warming mode) of the observed SST features a smaller warming in tropical Pacific compared to the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. Such inter-basin warming contrast, which is attributed to the "ocean thermostat" mechanism, has been suggested to contribute to the intensification of Pacific trade winds since late 1990s as well. Global warming hiatuses are also found in the future projections from CMIP5 models, and the spatial pattern of the SST trends during the warming-hiatus periods exhibits an IPO-like pattern, which resembles the observed SST trends since late 1990s.

  11. Holocene oscillations in temperature and salinity of the surface subpolar North Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornalley, David J R; Elderfield, Harry; McCave, I Nick

    2009-02-05

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports warm salty surface waters to high latitudes, where they cool, sink and return southwards at depth. Through its attendant meridional heat transport, the AMOC helps maintain a warm northwestern European climate, and acts as a control on the global climate. Past climate fluctuations during the Holocene epoch ( approximately 11,700 years ago to the present) have been linked with changes in North Atlantic Ocean circulation. The behaviour of the surface flowing salty water that helped drive overturning during past climatic changes is, however, not well known. Here we investigate the temperature and salinity changes of a substantial surface inflow to a region of deep-water formation throughout the Holocene. We find that the inflow has undergone millennial-scale variations in temperature and salinity ( approximately 3.5 degrees C and approximately 1.5 practical salinity units, respectively) most probably controlled by subpolar gyre dynamics. The temperature and salinity variations correlate with previously reported periods of rapid climate change. The inflow becomes more saline during enhanced freshwater flux to the subpolar North Atlantic. Model studies predict a weakening of AMOC in response to enhanced Arctic freshwater fluxes, although the inflow can compensate on decadal timescales by becoming more saline. Our data suggest that such a negative feedback mechanism may have operated during past intervals of climate change.

  12. Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Winter Climate of East China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the multidecadal variation of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), exhibits an oscillation with a period of 65-80 years and an amplitude of 0.4°C. Observational composite analyses reveal that the warm phase AMO is linked to warmer winters in East China, with enhanced precipitation in the north of this region and reduced precipitation in the south, on multidecaclal time scales. The pattern is reversed during the cold phase AMO. Whether the AMO acts as a forcing of the multidecadal winter climate of East China is explored by investigating the atmospheric response to warm AMO SST anomalies in a large ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments.The results from three AGCMs are consistent and suggest that the AMO warmth favors warmer winters in East China. This influence is realized through inducing negative surface air pressure anomalies in the hemispheric-wide domain extending from the midlatitude North Atlantic to midlatitude Eurasia. These negative surface anomalies favor the weakening of the Mongolian Cold High, and thus induce a weaker East Asian Winter Monsoon.

  13. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

    2016-08-01

    This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1-2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest-southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.

  14. Implications of polar ocean surface stratification changes on a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauch, Henning; Kandiano, Evgenia; Thibodeau, Benoit; Pedersen, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    In the North Polar oceans surface properties have a significant influence on regional climate development. Stratification and salinity in this area are not just strongly coupled, they directly affect North Atlantic deepwater production and, thus, the ventilation of the deep sea and global ocean circulation. Besides a direct feedback on surface heat transfer to the Polar North, the response of upper stratification in a crucial region such as the Nordic Seas to near-future hydrologic forcing as surface water in the polar ocean warms and freshens due to global temperature rise and glacier demise, is still largely unresolved. We paired bulk sediment δ15N isotopic signatures with planktic foraminiferal assemblages across three major interglacials, each of which could be viewed as an analogue of the present. The isotope vs. foraminifer comparison defines stratification-induced variations in nitrate utilization between and within all of these warm periods and signifies changes in the thickness of the mixed-layer throughout the previous interglacials. As the thickness directly controls the depth-level of Atlantic water inflow, the changes recorded here suggest that drastic variations in freshwater water input associated with each preceding glacial terminations caused the Atlantic water to flow at greater depth. Backed up by independent salinity reconstructions using hydrogen isotope composition in alkenones, an active involvement of both glacial ice sheet size and subsequent specific melting history on interglacial climate development is suggested. Although the results also call for caution when using older interglacials as future climate analogues, they do help to better understand the effect of freshwater input on climate-sensitive ocean sites. It is further indicated that any future increase in freshwater flux into the polar oceans would not necessarily stop by itself the poleward advection of Atlantic water.

  15. Decadal cyclone variability in the North Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luksch, U.; Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. of Hamburg (Germany); Raible, C.C. [Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Inst., Univ. of Bern (Switzerland)

    2005-12-01

    The unstable midlatitude ocean-atmosphere coupling motivates the definition of two decadal regimes with distinct implications for the North Atlantic cyclone variability. Phases with low (high) decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which are connected with an annular (sectoral) spatial scale of the geopotential height teleconnection pattern, are identified as a hemispheric (regional) regime. In the hemispheric regime during a positive El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (warm event), the North Atlantic cyclones and the regions of enhanced precipitation shift southward while over northern Europe the cyclone activity and the rainfall are reduced. During the regional regime this impact of ENSO on the Atlantic storm track is extremely small and a clear interpretation over Europe is inhibited. (orig.)

  16. Modelling the future biogeography of North Atlantic zooplankton communities in response to climate change

    KAUST Repository

    Villarino, E

    2015-07-02

    Advances in habitat and climate modelling allow us to reduce uncertainties of climate change impacts on species distribution. We evaluated the impacts of future climate change on community structure, diversity, distribution and phenology of 14 copepod species in the North Atlantic. We developed and validated habitat models for key zooplankton species using continuous plankton recorder (CPR) survey data collected at mid latitudes of the North Atlantic. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to relate the occurrence of species to environmental variables. Models were projected to future (2080–2099) environmental conditions using coupled hydroclimatix–biogeochemical models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B climate scenario, and compared to present (2001–2020) conditions. Our projections indicated that the copepod community is expected to respond substantially to climate change: a mean poleward latitudinal shift of 8.7 km per decade for the overall community with an important species range variation (–15 to 18 km per decade); the species seasonal peak is expected to occur 12–13 d earlier for Calanus finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus; and important changes in community structure are also expected (high species turnover of 43–79% south of the Oceanic Polar Front). The impacts of the change expected by the end of the century under IPCC global warming scenarios on copepods highlight poleward shifts, earlier seasonal peak and changes in biodiversity spatial patterns that might lead to alterations of the future North Atlantic pelagic ecosystem. Our model and projections are supported by a temporal validation undertaken using the North Atlantic climate regime shift that occurred in the 1980s: the habitat model built in the cold period (1970–1986) has been validated in the warm period (1987–2004).

  17. Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocas, William M.; Felis, Thomas; Obert, J. Christina; Gierz, Paul; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Denis; Kölling, Martin; Scheffers, Sander R.

    2016-09-01

    Reconstructions of last interglacial (LIG, MIS 5e, ∼127-117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. We present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire (Caribbean Netherlands). These have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 120 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) temperature proxy records. In conjunction with a previously published 118 ka coral record, our eight records of up to 37 years in length, cover a total of 105 years within the LIG period. From these, sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality and variability in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. We detect similar to modern SST seasonality of ∼2.9 °C during the early (130 ka) and the late LIG (120-118 ka). However, within the mid-LIG, a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9 °C (at 126 ka) and 4.1 °C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the LIG, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period. The climate model simulations suggest that the SST seasonality changes documented in our LIG coral Sr/Ca records are representative of larger regions within the tropical North Atlantic. These simulations also suggest that the reconstructed SST seasonality increase during the mid-LIG is caused primarily by summer warming. A 124 ka old coral documents, for the first time, evidence of decadal SST variability in the tropical North Atlantic during the LIG, akin to that observed in modern instrumental records.

  18. Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Rohit; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna; Bader, Jürgen

    2017-06-01

    The observed prominent multidecadal variations in the central to eastern (C-E) European summer temperature are closely related to the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis project version 2 data for the period of 1930-2012, we present a mechanism by which the multidecadal variations in the C-E European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. Our results suggest that over the north-western Atlantic, the positive heat flux anomaly triggers a surface baroclinic pressure response to diabatic heating with a negative surface pressure anomaly to the east of the heat source. Further downstream, this response induces an east-west wave-like pressure anomaly. The east-west wave-like response in the sea level pressure structure, to which we refer as North-Atlantic-European East West (NEW) mode, is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation and is the principal mode of variations during summer over the Euro-Atlantic region at multidecadal time scales. The NEW mode causes warming of the C-E European region by creating an atmospheric blocking-like situation. Our findings also suggest that this NEW mode is responsible for the multidecadal variations in precipitation over the British Isles and north-western Europe.

  19. Changes in Holocene meridional circulation and poleward Atlantic flow: the Bay of Biscay as a nodal point

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary, Yannick; Eynaud, Frédérique; Colin, Christophe; Rossignol, Linda; Brocheray, Sandra; Mojtahid, Meryem; Garcia, Jennifer; Peral, Marion; Howa, Hélène; Zaragosi, Sébastien; Cremer, Michel

    2017-03-01

    This paper documents the evolution over the last 10 kyr of one of the key parameters of climate: sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic. We focus on the southern Bay of Biscay, a highly sensitive oceanographic area regarding the dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar and subtropical gyres (SPG and STG respectively). This site furthermore offers unique sedimentary environments characterized by exceptional accumulation rates, enabling the study of Holocene archives at (infra)centennial scales. Our results mainly derive from planktonic foraminiferal association analysis on two cores from the southern Landes Plateau. These associations are used as the basis of modern analogue technique transfer functions to track past hydrographical changes. SST reconstructions were thus obtained at an exceptional resolution and compared to a compilation of Holocene records from the northeastern North Atlantic. From this regional perspective are shown fundamental timing differences between the gyre dynamics, nuancing classical views of a simple meridional overturning cell. Our study highlights that western Europe underwent significant oscillations of (annual) SST during the last 10 kyr. During well-known intervals of mild boreal climate, warm shifts of more than 3 °C per century are accurately concomitant with positive sea-surface temperature anomalies and rise of micropalaeontological indicators of gyre dynamics in the northern North Atlantic, pointing to periods of greater intensity of the North Atlantic Current (SPG cell especially). Conversely, the SST signal records short-term cold anomalies which could be related to weaker SPG dynamics.

  20. The glaciology of IRD events: warming and ice dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindmarsh, R. C. A.

    2003-04-01

    Heinrich events, the enormous glacial-period ice-rafting episodeshave been posited to be due to large-scale surges of the Laurentide ice-sheet (3). However, more frequent events such as the Bond events are difficult to explain this way. Recently acquired geological evidence (2,4) suggests that climatic perturbations are correlated with some N. Atlantic IRD events. A model (1) which show how climate perturbations can lead to IRD events is reviewed. The model shows how 20-50km retreats induced by ablation rates of 2 m/yr provide sufficient debris flux through the grounding line to produce large sedimentation events. Such ablation would reduce ice-shelf extent markedly, permitting debris to reach the calving front and be transported by icebergs leading to ice-rafted debris (IRD) events. Surges are not necessary conditions for the production of large IRD events. The glacial dynamics of this climate perturbation model is compared with the surge theory, with particular emphasis on the amount of sediment that either method can deliver to the oceans. Consideration of the non-exclusivety and consistency of the two mechanisms is emphasised. (1) R.C.A. Hindmarsh and A. Jenkins, Centurial-millenial ice-rafted debris pulses from ablating marine ice sheets, Geophys Res. Lett 22(12), 2477-2480, 2001; (2) Paul C. Knutz et al. G3 Multidecadal ocean variability and NW European ice sheet surges during the last deglaciation G3 3(12) 17 December 2002 1077, doi:10.1029/2002GC000351; (3) MacAyeal,D.R. Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide ice-sheet as a cause of the North-Atlantic's Heinrich events, Paleoceanography, 8(6), p.775-784, (1993); (4) M. Moros, et. al. Were glacial iceberg surges in the North Atlantic triggered by climatic warming?, Marine Geology, 192(4), 2002, p.393-417

  1. Global Warming on Triton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.; Buie, M. W.; Pasachoff, J. M.; Babcock, B. A.; McConnochie, T. H.

    1998-01-01

    Triton, Neptune's largest moon, has been predicted to undergo significant seasonal changes that would reveal themselves as changes in its mean frost temperature. But whether this temperature should at the present time be increasing, decreasing or constant depends on a number of parameters (such as the thermal properties of the surface, and frost migration patterns) that are unknown. Here we report observations of a recent stellar occultation by Triton which, when combined with earlier results, show that Triton has undergone a period of global warming since 1989. Our most conservative estimates of the rate of temperature and surface-pressure increase during this period imply that the atmosphere is doubling in bulk every 10 years, significantly faster than predicted by any published frost model for Triton. Our result suggests that permanent polar caps on Triton play a c dominant role in regulating seasonal atmospheric changes. Similar processes should also be active on Pluto.

  2. Multiple 'Stable' States of Antarctic Intermediate Water: A Study from the Subantarctic South-West Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J.; Hodell, D. A.; Peck, V. L.; Kender, S.

    2014-12-01

    Modelling studies suggest that density changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) played a significant role in the reorganisation of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation over the last glacial period. From its principal site of formation in the SE Pacific, a significant proportion of AAIW is entrained in the Antarctic circumpolar current and enters the Atlantic through Drake Passage. Air-sea interaction within the subAntarctic SW Atlantic modifies this AAIW further, producing a cooler and fresher Atlantic end member of AAIW. Our core site is located where this branch of AAIW subducts and travels northwards along the western margin of the Atlantic basin. We present the first high-resolution, multi-proxy study of AAIW in the sub-Antarctic SW Atlantic over the last 140 kyrs. Here, we focus on the temperature and salinity records over the last two glacial terminations and at the onset of the last glaciation. We use a combination of benthic stable isotopes and elemental ratios (Mg/Ca) on the shallow infaunal species Uvigerina peregrina to reconstruct AAIW temperature and salinity. Our records suggest that AAIW temperature both increased and decreased in a step-wise manner over the last 120 kyrs hinting at 3 'stable' states for AAIW through the last glacial cycle (see shaded areas within figure). Another common feature is a transient interval of apparently warm, saline AAIW observed at the onset of both glacial terminations - could this be evidence of the 'deep, salty blob' or of increased outflow of Pacific surface waters? We identify some fundamental differences between termination I and termination II; AAIW appears to have been markedly warmer during MIS6 than at the LGM. Furthermore, the glacial-interglacial potential density difference is much greater over termination I than termination II.

  3. Pliocene pre-glacial North Atlantic: A coupled sea surface-deep ocean circulation climate response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishman, S.E.; Dowsett, H.J. (Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States). National Center)

    1992-01-01

    A latitudinal transect of North Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project Holes from the equatorial region to 56 N in the 2,300- to 3,000-meter depth range was designed for a high-resolution study of coupled sea surface and deep ocean response to climate change. Precise age control was provided using magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data from the cores to identify the 4.0 to 2.2 Ma interval, a period of warm-to-cool climatic transitions in the North Atlantic. The objective is to evaluate incremental (10 kyr) changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and deep North Atlantic circulation patterns between 4.0 and 2.2 Ma to develop a coupled sea surface-deep ocean circulation response model. Sea surface temperature (SST) estimates are based on planktic foraminifer-based factor-analytic transfer functions. Oxygen isotopic data from paired samples provide tests of the estimated temperature gradients between localities. Benthic foraminifer assemblage data and [partial derivative]O-18 and [partial derivative]C-13 Isotopic data are used to quantitatively determine changes in deep North Atlantic circulation. These data are used to determine changes in source area (North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) or Antarctic Bottom Water) and (or) in the components of NADW that were present (Upper or Lower NADW). These paired paleoceanographic sea surface and deep circulation interpretations over a 1.8 my interval form the basis for a coupled sea surface-deep circulation response model for the Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean.

  4. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2017-07-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  5. Arctic climate and its interaction with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming in a global coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent

    2016-09-01

    Three quasi-equilibrium simulations using constant greenhouse gas forcing corresponding to years 2000, 2015 and 2030 have been performed with the global coupled model EC-Earth in order to analyze the Arctic climate and interactions with lower latitudes under different levels of anthropogenic warming. The model simulations indicate an accelerated warming and ice extent reduction in the Arctic between the year-2030 and year-2015 simulations compared to the change between the year-2015 and year-2000 simulations. Both Arctic warming and sea ice reduction are closely linked to the increase of ocean heat transport into the Arctic, particularly through the Barents Sea Opening. Decadal variations of Arctic sea ice extent and ice volume are of the same order of magnitude as the observed ice extent reductions in the last 30 years and are dominated by the variability of the ocean heat transports through the Barents Sea Opening and the Bering Strait. Despite a general warming of mid and high northern latitudes, a substantial cooling is found in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic under year-2015 and year-2030 conditions. This cooling is related to a strong reduction in the AMOC, itself due to reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea. The observed trend towards a more negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed linkage between autumn Arctic ice variations and NAO are reproduced in our model simulations for selected 30-year periods but are not robust over longer time periods. This indicates that the observed linkages between ice and NAO might not be robust in reality either, and that the observational time period is still too short to reliably separate the trend from the natural variability.

  6. High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

    2017-05-02

    Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulTemx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulTemx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to

  7. Hydrographic changes in the subpolar North Atlantic at the MCA to LIA transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divine, Dmitry; Miettinen, Arto; Husum, Katrine; Koc, Nalan

    2016-04-01

    A network of four marine sediment cores from the northern North Atlantic is used to study hydrographic changes in surface water masses during the last 2000 years with a special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) transition. Three of the cores are recovered from the sites located on main pathways of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic: M95-2011 (Vøring plateau, Norwegian Sea), Rapid-21 COM and LO-14 (Reykjanes Ridge, south of Iceland). The fourth core MD99-2322 is from the SE Greenland shelf (Denmark Strait), and it is influenced by the cold water outflow from the Arctic. The cores were analyzed continuously for planktonic diatoms with a high decadal to subdecadal temporal resolution. Past changes in the spatial distribution of surface water masses have been studied identifying factors, or typical species compositions, in downcore diatom assemblages. To derive the factors a Q-mode factor analysis has been applied to the extended modern calibration data set of 184 surface sediment samples from the North Atlantic, the Labrador Sea, the Nordic Seas, and Baffin Bay. SSTs have also been reconstructed using transfer functions. Variations of the reconstructed SSTs and loadings of major contributing factors reveal a complex regional pattern of changes in the structure of circulation during the MCA/LIA transition (1200-1400 AD). In the Norwegian Sea, the factors associated with assemblages typical for warmer and saline North Atlantic waters are partly displaced by colder and fresher water dwelling diatoms suggesting an eastward migration of mixed Arctic/Atlantic water masses into the Norwegian Sea. The two cores south of Iceland show a westward propagation of a warm water pulse as evidenced by the dominance of assemblages, which today are typical for the waters ca 5° further south than the current study sites. At the SE Greenland shelf an abrupt shift (ca. 50 years) in factors associated with different sea ice zone dwelling diatoms

  8. Effect of PGF2α and GnRH on the reproductive performance of postpartum dairy cows subjected to synchronization of ovulation and timed artificial insemination during the warm or cold periods of the year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbarabadi, M Afsari; Shabankareh, H Karami; Abdolmohammadi, A; Shahsavari, M H

    2014-08-01

    This study was designed to evaluate the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows (Holstein Friesian) after the injection of PGF2α analogue on Day 15 postpartum, and GnRH analogue on Day 23 after artificial insemination (AI) with Presynch (two injections of PGF2α, administered 14 days apart starting at 30-35 days postpartum) + Ovsynch-based (GnRH-7 days-PGF2α-2 days-GnRH-16-20 hours-timed artificial insemination) treatments, during the warm and cold periods of the year. All the cows (n = 313) were assigned to one of the four groups including: M1 (n = 72) in which the cows were treated with PGF2α on Day 15 postpartum + Presynch-Ovsynch + GnRH on Day 23 post-AI; M2 (n = 41) in which the cows received PGF2α on Day 15 postpartum + Presynch-Ovsynch; M3 (n = 100) including the cows that got Presynch-Ovsynch; and control group (n = 100) including the cows that were not treated and were inseminated at natural estrus. Pregnancy diagnosis was performed 28 to 35 days post-insemination by means of ultrasound. The results showed that treatment with PGF2α on Day 15 postpartum significantly decreased the days to conception and the number of services per conception (P 0.05). In contrast, administration of GnRH on Day 23 post-AI increased the days to conception and the number of service per conception (P artificial insemination after Presynch-Ovsynch protocol but also reduced that.

  9. Do the recent severe droughts in the Amazonia have the same period of length?

    CERN Document Server

    Zou, Yong; Sampaio, Gilvan; Mário, Antônio; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new measure based on drought period length to assess the temporal difference between the recent two severe droughts of 2005 and 2010 in the Amazonia. The sensitivity of the measure is demonstrated by disclosing the distinct spatial responding mechanisms of the Northeastern and Southwestern Amazon (NA, SA) to the surrounding sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans have different roles on the precipitation patterns in Amazonia. More specifically, the very dry periods in the NA are influenced by El Ni\\~no events, while the very dry periods in the SA are affected by the anomalously warming of the SST in the North Atlantic. We show convincingly that the drought 2005 hit SA, which is caused by the North Atlantic only. There are two phases in the drought 2010: (i) it was started in the NA in August 2009 affected by the El Ni\\~no event, and (ii) later shifted the center of action to SA resulted from anomalously high SST in North Atlantic, which further intensifies the...

  10. Do the recent severe droughts in the Amazonia have the same period of length?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Yong; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-05-01

    We propose a new measure based on drought period length to assess the temporal difference between the recent two severe droughts of 2005 and 2010 in the Amazonia. The sensitivity of the measure is demonstrated by disclosing the distinct spatial responding mechanisms of the Northeastern and Southwestern Amazon (NA, SA) to the surrounding sea surface temperature (SST) variabilities. The Pacific and Atlantic oceans have different roles on the precipitation patterns in Amazonia. More specifically, the very dry periods in the NA are influenced by El Niño events, while the very dry periods in the SA are affected by the anomalously warming of the SST in the North Atlantic. Our analysis discloses convincingly that the drought 2005 hit SA, which is correlated to the North Atlantic only. Furthermore, it suggests that there are two phases in the drought 2010: (1) it was started in the NA in August 2009 co-occurred with the El Niño event, and (2) later shifted the center of action to SA resulted from anomalously high SST in North Atlantic, which further intensifies the impacts on the spatial coverage.

  11. Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: decadal change, impact, and possible mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, J.

    2010-12-01

    also plays important role in the SNAO pattern shift. During the past half century, the TASST experienced an abrupt change around the late 1970s, with a rapid warming in the recent 2 decades. Thus in the period after the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively warmer, the TASST released more energy into the atmosphere, then stimulated strong convection over the tropical Atlantic, and further excited anomalous wave-like patterns. This strengthened the circulation in the region of the Mediterranean Sea, namely the east part of the SNAO southern center, consequently leading to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center. Meanwhile, in the period before the late 1970s when the TASST is relatively cooler, the TASST released less energy into the atmosphere, so its impact on the overlying atmosphere was significantly weakened and confined to the lower-level atmosphere of the tropical Atlantic. Thus the TASST possibly did not influence the variability of the SNAO southern center, and the SNAO pattern exhibited a traditional distribution with two centers over the North Atlantic.

  12. Climate Change: Sources of Warming in the Late 20th Century

    CERN Document Server

    Marsh, Gerald E

    2009-01-01

    The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, volcanic and other aerosols, as well as the extraordinary solar activity of the late 20th century are discussed in the context of the warming since the mid-1970s. Much of that warming is found to be due to natural causes.

  13. Tropical forcing of the recent rapid Arctic warming in northeastern Canada and Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Qinghua; Wallace, John M; Battisti, David S; Steig, Eric J; Gallant, Ailie J E; Kim, Hyung-Jin; Geng, Lei

    2014-05-08

    Rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice reduction in the Arctic Ocean are widely attributed to anthropogenic climate change. The Arctic warming exceeds the global average warming because of feedbacks that include sea-ice reduction and other dynamical and radiative feedbacks. We find that the most prominent annual mean surface and tropospheric warming in the Arctic since 1979 has occurred in northeastern Canada and Greenland. In this region, much of the year-to-year temperature variability is associated with the leading mode of large-scale circulation variability in the North Atlantic, namely, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Here we show that the recent warming in this region is strongly associated with a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is a response to anomalous Rossby wave-train activity originating in the tropical Pacific. Atmospheric model experiments forced by prescribed tropical sea surface temperatures simulate the observed circulation changes and associated tropospheric and surface warming over northeastern Canada and Greenland. Experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (ref. 16) models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing show no similar circulation changes related to the North Atlantic Oscillation or associated tropospheric warming. This suggests that a substantial portion of recent warming in the northeastern Canada and Greenland sector of the Arctic arises from unforced natural variability.

  14. Persistent influence of tropical North Atlantic wintertime sea surface temperature on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xidong; Liu, Hailong; Foltz, Gregory R.

    2017-08-01

    This study explores the seasonally lagged impact of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) on the subsequent Atlantic hurricane season. It is found that wintertime SST anomalies in the MDR can persist into the summer, explaining 42% of the variance in the subsequent hurricane season's SST during 1951-2010. An anomalously warm wintertime in the MDR is usually followed by an anomalously active hurricane season. Analysis shows an important constraint on the seasonal evolution of the MDR SST by the water vapor feedback process, in addition to the well-known wind-evaporation-SST and cloud-SST feedback mechanisms over the tropical North Atlantic. The water vapor feedback influences the seasonal evolution of MDR SST by modulating seasonal variations of downward longwave radiation. This wintertime thermal control of hurricane activity has significant implications for seasonal predictions and long-term projections of hurricane activity over the North Atlantic.

  15. Projected changes of snow conditions and avalanche activity in a warming climate: a case study in the French Alps over the 2020–2050 and 2070–2100 periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Castebrunet

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Projecting changes in snow cover due to climate warming is important for many societal issues, including adaptation of avalanche risk mitigation strategies. Efficient modeling of future snow cover requires high resolution to properly resolve the topography. Here, we detail results obtained through statistical downscaling techniques allowing simulations of future snowpack conditions for the mid- and late 21st century in the French Alps under three climate change scenarios. Refined statistical descriptions of snowpack characteristics are provided with regards to a 1960–1990 reference period, including latitudinal, altitudinal and seasonal gradients. These results are then used to feed a statistical model of avalanche activity–snow conditions–meteorological conditions relationships, so as to produce the first prognoses at annual/seasonal time scales of future natural avalanche activity eventually based on past observations. The resulting statistical indicators are fundamental for the mountain economy in terms of changes anticipation. At all considered spatio-temporal scales, whereas precipitations are expected to remain quite stationary, temperature increase interacting with topography will control snow-related variables, for instance the rate of decrease of total and dry snow depths, and the successive increase/decrease of the wet snow pack. Overall, with regards to the reference period, changes are strong for the end of the 21st century, but already significant for the mid-century. Changes in winter are somewhat less important than in spring, but wet snow conditions will appear at high elevations earlier in the season. For a given altitude, the Southern French Alps will not be significantly more affected than the Northern French Alps, so that the snowpack characteristics will be preserved more lately in the southern massifs of higher mean altitude. Regarding avalanche activity, a general −20–30% decrease and interannual variability is

  16. Interannual-to-decadal variability of the North Atlantic from an ocean data assimilation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masina, S.; Di Pietro, P.; Navarra, A. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2004-10-01

    An ocean analysis, assimilating both surface and subsurface hydrographic temperature data into a global ocean model, has been produced for the period 1958-2000, and used to study the time and space variations of North Atlantic upper ocean heat content (HC). Observational evidence is presented for interannual-to-decadal variability of upper ocean thermal fluctuations in the North Atlantic related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability over the last 40 years. The assimilation scheme used in the ocean analysis is a univariate, variational optimum interpolation of temperature. The first guess is produced by an eddy permitting global ocean general circulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The validation of the ocean analysis has been done through the comparison with objectively analyzed observations and independent data sets. The method is able to compensate for the model systematic error to reproduce a realistic vertical thermal structure of the region and to improve consistently the model estimation of the time variability of the upper ocean temperature. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that an important mode of variability of the wintertime upper ocean climate over the North Atlantic during the period of study is characterized by a tripole pattern both for SST and upper ocean HC. A similar mode is found for summer HC anomalies but not for summer SST. Over the whole period, HC variations in the subtropics show a general warming trend while the tropical and north eastern part of the basin have an opposite cooling tendency. Superimposed on this linear trend, the HC variability explained by the first EOF both in winter and summer conditions reveals quasi-decadal oscillations correlated with changes in the NAO index. On the other hand, there is no evidence of correlation in time between the NAO index and the upper ocean HC averaged over the whole North Atlantic which exhibits a

  17. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Sudden Stratospheric Warming Compendium (SSWC) data set documents the stratospheric, tropospheric, and surface climate impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. This...

  18. Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wei; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lu, Jian

    2016-03-30

    Ocean heat uptake is observed to penetrate deep into the Atlantic and Southern Oceans during the recent hiatus of global warming. Here we show that the deep heat penetration in these two basins is not unique to the hiatus but is characteristic of anthropogenic warming and merely reflects the depth of the mean meridional overturning circulation in the basin. We find, however, that heat redistribution in the upper 350 m between the Pacific and Indian Oceans is closely tied to the surface warming hiatus. The Indian Ocean shows an anomalous warming below 50 m during hiatus events due to an enhanced heat transport by the Indonesian throughflow in response to the intensified trade winds in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the Pacific and Indian Oceans are the key regions to track ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus.

  19. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the prediction of North Atlantic sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klöwer, M.; Latif, M.; Ding, H.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Park, W.

    2014-11-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major current system in the Atlantic Ocean, is thought to be an important driver of climate variability, both regionally and globally and on a large range of time scales from decadal to centennial and even longer. Measurements to monitor the AMOC strength have only started in 2004, which is too short to investigate its link to long-term climate variability. Here the surface heat flux-driven part of the AMOC during 1900-2010 is reconstructed from the history of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the most energetic mode of internal atmospheric variability in the Atlantic sector. The decadal variations of the AMOC obtained in that way are shown to precede the observed decadal variations in basin-wide North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which strongly impacts societally important quantities such as Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall. The future evolution of the AMO is forecast using the AMOC reconstructed up to 2010. The present warm phase of the AMO is predicted to continue until the end of the next decade, but with a negative tendency.

  20. Atlantic hurricane response to geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, John; Grinsted, Aslak; Ji, Duoying; Yu, Xiaoyong; Guo, Xiaoran

    2015-04-01

    Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase - perhaps by a factor of 5 for a 2°C mean global warming. Geoengineering by sulphate aerosol injection preferentially cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 6 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. We find that although temperatures are ameliorated by geoengineering, the numbers of storm surge events as big as that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are only slightly reduced compared with no geoengineering. As higher levels of sulphate aerosol injection produce diminishing returns in terms of cooling, but cause undesirable effects in various regions, it seems that stratospheric aerosol geoengineering is not an effective method of controlling hurricane damage.

  1. Stratification-induced variations in nutrient utilization in the Polar North Atlantic during past interglacials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibodeau, Benoit; Bauch, Henning A.; Pedersen, Thomas F.

    2017-01-01

    Vertical water mass structure in the Polar North Atlantic Ocean plays a critical role in planetary climate by influencing the formation rate of North Atlantic deepwater, which in turn affects surface heat transfer in the northern hemisphere, ventilation of the deep sea, and ocean circulation on a global scale. However, the response of upper stratification in the Nordic seas to near-future hydrologic forcing, as surface water warms and freshens due to global temperature rise and Greenland ice demise, remains poorly known. While past major interglacials are viewed as potential analogues of the present, recent findings suggest that very different surface ocean conditions prevailed in the Polar North Atlantic during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11 compared to the Holocene. It is thus crucial to identify the causes of those differences in order to understand their role in climatic and oceanographic variability. To resolve this, we pair here bulk sediment δ15N isotopic signatures with planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and their isotopic composition across major past interglacials. The comparison defines for the first time stratification-induced variations in nitrate utilization up to 25% between and within all of these warm periods that highlight changes in the thickness of the mixed-layer throughout the previous interglacials. That thickness directly controls the depth-level of Atlantic water inflow. The major changes of nitrate utilization recorded here thus suggest that a thicker mixed-layer prevailed during past interglacials, probably related to longer freshwater input associated with the preceding glacial termination. This would have caused the Atlantic water to flow at greater depth during MIS 5e and 11. These results call for caution when using older interglacials as modern or near-future climate analogues and contribute to the improvement of our general comprehension of the impact of freshwater input near a globally important deep-water formation site

  2. Somatic growth dynamics of West Atlantic hawksbill sea turtles: a spatio-temporal perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjorndal, Karen A.; Chaloupka, Milani; Saba, Vincent S.; Diez, Carlos E.; van Dam, Robert P.; Krueger, Barry H.; Horrocks, Julia A.; Santos, Armando J. B.; Bellini, Cláudio; Marcovaldi, Maria A. G.; Nava, Mabel; Willis, Sue; Godley, Brendan J.; Gore, Shannon; Hawkes, Lucy A.; McGowan, Andrew; Witt, Matthew J.; Stringell, Thomas B.; Sanghera, Amdeep; Richardson, Peter B.; Broderick, Annette C.; Phillips, Quinton; Calosso, Marta C.; Claydon, John A. B.; Blumenthal, Janice; Moncada, Felix; Nodarse, Gonzalo; Medina, Yosvani; Dunbar, Stephen G.; Wood, Lawrence D.; Lagueux, Cynthia J.; Campbell, Cathi L.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Burns Perez, Virginia R.; Coleman, Robin A.; Strindberg, Samantha; Guzmán-H, Vicente; Hart, Kristen M.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Hillis-Starr, Zandy; Lundgren, Ian; Boulon, Ralf H.; Connett, Stephen; Outerbridge, Mark E.; Bolten, Alan B.

    2016-01-01

    Somatic growth dynamics are an integrated response to environmental conditions. Hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) are long-lived, major consumers in coral reef habitats that move over broad geographic areas (hundreds to thousands of kilometers). We evaluated spatio-temporal effects on hawksbill growth dynamics over a 33-yr period and 24 study sites throughout the West Atlantic and explored relationships between growth dynamics and climate indices. We compiled the largest ever data set on somatic growth rates for hawksbills – 3541 growth increments from 1980 to 2013. Using generalized additive mixed model analyses, we evaluated 10 covariates, including spatial and temporal variation, that could affect growth rates. Growth rates throughout the region responded similarly over space and time. The lack of a spatial effect or spatio-temporal interaction and the very strong temporal effect reveal that growth rates in West Atlantic hawksbills are likely driven by region-wide forces. Between 1997 and 2013, mean growth rates declined significantly and steadily by 18%. Regional climate indices have significant relationships with annual growth rates with 0- or 1-yr lags: positive with the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (correlation = 0.99) and negative with Caribbean sea surface temperature (correlation = −0.85). Declines in growth rates between 1997 and 2013 throughout the West Atlantic most likely resulted from warming waters through indirect negative effects on foraging resources of hawksbills. These climatic influences are complex. With increasing temperatures, trajectories of decline of coral cover and availability in reef habitats of major prey species of hawksbills are not parallel. Knowledge of how choice of foraging habitats, prey selection, and prey abundance are affected by warming water temperatures is needed to understand how climate change will affect productivity of consumers that live in association with coral reefs. Main

  3. Late Holocene intermediate water variability in the northeastern Atlantic as recorded by deep-sea corals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copard, K.; Colin, C.; Henderson, G. M.; Scholten, J.; Douville, E.; Sicre, M.-A.; Frank, N.

    2012-01-01

    The Nd isotopic composition of the aragonite skeleton of fossil deep-sea corals ( Lophelia pertusa, Madrepora oculata and Desmophyllum dianthus) located in the northeastern Atlantic at water depths between 635 and 1300 m was investigated to reconstruct changes in the Atlantic mid-depth gyre circulation during the past millennium. The coral ɛNd values varied systematically from - 11.8 to - 14.4 during the past 1500 years, reflecting variations in seawater ɛNd and thus water mass provenance. Low ɛNd values (ɛNd = - 14) occurred during the warm Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA) (between 1000 AD and 1250 AD) and during the most recent period (1950 AD to 2000 AD), interrupted by a period of significantly higher ɛNd values (~-12.5) during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (between 1350 AD and 1850 AD). One long-lived branching coral even recorded an abrupt systematic rise from low to high ɛNd values around 1250 AD over the course of its 10-year growth period. These variations are interpreted to result from variable contributions of the subpolar and subtropical Atlantic intermediate water masses, which today are characterized by ɛNd values of - 15 and ~-11, respectively. The low ɛNd values observed during the warm MCA and during recent times imply a strong eastward extension of the mid-depth subpolar gyre (SPG) induced by a dominant positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). During the LIA, water from the subtropical gyre (STG) and potentially from the Mediterranean Sea Water (MSW) propagated further northward, as indicated by the higher coral ɛNd values. This pattern suggests a negative mean state of the NAO during the LIA, with weaker and more southerly located Westerlies and a westward contraction of the SPG. Variations in the contributions of the two gyres imply changes in the heat and salt budgets at intermediate depths during the past millennia that may have contributed to changes in the properties of North Atlantic inflow into the Nordic Seas and thus

  4. Saline Indian Ocean waters invaded the South Atlantic thermocline during glacial termination II

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scussolini, P.; Scussolini, G.; Brummer, G.-J.A.; Peeters, F.J.C.

    2015-01-01

    Salty and warm Indian Ocean waters enter the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage, south of Africa. Model simulations and proxy evidence of Agulhas leakage strengthening during glacial terminations led to the hypothesis that it was an important modulator of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Yet, the

  5. Response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to persistent North Atlantic oscillation like forcing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lohmann, Katja; Bentsen, Mats [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Drange, Helge [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway); Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Beijing (China)

    2009-02-15

    The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO-, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing. (orig.)

  6. Strong and deep Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last glacial cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, E; Lippold, J; Gutjahr, M; Frank, M; Blaser, P; Antz, B; Fohlmeister, J; Frank, N; Andersen, M B; Deininger, M

    2015-01-01

    Extreme, abrupt Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations during the last glacial cycle (140,000 years ago to present) were modulated by changes in ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing. However, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which has a role in controlling heat transport from low to high latitudes and in ocean CO2 storage, is still poorly constrained beyond the Last Glacial Maximum. Here we show that a deep and vigorous overturning circulation mode has persisted for most of the last glacial cycle, dominating ocean circulation in the Atlantic, whereas a shallower glacial mode with southern-sourced waters filling the deep western North Atlantic prevailed during glacial maxima. Our results are based on a reconstruction of both the strength and the direction of the AMOC during the last glacial cycle from a highly resolved marine sedimentary record in the deep western North Atlantic. Parallel measurements of two independent chemical water tracers (the isotope ratios of (231)Pa/(230)Th and (143)Nd/(144)Nd), which are not directly affected by changes in the global cycle, reveal consistent responses of the AMOC during the last two glacial terminations. Any significant deviations from this configuration, resulting in slowdowns of the AMOC, were restricted to centennial-scale excursions during catastrophic iceberg discharges of the Heinrich stadials. Severe and multicentennial weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water formation occurred only during Heinrich stadials close to glacial maxima with increased ice coverage, probably as a result of increased fresh-water input. In contrast, the AMOC was relatively insensitive to submillennial meltwater pulses during warmer climate states, and an active AMOC prevailed during Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials (Greenland warm periods).

  7. Salinity changes relative to the response to anthropogenic forcing and internal variability in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya; Buckley, Martha

    2017-04-01

    Over the past few decades, surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic have experienced substantial fluctuations, including periods of rapid cooling and freshening alternating with the periods of enhanced warming, salinification, and decreased circulation of the gyre. Since these waters feed the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, such changes have the potential to impact the global ocean circulation and future climate states. A number of potential causes for the observed changes have been suggested, including those related to the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transports, as well as other factors, such as anthropogenic aerosol forcing or changes in surface fluxes. Here we assess how the observed warming/salinification events fit into the long-term picture, focusing on variations in upper-ocean salinity. Salinification of the subpolar North Atlantic may seem counter-intuitive to the reported long-term increase in freshwater supply to the region from river discharge and ice melting, sparking debates about whether the freshening of the subpolar gyre has ceased, and whether the recent salinification, if continued, will be able to forestall the projected slowdown of the overturning circulation. Using a suite of in situ salinity observations spanning the last 60 years, modern satellite salinity observations from Aquarius and SMOS missions, and multi-decadal realizations from global climate models, we estimate the likelihood of such salinity changes in the context of the historical record, contemporary estimates, and future projections. Results are discussed in terms of the probability of occurrence of a decade-long salinification in the presence of the background freshening in response to anthropogenic forcing. In particular, computed probabilities suggest that such "unusual" salinification events are plausible under the strong influence of internal, decadal-to-interdecadal variability.

  8. Observed changes in seasonal heat waves and warm temperature extremes in the Romanian Carpathians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micu, Dana; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cheval, Sorin

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high temperature have a large impact on environment and human activities, especially in high elevation areas particularly sensitive to the recent climate warming. The climate of the Romanian Carpathians became warmer particularly in winter, spring and summer, exibiting a significant increasing frequency of warm extremes. The paper investigates the seasonal changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves in relation to the shifts in the daily distribution of maximum temperatures over a 50-year period of meteorological observations (1961-2010). The paper uses the heat wave definition recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and exploits the gridded daily dataset of maximum temperature at 0.1° resolution (~10 km) developed in the framework of the CarpatClim project (www.carpatclim.eu). The seasonal changes in heat waves behavior were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test. The results suggest an increase in heat wave frequency and a lengthening of intervals affected by warm temperature extremes all over the study region, which are explained by the shifts in the upper (extreme) tail of the daily maximum temperature distribution in most seasons. The trends are consistent across the region and are well correlated to the positive phases of the East Atlantic Oscillation. Our results are in good agreement with the previous temperature-related studies concerning the Carpathian region. This study was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM, financed by UEFISCDI, code PN-II 151/2014.

  9. 78 FR 17625 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; 2006 Consolidated Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Fishery...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-22

    ... logistics for two additional public hearings, and an extension of the comment period from April 23, 2013, to... for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT). The authority to issue regulations under the Magnuson...

  10. Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ólafsdóttir, Guðbjörg Ásta; Westfall, Kristen M; Edvardsson, Ragnar; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

    2014-02-22

    Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500-1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400-1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change.

  11. Northern hemisphere glaciation during the globally warm early Late Pliocene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stijn De Schepper

    Full Text Available The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ∼3.0 million years ago is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ∼3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Here we propose a conceptual model for the glaciation and deglaciation of MIS M2 based on geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect. Our records show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the continental ice sheets during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Sea level drop during this glaciation halted the inflow of Pacific water to the Atlantic via the Central American Seaway, allowing the build-up of a Caribbean Warm Pool. Once this warm pool was large enough, the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current system was reinvigorated, leading to significant northward heat transport that terminated the glaciation. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the North Atlantic Current was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.

  12. Extreme conditions over Europe and North America: role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom

    2016-04-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is the result and possibly the source of marked modulations of the climate over many areas of the globe. For instance, the relatively warm and dry climate of North America throughout the 30-yr interval of 1931-60, during which the Dust Bowl and the 1950's drought occurred, has been linked to the concomitant warm phase of the AMV. During this period relative warm and wet conditions prevailed over Europe. After 1960, the Atlantic began to cool, and for almost three decades the North American climate turned wetter and cooler whereas Europe experienced cooler and dryer conditions. However, the shortness of the historical observations compared to the AMV period suggested by longer proxy (~60-80yr) does not allow to firmly conclude on the causal effect of the AMV. We use a model approach to isolate the causal role of the AMV on the occurrence of extreme events over Europe and North America. We present experiments based on two GFDL global climate models, a low resolution version, CM2.1 and a higher resolution model for the atmospheric component, FLOR. In both model experiments sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic sector are restored to the observed AMV pattern, while the other basins are left fully coupled. In order to explore and robustly isolate the AMV impacts on extreme events, we use large ensemble simulations (100 members for CM2.1 and 50 for FLOR) that we run for 20 years. We find that a positive phase of the AMV increases the frequency of occurrence of drought over North America and of extremely cold/warm conditions over Northern/Central Europe during winter/summer. Interestingly, we find that the AMV impacts on these extreme conditions are modulated by the Pacific response to the AMV itself. Members that develop a weak Pacific response show more extreme events over Europe whereas those that develop a strong Pacific response show more extreme events over North America.

  13. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  14. South Atlantic Shrimp System

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The SEFSC, in cooperation with the South Atlantic states, collects South Atlantic shrimp data from dealers and fishermen. These data are collected to provide catch,...

  15. Progressive reduction in NE Atlantic intermediate water ventilation prior to Heinrich events: Response to NW European ice sheet instabilities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, V. L.; Hall, I. R.; Zahn, R.; Scourse, J. D.

    2007-01-01

    We present high-resolution benthic δ13C records from intermediate water depth core site MD01-2461 (1153 m water depth), from the Porcupine Seabight, NE Atlantic, spanning 43 to 8 kyr B.P. At an average proxy time step of 160 ± 56 years this core provides information on the linkage between records from the Portuguese Margin and high-latitude North Atlantic basin, allowing additional insights into North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability during millennial-scale climatic events of the last glacial. Together, these records document both discrete and progressive reductions in Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW) formation preceding Heinrich (H) events 1, 2, and 4, recorded through the apparent interchange of glacial northern and southern-sourced intermediate water signatures along the European Margin. Close coupling of NW European ice sheet (NWEIS) instability and GNAIW formation is observed through transient advances of SCW along the European margin concurrent with pulses of ice-rafted debris and meltwater release into the NE Atlantic between 27 and 16 kyr B.P., when the NWEIS was at maximum extent and proximal to Last Glacial Maximum convection zones in the open North Atlantic. It is such NWEIS instability and meltwater forcing that may have triggered reduced North Atlantic THC prior to collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet at H1 and H2. Precursory reduction in GNAIW formation prior to H4 may also be inferred. However, limited NWEIS ice volume prior to H4 and convection occurring in the Norwegian-Greenland Sea require that if a meltwater trigger is invoked, as appears to be the case at H1 and H2, the source of meltwater prior to H4 is elsewhere, likely higher-latitude ice sheets. Clarification of the sequencing and likely mechanisms of precursory decrease of the North Atlantic THC support theories of H event initiation relating to ice shelf growth during cold periods associated with reduced North Atlantic THC and subsequent ablation

  16. Uniform climate development between the subtropical and subpolar Northeast Atlantic across marine isotope stage 11

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Helmke

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Proxy records from a core site off Northwest Africa were generated and compared with data from the subpolar Northeast Atlantic to unravel some main climatic features of interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS 11 (423–362 ka. The records point to an almost 25 kyr lasting full interglacial period during stage 11 that was preceded by a considerably long glacial-interglacial transition (Termination V. Off NW Africa, a strong reduction of terrestrially derived iron input is noted after 420 ka suggesting a pronounced increase in continental humidity and vegetation cover over Northwest Africa. In analogy to the Holocene climate of the region, this early wet phase of MIS 11 was likely associated with enhanced influence of the West African monsoon system on the Saharan-Sahel region which led to both a reduction in trade wind intensity off NW Africa and the formation of sapropel S11 in the Mediterranean Sea. A detailed comparison with data from the subpolar North Atlantic indicates a remarkable coherent timing for the main environmental changes in both regions giving evidence for strong interglacial climate connectivity between the low and high latitude North Atlantic. Although our records of MIS 11 compare well with the Holocene in terms of some major climate characteristics there are distinct differences in the temporal evolution of each peak warm interval. This suggests that care should be taken when using MIS 11 as analogue to forecast future interglacial conditions.

  17. Response of the South Atlantic circulation to an abrupt collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laurian, Audine [University of Hawai' i at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, Honolulu, HI (United States); Drijfhout, Sybren S. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2011-08-15

    The South Atlantic response to a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is investigated in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. A reduced Agulhas leakage (about 3.1 Sv; 1 Sv = 10{sup 6} m{sup 3} s{sup -1}) is found to be associated with a weaker Southern Hemisphere (SH) supergyre and Indonesian throughflow. These changes are due to reduced wind stress curl over the SH supergyre, associated with a weaker Hadley circulation and a weaker SH subtropical jet. The northward cross-equatorial transport of thermocline and intermediate waters is much more strongly reduced than Agulhas leakage in relation with an AMOC collapse. A cross-equatorial gyre develops due to an anomalous wind stress curl over the tropics that results from the anomalous sea surface temperature gradient associated with reduced ocean heat transport. This cross-equatorial gyre completely blocks the transport of thermocline waters from the South to the North Atlantic. The waters originating from Agulhas leakage flow somewhat deeper and most of it recirculates in the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, leading to a gyre intensification. This intensification is consistent with the anomalous surface cooling over the South Atlantic. Most changes in South Atlantic circulation due to global warming, featuring a reduced AMOC, are qualitatively similar to the response to an AMOC collapse, but smaller in amplitude. However, the increased northward cross-equatorial transport of intermediate water relative to thermocline water is a strong fingerprint of an AMOC collapse. (orig.)

  18. Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations in Morocco during the last 1200 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ait Brahim, Y.; Sifeddine, A.; Cheng, H.; Khodri, M.; Cruz, F. W., Sr.; Pérez-Zanón, N.; SHA, L.; Wassenburg, J. A.; Bouchaou, L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate projections predict a substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco, while already under severe water stress. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. However, the climate processes are still poorly understood in North Africa, which makes the investigation of hydroclimate variations during the last millennium in Morocco highly requested. Here, we present the first well-dated high resolution ( 1.7 years) stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) speleothem record from southwestern Morocco, covering the last 1200 years. Our record reveals substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords, with prevailing dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and a trend towards dry conditions during the current warm period. These coherent regional climate signals suggest common climate controls. Statistical analyses indicate that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last millennium. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively.

  19. Atlantic surfclam connectivity within the Middle Atlantic Bight: Mechanisms underlying variation in larval transport and settlement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinzhong; Munroe, Daphne; Haidvogel, Dale; Powell, Eric N.

    2016-05-01

    Larval transport and settlement have been shown in various studies to be essential in determining population abundance and connectivity for benthic invertebrates. This transport is influenced by both the physical environment and biological behavior. The Atlantic surfclam, Spisula solidissima, is a commercially important benthic invertebrate fishery species along the U.S northeastern coast. In this study, a physical circulation model is coupled to a surfclam larval model to investigate the dynamics of larval transport and settlement within the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) shelf in 2006. The main physical mechanisms causing variability in larval transport and settlement are also examined. Model results show that surfclam larvae released from July to early October experience relatively larger settlement rates, due to higher average temperatures experienced by larvae. Larval along-shore transport exhibits a mean down-coast pattern following the coastal current from the northeast to the southwest, with most high-frequency (period of 2-10 days) variations caused by fluctuations in the along-shore surface wind stress, and with seasonal variations speculated to be driven mainly by changes in the across-shelf density gradient. Larval across-shelf movement is highly correlated with the along-shore surface wind stress mediated by coastal upwelling and downwelling episodes, but the correlation is further dependent on the vertical distribution of the larvae, particularly their position relative to the thermocline. Most surfclam larvae released from the Middle Atlantic shelf stay below the thermocline and experience a net onshore transport during the summer-stratified season when upwelling-favorable wind forcing dominates. A proposed critical value of water temperature at the thermocline successfully regulates the observed patterns of vertical distribution of surfclam larvae and their across-shelf movement off the New Jersey and South Virginia shelves; that is, when the water

  20. 过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响研究%Highlights of the Research Project on the Forcing and Impacts of the Warm Periods in the Past 2000 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    葛全胜; 郑景云; 方修琦; 杨保; 刘健

    2015-01-01

    本文简要介绍了“过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响研究”项目取得的主要进展:(1)新建了40余条高分辨率气候序列,显著提高了过去2000年中国气候变化序列的覆盖度和时间分辨率;(2)揭示了暖期气候的空间协同特征及历史典型暖期与20世纪暖期气候格局的差异;(3)诊断了自然驱动的历史暖期与温室气体驱动的20世纪暖期形成机制的差异;(4)量化分析了过去2000年气候变化对中国社会经济的影响与响应过程,辨识了冷、暖期对中国社会经济影响的主要差异。上述研究成果增进了对年代至百年尺度气候变化特征与机制的认识,对我国适应未来气候变化具有参考价值。%Progresses in the research project of a study on the forcing and impacts of the warm periods in the past 2000 years, which funded from China Global Change Research Program, are summarized with highlights as fellows. (1) More than 40 new high-resolution climate series have been reconstructed, which improves the spa-tial coverage and the time resolution of the climate se-ries in the past 2000 years of China. (2) The spatial synergistic characteristics of warm periods and the differences between the spatial patterns of the Medieval Warm Period and the current warm period have been re-vealed. (3) The difference between the “ thermostat mechanism” for the Medieval Warming Period forced by increased solar radiation and the “stabilization mecha-nism” for the warming in the 20th century forced by in-creased greenhouse gases has been identified. (4) The climate change impact on social-economic system during Chinese history and the adaptation, particularly on the differences between the impacts of warm periods and the cold periods were identified quantitatively. These pro-gresses could not only improve the understanding on the characteristics and mechanisms of decadal to centennial climate change, but also provide

  1. Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Anthony J; Schoeman, David S

    2004-09-10

    It is now widely accepted that global warming is occurring, yet its effects on the world's largest ecosystem, the marine pelagic realm, are largely unknown. We show that sea surface warming in the Northeast Atlantic is accompanied by increasing phytoplankton abundance in cooler regions and decreasing phytoplankton abundance in warmer regions. This impact propagates up the food web (bottom-up control) through copepod herbivores to zooplankton carnivores because of tight trophic coupling. Future warming is therefore likely to alter the spatial distribution of primary and secondary pelagic production, affecting ecosystem services and placing additional stress on already-depleted fish and mammal populations.

  2. A modelling study of the influence of anomalous wind forcing over the Barents Sea on the Atlantic water flow to the Arctic Ocean in the period 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciniak, Jakub; Schlichtholz, Pawel; Maslowski, Wieslaw

    2016-04-01

    Arctic climate system is influenced by oceanic heat transport with the Atlantic water (AW) streaming towards the Arctic Ocean in two branches, through the deep Fram Strait and the shallow Barents Sea. In Fram Strait, the AW submerges below the Polar surface water and then flows cyclonically along the margin of the Arctic Ocean as a subsurface water mass in the Arctic Slope Current. In contrast to the Fram Strait branch, which is the major source of heat for the Arctic Ocean, most of the heat influx to the Barents Sea through the Barents Sea opening (BSO) is passed to the atmosphere. Only cold remnants of AW outflow to the Arctic Ocean through the northeastern gate of the Barents Sea. Some AW entering the Barents Sea recirculates westward, contributing to an outflow from the Barents Sea through the BSO along the shelf slope south of Bear Island, in the Bear Island Slope Current. Even though the two-branched AW flow toward the Arctic Ocean has been known for more than a century, little is known about co-variability of heat fluxes in the two branches, its mechanisms and climatic implications. Recent studies indicate that the Bear Island Slope Current may play a role in this co-variability. Here, co-variability of the flow through the BSO and Fram Strait is investigated using a pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean hindcast model run for the period 1979-2004 and forced with daily atmospheric data from the ECMWF. Significant wintertime co-variability between the volume transport in the Bear Island and Arctic slope currents and its link to wind forcing over the Barents Sea is confirmed. It is found that the volume transports in these currents are, however, not correlated in the annual mean and that the wintertime co-variability of these currents has no immediate effect on either the net heat flux through the BSO or the net heat flux divergence in the Barents Sea. It is shown that the main climatic effect of wind forcing over the northern Barents Sea shelf is to induce temperature

  3. On Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Brad Franklin

    2010-01-01

    @@ There is a huge argument going on in the world these days and it is centered on the notion that our planet is warming up. It's celled global warming and it postulates1 that our use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil and our destruction of large areas of forest across the world have combined to create so-celled greenhouse gases.

  4. Keeping Warm Without Coal

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Heat-pump technology offers a clean heating alternative to coal With no air conditioning or indoor heating, families in southeast Beijing’s Fangzhuang neighbor-hood still enjoy refreshing warm air all year round. The secret is in the pump technology. Heat pumps cool the homes in summer and warm them in winter just like a central air-conditioning system.

  5. Origin and fate of the North Atlantic Current at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breckenfelder, Tilia; Myers, Paul G.; Rhein, Monika; Pennelly, Clark; Hu, Xianmin

    2016-04-01

    Warm, salty tropical and subtropical water is brought into the subpolar gyre by the North Atlantic Current (NAC). The NAC is the northward extension of the Gulf Stream and is part of the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The warm, salty water is further transported into the Nordic Seas via the Rockall Trough, into the Denmark Strait and, finally into the Labrador Sea, where it plays an important role in the deep water formation process. On its way into the Labrador Sea the water mass increases its density by dissipating heat to the atmosphere and thereby influencing the local climate. To further understand the processes behind warm water transport towards higher latitudes, we start our investigation at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR). Here, the NAC flows from the western to eastern basin of the North Atlantic and crosses the MAR via the Charlie-Gibbs, Faraday and Maxwell Fracture Zones. The role of the subpolar and subtropical gyre on the different water masses, and their properties, originating or reaching the MAR is studied using the lagrangian tool ARIANE with the 3D velocity fields taken from a 1/12° AGRIF nest set in a regional NEMO configuration. One result of this investigation is that the majority of particles released at the MAR, distributed over the entire water column, recirculate. Most of the remaining particles make their way into the East Greenland Current or turn in the eastern basin towards the south. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated by studying the pathways of the NAC and their properties during different NAO phases.

  6. Sudden intrusion of corrosive bottom water into the South Atlantic during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meissner, K. J.; Alexander, K.; Bralower, T. J.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, ˜55 million years before present, was a period of rapid warming marked by a negative carbon isotope excursion and widespread dissolution of seafloor carbonate. These changes have been attributed to a massive release of carbon into the exogenic carbon cycle, and thus, the event provides an analog for future climate and environmental changes given the current anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Previous attempts to constrain the amount of carbon released have produced widely diverging results, between 2000 and 10,000 gigatons carbon (GtC). Sediment records indicate that acidification of deep waters was generally more extensive and severe in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions, with more modest changes in the Southern and Pacific Oceans. Here we compare simulations integrated with the UVic Earth System Climate Model with reconstructions of temperature and dissolution to present a mechanism that might explain the observed spatial differences and to constrain the total mass of carbon released. Due to the late Paleocene topography, highly corrosive waters accumulate in the deep North Atlantic before the PETM in our simulations. Several thousand years into the event, deep ocean warming destabilizes the North Atlantic water column and triggers deep water formation. This causes the corrosive bottom water to spill over an equatorial sill into the South Atlantic and through the Southern and Pacific Oceans, progressively gaining alkalinity. The simulated pattern of sediment dissolution along the path taken by this corrosive water is consistent with most dissolution estimates made from CaCO3 measurements in the Paleocene-Eocene sediment record. We find two scenarios that agree best with proxy data: a carbon release of 7000 GtC in combination with pre-event atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 840 ppm and a carbon release of 7000-10,000 GtC with pre-event CO2 concentrations of 1680 ppm.

  7. Mechanisms of meridional transport processes in the tropical Atlantic; Mechanismen meridionaler Transportprozesse im tropischen Atlantik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kroeger, J.

    2001-07-01

    Meridional transport processes of water masses and tracers in the subtropical and tropical Atlantic are investigated using a regional eddy resolving model of the wind driven and thermohaline circulation. Analytical emphasis is on float simulations in the model which, complementary to Eulerian means, represent the Lagrangian view and give further insight into the spreading and pathways of characteristic water masses in this area. In the tropics and subtropics shallow 3-dimensional circulation cells are superimposed on the northward warm water transfer within the deep reaching thermohaline overturning cell (MOC) as part of the global ''Conveyor Belt''. Under present-day climate conditions the model shows that the equatorial thermocline is exclusively ventilated by subsurface flow within the tropical-subtropical cell (STC) of the South Atlantic. Only with a prescribed ''Conveyor-off''-Mode the STC of the North Atlantic contributes to this ventilation process with equal amounts. Throughout the year the interhemispheric transport of surface and central water masses of South Atlantic origin into the Caribbean Sea is dominated by zonal detours to the east as a consequence of the interplay of several retroflection events occuring in the North Atlantic. The eulerian mean flow field in the deep layer postulates the interhemispheric mass transport into the South Atlantic to be confined entirely to the western boundary, whereas Lagrangian means indicate intermittent eastward excursions along the equator, related to seasonally alternating zonal currents due to long Rossby waves. It was suggested that the observed characteristic eastward maximum of tracer concentrations along the equator is a consequence of rectifying effects of single or interacting equatorial waves. The model does not validate this hypothesis. The response to transport anomalies of subpolar origin and long periodicity is subject to different time-scales in both

  8. Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

    2008-11-01

    Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends

  9. An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915–1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Lin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model – Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2. The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1. The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N, then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO phase during 1905–1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50–70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice–albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid–high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

  10. Underestimation of mid-Holocene Arctic warming in PMIP simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Due to the orbital forcing, Arctic is warmer during mid-Holocene (~ 6 kyr BP) in summer because the region received more insolation and also warmer in winter because of strong feedbacks, leads to an annual mean temperature warming. Existing proxy reconstructions show that the Arctic can be two degrees warmer than pre-industrial. However, not all the climate models can capture the warming, and the amplitude is about 0.5 degree less than that seen from proxy data. One possible reason is that these simulations did not take into account a fact of 'Green Sahara', where the large area of Sahara region is covered by vegetation instead of desert as it is today. By using a fully coupled climate model EC-Earth with about 100 km resolution, we have run a series of sensitivity experiments by changing the surface type, as well as accompanied change in dust emission over the northern Sahara. The results show that a green sahara not only results in local climate response such as the northward extension and strengthening of African monsoon, but also affect the large scale circulation and corresponding meridional heat transport. The combination of green sahara and reduced dust entails a general strengthening of the mid-latitude Westerlies, results in a change to more positive North Atlantic Oscillation-like conditions, and more heat transport from lower latitudes to high latitudes both in atmosphere and ocean, eventually leads to a shift towards warmer conditions over the North Atlantic and Arctic regions. This mechanism would explain the sign of rapid hydro-climatic perturbations recorded in several reconstructions from high northern latitudes after the termination of the African Humid Period around 5.5 - 5.0 kyr BP, suggesting that these regions are sensitive to changes in Saharan land cover during the present interglacial. This is central in the debate surrounding Arctic climate amplification and future projections for subtropical precipitation changes and related surface type

  11. Linkages of Remote Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Mediated by the African Monsoon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taraphdar, Sourav; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Hagos, Samson M.

    2015-01-28

    Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in North Atlantic and Mediterranean (NAMED) can influence tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the tropical East Atlantic by modulating summer convection over western Africa. Analysis of 30 years of observations show that the NAMED SST is linked to a strengthening of the Saharan heat low and enhancement of moisture and moist static energy in the lower atmosphere over West Africa, which favors a northward displacement of the monsoonal front. These processes also lead to a northward shift of the African easterly jet that introduces an anomalous positive vorticity from western Africa to the main development region (50W–20E; 10N–20N) of Atlantic TC. By modulating multiple processes associated with the African monsoon, this study demonstrates that warm NAMED SST explains 8% of interannual variability of Atlantic TC frequency. Thus NAME SST may provide useful predictability for Atlantic TC activity on seasonal-to-interannual time scale.

  12. Biodiversity patterns of the marine benthic fauna on the Atlantic coast of tropical Africa in relation to hydroclimatic conditions and paleogeographic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lœuff, Pierre Le; von Cosel, Rudo

    1998-06-01

    Five different hydroclimatic regions are recognized in the tropical eastern Atlantic: the northern alternance region (Cape Blanc - Cape Verga), the atypical tropical region (Cape Palmas - border Benin/Nigeria), the southern alternance region (Cape Lopez - Cape Frio), all with periodical upwelling of colder water, and two intercalated typical tropical regions with warm water and reduced salinity. The faunal richness in the regions with upwelling is higher than in the typical tropical regions because many benthic species avoid warm and reduced salinity water. Faunistic exchange and affinity are greater between the upwelling zones and the bordering temperate zones. The cold regions are also more similar in faunal composition. Benthic communities in both tropical and temperate eastern Atlantic are not fundamentally different. Species diversity of benthic invertebrates in tropical West Africa is about the same order of magnitude as in Europe and the Mediterranean. Hydroclimatic conditions (upwelling, salinity reduction and internal waves with drastic temperature changes) and absence of coral reef formations do not favour the establishment and thriving of a warm stenohaline and stenotherm fauna in West Africa. Paleozoogeographic events, such as the formation of a large Euro-West African tropical province during the Miocene after the breakup of the Tethys, repeated climate deteriorations during Pliocene and Pleistocene with reductions of the tropical zone, sea level changes and large-scale extinction of warm-tropical species, are also factors responsible for the current low biodiversity in the tropical eastern Atlantic. Some species survived in two major relict pockets in Senegal and southern Angola with particular ecological conditions.

  13. Overwinter Transport of Subsurface Warm Water around the Arctic Chukchi Borderland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, E.; Onodera, J.; Nishino, S.; Kikuchi, T.

    2016-02-01

    Ocean heat transport is a possible important factor for recent sea ice decline, especially in the western Arctic Ocean. It has been indicated that vertical hydrographic profiles in the Canada Basin were characterized by three temperature maxima. The near-surface temperature maximum was the shallowest one arising from summer solar heat absorption and subsequent autumn Ekman downwelling. The subsurface temperature maximum reflected intrusion of Pacific summer water. The deepest maximum was located in the Atlantic layer. Substantial parts of upper ocean heat would eventually affect sea ice freezing/melting. However, spatial and temporal variabilities of these warm layers still remain uncertainties. JAMSTEC field campaign deployed the bottom-tethered year-long mooring with a sediment trap in the Chukchi Abyssal Plain (Station CAP: 75.21°N, 172.55°W, 447 m) of the Chukchi Borderland. The temperature time series at 95 m of Station CAP showed a rapid warming event (from -1.6 to -0.8°C) for December 2012 to March 2013. During this period, high sea level pressure (i.e., anti-cyclones) covering the Canadian Basin induced strong easterly wind near the mooring station, where the sinking flux of lithogenic materials remarkably increased at the sediment trap depth (270 m). These situations suggest that lateral advection of shelf-origin warm water is a key factor for the subsurface warming in the CAP region. To address overwinter transport of subsurface warm water, a pan-Arctic sea ice-ocean modeling was also performed. The horizontal grid size was approximately 5 km to resolve mesoscale eddies and narrow jets. In the interannual experiments, the strong easterly wind produced a westward shelf-break jet along the northern edge of Chukchi shelf in winter of 2012-2013. Warm eddies generated north of the Barrow Canyon were still located east of the Northwind Ridge. Therefore, the subsurface warming event observed at Station CAP would have been attributed to shelf-break jet streams

  14. Holocene Oscillations in the Temperature and Salinity of the Surface Subpolar North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornalley, D. J.; Elderfield, H.; McCave, N.

    2008-12-01

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transports warm and salty surface waters to high latitudes (via the North Atlantic Current, NAC), where they cool, sink, and return southwards at depth. Through its attendant meridional heat transport, the AMOC helps maintain a warm NW European climate, and acts as a control on global climate. Yet our ability to test hypotheses about AMOC behavior during periods of climate change is limited by the short time period for which instrumental data is available. To address this problem, we reconstruct the temperature and salinity of the NAC using paired δ18O-Mg/Ca measurements of foraminifera from ocean sediment core RAPiD-12-1K, located on the South Iceland Rise, throughout the Holocene (0-11.7 ka). The records are interpreted by examining the modern controls on the hydrography of the region. The paleo data then in turn provides support for recent modeling studies of AMOC behavior, thus providing an integrated view of ocean dynamics. G. bulloides data reveal millennial timescale salinity variations (~0.5 psu) superimposed upon a trend of increasing near-surface water salinity from ~9 ka to the present. The shorter timescale variability is likely due to southward advances of the subpolar front, analogous to the changes observed during the NAO minimum during the 1960s. The long term trend in near surface salinity may be caused by shifts in the ITCZ and the input of deglacial meltwater. G. inflata data show that below the seasonal thermocline the NAC has undergone millennial variations in temperature and salinity (~3.5°C and ~1.5 psu). These are controlled by subpolar gyre dynamics, consistent with modern studies of inter-annual to decadal timescale behavior. The inflow becomes more saline during enhanced freshwater flux to the subpolar North Atlantic, suggesting a negative feedback is in operation on millennial timescales. The AMOC may therefore be more stable than previously expected during future global warming

  15. Spatial and temporal changes in the Barents Sea pelagic compartment during the recent warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksen, Elena; Skjoldal, Hein Rune; Gjøsæter, Harald; Primicerio, Raul

    2017-02-01

    The Barents Sea has experienced substantial warming over the last few decades with expansion of relatively warm Atlantic water and reduction in sea ice. Based on a review of relevant literature and additional analyses, we report changes in the pelagic compartment associated with this warming using data from autumn surveys (acoustic capelin, 0-group fish, and ecosystem surveys). We estimated biomass for 25 components of the pelagic community, including macroplankton, 0-group fish, and juvenile and adult pelagic fish, were examined for spatial and temporal variation over the period 1993-2013. The estimated total biomass of the investigated pelagic compartment, not including mesozooplankton, ranged between about 6 and 30 million tonnes wet weight with an average of 17 million tonnes over the 21-years period. Krill was the dominant biomass component (63%), whereas pelagic fish (capelin, polar cod and herring) made up 26% and 0-group fish 11% of the biomass on average. The spatial distribution of biomass showed a broad-scale pattern reflecting differences in distribution of the main pelagic fishes (capelin in the north, polar cod in the east, and herring in the south) and transport of krill and 0-group fish with the Atlantic water flowing into the southern Barents Sea. Dividing the Barents Sea into six regions, the highest average biomass values were found in the Southwestern and South-Central subareas (about 4 million tonnes in each), with krill as the main component. Biomass was also high in the North-Central subarea (about 3 million tonnes) where capelin was the major contributor. The total estimated biomass of the pelagic compartment remained relatively stable during each of two main periods (before and after 2004), but increased by a factor of two from around 11 million tonnes in the first to around 23 million tonnes in the last period. The pronounced increase reflected the warming between the relatively cold 1990s and the warmer 2000s and was driven mainly by an

  16. Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on extreme climate conditions over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Delworth, Thomas; Msadek, Rym; Castruccio, Frederic; Yeager, Stephen; Danabasoglu, Gokhan

    2017-04-01

    The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is associated with marked modulations of climate anomalies observed over many areas of the globe like droughts, decline in sea ice or changes in the atmospheric circulation. However, the shortness of the historical observations compared to the AMV period ( 60-80yr) makes it difficult to show that the AMV is a direct driver of these variations. To isolate the AMV climate response, we use a suite of global coupled models from GFDL and NCAR, in which the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are restored to the observed AMV pattern, while the other ocean basins are left fully coupled. In order to explore and robustly isolate the AMV impacts on extreme events, we use large ensemble simulations (between 30 and 100 members depending on the model) that are integrated for 10 years. We investigate the importance of model resolution by analyzing GFDL models that vary in their atmospheric resolution and we assess the robustness of the results by comparing them to similar experiments performed with the NCAR coupled model. Further, we investigate the influence of model surface temperature biases on the simulated AMV teleconnections using a flux-adjusted experiment based on a model configuration that corrects for momentum, enthalpy and freshwater fluxes. We focus in this presentation on the impact of the AMV on the occurrence of the North American heat waves. We find that the AMV modulates by about 30% the occurrence of heat waves over North Mexico and the South-West of USA, with more heat waves during a warm phase of the AMV. The main reason for such an increase is that, during a warm AMV phase, the anomalously warm sea surface temperature leads to an increase of the atmospheric convection over the tropical Atlantic, as well as to a an anomalous downward motion over North America. This atmospheric response to AMV inhibits the precipitation over there and drives a deficit of soil moisture. In the summer, the latent heat of

  17. Experimental Warming Decreases the Average Size and Nucleic Acid Content of Marine Bacterial Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara M; Arandia-Gorostidi, Nestor; Alonso-Sáez, Laura; Morán, Xosé Anxelu G

    2016-01-01

    Organism size reduction with increasing temperature has been suggested as a universal response to global warming. Since genome size is usually correlated to cell size, reduction of genome size in unicells could be a parallel outcome of warming at ecological and evolutionary time scales. In this study, the short-term response of cell size and nucleic acid content of coastal marine prokaryotic communities to temperature was studied over a full annual cycle at a NE Atlantic temperate site. We used flow cytometry and experimental warming incubations, spanning a 6°C range, to analyze the hypothesized reduction with temperature in the size of the widespread flow cytometric bacterial groups of high and low nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA bacteria, respectively). Our results showed decreases in size in response to experimental warming, which were more marked in 0.8 μm pre-filtered treatment rather than in the whole community treatment, thus excluding the role of protistan grazers in our findings. Interestingly, a significant effect of temperature on reducing the average nucleic acid content (NAC) of prokaryotic cells in the communities was also observed. Cell size and nucleic acid decrease with temperature were correlated, showing a common mean decrease of 0.4% per °C. The usually larger HNA bacteria consistently showed a greater reduction in cell and NAC compared with their LNA counterparts, especially during the spring phytoplankton bloom period associated to maximum bacterial growth rates in response to nutrient availability. Our results show that the already smallest planktonic microbes, yet with key roles in global biogeochemical cycling, are likely undergoing important structural shrinkage in response to rising temperatures.

  18. Experimental warming decreases the average size and nucleic acid content of marine bacterial communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara Megan Huete-Stauffer

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Organism size reduction with increasing temperature has been suggested as a universal response to global warming. Since genome size is usually correlated to cell size, reduction of genome size in unicells could be a parallel outcome of warming at ecological and evolutionary time scales. In this study, the short-term response of cell size and nucleic acid content of coastal marine prokaryotic communities to temperature was studied over a full annual cycle at a NE Atlantic temperate site. We used flow cytometry and experimental warming incubations, spanning a 6ºC range, to analyze the hypothesized reduction with temperature in the size of the widespread flow cytometric bacterial groups of high and low nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA bacteria, respectively. Our results showed decreases in size in response to experimental warming, which were more marked in 0.8 µm pre-filtered treatment rather than in the whole community treatment, thus excluding the role of protistan grazers in our findings. Interestingly, a significant effect of temperature on reducing the average nucleic acid content of prokaryotic cells in the communities was also observed. Cell size and nucleic acid decrease with temperature were correlated, showing a common mean decrease of 0.4% per ºC. The usually larger HNA bacteria consistently showed a greater reduction in cell and nucleic acid content compared with their LNA counterparts, especially during the spring phytoplankton bloom period associated to maximum bacterial growth rates in response to nutrient availability. Our results show that the already smallest planktonic microbes, yet with key roles in global biogeochemical cycling, are likely undergoing important structural shrinkage in response to rising temperatures.

  19. Experimental Warming Decreases the Average Size and Nucleic Acid Content of Marine Bacterial Communities

    KAUST Repository

    Huete-Stauffer, Tamara M.

    2016-05-23

    Organism size reduction with increasing temperature has been suggested as a universal response to global warming. Since genome size is usually correlated to cell size, reduction of genome size in unicells could be a parallel outcome of warming at ecological and evolutionary time scales. In this study, the short-term response of cell size and nucleic acid content of coastal marine prokaryotic communities to temperature was studied over a full annual cycle at a NE Atlantic temperate site. We used flow cytometry and experimental warming incubations, spanning a 6°C range, to analyze the hypothesized reduction with temperature in the size of the widespread flow cytometric bacterial groups of high and low nucleic acid content (HNA and LNA bacteria, respectively). Our results showed decreases in size in response to experimental warming, which were more marked in 0.8 μm pre-filtered treatment rather than in the whole community treatment, thus excluding the role of protistan grazers in our findings. Interestingly, a significant effect of temperature on reducing the average nucleic acid content (NAC) of prokaryotic cells in the communities was also observed. Cell size and nucleic acid decrease with temperature were correlated, showing a common mean decrease of 0.4% per °C. The usually larger HNA bacteria consistently showed a greater reduction in cell and NAC compared with their LNA counterparts, especially during the spring phytoplankton bloom period associated to maximum bacterial growth rates in response to nutrient availability. Our results show that the already smallest planktonic microbes, yet with key roles in global biogeochemical cycling, are likely undergoing important structural shrinkage in response to rising temperatures.

  20. Warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Rakhi

    2015-06-01

    Warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia (AIHA) is defined as the destruction of circulating red blood cells (RBCs) in the setting of anti-RBC autoantibodies that optimally react at 37°C. The pathophysiology of disease involves phagocytosis of autoantibody-coated RBCs in the spleen and complement-mediated hemolysis. Thus far, treatment is aimed at decreasing autoantibody production with immunosuppression or reducing phagocytosis of affected cells in the spleen. The role of complement inhibitors in warm AIHA has not been explored. This article addresses the diagnosis, etiology, and treatment of warm AIHA and highlights the role of complement in disease pathology.

  1. Debating about the climate warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Shaowu; LUO Yong; ZHAO Zongci; DONG Wenje; YANG Bao

    2006-01-01

    Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2) All ofthe temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3) The warming from 1975 to 2000 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.

  2. Tropospheric circulation during the early twentieth century Arctic warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegmann, Martin; Brönnimann, Stefan; Compo, Gilbert P.

    2016-06-01

    The early twentieth century Arctic warming (ETCAW) between 1920 and 1940 is an exceptional feature of climate variability in the last century. Its warming rate was only recently matched by recent warming in the region. Unlike recent warming largely attributable to anthropogenic radiative forcing, atmospheric warming during the ETCAW was strongest in the mid-troposphere and is believed to be triggered by an exceptional case of natural climate variability. Nevertheless, ultimate mechanisms and causes for the ETCAW are still under discussion. Here we use state of the art multi-member global circulation models, reanalysis and reconstruction datasets to investigate the internal atmospheric dynamics of the ETCAW. We investigate the role of boreal winter mid-tropospheric heat transport and circulation in providing the energy for the large scale warming. Analyzing sensible heat flux components and regional differences, climate models are not able to reproduce the heat flux evolution found in reanalysis and reconstruction datasets. These datasets show an increase of stationary eddy heat flux and a decrease of transient eddy heat flux during the ETCAW. Moreover, tropospheric circulation analysis reveals the important role of both the Atlantic and the Pacific sectors in the convergence of southerly air masses into the Arctic during the warming event. Subsequently, it is suggested that the internal dynamics of the atmosphere played a major role in the formation in the ETCAW.

  3. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  4. Global warming yearbook: 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arris, L. [ed.

    1999-02-01

    The report brings together a year`s worth of global warming stories - over 280 in all - in one convenient volume. It provides a one-stop report on the scientific, political and industrial implications of global warming. The report includes: detailed coverage of negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol; scientific findings on carbon sources and sinks, coral bleaching, Antarctic ice shelves, plankton, wildlife and tree growth; new developments on fuel economy, wind power, fuel cells, cogeneration, energy labelling and emissions trading.

  5. Physically driven Patchy O2 Changes in the North Atlantic Ocean simulated by the CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagklis, Filippos; Bracco, Annalisa; Ito, Takamitsu

    2017-04-01

    Centennial trends of oxygen in the upper 700 m of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated in Earth System Models (ESMs) included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The focus is on the subpolar region, which is key for the oceanic uptake of oxygen and carbon dioxide. Historical simulations covering the twentieth century and projections for the twenty-first century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are investigated. Although the representation of convective activity differs among the models in space and strength, and most models have a cold bias south of Greenland resulting from a poor representation of the pathway of the North Atlantic Current, the observed climatological distribution of dissolved O2 averaged for the recent past period (1975-2005) is generally well captured. By the end of the 21st century, all models predict an increase in depth-integrated temperature of 2-3oC, a consequent solubility decrease, a weakening of the vertical mass transport, a decrease in nutrient supply into the euphotic layer, and a spatially variable change in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU). Despite an overall tendency of the North Atlantic to lose oxygen by the end of twenty-first century, patchy regions of O2 increase are observed in a subset of models. This regional resistance to deoxygenation is explained by the weakening of the North Atlantic Current that causes a regional solubility increase exceeding the effect of increasing stratification. Our results imply that potential shifts in the North Atlantic Current play a crucial role in the future projection of the regional oxygen concentration in the warming climate.

  6. Discussion on common errors in analyzing sea level accelerations, solar trends and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, N.

    2013-05-01

    Herein I discuss common errors in applying regression models and wavelet filters used to analyze geophysical signals. I demonstrate that: (1) multidecadal natural oscillations (e.g. the quasi 60 yr Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)) need to be taken into account for properly quantifying anomalous background accelerations in tide gauge records such as in New York City; (2) uncertainties and multicollinearity among climate forcing functions also prevent a proper evaluation of the solar contribution to the 20th century global surface temperature warming using overloaded linear regression models during the 1900-2000 period alone; (3) when periodic wavelet filters, which require that a record is pre-processed with a reflection methodology, are improperly applied to decompose non-stationary solar and climatic time series, Gibbs boundary artifacts emerge yielding misleading physical interpretations. By correcting these errors and using optimized regression models that reduce multicollinearity artifacts, I found the following results: (1) the relative sea level in New York City is not accelerating in an alarming way, and may increase by about 350 ± 30 mm from 2000 to 2100 instead of the previously projected values varying from 1130 ± 480 mm to 1550 ± 400 mm estimated using the methods proposed, e.g., by Sallenger Jr. et al. (2012) and Boon (2012), respectively; (2) the solar activity increase during the 20th century contributed at least about 50% of the 0.8 °C global warming observed during the 20th century instead of only 7-10% (e.g.: IPCC, 2007; Benestad and Schmidt, 2009; Lean and Rind, 2009; Rohde et al., 2013). The first result was obtained by using a quadratic polynomial function plus a 60 yr harmonic to fit a required 110 yr-long sea level record. The second result was obtained by using solar, volcano, greenhouse gases and aerosol constructors to fit modern paleoclimatic temperature

  7. Polar Warming Drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDunn, T. L.; Bougher, S. W.; Mischna, M. A.; Murphy, J. R.

    2012-12-01

    Polar warming is a dynamically induced temperature enhancement over mid-to-high latitudes that results in a reversed (poleward) meridional temperature gradient. This phenomenon was recently characterized over the 40-90 km altitude region [1] based on nearly three martian years of Mars Climate Sounder observations [2, 3]. Here we investigate which forcing mechanisms affect the magnitude and distribution of the observed polar warming by conducting simulations with the Mars Weather Research and Forecasting General Circulation Model [4, 5]. We present simulations confirming the influence topography [6] and dust loading [e.g., 7] have upon polar warming. We then present simulations illustrating the modulating influence gravity wave momentum deposition exerts upon polar warming, consistent with previous modeling studies [e.g., 8]. The results of this investigation suggest the magnitude and distribution of polar warming in the martian middle atmosphere is modified by gravity wave activity and that the characteristics of the gravity waves that most significantly affect polar warming vary with season. References: [1] McDunn, et al., 2012 (JGR), [2]Kleinböhl, et al., 2009 (JGR), [3] Kleinböhl, et al., 2011 (JQSRT), [4] Richardson, et al., 2007 (JGR), [5] Mischna, et al., 2011 (Planet. Space Sci.), [6] Richardson and Wilson, 2002 (Nature), [7] Haberle, et al., 1982 (Icarus), [8] Barnes, 1990 (JGR).

  8. Warm World Ocean Thermohaline Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A.

    2014-12-01

    Modern day ocean circulation is dominated by thermal convection with cold waters subsiding in the Northern Atlantic, filling the ocean interior with cold and heavy water. However, ocean circulation diminished during the last glaciation and consequently the downwelling of the cold. Therefore interior ocean water temperatures must have been affected by other mechanisms which are negligible in the current state. We propose that the submergence of highly saline water from warm seas with high rates of evaporation (like the Red or Mediterranean Sea) was a major factor controlling ocean circulation during the last glaciation. Even today, waters in these poorly connected seas are the heaviest waters in the World ocean (1.029 g/cm3). The second mechanism affecting ocean temperature is the geothermal heat flux. With no heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean, geothermal heat flux through the ocean floor is capable of increasing ocean temperature by tens of degrees C over a 100 thousand year glacial cycle. To support these hypotheses we present an ocean box model that describes thermohaline circulation in the World Ocean. According to the model parameters, all water circulation is driven by the water density gradient. Boxes include high-latitude seas, high salinity seas, surface ocean, glaciers, and rift and lateral zones of the ocean interior. External heat sources are radiative forcing, affected by Milankovich cycles, and geothermal heat flux. Additionally this model accounts for the heat produced by organic rain decay. Taking all input parameters close to currently observed values, the model manages to recreate the glacial-interglacial cycles. During the glacial periods only haline circulation takes place, the ocean is strongly stratified, and the interior ocean accumulates heat while high-latitudes accumulate ice. 112,000 years after glaciation starts, water density on the ocean bottom becomes equal to the density of water in high-latitude seas, strong thermal

  9. Seaweed communities in retreat from ocean warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Russell, Bayden D; Thomsen, Mads S; Gurgel, C Frederico D; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Connell, Sean D

    2011-11-08

    In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20,000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9, 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia.

  10. Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Sung, Mi-Kyung; An, Soon-II; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2014-01-01

    The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

  11. A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Pablo; Lehner, Flavio; Swingedouw, Didier; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Raible, Christoph C.; Casado, Mathieu; Yiou, Pascal

    2015-07-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO. A recent bi-proxy NAO reconstruction spanning the past millennium suggested that long-lasting positive NAO conditions were established during medieval times, explaining the particularly warm conditions in Europe during this period; however, these conclusions are debated. Here, we present a yearly NAO reconstruction for the past millennium, based on an initial selection of 48 annually resolved proxy records distributed around the Atlantic Ocean and built through an ensemble of multivariate regressions. We validate the approach in six past-millennium climate simulations, and show that our reconstruction outperforms the bi-proxy index. The final reconstruction shows no persistent positive NAO during the medieval period, but suggests that positive phases were dominant during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. The reconstruction also reveals that a positive NAO emerges two years after strong volcanic eruptions, consistent with results obtained from models and satellite observations for the Mt Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines.

  12. Cutaneous warming promotes sleep onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymann, Roy J E M; Swaab, Dick F; Van Someren, Eus J W

    2005-06-01

    Sleep occurs in close relation to changes in body temperature. Both the monophasic sleep period in humans and the polyphasic sleep periods in rodents tend to be initiated when core body temperature is declining. This decline is mainly due to an increase in skin blood flow and consequently skin warming and heat loss. We have proposed that these intrinsically occurring changes in core and skin temperatures could modulate neuronal activity in sleep-regulating brain areas (Van Someren EJW, Chronobiol Int 17: 313-54, 2000). We here provide results compatible with this hypothesis. We obtained 144 sleep-onset latencies while directly manipulating core and skin temperatures within the comfortable range in eight healthy subjects under controlled conditions. The induction of a proximal skin temperature difference of only 0.78 +/- 0.03 degrees C (mean +/- SE) around a mean of 35.13 +/- 0.11 degrees C changed sleep-onset latency by 26%, i.e., by 3.09 minutes [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.91 to 4.28] around a mean of 11.85 min (CI, 9.74 to 14.41), with faster sleep onsets when the proximal skin was warmed. The reduction in sleep-onset latency occurred despite a small but significant decrease in subjective comfort during proximal skin warming. The induction of changes in core temperature (delta = 0.20 +/- 0.02 degrees C) and distal skin temperature (delta = 0.74 +/- 0.05 degrees C) were ineffective. Previous studies have demonstrated correlations between skin temperature and sleep-onset latency. Also, sleep disruption by ambient temperatures that activate thermoregulatory defense mechanisms has been shown. The present study is the first to experimentally demonstrate a causal contribution to sleep-onset latency of skin temperature manipulations within the normal nocturnal fluctuation range. Circadian and sleep-appetitive behavior-induced variations in skin temperature might act as an input signal to sleep-regulating systems.

  13. Could cirrus clouds have warmed early Mars?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kasting, James F.

    2017-01-01

    The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates that the climate at 3.8 Ga was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the mechanism for producing this warming continues to be debated. One hypothesis is that Mars could have been kept warm by global cirrus cloud decks in a CO2sbnd H2O atmosphere containing at least 0.25 bar of CO2 (Urata and Toon, 2013). Initial warming from some other process, e.g., impacts, would be required to make this model work. Those results were generated using the CAM 3-D global climate model. Here, we use a single-column radioactive-convective climate model to further investigate the cirrus cloud warming hypothesis. Our calculations indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have produced global mean surface temperatures above freezing, but only if cirrus cloud cover approaches ∼75 - 100% and if other cloud properties (e.g., height, optical depth, particle size) are chosen favorably. However, at more realistic cirrus cloud fractions, or if cloud parameters are not optimal, cirrus clouds do not provide the necessary warming, suggesting that other greenhouse mechanisms are needed.

  14. Book ReviewL Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Astriani

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Global Warming is part of Greenhaven’s Contemporary Issues Companion series published by, Thomson Gale on 2005. Each volume of the anthologyseries focuses on a topic of current interest, presenting informative and thought-provoking selection written from wide-variety viewpoints. It is an ideal launching point for research on a particular topic. Each anthology in the series is composed of readings taken from an extensive gamut of resources, including periodical, newspapers, books, governmentdocuments, the publications of private and public organization an internet website. Readers will find factual support suitable for use in reports, debate, speeches and research papers. In understanding Environmental Law, student must understand the environmental issues first. Global warming is the latest issue in Environmental Law field, it has been discuss for more than a decade. It is hard for law student, who don’t have any scientific background to understand this issue. That’s why this anthology series is perfect start for student to understanding Global Warming Issue. This book consist of three part, namely: Understanding Global Warming, The Consequences of Global warming and Solving the Global warming Problem. Each chapter contains 6-7 articles.

  15. Variability and Expansion of the Tropical Ocean Warm Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, C. D.; Webster, P. J.

    2007-12-01

    The tropical warm pool plays a determining role in the global climate since it acts as a sorce of thermodynamic forcing for the atmospheric general circulation. The warm pools (SST>28°C) extend from the Indian Ocean, across the Indonesian Archipelago into the western Pacific with a secondary area crossing Central America into the Caribbean and the central Atlantic ocean. The heating in the atmosphere above the warm pool influences climate over wide ranges of the planet. As there are zonal asymmetries in the extent of the warm pool, and hence variations in the locations of total heating of the atmospheric column, the warm pools also create centers of diabatic heating along the equator which set up the position and strength of the east-west Circulations which play integral roles in the coupled ocean-atmosphere tropical climate. In fact, almost all of the global vertically integrated heating resides over waters >27°C. The tropical warm pool is characterized by large-scale variations of SST on time scales that range from intraseasonal to interdecadal, considerably altering the forcing to the atmosphere. In addition to the existence of the large variability of the tropical warm pool SST, there is an upward trend in the tropical warm pool area, which is evident in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans with the area encompassed by the 28C isotherm groewing by 67% since 1920. Changes in the zonal and meridional circulation associated with the variability and expansion of the warm pool are studied using NCEP-NCAR and ERA40 reanalsysis. It is found that the impacts extend around the tropics and are associated with a slowing down of the Asian monsoon circulation and modulation of the of the equatorial Walker cells. Analysis of the IPCC-CMIP3 models for the 20th century show similar changes in the warm pool extent suggesting that changes that occur under different future emission scenarios may poossess credence. With greenhouse warming it is found that the warm pool

  16. Deep Arctic Ocean warming during the last glacial cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Farmer, J.; Bauch, H.A.; Spielhagen, R.F.; Jakobsson, M.; Nilsson, J.; Briggs, W.M.; Stepanova, A.

    2012-01-01

    In the Arctic Ocean, the cold and relatively fresh water beneath the sea ice is separated from the underlying warmer and saltier Atlantic Layer by a halocline. Ongoing sea ice loss and warming in the Arctic Ocean have demonstrated the instability of the halocline, with implications for further sea ice loss. The stability of the halocline through past climate variations is unclear. Here we estimate intermediate water temperatures over the past 50,000 years from the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca values of ostracods from 31 Arctic sediment cores. From about 50 to 11 kyr ago, the central Arctic Basin from 1,000 to 2,500 m was occupied by a water mass we call Glacial Arctic Intermediate Water. This water mass was 1–2 °C warmer than modern Arctic Intermediate Water, with temperatures peaking during or just before millennial-scale Heinrich cold events and the Younger Dryas cold interval. We use numerical modelling to show that the intermediate depth warming could result from the expected decrease in the flux of fresh water to the Arctic Ocean during glacial conditions, which would cause the halocline to deepen and push the warm Atlantic Layer into intermediate depths. Although not modelled, the reduced formation of cold, deep waters due to the exposure of the Arctic continental shelf could also contribute to the intermediate depth warming.

  17. Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGrath, Daniel; Colgan, William; Bayou, Nicolas; Muto, Atsuhiro; Steffen, Konrad

    2013-05-01

    at Summit, Greenland suggest that the annual mean near-surface air temperature increased at 0.09 ± 0.01°C/a over the 1982-2011 climatology period. This rate of warming, six times the global average, places Summit in the 99th percentile of all globally observed warming trends over this period. The rate of warming at Summit is increasing over time. During the instrumental period (1987-2011), warming has been greatest in the winter season, although the implications of summer warming are more acute. The annual maximum elevation of the equilibrium line and dry snow line has risen at 44 and 35 m/a over the past 15 and 18 years, respectively. Extrapolation of this observed trend now suggests, with 95% confidence intervals, that the dry snow facies of the Greenland Ice Sheet will inevitably transition to percolation facies. There is a 50% probability of this transition occurring by 2025.

  18. Rain rate statistics and fade distributions at 20 and 30 GHz derived from a network of rain gauges in the Mid-Atlantic coast over a five year period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhirsh, Julius; Krichevsky, Vladimir; Gebo, Norman E.

    1992-01-01

    A network of ten tipping bucket rain gauges located within a grid 70 km north-south and 47 km east-west in the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States was used to analyze rain rate and modeled slant path attenuation distributions at 20 and 30 GHz. It was shown that, for realistic fade margins at 20 GHz and above, the variable integration times results are adequate to estimate slant path attenuations using models which require 1 min averages. Crane's Global Model was used to derive fade distributions at 20 and 30 GHz.

  19. The Equatorial Undercurrent in the central Atlantic and its relation to tropical Atlantic variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandt, Peter; Funk, Andreas; Tantet, Alexis; Johns, William E.; Fischer, Jürgen

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal to interannual variations of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in the central Atlantic at 23?Ware studied using shipboard observation taken during the period 1999–2011 as well as moored velocity time series covering the period May 2005–June 2011. The sea- sonal variations are dominated by a

  20. 不同热缺血时间对猪胰岛获取及功能的影响%Effect of different warm-ischemia periods on islet isolation and function in pigs

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张明; 杜成友

    2011-01-01

    背景:目前国内外有关热缺血时间对胰岛移植影响的研究相对较少,更缺乏胰岛移植安全热缺血时限的统一标准.目的:观察不同热缺血时间对胰岛形态、获取及功能的影响.方法:以猪胰腺为观察对象,以不同热缺血时间0,10,20,30,45 min采用体、尾部区段胰管内灌注胶原酶Ⅴ和胶原酶Ⅰ混合静置消化,Ficoll400间断密度梯度法纯化胰岛,观察各时间点所得胰岛的形态、活性、胰岛当量数( IEQ)与功能.结果与结论:各时间点均可获得形态完整的胰岛,但随热缺血时间延长形态不完整、破碎胰岛逐渐增加,大于30 min时比较明显,45 min时很难得到完整的胰岛.0,10,20 min胰岛活率大于80%,30 min大于60%,45 min小于40%.胰岛获得量30,45 min与0 min之间有显著差异(P < 0.05).葡萄糖刺激胰岛素释放试验30,45 min与0 min比较有显著差异(P < 0.05),且刺激指数< 2.结果提示,热缺血时间在20 min以内时,分离、纯化后胰岛的形态、产量、活性及功能都无明显的差异,且功能良好;大于30 min时,胰岛形态、产量及功能改变显著,且功能低下.%BACKGROUND:A few studies address the effect of warm-ischemia time on islet transplantation, moreover, it lacks of unified standards of safe warm ischemia time of islet transplantation.OBJECTIVE:To observe the effect of different warm-ischemia time on islet morphology, yield and fu nction.METHODS:Pig pancreas as the object of observation, collagenase V combined with collagenase I were perfused into pancreatic duct of body and tailer standing to digest, according to warm-ischemia time (WIT) (0, 10, 20, 30, 45 min). Discontinuous Fico11400 density gradient method was applied to the purification of the islets, and the morphology, activity, equivalent, and function of islets were observed at various times.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Integrity islets were obtained at various times. However, with the prolonged time, imperfect morphology

  1. Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

    2016-02-01

    Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales.

  2. Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming over East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Guan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available As the climate change occurred over East Asia since 1950s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. In this study, we investigate surface temperature change using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced temperature (DIT and radiatively forced temperature (RFT changes in raw surface air temperature (SAT data. For regional averages, DIT and RFT make 43.7 and 56.3 % contributions to the SAT over East Asia, respectively. The DIT changes dominate the SAT decadal variability and are mainly determined by internal climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO. The radiatively forced SAT changes made major contribution to the global-scale warming trend and the regional-scale enhanced semi-arid warming (ESAW. Such enhanced warming is also found in radiatively forced daily maximum and minimum SAT. The long-term global-mean SAT warming trend is mainly related to radiative forcing produced by global well-mixed greenhouse gases. The regional anthropogenic radiative forcing, however, caused the enhanced warming in the semi-arid region, which may be closely associated with local human activities. Finally, the relationship between global warming hiatus and regional enhanced warming is discussed.

  3. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic Teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated principal...

  4. Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

  5. Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Bo; Zhou, Tianjun

    2017-01-01

    Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013 however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear. Here, we divided recent decades into the recent hiatus period and the preceding warming period (1983–1998) to investigate the atmospheric footprint. We use a process-resolving analysis method to quantify the contributions of different processes to the total temperature changes. We show that the increasing rate of global mean tropospheric temperature was also reduced during the hiatus period. The decomposed trends due to physical processes, including surface albedo, water vapour, cloud, surface turbulent fluxes and atmospheric dynamics, reversed the patterns between the two periods. The changes in atmospheric heat transport are coupled with changes in the surface latent heat flux across the lower troposphere (below approximately 800 hPa) and with cloud-related processes in the upper troposphere (above approximately 600 hPa) and were underpinned by strengthening/weakening Hadley Circulation and Walker Circulation during the warming/hiatus period. This dynamical coupling experienced a phase transition between the two periods, reminding us of the importance of understanding the atmospheric footprint, which constitutes an essential part of internal climate variability.

  6. Improvements of Satellite Derived Cyclonic Rainfall Over The North Atlantic and Implications Upon The Air-sea Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klepp, C.; Bakan, S.; Grassl, H.

    Case studies of rainfall, derived from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) satellite data, during the passage of individual cyclones over the North Atlantic are presented to enhance the knowledge of rainfall processes asso ciated with frontal sys- tems. The Multi-Satellite-Technique (MST) is described to receive a complete cov- erage of the North Atlantic twice a day. Different SSM/I precipitation algorithms (Bauer and Schlüssel, Ferraro, Wentz) have been tested for individual cyclones and were compared to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data sets and NWP model results (ECMWF, REMO). An independent rainfall pattern and -intensity vali dation method is presented using voluntary observing ship (VOS) data sets and AVHRR images. Intense storms occur very often in the wintertime period with cold fronts propagating far south over the North Atlantic. Large frontal conditions are mostly well represented in all tested data sets. Following upstream numerous showers are usually embedded in the cellular structures of the cold air on the backside of post frontal subsidences. Cold air clusters frequently occur in these backside regions which produce heavy convective rainfall events. Espe cially in the region off Newfoundland at 50o North, where very cold air within arctic cold air outbreaks is advected over the warm waters of the Gulfstream current, these heavily raining clusters often rapidly form into mesoscale storms. These small but intense cyclones up to 1500km in diame- ter are characterized by very heavy precipitation over the entire region and may occur every three days in wintertime. The storms can be easily identified on AVHRR im- ages. Only the SSM/I rainfall algorithm of Bauer and Schlüssel in combination with the presented MST is sensitive enough to detect the correct patterns and intensities of rainfall for those cyclone types over the North Atlantic, whereas the GPCP products fail in recognizing any rainfall at all. A SLP study figures

  7. Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations during the last two millennia in Morocco, inferred from two high resolution δ18O speleothem records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ait Brahim, Yassine; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Khodri, Myriam; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Cruz, Francisco W.; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cheng, Hai

    2017-04-01

    Climate projections predict substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. Herein, we present two high resolution and well dated speleothems oxygen isotope (δ18O) records sampled from Chaara and Ifoulki caves (located in Northeastern and Southwestern Morocco respectively) to investigate hydroclimate variations during the last 2000 years. Our results are supported by a monitoring network of δ18O in precipitation from 17 stations in Morocco. The new paleoclimate records are discussed in the light of existing continental and marine paleoclimate proxies in Morocco to identify significant correlations at various lead times with the main reconstructed oceanic and atmospheric variability modes and possible climate teleconnections that have potentially influenced the climate during the last two millennia in Morocco. The results reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords. Evidence of dry conditions exist during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period and the Climate Warm Period (CWP) and humid conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Statistical analyses suggest that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last two millennia. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably

  8. Ships' logbooks and North Atlantic air circulation reconstructions 1685 - 1750

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, D.; Ward, C.; Wilkinson, C.; Garcia-Herrera, R.

    2010-09-01

    Much attention has been given to the study of documentary records that chronicle climatic events in Europe over the past half-millennium and more. It is inevitable that such sources have focussed on events on land. Hitherto it has often been assumed that correspondingly useful and contemporary material is not available for the oceans. This assumption is incorrect, and recent activities by the authors of this contribution have drawn increasingly wide attention to the vast fund of information available in the logbooks of ships, and particularly those of the Royal Navy. For the pre-instrumental period, which can be taken as before the mid-nineteenth century, some 120,000 logbooks reside in British archives containing over 20,000,000 days of observations of wind force and direction. This presentation takes a sub-sample of this huge collection and confines its attention to the North East Atlantic region, focussing on the seas around the British Isles. A daily record of wind force and direction has been abstracted and worked up into monthly-aggregated values for the period 1685 to 1750. We review the changing nature of air circulations over this critical period, which includes the Maunder Minimum and the years of gradual but by no means consistent warming that marked the first half of the eighteenth century. Conclusions are drawn about the fashion in which the organisation of the air circulations are reflected in, and help to, explain the temperature fluctuations of that period. Conclusions are also drawn concerning the changing patterns of wind strength and

  9. Reality of Global Warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Global warming is today heard in the international arena as frequently and with the same brooding concern as terrorism, nuclear weapons and the Iraq war. Zou Ji, Vice Dean of the School of Environment, Renmin University of China in Beijing, has been a me

  10. Norwegian Sea warm pulses during Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials: Zooming in on these anomalies over the 35-41 ka cal BP interval and their impacts on proximal European ice-sheet dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wary, Mélanie; Eynaud, Frédérique; Rossignol, Linda; Lapuyade, Joanna; Gasparotto, Marie-Camille; Londeix, Laurent; Malaizé, Bruno; Castéra, Marie-Hélène; Charlier, Karine

    2016-11-01

    The last glacial millennial climatic events (i.e. Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events) constitute outstanding case studies of coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere interactions. Here, we investigate the evolution of sea-surface and subsurface conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and sea ice cover, at very high-resolution (mean resolution between 55 and 155 years depending on proxies) during the 35-41 ka cal BP interval covering three Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and including Heinrich event 4, in a new unpublished marine record, i.e. the MD99-2285 core (62.69°N; -3.57s°E). We use a large panel of complementary tools, which notably includes dinocyst-derived sea-ice cover duration quantifications. The high temporal resolution and multiproxy approach of this work allows us to identify the sequence of processes and to assess ocean-cryosphere interactions occurring during these periodic ice-sheet collapse events. Our results evidence a paradoxical hydrological scheme where (i) Greenland interstadials are marked by a homogeneous and cold upper water column, with intensive winter sea ice formation and summer sea ice melting, and (ii) Greenland and Heinrich stadials are characterized by a very warm and low saline surface layer with iceberg calving and reduced sea ice formation, separated by a strong halocline from a less warm and saltier subsurface layer. Our work also suggests that this stadial surface/subsurface warming started before massive iceberg release, in relation with warm Atlantic water advection. These findings thus support the theory that upper ocean warming might have triggered European ice-sheet destabilization. Besides, previous paleoceanographic studies conducted along the Atlantic inflow pathways close to the edge of European ice-sheets suggest that such a feature might have occurred in this whole area. Nonetheless, additional high resolution paleoreconstructions are required to confirm such a regional scheme.

  11. A sudden stratospheric warming compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Amy H.; Sjoberg, Jeremiah P.; Seidel, Dian J.; Rosenlof, Karen H.

    2017-02-01

    Major, sudden midwinter stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological westerly winds (i.e., the polar vortex). These extreme events can have substantial impacts on winter surface climate, including increased frequency of cold air outbreaks over North America and Eurasia and anomalous warming over Greenland and eastern Canada. Here we present a SSW Compendium (SSWC), a new database that documents the evolution of the stratosphere, troposphere, and surface conditions 60 days prior to and after SSWs for the period 1958-2014. The SSWC comprises data from six different reanalysis products: MERRA2 (1980-2014), JRA-55 (1958-2014), ERA-interim (1979-2014), ERA-40 (1958-2002), NOAA20CRv2c (1958-2011), and NCEP-NCAR I (1958-2014). Global gridded daily anomaly fields, full fields, and derived products are provided for each SSW event. The compendium will allow users to examine the structure and evolution of individual SSWs, and the variability among events and among reanalysis products. The SSWC is archived and maintained by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI, http://dx.doi.org/10.7289/V5NS0RWP" target="_blank">doi:10.7289/V5NS0RWP).

  12. Ecotypic differentiation in thermal traits in the tropical to warm-temperate green macrophyte Valonia utricularis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eggert, A.; Burger, E.M.; Breeman, Arno

    2003-01-01

    Differentiation of thermal traits (i.e. growth, survival and reproduction) was studied in the green macrophyte Valonia utricularis (Roth) C. Agardh, which has a world-wide tropical to warm-temperate distribution. Ecotypic differentiation between northeast Atlantic/Mediterranean and Indo-west Pacific

  13. Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. B. Holden

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed ~300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least ~3–4 °C warmer than preindustrial (CO2~280 ppm in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (~3000 years and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as "Warmer than Present Transients" (WPTs. We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.

  14. Spatial distributions of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities have been resilient to long-term surface warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarling, Geraint A; Ward, Peter; Thorpe, Sally E

    2017-08-29

    The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long-term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926-1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996-2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s-1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It

  15. Deep Sea Benthic Foraminifera: Love Cold, Fear Warm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, E.

    2007-12-01

    /or transfer of food to the sea floor, and 4. increasing temperatures. All 4 factors may have contributed to the extinction, but the first three factors varied regionally and by depth, whereas only the temperature increase affected the deep-sea environment globally. High temperatures not only increase overall metabolic rates, but also affect which species of prokaryotes are most active and which labile compounds they generate, thus the compounds and the amount of labile organic matter available for foraminiferal feeding. At sites along a depth transect at Walvis Ridge (SE Atlantic) species that earlier had been abundant in neritic waters ( Tappanina selmensis) increased strongly in abundance. Some surviving deep-sea species underwent diversification and morphological evolution; during and just after the PETM and two other hyperthermal events the deep-sea genus Abyssamina became more abundant (most pronounced at the deeper sites), while evolving into several morphological species. During the warmer intervals its aperture became more irregular in shape, with an extremely asymmetrical shape at the deepest site during ETM1. The aperture in benthic foraminifera directs the streaming of pseudopods, thus the way of food intake, suggesting that the nature of benthic feeding changed during the warm periods. During the early Eocene (a period characterized by hyperthermals), faunas maintained larger differences in assemblage composition between ocean basins than before the extinction. It remains a question whether this faunal heterogeneity reflects the mode of deep-ocean circulation/ventilation during the warmest period of the Cenozoic.

  16. Southern Ocean origin for the resumption of Atlantic thermohaline circulation during deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2003-07-31

    During the two most recent deglaciations, the Southern Hemisphere warmed before Greenland. At the same time, the northern Atlantic Ocean was exposed to meltwater discharge, which is generally assumed to reduce the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. Yet during deglaciation, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation became more vigorous, in the transition from a weak glacial to a strong interglacial mode. Here we use a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to investigate the impact of Southern Ocean warming and the associated sea-ice retreat on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We find that a gradual warming in the Southern Ocean during deglaciation induces an abrupt resumption of the interglacial mode of the thermohaline circulation, triggered by increased mass transport into the Atlantic Ocean via the warm (Indian Ocean) and cold (Pacific Ocean) water route. This effect prevails over the influence of meltwater discharge, which would oppose a strengthening of the thermohaline circulation. A Southern Ocean trigger for the transition into an interglacial mode of circulation provides a consistent picture of Southern and Northern hemispheric climate change at times of deglaciation, in agreement with the available proxy records.

  17. A coral-based reconstruction of Atlantic sea surface temperature trends and variability since 1552 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saenger, C. P.; Cohen, A. L.; Oppo, D.; Carilli, J.; Halley, R. B.

    2009-12-01

    North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) variability can have a near global impact on climate. Observed variability has been described as a natural multidecadal (65-100 year) oscillation superimposed upon a linearly- increasing, externally-forced background warming. The multidecadal portion of this variability may be persistent, suggesting useful decadal climate predictions may soon be possible. However, our understanding of multidecadal Atlantic SST variability prior to the brief instrumental record relies almost exclusively on high latitude tree-ring proxies. No proxy SST reconstruction from the Atlantic itself has the resolution, dating accuracy and length needed to assess the behavior of multidecadal variability. We present the first absolutely dated and annually-resolved multi-centennial record of Atlantic sea surface temperature. Our 439-year coral-based reconstruction suggests western low-latitude Atlantic SSTs were nearly as warm as today from ~1552-1570 A.D., cooled by more than 1°C from ~1650-1730 A.D. and generally warmed to the present. Estimates of externally-forced background variability suggest that anthropogenic forcing can account for most of the warming since 1850 A.D. Multidecadal variations superimposed upon this background disappear prior to ~1730 A.D. in favor of interdecadal (15-20 year) variability. This suggests observed multidecadal variability is not persistent and may be difficult to predict.

  18. Light accelerates plant responses to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Frenne, Pieter; Rodríguez-Sánchez, Francisco; De Schrijver, An; Coomes, David A; Hermy, Martin; Vangansbeke, Pieter; Verheyen, Kris

    2015-08-17

    Competition for light has profound effects on plant performance in virtually all terrestrial ecosystems. Nowhere is this more evident than in forests, where trees create environmental heterogeneity that shapes the dynamics of forest-floor communities(1-3). Observational evidence suggests that biotic responses to both anthropogenic global warming and nitrogen pollution may be attenuated by the shading effects of trees and shrubs(4-9). Here we show experimentally that tree shade is slowing down changes in below-canopy communities due to warming. We manipulated levels of photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and nitrogen, alone and in combination, in a temperate forest understorey over a 3-year period, and monitored the composition of the understorey community. Light addition, but not nitrogen enrichment, accelerated directional plant community responses to warming, increasing the dominance of warmth-preferring taxa over cold-tolerant plants (a process described as thermophilization(6,10-12)). Tall, competitive plants took greatest advantage of the combination of elevated temperature and light. Warming of the forest floor did not result in strong community thermophilization unless light was also increased. Our findings suggest that the maintenance of locally closed canopy conditions could reduce, at least temporarily, warming-induced changes in forest floor plant communities.

  19. Warm Indian Ocean, Weak Asian Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koll Roxy, Mathew; Ritika, Kapoor; Terray, Pascal; Murtugudde, Raghu; Ashok, Karumuri; Nath Goswami, Buphendra

    2015-04-01

    There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian monsoon in a changing climate. Observations and climate models have suggested that anthropogenic warming in the past century has increased the moisture availability and the land-sea thermal contrast in the tropics, favoring an increase in monsoon rainfall. In contrast, we notice that South Asian subcontinent experienced a relatively subdued warming during this period. At the same time, the tropical Indian Ocean experienced a nearly monotonic warming, at a rate faster than the other tropical oceans. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we suggest that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming along with the suppressed warming of the subcontinent weaken the land-sea thermal contrast throughout the troposphere, dampen the monsoon Hadley circulation, and reduce the rainfall over South Asia. As a result, the summer monsoon rainfall during 1901-2012 shows a significant weakening trend over South Asia, extending from Pakistan through central India to Bangladesh.

  20. Could Cirrus Clouds Have Warmed Early Mars?

    CERN Document Server

    Ramirez, Ramses M

    2016-01-01

    The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates that the climate at 3.8 Ga was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the mechanism for producing this warming continues to be debated. One hypothesis is that Mars could have been kept warm by global cirrus cloud decks in a CO2-H2O atmosphere containing at least 0.25 bar of CO2 (Urata and Toon, 2013). Initial warming from some other process, e.g., impacts, would be required to make this model work. Those results were generated using the CAM 3-D global climate model. Here, we use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to further investigate the cirrus cloud warming hypothesis. Our calculations indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have produced global mean surface temperatures above freezing, but only if cirrus cloud cover approaches ~75 - 100% and if other cloud properties (e.g., height, optical depth, particle size) are chosen favorably. However, at more real...

  1. A model simulation of circulation in the Northeast Atlantic shelves and seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-12-01

    A three-dimensional, primitive-equation simulation of the circulation in the northeast Atlantic shelves and seas, defined by 51°-76°N latitudes and 20°W-22°E longitudes, has been conducted for the period February-March 1988. The simulation was initialized from a 585-day quasi-equilibrium calculation and included realistic meteorological forcing, inflows/outflows across the open boundaries (inflow of the North Atlantic warm wate in particular), tides, coastal and Baltic discharges, and relaxation to wintertime climatology for model depths >500 m. The calculation is the first part of an overall effort to nest a high-resolution region for simulation of eddies and fronts in the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC). This paper presents detailed simulation strategies and discusses results from the coarse-grid region to study the larger-scale model response induced by atmospheric forcing, so that its effects on flow dynamics in the nested grid can be better understood. The mean and variability of the simulated flow field are compared, whenever possible, with published observations. In particular, we examine in detail the simulated wind-induced response in the Skagerrak transport, which produces blocking and outbreak of the Skagerrak and North Sea waters. These transport variabilities can be expected to be important in the development of the NCC meanders and eddies further north.

  2. Warm Springs pupfish recovery plan

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This document gives a history of pupfish and focuses on the warm springs pupfish. The warm springs pupfish is endangered, and this is a plan to help recover the...

  3. Global warming and thermohaline circulation stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael; Thorpe, Robert

    2003-09-15

    The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays an important role in global climate. Theoretical and palaeoclimatic evidence points to the possibility of rapid changes in the strength of the THC, including a possible quasi-permanent shutdown. The climatic impacts of such a shutdown would be severe, including a cooling throughout the Northern Hemisphere, which in some regions is greater in magnitude than the changes expected from global warming in the next 50 years. Other climatic impacts would likely include a severe alteration of rainfall patterns in the tropics, the Indian subcontinent and Europe. Modelling the future behaviour of the THC focuses on two key questions. (i) Is a gradual weakening of the THC likely in response to global warming, and if so by how much? (ii) Are there thresholds beyond which rapid or irreversible changes in the THC are likely? Most projections of the response of the THC to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases suggest a gradual weakening over the twenty-first century. However, there is a wide variation between different models over the size of the weakening. Rapid or irreversible THC shutdown is considered a low-probability (but high-impact) outcome; however, some climate models of intermediate complexity do show the possibility of such events. The question of the future of the THC is beset with conceptual, modelling and observational uncertainties, but some current and planned projects show promise to make substantial progress in tackling these uncertainties in future.

  4. Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa; Ritz, Catherine

    2013-10-08

    Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted detritus in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period interpreted as massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence of the crucial role that the ocean plays both for past and future behavior of the cryosphere suggests a climatic control of these ice surges. Here, we present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. The model generates a time series of iceberg discharge that closely agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka, indicating that oceanic circulation variations were responsible for the enigmatic ice purges of the last ice age.

  5. Warm Little Inflaton.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Berera, Arjun; Ramos, Rudnei O; Rosa, João G

    2016-10-07

    We show that inflation can naturally occur at a finite temperature T>H that is sustained by dissipative effects, when the inflaton field corresponds to a pseudo Nambu-Goldstone boson of a broken gauge symmetry. Similar to the Little Higgs scenarios for electroweak symmetry breaking, the flatness of the inflaton potential is protected against both quadratic divergences and the leading thermal corrections. We show that, nevertheless, nonlocal dissipative effects are naturally present and are able to sustain a nearly thermal bath of light particles despite the accelerated expansion of the Universe. As an example, we discuss the dynamics of chaotic warm inflation with a quartic potential and show that the associated observational predictions are in very good agreement with the latest Planck results. This model constitutes the first realization of warm inflation requiring only a small number of fields; in particular, the inflaton is directly coupled to just two light fields.

  6. Warm Little Inflaton

    CERN Document Server

    Bastero-Gil, Mar; Ramos, Rudnei O; Rosa, Joao G

    2016-01-01

    We show that inflation can naturally occur at a finite temperature T>H that is sustained by dissipative effects, when the inflaton field corresponds to a pseudo-Nambu Goldstone boson of a broken gauge symmetry. Similarly to "Little Higgs" scenarios for electroweak symmetry breaking, the flatness of the inflaton potential is protected against both quadratic divergences and the leading thermal corrections. We show that, nevertheless, non-local dissipative effects are naturally present and are able to sustain a nearly-thermal bath of light particles despite the accelerated expansion of the Universe. As an example, we discuss the dynamics of chaotic warm inflation with a quartic potential and show that the associated observational predictions are in very good agreement with the latest Planck results. This model constitutes the first realization of warm inflation where the inflaton is directly coupled to only two light fields.

  7. Paleoceanography. Onset of Mediterranean outflow into the North Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Molina, F Javier; Stow, Dorrik A V; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Acton, Gary; Bahr, André; Balestra, Barbara; Ducassou, Emmanuelle; Flood, Roger; Flores, José-Abel; Furota, Satoshi; Grunert, Patrick; Hodell, David; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco; Kim, Jin Kyoung; Krissek, Lawrence; Kuroda, Junichiro; Li, Baohua; Llave, Estefania; Lofi, Johanna; Lourens, Lucas; Miller, Madeline; Nanayama, Futoshi; Nishida, Naohisa; Richter, Carl; Roque, Cristina; Pereira, Hélder; Sanchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Sierro, Francisco J; Singh, Arun Deo; Sloss, Craig; Takashimizu, Yasuhiro; Tzanova, Alexandrina; Voelker, Antje; Williams, Trevor; Xuan, Chuang

    2014-06-13

    Sediments cored along the southwestern Iberian margin during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339 provide constraints on Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) circulation patterns from the Pliocene epoch to the present day. After the Strait of Gibraltar opened (5.33 million years ago), a limited volume of MOW entered the Atlantic. Depositional hiatuses indicate erosion by bottom currents related to higher volumes of MOW circulating into the North Atlantic, beginning in the late Pliocene. The hiatuses coincide with regional tectonic events and changes in global thermohaline circulation (THC). This suggests that MOW influenced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), THC, and climatic shifts by contributing a component of warm, saline water to northern latitudes while in turn being influenced by plate tectonics.

  8. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  9. Atlantic Salmon Telemetry Monitoring

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Annual telemetry data are collected as part of specific projects (assessments within watersheds) or as opportunistic efforts to characterize Atlantic salmon smolt...

  10. Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Liming

    2016-08-01

    Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor.

  11. Climate warming decreases the survival of the little auk (Alle alle), a high Arctic avian predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovinen, Johanna E H; Welcker, Jorg; Descamps, Sébastien; Strøm, Hallvard; Jerstad, Kurt; Berge, Jørgen; Steen, Harald

    2014-01-01

    Delayed maturity, low fecundity, and high adult survival are traits typical for species with a long-life expectancy. For such species, even a small change in adult survival can strongly affect the population dynamics and viability. We examined the effects of both regional and local climatic variability on adult survival of the little auk, a long-lived and numerous Arctic seabird species. We conducted a mark-resighting study for a period of 8 years (2006-2013) simultaneously at three little auk breeding sites that are influenced by the West Spitsbergen Current, which is the main carrier of warm, Atlantic water into the Arctic. We found that the survival of adult little auks was negatively correlated with both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and local summer sea surface temperature (SST), with a time lag of 2 and 1 year, respectively. The effects of NAO and SST were likely mediated through a change in food quality and/or availability: (1) reproduction, growth, and development of Arctic Calanus copepods, the main prey of little auks, are negatively influenced by a reduction in sea ice, reduced ice algal production, and an earlier but shorter lasting spring bloom, all of which result from an increased NAO; (2) a high sea surface temperature shortens the reproductive period of Arctic Calanus, decreasing the number of eggs produced. A synchronous variation in survival rates at the different colonies indicates that climatic forcing was similar throughout the study area. Our findings suggest that a predicted warmer climate in the Arctic will negatively affect the population dynamics of the little auk, a high Arctic avian predator. PMID:25247069

  12. Similarity in microbial amino acid uptake in surface waters of the North and South Atlantic (sub-)tropical gyres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Polly G.; Mary, Isabelle; Purdie, Duncan A.; Zubkov, Mikhail V.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth’s most extensive biomes - the oceanic subtropical gyres - are considered to be expanding with current surface ocean warming. Although it is well established that microbial communities control gyre biogeochemistry, comparisons of their metabolic activities between gyres are limited. In order to estimate metabolic activities including production of microbial communities, the uptake rates of amino acids leucine, methionine and tyrosine at ambient concentrations were estimated in surface waters of the Atlantic Ocean using radioisotopically labelled tracers. Data were acquired during six research cruises covering main oceanic provinces herein termed: North and South Atlantic Gyres, Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study site (BATS), Equatorial region, and Mauritanian Upwelling (off Cape Blanc). Data were divided between provinces, the extents of which were identified by ocean colour data, in order to achieve provincial mean uptake rates. Leucine and methionine uptake rates did not differ between sampling periods, and were comparable between the North and South subtropical gyres. Furthermore, variation in uptake rates measured throughout the two oligotrophic gyres, where sampling covered ∼4 × 10 6 km 2, was considerably lower than that measured within the Mauritanian Upwelling and Equatorial regions, and even at the BATS site. Tyrosine was generally the slowest of the amino acids to be taken up, however, it was assimilated faster than methionine within the Mauritanian Upwelling region. Thus, we propose that one value for leucine (12.6 ± 3.2 pmol L -1 h -1) and methionine (10.0 ± 3.3 pmol L -1 h -1) uptake could be applied to the oligotrophic subtropical gyres of the Atlantic Ocean. However, with the significantly lower uptake rates observed at the BATS site, we would not advise extrapolation to the Sargasso Sea.

  13. Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

    2016-10-01

    The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

  14. Woman Swims Atlantic

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贾庆文

    2009-01-01

    Jennifer Figge pressed her toes into the Caribbean sand, excited and exhausted as she touched land this week for the first time in almost a month. Reaching a beach in Trinidad, she became the first woman on record to s,Mm across the Atlantic Ocean-a dream she'd had since the early 1960s, when a stormy trans-Atlantic flight got her thinking she could wear a life vest and swim the rest of the way if needed.

  15. Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanamaker, Alan D; Butler, Paul G; Scourse, James D; Heinemeier, Jan; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Richardson, Christopher A

    2012-06-12

    Despite numerous investigations, the dynamical origins of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age remain uncertain. A major unresolved issue relating to internal climate dynamics is the mode and tempo of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, and the significance of decadal-to-centennial scale changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength in regulating the climate of the last millennium. Here we use the time-constrained high-resolution local radiocarbon reservoir age offset derived from an absolutely dated annually resolved shell chronology spanning the past 1,350 years, to reconstruct changes in surface ocean circulation and climate. The water mass tracer data presented here from the North Icelandic shelf, combined with previously published data from the Arctic and subtropical Atlantic, show that surface Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dynamics likely amplified the relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the relatively cool conditions during the Little Ice Age within the North Atlantic sector.

  16. Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joos; Plattner; Stocker; Marchal; Schmittner

    1999-04-16

    A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Compared with the control, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by 4 percent at year 2100 and 20 percent at year 2500. The reduction in ocean carbon uptake can be mainly explained by sea surface warming. The projected changes of the marine biological cycle compensate the reduction in downward mixing of anthropogenic carbon, except when the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses.

  17. More, smaller bacteria in response to ocean's warming?

    KAUST Repository

    Moran, Xose Anxelu G.

    2015-06-10

    Heterotrophic bacteria play a major role in organic matter cycling in the ocean. Although the high abundances and relatively fast growth rates of coastal surface bacterioplankton make them suitable sentinels of global change, past analyses have largely overlooked this functional group. Here, time series analysis of a decade of monthly observations in temperate Atlantic coastal waters revealed strong seasonal patterns in the abundance, size and biomass of the ubiquitous flow-cytometric groups of low (LNA) and high nucleic acid (HNA) content bacteria. Over this relatively short period, we also found that bacterioplankton cells were significantly smaller, a trend that is consistent with the hypothesized temperature-driven decrease in body size. Although decadal cell shrinking was observed for both groups, it was only LNA cells that were strongly coherent, with ecological theories linking temperature, abundance and individual size on both the seasonal and interannual scale. We explain this finding because, relative to their HNA counterparts, marine LNA bacteria are less diverse, dominated by members of the SAR11 clade. Temperature manipulation experiments in 2012 confirmed a direct effect of warming on bacterial size. Concurrent with rising temperatures in spring, significant decadal trends of increasing standing stocks (3% per year) accompanied by decreasing mean cell size (-1% per year) suggest a major shift in community structure, with a larger contribution of LNA bacteria to total biomass. The increasing prevalence of these typically oligotrophic taxa may severely impact marine foodwebs and carbon fluxes by an overall decrease in the efficiency of the biological pump. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  18. Mechanisms for stronger warming over drier ecoregions observed since 1979

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Liming; Chen, Haishan; Hua, Wenjian; Dai, Yongjiu; Wei, Nan

    2016-11-01

    Previous research found that the warming rate observed for the period 1979-2012 increases dramatically with decreasing vegetation greenness over land between 50°S and 50°N, with the strongest warming rate seen over the driest regions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula, suggesting warming amplification over deserts. To further this finding, this paper explores possible mechanisms for this amplification by analyzing observations, reanalysis data and historical simulations of global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. We examine various variables, related to surface radiative forcing, land surface properties, and surface energy and radiation budget, that control the warming patterns in terms of large-scale ecoregions. Our results indicate that desert amplification is likely attributable primarily to enhanced longwave radiative forcing associated with a stronger water vapor feedback over drier ecoregions in response to the positive global-scale greenhouse gas forcing. This warming amplification and associated downward longwave radiation at the surface are reproduced by historical simulations with anthropogenic and natural forcings, but are absent if only natural forcings are considered, pointing to new potential fingerprints of anthropogenic warming. These results suggest a fundamental pattern of global warming over land that depend on the dryness of ecosystems in mid- and low- latitudes, likely reflecting primarily the first order large-scale thermodynamic component of global warming linked to changes in the water and energy cycles over different ecosystems. This finding may have important implications in interpreting global warming patterns and assessing climate change impacts.

  19. ENSO related SST anomalies and relation with surface heat fluxes over south Pacific and Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, S.; Nuncio, M.; Satheesan, K.

    2017-07-01

    The role of surface heat fluxes in Southern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SST anomalies associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using observation and ocean reanalysis products. A prominent dipole structure in SST anomaly is found with a positive (negative) anomaly center over south Pacific (65S-45S, 120W-70W) and negative (positive) one over south Atlantic (50S-30S, 30W-0E) during austral summer (DJF) of El Nino (LaNina). During late austral spring-early summer (OND) of El Nino (LaNina), anomalous northerly (southerly) meridional moisture transport and a positive (negative) sea level pressure anomaly induces a suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux from the ocean surface over south Pacific. This in turn results in a shallower than normal mixed layer depth which further helps in development of the SST anomaly. Mixed layer thins further due to anomalous shortwave radiation during summer and a well developed SST anomaly evolves. The south Atlantic pole exhibits exactly opposite characteristics at the same time. The contribution from the surface heat fluxes to mixed layer temperature change is found to be dominant over the advective processes over both the basins. Net surface heat fluxes anomaly is also found to be maximum during late austral spring-early summer period, with latent heat flux having a major contribution to it. The anomalous latent heat fluxes between atmosphere and ocean surface play important role in the growth of observed summertime SST anomaly. Sea-surface height also shows similar out-of-phase signatures over the two basins and are well correlated with the ENSO related SST anomalies. It is also observed that the magnitude of ENSO related anomalies over the southern ocean are weaker in LaNina years than in El Nino years, suggesting an intensified tropics-high latitude tele-connection during warm phases of ENSO.

  20. Global Warming And Meltwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bratu, S.

    2012-04-01

    In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of

  1. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Alvarez, Francisco; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Keenlyside, Noel; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-08-01

    The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region.

  2. Rapid ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Rasmussen, Sune; Hutchinson, David; Haberle, Simon; Lorrey, Andrew; Boswijk, Gretel

    2017-04-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late last glacial period (60,000 to 11,703 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with cooling in the north leading the onset of warming in the south. Some events, however, appear to have occurred independently of changes in deep water formation but still have a southern expression, implying that an alternative mechanism may have driven some global climatic changes during the glacial. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records of abrupt change. Here we exploit a bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate datasets spanning 28,400 to 30,400 years ago. We observe no divergence between terrestrial and marine 14C datasets implying limited impact of freshwater hosing on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, an ice-rafted debris event (SA2) in Southern Ocean waters appears to be associated with dramatic synchronous warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Using a fully coupled climate system model we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations and find that a southern salinity anomaly can trigger low-latitude temperature changes through barotropic and baroclinic oceanic waves that are atmospherically propagated globally via a Rossby wave train, consistent with contemporary modelling studies. Our results suggest the Antarctic ice sheets and Southern Ocean dynamics may have contributed to some global climatic changes through rapid ocean-atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for past (and future) change.

  3. Late-glacial climatic oscillation in Atlantic Canada equivalent to the Allerod/younger Dryas event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mott, R.J.; Grant, D.R.; Stea, R.; Occhietti, S.

    1986-09-18

    Attempts to relate late-glacial events in northeastern North America to the well-documented climato- and chrono-stratigraphy of Europe and the British Isles have not been considered convincing because the evidence presented was from isolated sites, and could therefore be interpreted as local fluctuations not related to a general, widespread climatic change. However, recent palynologial studies in northeastern North America postulating a late-glacial climatic oscillation have caused renewed interest in relating such an oscillation to the Allerod/younger Dryas event. The authors have extended their preliminary results from Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, and here present the evidence for a climatic event in Atlantic Canada. This event involved a warming trend before 11,000 yr BP that was interrupted by a cold period which persisted until the abrupt Holocene warming at approx.10,000 yr BP. They propose a possible mechanism to link this event with that of Europe. 41 references, 3 figures, 1 table.

  4. Effects of melting ice sheets and orbital forcing on the early Holocene warming in extratropical Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Renssen, H.; Seppä, H.

    2015-11-01

    The early Holocene is a critical period for climate change, as it marked the final transition from the last deglaciation to the relatively warm and stable Holocene. It is characterized by a warming trend that has been registered in numerous proxy records. This climatic warming was accompanied by major adjustments in different climate components, including the decaying of ice sheets in cryosphere, the perturbation of circulation in the ocean, the expansion of vegetation (over the high latitude) in biosphere. Previous studies have analyzed the influence of the demise of the ice sheets and other forcings on climate system. However, the climate response to the forcings together with the internal feedbacks before 9 ka remains not fully comprehended. In this study, we therefore disentangle how these forcings contributed to climate change during the earliest part of Holocene (11.5-7 ka) by employing the LOVECLIM climate model for both equilibrium and transient experiments. The results of our equilibrium experiments for 11.5 ka reveal that the annual mean temperature at the onset of the Holocene was lower than in the preindustrial era in the Northern extratropics, except in Alaska. The magnitude of this cool anomaly varies regionally as a response to varying climate forcings and diverse mechanisms. In eastern N America and NW Europe the temperatures throughout the whole year were 2-5 °C lower than in the preindustrial control, reaching the maximum cooling as here the climate was strongly influenced by the cooling effects of the ice sheets. This cooling of the ice-sheet surface was caused both by the enhanced surface albedo and by the orography of the ice sheets. For Siberia, a small deviation (-0.5-1.5 °C) in summer temperature and 0.5-1.5 °C cooler annual climate compared to the preindustrial run were caused by the counteraction of the high albedo associated with the tundra vegetation which was more southward extended at 11.5 ka than in the preindustrial period and the

  5. 75 FR 10450 - Fisheries of the Northeastern United States; Atlantic Bluefish Fisheries; 2010 Atlantic Bluefish...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-08

    ...). Alternative 3, the no action alternative, is considered to be synonymous with status quo management measures... a given phase in the rebuilding period, or the status quo F, whichever is less. According to... alternatives (including a no action/status quo alternative) for 2010 Atlantic bluefish fishery. All...

  6. On tropical cyclone frequency and the warm pool area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. E. Benestad

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The proposition that the rate of tropical cyclogenesis increases with the size of the "warm pool" is tested by comparing the seasonal variation of the warm pool area with the seasonality of the number of tropical cyclones. An analysis based on empirical data from the Northern Hemisphere is presented, where the warm pool associated with tropical cyclone activity is defined as the area, A, enclosed by the 26.5°C SST isotherm. Similar analysis was applied to the temperature weighted area AT with similar results.

    An intriguing non-linear relationship of high statistical significance was found between the temperature weighted area in the North Atlantic and the North-West Pacific on the one hand and the number of cyclones, N, in the same ocean basin on the other, but this pattern was not found over the North Indian Ocean. A simple statistical model was developed, based on the historical relationship between N and A. The simple model was then validated against independent inter-annual variations in the seasonal cyclone counts in the North Atlantic, but the correlation was not statistically significant in the North-West Pacific. No correlation, however, was found between N and A in the North Indian Ocean.

    A non-linear relationship between the cyclone number and temperature weighted area may in some ocean basins explain both why there has not been any linear trend in the number of cyclones over time as well as the recent upturn in the number of Atlantic hurricanes. The results also suggest that the notion of the number of tropical cyclones being insensitive to the area A is a misconception.

  7. Early Holocene variability in the Arctic Gateway - High-resolution records reflecting Atlantic Water advection and ice coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielhagen, Robert F.; Bauch, Henning A.; Maudrich, Martin; Not, Christelle; Telesinski, Maciej M.; Werner, Kirstin

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic Gateway between Greenland and Svalbard is the main passage for the advection of Atlantic Water to the Arctic Ocean. Water temperature and intensity of this advection largely determine the degree of ice coverage which is fed by sea ice export from the north. Supported by a maximum in insolation, the Early Holocene was a period of extraordinarily strong advection and relatively high near-surface water temperatures in the eastern Nordic Seas (cf. Risebrobakken et al., 2011, Paleoceanography v. 26). Here we present a synthesis of radiocarbon-dated records from the northern and western part of this area, reaching from the SW Greenland Sea (73°N) to the Yermak Plateau (81°N) and revealing temporal and spatial differences in the development of the so-called Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM). In the northern part of this region, the HTM started ca. 11-10.5 ka as indicated by rapidly increasing amounts of subpolar planktic foraminifers in the sediments. In the eastern Fram Strait and on the Yermak Plateau, our records of (sub)millennial scale resolution show that the maximum influx terminated already 2,000 years later (9-8 ka). Most likely, this development went along with a N-S relocation of the sea ice margin. According to the current stratigraphic model for a core with submillennial-scale resolution from Vesterisbanken seamount (73°N) in the Greenland Sea, the timing was different there. Increasing total amounts of planktic foraminifers in the sediment indicate an early (11-10 ka) reduction in sea ice coverage also in this region. However, evidence from subpolar planktic foraminifers for maximum Atlantic Water advection is younger (9-6 ka) than in the north. Apparently, the site in the SW Greenland Sea was affected by Atlantic Water in the Greenland Gyre that decoupled from the northward flowing Norwegian Atlantic Current/Westspitsbergen Current south of the Fram Strait. Thus, in a suite of events, strong Atlantic Water advection first affected the

  8. How predictable are equatorial Atlantic surface winds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Ingo; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin

    2017-04-01

    Sensitivity tests with the SINTEX-F general circulation model (GCM) as well as experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the extent to which sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the variability and predictability of monthly mean surface winds in the equatorial Atlantic. In the SINTEX-F experiments, a control experiment with prescribed observed SST for the period 1982-2014 is modified by inserting climatological values in certain regions, thereby eliminating SST anomalies. When SSTs are set to climatology in the tropical Atlantic only (30S to 30N), surface wind variability over the equatorial Atlantic (5S-5N) decreases by about 40% in April-May-June (AMJ). This suggests that about 60% of surface wind variability is due to either internal atmospheric variability or SSTs anomalies outside the tropical Atlantic. A further experiment with climatological SSTs in the equatorial Pacific indicates that another 10% of variability in AMJ may be due to remote influences from that basin. Experiments from the CMIP5 archive, in which climatological SSTs are prescribed globally, tend to confirm the results from SINTEX-F but show a wide spread. In some models, the equatorial Atlantic surface wind variability decreases by more than 90%, while in others it even increases. Overall, the results suggest that about 50-60% of surface wind variance in AMJ is predictable, while the rest is due to internal atmospheric variability. Other months show significantly lower predictability. The relatively strong internal variability as well as the influence of remote SSTs suggest a limited role for coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in equatorial Atlantic variability.

  9. Warm storage for arc magmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barboni, Mélanie; Boehnke, Patrick; Schmitt, Axel K; Harrison, T Mark; Shane, Phil; Bouvier, Anne-Sophie; Baumgartner, Lukas

    2016-12-06

    Felsic magmatic systems represent the vast majority of volcanic activity that poses a threat to human life. The tempo and magnitude of these eruptions depends on the physical conditions under which magmas are retained within the crust. Recently the case has been made that volcanic reservoirs are rarely molten and only capable of eruption for durations as brief as 1,000 years following magma recharge. If the "cold storage" model is generally applicable, then geophysical detection of melt beneath volcanoes is likely a sign of imminent eruption. However, some arc volcanic centers have been active for tens of thousands of years and show evidence for the continual presence of melt. To address this seeming paradox, zircon geochronology and geochemistry from both the frozen lava and the cogenetic enclaves they host from the Soufrière Volcanic Center (SVC), a long-lived volcanic complex in the Lesser Antilles arc, were integrated to track the preeruptive thermal and chemical history of the magma reservoir. Our results show that the SVC reservoir was likely eruptible for periods of several tens of thousands of years or more with punctuated eruptions during these periods. These conclusions are consistent with results from other arc volcanic reservoirs and suggest that arc magmas are generally stored warm. Thus, the presence of intracrustal melt alone is insufficient as an indicator of imminent eruption, but instead represents the normal state of magma storage underneath dormant volcanoes.

  10. North Atlantic Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, R.; Bryan, K.; Schott, F.

    The intensity of the North Atlantic winddriven and thermohaline circulation and the close proximity of many oceanographic installations make the North Atlantic a particularly favored region of the world ocean from the standpoint of research in ocean circulation. Recent increases in available data and advances in numerical modeling techniques served as the impetus to convene a joint workshop of modelers and observers working on the North Atlantic with the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Working Group (WG) 68 (“North Atlantic Circulation”). Goals of the workshop were to provide an update on data sets and models and to discuss the poleward heat flux problem and possible monitoring strategies. The joint Workshop/SCOR WG-68 meeting was convened by F. Schott (chairman of the working group; Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, Fla.), K. Bryan (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (NOAA/GFDL)), and R. Molinari (NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML)).

  11. Atlantic menhaden adult tagging study

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Atlantic menhaden are a schooling forage fish species, which are subject to a large commercial purse seine fishery. Atlantic menhaden are harvested for reduction...

  12. Greenhouse Warming Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bent Erik

    2016-01-01

    The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence the gree......The changing greenhouse effect caused by natural and anthropogenic causes is explained and efforts to model the behavior of the near-surface constituents of the Earth's land, ocean and atmosphere are discussed. Emissions of various substances and other aspects of human activity influence...... the greenhouse warming, and the impacts of the warming may again impact the wellbeing of human societies. Thus physical modeling of the near-surface ocean-soil-atmosphere system cannot be carried out without an idea of the development of human activities, which is done by scenario analysis. The interactive...... nature of the natural and the human system calls for an extremely complex analysis, in order to predict the outcome of various proposed changes in human behavior. This includes halting activities that most influence the climate and finding workable alternatives to these activities, or adapting to climate...

  13. The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin; Karl, Thomas R.; Xie, Shang-Ping; Nieves, Veronica; Tung, Ka-Kit; Roemmich, Dean

    2016-11-01

    Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.

  14. Warming: mechanism and latitude dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yury

    2010-05-01

    deformations [1]. Thus the part of energy of deformations passes in heat by virtue of dissipation properties of the mantle. Than more intensively oscillations of the core, the more amplitudes of these oscillations, the occur the specified thermal transformations more intensively. As relative displacements of the core have cyclic character, because of cyclic influences on the core-mantle system of external celestial bodies also a formation of heat flows and warmed plume materials (substances) will have also cyclic character. In particular orbital perturbations with Milankovitch's periods in 100 kyr, 41 kyr, etc. will be precisely reflected in variations of the specified thermal flows and, accordingly, a planetary climate. In it the essence of occurrence of cycles of congelations on the Earth [3] consists. If during any period of time the core behaves passively, amplitudes of its oscillations are small the thermal flows to a surface of a planet will be decrease. This geodynamic conditions corresponds to the periods of a cold snap. And on the contrary, if the core and mantle interact actively and make significant oscillations the thermal flows to a surface of a planet accrues. This geodynamic state corresponds to the periods of warming. At drift of the core to the north and its oscillations with accrueing amplitude (for example, in present period) submission of heat in the top layers of the mantle will accrue. It is warmly allocated in all layers of the mantle deformed by an attraction of the drifting and oscillating core. But a base layer is the layer D" ("kitchen of plume-tectonics"). As we know the two mechanisms work for warm redistribution into the Earth. First is a mechanism of convection. In our geodynamical model it has forced nature and is organized and controlled by gravitational action of external celestial bodies and as result has cyclical character. Second mechanism is a plume mechanism which organizes the warmed masses redistributions in higher levels of the mantle

  15. An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

    2017-05-01

    Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

  16. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A.; Olsen, Jeanine L.; Hoarau, Galice

    2013-01-01

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important intertid

  17. Nearshore marine benthic invertebrates moving north along the U.S. Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerous species have shifted their ranges north in response to global warming. We examined 21 years (1990-2010) of marine benthic invertebrate data from the National Coastal Assessment’s monitoring of nearshore waters along the US Atlantic coast. Data came from three bioge...

  18. Climate change impact on seaweed meadow distribution in the North Atlantic rocky intertidal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jueterbock, Alexander; Tyberghein, Lennert; Verbruggen, Heroen; Coyer, James A.; Olsen, Jeanine L.; Hoarau, Galice

    The North-Atlantic has warmed faster than all other ocean basins and climate change scenarios predict sea surface temperature isotherms to shift up to 600km northwards by the end of the 21st century. The pole-ward shift has already begun for many temperate seaweed species that are important

  19. Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

    2014-01-23

    In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

  20. The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fred Kucharski

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña event leads to rising (sinking motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

  1. Indian-atlantic transfer of thermocline water at the agulhas retroflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, A L

    1985-03-01

    During November and December 1983, two anticyclonic eddies were observed west of the Agulhas Retroflection, apparently spawned at the retroflection. The western eddy, centered 300 kilometers southwest of Cape Town, has a winter cooled core encircled by warm Indian Ocean water. Between Cape Town and the "Cape Town Eddy" is a net geostrophic transport of Indian Ocean thermocline water (14 x 10(6) cubic meters per second) into the South Atlantic Ocean. This circulation configuration, similar to that observed by earlier researchers, suggests that Indian-Atlantic thermocline exchange is a common occurrence. Such a warmwater link between the Atlantic and Indian oceans would strongly influence global climate patterns. The Indian Ocean water is warmer than the adjacent South Atlantic water and thus represents a heat input of 2.3 x 10(13) to 47 x 10(13) watts into the Atlantic. The large uncertainty arises from the unknown partition between two possible routes for the return flow from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean: cooler South Atlantic thermocline water or much colder North Atlantic Deep Water. In either case, interocean mass and heat exchange of thermocline water at the Agulhas Retroflection is a distinct likelihood.

  2. Response of the Asian Summer Monsoon to Weakening of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lu Riyu; Buwen DONG

    2008-01-01

    Various paleocllimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous sub-orbital time-scale events,,and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic..This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic 0cean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic.The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation(THC)due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon.The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon,and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role.Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific,and the atmosphere-ocean jinteraction in the tropical Pacific and Indian 0pcean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.

  3. Glacier response to North Atlantic climate variability during the Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. L. Balascio

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Small glaciers and ice caps respond rapidly to climate variations and records of their past extent provide information on the natural envelope of past climate variability. Millennial-scale trends in Holocene glacier size are well documented and correspond with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. However, there is only sparse and fragmentary evidence for higher frequency variations in glacier size because in many Northern Hemisphere regions glacier advances of the past few hundred years were the most extensive and destroyed the geomorphic evidence of ice growth and retreat during the past several thousand years. Thus, most glacier records have been of limited use for investigating centennial scale climate forcing and feedback mechanisms. Here we report a continuous record of glacier activity for the last 9.5 ka from southeast Greenland, derived from high-resolution measurements on a proglacial lake sediment sequence. Physical and geochemical parameters show that the glaciers responded to previously documented Northern Hemisphere climatic excursions, including the "8.2 ka" cooling event, the Holocene Thermal Maximum, Neoglacial cooling, and 20th Century warming. In addition, the sediments indicate centennial-scale oscillations in glacier size during the late Holocene. Beginning at 4.1 ka, a series of abrupt glacier advances occurred, each lasting ~100 years and followed by a period of retreat, that were superimposed on a gradual trend toward larger glacier size. Thus, while declining summer insolation caused long-term cooling and glacier expansions during the late Holocene, climate system dynamics resulted in repeated episodes of glacier expansion and retreat on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. These episodes coincided with ice rafting events in the North Atlantic Ocean and periods of regional ice cap expansion, which confirms their regional significance and indicates that considerable glacier activity on these timescales is a

  4. The European climate under a 2 degrees C global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Vautard, R.; A. Gobiet; S. Sobolowski; Kjellström, E; Stegehuis, A.; Watkiss, P.; Mendlik, T.; Landgren, O.; Nikulin, G.; Teichmann, C.; D. Jacob

    2014-01-01

    A global warming of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresp...

  5. South Atlantic island record reveals a South Atlantic response to the 8.2 kyr event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ljung

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the most distinct climate fluctuations during the Holocene is the short and rapid event centred around 8200 years ago, the 8.2 kyr event, which was most likely triggered by glacial melt-water forcing from the receding Laurentide ice-sheet. Evidence for this cooling has primarily been reported from sites around the North Atlantic, but an increasing number of observations imply a more wide-spread occurrence. Palaeoclimate archives from the Southern Hemisphere have hitherto failed to uncover a distinct climatic anomaly associated with the 8.2 kyr event. Here we present a lake sediment record from Nightingale Island in the central South Atlantic showing enhanced precipitation between 8275 and 8025 cal. yrs BP, most likely as a consequence of increased sea surface temperature (SST. We show that this is consistent with climate model projections of a warming of the South Atlantic in response to reduced north-ward energy transport during the 8.2 kyr event.

  6. Competent and Warm?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Karolina; Rakić, Tamara; Steffens, Melanie C

    2017-01-01

    Most research on ethnicity has focused on visual cues. However, accents are strong social cues that can match or contradict visual cues. We examined understudied reactions to people whose one cue suggests one ethnicity, whereas the other cue contradicts it. In an experiment conducted in Germany, job candidates spoke with an accent either congruent or incongruent with their (German or Turkish) appearance. Based on ethnolinguistic identity theory, we predicted that accents would be strong cues for categorization and evaluation. Based on expectancy violations theory we expected that incongruent targets would be evaluated more extremely than congruent targets. Both predictions were confirmed: accents strongly influenced perceptions and Turkish-looking German-accented targets were perceived as most competent of all targets (and additionally most warm). The findings show that bringing together visual and auditory information yields a more complete picture of the processes underlying impression formation.

  7. Atlantic gyres variability during the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignot, Juliette; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Khodri, Myriam; Ezat, Ullah; Jacob, Jérémy; Hall, Ian; Servonnat, Jérome; Xuang Truong, Minh

    2010-05-01

    We investigate the low frequency variability of the Atlantic subpolar and subtropical gyres over the last millennium. First, a compilation of the several recent proxy recontructions (e.g. Sicre et al. 2008, Richter et al. 2009 for the subpolar gyre, Mc Gregor et al. 2007 and unpublished data from Sicre et al. in the subtropical gyre) will allow to assess the low frequency hydrographic variability in key areas related to the horizontal circulation in the Atlantic and the upper limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Second, we use a simulation of the IPSL model to explore the link between the gyres circulation and the local hydrography. In a simulation reproducing the climate over the last millennium, we assess the low frequency variability of the gyres circulation over this period and the role of the external forcing and low frequency atmospheric variability in the northern North Atlantic. The aim is to help the interpretation of the data cited above at the basin-scale.

  8. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael A Magris

    Full Text Available Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST data, integrating both observed (1985-2009 and projected (2010-2099 time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  9. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magris, Rafael A; Heron, Scott F; Pressey, Robert L

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985-2009) and projected (2010-2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming.

  10. Conservation Planning for Coral Reefs Accounting for Climate Warming Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magris, Rafael A.; Heron, Scott F.; Pressey, Robert L.

    2015-01-01

    Incorporating warming disturbances into the design of marine protected areas (MPAs) is fundamental to developing appropriate conservation actions that confer coral reef resilience. We propose an MPA design approach that includes spatially- and temporally-varying sea-surface temperature (SST) data, integrating both observed (1985–2009) and projected (2010–2099) time-series. We derived indices of acute (time under reduced ecosystem function following short-term events) and chronic thermal stress (rate of warming) and combined them to delineate thermal-stress regimes. Coral reefs located on the Brazilian coast were used as a case study because they are considered a conservation priority in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. We show that all coral reef areas in Brazil have experienced and are projected to continue to experience chronic warming, while acute events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. We formulated quantitative conservation objectives for regimes of thermal stress. Based on these objectives, we then evaluated if/how they are achieved in existing Brazilian MPAs and identified priority areas where additional protection would reinforce resilience. Our results show that, although the current system of MPAs incorporates locations within some of our thermal-stress regimes, historical and future thermal refugia along the central coast are completely unprotected. Our approach is applicable to other marine ecosystems and adds to previous marine planning for climate change in two ways: (i) by demonstrating how to spatially configure MPAs that meet conservation objectives for warming disturbance using spatially- and temporally-explicit data; and (ii) by strategically allocating different forms of spatial management (MPA types) intended to mitigate warming impacts and also enhance future resistance to climate warming. PMID:26535586

  11. Suborbital Holocene Climate Variability over Continental Western Eurasia Coupled with Poleward Heat Transport to the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, J. L.; Lachniet, M. S.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

    2016-12-01

    The centennial-scale coupling between the Holocene paleoclimate of Eurasia and ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the North Atlantic sector remains weakly understood, due to a paucity of high-resolution data from the continental interior. To investigate these links, we detrended a composite record of stalagmite δ18O from Kinderlinskaya Cave (southern Urals Mountains), which exhibits long-term warming from 11.7 ka to present. The chronologies of two stalagmites were constrained by 29 U-Th dates obtained through MC-ICP-MS analysis. Stable-isotope analysis at 0.5-mm resolution along the growth axes resulted in an average sampling frequency of 12.5 years. Stalagmite δ18O reflects multidecadal changes in the δ18O of winter half-year precipitation, which is highly sensitive to AO/NAO-like shifts in the strength and position of mid-latitude westerlies. Spectral density and wavelet analysis of the detrended record revealed significant periodicities near 2.4 ka, 1.4 ka, and 1.0 ka, which are common in northern hemispheric paleoclimate records and possibly related to solar and oceanic forcing during the Holocene. Coherent hemispheric coupling of continental and oceanic paleoclimate at suborbital timescales is demonstrated by comparison of our record with reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and meridional flow strength in the North Atlantic sector. Specifically, SST at cores MD-23258 and LO09-14 in the Barents Sea and Reykjanes Ridge, respectively, exhibit opposite phasing during the Holocene, due to alternating strength between the eastern and western branches of the North Atlantic Current, a major component of AMOC. Estimating the SST gradient between these sites as a proxy for poleward heat transport to the northeastern Atlantic Ocean, we find a strong covariance with detrended stalagmite δ18O. This relationship suggests that persistent strengthening (weakening) of wintertime westerlies, analogous to positive (negative) phases of the AO/NAO, was forced by

  12. Response of winter North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    Climate variability in Europe in winter is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. These are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and mid latitudes. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it is relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex feedbacks acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains open. The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past and future decades and to analyze the contributions of the different external forcings (natural and anthropogenic) versus the internal variability. On this purpose, we use the Detection and Attribution (D&A) simulations performed with the coupled model CNRM-CM5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, a tracking scheme based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is conducted. We show that the coupled model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the tracks pathways comparing to several atmospheric reanalysis products. In the recent historical period (1950-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. Even if the role of internal variability is important in the last decades (the

  13. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES DURING THE MEDIEVAL WARM PERIOD AND THE LITTLE ICE AGE IN OTINDAG SANDLAND BY OSL DATING%光释光测年揭示浑善达克沙地中世纪暖期和小冰期环境变迁与人类活动的关系

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张小艳; 周亚利; 庞奖励; 鹿化煜; 黄春长; 周亮; 顾洪亮

    2012-01-01

    Otindag sandland is located in the middle of Inner Mongolia Plateau ( 112°22' ~ 117°57'N, 41°56' ~ 44°24'E) ,with its present environment is arid to semiarid. The climate is mainly controlled by the East Asian monsoon atmospheric circulation in this region. The earth surface processes,such as dune systems,are sensitive to both climatic changes and human impacts. In order to better understand the interaction of these factors in Otindag sandland during the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, optically stimulated luminescence dating(OSL) has been used to obtain ages of five typical dune sediment sequences, which are LQD (42. 26°N, 116. 13 °E) , S308-132km( 42. 39°N, 115. 39°E), HSZN (42. 08°N, 116.44°E), DLGES (43. 56°N, 115. 68°E) and JPW-A (43.24°N,117.45°E) ,with the thickness as 2. 0m, 1. 4m, 3. 0m,2. 2m and 0. 8m, respectively. OSL dating on quartz grains at the size of 90 - 150u,m were carried out by using the single aliquot regenerative-dose ( SAR) protocol. Combined with the characteristics of grain-size distribution, magnetic susceptibility, ignition loss from the sediment and the pottery sherds which were found in LQD and JPW-A sediment sequences, paleoenvironmental changes were reconstructed since 2ka in Otindag sandland. Sandy soil with greater value of silt and clay content, magnetic susceptibility,and loss on ignition were developed in the episode of 1.45 ~1. lOka and 0. 83 -0. 58ka, while yellow sand layer with more coarse grain, less silt and clay and magnetic susceptibility as well as loss on ignition were developed at 1. 10 -0. 83ka and 0. 58 ~0. 20ka. The development of sandy soil represents wetter and wanner conditions, leading to the increase of vegetation coverage and much less aeolian activity. These phases were the warming periods of Tang Dynasty and the Yuan Dynasty in Chinese history correlating with the Medieval Warming Period in Europe. In that time, the ideal natural environment helped the great development of the

  14. Abrupt transitions to a cold North Atlantic in the late Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford; Larsen, Darren; Florian, Christopher; Pendleton, Simon

    2015-04-01

    The Holocene provides a time interval with boundary conditions similar to present, except for greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent high-resolution Northern Hemisphere records show general cooling related to orbital terms through the late Holocene, but also highly non-linear abrupt departures of centennial scale summer cold periods. These abrupt departures are evident within the last two millennia (the transitions between the Roman Warm Period (RWP, ~2,000 yr BP), the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, ~500-900 years AD), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 1000-1200 years AD) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, ~1300-1900 AD). A series of new, high-resolution and securely dated lake records from Iceland also show abrupt climate departures over the past 2 ka, characterized by shifts to persistent cold summers and an expanded cryosphere. Despite substantial differences in catchment-specific processes that dominate the lake records, the multi-proxy reconstructions are remarkably similar. After nearly a millennium with little evidence of significant climate shifts, the beginning of the first millennium AD is characterized by renewed summer cooling that leads to an expanding cryosphere. Slow summer cooling over the first five centuries is succeeded by widespread substantial cooling, with evidence for substantial expansion of glaciers and ice caps throughout our field areas between 530 and 900 AD, and an accompanying reduction in vegetation cover across much of Iceland that led to widespread landscape instability. These data suggest that the North Atlantic system began a transition into a new cold state early in the first millennium AD, which was amplified after 500 AD, until it was interrupted by warmer Medieval times between ~1000 and 1250 AD. Although severe soil erosion in Iceland is frequently associated with human settlement dated to 871 ±2 AD our reconstructions indicate that soil erosion began several centuries before settlement, during the DACP, whereas for several centuries

  15. Phytoplankton dynamics and periodicity in two cascading warm ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-09-04

    Sep 4, 1991 ... 100 'units' of the numerically dominant taxon on each sample date had been counted. ... rankings of colony size were noted. Taxa were routinely iden- ...... in Loch Logan, an urban impoundment. Water SA 31 385-392.

  16. Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

    2011-04-01

    Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

  17. On the configurations of the Atlantic Niño phenomenon under negative AMO phases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Rey, Marta; Rodríguez de Fonseca, Belen; Polo, Irene; Losada, Teresa; Lazar, Alban

    2016-04-01

    An air-sea coupled mode of inter-annual variability akin to ENSO emerges in the tropical Atlantic basin, named as Atlantic Niño. The teleconnections of the Atlantic Niño phenomenon have changed during recent decades, coinciding with an alteration of its spatial configuration. Previous studies have suggested that the background state could favour particular atmospheric forcings and could also contribute to generate different variability modes. Here, we demonstrate that two different Atlantic Niño patterns coexist in the tropical Atlantic basin during certain decades, coinciding with a negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The leading mode, Basin-Wide (BW) Atlantic Niño, is characterized by positive SST anomalies covering the entire tropical Atlantic and the second mode, Dipolar (D) Atlantic Niño, presents an equatorial warming flanked by negative SST anomalies in north and south Tropical Atlantic. These modes are driven by different wind patterns, controlled by the Subtropical High Pressure Systems. The BW-Atlantic Niño is preceded by a weakening of both Azores and Sta Helena High, which induces a general reduction of the tropical trades and anomalous wind convergence in the equatorial band. On the other hand, the D-Atlantic Niño is associated with a strengthening of Azores High and a weakening of Sta Helena High, given rise to a meridional Sea Level Pressure (SLP) gradient that intensifies the subtropical trades and generate anomalous trans-equatorial winds along the equatorial band. Both modes seem to be forced by an ENSO-like signal emanating from the Pacific, but with different atmospheric response over the Atlantic. It could be attributed to the changes in the mean state during negative AMO phases. For these decades, shallower thermocline conditions, together with an increase of the oceanic variability (SST and thermocline) in the tropical Atlantic could contribute to the generation of both Atlantic Niño modes. Furthermore, a

  18. Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide in IAP/LASG Climate System Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; YU Rucong; LIU Xiying; GUO Yufu; YU Yongqiang; ZHANG Xuehong

    2005-01-01

    Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circula- tion (THC) to global warming is examined by using the climate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-to- equator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin, indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic "conveyor belt" decelerating.

  19. Decadal variability in the Eastern North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köllner, Manuela; Klein, Birgit; Kieke, Dagmar; Klein, Holger; Rhein, Monika; Roessler, Achim; Denker, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    The strong warming and salinification of the Eastern North Atlantic starting in the mid 1990s has been attributed to a westward contraction of the subpolar gyre and stronger inflow of waters from the subtropical gyre. Temporal changes in the shape and strength of the two gyres have been related to the major mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic sector, the NAO. Hydrographic conditions along the Northwest European shelf are thus the result of different processes such as variations in transports, varying relative contributions of water masses from the two gyres and property trends in the source water masses. We examine the decadal variability in the eastern North Atlantic based on Argo data from 2000-2015 and have constructed time series for four water masses (Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), Intermediate Water (IW), upper Labrador Sea Water (uLSW) and deep Labrador Sea Water (dLSW)) at selected locations along the Northwest European shelf. Data from the Rockall Trough and the Iceland Basin are chosen to represent advective pathways in the subpolar gyre at two major branches of the North Atlantic Current towards the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. Temporal variability of subtropical waters transported northward along the eastern boundary is studied at Goban Spur around 48°N. The Argo data are extended in time with long-term hydrographic observations such as the Extended Ellet Line data and other climatological sources in the region. For the study of transport fluctuations time series from the RACE (Regional circulation and Global change) program (2012-2015) and predecessor programs have been used. These programs have monitored the subpolar gyre in the western basin and provide time series of transports and hydrographic anomalies from moored instruments at the western flank of the Mid Atlantic Ridge (MAR). First results show that the temperatures and salinities remained at high levels for the upper waters (SPMW and IW) until 2010 and have been decreasing since

  20. Atmospheric CO2 and climate on millennial time scales during the last glacial period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward J

    2008-10-03

    Reconstructions of ancient atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations help us better understand how the global carbon cycle and climate are linked. We compared CO2 variations on millennial time scales between 20,000 and 90,000 years ago with an Antarctic temperature proxy and records of abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere. CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature were positively correlated over millennial-scale climate cycles, implying a strong connection to Southern Ocean processes. Evidence from marine sediment proxies indicates that CO2 concentration rose most rapidly when North Atlantic Deep Water shoaled and stratification in the Southern Ocean was reduced. These increases in CO2 concentration occurred during stadial (cold) periods in the Northern Hemisphere, several thousand years before abrupt warming events in Greenland.

  1. Species-specific vulnerability of Arctic copepods to oil contamination and global warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinh, Khuong Van; Nielsen, Torkel Gissel

    Arctic ecosystems are predicted to have more severe effects from global warming as during the last decades the temperatures have increased in this region at a rate of 2-4 times higher than the global average. In addition, oil exploitation and shipping activities in the Arctic are predicted...... to increase under global warming as the result of the retreat of sea ice, posing the risk of oil contamination. It is poorly known how cold adapted copepods in the Arctic deal with the combined effects of global warming and oil exposure. To address this, we exposed females of two copepods species Calanus...... of temperatures. Notably, exposure to high pyrene resulted in ca. 70% of mortality in C. finmarchicus, the species with North Atlantic Origin, that was two times higher than the mortality observed for C. glacialis, the true Arctic species. These results suggest that extreme temperature under global warming...

  2. The deepening of the Atlantic water in the Lofoten Basin of the Norwegian Sea, demonstrated by using an active reduced gravity model

    OpenAIRE

    Orvik, Kjell Arild

    2004-01-01

    The Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC) as a poleward eastern boundary current is to be considered as the northern limb of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the North Atlantic (MOC). It transports warm and saline Atlantic water (AW) northward toward the Arctic Ocean, before cooling and mixing with cold and low saline water masses return it to the North Atlantic to contribute in the MOC. In this study we focus on the AW in the Lofoten Basin (LB) of the Norwegian Sea (NS), where it occupi...

  3. Atmospheric transmission of North Atlantic Heinrich events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, S.W.; Clark, P.U.; Bartlein, P.J.; Mix, A.C.; Pisias, N.J.

    1999-01-01

    We model the response of the climate system during Heinrich event 2 (H2) by employing an atmospheric general circulation model, using boundary conditions based on the concept of a "canonical" Heinrich event. The canonical event is initialized with a full-height Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) and CLIMAP sea surface temperatures (SSTs), followed by lowering of the LIS, then warming of North Atlantic SSTs. Our modeled temperature and wind fields exhibit spatially variable responses over the Northern Hemisphere at each stage of the H2 event. In some regions the climatic responses are additive, whereas in other regions they cancel or are of opposite sign, suggesting that Heinrich event climatic variations may have left complex signatures in geologic records. We find variations in the tropical water balance and the mass balance of ice sheets, and implications for variations in terrestrial methane production from the contraction of northern permafrost regions and the expansion of tropical wetlands. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Warm Jupiters from Secular Planet–Planet Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrovich, Cristobal; Tremaine, Scott

    2016-10-01

    Most warm Jupiters (gas-giant planets with 0.1 {{au}}≲ a≲ 1 au) have pericenter distances that are too large for significant orbital migration by tidal friction. We study the possibility that the warm Jupiters are undergoing secular eccentricity oscillations excited by an outer companion (a planet or star) in an eccentric and/or mutually inclined orbit. In this model, the warm Jupiters migrate periodically, in the high-eccentricity phase of the oscillation, but are typically observed at lower eccentricities. We show that in this model the steady-state eccentricity distribution of the warm Jupiters is approximately flat, which is consistent with the observed distribution if we restrict the sample to warm Jupiters with detected outer planetary companions. The eccentricity distribution of warm Jupiters without companions exhibits a peak at e≲ 0.2 that must be explained by a different formation mechanism. Based on a population synthesis study, we find that high-eccentricity migration excited by an outer planetary companion (1) can account for ∼ 20 % of the warm Jupiters and most of the warm Jupiters with e≳ 0.4; and (2) can produce most of the observed population of hot Jupiters, with a semimajor axis distribution that matches the observations, but fails to account adequately for ∼ 60 % of hot Jupiters with projected obliquities ≲ 20^\\circ . Thus ∼ 20 % of the warm Jupiters and ∼ 60 % of the hot Jupiters can be produced by high-eccentricity migration. We also provide predictions for the expected mutual inclinations and spin-orbit angles of the planetary systems with hot and warm Jupiters produced by high-eccentricity migration.

  5. Committed warming inferred from observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, Thorsten; Pincus, Robert

    2017-09-01

    Due to the lifetime of CO2, the thermal inertia of the oceans, and the temporary impacts of short-lived aerosols and reactive greenhouse gases, the Earth’s climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil-fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions as studied previously using climate models. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5 K (0.9-3.6, 5th-95th percentile) at equilibrium, and of 1.3 K (0.9-2.3) within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1 K (0.7-1.8). In the latter case there is a 13% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5 K target set in Paris. Regular updates of these observationally constrained committed warming estimates, although simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and the understanding of the limitations of the framework is advanced.

  6. The Role of African Easterly Wave on Dust Transport and the Interaction Between Saharan Dust Layer and Atlantic ITCZ During Boreal Summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the relationships among Saharan dust outbreak and transport, African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jet (AEJ) and associated convective activities of Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) using Cloudsat-Calipso, MODIS and MERRA data. We find that a major Saharan dust outbreak is associated with the formation of a westward propagating strong cyclone around 15-25N over the western part northern Saharan. The strong cyclonic flow mobilizes and lifts the dust from the desert surface to a high elevation. As the cyclone propagate westward, it transports a thick elevated dust layer between 900 -500 hPa from the African continent to the eastern Atlantic. Cloudiness is reduced within the warm, dry dusty layer, but enhanced underneath it, possibly due to the presence of a shallow inversion layer over the marine boundary layer. The dust outbreak is linked to enhanced deep convection in the northern part of Atlantic ITCZ, abutting the southern flank of the dust layer, and a strengthening of the northward flank of the AEJ. As the dust layer spreads westward, it loses elevation and becomes increasing diffused as it reaches the central and western Atlantic. Using band pass filtered EOF analysis of MERRA winds, we find that AEWs propagating westward along two principal tracks, centered at 15-25N and 5-10N respectively. The easterly waves in the northern track are highly correlated with major dust outbreak over North Africa and associated with slower moving systems, with a quasi-periodicity of 6-9 day. On the other hand, easterly waves along the southern track are faster, with quasi-periodicity of 3-5 days. These faster easterly waves are closely tied to rainfall/cloud variations along the Atlantic ITCZ. Dust transport along the southern track by the faster waves generally leads rainfall/cloud anomalies in the same region by one or two days, suggesting the southern tracks of dust outbreak are regions of strong interaction between

  7. The evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation for the last 700 years inferred from D/H isotopes in the sedimentary record of Lake Azul (Azores archipelago, Portugal).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubio de Ingles, Maria Jesus; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Sáez, Alberto; José Pueyo, Juan; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Gonçalves, Vitor M.; Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo; Sánchez López, Guiomar; Francus, Pierre; Giralt, Santiago

    2015-04-01

    The δD plant leaf wax variations provide insights on precipitation and evaporation evolution through time. This proxy has been used to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate mode since this mode rules most of the climate variability in the central North Atlantic area. A total lipid extraction preparation and the correspondent analyses in the IRMS have been done for 100 samples from the uppermost 1.5 m of the sedimentary infill of Lake Azul (Azores archipelago, Portugal). According to the chronological model, established by 210Pb profile and 4 AMS 14C dates, this record contains the environmental history of the last 730 years. The reconstructed precipitation variations obtained from D/H isotope values, suggest that this area has suffered significant changes in its distribution and intensity rainfall patterns through time. The end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1100- 1300 AD) is characterized by a progressive enrichmentof D/H isotope values which meant decreasing arid conditions. These rainfalls' increase might be interpreted by a shift from positive to negative dominance of the NAO. The Little Ice Age (LIA, 1300 - 1850 AD) was characterized by two humid periods (1300- 1550 AD and 1650 - 1850 AD) separated by a relatively dry period. These precipitation oscillations are clearly visible by marked changes in the D/H isotope values. The LIA was followed by the persistence of the positive NAO mode, exhibited by the depletion of the D/H isotope signal, which indicated an overall decrease of the precipitation in the central North Atlantic area. Surprisingly, the D/H of the last 100 years, characterized by the present global warming and a persistent positive NAO mode, display large fluctuations most possibly linked to an enhancement of the storminess which is in concordance with the data fluctuations observed in the instrumental record for the last 80 years in the archipelago. This climatic evolution is in accordance with

  8. Northward advection of Atlantic water in the eastern Nordic Seas over the last 3000 yr: a coccolith investigation of volume transport and surface water changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Dylmer

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Three marine sediment cores distributed along the Norwegian (MD95-2011, Barents Sea (JM09-KA11-GC, and Svalbard (HH11-134-BC continental margins have been investigated in order to reconstruct changes in the poleward flow of Atlantic Waters (AW and in the nature of upper surface water masses within the eastern Nordic Seas over the last 3000 yr. These reconstructions are based on a limited set of coccolith proxies: the abundance ratio between Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus pelagicus, an index of Atlantic vs. Polar-Arctic surface water masses; and Gephyrocapsa muellerae, a drifted coccolith species from the temperate North Atlantic, whose abundance changes are related to variations in the volume transport of the North Atlantic Current and its northernmost extension (the West Spitsbergen Current – WSC off western Svalbard. The entire investigated area, from 66 to 77° N, was affected by an overall increase in volume flow of AW from 3000 cal yr BP to Present. The long-term modulation of westerlies strength and location which are essentially driven by the dominant mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, is thought to explain the observed dynamics of poleward AW flow. The same mechanism also reconciles the recorded opposite zonal shifts in the location of the Arctic Front between the area off western Norway and the Barents Sea-eastern Fram Strait region. The Little Ice Age was governed by deteriorating conditions, with Arctic/Polar waters dominating in the surface off western Svalbard and western Barents Sea, possibly associated with both severe sea-ice conditions and a strongly reduced AW volume flow. A sudden short pulse of resumed high WSC flow interrupted this cold spell in eastern Fram Strait from 330 to 410 cal yr BP, with a a magnitude only surpassed by the one which characterizes the Modern Period. Our dataset not only confirms the high amplitude warming of surface waters at the turn of the 19th century off western Svalbard, it also

  9. Reconstructing Links between AMOC and Surface Temperature Variability in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borchert, Leonard; Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

    2016-04-01

    Recent studies found an impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean-atmosphere surface heat fluxes (SHFs) on North Atlantic (NA) climate on interannual time scales. Since fluctuations in SSTs and SHFs as well as AMOC and oceanic heat transport (OHT) are highly model dependent and cannot be assumed to be independent of the mean state of the model in use. By using the Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM) forced with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al (2011)), we confirm earlier studies and reconstruct for the governing period 1871-2010, that cold SSTs emerge in the Gulf Stream region and warm SSTs emerge in the NA Subpolar Gyre after strong AMOC anomalies at 50° N. The MPIOM in use has an average 1.5° horizontal resolution and 40 vertical non-equidistant depth levels. The model is forced by fluxes of heat, momentum, and freshwater at the air sea boundary through bulk formulas as described in Müller et al (2014). A positive density anomaly in the NA (= higher salinity / lower temperatures) is followed by an intensification of the AMOC and subsequently OHT. The proposed mechanism is examined in more detail studying correlations between AMOC, OHT, SSTs, and SHFs, as well as composite means of SSTs and SHFs in the Atlantic focusing on particularly strong and weak AMOC and OHT states at 50° N. High SSTs are shown to mostly appear simultaneously with upward SHFs and vice versa. The characteristic AMOC anomaly pattern appears in both correlation analysis and composite mean analysis over strong AMOC states after 2-6 years, and seems to occur favorably in winter (DJF). We further demonstrate that a similar, stronger pattern arises from OHT anomalies on similar time scales. Literature: Compo, GP, JS Whitaker, PD Sardeshmukh, N Matsui, RJ Allan, X Yin, BE Gleason, RS Vose, G Rutledge, P Bessemoulin, S Brönnimann, M Brunet, RJ Crouthamel, AN Grant, PY Groisman, PD Jones, MC Kruk, AC

  10. Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, Elena; Ridgwell, Andy; Hendy, Erica J

    2013-12-01

    Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral

  11. Opening of the Arctic-North Atlantic Gateway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engen, O.; Faleide, J. I.; Eldholm, O.; Breivik, A.

    2003-12-01

    The ˜150 km wide Fram Strait between Svalbard and Greenland is the only deep-water connection between the Arctic and the world oceans. It is essential for the thermohaline `engine' of the North Atlantic circulation system, pulling warm surface water north along the European coasts while returning cold, saline bottom water from the Arctic. Moreover, it contains a series of short, ultra-slow spreading segments and right-lateral transform faults, connecting the Gakkel Ridge to the rest of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge system. While the ridges to the north and south started spreading near the Paleocene-Eocene transition ( ˜55 Ma), the plate boundary between Svalbard and Greenland underwent shear and a transpressive orogeny. Only after the earliest Oligocene ( ˜33 Ma), when the Greenland plate became attached to North America and the rotation pole moved, the entire plate boundary became divergent. However, the final opening of the Fram Strait gateway was delayed for several reasons: First, basement terraces on the western Svalbard margin were downfaulted post-Eocene, witnessing a pre-breakup crustal thinning period that may have lasted for 15-20 m.y. Second, transform segments formed continental bridges for several m.y. after breakup on the ridge segments; the deep-water passage was not established before continental outliers were separated by young oceanic crust across all transform faults. Third, the Hovgaard microcontinent, which was split off the western Barents Sea-Svalbard margin, may have restricted water circulation for some time. By integrating gravity, bathymetry, magnetic and reflection seismic data we locate the positions of present and extinct spreading axes, as well as the continent-ocean transition (COT) on the Svalbard side. The COT correlates with a steep gradient in the Bouguer gravity anomaly, which is taken as a proxy COT on the sparsely surveyed Greenland side. By testing different rotation poles we arrive at a regionally consistent plate kinematic

  12. Bidirectional infrasonic ducts associated with sudden stratospheric warming events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assink, J. D.; Waxler, R.; Smets, P.; Evers, L. G.

    2014-02-01

    In January 2011, the state of the polar vortex in the midlatitudes changed significantly due to a minor sudden stratospheric warming event. As a result, a bidirectional duct for infrasound propagation developed in the middle atmosphere that persisted for 2 weeks. The ducts were due to two zonal wind jets, one between 30 and 50 km and the other around 70 km altitude. In this paper, using microbarom source modeling, a previously unidentified source region in the eastern Mediterranean is identified, besides the more well known microbarom source regions in the Atlantic Ocean. Infrasound data are then presented in which the above mentioned bidirectional duct is observed in microbarom signals recorded at the International Monitoring System station I48TN in Tunisia, from the Mediterranean region to the east and from the Atlantic Ocean to the west. While the frequency bands of the two sources overlap, the Mediterranean signal is coherent up to about 0.6 Hz. This observation is consistent with the microbarom source modeling; the discrepancy in the frequency band is related to differences in the ocean wave spectra for the two basins considered. This work demonstrates the sensitivity of infrasound to stratospheric dynamics and illustrates that the classic paradigm of a unidirectional stratospheric duct for infrasound propagation can be broken during a sudden stratospheric warming event.

  13. The combined influence of Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on central Mexico since the early 1600s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jungjae; Byrne, Roger; Böhnel, Harald

    2017-04-01

    Periodic droughts have been one of the most serious environmental issues in central Mexico since the earliest times. The impacts of future droughts are likely to become even more severe as the current global warming trend increases potential evaporation and moisture deficits. A full understanding of the mechanism underlying climate variability is imperative to narrow the uncertainty about future droughts and predict water availability. The climatic complexity generated by the combined influence of both Atlantic and Pacific forcings, however, causes considerable difficulty in interpreting central Mexican climate records. Also, the lack of high-resolution information regarding the climate in the recent past makes it difficult to clearly understand current drought mechanisms. Our new high-resolution δ18 O record from Hoya Rincon de Parangueo in central Mexico provides useful information on climate variations since the early 1600s. According to our results, the central Mexican climate has been predominantly controlled by the combined influence of the 20-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the 70-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, the AMO probably lost much of its influence in central Mexico in the early 20th century and the PDO has mostly driven climate change since. Marked dryness was mostly associated with co-occurrence of highly positive PDO and negative AMO between ∼1600 and 1900.

  14. Estimates of volume, heat and freshwater budgets for the Arctic Mediterranean and North Atlantic in relation to the main physical processes: Insight from the EU-NACLIM observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudels, Bert; Hansen, Bogi; Karstensen, Johannes; McCarthy, Gerard; Quadfasel, Detlef

    2016-04-01

    The EU NACLIM (North Atlantic Climate) project aims to understand the forcing of the North Atlantic circulation and its importance for the climate of northwestern Europe. NACLIM comprises extensive modelling studies of the atmosphere, ocean and climate, but here mainly the oceanographic observations are presented. The core observation areas are the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre and the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, separating the North Atlantic from the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. These are the areas, where the waters of the lower limb of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) are formed and sink into the deep North Atlantic to return southward, mainly in the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The exchanges across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, both the northward flowing Atlantic and the returning dense waters, have been monitored over decades, as have the circulation in the Subpolar gyre and the convection and mode water formation in the Labrador Sea. These studies are extended southward to the RAPID array located in the Subtropical gyre at 26oN to capture the MOC further south, and northward into the Arctic Mediterranean Sea and the formation area of the densest water in the DWBC. In the Subtropical gyre the ocean circulation is mainly forced by the wind, while in the Subpolar gyre the atmospheric influence, in addition to wind forcing, also has a large thermodynamic component, changing the characteristics of the water masses and the density structure of the gyre. The importance of cooling and freshwater input increases in the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. Variability and a recent declining trend of the MOC strength have been observed in the Subtropical gyre at the RAPID array. By contrast, both the northward flow across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and the overflows have remained steady during the observation periods. An increased atmospheric freshwater flux does not appear to affect the dense water formation in the Arctic Mediterranean, mainly because the low

  15. Atlantic and Pacific Influences on Mesoamerican Climate Over the Past Millennium (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Villanueva, J.; Cleaveland, M. K.

    2010-12-01

    Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico). Fourier-transform spectral analyses of the 1,238-year long reconstruction indicate strong concentrations of variance at frequencies associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO; representing over 14% of the total reconstructed variance between periods of 4.5 and 5.5 years), and at multi-decadal frequencies potentially associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; representing over 10% of the total variance between periods of 50 and 75 years). Weaker but statistically significant concentrations of variance are also detected with the Multi-Taper Method of spectral analysis at subdecadal timescales potentially linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 7.5 years) and at timescales possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (~33 years). The reconstruction is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO cold tongue region from 1871-2008 (during the boreal cool season, DJFM), and this SST correlation strengthens in the 20th Century (1931-2008). Summer drought tends to develop over central Mexico during El Nino events, and the record warm events observed in 1983 and 1998 were associated with the two most extremely dry June PDSI conditions in the past 1,238 years (reconstructed ranks 1 and 2 for 1983 and 1998, respectively). The reconstruction is also significantly correlated with SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic, and is coherent with long instrument-based indices of the NAO at periods near 7.5 years, but only during the 20th century. The June PDSI reconstruction is coherent (PValley of Mexico

  16. The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

    2015-11-16

    Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

  17. Warm dense crystallography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenza, Ryan A.; Seidler, Gerald T.

    2016-03-01

    The intense femtosecond-scale pulses from x-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) are able to create and interrogate interesting states of matter characterized by long-lived nonequilibrium semicore or core electron occupancies or by the heating of dense phases via the relaxation cascade initiated by the photoelectric effect. We address here the latter case of "warm dense matter" (WDM) and investigate the observable consequences of x-ray heating of the electronic degrees of freedom in crystalline systems. We report temperature-dependent density functional theory calculations for the x-ray diffraction from crystalline LiF, graphite, diamond, and Be. We find testable, strong signatures of condensed-phase effects that emphasize the importance of wide-angle scattering to study nonequilibrium states. These results also suggest that the reorganization of the valence electron density at eV-scale temperatures presents a confounding factor to achieving atomic resolution in macromolecular serial femtosecond crystallography (SFX) studies at XFELs, as performed under the "diffract before destroy" paradigm.

  18. Greater aerial moisture transport distances with warming amplify interbasin salinity contrasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hansi K. A.; Donohoe, Aaron; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Nusbaumer, Jesse; Noone, David C.

    2016-08-01

    The distance atmospheric moisture travels is fundamental to Earth's hydrologic cycle, governing how much evaporation is exported versus precipitated locally. The present-day tropical Atlantic is one region that exports much locally evaporated moisture away, leading to more saline surface waters in the Atlantic compared to the Indo-Pacific at similar latitudes. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model equipped with numerical water tracers to show that over half of the atmospheric freshwater exported from the Atlantic originates as evaporation in the northern Atlantic subtropics, primarily between 10°N and 20°N, and is transported across Central America via prevailing easterlies into the equatorial Pacific. We find enhanced moisture export from the Atlantic to Pacific with warming is due to greater distances between moisture source and sink regions, which increases moisture export from the Atlantic at the expense of local precipitation. Distance traveled increases due to longer moisture residence times, not simply Clausius-Clapeyron scaling.

  19. Bottom water changes in the subtropical North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean associated to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moebius, I.; Friedrich, O.; Edgar, K. M.; Scher, H. D.; Sexton, P.

    2013-12-01

    The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is a ~650 kyr interval of pronounced global warmth from which the climate system recovered in less than 50 kyr. Despite the valuable insights that the deep-sea sedimentary record could provide on the benthic ecosystem response to this protracted global warming event, and the mechanisms responsible for its relatively rapid recovery, we have little understanding of either. Here we present new data on bottom-water characteristics from ODP Sites 1051 (subtropical North Atlantic) and 738 (Southern Ocean), spanning the MECO and post-MECO interval (41.1 to 39.5 Ma). At Site 1051 we used benthic foraminiferal assemblages and benthic foraminifera accumulation rates (BFAR). We find little change in the species composition, but we identify two transient intervals of BFARs increasing by one order of magnitude associated with peak warming: High Productivity Intervals HPI-1 (40.07 - 39.98 Ma) and HPI-2 (39.70 - 39.62 Ma). We correlate these HPIs to intervals of increased organic carbon burial found in the Tethys and suggest that they represent periods of strengthened productivity in the subtropical North Atlantic and the Tethys. At Southern Ocean Site 738 we used benthic foraminiferal assemblages in combination with Cerium-anomaly data. In contrast to Site 1051, we notice a turnover of the benthic foraminiferal communities during the MECO (40.60 and 39.95 Ma) towards an assemblage dominated by infaunal taxa indicative of eutrophication. Additionally, we observe a drop in benthic foraminiferal abundances during the peak warming (40.10 - 39.97 Ma), synchronous to a low Cerium-anomaly and small excursion in ɛNd values. This indicates a decrease in bottom-water oxygenation during MECO peak warming, potentially caused by the transient influence of an older, oxygen-depleted water mass. Overall, our data suggest that the extent and rate of environmental change associated with the MECO vary greatly in different ocean basins and that the

  20. Evaluating the dominant components of warming in Pliocene climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Hill

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 °C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with cloud albedo feedbacks enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with cloud albedo feedbacks in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that high latitude albedo feedbacks provide the most significant enhancements to Pliocene greenhouse warming.

  1. NOGAPS-ALPHA Simulations of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Major Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    energy emanating from a significant blocking pattern over the South Atlantic that played a large role in forcing the major warming. Forecasts of less than...examine dynamical features of the 2002 SH major warming event in the middle strato - sphere (10 hPa), lower stratosphere (100 hPa), and tro- posphere (500...wave 3 peaks at over 150 m on 23–24 September. The strong growth rates of waves 2 and 3 at 100 hPa clearly play a major role in this event, as attested

  2. Warming of the West Spitsbergen Current and sea ice north of Svalbard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Piechura

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This research was supported by a grant from the Fifth European Union Frame-work Programme project ASOF-N, contract EVK2-CT-200200139, the Sixth Frame-work Programme DAMOCLES, contract 018509GOCE, and grants from the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education, decisions 61/N-IPY/2007/0 and 175/IPY/2007/01.AbstractAccording to the results of recent research, besides the atmospheric circulation, it is heat transport to the Arctic Ocean (AO by ocean currents, the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC in particular, that is playing a significant role in the process of Arctic warming. Data collected by the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (IO PAS, in the Norwegian and Greenland Seas, and Fram Strait during the last 20 years reveal considerable changes in the amount of heat transported by the WSC into the Arctic Ocean. An increase in Atlantic Water (AW temperature and the intensification of heat transport were observed in 2004-06; after this period, both parameters decreased. The aim of this study was to find out whether the fluctuations in heat input by the WSC have influenced the sea-ice distribution around Svalbard. In fact they do, but oceanic heat transport should nonetheless be regarded as just one of many processes influencing sea-ice behaviour.

  3. 78 FR 59878 - Atlantic Highly Migratory Species; Commercial Atlantic Aggregated Large Coastal Shark (LCS...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    ... Species; Commercial Atlantic Aggregated Large Coastal Shark (LCS), Atlantic Hammerhead Shark, Atlantic Blacknose Shark, and Atlantic Non-Blacknose Small Coastal Shark (SCS) Management Groups AGENCY: National... hammerhead sharks in the Atlantic region, and blacknose sharks and non-blacknose SCS in the Atlantic...

  4. Continental outflow from the US to the upper troposphere over the North Atlantic during the NASA INTEX-NA Airborne Campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Y. Kim

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available A case of continental outflow from the United States (US was examined using airborne measurements from NASA DC-8 flight 13 during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment – North America (INTEX-NA. Mixing ratios of methane (CH4 and carbon monoxide (CO at 8–11 km altitude over the North Atlantic were elevated to 1843 ppbv and 134 ppbv respectively, while those of carbon dioxide (CO2 and carbonyl sulfide (COS were reduced to 372.4 ppmv and 411 pptv respectively. In this region, urban and industrial influences were evidenced by elevated mixing ratios and good linear relationships between urban and industrial tracers compared to North Atlantic background air. Moreover, low mixing ratios and a good correlation between COS and CO2 showed a fingerprint of terrestrial uptake and minimal dilution during rapid transport over a 1–2 day time period. Analysis of synoptic conditions, backward trajectories, and photochemical aging estimates based on C3H8/C2H6 strongly suggested that elevated anthropogenic tracers in the upper troposphere of the flight region were the result of transport via convection and warm conveyor belt (WCB uplifting of boundary layer air over the southeastern US. This mechanism is supported by the similar slope values of linear correlations between long-lived (months anthropogenic tracers (e.g., C2Cl4 and CHCl3 from the flight region and the planetary boundary layer in the southeastern US. In addition, the aircraft measurements suggest that outflow from the US augmented the entire tropospheric column at mid-latitudes over the North Atlantic. Overall, the flight 13 data demonstrate a pervasive impact of US anthropogenic emissions on the troposphere over the North Atlantic.

  5. Recent warming of lake Kivu.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Katsev

    Full Text Available Lake Kivu in East Africa has gained notoriety for its prodigious amounts of dissolved methane and dangers of limnic eruption. Being meromictic, it is also expected to accumulate heat due to rising regional air temperatures. To investigate the warming trend and distinguish between atmospheric and geothermal heating sources, we compiled historical temperature data, performed measurements with logging instruments, and simulated heat propagation. We also performed isotopic analyses of water from the lake's main basin and isolated Kabuno Bay. The results reveal that the lake surface is warming at the rate of 0.12°C per decade, which matches the warming rates in other East African lakes. Temperatures increase throughout the entire water column. Though warming is strongest near the surface, warming rates in the deep waters cannot be accounted for solely by propagation of atmospheric heat at presently assumed rates of vertical mixing. Unless the transport rates are significantly higher than presently believed, this indicates significant contributions from subterranean heat sources. Temperature time series in the deep monimolimnion suggest evidence of convection. The progressive deepening of the depth of temperature minimum in the water column is expected to accelerate the warming in deeper waters. The warming trend, however, is unlikely to strongly affect the physical stability of the lake, which depends primarily on salinity gradient.

  6. Warm spells in Northern Europe in relation to atmospheric circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Piotrowski, Piotr; Bednorz, Ewa

    2017-05-01

    This study describes warm spells in Northern Europe and determines the synoptic situations that cause their occurrence. In this article, a relatively warm day was defined as a day when the maximum temperature exceeded the 95th annual percentile, and a warm spell (WS) was considered to be a sequence of at least five relatively warm days. In the analysed multiannual period and within the investigated area, 24 (Kallax) to 53 (Oslo) WSs were observed. The occurrence of WSs was mainly connected with positive anomalies of sea level pressure and a 500-hPa isobaric surface, displaying the presence of high-pressure systems. This occurrence was also accompanied by positive T850 anomalies.

  7. Global warming: the complete briefing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houghton, J.

    1994-01-01

    The science of global warming, its impacts, and what action might be taken, are described in this book, in a way which the intelligent non-scientist can understand. It also examines ethical and moral issues of concern about global warming, considering mankind as stewards of the earth. Chapter headings of the book are: global warming and climate change; the greenhouse effect; the greenhouse gases; climates of the past; modelling the climate; climate change and business-as-usual; the impacts of climate change; why should we be concerned ; weighing the uncertainty; action to slow and stabilize climate change; energy and transport for the future; and the global village.

  8. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  9. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  10. Climate change in NE Mexico: influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Sánchez Santillán

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An exploratory analysis of temperature, precipitation and evaporation records, in five localities of Tamaulipas state (NE Mexico, spanning from about 30s decade of XX century until first years of the XXI, is made by means of multivaried statistical techniques. A change point is detected in1964. By comparing the period former to this year with the period 1964-2002, a significant decrease of temperature is observed in four out of the five localities, in three ones there is a light increase of precipitation and in the another two it isgreater; finally, four of them have an important decrease in evaporation. According to the Köppen´s system of climatic classification adapted to the Mexican Republic, the climatetype changed in three out of the studied localities, passing from dry to warm sub-humid. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is analyzed as a possible cause of this behavior. Theresults suggest that the statistical methodology used is suitable for long term climate studies.

  11. Climate change in NE Mexico: influence of the Nort Atlantic Oscillation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Norma Sánchez López

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available An exploratory analysis of temperature, precipitation and evaporation records, in five localities of Tamaulipas state (NE Mexico, spanning from about 30s decade of XX century until first years of the XXI, is made by means of multivaried statistical techniques. A change point is detected in 1964. By comparing the period former to this year with the period 1964-2002, a significant decrease of temperature is observed in four out of the five localities, in three ones there is a light increase of precipitation and in the another two it is greater; finally, four of them have an important decrease in evaporation. According to the Köppen´s system of climatic classification adapted to the Mexican Republic, the climate type changed in three out of the studied localities, passing from dry to warm sub-humid. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO is analyzed as a possible cause of this behavior. The results suggest that the statistical methodology used is suitable for long term climate studies.

  12. Slow adaptation in the face of rapid warming leads to collapse of the Gulf of Maine cod fishery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pershing, Andrew J; Alexander, Michael A; Hernandez, Christina M; Kerr, Lisa A; Le Bris, Arnault; Mills, Katherine E; Nye, Janet A; Record, Nicholas R; Scannell, Hillary A; Scott, James D; Sherwood, Graham D; Thomas, Andrew C

    2015-11-13

    Several studies have documented fish populations changing in response to long-term warming. Over the past decade, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine increased faster than 99% of the global ocean. The warming, which was related to a northward shift in the Gulf Stream and to changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, led to reduced recruitment and increased mortality in the region's Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock. Failure to recognize the impact of warming on cod contributed to overfishing. Recovery of this fishery depends on sound management, but the size of the stock depends on future temperature conditions. The experience in the Gulf of Maine highlights the need to incorporate environmental factors into resource management.

  13. Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

    2016-11-30

    The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

  14. Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowther, T. W.; Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Rowe, C. W.; Wieder, W. R.; Carey, J. C.; Machmuller, M. B.; Snoek, B. L.; Fang, S.; Zhou, G.; Allison, S. D.; Blair, J. M.; Bridgham, S. D.; Burton, A. J.; Carrillo, Y.; Reich, P. B.; Clark, J. S.; Classen, A. T.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Elberling, B.; Emmett, B. A.; Estiarte, M.; Frey, S. D.; Guo, J.; Harte, J.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, B. R.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Larsen, K. S.; Laudon, H.; Lavallee, J. M.; Luo, Y.; Lupascu, M.; Ma, L. N.; Marhan, S.; Michelsen, A.; Mohan, J.; Niu, S.; Pendall, E.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Reinsch, S.; Reynolds, L. L.; Schmidt, I. K.; Sistla, S.; Sokol, N. W.; Templer, P. H.; Treseder, K. K.; Welker, J. M.; Bradford, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

  15. Pimping climate change: Richard Branson, global warming, and the performance of green capitalism

    OpenAIRE

    Scott Prudham

    2009-01-01

    On 21 September 2006 UK über-entrepreneur and Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson pledged approximately £1.6 billion, the equivalent of all the profits from Virgin Atlantic and Virgin Trains for the next ten years, to fighting climate change. Since then, Branson has restated his commitment to action on global warming, including investment in technologies for sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In this paper, I critically examine and engage with Branson’s announcements as a spec...

  16. Potential trends in snowmelt-generated peak streamflows in a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rui; Kumar, Mukesh; Link, Timothy E.

    2016-05-01

    Previously reported impacts of climate warming on streamflow peaks are varied, and the controls on the variations remain unclear. Using physically based linked snowpack and watershed hydrological models, we evaluated the potential changes in seasonal snowmelt-generated streamflow peak (Qmax) due to warming in a small semiarid mountain watershed. Results suggest that the trend in Qmax with warming is strongly governed by the conversion of precipitation phase, accumulated snow amount prior to the melt season, and snowmelt rate during the ablation period. Under a warming climate, the trend in Qmax is expected to be decreasing for relatively warm regions but increasing for cold regions. Climate regimes that are most susceptible to dominant precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain are likely to experience larger decreases in Qmax with warming. This study serves as a first step toward assessing the varied impacts on Qmax due to warming vis-a-vis the specific catchment hydroclimatology.

  17. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory conducts research to understand the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and processes of the...

  18. A Warm and Cleaner Winter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Beijing municipal and district governments have taken measures to keep residents warm and the winter sky blue In a bungalow in Xisi North Fifth Alley in the Xicheng District of Beijing,Li has lived for nearly seven decades.

  19. Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2016-04-01

    The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

  20. Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and intera- nnual climate variations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Variations of winter Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic are closely related to climate variations in the same region. When winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is positive (negative) anomaly phase, Icelandic Low is obviously deepened and shifts northwards (southwards). Simultaneously, the Subtropical High over the North Atlantic is also intensified, and moves northwards (south-wards). Those anomalies strengthen (weaken) westerly be-tween Icelandic Low and the Subtropical High, and further result in positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic, and increase (decrease) the warm water transportation from the mid-latitude to the Barents Sea, which causes positive (nega-tive) mixed-layer water temperature anomalies in the south part of the Barents Sea. Moreover, the distribution of anom-aly air temperature clearly demonstrates warming (cooling) in northern Europe and the subarctic regions (including the Barents Sea) and cooling (warming) in Baffin Bay/ Davis Strait. Both of distributions of SST and air temperature anomalies directly result in sea ice decrease (increase) in the Barents/Kara Seas, and sea ice increase (decrease) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait.

  1. Period Cramps

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Too Tall or Too Short All About Puberty Period Cramps KidsHealth > For Kids > Period Cramps Print A ... re a girl who gets them. What Are Period Cramps? Lots of girls experience cramps before or ...

  2. Warm Jupiters are less lonely than hot Jupiters: close neighbours

    CERN Document Server

    Huang, Chelsea X; Triaud, Amaury H M J

    2016-01-01

    Exploiting the Kepler transit data, we uncover a dramatic distinction in the prevalence of sub-Jovian companions, between systems that contain hot Jupiters (periods inward of 10 days) and those that host warm Jupiters (periods between 10 and 200 days). Hot Jupiters as a whole, with the singular exception of WASP-47b, do not have any detectable inner or outer planetary companions (with periods inward of 50 days and sizes down to $2 R_{\\rm Earth}$). Restricting ourselves to inner companions, our limits reach down to $1 R_{\\rm Earth}$. In stark contrast, half of the warm Jupiters are closely flanked by small companions. Statistically, the companion fractions for hot and warm Jupiters are mutually exclusive, in particular in regard to inner companions. The high companion fraction of warm Jupiters also yields clue to their formation. The warm Jupiters that have close-by siblings should have low orbital eccentricities and low mutual inclinations. The orbital configurations of these systems are reminiscent of those ...

  3. Arctic dimension of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Alekseev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A brief assessment of the global warming in the Arctic climate system with the emphasis on sea ice is presented. The Arctic region is coupled to the global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that providesa major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. On this basis using of special indices it is shown that amplification of warming in the Arctic is associated with the increasing of meridional heat transport from the low latitudes.

  4. Recent Decadal Trend in the North Atlantic Wind Energy Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chong Wei Zheng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the climatic trend of the North Atlantic wind energy using cross-calibrated, multiplatform (CCMP wind data for the period 1988–2011. Results show the following. (1 The North Atlantic WPD exhibited a significant increasing trend of 4.45  (W/m2/yr over the past 24 years. (2 The variation in the North Atlantic Ocean WPD shows a noticeable regional difference. More than half of the North Atlantic Ocean has a significantly increasing trend in WPD. The increasing trend in the mid-high latitudes is stronger than that in the low latitudes, and the trend is stronger in the west than in the east. The area with the strongest increasing trend is located along the southern coast of Greenland of 35 (W/m2/yr. (3 There is a noticeable seasonal difference in the variation of WPD. The strongest increasing trend occurs in December-January-February (DJF, followed by September-October-November (SON and March-April-May (MAM, and the weakest occurs in June-July-August (JJA. The increasing trend in different areas is dominated by different seasons. (4 There is no leading or lagging correlation between WPD and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO. However, there is a noticeable negative correlation between the Niño3 index and WPD in most of the North Atlantic.

  5. Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean from 30ka to 10ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrack, Kerr; Greenop, Rosanna; Burke, Andrea; Barker, Stephen; Chalk, Thomas; Crocker, Anya

    2016-04-01

    Some of the most striking features of the Late Pleistocene interval are the rapid changes in climate between warmer interstadial and cold stadial periods which, when coupled, are termed Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. This shift between warm and cold climates has been interpreted to result from changes in the thermohaline circulation (Broecker et al., 1985) triggered by, for instance, freshwater input from the collapse of the Laurentide ice sheet (Zahn et al., 1997). However, a recent study suggests that major ice rafting events cannot be the 'trigger' for the centennial to millennial scale cooling events identified over the past 500kyr (Barker at al., 2015). Polar planktic foraminiferal and lithogenic/terrigenous grain counts reveal that the southward migration of the polar front occurs before the deposition of ice rafted debris and therefore the rafting of ice during stadial periods. Based upon this evidence, Barker et al. suggest that the transition to a stadial state is a non-linear response to gradual cooling in the region. In order to test this hypothesis, our study reconstructs sea surface temperature across D-O events and the deglaciation in the North Atlantic between 30ka and 10ka using Mg/ Ca paleothermometry in Globigerina bulloides at ODP Sites 980 and 983 (the same sites as used in Barker et al., 2015) with an average sampling resolution of 300 years. With our new record we evaluate the timing of surface ocean temperature change, frontal shift movement, and ice rafting to investigate variations in the temperature gradient across the polar front over D-O events. References: Barker, S., Chen, J., Gong, X., Jonkers, L., Knorr, G., Thornalley, D., 2015. Icebergs not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events. Nature, 520(7547), pp.333-336. Broecker, W.S., Peteer, D.M., Rind, D., 1985. Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation? Nature, 315 (6014), pp.21-26. Zahn, R., Schönfeld, J., Kudrass, H.-R., Park, M

  6. The warm chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, J Z

    1985-01-01

    1 series of events carried smallpox vaccination on an eastward odyssey; a 2nd path led westward from Spain to Spanish America, to the Philippines, and to China. Francisco Xavier Balmis (1753-1819), a Spanish physician, sailed around the world in 3 years, establishing vaccination boards in South America, the Philippines, and China. He led the "Real Expedicion Martima de la Vacuna," sponsored by the Bourbon King Charles IV; its success derived from arm-to-arm passage of the virus using orphan boys on the long voyages across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Venezuela was the 1st country to which Balmis introduced vaccine. He divided the expedition with his deputy, Slavany, who was to lead 1 group through the Spanish colonies in the Vice-Royalty of Peru; Balmis would lead the other group across the Vice-Royalty of New Spain to the far-distant colony in the Philippines. The establishment of central boards to regulate vaccination became one of Balmis's principal preoccupations. The board he created in Venezuela served as the model for those that he and Salvany were to establish later. Balmis sailed to Havana from La Guaira on May 8, 1804; Salvany led his team to Bogota. Balmis's singular success in Caracas, and Salvany's in Bogota, where Salvany also created a Central Vaccination Board, were attributable in large measure to the total support they received from church and civil authorites. The Portuguese throne had a comparable interest in its prize colony, Brazil. In 1804, Felisberto Calderia Brant Pontes sent a group of slave children from Bahia to Lisbon so that arm-to-arm transfer could be made on the return voyage. His effort was successful, and 1335 persons had been vaccinated in Bahia by June 1, 1804. In a decree of September 3, 1803 Charles IV directed that the Balmis expedition should continue to the Philippines. The advancement of health in the Philippines was a major commitment of the Spaniards. The Philippine vaccination expedition, headed by Balmis, sailed

  7. Media narratives of global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meisner, M. [Syracuse Univ., Syracuse, NY (United States)

    2000-06-01

    The way in which the North American print media are representing global warming was the focus of this paper. It was suggested that the way in which the media presents the issue and proposed responses to it, will influence how the public and decision-makers perceive and respond to the problem. This paper also presented examples demonstrating how nature and humanity's relationship to nature are being presented and what types of responses to global warming are being presented. The issue of who is responsible for acting to prevent or mitigate climate change was also discussed. It was shown that media narratives of global warming are not just stories of scientists debating the existence of global warming, but that they now largely accept global warming as a reality. However, the media continue to construct the problem in narrow technical, economic and anthropocentric terms. Mass media interpretation of global warming offer up a limited selection of problem definitions, reasons for acting and ways of addressing the problem. It was cautioned that this approach will likely promote futility, denial and apathy on the part of the public. 21 refs.

  8. Sustained acceleration of soil carbon decomposition observed in a 6-year warming experiment in a warm-temperate forest in southern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teramoto, Munemasa; Liang, Naishen; Takagi, Masahiro; Zeng, Jiye; Grace, John

    2016-10-01

    To examine global warming’s effect on soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition in Asian monsoon forests, we conducted a soil warming experiment with a multichannel automated chamber system in a 55-year-old warm-temperate evergreen broadleaved forest in southern Japan. We established three treatments: control chambers for total soil respiration, trenched chambers for heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and warmed trenched chambers to examine warming effect on Rh. The soil was warmed with an infrared heater above each chamber to increase soil temperature at 5 cm depth by about 2.5 °C. The warming treatment lasted from January 2009 to the end of 2014. The annual warming effect on Rh (an increase per °C) ranged from 7.1 to17.8% °C-1. Although the warming effect varied among the years, it averaged 9.4% °C-1 over 6 years, which was close to the value of 10.1 to 10.9% °C-1 that we calculated using the annual temperature-efflux response model of Lloyd and Taylor. The interannual warming effect was positively related to the total precipitation in the summer period, indicating that summer precipitation and the resulting soil moisture level also strongly influenced the soil warming effect in this forest.

  9. On Prescription of Warming Yang and Invigorating Qi Combined with Levocarnitine in Improving Phlegm-dampness Pattern during Fasting Period%温阳补气联合左卡尼汀改善禁食期间痰湿证初探

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张俊杰; 孟君; 柯斌; 杨玉彬; 石兰英; 邱超平; 秦鉴

    2014-01-01

    通过典型案例指出禁食疗法具有减轻体重、改善胰岛素抵抗及降低炎症反应等作用,能够有效治疗超重/肥胖相关的代谢性疾病,但禁食期间人体易出现饥饿、乏力、头晕及反应迟钝等不适反应,限制了禁食疗法的临床应用,但根据禁食期间中医证型表现,结合禁食下能量代谢改变,使用温阳补气方联合左卡尼汀干预禁食,结果发现饥饿、倦怠乏力、头晕及反应迟钝等不适反应发生率显著下降,饥饿耐受性显著提高。%Fasting therapy could reduce the weight, improve insulin resistance and alleviate inflammations, which could be applied to the treatment for overweight/obesity related metabolic diseases. Its clinical application was restricted due to the patients' side effects including hunger, fatigue, vertigo and slow response, the prescription of warming Yang and invigorating Qi and levocarnitine were used to intervene fasting according to the manifestations of TCM pattern and the changes of energy metabolism in fasting period, it's found that the incidence of side effect such as hunger, fatigue, vertigo and slow response was lowered and hunger tolerance was raised remarkably.

  10. Global warming 2007. An update to global warming: the balance of evidence and its policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Charles F

    2007-03-09

    In the four years since my original review (Keller[25]; hereafter referred to as CFK03), research has clarified and strengthened our understanding of how humans are warming the planet. So many of the details highlighted in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report[21] and in CFK03 have been resolved that I expect many to be a bit overwhelmed, and I hope that, by treating just the most significant aspects of the research, this update may provide a road map through the expected maze of new information. In particular, while most of CFK03 remains current, there are important items that have changed: Most notable is the resolution of the conundrum that mid-tropospheric warming did not seem to match surface warming. Both satellite and radiosonde (balloon-borne sensors) data reduction showed little warming in the middle troposphere (4-8 km altitude). In the CFK03 I discussed potential solutions to this problem, but at that time there was no clear resolution. This problem has now been solved, and the middle troposphere is seen to be warming apace with the surface. There have also been advances in determinations of temperatures over the past 1,000 years showing a cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) but essentially the same warming during medieval times (not as large as recent warming). The recent uproar over the so-called "hockey stick" temperature determination is much overblown since at least seven other groups have made relatively independent determinations of northern hemisphere temperatures over the same time period and derived essentially the same results. They differ on how cold the LIA was but essentially agree with the Mann's hockey stick result that the Medieval Warm Period was not as warm as the last 25 years. The question of the sun's influence on climate continues to generate controversy. It appears there is a growing consensus that, while the sun was a major factor in earlier temperature variations, it is incapable of having caused observed warming in the past quarter

  11. The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jianping; Xie, Yongkun; Guan, Xiaodan; Li, Dongdong; Ji, Fei

    2017-01-01

    A warming hiatus is a period of relatively little change in global mean surface air temperatures (SAT). Many studies have attributed the current warming hiatus to internal climate variability (ICV). But there is less work on discussion of the dynamics about how these ICV modes influence cooling over land in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Here we demonstrate the warming hiatus was more significant over the continental NH. We explored the dynamics of the warming hiatus from a global perspective and investigated the mechanisms of the reversing from accelerated warming to hiatus, and how ICV modes influence SAT change throughout the NH land. It was found that these ICV modes and Arctic amplification can excite a decadal modulated oscillation (DMO), which enhances or suppresses the long-term trend on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. When the DMO is in an upward (warming) phase, it contributes to an accelerated warming trend, as in last 20 years of twentieth-century. It appears that there is a downward swing in the DMO occurring at present, which has balanced or reduced the radiative forced warming and resulted in the recent global warming hiatus. The DMO modulates the SAT, in particular, the SAT of boreal cold months, through changes in the asymmetric meridional and zonal thermal forcing (MTF and ZTF). The MTF represents the meridional temperature gradients between the mid- and high-latitudes, and the ZTF represents the asymmetry in temperatures between the extratropical large-scale warm and cold zones in the zonal direction. Via the different performance of combined MTF and ZTF, we found that the DMO's modulation effect on SAT was strongest when both weaker (stronger) MTF and stronger (weaker) ZTF occurred simultaneously. And the current hiatus is a result of a downward DMO combined with a weaker MTF and stronger ZTF, which stimulate both a weaker polar vortex and westerly winds, along with the amplified planetary waves, thereby facilitating southward invasion of

  12. Functional responses of North Atlantic fish eggs to increasing temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsoukali, Stavroula; Visser, Andre; MacKenzie, Brian

    2016-01-01

    -days and survival of fish eggs from 32 populations of 17 species in the North Atlantic to different temperatures in order to determine potential consequences of global warming for these species. The response of development time exhibited a similar decreasing trend with respect to temperature across species....... The similar slopes of regression lines relating lntransformed development time and temperature indicate similar sensitivity to temperature changes. Across-species differences were mainly driven by intercept values, indicating up to 8- fold differences in development time at given temperature...

  13. Circulation anomalies associated with winter temperature extremes in Athens during the period 1900-2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Founda, D. [National Observatory of Athens (Greece). Inst. for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development; Loon, H. van [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States)

    2008-02-15

    We use the long series of temperature observed at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece, to examine the extremes of this element together with associated anomalies in the general circulation of the atmosphere. The 13 extreme-cold and 20 extreme-warm winters during the period 1900-2004 (equal to or below minus one standard deviation, and equal to or above plus one standard deviation respectively) had opposite pressure anomalies, mainly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. The temperature extremes at Athens were representative of most of the Mediterranean and the Balkans, and their associated pressure anomalies were robust. The extremes of the Index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the pressure difference between Gibraltar and Iceland) were not a good indicator of the temperature extremes in the Mediterranean. Rather the extreme temperature anomalies over the Mediterranean region are to a large extent controlled by a bipolar pattern of SLP (see level pressure) anomalies with centers over the British Isles and the Arctic. (orig.)

  14. Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang

    2017-07-01

    Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.

  15. How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

  16. Relationship of Northeast Atlantic albacore juveniles with surface thermal and chlorophyll-a fronts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagarminaga, Y.; Arrizabalaga, H.

    2014-09-01

    When the spring seasonal warming starts, North Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) juveniles and pre-adults perform a trophic migration to the northeastern Atlantic, to the Bay of Biscay, and to the southeast of Ireland. During this migration, albacore juveniles are mainly exploited by Spanish trolling and baitboat fleets. The present study analyzes the relationship between the albacore spatio-temporal distribution and the upper surface horizontal fronts in their migration paths and destinations. For this, albacore catches from personal fishing logbooks from Basque trolling and live-bait fleets and daily MODIS AQUA Chlorophyll-a and SST products covering the period 2003-2005 have being used. Gradients have been calculated with the front algorithm proposed by Belkin and O'Reilly (2009). The approach used to study the relationship of catches location with frontal areas is based in the comparison of distributions of gradient magnitude around catch locations versus gradient magnitudes in a Monthly Occupation Area. The results obtained show that there is a high spatio- temporal variability of SST and Chl-a fronts in the area. SST and Chl-a fronts are not coincident in time or in space. However, there is a clear seasonal pattern of SST and Chl-a frontal activity in the area with a peak in July for SST gradient magnitudes and a peak in April for Chl-a gradient magnitudes. The relationship of albacore juvenile catches with high gradient magnitude areas is different according to the months and fleets analysed. In general, there is no evidence of consistent adherence of albacore catches to areas with higher SST gradients. However, results suggest a potential association between both fleets catches and Chl-a high gradient magnitude areas in August and September.

  17. 77 FR 41728 - Plan for Periodic Review of Regulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-16

    .... Atlantic Coastal Fisheries Cooperative Management Act Provisions; Fisheries of the Northeastern United... for Periodic Review of Regulations AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic...: The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) requires that the National Marine Fisheries Service...

  18. Interactions Between Vestige Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Mid-Latitude Storms Over Mediterranean Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita; Mugnai, Alberto; Tripoli, Gregory J.

    2007-01-01

    One of the more interesting tropical-mid-latitude interactions is one that has important effects on precipitation within the Mediterranean basin. This interaction consists of an Atlantic tropical cyclone vestige whose original disturbance travels eastward and northward across Atlantic basin, eventually intermingling with a mid-latitude cyclone entering southern Europe and/or the \\bestern Mediterranean Sea. The period for these interactions is from mid-September through November. If the tropical cyclone and its vestige is able to make the eastward Atlantic transit within the low to mid-levels, or if an upper level potential vorticity perturbation Cjet streak) emitted by a Hurricane in its latter stages within the central Atlantic is able to propagate into and along the longwave pattern affecting the western Mediterranean Sea (MED), then there is the prospect for the tropical cyclone remnant to produce a major modification of the mid-latitude storm system preparing to affect the MED region. For such an occurrence to take place, it is necessary for an amplifying baroclinic perturbation to be already situated to the rear of a longwave trough, or to be excited by the emitted jet streak to the rear of a longwave trough -- in either case, preparing to affect the western MED. The Algiers City flood of 9-10 November 2001, which killed some 700 people, was produced by a Mediterranean cyclone that had been influenced by two vestige Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1,orenzo and Noel. A published modeling study involving various of this study's authors has already described the dynamical development of the Algiers storm as it amplified from a developing baroclinic disturbance in the Rossby wave train, into a northern Africa hazardous flood system, then lingered in the western MED as a semi-intense warm core cyclone. In our new modeling experiments, we investigate the impact of what might have happened in the eventual precipitation field. had the main features of the tropical

  19. Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe

    OpenAIRE

    Zhongling Yang; Lin Jiang; Fanglong Su; Qian Zhang; Jianyang Xia; Shiqiang Wan

    2016-01-01

    Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and res...

  20. Forced-air warming discontinued: periprosthetic joint infection rates drop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott D. Augustine

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Several studies have shown that the waste heat from forced-air warming (FAW escapes near the floor and warms the contaminated air resident near the floor. The waste heat then forms into convection currents that rise up and contaminate the sterile field above the surgical table. It has been shown that a single airborne bacterium can cause a periprosthetic joint infection (PJI following joint replacement surgery. We retrospectively compared PJI rates during a period of FAW to a period of air-free conductive fabric electric warming (CFW at three hospitals. Surgical and antibiotic protocols were held constant. The pooled multicenter data showed a decreased PJI rate of 78% following the discontinuation of FAW and a switch to air-free CFW (n=2034; P=0.002. The 78% reduction in joint implant infections observed when FAW was discontinued suggests that there is a link between the waste FAW heat and PJIs.

  1. AIRS-observed warm core structures of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Si; Chen, Baiqing; Li, Tim; Wu, Naigeng; Deng, Wenjian

    2017-03-01

    Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature profiles during the period 2003-2013 are used to examine the warm core structures and evolution characteristics associated with the formation and development of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs). The warm core with a steady 1.5-K warming in the layer of 500-300 hPa occurs 24 h prior to tropical storm formation. Apparent eye warming extends upward to upper troposphere and downward to near surface after tropical storm formation. TC intensity shows a robust positive correlation with the warm core strength and has a weaker but still significant positive correlation with the warm core height (the weaker correlation is primarily attributed to the scattered warm core heights of weak TCs). Future 24-h intensity change of TCs has little correlation with the warm core height while it has a significant negative correlation with the warm core strength. Weak to moderate warm core at 500-200 hPa may be a necessary but not sufficient initial condition for TC rapid intensification. AIRS-observed warm core structures, in combination with other environmental factors, have the potential to improve the prediction of tropical storm formation and rapid intensification of WNP TCs.

  2. Spatio-temporal analysis of warming in Bangladesh using recent observed temperature data and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

    2016-05-01

    This study focused on the annual and seasonal warming at local scale by analysing the trends, anomalies, change points and shifting of isotherm in temperature from 34 meteorological stations distributed over Bangladesh, spanning 40 years from the year 1971-2010. For trends, a linear regression using least square model was applied. Anomalies were calculated as a difference between the reference (1971-2000 mean) and actual occurrence value. Inverse distance weighted interpolation and GIS techniques were used to find out the spatial pattern of warming. Besides, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test was applied to detect the changing point of warming. Direction of shifting of warming was detected by the decadal distribution pattern of specific isotherms which were generated using GIS. The result reveals that the climate of Bangladesh undergone a significant warming during the period 1971-2010, 0.020 °C per year (for annual mean) and the maximum temperature warmed more than the minimum temperature (0.022 vs. 0.018 °C per year). On a seasonal basis, hot summer, humid summer and dry winter also show significant warming, 0.022, 0.026 and 0.011 °C per year, respectively. The warming of maximum temperature (0.032 °C per year) in humid summer was greater than other seasons, contributed more on annual warming. Spatial patterns indicate that geographically the warming varied significantly and some places warming exit 2.0 °C and reached up to 3.2 °C. The north western, north eastern, southern and south eastern parts of the country are more susceptible to rising temperature. In 2010, mean annual temperature was 0.84 °C warmer than the base period (1971-2000) mean. The significant warmest period was spread across the year 1995-2010, with 2010 being the warmest year. Statistically significant warming was began in early 1990's and the years 1990, 1994 and 1997 identified as important abrupt change points of warming. Moreover, a remarkably northward and north

  3. Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

  4. Warm Jupiters from secular planet-planet interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Petrovich, Cristobal

    2016-01-01

    Most warm Jupiters (gas-giant planets with $0.1~{\\rm AU}\\lesssim a \\lesssim1$ AU) have pericenter distances that are too large for significant orbital migration by tidal friction. We study the possibility that the warm Jupiters are undergoing secular eccentricity oscillations excited by an outer companion (a planet or star) in an eccentric and/or mutually inclined orbit. In this model the warm Jupiters migrate periodically, in the high-eccentricity phase of the oscillation when the pericenter distance is small, but are typically observed at much lower eccentricities. We show that the steady-state eccentricity distribution of the warm Jupiters migrating by this mechanism is approximately flat, which is consistent with the observed distribution if and only if we restrict the sample to warm Jupiters that have outer companions detected by radial-velocity surveys. The eccentricity distribution of warm Jupiters without companions exhibits a peak at low eccentricities ($e\\lesssim 0.2$) that must be explained by a di...

  5. How warm days increase belief in global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-02-01

    Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a...

  7. Recent Changes in Arctic Ocean Sea Ice Motion Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, R.

    1999-01-01

    Examination of a new ice motion dataset of the Arctic Ocean over a recent eighteen year period (1978-1996) reveals patterns of variability that can be linked directly to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  8. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) East Atlantic/ Western Russia Teleconnection Pattern Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Monthly tabulated index of the East Atlantic/ Western Russia teleconnection pattern. The data spans the period 1950 to present. The index is derived from a rotated...

  9. Can cirrus clouds warm early Mars?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    The presence of the ancient valley networks on Mars indicates a climate 3.8 Ga that was warm enough to allow substantial liquid water to flow on the martian surface for extended periods of time. However, the origin of these enigmatic features is hotly debated and discussion of their formation has been focused on how warm such a climate may have been and for how long. Recent warm and wet solutions using single-column radiative convective models involve supplementing CO2-H2O atmospheres with other greenhouse gases, such as H2 (i.e. Ramirez et al., 2014; Batalha et al., 2015). An interesting recent proposal, using the CAM 3-D General Circulation model, argues that global cirrus cloud decks in CO2-H2O atmospheres with at least 0.25 bar of CO2 , consisting of 10-micron (and larger) sized particles, could have generated the above-freezing temperatures required to explain the early martian surface geology (Urata and Toon, 2013). Here, we use our single-column radiative convective climate model to check these 3-D results and analyze the likelihood that such warm atmospheres, with mean surface pressures of up to 3 bar, could have supported cirrus cloud decks at full and fractional cloud cover for sufficiently long durations to form the ancient valleys. Our results indicate that cirrus cloud decks could have provided the mean surface temperatures required, but only if cloud cover approaches 100%, in agreement with Urata and Toon (2013). However, even should cirrus cloud coverage approach 100%, we show that such atmospheres are likely to have been too short-lived to produce the volumes of water required to carve the ancient valleys. At more realistic early Mars cloud fractions (~50%, Forget et al., 2013), cirrus clouds do not provide the required warming. Batalha, N., Domagal-Goldman, S. D., Ramirez, R.M., & Kasting, J. F., 2