Use of videoconferencing in Wales to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, travel costs and time.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Delyth; Tranter, Glynis; Axford, Alan T

2009-01-01

In September 2005 a telemedicine service was started to assist multidisciplinary teams in Wales to improve cancer services. In October 2006 and October 2007 users of videoconferencing equipment at one site completed questionnaires. During October 2006 a total of 18,000 km of car travel were avoided, equivalent to 1696 kg of CO(2) emission. During October 2007 a total of 20,800 km of car travel were avoided, equivalent to 2590 kg of CO(2) emission. We estimate that 48 trees would take a year to absorb that quantity of CO(2). The results of the surveys show that exploiting telemedicine makes better use of staff time, reduces the time spent travelling and assists in reducing climate change by limiting the emissions of CO(2).

People's Collection Wales: Online Access to the Heritage of Wales from Museums, Archives and Libraries

Science.gov (United States)

Tedd, Lucy A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The People's Collection Wales aims to collect, interpret, distribute and discuss Wales' cultural heritage in an online environment. Individual users or local history societies are able to create their own digital collections, contribute relevant content, as well as access digital resources from heritage institutions. This paper aims to…

The changing trend in nitrate concentrations in major aquifers due to historical nitrate loading from agricultural land across England and Wales from 1925 to 2150

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, L., E-mail: lei.wang@bgs.ac.uk [British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG (United Kingdom); Stuart, M.E.; Lewis, M.A. [British Geological Survey, Maclean Building, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB (United Kingdom); Ward, R.S. [British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham NG12 5GG (United Kingdom); Skirvin, D. [ADAS UK Ltd., Pendeford House, Pendeford Business Park, Wobaston Road, Wolverhampton WV9 5AP (United Kingdom); Naden, P.S. [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB (United Kingdom); Collins, A.L. [Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems Department, Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Ascott, M.J. [British Geological Survey, Maclean Building, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB (United Kingdom)

2016-01-15

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses. - Highlights: • An approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale is presented. • The long time-lag for nitrate in the

The changing trend in nitrate concentrations in major aquifers due to historical nitrate loading from agricultural land across England and Wales from 1925 to 2150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, L.; Stuart, M.E.; Lewis, M.A.; Ward, R.S.; Skirvin, D.; Naden, P.S.; Collins, A.L.; Ascott, M.J.

2016-01-01

Nitrate is necessary for agricultural productivity, but can cause considerable problems if released into aquatic systems. Agricultural land is the major source of nitrates in UK groundwater. Due to the long time-lag in the groundwater system, it could take decades for leached nitrate from the soil to discharge into freshwaters. However, this nitrate time-lag has rarely been considered in environmental water management. Against this background, this paper presents an approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale, to simulate the impacts of historical nitrate loading from agricultural land on the evolution of groundwater nitrate concentrations. An additional process-based component was constructed for the saturated zone of significant aquifers in England and Wales. This uses a simple flow model which requires modelled recharge values, together with published aquifer properties and thickness data. A spatially distributed and temporally variable nitrate input function was also introduced. The sensitivity of parameters was analysed using Monte Carlo simulations. The model was calibrated using national nitrate monitoring data. Time series of annual average nitrate concentrations along with annual spatially distributed nitrate concentration maps from 1925 to 2150 were generated for 28 selected aquifer zones. The results show that 16 aquifer zones have an increasing trend in nitrate concentration, while average nitrate concentrations in the remaining 12 are declining. The results are also indicative of the trend in the flux of groundwater nitrate entering rivers through baseflow. The model thus enables the magnitude and timescale of groundwater nitrate response to be factored into source apportionment tools and to be taken into account alongside current planning of land-management options for reducing nitrate losses. - Highlights: • An approach to modelling groundwater nitrate at the national scale is presented. • The long time-lag for nitrate in the

Timing effects on first marriage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

2005-01-01

Recent substantial declines in first marriage in Western countries have been accompanied by increases in the average age at first marriage. Since the period proportion ever marrying, PEM, is sensitive to cohort tempo changes, the recent fall in the PEM may simply reflect cohort delays in marriage....... The importance of timing factors is examined in the light of twentieth-century experience of first marriage in England and Wales and the USA. Using a variant of the Timing Index developed in research on fertility, we measure cohort timing effects for marriage and calculate an adjusted PEM. After examining...... twentieth-century trends in nuptiality for men and women, we find substantial tempo effects on the period PEM. Adjusted PEM values show a real decline in marriage for cohorts, but that decline is considerably smaller than the one shown by the unadjusted figures. This is especially true for England and Wales...

Long term effect of reduced pack sizes of paracetamol on poisoning deaths and liver transplant activity in England and Wales: interrupted time series analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Bergen, Helen; Simkin, Sue; Dodd, Sue; Pocock, Phil; Bernal, William; Gunnell, David; Kapur, Navneet

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the long term effect of United Kingdom legislation introduced in September 1998 to restrict pack sizes of paracetamol on deaths from paracetamol poisoning and liver unit activity. Design Interrupted time series analyses to assess mean quarterly changes from October 1998 to the end of 2009 relative to projected deaths without the legislation based on pre-legislation trends. Setting Mortality (1993-2009) and liver unit activity (1995-2009) in England and Wales, using information from the Office for National Statistics and NHS Blood and Transplant, respectively. Participants Residents of England and Wales. Main outcome measures Suicide, deaths of undetermined intent, and accidental poisoning deaths involving single drug ingestion of paracetamol and paracetamol compounds in people aged 10 years and over, and liver unit registrations and transplantations for paracetamol induced hepatotoxicity. Results Compared with the pre-legislation level, following the legislation there was an estimated average reduction of 17 (95% confidence interval −25 to −9) deaths per quarter in England and Wales involving paracetamol alone (with or without alcohol) that received suicide or undetermined verdicts. This decrease represented a 43% reduction or an estimated 765 fewer deaths over the 11¼ years after the legislation. A similar effect was found when accidental poisoning deaths were included, and when a conservative method of analysis was used. This decrease was largely unaltered after controlling for a non-significant reduction in deaths involving other methods of poisoning and also suicides by all methods. There was a 61% reduction in registrations for liver transplantation for paracetamol induced hepatotoxicity (−11 (−20 to −1) registrations per quarter). But no reduction was seen in actual transplantations (−3 (−12 to 6)), nor in registrations after a conservative method of analysis was used. Conclusions UK legislation to reduce pack sizes of

76 FR 2646 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-14

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... Ranger District, 504 9th Street, Craig, Alaska. Send written comments to Prince of Wales Resource...

75 FR 37753 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-30

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... Ranger District, 504 9th Street, Craig, Alaska. Send written comments to Prince of Wales Resource...

76 FR 12933 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

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2011-03-09

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... Bay Ranger District 1312 Federal Way Thorne Bay, Alaska. Send written comments to Prince of Wales...

75 FR 75662 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

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2010-12-06

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... Ferry Terminal 110 Stikine Way, Coffman Cove, Alaska. Send written comments to Prince of Wales Resource...

England and Wales: Stable fertility and pronounced social status differences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy Sigle-Rushton

2008-07-01

Full Text Available For nearly three decades, the total fertility rate in England and Wales has remained high relative to other European countries, and stable at about 1.7 births per woman. In this chapter, we examine trends in both period and cohort fertility throughout the twentieth century, and demonstrate some important differences across demographic and social groups in the timing and quantum of fertility. Breaking with a market-oriented and laissez-faire approach to work and family issues, the last 10 years have seen the introduction of new social and economic policies aimed at providing greater support to families with children. However, the effect of the changes is likely to be limited to families on the lower end of the income scale. Rather than facilitating work and parenthood, some policies create incentives for a traditional gendered division of labour. Fertility appears to have remained stable despite, rather than because of, government actions.

75 FR 65447 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-25

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... Ranger District 504 9th Street, Craig, Alaska. Send written comments to Prince of Wales Resource Advisory...

Demographic factors associated with smoking cessation during pregnancy in New South Wales, Australia, 2000-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Passmore, Erin; McGuire, Rhydwyn; Correll, Patricia; Bentley, Jason

2015-04-18

Smoking during pregnancy increases the risk of adverse health outcomes for both the mother and the child. Rates of smoking during pregnancy, and rates of smoking cessation during pregnancy, vary between demographic groups. This study describes demographic factors associated with smoking cessation during pregnancy in New South Wales, Australia, and describes trends in smoking cessation in demographic subgroups over the period 2000 - 2011. Data were obtained from the New South Wales Perinatal Data Collection, a population-based surveillance system covering all births in New South Wales. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore associations between smoking cessation during pregnancy and demographic factors. Between 2000 and 2011, rates of smoking cessation in pregnancy increased from 4.0% to 25.2%. Demographic characteristics associated with lower rates of smoking cessation during pregnancy included being a teenage mother, being an Aboriginal person, and having a higher number of previous pregnancies. Between 2000 and 2011, rates of smoking cessation during pregnancy increased dramatically across all demographic groups. However, specific demographic groups remain significantly less likely to quit smoking, suggesting a need for targeted efforts to promote smoking cessation in these groups.

77 FR 50081 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

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2012-08-20

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... be sent to Prince of Wales RAC c/o District Ranger P.O. Box 500 Craig, AK 99921, or by email to...

76 FR 24852 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

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2011-05-03

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... for oral comments must be sent to Prince of Wales RAC c/o District Ranger P.O. Box 500 Craig, AK 99921...

76 FR 28416 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-17

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... Prince of Wales RAC c/o District Ranger P.O. Box 500 Craig, AK 99921, or by e-mail to [email protected

77 FR 58095 - Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-19

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Prince of Wales Resource Advisory Committee... must be sent to Prince of Wales RAC c/o District Ranger P.O. Box 500 Craig, AK 99921, or by email to...

Contribution of changing risk factors to the trend in breech presentation at term.

Science.gov (United States)

Bin, Yu Sun; Roberts, Christine L; Nicholl, Michael C; Nassar, Natasha; Ford, Jane B

2016-12-01

Recent population-wide changes in perinatal risk factors may affect rates of breech presentation at birth, and have implications for the provision of breech services and training in breech management. To investigate whether changes in maternal and pregnancy characteristics explain the observed trend in breech presentation at term. All singleton term (≥37 week) births in New South Wales during 2002-2012 were identified through birth and associated hospital records. Annual rates of breech presentation were determined. Logistic regression modelling was used to predict expected rates of breech presentation and these were compared with observed rates over time. A priori predictors included maternal age, country of birth, parity, smoking during pregnancy, diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, placenta praevia, previous singleton term breech, previous caesarean section, infant sex, gestational age, birthweight and congenital anomalies. Hospital and Medicare data were used to assess concomitant trends in external cephalic version. Among 914 147 singleton term births, 3.1% were breech at delivery. Rates of breech presentation declined from 3.6% in 2002 to 2.7% in 2012 (test for trend P breech presentation and previous caesarean section. However, use of external cephalic version appears to have increased over time. Breech presentation at delivery has decreased in New South Wales. Increased use of external cephalic version likely accounts for this decline, as changes in risk factors do not. © 2016 The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: the case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoeldraijer, Lenny; Bonneux, Luc; van Duin, Coen; van Wissen, Leo; Janssen, Fanny

2015-02-01

We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model. We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality. The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women. From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: Who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001–2011

Science.gov (United States)

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-01-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16–64 years old) for the period 2001–2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16–34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16–24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25–34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35–44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16–34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35–44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45–64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16–34 years, may have begun

Various Stone-Wales defects in phagraphene

Science.gov (United States)

Openov, L. A.; Podlivaev, A. I.

2016-08-01

Various Stone-Wales defects in phagraphene, which is a graphene allotrope, predicted recently are studied in terms of the nonorthogonal tight-binding model. The energies of the defect formation and the heights of energy barriers preventing the formation and annealing of the defects are found. Corresponding frequency factors in the Arrhenius formula are calculated. The evolution of the defect structure is studied in the real-time mode using the molecular dynamics method.

Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Paap (Richard)

1997-01-01

textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

Memory, Television and the Making of the BBC’s 'The Story Of Wales'

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steve Blandford

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The production of television history programming is a rich site for examining the dynamic relationship between history and memory. This article approaches these dynamics through original, empirical research of a specific case study, BBC Wales’ The Story of Wales (Green Bay for BBC Wales 2012. It analyses the commissioning, production and presentation of a landmark national history programme within the specific context of a small nation (Wales and provides insights into how television intervenes in the construction, revision and remembering of the national past. The role of national histories in the construction of memory and national identity is importance at a time when the legitimacy of nations and states is under question and when governmental and political settlements are under construction as is the case in the post-devolutionary United Kingdom.

Unothering" Wales. Domestication as a tourist marketing strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prieto Arranz, José Igor

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Tourists in Wales are overwhelmingly British and its national tourist organisation, Wales Tourist Board, although certainly attempting to widen its share of foreign visitors, does pay special attention to those promotional materials designed to target the domestic British readership. Such award-winning materials will be analysed in the present work, which places special emphasis on their two main features: on the one hand, their embedded intertextual nature; on the other, the obvious taming or domestication of Welshness. As a result, Wales is turned into a "gratifyingly dissimilar", even perfected version of England, mostly catering for the potential English tourist

Employers' Demand for and the Provision of Part-Time Higher Education for Employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Trotman-Dickenson, Danusia

1987-01-01

A study of public and private employers' demand for part-time higher education for their employees and the response of institutions is reported. The study focuses on Wales and on the regional economic and social trends affecting educational demand and supply. Improved communication between employers, employees, and institutions is recommended.…

Trends in drug overdose deaths in England and Wales 1993-98: methadone does not kill more people than heroin.

Science.gov (United States)

Hickman, Matthew; Madden, Peter; Henry, John; Baker, Allan; Wallace, Chris; Wakefield, Jon; Stimson, Gerry; Elliott, Paul

2003-04-01

To test the hypothesis that methadone is responsible for a greater increase in overdose deaths than heroin, and causes proportionally more overdose deaths than heroin at weekends. Multivariate analysis of 3961 death certificates mentioning heroin, morphine and/or methadone held on the Office for National Statistics drug-related poisoning mortality database from 1993 to 1998 in England and Wales. Percentage increase in deaths by year by drug, odds ratio (OR) of dying at the weekend from methadone-related overdose compared to dying from heroin/morphine overdose. From 1993 to 1998, annual opiate overdose deaths increased from 378 to 909. There was a 24.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 22-28%) yearly increase in heroin deaths compared to 9.4% (95% CI 6-13%) for methadone only. This difference was significant (P < 0.001 by test of interaction) after adjustment for sex, age group, polydrug use, area of residence and underlying cause of death. The largest number of deaths occurred on Saturday (673). The OR of death from methadone overdose on Saturday and Sunday was 1.48 (95% CI 1.29-1.71) for methadone-only deaths compared to dying from heroin/morphine at the weekend after adjustment for other covariates, but the OR was not significant (1.09, 95% CI 0.95-1.25) if the weekend was defined as Friday and Saturday. There was no evidence that the threefold increase in deaths over time was due to methadone. There was equivocal support only for the hypothesis that there was an excess of deaths from methadone at weekends. Increased interventions to prevent overdose among injectors in England and Wales are long overdue.

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

2008-05-01

Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

Topological anisotropy of stone-wales waves in graphenic fragments.

Science.gov (United States)

Ori, Ottorino; Cataldo, Franco; Putz, Mihai V

2011-01-01

Stone-Wales operators interchange four adjacent hexagons with two pentagon-heptagon 5|7 pairs that, graphically, may be iteratively propagated in the graphene layer, originating a new interesting structural defect called here Stone-Wales wave. By minimization, the Wiener index topological invariant evidences a marked anisotropy of the Stone-Wales defects that, topologically, are in fact preferably generated and propagated along the diagonal of the graphenic fragments, including carbon nanotubes and graphene nanoribbons. This peculiar edge-effect is shown in this paper having a predominant topological origin, leaving to future experimental investigations the task of verifying the occurrence in nature of wave-like defects similar to the ones proposed here. Graph-theoretical tools used in this paper for the generation and the propagation of the Stone-Wales defects waves are applicable to investigate isomeric modifications of chemical structures with various dimensionality like fullerenes, nanotubes, graphenic layers, schwarzites, zeolites.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

The fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Robards

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Estimates of fertility for the overseas-born based on the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR suggest that levels of childbearing are significantly higher among foreign-born women than women born in the UK. However, migration and timing of subsequent family formation mean that aggregate measures of fertility based on period TFRs may not be a useful indicator of the likely completed family size that migrant women will have at the end of their reproductive lives. Objective: The paper quantifies childbearing according to duration since migration among female migrants to England and Wales arriving between 2001 and 2011, and examines how these patterns differ according to age at arrival and country of birth. Methods: Data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study, a 1Š sample of the population of England and Wales, are used to identify the reported date of arrival in the UK and to estimate childbearing prior to and subsequent to arrival. Results: Fertility rates peak in the first one to four years subsequent to arrival among migrants from Pakistan and Bangladesh. Migrants from India and Poland show a delay in childbearing after migration to England and Wales, and lower fertility rates compared to migrants from Pakistan and Bangladesh, who show high fertility after migration at least for the first five years. Conclusions: There are large differences in the timing of fertility among migrants according to age at arrival and migrant country of origin, which are likely to be related to the reason for migration. Tempo distortions among some migrant groups mean that the period TFR is not necessarily a useful summary measure of the likely lifetime fertility of migrant groups.

Long-term effects of flooding on mortality in England and Wales, 1994-2005: controlled interrupted time-series analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Limited evidence suggests that being flooded may increase mortality and morbidity among affected householders not just at the time of the flood but for months afterwards. The objective of this study is to explore the methods for quantifying such long-term health effects of flooding by analysis of routine mortality registrations in England and Wales. Methods Mortality data, geo-referenced by postcode of residence, were linked to a national database of flood events for 1994 to 2005. The ratio of mortality in the post-flood year to that in the pre-flood year within flooded postcodes was compared with that in non-flooded boundary areas (within 5 km of a flood). Further analyses compared the observed number of flood-area deaths in the year after flooding with the number expected from analysis of mortality trends stratified by region, age-group, sex, deprivation group and urban-rural status. Results Among the 319 recorded floods, there were 771 deaths in the year before flooding and 693 deaths in the year after (post-/pre-flood ratio of 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 1.00). This ratio did not vary substantially by age, sex, population density or deprivation. A similar post-flood 'deficit' of deaths was suggested by the analyses based on observed/expected deaths. Conclusions The observed post-flood 'deficit' of deaths is counter-intuitive and difficult to interpret because of the possible influence of population displacement caused by flooding. The bias that might arise from such displacement remains unquantified but has important implications for future studies that use place of residence as a marker of exposure. PMID:21288358

Long-term effects of flooding on mortality in England and Wales, 1994-2005: controlled interrupted time-series analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardi Giovanni

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Limited evidence suggests that being flooded may increase mortality and morbidity among affected householders not just at the time of the flood but for months afterwards. The objective of this study is to explore the methods for quantifying such long-term health effects of flooding by analysis of routine mortality registrations in England and Wales. Methods Mortality data, geo-referenced by postcode of residence, were linked to a national database of flood events for 1994 to 2005. The ratio of mortality in the post-flood year to that in the pre-flood year within flooded postcodes was compared with that in non-flooded boundary areas (within 5 km of a flood. Further analyses compared the observed number of flood-area deaths in the year after flooding with the number expected from analysis of mortality trends stratified by region, age-group, sex, deprivation group and urban-rural status. Results Among the 319 recorded floods, there were 771 deaths in the year before flooding and 693 deaths in the year after (post-/pre-flood ratio of 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 1.00. This ratio did not vary substantially by age, sex, population density or deprivation. A similar post-flood 'deficit' of deaths was suggested by the analyses based on observed/expected deaths. Conclusions The observed post-flood 'deficit' of deaths is counter-intuitive and difficult to interpret because of the possible influence of population displacement caused by flooding. The bias that might arise from such displacement remains unquantified but has important implications for future studies that use place of residence as a marker of exposure.

Effect of Hydrogen Adsorption on the Stone-Wales Transformation in Small-Diameter Carbon Nanotubes

Science.gov (United States)

Openov, L. A.; Podlivaev, A. I.

2018-04-01

The effect of hydrogenation of (4, 0) and (3, 0) carbon nanotubes on the Stone-Wales transformation is studied in the framework of the nonorthogonal tight-binding model. It is shown that the atomic hydrogen adsorption can lead to both a decrease and an increase in the barriers for the direct and inverse transformations depending on the orientation of a rotating C-C bond with respect to the nanotube axis. The characteristic times of formation and annealing the Stone-Wales defects have been estimated. The Young's moduli have been calculated.

The Incidence of Thyroid Cancer in England and Wales over A Ten-Year Period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louise Marie Evans

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction The incidence of thyroid cancer has increased worldwide, whether a real or apparent increase is debated. Literature from the USA suggests greater diagnostic scrutiny, environmental and genetic factors may all play a part. This increase will result in a greater number of referrals for surgical assessment. This study examined the trend in incidence of thyroid cancer in England and Wales. Materials and Methods A retrospective study, using the HES database over the period 2000-2010. Data were extracted of all newly diagnosed thyroid cancers in England and Wales and the age at diagnosis. Data were examined for the change in incidence of thyroid cancer diagnosis dependent on the age group of the patient using the linear regression model. Results 45411 patients were identified. In England the incidence of thyroid cancer rose from 5.7/100,000 of the population in 2000 to 9.9/100,000 in 2010 and in Wales it rose from 3.5/100,000 in 2000 to 7.5/100,000. There was a statistical increase (P≤0.02 (t-stat >2 in the diagnosis of thyroid cancers across all age groups with exception of the 0-14 age group (P>0.5.  Conclusion There has been a statistical increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer. This is likely to impact on hospitals and cancer service resources. An increase in surgical demand and the coinciding ageing population highlights the importance of further investigation into the etiology, use of imaging, patient demographics, histology and overall mortality of this patient group.

Defining geo-habitats for groundwater ecosystem assessments: an example from England and Wales (UK)

Science.gov (United States)

Weitowitz, Damiano C.; Maurice, Louise; Lewis, Melinda; Bloomfield, John P.; Reiss, Julia; Robertson, Anne L.

2017-12-01

Groundwater ecosystems comprising micro-organisms and metazoans provide an important contribution to global biodiversity. Their complexity depends on geology, which determines the physical habitat available, and the chemical conditions within it. Despite this, methods of classifying groundwater habitats using geological data are not well established and researchers have called for higher resolution habitat frameworks. A novel habitat typology for England and Wales (UK) is proposed, which distinguishes 11 geological habitats (geo-habitats) on hydrogeological principles and maps their distribution. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical data are used to determine the characteristics of each geo-habitat, and demonstrate their differences. Using these abiotic parameters, a new method to determine abiotic habitat quality is then developed. The geo-habitats had significantly different characteristics, validating the classification system. All geo-habitats were highly heterogeneous, containing both high quality habitat patches that are likely to be suitable for fauna, and areas of low quality that may limit faunal distributions. Karstic and porous habitats generally were higher quality than fractured habitats. Overall, 70% of England and Wales are covered by lower quality fractured habitats, with only 13% covered by higher quality habitats. The main areas of high quality habitats occur in central England as north-south trending belts, possibly facilitating dispersal along this axis. They are separated by low quality geo-habitats that may prevent east-west dispersal of fauna. In south-west England and Wales suitable geo-habitats occur as small isolated patches. Overall, this paper provides a new national-scale typology that is adaptable for studies in other geographic areas.

Reconciling competing priorities in commissioning: the future of bone densitometry service for North Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Russell Ian

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Osteoporosis creates brittle bones susceptible to fracture, with resulting high levels of morbidity and mortality. Poor access to bone densitometry services for the residents of North Wales led to the Welsh Assembly Government offering capital to purchase a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA scanner, used to diagnose osteoporosis, for the region. The commissioning question for the six Local Health Boards across North Wales was where to site the new scanner. This decision needed to reflect current inequalities in access to services and concerns over inappropriate prescribing relative to Welsh norms. Methods Epidemiological, corporate and comparative healthcare needs assessments were performed. In addition, two cross-sectional surveys were conducted to determine the views of general practices and users of bone densitometry services resident in North Wales. An option appraisal and sensitivity analysis of 13 costed options for DXA scanning was conducted. Results We estimated that only 31% of the people in North Wales who met national guidelines were receiving DXA scans. There was definite inequity of access to the current service provided by area of residence. There was also evidence of inequity of access by age and sex. The most suitable option identified in the option appraisal was a bone densitometry service based in the central location of Llandudno. Conclusion The assessment identified significant unmet need for DXA scanning. A recommendation was made to improve access through the introduction of a new bone densitometry service based at Llandudno. This would double scanning provision provided and reduce travel costs and time for many North Wales residents. This recommendation was adopted by a joint commissioning group established by the six Local Health Boards in North Wales at the end of 2004 – evidence based commissioning in practice.

Support sought for petition on safer staffing levels in Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-01

RCN WALES is urging the public to sign an e-petition supporting draft legislation on safe staffing. The petition calls for support for the Safe Nursing Staffing Levels (Wales) Bill, drawn up by Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams.

Suicide and accidental deaths in children and adolescents in England and Wales, 2001-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Windfuhr, Kirsten; While, David; Hunt, Isabelle M; Shaw, Jenny; Appleby, Louis; Kapur, Nav

2013-12-01

To investigate the impact of narrative verdicts on suicide statistics among 10-19-year-olds; to identify the number and rate of suicide and accidental deaths, particularly in 10-14-year-olds. National cohort study. England and Wales. Mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) were used to calculate rates per 100,000 population for suicide (undetermined and suicide verdicts) and accidental deaths (poisoning, hanging) for those aged 10-14 and 15-19. Trends in rates over time (2001-2010) were investigated using Poisson regression. Interaction tests were carried out to determine differences in trends between the two time periods (2001-2005 and 2006-2010). There were 1523 suicides (2.25/100,000). Suicide rates were highest in those aged 15-19 years (4.04/100,000) and in males (3.14/100,000). Between 2001 and 2010, rates significantly decreased among those aged 15-19 years (incidence rate-ratio (IRR): 0.95; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.97), with no change in rates of accidental deaths (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.07). However, there was a significant interaction between the two time periods for accidental poisonings (2001-2005: IRR: 0.79 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.91); 2006-2010: IRR: 1.01 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.15), interaction p=0.012) and accidental hangings (2001-2005: IRR: 0.93 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.14); 2006-2010: IRR: 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.49), interaction=0.01) Undetermined deaths significantly decreased among females aged 15-19 yeras (IRR: 0.93; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.98). There were no significant trends among 10-14-year-olds. Rates of suicide are higher among older adolescents and males. There was a significant fall in suicide rates in males aged 15-19 years that was not accounted for by changes in rates of accidental death. The absence of a significant trend in suicide or accidental deaths in those aged 10-14 years may have been the result of small numbers. However, monitoring should continue to identify longitudinal trends in all young people.

Impact on alcohol purchasing of a ban on multi-buy promotions: a quasi-experimental evaluation comparing Scotland with England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Nakamura, Ryota; Suhrcke, Marc; Pechey, Rachel; Morciano, Marcello; Roland, Martin; Marteau, Theresa M

2014-01-01

Aims To evaluate the impact of the 2011 Scottish ban on multi-buy promotions of alcohol in retail stores. Design and setting Difference-in-differences analysis was used to estimate the impact of the ban on the volume of alcohol purchased by Scottish households, compared with those in England and Wales, between January 2010 and June 2012. Participants A total of 22 356 households in Scotland, England and Wales. Measurements Records of alcohol purchasing from each of four categories (beer and cider, wine, spirits and flavoured alcoholic beverages), as well as total volume of pure alcohol purchased. Findings Controlling for general time trends and household heterogeneity, there was no significant effect of the multi-buy ban in Scotland on volume of alcohol purchased either for the whole population or for individual socio-economic groups. There was also no significant effect on those who were large pre-ban purchasers of alcohol. Most multi-buys were for beer and cider or for wine. The frequency of shopping trips involving beer and cider purchases increased by 9.2% following the ban (P purchased on each trip decreased by 8.1% (P purchasing in the short term. Wider regulation of price promotion and price may be needed to achieve this. PMID:24251415

International trends in health science librarianship Part 8: the UK and the Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Latimer, Karen

2013-12-01

This is the 8th in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship with a focus on the UK and Ireland in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Future issues will track trends from Scotland and Wales.

Automated biosurveillance data from England and Wales, 1991-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Enki, Doyo G; Noufaily, Angela; Garthwaite, Paul H; Andrews, Nick J; Charlett, André; Lane, Chris; Farrington, C Paddy

2013-01-01

Outbreak detection systems for use with very large multiple surveillance databases must be suited both to the data available and to the requirements of full automation. To inform the development of more effective outbreak detection algorithms, we analyzed 20 years of data (1991-2011) from a large laboratory surveillance database used for outbreak detection in England and Wales. The data relate to 3,303 distinct types of infectious pathogens, with a frequency range spanning 6 orders of magnitude. Several hundred organism types were reported each week. We describe the diversity of seasonal patterns, trends, artifacts, and extra-Poisson variability to which an effective multiple laboratory-based outbreak detection system must adjust. We provide empirical information to guide the selection of simple statistical models for automated surveillance of multiple organisms, in the light of the key requirements of such outbreak detection systems, namely, robustness, flexibility, and sensitivity.

Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2018-03-05

Mar 5, 2018 ... Trend Over Time for Cholecystectomy following the Introduction of. Laparoscopy in a Nigerian Tertiary ... How to cite this article: Adisa AO, Lawal OO, Adejuyigbe O. Trend over time for cholecystectomy following .... The challenges with record keeping in the era of open cholecystectomy in our center made it ...

Time Trends in School Well-Being Among Adolescents in Oslo: Can Trends be Explained by Social Relationships?

OpenAIRE

Wilhelmsen, Tiril

2017-01-01

Even though well-being in the domain of school is important for mental health, time trend research of this topic is limited. In particular, there is a lack of research investigating differences between ethnic minority and majority students, and there is a lack of literature empirically exploring possible explanations for the time trends in school well-being. The aims of this study were to investigate time trends in school well-being among adolescents in Oslo, explore moderations by gender and...

Improving trauma imaging in Wales through Kotter's theory of change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maclean, D.F.W.; Vannet, N.

2016-01-01

Aim: To improve the practice of trauma computed tomography (CT) within Wales using recognised leadership techniques for change. Materials and methods: Royal College of Radiologists' (RCR) guidance, in addition to other key recent evidence, were used to form an aspirational standard. All centres across Wales with a major emergency department were included. Kotter's theory of change was utilised to facilitate an improvement in practice across the region, with larger units prioritised initially. Results: Of the 13 major emergency units in Wales, eight centres had no formal trauma CT protocol. Only one centre utilised the Bastion protocol (in comparison to 75% of major trauma centres). After the campaign to improve trauma imaging, seven centres now offer the Bastion protocol, with currently only three peripheral centres still without a procedure for whole-body CT. The two largest centres have implemented an emergency department pro forma. Conclusion: Trauma CT within Wales has significantly improved as a result of this project. Kotter's theory is demonstrated as an effective tool for facilitating a change in practice on a regional/national scale. - Highlights: • The practice of Trauma CT in Wales initially did not meet RCR guidance. • Kotter's theory of change was utilised to improve standards. • A superior quality of trauma imaging is now available across Wales.

Diet and coronary heart disease in England and Wales during and after the second world war.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, D J; Osmond, C

1986-03-01

During the second world war there were large changes in consumption of fats, fibre, and sugar in Britain. These changes matched recent recommendations made by the Committee on Medical Aspects of Food Policy (COMA) with the object of reducing the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD). It is widely believed that CHD mortality fell during the war. This paper re-examines CHD mortality among middle-aged people in England and Wales from 1931 to 1967. After allowance for changes in the rules for coding cause of death, and for the sharp increase in all-causes mortality in 1940, there is little to suggest that time trends in CHD were much influenced by the war. Because of confounding variables, this does not argue against the COMA report. However, it gives no support to the view that compliance with the recommendations on fat, fibre, and sugar will lead, by itself, to an appreciable fall in CHD mortality in middle-aged people.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...... are rather modest when individual exposures are assessed. Despite that, some exposures have been reported to be associated to early (e.g., polybrominated biphenyls) or delayed (e.g., lead) puberty. Here we shortly review the available data on recent trends in timing of puberty and the possible role...

Potential for cadaveric organ retrieval in New South Wales.

OpenAIRE

Hibberd, A. D.; Pearson, I. Y.; McCosker, C. J.; Chapman, J. R.; Macdonald, G. J.; Thompson, J. F.; O'Connell, D. L.; Mohacsi, P. J.; McLoughlin, M. P.; Spratt, P. M.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES--To measure the potential for cadaver organ retrieval in New South Wales and to determine the reasons for potential donors failing to become actual donors. DESIGN--Prospective audit of all patients dying in five hospitals in New South Wales between 1 December 1989 and 30 November 1990; quality assurance of the data by independent medical specialist and if disagreement by study committee. PATIENTS--2879 patients (100% of all deaths) yielding 364 patients with coma and 181 potential ...

Exploring experiences of cancer care in Wales: a thematic analysis of free-text responses to the 2013 Wales Cancer Patient Experience Survey (WCPES).

Science.gov (United States)

Bracher, Michael; Corner, Dame Jessica; Wagland, Richard

2016-09-02

To provide the first systematic analysis of a national (Wales) sample of free-text comments from patients with cancer, to determine emerging themes and insights regarding experiences of cancer care in Wales. Thematic analysis of free-text data from a population-based survey. Adult patients with a confirmed cancer diagnosis treated within a 3-month period during 2012 in the 7 health boards and 1 trust providing cancer care in Wales. Free-text categorised by theme, coded as positive or negative, with ratios. Overarching themes are identified incorporating comment categories. 4672 respondents (of n=7352 survey respondents) provided free-text comments. Data were coded using a multistage approach: (1) coding of comments into general categories (eg, nursing, surgery, etc), (2) coding of subcategories within main categories (eg, nursing care, nursing communication, etc), (3) cross-sectional analysis to identify themes cutting across categories, (4) mapping of categories/subcategories to corresponding closed questions in the Wales Cancer Patient Experience Survey (WCPES) data for comparison. Most free-text respondents (82%, n 3818) provided positive comments about their cancer care, with 49% (n=2313) giving a negative comment (ratio 0.6:1, negative-to-positive). 3172 respondents (67.9% of free-text respondents) provided a comment mapping to 1 of 4 overarching themes: communication (n=1673, 35.8% free-text respondents, a ratio of 1.0:1); waiting during the treatment and/or post-treatment phase (n=923, 19.8%, ratio 1.5:1); staffing and resource levels (n=671, 14.4% ratio 5.3:1); speed and quality of diagnostic care (n=374, 8.0%, ratio 1.5:1). Within these areas, constituent subthemes are discussed. This study presents specific areas of concern for patients with cancer, and reveals a number of themes present across the cancer journey. While the majority of comments were positive, analysis reveals concerns shared by significant numbers of respondents. Timely communication can

The spatialities of ageing: Evidencing increasing spatial polarisation between older and younger adults in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Albert Sabater

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background: With the proportion of older adults in Europe expected to grow significantly over the next few decades, a number of pertinent questions are raised about the socio-spatial processes that underlie residential age segregation, especially in circumstances where it may be increasing. Objective: We present evidence on whether, and to what degree, residential age segregation has changed across neighbourhoods in England and Wales since the 1990s. Methods: We examine the residential patterns of older adults (aged 65 and over compared to those of younger adults (aged 25-40 for neighbourhoods across the country, for neighbourhoods within districts, and for neighbourhoods within districts classified by type. The analyses use harmonised population data for small areas (Output Areas from the 1991, 2001, and 2011 Censuses of England and Wales. Results: The results reveal increasing segregation over time (1991-2011 between older and younger groups across neighbourhoods nationally. Although the index values of segregation tend to be higher in less urban areas, highlighting a strong age and life course dimension of the rural-urban divide, a rapid increase in age segregation is found in urban areas. Moreover, our findings suggest the existence of convergent clusters of increasing age segregation, particularly in urban settings (from small to large cities and former industrial areas in the North of England, thus providing evidence suggesting a further dimension of the North-South divide. Conclusions: The findings demonstrate a growing age bifurcation over time and space, as both older and younger age groups are increasingly living apart. Although the drivers and consequences of these trends in residential age segregation remain unclear, the potential challenge to policies of social cohesion underlines the importance of further research. Contribution: The findings contribute to current debates about relations between age groups and generations in

Radon atlas of England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, B.M.R.; Miles, J.C.H.; Bradley, E.J.; Rees, D.M.

2002-01-01

This new report brings together and updates the information in three earlier reports on radon levels in English and Welsh homes. In particular, data from measurements in over 400,000 homes in England and Wales are presented in tabular format. The tables give the data by various administrative divisions, down to electoral wards for Cornwall, Devon and Somerset and council areas elsewhere and to sector level of the postcode system. The radon probability maps are based on the national grid system and show significantly more locational detail than the previous publications, an extra division in the probability banding to coincide with current Government initiatives on radon in England and, in southwest England, more detailed probability mapping than before - by 1 km grid squares in place of the 5 km grid squares used in Wales and the rest of England. (author)

On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

OpenAIRE

Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

2015-01-01

Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

Real-time trend monitoring of gas compressor stations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Hardeveld, T. (Nova, an Alberta Corp., AB (Canada))

1991-02-01

The authors' company has developed a machinery health monitoring system (MHealth) for short-term and long-term historical trending and analysis of data from its 40 gas compressor stations. The author discusses the benefits of real-time trending in troubleshooting operations, in preventative maintenance scheduling and cites specific applications in the startup operations of several new gas compressor/centrifugal compressor units.

Trends in puberty timing in humans and environmental modifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toppari, Jorma; Juul, Anders

2010-01-01

Secular trends in timing of puberty appear to continue although under-nutrition has not been any longer a limiting factor for pubertal development. Now obesity and other environmental reasons have been suspected to cause this trend, and endocrine disrupting chemicals have become into focus...... as possible contributors. Epidemiological studies on endocrine disrupters are still scarce and show only weak associations between exposures and timing of puberty. Since genetic background explains 50-80% of variability in the timing of puberty, it is not surprising that the observed environmental effects...

Time trends of physical activity and television viewing time in Brazil: 2006-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Mielke, Grégore I; Hallal, Pedro C; Malta, Deborah C; Lee, I-Min

2014-08-15

Despite recent advances in surveillance of physical activity, data on time trends of physical activity in low and middle-income countries are lacking. This study describes time trends in physical activity and television viewing between 2006 and 2012 among Brazilian adults. Data from 371,271 adult participants (18 + years) in the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Illnesses using Telephone Survey (VIGITEL) were analysed. Time trends in leisure-time physical activity (≥ 5 days/wk; ≥ 30 min/day), transportation physical activity (using bicycle or walking for ≥ 30 minutes per day as a means of transportation to/from work) and proportion of participants spending more than three hours per day watching television were analysed. Annual changes according to sex, age and years of schooling were calculated. There was an increase in leisure-time physical activity from 12.8% in 2006 to 14.9% in 2012 (annual increase of 1.9%; p physical activity decreased 12.9% per year (p physical activity appears to be increasing, while television viewing time appears to be decreasing in recent years. However, transportation physical activity has been declining. These data are important for informing national public health policies.

33 CFR 334.1330 - Bering Strait, Alaska; naval restricted area off Cape Prince of Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... restricted area off Cape Prince of Wales. 334.1330 Section 334.1330 Navigation and Navigable Waters CORPS OF....1330 Bering Strait, Alaska; naval restricted area off Cape Prince of Wales. (a) The area. An area 2,000 feet wide extending from a point on Cape Prince of Wales marked by a triangular cable marker located...

International trends in health science librarianship Part 8: the UK and the Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

Latimer, Karen; Lawton, Aoife

2013-12-01

This is the 8th in a series of articles exploring international trends in health science librarianship with a focus on the UK and Ireland in the first decade of the 21st century. The invited authors are from Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Future issues will track trends from Scotland and Wales. © 2013 The authors. Health Information and Libraries Journal © 2013 Health Libraries Group.

Effect of hydrogen adsorption on the formation and annealing of Stone-Wales defects in graphene

Science.gov (United States)

Podlivaev, A. I.; Openov, L. A.

2015-12-01

The heights of energy barriers preventing the formation and annealing of Stone-Wales defects in graphene with a hydrogen atom adsorbed on the defect or in its immediate vicinity have been calculated using the atomistic computer simulation. It has been shown that, in the presence of hydrogen, both barriers are significantly lower than those in the absence of hydrogen. Based on the analysis of the potential energy surface, the frequency factors have been calculated for two different paths of the Stone-Wales transformation, and the temperature dependences of the corresponding annealing times of the defects have been found. The results obtained have been compared with the first-principles calculations and molecular dynamics data.

Suicide in murderers in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Lester, David

2003-06-01

In England and Wales, the suicide rate of murderers was positively associated with the male suicide rate in the general population, and both of these rates were positively associated with the unemployment rate.

The Origins and Growth of Ragged Schools in Wales, 1847-c. 1900.

Science.gov (United States)

Grigg, Russell

2002-01-01

Investigates the establishment of ragged schools in nineteenth century Wales. States they dealt with the many shabbily clad, underprivileged youth found roaming the streets. Explains Wales focused on creating church and boarding schools. Concludes that other schools eventually provided welfare based services which caused ragged school's demise.…

Identifying probable suicide clusters in wales using national mortality data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Phillip Jones

Full Text Available Up to 2% of suicides in young people may occur in clusters i.e., close together in time and space. In early 2008 unprecedented attention was given by national and international news media to a suspected suicide cluster among young people living in Bridgend, Wales. This paper investigates the strength of statistical evidence for this apparent cluster, its size, and temporal and geographical limits.The analysis is based on official mortality statistics for Wales for 2000-2009 provided by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS. Temporo-spatial analysis was performed using Space Time Permutation Scan Statistics with SaTScan v9.1 for suicide deaths aged 15 and over, with a sub-group analysis focussing on cases aged 15-34 years. These analyses were conducted for deaths coded by ONS as: (i suicide or of undetermined intent (probable suicides and (ii for a combination of suicide, undetermined, and accidental poisoning and hanging (possible suicides. The temporo-spatial analysis did not identify any clusters of suicide or undetermined intent deaths (probable suicides. However, analysis of all deaths by suicide, undetermined intent, accidental poisoning and accidental hanging (possible suicides identified a temporo-spatial cluster (p = 0.029 involving 10 deaths amongst 15-34 year olds centred on the County Borough of Bridgend for the period 27(th December 2007 to 19(th February 2008. Less than 1% of possible suicides in younger people in Wales in the ten year period were identified as being cluster-related.There was a possible suicide cluster in young people in Bridgend between December 2007 and February 2008. This cluster was smaller, shorter in duration, and predominantly later than the phenomenon that was reported in national and international print media. Further investigation of factors leading to the onset and termination of this series of deaths, in particular the role of the media, is required.

The geography of early childhood mortality in England and Wales, 1881-1911

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannaliis Jaadla

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Considerable regional variation existed in 19th-century infant mortality (IMR in England and Wales. Objective: This study estimates early childhood mortality (ECMR for over 2,000 registration subdistricts (RSDs of England and Wales and analyses spatial and temporal variations in IMR and ECMR between 1881 and 1911. Methods: The combination of mortality statistics from the Registrar General and individual-level census data from the Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM project is used to estimate spatial models of the relationship between early childhood death rates and a range of district-specific contextual variables. Results: All regions of England and Wales experienced noticeable decline in early childhood mortality, but the spatial patterns were remarkably persistent, with high mortality in London and in the mining and textile centres. The earlier decline of childhood than infant mortality produced a widening gap between them, and in early phases this development was concentrated along the East-Midlands coastal area from Suffolk to North Yorkshire, and in mid-Wales. This gap continued to widen, and in 1911 IMR was at least twice as high as ECMR in most parts of England and Wales. Conclusions: The changing spatial pattern of ECMR was influenced by a set of factors over and above those that influenced IMR, and these were related more to the disease environment than to social and economic influences. Contribution: These new estimates of early childhood mortality, at a finer spatial scale than previously possible, highlight the vast spatial variation in mortality in England and Wales. It is likely that these regional differences also manifest in variation in other demographic outcomes.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Translanguaging in Bilingual Schools in Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Bryn

2017-01-01

This article examines the use of translanguaging as a pedagogical tool to support learning within bilingual classrooms in schools in Wales. Translanguaging is considered within non-pedagogic and pedagogic school contexts; hence, a distinction is made between universal and classroom translanguaging. Translanguaging has evoked debate surrounding the…

Deprivation and mortality in non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Jessop, E G

1996-10-01

To test the hypothesis that the relationship between deprivation and mortality is weaker among residents of non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales than among residents of metropolitan areas. This study compared mortality, expressed as standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), in residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan districts at three levels of deprivation classified by an electoral ward deprivation score and by home and car ownership. SMRs were computed for all causes of death, for bronchitis and asthma (ICD9 codes 490-493), and for accident, violence, and poisoning (ICD9 codes 800-999). England and Wales. Members of the longitudinal study of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, a quasi-random 1% sample of the population of England and Wales. There was an association between deprivation and mortality which was clear for all cause mortality, more noticeable for respiratory disease, and less clear for deaths from accident, violence, and poison. In general, the results showed a remarkable similarity between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. This study does not support the hypothesis that the relationship between mortality and deprivation differs between residents of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of England and Wales.

Landslide research in the South Wales coalfield

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentley, S.P.; Siddle, H.J.

1996-01-01

The areal density of landslides in the coalfield of South Wales is one of the highest in the UK. During the past 100 years landsliding has had considerable impact, causing structural damage and loss of life. Most of the landslides were initiated under periglacial conditions but many became reactivated due to the activities of man, particularly, during the late 19th century when widespread urban and industrial development commenced in the Welsh valleys. A number of the area's larger landslides are first-time slides which occurred during the past 100 years. This paper sets out to chart the history of landslide research in the coalfield, which began through work by mining engineers. 47 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs

Three measures of longevity: time trends and record values

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Canudas-Romo, V

2010-01-01

at birth increased from a level of 44 years in Sweden in 1840 to 82 years in Japan in 2005. The record median age at death shows increasing patterns similar to those observed in life expectancy at birth. However, the record modal age at death changes very little until the second half of the twentieth......This article examines the trend over time in the measures of “typical” longevity experienced by members of a population: life expectancy at birth, and the median and modal ages at death. The article also analyzes trends in record values observed for all three measures. The record life expectancy...... time from a dominance of child mortality reductions to a dominance of adult mortality reductions, which became evident by studying trends in the record modal age at death....

Methodological issues in analyzing time trends in biologic fertility: protection bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Key, Jane; Best, Nicky; Joffe, Michael

2009-01-01

One method of assessing biologic fertility is to measure time to pregnancy (TTP). Accidental pregnancies do not generate a valid TTP value and lead to nonrandom missing data if couples experiencing accidental pregnancies are more fertile than the general population. If factors affecting the rate...... of fertility trends in Europe over the past 50 years. Couples experiencing accidental pregnancies tended to be more fertile than the general population. However, trends in accidental pregnancy rates were inconsistent across countries and were insufficient to produce substantial bias in fertility trends...... of accidental pregnancies, such as availability of effective contraception and induced abortion, vary over time, then the result may be protection bias in the estimates of fertility time trends. Six European data sets were analyzed to investigate whether evidence of protection bias exists in TTP studies...

The maldistribution of general practitioners in England and Wales: 1974–2003

Science.gov (United States)

Hann, Mark; Gravelle, Hugh

2004-01-01

Background: The geographical distribution of general practitioners (GPs) is a persistent policy concern within the National Health Service. Maldistribution across family health service authorities in England and Wales fell between 1974 and the mid-1980s but then remained, at best, constant until the mid-1990s. Aim: To estimate levels of maldistribution over the period 1994–2003 and to examine the long-term trend in maldistribution from 1974–2003. Design: Annual snapshots from the GP census. Setting: One hundred 2001 ‘frozen’ health authorities in England and Wales for 1994–2003 and 98 family health service authorities for 1974–1995. Method: Ratios of GPs to raw and need-adjusted populations were calculated for each health authority for each year using four methods of need adjustment: age-related capitation payments, national age- and sex-specific consultation rates, national age- and sex-specific limiting long-term illness rates, and health authority-specific mortality. Three summary measures of maldistribution across health authorities in the GP to population ratio — the decile ratio, the Gini coefficient, and the Atkinson index — were calculated for each year. Results: Maldistribution of GPs as measured by the Gini coefficient and Atkinson index increased from the mid-1980s to 2003, but the decile ratio showed little change over the entire 1974–2003 period. Unrestricted GP principals and equivalents were more equitably distributed than other types of GP. Conclusion: The 20% increase in the number of unrestricted GPs between 1985 and 2003 did not lead to a more equal distribution. PMID:15588532

Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994-2006: findings from Europe and North America.

Science.gov (United States)

Molcho, Michal; Craig, Wendy; Due, Pernille; Pickett, William; Harel-Fisch, Yossi; Overpeck, Mary

2009-09-01

To identify trends over 12 years in the prevalence of bullying and associated victimization among adolescents in North American and European countries. Cross-sectional self-report surveys were obtained from nationally representative samples of 11-15 year old school children in 21 countries in 1993/94 and in 27 countries in each of 1997/98, 2001/02 and 2005/06. Measures included involvement in bullying as either a perpetrator and/or victim. Consistent decreases in the prevalence of bullying were reported between 1993/94 to 2005/06 in most countries. Geographic patterns show consistent decreases in bullying in Western European countries and in most Eastern European countries. An increase or no change in prevalence was evident in almost all English speaking countries participating in the study (England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Canada, but not in the USA). Study findings demonstrated a significant decrease in involvement in bullying behaviour in most participating countries. This is encouraging news for policy-makers and practitioners working in the field of bullying prevention.

A Comparison of Spatio-Temporal Disease Mapping Approaches Including an Application to Ischaemic Heart Disease in New South Wales, Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig Anderson

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The field of spatio-temporal modelling has witnessed a recent surge as a result of developments in computational power and increased data collection. These developments allow analysts to model the evolution of health outcomes in both space and time simultaneously. This paper models the trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD in New South Wales, Australia over an eight-year period between 2006 and 2013. A number of spatio-temporal models are considered, and we propose a novel method for determining the goodness-of-fit for these models by outlining a spatio-temporal extension of the Moran’s I statistic. We identify an overall decrease in the rates of IHD, but note that the extent of this health improvement varies across the state. In particular, we identified a number of remote areas in the north and west of the state where the risk stayed constant or even increased slightly.

Distribution of cocaine on banknotes in general circulation in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Aitken, C G G; Wilson, A; Sleeman, R; Morgan, B E M; Huish, J

2017-01-01

A study of the quantities of cocaine on banknotes in general circulation was conducted to investigate regional variations across England and Wales. No meaningful support was found for the proposition that there is regional variation in the quantities of cocaine in banknotes in general circulation in England and Wales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Chaolong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Economic growth and health progress in England and Wales: 160 years of a changing relation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tapia Granados, José A

2012-03-01

Using data for England and Wales during the years 1840-2000, a negative relation is found between economic growth--measured by the rate of growth of gross domestic product (GDP)--and health progress--as indexed by the annual increase in life expectancy at birth (LEB). That is, the lower is the rate of growth of the economy, the greater is the annual increase in LEB for both males and females. This effect is much stronger, however, in 1900-1950 than in 1950-2000, and is very weak in the 19th century. It appears basically at lag zero, though some short-lag effects of the same negative sign are found. In the other direction of causality, there are very small effects of the change in LEB on economic growth. These results add to an emerging consensus that in the context of long-term declining trends, mortality oscillates procyclically during the business cycle, declining faster in recessions. Therefore, LEB increases faster during recessions than during expansions. The investigation also shows how the relation between economic growth and health progress changed in England and Wales during the study period. No evidence of cointegration between income--as indexed by GDP or GDP per capita--and health--as indexed by LEB--is found. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-trends in gastroprotection with NSAIDs

OpenAIRE

Valkhoff , Vera E.; Van Soest , Eva Marianne; Sturkenboom , Miriam C; Kuipers , Ernst J

2010-01-01

Abstract Background: Preventive strategies are advocated in patients at risk of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). Aim: We examined time trends in preventive strategies. Methods: In a study population comprising of 50,126 NSAID users ? 50 yrs from the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we considered two preventive strategies: co-prescription of gastroprotective agents and prescription of a cyc...

Traumatic brain injury in England and Wales: prospective audit of epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, T; Bouamra, O; Woodford, M; Lecky, F; Hutchinson, P J

2016-01-01

Objectives To provide a comprehensive assessment of the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) relating to epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality across specialist units. Design The Trauma Audit and Research Network collects data prospectively on patients suffering trauma across England and Wales. We analysed all data collected on patients with TBI between April 2014 and June 2015. Setting Data were collected on patients presenting to emergency departments across 187 hospitals including 26 with specialist neurosurgical services, incorporating factors previously identified in the Ps14 multivariate logistic regression (Ps14n) model multivariate TBI outcome prediction model. The frequency and timing of secondary transfer to neurosurgical centres was assessed. Results We identified 15 820 patients with TBI presenting to neurosurgical centres directly (6258), transferred from a district hospital to a neurosurgical centre (3682) and remaining in a district general hospital (5880). The commonest mechanisms of injury were falls in the elderly and road traffic collisions in the young, which were more likely to present in coma. In severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8), the median time from admission to imaging with CT scan is 0.5 hours. Median time to craniotomy from admission is 2.6 hours and median time to intracranial pressure monitoring is 3 hours. The most frequently documented complication of severe TBI is bronchopneumonia in 5% of patients. Risk-adjusted W scores derived from the Ps14n model indicate that no neurosurgical unit fell outside the 3 SD limits on a funnel plot. Conclusions We provide the first comprehensive report of the management of TBI in England and Wales, including data from all neurosurgical units. These data provide transparency and suggests equity of access to high-quality TBI management provided in England and Wales. PMID:27884843

Co-operation and conflict under hard and soft contracting regimes: case studies from England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, David; Allen, Pauline; Doheny, Shane; Petsoulas, Christina; Vincent-Jones, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper examines NHS secondary care contracting in England and Wales in a period which saw increasing policy divergence between the two systems. At face value, England was making greater use of market levers and utilising harder-edged service contracts incorporating financial penalties and incentives, while Wales was retreating from the 1990 s internal market and emphasising cooperation and flexibility in the contracting process. But there were also cross-border spill-overs involving common contracting technologies and management cultures that meant that differences in on-the-ground contracting practices might be smaller than headline policy differences suggested. The nature of real-world contracting behaviour was investigated by undertaking two qualitative case studies in England and two in Wales, each based on a local purchaser/provider network. The case studies involved ethnographic observations and interviews with staff in primary care trusts (PCTs) or local health boards (LHBs), NHS or Foundation trusts, and the overseeing Strategic Health Authority or NHS Wales regional office, as well as scrutiny of relevant documents. Wider policy differences between the two NHS systems were reflected in differing contracting frameworks, involving regional commissioning in Wales and commissioning by either a PCT, or co-operating pair of PCTs in our English case studies, and also in different oversight arrangements by higher tiers of the service. However, long-term relationships and trust between purchasers and providers had an important role in both systems when the financial viability of organisations was at risk. In England, the study found examples where both PCTs and trusts relaxed contractual requirements to assist partners faced with deficits. In Wales, news of plans to end the purchaser/provider split meant a return to less precisely-specified block contracts and a renewed concern to build cooperation between LHB and trust staff. The interdependency of local

Marine Science in Southern Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

1980-11-05

George Deacon, founder and formerly head of the UK Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, and Sir Alister Hardy, professor emeritus from Oxford University... head up the new oceandraphy program at its inception. Undergraduate teaching began in 1968 with 30 students, and the first gradu- ates in oceanography...Wales. Zoology Prof. E.W. Knight-Jones collaborates with his wife, Phyllis, in the study of the nervous systems, behavior, and embryology of enteropneusta

Comparison of elderly suicide rates among migrants in England and Wales with their country of origin.

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Ajit; Lindesay, James; Dennis, Mick

2009-03-01

The black and minority ethnic (BME) elderly population size in England and Wales has progressively increased over the last three decades. Only two studies, both well over a decade old, have compared suicide rates in BME groups in England and Wales with those in their country of origin. A study comparing suicide rates among elderly migrants in England and Wales and in their country of origin using the latest available mortality data from the Office of National Statistics and the World Health Organization was conducted. There were wide variations in standardised mortality ratios for elderly suicides among migrants from different countries compared with those born in England and Wales and in their country of origin. There was convergence towards elderly suicide rates for England and Wales in some migrant groups in males in the age-bands 65-74 years and 75 + years, and in females in the age-band 75 + years. However, males aged 75 + years from most migrant groups had higher rates than those born in England and Wales. A more detailed analysis of suicide of older people from migrant groups is required to determine vulnerability and protective influences.

Seasonal adjustment methods and real time trend-cycle estimation

CERN Document Server

Bee Dagum, Estela

2016-01-01

This book explores widely used seasonal adjustment methods and recent developments in real time trend-cycle estimation. It discusses in detail the properties and limitations of X12ARIMA, TRAMO-SEATS and STAMP - the main seasonal adjustment methods used by statistical agencies. Several real-world cases illustrate each method and real data examples can be followed throughout the text. The trend-cycle estimation is presented using nonparametric techniques based on moving averages, linear filters and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, taking recent advances into account. The book provides a systematical treatment of results that to date have been scattered throughout the literature. Seasonal adjustment and real time trend-cycle prediction play an essential part at all levels of activity in modern economies. They are used by governments to counteract cyclical recessions, by central banks to control inflation, by decision makers for better modeling and planning and by hospitals, manufacturers, builders, transportat...

Hydrogeological reconnaissance study: Dyfi Valley, Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glendining, S.J.

1981-10-01

This report describes work carried out for the Department of the Environment as part of its research programme into radioactive waste management. It presents an account of a hydrogeological reconnaissance study in the Dyfi Valley area of Central Wales. Initially the purposes of such a study are given and the assumptions used in deriving parameters such as flow volume, path length and transit time in areas of massive fractured rocks are described. Using these assumptions with geological, topographic and hydrometeorological data the potential ranges in properties such as bulk hydraulic conductivity, path lengths, hydraulic gradients and volumes of groundwater flow have been determined. These ranges have been used to estimate solute transport model parameters. The limitations and usefulness of the reconnaissance study in planning research and siting exploratory boreholes in the Dyfi area are discussed. (author)

The Decline and Revival of Music Education in New South Wales Schools, 1920-1956

Science.gov (United States)

Chaseling, Marilyn; Boyd, William E.

2014-01-01

This paper overviews the decline and revival of music education in New South Wales schools from 1920 to 1956. Commencing with a focus on vocal music during the period up to 1932, a time of decline in music teaching, the paper examines initiatives introduced in 1933 to address shortcomings in music education, and the subsequent changes in…

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Geographic distribution of lung and stomach cancers in England and Wales over 50 years: changing and unchanging patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Swerdlow, A J; dos Santos Silva, I

1991-05-01

The distribution of cancers of the lung and stomach in the counties of England and Wales in 1968-81 was mapped, and compared to the distribution in the country in 1921-30 described by Stocks. The high risk of stomach cancer in North Wales noted by Stocks was found still to exist in each sex, although its disparity from the rest of the country has diminished. In general the geographic distribution of stomach cancer in both periods has paralleled that of post-neonatal mortality, at the same time and earlier, as an index of general poverty, but postneonatal mortality in North Wales has not been exceptionally high. In 1921-30 the highest risk of lung cancer was in and around London. In the modern data this was still true for older women, but for men and women under 45 years of age, and to a lesser extent for older men, the pattern has changed greatly; the epidemic has moved north, and highest risk is now in Northumberland and Durham. This spread appears to have occurred earlier for men than for women, and for urban than for rural areas, occurring latest of all for women in rural areas. Regional disparity has also increased, especially in males: risks in the northern regions are now over twice those in much of Wales and the South.

Law and Order...and the Prince of Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Bernard, Thomas L.

1970-01-01

Brief historical account setting forth the manner of fusion of a number of races to become the British, and the significant part played by the very first Prince of Wales in initiating this process. (RJ)

Modelling the force of infection for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in injecting drug users in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hope VD

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Injecting drug use is a key risk factor, for several infections of public health importance, especially hepatitis B (HBV and hepatitis C (HCV. In England and Wales, where less than 1% of the population are likely to be injecting drug users (IDUs, approximately 38% of laboratory reports of HBV, and 95% of HCV reports are attributed to injecting drug use. Methods Voluntary unlinked anonymous surveys have been performed on IDUs in contact with specialist agencies throughout England and Wales. Since 1990 more than 20,000 saliva samples from current IDUs have been tested for markers of infection for HBV, HCV testing has been included since 1998. The analysis here considers those IDUs tested for HBV and HCV (n = 5,682 from 1998–2003. This study derives maximum likelihood estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible IDUs acquire infection for HBV and HCV in the IDU population and their trends over time and injecting career length. The presence of individual heterogeneity of risk behaviour and background HBV prevalence due to routes of transmission other than injecting are also considered. Results For both HBV and HCV, IDUs are at greatest risk from infection in their first year of injecting (Forces of infection in new initiates 1999–2003: HBV = 0.1076 95% C.I: 0.0840–0.1327 HCV = 0.1608 95% C.I: 0.1314–0.1942 compared to experienced IDUs (Force of infection in experienced IDUs 1999–2003: HBV = 0.0353 95% C.I: 0.0198–0.0596, HCV = 0.0526 95% C.I: 0.0310–0.0863 although independently of this there is evidence of heterogeneity of risk behaviour with a small number of IDUs at increased risk of infection. No trends in the FOI over time were detected. There was only limited evidence of background HBV infection due to factors other than injecting. Conclusion The models highlight the need to increase interventions that target new initiates to injecting to reduce the transmission of blood-borne viruses

Understanding drivers of Demand for Emergency Service Trends in Years 2010-2014 in New South Wales: An initial overview of the DESTINY project.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinh, Michael M; Berendsen Russell, Saartje; Bein, Kendall J; Chalkley, Dane; Muscatello, David; Paoloni, Richard; Ivers, Rebecca

2016-04-01

This study aims to describe the general characteristics and data definitions used in a population-based data set of ED presentations in New South Wales (NSW), used to form the basis of future-trend analyses. Retrospective analysis of the Emergency Department Data Collection registry, which provided clinical and demographic information of ED presentations across all EDs in NSW between 2010 and 2014. Presenting problems and ED diagnoses were classified using broad clinical categories including injury/musculoskeletal, respiratory, cardiovascular, ear nose and throat, and mental health. Presentations were linked by patient to allow for analysis of representations, and population data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. There were 11.8 million presentations that were analysed from 150 EDs (80.6% of all EDs). The rate of ED presentations was highest in those aged 85 years and older and appears to increase across all age groups between 2010 and 2014. The most common ED diagnosis categories were injury/musculoskeletal (27.5%) followed by abdominal/gastrointestinal (12.3%), respiratory (9%) and cardiovascular (8%). Both the Systematised Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (66%) and the International Classification of Diseases (24%) were used to code ED diagnoses. The elderly population had the highest rate of ED attendances. The use of diverse diagnosis classifications and source information systems may present problems with further analysis. Patterns and characteristics of ED presentations in NSW were broadly consistent with those reported in other states in Australia. © 2016 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Courtship, sex and poverty: illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Muir, Angela Joy

2018-01-01

This article sheds new light on illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Britain through an analysis of evidence from 36 parishes across the former Welsh counties Montgomeryshire and Radnorshire. Quantitative analysis of illegitimacy ratios demonstrates that levels were significantly higher in certain, but not all, parts of Wales in the eighteenth century. This evidence is considered in relation to explanatory frameworks used in the analysis of English data, which attempt to account for rising levels through cultural changes that influenced premarital sexual behaviour, and economic opportunities created by industrialization. Welsh evidence appears to present a challenge to these understandings in two key ways: Wales was linguistically different and lacked certain cultural markers which some historians have associated with an eighteenth-century 'sexual revolution', and because the highest levels of illegitimacy were found in agricultural regions of Wales which experienced little or no industrial change. It is argued that Welsh illegitimacy was influenced by a combination of courtship-led marriage customs, a decline in traditional forms of social control and worsening economic circumstances which, on closer examination, appear remarkably similar to London. This analysis provides further evidence that illegitimacy in eighteenth-century Britain was a deeply complex phenomenon governed by diverse regionally specific social and economic influences.

How many people will need palliative care in 2040? Past trends, future projections and implications for services.

Science.gov (United States)

Etkind, S N; Bone, A E; Gomes, B; Lovell, N; Evans, C J; Higginson, I J; Murtagh, F E M

2017-05-18

Current estimates suggest that approximately 75% of people approaching the end-of-life may benefit from palliative care. The growing numbers of older people and increasing prevalence of chronic illness in many countries mean that more people may benefit from palliative care in the future, but this has not been quantified. The present study aims to estimate future population palliative care need in two high-income countries. We used mortality statistics for England and Wales from 2006 to 2014. Building on previous diagnosis-based approaches, we calculated age- and sex-specific proportions of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses to estimate the prevalence of palliative care need in the population. We calculated annual change over the 9-year period. Using explicit assumptions about change in disease prevalence over time, and official mortality forecasts, we modelled palliative care need up to 2040. We also undertook separate projections for dementia, cancer and organ failure. By 2040, annual deaths in England and Wales are projected to rise by 25.4% (from 501,424 in 2014 to 628,659). If age- and sex-specific proportions with palliative care needs remain the same as in 2014, the number of people requiring palliative care will grow by 25.0% (from 375,398 to 469,305 people/year). However, if the upward trend observed from 2006 to 2014 continues, the increase will be of 42.4% (161,842 more people/year, total 537,240). In addition, disease-specific projections show that dementia (increase from 59,199 to 219,409 deaths/year by 2040) and cancer (increase from 143,638 to 208,636 deaths by 2040) will be the main drivers of increased need. If recent mortality trends continue, 160,000 more people in England and Wales will need palliative care by 2040. Healthcare systems must now start to adapt to the age-related growth in deaths from chronic illness, by focusing on integration and boosting of palliative care across health and social care disciplines. Countries with

Radionuclide levels in food, animals and agricultural products. Post Chernobyl monitoring in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

Data are presented in the following lists: 1) General Monitoring results, for England and Wales, presented separately (milk, milk products, dairy, vegetables, fruit, meat, fish, game, herbage, honey). 2) Restricted area sheep monitoring results, England and Wales presented separately. (U.K.)

Molybdenum distributions and variability in drinking water from England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Smedley, P L; Cooper, D M; Lapworth, D J

2014-10-01

An investigation has been carried out of molybdenum in drinking water from a selection of public supply sources and domestic taps across England and Wales. This was to assess concentrations in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) health-based value for Mo in drinking water of 70 μg/l and the decision to remove the element from the list of formal guideline values. Samples of treated drinking water from 12 water supply works were monitored up to four times over an 18-month period, and 24 domestic taps were sampled from three of their supply areas. Significant (p  0.05) were detected. Tap water samples collected from three towns (North Wales, the English Midlands, and South East England) supplied uniquely by upland reservoir water, river water, and Chalk groundwater, respectively, also showed a remarkable uniformity in Mo concentrations at each location. Within each, the variability was very small between houses (old and new), between pre-flush and post-flush samples, and between the tap water and respective source water samples. The results indicate that water distribution pipework has a negligible effect on supplied tap water Mo concentrations. The findings contrast with those for Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, and Cd, which showed significant differences (p water samples. In two pre-flush samples, concentrations of Ni or Pb were above drinking water limits, although in all cases, post-flush waters were compliant. The high concentrations, most likely derived from metal pipework in the domestic distribution system, accumulated during overnight stagnation. The concentrations of Mo observed in British drinking water, in all cases less than 2 μg/l, were more than an order of magnitude below the WHO health-based value and suggest that Mo is unlikely to pose a significant health or water supply problem in England and Wales.

Time Trends in Antipsychotic Drug Use in Patients with Dementia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nørgaard, Ane; Jensen-Dahm, Christina; Gasse, Christiane

2015-01-01

: To investigate time trends in use of antipsychotics and other psychotropic drugs in dementia care. METHODS: The study included longitudinal data on all Danish residents ≥65 years. The study population was defined on January 1 of each year from 2000-2012. Data included prescriptions, discharge diagnoses......, and somatic and psychiatric comorbidities. Multivariate time trend analyses of psychotropic drug use in patients with dementia within 4-year age bands were performed. RESULTS: Overall, among patients with dementia the prevalence of antipsychotic drug use decreased from 31.3% in 2000 to 20.4% in 2012...

Applications of MIDAS regression in analysing trends in water quality

Science.gov (United States)

Penev, Spiridon; Leonte, Daniela; Lazarov, Zdravetz; Mann, Rob A.

2014-04-01

We discuss novel statistical methods in analysing trends in water quality. Such analysis uses complex data sets of different classes of variables, including water quality, hydrological and meteorological. We analyse the effect of rainfall and flow on trends in water quality utilising a flexible model called Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS). This model arises because of the mixed frequency in the data collection. Typically, water quality variables are sampled fortnightly, whereas the rain data is sampled daily. The advantage of using MIDAS regression is in the flexible and parsimonious modelling of the influence of the rain and flow on trends in water quality variables. We discuss the model and its implementation on a data set from the Shoalhaven Supply System and Catchments in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Information criteria indicate that MIDAS modelling improves upon simplistic approaches that do not utilise the mixed data sampling nature of the data.

Changing trends in reproductive/lifestyle factors in UK women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Glazer, Clara; Burnell, Matthew

2017-01-01

of the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort analysis. SETTING: Population cohort invited between 2001 and 2005 from age-sex registers of 27 Primary Care Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and recruited through 13 National Health Service......-reported data on reproductive factors provided at recruitment were explored using tabular and graphical summaries to examine for differences between the birth cohorts. OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in mean age at menarche and menopause, use of oral contraceptives, change in family size, infertility treatments, tubal...... to reflect the reproductive history of the UK female postmenopausal population of similar age. Since these are risk factors for hormone-related cancers, these trends are important in understanding the changing incidence of these cancers. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: International Standard Randomised Controlled...

Industrial hygiene survey. IMC, Phosphate Chemical Complex, New Wales, Florida

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephenson, F.; Cassady, M.

1977-10-01

An industrial hygiene survey was conducted by NIOSH at IMC Phosphate Chemical Complex, New Wales, Florida, on June 7-11, 1976, as part of a study of the phosphate industry. Phosphate fertilizer manufacturing, the plant, and the medical, safety, and industrial hygiene programs are described. During the study 8-hour time weighted averages were determined for exposure to arsenic, cadmium, chromium, vanadium, phosphoric acid, and sulfuric acid for workers involved in cleaning out phosphoric acid reactor vessels. General area samples were collected for fluorides, radon, and uranium. Several samples were above the NIOSH recommended levels for arsenic and chromium

Traumatic brain injury in England and Wales: prospective audit of epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, T; Helmy, A; Bouamra, O; Woodford, M; Lecky, F; Hutchinson, P J

2016-11-24

To provide a comprehensive assessment of the management of traumatic brain injury (TBI) relating to epidemiology, complications and standardised mortality across specialist units. The Trauma Audit and Research Network collects data prospectively on patients suffering trauma across England and Wales. We analysed all data collected on patients with TBI between April 2014 and June 2015. Data were collected on patients presenting to emergency departments across 187 hospitals including 26 with specialist neurosurgical services, incorporating factors previously identified in the Ps14 multivariate logistic regression (Ps14 n ) model multivariate TBI outcome prediction model. The frequency and timing of secondary transfer to neurosurgical centres was assessed. We identified 15 820 patients with TBI presenting to neurosurgical centres directly (6258), transferred from a district hospital to a neurosurgical centre (3682) and remaining in a district general hospital (5880). The commonest mechanisms of injury were falls in the elderly and road traffic collisions in the young, which were more likely to present in coma. In severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) ≤8), the median time from admission to imaging with CT scan is 0.5 hours. Median time to craniotomy from admission is 2.6 hours and median time to intracranial pressure monitoring is 3 hours. The most frequently documented complication of severe TBI is bronchopneumonia in 5% of patients. Risk-adjusted W scores derived from the Ps14 n model indicate that no neurosurgical unit fell outside the 3 SD limits on a funnel plot. We provide the first comprehensive report of the management of TBI in England and Wales, including data from all neurosurgical units. These data provide transparency and suggests equity of access to high-quality TBI management provided in England and Wales. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Discourses, Decisions, Designs: "Special" Education Policy-Making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Chong, Pei Wen; Graham, Linda J.

2017-01-01

This comparative analysis investigates the influence of neo-liberal and inclusive discourses in "special" education policy-making in New South Wales, Scotland, Finland and Malaysia. The centrality of competition, selectivity and accountability in the discourses used in New South Wales and Malaysia suggests a system preference for…

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Annual vaccine-preventable disease report for New South Wales, Australia, 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan Saul

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This report provides an epidemiological description of selected vaccine-preventable diseases in New South Wales (NSW, Australia, for 2014 to inform ongoing disease monitoring and control efforts. A trend of increasing pertussis notifications was observed, beginning midway through 2014 with the highest disease rates in the 5–9 year age group. Measles notifications increased to 67 cases in 2014 from 34 cases in 2013. Measles cases were associated with travel-related importations—predominantly from the Philippines—and secondary transmission increased compared to 2013 involving three main disease clusters. Notifications of invasive meningococcal disease continued to decline across the state with meningococcal B remaining the most common serogroup in NSW. Increasing rates of pertussis notifications from mid-2014 may indicate the beginning of an epidemic, ending the period of low transmission observed in 2013 and the first half of 2014. An increase in measles notifications in 2014, including secondary transmission, indicates the continued need for public health actions including robust follow-up and awareness campaigns.

Malleefowl conservation in New South Wales: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Priddel, D.; Wheeler, R.

1999-01-01

Together with land clearance, grazing by stock and inappropriate fire regimes, predation by the introduced European red fox Vulpes vulpes (Linnaeus, 1758) has decimated populations of malleefowl Leipoa ocellata Gould, 1840. The decline of the malleefowl has been most pronounced in New South Wales,

Demand for Emergency Services Trends in New South Wales Years 2010-2014 (DESTINY): Age and Clinical Factors Associated with Ambulance Transportation to Emergency Departments.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinh, Michael M; Muecke, Sandy; Berendsen Russell, Saartje; Chalkley, Dane; Bein, Kendall J; Muscatello, David; Nagaraj, Guruprasad; Paoloni, Richard; Ivers, Rebecca

2016-01-01

The study aimed to analyze ambulance transportations to Emergency Departments (EDs) in New South Wales (NSW) and to identify temporal changes in demographics, acuity, and clinical diagnoses. This was a retrospective analysis of a population based registry of ED presentations in New South Wales. The NSW Emergency Department data collection (EDCC) collects patient level data on presentations to designated EDs across NSW. Patients that presented to EDs by ambulance between January 2010 and December 2014 were included. Patients dead on arrival, transferred from another hospital, or planned ED presentations were excluded. A total of 10.8 million ED attendances were identified of which 2.6 million (23%) were transported to ED by ambulance. The crude rate of ambulance transportations to EDs across all ages increased by 3.0% per annum over the five years with the highest rate observed in those 85 years and over (620.5 presentations per 1,000 population). There was an increase in the proportion of category 1 and 2 (life-threatening or potentially life-threatening) cases from 18.1% to 24.0%. Demand for ambulance services appears to be driven by older patients presenting with higher acuity problems. Alternative models of acute care for elderly patients need to be planned and implemented to address these changes.

Variations in prison mental health services in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Forrester, Andrew; Exworthy, Tim; Olumoroti, Olumuyiwa; Sessay, Mohammed; Parrott, Janet; Spencer, Sarah-Jane; Whyte, Sean

2013-01-01

In responding to high levels of psychiatric morbidity amongst prisoners and recognising earlier poor quality prison mental health care, prison mental health in-reach teams have been established in England and Wales over the last decade. They are mostly provided by the National Health Service (NHS), which provides the majority of UK healthcare services. Over the same period, the prison population has grown to record levels, such that prisons in England and Wales now contain almost 90,000 of the world's overall prison population of over 10 million people (roughly the size of Paris or Istanbul). This study provides an overview of mental health in-reach services in prisons in England and Wales, including variations between them, through a telephone survey of senior staff in all prisons and young offender institutions in England and Wales. 73% of prisons took part; of them 13% had no in-reach team at all (usually low security establishments) and the majority of services were run by NHS teams, usually according to a generic community mental health team (CMHT) model rather than other specialist models. Team size was unrelated to prison size. Each nurse covered around 500 prisoners, each doctor over 3700. Many provided few or no healthcare cells and 24-h psychiatric cover (including on-call cover) was uncommon. Despite developments in recent years, mental health in-reach services still fall short of community equivalence and there is wide variation in service arrangements that cannot be explained by prison size or function. The aim of community equivalence has not yet been reached in prison healthcare and a more sophisticated measure of service improvement and standardisation would now be useful to drive and monitor future development. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Options for the management of Chernobyl-restricted areas in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nisbet, A.; Woodman, R.

1999-01-01

Areas in England and Wales are still subject to restrictions on tile movement, sale and slaughter of sheep because concentrations of radiocaesium in sheep meat may exceed the 1000 Bq kg -1 limit imposed after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. Various monitoring programmes have been implemented to enable lamb production to be sustained in these restricted areas, although no alternative management strategies have been considered to date. Current management practices have been reviewed and costed. An assessment has also been undertaken to establish the practicability and cost effectiveness of five alternative management options. The practicability of each option, which encompasses technical feasibility, capacity, cost, impact and acceptability, was assessed through a series of case studies carried out on farms in the restricted area of north Wales, and through consultation with a range of organisations with interests in farming and/or the environment. Recommendations are made for the future management of the restricted areas in England and Wales. (author)

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

School Expenditure and School Performance: Evidence from New South Wales Schools Using a Dynamic Panel Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Pugh, G.; Mangan, J.; Blackburn, V.; Radicic, D.

2015-01-01

This article estimates the effects of school expenditure on school performance in government secondary schools in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2006-2010. It uses dynamic panel analysis to exploit time series data on individual schools that only recently has become available. We find a significant but small effect of expenditure on…

Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

2008-01-01

,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

Using exogenous variables in testing for monotonic trends in hydrologic time series

Science.gov (United States)

Alley, William M.

1988-01-01

One approach that has been used in performing a nonparametric test for monotonic trend in a hydrologic time series consists of a two-stage analysis. First, a regression equation is estimated for the variable being tested as a function of an exogenous variable. A nonparametric trend test such as the Kendall test is then performed on the residuals from the equation. By analogy to stagewise regression and through Monte Carlo experiments, it is demonstrated that this approach will tend to underestimate the magnitude of the trend and to result in some loss in power as a result of ignoring the interaction between the exogenous variable and time. An alternative approach, referred to as the adjusted variable Kendall test, is demonstrated to generally have increased statistical power and to provide more reliable estimates of the trend slope. In addition, the utility of including an exogenous variable in a trend test is examined under selected conditions.

Bondonic effects in group-IV honeycomb nanoribbons with Stone-Wales topological defects.

Science.gov (United States)

Putz, Mihai V; Ori, Ottorino

2014-04-03

This work advances the modeling of bondonic effects on graphenic and honeycomb structures, with an original two-fold generalization: (i) by employing the fourth order path integral bondonic formalism in considering the high order derivatives of the Wiener topological potential of those 1D systems; and (ii) by modeling a class of honeycomb defective structures starting from graphene, the carbon-based reference case, and then generalizing the treatment to Si (silicene), Ge (germanene), Sn (stannene) by using the fermionic two-degenerate statistical states function in terms of electronegativity. The honeycomb nanostructures present η-sized Stone-Wales topological defects, the isomeric dislocation dipoles originally called by authors Stone-Wales wave or SWw. For these defective nanoribbons the bondonic formalism foresees a specific phase-transition whose critical behavior shows typical bondonic fast critical time and bonding energies. The quantum transition of the ideal-to-defect structural transformations is fully described by computing the caloric capacities for nanostructures triggered by η-sized topological isomerisations. Present model may be easily applied to hetero-combinations of Group-IV elements like C-Si, C-Ge, C-Sn, Si-Ge, Si-Sn, Ge-Sn.

Bondonic Effects in Group-IV Honeycomb Nanoribbons with Stone-Wales Topological Defects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihai V. Putz

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This work advances the modeling of bondonic effects on graphenic and honeycomb structures, with an original two-fold generalization: (i by employing the fourth order path integral bondonic formalism in considering the high order derivatives of the Wiener topological potential of those 1D systems; and (ii by modeling a class of honeycomb defective structures starting from graphene, the carbon-based reference case, and then generalizing the treatment to Si (silicene, Ge (germanene, Sn (stannene by using the fermionic two-degenerate statistical states function in terms of electronegativity. The honeycomb nanostructures present η-sized Stone-Wales topological defects, the isomeric dislocation dipoles originally called by authors Stone-Wales wave or SWw. For these defective nanoribbons the bondonic formalism foresees a specific phase-transition whose critical behavior shows typical bondonic fast critical time and bonding energies. The quantum transition of the ideal-to-defect structural transformations is fully described by computing the caloric capacities for nanostructures triggered by η-sized topological isomerisations. Present model may be easily applied to hetero-combinations of Group-IV elements like C-Si, C-Ge, C-Sn, Si-Ge, Si-Sn, Ge-Sn.

Experiences of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Policing in England and Wales: Surveying Police and the Autism Community

Science.gov (United States)

Crane, Laura; Maras, Katie L.; Hawken, Tamsyn; Mulcahy, Sue; Memon, Amina

2016-01-01

An online survey gathered the experiences and views of 394 police officers (from England and Wales) regarding autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Just 42% of officers were satisfied with how they had worked with individuals with ASD and reasons for this varied. Although officers acknowledged the need for adjustments, organisational/time constraints…

Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

2014-10-01

Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

Understanding the driving forces behind the losses of soil carbon across England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Bellamy, Patricia

2010-05-01

More than twice as much carbon is held in soils as in vegetation or the atmosphere, and changes in soil carbon content can have a large effect on the global carbon budget. The possibility that climate change is being reinforced by increased carbon dioxide emissions from soils owing to rising temperature is the subject of a continuing debate. But evidence for the suggested feedback mechanism has to date come solely from small-scale laboratory and field experiments and modelling studies. Here we use data from the National Soil Inventory of England and Wales obtained between 1978 and 2003 to show that carbon was lost from soils across England and Wales over the survey period at a mean rate of 0.6% yr-1 (relative to the existing soil carbon content). We find that the relative rate of carbon loss increased with soil carbon content and was more than 2% yr-1 in soils with carbon contents greater than 100 g kg-1. The relationship between rate of carbon loss and carbon content is irrespective of land use, suggesting a link to climate change. Our findings indicate that losses of soil carbon in England and Wales—and by inference in other temperate regions—are likely to have been offsetting absorption of carbon by terrestrial sinks. To investigate the possible driving forces of the measured losses of soil carbon we applied a simple model of soil carbon turnover to evaluate alternative explanations for the observed trends. We find that neither changes in decomposition resulting from the effects of climate change on soil temperature and moisture, nor changes in carbon input from vegetation, could account on their own for the overall trends. Of other explanations, results indicate that past changes in land use and management were probably dominant. The climate change signal, such as it is, is masked by these other changes. A more sophisticated model of carbon change (DAYCENT) has now been applied across the whole range of soils in England and Wales. This model has been

Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation.

Science.gov (United States)

Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

2014-03-01

The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940-1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

A national-scale assessment of micro-organic contaminants in groundwater of England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Manamsa, Katya; Crane, Emily; Stuart, Marianne; Talbot, John; Lapworth, Dan; Hart, Alwyn

2016-10-15

A large variety of micro-organic (MO) compounds is used in huge quantities for a range of purposes (e.g. manufacturing, food production, healthcare) and is now being frequently detected in the aquatic environment. Interest in the occurrence of MO contaminants in the terrestrial and aquatic environments continues to grow, as well as in their environmental fate and potential toxicity. However, the contamination of groundwater resources by MOs has a limited evidence base compared to other freshwater resources. Of particular concern are newly 'emerging contaminants' such as pharmaceuticals and lifestyle compounds, particularly those with potential endocrine disrupting properties. While groundwater often has a high degree of protection from pollution due to physical, chemical and biological attenuation processes in the subsurface compared to surface aquatic environments, trace concentrations of a large range of compounds are still detected in groundwater and in some cases may persist for decades due to the long residence times of groundwater systems. This study provides the first national-scale assessment of micro-organic compounds in groundwater in England and Wales. A large set of monitoring data was analysed to determine the relative occurrence and detected concentrations of different groups of compounds and to determine relationships with land-use, aquifer type and groundwater vulnerability. MOs detected including emerging compounds such as caffeine, DEET, bisphenol A, anti-microbial agents and pharmaceuticals as well as a range of legacy contaminants including chlorinated solvents and THMs, petroleum hydrocarbons, pesticides and other industrial compounds. There are clear differences in MOs between land-use types, particularly for urban-industrial and natural land-use. Temporal trends of MO occurrence are assessed but establishing long-term trends is not yet possible. Copyright © 2016 British Geological Survey, NERC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoon Hong Choi

Full Text Available England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7 with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13, partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether.A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13.Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000-62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether.Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch.

Potential for cadaveric organ retrieval in New South Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Hibberd, A D; Pearson, I Y; McCosker, C J; Chapman, J R; Macdonald, G J; Thompson, J F; O'Connell, D L; Mohacsi, P J; McLoughlin, M P; Spratt, P M

1992-05-23

To measure the potential for cadaver organ retrieval in New South Wales and to determine the reasons for potential donors failing to become actual donors. Prospective audit of all patients dying in five hospitals in New South Wales between 1 December 1989 and 30 November 1990; quality assurance of the data by independent medical specialist and if disagreement by study committee. 2879 patients (100% of all deaths) yielding 364 patients with coma and 181 potential donors. Realistic medically suitable potential donor rate, missed potential donor rate, rate of potential donors with permission refused, donor rate, reasons for realistic medically suitable potential donors failing to become actual donors. 2879 deaths yielded 73 medically suitable potential donors, resulting in 19 actual donors, 30 missed potential donors, 19 potential donors with permission refused, and five in whom adequate resuscitation failed. The most common reason for a potential donor failing to become an actual donor was a decision by the senior medical practitioner to withdraw or not to institute ventilatory or haemodynamic support (26/73). The second major obstacle was refusal of permission by the next of kin (17/73). Assuming that the potential donor rate was that implied by the observed donor rate (13/million population/year) the projected missed potential donor rate was 9/million population/year (95% confidence interval 4 to 15) and the projected rate of potential donors with permission refused was 13/million population/year (95% confidence interval 5 to 22). Assuming that the rate of potential donors in the study hospitals was the same as in the other New South Wales hospitals, the projected donor rate for New South Wales was 18/million population/year (10 to 26); the projected missed potential donor rate was 15/million population/year (7 to 23); and the projected rate of potential donors with permission refused was 18/million population/year (10 to 27). The donor rate could be increased 70

Time trends in the natural dizygotic twinning rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Derom, Catherine; Gielen, Marij; Peeters, Hilde; Frijns, Jean-Pierre; Zeegers, Maurice P A

2011-08-01

The natural dizygotic (DZ) twinning rate has been proposed as a reliable and useful measure of human fecundity, if adjusted for maternal age at twin birth. The aim of this study was to analyze age-adjusted trends in natural DZ twinning rates over the past 40 years using data from the 'East Flanders Prospective Twin Survey (EFPTS)'. This study involved 4835 naturally conceived twin pregnancies between 1969 and 2009 from the population-based Belgian 'EFPTS'. Age-adjusted trends in the incidence of natural DZ twin pregnancies were calculated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution. Both the natural DZ twinning rates and maternal age at twin birth increased in a linear fashion from 1969 to 2009. When age-adjusted, we found that the trend in the natural DZ twinning rate was stable during the whole time period. According to our population-based data and after age-adjustment, a stable natural DZ twinning rate could be observed over the last four decades. Under the assumption that the spontaneous DZ twinning rate is a sensor of fecundity, this indicates a stable 'high' fecundity for this population.

Zigzag graphene nanoribbon edge reconstruction with Stone-Wales defects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodrigues, J. N. B.; Gonçalves, P. A. D; Rodrigues, N. F. G.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we study zigzag graphene nanoribbons with edges reconstructed with Stone-Wales defects, by means of an empirical (first-neighbor) tight-binding method, with parameters determined by ab initio calculations of very narrow ribbons. We explore the characteristics of the electronic band...

Extreme Drought-induced Trend Changes in MODIS EVI Time Series in Yunnan, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Kaicheng; Zhou, Tao; Zhao, Xiang

2014-01-01

Extreme climatic events triggered by global climate change are expected to increase significantly hence research into vegetation response is crucial to evaluate environmental risk. Yunnan province, locating in southwest China, experienced an extreme drought event (from autumn of 2009 to spring of 2010), with the lowest percentage rainfall anomaly and the longest non-rain days in the past 50 years. This study aimed to explore the characteristics and differences in the response to drought of four land cover types in Yunnan province, including forest, grassland, shrub, and cropland during the period 2001-2011. We used remote sensing data, MODIS-derived EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) to study the vegetation responses to this extreme drought event. The EVI time series were decomposed into trend, seasonal and remainder components using BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) which accounts for seasonality and enables the detection of trend changes within the time series. The preliminary results showed that: (1) BFAST proved to be capable of detecting drought-induced trend changes in EVI time series. (2) Changes in the trend component over time consisted of both gradual and abrupt changes. (3) Different spatial patterns were found for abrupt and gradual changes. (4) Cropland exhibited an abrupt change, due to its sensitivity to severe drought, while the forest seemed least affected by the extreme drought

Time trends in physical activity in leisure time in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Christina Bjørk; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Helge, Jørn Wulff

2010-01-01

AIMS: To examine time trends in leisure-time physical activity in the Danish population from 1987 to 2005. METHODS: Analyses were based on four national representative population surveys of 4752 respondents in 1987, 4667 in 1994, 16,688 in 2000, and 14,566 in 2005. Associations between leisure......-time physical activity (dichotomised into high versus low) and temporal changes according to year of birth, age, and calendar-year were estimated in an age-period-cohort logistic regression model. Time trends in socioeconomic differences in physical activity were analysed by testing interaction terms. RESULTS......: The odds ratio (OR) of being highly physically active in leisure time in 2005 compared to 1987 was 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) among men and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2) among women. The age- and calendar-year-adjusted probability of being highly physically active increased with year of birth. The OR of being highly...

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

Science.gov (United States)

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-05-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

Aetiology of hyperthyroidism in Canada and Wales.

OpenAIRE

Williams, I; Ankrett, V O; Lazarus, J H; Volpe, R

1983-01-01

A retrospective, comparative review of 100 consecutive new outpatients presenting with hyperthyroidism in Cardiff, South Wales, and in Toronto, Canada, was performed. The aim was to quantify the causes of hyperthyroidism with particular emphasis on the prevalence of viral thyroiditis and "silent" thyroiditis. The proportional morbidity of Graves' disease (approximately 70%) was similar in the two groups. Toxic multinodular goitre and toxic adenoma (Plummers' disease) occurred significantly mo...

Passive acoustic monitoring of bottlenose dolphin and harbour porpoise, in Cardigan Bay, Wales, with implications for habitat use and partitioning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Simon, Malene Juul; Nuuttila, Hanna; Reyes-Zamudio, Mercedes M

2010-01-01

Knowledge about harbour porpoise and bottlenose dolphin occurrence in Cardigan Bay Special Area of Conservation (SAC), Wales, is limited to daylight hours during summer, when conditions are suitable for traditional visual surveys. T-PODs are autonomous instruments programmed to log time-cues of s...

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

Science.gov (United States)

Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

2017-04-01

Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

Teacher Demand: Crisis What Crisis?

Science.gov (United States)

See, Beng Huat; Gorard, Stephen; White, Patrick

2004-01-01

This paper is based on two studies of teacher recruitment and retention commissioned by the General Teaching Council of Wales and the ESRC. Using official statistics from a variety of secondary sources, it shows trends over time in teacher numbers in England and Wales, and examines teacher vacancies, pupil-teacher ratios and teacher wastage. It…

Risk factors for ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection in Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Meirion R; Northey, Gemma; Sarvotham, Tinnu S; Hopkins, A Lynne; Rigby, Christine J; Thomas, Daniel Rh

2009-08-01

To identify risk factors for ciprofloxacin resistance in both travel-related and domestically acquired Campylobacter infection. Case-comparison study of patients with ciprofloxacin-resistant and ciprofloxacin-susceptible Campylobacter infection conducted in Wales during 2003 and 2004. Foreign travel was the major risk factor for ciprofloxacin-resistant infection [adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 24.0, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 12.6-45.9]. Among travellers, case patients were five times more likely to drink still bottled water (adjOR 4.7, 95% CI 1.0-21.7), whilst among non-travellers, case patients were three times more likely to drink sparkling bottled water (adjOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5-7.4). There was no increased risk associated with eating poultry or prior quinolone use. Foreign travel remains the most important risk factor for ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection. The possible association of both domestic- and travel-related ciprofloxacin-resistant Campylobacter infection with bottled water needs to be further explored.

Gender, Time and Inequality: Trends in Women's and Men's Paid Work, Unpaid Work and Free Time

Science.gov (United States)

Sayer, Liana C.

2005-01-01

This analysis uses nationally representative time diary data from 1965, 1975 and 1998 to examine trends and gender differences in time use. Women continue to do more household labor than men; however, men have substantially increased time in core household activities such as cooking, cleaning and daily child care. Nonetheless, a 30-minute-per-day…

Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994-2006: findings from Europe and North America

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Molcho, Michal; Craig, Wendy; Due, Pernille

2009-01-01

patterns show consistent decreases in bullying in Western European countries and in most Eastern European countries. An increase or no change in prevalence was evident in almost all English speaking countries participating in the study (England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Canada, but not in the USA...

Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E

2018-02-01

The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

Time trends of US hospitalization for esophageal disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnenberg, Amnon

2014-09-01

The occurrence of reflux disease seems to be rising in the United States. The aim of the present study was to follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and other esophageal disease during the past 4 decades. US hospital utilization data were available for individual years from 1970 to 2010 through the National Hospital Discharge Survey. Esophageal diagnoses were stratified by their ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases codes. Annual hospitalizations were expressed as rates per 100,000 living US population. GERD was by far the most common esophageal disorder resulting in hospitalization. However, in only 5% of instances did GERD-related diagnoses constitute the primary cause of hospitalization. Between 1970 and 2010 the rates of GERD-related hospitalizations increased in an exponential manner almost 10-fold. This rise affected both sex and all age groups alike. A 3-fold rise was noted in hospitalizations for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Other esophageal diagnoses, such as achalasia, dyskinesia, or stricture were characterized by falling or stable trends. US hospitalization data show a continued exponential rise in the occurrence of GERD without any signs of leveling off. These trends are likely to represent ongoing changes in the underlying incidence and prevalence of the disease.

Leading causes of certification for blindness and partial sight in England & Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wormald Richard

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Prevention of visual impairment is an international priority agreed at the World Health Assembly of 2002- yet many countries lack contemporary data about incidence and causes from which priorities for prevention, treatment and management can be identified. Methods Registration as blind or partially-sighted in England and Wales is voluntary and is initiated by certification by a consultant ophthalmologist. From all certificates completed during the year April 1999 to March 2000, the main cause of visual loss was ascertained where possible and here we present information on the leading causes observed and comment on changes in the three leading causes since the last analysis conducted for 1990–1991 data. Results 13788 people were certified as blind, 19107 were certified as partially sighted. The majority of certifications were in the older age groups. The most commonly recorded main cause of certifications for both blindness (57.2 % and partial sight (56 % was degeneration of the macula and posterior pole which largely comprises age-related macular degeneration. Glaucoma and diabetic retinopathy were the next most commonly recorded main causes. Overall, the age specific incidence of all three leading causes has increased since 1990–1991 – with changes in diabetic retinopathy being the most marked – particularly in the over 65's where figures have more than doubled. Conclusion The numbers of individuals per 100,000 population being certified blind or partially sighted due to the three leading causes – AMD, diabetic retinopathy and glaucoma have increased since 1990. This may to some extent be explained by improved ascertainment. The process of registration for severe visual impairment in England and Wales is currently undergoing review. Efforts must be made to ensure that routine collection of data on causes of severe visual impairment is continued, particularly in this age of improved technology, to allow such trends

Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method

OpenAIRE

Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.

2014-01-01

In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods ...

Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

2002-12-01

Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

Detecting cognizable trends of gene expression in a time series ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

This poses difficulties in conducting formal statistical tests of significance of ... The proposed algorithm captured known 'time-trends' in the simulated data with a high probability ... to draw valid inferences even when the sample size is small.

Teaching Children the Geography of England and Wales: An Analysis of Selected Georgian and Victorian Textbooks and Educational Pastimes

Science.gov (United States)

Dove, Jane

2017-01-01

Children in Georgian and Victorian times were expected to be familiar with the geography of England and Wales. This study analyses some of the resources then available which taught children this information. John Aikin's "England Delineated" is evaluated as a geographical text and then compared with less formal games and puzzles, then on…

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker...... are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect......Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using...

Time trends in axilla management among early breast cancer patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gondos, Adam; Jansen, Lina; Heil, Joerg

2016-01-01

Background We examined time trends in axilla management among patients with early breast cancer in European clinical settings. Material and methods EUROCANPlatform partners, including population-based and cancer center-specific registries, provided routinely available clinical cancer registry data...... for a comparative study of axillary management trends among patients with first non-metastatic breast cancer who were not selected for neoadjuvant therapy during the last decade. We used an additional short questionnaire to compare clinical care patterns in 2014. Results Patients treated in cancer centers were...... younger than population-based registry populations. Tumor size and lymph node status distributions varied little between settings or over time. In 2003, sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) use varied between 26% and 81% for pT1 tumors, and between 2% and 68% for pT2 tumors. By 2010, SLNB use increased to 79...

Deemed consent: Assessing the new opt-out approach to organ procurement in Wales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Albertsen, Andreas

2018-01-01

In December 2015, Wales became the first country in the UK to move away from an opt-in system in organ procurement. The new legislation introduces the concept of deemed consent whereby a person who neither opt in nor opt out is deemed to have consented to donation. The data released by the National...... Health Service (NHS) in July 2017 provide an excellent opportunity to assess this legislation in light of concerns that it would decrease procurement rates for living and deceased donation, as well as sparking an increase in family refusals. None of these concerns have come to pass, with Wales...

Radionuclides around nuclear sites in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, A.L.; Horrill, A.D.; Singleton, D.L.; Leonard, D.R.P.

1996-01-01

Environmental releases of low levels of radioactivity can occur as a consequence of normal operations at nuclear facilities. In England and Wales, the impact of gaseous discharges on the terrestrial environment is monitored routinely by the site operators as well as by Food Science Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The terrestrial surveillance programme carried out by MAFF Food Science concentrates on agricultural produce to provide assessments of doses to members of the population derived from the consumption of terrestrial foodstuffs. We present here the results of a survey, undertaken in 1993 to supplement the monitoring data of MAFF, of artificial radioactive contamination around eighteen nuclear establishments in England and Wales. Grass and soil samples were used as indicators of environmental contamination at these sites for the radionuclides 137 Cs, 90 Sr, 239+240 Pu and 241 Am. When compared to estimated background radionuclide concentrations close to each site, these data reveal that four of the 18 sites have contributed measurable increases to both the 137 Cs and 239+240 Pu inventory within 500 m outside the boundary fence. Two additional sites showed slight increases above the expected background soil levels of 239+240 Pu

Comparison of mortality following hospitalisation for isolated head injury in England and Wales, and Victoria, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda J Gabbe

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI remains a leading cause of death and disability. The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE guidelines recommend transfer of severe TBI cases to neurosurgical centres, irrespective of the need for neurosurgery. This observational study investigated the risk-adjusted mortality of isolated TBI admissions in England/Wales, and Victoria, Australia, and the impact of neurosurgical centre management on outcomes. METHODS: Isolated TBI admissions (>15 years, July 2005-June 2006 were extracted from the hospital discharge datasets for both jurisdictions. Severe isolated TBI (AIS severity >3 admissions were provided by the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN and Victorian State Trauma Registry (VSTR for England/Wales, and Victoria, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare risk-adjusted mortality between jurisdictions. FINDINGS: Mortality was 12% (749/6256 in England/Wales and 9% (91/1048 in Victoria for isolated TBI admissions. Adjusted odds of death in England/Wales were higher compared to Victoria overall (OR 2.0, 95% CI: 1.6, 2.5, and for cases <65 years (OR 2.36, 95% CI: 1.51, 3.69. For severe TBI, mortality was 23% (133/575 for TARN and 20% (68/346 for VSTR, with 72% of TARN and 86% of VSTR cases managed at a neurosurgical centre. The adjusted mortality odds for severe TBI cases in TARN were higher compared to the VSTR (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 0.96, 2.19, but particularly for cases <65 years (OR 2.04, 95% CI: 1.07, 3.90. Neurosurgical centre management modified the effect overall (OR 1.12, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.74 and for cases <65 years (OR 1.53, 95% CI: 0.77, 3.03. CONCLUSION: The risk-adjusted odds of mortality for all isolated TBI admissions, and severe TBI cases, were higher in England/Wales when compared to Victoria. The lower percentage of cases managed at neurosurgical centres in England and Wales was an explanatory factor, supporting the changes made to the NICE

A Comparison of Substance Abuse and Mental Illness in Male Offenders in Jamaica and England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CA Sewell

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Background: The present study sought to determine the prevalence of substance abuse, mental illness, sociodemographics and clinical characteristics of mentally ill offenders. These data were compared to data from the prison population in the United Kingdom. Method: This is a cross-sectional study of male, mentally ill offenders in two prisons in Jamaica, and four prisons in England and Wales. For the Jamaican sample, a psychopathology and forensic survey instrument was developed by the research personnel to extract specific information from the diagnostic interview. Data extraction was done over a one-year period. For the England and Wales sample, the participants were interviewed and assessed using various structured instruments. Results: The results indicate that approximately 18% of persons within the Jamaican prison population under study had a mental illness. Of this number, 57% of these persons had been previously diagnosed with a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition, text revision (DSM IV-TR Axis 1 disorder. Substance abuse was the most frequently diagnosed DSM-IV Axis I disorder within both populations. The prevalence of mental illness found in the Jamaican prison population was approximately four times greater than the rate in the comparison population of England and Wales. Conclusions: There was an over-representation of mentally ill offenders in the Jamaican prison population. This is most likely linked to the lack of appropriate diversion programmes and a forensic mental hospital in Jamaica.

Variation in the annual unsatisfactory rates of selected pathogens and indicators in ready-to-eat food sampled from the point of sale or service in Wales, United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Meldrum, R J; Garside, J; Mannion, P; Charles, D; Ellis, P

2012-12-01

The Welsh Food Microbiological Forum "shopping basket" survey is a long running, structured surveillance program examining ready-to-eat food randomly sampled from the point of sale or service in Wales, United Kingdom. The annual unsatisfactory rates for selected indicators and pathogens for 1998 through 2008 were examined. All the annual unsatisfactory rates for the selected pathogens were <0.5%, and no pattern with the annual rate was observed. There was also no discernible trend observed for the annual rates of Listeria spp. (not moncytogenes), with all rates <0.5%. However, there was a trend observed for Esherichia coli, with a decrease in rate between 1998 and 2003, rapid in the first few years, and then a gradual increase in rate up to 2008. It was concluded that there was no discernible pattern to the annual unsatisfactory rates for Listeria spp. (not monocytogenes), L. monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Bacillus cereus, but that a definite trend had been observed for E. coli.

The western arctic linkage experiment (WALE): overview and synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

A.D. McGuire; J. Walsh; J.S. Kimball; J.S. Clein; S.E. Euskirdhen; S. Drobot; U.C. Herzfeld; J. Maslanik; R.B. Lammers; M.A. Rawlins; C.J. Vorosmarty; T.S. Rupp; W. Wu; M. Calef

2008-01-01

The primary goal of the Western Arctic Linkage Experiment (WALE) was to better understand uncertainties of simulated hydrologic and ecosystem dynamics of the western Arctic in the context of 1) uncertainties in the data available to drive the models and 2) different approaches to simulating regional hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Analyses of datasets on climate...

The Current Provision for Further and Higher Education in Wales. Coombe Lodge Working Paper. Information Bank Number 1627.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, D. T.

Provision for postsecondary higher education in Wales, the nature of the Welsh system, and future concerns are discussed. The roles of the Welsh Office and the Welsh Joint Education Committee contrast greatly with central organizations in England. There is one university in Wales, comprising seven constituent colleges. Additional institutions in…

Socio-spatial factors associated with ethnic inequalities in districts of England and Wales, 2001–11

OpenAIRE

Lymperopoulou, Kitty; Finney, Nissa

2016-01-01

This paper explores the changing geography of ethnic inequality in England and Wales drawing on data from the 2001 and 2011 censuses. Specifically, we use the 2011 Office for National Statistics (ONS) area classification to examine how ethnic inequalities within local areas with different demographic and socio-economic characteristics have changed over time. Local ethnic inequalities are examined through a set of indicators which capture differences in housing, health, employment and educatio...

Who should do the dishes now? exploring gender and housework in contemporary urban South Wales

OpenAIRE

Mannay, Dawn

2014-01-01

This paper revisits Jane Pilcher’s (1994) seminal chapter from Our Sisters’ Land: The Changing Identities of Women in Wales - ‘Who should do the dishes? Three generations of Welsh women talking about men and housework’. Two decades on from the original study, the paper explores this question in contemporary south Wales by drawing upon data generated in a study of mothers and daughters residing in a Welsh, marginalised, urban housing area. Mothers of daughters in the two eldest groups tended t...

New South Wales' new electricity transmission authority

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fahey, J.

1995-01-01

The latest milestone in electricity reform in NSW was the formation of a new statutory authority, the Electricity Transmission Authority (ETA), to take over and operate the transmission assets of Pacific Power, formerly the New South Wales Electricity Commission. The ETA will be operational from 1 February 1995, in time for the proposed commencement of a national electricity market on 1 July 1995. The forces of competition are being used to improve the efficiency of the industry, to empower consumers with greater choice and to open up new opportunities for private-sector participation in the industry. Potentially commercial activities such as coal mines have been separated from the operational arm of Pacific Power so that they have to compete with the private sector in supplying power stations. Significant reductions have been made in the price of electricity to reduce existing cross-subsidizations so that commercial and industrial customers gain the biggest benefits. The new ETA will pay dividends to the NSW government, as private companies pay dividends to their shareholders, and it will be subject to the federal tax-equivalent regime. 2 photos

An Operational In Situ Soil Moisture & Soil Temperature Monitoring Network for West Wales, UK: The WSMN Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Petropoulos, George P; McCalmont, Jon P

2017-06-23

This paper describes a soil moisture dataset that has been collecting ground measurements of soil moisture, soil temperature and related parameters for west Wales, United Kingdom. Already acquired in situ data have been archived to the autonomous Wales Soil Moisture Network (WSMN) since its foundation in July 2011. The sites from which measurements are being collected represent a range of conditions typical of the Welsh environment, with climate ranging from oceanic to temperate and a range of the most typical land use/cover types found in Wales. At present, WSMN consists of a total of nine monitoring sites across the area with a concentration of sites in three sub-areas around the region of Aberystwyth located in Mid-Wales. The dataset of composed of 0-5 (or 0-10) cm soil moisture, soil temperature, precipitation, and other ancillary data. WSMN data are provided openly to the public via the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) platform. At present, WSMN is also rapidly expanding thanks to funding obtained recently which allows more monitoring sites to be added to the network to the wider community interested in using its data.

Co-operation and conflict under hard and soft contracting regimes: case studies from England and Wales

OpenAIRE

Hughes, David; Allen, Pauline; Doheny, Shane; Petsoulas, Christina; Vincent-Jones, Peter

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND: This paper examines NHS secondary care contracting in England and Wales in a period which saw increasing policy divergence between the two systems. At face value, England was making greater use of market levers and utilising harder-edged service contracts incorporating financial penalties and incentives, while Wales was retreating from the 1990 s internal market and emphasising cooperation and flexibility in the contracting process. But there were also cross-border spill-overs inv...

The silviculture, nutrition and economics of short rotation willow coppice in the uplands of mid-Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heaton, R J; Randerson, P F; Slater, F M

2000-07-01

The potential of short rotation coppice as a biomass crop on land over 250m (the uplands) of mid Wales was studied. The results found in this study indicate that growing short rotation coppice willow in the uplands is a viable proposition with regard to establishment success and yields. In the event of a secure wood chip market in Wales, returns to the grower would be comparable to those from sheep production. (author)

Diagnoses of Autism Spectrum Disorders in Germany: Time Trends in Administrative Prevalence and Diagnostic Stability

Science.gov (United States)

Bachmann, Christian J.; Gerste, Bettina; Hoffmann, Falk

2018-01-01

For Germany, no data on trends in autism spectrum disorder diagnoses are available. The primary aim of this study was to establish the time trends in the administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses. The second aim was to assess the stability of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses over time. We analysed administrative outpatient…

Building regulations in energy efficiency: Compliance in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pan Wei; Garmston, Helen

2012-01-01

There is an international pragmatic shift towards the use of building energy regulations, standards and codes to reduce building energy consumption. The UK Government revised Building Regulations in 2002, 2006 and 2010, towards more stringent energy efficiency standards and ultimately the target of ‘zero carbon’ new homes from 2016. This paper aims to: reveal levels of compliance with energy Building Regulations of new-build dwellings in England and Wales; explore underlying issues; and identify possible solutions. In total 376 new-build dwellings were investigated. The compliance revealed was poor, at a level of 35%; accompanied by 43% ‘grey compliance’ and 21% ‘grey non-compliance’ (due to insufficient evidence of achieving required carbon emissions reductions). It is a serious concern when building control approves so many dwellings when insufficient evidence of compliance has been received. Underlying issues were centred on: incorrect compilation and/or insufficient submission of carbon emissions calculations by builders/developers; inappropriate timings of such submissions; and a paucity of proper checks by building control. Exploring these issues reveals a complex system of factors influencing energy regulations compliance, which involves a wide range of stakeholders. The findings should inform the formulation and implementation of energy efficiency building regulations and policy in the future. - Highlights: ► The compliance with energy Building Regulations (England and Wales) was poor. ► The problematic implementation of energy Building Regulations is a serious concern. ► Identified issues suggest a lack of knowledge of builders and building control. ► There is a complex system of factors influencing energy regulations compliance. ► A systems approach is needed to improve compliance, while training is crucial.

Time trends in heavy drinking among middle-aged and older adults in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjørk, Christina; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Vinther-Larsen, Mathilde

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Studies have indicated an increasing proportion of heavy drinking among middle-aged and older Danes. Trends in consumption are often extremely sensitive to influence from various components of the time trends but only few have explored the age, period and cohort-related influences...... that the proportion of heavy drinking women increases in younger birth cohorts. This trend is not observed for men as their drinking pattern mainly increase slightly by calendar year. CONCLUSIONS: Our Danish observations for older aged individuals correspond to the social and cultural changes in the 1960s and 1970s...

The Needs of Child Victims of Trafficking: Practitioner Perspective on Supporting Children Through Partnership in Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernie Bowen-Thomson

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article provides a first-person account of the Safer Wales program and the importance of capitalizing on the United Nations partnership principle which is one of the four major pillars considered essential in effectively combating human trafficking. The discussion includes reference to how various legislation has helped to strengthen the partnerships within Wales but that there remain several challenges. In addition to reviewing how Safer Wales builds and sustains partnerships, a case study is used to illustrate the relative effectiveness of such an approach. The article concludes with a number of practical observations to show the relative importance of partnerships to effectively combat the exploitation and/or trafficking of children. Este artículo ofrece un relato en primera persona del programa Safer Wales y la importancia de capitalizar el principio de asociación de las Naciones Unidas. Dicho principio es uno de los cuatro pilares considerados esenciales en la lucha eficaz contra el tráfico de personas. El desarrollo del tema incluye referencias a la forma en que la legislación ha ayudado a fortalecer las asociaciones que se han establecido en Gales, pero también hace notar que quedan algunos desafíos pendientes. Además de valorar la forma en que Safer Wales construye y ayuda a mantener asociaciones, se utiliza un estudio de caso para ilustrar la eficacia relativa de ese abordaje. El artículo termina con observaciones de tipo práctico que muestran la importancia de las asociaciones para combatir con eficacia la explotación y el tráfico de niños. DOWNLOAD THIS PAPER FROM SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3086497

A survey of local health promotion initiatives for older people in Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Williams Nefyn H

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background As the demographic profile of the UK changes, policy makers and practitioners have to respond to health challenges presented by a progressively ageing population. The health promotion plan for older people, aged over 50 years, in Wales included eight key areas: physical activity, healthy eating, home safety and warmth, emotional health, health protection, smoking, alcohol and sexual health. The aim of this study was to describe the extent, content and regional variation of existing health promotion initiatives for older people in Wales, provided by statutory, voluntary and private sector agencies. Method A questionnaire was sent to senior health promotion specialists employed in the 22 local authority areas in Wales to ascertain details of all projects promoting health and wellbeing in the eight key areas where the priority population was aged over 50, or the majority of users were older people. Additional information was sought from project leads and websites. Results Eighteen questionnaires were returned; not all were fully completed. Four areas did not return a questionnaire. Additional information was obtained from internet searches but this mainly concerned national initiatives rather than local projects. In all, 120 projects were included, 11 were throughout Wales. Best provision was for physical activity, with 3 national and 42 local initiatives, but local provision was patchy. Healthy eating, and home safety and warmth had far fewer initiatives, as did health protection, which comprised two national immunisation campaigns. Smoking and alcohol misuse were poorly provided for, and there was no provision for older people's sexual health. Evaluation arrangements were poorly described. Half of those who responded identified unmet training needs. Conclusion The reasons for patchy provision of services were not clear. Increased efforts to improve the coverage of interventions known to be effective should be made. Rigorous

United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

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Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

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Powles John W

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD BMI of 21 (1 Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-06-30

Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Updated birth weight centiles for England and Wales.

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Norris, Tom; Seaton, Sarah E; Manktelow, Brad N; Baker, Philip N; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Field, David; Draper, Elizabeth S; Smith, Lucy K

2017-12-07

Construct updated birth weight-for-gestational age centile charts for use in the UK and compare these to the currently used UK-WHO charts. Secondary analysis of national birth data. Centiles were constructed using 1 269 403 singleton births occurring in England and Wales in 2013-2014 as part of the MBRRACE-UK national perinatal surveillance programme. These were then validated using 642 737 singleton births occurring in England and Wales in 2015. Sex-specific birth weight-for-gestational age centiles. Centiles were created using the lambda-mu-sigma method via the GAMLSS package in R. This method transforms the skewed birth weight distribution to approximate a normal distribution, allowing any birth weight centile to be produced. The new centiles performed well in the validation sample, with the observed and expected proportion of births below a given centile in agreement. Overall, driven by the predominance of term births, the UK-WHO charts classify a smaller proportion of infants as below a given centile. For example, the UK-WHO estimates classified only 1.32% (8035/606 430) of term infants born in 2015 as below the second centile, compared with 1.97% (11 975/606 430) using the new MBRRACE-UK centiles. At the earliest gestational ages, however, the opposite is observed, with the UK-WHO classifying a larger proportion of infants as below a given centile, particularly at the lower end of the birthweight distribution. We have constructed and validated updated birth weight-for-gestational age centiles using a contemporary sample of births occurring in England and Wales. The benefits of these updated centiles will be first to assist the national surveillance of perinatal mortality programme by improving the identification of the proportion of stillbirths and neonatal deaths affected by intrauterine growth restriction and, second, to aid clinicians by more accurately identifying babies who require increased monitoring in the period immediately following birth. �

Empirical mode decomposition and k-nearest embedding vectors for timely analyses of antibiotic resistance trends.

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Teodoro, Douglas; Lovis, Christian

2013-01-01

Antibiotic resistance is a major worldwide public health concern. In clinical settings, timely antibiotic resistance information is key for care providers as it allows appropriate targeted treatment or improved empirical treatment when the specific results of the patient are not yet available. To improve antibiotic resistance trend analysis algorithms by building a novel, fully data-driven forecasting method from the combination of trend extraction and machine learning models for enhanced biosurveillance systems. We investigate a robust model for extraction and forecasting of antibiotic resistance trends using a decade of microbiology data. Our method consists of breaking down the resistance time series into independent oscillatory components via the empirical mode decomposition technique. The resulting waveforms describing intrinsic resistance trends serve as the input for the forecasting algorithm. The algorithm applies the delay coordinate embedding theorem together with the k-nearest neighbor framework to project mappings from past events into the future dimension and estimate the resistance levels. The algorithms that decompose the resistance time series and filter out high frequency components showed statistically significant performance improvements in comparison with a benchmark random walk model. We present further qualitative use-cases of antibiotic resistance trend extraction, where empirical mode decomposition was applied to highlight the specificities of the resistance trends. The decomposition of the raw signal was found not only to yield valuable insight into the resistance evolution, but also to produce novel models of resistance forecasters with boosted prediction performance, which could be utilized as a complementary method in the analysis of antibiotic resistance trends.

Neutropenia and agranulocytosis in England and Wales: incidence and risk factors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Staa, T. P.; Boulton, F.; Cooper, C.; Hagenbeek, A.; Inskip, H.; Leufkens, H. G. M.

2003-01-01

The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence of idiosyncratic neutropenia and agranulocytosis in England and Wales and to evaluate their risk factors and outcomes. The study was conducted using data from the General Practice Research Database. All cases of idiosyncratic neutropenia or

Management of whiplash injuries presenting to accident and emergency departments in Wales

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Logan, A; Holt, M

2003-01-01

Methods: Questionnaires were sent to 76 full time accident and emergency staff across Wales inquiring into their management of soft tissue sprains/strains of the neck and soft collar use. Results: The overall response rate was 74% (SHO 70%, registrar 65%, consultant 100%). Half of consultants and more than half of the middle grade and junior staff reported soft collar use in this condition. As required wear was most commonly recommended and instructions for use ranged from one day only to until the patient was pain free. Conclusion: The study recommends treatment protocols for whiplash injuries prescribing regular analgesia, early home exercises with the help of an advice sheet, and physiotherapy if symptoms persist. PMID:12835348

Joint Coal Board. Thirty-eighth annual report 1984/1985. [New South Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1986-01-01

The thirty-eighth annual report of the Joint Coal Board is presented. Included are the major activities of the Board, general statistics of the New South Wales coal industry, an industry review and the Board's financial statements.

Hybrid model for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and salendar variation patterns

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Suhartono; Rahayu, S. P.; Prastyo, D. D.; Wijayanti, D. G. P.; Juliyanto

2017-09-01

Most of the monthly time series data in economics and business in Indonesia and other Moslem countries not only contain trend and seasonal, but also affected by two types of calendar variation effects, i.e. the effect of the number of working days or trading and holiday effects. The purpose of this research is to develop a hybrid model or a combination of several forecasting models to predict time series that contain trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. This hybrid model is a combination of classical models (namely time series regression and ARIMA model) and/or modern methods (artificial intelligence method, i.e. Artificial Neural Networks). A simulation study was used to show that the proposed procedure for building the hybrid model could work well for forecasting time series with trend, seasonal and calendar variation patterns. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid model is applied for forecasting real data, i.e. monthly data about inflow and outflow of currency at Bank Indonesia. The results show that the hybrid model tend to provide more accurate forecasts than individual forecasting models. Moreover, this result is also in line with the third results of the M3 competition, i.e. the hybrid model on average provides a more accurate forecast than the individual model.

A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

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Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

2016-04-01

It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area

WRONGFUL TRADING: COMPARATIVE APPROACH (ENGLAND AND WALES, RUSSIA AND THE USA

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D. Konstantinov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is designed to discover legal rules addressing insolvency trading in three jurisdictions: England and Wales, Russia and the USA. Originally it was a master’s dissertation written under supervision of Ms. Sarah Paterson, who was extremely helpful and patient. The key jurisdiction for the research is England and Wales, whose wrongful trading provision apparently was the very first insolvency regulation in the field. Here, we will give particular attention to the factual circumstances of insolvency trading and research how the concept of wrongful trading addresses them. The next question will be how the American concept of deepening insolvency and the Russian concept of subsidiary liability are comparable with wrongful trading. Later, we will focus on the functions that should be performed by the regulations. Also, the effectiveness of wrongful trading and similar overseas provisions will be examined. Finally, this paper attempts to find obstacles to the wide application of wrongful trading provision.

Embracing the UNCRC in Wales (UK): Policy, Pedagogy and Prejudices

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Lyle, Sue

2014-01-01

Most countries are signatories to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC). In 1999, the Government of Wales was devolved from the UK, and in 2011 the "Children and Young Persons Rights Measure" put the UNCRC as the basis of all its work. Any programme introduced in schools should therefore promote the UNCRC. To…

An Environmental Sector Plan for the nuclear industry in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennett, D.; Fawcett, P.; Hunt, C.; Long, J.

2004-01-01

The Environment Agency is the principal environmental regulator in England and Wales. As part of its longer term strategic planning, it is developing 'Sector Plans' for the major industry sectors it regulates. The intent of Sector Plans is to promote improvement of the Industry's performance in order to deliver environmental benefit. One of the pilot Sector Plans developed has been for the nuclear sector. The Nuclear Sector Plan has been produced jointly with the nuclear industry as a rolling framework of agreed national environmental objectives and priorities. Operators of nuclear sites have agreed to use this framework as a basis in England and Wales for setting environmental performance targets, monitoring performance against the targets and publicly reporting on their performance. The paper describes the development of the Sector Plan, its content and further development. (Author) 3 refs

Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

2008-01-01

To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

Respectability, morality and disgust in the night‐time economy: exploring reactions to ‘lap dance’ clubs in England and Wales

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Hubbard, Phil; Colosi, Rachela

2015-01-01

Abstract The night‐time economy is often described as repelling consumers fearful of the ‘undesirable Others’ imagined dominant within such time‐spaces. In this paper we explore this by describing attitudes towards, and reactions to, one particularly contentious site: the ‘lap dance’ club. Often targeted by campaigners in England and Wales as a source of criminality and anti‐sociality, in this paper we shift the focus from fear to disgust, and argue that Sexual Entertainment Venues (SEVs) are opposed on the basis of moral judgments that reflect distinctions of both class and gender. Drawing on documentary analysis, survey results and interview data collected during guided walks, we detail the concerns voiced by those anxious about the presence of lap dance or striptease clubs in their town or city, particularly the notion that they ‘lower the tone’ of particular streets or neighbourhoods. Our conclusion is that the opposition expressed to lap dance clubs is part of an attempt to police the boundaries of respectable masculinities and femininities, marginalizing the producers and consumers of sexual entertainment through ‘speech acts’ which identify such entertainment as unruly, vulgar and uncivilized. These findings are considered in the light of ongoing debates concerning the relations of morality, respectability and disgust. PMID:27708460

Zircon dating of Devonian-Carboniferous rocks from the Bombala area, New South Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sircombe, K.N.; McQueen, K.G.

2000-01-01

Zircons from two igneous and two sedimentary units in the Bombala area of southeastern New South Wales have been examined by the sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) to establish a time frame in which to interpret these rocks. Previous studies have correlated these rocks with Late Devonian units of the south coast, solely upon the basis of stratigraphy and lithology as palaeontological evidence was absent. The two igneous units are the Hospital Porphyry and Paradise Porphyry occurring beneath the sedimentary units. Both give a Frasnian age that can be correlated with the Boyd Volcanic Complex. The sedimentary samples are from the basal and upper sections of the Rosemeath Formation, a fluvial 'redbed' consisting of conglomerate, coarse sandstone, and associated red siltstone and mudstone. Detrital zircons from the basal conglomeratic section at Kilbrechin indicate a dominant provenance from local Silurian granites and volcanics and a maximum depositional age that can be correlated with the Frasnian-Famennian Merrimbula Group. However, detrital zircons from the upper coarse sandstone section of the Rosemeath Formation at Endeavour Lookout challenge the positive correlation trend with a lack of Silurian-age grains and a presence of grains ranging from Late Devonian to Early Carboniferous in age. These results imply either that the south coast correlation is not valid for the upper sequences, or that the Merrimbula Group sequences also extend upward into the Carboniferous. The general coarseness of the Rosemeath Formation also suggests a relatively local provenance. No Early Carboniferous source is known in the immediate vicinity suggesting that Early Carboniferous igneous activity in this region of the Lachlan Orogen may have been more extensive than is currently realised. Copyright (1999) Geological Society of Australia

Preterm birth time trends in Europe: A study of 19 countries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeitlin, J.; Szamotulska, K.; Drewniak, N.; Mohangoo, A.D.; Chalmers, J.; Sakkeus, L.; Irgens, L.; Gatt, M.; Gissler, M.; Blondel, B.

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery. Design Analysis of aggregate data from routine sources. Setting Nineteen European countries. Population Live births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Methods Annual risk ratios of

Theoretical Framework of Leadership in Higher Education of England and Wales

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Mukan, Nataliya; Havrylyuk, Marianna; Stolyarchuk, Lesia

2015-01-01

In the article the theoretical framework of leadership in higher education of England and Wales has been studied. The main objectives of the article are defined as analysis of scientific and pedagogical literature, which highlights different aspects of the problem under research; characteristic of the theoretical fundamentals of educational…

Epidemiology of parainfluenza infection in England and Wales, 1998-2013: any evidence of change?

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, H; Harris, R J; Ellis, J; Donati, M; Pebody, R G

2017-04-01

Human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) infections are one of the commonest causes of upper and lower respiratory tract infections. In order to determine if there have been any recent changes in HPIV epidemiology in England and Wales, laboratory surveillance data between 1998 and 2013 were analysed. The UK national laboratory surveillance database, LabBase, and the newly established laboratory-based virological surveillance system, the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS), were used. Descriptive analysis was performed to examine the distribution of cases by year, age, sex and serotype, and to examine the overall temporal trend using the χ 2 test. A random-effects model was also employed to model the number of cases. Sixty-eight per cent of all HPIV detections were due to HPIV type 3 (HPIV-3). HPIV-3 infections were detected all year round but peaked annually between March and June. HPIV-1 and HPIV-2 circulated at lower levels accounting for 20% and 8%, respectively, peaking during the last quarter of the year with a biennial cycle. HPIV-4 was detected in smaller numbers, accounting for only 4% and also mainly observed in the last quarter of the year. However, in recent years, HPIV-4 detection has been reported much more commonly with an increase from 0% in 1998 to 3·7% in 2013. Although an overall higher proportion of HPIV infection was reported in infants (43·0%), a long-term decreasing trend in proportion in infants was observed. An increase was also observed in older age groups. Continuous surveillance will be important in tracking any future changes.

Neofusicoccum luteum associated with leaf necrosis and fruit rot of olives in New South Wales, Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Sergeeva

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Neofusicoccum luteum is reported for the first time from olives (Olea europaea, causing fruit rot and leaf necrosis. Affected fruits initially became brown with pycnidia developing on the surface, later drying out and becoming mummified. The fungus was shown to be pathogenic on both fruits and leaves. The association of Botryosphaeriaceae with rotting olive fruits in Mediterranean regions and in New South Wales, Australia indicates that these fungi play a significant role in fruit rots of olives and deserve greater attention.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Science.gov (United States)

Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

2016-01-01

Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

2016-01-01

This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jae-Won Park

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021, and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

2010-01-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis.

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Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid

2008-06-30

Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

Evaluation of the national Cleanyourhands campaign to reduce Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and Clostridium difficile infection in hospitals in England and Wales by improved hand hygiene: four year, prospective, ecological, interrupted time series study.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Sheldon Paul; Fuller, Christopher; Savage, Joan; Cookson, Barry; Hayward, Andrew; Cooper, Ben; Duckworth, Georgia; Michie, Susan; Murray, Miranda; Jeanes, Annette; Roberts, J; Teare, Louise; Charlett, Andre

2012-05-03

To evaluate the impact of the Cleanyourhands campaign on rates of hospital procurement of alcohol hand rub and soap, report trends in selected healthcare associated infections, and investigate the association between infections and procurement. Prospective, ecological, interrupted time series study from 1 July 2004 to 30 June 2008. 187 acute trusts in England and Wales. Installation of bedside alcohol hand rub, materials promoting hand hygiene and institutional engagement, regular hand hygiene audits, rolled out nationally from 1 December 2004. Quarterly (that is, every three months) rates for each trust of hospital procurement of alcohol hand rub and liquid soap; Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (meticillin resistant (MRSA) and meticillin sensitive (MSSA)) and Clostridium difficile infection for each trust. Associations between procurement and infection rates assessed by mixed effect Poisson regression model (which also accounted for effect of bed occupancy, hospital type, and timing of other national interventions targeting these infections). Combined procurement of soap and alcohol hand rub tripled from 21.8 to 59.8 mL per patient bed day; procurement rose in association with each phase of the campaign. Rates fell for MRSA bacteraemia (1.88 to 0.91 cases per 10,000 bed days) and C difficile infection (16.75 to 9.49 cases). MSSA bacteraemia rates did not fall. Increased procurement of soap was independently associated with reduced C difficile infection throughout the study (adjusted incidence rate ratio for 1 mL increase per patient bed day 0.993, 95% confidence interval 0.990 to 0.996; P hospital procurement of alcohol rub and soap, which the results suggest has an important role in reducing rates of some healthcare associated infections. National interventions for infection control undertaken in the context of a high profile political drive can reduce selected healthcare associated infections.

Capacity withholding in wholesale electricity markets: The experience in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, James Arnold

This thesis examines the incentives wholesale electricity generators face to withhold generating capacity from centralized electricity spot markets. The first chapter includes a brief history of electricity industry regulation in England and Wales and in the United States, including a description of key institutional features of England and Wales' restructured electricity market. The first chapter also includes a review of the literature on both bid price manipulation and capacity bid manipulation in centralized electricity markets. The second chapter details a theoretical model of wholesale generator behavior in a single price electricity market. A duopoly model is specified under the assumption that demand is non-stochastic. This model assumes that duopoly generators offer to sell electricity at their marginal cost, but can withhold a continuous segment of their capacity from the market. The Nash equilibrium withholding strategy of this model involves each duopoly generator withholding so that it produces the Cournot equilibrium output. A monopoly model along the lines of the duopoly model is specified and simulated under the assumption that demand is stochastic. The optimal strategy depends on the degree of demand uncertainty. When there is a moderate degree of demand uncertainty, the optimal withholding strategy involves production inefficiencies. When there is a high degree of demand uncertainty, the optimal monopoly quantity is greater than the optimal output level when demand is non-stochastic. The third chapter contains an empirical examination of the behavior of generators in the wholesale electricity market in England and Wales in the early 1990's. The wholesale market in England and Wales is analyzed because the industry structure in the early 1990's created a natural experiment, which is described in this chapter, whereby one of the two dominant generators had no incentive to behave non-competitively. This chapter develops a classification methodology

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010

OpenAIRE

Hern?ndez-Gardu?o, Eduardo; Mendoza-Dami?n, Fabiola; Gardu?o-Alan?s, Adriana; Ay?n-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-01-01

Background The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Methods Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. Results In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tub...

FIRE STUDIES IN MALLEE (EUCALYPTUS SPP.) COMMUNITIES OF WESTERN NEW SOUTH WALES: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL FLUXES IN SOIL CHEMISTRY AND SOIL BIOLOGY FOLLOWING PRESCRIBED FIRE.

Science.gov (United States)

The effects of prescribed fires on nutrient pools, soil-organisms, and vegetation patch dynamics were studied in three semi-arid mallee shrublands in western New South Wales. Repeated sampling of surface soil strata (0-2 and 2-4 cm) was undertaken at strategic times (immediately ...

Classification and evaluation of the functional results of replanted parts of the hand at the Prince of Wales Hospital and the Prince of Wales Children's Hospital: 1984 to 1988.

Science.gov (United States)

Milroy, B C; Sackelariou, R P; Lendvay, P G; Baldwin, M R; McGlynn, M

1991-01-01

This paper describes a simple method of classification and evaluation of the functional results of replanted and revascularized parts in the hand. The results are presented in graphic form and have been analyzed to correlate various factors: injured part, cause, and zone (level) of injury. The type of injury, ischemic time and age have been studied in more detail to determine their influence of the final functional result. The series contains 187 amputated and devascularized parts of the hand in 119 patients who have undergone surgery at the Prince of Wales Hospital from 1984 through 1988. The length of cold or warm ischemic times, up to 16 hours in this series, while not affecting survival of the amputated part, does adversely affect the functional result. The survival rate of replanted parts in children was significantly less favorable than in adults, but the functional results were uniformly superior.

Arthurian Toponymics: Folk Tradition or Antiquarian Invention? Review of the book: Lloyd, S. (2017. The Arthurian Place Names of Wales. Cardiff: University of Wales Press.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Will Parker

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The article reviews Scott Lloyd’s survey of Arthurian place names in Wales, and the background to this material in the literature and scholarship of the modern and medieval periods. The reviewer presents an overview of Lloyd’s scope and methodology, situating it within the context of current trends in the wider field of Celtic studies. Lloyd’s survey shows that Arthurian toponymics is a modern as much as a medieval problem. The mutual influence between the map-makers on one hand, and the scholars and story-tellers on the other, is best regarded as a dynamic work-in-progress, rather than a passive snapshot of timeless folk tradition. Lloyd’s most significant discovery is the relative fluidity of Arthurian toponymics, with many of the place names in question first appearing on the cartographic or literary record no earlier than the 19th century. The case of the common Welsh place name Arthur’s Quoits or Coetan Arthur is considered, and Lloyd’s implication of a 17th century origin for this form is critically discussed. Attention is drawn to the alternating currents of scepticism and reconstructionism that have defined Arthurian scholarship and literature from the Tudor period onwards. The author then offers some concluding thoughts on Arthur’s “ontological ambiguity,” and the powerful stimulus this seems to have exerted on topographical and historiographical speculation, both modern and medieval.

Building Effective Responses: An Independent Review of Violence against Women, Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence Services in Wales

OpenAIRE

Berry, Vashti Louise; Stanley, Nicky; Radford, Lorraine; McCarry, Melanie; Larkins, Cath

2014-01-01

Independent researchers from the Connect Centre for International Research on Interpersonal Violence based in the School of Social Work at the University of Central Lancashire were commissioned by the Welsh Government in 2013 to conduct research into violence against women, domestic abuse and sexual violence services in Wales. The research aimed to inform the forthcoming Ending Violence Against Women and Domestic Abuse (Wales) Bill, implementation of the legislation and future policy more gen...

Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.

1995-05-01

The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

Trend analysis of time-series data: A novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peters, S.; Janssen, H.-G.; Vivó-Truyols, G.

2010-01-01

A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical

Barriers to the use of Information and Communication Technology by occupational therapists working in a rural area of New South Wales, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Chedid, Rebecca Jean; Dew, Angela; Veitch, Craig

2013-06-01

This qualitative study formed part of a large-scale, multi-phase study into the delivery of therapy services to people with a disability, living in one rural area of New South Wales, Australia. The study's purpose was to identify the impact of Information and Communication Technology on the workforce practices of occupational therapists' working in a rural area of New South Wales. Individual semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 13 occupational therapists working in disability, health and private practice in a rural area of New South Wales. Participants were asked about access to, skills and limitations of using Information and Communication Technology. A modified grounded theory approach, based on thematic analysis and constant comparison, was used to analyse the interview transcripts. This study found widespread use of technology by rurally based occupational therapists working in the disability sector in New South Wales. However, Information and Communication Technology was primarily used for client contact, professional development and professional networking rather than therapy provision. The study identified individual, workplace and community barriers to greater uptake of Information and Communication Technology by this group. The individual barriers included: age cohort, knowledge and personal preferences. The workplace barriers included: support and training and availability of resources. The community barriers included: infrastructure and perceptions of clients' acceptance. The potential exists for Information and Communication Technology to supplement face-to-face therapy provision, enhance access to professional development and reduce professional isolation thereby addressing the rural challenges of large distances, travel times and geographic isolation. To overcome these challenges, individual, workplace and community Information and Communication Technology barriers should be addressed concurrently. © 2012 The Authors Australian

A mysterious giant ichthyosaur from the lowermost Jurassic of Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeremy E. Martin

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Ichthyosaurs rapidly diversified and colonised a wide range of ecological niches during the Early and Middle Triassic period, but experienced a major decline in diversity near the end of the Triassic. Timing and causes of this demise and the subsequent rapid radiation of the diverse, but less disparate, parvipelvian ichthyosaurs are still unknown, notably because of inadequate sampling in strata of latest Triassic age. Here, we describe an exceptionally large radius from Lower Jurassic deposits at Penarth near Cardiff, south Wales (UK the morphology of which places it within the giant Triassic shastasaurids. A tentative total body size estimate, based on a regression analysis of various complete ichthyosaur skeletons, yields a value of 12–15 m. The specimen is substantially younger than any previously reported last known occurrences of shastasaurids and implies a Lazarus range in the lowermost Jurassic for this ichthyosaur morphotype.

Onabotulinum toxin A dosage trends over time for adductor spasmodic dysphonia: A 15-year experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Christopher G; Novakovic, Daniel; Mor, Niv; Blitzer, Andrew

2016-03-01

Although onabotulinum neurotoxin A (BoNTA) has been used for over three decades for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia, no study has been performed to look at the trend of BoNTA dosages across time. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dosage trends to determine if the dosage necessary for voice improvement in patients increases over time. Charts were reviewed for patients with 15 years or more of experience. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine correlation coefficients and trends. Fifty-five patients receiving BoNTA injections by the senior author (a.b.) for over 15 years were evaluated. Thirty-nine patients (82% female) met inclusion criteria. Patients received injections over an average of 18.6 years ± 1.36 years, with the longest follow-up of 21.5 years. Of 39 patients, 16 (41%) had a negative correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) suggesting a decrease over time, whereas 23 (59%) had a positive correlation coefficient suggesting an increase over time. The mean correlation coefficient was 0.139 ± 0.534 and P  0.05 in 20 patients. R(2) for all patients were less than 0.75. Onabotulinum neurotoxin A injection dosage trends vary depending on the individual over time. Overall, the dose range appears to be stable in the majority of patients, suggesting that tolerance does not play a significant part in dose variation over time. 4. Laryngoscope, 126:678-681, 2016. © 2015 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975-2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandemakers, J.J.; Roeters, A.

2015-01-01

The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

The law concerning the conduct of lineups in England and Wales: how well does it satisfy the recommendations of the American Psychology-Law Society?

Science.gov (United States)

Kebbell, M R

2000-06-01

Four rules minimize the likelihood of a false conviction resulting from the misidentification of a suspect from a lineup: (1) The person conducting the lineup should not know which member of the lineup is the suspect. (2) The eyewitness should be warned that the criminal might not be present. (3) Foils should be selected based on the eyewitness's verbal description of the criminal. (4) Confidence should be recorded at the time of identification. In this paper the relevant law relating to lineups in England and Wales is outlined and the extent to which they satisfy the four rules is reviewed. It is concluded that the way in which lineups are conducted in England and Wales would, with minor modifications, satisfy the four rules, and this demonstrates that the rules can be applied practically.

Electronic properties of graphene with single vacancy and Stone-Wales defects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaminpayma, Esmaeil; Razavi, Mohsen Emami; Nayebi, Payman

2017-01-01

Highlights: • The electronic properties of graphene device with single vacancy (SV) and Stone-Wales (SW) defect have been studied. • The first principles calculations have been performed based on self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding. • The density of state, current voltage curves of pure graphene and graphene with SV and SW defects have been investigated. • Transmission spectrum of pristine graphene device and graphene with SV and SW defects has been examined. - Abstract: The first principles calculations have been performed based on self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding in order to examine the electronic properties of graphene with single vacancy (SV) and Stone-Wales (SW) defects. We have optimized structures of pristine graphene and graphene with SV and SW defects. The bond lengths, current-voltage curve and transmission probability have been calculated. We found that the bond length for relaxed graphene is 1.43 Å while for graphene with SV and SW defects the bond lengths are 1.41 Å and 1.33 Å, respectively. For the SV defect, the arrangement of atoms with three nearest neighbors indicates sp_2 bonding. While for SW defect, the arrangement of atoms suggests nearly sp bonding. From the current-voltage curve for graphene with defects we have determined that the behavior of the I–V curves is nonlinear. It is also found that the SV and SW defects cause to decrease the current compared to the pristine graphene case. Furthermore, the single vacancy defect reduces the current more than the Stone-Wales defect. Moreover, we observed that by increasing the voltage from zero to 1 V new peaks near Fermi level in the transmission probability curves have been created.

Electronic properties of graphene with single vacancy and Stone-Wales defects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaminpayma, Esmaeil [Physics Group, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Razavi, Mohsen Emami, E-mail: razavi246@gmail.com [Plasma Physics Research Center, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, P.O. Box 14665-678, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Nayebi, Payman [Department of Physics, College of Technical and Engineering, Saveh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Saveh (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2017-08-31

Highlights: • The electronic properties of graphene device with single vacancy (SV) and Stone-Wales (SW) defect have been studied. • The first principles calculations have been performed based on self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding. • The density of state, current voltage curves of pure graphene and graphene with SV and SW defects have been investigated. • Transmission spectrum of pristine graphene device and graphene with SV and SW defects has been examined. - Abstract: The first principles calculations have been performed based on self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding in order to examine the electronic properties of graphene with single vacancy (SV) and Stone-Wales (SW) defects. We have optimized structures of pristine graphene and graphene with SV and SW defects. The bond lengths, current-voltage curve and transmission probability have been calculated. We found that the bond length for relaxed graphene is 1.43 Å while for graphene with SV and SW defects the bond lengths are 1.41 Å and 1.33 Å, respectively. For the SV defect, the arrangement of atoms with three nearest neighbors indicates sp{sub 2} bonding. While for SW defect, the arrangement of atoms suggests nearly sp bonding. From the current-voltage curve for graphene with defects we have determined that the behavior of the I–V curves is nonlinear. It is also found that the SV and SW defects cause to decrease the current compared to the pristine graphene case. Furthermore, the single vacancy defect reduces the current more than the Stone-Wales defect. Moreover, we observed that by increasing the voltage from zero to 1 V new peaks near Fermi level in the transmission probability curves have been created.

Euthanasia: a summary of the law in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Simillis, Constantinos

2008-07-01

When medical treatment becomes futile, or the patient's suffering is intractable, doctors face the agonising dilemma of whether to proceed with euthanasia. It is important for a doctor to be familiar with the law surrounding euthanasia, in order to avoid prosecution. This paper explores the law in England and Wales regarding the different categories of euthanasia: voluntary euthanasia, nonvoluntary euthanasia, passive euthanasia, and active euthanasia.

Time Delay Systems Methods, Applications and New Trends

CERN Document Server

Vyhlídal, Tomáš; Niculescu, Silviu-Iulian; Pepe, Pierdomenico

2012-01-01

This volume is concerned with the control and dynamics of time delay systems; a research field with at least six-decade long history that has been very active especially in the past two decades. In parallel to the new challenges emerging from engineering, physics, mathematics, and economics, the volume covers several new directions including topology induced stability, large-scale interconnected systems, roles of networks in stability, and new trends in predictor-based control and consensus dynamics. The associated applications/problems are described by highly complex models, and require solving inverse problems as well as the development of new theories, mathematical tools, numerically-tractable algorithms for real-time control. The volume, which is targeted to present these developments in this rapidly evolving field, captures a careful selection of the most recent papers contributed by experts and collected under five parts: (i) Methodology: From Retarded to Neutral Continuous Delay Models, (ii) Systems, S...

Indigenous Gambling Motivations, Behaviour and Consequences in Northern New South Wales, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Breen, Helen M.; Hing, Nerilee; Gordon, Ashley

2011-01-01

Against a background of public health, we sought to examine and explain gambling behaviours, motivations and consequences of Indigenous Australians in northern New South Wales. Adhering to national Aboriginal and ethical guidelines and using qualitative methods, 169 Indigenous Australians were interviewed individually and in small groups using…

HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

2014-05-01

The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, de R.; Bruin, de S.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Schaepman, M.E.; Dent, D.L.

2011-01-01

Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt

The Contribution of the New South Wales Primary Schools Sports Association towards Developing Talent in Australian 12-Year-Old Female Swimmers

Science.gov (United States)

Light, Richard

2012-01-01

This article reports on a case study that inquired into the influence of the New South Wales Primary Schools Sports Association competitive swimming structure on the development of talented 12-year old female swimmers. The study focused on ten 12-year old girls in the New South Wales team that contested the 2009 national swimming championships…

Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

Time trends in physical activity from 1982 to 2012 in Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Borodulin, K; Harald, K; Jousilahti, P; Laatikainen, T; Männistö, S; Vartiainen, E

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine population trends from 1982 to 2012 in Finland for leisure time physical activity (LTPA), commuting physical activity (CPA), occupational physical activity (OPA), and total physical activity. Furthermore, time trends in physical activity by educational levels and body mass index (BMI) categories were explored. Data were collected in independent cross-sectional population surveys, implemented every 5 years from 1982 to 2012. The data comprised 21,903 men and 24,311 women. Participants underwent a health examination and filled in questionnaires. Information on LTPA, CPA, and OPA was used both separately and combined to create an index of total physical activity. Between 1982 and 2012, high LTPA has increased in men (from 21% to 33%) and women (from 12% to 27%). High CPA and high OPA have decreased in men (from 17% to 12% and from 48% to 36%, respectively) and women (from 30% to 20% and from 26% to 21%, respectively). Total physical activity has remained fairly stable. Differences by education and BMI have increased, particularly for LTPA. Marked changes in physical activity have taken place over time. Differences in LTPA and OPA have grown wider across educational groups and BMI categories. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

From Assimilation to Anti-Racism: Changing Educational Policies in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, J. K. P.

1988-01-01

Although multicultural education has long been touted as an important educational goal in schools in England and Wales, very little has actually changed. Some individuals purporting to support anti-racist education and some governmental policies have actually undermined the little progress made toward preparing teachers and students for a…

Sustainability of Curriculum Development for Enterprise Education: Observations on Cases from Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Roffe, Ian

2010-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the variety of approaches to curriculum development for enterprise education developed for schools, further, and higher education under an Entrepreneurship Action Plan in Wales and to consider the sustainability issues for delivery in these sectors. Design/methodology/approach: This investigation adopted a case…

Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Bjerregaard

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

Greenhouse gas inventories for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: 1990 and 1995. A scoping study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salway, A.G.; Dore, C.; Watterson, J.; Murrells, T.

1999-11-01

This report presents the results of a scoping study to develop a methodology to produce desegregated greenhouse gas emission inventories for the devoved administrations of the UK. Separate greenhouse gas emission inventories were estimated for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland for the years 1990 and 1995. The gases reported are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and SF{sub 6}. The estimates are consistent with the 1997 UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory and hence the UNFCCC reporting guidelines. Some emissions mainly mobile and offshore sources could not be allocated to any region, so an extra unallocated category was used to report these. Where possible the same methodology was used to calculate the regional emissions as for the UK Inventory. The study showed that the distribution of regional greenhouse gas emissions expressed as global warming potentials in 1995 were: England 75.5%, Scotland, 11.4%; Wales 6.4%; Northern Ireland 3.1%: unallocated, 4%. Following this scoping study, it is intended to publish annually disaggregated inventories for each year from 1990 for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, in addition to the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory. 50 refs., 6 figs., 16 tabs., 2 apps.

Myxomatosis in farmland rabbit populations in England and Wales.

OpenAIRE

Ross, J.; Tittensor, A. M.; Fox, A. P.; Sanders, M. F.

1989-01-01

The overall pattern and consequences of myxomatosis in wild rabbit populations were studied at three farmland sites in lowland southern England and upland central Wales between 1971 and 1978. When results from all years were combined, the disease showed a clear two-peaked annual cycle, with a main autumn peak between August and January, and a subsidiary spring peak during February to April. Rabbit fleas, the main vectors of myxomatosis in Britain, were present on full-grown rabbits in suffici...

Crime and immigration: new evidence from England and Wales

OpenAIRE

Laura Jaitman; Stephen Machin

2013-01-01

We study a high profile public policy question on immigration, namely the link between crime and immigration, presenting new evidence from England and Wales in the 2000s. For studying immigration impacts, this period is of considerable interest as the composition of migration to the UK altered dramatically with the accession of Eastern European countries (the A8) to the European Union in 2004. As we show, this has important implications for ensuring a causal impact of immigration can be ident...

Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

2013-01-01

analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Reforming birth registration law in England and Wales?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie McCandless

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The Law Commission of England and Wales is considering what its 13th Programme of Law Reform should address. During the consultation process, a project on birth registration law has been mooted. This is a very welcome proposal given that civil birth registration in England and Wales is a compulsory procedure that not only finds its roots in the early Victorian era, but also remains very similar, at least in terms of form and the information that is recorded. I first use two recent legal challenges to illustrate why the current system is coming under increasing pressure. I further use these examples to caution against a law reform agenda that is narrowly focused on the precise information recorded, without a preliminary and wider examination of what the role and purpose of birth registration is, and should be, in society. I argue that this needs to be addressed before the state can justify the parameters of the information recorded. I then use an outline of historical reforms relating to the registration of births outside of marriage to highlight the normative two-parent family model that underpins the birth registration system. I argue that legal reform must be cognizant of the tenacity of this normative family model, particularly in relation to reform proposals surrounding donor conception and the annotation of birth certificates. Finally, I draw attention to wider developments in family law that cast birth registration as a social policy tool for the facilitation of parent–child relationships, particularly unmarried fathers.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Right care, right place, right time: improving the timeliness of health care in New South Wales through a public-private hospital partnership.

Science.gov (United States)

Saunders, Carla; Carter, David J

2017-10-01

Objective The overall aim of the study was to investigate and assess the feasibility of improving the timeliness of public hospital care through a New South Wales (NSW)-wide public-private hospital partnership. Methods The study reviewed the academic and professional grey literature, and undertook exploratory analyses of secondary data acquired from two national health data repositories informing in-patient access and utilisation across NSW public and private hospitals. Results In 2014-15, the NSW public hospital system was unable to deliver care within the medically recommended time frame for over 27400 people who were awaiting elective surgery. Available information indicates that the annual commissioning of 15% of public in-patient rehabilitation bed days to the private hospital system would potentially free up enough capacity in the NSW public hospital system to enable elective surgery for all public patients within recommended time frames. Conclusions The findings of the study justify a strategic whole-of-health system approach to reducing public patient wait times in NSW and highlight the need for research efforts aimed at securing a better understanding of available hospital capacity across the public and private hospital systems, and identifying and testing workable models that improve the timeliness of public hospital care. What is known about the topic? There are very few studies available to inform public-private hospital service partnerships and the opportunities available to improve timely health care access through such partnerships. What does this paper add? This paper has the potential to open and prompt timely discussion and debate, and generate further fundamental investigation, on public-private hospital service partnerships in Australia where opportunity is available to address elective surgery wait times in a reliable and effective manner. What are the implications for practitioners? The NSW Ministry of Health and its Local Health Districts

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Historical Child Sexual Abuse in England and Wales: The Role of Historians

Science.gov (United States)

Bingham, Adrian; Delap, Lucy; Jackson, Louise; Settle, Louise

2016-01-01

This article reflects on methodological and ethical issues that have shaped a collaborative project which aims to chart social, legal and political responses to child sexual abuse in England and Wales across the twentieth century. The etymological problem of searching for child sexual abuse in the historical archive is discussed, given that the…

School Outcomes in New South Wales and Queensland: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Paul W.; Voon, Derby

2014-01-01

This paper examines the differences in school (NAPLAN) outcomes between New South Wales and Queensland. It shows that there are pronounced differences in Year 3 NAPLAN results between these states, though these dissipate when later class years are considered. The reasons for these state effects in school outcomes are explored using an empirical…

Fast or slow food? Explaining trends in food-related time in the Netherlands, 1975–2005

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mandemakers, Jornt; Roeters, Anne|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304837865

2015-01-01

The current study analysed trends in the time spent preparing and consuming food and the frequency of outsourcing (going out for dinner and take-out) in the Netherlands from 1975 to 2005. We investigated differences between trends on week and weekend days and for different socio-demographic groups.

Time Trends and Educational Inequalities in Out-of-Hospital Coronary Deaths in Norway 1995-2009

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sulo, Enxhela; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil

2017-01-01

using Poisson regression analysis with year as the independent, continuous variable. Information on the highest achieved education was obtained from The National Education Database and classified as primary (up to 10 years of compulsory education), secondary (high school or vocational school......BACKGROUND: Recent time trends and educational gradients characterizing out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCD) are poorly described. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified all deaths from coronary heart disease occurring outside the hospital in Norway during 1995 to 2009. Time trends were explored......), or tertiary (college/university). Educational gradients in OHCD were explored using Poisson regression, stratified by sex and age (

The role of alcohol and drugs in homicides in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Jenny; Hunt, Isabelle M; Flynn, Sandra; Amos, Tim; Meehan, Janet; Robinson, Jo; Bickley, Harriet; Parsons, Rebecca; McCann, Kerry; Burns, James; Kapur, Nav; Appleby, Louis

2006-08-01

The annual number of homicide convictions in England and Wales is increasing. Previous studies have highlighted the aetiological role of alcohol and drugs in homicide. To examine rates of alcohol and drug misuse and dependence in people convicted of homicide; the role of alcohol and drugs in the offence; the social and clinical characteristics of alcohol- and drug-related homicides; and the social and clinical characteristics of patients with dual diagnosis who commit homicide. A national clinical survey based on a 3-year (1996-9) consecutive sample of people convicted of homicide in England and Wales. Information on rates of alcohol and drug misuse/dependence, the role of alcohol and drugs in the offence and social and clinical characteristics of perpetrators were collected from psychiatric reports prepared for the court in homicide convictions. Detailed clinical information was gathered from questionnaires completed by mental health teams for those in contact with mental health services. Of the 1594 homicide perpetrators, more than one-third (42%) occurred in people with a history of alcohol misuse or dependence and 40% in people with a history of drug misuse or dependence. Alcohol or drug misuse played a contributory role in two-fifths of homicides. Alcohol played a major role in 52 (6%) and a minor role in 364 (39%) homicides. Drugs played a major role in six (1%) and a minor role in 138 (14%) homicides. Forty-two homicides (17%) were committed by patients with severe mental illness and substance misuse. Alcohol- and drug-related homicides were generally associated with male perpetrators who had a history of violence, personality disorders, mental health service contact and with stranger victims. Substance misuse contributes to the majority of homicides in England and Wales. A public health approach to homicide would highlight alcohol and drugs before severe mental illness.

A survey of non-accidental injury imaging in England, Scotland and Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

James, S L.J.; Halliday, K; Somers, J; Broderick, N

2003-09-01

AIM: To identify the potential national variation in non-accidental injury (NAI) imaging in England, Scotland and Wales. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A postal survey was sent to 323 hospitals with both paediatric and radiology departments. These were identified by a search through the Medical Directory. RESULTS: One hundred and thirteen of 323 postal questionnaires were returned within the study period (35%). Sixteen were excluded from the study because either no NAI imaging was performed at that institution or an incorrect address had been used. The total number of completed questionnaires was 97 (30%). Extensive variation was seen in all aspects of NAI imaging including imaging techniques used, total case numbers, follow-up imaging and those who report the NAI imaging. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently no national protocol that incorporates all aspects of NAI imaging in England, Scotland and Wales. Extensive variation in practice has been shown by this survey. Further standardization of NAI imaging practice is required. The draft BSPR skeletal survey guidelines and routine neurological imaging is recommended.

Is there a time trend in medical practice variations?: a review of the literature and an critical analysis of theoretical approaches.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewegen, P.P.; Westert, G.P.

2004-01-01

The aim of this study was to review the research evidence for a decreasing time trend in medical practice variation and to contribute to our theoretical understanding of trends in medical practice variations. We searched Pubmed for articles reporting on time trends in medical practice variations.

Germination of native understorey species for revegetation of New South Wales coal mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillespie, M.J.; Bellairs, S.M.; Mulligan, D.R. [University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Qld. (Australia). Dept. of Agriculture and Centre for Mined Land Rehabilitation

1997-06-01

This project investigates the suitability of a range of native understorey species for rehabilitation at several coal mines in New South Wales. The germination of seeds from 69 species representing 12 families was tested under controlled laboratory conditions. Germination occurred in all but two of the species tested and 50% germination was exceeded by 29 species. Species of the Mimosaceae, Fabaceae and Proteaceae tended to have above average germination; however species representing other families had variable germination results. A pre-germination heat treatment applied to all of the Acacia species increased germination in some but not all species. Seeds of these understorey species which were used in this trial, are native to the New South Wales coal fields and available commercially or are relatively easy to collect. Glasshouse and field trials are now being undertaken to assess establishment and growth on mine soil, spoil and coal reject materials. 9 refs., 5 figs.

Transition mechanism of Stone-Wales defect in armchair edge (5,5) carbon nanotube

Science.gov (United States)

Setiadi, Agung; Suprijadi

2015-04-01

We performed first principles calculations of Stone-Wales (SW) defects in armchair edge (5,5) carbon nanotube (CNT) by the density functional theory (DFT). Stone Wales (SW) defect is one kind of topological defect on the CNT. There are two kind of SW defect on the armchair edge (5,5) CNT, such as longitudinal and circumference SW defect. Barrier energy in the formation of SW defects is a good consideration to become one of parameter in controlling SW defects on the CNT. Our calculation results that a longitudinal SW defect is more stable than circumference SW defect. However, the barrier energy of circumference SW defect is lower than another one. We applied Climbing Image Nudge Elastic Band (CI-NEB) method to find minimum energy path (MEP) and barrier energy for SW defect transitions. We also found that in the case of circumference SW defect, armchair edge (5,5) CNT become semiconductor with the band gap of 0.0544 eV.

Prayer, personality and happiness: a study among undergraduate students in Wales

OpenAIRE

Robbins, Mandy; Francis, Leslie J.; Edwards, Bethan

2008-01-01

In order to examine the association between prayer and happiness, a sample of 131 undergraduate students attending a university in Wales completed three measures: the Oxford Happiness Questionnaire, the abbreviated Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised, and prayer frequency assessed on a 5-point scale. The data demonstrated a significant positive correlation between prayer frequency and happiness before controlling for individual differences in personality. After controlling for personali...

Public value at risk from Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae spread in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Drake, Ben; Jones, Glyn

2017-04-15

Heritage gardens, heathland and woodland are increasingly under threat from the non-native tree and plant diseases Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae. However, there exist only limited literature that estimates the public non-market value that may be lost from a continued spread of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae into these habitats. This paper therefore uses a contingent valuation survey to assess the non-extractive public use and non-use values at risk from an uncontrolled spread of these diseases in England and Wales. Results estimate that £1.446bn of public value is at risk in England and Wales per year from an uncontrolled spread of Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae. The greatest public value at risk, of £578  m/year, is from an uncontrolled spread of these diseases to heritage gardens, while the lowest public value at risk, of £386  m/year, is from disease spread to heathland. The findings of this paper should help policymakers make informed decisions as to the public resources to dedicate towards Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae control in England and Wales. In this regard, the current control programme to contain these diseases appears cost-effective in light of the public value at risk estimates produced by this paper. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Naturally occurring radioactive materials at New South Wales mines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLaughlin, Robert

2013-01-01

Until recently mines in New South Wales have been largely exempt from the provisions of the Radiation Control Act with respect to radioactive ore being mined and processed. Legislative changes and the national harmonisation efforts for mine safety regulation have drawn attention to the emerging issue of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM). While mine operators are already obliged under their duty of care to manage this hazard, specific control measures are increasingly expected by the community and regulators. This applies throughout the whole mine life cycle from exploration right through to rehabilitation.

Women's Work or Creative Work? Embroidery in New South Wales High Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Susan

2009-01-01

Embroidery is traditionally regarded as women's work and the teaching of embroidery as a means of preparing young women for domesticity, a view which has been reinforced by historians studying changes in the high school art curriculum that occurred with the introduction of the Wyndham Scheme in New South Wales in the early 1960s. This paper argues…

Early Jurassic allotherians from South Wales (United Kingdom

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. A. Clemens

2007-02-01

Full Text Available Fossils from two fissure fillings in Pant Quarry (designated Pant 4 and Pant 5, South Wales, United Kingdom, probably of Early Jurassic age document a taxonomically diverse vertebrate fauna, the Morganucodon-sphenodont fauna, composed of several kinds of reptiles, non-mammalian synapsids, and mammals. Six isolated molariform teeth from Pant 4 and 5 fissures clearly record the presence of Thomasia (Mammalia, Allotheria, Haramiyidae, a genus previously known only from purported Late Triassic faunas of southwestern England, France, Belgium, Luxemburg, Germany, and Switzerland. Small morphological differences from teeth in the larger English and continental European samples warrant identification of the Welsh material as Thomasia cf. moorei. The highly derived morphology of an isolated molariform tooth from Pant 5 fissure indicates the presence of another, possibly allotherian, taxon. Fossilien aus zwei wahrscheinlich unterjurassischen Spaltenfüllungen (Pant 4 und Pant 5 im Steinbruch Pant in Süd-Wales dokumentieren eine taxonomisch diverse Wirbeltierfauna. Diese Morganucodon-Sphenodontiden-Fauna besteht aus verschiedenen Formen von Reptilien, Synapsiden und Säugetieren. Sechs isolierte molariforme Zähne aus den Spaltenfüllungen Pant 4 und Pant 5 belegen eindeutig das Vorkommen von Thomasia (Mammalia, Allotheria, Haramiyidae, einer bisher nur aus vermutlich obertriassischen Faunen Südwest-Englands, Frankreichs, Belgiens, Luxemburgs, Deutschlands und der Schweiz bekannten Gattung. Geringe morphologische Unterschiede zu dem umfangreicheren Material aus England und Kontinental-Europa sprechen für die Identifikation des neuen Materials als Thomasia cf. moorei. Die stark abgeleitete Morphologie eines isolierten molariformen Zahnes aus der Spalte Pant 5 belegt das Vorkommen eines anderen Taxons, das möglicherweise auch den Allotheria zuzuordnen ist. doi:10.1002/mmng.200600018

Life expectancy estimation in small administrative areas with non-uniform population sizes: application to Australian New South Wales local government areas

OpenAIRE

Stephens, Alexandre S; Purdie, Stuart; Yang, Baohui; Moore, Helen

2013-01-01

Objective To determine a practical approach for deriving life expectancy estimates in Australian New South Wales local government areas which display a large diversity in population sizes. Design Population-based study utilising mortality and estimated residential population data. Setting 153 local government areas in New South Wales, Australia. Outcome measures Key performance measures of Chiang II, Silcocks, adjusted Chiang II and Bayesian random effects model methodologies of life expectan...

New South Wales coal strategy. Volume 1 - strategic plan. Volume 2 - industry review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-01-01

The committee has concluded that while the outlook for coal demand growth is less optimistic than it was in 1981, nonetheless significant additional opportunities will arise in the medium term and that proper planning will place New South Wales in a strong position to take advantage of them.

Review of Historic Parishes of England and Wales: An Electronic Map of Boundaries before 1850 with a Gazetteer and Metadata.

OpenAIRE

Thomas Pickles

2002-01-01

According to the authors, Historic Parishes of England and Wales aims to provide one possible solution to 'a major lacuna militating against the effective exploitation of many post-medieval to mid-Victorian historical sources collected by local administrative areas.' That is 'the lack of information on the boundaries of those administrative areas: the so-called "historic" or "ancient" parishes of England and Wales.' There is no doubt that this is indeed a problem, and that such informatio...

Proposals for the Radioactive Substances (Basic Safety Standards) (England and Wales) Regulations 2000 and the Radioactive Substances (Basic Safety Standards) (England and Wales) Direction 2000. Consultative document

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

This document contains proposals for changes to the Radioactive Substances Act 1993 (RSA 93) and proposals for a Direction to be given to the Environment Agency in order to implement aspects of the European Directive 96/29/Euratom concerned with the control of radioactive waste. The Directive lays down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionising radiation. With the Government pledged to making government more accessible and responsive, an important feature of this approach is effective consultation with all interested organisations. This leads to more realistic and robust proposals, which is particularly important when dealing with proposed legislation. In March this year, the Government published a consultation paper 'The Radioactive Substances Act 1993: Implementing the Revised Basic Safety Standards Directive Euratom 96/29.' This sought comments on the basic principles for change - including the setting of levels of radioactivity below which radioactive material should be considered outside the framework of regulatory control. This document forms the second stage of the consultation process with the aim of gathering views on the proposed legal instruments to implement the Directive. This document: explains the background to the proposed regulations (paragraphs 8-13); summarises the results of the consultation on principles (paragraphs 14-24); describes the proposed changes (paragraphs 25-36); includes draft Regulations (paragraphs 27-29); includes a draft Direction to the Environment Agency (paragraphs 30-36); describes the next steps (paragraphs 37-39); includes a draft Regulatory Impact Assessment (paragraphs 40-41). In general, the devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have assumed responsibility for environmental issues and hence management of radioactive waste policies and legislation affecting their respective countries. However, this

Patterns of hospital admission with epistaxis for 26,725 patients over an 18-year period in Wales, UK

Science.gov (United States)

Fishpool, SJC; Tomkinson, A

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION Epistaxis is the one of the most common otorhinolaryngology emergencies. This study examined the age and sex distribution of all patients admitted with epistaxis to National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in Wales, UK, over a period of 18 years and 9 months. METHODS The Patient Episode Database for Wales was examined for all patient admissions with a diagnosis of epistaxis between April 1991 and December 2009. The age and sex of these patients was recorded and the proportion of the underlying population affected was calculated by comparing admission rates to the population data derived from the 1991 and 2001 national population censuses for Wales. RESULTS A total of 26,725 patients were admitted to NHS hospitals in Wales with epistaxis over the period studied. The proportion of the population admitted with epistaxis increased from the age of 40 onwards. For all ages except patients in the 10–14 years group, a higher proportion of the male population was admitted with epistaxis than the comparable female population. This discrepancy was most pronounced between the ages of 15 and 49 years, with the female-to-male ratio of hospital admissions with epistaxis being 0.55. These ages (15 and 49 years) approximate the average age of menarche and menopause respectively in the UK. CONCLUSIONS Women of menstrual age have fewer hospital admissions with epistaxis. This may be due to oestrogens providing protection to the nasal vasculature (as they do to other areas of the vascular tree). PMID:23131225

Mental health legislation and human rights in England, Wales and the Republic of Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Brendan D

2011-01-01

In 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) published its Resource Book on Mental Health, Human Rights and Legislation (Geneva: WHO) presenting a detailed statement of human rights issues which need to be addressed in national legislation relating to mental health. The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which revised mental health legislation in England, Wales (2007) and Ireland (2001) accords with these standards (excluding standards relating solely to children or mentally-ill offenders). Legislation in England and Wales meets 90 (54.2%) of the 166 WHO standards examined, while legislation in Ireland meets 80 standards (48.2%). Areas of high compliance include definitions of mental disorder, relatively robust procedures for involuntary admission and treatment (although provision of information remains suboptimal) and clarity regarding offences and penalties Areas of medium compliance relate to competence, capacity and consent (with a particular deficit in capacity legislation in Ireland), oversight and review (which exclude long-term voluntary patients and require more robust complaints procedures), and rules governing special treatments, seclusion and restraint. Areas of low compliance relate to promoting rights (impacting on other areas within legislation, such as information management), voluntary patients (especially non-protesting, incapacitated patients), protection of vulnerable groups and emergency treatment. The greatest single deficit in both jurisdictions relates to economic and social rights. There are four key areas in need of rectification and clarification in relation to mental health legislation in England, Wales and Ireland; these relate to (1) measures to protect and promote the rights of voluntary patients; (2) issues relating to competence, capacity and consent (especially in Ireland); (3) the role of "common law" in relation to mental health law (especially in England and Wales); and (4) the extent to which each jurisdiction

Body-size trends of the extinct giant shark Carcharocles megalodon: a deep-time perspective on marine apex predators.

Science.gov (United States)

Pimiento, Catalina; Balk, Meghan A

2015-06-01

The extinct shark Carcharocles megalodon is one of the largest marine apex predators ever to exist. Nonetheless, little is known about its body-size variations through time and space. Here, we studied the body-size trends of C. megalodon through its temporal and geographic range to better understand its ecology and evolution. Given that this species was the last of the megatooth lineage, a group of species that shows a purported size increase through time, we hypothesized that C. megalodon also displayed this trend, increasing in size over time and reaching its largest size prior to extinction. We found that C. megalodon body-size distribution was left-skewed (suggesting a long-term selective pressure favoring larger individuals), and presented significant geographic variation (possibly as a result of the heterogeneous ecological constraints of this cosmopolitan species) over geologic time. Finally, we found that stasis was the general mode of size evolution of C. megalodon (i.e., no net changes over time), contrasting with the trends of the megatooth lineage and our hypothesis. Given that C. megalodon is a relatively long-lived species with a widely distributed fossil record, we further used this study system to provide a deep-time perspective to the understanding of the body-size trends of marine apex predators. For instance, our results suggest that (1) a selective pressure in predatory sharks for consuming a broader range of prey may favor larger individuals and produce left-skewed distributions on a geologic time scale; (2) body-size variations in cosmopolitan apex marine predators may depend on their interactions with geographically discrete communities; and (3) the inherent characteristics of shark species can produce stable sizes over geologic time, regardless of the size trends of their lineages.

Psychiatric morbidity in prisoners with intellectual disabilities: analysis of prison survey data for England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Hassiotis, Angela; Gazizova, Dina; Akinlonu, Leah; Bebbington, Paul; Meltzer, Howard; Strydom, Andre

2011-08-01

A substantial number of prisoners have intellectual disabilities. We analysed data on a sample drawn from all prisons in England and Wales. Intellectual disability was defined as Quick Test scores equivalent to an IQ of ≤65. We found a significantly higher prevalence of probable psychosis, attempted suicide and cannabis use in prisoners with intellectual disabilities. Presence of intellectual disability was twice as likely to be associated with probable psychosis but the relationship was fully mediated by self-rated health status. It is important to identify this group as early as possible in order to provide timely interventions to cope in adverse environments and manage substance misuse.

Trend of electricity prices in privatised industry: UK compared to other european countries 1985-1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorenzoni, A.

1995-01-01

Great efforts are devoted nowadays in many countries to reform the electric power system in order to achieve higher efficiency. The model under consideration is, more or less overtly, the new Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) in England and Wales which first transformed the vertically integrated state monopoly and introduced as the same time competition in electricity generation and supply. This paper analyses the trend of the final prices in UK during the ESI structural transformation between 1985 and 1994, since the final price of electricity is acknowledge as a good indicator of the performance of an ESI, and highlights the impact of privatisation on the different classes of consumers. It is investigated the evolution of the ratio between regulated-prices and free-market prices to further understand who profited from the new structure of the industry; the study continues with a comparison among the prices in UK, Italy and France. The analysis applies first to the nominal prices, and secondly to the deflated prices, in order to compare different years at constant purchase power

Time trends in births and cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities.

Science.gov (United States)

Horner-Johnson, Willi; Biel, Frances M; Darney, Blair G; Caughey, Aaron B

2017-07-01

Although it is likely that childbearing among women with disabilities is increasing, no empirical data have been published on changes over time in the numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Further, while it is known that women with disabilities are at increased risk of cesarean delivery, temporal trends in cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities have not been examined. To assess time trends in births by any mode and in primary cesarean deliveries among women with physical, sensory, or intellectual/developmental disabilities. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked vital records and hospital discharge data from all deliveries in California, 2000-2010 (n = 4,605,061). We identified women with potential disabilities using ICD-9 codes. We used descriptive statistics and visualizations to examine time patterns. Logistic regression analyses assessed the association between disability and primary cesarean delivery, stratified by year. Among all women giving birth, the proportion with a disability increased from 0.27% in 2000 to 0.80% in 2010. Women with disabilities had significantly elevated odds of primary cesarean delivery in each year, but the magnitude of the odds ratio decreased over time from 2.60 (95% CI = 2.25 = 2.99) in 2000 to 1.66 (95% CI = 1.51-1.81) in 2010. Adequate clinician training is needed to address the perinatal care needs of the increasing numbers of women with disabilities giving birth. Continued efforts to understand cesarean delivery patterns and reasons for cesarean deliveries may help guide further reductions in proportions of cesarean deliveries among women with disabilities relative to women without disabilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series"

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Hundecha

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The question whether the magnitude and frequency of floods have changed due to climate change or other drivers of change is of high interest. The number of flood trend studies is rapidly rising. When changes are detected, many studies link the identified change to the underlying causes, i.e. they attribute the changes in flood behaviour to certain drivers of change. We propose a hypothesis testing framework for trend attribution which consists of essential ingredients for a sound attribution: evidence of consistency, evidence of inconsistency, and provision of confidence statement. Further, we evaluate the current state-of-the-art of flood trend attribution. We assess how selected recent studies approach the attribution problem, and to which extent their attribution statements seem defendable. In our opinion, the current state of flood trend attribution is poor. Attribution statements are mostly based on qualitative reasoning or even speculation. Typically, the focus of flood trend studies is the detection of change, i.e. the statistical analysis of time series, and attribution is regarded as an appendix: (1 flood time series are analysed by means of trend tests, (2 if a significant change is detected, a hypothesis on the cause of change is given, and (3 explanations or published studies are sought which support the hypothesis. We believe that we need a change in perspective and more scientific rigour: detection should be seen as an integral part of the more challenging attribution problem, and detection and attribution should be placed in a sound hypothesis testing framework.

The implementation of crisis resolution home treatment teams in wales: results of the national survey 2007-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Richard; Jordan, Sue

2010-02-18

In mental health nursing, Crisis Resolution and Home Treatment (CRHT) services are key components of the shift from in-patient to community care. CRHT has been developed mainly in urban settings, and deployment in more rural areas has not been examined. We aimed to evaluate CRHT services' progress towards policy targets. All 18 CRHT teams in Wales were surveyed. A service profile questionnaire was distributed to team leaders. Fourteen of 18 teams responded in full. All but one were led by nurses, who formed the main professional group. All teams reported providing an alternative to hospital admission and assisting early discharge. With one exception, teams were 'gatekeeping' hospital beds. There was some divergence in clients seen, perceived impact of the service, operational hours, distances travelled, team structure, input of consultant psychiatrists and caseloads. We found some differences between the 8 urban teams and the 6 teams serving rural or mixed areas: rural teams travelled more, had fewer inpatient beds, and less medical input (0.067 compared to 0.688 whole time equivalents).. Most respondents felt that resource constraints were limiting further developments. Teams met standards for CHRT services in Wales; however, these are less onerous than those in England, particularly in relation to operational hours and staffing complement. As services develop, it will be important to ensure that rural and mixed areas receive the same level of input as urban areas.

Morchella australiana sp. nov., an apparent Australian endemic from New South Wales and Victoria

Science.gov (United States)

An abundant fruiting of a black morel was encountered in temperate northwestern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, during a mycological survey in August 2010. The collection site was west of the Great Dividing Range in a young, dry sclerophyll woodland forest dominated by Eucalyptus and Callitris nor...

Options for the management of Chernobyl-restricted areas in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nisbet, Anne; Woodman, Rona

2000-01-01

Areas in England and Wales are still subject to restrictions on the movement, sale and slaughter of sheep because activity concentrations of 137 Cs in sheepmeat may exceed the 1000 Bq kg -1 limit imposed after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. The operation of various monitoring programmes has enabled lamb production to be sustained in restricted areas. Under present circumstances, it is predicted that some restrictions will remain until at least 2003. This paper describes an assessment of the practicability and cost-effectiveness of five alternative management options: utilisation of existing improved land for the purposes of clean feeding; improvement of unimproved upland grazing for the purposes of clean feeding; provision of housing and clean feed; administration of boli containing ammonium ferric hexacyanoferrate; and monitoring at the market place. The practicability of each option, which encompasses technical feasibility, capacity, cost, impact and acceptability, was assessed through a series of case studies carried out on farms in the restricted area of north Wales, and through consultation with a range of organisations with interests in farming and/or the environment. Recommendations are made for the future management of the restricted areas

District nursing renascent as Wales adopts safe staffing levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Labourne, Paul

2018-05-02

This article reflects on the history of the NHS in Wales and how this has led to its current structure. How this structure supports integrated working across primary, community and secondary care and how further integration with social care is moving forward and its direct effects on district nursing are explored. This article describes how district nursing is meeting these challenges. Support for district nurses as part of integrated multiprofessional teams is being developed to promote appropriately staffed teams centred on meeting the requirements of people within a designated area and ensuring that home is the best and first place of care.

William Wales and the 1769 transit of Venus: puzzle solving and the determination of the astronomical unit

Science.gov (United States)

Metz, Don

2009-05-01

According to Thomas Kuhn, a significant part of “normal science” is the fact gathering, empirical work which is intended to illustrate an existing paradigm. Some of this effort focuses on the determination of physical constants such as the astronomical unit (AU). For Kuhn, normal science is also what prepares students for membership in a particular scientific community and is embodied in some form in our science textbooks. However, neither Kuhn nor the textbook says much about the individuals who practice normal science, especially those who had been relegated to the “hack” duties of long and arduous measurement and calculation. In this paper, to provide a context for students of astronomy, I will outline the story of the determination of the AU and in particular the contribution of William Wales, an obscure British astronomer. Wales, toiling in the shadow of Halley (of Halley’s comet fame), Mason and Dixon (of Mason and Dixon line fame) and the infamous Captain Cook endured a brutal winter in northern Canada for a brief glimpse of the 1769 transit of Venus. In the end, Wales supplied one small piece of the puzzle in the determination of the AU and he exemplified the human spirit and persistence of a Kuhnian “puzzle solver”.

An Analysis of Misconceptions in Science Textbooks: Earth Science in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

King, Chris John Henry

2010-01-01

Surveys of the earth science content of all secondary (high school) science textbooks and related publications used in England and Wales have revealed high levels of error/misconception. The 29 science textbooks or textbook series surveyed (51 texts in all) showed poor coverage of National Curriculum earth science and contained a mean level of one…

Deemed consent: assessing the new opt-out approach to organ procurement in Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Albertsen, Andreas

2018-05-01

In December 2015, Wales became the first country in the UK to move away from an opt-in system in organ procurement. The new legislation introduces the concept of deemed consent whereby a person who neither opt in nor opt out is deemed to have consented to donation. The data released by the National Health Service (NHS) in July 2017 provide an excellent opportunity to assess this legislation in light of concerns that it would decrease procurement rates for living and deceased donation, as well as sparking an increase in family refusals. None of these concerns have come to pass, with Wales experiencing more registered donors, fewer family refusals and more living donations. However, as the number of actual donors has dropped slightly from a high level, the situation must be monitored closely in the years to come. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Skin conditions are the commonest new reason people present to general practitioners in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Schofield, J K; Fleming, D; Grindlay, D; Williams, H

2011-11-01

Knowledge of the prevalence and incidence of skin conditions is a prerequisite for designing clinical services and providing appropriate training for primary health care professionals. In the U.K. the general practitioner and practice nurse are the first point of medical contact for persons with skin conditions. We aimed to obtain contemporary data in age-, gender- and diagnosis-specific detail on persons presenting to primary care with skin problems. Comparisons were made with similar data for other major disease groups and with similar data from other recent years. We used surveillance data collected in the Weekly Returns Service (WRS) of the Royal College of General Practitioners during 2006 and trend data for subsequent years. The WRS sentinel practices monitor all consultations by clinical diagnosis in a representative population of 950,000 in England and Wales. For conditions included in chapter XII of the International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision (ICD9), 15% of the population consulted; a further 9% presented with skin problems classified elsewhere in the ICD9, making a total of 24%. There was no evidence of increasing or decreasing trend since 2006. Skin infections were the commonest diagnostic group, while 20% of children skin disorders (including diagnoses outside chapter XII) exceeded incidences for all other major disease groupings. Compared with other major disease groups, skin conditions are the most frequent reason for consultation in general practice. This result emphasizes the need for appropriate education and training for all medical students and particularly for continuing education in dermatology for all primary health care professionals. © 2011 The Authors. BJD © 2011 British Association of Dermatologists.

Detecting trends in forest disturbance and recovery using yearly Landsat time series: 1. LandTrendr — Temporal segmentation algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Kennedy; Zhiqiang Yang; Warren B. Cohen

2010-01-01

We introduce and test LandTrendr (Landsat-based detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery), a new approach to extract spectral trajectories of land surface change from yearly Landsat time-series stacks (LTS). The method brings together two themes in time-series analysis of LTS: capture of short-duration events and smoothing of long-term trends. Our strategy is...

Qualitative scale for estimating sulphur dioxide air pollution in England and Wales using epiphytic lichens

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hawksworth, D L; Rose, F

1970-01-01

The sulphur dioxide in the air can be estimated qualitatively by studying the lichens growing on trees. A ten-point scale has been constructed and used in pilot surveys in England and Wales, Southeast England and the city of Leicester.

Fall prevalence, time trend and its related risk factors among elderly people in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Hong; Ouyang, Peng

2017-11-01

To study the fall prevalence, time trends and related risk factors among elderly people in the Chinese mainland from 2011 to 2013. Our data were from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and 2013. The population sample included people aged 60 years and over. Whether the person had experienced fall accident in the last two years was used to measure fall incidence. The time trend and age groups were investigated through the chi-square test. The related risk factors were examined based on the binary logistic regression model. In 2011, 19.64% (95% CI, 18.66%, 20.67%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents and in 2013, 19.28% (95% CI, 18.46%, 20.13%) of elderly people experienced fall incidents. However, no significant difference was seen in the fall prevalence between 2011 and 2013. The fall prevalence among elderly people aged 66-70 declined significantly while that among people aged over 80 showed an increasing time trend. The fall prevalence was affected significantly by factors including age (66-70), gender, marital status, self-rated health, quantity of chronic diseases, quantity of disability items, activities of daily living and physical functioning. It is revealed the fall prevalence showed no increment from 2011 to 2013 but at a high level. More efforts should be made to reduce the fall prevalence, and special attention should be paid to the elderly people aged over 80 and older. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poulomi Ganguli

2016-12-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Euling, Susan Y; Herman-Giddens, Marcia E; Lee, Peter A

2008-01-01

different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys...

A comparison of disease prevalence in general practice in the Netherlands and in England & Wales.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fleming, D.; Schellevis, F.; Linden, M. van der; Westert, G.

2006-01-01

General practice-based morbidity surveys have been conducted in the Netherlands and in England and Wales primarily to estimate disease prevalence and examine health inequalities. We have compared disease prevalence in general practice reported in the second Dutch Natinal Survey of General Practice

Complaints against health-care professionals providing police custodial and forensic medical/health-care services and sexual offence examiner services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Kieran M; Green, Peter G; Payne-James, J Jason

2017-01-01

Complaints management is an integral component of good clinical governance and an essential contributor to patient safety. Little is known about complaints against health-care professionals (HCPs) in police custodial settings and sexual assault referral centres. This study explored the frequency with which complaints are made against such HCPs working in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. It explored the nature of those complaints and the procedures by which they are investigated. Relevant information was requested from all police services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland; professional regulatory bodies; and the Independent Police Complaints Commission under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). Eighty-nine per cent of police services responded to the FOIA request. However, only a minority of these provided detailed information. Many police services cited the provision of health-care services by external providers as the reason for not holding information upon complaints. There was no evidence of any upward trend in the numbers of complaints over the study period. Delayed response to a request for attendance, incivility, medication issues and issues regarding the quality of reports and evidence were amongst the most common types of complaints described. A small number of responders provided copies of the disciplinary procedures used to manage complaints against HCPs. Significant heterogeneity exists in respect of complaints handling procedures across custodial and forensic medical/health-care services and sexual offence examiner services. An opportunity to identify learning for improvement is being missed as a result of the absence of standardised complaints handling procedures.

Role of nitrogen distribution in asymmetric stone-wales defects on electronic transport of graphene nanoribbons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeng, Hui; Zhao, Jun; Xu, Dahai [College of Physical Science and Technology, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, Hubei 434023 (China); Wei, Jianwei [College of Optoelectronic Information, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054 (China)

2012-01-15

The authors performed first principles calculation to investigate the influences of nitrogen dopant distribution in the asymmetric Stone-Wales (SW) defect on the electronic transport of zigzag-edged graphene nanoribbon (ZGNR). The stability of doped configurations are evaluated in terms of total energies. It is found that the dopant placed near the edge of the ribbon is the most energetically favorable site. Our results reveal that the doped nanostructures can be substantially modulated as a result of modifications on electronic bands induced by substitutional dopant. Moreover, the individual dopant gives rise to one or two complete electron backscattering centers associated with impurity states in the doped configurations, and the location is determined by the dopant site. Schematics of the atomic structure after asymmetric Stone-Wales defects introduced and different nitrogen substitutional sites. (Copyright copyright 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Open innovation: the activities and views of companies in Wales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rhisiart, Martin; Djebarni, Rami; Thomas, Andrew

favoured by companies are: 1) Financial support for collaboration, 2) Increase co-funding schemes for SMEs’ R&D, 3) Improve the institutional framework for collaboration, 4) Improve access to governmental support, 5) Foster networks and clusters The report sets out seven key recommendations for promoting......This is the Final Report of a study conducted on open innovation in companies in Wales. The programme of research included a review of global literature, interviews with 15 companies, a survey and a focus group.The study discusses Government support measures for open innovation.  Those most...

Twenty-five year socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among employed Finns.

Science.gov (United States)

Mäkinen, T; Borodulin, K; Laatikainen, T; Fogelholm, M; Prättälä, R

2009-04-01

The trend of socioeconomic differences in physical activity is largely unknown in Finland. In this study, we examined socioeconomic trends in leisure-time and commuting physical activity among Finns in 1978-2002. Nationwide data were derived from an annually repeated cross-sectional Finnish Adult Health Behavior Survey. People under the age of 25, students, the unemployed, and retirees were excluded from the analysis. The final data set included 25 513 women and 25 302 men. Socioeconomic variables included education, occupation, and household income. Odds ratios for being physically active and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. People with the lowest income were less leisure-time and commuting physically active. Among women, low occupational status was associated with high commuting physical activity whereas among men such an association was not found. No educational differences among men in leisure-time and commuting physical activity over time were found. Some indications were found that educational differences in leisure-time physical activity among women might have been reversed. Our data suggest that socioeconomic differences in leisure-time and commuting physical activity are quite small and have remained similar between 1978 and 2002.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Severe cervical spinal cord injuries related to rugby union and league football in New South Wales, 1984-1996.

Science.gov (United States)

Rotem, T R; Lawson, J S; Wilson, S F; Engel, S; Rutkowski, S B; Aisbett, C W

1998-04-20

To determine the frequency and circumstances of serious cervical cord injuries associated with rugby union and league football in New South Wales. Retrospective review of patients with rugby football-related cervical spinal cord injuries. The two central spinal units in NSW, from January 1984 to July 1996. Admission to spinal units; injury resulting in permanent tetraplegia. During the review period, 115 rugby football players (56 union and 59 league) were admitted to the spinal units because of cervical spinal cord injuries. 49 patients had resultant permanent neurological deficits (complete tetraplegia [quadriplegia])--26 associated with rugby union and 23 with rugby league. Two patients died of injury sequelae within two weeks of admission. There was no significant change in the rate of football-related admissions to spinal units for either code. There was a small decline in the number (from 15 in 1984 to 1987 to 7 in 1992 to 1996) and incidence (from 1.2 to 0.5 per 10,000 participants) of patients with tetraplegia associated with rugby union. When this decline was tested as a trend over the years, it was found to be statistically significant (P = 0.06). No significant trend was found in the tetraplegia data associated with rugby league. Cervical spinal cord injuries leading to complete tetraplegia were most commonly associated with scrum-like plays in union and with tackles in league. Serious cervical spinal injuries associated with both codes of rugby continue to occur in NSW. Rugby football in its various forms is still an inherently dangerous game.

Developing occupational chronologies for surface archaeological deposits from heat retainer hearths on Pine Point and Langwell stations, Far Western New South Wales, Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shiner, J.

2003-01-01

The archaeological record of arid Australia is dominated by deflated distributions of stone artefacts and heat retainer hearths covering many thousands of square metres. These deposits have often been over-looked by archaeologists in preference for stratified deposits, which are regarded as more appropriate for investigating temporal issues. In recent years this situation had slowly begun to change with the large-scale dating of heat retainer hearths from surface contexts. The work of of Fanning and Holdaway (2001) and Holdaway et al. (2002) in Far Western New South Wales has demonstrated that through the dating of large numbers of hearths it is possible to develop occupational chronologies for surface deposits. At a wider landscape scale these chronologies reflect the timing and tempo of the occupation of different places. A major component of my doctoral fieldwork on Pine Point and Langwell stations, 50 km south of Broken Hill in Western New South Wales, aimed to establish occupational chronologies from hearths for surface archaeological distributions. This paper reports on radiocarbon results from this investigation. (author). 6 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Murrumbidgee Catchment, New South Wales: Recharge Trading and Targeting Markets pilot studies

OpenAIRE

Markets for Ecosystem Services Project

2007-01-01

Metadata only record There are two 'markets for ecosystem services' pilot studies in the Murrumbidgee Catchment of New South Wales, Australia. The first, "Recharge Trading", aims to develop a market-based instrument to resolve the issue of salinization caused by excess groundwater recharge from irrigated agriculture. The second, "Targeting Markets", explores the factors and conditions that make market-based approaches more or less suitable for addressing a natural resource management issue...

Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

2012-04-01

In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

Time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area, 1976-1990

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oldehinkel, AJ

This paper concerns time trends in mental health care utilization in a Dutch area from 1976 to 1990. In general, there was an increase in the use of psychiatric services during the study period, both in terms of the number of new patients (per 1000 population) and in terms of the amount of care

Television Viewing at Home: Age Trends in Visual Attention and Time with TV.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Daniel R.; And Others

1986-01-01

Decribes age trends in television viewing time and visual attention of children and adults videotaped in their homes for 10-day periods. Shows that the increase in visual attention to television during the preschool years is consistent with the theory that television program comprehensibility is a major determinant of attention in young children.…

General outbreaks of vero cytotoxin producing Escherichia coli O157 in England and Wales from 1992 to 1994.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Wall, P G

1996-02-02

We have reviewed all general outbreaks of infection due to Vero cytotoxin producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) O157 reported in England and Wales from 1992 to 1994. One hundred and seventy-three people were affected in 18 outbreaks, compared with 76 people in seven outbreaks in the preceding three years (1989 to 1991). Outbreaks occurred throughout England and Wales. Thirty-eight per cent of cases were admitted to hospital, 21% developed haemolytic uraemic syndrome, and 3% died. VTEC O157 infection causes particular concern because of its serious complications--haemorrhagic colitis and haemolytic uraemic syndrome, its capacity to spread from person to person as well as by food and water, and its reservoir in dairy and beef cattle.

Time trends of physical activity in Brazil (2006-2009).

Science.gov (United States)

Hallal, Pedro C; Knuth, Alan G; Reis, Rodrigo S; Rombaldi, Airton J; Malta, Deborah C; Iser, Betine P M; Bernal, Regina T I; Florindo, Alex A

2011-09-01

To examine time trends in physical activity (PA) in Brazilian state capitals from 2006 to 2009. This analysis is based on data from the Telephone-based Surveillance of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases (VIGITEL) accounting for an annual sample of approximately 54,000 individuals. PA indicators were analyzed in free time (leisure), work, home and transportation, time spent in front of the television and inactivity considering all PA domains. Poisson regression models were used to measure the variation of indicators over time. We considered the changes corresponding to a regression coefficient different from zero as being statistically significant (p<0.05). The percentage of active commuters increased from 11.7 to 14.4% (p<0.001) whereas the proportion of physically inactive individuals in the four domains decreased from 11.7 to 8.7% (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the other indicators. Women were less active than men in all indicators, except for household chores. However, in this indicator the percentage of active women decreased from 71.4 to 67.1% (p<0.001). Between 2006 and 2009, PA levels in the Brazilian population were stable during free time and household chores, but increased in transportation, resulting in a decrease in the percentage of inactive individuals. The continued monitoring and strengthening of VIGITEL are public health priorities, and PA is a key part of it. In the long run, PA evolution may be re-evaluated.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Ethical analysis of the new proposed mental health legislation in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lepping Peter

2007-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract This paper ethically analyses arising out the proposed changes to the Mental Health Act for England and Wales. It looks in particular at thea shift in philosophy that the author claims has occurred with the proposals away from rights-focused principles to more utilitarian or outcome-focused principles. It gives examples of these changes and explores itstheir consequences.

Brief Report: Multilevel Analysis of School Smoking Policy and Pupil Smoking Behaviour in Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Wiium, Nora; Burgess, Stephen; Moore, Laurence

2011-01-01

A multilevel analysis of cross-sectional data from a survey involving 1941 pupils (in grades 10 and 11) and policy indicators developed from interviews with staff from 45 secondary schools in Wales examined the hypotheses that pupil smoking prevalence would be associated with: restrictive staff and pupil smoking policies; dissemination of school…

Evidence for deep sub-surface flow routing in forested upland Wales: implications for contaminant transport and stream flow generation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Haria

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Upland streamflow generation has traditionally been modelled as a simple rainfall-runoff mechanism. However, recent hydrochemical studies conducted in upland Wales have highlighted the potentially important role of bedrock groundwater in streamflow generation processes. To investigate these processes, a detailed and novel field study was established in the riparian zone and lower hillslopes of the Hafren catchment at Plynlimon, mid-Wales. Results from this study showed groundwater near the river behaving in a complex and most likely confined manner within depth-specific horizons. Rapid responses to rainfall in all boreholes at the study site indicated rapid recharge pathways further upslope. The different flow pathways and travel times influenced the chemical character of groundwaters with depth. Groundwaters were shown to discharge into the stream from the fractured bedrock. A lateral rapid flow horizon was also identified as a fast flow pathway immediately below the soils. This highlighted a mechanism whereby rising groundwater may pick up chemical constituents from the lower soils and transfer them quickly to the stream channel. Restrictions in this horizon resulted in groundwater upwelling into the soils at some locations indicating soil water to be sourced from both rising groundwater and rainfall. The role of bedrock groundwater in upland streamflow generation is far more complicated than previously considered, particularly with respect to residence times and flow pathways. Hence, water quality models in upland catchments that do not take account of the bedrock geology and the groundwater interactions therein will be seriously flawed. Keywords: bedrock, groundwater, Hafren, hillslope hydrology, Plynlimon, recharge, soil water, streamflow generation

Time trends of perfluorinated alkyl acids in serum from Danish pregnant women 2008-2013

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bjerregaard-Olesen, Christian; Bach, Cathrine C; Long, Manhai

2016-01-01

for sixteen PFAAs using solid phase extraction and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We investigated the time trends for seven PFAAs, which were detected in more than 50% of the samples: perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), perfluoroheptane sulfonate (PFHpS), perfluorooctane sulfonate...

The impact of Australian legislative changes on synthetic cannabinoid exposures reported to the New South Wales Poisons Information Centre.

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Cairns, Rose; Brown, Jared A; Gunja, Naren; Buckley, Nicholas A

2017-05-01

The emergence of new psychoactive substances (NPS), including synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists (SCRAs) poses novel challenges for drug regulation and public health. Misconceptions of safety and legality, coupled with the fact that NPS are undetectable on routine drugs screens contributes to their popularity. Concerns over the unpredictable toxicity and abuse potential of NPS has led to a variety of legislative responses worldwide. We wish to describe Australian trends in SCRA use, examining the effects of legislative changes on calls to Australia's largest poisons centre. A retrospective review of calls to the New South Wales Poisons Information Centre (NSWPIC). Cases occurring between 1 January 2010 and 30 June 2015 with documented use of SCRAs were included. There were 146 exposures to SCRAs recorded in the NSWPIC database. Federal bans of specific SCRA compounds in 2011/2012 had little impact on call volumes. State-based legislation introduced in 2013 banning specific brand names of SCRA products was followed by a dramatic, sustained decrease in exposures. The most common symptoms reported with SCRA use were tachycardia, vomiting, drowsiness, anxiety/panic, decreased level of consciousness, chest pain, agitation, hallucinations, confusion, seizures and hypertension. Banning of specific brand names of SCRA (timed with raids and social media campaigns) appears effective at reducing SCRA exposures. We postulate that this raised awareness within the community of the illegality of these substances while also reducing supply through bricks-and-mortar shops. These results could help inform future legislative responses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water Scarcity in England and Wales as a Failure of (metaGovernance

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Gareth Walker

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The water crisis is often said to be a crisis of governance failure rather than of availability per se; yet the sources of this failure are poorly understood. This paper examines contemporary water scarcity in England and Wales as a failure of ecological modernity, in which technical and institutional innovation is promoted as a means of increasing economic efficiency in the allocation and use of water resources. The role of the state in fostering this innovation is explored through exploring a shift from 'government' to 'governance'. The paper employs Jessopʼs theory of meta-governance to examine governance failure. Meta-governance represents the capacity of the state to flank or support the emergence of specific forms of governance through mobilising material or symbolic resources. Three sources of governance failure are explored: (1 the nature of capitalist exchange and its resulting production of nature, (2 the political dimensions implicit in meta-governance, and (3 the nature of governance as a task of self-organisation. The model is then applied to the rise of water scarcity in England and Wales from the 1970s to the present day. The utility of the model in analysing governance failure is discussed.

Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

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M. Mudelsee

2012-10-01

Full Text Available A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka. We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1 block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation of the δ¹⁸O residuals and (2 timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam. The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka, with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ¹⁸O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, the Little Ice Age (LIA and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP.

Schisms in the church: National Health Service systems and institutional divergence in England and Wales.

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Hughes, David; Vincent-Jones, Peter

2008-12-01

Since devolution, the four countries of the United Kingdom have pursued strikingly different National Health Service (NHS) reforms. While England created a supply-side market more radical than the previous internal market system, Wales moved to a softer version of the purchaser/provider split emphasizing localism. This article deploys institutional theory to analyze the forces shaping change, and describes the hybrid forms of economic organization emerging, including the economic regulation model implemented in England. The schism that has resulted in separate NHS subsystems warrants a different analysis from the more familiar phenomenon of infield divergence. We argue that schism was triggered by political-regulatory influences rather than economic or other social institutional forces, and predict that other decentralized public health care systems may follow a similar path. While political-regulatory, normative, and cognitive institutional influences push in the same direction in Wales, the misalignment of political-regulatory and normative elements in England looks set to result in a period of organizational turbulence.

Culture care of Iranian immigrants in New South Wales, Australia: sharing transcultural nursing knowledge.

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Omeri, A

1997-01-01

Discovery and analysis of care meanings, expressions, and practices of Iranian Immigrants in New South Wales, Australia was the focus of this ethnonursing qualitative research. The purpose of the study was to systematically discover, describe and analyse the values, beliefs, and practices of Iranian immigrants in New South Wales, Australia. The aim of the investigation was to discover transcultural nursing knowledge to guide nurses and health professionals to provide culturally congruent nursing and health care to Iranians. Leininger's theory of Culture Care Diversity and Universality (Leininger, 1991) was used as the conceptual framework for the study. It was predicted that care meanings and expressions of Iranian immigrants would be influenced by their worldview, social structure features, language, and cultural values rooted in their long ethnohistorical past and reflected in their lifeways in Australia. Using the ethnonursing qualitative research method, key and general informants were purposefully selected among Iranian immigrants residing in New South Wales. Three care themes supported by a number of universal and some diverse patterns were identified for Iranian immigrants. The three themes were: (1) Care meant family and kinship ties (hambastegie) as expressed in daily lifeways and interactions with family, friends, and community; (2) Care as expressed in carrying out traditional urban gender roles (role-zan-o-mard) (Azadie zan) as well as in fulfilling emerging new role responsibilities related to equality for female Iranian immigrants; and (3) Care as preservation of Iranian identity (inhamoni, hamonandi) as expressed in traditional cultural events and health care practices. Leininger's (1991) three modes of actions and decisions were used to develop appropriate and culturally meaningful nursing care actions and decisions which were in harmony with the cultural beliefs of Iranian immigrants.

Lost in translation: reviewing the role of the discharge liaison nurse in Wales.

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Chandler, Lynda; Wyatt, Matt; Roberts, Iain

2010-02-01

In Wales, the National Leadership and Innovation Agency in Healthcare (NLIAH) Change Agent Team (CAT) has found that its service improvement methodology of Communities of Practice (CoP), where motivated frontline staff in health and social care come together to share issues and develop solutions to mutual problems, is a highly effective and informative tool. Health and social care organizations in Wales are in the process of working to develop processes and solutions to remedy the challenges they have over patients with long lengths of stay. This article shows how by speaking to the frontline staff, whose role it is to help people whose discharge is likely to be complex or problematic, they often have most insight into the solutions required to alleviate the situation. The learning in this article is that there is no one solution to improve the discharge process; however there are a number of small changes and improvements required, which if done consistently can have a significant impact. The findings here have been shared with Welsh government policy leads and health and social care executive teams to inform their planning and actions on how to resolve the challenge of reducing length of stay.

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

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Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Leprosy in England and Wales 1953-2012: surveillance and challenges in low incidence countries.

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Fulton, Nicholas; Anderson, Laura F; Watson, John M; Abubakar, Ibrahim

2016-05-03

To review all notified cases of leprosy in England and Wales between 1953 and 2012. National surveillance study of all reported cases. England and Wales. Number and characteristics of reported cases. During this period, a total of 1449 leprosy cases were notified. The incidence fell from 356 new cases notified between 1953 and 1962 to 139 new cases between 2003 and 2012. Where data were available, leprosy was more common in men, 15-45 year olds and those from the Indian subcontinent. There was considerable undernotification in 2001-2012. The high level of under-reporting indicates a need for improved surveillance in the UK. Public Health England, in collaboration with the UK Panel of Leprosy opinion, has revised the UK Memorandum on Leprosy in order to provide updated guidance on diagnostic procedures, treatment, case management, contact tracing and notification. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Quantifying the Physical Composition of Urban Morphology throughout Wales Based on the Time Series (1989–2011 Analysis of Landsat TM/ETM+ Images and Supporting GIS Data

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Douglas Scott

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Knowledge of impervious surface areas (ISA and on their changes in magnitude, location, geometry and morphology over time is significant for a range of practical applications and research alike from local to global scales. Despite this, use of Earth Observation (EO technology in mapping ISAs within some European Union (EU countries, such as the United Kingdom (UK, is to some extent scarce. In the present study, a combination of methods is proposed for mapping ISA based on freely distributed EO imagery from Landsat TM/ETM+ sensors. The proposed technique combines a traditional classifier and a linear spectral mixture analysis (LSMA with a series of Landsat TM/ETM+ images to extract ISA. Selected sites located in Wales, UK, are used for demonstrating the capability of the proposed method. The Welsh study areas provided a unique setting in detecting largely dispersed urban morphology within an urban-rural frontier context. In addition, an innovative method for detecting clouds and cloud shadow layers for the full area estimation of ISA is also presented herein. The removal and replacement of clouds and cloud shadows, with underlying materials is further explained. Aerial photography with a spatial resolution of 0.4 m, acquired over the summer period in 2005 was used for validation purposes. Validation of the derived products indicated an overall ISA detection accuracy in the order of ~97%. The latter was considered as very satisfactory and at least comparative, if not somehow better, to existing ISA products provided on a national level. The hybrid method for ISA extraction proposed here is important on a local scale in terms of moving forward into a biennial program for the Welsh Government. It offers a much less subjectively static and more objectively dynamic estimation of ISA cover in comparison to existing operational products already available, improving the current estimations of international urbanization and soil sealing. Findings of our

Depth-time interpolation of feature trends extracted from mobile microelectrode data with kernel functions.

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Wong, Stephen; Hargreaves, Eric L; Baltuch, Gordon H; Jaggi, Jurg L; Danish, Shabbar F

2012-01-01

Microelectrode recording (MER) is necessary for precision localization of target structures such as the subthalamic nucleus during deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery. Attempts to automate this process have produced quantitative temporal trends (feature activity vs. time) extracted from mobile MER data. Our goal was to evaluate computational methods of generating spatial profiles (feature activity vs. depth) from temporal trends that would decouple automated MER localization from the clinical procedure and enhance functional localization in DBS surgery. We evaluated two methods of interpolation (standard vs. kernel) that generated spatial profiles from temporal trends. We compared interpolated spatial profiles to true spatial profiles that were calculated with depth windows, using correlation coefficient analysis. Excellent approximation of true spatial profiles is achieved by interpolation. Kernel-interpolated spatial profiles produced superior correlation coefficient values at optimal kernel widths (r = 0.932-0.940) compared to standard interpolation (r = 0.891). The choice of kernel function and kernel width resulted in trade-offs in smoothing and resolution. Interpolation of feature activity to create spatial profiles from temporal trends is accurate and can standardize and facilitate MER functional localization of subcortical structures. The methods are computationally efficient, enhancing localization without imposing additional constraints on the MER clinical procedure during DBS surgery. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Psychosocial stress and strategies for managing adversity: measuring population resilience in New South Wales, Australia

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Jacobs Jennifer

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Populations around the world are facing an increasing number of adversities such as the global financial crisis, terrorism, conflict, and climate change. The aim of this paper was to investigate self-reported strategies and sources of support used to get through "tough times" in an Australian context and to identify patterns of response in the general population and differences in potentially vulnerable subgroups. Methods Data were collected through a cross-sectional survey of the New South Wales population in Australia. The final sample consisted of 3,995 New South Wales residents aged 16 years and above who responded to the question: "What are the things that get you through tough times?" Results Respondents provided brief comments that were coded into 14 main subject-area categories. The most frequently reported responses were family and self (52%; friends and neighbors (21%; use of positive emotional and philosophical strategies (17%, such as sense of humor, determination, and the belief that things would get better; and religious beliefs (11%. The responses of four population subgroups were compared, based on gender, household income, level of psychological distress, and whether a language other than English was spoken at home. Women reported greater use of friends and neighbors and religious or spiritual beliefs for support, whereas men reported greater use of drinking/smoking and financial supports. Those with lower incomes reported greater reliance on positive emotional and philosophical strategies and on religious or spiritual beliefs. Those with high levels of psychological distress reported greater use of leisure interests and hobbies, drinking/smoking, and less use of positive lifestyle strategies, such as adequate sleep, relaxation, or work/life balance. Those who spoke a language other than English at home were less likely to report relying on self or others (family/friends or positive emotional and

Psychosocial stress and strategies for managing adversity: measuring population resilience in New South Wales, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Melanie; Barr, Margo; Stevens, Garry; Bryson-Taylor, Donald; Agho, Kingsley; Jacobs, Jennifer; Raphael, Beverley

2010-10-14

Populations around the world are facing an increasing number of adversities such as the global financial crisis, terrorism, conflict, and climate change. The aim of this paper was to investigate self-reported strategies and sources of support used to get through "tough times" in an Australian context and to identify patterns of response in the general population and differences in potentially vulnerable subgroups. Data were collected through a cross-sectional survey of the New South Wales population in Australia. The final sample consisted of 3,995 New South Wales residents aged 16 years and above who responded to the question: "What are the things that get you through tough times?" Respondents provided brief comments that were coded into 14 main subject-area categories. The most frequently reported responses were family and self (52%); friends and neighbors (21%); use of positive emotional and philosophical strategies (17%), such as sense of humor, determination, and the belief that things would get better; and religious beliefs (11%). The responses of four population subgroups were compared, based on gender, household income, level of psychological distress, and whether a language other than English was spoken at home. Women reported greater use of friends and neighbors and religious or spiritual beliefs for support, whereas men reported greater use of drinking/smoking and financial supports. Those with lower incomes reported greater reliance on positive emotional and philosophical strategies and on religious or spiritual beliefs. Those with high levels of psychological distress reported greater use of leisure interests and hobbies, drinking/smoking, and less use of positive lifestyle strategies, such as adequate sleep, relaxation, or work/life balance. Those who spoke a language other than English at home were less likely to report relying on self or others (family/friends) or positive emotional and philosophical strategies to get through tough times

Barriers to delivering extracurricular school sport and physical activity in Wales: a qualitative study of 5x60 officers' views and perspectives.

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Rainer, Paul; Griffiths, Robert; Cropley, Brendan; Jarvis, Stuart

2015-02-01

In light of recent reports, schools must be realistic in that physical activity recommendations cannot be met through curriculum PE alone. However, extracurricular PE and school sport has the potential to further promote physical activity in adolescents. Consequently, the Welsh Government, UK, proposed through its Climbing Higher strategy (2006) for secondary school children to achieve 60 minutes of physical activity a day. This was implemented through Sport Wales and the 5×60 scheme. This study aimed to examine the experiences of the 5×60 officers responsible for implementing the program, with a view to gain an understanding of the barriers associated with increasing participation in physical activity. Officers from 14 unitary authorities across Wales were interviewed using a socioecological approach that considered the impact of: personal behaviors, physical environment, social environment, and policy. Participants reported a number of challenges affecting the delivery of the program, including: availability of facilities, lack of support from senior management, time, and conflict with PE staff. This study suggests that current methods used by personnel to facilitate extracurricular school sport may not be the most appropriate, and future direction should consider the place and contribution of physical activity to young people's lives.

To relieve the sufferings of humanity, irrespective of party, politics or creed?: conflict, consensus and voluntary hospital provision in Edwardian South Wales.

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Thompson, Steven

2003-08-01

This article examines the provision of voluntary hospital facilities for injured workers in the mining valleys of Edwardian South Wales. It considers the co-operation and conflict that characterized efforts to establish hospitals, and examines the attitudes and activities of workers, employers, and other interested groups. Despite certain instances of disagreement and conflict, this article demonstrates the significant levels of co-operation and consensus that characterized the efforts of employers and workers to provide communities with hospital facilities. This co-operation was perhaps surprising considering the bitter industrial conflict and social unrest of that period. The article uses this material to question assertions that hospitals reflect the social and political milieus of the communities in which they were situated and argues that the social relations produced by hospital provision sometimes coincided with wider social and industrial relations, but at other times differed from them or transcended them. Furthermore, the article demonstrates that the co-operation between employers and workers in the provision of hospitals in Edwardian South Wales did not stabilize social and industrial relations in the way that historians of associational voluntarism in other contexts have found.

Automated data extraction from general practice records in an Australian setting: trends in influenza-like illness in sentinel general practices and emergency departments.

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Liljeqvist, Gösta T H; Staff, Michael; Puech, Michele; Blom, Hans; Torvaldsen, Siranda

2011-06-06

Influenza intelligence in New South Wales (NSW), Australia is derived mainly from emergency department (ED) presentations and hospital and intensive care admissions, which represent only a portion of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the population. A substantial amount of the remaining data lies hidden in general practice (GP) records. Previous attempts in Australia to gather ILI data from GPs have given them extra work. We explored the possibility of applying automated data extraction from GP records in sentinel surveillance in an Australian setting.The two research questions asked in designing the study were: Can syndromic ILI data be extracted automatically from routine GP data? How do ILI trends in sentinel general practice compare with ILI trends in EDs? We adapted a software program already capable of automated data extraction to identify records of patients with ILI in routine electronic GP records in two of the most commonly used commercial programs. This tool was applied in sentinel sites to gather retrospective data for May-October 2007-2009 and in real-time for the same interval in 2010. The data were compared with that provided by the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System (PHREDSS) and with ED data for the same periods. The GP surveillance tool identified seasonal trends in ILI both retrospectively and in near real-time. The curve of seasonal ILI was more responsive and less volatile than that of PHREDSS on a local area level. The number of weekly ILI presentations ranged from 8 to 128 at GP sites and from 0 to 18 in EDs in non-pandemic years. Automated data extraction from routine GP records offers a means to gather data without introducing any additional work for the practitioner. Adding this method to current surveillance programs will enhance their ability to monitor ILI and to detect early warning signals of new ILI events.

Trends in Leisure Time Physical Activity among Young People in Finland, 1977-2007

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Laakso, Lauri; Telama, Risto; Nupponen, Heimo; Rimpela, Arja; Pere, Lasse

2008-01-01

The decline in physical activity among young people has been discussed in the media during recent decades, although the scientific evidence for this has been scarce. The aim of this study was to investigate trends over 30 years in leisure time physical activity of Finnish boys and girls aged 12, 14, 16 and 18 years from 1977 to 2007. The data were…

Experiences of Autism Spectrum Disorder and Policing in England and Wales: Surveying Police and the Autism Community.

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Crane, Laura; Maras, Katie L; Hawken, Tamsyn; Mulcahy, Sue; Memon, Amina

2016-06-01

An online survey gathered the experiences and views of 394 police officers (from England and Wales) regarding autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Just 42 % of officers were satisfied with how they had worked with individuals with ASD and reasons for this varied. Although officers acknowledged the need for adjustments, organisational/time constraints were cited as barriers. Whilst 37 % of officers had received training on ASD, a need for training tailored to policing roles (e.g., frontline officers, detectives) was identified. Police responses are discussed with respect to the experiences of the ASD community (31 adults with ASD, 49 parents), who were largely dissatisfied with their experience of the police and echoed the need for police training on ASD.

Sedentary behaviour, physical activity and weight problems in adolescents in Wales.

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Elgar, F J; Roberts, C; Moore, L; Tudor-Smith, C

2005-06-01

We studied the prevalence and stability of overweight and obesity in a cohort of adolescents, and the effects of sedentary behaviour and physical activity on changes in body mass. The study also examined the extent to which physical activity mediated the relationship between sedentary behaviour and body mass. Four-year cohort study. The study was part of the Health Behaviour of School-aged Children Study that took place in Wales between 1994 and 1998. Body height and weight measurements and self-report data on sedentary behaviour, physical activity and psychosocial adjustment were collected from 355 adolescents on two occasions 4 years apart. The mean age of the sample at baseline was 12.30 (SD=6.30) years. Weight conditions (underweight, overweight and obesity) and body mass were moderately stable over the interval. Regression analyses showed that sedentary behaviour at Time 1 predicted body mass at Time 2, while physical activity predicted a change in body mass over time. The influence of sedentary behaviour on body mass was not found to be mediated by physical activity. However, weight problems in Year 7 coincided with getting bullied, bullying others, and feeling left out of things. Obesity was also related to snacking and skipping breakfast. Sedentary behaviour and physical activity in early adolescence both influenced body mass in late adolescence. Results indicated that promoting healthy diets and physical activities may have long-term health benefits for young people.

Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

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Akter, Rokeya; Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should

Passages to Literature: Essays on Teaching in Australia, Canada, England, the United States, and Wales.

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Milner, Joseph O'Beirne, Ed.; Milner, Lucy Floyd Morcock, Ed.

Representing Australia, Canada, England, the United States, and Wales, this collection of essays focuses on ways in which teachers can adapt classroom activities and modify writing assignments to encourage personal response and exploration of texts. Essays, their authors, and nationalities are as follows: (1) "The River and Its Banks:…

Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

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Maryam Barzin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

Measles outbreak linked to European B3 outbreaks, Wales, United Kingdom, 2017.

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Currie, Jonny; Davies, Llion; McCarthy, Joanne; Perry, Malorie; Moore, Catherine; Cottrell, Simon; Bowley, Mererid; Williams, Chris; Shankar, Ananda Giri; Stiff, Rhianwen

2017-10-01

The United Kingdom achieved interrupted endemic measles transmission for 36 months in 2016. Despite this, ongoing challenges from sporadic measles cases typically imported from abroad remain. We summarise a B3 measles genotype outbreak in south-east Wales occurring between May and September 2017, linked with other European outbreaks, and lessons learnt. Seventeen confirmed cases and one probable case occurred principally in education and healthcare-settings. Six confirmed cases attended healthcare settings when infectious, without being isolated.

The Radical Reform of Administrative Policies in New South Wales School Education: Practical and Theoretical Implications.

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Macpherson, R. J. S.

The government of New South Wales (Australia) is attempting to enhance the quality of public education by radically altering management structures and practices. Despite some popular objections, political intervention was mandated and warranted due to excessive centralization in administrative policy making, curriculum development, and resource…

Wairarapa Valley groundwater : residence time, flow pattern, and hydrochemistry trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenstern, U.

2005-01-01

The Wairarapa groundwater system has a complicated hydrogeological setting as it evolved from sea level changes, tectonic activity, and geomorphic process. Due to increasing groundwater demand a better understanding of the groundwater resources is required to help achieve effective management and sustainable use. In addition to previous 'classical' hydrogeology studies, this report represents the first stage of a comprehensive approach using age dating and chemistry time trends for understanding the Wairarapa groundwater system. The methodology of groundwater age dating and mixing models is described in Appendix 1. Historic tritium data were evaluated, and combined with new tritium and CFC/SF 6 data to allow for robust age dating. (author). 14 refs., 30 figs

Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

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Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

2015-09-30

Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

Time Series Analysis of Onchocerciasis Data from Mexico: A Trend towards Elimination

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Rodríguez, Miguel A.; Adeleke, Monsuru A.; Orozco-Algarra, María E.; Arrendondo-Jiménez, Juan I.; Guo, Xianwu

2013-01-01

Background In Latin America, there are 13 geographically isolated endemic foci distributed among Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil and Ecuador. The communities of the three endemic foci found within Mexico have been receiving ivermectin treatment since 1989. In this study, we predicted the trend of occurrence of cases in Mexico by applying time series analysis to monthly onchocerciasis data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health between 1988 and 2011 using the software R. Results A total of 15,584 cases were reported in Mexico from 1988 to 2011. The data of onchocerciasis cases are mainly from the main endemic foci of Chiapas and Oaxaca. The last case in Oaxaca was reported in 1998, but new cases were reported in the Chiapas foci up to 2011. Time series analysis performed for the foci in Mexico showed a decreasing trend of the disease over time. The best-fitted models with the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, which were used to predict the tendency of onchocerciasis cases for two years ahead. According to the ARIMA models predictions, the cases in very low number (below 1) are expected for the disease between 2012 and 2013 in Chiapas, the last endemic region in Mexico. Conclusion The endemic regions of Mexico evolved from high onchocerciasis-endemic states to the interruption of transmission due to the strategies followed by the MSH, based on treatment with ivermectin. The extremely low level of expected cases as predicted by ARIMA models for the next two years suggest that the onchocerciasis is being eliminated in Mexico. To our knowledge, it is the first study utilizing time series for predicting case dynamics of onchocerciasis, which could be used as a benchmark during monitoring and post-treatment surveillance. PMID:23459370

Rum Corps to IXL: Services to Pastoralists and Farmers in New South Wales

OpenAIRE

Davidson, Bruce Robinson

1990-01-01

By 1850, New South Wales (NSW) appeared to have entered a period of long term economic stability which was almost entirely dependent on the production of fine wool. The prospects of such a future vanished with the discovery of large quantities of alluvial gold in 1851. The population of the colony almost doubled, increasing from 179,000 in 1851 to 351,000 in 1861 (Vamplew 1987, p. 26).

AN ANALYSIS OF MISCONCEPTIONS IN SCIENCE TEXTBOOKS: EARTH SCIENCE IN ENGLAND AND WALES

OpenAIRE

King , Chris John Henry

2010-01-01

Abstract Surveys of the earth science content of all secondary (high school) science textbooks and related publications used in England and Wales have revealed high levels of error/ misconception. The 29 science textbooks or textbook series surveyed (51 texts in all) showed poor coverage of National Curriculum earth science and contained a mean level of one earth science error/ misconception per page. Science syllabuses and examinations surveyed also showed errors/ misconceptions. ...

Mortality among a Cohort of Persons with an Intellectual Disability in New South Wales, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Florio, Tony; Trollor, Julian

2015-01-01

Objectives: The main objective of the study was to compare mortality for people with an intellectual disability (ID) to the general population in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. A second objective was to provide mortality data for people with an intellectual disability from NSW in a standardized format, which allows for international comparisons…

Radioactive Substances Act 1960. Keeping and use of radioactive materials; list of registrations in England and Wales issued under the Radioactive Substances Act 1960 for the keeping and use of radioactive materials and mobile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-05-01

Through the Radioactive Substances Act 1960 (RSA 60), Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution (Radioactive Substances) (HMIP) exercises control, on behalf of the Secretary of State for the Environment, over the keeping and use of radioactive material and the accumulation and disposal of radioactive waste in England. HMIP also provides technical advice to the Secretary of State for Wales in connection with the enforcement of RSA 60 in Wales. Registrations under RSA 60 for the keeping and use of radioactive materials in England and Wales are issued respectively by the Secretaries of State for the Environment and Wales, following careful assessment of the radiological consequences for members of the public. Registrations impose strict limits and conditions and premises and apparatus are subject to scrutiny by HMIP Inspectors to ensure compliance. A list contains names and addresses of those registered in England and Wales for the keeping and use of radioactive materials and mobile apparatus

Mapping and Evaluation of NDVI Trends from Synthetic Time Series Obtained by Blending Landsat and MODIS Data around a Coalfield on the Loess Plateau

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kun Wang

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The increasingly intensive and extensive coal mining activities on the Loess Plateau pose a threat to the fragile local ecosystems. Quantifying the effects of coal mining activities on environmental conditions is of great interest for restoring and managing the local ecosystems and resources. This paper generates dense NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series between 2000 and 2011 at a spatial resolution of 30 m by blending Landsat and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM and further evaluates its capability for mapping vegetation trends around a typical coalfield on the Loss Plateau. Synthetic NDVI images were generated using (1 STARFM-generated NIR (near infrared and red band reflectance data (scheme 1 and (2 Landsat and MODIS NDVI images directly as inputs for STARFM (scheme 2. By comparing the synthetic NDVI images with the corresponding Landsat NDVI, we found that scheme 2 consistently generated better results (0.70 < R2 < 0.76 than scheme 1 (0.56 < R2 < 0.70 in this study area. Trend analysis was then performed with the synthetic dense NDVI time series and the annual maximum NDVI (NDVImax time series. The accuracy of these trends was evaluated by comparing to those from the corresponding MODIS time series, and it was concluded that both the trends from synthetic/MODIS NDVI dense time series and synthetic/MODIS NDVImax time series (2000–2011 were highly consistent. Compared to trends from MODIS time series, trends from synthetic time series are better able to capture fine scale vegetation changes. STARFM-generated synthetic NDVI time series could be used to quantify the effects of mining activities on vegetation, but the test areas should be selected with caution, as the trends derived from synthetic and MODIS time series may be significantly different in some areas.

Masculinity and domesticity in 1930s South Wales: did unemployment change the domestic division of labour?

Science.gov (United States)

Penlington, Neil

2010-01-01

This article examines masculinity in an area suffering from sustained high unemployment and unremitting hardship during the 1930s: the South Wales coalfield had some of the highest rates of male unemployment and the lowest participation rates of married women in paid employment in Britain. Particular attention is drawn to power relations between husband and wife by looking at the domestic division of labour and whether male unemployment affected the split in domestic responsibilities. Personal testimonies are used to assess how men filled their time whilst unemployed and the meanings they attached to their activities and relationships. It will be shown that some unemployed men engaged more in the home and that many men were able to maintain existing power relations with their wives by finding or creating alternative manual work and maintaining an elastic relationship with the home by continuing to spend the majority of their time in the company of other men.

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

Radiation and cancer in Wales. The biological consequences of low-level radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busby, C.C.

1994-01-01

It has become increasingly clear in the last ten years that, in the UK, the scientific measurement and appraisal of human health risks, including pollution, are in the hands of the Government and establishment controlled organisations. In the area of drug-related illness, drug side-effects and medicine safety, profits are routinely put before health. The Chernobyl catastrophe, the greatest single pollution event ever, saw the Government responding with warnings which were too little and too late. Water and milk had been drunk, contaminated animals had been sold and eaten. Recently we have come within a hair's breadth of an ozone hole over Europe at a time when a General Election was in progress. Nothing was said: what information that was available came from the United Nations, from NASA, anywhere but from the UK Government. A recently leaked CEGB document shows levels of radioisotopic pollution in the Trawsfynydd lake to be different (and much higher) than those admitted to by Nuclear Electric pic and published by the Welsh Office. Details of the enormous release of radiation to the environment following the Windscale reactor fire in 1957 have only recently become available. At the time people could have been warned but were not. It is no longer possible to believe what we are told. Or what we are not told. Subtle and serious hazards to human health may exist and be unknown to us. To those who read this and perhaps follow up some of the references, it may seem a difficult task to choose between the few heretical voices and the massive nuclear industry megaphone. I have often been asked a variation of the following question: 'If scientists cannot agree amongst themselves on the effects of radiation, how are mere laymen expected to choose in this complicated and difficult area?' And so radiobiology has become like a religion. You believe or you do not. Radiation causes cancer at low dose or it does not. This is not a necessary state of affairs. Enough data is now

Radiation and cancer in Wales. The biological consequences of low-level radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Busby, C C

1994-07-01

It has become increasingly clear in the last ten years that, in the UK, the scientific measurement and appraisal of human health risks, including pollution, are in the hands of the Government and establishment controlled organisations. In the area of drug-related illness, drug side-effects and medicine safety, profits are routinely put before health. The Chernobyl catastrophe, the greatest single pollution event ever, saw the Government responding with warnings which were too little and too late. Water and milk had been drunk, contaminated animals had been sold and eaten. Recently we have come within a hair's breadth of an ozone hole over Europe at a time when a General Election was in progress. Nothing was said: what information that was available came from the United Nations, from NASA, anywhere but from the UK Government. A recently leaked CEGB document shows levels of radioisotopic pollution in the Trawsfynydd lake to be different (and much higher) than those admitted to by Nuclear Electric pic and published by the Welsh Office. Details of the enormous release of radiation to the environment following the Windscale reactor fire in 1957 have only recently become available. At the time people could have been warned but were not. It is no longer possible to believe what we are told. Or what we are not told. Subtle and serious hazards to human health may exist and be unknown to us. To those who read this and perhaps follow up some of the references, it may seem a difficult task to choose between the few heretical voices and the massive nuclear industry megaphone. I have often been asked a variation of the following question: 'If scientists cannot agree amongst themselves on the effects of radiation, how are mere laymen expected to choose in this complicated and difficult area?' And so radiobiology has become like a religion. You believe or you do not. Radiation causes cancer at low dose or it does not. This is not a necessary state of affairs. Enough data is now

Scum cuddlers:police and the sex offenders’ register in England and Wales

OpenAIRE

Nash, Mike

2014-01-01

Police in England and Wales have been given an increasingly important role in community offender management. In many ways removed from what might be regarded as ‘real’ police work, it has nonetheless become a standard way of working for large numbers of police officers. An aspect of this work has brought the police into much closer and lasting professional contact with sex offenders as a result of new responsibilities given them under the Sexual Offenders Act, 1997. This article will discuss ...

Professional ideologies and the development of syringe exchange: Wales as a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Keene, J M; Stimson, G V

1997-12-01

This paper is derived from an evaluative study of HIV prevention programs for drug injectors across Wales. It considers how different professional territories and ideologies, concepts of drug misuse and models of HIV prevention may influence policy development. The research involved monitoring the introduction and development of agency and community based syringe exchange schemes and initiatives taken by community pharmacists. Interviews with staff, managers and administrators, and descriptions of service history, development and delivery inform the discussion. HIV prevention varied in different areas of Wales depending on the particular professional group involved, local ideologies regarding drug use treatment, and the extent to which HIV prevention was seen either as a specialist area of expertise and specific remit of drug workers or a generic health care task. Drug agencies with an abstinence policy rejected syringe exchange; instead, prevention in those areas developed in ad hoc ways as health care workers and pharmacists attempted to develop a community based service. Drug agencies with a pre-existing harm minimisation model easily integrated syringe exchange into their work and played the major part in establishing the service, but there was difficulty in extending it beyond their professional caseloads. As there were disincentives to use treatment agencies, and their catchment areas were limited, these factors influenced effective service provision.

Investigating the impact of the English health inequalities strategy: time trend analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Ben; Higgerson, James; Whitehead, Margaret

2017-07-26

Objective  To investigate whether the English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical health inequalities, compared with trends before and after the strategy. Design  Time trend analysis. Setting  Two groups of lower tier local authorities in England. The most deprived, bottom fifth and the rest of England. Intervention  The English health inequalities strategy-a cross government strategy implemented between 1997 and 2010 to reduce health inequalities in England. Trends in geographical health inequalities were assessed before (1983-2003), during (2004-12), and after (2013-15) the strategy using segmented linear regression. Main outcome measure  Geographical health inequalities measured as the relative and absolute differences in male and female life expectancy at birth between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country. Results  Before the strategy the gap in male and female life expectancy between the most deprived local authorities in England and the rest of the country increased at a rate of 0.57 months each year (95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.74 months) and 0.30 months each year (0.12 to 0.48 months). During the strategy period this trend reversed and the gap in life expectancy for men reduced by 0.91 months each year (0.54 to 1.27 months) and for women by 0.50 months each year (0.15 to 0.86 months). Since the end of the strategy period the inequality gap has increased again at a rate of 0.68 months each year (-0.20 to 1.56 months) for men and 0.31 months each year (-0.26 to 0.88) for women. By 2012 the gap in male life expectancy was 1.2 years smaller (95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.5 years smaller) and the gap in female life expectancy was 0.6 years smaller (0.3 to 1.0 years smaller) than it would have been if the trends in inequalities before the strategy had continued. Conclusion  The English health inequalities strategy was associated with a decline in geographical inequalities

Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben

2013-01-01

Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

Time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality in China, 1991?2009: an age-period-cohort analysis

OpenAIRE

Li, Mengmeng; Wan, Xia; Wang, Yanhong; Sun, Yuanyuan; Yang, Gonghuan; Wang, Li

2017-01-01

Esophageal and gastric cancers share some risk factors. This study aimed to compare the long-term trends in mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers in China to provide evidence for cancer prevention and control. Mortality data were derived from 103 continuous points of the Disease Surveillance Points system during 1991?2009, stratified by gender and urban-rural locations. Age-period-cohort models were used to disentangle the time trends of esophageal and gastric cancer mortality. Th...

Implementation of an Integrated Information Management System at the National Library of Wales: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Manon Foster; Thomas, Sian

2007-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to describe the experiences of the National Library of Wales in implementing an integrated information management system. Design/methodology/approach: Discusses the stages involved in the procurement process, data migration and general system implementation. Findings: Emphasises the need for a well-prepared yet flexible…

First GB records of the invasive Asian shore crab, Hemigrapsus sanguineus from Glamorgan, Wales and Kent, England.

OpenAIRE

Seeley, B; Sewell, J; Clark, PF

2015-01-01

The present contribution reports on the capture of two adult male specimens of the Asian/Japanese shore crab, Hemigrapsus sanguineus (de Haan, 1835) from Glamorgan, south Wales and Kent, southern England. These represent the first records of this species from mainland Great Britain.

Worlds Largest Wave Energy Project 2007 in Wales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Lars; Friis-Madsen, Erik; Kofoed, Jens Peter

2006-01-01

This paper introduces world largest wave energy project being developed in Wales and based on one of the leading wave energy technologies. The background for the development of wave energy, the total resource ands its distribution around the world is described. In contrast to wind energy turbines...... Dragon has to be scaled in accordance with the wave climate at the deployment site, which makes the Welch demonstrator device the worlds largest WEC so far with a total width of 300 meters. The project budget, the construction methods and the deployment site are also given....... a large number of fundamentally different technologies are utilised to harvest wave energy. The Wave Dragon belongs to the wave overtopping class of converters and the paper describes the fundamentals and the technical solutions used in this wave energy converter. An offshore floating WEC like the Wave...

Comparing electricity distribution network revenues and costs in New South Wales, Great Britain and Victoria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mountain, Bruce; Littlechild, Stephen

2010-01-01

A decade ago, electricity distribution network revenues per customer in New South Wales (NSW) were twice those in Great Britain (GB). Recent price controls imply that by 2014 they will be nearly four times as high. This paper examines possible reasons for this. The main reason does not seem to be geography, operating environment or industry structure. GB and Victoria have managed to accommodate increasing demand at broadly constant or even declining costs and revenues while delivering higher quality of service, while NSW has not. The regulatory framework and the practice of the regulatory body within that framework seem relevant. Australian regulators have not used benchmarking techniques as the GB regulator has. Perhaps the most important explanatory factor is private ownership in GB and Victoria compared to state ownership in NSW. This could also impact on the nature and effectiveness of regulation. (author)

Engaging Communities in their Heritage: Collaboration between Higher Education and the Voluntary Sector in Wales and Ireland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex Bell

2014-10-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on an Interreg funded pilot project entitled ‘Heritage and Culture for Learning, Empowerment and Sustainable Tourism’.  The project was a collaborative development between a Higher Education Institution in Wales and a Voluntary Sector Organisation in Ireland and adopted an innovative approach to engaging communities in their heritage.  The central aim of the project was to develop and promote joint opportunities for the creation of sustainable tourism products which build on the natural assets (people and landscape, built assets, culture and heritage of the Wales Ireland cross border region.  In practice this was achieved through an innovative approach combining research, lifelong learning, higher level skills development, networking, marketing and business development through active engagement of local communities. The pilot project ended in July 2013, and the focus of this presentation is an evaluation of the project outcomes and experiences.

Learning about Teacher Professional Learning: Case Studies of Schools at Work in New South Wales

Science.gov (United States)

McCulla, Norman; Gereige-Hinson, Josephine

2005-01-01

The extent of the human and financial resources that teachers have access to for their professional development, and the extent to which they have the capacity to determine when, how and with whom learning takes place, are key factors in determining the quality of professional learning that results. The New South Wales Department of Education and…

A decade of investment in radiotherapy in New South Wales: why does the gap between optimal and actual persist?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barton, Michael B.; Delaney, Geoff P.

2011-01-01

There is a gap between optimal and actual radiotherapy utilization (RTU) rates in New South Wales (NSW). It is uncertain if this is because these investments have been insufficient to meet demand, or demand has been over-estimated. In this study we assess trends in infrastructure, staffing and productivity in NSW over the last 10 years. The NSW Radiotherapy Management Information System reports annually on activity including new patients, new courses, retreatments, attendances, radiotherapy fields and Area Health Service (AHS) of residence. Data are obtained from interstate radiotherapy departments that treat NSW residents. A census of equipment and staffing is reported. RTU was defined as the number of new cases in a year treated by radiotherapy divided by the number of new cases of cancer in that year. From 1999 to 2008, 115 941 NSW residents received at least one course of radiotherapy. During this time period there were 325 965 new diagnoses of cancer reported by the Central Cancer Registry. RTU was 38% in 1999 and in 2008. The number of linear accelerators increased from 34 to 42 between 1999 and 2008 but the number of accelerators per 1000 new cases of cancer remained static at 1.2. For AHSs, there was a significant relationship between more linear accelerators per 1000 patients and higher RTU (P = 0.0023). Radiotherapy utilization in NSW has remained at 38% for the period 1999 to 2008 because investment in new facilities only just kept pace with the increase in the number of new cases of cancer with an indication for radiotherapy. Some regional AHS have shown significant increases in RTU with new facilities.

Association between NICE guidance on biologic therapies with rates of hip and knee replacement among rheumatoid arthritis patients in England and Wales

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hawley, Samuel; Cordtz, René; Dreyer, Lene

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact of NICE approval of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapies on the incidence of total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in England and Wales. METHODS: Primary care data [Clinical Practice.......92 PYs, respectively. NICE guidance was associated with a significant average decrease in TKR incidence of -4.41/1000 PYs (95% C.I. -6.88 to -1.94), equating to a relative 34% reduction. Overall, no effect was seen on THR rates. CONCLUSIONS: Among incident RA patients in England and Wales, NICE guidance...

Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

Tuberculosis in Mexico and the USA, Comparison of Trends Over Time 1990-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Garduño, Eduardo; Mendoza-Damián, Fabiola; Garduño-Alanís, Adriana; Ayón-Garibaldo, Salvador

2015-07-01

The aim was to compare tuberculosis trends in Mexico and United States and to evaluate Mexican diagnostic methods and contact investigation. Retrospective comparative study of tuberculosis cases and incidence rates between both countries (1990-2010). Diagnostic methods and contact investigations were also evaluated for Mexico. Estimates were obtained from official websites. In Mexico, no clear trend was found over time for cases. Pulmonary (PTB) and all forms of tuberculosis (AFTB) incidence decreased 2.0% annually. There was a negative correlation between the mean contacts examined per case and AFTB incidence (r(2)=-0.44, p=0.01) with a 33% reduction in AFTB incidence. In United States, PTB and AFTB cases have been decreasing 6.0% and 5.6% annually, respectively. The incidence decreased 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. The incidence of tuberculosis in Mexico is decreasing slightly over time at 2% annually. In the United States, cases and incidence rates have been decreasing at a higher rate (5% to 7% annually). The inverse association between number of contacts examined per state and incidence rates in Mexico underscore the importance of reinforcing and improving contact investigations with the likely translation of a decrease of TB incidence at a higher rate.

Long-term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream water for moorland, forested and clear-felled catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Neal

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Long term changes in the water quality of rainfall, cloud water and stream waters draining acidic and acid sensitive moorland and forested catchments at Plynlimon, mid-Wales, are examined for the period 1983 to 2001. Atmospheric inputs of chloride and sulphate are influenced by the relative inputs of clean maritime and polluted land based air masses. There is no systematic increase or decrease over time for chloride and non-sea-salt sulphate. Rather, there is a decadal scale process possibly representative of the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation that affects the maritime and pollution climate of the Atlantic seaboard of the UK. Over 17 years of study, there may be a small decrease in non-sea-salt sulphate of about 10 μeq l-1 and a small improvement in acid neutralising capacity of about 20 to 30 μeq l-1 in rainfall. There is a clear improvement in cloud water chemistry with respect to pollutant components (ammonium, nitrate, non-sea-salt sulphate and acidity (acid neutralising capacity improved by about 300 μeq l-1 through the study period. Many of the changes in cloud water chemistry are similar to rainfall over the same period except the magnitude of change is larger for the cloud water. Within the streams, there is some evidence for reductions in acidity as reflected by acid neutralising capacity becoming less negative. For one stream, deforestation occurred during the sampling period and this led to large increases in nitrate and smaller increases in aluminium midway through the study period. However, the climate and hydrological variability largely masked out other changes. The current analysis provides only a start to identifying trends for such a complex and variable environmental system. The need for strong statistical tools is emphasised to resolve issues of: (a hydrological induced water quality variability, (b changing soil and groundwater "endmember" chemistry contribution to the stream and (c the non-linear patterns of

THE EFFECT OF DECOMPOSITION METHOD AS DATA PREPROCESSING ON NEURAL NETWORKS MODEL FOR FORECASTING TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subanar Subanar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, one of the central topics for the neural networks (NN community is the issue of data preprocessing on the use of NN. In this paper, we will investigate this topic particularly on the effect of Decomposition method as data processing and the use of NN for modeling effectively time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. Limited empirical studies on seasonal time series forecasting with neural networks show that some find neural networks are able to model seasonality directly and prior deseasonalization is not necessary, and others conclude just the opposite. In this research, we study particularly on the effectiveness of data preprocessing, including detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method on NN modeling and forecasting performance. We use two kinds of data, simulation and real data. Simulation data are examined on multiplicative of trend and seasonality patterns. The results are compared to those obtained from the classical time series model. Our result shows that a combination of detrending and deseasonalization by applying Decomposition method is the effective data preprocessing on the use of NN for forecasting trend and seasonal time series.

Time trends in lifetime incidence rates of first-time diagnosed anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa across 16 years in a Danish nationwide psychiatric registry study.

Science.gov (United States)

Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Jensen, Christina Mohr

2015-11-01

To study recent time trends in the incidence of diagnosed anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) based on nationwide psychiatric register data. The Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry was used to identify the incidence of diagnosed cases with AN and BN at the ages of 4-65 years from 1995 to 2010. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated and were adjusted for time trends in the total number of people diagnosed in psychiatry. Time trends were analyzed using JoinPoint regression analysis. A total of N = 5,902 persons had a first-time incidence of AN, and a total of N = 5,113 had first-time incidence of BN. Incidence rates increased for AN from 6.4 to 12.6 per 100,000 person-years, and for BN from 6.3 to 7.2 per 100,000 person-years. In 2010, the male-to-female ratio was 1:8 for AN, and 1:20 for BN. There was an earlier onset for AN than for BN, and age at incidence decreased during the observation period for AN but not for BN. A sizeable part of the increasing incidence rates for AN and in particular, the younger AN age groups, could be attributed to an increase in the total number of N = 249,607 persons with first-time diagnoses in psychiatry. Incidence rates had increased slightly for AN, but were stable for BN across 16 years in this nationwide study and to a large extent were reflective of a general increase in diagnosed mental disorders. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Opportunity costs and local health service spending decisions: a qualitative study from Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsberg Schaffer, Sarah; Sussex, Jon; Hughes, Dyfrig; Devlin, Nancy

2016-03-25

All health care systems face the need to find the resources to meet new demands such as a new, cost-increasing health technology. In England and Wales, when a health technology is recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the National Health Service (NHS) is mandated to provide the funding to accommodate it within three months of publication of the recommendation. Identifying what, in practice, is foregone when new cost-increasing technologies are introduced is important for understanding the effects of health technology assessment (HTA) decisions on the NHS or any other health care system. Our objective was to investigate how in practice local NHS commissioners in Wales accommodated financial "shocks" arising from technology appraisals (TAs) issued by NICE and from other cost pressures. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with Finance Directors and Medical Directors from all seven Local Health Boards (LHBs) in NHS Wales. These interviews covered prioritisation processes, as well as methods of financing NICE TAs and other financial shocks at each LHB. We then undertook a systematic identification of themes and topics from the information recorded. The study relates to the period October 2010 to March 2013. The financial impact of NICE TAs is generally anticipated and planned for in advance and the majority of LHBs have contingency funds available to cope with these and other financial shocks within-period. Efficiency savings (defined as reductions in costs with no assumed reductions in quality) were a source of funds for cost pressures of all kinds. Service displacements were not linkable to particular NICE TAs and there appears to be a general lack of explicit prioritisation activities. The Welsh Government has, on occasion, explicitly or implicitly acted as the funder of last resort. Services may be displaced as part of a response to the cumulative impact of all types of cost pressures, including cost-increasing health

Simulating the effect of land use and climate change on upland soil carbon stock of Wales using ECOSSE

Science.gov (United States)

Rani Nayak, Dali; Gottschalk, Pia; Evans, Chris; Smith, Pete; Smith, Jo

2010-05-01

Within Wales soils hold between 400-500 MtC, over half of this carbon is stored in organic and organo-mineral soil which cover less than 20% of the land area of Wales. It has been predicted that climate change will increasingly have an impact on the C stock of soils in Wales. Higher temperatures will increase the rate of decomposition of organic matter, leading to increased C losses. However increased net primary production (NPP), leading to increased inputs of organic matter, may offset this. Land use plays a major role in determining the level of soil C and the direction of change in status (soil as a source or sink). We present here an assessment of the effect of land use change and climate change on the upland soil carbon stock of Wales in 3 different catchments i.e. Migneint, Plynlimon and Pontbren using a process-based model of soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, ECOSSE. The uncertainties introduced in the simulations by using only the data available at national scale are determined. The ECOSSE model (1,2) has been developed to simulate greenhouse gas emissions from both organic and mineral soils. ECOSSE was derived from RothC (3) and SUNDIAL (4,5) and predicts the impacts of changes in land use and climate on emissions and soil carbon stock. Simulated changes in soil C are dependent on the type of land use change, the soil type where the land use change is occurring, and the C content of soil under the initial and final land uses. At Migneint and Plynlimon, the major part of the losses occurs due to the conversion of semi-natural land to grassland. Reducing the land use change from semi-natural to grassland is the main measure needed to mitigate losses of soil C. At Pontbren, the model predicts a net gain in soil C with the predicted land use change, so there is no need to mitigate. Simulations of future changes in soil C to 2050 showed very small changes in soil C due to climate compared to changes due to land use change. At the selected catchments, changes

Reference population for international comparisons and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery proportions in three countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morken, N.H.; Vogel, I.; Kallen, K.

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: International comparison and time trend surveillance of preterm delivery rates is complex. New techniques that could facilitate interpretation of such rates are needed. METHODS: We studied all live births and stillbirths (>or= 28 weeks gestation) registered in the medical birth...

Anisotropic mechanical properties and Stone-Wales defects in graphene monolayer: A theoretical study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, B.B.; Yang, X.B.; Zhang, R.

2010-01-01

We investigate the mechanical properties of graphene monolayer via the density functional theoretical (DFT) method. We find that the strain energies are anisotropic for the graphene under large strain. We attribute the anisotropic feature to the anisotropic sp 2 hybridization in the hexagonal lattice. We further identify that the formation energies of Stone-Wales (SW) defects in the graphene monolayer are determined by the defect concentration and also the direction of applied tensile strain, correlating with the anisotropic feature.

Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

2018-04-01

This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana

Science.gov (United States)

Byakatonda, Jimmy; Parida, B. P.; Kenabatho, Piet K.; Moalafhi, D. B.

2018-03-01

Arid and semi-arid environments have been identified with locations prone to impacts of climate variability and change. Investigating long-term trends is one way of tracing climate change impacts. This study investigates variability through annual and seasonal meteorological time series. Possible inhomogeneities and years of intervention are analysed using four absolute homogeneity tests. Trends in the climatic variables were determined using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator statistics. Association of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with local climate is also investigated through multivariate analysis. Results from the study show that rainfall time series are fully homogeneous with 78.6 and 50% of the stations for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, showing homogeneity. Trends also indicate a general decrease of 5.8, 7.4 and 18.1% in annual, summer and winter rainfall, respectively. Warming trends are observed in annual and winter temperature at 0.3 and 1.5% for maximum temperature and 1.7 and 6.5% for minimum temperature, respectively. Rainfall reported a positive correlation with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and at the same time negative association with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Strong relationships between SSTs and maximum temperature are observed during the El Niño and La Niña years. These study findings could facilitate planning and management of agricultural and water resources in Botswana.

Making the economic case for prevention – a view from Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hale Janine

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is widely acknowledged that adverse lifestyle behaviours in the population now will place an unsustainable burden on health service resources in the future. It has been estimated that the combined cost to the NHS in Wales of overweight and obesity, alcohol and tobacco is in excess of £540 million. In the current climate of financial austerity, there can be a tendency for the case for prevention efforts to be judged on the basis of their scope for cost savings. This paper was prompted by discussion in Wales about the evidence for the cost savings from prevention and early intervention and a resulting concern that these programmes were thus being evaluated in policy terms using an incorrect metric. Following a review of the literature, this paper contributes to the discussion of the potential role that economics can play in informing decisions in this area. Discussion This paper argues that whilst studies of the economic burden of diseases provide information about the magnitude of the problem faced, they should not be used as a means of priority setting. Similarly, studies discussing the likelihood of savings as a result of prevention programmes may be distorting the arguments for public health. Prevention spend needs to be considered purposefully, resulting in a strategic commitment to spending. The role of economics in this process is to provide evidence demonstrating that information and support can be provided cost effectively to individuals to change their lifestyles thus avoiding lifestyle related morbidity and mortality. There is growing evidence that prevention programmes represent value for money using the currently accepted techniques and decision making metrics such as those advocated by NICE. Summary The issue here is not one of arguing that the economic evaluation of prevention and early intervention should be treated differently, although in some instances that may be appropriate, rather it is about making

Making the economic case for prevention – a view from Wales

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background It is widely acknowledged that adverse lifestyle behaviours in the population now will place an unsustainable burden on health service resources in the future. It has been estimated that the combined cost to the NHS in Wales of overweight and obesity, alcohol and tobacco is in excess of £540 million. In the current climate of financial austerity, there can be a tendency for the case for prevention efforts to be judged on the basis of their scope for cost savings. This paper was prompted by discussion in Wales about the evidence for the cost savings from prevention and early intervention and a resulting concern that these programmes were thus being evaluated in policy terms using an incorrect metric. Following a review of the literature, this paper contributes to the discussion of the potential role that economics can play in informing decisions in this area. Discussion This paper argues that whilst studies of the economic burden of diseases provide information about the magnitude of the problem faced, they should not be used as a means of priority setting. Similarly, studies discussing the likelihood of savings as a result of prevention programmes may be distorting the arguments for public health. Prevention spend needs to be considered purposefully, resulting in a strategic commitment to spending. The role of economics in this process is to provide evidence demonstrating that information and support can be provided cost effectively to individuals to change their lifestyles thus avoiding lifestyle related morbidity and mortality. There is growing evidence that prevention programmes represent value for money using the currently accepted techniques and decision making metrics such as those advocated by NICE. Summary The issue here is not one of arguing that the economic evaluation of prevention and early intervention should be treated differently, although in some instances that may be appropriate, rather it is about making the case for these

Status of eel fisheries, stocks and their management in England and Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aprahamian M.

2009-05-01

Full Text Available All continental life stages of eel are exploited in England and Wales. The main fisheries for glass eel are by estuarine dip-nets in the southwest. The main fisheries for yellow and silver eel occur in southern and eastern England, with fyke nets being the preferred instrument. Fishing effort is not directly recorded but is inferred from licence sales. Around 1100 glass eel licenses were sold annually from 1980 to 1994, increasing to around 2500 in 1998, but declined to about 800 per annum since 2001. Declared catches of glass eel have been below 1–2 t since 2001, compared to 10–70 t in the 1970s and 1980s. Licence sales for yellow and silver eel fisheries (combined varied from around 1100 to 2900 over the period 1983–2007, peaking in the mid-1980s, mid-1990s and again in 2005–2007. Declared catches peaked in the late 1980s and mid-1990s (peak 280 t, but have been low since 2001 (mean 29 t. Nett export data suggests catches may be 4 times higher. Eel landings are reported as bycatch from various marine fisheries around the UK coasts, with landings from 2001 to 2007 ranging from 0.2 to 13.7 t per annum. Assessment of stock status is based mainly on catch and catch per unit effort data as there has been little fishery independent survey of eels. There has been a general decreasing trend in both glass eel catches reported to the Agency and in nett export data. Comparing maximum catch levels in the late 1970s–early 1980s with minimum levels in the 2000s suggests that the catch has declined by around 75–95%. Trends in CPUE are similar, at least until 1998. It is concluded that current glass eel recruitment to the western coast of the UK is approximately 30% of the pre-1980 level of recruitment. Yellow and silver eel indices derived from HMRC nett exports or reported catches per licence sold, both suggest that the current estimate of stocks derived from these data are 20% those of the late 1980s and mid 1990s. The Reference Condition

Detecting atmospheric pollution in surface soils using magnetic measurements: A reappraisal using an England and Wales database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blundell, A.; Hannam, J.A.; Dearing, J.A.; Boyle, J.F.

2009-01-01

Industrial activity such as burning of fossil fuels produces magnetically enhanced particulates. These particulates consist of coarse-grained multidomain and stable single domain magnetic minerals. Two threshold values of low field magnetic susceptibility (χ LF ) and frequency dependent susceptibility percentage (χ FD %) discriminate ferrimagnetic minerals of these sizes and can act as a tracer of magnetic pollution. Application of the thresholds to a magnetic topsoil data set (n = 5656 across England and Wales) revealed 637 samples potentially dominated by pollution particulates. The magnetic parameters of these samples display a negative correlation with distance to urban areas and positive correlations with metals associated with anthropogenic activity (Cu, Pb, and Zn). Results of experimentation with threshold values and modelling of magnetic anomalies suggest that regional factors such as geology and potential for pedogenic secondary magnetic enhancement should be considered when setting threshold values. - An application of magnetic susceptibility and frequency dependent susceptibility thresholds across England and Wales to determine topsoil dominated by pollution derived particles.

Industrial relationships and nationalisation in the South Wales coalmining industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zweiniger-Bargielowska, I.-M. (University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom))

1990-01-01

The thesis examines industrial relationships in the South Wales coal mining industry at a colliery level. Various industrial relations stereotypes in the industry and the effect of nationalization on them are examined. The study concentrates on the collieries rather than the communities, comparing four collieries. Colliery managers, underofficials and mineworkers are studied, both in themselves and in relation to each other. Insights are gained into the causes of conflict within the industry. It is concluded that the ownership of the industry is not a major determinant of the level of conflict. It is suggested that many established views on the mining work force and attitudes to nationalization, work and unions need reassessing.

Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

Control of a community outbreak of hepatitis A in an area of low endemicity, Wales, 2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaz, J; Floyd, C; Mason, B; Shankar, A G; Lewis, H

2017-10-03

Incidence of hepatitis A in Wales is low (average of 0.48/100,000 inhabitants from 2004-2015). We describe a community outbreak of hepatitis A involving 3 schools (primary and secondary) in South Wales between March and June 2016 and reflect on the adequacy of the control measures used. Anyone in South Wales epidemiologically linked to a serological and/or RNA positive confirmed case of hepatitis A during the 15-50 d before onset of symptoms (diarrhea, vomiting, fever, nausea, AND jaundice, or jaundice-associated symptom) was defined as a case. Case identification was based on laboratory or GP suspicion notification, changing to active surveillance toward the end. As per national guidance, household contacts were identified and offered immunisation while in schools vaccination followed evidence of transmission. We went beyond guidance by vaccinating street play mates and in secondary schools. Mass vaccination uptake was calculated. There were 17 cases, mostly in children under 16 y of age. All cases had an epidemiological link to either a school or a household case (except primary) and no travel history. Street playing was the only epidemiological link between 2 cases in different schools. A total of 139 household contacts were identified. All schools, including secondary one, had a transmission event preceding mass vaccination (overall uptake 85%, reaching 1,574 individuals) and no tertiary cases emerged after the campaigns. We recommend extending guidance to include actions taken that helped curb this outbreak: 1) vaccinating in secondary school and 2) broadening the household contact definition. Based on our learning we further suggest 3) vaccinating upon identification of a single case who attended school while infectious regardless of source and 4) active case finding by serologically testing contacts.

From Vision to Reality: Views of Primary School Principals on Inclusive Education in New South Wales, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, Linda J.; Spandagou, Ilektra

2011-01-01

This paper discusses the findings of a research study that used semi-structured interviews to explore the views of primary school principals on inclusive education in New South Wales, Australia. Content analysis of the transcript data indicates that principals' attitudes towards inclusive education and their success in engineering inclusive…

Trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, body mass index and alcohol consumption in Danish adults with and without diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Molsted, Stig; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Snorgaard, Ole

2014-01-01

AIMS: In recent decades there has been an increased focus on non-pharmacological treatment of diabetes. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol consumption reported in 2000, 2005 and 2010 by Danish subjects......-sectional analyses from 2000, 2005 and 2010. RESULTS: In participants with diabetes, leisure time PA levels increased from 2000 to 2010: The percentage of those that were physically active increased from 53.5% to 78.2% (p... in participants with diabetes compared to participants without diabetes throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of physically active Danish participants older than 45 years with diabetes increased from 2000 to 2010, and the most beneficial trends in life style were observed among the women. These trends...

Online chilling effects in England and Wales

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Judith Townend

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Open and free internet-based platforms are seen as an enabler of global free expression, releasing writers from commercial and space constraints. However, many are working without the assistance of an in-house lawyer, or other legal resources. This may lead to undue suppression of public interest material, with important implications for freedom of expression and the democratic function of media. Two online surveys among digital and online journalists in England and Wales in 2013 indicated that the majority of encounters with defamation and privacy law take place outside the courts, with few formally recorded legal actions. This was particularly evident in a sample of ‘hyperlocal’ and local community publishers. In light of the results, this paper calls for a reappraisal of overly simplistic judicial and media applications of the ‘chilling effect’ doctrine, in order to expose its subjectivities and complexities. Additionally, attention needs to be paid to global and cross-jurisdictional media-legal environments, in order to help develop better internet policy and legal frameworks for protecting legitimate expression.

National audit of pressure ulcers and incontinence-associated dermatitis in hospitals across Wales: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Michael; Semple, Martin J; Ivins, Nicola; Mahoney, Kirsten; Harding, Keith

2017-08-21

The Chief Nurse National Health Service Wales initiated a national survey of acute and community hospital patients in Wales to identify the prevalence of pressure ulcers and incontinence-associated dermatitis. Teams of two nurses working independently assessed the skin of each inpatient who consented to having their skin observed. Over 28 September 2015 to 2nd October 2015, 8365 patients were assessed across 66 hospitals with 748 (8.9%) found to have pressure ulcers. Not all patients had their skin inspected with all mental health patients exempt from this part of the audit along with others who did not consent or were too ill. Of the patients with pressure ulcers, 593 (79.3%) had their skin inspected with 158 new pressure ulcers encountered that were not known to ward staff, while 152 pressure ulcers were incorrectly categorised by the ward teams. Incontinence-associated dermatitis was encountered in 360 patients (4.3%), while medical device-related pressure ulcers were rare (n=33). The support surfaces used while patients were in bed were also recorded to provide a baseline against which future changes in equipment procurement could be assessed. The presence of other wounds was also recorded with 2537 (30.3%) of all hospital patients having one or more skin wounds. This survey has demonstrated that although complex, it is feasible to undertake national surveys of pressure ulcers, incontinence-associated dermatitis and other wounds providing comprehensive and accurate data to help plan improvements in wound care across Wales. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Antibiotic Resistance among Clinical Ureaplasma Isolates Recovered from Neonates in England and Wales between 2007 and 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Beeton, Michael L; Chalker, Victoria J; Jones, Lucy C; Maxwell, Nicola C; Spiller, O Brad

2016-01-01

Ureaplasma spp. are associated with numerous clinical sequelae with treatment options being limited due to patient and pathogen factors. This report examines the prevalence and mechanisms of antibiotic resistance among clinical strains isolated from 95 neonates, 32 women attending a sexual health clinic, and 3 patients under investigation for immunological disorders, between 2007 and 2013 in England and Wales. MICs were determined by using broth microdilution assays, and a subset of isolates were compared using the broth microdilution method and the Mycoplasma IST2 assay. The underlying molecular mechanisms for resistance were determined for all resistant isolates. Three isolates carried the tet(M) tetracycline resistance gene (2.3%; confidence interval [CI], 0.49 to 6.86%); two isolates were ciprofloxacin resistant (1.5%; CI, 0.07 to 5.79%) but sensitive to levofloxacin and moxifloxacin, while no resistance was seen to any macrolides tested. The MIC values for chloramphenicol were universally low (2 μg/ml), while inherently high-level MIC values for gentamicin were seen (44 to 66 μg/ml). The Mycoplasma IST2 assay identified a number of false positives for ciprofloxacin resistance, as the method does not conform to international testing guidelines. While antibiotic resistance among Ureaplasma isolates remains low, continued surveillance is essential to monitor trends and threats from importation of resistant clones. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Radiometric ages of some igneous rocks from the southern and southwestern coalfields of New South Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, P.F.; Facer, R.A.

1980-01-01

Samples from six igneous rock units of the Southern and Southwestern Coalfields (Sydney Basin) of New South Wales have been dated using the K-Ar radiometric technique. The following ages were determined: a dolerite from Towradgi, 243 +- 10 MY; a dolerite from a diamond-drill hole at Sutton Forest, 202 +- 8 MY; the Bong Bong Basalt, 190 +- 8 MY; the Good Dog Lamprophyre, 101 +- 4 MY; a teschenite from South Bulli coal mine 74.0 +- 3.6 MY; and a dolerite from Robertson, 63.8 +- 3.2 MY. Combination of these new ages wth previously-published ages indicates that igneous activity in the Southern and Southwestern Coalfields occurred during four discrete periods of time - Middle-to-Late Permian; Late Triassic to Early Jurassic; mid-Cretaceous (only the Good Dog Lamprophyre has yielded such an age); and latest Cretaceous to Late Oligocene

The Role of Trust in the Development of Connectivities amongst Rural Elders in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Nigel; Fisher, Rhiannon

2012-01-01

Using Simmel's notion of sociation, the way in which rural elders in England and Wales relate to, or connect with, each other and others within their community, can be seen to be conflictual as well as consensual. As a vehicle for exploiting this relationship, social capital also can be antithetic as well as convergent and an important element of…

Similarities and Differences of the Emerging Prison Problems in England and Wales vs. Kosovo: a Sociological and Criminological Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MSc. Arben Lubach

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Prisons are probably the most debatable institutions within the Criminal Justice System in any given country and as such demand contemporary explanation and understanding. Despite the fact that prisons affect the life of many people, not only of those incarcerated but also of their families and friends, nevertheless they do not receive the necessary attention; instead they remain the most enigmatic and less interesting organizations amongst the Criminal Justice System in general. This paper, by using a literature review approach, looks into some of the most important debates, similarities and differences respectively, about prisons in England and Wales, and Kosovo. Whilst most of the problems both countries face are of similar nature, Kosovo nevertheless faces some additional problems which are not visible in the England and Wales prisons. The paper further examines the causes of these problems in the Kosovo prisons and the involvement of the international community and their efforts in assisting Kosovo in fixing the problems in the field of corrections as part of the Kosovo state-building process. The paper will show that both countries face difficulties with similar problem areas such as overcrowding, running costs, and so on. However, compared to England and Wales, the problems Kosovo prison system is facing are of a more serious and complicated nature which require serious involvement of the Kosovo government and policy makers as well as the international community which has been present in Kosovo since 1999.

What Makes the Digital "Special"? The Research Program in Digital Collections at the National Library of Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Cusworth, Andrew; Hughes, Lorna M.; James, Rhian; Roberts, Owain; Roderick, Gareth Lloyd

2015-01-01

This article introduces some of the digital projects currently in development at the National Library of Wales as part of its Research Program in Digital Collections. These projects include the digital representation of the Library's Kyffin Willams art collection, musical collections, and probate collection, and of materials collected by the…

[Time trend study of firearm mortality in Argentina, 1980-2012].

Science.gov (United States)

Spinelli, Hugo; Santoro, Adrián; Guevel, Carlos; Alazraqui, Marcio

2015-06-01

This work analyzes the impact of firearm mortality between 1980 and 2012 in Argentina. For this purpose a descriptive epidemiological time trend study was carried out including the following variables: sex, age group, intentionality and jurisdiction. Data was obtained from the Office of Health Statistics and Information of the Argentine Ministry of Health. A total of 87,671 deaths due to firearms were discovered, of which 85.7% occurred in men. The highest mortality rate due to firearms corresponded to the year 2002, reaching 21.2 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The age group concentrating the largest number of deaths due to firearms was that of 20-29 years, accounting for 25.6% of all deaths. The highest adjusted rates corresponded to the years 2000-2002, with values of 10.0 to 11.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This time period coincides with the institutional-economic crisis the country experienced. The province of Buenos Aires was the place of residence of 49.1% of the deceased. In the discussion, political-economic and ideological-cultural dimensions of the relations among firearms, violence, science and society are considered.

Myxomatosis in farmland rabbit populations in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, J; Tittensor, A M; Fox, A P; Sanders, M F

1989-10-01

The overall pattern and consequences of myxomatosis in wild rabbit populations were studied at three farmland sites in lowland southern England and upland central Wales between 1971 and 1978. When results from all years were combined, the disease showed a clear two-peaked annual cycle, with a main autumn peak between August and January, and a subsidiary spring peak during February to April. Rabbit fleas, the main vectors of myxomatosis in Britain, were present on full-grown rabbits in sufficient numbers for transmission to occur throughout the year, but the observed seasonal pattern of the disease appeared to be influenced by seasonal mass movements of these fleas. However other factors were also important including the timing and success of the main rabbit breeding season, the proportion of rabbits which had recovered from the disease and the timing and extent of autumn rabbit mortality from other causes. Significantly more males than females, and more adults and immatures than juveniles, were observed to be infected by myxomatosis. Only 25-27% of the total populations were seen to be infected during outbreaks. Using two independent methods of calculation, it was estimated that between 47 and 69% of infected rabbits died from the disease (much lower than the expected 90-95% for fully susceptible rabbits with the partly attenuated virus strains that predominated). Thus it was estimated that 12-19% of the total rabbit populations were known to have died directly or indirectly from myxomatosis. Although the effects of myxomatosis were much less than during the 1950s and 1960s, it continued to be an important mortality factor. It may still have a regulatory effect on rabbit numbers, with autumn/winter peaks of disease reducing the numbers of rabbits present at the start of the breeding season.

Portrayal of tobacco use in prime-time TV dramas: trends and associations with adult cigarette consumption--USA, 1955-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Daniel

2015-05-01

Although portrayal of television (TV) and movie tobacco use has been linked with initiation of cigarette smoking in adolescents, its association with smoking in adults has not been assessed. Therefore, we examined long-term and annual changes in tobacco portrayal in popular US TV dramas and their associations with comparable trends in national adult cigarette consumption. Tobacco use in 1838 h of popular US TV dramas was coded from 1955-2010. The long-term trend and annual deviations from trend were studied in relation to comparable trends in adult per capita cigarette consumption using correlational and time-series methods that controlled for other potential predictors. TV tobacco portrayal has trended downward since 1955 in line with the historical trend in cigarette consumption. Controlling for changes in cigarette prices and other factors, annual changes of one tobacco instance per episode hour across 2 years of programming were associated with annual change of 38.5 cigarettes per US adult. The decline in TV tobacco portrayal was associated with nearly half the effect of increases in cigarette prices over the study period. The correlation between tobacco portrayal in TV dramas and adult cigarette consumption is consistent with well-established effects of exposure to tobacco cues that create craving for cigarettes in adult smokers. Although tobacco use in TV dramas along with movies has declined over time, portrayal of smoking on screen media should be a focus for future adult tobacco control research and policy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Characterization of Land Transitions Patterns from Multivariate Time Series Using Seasonal Trend Analysis and Principal Component Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Benoit Parmentier

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Characterizing biophysical changes in land change areas over large regions with short and noisy multivariate time series and multiple temporal parameters remains a challenging task. Most studies focus on detection rather than the characterization, i.e., the manner by which surface state variables are altered by the process of changes. In this study, a procedure is presented to extract and characterize simultaneous temporal changes in MODIS multivariate times series from three surface state variables the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, land surface temperature (LST and albedo (ALB. The analysis involves conducting a seasonal trend analysis (STA to extract three seasonal shape parameters (Amplitude 0, Amplitude 1 and Amplitude 2 and using principal component analysis (PCA to contrast trends in change and no-change areas. We illustrate the method by characterizing trends in burned and unburned pixels in Alaska over the 2001–2009 time period. Findings show consistent and meaningful extraction of temporal patterns related to fire disturbances. The first principal component (PC1 is characterized by a decrease in mean NDVI (Amplitude 0 with a concurrent increase in albedo (the mean and the annual amplitude and an increase in LST annual variability (Amplitude 1. These results provide systematic empirical evidence of surface changes associated with one type of land change, fire disturbances, and suggest that STA with PCA may be used to characterize many other types of land transitions over large landscape areas using multivariate Earth observation time series.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis.

Science.gov (United States)

McCartney, G; Bouttell, J; Craig, N; Craig, P; Graham, L; Lakha, F; Lewsey, J; McAdams, R; MacPherson, M; Minton, J; Parkinson, J; Robinson, M; Shipton, D; Taulbut, M; Walsh, D; Beeston, C

2016-03-01

To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W). Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis. We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively. The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

López-Abente Gonzalo

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in the southern Tianshan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Yan-Jun; Shen, Yanjun; Fink, Manfred; Kralisch, Sven; Chen, Yaning; Brenning, Alexander

2018-02-01

Streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing of mountain rivers are susceptible to climate change. Trends and variability in streamflow and snowmelt runoff timing in four mountain basins in the southern Tianshan were analyzed in this study. Streamflow trends were detected by Mann-Kendall tests and changes in snowmelt runoff timing were analyzed based on the winter/spring snowmelt runoff center time (WSCT). Pearson's correlation coefficient was further calculated to analyze the relationships between climate variables, streamflow and WSCT. Annual streamflow increased significantly in past decades in the southern Tianshan, especially in spring and winter months. However, the relations between streamflow and temperature/precipitation depend on the different streamflow generation processes. Annual precipitation plays a vital role in controlling recharge in the Toxkon basin, while the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are governed by both precipitation and temperature. Seasonally, temperature has a strong effect on streamflow in autumn and winter, while summer streamflow appears more sensitive to changes in precipitation. However, temperature is the dominant factor for streamflow in the glacierized Kunmalik basin at annual and seasonal scales. An uptrend in streamflow begins in the 1990s at both annual and seasonal scales, which is generally consistent with temperature and precipitation fluctuations. Average WSCT dates in the Kaidu and Huangshuigou basins are earlier than in the Toxkon and Kunmalik basins, and shifted towards earlier dates since the mid-1980s in all the basins. It is plausible that WSCT dates are more sensitive to warmer temperature in spring period compared to precipitation, except for the Huangshuigou basin. Taken together, these findings are useful for applications in flood risk regulation, future hydropower projects and integrated water resources management.

Transport processes for Chernobyl-labelled sediments: preliminary evidence from upland mid-Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnett, P.J.P.; Leeks, G.J.L.; Cambray, R.S.

1989-01-01

The nuclear accident at Chernobyl in April 1986 resulted in a significant increase in the inventory of radiocaesium retained in the soil in many regions of the United Kingdom. The deposition of 134 Cs provides a convenient tool for the examination of erosional processes in upland systems. Detailed soil sampling has been undertaken within the Plynlimon experimental catchments to establish the pattern of deposition of Chernobyl-derived radionuclides. The preliminary results of a combined radiometric and mineral magnetic approach to the study of the transport of Chernobyl-labelled sediments and their source areas on these upland catchments in mid-Wales are described. (author)

Time trends in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection in a multiracial Asian population--a 20-year experience over three time periods.

Science.gov (United States)

Leow, A H-R; Lim, Y-Y; Liew, W-C; Goh, K-L

2016-04-01

Marked epidemiological changes in upper gastrointestinal diseases and Helicobacter pylori infection have taken place in the Asian Pacific region. In particular, differences with respect to race in the multiracial Asian population in Malaysia have been important and interesting. A time trend study of upper gastrointestinal disease and H. pylori infection in three time periods: 1989-1990, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 spanning a period of 20 years was carried out. Consecutive first time gastroscopies carried out on patients attending the University of Malaya Medical Center were studied. Diagnoses and H. pylori infection status were carefully recorded. A steady decline in prevalence of duodenal ulcer (DU) and gastric ulcer (GU) from 21.1% to 9.5% to 5.0% and from 11.9% to 9.4% to 9.9% while an increase in erosive oesophagitis (EO) from 2.0% to 8.4% to 9.5% (chi-square for trend; P Chinese and Indians but the difference over time was most marked in Malays. There was a steady decline in the proportion of patients with gastric and oesophageal cancers. Peptic ulcers have declined significantly over a 20-year period together with a decline in H. pylori infection. In contrast, a steady increase in erosive oesophagitis was observed. Gastric and oesophageal squamous cell cancers have declined to low levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Which Trend is your Friend?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

Application of the Trend Filtering Algorithm for Photometric Time Series Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalan, Giri; Plavchan, Peter; van Eyken, Julian; Ciardi, David; von Braun, Kaspar; Kane, Stephen R.

2016-08-01

Detecting transient light curves (e.g., transiting planets) requires high-precision data, and thus it is important to effectively filter systematic trends affecting ground-based wide-field surveys. We apply an implementation of the Trend Filtering Algorithm (TFA) to the 2MASS calibration catalog and select Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) photometric time series data. TFA is successful at reducing the overall dispersion of light curves, however, it may over-filter intrinsic variables and increase “instantaneous” dispersion when a template set is not judiciously chosen. In an attempt to rectify these issues we modify the original TFA from the literature by including measurement uncertainties in its computation, including ancillary data correlated with noise, and algorithmically selecting a template set using clustering algorithms as suggested by various authors. This approach may be particularly useful for appropriately accounting for variable photometric precision surveys and/or combined data sets. In summary, our contributions are to provide a MATLAB software implementation of TFA and a number of modifications tested on synthetics and real data, summarize the performance of TFA and various modifications on real ground-based data sets (2MASS and PTF), and assess the efficacy of TFA and modifications using synthetic light curve tests consisting of transiting and sinusoidal variables. While the transiting variables test indicates that these modifications confer no advantage to transit detection, the sinusoidal variables test indicates potential improvements in detection accuracy.

Limited prevalence of gaffkaemia (Aerococcus viridans var. homari) isolated from wild-caught European lobsters Homarus gammarus in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Stebbing, P D; Pond, M J; Peeler, E; Small, H J; Greenwood, S J; Verner-Jeffreys, D

2012-08-27

Gaffkaemia, caused by Aerococcus viridans var. homari, causes fatal infections in Homarus spp. (clawed lobsters). Despite its high economic significance to the lobster fisheries in the USA and northern Europe, data on its prevalence in captured and wild populations, particularly in Europe, is scarce. Following an outbreak of gaffkaemia in a European lobster holding facility in South Wales (UK), a base-line survey was conducted for gaffkaemia in wild populations of European lobster Homarus gammarus around the coast of England and Wales. In addition, isolates recovered from the original outbreak and the survey were typed using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and compared with previously characterised isolates from the USA, UK and Canada. Locally caught H. gammarus were sampled at 30 sites from around the coast of England and Wales between March 2006 and October 2008. Results confirmed that the prevalence of gaffkaemia in populations of H. gammarus was low, with only 9 positive isolates recovered from 952 samples examined. PFGE analysis showed that the isolates from the outbreak investigation shared the same pulsotype as A. viridans var. homari isolates from the USA, Norway and Canada, as well as an isolate (NCIMB 1119) reportedly recovered from an outbreak of European lobsters in England in the 1960s. This confirms earlier studies that suggest virulent strains of A. viridans var. homari show very limited geographical or temporal genetic variation and were introduced into the UK with American lobsters H. americanus.

The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

2010-01-01

Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Ocular and visual status among children in special schools in Wales: the burden of unrecognised visual impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhouse, J Margaret; Davies, Nathan; McAvinchey, Aideen; Ryan, Barbara

2014-06-01

The high prevalence of visual defects among children with special needs is well reported and guidelines for vision screening are in place. However, recent research has suggested that vision care for such children is neglected. This study set out to evaluate the current status of vision screening and eye care in special schools in Wales. In phase 1, all 44 special schools in Wales received a questionnaire on current vision screening practices. In phase 2, full eye examinations were conducted with 173 pupils of five schools with no screening service; the pupils were aged 2-21 years. In phase 3, feedback about the service was obtained from all schools and from 15 parents whose children took part. In phase 1, vision screening was patchy and inconsistent among the 39 schools responding. In phase 2, there is a high proportion of pupils (42%) reporting no previous eye examination. Overall, 17% of the pupils in the five schools presented with low vision (WHO definition, poorer than 0.3 LogMAR), 50% needed a first-time or updated spectacle prescription and 51% had some ocular abnormality that was either sight-limiting or warranted action to prevent risk to sight. In phase 3, school staff and parents reported that school-based eye examinations were valuable and, for those children with previous experience, likely to be more successful than clinic-based or practice-based examinations for this particular population. There is an urgent need for a school-based optometric service for this vulnerable group of children and young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Maternal inactivity: 45-year trends in mothers' use of time.

Science.gov (United States)

Archer, Edward; Lavie, Carl J; McDonald, Samantha M; Thomas, Diana M; Hébert, James R; Taverno Ross, Sharon E; McIver, Kerry L; Malina, Robert M; Blair, Steven N

2013-12-01

To examine 45-year trends in time use and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) in a nationally representative sample of US mothers. We quantified time allocation to physical activity (PA), sedentary behaviors (SED), and PAEE from 1965 to 2010 in mothers with older children (MOC) (>5 to ≤18 years) and mothers with younger children (MYC) (≤5 years). Physical activity was the sum of time allocated to housework, child care, laundry, food preparation, postmeal cleanup, and exercise. Sedentary behavior was the sum of time spent in a vehicle and using screen-based media. Physical activity energy expenditure was calculated using body weights from national surveys and metabolic equivalents. From 1965 to 2010, the time allocated to PA decreased by 11.1 h/wk (from 32.0 to 20.9 h/wk) in MOC and by 13.9 h/wk (from 43.6 to 29.7 h/wk) in MYC. The time spent in SED increased by 7.0 h/wk in MOC (from 17.7 to 24.7 h/wk) and increased by 5.7 h/wk in MYC (from 17.0 to 22.7 h/wk). Physical activity energy expenditure decreased by 1237.6 kcal/wk (176.8 kcal/d) in MOC (from 5835.3 to 4597.7 kcal/wk), and in MYC, PAEE decreased by 1572.5 kcal/wk (224.6 kcal/d), from 7690.5 to 6118.0 kcal/wk. There was a significant reallocation of time by mothers from PA (eg, housework) to SED (eg, watching television) between 1965 and 2010. Given the essential role of PA for health and the potential for the intergenerational transmission of obesity and obesogenic behaviors, these results suggest that maternal inactivity may be an important target for the primary prevention of chronic noncommunicable diseases and obesity. Copyright © 2013 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

UK Renal Registry 16th annual report: chapter 14 2012 multisite dialysis access audit in England, Northern Ireland and Wales and 2011 PD one year follow-up: national and centre-specific analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Victoria; Pitcher, David; Shaw, Catriona; Fluck, Richard; Wilkie, Martin

2013-01-01

Dialysis access should be timely, minimise complications and maintain functionality. Good functional access is required for renal replacement therapy (RRT) to be successful. The aim of the combined vascular and peritoneal dialysis access audit was to examine practice patterns with respect to dialysis access and highlight variations in practice between renal centres. The UK Renal Registry collected centre-specific information on vascular and peritoneal access outcome measures including patient demographics, dialysis access type (at start of dialysis and three months after start of dialysis), surgical assessment and access functionality. The combined access audit covered incident haemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients in 2012 from England, Northern Ireland and Wales. Centres who had reported data on incident PD patients for the previous audit in 2011 were additionally asked to provide one year follow up data for this group. Fifty-one centres in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (representing 82% of all centres) returned data on first access from 3,720 incident HD patients and 1,018 incident PD patients. A strong relationship was seen between surgical assessment and the likelihood of starting HD with an arteriovenous fistula (AVF). Type of first access was related to the length of time known to renal services with higher numbers of AVFs and PD catheters used in patients known to renal services for at least one year. Three month and one year outcomes of HD and PD access were poorly reported. This audit provides information on important patient related outcome measures with the potential to lead to an improvement in access provision. This represents an important advance, however data collection remains suboptimal. There is wide practice variation across the England, Wales and Northern Ireland in provision of both HD and PD access which requires further exploration. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Expectations and Levels of Understanding When Using Mobile Phones among 9-11-Year Olds in Wales, UK

Science.gov (United States)

Turley, Joanne; Baker, Sally-Ann; Lewis, Christopher Alan

2014-01-01

There is growing interest in examining the use of mobile technology among children. The present study extended this literature among a sample of 9-11-year olds in Wales, UK in three ways. First, to examine the level of mobile phone ownership; second, to consider how mobile phones are used, investigate timescales and expectations when communicating…

Diet and food availability: implications for foraging and dispersal of Prince of Wales northern flying squirrels across managed landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Elizabeth A. Flaherty; Merav Ben-David; Winston P. Smith

2010-01-01

Where dispersal is energetically expensive, feeding and food availability can influence dispersal success. The endemic Prince of Wales northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus griseifrons) inhabits a landscape mosaic of old-growth, second-growth, and clearcut stands, with the latter two representing energetically expensive habitats. We...

Population size, breeding habitat and nest site distribution of little penguins (Eudyptula minor) on Montague Island, New South Wales

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunsting, A.M.H.; Weerheim, M.S.; Klomp, N.I.; Komdeur, J.

2003-01-01

The distribution of little penguin nest sites on Montague Island, New South Wales, was examined in relation to vegetation type, distance to landing sites and local footpaths. Nest site density was negatively correlated with distance to landing sites and positively correlated with distance to

Assessment and treatment of sex offenders: the Prince of Wales Programme.

Science.gov (United States)

McConaghy, N

1990-06-01

The treatment programme for sex offenders at the Prince of Wales Hospital, Sydney, is described. Penile circumference assessment is not used as there is no evidence it provides a valid measure of individuals' paedophile or rapist tendencies. Sex offenders' self-reports remain the major source of information in their assessment. The development of the two major techniques used--imaginal desensitization and short-term medroxyprogesterone--is outlined. About 80% of subjects can be expected to show a good response to one or other of these therapies. Of those who do not, most respond to the alternative or aversive therapy. Adolescent offenders appear to require more intensive treatment. Results appear comparable with those of more intensive programmes in use overseas.

The nuclear electricity generating industry in England and Wales post-privatisation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, C.B.

1992-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the new legal framework within which the nuclear generating industry has operated in England and Wales since 31 March 1990. It describes the formation of Nuclear Electric plc and the licensing arrangements, including the various obligations which have been placed upon Nuclear Electric by virtue of its Generation Licence. The impact of competition law is outlined, together with the commercial arrangements including electricity pooling and some of the other more important agreements which Nuclear Electric has entered into. Finally, the Paper discusses some of the constraints under which Nuclear Electric operates, and summarises Government policy towards nuclear power and its future prospects in the United Kingdom. (author)

Distance Learning Masters Students in the Department of Information Studies, University of Wales, Aberystwyth: Past, Present and Future

Science.gov (United States)

Preston, Hugh

2005-01-01

This paper examines the postgraduate student body studying by distance learning within the Department of Information Studies at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth. The demands of both students and employers have been the chief influences on the evolution of the specialist postgraduate programmes and also the later generalist and further…

Further statement on the incidence of childhood cancer in Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

In March 1999 the Welsh Office asked COMARE to examine two unpublished studies. The first by Busby et al of ''Green Audit'' concluded that there was a significant excess of childhood leukaemia in North Wales associated with residential proximity to the coast. The second study, carried out by Steward et al of the Welsh Cancer Intelligence and Surveillance Unit (WCISU), did not support this conclusion. We were asked to advise as to whether we considered that there was a real raised incidence of childhood leukaemia near the coast of North Wales and whether further study was required. To do this we initially organised a comparison of the figures quoted by both the Green Audit and WCISU with the database held by the Childhood Cancer Research Group (CCRG) in Oxford. This group maintains the National Registry of Childhood Tumours (NRCT), data for which are supplied from a variety of sources including cancer registries but also directly from medical cancer specialists as well as from death certificates. As a consequence this provides an independent check on much of the data on childhood cancer held by cancer registries in Great Britain and is clinically validated. After carrying out the independent check on the number of cases of childhood leukaemia in these Welsh counties it was immediately apparent that the data held by Green Audit, on which the analysis by Busby et al was based, were incorrect. These data were received from the Welsh Cancer Registry (WCR) in 1995. A further data set was received from WCR in 1996 but was not used in the analysis by Busby et al. In June 1999 we issued a statement to the Welsh Office. In that statement we noted that Dr Busby and his colleagues appeared to have used erroneous data in their study. On the basis of the Steward et al data, COMARE also stated that we found no evidence to support the contention that there is an increased incidence of childhood leukaemia or other childhood cancers amongst the Welsh population living close to the

Outbreak of syphilis in men who have sex with men living in rural North Wales (UK) associated with the use of social media.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Daniel Rh; Williams, Christopher J; Andrady, Ushan; Anderson, Valerie; Humphreys, Sioned; Midgley, Claire M; Fina, Laia; Craine, Noel; Porter-Jones, Gary; Wilde, Alison; Whiteside, Chris

2016-08-01

To describe an outbreak of infectious syphilis in rural North Wales and the control measures implemented. Following reports of an increase of syphilis in North Wales, a multidisciplinary Outbreak Control Team (OCT) was established. A multilevel prevention and control response was initiated, including: active case surveillance, partner notification and treatment, sexual network analysis, awareness raising with professionals and affected communities, point-of-care syphilis testing at a sauna and a health promotion campaign targeting users of men who have sex with men (MSM) social network mobile phone applications (apps). Four cases of infectious syphilis were diagnosed in clinics in North Wales per 100 000 population in 2013 compared with a mean of one case per 100 000 in the preceding decade. Diagnosed cases peaked in January 2014, declining in the first half of 2014. Initial cases were clustered in the westerly rural counties of North Wales and were predominantly white men, self-reporting as MSM (median age: 34 years, range: 17-61). Point-of-care testing at a sauna did not identity further new infections, suggesting that the cluster was relatively focused and had probably been detected early. The use of apps to find sexual partners was a feature of the network affected. A health promotion campaign, initiated by the OCT, targeting men using MSM apps reached 92% of the 755 men messaged. The outbreak was successfully controlled. However, it is difficult to determine which of the interventions implemented were most effective. Future outbreaks should be used as an opportunity to evaluate interventions using apps. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Electing police and crime commissioners in England and Wales, 2012 as second-order elections

OpenAIRE

Johnston, R.; Pattie, C.

2014-01-01

The first elections to the newly created 41 posts of Police and Crime Commissioner in England and Wales were held in November 2012. The results show all the main characteristics of second-order elections. Turnout was low. The two unpopular coalition parties in the national government lost vote share compared to the outcome of the most recent general election, whereas the main opposition party's share increased substantially-as did that of a minor party (UKIP). Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKI...

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

Late Glacial-Holocene Pollen-Based Vegetation History from Pass Lake, Prince of Wales Island, Southeastern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Ager, Thomas A.; Rosenbaum, Joseph G.

2009-01-01

A radiocarbon-dated history of vegetation development since late Wisconsin deglaciation has been reconstructed from pollen evidence preserved in a sediment core from Pass Lake on Prince of Wales Island, southeastern Alaska. The shallow lake is in the south-central part of the island and occupies a low pass that was filled by glacial ice of local origin during the late Wisconsin glaciation. The oldest pollen assemblages indicate that pine woodland (Pinus contorta) had developed in the area by ~13,715 cal yr B.P. An abrupt decline in the pine population, coinciding with expansion of alder (Alnus) and ferns (mostly Polypodiaceae) began ~12,875 yr B.P., and may have been a response to colder, drier climates during the Younger Dryas climatic interval. Mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) began to colonize central Prince of Wales Island by ~11,920 yr B.P. and was soon followed by Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis). Pollen of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) began to appear in Pass Lake sediments soon after 11,200 yr B.P. The abundance of western hemlock pollen in the Pass Lake core during most of the Holocene appears to be the result of wind transport from trees growing at lower altitudes on the island. The late Holocene pollen record from Pass Lake is incomplete because of one or more unconformities, but the available record suggests that a vegetation change occurred during the late Holocene. Increases in pollen percentages of pine, cedar (probably yellow cedar, Chamaecyparis nootkatensis), and heaths (Ericales) suggest an expansion of muskeg vegetation occurred in the area during the late Holocene. This vegetation change may be related to the onset of cooler, wetter climates that began as early as ~3,774 yr B.P. in the region. This vegetation history provides the first radiocarbon-dated Late Glacial-Holocene terrestrial paleoecological framework for Prince of Wales Island. An analysis of magnetic properties of core sediments from Pass Lake suggests that unconformities

Nutrient enhanced short rotation coppice for biomass in central Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodson, R.W.; Slater, F.M.; Lynn, S.F.; Randerson, P.F. [Univ. of Wales (United Kingdom)

1993-12-31

Two projects involving short rotation willow coppice are taking place on the eastern side of the Cambrian Mountains in central Wales. One project examines, as an alternative land use, the potential of short rotation willow coppice variously enhanced by combinations of lime, phosphorous and potassium fertilizers and also digested sewage sludge on an acidic upland site at an altitude of 260m. The first year results of this project are described in detail, showing the necessity for limestone additions and also demonstrating that of the four willow varieties established, Salix dasyclados is the only possible, profitable fuel crop. The other project involving willow in a filter bed system is outlined along with an additional project investigating the effect of sewage sludge additions on the Rubus fruticosus production in a birch dominated mixed deciduous woodland.

Radiological assessment of private water supplies in Dolgellau, North Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, D.; McReddie, R.; Holland, B.

1993-01-01

Water samples from 100 private water supplies in the Meirionnydd District Council area of Dolgellau, North Wales have been analysed for natural and artificial radionuclides and the elements Calcium and Strontium. In addition 20 of the 100 supplies were specifically sampled for the measurement of radon-222. Of the 100 supplies tested all total alpha and beta values were within the WHO guideline values. An assessment of the radiological significance of the analytical data has been carried out by calculating the committed effective dose equivalent to a hypothetical critical group which would arise from the consumption of water during a single year. The maximum adult annual committed effective dose equivalent for artificial and total radionuclides measured during this programme of monitoring was found to be 3.2 and 560 μSv, respectively. (author)

Mapping bare soil in South West Wales, UK, using high resolution colour infra-red aerial photography for water quality and flood risk management applications

Science.gov (United States)

Sykes, Helena; Neale, Simon; Coe, Sarah

2016-04-01

Natural Resources Wales is a UK government body responsible for environmental regulation, among other areas. River walks in Water Framework Directive (WFD) priority catchments in South West Wales, UK, identified soil entering water courses due to poaching and bank erosion, leading to deterioration in the water quality and jeopardising the water quality meeting legal minimum standards. Bare soil has also been shown to cause quicker and higher hydrograph peaks in rural catchments than if those areas were vegetated, which can lead to flooding of domestic properties during peak storm flows. The aim was to target farm visits by operational staff to advise on practices likely to improve water quality and to identify areas where soft engineering solutions such as revegetation could alleviate flood risk in rural areas. High resolution colour-infrared aerial photography, 25cm in the three colour bands and 50cm in the near infrared band, was used to map bare soil in seven catchments using supervised classification of a five band stack including the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Mapping was combined with agricultural land use and field boundary data to filter out arable fields, which are supposed to bare soil for part of their cycle, and was very successful when compared to ground truthing, with the exception of silage fields which contained sparse, no or unproductive vegetation at the time the imagery was acquired leading to spectral similarity to bare soil. A raindrop trace model was used to show the path sediment from bare soil areas would take when moving through the catchment to a watercourse, with hedgerows inserted as barriers following our observations from ground truthing. The findings have been used to help farmers gain funding for improvements such as fencing to keep animals away from vulnerable river banks. These efficient and automated methods can be rolled out to more catchments in Wales and updated using aerial imagery acquired more recently to

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

OpenAIRE

Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

Time is on whose side? Time trends in the association between maternal social disadvantage and offspring fetal growth. A study of 1,409,339 births in Denmark 1981-2004

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Laust H; Diderichsen, Finn; Davey-Smith, George

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context of a univ......OBJECTIVE: Fetal growth is highly socially patterned and is related to health across the life course, but how the social patterns of fetal growth change over time remains understudied. We examined the time trends in maternal social disadvantage in relation to fetal growth in the context...... of a universal welfare state under changing macroeconomic conditions over a 24-year period. Design and settings: All births in Denmark 1981-2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The association between maternal social disadvantage in relation to birth weight for gestational age z-scores over time were analysed using...... linear regression. RESULTS: All measures of social disadvantage were associated with decreased fetal growth (p

Temporal trend of carpal tunnel release surgery: a population-based time series analysis.

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Naif Fnais

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Carpal tunnel release (CTR is among the most common hand surgeries, although little is known about its pattern. In this study, we aimed to investigate temporal trends, age and gender variation and current practice patterns in CTR surgeries. METHODS: We conducted a population-based time series analysis among over 13 million residents of Ontario, who underwent operative management for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS from April 1, 1992 to March 31, 2010 using administrative claims data. RESULTS: The primary analysis revealed a fairly stable procedure rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population per year receiving CTRs without any significant, consistent temporal trend (p = 0.94. Secondary analyses revealed different trends in procedure rates according to age. The annual procedure rate among those age >75 years increased from 22 per 10,000 population at the beginning of the study period to over 26 patients per 10,000 population (p<0.01 by the end of the study period. CTR surgical procedures were approximately two-fold more common among females relative to males (64.9% vs. 35.1 respectively; p<0.01. Lastly, CTR procedures are increasingly being conducted in the outpatient setting while procedures in the inpatient setting have been declining steadily - the proportion of procedures performed in the outpatient setting increased from 13% to over 30% by 2010 (p<0.01. CONCLUSION: Overall, CTR surgical-procedures are conducted at a rate of approximately 10 patients per 10,000 population annually with significant variation with respect to age and gender. CTR surgical procedures in ambulatory-care facilities may soon outpace procedure rates in the in-hospital setting.

Local Vegetation Trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal Using Long Time Series FAPAR Satellite Products and Field Measurement (1982–2010

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Martin Brandt

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Local vegetation trends in the Sahel of Mali and Senegal from Geoland Version 1 (GEOV1 (5 km and the third generation Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g (8 km Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR time series are studied over 29 years. For validation and interpretation of observed greenness trends, two methods are applied: (1 a qualitative approach using in-depth knowledge of the study areas and (2 a quantitative approach by time series of biomass observations and rainfall data. Significant greening trends from 1982 to 2010 are consistently observed in both GEOV1 and GIMMS3g FAPAR datasets. Annual rainfall increased significantly during the observed time period, explaining large parts of FAPAR variations at a regional scale. Locally, GEOV1 data reveals a heterogeneous pattern of vegetation change, which is confirmed by long-term ground data and site visits. The spatial variability in the observed vegetation trends in the Sahel area are mainly caused by varying tree- and land-cover, which are controlled by human impact, soil and drought resilience. A large proportion of the positive trends are caused by the increment in leaf biomass of woody species that has almost doubled since the 1980s due to a tree cover regeneration after a dry-period. This confirms the re-greening of the Sahel, however, degradation is also present and sometimes obscured by greening. GEOV1 as compared to GIMMS3g made it possible to better characterize the spatial pattern of trends and identify the degraded areas in the study region.

Time trends in prostate cancer surgery: data from an Internet-based multicentre database.

Science.gov (United States)

Schostak, Martin; Baumunk, Daniel; Jagota, Anita; Klopf, Christian; Winter, Alexander; Schäfers, Sebastian; Kössler, Robert; Brennecke, Volker; Fischer, Tom; Hagel, Susanne; Höchel, Steffen; Jäkel, Dierk; Lehsnau, Mike; Krege, Susanne; Rüffert, Bernd; Pretzer, Jana; Becht, Eduard; Zegenhagen, Thomas; Miller, Kurt; Weikert, Steffen

2012-02-01

To report our experience with an Internet-based multicentre database that enables tumour documentation, as well as the collection of quality-related parameters and follow-up data, in surgically treated patients with prostate cancer. The system was used to assess the quality of prostate cancer surgery and to analyze possible time-dependent trends in the quality of care. An Internet-based database system enabled a standardized collection of treatment data and clinical findings from the participating urological centres for the years 2005-2009. An analysis was performed aiming to evaluate relevant patient characteristics (age, pathological tumour stage, preoperative International Index of Erectile Function-5 score), intra-operative parameters (operating time, percentage of nerve-sparing operations, complication rate, transfusion rate, number of resected lymph nodes) and postoperative parameters (hospitalization time, re-operation rate, catheter indwelling time). Mean values were calculated and compared for each annual cohort from 2005 to 2008. The overall survival rate was also calculated for a subgroup of the Berlin patients. A total of 914, 1120, 1434 and 1750 patients submitted to radical prostatectomy in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were documented in the database. The mean age at the time of surgery remained constant (66 years) during the study period. More than half the patients already had erectile dysfunction before surgery (median International Index of Erectile Function-5 score of 19-20). During the observation period, there was a decrease in the percentage of pT2 tumours (1% in 2005; 64% in 2008) and a slight increase in the percentage of patients with lymph node metastases (8% in 2005; 10% in 2008). No time trend was found for the operating time (142-155 min) or the percentage of nerve-sparing operations (72-78% in patients without erectile dysfunction). A decreasing frequency was observed for the parameters: blood transfusions (1.9% in 2005; 0.5% in 2008

Protocol for implementing the concept of citizen scientists for HealthWise Wales: a national population study

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Julia Townson

2017-04-01

The concept of HealthWise Champion is agreeable to members of the public but appropriate training and support will need to be provided. Materials will be developed in conjunction with the advisory group members to ensure that HealthWise Wales Champions are able to clearly and confidently disseminate the more difficult elements of the study to others e.g data linkage. An evaluation will be available by July.

A human rights approach to advocacy for people with dementia: A review of current provision in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Dixon, Jeremy; Laing, Judy; Valentine, Christine

2018-01-01

In this article, we review current advocacy services for people with dementia in England and Wales (provided, respectively, under the Mental Capacity Act 2005 , the Mental Health Act 1983 /2007 and the Care Act 2014) through the lens of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD). We examine what a human rights' approach to advocacy support would entail, and whether current frameworks in England and Wales are adequate for this approach and provide a sufficient safeguard. First, we consider how the human rights of persons with dementia have become increasingly important and the extent to which the CRPD provides an opportunity to bolster safeguards and protection. Second, we discuss cause and case advocacy, and how these advocacy models could be shaped by the CRPD to promote the rights of persons with dementia at each stage of the disease. Third, we highlight current dilemmas and challenges in the provision of advocacy support in England and Wales by focusing on case law, commissioning of services and current practice. In particular, we analyse how the different legislative schemes have given rise to some confusion about the various advocacy provisions, as well as potential for overlap and discrepancies between different regimes. We also highlight the need for further research to address important gaps in knowledge, including the scale of need, patterns of referral and attitudes to advocacy services. The article concludes by highlighting how advocacy support could be recalibrated as a universal right to promote the aims and aspirations of the CRPD, and how education is needed to address the stigma of dementia and promote the benefits of advocacy in protecting the rights of those with dementia.

Decreasing pH trend estimated from 25-yr time series of carbonate parameters in the western North Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Midorikawa, Takashi; Ishii, Masao; Sasano, Daisuke; Kosugi, Naohiro (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (Japan)), e-mail: midorika@mri-jma.go.jp; Saito, Shu (Geochemical Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan); Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)); Motoi, Tatsuo (Oceanographic Research Dept., Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba (Japan)); Kamiya, Hitomi; Nakadate, Akira; Nemoto, Kazuhiro (Global Environment and Marine Dept., Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)); Inoue, Hisayuki Y. (Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan))

2010-11-15

We estimated long-term trends of ocean acidification in surface waters in latitudinal zones from 3 deg N to 33 deg N along the repeat hydrographic line at 137 deg E in the western North Pacific Ocean. Estimates were based on the observational records of oceanic CO{sub 2} partial pressure and related surface properties over the last two decades. The computed pH time series both for 25 yr in winter (late January to early February) and for 21 yr in summer (June-July) exhibited significant decreasing trends in the extensive subtropical to equatorial zones, with interannual variations that were larger in summer. The calculated rates of pH decrease ranged from 0.0015 to 0.0021 yr-1 (average, 0.0018 +- 0.0002 yr-1) in winter and from 0.0008 to 0.0019 yr-1 (average, 0.0013 +- 0.0005 yr-1 ) in summer. The thermodynamic effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) accounted for up to 44% (average, 15%) of the trend of pH decrease in the subtropical region in winter, whereas a trend of decreasing SST slowed the pH decrease in the northern subtropical region (around 25 deg N) in summer. We used the results from recent trends to evaluate future possible thermodynamic changes in the upper ocean carbonate system

Monitoring and Evaluation of Human Trafficking Partnerships in England and Wales

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Ruth Van Dyke

2017-04-01

Full Text Available In the United Kingdom, human trafficking and, more recently, modern slavery has been pushed up the political and policy agenda. At the same time, partnership working has been promoted at international and national levels in order to encourage a more holistic response to trafficking. This article examines the nature of the evidence collected to monitor and evaluate the activities and outcomes of organisations involved in a number of human trafficking partnerships in England and Wales. Underpinning this analysis is the ‘4 Ps’ approach to tackling human trafficking: Prevention, Protection, Prosecution and Partnership. Based on interviews with a variety of actors working in different partner bodies, limitations of evidence in relation to both monitoring activities as well as evaluating outcomes emerged. These relate to inadequate data collection, lack of robust methods of data collection, untested assumptions, the complexity of gathering evidence which reflect human welfare oriented goals, and the sharing of evidence between partner organisations. A key finding is that current data and methods of data collection are inadequate for the purpose of measuring the effectiveness of anti-trafficking initiatives and partnerships. Another key finding is the way in which partnerships challenged received outcomes and expanded their focus beyond victims of trafficking or criminal justice goals. Finally, I explore whether criminal justice outcomes can be leveraged to foster deterrence, by interrogating what evidence might be needed.

Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

2015-01-01

To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

EIA scoping in England and Wales: Practitioner approaches, perspectives and constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wood, Graham; Glasson, John; Becker, Julia

2006-01-01

Scoping plays a critical role in shaping the nature and extent of the environmental information subsequently contained in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), yet it has been identified as an area of weakness in practice () and remains a poorly understood and under-researched component of EIA. This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation and assessment of recent scoping activity in England and Wales, in the context of evolving European Union (EU) regulations. Conceptual and contextual issues associated with scoping are outlined prior to the presentation of key findings, including: approaches to scoping; the assessment of significance; characteristics and influence of consultation; and perceived constraints to scoping. The paper concludes with an overview of findings, possible explanatory factors, and recommendations for future practice

Australian doctors and the visual arts. Part 2. Doctors as collectors, donors, gallery supporters and writers in New South Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, D G

1986-04-28

The contribution of doctors to the visual arts if being discussed in a series of six articles. The first article dealt with doctor-artists in new South Wales. In this, the second, doctors are discussed as collectors, donors, gallery supporters and writers in this State.

Breaking The Link Between Legal Access To Alcohol And Motor Vehicle Accidents: Evidence From New South Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindo, Jason M; Siminski, Peter; Yerokhin, Oleg

2016-07-01

A large literature has documented significant public health benefits associated with the minimum legal drinking age in the USA, particularly because of the resulting effects on motor vehicle accidents. These benefits form the primary basis for continued efforts to restrict youth access to alcohol. It is important to keep in mind that policymakers have a wide variety of alcohol-control options available to them, and understanding how these policies may complement or substitute for one another can improve policy making moving forward. Towards this end, we propose that investigating the causal effects of the minimum legal drinking age in New South Wales, Australia, provides a particularly informative case study, because Australian states are among the world leaders in their efforts against drunk driving. Using an age-based regression discontinuity design applied to restricted-use data from several sources, we find no evidence that legal access to alcohol has effects on motor vehicle accidents of any type in New South Wales, despite having large effects on drinking and on hospitalizations due to alcohol abuse. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Time trends, improvements and national auditing of rectal cancer management over an 18-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

Kodeda, K; Johansson, R; Zar, N; Birgisson, H; Dahlberg, M; Skullman, S; Lindmark, G; Glimelius, B; Påhlman, L; Martling, A

2015-09-01

The main aims were to explore time trends in the management and outcome of patients with rectal cancer in a national cohort and to evaluate the possible impact of national auditing on overall outcomes. A secondary aim was to provide population-based data for appraisal of external validity in selected patient series. Data from the Swedish ColoRectal Cancer Registry with virtually complete national coverage were utilized in this cohort study on 29 925 patients with rectal cancer diagnosed between 1995 and 2012. Of eligible patients, nine were excluded. During the study period, overall, relative and disease-free survival increased. Postoperative mortality after 30 and 90 days decreased to 1.7% and 2.9%. The 5-year local recurrence rate dropped to 5.0%. Resection margins improved, as did peri-operative blood loss despite more multivisceral resections being performed. Fewer patients underwent palliative resection and the proportion of non-operated patients increased. The proportions of temporary and permanent stoma formation increased. Preoperative radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy became more common as did multidisciplinary team conferences. Variability in rectal cancer management between healthcare regions diminished over time when new aspects of patient care were audited. There have been substantial changes over time in the management of patients with rectal cancer, reflected in improved outcome. Much indirect evidence indicates that auditing matters, but without a control group it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the possible impact of a quality control registry on faster shifts in time trends, decreased variability and improvements. Registry data were made available for reference. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Choose your menu wisely: cuisine-associated food-poisoning risks in restaurants in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Gormley, F J; Rawal, N; Little, C L

2012-06-01

The food service sector continues to be the most common setting for reported foodborne disease outbreaks in England and Wales. Using restaurant-associated foodborne outbreaks reported in England and Wales from 1992 to 2009, cuisine-specific risk factors were examined. Of 677 restaurant outbreaks, there were 11 795 people affected, 491 hospitalizations, and seven deaths; and Chinese, Indian, British and Italian cuisines were the most commonly implicated (26%, 16%, 13% and 10%, respectively). Salmonella spp. accounted for most outbreaks of all cuisine types, and particularly Chinese (76%, 133/175) and Italian (55%, 38/69). Poultry meat was the most frequently implicated food vehicle in outbreaks associated with Indian (30%), Chinese (21%), and British (18%) cuisines while for Italian cuisine, desserts and cakes were more frequently implicated (33%). Rice dishes were also a common outbreak food vehicle in those restaurants serving Chinese (22%) and Indian (16%) cuisine. Cross-contamination was the biggest contributory factor associated with Chinese (46%), British (33%) and Indian (30%) cuisines whereas inadequate cooking (38%) and use of raw shell eggs in lightly cooked or uncooked food (35%) were more often associated with Italian cuisine. Over the surveillance period, the proportion of Salmonella Enteritidis PT4 outbreaks in restaurants serving Chinese cuisine significantly decreased (Pcuisine type, specific evidence of food control failures can be used to target foodborne illness reduction strategies.

Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

2015-12-01

The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

Time trends in leisure time physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index in Danish adults with and without COPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Henrik; Johnsen, Nina Føns; Molsted, Stig

2016-01-01

Background: Promotion of a healthy lifestyle and non-pharmacological interventions in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has received great attention in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate trends in leisure time physical activity (PA), smoking......, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) from 2000 to 2010 in Danish individuals with and without COPD. Methods: Analyses were based on data provided by The Danish Health and Morbidity's three cross-sectional surveys from 2000, 2005 and 2010. Data compromised level of leisure time PA, smoking......, alcohol consumption, BMI and sociodemographic characteristics. Participants aged 25 years or older with and without COPD were included in the analyses. Results: In multiple logistic regression analyses, odds ratio (OR) of being physically active in the leisure time in 2010 compared to 2000 was 1.70 (95...

Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

2007-06-01

With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suhartono Suhartono

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

Coroners' records of rural and non-rural cases of youth suicide in New South Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Dudley, M; Kelk, N; Florio, T; Waters, B; Howard, J; Taylor, D

1998-04-01

The aim of this study is to compare the frequency of certain putative risk factors for youth suicide in New South Wales (especially use of alcohol, social class, unemployment, and internal migration) in metropolitan and rural settings. A review of 137 files for 10-19-year-old subjects judged by the Coroner to have committed suicide in 1988-1990 was carried out. One hundred and fifteen males and 21 females were identified (one subjects sex was unavailable). The male-female ratio was higher in rural (13.0) areas than non-rural (4.9 chi 2 = 12.14, p Australia, most migrated in a rural direction, and most to rural shires. Unemployment was somewhat more common among rural (38.5%) than non-rural (28.9%) subjects (chi 2 = 0.75, p = 0.39). Eleven of 50 non-rural parents of the deceased, but none of the 11 rural parents, were ranked as being in social classes 2 or 3. Alcohol consumption appeared more common in rural shires (44%) than metropolitan areas (32.9%), but this was not statistically significant. Medical services were less utilised prior to death in rural (15%) than non-rural (25%) areas (chi 2 = 1.69, p = 0.19), and a psychiatric diagnosis was recorded more commonly in non-rural areas. Incomplete coronial file data and relatively small numbers limit this study's conclusions. Male suicides, principally by firearms, predominated in rural areas. Youth firearm access remains highly relevant to rural communities. Possible trends among rural subjects toward rural migration, higher unemployment, lower social class and lower medical attendance may point to resource deprivation among this group; these matters require further investigation.

Time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality in Mexico, 1980-1990

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SUSAN VANDALE

1997-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. This article analyzes the time-trends and causes of infant, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s. Material and methods. Data on infant deaths came from yearly tabulations (1980 to 1990 published by the Mexican government. Time-trends of mortality rates were determined by simple linear regression models. The parallelism test was performed for evaluating similarities in trends in neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates by causes. Results. During the 1980’s, infant mortality rates in Mexico declined from 40.4 to 31.1/1 000 (ß= -0.791. Postneonatal mortality rates showed a strong decrease (ß= -0.892, while neonatal mortality rates were almost stationary (ß= 0.089. Significant rate decreases were observed for Intestinal infections, Pneumonia and influenza and all other causes while Certain perinatal problems, Congenital defects and Nutritional deficiencies increased. No changes were observed in Acute respiratory infections. The neonatal proportional mortality showed an incremental trend accounting for 37.6% in 1980 and ascending to 48.8% in 1990 of the mortality in the first year of life. Conclusions.This analysis indicates that the reduction in infant mortality in Mexico during the 1980’s was due to declining postneonatal mortality while neonatal mortality rates remain almost unchanged.Objetivo. Analizar las tendencias seculares de las tasas de mortalidad infantil (TMI neonatal (TMN y posneonatal (TMP en México de 1980-1990. Material y métodos. La información estudiada fue proporcionada por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática. Las tendencias de los indicadores fueron determinadas mediante modelos de regresión lineal y se efectuaron pruebas de paralelismo para evaluar la semejanza en pendientes de TMN y TMP por causas. Resultados. Las TMI se redujeron de 40.4 a 31.1/1 000, (ß= -0.791. Las TMP mostraron un decremento significativo (ß= -0.892, mientras que las TMN

Who should do the dishes now? Revisiting gender and housework in contemporary urban South Wales

OpenAIRE

Mannay, Dawn

2016-01-01

This chapter revisits Jane Pilcher’s (1994) seminal work ‘Who should do the dishes? Three generations of Welsh women talking about men and housework’, which was originally published in Our Sister’s Land: the changing identities of women in Wales. As discussed in the introductory chapter, I began revisiting classic Welsh studies as part of my doctoral study Mothers and daughters on the margins: gender, generation and education (Mannay, 2012); this lead to the later publication of a revisiting ...

40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar whole rock age constraints on the timing of regional deformation, South Coast of New South Wales, Lachlan Fold Belt, Southeastern Australia: problems and implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, D.; Fergusson, C.L.

1999-01-01

Full text: Subduction complex rocks are well exposed on the south coast of New South Wales around Batemans Bay. Farther south in the Narooma and Bermagui region, Offier et al (1998) have determined two 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of 450 ± 3 Ma and 445 ± 2 Ma. They argued that these ages constrain the timing of intense underplating-related deformation and we have undertaken farther work, from an area south of Batemans Bay, to test this suggestion. The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar method applied to fine-grained, low temperature metamorphic rocks, such as slates, is beset by the problem of recoil loss and/or redistribution of 39 Ar during the irradiation process. Another problem is the difficulty of distinguishing between the contributions to 40 Ar/ 39 Ar spectra from illite/muscovite grown during the cleavage-producing deformation and detrital muscovite/illite. In the current study, four slate samples, with variable contents of detrital white mica, were analysed by both the K-Ar and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar step-heating methods. A separate of detrital white mica from one slate sample yields a plateau age of 500 ± 2 Ma. This result indicates that inheritance has not been eliminated by metamorphism as is commonly assumed and that the 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages provide only a maximum estimate for the timing of deformation. 40 Ar/ 39 Ar analyses of state chips yield discordant, saddle-shaped age spectra, with minimum, within-saddle' ages of ca. 420 Ma. Two slate samples give identical 40 Ar/ 39 Ar integrated ages of 455 ± 2 Ma. One sample contains relatively abundant detrital bedding-parallel mica flakes that are locally oblique to the regional cleavage in the rock. The 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages are some 20 Ma older than K-Ar ages for these same samples, suggesting that recoil loss of 39 Ar may also have affected these slates. Both recoil loss of 39 Ar and inherited white micas will yield elevated apparent ages, thus providing only maximum ages for the cleavage-producing deformation. Two other samples from slaty tectonic

Health and social care regulation in Wales: an integrated system of political, corporate and professional governance for improving public health.

Science.gov (United States)

Jewell, Tony; Wilkinson, Jane

2008-11-01

Wales is developing a unique integrated system of governance to improve public health, which is diverging from some recent developments in the rest of the UK but shares many common features. There is a focus on strengthening collaborative working and co-ordination between bodies inspecting, regulating and auditing health and social care. Systems are being developed that are proportionate to the level of risk, eliminate unnecessary burdens of external review and support the improvement of services for patients, service users and carers. This is consistent with the Assembly Government's aim to improve the way that public services are delivered in Wales, including strengthening input from the public in the planning, delivery and reporting of regulation and inspection work. The test in the future will be how far we can demonstrate quantitatively and qualitatively the added value from our uniquely Welsh approach, built as it is on devolution and the aspirations for small-country governance.

Automatic trend estimation

CERN Document Server

Vamos¸, C˘alin

2013-01-01

Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

Cancer survival disparities worsening by socio-economic disadvantage over the last 3 decades in new South Wales, Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna E. Tervonen

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Public concerns are commonly expressed about widening health gaps. This cohort study examines variations and trends in cancer survival by socio-economic disadvantage, geographical remoteness and country of birth in an Australian population over a 30-year period. Methods Data for cases diagnosed in New South Wales (NSW in 1980–2008 (n = 651,245 were extracted from the population-based NSW Cancer Registry. Competing risk regression models, using the Fine & Gray method, were used for comparative analyses to estimate sub-hazard ratios (SHR with 95% confidence intervals (CI among people diagnosed with cancer. Results Increased risk of cancer death was associated with living in the most socio-economically disadvantaged areas compared with the least disadvantaged areas (SHR 1.15, 95% CI 1.13–1.17, and in outer regional/remote areas compared with major cities (SHR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03–1.06. People born outside Australia had a similar or lower risk of cancer death than Australian-born (SHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98–1.01 and SHR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90–0.92 for people born in other English and non-English speaking countries, respectively. An increasing comparative risk of cancer death was observed over time when comparing the most with the least socio-economically disadvantaged areas (SHR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04–1.10 for 1980–1989; SHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12–1.17 for 1990–1999; and SHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.21–1.27 for 2000–2008; p < 0.001 for interaction between disadvantage quintile and year of diagnosis. Conclusions There is a widening gap in comparative risk of cancer death by level of socio-economic disadvantage that warrants a policy response and further examination of reasons behind these disparities.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2006-01-01

contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

Use of data mining techniques to investigate disease risk classification as a proxy for compromised biosecurity of cattle herds in Wales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pfeiffer Dirk U

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Biosecurity is at the forefront of the fight against infectious diseases in animal populations. Few research studies have attempted to identify and quantify the effectiveness of biosecurity against disease introduction or presence in cattle farms and, when done, they have relied on the collection of on-farm data. Data on environmental, animal movement, demographic/husbandry systems and density disease determinants can be collated without requiring additional specific on-farm data collection activities, since they have already been collected for some other purposes. The aim of this study was to classify cattle herds according to their risk of disease presence as a proxy for compromised biosecurity in the cattle population of Wales in 2004 for risk-based surveillance purposes. Results Three data mining methods have been applied: logistic regression, classification trees and factor analysis. Using the cattle holding population in Wales, a holding was considered positive if at least bovine TB or one of the ten most frequently diagnosed infectious or transmissible non-notifiable diseases in England and Wales, according to the Veterinary Investigation Surveillance Report (VIDA had been diagnosed in 2004. High-risk holdings can be described as open large cattle herds located in high-density cattle areas with frequent movements off to many locations within Wales. Additional risks are associated with the holding being a dairy enterprise and with a large farming area. Conclusion This work has demonstrated the potential of mining various livestock-relevant databases to obtain generic criteria for individual cattle herd biosecurity risk classification. Despite the data and analytical constraints the described risk profiles are highly specific and present variable sensitivity depending on the model specifications. Risk profiling of farms provides a tool for designing targeted surveillance activities for endemic or emerging diseases

Twenty four year time trends in fats and cholesterol intake by adolescents. Warsaw Adolescents Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charzewska Jadwiga

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to determine time trends (1982–2006 in total fat intake and changes in fatty acid structure intake in adolescents from Warsaw in view of increasing prevalence of obesity. Data come from four successive surveys randomly selected samples of adolescents (aged 11–15 years old, from Warsaw region. In total 9747 pupils have been examined, with response rate varying from 55% to 87% depending on year. Surveys were done always in the spring season of the year. Food intake was assessed by using 24 hours recall method of consumption by the pupils all products, including enriched, dishes and beverages as well as diet supplements, in the last 24 hours preceding the examination. The content of energy and nutrients was calculated by means of own computer softwares (DIET 2 and 4, taking into account successive revisions of the tables of food composition and nutritional values, as well as current Polish DRI. A significant decreasing trend was found in intake of total fat, of saturated fatty acids (SFA and cholesterol. The percentage of energy from total fat, also decreased both in boys (to 35,1% and girls (to 33,7%, what failed to reach the desired level below 30% of energy from fat which is recommended. Also significant decrease of SFA consumption was not satisfactory enough to approach the values <10% of energy recommended as was from 13% to 15%. Decreasing trends in fat intake was not in accordance with the trend in obesity prevalence in the adolescents as average BMI is going up. To stabilize the health-oriented changes especially in the diets of adolescents, further activity is desired from professionals working with prevention of adolescents obesity.

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Incredible Years Parent Training Support for Nursery Staff Working within a Disadvantaged Flying Start Area in Wales: A Feasibility Study

Science.gov (United States)

Bywater, Tracey Jane; Hutchings, Judith Mary; Gridley, Nicole; Jones, Karen

2011-01-01

Parenting programmes are effective interventions for preventing and treating conduct problems in young children. Up to 20% of children in disadvantaged areas have conduct disorder. Recent government initiatives such as targeting early years services to designated disadvantaged Flying Start areas in Wales have resulted in increased nursery-care…

The Spiritual Revolution and Suicidal Ideation: An Empirical Enquiry among 13- to 15-Year-Old Adolescents in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Mandy; Francis, Leslie J.

2009-01-01

The association between conventional religiosity and suicide inhibition has been well explored and documented since the pioneering work of Durkheim. Commentators like Heelas and Woodhead point to ways in which conventional religiosity is giving way in England and Wales to a range of alternative spiritualities, including renewed interest in…

Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

2018-01-01

This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Ars Poetica," Romanticism and English Education: Poetic Inheritances in the Senior Secondary English Curriculum in New South Wales, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Don

2013-01-01

Poetry, as a textual form for critical study and composition, continues to occupy a significant place in Australian senior secondary English syllabus documents and classrooms (cf. Carter, 2012). Indeed, within the senior secondary English syllabus in New South Wales (NSW), poetry remains one of the core mandatory types of texts for study by the…

Trends in prevalence of leisure time physical activity and inactivity: results from Australian National Health Surveys 1989 to 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Chau, Josephine; Chey, Tien; Burks-Young, Sarah; Engelen, Lina; Bauman, Adrian

2017-12-01

To examine trends in leisure time physical activity and inactivity in Australians aged 15 years or older from 1989 to 2011. We used data from six Australian National Health Surveys conducted from 1989/90 to 2011/12 in which physical activity was assessed using comparable questions. Analyses examined trends in the prevalence of sufficient physical activity (≥150 minutes/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity) and of inactivity (benefits from sufficient physical activity. Maintenance of consistent physical activity questions in future National Health Surveys will facilitate long term tracking of physical activity levels in the Australian population. © 2017 The Authors.

An estimation of intrapartum-related perinatal mortality rates for booked home births in England and Wales between 1994 and 2003.

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, R; Dougherty, M; Whittle, M

2008-04-01

The objective of this study was to obtain the best estimate of intrapartum-related perinatal mortality (IPPM) rates for booked home births. A population-based cross-sectional study. England and Wales. All births in England and Wales, including home births (intended or unintended) occurring between 1994 and 2003. All IPPM data were derived from the Confidential Enquiry into Maternal and Child Health. Denominators were derived by using unintended home births and transfer rates from home to hospital, from previous studies, with sensitivity analyses. IPPM rates were calculated for the three following subgroups: (a) the completed home birth group, (b) the transferred group and (c) the unintended home birth group. IPPM rate. The overall IPPM rate for England and Wales improved between 1994 and 2003. However, data to obtain a precise estimate of IPPM rate for booked home birth were not available. The average IPPM rate for all births in the study period was 0.79 per 1000 births (95% CI 0.77-0.81), and the estimated IPPM rate for booked home births was 1.28 or 0.74 per 1000 births, depending on the method of calculation (range 0.49-1.47). The IPPM rates for the completed home birth group appeared to be lower throughout the study period compared with the unintended home birth groups. Those women who had booked for a home birth, but later needed to transfer their care for a hospital birth, appeared to have the highest risk of IPPM in the study period. The results of this study need to be interpreted with caution due to inconsistencies occurring in the recorded data. However, the data do highlight two important features. First, they suggest that IPPM rates for home births do not appear to have improved over the study period examined, even though rates did so overall. Second, although the women who booked for home births and had their babies at home seemed to have a generally low IPPM rate, those who required their care to be transferred to hospital did not. Women who book for

[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

Assessment of vegetation trends in drylands from time series of earth observation data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fensholt, R.; Horion, S.; Tagesson, T.; Ehammer, A.; Grogan, K.; Tian, F.; Huber, S.; Verbesselt, J.; Prince, S.D.; Tucker, C.J.; Rasmussen, K.

2015-01-01

This chapter summarizes approaches to the detection of dryland vegetation change and methods for observing spatio-temporal trends from space. An overview of suitable long-term Earth Observation (EO) based datasets for assessment of global dryland vegetation trends is provided and a status map of

Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

Science.gov (United States)

Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

2018-02-01

Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

Do economic players shape up fashion trends?

OpenAIRE

Hasan, Syed Akif; Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms. Amber

2012-01-01

The behavior of following the most in vogue and admired styles of dressing has been there since the ancient times. With time, people have moved on with the rapid change in the surroundings. Both the genders acknowledge fashion. Fashion is an extension of regular clothing. This paper investigates the role of economical players which includes per capita income and inflations in shaping up the various trends/ fashion trends/ trends in clothing and their consumptions for Pakistan, India, United S...

Clinical diagnosis and chemical confirmation of ciguatera fish poisoning in New South Wales, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, Hazel; Zammit, Anthony; Manning, Jennifer; Shadbolt, Craig; Szabo, Lisa; Harwood, D Tim; McNabb, Paul; Turahui, John A; van den Berg, Debra J

2016-03-31

Ciguatera fish poisoning is common in tropical and sub-tropical areas and larger fish (> 10 kg) are more susceptible to toxin accumulation with age. Although the coastal climate of northern New South Wales is considered sub-tropical, prior to 2014 there has only been 1 documented outbreak of ciguatera fish poisoning from fish caught in the region. During February and March 2014, 2 outbreaks of ciguatera fish poisoning involved 4 and 9 individuals, respectively, both following consumption of Spanish mackerel from northern New South Wales coastal waters (Evans Head and Scotts Head). Affected individuals suffered a combination of gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms requiring hospital treatment. At least 1 individual was symptomatic up to 7 months later. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry detected the compound Pacific ciguatoxin-1B at levels up to 1.0 µg kg(-1) in fish tissue from both outbreaks. During April 2015, another outbreak of ciguatera fish poisoning was reported in 4 individuals. The fish implicated in the outbreak was caught further south than the 2014 outbreaks (South West Rocks). Fish tissue was unavailable for analysis; however, symptoms were consistent with ciguatera fish poisoning. To our knowledge, these cases are the southernmost confirmed sources of ciguatera fish poisoning in Australia. Educational outreach to the fishing community, in particular recreational fishers was undertaken after the Evans Head outbreak. This highlighted the outbreak, species of fish involved and the range of symptoms associated with ciguatera fish poisoning. Further assessment of the potential for ciguatoxins to occur in previously unaffected locations need to be considered in terms of food safety.

The impact of recent changes in smoke alarm legislation on residential fire injuries and smoke alarm ownership in New South Wales, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Lara A; Poulos, Roslyn G; Sherker, Shauna

2013-01-01

In 2006, New South Wales (NSW) state legislation changed from requiring smoke alarms in new houses only to all houses. We evaluated the impact of this legislative change on residential fire injury and smoke alarm ownership characteristics. Residential fire injuries for 2002 to 2010 were identified from hospitalization data for all hospitals in NSW. Data relating to smoke alarm ownership and demographic factors were obtained from the NSW Population Health Survey. Negative binomial regression analysis was used to analyze trends over time. Prior to the introduction of universal legislation, hospitalization rates were increasing slightly; however, following the introduction of legislation, hospitalization rates decreased by an estimated 36.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 16.7-55.8) annually. Smoke alarm ownership increased from 73.3% (95% CI, 72.5-74.2) prelegislation to 93.6% (95% CI, 93.1-94.2) 18 months postlegislation. Thirty percent of households reported testing their alarms regularly. Speaking a language other than English (relative risks [RRs], 1.82; 95% CI, 1.44-2.99), allowing smoking in the home (RR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.31-2.27), and being part of the most disadvantaged socioeconomic group (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.91) remain major risk factors for nonownership. Broadening the scope of state legislation has had a positive impact on residential fire-related hospitalizations and smoke alarm ownership. However, it is of concern that the legislation has been the least effective in increasing smoke alarm ownership among non-English-speaking households, in households where smoking is allowed, in low socioeconomic households, and that a high proportion of householders do not test their smoke alarms regularly. Targeted campaigns are needed to reach these high-risk groups and to ensure that smoke alarms are functional.

The impact of a community-led program promoting weight loss and healthy living in Aboriginal communities: the New South Wales Knockout Health Challenge.

Science.gov (United States)

Passmore, Erin; Shepherd, Brooke; Milat, Andrew; Maher, Louise; Hennessey, Kiel; Havrlant, Rachael; Maxwell, Michelle; Hodge, Wendy; Christian, Fiona; Richards, Justin; Mitchell, Jo

2017-12-13

Aboriginal people in Australia experience significant health burden from chronic disease. There has been limited research to identify effective healthy lifestyle programs to address risk factors for chronic disease among Aboriginal people. The Knockout Health Challenge is a community-led healthy lifestyle program for Aboriginal communities across New South Wales, Australia. An evaluation of the 2013 Knockout Health Challenge was undertaken. Participants' self-reported physical activity and diet were measured at four time points - at the start and end of the Challenge (via paper form), and 5 and 9 months after the Challenge (via telephone survey). Participants' weight was measured objectively at the start and end of the Challenge, and self-reported (via telephone survey) 5 and 9 months after the Challenge. Changes in body composition, physical activity and diet between time points were analysed using linear mixed models. As part of the telephone survey participants were also asked to identify other impacts of the Challenge; these were analysed descriptively (quantitative items) and thematically (qualitative items). A total of 586 people registered in 22 teams to participate in the Challenge. The mean weight at the start was 98.54kg (SD 22.4), and 94% of participants were overweight or obese. Among participants who provided data at all four time points (n=122), the mean weight loss from the start to the end of the Challenge was 2.3kg (95%CI -3.0 to -1.9, pChallenge was 2.3kg (95%CI -3.3 to -1.3, pChallenge, and 0.8kg/m 2 (95%CI -1.2 to -0.4, pChallenge, participants reported they were more physically active and had increased fruit and vegetable consumption compared with the start of the Challenge, and identified a range of other positive impacts. The Challenge was effective in reducing weight and promoting healthy lifestyles among Aboriginal people across New South Wales, and has potential to contribute to closing the health gap between Aboriginal and non

A retrospective time trend study of PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from the Faroe Islands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faengstroem, B.; Strid, A.; Athanassiadis, I.; Bergman, Aa. [Dept. of Environmental Chemistry, Stockholm Univ. (Sweden); Grandjean, P. [Inst. of Public Health, Univ. of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark); Weihe, P. [Faroese Hospital System, Torshavn (Denmark)

2004-09-15

The Faroe Islands are located quite far from the European continent and from industrial sources of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). However, the Faroese population may be exposed to these substances through contaminated food, via goods and products in their homes, and in their work environment. High trophic level marine species, including pilot whale and seabirds, such as fulmars, have been shown to accumulate high concentrations of organohalogen substances (OHS) like PCBs and PBDEs. Possibly due to dietary differences, wide differences exist in regard to PCB exposures among the Faroese. In a birth cohort from 1987, milk pools contained relatively high PCB concentrations between 1.9-2.5 {mu}g/g lipid weight (l.w.). In another cohort from 1994, serum from pregnant Faroese women was analyzed for PCB and OH-PCBs, with results ranging from 0.15 to 22 {mu}g/g l.w. and 0.02 to 1.8 {mu}g/g l.w., respectively. In a time trend study for PBDEs and PCBs in human milk from Sweden from the early 1970s to 1997, the PBDE concentrations showed a significant increase while the PCB levels showed a decrease. Human milk samples from 1997 to 2000 indicate a decrease for the PBDEs, mainly due to reduced concentrations of BDE-47. A similar trend has been seen in human milk from Japan. In Norway, PBDE in human milk increased from 1986 to 2001, with similar concentration levels as reported in Sweden and Japan. In the United States the PBDE levels reported in human milk are about 4 times higher than those seen in Europe and Japan. The aim of the present study was to determine PBDE and PCB concentrations in a temporal trend study with samples from 1987-1999 in human milk samples from the Faroe Islands.

United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

Science.gov (United States)

Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

2013-01-01

Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

2009-01-01

Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

Monitoring travellers from Ebola-affected countries in New South Wales, Australia: what is the impact on travellers?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jocelyn Chan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Amidst an Ebola virus disease (EVD epidemic of unprecedented magnitude in west Africa, concerns about the risk of importing EVD led to the introduction of programs for the screening and monitoring of travellers in a number of countries, including Australia. Emerging reports indicate that these programs are feasible to implement, however rigorous evaluations are not yet available. We aimed to evaluate the program of screening and monitoring travellers in New South Wales. Methods We conducted a mixed methods study to evaluate the program of screening and monitoring travellers in New South Wales. We extracted quantitative data from the Notifiable Conditions Information Management System database and obtained qualitative data from two separate surveys of public health staff and arrivals, conducted by phone. Results Between 1 October 2014 and 13 April 2015, public health staff assessed a total of 122 out of 123 travellers. Six people (5% developed symptoms compatible with EVD and required further assessment. None developed EVD. Aid workers required lower levels of support compared to other travellers. Many travellers experienced stigmatisation. Public health staff were successful in supporting travellers to recognise and manage symptoms. Conclusion We recommend that programs for monitoring travellers should be tailored to the needs of different populations and include specific strategies to remediate stigmatisation.

Education activities for environment and sustainability: A Snapshot of eight New South Wales councils

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Jade Herriman

2010-07-01

Full Text Available This paper describes in brief the findings of a research project undertaken by the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF at the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia. The research was commissioned by and undertaken on behalf of the New South Wales (NSW Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water (DECCW. The aim of the project was to investigate current practices of environmental and sustainability education and engagement within local government in NSW. The research was commissioned by DECCW as the preliminary phase of a larger project that the department is planning to undertake, commencing in 2010.

Temporal trends in non-occupational sedentary behaviours from Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006

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Chau Josephine Y

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current epidemiological data highlight the potential detrimental associations between sedentary behaviours and health outcomes, yet little is known about temporal trends in adult sedentary time. This study used time use data to examine population trends in sedentary behaviours in non-occupational domains and more specifically during leisure time. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of population representative data from the Australian Time Use Surveys 1992, 1997 and 2006 involving respondents aged 20 years and over with completed time use diaries for two days. Weighted samples for each survey year were: n = 5851 (1992, n = 6419 (1997 and n = 5505 (2006. We recoded all primary activities by domain (sleep, occupational, transport, leisure, household, education and intensity (sedentary, light, moderate. Adjusted multiple linear regressions tested for differences in time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours in 1992 and 1997 with 2006 as the reference year. Results Total non-occupational sedentary time was slightly lower in 1997 than in 2006 (mean = 894 min/2d and 906 min/2d, respectively; B = −11.2; 95%CI: -21.5, -0.9. Compared with 2006, less time was spent in 1997 in sedentary transport (B-6.7; 95%CI: -10.4, -3.0 and sedentary education (B = −6.3; 95%CI: -10.5, -2.2 while household and leisure sedentary time remained stable. Time engaged in different types of leisure-time sedentary activities changed between 1997 and 2006: leisure-time computer use increased (B = −26.7; 95%CI: -29.5, -23.8, while other leisure-time sedentary behaviours (e.g., reading, listening to music, hobbies and crafts showed small concurrent reductions. In 1992, leisure screen time was lower than in 2006: TV-viewing (B = −24.2; 95%CI: -31.2, -17.2, computer use (B = −35.3; 95%CI: -37.7, -32.8. In 2006, 90 % of leisure time was spent sedentary, of which 53 % was screen time. Conclusions Non

The inquiry into electricity supply in New South Wales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Owen, Anthony D. [School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School, Curtin University of Technology, Perth, WA 6845 (Australia)

2009-02-15

In May 2007, the Premier of New South Wales (NSW) announced the establishment of an Inquiry into Electricity Supply in that State to be undertaken by the author of this paper. Fundamental to the Inquiry was the perceived need for additional baseload generating capacity, the identification of the available technologies, carbon constraints and the policy options that would encourage the private sector to undertake the required investments. Although NSW is part of the competitive National Electricity Market, State-owned generators dominate baseload supply. In addition, the State operates three electricity retailing businesses, has a monopoly on transmission and distribution, and provides price stability for NSW residential consumers through the Electricity Tariff Equalisation Fund. Overall, therefore, the State dominates the industry and, not surprisingly, potential private investors are sceptical that its market roles may be based upon criteria other than the purely commercial. The Inquiry's report, which was publicly released in September 2007, recommended sale of all State assets in both electricity generation and retail. This paper provides a rationale for that recommendation. (author)

The inquiry into electricity supply in New South Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, Anthony D.

2009-01-01

In May 2007, the Premier of New South Wales (NSW) announced the establishment of an Inquiry into Electricity Supply in that State to be undertaken by the author of this paper. Fundamental to the Inquiry was the perceived need for additional baseload generating capacity, the identification of the available technologies, carbon constraints and the policy options that would encourage the private sector to undertake the required investments. Although NSW is part of the competitive National Electricity Market, State-owned generators dominate baseload supply. In addition, the State operates three electricity retailing businesses, has a monopoly on transmission and distribution, and provides price stability for NSW residential consumers through the Electricity Tariff Equalisation Fund. Overall, therefore, the State dominates the industry and, not surprisingly, potential private investors are sceptical that its market roles may be based upon criteria other than the purely commercial. The Inquiry's report, which was publicly released in September 2007, recommended sale of all State assets in both electricity generation and retail. This paper provides a rationale for that recommendation

Personality disorder and offending behaviour: findings from the national survey of male prisoners in England and Wales

OpenAIRE

Roberts, Amanda D.L.; Coid, Jeremy W.

2009-01-01

Previous studies have related mental disorder and antisocial personality disorder to criminal behaviour, but little is known about the associations with other personality disorders. The aim of this study was to examine independent associations between offending behaviour over the lifetime and personality disorder in a representative sample of male offenders. A two-stage survey was carried out among prisoners in all prisons in England and Wales. DSM-IV personality disorder was measured using S...

Birth order of twins and risk of perinatal death related to delivery in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, 1994-2003: retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Gordon C S; Fleming, Kate M; White, Ian R

2007-03-17

To determine the effect of birth order on the risk of perinatal death in twin pregnancies. Retrospective cohort study. England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, 1994-2003. 1377 twin pregnancies with one intrapartum stillbirth or neonatal death from causes other than congenital abnormality and one surviving infant. The risk of perinatal death in the first and second twin estimated with conditional logistic regression. There was no association between birth order and the risk of death overall (odds ratio 1.0, 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.1). However, there was a highly significant interaction with gestational age (Pbirth order and the risk of death among infants born before 36 weeks' gestation but there was an increased risk of death among second twins born at term (2.3, 1.7 to 3.2, Pbirths, there was a trend (P=0.1) towards a greater risk of the second twin dying from anoxia among those delivered vaginally (4.1, 1.8 to 9.5) compared with those delivered by caesarean section (1.8, 0.9 to 3.6). In this cohort, compared with first twins, second twins born at term were at increased risk of perinatal death related to delivery. Vaginally delivered second twins had a fourfold risk of death caused by intrapartum anoxia.

Trends in rates of mental illness in homicide perpetrators.

Science.gov (United States)

Swinson, Nicola; Flynn, Sandra M; While, David; Roscoe, Alison; Kapur, Navneet; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny

2011-06-01

The rise in homicides by those with serious mental illness is of concern, although this increase may not be continuing. To examine rates of mental illness among homicide perpetrators. A national consecutive case series of homicide perpetrators in England and Wales from 1997 to 2006. Rates of mental disorder were based on data from psychiatric reports, contact with psychiatric services, diminished responsibility verdict and hospital disposal. Of the 5884 homicides notified to the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Homicide by People with Mental Illness between 1997 and 2006, the number of homicide perpetrators with schizophrenia increased at a rate of 4% per year, those with psychotic symptoms at the time of the offence increased by 6% per year. The number of verdicts of diminished responsibility decreased but no change was found in the number of perpetrators receiving a hospital order disposal. The likeliest explanation for the rise in homicide by people with psychosis is the misuse of drugs and/or alcohol, which our data show increased at a similar magnitude to homicides by those with psychotic symptoms. However, we are unable to demonstrate a causal association. Although the Poisson regression provides evidence of an upward trend in homicide by people with serious mental illness between 1997 and 2006, the number of homicides fell in the final 2 years of data collection, so these findings should be treated with caution. There appears to be a concomitant increase in drug misuse over the period, which may account for this rise in homicide. However, an increase in the number of people in contact with mental health services may suggest that access to mental health services is improving. Previous studies have used court verdicts such as diminished responsibility as a proxy measure of mental disorder. Our data indicate that this does not reflect accurately the prevalence of mental disorder in this population.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

Science.gov (United States)

Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2015-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

Veterinary problems of endurance horses in England and Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagy, A; Dyson, S J; Murray, J K

2017-05-01

Several studies have shown that a considerable proportion of horses are eliminated from endurance rides due to lameness and metabolic problems. Limited information is available on specific veterinary issues in endurance horses and there are no descriptive data on veterinary problems in a large population of endurance horses. The aim of this study was to describe veterinary problems occurring in endurance horses in England and Wales, the regions of the United Kingdom where endurance rides are organised and regulated by Endurance Great Britain (Endurance GB). A comprehensive online self-completed questionnaire was used for data collection (30th December 2015-29th February 2016) All members of Endurance GB who were the main rider of one or more endurance horses were eligible to participate. From the target population of 1209 horses, 190 questionnaires were completed by riders, resulting in a 15.7% response rate. The most common rider-reported veterinary problem was lameness, affecting 152/190 (80.0%) of endurance horses at some point during their careers and 101/190 (53.2%) of horses in the previous 12 months. Detailed information on the most recent episode of lameness was available for 147 horses. Seventy-six percent of these lameness episodes (112/147) had been initially identified by a veterinarian, but only 52% of these lameness episodes were investigated further by a veterinarian, despite the high proportion of horses affected by lameness and the proportion of horses with recurrent lameness episodes. The second most common veterinary problem was thoracolumbar region pain, followed by non-specific cough, skin disease and colic. Education of endurance riders may improve the number, quality and timing of veterinary investigations, especially for lameness and thoracolumbar region pain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Zircon U-Pb dating of early Palaeozoic monzonitic intrusives from the Goonumbla area, New South Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Butera, K.M.; Williams, I.S.; Blevin, P.L.; Simpson, C.J.

2001-01-01

Zircon U-Pb ages measured on four small intrusions into the succession of Ordovician volcanic rocks that hosts North Parkes Cu-Au mine northwest of Parkes. New South Wales. place limits on the age of the volcanic sequence. The basal Nelungaloo Volcanics are constrained by a cross-cutting monzodiorite to be ≥484.3 ± 2.9Ma (Early Ordovician). Similarly. the overlying basal Goonumbla Volcanics are constrained by another cross-cutting monzodiorite to be ≥450.8 ± 4.2Ma (Middle Ordovician). A later generation of monzonites intruded into the middle and upper Goonumbla Volcanics yield ages of 439.1 ± 4.5 and 438.9 ± 4.7 Ma (Siluro-Ordovician). These various ages are consistent with the ages of fossiliferous sediments within the volcanic sequence. and indicate that both the intrusive and volcanic rocks span an appreciable period of time-neither are the product of a single magmatic episode. Intrusion of the youngest monzonites and mineralisation was virtually contemporaneous. Copyright (2001) Geological Society of Australia

In search of functional association from time-series microarray data based on the change trend and level of gene expression

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Zeng An-Ping

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing availability of time-series expression data opens up new possibilities to study functional linkages of genes. Present methods used to infer functional linkages between genes from expression data are mainly based on a point-to-point comparison. Change trends between consecutive time points in time-series data have been so far not well explored. Results In this work we present a new method based on extracting main features of the change trend and level of gene expression between consecutive time points. The method, termed as trend correlation (TC, includes two major steps: 1, calculating a maximal local alignment of change trend score by dynamic programming and a change trend correlation coefficient between the maximal matched change levels of each gene pair; 2, inferring relationships of gene pairs based on two statistical extraction procedures. The new method considers time shifts and inverted relationships in a similar way as the local clustering (LC method but the latter is merely based on a point-to-point comparison. The TC method is demonstrated with data from yeast cell cycle and compared with the LC method and the widely used Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC based clustering method. The biological significance of the gene pairs is examined with several large-scale yeast databases. Although the TC method predicts an overall lower number of gene pairs than the other two methods at a same p-value threshold, the additional number of gene pairs inferred by the TC method is considerable: e.g. 20.5% compared with the LC method and 49.6% with the PCC method for a p-value threshold of 2.7E-3. Moreover, the percentage of the inferred gene pairs consistent with databases by our method is generally higher than the LC method and similar to the PCC method. A significant number of the gene pairs only inferred by the TC method are process-identity or function-similarity pairs or have well-documented biological

Social equity issues in the distribution of feed-in tariff policy benefits: A cross sectional analysis from England and Wales using spatial census and policy data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grover, David; Daniels, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The feed-in tariff has become a popular policy instrument globally for deploying clean energy, often involving substantial public spending commitments. Yet relatively little attention has been paid to how payments made under this policy type get distributed across socioeconomic groups. This paper links information on individual domestic photovoltaic (PV) installations registered under the feed-in tariff for England and Wales, to spatially-organised census data. This makes it possible to observe which socioeconomic groups are benefitting most and least under the policy. Comparing the observed benefit distribution to a counterfactual distribution of perfect equality, a moderate to high level of inequality is found. Cross-sectional regressions suggest that settlement density, home ownership status, physical dwelling type, local information spillovers, and household social class shaped this outcome. Greater sensitivity to these factors in policy design could improve distributional outcomes under feed-in tariff policies in England and Wales, and beyond. - Highlights: • Feed-in tariffs are subsidies involving substantial public spending commitments. • Payment distribution under the feed-in tariff in England and Wales has been substantially unequal. • Linking policy data to spatial census data can measure the degree of inequality. • Policy design that is more sensitive to participants’ socioeconomic characteristics can improve distributional outcomes.

“Unothering” Wales. Domestication as a tourist marketing strategy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Igor Prieto Arranz

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Los turistas que visitan el País de Gales son mayoritariamente británicos y su organización nacional de turismo, la Wales Tourist Board, aunque ciertamente está intentando aumentar su cuota de visitantes extranjeros, presta especial atención a aquellos materiales promocionales destinados a una audiencia nacional británica. Dichos materiales, que han sido distinguidos con varios premios en el sector, serán el objeto del presente trabajo, que resalta en especial sus dos características principales: por una parte, su naturaleza intertextual “empotrada”; y por otra, la domesticación de todo lo que entiende por típicamente galés. Como resultado, Gales se acaba convirtiendo en una versión “agradablemente diferente” e incluso perfeccionada de Inglaterra, un claro indicador de que a quien se tiene en mente principalmente es al potencial turista inglés

Googling trends in conservation biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Food Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwenk, Nancy E.

1991-01-01

An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

Time trend tendency (1988-2014 years) of organochlorine pesticide levels in the adipose tissue of Veracruz inhabitants.

Science.gov (United States)

Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Waliszewski, Stefan M; Ruiz-Ramos, Rubén; Del Carmen Martinez-Valenzuela, María

2018-03-10

The population that lives in areas where organochlorine pesticides were spread in the past is still exposed to them through contaminated food, particulate matter, and vapors. Due to their lipophilic properties and resistance to metabolic reactions, they accumulate in tissues and fluids rich in lipids. The aim of the study was to monitor the concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in forensic adipose tissue samples of adult inhabitants of Veracruz City, Mexico, and compare their time trend levels from 1988 to 2014. During the study, hexachlorobenzene (HCB); lindane; β-hexachorocyclohexane; p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (pp'DDE); p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (p,p'-DDT); and o,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (o,p'-DDT) were determined. Our survey was divided into two periods: first, from the years 1988 to 1999, during which DDT was allowed to fight malaria and dengue vectors and the second from the years 2001 to 2014, after the DDT ban. A total of 1435 samples were analyzed. There were substantial differences in the forecasted time trend values of p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT in human adipose tissue samples in the two different periods. During the first period, p,p'-DDE decrease time trend was 1.198 mg/kg on lipid base per year; for the second one, decrease was 0.128 mg/kg on lipid base per year. p,p'-DDT decreased 0.507 mg/kg on lipid base during the first period and 0.039 mg/kg on lipid base for the second. The different concentrations may be explained by the cessation of fresh exposure after the first period and a more equilibrated decontamination tendency during the second period. This model was useful to show the decrease in the concentration of pesticides in human adipose tissue samples.

Unilateral and collusive market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.; Martoccia, M.

2005-01-01

This paper uses a detailed market microsimulation of agent bidding behaviour to provide insights into the evolution of generator market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales. We identify an evolution, as market concentration declined, from unilateral market power dominance in the early years (1990-1996) to tacit collusive coordination towards the end (1996-2001), whereupon the pool was replaced by voluntary bilateral trading. The microsimulation analysis does not provide closed form solutions for market equilibrium nor a multi-agent co-evolutionary set of scenarios, but provides a diagnostic aid in determining when market concentration may decline to the point at which price leadership gives way to tacit collusion as means of exercising market power. (author)

An Analysis of the Stakeholder Model of Public Boards and the Case of School Governing Bodies in England and Wales

Science.gov (United States)

Connolly, Michael; Farrell, Catherine; James, Christopher

2017-01-01

This article analyses the stakeholder model of boards that is widely used in public and third sector institutions in England and Wales. The central tenet of this model is that such institutions should be strategically led by individuals who are representative of and from the groups that have an interest in them. The article focuses in particular…

Time trends in the levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pine bark, litter, and soil after a forest fire.

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Sung-Deuk

2014-02-01

Forest fires are known as an important natural source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but time trends of PAH levels and patterns in various environmental compartments after forest fires have not been thoroughly studied yet. In this study, 16 US-EPA priority PAHs were analyzed for pine bark, litter, and soil samples collected one, three, five, and seven months after a forest fire in Pohang, South Korea. At the first sampling event, the highest levels of ∑16 PAHs were measured for the three types of samples (pine bark: 5,920 ng/g, litter: 1,540 ng/g, and soil: 133 ng/g). Thereafter, there were apparent decreasing trends in PAH levels; the control samples showed the lowest levels (pine bark: 124 ng/g, litter: 75 ng/g, and soil: 26 ng/g). The levels of PAHs in the litter and soil samples normalized by organic carbon (OC) fractions also showed decreasing trends, indicating a direct influence of the forest fire. Among the 16 target PAHs, naphthalene was a dominant compound for all types of samples. Light PAHs with 2-4 rings significantly contributed to the total concentration, and their contribution decreased in the course of time. Runoff by heavy precipitation, evaporation, and degradation of PAHs in the summer were probably the main reasons for the observed time trends. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratio also supported that the forest fire was indeed an important source of PAHs in the study area. © 2013.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Time-trend of melanoma screening practice by primary care physicians: a meta-regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Valachis, Antonis; Mauri, Davide; Karampoiki, Vassiliki; Polyzos, Nikolaos P; Cortinovis, Ivan; Koukourakis, Georgios; Zacharias, Georgios; Xilomenos, Apostolos; Tsappi, Maria; Casazza, Giovanni

2009-01-01

To assess whether the proportion of primary care physicians implementing full body skin examination (FBSE) to screen for melanoma changed over time. Meta-regression analyses of available data. MEDLINE, ISI, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Fifteen studies surveying 10,336 physicians were included in the analyses. Overall, 15%-82% of them reported to perform FBSE to screen for melanoma. The proportion of physicians using FBSE screening tended to decrease by 1.72% per year (P =0.086). Corresponding annual changes in European, North American, and Australian settings were -0.68% (P =0.494), -2.02% (P =0.044), and +2.59% (P =0.010), respectively. Changes were not influenced by national guide-lines. Considering the increasing incidence of melanoma and other skin malignancies, as well as their relative potential consequences, the FBSE implementation time-trend we retrieved should be considered a worrisome phenomenon.

Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

OpenAIRE

Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

2013-01-01

In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

Owners' insights into private practice dentistry in New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, J E; Marchant, T

2010-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate aspects of practice ownership including debt on graduation, the time period between graduation and acquiring practice ownership and small business skills. A mail survey of 400 dentists with practice ownership, in New South Wales (NSW) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), addressed demographics, setting up practice, technology and business management. Most respondents were male and nearly half had 20 years of practice ownership. Dentists agreed with the need to be taught small business management skills. Average debt on graduation was AUD$18 000 and the figure was higher for post 1995 graduates. On average, it took five years to acquire some form of practice ownership, but nearly half acquired ownership within three years. Few favoured opening a new practice. Staff were the most frequently nominated contributors to a successful practice, with fees, profit and parking noted least frequently. There was no question that these experienced dentists thought small business skills should be taught to the dental fraternity. Given the significance of staff to a successful practice, dentists may need to learn more about advanced human resource management including professional development and performance management. © 2010 Australian Dental Association.

Mobile eHealth interventions for obesity: a timely opportunity to leverage convergence trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Tufano, James T; Karras, Bryant T

2005-12-20

Obesity is often cited as the most prevalent chronic health condition and highest priority public health problem in the United States. There is a limited but growing body of evidence suggesting that mobile eHealth behavioral interventions, if properly designed, may be effective in promoting and sustaining successful weight loss and weight maintenance behavior changes. This paper reviews the current literature on the successes and failures of public health, provider-administered, and self-managed behavioral health interventions for weight loss. The prevailing theories of health behavior change are discussed from the perspective of how this knowledge can serve as an evidence base to inform the design of mobile eHealth weight loss interventions. Tailored informational interventions, which, in recent years, have proven to be the most effective form of conventional health behavior intervention for weight loss, are discussed. Lessons learned from the success of conventional tailored informational interventions and the early successes of desktop computer-assisted self-help weight management interventions are presented, as are design principles suggested by Social Cognitive Theory and the Social Marketing Model. Relevant computing and communications technology convergence trends are also discussed. The recent trends in rapid advancement, convergence, and public adoption of Web-enabled cellular telephone and wireless personal digital assistant (PDA) devices provide timely opportunities to deliver the mass customization capabilities, reach, and interactivity required for the development, administration, and adoption of effective population-level eHealth tailored informational interventions for obesity.

Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, V.D.J.; Lloyd, P.; Terry, J.A.; Williams, R.J.

2015-01-01

In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk. - Highlights: • Risk assessment for the 2050's including climate change and population changes. • Three climate scenarios considered (changes in river flow and river temperature). • Increased risk from fish intersex across all scenarios in England and Wales. • Population is the main factor causing the risk increase for the 2050's. - The predicted increase in risk of endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales in the 2050's is mainly due to human population increase rather than climate change

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

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Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Psychological Types of Female Primary School Teachers in Anglican State-Maintained Schools in England and Wales: Implications for Continuing Professional Development

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Francis, Leslie J.; Lankshear, David W.; Robbins, Mandy

2011-01-01

A sample of 221 female primary school teachers in Anglican state-maintained schools in England and Wales completed the Francis Psychological Type Scales (FPTS). The data demonstrated clear preferences for Extraversion (E) over Introversion (I), for Sensing (S) over Intuition (N), for Feeling (F) over Thinking (T) and for Judging (J) over…

Time Trends over 16 Years in Incidence-Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorders across the Lifespan Based on Nationwide Danish Register Data

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Jensen, Christina Mohr; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Lauritsen, Marlene Briciet

2014-01-01

This study investigated time trends and associated factors of incidence rates of diagnosed autism spectrum disorders (ASD) across the lifespan from 1995 to 2010, using data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Registry. First time diagnosis of childhood autism, atypical autism, Asperger's syndrome, or pervasive developmental…

Australian doctors and the visual arts. Part 1. Doctor-artists in New South Wales.

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Hamilton, D G

Since Europeans first settled in Australia their doctors have been interested in the visual arts. Some have been hobby painters and sculptors, a few with great distinction. Some have been gallery supporters and administrators. A few have written art books. Some have been outstanding photographers. Of the larger number of doctors who have collected art, only those are mentioned who have made their collections public or have made important donations to galleries. The subject of Australian doctors and the visual arts will be discussed in six articles in this and following issues of the journal. The first deals with doctor-artists in New South Wales.

Trends in US home food preparation and consumption: analysis of national nutrition surveys and time use studies from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008.

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Smith, Lindsey P; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

2013-04-11

It has been well-documented that Americans have shifted towards eating out more and cooking at home less. However, little is known about whether these trends have continued into the 21st century, and whether these trends are consistent amongst low-income individuals, who are increasingly the target of public health programs that promote home cooking. The objective of this study is to examine how patterns of home cooking and home food consumption have changed from 1965 to 2008 by socio-demographic groups. This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from 6 nationally representative US dietary surveys and 6 US time-use studies conducted between 1965 and 2008. Subjects are adults aged 19 to 60 years (n= 38,565 for dietary surveys and n=55,424 for time-use surveys). Weighted means of daily energy intake by food source, proportion who cooked, and time spent cooking were analyzed for trends from 1965-1966 to 2007-2008 by gender and income. T-tests were conducted to determine statistical differences over time. The percentage of daily energy consumed from home food sources and time spent in food preparation decreased significantly for all socioeconomic groups between 1965-1966 and 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001), with the largest declines occurring between 1965 and 1992. In 2007-2008, foods from the home supply accounted for 65 to 72% of total daily energy, with 54 to 57% reporting cooking activities. The low income group showed the greatest decline in the proportion cooking, but consumed more daily energy from home sources and spent more time cooking than high income individuals in 2007-2008 (p ≤ 0.001). US adults have decreased consumption of foods from the home supply and reduced time spent cooking since 1965, but this trend appears to have leveled off, with no substantial decrease occurring after the mid-1990's. Across socioeconomic groups, people consume the majority of daily energy from the home food supply, yet only slightly more than half spend any time cooking on a given

Results of national lake surveys 1995 in Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Russian Kola, Russian Karelia, Scotland and Wales

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Henriksen, Arne; Skjelkvaale, Brit Lisa [Norsk Inst. for Vannforskning, Oslo (Norway); Mannio, Jaakko [FEI, (Finland)] [and others

1997-12-31

Beginning in 1995, national lake surveys were conducted in the above North European countries. This report provides the first united evaluation of lake water chemistry in Northern Europe. It was found that, except for Denmark, the water was characterized by low ionic strength and had low content of nitrogen and phosphorus. In Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russian Kola and Karelia more than 50% of the lakes had low critical load (CL) values for sulphur acidity (S), while Scotland, Wales and Denmark had very few lakes with low CL for S. The highest percentage (27%) of lakes with exceedence of CL for S was found in Norway, while the values for Russian Kola, Sweden and Finland were 17%, 9% and 9%, respectively. In Scotland and Wales, critical loads for sulphur acidity were exceeded in 1% of the total lake population. For Denmark and Russian Karelia, too few lakes were sampled to give reliable estimates. This adds up to approximately 22000 lakes in Northern Europe where CL for S was exceeded. However, this number of lakes is a minimum as exceedence of CL for N was not included in the calculation due to lack of catchment data. 26 refs., 21 figs., 13 tabs.

Autism characteristics and behavioural disturbances in ~ 500 children with Down's syndrome in England and Wales.

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Warner, Georgina; Moss, Joanna; Smith, Patrick; Howlin, Patricia

2014-08-01

Recent research shows that a significant minority of children with Down's syndrome (DS) also meet diagnostic criteria for an autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present study investigated what proportion of children aged 6-15 years with a confirmed diagnosis of DS in England and Wales display autistic-type behaviours, and explored the characteristics of this group of children. The Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ) was used to screen for autism characteristics and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) to explore behavioural difficulties. The proportion of children who met the cut-off score for ASD on the SCQ (total score ≥ 15) was 37.7% (95% CI: 33.4-42.0%); for autism (total score ≥ 22) the proportion was 16.5% (95% CI: 13.2-19.8%). Children who met the cut-off for ASD were significantly more likely to be reported as having emotional symptoms, conduct problems and hyperactivity on the SDQ than children who scored well below cut-off (total score autism characteristics on the SCQ was atypical compared with individuals with idiopathic ASD. The pervasiveness of ASD in children with DS in England and Wales is substantially higher than in the general population. These children also experience significantly greater behavioural problems than children with DS only. Early detection of autism characteristics is important for appropriate intervention. However, the unusual profile of autism characteristics in this group may affect the recognition of the disorder and hinder the implementation of appropriate interventions. © 2014 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

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Nigatu Tilahun H

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

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Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

2015-01-01

Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

Enduring love? Attitudes to family and inheritance law in England and Wales.

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Douglas, Gillian; Woodward, Hilary; Humphrey, Alun; Mills, Lisa; Morrell, Gareth

2011-01-01

This paper reports on the findings from a large-scale study of public attitudes to inheritance law, particularly the rules on intestacy. It argues that far from the assumption that the family' is in terminal decline, people in England and Wales still view their most important relationships, at least for the purposes of inheritance law, as centred on a narrow, nuclear family model. However, there is also widespread acceptance of re-partnering and cohabitation, producing generally high levels of support for including cohabitants in the intestacy rules and for ensuring that children from former relationships are protected. We argue that these views are underpinned by a continuing sense of responsibility to the members of one's nuclear family, arising from notions of sharing and commitment, dependency and support, and a sense of lineage.

Trends in knee arthroscopy and subsequent arthroplasty in an Australian population: a retrospective cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background Knee arthroscopy is a common procedure in orthopaedic surgery. In recent times the efficacy of this procedure has been questioned with a number of randomized controlled trials demonstrating a lack of effect in the treatment of osteoarthritis. Consequently, a number of trend studies have been conducted, exploring rates of knee arthroscopy and subsequent conversion to Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) with varying results. Progression to TKA is seen as an indicator of lack of effect of primary knee arthroscopy. The aim of this paper is to measure overall rates of knee arthroscopy and the proportion of these patients that undergo subsequent total knee arthroplasty (TKA) within 24 months, and to measure trends over time in an Australian population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all adults undergoing a knee arthroscopy and TKA in all hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 2000 and 2008. Datasets obtained from the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL) were analysed using negative binomial regression. Admission rates for knee arthroscopy were determined by year, age, gender and hospital status (public versus private) and readmission for TKA within 24 months was calculated. Results There was no significant change in the overall rate of knee arthroscopy between 2000 and 2008 (-0.68%, 95% CI: -2.80 to 1.49). The rates declined in public hospitals (-1.25%, 95% CI: -2.39 to -0.10) and remained relatively steady in private hospitals (0.42%, 95% CI: -1.43 to 0.60). The proportion of patients 65 years or over undergoing TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy was 21.5%. After adjusting for age and gender, there was a significant decline in rates of TKA within 24 months of knee arthroscopy for all patients (-1.70%, 95% CI:-3.13 to -0.24), patients admitted to private hospitals (-2.65%, 95% CI: -4.06 to -1.23) and patients aged ≥65 years (-3.12%, 95% CI: -5.02 to -1.18). Conclusions Rates of knee arthroscopy are not increasing

Inter-fraction bladder filling variations and time trends for cervical cancer patients assessed with a portable 3-dimensional ultrasound bladder scanner

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, Rozilawati; Hoogeman, Mischa S.; Quint, Sandra; Mens, Jan Willem; Pree, Ilse de; Heijmen, Ben J.M.

2008-01-01

Background and Purpose: For cervical cancer patients, bladder filling variations may result in inadequate EBRT target coverage, unless large safety margins are used. For a group of patients who received full bladder instructions, inter-fraction variations and time trends in bladder volume were quantified, and a 3D ultrasound (US) scanner was tested for on-line bladder volume measurements. Methods and materials: For 24 patients, the bladder volume was measured with US at the time of the planning CT scan, and twice weekly during the course of RT. Comparisons of US with planning CT were used to assess the bladder scanner accuracy. Patients were treated in prone on a belly board, EPID images were acquired to correlate set-up errors with bladder filling variations. Results: Measured US and CT bladder volumes were strongly correlated (R = 0.97, slope 1.1 ± 0.1). The population mean bladder volume at planning of 378 ± 209 ml (1 SD) reduced to 109 ± 88 ml (1 SD) in week 6, a reduction by 71% (average reduction 46 ml/week), revealing a large inter-fraction time trend. Intra-patient variation in bladder volume during RT was 168 ml (1 SD) (range 70-266 ml). Rotation around the LR axis was significantly correlated with bladder volume changes. Conclusions: Despite a full bladder instruction, bladder volumes reduced dramatically during treatment, implying large time trends in target position of these patients. The portable US scanner provides a quick and reliable measurement of the bladder volume, which might assist future online treatment adaptation