WorldWideScience

Sample records for volcano hazards assessment

  1. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Miller, Thomas P.

    1999-01-01

    Iliamna Volcano is a 3,053-meter-high, ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano in the southwestern Cook Inlet region about 225 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and about 100 kilometers northwest of Homer. Historical eruptions of Iliamna Volcano have not been positively documented; however, the volcano regularly emits steam and gas, and small, shallow earthquakes are often detected beneath the summit area. The most recent eruptions of the volcano occurred about 300 years ago, and possibly as recently as 90-140 years ago. Prehistoric eruptions have generated plumes of volcanic ash, pyroclastic flows, and lahars that extended to the volcano flanks and beyond. Rock avalanches from the summit area have occurred numerous times in the past. These avalanches flowed several kilometers down the flanks and at least two large avalanches transformed to cohesive lahars. The number and distribution of known volcanic ash deposits from Iliamna Volcano indicate that volcanic ash clouds from prehistoric eruptions were significantly less voluminous and probably less common relative to ash clouds generated by eruptions of other Cook Inlet volcanoes. Plumes of volcanic ash from Iliamna Volcano would be a major hazard to jet aircraft using Anchorage International Airport and other local airports, and depending on wind direction, could drift at least as far as the Kenai Peninsula and beyond. Ashfall from future eruptions could disrupt oil and gas operations and shipping activities in Cook Inlet. Because Iliamna Volcano has not erupted for several hundred years, a future eruption could involve significant amounts of ice and snow that could lead to the formation of large lahars and downstream flooding. The greatest hazards in order of importance are described below and shown on plate 1.

  2. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Augustine Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waythomas, Christopher F.; Waitt, Richard B.

    1998-01-01

    Augustine Volcano is a 1250-meter high stratovolcano in southwestern Cook Inlet about 280 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and within about 300 kilometers of more than half of the population of Alaska. Explosive eruptions have occurred six times since the early 1800s (1812, 1883, 1935, 1964-65, 1976, and 1986). The 1976 and 1986 eruptions began with an initial series of vent-clearing explosions and high vertical plumes of volcanic ash followed by pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars on the volcano flanks. Unlike some prehistoric eruptions, a summit edifice collapse and debris avalanche did not occur in 1812, 1935, 1964-65, 1976, or 1986. However, early in the 1883 eruption, a portion of the volcano summit broke loose forming a debris avalanche that flowed to the sea. The avalanche initiated a small tsunami reported on the Kenai Peninsula at English Bay, 90 kilometers east of the volcano. Plumes of volcanic ash are a major hazard to jet aircraft using Anchorage International and other local airports. Ashfall from future eruptions could disrupt oil and gas operations and shipping activities in Cook Inlet. Eruptions similar to the historical and prehistoric eruptions are likely in Augustine's future.

  3. Tephra hazard assessment at Concepción Volcano, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaini, C.; Folch, A.; Navarro, M.

    2012-03-01

    Concepción volcano in Ometepe Island, Nicaragua, is a highly active volcano with a rich historical record of explosive eruptions. Tephra fallout from Concepción jeopardizes the surrounding populations, whereas volcanic ash clouds threat aerial navigation at a regional level. The assessment of these hazards is important for territorial planning and adoption of mitigation measures. Here we compute probabilistic hazard maps for Concepción volcano considering three different eruptive scenarios based on past reference events. Previous geological analysis is used to quantify the eruption parameters of the reference events. We account for uncertainties in the definition of the scenarios trough probability density functions. A representative meteorological dataset is created for each scenario by running the WRF-ARW mesoscale meteorological model over a typical meteorological year, defined in terms of wind speed and direction at a given atmospheric height. Tephra transport and deposition under different eruption and wind conditions is modelled using the FALL3D dispersion model. For each scenario, simulations are combined to build probabilistic hazard maps for critical values of tephra load and for threshold values of airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels. Results are useful to identify the expected impacts for each eruption type and aim at improving the assessment and management of risk in the region.

  4. Volcano hazards assessment for the Lassen region, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clynne, Michael A.; Robinson, Joel E.; Nathenson, Manuel; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

    2012-01-01

    The Lassen region of the southernmost Cascade Range is an active volcanic area. At least 70 eruptions have occurred in the past 100,000 years, including 3 in the past 1,000 years, most recently in 1915. The record of past eruptions and the present state of the underlying magmatic and hydrothermal systems make it clear that future eruptions within the Lassen Volcanic Center are very likely. Although the annual probability of an eruption is small, the consequences of some types of eruptions could be severe. Compared to those of a typical Cascade composite volcano, eruptive vents at Lassen Volcanic Center and the surrounding area are widely dispersed, extending in a zone about 50 km wide from the southern boundary of Lassen Volcanic National Park north to the Pit River. This report presents a discussion of volcanic and other geologic hazards in the Lassen area and delineates hazards zones for different types of volcanic activity. Owing to its presence in a national park with significant visitorship, its explosive behavior, and its proximity to regional infrastructure, the Lassen Volcanic Center has been designated a "high threat volcano" in the U.S. Geological Survey National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity and ground deformation, and the Lassen area has a network of seismometers and Global Positioning System stations in place to monitor for early warning of volcanic activity.

  5. What Are Volcano Hazards?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Sheet 002-97 Revised March 2008 What Are Volcano Hazards? Volcanoes give rise to numerous geologic and ... as far as 15 miles from the volcano. Volcano Landslides A landslide or debris avalanche is a ...

  6. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  7. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  8. Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Constantinescu, Robert; Biass, Sébastien; Tonini, Roberto

    2014-02-01

    We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study

  9. Numerical tsunami hazard assessment of the submarine volcano Kick 'em Jenny in high resolution are

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondin, Frédéric; Dorville, Jean-Francois Marc; Robertson, Richard E. A.

    2016-04-01

    Landslide-generated tsunami are infrequent phenomena that can be potentially highly hazardous for population located in the near-field domain of the source. The Lesser Antilles volcanic arc is a curved 800 km chain of volcanic islands. At least 53 flank collapse episodes have been recognized along the arc. Several of these collapses have been associated with underwater voluminous deposits (volume > 1 km3). Due to their momentum these events were likely capable of generating regional tsunami. However no clear field evidence of tsunami associated with these voluminous events have been reported but the occurrence of such an episode nowadays would certainly have catastrophic consequences. Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ) is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Arc (LAA), with a current edifice volume estimated to 1.5 km3. It is the southernmost edifice of the LAA with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. The volcano appears to have undergone three episodes of flank failure. Numerical simulations of one of these episodes associated with a collapse volume of ca. 4.4 km3 and considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami with amplitude of 30 m. In the present study we applied a detailed hazard assessment on KeJ submarine volcano (KeJ) form its collapse to its waves impact on high resolution coastal area of selected island of the LAA in order to highlight needs to improve alert system and risk mitigation. We present the assessment process of tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (i.e. run-up) and flood dynamic (i.e. duration, height, speed...) at the coast of LAA island in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. After quantification of potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA, VolcanoFit 2.0 & SSAP 4.5) based on seven geomechanical models, the tsunami source have been simulate by St-Venant equations-based code

  10. UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F.V. Perry

    2005-10-13

    drill holes are planned with the goal of sampling each geographic subpopulation of magnetic anomalies in the region (Figure 1). This will result in a more complete characterization of the location, age, volume and composition of buried basaltic features for the purpose of updating the volcanic hazard assessment. Smith and Keenan (2005) suggested that volcanic hazard estimates might be 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than estimated by the DOE expert elicitation in 1996, based on (1) a proposed relationship between recurrence rates in the YMR and the Reveille-Lunar Crater volcanic field to the north, and (2) the implication that a number of so-far-undiscovered buried volcanoes would have a significant impact on hazard estimates. This article presents the new aeromagnetic data and an interpretation of the data that suggests magnetic anomalies nearest the proposed repository site represent buried Miocene basalt that will likely have only a minor impact on the volcanic hazard.

  11. U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program—Assess, forecast, prepare, engage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovall, Wendy K.; Wilkins, Aleeza M.; Mandeville, Charles W.; Driedger, Carolyn L.

    2016-07-13

    At least 170 volcanoes in 12 States and 2 territories have erupted in the past 12,000 years and have the potential to erupt again. Consequences of eruptions from U.S. volcanoes can extend far beyond the volcano’s immediate area. Many aspects of our daily life are vulnerable to volcano hazards, including air travel, regional power generation and transmission infrastructure, interstate transportation, port facilities, communications infrastructure, and public health. The U.S. Geological Survey has the Federal responsibility to issue timely warnings of potential volcanic activity to the affected populace and civil authorities. The Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) is funded to carry out that mission and does so through a combination of volcano monitoring, short-term warnings, research on how volcanoes work, and community education and outreach.

  12. Numerical Tsunami Hazard Assessment of the Only Active Lesser Antilles Arc Submarine Volcano: Kick 'em Jenny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondin, F. J. Y.; Dorville, J. F. M.; Robertson, R. E. A.

    2015-12-01

    The Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc has potentially been hit by prehistorical regional tsunamis generated by voluminous volcanic landslides (volume > 1 km3) among the 53 events recognized so far. No field evidence of these tsunamis are found in the vincity of the sources. Such a scenario taking place nowadays would trigger hazardous tsunami waves bearing potentially catastrophic consequences for the closest islands and regional offshore oil platforms.Here we applied a complete hazard assessment method on the only active submarine volcano of the arc Kick 'em Jenny (KeJ). KeJ is the southernmost edifice with recognized associated volcanic landslide deposits. From the three identified landslide episodes one is associated with a collapse volume ca. 4.4 km3. Numerical simulations considering a single pulse collapse revealed that this episode would have produced a regional tsunami. An edifice current volume estimate is ca. 1.5 km3.Previous study exists in relationship to assessment of regional tsunami hazard related to shoreline surface elevation (run-up) in the case of a potential flank collapse scenario at KeJ. However this assessment was based on inferred volume of collapse material. We aim to firstly quantify potential initial volumes of collapse material using relative slope instability analysis (RSIA); secondly to assess first order run-ups and maximum inland inundation distance for Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, i.e. two important economic centers of the Lesser Antilles. In this framework we present for seven geomechanical models tested in the RSIA step maps of critical failure surface associated with factor of stability (Fs) for twelve sectors of 30° each; then we introduce maps of expected potential run-ups (run-up × the probability of failure at a sector) at the shoreline.The RSIA evaluates critical potential failure surface associated with Fs sources characteristics are retrieved from numerical simulation using an hydraulic equations-based code (Volc

  13. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

    2000-01-01

    The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others

  14. Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

  15. Identifying hazard parameter to develop quantitative and dynamic hazard map of an active volcano in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suminar, Wulan; Saepuloh, Asep; Meilano, Irwan

    2016-05-01

    Analysis of hazard assessment to active volcanoes is crucial for risk management. The hazard map of volcano provides information to decision makers and communities before, during, and after volcanic crisis. The rapid and accurate hazard assessment, especially to an active volcano is necessary to be developed for better mitigation on the time of volcanic crises in Indonesia. In this paper, we identified the hazard parameters to develop quantitative and dynamic hazard map of an active volcano. The Guntur volcano in Garut Region, West Java, Indonesia was selected as study area due population are resided adjacent to active volcanoes. The development of infrastructures, especially related to tourism at the eastern flank from the Summit, are growing rapidly. The remote sensing and field investigation approaches were used to obtain hazard parameters spatially. We developed a quantitative and dynamic algorithm to map spatially hazard potential of volcano based on index overlay technique. There were identified five volcano hazard parameters based on Landsat 8 and ASTER imageries: volcanic products including pyroclastic fallout, pyroclastic flows, lava and lahar, slope topography, surface brightness temperature, and vegetation density. Following this proposed technique, the hazard parameters were extracted, indexed, and calculated to produce spatial hazard values at and around Guntur Volcano. Based on this method, the hazard potential of low vegetation density is higher than high vegetation density. Furthermore, the slope topography, surface brightness temperature, and fragmental volcanic product such as pyroclastics influenced to the spatial hazard value significantly. Further study to this proposed approach will be aimed for effective and efficient analyses of volcano risk assessment.

  16. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  17. Volcanic hazards at Atitlan volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haapala, J.M.; Escobar Wolf, R.; Vallance, James W.; Rose, William I.; Griswold, J.P.; Schilling, S.P.; Ewert, J.W.; Mota, M.

    2006-01-01

    Atitlan Volcano is in the Guatemalan Highlands, along a west-northwest trending chain of volcanoes parallel to the mid-American trench. The volcano perches on the southern rim of the Atitlan caldera, which contains Lake Atitlan. Since the major caldera-forming eruption 85 thousand years ago (ka), three stratovolcanoes--San Pedro, Toliman, and Atitlan--have formed in and around the caldera. Atitlan is the youngest and most active of the three volcanoes. Atitlan Volcano is a composite volcano, with a steep-sided, symmetrical cone comprising alternating layers of lava flows, volcanic ash, cinders, blocks, and bombs. Eruptions of Atitlan began more than 10 ka [1] and, since the arrival of the Spanish in the mid-1400's, eruptions have occurred in six eruptive clusters (1469, 1505, 1579, 1663, 1717, 1826-1856). Owing to its distance from population centers and the limited written record from 200 to 500 years ago, only an incomplete sample of the volcano's behavior is documented prior to the 1800's. The geologic record provides a more complete sample of the volcano's behavior since the 19th century. Geologic and historical data suggest that the intensity and pattern of activity at Atitlan Volcano is similar to that of Fuego Volcano, 44 km to the east, where active eruptions have been observed throughout the historical period. Because of Atitlan's moderately explosive nature and frequency of eruptions, there is a need for local and regional hazard planning and mitigation efforts. Tourism has flourished in the area; economic pressure has pushed agricultural activity higher up the slopes of Atitlan and closer to the source of possible future volcanic activity. This report summarizes the hazards posed by Atitlan Volcano in the event of renewed activity but does not imply that an eruption is imminent. However, the recognition of potential activity will facilitate hazard and emergency preparedness.

  18. Assessing landslide susceptibility, hazards and sediment yield in the Río El Estado watershed, Pico de Orizaba volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legorreta Paulin, G.; Bursik, M. I.; Lugo Hubp, J.; Aceves Quesada, J. F.

    2014-12-01

    This work provides an overview of the on-going research project (Grant SEP-CONACYT # 167495) from the Institute of Geography at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) that seeks to conduct a multi-temporal landslide inventory, analyze the distribution of landslides, and characterize landforms that are prone to slope instability by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The study area is the Río El Estado watershed that covers 5.2 km2 and lies on the southwestern flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano.The watershed was studied by using aerial photographs, fieldwork, and adaptation of the Landslide Hazard Zonation Protocol of the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, USA. 107 gravitational slope failures of six types were recognized: shallow landslides, debris-avalanches, deep-seated landslides, debris flows, earthflows, and rock falls. This analysis divided the watershed into 12 mass-wasting landforms on which gravitational processes occur: inner gorges, headwalls, active scarps of deep-seated landslides, meanders, plains, rockfalls, non-rule-identified inner gorges, non-rule-identified headwalls, non-rule-identified converging hillslopes and three types of hillslopes classified by their gradient: low, moderate, and high. For each landform the landslide area rate and the landslide frequency rate were calculated as well as the overall hazard rating. The slope-stability hazard rating has a range that goes from low to very high. The overall hazard rating for this watershed was very high. The shallow slide type landslide was selected and area and volume of individual landslides were retrieved from the watershed landslide inventory geo-database, to establish an empirical relationship between area and volume that takes the form of a power law. The relationship was used to estimate the total volume of landslides in the study area. The findings are important to understand the long-term evolution of the southwestern flank stream system of Pico de

  19. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  20. A voluminous avalanche-induced lahar from Citlaltépetl volcano, Mexico: Implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-Núñez, Gerardo; Vallance, James W.; Rose, William I.

    1993-12-01

    During the late Pleistocene the ancestral edifice of Citlaltépetl volcano (also known as Pico de Orizaba) collapsed to form a clay-rich deposit that extends 85 km from its source, has a volume of 1.8 km 3, and covers an area of 143 km 2 east of the volcano. The deposit has clay content ranging from 10 to 16% and contains secondary alteration minerals such as smectite and kaolinite. The deposit's features suggest that it had an origin as a sector collapse of hydrothermally altered rock that transformed from a debris avalanche to a cohesive lahar very close to its source. The presence of glacier ice and a hydrothermal system during late Pleistocene times apparently provided a source of pore water which enhanced the hydrothermal alteration of the summit of Citlaltépetl and was the origin of most of the water for the lahar. This deposit and several others suggest that glaciated volcanoes are sites where hydrothermal alteration and resulting cohesive lahars are most likely. Although cohesive lahars and debris avalanches both have origins as sector collapses, cohesive lahars are more mobile than similar-sized debris avalanches. Thus potential hazard of edifice collapse at glaciated volcanoes, especially those with large volumes of hydrothermally altered rock, includes the possibility of large-volume cohesive lahars.

  1. Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathenson, Manuel

    2016-04-08

    The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Natural Hazards activity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaiʻi Mānoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions.

  2. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  3. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  4. Identifying pyroclastic and lahar deposits and assessing erosion and lahar hazards at active volcanoes using multi-temporal HSR image analysis and techniques for change detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassouk, Zeineb; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Oehler, Jean-François; Solikhin, Akhmad

    2014-05-01

    The increasing availability of high-spatial resolution (HSR) remote sensing images leads to new opportunities for hazard assessment in the case of active volcanoes. Object-oriented analysis (OOA) of HSR images helps to simultaneously exploit spatial, spectral and contextual information. Here, we identify and delineate pyroclastic density current (PDC) and post-eruption lahar deposits on the south flank of Merapi volcano, Indonesia, after the large 2010 eruption. GeoEye-1 (2010 and 2011) and Pleiades (2012) images were analyzed with an adjusted object-oriented method. The PDC deposits include valley-confined block-and-ash flows (BAFs), unconfined, overbank pyroclastic flows (OPFs), and high-energy surges or ash-cloud surges. We follow up the evolution of the pyroclastic and lahar deposits through changes in the spectral indices calculated in segmented features, which represent the principal units of deposits and devastated areas. The object-oriented analysis has been applied to the pseudo image comprising of three spectral indices (NDWI water index; NDVI vegetation index; and NDRSI Red Soil Index). This pseudo image has enabled us to delineate fifteen units of PDC and lahar deposits, and damaged forests and settlements in the Gendol-Opak catchment (c.80 sqkm). The units represent 75% of classes obtained by photointerpretation of the same image and supported by field observations. A combination of NDWI and NDVI helps to separate areas affected by surges (NDWI 0.3 and NDWIsurges. The NDWI/NDRSI 2010 plot displays two clusters: NDRSI close to 0 is assigned to scoria-rich PFs while NDWI close to 0 and NDRSI4 x106/km2/year) from erosion acting in the Gendol valley, which characterize composite volcanoes after a large eruption. HSR images have also helped to measure geomorphic characteristics (channel capacity/wetted section; longitudinal change in channel confinement, and channel sinuosity) of river channels, which favor overbank and avulsion of lahars on a densely

  5. A contribution to the hazards assessment at Copahue volcano (Argentina-Chile) by facies analysis of a recent pyroclastic density current deposit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbis, C.; Petrinovic, I. A.; Guzmán, S.

    2016-11-01

    We recognised and interpreted a recent pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposit at the Copahue volcano (Southern Andes), through a field survey and a sedimentological study. The relationships between the behaviour of the PDCs, the morphology of the Río Agrio valley and the eruptive dynamics were interpreted. We identified two lithofacies in the deposit that indicate variations in the eruptive dynamics: i) the opening of the conduit and the formation of a highly explosive eruption that formed a diluted PDC through the immediate collapse of the eruptive column; ii) a continued eruption which followed immediately and records the widening of the conduit, producing a dense PDC. The eruption occurred in 2000 CE, was phreatomagmatic (VEI ≤ 2), with a vesiculation level above 4000 m depth and fragmentation driven by the interaction of magma with an hydrothermal system at ca. 1500 m depth. As deduced from the comparison between the accessory lithics of this deposit and those of the 2012 CE eruption, the depth of onset of vesiculation and fragmentation level in this volcano is constant in depth. In order to reproduce the distribution pattern of this PDC's deposit and to simulate potential PDC's forming-processes, we made several computational modelling from "denser" to "more diluted" conditions. The latter fairly reproduces the distribution of the studied deposit and represents perhaps one of the most dangerous possible scenarios of the Copahue volcanic activity. PDCs occurrence has been considered in the last volcanic hazards map as a low probability process; evidences found in this contribution suggest instead to include them as more probable and thus very important for the hazards assessment of the Copahue volcano.

  6. Gas and particle emissions from Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies: characterization and health hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Andrew G.; Baxter, Peter J.; Ottley, Christopher J.

    The Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, erupting since 18 July 1995, intensified its degassing in early 1996 with the continuing growth of the lava dome inside the summit crater. During this period of increased activity, between 11 and 18 March 1996, we measured gases and particles within the visible plume to determine whether at that time it posed a health risk to the population of Plymouth, the capital town, which is 5km southwest (downwind) and was then still occupied. Gravimetric measurements were made of total suspended particles (TSP) and particles having an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10μm (PM10). Measurements were made of sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrochloric acid (HCl), hydrofluoric acid (HF), nitric acid (HNO3), acetic acid (CH3COOH), formic acid (HCOOH), and particulate sulphate (SO42-), chloride (Cl-), nitrate (NO3-), fluoride (F-), methanesulphonate (CH3SO3-), acetate (CH3COO-), formate (HCOO-), ammonium (NH4+), sodium (Na+) and acidity (H+). Trace metals having human health implications [chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), selenium (Se), cadmium (Cd), tin (Sn), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb)] were also determined. Mean concentrations of HCl, SO2 and HF obtained in the town of Plymouth were 14.0, 5.9 and 0.8ppbv, respectively. Corresponding concentrations in the mixed plume on the crater edge were 533, 168 and 22ppbv. There were no direct emissions of HNO3, although nitrate was detected in coarse particles at the source. Higher concentrations of CH3COOH and HCOOH were measured close to the crater. Mean TSP and PM10 were 64 and 15μgm-3 in Plymouth, and 455 and 47μgm-3 on the upper volcano slope. Aerosols were highly acidic at the source but rapidly neutralised during transport. Trace metals were enriched in the aerosol relative to crater surface material. The concentrations of the acid gases, sulphur dioxide in particular, and particles were found to be too small to pose a health hazard at the time of

  7. Lahar Hazard Modeling at Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, O. E.; Rose, W. I.; Jaya, D.

    2003-04-01

    Tungurahua Volcano (Lat. 01^o28'S; Long. 78^o27'W), located in the central Ecuadorian Andes, is an active edifice that rises more than 3 km above surrounding topography. Since European settlement in 1532, Tungurahua has experienced four major eruptive episodes: 1641-1646, 1773-1781, 1886-1888 and 1916-1918 (Hall et al, JVGR V91; p1-21, 1999). In September 1999, Tungurahua began a new period of activity that continues to the present. During this time, the volcano has erupted daily, depositing ash and blocks on its steep flanks. A pattern of continuing eruptions, coupled with rainfall up to 28 mm in a 6 hour period (rain data collected in Baños at 6-hr intervals, 3000 meters below Tungurahua’s summit), has produced an environment conducive to lahar mobilization. Tungurahua volcano presents an immediate hazard to the town of Baños, an important tourist destination and cultural center with a population of about 25,000 residents located 8 km from the crater. During the current eruptive episode, lahars have occurred as often as 3 times per week on the northern and western slopes of the volcano. Consequently, the only north-south trending highway on the west side of Tungurahua has been completely severed at the intersection of at least ten drainages, where erosion has exceeded 10 m since 1999. The La Pampa quebrada, located 1 km west of Baños, is the most active of Tungurahua's drainages. At this location, where the slope is moderate, lahars continue to inundate the only highway linking Baños to the Pan American Highway. Because of steep topography, the conventional approach of measuring planimetric inundation areas to determine the scale of lahars could not be employed. Instead, cross sections were measured in the channels using volume/cross-sectional inundation relationships determined by (Iverson et al, GSABull V110; no. 8, p972-984, 1998). After field observations of the lahars, LAHARZ, a program used in a geographic information system (GIS) to objectively map

  8. Volcano-hazard zonation for San Vicente volcano, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; Escobar, C.D.; Howell, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    San Vicente volcano, also known as Chichontepec, is one of many volcanoes along the volcanic arc in El Salvador. This composite volcano, located about 50 kilometers east of the capital city San Salvador, has a volume of about 130 cubic kilometers, rises to an altitude of about 2180 meters, and towers above major communities such as San Vicente, Tepetitan, Guadalupe, Zacatecoluca, and Tecoluca. In addition to the larger communities that surround the volcano, several smaller communities and coffee plantations are located on or around the flanks of the volcano, and major transportation routes are located near the lowermost southern and eastern flanks of the volcano. The population density and proximity around San Vicente volcano, as well as the proximity of major transportation routes, increase the risk that even small landslides or eruptions, likely to occur again, can have serious societal consequences. The eruptive history of San Vicente volcano is not well known, and there is no definitive record of historical eruptive activity. The last significant eruption occurred more than 1700 years ago, and perhaps long before permanent human habitation of the area. Nevertheless, this volcano has a very long history of repeated, and sometimes violent, eruptions, and at least once a large section of the volcano collapsed in a massive landslide. The oldest rocks associated with a volcanic center at San Vicente are more than 2 million years old. The volcano is composed of remnants of multiple eruptive centers that have migrated roughly eastward with time. Future eruptions of this volcano will pose substantial risk to surrounding communities.

  9. Hazard assessment of far-range volcanic ash dispersal from a violent Strombolian eruption at Somma-Vesuvius volcano, Naples, Italy: implications on civil aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulpizio, Roberto; Folch, Arnau; Costa, Antonio; Scaini, Chiara; Dellino, Pierfrancesco

    2012-11-01

    Long-range dispersal of volcanic ash can disrupt civil aviation over large areas, as occurred during the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. Here we assess the hazard for civil aviation posed by volcanic ash from a potential violent Strombolian eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, the most likely scenario if eruptive activity resumed at this volcano. A Somma-Vesuvius eruption is of concern for two main reasons: (1) there is a high probability (38 %) that the eruption will be violent Strombolian, as this activity has been common in the most recent period of activity (between AD 1631 and 1944); and (2) violent Strombolian eruptions typically last longer than higher-magnitude events (from 3 to 7 days for the climactic phases) and, consequently, are likely to cause prolonged air traffic disruption (even at large distances if a substantial amount of fine ash is produced such as is typical during Vesuvius eruptions). We compute probabilistic hazard maps for airborne ash concentration at relevant flight levels using the FALL3D ash dispersal model and a statistically representative set of meteorological conditions. Probabilistic hazard maps are computed for two different ash concentration thresholds, 2 and 0.2 mg/m3, which correspond, respectively, to the no-fly and enhanced procedure conditions defined in Europe during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. The seasonal influence of ash dispersal is also analysed by computing seasonal maps. We define the persistence of ash in the atmosphere as the time that a concentration threshold is exceeded divided by the total duration of the eruption (here the eruption phase producing a sustained eruption column). The maps of averaged persistence give additional information on the expected duration of the conditions leading to flight disruption at a given location. We assess the impact that a violent Strombolian eruption would have on the main airports and aerial corridors of the Central Mediterranean area, and this assessment

  10. Terrestrial Radar Interferometry and Structure-from-Motion Data from Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia for Improved Hazard Assessment and Volcano Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, M.; Dixon, T. H.; Gallant, E.; López, C. M.; Malservisi, R.; Ordoñez, M.; Richardson, J. A.; Voss, N. K.; Xie, S.

    2015-12-01

    Ground-based remote sensing geodesy has huge potential for volcano monitoring and improved modelling of volcanic hazards. Terrestrial Radar Interferometers (TRI) can rapidly and accurately create DEMs and repeat occupation of sites allows measurement of deformation. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry can be used to construct DEMs and SfM surveys can be carried out with relatively accessible equipment. TRI and SfM techniques are highly complimentary: The upper slopes of a volcano may be cloud covered, but can be imaged by TRI, whereas lower canyons may be in radar shadow, but can be imaged with SfM. Both methods are also complimentary to satellite observations (e.g. SRTM, ASTER), offering some advantages in terms of coverage and resolution. We present the acquisition of two new geodetic datasets at Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia (NRV). NRV is a large glacierised volcano that erupted in 1985, generating a glacier-derived lahar that killed over 23,000 people in the city of Armero and 2,000 people in the town of Chinchina. NRV is the most active volcano in Colombia and since 2012 has generated small eruptions (with no casualties) and constant gas and ash emissions. In early 2015, we collected data from several sites close to the crater of NRV and around the Azufrado drainage (the site of previous debris avalanches and lahars). The TRI was operated from three sites, while drone- and ground-based cameras ventured into the canyons to fill in radar shadow gaps. These data have three primary uses: 1) generation of high-precision DEMs for lahar modelling and visualisation of previous events, 2) imaging of summit glacier motion, and 3) establishing a baseline for long-term deformation studies. We discuss ground-based remote sensing geodetic data from high-tech (TRI) to low-tech (SfM) methods and show the importance of combining these complimentary datasets to improve DEMs for hazard modelling and volcano monitoring.

  11. Lahar hazards at Agua volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Vallance, J.W.; Matías, O.; Howell, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    At 3760 m, Agua volcano towers more than 3500 m above the Pacific coastal plain to the south and 2000 m above the Guatemalan highlands to the north. The volcano is within 5 to 10 kilometers (km) of Antigua, Guatemala and several other large towns situated on its northern apron. These towns have a combined population of nearly 100,000. It is within about 20 km of Escuintla (population, ca. 100,000) to the south. Though the volcano has not been active in historical time, or about the last 500 years, it has the potential to produce debris flows (watery flows of mud, rock, and debris—also known as lahars when they occur on a volcano) that could inundate these nearby populated areas.

  12. Science at the policy interface: volcano-monitoring technologies and volcanic hazard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Amy; Oppenheimer, Clive; Bravo, Michael

    2012-07-01

    This paper discusses results from a survey of volcanologists carried out on the Volcano Listserv during late 2008 and early 2009. In particular, it examines the status of volcano monitoring technologies and their relative perceived value at persistently and potentially active volcanoes. It also examines the role of different types of knowledge in hazard assessment on active volcanoes, as reported by scientists engaged in this area, and interviewees with experience from the current eruption on Montserrat. Conclusions are drawn about the current state of monitoring and the likely future research directions, and also about the roles of expertise and experience in risk assessment on active volcanoes; while local knowledge is important, it must be balanced with fresh ideas and expertise in a combination of disciplines to produce an advisory context that is conducive to high-level scientific discussion.

  13. Schoolyard Volcanoes: A Unit in Volcanology and Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, H. N.; Gochis, E. E.; Brill, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    How do you teach volcanology and volcanic hazards to students when there is no volcano nearby? You bring the volcano to them! At Michigan Technological University we have developed a four-lesson-unit for middle and high school students which incorporates virtual, analogue and numerical models to increase students' interests in geosciences while simultaneously expanding the community of earth-science-literate individuals necessary for a disaster resilient society. The unit aims to build on students' prior geoscience knowledge by examining the physical properties that influence volcanic eruptions and introduces them to challenges and methods of communicating hazards and risk. Lesson one engages students in a series of hands-on investigations that explore the "3-Vs" of volcanology: Viscosity, Volatiles and Volume. The students learn about the relationship between magma composition and viscosity and the influence on eruption style, behavior and morphology of different volcanoes. Lesson two uses an analogue model of a volcano to demonstrate the forces involved in an explosive eruption and associated hazards. Students think critically about the factors that affect hazards and risk as well as the variables (such as topography) that affect the eruption and the hazard. During lesson three students use Google Earth for a virtual field trip to Pacaya volcano, Guatemala to examine changes in the landscape over time and other evidence of volcanic activity to make interpretations about the volcano. The final lesson has the students use numerical models and GIS to create hazard maps based on probabilistic lahar scenarios. Throughout the unit students are engaged in an inquiry-based exploration that covers several Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) content and practices. This four lesson unit has been field tested in two school districts and during a summer engineering program. Results from student work and post-surveys show that this strategy raises interests in and

  14. Progresses in geology and hazards analysis of Tianchi Volcano

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WEI Hai-quan; JIN Bo-lu; LIU Yong-shun

    2004-01-01

    A number of different lahars have been recognized from a systematic survey of a mapping project. The high setting temperature feature of the deposits indicates a relationship between the lahar and the Millennium eruption event of Tianchi Volcano. The lahars caused a dramatic disaster. Recognize of the huge avalanche scars and deposits around Tianchi Volcano imply another highly destructive hazard. Three types of different texture of the avalanche deposits have been recognized. There was often magma mixing processes during the Millennium eruption of Tianchi Volcano, indicating a mixing and co-eruption regime of the eruption.

  15. Variations in community exposure to lahar hazards from multiple volcanoes in Washington State (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Angela K.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ewert, John W.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how communities are vulnerable to lahar hazards provides critical input for effective design and implementation of volcano hazard preparedness and mitigation strategies. Past vulnerability assessments have focused largely on hazards posed by a single volcano, even though communities and officials in many parts of the world must plan for and contend with hazards associated with multiple volcanoes. To better understand community vulnerability in regions with multiple volcanic threats, we characterize and compare variations in community exposure to lahar hazards associated with five active volcanoes in Washington State, USA—Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, Mount Adams and Mount St. Helens—each having the potential to generate catastrophic lahars that could strike communities tens of kilometers downstream. We use geospatial datasets that represent various population indicators (e.g., land cover, residents, employees, tourists) along with mapped lahar-hazard boundaries at each volcano to determine the distributions of populations within communities that occupy lahar-prone areas. We estimate that Washington lahar-hazard zones collectively contain 191,555 residents, 108,719 employees, 433 public venues that attract visitors, and 354 dependent-care facilities that house individuals that will need assistance to evacuate. We find that population exposure varies considerably across the State both in type (e.g., residential, tourist, employee) and distribution of people (e.g., urban to rural). We develop composite lahar-exposure indices to identify communities most at-risk and communities throughout the State who share common issues of vulnerability to lahar-hazards. We find that although lahars are a regional hazard that will impact communities in different ways there are commonalities in community exposure across multiple volcanoes. Results will aid emergency managers, local officials, and the public in educating at-risk populations and developing

  16. Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebbington, Mark; Stirling, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

    2016-04-01

    The quantification of volcanic hazard at national level is a vital pre-requisite to placing volcanic risk on a platform that permits meaningful comparison with other hazards such as earthquakes. New Zealand has up to a dozen dangerous volcanoes, with the usual mixed degrees of knowledge concerning their temporal and spatial eruptive history. Information on the 'size' of the eruptions, be it in terms of VEI, volume or duration, is sketchy at best. These limitations and the need for a uniform approach lend themselves to a subjective hazard analysis via expert elicitation. Approximately 20 New Zealand volcanologists provided estimates for the size of the next eruption from each volcano and, conditional on this, its location, timing and duration. Opinions were likewise elicited from a control group of statisticians, seismologists and (geo)chemists, all of whom had at least heard the term 'volcano'. The opinions were combined via the Cooke classical method. We will report on the preliminary results from the exercise.

  17. Volcano hazards at Fuego and Acatenango, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallance, J.W.; Schilling, S.P.; Matías, O.; Rose, William I.; Howell, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    The Fuego-Acatenango massif comprises a string of five or more volcanic vents along a north-south trend that is perpendicular to that of the Central American arc in Guatemala. From north to south known centers of volcanism are Ancient Acatenango, Yepocapa, Pico Mayor de Acatenango, Meseta, and Fuego. Volcanism along the trend stretches back more than 200,000 years. Although many of the centers have been active contemporaneously, there is a general sequence of younger volcanism, from north to south along the trend. This massive volcano complex towers more than 3500 meters (m) above the Pacific coastal plain to the south and 2000 m above the Guatemalan Highlands to the north. The volcano complex comprises remnants of multiple eruptive centers, which periodically have collapsed to form huge debris avalanches. The largest of these avalanches extended more than 50 kilometers (km) from its source and covered more than 300 square km. The volcano has potential to produce huge debris avalanches that could inundate large areas of the Pacific coastal plain. In areas around the volcanoes and downslope toward the coastal plain, more than 100,000 people are potentially at risk from these and other flowage phenomena.

  18. Seismic Hazards at Kilauea and Mauna LOA Volcanoes, Hawaii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klein, Fred W.

    1994-04-22

    A significant seismic hazard exists in south Hawaii from large tectonic earthquakes that can reach magnitude 8 and intensity XII. This paper quantifies the hazard by estimating the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in south Hawaii which occurs with a 90% probability of not being exceeded during exposure times from 10 to 250 years. The largest earthquakes occur beneath active, unbuttressed and mobile flanks of volcanoes in their shield building stage.

  19. 2006-2008 Eruptions and Volcano Hazards Of Soputan Volcano, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendratno, K.; Pallister, J. S.; McCausland, W. A.; Kristianto, M.; Bina, F. R.; Carn, S. A.; Haerani, N.; Griswold, J.; Keeler, R.

    2010-12-01

    Soputan is a basalt volcano located in North Sulawesi near the southern margin of the Quaternary Tondano Caldera. Unusual for a basalt volcano, Soputan produces summit lava domes and explosive eruptions, as well as voluminous basaltic tephra deposits and lava flows. Soputan erupted five times during 2006-2008: on 14 December, 2006, 12-15 August, 2007, 25-26 October, 2007, 5-6 June, 2008, and 5-6 October, 2008. The 2006-2007 eruptions destroyed a lava dome at the volcano’s summit and exposed the conduit, resulting in Vulcanian eruptions and St. Vincent type pyroclastic flows from an open vent structure. We used high-resolution satellite images and digital elevation models to make photo-geologic maps of the deposits from the 2006, 2007 and 2008 eruptions, to estimate volumes of deposits using GIS and to model potential flow hazards. In March, 2008 and in March 2009 we conducted reconnaissance geologic field investigations at Soputan. This work was done to field-check our photo-geologic mapping, to reconstruct the sequence of eruptive events in 2006-2008 and to collect samples for geochemical and petrographic analysis. We also analyzed seismic records and SO2 emission data from the eruptions and we interpreted these data in the context of our geologic and geochemical data to provide insights into the ascent and degassing of magmas. On the basis of the eruptive history and modeling of potential lahar inundation areas we present an updated assessment of volcano hazards and a forecast for future eruptions at Soputan. Our analysis of field and petrologic data indicates that Soputan is an open-system volcano, which taps basalt magma from great depth, apparently with little shallow storage of this magma. Degassing of the magma as it rises within the conduit results in growth of micro-phenocrysts, evolution of the matrix melt and a commensurate increase in the viscosity of the magma. This, in turn, results in growth of lava domes and more explosive eruptions than are

  20. Global Volcano Model: progress towards an international co-ordinated network for volcanic hazard and risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loughlin, Susan

    2013-04-01

    GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. GVM is a network that aims to co-ordinate and integrate the efforts of the international volcanology community. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM. Activities currently include: design and development of databases of volcano data, volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards; establishment of methodologies for analysis of the data (e.g. hazard and exposure indices) to inform risk assessment; development of complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM acts through establishing task forces to deliver explicit deliverables in finite periods of time. GVM has a task force to deliver a global assessment of volcanic risk for UN ISDR, a task force for indices, and a task force for volcano deformation from satellite observations. GVM is organising a Volcano Best Practices workshop in 2013. A recent product of GVM is a global database on large magnitude explosive eruptions. There is ongoing work to develop databases on debris avalanches, lava dome hazards and ash hazard. GVM aims to develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.

  1. Environmental Hazards and Mud Volcanoes in Romania

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Romania, an eastern European country, is severely affected by a variety of natural hazards. These include frequent earthquakes, floods, landslides, soil erosion, and...

  2. Antarctic volcanoes: A remote but significant hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geyer, Adelina; Martí, Alex; Folch, Arnau; Giralt, Santiago

    2017-04-01

    Ash emitted during explosive volcanic eruptions can be dispersed over massive areas of the globe, posing a threat to both human health and infrastructures, such as the air traffic. Some of the last eruptions occurred during this decade (e.g. 14/04/2010 - Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland; 24/05/2011-Grímsvötn, Iceland; 05/06/2011-Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Chile) have strongly affected the air traffic in different areas of the world, leading to economic losses of billions of euros. From the tens of volcanoes located in Antarctica, at least nine are known to be active and five of them have reported volcanic activity in historical times. However, until now, no attention has been paid to the possible social, economical and environmental consequences of an eruption that would occur on high southern latitudes, perhaps because it is considered that its impacts would be minor or local, and mainly restricted to the practically inhabited Antarctic continent. We show here, as a case study and using climate models, how volcanic ash emitted during a regular eruption of one of the most active volcanoes in Antarctica, Deception Island (South Shetland Islands), could reach the African continent as well as Australia and South America. The volcanic cloud could strongly affect the air traffic not only in the region and at high southern latitudes, but also the flights connecting Africa, South America and Oceania. Results obtained are crucial to understand the patterns of volcanic ash distribution at high southern latitudes with obvious implications for tephrostratigraphical and chronological studies that provide valuable isochrones with which to synchronize palaeoclimate records. This research was partially funded by the MINECO grants VOLCLIMA (CGL2015-72629-EXP)and POSVOLDEC(CTM2016-79617-P)(AEI/FEDER, UE), the Ramón y Cajal research program (RYC-2012-11024) and the NEMOH European project (REA grant 34 agreement n° 289976).

  3. Combining Volcano Monitoring Timeseries Analyses with Bayesian Belief Networks to Update Hazard Forecast Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Hincks, Thea; Aspinall, Willy

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic hazard assessments must combine information about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena with observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We show how our method

  4. Hydraulic modeling for lahar hazards at cascades volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, J.E.

    1997-01-01

    The National Weather Service flood routing model DAMBRK is able to closely replicate field-documented stages of historic and prehistoric lahars from Mt. Rainier, Washington, and Mt. Hood, Oregon. Modeled time-of-travel of flow waves are generally consistent with documented lahar travel-times from other volcanoes around the world. The model adequately replicates a range of lahars and debris flows, including the 230 million km3 Electron lahar from Mt. Rainier, as well as a 10 m3 debris flow generated in a large outdoor experimental flume. The model is used to simulate a hypothetical lahar with a volume of 50 million m3 down the East Fork Hood River from Mt. Hood, Oregon. Although a flow such as this is thought to be possible in the Hood River valley, no field evidence exists on which to base a hazards assessment. DAMBRK seems likely to be usable in many volcanic settings to estimate discharge, velocity, and inundation areas of lahars when input hydrographs and energy-loss coefficients can be reasonably estimated.

  5. Collaborative Monitoring and Hazard Mitigation at Fuego Volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, J. J.; Bluth, G. J.; Rose, W. I.; Patrick, M.; Johnson, J. B.; Stix, J.

    2007-05-01

    A portable, digital sensor network has been installed to closely monitor changing activity at Fuego volcano, which takes advantage of an international collaborative effort among Guatemala, U.S. and Canadian universities, and the Peace Corps. The goal of this effort is to improve the understanding shallow internal processes, and consequently to more effectively mitigate volcanic hazards. Fuego volcano has had more than 60 historical eruptions and nearly-continuous activity make it an ideal laboratory to study volcanic processes. Close monitoring is needed to identify base-line activity, and rapidly identify and disseminate changes in the activity which might threaten nearby communities. The sensor network is comprised of a miniature DOAS ultraviolet spectrometer fitted with a system for automated plume scans, a digital video camera, and two seismo-acoustic stations and portable dataloggers. These sensors are on loan from scientists who visited Fuego during short field seasons and donated use of their sensors to a resident Peace Corps Masters International student from Michigan Technological University for extended data collection. The sensor network is based around the local volcano observatory maintained by Instituto National de Sismologia, Vulcanologia, Metrologia e Hidrologia (INSIVUMEH). INSIVUMEH provides local support and historical knowledge of Fuego activity as well as a secure location for storage of scientific equipment, data processing, and charging of the batteries that power the sensors. The complete sensor network came online in mid-February 2007 and here we present preliminary results from concurrent gas, seismic, and acoustic monitoring of activity from Fuego volcano.

  6. CHRIS: Hazard Assessment Handbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-12-12

    CODE AIJ 91 HAZARD ASSESSMENT CODE-ABC KLMN 95 A. VENTING GAS FIRE -CODE AB 97 B. LIOUID FIRE-CODE AKL 97 C. WATER POLLUTION HAZARDS - CODE AK 99 D...The Hazard Calculation Codes for liquefied natural gas are: AB — venting gas fire . AC - gas dispersion, ADE — liquid fire, and ADFG...5.4). Spill Amount Wind Velocity Wind Direction Weather ppm tons knots Primary Code ABCKLMN Code AB - Venting Gas Fire Assessment

  7. Volcano hazards and potential risks on St. Paul Island, Pribilof Islands, Bering Sea, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeley, T. C.; Winer, G. S.

    2009-05-01

    Volcano hazards and potential risks on St. Paul Island, Alaska, are assessed on the basis of the recent volcanic history of the island. The long-term frequency of volcanic eruptions is estimated using a count of 40 identifiable vents considered to represent separate eruptions. Assuming regular temporal spacing of these events during the period 360,000 to 3230 y.b.p., the estimated mean recurrence time is 0.11 × 10 - 3 eruption/year and the eruptive interval is approximately 8900 years. Volcano hazards on St. Paul are associated exclusively with the eruption of low viscosity alkali basaltic magma. The most important are lava flows, tephra fallout, and base surges. Other hazards include volcanic gases, seismicity and ground deformation associated with dike intrusion beneath rift zones, and explosive lava-water interactions along coastal regions and water-saturated ground. The general characteristics of past volcanism on St. Paul indicate that the most likely styles of future eruptions will be (1) Hawaiian-style eruptions with fire fountains and pahoehoe lava flows issuing from one of two polygenetic shield volcanoes on the island; (2) Strombolian-style, scoria cone-building eruptions with associated tephra fallout and eruption of short pahoehoe lava flows; and (3) explosive Surtseyan-style, phreatomagmatic eruptions initiating at some point along St. Paul's insular shelf. Given the relatively restricted range in volcanic phenomena on St. Paul, the most significant question regarding volcano hazard and risk assessment is whether future eruptions will be confined to the same region on the island as the most recent activity. If future activity follows the recent past, resulting volcano hazards will most likely be located at inland areas sufficiently far from habitation that they will pose little threat to life or property. An important caveat, however, is that St. Paul is constructed almost entirely from the products of volcanic eruptions with vents located all over

  8. Global Assessment of Volcanic Debris Hazards from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, Robert J.

    2003-01-01

    Hazard (slope stability) assessment for different sectors of volcano edifices was successfully obtained from volcanoes in North and South America. The assessment entailed Hyperion images to locate portions of the volcano that were hydrothermally altered to clay rich rocks with zones that were also rich in alunite and other minerals. The identified altered rock zones were field checked and sampled. The rock strength of these zones was calculated from the field and laboratory measurements. Volcano modeling utilizing the distinct element method and limit equilibrium technique, with the calculated strength data was used to assess stability and deformation of the edifice. Modeling results give indications of possible failure volumes, velocities and direction. The models show the crucial role hydrothermally weak rock plays in reducing the strength o the volcano edifice and the rapid identification of weak rock through remote sensing techniques. Volcanoes were assessed in the Cascade Range (USA), Mexico, and Chile (ongoing).

  9. Probabilistic hazard analysis of Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) Volcano, eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Carrasco-Núñez, Gerardo

    2002-03-01

    Citlaltépetl or Pico de Orizaba is the highest active volcano in the North American continent. Although Citlaltépetl is at present in repose, its eruptive history reveals repetitive explosive eruptions in the past. Its relatively low eruption rate has favored significant population growth in areas that may be affected by a potential eruptive activity. The need of some criteria for hazards assessment and land-use planning has motivated the use of statistical methods to estimate the time and space distribution of volcanic hazards around this volcano. The analysis of past activity, from late Pleistocene to historic times, and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various size during time periods useful for land-use planning.

  10. A UAV System for Observing Volcanoes and Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saggiani, G.; Persiani, F.; Ceruti, A.; Tortora, P.; Troiani, E.; Giuletti, F.; Amici, S.; Buongiorno, M.; Distefano, G.; Bentini, G.; Bianconi, M.; Cerutti, A.; Nubile, A.; Sugliani, S.; Chiarini, M.; Pennestri, G.; Petrini, S.; Pieri, D.

    2007-12-01

    Fixed or rotary wing manned aircraft are currently the most commonly used platforms for airborne reconnaissance in response to natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, oil spills, wild fires, earthquakes. Such flights are very often undertaken in hazardous flying conditions (e.g., turbulence, downdrafts, reduced visibility, close proximity to dangerous terrain) and can be expensive. To mitigate these two fundamental issues-- safety and cost--we are exploring the use of small (less than 100kg), relatively inexpensive, but effective, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for this purpose. As an operational test, in 2004 we flew a small autonomous UAV in the airspace above and around Stromboli Volcano. Based in part on this experience, we are adapting the RAVEN UAV system for such natural hazard surveillance missions. RAVEN has a 50km range, with a 3.5m wingspan, main fuselage length of 4.60m, and maximum weight of 56kg. It has autonomous flight capability and a ground control Station for the mission planning and control. It will carry a variety of imaging devices, including a visible camera, and an IR camera. It will also carry an experimental Fourier micro-interferometer based on MOEMS technology, (developed by IMM Institute of CNR), to detect atmospheric trace gases. Such flexible, capable, and easy-to-deploy UAV systems may significantly shorten the time necessary to characterize the nature and scale of the natural hazard threats if used from the outset of, and systematically during, natural hazard events. When appropriately utilized, such UAVs can provide a powerful new hazard mitigation and documentation tool for civil protection hazard responders. This research was carried out under the auspices of the Italian government, and, in part, under contract to NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

  11. Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

    OpenAIRE

    Ciro Del Negro; Annamaria Vicari; Annalisa Cappello

    2011-01-01

    This report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and t...

  12. Lahar-hazard zonation for San Miguel volcano, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; Escobar, C.D.; Chesner, C.A.; Howell, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    San Miguel volcano, also known as Chaparrastique, is one of many volcanoes along the volcanic arc in El Salvador. The volcano, located in the eastern part of the country, rises to an altitude of about 2130 meters and towers above the communities of San Miguel, El Transito, San Rafael Oriente, and San Jorge. In addition to the larger communities that surround the volcano, several smaller communities and coffee plantations are located on or around the flanks of the volcano, and the PanAmerican and coastal highways cross the lowermost northern and southern flanks of the volcano. The population density around San Miguel volcano coupled with the proximity of major transportation routes increases the risk that even small volcano-related events, like landslides or eruptions, may have significant impact on people and infrastructure. San Miguel volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in El Salvador; it has erupted at least 29 times since 1699. Historical eruptions of the volcano consisted mainly of relatively quiescent emplacement of lava flows or minor explosions that generated modest tephra falls (erupted fragments of microscopic ash to meter sized blocks that are dispersed into the atmosphere and fall to the ground). Little is known, however, about prehistoric eruptions of the volcano. Chemical analyses of prehistoric lava flows and thin tephra falls from San Miguel volcano indicate that the volcano is composed dominantly of basalt (rock having silica content

  13. Mauna Loa--history, hazards and risk of living with the world's largest volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trusdell, Frank A.

    2012-01-01

    Mauna Loa on the Island Hawaiʻi is the world’s largest volcano. People residing on its flanks face many hazards that come with living on or near an active volcano, including lava flows, explosive eruptions, volcanic smog, damaging earthquakes, and local tsunami (giant seawaves). The County of Hawaiʻi (Island of Hawaiʻi) is the fastest growing County in the State of Hawaii. Its expanding population and increasing development mean that risk from volcano hazards will continue to grow. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) closely monitor and study Mauna Loa Volcano to enable timely warning of hazardous activity and help protect lives and property.

  14. Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014-2015 eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Nicole; Favalli, Massimiliano; de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Elske; Fornaciai, Alessandro; da Silva Fernandes, Rui Manuel; Pérez, Nemesio M.; Levy, Judith; Silva Victória, Sónia; Walter, Thomas R.

    2016-08-01

    Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014-2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014-2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 ± 5.2 × 106 m3 from the vertical difference between pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both the pre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014-2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. This implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our

  15. A Broadly-Based Training Program in Volcano Hazards Monitoring at the Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, D. M.; Bevens, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Center for the Study of Active Volcanoes, in cooperation with the USGS Volcano Hazards Program at HVO and CVO, offers a broadly based volcano hazards training program targeted toward scientists and technicians from developing nations. The program has been offered for 25 years and provides a hands-on introduction to a broad suite of volcano monitoring techniques, rather than detailed training with just one. The course content has evolved over the life of the program as the needs of the trainees have changed: initially emphasizing very basic monitoring techniques (e.g. precise leveling, interpretation of seismic drum records, etc.) but, as the level of sophistication of the trainees has increased, training in more advanced technologies has been added. Currently, topics of primary emphasis have included volcano seismology and seismic networks; acquisition and modeling of geodetic data; methods of analysis and monitoring of gas geochemistry; interpretation of volcanic deposits and landforms; training in LAHARZ, GIS mapping of lahar risks; and response to and management of volcanic crises. The course also provides training on public outreach, based on CSAV's Hawaii-specific hazards outreach programs, and volcano preparedness and interactions with the media during volcanic crises. It is an intensive eight week course with instruction and field activities underway 6 days per week; it is now offered in two locations, Hawaii Island, for six weeks, and the Cascades volcanoes of the Pacific Northwest, for two weeks, to enable trainees to experience field conditions in both basaltic and continental volcanic environments. The survival of the program for more than two decades demonstrates that a need for such training exists and there has been interaction and contribution to the program by the research community, however broader engagement with the latter continues to present challenges. Some of the reasons for this will be discussed.

  16. PUREX facility hazards assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutton, L.N.

    1994-09-23

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Plant (PUREX) located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. Operation of PUREX is the responsibility of Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for PUREX. DOE Order 5500.3A requires an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification. In October of 1990, WHC was directed to place PUREX in standby. In December of 1992 the DOE Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management authorized the termination of PUREX and directed DOE-RL to proceed with shutdown planning and terminal clean out activities. Prior to this action, its mission was to reprocess irradiated fuels for the recovery of uranium and plutonium. The present mission is to establish a passively safe and environmentally secure configuration at the PUREX facility and to preserve that condition for 10 years. The ten year time frame represents the typical duration expended to define, authorize and initiate follow-on decommissioning and decontamination activities.

  17. Physicochemical and toxicological profiling of ash from the 2010 and 2011 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn volcanoes, Iceland using a rapid respiratory hazard assessment protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horwell, C J; Baxter, P J; Hillman, S E; Calkins, J A; Damby, D E; Delmelle, P; Donaldson, K; Dunster, C; Fubini, B; Kelly, F J; Le Blond, J S; Livi, K J T; Murphy, F; Nattrass, C; Sweeney, S; Tetley, T D; Thordarson, T; Tomatis, M

    2013-11-01

    The six week eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 produced heavy ash fall in a sparsely populated area of southern and south eastern Iceland and disrupted European commercial flights for at least 6 days. We adopted a protocol for the rapid analysis of volcanic ash particles, for the purpose of informing respiratory health risk assessments. Ash collected from deposits underwent a multi-laboratory physicochemical and toxicological investigation of their mineralogical parameters associated with bio-reactivity, and selected in vitro toxicology assays related to pulmonary inflammatory responses. Ash from the eruption of Grímsvötn, Iceland, in 2011 was also studied. The results were benchmarked against ash from Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, which has been extensively studied since the onset of eruptive activity in 1995. For Eyjafjallajökull, the grain size distributions were variable: 2-13 vol% of the bulk samples were <4 µm, with the most explosive phases of the eruption generating abundant respirable particulate matter. In contrast, the Grímsvötn ash was almost uniformly coarse (<3.5 vol%<4 µm material). Surface area ranged from 0.3 to 7.7 m2 g(-1) for Eyjafjallajökull but was very low for Grímsvötn (<0.6 m2 g(-1)). There were few fibre-like particles (which were unrelated to asbestos) and the crystalline silica content was negligible in both eruptions, whereas Soufrière Hills ash was cristobalite-rich with a known potential to cause silicosis. All samples displayed a low ability to deplete lung antioxidant defences, showed little haemolysis and low acute cytotoxicity in human alveolar type-1 like epithelial cells (TT1). However, cell-free tests showed substantial hydroxyl radical generation in the presence of hydrogen peroxide for Grímsvötn samples, as expected for basaltic, Fe-rich ash. Cellular mediators MCP-1, IL-6, and IL-8 showed chronic pro-inflammatory responses in Eyjafjallajökull, Grímsvötn and Soufrière Hills samples

  18. Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

    2007-05-01

    A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

  19. Digital Data for Volcano Hazards of the Mount Hood Region, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Scott, W.E.; Pierson, T.C.; Costa, J.E.; Gardner, C.A.; Vallance, J.W.; Major, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    Snow-clad Mount Hood dominates the Cascade skyline from the Portland metropolitan area to the wheat fields of Wasco and Sherman Counties. The mountain contributes valuable water, scenic, and recreational resources that help sustain the agricultural and tourist segments of the economies of surrounding cities and counties. Mount Hood is also one of the major volcanoes of the Cascade Range, having erupted repeatedly for hundreds of thousands of years, most recently during two episodes in the past 1,500 yr. The last episode ended shortly before the arrival of Lewis and Clark in 1805. When Mount Hood erupts again, it will severely affect areas on its flanks and far downstream in the major river valleys that head on the volcano. Volcanic ash may fall on areas up to several hundred kilometers downwind. The purpose of the volcano hazard report USGS Open-File Report 97-89 (Scott and others, 1997) is to describe the kinds of hazardous geologic events that have happened at Mount Hood in the past and to show which areas will be at risk when such events occur in the future. This data release contains the geographic information system (GIS) data layers used to produce the Mount Hood volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 97-89. Both proximal and distal hazard zones were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various volcano hazard areas around the mountain. A second data layer contains points that indicate estimated travel times of lahars.

  20. Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Norini, G.; Groppelli, G.; Macías, J. L.; Arce, J. L.

    2008-10-01

    The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ˜ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.

  1. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    Since 1992, mild but persistent seismic and fumarolic unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano has prompted renewed concern about hazards and risks, crisis response planning, and has rejuvenated interest in geological studies. Scientists monitoring active volcanoes frequently have to provide science-based decision support to civil authorities during such periods of unrest. In these circumstances, the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) offers a formalized evidence analysis tool for making inferences about the state of the volcano from different strands of data, allowing associated uncertainties to be treated in a rational and auditable manner, to the extent warranted by the strength of the evidence. To illustrate the principles of the BBN approach, a retrospective analysis is undertaken of the 1975-77 crisis, providing an inferential assessment of the evolving state of the magmatic system and the probability of subsequent eruption. Conditional dependencies and parameters in the BBN are characterized quantitatively by structured expert elicitation. Revisiting data available in 1976 suggests the probability of magmatic intrusion would have been evaluated high at the time, according with subsequent thinking about the volcanological nature of the episode. The corresponding probability of a magmatic eruption therefore would have been elevated in July and August 1976; however, collective uncertainty about the future course of the crisis was great at the time, even if some individual opinions were certain. From this BBN analysis, while the more likely appraised outcome - based on observational trends at 31 August 1976 - might have been 'no eruption' (mean probability 0.5; 5-95 percentile range 0.8), an imminent magmatic eruption (or blast) could have had a probability of about 0.4, almost as substantial. Thus, there was no real scientific basis to assert one scenario was more likely than the other. This retrospective evaluation adds objective probabilistic expression to

  2. Volcanic Stratigraphy and Potential Hazards of the Chihsingshan Volcano Subgroup in the Tatun Volcano Group, Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Wei Tsai

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chihsingshan Volcano Subgroup (CVSG is one of the most important landforms located within the Tatun Volcano Group in northern Taiwan. Based on a Digital Terrain Model, contour maps and field investigations, the CVSG can be divided into four types of volcanic landforms: (1 a strato- or composite volcano, Chihsingshan; (2 domes, the Shamaoshan and a hidden unit; (3 lava cones, the Baiyunshan and the Hsiaotsaoshan; and (4 a scoria cone, the Chikushan. Meanwhile, many small craters are distributed linearly along two northeast trending normal-fault systems. The occurrences are predominantly lava flows with subsidiary fall deposits, pyroclastic flows, and lahars in which at least twenty layers of lava flow in the CVSG can be recognized. Among them, 16 layers in the Chihsingshan volcano, named as C1 - C16, two in the Baiyunshan, B1 - B2, and two in the Hsiaotsaoshan, H1 - H2. Our study suggests that the potential volcanic hazards include lava and pyroclastic flows and simultaneous or subsequent lahars, if the Chihsingshan erupts in a similar manner as in the past. A volcanic hazard zonation map can be constructed for the purpose of mitigation assuming the future eruptive center and eruptive volume.

  3. Lava flow hazard at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, before and after the 2014-2015 eruption

    OpenAIRE

    Richter, Nicole; Favalli, Massimiliano; de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Elske; Fornaciai, Alessandro; Silva Fernandes, Rui Manuel; Pérez, Nemesio M.; Levy, Judith; Victória, Sónia Silva; Thomas R. Walter

    2016-01-01

    Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014&ndash...

  4. Digital Data for Volcano Hazards in the Mount Jefferson Region, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Walder, J.S.; Gardner, C.A.; Conrey, R.M.; Fisher, B.J.

    2008-01-01

    Mount Jefferson has erupted repeatedly for hundreds of thousands of years, with its last eruptive episode during the last major glaciation which culminated about 15,000 years ago. Geologic evidence shows that Mount Jefferson is capable of large explosive eruptions. The largest such eruption occurred between 35,000 and 100,000 years ago. If Mount Jefferson erupts again, areas close to the eruptive vent will be severely affected, and even areas tens of kilometers (tens of miles) downstream along river valleys or hundreds of kilometers (hundreds of miles) downwind may be at risk. Numerous small volcanoes occupy the area between Mount Jefferson and Mount Hood to the north, and between Mount Jefferson and the Three Sisters region to the south. These small volcanoes tend not to pose the far-reaching hazards associated with Mount Jefferson, but are nonetheless locally important. A concern at Mount Jefferson, but not at the smaller volcanoes, is the possibility that small-to-moderate sized landslides could occur even during periods of no volcanic activity. Such landslides may transform as they move into lahars (watery flows of rock, mud, and debris) that can inundate areas far downstream. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layer used to produce the Mount Jefferson volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 99-24 (Walder and others, 1999) is included in this data set. Both proximal and distal hazard zones were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various volcano hazard areas around the mountain.

  5. Digital Data for Volcano Hazards of the Three Sisters Region, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Scott, W.E.; Iverson, R.M.

    2008-01-01

    Three Sisters is one of three active volcanic centers that lie close to rapidly growing communities and resort areas in Central Oregon. The major composite volcanoes of this area are clustered near the center of the region and include South Sister, Middle Sister, and Broken Top. Additionally, hundreds of mafic volcanoes are scattered throughout the Three Sisters area. These range from small cinder cones to large shield volcanoes like North Sister and Belknap Crater. Hazardous events include landslides from the steep flanks of large volcanoes and floods, which need not be triggered by eruptions, as well as eruption-triggered events such as fallout of tephra (volcanic ash) and lava flows. A proximal hazard zone roughly 20 kilometers (12 miles) in diameter surrounding the Three Sisters and Broken Top could be affected within minutes of the onset of an eruption or large landslide. Distal hazard zones that follow river valleys downstream from the Three Sisters and Broken Top could be inundated by lahars (rapid flows of water-laden rock and mud) generated either by melting of snow and ice during eruptions or by large landslides. Slow-moving lava flows could issue from new mafic volcanoes almost anywhere within the region. Fallout of tephra from eruption clouds can affect areas hundreds of kilometers (miles) downwind, so eruptions at volcanoes elsewhere in the Cascade Range also contribute to volcano hazards in Central Oregon. Scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory created a geographic information system (GIS) data set which depicts proximal and distal lahar hazard zones as well as a regional lava flow hazard zone for Three Sisters (USGS Open-File Report 99-437, Scott and others, 1999). The various distal lahar zones were constructed from LaharZ software using 20, 100, and 500 million cubic meter input flow volumes. Additionally, scientists used the depositional history of past events in the Three Sisters Region as well as experience and judgment derived from the

  6. Review and reassessment of hazards owing to volcano-glacier interactions in Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Ceballos, Jorge Luis; Pulgarín, Bernardo; Ramírez, Jair; Thouret, Jean-Claude

    The Cordillera Central in Colombia hosts four important glacier-clad volcanoes, namely Nevado del Ruiz, Nevado de Santa Isabel, Nevado del Tolima and Nevado del Huila. Public and scientific attention has been focused on volcano-glacier hazards in Colombia and worldwide by the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz/Armero catastrophe, the world's largest volcano-glacier disaster. Important volcanological and glaciological studies were undertaken after 1985. However, recent decades have brought strong changes in ice mass extent, volume and structure as a result of atmospheric warming. Population has grown and with it the sizes of numerouscommunities located around the volcanoes. This study reviews and reassesses the current conditions of and changes in the glaciers, the interaction processes between ice and volcanic activity and the resulting hazards. Results show a considerable hazard potential from Nevados delRuiz, Tolima and Huila. Explosive activity within environments of snow and ice as well as non-eruption-related mass movements induced by unstable slopes, or steep and fractured glaciers, can produce avalanches that are likely to be transformed into highly mobile debris flows. Such events can have severe consequences for the downstream communities. Integrated monitoring strategies are therefore essential for early detection of emerging activity that may result in hazardous volcano-ice interaction. Corresponding efforts are currently being strengthened within the framework of international programmes.

  7. An overview of a GIS method for mapping landslides and assessing landslide hazards at Río El Estado watershed, on the SW flank of Pico de Orizaba Volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legorreta Paulin, G.; Bursik, M. I.; Contreras, T.; Polenz, M.; Ramírez Herrera, M.; Paredes Mejía, L.; Arana Salinas, L.

    2012-12-01

    This poster provides an overview of the on-going research project (Grant SEP-CONACYT no 167495) from the Institute of Geography at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) that seeks to conduct a multi-temporal landslide inventory, produce a landslide susceptibility map, and estimate sediment production by using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The Río El Estado watershed on the southwestern flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico, is selected as a study area. The catchment covers 5.2 km2 with elevations ranging from 2676.79 to 4248.2 m a.s.l. and hillslopes between 0° and 56°. The stream system of Río El Estado catchment erodes Tertiary and Quaternary lavas, pyroclastic flows, and fall deposits. The geologic and geomorphologic factors in combination with high seasonal precipitation, high degree of weathering, and steep slopes predispose the study area to landslides. The methodology encompasses three main stages of analysis to assess landslide hazards: Stage 1 builds a historic landslide inventory. In the study area, an inventory of more than 170 landslides is created from multi-temporal aerial-photo-interpretation and local field surveys to assess landslide distribution. All landslides were digitized into a geographic information system (GIS), and a spatial geo-database of landslides was constructed from standardized GIS datasets. Stage 2 Calculates the susceptibility for the watershed. During this stage, Multiple Logistic Regression and SINMAP) will be evaluated to select the one that provides scientific accuracy, technical accessibility, and applicability. Stage 3 Estimate the potential total material delivered to the main stream drainage channel by all landslides in the catchment. Detailed geometric measurements of individual landslides visited during the field work will be carried out to obtain the landslide area and volume. These measurements revealed an empirical relationship between area and volume that took the

  8. Digital Data for Volcano Hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, Revised 1998

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Hoblitt, R.P.; Walder, J.S.; Driedger, C.L.; Scott, K.M.; Pringle, P.T.; Vallance, J.W.

    2008-01-01

    Mount Rainier at 4393 meters (14,410 feet) is the highest peak in the Cascade Range; a dormant volcano having glacier ice that exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose. The volcano's past behavior is the best guide to possible future hazards. The written history (about A.D. 1820) of Mount Rainier includes one or two small eruptions, several small debris avalanches, and many small lahars (debris flows originating on a volcano). In addition, prehistoric deposits record the types, magnitudes, and frequencies of other events, and areas that were affected. Mount Rainier deposits produced since the latest ice age (approximately during the past 10,000 years) are well preserved. Studies of these deposits indicate we should anticipate potential hazards in the future. Some phenomena only occur during eruptions such as tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and surges, ballistic projectiles, and lava flows while others may occur without eruptive activity such as debris avalanches, lahars, and floods. The five geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Mount Rainier volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 98-428 (Hoblitt and others, 1998) are included in this data set. Case 1, case 2, and case 3 layers were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various lahar innundation zones around the mountain. Two additional layers delineate areas that may be affected by post-lahar sedimentation (postlahar layer) and pyroclastic flows (pyroclastic layer).

  9. Tephra-Producing Eruptions of Holocene Age at Akutan Volcano, Alaska; Frequency, Magnitude, and Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waythomas, C. F.; Wallace, K. L.; Schwaiger, H.

    2012-12-01

    Aleutian arc volcanoes. Tephra deposits from typical VEI 2 historical eruptions are not well preserved on the island so tephra-fall frequency estimated from stratigraphic studies is underestimated. Akutan Island is home to the largest seafood processing plant in North America and has a workforce of more than one thousand people. Other infrastructure consists of a recently constructed paved airfield on neighboring Akun Island (25 km east of the active vent) and a new boat harbor at the head of Akutan Harbor. Plans to develop greenhouses, tourism, and increased cold storage capacity on Akutan and Akun Islands also are evolving. To support the power demands of the development efforts, The City of Akutan is considering the utilization of geothermal resources on the island that are located in Hot Springs Bay valley northwest of the city. All of the existing and planned infrastructure, water supply, and residential areas are about 12 km downwind (east) of the volcano and are at risk from ash-producing eruptions. The historical eruptive history suggests that VEI 2 eruptions are plausible in the near future and the Holocene tephra-fall record indicates that large eruptions (VEI 4 or larger) occur about every few thousand years. Numerical modeling of tephra fallout based on the record of ash-producing eruptions will be used to improve tephra-fall hazard assessments for the area.

  10. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, J.

    2007-04-01

    An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.

  11. Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

    2014-05-01

    The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

  12. VHub - Cyberinfrastructure for volcano eruption and hazards modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentine, G. A.; Jones, M. D.; Bursik, M. I.; Calder, E. S.; Gallo, S. M.; Connor, C.; Carn, S. A.; Rose, W. I.; Moore-Russo, D. A.; Renschler, C. S.; Pitman, B.; Sheridan, M. F.

    2009-12-01

    Volcanic risk is increasing as populations grow in active volcanic regions, and as national economies become increasingly intertwined. In addition to their significance to risk, volcanic eruption processes form a class of multiphase fluid dynamics with rich physics on many length and time scales. Risk significance, physics complexity, and the coupling of models to complex dynamic spatial datasets all demand the development of advanced computational techniques and interdisciplinary approaches to understand and forecast eruption dynamics. Innovative cyberinfrastructure is needed to enable global collaboration and novel scientific creativity, while simultaneously enabling computational thinking in real-world risk mitigation decisions - an environment where quality control, documentation, and traceability are key factors. Supported by NSF, we are developing a virtual organization, referred to as VHub, to address this need. Overarching goals of the VHub project are: Dissemination. Make advanced modeling and simulation capabilities and key data sets readily available to researchers, students, and practitioners around the world. Collaboration. Provide a mechanism for participants not only to be users but also co-developers of modeling capabilities, and contributors of experimental and observational data sets for use in modeling and simulation, in a collaborative environment that reaches far beyond local work groups. Comparison. Facilitate comparison between different models in order to provide the practitioners with guidance for choosing the "right" model, depending upon the intended use, and provide a platform for multi-model analysis of specific problems and incorporation into probabilistic assessments. Application. Greatly accelerate access and application of a wide range of modeling tools and related data sets to agencies around the world that are charged with hazard planning, mitigation, and response. Education. Provide resources that will promote the training of the

  13. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough...... be a poor substitute for a proper risk assessment as low potency substances can constitute a risk if the exposure is high enough and vice versa. Examples illustrating the strength and limitations of hazard classification, risk assessment and toxicological potency will be presented with focus on reproductive...

  14. USGS GNSS Applications to Volcano Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisowski, M.; McCaffrey, R.

    2015-12-01

    Volcanic unrest is often identified by increased rates of seismicity, deformation, or the release of volcanic gases. Deformation results when ascending magma accumulates in crustal reservoirs, creates new pathways to the surface, or drains from magma reservoirs to feed an eruption. This volcanic deformation is overprinted by deformation from tectonic processes. GNSS monitoring of volcanoes captures transient volcanic deformation and steady and transient tectonic deformation, and we use the TDEFNODE software to unravel these effects. We apply the technique on portions of the Cascades Volcanic arc in central Oregon and in southern Washington that include a deforming volcano. In central Oregon, the regional TDEFNODE model consists of several blocks that rotate and deform internally and a decaying inflationary volcanic pressure source to reproduce the crustal bulge centered ~5 km west of South Sister. We jointly invert 47 interferograms that cover the interval from 1992 to 2010, as well as 2001 to 2015 continuous GNSS (cGNSS) and survey-mode (sGNSS) time series from stations in and around the Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake areas. A single, smoothly-decaying ~5 km deep spherical or prolate spheroid volcanic pressure source activated around 1998 provides the best fit to the combined geodetic data. In southern Washington, GNSS displacement time-series track decaying deflation of a ~8 km deep magma reservoir that fed the 2004 to 2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens. That deformation reversed when it began to recharge after the eruption ended. Offsets from slow slip events on the Cascadia subduction zone punctuate the GNSS displacement time series, and we remove them by estimating source parameters for these events. This regional TDEFNODE model extends from Mount Rainier south to Mount Hood, and additional volcanic sources could be added if these volcanoes start deforming. Other TDEFNODE regional models are planned for northern Washington (Mount Baker and Glacier

  15. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-02-28

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program.

  16. Update of map the volcanic hazard in the Ceboruco volcano, Nayarit, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M. A.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Ceboruco Volcano (21° 7.688 N, 104° 30.773 W) is located in the northwestern part of the Tepic-Zacoalco graben. Its volcanic activity can be divided in four eruptive cycles differentiated by their VEI and chemical variations as well. As a result of andesitic effusive activity, the "paleo-Ceboruco" edifice was constructed during the first cycle. The end of this cycle is defined by a plinian eruption (VEI between 3 and 4) which occurred some 1020 years ago and formed the external caldera. During the second cycle an andesitic dome built up in the interior of the caldera. The dome collapsed and formed the internal caldera. The third cycle is represented by andesitic lava flows which partially cover the northern and south-southwestern part of the edifice. The last cycle is represented by the andesitic lava flows of the nineteenth century located in the southwestern flank of the volcano. Actually, moderate fumarolic activity occurs in the upper part of the volcano showing temperatures ranging between 20° and 120°C. Some volcanic high frequency tremors have also been registered near the edifice. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 1998, where we identify with SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east sides of the Ceboruco volcano. The population inhabiting the area is 70,224 people in 2010, concentrated in 107 localities and growing at an annual rate of 0.37%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by highway, high road, railroad, and the construction of new highway to Puerto Vallarta, which is built in the southeast sector of the volcano and electrical infrastructure that connect the Cajon and Yesca Dams to Guadalajara city. The most important economic activity in the area is agriculture, with crops of sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum), corn, and jamaica

  17. Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

    2015-04-01

    Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the

  18. Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

    2016-04-01

    Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

  19. Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Titov, V.V.; Mofjeld, H.O.; Venturato, A.J.; Simmons, R.S.; Hansen, R.; Combellick, R.; Eisner, R.K.; Hoirup, D.F.; Yanagi, B.S.; Yong, S.; Darienzo, M.; Priest, G.R.; Crawford, G.L.; Walsh, T.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Hazard Assessment component of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program has completed 22 modeling efforts covering 113 coastal communities with an estimated population of 1.2 million residents that are at risk. Twenty-three evacuation maps have also been completed. Important improvements in organizational structure have been made with the addition of two State geotechnical agency representatives to Steering Group membership, and progress has been made on other improvements suggested by program reviewers. ?? Springer 2005.

  20. Probability hazard map for future vent opening at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brancato, Alfonso; Tusa, Giuseppina; Coltelli, Mauro; Proietti, Cristina

    2014-05-01

    Mount Etna is a composite stratovolcano located along the Ionian coast of eastern Sicily. The frequent flank eruptions occurrence (at an interval of years, mostly concentrated along the NE, S and W rift zones) lead to a high volcanic hazard that, linked with intense urbanization, poses a high volcanic risk. A long-term volcanic hazard assessment, mainly based on the past behaviour of the Etna volcano, is the basic tool for the evaluation of this risk. Then, a reliable forecast where the next eruption will occur is needed. A computer-assisted analysis and probabilistic evaluations will provide the relative map, thus allowing identification of the areas prone to the highest hazard. Based on these grounds, the use of a code such BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting) showed that a suitable analysis can be explored (Selva et al., 2012). Following an analysis we are performing, a total of 6886 point-vents referring to the last 4.0 ka of Etna flank activity, and spread over an area of 744 km2 (divided into N=2976 squared cell, with side of 500 m), allowed us to estimate a pdf by applying a Gaussian kernel. The probability values represent a complete set of outcomes mutually exclusive and the relative sum is normalized to one over the investigated area; then, the basic assumptions of a Dirichlet distribution (the prior distribution set in the BET_EF code (Marzocchi et al., 2004, 2008)) still hold. One fundamental parameter is the the equivalent number of data, that depicts our confidence on the best guess probability. The BET_EF code also works with a likelihood function. This is modelled by a Multinomial distribution, with parameters representing the number of vents in each cell and the total number of past data (i.e. the 6886 point-vents). Given the grid of N cells, the final posterior distribution will be evaluated by multiplying the a priori Dirichlet probability distribution with the past data in each cell through the likelihood. The probability hazard map

  1. The significance of SAR remote sensing in volcano-geology for hazard and resource potential mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saepuloh, Asep; Bakker, Erwin; Suminar, Wulan

    2017-07-01

    Geological mapping at volcanic terrain is crucial for providing accurate information related to the distribution of volcanic products and volcano-related structures. The volcano-geology map is basis information, not only for hazard mitigation related to volcanic activity, but also for resource exploration as well as scientific purposes. Therefore, the accurate detection and observation of volcanic products and their genetics are necessary for volcano-geology mapping. The classical problem at Torrid Zone such as cloud, dense vegetation, heavy weathering, and erosion usually hamper the detection and observation of volcanic products and their structures. Moreover, the stratigraphic of volcanic products generally follows paleo-topography which was buried by the products. Overcoming the problem, we exploited the applicability of remotely sensed data to provide the great assistance for field based observations at volcanic field in Indonesia. The Geomorphologic and Structural Features (GSF) of the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) are the selected parameters to define the distribution of the volcanic products. We explained about the significant of SAR identification to detect and interpret volcano-geology parameters such as eruption centers, volcanic products, depositional mechanisms, and volcanic structures especially at complex of volcanoes. The fall and flowing mechanisms controlled the depositional process were also analyzed to obtain the genetic of volcanic products. For young volcanoes, the quantitative techniques based on SAR surface roughness and polarized signatures are effective to identify volcanic formations and their sources. However, for old volcanoes the visual analyses of GSF is superior to identify the volcanic units and structures. We selected two volcanic complexes at Mts. Guntur and Malabar in West Java (Indonesia) presenting the young and old volcanic field characteristics under Torrid Zone condition.

  2. Evolving Hazard Monitoring and Communication at San Vicente Volcano, El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, L. J.; Gierke, J. S.

    2014-12-01

    El Salvador has 20 potentially active volcanoes, four of which have erupted in the last 100 years. Since San Vicente Volcano has had no historic eruptions, monitoring is not a high priority; especially given the current eruptive crisis at San Miguel Volcano. Though probability of eruptive hazards remains low at San Vicente, it is arguably one of the most hazardous volcanoes in the country due to rainfall-induced landslides and debris-flow risk. At least 250 deaths occurred in November 2009 from landslides and debris flows triggered by Hurricane Ida. This disaster caused the Universidad de El Salvador - Facultad Multidisciplinaria Paracentral (UES-FMP, San Vicente, El Salvador) to partner with governmental and nongovernmental organizations (including the U.S. Peace Corps, U.S. Fulbright Program, Korean International Cooperation Agency, Protección Civil and the Centro de Protección para Desastres (CEPRODE)) to focus its faculty and student research toward hazard monitoring and risk studies. Newly established monitoring efforts include: measurement of surface cracks and localized rainfall by Protección Civil and local residents using crude extensometers and rain gauges; installation of six weather stations that operate within the most at-risk municipalities; seismic refraction surveys to better characterize stratigraphy and seasonal water table changes; and most recently, a USAID/NSF-funded initiative partnered with the UES-FMP to monitor seasonal hydrologic conditions related to flooding and groundwater recharge. The information from these initiatives is now used to communicate current conditions and warnings through a network of two-way radios established by CEPRODE and Protección Civil. Representatives from the multi-institutional team also communicate the data to authorities who make better-informed decisions regarding warnings and evacuations, as well as determine suitable areas for population relocation in the event of a crisis. Data will eventually be used

  3. Hazard information management, interagency coordination, and impacts of the 2005-2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano: Chapter 28 in The 2006 eruption of Augustine Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Christina A.; Murray, Thomas L.; Power, John A.; Adleman, Jennifer N.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Osiensky, Jeffery M.; Power, John A.; Coombs, Michelle L.; Freymueller, Jeffrey T.

    2010-01-01

    Dissemination of volcano-hazard information in coordination with other Federal, State, and local agencies is a primary responsibility of the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO). During the 2005-6 eruption of Augustine Volcano in Alaska, AVO used existing interagency relationships and written protocols to provide hazard guidance before, during, and after eruptive events. The 2005-6 eruption was notable because of the potential for volcanogenic tsunami, which required establishment of a new procedure for alerts of possible landslide-induced tsunami in Cook Inlet. Despite repeated ash-cloud generating explosions and far-traveled ash clouds, impacts from the event were relatively minor. Primary economic losses occurred when air carriers chose to avoid flights into potentially unsafe conditions. Post-eruption evaluations by agencies involved in the response indicated weaknesses in information centralization and availability of specific information regarding ash fall hazards in real time.

  4. Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public.

  5. Retrospective validation of a lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciro Del Negro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and through characterization of the event types for the numerical simulations and the computation of the eruptive probabilities. Numerical simulations of lava-flow paths were carried out using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. To validate the methodology developed, a hazard map was built by considering only the eruptions that occurred at Mount Etna before 1981. On the basis of the probability of coverage by lava flows, the map was divided into ten classes, and two fitting scores were calculated to measure the overlap between the hazard classes and the actual shapes of the lava flows that occurred after 1981.

  6. Development and application of indices using large volcanic databases for a global hazard and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Sarah; Auker, Melanie; Cottrell, Elizabeth; Delgado Granados, Hugo; Loughlin, Sue; Ortiz Guerrero, Natalie; Sparks, Steve; Vye-Brown, Charlotte; Taskforce, Indices

    2015-04-01

    The Global Volcano Model (GVM) and IAVCEI were commissioned by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction to produce a global assessment of volcanic hazard and risk for the Global Assessment Report 2015 (GAR15). This involved presenting both an introduction to volcanology and developing indices to assess hazard and risk on a global scale. To this end two open-access databases were of utmost importance: the Global Volcanism Program's Volcanoes of the World (http://www.volcano.si.edu) and the Large Magnitude Explosive Volcanic Eruptions database (LaMEVE; http://www.bgs.ac.uk/vogripa/). Indices were developed to enable a relative global assessment cognisant of data uncertainty and availability to broadly identify how hazard and risk varies around the world, the extent of monitoring and strengths and limitations in knowledge. The accessibility of both physical (e.g. volcano, eruption) and social data is crucial to our understanding of past behaviour, forecasting probable future behaviour and the potential impacts on communities. Such data is regionally highly variable and the eruption record worsens back in time. The Volcanic Hazard Index (VHI) was designed to quantify hazard levels globally, based on the Holocene eruption record. Vulnerability to eruptions was measured using the Population Exposure Index, which weights the population within 100 km of volcanoes by area and historical fatalities. The combination of these indices provides an indicator of population risk at individual volcanoes. The VHI was also combined with the total populations living within 30 km of volcanoes in each country to develop an understanding of the global distribution of volcano threat, and to rank countries by this measure. About half of the historically active volcanoes have insufficient information to adequately calculate VHI and these are highlighted as requiring future research. A database currently in development, GLOVOREMID, collates monitoring data to understand

  7. A Sinuous Tumulus over an Active Lava Tube at Klauea Volcano: Evolution, Analogs, and Hazard Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Tim R.; Bleacher, Jacob E.; Patrick, Matthew R.; Wooten, Kelly M.

    2015-01-01

    Inflation of narrow tube-fed basaltic lava flows (tens of meters across), such as those confined by topography, can be focused predominantly along the roof of a lava tube. This can lead to the development of an unusually long tumulus, its shape matching the sinuosity of the underlying lava tube. Such a situation occurred during Klauea Volcanos (Hawaii, USA) ongoing East Rift Zone eruption on a lava tube active from July through November 2010. Short-lived breakouts from the tube buried the flanks of the sinuous, ridge-like tumulus, while the tumulus crest, its surface composed of lava formed very early in the flows emplacement history, remained poised above the surrounding younger flows. At least several of these breakouts resulted in irrecoverable uplift of the tube roof. Confined sections of the prehistoric Carrizozo and McCartys flows (New Mexico, USA) display similar sinuous, ridge-like features with comparable surface age relationships. We contend that these distinct features formed in a fashion equivalent to that of the sinuous tumulus that formed at Kilauea in 2010. Moreover, these sinuous tumuli may be analogs for some sinuous ridges evident in orbital images of the Tharsis volcanic province on Mars. The short-lived breakouts from the sinuous tumulus at Kilauea were caused by surges in discharge through the lava tube, in response to cycles of deflation and inflation (DI events) at Kilauea's summit. The correlation between DI events and subsequent breakouts aided in lava flow forecasting. Breakouts from the sinuous tumulus advanced repeatedly toward the sparsely populated Kalapana Gardens subdivision, destroying two homes and threatening others. Hazard assessments, including flow occurrence and advance forecasts, were relayed regularly to the Hawai?i County Civil Defense to aid their lava flow hazard mitigation efforts while this lava tube was active.

  8. Hazard assessment of explosive volcanism at Somma-Vesuvius

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    G. Mastrolorenzo; L. Pappalardo

    2010-01-01

    ...) class, in the Vesuvius area and its surroundings including Naples. Particularly, eruptions with VEI 3 would produce a fallout hazard within about 10 km mostly east of the volcano and a PDC hazard within about 2 km from the crater...

  9. Hazard assessment of vegetated slopes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norris, J.E.; Greenwood, J.R.; Achim, A.; Gardiner, B.A.; Nicoll, B.C.; Cammeraat, E.; Mickovski, S.B.; Norris, J.E.; Stokes, A.; Mickovski, S.B.; Cammeraat, E.; van Beek, R.; Nicoll, B.C.; Achim, A.

    2008-01-01

    The hazard assessment of vegetated slopes are reviewed and discussed in terms of the stability of the slope both with and without vegetation, soil erosion and the stability of the vegetated slope from windthrow and snow loading. Slope stability can be determined by using either limit equilibrium or

  10. Hazard assessment of vegetated slopes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.E. Norris; J.R. Greenwood; A. Achim; B.A. Gardiner; B.C. Nicoll; E. Cammeraat; S.B. Mickovski

    2008-01-01

    The hazard assessment of vegetated slopes are reviewed and discussed in terms of the stability of the slope both with and without vegetation, soil erosion and the stability of the vegetated slope from windthrow and snow loading. Slope stability can be determined by using either limit equilibrium or

  11. Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the

  12. Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, Miguel A.; Delgado-Granados, Hugo; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2012-11-01

    During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles' maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum "launching" conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

  13. Volcano electrical tomography unveils edifice collapse hazard linked to hydrothermal system structure and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas-Carbajal, Marina; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Nicollin, Florence; Gibert, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Catastrophic collapses of the flanks of stratovolcanoes constitute a major hazard threatening numerous lives in many countries. Although many such collapses occurred following the ascent of magma to the surface, many are not associated with magmatic reawakening but are triggered by a combination of forcing agents such as pore-fluid pressurization and/or mechanical weakening of the volcanic edifice often located above a low-strength detachment plane. The volume of altered rock available for collapse, the dynamics of the hydrothermal fluid reservoir and the geometry of incipient collapse failure planes are key parameters for edifice stability analysis and modelling that remain essentially hidden to current volcano monitoring techniques. Here we derive a high-resolution, three-dimensional electrical conductivity model of the La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano from extensive electrical tomography data. We identify several highly conductive regions in the lava dome that are associated to fluid saturated host-rock and preferential flow of highly acid hot fluids within the dome. We interpret this model together with the existing wealth of geological and geochemical data on the volcano to demonstrate the influence of the hydrothermal system dynamics on the hazards associated to collapse-prone altered volcanic edifices. PMID:27457494

  14. Effect of gas emissions from Tianchi volcano (NE China) on environment and its potential volcanic hazards

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO; Zhengfu; LIU; Jiaqi; HAN; Jingtai; HE; Huaiyu; DAI; Guoliang; YOU; Haitao

    2006-01-01

    The Tianchi volcano in the Changbai Mountains is located on the boundary between China and North Korea. There are many times of eruptions of the Tianchi volcano during the Holocene. One of its large eruptions occurred around 1000 years ago dated by 14C method and historical records. Composition of products of the largest Tianchi volcanic eruption studied is characterized by comenditic Plinian fallout and unwelded ignimbrite, which are mainly distributed in China and North Korea. Caldera is about 4.4 km long and 3.4 km wide, which had filled with water (e.g. Tianchi Lake). The Tianchi volcanic cone is about 2700 m high above sea level. The Tianchi Lake is located on the summit of the volcanic cone, that is also highest peak of the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China. This study analyzed Cl, F, S and H2O concentrations of melt inclusions in the phenocryst minerals (anorthoclase and quartz) and co-existing matrix glasses using the electron microprobe and estimated environmental effect of Tianchi volcanic gases. The authors proposed a new method to evaluate future eruption of active volcano and estimate potential volcanic hazards based on contents of volatile emissions. Using this method, we made a perspective of future volcanic hazard in this region.

  15. Volcano electrical tomography unveils edifice collapse hazard linked to hydrothermal system structure and dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosas-Carbajal, Marina; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Nicollin, Florence; Gibert, Dominique

    2016-07-26

    Catastrophic collapses of the flanks of stratovolcanoes constitute a major hazard threatening numerous lives in many countries. Although many such collapses occurred following the ascent of magma to the surface, many are not associated with magmatic reawakening but are triggered by a combination of forcing agents such as pore-fluid pressurization and/or mechanical weakening of the volcanic edifice often located above a low-strength detachment plane. The volume of altered rock available for collapse, the dynamics of the hydrothermal fluid reservoir and the geometry of incipient collapse failure planes are key parameters for edifice stability analysis and modelling that remain essentially hidden to current volcano monitoring techniques. Here we derive a high-resolution, three-dimensional electrical conductivity model of the La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano from extensive electrical tomography data. We identify several highly conductive regions in the lava dome that are associated to fluid saturated host-rock and preferential flow of highly acid hot fluids within the dome. We interpret this model together with the existing wealth of geological and geochemical data on the volcano to demonstrate the influence of the hydrothermal system dynamics on the hazards associated to collapse-prone altered volcanic edifices.

  16. Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

    2016-12-01

    Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban

  17. Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or more from a volcano. Before a Volcanic Eruption The following are things you can do to ... in case of an emergency. During a Volcanic Eruption Follow the evacuation order issued by authorities and ...

  18. Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggie, Travis W

    2009-09-01

    Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

  19. Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faied, D.; Sanchez, A.

    2009-04-01

    Volcano Hazard Tracking and Disaster Risk Mitigation: A Detailed Gap Analysis from Data-Collection to User Implementation Dohy Faied, Aurora Sanchez (on behalf of SSP08 VAPOR Project Team) Dohy.Faied@masters.isunet.edu While numerous global initiatives exist to address the potential hazards posed by volcanic eruption events and assess impacts from a civil security viewpoint, there does not yet exist a single, unified, international system of early warning and hazard tracking for eruptions. Numerous gaps exist in the risk reduction cycle, from data collection, to data processing, and finally dissemination of salient information to relevant parties. As part of the 2008 International Space University's Space Studies Program, a detailed gap analysis of the state of volcano disaster risk reduction was undertaken, and this paper presents the principal results. This gap analysis considered current sensor technologies, data processing algorithms, and utilization of data products by various international organizations. Recommendations for strategies to minimize or eliminate certain gaps are also provided. In the effort to address the gaps, a framework evolved at system level. This framework, known as VIDA, is a tool to develop user requirements for civil security in hazardous contexts, and a candidate system concept for a detailed design phase. VIDA also offers substantial educational potential: the framework includes a centralized clearinghouse for volcanology data which could support education at a variety of levels. Basic geophysical data, satellite maps, and raw sensor data are combined and accessible in a way that allows the relationships between these data types to be explored and used in a training environment. Such a resource naturally lends itself to research efforts in the subject but also research in operational tools, system architecture, and human/machine interaction in civil protection or emergency scenarios.

  20. Improving hazard communication through collaborative participatory workshops: challenges and opportunities experienced at Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Manen, S. M.; Avard, G.; Martinez, M.; de Moor, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    Communication is key to disaster risk management before, during and after a hazardous event occurs. In this study we used a participatory design approach to increase disaster preparedness levels around Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica) in collaboration with local communities. We organised five participatory workshops in communities around Turrialba volcano, 2 in February 2014 and a further 3 in May 2014. A total of 101 people attended and participants included the general public, decision makers and relevant government employees. The main finding of the workshops was that people want more information, specifically regarding 1) the activity level at the volcano and 2) how to prepare. In addition, the source of information was identified as an important factor in communication, with credibility and integrity being key. This outcome highlights a communication gap between the communities at risk and the institutions monitoring the volcano, who publish their scientific results monthly. This strong and explicitly expressed desire for more information should be acknowledged and responded to. However, this gives rise to the challenge of how to communicate: how to change the delivery and/or content of the messages already disseminated for greater effectiveness. In our experience, participatory workshops provide a successful mechanism for effective communication. However, critically evaluating the workshops reveals a number of challenges and opportunities, with the former arising from human, cultural and resource factors, specifically the need to develop people's capacity to participate, whereas the latter is predominantly represented by participant empowerment. As disasters are mostly felt at individual, household and community levels, improving communication, not at but with these stakeholders, is an important component of a comprehensive disaster resilience strategy. This work provides an initial insight into the potential value of participatory design approaches for

  1. Landsat TM and ETM+ Time Sequence of Lahar Hazards on Fuego Volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reif, S. L.; Bluth, G. J.; Rose, W. I.; Matias, O.

    2003-12-01

    Volcanic hazards pose a threat to a large number of the world's population, especially secondary hazards due to remobilization of volcanic material such as landslides and lahars. Many hazard-prone areas would benefit by remote sensing tools for hazard mitigation. In this study, we propose to use remote sensing and GIS techniques to map these hazard prone areas around Fuego volcano, Guatemala and provide information to local organizations to assist in mitigation. Fuego is a steep sided volcano with a history of large eruptive events, including the well-studied 1974 eruption, that have extruded a large amount of material onto the upper reaches of its watersheds. The volcano is well studied, but historically more emphasis has been placed on eruption processes. A study of the way material moves down Fuego and to the extent that it moves is needed to help mitigate the range of potential hazards. We propose an in-depth remote sensing survey to map the hazard-prone areas. The study will consist of processing 20 years (15 cloud-free images) of Landsat TM and ETM+ data to look at changes in landforms and vegetation. Vegetation indices will be calculated to locate areas devoid of vegetation and a masking process will be used These area changes will be related to field measurements to create GIS to measure the area of these zones. layers denoting geometry changes in the channels around Fuego. These changes will be loaded into a GIS, along with regional climate data, DEMs, hydrologic data, infrastructure, and information about the known volcanic activity recorded in the area by the local volcanologists. Modeling of lahars using LAHARZ and climate data will also be done to determine an estimate of the amount of material moved and to what distances it can be transported. A field survey undertaken in January 2003 acquired GPS ground truth data of landslide boundaries and channel volumes for the GIS. The deposits that were seen in the channels 10 km from the source of the sediment

  2. Magnetohydrodynamics and its hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, W.-T.

    1981-11-01

    Potential occupational and environmental hazards of a typical combined open-cycle MHD/steam cycle power plant are critically assessed on the basis of direct/indirect research information. Among the potential occupational hazards, explosion at the coal feed system or at the superconducting magnet; combustor rupture in a confined pit; high intensity dc magnetic field exposure at the channel; and combustion products leakage from the pressurized systems are of primary concern. While environmental emissions of SO(x), NO(x) and fine particulates are considered under control in experimental scale, control effectiveness at high capacity operation remains uncertain. Gaseous emission of some highly toxic trace elements including radioactive species may be of concern without gas cleaning device in the MHD design.

  3. Hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. The area surrounding HWSF, the buildings and structures at HWSF, and the processes used at HWSF are described in this report. All nonradiological hazardous materials at the HWSF were identified (radiological hazardous materials are not stored at HWSF) and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Two of the identified hazardous materials exceeded their specified threshold quantity. This report discusses the potential release scenarios and consequences associated with an accidental release for each of the two identified hazardous materials, lead and mercury. Emergency considerations, such as emergency planning zones, emergency classes, protective actions, and emergency action levels, are also discussed based on the analysis of potential consequences. Evaluation of the potential consequences indicated that the highest emergency class for operational emergencies at the HWSF would be a Site Area Emergency.

  4. Volcanic hazard assessment at Deception Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Geyer, A.; Martí, J.

    2012-04-01

    Deception Island is the most active volcano of the South Shetland Islands (Antarctica) with more than twenty eruptions recognised over the past two centuries. The island was formed on the expansion axis of the Central Bransfield Strait and its evolution consists of constructive and destructive phases. A first a shield phase was followed by the construction of a central edifice and formation of the caldera with a final monogenetic volcanism along the caldera rim. The post-caldera magma composition varies from andesitic-basaltic to dacitic. The activity is characterised by monogenetic eruptions of low volume and short duration. The eruptions show a variable degree of explosivity, strombolian or phreatomagmatic, with a VEI 2 to 4, which have generated a wide variety of pyroclastic deposits and lavas. It is remarkable how many phases of phreatic explosive eruptions are associated to the emission of large ballistic blocks. Tephra record preserved in the glacier ice of Livingston Island or in marine sediments show the explosive power of the phreatomagmatic phases and the wide dispersal of its finest products in a great variety of directions of the prevailing winds. Also it is important to highlight the presence of different lahar deposits associated with some of these eruptions. In this contribution we present the guidelines to conduct a short-term and long-term volcanic hazard assessment at Deception Island. We apply probabilistic methods to estimate the susceptibility, statistical techniques to determine the eruption recurrence and eruptive scenario, and reproduce the effects of historical eruptions too. Volcanic hazard maps and scenarios are obtained using a Voris-based model tool (Felpeto et al., 2007) in a free Geographical Information System (GIS), a Quantum GIS.

  5. NGNP SITE 2 HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wayne Moe

    2011-10-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project initiated at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) by the U.S. Department of Energy pursuant to the 2005 Energy Policy Act, is based on research and development activities supported by the Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems Initiative. The principal objective of the NGNP Project is to support commercialization of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technology. The HTGR is a helium-cooled and graphite-moderated reactor that can operate at temperatures much higher than those of conventional light water reactor (LWR) technologies. Accordingly, it can be applied in many industrial applications as a substitute for burning fossil fuels, such as natural gas, to generate process heat in addition to producing electricity, which is the principal application of current LWRs. Nuclear energy in the form of LWRs has been used in the U.S. and internationally principally for the generation of electricity. However, because the HTGR operates at higher temperatures than LWRs, it can be used to displace the use of fossil fuels in many industrial applications. It also provides a carbon emission-free energy supply. For example, the energy needs for the recovery and refining of petroleum, for the petrochemical industry and for production of transportation fuels and feedstocks using coal conversion processes require process heat provided at temperatures approaching 800 C. This temperature range is readily achieved by the HTGR technology. This report summarizes a site assessment authorized by INL under the NGNP Project to determine hazards and potential challenges that site owners and HTGR designers need to be aware of when developing the HTGR design for co-location at industrial facilities, and to evaluate the site for suitability considering certain site characteristics. The objectives of the NGNP site hazard assessments are to do an initial screening of representative sites in order to identify potential challenges and restraints

  6. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  7. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  8. Volcanoes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In the past thousand years,volcanoes have claimed more than 300,000 lives. Volcanology is ayoung and dangerous science that helps us against the power of the Earth itself.We live on a fiery planet. Nearly 2000 miles beneath our feet, the Earth's inner core reachestemperatures of 12,000 degrees Fahrenheit. Molten rock or magma, rises to the earth's surface. Acold, rigid crust fractured into some twenty plates. When magma breaks through crust it becomes

  9. Virunga Volcanoes Supersite: a collaborative initiative to improve Geohazards Assessment and Monitoring of Active Volcanoes in a highly populated region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balagizi, Charles M.; Mahinda, Celestin K.; Yalire, Mathieu M.; Ciraba, Honoré M.; Mavonga, Georges T.

    2017-04-01

    Located within the western branch of the East African Rift System (EARS), the Virunga Volcanic Province is a young highly volcanically and seismically active region. It provides a unique opportunity to study deep mantle upwelling through the crust. Several Geohazards are encountered in this highly populated region, and include volcanic hazards (lava flows, volcanic gases and ash, …), earthquake hazard; landslide, mud flows and floods hazards. In addition, the overturn of Lake Kivu (which lies in the Kivu Graben, western branch of the EARS) could release huge CO2 and CH4 into the atmosphere. A few days after the January 17, 2002 Nyiragongo eruption whose lava flows devastated Goma city, destroying the houses of ˜120,000 people, forced a mass self-evacuation of ˜300,000 people of Goma (of estimated ˜400,000 inhabitants), and killed ˜140 people; the international scientific community deployed a "dream scientific team" to evaluate the state of Geohazards in the Virunga region. Particularly, the team had to check whether the stability of Lake Kivu that dissolves ˜300 and ˜60 km3 of CO2 and CH4 (at 0˚ C and 1 atm.) in its deep water was not disturbed due to Nyiragongo lava that entered the lake. Since 2002 several projects were funded with the main goal of accompanying the local scientific team to set up a more professional team to assess and continuous monitor Geohazards in the Virunga. For the time being, while Nyiragongo volcano solely threatens ˜1.5 million inhabitants of Goma (DR Congo) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) cities in addition to people living in the surrounding villages, and Lake Kivu threatening ˜3 million inhabitants of its catchment, the local scientists remain less qualified and equipped. Here we show that collaboration between Virunga local scientists and international scientists through the Geohazards Supersites network could be a most efficient pathway to improve Geohazards assessment and monitoring in the Virunga, and hence yield Disaster Risk

  10. Volcanic Hazard Education through Virtual Field studies of Vesuvius and Laki Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions pose significant hazards to human populations and have the potential to cause significant economic impacts as shown by the recent ash-producing eruptions in Iceland. Demonstrating both the local and global impact of eruptions is important for developing an appreciation of the scale of hazards associated with volcanic activity. In order to address this need, Web-based virtual field exercises at Vesuvius volcano in Italy and Laki volcano in Iceland have been developed as curriculum enhancements for undergraduate geology classes. The exercises are built upon previous research by the authors dealing with the 79 AD explosive eruption of Vesuvius and the 1783 lava flow eruption of Laki. Quicktime virtual reality images (QTVR), video clips, user-controlled Flash animations and interactive measurement tools are used to allow students to explore archeological and geological sites, collect field data in an electronic field notebook, and construct hypotheses about the impacts of the eruptions on the local and global environment. The QTVR images provide 360o views of key sites where students can observe volcanic deposits and formations in the context of a defined field area. Video sequences from recent explosive and effusive eruptions of Carribean and Hawaiian volcanoes are used to illustrate specific styles of eruptive activity, such as ash fallout, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava flows and their effects on the surrounding environment. The exercises use an inquiry-based approach to build critical relationships between volcanic processes and the deposits that they produce in the geologic record. A primary objective of the exercises is to simulate the role of a field volcanologist who collects information from the field and reconstructs the sequence of eruptive processes based on specific features of the deposits. Testing of the Vesuvius and Laki exercises in undergraduate classes from a broad spectrum of educational institutions shows a preference for the

  11. Volcanic activity in the Acambay Graben: a < 25 Ka subplinian eruption from the Temascalcingo volcano and implications for volcanic hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Aguirre Díaz, Gerardo; Sunyé Puchol, Ivan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2016-04-01

    The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) contains a large number of stratovolcanoes, some well-known, as Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl, Nevado de Toluca, or Colima and many others of more modest dimensions that are not well known but constitute the majority in the TMVB. Such volcanoes are, for example, Tequila, San Juan, Sangangüey, Cerro Culiacán, Cerro Grande, El Zamorano, La Joya, Palo Huerfano, Jocotitlán, Altamirano and Temascalcingo, among many others. The Temascalcingo volcano (TV) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) at the eastern part of the Acambay Graben (northwest portion of Estado de México). The TV is composed mainly by dacitic, porphyritic lavas, block and ash deposits and subordinate pumice fall deposits and ignimbrites (Roldán-Quintana et al., 2011). The volcanic structure includes a summit caldera that has a rectangular shape, 2.5×3.5 km, with the largest side oriented E-W, parallel to major normal faults affecting the edifice. The San Mateo Pumice eruption is one of the greatest paroxysmal episodes of this volcano with pumice deposits mainly exposed at the scarp of the Acambay-Tixmadeje fault and at the northern and northeastern flanks of TV. It overlies a paleosol dated at 25 Ka. A NE-trending dispersion was obtained from field data covering an area of at least 80 km2. These deposits overlie older lava flows and mud flows and are discontinuously covered and eroded by younger reworked deposits of Temascalcingo volcano. This event represents a highly explosive phase that generated a relatively thick and widespread pumice fallout deposit that may occur again in future eruptions. A similar eruption today would have a significantly impact in the region, overall due to the fact that there has been no systematic assessment of the volcanic hazard in any of the studies that have been conducted so far in the area. So, this is a pending and urgent subject that must be tackled without delay. Financed by

  12. Incorporating Community Knowledge to Lahar Hazard Maps: Canton Buenos Aires Case Study, at Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajo, J. V.; Martinez-Hackert, B.; Polio, C.; Gutierrez, E.

    2015-12-01

    Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano is an active composite volcano located in the Apaneca Volcanic Field located in western part of El Salvador, Central America. The volcano is surrounded by rural communities in its proximal areas and the second (Santa Ana, 13 km) and fourth (Sonsosante, 15 km) largest cities of the country. On October 1st, 2005, the volcano erupted after months of increased activity. Following the eruption, volcanic mitigation projects were conducted in the region, but the communities had little or no input on them. This project consisted in the creation of lahar volcanic hazard map for the Canton Buanos Aires on the northern part of the volcano by incorporating the community's knowledge from prior events to model parameters and results. The work with the community consisted in several meetings where the community members recounted past events. They were asked to map the outcomes of those events using either a topographic map of the area, a Google Earth image, or a blank paper poster size. These maps have been used to identify hazard and vulnerable areas, and for model validation. These maps were presented to the communities and they accepted their results and the maps.

  13. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  14. Volcanic Hazard Map as a Tool of City Planning: Experiences at Galeras Volcano and the county of Pasto, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvache, M. L.

    2001-12-01

    Large populated areas located near active volcanoes emphasize the importance to take effective actions towards risk reduction. A volcanic hazard map is believed to be the first step in order to inform government officials, private institutions and community about the danger that poses a particular volcano. The hazard map is a tool that must be used to evaluate risk and elaborate risk map. The risk map must be used by decision makers to take measurements about the land-use accordingly with the hazard present in the area and to prepare contingency plans. In 1998 and 1999 the Colombian government pass a law, where every county of the country has to have a plan of land-use and development (POT) for the following 10 years. The POT must consider natural hazard and risk such as seismicity, landslide and volcanic activity. Without the plan, the county will not receive any economical support from the central government. In the county of Pasto, the largest city in the influence zone of Galeras volcano, the hazard map has been used to promote educational plan in schools, increasing public awareness of Galeras and its hazard, advise and persuade decision makers to consider Galeras hazard in the city development plans. On the other hand, the hazard map has been mistaken as a risk map and it has originated opposition due to the measurements taken as a consequence of the map. This presentation deal with the gain experience of using the hazard map as a tool of information and planing and the confrontation that any decision implies with political, social and economic interest.

  15. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  16. Assessing lahars from ice-capped volcanoes using ASTER satellite data, the SRTM DTM and two different flow models: case study on Iztaccíhuatl (Central Mexico)

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    Lahars frequently affect the slopes of ice-capped volcanoes. They can be triggered by volcano-ice interactions during eruptions but also by processes such as intense precipitation or by outbursts of glacial water bodies not directly related to eruptive activity. We use remote sensing, GIS and lahar models in combination with ground observations for an initial lahar hazard assessment on Iztaccíhuatl volcano (5230 m a.s.l.), considering also possible future developments of the glaciers on the v...

  17. Probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal from the Ochre Pumice Plinian eruption at Popocatepetl, Mexico and implications for civil aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaini, C.; Bonasia, R.; Capra, L.; Nathenson, M.; Araña-Salinas, L.; Siebe, C.; Folch, A.

    2013-05-01

    Popocatepetl volcano is one of the most active in the Mexican country. The historical record of the volcano shows an intense explosive activity with tephra dispersal and deposition jeopardizing the surrounding populations and infrastructures. In particular, far-range tephra dispersal in atmosphere can impact the Mexican air traffic network. There are several important airports in the surroundings, such as Benito Juarez and Puebla International Airports, located respectively at 70 and 50 km from Popocatepetl volcano. Moreover, several national and international aerial routes cross over the nearby airspace. An explosive event at Popocatepetl volcano may produce strong disruptions to relevant airports, with strong socio-economic consequences. An hazard assessment has already been carried out for several volcanic hazards at Popocatepetl volcano, and amongst them tephra deposition at ground. However, no hazard assessment of tephra dispersal has never been performed yet, and is therefore necessary to complete the multi-hazard assessment. Here, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatepetl volcano. Probabilistic hazard assessment is carried out for a selected eruptive scenario, defined on the basis of the Ochre Pumice Plinian eruption. The definition of eruptive parameters is based on field data and literature. Moreover, eruptive parameters have been verified through the inversion process, performed with HAZMAP analytical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are produced with FALL3D numerical model. Having performed 500 numerical simulations at HORUS Supercomputer (Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Queretaro, Mexico), results have been merged to produce probabilistic hazard maps of tephra dispersal at relevant flight levels (FL050 and FL300). The critical ash concentration thresholds considered are 0.2 and 2 mg per cubic meter, taking into account the current European regulation and the recent ICAO indications for Mexican airspace

  18. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

    2008-09-01

    The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

  19. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields

    OpenAIRE

    Bartolini, Stefania

    2014-01-01

    [eng] One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology, which represents a significant socio-economic implication, is to conduct hazard assessment in active volcanic systems. These volcanological studies are aimed at hazard that allows to constructing hazard maps and simulating different eruptive scenarios, and are mainly addressed to contribute to territorial planning, definition of emergency plans or managing volcanic crisis. The impact of a natural event, as a volcanic eruption, can s...

  20. Multi-disciplinary Hazard Reduction from Earthquakes and Volcanoes in Indonesia - International Research Cooperation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Teruyuki

    2010-05-01

    Indonesian and Japanese researchers started a three-year (2009-2011) multi-disciplinary cooperative research project as a part of "Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development" supported by the Japanese government. The ultimate goal of this project is to reduce disaster from earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes by enhancing capability of forecasting hazards, reducing social vulnerability, and education and outreach activity of research outcomes. We plan to provide platform of collaboration among researchers in natural science, engineering and social sciences, as well as officials in national and local governments. Research activities are grouped into: (1) geological and geophysical surveys of past earthquakes, monitoring current crustal activity, and simulation of future ground motion or tsunamis, (2) short-term and long-term prediction of volcanic eruptions by monitoring Semeru, Guntur and other volcanoes, and development of their evaluation method, (3) studies to establish social infrastructure based on engineering technologies and hazard maps, (4) social, cultural and religious studies to reduce vulnerability of local communities, and (5) studies on education and outreach on disaster reduction and restoration of community. In addition, to coordinate these research activities and to utilize the research results, (6) application of the research and establishment of collaboration mechanism between researchers and the government officials is planned. In addition to mutual visits and collaborative field studies, it is planned to hold annual joint seminars (in Indonesia in 2009 and 2011, in Japan in 2010) that will be broadcasted through internet. Meetings with Joint Coordinating Committee, composed of representatives of relevant Indonesian ministries and institutions as well as project members, will be held annually to oversee the activities. The kick-off workshop was held in Bandung in April 2009 and the research plans from 22 different

  1. Lahars in Java: Initiations, Dynamics, Hazard Assessment And Deposition Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franck Lavigne

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Lahar has been applied as a general term for rapidly flowing, high-concentration, poorly sorted sediment-laden mixtures of rock debris and water (other than normal streamflow from a volcano. Lahars are one of the most destructive phenomena associated with composite volcanoes, which are dominant in Java Island. Resulting deposits of lahar are poorly sorted, massive, made up of clasts (chiefly of volcanic composition, that generally include a mud-poor matrix. The aim of this research is threefold: to discuss the initiation of lahars occurrences, their dynamics, to assess the hazard and to analyse the deposition. Lahars are either a direct result of eruptive activity or not temporally related to eruptions. Syn-eruptive lahars may result from the transformation on pyroclastic flows or debris avalanches which transform to aqueous flows (e.g. at Papandayan in November 2002; They may be also generated through lake outburst or breaching (e.g. at Kelut in 1909 or 1966, and through removal of pyroclastic debris by subsequent heavy rainstorms. Post-eruptive lahar occurs during several years after an eruption. At Merapi, lahars are commonly rain-triggered by rainfalls having an average intensity of about 40 mm in 2 hours. Most occur during the rainy season from November to April. Non-eruptive lahars are flows generated without eruptive activity, particularly in the case of a debris avalanche or a lake outburst (e.g., Kelut. A lahar may include one or more discrete flow processes and encompass a variety of rheological flow types and flow transformations. As such, lahars encompass a continuum between debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows, as observed at Merapi, Kelut and Semeru volcanoes. Debris flows, with water contents ranging from 10 to no more than about 25% weight, are non-newtonian fluids that move as fairly coherent masses in what is thought to be predominantly laminar fashion. However, the relative importance of laminar versus turbulent regime is

  2. Co-designing communication and hazard preparedness strategies at Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Manen, Saskia; Avard, Geoffroy; Martinez, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Globally volcanic activity results in huge human, social, environmental and economic losses. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) is the concept and systematic practice of reducing disaster risks and associated losses through a wide range of strategies, including efforts to increase knowledge through education and outreach. However, recent studies have shown a substantial gap between risk reduction actions taken at national and local levels, with national policies showing little change at the community level. Yet it is at local levels are where DRR efforts can have the biggest impact. This research focuses on communicating hazard preparedness strategies at Turrialba volcano, Costa Rica. Located in the Central Cordillera just 35 km northeast of Costa Rica's capital city San Jose this 3,340 m high active stratovolcano looms over Costa Rica's Central Valley, the social and economic hub of the country. Following progressive increases in degassing and seismic activity Turrialba resumed activity in 1996 after more than 100 years of quiescence. Since 2007 it has continuously emitted gas and since 2010 intermittent phreatic explosions accompanied by ash emissions have occurred. Despite high levels of hazard salience individuals and communities are not or under-prepared to deal with a volcanic eruption. In light of Turrialba's continued activity engaging local communities with disaster risk management is key. At the local levels culture (collective behaviours, interactions, cognitive constructs, and affective understanding) is an important factor in shaping peoples' views, understanding and response to natural phenomena. As such an increasing number of academic studies and intergovernmental organisations advocate for the incorporation of cultural context into disaster risk reduction strategies, which firstly requires documenting people's perception. Therefore approaching community disaster preparedness from a user-centred perspective, through an iterative and collaborative

  3. Environmental hazards of fluoride in volcanic ash: a case study from Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Shane J.; Neall, V. E.; Lecointre, J. A.; Hedley, M. J.; Loganathan, P.

    2003-03-01

    The vent-hosted hydrothermal system of Ruapehu volcano is normally covered by a c. 10 million m 3 acidic crater lake where volcanic gases accumulate. Through analysis of eruption observations, granulometry, mineralogy and chemistry of volcanic ash from the 1995-1996 Ruapehu eruptions we report on the varying influences on environmental hazards associated with the deposits. All measured parameters are more dependent on the eruptive style than on distance from the vent. Early phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruption phases from crater lakes similar to that on Ruapehu are likely to contain the greatest concentrations of environmentally significant elements, especially sulphur and fluoride. These elements are contained within altered xenolithic material extracted from the hydrothermal system by steam explosions, as well as in residue hydrothermal fluids adsorbed on to particle surfaces. In particular, total F in the ash may be enriched by a factor of 6 relative to original magmatic contents, although immediately soluble F does not show such dramatic increases. Highly soluble NaF and CaSiF 6 phases, demonstrated to be the carriers of 'available' F in purely magmatic eruptive systems, are probably not dominant in the products of phreatomagmatic eruptions through hydrothermal systems. Instead, slowly soluble compounds such as CaF 2, AlF 3 and Ca 5(PO 4) 3F dominate. Fluoride in these phases is released over longer periods, where only one third is leached in a single 24-h water extraction. This implies that estimation of soluble F in such ashes based on a single leach leads to underestimation of the F impact, especially of a potential longer-term environmental hazard. In addition, a large proportion of the total F in the ash is apparently soluble in the digestive system of grazing animals. In the Ruapehu case this led to several thousand sheep deaths from fluorosis.

  4. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-11-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  5. Landslide hazard assessment: recent trends and techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardeshi, Sudhakar D; Autade, Sumant E; Pardeshi, Suchitra S

    2013-01-01

    Landslide hazard assessment is an important step towards landslide hazard and risk management. There are several methods of Landslide Hazard Zonation (LHZ) viz. heuristic, semi quantitative, quantitative, probabilistic and multi-criteria decision making process. However, no one method is accepted universally for effective assessment of landslide hazards. In recent years, several attempts have been made to apply different methods of LHZ and to compare results in order to find the best suited model. This paper presents the review of researches on landslide hazard mapping published in recent years. The advanced multivariate techniques are proved to be effective in spatial prediction of landslides with high degree of accuracy. Physical process based models also perform well in LHZ mapping even in the areas with poor database. Multi-criteria decision making approach also play significant role in determining relative importance of landslide causative factors in slope instability process. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) are powerful tools to assess landslide hazards and are being used extensively in landslide researches since last decade. Aerial photographs and high resolution satellite data are useful in detection, mapping and monitoring landslide processes. GIS based LHZ models helps not only to map and monitor landslides but also to predict future slope failures. The advancements in Geo-spatial technologies have opened the doors for detailed and accurate assessment of landslide hazards.

  6. Eruptive history of Chimborazo volcano (Ecuador): A large, ice-capped and hazardous compound volcano in the Northern Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaniego, Pablo; Barba, Diego; Robin, Claude; Fornari, Michel; Bernard, Benjamin

    2012-04-01

    New fieldwork, radiometric and whole-rock chemical data permit the reconstruction of the main eruptive stages of the Chimborazo compound volcano, the highest summit of the Northern Andes. Chimborazo is composed of three successive edifices. The Basal Edifice (CH-I) was active from ~ 120 to 60 ka and resulted in a large, mostly effusive edifice which was built up during two stages of cone-building, terminating with the formation of a dome complex. This edifice was affected by a huge sector collapse around 65-60 ka which produced a major debris avalanche that spread out into the Riobamba basin, covering about 280 km2 with an average thickness of 40 m and a total volume of ~ 10-12 km3. After the emplacement of the Riobamba debris avalanche, eruptive activity resumed at the eastern outlet of the avalanche scar and was responsible for the construction of a less voluminous, Intermediary Edifice (CH-II), whose current remnants are the Politécnica and Martínez peaks. This edifice developed from 60 to 35 ka. Lastly, eruptive activity shifted to the west, leading to the construction of the morphologically well-preserved Young Cone (CH-III) which currently forms the highest summit (Whymper). The average eruptive rate of Chimborazo volcano is 0.5-0.7 km3/ka. However, looking at the three successive edifices individually, we estimate that there has been a progressive decrease in magma output rate from the Basal Edifice (0.7-1.0 km3/ka), through the Intermediary Edifice (0.4-0.7 km3/ka) to the Young Cone (~ 0.1 km3/ka). However, during the main cone-building stages, the peak eruption rates are markedly higher, indicating significant variations in the magma output rate during the lifespan of this arc volcano. During the Holocene, the Chimborazo eruptive activity consisted of small-volume explosive events that occurred at quite regular intervals, between about 8000 and 1000 yr ago. Since the last eruption occurred between the early part of the 5th century and the end of the 7th

  7. A sinuous tumulus over an active lava tube at Kīlauea Volcano: evolution, analogs, and hazard forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Tim R.; Bleacher, Jacob E.; Patrick, Matthew R.; Wooten, Kelly M.

    2015-01-01

    Inflation of narrow tube-fed basaltic lava flows (tens of meters across), such as those confined by topography, can be focused predominantly along the roof of a lava tube. This can lead to the development of an unusually long tumulus, its shape matching the sinuosity of the underlying lava tube. Such a situation occurred during Kīlauea Volcano's (Hawai'i, USA) ongoing East Rift Zone eruption on a lava tube active from July through November 2010. Short-lived breakouts from the tube buried the flanks of the sinuous, ridge-like tumulus, while the tumulus crest, its surface composed of lava formed very early in the flow's emplacement history, remained poised above the surrounding younger flows. At least several of these breakouts resulted in irrecoverable uplift of the tube roof. Confined sections of the prehistoric Carrizozo and McCartys flows (New Mexico, USA) display similar sinuous, ridge-like features with comparable surface age relationships. We contend that these distinct features formed in a fashion equivalent to that of the sinuous tumulus that formed at Kīlauea in 2010. Moreover, these sinuous tumuli may be analogs for some sinuous ridges evident in orbital images of the Tharsis volcanic province on Mars. The short-lived breakouts from the sinuous tumulus at Kīlauea were caused by surges in discharge through the lava tube, in response to cycles of deflation and inflation (DI events) at Kīlauea's summit. The correlation between DI events and subsequent breakouts aided in lava flow forecasting. Breakouts from the sinuous tumulus advanced repeatedly toward the sparsely populated Kalapana Gardens subdivision, destroying two homes and threatening others. Hazard assessments, including flow occurrence and advance forecasts, were relayed regularly to the Hawai'i County Civil Defense to aid their lava flow hazard mitigation efforts while this lava tube was active.

  8. Health hazards and disaster potential of ground gas emissions at Furnas volcano, São Miguel, Azores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Peter J.; Baubron, Jean-Claude; Coutinho, Rui

    1999-09-01

    A health hazard assessment of exposure to soil gases (carbon dioxide and radon) was undertaken in the village of Furnas, located in the caldera of an active volcano. A soil survey to map the area of soil gas flow was undertaken, gas emissions were monitored at fumaroles and in eight houses, and a preliminary radon survey of 23 houses in the main anomaly area was performed. Potential volcanic sources of toxic contamination of air, food, and water were also investigated, and ambient air quality was evaluated. About one-third (41 ha) of the houses were located in areas of elevated carbon dioxide soil degassing. Unventilated, confined spaces in some houses contained levels of carbon dioxide which could cause asphyxiation. Mean indoor radon levels exceeded UK and US action levels in the winter months. A tenfold increase in radon levels in one house over 2 h indicated that large and potentially lethal surges of carbon dioxide could occur without warning. Toxic exposures from the gaseous emissions and from contamination of soil and water were minimal, but sulphur dioxide levels were mildly elevated close to fumaroles. In contrast, evidence of dental fluorosis was manifested in the population of the nearby fishing village of Ribeira Quente where drinking water in the past had contained elevated levels of fluoride. The disaster potential of volcanic carbon dioxide in the area could also be associated with the hydrothermal system storing dissolved carbon dioxide beneath the village. Felt, or unfelt, seismic activity, or magma unrest, especially with a reawakening of explosive volcanic activity (30% probability in the next 100 years) could result in an increase in gas flow or even a gas burst from the hydrothermal system. A survey of all houses in Furnas is advised as structural measures to prevent the ingress of soil gases, including radon, were needed in some of the study houses. Evaluations of the human hazards of volcanic gases should be undertaken in all settlements in

  9. Assessment of multi hazards in Semarang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, Arief Laila; Hani'ah, Pratiwi, Rosika D.

    2017-07-01

    Semarang city is the centre of the city for the people of Central Java province, where it has been transformed into a centre of economic and administrative government. The condition becomes vulnerable because Semarang city has at least four natural disasters. The Natural disasters also negatively impact for the people of Semarang city. The Natural disasters are floods, tidal flooding, landslides, and drought. To find out which areas are experiencing high levels of threat from the disaster, must be done by mapping multi hazards. Multi hazards mapping is done by using the method of weighting parameters and be processed by GIS from disaster-forming parameters. The next step, the result of mapping multi hazards be overlay to get the value of the level of hazards. To get assessment of Level multi natural hazards, the overlay of the hazards map can be done by two methods, GIS and AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) methods. The result will be obtained in high level of affected multi hazards area in the Semarang city is Genuk district, Semarang Utara district, and Tugu District. In wich total area in high level of multi hazards is 61944.14 hectares or 30.77% of total area Semarang city.

  10. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

  11. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  12. Volcanic ash hazard climatology for an eruption of Hekla Volcano, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leadbetter, Susan J.; Hort, Matthew C.

    2011-01-01

    Ash produced by a volcanic eruption on Iceland can be hazardous for both the transatlantic flight paths and European airports and airspace. In order to begin to quantify the risk to aircraft, this study explored the probability of ash from a short explosive eruption of Hekla Volcano (63.98°N, 19.7°W) reaching European airspace. Transport, dispersion and deposition of the ash cloud from a three hour 'explosive' eruption with an initial plume height of 12 km was simulated using the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment, NAME, the model used operationally by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Eruptions were simulated over a six year period, from 2003 until 2008, and ash clouds were tracked for four days following each eruption. Results showed that a rapid spread of volcanic ash is possible, with all countries in Europe facing the possibility of an airborne ash concentration exceeding International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) limits within 24 h of an eruption. An additional high impact, low probability event which could occur is the southward spread of the ash cloud which would block transatlantic flights approaching and leaving Europe. Probabilities of significant concentrations of ash are highest to the east of Iceland, with probabilities exceeding 20% in most countries north of 50°N. Deposition probabilities were highest at Scottish and Scandinavian airports. There is some seasonal variability in the probabilities; ash is more likely to reach southern Europe in winter when the mean winds across the continent are northerly. Ash concentrations usually remain higher for longer during summer when the mean wind speeds are lower.

  13. A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment

    OpenAIRE

    W. Marzocchi; Sandri, L.; Furlan, C

    2006-01-01

    Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees o...

  14. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Ullah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events. The GSHAP project (1999, aiming at a hazard assessment on a global scale, indicated that the region of Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as high as 9 m/s2. In this study, carried out within the framework of the EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia, the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for Central Asia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth < 50 km seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects earthquake catalog for the region. The seismic hazard is calculated in terms of macroseismic intensity (MSK-64, intended to be used for the seismic risk maps of the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which is an open source software tool developed by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model foundation. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches an intensity of around 8 in southern Tien Shan for 475 years mean return period. The maximum hazard estimated for some of the cities in the region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent and Almaty, is between 7 and 8 (7-8, 8.0, 7.0 and 8.0 macroseismic Intensity, respectively, for 475 years mean return period, using different approaches. The results of different methods for assessing the level of seismic hazard are compared and their underlying methodologies are discussed.

  15. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

  16. Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Charles

    2014-05-01

    Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

  17. Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

    2014-05-01

    In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

  18. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - GSHAP legacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurentiu Danciu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program - or simply GSHAP, when launched, almost two decades ago, aimed at establishing a common framework to evaluate the seismic hazard over geographical large-scales, i.e. countries, regions, continents and finally the globe. Its main product, the global seismic hazard map was a milestone, unique at that time and for a decade have served as the main reference worldwide. Today, for most of the Earth’s seismically active regions such Europe, Northern and Southern America, Central and South-East Asia, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the GSHAP seismic hazard map is outdated. The rapid increase of the new data, advance on the earthquake process knowledge, technological progress, both hardware and software, contributed all in updates of the seismic hazard models. We present herein, a short retrospective overview of the achievements as well as the pitfalls of the GSHAP. Further, we describe the next generation of seismic hazard models, as elaborated within the Global Earthquake Model, regional programs: the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, the 2014 Earthquake Model for Middle East, and the 2015 Earthquake Model of Central Asia. Later, the main characteristics of these regional models are summarized and the new datasets fully harmonized across national borders are illustrated for the first time after the GSHAP completion.

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ju Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM was established to assess the seismic hazard and risk for Taiwan by considering the social and economic impacts of various components from geology, seismology, and engineering. This paper gives the first version of TEM probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Taiwan in these aspects. We named it TEM PSHA2015. The model adopts the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by TEM geologists. In addition to specific fault source-based categorization, seismic activities are categorized as shallow, subduction intraplate, and subduction interplate events. To evaluate the potential ground-shaking resulting from each seismic source, the corresponding ground-motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes are adopted. The highest hazard probability is evaluated to be in Southwestern Taiwan and the Longitudinal Valley of Eastern Taiwan. Among the special municipalities in the highly populated Western Taiwan region, Taichung, Tainan, and New Taipei City are evaluated to have the highest hazard. Tainan has the highest seismic hazard for peak ground acceleration in the model based on TEM fault parameters. In terms of pseudo-spectral acceleration, Tainan has higher hazard over short spectral periods, whereas Taichung has higher hazard over long spectral periods. The analysis indicates the importance of earthquake-resistant designs for low-rise buildings in Tainan and high-rise buildings in Taichung.

  20. Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Della Seta, Marta; Marotta, Enrica; Orsi, Giovanni; de Vita, Sandro; Sansivero, Fabio; Fredi, Paola

    2012-01-01

    Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island's coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.

  1. Building a flood hazard map due to magma effusion into the caldera lake of the Baekdusan Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, K.; Kim, S.; Yun, S.; Yu, S.; Kim, I.

    2013-12-01

    Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently and the volcanic ash may spread up to the northeastern of Japan. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. Floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Volcanic flood may cause significant hydrologic hazards for this reason. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the uplift of lake bottom due to magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by the past record from other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic model (Flo-2D) runs to simulate channel routing downstream. The final goal of the study stresses the potential flood hazard represented by the huge volume of water in the caldera lake, the unique geography, and the limited control capability. he study will contribute to build a geohazard map for the decision-makers and practitioners. Keywords: Effusion rate, Volcanic flood, Caldera lake, Uplift, Flood hazard map Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from

  2. Volcanic-ash hazard to aviation during the 2003-2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Ewert, J.W.; Gallina, G.M.; Bluth, G.J.S.; Swanson, G.L.

    2005-01-01

    ; thereafter, the maximum plume height decreased and during the rest of the eruption usually did not exceed ???5 km (???17,000 ft), which lessened the potential hazard to aircraft at higher cruise altitudes. Drifting ash clouds commonly extended hundreds of kilometers from the volcano, occasionally as far west as the Philippines. Over the course of the eruptive activity in 2003-2004, the VAAC issued 323 advisories (168 with graphical depictions of ash clouds) for Anatahan, serving as a reliable source of ash-cloud information for aviation-related meteorological offices and air carriers. With a record of frequent eruptions in the CNMI, continued satellite and in situ real-time geophysical monitoring is needed at Anatahan and other Marianas volcanoes so that potential hazards to aviation from any future eruptive activity can be quickly and correctly assessed. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Numerical earthquake simulations for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Sokolov, Vladimir; Soloviev, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    A comprehensive seismic hazard assessment can contribute to earthquake preparedness and preventive measures aimed to reduce impacts of earthquakes, especially in the view of growing population and increasing vulnerability and exposure. Realistic earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide better assessments of potential ground shaking due to large earthquakes. We present a model of block-and-fault dynamics, which simulates earthquakes in response to lithosphere movements and allows for studying the influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns. Using case studies (e.g., the Tibet-Himalayan region and the Caucasian region), we analyse the model's performance in terms of reproduction of basic features of the observed seismicity, such as the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrences of large events, fault slip rates, and earthquake mechanisms. We examine a new approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, which is based on instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes. Based on predicted and observed peak ground acceleration values, we show that the hazard level associated with large events significantly increases if the long record of simulated seismicity is considered in the hazard assessment.

  4. Natural Hazards – Nonlinearities and Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Geosciences are developing and applying a wide range of methodologies to assess natural hazards. Significant advances in the site characterization and models development have been achieved in the last decade, but many challenges still remain. Several disastrous earthquakes in the past decade accompanied with tsunamis have required a rapid assessment of the underlying causes of the tragic loss of life and property. Natural disasters risk reduction and control as a crucial criterion for sustainable development and minimizing social and economic loss and disruption due to earthquakes, tsunamis and other hazards requires reliable assessment of the seismic and tsunami hazard, as well as mitigation actions of the vulnerability of the built environment and risk. All of these provide the critical basis for improved building codes and construction emergency response plans for the people and infrastructure safety and protection.

  5. Landslides Hazard Assessment Using Different Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coman Cristina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Romania represents one of Europe’s countries with high landslides occurrence frequency. Landslide hazard maps are designed by considering the interaction of several factors which, by their joint action may affect the equilibrium state of the natural slopes. The aim of this paper is landslides hazard assessment using the methodology provided by the Romanian national legislation and a very largely used statistical method. The final results of these two analyses are quantitative or semi-quantitative landslides hazard maps, created in geographic information system environment. The data base used for this purpose includes: geological and hydrogeological data, digital terrain model, hydrological data, land use, seismic action, anthropic action and an inventory of active landslides. The GIS landslides hazard models were built for the geographical area of the Iasi city, located in the north-east side of Romania.

  6. Overview Landslide Hazard Assessment of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yin Kunlong; Zhang Guirong; Zhu Liangfeng

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, China has suffered serious geological disasters, most of slope movements due to complex geology, geomorphology, unusual weather conditions, and large-scale land explorations during high speed economic development. According to geological hazard investigations organized by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China, there are 400 towns and more than 10 000 villages under the threatening of those landslide hazards. This paper presents the overview landslide hazard assessment in terms of GIS, which aims to evaluate the overview geohazard potentials, vulnerabilities of lives and land resources, and risks in conterminous China on the scale of 1∶6 000 000. This is the first overview landslide hazard potential map of China.

  7. Hazard interaction analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on hazard-forming environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Baoyin; Siu, Yim Ling; Mitchell, Gordon

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops a systematic hazard interaction classification based on the geophysical environment that natural hazards arise from - the hazard-forming environment. According to their contribution to natural hazards, geophysical environmental factors in the hazard-forming environment were categorized into two types. The first are relatively stable factors which construct the precondition for the occurrence of natural hazards, whilst the second are trigger factors, which determine the frequency and magnitude of hazards. Different combinations of geophysical environmental factors induce different hazards. Based on these geophysical environmental factors for some major hazards, the stable factors are used to identify which kinds of natural hazards influence a given area, and trigger factors are used to classify the relationships between these hazards into four types: independent, mutex, parallel and series relationships. This classification helps to ensure all possible hazard interactions among different hazards are considered in multi-hazard risk assessment. This can effectively fill the gap in current multi-hazard risk assessment methods which to date only consider domino effects. In addition, based on this classification, the probability and magnitude of multiple interacting natural hazards occurring together can be calculated. Hence, the developed hazard interaction classification provides a useful tool to facilitate improved multi-hazard risk assessment.

  8. Exploration of resilience assessments for natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, Anna; Han, Dawei; Champneys, Alan

    2017-04-01

    The occurrence of extreme events due to natural hazards is difficult to predict. Extreme events are stochastic in nature, there is a lack of long term data on their occurrence, and there are still gaps in our understanding of their physical processes. This difficulty in prediction will be exacerbated by climate change and human activities. Yet traditional risk assessments measure risk as the probability of occurrence of a hazard, multiplied by the consequences of the hazard occurring, which ignores the recovery process. In light of the increasing concerns on disaster risks and the related system recovery, resilience assessments are being used as an approach which complements and builds on traditional risk assessments and management. In mechanical terms, resilience refers to the amount of energy per unit volume that a material can absorb while maintaining its ability to return to its original shape. Resilience was first applied in the fields of psychology and ecology, and more recently has been used in areas such as social sciences, economics, and engineering. A common metaphor for understanding resilience is the stability landscape. The landscape consists of a surface of interconnected basins, where each basin represents different states of a system, which is a point on the stability landscape. The resilience of the system is its capacity and tendency to remain within a particular basin. This depends on the topology of the landscape, on the system's current position, and on its reaction to different shocks and stresses. In practical terms, resilience assessments have been conducted for various purposes in different sectors. These assessments vary in their required inputs, the methodologies applied, and the output they produce. Some measures used for resilience assessments are hazard independent. These focus on the intrinsic capabilities of a system, for example the insurance coverage of a community, or the buffer capacity of a water storage reservoir. Other

  9. Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, Sébastien; Falcone, Jean-Luc; Bonadonna, Costanza; Di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

    2016-10-01

    We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest. The approach is calibrated, validated and applied to La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Italy). We constructed a generic eruption scenario based on stratigraphic studies and numerical inversions of the 1888-1890 long-lasting Vulcanian cycle of La Fossa. Results suggest a ~ 10- 2% probability of occurrence of VBP impacts with kinetic energies ≤ 104 J at the touristic locality of Porto. In parallel, the vulnerability to roof perforation was estimated by combining field observations and published literature, allowing for a first estimate of the potential impact of VBPs during future Vulcanian eruptions. Results indicate a high physical vulnerability to the VBP hazard, and, consequently, half of the building stock having a ≥ 2.5 × 10- 3% probability of roof perforation.

  10. The c.2030 yr BP Plinian eruption of El Misti volcano, Peru: Eruption dynamics and hazard implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobeñas, Gisela; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Bonadonna, Costanza; Boivin, Pierre

    2012-10-01

    'El Misti' volcano near the city of Arequipa in south Peru produced a Plinian eruption c.2030 yr BP that resulted in a tephra deposit consisting of three fallout layers, several pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits, a late stage, small debris-avalanche deposit, and lahar deposits. This VEI 4 Plinian eruption of El Misti has been selected as one of the reference eruptions for the hazard assessment and risk mitigation plan for the city of Arequipa. The Plinian column of this eruption rose up to 21-24 km and produced a tephra deposit over an area of at least 2580 km2 within the 5 cm-isopach line. The dispersal axis is oriented SW, i.e. towards the area of the basin and city of Arequipa. Later pumice- and lithic-rich PDC deposits were emplaced into radial valleys extending from the volcano up to a distance of at least 13 km. The eruption produced a minimum total bulk volume of 1.2 km3 (0.71 km3 DRE volume) of tephra and PDC deposits. Components of the tephra deposit consist of beige, gray and banded pumices, lithic fragments, a minor amount of cogenetic dacite clasts, and free crystals. The minimum volume of the tephra deposit varies between 0.2 and 0.6 km3 (exponential, power-law integration and inversion of TEPHRA2 analytical model). The tephra deposit is characterized by a bulk density of 1500 kg/m3 which results in a mass of 2.5-9.0 × 1011 kg. The maximum mass discharge rate (MDR) is 1.1 × 108 kg/s based on a plume height of 24 km. The estimated duration of the Plinian eruption ranges between 0.6 and 2.3 h. Grain size distribution, componentry, and SEM analyses of both the tephra and PDC deposits, combined with the reconstructed stratigraphic sequence of the deposit, suggest that the eruption took place in five stages: (1) generation of a 21-24 km-high eruptive column that deposited the lower tephra layer; (2) collapse of the crater walls and partial obstruction of the vent during a period of decreased intensity, which led to the formation of a thin sand

  11. Advanced Materials Laboratory hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnett, B.; Banda, Z.

    1995-10-01

    The Department of Energy Order 55OO.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the AML. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 23 meters. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is a nominal area that conforms to DOE boundaries and physical/jurisdictional boundaries such as fence lines and streets.

  12. Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

    2014-12-01

    'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

  13. Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2014-05-01

    Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

  14. Lahars at Cotopaxi and Tungurahua Volcanoes, Ecuador: Highlights from stratigraphy and observational records and related downstream hazards: Chapter 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mothes, Patricia A; Vallance, James W.

    2015-01-01

    Lahars are volcanic debris flows that are dubbed primary when triggered by eruptive activity or secondary when triggered by other factors such as heavy rainfall after eruptive activity has waned. Variation in time and space of the proportion of sediment to water within a lahar dictates lahar flow phase and the resultant sedimentary character of deposits. Characteristics of source material and of debris eroded and incorporated during flow downstream may strongly affect the grain-size composition of flowing lahars and their deposits. Lahars borne on the flanks of two steep-sided stratocones in Ecuador exemplify two important lahar types. Glacier-clad Cotopaxi volcano has been a producer of primary lahars that flow great distances downstream. Such primary lahars include those of both clast-rich and matrix-rich composition—some of which have flowed as far as 325 km to the Pacific Ocean. Cotopaxi's last important eruption in 1877 generated formidable syneruptive lahars comparable in size to those that buried Armero, Colombia, following the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano. In contrast, ash-producing eruptive activity during the past 15 years at Tungurahua volcano has generated a continual supply of fresh volcaniclastic debris that is regularly remobilized by precipitation. Between 2000 and 2011, 886 rain-generated lahars were registered at Tungurahua. These two volcanoes pose dramatically different hazards to nearby populations. At Tungurahua, the frequency and small sizes of lahars have resulted in effective mitigation measures. At Cotopaxi 137 years have passed since the last important lahar-producing eruption, and there is now a high-risk situation for more than 100,000 people living in downstream valleys.

  15. Seismic hazard assessment; Valutazione della pericolosita` sismica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paciello, A. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Ambiente

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents a brief summary of the most commonly used methodologies for seismic hazard assessment. The interest is focused on the probabilistic approach, which can take into account the uncertainties of input data and provides results better comparable with those obtained from hazard analyses of other natural phenomena. Calculation methods, input data and treatment of variability are examined. Some examples of probabilistic seismic hazard maps are moreover presented. [Italiano] Questo lavoro presenta un breve sommario delle piu` comuni metodologie utilizzate per la valutazione della pericolosita` sismica di un sito. Una particolare attenzione e` rivolta all`approccio probabilistico, che permette di tener conto delle incertezze legate ai dati iniziali e fornisce risultati piu` facilmente confrontabili con quelli ottenuti da analisi di pericolosita` di altri fenomeni naturali. Vengono presi in esame i metodi di calcolo, i dati di base e il trattamento delle incertezze. Vengono inoltre presentati alcuni esempi di carte di pericolosita` sismica di tipo probabilistico.

  16. G-EVER Activities and the Next-generation Volcanic Hazard Assessment System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2013-12-01

    The Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) is a consortium of Asia-Pacific geohazard research institutes that was established in 2012. G-EVER aims to formulate strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. G-EVER is working on enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information on the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The 1st G-EVER International Symposium was held in Tsukuba, Japan in March 11, 2013. The 2nd Symposium is scheduled in Sendai, Tohoku Japan, in Oct. 19-20, 2013. Currently, 4 working groups were proposed in the G-EVER Consortium. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment WG is developing a useful system for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is based on volcanic eruption history datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Volcanic eruption histories including precursor phenomena leading to major eruptions of active volcanoes are very important for future prediction of volcanic eruptions. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and types, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. Proposing international standards on how to estimate the volume of volcanic products is important to make a high quality volcanic eruption database. Spatial distribution database of volcanic products (e.g. tephra and pyroclastic flow distributions), encoded into a GIS based database is necessary for more precise area and volume estimation and risk assessments. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represents a subset of possible future scenarios. Therefore, numerical simulations with controlled parameters are needed for more precise volcanic eruption

  17. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Babol, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Babol, one of big cities in north of Iran. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. It comes from historical references that at least many times; Babol has been destroyed by catastrophic earthquakes. In this paper, the peak horizontal ground acceleration over the bedrock (PGA is calculated by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA. For this reason, at first, a collected catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events that occurred in a radius of 200 km of Babol city and covering the period from 874 to 2004 have been gathered. Then, seismic sources are modeled and recur¬rence relationship is established. After elimination of the aftershocks and foreshocks, the main earthquakes were taken into consideration to calculate the seismic parameters (SP by Kijko method. The calculations were performed using the logic tree method and four weighted attenuation relationships Ghodrati, 0.35, Khademi, 0.25, Ambraseys and Simpson, 0.2, and Sarma and Srbulov, 0.2. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 8 horizontal by 7 vertical lines grid points using SEISRISK III. Finally, two seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on Peak Horizontal Ground Acceleration (PGA over bedrock for 2 and 10% probability of ex¬ceedance in one life cycles of 50 year are presented. These calculations have been performed by the Poisson distribution of two hazard levels. The results showed that the PGA ranges from 0.32 to 0.33 g for a return period of 475 years and from 0.507 to 0.527 g for a return period of 2475 years. Since population is very dense in Babol and vulnerability of buildings is high, the risk of future earthquakes will be very significant.

  18. Seismic hazard assessment in Aswan, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deif, A.; Hamed, H.; Ibrahim, H. A.; Abou Elenean, K.; El-Amin, E.

    2011-12-01

    The study of earthquake activity and seismic hazard assessment around Aswan is very important due to the proximity of the Aswan High Dam. The Aswan High Dam is based on hard Precambrian bedrock and is considered to be the most important project in Egypt from the social, agricultural and electrical energy production points of view. The seismotectonic settings around Aswan strongly suggest that medium to large earthquakes are possible, particularly along the Kalabsha, Seiyal and Khor El-Ramla faults. The seismic hazard for Aswan is calculated utilizing the probabilistic approach within a logic-tree framework. Alternative seismogenic models and ground motion scaling relationships are selected to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard values on rock were calculated to create contour maps for eight ground motion spectral periods and for a return period of 475 years, which is deemed appropriate for structural design standards in the Egyptian building codes. The results were also displayed in terms of uniform hazard spectra for rock sites at the Aswan High Dam for return periods of 475 and 2475 years. In addition, the ground-motion levels are also deaggregated at the dam site, in order to provide insight into which events are the most important for hazard estimation. The peak ground acceleration ranges between 36 and 152 cm s-2 for return periods of 475 years (equivalent to 90% probability of non-exceedance in 50 years). Spectral hazard values clearly indicate that compared with countries of high seismic risk, the seismicity in the Aswan region can be described as low at most sites to moderate in the area between the Kalabsha and Seyial faults.

  19. Volcanoes: Nature's Caldrons Challenge Geochemists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurer, Pamela S.

    1984-01-01

    Reviews various topics and research studies on the geology of volcanoes. Areas examined include volcanoes and weather, plate margins, origins of magma, magma evolution, United States Geological Survey (USGS) volcano hazards program, USGS volcano observatories, volcanic gases, potassium-argon dating activities, and volcano monitoring strategies.…

  20. Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Kristin

    2016-04-01

    Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables

  1. Using Bayesian Belief Networks To Assess Volcano State from Multiple Monitoring Timeseries And Other Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2013-04-01

    When volcanoes exhibit unrest or become eruptively active, science-based decision support invariably is sought by civil authorities. Evidence available to scientists about a volcano's internal state is usually indirect, secondary or very nebulous.Advancement of volcano monitoring technology in recent decades has increased the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Monitoring timeseries may be interpreted in real time by observatory staff and are often later subjected to further analytic scrutiny by the research community at large. With increasing variety and resolution of data, interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence has become increasingly complex. In practice, interpretation of many timeseries involves familiarity with the idiosyncracies of the volcano, the monitoring techniques, the configuration of the recording instrumentation, observations from other datasets, and so on. Assimilation of this knowledge is necessary in order to select and apply the appropriate statistical techniques required to extract the required information. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple observations, model results and interpretations - and associated uncertainties - in a methodical manner. The formulation is usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic timeseries, the certainty with which inferences may be drawn, and how they can be updated dynamically. Such approaches provide a route to developing analytical interface(s) between volcano monitoring analyses and probabilistic hazard analysis. We discuss the use of BBNs in hazard

  2. From hot rocks to glowing avalanches: Numerical modelling of gravity-induced pyroclastic density currents and hazard maps at the Stromboli volcano (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvatici, Teresa; Di Roberto, Alessio; Di Traglia, Federico; Bisson, Marina; Morelli, Stefano; Fidolini, Francesco; Bertagnini, Antonella; Pompilio, Massimo; Hungr, Oldrich; Casagli, Nicola

    2016-11-01

    Gravity-induced pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) can be produced by the collapse of volcanic crater rims or due to the gravitational instability of materials deposited in proximal areas during explosive activity. These types of PDCs, which are also known as "glowing avalanches", have been directly observed, and their deposits have been widely identified on the flanks of several volcanoes that are fed by mafic to intermediate magmas. In this research, the suitability of landslide numerical models for simulating gravity-induced PDCs to provide hazard assessments was tested. This work also presents the results of a back-analysis of three events that occurred in 1906, 1930 and 1944 at the Stromboli volcano by applying a depth-averaged 3D numerical code named DAN-3D. The model assumes a frictional internal rheology and a variable basal rheology (i.e., frictional, Voellmy and plastic). The numerical modelling was able to reproduce the gravity-induced PDCs' extension and deposit thicknesses to an order of magnitude of that reported in the literature. The best results when compared with field data were obtained using a Voellmy model with a frictional coefficient of f = 0.19 and a turbulence parameter ξ = 1000 m s- 1. The results highlight the suitability of this numerical code, which is generally used for landslides, to reproduce the destructive potential of these events in volcanic environments and to obtain information on hazards connected with explosive-related, mass-wasting phenomena in Stromboli Island and at volcanic systems characterized by similar phenomena.

  3. Kauai Test Facility hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swihart, A

    1995-05-01

    The Department of Energy Order 55003A requires facility-specific hazards assessment be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Kauai Test Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. The Kauai Test Facility`s chemical and radiological inventories were screened according to potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance to the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 4.2 kilometers. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency at the {open_quotes}Main Complex{close_quotes} and a Site Area Emergency at the Kokole Point Launch Site. The Emergency Planning Zone for the {open_quotes}Main Complex{close_quotes} is 5 kilometers. The Emergency Planning Zone for the Kokole Point Launch Site is the Pacific Missile Range Facility`s site boundary.

  4. Elevation uncertainty in coastal inundation hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.; Cheval, Sorin

    2012-01-01

    Coastal inundation has been identified as an important natural hazard that affects densely populated and built-up areas (Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2008). Inundation, or coastal flooding, can result from various physical processes, including storm surges, tsunamis, intense precipitation events, and extreme high tides. Such events cause quickly rising water levels. When rapidly rising water levels overwhelm flood defenses, especially in heavily populated areas, the potential of the hazard is realized and a natural disaster results. Two noteworthy recent examples of such natural disasters resulting from coastal inundation are the Hurricane Katrina storm surge in 2005 along the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States, and the tsunami in northern Japan in 2011. Longer term, slowly varying processes such as land subsidence (Committee on Floodplain Mapping Technologies, 2007) and sea-level rise also can result in coastal inundation, although such conditions do not have the rapid water level rise associated with other flooding events. Geospatial data are a critical resource for conducting assessments of the potential impacts of coastal inundation, and geospatial representations of the topography in the form of elevation measurements are a primary source of information for identifying the natural and human components of the landscape that are at risk. Recently, the quantity and quality of elevation data available for the coastal zone have increased markedly, and this availability facilitates more detailed and comprehensive hazard impact assessments.

  5. Debris flows: behavior and hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Debris flows are water-laden masses of soil and fragmented rock that rush down mountainsides, funnel into stream channels, entrain objects in their paths, and form lobate deposits when they spill onto valley floors. Because they have volumetric sediment concentrations that exceed 40 percent, maximum speeds that surpass 10 m/s, and sizes that can range up to ~109 m3, debris flows can denude slopes, bury floodplains, and devastate people and property. Computational models can accurately represent the physics of debris-flow initiation, motion and deposition by simulating evolution of flow mass and momentum while accounting for interactions of debris' solid and fluid constituents. The use of physically based models for hazard forecasting can be limited by imprecise knowledge of initial and boundary conditions and material properties, however. Therefore, empirical methods continue to play an important role in debris-flow hazard assessment.

  6. Explosive eruptions at Bezymianny Volcano (Kamchatka, Russia) from 2000-2009: warning system, prediction and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senyukov, S.

    2010-12-01

    Explosive eruptions are the most hazardous volcanic events for aviation and for local population centers, and thus the prediction of such events is very important. Bezymianny Volcano (55° 58' N, 160° 35' E, height ~2869 m) has produced one to two explosive eruptions per year (VEI=2-3) since its most recent catastrophic eruption on March 30, 1956, which followed 900-1000 years of quiescence. Ash plumes from these eruptions rise to altitude of 6 to 15 km. KBGS began monitoring the activity of Kamchatkan volcanoes in 2000 using real-time seismic, visual (or video), and satellite (NOAA, AVHRR) data. Since February 2000, KBGS has used a warning system (http://www.emsd.ru/~ssl/monitoring/main.htm), which is based primarily on seismicity. All seismic activity is divided into two clusters: “at background” (normal) and “above background” (heightened) levels. Normal seismicity corresponds to the quiet state of the volcano. Heightened seismic activity accompanies an explosive eruption or indicates that it is possible. Seven eruptions of Bezymianny volcano were recorded and investigated from February 2000 to February 2004. The KBGS warning system detected increased seismic activity before five of these seven eruptions in near real time. In May 2004, the level of normal seismicity was adjusted and the first version of the prediction algorithm for Bezymianny eruptions was established. This algorithm was based on the typical eruption scenario (a sequence of precursors and its quantitative parameters) and was developed as a formalized scheme of decision-making about the possibility of eruption according to near real time seismic and satellite data. During 2004-2009, the staff of the Research Laboratory of Seismic and Volcanic Activity of KBGS successfully predicted eight of nine eruptions within 1-7 days prior to the start of eruption using this algorithm. The documents, containing information about the probable eruption time, duration, height of the ash plume and risk

  7. ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

    2016-08-01

    Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

  8. Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility (WESF) Hazards Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    COVEY, L.I.

    2000-11-28

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Waste Encapsulation and Storage Facility (WESF) located on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for WESF. DOE Orders require an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification.

  9. Seismic hazard assessments at Islamic Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. E.; Deif, A.; Abdel Hafiez, H. E.

    2015-12-01

    Islamic Cairo is one of the important Islamic monumental complexes in Egypt, near the center of present-day metropolitan Cairo. The age of these buildings is up to one thousand years. Unfortunately, many of the buildings are suffering from huge mishandling that may lead to mass damage. Many buildings and masjids were partially and totally collapsed because of 12th October 1992 Cairo earthquake that took place at some 25 km from the study area with a magnitude Mw = 5.8. Henceforth, potential damage assessments there are compulsory. The deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to predict the expected future large earthquakes' strong-motion characteristics in the study area. The current study started with compiling the available studies concerned with the distribution of the seismogenic sources and earthquake catalogs. The deterministic method is used to provide a description of the largest earthquake effect on the area of interest, while the probabilistic method, on the other hand, is used to define the uniform hazard curves at three time periods 475, 950, 2475 years. Both deterministic and probabilistic results were obtained for bedrock conditions and the resulted hazard levels were deaggregated to identify the contribution of each seismic source to the total hazard. Moreover, the results obtained show that the expected seismic activities combined with the present situation of the buildings pose high alert to rescue both the cultural heritage and expected human losses.

  10. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in Martinique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Sansorgne, Eliot; Roger, Jean; Zahibo, Narcisse; Roquelaure, Stevie

    2013-04-01

    Located at the center of the Lesser Antilles, Martinique is under the threat of hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can be extremely costly in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard studies are hence required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. A few studies have been conducted so far in the French Lesser Antilles, but they mainly rely on scarce historical data of extreme sea levels or numerical models with coarse resolutions. Recent progress in statistical techniques for generating large number of synthetic hurricanes as well as availability of high-resolution topographic and bathymetric data (LIDAR) and improved numerical models enables us today to conduct storm surge hazard assessment studies with much more accuracy. Here we present a methodology to assess cyclonic surge hazard in Martinique both at regional and local scales. We first simulate the storm surges that would be induced by a large set of potential events generated by the statistical/deterministic models of Emanuel et al. [2006]. We use the ADCIRC-SWAN coupled models (Dietrich et al 2012) to simulate inundation inland with grid resolutions of up to 50-100m in the coastal area for the whole island.These models are validated against observations during past events such as hurricane Dean in 2007. The outputs can then be used in some specific sites to force higher resolution models for crisis management and local risk assessment studies. This work is supported by the INTERREG IV « Caribbean » program TSUNAHOULE.

  11. Rock Mass Strength Assessment and Significance to Edifice Stability, Mount Rainier and Mount Hood, Cascade Range Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watters, R. J.; Zimbelman, D. R.; Bowman, S. D.; Crowley, J. K.

    Catastrophic edifice and sector failure occur commonly on stratovolcanoes worldwide and in some cases leave telltale horseshoe-shaped calderas. Many of these failures are now recognised as having resulted from large-scale landsliding. These slides often transform into debris avalanches and lahars that can devastate populations downstream of the volcano. Research on these phenomena has been directed mainly at understanding avalanche mechanics and travel distances and related socioeconomic impacts. Few investigations have examined volcanic avalanche source characteristics. The focus of this paper is to 1) describe a methodology for obtaining rock strengths that control initial failure and 2) report results of rock mass strength testing from Mount Rainier and Mount Hood. Rock mass and shear strength for fresh and hydrothermally altered rocks were obtained by 1) utilizing rock strength and structural information obtained from field studies and 2) applying rock mechanics techniques common in mining and civil engineering to the edifice region. Rock mass and intact rock strength differences greatly in excess of one order of magnitude were obtained when comparing strength behavior of fresh and completely altered volcanic rock. The recognition and determination of marked strength differences existing on the volcano edifice and flank, when combined with detailed geologic mapping, can be used to quantify volcano stability assessment and improve hazard mitigation efforts.

  12. Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

    CERN Document Server

    Bevilacqua, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

  13. Hazard assessment of chemical contaminants in soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poels, C L; Veerkamp, W

    1992-12-01

    Disposal practices, accidental spills, leakages and local aerial deposition occurring in the past have led to local soil pollution in many cases. Especially in situations where people live on or nearby such locations this has created concern about possible adverse effects on human health. A stepped approach to the hazard assessment of polluted soil, as developed by a Task Force from the European Chemical Industry Ecology and Toxicology Centre (ECETOC), is described. In an early phase in the assessment process the potential exposure of humans is estimated. The Human Exposure to Soil Pollutants (HESP) model can be applied for this purpose. The model calculates the total exposure of adults and children resulting from pollutants present in soil, via 10 different exposure routes. The estimated exposure can be used to indicate the potential significant exposure routes and to carry out a preliminary hazard assessment. The model is also able to predict pollutant concentrations in soil which do not exceed accepted maximum exposure levels for humans in both standardised and site specific situations. The stepped approach is cost-effective and provides an objective basis for decisions and priority setting.

  14. Earthquake hazard assessment after Mexico (1985).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degg, M R

    1989-09-01

    The 1985 Mexican earthquake ranks foremost amongst the major earthquake disasters of the twentieth century. One of the few positive aspects of the disaster is that it provided massive quantities of data that would otherwise have been unobtainable. Every opportunity should be taken to incorporate the findings from these data in earthquake hazard assessments. The purpose of this paper is to provide a succinct summary of some of the more important lessons from Mexico. It stems from detailed field investigations, and subsequent analyses, conducted by the author on the behalf of reinsurance companies.

  15. Satellite observations of fumarole activity at Aluto volcano, Ethiopia: Implications for geothermal monitoring and volcanic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braddock, Mathilde; Biggs, Juliet; Watson, Iain M.; Hutchison, William; Pyle, David M.; Mather, Tamsin A.

    2017-07-01

    Fumaroles are the surface manifestation of hydrothermal circulation and can be influenced by magmatic, hydrothermal, hydrological and tectonic processes. This study investigates the temporal changes in fumarole temperatures and spatial extent on Aluto, a restless volcano in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), in order to better understand the controls on fluid circulation and the interaction between the magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Thermal infrared (TIR) satellite images, acquired by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) over the period of 2004 to 2016, are used to generate time series of the fumarole temperatures and areas. The thermal anomalies identified in the ASTER images coincide with known fumaroles with temperatures > 80 °C and are located on or close to fault structures, which provide a pathway for the rising fluids. Most of the fumaroles, including those along the major zone of hydrothermal upwelling, the Artu Jawe Fault Zone, have pixel-integrated temperature variations of only 2 ± 1.5 °C. The exception are the Bobesa fumaroles located on a hypothesised caldera ring fault which show pixel-integrated temperature changes of up to 9 °C consistent with a delayed response of the hydrothermal system to precipitation. We conclude that fumaroles along major faults are strongly coupled to the magmatic-hydrothermal system and are relatively stable with time, whereas those along shallower structures close to the rift flank are more strongly influenced by seasonal variations in groundwater flow. The use of remote sensing data to monitor the thermal activity of Aluto provides an important contribution towards understanding the behaviour of this actively deforming volcano. This method could be used at other volcanoes around the world for monitoring and geothermal exploration.

  16. A Preliminary Assessment of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    Garel M., J.-M. Cugnasse, A. Loison, J.-M. Gaillard, C. Vuiton, and D.Maillard. 2005. Monitoring the abundance of mouflon in south France. European ...of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting...Preliminary Assessment of Mouflon Abundance at the Kahuku Unit of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM

  17. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

  18. The Coastal Hazard Wheel system for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    screening and management. The system is developed to assess the main coastal hazards in a single process and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system was initially presented in 2012 and based on a range of test......This paper presents the complete Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) system, developed for multi-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management of coastal areas worldwide under a changing climate. The system is designed as a low-tech tool that can be used in areas with limited data availability......-applications and feedback from coastal experts, the system has been further refined and developed into a complete hazard management tool. This paper therefore covers the coastal classification system used by the CHW, a standardized assessment procedure for implementation of multi-hazard-assessments, technical guidance...

  19. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onur, Tuna [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gok, Rengin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abdulnaby, Wathiq [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shakir, Ammar M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Mahdi, Hanan [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Numan, Nazar M.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Al-Shukri, Haydar [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chlaib, Hussein K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ameen, Taher H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abd, Najah A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-05-06

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al., 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.

  20. Risk Assessment for Natural-Hazard Impact on Hazardous Chemical Installations: Workshop Outcome Report

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The impact of natural hazards on hazardous installations can cause major chemical accidents. This so-called “Natech” risk is increasing due to industrialisation and climate change. Capacity building in EU Member States, Candidate Countries and EU Neighbourhood Countries on Natech risk required for Natech risk reduction. This report summarises the findings of a training workshop on risk assessment for natural-hazard impact on hazardous chemical installations which the JRC organised in the ...

  1. Assessment of health hazards and associated factors among the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of health hazards and associated factors among the returned ... Results: The overall magnitude of health hazards was 41%: diarrhea 31.6% and ... age, education and unemployment were predictors of the migration phenomenon.

  2. How to associate with volcanoes. Mitigation of volcanic hazards; Kazan tono tsukiaikata. Kazan saigai wo doyatte herasuka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kawabe, Y. [Geological Survey of Japan, Tsukuba (Japan)

    1997-08-01

    This paper describes how to deal with volcanic hazards. Basaltic lave such as in the Kilauea volcano flows quickly, while andesite lava such as in Mt. Asama and Mt. Sakurajima in Japan flows slowly. The pyroclastic flow in the Unzen area was a flow of high-temperature lava, pumice stones and gas driven to a high speed by gravity. The flow is so dangerous as it flows so quickly as allowing no time to escape from. Pyroclastic fall-outs and volcanic gases also give damages of different forms. Mountain collapse and debris avalanche in which a volcanic mountain collapses by eruption and earthquake acting as a trigger can also cause a large disaster. A debris flow may also do the same. Knowing the history of volcanic activities by making geological surveys may help judge what type of eruptive activities is prone to occur. On the other hand, the current conditions must be kept observed by performing seismic observations. Eruption itself, a large-scale lava flow and a pyroclastic flow cannot be prevented by using any hardware technique. Software measures are important to utilize more adequately areas and soil natures with high risks. The National Land Agency has prepared recently a guideline for making hazard prediction maps. It is important that both the administration and general residents utilize this guideline. 11 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  3. First Volcanological-Probabilistic Pyroclastic Density Current and Fallout Hazard Map for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius Volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L.; Troise, C.; Panizza, A.; de Natale, G.

    2005-05-01

    Integrated volcanological-probabilistic approaches has been used in order to simulate pyroclastic density currents and fallout and produce hazard maps for Campi Flegrei and Somma Vesuvius areas. On the basis of the analyses of all types of pyroclastic flows, surges, secondary pyroclastic density currents and fallout events occurred in the volcanological history of the two volcanic areas and the evaluation of probability for each type of events, matrixs of input parameters for a numerical simulation have been performed. The multi-dimensional input matrixs include the main controlling parameters of the pyroclasts transport and deposition dispersion, as well as the set of possible eruptive vents used in the simulation program. Probabilistic hazard maps provide of each points of campanian area, the yearly probability to be interested by a given event with a given intensity and resulting demage. Probability of a few events in one thousand years are typical of most areas around the volcanoes whitin a range of ca 10 km, including Neaples. Results provide constrains for the emergency plans in Neapolitan area.

  4. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: an Independent Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA) to time-dependent (t-DASH) including short-term earthquake forecast/prediction (StEF), is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Regretfully, in many cases of SHA, t-DASH, and StEF, the claims of a high potential and efficiency of the methodology are based on a flawed application of statistics and hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. The necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space, is evident, and such a testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing may supply us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified with a few cases of misleading "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods".

  5. Urban Risk Assessment of Lahar Flows in Merapi Volcano (Study Case: Muntilan Urban Area, Central Java)

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the research was to analyse probability of lahar flows occurrence in Muntilan urban area, Central Java. By using integrated methods, which involve the numerical simulation program, Geographic Information System (GIS), Remote Sensing (RS) and field verification to produce lahar flows Hazard Map and Risk Map. Muntilan urban area located at western flank of Merapi volcano, and in down stream of Lamat river. The river is Lahar River that is endangering from Merapi vol...

  6. The ash-fall hazard from a Plinian eruption at Colima Volcano, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Fonseca

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The historical eruptive activity at Colima Volcano has been characterized by Strombolian and Merapi type eruptions and Vulcanian explosions associated with dome growth, which have ended in a Plinian eruption about every 100 years. The situation now prevailing at Colima Volcano is similar to that which preceded these explosive eruptions, when a dome fills the crater. This study proposes seven scenarios for the ash-fall from a Plinian eruption, based on historical eruptive activity, isopach thickness from the 1913 Plinian eruption, land use, socioeconomic data, and a 15-year statistical wind study realized with daily radiosonde data grouped according to four altitudinal levels: 4,000-9,000 (I; 9,000-14,000 (II; 14,000-17,000 (III and 17,000-28,000 (IV m a.s.l., based on common wind speeds and directions. We have integrated the wind distribution at level IV and estimated the ash dispersion for a Plinian eruption. From January to March, the main impact would be towards the northeast, in April and in October, towards the east, in May, towards the north-northeast or north-northwest, from June to August, towards the northwest, in September, towards the west, and in November and December, towards the west-southwest. The fallout would damage the coniferous forests of the Colima National Park, two lagoons and three lakes. More than 30 million people living in Guadalajara, Mexico City, Leon and Colima would suffer eye, respiratory and skin problems. The proximal areas, such as Ciudad Guzman, would be subject to roof collapsing and communication problems. The agricultural and livestock sectors would suffer severe financial losses. The Queseria sugar mill, the Atenquique paper mill, and the cement plants in Zapotiltic would halt work due to chimney obstruction and machinery abrasion. Four thermoelectric plants, twenty airports and four commercial ports would be affected if the eruption occurs in summer.

  7. Hazard Assessment in a Big Data World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

    2017-04-01

    Open data in a Big Data World provides unprecedented opportunities for enhancing scientific studies and better understanding of the Earth System. At the same time, it opens wide avenues for deceptive associations in inter- and transdisciplinary data misleading to erroneous predictions, which are unacceptable for implementation. Even the advanced tools of data analysis may lead to wrong assessments when inappropriately used to describe the phenomenon under consideration. A (self-) deceptive conclusion could be avoided by verification of candidate models in experiments on empirical data and in no other way. Seismology is not an exception. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when subjected to objective hypothesis testing. In many cases of seismic hazard assessment (SHA), either probabilistic or deterministic, term-less or short-term, the claims of a high potential of a model forecasts are based on a flawed application of statistics and, therefore, are hardly suitable for communication to decision makers, which situation creates numerous deception points and resulted controversies. So far, most, if not all, the standard probabilistic methods to assess seismic hazard and associated risks are based on subjective, commonly unrealistic, and even erroneous assumptions about seismic recurrence and none of the proposed short-term precursory signals showed sufficient evidence to be used as a reliable precursor of catastrophic earthquakes. Accurate testing against real observations must be done in advance claiming seismically hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors of the first and second kind in such a comparison permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of parameters in regard to a user-defined cost-benefit function. The information obtained in testing experiments may supply

  8. Hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calley, M.B.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1994-09-19

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG&G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment describes the WERF, the area surrounding WERF, associated buildings and structures at WERF, and the processes performed at WERF. All radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials stored, used, or produced at WERF were identified and screened. Even though the screening process indicated that the hazardous materials could be screened from further analysis because the inventory of radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials were below the screening thresholds specified by DOE and DOE-ID guidance for DOE Order 5500.3A, the nonradiological hazardous materials were analyzed further because it was felt that the nonradiological hazardous material screening thresholds were too high.

  9. The Albano Maar Lake high resolution bathymetry and dissolved CO 2 budget (Colli Albani volcano, Italy): Constrains to hazard evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anzidei, Marco; Carapezza, Maria Luisa; Esposito, Alessandra; Giordano, Guido; Lelli, Matteo; Tarchini, Luca

    2008-04-01

    The Albano Lake is the deepest volcanic lake in Italy (- 167 m) and fills the youngest maar of the quiescent Colli Albani volcano. The lake has undergone significant level changes and lahar generating overflows occurred about 5800 yrs B.P. and likely in 398 b.C., when Romans excavated a tunnel drain through the maar wall. Hazardous lake rollovers and CO 2 release are still possible because the Albano volcano shows active ground deformation, gas emission and periodic seismic swarms. On November 2005, the first high resolution bathymetric survey of the Albano Lake was performed. Here we present the results provided by a Digital Elevation Model and 2-D and 3-D images of the crater lake floor, which is made by coalescent and partly overlapping craters and wide flat surfaces separated by some evident scarps. Submerged shorelines are identified at depths between - 20 m and - 41 m and indicate the occurrence of significant lake level changes, likely between 7.1 and 4.1 ka. The current lake volume is ~ 447.5 × 10 6 m 3 and the total quantity of dissolved CO 2 is 6850 t estimated by chemical analyses of samples collected on May 2006. A decrease of nearly one order of magnitude of the CO 2 dissolved in the lake water below - 120 m, observed from December 1997 to May 2006 (from 4190 to 465 t respectively), has been attributed to lake water overturn. The observed oscillations of the dissolved CO 2 concentrations justify the efforts of monitoring the chemical and physical characteristics of the lake. At present the quantity of dissolved CO 2 is very far from saturation and Nyos-type events cannot presently occur.

  10. Landslide and tsunami hazard at Yate volcano, Chile as an example of edifice destruction on strike-slip fault zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watt, Sebastian F. L.; Pyle, David M.; Naranjo, José A.; Mather, Tamsin A.

    2009-07-01

    The edifice of Yate volcano, a dissected stratocone in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone, has experienced multiple summit collapses throughout postglacial time restricted to sectors NE and SW of the summit. The largest such historic event occurred on 19th February 1965 when ˜6.1-10 × 106 m3 of rock and ice detached from 2,000-m elevation to the SW of the summit and transformed into a debris flow. In the upper part of the flow path, velocities are estimated to have reached 40 m s-1. After travelling 7,500 m and descending 1,490 m, the flow entered an intermontane lake, Lago Cabrera. A wavemaker of estimated volume 9 ± 3 × 106 m3 generated a tsunami with an estimated amplitude of 25 m and a run-up of ˜60 m at the west end of the lake where a settlement disappeared with the loss of 27 lives. The landslide followed 15 days of unusually heavy summer rain, which may have caused failure by increasing pore water pressure in rock mechanically weathered through glacial action. The preferential collapse directions at Yate result from the volcano’s construction on the dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone. Movement on the fault during the lifetime of the volcano is thought to have generated internal instabilities in the observed failure orientations, at ˜10° to the fault zone in the Riedel shear direction. This mechanically weakened rock may have led to preferentially orientated glacial valleys, generating a feedback mechanism with collapse followed by rapid glacial erosion, accelerating the rate of incision into the edifice through repeated landslides. Debris flows with magnitudes similar to the 1965 event are likely to recur at Yate, with repeat times of the order of 102 years. With a warming climate, increased glacial meltwater due to snowline retreat and increasing rain, at the expense of snow, may accelerate rates of edifice collapse, with implications for landslide hazard and risk at glaciated volcanoes, in particular those in strike-slip tectonic

  11. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: Basics of Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA) is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Earthquakes follow the Unified Scaling Law that generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship by taking into account naturally fractal distribution of their sources. Moreover, earthquakes, including the great and mega events, are clustered in time and their sequences have irregular recurrence intervals. Furthermore, earthquake related observations are limited to the recent most decades (or centuries in just a few rare cases). Evidently, all this complicates reliable assessment of seismic hazard and associated risks. Making SHA claims, either termless or time dependent (so-called t-DASH), quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" trials, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous testing of the method predictions against real observations. Therefore, we reiterate the necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing supplies us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified in brief with a few examples, which analyses in more detail are given in a poster of

  12. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  13. The use of FLO2D numerical code in lahar hazard evaluation at Popocatépetl volcano: a 2001 lahar scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Caballero, L.; Capra, L.

    2014-01-01

    Lahar modeling represents an excellent tool for designing hazard maps. It allows the definition of potential inundation zones for different lahar magnitude scenarios and sediment concentrations. Here, we present the results obtained for the 2001 syneruptive lahar at Popocatépetl volcano, based on simulations performed with FLO2D software. An accurate delineation of this event is needed, since it is one of the possible scenarios considered if magmatic activity increases its m...

  14. The use of FLO2D numerical code in lahar hazard evaluation at Popocatépetl volcano: a 2001-lahar scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Caballero, L.; Capra, L.

    2014-01-01

    Lahar modelling represents an excellent tool to design hazard maps. It allows the definition of potential inundation zones for different lahar magnitude scenarios and sediment concentrations. Here we present the results obtained for the 2001 syneruptive lahar at Popocatépetl volcano, based on simulations performed with FLO2D software. An accurate delineation of this event is needed since it is one of the possible scenarios considered during a volcanic crisis...

  15. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-02-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System (VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green-yellow-red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  16. Mapping a Volcano Hazard Area of Mount Sinabung Using Drone: Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarigan, A. P. M.; Suwardhi, D.; Fajri, M. N.; Fahmi, F.

    2017-03-01

    Mount Sinabung is still active since its first eruption in 2010 and has been declared as national disaster. The persistent eruptions afterward have been lively and affected severely the surrounding villages located within the 5 km from its crater. The purpose of this study is to explore drone technology and its applicability in mapping a volcanic hazard area. The first essential step in this study is to have a well-defined mission flight in order to acquire air photos that can be processed in the subsequent procedures. The following steps including geometry correction and photos stitching were conducted automatically using proper software. It is found that the resulting photo mosaic and 3D map can be obtained in effective and efficient manner and several important interpretations can be made from them.

  17. A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

  18. Volcano hazards implications of rhyolitic melt or magma at shallow depth under Krafla Caldera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, John; Papale, Paolo; Sigmundsson, Freysteinn

    2014-05-01

    Krafla Caldera in northern Iceland is a well-monitored and extensively drilled caldera system that underwent a major rifting and eruption episode in 1975 to 1984. The recent surprise discovery of ~900oC "magma" (crystal+melt felsite and possibly crystal-poor rhyolite magma as well) in the Iceland Deep Drilling Project borehole #1 (IDDP-1) in 2009, as well as previous less publicized drilling encounters with rhyolite melt, challenges our understanding of caldera unrest. Further drilling may lead to improved understanding of volcanic hazards in calderas and better interpretation of precursory deformation and seismic signals that may herald eruption. Salient features of the IDDP-1 discovery relative to volcanic hazards are: 1. The rhyolite magma is at only 2.1 km depth. If such magma were known to have intruded to such shallow depth in a populated caldera, there would likely be serious discussion of evacuating the population. 2. The drill site was chosen because magma was not expected at shallow depth, based on the occurrence of seismicity to twice that depth beneath the site during the last eruption, and on 3-D resistivity structure. 3. The eruption was entirely basaltic; no rhyolite reached the surface. Thus, rhyolite magma intruded to shallow depth and was stored there without erupting and without being detected either geophysically or petrologically. An alternative, which seems unlikely, is that the rhyolite evolved from basalt or by basalt-induced partial melting after 1984. If it is possible to return to this magmatic body through further drilling, as recently proposed to the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) by the Krafla Magma Drilling Project, complementary field, laboratory experiments, and computational experiments can be conducted to understand the "source" and how it produces deformation, seismic, and geochemical signals at the surface. Experiments could include injection of fluid with tracers directly into the melt-bearing zone

  19. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  20. A deep scar in the flank of Tenerife (Canary Islands): Geophysical contribution to tsunami hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppo, Nicolas P.; Schnegg, Pierre-André; Falco, Pierik; Costa, Roberto

    2009-05-01

    -782], potential movable volume is an unavoidable parameter to quantify and constrain tsunamigenic hazard. Numerical modelling of a tsunami generated by the potential La Palma landslide concluded that high amplitude waves threaten North Atlantic shorelines [Ward, S.N., Day, S.J., 2001. Cumbre Vieja volcano — Potential collapse and tsunami at La Palma, Canary Islands. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 397-400]. New audiomagnetotelluric results provide for the first time a good estimation of the Icod Valley (Tenerife, Canary Islands) volume, a potential giant landslide threatening the same shorelines. Two profiles image its electrically conductive roots with a characteristic of a U-shaped cross-section thought to be the consequence of previous landslides. By this study, we show that North Atlantic Ocean shorelines might be exposed to a destructive tsunami generated by a subaerial lateral collapse of at least 120 km 3 during the next strong felsic eruptive activity of the Teide-Pico Viejo complex. This article highlights the degree of urgency of carrying out geophysical investigations on the flanks of most volcanic islands prone to potential flank collapse. These investigations will contribute to the understanding of their structure — a key parameter in the sliding process. Finally, all results should be included in model, providing a global map of tsunami hazard assessment.

  1. Assessing Degree of Susceptibility to Landslide Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.; Delgado, H.; Stefanescu, R.

    2013-05-01

    The modeling of hazardous mass flows, both dry and water saturated, is currently an area of active research and several stable models have now emerged that have differing degrees of physical and mathematical fidelity. Models based on the early work of Savage and Hutter (1989) assume that very large dense granular flows could be modeled as incompressible continua governed by a Coulomb failure criterion. Based on this concept, Patra et al. (2005) developed a code for dry avalanches, which proposes a thin layer mathematical model similar to shallow-water equations. This concept was implemented in the widely-used TITAN2D program, which integrates the shock-capturing Godunov solution methodology for the equation system. We propose a method to assess the susceptibility of specific locations susceptible to landslides following heavy tephra fall using the TIATN2D code. Successful application requires that the range of several uncertainties must be framed in the selection of model input data: 1) initial conditions, like volume and location of origin of the landslide, 2) bed and internal friction parameters and 3) digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainties. Among the possible ways of coping with these uncertainties, we chose to use Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). This statistical technique reduces a computationally intractable problem to such an extent that is it possible to apply it, even with current personal computers. LHS requires that there is only one sample in each row and each column of the sampling matrix, where each row (multi-dimensional) corresponds to each uncertainty. LHS requires less than 10% of the sample runs needed by Monte Carlo approaches to achieve a stable solution. In our application LHS output provides model sampling for 4 input parameters: initial random volumes, UTM location (x and y), and bed friction. We developed a simple Octave script to link the output of LHS with TITAN2D. In this way, TITAN2D can run several times with successively different

  2. Assessing volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain using expert judgment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. [Geomatrix Consultants, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Nesbit, J. [Department of Energy, Las Vegas, NV (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-01

    A study to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, termed the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, is being sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This assessment, which is focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will eventually provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption. To ensure that a wide range of approaches are considered in the hazard analysis, judgments of members of an expert panel will be elicited. The results of the individual elicitations will be combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of scientific interpretations. This paper outlines the hazard model components and the procedures for eliciting expert judgments.

  3. Assessment of debris flow hazards using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Wan-jie; Zhuang, Da-fang; Jiang, Dong; Pan, Jian-jun; Ren, Hong-yan

    2012-10-01

    Comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazard risk is challenging due to the complexity and uncertainties of various related factors. A reasonable and reliable assessment should be based on sufficient data and realistic approaches. This study presents a novel approach for assessing debris flow hazard risk using BN (Bayesian Network) and domain knowledge. Based on the records of debris flow hazards and geomorphological/environmental data for the Chinese mainland, approaches based on BN, SVM (Support Vector Machine) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) were compared. BN provided the highest values of hazard detection probability, precision, and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve). The BN model is useful for mapping and assessing debris flow hazard risk on a national scale.

  4. PyBetVH: A Python tool for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for generation of Bayesian hazard curves and maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Anne Thompson, Mary

    2015-06-01

    PyBetVH is a completely new, free, open-source and cross-platform software implementation of the Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH), a tool for estimating the probability of any magmatic hazardous phenomenon occurring in a selected time frame, accounting for all the uncertainties. New capabilities of this implementation include the ability to calculate hazard curves which describe the distribution of the exceedance probability as a function of intensity (e.g., tephra load) on a grid of points covering the target area. The computed hazard curves are (i) absolute (accounting for the probability of eruption in a given time frame, and for all the possible vent locations and eruptive sizes) and (ii) Bayesian (computed at different percentiles, in order to quantify the epistemic uncertainty). Such curves allow representation of the full information contained in the probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) and are well suited to become a main input to quantitative risk analyses. PyBetVH allows for interactive visualization of both the computed hazard curves, and the corresponding Bayesian hazard/probability maps. PyBetVH is designed to minimize the efforts of end users, making PVHA results accessible to people who may be less experienced in probabilistic methodologies, e.g. decision makers. The broad compatibility of Python language has also allowed PyBetVH to be installed on the VHub cyber-infrastructure, where it can be run online or downloaded at no cost. PyBetVH can be used to assess any type of magmatic hazard from any volcano. Here we illustrate how to perform a PVHA through PyBetVH using the example of analyzing tephra fallout from the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), New Zealand, and highlight the range of outputs that the tool can generate.

  5. Volcanic hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera

    OpenAIRE

    Mastrolorenzo, G.; Pappalardo, L; C. Troise; S. Rossano; Panizza, A; G. De Natale

    2006-01-01

    Previous and new results from probabilistic approaches based on available volcanological data from real eruptions of Campi Flegrei, are assembled in a comprehensive assessment of volcanic hazards at the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to compare the volcanic hazards related to the different types of events. Hazard maps based on a very wide set of numerical simulations, produced using field and laboratory data as input parameters relative to the whole range of fallout and pyrocl...

  6. Assessing Landslide Hazard Using Artificial Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, Farzad; Choobbasti, Asskar Janalizadeh; Barari, Amin

    2011-01-01

    neural network has been developed for use in the stability evaluation of slopes under various geological conditions and engineering requirements. The Artificial neural network model of this research uses slope characteristics as input and leads to the output in form of the probability of failure...... and factor of safety. It can be stated that the trained neural networks are capable of predicting the stability of slopes and safety factor of landslide hazard in study area with an acceptable level of confidence. Landslide hazard analysis and mapping can provide useful information for catastrophic loss...

  7. The use of Near-surface Geophysics in Evaluating and Assessing Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellerin, L.

    2007-12-01

    The list of natural hazards that transform the physical environmental is extensive: earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, lahars, landslides and debris flows, avalanches, karst/cavern collapse, heavy-metal contamination, permafrost, liquefaction, and magnetic storms. Because these events or conditions can have significant negative impact on health and infrastructure, the need for knowledge about and education of natural hazards is important. Near-surface geophysics can contribute in significant ways to both the knowledge base and wider understanding of these hazards. The discipline encompasses a wide range of methodologies, some of which are described below. A post-tsunami helicopter electromagnetic (EM) survey along the coasts of Aceh, northern Sumatra was used to discriminate between fresh-water and saltwater aquifers., saltwater intrusion occurred close to the coast as a result of the tsunami and deep saltwater occurrences particularly around 30 m depth were mapped up to several kilometers inland. Based on the survey results recommendations were made to locate shallow hand-dug wells and medium depth (60m) water wells. Utilizing airborne EM and magnetic measurements, a detailed assessment of the internal distribution of altered zones within an active volcano; Mount Rainier (NW USA) showed that alteration is much more restricted than had been inferred from surficial exposures alone. The study also suggested that the collapse of fresh, unaltered portions of the volcano is possible, and no flank of the volcano can be considered immune from lahars during eruption. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has been used worldwide in a variety of applications from geotechnical investigations related to geologic hazards. These include assessment of transportation infrastructure, which maybe be damaged due to a natural hazard, study of the movement of rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, and search and recovery of avalanche victims. Permafrost is widespread in polar areas and cold

  8. Composite Material Hazard Assessment at Crash Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    wing tip areas and around cockpit, and the A-7D landing gear bushings Lithium thionyl chloride Soft, silvery highly reactive metallic...per the NIOSH Method 7400 fiber counting method. Pre-weighed 37-mm polyvinyl chloride (PVC) filters captured total particulate concentrations...computer batteries Pressurized tanks and aircraft parts Compressed liquids and gases (oxygen); tires Physical and chemical hazards from

  9. ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS ON WASTE LANDFILLS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zania, Varvara; Tsompanakis, Yiannis; Psarropoulos, Prodromos

    importance, the current study examines the impact of both types of earthquake hazards by performing efficient finite-element analyses. These took also into account the potential slip displacement development along the geosynthetic interfaces of the composite base liner. At first, the development of permanent...

  10. Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

    2009-04-01

    A successful landslide hazard and risk assessment requires awareness and good understanding of the potential landslide problems within the geographic area involved. However, this requirement is not always met in developing countries where population, scientific community, and the government may not be aware of the landslide threat. The landslide hazard assessment is often neglected or is based on sparse and not well documented technical information. In Nicaragua (Central America), the basic conditions for landslide hazard and risk assessment were first created after the catastrophic landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. A single landslide took the life of thousands of people at Casita volcano forcing entire communities to be evacuated or relocated and, furthermore, thousands of smaller landslides caused loss of fertile soils and pasture lands, and made serious damages to the infrastructure. Since those events occurred, the public awareness has increased and the country relies now on new local and national governmental laws and policies, on a number of landslide investigations, and on educational and training programs. Dozens of geologists have been capacitated to investigate landslide prone areas, The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), governmental geo-scientific institution, has assumed the responsibility to help land-use planners and public officials to reduce geological hazard losses. They are committed to work cooperatively with national, international, and local agencies, universities and the private sector to provide scientific information and improve public safety through forecasting and warnings. However, in order to provide successful long-term landslide hazard assessment, the institutions must face challenges related to the scarcity and varied quality of available landslide information; collection and access to dispersed data and documents; organization of landslide information in a form that can be easy to

  11. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Horspool

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years, the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  12. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  13. Assessing Landslide Hazard Using Artificial Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, Farzad; Choobbasti, Asskar Janalizadeh; Barari, Amin

    2011-01-01

    neural network has been developed for use in the stability evaluation of slopes under various geological conditions and engineering requirements. The Artificial neural network model of this research uses slope characteristics as input and leads to the output in form of the probability of failure...... and factor of safety. It can be stated that the trained neural networks are capable of predicting the stability of slopes and safety factor of landslide hazard in study area with an acceptable level of confidence. Landslide hazard analysis and mapping can provide useful information for catastrophic loss...... failure" which is main concentration of the current research and "liquefaction failure". Shear failures along shear planes occur when the shear stress along the sliding surfaces exceed the effective shear strength. These slides have been referred to as landslide. An expert system based on artificial...

  14. Multi-risk assessment: from natural hazards to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    The World Bank report on the main hotspots of natural hazards highlights that million people in the world are relatively highly exposed to at least two hazards and additional impacts on natural and human systems can be posed by climate change. Therefore, a major challenge for natural hazard and climate impact research is to develop new methods and tools for the aggregation of cumulative effects expected from multiple impacts forced by natural and anthropogenic drivers across different regions and sectors, taking into account changing climate, exposure and vulnerability. So far, a hazard by hazard approach has been generally applied for evaluating the consequences of natural and climate change hazards on the analyzed region (e.g. heavy precipitations, floods, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surges). However, different natural hazards and climate-related impacts affecting a region should be handled according to a multi-risk approach in order to aggregate, compare and rank different kinds of concurrent impacts caused by climate change. Several EU funded projects (e.g. ESPON-HAZARD, ARMONIA, MATRIX) were developed so far in order to provide sound scientific advancement towards the elaboration of multi-risk approaches. A full multi-risk approach entails both a multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability perspective. However, internationally, most of the work concerning multi-hazards focused especially on natural hazards (e.g. flooding, storm surges, landslides, seismicity, droughts) affecting the same area. Moreover, multi-risk approaches developed so far refer only to the assessment of different hazards and rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities for different exposed elements), also called multi-hazard risk assessment. A relevant challenge is therefore to develop a comprehensive formal approach for the assessment of different natural and climate-induced hazards and risks at the regional scale. A critical review of existing

  15. Hail hazard assessment: A new approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Michael; Puskeiler, Marc

    2010-05-01

    Severe hailstorms that occur almost exclusively in the summer months carry a high risk for buildings, vehicles, and crops. In the federal state of Baden-Württemberg in Southwest Germany, nearly 40% of the total damage to buildings between 1986 and 2008 are related to large hail, with the mean annual loss amounting to almost EUR 50 million. Single extreme events with a low probability of occurrence, however, exhibit a damage potential that by far exceeds the mean annual loss. Due to the high risk potential associated with large hail, comprehensive information about the local probability of occurrence is essential for loss prevention and risk management purposes. This is a big challenge, because convection-related weather phenomena like hail with a typical horizontal extent of several hundred meters only usually are not captured accurately and uniquely by a single observation system. A new method for the assessment of the hail hazard in high spatial resolution will be presented. By applying a cell tracking algorithm to 2D and 3D radar data, individual tracks of severe hailstorms are detected. To close the gap between radar reflectivity measured at a certain level in the atmosphere and hail occurrence on the ground, insurance loss data were additionally used. This approach will be complemented by tracks derived from lightning data. From the combination of the different data sets, hail streaks that are related to damage to vulnerable structures can be identified. These streaks are projected on a 10 × 10 km2 grid in order to quantify hail track density. By statistical modelling of extremes, a cumulative distribution function (generalized Pareto distribution) is estimated, which relates radar reflectivity and probability of occurrence. First results are available for a test region in Southwest Germany for a period between 1997 and 2007, where all data sets are available. The results reveal a high spatial variability in track density. Lowest probabilities are found over

  16. Mine aftershocks and implications for seismic hazard assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kgarume, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A methodology of assessing the seismic hazard associated with aftershocks is developed by performing statistical and deterministic analysis of seismic data from two South African deep-level gold mines. A method employing stacking of aftershocks...

  17. Assessment and prediction of debris-flow hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, Gerald F.; ,

    1993-01-01

    Study of debris-flow geomorphology and initiation mechanism has led to better understanding of debris-flow processes. This paper reviews how this understanding is used in current techniques for assessment and prediction of debris-flow hazards.

  18. Remote Sensing of Active Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis, Peter; Rothery, David

    The synoptic coverage offered by satellites provides unparalleled opportunities for monitoring active volcanoes, and opens new avenues of scientific inquiry. Thermal infrared radiation can be used to monitor levels of activity, which is useful for automated eruption detection and for studying the emplacement of lava flows. Satellite radars can observe volcanoes through clouds or at night, and provide high-resolution topographic data. In favorable conditions, radar inteferometery can be used to measure ground deformation associated with eruptive activity on a centimetric scale. Clouds from explosive eruptions present a pressing hazard to aviation; therefore, techniques are being developed to assess eruption cloud height and to discriminate between ash and meterological clouds. The multitude of sensors to be launched on future generations of space platforms promises to greatly enhance volcanological studies, but a satellite dedicated to volcanology is needed to meet requirements of aviation safety and volcano monitoring.

  19. Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico - behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Macías, J. L.; Scott, K. M.; Abrams, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.

    2002-03-01

    Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.

  20. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D. [New Brunswick Power Corp., Point Lepreau Generating Station, Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada); Lavine, A. [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure Americas, Oakland, California (United States); Egan, J. [SAGE Engineers, Oakland, California (United States)

    2015-09-15

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS). The objective is to provide characterization of the earthquake ground shaking that will be used to evaluate seismic safety. The assessment is based on the current state of knowledge of the informed scientific and engineering community regarding earthquake hazards in the site region, and includes two primary components-a seismic source model and a ground motion model. This paper provides the methodology and results of the PLGS PSHA. The implications of the updated hazard information for site safety are discussed in a separate paper. (author)

  1. Volcano-hazards Education for Emergency Officials Through Study Trip Learning—The 2013 Colombia-USA Bi-national Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driedger, C. L.; Ewert, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    A central tenant of hazard communication is that colleagues with principal responsibilities for emergency planning and response sustain a 'long-term conversation' that builds trust, and increases understanding of hazards and successful protocols. This requires well maintained partnerships among a broad spectrum of officials who are knowledgeable about volcano hazards; credible within their communities; and who have personal and professional stake in their community's safety. It can require that volcano scientists facilitate learning opportunities for partners in emergency management who have little or no familiarity with eruption response. Scientists and officials from Colombia and the Cascades region of the United States recognized that although separated by geographic and cultural distance, their communities faced similar hazards from lahars. For the purpose of sharing best practices, the 2013 Colombia-USA Bi-national Exchange was organized by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the Washington Emergency Management Division, with support from the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Nine Colombian emergency officials and scientists visited the U.S. to observe emergency response planning and protocols and to view the scale of a potential lahar disaster at Mount Rainier. Ten U.S. delegates visited Colombia to absorb best practices developed after the catastrophic 1985 eruption and lahars at Nevado del Ruiz. They observed the devastation and spoke with survivors, first responders, and emergency managers responsible for post-disaster recovery efforts. Delegates returned to their nations energized and with improved knowledge about volcanic crises and effective mitigation and response. In the U.S., trainings, hazard signage, evacuation routes and assembly points, and community websites have gained momentum. Colombian officials gained a deeper appreciation of and a renewed commitment to response planning, education, and disaster preparedness.

  2. A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the city of Naples (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anita, G.; Tonini, R.; Selva, J.; Sandri, L.; Pierdominici, S.; Faenza, L.; Zaccarelli, L.

    2012-12-01

    A comprehensive Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) should consider different tsunamigenic sources (seismic events, slide failures, volcanic eruptions) to calculate the hazard on given target sites. This implies a multi-disciplinary analysis of all natural tsunamigenic sources, in a multi-hazard/risk framework, which considers also the effects of interaction/cascade events. Our approach shows the ongoing effort to analyze the comprehensive PTHA for the city of Naples (Italy) including all types of sources located in the Tyrrhenian Sea, as developed within the Italian project ByMuR (Bayesian Multi-Risk Assessment). The project combines a multi-hazard/risk approach to treat the interactions among different hazards, and a Bayesian approach to handle the uncertainties. The natural potential tsunamigenic sources analyzed are: 1) submarine seismic sources located on active faults in the Tyrrhenian Sea and close to the Southern Italian shore line (also we consider the effects of the inshore seismic sources and the associated active faults which we provide their rapture properties), 2) mass failures and collapses around the target area (spatially identified on the basis of their propensity to failure), and 3) volcanic sources mainly identified by pyroclastic flows and collapses from the volcanoes in the Neapolitan area (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia). All these natural sources are here preliminary analyzed and combined, in order to provide a complete picture of a PTHA for the city of Naples. In addition, the treatment of interaction/cascade effects is formally discussed in the case of significant temporary variations in the short-term PTHA due to an earthquake.

  3. Hazardous Waste Minimization Assessment: Fort Carson, CO

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Management Office. The contributions made by Ms. Sharon McClellan (FORSCOM); and Mr. Chittaranjan Ray and Mr. Richard Stanbaugh (both of USACERL), in...IL 60160 (solvents: TCE, 1,1,1-TCE. PCE) Branson Cleaning Equipment S111W 9-15 gal/h -- Co. S121W 21-31 gal/h -- Parrot Drive, P.O. Box 768 Shelton...In addition, boiler blowdown liquid mixed with water is a hazardous waste generated periodically. Waste oil blended with virgin fuel oil is burned in

  4. Hazardous Waste Minimization Assessment: Fort Ord, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-06-01

    Gloria J. Wienke, USACERL Information Management Office. The contributions made by Ms. Sharon McClellan (FORSCOM); and Mr. Chittaranjan Ray, Mr. Richard ...gal/h ... Melrose Park, IL 60160 (solvents: TCE, 1,1,1-TCE, PCE) Branson Cleaning Equipment SilW 9-15 gal/h -- Co. S121W 21-31 gal/h -- Parrot Drive...boiler blowdown liquid mixed with water is a hazardous waste generated periodically. Waste oil blended with virgin fuel oil is burned in boilers at some

  5. Numerical Simulation and Probabilistic Hazard Assessment of Tephra Fallout at Jinlongdingzi Volcano, Longgang Volcanic Field in Jilin Province%龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于红梅; 许建东; 吴建平; 栾鹏; 赵波

    2013-01-01

    空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法.本文根据改进的Suzuki (1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序.通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性.根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图.本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据.%Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by explosive volcanic eruption. Numerical simulation has become a fast and effective approach to assess the dispersion and deposition of tephra fallout. According to a modified 2D diffusion model of Suzuki (1983), we develop a tephra diffusion program that can run in Windows system. Based on previous data, we simulated the diffusion scope of Jinlongdingzi volcanic eruption, which is the latest eruption in Longgang volcanic field. The simulated results are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are suitable. By using wind profiles of ten years, 7021 simulations under different wind profile were carried out, and then probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout were constructed for tephra thickness thresholds of 1 cm and 0.5 cm. This study can provide an important scientific basis to the volcanic hazard analysis and risk mitigation plans countermeasure in Longgang volcanic area.

  6. Fractal analysis of experimentally generated pyroclasts: A tool for volcanic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perugini, Diego; Kueppers, Ulrich

    2012-06-01

    Rapid decompression experiments on natural volcanic rocks mimick explosive eruptions. Fragment size distributions (FSD) of such experimentally generated pyroclasts are investigated using fractal geometry. The fractal dimension of fragmentation, D, of FSD is measured for samples from Unzen (Japan) and Popocatépetl (Mexico) volcanoes. Results show that: (i) FSD are fractal and can be quantified by measuring D values; (ii) D increases linearly with potential energy for fragmentation (PEF) and, thus, with increasing applied pressure; (iii) the rate of increase of D with PEF depends on open porosity: the higher the open porosity, the lower the increase of D with PEF; (iv) at comparable open porosity, samples display a similar behavior for any rock composition. The method proposed here has the potential to become a standard routine to estimate eruptive energy of past and recent eruptions using values of D and open porosity, providing an important step towards volcanic hazard assessment.

  7. Advanced Manufacturing Processes Laboratory Building 878 hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, C.; Thornton, W.; Swihart, A.; Gilman, T.

    1994-07-01

    The introduction of the hazards assessment process is to document the impact of the release of hazards at the Advanced Manufacturing Processes Laboratory (AMPL) that are significant enough to warrant consideration in Sandia National Laboratories` operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment is prepared in accordance with the Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requirement that facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment provides an analysis of the potential airborne release of chemicals associated with the operations and processes at the AMPL. This research and development laboratory develops advanced manufacturing technologies, practices, and unique equipment and provides the fabrication of prototype hardware to meet the needs of Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico (SNL/NM). The focus of the hazards assessment is the airborne release of materials because this requires the most rapid, coordinated emergency response on the part of the AMPL, SNL/NM, collocated facilities, and surrounding jurisdiction to protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  8. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment - Application to the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, M. B.; Spada, M.; Babeyko, A.; Wiemer, S.; Grünthal, G.

    2009-12-01

    Following several large tsunami events around the world in the recent years, the tsunami hazard is becoming an increasing concern. The traditional way of assessing tsunami hazard has been through deterministic scenario calculations which provide the expected wave heights due to a given tsunami source, usually a worst-case scenario. For quantitative hazard and risk assessment, however, it is necessary to move towards a probabilistic framework. In this study we focus on earthquake generated tsunamis and present a scheme for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA). Our PTHA methodology is based on the use of Monte-Carlo simulations and follows probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies closely. The PTHA is performed in four steps. First, earthquake and tsunami catalogues are analyzed in order to define a number of potential tsunami sources in the study area. For each of these sources, activity rates, maximum earthquake magnitude and uncertainties are assigned. Following, a synthetic earthquake catalogue is established, based on the information about the sources. The third step is to calculate multiple synthetic tsunami scenarios for all potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes in the synthetic catalogue. The tsunami scenarios are then combined at the fourth step to generate hazard curves and maps. We implement the PTHA methodology in the Mediterranean Sea, where numerous tsunami events have been reported in history. We derive a 100000 year-long catalog of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes and calculate tsunami propagation scenarios for ca. 85000 M6.5+ earthquakes from the synthetic catalog. Results show that the highest tsunami hazard is attributed to the Eastern Mediterranean region, but that also the Western Mediterranean can experience significant tsunami waves for long return periods. Hazard maps will be presented for a range of probability levels together with hazard curves for selected critical locations.

  9. Uncertainty and Probability in Natural Hazard Assessment and Their Role in the Testability of Hazard Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Jordan, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic assessment has become a widely accepted procedure to estimate quantitatively natural hazards. In essence probabilities are meant to quantify the ubiquitous and deep uncertainties that characterize the evolution of natural systems. However, notwithstanding the very wide use of the terms 'uncertainty' and 'probability' in natural hazards, the way in which they are linked, how they are estimated and their scientific meaning are far from being clear, as testified by the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and by its subsequent review. The lack of a formal framework to interpret uncertainty and probability coherently has paved the way for some of the strongest critics of hazard analysis; in fact, it has been argued that most of natural hazard analyses are intrinsically 'unscientific'. For example, among the concerns is the use of expert opinion to characterize the so-called epistemic uncertainties; many have argued that such personal degrees of belief cannot be measured and, by implication, cannot be tested. The purpose of this talk is to confront and clarify the conceptual issues associated with the role of uncertainty and probability in natural hazard analysis and the conditions that make a hazard model testable and then 'scientific'. Specifically, we show that testability of hazard models requires a suitable taxonomy of uncertainty embedded in a proper logical framework. This taxonomy of uncertainty is composed by aleatory variability, epistemic uncertainty, and ontological error. We discuss their differences, the link with the probability, and their estimation using data, models, and subjective expert opinion. We show that these different uncertainties, and the testability of hazard models, can be unequivocally defined only for a well-defined experimental concept that is a concept external to the model under test. All these discussions are illustrated through simple examples related to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

  10. Assessing lahars from ice-capped volcanoes using ASTER satellite data, the SRTM DTM and two different flow models: case study on Iztaccíhuatl (Central Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D.; Delgado Granados, H.; Huggel, C.; Kääb, A.

    2008-06-01

    Lahars frequently affect the slopes of ice-capped volcanoes. They can be triggered by volcano-ice interactions during eruptions but also by processes such as intense precipitation or by outbursts of glacial water bodies not directly related to eruptive activity. We use remote sensing, GIS and lahar models in combination with ground observations for an initial lahar hazard assessment on Iztaccíhuatl volcano (5230 m a.s.l.), considering also possible future developments of the glaciers on the volcano. Observations of the glacial extent are important for estimations of future hazard scenarios, especially in a rapidly changing tropical glacial environment. In this study, analysis of the glaciers on Iztaccíhuatl shows a dramatic retreat during the last 150 years: the glaciated area in 2007 corresponds to only 4% of the one in 1850 AD and the glaciers are expected to survive no later than the year 2020. Most of the glacial retreat is considered to be related to climate change but in-situ observations suggest also that geo- and hydrothermal heat flow at the summit-crater area can not be ruled out, as emphasized by fumarolic activity documented in a former study. However, development of crater lakes and englacial water reservoirs are supposed to be a more realistic scenario for lahar generation than sudden ice melting by rigorous volcano-ice interaction. Model calculations show that possible outburst floods have to be larger than ~5×105 m3 or to achieve an H/L ratio (Height/runout Length) of 0.2 and lower in order to reach the populated lower flanks. This threshold volume equals 2.4% melted ice of Iztaccíhuatl's total ice volume in 2007, assuming 40% water and 60% volumetric debris content of a potential lahar. The model sensitivity analysis reveals important effects of the generic type of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) used on the results. As a consequence, the predicted affected areas can vary significantly. For such hazard zonation, we therefore suggest the use of

  11. Assessing lahars from ice-capped volcanoes using ASTER satellite data, the SRTM DTM and two different flow models: case study on Iztaccíhuatl (Central Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Schneider

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Lahars frequently affect the slopes of ice-capped volcanoes. They can be triggered by volcano-ice interactions during eruptions but also by processes such as intense precipitation or by outbursts of glacial water bodies not directly related to eruptive activity. We use remote sensing, GIS and lahar models in combination with ground observations for an initial lahar hazard assessment on Iztaccíhuatl volcano (5230 m a.s.l., considering also possible future developments of the glaciers on the volcano. Observations of the glacial extent are important for estimations of future hazard scenarios, especially in a rapidly changing tropical glacial environment. In this study, analysis of the glaciers on Iztaccíhuatl shows a dramatic retreat during the last 150 years: the glaciated area in 2007 corresponds to only 4% of the one in 1850 AD and the glaciers are expected to survive no later than the year 2020. Most of the glacial retreat is considered to be related to climate change but in-situ observations suggest also that geo- and hydrothermal heat flow at the summit-crater area can not be ruled out, as emphasized by fumarolic activity documented in a former study. However, development of crater lakes and englacial water reservoirs are supposed to be a more realistic scenario for lahar generation than sudden ice melting by rigorous volcano-ice interaction. Model calculations show that possible outburst floods have to be larger than ~5×105 m3 or to achieve an H/L ratio (Height/runout Length of 0.2 and lower in order to reach the populated lower flanks. This threshold volume equals 2.4% melted ice of Iztaccíhuatl's total ice volume in 2007, assuming 40% water and 60% volumetric debris content of a potential lahar. The model sensitivity analysis reveals important effects of the generic type of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM used on the results. As a consequence, the predicted affected areas can vary significantly. For such

  12. BET-VH: A Probabilistic Tool for Long- and Short-Term Volcanic Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Selva, J.; Sandri, L.

    2005-12-01

    The purpose of this work is to present the probabilistic code BET-VH (Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard) for long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment. BET-VH follows the probabilistic scheme recently published by Marzocchi et al. (2004; Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mt. Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., vol. 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB003155), and it includes the fuzzy logic to minimize the effects of the choice of some particular thresholds of the model. In brief, BET-VH is based on a Bayesian approach applied to an Event Tree scheme that produces the probability estimation of any possible event in which we are interested, using all available information including theoretical models, historical and geological data, and monitoring observations. The general sequence is to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, to modify that using data. The procedure deals with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a formal way, through the estimation of probability distributions at each node of the Event Tree. In order to illustrate the potentiality of BET-VH in managing emergencies and in land use planning, we present applications of the code to some explosive volcanoes.

  13. Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments of Pyroclastic Density Currents: ongoing practices and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Ramona Stefanescu, Elena; Patra, Abani; Marzocchi, Warner; Costa, Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Explosive volcanoes and, especially, Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs) pose an enormous threat to populations living in the surroundings of volcanic areas. Difficulties in the modeling of PDCs are related to (i) very complex and stochastic physical processes, intrinsic to their occurrence, and (ii) to a lack of knowledge about how these processes actually form and evolve. This means that there are deep uncertainties (namely, of aleatory nature due to point (i) above, and of epistemic nature due to point (ii) above) associated to the study and forecast of PDCs. Consequently, the assessment of their hazard is better described in terms of probabilistic approaches rather than by deterministic ones. What is actually done to assess probabilistic hazard from PDCs is to couple deterministic simulators with statistical techniques that can, eventually, supply probabilities and inform about the uncertainties involved. In this work, some examples of both PDC numerical simulators (Energy Cone and TITAN2D) and uncertainty quantification techniques (Monte Carlo sampling -MC-, Polynomial Chaos Quadrature -PCQ- and Bayesian Linear Emulation -BLE-) are presented, and their advantages, limitations and future potential are underlined. The key point in choosing a specific method leans on the balance between its related computational cost, the physical reliability of the simulator and the pursued target of the hazard analysis (type of PDCs considered, time-scale selected for the analysis, particular guidelines received from decision-making agencies, etc.). Although current numerical and statistical techniques have brought important advances in probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment from PDCs, some of them may be further applicable to more sophisticated simulators. In addition, forthcoming improvements could be focused on three main multidisciplinary directions: 1) Validate the simulators frequently used (through comparison with PDC deposits and other simulators), 2) Decrease

  14. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  15. The dispersal of ash during explosive eruptions from central volcanoes and calderas: an underestimated hazard for the central Mediterranean area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sulpizio, Roberto [CIRISIVU, c/o Dipartimento Geomineralogico, via Orabona 4, 70125, Bari (Italy); Caron, Benoit; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Santacroce, Roberto [Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, via S. Maria 53, 56126, Pisa (Italy); Giaccio, Biagio [Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria, CNR, Via Bolognola 7, 00138 Rome (Italy); Paterne, Martine [LSCE, Laboratoire Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Avenue de la Terrasse 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Siani, Giuseppe [IDES-UMR 8148, Universite Paris-XI, 91405 Orsay Cedex (France)], E-mail: r.sulpizio@geomin.uniba.it

    2008-10-01

    The central Mediterranean area comprises some of the most active volcanoes of the northern hemisphere. Some of their names recall myths or events in human history: Somma-Vesuvius, Etna, Stromboli, Vulcano, Ischia and Campi Flegrei. These volcanoes are still active today, and produce both effusive and explosive eruptions. In particular, explosive eruptions can produce and disperse large amount of volcanic ash, which pose a threat to environment, economy and human health over a large part of the Mediterranean area. We present and discuss data of ash dispersal from some explosive eruptions of southern Italy volcanoes, which dispersed centimetre -thick ash blankets hundred of kilometres from the source, irrespective of the more limited dispersal of the respective coarse grained fallout and PDC deposits. The collected data also highlight the major role played by lower atmosphere winds in dispersal of ash from weak plumes and ash clouds that accompany PDC emplacement.

  16. Correlating regional natural hazards for global reinsurance risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, Hamish; Maynard, Trevor; Economou, Theo; Fox, Helen; Wallace, Emily; Maisey, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Concurrent natural hazards represent an uncertainty in assessing exposure for the insurance industry. The recently implemented Solvency II Directive requires EU insurance companies to fully understand and justify their capital reserving and portfolio decisions. Lloyd's, the London insurance and reinsurance market, commissioned the Met Office to investigate the dependencies between different global extreme weather events (known to the industry as perils), and the mechanisms for these dependencies, with the aim of helping them assess their compound risk to the exposure of multiple simultaneous hazards. In this work, we base the analysis of hazard-to-hazard dependency on the interaction of different modes of global and regional climate variability. Lloyd's defined 16 key hazard regions, including Australian wildfires, flooding in China and EU windstorms, and we investigate the impact of 10 key climate modes on these areas. We develop a statistical model that facilitates rapid risk assessment whilst allowing for both temporal auto-correlation and, crucially, interdependencies between drivers. The simulator itself is built conditionally using autoregressive regression models for each driver conditional on the others. Whilst the baseline assumption within the (re)insurance industry is that different natural hazards are independent of each other, the assumption of independence of meteorological risks requires greater justification. Although our results suggest that most of the 120 hazard-hazard connections considered are likely to be independent of each other, 13 have significant dependence arising from one or more global modes of climate variability. This allows us to create a matrix of linkages describing the hazard dependency structure that Lloyd's can use to inform their understanding of risk.

  17. Influence of expertise on rockfall hazard assessment using empirical methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delonca, Adeline; Verdel, Thierry; Gunzburger, Yann

    2016-07-01

    To date, many rockfall hazard assessment methods still consider qualitative observations within their analysis. Based on this statement, knowledge and expertise are supposed to be major parameters of rockfall assessment. To test this hypothesis, an experiment was carried out in order to evaluate the influence of knowledge and expertise on rockfall hazard assessment. Three populations were selected, having different levels of expertise: (1) students in geosciences, (2) researchers in geosciences and (3) confirmed experts. These three populations evaluated the rockfall hazard level on the same site, considering two different methods: the Laboratoire des Ponts et Chaussées (LPC) method and a method partly based on the "slope mass rating" (SMR) method. To complement the analysis, the completion of an "a priori" assessment of the rockfall hazard was requested of each population, without using any method. The LPC method is the most widely used method in France for official hazard mapping. It combines two main indicators: the predisposition to instability and the expected magnitude. Reversely, the SMR method was used as an ad hoc quantitative method to investigate the effect of quantification within a method. These procedures were applied on a test site divided into three different sectors. A statistical treatment of the results (descriptive statistical analysis, chi-square independent test and ANOVA) shows that there is a significant influence of the method used on the rockfall hazard assessment, whatever the sector. However, there is a non-significant influence of the level of expertise of the population the sectors 2 and 3. On sector 1, there is a significant influence of the level of expertise, explained by the importance of the temporal probability assessment in the rockfall hazard assessment process. The SMR-based method seems highly sensitive to the "site activity" indicator and exhibits an important dispersion in its results. However, the results are more similar

  18. Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Zaccarelli, Lucia; Di Vito, Mauro Antonio; Sulpizio, Roberto; Marzocchi, Warner

    2016-11-01

    Pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are gravity-driven hot mixtures of gas and volcanic particles which can propagate at high speed and cover distances up to several tens of kilometers around a given volcano. Therefore, they pose a severe hazard to the surroundings of explosive volcanoes able to produce such phenomena. Despite this threat, probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) of PDCs is still in an early stage of development. PVHA is rooted in the quantification of the large uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic) which characterize volcanic hazard analyses. This quantification typically requires a big dataset of hazard footprints obtained from numerical simulations of the physical process. For PDCs, numerical models range from very sophisticated (not useful for PVHA because of their very long runtimes) to very simple models (criticized because of their highly simplified physics). We present here a systematic and robust validation testing of a simple PDC model, the energy cone (EC), to unravel whether it can be applied to PVHA of PDCs. Using past PDC deposits at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy), we assess the ability of EC to capture the values and variability in some relevant variables for hazard assessment, i.e., area of PDC invasion and maximum runout. In terms of area of invasion, the highest Jaccard coefficients range from 0.33 to 0.86 which indicates an equal or better performance compared to other volcanic mass-flow models. The p values for the observed maximum runouts vary from 0.003 to 0.44. Finally, the frequencies of PDC arrival computed from the EC are similar to those determined from the spatial distribution of past PDC deposits, with high PDC-arrival frequencies over an ˜8-km radius from the crater area at Somma-Vesuvius and around the Astroni crater at Campi Flegrei. The insights derived from our validation tests seem to indicate that the EC is a suitable candidate to compute PVHA of PDCs.

  19. Revolutionary Wake Hazard Assessment Tool Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Continuum Dynamics, Inc. (CDI) has developed a Multiple Aircraft Simulation Tool (MAST) that revolutionizes the ability to predict and assess wake interactions...

  20. ASSESSMENT OF RUNWAY ACCIDENT HAZARDS IN NIGERIA AVIATION SECTOR

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Aviation crashes all over the world have recently been on the high rise, stemming from negligence, mechanical faults, weather, ground control errors, pilot errors, taxing and maintenance crew errors as probable reasons for such accidents. This study models the probabilistic risk assessment of runway accident hazards in Nigeria aviation sector. Six categories of runway accident hazards with their corresponding basic events were identified and modeled using fault tree analysis method of probabi...

  1. Debris flow hazards mitigation--Mechanics, prediction, and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C.-L.; Major, J.J.

    2007-01-01

    These proceedings contain papers presented at the Fourth International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment held in Chengdu, China, September 10-13, 2007. The papers cover a wide range of topics on debris-flow science and engineering, including the factors triggering debris flows, geomorphic effects, mechanics of debris flows (e.g., rheology, fluvial mechanisms, erosion and deposition processes), numerical modeling, various debris-flow experiments, landslide-induced debris flows, assessment of debris-flow hazards and risk, field observations and measurements, monitoring and alert systems, structural and non-structural countermeasures against debris-flow hazards and case studies. The papers reflect the latest devel-opments and advances in debris-flow research. Several studies discuss the development and appli-cation of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) technologies in debris-flow hazard/risk assessment. Timely topics presented in a few papers also include the development of new or innovative techniques for debris-flow monitoring and alert systems, especially an infra-sound acoustic sensor for detecting debris flows. Many case studies illustrate a wide variety of debris-flow hazards and related phenomena as well as their hazardous effects on human activities and settlements.

  2. Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

  3. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  4. Uncertainty on shallow landslide hazard assessment: from field data to hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trefolini, Emanuele; Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Eduardo; Broggi, Matteo; Disperati, Leonardo; Le Tuan, Hai

    2015-04-01

    Shallow landsliding that involve Hillslope Deposits (HD), the surficial soil that cover the bedrock, is an important process of erosion, transport and deposition of sediment along hillslopes. Despite Shallow landslides generally mobilize relatively small volume of material, they represent the most hazardous factor in mountain regions due to their high velocity and the common absence of warning signs. Moreover, increasing urbanization and likely climate change make shallow landslides a source of widespread risk, therefore the interest of scientific community about this process grown in the last three decades. One of the main aims of research projects involved on this topic, is to perform robust shallow landslides hazard assessment for wide areas (regional assessment), in order to support sustainable spatial planning. Currently, three main methodologies may be implemented to assess regional shallow landslides hazard: expert evaluation, probabilistic (or data mining) methods and physical models based methods. The aim of this work is evaluate the uncertainty of shallow landslides hazard assessment based on physical models taking into account spatial variables such as: geotechnical and hydrogeologic parameters as well as hillslope morphometry. To achieve this goal a wide dataset of geotechnical properties (shear strength, permeability, depth and unit weight) of HD was gathered by integrating field survey, in situ and laboratory tests. This spatial database was collected from a study area of about 350 km2 including different bedrock lithotypes and geomorphological features. The uncertainty associated to each step of the hazard assessment process (e.g. field data collection, regionalization of site specific information and numerical modelling of hillslope stability) was carefully characterized. The most appropriate probability density function (PDF) was chosen for each numerical variable and we assessed the uncertainty propagation on HD strength parameters obtained by

  5. Flank instability assessment at Kick-'em-Jenny submarine volcano (Grenada, Lesser Antilles): a multidisciplinary approach using experiments and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dondin, F. J.-Y.; Heap, M. J.; Robertson, R. E. A.; Dorville, J.-F. M.; Carey, S.

    2017-01-01

    Kick-'em-Jenny (KeJ)—located ca. 8 km north of the island of Grenada—is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc. Previous investigations of KeJ revealed that it lies within a collapse scar inherited from a past flank instability episode. To assess the likelihood of future collapse, we employ here a combined laboratory and modeling approach. Lavas collected using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) provided samples to perform the first rock physical property measurements for the materials comprising the KeJ edifice. Uniaxial and triaxial deformation experiments showed that the dominant failure mode within the edifice host rock is brittle. Edifice fractures (such as those at Champagne Vent) will therefore assist the outgassing of the nearby magma-filled conduit, favoring effusive behavior. These laboratory data were then used as input parameters in models of slope stability. First, relative slope stability analysis revealed that the SW to N sector of the volcano displays a deficit of mass/volume with respect to a volcanoid (ideal 3D surface). Slope stability analysis using a limit equilibrium method (LEM) showed that KeJ is currently stable, since all values of stability factor or factor of safety (Fs) are greater than unity. The lowest values of Fs were found for the SW-NW sector of the volcano (the sector displaying a mass/volume deficit). Although currently stable, KeJ may become unstable in the future. Instability (severe reductions in Fs) could result, for example, from overpressurization due to the growth of a cryptodome. Our modeling has shown that instability-induced flank collapse will most likely initiate from the SW-NW sector of KeJ, therefore mobilizing a volume of at least ca. 0.7 km3. The mobilization of ca. 0.7 km3 of material is certainly capable of generating a tsunami that poses a significant hazard to the southern islands of the West Indies.

  6. Accumulation risk assessment for the flooding hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Giorgio; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Rudari, Roberto

    2010-05-01

    One of the main consequences of the demographic and economic development and of markets and trades globalization is represented by risks cumulus. In most cases, the cumulus of risks intuitively arises from the geographic concentration of a number of vulnerable elements in a single place. For natural events, risks cumulus can be associated, in addition to intensity, also to event's extension. In this case, the magnitude can be such that large areas, that may include many regions or even large portions of different countries, are stroked by single, catastrophic, events. Among natural risks, the impact of the flooding hazard cannot be understated. To cope with, a variety of mitigation actions can be put in place: from the improvement of monitoring and alert systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection, financial and insurance plans. All of those viable options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - flood risk scenarios. It is therefore necessary to identify proper statistical methodologies, able to describe the multivariate aspects of the involved physical processes and their spatial dependence. In hydrology and meteorology, but also in finance and insurance practice, it has early been recognized that classical statistical theory distributions (e.g., the normal and gamma families) are of restricted use for modeling multivariate spatial data. Recent research efforts have been therefore directed towards developing statistical models capable of describing the forms of asymmetry manifest in data sets. This, in particular, for the quite frequent case of phenomena whose empirical outcome behaves in a non-normal fashion, but still maintains some broad similarity with the multivariate normal distribution. Fruitful approaches were recognized in the use of flexible models, which include the normal

  7. A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

  8. Active Deformation of Etna Volcano Combing IFSAR and GPS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Paul

    1997-01-01

    The surface deformation of an active volcano is an important indicator of its eruptive state and its hazard potential. Mount Etna volcano in Sicily is a very active volcano with well documented eruption episodes.

  9. Comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    T G Sitharam; Arjun Sil

    2014-06-01

    Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G–R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0.2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping.

  10. When the hazard you're monitoring is the least of your troubles… the early days of a ubiquitous computing citizen science initiative on active volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Manen, S. M.; Richards, M.; Seaton, R.; Cameron, I.; Avard, G.; Martinez, M.

    2014-12-01

    Approximately 500 million people live in close proximity to one or more of the world's 1500 active volcanoes, and this number is set to increase through population growth. The corresponding human, social, environmental and economic costs of volcanic activity are likewise set to rise. Monitoring of active volcanoes is imperative to minimize the impact of volcanic activity. However, people's responses towards risk are not just determined by objective scientific information, but also by socio-cognitive factors such as hazard salience; risk perception; anxiety levels and sense of self efficacy. This project aims to take a citizen science approach to the monitoring of hazardous volcanic gases: a low-cost automated ubiquitous technology station will increase spatial and temporal data resolution while providing citizens access to relevant, accurate, timely and local information. This means a single data stream can be used to develop a better understanding of volcanic degassing and raise levels of hazard salience and increase feelings of self efficacy. A year and two prototypes into the project, this work presents the lessons learnt to date. Careful consideration was given to the station design in light of the harsh conditions it may encounter. Once the first prototypes were built, results from the initial lab tests were encouraging. Yet it wasn't until the stations were taken into the field that unexpected challenges were encountered: humans. During the very first field trial the prototype was vandalised, our second attempt was thwarted by customs and courier services. As a result, we've had to be flexible in our approach and adapt our strategy and station design in response to these events, which will eventually result in a better outcome. However, this case study serves as a reminder of the importance of considering factors beyond the equipment, data, interpretation and involvement of the public, when planning and implementing a citizen science initiative.

  11. Assessing possible hazards of reducing serum cholesterol.

    OpenAIRE

    Law, M. R.; Thompson, S. G.; Wald, N J

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To assess whether low serum cholesterol concentration increases mortality from any cause. DESIGN--Systematic review of published data on mortality from causes other than ischaemic heart disease derived from the 10 largest cohort studies, two international studies, and 28 randomised trials, supplemented by unpublished data on causes of death obtained when necessary. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Excess cause specific mortality associated with low or lowered serum cholesterol concentration....

  12. Probabilistic Storm Surge Hazard Assessment in the French West Indies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.; Arnaud, G.

    2016-12-01

    The French West Indies are prone to hurricanes formed over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. These events can have great consequences in terms of human, property, and economic losses. Storm surge hazard assessment is therefore required to provide guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers. By combining statistical-deterministic approaches and wave-current coupled models, we assessed storm surge hazard in Guadeloupe and Martinique islands. We present here the methodology, the results, as well as the on-going work on the impact of climate change in the framework of the FEDER-funded project C3AF.

  13. Discovery of an active shallow submarine silicic volcano in the northern Izu-Bonin Arc: volcanic structure and potential hazards of Oomurodashi Volcano (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tani, K.; Ishizuka, O.; Nichols, A. R.; Hirahara, Y.; Carey, R.; McIntosh, I. M.; Masaki, Y.; Kondo, R.; Miyairi, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Oomurodashi is a bathymetric high located ~20 km south of Izu-Oshima, an active volcanic island of the northern Izu-Bonin Arc. Using the 200 m bathymetric contour to define its summit dimensions, the diameter of Oomurodashi is ~20 km. Oomurodashi has been regarded as inactive, largely because it has a vast flat-topped summit at 100 - 150 meters below sea level (mbsl). During cruise NT07-15 of R/V Natsushima in 2007, we conducted a dive survey in a small crater, Oomuro Hole, located in the center of the flat-topped summit, using the remotely-operated vehicle (ROV) Hyper-Dolphin. The only heat flow measurement conducted on the floor of Oomuro Hole during the dive recorded an extremely high value of 4,200 mW/m2. Furthermore, ROV observations revealed that the southwestern wall of Oomuro Hole consists of fresh rhyolitic lavas. These findings suggest that Oomurodashi is in fact an active silicic submarine volcano. To confirm this hypothesis, we conducted detailed geological and geophysical ROV Hyper-Dolphin (cruise NT12-19). In addition to further ROV surveys, we carried out single-channel seismic (SCS) surveys across Oomurodashi in order to examine the shallow structures beneath the current edifice. The ROV surveys revealed numerous active hydrothermal vents on the floor of Oomuro Hole, at ~200 mbsl, with maximum water temperature measured at the hydrothermal vents reaching 194°C. We also conducted a much more detailed set of heat flow measurements across the floor of Oomuro Hole, detecting very high heat flows of up to 29,000 mW/m2. ROV observations revealed that the area surrounding Oomuro Hole on the flat-topped summit of Oomurodashi is covered by extensive fresh rhyolitic lava and pumice clasts with minimum biogenetic or manganese cover, suggesting recent eruption(s). These findings strongly indicate that Oomurodashi is an active silicic submarine volcano, with recent eruption(s) occurring from Oomuro Hole. Since the summit of Oomurodashi is in shallow water, it

  14. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Chiapas State (SE Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Lomelí, Anabel Georgina; García-Mayordomo, Julián

    2015-04-01

    The Chiapas State, in southeastern Mexico, is a very active seismic region due to the interaction of three tectonic plates: Northamerica, Cocos and Caribe. We present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically performed to evaluate seismic hazard in the Chiapas state. The PSHA was based on a composited seismic catalogue homogenized to Mw and was used a logic tree procedure for the consideration of different seismogenic source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The results were obtained in terms of peak ground acceleration as well as spectral accelerations. The earthquake catalogue was compiled from the International Seismological Center and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de México sources. Two different seismogenic source zones (SSZ) models were devised based on a revision of the tectonics of the region and the available geomorphological and geological maps. The SSZ were finally defined by the analysis of geophysical data, resulting two main different SSZ models. The Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SSZ were calculated from the declustered and homogenized catalogue, while the maximum expected earthquake was assessed from both the catalogue and geological criteria. Several worldwide and regional GMPEs for subduction and crustal zones were revised. For each SSZ model we considered four possible combinations of GMPEs. Finally, hazard was calculated in terms of PGA and SA for 500-, 1000-, and 2500-years return periods for each branch of the logic tree using the CRISIS2007 software. The final hazard maps represent the mean values obtained from the two seismogenic and four attenuation models considered in the logic tree. For the three return periods analyzed, the maps locate the most hazardous areas in the Chiapas Central Pacific Zone, the Pacific Coastal Plain and in the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zone; intermediate hazard values in the Chiapas Batholith Zone and in the Strike-Slip Faults Province. The hazard decreases

  15. Effects of Basement, Structure, and Stratigraphic Heritages on Volcano Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

    2006-06-01

    Effective natural hazard mitigation requires that the science surrounding geophysical events be thoroughly explored. With millions of people living on the flanks of volcanoes, understanding the parameters that effect volcanic behavior is critically important. In particular, basements can influence the occurrence of volcanic eruptions and landslides. This control by the substrate on volcano behavior usually has been considered questionable or less important than the conditions of the deep magma source. However, due to recent findings, this view is changing, specifically with regard to approaches in assessing volcanic hazards. The November 2005 AGU Chapman Conference ``Effects of Basement, Structure, and Stratigraphic Heritages on Volcano Behavior'' brought together geologists and geophysicists from North and South America, Europe, and Asia to discuss the results of their research on the reciprocal effects of the interaction between volcanos and their basements. The conference also highlighted the importance of holding Chapman conferences in developing countries such as the Philippines because many hazardous volcanos are situated in these countries. Apart from having natural field laboratories, these are the very same places that need to promote scientific discourse on volcano research, which can lead to more effective hazard mitigation programs.

  16. Glass Formulation and Fabrication Laboratory, Building 864, Hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banda, Z.; Wood, C.L.

    1995-08-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Glass Formulation and Fabrication Laboratory, Building 864. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distances at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the ERPG-2 threshold is 96 meters. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 100 meters.

  17. Sandia Lightning Simulation Facility Building 888. Hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banda, Z.; Barnett, B.

    1994-10-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Sandia Lightning Simulation Facility, Building 888. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 23 meters. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 65 meters.

  18. Simulation Technology Laboratory Building 970 hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, C.L.; Starr, M.D.

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Simulation Technology Laboratory, Building 970. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distances at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the ERPG-2 and Early Severe Health Effects thresholds are 78 and 46 meters, respectively. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 100 meters.

  19. Sandia Administrative Micrographics Facility, Building 802: Hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swihart, A.

    1994-12-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Sandia Administrative Micrographics Facility, Building 802. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 33 meters. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 75 meters.

  20. Hydrologic hazards in the lower Drift River basin associated with the 1989-1990 eruptions of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorava, J.M.; Meyer, D.F.

    1994-01-01

    The eruptions of Redoubt Volcano between December 14, 1989 and April 26, 1990 triggered flows of snow, ice, water, sediment, and debris that traveled down the Drift River as far as its mouth, about 40 km downstream. A major explosive eruption and dome collapse on January 2, 1990 produced the largest flow. The peak discharge of this flow at a location 22 km downstream from the volcano was estimated to be between 12,000 and 60,000 m3 per second. The estimated peak discharge of this event is more than 100 times larger than the 100-year meteorologically generated flood estimated for the Drift River. Pyroclastic flows and hot meltwater scoured the surface of Drift Glacier on the north flank of the volcano and were transformed into multipulsed, multiphased debris flows. Several other significant flows were generated by eruptions during this period: the two largest of these occurred on December 15, 1989 and February 15, 1990. Subsequent channel changes threatened the Drift River Oil Terminal built on an alluvial fan near the mouth of the Drift River. ?? 1994.

  1. Numerical inversion and reconstruction of the medial and distal tephra deposit of the 1982 El Chichon eruption (Chiapas, Mexico). Implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, R.; Costa, Dr; Folch, Dr; Macedonio, Dr; Capra, Dr

    2012-04-01

    In March 1982 the volcano El Chichon, Chiapas, southern Mexico, reawakened after a maximum dormant period of 500 to 600 years. Between March 29th and April 4th a series of ten explosive eruptions occurred, generating ash-fall, pyroclastic flows, surges and debris flows which destroyed, either totally or partially, nine villages within a devastated wide area surrounding the volcano. After the occurrence of the eruption, great deal of information has been gathered regarding the Holocene eruptive records of the El Chichon volcano, and the recent activity. Despite this, more quantitative ash fallout hazard assessments for potential Plinian activity at El Chichon volcano are still lacking. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main ash fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.

  2. Characteristics, extent and origin of hydrothermal alteration at Mount Rainier Volcano, Cascades Arc, USA: Implications for debris-flow hazards and mineral deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, D.A.; Sisson, T.W.; Breit, G.N.; Rye, R.O.; Vallance, J.W.

    2008-01-01

    flanks of the edifice, spatially associated with dikes that are localized in those sectors; other edifice flanks lack dikes and associated alteration. The Osceola collapse removed most of the altered core and upper east flank of the volcano, but intensely altered rocks remain on the uppermost west flank. Major conclusions of this study are that: (1) Hydrothermal-mineral assemblages and distributions at Mount Rainier can be understood in the framework of hydrothermal processes and environments developed from studies of ore deposits formed in analogous settings. (2) Frequent eruptions supplied sufficient hot magmatic fluid to alter the upper interior of the volcano hydrothermally, despite the consistently deep (??? 8??km) magma reservoir which may have precluded formation of economic mineral deposits within or at shallow depths beneath Mount Rainier. The absence of indicator equilibrium alteration-mineral assemblages in the debris flows that effectively expose the volcano to a depth of 1-1.5??km also suggests a low potential for significant high-sulfidation epithermal or porphyry-type mineral deposits at depth. (3) Despite the long and complex history of the volcano, intensely altered collapse-prone rocks were spatially restricted to near the volcano's conduit system and summit, and short distances onto the upper east and west flanks, due to the necessary supply of reactive components carried by ascending magmatic fluids. (4) Intensely altered rocks were removed from the summit, east flank, and edifice interior by the Osceola collapse, but remain on the upper west flank in the Sunset Amphitheater area and present a continuing collapse hazard. (5) Visually conspicuous rocks on the lower east and mid-to-lower

  3. Developing consistent scenarios to assess flood hazards in mountain streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, B; Comiti, F; Scherer, C; Fuchs, S

    2012-02-01

    The characterizing feature of extreme events in steep mountain streams is the multiplicity of possible tipping process patterns such as those involving sudden morphological changes due to intense local erosion, aggradation as well as clogging of critical flow sections due to wood accumulations. Resolving a substantial part of the uncertainties underlying these hydrological cause-effect chains is a major challenge for flood risk management. Our contribution is from a methodological perspective based on an expert-based methodology to unfold natural hazard process scenarios in mountain streams to retrace their probabilistic structure. As a first step we set up a convenient system representation for natural hazard process routing. In this setting, as a second step, we proceed deriving the possible and thus consistent natural hazard process patterns by means of Formative Scenario Analysis. In a last step, hazard assessment is refined by providing, through expert elicitation, the spatial probabilistic structure of individual scenario trajectories. As complement to the theory the applicability of the method is shown through embedded examples. To conclude we discuss the major advantages of the presented methodological approach for hazard assessment compared to traditional approaches, and with respect to the risk governance process.

  4. Environmental Hazards Assessment Program: Quarterly report, October--December 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-02-01

    This report describes activities and reports on progress for the second quarter (October 93 - December 93) of the second year of the grant to support the Environmental Hazards Assessment Program (EHAP). It reports progress against grant objectives and the Program Implementation Plan published at the end of the first year of the grant.

  5. GULLY-SPECIFIC DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xi-lin

    2003-01-01

    Techniques of gully-specific debris flow hazard assessment developed in four periods since the end of the1980s have been discussed in the present paper. The improvement for the empirical assessment method is the sectional-ized function transformation for the factor value, rather than the classified logical transformation. The theoretical equationof the gully-specific debris flow hazard is expressed as the definite integral of an exponential function and its numericalsolution is expressed by the Poisson Limit Equation. Current methods for assessment of debris flow hazard in China arestill valid and practical. The further work should be put on the study of the reliability (or unc ertainty) of the techniques.For the future, we should give a high priority to the relationship between debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occur-rence, make more developments of prediction model on debris flow magnitude, so as to finally reach the goal of assessingthe hazard of debris flow by theoretical model, and realize both actuality assessment and prediction appraisal of debris flow.

  6. Volcanic hazard and risk assessment in a multi-source volcanic area: the example of Napoli city (Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Alberico

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The possible emplacement of pyroclastic fall and flow products from Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio represents a threat for the population living in Napoli city. For this area, the volcanic hazard was always partially investigated to define the hazard related to the Campi Flegrei or to the Somma-Vesuvio activity one at a time. A new volcanic hazard and risk assessment, at the municipality scale, as a vital tool for decision-making about territorial management and future planning, is presented here.

    In order to assess the hazard related to the explosive activity of both sources, we integrated the results of field studies and numerical simulations, to evaluate the future possibility for Napoli to be hit by the products of an explosive eruption. This is defined for the Somma Vesuvio central volcano through the sum of "field frequency" based on the thickness and distribution of past deposits (Lirer et al., 2001, and for the Campi Flegrei volcanic field by suitably processing simulated events based on numerical modelling (Alberico et al., 2002; Costa et al., 2009. Aiming at volcanic risk assessment, the hazard areas were joined with the exposure map, considered for our purposes as the economical value of artefacts exposed to hazard. We defined four risk classes, and argued that the medium and low-very low risk classes have the largest extent in Napoli municipality, whereas only few zones located in the eastern part of the city and in the westernmost coastal area show a high risk, owing to the correspondence of high economical value and high hazard.

  7. Major Holocene block-and-ash fan at the western slope of ice-capped Pico de Orizaba volcano, México: Implications for future hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebe, Claus; Abrams, Michael; Sheridan, Michael F.

    1993-12-01

    A major block-and-ash fan extends more than 14 km westward from the summit of Pico de Orizaba volcano in the eastern part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal within the fan deposits yielded Holocene ages that range between 4040 ± 80 and 4660 ± 100 y.B.P. Stratigraphical, sedimentological, geochemical, and scanning electron microscope studies indicate that this fan originated within a relatively short time-span by multiple volcanic explosions at the summit crater. This activity produced a series of pyroclastic flows (mainly block-and-ash flows) and lahars which were channelized by a glacial cirque and connecting U-shaped valleys as they descended toward the base of the volcano. A recurrence of a similar eruption today would pose severe hazards to the population of more than 50,000 people, who live in a potentially dangerous zone. A detailed reconstruction of the sequence of events that led to the formation of the block-and-ash fan is presented to help mitigate the risk. Special attention is given to the effects of an ice-cap and the role of pre-existing glacial morphology on the distribution of products from such an eruption.

  8. Lunar Airborne Dust Toxicity Hazard Assessments (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, B. L.; McKay, D. S.; Taylor, L. A.; Wallace, W. T.; James, J.; Riofrio, L.; Gonzalez, C. P.

    2009-12-01

    The Lunar Airborne Dust Toxicity Assessment Group (LADTAG) is developing data to set the permissible limits for human exposure to lunar dust. This standard will guide the design of airlocks and ports for EVA, as well as the requirements for filtering and monitoring the atmosphere in habitable vehicles, rovers and other modules. LADTAG’s recommendation for permissible exposure limits will be delivered to the Constellation Program in late 2010. The current worst-case exposure limit of 0.05 mg/m3, estimated by LADTAG in 2006, reflects the concern that lunar dust may be as toxic as quartz dust. Freshly-ground quartz is known to be more toxic than un-ground quartz dust. Our research has shown that the surfaces of lunar soil grains can be more readily activated by grinding than quartz. Activation was measured by the amount of free radicals generated—activated simulants generate Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) i.e., production of hydroxyl free radicals. Of the various influences in the lunar environment, micrometeorite bombardment probably creates the most long-lasting reactivity on the surfaces of grains, although solar wind impingement and short-wavelength UV radiation also contribute. The comminution process creates fractured surfaces with unsatisfied bonds. When these grains are inhaled and carried into the lungs, they will react with lung surfactant and cells, potentially causing tissue damage and disease. Tests on lunar simulants have shown that dissolution and leaching of metals can occur when the grains are exposed to water—the primary component of lung fluid. However, simulants may behave differently than actual lunar soils. Rodent toxicity testing will be done using the respirable fraction of actual lunar soils (particles with physical size of less than 2.5 micrometers). We are currently separating the fine material from the coarser material that comprises >95% of the mass of each soil sample. Dry sieving is not practical in this size range, so a new system

  9. Application of the Coastal Hazard Wheel methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment and management in the state of Djibouti

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Rosendahl Appelquist

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment and management in a changing global climate on the state of Djibouti. The methodology termed the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW is developed for worldwide application and is based on a specially designed coastal classification system that incorporates the main static and dynamic parameters determining the characteristics of a coastal environment. The methodology provides information on the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding and can be used to support management decisions at local, regional and national level, in areas with limited access to geophysical data. The assessment for Djibouti applies a geographic information system (GIS to develop a range of national hazard maps along with relevant hazard statistics and is showcasing the procedure for applying the CHW methodology for national hazard assessments. The assessment shows that the coastline of Djibouti is characterized by extensive stretches with high or very high hazards of ecosystem disruption, mainly related to coral reefs and mangrove forests, while large sections along the coastlines of especially northern and southern Djibouti have high hazard levels for gradual inundation. The hazard of salt water intrusion is moderate along most of Djibouti’s coastline, although groundwater availability is considered to be very sensitive to human ground water extraction. High or very high erosion hazards are associated with Djibouti’s sedimentary plains, estuaries and river mouths, while very high flooding hazards are associated with the dry river mouths.

  10. Models of magma-aquifer interactions and their implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strehlow, Karen; Gottsmann, Jo; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús

    2014-05-01

    Interactions of magmatic and hydrological systems are manifold, complex and poorly understood. On the one side they bear a significant hazard potential in the form of phreatic explosions or by causing "dry" effusive eruptions to turn into explosive phreatomagmatic events. On the other side, they can equally serve to reduce volcanic risk, as resulting geophysical signals can help to forecast eruptions. It is therefore necessary to put efforts towards answering some outstanding questions regarding magma - aquifer interactions. Our research addresses these problems from two sides. Firstly, aquifers respond to magmatic activity and they can also become agents of unrest themselves. Therefore, monitoring the hydrology can provide a valuable window into subsurface processes in volcanic areas. Changes in temperature and strain conditions, seismic excitation or the injection of magmatic fluids into hydrothermal systems are just a few of the proposed processes induced by magmatic activity that affect the local hydrology. Interpretations of unrest signals as groundwater responses are described for many volcanoes and include changes in water table levels, changes in temperature or composition of hydrothermal waters and pore pressure-induced ground deformation. Volcano observatories can track these hydrological effects for example with potential field investigations or the monitoring of wells. To fully utilise these indicators as monitoring and forecasting tools, however, it is necessary to improve our understanding of the ongoing mechanisms. Our hydrogeophysical study uses finite element analysis to quantitatively test proposed mechanisms of aquifer excitation and the resultant geophysical signals. Secondly, volcanic activity is influenced by the presence of groundwater, including phreatomagmatic and phreatic eruptions. We focus here on phreatic explosions at hydrothermal systems. At least two of these impulsive events occurred in 2013: In August at the Icelandic volcano

  11. Harmonized Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe: Earthquake Geology Applied

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, J.; Danciu, L.; Giardini, D.; Share Consortium

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) aims to characterize the best available knowledge on seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results from PSHAs form the baseline for informed decision-making and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. SHARE is an EC-FP7 funded project to create a testable time-independent community-based hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE scientists are creating a model framework and infrastructure for a harmonized PSHA. The results will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 application and are envisioned to provide homogeneous input for state-of-the art seismic safety assessment for critical industry. Harmonizing hazard is pursued on the input data level and the model building procedure across borders and tectonic features of the European-Mediterranean region. An updated earthquake catalog, a harmonized database of seismogenic sources together with adjusted ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) form the bases for a borderless assessment. We require transparent and reproducible strategies to estimate parameter values and their uncertainties within the source model assessment and the contributions of the GMPEs. The SHARE model accounts for uncertainties via a logic tree. Epistemic uncertainties within the seismic source-model are represented by four source model options including area sources, fault sources and kernel-smoothing approaches, aleatory uncertainties for activity rates and maximum magnitudes. Epistemic uncertainties for predicted ground motions are considered by multiple GMPEs as a function of tectonic settings and treated as being correlated. For practical implementation, epistemic uncertainties in the source model (i.e. dip and strike angles) are treated as aleatory, and a mean seismicity model is considered. The final results contain the full distribution of ground motion variability. This contribution will feature preliminary

  12. An assessment of future volcanic hazard at Yucca Mountain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackett, W.R. [WRH Associates, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    1996-12-01

    Preliminary results and methods of a volcanic-hazards assessment for the proposed high-level nuclear-waste repository at Yucca Mountain are given. The most significant hazards are potential intersection of the repository by a basaltic dike, or structural disruption associated with dike intrusion. Two approaches are taken, which give similar results: homogeneous volcanic-source zones and spatial smoothing. The preliminary computed probabilities of intersection of the Yucca Mountain repository by a basaltic dike are in the range 10{sup -7} to 10{sup -8} per year.

  13. Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Based on Support Vector Machine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Lifeng; ZHANG Youshui

    2006-01-01

    Seven factors, including the maximum volume of once flow , occurrence frequency of debris flow , watershed area , main channel length , watershed relative height difference , valley incision density and the length ratio of sediment supplement are chosen as evaluation factors of debris flow hazard degree. Using support vector machine (SVM) theory, we selected 259 basic data of 37 debris flow channels in Yunnan Province as learning samples in this study. We create a debris flow hazard assessment model based on SVM. The model was validated though instance applications and showed encouraging results.

  14. Regional landslide hazard assessment based on Distance Evaluation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiacun LI; Yan QIN; Jing LI

    2008-01-01

    There are many factors influencing landslide occurrence. The key for landslide control is to confirm the regional landslide hazard factors. The Cameron Highlands of Malaysia was selected as the study area. By bivariate statistical analysis method with GIS software the authors analyzed the relationships among landslides and environmental factors such as lithology, geomorphy, elevation, road and land use. Distance Evaluation Model was developed with Landslide Density(LD). And the assessment of landslide hazard of Cameron Highlands was performed. The result shows that the model has higher prediction precision.

  15. Use of Archival Sources to Improve Water-Related Hazard Assessments at Volcán de Agua, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchison, A. A.; Cashman, K. V.; Rust, A.; Williams, C. A.

    2013-12-01

    This interdisciplinary study focuses on the use of archival sources from the 18th Century Spanish Empire to develop a greater understanding of mudflow trigger mechanisms at Volcán de Agua in Guatemala. Currently, hazard assessments of debris flows at Volcán de Agua are largely based on studies of analogous events, such as the mudflow at Casita Volcano in 1998 caused by excessive rainfall generated by Hurricane Mitch. A preliminary investigation of Spanish archival sources, however, indicates that a damaging mudflow from the volcano in 1717 may have been triggered by activity at the neighbouring Volcán de Fuego. A VEI 4 eruption of Fuego in late August 1717 was followed by 33 days of localized 'retumbos' and then a major local earthquake with accompanying mudflows from several 'bocas' on the southwest flank of Agua. Of particular importance for this study is an archival source from Archivos Generales de Centro América (AGCA) that consists of a series of letters, petitions and witness statements that were written and gathered following the catastrophic events of 1717. Their purpose was to argue for royal permission to relocate the capital city, which at the time was located on the lower flanks of Volcán de Agua. Within these documents there are accounts of steaming 'avenidas' of water with sulphurous smells, and quantitative descriptions that suggest fissure formation related to volcanic activity at Volcán de Fuego. Clear evidence for volcano-tectonic activity at the time, combined with the fact there is no mention of rainfall in the documents, suggest that outbursts of mud from Agua's south flank may have been caused by a volcanic perturbation of a hydrothermal system. This single example suggests that further analysis of archival documents will provide a more accurate and robust assessment of water related hazards at Volcán de Agua than currently exists.

  16. Catalogue of Icelandic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilyinskaya, Evgenia; Larsen, Gudrun; Vogfjörd, Kristin; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnus; Jonsson, Trausti; Oddsson, Björn; Reynisson, Vidir; Barsotti, Sara; Karlsdottir, Sigrun

    2015-04-01

    Volcanic activity in Iceland occurs on volcanic systems that usually comprise a central volcano and fissure swarm. Over 30 systems have been active during the Holocene. In the last 100 years, over 30 eruptions have occurred displaying very varied activity in terms of eruption styles, eruptive environments, eruptive products and their distribution. Although basaltic eruptions are most common, the majority of eruptions are explosive, not the least due to magma-water interaction in ice-covered volcanoes. Extensive research has taken place on Icelandic volcanism, and the results reported in scientific papers and other publications. In 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organisation funded a 3 year project to collate the current state of knowledge and create a comprehensive catalogue readily available to decision makers, stakeholders and the general public. The work on the Catalogue began in 2011, and was then further supported by the Icelandic government and the EU. The Catalogue forms a part of an integrated volcanic risk assessment project in Iceland (commenced in 2012), and the EU FP7 project FUTUREVOLC (2012-2016), establishing an Icelandic volcano Supersite. The Catalogue is a collaborative effort between the Icelandic Meteorological Office (the state volcano observatory), the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland, and the Icelandic Civil Protection, with contributions from a large number of specialists in Iceland and elsewhere. The catalogue is scheduled for opening in the first half of 2015 and once completed, it will be an official publication intended to serve as an accurate and up to date source of information about active volcanoes in Iceland and their characteristics. The Catalogue is an open web resource in English and is composed of individual chapters on each of the volcanic systems. The chapters include information on the geology and structure of the volcano; the eruption history, pattern and products; the known precursory signals

  17. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  18. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secanell, R.; Bertil, D.; Martin, C.; Goula, X.; Susagna, T.; Tapia, M.; Dominique, P.; Carbon, D.; Fleta, J.

    2008-07-01

    A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries. Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists. A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra.

  19. Tsunami hazard assessment along the U. S. East Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tajalli Bakhsh, T.; Grilli, S. T.; Harris, J. C.; Kirby, J. T.; Shi, F.; Tehranirad, B.

    2012-12-01

    In 2005, the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) was tasked by Congress to develop tsunami inundation maps for the entire US coastline. This work provides an overview of the modeling work related to the development inundation maps along the US east coast. In this region the paucity of historical tsunami records and lack of paleotsunami observations yields a large uncertainty on the source and magnitude of potential extreme tsunami events, and their related coastal hazard. In the Atlantic Ocean basin significant tsunami hazard may result from far-field earthquakes, such as a repeat of the M8.9 Lisbon 1755 event in the Azores convergence zone, or a hypothetical extreme M9 earthquake in the Puerto Rico Trench (PRT). Additionally, it is believed that a repeat of one of the large historical collapses, identified at the toe of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma (Canary Islands; i.e., with a maximum volume of 450 km3), could pose a major tsunami hazard to the entire US east coast. Finally, in the near-field, large submarine mass failure (SMF) scars have been mapped by USGS, particularly North of the Carolinas (e.g., Currituck), which are believed to have caused past tsunamis. Large SMFs can be triggered by moderate seismicity (M7 or so), such as can occur on the east coast. In fact, one of the few historical tsunamis that significantly affected this region was caused by the 1929 Grand Bank underwater slide, which was triggered by a M7.2 earthquake. In this work we identify and parameterize all potential tsunami sources affecting the US east coast, and perform simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal impact in a series of increasingly resolved nested grids. Following this methodology, tsunami inundation maps are currently being developed for a few of the most affected areas. In simulations, we use a robust and well-validated Fully Nonlinear Boussinesq long-wave model (FUNWAVE-TVD), on Cartesian or spherical grids. Coseismic tsunami

  20. Assessment of Hazardous Chemicals Risk in Fur Industry in Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birutė Vaitelytė

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The article describes the research on the possibilities of hazardous chemicals replacement with less hazardous substances. This issue has become of special importance to industrial companies after the adoption of the REACH Regulation. The article examines fur industry and traditional chemicals used in it, namely, sodium dichromate, formaldehyde, and naphthalene. Because of their properties these chemicals are pretending to be included in the REACH Regulation lists of the authorised chemicals. The risks of quasi-materials to the workplaces and the environment have been studied. This research has also looked for the alternatives to hazardous chemicals and has conducted their risk assessment. The analyzed chemicals have been compared with their alternatives with a view of disclosing specific risk reduction.

  1. ASSESSMENT OF RUNWAY ACCIDENT HAZARDS IN NIGERIA AVIATION SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinyemi Olasunkanmi Oriola

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Aviation crashes all over the world have recently been on the high rise, stemming from negligence, mechanical faults, weather, ground control errors, pilot errors, taxing and maintenance crew errors as probable reasons for such accidents. This study models the probabilistic risk assessment of runway accident hazards in Nigeria aviation sector. Six categories of runway accident hazards with their corresponding basic events were identified and modeled using fault tree analysis method of probabilistic risk assessment. The six categories of runway accident hazards are runway surface conditions, weather conditions, collision risk, aircraft system failure, approach/takeoff procedures and human factors. The Fault Tree developed is a system of OR-gates and the weights for each hazard were derived through a domain/expert opinion. The estimated probability of occurrence of runway accident which is the top event of the Fault Tree model is 0.2624. Fault Tree Analysis; thus, identifies the most likely root causes of runway accident through importance measures. The results of the analysis show close relationship of runway accidents in Nigeria aviation sector with aircraft system failure, approach/takeoff procedures, human factor, weather conditions and collision risk.

  2. Source processes for the probabilistic assessment of tsunami hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Lynett, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    The importance of tsunami hazard assessment has increased in recent years as a result of catastrophic consequences from events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis. In particular, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) methods have been emphasized to include all possible ways a tsunami could be generated. Owing to the scarcity of tsunami observations, a computational approach is used to define the hazard. This approach includes all relevant sources that may cause a tsunami to impact a site and all quantifiable uncertainty. Although only earthquakes were initially considered for PTHA, recent efforts have also attempted to include landslide tsunami sources. Including these sources into PTHA is considerably more difficult because of a general lack of information on relating landslide area and volume to mean return period. The large variety of failure types and rheologies associated with submarine landslides translates to considerable uncertainty in determining the efficiency of tsunami generation. Resolution of these and several other outstanding problems are described that will further advance PTHA methodologies leading to a more accurate understanding of tsunami hazard.

  3. Combining heuristic and statistical techniques in landslide hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda, Jose; Schwendtner, Barbara; Quan, Byron; Nadim, Farrokh; Diaz, Manuel; Molina, Giovanni

    2014-05-01

    As a contribution to the Global Assessment Report 2013 - GAR2013, coordinated by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction - UNISDR, a drill-down exercise for landslide hazard assessment was carried out by entering the results of both heuristic and statistical techniques into a new but simple combination rule. The data available for this evaluation included landslide inventories, both historical and event-based. In addition to the application of a heuristic method used in the previous editions of GAR, the availability of inventories motivated the use of statistical methods. The heuristic technique is largely based on the Mora & Vahrson method, which estimates hazard as the product of susceptibility and triggering factors, where classes are weighted based on expert judgment and experience. Two statistical methods were also applied: the landslide index method, which estimates weights of the classes for the susceptibility and triggering factors based on the evidence provided by the density of landslides in each class of the factors; and the weights of evidence method, which extends the previous technique to include both positive and negative evidence of landslide occurrence in the estimation of weights for the classes. One key aspect during the hazard evaluation was the decision on the methodology to be chosen for the final assessment. Instead of opting for a single methodology, it was decided to combine the results of the three implemented techniques using a combination rule based on a normalization of the results of each method. The hazard evaluation was performed for both earthquake- and rainfall-induced landslides. The country chosen for the drill-down exercise was El Salvador. The results indicate that highest hazard levels are concentrated along the central volcanic chain and at the centre of the northern mountains.

  4. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

    2004-12-01

    A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr

  5. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  6. DOWNFLOW code and LIDAR technology for lava flow analysis and hazard assessment at Mount Etna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Fornaciai

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of a lava-flow simulation (DOWNFLOW probabilistic code and airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR technology are combined to analyze the emplacement of compound lava flow fields at Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy. The goal was to assess the hazard posed by lava flows. The LIDAR-derived time series acquired during the 2006 Mount Etna eruption records the changing topography of an active lava-flow field. These short-time-interval, high-resolution topographic surveys provide a detailed quantitative picture of the topographic changes. The results highlight how the flow field evolves as a number of narrow (5-15 m wide disjointed flow units that are fed simultaneously by uneven lava pulses that advance within formed channels. These flow units have widely ranging advance velocities (3-90 m/h. Overflows, bifurcations and braiding are also clearly displayed. In such a complex scenario, the suitability of deterministic codes for lava-flow simulation can be hampered by the fundamental difficulty of measuring the flow parameters (e.g. the lava discharge rate, or the lava viscosity of a single flow unit. However, the DOWNFLOW probabilistic code approaches this point statistically and needs no direct knowledge of flow parameters. DOWNFLOW intrinsically accounts for complexities and perturbations of lava flows by randomly varying the pre-eruption topography. This DOWNFLOW code is systematically applied here over Mount Etna, to derive a lava-flow hazard map based on: (i the topography of the volcano; (ii the probability density function for vent opening; and (iii a law for the expected lava-flow length for all of the computational vents considered. Changes in the hazard due to the recent morphological evolution of Mount Etna have also been addressed.

  7. Damage-consistent hazard assessment - the revival of intensities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klügel, Jens-Uwe

    2016-04-01

    Proposed key-note speech (Introduction of session). Current civil engineering standards for residential buildings in many countries are based on (frequently probabilistic) seismic hazard assessments using ground motion parameters like peak ground accelerations or pseudo displacements as hazard parameters. This approach has its roots in the still wide spread force-based design of structures using simplified methods like linear response spectra in combination with equivalent static forces procedures for the design of structures. In the engineering practice this has led to practical problems because it's not economic to design structures against the maximum forces of earthquakes. Furthermore, a completely linear-elastic response of structures is seldom required. Different types of reduction factors (performance-dependent response factors) considering for example overstrength, structural redundancy and structural ductility have been developed in different countries for compensating the use of simplified and conservative design methods. This has the practical consequence that the methods used in engineering as well as the output results of hazard assessment studies are poorly related to the physics of damaging. Reliable predictions for the response of structures under earthquake loading using such simplified design methods are not feasible. In dependence of the type of structures damage may be controlled by hazard parameters that are different from ground motion accelerations. Furthermore, a realistic risk assessment has to be based on reliable predictions of damage. This is crucial for effective decision-making. This opens the space for a return to the use of intensities as the key output parameter of seismic hazard assessment. Site intensities (e.g. EMS-98) are very well correlated to the damage of structures. They can easily be converted into the required set of engineering parameters or even directly into earthquake time-histories suitable for structural analysis

  8. Characteristics, extent and origin of hydrothermal alteration at Mount Rainier Volcano, Cascades Arc, USA: Implications for debris-flow hazards and mineral deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, David A.; Sisson, Thomas W.; Breit, George N.; Rye, Robert O.; Vallance, James W.

    2008-08-01

    . The edifice was capped by a steam-heated alteration zone, most of which resulted from condensation of fumarolic vapor and oxidation of H 2S in the unsaturated zone above the water table. Weakly developed smectite-pyrite alteration extended into the west and east flanks of the edifice, spatially associated with dikes that are localized in those sectors; other edifice flanks lack dikes and associated alteration. The Osceola collapse removed most of the altered core and upper east flank of the volcano, but intensely altered rocks remain on the uppermost west flank. Major conclusions of this study are that: (1) Hydrothermal-mineral assemblages and distributions at Mount Rainier can be understood in the framework of hydrothermal processes and environments developed from studies of ore deposits formed in analogous settings. (2) Frequent eruptions supplied sufficient hot magmatic fluid to alter the upper interior of the volcano hydrothermally, despite the consistently deep (≥ 8 km) magma reservoir which may have precluded formation of economic mineral deposits within or at shallow depths beneath Mount Rainier. The absence of indicator equilibrium alteration-mineral assemblages in the debris flows that effectively expose the volcano to a depth of 1-1.5 km also suggests a low potential for significant high-sulfidation epithermal or porphyry-type mineral deposits at depth. (3) Despite the long and complex history of the volcano, intensely altered collapse-prone rocks were spatially restricted to near the volcano's conduit system and summit, and short distances onto the upper east and west flanks, due to the necessary supply of reactive components carried by ascending magmatic fluids. (4) Intensely altered rocks were removed from the summit, east flank, and edifice interior by the Osceola collapse, but remain on the upper west flank in the Sunset Amphitheater area and present a continuing collapse hazard. (5) Visually conspicuous rocks on the lower east and mid-to-lower west

  9. Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

    2015-04-01

    Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

  10. Environmental Hazards Assessment Program. Quarterly report, July--September 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-10-31

    This report describes activities and reports on progress for the first quarter (July--September) of the fourth year of the grant to support the Environmental Hazards Assessment Program (EHAP) at the Medical University of South Carolina. It reports progress against the grant objectives and the Program Implementation Plan published at the end of the first year of the grant. The objectives of EHAP stated in the proposal to DOE are to: (1) develop a holistic, national basis for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication that recognizes the direct impact of environmental hazards on the health and well-being of all; (2) develop a pool of talented scientists and experts in cleanup activities, especially in human health aspects; and (3) identify needs and develop programs addressing the critical shortage of well-educated, highly-skilled technical and scientific personnel to address the health-oriented aspects of environmental restoration and waste management.

  11. Determination of lead and radioactivity in cosmetics products: Hazard assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Medhat Moustafa E.; Singh Vishwanath P.; Shirmardi Seyed P.

    2015-01-01

    In the proposed work, an investigation on hazard assessment by lead element and natural radioactivity in cosmetic samples collected from various countries is presented. These samples were face powder, eyebrow paint and henna. The lead element in cosmetic samples was determined using particle-induced X-ray emission. Maximum natural radioactivity concentrations of 226Ra and 40K were found in khol and make-up cosmetic samples, respectively. The qualitative ana...

  12. Application of remote sensed precipitation for landslide hazard assessment models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, D. B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Adler, R. F.; Kumar, S.; Harrison, K.

    2010-12-01

    The increasing availability of remotely sensed land surface and precipitation information provides new opportunities to improve upon existing landslide hazard assessment methods. This research considers how satellite precipitation information can be applied in two types of landslide hazard assessment frameworks: a global, landslide forecasting framework and a deterministic slope-stability model. Examination of both landslide hazard frameworks points to the need for higher resolution spatial and temporal precipitation inputs to better identify small-scale precipitation forcings that contribute to significant landslide triggering. This research considers how satellite precipitation information may be downscaled to account for local orographic impacts and better resolve peak intensities. Precipitation downscaling is employed in both models to better approximate local rainfall distribution, antecedent conditions, and intensities. Future missions, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission will provide more frequent and extensive estimates of precipitation at the global scale and have the potential to significantly advance landslide hazard assessment tools. The first landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. Results of the algorithm evaluation indicate that considering higher resolution susceptibility information is a key factor in better resolving potentially hazardous areas. However, success in resolving when landslide activity is probable is closely linked to appropriate characterization of the empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. We test a variety of rainfall thresholds to evaluate algorithmic performance accuracy and determine the optimal set of conditions that

  13. Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

    2016-04-01

    The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall

  14. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  15. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Italy using kernel estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuccolo, Elisa; Corigliano, Mirko; Lai, Carlo G.

    2013-07-01

    A representation of seismic hazard is proposed for Italy based on the zone-free approach developed by Woo (BSSA 86(2):353-362, 1996a), which is based on a kernel estimation method governed by concepts of fractal geometry and self-organized seismicity, not requiring the definition of seismogenic zoning. The purpose is to assess the influence of seismogenic zoning on the results obtained for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of Italy using the standard Cornell's method. The hazard has been estimated for outcropping rock site conditions in terms of maps and uniform hazard spectra for a selected site, with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Both spectral acceleration and spectral displacement have been considered as ground motion parameters. Differences in the results of PSHA between the two methods are compared and discussed. The analysis shows that, in areas such as Italy, characterized by a reliable earthquake catalog and in which faults are generally not easily identifiable, a zone-free approach can be considered a valuable tool to address epistemic uncertainty within a logic tree framework.

  16. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia

  17. Geospatial Data Integration for Assessing Landslide Hazard on Engineered Slopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, P. E.; Mills, J. P.; Barr, S. L.; Birkinshaw, S. J.

    2012-07-01

    Road and rail networks are essential components of national infrastructures, underpinning the economy, and facilitating the mobility of goods and the human workforce. Earthwork slopes such as cuttings and embankments are primary components, and their reliability is of fundamental importance. However, instability and failure can occur, through processes such as landslides. Monitoring the condition of earthworks is a costly and continuous process for network operators, and currently, geospatial data is largely underutilised. The research presented here addresses this by combining airborne laser scanning and multispectral aerial imagery to develop a methodology for assessing landslide hazard. This is based on the extraction of key slope stability variables from the remotely sensed data. The methodology is implemented through numerical modelling, which is parameterised with the slope stability information, simulated climate conditions, and geotechnical properties. This allows determination of slope stability (expressed through the factor of safety) for a range of simulated scenarios. Regression analysis is then performed in order to develop a functional model relating slope stability to the input variables. The remotely sensed raster datasets are robustly re-sampled to two-dimensional cross-sections to facilitate meaningful interpretation of slope behaviour and mapping of landslide hazard. Results are stored in a geodatabase for spatial analysis within a GIS environment. For a test site located in England, UK, results have shown the utility of the approach in deriving practical hazard assessment information. Outcomes were compared to the network operator's hazard grading data, and show general agreement. The utility of the slope information was also assessed with respect to auto-population of slope geometry, and found to deliver significant improvements over the network operator's existing field-based approaches.

  18. Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions

  19. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  20. Geological and geotechnical characterization of the debris avalanche and pyroclastic deposits of Cotopaxi Volcano (Ecuador). A contribute to instability-related hazard studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezzoli, L.; Apuani, T.; Corazzato, C.; Uttini, A.

    2017-02-01

    The huge volcanic debris avalanche occurred at 4.5 ka is a major event in the evolution of the Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador. The present volcanic hazard in the Cotopaxi region is related to lahars generated by volcanic eruptions and concurrent ice melting. This paper presents the geological and geotechnical field and laboratory characterization of the 4.5 ka Cotopaxi debris avalanche deposit and of the younger unconsolidated pyroclastic deposits, representing the probable source of future shallow landslides. The debris avalanche formed a deposit with a well-developed hummocky topography, and climbed a difference in height of about 260 m along the slopes of the adjacent Sincholagua volcano. The debris avalanche deposit includes four lithofacies (megablock, block, mixed, and sheared facies) that represent different flow regimes and degrees of substratum involvement. The facies distribution suggests that, in the proximal area, the debris avalanche slid predominantly confined to the valleys along the N and NE flank of the volcanic cone, emplacing a stack of megablocks. When the flow reached the break in slope at the base of the edifice, it became unconfined and spread laterally over most of the area of the Rio Pita valley. A dynamic block fragmentation and dilation occurred during the debris avalanche transport, emplacing the block facies. The incorporation of the older Chalupas Ignimbrite is responsible for the mixed facies and the sheared facies. Geotechnical results include a full-range grain size characterization, which enabled to make broader considerations on possible variability among the sampled facies. Consolidated drained triaxial compression tests, carried out on the fine fraction Failure surfaces are always well developed, indicating that the poorly consolidated pyroclastic cover could undergo failure leading to the formation of a gravity driven instability phenomena, like granular or debris flows, which are mainly controlled by the fine fraction. This work

  1. Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R.L.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; Savage, W.Z.; Schulz, W.H.; Brien, D.L.; Chleborad, A.F.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.

  2. Assessment of Nearshore Hazard due to Tsunami-Induced Currents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, P. J.; Ayca, A.; Borrero, J. C.; Eskijian, M.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.

    2014-12-01

    The California Tsunami Program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase tsunami hazard preparedness and mitigation in maritime communities (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. The initial goals of the study are to (1) evaluate the effectiveness and sensitivity of existing numerical models for assessing maritime tsunami hazards, (2) find a relationship between current speeds and expected damage levels, (3) evaluate California ports and harbors in terms of tsunami induced hazards by identifying regions that are prone to higher current speeds and damage and to identify regions of relatively lower impact that may be used for evacuation of maritime assets, and (4) determine 'safe depths' for evacuation of vessels from ports and harbors during a tsunami event. We will present details of a new initiative to evaluate the future likelihood of failure for different structural components of a harbor, leading to the identification of high priority areas for mitigation. This presentation will focus on the results from California ports and harbors across the State, and will include feedback we have received from discussions with local harbor masters and port authorities. To help promote accurate and consistent products, the authors are also working through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program to organize a tsunami current model benchmark workshop.

  3. Geological and InSAR surveys highlight tectonic hazard in densely inhabited areas on the lower southeastern flank of Mount Etna volcano, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, Marco; Sansosti, Eugenio; Casu, Francesco; Leonardi, Anna; Pepe, Antonio; Pepe, Susi; Solaro, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    A constant seaward sliding mechanism is affecting the eastern to southern flanks of Mt. Etna volcano, involving an overall on-shore area of >700 km2.The margins of this unstable area are marked by the Pernicana Fault System to the north and the Ragalna Fault System to the south-west. The unstable area is divided into several blocks characterized by different kinematics and delimited by active faults crossing, in several cases, urban areas, towns and villages. One of these structural discontinuities is the Trecastagni-S.G.La Punta-Aci Trezza fault system, a tectonic structure extending from the volcano summit (where it trends NNW-SSE), to the lower southeastern flank (trending NW-SE) and reaching the coast at the Aci Trezza village (WNW-ESE and E-W). The last segment of this tectonic system crosses several important roads and man-made structures within Aci Trezza, and continues for a few kilometers off-shore crossing the Faraglioni stacks-Lachea island. Recently, analysis of long-period InSAR data has added some details to the sliding motion on the lower south-eastern flank of the volcano, particularly on the S.G.La Punta-Aci Trezza fault segments. Field geological and instrumental data confirmed the slip activity and the extension of the tectonically disturbed areas, highlighting a transition zone between the two main fault segments. On the other hand, some of the features detected by InSAR are not clearly visible in the field and were never detected before by classical geological surveys. These results are of crucial importance in terms of hazard related to tectonic movements, especially in densely inhabited zones such as the south-eastern flank of Etna, where more than half a million people live. The structural details obtained through these kinds of studies may guide future land use planning appropriately also within towns and villages, where aseismic and seismogenic very active faults are evident at the surfaces.

  4. Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards

  5. Development and Assessment of an Automated High-Resolution InSAR Volcano-Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Tanvir A.; Minet, Christian; Fritz, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Monitoring volcanoes and volcanic areas using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data is a well-established method of risk assessment. However, acquisition planning, ordering, and downloading are time and work intensive, but inevitable process. It has to be done not only once before the actual processing, but for continuous monitoring, it poses a continuous and expensive effort. Therefore an automatic acquisition and processing system is developed at DLR, which allows pseudo-continuous processing of data sequences over the test site and also be applicable to any other optional test-site extension, including the increase of data volume. This system reduces the load of manual work necessary to perform interferometric stacking and quickly gain first information on evolving geophysical processes at the, but not limited to the Italian supersites.

  6. Alaska volcanoes guidebook for teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adleman, Jennifer N.

    2011-01-01

    Alaska’s volcanoes, like its abundant glaciers, charismatic wildlife, and wild expanses inspire and ignite scientific curiosity and generate an ever-growing source of questions for students in Alaska and throughout the world. Alaska is home to more than 140 volcanoes, which have been active over the last 2 million years. About 90 of these volcanoes have been active within the last 10,000 years and more than 50 of these have been active since about 1700. The volcanoes in Alaska make up well over three-quarters of volcanoes in the United States that have erupted in the last 200 years. In fact, Alaska’s volcanoes erupt so frequently that it is almost guaranteed that an Alaskan will experience a volcanic eruption in his or her lifetime, and it is likely they will experience more than one. It is hard to imagine a better place for students to explore active volcanism and to understand volcanic hazards, phenomena, and global impacts. Previously developed teachers’ guidebooks with an emphasis on the volcanoes in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (Mattox, 1994) and Mount Rainier National Park in the Cascade Range (Driedger and others, 2005) provide place-based resources and activities for use in other volcanic regions in the United States. Along the lines of this tradition, this guidebook serves to provide locally relevant and useful resources and activities for the exploration of numerous and truly unique volcanic landscapes in Alaska. This guidebook provides supplemental teaching materials to be used by Alaskan students who will be inspired to become educated and prepared for inevitable future volcanic activity in Alaska. The lessons and activities in this guidebook are meant to supplement and enhance existing science content already being taught in grade levels 6–12. Correlations with Alaska State Science Standards and Grade Level Expectations adopted by the Alaska State Department of Education and Early Development (2006) for grades six through eleven are listed at

  7. Hazard assessment of rainfall-induced landsliding in mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcantara-Ayala, I.

    2004-07-01

    Rainfall-induced landsliding represents a major hazard in Mexico. About 200 municipalities in the states of Puebla, Veracruz and Hidalgo were affected by flooding and mass movement processes that resulted from a tropical depression from the Atlantic Ocean in October 1999. Hundreds of slope failures were triggered by intense precipitation, which in some localities reached 420 mm during a 24-h period. According to official information, 263 people died and 1 475 654 inhabitants were affected by flooding and landsliding. Rainfall event and cycle coefficient defined and the ratios between event and antecedent rainfalls, respectively, and the mean annual rainfall are summed to give a total coefficient. For landslide-triggering rainfalls in the Sierra Norte, values for the total coefficient of 0.8 and 0.4 for beginning and end of the wet season, respectively, appear to be important. In addition, a hazard assessment was carried out through the development of a landslide susceptibility indicator. This was elaborated by using aerial photographs, integrating field observations and the coupling of slope instability analysis within a digital elevation model framework. Field validation indicated that this approach provides a good representation of shallow translational failures; 81% of the observed landslides were satisfactorily predicted as potential unstable zones. Results suggested that this type of DEM-based hazard assessment can be extremely valuable not only after, but also before any landslide-related event, so that disaster preparedness and planning could be adequately structured.

  8. 78 FR 44625 - Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-24

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment.... 2900--NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire,'' in...

  9. Risk assessment of biological hazards in the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hugas, Marta; Tsigarida, Eirini; Robinson, Tobin; Calistri, Paolo

    2007-11-30

    International, community and national food safety law and any subsequent decision-making practices aim to be based on risk analysis--a process consisting of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. With the appointment of the European Food Safety Authority as an independent scientific point of reference in risk assessment, there is a clear functional separation between risk assessment and risk management in the European Union food safety context. When a food safety question on microbiological hazards is to be answered--which is under the remit of the EFSA's Scientific Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ)--extensive dialogue and interactions covering the clarity of the question, the acceptability of the deadline and the availability of all necessary information take place with both the risk managers who ask the question and the stakeholders. During the first mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel (2003-2006), the scientific opinions were mainly based on qualitative and in some cases semi-quantitative microbiological risk assessment. In the second mandate of the BIOHAZ Panel, and as a first step towards developing a European approach on Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), EFSA is preparing to carry out a QMRA on Salmonella in pigs, at European level through a consortium of European institutes.

  10. National Environmental Policy Act Hazards Assessment for the TREAT Alternative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boyd D. Christensen; Annette L. Schafer

    2013-11-01

    This document provides an assessment of hazards as required by the National Environmental Policy Act for the alternative of restarting the reactor at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility by the Resumption of Transient Testing Program. Potential hazards have been identified and screening level calculations have been conducted to provide estimates of unmitigated dose consequences that could be incurred through this alternative. Consequences considered include those related to use of the TREAT Reactor, experiment assembly handling, and combined events involving both the reactor and experiments. In addition, potential safety structures, systems, and components for processes associated with operating TREAT and onsite handling of nuclear fuels and experiments are listed. If this alternative is selected, a safety basis will be prepared in accordance with 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” Subpart B, “Safety Basis Requirements.”

  11. National Environmental Policy Act Hazards Assessment for the TREAT Alternative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boyd D. Christensen; Annette L. Schafer

    2014-02-01

    This document provides an assessment of hazards as required by the National Environmental Policy Act for the alternative of restarting the reactor at the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility by the Resumption of Transient Testing Program. Potential hazards have been identified and screening level calculations have been conducted to provide estimates of unmitigated dose consequences that could be incurred through this alternative. Consequences considered include those related to use of the TREAT Reactor, experiment assembly handling, and combined events involving both the reactor and experiments. In addition, potential safety structures, systems, and components for processes associated with operating TREAT and onsite handling of nuclear fuels and experiments are listed. If this alternative is selected, a safety basis will be prepared in accordance with 10 CFR 830, “Nuclear Safety Management,” Subpart B, “Safety Basis Requirements.”

  12. Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bela, J.

    2015-12-01

    The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the

  13. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for northern Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Kosuwan, S.; Nguyen, M. L.; Shi, X.; Sieh, K.

    2016-12-01

    We assess seismic hazard for northern Southeast Asia through constructing an earthquake and fault database, conducting a series of ground-shaking scenarios and proposing regional seismic hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters from global and local seismic catalogues, including the ISC, ISC-GEM, the global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, Seismological Bureau, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. To harmonize the earthquake parameters from various catalogue sources, we remove duplicate events and unify magnitudes into the same scale. Our active fault database include active fault data from previous studies, e.g. the active fault parameters determined by Wang et al. (2014), Department of Mineral Resources, Thailand, and Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam. Based on the parameters from analysis of the databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and time elapsed of last events), we determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the felt intensities of historical earthquakes to the modelled ground motions using ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). By incorporating the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions, we utilized site effect and assessed probabilistic seismic hazard. The highest seismic hazard is in the region close to the Sagaing Fault, which cuts through some major cities in central Myanmar. The northern segment of Sunda megathrust, which could potentially cause M8-class earthquake, brings significant hazard along the Western Coast of Myanmar and eastern Bangladesh. Besides, we conclude a notable hazard level in northern Vietnam and the boundary between Myanmar, Thailand and Laos, due to a series of strike-slip faults, which could

  14. Multi-hazard risk assessment of the Republic of Mauritius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Galli, Alberto; Amadio, Mattia; Teatini, Chiara

    2013-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a small island developing state (SIDS), part of the Mascarene Islands in West Indian Ocean, comprised by Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St. Brandon islands and several islets. ROM is exposed to many natural hazards notably cyclones, tsunamis, torrential precipitation, landslides, and droughts; and highly vulnerable sea level rise (SLR) driven by human induced climate change. The multihazard risk assessment presented in this paper is aimed at identifying the areas prone to flood, inundation and landslide hazard, and inform the development of strategy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Climate risk analysis - a central component of the analysis - is one of the first comprehensive climate modelling studies conducted for the country. Climate change may lift the temperature by 1-2 degree Celsius by 2060-2070, and increase sizably the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. According to the IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4), the expected Sea Level Rise (SLR) ranges between 16 and 49 cm. Individually or in combination, the inland flood, coastal inundation and landslide hazards affect large proportion of the country. Sea level rise and the changes in precipitation regimes will amplified existing vulnerabilities and create new ones. The paper outlines an Action plan for Disaster Risk Reduction that takes into account the likely effects of climate change. The Action Plan calls on the government to establish a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as recommended by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. It consists of nine recommendations which, if put in practice, will significantly reduce the annual damage to natural hazard and produce additional (ancillary) benefits in economic, social and environmental terms.

  15. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard assessment for Sultanate of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Hussain, I. W.; Deif, A.; El-Hady, S.; Toksoz, M. N.; Al-Jabri, K.; Al-Hashmi, S.; Al-Toubi, K. I.; Al-Shijbi, Y.; Al-Saifi, M.

    2010-12-01

    Seismic hazard assessment for Oman is conducted utilizing probabilistic approach. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed within a logic tree framework. An earthquake catalogue for Oman was compiled and declustered to include only independent earthquakes. The declustered catalogue was used to define seismotectonic source model with 26 source zones that characterize earthquakes in the tectonic environments in and around Oman. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones are determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the seismogenic zones of Makran subduction zone which were modeled using the characteristic distribution. The maximum earthquakes on known faults were determined geologically and the remaining zones were determined statistically from the compiled catalogue. Horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships that were developed from seismic data obtained from the shallow active environment, stable craton environment, and from subduction earthquakes. In this analysis, we have used alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation models and weighted them to account for the epistemic uncertainty. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of 5% damped seismic hazard maps at rock sites for 72, 475, and 2475 year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0.0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0 sec. Mean and 84th percentile acceleration contour maps were represented. The results also were displayed as uniform hazard spectra for rock sites in the cities of Khasab, Diba, Sohar, Muscat, Nizwa, Sur, and Salalah in Oman and the cities of Abu Dhabi and Dubai in UAE. The PGA across Oman ranges from 20 cm/sec2 in the Mid-West and 115 cm/sec2 at the northern part for 475 years return period and between 40 cm/sec2 and 180 cm/sec2 for 2475 years

  16. Global Volcano Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  17. A methodology for fire risk and hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joglar-Billoch, Francisco J.

    2000-10-01

    The implementation of performance-based codes and risk-informed regulation faces a number of barriers in the field of fire protection. In this dissertation some of those barriers will be discussed with the purpose of presenting computational methods designed to reduce the impact of the barriers in the decision-making process. The computational methods are presented in the framework of a comprehensive probabilistic fire risk assessment methodology. In the probabilistic fire risk assessment methodology, the impact of a fire in a specific location is estimated in terms of a number of indices based on the time of hazard development versus the time to hazard mitigation. Comparing the risk index estimation of each enclosure in a building or plant, a ranking of locations can be generated and different fire protection alternatives can be evaluated. The fire risk assessment approach is based on probabilistic fire models developed from traditional deterministic calculations. In order to develop the probabilistic tools, a complete fire two-zone model, called FireMD, the traditional DETACT model, and a target heating model are described. Next, the concepts of model and parameter uncertainty are introduced in the fire analysis in order to estimate probability distributions of hazardous conditions generated by a fire accident. Specifically, a probabilistic two-zone fire model, a probabilistic detector activation model, a probabilistic suppression model, and a probabilistic target-heating model form the foundation of the proposed fire risk assessment methodology. The main assumptions of the models, as well as the methods to estimated uncertain input parameters and the algorithms used to solve them are discussed and characterized.

  18. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, K.

    2012-12-01

    Tsunami hazard assessments for nuclear power stations (NPS) in Japan had been conducted by a deterministic method, but probabilistic methods are being adopted following the accident of Fukushima Daiichi NPS. The deterministic tsunami hazard assessment (DTHA), proposed by Japan Society of Civil Engineers in 2002 (Yanagisawa et al., 2007, Pageoph) considers various uncertainties by parameter studies. The design tsunami height at Fukushima NPS was set as 6.1 m, based on parameter studies by varying location, depth, and strike, dip and slip angles of the 1938 off-Fukushima earthquake (M 7.4). The maximum tsunami height for a hypothetical "tsunami earthquake" off Fukushima, similar to the 1896 Sanriku earthquake (Mt 8.2), and that for the 869 Jogan earthquake model (Mw 8.4) were estimated as 15.7 m and 8.9 m, respectively, before the 2011 accident (TEPCO report, 2012). The actual tsunami height at the Fukushima NPS on March 11, 2011 was 12 to 16 m. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) has been also proposed by JSCE (An'naka et al., 2007, Pageoph), and recently adopted in "Implementation Standard of Tsunami Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NPPs" published in 2012 by Atomic Energy Society of Japan. In PTHA, tsunami hazard curves, or probability of exeedance for tsunami heights, are constructed by integrating over aleatory uncertainties. The epistemic uncertainties are treated as branches of logic trees. The logic-tree branches for the earthquake source include the earthquake type, magnitude range, recurrence interval and the parameters of BPT distribution for the recurrent earthquakes. Because no "tsunami earthquake" was recorded off the Fukushima NPS, whether or not a "tsunami earthquake" occurs along the Japan trench off Fukushima, was a one of logic-tree branches, and the weight was determined by experts' opinions. Possibilities for multi-segment earthquakes are now added as logic-tree branches, after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which is considered as

  19. Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: Numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedonio, G.; Costa, A.; Folch, A.

    2008-12-01

    Volcanic ash fallout subsequent to a possible renewal of the Vesuvius activity represents a serious threat to the highly urbanized area around the volcano. In order to assess the relative hazard we consider three different possible scenarios such as those following Plinian, Sub-Plinian, and violent Strombolian eruptions. Reference eruptions for each scenario are similar to the 79 AD (Pompeii), the 1631 AD (or 472 AD) and the 1944 AD Vesuvius events, respectively. Fallout deposits for the first two scenarios are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the 2D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation. In contrast, fallout following a violent Strombolian event is modeled by means of FALL3D, a numerical model based on the solution of the full 3D advection-diffusion-sedimentation equation which is valid also within the atmospheric boundary layer. Inputs for models are total erupted mass, eruption column height, bulk grain-size, bulk component distribution, and a statistical set of wind profiles obtained by the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis. We computed ground load probability maps for different ash loadings. In the case of a Sub-Plinian scenario, the most representative tephra loading maps in 16 cardinal directions were also calculated. The probability maps obtained for the different scenarios are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies.

  20. Application of the Coastal Hazard Wheel methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment and management in the state of Djibouti

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl; Balstrøm, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    coastal classification system that incorporates the main static and dynamic parameters determining the characteristics of a coastal environment. The methodology provides information on the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding and can be used...... to support management decisions at local, regional and national level, in areas with limited access to geophysical data. The assessment for Djibouti applies a geographic information system (GIS) to develop a range of national hazard maps along with relevant hazard statistics and is showcasing the procedure......This paper presents the application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment and management in a changing global climate on the state of Djibouti. The methodology termed the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) is developed for worldwide application and is based on a specially designed...

  1. Mercury Hazard Assessment for Piscivorous Wildlife in Glacier National Park

    KAUST Repository

    Stafford, Craig P.

    2016-12-14

    We examined the mercury hazard posed to selected piscivorous wildlife in Glacier National Park (GNP), Montana. Logging Lake was our focal site where we estimated the dietary mercury concentrations of wildlife (common loon [Gavia immer], American mink [Neovison vison], river otter [Lontra canadensis], and belted kingfisher [Megaceryle alcyon]) by assuming that fishes were consumed in proportion to their relative abundances. To evaluate if Logging Lake provided a suitable baseline for our study, we made geographic comparisons of fish mercury levels and investigated the distribution and abundance of high mercury fishes within GNP. We complimented our assessment by examining selenium:mercury molar ratios in fishes from Logging Lake and Saint Mary Lake. Our results suggest fish consumption does not imperil wildlife from Logging Lake based on published thresholds for adverse mercury effects, but some hazard may exist particularly if there is strong feeding selectivity for the most contaminated species, northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis). The geographic comparisons of fish mercury levels, together with the distribution and abundance of high mercury fishes within GNP, suggest that Logging Lake provided a relatively protective baseline among our study lakes. Risk may be further reduced by the molar excess of selenium relative to mercury, particularly in the smaller fishes typically consumed by GNP wildlife. Our findings contrast with studies from northeastern US and southeastern Canada where greater mercury hazard to wildlife exists. An emergent finding from our research is that waterborne concentrations of methylmercury may provide limited insight into regional differences in fish mercury levels.

  2. Hazard and risk assessment of teratogenic chemicals under REACH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prutner, Wiebke

    2013-01-01

    In 2007, a new European chemicals legislation was implemented: Regulation (EC) No. 1907/2006, also known as "REACH." It obliges companies to take the main responsibility for the valid information on the safe use of the chemicals they manufacture and/or place on the European market. So they must, for example, register their chemicals at the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) and submit extensive substance-related registration dossiers containing information on the substances' intrinsic hazardous properties and documentation of their risk assessment. REACH regulates the registration and evaluation process as well as the authorization and restriction procedure. In addition, classification, labeling, and packaging of chemicals apply in accordance with Regulation (EC) No. 1272/2008 ("CLP Regulation"). It implements almost completely the provisions of the United Nations Globally Harmonised System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (UN GHS) into European legislation and will fully replace the Dangerous Substances Directive (67/548/EEC) and the Dangerous Preparations Directive (1999/45/EC) by 2015. According to both the old and the new classification system, teratogenic chemicals are classified as developmental toxicants, with developmental toxicity falling within the hazard class of reproductive toxicity. REACH as well as the CLP Regulation provide several procedures in which reproductive toxicants take a special position because their harmful effects are considered particularly serious. Teratogenic substances are not explicitly named by these legal texts but, as they constitute as developmental toxicants a hazard differentiation of reproductive toxicity, they are implicitly always included by the provisions.

  3. Volcano seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouet, B.

    2003-01-01

    A fundamental goal of volcano seismology is to understand active magmatic systems, to characterize the configuration of such systems, and to determine the extent and evolution of source regions of magmatic energy. Such understanding is critical to our assessment of eruptive behavior and its hazardous impacts. With the emergence of portable broadband seismic instrumentation, availability of digital networks with wide dynamic range, and development of new powerful analysis techniques, rapid progress is being made toward a synthesis of high-quality seismic data to develop a coherent model of eruption mechanics. Examples of recent advances are: (1) high-resolution tomography to image subsurface volcanic structures at scales of a few hundred meters; (2) use of small-aperture seismic antennas to map the spatio-temporal properties of long-period (LP) seismicity; (3) moment tensor inversions of very-long-period (VLP) data to derive the source geometry and mass-transport budget of magmatic fluids; (4) spectral analyses of LP events to determine the acoustic properties of magmatic and associated hydrothermal fluids; and (5) experimental modeling of the source dynamics of volcanic tremor. These promising advances provide new insights into the mechanical properties of volcanic fluids and subvolcanic mass-transport dynamics. As new seismic methods refine our understanding of seismic sources, and geochemical methods better constrain mass balance and magma behavior, we face new challenges in elucidating the physico-chemical processes that cause volcanic unrest and its seismic and gas-discharge manifestations. Much work remains to be done toward a synthesis of seismological, geochemical, and petrological observations into an integrated model of volcanic behavior. Future important goals must include: (1) interpreting the key types of magma movement, degassing and boiling events that produce characteristic seismic phenomena; (2) characterizing multiphase fluids in subvolcanic

  4. Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

    2017-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

  5. Evaluating the Use of Declustering for Induced Seismicity Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llenos, A. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    The recent dramatic seismicity rate increase in the central and eastern US (CEUS) has motivated the development of seismic hazard assessments for induced seismicity (e.g., Petersen et al., 2016). Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) relies fundamentally on the assumption that seismicity is Poissonian (Cornell, BSSA, 1968); therefore, the earthquake catalogs used in PSHA are typically declustered (e.g., Petersen et al., 2014) even though this may remove earthquakes that may cause damage or concern (Petersen et al., 2015; 2016). In some induced earthquake sequences in the CEUS, the standard declustering can remove up to 90% of the sequence, reducing the estimated seismicity rate by a factor of 10 compared to estimates from the complete catalog. In tectonic regions the reduction is often only about a factor of 2. We investigate how three declustering methods treat induced seismicity: the window-based Gardner-Knopoff (GK) algorithm, often used for PSHA (Gardner and Knopoff, BSSA, 1974); the link-based Reasenberg algorithm (Reasenberg, JGR,1985); and a stochastic declustering method based on a space-time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (Ogata, JASA, 1988; Zhuang et al., JASA, 2002). We apply these methods to three catalogs that likely contain some induced seismicity. For the Guy-Greenbrier, AR earthquake swarm from 2010-2013, declustering reduces the seismicity rate by factors of 6-14, depending on the algorithm. In northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas from 2010-2015, the reduction varies from factors of 1.5-20. In the Salton Trough of southern California from 1975-2013, the rate is reduced by factors of 3-20. Stochastic declustering tends to remove the most events, followed by the GK method, while the Reasenberg method removes the fewest. Given that declustering and choice of algorithm have such a large impact on the resulting seismicity rate estimates, we suggest that more accurate hazard assessments may be found using the complete catalog.

  6. Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Chung-Han; Wang, Yu; Wang, Yu-Ju; Lee, Ya-Ting

    2017-04-01

    To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach, combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change, and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.

  7. Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eidsvig, Unni Marie K.; Kristensen, Krister; Vidar Vangelsten, Bjørn

    2017-03-01

    This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures, with a focus on the indirect losses and loss of stability for the population relying on the infrastructure. The model prescribes a three-level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analyses to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability, including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself, and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterise conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure malfunctioning caused by a natural event, are defined as (1) robustness and buffer capacity, (2) level of protection, (3) quality/level of maintenance and renewal, (4) adaptability and quality of operational procedures and (5) transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe conditions influencing the socio-economic consequences of the infrastructure malfunctioning, such as (1) redundancy and/or substitution, (2) cascading effects and dependencies, (3) preparedness and (4) early warning, emergency response and measures. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (e.g. depending on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of

  8. Hazard assessments of double-shell flammable gas tanks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fox, G.L.; Stepnewski, D.D.

    1994-09-28

    This report is the fourth in a series of hazard assessments performed on the double-shell flammable gas watch list tanks. This report focuses on hazards associated with the double-shell watch list tanks (101-AW, 103-AN, 104-AN, and 105-AN). While a similar assessment has already been performed for tank 103-SY, it is also included here to incorporate a more representative slurry gas mixture and provide a consistent basis for comparing results for all the flammable gas tanks. This report is intended to provide an in-depth assessment by considering the details of the gas release event and slurry gas mixing as the gas is released from the waste. The consequences of postulated gas ignition are evaluated using a plume burn model and updated ignition frequency predictions. Tank pressurization which results from a gas burn, along with the structural response, is also considered. The report is intended to support the safety basis for work activities in flammable gas tanks by showing margins to safety limits that are available in the design and procedures.

  9. Role of beach morphology in wave overtopping hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Benjamin; Brown, Jennifer; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Plater, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the role of beach morphology in controlling wave overtopping volume will further minimise uncertainties in flood risk assessments at coastal locations defended by engineered structures worldwide. XBeach is used to model wave overtopping volume for a 1:200 yr joint probability distribution of waves and water levels with measured, pre- and post-storm beach profiles. The simulation with measured bathymetry is repeated with and without morphological evolution enabled during the modelled storm event. This research assesses the role of morphology in controlling wave overtopping volumes for hazardous events that meet the typical design level of coastal defence structures. Results show disabling storm-driven morphology under-represents modelled wave overtopping volumes by up to 39% under high Hs conditions, and has a greater impact on the wave overtopping rate than the variability applied within the boundary conditions due to the range of wave-water level combinations that meet the 1:200 yr joint probability criterion. Accounting for morphology in flood modelling is therefore critical for accurately predicting wave overtopping volumes and the resulting flood hazard and to assess economic losses.

  10. Panchromatic Satellite Image Classification for Flood Hazard Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Shaker

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to investigate the use of panchromatic (PAN satellite image data for flood hazard assessment with anaid of various digital image processing techniques. Two SPOT PAN satellite images covering part of the Nile River inEgypt were used to delineate the flood extent during the years 1997 and 1998 (before and after a high flood. Threeclassification techniques, including the contextual classifier, maximum likelihood classifier and minimum distanceclassifier, were applied to the following: 1 the original PAN image data, 2 the original PAN image data and grey-levelco-occurrence matrix texture created from the PAN data, and 3 the enhanced PAN image data using an edgesharpeningfilter. The classification results were assessed with reference to the results derived from manualdigitization and random checkpoints. Generally, the results showed improvement of the calculation of flood area whenan edge-sharpening filter was used. In addition, the maximum likelihood classifier yielded the best classificationaccuracy (up to 97% compared to the other two classifiers. The research demonstrates the benefits of using PANsatellite imagery as a potential data source for flood hazard assessment.

  11. Determination of lead and radioactivity in cosmetics products: Hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medhat Moustafa E.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the proposed work, an investigation on hazard assessment by lead element and natural radioactivity in cosmetic samples collected from various countries is presented. These samples were face powder, eyebrow paint and henna. The lead element in cosmetic samples was determined using particle-induced X-ray emission. Maximum natural radioactivity concentrations of 226Ra and 40K were found in khol and make-up cosmetic samples, respectively. The qualitative analysis of cosmetic samples showed that lead is the most toxic element found in eyebrow paint samples.

  12. Environmental Hazards Assessment Program. Quarterly report, July--September 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-01

    The objectives of the EHAP program stated in the proposal to DOE are to: (1) develop a holistic, national basis for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication which recognizes the direct impact of environmental hazards on the health and well-being of all, (2) develop a pool of talented scientists and experts in cleanup activities, especially in human health aspects, and (3) identify needs and develop programs addressing the critical shortage of well-educated, highly-skilled technical and scientific personnel to address the health oriented aspects of environmental restoration and waste management.

  13. Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya. D. Muraviev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

  14. Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

    2012-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructure around the world. Several works have attempted to study these phenomena in order to understand their origin, causes, evolution, consequences, and magnitude of their damages, to finally propose mechanisms to protect coastal societies. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risk on coastal areas. This work -Tsunami Hazard and Risk Assessment in El Salvador-, funded by AECID during the period 2009-12, examines the state of the art and presents a comprehensive methodology for assessing the risk of tsunamis at any coastal area worldwide and applying it to the coast of El Salvador. The conceptual framework is based on the definition of Risk as the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from a given hazard to a given element at danger or peril, over a specified time period (European Commission, Schneiderbauer et al., 2004). The HAZARD assessment (Phase I of the project) is based on propagation models for earthquake-generated tsunamis, developed through the characterization of tsunamigenic sources -sismotectonic faults- and other dynamics under study -tsunami waves, sea level, etc.-. The study area is located in a high seismic activity area and has been hit by 11 tsunamis between 1859 and 1997, nine of them recorded in the twentieth century and all generated by earthquakes. Simulations of historical and potential tsunamis with greater or lesser affection to the country's coast have been performed, including distant sources, intermediate and close. Deterministic analyses of the threats under study -coastal flooding- have been carried out, resulting in different hazard maps (maximum wave height elevation, maximum water depth, minimum tsunami

  15. Integrated multi-parameters Probabilistic Seismic Landslide Hazard Analysis (PSLHA): an innovative approach in the active volcano-tectonic area of Campi Flegrei (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caccavale, M.; Matano, F.; Sacchi, M.; Somma, R.; Troise, C.; De Natale, G.

    2013-12-01

    The western coastal sector of Campania region (southern Italy) is characterised by the presence of the active volcano-tectonic area of Campi Flegrei. This area represents a very particular and interesting case-study for a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The principal seismic source, related with the caldera, is not clearly constrained in the on-shore and off-shore areas. The well-known and monitored phenomenon of bradyseism affecting a large portion of case-study area is not modelled in the standard PSHA approach. From the environmental point of view the presence of very high exposed values in terms of population, buildings, infrastructures and palaces of high archaeological, natural and artistic value, makes this area a strategic natural laboratory to develop new methodologies. Moreover the geomorphological and geo-volcanological features lead to a heterogeneous coastline, made up by both beach and tuff cliffs, rapidly evolving for erosion and landslide (i.e. mainly rock fall and rock slide) phenomena that represent an additional hazard aspect. In the Campi Flegrei the possible occurrence of a moderate/large seismic event represents a serious threat for the inhabitants, for the infrastructures as well as for the environment. In the framework of Italian MON.I.C.A project (sinfrastructural coastlines monitoring) an innovative and dedicated probabilistic methodology has been applied to identify the areas with higher tendency of landslide occurrence due to the seismic effect. Resident population reported the occurrence of some small rock falls along tuff quarry slopes during the main shocks of the 1982-84 bradyseismic events. The PSHA methodology, introduced by Cornell (1968), combines the contributions to the hazard from all potential sources of earthquakes and the average activity rates associated to each seismogenic zone considered. The result of the PSHA is represented by the spatial distribution of a ground-motion (GM) parameter A, such as Peak

  16. WEB-based System for Aftershock Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranov, Sergey; Shebalin, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The first version of web-based system for automatic aftershock hazard assessment is available at http://afcast.org/afcast. The system software downloads earthquake data every 2 hours from ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/comcat/) provided on-line by USGS. Currently the system is aimed to assess hazard of aftershocks of M5.5+ after earthquakes of M6.5+. The access to the system is unlimited to the registered users only. First, the system estimates in quasi real time mode an area where strong aftershocks are expected. This area is modeled by an ellipse and stadium (the locus of distances from a line segment not exceeding a given value), both centered and oriented according to the main shock rupture, estimated using epicenters of the first 12 hours aftershocks. The sizes of the areas are controlled by q part of earthquakes for 12 hours after the mainshock from the enclosed circle with radius of 0.03x10^M/2. The chosen q-values are based on retrospective (1980-2015) analysis of the error diagram and imply three forecasting strategies: "soft", "neutral" and "hard". The "soft" strategy minimizes false alarms at a reasonable rate of failures to predict. The "hard" strategy, in contrary, minimizes the rate of failures to predict at a reasonable area of alarms. The "neutral" strategy equalizes errors of two types. Three concentric ellipses or stadiums may serve as benchmarks for the choice corresponding to specific hazard reduction measures between the three strategies. Next, the system will estimate the period and magnitude of the strongest aftershock expected inside the alarm area. This research was carried out at the expense of the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 16-17-00093).

  17. Applications of geophysical methods to volcano monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynn, Jeff; Dzurisin, Daniel; Finn, Carol A.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Lahusen, Richard G.

    2006-01-01

    The array of geophysical technologies used in volcano hazards studies - some developed originally only for volcano monitoring - ranges from satellite remote sensing including InSAR to leveling and EDM surveys, campaign and telemetered GPS networks, electronic tiltmeters and strainmeters, airborne magnetic and electromagnetic surveys, short-period and broadband seismic monitoring, even microphones tuned for infrasound. They include virtually every method used in resource exploration except large-scale seismic reflection. By “geophysical ” we include both active and passive methods as well as geodetic technologies. Volcano monitoring incorporates telemetry to handle high-bandwith cameras and broadband seismometers. Critical geophysical targets include the flux of magma in shallow reservoir and lava-tube systems, changes in active hydrothermal systems, volcanic edifice stability, and lahars. Since the eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State in 1980, and the eruption at Pu’u O’o in Hawai’i beginning in 1983 and still continuing, dramatic advances have occurred in monitoring technology such as “crisis GIS” and lahar modeling, InSAR interferograms, as well as gas emission geochemistry sampling, and hazards mapping and eruption predictions. The on-going eruption of Mount St. Helens has led to new monitoring technologies, including advances in broadband Wi-Fi and satellite telemetry as well as new instrumentation. Assessment of the gap between adequate monitoring and threat at the 169 potentially dangerous Holocene volcanoes shows where populations are dangerously exposed to volcanic catastrophes in the United States and its territories . This paper focuses primarily on Hawai’ian volcanoes and the northern Pacific and Cascades volcanoes. The US Geological Survey, the US National Park System, and the University of Utah cooperate in a program to monitor the huge Yellowstone volcanic system, and a separate observatory monitors the restive Long Valley

  18. Environmental Hazards Assessment Program quarterly report, January--March 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-30

    The objectives of the Environmental Hazards Assessment Program (EHAP) stated in the proposal to DOE are to: develop a holistic, national basis for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication that recognizes the direct impact of environmental hazards on the health and well-being of all; develop a pool of talented scientists and experts in cleanup activities, especially in human health aspects; and identify needs and develop programs addressing the critical shortage of well-educated, highly-skilled technical and scientific personnel to address the health oriented aspects of environmental restoration and waste management. This report describes activities and reports on progress for the third quarter (January--March) of the third year of the grant. It reports progress against these grant objectives and the Program Implementation Plan published at the end of the first year of the grant. Questions, comments, or requests for further information concerning the activities under this grant can be forwarded to Jack Davis in the EHAP office of the Medical University of South Carolina at (803) 727-6450.

  19. 78 FR 54956 - Agency Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-06

    ... AFFAIRS Agency Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment....rennie@va.gov . Please refer to ``OMB Control No. 2900-NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire.'' SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Title: Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard...

  20. 78 FR 33894 - Proposed Information Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-05

    ... Collection (Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment Questionnaire) Activity: Comment Request... forms of information technology. Title: Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard Self-Assessment...@va.gov . Please refer to ``OMB Control No. 2900-NEW, Open Burn Pit Registry Airborne Hazard...

  1. Landslide hazard assessment and mitigation measures in Philippine geothermal fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leynes, R.D.; Pioquinto, W.P.C.; Caranto, J.A. [PNOC Energy Development Corporation, Fort Bonifacio (Philippines)

    2005-04-01

    Simple, yet reliable, field criteria have been developed and are being used to qualitatively assess slope instability and slope failure potential in Philippine geothermal fields. Based on a hazard assessment classification of slopes along corridor facilities, sites for implementation of engineering measures are selected. Two case studies are presented. In Mindanao field, the ''very high-risk'' classification of an area resulted in the installation of pipe shelters, which subsequently shielded a section of a pipeline from landslides. Follow-up monitoring is also conducted using cheap, locally fabricated tools, such as surface extensometers. This is being done in Leyte field, where a landslide has threatened a transmission line tower. (author)

  2. ETINDE. Improving the role of a methodological approach and ancillary ethnoarchaeological data application for place vulnerability and resilience to a multi-hazard environment: Mt. Cameroon volcano case study [MIA-VITA project -FP7-ENV-2007-1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilaria Pannaccione Apa, Maria; Kouokam, Emmanuel; Mbe Akoko, Robert; Peppoloni, Silvia; Fabrizia Buongiorno, Maria; Thierry, Pierre

    2013-04-01

    The FP7 MIA-VITA [Mitigate and assess risk from volcanic impact on terrain and human activities] project has been designed to address multidisciplinary aspects of volcanic threat assessment and management from prevention to crisis management recovery. In the socio-economic analysis carried out at Mt. Cameroon Bakweri and Bakossi ethnic groups, ancillary ethnoarchaeological information has been included to point out the cultural interaction between the volcano and its residents. In 2009-2011, ethnoanthropological surveys and interviews for data collection were carried out at Buea, Limbe, West Coast, Tiko and Muyuka sub-divisions adjacent to Mt. Cameroon. One of the outstanding, results from the Bakweri and Bakossi cultural tradition study: natural hazards are managed and produced by supernatural forces, as: Epasa Moto, God of the Mountain (Mt. Cameroon volcano) and Nyango Na Nwana , Goddess of the sea (Gulf of Guinea). In the case of Mount Cameroon, people may seek the spirit or gods of the mountain before farming, hunting and most recently the undertaking of the Mount Cameroon annual race are done. The spirit of this mountain must be seek to avert or stop a volcanic eruption because the eruption is attributed to the anger of the spirit. Among the Northern Bakweri, the association of spirits with the mountain could also be explained in terms of the importance of the mountain to the people. Most of their farming and hunting is done on the Mountain. Some forest products, for instance, wood for building and furniture is obtained from the forest of the mountain; this implies that the people rely on the Mountain for food, game and architecture/furniture etc. In addition, the eruption of the mountain is something which affects the people. It does not only destroy property, it frustrates people and takes away human lives when it occurs. Because of this economic importance of the Mountain and its unexpected and unwanted eruption, the tendency is to believe that it has some

  3. LAV@HAZARD: A Web-Gis interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Giovanni Gallo; Alexis Hérault; Eugenio Rustico; Gaetana Ganci; Annalisa Cappello; Sergio Bonfiglio; Giuseppe Bilotta; Annamaria Vicari; Ciro Del Negro

    2011-01-01

    Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy) over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experime...

  4. New techniques for landslide hazard assessments: opportunities, methodology, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, D. B.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Adler, R. F.; Hong, Y.

    2009-12-01

    An emerging global rainfall-triggered landslide hazard algorithm employs an empirical framework to identify potentially susceptible areas to rainfall-triggered landslides in near real-time. This methodology couples a satellite-derived estimate of cumulative rainfall with a static surface susceptibility map to highlight regions of anticipated landslide activity. While this algorithm represents an important first step in developing a larger-scale landslide prediction framework, there are many uncertainties and assumptions surrounding such a methodology that decreases the functionality and utility of this system. This research seeks to improve upon this initial concept by exploring the potential opportunities and methodological structure needed to advance larger-scale landslide hazard forecasting and make it more of an operational reality. Sensitivity analysis of the surface and rainfall parameters in the preliminary algorithm indicates that surface data resolution and the interdependency of variables must be more appropriately quantified at local and regional scales. Additionally, integrating available surface parameters must be approached in a more theoretical, physically-based manner to better represent the physical processes underlying slope instability and landslide initiation. Several rainfall infiltration and hydrological flow models have been developed to model slope instability at small spatial scales. This research investigates the potential of upscaling a more quantitative hydrological model to larger spatial scales, utilizing satellite and surface data inputs that are obtainable over different geographic regions. Due to the significant role that data and methodological uncertainties play in the effectiveness of landslide hazard assessment outputs, the methodology and data inputs are considered within an ensemble uncertainty framework in order to better resolve the contribution and limitations of model inputs and more effectively communicate the model skill.

  5. Tsunami hazard assessment for the island of Rhodes, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Zaniboni, Filippo; Tinti, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    The island of Rhodes is part of the Dodecanese archipelago, and is one of the many islands that are found in the Aegean Sea. The tectonics of the Rhodes area is rather complex, involving both strike-slip and dip-slip (mainly thrust) processes. Tsunami catalogues (e.g. Papadopulos et al, 2007) show the relative high frequency of occurrence of tsunamis in this area, some also destructive, in particular between the coasts of Rhodes and Turkey. In this part of the island is located the town of Rhodes, the capital and also the largest and most populated city. Rhodes is historically famous for the Colossus of Rhodes, collapsed following an earthquake, and nowadays is a popular tourist destination. This work is focused on the hazard assessment evaluation with research performed in the frame of the European project NearToWarn. The hazard is assessed by using the worst-credible case scenario, a method introduced and used to study local tsunami hazard in coastal towns like Catania, Italy, and Alexandria, Egypt (Tinti et al., 2012). The tsunami sources chosen for building scenarios are three: two located in the sea area in front of the Turkish coasts where the events are more frequent represent local sources and were selected in the frame of the European project NearToWarn, while one provides the case of a distant source. The first source is taken from the paper Ebeling et al. (2012) and modified by UNIBO and models the earthquake and small tsunami occurred on 25th April 1957.The second source is a landslide and is derived from the TRANSFER Project "Database of Tsunamigenic Non-Seismic Sources" and coincides with the so-called "Northern Rhodes Slide", possibly responsible for the 24th March 2002 tsunami. The last source is the fault that is located close to the island of Crete believed to be responsible for the tsunami event of 1303 that was reported to have caused damage in the city of Rhodes. The simulations are carried out using the finite difference code UBO-TSUFD that

  6. Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Boominathan; G R Dodagoudar; A Suganthi; R Uma Maheswari

    2008-11-01

    Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.

  7. Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Aspospirgos Area, Athens - Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voulgaris, N.; Drakatos, G.; Lekkas, E.; Karastathis, V.; Valadaki, A.; Plessas, S.

    2005-12-01

    The extensive damages and human life loss related to the September 7, 1999 earthquake in the Athens area (Greece) initiated an effort to re-evaluate seismic hazard in various regions around the capital. One of the target areas selected within the framework of the specially designed research project ESTIA was the industrial area of Aspropirgos, where the epicenter of the main shock was located. The multidisciplinary approach towards seismic hazard assessment included a microseismicity survey and detailed geological and tectonic studies in the area in order to delineate and define the recently activated seismic sources in the area. Initially a portable network, consisting of seventeen (17) digital seismographs was installed and operated for 2 months during the autumn of 2004. A total of five hundred forty five (545) earthquakes (Mengineer is able to calculate specific design spectra for every site while combination with available vulnerability estimates could lead to more realistic seismic risk calculations. Acknowledgments We would like to thank the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of Greece for the partial support of this research, in the framework of ESTIA project.

  8. Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boominathan, A.; Dodagoudar, G. R.; Suganthi, A.; Uma Maheswari, R.

    2008-11-01

    Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.

  9. Assessment of health hazards and associated factors among the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    admin

    Results: The overall magnitude of health hazards was 41%: diarrhea 31.6% and ... impact health policies in Ethiopia (16). ... size, the prevalence rate of health hazard on returned ..... unemployment, lack of food, water, and housing were the.

  10. The application of a calibrated 3D ballistic trajectory model to ballistic hazard assessments at Upper Te Maari, Tongariro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, R. H.; Tsunematsu, K.; Kennedy, B. M.; Breard, E. C. P.; Lube, G.; Wilson, T. M.; Jolly, A. D.; Pawson, J.; Rosenberg, M. D.; Cronin, S. J.

    2014-10-01

    On 6 August, 2012, Upper Te Maari Crater, Tongariro volcano, New Zealand, erupted for the first time in over one hundred years. Multiple vents were activated during the hydrothermal eruption, ejecting blocks up to 2.3 km and impacting ~ 2.6 km of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing (TAC) hiking track. Ballistic impact craters were mapped to calibrate a 3D ballistic trajectory model for the eruption. This was further used to inform future ballistic hazard. Orthophoto mapping revealed 3587 impact craters with a mean diameter of 2.4 m. However, field mapping of accessible regions indicated an average of at least four times more observable impact craters and a smaller mean crater diameter of 1.2 m. By combining the orthophoto and ground-truthed impact frequency and size distribution data, we estimate that approximately 13,200 ballistic projectiles were generated during the eruption. The 3D ballistic trajectory model and a series of inverse models were used to constrain the eruption directions, angles and velocities. When combined with eruption observations and geophysical observations, the model indicates that the blocks were ejected in five variously directed eruption pulses, in total lasting 19 s. The model successfully reproduced the mapped impact distribution using a mean initial particle velocity of 200 m/s with an accompanying average gas flow velocity over a 400 m radius of 150 m/s. We apply the calibrated model to assess ballistic hazard from the August eruption along the TAC. By taking the field mapped spatial density of impacts and an assumption that an average ballistic impact will cause serious injury or death (casualty) over an 8 m2 area, we estimate that the probability of casualty ranges from 1% to 16% along the affected track (assuming an eruption during the time of exposure). Future ballistic hazard and probabilities of casualty along the TAC are also assessed through application of the calibrated model. We model a magnitude larger eruption and illustrate

  11. Assessment of rock properties and slope stability at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Lauren; Kendrick, Jackie; Oommen, Thomas; Lavallee, Yan

    2014-05-01

    Pacaya is an active stratovolcano located 30 km south of Guatemala City, Guatemala. A large (0.65 km3) sector collapse of the volcano occurred 0.6 - 1.6 ka B.P., producing a debris avalanche that traveled 25 km SW of the edifice. The structural setting of the current cone, along with two recent smaller-volume collapses in 1962 and 2010, suggest gravitational instability of this volcano. Recent measurements of the geomechanical properties of lava and breccia from Pacaya are used to improve our understanding of the destabilizing potential of different volcanic processes. Room-temperature uniaxial and triaxial compressive tests, and total porosity tests, were conducted on 17 breccia and 21 lava samples. The average uniaxial compressive strength (σci) of lava rocks was moderately strong (σci = 72.4 MPa), with breccia rocks being 62.2% weaker (σci = 27.4 MPa). These values can partially be contributed to lava rock's very low porosity (0.054) and breccia rock's higher porosity (0.19). We also find an apparent rate-dependent strengthening of the samples as strain rate is increased from 10-5 to 10-1. Values of Poisson's Ratio (v) and Young's Modulus (E) calculated from triaxial tests, are v= 0.28 and E = 13.9 GPa for breccia and v= 0.31 and E = 17.6 GPa for lava. These experiments highlight the contrasting character of breccia versus lava, and suggest that sector collapse may have initiated in the weaker breccia. Additionally, cohesion (c) and friction angle (φ) calculated from triaxial tests yielded values of c = 1.8 MPa and φ = 19.4° for breccia and c = 4.0 MPa and φ = 41.4° for lava. Following sector collapse, the frictional properties of the rocks partially dictate the flow and deposition of the debris avalanche, and these were studied using high velocity rotary shear experiments on ash and lava rock. Experimental results are combined to understand the historical flank stability and assess the likelihood of future sector collapse at Pacaya.

  12. Environmental Hazards Assessment Program annual report, [June 1992--June 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This report, the Environment Hazards Assessment Program (EHAP) Annual Report, is the second of three reports that document activities under the EHAP grant and details progress made during the first year of the grant. The first year was devoted to the development of a working program implementation plan. During the developmental process some key objectives were achieved such as developing a Doctor of Philosophy degree program in Environmental Studies at MUSC (Medical University of South Carolina) and conducting the first Crossroads of Humanity series Round Table Forum. The PIP (Program Implementation Program) details the objectives, management and budgetary basis for the overall management and control of the grant over the next four years, the yearly program plans provide the monthly and day-to-day programmatic and budgetary control by which the PIP was developed.

  13. Assessment of the tsunami-induced current hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynett, Patrick J.; Borrero, Jose; Son, Sangyoung; Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin

    2014-03-01

    The occurrence of tsunami damage is not limited to events causing coastal inundation. Even without flooding, maritime assets are vulnerable to significant damage from strong currents and associated drag forces. While such impacts have been observed in the past, they have not been well studied in any context. Nearshore tsunami currents are governed by nonlinear and turbulent physics and often have large spatial and temporal variability making high-fidelity modeling particularly challenging. Furthermore, measured data for the validation of numerical simulations is limited, with few quality data sets appearing after recent tsunami events. In this paper, we present a systematic approach for the interpretation of measured tsunami-induced current impacts as well as a validation approach for simulation tools. The methods and results provided here lay the foundation for much needed efforts to assess tsunami hazards in ports and harbors.

  14. Assessment of rock burst hazards by means of seismic methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proskuryakov, V.M.

    1984-10-01

    Use of seismic methods for assessment of stress distribution in coal seams and in rock strata adjacent to coal seams is discussed. Analysis of information on stress distribution permits rock burst hazards to be forecast. Schemes of seismic logging used in coal mining are compared. Recommendations developed by the VNIMI Institute for optimization of seismic logging are analyzed: selecting a seismic method considering tectonics, stratification and rock properties, arrangement of seismic sources and seismic detectors, selecting the optimum parameters of seismic waves (wave frequency recommended for rocks ranges from 400 to 1000 Hz; recommended wave frequency for coal ranges from 200 to 600 Hz), measuring instruments (e.g. the ShchTsS-2 system), and calculation methods used for evaluations of seismic logging. A standardized procedure for seismic logging is recommended.

  15. Environmental Hazards Assessment Program. Quarterly report, April--June 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-31

    The objectives of this report are to: (1) develop a holistic, national basis for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication that recognizes the direct impact of environmental hazards, both chemical and radiation, on the health and well-being of all; (2) develop a pool of talented scientists and experts in cleanup activities, especially in human health aspects; and (3) identify needs and develop programs addressing the critical shortage of well-educated, highly-skilled technical and scientific personnel to address the health oriented aspects of environmental restoration and waste management. This report describes the progress made this quarter in the following areas: public and professional outreach; science programs; clinical programs; and information support and access systems.

  16. Cancer risk assessment of selected hazardous air pollutants in Seattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chang-Fu; Wu, Szu-Ying; Wu, Yi-Hua; Cullen, Alison C; Larson, Timothy V; Williamson, John; Liu, L-J Sally

    2009-04-01

    The risk estimates calculated from the conventional risk assessment method usually are compound specific and provide limited information for source-specific air quality control. We used a risk apportionment approach, which is a combination of receptor modeling and risk assessment, to estimate source-specific lifetime excess cancer risks of selected hazardous air pollutants. We analyzed the speciated PM(2.5) and VOCs data collected at the Beacon Hill in Seattle, WA between 2000 and 2004 with the Multilinear Engine to first quantify source contributions to the mixture of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in terms of mass concentrations. The cancer risk from exposure to each source was then calculated as the sum of all available species' cancer risks in the source feature. We also adopted the bootstrapping technique for the uncertainty analysis. The results showed that the overall cancer risk was 6.09 x 10(-5), with the background (1.61 x 10(-5)), diesel (9.82 x 10(-6)) and wood burning (9.45 x 10(-6)) sources being the primary risk sources. The PM(2.5) mass concentration contributed 20% of the total risk. The 5th percentile of the risk estimates of all sources other than marine and soil were higher than 110(-6). It was also found that the diesel and wood burning sources presented similar cancer risks although the diesel exhaust contributed less to the PM(2.5) mass concentration than the wood burning. This highlights the additional value from such a risk apportionment approach that could be utilized for prioritizing control strategies to reduce the highest population health risks from exposure to HAPs.

  17. Dig Hazard Assessment Using a Stereo Pair of Cameras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rankin, Arturo L.; Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey

    2012-01-01

    This software evaluates the terrain within reach of a lander s robotic arm for dig hazards using a stereo pair of cameras that are part of the lander s sensor system. A relative level of risk is calculated for a set of dig sectors. There are two versions of this software; one is designed to run onboard a lander as part of the flight software, and the other runs on a PC under Linux as a ground tool that produces the same results generated on the lander, given stereo images acquired by the lander and downlinked to Earth. Onboard dig hazard assessment is accomplished by executing a workspace panorama command sequence. This sequence acquires a set of stereo pairs of images of the terrain the arm can reach, generates a set of candidate dig sectors, and assesses the dig hazard of each candidate dig sector. The 3D perimeter points of candidate dig sectors are generated using configurable parameters. A 3D reconstruction of the terrain in front of the lander is generated using a set of stereo images acquired from the mast cameras. The 3D reconstruction is used to evaluate the dig goodness of each candidate dig sector based on a set of eight metrics. The eight metrics are: 1. The maximum change in elevation in each sector, 2. The elevation standard deviation in each sector, 3. The forward tilt of each sector with respect to the payload frame, 4. The side tilt of each sector with respect to the payload frame, 5. The maximum size of missing data regions in each sector, 6. The percentage of a sector that has missing data, 7. The roughness of each sector, and 8. Monochrome intensity standard deviation of each sector. Each of the eight metrics forms a goodness image layer where the goodness value of each sector ranges from 0 to 1. Goodness values of 0 and 1 correspond to high and low risk, respectively. For each dig sector, the eight goodness values are merged by selecting the lowest one. Including the merged goodness image layer, there are nine goodness image layers for each

  18. Volcano Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... You might feel better to learn that an ‘active’ volcano is one that has erupted in the past ... miles away. If you live near a known volcano, active or dormant, following these tips will help you ...

  19. UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

  20. Active Fault Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Fuzhou City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhu Jinfang; Han Zhujun; Huang Zonglin; Xu Xiwei; Zheng Rongzhang; Fang Shengmin; Bai Denghai; Wang Guangcai; Min Wei; Wen Xueze

    2005-01-01

    It has been proven by a number of earthquake case studies that an active fault-induced earthquake beneath a city can be devastating. It is an urgent issue for seismic hazard reduction to explore the distribution of active faults beneath the urban area and identify the seismic source and the risks underneath. As a pilot project of active fault exploration in China, the project, entitled "Active fault exploration and seismic hazard assessment in Fuzhou City",started in early 2001 and passed the check before acceptance of China Earthquake Administration in August 2004. The project was aimed to solve a series of scientific issues such as fault location, dating, movement nature, deep settings, seismic risk and hazard,preparedness of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, and etc. by means of exploration and assessment of active faults by stages, i.e., the preliminary survey and identification of active faults in target area, the exploration of deep seismotectonic settings, the risk evaluation of active seismogenic faults, the construction of geographic information system of active faults, and so on. A lot of exploration methods were employed in the project such as the detection of absorbed mercury, free mercury and radon in soil, the geological radar,multi-channel DC electrical method, tsansient electromagnetic method, shallow seismic refraction and reflection, effect contrast of explored sources, and various sounding experiments, to establish the buried Quaternary standard section of the Fuzhou basin. By summing up, the above explorations and experiments have achieved the following results and conclusions:(1) The results of the synthetic pilot project of active fault exploration in Fuzhou City demonstrate that, on the basis of sufficient collection, sorting out and analysis of geological,geophysical and borehole data, the best method for active fault exploration (location) and seismic risk assessnent (dating and characterizing) in urban area is the combination

  1. Assessment of seismic hazards along the northern Gulf of Aqaba

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman Aqel

    Aqaba and Elat are very important port and recreation cities for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Israel, respectively. The two cities are the most susceptible to damage from a destructive future earthquake because they are located over the tectonically active Dead Sea transform fault (DST) that is the source of most of the major historical earthquakes in the region. The largest twentieth century earthquake on the DST, the magnitude Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake of November 22, 1995, caused damage to structures in both cities. The integration of geological, geophysical, and earthquake engineering studies will help to assess the seismic hazards by determining the location and slip potential of active faults and by mapping areas of high liquefaction susceptibility. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as a high resolution shallow geophysical tool was used to map the shallow active faults in Aqaba, Taba Sabkha area, and Elat. The GPR data revealed the onshore continuation of the Evrona, West Aqaba, Aqaba fault zones, and several transverse faults. The integration of offshore and onshore data confirm the extension of these faults along both sides of the Gulf of Aqaba. A 3D model of GPR data at one site in Aqaba indicates that the NW-trending transverse faults right laterally offset older than NE-trending faults. The most hazardous fault is the Evrona fault which extends north to the Tabs Sabkha. A geographic information system (GIS) database of the seismic hazard was created in order to facilitate the analyzing, manipulation, and updating of the input parameters. Liquefaction potential maps were created for the region based on analysis of borehole data. The liquefaction map shows high and moderate liquefaction susceptibility zones along the northern coast of the Gulf of Aqaba. In Aqaba several hotels are located within a high and moderate liquefaction zones. The Yacht Club, Aqaba, Ayla archaeological site, and a part of commercial area are also situated in a risk area. A part

  2. Hazard assessment of United Arab Emirates (UAE) incense smoke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Rebecca; Sexton, Kenneth G; Yeatts, Karin B

    2013-08-01

    Incense burning inside the home, a common practice in Arabian Gulf countries, has been recognized as a potentially modifiable source of indoor air pollution. To better understand potential adverse effects of incense burning in exposed individuals, we conducted a hazard assessment of incense smoke exposure. The goals of this study were first to characterize the particles and gases emitted from Arabian incense over time when burned, and secondly to examine in vitro human lung cells responses to incense smoke. Two types of incense (from the United Arab Emirates) were burned in a specially designed indoor environmental chamber (22 m(3)) to simulate the smoke concentration in a typical living room and the chamber air was analyzed. Both particulate (PM) concentrations and sizes were measured, as were gases carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), formaldehyde (HCHO), and carbonyls. During the burn, peak concentrations were recorded for PM (1.42 mg/m(3)), CO (122 pm), NOx (0.3 ppm), and HCHO (85 ppb) along with pentanal (71.9 μg/m(3)), glyoxal (84.8 μg/m(3)), and several other carbonyls. Particle sizes ranged from 20 to 300 nm with count median diameters ranging from 65 to 92 nm depending on time post burn-out. PM, CO, and NOx time-weighted averages exceeded current government regulation values and emissions seen previously from environmental tobacco smoke. Charcoal emissions were the main contributor to both the high CO and NOx concentrations. A significant cell inflammatory response was observed in response to smoke components formed from incense burning. Our hazard evaluation suggests that incense burning contributes to indoor air pollution and could be harmful to human health.

  3. Two Stage Assessment of Thermal Hazard in An Underground Mine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drenda, Jan; Sułkowski, Józef; Pach, Grzegorz; Różański, Zenon; Wrona, Paweł

    2016-06-01

    The results of research into the application of selected thermal indices of men's work and climate indices in a two stage assessment of climatic work conditions in underground mines have been presented in this article. The difference between these two kinds of indices was pointed out during the project entitled "The recruiting requirements for miners working in hot underground mine environments". The project was coordinated by The Institute of Mining Technologies at Silesian University of Technology. It was a part of a Polish strategic project: "Improvement of safety in mines" being financed by the National Centre of Research and Development. Climate indices are based only on physical parameters of air and their measurements. Thermal indices include additional factors which are strictly connected with work, e.g. thermal resistance of clothing, kind of work etc. Special emphasis has been put on the following indices - substitute Silesian temperature (TS) which is considered as the climatic index, and the thermal discomfort index (δ) which belongs to the thermal indices group. The possibility of the two stage application of these indices has been taken into consideration (preliminary and detailed estimation). Based on the examples it was proved that by the application of thermal hazard (detailed estimation) it is possible to avoid the use of additional technical solutions which would be necessary to reduce thermal hazard in particular work places according to the climate index. The threshold limit value for TS has been set, based on these results. It was shown that below TS = 24°C it is not necessary to perform detailed estimation.

  4. Turtles to Terabytes: The Ongoing Revolution in Volcano Geodesy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzurisin, D.

    2015-12-01

    Volcano geodesy is in the midst of a revolution. GPS and InSAR, together with extensive ground-based sensor networks, have enabled major advances in understanding how and why volcanoes deform. Surveying techniques that produced a few bytes of information per benchmark per year have been replaced by continuously operating deformation networks and imaging radar satellites that generate terabytes of data at resolutions unattainable only a few decades ago. These developments have enabled more detailed assessments of volcano hazards, more accurate forecasts of volcanic activity, and better insights into how volcanoes behave over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Forty years ago, repeated leveling surveys showed that the floor of the Yellowstone caldera had risen more than 70 cm in the past 5 decades. Today a network of GPS stations tracks surface movements continuously with millimeter-scale accuracy and the entire deformation field is imaged frequently by a growing number of SAR satellites, revealing a far more complex style of deformation than was recognized previously. At Mount St. Helens, the 1980-1986 eruption taught us that a seemingly quiescent volcano can suddenly become overtly restless, and that accurate eruption predictions are possible at least in some limited circumstances given sufficient observations. The lessons were revisited during the volcano's 2004-2008 eruption, during which a new generation of geodetic sensors and methods detected a range of co-eruptive changes that enabled new insights into the volcano's magma storage and transport system. These examples highlight volcano deformation styles and scales that were unknown just a few decades ago but now have been revealed by a growing number of data types and modeling methods. The rapid evolution that volcano geodesy is currently experiencing provides an ongoing challenge for geodesists, while also demonstrating that geodetic unrest is common, widespread, and illuminating. Vive la révolution!

  5. Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka)

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows)» has been deve...

  6. Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Dry Cask Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bencturk, Bora [Univ. of Houston, TX (United States); Padgett, Jamie [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Uddin, Rizwan [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States).

    2017-01-10

    systems the concrete shall not only provide shielding but insures stability of the upright canister, facilitates anchoring, allows ventilation, and provides physical protection against theft, severe weather and natural (seismic) as well as man-made events (blast incidences). Given the need to remain functional for 40 years or even longer in case of interim storage, the concrete outerpack and the internal canister components need to be evaluated with regard to their long-term ability to perform their intended design functions. Just as evidenced by deteriorating concrete bridges, there are reported visible degradation mechanisms of dry storage systems especially when high corrosive environments are considered in maritime locations. The degradation of reinforced concrete is caused by multiple physical and chemical mechanisms, which may be summarized under the heading of environmental aging. The underlying hygro-thermal transport processes are accelerated by irradiation effects, hence creep and shrinkage need to include the effect of chloride penetration, alkali aggregate reaction as well as corrosion of the reinforcing steel. In light of the above, the two main objectives of this project are to (1) develop a probabilistic multi-hazard assessment framework, and (2) through experimental and numerical research perform a comprehensive assessment under combined earthquake loads and aging induced deterioration, which will also provide data for the development and validation of the probabilistic framework.

  7. An Assessment of the Volcanic Hazards on the Island of Heimaey, Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, R.

    2005-12-01

    The Vestmannaeyjar Islands, off the southern coast of Iceland, mark the most recent area of activity in the southward propagation of the East Volcanic Zone. The eruptions of the islands of Surtsey in 1963 to 1967 and of Heimaey in 1973 indicate a phase of increased activity. The Vestmannaeyjar Islands are thought to be developing into the central (composite) volcano within the volcanic system of the same name. The magma of the 1973 Heimaey eruption is of the same general composition, although slightly more evolved, as that of the 1963 Surtsey eruption. Increased volcanic activity in the area automatically creates increased risk to the island of Heimaey with a population of 5300. Thus a study of the evolution of the island up to and including the 1973 eruption was carried out and a hazard map compiled for the island. The hazard map encapsulates the areas of highest risk, as well as alternative evacuation routes from the island. The logistics of an evacuation of the island are an issue that needs to be addressed; following the favorable evacuation during the 1973 eruption, a false sense of security could be said to be in place. The study also looked at the awareness of the population and their education as regards the volcanic hazards in the area. The hazard map for the island recognizes that a future eruption could be further away from the populated areas of the island, though this does alter the risk involved. A future eruption could occur to the northeast of the island, in which case it would block the natural harbor. Aside from evacuation in an emergency, further questions arise from this study in relation to the future of the island and its predominant fishing industry. The main conclusions of the study are, first, that the people of the island feel that an imminent eruption of the Katla Volcano on the mainland poses perhaps the only future volcanic hazard. Katla Volcano being on the mainland, its future eruption will not much affect them. A second main

  8. A Toolkit for Dermal Risk Assessment: Toxicological Approach for Hazard Characterization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuhmacher-Wolz, U.; Kalberlah, F.; Oppl, R.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2003-01-01

    The toxicological background for hazard assessment using a simple to use toolkit for assessment and management of health risks from occupational dermal exposure is presented. Hazard assessment is intended to answer the following questions: (i) is the substance under consideration capable of damaging

  9. Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

    2007-06-01

    Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

  10. Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

    2004-10-01

    Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

  11. Hazard assessment at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Joan; Sobradelo, Rosa; Felpeto, Alicia

    2010-05-01

    need to include these volcanoes in any local and regional risk-based decision-making planning for land use and emergency management, we have conducted a detailed hazard assessment of Teide-Pico Viejo. The aim of this work is to raise awareness towards the degree of threat that Teide-Pico Viejo represents for the island of Tenerife, by means of evaluating the current eruption hazard of the volcanic complex based on a statistical analysis of the time distribution of past eruptions and the spatial extent of some of their products. The analysis of past activity and the extent of some well-identified deposits are used to calculate the recurrence probabilities of eruptions of various sizes during time periods useful to assist the intermediate and long-term land-use and emergency planning. The results indicate that Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes represent a VERY HIGH threat for Tenerife and that the northern side of the island, in particular the Icod Valley, is directly exposed to most of their hazards, so making that region highly vulnerable to any new eruption from Teide-Pico Viejo.

  12. Assessing the potential hazard of chemical substances for the terrestrial environment. Development of hazard classification criteria and quantitative environmental indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarazona, J V; Fresno, A; Aycard, S; Ramos, C; Vega, M M; Carbonell, G

    2000-03-20

    Hazard assessment constitutes an essential tool in order to evaluate the potential effects of chemical substances on organisms and ecosystems. It includes as a first step, hazard identification, which must detect the potential dangers of the substance (i.e. the kind of effects that the substance may produce), and a second step to quantify each danger and to set the expected dose/response relationships. Hazard assessment plays a key role in the regulation of chemical substances, including pollution control and sustainable development. However, the aquatic environment has largely received more attention than terrestrial ecosystems. This paper presents the extrapolation of several basic concepts from the aquatic to the terrestrial compartment, and suggests possibilities for their regulatory use. Two specific proposals are discussed. The first focuses on the scientific basis of the hazard identification-classification criteria included in the EU regulations and their extrapolation to the terrestrial environment. The second focuses on the OECD programme for environmental indicators and the development of a soil pollution pressure indicator to quantify the potential hazards for the soil compartment and its associated terrestrial ecosystem related to the toxic chemicals applied deliberately (i.e. pesticides) or not (i.e. heavy metals in sludge-based fertilisers; industrial spills) to the soil.

  13. Tsunamis hazard assessment and monitoring for the Back Sea area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partheniu, Raluca; Ionescu, Constantin; Constantin, Angela; Moldovan, Iren; Diaconescu, Mihail; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Radulian, Mircea; Toader, Victorin

    2016-04-01

    NIEP has improved lately its researches regarding tsunamis in the Black Sea. As part of the routine earthquake and tsunami monitoring activity, the first tsunami early-warning system in the Black Sea has been implemented in 2013 and is active during these last years. In order to monitor the seismic activity of the Black Sea, NIEP is using a total number of 114 real time stations and 2 seismic arrays, 18 of the stations being located in Dobrogea area, area situated in the vicinity of the Romanian Black Sea shore line. Moreover, there is a data exchange with the Black Sea surrounding countries involving the acquisition of real-time data for 17 stations from Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia and Ukraine. This improves the capability of the Romanian Seismic Network to monitor and more accurately locate the earthquakes occurred in the Black Sea area. For tsunamis monitoring and warning, a number of 6 sea level monitoring stations, 1 infrasound barometer, 3 offshore marine buoys and 7 GPS/GNSS stations are installed in different locations along and near the Romanian shore line. In the framework of ASTARTE project, few objectives regarding the seismic hazard and tsunami waves height assessment for the Black Sea were accomplished. The seismic hazard estimation was based on statistical studies of the seismic sources and their characteristics, compiled using different seismic catalogues. Two probabilistic methods were used for the evaluation of the seismic hazard, the Cornell method, based on the Gutenberg Richter distribution parameters, and Gumbel method, based on extremes statistic. The results show maximum values of possible magnitudes and their recurrence periods, for each seismic source. Using the Tsunami Analysis Tool (TAT) software, a set of tsunami modelling scenarios have been generated for Shabla area, the seismic source that could mostly affect the Romanian shore. These simulations are structured in a database, in order to set maximum possible tsunami waves that could be

  14. Respiratory hazards: clinical and functional assessment in aluminum industry workers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lamiaa H. Shaaban

    2016-04-01

    Conclusions: Aluminum industry is hazardous to both the workers and the community. The pulmonary hazards are significantly higher in workers who are continuously exposed to gases and pollutants for more than 8 h/day. Moreover the free radicals of silica and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons may have a direct relationship with the recorded changes in diaphragmatic and pulmonary functions and may be precancerous.

  15. an assessment of knowledge of farming-related hazards and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Tersor

    and long distance trekking to farm (mean=1114.08) were the top known hazards among farmers in the ... knowledge and practices of farm related occupational hazards in the study area. ... is also very important in this process since it plays.

  16. Multisite flooding hazard assessment in the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Roth, Giorgio; Rudari, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    SummaryThis contribution presents an assessment of the joint probability distribution able to describe multi-site multi-basin flood scenarios in a high dimensionality framework. This goal will be pursued through two different approaches: the multivariate skew- t distribution and the Student copula with arbitrary margins. While copulas have been widely used in the modeling of hydrological processes, the use of the skew- t distribution in hydrology has been only recently proposed with reference to a trivariate application (Ghizzoni et al., 2010, Adv. Water Resour., 33, 1243-1255). Both methods are here applied and discussed in a context of considerably higher dimensionality: the Upper Mississippi River floods. In fact, to enhance the characteristics of the correlation structure, eighteen nested and non-nested gauging stations were selected, with significantly different contributing areas. Such conditions represent a challenge for both the skew- t and the copula approach. In perspective, the ability of such approaches in explaining the multivariate aspects of the relevant processes is needed to specify flood hazard scenarios in terms of their intensity, extension and frequency. When this is associated to the knowledge of location, value and vulnerability of exposed elements, comprehensive flood risk scenarios can be produced, and risk cumuli quantified, for given portfolios, composed of wherever located risks.

  17. Generating Random Earthquake Events for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeVeque, Randall J.; Waagan, Knut; González, Frank I.; Rim, Donsub; Lin, Guang

    2016-12-01

    To perform probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for subduction zone earthquakes, it is necessary to start with a catalog of possible future events along with the annual probability of occurrence, or a probability distribution of such events that can be easily sampled. For near-field events, the distribution of slip on the fault can have a significant effect on the resulting tsunami. We present an approach to defining a probability distribution based on subdividing the fault geometry into many subfaults and prescribing a desired covariance matrix relating slip on one subfault to slip on any other subfault. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of this matrix are then used to define a Karhunen-Loève expansion for random slip patterns. This is similar to a spectral representation of random slip based on Fourier series but conforms to a general fault geometry. We show that only a few terms in this series are needed to represent the features of the slip distribution that are most important in tsunami generation, first with a simple one-dimensional example where slip varies only in the down-dip direction and then on a portion of the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

  18. Scout: orbit analysis and hazard assessment for NEOCP objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnocchia, Davide; Chesley, Steven R.; Chamberlin, Alan B.

    2016-10-01

    It typically takes a few days for a newly discovered asteroid to be officially recognized as a real object. During this time, the tentative discovery is published on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) until additional observations confirm that the object is a real asteroid rather than an observational artifact or an artificial object. Also, NEOCP objects could have a limited observability window and yet be scientifically interesting, e.g., radar and lightcurve targets, mini-moons (temporary Earth captures), mission accessible targets, close approachers or even impactors. For instance, the only two asteroids discovered before an impact, 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA, both reached the Earth less than a day after discovery. For these reasons we developed Scout, an automated system that provides an orbital and hazard assessment for NEOCP objects within minutes after the observations are available. Scout's rapid analysis increases the chances of securing the trajectory of interesting NEOCP objects before the ephemeris uncertainty grows too large or the observing geometry becomes unfavorable. The generally short observation arcs, perhaps only a few hours or even less, lead severe degeneracies in the orbit estimation process. To overcome these degeneracies Scout relies on systematic ranging, a technique that derives possible orbits by scanning a grid in the poorly constrained space of topocentric range and range rate, while the plane-of-sky position and motion are directly tied to the recorded observations. This scan allows us to derive a distribution of the possible orbits and in turn identify the NEOCP objects of most interest to prioritize followup efforts. In particular, Scout ranks objects according to the likelihood of an impact, estimates the close approach distance, the Earth-relative minimum orbit intersection distance and v-infinity, and computes scores to identify objects more likely to be an NEO, a km-sized NEO, a Potentially

  19. Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Feyen, Luc; Russo, Simone; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Outten, Stephen; Migliavacca, Mirco; Bianchi, Alessandra; Rojas, Rodrigo; Cid, Alba

    2016-04-01

    While reported losses of climate-related hazards are at historically high levels, climate change is likely to enhance the risk posed by extreme weather events. Several regions are likely to be exposed to multiple climate hazards, yet their modeling in a joint scheme is still at the early stages. A multi-hazard framework to map exposure to multiple climate extremes in Europe along the twenty-first century is hereby presented. Using a coherent ensemble of climate projections, changes in the frequency of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, streamflow droughts, wildfires and windstorms are evaluated. Corresponding variations in expected annual exposure allow for an objective comparison of hazards described by different process characteristics and metrics. Projected changes in exposure depict important variations in hazard scenarios, especially those linked to rising temperatures, and spatial patterns largely modulated by local climate conditions. Results show that Europe will likely face a progressive increase in overall climate hazard with a prominent spatial gradient towards south-western regions mainly driven by the rise of heat waves, droughts and wildfires. Key hotspots emerge particularly along coastlines and in floodplains, often highly populated and economically pivotal, where floods and windstorms could be critical in combination with other climate hazards. Projected increases in exposure will be larger for very extreme events due to their pronounced changes in frequency. Results of this appraisal provide useful input for forthcoming European disaster risk and adaptation policy.

  20. Assessing the Seismic Potential Hazard of the Makran Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frohling, E.; Szeliga, W. M.; Melbourne, T. I.; Abolghasem, A.; Lodi, S. H.

    2013-12-01

    . Assessment of GPS data, paleoseismic history, and convergence rates indicate that the western half has been active in the past and may be accumulating strain at a rate comparable to the eastern half and should be capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes. As this is the first fault coupling model to be assessed in this region, our study provides a good initial model for future seismic and tsunami hazards modeling and planning for Pakistan, Iran, India, and the Arabian Peninsula.

  1. Hazard classification assessment for the High Voltage Initiator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cogan, J.D.

    1994-04-19

    An investigation was conducted to determine whether the High Voltage Initiator (Sandia p number 395710; Navy NAVSEA No. 6237177) could be assigned a Department of Transportation (DOT) hazard classification of ``IGNITERS, 1.4G, UN0325`` under Code of Federal Regulations, 49 CFR 173.101, when packaged per Mound drawing NXB911442. A hazard classification test was performed, and the test data led to a recommended hazard classification of ``IGNITERS, 1.4G, UN0325,`` based on guidance outlined in DOE Order 1540.2 and 49 CFR 173.56.

  2. Global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) in continental Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peizen Zhang [China Seismological Bureau, Beijing (Switzerland). Inst. of Geology; Zhixian Yang [China Seismological Bureau, Beijing (Switzerland). Inst. of Crustal Dynamics; Gupta, H.K.; Bathia, S.C. [National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad (India); Shedlock, K.M. [United States Geological Survey, Golden, CO (United States)

    1999-12-01

    The regional hazard mapping for the whole Eastern Asia was coordinated by the SSB Regional Centre in Beijing originating from the expansion of the test area initially established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar-Bangladesh, in coordination with the other Regional Centres (JIPE, Moscow and AGSO, Canberra) and with the direct assistance of the USGS. All Eastern Asian countries have participated directly in the this regional effort, with the additional of Japan, for which an existing national hazard map was incorporated. The regional hazard depicts the expected peak ground acceleration with 10% exceedance probability in 50 years.

  3. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP in continental Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Bhatia

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The regional hazard mapping for the whole Eastern Asia was coordinated by the SSB Regional Centre in Beijing, originating from the expansion of the test area initially established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar- Bangla Dash, in coordination with the other Regional Centres (JIPE, Moscow, and AGSO, Canberra and with the direct assistance of the USGS. All Eastern Asian countries have participated directly in this regional effort, with the addition of Japan, for which an existing national hazard map was incorporated. The regional hazard depicts the expected peak ground acceleration with 10% exceedance probability in 50 years.

  4. A multi-scale risk assessment for tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part 2: Vulnerability and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaini, C.; Biass, S.; Galderisi, A.; Bonadonna, C.; Folch, A.; Smith, K.; Höskuldsson, A.

    2014-08-01

    We perform a multi-scale impact assessment of tephra fallout and dispersal from explosive volcanic activity in Iceland. A companion paper (Biass et al., 2014; "A multi-scale risk assessment of tephra fallout and airborne concentration from multiple Icelandic volcanoes - Part I: hazard assessment") introduces a multi-scale probabilistic assessment of tephra hazard based on selected eruptive scenarios at four Icelandic volcanoes (Hekla, Askja, Eyjafjallajökull and Katla) and presents probabilistic hazard maps for tephra accumulation in Iceland and tephra dispersal across Europe. Here, we present the associated vulnerability and impact assessment that describes the importance of single features at national and European levels and considers several vulnerability indicators for tephra dispersal and deposition. At the national scale, we focus on physical, systemic and economic vulnerability of Iceland to tephra fallout, whereas at the European scale we focus on the systemic vulnerability of the air traffic system to tephra dispersal. This is the first vulnerability and impact assessment analysis of this type and, although it does not include all the aspects of physical and systemic vulnerability, it allows for identifying areas on which further specific analysis should be performed. Results include vulnerability maps for Iceland and European airspace and allow for the qualitative identification of the impacts at both scales in the case of an eruption occurring. Maps produced at the national scale show that tephra accumulation associated with all eruptive scenarios considered can disrupt the main electricity network, in particular in relation to an eruption of Askja. Results also show that several power plants would be affected if an eruption occurred at Hekla, Askja or Katla, causing a substantial systemic impact due to their importance for the Icelandic economy. Moreover, the Askja and Katla eruptive scenarios considered could have substantial impacts on agricultural

  5. Seismic hazard assessment for Myanmar: Earthquake model database, ground-motion scenarios, and probabilistic assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Thant, M.; Maung Maung, P.; Sieh, K.

    2015-12-01

    We have constructed an earthquake and fault database, conducted a series of ground-shaking scenarios, and proposed seismic hazard maps for all of Myanmar and hazard curves for selected cities. Our earthquake database integrates the ISC, ISC-GEM and global ANSS Comprehensive Catalogues, and includes harmonized magnitude scales without duplicate events. Our active fault database includes active fault data from previous studies. Using the parameters from these updated databases (i.e., the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, slip rate, maximum magnitude and the elapse time of last events), we have determined the earthquake recurrence models of seismogenic sources. To evaluate the ground shaking behaviours in different tectonic regimes, we conducted a series of tests by matching the modelled ground motions to the felt intensities of earthquakes. Through the case of the 1975 Bagan earthquake, we determined that Atkinson and Moore's (2003) scenario using the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) fits the behaviours of the subduction events best. Also, the 2011 Tarlay and 2012 Thabeikkyin events suggested the GMPEs of Akkar and Cagnan (2010) fit crustal earthquakes best. We thus incorporated the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions based on Vs30 (the average shear-velocity down to 30 m depth) from analysis of topographic slope and microtremor array measurements to assess seismic hazard. The hazard is highest in regions close to the Sagaing Fault and along the Western Coast of Myanmar as seismic sources there have earthquakes occur at short intervals and/or last events occurred a long time ago. The hazard curves for the cities of Bago, Mandalay, Sagaing, Taungoo and Yangon show higher hazards for sites close to an active fault or with a low Vs30, e.g., the downtown of Sagaing and Shwemawdaw Pagoda in Bago.

  6. Chapter 5. Assessing the Aquatic Hazards of Veterinary Medicines

    Science.gov (United States)

    In recent years, there has been increasing awareness of the widespread distribution of low concentrations of veterinary medicine products and other pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. While aquatic hazard for a select group of veterinary medicines has received previous s...

  7. Chapter 5. Assessing the Aquatic Hazards of Veterinary Medicines

    Science.gov (United States)

    In recent years, there has been increasing awareness of the widespread distribution of low concentrations of veterinary medicine products and other pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. While aquatic hazard for a select group of veterinary medicines has received previous s...

  8. Hazard assessment of explosive volcanism at Somma-Vesuvius

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    G. Mastrolorenzo; L. Pappalardo

    2010-01-01

      A probabilistic approach based on the available volcanological data on past Somma-Vesuvius eruptions has been developed to produce hazard-zone maps for fallout, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs...

  9. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  10. Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Huan [University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA; Tang, Qiuhong [Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Kirschbaum, Dalia B. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA; Ward, Philip [Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands

    2016-01-01

    Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

  11. A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholz, S.; Sela, E.; Blaha, L.; Braunbeck, T.; Galay-Burgos, M.; Garcia-Franco, M.; Guinea, J.; Kluver, N.; Schirmer, K.; Tanneberger, K.; Tobor-Kaplon, M.; Witters, H.; Belanger, S.; Benfenati, E.; Creton, S.; Cronin, M.T.D.; Eggen, R.I.L.; Embry, M.; Ekman, D.; Gourmelon, A.; Halder, M.; Hardy, B.; Hartung, T.; Hubesch, B.; Jungmann, D.; Lampi, M.A.; Lee, van L.; Leonard, M.; Kuster, E.; Lillicrap, A.; Luckenbach, T.; Murk, A.J.; Navas, J.M.; Peijnenburg, W.; Repetto, G.; Salinas, E.; Schuurmann, G.; Spielmann, H.; Tollefsen, K.E.; Walter-Rohde, S.; Whale, G.; Wheeler, J.R.; Winter, M.J.

    2013-01-01

    Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing

  12. The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Egozcue

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute.

  13. Preliminary tsunami hazard assessment in British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Insua, T. L.; Grilli, A. R.; Grilli, S. T.; Shelby, M. R.; Wang, K.; Gao, D.; Cherniawsky, J. Y.; Harris, J. C.; Heesemann, M.; McLean, S.; Moran, K.

    2015-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC), a not-for-profit initiative by the University of Victoria that operates several cabled ocean observatories, is developing a new generation of ocean observing systems (referred to as Smart Ocean Systems™), involving advanced undersea observation technologies, data networks and analytics. The ONC Tsunami project is a Smart Ocean Systems™ project that addresses the need for a near-field tsunami detection system for the coastal areas of British Columbia. Recent studies indicate that there is a 40-80% probability over the next 50 for a significant tsunami impacting the British Columbia (BC) coast with runups higher than 1.5 m. The NEPTUNE cabled ocean observatory, operated by ONC off of the west coast of British Columbia, could be used to detect near-field tsunami events with existing instrumentation, including seismometers and bottom pressure recorders. As part of this project, new tsunami simulations are underway for the BC coast. Tsunami propagation is being simulated with the FUNWAVE-TVD model, for a suite of new source models representing Cascadia megathrust rupture scenarios. Simulations are performed by one-way coupling in a series of nested model grids (from the source to the BC coast), whose bathymetry was developed based on digital elevation maps (DEMs) of the area, to estimate both tsunami arrival time and coastal runup/inundation for different locations. Besides inundation, maps of additional parameters such as maximum current are being developed, that will aid in tsunami hazard assessment and risk mitigation, as well as developing evacuation plans. We will present initial results of this work for the Port Alberni inlet, in particular Ucluelet, based on new source models developed using the best available data. We will also present a model validation using measurements of the 2011 transpacific Tohoku-oki tsunami recorded in coastal BC by several instruments from various US and Canadian agencies.

  14. Implementation of external hazards in Probabilistic Safety Assessment for nuclear power plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Manorma; Klug, Joakim; Raimond, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    The paper will focus on the discussion on implementation of external hazards in the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methods for the extreme external hazards mainly focused on Seismic, Flooding, Meteorological Hazards (e.g. Storm, Extreme temperature, snow pack), Biological infestation, Lightening hazards, Accidental Aircraft crash and man- made hazards including natural external fire and external explosion. This will include discussion on identification of some good practices on the implementation of external hazards in Level 1 PSA, with a perspective of development of extended PSA and introduction of relevant modelling for external hazards in an existing Level 1 PSA. This paper is associated to the European project ASAMPSAE (www.asampsa.eu) which gathers more than 30 organizations (industry, research, safety control) from Europe, US and Japan and which aims at identifying some meaningful practices to extend the scope and the quality of the existing probabilistic safety analysis developed for nuclear power plants.

  15. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  16. Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the DOE Hanford Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snow, Robert L.; Ross, Steven B.

    2011-09-15

    The purpose of this review is to assess the need for updating Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) assessments for the DOE's Hanford Site, as required by DOE Order 420.1B Chapter IV, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, based on significant changes in state-of-the-art NPH assessment methodology or site-specific information. This review is an update and expansion to the September 2010 review of PNNL-19751, Review of Natural Phenomena Hazard (NPH) Assessments for the Hanford 200 Areas (Non-Seismic).

  17. Generic framework for meso-scale assessment of climate change hazards in coastal environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all...... coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem...... disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system includes a total of 565 individual hazard evaluations, each graduated into four different hazard levels based on a scientific literature review. The framework uses a simple assessment methodology with limited data...

  18. Hazard Assessment of Chemical Air Contaminants Measured in Residences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Logue, J.M.; McKone, T.E.; Sherman, M. H.; Singer, B.C.

    2010-05-10

    Identifying air pollutants that pose a potential hazard indoors can facilitate exposure mitigation. In this study, we compiled summary results from 77 published studies reporting measurements of chemical pollutants in residences in the United States and in countries with similar lifestyles. These data were used to calculate representative mid-range and upper bound concentrations relevant to chronic exposures for 267 pollutants and representative peak concentrations relevant to acute exposures for 5 activity-associated pollutants. Representative concentrations are compared to available chronic and acute health standards for 97 pollutants. Fifteen pollutants appear to exceed chronic health standards in a large fraction of homes. Nine other pollutants are identified as potential chronic health hazards in a substantial minority of homes and an additional nine are identified as potential hazards in a very small percentage of homes. Nine pollutants are identified as priority hazards based on the robustness of measured concentration data and the fraction of residences that appear to be impacted: acetaldehyde; acrolein; benzene; 1,3-butadiene; 1,4-dichlorobenzene; formaldehyde; naphthalene; nitrogen dioxide; and PM{sub 2.5}. Activity-based emissions are shown to pose potential acute health hazards for PM{sub 2.5}, formaldehyde, CO, chloroform, and NO{sub 2}.

  19. The western Aeolian Islands volcanoes (South Tyrrhenian Sea): highlight on their eruptive history based on K-Ar dating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leocat, E.; Gillot, P.-Y.; Peccerillo, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Aeolian Islands volcanoes are located in southern Tyrrhenian Sea on the northern continental margin of the Calabro-Peloritan basement. The Stromboli, Panarea and Vulcano volcanoes of the half eastern sector are well studied as they are still active and they represent high volcanic hazard. While stratigraphic studies were carried out on volcanoes of the western sector, radiometric ages are lacking to well understand their eruptive history. Therefore, new geochronological and geochemical data were obtained for Alicudi, Filicudi, Salina and Lipari western volcanoes. The aim is to establish a complete time framework of the volcanism and to study possible time-related variations of magma compositions. The 37 new ages were obtained using K-Ar Cassignol-Gillot technique that is suitable for dating Quaternary volcanic rocks. The new geochemical data consist of whole rock major and trace elements analysis on dated samples. Our new sets of data give evidence that the Aeolian Islands are young volcanoes emplaced within the last 300 ka. The oldest products outcrop at Filicudi, Salina and Lipari. Te first emerged activity of Alicudi volcano occurred 120 ka ago. While quiescence activity of at least 50 ka is recognized at Filicudi and Lipari, and potentially at Salina, the volcanic activity of Alicudi would have been relatively continuous. These whole volcanoes were active within the last 30 ka which has to be considered for volcanic hazard assessment. At the scale of each volcano, the degree of differentiation increase roughly through time, except at Filicudi where the ultimate products correspond to mafic magma. At the scale of the archipelago, this process increases from western Alicudi and Filicudi volcanoes, where andesitic magmas are the most evolved magmas, to central Salina and Lipari volcanoes, where rhyolitic magmas are emitted during explosive eruption. Moreover, pulses of magmatic activity would have occurred around 30-40 and 110-120 ka when the four volcanoes

  20. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Greece – Part 3: Deaggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G-A. Tselentis

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The present third part of the study, concerning the evaluation of earthquake hazard in Greece in terms of various ground motion parameters, deals with the deaggregation of the obtained results The seismic hazard maps presented for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2 s and 1.0 s, with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, were deaggregated in order to quantify the dominant scenario. There are three basic components of each dominant scenario: earthquake magnitude (M, source-to-site distance (R and epsilon (ε. We present deaggregation maps of mean and mode values of M-R-ε triplet showing the contribution to hazard over a dense grid.

  1. Volcano-tectonic framework of a linear volcanic ridge (Faial-Pico ridge, Azores Archipelago) assessed by paleomagnetic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Pedro; Henry, Bernard; Lopes, Ana; Marques, Fernando; Madureira, Pedro; Hildenbrand, Anthony; Madeira, José; Nunes, João; Roxerová, Zuzana

    2016-04-01

    The morphology of volcanic oceanic islands results from the alternation between constructive and destructive episodes. In this study directional analyses obtained from paleomagnetic studies are used as a tool to achieve relative rotations related with destructive processes intra the Pico-Faial linear volcanic ridge (Azores archipelago; North Atlantic). A total of 45 lava flows and one dyke were sampled preferable along lava piles though to record volcano-tectonic movements. The respective paleomagnetic results are able to show important rotations within the two islands that resemble the onshore signature of this ridge. Paleomagnetic directions retrieved here mostly show elliptical distribution of ChRM's sub-perpendicular to volcanic ridge. Such distribution agrees with the development of listric faults plunging towards the axis of the volcanic ridge at Faial Island and towards offshore at the Topo complex of Pico Island. In Faial Island, the "collapse" related to the magma chamber decompression was accommodated by brittle deformation with listric faults plunging toward the core of the formed graben. On Pico Island, this collapse was probably of less importance and simply accommodated by a local tilting. Listric faults then should have been developed, in the opposite direction (compared to Faial Island case) relatively to the collapsed area, to compensate a relative local uplift. Accordingly paleomagnetic studies appear as key data to retrieve intra-islands deformations due to the volcano-tectonic balance responsible for the construction and destruction of such unstable buildings. This important tool to address georisks and natural hazards remains poorly explored and need to be strongly developed. The author wish to acknowledge MEGAHAZARDS (PTDC/CTE-GIX/108149/2008) and REGENA (PTDC/GEO-FIQ/3648/2012) projects for its major contribution without which this work wouldn't be possible. Publication supported by project FCT UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

  2. Vanishing Volcano

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨树仁

    1995-01-01

    Mauna Loa, the world’s largest active volcano,is sinking into the Pacific Ocean——and it’s taking the main island of Hawaii with it! The problem:The mighty volcano has gained too much weight, says Peter Lipman of the U. S. Geological Survey.

  3. Remote sensing of rainfall for debris-flow hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, G.F.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; ,

    2003-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing of rainfall provide more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Four case studies of abundant debris flows over relatively small areas triggered during intense rainstorms are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. Three examples with rainfall estimates from National Weather Service Doppler radar and one example with rainfall estimates from infrared imagery from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite are compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and with landslide distribution. The advantages and limitations of using remote sensing of rainfall for landslide hazard analysis are discussed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

  4. Hazardous Materials Management and Emergency Response training Center needs assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McGinnis, K.A. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Bolton, P.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Robinson, R.K. [RKR, Inc. (United States)

    1993-09-01

    For the Hanford Site to provide high-quality training using simulated job-site situations to prepare the 4,000 Site workers and 500 emergency responders for known and unknown hazards a Hazardous Materials Management and Emergency Response Training Center is needed. The center will focus on providing classroom lecture as well as hands-on, realistic training. The establishment of the center will create a partnership among the US Department of Energy; its contractors; labor; local, state, and tribal governments; and Xavier and Tulane Universities of Louisiana. This report presents the background, history, need, benefits, and associated costs of the proposed center.

  5. Application of a Cloud Model-Set Pair Analysis in Hazard Assessment for Biomass Gasification Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili

    2017-01-01

    Because a biomass gasification station includes various hazard factors, hazard assessment is needed and significant. In this article, the cloud model (CM) is employed to improve set pair analysis (SPA), and a novel hazard assessment method for a biomass gasification station is proposed based on the cloud model-set pair analysis (CM-SPA). In this method, cloud weight is proposed to be the weight of index. In contrast to the index weight of other methods, cloud weight is shown by cloud descriptors; hence, the randomness and fuzziness of cloud weight will make it effective to reflect the linguistic variables of experts. Then, the cloud connection degree (CCD) is proposed to replace the connection degree (CD); the calculation algorithm of CCD is also worked out. By utilizing the CCD, the hazard assessment results are shown by some normal clouds, and the normal clouds are reflected by cloud descriptors; meanwhile, the hazard grade is confirmed by analyzing the cloud descriptors. After that, two biomass gasification stations undergo hazard assessment via CM-SPA and AHP based SPA, respectively. The comparison of assessment results illustrates that the CM-SPA is suitable and effective for the hazard assessment of a biomass gasification station and that CM-SPA will make the assessment results more reasonable and scientific. PMID:28076440

  6. Application of a Cloud Model-Set Pair Analysis in Hazard Assessment for Biomass Gasification Stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili

    2017-01-01

    Because a biomass gasification station includes various hazard factors, hazard assessment is needed and significant. In this article, the cloud model (CM) is employed to improve set pair analysis (SPA), and a novel hazard assessment method for a biomass gasification station is proposed based on the cloud model-set pair analysis (CM-SPA). In this method, cloud weight is proposed to be the weight of index. In contrast to the index weight of other methods, cloud weight is shown by cloud descriptors; hence, the randomness and fuzziness of cloud weight will make it effective to reflect the linguistic variables of experts. Then, the cloud connection degree (CCD) is proposed to replace the connection degree (CD); the calculation algorithm of CCD is also worked out. By utilizing the CCD, the hazard assessment results are shown by some normal clouds, and the normal clouds are reflected by cloud descriptors; meanwhile, the hazard grade is confirmed by analyzing the cloud descriptors. After that, two biomass gasification stations undergo hazard assessment via CM-SPA and AHP based SPA, respectively. The comparison of assessment results illustrates that the CM-SPA is suitable and effective for the hazard assessment of a biomass gasification station and that CM-SPA will make the assessment results more reasonable and scientific.

  7. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Using a Systems Analysis Approach to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, M.; Eguchi, R. T.

    2015-12-01

    The earthquake hazard mitigation goal is to reduce losses due to severe natural events. The first step is to conduct a Seismic Risk Assessment consisting of 1) hazard estimation, 2) vulnerability analysis, 3) exposure compilation. Seismic hazards include ground deformation, shaking, and inundation. The hazard estimation may be probabilistic or deterministic. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is generally applied to site-specific Risk assessments, but may involve large areas as in a National Seismic Hazard Mapping program. Deterministic hazard assessments are needed for geographically distributed exposure such as lifelines (infrastructure), but may be important for large communities. Vulnerability evaluation includes quantification of fragility for construction or components including personnel. Exposure represents the existing or planned construction, facilities, infrastructure, and population in the affected area. Risk (expected loss) is the product of the quantified hazard, vulnerability (damage algorithm), and exposure which may be used to prepare emergency response plans, retrofit existing construction, or use community planning to avoid hazards. The risk estimate provides data needed to acquire earthquake insurance to assist with effective recovery following a severe event. Earthquake Scenarios used in Deterministic Risk Assessments provide detailed information on where hazards may be most severe, what system components are most susceptible to failure, and to evaluate the combined effects of a severe earthquake to the whole system or community. Casualties (injuries and death) have been the primary factor in defining building codes for seismic-resistant construction. Economic losses may be equally significant factors that can influence proactive hazard mitigation. Large urban earthquakes may produce catastrophic losses due to a cascading of effects often missed in PSHA. Economic collapse may ensue if damaged workplaces, disruption of utilities, and

  8. A Geospatial Web Platform for Natural Hazard Exposure Assessment in the Insurance Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iris, Julien; Chemitte, Jérôme; Napoli, Aldo

    The work of natural hazard exposure assessment involves various geographic data sets (referential, hazard, assets) and various disciplines intended for insurance professionals (catastrophe modeling, prevention engineering). The emergence of Geospatial Web technology induces the emergence of new sets of online services. Mission Risques Naturels (MRN) is a French actor in the mutualization and diffusion of information on natural hazards knowledge and prevention for the general interest of insurance professionals. The MRN Web-GIS platform has been built to address these requirements. This chapter starts by presenting the role of MRN in the network of natural hazard assessment. It then presents Geospatial Web tools for natural hazard exposure assessment as well as the system architecture of the MRN Web-GIS platform, including all its services.

  9. Training Medical Students about Hazardous Drinking Using Simple Assessment Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo, Jesús López-Torres; Pretel, Fernando Andrés; Bravo, Beatriz Navarro; Rabadan, Francisco Escobar; Serrano Selva, Juan Pedro; Latorre Postigo, Jose Miguel; Martínez, Ignacio Párraga

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine the ability of medical students to identify hazardous drinkers using screening tools recommended in clinical practice. Design: Observational cross-sectional study. Setting: Faculty of Medicine of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain. Method: The medical students learnt to use Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and…

  10. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for a Site in Eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Vikram; Arcos, Maria E. M.; Alcinov, Trajce; Lavine, Alexis; Youngs, Robert; Roussel, Patrick; Mullin, Derek

    2016-12-01

    Unlike probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), there is not a well-established methodology for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). The PTHA methodology presented is similar to the widely used PSHA methodology for ground motion, and incorporates both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in calculating the probability of exceeding runup and drawdown values produced by tsunamigenic sources. Evaluating tsunami hazard is more difficult in locations such as the eastern coastline of Canada because of low tsunami recurrence rates and few historical examples. In this study, we evaluated the hazard from local and far-field earthquake and landslide tsunamigenic sources at a site on the Bay of Fundy in New Brunswick, Canada. These sources included local faults, the Puerto Rico subduction zone, fault sources in the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary region, and landslides on the Canadian continental slope and in the Canary Islands. Using a new PTHA methodology that is closely linked to well-established PSHA methodology combined with tide stage probability, we calculated that the return period for a wave runup exceeding the tidal range of +4 m level above mean sea level (highest astronomical tide) is approximately 14,500 years.

  11. The Prodigies of The Albano Lake During Roman Age and Natural Hazard Assessment At Roma, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funiciello, R.; Giordano, G.; de Rita, D.

    Roma is built just 20 km to the northwest of the Pleistocene Colli Albani volcano, but is believed not exposed to relevant natural hazards, except for the Tiber river flood- ings, and local amplification of seismic waves from distal earthquakes. This belief has generally induced modern historians and geologists to discard as SmythologicalT the & cedil;many references to natural prodigies that are reported by many Roman-age historians. Recent studies have demonstrated that the Albano maar, the youngest volcanic cen- tre of the Colli Albani volcano and presently filled by a 175 m deep lake, protracted its activity to the Holocene triggering several catastrophic lahar events, likely related to lake withdrawal, the deposits of which are exposed to the southwest of Roma and reach its periphery. This finding youngs the history of the volcano and makes it rele- vant to pre-historic settlements, which ScarefullyT avoided the Albano maar slopes up & cedil;to the Bronze age. What is still unknown, though, is whether the lake experienced such fluctuations and overspills during historic times. Several Roman authors such as Ti- tus Livius, Dionigi d'Alicarnasso, Plutarco, Germanico, and many others wrote about the then well known 398 BC prodigious event, when, during the war between Roma and the Etruscan city of Veio, the gods anger caused the sudden rise and overspill of the Albano lake, reported as unrelated to climatic events, and the destructive flooding of the countryside. After that event Romans actually built a tunnel-drain which still operates regulating the lake level at 293 m a.s.l., 70 m below the maar rim elevation. Should those chronicles be truthful, we can join the geologic observation of Holocene lahar deposits from lake withdrawal with historical lake withdrawals, reassessing the natural hazard for the city of Roma under a point of view never explored before. This paper carefully explores the historical credibility of the 398 BC lake overspill event and its

  12. Volcano shapes, entropies, and eruption probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Agust; Mohajeri, Nahid

    2014-05-01

    assess the probability of eruptions in relation to the shape of the volcano. These methods can also be applied to the probability of injected dykes reaching the surface in a volcano. We show how the thickness distributions of dykes can be used to estimated their height (dip-dimension) distributions and, for a given magma source and volcano geometry, their probability of erupting. From the calculated energy (mainly elastic and thermal) of the host volcano, and other constraints, the maximum-entropy method can be used to improve the reliability of the assessment of the likelihood of eruption during an unrest period. Becerril, L., Galindo, I., Gudmundsson, A., Morales, J.M., 2013. Depth of origin of magma in eruptions. Sci. Rep., 3 : 2762, doi: 10.1038/srep02762 Gudmundsson, A., 2012 Strengths and strain energies of volcanic edifices: implications for eruptions, collapse calderas, and landslides. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2241-2258. Gudmundsson, A., Mohajeri, N., 2013. Relations between the scaling exponents, entropies, and energies of fracture networks. Bull. Geol. Soc. France, 184, 377-387. Mohajeri, N., Gudmundsson, A., 2012. Entropies and scaling exponents of street and fracture networks. Entropy, 14, 800-833.

  13. Comparison of the Rapid Entire Body Assessment and the New Zealand Manual Handling 'Hazard Control Record', for assessment of manual handling hazards in the supermarket industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, Alison

    2005-01-01

    This is a case study comparing the use of two different assessment tools (Rapid Entire Body Assessment versus New Zealand Manual Handling Hazard Control Record) to assess, plan and implement changes in manual handling practices in the supermarket industry. Existing manual handling practices being used within these supermarkets were assessed using each of these tools. The most hazardous tasks were revised to improve work methods and reviewed again using both tools, to determine the usefulness and effectiveness of these tools. The process generated considerable discussion regarding the benefits and drawbacks of each tool. The usefulness of each tool appears dependant on the reason for assessment and the anticipated outcome. REBA may be more useful if specific ergonomic or biomechanical changes are being implemented to decrease risk of work-related injury (particularly if an objective numeric score is required for re-assessment following modifications, to determine their effectiveness). The New Zealand Code of Practice for Manual Handling 'Hazard Control Record' Risk Score analysis process lacks specificity and objectivity, however it is less reductionistic and takes into account many factors other than biomechanics and ergonomics. It directs the user toward implementing controls, which are thorough, multi-factorial and useful to control hazards relating to several other areas, including task, load, environment, people and management factors.

  14. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  15. Research on safety assessment of gas explosion hazard in heading face based on BP neural network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TIAN Shui-cheng; ZHU Li-jun; CHEN Yong-gang; WANG Li

    2005-01-01

    According to hazard theory and the principle of selecting assessment index,combining the causes and mechanism of gas explosion, established assessment index system of gas explosion in heading face. Based on the method of gray clustering, principle of BP neural network and characters of gas explosion in heading face, safety assessment procedural diagram of BP neural network on gas explosion hazard in heading face is designed. Meanwhile, concrete heading face of the gas explosion hazard is assessed by safety assessment method of BP neural network and grades of comprehensive safety assessment are got. The static and dynamic safety assessment can be achieved by this method. It is practical to improve safety management and to develop safety assessment technology in coalmine.

  16. THE METHOD OF ASSESSING ROCK BURSTING HAZARD IN MINING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna MANOWSKA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a concept of forecasting accident risk during longwall extraction in crump-risk conditions. In Polish mines rock burst hazard can be described as high compared to other mines around the world. It's related to increase of depth of longwall field operation, preparation works, including drilling of mine face pavements which leads to systematic deterioration of geological and mining conditions. Depletion of coal is also the reason why mines operate in high mining tremor risk conditions. Mines more and more often operate in decks, where there is large number of edges and remains of older decks. Rocks bursts still remain one of the most dangerous natural hazards and therefore are fundamental prob-lem and have the greatest impact on safety in mining industry. The proposed method for forecasting accidents and loss-es in people and goods can contribute to improvement of work organization methods and mine safety management system.

  17. NRL Industrial Chemical Assessment for Hazard, Probability, and Biomarker Prioritization

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-15

    hazard due to the fact that inhalation routes of chemical exposures would predominately be the most likely to cause wide spread exposures. 3.1.3...selection of techniques . Move containers from fire area if you can do it without risk. Do not move damaged packages; move undamaged packages out of...fire zone. SMALL FIRE: Dry chemical, CO2, water spray or regular foam. LARGE FIRE: Water spray, fog ( flooding amounts). (ERG, 2012) 3 ALUMINUM

  18. Regional landslide hazard assessment in a deep uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2017-04-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around future rainfall conditions. We demonstrate how GSA can used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  19. Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment Considering Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, S.; Holcombe, E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Landslides have many negative economic and societal impacts, including the potential for significant loss of life and damage to infrastructure. These risks are likely to be exacerbated in the future by a combination of climatic and socio-economic factors. Climate change, for example, is expected to increase the occurrence of rainfall-triggered landslides, because a warmer atmosphere tends to produce more high intensity rainfall events. Prediction of future changes in rainfall, however, is subject to high levels of uncertainty, making it challenging for decision-makers to identify the areas and populations that are most vulnerable to landslide hazards. In this study, we demonstrate how a physically-based model - the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model (CHASM) - can be used together with Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore the underlying factors controlling the spatial distribution of landslide risks across a regional landscape, while also accounting for deep uncertainty around potential future rainfall triggers. We demonstrate how GSA can be used to analyse CHASM which in turn represents the spatial variability of hillslope characteristics in the study region, while accounting for other uncertainties. Results are presented in the form of landslide hazard maps, utilising high-resolution digital elevation datasets for a case study in St Lucia in the Caribbean. Our findings about spatial landslide hazard drivers have important implications for data collection approaches and for long-term decision-making about land management practices.

  20. Natural hazards and technological risk in Russia: the relation assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Almost every natural disaster is accompanied by some sort of technological one. A number of studies also show a correlation between technological disasters and various global processes such as solar disturbances, geophysical field variation etc. In this study we attempted to ascertain and codify the relationship between different types of technological disasters and natural hazards. Two types of natural hazards were found, based on their genesis, distribution in time, and impact pattern on the technosphere. Solar and geomagnetic disturbances generally affect technological risk through the failure of automatic machinery and the reduction of operator reliability. They increase the probability of transport accidents, fires, and catastrophic toxic emissions. These types of technological disasters are widely prevalent throughout Russia and in all federal regions. Geological, climatic, hydrological, and other natural hazardous processes increase technological risk through direct mechanical impacts. Their occurrence in space and time depends on the character of the natural process and the specific regional environment. The total number and proportion of technological disasters in federal regions results mainly from the concentration of industrial units and their type, as well as the local natural and social environment. Temporal changes in the number of technological disasters of different groups depend on the prevailing type of natural processes.

  1. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2017-07-01

    Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  2. Assessment of human health hazard due to metal uptake via fish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of human health hazard due to metal uptake via fish consumption from ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... It is well known that fishes can accumulate variety of toxic chemicals including persistent ...

  3. Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment on the Northern Slope of Mt. Changbai, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Zhenghua; ZHANG Yanbin; Yoshiharu ISHIKAWA; Hiroyuki NAKAMURA

    2008-01-01

    Landslide hazard and risk assessment on the northern slope of Mt. Changbai,a well-known tourist attraction near the North Korean-Chinese border, are assessed. This study is divided into two parts, namely, landslide hazard zonation and risk assessment. The 1992 Anbalagan and Singh method of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) was modified and used in this area. In this way, an Associative Analysis Method was used in representative areas to get a measure for controlling factors (slope gradient, relative relief, vegetation, geology, discontinuity development, weak layer thickness and ground water). For the membership degree of factor to slope failure, the middle range of limited values was used to calculate LHZ. Based on an estimation of the potential damage from slope failure,a reasonable risk assessment map was obtained using the relationship of potential damage and probable hazard to aid future planning and prediction and to avert loss of life.

  4. Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

  5. Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment of Naturals Hazards in the Caldera of Mount Bambouto (West Cameroon)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zangmo Tefogoum, G.; Kagou Dongmo, A.; Nkouathio, D. G.; Wandji, P.

    2009-04-01

    Mount Bambouto is polygenic stratovolcano of the Cameroon Volcanic Line, build between 21 Ma and 4,5Ma (Nkouathio et al., 2008). It is situated at about 200 km NE of mount Cameroon, at 09°55' and 10°15' East and, 05°25' and 05°50' Nord. This volcano covers an area of 500 Km2 and culminates at 2740 m at Meletan hill and bears a collapse caldera (13 x 8 km). Fissural, extrusive and explosive dynamism are responsible of the construction in three main stages this volcano including the edification of a sommital large rim caldera. Mount Bambouto structure gives rise to different natural hazards, of volcanological origin and meteorological origin. In the past time, landslides, floodings, firebush, blocks collapse took place in this area with catastrophic impact on the population. New research program had been carried out in the caldera concerning qualitative and quantitative evaluation of natural risks and catastrophes. The main factors of instability are rain, structure of the basement, slopes, lithology and anthropic activities; particularly, the occurrence of exceptional rainfall due to global change are relevant; this gives opportunity to draw landslides hazards zonation map of the Bambouto caldera which is the main risk in this area. We evaluate the financial potential of the caldera base on the average income of breeding, farming, school fees and the cost of houses and equipments for each family. The method of calculation revealed that, the yearly economy of the mounts Bambouto caldera represents about 2 billions FCFA. Some recommendations have been made in order to prevent and reduced the potential losses and the number of victims in particular by better land use planning. These help us to estimate the importance of destruction of the environment and biodiversity in case of catastrophes. We conclude that in the Bambouto caldera there is moderate to high probability that destructive phenomena due to landslides occurs within the upcoming years with enormous

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  7. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    OpenAIRE

    L. Becerril; S. Bartolini; R. Sobradelo; Martí, J.; Morales, J.M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for territorial planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure qualitative and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterization of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of differ...

  8. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    OpenAIRE

    L. Becerril; S. Bartolini; R. Sobradelo; Martí, J.; Morales, J.M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-01-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different erupt...

  9. Challenges in seismic hazard assessment: Analyses of ground motion modelling and seismotectonic sources

    OpenAIRE

    Sørensen, Mathilde Bøttger

    2006-01-01

    Seismic hazard assessment has an important societal impact in describing levels of ground motions to be expected in a given region in the future. Challenges in seismic hazard assessment are closely associated with the fact that different regions, due to their differences in seismotectonics setting (and hence in earthquake occurrence) as well as socioeconomic conditions, require different and innovative approaches. One of the most important aspects in this regard is the seismici...

  10. Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment for an Automated Unmanned Protective Vehicle

    OpenAIRE

    Stolte, Torben; Bagschik, Gerrit; Reschka, Andreas; Maurer, and Markus

    2017-01-01

    For future application of automated vehicles in public traffic, ensuring functional safety is essential. In this context, a hazard analysis and risk assessment is an important input for designing functionally vehicle automation systems. In this contribution, we present a detailed hazard analysis and risk assessment (HARA) according to the ISO 26262 standard for a specific Level 4 application, namely an unmanned protective vehicle operated without human supervision for motorway hard shoulder r...

  11. Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Xu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

  12. Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza; Sazjini, Mohammad; Shahaky, Mohsen; Tajrishi, Fatemeh Zahedi; Khanmohammadi, Leila

    2014-07-01

    Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.

  13. Santa Maria Volcano, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    The eruption of Santa Maria volcano in 1902 was one of the largest eruptions of the 20th century, forming a large crater on the mountain's southwest flank. Since 1922, a lava-dome complex, Santiaguito, has been forming in the 1902 crater. Growth of the dome has produced pyroclastic flows as recently as the 2001-they can be identified in this image. The city of Quezaltenango (approximately 90,000 people in 1989) sits below the 3772 m summit. The volcano is considered dangerous because of the possibility of a dome collapse such as one that occurred in 1929, which killed about 5000 people. A second hazard results from the flow of volcanic debris into rivers south of Santiaguito, which can lead to catastrophic flooding and mud flows. More information on this volcano can be found at web sites maintained by the Smithsonian Institution, Volcano World, and Michigan Tech University. ISS004-ESC-7999 was taken 17 February 2002 from the International Space Station using a digital camera. The image is provided by the Earth Sciences and Image Analysis Laboratory at Johnson Space Center. Searching and viewing of additional images taken by astronauts and cosmonauts is available at the NASA-JSC Gateway to

  14. Dante's volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    This video contains two segments: one a 0:01:50 spot and the other a 0:08:21 feature. Dante 2, an eight-legged walking machine, is shown during field trials as it explores the inner depths of an active volcano at Mount Spurr, Alaska. A NASA sponsored team at Carnegie Mellon University built Dante to withstand earth's harshest conditions, to deliver a science payload to the interior of a volcano, and to report on its journey to the floor of a volcano. Remotely controlled from 80-miles away, the robot explored the inner depths of the volcano and information from onboard video cameras and sensors was relayed via satellite to scientists in Anchorage. There, using a computer generated image, controllers tracked the robot's movement. Ultimately the robot team hopes to apply the technology to future planetary missions.

  15. Hazard Assessment of Debris-Flow along the Baicha River in Heshigten Banner, Inner Mongolia, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Chen; Xu, Peihua; Chen, Jianping; Zheng, Lianjing; Niu, Cencen

    2016-01-01

    This study focused on a cloud model approach for considering debris-flow hazard assessment, in which the cloud model provided a model for transforming the qualitative and quantitative expressions. Additionally, the entropy method and analytical hierarchy process were united for calculating the parameters weights. The weighting method avoids the disadvantages inherent in using subjective or objective methods alone. Based on the cloud model and component weighting method, a model was established for the analysis of debris-flow hazard assessment. There are 29 debris-flow catchments around the pumped storage power station in the study area located near Zhirui (Inner Mongolia, China). Field survey data and 3S technologies were used for data collection. The results of the cloud model calculation process showed that of the 29 catchments, 25 had low debris-flow hazard assessment, three had moderate hazard assessment, and one had high hazard assessment. The widely used extenics method and field geological surveys were used to validate the proposed approach. This approach shows high potential as a useful tool for debris-flow hazard assessment analysis. Compared with other prediction methods, it avoids the randomness and fuzziness in uncertainty problems, and its prediction results are considered reasonable. PMID:28036079

  16. Hazardous Waste Minimization Assessment: Fort Sam Houston, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Management Office. The contributions made by Ms. Sharon McClellan (FORSCOM); and Mr. Chittaranjan Ray, Mr. Richard Stanbaugh, Mr. Douglas Knowlton, and Ms...Blakesless, Inc. NRS-60 45-60 gal/h 2001 N. Janice Avenue HRS-60 45-60 gal/h Melrose Park. IL 60160 (solvents: TCE, 1.1.1-TCE, PCE) Branson Cleaning Equip...test feedwater. In addition, boiler blowdown liquid mixed with water is a hazardous waste generated periodically. Waste oil blended with virgin fuel

  17. Mechanical coupling between earthquakes, volcanos and landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigl, K. L.; Retina Team

    2003-04-01

    "The eruption began as a large earthquake that triggered a massive landslide that culminated in a violent lateral explosion" [Malone et al., USGS 1981]. The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens taught a very powerful lesson -- that one natural hazard can trigger another. For example, earthquakes have triggered landslides in Papua New Guinea. Similarly, eruptions of Vesuvius are mechanically coupled to earthquakes in the Appenines, just as an inflating magma chamber can trigger earthquakes near Hengill volcano in SW Iceland and on the Izu Peninsula in Japan. The Luzon earthquake may have triggered the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. In many of these cases, the second triggered event caused more damage than the initial one. If we can better understand the mechanical coupling underlying the temporal and spatial correlation of such events, we will improve our assessments of the hazards they pose. The RETINA project has been funded by the European Commission's 5th Framework to study couplings between three classes of natural hazards: earthquakes, landslides, and volcanoes. These three phenomena are linked to and by the stress field in the crust. If the stress increases enough, the material will fail catastrophically. For example, magma injection beneath a volcano can trigger an earthquake by increasing stress on a fault. Increasing shear stress on unconsolidated materials on steep slopes can trigger landslides. Such stress change triggers may also be tectonic (from plate driving forces), hydrological (from heavy rain), or volcanic (magmatic injection). Any of these events can perturb the stress field enough to trigger another event. Indeed, stress changes as small as 0.1 bar (0.01 MPa) suffice to trigger an earthquake. If the medium is close to failure, this small change can increase the Coulomb stress beyond the yield threshold, breaking the material. This quantity is the primary means we will use for describing mechanical coupling. In this paper, we will review several case

  18. Landslide hazard assessment in the Collazzone area, Umbria, Central Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Guzzetti

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the results of the application of a recently proposed model to determine landslide hazard. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be in a given area. For the Collazzone area, in the central Italian Apennines, we prepared a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1941 and 1997 and field surveys conducted in the period between 1998 and 2004. We then partitioned the 79 square kilometres study area into 894 slope units, and obtained the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphology, lithology, structure and land use. For each slope unit, we computed the expected landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the terrain unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming landslide recurrence was constant, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determined the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each slope unit, for different periods. We obtained the probability of landslide size, a proxy for landslide magnitude, by analysing the frequency-area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Lastly, assuming independence, we determined landslide hazard for each slope unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence, and of landslide spatial occurrence.

  19. Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) includes, in its introduction to earthquake rupture forecast maps, the assertion that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities -- from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [3] However, psychology research identifies a large gap between lay and expert perception of risk for various hazards [2], and cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [1,4-6] that people neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probabilities, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [7]. The gap between lay and expert use of probability needs to be recognized more clearly by scientific organizations such as WGCEP. This study undertakes to determine how the lay public interprets earthquake hazard information, as presented in graphical map form by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), compiled by the WGCEP and other bodies including the USGS and CGS. It also explores alternate ways of presenting hazard data, to determine which presentation format most effectively translates information from scientists to public. Participants both from California and from elsewhere in the United States are included, to determine whether familiarity -- either with the experience of an earthquake, or with the geography of the forecast area -- affects people's ability to interpret an earthquake hazards map. We hope that the comparisons between the interpretations by scientific experts and by different groups of laypeople will both enhance theoretical understanding of factors that affect information transmission and assist bodies such as the WGCEP in their laudable attempts to help people prepare themselves and their communities for possible natural hazards. [1] Kahneman, D & Tversky, A (1979). Prospect

  20. Assessment of vulnerability to storm induced flood hazard along diverse coastline settings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valchev Nikolay

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of storm‐induced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots. The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of relevant hazard intensities, extents and potential receptors’ exposure vulnerability within predefined sectors. Total water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes. Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure indicators into a single index, thereby providing base for comparison of coastal sectors’ vulnerability. The study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.

  1. Integrated assessment framework for quantifying multi-hazard risk in large cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Xiaodong; Liang, Qiuhua; Yamazaki, Hiro; Dawson, Richard

    2016-04-01

    To better understand the integrated disaster risk in the region exposed to multiple natural hazards, there is a need for quantitative assessments that comprehensively consider all the regional major natural hazards and their interactions and correlations. This study developed an integrated assessment framework for quantifying water-related multi-hazard risk in costal cities, taking into account the possibility and outcome of the concurrence of river flood, heavy rain and storm surge. As the first part of this framework, copula theory is applied to measure the dependence between the three hazards and fit their joint probability distributions, which are used to simulate the concurrent events under different scenarios of probability. For each of the simulated events, a GPU-accelerated hydraulic model based on 2D Shallow Water Equation is operated to calculate the the flooding area and water depth. Vulnerability curves that illustrate the possible loss of different exposures as a function of hazard (flooding area and water depth) are generated and then applied to calculate the probability of loss at various level. London, which is a typical area threatened by pluvial, fluvial and costal floods, is selected as the study case in this framework. Compared with single-hazard risk, the integrated and quantitative assessment of disaster risk due to the three water-related hazard can provide more scientific reference for regional land-use planning, disaster prevention and emergency management.

  2. Mount Rainier: A decade volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Donald A.; Malone, Stephen D.; Samora, Barbara A.

    Mount Rainier, the highest (4392 m) volcano in the Cascade Range, towers over a population of more than 2.5 million in the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area, and its drainage system via the Columbia River potentially affects another 500,000 residents of southwestern Washington and northwestern Oregon (Figure 1). Mount Rainier is the most hazardous volcano in the Cascades in terms of its potential for magma-water interaction and sector collapse. Major eruptions, or debris flows even without eruption, pose significant dangers and economic threats to the region. Despite such hazard and risk, Mount Rainier has received little study; such important topics as its petrologic and geochemical character, its proximal eruptive history, its susceptibility to major edifice failure, and its development over time have been barely investigated. This situation may soon change because of Mount Rainier's recent designation as a “Decade Volcano.”

  3. ASSESSING CHEMICAL HAZARDS AT THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT (PFP) FOR PLANNING FUTURE D&D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    HOPKINS, A.M.; KLOS, D.B.; MINETT, M.J.

    2007-01-25

    This paper documents the fiscal year (FY) 2006 assessment to evaluate potential chemical and radiological hazards associated with vessels and piping in the former plutonium process areas at Hanford's Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). Evaluations by PFP engineers as design authorities for specific systems and other subject-matter experts were conducted to identify the chemical hazards associated with transitioning the process areas for the long-term layup of PFP before its eventual final decontamination and decommissioning (D and D). D and D activities in the main process facilities were suspended in September 2005 for a period of between 5 and 10 years. A previous assessment conducted in FY 2003 found that certain activities to mitigate chemical hazards could be deferred safely until the D and D of PFP, which had been scheduled to result in a slab-on-grade condition by 2009. As a result of necessary planning changes, however, D and D activities at PFP will be delayed until after the 2009 time frame. Given the extended project and plant life, it was determined that a review of the plant chemical hazards should be conducted. This review to determine the extended life impact of chemicals is called the ''Plutonium Finishing Plant Chemical Hazards Assessment, FY 2006''. This FY 2006 assessment addresses potential chemical and radiological hazard areas identified by facility personnel and subject-matter experts who reevaluated all the chemical systems (items) from the FY 2003 assessment. This paper provides the results of the FY 2006 chemical hazards assessment and describes the methodology used to assig