WorldWideScience

Sample records for volcano early warning

  1. Instrumentation Recommendations for Volcano Monitoring at U.S. Volcanoes Under the National Volcano Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Seth C.; Freymueller, Jeff T.; LaHusen, Richard G.; McGee, Kenneth A.; Poland, Michael P.; Power, John A.; Schmidt, David A.; Schneider, David J.; Stephens, George; Werner, Cynthia A.; White, Randall A.

    2008-01-01

    As magma moves toward the surface, it interacts with anything in its path: hydrothermal systems, cooling magma bodies from previous eruptions, and (or) the surrounding 'country rock'. Magma also undergoes significant changes in its physical properties as pressure and temperature conditions change along its path. These interactions and changes lead to a range of geophysical and geochemical phenomena. The goal of volcano monitoring is to detect and correctly interpret such phenomena in order to provide early and accurate warnings of impending eruptions. Given the well-documented hazards posed by volcanoes to both ground-based populations (for example, Blong, 1984; Scott, 1989) and aviation (for example, Neal and others, 1997; Miller and Casadevall, 2000), volcano monitoring is critical for public safety and hazard mitigation. Only with adequate monitoring systems in place can volcano observatories provide accurate and timely forecasts and alerts of possible eruptive activity. At most U.S. volcanoes, observatories traditionally have employed a two-component approach to volcano monitoring: (1) install instrumentation sufficient to detect unrest at volcanic systems likely to erupt in the not-too-distant future; and (2) once unrest is detected, install any instrumentation needed for eruption prediction and monitoring. This reactive approach is problematic, however, for two reasons. 1. At many volcanoes, rapid installation of new ground-1. based instruments is difficult or impossible. Factors that complicate rapid response include (a) eruptions that are preceded by short (hours to days) precursory sequences of geophysical and (or) geochemical activity, as occurred at Mount Redoubt (Alaska) in 1989 (24 hours), Anatahan (Mariana Islands) in 2003 (6 hours), and Mount St. Helens (Washington) in 1980 and 2004 (7 and 8 days, respectively); (b) inclement weather conditions, which may prohibit installation of new equipment for days, weeks, or even months, particularly at

  2. Summary of the stakeholders workshop to develop a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne; Scott, William E.; Driedger, Carolyn L.; Ewert, John W.

    2006-01-01

    The importance of investing in monitoring, mitigation, and preparedness before natural hazards occur has been amply demonstrated by recent disasters such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in December 2004 and Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. Playing catch-up with hazardous natural phenomena such as these limits our ability to work with public officials and the public to lessen adverse impacts. With respect to volcanic activity, the starting point of effective pre-event mitigation is monitoring capability sufficient to detect and diagnose precursory unrest so that communities at risk have reliable information and sufficient time to respond to hazards with which they may be confronted. Recognizing that many potentially dangerous U.S. volcanoes have inadequate or no ground-based monitoring, the U.S Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and partners recently evaluated U.S. volcano-monitoring capabilities and published 'An Assessment of Volcanic Threat and Monitoring Capabilities in the United States: Framework for a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS).' Results of the NVEWS volcanic threat and monitoring assessment are being used to guide long-term improvements to the national volcano-monitoring infrastructure operated by the USGS and affiliated groups. The NVEWS report identified the need to convene a workshop of a broad group of stakeholders--such as representatives of emergency- and land-management agencies at the Federal, State, and local levels and the aviation sector--to solicit input about implementation of NVEWS and their specific information requirements. Accordingly, an NVEWS Stakeholders Workshop was held in Portland, Oregon, on 22-23 February 2006. A summary of the workshop is presented in this document.

  3. Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

    2015-01-01

    Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

  4. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  5. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  6. Radiation early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitzer, C.; Kloesch, W.; Stadtmann, H.

    1993-01-01

    A prototype station for a Radiation Early Warning Network has been designed and set up at the Austrian Research Centre Seibersdorf. This unit was developed to measure all relevant parameters necessary to detect and track radioactive contamination at an early stage. The station consists of the following components: Radiation measuring channel for ambient gamma dose rate. Meteorological measurement channels for air temperature and humidity, wind direction and wind speed, and precipitation. Data processing and storage unit. The system is capable of unattended operation and data acquisition even under adverse environmental conditions. Connection to a central processing platform may be achieved via leased line, dial up over public switched telephone network (PSTN), or radio-frequency transmission. The remote station will continue acquiring and storing data for at least a month, even if the communications link is broken. Multiple stations can be combined to form a network, providing detailed information about radiological and meteorological data at each site. Thus increased ambient radiation levels may be discovered, tracked, and forecasted based on calculations using current and local weather data

  7. Vantage point - Early warning flaws.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinden, Donna

    2014-08-28

    USING AN EARLY warning score (EWS) system should improve the detection of acutely deteriorating patients. Under such a system, a score is allocated to each of six physiological measurements including respiratory rate and oxygen saturations, which are aggregated to produce an overall score. An aggregated score of seven or higher prompts nursing staff to refer a patient for emergency assessment.

  8. Developing effective warning systems: Ongoing research at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas; Christianson, Amy; Becker, Julia; Keys, Harry

    2008-05-01

    PurposeThis paper examines the unique challenges to volcanic risk management associated with having a ski area on an active volcano. Using a series of simulated eruption/lahar events at Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, as a context, a model of risk management that integrates warning system design and technology, risk perceptions and the human response is explored. Principal resultsDespite increases in the observed audibility and comprehension of the warning message, recall of public education content, and people's awareness of volcanic risk, a persistent minority of the public continued to demonstrate only moderate awareness of the correct actions to take during a warning and failed to respond effectively. A relationship between level of staff competence and correct public response allowed the level of public response to be used to identify residual risk and additional staff training needs. The quality of staff awareness, action and decision-making has emerged as a critical factor, from detailed staff and public interviews and from exercise observations. Staff actions are especially important for mobilising correct public response at Ruapehu ski areas due to the transient nature of the visitor population. Introduction of education material and staff training strategies that included the development of emergency decision-making competencies improved knowledge of correct actions, and increased the proportion of people moving out of harm's way during blind tests. Major conclusionsWarning effectiveness is a function of more than good hazard knowledge and the generation and notification of an early warning message. For warning systems to be effective, these factors must be complemented by accurate knowledge of risk and risk management actions. By combining the Ruapehu findings with those of other warning system studies in New Zealand, and internationally, a practical five-step model for effective early warning systems is discussed. These steps must be based upon sound and

  9. Communication architecture of an early warning system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Angermann

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses aspects of communication architecture for early warning systems (EWS in general and gives details of the specific communication architecture of an early warning system against tsunamis. While its sensors are the "eyes and ears" of a warning system and enable the system to sense physical effects, its communication links and terminals are its "nerves and mouth" which transport measurements and estimates within the system and eventually warnings towards the affected population. Designing the communication architecture of an EWS against tsunamis is particularly challenging. Its sensors are typically very heterogeneous and spread several thousand kilometers apart. They are often located in remote areas and belong to different organizations. Similarly, the geographic spread of the potentially affected population is wide. Moreover, a failure to deliver a warning has fatal consequences. Yet, the communication infrastructure is likely to be affected by the disaster itself. Based on an analysis of the criticality, vulnerability and availability of communication means, we describe the design and implementation of a communication system that employs both terrestrial and satellite communication links. We believe that many of the issues we encountered during our work in the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 on the design and implementation communication architecture are also relevant for other types of warning systems. With this article, we intend to share our insights and lessons learned.

  10. Sensors Provide Early Warning of Biological Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Early Warning Inc. of Troy, New York, licensed powerful biosensor technology from Ames Research Center. Incorporating carbon nanotubes tipped with single strands of nucleic acid from waterborne pathogens, the sensor can detect even minute amounts of targeted, disease causing bacteria, viruses, and parasites. Early Warning features the NASA biosensor in its water analyzer, which can provide advance alert of potential biological hazards in water used for agriculture, food and beverages, showers, and at beaches and lakes -- within hours instead of the days required by conventional laboratory methods.

  11. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  12. Flood early warning system: sensors and internet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pengel, B.E.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Shirshov, G.S.; Koelewijn, A.R.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Chavoshian, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2013-01-01

    The UrbanFlood early warning system (EWS) is designed to monitor data from very large sensornetworks in flood defences such as embankments, dikes, levees, and dams. The EWS, based on the internet, uses real-time sensor information and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to immediately calculate the

  13. Automatic early warning systems for the environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesjak Martin

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Computerized, continuous monitoring environmental early warning systems are complex networks that merge measurements with the information technology. Accuracy, consistency, reliability and data quality are their most important features. Several effects may disturb their characteristics: hostile environment, unreliable communications, poor quality of equipment nonqualified users or service personnel. According to our experiences, a number of measures should be taken to enhance system performances and to maintain them at the desired level. In the paper, we are presenting an analysis of system requirements, possible disturbances and corrective measures that give the main directives for the design, construction and exploitation of the environmental early warning systems. Procedures which ensure data integrity and quality are mentioned. Finally, the contemporary system approach based on the LAN/WAN network topology with Intranet/Internet software is proposed, together with case descriptions of two already operating systems, based on computer-network principle.

  14. Early warnings : a phenomenon in project management

    OpenAIRE

    Nikander, Ilmari O.

    2002-01-01

    The emergence of Concurrent Engineering has caused growing demands on project management. The classic project management methods are often slow: problems may already exist when those methods are applied. The objective of the present study is to improve the opportunities of those responsible for a project's operational management to receive advance information about potential problems and final results through early warnings typical of the theory of weak signals by Igor Ansoff. The researc...

  15. Home seismometer for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiuchi, Shigeki; Horiuchi, Yuko; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Wu, Changjiang; Rydelek, Paul A.; Kachi, Masaaki

    2009-02-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started the practical service of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and a very dense deployment of receiving units is expected in the near future. The receiving/alarm unit of an EEW system is equipped with a CPU and memory and is on-line via the internet. By adding an inexpensive seismometer and A/D converter, this unit is transformed into a real-time seismic observatory, which we are calling a home seismometer. If the home seismometer is incorporated in the standard receiving unit of EEW, then the number of seismic observatories will be drastically increased. Since the background noise inside a house caused by human activity may be very large, we have developed specialized software for on-site warning using the home seismometer. We tested our software and found that our algorithm can correctly distinguish between noise and earthquakes for nearly all the events.

  16. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  17. Early warning signals of simulated Amazon dieback

    OpenAIRE

    Boulton, Chris; Good, Peter; Lenton, Tim

    2013-01-01

    Dieback of the Amazon rainforest has been considered a potential tipping point in the Earth system due to the belief that there is more than one stable attractor in its dynamics and for future projections within global climate models (GCMs), in some cases a huge amount of forest is lost abruptly. The rainforest is a huge carbon sink, playing a critical role in the global carbon cycle and so if dieback is going to happen over a short period of time, it is important to have some early warning t...

  18. Early warning network of the Czech Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drabova, D.; Kuca, P.; Prouza, Z.

    1998-01-01

    The Early Warning Network encompasses 48 measuring sites covering the whole territory of the Czech Republic; 38 of them are located at observatories of the Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute (28 at round-the-clock manned observatories, 10 at unmanned, automated observatories) and 10 are located at air contamination measuring points operated by the National Radiation Protection Institute and Regional Centres of the State Office for Nuclear Safety. The network operates in one of 3 modes: the standard mode, alert mode, and emergency mode. (P.A.)

  19. A review of studies on community based early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret Macherera

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated by successes made in non-disease specific community-based early warning systems with a view to identify opportunities for developing similar systems for malaria. This article reviewed the existing community-based early warning systems documented in literature. The types of disasters that are addressed by these systems and the methodologies utilised in the development of the systems were identified. The review showed that most of the documented community-based early warning systems focus on natural disasters such as floods, drought, and landslides. Community-based early warning systems for human diseases are very few, even though such systems exist at national and regional and global levels. There is a clear gap in terms of community-based malaria early warning systems. The methodologies for the development of the community-based early warning systems reviewed mainly derive from the four elements of early warning systems; namely risk knowledge, monitoring, warning communication and response capability. The review indicated the need for the development of community based early warning systems for human diseases. Keywords: community; early warning; disaster; hazards

  20. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  1. The investigation of early warning signs of aggression in forensic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frans Fluttert; prof Berno van Meijel; Mieke Grypdonck; Bjørkly Stal; Mirjan van Leeuwen

    2012-01-01

    Aims and objectives. The Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory (FESAI) was developed to assist nurses and patients in identifying early warning signs and constructing individual early detection plans (EDP) for the prevention of aggressive incidents. The aims of this research were as

  2. A review of studies on community based early warning systems

    OpenAIRE

    Margaret Macherera; Moses J. Chimbari

    2016-01-01

    Community-based early warning systems involve community driven collection and analysis of information that enable warning messages to help a community to react to a hazard and reduce the resulting loss or harm. Most early warning systems are designed at the national or global level. Local communities’ capacity to predict weather conditions using indigenous knowledge has been demonstrated in studies focusing on climate change and agriculture in some African countries. This review was motivated...

  3. Early warning of climate tipping points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, Timothy M.

    2011-07-01

    A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose.

  4. Early warnings of heart rate deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Vania G; Nabney, Ian T

    2016-08-01

    Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with severe sepsis. Different indicators were considered: 1) generic early warning indicators used in ecosystems analysis (autocorrelation at-1-lag (ACF1), standard deviation (SD), skewness, kurtosis and heteroskedasticity) and 2) entropy analysis (kernel entropy and multi scale entropy). Our preliminary findings suggest that when a critical transition is approaching, the equilibrium state changes what is visible in the ACF1 and SD values, but also by the analysis of the entropy. Entropy allows to characterize the complexity of the time series during the hospital stay and can be used as an indicator of regime shifts in a patient's condition. One of the main problems is its dependency of the scale used. Our results demonstrate that different entropy scales should be used depending of the level of entropy verified.

  5. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  6. Feasibility study of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.; Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia J.; Bodin, Paul

    2016-09-30

    The effects of earthquake shaking on the population and infrastructure across the State of Hawaii could be catastrophic, and the high seismic hazard in the region emphasizes the likelihood of such an event. Earthquake early warning (EEW) has the potential to give several seconds of warning before strong shaking starts, and thus reduce loss of life and damage to property. The two approaches to EEW are (1) a network approach (such as ShakeAlert or ElarmS) where the regional seismic network is used to detect the earthquake and distribute the alarm and (2) a local approach where a critical facility has a single seismometer (or small array) and a warning system on the premises.The network approach, also referred to here as ShakeAlert or ElarmS, uses the closest stations within a regional seismic network to detect and characterize an earthquake. Most parameters used for a network approach require observations on multiple stations (typically 3 or 4), which slows down the alarm time slightly, but the alarms are generally more reliable than with single-station EEW approaches. The network approach also benefits from having stations closer to the source of any potentially damaging earthquake, so that alarms can be sent ahead to anyone who subscribes to receive the notification. Thus, a fully implemented ShakeAlert system can provide seconds of warning for both critical facilities and general populations ahead of damaging earthquake shaking.The cost to implement and maintain a fully operational ShakeAlert system is high compared to a local approach or single-station solution, but the benefits of a ShakeAlert system would be felt statewide—the warning times for strong shaking are potentially longer for most sources at most locations.The local approach, referred to herein as “single station,” uses measurements from a single seismometer to assess whether strong earthquake shaking can be expected. Because of the reliance on a single station, false alarms are more common than

  7. The Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System of Cyprus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christofides, S [Medical Physics Department, Nicosia General Hospital, Nicosia (Cyprus)

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents the hardware design, the development of the software and the use of the Telemetric Early Warning Environmental Radiation Monitoring System (TEWERMS) of Cyprus. (author). 3 refs, 6 figs.

  8. Test of thermal shields for early warning station detectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jesper

    1997-01-01

    The properties of thermal shields around NaI crystal scintillators for early warning stations have been checked in order to assure that external temperature variations cannot influence the stability of the measurements....

  9. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  10. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  11. Early Warning System Ghana: how to successfully implement a disaster early warning system in a data scarce region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udo, Job; Jungermann, Nicole

    2016-04-01

    Ghana is a country frequently struck by natural disasters like floods and droughts. Timely warning or detection of such disasters will mitigate the negative impact on lives and property. However, local data and monitoring systems necessary to provide such a warning are hardly available. The availability and improvement of internet, mobile phones and satellites has provided new possibilities for disaster warning systems in data scarce regions such as Ghana. Our presentation describes the development of an early warning system (EWS) in Ghana completely based on satellite based open data. The EWS provides a flood or drought hazard warning on sub-catchment level and links the warning to a more detailed flood or drought risk map, to enable the disaster coordinator to send warnings or relieve more efficiently to areas that have the highest risk. This is especially relevant because some areas for which the system is implemented are very remote. The system is developed and tested to be robust and operational especially in remote areas. This means that the necessary information is also available under limited internet conditions and not dependent on local computer facilities. In many rural areas in Ghana communities rely on indigenous knowledge when it comes to flood or drought disaster forecasting. The EWS has a feature that allows indigenous knowledge indicators to be taken into account in the warning and makes easy comparison possible with the satellite based warnings.

  12. MAFALDA: An early warning modeling tool to forecast volcanic ash dispersal and deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2008-12-01

    Forecasting the dispersal of ash from explosive volcanoes is a scientific challenge to modern volcanology. It also represents a fundamental step in mitigating the potential impact of volcanic ash on urban areas and transport routes near explosive volcanoes. To this end we developed a Web-based early warning modeling tool named MAFALDA (Modeling and Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere) able to quantitatively forecast ash concentrations in the air and on the ground. The main features of MAFALDA are the usage of (1) a dispersal model, named VOL-CALPUFF, that couples the column ascent phase with the ash cloud transport and (2) high-resolution weather forecasting data, the capability to run and merge multiple scenarios, and the Web-based structure of the procedure that makes it suitable as an early warning tool. MAFALDA produces plots for a detailed analysis of ash cloud dynamics and ground deposition, as well as synthetic 2-D maps of areas potentially affected by dangerous concentrations of ash. A first application of MAFALDA to the long-lasting weak plumes produced at Mt. Etna (Italy) is presented. A similar tool can be useful to civil protection authorities and volcanic observatories in reducing the impact of the eruptive events. MAFALDA can be accessed at http://mafalda.pi.ingv.it.

  13. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  14. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  15. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnatak, Rajat; Kantz, Holger; Bialonski, Stephan

    2017-10-01

    The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and nonbifurcation-type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals.

  16. Towards a certification process for tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löwe, Peter; Wächter, Jochen; Hammitzsch, Martin

    2013-04-01

    The natural disaster of the Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 was followed by an information catastrophe. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages in a proven workflow. A second challenge stems from the main objective of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC) Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from individual sensors, to Warning Centers within their particular end-to-end Warning System Environments, and up to federated Systems of Tsunami Warning Systems has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CeGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already, being the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS). This activity is continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7

  17. Earthquake Early Warning: User Education and Designing Effective Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Sellnow, D. D.; Jones, L.; Sellnow, T. L.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners are transitioning from test-user trials of a demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) to deciding and preparing how to implement the release of earthquake early warning information, alert messages, and products to the public and other stakeholders. An earthquake early warning system uses seismic station networks to rapidly gather information about an occurring earthquake and send notifications to user devices ahead of the arrival of potentially damaging ground shaking at their locations. Earthquake early warning alerts can thereby allow time for actions to protect lives and property before arrival of damaging shaking, if users are properly educated on how to use and react to such notifications. A collaboration team of risk communications researchers and earth scientists is researching the effectiveness of a chosen subset of potential earthquake early warning interface designs and messages, which could be displayed on a device such as a smartphone. Preliminary results indicate, for instance, that users prefer alerts that include 1) a map to relate their location to the earthquake and 2) instructions for what to do in response to the expected level of shaking. A number of important factors must be considered to design a message that will promote appropriate self-protective behavior. While users prefer to see a map, how much information can be processed in limited time? Are graphical representations of wavefronts helpful or confusing? The most important factor to promote a helpful response is the predicted earthquake intensity, or how strong the expected shaking will be at the user's location. Unlike Japanese users of early warning, few Californians are familiar with the earthquake intensity scale, so we are exploring how differentiating instructions between intensity levels (e.g., "Be aware" for lower shaking levels and "Drop, cover, hold on" at high levels) can be paired with self-directed supplemental

  18. Implementing drought early warning systems: policy lessons and future needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Ana; Werner, Micha; Maia, Rodrigo; Garrote, Luis; Nyabeze, Washington

    2014-05-01

    Drought forecasting and Warning provides the potential of reducing impacts to society due to drought events. The implementation of effective drought forecasting and warning, however, requires not only science to support reliable forecasting, but also adequate policy and societal response. Here we propose a protocol to develop drought forecasting and early warning based in the international cooperation of African and European institutions in the DEWFORA project (EC, 7th Framework Programme). The protocol includes four major phases that address the scientific knowledge and the social capacity to use the knowledge: (a) What is the science available? Evaluating how signs of impending drought can be detected and predicted, defining risk levels, and analysing of the signs of drought in an integrated vulnerability approach. (b) What are the societal capacities? In this the institutional framework that enables policy development is evaluated. The protocol gathers information on vulnerability and pending hazard in advance so that early warnings can be declared at sufficient lead time and drought mitigation planning can be implemented at an early stage. (c) How can science be translated into policy? Linking science indicators into the actions/interventions that society needs to implement, and evaluating how policy is implemented. Key limitations to planning for drought are the social capacities to implement early warning systems. Vulnerability assessment contributes to identify these limitations and therefore provides crucial information to policy development. Based on the assessment of vulnerability we suggest thresholds for management actions to respond to drought forecasts and link predictive indicators to relevant potential mitigation strategies. Vulnerability assessment is crucial to identify relief, coping and management responses that contribute to a more resilient society. (d) How can society benefit from the forecast? Evaluating how information is provided to

  19. The comparison of modified early warning score and Glasgow coma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: The purpose of this study is to assess and compare the discriminatory ability of the Glasgow coma scale (GCS)‑age‑systolic blood pressure (GAP) score and modified early warning scoring system (mEWS) score for 4‑week mortality, for the patients being in the triage category 1 and 2 who refer to Emergency ...

  20. Flood early warning system : Design, implementation and computational modules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Shirshov, G.S.; Melnikova, N.B.; Belleman, R.G.; Rusadi, F.I.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Gouldby, B.P.; Lhomme, J.; Balis, B.; Bubak, M.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Ozhigin, A.V.; Lang, B.; Meijer, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    We present a prototype of the flood early warning system (EWS) developed within the UrbanFlood FP7 project. The system monitors sensor networks installed in flood defenses (dikes, dams, embankments, etc.), detects sensor signal abnormalities, calculates dike failure probability, and simulates

  1. Sensitivity to selected contaminants in a biological early warning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Several early warning systems for the monitoring of water quality are based on the assessment of valve opening/closing in bivalves. Tests were conducted to assess the sensitivity of the mussel Anodonta woodiana, installed on the Mosselmonitor, to seven contaminants and evaluate the usefulness of these sensors for ...

  2. The comparison of modified early warning score and Glasgow coma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-02-08

    Feb 8, 2016 ... 4‑week mortality, for the patients being in the triage category 1 and 2 who refer to Emergency ... early warning scoring system (EWS) was defined by Morgan et al. on .... method in identifying the risky patients, since there are.

  3. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  4. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  5. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...

  6. Software for ASS-500 based early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipinski, P.; Isajenko, K.

    1998-01-01

    The article describes the software for the management of early warning system based on ASS-500 station. The software can communicate with the central computer using TCP/IP protocol. This allows remote control of the station through modem or local area network connection. The article describes Windows based user interface of the program

  7. Environmental Change & Fragile States Early Warning and Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-12

    Natural Resources and Ecosystem Services] Sources: Adapted from Maslow , 1943; Butts as reported by Damonte, 2006 8  Research...how positions of competing interests will evolve. Synthesizes political science, microeconomics, game theory , decision theory , and spatial...explanation of why outcomes occur (actor motivations ) Senturion Software 19 Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)  Developed By DARPA

  8. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, William A.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Livina, Valerie N.; Seekell, David A.; Scheffer, Marten; van Nes, Egbert H.; Dakos, Vasilis

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data. PMID:24658137

  9. Signal Processing Methods for Flood Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Kozionov, A.P.; Kusherbaeva, V.T.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Meijer, R.J.; Hinkelmann, R.; Nasermoaddeli, M.H.; Liong, S.Y.; Savic, D.; Fröhle, P.; Daemrich, K.F.

    2012-01-01

    We present in a data-driven approach for detection of anomalies in earthen dam (dike) behaviour that can indicate the onset of flood defence structure failure. This approach is implemented in the UrbanFlood early warning system's Artificial Intelligence component that processes dike measurements in

  10. Implementing an Inpatient Social Early Warning System for Child Maltreatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atabaki, Armita; Heddaeus, Daniela; Metzner, Franka; Schulz, Holger; Siefert, Sonke; Pawils, Silke

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The current article describes the process evaluation of a social early warning system (SEWS) for the prevention of child maltreatment in the federal state of Hamburg. This prevention initiative targets expectant mothers and their partners including an initial screening of risk factors for child maltreatment, a subsequent structured…

  11. Risk perception at a persistently active volcano: warnings and trust at Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico, 2012-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donovan, Amy; Ayala, Irasema Alcántara; Eiser, J. R.; Sparks, R. S. J.

    2018-05-01

    This paper presents data from an online survey carried out in Mexico from 2012 to 2014. The survey focussed on the risk to Mexico City from Popocatépetl, an active volcano 60 km from the city. During the time period, volcanic activity was variable, and the alert level changed accordingly. The survey showed that people surveyed at the higher alert level were generally more concerned about the volcano. Since these people were measured separately from those who responded at the lower alert level and yet self-reported on the same scale as more concerned, this provides a useful indicator that the raised alert level may be associated with higher risk perception, and that alert level systems act as boundary objects in the translation of scientific information. In general, trust in various groups was most strongly explained by the perceived knowledge of the groups, followed by their perceived motivation (whether or not they are viewed as working in society's interest), with accuracy a tertiary concern. Some respondents were anxious about false alarms—these people also tended to be concerned about scientific accuracy while those who favoured precaution tended to be more trusting. The perceived effectiveness of warning and evacuation plans was also a significant predictor for trust in official groups. In general, the results suggest that there are important links between trust, warning plans and the perceived motivation of particular groups as well as between trust and perceived knowledge.

  12. Application of τc*Pd in earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Po-Lun; Lin, Ting-Li; Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-03-01

    Rapid assessment of damage potential and size of an earthquake at the station is highly demanded for onsite earthquake early warning. We study the application of τc*Pd for its estimation on the earthquake size using 123 events recorded by the borehole stations of KiK-net in Japan. The new type of earthquake size determined by τc*Pd is more related to the damage potential. We find that τc*Pd provides another parameter to measure the size of earthquake and the threshold to warn strong ground motion.

  13. Early warnings of heart rate deterioration

    OpenAIRE

    Almeida, Vânia G.; Nabney, Ian T.

    2016-01-01

    Hospitals can experience difficulty in detecting and responding to early signs of patient deterioration leading to late intensive care referrals, excess mortality and morbidity, and increased hospital costs. Our study aims to explore potential indicators of physiological deterioration by the analysis of vital-signs. The dataset used comprises heart rate (HR) measurements from MIMIC II waveform database, taken from six patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and diagnosed with sever...

  14. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, C.; Meng, L.

    2015-12-01

    Tsunami wave predictions of the current tsunami warning systems rely on accurate earthquake source inversions of wave height data. They are of limited effectiveness for the near-field areas since the tsunami waves arrive before data are collected. Recent seismic and tsunami disasters have revealed the need for early warning to protect near-source coastal populations. In this work we developed the basis for a tsunami warning system based on rapid earthquake source characterisation through regional seismic array back-projections. We explored rapid earthquake source imaging using onshore dense seismic arrays located at regional distances on the order of 1000 km, which provides faster source images than conventional teleseismic back-projections. We implement this method in a simulated real-time environment, and analysed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake rupture with two clusters of Hi-net stations in Kyushu and Northern Hokkaido, and the 2014 Iquique event with the Earthscope USArray Transportable Array. The results yield reasonable estimates of rupture area, which is approximated by an ellipse and leads to the construction of simple slip models based on empirical scaling of the rupture area, seismic moment and average slip. The slip model is then used as the input of the tsunami simulation package COMCOT to predict the tsunami waves. In the example of the Tohoku event, the earthquake source model can be acquired within 6 minutes from the start of rupture and the simulation of tsunami waves takes less than 2 min, which could facilitate a timely tsunami warning. The predicted arrival time and wave amplitude reasonably fit observations. Based on this method, we propose to develop an automatic warning mechanism that provides rapid near-field warning for areas of high tsunami risk. The initial focus will be Japan, Pacific Northwest and Alaska, where dense seismic networks with the capability of real-time data telemetry and open data accessibility, such as the Japanese HiNet (>800

  15. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, C.; Marmureanu, A.; Grigore, A.; Tataru, D.

    2005-01-01

    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km.Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk given by strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  16. Vrancea early warning system for Bucharest and industrial objectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wenzel, Friedemann; Bonjer, K. P.

    2004-01-01

    Romania is an earthquake prone area and it is of crucial importance to obtain quantitative information needed for seismic risk mitigation and related public policies and seismic safety measures. The most damaging earthquakes in Romania concentrate in the Vrancea region, located at the sharp bend of the Eastern Carpathians Arc, in a well confined focal volume at intermediate depths between 60 km and 200 km. Vrancea earthquakes are documented for at least a millennium (since 985 a.c.) and represent very peculiar characteristics. They are a permanent threat for large urban areas on the Romanian territory and extended areas in Europe. Bucharest is among the mega cities mostly affected by destructive earthquakes. The early warning system in Romania is to provide individuals and communities exposed to disaster risk due to strong Vrancea earthquakes, with accurate information about an impending hazard as early as possible, to act in a timely and appropriate manner to reduce probability of suffering, personal damage, death and property losses. The purpose of this early system is to issue messages at sites of interest before the destructive seismic energy arrives. Early warning system is a technological instrument to detect, monitor and issue warnings/alerts. It needs to become part of a management information system for decision - making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and as a part of national and local strategies for disaster risk reduction. (authors)

  17. Early warning: Avian flu and nuclear science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belak, S.

    2006-01-01

    Avian flu has spread to 51 countries, 36 this year alone, many of which are densely populated and deprived. The joint FAO/IAEA programme is working on the rapid detection of emerging diseases, including bird flu, and using nuclear and radiation techniques in the process. The problems are serious and challenging, but nuclear technologies may offer a solution. For most developing countries, TAD (transboundary animal diseases) detection is still vital. The bottleneck is their inability to rapidly detect the virus and to determine early enough whether it is H5N1 or another subtype, so that authorities can take appropriate control measures. Serious efforts are focused on the early detection of the agents. Timely recognition of such viral infections would prevent the spread of the diseases to large animal populations in huge geographic areas. Thus, the development of novel, powerful diagnostic nuclear and nuclear-related assays is a crucial issue today in veterinary research and animal health care. Molecular virology offers a range of new methods, which are able to accelerate and improve the diagnosis of infectious diseases in animals and in man. The molecular detection assays, like the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technologies, provide possibilities for a very rapid diagnosis. The detection of viruses can be completed within hours or hopefully even within minutes with a sensitivity level of less than one pathogenic organism. Molecular approaches have contributed significantly to the rapid detection of well-established, as well as newly emerging, infectious agents such as Nipah and Hendra viruses or corona viruses in the SARS scenario and the detection and molecular characterisation of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype that threatens the world today. The nucleic acid amplification assays, although they were at first expensive and cumbersome, have become relatively cheap and user-friendly tools in the diagnostic laboratories

  18. Tsunami Early Warning via a Physics-Based Simulation Pipeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, J. M.; Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Ward, S. N.; Komjathy, A.

    2017-12-01

    Through independent efforts, physics-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and atmospheric signatures of these phenomenon have been developed. With the goal of producing tsunami forecasts and early warning tools for at-risk regions, we join these three spheres to create a simulation pipeline. The Virtual Quake simulator can produce thousands of years of synthetic seismicity on large, complex fault geometries, as well as the expected surface displacement in tsunamigenic regions. These displacements are used as initial conditions for tsunami simulators, such as Tsunami Squares, to produce catalogs of potential tsunami scenarios with probabilities. Finally, these tsunami scenarios can act as input for simulations of associated ionospheric total electron content, signals which can be detected by GNSS satellites for purposes of early warning in the event of a real tsunami. We present the most recent developments in this project.

  19. The pathway to earthquake early warning in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R. M.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Vidale, J. E.; West Coast Earthquake Early Warning Development Team

    2013-05-01

    The development of earthquake early warning capabilities in the United States is now accelerating and expanding as the technical capability to provide warning is demonstrated and additional funding resources are making it possible to expand the current testing region to the entire west coast (California, Oregon and Washington). Over the course of the next two years we plan to build a prototype system that will provide a blueprint for a full public system in the US. California currently has a demonstrations warning system, ShakeAlert, that provides alerts to a group of test users from the public and private sector. These include biotech companies, technology companies, the entertainment industry, the transportation sector, and the emergency planning and response community. Most groups are currently in an evaluation mode, receiving the alerts and developing protocols for future response. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) system is the one group who has now implemented an automated response to the warning system. BART now stops trains when an earthquake of sufficient size is detected. Research and development also continues to develop improved early warning algorithms to better predict the distribution of shaking in large earthquakes when the finiteness of the source becomes important. The algorithms under development include the use of both seismic and GPS instrumentation and integration with existing point source algorithms. At the same time, initial testing and development of algorithms in and for the Pacific Northwest is underway. In this presentation we will review the current status of the systems, highlight the new research developments, and lay out a pathway to a full public system for the US west coast. The research and development described is ongoing at Caltech, UC Berkeley, University of Washington, ETH Zurich, Southern California Earthquake Center, and the US Geological Survey, and is funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and the US Geological

  20. Climate science and famine early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

    2005-11-29

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

  1. Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

    2017-12-01

    Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

  2. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  3. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  4. Financial distress in Brazilian banks: an early warning model,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Sérgio Rosa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aims to propose an early warning model for predicting financial distress events in Brazilian banking institutions. Initially, a set of economic-financial indicators is evaluated, suggested by the risk management literature for identifying situations of bank insolvency and exclusively taking public information into account. For this, multivariate logistic regressions are performed, using as independent variables financial indicators involving capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity. The empirical analysis was based on a sample of 142 financial institutions, including privately and publicly held and state-owned companies, using monthly data from 2006 to 2014, which resulted in panel data with 12,136 observations. In the sample window there were nine cases of Brazilian Central Bank intervention or mergers and acquisitions motivated by financial distress. The results were evaluated based on the estimation of the in-sample parameters, out-of-sample tests, and the early warning model signs for a 12-month forecast horizon. These obtained true positive rates of 81%, 94%, and 89%, respectively. We conclude that typical balance-sheet indicators are relevant for the early warning signs of financial distress in Brazilian banks, which contributes to the literature on financial intermediary credit risk, especially from the perspective of bank supervisory agencies acting towards financial stability.

  5. Earthquake Early Warning Beta Users: Java, Modeling, and Mobile Apps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, J. A.; Vinci, M.; Steele, W. P.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) is a system that can provide a few to tens of seconds warning prior to ground shaking at a user's location. The goal and purpose of such a system is to reduce, or minimize, the damage, costs, and casualties resulting from an earthquake. A demonstration earthquake early warning system (ShakeAlert) is undergoing testing in the United States by the UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, Caltech, ETH Zurich, University of Washington, the USGS, and beta users in California and the Pacific Northwest. The beta users receive earthquake information very rapidly in real-time and are providing feedback on their experiences of performance and potential uses within their organization. Beta user interactions allow the ShakeAlert team to discern: which alert delivery options are most effective, what changes would make the UserDisplay more useful in a pre-disaster situation, and most importantly, what actions users plan to take for various scenarios. Actions could include: personal safety approaches, such as drop cover, and hold on; automated processes and procedures, such as opening elevator or fire stations doors; or situational awareness. Users are beginning to determine which policy and technological changes may need to be enacted, and funding requirements to implement their automated controls. The use of models and mobile apps are beginning to augment the basic Java desktop applet. Modeling allows beta users to test their early warning responses against various scenarios without having to wait for a real event. Mobile apps are also changing the possible response landscape, providing other avenues for people to receive information. All of these combine to improve business continuity and resiliency.

  6. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  7. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  8. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

    2017-12-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  9. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  10. Upgrade of the early warning system in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarvari, A.; Cindro, M.; Krizman, M.; Mitic, D.

    2003-01-01

    The main task of the Early Warning System in Slovenia is to warn the competent authorities of the increase of external radiation. Only an efficient Ewes can cope with the situation that we have in case of nuclear or radiation accident. For such purposes the measuring locations have to fulfil some basic radiation monitoring criteria (population density, distance from NPP, precipitation, land use). In this article the results of each criterion as well as the total set is described. The results of the applied criteria are presented with colour contour images. The purpose of this article is to allocate the critical areas on the territory of Slovenia that have to be considered in final determination of the appropriate measuring locations. (author)

  11. Design of Early Warning System Based on Wireless Sensor Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gan Bo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to solve the shortcomings of the landslide monitoring technology method, a set of landslides monitoring and early warning system is designed. It can achieve real-time sensor data acquisition, remote transmission and query display. In addition, aiming at the harsh environment of landslide monitoring and the performance requirements of the monitoring system, an improved minimum hop routing protocol is proposed. It can reduce network energy consumption, enhance network robustness, and improve node layout and networking flexibility. In order to realize the remote transmission of data, GPRS wireless communication is used to transmit monitoring data. Combined with remote monitoring center, real-time data display, query, preservation and landslide warning and prediction are realized. The results show that the sensor data acquisition system is accurate, the system is stable, and the node network is flexible. Therefore, the monitoring system has a good use value.

  12. The challenge of installing a tsunami early warning system in the vicinity of the Sunda Arc, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lauterjung

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia is located along the most prominent active continental margin in the Indian Ocean, the so-called Sunda Arc and, therefore, is one of the most threatened regions of the world in terms of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. On 26 December 2004 the third largest earthquake ever instrumentally recorded (magnitude 9.3, Stein and Okal, 2005 occurred off-shore northern Sumatra and triggered a mega-tsunami affecting the whole Indian Ocean. Almost a quarter of a million people were killed, as the region was not prepared either in terms of early-warning or in terms of disaster response.

    In order to be able to provide, in future, a fast and reliable warning procedure for the population, Germany, immediately after the catastrophe, offered during the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Hyogo/Japan in January 2005 technical support for the development and installation of a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean in addition to assistance in capacity building in particular for local communities. This offer was accepted by Indonesia but also by other countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and some East-African countries. Anyhow the main focus of our activities has been carried out in Indonesia as the main source of tsunami threat for the entire Indian Ocean. Challenging for the technical concept of this warning system are the extremely short warning times for Indonesia, due to its vicinity to the Sunda Arc. For this reason the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS integrates different modern and new scientific monitoring technologies and analysis methods.

  13. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Early warning system (EWS) is the most effective method in saving lives and reducing property damages resulted from the catastrophic landslides if properly implemented in populated areas of landslide-prone nations. For predicting the occurrence of landslides, it requires examination of empirical relationship between rainfall characteristics and past landslide occurrence. In developed countries like Japan and the US, precipitation is monitored by rain radars and ground-based rain gauge matrix. However, in developing regions like Southeast Asian countries, very limited number of rain gauges is available, and there is no implemented methodology for issuing effective warming of landslides yet. Correspondingly, satellite precipitation monitoring could be therefore a possible and promising solution for launching landslide quasi-real-time early warning system in those countries. It is due to the fact that TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) can provides a globally calibration-based sequential scheme for combining precipitation estimates from multiple satellites, and gauge analyses where feasible, at fine scales (3-hourly with 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution). It is available both after and in quasi-real time, calibrated by TRMM Combined Instrument and TRMM Microwave Imager precipitation product. However, validation of ground based rain gauge and TRMM satellite data in the vulnerable regions is still not yet operative. Snake-line/Critical-line and Soil Water Index (SWI) are used for issuing warning of landslide occurrence in Japan; whereas, Caine criterion is preferable in Europe and western nations. Herewith, it presents rainfall behavior which took place in Beichuan city (located on the 2008 Chinese Wenchuan earthquake fault), Hofu and Shobara cities in Japan where localized heavy rainfall attacked in 2009 and 2010, respectively, from TRMM 3B42RT correlated with ground based rain gauge data. The 1-day rainfall intensity and 15-day cumulative rainfall

  14. Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D

    2013-01-01

    Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

  15. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  16. Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... rock, steam, poisonous gases, and ash reach the Earth's surface when a volcano erupts. An eruption can also cause earthquakes, mudflows and flash floods, rock falls and landslides, acid rain, fires, and even tsunamis. Volcanic gas ...

  17. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  18. Improvements of existing early warning system in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomisa, T.

    2000-01-01

    The gamma radiation early warning system in Croatia was established in 1993. The first configuration contained 3 measuring stations connected to the monitoring center and up today the system is expanded with 5 additional locations. Each location is equipped with the MFM202 gamma-monitor and additional equipment that is not unique for all locations. This difference in remote equipment configuration caused by different communication medium used, is the reason to improve existing system trough equipment unification introducing PLC unit in the standard configuration. Such configuration enables additional functions such as automatic alerting and collecting meteorological data. (author)

  19. The Indian Ocean disaster: Tsunami physics and early warning dilemmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomnitz, Cinna; Nilsen-Hofseth, Sara

    Understanding the physics of tsunamis may save lives, especially near the epicenter of a large earthquake where the danger is highest and early warning is least likely to be effective.Normal modes of Earth are standing waves of the Love (toroidal) or the Rayleigh (spheroidal) variety. The Indian Ocean tsunami may have been partly or wholly caused by low-order spheroidal modes of the Earth such as 0S2, 0S3, and 0S4, that may have excited a waveguide—a layer that confines and guides a propagating wave—in the ocean.

  20. Ozone generation by rock fracture: Earthquake early warning?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baragiola, Raul A.; Dukes, Catherine A.; Hedges, Dawn [Engineering Physics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia 22904 (United States)

    2011-11-14

    We report the production of up to 10 ppm ozone during crushing and grinding of typical terrestrial crust rocks in air, O{sub 2} and CO{sub 2} at atmospheric pressure, but not in helium or nitrogen. Ozone is formed by exoelectrons emitted by high electric fields, resulting from charge separation during fracture. The results suggest that ground level ozone produced by rock fracture, besides its potential health hazard, can be used for early warning in earthquakes and other catastrophes, such as landslides or land shifts in excavation tunnels and underground mines.

  1. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  2. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems

  3. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Result of recent two years -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimoyama, T.; Doi, K.; Kiyomoto, M.; Hoshiba, M.

    2009-12-01

    Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) started to provide Earthquake Early Warning(EEW) to the general public in October 2007. It was followed by provision of EEW to a limited number of users who understand the technical limit of EEW and can utilize it for automatic control from August 2006. Earthquake Early Warning in Japan definitely means information of estimated amplitude and arrival time of a strong ground motion after fault rupture occurred. In other words, the EEW provided by JMA is defined as a forecast of a strong ground motion before the strong motion arrival. EEW of JMA is to enable advance countermeasures to disasters caused by strong ground motions with providing a warning message of anticipating strong ground motion before the S wave arrival. However, due to its very short available time period, there should need some measures and ideas to provide rapidly EEW and utilize it properly. - EEW is issued to general public when the maximum seismic intensity 5 lower (JMA scale) or greater is expected. - EEW message contains origin time, epicentral region name, and names of areas (unit is about 1/3 to 1/4 of one prefecture) where seismic intensity 4 or greater is expected. Expected arrival time is not included because it differs substantially even in one unit area. - EEW is to be broadcast through the broadcasting media(TV, radio and City Administrative Disaster Management Radio), and is delivered to cellular phones through cell broadcast system. For those who would like to know the more precise estimation and smaller earthquake information at their point of their properties, JMA allows designated private companies to provide forecast of strong ground motion, in which the estimation of a seismic intensity as well as arrival time of S-wave are contained, at arbitrary places under the JMA’s technical assurance. From October, 2007 to August, 2009, JMA issued 11 warnings to general public expecting seismic intensity “5 lower” or greater, including M=7.2 inland

  4. Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  5. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

    2012-12-15

    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  6. Nipple Discharge: An Early Warning Sign of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parthasarathy, Veda; Rathnam, Usharani

    2012-01-01

    Nipple discharge (ND) can be the earliest presenting symptom of breast cancer. We hereby present two cases of breast cancer with no palpable mass manifesting as isolated ND, which was whitish in color. In both cases, cytology of the discharge revealed highly pleomorphic cells indicating a high grade malignancy. Mammography showed diffuse, extensive microcalcifications. Simple mastectomy with axillary clearance was done. Histology in both cases revealed diffusely spreading intraductal carcinoma, with focus of microinvasion in one case. ND if scanty or not blood stained is often ignored by the patients and at times, the clinicians. This article highlights that ND can be an early warning sign of intraductal carcinomas that are non-invasive in early stage. Irrespective of the color or nature of the discharge, unilateral ND needs to be evaluated. Proper clinical assessment, cytological evaluation of the ND, and mammography ought to be performed in all such cases. Considering the low level of awareness in women regarding the warning signs of breast cancer, the current focus is to create “breast awareness.” Women should be sensitized to recognize any unusual changes in their breasts and report to their health care providers at the earliest. PMID:23189234

  7. Regional early flood warning system: design and implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, L. C.; Yang, S. N.; Kuo, C. L.; Wang, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    This study proposes a prototype of the regional early flood inundation warning system in Tainan City, Taiwan. The AI technology is used to forecast multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The computing time is only few seconds that leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting. A database is built to organize data and information for building real-time forecasting models, maintaining the relations of forecasted points, and displaying forecasted results, while real-time data acquisition is another key task where the model requires immediately accessing rain gauge information to provide forecast services. All programs related database are constructed in Microsoft SQL Server by using Visual C# to extracting real-time hydrological data, managing data, storing the forecasted data and providing the information to the visual map-based display. The regional early flood inundation warning system use the up-to-date Web technologies driven by the database and real-time data acquisition to display the on-line forecasting flood inundation depths in the study area. The friendly interface includes on-line sequentially showing inundation area by Google Map, maximum inundation depth and its location, and providing KMZ file download of the results which can be watched on Google Earth. The developed system can provide all the relevant information and on-line forecast results that helps city authorities to make decisions during typhoon events and make actions to mitigate the losses.

  8. An Early Warning System for Oil Security in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsong Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.

  9. Estimation for aerial detection effectiveness with cooperation efficiency factors of early-warning aircraft in early-warning detection SoS under BSC framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feng; Hu, Xiaofeng; He, Xiaoyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Kaiming; Yang, Lu

    2017-11-01

    In the military field, the performance evaluation of early-warning aircraft deployment or construction is always an important problem needing to be explored. As an effective approach of enterprise management and performance evaluation, Balanced Score Card (BSC) attracts more and more attentions and is studied more and more widely all over the world. It can also bring feasible ideas and technical approaches for studying the issue of the performance evaluation of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft which is the important component in early-warning detection system of systems (SoS). Therefore, the deep explored researches are carried out based on the previously research works. On the basis of the characteristics of space exploration and aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS and the cardinal principle of BSC are analyzed simply, and the performance evaluation framework of the deployment or construction of early-warning aircraft is given, under this framework, aimed at the evaluation issue of aerial detection effectiveness of early-warning detection SoS with the cooperation efficiency factors of the early-warning aircraft and other land based radars, the evaluation indexes are further designed and the relative evaluation model is further established, especially the evaluation radar chart being also drawn to obtain the evaluation results from a direct sight angle. Finally, some practical computer simulations are launched to prove the validity and feasibility of the research thinking and technologic approaches which are proposed in the paper.

  10. The communications in early warning network for radiation monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyoun, M.B.; Al-Hussin, Mohamad; Fares, Adnan; Al-Oulabi, Yasser; Othman, Ibrahim

    1992-07-01

    The objectives of early warning network are: The determination of gamma radiation (background) levels in air which depend on location and time, evaluation of any situation resulting from radiation or nuclear accident out of boarder, and after that reporting the emergency situation to relevant authorities on the national and international levels. Monitoring stations were installed using Gm tubes to cover boarder lines from south to north and east to west as follows: Damascus, Darra, Latakia, Tartous, Aleppo, Kamishly, Ragaa, and Qunitra. The following modes of communication: Telephone line, leased line, direct connection, and Syrian data network were used in the Syrian early network. This project was carried out in cooperation with IAEA under project no. RER/9/003. (author). 22 figs., 1 tab

  11. Flood early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Slina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila

    2004-01-01

    At the close of the twentieth century, natural hazards and disasters are one of the most common forms of disasters around the world. Natural disasters cause in significant loss of life and serious economic, environmental and social impacts that greatly retard the development process. Careful hazard assessment and planning, and a range of social, economic and political measures, can significantly contain these threats. Risk is defined as the potential for loss or damage as the result of a particular action or decision and Risk Management is a process consisting of well-defined steps which, when taken in sequence, support better decision making by contributing to a greater insight into risks and their impacts. Most commonly, there are three components in a natural disaster plan: monitoring and early warning; risk assessment; and mitigation and response. Given the improved tools and technologies available today, it is possible to provide disaster information and minimize the potential damage of disasters. In the following parts of the report, the national early warning systems for flood would be discussed, as one of the important component of natural disaster risk management. In 1. R. of Iran, also, different types of natural disasters occur, such as drought, flood, earthquake, sea-level rise, dust storm, hail, freezing and etc, but Flood hazard and disaster is one of the most frequent and damaging types of natural disasters. They have been the most common type of geophysical disaster in the latter half of the twentieth century in Iran, generating an estimated more than 20 percent of all disasters from 1950 to 2003. One of the hazardous floods of Iran occurred in Golestan and north of Khorasan provinces, located in north-east of the country, on August 2001 and 2002. In this regard, according to the responsibility of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) on the flood forecasting, the early warning issue of the mentioned flood, issued within 48 hour's in

  12. An Early-Warning System for Volcanic Ash Dispersal: The MAFALDA Procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, S.; Nannipieri, L.; Neri, A.

    2006-12-01

    Forecasts of the dispersal of volcanic ash is a fundamental goal in order to mitigate its potential impact on urbanized areas and transport routes surrounding explosive volcanoes. To this aim we developed an early- warning procedure named MAFALDA (Modeling And Forecasting Ash Loading and Dispersal in the Atmosphere). Such tool is able to quantitatively forecast the atmospheric concentration of ash as well as the ground deposition as a function of time over a 3D spatial domain.\\The main features of MAFALDA are: (1) the use of the hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian code VOL-CALPUFF able to describe both the rising column phase and the atmospheric dispersal as a function of weather conditions, (2) the use of high-resolution weather forecasting data, (3) the short execution time that allows to analyse a set of scenarios and (4) the web-based CGI software application (written in Perl programming language) that shows the results in a standard graphical web interface and makes it suitable as an early-warning system during volcanic crises.\\MAFALDA is composed by a computational part that simulates the ash cloud dynamics and a graphical interface for visualizing the modelling results. The computational part includes the codes for elaborating the meteorological data, the dispersal code and the post-processing programs. These produces hourly 2D maps of aerial ash concentration at several vertical levels, extension of "threat" area on air and 2D maps of ash deposit on the ground, in addition to graphs of hourly variations of column height.\\The processed results are available on the web by the graphical interface and the users can choose, by drop-down menu, which data to visualize. \\A first partial application of the procedure has been carried out for Mt. Etna (Italy). In this case, the procedure simulates four volcanological scenarios characterized by different plume intensities and uses 48-hrs weather forecasting data with a resolution of 7 km provided by the Italian Air Force.

  13. A tsunami early warning system for the coastal area modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebroto, Arief Andy; Sunaryo, Suhartanto, Ery

    2015-04-01

    The tsunami disaster is a potential disaster in the territory of Indonesia. Indonesia is an archipelago country and close to the ocean deep. The tsunami occurred in Aceh province in 2004. Early prevention efforts have been carried out. One of them is making "tsunami buoy" which has been developed by BPPT. The tool puts sensors on the ocean floor near the coast to detect earthquakes on the ocean floor. Detection results are transmitted via satellite by a transmitter placed floating on the sea surface. The tool will cost billions of dollars for each system. Another constraint was the transmitter theft "tsunami buoy" in the absence of guard. In this study of the system has a transmission system using radio frequency and focused on coastal areas where costs are cheaper, so that it can be applied at many beaches in Indonesia are potentially affected by the tsunami. The monitoring system sends the detection results to the warning system using a radio frequency with a capability within 3 Km. Test results on the sub module sensor monitoring system generates an error of 0.63% was taken 10% showed a good quality sensing. The test results of data transmission from the transceiver of monitoring system to the receiver of warning system produces 100% successful delivery and reception of data. The test results on the whole system to function 100% properly.

  14. Vulnerability analysis for a drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeluccetti, Irene; Demarchi, Alessandro; Perez, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) for drought are often based on risk models that do not, or marginally, take into account the vulnerability factor. The multifaceted nature of drought (hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural) is source of coexistence for different ways to measure this phenomenon and its effects. The latter, together with the complexity of impacts generated by this hazard, causes the current underdevelopment of drought EWS compared to other hazards. In Least Developed Countries, where drought events causes the highest numbers of affected people, the importance of correct monitoring and forecasting is considered essential. Existing early warning and monitoring systems for drought produced at different geographic levels, provide only in a few cases an actual spatial model that tries to describe the cause-effect link between where the hazard is detected and where impacts occur. Integrate vulnerability information in such systems would permit to better estimate affected zones and livelihoods, improving the effectiveness of produced hazard-related datasets and maps. In fact, the need of simplification and, in general, of a direct applicability of scientific outputs is still a matter of concern for field experts and early warning products end-users. Even if the surplus of hazard related information produced right after catastrophic events has, in some cases, led to the creation of specific data-sharing platforms, the conveyed meaning and usefulness of each product has not yet been addressed. The present work is an attempt to fill this gap which is still an open issue for the scientific community as well as for the humanitarian aid world. The study aims at conceiving a simplified vulnerability model to embed into an existing EWS for drought, which is based on the monitoring of vegetation phenological parameters and the Standardized Precipitation Index, both produced using free satellite derived datasets. The proposed vulnerability model includes (i) a

  15. An organizational early-warning system for safety, health, and environmental crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrivastava, P.

    1992-01-01

    Early-warning systems have played an important role in preventing major industrial accidents and technological disasters. These systems record critical operating and performance parameters and raise warnings or alarms if these parameters cross acceptable limits. Most early-warning systems used in hazardous industries focus on the technological system and to a lesser extent on their human operators. However, industrial disasters are caused not only by technological and human failure, but also by organizational, regulatory, infrastructural, and community preparedness failures. Hazardous industries can benefit from the development of early-warning systems that have a broader scope than the core technology. These systems could cover financial, human resource, organizational policies, regulatory, infrastructural, and community-related variables. This paper develops some basic concepts that can help build managerially useful early-warning systems for safety, health, and environmental (SHE) incidents. It identifies variables that should be tracked, the threshold levels for these variables, and possible managerial reactions to warnings

  16. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  17. Armenian earthquake WWER-440 NNPs and Turkish early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bektur, Y.

    1991-01-01

    On December 7, 1988 a severe earthquake occurred at Spitak, approximately 90-100 km far from the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant in Yerivan. Another one named Vrancea earthquake which occurred on 4 March, 1977. During this earthquake, the Kozloduj NPP (Bulgaria) was strongly damaged. Until this event, seismic loadings had received scant attention in the siting of WWER's. However after the Kozlodui damage Soviet designers changed their opinion. In this study, the seismicity of the Black Sea region and eastern Europe, seismic requirements for WWER's and the changes in plants for which to resistant against to the earthquake are given. During the earthquake radiation levels obtained by Turkish early warning system is also given

  18. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  19. Screening compounds for early warnings about environmental pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, R.L.

    1974-01-01

    A laboratory model ecosystem with a terrestrial-aquatic interface has been used to evaluate the potential environmental effects of nearly 100 micropollutants including insecticides, fungicides, plasticizers, heat transfer agents, flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, industrial chemicals and heavy metals. These have been evaluated largely by radiotracer techniques but atomic absorption spectrometry has also been used. Emphasis has been placed upon degradation pathways in a variety of organisms and upon quantitative data on biodegradation and bioaccumulation. The laboratory model ecosystem has substantial value as an environmental early warning element in evaluating the pollutant potential of various chemicals which may enter into the environment in trace amounts either purposely in various use patterns or accidentally from effluents of manufacture or waste products. (U.S.)

  20. Hybrid Intrusion Forecasting Framework for Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sehun; Shin, Seong-Jun; Kim, Hyunwoo; Kwon, Ki Hoon; Han, Younggoo

    Recently, cyber attacks have become a serious hindrance to the stability of Internet. These attacks exploit interconnectivity of networks, propagate in an instant, and have become more sophisticated and evolutionary. Traditional Internet security systems such as firewalls, IDS and IPS are limited in terms of detecting recent cyber attacks in advance as these systems respond to Internet attacks only after the attacks inflict serious damage. In this paper, we propose a hybrid intrusion forecasting system framework for an early warning system. The proposed system utilizes three types of forecasting methods: time-series analysis, probabilistic modeling, and data mining method. By combining these methods, it is possible to take advantage of the forecasting technique of each while overcoming their drawbacks. Experimental results show that the hybrid intrusion forecasting method outperforms each of three forecasting methods.

  1. Rapid earthquake magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2009-01-01

    Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)

  2. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m, we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m, identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m, then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m. For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the vegetated

  3. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarczyk, Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which prevent landslides.

  4. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  5. Landslide Geohazard Monitoring, Early Warning and Stabilization Control Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bednarczyk Zbigniew

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a presentation of landslide monitoring, early warning and remediation methods recommended for the Polish Carpathians. Instrumentation included standard and automatic on-line measurements with the real-time transfer of data to an Internet web server. The research was funded through EU Innovative Economy Programme and also by the SOPO Landslide Counteraction Project. The landslides investigated were characterized by relatively low rates of the displacements. These ranged from a few millimetres to several centimetres per year. Colluviums of clayey flysch deposits were of a soil-rock type with a very high plasticity and moisture content. The instrumentation consisted of 23 standard inclinometers set to depths of 5-21 m. The starting point of monitoring measurements was in January 2006. These were performed every 1-2 months over the period of 8 years. The measurements taken detected displacements from several millimetres to 40 cm set at a depth of 1-17 m. The modern, on-line monitoring and early warning system was installed in May 2010. The system is the first of its kind in Poland and only one of several such real-time systems in the world. The installation was working with the Local Road Authority in Gorlice. It contained three automatic field stations for investigation of landslide parameters to depths of 12-16 m and weather station. In-place tilt transducers and innovative 3D continuous inclinometer systems with sensors located every 0.5 m were used. It has the possibility of measuring a much greater range of movements compared to standard systems. The conventional and real-time data obtained provided a better recognition of the triggering parameters and the control of geohazard stabilizations. The monitoring methods chosen supplemented by numerical modelling could lead to more reliable forecasting of such landslides and could thus provide better control and landslide remediation possibilities also to stabilization works which

  6. Designing the upgrade of the Early Warning System in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cindro, M.; Mitic, D.; Stritar, A.

    2004-01-01

    When designing an upgrade of early warning network for radiological emergencies one has to consider physical criteria as well as technical and financial possibilities, making the system the best possible compromise between the above mentioned aspects. In the case of the Slovenian Early Warning System (EWS) upgrade, the design was even harder because of the need to implement the existing measuring sites into the new scheme. We plan to add 35 new locations with external radiation and meteorology measurements to the 42 already existing sites. In the article we will describe the selection criteria for measuring sites and the requirements for the measuring equipment as well as a discussion of the physical quantities that need to be measured. In addition to gamma dose rate measurements, which are essential for radiological emergencies, meteorological measurements also provide vital information for the assessment of the situation. Especially we describe an additional necessary meteorological equipment which has to be installed. Today's communication technologies offer many possibilities for data transfer from the measuring site to the central data gathering unit and one has to choose the most appropriate one, primarily considering reliability but also cost effectiveness. For that reason new measuring sites will be at the locations already used for meteorological measurements by the Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia. The Central Unit (CU) of such a network is the core of the system were all data have to be controlled, analysed and presented to the operator providing him with as much data as possible in a simple and clear fashion. (author)

  7. Development of Water Resources Drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, B. P. T.; Chen, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Signs of impending drought are often vague and result from hydrologic uncertainty. Because of this, determining the appropriate time to enforce water supply restrictions is difficult. This study proposes a drought early warning index (DEWI) that can help water resource managers to anticipate droughts so that preparations can be made to mitigate the impact of water shortages. This study employs the expected-deficit-rate of normal water supply conditions as the drought early warning index. An annual-use-reservoir-based water supply system in southern Taiwan was selected as the case study. The water supply simulation was based on reservoir storage at the evaluation time and the reservoir inflow series to cope with the actual water supply process until the end of the hydrologic year. A variety of deficits could be realized during different hydrologic years of records and assumptions of initial reservoir storage. These deficits are illustrated using the Average Shortage Rate (ASR) and the value of the ASR, namely the DEWI. The ASR is divided into 5 levels according to 5 deficit-tolerance combinations of each kind of annual demand. A linear regression model and a Neuro-Fuzzy Computing Technique model were employed to estimate the DEWI using selected factors deduced from supply-demand traits and available information, including: rainfall, reservoir inflow and storage data. The chosen methods mentioned above are used to explain a significant index is useful for both model development and decision making. Tests in the Tsengwen-Wushantou reservoir system showed this DEWI to perform very well in adopting the proper mitigation policy at the end of the wet season.

  8. An early warning system for flash floods in Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Abdelkhalek, A.; El Sammany, M.; Fahmi, A. H.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2009-09-01

    This paper describes the development of the Flash Flood Manager, abbreviated as FlaFloM. The Flash Flood Manager is an early warning system for flash floods which is developed under the EU LIFE project FlaFloM. It is applied to Wadi Watier located in the Sinai peninsula (Egypt) and discharges in the Red Sea at the local economic and tourist hub of Nuweiba city. FlaFloM consists of a chain of four modules: 1) Data gathering module, 2) Forecasting module, 3) Decision support module or DSS and 4) Warning module. Each module processes input data and consequently send the output to the following module. In case of a flash flood emergency, the final outcome of FlaFloM is a flood warning which is sent out to decision-makers. The ‘data gathering module’ collects input data from different sources, validates the input, visualise data and exports it to other modules. Input data is provided ideally as water stage (h), discharge (Q) and rainfall (R) through real-time field measurements and external forecasts. This project, however, as occurs in many arid flash flood prone areas, was confronted with a scarcity of data, and insufficient insight in the characteristics that release a flash flood. Hence, discharge and water stage data were not available. Although rainfall measurements are available through classical off line rain gauges, the sparse rain gauges network couldn’t catch the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall events. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed rainfall intensity raster maps (mm/hr) with an hourly time step and raster cell of 1*1km. These maps are derived through downscaling from two sources of global instruments: the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) and satellite estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ‘forecast module’ comprises three numerical models that, using data from the gathering module performs simulations on command: a rainfall-runoff model, a river flow model, and a flood model. A

  9. [Application of Big Data Mining Technology in Monitoring and Early-warning of Schistosomiasis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kun; Li, Shi-zhu

    2015-12-01

    The prevalence of schistosomiasis will soon be controlled to a low level in China. It is therefore imperative to establish a more sensitive and effective early warning system for schistosomiasis, so as to consolidate the achievements of the disease control. By covering four topics including the importance of early warning system for schistosomiasis and its research direction, as well as recent development in big data mining and its application in monitoring and early-warning of schistosomiasis, this review discusses the feasibility of data mining technology for monitoring and early warning of the disease. It is hoped that this technology would increase the efficacy of studies on monitoring and early warning, and promote the elimination of schistosomiasis in China.

  10. Earthquake Early Warning: A Prospective User's Perspective (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishenko, S. P.; Savage, W. U.; Johnson, T.

    2009-12-01

    With more than 25 million people at risk from high hazard faults in California alone, Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) presents a promising public safety and emergency response tool. EEW represents the real-time end of an earthquake information spectrum which also includes near real-time notifications of earthquake location, magnitude, and shaking levels; as well as geographic information system (GIS)-based products for compiling and visually displaying processed earthquake data such as ShakeMap and ShakeCast. Improvements to and increased multi-national implementation of EEW have stimulated interest in how such information products could be used in the future. Lifeline organizations, consisting of utilities and transportation systems, can use both onsite and regional EEW information as part of their risk management and public safety programs. Regional EEW information can provide improved situational awareness to system operators before automatic system protection devices activate, and allow trained personnel to take precautionary measures. On-site EEW is used for earthquake-actuated automatic gas shutoff valves, triggered garage door openers at fire stations, system controls, etc. While there is no public policy framework for preemptive, precautionary electricity or gas service shutdowns by utilities in the United States, gas shut-off devices are being required at the building owner level by some local governments. In the transportation sector, high-speed rail systems have already demonstrated the ‘proof of concept’ for EEW in several countries, and more EEW systems are being installed. Recently the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) began collaborating with the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) and others to assess the potential benefits of EEW technology to mass transit operations and emergency response in the San Francisco Bay region. A key issue in this assessment is that significant earthquakes are likely to occur close to or within the BART

  11. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-01-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  12. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-07-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  13. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  14. Signalling fiscal stress in the euro area - a country-specific early warning system

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández de Cos, Pablo; Koester, Gerrit B.; Moral-Benito, Enrique; Nickel, Christiane

    2014-01-01

    The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has increased the interest in early warning indicators, with the aim to indicate the build?up of fiscal stress early on and to facilitate crisis prevention by a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements to enhance existing early warning indicators for fiscal stress, especially for the euro area. We show that a country?specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early war...

  15. Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Operational early warning platform for extreme meteorological events Most natural disasters are related to extreme weather events (e.g. typhoons); weather conditions, however, are also highly relevant for humanitarian and disaster relief operations during and after other natural disaster like earthquakes. The internet service "Wettergefahren-Frühwarnung" (WF) provides various information on extreme weather events, especially when these events are associated with a high potential for large damage. The main focus of the platform is on Central Europe, but major events are also monitored worldwide on a daily routine. WF provides high-resolution forecast maps for many weather parameters which allow detailed and reliable predictions about weather conditions during the next days in the affected areas. The WF service became operational in February 2004 and is part of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) since 2007. At the end of 2011, CEDIM embarked a new type of interdisciplinary disaster research termed as forensic disaster analysis (FDA) in near real time. In case of an imminent extreme weather event WF plays an important role in CEDIM's FDA group. It provides early and precise information which are always available and updated several times during a day and gives advice and assists with articles and reports on extreme events.

  16. Diagnosis and Early Warning of Wind Turbine Faults Based on Cluster Analysis Theory and Modified ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quan Zhou

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The construction of large-scale wind farms results in a dramatic increase of wind turbine (WT faults. The failure mode is also becoming increasingly complex. This study proposes a new model for early warning and diagnosis of WT faults to solve the problem of Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA systems, given that the traditional threshold method cannot provide timely warning. First, the characteristic quantity of fault early warning and diagnosis analyzed by clustering analysis can obtain in advance abnormal data in the normal threshold range by considering the effects of wind speed. Based on domain knowledge, Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS is then modified to establish the fault early warning and diagnosis model. This approach improves the accuracy of the model under the condition of absent and sparse training data. Case analysis shows that the effect of the early warning and diagnosis model in this study is better than that of the traditional threshold method.

  17. Earthquake Early Warning Management based on Client-Server using Primary Wave data from Vibrating Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laumal, F. E.; Nope, K. B. N.; Peli, Y. S.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning is a warning mechanism before an actual incident occurs, can be implemented on natural events such as tsunamis or earthquakes. Earthquakes are classified in tectonic and volcanic types depend on the source and nature. The tremor in the form of energy propagates in all directions as Primary and Secondary waves. Primary wave as initial earthquake vibrations propagates longitudinally, while the secondary wave propagates like as a sinusoidal wave after Primary, destructive and as a real earthquake. To process the primary vibration data captured by the earthquake sensor, a network management required client computer to receives primary data from sensors, authenticate and forward to a server computer to set up an early warning system. With the water propagation concept, a method of early warning system has been determined in which some sensors are located on the same line, sending initial vibrations as primary data on the same scale and the server recommended to the alarm sound as an early warning.

  18. A European precipitation index for extreme rain-storm and flash flood early warning

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta

    2012-01-01

    Extreme rain-storms are known for triggering devastating flash floods in various regions of Europe and particularly along the Mediterranean coasts. Despite recent notable advances in weather forecasting, most operational early warning systems for extreme rainstorms and flash floods are based on rainfall estimation, rather than on forecasts. As a result, warning lead times are bounded to few hours and warnings are usually issued when the event is already taking place. This work proposes a n...

  19. USGS Earthquake Program GPS Use Case : Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-12

    USGS GPS receiver use case. Item 1 - High Precision User (federal agency with Stafford Act hazard alert responsibilities for earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides nationwide). Item 2 - Description of Associated GPS Application(s): The USGS Eart...

  20. EURADOS intercomparison 2006 to harmonise European early warning dosimetry systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombrowski, H.; Neumaier, S.; Thompson, I. M. G.; Wissmann, F.

    2009-01-01

    In 2006, the European Radiation Dosimetry (EURADOS) Working Group on Environmental Radiation Monitoring (WG3) organised a third European intercomparison of dosimetry systems operated in national early warning networks. Similar to the intercomparisons in 1999 and 2002, the main aim of this exercise was to support the process of harmonisation of area monitoring in Europe by providing the network operators with basic information on the calibration and performance of their dosimetry systems. In order to characterise these systems, their following basic parameters were investigated: the response to terrestrial and cosmic radiation, the detectors' inherent background, the response at low dose rates, the energy dependence of the response as well as the sensitivity of the detector systems to small changes of the dose rate in a natural environmental radiation field. In the 2006 EURADOS intercomparison, scientists from seven countries participated to study the characteristics of 11 detector systems. All results are presented in terms of the operational quantity ambient dose equivalent, H * (10). The advent of this quantity has caused the development of new detector systems for area monitoring. Some of these new systems participated in a EURADOS intercomparison for the first time. The results are consistently presented together with uncertainties so that statistical effects can be distinguished from real detector features, which improves the interpretation of the results. By using the results of this intercomparison, some detectors were re-calibrated. The achievable improvements concerning harmonisation in dose-rate measurements in the natural environment are discussed. (authors)

  1. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michoud, C.; Bazin, S.; Blikra, L. H.; Derron, M.-H.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2013-10-01

    Landslide early warning systems (EWSs) have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established) and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  2. Reality Check Algorithm for Complex Sources in Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karakus, G.; Heaton, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    In almost all currently operating earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, presently available seismic data are used to predict future shaking. In most cases, location and magnitude are estimated. We are developing an algorithm to test the goodness of that prediction in real time. We monitor envelopes of acceleration, velocity, and displacement; if they deviate significantly from the envelope predicted by Cua's envelope gmpe's then we declare an overfit (perhaps false alarm) or an underfit (possibly a larger event has just occurred). This algorithm is designed to provide a robust measure and to work as quickly as possible in real-time. We monitor the logarithm of the ratio between the envelopes of the ongoing observed event and the envelopes derived from the predicted envelopes of channels of ground motion of the Virtual Seismologist (VS) (Cua, G. and Heaton, T.). Then, we recursively filter this result with a simple running median (de-spiking operator) to minimize the effect of one single high value. Depending on the result of the filtered value we make a decision such as if this value is large enough (e.g., >1), then we would declare, 'that a larger event is in progress', or similarly if this value is small enough (e.g., <-1), then we would declare a false alarm. We design the algorithm to work at a wide range of amplitude scales; that is, it should work for both small and large events.

  3. Mountains as early warning indicators of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    The panoramic splendor and complexity of mountain environments have inspired and challenged humans for centuries. These areas have been variously perceived as physical structures to be conquered, as sites of spiritual inspiration, and as some of the last untamed natural places on Earth. In our time, the perception that "mountains are forever" may provide solace to those seeking stability in a rapidly changing world. However, changes in the hydrology and in the abundance and species composition of the native flora and fauna of mountain ecosystems are potential bellwethers of global change, because these systems have a propensity to amplify environmental changes within specific portions of this landscape. Mountain areas are thus sentinels of climate change. We are seeing effects today in case histories I present from the Himalaya's, Andes, Alps, and Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, these ecosystem changes are occurring in mountain areas before they occur in downstream ecosystems. Thus, mountains are early warning indicators of perturbations such as climate change. The sensitivity of mountain ecosystems begs for enhanced protection and worldwide protection. Our understanding of the processes that control mountain ecosystems—climate interactions, snowmelt runoff, biotic diversity, nutrient cycling—is much less developed compared to downstream ecosystems where human habitation and development has resulted in large investments in scientific knowledge to sustain health and agriculture. To address these deficiencies, I propose the formation of an international mountain research consortium.

  4. Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

  5. Spatial early warning signals in a lake manipulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butitta, Vince L.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Loken, Luke; Pace, Michael L.; Stanley, Emily H.

    2017-01-01

    Rapid changes in state have been documented for many of Earth's ecosystems. Despite a growing toolbox of methods for detecting declining resilience or early warning indicators (EWIs) of ecosystem transitions, these methods have rarely been evaluated in whole-ecosystem trials using reference ecosystems. In this study, we experimentally tested EWIs of cyanobacteria blooms based on changes in the spatial structure of a lake. We induced a cyanobacteria bloom by adding nutrients to an experimental lake and mapped fine-resolution spatial patterning of cyanobacteria using a mobile sensor platform. Prior to the bloom, we detected theoretically predicted spatial EWIs based on variance and spatial autocorrelation, as well as a new index based on the extreme values. Changes in EWIs were not discernible in an unenriched reference lake. Despite the fluid environment of a lake where spatial heterogeneity driven by biological processes may be overwhelmed by physical mixing, spatial EWIs detected an approaching bloom suggesting the utility of spatial metrics for signaling ecological thresholds.

  6. Earthquake Early Warning: New Strategies for Seismic Hardware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allardice, S.; Hill, P.

    2017-12-01

    Implementing Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) triggering algorithms into seismic networks has been a hot topic of discussion for some years now. With digitizer technology now available, such as the Güralp Minimus, with on average 40-60ms delay time (latency) from earthquake origin to issuing an alert the next step is to provide network operators with a simple interface for on board parameter calculations from a seismic station. A voting mechanism is implemented on board which mitigates the risk of false positives being communicated. Each Minimus can be configured to with a `score' from various sources i.e. Z channel on seismometer, N/S E/W channels on accelerometer and MEMS inside Minimus. If the score exceeds the set threshold then an alert is sent to the `Master Minimus'. The Master Minimus within the network will also be configured as to when the alert should be issued i.e. at least 3 stations must have triggered. Industry standard algorithms focus around the calculation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) and C. Calculating these single station parameters on-board in order to stream only the results could help network operators with possible issues, such as restricted bandwidth. Developments on the Minimus allow these parameters to be calculated and distributed through Common Alert Protocol (CAP). CAP is the XML based data format used for exchanging and describing public warnings and emergencies. Whenever the trigger conditions are met the Minimus can send a signed UDP packet to the configured CAP receiver which can then send the alert via SMS, e-mail or CAP forwarding. Increasing network redundancy is also a consideration when developing these features, therefore the forwarding CAP message can be sent to multiple destinations. This allows for a hierarchical approach by which the single station (or network) parameters can be streamed to another Minimus, or data centre, or both, so that there is no

  7. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana de Oliveira Freitas Miranda

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. Method: a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. Results: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. Conclusion: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied.

  8. Drought early warning system in I.R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samadi, Sina; Jamali, Javad B.; Javanmard, Soheila

    2004-01-01

    Drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate; it occurs in virtually all climatic regimes. It occurs in high as well as low rainfall areas. Drought is the consequence of a natural reduction in the amount of precipitation received over an extended period of time, usually a season or more in length, although other climatic factors (such as high temperatures, high winds, and low relative humidity) are often associated with it in many regions of the world and can significantly aggravate the severity of the event. Most parts of the 1. R. of Iran have a high degree of aridity and pronounced rainfall variability in large parts of their territories and are therefore highly vulnerable to drought. Therefore, drought is one of greatest natural disasters in our country. Among all natural disasters, droughts occur the most frequently, have the longest duration, cover the largest area, and cause the greatest losses in agricultural production. The quantification of impacts and the provision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for drought than they are for other natural hazards. Since, the drought is a normal part of climate, it is difficult to determine its onset, development, and end. This fact emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive monitoring or early warning systems. Drought prediction (monthly, seasonal, or yearly trends) is particularly useful for the drought planning and mitigation. Drought Early Warning System is applied as a pilot study during the last two years. The NDEWSI is based on the monitoring drought indices, such as SPI, Palmer and NDVI, and preparedness, where will be discussed in this paper. In this paper, we have presented a brief drought analysis using the SPI and demonstrated its potential use for drought analysis with minimal data requirements. It is our view that development of a drought monitoring system, based largely on meteorological and climatic information, can be a great help for early assessment of drought impacts in

  9. The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated

  10. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  11. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  12. USAID Expands eMODIS Coverage for Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkerson, C.; Meyer, D. J.; Evenson, K.; Merritt, M.

    2011-12-01

    Food security in countries at risk is monitored by U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through its Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) using many methods including Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data processed by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) into eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products. Near-real time production is used comparatively with trends derived from the eMODIS archive to operationally monitor vegetation anomalies indicating threatened cropland and rangeland conditions. eMODIS production over Central America and the Caribbean (CAMCAR) began in 2009, and processes 10-day NDVI composites every 5 days from surface reflectance inputs produced using predicted spacecraft and climatology information at Land and Atmosphere Near real time Capability for Earth Observing Systems (EOS) (LANCE). These expedited eMODIS composites are backed by a parallel archive of precision-based NDVI calculated from surface reflectance data ordered through Level 1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS). Success in the CAMCAR region led to the recent expansion of eMODIS production to include Africa in 2010, and Central Asia in 2011. Near-real time 250-meter products are available for each region on the last day of an acquisition interval (generally before midnight) from an anonymous file transfer protocol (FTP) distribution site (ftp://emodisftp.cr.usgs.gov/eMODIS). The FTP site concurrently hosts the regional historical collections (2000 to present) which are also searchable using the USGS Earth Explorer (http://edcsns17.cr.usgs.gov/NewEarthExplorer). As eMODIS coverage continues to grow, these geographically gridded, georeferenced tagged image file format (GeoTIFF) NDVI composites increase their utility as effective tools for operational monitoring of near-real time vegetation data against historical trends.

  13. Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

    2017-06-22

    Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

  14. Early Warning Indicators for Population-Based Monitoring of HIV Drug Resistance in 6 African Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sigaloff, Kim C. E.; Hamers, Raph L.; Menke, Jack; Labib, Moheb; Siwale, Margaret; Ive, Prudence; Botes, Mariette E.; Kityo, Cissy; Mandaliya, Kishor; Wellington, Maureen; Osibogun, Akin; Geskus, Ronald B.; Stevens, Wendy S.; van Vugt, Michèle; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.

    2012-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA testing and HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) testing are not routinely available for therapeutic monitoring of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. World Health Organization HIVDR early warning indicators (EWIs) assess ART

  15. An evaluation of the Triage Early Warning Score in an urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-12-03

    Dec 3, 2013 ... Original Research: An evaluation of the Triage Early Warning Score in an urban accident and emergency department. 69 ... This can potentially improve the gap .... were defined as “discharge within 24 hours of admission,.

  16. Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: stylized facts and early warning indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babecký, J.; Havránek, T.; Matějů, Jakub; Rusnák, M.; Šmídková, K.; Vašíček, B.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 15, December (2014), s. 1-17 ISSN 1572-3089 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : crises * developed countries * early warning indicators Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.506, year: 2014

  17. Banking, debt, and currency crises in developed countries: stylized facts and early warning indicators

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babecký, J.; Havránek, T.; Matějů, Jakub; Rusnák, M.; Šmídková, K.; Vašíček, B.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 15, December (2014), s. 1-17 ISSN 1572-3089 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : crises * developed countries * early warning indicators Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.506, year: 2014

  18. ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF EARLY WARNING CONCEPT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Early warning system (EWS based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

  19. The maternal early warning criteria: a proposal from the national partnership for maternal safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mhyre, Jill M; D'Oria, Robyn; Hameed, Afshan B; Lappen, Justin R; Holley, Sharon L; Hunter, Stephen K; Jones, Robin L; King, Jeffrey C; D'Alton, Mary E

    2014-01-01

    Case reviews of maternal death have revealed a concerning pattern of delay in recognition of hemorrhage, hypertensive crisis, sepsis, venous thromboembolism, and heart failure. Early-warning systems have been proposed to facilitate timely recognition, diagnosis, and treatment for women developing critical illness. A multidisciplinary working group convened by the National Partnership for Maternal Safety used a consensus-based approach to define The Maternal Early Warning Criteria, a list of abnormal parameters that indicate the need for urgent bedside evaluation by a clinician with the capacity to escalate care as necessary in order to pursue diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. This commentary reviews the evidence supporting the use of early-warning systems, describes The Maternal Early Warning Criteria, and provides considerations for local implementation. © 2014 AWHONN, the Association of Women's Health, Obstetric and Neonatal Nurses.

  20. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  1. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2014-08-29

    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  2. Study on the early warning mechanism for the security of blast furnace hearths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hong-bo; Huo, Shou-feng; Cheng, Shu-sen

    2013-04-01

    The campaign life of blast furnace (BF) hearths has become the limiting factor for safety and high efficiency production of modern BFs. However, the early warning mechanism of hearth security has not been clear. In this article, based on heat transfer calculations, heat flux and erosion monitoring, the features of heat flux and erosion were analyzed and compared among different types of hearths. The primary detecting elements, mathematical models, evaluating standards, and warning methods were discussed. A novel early warning mechanism with the three-level quantificational standards was proposed for BF hearth security.

  3. The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fengru

    2018-01-01

    This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

  4. Evolution of an Early Illness Warning System to Monitor Frail Elders in Independent Living

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory L. Alexander

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of an early illness warning system used by an interdisciplinary team composed of clinicians and engineers in an independent living facility. The early illness warning system consists of algorithms which analyze resident activity patterns obtained from sensors embedded in residents' apartments. The engineers designed an automated reasoning system to generate clinically relevant alerts which are sent to clinicians when significant changes occur in the sensor data, for example declining activity levels. During January 2010 through July 2010, clinicians and engineers conducted weekly iterative review cycles of the early illness warning system to discuss concerns about the functionality of the warning system, to recommend solutions for the concerns, and to evaluate the implementation of the solutions. A total of 45 concerns were reviewed during this period. Iterative reviews resulted in greater efficiencies and satisfaction for clinician users who were monitoring elder activity patterns.

  5. Should We Stay Or Should We Go Now? Hazard Warnings, Risk Perception, and Evacuation Decisions at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala During the 2010 Eruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, H. N.; Rouleau, M.

    2017-12-01

    Pacaya volcano, in Guatemala, presents considerable risk to nearby communities and in May 2010, the volcano experienced its largest eruption in more than a decade. The eruption damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes, injured scores of people with one fatality, and prompted the evacuation of approximately 2000 people from several communities. During this eruption crisis, people living within at-risk communities were presented with the choice to evacuate or remain in the hazard zone. Many chose not to leave. Using quantitative methodologies, this research investigates evacuation decisions through causal relationships between hazard warnings, evacuation orders, risk perception, evacuation intention and behavior, and attempts to understand why some people chose to stay in harm's-way. In October 2016, we conducted a door-to-door survey administered to 172 households in eight communities within 5 km of the active vent. Participants were asked to rank factors that influenced their decision to evacuate or not, their level of trust in emergency management agencies, and the intention to evacuate during a future crisis. Initial analysis suggests that many people have confidence in emergency management agencies and information from volcano scientists; however, during the 2010 eruption, warning messages and evacuation orders were based on previous eruption patterns and tephra distribution and therefore disseminated differentially to at-risk communities. This likely delayed evacuation decisions by households in the communities that were most affected by the eruption. The data also suggest that while many households perceive evacuation as the most effective protective action, the perceived risk to one's home and property may play a more important role in the decision making process. We will discuss these results as well as communication strategies between agencies and communities, and how to better facilitate more effective and successful evacuations during future eruption crises

  6. Implementing paediatric early warning scores systems in the Netherlands: future implications.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, J.F. de; Damen, N.; Loos, E. de; Steeg, L. van de; Rosias, P.; Bruijn, M.; Goorhuis, J.; Wagner, C.

    2018-01-01

    Background: Paediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS) are increasingly being used for early identification and management of clinical deterioration in paediatric patients. A PEWS system includes scores, cut-off points and appropriate early intervention. In 2011, The Dutch Ministry of Health advised

  7. Implementation of a Seismic Early Warning System in Portugal Mainland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madureira, Guilherme; Carrilho, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    Portugal mainland is located near the border between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, whose interaction is the main responsible for a significant seismic activity in the area, with historical occurrence of several catastrophic events (e.g. Lisbon 1755 earthquake [Mag 8.7]), most of which haviguilhng epicenter rise in submerged area, located in the Cadiz Gulf and Southwest of San Vincent Cape. Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is presently a very effective concept to be applied in the mitigation of the effects caused by large earthquakes. For the mentioned area a feasibility study of a EEWS was made in the ALERT-ES project. It was found that the system could be effective to protect cities and infrastructures located at larger distances (ex: Lisbon) from the areas, located south and southwest of PT mainland, where the larger earthquakes are expected to be originated. Considering the use of a new strong-motion network recently implemented in the south of PT mainland, we concluded that the lead-times could be improved. We opted by the implementation of the well known computational platform PRESTO. In the adaptation of the mentioned platform to the local reality one of the challenges was the computation of fast moment magnitude estimates, because regional attenuation must be properly considered, and a specific study was made on this issue. The several simulations that were performed showed a reasonably good performance of the system, both on magnitude evaluation and epicentre location. However we also noted that the problems in the acquisition instruments are a very important source of disturbance in the performance of the EEWS, pointing to a need of a very accurate quality control of the strong-motion network. Considering end-users, we are also developing specific software for intensity estimation at the target places and to trigger visual and audio alerts in accordance to the expected level of shaking. This work is supported by the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM, Agreement Number

  8. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  9. Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

    1996-02-01

    An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

  10. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

  11. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  12. Early Archean serpentine mud volcanoes at Isua, Greenland, as a niche for early life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, Marie-Laure; Quitté, Ghylaine; Fujii, Toshiyuki; Rosing, Minik T; Reynard, Bruno; Moynier, Frederic; Douchet, Chantal; Albarède, Francis

    2011-10-25

    The Isua Supracrustal Belt, Greenland, of Early Archean age (3.81-3.70 Ga) represents the oldest crustal segment on Earth. Its complex lithology comprises an ophiolite-like unit and volcanic rocks reminiscent of boninites, which tie Isua supracrustals to an island arc environment. We here present zinc (Zn) isotope compositions measured on serpentinites and other rocks from the Isua supracrustal sequence and on serpentinites from modern ophiolites, midocean ridges, and the Mariana forearc. In stark contrast to modern midocean ridge and ophiolite serpentinites, Zn in Isua and Mariana serpentinites is markedly depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to the igneous average. Based on recent results of Zn isotope fractionation between coexisting species in solution, the Isua serpentinites were permeated by carbonate-rich, high-pH hydrothermal solutions at medium temperature (100-300 °C). Zinc isotopes therefore stand out as a pH meter for fossil hydrothermal solutions. The geochemical features of the Isua fluids resemble the interstitial fluids sampled in the mud volcano serpentinites of the Mariana forearc. The reduced character and the high pH inferred for these fluids make Archean serpentine mud volcanoes a particularly favorable setting for the early stabilization of amino acids.

  13. Early Warning Signs of Suicide in Service Members Who Engage in Unauthorized Acts of Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    impulsive behaviors, particularly substance abuse. In terms of social early warning signs, the suicide -only and suicide /violence groups were more likely...behaviors associated with both suicide and violence also provides evidence for overlap in their warning signs. A host of studies suggests that impulsivity ...most prominent among impulsive behaviors associated with suicide and violence; a host of research shows that increased or excessive substance use is

  14. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  15. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  16. Tsunamis: Detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.

    upon, which are relevant to tsunami warning, include public announcement siren systems and numerical models. Special attention has been paid to the submarine cable-mounted systems. Due importance has been attached to the instrumented era which... of appropriate emergency measures. Whereas satellite-based reporting is one option, a simple and cost-effective methodology for real-time reporting of tsunami from coastal regions and islands is cellular based GPRS technology. From an operational point...

  17. Early Warnings of Cyber Threats in Online Discussions

    OpenAIRE

    Sapienza, Anna; Bessi, Alessandro; Damodaran, Saranya; Shakarian, Paulo; Lerman, Kristina; Ferrara, Emilio

    2018-01-01

    We introduce a system for automatically generating warnings of imminent or current cyber-threats. Our system leverages the communication of malicious actors on the darkweb, as well as activity of cyber security experts on social media platforms like Twitter. In a time period between September, 2016 and January, 2017, our method generated 661 alerts of which about 84% were relevant to current or imminent cyber-threats. In the paper, we first illustrate the rationale and workflow of our system,...

  18. Research on early-warning index of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Gu, Chongshi; Bao, Tengfei; Cui, Zhenming; Kan, Kan

    2016-01-01

    Warning indicators of the dam body's temperature are required for the real-time monitoring of the service conditions of concrete dams to ensure safety and normal operations. Warnings theories are traditionally targeted at a single point which have limitations, and the scientific warning theories on global behavior of the temperature field are non-existent. In this paper, first, in 3D space, the behavior of temperature field has regional dissimilarity. Through the Ward spatial clustering method, the temperature field was divided into regions. Second, the degree of order and degree of disorder of the temperature monitoring points were defined by the probability method. Third, the weight values of monitoring points of each regions were explored via projection pursuit. Forth, a temperature entropy expression that can describe degree of order of the spatial temperature field in concrete dams was established. Fifth, the early-warning index of temperature entropy was set up according to the calculated sequential value of temperature entropy. Finally, project cases verified the feasibility of the proposed theories. The early-warning index of temperature entropy is conducive to the improvement of early-warning ability and safety management levels during the operation of high concrete dams.

  19. Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic...... regimes. Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term. For early warnings, all available EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI......) formulations were used, by linking daily maximum wind speeds to EFI values for different forecast horizons. From all possible EFI schemes deployed for issuing early warnings, the highest skill was found for the Gust Factor formulation (EFI-10FGI). Using EFI-10FGI, the corresponding 99% threshold could provide...

  20. The use of early warning scores to recognise and respond to patient deterioration in district nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Guy; Lusher, Adele

    2018-02-02

    This discussion article focuses on the literature surrounding early warning scoring systems and their use in primary care, specifically within district nursing. Patient deterioration is a global concern, associated with high mortality rates and avoidable deaths. Early recognition and response by nursing and other health care staff has been attributed to early warning scoring systems (EWSS) and tools. However, the use of equivalent tools in the community appears to be lacking. This review concludes that there is no consensus over the use of EWSS in district nursing and culture of practice is varied, rather than standardised.

  1. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM DAN PERTUMBUHAN PENDAPATAN KONTRIBUSI PADA PERUSAHAAN ASURANSI JIWA SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Oktaviani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The background of this study was the lack of awareness Indonesian society toward syariah life insurance andit needed to be investigated whether there was a problem on its financial instruments by using Early WarningSystem ratio. The purpose of this study was to prove the influence of Early Warning System ratio for contributionrevenue growth syariah life insurance companies in Indonesia period 2010-2013. The sampling techniqueused was purposive sampling. Samples that acquired the criteria were 10 companies. Data were analyzedusing multiple linear regression. The ratio of the Early Warning System consisted of 6 solvencies: solvencymargin ratio, change in surplus ratio, return on investment ratio, liquidity ratio, agent’s balance to surplusratio and technical ratio. The result of this study was Early Warning System ratio influenced simultaneouslyon contribution revenue growth ratio and partial contribution of technical ratio influenced positively tocontribution revenue growth ratio. So, Early Warning System ratio could be applied in order to increasecontribution revenue growth of life insurance syariah units companies.

  2. Strategic framework for socioeconomic viability of community-based early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, M.J.C. van den; Posthumus, A.L.

    2014-01-01

    Christian Aid, Cordaid, PVGS and Practical Action established a community-based early warning system for cross-border floods between India and Nepal in 45 Indian villages. The project will scale to 95 villages early 2016. The number of stakeholders and organizational levels of this system with four

  3. 78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-12

    ... processes and student outcomes. The project responds to a need expressed by members of the REL Midwest's Ohio Dropout Prevention Alliance for clear information about the efficacy of early warning systems. Despite the strong foundational research on the use of early indicators to identify students who are at...

  4. Model slope infiltration experiments for shallow landslides early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damiano, E.; Greco, R.; Guida, A.; Olivares, L.; Picarelli, L.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of fast landslides has become more and more dangerous during the last decades, due to the increased density of settlements, industrial plants and infrastructures. Such problem is particularly worrying in Campania (Southern Italy), where the fast population growth led a diffuse building activity without planning: indeed, recent flowslides caused hundreds of victims and heavy damages to buildings, roads and other infrastructures. Large mountainous areas in Campania are mantled by loose pyroclastic granular soils up to a depth of a few meters from top soil surface. These soils have usually a grain size that falls in the domain of silty sands, including pumice interbeds (gravelly sands), with saturated hydraulic conductivities up to the order of 10-1 cm/min. Such deposits often cover steep slopes, which stability is guaranteed by the apparent cohesion due to suction under unsaturated conditions, that are the most common conditions for these slopes [Olivares and Picarelli, 2001]. Whereas rainfall infiltration causes soil to approach saturation, suction vanishes and slope failure may occur. Besides soil physical properties, landslide triggering is influenced by several factors, such as rainfall intensity, soil initial moisture and suction, slope inclination, boundary conditions. Whereas slope failure occurs with soil close to being saturated, landslide may develop in form of fast and destructive flowslide. Calibration of reliable mathematical models of such a complex phenomenon requires availability of experimental observations of the major variables of interest, such as soil moisture and suction, soil deformation and displacements, pore water pressure, during the entire process of infiltration until slope failure. Due to the sudden trigger and extremely rapid propagation of such type of landslides, such data sets are rarely available for natural slopes where flowslides occurred. As a consequence landslide risk assessment and early warning in Campania rely on

  5. Paediatric Early Warning Score - A multi-center randomized controlled intervention study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Claus Sixtus; Aagaard, Hanne; Olesen, Hanne Vebert

    Paediatric Early Warning System on evolving critical illness and intervention in hospitalised children; a regional multicentre study on implementation of a Paediatric Early Warning System Background: Critical illness in the patient and death can potentially be predicted and prevented. Deterioration...... is critically ill are related to the child’s symptoms of serious illness often being uncharacteristic. Children can seem relatively unaffected until a short time before circulatory insufficiency and cardiac arrest. Thus, there is a need for developing and investigating if an Paediatric Early Warning System...... of the intervention and evaluation. The study involves all paediatric departments and some acute departments in Central Denmark Region. The project both includes quantitative studies and a qualitative evaluation study. The studies will have different designs: • Registry study - exploring and describing life...

  6. Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

    2018-01-01

    The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

  7. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  8. Landslide early warning system prototype with GIS analysis indicates by soil movement and rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artha, Y.; Julian, E. S.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this paper is developing and testing of landslide early warning system. The early warning system uses accelerometersas ground movement and tilt-sensing device and a water flow sensor. A microcentroller is used to process the input signal and activate the alarm. An LCD is used to display the acceleration in x,y and z axis. When the soil moved or shifted and rainfall reached 100 mm/day, the alarm rang and signal were sentto the monitoring center via a telemetry system.Data logging information and GIS spatial data can be monitored remotely as tables and graphics as well as in the form of geographical map with the help of web-GIS interface. The system were tested at Kampung Gerendong, Desa Putat Nutug, Kecamatan Ciseeng, Kabupaten Bogor. This area has 3.15 cumulative score, which mean vulnerable to landslide. The results show that the early warning system worked as planned.

  9. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-07-10

    to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com

  10. An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

    2009-04-01

    Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords

  11. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  12. RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshpande, Alina [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-13

    This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

  13. Towards an Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Vanacore, E. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Caribbean region (CR) has a documented history of large damaging earthquakes and tsunamis that have affected coastal areas, including the events of Jamaica in 1692, Virgin Islands in 1867, Puerto Rico in 1918, the Dominican Republic in 1946 and Haiti in 2010. There is clear evidence that tsunamis have been triggered by large earthquakes that deformed the ocean floor around the Caribbean Plate boundary. The CR is monitored jointly by national/regional/local seismic, geodetic and sea level networks. All monitoring institutions are participating in the UNESCO ICG/Caribe EWS, the purpose of this initiative is to minimize loss of life and destruction of property, and to mitigate against catastrophic economic impacts via promoting local research, real time (RT) earthquake, geodetic and sea level data sharing and improving warning capabilities and enhancing education and outreach strategies. Currently more than, 100 broad-band seismic, 65 sea levels and 50 GPS high rate stations are available in real or near real-time. These real-time streams are used by Local/Regional or Worldwide detection and warning institutions to provide earthquake source parameters in a timely manner. Currently, any Caribbean event detected to have a magnitude greater than 4.5 is evaluated, and sea level is measured, by the TWC for tsumanigenic potential. The regional cooperation is motivated both by research interests as well as geodetic, seismic and tsunami hazard monitoring and warning. It will allow the imaging of the tectonic structure of the Caribbean region to a high resolution which will consequently permit further understanding of the seismic source properties for moderate and large events and the application of this knowledge to procedures of civil protection. To reach its goals, the virtual network has been designed following the highest technical standards: BB sensors, 24 bits A/D converters with 140 dB dynamic range, real-time telemetry. Here we will discuss the state of the PR

  14. Geoethical considerations in early warning of flooding and landslides: Case study from Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoli, Graziella; Kleivane Krøgli, Ingeborg; Dahl, Mads Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Nykjær Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs the national early warning systems (EWS) for flooding and shallow landslides in Norway. The two EWSs have been operational since the late 1980s and 2013 respectively, and are based on weather forecasts, various hydro-meteorological prognosis and expert evaluation. Daily warning levels and related information to the public is prepared and presented through custom build internet platforms. In natural hazards sciences, the risk of a specific threat is defined as the product of hazard and consequence. In this context an EWS is intended to work as a mitigation measure in lowering the consequence and thus the risk of the threat. One of several factors determining the quality of such an EWS, is how warnings are communicated to the public. In contrary to what is common practice in some other countries, experts working with EWS in Norway cannot be held personally responsible for consequences of warnings being issued or not. However, the communication of warnings for flooding and landslides at NVE still implies many considerations of geoethical kind. Which are the consequences today for the forecasters when erroneous warning messages are sent because based on a poorly documented analysis? What is for example the most responsible way to describe uncertainties in warnings issued? What is the optimal compromise between avoiding false alarms and not sending out a specific warning? Is it responsible to rely on a "gut feeling"? Some authorities complain in receiving warning messages too often. Is it responsible to begin notifying these, only in cases of "high hazard level" and no longer in cases of "moderate hazard level"? Is it acceptable to issue general warnings for large geographical areas without being able to pinpoint the treat on local scale? What responsibility lies within the EWS in recommending evacuation or other practical measures to local authorities? By presenting how early warnings of flooding and

  15. HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

    2013-02-01

    Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

  16. NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Manneela

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  17. Real-time earthquake monitoring: Early warning and rapid response

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    A panel was established to investigate the subject of real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) and suggest recommendations on the feasibility of using a real-time earthquake warning system to mitigate earthquake damage in regions of the United States. The findings of the investigation and the related recommendations are described in this report. A brief review of existing real-time seismic systems is presented with particular emphasis given to the current California seismic networks. Specific applications of a real-time monitoring system are discussed along with issues related to system deployment and technical feasibility. In addition, several non-technical considerations are addressed including cost-benefit analysis, public perceptions, safety, and liability.

  18. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  19. Toward a cross-border early-warning system for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Stankiewicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.

  20. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  1. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

    2012-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  2. Modeling of dengue occurrences early warning involving temperature and rainfall factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prama Setia Putra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To understand dengue transmission process and its vector dynamics and to develop early warning model of dengue occurrences based on mosquito population and host-vector threshold values considering temperature and rainfall. Methods: To obtain the early warning model, mosquito population and host-vector models are developed initially. Both are developed using differential equations. Basic offspring number (R0m and basic reproductive ratio (R0d which are the threshold values are derived from the models under constant parameters assumption. Temperature and rainfall effects on mosquito and dengue are performed in entomological and disease transmission parameters. Some of parameters are set as functions of temperature or rainfall while other parameters are set to be constant. Hereafter, both threshold values are computed using those parameters. Monthly dengue occurrences data are categorized as zero and one values which one means the outbreak does occur in that month. Logistics regression is chosen to bridge the threshold values and categorized data. Threshold values are considered as the input of early warning model. Semarang city is selected as the sample to develop this early waning model. Results: The derived threshold values which are R 0 m and R 0 d show to have relation that mosquito as dengue vector affects transmission of the disease. Result of the early warning model will be a value between zero and one. It is categorized as outbreak does occur when the value is larger than 0.5 while other is categorized as outbreak does not occur. By using single predictor, the model can perform 68% accuracy approximately. Conclusions: The extinction of mosquitoes will be followed by disease disappearance while mosquitoes existence can lead to disease free or endemic states. Model simulations show that mosquito population are more affected by weather factors than human. Involving weather factors implicitly in the threshold value and linking them

  3. Denmark's on - line early warning radiation monitoring network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walmod-Larsen, O.; Lippert, J.

    1990-01-01

    In Denmark an emergency response coordination committee was set up to cope with the problems after the Chernobyl accident with participation of all relevant authorities. For help in an emergency situation the ARGOS (Accident Reporting and Guiding Operational System), system will be put into use. The ARGOS emergency evaluation computer system, which has been developed in cooperation with the Danish Environmental Protection Agency, is in operation in connection with the emergency planning for the east region of Denmark with regard to the Swedish nuclear power plant operating at Barseback. Inputs of measurement data are on-line available on data screens for evaluation in the emergency coordination centers, presented on suitable geographical maps, showing iso-contours calculated from the input. In case of an alert situation other systems can be put in operation, f.ex. mobile measuring units from the CDEPA's local, operational emergency centers. Their readings can then be put into the computing system parallel to the on-line stations and be presented by the ARGOS-system for evaluation in the emergency command centers. If another national authority in an alert situation requests a transfer of measurement data, and if this is agreed upon by the competent Danish authority, then the transfer can be arranged from the ARGOS-system, through agreed transmission channels. At present the ARGOS system is being improved and expanded by RNL to cover the whole Danish region and to present measurements from the on-line warning system

  4. Tsunami Early Warning System in Italy and involvement of local communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano; Armigliato, Alberto; Zaniboni, Filippo

    2010-05-01

    Italy is characterized by a great coastal extension, and by a series of possible tsunamigenic sources: many active faults, onshore and offshore, also near the shoreline and in shallow water, active volcanoes (Etna, Stromboli, Campi Flegrei for example), continental margins where landslides can occur. All these threats justify the establishment of a tsunami early warning system (TEWS), especially in Southern Italy where most of the sources capable of large disastrous tsunamis are located. One of the main characteristics of such sources, that however is common to other countries in not only in the Mediterranean, is their vicinity to the coast, which means that the tsunami lead time for attacking the coastal system is expected to be within 10-15 minutes in several cases. This constraint of time imposes to conceive and adopt specific plans aiming at a quick tsunami detection and alert dissemination for the TEWS, since obviously the TEWS alert must precede and not follow the tsunami first arrival. The need to be quick introduces the specific problem of uncertainty that is though inherent to any forecast system, but it is a very big issue especially when time available is short, since crucial decisions have to be taken in presence of incomplete data and incomplete processing. This is just the big problem that has to be faced by a system like the a TEWS in Italy. Uncertainties can be reduced by increasing the capabilities of the tsunami monitoring system by densifying the traditional instrumental networks (e.g. by empowering seismic and especially coastal and offshore sea-level observation systems) in the identified tsunamigenic source areas. However, uncertainties, though are expected to have a decreasing trend as time passes after the tsunami initiation, cannot be eliminated and have to be appropriately dealt with: uncertainties lead to under- and overestimation of the tsunami size and arrival times, and to missing or to false alerts, or in other terms they degrade the

  5. Can we develop an effective early warning system for volcanic eruptions using `off the shelf' webcams and low-light cameras?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrild, M.; Webley, P. W.; Dehn, J.

    2016-12-01

    An effective early warning system to detect volcanic activity is an invaluable tool, but often very expensive. Detecting and monitoring precursory events, thermal signatures, and ongoing eruptions in near real-time is essential, but conventional methods are often logistically challenging, expensive, and difficult to maintain. Our investigation explores the use of `off the shelf' webcams and low-light cameras, operating in the visible to near-infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, to detect and monitor volcanic incandescent activity. Large databases of webcam imagery already exist at institutions around the world, but are often extremely underutilised and we aim to change this. We focus on the early detection of thermal signatures at volcanoes, using automated scripts to analyse individual images for changes in pixel brightness, allowing us to detect relative changes in thermally incandescent activity. Primarily, our work focuses on freely available streams of webcam images from around the world, which we can download and analyse in near real-time. When changes in activity are detected, an alert is sent to the users informing them of the changes in activity and a need for further investigation. Although relatively rudimentary, this technique provides constant monitoring for volcanoes in remote locations and developing nations, where it is not financially viable to deploy expensive equipment. We also purchased several of our own cameras, which were extensively tested in controlled laboratory settings with a black body source to determine their individual spectral response. Our aim is to deploy these cameras at active volcanoes knowing exactly how they will respond to varying levels of incandescence. They are ideal for field deployments as they are cheap (0-1,000), consume little power, are easily replaced, and can provide telemetered near real-time data. Data from Shiveluch volcano, Russia and our spectral response lab experiments are presented here.

  6. Relation between stability and resilience determines the performance of early warning signals under different environmental drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Lei; Korolev, Kirill S; Gore, Jeff

    2015-08-11

    Shifting patterns of temporal fluctuations have been found to signal critical transitions in a variety of systems, from ecological communities to human physiology. However, failure of these early warning signals in some systems calls for a better understanding of their limitations. In particular, little is known about the generality of early warning signals in different deteriorating environments. In this study, we characterized how multiple environmental drivers influence the dynamics of laboratory yeast populations, which was previously shown to display alternative stable states [Dai et al., Science, 2012]. We observed that both the coefficient of variation and autocorrelation increased before population collapse in two slowly deteriorating environments, one with a rising death rate and the other one with decreasing nutrient availability. We compared the performance of early warning signals across multiple environments as "indicators for loss of resilience." We find that the varying performance is determined by how a system responds to changes in a specific driver, which can be captured by a relation between stability (recovery rate) and resilience (size of the basin of attraction). Furthermore, we demonstrate that the positive correlation between stability and resilience, as the essential assumption of indicators based on critical slowing down, can break down in this system when multiple environmental drivers are changed simultaneously. Our results suggest that the stability-resilience relation needs to be better understood for the application of early warning signals in different scenarios.

  7. Precise Positioning of BDS, BDS/GPS: Implications for Tsunami Early Warning in South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kejie Chen

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global Positioning System (GPS has been proved to be a powerful tool for measuring co-seismic ground displacements with an application to seismic source inversion. Whereas most of the tsunamis are triggered by large earthquakes, GPS can contribute to the tsunami early warning system (TEWS by helping to obtain tsunami source parameters in near real-time. Toward the end of 2012, the second phase of the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS constellation was accomplished, and BDS has been providing regional positioning service since then. Numerical results indicate that precision of BDS nowadays is equivalent to that of the GPS. Compared with a single Global Satellite Navigation System (GNSS, combined BDS/GPS real-time processing can improve accuracy and especially reliability of retrieved co-seismic displacements. In the present study, we investigate the potential of BDS to serve for the early warning system of tsunamis in the South China Sea region. To facilitate early warnings of tsunamis and forecasting capabilities in this region, we propose to distribute an array of BDS-stations along the Luzon Island (Philippines. By simulating an earthquake with Mw = 8 at the Manila trench as an example, we demonstrate that such an array will be able to detect earthquake parameters in real time with a high degree of accuracy and, hence, contribute to the fast and reliable tsunami early warning system in this region.

  8. Dynamic Critical Rainfall-Based Flash Flood Early Warning and Forecasting for Medium-Small Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Yang, D.; Hu, J.

    2012-04-01

    China is extremely frequent food disasters hit countries, annual flood season flash floods triggered by rainfall, mudslides, landslides have caused heavy casualties and property losses, not only serious threaten the lives of the masses, but the majority of seriously restricting the mountain hill areas of economic and social development and the people become rich, of building a moderately prosperous society goals. In the next few years, China will focus on prevention and control area in the flash flood disasters initially built "for the surveillance, communications, forecasting, early warning and other non-engineering measure based, non-engineering measures and the combinations of engineering measures," the mitigation system. The latest progresses on global torrential flood early warning and forecasting techniques are reviewed in this paper, and then an early warning and forecasting approach is proposed on the basis of a distributed hydrological model according to dynamic critical rainfall index. This approach has been applied in Suichuanjiang River basin in Jiangxi province, which is expected to provide valuable reference for building a national flash flood early warning and forecasting system as well as control of such flooding.

  9. Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

    2016-01-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

  10. Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lestano, [No Value; Jacobs, Jan; Kuper, Gerard H.

    2003-01-01

    Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of

  11. Early warning signals of regime shifts from cross-scale connectivity of land-cover patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovanni Zurlini; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Kurt Hans Riitters; Bai-Lian Li; Irene Petrosillo

    2014-01-01

    Increasing external pressures from human activities and climate change can lead to desertification, affecting the livelihood of more than 25% of the world’s population. Thus, determining proximity to transition to desertification is particularly central for arid regions before they may convert into deserts, and recent research has focused on devising early warning...

  12. Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

  13. Beyond institutional capacity: political motivation and parliamentary behaviour in the early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gattermann, K.; Hefftler, C.

    2015-01-01

    The Early Warning System gives national parliaments the right to intervene in European Union policy-making. This article investigates their incentives to submit reasoned opinions. It analyses the reactions of 40 parliamentary chambers to 411 draft legislative acts between 1 January 2010 and 31

  14. Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

    2013-11-30

    Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Of Needles and Haystacks: Building an Accurate Statewide Dropout Early Warning System in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Jared E.

    2015-01-01

    The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

  16. Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state : Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, R.; Dearing, J.; Langdon, P.G.; Zhang, E.; Yang, X.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    There is a recognized need to anticipate tipping points, or critical transitions, in social–ecological systems1, 2. Studies of mathematical3, 4, 5 and experimental6, 7, 8, 9 systems have shown that systems may ‘wobble’ before a critical transition. Such early warning signals10 may be due to the

  17. An integrated methodology to develop a standard for landslide early warning systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fathani, Teuku Faisal; Karnawati, Dwikorita; Wilopo, Wahyu

    2016-01-01

    Landslides are one of the most widespread and commonly occurring natural hazards. In regions of high vulnerability, these complex hazards can cause significant negative social and economic impacts. Considering the worldwide susceptibility to landslides, it is necessary to establish a standard for early warning systems specific to landslide disaster risk reduction. This standard would provide guidance in conducting landslide detection, prediction, interpretation, and response...

  18. Environmental isotopes as early warning tools to control the abstraction of deep ground waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seiler, K.P.; Maloszewski, P.; Weise, S.M.; Loosli, H.H.

    1999-01-01

    Early warning system for the exploitation of ground water from the passive zone can not be based on the measurement of pollutant concentrations itself. The environmental tracer data are suggested to be used as indicators for changes in conservative mass transport processes from shallow to deep or very deep to deep ground waters

  19. Early Warning: Brought to you by the DoD Chem-Bio Defense Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Security Robots Lasers RSS Feed Early Warning: Brought to you by the DoD Chem-Bio Defense Program help warfighters prevent, protect against, respond to or recover from chem-bio threats and effects . Hassell said he and his team don't monitor the world for chem-bio threats, they develop the tools that

  20. Development of Laboratory Model Ecosystems as Early Warning Elements of Environmental Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-12-01

    AD-AOll 851 DEVELOPMENT OF LABORATORY MODEL ECOSYSTEMS AS EARLY WARNING ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf... ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION Robert L. Metcalf, Ph. D. University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Illinois INTRODUCTION Problems of environmental pollution with...house dust is unsafe to breathe (Ewing and Pearson, 1974). Most of the source of our concern about environmental pollution by trace substances relates

  1. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  2. Forests and Phenology: Designing the Early Warning System to Understand Forest Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, T.; Phillips, M. B.; Hargrove, W. W.; Dobson, G.; Hicks, J.; Hutchins, M.; Lichtenstein, K.

    2010-12-01

    Vegetative phenology is the study of plant development and changes with the seasons, such as the greening-up and browning-down of forests, and how these events are influenced by variations in climate. A National Phenology Data Set, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite images covering 2002 through 2009, is now available from work by NASA, the US Forest Service, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This new data set provides an easily interpretable product useful for detecting changes to the landscape due to long-term factors such as climate change, as well as finding areas affected by short-term forest threats such as insects or disease. The Early Warning System (EWS) is a toolset being developed by the US Forest Service and the University of North Carolina-Asheville to support distribution and use of the National Phenology Data Set. The Early Warning System will help research scientists, US Forest Service personnel, forest and natural resources managers, decision makers, and the public in the use of phenology data to better understand unexpected change within our nation’s forests. These changes could have multiple natural sources such as insects, disease, or storm damage, or may be due to human-induced events, like thinning, harvest, forest conversion to agriculture, or residential and commercial use. The primary goal of the Early Warning System is to provide a seamless integration between monitoring, detection, early warning and prediction of these forest disturbances as observed through phenological data. The system consists of PC and web-based components that are structured to support four user stages of increasing knowledge and data sophistication. Building Literacy: This stage of the Early Warning System educates potential users about the system, why the system should be used, and the fundamentals about the data the system uses. The channels for this education include a website, interactive tutorials, pamphlets, and other technology

  3. Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taha Zaghdoudi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a Bayesian approach. The results of this approach have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

  4. Exploring the utility of real-time hydrologic data for landslide early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, B. B.; Smith, J. B.; Becker, R.; Baum, R. L.; Koss, E.

    2017-12-01

    Early warning systems can provide critical information for operations managers, emergency planners, and the public to help reduce fatalities, injuries, and economic losses due to landsliding. For shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides early warning systems typically use empirical rainfall thresholds, whereas the actual triggering mechanism involves the non-linear hydrological processes of infiltration, evapotranspiration, and hillslope drainage that are more difficult to quantify. Because hydrologic monitoring has demonstrated that shallow landslides are often preceded by a rise in soil moisture and pore-water pressures, some researchers have developed early warning criteria that attempt to account for these antecedent wetness conditions through relatively simplistic storage metrics or soil-water balance modeling. Here we explore the potential for directly incorporating antecedent wetness into landslide early warning criteria using recent landslide inventories and in-situ hydrologic monitoring near Seattle, WA, and Portland, OR. We use continuous, near-real-time telemetered soil moisture and pore-water pressure data measured within a few landslide-prone hillslopes in combination with measured and forecasted rainfall totals to inform easy-to-interpret landslide initiation thresholds. Objective evaluation using somewhat limited landslide inventories suggests that our new thresholds based on subsurface hydrologic monitoring and rainfall data compare favorably to the capabilities of existing rainfall-only thresholds for the Seattle area, whereas there are no established rainfall thresholds for the Portland area. This preliminary investigation provides a proof-of-concept for the utility of developing landslide early warning criteria in two different geologic settings using real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements from in-situ instrumentation.

  5. CISN ShakeAlert: Faster Warning Information Through Multiple Threshold Event Detection in the Virtual Seismologist (VS) Early Warning Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cua, G. B.; Fischer, M.; Caprio, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Cisn Earthquake Early Warning Project Team

    2010-12-01

    The Virtual Seismologist (VS) earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm is one of 3 EEW approaches being incorporated into the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) ShakeAlert system, a prototype EEW system that could potentially be implemented in California. The VS algorithm, implemented by the Swiss Seismological Service at ETH Zurich, is a Bayesian approach to EEW, wherein the most probable source estimate at any given time is a combination of contributions from a likehihood function that evolves in response to incoming data from the on-going earthquake, and selected prior information, which can include factors such as network topology, the Gutenberg-Richter relationship or previously observed seismicity. The VS codes have been running in real-time at the Southern California Seismic Network since July 2008, and at the Northern California Seismic Network since February 2009. We discuss recent enhancements to the VS EEW algorithm that are being integrated into CISN ShakeAlert. We developed and continue to test a multiple-threshold event detection scheme, which uses different association / location approaches depending on the peak amplitudes associated with an incoming P pick. With this scheme, an event with sufficiently high initial amplitudes can be declared on the basis of a single station, maximizing warning times for damaging events for which EEW is most relevant. Smaller, non-damaging events, which will have lower initial amplitudes, will require more picks to initiate an event declaration, with the goal of reducing false alarms. This transforms the VS codes from a regional EEW approach reliant on traditional location estimation (and the requirement of at least 4 picks as implemented by the Binder Earthworm phase associator) into an on-site/regional approach capable of providing a continuously evolving stream of EEW information starting from the first P-detection. Real-time and offline analysis on Swiss and California waveform datasets indicate that the

  6. Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

    OpenAIRE

    Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic stations (airports) of North Germany (Bremen, Hamburg and Hannover) were considered for the construction of time series of daily maximum wind speeds. All daily wind extremes were found to be linked...

  7. Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

    2017-11-01

    Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

  8. Practical Application of Site-Specific Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Katsuhisa

    2014-01-01

    The development of an on-site warning system was reported. This system improves the timing of warnings and reduces the number of false alarms by improving the method of estimating the JMA seismic intensity using earthquake early warning system information based on site-specific data. Moreover, the development of an application for practical use in a construction company and an integrated system for realizing system shutdown was also reported. The concept of this system is based on the following. Seismic intensity is not distributed concentrically, and the attenuation relationship cannot explain the distribution of seismic intensity precisely. The standard method of seismic intensity prediction is construed as 'attenuation relationship + soil amplification factor', but this may be improved in the reformulation 'original attenuation relationship for each site + correction factors dependent on the epicenter location and depth' using a seismic intensity database that includes data on recent and historical earthquakes. (authors)

  9. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  10. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  11. STUDY OF WATER POLLUTION EARLY WARNING FRAMEWORK BASED ON INTERNET OF THINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Chengfang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  12. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  13. Proposed colour banded early warning observation charts for South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction of a colour banded observation chart should be combined with a clear communication strategy. The process should be used to change the organisational culture to be more proactive in initiating early intervention to reduce the burden of unintended complications. Keywords: Observation chart; Physiology; ...

  14. Early warning scores: a sign of deterioration in patients and systems

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Fox, A

    2015-02-01

    The early warning score is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated the nurses’ experiences of using the NEWS (National Early Warning Score) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors’ delayed response times, doctors lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses’ role in early detection of patient deterioration but delays in response times by doctors, exposes systematic flaws in healthcare. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.

  15. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  16. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study wa...... tool for identifying patients at risk of dying after acute stroke. Readily available physiological parameters are converted to a single score, which can guide both nurses and physicians in clinical decision making and resource allocation.......OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study...

  17. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  18. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Early and Late Elementary Age Groupings (Grades 1-6)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  19. Development of a hybrid earthquake early warning system based on single sensor technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gravirov, V.V.; Kislov, K.V.

    2012-01-01

    There are two methods to earthquake early warning system: the method based on a network of seismic stations and the single-sensor method. Both have advantages and drawbacks. The current systems rely on high density seismic networks. Attempts at implementing techniques based on the single-station principle encounter difficulties in the identification of earthquake in noise. The noise may be very diverse, from stationary to impulsive. It seems a promising line of research to develop hybrid warning systems with single-sensors being incorporated in the overall early warning network. This will permit using all advantages and will help reduce the radius of the hazardous zone where no earthquake warning can be produced. The main problems are highlighted and the solutions of these are discussed. The system is implemented to include three detection processes in parallel. The first is based on the study of the co-occurrence matrix of the signal wavelet transform. The second consists in using the method of a change point in a random process and signal detection in a moving time window. The third uses artificial neural networks. Further, applying a decision rule out the final earthquake detection is carried out and estimate its reliability. (author)

  20. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  1. Near-field tsunami early warning and emergency planning in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The new European project Near-field Tsunami Early Warning and Emergency Planning in the Mediterranean Sea (NEARTOWARN faces the need to develop operational tsunami early warning systems in near-field (local conditions where the travel time of the first tsunami wave is very short, that is less than 30 min, which is a typical case in the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea region but also elsewhere around the globe. The operational condition that should be fulfilled is that the time of tsunami detection, plus the time of warning transmitting, plus the time of evacuation should not exceed the travel time of the first tsunami wave from its source to the closest evacuation zone. To this goal the time to detect of the causative earthquake should be compressed at the very minimum. In this context the core of the proposed system is a network of seismic early warning devices, which activate and send alert in a few seconds after the generation of a near-field earthquake, when a seismic ground motion exceeding a prescribed threshold is detected. Then civil protection mobilizes to manage the earthquake crisis but also to detect and manage a possible tsunami through a geographical risk management system. For the tsunami detection the system is supported by tide-gauges of radar type, a database of presimulated tsunami scenarios, and a local tsunami decision matrix. The island of Rhodes in the eastern termination of the Hellenic Arc and Trench has been selected for a pilot and operational development of the local tsunami warning system given that the island is a highly popular tourist destination, historically it was hit by large tsunamigenic earthquakes and was recently the master test-site for the pan-European FP6 tsunami research project Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region (TRANSFER.

  2. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  3. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  4. Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

    2010-05-01

    The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for

  5. Safety early warning research for highway construction based on case-based reasoning and variable fuzzy sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Yi, Ting-Hua; Xu, Zhen-Jun

    2013-01-01

    As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR), this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods' effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  6. Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR, this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods’ effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  7. External validation of a decision tree early warning score using only laboratory data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Atkins, Tara E; Öhman, Malin C; Brabrand, Mikkel

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Early warning scores (EWS) have been developed to identify the degree of illness severity among acutely ill patients. One system, The Laboratory Decision Tree Early Warning Score (LDT-EWS) is wholly laboratory data based. Laboratory data was used in the development of a rare...... computerized method, developing a decision tree analysis. This article externally validates LDT-EWS, which is obligatory for an EWS before clinical use. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective review of prospectively collected data based on a time limited sample of all patients admitted through the medical......) and calibration (precision) as Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of fit test. RESULTS: A total of 5858 patients were admitted and 4902 included (83.7%). In-hospital mortality in our final dataset (n=4902) was 3.5%. Discriminatory power (95% CI), identifying in-hospital death was 0.809 (0.777-0.842). Calibration was good...

  8. Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

    2017-07-01

    Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Transfusion-associated circulatory overload in adult, medical emergency patients with perspectives on early warning practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gosmann, Fanny; Nørgaard, Astrid; Rasmussen, Maj-Britt

    2018-01-01

    of transfusion-associated dyspnoea. Vital signs and changes in dyspnoea and blood pressure were registered within the frame of the Early Warning Score, and one case was documented as being transfusion-related in the medical record. No cases were reported to the haemovigilance system. DISCUSSION: The incidence...... to the haemovigilance system. The clinical implications are discussed within the frame of the Early Warning Score. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective audit of electronic hospital medical records of patients receiving blood transfusion in a single medical emergency unit. Patients were admitted during a 6-month period...... and data on symptoms and vital signs were extracted from the records. RESULTS: Of 4,353 consecutively admitted patients, 156 patients were transfused with a total of 411 blood components. The audit identified five cases of transfusion-associated circulatory overload (incidence 3.2%) and four cases...

  10. Modifications of the National Early Warning Score for patients with chronic respiratory disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, N. E.; Rasmussen, L. S.; Petersen, J. A.

    2018-01-01

    System (CROS), the Chronic Respiratory Early Warning Score (CREWS) and the Salford NEWS (S-NEWS) affected NEWS total scores and NEWS performance. METHODS: In an observational study, we included patients with chronic respiratory disease. The frequency of use of CROS and the NEWS total score changes caused...... and specialist consultation' total score intervals to lower intervals. CONCLUSION: Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System was frequently used in patients with chronic respiratory disease. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS reduced sensitivity for 48-h mortality and ICU admission. Using the methodology prevalent......BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) uses physiological variables to detect deterioration in hospitalized patients. However, patients with chronic respiratory disease may have abnormal variables not requiring interventions. We studied how the Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override...

  11. A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao

    2018-01-01

    This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

  12. An Intelligent Broadcasting Algorithm for Early Warning Message Dissemination in VANETs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihn-Han Bae

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular ad hoc network (VANET has gained much attention recently to improve road safety, reduce traffic congestion, and enable efficient traffic management because of its many important applications in transportation. In this paper, an early warning intelligence broadcasting algorithm is proposed, EW-ICAST, to disseminate a safety message for VANETs. The proposed EW-ICAST uses not only the early warning system on the basis of time to collision (TTC but also the intelligent broadcasting algorithm on the basis of fuzzy logic. Thus, the EW-ICAST resolves effectively broadcast storm problem and meets time-critical requirement. The performance of EW-ICAST is evaluated through simulation and compared with that of other alert message dissemination algorithms. From the simulation results, we know that EW-ICAST is superior to Simple, P-persistence, and EDB algorithms.

  13. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  14. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  15. Recent Advances in Optical Biosensors for Environmental Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zhu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The growing number of pollutants requires the development of innovative analytical devices that are precise, sensitive, specific, rapid, and easy-to-use to meet the increasing demand for legislative actions on environmental pollution control and early warning. Optical biosensors, as a powerful alternative to conventional analytical techniques, enable the highly sensitive, real-time, and high-frequency monitoring of pollutants without extensive sample preparation. This article reviews important advances in functional biorecognition materials (e.g., enzymes, aptamers, DNAzymes, antibodies and whole cells that facilitate the increasing application of optical biosensors. This work further examines the significant improvements in optical biosensor instrumentation and their environmental applications. Innovative developments of optical biosensors for environmental pollution control and early warning are also discussed.

  16. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions aroun...

  17. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ceccato Pietro

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response. Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization. The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to

  18. Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

    2014-12-01

    Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early

  19. Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Hua-Li; Jiang, Yuan-Jun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guo-Qiang

    2018-05-01

    Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other

  20. Strengthening Laboratory Capacity for Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Kandel, Nirmal; Hapsari, Ratna Budi; Riana, Dyah Armi; Setiawaty, Vivi; Larasati, Wita; Wulandari, Endang; Purwanto, Edy

    2017-01-01

    Background: Establishment of Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) in Indonesia was initiated since 2009 in few selected provinces and government was planning to roll out in other provinces. Before initiating this roll out the assessment of performance of EWARS in 2012 was conducted. The aim of the assessment is to strengthen laboratory for supporting to EWARS for alerts testing. Methods: Laboratory capacity mapping tool and laboratory algorithm for twenty two priority diseases of ...

  1. Integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic monitoring with empirical rainfall thresholds to improve landslide early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Becker, Rachel E.; Baum, Rex L.; Smith, Joel B.

    2018-01-01

    Early warning for rainfall-induced shallow landsliding can help reduce fatalities and economic losses. Although these commonly occurring landslides are typically triggered by subsurface hydrological processes, most early warning criteria rely exclusively on empirical rainfall thresholds and other indirect proxies for subsurface wetness. We explore the utility of explicitly accounting for antecedent wetness by integrating real-time subsurface hydrologic measurements into landslide early warning criteria. Our efforts build on previous progress with rainfall thresholds, monitoring, and numerical modeling along the landslide-prone railway corridor between Everett and Seattle, Washington, USA. We propose a modification to a previously established recent versus antecedent (RA) cumulative rainfall thresholds by replacing the antecedent 15-day rainfall component with an average saturation observed over the same timeframe. We calculate this antecedent saturation with real-time telemetered measurements from five volumetric water content probes installed in the shallow subsurface within a steep vegetated hillslope. Our hybrid rainfall versus saturation (RS) threshold still relies on the same recent 3-day rainfall component as the existing RA thresholds, to facilitate ready integration with quantitative precipitation forecasts. During the 2015–2017 monitoring period, this RS hybrid approach has an increase of true positives and a decrease of false positives and false negatives relative to the previous RA rainfall-only thresholds. We also demonstrate that alternative hybrid threshold formats could be even more accurate, which suggests that further development and testing during future landslide seasons is needed. The positive results confirm that accounting for antecedent wetness conditions with direct subsurface hydrologic measurements can improve thresholds for alert systems and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landsliding.

  2. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    OpenAIRE

    Huang Huang; Jianhua Ni; Yu Zhang; Tianlu Qian; Dingtao Shen; Jiechen Wang

    2016-01-01

    Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems) system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional de...

  3. Imperfect implementation of an early warning scoring system in a Danish teaching hospital

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niegsch, Mark; Fabritius, Maria Louise; Anhøj, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    In 2007, the initiation of a patient safety campaign led to the introduction of Ward Observational Charts (WOC) and Medical Early Warning Score (MEWS) at Naestved Regional Hospital. This included systematic measuring of vital signs of all patients in order to prevent patient deterioration and ass...... and assure timely and correct initiation of treatment. The aim of this study was to assess to what degree WOC guidelines being followed by ward staff....

  4. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  5. Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Heun, Michael; Schlink, Torsten

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis model as part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systems of developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The basic idea of the signals approach is to monitor several indicators that tend ...

  6. An Accurate Gaussian Process-Based Early Warning System for Dengue Fever

    OpenAIRE

    Albinati, Julio; Meira Jr, Wagner; Pappa, Gisele Lobo

    2016-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease present in all Brazilian territory. Brazilian government, however, lacks an accurate early warning system to quickly predict future dengue outbreaks. Such system would help health authorities to plan their actions and to reduce the impact of the disease in the country. However, most attempts to model dengue fever use parametric models which enforce a specific expected behaviour and fail to capture the inherent complexity of dengue dynamics. Therefore, ...

  7. Computerised sepsis protocol management. Description of an early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Dios, Begoña; Borges, Marcio; Smith, Timothy D; Del Castillo, Alberto; Socias, Antonia; Gutiérrez, Leticia; Nicolás, Jordi; Lladó, Bartolomé; Roche, Jose A; Díaz, Maria P; Lladó, Yolanda

    2018-02-01

    New strategies need to be developed for the early recognition and rapid response for the management of sepsis. To achieve this purpose, the Multidisciplinary Sepsis Team (MST) developed the Computerised Sepsis Protocol Management (PIMIS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the convenience of using PIMIS, as well as the activity of the MST. An analysis was performed on the data collected from solicited MST consultations (direct activation of PIMIS by attending physician or telephone request) and unsolicited ones (by referral from the microbiology laboratory or an automatic referral via the hospital vital signs recording software [SIDCV]), as well as the hospital department, source of infection, treatment recommendation, and acceptance of this. Of the 1,581 first consultations, 65.1% were solicited consultations (84.1% activation of PIMIS and 15.9% by telephone). The majority of unsolicited consultations were generated by the microbiology laboratory (95.2%), and 4.8% from the SIDCV. Referral from solicited consultations were generated sooner (5.63days vs 8.47days; P<.001) and came from clinical specialties rather than from the surgical ward (73.0% vs 39.1%; P<.001). A recommendation was made for antimicrobial prescription change in 32% of first consultations. The treating physician accepted 78.1% of recommendations. The high rate of solicited consultations and acceptance of recommended prescription changes suggest that a MST is seen as a helpful resource, and that PIMIS software is perceived to be useful and convenient to use, as it is the main source of referral. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  8. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iranata, Data; Wahyuni, Endah; Murtiadi, Suryawan; Widodo, Amien; Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul

    2015-01-01

    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results

  9. Partial discharge early-warning through ultraviolet spectroscopic detection of SO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Yu; Wang, Xianpei; Dai, Dangdang; Dong, Zhengcheng; Huang, Yunguang

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance of SF 6  decomposition products is significant for detection of partial discharge (PD) in gas insulation switchgear (GIS). As a basis in on-site detection and diagnosis, PD early-warning aims to quickly find the abnormalities using a simple and cheap device. In this paper, SO 2  is chosen as a feature product and detected through ultraviolet spectroscopy. The derivative method is employed for baseline correction and spectral enhancement. The standard gases of the main decomposition products are qualitatively and quantitatively detected. Then decomposition experiments with different defects are designed to further verify the feasibility. As a stable decomposition product under PD, SO 2  is proved to be applicable for PD early-warning in the field. By selecting the appropriate wavelength range, namely 290–310 nm, ultraviolet derivative spectroscopy is sensitive enough to the trace SO 2  in the decomposed gas and the interference of other products can be avoided. Fast Fourier transform could be used for feature extraction in qualitative detection. Concentrations of SO 2  and other by-products increase with increasing discharge time and could be affected by the discharge energy and PD type. Ultraviolet detection based on SO 2  is effective for PD early-warning but the threshold should still be carefully selected in practice. (paper)

  10. Research on Disaster Early Warning and Disaster Relief Integrated Service System Based on Block Data Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, C.; Tang, D.

    2018-04-01

    With the continuous development of social economy, the interaction between mankind and nature has become increasingly evident. Disastrous global catastrophes have occurred from time to time, causing huge losses to people's lives and property. All governments recognize the importance of the establishment of disaster early warning and release mechanisms, and it is also an urgent issue to improve the comprehensive service level of emergency response and disaster relief. However, disaster early warning and emergency relief information is usually generated by different departments, and the diverse data sources, difficult integration, and limited release speed have always been difficult issues to be solved. Block data is the aggregation of various distributed (point data) and segmentation (data) big data on a specific platform and make them happen continuous polymerization effect, block data theory is a good solution to cross-sectoral, cross-platform Disaster information data sharing and integration problems. This paper attempts to discuss the integrated service mechanism of disaster information aggregation and disaster relief based on block data theory and introduces a location-based integrated service system for disaster early warning and disaster relief.

  11. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, T. M.; Livina, V. N.; Dakos, V.; Van Nes, E. H.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings. PMID:22291229

  12. Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakos, Vasilis; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Guttal, Vishwesha; Ives, Anthony R.; Kéfi, Sonia; Livina, Valerie; Seekell, David A.; van Nes, Egbert H.; Scheffer, Marten

    2012-01-01

    Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called ‘early warning signals’, and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data. PMID:22815897

  13. Sensing the danger. Can tsunami early warning systems benefit from test ban monitoring?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zerbo, L.

    2005-01-01

    An editorial in the February 2005 edition of the Magazine for European Research pointed to the very issue of responsibility: Improvements are always possible, of course, but the very nature of a 'natural disaster' is that while not entirely absolving humans of responsibility it surpasses our means to deal with and even understand the forces at work. But science can help enhance our knowledge. For if there is one subject that the Asian tragedy has highlighted, it is the importance of putting in place coordinated early warning systems for earthquakes and, in particular, the absence of effective monitoring of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean. A concerted effort is now being made to develop a coordinated system of systems - bringing together organizations and initiatives that together can put in place an early warning system. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), set-up to monitor adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, is one organization seen to contribute to a coordinated early warning system

  14. Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

    2017-09-01

    The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  15. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  16. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  17. Development of a Low Cost Earthquake Early Warning System in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2017-12-01

    The National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers (P-Alert) since 2010. As of 2017, a total of 650 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration (PGA) for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Recently, a new module named ShakeAlarm has been developed. Equipped with real-time acceleration signals and the time-dependent anisotropic attenuation relationship of the PGA, ShakingAlarm can provide an accurate PGA estimation immediately before the arrival of the observed PGA. This unique advantage produces sufficient lead time for hazard assessment and emergency response, which is unavailable for traditional shakemap, which are based on only the PGA observed in real time. The performance of ShakingAlarm was tested with six M > 5.5 inland earthquakes from 2013 to 2016. Taking the 2016 M6.4 Meinong earthquake simulation as an example, the predicted PGA converges to a stable value and produces a predicted shake map and an isocontour map of the predicted PGA within 16 seconds of earthquake occurrence. Compared with traditional regional EEW system, ShakingAlarm can effectively identify possible damage regions and provide valuable early warning information (magnitude and PGA) for risk mitigation.

  18. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  19. Establishing the fundamentals for an elephant early warning and monitoring system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Stoeger, Angela S

    2015-09-04

    The decline of habitat for elephants due to expanding human activity is a serious conservation problem. This has continuously escalated the human-elephant conflict in Africa and Asia. Elephants make extensive use of powerful infrasonic calls (rumbles) that travel distances of up to several kilometers. This makes elephants well-suited for acoustic monitoring because it enables detecting elephants even if they are out of sight. In sight, their distinct visual appearance makes them a good candidate for visual monitoring. We provide an integrated overview of our interdisciplinary project that established the scientific fundamentals for a future early warning and monitoring system for humans who regularly experience serious conflict with elephants. We first draw the big picture of an early warning and monitoring system, then review the developed solutions for automatic acoustic and visual detection, discuss specific challenges and present open future work necessary to build a robust and reliable early warning and monitoring system that is able to operate in situ. We present a method for the automated detection of elephant rumbles that is robust to the diverse noise sources present in situ. We evaluated the method on an extensive set of audio data recorded under natural field conditions. Results show that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches and accurately detects elephant rumbles. Our visual detection method shows that tracking elephants in wildlife videos (of different sizes and postures) is feasible and particularly robust at near distances. From our project results we draw a number of conclusions that are discussed and summarized. We clearly identified the most critical challenges and necessary improvements of the proposed detection methods and conclude that our findings have the potential to form the basis for a future automated early warning system for elephants. We discuss challenges that need to be solved and summarize open topics in the context of

  20. Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

    2017-12-01

    Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we

  1. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2008-01-09

    As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τ c and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV) could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τ c and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  2. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  3. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  4. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  5. United States Earthquake Early Warning System: How Theory and Analysis Can Save America Before the Big One Happens

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    Documentation for 201447 Spending more on ShakeAlert now and including sustainable operating costs can be justified. In a 2016 publication in...Seismological Research Letters, entitled “ Benefits and Costs of Earthquake Early Warning,” Strauss and Allen determine that “according to FEMA’s cost ...statistical life in the United States is USD 6.6 million.”48 As such, the benefits outweigh the costs as the earthquake early warning system alone would

  6. The TRIDEC Project: Future-Saving FOSS GIS Applications for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loewe, P.; Wächter, J.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2011-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 killed over 240,000 people in 14 countries and inundated the affected shorelines with waves reaching heights up to 30m. This natural disaster coincided with an information catastrophy, as potentially life-saving early warning information existed, yet no means were available to deliver it to the communities under imminent threat. Tsunami Early Warning Capabilities have improved in the meantime by continuing development of modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). However, recent tsunami events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key challenge for ongoing TEWS research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of reliable early warning messages. Since 2004, the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises) funded under the European Union's seventh Framework Programme (FP7). This ongoing project focuses on real-time intelligent information management in Earth management and its long-term application. All TRIDEC developments are based on Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) components and industry standards where-ever possible. Tsunami Early Warning in TRIDEC is also based on mature system architecture models to ensure long-term usability and the flexibility to adapt to future generations of Tsunami sensors. All open source software produced by the project consortium are foreseen to be published on FOSSLAB, a publicly available

  7. Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine A Spielmann

    Full Text Available Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS, may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on 'collapses,' or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems.

  8. Early Warning Signals of Social Transformation: A Case Study from the US Southwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spielmann, Katherine A; Peeples, Matthew A; Glowacki, Donna M; Dugmore, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Recent research in ecology suggests that generic indicators, referred to as early warning signals (EWS), may occur before significant transformations, both critical and non-critical, in complex systems. Up to this point, research on EWS has largely focused on simple models and controlled experiments in ecology and climate science. When humans are considered in these arenas they are invariably seen as external sources of disturbance or management. In this article we explore ways to include societal components of socio-ecological systems directly in EWS analysis. Given the growing archaeological literature on 'collapses,' or transformations, in social systems, we investigate whether any early warning signals are apparent in the archaeological records of the build-up to two contemporaneous cases of social transformation in the prehistoric US Southwest, Mesa Verde and Zuni. The social transformations in these two cases differ in scope and severity, thus allowing us to explore the contexts under which warning signals may (or may not) emerge. In both cases our results show increasing variance in settlement size before the transformation, but increasing variance in social institutions only before the critical transformation in Mesa Verde. In the Zuni case, social institutions appear to have managed the process of significant social change. We conclude that variance is of broad relevance in anticipating social change, and the capacity of social institutions to mitigate transformation is critical to consider in EWS research on socio-ecological systems.

  9. Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

    2013-10-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

  10. Developing and testing an Early Warning System for Non Indigenous Species and Ballast Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magaletti, Erika; Garaventa, Francesca; David, Matej; Castriota, Luca; Kraus, Romina; Luna, Gian Marco; Silvestri, Cecilia; Forte, Cosmo; Bastianini, Mauro; Falautano, Manuela; Maggio, Teresa; Rak, Giulietta; Gollasch, Stephan

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the methodological approach used for the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Non Indigenous Species (NIS) and ballast water management and summarizes the results obtained. The specific goals of the EWS are firstly to warn vessels to prevent loading of ballast water when critical biological conditions occur in ports and surrounding areas i.e. mass development or blooms of Harmful Aquatic Organisms and Pathogens (HAOP). Secondly, to warn environmental and health authorities when NIS or pathogens are present in ports or surrounding areas to enable an early response and an implementation of remediation measures. The EWS is designed to be used for implementing various parallel obligations, by taking into consideration different legal scopes, associated information and decision-making needs. The EWS was elaborated, tested in the Adriatic Sea and illustrated by two case studies. Although the EWS was developed with an Adriatic Sea focus, it is presented in a format so that it may be used as a model when establishing similar systems in other locations. The role of the various actors is discussed and recommendations on further developments of the EWS are presented. It was concluded that the EWS is a suitable tool to reduce the spread of potentially harmful and ballast water mediated species.

  11. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  12. Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. De Luca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides, different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights, and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as Icr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe, which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy.

  13. Earthquake Early Warning ShakeAlert System: Testing and certification platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kohler, Monica D.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Andrews, Jennifer; Meier, Men-Andrin; Ahmad, Mohammad; Henson, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Smith, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning systems provide warnings to end users of incoming moderate to strong ground shaking from earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, is providing alerts to beta end users in the western United States, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. An essential aspect of the earthquake early warning system is the development of a framework to test modifications to code to ensure functionality and assess performance. In 2016, a Testing and Certification Platform (TCP) was included in the development of the Production Prototype version of ShakeAlert. The purpose of the TCP is to evaluate the robustness of candidate code that is proposed for deployment on ShakeAlert Production Prototype servers. TCP consists of two main components: a real‐time in situ test that replicates the real‐time production system and an offline playback system to replay test suites. The real‐time tests of system performance assess code optimization and stability. The offline tests comprise a stress test of candidate code to assess if the code is production ready. The test suite includes over 120 events including local, regional, and teleseismic historic earthquakes, recentering and calibration events, and other anomalous and potentially problematic signals. Two assessments of alert performance are conducted. First, point‐source assessments are undertaken to compare magnitude, epicentral location, and origin time with the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog, as well as to evaluate alert latency. Second, we describe assessment of the quality of ground‐motion predictions at end‐user sites by comparing predicted shaking intensities to ShakeMaps for historic events and implement a threshold‐based approach that assesses how often end users initiate the appropriate action, based on their ground‐shaking threshold. TCP has been developed to be a convenient streamlined procedure for objectively testing algorithms, and it has

  14. Near real-time GPS applications for tsunami early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Falck

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available GPS (Global Positioning System technology is widely used for positioning applications. Many of them have high requirements with respect to precision, reliability or fast product delivery, but usually not all at the same time as it is the case for early warning applications. The tasks for the GPS-based components within the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 are to support the determination of sea levels (measured onshore and offshore and to detect co-seismic land mass displacements with the lowest possible latency (design goal: first reliable results after 5 min. The completed system was designed to fulfil these tasks in near real-time, rather than for scientific research requirements. The obtained data products (movements of GPS antennas are supporting the warning process in different ways. The measurements from GPS instruments on buoys allow the earliest possible detection or confirmation of tsunami waves on the ocean. Onshore GPS measurements are made collocated with tide gauges or seismological stations and give information about co-seismic land mass movements as recorded, e.g., during the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004 (Subarya et al., 2006. This information is important to separate tsunami-caused sea height movements from apparent sea height changes at tide gauge locations (sensor station movement and also as additional information about earthquakes' mechanisms, as this is an essential information to predict a tsunami (Sobolev et al., 2007.

    This article gives an end-to-end overview of the GITEWS GPS-component system, from the GPS sensors (GPS receiver with GPS antenna and auxiliary systems, either onshore or offshore to the early warning centre displays. We describe how the GPS sensors have been installed, how they are operated and the methods used to collect, transfer and process the GPS data in near real-time. This includes the sensor system design, the communication

  15. Development of Generic Tools for Coastal Early Warning and Decision Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogaard Tom

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent and historic high-impact events demonstrated coastal risk (Xynthia, Europe, 2010; Katrina, USA, 2005. This is only to get worse, because risk is increasing due to increase in both hazard intensity, frequency and increase in consequences (increased coastal development. Adaptation requires a re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR strategies and a new mix of prevention, mitigation (e.g. limiting construction in flood-prone areas and preparedness (e.g. Early warning systems, EWS measures. Within the EU funded project RISC-KIT the focus is on preparedness measures and its aim is to demonstrate robustness and applicability of coastal EWS (Early Warning Systems and DSS (Decision Support Systems. Delft-FEWS, a generic tool for Early Warning Systems has been extended, to be applied at sites all across Europe. The challenges for developing a modern EWS are found in the integration of large data sets, specialised modules to process the data, and open interfaces to allow easy integration of existing modelling capacities. In response to these challenges, Delft-FEWS provides a state of the art EWS framework, which is highly customizable to the specific requirements of an individual organisation. For ten case study sites on all EU regional seas a EWS has been developed, to provide real-time (short-term forecasts and early warnings. The EWS component is a 2D model framework of hydro-meteo and morphological models which computes hazard intensities. The total expected impact of a hazard can be obtained by using a Bayesian network DSS. This DSS, which is incorporated in the Delft-FEWS platform is a tool that links coastal multi-hazards to their socioeconomic and environmental consequences. An important innovation of the EWS/DSS lies in its application in dual mode: as a forecast and warning system and as a consistent ex-ante planning tool to evaluate the long-term vulnerability due to multiple (low-frequency coastal hazards, under various

  16. Worse, Not Better?’ Reinvigorating Early Warning For Conflict Prevention In The Post Lisbon European Union

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Franco, Chiara; Meyer, Christoph O.; Brante, John

    it right all of the time. However, we advance a number of recommendations addressed primarily to the EU, which could help to mitigate some of the problems obstructing warning for early action: • to reinvigorate its commitments to conflict prevention and ring-fence institutional resources against competing...... Representatives to avoid the bottleneck problem; • to lend more financial and intelligence support to regional and local early warning systems/NGOs, particularly those which integrate warning and response under one roof. Our paper also addresses the growing importance of the news media and nongovernmental...... in order to challenge some of the disincentives to act on the part of governments and the EU. NGOs also play an important role in holding decisionmakers to account for failing to act despite early, clear and well-substantiated warnings. In order to enhance the role of NGOs and the news media we recommend...

  17. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  18. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh

    2017-12-01

    To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  20. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Intrieri

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System: An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC, where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  1. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

    2017-10-01

    A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  2. The Development of the Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression Inventory: Preliminary findings: Toward a Better Management of Inpatient Aggression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fluttert, F.A.J.; Meijel, B.K.G. van; Leeuwen, M. van; Björkly, S.; Nijman, H.L.I.; Grypdonck, M.H.F.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: Early warning signs of aggression refers to recurring changes in behaviors, thoughts, perceptions, and feelings of the patient that are considered to be precursors of aggressive behavior. The early recognition of these signs offers possibilities for early intervention and prevention of

  3. The Development of the Forensic Early Warning Signs of Aggression lnventory: Preliminary findings: Toward a Better Management of Inpatient Aggression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stål Bjørkly; prof Berno van Meijel; Henk Nijman; Mieke Grypdonck; Frans Fluttert; Mirjam van Leeuwen

    2011-01-01

    Early warning signs of aggression” refers to recurring changes in behaviors, thoughts, perceptions, and feelings of the patient that are considered to be precursors of aggressive behavior. The early recognition of these signs offers possibilities for early intervention and prevention of aggressive

  4. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández, A; Fort, H

    2009-01-01

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  5. Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

  6. Establishment, test and evaluation of a prototype volcano surveillance system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.; Eaton, J. P.; Endo, E.; Harlow, D.; Marquez, D.; Allen, R.

    1973-01-01

    A volcano-surveillance system utilizing 23 multilevel earthquake counters and 6 biaxial borehole tiltmeters is being installed and tested on 15 volcanoes in 4 States and 4 foreign countries. The purpose of this system is to give early warning when apparently dormant volcanoes are becoming active. The data are relayed through the ERTS-Data Collection System to Menlo Park for analysis. Installation was completed in 1972 on the volcanoes St. Augustine and Iliamna in Alaska, Kilauea in Hawaii, Baker, Rainier and St. Helens in Washington, Lassen in California, and at a site near Reykjavik, Iceland. Installation continues and should be completed in April 1973 on the volcanoes Santiaguito, Fuego, Agua and Pacaya in Guatemala, Izalco in El Salvador and San Cristobal, Telica and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua.

  7. Population-based study of capsular warning syndrome and prognosis after early recurrent TIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Nicola L M; Simoni, Michela; Chandratheva, Arvind; Rothwell, Peter M

    2012-09-25

    Many guidelines recommend emergency assessment for patients with ≥2 TIAs within 7 days, perhaps in recognition of the capsular warning syndrome. However, it is unclear whether all patients with multiple TIAs are at high early risk of stroke and whether treatable underlying pathologies are more prevalent in this group. We studied clinical characteristics, Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification, and risk of stroke in 1,000 consecutive patients with incident and recurrent TIAs in a prospective, population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). Of 1,000 patients with TIAs, 170 had a further TIA within 7 days (105 within 24 hours). Multiple TIAs were not associated with carotid stenosis or atrial fibrillation, and much of the 10.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5-15.9) risk of stroke during the 7 days after the first TIA was due to patients with small-vessel disease (SVD) etiology (10 of 24 vs 8 of 146, odds ratio [OR] = 12.3, 95% CI 3.7-41.9, p TIA was similar to the risk after a single TIA in patients with non-SVD TIA (8 of 146 [5.5%] vs 76 of 830 [9.2%], OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.25-1.3, p = 0.20). Of the 9 patients with stroke after a capsular warning syndrome, all had the recurrent TIA within 24 hours after the first TIA, and the subsequent stroke occurred within 72 hours of the second TIA in 8. The ABCD2 scores of all preceding TIAs were ≥4 in all 9 patients with capsular warning syndrome before stroke. Capsular warning syndrome is rare (1.5% of TIA presentations) but has a poor prognosis (7-day stroke risk of 60%). Otherwise, recurrent TIA within 7 days is not associated with a greater stroke risk than that after a single TIA.

  8. Citizen Science to Support Community-based Flood Early Warning and Resilience Building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, J. D.; Buytaert, W.; Allen, S.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Bhusal, J.; Cieslik, K.; Clark, J.; Dewulf, A.; Dhital, M. R.; Hannah, D. M.; Liu, W.; Nayaval, J. L.; Schiller, A.; Smith, P. J.; Stoffel, M.; Supper, R.

    2017-12-01

    In Disaster Risk Management, an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments towards more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Combined with technologies for robust and low-cost sensor networks, a citizen science approach has recently emerged as a promising direction in the provision of extensive, real-time information for flood early warning systems. Here we present the framework and initial results of a major new international project, Landslide EVO, aimed at increasing local resilience against hydrologically induced disasters in western Nepal by exploiting participatory approaches to knowledge generation and risk governance. We identify three major technological developments that strongly support our approach to flood early warning and resilience building in Nepal. First, distributed sensor networks, participatory monitoring, and citizen science hold great promise in complementing official monitoring networks and remote sensing by generating site-specific information with local buy-in, especially in data-scarce regions. Secondly, the emergence of open source, cloud-based risk analysis platforms supports the construction of a modular, distributed, and potentially decentralised data processing workflow. Finally, linking data analysis platforms to social computer networks and ICT (e.g. mobile phones, tablets) allows tailored interfaces and people-centred decision- and policy-support systems to be built. Our proposition is that maximum impact is created if end-users are involved not only in data collection, but also over the entire project life-cycle, including the analysis and provision of results. In this context, citizen science complements more traditional knowledge generation practices, and also enhances multi-directional information provision, risk management, early-warning systems and local resilience building.

  9. Devising a method towards development of early warning tool for detection of malaria outbreak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Preeti; Sarkar, Soma; Singh, Poonam; Dhiman, Ramesh C

    2017-11-01

    Uncertainty often arises in differentiating seasonal variation from outbreaks of malaria. The present study was aimed to generalize the theoretical structure of sine curve for detecting an outbreak so that a tool for early warning of malaria may be developed. A 'case/mean-ratio scale' system was devised for labelling the outbreak in respect of two diverse districts of Assam and Rajasthan. A curve-based method of analysis was developed for determining outbreak and using the properties of sine curve. It could be used as an early warning tool for Plasmodium falciparum malaria outbreaks. In the present method of analysis, the critical C max (peak value of sine curve) value of seasonally adjusted curve for P. falciparum malaria outbreak was 2.3 for Karbi Anglong and 2.2 for Jaisalmer districts. On case/mean-ratio scale, the C max value of malaria curve between C max and 3.5, the outbreak could be labelled as minor while >3.5 may be labelled as major. In epidemic years, with mean of case/mean ratio of ≥1.00 and root mean square (RMS) ≥1.504 of case/mean ratio, outbreaks can be predicted 1-2 months in advance. The present study showed that in P. falciparum cases in Karbi Anglong (Assam) and Jaisalmer (Rajasthan) districts, the rise in C max value of curve was always followed by rise in average/RMS or both and hence could be used as an early warning tool. The present method provides better detection of outbreaks than the conventional method of mean plus two standard deviation (mean+2 SD). The identified tools are simple and may be adopted for preparedness of malaria outbreaks.

  10. A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the

  11. The GNSS-based component for the new Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.; Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Hoeberechts, J.; Rothacher, M.

    2009-04-01

    Introduction Nowadays GNSS technologies are used for a large variety of precise positioning applications. The accuracy can reach the mm level depending on the data analysis methods. GNSS technologies thus offer a high potential to support tsunami early warning systems, e.g., by detection of ground motions due to earthquakes and of tsunami waves on the ocean by GNSS instruments on a buoy. Although GNSS-based precise positioning is a standard method, it is not yet common to apply this technique under tight time constraints and, hence, in the absence of precise satellite orbits and clocks. The new developed GNSS-based component utilises on- and offshore measured GNSS data and is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG, Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Motivation After the Tsunami event of 26th December 2004 the German government initiated the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) to develop a tsunami early warning system for Indonesia. The GFZ Potsdam (German Research Centre for Geosciences) as the consortial leader of GITEWS also covers several work packages, most of them related to sensor systems. The geodetic branch (Department 1) of the GFZ was assigned to develop a GNSS-based component. Brief system description The system covers all aspects from sensor stations with new developed hard- and software designs, manufacturing and installation of stations, real-time data transfer issues, a new developed automatic near real-time data processing and a graphical user interface for early warning centre operators including training on the system. GNSS sensors are installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre where they are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. For

  12. End points for validating early warning scores in the context of rapid response systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, N. E.; Oestergaard, D.; Lippert, A.

    2016-01-01

    with optimal treatment. This could pose a limitation to studies using these end points. We studied current expert opinion on end points for validating tools for the identification of patients in hospital wards at risk of imminent critical illness. METHODS: The Delphi consensus methodology was used. We......INTRODUCTION: When investigating early warning scores and similar physiology-based risk stratification tools, death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission are traditionally used as end points. A large proportion of the patients identified by these end points cannot be saved, even...

  13. Serious adverse events in a hospital using early warning score - what went wrong?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, John Asger; Mackel, Rebecca; Antonsen, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the performance of a new early warning score (EWS) system by reviewing all serious adverse events in our hospital over a 6-month time period. METHOD: All incidents of unexpected death (UD), cardiac arrest (CA) and unanticipated intensive care unit admission(UICU) of adult patients...... of EWS were recorded in 87, 94 and 75% of UICU, CA and UD. Patients were monitored according to the escalation protocol in 13, 31 and 13% of UICU, CA and UD. Nurses escalated care and contacted physicians in 64% and 60% of events of UICU and the corresponding proportions for CO were 58% and 55%. On call...

  14. Early warning system realized by ENVINET a.s., domestic and abroad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sury, J.; Skala, L.; Holcak, P.; Matousek, P.

    2014-01-01

    Within recent years, research and development has expanded the portfolio of applied results in the field of early warning systems - both stationary and mobile standalone. Their implementation in different areas all over the world in different climatic conditions and their coincidence of possible communication interface software, databases, data collection and assessment of the radiation situations allow the users to respond to possible events and thus significantly affect the decision-making level for the preventive countermeasures including their utilization during radiation accidents. Some of the results will be presented during the presentation: - Implementation of monitoring stations in Varazdin, Velika Gorica, Sisak, Virovitica, Beli Manastir, Zadar, Knin and Ploce in Croatia 2014. Other locations such as Plitvice, Sibenik and Koprivnica are also considered. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 1 Sv h -1 . - Implementation of radiation monitoring stations in Warszawa, Zagan, Wroclaw, Szczecin, Krakow, Lublin, Gdynia, Bydgoszcz, Rzeszow, Bartoszyce, Srem, Swinoujscie, and Ustka in Poland 2014-2015. Radiometric monitoring station NuEM RAMS, dose rate from 10 nSv h -1 to 9 Sv h -1 . Purpose of stations - for a radiation monitoring network in a given area and for integration into the networks of early warning system. Measurement by using smart probe with 2 (3) GM tubes according to a measuring range. Power supply from photo-voltaic panel for the standalone mode. Transmission of measured data is done by using a GSM network. Data are stored into database at a web server. - Early warning system in Latvia 2013-2014. 20 pcs of stationary spectrometric AGR or IGS type or equivalent stations, NaI (Tl) or LaBr detector for on-line identification of radionuclides based on integrated isotope base with at least 10 indicated radionuclides (K-40, Mo-99, Ru-103, Rh -106, Te-129, I-131, Te-132, I-133, Cs-134, Cs-137, and Ba-140). Objective

  15. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and

  16. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  17. Early waning and evacuation from Tsunami, volcano, flood and other hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, M.

    2012-12-01

    In reconsideration of the great sacrifice among the people, evacuation calls for evacuation through Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), local governments and Medias have been drastically changed after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami in Japan. One of example is that JMA changed from forecasted concrete figure of tsunami height to one of 3 levels of tsunami height. A data shows the border between life and death is just 2 minutes of earlier evacuation in case of the 2011 tsunami. It shows how importance for communities to prompt early evacuation for survivals. However, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami revealed there is no reliable trigger to prompt early evacuation to people in case of blackout under disasters, excluding effective education. The warning call was still complicated situations in Japan in July 2012. The 2012 Northern Kyusyu downpours was at worst around 110 millimeters an hour and casualties 30 in Japan. JMA learned from the last tsunami. In this time JMA informed to local governments as a waning call "Unexpected severe rains" to local governments. However, local governments did not notice the call from JMA in the same as usual informed way. One of the local government said "We were very busy for preparing for staffs. We looked at the necessary information of the water levels of rivers and flood prevention under emergent situation" (NHK 2012). This case shows JMA's evacuation calls from upstream to midstream of local government and downstream of communities started, however upstream calls have not engaged with midstream and communities yet. Calls of early warning from upstream is still a self-centered idea for both midstream and downstream. Finally JMA could not convey a crisis mentality to local government. The head of Oarai town independently decided to use the different warning call "Order townspersons to evacuate immediately" in Ibaraki prefecture, Japan from the other municipalities in 2011 though there was not such a manuals calls in Japan. This risk communication

  18. Evaluation and optimization of seismic networks and algorithms for earthquake early warning – the case of Istanbul (Turkey)

    OpenAIRE

    Oth, Adrien; Böse, Maren; Wenzel, Friedemann; Köhler, Nina; Erdik, Mustafa

    2010-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems should provide reliable warnings as quickly as possible with a minimum number of false and missed alarms. Using the example of the megacity Istanbul and based on a set of simulated scenario earthquakes, we present a novel approach for evaluating and optimizing seismic networks for EEW, in particular in regions with a scarce number of instrumentally recorded earthquakes. We show that, while the current station locations of the existing Istanbul EEW system...

  19. A Case Study of Array-based Early Warning System for Tsunami Offshore Ventura, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Meng, L.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme scenarios of M 7.5+ earthquakes on the Red Mountain and Pitas Point faults can potentially generate significant local tsunamis in southern California. The maximum water elevation could be as large as 10 m in the nearshore region of Oxnard and Santa Barbara. Recent development in seismic array processing enables rapid tsunami prediction and early warning based on the back-projection approach (BP). The idea is to estimate the rupture size by back-tracing the seismic body waves recorded by stations at local and regional distances. A simplified source model of uniform slip is constructed and used as an input for tsunami simulations that predict the tsunami wave height and arrival time. We demonstrate the feasibility of this approach in southern California by implementing it in a simulated real-time environment and applying to a hypothetical M 7.7 Dip-slip earthquake scenario on the Pitas Point fault. Synthetic seismograms are produced using the SCEC broadband platform based on the 3D SoCal community velocity model. We use S-wave instead of P-wave to avoid S-minus-P travel times shorter than rupture duration. Two clusters of strong-motion stations near Bakersfield and Palmdale are selected to determine the back-azimuth of the strongest high-frequency radiations (0.5-1 Hz). The back-azimuths of the two clusters are then intersected to locate the source positions. The rupture area is then approximated by enclosing these BP radiators with an ellipse or a polygon. Our preliminary results show that the extent of 1294 square kilometers rupture area and magnitude of 7.6 obtained by this approach is reasonably close to the 1849 square kilometers and 7.7 of the input model. The average slip of 7.3 m is then estimated according to the scaling relation between slip and rupture area, which is close to the actual average dislocation amount, 8.3 m. Finally, a tsunami simulation is conducted to assess the wave height and arrival time. The errors of -3 to +9 s in arrival time

  20. Development of earthquake early warning system using real time signal of broadband seismogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunawan, Hendar; Puspito, Nanang T.; Ibrahim, Gunawan; Harjadi, Prih

    2012-01-01

    Earthquake pose serious threat of live and properties for urban area near subduction zone offshore and active fault on land. Jakarta and Bandung is an example of big city that no system of Earthquake early warning (EEW) event very high urbanization, and has many important infra structure in the area. The capital city is potentially high risk ground shaking. EEW can be usefull tool for reducing earthquake hazard, if spatial relation between cities and earthquake source is favorable for such warning and their citizens are properly trained to response early warning message. An EEW and rapid response system can provide the critical information needed to minimized lost of live and property and direct rescue. Earthquake ground shaking with magnitude M>6.0 from zone of Megathrust, southern of West Java should potentially damage in the area of west java especially Bandung and Jakarta City. This research development of EEW parameter such as amplitude displacement (Pd), rapid magnitude determination (M) and Peak ground Velocity (PGV). We explore the practical approach to EEW with the use of Broadband seismogram signal. Time effective EEW which epicenter from megathrust zone has potential to provide EEW in the area of west java such as Jakarta first ground shaking more or less 60 second later and strong shaking 118 second after EEW Alarm on CISI Station. EEW notification at potentially damage in the area of west java can be predicted from the characteristic of Pd > 0.5 cm, M> 6 and PGV > 10 cm/sec. GIS as a tool for presentation of hazard mapping in the affected area.

  1. Fast Moment Magnitude Determination from P-wave Trains for Bucharest Rapid Early Warning System (BREWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan

    2017-03-01

    Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.

  2. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  3. Implementation and evaluation of early gastroscopy for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in Primary Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Alonso, Francisco Javier; Hernández Tejero, María; Rubio Benito, Elvira; Valer, Paz; Guerra, Iván; García Ceballos, Victoria Gema; Noguerol, Mar; Llinares, Victoria; Bermejo, Fernando

    2017-05-01

    Dyspepsia is a common disorder in both Primary (PC) and Specialised Care (SC). Gastroscopy is recommended at the start of the study if there are warning signs, although it is not always available in PC. We developed a pilot project establishing an early gastroscopy programme for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in PC, subsequently extending it to the entire healthcare area. The aim was to evaluate the requirements, impact and opinion of this service at the PC level. Demographic, symptomatic and endoscopic variables on the patients referred to SC from the pilot centre were recorded. A satisfaction survey was conducted among the PC physicians. The one-year pilot study and the first year of implementation of the programme were evaluated. A total of 355 patients were included (median age 56.4 years; IQR 45.5-64.3); 61.2% (56.1-66.3%) were women. The waiting time for examination was 1.5 weeks (IQR 1.5-2.5). Gastroscopy was correctly indicated in 82.7% (78.4-86.3%) of patients. The median number of requests per month was 1.1 per 10,000 adults (range 0.8-1.6). Monthly referrals to SC clinics from the pilot centre fell by 11 subjects (95% CI 5.9-16) with respect to the previous median of 58 (IQR 48-64.5). Almost all those polled (98.4%) considered the programme useful in routine practice. The availability of an early gastroscopy programme in PC for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs reduced the number of referrals to SC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  4. Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Ji-Long; Wu Hao; Hou Wei; He Wen-Ping; Zhou Jie

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann–Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5–10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  5. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  6. Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

    2013-10-01

    In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

  7. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  8. Heatwave Early Warning Systems and Adaptation Advice to Reduce Human Health Consequences of Heatwaves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertil Forsberg

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: With climate change, there has been an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwave events. In response to the devastating mortality and morbidity of recent heatwave events, many countries have introduced heatwave early warning systems (HEWS. HEWS are designed to reduce the avoidable human health consequences of heatwaves through timely notification of prevention measures to vulnerable populations. Objective: To identify the key characteristics of HEWS in European countries to help inform modification of current, and development of, new systems and plans. Methods: We searched the internet to identify HEWS policy or government documents for 33 European countries and requested information from relevant organizations. We translated the HEWS documents and extracted details on the trigger indicators, thresholds for action, notification strategies, message intermediaries, communication and dissemination strategies, prevention strategies recommended and specified target audiences. Findings and Conclusions: Twelve European countries have HEWS. Although there are many similarities among the HEWS, there also are differences in key characteristics that could inform improvements in heatwave early warning plans.

  9. Research on cost early warning of textile industry based on AC algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolu Meng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the textile industry faces huge pressure domestically and internationally. With a small profit margin in the textile industry, it becomes very important to improve the economic efficiency and the cost management. Therefore, establishing an effective cost early warning system for the textile industry is necessary. The proposal of AC algorithm predicts the cost alert completely based on the historical data without estimating or assuming the future trend of the input variables in advance. Based on its advantages, the length of pattern (k is 2, 3, 4 or 5, and then we respectively build the cost early warning model. According to the results of comparison, the model with k =3 has the strongest predictive ability. The predictive error of the total cost is 1.8%, smaller than that of others. Then, this paper predicts the cost alert of the next five years by the model with k =3. The results show that the cost alert has certain volatility. Accordingly, we proposed some suggestions to cope with the crisis. This paper also provides references for the industry, government and relevant investors.

  10. The Effect of Activating Early Warning System on Motahari Hospital Preparedness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Delshad

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: One of the important aspects of hospital preparedness in disasters is its rapid early warning system. In this study, the activation of early warning system was evaluated under the monitoring of disasters workgroup of the Ministry of Health based on the national program of “hospitals preparedness in disasters” in Shahid Motahari Hospital.  Materials and Methods: The sample was composed of 801 adults exposed to the earthquake. Two months after the earthquake, all subjects were surveyed with measures administrated in a standard order as follows: demographic data sheet, disaster experiences scale (DES, general health questionnaire (GHQ, and symptom checklist 90-revised (SCL-90-R. Results: The results revealed that 23% of the survivors in the exposed group had ASD, 10% had anxiety symptoms, 7.5% depression, 4% MADD, 5% psychosomatic disorders, 10% phobia, 7% aggressive behavior, and 10% insomnia. Conclusion: This article has summarized the current status of information on mental disorders caused by experiencing or witnessing a life threatening severe earthquake. The experience of fear, helplessness, and panic during the earthquake, and the appraisal by the victims of serious psychological, social, as well as demographical consequences after the earthquake, were positively related to the subscale scores and the total score of GHQ, SCL-90-R, and DES.

  11. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  12. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

    2011-12-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

  13. Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren Di; Gao Jie

    2011-01-01

    Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + −1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  14. A web based on-line radiation early warning system for emergency preparedness and response centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhujbal, Vaibhav; Saindane, Shashank S.; Narasaiah, M.V.R.; Murali, S.

    2018-01-01

    The topography of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Trombay site, where all major components of nuclear fuel cycle activities are located is very complex in nature. The assessment of the radiological impact, if any, due to atmospheric releases from these facilities within BARC site is being carried out by using a Local Area Network (LAN) based Radiation Early Warning System and meteorological parameters. The upgraded system is aimed at providing data during normal operation of the various facilities at site and for providing early warning to decision makers in case of any onset of an emergency. It is carried out by acquiring both on-line and off-line data on releases from the plants, the environmental radiation dose rate at selected locations and other related parameters. The monitors placed at these selected locations including strategic point around the BARC site can also help in detecting any attempt of unauthorized trafficking of the radioactive sources. This paper explains different aspects of the system operating at BARC

  15. Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.

    2017-07-01

    One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

  16. Detection of Pathogenic Viruses in Sewage Provided Early Warnings of Hepatitis A Virus and Norovirus Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellmér, Maria; Paxéus, Nicklas; Magnius, Lars; Enache, Lucica; Arnholm, Birgitta; Johansson, Annette; Bergström, Tomas

    2014-01-01

    Most persons infected with enterically transmitted viruses shed large amounts of virus in feces for days or weeks, both before and after onset of symptoms. Therefore, viruses causing gastroenteritis may be detected in wastewater, even if only a few persons are infected. In this study, the presence of eight pathogenic viruses (norovirus, astrovirus, rotavirus, adenovirus, Aichi virus, parechovirus, hepatitis A virus [HAV], and hepatitis E virus) was investigated in sewage to explore whether their identification could be used as an early warning of outbreaks. Samples of the untreated sewage were collected in proportion to flow at Ryaverket, Gothenburg, Sweden. Daily samples collected during every second week between January and May 2013 were pooled and analyzed for detection of viruses by concentration through adsorption to milk proteins and PCR. The largest amount of noroviruses was detected in sewage 2 to 3 weeks before most patients were diagnosed with this infection in Gothenburg. The other viruses were detected at lower levels. HAV was detected between weeks 5 and 13, and partial sequencing of the structural VP1protein identified three different strains. Two strains were involved in an ongoing outbreak in Scandinavia and were also identified in samples from patients with acute hepatitis A in Gothenburg during spring of 2013. The third strain was unique and was not detected in any patient sample. The method used may thus be a tool to detect incipient outbreaks of these viruses and provide early warning before the causative pathogens have been recognized in health care. PMID:25172863

  17. A Topology Visualization Early Warning Distribution Algorithm for Large-Scale Network Security Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui He

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system’s emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks’ damage, and strengthen the system’s counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system’s plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks’ topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

  18. Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordes, Kristina M; Cookson, Susan T; Boyd, Andrew T; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad; Husain, Farah

    2017-11-01

    Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security.

  19. Paediatric early warning scores on a children's ward: a quality improvement initiative.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ennis, Linda

    2014-09-09

    The aim of this quality improvement initiative was to incorporate a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) and track and trigger system in the routine care of children in an acute general children\\'s ward at a regional hospital in the Republic of Ireland. In the absence of a nationally recommended specific PEWS strategy, a local plan was developed. The experience of structuring and implementing the PEWS and track and trigger system is presented in this article. Data from the first year of use were collected to evaluate the clinical utility and effectiveness of this system. In the busy acute children\\'s service, the PEWS initiative was found to benefit processes of early detection, prompt referral and timely, appropriate management of children at potential risk of clinical deterioration. Nursing staff were empowered and supported to communicate concerns immediately and to seek rapid medical review, according to an agreed PEWS escalation plan. Outcomes were significantly improved.

  20. [Health threats and health system crises. An approach to early warning and response. 2008 SESPAS Report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simón Soria, Fernando; Guillén Enríquez, Francisco Javier

    2008-04-01

    The world is changing more and faster than ever before. New diseases are coming to light each year, controlled diseases are reemerging as potential threats, and natural or man-made disasters are increasingly affecting human health. The "International Health Regulations (2005)" reflect the changes in the response of public health to this new situation. Surveillance of specific diseases and predefined control measures have been replaced by surveillance of public health events of international concern and control measures adapted to each situation. The public health events of international interest are characterized by their seriousness, predictability, the risk of international spread and potential for travel or trade restrictions. The development of the European Early Warning and Response System in 1998 and the creation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control in 2005 demonstrate political commitment in Europe, with early detection of and response to public health threats. However, timely risk evaluation and response at a national level requires improved data digitalization and accessibility, automatic notification processes, data analysis and dissemination of information, the combination of information from multiple sources and adaptation of public health services. The autonomous regions in Spain are initiating this adaptation process, but interoperability between systems and the development of guidelines for a coordinated response should be steered by the National Interregional Health Council and coordinated by the Ministry of Health. Efficient early warning systems of health threats that allow for a timely response and reduce uncertainty about information would help to minimize the risk of public health crises. The profile of public health threats is nonspecific. Early detection of threats requires access to information from multiple sources and efficient risk assessment. Key factors for improving the response to public health threats are the

  1. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  2. Perancangan Prototype Early Warning System pada Kontrol On/Off Belt Conveyor Menggunakan PLC Siemens S7-300

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Taufik

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, automation system become an important aspect of the manufacturing process because could make integration manufacturing process on it more effective and more efficient. PLC or Programmable Logic Controller is one kind of automation system. Many industries use PLC as automation control device in the manufacturing process to control all kind of process. For example at transportation process of coals in generator industry. Coals could be burned because main elements of coals are carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Base on this prototype early warning system design, we get the result if sensor thermocouple detects temperature larger than setpoint temperature (it is 2000C, then PLC will give an order to shut down the output, that is a belt conveyor. The result of this prototype design could use at coals transportation as an early warning system. The design of prototype early warning system could detect and prevent fire because of the consequence of burned coals until spreading of fire could be avoided.

  3. [Results of applying a paediatric early warning score system as a healthcare quality improvement plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero-Martín, M J; Prieto-Martínez, S; García-Solano, M; Montilla-Pérez, M; Tena-Martín, E; Ballesteros-García, M M

    2016-06-01

    The aims of this study were to introduce a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) into our daily clinical practice, as well as to evaluate its ability to detect clinical deterioration in children admitted, and to train nursing staff to communicate the information and response effectively. An analysis was performed on the implementation of PEWS in the electronic health records of children (0-15 years) in our paediatric ward from February 2014 to September 2014. The maximum score was 6. Nursing staff reviewed scores >2, and if >3 medical and nursing staff reviewed it. Monitoring indicators: % of admissions with scoring; % of complete data capture; % of scores >3; % of scores >3 reviewed by medical staff, % of changes in treatment due to the warning system, and number of patients who needed Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission, or died without an increased warning score. The data were collected from all patients (931) admitted. The scale was measured 7,917 times, with 78.8% of them with complete data capture. Very few (1.9%) showed scores >3, and 14% of them with changes in clinical management (intensifying treatment or new diagnostic tests). One patient (scored 2) required PICU admission. There were no deaths. Parents or nursing staff concern was registered in 80% of cases. PEWS are useful to provide a standardised assessment of clinical status in the inpatient setting, using a unique scale and implementing data capture. Because of the lack of severe complications requiring PICU admission and deaths, we will have to use other data to evaluate these scales. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  4. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  5. Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

  6. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  7. Early warning system of drought for risk assessment and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chub, V.E.; Agaltseva, N.A.; Myagkov, S.V.

    2004-01-01

    In Article 10 point 2 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and Drought it is pointed out that the National Action Plans 'envisage the strengthening of the national basis of the climatic, meteorological and hydrological studies and the extending the possibilities for the creation of the system of the early drought forecasting'. The Pilot Project << Early warning system of Drought,, was executed in Uzbekistan at support of Germany project on Convention to combat Desertification (GTZ-CCD). The objective of the project is the creation of the regional automated information system for the early drought warning (AISEWS). In the framework of the project it is proposed to fulfil the main following tasks: - development of concepts of preparing the databases on drought factors and keeping on the databank of drought conditions on territory of Republic Uzbekistan; - the creation of the regional informational basis of the hydro meteorological and agrometeorological information and the system of its keeping on the basis of GIS technique; - analysis of hydro meteorological situations causing the drought in the Aral sea basin; - experimental agrometeorological (in the course of the field studies) and numerical estimation of the parameters of the model of the runoff formation and soil drought; - adaptation of the models complex set of the runoff formation for hydrological objects; - development of out the technique for the long-term drought forecasting basing on the mathematical models of the runoff formation in the river basin; -development of the computer information system for the early drought forecasting with the elements of the operational information transfer to the users. For the Central Asian region the drought means, first of all, the deficit of the water resources that is why the forecasting of the water availability in rivers in the years with the water deficit is of the utmost importance. The following tasks should be fulfilled for the achieving the designed

  8. Are there clinically useful predictors and early warning signs for pending relapse?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaebel, Wolfgang; Riesbeck, Mathias

    2014-02-01

    Despite the availability of effective long-term treatment strategies in schizophrenia, relapse is still common. Relapse prevention is one of the major treatment objectives, because relapse represents burden and costs for patients, their environment, and society and seems to increase illness progression at the biological level. Valid predictors for relapse are urgently needed to enable more individualized recommendations and treatment decisions to be made. Mainly recent evidence regarding predictors and early warning signs of relapse in schizophrenia was reviewed. In addition, data from the first-episode (long-term) study (FES; Gaebel et al., 2007, 2011) performed within the German Research Network on Schizophrenia were analyzed. On the basis of FES data, premorbid adjustment, residual symptoms and some side effects are significant predictors. Although a broad spectrum of potential parameters has been investigated in several other studies, only a few and rather general valid predictors were identified consistently. Data of the FES also indicated that predictive power could be enhanced by considering interacting conjunctions, as suggested by the Vulnerability-Stress-Coping model. Prospective studies, however, are rare. In addition, prodromal symptoms as course-related characteristics likewise investigated in the FES add substantially to early recognition of relapse and may serve as early warning signs, but prognosis nevertheless remains a challenge. Comprehensive and well-designed studies are needed to identify and confirm valid predictors for relapse in schizophrenia. In this respect, broadly accepted and specifically defined criteria for relapse would greatly facilitate comparison of results across studies. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The Early Warning System and the EU’s subsidiarity principle: the Basque Parliament’s application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis de Castro Ruano

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses and evaluates the Basque Parliament’s participation in the EU’s Early Warning System (EWS for checking the application of the subsidiarity principle in the EU’s legislative process. The Early Warning System is an instrument created by the Lisbon Treaty (signed in 2007 and in force since 2009 to safeguard the subsidiarity principle. One of its most interesting innovations is that it facilitates the participation of regional parliaments in the control of the subsidiarity principle. Two years after its introduction, the Basque Parliament is one of the most active regional actors in this regard.

  10. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at

  11. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  12. Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

  13. A Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning in a School in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Brondi, P.; Miranda, N.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results of a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in the high school ITIS E. Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Naples, located about 80 km far from the seismogenic Irpinia region. The study was performed in the framework of the European REAKT project. The school was equipped with an EEWS composed of: a small seismic network of accelerometers, the PRESToPlus software platform, and an actuator, named Sentinel. The Sentinel is made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®) programmed to accomplish three main tasks: 1) listen and interpret messages delivered by the EEW system PRESToPlus on the ground motion severity expected at the target site; 2) provides different warnings as alert levels by the control of different hardware (i.e., alarm bells, emergency lights, and so on); 3) declare the end of the most threatening condition, which will assist the emergency coordinator starting the evacuation plan defined by the current legislation. The Sentinel was developed within REAKT in close collaboration with the students and the teachers of the school. The EEW system and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

  14. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adaption in National Early Warning Alerting Systems of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chao

    2017-04-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) [2]project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] http://www.12379.cn/

  15. A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

    2010-12-01

    During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

  16. A Distributed Architecture for Tsunami Early Warning and Collaborative Decision-support in Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moßgraber, J.; Middleton, S.; Hammitzsch, M.; Poslad, S.

    2012-04-01

    The presentation will describe work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on "Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises". The challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) are manifold and the success of a system depends crucially on the system's architecture. A modern warning system following a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and sub-systems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. In order to create an architecture that supports the whole spectrum of a modern, distributed and collaborative warning system one must deal with multiple challenges. Obviously, one cannot expect to tackle these challenges adequately with a monolithic system or with a single technology. Therefore, a system architecture providing the blueprints to implement the system-of-systems approach has to combine multiple technologies and architectural styles. At the bottom layer it has to reliably integrate a large set of conventional sensors, such as seismic sensors and sensor networks, buoys and tide gauges, and also innovative and unconventional sensors, such as streams of messages from social media services. At the top layer it has to support collaboration on high-level decision processes and facilitates information sharing between organizations. In between, the system has to process all data and integrate information on a semantic level in a timely manner. This complex communication follows an event-driven mechanism allowing events to be published, detected and consumed by various applications within the architecture. Therefore, at the upper layer the event-driven architecture (EDA) aspects are combined with principles of service-oriented architectures (SOA) using standards for communication and data exchange. The most prominent challenges on this layer

  17. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madlazim

    2012-01-01

    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T dur . T dur can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus (μ) while T dur may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or μ. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/μ, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T dur is proportional L and greater Mo/μ. Because Mo/μ is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 4–5 min after an earthquake

  18. Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

    2011-12-01

    Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put

  19. ERT to aid in WSN based early warning system for landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    T, H.

    2017-12-01

    Amrita University's landslide monitoring and early warning system using Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) consists of heterogeneous sensors like rain gauge, moisture sensor, piezometer, geophone, inclinometer, tilt meter etc. The information from the sensors are accurate and limited to that point. In order to monitor a large area, ERT can be used in conjunction with WSN technology. To accomplish the feasibility of ERT in landslide early warning along with WSN technology, we have conducted experiments in Amrita's landslide laboratory setup. The experiment was aimed to simulate landslide, and monitor the changes happening in the soil using moisture sensor and ERT. Simulating moisture values from resistivity measurements to a greater accuracy can help in landslide monitoring for large areas. For accomplishing the same we have adapted two mathematical approaches, 1) Regression analysis between resistivity measurements and actual moisture values from moisture sensor, and 2) Using Waxman Smith model to simulate moisture values from resistivity measurements. The simulated moisture values from Waxman Smith model is compared with the actual moisture values and the Mean Square Error (MSE) is found to be 46.33. Regression curve is drawn for the resistivity vs simulated moisture values from Waxman model, and it is compared with the regression curve of actual model, which is shown in figure-1. From figure-1, it is clear that there the regression curve from actual moisture values and the regression curve from simulated moisture values, follow the similar pattern and there is a small difference between them. Moisture values can be simulated to a greater accuracy using actual regression equation, but the limitation is that, regression curves will differ for different sites and different soils. Regression equation from actual moisture values can be used, if we have conducted experiment in the laboratory for a particular soil sample, otherwise with the knowledge of soil properties

  20. Seismic instrumentation plan for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelen, Weston A.

    2014-01-01

    The seismic network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) is the main source of authoritative data for reporting earthquakes in the State of Hawaii, including those that occur on the State’s six active volcanoes (Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, Hualālai, Mauna Kea, Haleakalā, Lō‘ihi). Of these volcanoes, Kīlauea and Mauna Loa are considered “very high threat” in a report on the rationale for a National Volcanic Early Warning System (NVEWS) (Ewert and others, 2005). This seismic instrumentation plan assesses the current state of HVO’s seismic network with respect to the State’s active volcanoes and calculates the number of stations that are needed to upgrade the current network to provide a seismic early warning capability for forecasting volcanic activity. Further, the report provides proposed priorities for upgrading the seismic network and a cost assessment for both the installation costs and maintenance costs of the improved network that are required to fully realize the potential of the early warning system.

  1. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

    2017-04-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  2. Pediatric Early Warning Score Systems, Nurses Perspective - A Focus Group Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Claus Sixtus; Nielsen, Pia Bonde; Olesen, Hanne Vebert

    2018-01-01

    PURPOSE: Pediatric early warning score (PEWS) systems are used to monitor pediatric patients' vital signs and facilitate the treatment of patients at risk of deteriorating. The aim of this study was to gain knowledge about nurses' experiences with PEWS and to highlight factors facilitating...... and impeding the use of PEWS tools in clinical practice. DESIGN AND METHODS: An exploratory qualitative design was chosen using focus group interviews to gain a deeper understanding of nurses' experiences with PEWS. A total of five focus group interviews were conducted at three hospitals, and a qualitative......'s - a challenge, v) PEWS helps to visualize the need for escalating care, vi) an inflexible and challenging tool, and vii) supportive tools enhance the nurses' experiences of PEWS positively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that attention should be given to nurses' perceptions of how both clinical judgment...

  3. Setting up an early warning system for epidemic-prone diseases in Darfur: a participative approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Augusto; Saeed, Mubarak; El Sakka, Hammam; Rashford, Adrienne; Colombo, Alessandro; Valenciano, Marta; Sabatinelli, Guido

    2005-12-01

    In April-May 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) implemented, with local authorities, United Nations (UN) agencies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), an early warning system (EWS) in Darfur, West Sudan, for internally displaced persons (IDPs). The number of consultations and deaths per week for 12 health events is recorded for two age groups (less than five years and five years and above). Thresholds are used to detect potential outbreaks. Ten weeks after the introduction of the system, NGOs were covering 54 camps, and 924,281 people (IDPs and the host population). Of these 54 camps, 41 (76%) were reporting regularly under the EWS. Between 22 May and 30 July, 179,795 consultations were reported: 18.7% for acute respiratory infections; 15% for malaria; 8.4% for bloody diarrhoea; and 1% for severe acute malnutrition. The EWS is useful for detecting outbreaks and monitoring the number of consultations required to trigger actions, but not for estimating mortality.

  4. Real-Time Detection of Rupture Development: Earthquake Early Warning Using P Waves From Growing Ruptures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodera, Yuki

    2018-01-01

    Large earthquakes with long rupture durations emit P wave energy throughout the rupture period. Incorporating late-onset P waves into earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms could contribute to robust predictions of strong ground motion. Here I describe a technique to detect in real time P waves from growing ruptures to improve the timeliness of an EEW algorithm based on seismic wavefield estimation. The proposed P wave detector, which employs a simple polarization analysis, successfully detected P waves from strong motion generation areas of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture. An analysis using 23 large (M ≥ 7) events from Japan confirmed that seismic intensity predictions based on the P wave detector significantly increased lead times without appreciably decreasing the prediction accuracy. P waves from growing ruptures, being one of the fastest carriers of information on ongoing rupture development, have the potential to improve the performance of EEW systems.

  5. Infrasound reveals transition to oscillatory discharge regime during lava fountaining: Implication for early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulivieri, Giacomo; Ripepe, Maurizio; Marchetti, Emanuele

    2013-06-01

    present the analysis of ~4 million infrasonic signals which include 39 episodes of lava fountains recorded at 5.5 km from the active vents. We show that each eruptive episode is characterized by a distinctive trend in the amplitude, waveform, and frequency content of the acoustic signals, reflecting different explosive levels. Lava fountain starts with an ~93 min long violent phase of acoustic transients at ~1.25 Hz repeating every 2-5 s. Infrasound suddenly evolves into a persistent low-frequency quasi-monochromatic pressure oscillation at ~0.4 Hz. We interpret this shift as induced by the transition from the slug (discrete Strombolian) to churn flow (sustained lava fountain) regime that is reflecting an increase in the gas discharge rate. We calculate that infrasonic transition can occur at a gas superficial velocity of ≤76 m/s and it can be used to define infrasonic-based thresholds for an efficient early warning system.

  6. INSAR For Early Warning Of Possible Highway Instability Over Undermined Area Of Ostrava

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazecky, Milan; Kacmarik, Michal; Rapant, Petr

    2012-01-01

    A part of czech highway D1 connecting Ostrava with Prague and Poland, is built over an undermined area of Ostrava-Svinov. Since the end of 2010, this part of the highway is fully operational. Because of undermining, a subsidence can be expected, however with a very slow rate since the mines are no more active in this area. Several TerraSAR-X images from 2011 are investigated interferometrically in order to estimate a precise deformation model. Subjects of interest are movements of newly built highway bridges, banks and close neighbourhood. Existing C-band multitemporal InSAR processing results of ERS and Envisat are available from an earlier period that reveil a slow trend of residual subsidence. In this project, InSAR will be investigated as a tool for an early warning for highway stability.

  7. Early warning of diarrhea and pen fouling in growing pigs using sensor-based monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, D. B.; Toft, Nils; Kristensen, A. R.

    2016-01-01

    then identify specific pens in need of extra attention. Here we evaluate the value of monitoring live weight, feed usage, humidity, drinking behavior and pen temperature in relation to early warnings of diarrhea and pen fouling in slaughter pigs. Materials and methods: We used data collected in 16 pens (8...... double-pens) between November 2013 and December 2014 at a commercial Danish farm. During this time, three new batches were inserted. We monitored the mean live weight of the pigs per pen (weekly, only in 4 pens), feed usage per double-pen (daily), humidity per section (daily), temperature at two...... positions per pen (hourly), water flow per double-pen (liters/hour/pig) and drinking frequency per pen (activations/hour/pig). Staff registrations of diarrhea and pen fouling were the events of interest. The data were divided into a learning set (15 events) and a test set (18 events). The data were modeled...

  8. A Simple Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed the development of a vast literature devoted to the study of several phenomena like banking crises or episodes of vulnerability and distress, characterized by inadequate capitalization, impairment of the asset quality and of the credit institutions' rating. The purpose of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight at an earlier stage the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. We have applied an econometric model which constitutes a reference for this type of analysis, having as purpose the identification of a significant correlation between increasing weight of bad loans in total assets, on the one hand, and a number of macroeconomic variables and indicators of the banking system, on the other hand.

  9. Detection of rain events in radiological early warning networks with spectro-dosimetric systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dąbrowski, R.; Dombrowski, H.; Kessler, P.; Röttger, A.; Neumaier, S.

    2017-10-01

    Short-term pronounced increases of the ambient dose equivalent rate, due to rainfall are a well-known phenomenon. Increases in the same order of magnitude or even below may also be caused by a nuclear or radiological event, i.e. by artificial radiation. Hence, it is important to be able to identify natural rain events in dosimetric early warning networks and to distinguish them from radiological events. Novel spectrometric systems based on scintillators may be used to differentiate between the two scenarios, because the measured gamma spectra provide significant nuclide-specific information. This paper describes three simple, automatic methods to check whether an dot H*(10) increase is caused by a rain event or by artificial radiation. These methods were applied to measurements of three spectrometric systems based on CeBr3, LaBr3 and SrI2 scintillation crystals, investigated and tested for their practicability at a free-field reference site of PTB.

  10. Linear stability theory as an early warning sign for transitions in high dimensional complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piovani, Duccio; Grujić, Jelena; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2016-01-01

    We analyse in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems by application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology and high dimensional replicator systems with a stochastic element. A high dimensional stability matrix is derived in the mean field approximation to the stochastic dynamics. This allows us to determine the stability spectrum about the observed quasi-stable configurations. From overlap of the instantaneous configuration vector of the full stochastic system with the eigenvectors of the unstable directions of the deterministic mean field approximation, we are able to construct a good early-warning indicator of the transitions occurring intermittently. (paper)

  11. Assessing Potential of VIIRS Data for Contribution to a Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.

  12. Web3DGIS-Based System for Reservoir Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Huang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Landslides are the most frequent type of natural disaster, and they bring about large-scale damage and are a threat to human lives and infrastructure; therefore, the ability to conduct real-time monitoring and early warning is important. In this study, a Web3DGIS (Web3D geographic information systems system for monitoring and forecasting landslides was developed using the Danjiangkou Reservoir area as a case study. The development of this technique involved system construction, functional design, organizing and managing multi-source spatial data, and implementing a forecasting plan and landslide-forecasting model. By integrating sensor technologies, spatial information technologies, 3D visualization technologies, and a landslide-forecasting model, the results of this study provide a tool for real-time monitoring at potential landslide sites. When relevant data from these sites reach threshold values, the model automatically initiates forecasting procedures, and sends information to disaster prevention sectors for emergency management.

  13. A search for applications of Fiber Optics in early warning systems for natural hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom

    2013-04-01

    In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.

  14. TOWARD INDONESIAN TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BY USING RAPID RUPTURE DURATIONS CALCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adlazim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia has an Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purpose of this study is to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor Sea, Banda Sea, Arafura Sea and Pacific Ocean using a direct procedure and software developed Lomax and Michelini for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential by deriving two simple measures from vertical component broadband P-wave velocity record. The first is the high-frequency apparent rupture duration, Tdur which may be related to can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L, depth (z, and shear modulus (μ. The second is a confirmation of the earlier finding by Lomax and Michelini, namely that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and Depth. We analyzed at least 510 vertical seismogram recorded by GEOFON-IA and IRIS-DMC networks. Our analysis shows that the seismic potency, LWD, which is more obviously related to capability to generate a tsunami than former. The larger Tdur the larger is the seismic potency LWD because Tdur is proportional to L/vr (with vr – rupture velocity. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant can be completed within 3 to 8 min after the P-onset.

  15. Detecting early warning signals of tree mortality in boreal North America using multiscale satellite data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Brendan M; Solvik, Kylen; Hogg, Edward H; Ju, Junchang; Masek, Jeffrey G; Michaelian, Michael; Berner, Logan T; Goetz, Scott J

    2018-02-26

    Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Evaluating the Use of Remote Sensing Data in the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Brickley, Elizabeth B.

    2011-01-01

    The US Agency for International Development (USAID) s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to food insecurity emergencies on three continents. FEWS NET uses satellite remote sensing and ground observations of rainfall and vegetation in order to provide information on drought, floods and other extreme weather events to decision makers. Previous research has presented results from a professional review questionnaire with FEWS NET expert end-users whose focus was to elicit Earth observation requirements. The review provided FEWS NET operational requirements and assessed the usefulness of additional remote sensing data. Here we analyzed 1342 food security update reports from FEWS NET. The reports consider the biophysical, socioeconomic, and contextual influences on the food security in 17 countries in Africa from 2000-2009. The objective was to evaluate the use of remote sensing information in comparison with other important factors in the evaluation of food security crises. The results show that all 17 countries use rainfall information, agricultural production statistics, food prices and food access parameters in their analysis of food security problems. The reports display large scale patterns that are strongly related to history of the FEWS NET program in each country. We found that rainfall data was used 84% of the time, remote sensing of vegetation 28% of the time, and gridded crop models 10%, reflecting the length of use of each product in the regions. More investment is needed in training personnel on remote sensing products to improve use of data products throughout the FEWS NET system.

  17. [Early warning for various internal faults of GIS based on ultraviolet spectroscopy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; Wang, Xian-pei; Hu, Hong-hong; Dai, Dang-dang; Long, Jia-chuan; Tian, Meng; Zhu, Guo-wei; Huang, Yun-guang

    2015-02-01

    As the basis of accurate diagnosis, fault early-warning of gas insulation switchgear (GIS) focuses on the time-effectiveness and the applicability. It would be significant to research the method of unified early-warning for partial discharge (PD) and overheated faults in GIS. In the present paper, SO2 is proposed as the common and typical by-product. The unified monitoring could be achieved through ultraviolet spectroscopy (UV) detection of SO2. The derivative method and Savitzky-Golay filtering are employed for baseline correction and smoothing. The wavelength range of 290-310 nm is selected for quantitative detection of SO2. Through UV method, the spectral interference of SF6 and other complex by-products, e.g., SOF2 and SOF2, can be avoided and the features of trace SO2 in GIS can be extracted. The detection system is featured by compacted structure, low maintenance and satisfactory suitability in filed surveillance. By conducting SF6 decomposition experiments, including two types of PD faults and the overheated faults between 200-400 degrees C, the feasibility of proposed UV method has been verified. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography methods can be used for subsequent fault diagnosis. The different decomposition features in two kinds of faults are confirmed and the diagnosis strategy has been briefly analyzed. The main by-products under PD are SOF2 and SO2F2. The generated SO2 is significantly less than SOF2. More carbonous by-products will be generated when PD involves epoxy. By contrast, when the material of heater is stainless steel, SF6 decomposes at about 300 "C and the main by-products in overheated faults are SO2 and SO2F2. When heated over 350 degrees C, SO2 is generated much faster. SOz content stably increases when the GIS fault lasts. The faults types could be preliminarily identified based on the generation features of SO2.

  18. The GNSS data processing component within the Indonesian tsunami early warning centre provided by GITEWS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, M.; Merx, A.; Falck, C.; Ramatschi, M.

    2010-05-01

    Introduction Within the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project a near real-time GNSS processing system has been developed, which analizes on- and offshore measured GNSS data. It is the first system of its kind that was integrated into an operational tsunami early warning system. (Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning Centre INATEWS, inaugurated at BMKG Jakarta on November, 11th 2008) Brief system description The GNSS data to be processed are received from sensors (GNSS antenna and receiver) installed on buoys, at tide gauges and as real-time reference stations (RTR stations), either stand-alone or co-located with seismic sensors. The GNSS data are transmitted to the warning centre in real-time as a stream (RTR stations) or file-based and are processed in a near real-time data processing chain. The fully automatized system uses the BERNESE GPS software as processing core. Kinematic coordinate timeseries with a resolution of 1 Hz (landbased stations) and 1/3 Hz (buoys) are estimated every five minutes. In case of a recently occured earthquake the processing interval decreases from five to two minutes. All stations are processed with the relative technique (baseline-technique) using GITEWS-stations and stations available via IGS as reference. The most suitable reference stations are choosen by querying a database where continiously monitored quality data of GNSS observations are stored. In case of an earthquake at least one reference station should be located on a different tectonic plate to ensure that relative movements can be detected. The primary source for satellite orbit information is the IGS IGU product. If this source is not available for any reason, the system switches automatically to other orbit sources like CODE products or broadcast ephemeris data. For sensors on land the kinematic coordinates are used to detect deviations from their normal, mean coordinates. The deviations or so called displacements are indicators for land mass

  19. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  20. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pclimate variables. Comparing the four multivariate models(i.e.1, 4, 9 and 13 weeks ahead), we found that including the climate variables improves the prediction RMSE as high as 3.24%, 10.39%, 17.96%, 21.81% respectively, in contrast to univariate models. Furthermore, the ability of the four multivariate models to determine whether the epidemic threshold would be exceeded in any given week during the forecasting period of 2010-2015 was

  1. Experience from three years of local capacity development for tsunami early warning in Indonesia: challenges, lessons and the way ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spahn, H.; Hoppe, M.; Vidiarina, H. D.; Usdianto, B.

    2010-07-01

    Five years after the 2004 tsunami, a lot has been achieved to make communities in Indonesia better prepared for tsunamis. This achievement is primarily linked to the development of the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (InaTEWS). However, many challenges remain. This paper describes the experience with local capacity development for tsunami early warning (TEW) in Indonesia, based on the activities of a pilot project. TEW in Indonesia is still new to disaster management institutions and the public, as is the paradigm of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The technology components of InaTEWS will soon be fully operational. The major challenge for the system is the establishment of clear institutional arrangements and capacities at national and local levels that support the development of public and institutional response capability at the local level. Due to a lack of information and national guidance, most local actors have a limited understanding of InaTEWS and DRR, and often show little political will and priority to engage in TEW. The often-limited capacity of local governments is contrasted by strong engagement of civil society organisations that opt for early warning based on natural warning signs rather than technology-based early warning. Bringing together the various actors, developing capacities in a multi-stakeholder cooperation for an effective warning system are key challenges for the end-to-end approach of InaTEWS. The development of local response capability needs to receive the same commitment as the development of the system's technology components. Public understanding of and trust in the system comes with knowledge and awareness on the part of the end users of the system and convincing performance on the part of the public service provider. Both sides need to be strengthened. This requires the integration of TEW into DRR, clear institutional arrangements, national guidance and intensive support for capacity development at local levels as well as

  2. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  3. Massachusetts Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS). "Technical Descriptions of Risk Model Development": Middle and High School Age Groupings (Grades 7-12)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2013

    2013-01-01

    The Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (Department) created the grades 1-12 Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS) in response to district interest in the Early Warning Indicator Index (EWII) that the Department previously created for rising grade 9 students. Districts shared that the EWII data were helpful, but also…

  4. Earthquake early Warning ShakeAlert system: West coast wide production prototype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Monica D.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Given, Douglas; Guiwits, Stephen; Neuhauser, Doug; Hensen, Ivan; Hartog, Renate; Bodin, Paul; Kress, Victor; Thompson, Stephen; Felizardo, Claude; Brody, Jeff; Bhadha, Rayo; Schwarz, Stan

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) is an application of seismological science that can give people, as well as mechanical and electrical systems, up to tens of seconds to take protective actions before peak earthquake shaking arrives at a location. Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working in collaboration with several partners to develop EEW for the United States. The goal is to create and operate an EEW system, called ShakeAlert, for the highest risk areas of the United States, starting with the West Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. In early 2016, the Production Prototype v.1.0 was established for California; then, in early 2017, v.1.2 was established for the West Coast, with earthquake notifications being distributed to a group of beta users in California, Oregon, and Washington. The new ShakeAlert Production Prototype was an outgrowth from an earlier demonstration EEW system that began sending test notifications to selected users in California in January 2012. ShakeAlert leverages the considerable physical, technical, and organizational earthquake monitoring infrastructure of the Advanced National Seismic System, a nationwide federation of cooperating seismic networks. When fully implemented, the ShakeAlert system may reduce damage and injury caused by large earthquakes, improve the nation’s resilience, and speed recovery.

  5. [Tourism ecological security early warning of Zhangjiajie, China based on the improved TOPSIS method and the grey GM (1,1)model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mei; Liu, Chun la; Li, Dan; Zhong, Xiao Lin

    2017-11-01

    Tourism ecological security early warning is of great significance both to the coordination of ecological environment protection and tourism industry rapid development in tourism destination, and the sustainable and healthy development of regional social and economy. Firstly, based on the DPSIR model, the tourism ecological security early warning index system of Zhangjiajie was constructed from 5 aspects, which were driving force, pressure, state, impact and response. Then, by using the improved TOPSIS method, the tourism ecological security situation of Zhangjiajie from 2001 to 2014 was analyzed. Lastly, by using the grey GM (1,1) model, the tourism ecological security evolution trend of 2015-2020 was predicted. The results indicated that, on the whole, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security showed a slightly upward trend during 2001-2014, the warning degree was the moderate warning. In terms of each subsystem, warning degree of the driving force system and the pressure system of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological secu-rity were on the rise, which evolved from light warning to heavy warning; warning degree of the state system and the impact system had not changed so much, and had been in the moderate warning; warning degree of the response system was on the decline, which changed from huge warning to no warning during 2001-2014. According to the current development trend, the close degree of Zhangjiajie's tourism ecological security would rise further in 2015-2020, and the warning degree would turn from moderate warning into light warning, but the task of coordinating the relationship between tourism development and ecological construction and environmental protection would be still arduous.

  6. Workshop "Emerging risks and early warning systems" : deelproject 1.2 : miniconferentie over roegtijdig signalering en waarschuwingssystemen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenderink, N.J.J.P.; Kreft, F.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of the workshop “Emerging risks and early warning system” held in Wageningen, the Netherlands on October the 19th 2006. The workshop is part of the project “Emerging risks in Dutch food chains”. The purpose of this project is to develop a procedure to identify potential

  7. The value of ProMED-mail for the Early Warning Committee in the Netherlands : more specific approach recommended

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeldenrust, M E; Rahamat-Langendoen, J C; Postma, M.J.; van Vliet, J A

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a retrospective and descriptive study into the added value of ProMED-mail--the global electronic reporting system for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases and toxins maintained by the International Society for Infectious Diseases--as an early warning system for The

  8. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

  9. On Track for Success: The Use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems to Build a Grad Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Mary; Bridgeland, John M.; Fox, Joanna Hornig; Balfanz, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Over the past decade, schools, districts, and states have become increasingly savvy with data collection and analysis to drive student outcomes. The development and use of Early Warning Indicator and Intervention Systems (EWS) are at the cutting edge of the data- driven, outcomes-focused, high-impact education movement. These systems can increase…

  10. Simulated NASA Satellite Data Products for the NOAA Integrated Coral Reef Observation Network/Coral Reef Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estep, Leland; Spruce, Joseph P.

    2007-01-01

    This RPC (Rapid Prototyping Capability) experiment will demonstrate the use of VIIRS (Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite) and LDCM (Landsat Data Continuity Mission) sensor data as significant input to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) ICON/ CREWS (Integrated Coral Reef Observation System/Coral Reef Early Warning System). The project affects the Coastal Management Program Element of the Applied Sciences Program.

  11. Quantitative prop support estimation and remote monitor early warning for hard roof weighting at the Muchengjian Mine in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tan, Y.; Zhao, T.; Xiao, Y. [Shandong Univ. of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong (China). Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control

    2010-09-15

    Pillar extraction is the method used to mine the ore in the Muchengjian Coal Mine in China because the coal seams are too unstable for canopy-powered or shield-powered support. This study involved a retrospective analysis of roof cave-ins to determine the tensile strength by examining the complex coal seam structure and hard roof at the mine. The objective was to ensure workers' safety when hard roof strata cave in. The roof caving span and thickness was analyzed to determine the prop spacing or number of hydraulic props needed per unit area. The study showed that the early warning threshold bedding vertical separation velocity for hard roof caving at the Muchengjian Coal Mine was about 14 mm/day. The newly developed bedding separation remote monitoring system (BSRMS) was used for the first time for early warning of a roof fall. A total of 48 trials of early warning roof weighting were performed at the Muchengjian Mine on the no. 4 face. The roof above the coal seam consists of 3 layers. The roof is supported by hydraulic props connected to an articulated roof beam manufactured in China. It was concluded that the early warnings from the BSRMS proved to be accurate. The BSRMS also indicated that the support system is safe and reliable. 12 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs.

  12. Supporting Early Warning Systems: Using Data to Keep Students on Track to Success. Data for Action 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Data Quality Campaign, 2012

    2012-01-01

    Supporting early warning systems is important because keeping students on track is vital to graduating all students college and career ready. Failing to keep students on track toward completing high school has perilous consequences for students, communities, and the economy. Predictive analyses are important to ensuring students are on track.…

  13. North Kona slump: Submarine flank failure during the early(?) tholeiitic shield stage of Hualalai Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, P.W.; Coombs, M.L.

    2006-01-01

    vesicles during flowage downslope after eruption in shallow water. The glass volatile compositions suggest that the tholeiitic lavas that drape the slump blocks were erupted either (1) early during shield-stage tholeiitic volcanism prior to emergence of a large subaerial edifice, or alternatively (2) from submarine radial vents during subaerial shield-building. Because no radial vents have been documented on land or underwater for the unbuttressed flanks of any Hawaii volcano, alternative (1) is favored. In comparison to other well-documented Hawaiian slumps and landslides, North Kona structures suggest a more incipient slump event, with smaller down-slope motions and lateral displacements.

  14. Suitability of Open-Ocean Instrumentation for Use in Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning Along Seismically Active Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, Amy L.; Newman, Andrew V.

    2018-05-01

    Over the past decade, the number of open-ocean gauges capable of parsing information about a passing tsunami has steadily increased, particularly through national cable networks and international buoyed efforts such as the Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). This information is analyzed to disseminate tsunami warnings to affected regions. However, most current warnings that incorporate tsunami are directed at mid- and far-field localities. In this study, we analyze the region surrounding four seismically active subduction zones, Cascadia, Japan, Chile, and Java, for their potential to facilitate local tsunami early warning using such systems. We assess which locations currently have instrumentation in the right locations for direct tsunami observations with enough time to provide useful warning to the nearest affected coastline—and which are poorly suited for such systems. Our primary findings are that while some regions are ill-suited for this type of early warning, such as the coastlines of Chile, other localities, like Java, Indonesia, could incorporate direct tsunami observations into their hazard forecasts with enough lead time to be effective for coastal community emergency response. We take into account the effect of tsunami propagation with regard to shallow bathymetry on the fore-arc as well as the effect of earthquake source placement. While it is impossible to account for every type of off-shore tsunamigenic event in these locales, this study aims to characterize a typical large tsunamigenic event occurring in the shallow part of the megathrust as a guide in what is feasible with early tsunami warning.

  15. Development of an advanced radioactive airborne particle monitoring system for use in early warning networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, A; Corbacho, J A; Caballero, J M; Ontalba, M A; Vasco, J; Valencia, D

    2017-09-25

    Automatic real-time warning networks are essential for the almost immediate detection of anomalous levels of radioactivity in the environment. In the case of Extremadura region (SW Spain), a radiological network (RARE) has been operational in the vicinity of the Almaraz nuclear power plant and in other areas farther away since 1992. There are ten air monitoring stations equipped with Geiger-Müller counters in order to evaluate the external ambient gamma dose rate. Four of these stations have a commercial system that provides estimates of the total artificial alpha and beta activity concentrations in aerosols, and of the 131 I activity (gaseous fraction). Despite experience having demonstrated the benefits and robustness of these commercial systems, important improvements have been made to one of these air monitoring systems. In this paper, the analytical and maintenance shortcomings of the original commercial air monitoring system are described first; the new custom-designed advanced air monitoring system is then presented. This system is based mainly on the incorporation of gamma spectrometry using two scintillation detectors, one of NaI:Tl and the other of LaBr 3 :Ce, and compact multichannel analysers. Next, a comparison made of the results provided by the two systems operating simultaneously at the same location for three months shows the advantages of the new advanced air monitoring system. As a result, the gamma spectrometry analysis allows passing from global alpha and beta activity determinations due to artificial radionuclides in aerosols, and the inaccurate measurement of the gaseous 131 I activity concentration, to the possibility of identifying a large number of radionuclides and quantifying each of their activity concentrations. Moreover, the new station's dual capacity is designed to work in early warning monitoring mode and surveillance monitoring mode. This is based on custom developed software that includes an intelligent system to issue the

  16. Seismogeodetic monitoring techniques for tsunami and earthquake early warning and rapid assessment of structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Saunders, J. K.; Goldberg, D.; Restrepo, J. I.

    2016-12-01

    As part of an effort to promote the use of NASA-sponsored Earth science information for disaster risk reduction, real-time high-rate seismogeodetic data are being incorporated into early warning and structural monitoring systems. Seismogeodesy combines seismic acceleration and GPS displacement measurements using a tightly-coupled Kalman filter to provide absolute estimates of seismic acceleration, velocity and displacement. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. Real-time seismogeodetic observations at subduction zones allow for more robust and rapid magnitude and slip estimation that increase warning time in the near-source region. A NASA-funded effort to utilize GPS and seismogeodesy in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii integrates new modules for picking, locating, and estimating magnitudes and moment tensors for earthquakes into the USGS earthworm environment at the TWCs. In a related project, NASA supports the transition of this research to seismogeodetic tools for disaster preparedness, specifically by implementing GPS and low-cost MEMS accelerometers for structural monitoring in partnership with earthquake engineers. Real-time high-rate seismogeodetic structural monitoring has been implemented on two structures. The first is a parking garage at the Autonomous University of Baja California Faculty of Medicine in Mexicali, not far from the rupture of the 2011 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake enabled through a UCMexus collaboration. The second is the 8-story Geisel Library at University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The system has also been installed for several proof-of-concept experiments at the UCSD Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High Performance Outdoor Shake Table. We present MEMS-based seismogeodetic observations from the 10 June

  17. An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cools, J.; Vanderkimpen, P.; El Afandi, G.; Abdelkhalek, A.; Fockedey, S.; El Sammany, M.; Abdallah, G.; El Bihery, M.; Bauwens, W.; Huygens, M.

    2012-02-01

    An early warning system (EWS) for flash floods has been developed for part of the Sinai peninsula of Egypt, an hyper-arid area confronted with limited availability of field data, limited understanding of the response of the wadi to rainfall, and a lack of correspondence between rainfall data and observed flash flood events. This paper shows that an EWS is not a "mission impossible" when confronted with large technical and scientific uncertainties and limited data availability. Firstly, the EWS has been developed and tested based on the best available information, this being quantitative data (field measurements, simulations and remote sensing images) complemented with qualitative "expert opinion" and local stakeholders' knowledge. Secondly, a set of essential parameters has been identified to be estimated or measured under data-poor conditions. These are: (1) an inventory of past significant rainfall and flash flood events, (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall events and (3) transmission and infiltration losses and (4) thresholds for issuing warnings. Over a period of 30 yr (1979-2010), only 20 significant rain events have been measured. Nine of these resulted in a flash flood. Five flash floods were caused by regional storms and four by local convective storms. The results for the 2010 flash flood show that 90% of the total rainfall volume was lost to infiltration and transmission losses. Finally, it is discussed that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

  18. Satellite Monitoring for Early Warning and Triggering Disaster Risk Financing in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakalembe, C. L.; Owor, M.

    2016-12-01

    Natural disasters typically occur with little warning and can have grave and long-lasting negative consequences especially for populations fully dependent on rainfed agriculture. Disaster risk financing (DRF) aims to scale up alternative livelihoods such as Labour Intensive Public Works (LIPW) when a disaster hits to minimize the likely impacts on communities. In data-rich regions triggering DRF or crop insurances payouts can be easily implemented e.g in the case of agriculture, yield losses due to drought can be measured directly. This is constrained in Uganda, because seasonal/annual production data are scarce due to the subsistence and smallholder nature of agriculture in addition to low capacity for data collection and analysis in the country. Satellite remote sensing based indices, in particular the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), provides an objective and dependable solution to this challenge. Using MODIS satellite imagery provided through the GLAM East-Africa portal (Global Agricultural Monitoring system adapted for East-Africa) for obtaining NDVI time-series in near real-time, the Office of the Prime Minister of Uganda (OPM) is designing an operational crop conditions monitoring system in support of its recently initiated DRF Project, under the Third Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF 2). The basis for triggering the DRF mechanism under this project is the deviation from the long-term NDVI (NDVI Anomaly data) within the growing season beyond a defined threshold. The NDVI data that are preprocessed in the GLAM system offer spatially explicit information on vegetation and crop conditions forming an adequate base for assessing generalized growing season conditions and enabling the quick implementation of DRF using transparent and objective criteria. The system and criteria serve also as an early-warning mechanism as the NDVI anomaly approaches the triggering threshold allowing time for planning and implementing LIPW projects.

  19. An early warning system for incursions of Bluetongue disease to the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgin, Laura; Sanders, Christopher; Carpenter, Simon; Mellor, Philip; Gloster, John

    2010-05-01

    Since 2006 northern Europe has been in the midst of an extensive epidemic of the animal disease, Bluetongue, which has cost the European economy hundreds of millions of euros due to death, sickness and movement restrictions of livestock. Bluetongue is spread by biting midges which can be carried for hundreds of kilometers on the wind. A scheme within the UK Met Office's dispersion model, the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), has been developed to reflect the effects of meteorology on the long-distance transport of these midge vectors. The scheme is based on data from field and laboratory experiments carried out at the Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright. From these experiments, certain threshold values which define when midges do not become airborne have been obtained for several meteorological variables. Within NAME, particles representing midges are removed from the model atmosphere if these thresholds are exceeded. Following outbreaks of the disease in Belgium and the Netherlands in 2006, an early-warning website was developed based on the model, to provide the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) advance knowledge of potential disease incursions by infected midges carried on the wind across the English Channel. The service has been in daily operation since April 2007 and correctly warned of the high risk of an incursion of infected midges causing the first UK outbreak in Suffolk on 4 August 2007. The website has since been expanded to predict potential incursions of disease into the Channel Islands and Northern Ireland and was used to inform on vaccination policy decisions by Defra and the Scottish government.

  20. Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blume, Steffen O P; Sansavini, Giovanni

    2017-12-01

    Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

  1. Assessment Analysis and Forecasting for Security Early Warning of Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions in Hebei Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Liang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Against the backdrop of increasingly serious global climate change and the development of the low-carbon economy, the coordination between energy consumption carbon emissions (ECCE and regional population, resources, environment, economy and society has become an important subject. In this paper, the research focuses on the security early warning of ECCE in Hebei Province, China. First, an assessment index system of the security early warning of ECCE is constructed based on the pressure-state-response (P-S-R model. Then, the variance method and linearity weighted method are used to calculate the security early warning index of ECCE. From the two dimensions of time series and spatial pattern, the security early warning conditions of ECCE are analyzed in depth. Finally, with the assessment analysis of the data from 2000 to 2014, the prediction of the security early warning of carbon emissions from 2015 to 2020 is given, using a back propagation neural network based on a kidney-inspired algorithm (KA-BPNN model. The results indicate that: (1 from 2000 to 2014, the security comprehensive index of ECCE demonstrates a fluctuating upward trend in general and the trend of the alarm level is “Severe warning”–“Moderate warning”–“Slight warning”; (2 there is a big spatial difference in the security of ECCE, with relatively high-security alarm level in the north while it is relatively low in the other areas; (3 the security index shows the trend of continuing improvement from 2015 to 2020, however the security level will remain in the state of “Semi-secure” for a long time and the corresponding alarm is still in the state of “Slight warning”, reflecting that the situation is still not optimistic.

  2. Fabrication and evaluation of polymeric early-warning fire-alarm devices. [combustion products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senturia, S. D.

    1975-01-01

    The electrical resistivities were investigated of some polymers known to be enhanced by the presence of certain gases. This was done to make a device capable of providing early warning to fire through its response with the gases produced in the early phases of combustion. Eight polymers were investigated: poly(phenyl acetylene), poly(p-aminophenyl acetylene), poly(p-nitrophenyl acetylene), poly(p-formamidophenyl acetylene), poly(ethynyl ferrocene), poly(ethynyl carborane), poly(ethynyl pyridine), and the polymer made from 1,2,3,6 tetramethyl pyridazine. A total of 40 usable thin-film sandwich devices and a total of 70 usable interdigitated-electrode lock-and-key devices were fabricated. The sandwich devices were used for measurements of contact linearity, polymer conductivity, and polymer dielectric constant. The lock-and-key devices were used to determine the response of the polymers to a spectrum of gases that included ammonia, carbon nonoxide, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, ethylene, acrolein, water vapor, and normal laboratory air. Strongest responses were to water vapor, ammonia, and acrolein, and depending on the polymer, weaker responses to carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide were observed. A quantitative theory of device operation, capable of accounting for observed device leakage current and sensitivity, was developed. A prototype detection/alarm system was designed and built for use in demonstrating sensor performance.

  3. Prototype early warning system for heart disease detection using Android Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zennifa, Fadilla; Fitrilina; Kamil, Husnil; Iramina, Keiji

    2014-01-01

    Heart Disease affects approximately 70 million people worldwide where most people do not even know the symptoms. This research examines the prototype of early warning system for heart disease by android application. It aims to facilitate users to early detect heart disease which can be used independently. To build the application in android phone, variable centered intelligence rule system (VCIRS) as decision makers and pulse sensor - Arduino as heart rate detector were applied in this study. Moreover, in Arduino, the heart rate will become an input for symptoms in Android Application. The output of this system is the conclusion statement of users diagnosed with either coronary heart disease, hypertension heart disease, rheumatic heart disease or do not get any kind of heart disease. The result of diagnosis followed by analysis of the value of usage variable rate (VUR) rule usage rate (RUR) and node usage rate (NUR) that shows the value of the rule that will increase when the symptoms frequently appear. This application was compared with the medical analysis from 35 cases of heart disease and it showed concordance between diagnosis from android application and expert diagnosis of the doctors.

  4. Early Warning System of Flood Disaster Based on Ultrasonic Sensors and Wireless Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indrasari, W.; Iswanto, B. H.; Andayani, M.

    2018-04-01

    A flood disaster provides considerable losses to the people who live around the river. To mitigate losses of material due to flood disaster required an early warning system of flood disaster. For that reason, it necessary to design a system that provide alert to the people prior the flood disaster. And this paper describes development of a device for early detection system of flood disasters. This device consists of two ultrasonic sensors as a water level detector, and a water flow sensor as a water flow velocity sensor. The wireless technology and GSM is used as an information medium. The system is designed based on water level conditions in the Katulampa Dam, Bogor. Characterization of water level detector showed that the device effectively works in a range of water level of 14-250 cm, with a maximum relative error of 4.3%. Meanwhile the wireless works properly as far as 75 m, and the SMS transmission time is 8.20 second.

  5. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  6. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) - Application in Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In conjunction with the Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element (-DE) [2] these data formats can be used for warning message dissemination in early warning systems for natural hazards. Application took place in the DEWS (Distance Early Warning System) [3] project where CAP serves as central message format containing both human readable warnings and structured data for automatic processing by message receivers. In particular the spatial reference capabilities are of paramount importance both in CAP and EDXL. Affected areas are addressable via geo codes like HASC (Hierarchical Administrative Subdivision Codes) [4] or UN/LOCODE [5] but also with arbitrary polygons that can be directly generated out of GML [6]. For each affected area standardized criticality values (urgency, severity and certainty) have to be set but also application specific key-value-pairs like estimated time of arrival or maximum inundation height can be specified. This enables - together with multilingualism, message aggregation and message conversion for different dissemination channels - the generation of user-specific tailored warning messages. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] EDXL-DE, http://docs.oasis-open.org/emergency/edxl-de/v1.0/EDXL-DE_Spec_v1.0.pdf [3] DEWS, http://www.dews-online.org [4] HASC, "Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: A Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 Through 1998" ISBN 0-7864-0729-8 [5] UN/LOCODE, http://www.unece.org/cefact/codesfortrade/codes_index.htm [6] GML, http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/gml

  7. A new Bayesian Inference-based Phase Associator for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Men-Andrin; Heaton, Thomas; Clinton, John; Wiemer, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    State of the art network-based Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can provide warnings for large magnitude 7+ earthquakes. Although regions in the direct vicinity of the epicenter will not receive warnings prior to damaging shaking, real-time event characterization is available before the destructive S-wave arrival across much of the strongly affected region. In contrast, in the case of the more frequent medium size events, such as the devastating 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake, providing timely warning to the smaller damage zone is more difficult. For such events the "blind zone" of current systems (e.g. the CISN ShakeAlert system in California) is similar in size to the area over which severe damage occurs. We propose a faster and more robust Bayesian inference-based event associator, that in contrast to the current standard associators (e.g. Earthworm Binder), is tailored to EEW and exploits information other than only phase arrival times. In particular, the associator potentially allows for reliable automated event association with as little as two observations, which, compared to the ShakeAlert system, would speed up the real-time characterizations by about ten seconds and thus reduce the blind zone area by up to 80%. We compile an extensive data set of regional and teleseismic earthquake and noise waveforms spanning a wide range of earthquake magnitudes and tectonic regimes. We pass these waveforms through a causal real-time filterbank with passband filters between 0.1 and 50Hz, and, updating every second from the event detection, extract the maximum amplitudes in each frequency band. Using this dataset, we define distributions of amplitude maxima in each passband as a function of epicentral distance and magnitude. For the real-time data, we pass incoming broadband and strong motion waveforms through the same filterbank and extract an evolving set of maximum amplitudes in each passband. We use the maximum amplitude distributions to check

  8. How to Decide? Multi-Objective Early-Warning Monitoring Networks for Water Suppliers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Felix; Loschko, Matthias; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources, which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As a matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs. In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations, to enhance the early warning time before detected contaminations reach the drinking water well, and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. Using multi-objectives optimization, we avoid the problem of having to weight these objectives to a single objective-function. These objectives are clearly competing, and it is impossible to know their mutual trade-offs beforehand - each catchment differs in many points and it is hardly possible to transfer knowledge between geological formations and risk inventories. To make our optimization results more specific to the type of risk inventory in different catchments we do risk prioritization of all known risk sources. Due to the lack of the required data, quantitative risk ranking is impossible. Instead, we use a qualitative risk ranking to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. Additionally, we allow for the existence of unknown risk sources that are totally uncertain in location and in their inherent risk. Therefore, they can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well. We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk

  9. Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

  10. Efforts Toward an Early Warning Crop Monitor for Countries at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Magadzire, T.; Galu, G.; Rodriguez, M.; Jayanthi, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing crop growing conditions is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. One of the core components of the Group on Earth Observations - Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) targets monitoring Countries at Risk (component 3). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of utilizing remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pest infestation, and climate change in some of the world's most at risk countries. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of Maryland Department of Geography have undertaken efforts to address component 3, by promoting the development of a collaborative Early Warning Crop Monitor (EWCM) that would specifically address Countries at Risk. A number of organizations utilize combinations of satellite earth observations, field campaigns, network partner inputs, and crop modeling techniques to monitor crop conditions throughout the world. Agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provide agricultural monitoring information and reporting across a broad number of areas at risk and in many cases, organizations routinely report on the same countries. The latter offers an opportunity for collaboration on crop growing conditions among agencies. The reduction of uncertainty and achievement of consensus will help strengthen confidence in decisions to commit resources for mitigation of acute food insecurity and support for resilience and development programs. In addition, the development of a collaborative global EWCM will provide each of the partner agencies with the ability to quickly gather crop condition information for areas where they may not typically work or have access to local networks. Using a framework

  11. Searching for early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colangelo, Michele; Ripullone, Francesco; Julio Camarero, Jesus; De Micco, Veronica; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Borghetti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, forest dieback episodes have been recorded worldwide affecting different tree species. In particular, several cases of widespread dieback and increased mortality rates have been described for Mediterranean oak (Quercus spp.) species. These dieback cases are revealing the high vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks, manifested as a loss in tree vigour (leaf shedding, canopy and shoot dieback), growth decline and sometimes tree death, as a consequence of temperatures rising at unprecedented rates and drying trends. However, in the wake of the so-called 'oak decline phenomenon', the attention on these species has generally been limited, perhaps because they are often regarded as well-adapted to the dry conditions typical of Mediterranean areas. Indeed, according to recent studies, the reduced size, the ability to sprout and the anisohydric behavior of Mediterranean oak species (reduced control of water loss and high stomatal conductance rates) would make them better adapted to withstand heat and drought stress then taller and non-sprouting isohydric species (e.g. conifer, with strict control of water loss by closing stomata). Here, we investigated the vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks by comparing neighboring living and recently dead trees in species with low (Q. pubescens), intermediate (Q. cerris, Q. frainetto) and high (Q. robur) sensitivity to water shortage. We analysed changes in tree vigour using tree-ring width and functional wood anatomical traits as proxies to search for early-warning signals of dieback, in connection with the main proposed dieback mechanisms (hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation). We also modeled the probability of tree death as a function of tree size (diameter, height) by quantifying recent changes in growth and wood anatomy along tree-ring series. Contrary to the general concept that trees tend to experience increasing cavitation risk with increasing height, our studies show that smaller oaks are more prone to die

  12. Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Barnett, David T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kartesz, John T.

    2010-01-01

    The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in­-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of

  13. Preliminary numerical simulations of the 27 February 2010 Chile tsunami: first results and hints in a tsunami early warning perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, S.; Tonini, R.; Armigliato, A.; Zaniboni, F.; Pagnoni, G.; Gallazzi, Sara; Bressan, Lidia

    2010-05-01

    The tsunamigenic earthquake (M 8.8) that occurred offshore central Chile on 27 February 2010 can be classified as a typical subduction-zone earthquake. The effects of the ensuing tsunami have been devastating along the Chile coasts, and especially between the cities of Valparaiso and Talcahuano, and in the Juan Fernandez islands. The tsunami propagated across the entire Pacific Ocean, hitting with variable intensity almost all the coasts facing the basin. While the far-field propagation was quite well tracked almost in real-time by the warning centres and reasonably well reproduced by the forecast models, the toll of lives and the severity of the damage caused by the tsunami in the near-field occurred with no local alert nor warning and sadly confirms that the protection of the communities placed close to the tsunami sources is still an unresolved problem in the tsunami early warning field. The purpose of this study is two-fold. On one side we perform numerical simulations of the tsunami starting from different earthquake models which we built on the basis of the preliminary seismic parameters (location, magnitude and focal mechanism) made available by the seismological agencies immediately after the event, or retrieved from more detailed and refined studies published online in the following days and weeks. The comparison with the available records of both offshore DART buoys and coastal tide-gauges is used to put some preliminary constraints on the best-fitting fault model. The numerical simulations are performed by means of the finite-difference code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna, Italy, which can solve both the linear and non-linear versions of the shallow-water equations on nested grids. The second purpose of this study is to use the conclusions drawn in the previous part in a tsunami early warning perspective. In the framework of the EU-funded project DEWS (Distant Early Warning System), we will

  14. SafeLand guidelines for landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Europe - Design and required technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, S.

    2012-04-01

    Landslide monitoring means the comparison of landslide characteristics like areal extent, speed of movement, surface topography and soil humidity from different periods in order to assess landslide activity. An ultimate "universal" methodology for this purpose does not exist; every technology has its own advantages and disadvantages. End-users should carefully consider each one to select the methodologies that represent the best compromise between pros and cons, and are best suited for their needs. Besides monitoring technology, there are many factors governing the choice of an Early Warning System (EWS). A people-centred EWS necessarily comprises five key elements: (1) knowledge of the risks; (2) identification, monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; (3) operational centre; (4) communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and (5) local capabilities to respond to the warnings received. The expression "end-to-end warning system" is also used to emphasize that EWSs need to span all steps from hazard detection through to community response. The aim of the present work is to provide guidelines for establishing the different components for landslide EWSs. One of the main deliverables of the EC-FP7 SafeLand project addresses the technical and practical issues related to monitoring and early warning for landslides, and identifies the best technologies available in the context of both hazard assessment and design of EWSs. This deliverable targets the end-users and aims to facilitate the decision process by providing guidelines. For the purpose of sharing the globally accumulated expertise, a screening study was done on 14 EWSs from 8 different countries. On these bases, the report presents a synoptic view of existing monitoring methodologies and early-warning strategies and their applicability for different landslide types, scales and risk management steps. Several comprehensive checklists and toolboxes are also included to support informed

  15. Rainfall height stochastic modelling as a support tool for landslides early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.; Versace, P.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of landslides is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Although heavy landslides frequently occurred in Campania, southern Italy, during the last decade, no complete data sets are available for natural slopes where landslides occurred. As a consequence, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems in Campania still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between daily rainfall records and observed landslides, like FLAIR model [Versace et al., 2003]. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction. In mountainous areas, rainfall spatial and temporal variability are very pronounced due to orographic effects, making predictions even more complicated. Existing rain gauge networks are not dense enough to resolve the small scale spatial variability, and the same limitation of spatial resolution affects rainfall height maps provided by radar sensors as well as by meteorological physically based models. Therefore, analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series still represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR and ARMA [Box and Jenkins, 1976]. Sometimes exogenous information coming from additional series of observations is also taken into account, and the models are called ARX and ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time

  16. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  17. Evaluation of the novel respiratory virus surveillance program: Pediatric Early Warning Sentinel Surveillance (PEWSS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Patricia A; Nguyen, Linh M; Lutman, Michelle L; Middaugh, John P

    2013-01-01

    Infections caused by respiratory viruses are associated with recurrent epidemics and widespread morbidity and mortality. Routine surveillance of these pathogens is necessary to determine virus activity, monitor for changes in circulating strains, and plan for public health preparedness. The Southern Nevada Health District in Las Vegas, Nevada, recruited five pediatric medical practices to serve as sentinel sites for the Pediatric Early Warning Sentinel Surveillance (PEWSS) program. Sentinel staff collected specimens throughout the year from ill children who met the influenza-like illness case definition and submitted specimens to the Southern Nevada Public Health Laboratory for molecular testing for influenza and six non-influenza viruses. Laboratory results were analyzed and reported to the medical and general communities in weekly bulletins year-round. PEWSS data were also used to establish viral respiratory seasonal baselines and in influenza vaccination campaigns. The surveillance program was evaluated using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Updated Guidelines for Evaluating Public Health Surveillance Systems. PEWSS met three of six program usefulness criteria and seven of nine surveillance system attributes, which exceeded the CDC Guidelines evaluation criteria for a useful and complete public health surveillance program. We found that PEWSS is a useful and complete public health surveillance system that is simple, flexible, accessible, and stable.

  18. Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

    2015-12-01

    Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

  19. A Study about the 3S-based Great Ruins Monitoring and Early-warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuefeng, W.; Zhongyuan, H.; Gongli, L.; Li, Z.

    2015-08-01

    Large-scale urbanization construction and new countryside construction, frequent natural disasters, and natural corrosion pose severe threat to the great ruins. It is not uncommon that the cultural relics are damaged and great ruins are occupied. Now the ruins monitoring mainly adopt general monitoring data processing system which can not effectively exert management, display, excavation analysis and data sharing of the relics monitoring data. Meanwhile those general software systems require layout of large number of devices or apparatuses, but they are applied to small-scope relics monitoring only. Therefore, this paper proposes a method to make use of the stereoscopic cartographic satellite technology to improve and supplement the great ruins monitoring index system and combine GIS and GPS to establish a highly automatic, real-time and intelligent great ruins monitoring and early-warning system in order to realize collection, processing, updating, spatial visualization, analysis, distribution and sharing of the monitoring data, and provide scientific and effective data for the relics protection, scientific planning, reasonable development and sustainable utilization.

  20. A new M w estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zijun; Zhao, Boming

    2018-01-01

    We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral ( ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.

  1. Risk assessment and early warning systems for industrial facilities in seismic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salzano, Ernesto; Garcia Agreda, Anita; Di Carluccio, Antonio; Fabbrocino, Giovanni

    2009-01-01

    Industrial equipments and systems can suffer structural damage when hit by earthquakes, so that accidental scenarios as fire, explosion and dispersion of toxic substances can take place. As a result, overall damage to people, environment and properties increases. The present paper deals with seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where atmospheric storage tanks (anchored or unanchored to ground), horizontal pressurised tanks, reactors and pumps are installed. Simplified procedures and methodologies based on historical database and literature data on natural-technological (Na-Tech) accidents for seismic risk assessment are discussed. Equipment-specific fragility curves have been thus derived depending on a single earthquake measure, peak ground acceleration (PGA). Fragility parameters have been then transformed to linear probit coefficients in order to obtain reliable threshold values for earthquake intensity measure, both for structural damage and loss of containment. These threshold values are of great interest when development of active and passive mitigation actions and systems, safety management, and the implementation of early warning system are concerned. The approach is general and can be implemented in any available code or procedure for risk assessment. Some results of seismic analysis of atmospheric storage tanks are also presented for validation.

  2. Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

    2017-12-01

    In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

  3. Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Huang, Yandan

    2017-12-01

    Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region's peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

  4. Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

    2017-01-01

    The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

  5. Excessive Heat Events and National Security: Building Resilience based on Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vintzileos, A.

    2017-12-01

    Excessive heat events (EHE) affect security of Nations in multiple direct and indirect ways. EHE are the top cause for morbidity/mortality associated to any atmospheric extremes. Higher energy consumption used for cooling can lead to black-outs and social disorder. EHE affect the food supply chain reducing crop yield and increasing the probability of food contamination during delivery and storage. Distribution of goods during EHE can be severely disrupted due to mechanical failure of transportation equipment. EHE during athletic events e.g., marathons, may result to a high number of casualties. Finally, EHE may also affect military planning by e.g. reducing hours of exercise and by altering combat gear. Early warning systems for EHE allow for building resilience. In this paper we first define EHE as at least two consecutive heat days; a heat day is defined as a day with a maximum heat index with probability of occurrence that exceeds a certain threshold. We then use retrospective forecasts performed with a multitude of operational models and show that it is feasible to forecast EHE at forecast lead of week-2 and week-3 over the contiguous United States. We finally introduce an improved definition of EHE based on an intensity index and investigate forecast skill of the predictive system in the tropics and subtropics.

  6. ABNORMAL MICROFAUNAL SHELLS AS EARLY WARNING INDICATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SURROUNDING BERAU DELTA, EAST KALIMANTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kresna Tri Dewi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A total of 25 sediment samples from surrounding Berau Delta, East Kalimantan have been used for microfaunal study. It is found some abnormal shells of ostracoda, foraminifera and other forms with darkish shells (black, dark green and dark brown. These forms were analyzed using SEM-Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX or EDS to know their chemical composition. The result shows that these abnormal forms composed of CaO, SiO2, C, FeO, Al2O3, K2O, and small amount of Na2O and Cl. They may derive from different sources: CaO and MgO from neutralized component during the environmental management to handle the Acid Mine Drainage (AMD. The other components may derive from coal ash during combustion process or other activities. From this result, the small amount (less than 5% of abnormal shells may be used as early warning indicator of environmental changes in the study area.

  7. Monitoring slope movement using time domain reflectometry (TDR) technology and early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wan Zakaria Wan Muhamad Tahir, Lakam Mejus; Johari Abd Latif

    2006-01-01

    Many options of electronic instrumentation are available for monitoring unstable and/or potentially unstable slopes. One of the tools is applying TDR technology which is now regarded as a cost effective and alternative means for locating the depth to a shear plane or zone in a landslide. TDR uses an electronic voltage pulse that is reflected like radar from a damaged or deformed location in a coaxial cable. To monitor slope movement, coaxial cables are grouted in boreholes and interrogated using a TDR cable tester, which is attached to a programmed data logger. Characteristic cable signatures can be stored and compared over time for any changes indicating slope movement. This paper describes a case study documenting TDR installation procedure, data acquisition system and on-site TDR data collection of an unstable hill slope in Kampong Bharu -Bukit Tinggi, Bentong. A possibility of using a remotely automated monitoring system (advanced telemetry and data logger) that can incorporate with other types of sensors (e.g. rain gauge, vibrating wire piezometer, in-place inclinometer) together with many TDR sensor cables as an integrated package for early-warning of potential unstable slope movement around the area was highlighted and proposed. (Author)

  8. An 'Early Warning System' for the prevention of dredging potential impacts on sensitive areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piermattei, Viviana; Martellucci, Riccardo; Pierattini, Alberto; Bonamano, Simone; Paladini de Mendoza, Francesco; Albani, Marta; Stefanì, Chiara; Madonia, Alice; Fersini, Giorgio; Marcelli, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly subject to multiple pressures and stressors produced by the effects of human activities. Intense and frequent disturbances which affect marine environment can derive from dredging activity, which is a fundamental management for most ports and harbours. The potential environmental effects of dredging procedures are generally due to the excavation of material from the sea bottom and the relocation elsewhere for disposal, overflow from the dredger and loss of material from pipelines during transport. Depending on the location and the intensity of these activities the marine environment, particularly sensitive areas, may be affected by dredging. The main environmental effects can be associated with suspended sediments and increases in turbidity into the water column, which can have adverse effects on marine animals and plants by reducing light penetration and by physical disturbance. For this reason it is fundamental to implement a real time monitoring system to control and prevent negative effects, enabling a rapid response to adverse water quality conditions and a fast activation of mitigation procedures, in agreement with all the reference authorities. In this work we present the development of an innovative 'Early Warning System' based on fixed stations, ad hoc in situ surveys and forecasting models, which was applied to a dredging activity carried out in the Gulf of Gaeta (Latium, Italy). It represents an extension of the C-CEMS (Civitavecchia Coastal Environmental Monitoring System) network, which is operative in the Tyrrhenian sea since 2005.

  9. TELERAD: the radiological surveillance network and early warning system in Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonck, Michel; Desmedt, Michel; Claes, Jurgen; Sombre, Lionel; Vandecasteele, Christian

    2008-01-01

    The TELERAD network is primarily a measurement and early warning network. Its 212 stations constantly measure the overall radioactivity of the air, atmospheric dusts and river waters (Meuse, Sambre and Molse Nete) on the Belgian territory. These stations are linked to a centralised system that is automatically alerted in case an abnormal rise in radioactivity level is detected. The TELERAD network is supplemented by meteorological masts (10 meters and 30 meters height), which measure wind speed and direction, and by a set of mobile stations that can be deployed at any location on the territory. In the event of a nuclear accident, the discharge of radioactive substances into the atmosphere could lead to the launch of the nuclear emergency plan foreseen by the authorities. The TELERAD network would then play a crucial role in assessing the gravity of the accident, supporting decision making, optimising interventions and measures to be implemented to avert the effects of the accident and, subsequently, to remedy them, as well as informing the population on an ongoing basis. In normal circumstances, the TELERAD network measures the ambient dose rate due to external gamma radiation. This dose rate is essentially linked to the level of natural radioactivity. (author)

  10. POWER SUPPLY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM DESIGN ON NODE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR PEATLANDS FIRE MITIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufiq Muammar

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Early warning system is one of the technology to detect land fires by utilizing a network of wireless sensors. Constant data transmission by the sensor nodes consumes a large amount of energy on the nodes’ sides that could affect the battery’s longevity. This research is done to discover the amount of power consumption and battery longevity during fire emergencies, and during non-emergency situation on peatlands. Power saving on the fire detecting system uses an LM35 temperature sensor, ATmega8 micro-controller and HC-12 transmission module. The overall result of powered by a 9 volt battery during fire emergencies, and during non-emergency, the power consumption reaches up to 1 Wh, with various longevity levels of the battery. The implementation of sleep/wake up mode scheduling during fire emergencies and non-emergencies could save battery for 2 hours compared to those without the power saving mode implementation. Power saving during fire emergency could be minimalized by activating the sleep mode activation power-down on the micro controller and it can also set the data transmission schedule to minimalize data usage during fire emergency, so that the usage of sleep/wake up mode interval scheduling during transmission could minimalize energy consumption and elongate the power supply active period.

  11. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  12. Development of ANN Model for Wind Speed Prediction as a Support for Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Marović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural disasters increases every year with more casualties and damage to property and the environment. Therefore, it is important to prevent consequences by implementation of the early warning system (EWS in order to announce the possibility of the harmful phenomena occurrence. In this paper, focus is placed on the implementation of the EWS on the micro location in order to announce possible harmful phenomena occurrence caused by wind. In order to predict such phenomena (wind speed, an artificial neural network (ANN prediction model is developed. The model is developed on the basis of the input data obtained by local meteorological station on the University of Rijeka campus area in the Republic of Croatia. The prediction model is validated and evaluated by visual and common calculation approaches, after which it was found that it is possible to perform very good wind speed prediction for time steps Δt=1 h, Δt=3 h, and Δt=8 h. The developed model is implemented in the EWS as a decision support for improvement of the existing “procedure plan in a case of the emergency caused by stormy wind or hurricane, snow and occurrence of the ice on the University of Rijeka campus.”

  13. Perspectives on using remotely-sensed imagery in predictive veterinary epidemiology and global early warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Vincent; De Simone, Lorenzo; Lubroth, Juan; Ceccato, Pietro; Chevalier, Véronique

    2007-11-01

    Recent disease epidemics and their spread around the world have illustrated the weaknesses of disease surveillance and early warning systems (EWS), both at national and international levels. These diseases continuously threaten the livestock sector on a worldwide basis, some with major public health impact. EWS and accurate forecasting of new outbreaks of epidemic livestock diseases that may also affect wildlife, and the capacity for spread of such diseases to new areas is an essential pre-requisite to their effective containment and control. Because both the geographical and seasonal distribution of many infectious diseases are linked to climate, the possibility of using climaterelated environmental factors as predictive indicators, in association with regular disease surveillance activities, has proven to be relevant when establishing EWS for climate-related diseases. This article reviews the growing importance of using geographical information systems in predictive veterinary epidemiology and its integration into EWS, with a special focus on Rift Valley fever. It shows that, once fully validated in a country or region, this technology appears highly valuable and could play an increasing role in forecasting major epidemics, providing lead time to national veterinary services to take action to mitigate the impact of the disease in a cost-effective manner.

  14. Fall risk assessment and early-warning for toddler behaviors at home.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Mau-Tsuen; Chuang, Min-Wen

    2013-12-10

    Accidental falls are the major cause of serious injuries in toddlers, with most of these falls happening at home. Instead of providing immediate fall detection based on short-term observations, this paper proposes an early-warning childcare system to monitor fall-prone behaviors of toddlers at home. Using 3D human skeleton tracking and floor plane detection based on depth images captured by a Kinect system, eight fall-prone behavioral modules of toddlers are developed and organized according to four essential criteria: posture, motion, balance, and altitude. The final fall risk assessment is generated by a multi-modal fusion using either a weighted mean thresholding or a support vector machine (SVM) classification. Optimizations are performed to determine local parameter in each module and global parameters of the multi-modal fusion. Experimental results show that the proposed system can assess fall risks and trigger alarms with an accuracy rate of 92% at a speed of 20 frames per second.

  15. Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, David J.; Cancelliere, Antonino; Greco, Roberto; Bogaard, Thom A.

    2018-03-01

    Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity-duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

  16. Finnish early warning system for nuclear emergencies: Experiences during 2000-2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vesterbacka, K.; Lahtinen, J.; Ilander, T. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Research and Environmental Surveillance, Helsinki (Finland)

    2003-06-01

    The Finnish early warning system for nuclear emergencies consists of the nation-wide automatic external dose-rate monitoring network and the control system, which is known as USVA. The monitoring network comprises of approx. 300 AAM95 central stations and substations equipped with RD-02 or RD-02L GM tubes. Stations are thoroughly inspected on a routine basis every 4-5 years. During the inspection the GM tube, battery and power adapters of the station are replaced with new ones, as is also the modem if necessary, and the alarm connections to USVA are tested. The USVA system utilizes advanced www technology (including a browser-based, easy-to-use user interface) and a network of PCs with dedicated tasks. USVA's central hardware is located at STUK. USVA began its operation in the beginning of the year 2000, replacing the older y2k incompatible system. In a routine situation, USVA collects the monitoring data once a day. The USVA is capable of connecting (via telephone lines) to eight AAM stations concurrently, and the results from the whole country are obtained in about 15 minutes. When the system receives an alarm message from the network, it sends a text message to the mobile phones defined in a separate list and starts an automatic data collection procedure at all the stations situated within a certain distance (100 km) from the alarm-causing station. (orig.)

  17. Fall Risk Assessment and Early-Warning for Toddler Behaviors at Home

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mau-Tsuen Yang

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Accidental falls are the major cause of serious injuries in toddlers, with most of these falls happening at home. Instead of providing immediate fall detection based on short-term observations, this paper proposes an early-warning childcare system to monitor fall-prone behaviors of toddlers at home. Using 3D human skeleton tracking and floor plane detection based on depth images captured by a Kinect system, eight fall-prone behavioral modules of toddlers are developed and organized according to four essential criteria: posture, motion, balance, and altitude. The final fall risk assessment is generated by a multi-modal fusion using either a weighted mean thresholding or a support vector machine (SVM classification. Optimizations are performed to determine local parameter in each module and global parameters of the multi-modal fusion. Experimental results show that the proposed system can assess fall risks and trigger alarms with an accuracy rate of 92% at a speed of 20 frames per second.

  18. Fall Risk Assessment and Early-Warning for Toddler Behaviors at Home

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Mau-Tsuen; Chuang, Min-Wen

    2013-01-01

    Accidental falls are the major cause of serious injuries in toddlers, with most of these falls happening at home. Instead of providing immediate fall detection based on short-term observations, this paper proposes an early-warning childcare system to monitor fall-prone behaviors of toddlers at home. Using 3D human skeleton tracking and floor plane detection based on depth images captured by a Kinect system, eight fall-prone behavioral modules of toddlers are developed and organized according to four essential criteria: posture, motion, balance, and altitude. The final fall risk assessment is generated by a multi-modal fusion using either a weighted mean thresholding or a support vector machine (SVM) classification. Optimizations are performed to determine local parameter in each module and global parameters of the multi-modal fusion. Experimental results show that the proposed system can assess fall risks and trigger alarms with an accuracy rate of 92% at a speed of 20 frames per second. PMID:24335727

  19. Early warning signs checklists for relapse in bipolar depression and mania: utility, reliability and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobban, Fiona; Solis-Trapala, Ivonne; Symes, Wendy; Morriss, Richard

    2011-10-01

    Recognising early warning signs (EWS) of mood changes is a key part of many effective interventions for people with Bipolar Disorder (BD). This study describes the development of valid and reliable checklists required to assess these signs of depression and mania. Checklists of EWS based on previous research and participant feedback were designed for depression and mania and compared with spontaneous reporting of EWS. Psychometric properties and utility were examined in 96 participants with BD. The majority of participants did not spontaneously monitor EWS regularly prior to use of the checklists. The checklists identified most spontaneously generated EWS and led to a ten fold increase in the identification of EWS for depression and an eight fold increase for mania. The scales were generally reliable over time and responses were not associated with current mood. Frequency of monitoring for EWS correlated positively with social and occupational functioning for depression (beta=3.80, p=0.015) and mania (beta=3.92, p=0.008). The study is limited by a small sample size and the fact that raters were not blind to measures of mood and function. EWS checklists are useful and reliable clinical and research tools helping to generate enough EWS for an effective EWS intervention. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Peres

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity–duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily. The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors.

  1. Application of τc*Pd for identifying damaging earthquakes for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. L.; Lin, T. L.; Wu, Y. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) is an effective approach to mitigate earthquake damage. In this study, we used the seismic record by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net), because it has dense station coverage and co-located borehole strong-motion seismometers along with the free-surface strong-motion seismometers. We used inland earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) from 5.0 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2012. We choose 135 events and 10950 strong ground accelerograms recorded by the 696 strong ground accelerographs. Both the free-surface and the borehole data are used to calculate τc and Pd, respectively. The results show that τc*Pd has a good correlation with PGV and is a robust parameter for assessing the potential of damaging earthquake. We propose the value of τc*Pd determined from seconds after the arrival of P wave could be a threshold for the on-site type of EEW.

  2. Satellite radar interferometry for monitoring and early-stage warning of structural instability in archaeological sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tapete, D; Fanti, R; Casagli, N; Cecchi, R; Petrangeli, P

    2012-01-01

    Satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) monitoring campaigns were performed on the archaeological heritage of the Roman Forum, Palatino and Oppio Hills in the centre of Rome, Italy, to test the capabilities of persistent scatterer interferometry techniques for the preventive diagnosis of deformation threatening the structural stability of archaeological monuments and buried structures. ERS-1/2 and RADARSAT-1/2 SAR images were processed with the permanent scatterers InSAR (PSInSAR) and SqueeSAR approaches, and the identified measurement points (MP) were radar-interpreted to map the conservation criticalities in relation to the local geohazard factors and active deterioration processes. The multi-temporal reconstruction of past/recent instability events based on the MP deformation time series provided evidences of stabilization for the Domus Tiberiana as a consequence of recent restoration works, as well as of persistent deformation for the Temple of Magna Mater on the Palatino Hill and the structures of the Baths of Trajan on the Oppio Hill. Detailed time series analysis was also exploited to back monitor and understand the nature of the 2010 collapse that occurred close to Nero's Golden House, and to establish an early-stage warning procedure useful to preventively detect potential instability. (paper)

  3. MONITORING AND EARLY-WARNING OF METEOROLOGICAL RISK SITUATIONS IN OLTENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BURADA CRISTINA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Among the natural hazards affecting the human well-being and properties, meterological events are first to come in mind, due to their frequency, (immediate effects and (improving predictability. Assesment of these components are the first step in risk management, when the knowledge on the hazard type and characteristics is essential for defining the vulnerability and exposure and thus for preparing the mitigation plans. The spatial scale of dangerous meteorological situations is, in most cases, the regional one, but sometimes the area of major intensity or even the area of manifestation is small enough (e.g. hail, heavy rain showers to be classifed as ‚local’. Furthermore, other factors like the local geographical features, population density, goods and properties at risk (e.g. cultivated areas, buildings, infrastructure etc come into play in defining the severity of the weather event and/or the needs for interventions aiming to reduce the effects of the weather situation. In this context, the monitoring of potentially dangerous meteorological conditions and the improved forecasting capabilities and accuracy become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a short overview of the severe meteorological events affecting the Oltenia region along with aspects regarding their monitoring, early-warning and socio-economical impact in the area of interest, with a focus on the Dolj county during the 2013-2015 period.

  4. Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

    2016-02-01

    The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

  5. Economics of Early Warning Scores for identifying clinical deterioration-a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, A; Cronin, J; Whelan, R; Drummond, F J; Savage, E; Hegarty, J

    2018-02-01

    In 2013, a National Early Warning System (EWS) was implemented in Ireland. Whilst evidence exists to support the clinical effectiveness of EWS in the acute health care setting, there is a paucity of information on their cost and cost effectiveness. The objective of this systematic literature review was to critically evaluate the economic literature on the use of EWS in adult patients in acute health care settings for the timely detection of physiological deterioration. A systematic literature review was conducted to accumulate the economic evidence on the use of EWS in adult patients in acute health care settings. The search yielded one health technology assessment, two budget impact analyses and two cost descriptions. Three of the studies were Irish, and considered the national EWS system. A Dutch study reported financial consequences of a single parameter EWS, as part of a rapid response system, in a surgical ward. The fifth study examined an advanced triage system in a medical emergency admission unit in Wales. The economic evidence on the use of EWS amongst adult patients in acute health care settings for the timely detection of physiological deterioration is limited. Further research is required to investigate the cost effectiveness of EWS, and the appropriateness of using standard methods to do so. The recent implementation of a national EWS in Ireland offers a unique opportunity to bridge this gap in the literature to examine the costs and cost effectiveness of a nationally implemented EWS system.

  6. Modernization of the french early warning network in IRSN, experience feedback and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Debayle, C.; Bardet, A.; Beguin-Leprieur, M.; Chevreuil, M.; Malfait, V.; Mechenet, V. [PRP-ENV/SESURE/LS2A (France)

    2014-07-01

    Developed few years after the Chernobyl accident in 1991, the French early warning network, Teleray, composed by 160 ambient dose equivalent rate probes, had operated for 15 years. It was decided in 2007 to modernize this facility in order to keep the infrastructure up-to-date. The sensors, the data transmission network and the supervising system were considered separately, but each development took care about the modularity of the final IT system. After a benchmarking period and technical choices, a five years project started with the aim to increase the number of probes to 420, especially around the French nuclear facilities, to change the technology and the IT system including a new data transmission network. The project kick-off was planned in june 2011, but due to the Fukushima accident, the French government asked IRSN to implement a probe on the roof of the French embassy in Tokyo on March 18, 2011. Results and feedback will be discussed, focusing on new approach about data analysis purpose. In 2014, the modernization of this network will be finished one year before it was expected and with significant cost savings. All the relevant phase of the project will be described, including time schedule and economical aspects, with the aim to describe how it is now considered fundamental to have complementary mobile systems in case of nuclear crisis. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  7. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2017-12-01

    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  8. User interface prototype for geospatial early warning systems - a tsunami showcase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Esbrí, M. Á.

    2012-03-01

    The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI) is a central part of early warning systems (EWS) for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time. The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.

  9. User interface prototype for geospatial early warning systems – a tsunami showcase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hammitzsch

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The command and control unit's graphical user interface (GUI is a central part of early warning systems (EWS for man-made and natural hazards. The GUI combines and concentrates the relevant information of the system and offers it to human operators. It has to support operators successfully performing their tasks in complex workflows. Most notably in critical situations when operators make important decisions in a limited amount of time, the command and control unit's GUI has to work reliably and stably, providing the relevant information and functionality with the required quality and in time.

    The design of the GUI application is essential in the development of any EWS to manage hazards effectively. The design and development of such GUI is performed repeatedly for each EWS by various software architects and developers. Implementations differ based on their application in different domains. But similarities designing and equal approaches implementing GUIs of EWS are not quite harmonized enough with related activities and do not exploit possible synergy effects. Thus, the GUI's implementation of an EWS for tsunamis is successively introduced, providing a generic approach to be applied in each EWS for man-made and natural hazards.

  10. Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

    2007-01-01

    Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

  11. Collaborative community hazard exposure mapping: Distant Early Warning radar sites in Alaska's North Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, M.

    2015-12-01

    A method to produce hazard exposure maps that are developed in collaboration with local coastal communities is the focus of this research. Typically efforts to map community exposure to climate threats over large areas have limited consideration of local perspectives about associated risks, constraining their utility for local management. This problem is especially acute in remote locations such as the Arctic where there are unique vulnerabilities to coastal threats that can be fully understood only through inclusion of community stakeholders. Through collaboration with community members, this study identifies important coastal assets and places and surveys local perspectives of exposure to climate threats along Alaska's vast North Slope coastline spanning multiple municipalities. To model physical exposure, the study adapts the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to the Arctic context by incorporating the effects of open water distance determined by sea ice extent, and assigning CVI values to coastal assets and places according to direction and proximity. The study found that in addition to concerns about exposed municipal and industrial assets, North Slope communities viewed exposure of traditional activity sites as presenting a particular risk for communities. Highly exposed legacy Cold War Distant Early Warning Line sites are of particular concern with impacts ranging from financial risk to contamination of sensitive coastal marine environments. This research demonstrates a method to collaboratively map community exposure to coastal climate threats to better understand local risks and produce locally usable exposure maps.

  12. Application of a multi-channel system for continuous monitoring and an early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J H; Song, C H; Kim, B C; Gu, M B

    2006-01-01

    A multi-channel continuous toxicity monitoring system developed in our laboratory, based on two-stage mini-bioreactors, was successfully implemented in the form of computer-based data acquisition. The multi-channel system consists of a series of a two-stage minibioreactor systems connected by a fiber optic probe to a luminometer, and uses genetically engineered bioluminescent bacteria for the detection of the potential toxicity from the soluble chemicals. This system can be stably and continuously operated due to the separation of the culture reactor from the test reactor and accomplish easy and long-term monitoring without system shut down by abrupt inflows of severe polluting chemicals. Four different recombinant bioluminescent bacteria were used in different channels so that the modes of the samples toxicities can be reasonably identified and evaluated based upon the response signature of each channel. The bioluminescent signatures were delivered from four channels by switching one at once, while the data is automatically logged to an IBM compatible computer. We also achieved the enhancement of the system through the manipulation of the dilution rate and the use of thermo-lux fusion strains. Finally, this system is now being implemented to a drinking water reservoir and river for remote sensing as an early warning system.

  13. Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

  14. Miniaturized Water Flow and Level Monitoring System for Flood Disaster Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifedapo Abdullahi, Salami; Hadi Habaebi, Mohamed; Surya Gunawan, Teddy; Rafiqul Islam, MD

    2017-11-01

    This study presents the performance of a prototype miniaturised water flow and water level monitoring sensor designed towards supporting flood disaster early warning systems. The design involved selection of sensors, coding to control the system mechanism, and automatic data logging and storage. During the design phase, the apparatus was constructed where all the components were assembled using locally sourced items. Subsequently, under controlled laboratory environment, the system was tested by running water through the inlet during which the flow rate and rising water levels are automatically recorded and stored in a database via Microsoft Excel using Coolterm software. The system is simulated such that the water level readings measured in centimeters is output in meters using a multiplicative of 10. A total number of 80 readings were analyzed to evaluate the performance of the system. The result shows that the system is sensitive to water level rise and yielded accurate measurement of water level. But, the flow rate fluctuates due to the manual water supply that produced inconsistent flow. It was also observed that the flow sensor has a duty cycle of 50% of operating time under normal condition which implies that the performance of the flow sensor is optimal.

  15. Evaluation of earthquake parameters used in the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madlazim; Prastowo, Tjipto

    2016-02-01

    Twenty-two of a total of 30 earthquake events reported by the Indonesian Agency for Geophysics, Climatology and Meteorology during the time period 2007-2010 were falsely issued as tsunamigenic by the Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS). These 30 earthquakes were of different magnitudes and occurred in different locations. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the Ina-TEWS using common earthquake parameters, including the earthquake magnitude, origin time, depth, and epicenter. In total, 298 datasets assessed by the Ina-TEWS and the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) method were assessed. The global CMT method is considered by almost all seismologists to be a reference for the determination of these parameters as they have been proved to be accurate. It was found that the earthquake magnitude, origin time, and depth provided by the Ina-TEWS were significantly different from those given in the global CMT catalog, whereas the latitude and longitude positions of the events provided by both tsunami assessment systems were coincident. The performance of the Ina-TEWS, particularly in terms of accuracy, remains questionable and needs to be improved.

  16. Development of Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Forecasting as AN Essential Component of the Early Flood Warning System:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manukalo, V.

    2012-12-01

    Defining issue The river inundations are the most common and destructive natural hazards in Ukraine. Among non-structural flood management and protection measures a creation of the Early Flood Warning System is extremely important to be able to timely recognize dangerous situations in the flood-prone areas. Hydrometeorological information and forecasts are a core importance in this system. The primary factors affecting reliability and a lead - time of forecasts include: accuracy, speed and reliability with which real - time data are collected. The existing individual conception of monitoring and forecasting resulted in a need in reconsideration of the concept of integrated monitoring and forecasting approach - from "sensors to database and forecasters". Result presentation The Project: "Development of Flood Monitoring and Forecasting in the Ukrainian part of the Dniester River Basin" is presented. The project is developed by the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Service in a conjunction with the Water Management Agency and the Energy Company "Ukrhydroenergo". The implementation of the Project is funded by the Ukrainian Government and the World Bank. The author is nominated as the responsible person for coordination of activity of organizations involved in the Project. The term of the Project implementation: 2012 - 2014. The principal objectives of the Project are: a) designing integrated automatic hydrometeorological measurement network (including using remote sensing technologies); b) hydrometeorological GIS database construction and coupling with electronic maps for flood risk assessment; c) interface-construction classic numerical database -GIS and with satellite images, and radar data collection; d) providing the real-time data dissemination from observation points to forecasting centers; e) developing hydrometeoroogical forecasting methods; f) providing a flood hazards risk assessment for different temporal and spatial scales; g) providing a dissemination of

  17. AN INTEROPERABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR AIR POLLUTION EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON SENSOR WEB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC, which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research

  18. An Interoperable Architecture for Air Pollution Early Warning System Based on Sensor Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Saber, M.; Ghazi khanlou, H. J.

    2013-09-01

    Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research proposed an

  19. Design and challenges for a tsunami early warning system in the Marmara Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necmioğlu, Öcal

    2016-01-01

    Since 1900, around 90,000 people have lost their lives in 76 earthquakes in Turkey, with a total affected population of around 7 million and direct losses of around 25 billion USD. Based on a time-dependent model that includes coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake with moment magnitude Mw = 7.4, Parsons (J Geophys Res. 109, 2004) concluded that the probability of an earthquake with Mw > 7 in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul is 35 to 70 % in the next 30 years. According to a 2011 study, an earthquake with Mw = 7.25 on the Main Marmara Fault is expected to heavily damage or destroy 2 to 4 % of around 1,000,000 buildings in Istanbul with a population around 13 million, with 9 to 15 % of the buildings receiving medium damage and 20 to 34 % of the buildings damaged lightly (Erdik, Science 341:72, 2013). In the absence of adequate post-earthquake assembly areas especially in the heavily urbanized Istanbul, it is evident that after a major earthquake, especially in the coastal parts of the city, citizens would be storming to landfill assembly and recreational areas. Besides earthquakes, around 30 tsunamis have been reported by Altınok et al. (Natural Hazards Earth System Science 11:273-293, 2011) in the Marmara Sea. Among those, catastrophic earthquakes such as 1509, 1766, and 1894 resulted in considerable tsunamis and some damage. The latest tsunami observed in Marmara was due to a triggered submarine landslide of the 1999 Mw = 7.4 Kocaeli earthquake which led to reported run-up heights of 1-3 m in most places (Tinti et al., Marine Geology 225:311-330, 2006). In this study, I propose a design for a tsunami warning system specific for the Marmara region that is strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system (due to the short arrival times of tsunami) and stakeholders of the tsunami mitigation activities, such as local and regional components of disaster and emergency management and civil protection units, to ensure that the citizens

  20. Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and

  1. K-Ar ages of Early Miocene arc-type volcanoes in northern New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayward, B.W.; Black, P.M.; Smith, I.E.M.; Ballance, P.F.; Itaya, T.; Doi, M.; Takagi, M.; Bergman, S.; Adams, C.J.; Herzer, R.H.; Robertson, D.J.

    2001-01-01

    Understanding the temporal and spatial development of the Early Miocene Northland Volcanic Arc is critical to interpreting the patterns of volcanic activity in northern New Zealand through the Late Cenozoic. The northwesterly trending arc is considered to have developed above a southwest-dipping subduction system. The distribution of its constituent eruptive centres is described in terms of an eastern belt that extends along the eastern side of Northland and a complementary broad western belt which includes subaerial and submarine volcanic edifices. Critical examination of all 216 K-Ar ages available, including 180 previously unpublished ages, and their assessment against tectonic, lithostratigraphic, seismic stratigraphic, and biostratigraphic constraints, leads us to deduce a detailed chronology of periods of activity for the various Early (and Middle) Miocene arc-type volcanic complexes and centres of northern New Zealand: Waipoua Shield Volcano Complex (19-18 Ma, Altonian); Kaipara Volcanic Complex (23-16 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Manukau Volcanic Complex (c. 23-15.5 Ma, Waitakian-Clifdenian); North Cape Volcanic Centre (23-18 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Whangaroa Volcanic Complex (22.5-17.5 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Taurikura Volcanic Complex (22-15.5 Ma, Otaian-Clifdenian); Parahaki Dacites (22.5-18 Ma, Waitakian-Altonian); Kuaotunu Volcanic Complex (18.5-11 Ma, Altonian-Waiauan). In general, volcanic activity does not show geographic migration with time, and the western (25-15.5 Ma) and eastern (23-11 Ma) belts appear to have developed concurrently. (author). 123 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab

  2. Efficient Flame Detection and Early Warning Sensors on Combustible Materials Using Hierarchical Graphene Oxide/Silicone Coatings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qian; Gong, Li-Xiu; Li, Yang; Cao, Cheng-Fei; Tang, Long-Cheng; Wu, Lianbin; Zhao, Li; Zhang, Guo-Dong; Li, Shi-Neng; Gao, Jiefeng; Li, Yongjin; Mai, Yiu-Wing

    2018-01-23

    Design and development of smart sensors for rapid flame detection in postcombustion and early fire warning in precombustion situations are critically needed to improve the fire safety of combustible materials in many applications. Herein, we describe the fabrication of hierarchical coatings created by assembling a multilayered graphene oxide (GO)/silicone structure onto different combustible substrate materials. The resulting coatings exhibit distinct temperature-responsive electrical resistance change as efficient early warning sensors for detecting abnormal high environmental temperature, thus enabling fire prevention below the ignition temperature of combustible materials. After encountering a flame attack, we demonstrate extremely rapid flame detection response in 2-3 s and excellent flame self-extinguishing retardancy for the multilayered GO/silicone structure that can be synergistically transformed to a multiscale graphene/nanosilica protection layer. The hierarchical coatings developed are promising for fire prevention and protection applications in various critical fire risk and related perilous circumstances.

  3. United States earthquake early warning system: how theory and analysis can save America before the big one happens

    OpenAIRE

    Rockabrand, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The United States is extremely vulnerable to catastrophic earthquakes. More than 143 million Americans may be threatened by damaging earthquakes in the next 50 years. This thesis argues that the United States is unprepared for the most catastrophic earthquakes the country faces today. Earthquake early warning systems are a major solution in practice to reduce economic risk, to protect property and the environment, and to save lives. Ot...

  4. Evaluation on the Implementation of Early Warning System for Debris Flow in Merapi Area (Case Study at Boyong River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Cahyadi Achmad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of disasters caused by volcanic activity of Mount Merapi is secondary disaster. The disaster usually occurs after eruption and this volcanic activity produces volcanic and pyroclastic material deposit around the top of the mountain as a result of previous eruption. This material might collapse downward in the form of debris flow as it is affected by natural event such as high intensity rainfall. Therefore, a research is needed to analyze whether existing forecasting and early warning system are capable to provide information for the people living in hazardous area before the debris flood occur. This research was carried out using field survey, observation and interview method. Data analysis used qualitative descriptive method by making description of actual condition of the researched location general condition and qualitative analysis of telemetry system installed on Mount Merapi. The qualitative analysis of telemetry system covers network, hardware, software, power supply, security system, operation and maintenance, also human resources. Research analysis used primary and secondary data. Research results revealed that mean rainfall intensity above of 60 mm/hour might trigger debris flood. Early warning should be given at the rainfall intensity level of 50-55 mm/hour, and debris flood time travel from the upstream to the observed location in Pulowatu Village is 45 minute. Based on the analysis of the present forecasting and early warning system, it is known that some of the equipment is not well functioned, so that debris flow cannot be predicted and detected. This is caused by the lack of human resource quality of the officers in operating and maintaining the equipment. Concerning that matter, it is necessary to conduct some improvement to achieve better forecasting and early warning system in order to give information regarding occurrence of debris flow.

  5. Peculiarities of the Use of Satellite Information for Early Warning of Natural Meteorological and Hydrological Disasters in Georgia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shengelia, L.; Kordzakhia, G.; Tvauri, G.; Tatishvili, M.; Mkurnalidze, I.

    2009-01-01

    The peculiarities of the use of the information of the satellites for early warning of disasters of meteorological and hydrological origin for the territory of Georgia are investigated. The various characteristics of modern satellites and sensors installed are reviewed. The spheres of their implementation are indicated. The disasters that are typical of Georgia and to which the application of satellite information is effective are considered. (author)

  6. Demonstration of the Cascadia G‐FAST geodetic earthquake early warning system for the Nisqually, Washington, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, Brendan; Schmidt, David; Bodin, Paul; Vidale, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hartog, Renate; Kress, Victor; Melbourne, Tim; Santillian, Marcelo; Minson, Sarah E.; Jamison, Dylan

    2016-01-01

    A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help provide robust estimates of large‐magnitude earthquakes. In this article we demonstrate the performance of the latter, the Geodetic First Approximation of Size and Time (G‐FAST) geodetic early warning system, using simulated displacements for the 2001Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake. We test the timing and performance of the two G‐FAST source characterization modules, peak ground displacement scaling, and Centroid Moment Tensor‐driven finite‐fault‐slip modeling under ideal, latent, noisy, and incomplete data conditions. We show good agreement between source parameters computed by G‐FAST with previously published and postprocessed seismic and geodetic results for all test cases and modeling modules, and we discuss the challenges with integration into the U.S. Geological Survey’s ShakeAlert EEW system.

  7. A hydro-mechanical framework for early warning of rainfall-induced landslides (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godt, J.; Lu, N.; Baum, R. L.

    2013-12-01

    Landslide early warning requires an estimate of the location, timing, and magnitude of initial movement, and the change in volume and momentum of material as it travels down a slope or channel. In many locations advance assessment of landslide location, volume, and momentum is possible, but prediction of landslide timing entails understanding the evolution of rainfall and soil-water conditions, and consequent effects on slope stability in real time. Existing schemes for landslide prediction generally rely on empirical relations between landslide occurrence and rainfall amount and duration, however, these relations do not account for temporally variable rainfall nor the variably saturated processes that control the hydro-mechanical response of hillside materials to rainfall. Although limited by the resolution and accuracy of rainfall forecasts and now-casts in complex terrain and by the inherent difficulty in adequately characterizing subsurface materials, physics-based models provide a general means to quantitatively link rainfall and landslide occurrence. To obtain quantitative estimates of landslide potential from physics-based models using observed or forecasted rainfall requires explicit consideration of the changes in effective stress that result from changes in soil moisture and pore-water pressures. The physics that control soil-water conditions are transient, nonlinear, hysteretic, and dependent on material composition and history. In order to examine the physical processes that control infiltration and effective stress in variably saturated materials, we present field and laboratory results describing intrinsic relations among soil water and mechanical properties of hillside materials. At the REV (representative elementary volume) scale, the interaction between pore fluids and solid grains can be effectively described by the relation between soil suction, soil water content, hydraulic conductivity, and suction stress. We show that these relations can be

  8. Early Warning System in ASEAN Countries Using Capital Market Index Return: Modiied Markov Regime Switching Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imam Wahyudi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Asia's  inancial  crisis  in  July  1997  affects  currency,  capital  market,  and  real  market throughout  Asian  countries.  Countries  in  southeast  region  (ASEAN,  including  Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, are some of the countries where the crisis hit  the  most.  In  these  countries,  where  inancial  sectors  are  far  more  developed  than  real sectors  and  the  money  market  sectors,  most  of  the  economic  activities  are  conducted  in capital  market.  Movement  in  the  capital  market  could  be  a  proxy  to  describe  the  overall economic  situation  and  therefore  the  prediction  of  it  could  be  an  early  warning  system  of economic crises. This paper tries to investigate movement in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,  Singapore,  and  Thailand  capital  market  to  build  an  early  warning  system from inancial sectors perspective. This paper will be very beneicial for the government to anticipate the forthcoming crisis. The insight of this paper is from Hamilton (1990 model of regime switching process in which he divide the movement of currency into two regimes, describe the switching transition based on Markov process and creates different model for each regimes. Differ from Hamilton, our research focuses on index return instead of currency to  model  the  regime  switching.  This  research  aimed  to  ind  the  probability  of  crisis  in  the future by combining the probability of switching and the probability distribution function of each  regime.  Probability  of  switching  is  estimated  by  categorizing  the  movement  in  index return  into  two  regimes  (negative  return  in  regime  1  and  positive  return  in  regime  2  then measuring  the  proportion  of  switching  to  regime  1  in  t  given  regime

  9. Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space-time-variable rainfall thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segoni, S.; Battistini, A.; Rossi, G.; Rosi, A.; Lagomarsino, D.; Catani, F.; Moretti, S.; Casagli, N.

    2015-04-01

    We set up an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Tuscany (23 000 km2). The system is based on a set of state-of-the-art intensity-duration rainfall thresholds (Segoni et al., 2014b) and makes use of LAMI (Limited Area Model Italy) rainfall forecasts and real-time rainfall data provided by an automated network of more than 300 rain gauges. The system was implemented in a WebGIS to ease the operational use in civil protection procedures: it is simple and intuitive to consult, and it provides different outputs. When switching among different views, the system is able to focus both on monitoring of real-time data and on forecasting at different lead times up to 48 h. Moreover, the system can switch between a basic data view where a synoptic scenario of the hazard can be shown all over the region and a more in-depth view were the rainfall path of rain gauges can be displayed and constantly compared with rainfall thresholds. To better account for the variability of the geomorphological and meteorological settings encountered in Tuscany, the region is subdivided into 25 alert zones, each provided with a specific threshold. The warning system reflects this subdivision: using a network of more than 300 rain gauges, it allows for the monitoring of each alert zone separately so that warnings can be issued independently. An important feature of the warning system is that the visualization of the thresholds in the WebGIS interface may vary in time depending on when the starting time of the rainfall event is set. The starting time of the rainfall event is considered as a variable by the early warning system: whenever new rainfall data are available, a recursive algorithm identifies the starting time for which the rainfall path is closest to or overcomes the threshold. This is considered the most hazardous condition, and it is displayed by the WebGIS interface. The early warning system is used to forecast and monitor the landslide hazard in the whole region

  10. Humanizing Aggregated Data: Developing Personas to Prioritize User Needs for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Jayanty, N. K.; Sellnow, D. D.; Given, D. D.; DeGroot, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Methods that use storytelling to gather and synthesize data from people can be advantageous in understanding user needs and designing successful communication products. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we research and prioritize user needs for the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning system (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/), drawing on best practices from social and behavioral science, risk communication, and human-centered design. We apply quantitative and qualitative human data collection methods including user surveys, interviews, journey maps, personas, and scenarios. Human-centered design methods leverage storytelling (a) in the acquisition of qualitative behavioral data (e.g. with journey mapping), (b) through goal-driven behaviors and needs that are synthesized into a persona as a composite model of the data, and (c) within context scenarios (the story plot or projected circumstances) in which the persona is placed in context to inform the design of relevant and usable products or services. ShakeAlert, operated by the USGS and partners, has transitioned into a production prototype phase in which users are permitted to begin testing pilot implementations to take protective actions in response to an earthquake alert. While a subset of responses will be automated (e.g., opening fire house doors), other applications of the technology will alert individuals by broadcast, public address, or mobile device notifications and require self-protective behavioral decisions (e.g., "Drop, Cover, and Hold On"). To better understand ShakeAlert user decisions and needs, we use human-centered design methods to synthesize aggregated behavioral data into "personas," which model the common behavioral patterns that can be used to guide plans for the ShakeAlert interface, messaging, and training. We present user data, methods, and resulting personas that will inform decisions moving forward to shape ShakeAlert messaging and training that will be most usable by alert recipients.

  11. Toward a better understanding of nearshore meteotsunami evolution, and effective meteotsunami early-warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheremet, A.; Li, C.; Shrira, V. I.

    2017-12-01

    We present high-resolution observations collected in 2008 on the Atcahfalaya shelf that capture the shoaling evolution of a meteotsunami (MT), including the disintegration into the train of solitons (solibore). One of the intriguing elements of this process is a spectacular 1.5-m solitary-wave (soliton), that precedes the arrival of the MT solibore by approximately 5 min, reaching the observation site propagating through a background of nearly-calm waters (20-cm height wind waves). Solitons, products of the MT disintegration process, are observed at all experiment sites, covering approx. 200 km shoreline. We interpret observations employing numerical simulations of a simplified hydrodynamic model based on the variable coefficient KdV equation. The analysis shows that observed wide-spread soliton presence and the soliton/solibore formation are the result of a complicated evolution process involving refraction, collision, and nonlinear interaction of multiple meteotsunami waves.Our results highlight the substantial lack of detail of the current picture of the nonlinear transformation of a MT from generation to its shoreline manifestation. A realistic reconstruction of MT evolution is at present almost impossible based on the current poor spatial and temporal resolution MT observations, overwhelmingly confined to the shoreline. Since the MTs tend to disintegrate into very short (down to 10s) pulses, even modern tidal gauges (1 min resolution) fail to capture essential features of its evolution. We also briefly discuss an ongoing field experiment that carries further the effort to collect high-resolution MT measurements, and that will investigate and test methodologies for early warning systems.

  12. Feedback about Earthquake Early Warning: Questionnaire survey after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, M.; Hoshiba, M.; Matsui, M.; Hayashimoto, N.; Wakayama, A.

    2013-05-01

    We will report the results of a questionnaire survey on Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), conducted by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in February 2012, approximately one year after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0). In the questionnaire survey, which is based on the performance of the 5-year operation of EEW, the respondents were asked how they obtained EEW, how they reacted to EEW and how useful they considered EEW as a safety measure against strong ground shaking. Respondents numbered 817 in the Tohoku district survey and 2,000 in the nationwide survey. Most respondents received EEW messages from TV or cell phone broadcast mail service. Most respondents took some actions in the Tohoku district (74 percent) and nationwide (54 percent); 16 and 17 percent, respectively, tried to take action but could not; and 10 and 29 percent, respectively, did nothing. More than 90 and 80 percent of respondents thought EEW was useful in the Tohoku district and nationwide, respectively. Many people stated that EEW helped them prepare for strong shaking, even if they did not actually take specific actions. The percentage of respondents evaluating EEW to be useful was larger among Tohoku than nationwide. Likewise, the percentage of people who were able to take useful actions was larger in the Tohoku than nationwide. The difference may be attributed to the degree of experience of EEW that had been frequently issued particularly to the Tohoku district since March the 11th 2011. The benefit of the EEW system was recognized both as a trigger of taking actual actions and as an aid to mental preparedness before strong jolts began. Most people considered that the EEW system was useful despite of some false alarms. Although it is necessary to improve the EEW system to reduce false alarms and make the predictions more precise, the results of this survey should be encouraging to the community of promoting and researching EEW.

  13. Rapid kinematic finite source inversion for Tsunamic Early Warning using high rate GNSS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, K.; Liu, Z.; Song, Y. T.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has been used for rapid earthquake source inversion towards tsunami early warning. In practice, two approaches, i.e., static finite source inversion based on permanent co-seismic offsets and kinematic finite source inversion using high-rate (>= 1 Hz) co-seismic displacement waveforms, are often employed to fulfill the task. The static inversion is relatively easy to be implemented and does not require additional constraints on rupture velocity, duration, and temporal variation. However, since most GNSS receivers are deployed onshore locating on one side of the subduction fault, there is very limited resolution on near-trench fault slip using GNSS in static finite source inversion. On the other hand, the high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms, which contain the timing information of earthquake rupture explicitly and static offsets implicitly, have the potential to improve near-trench resolution by reconciling with the depth-dependent megathrust rupture behaviors. In this contribution, we assess the performance of rapid kinematic finite source inversion using high-rate GNSS by three selected historical tsunamigenic cases: the 2010 Mentawai, 2011 Tohoku and 2015 Illapel events. With respect to the 2010 Mentawai case, it is a typical tsunami earthquake with most slip concentrating near the trench. The static inversion has little resolution there and incorrectly puts slip at greater depth (>10km). In contrast, the recorded GNSS displacement waveforms are deficit in high-frequency energy, the kinematic source inversion recovers a shallow slip patch (depth less than 6 km) and tsunami runups are predicted quite reasonably. For the other two events, slip from kinematic and static inversion show similar characteristics and comparable tsunami scenarios, which may be related to dense GNSS network and behavior of the rupture. Acknowledging the complexity of kinematic source inversion in real-time, we adopt the back

  14. Remote sensing-based time series models for malaria early warning in the highlands of Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Midekisa Alemayehu

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria is one of the leading public health problems in most of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Ethiopia. Almost all demographic groups are at risk of malaria because of seasonal and unstable transmission of the disease. Therefore, there is a need to develop malaria early-warning systems to enhance public health decision making for control and prevention of malaria epidemics. Data from orbiting earth-observing sensors can monitor environmental risk factors that trigger malaria epidemics. Remotely sensed environmental indicators were used to examine the influences of climatic and environmental variability on temporal patterns of malaria cases in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Methods In this study seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA models were used to quantify the relationship between malaria cases and remotely sensed environmental variables, including rainfall, land-surface temperature (LST, vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI, and actual evapotranspiration (ETa with lags ranging from one to three months. Predictions from the best model with environmental variables were compared to the actual observations from the last 12 months of the time series. Results Malaria cases exhibited positive associations with LST at a lag of one month and positive associations with indicators of moisture (rainfall, EVI and ETa at lags from one to three months. SARIMA models that included these environmental covariates had better fits and more accurate predictions, as evidenced by lower AIC and RMSE values, than models without environmental covariates. Conclusions Malaria risk indicators such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, LST, EVI, and ETa exhibited significant lagged associations with malaria cases in the Amhara region and improved model fit and prediction accuracy. These variables can be monitored frequently and extensively across large geographic areas using data from earth-observing sensors to support public

  15. Early warning of cotton bollworm resistance associated with intensive planting of Bt cotton in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haonan Zhang

    Full Text Available Transgenic crops producing Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt toxins kill some key insect pests, but evolution of resistance by pests can reduce their efficacy. The predominant strategy for delaying pest resistance to Bt crops requires refuges of non-Bt host plants to promote survival of susceptible pests. To delay pest resistance to transgenic cotton producing Bt toxin Cry1Ac, farmers in the United States and Australia planted refuges of non-Bt cotton, while farmers in China have relied on "natural" refuges of non-Bt host plants other than cotton. Here we report data from a 2010 survey showing field-evolved resistance to Cry1Ac of the major target pest, cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera, in northern China. Laboratory bioassay results show that susceptibility to Cry1Ac was significantly lower in 13 field populations from northern China, where Bt cotton has been planted intensively, than in two populations from sites in northwestern China where exposure to Bt cotton has been limited. Susceptibility to Bt toxin Cry2Ab did not differ between northern and northwestern China, demonstrating that resistance to Cry1Ac did not cause cross-resistance to Cry2Ab, and implying that resistance to Cry1Ac in northern China is a specific adaptation caused by exposure to this toxin in Bt cotton. Despite the resistance detected in laboratory bioassays, control failures of Bt cotton have not been reported in China. This early warning may spur proactive countermeasures, including a switch to transgenic cotton producing two or more toxins distinct from Cry1A toxins.

  16. An Architecture for Automated Fire Detection Early Warning System Based on Geoprocessing Service Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Saber, M.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Joze Ghazi Khanlou, H.

    2013-09-01

    Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS) has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.

  17. DATA QUALIFICATION REPORT: WATER-LEVEL DATA FROM THE NYE COUNTY EARLY WARNING DRILLING PROGRAM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F. H. Dove, P. Sanchez, and L. Saraka

    2000-04-21

    The objective of this work is to evaluate unqualified, water-level data gathered under the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) and to determine whether the status of the data should be changed to ''qualified'' data in accordance with AP-SIII.2Q (Qualification of Unqualified Data and the Documentation of Rationale for Accepted Data). The corroboration method (as defined in Attachment 2 of AP-SIII.2Q) was implemented to qualify water-level data from Nye County measurements obtained directly from the Nye County Nuclear Waste Repository Program Office (NWRPO). Comparison of United States Geological Survey (USGS) measurements contained in DTN GS990608312312.003 with the Nye County water-level data has shown that the differences in water-level altitudes for the same wells are significantly less than 1 meter. This is an acceptable finding. Evaluation and recommendation criteria have been strictly applied to qualify Nye County measurements of water levels in selected wells measured by the USGS. However, the process of qualifying measured results by corroboration also builds confidence that the Nye County method for measurement of water levels is adequate for the intended use of the data (which is regional modeling). Therefore, it is reasonable to extend the term of ''qualified'' to water-level measurements in the remaining Nye County Phase I wells on the basis that the method has been shown to produce adequate results for the intended purpose of supporting large-scale modeling activities for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The Data Qualification Team recommends the Nye County, water-level data contained in Appendix D of this report be designated as ''qualified''. These data document manual measurements of water-levels in eight (8) EWDP Phase I drillholes that were obtained prior to the field installation of continuous monitoring equipment.

  18. Developing the remote sensing-based early warning system for monitoring TSS concentrations in Lake Mead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imen, Sanaz; Chang, Ni-Bin; Yang, Y Jeffrey

    2015-09-01

    Adjustment of the water treatment process to changes in water quality is a focus area for engineers and managers of water treatment plants. The desired and preferred capability depends on timely and quantitative knowledge of water quality monitoring in terms of total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations. This paper presents the development of a suite of nowcasting and forecasting methods by using high-resolution remote-sensing-based monitoring techniques on a daily basis. First, the integrated data fusion and mining (IDFM) technique was applied to develop a near real-time monitoring system for daily nowcasting of the TSS concentrations. Then a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input (NARXNET) model was selected and applied for forecasting analysis of the changes in TSS concentrations over time on a rolling basis onward using the IDFM technique. The implementation of such an integrated forecasting and nowcasting approach was assessed by a case study at Lake Mead hosting the water intake for Las Vegas, Nevada, in the water-stressed western U.S. Long-term monthly averaged results showed no simultaneous impact from forest fire events on accelerating the rise of TSS concentration. However, the results showed a probable impact of a decade of drought on increasing TSS concentration in the Colorado River Arm and Overton Arm. Results of the forecasting model highlight the reservoir water level as a significant parameter in predicting TSS in Lake Mead. In addition, the R-squared value of 0.98 and the root mean square error of 0.5 between the observed and predicted TSS values demonstrates the reliability and application potential of this remote sensing-based early warning system in terms of TSS projections at a drinking water intake. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.

    2012-04-01

    Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.

  20. Development of Early Warning System Using ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 Data to Detect and Prevent Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, M.; Nagatani, I.; Watanabe, T.; Tadono, T.; Miyoshi, H.; Watanabe, M.; Koyama, C.; Shimada, M.; Ogawa, T.; Ishii, K.; Higashiuwatoko, T.; Miura, M.; Okonogi, H.; Adachi, K.; Morita, T.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite observation is an efficient method for monitoring deforestation, and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is useful especially in cloudy tropical forest regions. In this context, JICA and JAXA cooperate to operate the deforestation monitoring system acquired data by the Phased Array type L-band SAR-2 (PALSAR-2) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), which is named as "JICA-JAXA Forest Early Warning System in the Tropics" (JJ-FAST), and it have been released on November 2016. JJ-FAST detects deforestation areas, and provides their positional information for 77 countries, which is covering almost all tropical forests. It uses PALSAR-2 ScanSAR observation mode (wide-observation swath width) image, which is 50 m spatial resolution acquired at 1.5 months interval. The dark change areas compared with in two acquisitions by PALSAR-2 HV-polarization images are identified as deforestations in the system. We conducted field surveys to validate detection accuracy of the JJ-FAST in Peru (November and December, 2016), Botswana (April, 2017), and Gabon (July, 2017). As the results, 15 of 18 detected areas were correct deforestation areas, therefore user's accuracy could be confirmed as 83.3 % from limited number of the validation data. Erroneous detection areas were caused by seasonal change in agricultural land and open burning in grass land. For improvement of the accuracy, such areas must be excluded from the analysis by additional algorithms e.g. estimation of accurate masking for non-forested areas. Therefore, we are revising the forest map used for pre-processing step in the system. The JJ-FAST can be expected to contribute to monitor and reduce illegal deforestation activities in tropical forests.

  1. DATA QUALIFICATION REPORT: WATER-LEVEL DATA FROM THE NYE COUNTY EARLY WARNING DRILLING PROGRAM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F. H. Dove, P. Sanchez, and L. Saraka

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this work is to evaluate unqualified, water-level data gathered under the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program (EWDP) and to determine whether the status of the data should be changed to ''qualified'' data in accordance with AP-SIII.2Q (Qualification of Unqualified Data and the Documentation of Rationale for Accepted Data). The corroboration method (as defined in Attachment 2 of AP-SIII.2Q) was implemented to qualify water-level data from Nye County measurements obtained directly from the Nye County Nuclear Waste Repository Program Office (NWRPO). Comparison of United States Geological Survey (USGS) measurements contained in DTN GS990608312312.003 with the Nye County water-level data has shown that the differences in water-level altitudes for the same wells are significantly less than 1 meter. This is an acceptable finding. Evaluation and recommendation criteria have been strictly applied to qualify Nye County measurements of water levels in selected wells measured by the USGS. However, the process of qualifying measured results by corroboration also builds confidence that the Nye County method for measurement of water levels is adequate for the intended use of the data (which is regional modeling). Therefore, it is reasonable to extend the term of ''qualified'' to water-level measurements in the remaining Nye County Phase I wells on the basis that the method has been shown to produce adequate results for the intended purpose of supporting large-scale modeling activities for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The Data Qualification Team recommends the Nye County, water-level data contained in Appendix D of this report be designated as ''qualified''. These data document manual measurements of water-levels in eight (8) EWDP Phase I drillholes that were obtained prior to the field installation of continuous monitoring equipment

  2. AN ARCHITECTURE FOR AUTOMATED FIRE DETECTION EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON GEOPROCESSING SERVICE COMPOSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly discovering, sharing, integrating and applying geospatial information are key issues in the domain of emergency response and disaster management. Due to the distributed nature of data and processing resources in disaster management, utilizing a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA to take advantages of workflow of services provides an efficient, flexible and reliable implementations to encounter different hazardous situation. The implementation specification of the Web Processing Service (WPS has guided geospatial data processing in a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA platform to become a widely accepted solution for processing remotely sensed data on the web. This paper presents an architecture design based on OGC web services for automated workflow for acquisition, processing remotely sensed data, detecting fire and sending notifications to the authorities. A basic architecture and its building blocks for an automated fire detection early warning system are represented using web-based processing of remote sensing imageries utilizing MODIS data. A composition of WPS processes is proposed as a WPS service to extract fire events from MODIS data. Subsequently, the paper highlights the role of WPS as a middleware interface in the domain of geospatial web service technology that can be used to invoke a large variety of geoprocessing operations and chaining of other web services as an engine of composition. The applicability of proposed architecture by a real world fire event detection and notification use case is evaluated. A GeoPortal client with open-source software was developed to manage data, metadata, processes, and authorities. Investigating feasibility and benefits of proposed framework shows that this framework can be used for wide area of geospatial applications specially disaster management and environmental monitoring.

  3. Sounding the Alert: Designing an Effective Voice for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, E. R.; Given, D. D.

    2015-12-01

    The USGS is working with partners to develop the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2014/3083/) to protect life and property along the U.S. West Coast, where the highest national seismic hazard is concentrated. EEW sends an alert that shaking from an earthquake is on its way (in seconds to tens of seconds) to allow recipients or automated systems to take appropriate actions at their location to protect themselves and/or sensitive equipment. ShakeAlert is transitioning toward a production prototype phase in which test users might begin testing applications of the technology. While a subset of uses will be automated (e.g., opening fire house doors), other applications will alert individuals by radio or cellphone notifications and require behavioral decisions to protect themselves (e.g., "Drop, Cover, Hold On"). The project needs to select and move forward with a consistent alert sound to be widely and quickly recognized as an earthquake alert. In this study we combine EEW science and capabilities with an understanding of human behavior from the social and psychological sciences to provide insight toward the design of effective sounds to help best motivate proper action by alert recipients. We present a review of existing research and literature, compiled as considerations and recommendations for alert sound characteristics optimized for EEW. We do not yet address wording of an audible message about the earthquake (e.g., intensity and timing until arrival of shaking or possible actions), although it will be a future component to accompany the sound. We consider pitch(es), loudness, rhythm, tempo, duration, and harmony. Important behavioral responses to sound to take into account include that people respond to discordant sounds with anxiety, can be calmed by harmony and softness, and are innately alerted by loud and abrupt sounds, although levels high enough to be auditory stressors can negatively impact human judgment.

  4. Early warning indicators for HIV drug resistance in Cameroon during the year 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billong, Serge C; Fokam, Joseph; Nkwescheu, Armand S; Kembou, Etienne; Milenge, Pascal; Tsomo, Zephirin; Dion, Grace Ngute; Aghokeng, Avelin F; Mpoudi, Eitel N; Ndumbe, Peter M; Colizzi, Vittorio; Elat Nfetam, Jean B

    2012-01-01

    Rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings is accompanied with an increasing risk of HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), which in turn could compromise the performance of national ART rollout programme. In order to sustain the effectiveness of ART in a resource-limited country like Cameroon, HIVDR early warning indicators (EWI) may provide relevant corrective measures to support the control and therapeutic management of AIDS. A retrospective study was conducted in 2010 among 40 ART sites (12 Approved Treatment Centers and 28 Management Units) distributed over the 10 regions of Cameroon. Five standardized EWIs were selected for the evaluation using data from January through December, among which: (1) Good ARV prescribing practices: target = 100%; (2) Patient lost to follow-up: target ≤ 20%; (3) Patient retention on first line ART: target ≥ 70%; (4) On-time drug pick-up: target ≥ 90%; (5) ARV drug supply continuity: target = 100%. Analysis was performed using a Data Quality Assessment tool, following WHO protocol. THE NUMBER OF SITES ATTAINING THE REQUIRED PERFORMANCE ARE: 90% (36/40) for EWI(1), 20% (8/40) for EWI(2); 20% (8/40) for EWI(3); 0% (0/37) for EWI(4); and 45% (17/38) for EWI 5. ARV prescribing practices were in conformity with the national guidelines in almost all the sites, whereas patient adherence to ART (EWI(2), EWI(3), and EWI(4)) was very low. A high rate of patients was lost-to-follow-up and others failing first line ART before 12 months of initiation. Discontinuity in drug supply observed in about half of the sites may negatively impact ARV prescription and patient adherence. These poor ART performances may also be due to low number of trained staff and community disengagement. The poor performance of the national ART programme, due to patient non-adherence and drug stock outs, requires corrective measures to limit risks of HIVDR emergence in Cameroon.

  5. Assessment of critical minerals: Updated application of an early-warning screening methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullough, Erin A.; Nassar, Nedal

    2017-01-01

    Increasing reliance on non-renewable mineral resources reinforces the need for identifying potential supply constraints before they occur. The US National Science and Technology Council recently released a report that outlines a methodology for screening potentially critical minerals based on three indicators: supply risk (R), production growth (G), and market dynamics (M). This early-warning screening was initially applied to 78 minerals across the years 1996 to 2013 and identified a subset of minerals as “potentially critical” based on the geometric average of these indicators—designated as criticality potential (C). In this study, the screening methodology has been updated to include data for 2014, as well as to incorporate revisions and modifications to the data, where applicable. Overall, C declined in 2014 for the majority of minerals examined largely due to decreases in production concentration and price volatility. However, the results vary considerably across minerals, with some minerals, such as gallium, recording increases for all three indicators. In addition to assessing magnitudinal changes, this analysis also examines the significance of the change relative to historical variation for each mineral. For example, although mined nickel’s R declined modestly in 2014 in comparison to that of other minerals, it was by far the largest annual change recorded for mined nickel across all years examined and is attributable to Indonesia’s ban on the export of unprocessed minerals. Based on the 2014 results, 20 minerals with the highest C values have been identified for further study including the rare earths, gallium, germanium, rhodium, tantalum, and tungsten.

  6. A spatiotemporal dengue fever early warning model accounting for nonlinear associations with meteorological factors: a Bayesian maximum entropy approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chieh-Han; Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chien, Lung-Chang

    2014-05-01

    Dengue fever has been identified as one of the most widespread vector-borne diseases in tropical and sub-tropical. In the last decade, dengue is an emerging infectious disease epidemic in Taiwan especially in the southern area where have annually high incidences. For the purpose of disease prevention and control, an early warning system is urgently needed. Previous studies have showed significant relationships between climate variables, in particular, rainfall and temperature, and the temporal epidemic patterns of dengue cases. However, the transmission of the dengue fever is a complex interactive process that mostly understated the composite space-time effects of dengue fever. This study proposes developing a one-week ahead warning system of dengue fever epidemics in the southern Taiwan that considered nonlinear associations between weekly dengue cases and meteorological factors across space and time. The early warning system based on an integration of distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. The study identified the most significant meteorological measures including